WorldWideScience

Sample records for prognostic numerical model

  1. Modeling for Battery Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Goebel, Kai; Khasin, Michael; Hogge, Edward; Quach, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it is critical to monitor battery health as well performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL). To fulfil these needs, it is important to capture the battery's inherent characteristics as well as operational knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic algorithms. Several battery modeling methodologies have been developed in last few years as the understanding of underlying electrochemical mechanics has been advancing. The models can generally be classified as empirical models, electrochemical engineering models, multi-physics models, and molecular/atomist. Empirical models are based on fitting certain functions to past experimental data, without making use of any physicochemical principles. Electrical circuit equivalent models are an example of such empirical models. Electrochemical engineering models are typically continuum models that include electrochemical kinetics and transport phenomena. Each model has its advantages and disadvantages. The former type of model has the advantage of being computationally efficient, but has limited accuracy and robustness, due to the approximations used in developed model, and as a result of such approximations, cannot represent aging well. The latter type of model has the advantage of being very accurate, but is often computationally inefficient, having to solve complex sets of partial differential equations, and thus not suited well for online prognostic applications. In addition both multi-physics and atomist models are computationally expensive hence are even less suited to online application An electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries has been developed, that captures crucial electrochemical processes, captures effects of aging, is computationally efficient

  2. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  3. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

  4. Numerical Transducer Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriquez, Vicente Cutanda

    This thesis describes the development of a numerical model of the propagation of sound waves in fluids with viscous and thermal losses, with application to the simulation of acoustic transducers, in particular condenser microphones for measurement. The theoretical basis is presented, numerical...... manipulations are developed to satisfy the more complicated boundary conditions, and a model of a condenser microphone with a coupled membrane is developed. The model is tested against measurements of ¼ inch condenser microphones and analytical calculations. A detailed discussion of the results is given....

  5. A hybrid Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical scheme for solving prognostic equations in fluid dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kaas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new hybrid Eulerian–Lagrangian numerical scheme (HEL for solving prognostic equations in fluid dynamics is proposed. The basic idea is to use an Eulerian as well as a fully Lagrangian representation of all prognostic variables. The time step in Lagrangian space is obtained as a translation of irregularly spaced Lagrangian parcels along downstream trajectories. Tendencies due to other physical processes than advection are calculated in Eulerian space, interpolated, and added to the Lagrangian parcel values. A directionally biased mixing amongst neighboring Lagrangian parcels is introduced. The rate of mixing is proportional to the local deformation rate of the flow. The time stepping in Eulerian representation is achieved in two steps: first a mass-conserving Eulerian or semi-Lagrangian scheme is used to obtain a provisional forecast. This forecast is then nudged towards target values defined from the irregularly spaced Lagrangian parcel values. The nudging procedure is defined in such a way that mass conservation and shape preservation is ensured in Eulerian space. The HEL scheme has been designed to be accurate, multi-tracer efficient, mass conserving, and shape preserving. In Lagrangian space only physically based mixing takes place; i.e., the problem of artificial numerical mixing is avoided. This property is desirable in atmospheric chemical transport models since spurious numerical mixing can impact chemical concentrations severely. The properties of HEL are here verified in two-dimensional tests. These include deformational passive transport on the sphere, and simulations with a semi-implicit shallow water model including topography.

  6. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  7. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  8. Numerical model CCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodvarsson, G.S.; Lippmann, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    The computer program CCC (conduction-convection-consolidation), developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, solves numerically the heat and mass flow equations for a fully saturated medium, and computes one-dimensional consolidation of the simulated systems. The model employs the Integrated Finite Difference Method (IFDM) in discretizing the saturated medium and formulating the governing equations. The sets of equations are solved either by an iterative solution technique (old version) or an efficient sparse solver (new version). The deformation of the medium is calculated using the one-dimensional consolidation theory of Terzaghi. In this paper, the numerical code is described, validation examples given and areas of application discussed. Several example problems involving flow through fractured media are also presented

  9. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  10. Numerical model SMODERP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavka, P.; Jeřábek, J.; Strouhal, L.

    2016-12-01

    The contribution presents a numerical model SMODERP that is used for calculation and prediction of surface runoff and soil erosion from agricultural land. The physically based model includes the processes of infiltration (Phillips equation), surface runoff routing (kinematic wave based equation), surface retention, surface roughness and vegetation impact on runoff. The model is being developed at the Department of Irrigation, Drainage and Landscape Engineering, Civil Engineering Faculty, CTU in Prague. 2D version of the model was introduced in last years. The script uses ArcGIS system tools for data preparation. The physical relations are implemented through Python scripts. The main computing part is stand alone in numpy arrays. Flow direction is calculated by Steepest Descent algorithm and in multiple flow algorithm. Sheet flow is described by modified kinematic wave equation. Parameters for five different soil textures were calibrated on the set of hundred measurements performed on the laboratory and filed rainfall simulators. Spatially distributed models enable to estimate not only surface runoff but also flow in the rills. Development of the rills is based on critical shear stress and critical velocity. For modelling of the rills a specific sub model was created. This sub model uses Manning formula for flow estimation. Flow in the ditches and streams are also computed. Numerical stability of the model is controled by Courant criterion. Spatial scale is fixed. Time step is dynamic and depends on the actual discharge. The model is used in the framework of the project "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Main goal of the project is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The methodology will account for

  11. Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  12. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapsomaniki, E.; White, I.R.; Wood, A.M.; Thompson, S.G.; Feskens, E.J.M.; Kromhout, D.

    2012-01-01

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit)

  13. Model-based Prognostics with Concurrent Damage Progression Processes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches rely on physics-based models that describe the behavior of systems and their components. These models must account for the several...

  14. Comparison of two prognostic models for acute pulmonary embolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd-ElRahim Ibrahim Youssef

    2016-10-01

    Conclusion: (1 There is an agreement to great extent in risk stratification of APE patients by PESI and ESC prognostic models, where mortality rate is increased among high risk classes of both models, (2 ESC prognostic model is more accurate than PESI model in mortality prediction of APE patients especially in the high risk class, (3 echocardiographic evidence of RVD and elevated plasma BNP can help to identify APE patients at increased risk of adverse short-term outcome and (4 integration of RVD assessment by echocardiography and BNP to clinical findings improves the prognostic value of ESC model.

  15. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  16. Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Binh T. Pham

    2014-09-01

    In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of fault signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.

  17. A Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR) presented in this paper is an innovative solution for non-intrusively monitoring the state of health (SoH) and...

  18. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated....

  19. Model-based Prognostics with Fixed-lag Particle Filters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowl- edge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenom- ena in a...

  20. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

    OpenAIRE

    Rapsomaniki, E.; White, I.R.; Wood, A.M.; Thompson, S.G.; Ford, I.

    2012-01-01

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measure...

  1. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M

    2012-01-01

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit......) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk...... reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple...

  2. Numerical modelling of mine workings.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lightfoot, N

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available to cover most of what is required for a practising rock mechanics engineer to be able to use any of these five programs to solve practical mining problems. The chapters on specific programs discuss their individual strengths and weaknesses and highlight... and applications of numerical modelling in the context of the South African gold and platinum mining industries. This includes an example that utilises a number of different numerical 3 modelling programs to solve a single problem. This particular example...

  3. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  4. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  5. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    model has been developed which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines. The numerical model is based on a spectral wave model, a depth integrated flow model, a wave-phase resolving sediment transport description and a one-line shoreline model. First the theoretical...... of the feature and under predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the shoreline model predicts undulations lengths which are longer than the observed undulations. Lastly the thesis considers field measurements of undulations of the bottom bathymetry along an otherwise straight...... length of the shoreline undulations is determined in the linear regime using a shoreline stability analysis based on the numerical model. The analysis shows that the length of the undulations in the linear regime depends on the incoming wave conditions and on the coastal profile. For larger waves...

  6. Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

    2011-07-01

    Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

  7. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  8. Numerical models for differential problems

    CERN Document Server

    Quarteroni, Alfio

    2017-01-01

    In this text, we introduce the basic concepts for the numerical modelling of partial differential equations. We consider the classical elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic linear equations, but also the diffusion, transport, and Navier-Stokes equations, as well as equations representing conservation laws, saddle-point problems and optimal control problems. Furthermore, we provide numerous physical examples which underline such equations. We then analyze numerical solution methods based on finite elements, finite differences, finite volumes, spectral methods and domain decomposition methods, and reduced basis methods. In particular, we discuss the algorithmic and computer implementation aspects and provide a number of easy-to-use programs. The text does not require any previous advanced mathematical knowledge of partial differential equations: the absolutely essential concepts are reported in a preliminary chapter. It is therefore suitable for students of bachelor and master courses in scientific disciplines, an...

  9. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M; Thompson, Simon G

    2012-01-30

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple-study setting. The method is illustrated in the context of cardiovascular disease risk prediction using an individual participant data meta-analysis. We estimate the number of cardiovascular-disease-free life years gained when statin treatment is allocated based on a risk prediction model with five established risk factors instead of a model with just age, gender and region. We explore methodological issues associated with the multistudy design and show that cost-effectiveness comparisons based on the proposed methodology are robust against a range of modelling assumptions, including adjusting for competing risks. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Numerical simulation of Higgs models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaster, A.

    1995-10-01

    The SU(2) Higgs and the Schwinger model on the lattice were analysed. Numerical simulations of the SU(2) Higgs model were performed to study the finite temperature electroweak phase transition. With the help of the multicanonical method the distribution of an order parameter at the phase transition point was measured. This was used to obtain the order of the phase transition and the value of the interface tension with the histogram method. Numerical simulations were also performed at zero temperature to perform renormalization. The measured values for the Wilson loops were used to determine the static potential and from this the renormalized gauge coupling. The Schwinger model was simulated at different gauge couplings to analyse the properties of the Kaplan-Shamir fermions. The prediction that the mass parameter gets only multiplicative renormalization was tested and verified. (orig.)

  11. Application of Prognostic Mesoscale Modeling in the Southeast United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckley, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    A prognostic model is being used to provide regional forecasts for a variety of applications at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Emergency response dispersion models available at SRS use the space and time-dependent meteorological data provided by this model to supplement local and regional observations. Output from the model is also used locally to aid in forecasting at SRS, and regionally in providing forecasts of the potential time and location of hurricane landfall within the southeast United States

  12. Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, S.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

  13. A molecular prognostic model predicts esophageal squamous cell carcinoma prognosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Hui Cao

    Full Text Available Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC has the highest mortality rates in China. The 5-year survival rate of ESCC remains dismal despite improvements in treatments such as surgical resection and adjuvant chemoradiation, and current clinical staging approaches are limited in their ability to effectively stratify patients for treatment options. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to develop an immunohistochemistry-based prognostic model to improve clinical risk assessment for patients with ESCC.We developed a molecular prognostic model based on the combined expression of axis of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR, phosphorylated Specificity protein 1 (p-Sp1, and Fascin proteins. The presence of this prognostic model and associated clinical outcomes were analyzed for 130 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded esophageal curative resection specimens (generation dataset and validated using an independent cohort of 185 specimens (validation dataset.The expression of these three genes at the protein level was used to build a molecular prognostic model that was highly predictive of ESCC survival in both generation and validation datasets (P = 0.001. Regression analysis showed that this molecular prognostic model was strongly and independently predictive of overall survival (hazard ratio = 2.358 [95% CI, 1.391-3.996], P = 0.001 in generation dataset; hazard ratio = 1.990 [95% CI, 1.256-3.154], P = 0.003 in validation dataset. Furthermore, the predictive ability of these 3 biomarkers in combination was more robust than that of each individual biomarker.This technically simple immunohistochemistry-based molecular model accurately predicts ESCC patient survival and thus could serve as a complement to current clinical risk stratification approaches.

  14. Plasma modelling and numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dijk, J; Kroesen, G M W; Bogaerts, A

    2009-01-01

    Plasma modelling is an exciting subject in which virtually all physical disciplines are represented. Plasma models combine the electromagnetic, statistical and fluid dynamical theories that have their roots in the 19th century with the modern insights concerning the structure of matter that were developed throughout the 20th century. The present cluster issue consists of 20 invited contributions, which are representative of the state of the art in plasma modelling and numerical simulation. These contributions provide an in-depth discussion of the major theories and modelling and simulation strategies, and their applications to contemporary plasma-based technologies. In this editorial review, we introduce and complement those papers by providing a bird's eye perspective on plasma modelling and discussing the historical context in which it has surfaced. (editorial review)

  15. Systematic review of prognostic models in traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Ian

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a leading cause of death and disability world-wide. The ability to accurately predict patient outcome after TBI has an important role in clinical practice and research. Prognostic models are statistical models that combine two or more items of patient data to predict clinical outcome. They may improve predictions in TBI patients. Multiple prognostic models for TBI have accumulated for decades but none of them is widely used in clinical practice. The objective of this systematic review is to critically assess existing prognostic models for TBI Methods Studies that combine at least two variables to predict any outcome in patients with TBI were searched in PUBMED and EMBASE. Two reviewers independently examined titles, abstracts and assessed whether each met the pre-defined inclusion criteria. Results A total of 53 reports including 102 models were identified. Almost half (47% were derived from adult patients. Three quarters of the models included less than 500 patients. Most of the models (93% were from high income countries populations. Logistic regression was the most common analytical strategy to derived models (47%. In relation to the quality of the derivation models (n:66, only 15% reported less than 10% pf loss to follow-up, 68% did not justify the rationale to include the predictors, 11% conducted an external validation and only 19% of the logistic models presented the results in a clinically user-friendly way Conclusion Prognostic models are frequently published but they are developed from small samples of patients, their methodological quality is poor and they are rarely validated on external populations. Furthermore, they are not clinically practical as they are not presented to physicians in a user-friendly way. Finally because only a few are developed using populations from low and middle income countries, where most of trauma occurs, the generalizability to these setting is limited.

  16. Numerical model of thyroid counter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szuchta Maciej

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to develop a numerical model of spectrometric thyroid counter, which is used for the measurements of internal contamination by in vivo method. The modeled detector is used for a routine internal exposure monitoring procedure in the Radiation Protection Measurements Laboratory of National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ. This procedure may also be used for monitoring of occupationally exposed nuclear medicine personnel. The developed model was prepared using Monte Carlo code FLUKA 2011 ver. 2b.6 Apr-14 and FLAIR ver. 1.2-5 interface. It contains a scintillation NaI(Tl detector, the collimator and the thyroid water phantom with a reference source of iodine 131I. The geometry of the model was designed and a gamma energy spectrum of iodine 131I deposited in the detector was calculated.

  17. Comprehensive numerical modelling of tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, R.H.; Cohen, B.I.; Dubois, P.F.

    1991-01-01

    We outline a plan for the development of a comprehensive numerical model of tokamaks. The model would consist of a suite of independent, communicating packages describing the various aspects of tokamak performance (core and edge transport coefficients and profiles, heating, fueling, magnetic configuration, etc.) as well as extensive diagnostics. These codes, which may run on different computers, would be flexibly linked by a user-friendly shell which would allow run-time specification of packages and generation of pre- and post-processing functions, including workstation-based visualization of output. One package in particular, the calculation of core transport coefficients via gyrokinetic particle simulation, will become practical on the scale required for comprehensive modelling only with the advent of teraFLOP computers. Incremental effort at LLNL would be focused on gyrokinetic simulation and development of the shell

  18. Numerical modeling of foam flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheddadi, Ibrahim

    2010-01-01

    Liquid foam flows are involved in numerous applications, e.g. food and cosmetics industries, oil extraction, nuclear decontamination. Moreover, their study leads to fundamental knowledge: as it is easier to manipulate and analyse, foam is used as a model material to understand the flow of emulsions, polymers, pastes, or cell aggregates, all of which display both solid and liquid behaviour. Systematic experiments performed by Francois Graner et al. provide precise data that emphasize the non Newtonian properties of the foam. Meanwhile, Pierre Saramito proposed a visco-elasto-plastic continuous tensorial model, akin to predict the behaviour of the foam. The goal of this thesis is to understand this complex behaviour, using these two elements. We have built and validated a resolution algorithm based on a bidimensional finite elements methods. The numerical solutions are in excellent agreement with the spatial distribution of all measured quantities, and confirm the predictive capabilities of the model. The dominant parameters have been identified and we evidenced the fact that the viscous, elastic, and plastic contributions to the flow have to be treated simultaneously in a tensorial formalism. We provide a substantial contribution to the understanding of foams and open the path to realistic simulations of complex VEP flows for industrial applications. (author)

  19. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Saha

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the “curse of dimensionality”, i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for “well-designed” particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion and Li-Polymer batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

  20. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

  1. Numerical Modeling of Ocean Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Robert N.

    2007-01-01

    The modelling of ocean circulation is important not only for its own sake, but also in terms of the prediction of weather patterns and the effects of climate change. This book introduces the basic computational techniques necessary for all models of the ocean and atmosphere, and the conditions they must satisfy. It describes the workings of ocean models, the problems that must be solved in their construction, and how to evaluate computational results. Major emphasis is placed on examining ocean models critically, and determining what they do well and what they do poorly. Numerical analysis is introduced as needed, and exercises are included to illustrate major points. Developed from notes for a course taught in physical oceanography at the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, this book is ideal for graduate students of oceanography, geophysics, climatology and atmospheric science, and researchers in oceanography and atmospheric science. Features examples and critical examination of ocean modelling and results Demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches Includes exercises to illustrate major points and supplement mathematical and physical details

  2. Numerical modelling of fuel sprays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, C.

    1999-06-01

    The way the fuel is introduced into the combustion chamber is one of the most important parameters for the power output and the generation of emissions in the combustion of liquid fuels. The interaction between the turbulent gas flow field and the liquid fuel droplets, the vaporisation of them and the mixing of the gaseous fuel with the ambient air that are vital parameters in the combustion process. The use of numerical calculations is an important tool to better understand these complex interacting phenomena. This thesis reports on the numerical modelling of fuel sprays in non-reacting cases using an own developed spray module. The spray module uses the stochastic parcel method to represent the spray. The module was made in such manner that it could by coupled with different gas flow solver. Results obtained from four different gas flow solvers are presented in the thesis, including the use of two different kinds of turbulence models. In the first part the spray module is coupled with a k-{eta} based 2-D cylindrical gas flow solver. A thorough sensitivity analysis was performed on the spray and gas flow solver parameters, such as grid size dependence and sensitivity to initial values of k-{eta}. The results of the spray module were also compared to results from other spray codes, e.g. the well known KIVA code. In the second part of this thesis the spray was injected into a turbulent and fully developed crossflow studied. The spray module was attached to a LES (Large Eddy Simulation) based flow solvers enabling the study of the complex structures and time dependent phenomena involved in spray in crossflows. It was found that the spray performs an oscillatory motion and that the Strouhal number in the wake was about 0.1. Different spray breakup models were evaluated by comparing with experimental results 66 refs, 56 figs

  3. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  4. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  5. Physics based Degradation Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors under Electrical Overstress Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a physics based degradation modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors are critical components in...

  6. Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

  7. Numerical modeling of slow shocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winske, D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper reviews previous attempt and the present status of efforts to understand the structure of slow shocks by means of time dependent numerical calculations. Studies carried out using MHD or hybrid-kinetic codes have demonstrated qualitative agreement with theory. A number of unresolved issues related to hybrid simulations of the internal shock structure are discussed in some detail. 43 refs., 8 figs

  8. Numerical Modelling of Electrical Discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durán-Olivencia, F J; Pontiga, F; Castellanos, A

    2014-01-01

    The problem of the propagation of an electrical discharge between a spherical electrode and a plane has been solved by means of finite element methods (FEM) using a fluid approximation and assuming weak ionization and local equilibrium with the electric field. The numerical simulation of this type of problems presents the usual difficulties of convection-diffusion-reaction problems, in addition to those associated with the nonlinearities of the charged species velocities, the formation of steep gradients of the electric field and particle densities, and the coexistence of very different temporal scales. The effect of using different temporal discretizations for the numerical integration of the corresponding system of partial differential equations will be here investigated. In particular, the so-called θ-methods will be used, which allows to implement implicit, semi-explicit and fully explicit schemes in a simple way

  9. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by

  10. Using prognostic models in CLL to personalize approach to clinical care: Are we there yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Alain; Sandoval Sus, Jose; Sleiman, Elsa; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Awan, Farrukh T; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A

    2018-03-01

    Four decades ago, two staging systems were developed to help stratify CLL into different prognostic categories. These systems, the Rai and the Binet staging, depended entirely on abnormal exam findings and evidence of anemia and thrombocytopenia. Better understanding of biologic, genetic, and molecular characteristics of CLL have contributed to better appreciating its clinical heterogeneity. New prognostic models, the GCLLSG prognostic index and the CLL-IPI, emerged. They incorporate biologic and genetic information related to CLL and are capable of predicting survival outcomes and cases anticipated to need therapy earlier in the disease course. Accordingly, these newer models are helping develop better informed surveillance strategies and ultimately tailor treatment intensity according to presence (or lack thereof) of certain prognostic markers. This represents a step towards personalizing care of CLL patients. We anticipate that as more prognostic factors continue to be identified, the GCLLSG prognostic index and CLL-IPI models will undergo further revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. On prognostic models, artificial intelligence and censored observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, S S; Hamilton, P W; Hughes, J G; Bell, D A

    2001-03-01

    The development of prognostic models for assisting medical practitioners with decision making is not a trivial task. Models need to possess a number of desirable characteristics and few, if any, current modelling approaches based on statistical or artificial intelligence can produce models that display all these characteristics. The inability of modelling techniques to provide truly useful models has led to interest in these models being purely academic in nature. This in turn has resulted in only a very small percentage of models that have been developed being deployed in practice. On the other hand, new modelling paradigms are being proposed continuously within the machine learning and statistical community and claims, often based on inadequate evaluation, being made on their superiority over traditional modelling methods. We believe that for new modelling approaches to deliver true net benefits over traditional techniques, an evaluation centric approach to their development is essential. In this paper we present such an evaluation centric approach to developing extensions to the basic k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) paradigm. We use standard statistical techniques to enhance the distance metric used and a framework based on evidence theory to obtain a prediction for the target example from the outcome of the retrieved exemplars. We refer to this new k-NN algorithm as Censored k-NN (Ck-NN). This reflects the enhancements made to k-NN that are aimed at providing a means for handling censored observations within k-NN.

  12. Numerical modelling in material physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proville, L.

    2004-12-01

    The author first briefly presents his past research activities: investigation of a dislocation sliding in solid solution by molecular dynamics, modelling of metal film growth by phase field and Monte Carlo kinetics, phase field model for surface self-organisation, phase field model for the Al 3 Zr alloy, calculation of anharmonic photons, mobility of bipolarons in superconductors. Then, he more precisely reports the mesoscopic modelling in phase field, and some atomistic modelling (dislocation sliding, Monte Carlo simulation of metal surface growth, anharmonic network optical spectrum modelling)

  13. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  14. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muhammad Zaka Emad

    2017-07-24

    Jul 24, 2017 ... conditions. This paper discusses a numerical modelling strategy for modelling mine backfill material. The .... placed in an ore pass that leads the ore to the ore bin and crusher, from ... 1 year, depending on the mine plan.

  15. Measures to assess the prognostic ability of the stratified Cox proportional hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    (Tybjaerg-Hansen, A.) The Fibrinogen Studies Collaboration.The Copenhagen City Heart Study; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Many measures have been proposed to summarize the prognostic ability of the Cox proportional hazards (CPH) survival model, although none is universally accepted for general use. By contrast, little work has been done to summarize the prognostic ability of the stratified CPH model; such measures...

  16. Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haniffa, Rashan; Mukaka, Mavuto; Munasinghe, Sithum Bandara; de Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Jayasinghe, Kosala Saroj Amarasiri; Beane, Abi; de Keizer, Nicolette; Dondorp, Arjen M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Current critical care prognostic models are predominantly developed in high-income countries (HICs) and may not be feasible in intensive care units (ICUs) in lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing prognostic models cannot be applied without validation in LMICs as the

  17. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  18. Numerical models of planetary dynamos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Roberts, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    We describe a nonlinear, axisymmetric, spherical-shell model of planetary dynamos. This intermediate-type dynamo model requires a prescribed helicity field (the alpha effect) and a prescribed buoyancy force or thermal wind (the omega effect) and solves for the axisymmetric time-dependent magnetic and velocity fields. Three very different time dependent solutions are obtained from different prescribed sets of alpha and omega fields

  19. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  20. Numerical Modeling of Microelectrochemical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adesokan, Bolaji James

    incorporates the finite size of ionic species in the transport equation. The model presents a more appropriate boundary conditions which describe the modified Butler-Volmer reaction kinetics and account for the surface capacitance of the thin electric double layer. We also have found analytical solution...... at the electrode in a microelectrochemical system. In our analysis, we account for the finite size properties of ions in the mass and the charge transport of ionic species in an electrochemical system. This term characterizes the saturation of the ionic species close to the electrode surface. We then analyse......The PhD dissertation is concerned with mathematical modeling and simulation of electrochemical systems. The first three chapters of the thesis consist of the introductory part, the model development chapter and the chapter on the summary of the main results. The remaining three chapters report...

  1. Mathematical and Numerical Modeling in Maritime Geomechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Martín Stickle

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical and numerical framework to model the foundation of marine offshore structures is presented. The theoretical model is composed by a system of partial differential equations describing coupling between seabed solid skeleton and pore fluids (water, air, oil,... combined with a system of ordinary differential equations describing the specific constitutive relation of the seabed soil skeleton. Once the theoretical model is described, the finite element numerical procedure to achieve an approximate solution of the overning equations is outlined. In order to validate the proposed theoretical and numerical framework the seaward tilt mechanism induced by the action of breaking waves over a vertical breakwater is numerically reproduced. The results numerically attained are in agreement with the main conclusions drawn from the literature associated with this failure mechanism.

  2. Numerical modelling of reflood processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glynn, D.R.; Rhodes, N.; Tatchell, D.G.

    1983-01-01

    The use of a detailed computer model to investigate the effects of grid size and the choice of wall-to-fluid heat-transfer correlations on the predictions obtained for reflooding of a vertical heated channel is described. The model employs equations for the momentum and enthalpy of vapour and liquid and hence accounts for both thermal non-equilibrium and slip between the phases. Empirical correlations are used to calculate interphase and wall-to-fluid friction and heat-transfer as functions of flow regime and local conditions. The empirical formulae have remained fixed with the exception of the wall-to-fluid heat-transfer correlations. These have been varied according to the practices adopted in other computer codes used to model reflood, namely REFLUX, RELAP and TRAC. Calculations have been performed to predict the CSNI standard problem number 7, and the results are compared with experiment. It is shown that the results are substantially grid-independent, and that the choice of correlation has a significant influence on the general flow behaviour, the rate of quenching and on the maximum cladding temperature predicted by the model. It is concluded that good predictions of reflooding rates can be obtained with particular correlation sets. (author)

  3. Development Of A Multivariate Prognostic Model For Pain And Activity Limitation In People With Low Back Disorders Receiving Physiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Jon J; Richards BPhysio, Matt C; Surkitt BPhysio, Luke D; Chan BPhysio, Alexander Yp; Slater, Sarah L; Taylor, Nicholas F; Hahne, Andrew J

    2018-05-28

    To identify predictors for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation in patients with early persistent low back disorders. Prospective inception cohort study; Setting: primary care private physiotherapy clinics in Melbourne, Australia. 300 adults aged 18-65 years with low back and/or referred leg pain of ≥6-weeks and ≤6-months duration. Not applicable. Numerical rating scales for back pain and leg pain as well as the Oswestry Disability Scale. Prognostic factors included sociodemographics, treatment related factors, subjective/physical examination, subgrouping factors and standardized questionnaires. Univariate analysis followed by generalized estimating equations were used to develop a multivariate prognostic model for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation. Fifty-eight prognostic factors progressed to the multivariate stage where 15 showed significant (pduration, high multifidus tone, clinically determined inflammation, higher back and leg pain severity, lower lifting capacity, lower work capacity and higher pain drawing percentage coverage). The preliminary model identifying predictors of low back disorders explained up to 37% of the variance in outcome. This study evaluated a comprehensive range of prognostic factors reflective of both the biomedical and psychosocial domains of low back disorders. The preliminary multivariate model requires further validation before being considered for clinical use. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  5. Recent advances in numerical modeling of detonations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mader, C.L.

    1986-12-01

    Three lectures were presented on recent advances in numerical modeling detonations entitled (1) Jet Initiation and Penetration of Explosives; (2) Explosive Desensitization by Preshocking; (3) Inert Metal-Loaded Explosives.

  6. A numerical reference model for themomechanical subduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinquis, Matthieu; Chemia, Zurab; Tosi, Nicola

    2010-01-01

    Building an advanced numerical model of subduction requires choosing values for various geometrical parameters and material properties, among others, the initial lithosphere thicknesses, representative lithological types and their mechanical and thermal properties, rheologies, initial temperature...

  7. Other relevant numerical modelling papers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, M.

    1989-01-01

    The ocean modelling is a rapidly evolving science and a large number of results have been published. Several categories of papers are of particular interest for this review: the papers published by the international atomic institutions, such as the NEA (for the CRESP or Subseabed Programs), the IAEA (for example the Safety Series, the Technical Report Series or the TECDOC), and the ICRP, and the papers concerned by more fundamental research, which are published in specific scientific literature. This paper aims to list some of the most relevant publications for the CRESP purposes. It means by no way to be exhaustive, but informative on the incontestable progress recently achieved in that field. One should note that some of these papers are so recent that their final version has not yet been published

  8. Numerical modelling of elastic space tethers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansen, Kristian Uldall; Palmer, P. L.; Roberts, R. M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper the importance of the ill-posedness of the classical, non-dissipative massive tether model on an orbiting tether system is studied numerically. The computations document that via the regularisation of bending resistance a more reliable numerical integrator can be produced. Furthermo....... It is also shown that on the slow manifold the dynamics of the satellites are well-approximated by the finite dimensional slack-spring model....

  9. Numerical models of groundwater flow and transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konikow, L.F.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter reviews the state-of-the-art in deterministic modeling of groundwater flow and transport processes, which can be used for interpretation of isotope data through groundwater flow analyses. Numerical models which are available for this purpose are described and their applications to complex field problems are discussed. The theoretical bases of deterministic modeling are summarized, and advantages and limitations of numerical models are described. The selection of models for specific applications and their calibration procedures are described, and results of a few illustrative case study type applications are provided. (author). 145 refs, 17 figs, 2 tabs

  10. Numerical models of groundwater flow and transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konikow, L F [Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)

    1996-10-01

    This chapter reviews the state-of-the-art in deterministic modeling of groundwater flow and transport processes, which can be used for interpretation of isotope data through groundwater flow analyses. Numerical models which are available for this purpose are described and their applications to complex field problems are discussed. The theoretical bases of deterministic modeling are summarized, and advantages and limitations of numerical models are described. The selection of models for specific applications and their calibration procedures are described, and results of a few illustrative case study type applications are provided. (author). 145 refs, 17 figs, 2 tabs.

  11. Analytical and numerical modeling of sandbanks dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Idier, Deborah; Astruc, Dominique

    2003-01-01

    Linear and nonlinear behavior of large-scale underwater bedform patterns like sandbanks are studied using linear stability analysis and numerical modeling. The model is based on depth-integrated hydrodynamics equations with a quadratic bottom friction law and a bed load sediment transport model

  12. Numerical 3-D Modelling of Overflows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben; Nielsen, L.; Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    -dimensional so-called Volume of Fluid Models (VOF-models) based on the full Navier-Stokes equations (named NS3 and developed by DHI Water & Environment) As a general conclusion, the two numerical models show excellent results when compared with measurements. However, considerable errors occur when...

  13. Improvement of PSA Models Using Monitoring and Prognostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, Gyun Young; Chang, Yoon Suk; Kim, Hyun Dae [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has performed a significant role for quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerability and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. Especially, it has been widely used as the core methodology for Risk-Informed Applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still 'conservative' aspects. The sources for the conservatism come from the assumption of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (SDP) utilizing massive database and information technology is worthwhile to be highlighted in terms of the capability of alleviating the conservatism in the conventional PSA. This paper provides enabling techniques to concretize the method to provide time- and condition-dependent risk by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and failure probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and how the IE frequency for Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed PSA model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of Core Damage Frequency (CDF) in terms of time and operational conditions.

  14. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1994-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMs) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMs has arisen, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of introducing prognostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the longwave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds becomes stronger because of more realistic tropical convection

  15. Plaque Brachytherapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Vision Prognostication Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Niloufer; Khan, Mohammad K.; Bena, James; Macklis, Roger; Singh, Arun D.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To generate a vision prognostication model after plaque brachytherapy for uveal melanoma. Methods and Materials: All patients with primary single ciliary body or choroidal melanoma treated with iodine-125 or ruthenium-106 plaque brachytherapy between January 1, 2005, and June 30, 2010, were included. The primary endpoint was loss of visual acuity. Only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/50 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/50 at the end of the study, and only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/200 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/200 at the end of the study. Factors analyzed were sex, age, cataracts, diabetes, tumor size (basal dimension and apical height), tumor location, and radiation dose to the tumor apex, fovea, and optic disc. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the influence of baseline patient factors on vision loss. Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank analysis) were used to estimate freedom from vision loss. Results: Of 189 patients, 92% (174) were alive as of February 1, 2011. At presentation, visual acuity was better than or equal to 20/50 and better than or equal to 20/200 in 108 and 173 patients, respectively. Of these patients, 44.4% (48) had post-treatment visual acuity of worse than 20/50 and 25.4% (44) had post-treatment visual acuity worse than 20/200. By multivariable analysis, increased age (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.01 [1.00-1.03], P=.05), increase in tumor height (HR of 1.35 [1.22-1.48], P<.001), and a greater total dose to the fovea (HR of 1.01 [1.00-1.01], P<.001) were predictive of vision loss. This information was used to develop a nomogram predictive of vision loss. Conclusions: By providing a means to predict vision loss at 3 years after treatment, our vision prognostication model can be an important tool for patient selection and treatment counseling.

  16. Plaque Brachytherapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Vision Prognostication Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Niloufer [Department of Radiation Oncology, Taussig Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Khan, Mohammad K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Bena, James [Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Macklis, Roger [Department of Radiation Oncology, Taussig Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Singh, Arun D., E-mail: singha@ccf.org [Department of Ophthalmic Oncology, Cole Eye Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To generate a vision prognostication model after plaque brachytherapy for uveal melanoma. Methods and Materials: All patients with primary single ciliary body or choroidal melanoma treated with iodine-125 or ruthenium-106 plaque brachytherapy between January 1, 2005, and June 30, 2010, were included. The primary endpoint was loss of visual acuity. Only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/50 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/50 at the end of the study, and only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/200 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/200 at the end of the study. Factors analyzed were sex, age, cataracts, diabetes, tumor size (basal dimension and apical height), tumor location, and radiation dose to the tumor apex, fovea, and optic disc. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the influence of baseline patient factors on vision loss. Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank analysis) were used to estimate freedom from vision loss. Results: Of 189 patients, 92% (174) were alive as of February 1, 2011. At presentation, visual acuity was better than or equal to 20/50 and better than or equal to 20/200 in 108 and 173 patients, respectively. Of these patients, 44.4% (48) had post-treatment visual acuity of worse than 20/50 and 25.4% (44) had post-treatment visual acuity worse than 20/200. By multivariable analysis, increased age (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.01 [1.00-1.03], P=.05), increase in tumor height (HR of 1.35 [1.22-1.48], P<.001), and a greater total dose to the fovea (HR of 1.01 [1.00-1.01], P<.001) were predictive of vision loss. This information was used to develop a nomogram predictive of vision loss. Conclusions: By providing a means to predict vision loss at 3 years after treatment, our vision prognostication model can be an important tool for patient selection and treatment counseling.

  17. Ferrofluids: Modeling, numerical analysis, and scientific computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas, Ignacio

    This dissertation presents some developments in the Numerical Analysis of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describing the behavior of ferrofluids. The most widely accepted PDE model for ferrofluids is the Micropolar model proposed by R.E. Rosensweig. The Micropolar Navier-Stokes Equations (MNSE) is a subsystem of PDEs within the Rosensweig model. Being a simplified version of the much bigger system of PDEs proposed by Rosensweig, the MNSE are a natural starting point of this thesis. The MNSE couple linear velocity u, angular velocity w, and pressure p. We propose and analyze a first-order semi-implicit fully-discrete scheme for the MNSE, which decouples the computation of the linear and angular velocities, is unconditionally stable and delivers optimal convergence rates under assumptions analogous to those used for the Navier-Stokes equations. Moving onto the much more complex Rosensweig's model, we provide a definition (approximation) for the effective magnetizing field h, and explain the assumptions behind this definition. Unlike previous definitions available in the literature, this new definition is able to accommodate the effect of external magnetic fields. Using this definition we setup the system of PDEs coupling linear velocity u, pressure p, angular velocity w, magnetization m, and magnetic potential ϕ We show that this system is energy-stable and devise a numerical scheme that mimics the same stability property. We prove that solutions of the numerical scheme always exist and, under certain simplifying assumptions, that the discrete solutions converge. A notable outcome of the analysis of the numerical scheme for the Rosensweig's model is the choice of finite element spaces that allow the construction of an energy-stable scheme. Finally, with the lessons learned from Rosensweig's model, we develop a diffuse-interface model describing the behavior of two-phase ferrofluid flows and present an energy-stable numerical scheme for this model. For a

  18. Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

    2018-04-11

    Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

  19. Comparing numerically exact and modelled static friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krengel Dominik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently there exists no mechanically consistent “numerically exact” implementation of static and dynamic Coulomb friction for general soft particle simulations with arbitrary contact situations in two or three dimension, but only along one dimension. We outline a differential-algebraic equation approach for a “numerically exact” computation of friction in two dimensions and compare its application to the Cundall-Strack model in some test cases.

  20. Reactor Thermal Hydraulic Numerical Calculation And Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duong Ngoc Hai; Dang The Ba

    2008-01-01

    In the paper the results of analysis of thermal hydraulic state models using the numerical codes such as COOLOD, EUREKA and RELAP5 for simulation of the reactor thermal hydraulic states are presented. The calculations, analyses of reactor thermal hydraulic state and safety were implemented using different codes. The received numerical results, which were compared each to other, to experiment measurement of Dalat (Vietnam) research reactor and published results, show their appropriateness and capacity for analyses of different appropriate cases. (author)

  1. Numerical Modeling of Ablation Heat Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Mark E.; Laker, Travis S.; Walker, David T.

    2013-01-01

    A unique numerical method has been developed for solving one-dimensional ablation heat transfer problems. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the method, along with detailed derivations of the governing equations. This methodology supports solutions for traditional ablation modeling including such effects as heat transfer, material decomposition, pyrolysis gas permeation and heat exchange, and thermochemical surface erosion. The numerical scheme utilizes a control-volume approach with a variable grid to account for surface movement. This method directly supports implementation of nontraditional models such as material swelling and mechanical erosion, extending capabilities for modeling complex ablation phenomena. Verifications of the numerical implementation are provided using analytical solutions, code comparisons, and the method of manufactured solutions. These verifications are used to demonstrate solution accuracy and proper error convergence rates. A simple demonstration of a mechanical erosion (spallation) model is also provided to illustrate the unique capabilities of the method.

  2. Numerical methods and modelling for engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Khoury, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This textbook provides a step-by-step approach to numerical methods in engineering modelling. The authors provide a consistent treatment of the topic, from the ground up, to reinforce for students that numerical methods are a set of mathematical modelling tools which allow engineers to represent real-world systems and compute features of these systems with a predictable error rate. Each method presented addresses a specific type of problem, namely root-finding, optimization, integral, derivative, initial value problem, or boundary value problem, and each one encompasses a set of algorithms to solve the problem given some information and to a known error bound. The authors demonstrate that after developing a proper model and understanding of the engineering situation they are working on, engineers can break down a model into a set of specific mathematical problems, and then implement the appropriate numerical methods to solve these problems. Uses a “building-block” approach, starting with simpler mathemati...

  3. On the Hughes model and numerical aspects

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2017-01-05

    We study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [11] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori estimates for the solutions. Second, we study radial solutions and identify a shock formation mechanism. Third, we illustrate the existence of congestion, the breakdown of the model, and the trend to the equilibrium. Finally, we propose a new numerical method and consider two examples.

  4. On the Hughes model and numerical aspects

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Machado Velho, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    We study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [11] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori

  5. Degradations analysis and aging modeling for health assessment and prognostics of PEMFC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2016-01-01

    Applying prognostics to Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) stacks is a good solution to help taking actions extending their lifetime. However, it requires a great understanding of the degradation mechanisms and failures occurring within the stack. This task is not simple when applied to a PEMFC due to the different levels (stack - cells - components), the different scales and the multiple causes that lead to degradation. To overcome this problem, this work proposes a methodology dedicated to the setting of a framework and a modeling of the aging for prognostics. This methodology is based on a deep literature review and degradation analyses of PEMFC stacks. This analysis allows defining a proper vocabulary dedicated to PEMFC's prognostics and health management and a clear limited framework to perform prognostics. Then the degradations review is used to select critical components within the stack, and to define their critical failure mechanisms thanks the proposal of new fault trees. The impact of these critical components and mechanisms on the power loss during aging is included to the model for prognostics. This model is finally validated on four datasets with different mission profiles both for health assessment and prognostics. - Highlights: • A proper framework to perform PHM, particularly prognostics, of PEMFC is proposed. • A degradation analysis is performed. • A completely new model of PEMFC degradation is proposed. • SOH estimation is performed with very high coefficients of determination.

  6. Enhancement of Physics-of-Failure Prognostic Models with System Level Features

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kacprzynski, Gregory

    2002-01-01

    .... The novelty in the current prognostic tool development is that predictions are made through the fusion of stochastic physics-of-failure models, relevant system or component level health monitoring...

  7. Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri; Pryds, Nini; Thorborg, Jesper

    Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes comprises a thorough presentation of the basic phenomena that need to be addressed in numerical simulation of casting processes. The main philosophy of the book is to present the topics in view of their physical meaning, whenever possible......, rather than relying strictly on mathematical formalism. The book, aimed both at the researcher and the practicing engineer, as well as the student, is naturally divided into four parts. Part I (Chapters 1-3) introduces the fundamentals of modelling in a 1-dimensional framework. Part II (Chapter 4...

  8. Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.

  9. Basset force in numerical models of saltation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lukerchenko, Nikolay; Dolanský, Jindřich; Vlasák, Pavel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 4 (2012), s. 277-287 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/09/1718 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : basset force * bed load transport * numerical model * particle-bed collision Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics Impact factor: 0.653, year: 2012

  10. Thin sheet numerical modelling of continental collision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jimenez-Munt, I.; Garcia-Gastellanos, D.; Fernandez, M.

    2005-01-01

    We study the effects of incorporating surface mass transport and the gravitational potential energy of both crust and lithospheric mantle to the viscous thin sheet approach. Recent 2D (cross-section) numerical models show that surface erosion and sediment transport can play a major role in shaping

  11. Numerical modelling of steel arc welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamide, M.

    2008-07-01

    Welding is a highly used assembly technique. Welding simulation software would give access to residual stresses and information about the weld's microstructure, in order to evaluate the mechanical resistance of a weld. It would also permit to evaluate the process feasibility when complex geometrical components are to be made, and to optimize the welding sequences in order to minimize defects. This work deals with the numerical modelling of arc welding process of steels. After describing the industrial context and the state of art, the models implemented in TransWeld (software developed at CEMEF) are presented. The set of macroscopic equations is followed by a discussion on their numerical implementation. Then, the theory of re-meshing and our adaptive anisotropic re-meshing strategy are explained. Two welding metal addition techniques are investigated and are compared in terms of the joint size and transient temperature and stresses. The accuracy of the finite element model is evaluated based on experimental results and the results of the analytical solution. Comparative analysis between experimental and numerical results allows the assessment of the ability of the numerical code to predict the thermomechanical and metallurgical response of the welded structure. The models limitations and the phenomena identified during this study are finally discussed and permit to define interesting orientations for future developments. (author)

  12. Numerical modeling of magma-repository interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhove, Onno

    2001-01-01

    This report explains the numerical programs behind a comprehensive modeling effort of magma-repository interactions. Magma-repository interactions occur when a magma dike with high-volatile content magma ascends through surrounding rock and encounters a tunnel or drift filled with either a magmatic

  13. Graphical interpretation of numerical model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drewes, D.R.

    1979-01-01

    Computer software has been developed to produce high quality graphical displays of data from a numerical grid model. The code uses an existing graphical display package (DISSPLA) and overcomes some of the problems of both line-printer output and traditional graphics. The software has been designed to be flexible enough to handle arbitrarily placed computation grids and a variety of display requirements

  14. Development and validation of logistic prognostic models by predefined SAS-macros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziegler, Christoph

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In medical decision making about therapies or diagnostic procedures in the treatment of patients the prognoses of the course or of the magnitude of diseases plays a relevant role. Beside of the subjective attitude of the clinician mathematical models can help in providing such prognoses. Such models are mostly multivariate regression models. In the case of a dichotomous outcome the logistic model will be applied as the standard model. In this paper we will describe SAS-macros for the development of such a model, for examination of the prognostic performance, and for model validation. The rational for this developmental approach of a prognostic modelling and the description of the macros can only given briefly in this paper. Much more details are given in. These 14 SAS-macros are a tool for setting up the whole process of deriving a prognostic model. Especially the possibility of validating the model by a standardized software tool gives an opportunity, which is not used in general in published prognostic models. Therefore, this can help to develop new models with good prognostic performance for use in medical applications.

  15. Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

  16. Numerical modelling in non linear fracture mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viggo Tvergaard

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Some numerical studies of crack propagation are based on using constitutive models that accountfor damage evolution in the material. When a critical damage value has been reached in a materialpoint, it is natural to assume that this point has no more carrying capacity, as is done numerically in the elementvanish technique. In the present review this procedure is illustrated for micromechanically based materialmodels, such as a ductile failure model that accounts for the nucleation and growth of voids to coalescence, and a model for intergranular creep failure with diffusive growth of grain boundary cavities leading to micro-crack formation. The procedure is also illustrated for low cycle fatigue, based on continuum damage mechanics. In addition, the possibility of crack growth predictions for elastic-plastic solids using cohesive zone models to represent the fracture process is discussed.

  17. Building prognostic models for breast cancer patients using clinical variables and hundreds of gene expression signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yufeng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple breast cancer gene expression profiles have been developed that appear to provide similar abilities to predict outcome and may outperform clinical-pathologic criteria; however, the extent to which seemingly disparate profiles provide additive prognostic information is not known, nor do we know whether prognostic profiles perform equally across clinically defined breast cancer subtypes. We evaluated whether combining the prognostic powers of standard breast cancer clinical variables with a large set of gene expression signatures could improve on our ability to predict patient outcomes. Methods Using clinical-pathological variables and a collection of 323 gene expression "modules", including 115 previously published signatures, we build multivariate Cox proportional hazards models using a dataset of 550 node-negative systemically untreated breast cancer patients. Models predictive of pathological complete response (pCR to neoadjuvant chemotherapy were also built using this approach. Results We identified statistically significant prognostic models for relapse-free survival (RFS at 7 years for the entire population, and for the subgroups of patients with ER-positive, or Luminal tumors. Furthermore, we found that combined models that included both clinical and genomic parameters improved prognostication compared with models with either clinical or genomic variables alone. Finally, we were able to build statistically significant combined models for pathological complete response (pCR predictions for the entire population. Conclusions Integration of gene expression signatures and clinical-pathological factors is an improved method over either variable type alone. Highly prognostic models could be created when using all patients, and for the subset of patients with lymph node-negative and ER-positive breast cancers. Other variables beyond gene expression and clinical-pathological variables, like gene mutation status or DNA

  18. Numerical modeling of fires on gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yang; Jianbo Lai; Lu Liu

    2011-01-01

    When natural gas is released through a hole on a high-pressure pipeline, it disperses in the atmosphere as a jet. A jet fire will occur when the leaked gas meets an ignition source. To estimate the dangerous area, the shape and size of the fire must be known. The evolution of the jet fire in air is predicted by using a finite-volume procedure to solve the flow equations. The model is three-dimensional, elliptic and calculated by using a compressibility corrected version of the k - ξ turbulence model, and also includes a probability density function/laminar flamelet model of turbulent non-premixed combustion process. Radiation heat transfer is described using an adaptive version of the discrete transfer method. The model is compared with the experiments about a horizontal jet fire in a wind tunnel in the literature with success. The influence of wind and jet velocity on the fire shape has been investigated. And a correlation based on numerical results for predicting the stoichiometric flame length is proposed. - Research highlights: → We developed a model to predict the evolution of turbulent jet diffusion flames. → Measurements of temperature distributions match well with the numerical predictions. → A correlation has been proposed to predict the stoichiometric flame length. → Buoyancy effects are higher in the numerical results. → The radiative heat loss is bigger in the experimental results.

  19. Numerical Modelling Of Pumpkin Balloon Instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, D.

    Tensys have been involved in the numerical formfinding and load analysis of architectural stressed membrane structures for 15 years. They have recently broadened this range of activities into the `lighter than air' field with significant involvement in aerostat and heavy-lift hybrid airship design. Since early 2004 they have been investigating pumpkin balloon instability on behalf of the NASA ULDB programme. These studies are undertaken using inTENS, an in-house finite element program suite based upon the Dynamic Relaxation solution method and developed especially for the non-linear analysis and patterning of membrane structures. The paper describes the current state of an investigation that started with a numerical simulation of the lobed cylinder problem first studied by Calladine. The influence of material properties and local geometric deformation on stability is demonstrated. A number of models of complete pumpkin balloons have then been established, including a 64-gore balloon with geometry based upon Julian Nott's Endeavour. This latter clefted dramatically upon initial inflation, a phenomenon that has been reproduced in the numerical model. Ongoing investigations include the introduction of membrane contact modelling into inTENS and correlation studies with the series of large-scale ULDB models currently in preparation.

  20. Numerical Modeling of Piezoelectric Transducers Using Physical Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cappon, H.; Keesman, K.J.

    2012-01-01

    Design of ultrasonic equipment is frequently facilitated with numerical models. These numerical models, however, need a calibration step, because usually not all characteristics of the materials used are known. Characterization of material properties combined with numerical simulations and

  1. Numerical modeling in materials science and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Rappaz, Michel; Deville, Michel

    2003-01-01

    This book introduces the concepts and methodologies related to the modelling of the complex phenomena occurring in materials processing. After a short reminder of conservation laws and constitutive relationships, the authors introduce the main numerical methods: finite differences, finite volumes and finite elements. These techniques are developed in three main chapters of the book that tackle more specific problems: phase transformation, solid mechanics and fluid flow. The two last chapters treat inverse methods to obtain the boundary conditions or the material properties and stochastic methods for microstructural simulation. This book is intended for undergraduate and graduate students in materials science and engineering, mechanical engineering and physics and for engineering professionals or researchers who want to get acquainted with numerical simulation to model and compute materials processing.

  2. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  3. Infrared radiation parameterizations in numerical climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Kratz, David P.; Ridgway, William

    1991-01-01

    This study presents various approaches to parameterizing the broadband transmission functions for utilization in numerical climate models. One-parameter scaling is applied to approximate a nonhomogeneous path with an equivalent homogeneous path, and the diffuse transmittances are either interpolated from precomputed tables or fit by analytical functions. Two-parameter scaling is applied to parameterizing the carbon dioxide and ozone transmission functions in both the lower and middle atmosphere. Parameterizations are given for the nitrous oxide and methane diffuse transmission functions.

  4. Advanced Numerical Model for Irradiated Concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giorla, Alain B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-03-01

    In this report, we establish a numerical model for concrete exposed to irradiation to address these three critical points. The model accounts for creep in the cement paste and its coupling with damage, temperature and relative humidity. The shift in failure mode with the loading rate is also properly represented. The numerical model for creep has been validated and calibrated against different experiments in the literature [Wittmann, 1970, Le Roy, 1995]. Results from a simplified model are shown to showcase the ability of numerical homogenization to simulate irradiation effects in concrete. In future works, the complete model will be applied to the analysis of the irradiation experiments of Elleuch et al. [1972] and Kelly et al. [1969]. This requires a careful examination of the experimental environmental conditions as in both cases certain critical information are missing, including the relative humidity history. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to provide lower and upper bounds of the concrete expansion under irradiation, and check if the scatter in the simulated results matches the one found in experiments. The numerical and experimental results will be compared in terms of expansion and loss of mechanical stiffness and strength. Both effects should be captured accordingly by the model to validate it. Once the model has been validated on these two experiments, it can be applied to simulate concrete from nuclear power plants. To do so, the materials used in these concrete must be as well characterized as possible. The main parameters required are the mechanical properties of each constituent in the concrete (aggregates, cement paste), namely the elastic modulus, the creep properties, the tensile and compressive strength, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the drying shrinkage. These can be either measured experimentally, estimated from the initial composition in the case of cement paste, or back-calculated from mechanical tests on concrete. If some

  5. Numeric pathologic lymph node classification shows prognostic superiority to topographic pN classification in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugawara, Kotaro; Yamashita, Hiroharu; Uemura, Yukari; Mitsui, Takashi; Yagi, Koichi; Nishida, Masato; Aikou, Susumu; Mori, Kazuhiko; Nomura, Sachiyo; Seto, Yasuyuki

    2017-10-01

    The current eighth tumor node metastasis lymph node category pathologic lymph node staging system for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is based solely on the number of metastatic nodes and does not consider anatomic distribution. We aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system (numeric-based) compared with the 11th Japan Esophageal Society (topography-based) pathologic lymph node staging system in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 289 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy with extended lymph node dissection during the period from January 2006 through June 2016. We compared discrimination abilities for overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and cancer-specific survival between these 2 staging systems using C-statistics. The median number of dissected and metastatic nodes was 61 (25% to 75% quartile range, 45 to 79) and 1 (25% to 75% quartile range, 0 to 3), respectively. The eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system had a greater ability to accurately determine overall survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.69, 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.76; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.65, 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.71; P = .014) and cancer-specific survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.87; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.72, 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.80; P = .018). Rates of total recurrence rose as the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node stage increased, while stratification of patients according to the topography-based node classification system was not feasible. Numeric nodal staging is an essential tool for stratifying the oncologic outcomes of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma even in the cohort in which adequate

  6. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  7. Numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kuldeep; Li, Chiping; Kailasanath, K.; Ndubizu, Chuka; Ananth, Ramagopal; Tatem, P. A.

    1999-12-01

    The focus of this paper is on numerical modelling of methanol liquid pool fires. A mathematical model is first developed to describe the evaporation and burning of a two-dimensional or axisymmetric pool containing pure liquid methanol. Then, the complete set of unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for reactive flows are solved in the gas phase to describe the convection of the fuel gases away from the pool surface, diffusion of the gases into the surrounding air and the oxidation of the fuel into product species. Heat transfer into the liquid pool and the metal container through conduction, convection and radiation are modelled by solving a modified form of the energy equation. Clausius-Clapeyron relationships are invoked to model the evaporation rate of a two-dimensional pool of pure liquid methanol. The governing equations along with appropriate boundary and interface conditions are solved using the flux-corrected transport algorithm. Numerical results exhibit a flame structure that compares well with experimental observations. Temperature profiles and burning rates were found to compare favourably with experimental data from single- and three-compartment laboratory burners. The model predicts a puffing frequency of approximately 12 Hz for a 1 cm diameter methanol pool in the absence of any air co-flow. It is also observed that increasing the air co-flow velocity helps in stabilizing the diffusion flame, by pushing the vortical structures away from the flame region.

  8. A Numerical Model for Trickle Bed Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Propp, Richard M.; Colella, Phillip; Crutchfield, William Y.; Day, Marcus S.

    2000-12-01

    Trickle bed reactors are governed by equations of flow in porous media such as Darcy's law and the conservation of mass. Our numerical method for solving these equations is based on a total-velocity splitting, sequential formulation which leads to an implicit pressure equation and a semi-implicit mass conservation equation. We use high-resolution finite-difference methods to discretize these equations. Our solution scheme extends previous work in modeling porous media flows in two ways. First, we incorporate physical effects due to capillary pressure, a nonlinear inlet boundary condition, spatial porosity variations, and inertial effects on phase mobilities. In particular, capillary forces introduce a parabolic component into the recast evolution equation, and the inertial effects give rise to hyperbolic nonconvexity. Second, we introduce a modification of the slope-limiting algorithm to prevent our numerical method from producing spurious shocks. We present a numerical algorithm for accommodating these difficulties, show the algorithm is second-order accurate, and demonstrate its performance on a number of simplified problems relevant to trickle bed reactor modeling.

  9. Numerical modelling of swirling diffusive flames

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parra-Santos Teresa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational Fluid Dynamics has been used to study the mixing and combustion of two confined jets whose setup and operating conditions are those of the benchmark of Roback and Johnson. Numerical model solves 3D transient Navier Stokes for turbulent and reactive flows. Averaged velocity profiles using RNG swirl dominated k-epsilon model have been validated with experimental measurements from other sources for the non reactive case. The combustion model is Probability Density Function. Bearing in mind the annular jet has swirl number over 0.5, a vortex breakdown appears in the axis of the burner. Besides, the sudden expansion with a ratio of 2 in diameter between nozzle exits and the test chamber produces the boundary layer separation with the corresponding torus shape recirculation. Contrasting the mixing and combustion models, the last one produces the reduction of the vortex breakdown.

  10. New prognostic model for extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Qingqing; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Guanrong; Huang, Huiqiang; Huang, Hui; Lin, Tongyu; Jiang, Wenqi; Xia, Zhongjun; Young, Ken H

    2014-09-01

    Extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTL) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in affected patients. We designed a new prognostic model specifically for ENKTL to identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 158 patients who were newly diagnosed with ENKTL. The estimated 5-year overall survival rate was 39.4 %. Independent prognostic factors included total protein (TP) 100 mg/dL, and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) score ≥2. We constructed a new prognostic model by combining these prognostic factors: group 1 (64 cases (41.0 %)), no adverse factors; group 2 (58 cases (37.2 %)), one adverse factor; and group 3 (34 cases (21.8 %)), two or three adverse factors. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of these groups were 66.7, 23.0, and 5.9 %, respectively (p KPI model alone (p KPI model alone.

  11. Aerosol numerical modelling at local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albriet, Bastien

    2007-01-01

    At local scale and in urban areas, an important part of particulate pollution is due to traffic. It contributes largely to the high number concentrations observed. Two aerosol sources are mainly linked to traffic. Primary emission of soot particles and secondary nanoparticle formation by nucleation. The emissions and mechanisms leading to the formation of such bimodal distribution are still badly understood nowadays. In this thesis, we try to provide an answer to this problematic by numerical modelling. The Modal Aerosol Model MAM is used, coupled with two 3D-codes: a CFD (Mercure Saturne) and a CTM (Polair3D). A sensitivity analysis is performed, at the border of a road but also in the first meters of an exhaust plume, to identify the role of each process involved and the sensitivity of different parameters used in the modelling. (author) [fr

  12. Posttraumatic Orbital Emphysema: A Numerical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Skorek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Orbital emphysema is a common symptom accompanying orbital fracture. The pathomechanism is still not recognized and the usually assumed cause, elevated pressure in the upper airways connected with sneezing or coughing, does not always contribute to the occurrence of this type of fracture. Observations based on the finite model (simulating blowout type fracture of the deformations of the inferior orbital wall after a strike in its lower rim. Authors created a computer numeric model of the orbit with specified features—thickness and resilience modulus. During simulation an evenly spread 14400 N force was applied to the nodular points in the inferior rim (the maximal value not causing cracking of the outer rim, but only ruptures in the inferior wall. The observation was made from 1·10-3 to 1·10-2 second after a strike. Right after a strike dislocations of the inferior orbital wall toward the maxillary sinus were observed. Afterwards a retrograde wave of the dislocation of the inferior wall toward the orbit was noticed. Overall dislocation amplitude reached about 6 mm. Based on a numeric model of the orbit submitted to a strike in the inferior wall an existence of a retrograde shock wave causing orbital emphysema has been found.

  13. Numerical modeling of atmospheric washout processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, D.; Beheng, K.D.; Herbert, F.

    1987-01-01

    For the washout of particles from the atmosphere by clouds and rain one has to distinguish between processes which work in the first phase of cloud development, when condensation nuclei build up in saturated air (Nucleation Aerosol Scavenging, NAS) and those processes which work at the following cloud development. In the second case particles are taken off by cloud droplets or by falling rain drops via collision (Collision Aerosol Scavenging, CAS). The physics of both processes is described. For the CAS process a numerical model is presented. The report contains a documentation of the mathematical equations and the computer programs (FORTRAN). (KW) [de

  14. Development and validation of a prognostic model for recurrent glioblastoma patients treated with bevacizumab and irinotecan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urup, Thomas; Dahlrot, Rikke Hedegaard; Grunnet, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Background Predictive markers and prognostic models are required in order to individualize treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) patients. Here, we sought to identify clinical factors able to predict response and survival in recurrent GBM patients treated with bevacizumab (BEV) and irinotecan....... Material and methods A total of 219 recurrent GBM patients treated with BEV plus irinotecan according to a previously published treatment protocol were included in the initial population. Prognostic models were generated by means of multivariate logistic and Cox regression analysis. Results In multivariate...

  15. NUMERICAL MODEL APPLICATION IN ROWING SIMULATOR DESIGN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Chmátal

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research was to carry out a hydraulic design of rowing/sculling and paddling simulator. Nowadays there are two main approaches in the simulator design. The first one includes a static water with no artificial movement and counts on specially cut oars to provide the same resistance in the water. The second approach, on the other hand uses pumps or similar devices to force the water to circulate but both of the designs share many problems. Such problems are affecting already built facilities and can be summarized as unrealistic feeling, unwanted turbulent flow and bad velocity profile. Therefore, the goal was to design a new rowing simulator that would provide nature-like conditions for the racers and provide an unmatched experience. In order to accomplish this challenge, it was decided to use in-depth numerical modeling to solve the hydraulic problems. The general measures for the design were taken in accordance with space availability of the simulator ́s housing. The entire research was coordinated with other stages of the construction using BIM. The detailed geometry was designed using a numerical model in Ansys Fluent and parametric auto-optimization tools which led to minimum negative hydraulic phenomena and decreased investment and operational costs due to the decreased hydraulic losses in the system.

  16. Enhanced Prognostic Model for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Particle Filter State Transition Model Modification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buddhi Arachchige

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on predicting the End of Life and End of Discharge of Lithium ion batteries using a battery capacity fade model and a battery discharge model. The proposed framework will be able to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL and the Remaining charge through capacity fade and discharge models. A particle filter is implemented that estimates the battery’s State of Charge (SOC and State of Life (SOL by utilizing the battery’s physical data such as voltage, temperature, and current measurements. The accuracy of the prognostic framework has been improved by enhancing the particle filter state transition model to incorporate different environmental and loading conditions without retuning the model parameters. The effect of capacity fade in the reduction of the EOD (End of Discharge time with cycling has also been included, integrating both EOL (End of Life and EOD prediction models in order to get more accuracy in the estimations.

  17. Numerical modeling of materials under extreme conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The book presents twelve state of the art contributions in the field of numerical modeling of materials subjected to large strain, high strain rates, large pressure and high stress triaxialities, organized into two sections. The first part is focused on high strain rate-high pressures such as those occurring in impact dynamics and shock compression related phenomena, dealing with material response identification, advanced modeling incorporating microstructure and damage, stress waves propagation in solids and structures response under impact. The latter part is focused on large strain-low strain rates applications such as those occurring in technological material processing, dealing with microstructure and texture evolution, material response at elevated temperatures, structural behavior under large strain and multi axial state of stress.

  18. Partial Differential Equations Modeling and Numerical Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Glowinski, Roland

    2008-01-01

    This book is dedicated to Olivier Pironneau. For more than 250 years partial differential equations have been clearly the most important tool available to mankind in order to understand a large variety of phenomena, natural at first and then those originating from human activity and technological development. Mechanics, physics and their engineering applications were the first to benefit from the impact of partial differential equations on modeling and design, but a little less than a century ago the Schrödinger equation was the key opening the door to the application of partial differential equations to quantum chemistry, for small atomic and molecular systems at first, but then for systems of fast growing complexity. Mathematical modeling methods based on partial differential equations form an important part of contemporary science and are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. In this book several experts in this field present their latest results and discuss trends in the numerical analy...

  19. A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip

    2014-06-01

    Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Adaptive Numerical Algorithms in Space Weather Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Gabor; vanderHolst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor V.; DeZeeuw, Darren; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Fang, Fang; Manchester, Ward B.; Meng, Xing; Nakib, Dalal; Powell, Kenneth G.; hide

    2010-01-01

    Space weather describes the various processes in the Sun-Earth system that present danger to human health and technology. The goal of space weather forecasting is to provide an opportunity to mitigate these negative effects. Physics-based space weather modeling is characterized by disparate temporal and spatial scales as well as by different physics in different domains. A multi-physics system can be modeled by a software framework comprising of several components. Each component corresponds to a physics domain, and each component is represented by one or more numerical models. The publicly available Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can execute and couple together several components distributed over a parallel machine in a flexible and efficient manner. The framework also allows resolving disparate spatial and temporal scales with independent spatial and temporal discretizations in the various models. Several of the computationally most expensive domains of the framework are modeled by the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code that can solve various forms of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, including Hall, semi-relativistic, multi-species and multi-fluid MHD, anisotropic pressure, radiative transport and heat conduction. Modeling disparate scales within BATS-R-US is achieved by a block-adaptive mesh both in Cartesian and generalized coordinates. Most recently we have created a new core for BATS-R-US: the Block-Adaptive Tree Library (BATL) that provides a general toolkit for creating, load balancing and message passing in a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional block-adaptive grid. We describe the algorithms of BATL and demonstrate its efficiency and scaling properties for various problems. BATS-R-US uses several time-integration schemes to address multiple time-scales: explicit time stepping with fixed or local time steps, partially steady-state evolution, point-implicit, semi-implicit, explicit/implicit, and fully implicit numerical

  1. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  2. Prognostic significance of numeric aberrations of genes for thymidylate synthase, thymidine phosphorylase and dihydrofolate reductase in colorectal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Søren Astrup; Vainer, B.; Witton, C.J.

    2008-01-01

    ) in colorectal cancer, and to evaluate its prognostic significance following adjuvant chemotherapy, since these enzymes are closely related to efficacy of 5-fluorouracil (5FU). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients (n = 314), who were completely resected for colorectal cancer stages II-IV and adjuvantly...

  3. Numerical modelling of ion transport in flames

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Jie

    2015-10-20

    This paper presents a modelling framework to compute the diffusivity and mobility of ions in flames. The (n, 6, 4) interaction potential is adopted to model collisions between neutral and charged species. All required parameters in the potential are related to the polarizability of the species pair via semi-empirical formulas, which are derived using the most recently published data or best estimates. The resulting framework permits computation of the transport coefficients of any ion found in a hydrocarbon flame. The accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing its predictions with experimental data on the mobility of selected ions in single-component neutral gases. Based on this analysis, the value of a model constant available in the literature is modified in order to improve the model\\'s predictions. The newly determined ion transport coefficients are used as part of a previously developed numerical approach to compute the distribution of charged species in a freely propagating premixed lean CH4/O2 flame. Since a significant scatter of polarizability data exists in the literature, the effects of changes in polarizability on ion transport properties and the spatial distribution of ions in flames are explored. Our analysis shows that changes in polarizability propagate with decreasing effect from binary transport coefficients to species number densities. We conclude that the chosen polarizability value has a limited effect on the ion distribution in freely propagating flames. We expect that the modelling framework proposed here will benefit future efforts in modelling the effect of external voltages on flames. Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13647830.2015.1090018. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.

  4. Modeling and numerical simulations of the influenced Sznajd model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Farshad Salimi Naneh; Srinivasan, Aravinda Ramakrishnan; Chakraborty, Subhadeep

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the effects of independent nonconformists or influencers on the behavioral dynamic of a population of agents interacting with each other based on the Sznajd model. The system is modeled on a complete graph using the master equation. The acquired equation has been numerically solved. Accuracy of the mathematical model and its corresponding assumptions have been validated by numerical simulations. Regions of initial magnetization have been found from where the system converges to one of two unique steady-state PDFs, depending on the distribution of influencers. The scaling property and entropy of the stationary system in presence of varying level of influence have been presented and discussed.

  5. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  6. Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-09-01

    This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used

  7. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  8. Prognostic model for chronic hypertension in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde-Visser, S.D.; Hermes, W.; Twisk, J; Franx, A.; Pampus, M.G.; Koopmans, C.; Mol, B. W J; de Groot, J.C.M.J.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The association between hypertensive pregnancy disorders and cardiovascular disease later in life is well described. In this study we aim to develop a prognostic model from patients characteristics known before, early in, during and after pregnancy to identify women at increased risk of

  9. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in magmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Christian; Su, Yanqing; Parmigiani, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the complex non-linear physics that governs volcanic eruptions is contingent on our ability to characterize the dynamics of bubbles and its effect on the ascending magma. The exsolution and migration of bubbles has also a great impact on the heat and mass transport in and out of magma bodies stored at shallow depths in the crust. Multiphase systems like magmas are by definition heterogeneous at small scales. Although mixture theory or homogenization methods are convenient to represent multiphase systems as a homogeneous equivalent media, these approaches do not inform us on possible feedbacks at the pore-scale and can be significantly misleading. In this presentation, we discuss the development and application of bubble-scale multiphase flow modeling to address the following questions : How do bubbles impact heat and mass transport in magma chambers ? How efficient are chemical exchanges between the melt and bubbles during magma decompression? What is the role of hydrodynamic interactions on the deformation of bubbles while the magma is sheared? Addressing these questions requires powerful numerical methods that accurately model the balance between viscous, capillary and pressure stresses. We discuss how these bubble-scale models can provide important constraints on the dynamics of magmas stored at shallow depth or ascending to the surface during an eruption.

  10. Numerical modeling of polar mesocyclones generation mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Dennis; Stepanenko, Victor

    2013-04-01

    parameters, lateral boundary conditions are varied in the typically observed range. The approach is fully nonlinear: we use a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic mesoscale model NH3D_MPI [1] coupled with one-dimensional water body model LAKE. A key method used in the present study is the analysis of eddy kinetic and available potential energy budgets. References 1. Mikushin, D.N., and Stepanenko, V.M., The implementation of regional atmospheric model numerical algorithms for CBEA-based clusters. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Parallel Processing and Applied Mathematics, 2010, vol. 6067, p. 525-534. 2. Rasmussen, E., and Turner, J. (eds), Polar Lows: Mesoscale Weather Systems in the Polar Regions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003, 612 pp. 3. Yanase, W., and Niino, H., Dependence of Polar Low Development on Baroclinicity and Physical Processes: An Idealized High-Resolution Experiment, J. Atmos. Sci., 2006, vol. 64, p. 3044-3067.

  11. Numerical Modelling of Flow and Settling in Secondary Settling Tanks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Claus Poulsen

    This thesis discusses the development of a numerical model for the simulation of secondary settling tanks. In the first part, the status on the development of numerical models for settling tanks and a discussion of the current design practice are presented. A study of the existing numerical models...... and design practice proved a demand for further development to include numerical models in the design of settling tanks, thus improving the future settling tanks....

  12. Numerical modeling of the autumnal thermal bar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsydenov, Bair O.

    2018-03-01

    The autumnal riverine thermal bar of Kamloops Lake has been simulated using atmospheric data from December 1, 2015, to January 4, 2016. The nonhydrostatic 2.5D mathematical model developed takes into account the diurnal variability of the heat fluxes and wind on the lake surface. The average values for shortwave and longwave radiation and latent and sensible heat fluxes were 19.7 W/m2, - 95.9 W/m2, - 11.8 W/m2, and - 32.0 W/m2 respectively. Analysis of the wind regime data showed prevailing easterly winds and maximum speed of 11 m/s on the 8th and 19th days. Numerical experiments with different boundary conditions at the lake surface were conducted to evaluate effects of variable heat flux and wind stress. The results of modeling demonstrated that the variable heat flux affects the process of thermal bar evolution, especially during the lengthy night cooling. However, the wind had the greatest impact on the behavior of the autumnal thermal bar: The easterly winds contributed to an earlier appearance of the thermal bar, but the strong winds generating the intensive circulations (the velocity of the upper lake flow increased to 6 cm/s) may destroy the thermal bar front.

  13. A numerical model of aerosol scavenging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.M.; Molenkamp, C.R.

    1991-10-01

    Using a three-dimensional numerical cloud/smoke-plume model, we have simulated the burning of a large, mid-latitude city following a nuclear exchange. The model includes 18 dynamic and microphysical equations that predict the fire-driven airflow, cloud processes, and smoke-cloud interactions. In the simulation, the intense heating from the burning city produces a firestorm with updraft velocities exceeding 60 m/s. Within 15 minutes of ignition, the smoke plume penetrates the tropopause. The updraft triggers a cumulonimbus cloud that produces significant quantities of ice, snow, and hail. These solid hydrometeors, as well as cloud droplets and rain, interact with the smoke particles from the fire. At the end of the one-hour simulation, over 20% of the smoke is in slowly falling snowflakes. If the snow reaches the ground before the flakes completely sublimate (or melt and then evaporate), then only approximately 50% of the smoke will survive the scavenging processes and remain in the atmosphere to affect the global climate

  14. Numerical Modelling of Seismic Slope Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdeau, Céline; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Fleurisson, Jean-Alain; Grandjean, Gilles

    Earthquake ground-motions recorded worldwide have shown that many morphological and geological structures (topography, sedimentary basin) are prone to amplify the seismic shaking (San Fernando, 1971 [Davis and West 1973] Irpinia, 1980 [Del Pezzo et al. 1983]). This phenomenon, called site effects, was again recently observed in El Salvador when, on the 13th of January 2001, the country was struck by a M = 7.6 earthquake. Indeed, while horizontal accelerations on a rock site at Berlin, 80 km from the epicentre, did not exceed 0.23 g, they reached 0.6 g at Armenia, 110 km from the epicentre. Armenia is located on a small hill underlaid by a few meters thick pyroclastic deposits. Both the local topography and the presence of surface layers are likely to have caused the observed amplification effects, which are supposed to have contributed to the triggering of some of the hundreds of landslides related to this seismic event (Murphy et al. 2002). In order to better characterize the way site effects may influence the triggering of landslides along slopes, 2D numerical elastic and elasto-plastic models were developed. Various geometrical, geological and seismic conditions were analysed and the dynamic behaviour of the slope under these con- ditions was studied in terms of creation and location of a sliding surface. Preliminary results suggest that the size of modelled slope failures is dependent on site effects.

  15. Understanding Etna flank instability through numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apuani, Tiziana; Corazzato, Claudia; Merri, Andrea; Tibaldi, Alessandro

    2013-02-01

    As many active volcanoes, Mount Etna shows clear evidence of flank instability, and different mechanisms were suggested to explain this flank dynamics, based on the recorded deformation pattern and character. Shallow and deep deformations, mainly associated with both eruptive and seismic events, are concentrated along recognised fracture and fault systems, mobilising the eastern and south-eastern flank of the volcano. Several interacting causes were postulated to control the phenomenon, including gravity force, magma ascent along the feeding system, and a very complex local and/or regional tectonic activity. Nevertheless, the complexity of such dynamics is still an open subject of research and being the volcano flanks heavily urbanised, the comprehension of the gravitative dynamics is a major issue for public safety and civil protection. The present research explores the effects of the main geological features (in particular the role of the subetnean clays, interposed between the Apennine-Maghrebian flysch and the volcanic products) and the role of weakness zones, identified by fracture and fault systems, on the slope instability process. The effects of magma intrusions are also investigated. The problem is addressed by integrating field data, laboratory tests and numerical modelling. A bi- and tri-dimensional stress-strain analysis was performed by a finite difference numerical code (FLAC and FLAC3D), mainly aimed at evaluating the relationship among geological features, volcano-tectonic structures and magmatic activity in controlling the deformation processes. The analyses are well supported by dedicated structural-mechanical field surveys, which allowed to estimate the rock mass strength and deformability parameters. To take into account the uncertainties which inevitably occur in a so complicated model, many efforts were done in performing a sensitivity analysis along a WNW-ESE section crossing the volcano summit and the Valle del Bove depression. This was

  16. Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guerra, Beniamino; Haile, Sarah R.; Lamprecht, Bernd; Ramírez, Ana S.; Martinez-Camblor, Pablo; Kaiser, Bernhard; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Almagro, Pere; Casanova, Ciro; Esteban-González, Cristóbal; Soler-Cataluña, Juan J.; de-Torres, Juan P.; Miravitlles, Marc; Celli, Bartolome R.; Marin, Jose M.; ter Riet, Gerben; Sobradillo, Patricia; Lange, Peter; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Antó, Josep M.; Turner, Alice M.; Han, MeiLan K.; Langhammer, Arnulf; Leivseth, Linda; Bakke, Per; Johannessen, Ane; Oga, Toru; Cosio, Borja; Ancochea-Bermúdez, Julio; Echazarreta, Andres; Roche, Nicolas; Burgel, Pierre-Régis; Sin, Don D.; Soriano, Joan B.; Puhan, Milo A.

    2018-01-01

    External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores

  17. Numerical modeling of atoll island hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, R T; Jenson, J W; Olsen, A E

    2009-01-01

    We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.

  18. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; Twisk, J W R; van Rhenen, W; Pallesen, S; Bjorvatn, B; Moen, B E; Magerøy, N

    2015-01-01

    To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by adding person-related (age, gender, marital status, children at home, and coping strategies), health-related (BMI, physical activity, smoking, and caffeine and alcohol intake), and work-related (job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, social support at work, and both work-to-family and family-to-work spillover) variables. The updated model was then prospectively validated for predictions at wave 3. 1,557 (77 %) nurses had complete data at wave 2 and 1,342 (65 %) at wave 3. The risk of high SA was under-estimated by the Dutch model, but discrimination between high-risk and low-risk nurses was fair after re-calibration to the Norwegian data. Gender, marital status, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, support at the workplace, and work-to-family spillover were identified as potential predictors of high SA. However, these predictors did not improve the model's discriminative ability, which remained fair at wave 3. The prognostic model correctly identifies 73 % of Norwegian nurses at risk of high SA, although additional predictors are needed before the model can be used to screen working populations for risk of high SA.

  19. Large scale experiments as a tool for numerical model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Jens; Hansen, Erik Asp; Fuchs, Jesper

    2003-01-01

    Experimental modelling is an important tool for study of hydrodynamic phenomena. The applicability of experiments can be expanded by the use of numerical models and experiments are important for documentation of the validity of numerical tools. In other cases numerical tools can be applied...

  20. Numerical modelling of new rockfall interception nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Boetticher, Albrecht; Volkwein, Axel; Wendeler, Corinna

    2010-05-01

    The design and certification of effective rockfall protection barriers is mainly achieved through 1:1 prototype testing. In order to reduce development costs of a prototype it is recommended that pre-studies using numerical simulations are performed. A large component to modelling rockfall protection systems is the numerical simulation of the nets. To date there exist several approaches to model the different mesh types such as ring nets or diagonal meshes (Nicot 1999, Cazzani et al. 2002, Volkwein 2004). However, the consideration of chain link meshes has not yet been realised. Chain link meshes are normally found as standard fence structures. However, they also exist in setups using high-strength steel and wire bundles. These variants show an enormous capacity to retain loads e.g. rockfalls, and at the same time are very efficient due to their low demand of steel material. The increasing application of chain link mesh in barrier systems requires an accurate model is available to complete prototype studies. A new approach now aims to perform a Finite Element simulation of such chain link meshes. The main challenge herein is to achieve the net deformation behaviour that is observed in field tests also in the simulation. A simulation using simple truss elements would not work since it neglects the out-of-plane-height of the mesh construction providing important reserves for local and global high deformations. Thus addressing this, a specially developed Discrete Element is able to reconstruct the mechanical behaviour of the single chain wire (bundles). As input parameters it utilises typical properties such as longitudinal and transversal mesh widths, and break loads resulting from in-plane-tension tests and steel strength. The single chain elements then can be combined to a complete mesh (e.g. 130 x 65 mm, 3 - 4 mm wire with a strength of 1770 N-mm2). Combining these elements with a supporting structure consisting of posts, ropes and energy absorbers, enables the

  1. Multistream sensor fusion-based prognostics model for systems with single failure modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiaolei; Paynabar, Kamran; Gebraeel, Nagi

    2017-01-01

    Advances in sensor technology have facilitated the capability of monitoring the degradation of complex engineering systems through the analysis of multistream degradation signals. However, the varying levels of correlation with physical degradation process for different sensors, high-dimensionality of the degradation signals and cross-correlation among different signal streams pose significant challenges in monitoring and prognostics of such systems. To address the foregoing challenges, we develop a three-step multi-sensor prognostic methodology that utilizes multistream signals to predict residual useful lifetimes of partially degraded systems. We first identify the informative sensors via the penalized (log)-location-scale regression. Then, we fuse the degradation signals of the informative sensors using multivariate functional principal component analysis, which is capable of modeling the cross-correlation of signal streams. Finally, the third step focuses on utilizing the fused signal features for prognostics via adaptive penalized (log)-location-scale regression. We validate our multi-sensor prognostic methodology using simulation study as well as a case study of aircraft turbofan engines available from NASA repository.

  2. Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renko, Tanja; Ivušić, Sarah; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Šoljan, Vinko; Horvat, Igor

    2018-03-01

    In this study, a synoptic and mesoscale analysis was performed and Szilagyi's waterspout forecasting method was tested on ten waterspout events in the period of 2013-2016. Data regarding waterspout occurrences were collected from weather stations, an online survey at the official website of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. Synoptic weather conditions were analyzed using surface pressure fields, 500 hPa level synoptic charts, SYNOP reports and atmospheric soundings. For all observed waterspout events, a synoptic type was determined using the 500 hPa geopotential height chart. The occurrence of lightning activity was determined from the LINET lightning database, and waterspouts were divided into thunderstorm-related and "fair weather" ones. Mesoscale characteristics (with a focus on thermodynamic instability indices) were determined using the high-resolution (500 m grid length) mesoscale numerical weather model and model results were compared with the available observations. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) was tested using vertical atmospheric profiles provided by the mesoscale numerical model. The SWI successfully forecasted all waterspout events, even the winter events. This indicates that the Szilagyi's waterspout prognostic method could be used as a valid prognostic tool for the eastern Adriatic.

  3. PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

  4. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  5. Numerical models for high beta magnetohydrodynamic flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brackbill, J.U.

    1987-01-01

    The fundamentals of numerical magnetohydrodynamics for highly conducting, high-beta plasmas are outlined. The discussions emphasize the physical properties of the flow, and how elementary concepts in numerical analysis can be applied to the construction of finite difference approximations that capture these features. The linear and nonlinear stability of explicit and implicit differencing in time is examined, the origin and effect of numerical diffusion in the calculation of convective transport is described, and a technique for maintaining solenoidality in the magnetic field is developed. Many of the points are illustrated by numerical examples. The techniques described are applicable to the time-dependent, high-beta flows normally encountered in magnetically confined plasmas, plasma switches, and space and astrophysical plasmas. 40 refs

  6. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave transformation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.; SanilKumar, V.

    A software has been developed for numerical refraction study based on finite amplitude wave theories. Wave attenuation due to shoaling, bottom friction, bottom percolation and viscous dissipation has also been incorporated. The software...

  7. Numerical modelling of multicomponent LNAPL dissolution kinetics ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    subsequent removal of free phase liquid, still the organic compounds are present .... Since the flow through porous media is mainly restricted to the pore space ..... initial and boundary conditions for the numerical scheme are given in table 2.

  8. Numerical Modelling of Sediment Transport in Combined Sewer Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlütter, Flemming

    A conceptual sediment transport model has been developed. Through a case study a comparison with other numerical models is performed.......A conceptual sediment transport model has been developed. Through a case study a comparison with other numerical models is performed....

  9. A numerical 4D Collision Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Pal; Culloch, Ross; Lieber, Lilian; Kregting, Louise

    2017-04-01

    With the growing number of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices being installed across the world, some concern has been raised about the possibility of harming mobile, marine fauna by collision. Although physical contact between a MRE device and an organism has not been reported to date, these novel sub-sea structures pose a challenge for accurately estimating collision risks as part of environmental impact assessments. Even if the animal motion is simplified to linear translation, ignoring likely evasive behaviour, the mathematical problem of establishing an impact probability is not trivial. We present a numerical algorithm to obtain such probability distributions using transient, four-dimensional simulations of a novel marine renewable device concept, Deep Green, Minesto's power plant and hereafter referred to as the 'kite' that flies in a figure-of-eight configuration. Simulations were carried out altering several configurations including kite depth, kite speed and kite trajectory while keeping the speed of the moving object constant. Since the kite assembly is defined as two parts in the model, a tether (attached to the seabed) and the kite, collision risk of each part is reported independently. By comparing the number of collisions with the number of collision-free simulations, a probability of impact for each simulated position in the cross- section of the area is considered. Results suggest that close to the bottom, where the tether amplitude is small, the path is always blocked and the impact probability is 100% as expected. However, higher up in the water column, the collision probability is twice as high in the mid line, where the tether passes twice per period than at the extremes of its trajectory. The collision probability distribution is much more complex in the upper end of the water column, where the kite and tether can simultaneously collide with the object. Results demonstrate the viability of such models, which can also incorporate empirical

  10. Physical Modeling for Anomaly Diagnostics and Prognostics, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop developed an innovative, model-driven anomaly diagnostic and fault characterization system for electromechanical actuator (EMA) systems to mitigate...

  11. A prognostic scoring model for survival after locoregional therapy in de novo stage IV breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kommalapati, Anuhya; Tella, Sri Harsha; Goyal, Gaurav; Ganti, Apar Kishor; Krishnamurthy, Jairam; Tandra, Pavan Kumar

    2018-05-02

    The role of locoregional treatment (LRT) remains controversial in de novo stage IV breast cancer (BC). We sought to analyze the role of LRT and prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT utilizing the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB). The objective of the current study is to create and internally validate a prognostic scoring model to predict the long-term OS for de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT. We included de novo stage IV BC patients reported to NCDB between 2004 and 2015. Patients were divided into LRT and no-LRT subsets. We randomized LRT subset to training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, a seventeen-point prognostic scoring system was developed based on the hazard ratios calculated using Cox-proportional method. We stratified both training and validation cohorts into two "groups" [group 1 (0-7 points) and group 2 (7-17 points)]. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to compare OS between the two groups. Our prognostic score was validated internally by comparing the OS between the respective groups in both the training and validation cohorts. Among 67,978 patients, LRT subset (21,200) had better median OS as compared to that of no-LRT (45 vs. 24 months; p < 0.0001). The group 1 and group 2 in the training cohort showed a significant difference in the 3-year OS (p < 0.0001) (68 vs. 26%). On internal validation, comparable OS was seen between the respective groups in each cohort (p = 0.77). Our prognostic scoring system will help oncologists to predict the prognosis in de novo stage IV BC patients treated with LRT. Although firm treatment-related conclusions cannot be made due to the retrospective nature of the study, LRT appears to be associated with a better OS in specific subgroups.

  12. Numerical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Boumaza

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Transient convection heat transfer is of fundamental interest in many industrial and environmental situations, as well as in electronic devices and security of energy systems. Transient fluid flow problems are among the more difficult to analyze and yet are very often encountered in modern day technology. The main objective of this research project is to carry out a theoretical and numerical analysis of transient convective heat transfer in vertical flows, when the thermal field is due to different kinds of variation, in time and space of some boundary conditions, such as wall temperature or wall heat flux. This is achieved by the development of a mathematical model and its resolution by suitable numerical methods, as well as performing various sensitivity analyses. These objectives are achieved through a theoretical investigation of the effects of wall and fluid axial conduction, physical properties and heat capacity of the pipe wall on the transient downward mixed convection in a circular duct experiencing a sudden change in the applied heat flux on the outside surface of a central zone.

  13. A Prognostic Model for Development of Profound Shock among Children Presenting with Dengue Shock Syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phung Khanh Lam

    Full Text Available To identify risk factors and develop a prediction model for the development of profound and recurrent shock amongst children presenting with dengue shock syndrome (DSS.We analyzed data from a prospective cohort of children with DSS recruited at the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit of the Hospital for Tropical Disease in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The primary endpoint was "profound DSS", defined as ≥2 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting in compensated shock, or ≥1 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting initially with decompensated/hypotensive shock, and/or requirement for inotropic support. Recurrent shock was evaluated as a secondary endpoint. Risk factors were pre-defined clinical and laboratory variables collected at the time of presentation with shock. Prognostic model development was based on logistic regression and compared to several alternative approaches.The analysis population included 1207 children of whom 222 (18% progressed to "profound DSS" and 433 (36% had recurrent shock. Independent risk factors for both endpoints included younger age, earlier presentation, higher pulse rate, higher temperature, higher haematocrit and, for females, worse hemodynamic status at presentation. The final prognostic model for "profound DSS" showed acceptable discrimination (AUC=0.69 for internal validation and calibration and is presented as a simple score-chart.Several risk factors for development of profound or recurrent shock among children presenting with DSS were identified. The score-chart derived from the prognostic models should improve triage and management of children presenting with DSS in dengue-endemic areas.

  14. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  15. Masonry constructions mechanical models and numerical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lucchesi, Massimiliano; Padovani, Cristina

    2008-01-01

    Numerical methods for the structural analysis of masonry constructions can be of great value in assessing the safety of artistically important masonry buildings and optimizing potential operations of maintenance and strengthening in terms of their cost-effectiveness, architectural impact and static effectiveness. This monograph firstly provides a detailed description of the constitutive equation of masonry-like materials, clearly setting out its most important features. It then goes on to provide a numerical procedure to solve the equilibrium problem of masonry solids. A large portion of the w

  16. Elements of a unified prognostic model for secondary air contamination by resuspension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besnus, F.; Garger, E.; Gordeev, S.; Hollaender, W.; Kashparov, V.; Martinez-Serrano, J.; Mironov, V.; Nicholson, K.; Tschiersch, J.; Vintersved, I.

    1996-01-01

    Based on results of several joint experimental campaigns and an extensive literature survey, a prognostic model was constructed capable of predicting airborne activity concentrations and size distributions as well as soil surface activity concentrations as a function of time and meteorological conditions. Example scenario calculations show that agricultural practices are of lesser importance to secondary air contamination than dust storms immediately after primary deposition and forest fires

  17. A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Wozniak

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus, evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4, and ragweed (Ambrosia. This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4 over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1 a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2 a plant functional type (PFT land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions

  18. Numerical considerations for Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models: Eliminating rogue trajectories, and the importance of numerical accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behavior in the numerical solution. This paper discusses numerical considerations when solving the Langevin-based particle velo...

  19. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  20. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2018-01-01

    monitoring, fault prediction and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  1. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution......The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...

  2. Some Experiences with Numerical Modelling of Overflows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben; Nielsen, L.; Jensen, B.

    2007-01-01

    across the edge of the overflow. To ensure critical flow across the edge, the upstream flow must be subcritical whereas the downstream flow is either supercritical or a free jet. Experimentally overflows are well studied. Based on laboratory experiments and Froude number scaling, numerous accurate...

  3. Numerical time integration for air pollution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G. Verwer (Jan); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem); J.G. Blom (Joke)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDue to the large number of chemical species and the three space dimensions, off-the-shelf stiff ODE integrators are not feasible for the numerical time integration of stiff systems of advection-diffusion-reaction equations [ fracpar{c{t + nabla cdot left( vu{u c right) = nabla cdot left(

  4. The strong prognostic value of KELIM, a model-based parameter from CA 125 kinetics in ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Benoit; Colomban, Olivier; Heywood, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Unexpected results were recently reported about the poor surrogacy of Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) defined CA-125 response in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. Mathematical modeling may help describe CA-125 decline dynamically and discriminate prognostic kinetic parameters....

  5. Numerical modeling and the physical basis of seismic discriminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denny, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Accurate seismic event discrimination is critical to detection of nuclear explosions. Numerical modeling applied to seismic event discrimination can lead to increased reliability of proliferation detection. It is particularly applicable to error budgeting and to understanding explosion and earthquake phenomenologies. There also is a need for minimum requirements to validate the models used in numerical modeling

  6. 2-dimensional numerical modeling of active magnetic regeneration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Pryds, Nini; Smith, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Various aspects of numerical modeling of Active Magnetic Regeneration (AMR) are presented. Using a 2-dimensional numerical model for solving the unsteady heat transfer equations for the AMR system, a range of physical effects on both idealized and non-idealized AMR are investigated. The modeled...

  7. Watershed modeling tools and data for prognostic and diagnostic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambel-Leitao, P.; Brito, D.; Neves, R.

    2009-04-01

    When eutrophication is considered an important process to control it can be accomplished reducing nitrogen and phosphorus losses from both point and nonpoint sources and helping to assess the effectiveness of the pollution reduction strategy. HARP-NUT guidelines (Guidelines on Harmonized Quantification and Reporting Procedures for Nutrients) (Borgvang & Selvik, 2000) are presented by OSPAR as the best common quantification and reporting procedures for calculating the reduction of nutrient inputs. In 2000, OSPAR HARP-NUT guidelines on a trial basis. They were intended to serve as a tool for OSPAR Contracting Parties to report, in a harmonized manner, their different commitments, present or future, with regard to nutrients under the OSPAR Convention, in particular the "Strategy to Combat Eutrophication". HARP-NUT Guidelines (Borgvang and Selvik, 2000; Schoumans, 2003) were developed to quantify and report on the individual sources of nitrogen and phosphorus discharges/losses to surface waters (Source Orientated Approach). These results can be compared to nitrogen and phosphorus figures with the total riverine loads measured at downstream monitoring points (Load Orientated Approach), as load reconciliation. Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in river systems represents the connecting link between the "Source Orientated Approach" and the "Load Orientated Approach". Both approaches are necessary for verification purposes and both may be needed for providing the information required for the various commitments. Guidelines 2,3,4,5 are mainly concerned with the sources estimation. They present a set of simple calculations that allow the estimation of the origin of loads. Guideline 6 is a particular case where the application of a model is advised, in order to estimate the sources of nutrients from diffuse sources associated with land use/land cover. The model chosen for this was SWAT (Arnold & Fohrer, 2005) model because it is suggested in the guideline 6 and because it

  8. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1993-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMS) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, there has arisen an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMS, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In the present paper, we investigate the effects of introducing pregnostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the long wave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic cloud water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds become stronger, due to more realistic tropical convection

  9. Conceptual and Numerical Models for UZ Flow and Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the conceptual and numerical models used for modeling of unsaturated zone (UZ) fluid (water and air) flow and solute transport processes. This is in accordance with ''AMR Development Plan for U0030 Conceptual and Numerical Models for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Processes, Rev 00''. The conceptual and numerical modeling approaches described in this AMR are used for models of UZ flow and transport in fractured, unsaturated rock under ambient and thermal conditions, which are documented in separate AMRs. This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR), the Near Field Environment PMR, and the following models: Calibrated Properties Model; UZ Flow Models and Submodels; Mountain-Scale Coupled Processes Model; Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Seepage Model; Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model; Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA); and UZ Radionuclide Transport Models

  10. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2017-07-14

    Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) on the estimated model discrimination (c-index) and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots) in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and should not be ignored. When treatment use is random, treated

  11. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romin Pajouheshnia

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and

  12. Numerical Models of Sewage Dispersion and Statistica Bathing Water Standards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Ole; Larsen, Torben

    1991-01-01

    As bathing water standards usually are founded in statistical methods, the numerical models used in outfall design should reflect this. A statistical approach, where stochastic variations in source strength and bacterial disappearance is incorporated into a numerical dilution model is presented. ...

  13. Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of casting processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    1998-01-01

    The control volume method applied to numerical modelling of castning. Analytical solutions based on the error function.Riemann-temperature. Modelling of release of latent heat with the enthalpy method....

  14. Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury: Clinical Characteristics and a Prognostic Model of 12-Month Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einarsen, Cathrine Elisabeth; van der Naalt, Joukje; Jacobs, Bram; Follestad, Turid; Moen, Kent Gøran; Vik, Anne; Håberg, Asta Kristine; Skandsen, Toril

    2018-03-31

    Patients with moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI) often are studied together with patients with severe TBI, even though the expected outcome of the former is better. Therefore, we aimed to describe patient characteristics and 12-month outcomes, and to develop a prognostic model based on admission data, specifically for patients with moderate TBI. Patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 9-13 and age ≥16 years were prospectively enrolled in 2 level I trauma centers in Europe. Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) score was assessed at 12 months. A prognostic model predicting moderate disability or worse (GOSE score ≤6), as opposed to a good recovery, was fitted by penalized regression. Model performance was evaluated by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curves. Of the 395 enrolled patients, 81% had intracranial lesions on head computed tomography, and 71% were admitted to an intensive care unit. At 12 months, 44% were moderately disabled or worse (GOSE score ≤6), whereas 8% were severely disabled and 6% died (GOSE score ≤4). Older age, lower Glasgow Coma Scale score, no day-of-injury alcohol intoxication, presence of a subdural hematoma, occurrence of hypoxia and/or hypotension, and preinjury disability were significant predictors of GOSE score ≤6 (area under the curve = 0.80). Patients with moderate TBI exhibit characteristics of significant brain injury. Although few patients died or experienced severe disability, 44% did not experience good recovery, indicating that follow-up is needed. The model is a first step in development of prognostic models for moderate TBI that are valid across centers. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A numerical model of heavy gas dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidokhtti, A.A.

    1993-01-01

    A simple mathematical model describing the motion of a dense gas released continuously into and environment is presented. The model correctly predicts the laboratory experiments which were carried out by Britter and Snyder (1987). It is an entrainment model better known as box model. In this model, the effects of temperature change and phase change are not considered and it is for a steady-state case. Further work is required for including these effects which are often associated with the mechanisms involved in accidental or natural release of heavy gases in the environment. The results of such a model will be extended to the practical situations which are and will be common to the nuclear industry at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. The applicability of such studies to these situations will be discussed

  16. A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

    2012-05-01

    Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

  17. Numerical Model of High Strength Concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, R. Z.; Wang, C. Y.; Lin, Y. L.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a three-dimensional constitutive model based on the concept of equivalent uniaxial strain. closed Menetrey-Willam (CMW) failure surfaces which combined with Menetrey-Willam meridian and the cap model are introduced in this paper. Saenz stress-strain model is applied and adjusted by the ultimate strength parameters from CMW failure surface to reflect the latest stress or strain condition. The high strength concrete (HSC) under tri-axial non-proportional loading is considered and the model in this paper performed a good prediction.

  18. Prognostic stratification of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib: comparison with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering prognostic factors model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bamias, Aristotelis; Anastasiou, Ioannis; Stravodimos, Kostas; Xanthakis, Ioannis; Skolarikos, Andreas; Christodoulou, Christos; Syrigos, Kostas; Papandreou, Christos; Razi, Evangelia; Dafni, Urania; Fountzilas, George; Karadimou, Alexandra; Dimopoulos, Meletios A; Lampaki, Sofia; Lainakis, George; Malettou, Lia; Timotheadou, Eleni; Papazisis, Kostas; Andreadis, Charalambos; Kontovinis, Loukas

    2010-01-01

    The treatment paradigm in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has changed in the recent years. Sunitinib has been established as a new standard for first-line therapy. We studied the prognostic significance of baseline characteristics and we compared the risk stratification with the established Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) model. This is a retrospective analysis of patients treated in six Greek Oncology Units of HECOG. Inclusion criteria were: advanced renal cell carcinoma not amenable to surgery and treatment with Sunitinib. Previous cytokine therapy but no targeted agents were allowed. Overall survival (OS) was the major end point. Significance of prognostic factors was evaluated with multivariate cox regression analysis. A model was developed to stratify patients according to risk. One hundred and nine patients were included. Median follow up has been 15.8 months and median OS 17.1 months (95% CI: 13.7-20.6). Time from diagnosis to the start of Sunitinib (<= 12 months vs. >12 months, p = 0.001), number of metastatic sites (1 vs. >1, p = 0.003) and performance status (PS) (<= 1 vs >1, p = 0.001) were independently associated with OS. Stratification in two risk groups ('low' risk: 0 or 1 risk factors; 'high' risk: 2 or 3 risk factors) resulted in distinctly different OS (median not reached [NR] vs. 10.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.3-13.3], p < 0.001). The application of the MSKCC risk criteria resulted in stratification into 3 groups (low and intermediate and poor risk) with distinctly different prognosis underlying its validity. Nevertheless, MSKCC model did not show an improved prognostic performance over the model developed by this analysis. Studies on risk stratification of patients with advanced RCC treated with targeted therapies are warranted. Our results suggest that a simpler than the MSKCC model can be developed. Such models should be further validated

  19. Numerical model of Ca(OH)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, T.; Peelen, W.; Larbi, J.; Rooij, M. de; Polder, R.

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model is being developed to describe a repair method in concrete, called cathodic protection (CP). The model is in principle also useful to describe electrodeposition in concrete, e.g. the process of re-precipitation of Ca(OH)2 invoked by an electrical current. In CP, the

  20. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  1. Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzfeld, Mike

    2009-02-01

    An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

  2. Numerical Modelling of Structures with Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahsin Maciej

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The nature of environmental interactions, as well as large dimensions and complex structure of marine offshore objects, make designing, building and operation of these objects a great challenge. This is the reason why a vast majority of investment cases of this type include structural analysis, performed using scaled laboratory models and complemented by extended computer simulations. The present paper focuses on FEM modelling of the offshore wind turbine supporting structure. Then problem is studied using the modal analysis, sensitivity analysis, as well as the design of experiment (DOE and response surface model (RSM methods. The results of modal analysis based simulations were used for assessing the quality of the FEM model against the data measured during the experimental modal analysis of the scaled laboratory model for different support conditions. The sensitivity analysis, in turn, has provided opportunities for assessing the effect of individual FEM model parameters on the dynamic response of the examined supporting structure. The DOE and RSM methods allowed to determine the effect of model parameter changes on the supporting structure response.

  3. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  4. Amorphous track models: a numerical comparison study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greilich, Steffen; Grzanka, Leszek; Hahn, Ute

    in carbon ion treatment at the particle facility HIT in Heidelberg. Apparent differences between the LEM and the Katz model are the way how interactions of individual particle tracks and how extended targets are handled. Complex scenarios, however, can mask the actual effect of these differences. Here, we......Amorphous track models such as Katz' Ion-Gamma-Kill (IGK) approach [1, 2] or the Local Effect Model (LEM) [3, 4] had reasonable success in predicting the response of solid state dosimeters and radiobiological systems. LEM is currently applied in radiotherapy for biological dose optimization...

  5. NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND MODELING OF UNSTEADY FLOW ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-30

    Jun 30, 2014 ... objective of this study is to control the simulation of unsteady flows around structures. ... Aerospace, our results were in good agreement with experimental .... Two-Equation Eddy-Viscosity Turbulence Models for Engineering.

  6. Computational numerical modelling of plasma focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brollo, Fabricio

    2005-01-01

    Several models for calculation of the dynamics of Plasma Focus have been developed. All of them begin from the same physic principle: the current sheet run down the anode length, ionizing and collecting the gas that finds in its way.This is known as snow-plow model.Concerning pinch's compression, a MHD model is proposed.The plasma is treated as a fluid , particularly as a high ionized gas.However, there are not many models that, taking into account thermal equilibrium inside the plasma, make approximated calculations of the maximum temperatures reached in the pinch.Besides, there are no models which use those temperatures to estimate the termofusion neutron yield for the Deuterium or Deuterium-Tritium gas filled cases.In the PLADEMA network (Dense Magnetized Plasmas) a code was developed with the objective of describe the plasma focus dynamics, in a conceptual engineering stage.The codes calculates the principal variables (currents, time to focus, etc) and estimates the neutron yield in Deuterium-filled plasma focus devices.It can be affirmed that the code's experimental validation, in its axial and radial stages, was very successfully. However, it was accepted that the compression stage should be formulated again, to find a solution for a large variation of a parameter related with velocity profiles for the particles trapped inside the pinch.The objectives of this work can be stated in the next way : - Check the compression's model hypothesis. Develop a new model .- Implement the new model in the code. Compare results against experimental data of Plasma Focus devices from all around the world [es

  7. The influence of numerical models on determining the drag coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobeš Josef

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with numerical modelling of body aerodynamic drag coefficient in the transition from laminar to turbulent flow regimes, where the selection of a suitable numerical model is problematic. On the basic problem of flow around a simple body – sphere selected computational models are tested. The values obtained by numerical simulations of drag coefficients of each model are compared with the graph of dependency of the drag coefficient vs. Reynolds number for a sphere. Next the dependency of Strouhal number vs. Reynolds number is evaluated, where the vortex shedding frequency values for given speed are obtained numerically and experimentally and then the values are compared for each numerical model and experiment. The aim is to specify trends for the selection of appropriate numerical model for flow around bodies problem in which the precise description of the flow field around the obstacle is used to define the acoustic noise source. Numerical modelling is performed by finite volume method using CFD code.

  8. Numerical modelling of laser rapid prototyping by fusion wire deposit

    OpenAIRE

    Arbaoui , Larbi; Masse , J.E.; Barrallier , Laurent; Mocellin , Katia

    2010-01-01

    International audience; A finite element model has been developed to simulate an innovative laser rapid prototyping process. Several numerical developments have been implemented in order to simulate the main steps of the rapid prototyping process: injection, heating, phase change and deposit. The numerical model also takes into account different phenomena: surface tension in the liquid state, asborptivity and plasma effects during materiallaser interaction. The threedimensional model is based...

  9. Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

  10. Numerical Modeling of Ophthalmic Response to Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, E. S.; Myers, J. G.; Mulugeta, L.; Vera, J.; Raykin, J.; Feola, A.; Gleason, R.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2015-01-01

    To investigate ophthalmic changes in spaceflight, we would like to predict the impact of blood dysregulation and elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) on Intraocular Pressure (IOP). Unlike other physiological systems, there are very few lumped parameter models of the eye. The eye model described here is novel in its inclusion of the human choroid and retrobulbar subarachnoid space (rSAS), which are key elements in investigating the impact of increased ICP and ocular blood volume. Some ingenuity was required in modeling the blood and rSAS compartments due to the lack of quantitative data on essential hydrodynamic quantities, such as net choroidal volume and blood flowrate, inlet and exit pressures, and material properties, such as compliances between compartments.

  11. Piecewise Polynomial Aggregation as Preprocessing for Data Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobronets, B. S.; Popova, O. A.

    2018-05-01

    Data aggregation issues for numerical modeling are reviewed in the present study. The authors discuss data aggregation procedures as preprocessing for subsequent numerical modeling. To calculate the data aggregation, the authors propose using numerical probabilistic analysis (NPA). An important feature of this study is how the authors represent the aggregated data. The study shows that the offered approach to data aggregation can be interpreted as the frequency distribution of a variable. To study its properties, the density function is used. For this purpose, the authors propose using the piecewise polynomial models. A suitable example of such approach is the spline. The authors show that their approach to data aggregation allows reducing the level of data uncertainty and significantly increasing the efficiency of numerical calculations. To demonstrate the degree of the correspondence of the proposed methods to reality, the authors developed a theoretical framework and considered numerical examples devoted to time series aggregation.

  12. Numerical model updating technique for structures using firefly algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sai Kubair, K.; Mohan, S. C.

    2018-03-01

    Numerical model updating is a technique used for updating the existing experimental models for any structures related to civil, mechanical, automobiles, marine, aerospace engineering, etc. The basic concept behind this technique is updating the numerical models to closely match with experimental data obtained from real or prototype test structures. The present work involves the development of numerical model using MATLAB as a computational tool and with mathematical equations that define the experimental model. Firefly algorithm is used as an optimization tool in this study. In this updating process a response parameter of the structure has to be chosen, which helps to correlate the numerical model developed with the experimental results obtained. The variables for the updating can be either material or geometrical properties of the model or both. In this study, to verify the proposed technique, a cantilever beam is analyzed for its tip deflection and a space frame has been analyzed for its natural frequencies. Both the models are updated with their respective response values obtained from experimental results. The numerical results after updating show that there is a close relationship that can be brought between the experimental and the numerical models.

  13. Numerical Modeling of Rotary Kiln Productivity Increase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romero-Valle, M.A.; Pisaroni, M.; Van Puyvelde, D.; Lahaye, D.J.P.; Sadi, R.

    2013-01-01

    Rotary kilns are used in many industrial processes ranging from cement manufacturing to waste incineration. The operating conditions vary widely depending on the process. While there are many models available within the literature and industry, the wide range of operating conditions justifies

  14. Numerical modeling of transformer inrush currents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardelli, E. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Perugia, I-06125 Perugia (Italy); Center for Electric and Magnetic Applied Research (Italy); Faba, A., E-mail: faba@unipg.it [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Perugia, I-06125 Perugia (Italy); Center for Electric and Magnetic Applied Research (Italy)

    2014-02-15

    This paper presents an application of a vector hysteresis model to the prediction of the inrush current due the arbitrary initial excitation of a transformer after a fault. The approach proposed seems promising in order to predict the transient overshoot in current and the optimal time to close the circuit after the fault.

  15. Numerical Modeling of Foam Drilling Hydraulics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozcan Baris

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of foam as a drilling fluid was developed to meet a special set of conditions under which other common drilling fluids had failed. Foam drilling is defined as the process of making boreholes by utilizing foam as the circulating fluid. When compared with conventional drilling, underbalanced or foam drilling has several advantages. These advantages include: avoidance of lost circulation problems, minimizing damage to pay zones, higher penetration rates and bit life. Foams are usually characterized by the quality, the ratio of the volume of gas, and the total foam volume. Obtaining dependable pressure profiles for aerated (gasified fluids and foam is more difficult than for single phase fluids, since in the former ones the drilling mud contains a gas phase that is entrained within the fluid system. The primary goal of this study is to expand the knowledge-base of the hydrodynamic phenomena that occur in a foam drilling operation. In order to gain a better understanding of foam drilling operations, a hydrodynamic model is developed and run at different operating conditions. For this purpose, the flow of foam through the drilling system is modeled by invoking the basic principles of continuum mechanics and thermodynamics. The model was designed to allow gas and liquid flow at desired volumetric flow rates through the drillstring and annulus. Parametric studies are conducted in order to identify the most influential variables in the hydrodynamic modeling of foam flow.

  16. Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Erosion Induced by Hydrodynamic Cavitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, A.; Lantermann, U.; el Moctar, O.

    2015-12-01

    The present work aims to predict cavitation erosion using a numerical flow solver together with a new developed erosion model. The erosion model is based on the hypothesis that collapses of single cavitation bubbles near solid boundaries form high velocity microjets, which cause sonic impacts with high pressure amplitudes damaging the surface. The erosion model uses information from a numerical Euler-Euler flow simulation to predict erosion sensitive areas and assess the erosion aggressiveness of the flow. The obtained numerical results were compared to experimental results from tests of an axisymmetric nozzle.

  17. Some Numerical Aspects on Crowd Motion - The Hughes Model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-01-06

    Here, we study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [5] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an Eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori estimates for the solution. Second, we study radial solutions and identify a shock formation mechanism. Third, we illustrate the existence of congestion, the breakdown of the model, and the trend to the equilibrium. Finally, we propose a new numerical method and consider two numerical examples.

  18. Numerical Validation of Chemical Compositional Model for Wettability Alteration Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekbauov, Bakhbergen; Berdyshev, Abdumauvlen; Baishemirov, Zharasbek; Bau, Domenico

    2017-12-01

    Chemical compositional simulation of enhanced oil recovery and surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation processes is a complex task that involves solving dozens of equations for all grid blocks representing a reservoir. In the present work, we perform a numerical validation of the newly developed mathematical formulation which satisfies the conservation laws of mass and energy and allows applying a sequential solution approach to solve the governing equations separately and implicitly. Through its application to the numerical experiment using a wettability alteration model and comparisons with existing chemical compositional model's numerical results, the new model has proven to be practical, reliable and stable.

  19. Numerical Modelling and Measurement in a Test Secondary Settling Tank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, C.; Larsen, Torben; Petersen, O.

    1994-01-01

    sludge. Phenomena as free and hindered settling and the Bingham plastic characteristic of activated sludge suspensions are included in the numerical model. Further characterisation and test tank experiments are described. The characterisation experiments were designed to measure calibration parameters...... for model description of settling and density differences. In the test tank experiments, flow velocities and suspended sludge concentrations were measured with different tank inlet geomotry and hydraulic and sludge loads. The test tank experiments provided results for the calibration of the numerical model......A numerical model and measurements of flow and settling in activated sludge suspension is presented. The numerical model is an attempt to describe the complex and interrelated hydraulic and sedimentation phenomena by describing the turbulent flow field and the transport/dispersion of suspended...

  20. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-08-30

     To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. NUMERICAL MODELLING OF CHICKEN-FOOT FOUNDATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipman Tandjiria

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the chicken-foot foundation using the finite element method. The foundation is considered as a reinforced concrete slab resting on a number of reinforced concrete pipes filled with and surrounded by in-situ soil. The soil and the pipes were modelled by isoparametric solid elements while the slab was modelled by isoparametric thick-plate elements. The study was intended to illustrate the basic mechanism of the chicken-foot foundation. Three cases have been considered for the parametric studies. The parameters investigated are thickness of slab, length of pipes and spacing between pipes. It is shown that such a foundation improves the behaviour of the raft foundation. It is also found that all the parameters used in the parametric studies influence the behaviour of the chicken-foot foundation.

  2. Analytical and numerical modeling for flexible pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Geng

    2011-12-01

    The unbonded flexible pipe of eight layers, in which all the layers except the carcass layer are assumed to have isotropic properties, has been analyzed. Specifically, the carcass layer shows the orthotropic characteristics. The effective elastic moduli of the carcass layer have been developed in terms of the influence of deformation to stiffness. With consideration of the effective elastic moduli, the structure can be properly analyzed. Also the relative movements of tendons and relative displacements of wires in helical armour layer have been investigated. A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model has been presented to predict the response of flexible pipes under axial force and torque. Further, the friction and contact of interlayer have been considered. Comparison between the finite element model and experimental results obtained in literature has been given and discussed, which might provide practical and technical support for the application of unbonded flexible pipes.

  3. Numerical modeling of a vaporizing multicomponent droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megaridis, C. M.; Sirignano, W. A.

    The fundamental processes governing the energy, mass, and momentum exchange between the liquid and gas phases of vaporizing, multicomponent liquid droplets have been investigated. The axisymmetric configuration under consideration consists of an isolated multicomponent droplet vaporizing in a convective environment. The model considers different volatilities of the liquid components, variable liquid properties due to variation of the species concentrations, and non-Fickian multicomponent gaseous diffusion. The bicomponent droplet model was employed to examine the commonly used assumptions of unity Lewis number in the liquid phase and Fickian gaseous diffusion. It is found that the droplet drag coefficients, the vaporization rates, and the related transfer numbers are not influenced by the above assumptions in a significant way.

  4. REPFLO model evaluation, physical and numerical consistency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.N.; Holland, D.H.

    1978-11-01

    This report contains a description of some suggested changes and an evaluation of the REPFLO computer code, which models ground-water flow and nuclear-waste migration in and about a nuclear-waste repository. The discussion contained in the main body of the report is supplemented by a flow chart, presented in the Appendix of this report. The suggested changes are of four kinds: (1) technical changes to make the code compatible with a wider variety of digital computer systems; (2) changes to fill gaps in the computer code, due to missing proprietary subroutines; (3) changes to (a) correct programming errors, (b) correct logical flaws, and (c) remove unnecessary complexity; and (4) changes in the computer code logical structure to make REPFLO a more viable model from the physical point of view

  5. Numerical modeling of the debris flows runout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid debris flows are identified among the most dangerous of all landslides. Due to their destructive potential, the runout length has to be predicted to define the hazardous areas and design safeguarding measures. To this purpose, a continuum model to predict the debris flows mobility is developed. It is based on the well known depth-integrated avalanche model proposed by Savage and Hutter (S&H model to simulate the dry granular materials flows. Conservation of mass and momentum equations, describing the evolving geometry and the depth averaged velocity distribution, are re-written taking into account the effects of the interstitial pressures and the possible variation of mass along the motion due to erosion/deposition processes. Furthermore, the mechanical behaviour of the debris flow is described by a recently developed rheological law, which allows to take into account the dissipative effects of the grain inelastic collisions and friction, simultaneously acting within a ‘shear layer’, typically at the base of the debris flows. The governing PDEs are solved by applying the finite difference method. The analysis of a documented case is finally carried out.

  6. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  7. Complexities in coastal sediment transport studies by numerical modelling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ilangovan, D.; ManiMurali, R.

    equations arrived based on scientific principles as all natural phenomena are governed by certain rules which can be explained by scientific principles. Efficiency of numerical modeling greatly depends on quality of input parameters. When input parameters...

  8. Mathematical and numerical foundations of turbulence models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chacón Rebollo, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    With applications to climate, technology, and industry, the modeling and numerical simulation of turbulent flows are rich with history and modern relevance. The complexity of the problems that arise in the study of turbulence requires tools from various scientific disciplines, including mathematics, physics, engineering, and computer science. Authored by two experts in the area with a long history of collaboration, this monograph provides a current, detailed look at several turbulence models from both the theoretical and numerical perspectives. The k-epsilon, large-eddy simulation, and other models are rigorously derived and their performance is analyzed using benchmark simulations for real-world turbulent flows. Mathematical and Numerical Foundations of Turbulence Models and Applications is an ideal reference for students in applied mathematics and engineering, as well as researchers in mathematical and numerical fluid dynamics. It is also a valuable resource for advanced graduate students in fluid dynamics,...

  9. Summary of Numerical Modeling for Underground Nuclear Test Monitoring Symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, S.R.; Kamm, J.R.

    1993-01-01

    This document contains the Proceedings of the Numerical Modeling for Underground Nuclear Test Monitoring Symposium held in Durango, Colorado on March 23-25, 1993. The symposium was sponsored by the Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation of the United States Department of Energy and hosted by the Source Region Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss state-of-the-art advances in numerical simulations of nuclear explosion phenomenology for the purpose of test ban monitoring. Another goal of the symposium was to promote discussion between seismologists and explosion source-code calculators. Presentation topics include the following: numerical model fits to data, measurement and characterization of material response models, applications of modeling to monitoring problems, explosion source phenomenology, numerical simulations and seismic sources

  10. Guadalupe River, California, Sedimentation Study. Numerical Model Investigation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Copeland, Ronald

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact that the Guadalupe River flood-control project would have on channel stability in terms of channel aggradation and degradation...

  11. Numerical Modeling of Subglacial Sediment Deformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damsgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    may cause mass loss in the near future to exceed current best estimates. Ice flow in larger ice sheets focuses in fast-moving streams due to mechanical non-linearity of ice. These ice streams often move at velocities several magnitudes larger than surrounding ice and consequentially constitute...... glaciers move by deforming their sedimentary beds. Several modern ice streams, in particular, move as plug flows due to basal sediment deformation. An intense and long-winded discussion about the appropriate description for subglacial sediment mechanics followed this discovery, with good reason...... incompatible with commonly accepted till rheology models. Variation in pore-water pressure proves to cause reorganization in the internal stress network and leads to slow creeping deformation. The rate of creep is non-linearly dependent on the applied stresses. Granular creep can explain slow glacial...

  12. Reservoir Models for Gas Hydrate Numerical Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boswell, R.

    2016-12-01

    Scientific and industrial drilling programs have now providing detailed information on gas hydrate systems that will increasingly be the subject of field experiments. The need to carefully plan these programs requires reliable prediction of reservoir response to hydrate dissociation. Currently, a major emphasis in gas hydrate modeling is the integration of thermodynamic/hydrologic phenomena with geomechanical response for both reservoir and bounding strata. However, also critical to the ultimate success of these efforts is the appropriate development of input geologic models, including several emerging issues, including (1) reservoir heterogeneity, (2) understanding of the initial petrophysical characteristics of the system (reservoirs and seals), the dynamic evolution of those characteristics during active dissociation, and the interdependency of petrophysical parameters and (3) the nature of reservoir boundaries. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous aspect of every natural reservoir, and appropriate characterization is vital. However, heterogeneity is not random. Vertical variation can be evaluated with core and well log data; however, core data often are challenged by incomplete recovery. Well logs also provide interpretation challenges, particularly where reservoirs are thinly-bedded due to limitation in vertical resolution. This imprecision will extend to any petrophysical measurements that are derived from evaluation of log data. Extrapolation of log data laterally is also complex, and should be supported by geologic mapping. Key petrophysical parameters include porosity, permeability and it many aspects, and water saturation. Field data collected to date suggest that the degree of hydrate saturation is strongly controlled by/dependant upon reservoir quality and that the ratio of free to bound water in the remaining pore space is likely also controlled by reservoir quality. Further, those parameters will also evolve during dissociation, and not necessary in a simple

  13. Prognostic methods in medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, P. J.; Abu-Hanna, A.

    1999-01-01

    Prognosis--the prediction of the course and outcome of disease processes--plays an important role in patient management tasks like diagnosis and treatment planning. As a result, prognostic models form an integral part of a number of systems supporting these tasks. Furthermore, prognostic models

  14. Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

    2013-01-01

    We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....

  15. The Turbulent Interstellar Medium: Insights and Questions from Numerical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; de Avillez, Miguel A.; Korpi, Maarit J.

    2003-01-01

    "The purpose of numerical models is not numbers but insight." (Hamming) In the spirit of this adage, and of Don Cox's approach to scientific speaking, we discuss the questions that the latest generation of numerical models of the interstellar medium raise, at least for us. The energy source for the interstellar turbulence is still under discussion. We review the argument for supernovae dominating in star forming regions. Magnetorotational instability has been suggested as a way of coupling di...

  16. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  17. Polynomial model inversion control: numerical tests and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Novara, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    A novel control design approach for general nonlinear systems is described in this paper. The approach is based on the identification of a polynomial model of the system to control and on the on-line inversion of this model. Extensive simulations are carried out to test the numerical efficiency of the approach. Numerical examples of applicative interest are presented, concerned with control of the Duffing oscillator, control of a robot manipulator and insulin regulation in a type 1 diabetic p...

  18. Numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion during Hole Erosion Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Mercier, F.; Bonelli, S.; Golay, F.; Anselmet, F.; Philippe, P.; Borghi, R.

    2015-01-01

    This study focuses on the numerical modelling of concentrated leak erosion of a cohesive soil by a turbulent flow in axisymmetrical geometry, with application to the Hole Erosion Test (HET). The numerical model is based on adaptive remeshing of the water/soil interface to ensure accurate description of the mechanical phenomena occurring near the soil/water interface. The erosion law governing the interface motion is based on two erosion parameters: the critical shear stress and the erosion co...

  19. Soil remediation by heat injection: Experiments and numerical modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Betz, C.; Emmert, M.; Faerber, A. [Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany)] [and others

    1995-03-01

    In order to understand physical processes of thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction methods in porous media the isothermal, multiphase formulation for the numerical model MUFTE will be extended by a non-isothermal, multiphase-multicomponent formulation. In order to verify the numerical model, comparison with analytical solutions for well defined problems will be carried out. To identify relevant processes and their interactions, the results of the simulation will be compared with well controlled experiments with sophisticated measurement equipment in three different scales. The aim is to compare the different numerical solution techniques namely Finite Element versus Integral Finite Difference technique as implemented in MUFTE and TOUGH2 [9] respectively.

  20. Numerical approaches to expansion process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Alekseev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forage production is currently undergoing a period of intensive renovation and introduction of the most advanced technologies and equipment. More and more often such methods as barley toasting, grain extrusion, steaming and grain flattening, boiling bed explosion, infrared ray treatment of cereals and legumes, followed by flattening, and one-time or two-time granulation of the purified whole grain without humidification in matrix presses By grinding the granules. These methods require special apparatuses, machines, auxiliary equipment, created on the basis of different methods of compiled mathematical models. When roasting, simulating the heat fields arising in the working chamber, provide such conditions, the decomposition of a portion of the starch to monosaccharides, which makes the grain sweetish, but due to protein denaturation the digestibility of the protein and the availability of amino acids decrease somewhat. Grain is roasted mainly for young animals in order to teach them to eat food at an early age, stimulate the secretory activity of digestion, better development of the masticatory muscles. In addition, the high temperature is detrimental to bacterial contamination and various types of fungi, which largely avoids possible diseases of the gastrointestinal tract. This method has found wide application directly on the farms. Apply when used in feeding animals and legumes: peas, soy, lupine and lentils. These feeds are preliminarily ground, and then cooked or steamed for 1 hour for 30–40 minutes. In the feed mill. Such processing of feeds allows inactivating the anti-nutrients in them, which reduce the effectiveness of their use. After processing, legumes are used as protein supplements in an amount of 25–30% of the total nutritional value of the diet. But it is recommended to cook and steal a grain of good quality. A poor-quality grain that has been stored for a long time and damaged by pathogenic micro flora is subject to

  1. THE MODEL OF UNCLEAR EXPERT SYSTEM OF PROGNOSTICATION THE CONTENT OF EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan M. Tsidylo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of development of the expert system of prognostication of the educational content by means of fuzzy logic. It was the model of making decision by the group of experts in accordance to meaningfulness of the theme in the educational programme on the base of the hierarchical system that combines in itself the use of both unclear and stochastic data. The structure of the unclear system, function and mechanisms of construction of separate blocks of the model are described. The surface of review of the unclear system represents dependence of estimation of the theme meaningfulness on the level of competence of group of experts and size to the point at the permanent value of level’s variation. The testing of the controller on a test selection proves the functional fitness of the developed model.

  2. A simple numerical model of a geometrically nonlinear Timoshenko beam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keijdener, C.; Metrikine, A.

    2015-01-01

    In the original problem for which this model was developed, onedimensional flexible objects interact through a non-linear contact model. Due to the non-linear nature of the contact model, a numerical time-domain approach was adopted. One of the goals was to see if the coupling between axial and

  3. A modular approach to numerical human body modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Griotto, G.; Rooij, L. van

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a human body model for a simulated automotive impact scenario must take into account both accurate model response and computational efficiency as key factors. This study presents a "modular numerical human body modeling" approach which allows the creation of a customized human body

  4. Numerical simulations of a reduced model for blood coagulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlova, Jevgenija; Fasano, Antonio; Sequeira, Adélia

    2016-04-01

    In this work, the three-dimensional numerical resolution of a complex mathematical model for the blood coagulation process is presented. The model was illustrated in Fasano et al. (Clin Hemorheol Microcirc 51:1-14, 2012), Pavlova et al. (Theor Biol 380:367-379, 2015). It incorporates the action of the biochemical and cellular components of blood as well as the effects of the flow. The model is characterized by a reduction in the biochemical network and considers the impact of the blood slip at the vessel wall. Numerical results showing the capacity of the model to predict different perturbations in the hemostatic system are discussed.

  5. Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Wingbermühle (Roel); E. van Trijffel (Emiel); Nelissen, P.M. (Paul M.); B.W. Koes (Bart); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractQuestion: Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Design: Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. Participants: People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care.

  6. A prognostic model for soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall based on size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carneiro, Ana; Bendahl, Par-Ola; Engellau, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    type, necrosis, and grade. METHODS:: Whole-tumor sections from 239 soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities were reviewed for the following prognostic factors: size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern. A new prognostic model, referred to as SING (Size, Invasion, Necrosis, Growth......), was established and compared with other clinically applied systems. RESULTS:: Size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and peripheral tumor growth pattern provided independent prognostic information with hazard ratios of 2.2-2.6 for development of metastases in multivariate analysis. When these factors were combined...... into the prognostic model SING, high risk of metastasis was predicted with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 85%. Moreover, the prognostic performance of SING compared favorably with other widely used systems. CONCLUSIONS:: SING represents a promising prognostic model, and vascular invasion and tumor growth...

  7. Prognostic model for chronic hypertension in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, V S; Hermes, W; Twisk, J; Franx, A; van Pampus, M G; Koopmans, C; Mol, B W J; de Groot, C J M

    2017-10-01

    The association between hypertensive pregnancy disorders and cardiovascular disease later in life is well described. In this study we aim to develop a prognostic model from patients characteristics known before, early in, during and after pregnancy to identify women at increased risk of cardiovascular disease e.g. chronic hypertension years after pregnancy complicated by hypertension at term. We included women with a history of singleton pregnancy complicated by hypertension at term. Women using antihypertensive medication before pregnancy were excluded. We measured hypertension in these women more than 2years postpartum. Different patients characteristics before, early in, during and after pregnancy were considered to develop a prognostic model of chronic hypertension at 2-years. These included amongst others maternal age, blood pressure at pregnancy intake and blood pressure six weeks post-partum. Univariable analyses followed by a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which combination of predictors best predicted chronic hypertension. Model performance was assessed by calibration (graphical plot) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC)). Of the 305 women in who blood pressure 2.5years after pregnancy was assessed, 105 women (34%) had chronic hypertension. The following patient characteristics were significant associated with chronic hypertension: higher maternal age, lower education, negative family history on hypertensive pregnancy disorders, higher BMI at booking, higher diastolic blood pressure at pregnancy intake, higher systolic blood pressure during pregnancy and higher diastolic blood pressure at six weeks post-partum. These characteristics were included in the prognostic model for chronic hypertension. Model performance was good as indicated by good calibration and good discrimination (AUC; 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 - 0.92). Chronic hypertension can be expected from patient characteristics

  8. Mayo Alliance Prognostic Model for Myelodysplastic Syndromes: Integration of Genetic and Clinical Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tefferi, Ayalew; Gangat, Naseema; Mudireddy, Mythri; Lasho, Terra L; Finke, Christy; Begna, Kebede H; Elliott, Michelle A; Al-Kali, Aref; Litzow, Mark R; Hook, C Christopher; Wolanskyj, Alexandra P; Hogan, William J; Patnaik, Mrinal M; Pardanani, Animesh; Zblewski, Darci L; He, Rong; Viswanatha, David; Hanson, Curtis A; Ketterling, Rhett P; Tang, Jih-Luh; Chou, Wen-Chien; Lin, Chien-Chin; Tsai, Cheng-Hong; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Hou, Hsin-An

    2018-06-01

    To develop a new risk model for primary myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) that integrates information on mutations, karyotype, and clinical variables. Patients with World Health Organization-defined primary MDS seen at Mayo Clinic (MC) from December 28, 1994, through December 19, 2017, constituted the core study group. The National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) provided the validation cohort. Model performance, compared with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, was assessed by Akaike information criterion and area under the curve estimates. The study group consisted of 685 molecularly annotated patients from MC (357) and NTUH (328). Multivariate analysis of the MC cohort identified monosomal karyotype (hazard ratio [HR], 5.2; 95% CI, 3.1-8.6), "non-MK abnormalities other than single/double del(5q)" (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.6), RUNX1 (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1) and ASXL1 (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3) mutations, absence of SF3B1 mutations (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4), age greater than 70 years (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.1), hemoglobin level less than 8 g/dL in women or less than 9 g/dL in men (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1), platelet count less than 75 × 10 9 /L (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1), and 10% or more bone marrow blasts (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8) as predictors of inferior overall survival. Based on HR-weighted risk scores, a 4-tiered Mayo alliance prognostic model for MDS was devised: low (89 patients), intermediate-1 (104), intermediate-2 (95), and high (69); respective median survivals (5-year overall survival rates) were 85 (73%), 42 (34%), 22 (7%), and 9 months (0%). The Mayo alliance model was subsequently validated by using the external NTUH cohort and, compared with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, displayed favorable Akaike information criterion (1865 vs 1943) and area under the curve (0.87 vs 0.76) values. We propose a simple and contemporary risk model for MDS that is based on a limited set of genetic and clinical variables

  9. Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne A. M.; Stapelfeldt, Christina M.; Heymans, Martijn W.; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V.; Bultmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

    Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

  10. Numerical Modeling and Mechanical Analysis of Flexible Risers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available ABAQUS is used to create a detailed finite element model for a 10-layer unbonded flexible riser to simulate the riser’s mechanical behavior under three load conditions: tension force and internal and external pressure. It presents a technique to create detailed finite element model and to analyze flexible risers. In FEM model, all layers are modeled separately with contact interfaces; interaction between steel trips in certain layers has been considered as well. FEM model considering contact interaction, geometric nonlinearity, and friction has been employed to accurately simulate the structural behavior of riser. The model includes the main features of the riser geometry with very little simplifying assumptions. The model was solved using a fully explicit time-integration scheme implemented in a parallel environment on an eight-processor cluster and 24 G memory computer. There is a very good agreement obtained from numerical and analytical comparisons, which validates the use of numerical model here. The results from the numerical simulation show that the numerical model takes into account various details of the riser. It has been shown that the detailed finite element model can be used to predict riser’s mechanics behavior under various load cases and bound conditions.

  11. Optimization of a prognostic biosphere model for terrestrial biomass and atmospheric CO2 variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, M.; Ito, A.; Maksyutov, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the capacity of a prognostic biosphere model to simulate global variability in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and vegetation carbon dynamics under current environmental conditions. Global data sets of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, above-ground biomass (AGB), and net primary productivity (NPP) in terrestrial vegetation were assimilated into the biosphere model using an inverse modeling method combined with an atmospheric transport model. In this process, the optimal physiological parameters of the biosphere model were estimated by minimizing the misfit between observed and modeled values, and parameters were generated to characterize various biome types. Results obtained using the model with the optimized parameters correspond to the observed seasonal variations in CO 2 concentration and their annual amplitudes in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In simulating the mean annual AGB and NPP, the model shows improvements in estimating the mean magnitudes and probability distributions for each biome, as compared with results obtained using prior simulation parameters. However, the model is less efficient in its simulation of AGB for forest type biomes. This misfit suggests that more accurate values of input parameters, specifically, grid mean AGB values and seasonal variabilities in physiological parameters, are required to improve the performance of the simulation model. (authors)

  12. Numerical modelling of river morphodynamics: Latest developments and remaining challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siviglia, Annunziato; Crosato, Alessandra

    2016-07-01

    Numerical morphodynamic models provide scientific frameworks for advancing our understanding of river systems. The research on involved topics is an important and socially relevant undertaking regarding our environment. Nowadays numerical models are used for different purposes, from answering questions about basic morphodynamic research to managing complex river engineering problems. Due to increasing computer power and the development of advanced numerical techniques, morphodynamic models are now more and more used to predict the bed patterns evolution to a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. The development and the success of application of such models are based upon a wide range of disciplines from applied mathematics for the numerical solution of the equations to geomorphology for the physical interpretation of the results. In this light we organized this special issue (SI) soliciting multidisciplinary contributions which encompass any aspect needed for the development and applications of such models. Most of the papers in the SI stem from contributions to session HS9.5/GM7.11 on numerical modelling and experiments in river morphodynamics at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly held in Vienna, April 27th to May 2nd 2014.

  13. Nonspinning numerical relativity waveform surrogates: assessing the model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Scott; Blackman, Jonathan; Galley, Chad; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Tiglio, Manuel

    2015-04-01

    Recently, multi-modal gravitational waveform surrogate models have been built directly from data numerically generated by the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC). I will describe ways in which the surrogate model error can be quantified. This task, in turn, requires (i) characterizing differences between waveforms computed by SpEC with those predicted by the surrogate model and (ii) estimating errors associated with the SpEC waveforms from which the surrogate is built. Both pieces can have numerous sources of numerical and systematic errors. We make an attempt to study the most dominant error sources and, ultimately, the surrogate model's fidelity. These investigations yield information about the surrogate model's uncertainty as a function of time (or frequency) and parameter, and could be useful in parameter estimation studies which seek to incorporate model error. Finally, I will conclude by comparing the numerical relativity surrogate model to other inspiral-merger-ringdown models. A companion talk will cover the building of multi-modal surrogate models.

  14. Thermodynamic analysis and numerical modeling of supercritical injection

    OpenAIRE

    Banuti, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Although liquid propellant rocket engines are operational and have been studied for decades, cryogenic injection at supercritical pressures is still considered essentially not understood. This thesis intends to approach this problem in three steps: by developing a numerical model for real gas thermodynamics, by extending the present thermodynamic view of supercritical injection, and finally by applying these methods to the analysis of injection. A new numerical real gas thermodynamics mode...

  15. Numerical modeling of nitrogen oxide emission and experimental verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szecowka Lech

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of nitrogen reduction in combustion process with application of primary method are presented in paper. The reduction of NOx emission, by the recirculation of combustion gasses, staging of fuel and of air was investigated, and than the reduction of NOx emission by simultaneous usage of the mentioned above primary method with pulsatory disturbances.The investigations contain numerical modeling of NOx reduction and experimental verification of obtained numerical calculation results.

  16. Application of zero-inflated poisson mixed models in prognostic factors of hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbarzadeh Baghban, Alireza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma; Zayeri, Farid; Jafari, Ali Akbar; Alavian, Seyed Moayed

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005-2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.

  17. Numerical modelling of the HAB Energy Buoy: Stage 1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurniawan, Adi

    This report presents the results of the first stage of the project "Numerical modelling of the HAB Energy Buoy". The objectives of this stage are to develop a numerical model of the HAB Energy Buoy, a self-reacting wave energy device consisting of two heaving bodies, and to investigate a number...... and a summary of the main findings is presented. A numerical model of the HAB Energy Buoy has been developed in the frequency domain using two alternative formulations of the equations of motion. The model is capable of predicting the power capture, motion response, and power take-off loads of the device...... configuration are imposed to give a more realistic prediction of the power capture and help ensure a fair comparison. Recommendations with regard to the HAB design are finally suggested....

  18. Numerical modelling of the jet nozzle enrichment process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vercelli, P.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical model was developed for the simulation of the isotopic enrichment produced by the jet nozzle process. The flow was considered stationary and under ideal gas conditions. The model calculates, for any position of the skimmer piece: (a) values of radial mass concentration profiles for each isotopic species and (b) values of elementary separation effect (Σ sub(A)) and uranium cut (theta). The comparison of the numerical results obtained with the experimental values given in the literature proves the validity of the present work as an initial step in the modelling of the process. (Author) [pt

  19. Generalized Roe's numerical scheme for a two-fluid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toumi, I.; Raymond, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper is devoted to a mathematical and numerical study of a six equation two-fluid model. We will prove that the model is strictly hyperbolic due to the inclusion of the virtual mass force term in the phasic momentum equations. The two-fluid model is naturally written under a nonconservative form. To solve the nonlinear Riemann problem for this nonconservative hyperbolic system, a generalized Roe's approximate Riemann solver, is used, based on a linearization of the nonconservative terms. A Godunov type numerical scheme is built, using this approximate Riemann solver. 10 refs., 5 figs,

  20. Numerical Modelling of Flow and Settling in Secondary Settling Tanks

    OpenAIRE

    Dahl, Claus Poulsen

    1995-01-01

    Denne afhandling omhandler udviklingen af en numerisk model til simulering af efterklaringstanke. lndledningsvis er beskrevet status for udviklingen inden for numeriske modeller for efterklaring og den nuværende designpraksis. Resultatet af denne statusbeskrivelse er et behov for videre udvikling for at indføre numeriske modeller i design af efterklaringstanke og hermed forbedre efterklaringstanke i fremtiden. This thesis discusses the development of a numerical model for the simulation of...

  1. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  2. Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roos, A.M.; Diekmann, O.; Getto, P.; Kirkilionis, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured re- source. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries

  3. Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Roos, A.M.; Diekmann, O.; Getto, P.; Kirkilionis, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries

  4. Application of numerical modelling in SSM automotive brake calliper castings

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Jahajeeah, N

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical modelling has successfully been used as an efficient tool to convert a gravity cast brake calliper to a thixocasting process. The thixo-modue of Procast has been used for the modelling process to obtain optimum processing parameters...

  5. Some Numerical Aspects on Crowd Motion - The Hughes Model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Machado Velho, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Here, we study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [5] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an Eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori

  6. Numerical human model for impact and seating comfort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoof, J.F.A.M. van; Lange, R. de; Verver, M.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed numerical model of the human body that can be used to evaluate both safety and comfort aspects of vehicle interiors. The model is based on a combination of rigid body and finite element techniques to provide an optimal combination of computational efficiency and

  7. Numerical modelling of erosion and sedimentation around offshore pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Beek, F.A.; Wind, H.G.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper a numerical model is presented for the description of the erosion and sedimentation near pipelines on the sea bottom. The model is based on the Navier-Stokes equations and the equation of motion and continuity of sediment. The results of the simulations have been compared with the

  8. Multicollinearity in prognostic factor analyses using the EORTC QLQ-C30: identification and impact on model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Steen, Kristel; Curran, Desmond; Kramer, Jocelyn; Molenberghs, Geert; Van Vreckem, Ann; Bottomley, Andrew; Sylvester, Richard

    2002-12-30

    Clinical and quality of life (QL) variables from an EORTC clinical trial of first line chemotherapy in advanced breast cancer were used in a prognostic factor analysis of survival and response to chemotherapy. For response, different final multivariate models were obtained from forward and backward selection methods, suggesting a disconcerting instability. Quality of life was measured using the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire completed by patients. Subscales on the questionnaire are known to be highly correlated, and therefore it was hypothesized that multicollinearity contributed to model instability. A correlation matrix indicated that global QL was highly correlated with 7 out of 11 variables. In a first attempt to explore multicollinearity, we used global QL as dependent variable in a regression model with other QL subscales as predictors. Afterwards, standard diagnostic tests for multicollinearity were performed. An exploratory principal components analysis and factor analysis of the QL subscales identified at most three important components and indicated that inclusion of global QL made minimal difference to the loadings on each component, suggesting that it is redundant in the model. In a second approach, we advocate a bootstrap technique to assess the stability of the models. Based on these analyses and since global QL exacerbates problems of multicollinearity, we therefore recommend that global QL be excluded from prognostic factor analyses using the QLQ-C30. The prognostic factor analysis was rerun without global QL in the model, and selected the same significant prognostic factors as before. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS FOR AIR POLLUTION BY MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Scientific work involves: 1 development of 3D numerical models that allow calculating the process of air pollution by motor vehicles emissions; 2 creation of models which would allow predicting the air pollution level in urban areas. Methodology. To solve the problem upon assessing the level of air pollution by motor vehicles emissions fundamental equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer are used. For the solution of differential equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer finite-difference methods are used. For the numerical integration of the equation for the velocity potential the method of conditional approximations is applied. The equation for the velocity potential written in differential form, splits into two equations, where at each step of splitting an unknown value of the velocity potential is determined by an explicit scheme of running computation, while the difference scheme is implicit one. For the numerical integration of the emissions dispersion equation in the atmosphere applies the implicit alternating-triangular difference scheme of splitting. Emissions from the road are modeled by a series of point sources of given intensity. Developed numerical models form is the basis of the created software package. Findings. 3D numerical models were developed; they belong to the class of «diagnostic models». These models take into account main physical factors that influence the process of dispersion of harmful substances in the atmosphere when emissions from vehicles in the city occur. Based on the constructed numerical models the computational experiment was conducted to assess the level of air pollution in the street. Originality. Authors have developed numerical models that allow to calculate the 3D aerodynamics of the wind flow in urban areas and the process of mass transfer emissions from the highway. Calculations to determine the area of contamination, which is formed near the buildings, located along the highway were

  10. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, M.; Kwee, A.; Naaktgeboren, C.A.; Groot, I. de; Evers, I.M.; Groenendaal, F.; Hering, Y.R.; Huisjes, A.J.M.; Kirpestein, C.; Monincx, W.M.; Siljee, J.E.; Zelfde, A. van't; Oirschot, C.M. van; Vankan-Buitelaar, S.A.; Vonk, M.A.A.W.; Wiegers, T.A.; Zwart, J.J.; Franx, A.; Moons, K.G.M.; Koster, M.P.H.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. Design: External validation of all published prognostic models in

  11. Rapid installation of numerical models in multiple parent codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brannon, R.M.; Wong, M.K.

    1996-10-01

    A set of``model interface guidelines``, called MIG, is offered as a means to more rapidly install numerical models (such as stress-strain laws) into any parent code (hydrocode, finite element code, etc.) without having to modify the model subroutines. The model developer (who creates the model package in compliance with the guidelines) specifies the model`s input and storage requirements in a standardized way. For portability, database management (such as saving user inputs and field variables) is handled by the parent code. To date, NUG has proved viable in beta installations of several diverse models in vectorized and parallel codes written in different computer languages. A NUG-compliant model can be installed in different codes without modifying the model`s subroutines. By maintaining one model for many codes, MIG facilitates code-to-code comparisons and reduces duplication of effort potentially reducing the cost of installing and sharing models.

  12. Transitions in Prognostic Awareness Among Terminally Ill Cancer Patients in Their Last 6 Months of Life Examined by Multi-State Markov Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiu Chen, Chen; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Hou, Ming-Mo; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Jen-Shi; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Tang, Siew Tzuh

    2017-09-01

    Developing accurate prognostic awareness, a cornerstone of preference-based end-of-life (EOL) care decision-making, is a dynamic process involving more prognostic-awareness states than knowing or not knowing. Understanding the transition probabilities and time spent in each prognostic-awareness state can help clinicians identify trigger points for facilitating transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness. We examined transition probabilities in distinct prognostic-awareness states between consecutive time points in 247 cancer patients' last 6 months and estimated the time spent in each state. Prognostic awareness was categorized into four states: (a) unknown and not wanting to know, state 1; (b) unknown but wanting to know, state 2; (c) inaccurate awareness, state 3; and (d) accurate awareness, state 4. Transitional probabilities were examined by multistate Markov modeling. Initially, 59.5% of patients had accurate prognostic awareness, whereas the probabilities of being in states 1-3 were 8.1%, 17.4%, and 15.0%, respectively. Patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged (probabilities of remaining in the same state: 45.5%-92.9%). If prognostic awareness changed, it tended to shift toward higher prognostic-awareness states (probabilities of shifting to state 4 were 23.2%-36.6% for patients initially in states 1-3, followed by probabilities of shifting to state 3 for those in states 1 and 2 [9.8%-10.1%]). Patients were estimated to spend 1.29, 0.42, 0.68, and 3.61 months in states 1-4, respectively, in their last 6 months. Terminally ill cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged, with a tendency to become more aware of their prognosis. Health care professionals should facilitate patients' transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness in a timely manner to promote preference-based EOL decisions. Terminally ill Taiwanese cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained stable, with a tendency toward developing

  13. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the description of a 2-dimensional numerical model constructed for the simulation of beach evolution under the action of wind waves only over the arbitrary land and sea topographies around existing coastal structures and formations. The developed beach evolution numerical model...... is composed of 4 submodels: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on an energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations...... to compute the nearshore depth-averaged wave-induced current velocities and mean water level changes, a sediment transport model to compute the local total sediment transport rates occurring under the action of wind waves, and a bottom evolution model to compute the bed level changes in time based...

  14. A model-based prognostic approach to predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Dae Il; Yoon, Jeong Ah [Dept. of System Design and Control Engineering. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The reliability of electronic assemblies is largely affected by the health of interconnects, such as solder joints, which provide mechanical, electrical and thermal connections between circuit components. During field lifecycle conditions, interconnects are often subjected to a DC open circuit, one of the most common interconnect failure modes, due to cracking. An interconnect damaged by cracking is sometimes extremely hard to detect when it is a part of a daisy-chain structure, neighboring with other healthy interconnects that have not yet cracked. This cracked interconnect may seem to provide a good electrical contact due to the compressive load applied by the neighboring healthy interconnects, but it can cause the occasional loss of electrical continuity under operational and environmental loading conditions in field applications. Thus, cracked interconnects can lead to the intermittent failure of electronic assemblies and eventually to permanent failure of the product or the system. This paper introduces a model-based prognostic approach to quantitatively detect and predict interconnect failure using impedance analysis and particle filtering. Impedance analysis was previously reported as a sensitive means of detecting incipient changes at the surface of interconnects, such as cracking, based on the continuous monitoring of RF impedance. To predict the time to failure, particle filtering was used as a prognostic approach using the Paris model to address the fatigue crack growth. To validate this approach, mechanical fatigue tests were conducted with continuous monitoring of RF impedance while degrading the solder joints under test due to fatigue cracking. The test results showed the RF impedance consistently increased as the solder joints were degraded due to the growth of cracks, and particle filtering predicted the time to failure of the interconnects similarly to their actual timesto- failure based on the early sensitivity of RF impedance.

  15. The Liquid Film Flow with Evaporation: Numerical Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezanova Ekaterina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The flow of thin liquid layer on an inclined substrate is investigated numerically. The mathematical modelling is based on the Oberbeck-Boussinesq equations and the generalized conditions on the thermocapillary boundary simplified during the parametrical analysis. In the framework of the long-wave approximation the evolution equation which determines the thickness of the liquid layer in the case of moderate Reynolds numbers is derived. The results of numerical modelling of the liquid flow with evaporation at the interface are obtained.

  16. A numerical method for a transient two-fluid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Coq, G.; Libmann, M.

    1978-01-01

    The transient boiling two-phase flow is studied. In nuclear reactors, the driving conditions for the transient boiling are a pump power decay or/and an increase in heating power. The physical model adopted for the two-phase flow is the two fluid model with the assumption that the vapor remains at saturation. The numerical method for solving the thermohydraulics problems is a shooting method, this method is highly implicit. A particular problem exists at the boiling and condensation front. A computer code using this numerical method allow the calculation of a transient boiling initiated by a steady state for a PWR or for a LMFBR

  17. Calibration and verification of numerical runoff and erosion model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrić Ognjen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the field and laboratory measurements, and analogous with development of computational techniques, runoff and erosion models based on equations which describe the physics of the process are also developed. Based on the KINEROS2 model, this paper presents basic modelling principles of runoff and erosion processes based on the St. Venant's equations. Alternative equations for friction calculation, calculation of source and deposition elements and transport capacity are also shown. Numerical models based on original and alternative equations are calibrated and verified on laboratory scale model. According to the results, friction calculation based on the analytic solution of laminar flow must be included in all runoff and erosion models.

  18. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baars, E.W.; van der Hart, O.; Nijenhuis, E.R.S.; Chu, J.A.; Glas, G.; Draaijer, N.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID).We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex

  19. Prognostic model for patients treated for colorectal adenomas with regard to development of recurrent adenomas and carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, P; Krogsgaard, M R; Christiansen, J

    1996-01-01

    -80. INTERVENTIONS: All patients were followed up by rectoscopy and double contrast barium enema. The survival data were analysed by Cox's proportional hazards model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variables of significant prognostic importance for recurrence of adenomas and the development of cancer were identified...

  20. Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Stapelfeldt, C.M.; Heijmans, M.W.; van Rhenen, W.; Labriola, M.; Nielsen, C.V.; Bultmann, U.; Jensen, C.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models’ risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

  1. A novel approach towards fatigue damage prognostics of composite materials utilizing SHM data and stochastic degradation modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loutas, T.; Eleftheroglou, N.

    2016-01-01

    A prognostic framework is proposed in order to estimate the remaining useful life of composite materials under fatigue loading based on acoustic emission data and a sophisticated Non Homogenous Hidden Semi Markov Model. Bayesian neural networks are also utilized as an alternative machine learning

  2. Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinds, J.

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes the methods used to develop numerical grids of the unsaturated hydrogeologic system beneath Yucca Mountain. Numerical grid generation is an integral part of the development of a complex, three-dimensional (3-D) model, such as the Unsaturated-Zone Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model) of Yucca Mountain. The resulting numerical grids, developed using current geologic, hydrogeologic, and mineralogic data, provide the necessary framework to: (1) develop calibrated hydrogeologic property sets and flow fields, (2) test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport, and (3) predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal loading conditions. Revision 00 of the work described herein follows the planning and work direction outlined in the ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (CRWMS M and O 1999c). The technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is currently controlled by the planning document, ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department'' (BSC 2001 b, Addendum B, Section 4.1). The steps involved in numerical grid development include: (1) defining the location of important calibration features, (2) determining model grid layers and fault geometry based on the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Integrated Site Model (ISM), and definition of hydrogeologic units (HGUs), (3) analyzing and extracting GFM and ISM data pertaining to layer contacts and property distributions, (4) discretizing and refining the two-dimensional (2-D), plan-view numerical grid, (5) generating the 3-D grid with finer resolution at the repository horizon and within the Calico Hills nonwelded (CHn) hydrogeologic unit, and (6) formulating the dual-permeability mesh. The

  3. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  4. Numerical modelling of carbonate platforms and reefs: approaches and opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalmasso, H.; Montaggioni, L.F.; Floquet, M. [Universite de Provence, Marseille (France). Centre de Sedimentologie-Palaeontologie; Bosence, D. [Royal Holloway University of London, Egham (United Kingdom). Dept. of Geology

    2001-07-01

    This paper compares different computing procedures that have been utilized in simulating shallow-water carbonate platform development. Based on our geological knowledge we can usually give a rather accurate qualitative description of the mechanisms controlling geological phenomena. Further description requires the use of computer stratigraphic simulation models that allow quantitative evaluation and understanding of the complex interactions of sedimentary depositional carbonate systems. The roles of modelling include: (1) encouraging accuracy and precision in data collection and process interpretation (Watney et al., 1999); (2) providing a means to quantitatively test interpretations concerning the control of various mechanisms on producing sedimentary packages; (3) predicting or extrapolating results into areas of limited control; (4) gaining new insights regarding the interaction of parameters; (5) helping focus on future studies to resolve specific problems. This paper addresses two main questions, namely: (1) What are the advantages and disadvantages of various types of models? (2) How well do models perform? In this paper we compare and discuss the application of five numerical models: CARBONATE (Bosence and Waltham, 1990), FUZZIM (Nordlund, 1999), CARBPLAT (Bosscher, 1992), DYNACARB (Li et al., 1993), PHIL (Bowman, 1997) and SEDPAK (Kendall et al., 1991). The comparison, testing and evaluation of these models allow one to gain a better knowledge and understanding of controlling parameters of carbonate platform development, which are necessary for modelling. Evaluating numerical models, critically comparing results from models using different approaches, and pushing experimental tests to their limits, provide an effective vehicle to improve and develop new numerical models. A main feature of this paper is to closely compare the performance between two numerical models: a forward model (CARBONATE) and a fuzzy logic model (FUZZIM). These two models use common

  5. Prognostic model based on nailfold capillaroscopy for identifying Raynaud's phenomenon patients at high risk for the development of a scleroderma spectrum disorder: PRINCE (prognostic index for nailfold capillaroscopic examination).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingegnoli, Francesca; Boracchi, Patrizia; Gualtierotti, Roberta; Lubatti, Chiara; Meani, Laura; Zahalkova, Lenka; Zeni, Silvana; Fantini, Flavio

    2008-07-01

    To construct a prognostic index based on nailfold capillaroscopic examinations that is capable of predicting the 5-year transition from isolated Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) to RP secondary to scleroderma spectrum disorders (SSDs). The study involved 104 consecutive adult patients with a clinical history of isolated RP, and the index was externally validated in another cohort of 100 patients with the same characteristics. Both groups were followed up for 1-8 years. Six variables were examined because of their potential prognostic relevance (branching, enlarged and giant loops, capillary disorganization, microhemorrhages, and the number of capillaries). The only factors that played a significant prognostic role were the presence of giant loops (hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, P = 0.008) and microhemorrhages (HR 2.33, P = 0.01), and the number of capillaries (analyzed as a continuous variable). The adjusted prognostic role of these factors was evaluated by means of multivariate regression analysis, and the results were used to construct an algorithm-based prognostic index. The model was internally and externally validated. Our prognostic capillaroscopic index identifies RP patients in whom the risk of developing SSDs is high. This model is a weighted combination of different capillaroscopy parameters that allows physicians to stratify RP patients easily, using a relatively simple diagram to deduce the prognosis. Our results suggest that this index could be used in clinical practice, and its further inclusion in prospective studies will undoubtedly help in exploring its potential in predicting treatment response.

  6. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J.; Nieminen, R. [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  7. Behavioral modeling of SRIM tables for numerical simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinie, S., E-mail: sebastien.martinie@cea.fr; Saad-Saoud, T.; Moindjie, S.; Munteanu, D.; Autran, J.L., E-mail: jean-luc.autran@univ-amu.fr

    2014-03-01

    Highlights: • Behavioral modeling of SRIM data is performed on the basis of power polynomial fitting functions. • Fast and continuous numerical functions are proposed for the stopping power and projected range. • Functions have been successfully tested for a wide variety of ions and targets. • Typical accuracies below the percent have been obtained in the range 1 keV–1 GeV. - Abstract: This work describes a simple way to implement SRIM stopping power and range tabulated data in the form of fast and continuous numerical functions for intensive simulation. We provide here the methodology of this behavioral modeling as well as the details of the implementation and some numerical examples for ions in silicon target. Developed functions have been successfully tested and used for the simulation of soft errors in microelectronics circuits.

  8. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J; Nieminen, R [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  9. Behavioral modeling of SRIM tables for numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinie, S.; Saad-Saoud, T.; Moindjie, S.; Munteanu, D.; Autran, J.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Behavioral modeling of SRIM data is performed on the basis of power polynomial fitting functions. • Fast and continuous numerical functions are proposed for the stopping power and projected range. • Functions have been successfully tested for a wide variety of ions and targets. • Typical accuracies below the percent have been obtained in the range 1 keV–1 GeV. - Abstract: This work describes a simple way to implement SRIM stopping power and range tabulated data in the form of fast and continuous numerical functions for intensive simulation. We provide here the methodology of this behavioral modeling as well as the details of the implementation and some numerical examples for ions in silicon target. Developed functions have been successfully tested and used for the simulation of soft errors in microelectronics circuits

  10. Numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan Zhenghua

    1999-01-01

    Theoretical models have been developed to address several important aspects of numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread. The developed models include a pyrolysis model for charring and non-charring solid materials, a fast narrow band radiation property evaluation model (FASTNB) and a turbulence model for buoyant flow and flame. In the pyrolysis model, a completely new algorithm has been proposed, where a moving dual mesh concept was developed and implemented. With this new concept, it provides proper spatial resolution for both temperature and density and automatically considers the regression of the surface of the non-charring solid material during its pyrolysis. It is simple, very efficient and applicable to both charring and non-charring materials. FASTNB speeds up significantly the evaluation of narrow band spectral radiation properties and thus provides a potential of applying narrow band model in numerical simulations of practical turbulent combustion. The turbulence model was developed to improve the consideration of buoyancy effect on turbulence and turbulent transport. It was found to be simple, promising and numerically stable. It has been tested against both plane and axisymmetric thermal plumes and an axisymmetric buoyant diffusion flame. When compared with the widely used standard buoyancy-modified {kappa} - {epsilon} model, it gives significant improvement on numerical results. These developed models have been fully incorporated into CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code and coupled with other CFD sub-models, including the DT (Discrete Transfer) radiation model, EDC (Eddy Dissipation Concept) combustion model, flamelet combustion model, various soot models and transpired wall function. Comprehensive numerical simulations have been carried out to study soot formation and oxidation in turbulent buoyant diffusion flames, flame heat transfer and flame spread in fires. The gas temperature and velocity, soot volume fraction, wall

  11. An adaptive functional regression-based prognostic model for applications with missing data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiaolei; Zhou, Rensheng; Gebraeel, Nagi

    2015-01-01

    Most prognostic degradation models rely on a relatively accurate and comprehensive database of historical degradation signals. Typically, these signals are used to identify suitable degradation trends that are useful for predicting lifetime. In many real-world applications, these degradation signals are usually incomplete, i.e., contain missing observations. Often the amount of missing data compromises the ability to identify a suitable parametric degradation model. This paper addresses this problem by developing a semi-parametric approach that can be used to predict the remaining lifetime of partially degraded systems. First, key signal features are identified by applying Functional Principal Components Analysis (FPCA) to the available historical data. Next, an adaptive functional regression model is used to model the extracted signal features and the corresponding times-to-failure. The model is then used to predict remaining lifetimes and to update these predictions using real-time signals observed from fielded components. Results show that the proposed approach is relatively robust to significant levels of missing data. The performance of the model is evaluated and shown to provide significantly accurate predictions of residual lifetime using two case studies. - Highlights: • We model degradation signals with missing data with the goal of predicting remaining lifetime. • We examine two types of signal characteristics, fragmented and sparse. • We provide framework that updates remaining life predictions by incorporating real-time signal observations. • For the missing data, we show that the proposed model outperforms other benchmark models. • For the complete data, we show that the proposed model performs at least as good as a benchmark model

  12. Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

  13. Physical and numerical modeling of Joule-heated melters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyler, L.L.; Skarda, R.J.; Crowder, R.S. III; Trent, D.S.; Reid, C.R.; Lessor, D.L.

    1985-10-01

    The Joule-heated ceramic-lined melter is an integral part of the high level waste immobilization process under development by the US Department of Energy. Scaleup and design of this waste glass melting furnace requires an understanding of the relationships between melting cavity design parameters and the furnace performance characteristics such as mixing, heat transfer, and electrical requirements. Developing empirical models of these relationships through actual melter testing with numerous designs would be a very costly and time consuming task. Additionally, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has been developing numerical models that simulate a Joule-heated melter for analyzing melter performance. This report documents the method used and results of this modeling effort. Numerical modeling results are compared with the more conventional, physical modeling results to validate the approach. Also included are the results of numerically simulating an operating research melter at PNL. Physical Joule-heated melters modeling results used for qualiying the simulation capabilities of the melter code included: (1) a melter with a single pair of electrodes and (2) a melter with a dual pair (two pairs) of electrodes. The physical model of the melter having two electrode pairs utilized a configuration with primary and secondary electrodes. The principal melter parameters (the ratio of power applied to each electrode pair, modeling fluid depth, electrode spacing) were varied in nine tests of the physical model during FY85. Code predictions were made for five of these tests. Voltage drops, temperature field data, and electric field data varied in their agreement with the physical modeling results, but in general were judged acceptable. 14 refs., 79 figs., 17 tabs.

  14. Physical and numerical modeling of Joule-heated melters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyler, L.L.; Skarda, R.J.; Crowder, R.S. III; Trent, D.S.; Reid, C.R.; Lessor, D.L.

    1985-10-01

    The Joule-heated ceramic-lined melter is an integral part of the high level waste immobilization process under development by the US Department of Energy. Scaleup and design of this waste glass melting furnace requires an understanding of the relationships between melting cavity design parameters and the furnace performance characteristics such as mixing, heat transfer, and electrical requirements. Developing empirical models of these relationships through actual melter testing with numerous designs would be a very costly and time consuming task. Additionally, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has been developing numerical models that simulate a Joule-heated melter for analyzing melter performance. This report documents the method used and results of this modeling effort. Numerical modeling results are compared with the more conventional, physical modeling results to validate the approach. Also included are the results of numerically simulating an operating research melter at PNL. Physical Joule-heated melters modeling results used for qualiying the simulation capabilities of the melter code included: (1) a melter with a single pair of electrodes and (2) a melter with a dual pair (two pairs) of electrodes. The physical model of the melter having two electrode pairs utilized a configuration with primary and secondary electrodes. The principal melter parameters (the ratio of power applied to each electrode pair, modeling fluid depth, electrode spacing) were varied in nine tests of the physical model during FY85. Code predictions were made for five of these tests. Voltage drops, temperature field data, and electric field data varied in their agreement with the physical modeling results, but in general were judged acceptable. 14 refs., 79 figs., 17 tabs

  15. Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Teng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.

  16. Prognostic Modeling in Pathologic N1 Breast Cancer Without Elective Nodal Irradiation After Current Standard Systemic Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Won; Choi, Doo Ho; Huh, Seung Jae; Nam, Seok Jin; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kil, Won Ho; Im, Young-Hyuck; Ahn, Jin Seok; Park, Yeon Hee; Cho, Eun Yoon

    2015-08-01

    This study was conducted to establish a prognostic model in patients with pathologic N1 (pN1) breast cancer who have not undergone elective nodal irradiation (ENI) under the current standard management and to suggest possible indications for ENI. We performed a retrospective study with patients with pN1 breast cancer who received the standard local and preferred adjuvant chemotherapy treatment without neoadjuvant chemotherapy and ENI from January 2005 to June 2011. Most of the indicated patients received endocrine and trastuzumab therapy. In 735 enrolled patients, the median follow-up period was 58.4 months (range, 7.2-111.3 months). Overall, 55 recurrences (7.4%) developed, and locoregional recurrence was present in 27 patients (3.8%). Recurrence-free survival was significantly related to lymphovascular invasion (P = .04, hazard ratio [HR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.88), histologic grade (P = .03, HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.26), and nonluminal A subtype (P = .02, HR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.23-7.49) in multivariate analysis. The prognostic model was established by these 3 prognostic factors. Recurrence-free survival was less than 90% at 5 years in cases with 2 or 3 factors. The prognostic model has stratified risk groups in pN1 breast cancer without ENI. Patients with 2 or more factors should be considered for ENI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

  18. Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not

  19. Cross-national validation of prognostic models predicting sickness absence and the added value of work environment variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné A M; Stapelfeldt, Christina M; Heymans, Martijn W; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V; Bültmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

    2015-06-01

    To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. 2,562 municipal eldercare workers (95% women) participated in the Working in Eldercare Survey. Predictor variables were measured by questionnaire at baseline in 2005. Prognostic models were validated for predictions of high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes retrieved from employer records during 1-year follow-up. The accuracy of predictions was assessed by calibration graphs and the ability of the models to discriminate between high- and low-risk workers was investigated by ROC-analysis. The added value of work environment variables was measured with Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). 1,930 workers had complete data for analysis. The models underestimated the risk of high SA in eldercare workers and the SA episodes model had to be re-calibrated to the Danish data. Discrimination was practically useful for the re-calibrated SA episodes model, but not the SA days model. Physical workload improved the SA days model (IDI = 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.60) and psychosocial work factors, particularly the quality of leadership (IDI = 0.70; 95% CI 053-0.86) improved the SA episodes model. The prognostic model predicting high SA days showed poor performance even after physical workload was added. The prognostic model predicting high SA episodes could be used to identify high-risk workers, especially when psychosocial work factors are added as predictor variables.

  20. Model for prognostication of population irradiation dose at the soil way of long-living radionuclides including in food chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prister, B.S.; Vinogradskaya, V.D.

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of modern pictures of cesium and strontium ion absorption mechanisms a soil taking complex was build the kinetic model of radionuclide migration from soil to plants. Model parameter association with the agricultural chemistry properties of soil, represented by complex estimation of soil properties S e f. The example of model application for prognostication of population internal irradiation dose due to consumption of milk at the soil way of long-living radionuclides including in food chains

  1. Numerical model for the thermal behavior of thermocline storage tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehtiwesh, Ismael A. S.; Sousa, Antonio C. M.

    2018-03-01

    Energy storage is a critical factor in the advancement of solar thermal power systems for the sustained delivery of electricity. In addition, the incorporation of thermal energy storage into the operation of concentrated solar power systems (CSPs) offers the potential of delivering electricity without fossil-fuel backup even during peak demand, independent of weather conditions and daylight. Despite this potential, some areas of the design and performance of thermocline systems still require further attention for future incorporation in commercial CSPs, particularly, their operation and control. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a simple but efficient numerical model to allow the comprehensive analysis of thermocline storage systems aiming better understanding of their dynamic temperature response. The validation results, despite the simplifying assumptions of the numerical model, agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region. Three different cases are considered to test the versatility of the numerical model; for the particular type of a storage tank with top round impingement inlet, a simple analytical model was developed to take into consideration the increased turbulence level in the mixing region. The numerical predictions for the three cases are in general good agreement against the experimental results.

  2. Bubbles in inkjet printheads: analytical and numerical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeurissen, R.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    The phenomenon of nozzle failure of an inkjet printhead due to entrainment of air bubbles was studies using analytical and numerical models. The studied inkjet printheads consist of many channels in which an acoustic field is generated to eject a droplet. When an air bubble is entrained, it disrupts

  3. Bubbles in inkjet printheads : analytical and numerical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeurissen, R.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    The phenomenon of nozzle failure of an inkjet printhead due to entrainment of air bubbles was studies using analytical and numerical models. The studied inkjet printheads consist of many channels in which an acoustic field is generated to eject a droplet. When an air bubble is entrained, it disrupts

  4. Numerical modeling of secondary side thermohydraulics of horizontal steam generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melikhov, V.I.; Melikhov, O.I.; Nigmatulin, B.I. [Research and Engineering Centre of LWR Nuclear Plants Safety, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    A mathematical model for the transient three-dimensional secondary side thermal hydraulics of the horizontal steam generator has been developed. The calculations of the steam generator PGV-1000 and PGV-4 nominal regimes and comparison of numerical and experimental results have been carried out. 7 refs.

  5. LED-based Photometric Stereo: Modeling, Calibration and Numerical Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quéau, Yvain; Durix, Bastien; Wu, Tao

    2018-01-01

    We conduct a thorough study of photometric stereo under nearby point light source illumination, from modeling to numerical solution, through calibration. In the classical formulation of photometric stereo, the luminous fluxes are assumed to be directional, which is very difficult to achieve in pr...

  6. Numerical modeling of secondary side thermohydraulics of horizontal steam generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melikhov, V I; Melikhov, O I; Nigmatulin, B I [Research and Engineering Centre of LWR Nuclear Plants Safety, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    A mathematical model for the transient three-dimensional secondary side thermal hydraulics of the horizontal steam generator has been developed. The calculations of the steam generator PGV-1000 and PGV-4 nominal regimes and comparison of numerical and experimental results have been carried out. 7 refs.

  7. Development of numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    P. Dobson

    2004-01-01

    This report describes the methods used to develop numerical grids of the unsaturated hydrogeologic system beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Numerical grid generation is an integral part of the development of the unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport model, a complex, three-dimensional (3-D) model of Yucca Mountain. This revision contains changes made to improve the clarity of the description of grid generation. The numerical grids, developed using current geologic, hydrogeologic, and mineralogic data, provide the necessary framework to: (1) develop calibrated hydrogeologic property sets and flow fields, (2) test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport, and (3) predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions. The technical scope, content, and management for the current revision of this report are described in the planning document ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654], Section 2). Grids generated and documented in this report supersede those documented in Revision 00 of this report, ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (BSC 2001 [DIRS 159356]). The grids presented in this report are the same as those developed in Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160109]); however, the documentation of the development of the grids in Revision 02 has been updated to address technical inconsistencies and achieve greater transparency, readability, and traceability. The constraints, assumptions, and limitations associated with this report are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow

  8. Physical and numerical modelling of low mach number compressible flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paillerre, H.; Clerc, S.; Dabbene, F.; Cueto, O.

    1999-01-01

    This article reviews various physical models that may be used to describe compressible flow at low Mach numbers, as well as the numerical methods developed at DRN to discretize the different systems of equations. A selection of thermal-hydraulic applications illustrate the need to take into account compressibility and multidimensional effects as well as variable flow properties. (authors)

  9. Numerical Modeling of Multi-Material Active Magnetic Regeneration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Engelbrecht, Kurt; Bahl, Christian Robert Haffenden

    2009-01-01

    and the specific heat as a function of temperature at constant magnetic field. A 2.5-dimensional numerical model of an active magnetic regenerative (AMR) refrigerator device is presented. The experimental AMR located at Risø DTU has been equipped with a parallel-plate based regenerator made of the two materials...

  10. Experimental program for physics-of-failure modeling of electrolytic capacitors towards prognostics and health management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rana, Y.S.; Banerjee, Shantanab; Singh, Tej; Varde, P.V.

    2017-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a method used for predicting reliability of a component or system by assessing its current health and future operating conditions. A physics-of-failure (PoF)-based program on PHM for reliability prediction has been initiated at our institute. As part of the program, we aim at developing PoF-based models for degradation of electronic components and their experimental validation. In this direction, a database on existing PoF models for different electronic components has been prepared. We plan to experimentally determine the model constants and propose suitable methodology for PHM. Electrolytic capacitors are one of the most common passive components which find their applications in devices such as power supplies in aircrafts and printed circuit boards (PCBs) for regulation and protection of a nuclear reactor. Experimental studies have established that electrolytic capacitors degrade under electrical and thermal stress and tend to fail before their anticipated useful life at normal operating conditions. Equivalent series resistance (ESR) and capacitance (C) are the two main parameters used for monitoring health of such capacitors. In this paper, we present an experimental program for thermal and electrical overstress studies towards degradation models for electrolytic capacitors. (author)

  11. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew John; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

  12. Development and validation of prognostic models in metastatic breast cancer: a GOCS study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, M; Vallejo, C; Bianco, A; Perez, J; Machiavelli, M; Leone, B; Romero, A; Rodriguez, R; Cuevas, M; Dansky, C

    1992-01-01

    The significance of several prognostic factors and the magnitude of their influence on response rate and survival were assessed by means of uni- and multivariate analyses in 362 patients with stage IV (UICC) breast carcinoma receiving combination chemotherapy as first systemic treatment over an 8-year period. Univariate analyses identified performance status and prior adjuvant radiotherapy as predictors of objective regression (OR), whereas the performance status, prior chemotherapy and radiotherapy (adjuvants), white blood cells count, SGOT and SGPT levels, and metastatic pattern were significantly correlated to survival. In multivariate analyses favorable characteristics associated to OR were prior adjuvant radiotherapy, no prior chemotherapy and postmenopausal status. Regarding survival, the performance status and visceral involvement were selected by the Cox model. The predictive accuracy of the logistic and the proportional hazards models was retrospectively tested in the training sample, and prospectively in a new population of 126 patients also receiving combined chemotherapy as first treatment for metastatic breast cancer. A certain overfitting to data in the training sample was observed with the regression model for response. However, the discriminative ability of the Cox model for survival was clearly confirmed.

  13. Numeral eddy current sensor modelling based on genetic neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Along

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a method used to the numeral eddy current sensor modelling based on the genetic neural network to settle its nonlinear problem. The principle and algorithms of genetic neural network are introduced. In this method, the nonlinear model parameters of the numeral eddy current sensor are optimized by genetic neural network (GNN) according to measurement data. So the method remains both the global searching ability of genetic algorithm and the good local searching ability of neural network. The nonlinear model has the advantages of strong robustness, on-line modelling and high precision. The maximum nonlinearity error can be reduced to 0.037% by using GNN. However, the maximum nonlinearity error is 0.075% using the least square method

  14. Numerical modeling of batch formation in waste incineration plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obroučka Karel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is a mathematical description of algorithm for controlled assembly of incinerated batch of waste. The basis for formation of batch is selected parameters of incinerated waste as its calorific value or content of pollutants or the combination of both. The numerical model will allow, based on selected criteria, to compile batch of wastes which continuously follows the previous batch, which is a prerequisite for optimized operation of incinerator. The model was prepared as for waste storage in containers, as well as for waste storage in continuously refilled boxes. The mathematical model was developed into the computer program and its functionality was verified either by practical measurements or by numerical simulations. The proposed model can be used in incinerators for hazardous and municipal waste.

  15. The Finite Element Numerical Modelling of 3D Magnetotelluric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligang Cao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ideal numerical simulation of 3D magnetotelluric was restricted by the methodology complexity and the time-consuming calculation. Boundary values, the variation of weighted residual equation, and the hexahedral mesh generation method of finite element are three major causes. A finite element method for 3D magnetotelluric numerical modeling is presented in this paper as a solution for the problem mentioned above. In this algorithm, a hexahedral element coefficient matrix for magnetoelluric finite method is developed, which solves large-scale equations using preconditioned conjugate gradient of the first-type boundary conditions. This algorithm is verified using the homogeneous model, and the positive landform model, as well as the low resistance anomaly model.

  16. Numerical modelling of damage evolution in ingot forging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Peter; Martins, Paulo A.F.; Bay, Niels Oluf

    2015-01-01

    The ingot forging process is numerically simulated applying both the Shima-Oyane porous plasticity model as a coupled damage model and the uncoupled normalized Cockcroft & Latham criterion. Four different cases including two different lower die angles (120º and 180º) and two different sizes of feed...... (400mm and 800mm) are analysed. Comparison of the simulation results with recommendations in literature on ingot forging, indicates the normalized Cockcroft & Latham damage criterion to be the most realistic of the two....

  17. Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

    2014-02-01

    Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

  18. Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment scale (ds-GPA) for patients with melanoma brain metastasis (BM) utilizes only 2 key prognostic variables: Karnofsky performance status and the number of intracranial metastases. We wished to determine whether inclusion of cumulative ...

  19. A prognostic model for soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall based on size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carneiro, Ana; Bendahl, Par-Ola; Engellau, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    type, necrosis, and grade. METHODS:: Whole-tumor sections from 239 soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities were reviewed for the following prognostic factors: size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern. A new prognostic model, referred to as SING (Size, Invasion, Necrosis, Growth...

  20. Numerical modeling of oil spills in continental and estuarine waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeury, C.

    2012-10-01

    The application of the European Water Framework Directive on water quality for human consumption and industrial activities creates a need for water quality assessment and monitoring systems. The MIGR'HYCAR research project (http://www.migrhycar.com) was initiated to provide decisional tools for risks connected to oil spills in continental waters (rivers, lakes and estuaries), which represent more than 50% of accidental spills in France. Within the framework of this project, a new numerical oil spill model has been developed, as part of the TELEMAC hydro-informatics system (http://www.opentelemac.org), by combining Lagrangian and Eulerian methods. The Lagrangian model describes the transport of an oil spill near the free surface. The oil spill model enables to simulate the main processes driving oil plumes: advection, diffusion, oil beaching, oil re-floating, evaporation, dissolution, spreading and volatilization. Though generally considered as a minor process, dissolution is important from the point of view of toxicity. To model dissolved oil in water, an Eulerian advection-diffusion model is used. The fraction of dissolved oil is represented by a passive tracer. This approach is able to follow dissolved hydrocarbons in the water column. Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise the numerous kinetics of the processes listed above. In addition, meso-scale dynamic experiments in artificial channels and test cases derived from the literature are used to validate the numerical model. (author)

  1. Analysis and modeling of subgrid scalar mixing using numerical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girimaji, Sharath S.; Zhou, YE

    1995-01-01

    Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of passive scalar mixing in isotropic turbulence is used to study, analyze and, subsequently, model the role of small (subgrid) scales in the mixing process. In particular, we attempt to model the dissipation of the large scale (supergrid) scalar fluctuations caused by the subgrid scales by decomposing it into two parts: (1) the effect due to the interaction among the subgrid scales; and (2) the effect due to interaction between the supergrid and the subgrid scales. Model comparisons with DNS data show good agreement. This model is expected to be useful in the large eddy simulations of scalar mixing and reaction.

  2. Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov model: a theoretical and numerical perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, S.

    2012-01-01

    This work is devoted to the theoretical and numerical study of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) theory for attractive quantum systems, which is one of the main methods in nuclear physics. We first present the model and its main properties, and then explain how to get numerical solutions. We prove some convergence results, in particular for the simple fixed point algorithm (sometimes called Roothaan). We show that it converges, or oscillates between two states, none of them being a solution. This generalizes to the HFB case previous results of Cances and Le Bris for the simpler Hartree-Fock model in the repulsive case. Following these authors, we also propose a relaxed constraint algorithm for which convergence is guaranteed. In the last part of the thesis, we illustrate the behavior of these algorithms by some numerical experiments. We first consider a system where the particles only interact through the Newton potential. Our numerical results show that the pairing matrix never vanishes, a fact that has not yet been proved rigorously. We then study a very simplified model for protons and neutrons in a nucleus. (author)

  3. Development of a prognostic model for predicting spontaneous singleton preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, Jelle M; Ravelli, Anita C J; Mol, Ben Willem J; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2012-10-01

    To develop and validate a prognostic model for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth. Prospective cohort study using data of the nationwide perinatal registry in The Netherlands. We studied 1,524,058 singleton pregnancies between 1999 and 2007. We developed a multiple logistic regression model to estimate the risk of spontaneous preterm birth based on maternal and pregnancy characteristics. We used bootstrapping techniques to internally validate our model. Discrimination (AUC), accuracy (Brier score) and calibration (calibration graphs and Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic) were used to assess the model's predictive performance. Our primary outcome measure was spontaneous preterm birth at model included 13 variables for predicting preterm birth. The predicted probabilities ranged from 0.01 to 0.71 (IQR 0.02-0.04). The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63 (95% CI 0.63-0.63), the Brier score was 0.04 (95% CI 0.04-0.04) and the Hosmer Lemeshow C-statistic was significant (pvalues of predicted probability. The positive predictive value was 26% (95% CI 20-33%) for the 0.4 probability cut-off point. The model's discrimination was fair and it had modest calibration. Previous preterm birth, drug abuse and vaginal bleeding in the first half of pregnancy were the most important predictors for spontaneous preterm birth. Although not applicable in clinical practice yet, this model is a next step towards early prediction of spontaneous preterm birth that enables caregivers to start preventive therapy in women at higher risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Numerical models for fluid-grains interactions: opportunities and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteghamatian, Amir; Rahmani, Mona; Wachs, Anthony

    2017-06-01

    In the framework of a multi-scale approach, we develop numerical models for suspension flows. At the micro scale level, we perform particle-resolved numerical simulations using a Distributed Lagrange Multiplier/Fictitious Domain approach. At the meso scale level, we use a two-way Euler/Lagrange approach with a Gaussian filtering kernel to model fluid-solid momentum transfer. At both the micro and meso scale levels, particles are individually tracked in a Lagrangian way and all inter-particle collisions are computed by a Discrete Element/Soft-sphere method. The previous numerical models have been extended to handle particles of arbitrary shape (non-spherical, angular and even non-convex) as well as to treat heat and mass transfer. All simulation tools are fully-MPI parallel with standard domain decomposition and run on supercomputers with a satisfactory scalability on up to a few thousands of cores. The main asset of multi scale analysis is the ability to extend our comprehension of the dynamics of suspension flows based on the knowledge acquired from the high-fidelity micro scale simulations and to use that knowledge to improve the meso scale model. We illustrate how we can benefit from this strategy for a fluidized bed, where we introduce a stochastic drag force model derived from micro-scale simulations to recover the proper level of particle fluctuations. Conversely, we discuss the limitations of such modelling tools such as their limited ability to capture lubrication forces and boundary layers in highly inertial flows. We suggest ways to overcome these limitations in order to enhance further the capabilities of the numerical models.

  5. Numerical Analysis of Electromagnetic Fields in Multiscale Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Ji; Fang Guang-You; Ji Yi-Cai

    2015-01-01

    Modeling technique for electromagnetic fields excited by antennas is an important topic in computational electromagnetics, which is concerned with the numerical solution of Maxwell's equations. In this paper, a novel hybrid technique that combines method of moments (MoM) with finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method is presented to handle the problem. This approach employed Huygen's principle to realize the hybridization of the two classical numerical algorithms. For wideband electromagnetic data, the interpolation scheme is used in the MoM based on the dyadic Green's function. On the other hand, with the help of equivalence principle, the scattered electric and magnetic fields on the Huygen's surface calculated by MoM are taken as the sources for FDTD. Therefore, the electromagnetic fields in the environment can be obtained by employing finite-difference time-domain method. Finally, numerical results show the validity of the proposed technique by analyzing two canonical samples. (paper)

  6. Numerical modeling and experimental validation of thermoplastic composites induction welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmieri, Barbara; Nele, Luigi; Galise, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    In this work, a numerical simulation and experimental test of the induction welding of continuous fibre-reinforced thermoplastic composites (CFRTPCs) was provided. The thermoplastic Polyamide 66 (PA66) with carbon fiber fabric was used. Using a dedicated software (JMag Designer), the influence of the fundamental process parameters such as temperature, current and holding time was investigated. In order to validate the results of the simulations, and therefore the numerical model used, experimental tests were carried out, and the temperature values measured during the tests were compared with the aid of an optical pyrometer, with those provided by the numerical simulation. The mechanical properties of the welded joints were evaluated by single lap shear tests.

  7. Direct numerical methods of mathematical modeling in mechanical structural design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahili, Jihad; Verchery, Georges; Ghaddar, Ahmad; Zoaeter, Mohamed

    2002-01-01

    Full text.Structural design and numerical methods are generally interactive; requiring optimization procedures as the structure is analyzed. This analysis leads to define some mathematical terms, as the stiffness matrix, which are resulting from the modeling and then used in numerical techniques during the dimensioning procedure. These techniques and many others involve the calculation of the generalized inverse of the stiffness matrix, called also the 'compliance matrix'. The aim of this paper is to introduce first, some different existing mathematical procedures, used to calculate the compliance matrix from the stiffness matrix, then apply direct numerical methods to solve the obtained system with the lowest computational time, and to compare the obtained results. The results show a big difference of the computational time between the different procedures

  8. On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

    The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

  9. Numerical modelling of flow and transport in rough fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Briggs

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of flow and transport through rough walled rock fractures is investigated using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM and random walk (RW, respectively. The numerical implementation is developed and validated on general purpose graphic processing units (GPGPUs. Both the LBM and RW method are well suited to parallel implementation on GPGPUs because they require only next-neighbour communication and thus can reduce expenses. The LBM model is an order of magnitude faster on GPGPUs than published results for LBM simulations run on modern CPUs. The fluid model is verified for parallel plate flow, backward facing step and single fracture flow; and the RW model is verified for point-source diffusion, Taylor-Aris dispersion and breakthrough behaviour in a single fracture. Both algorithms place limitations on the discrete displacement of fluid or particle transport per time step to minimise the numerical error that must be considered during implementation.

  10. Customer requirement modeling and mapping of numerical control machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqi Sheng

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to better obtain information about customer requirement and develop products meeting customer requirement, it is necessary to systematically analyze and handle the customer requirement. This article uses the product service system of numerical control machine as research objective and studies the customer requirement modeling and mapping oriented toward configuration design. It introduces the conception of requirement unit, expounds the customer requirement decomposition rules, and establishes customer requirement model; it builds the house of quality using quality function deployment and confirms the weight of technical feature of product and service; it explores the relevance rules between data using rough set theory, establishes rule database, and solves the target value of technical feature of product. Using economical turning center series numerical control machine as an example, it verifies the rationality of proposed customer requirement model.

  11. Modern Perspectives on Numerical Modeling of Cardiac Pacemaker Cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maltsev, Victor A.; Yaniv, Yael; Maltsev, Anna V.; Stern, Michael D.; Lakatta, Edward G.

    2015-01-01

    Cardiac pacemaking is a complex phenomenon that is still not completely understood. Together with experimental studies, numerical modeling has been traditionally used to acquire mechanistic insights in this research area. This review summarizes the present state of numerical modeling of the cardiac pacemaker, including approaches to resolve present paradoxes and controversies. Specifically we discuss the requirement for realistic modeling to consider symmetrical importance of both intracellular and cell membrane processes (within a recent “coupled-clock” theory). Promising future developments of the complex pacemaker system models include the introduction of local calcium control, mitochondria function, and biochemical regulation of protein phosphorylation and cAMP production. Modern numerical and theoretical methods such as multi-parameter sensitivity analyses within extended populations of models and bifurcation analyses are also important for the definition of the most realistic parameters that describe a robust, yet simultaneously flexible operation of the coupled-clock pacemaker cell system. The systems approach to exploring cardiac pacemaker function will guide development of new therapies, such as biological pacemakers for treating insufficient cardiac pacemaker function that becomes especially prevalent with advancing age. PMID:24748434

  12. Numerical modeling of the 2017 active seismic infrasound balloon experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brissaud, Q.; Komjathy, A.; Garcia, R.; Cutts, J. A.; Pauken, M.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Mimoun, D.; Jackson, J. M.; Lai, V. H.; Kedar, S.; Levillain, E.

    2017-12-01

    We have developed a numerical tool to propagate acoustic and gravity waves in a coupled solid-fluid medium with topography. It is a hybrid method between a continuous Galerkin and a discontinuous Galerkin method that accounts for non-linear atmospheric waves, visco-elastic waves and topography. We apply this method to a recent experiment that took place in the Nevada desert to study acoustic waves from seismic events. This experiment, developed by JPL and its partners, wants to demonstrate the viability of a new approach to probe seismic-induced acoustic waves from a balloon platform. To the best of our knowledge, this could be the only way, for planetary missions, to perform tomography when one faces challenging surface conditions, with high pressure and temperature (e.g. Venus), and thus when it is impossible to use conventional electronics routinely employed on Earth. To fully demonstrate the effectiveness of such a technique one should also be able to reconstruct the observed signals from numerical modeling. To model the seismic hammer experiment and the subsequent acoustic wave propagation, we rely on a subsurface seismic model constructed from the seismometers measurements during the 2017 Nevada experiment and an atmospheric model built from meteorological data. The source is considered as a Gaussian point source located at the surface. Comparison between the numerical modeling and the experimental data could help future mission designs and provide great insights into the planet's interior structure.

  13. A review of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Kavanagh

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Modelling has been used in the study of volcanic systems for more than 100 years, building upon the approach first applied by Sir James Hall in 1815. Informed by observations of volcanological phenomena in nature, including eye-witness accounts of eruptions, geophysical or geodetic monitoring of active volcanoes, and geological analysis of ancient deposits, laboratory and numerical models have been used to describe and quantify volcanic and magmatic processes that span orders of magnitudes of time and space. We review the use of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanological research, focussing on sub-surface and eruptive processes including the accretion and evolution of magma chambers, the propagation of sheet intrusions, the development of volcanic flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars, volcanic plume formation, and ash dispersal. When first introduced into volcanology, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations marked a transition in approach from broadly qualitative to increasingly quantitative research. These methods are now widely used in volcanology to describe the physical and chemical behaviours that govern volcanic and magmatic systems. Creating simplified models of highly dynamical systems enables volcanologists to simulate and potentially predict the nature and impact of future eruptions. These tools have provided significant insights into many aspects of the volcanic plumbing system and eruptive processes. The largest scientific advances in volcanology have come from a multidisciplinary approach, applying developments in diverse fields such as engineering and computer science to study magmatic and volcanic phenomena. A global effort in the integration of laboratory and numerical volcano modelling is now required to tackle key problems in volcanology and points towards the importance of benchmarking exercises and the need for protocols to be developed so that models are routinely tested against real

  14. A review of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Janine L.; Engwell, Samantha L.; Martin, Simon A.

    2018-04-01

    Modelling has been used in the study of volcanic systems for more than 100 years, building upon the approach first applied by Sir James Hall in 1815. Informed by observations of volcanological phenomena in nature, including eye-witness accounts of eruptions, geophysical or geodetic monitoring of active volcanoes, and geological analysis of ancient deposits, laboratory and numerical models have been used to describe and quantify volcanic and magmatic processes that span orders of magnitudes of time and space. We review the use of laboratory and numerical modelling in volcanological research, focussing on sub-surface and eruptive processes including the accretion and evolution of magma chambers, the propagation of sheet intrusions, the development of volcanic flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars), volcanic plume formation, and ash dispersal. When first introduced into volcanology, laboratory experiments and numerical simulations marked a transition in approach from broadly qualitative to increasingly quantitative research. These methods are now widely used in volcanology to describe the physical and chemical behaviours that govern volcanic and magmatic systems. Creating simplified models of highly dynamical systems enables volcanologists to simulate and potentially predict the nature and impact of future eruptions. These tools have provided significant insights into many aspects of the volcanic plumbing system and eruptive processes. The largest scientific advances in volcanology have come from a multidisciplinary approach, applying developments in diverse fields such as engineering and computer science to study magmatic and volcanic phenomena. A global effort in the integration of laboratory and numerical volcano modelling is now required to tackle key problems in volcanology and points towards the importance of benchmarking exercises and the need for protocols to be developed so that models are routinely tested against real world data.

  15. Modelization and numerical simulation of atmospheric aerosols dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debry, Edouard

    2004-01-01

    Chemical-transport models are now able to describe in a realistic way gaseous pollutants behavior in the atmosphere. Nevertheless atmospheric pollution also exists as a fine suspended particles, called aerosols which interact with gaseous phase, solar radiation, and have their own dynamic behavior. The goal of this thesis is the modelization and numerical simulation of the General Dynamic Equation of aerosols (GDE). Part I deals with some theoretical aspects of aerosol modelization. Part II is dedicated to the building of one size resolved aerosol model (SIREAM). In part III we perform the reduction of this model in order to use it in dispersion models as POLAIR3D. Several modelization issues are still opened: organic aerosol matter, externally mixed aerosols, coupling with turbulent mixing, and nano-particles. (author) [fr

  16. Analysis of acute myocardial infarction occurance in Saratov region using GIS-technologies and prognostic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SokolovI.M.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available

     

    The research objective: To find estimation tools of incidence of acute myocardial infarction at the regional level and to optimize organization of medical assistance to patients with acute coronary pathology. Materials. With the use of statistics of territorial distribution of acute myocardial infarction incidence in the region and GIS-TECHNOLOGIES the statistical analysis and mathematical modelling of the spatially-organizational data has been carried out. Results. On the basis of the received results the prognostic model of development of acute coronary pathology has been generated. Measures on optimization of organization of medical assistance to patients with an acute coronary pathology have been stated. Conclusion. Methods of intellectual support of the doctor may become effective in formation of organizational structure of the system of stage-by-stage qualified and specialized aid to patients with acute coronary syndrome.

  17. Physicochemical and numerical modeling of electrokinetics in inhomogenous matrices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel

    A physicochemical model has been proposed based on the Nernst-Planck-Poisson system. The model includes the transport of water through the porous media, the monitoring of the degree of saturation, the pH value and the porosity throughout the domain; and a comprehensive set of chemical and electrochemical reactions...... is mainly based on a finite elements method for the integration of the transient system of partial differential equations coupled with a Newton-Raphson method for computing chemical equilibrium. During the development of the proposed physicochemical and numerical model, different electrokinetic systems have...

  18. Numerical Modelling Of Humid Air Flow Around A Porous Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohojło-Wiśniewska Aneta

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an example of humid air flow around a single head of Chinese cabbage under conditions of complex heat transfer. This kind of numerical simulation allows us to create a heat and humidity transfer model between the Chinese cabbage and the flowing humid air. The calculations utilize the heat transfer model in porous medium, which includes the temperature difference between the solid (vegetable tissue and fluid (air phases of the porous medium. Modelling and calculations were performed in ANSYS Fluent 14.5 software.

  19. Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer L.

    1989-01-01

    Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations.

  20. Advanced modelling and numerical strategies in nuclear thermal-hydraulics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staedtke, H.

    2001-01-01

    The first part of the lecture gives a brief review of the current status of nuclear thermal hydraulics as it forms the basis of established system codes like TRAC, RELAP5, CATHARE or ATHLET. Specific emphasis is given to the capabilities and limitations of the underlying physical modelling and numerical solution strategies with regard to the description of complex transient two-phase flow and heat transfer conditions as expected to occur in PWR reactors during off-normal and accident conditions. The second part of the lecture focuses on new challenges and future needs in nuclear thermal-hydraulics which might arise with regard to re-licensing of old plants using bestestimate methodologies or the design and safety analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors relying largely on passive safety systems. In order to meet these new requirements various advanced modelling and numerical techniques will be discussed including extended wellposed (hyperbolic) two-fluid models, explicit modelling of interfacial area transport or higher order numerical schemes allowing a high resolution of local multi-dimensional flow processes.(author)

  1. The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove

    2014-01-01

    Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation

  2. A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

  3. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent J Gnanapragasam

    2016-08-01

    new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001. Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1, a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75], and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49] (p < 0.0001. High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80] and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67] (p < 0.0001, respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77 versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71 (p < 0.0001. In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84 for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69 (p < 0.0001 for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short.A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate

  4. Untangling Slab Dynamics Using 3-D Numerical and Analytical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, A. F.; Royden, L.; Becker, T. W.

    2016-12-01

    Increasingly sophisticated numerical models have enabled us to make significant strides in identifying the key controls on how subducting slabs deform. For example, 3-D models have demonstrated that subducting plate width, and the related strength of toroidal flow around the plate edge, exerts a strong control on both the curvature and the rate of migration of the trench. However, the results of numerical subduction models can be difficult to interpret, and many first order dynamics issues remain at least partially unresolved. Such issues include the dominant controls on trench migration, the interdependence of asthenospheric pressure and slab dynamics, and how nearby slabs influence each other's dynamics. We augment 3-D, dynamically evolving finite element models with simple, analytical force-balance models to distill the physics associated with subduction into more manageable parts. We demonstrate that for single, isolated subducting slabs much of the complexity of our fully numerical models can be encapsulated by simple analytical expressions. Rates of subduction and slab dip correlate strongly with the asthenospheric pressure difference across the subducting slab. For double subduction, an additional slab gives rise to more complex mantle pressure and flow fields, and significantly extends the range of plate kinematics (e.g., convergence rate, trench migration rate) beyond those present in single slab models. Despite these additional complexities, we show that much of the dynamics of such multi-slab systems can be understood using the physics illuminated by our single slab study, and that a force-balance method can be used to relate intra-plate stress to viscous pressure in the asthenosphere and coupling forces at plate boundaries. This method has promise for rapid modeling of large systems of subduction zones on a global scale.

  5. Evaluating Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations From Prognostic Dust Minerals in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlwitz, J. P.; Knopf, D. A.; Fridlind, A. M.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; DeMott, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    The effect of aerosol particles on the radiative properties of clouds, the so-called, indirect effect of aerosols, is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. The distribution of water vapor, precipitation, and ice cloud formation are influenced by the atmospheric ice formation, thereby modulating cloud albedo and thus climate. It is well known that different particle types possess different ice formation propensities with mineral dust being a superior ice nucleating particle (INP) compared to soot particles. Furthermore, some dust mineral types are more proficient INP than others, depending on temperature and relative humidity.In recent work, we have presented an improved dust aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2 with prognostic mineral composition of the dust aerosols. Thus, there are regional variations in dust composition. We evaluated the predicted mineral fractions of dust aerosols by comparing them to measurements from a compilation of about 60 published literature references. Additionally, the capability of the model to reproduce the elemental composition of the simulated dusthas been tested at Izana Observatory at Tenerife, Canary Islands, which is located off-shore of Africa and where frequent dust events are observed. We have been able to show that the new approach delivers a robust improvement of the predicted mineral fractions and elemental composition of dust.In the current study, we use three-dimensional dust mineral fields and thermodynamic conditions, which are simulated using GISS ModelE, to calculate offline the INP concentrations derived using different ice nucleation parameterizations that are currently discussed. We evaluate the calculated INP concentrations from the different parameterizations by comparing them to INP concentrations from field measurements.

  6. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  7. Elements of Constitutive Modelling and Numerical Analysis of Frictional Soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Kim Parsberg

    of a constitutive model for soil is based on a profound knowledge of the soil behaviour upon loading. In the present study it is attempted to get a better understanding of the soil behaviour bv performing a number of triaxial compression tests on sand. The stress-strain behaviour of sand depends strongly......This thesis deals with elements of elasto-plastic constitutive modelling and numerical analysis of frictional soils. The thesis is based on a number of scientific papers and reports in which central characteristics of soil behaviour and applied numerical techniques are considered. The development...... and subsequently dilates during shear. The change in the volumetric behaviour of the soil skeleton is commonly referred to as the characteristic state. The stress ratio corresponding to the characteristic state is independent of the mean normal effective stress and the relative density, but depends on the stress...

  8. Mathematical and numerical modeling of early atherosclerotic lesions***

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoult Annie

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model describing the early formation of atherosclerotic lesions. The early stage of atherosclerosis is an inflammatory process that starts with the penetration of low density lipoproteins in the intima and with their oxidation. This phenomenon is closely linked to the local blood flow dynamics. Extending a previous work [5] that was mainly restricted to a one-dimensional setting, we couple a simple lesion growth model relying on the biomolecular process that takes place in the intima with blood flow dynamics and mass transfer. We perform numerical simulations on a two-dimensional geometry taken from [6,7] that mimicks a carotid artery deformed by a perivascular cast and we compare the numerical results with experimental data.

  9. On numerical considerations for modeling reactive astrophysical shocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papatheodore, Thomas L.; Messer, O. E. Bronson

    2014-01-01

    Simulating detonations in astrophysical environments is often complicated by numerical approximations to shock structure. A common prescription to ensure correct detonation speeds and associated quantities is to prohibit burning inside the numerically broadened shock. We have performed a series of simulations to verify the efficacy of this approximation and to understand how resolution and dimensionality might affect its use. Our results show that in one dimension, prohibiting burning in the shock is important wherever the carbon burning length is not resolved, in keeping with the results of Fryxell et al. In two dimensions, we find that the prohibition of shock burning effectively inhibits the development of cellular structure for all but the most highly resolved cases. We discuss the possible impacts this outcome may have on sub-grid models and detonation propagation in models of Type Ia supernovae, including potential impacts on observables.

  10. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  11. Numerical modeling of a nuclear production reactor cooling lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, L.L.; Pepper, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    A finite element model has been developed which predicts flow and temperature distributions within a nuclear reactor cooling lake at the Savannah River Plant near Aiken, South Carolina. Numerical results agree with values obtained from a 3-D EPA numerical lake model and actual measurements obtained from the lake. Because the effluent water from the reactor heat exchangers discharges directly into the lake, downstream temperatures at mid-lake could exceed the South Carolina DHEC guidelines for thermal exchanges during the summer months. Therefore, reactor power was reduced to maintain temperature compliance at mid-lake. Thermal mitigation measures were studied that included placing a 6.1 m deep fabric curtain across mid-lake and moving the reactor outfall upstream. These measurements were calculated to permit about an 8% improvement in reactor power during summer operation

  12. OPTIMIZATION OF HEATING OF GEAR WHEEL USING NUMERICAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soňa Benešová

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Successful heat treating and carburizing of gear wheels for wind turbine gear boxes requires that plastic deformation in the wheel is minimized. Numerical modeling using the DEFORM software was aimed at exploring the effects of the base, on which the gear wheel rests during heating, on the heating process. Homogeneous heating was assumed. It was found that the base heats up more quickly than the workpiece. It is the consequence of the base's shape and volume. As a result, the base expands and slides against the wheel, predominantly at the first heating stage. Later on, it prevents the gear wheel from expanding, causing plastic deformation in the wheel. The findings were used for designing new heating schedules to minimize these undesirable interactions and to reduce the plastic deformation to a negligible magnitude. In addition, this paper presents an example of a practical use of numerical modeling in the DEFORM software.

  13. OPTIMIZATION OF HEATING OF GEAR WHEEL USING NUMERICAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sona Benesova

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Successful heat treating and carburizing of gear wheels for wind turbine gear boxes requires that plastic deformation in the wheel is minimized. Numerical modeling using the DEFORM software was aimed at exploring the effects of the base, on which the gear wheel rests during heating, on the heating process. Homogeneous heating was assumed. It was found that the base heats up more quickly than the workpiece. It is the consequence of the base's shape and volume. As a result, the base expands and slides against the wheel, predominantly at the first heating stage. Later on, it prevents the gear wheel from expanding, causing plastic deformation in the wheel. The findings were used for designing new heating schedules to minimize these undesirable interactions and to reduce the plastic deformation to a negligible magnitude. In addition, this paper presents an example of a practical use of numerical modeling in the DEFORM software.

  14. New Trends in Model Coupling Theory, Numerics and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coquel, F.; Godlewski, E.; Herard, J. M.; Segre, J.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue comprises selected papers from the workshop New Trends in Model Coupling, Theory, Numerics and Applications (NTMC'09) which took place in Paris, September 2 - 4, 2009. The research of optimal technological solutions in a large amount of industrial systems requires to perform numerical simulations of complex phenomena which are often characterized by the coupling of models related to various space and/or time scales. Thus, the so-called multi-scale modelling has been a thriving scientific activity which connects applied mathematics and other disciplines such as physics, chemistry, biology or even social sciences. To illustrate the variety of fields concerned by the natural occurrence of model coupling we may quote: meteorology where it is required to take into account several turbulence scales or the interaction between oceans and atmosphere, but also regional models in a global description, solid mechanics where a thorough understanding of complex phenomena such as propagation of cracks needs to couple various models from the atomistic level to the macroscopic level; plasma physics for fusion energy for instance where dense plasmas and collisionless plasma coexist; multiphase fluid dynamics when several types of flow corresponding to several types of models are present simultaneously in complex circuits; social behaviour analysis with interaction between individual actions and collective behaviour. (authors)

  15. Condensation front modelling in a moisture separator reheater by application of SICLE numerical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grange, J.L.; Caremoli, C.; Eddi, M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents improvements performed on SICLE numerical model in order to analyse the condensation front that occurs in the moisture separator reheaters (MSR) of nuclear power plants. Modifications of SICLE numerical model architecture and a fine modelling of reheater have allowed to correctly simulate the MSR thermohydraulic behaviour during a severe transient (plant islanding) [fr

  16. Numerical modeling of underground openings behavior with a viscoplastic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleine, A.

    2007-01-01

    Nature is complex and must be approached in total modesty by engineers seeking to predict the behavior of underground openings. The engineering of industrial projects in underground situations, with high economic and social stakes (Alpine mountain crossings, nuclear waste repository), mean striving to gain better understanding of the behavioral mechanisms of the openings to be designed. This improvement necessarily involves better physical representativeness of macroscopic mechanisms and the provision of prediction tools suited to the expectations and needs of the engineers. The calculation tools developed in this work is in step with this concern for satisfying industrial needs and developing knowledge related to the rheology of geo-materials. These developments led to the proposing of a mechanical constitutive model, suited to lightly fissured rocks, comparable to continuous media, while integrating more particularly the effect of time. Thread of this study, the problematics ensued from the subject of the thesis is precisely about the rock mass delayed behavior in numerical modeling and its consequences on underground openings design. Based on physical concepts of reference, defined in several scales (macro/meso/micro), the developed constitutive model is translated in a mathematical formalism in order to be numerically implemented. Numerical applications presented as illustrations fall mainly within the framework of nuclear waste repository problems. They concern two very different configurations of underground openings: the AECL's underground canadian laboratory, excavated in the Lac du Bonnet granite, and the GMR gallery of Bure's laboratory (Meuse/Haute-Marne), dug in argillaceous rock. In this two cases, this constitutive model use highlights the gains to be obtained from allowing for delayed behavior regarding the accuracy of numerical tunnel behavior predictions in the short, medium and long terms. (author)

  17. NUMERICAL MODELING OF HARDENING OF UNINTERRUPTEDLY-CASTED BRONZE CASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. I. Marukovich

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional numerical model for calculation of thermal fields during solidification of continuously casted bronze casting is developed. Coefficients of heat transfer on borders of calculation areas on the basis of the solution of inverse heat transfer conduction problem are determined. The analysis of thermal fields, depending on loop variables of drawing and the sizes of not cooled zone of crystallizer is curried out.

  18. Numerical modelling of so-called secondary ultrasonic echoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langenberg, K.J.; Fellinger, P.; Hofmann, C.

    1994-01-01

    The formation of secondary ultrasonic echoes is discussed for a particularly simple testing situation. This discussion is based upon the intuitive visualization of elastic wave propagation as obtained with the numerical EFIT-Code (Elastodynamic Finite Integration Technique). The resulting travel times for the econdary echoes contain well-defined limits as they originate from the simple model of grazing incidence plane longitudinal wave mode conversion. (orig.) [de

  19. Numerical methods for modeling photonic-crystal VCSELs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dems, Maciej; Chung, Il-Sug; Nyakas, Peter

    2010-01-01

    We show comparison of four different numerical methods for simulating Photonic-Crystal (PC) VCSELs. We present the theoretical basis behind each method and analyze the differences by studying a benchmark VCSEL structure, where the PC structure penetrates all VCSEL layers, the entire top-mirror DBR...... to the effective index method. The simulation results elucidate the strength and weaknesses of the analyzed methods; and outline the limits of applicability of the different models....

  20. Numerical Modeling of a Wave Energy Point Absorber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez, Lorenzo Banos; Frigaard, Peter; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2009-01-01

    The present study deals with numerical modelling of the Wave Star Energy WSE device. Hereby, linear potential theory is applied via a BEM code on the wave hydrodynamics exciting the floaters. Time and frequency domain solutions of the floater response are determined for regular and irregular seas....... Furthermore, these results are used to estimate the power and the energy absorbed by a single oscillating floater. Finally, a latching control strategy is analysed in open-loop configuration for energy maximization....

  1. Modelling of multidimensional quantum systems by the numerical functional integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, Yu.Yu.; Zhidkov, E.P.

    1990-01-01

    The employment of the numerical functional integration for the description of multidimensional systems in quantum and statistical physics is considered. For the multiple functional integrals with respect to Gaussian measures in the full separable metric spaces the new approximation formulas exact on a class of polynomial functionals of a given summary degree are constructed. The use of the formulas is demonstrated on example of computation of the Green function and the ground state energy in multidimensional Calogero model. 15 refs.; 2 tabs

  2. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in viscoelastic media with relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnez, M. T.; Johnsen, E.

    2015-06-01

    Cavitation occurs in a variety of non-Newtonian fluids and viscoelastic materials. The large-amplitude volumetric oscillations of cavitation bubbles give rise to high temperatures and pressures at collapse, as well as induce large and rapid deformation of the surroundings. In this work, we develop a comprehensive numerical framework for spherical bubble dynamics in isotropic media obeying a wide range of viscoelastic constitutive relationships. Our numerical approach solves the compressible Keller-Miksis equation with full thermal effects (inside and outside the bubble) when coupled to a highly generalized constitutive relationship (which allows Newtonian, Kelvin-Voigt, Zener, linear Maxwell, upper-convected Maxwell, Jeffreys, Oldroyd-B, Giesekus, and Phan-Thien-Tanner models). For the latter two models, partial differential equations (PDEs) must be solved in the surrounding medium; for the remaining models, we show that the PDEs can be reduced to ordinary differential equations. To solve the general constitutive PDEs, we present a Chebyshev spectral collocation method, which is robust even for violent collapse. Combining this numerical approach with theoretical analysis, we simulate bubble dynamics in various viscoelastic media to determine the impact of relaxation time, a constitutive parameter, on the associated physics. Relaxation time is found to increase bubble growth and permit rebounds driven purely by residual stresses in the surroundings. Different regimes of oscillations occur depending on the relaxation time.

  3. Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roos, A M; Diekmann, O; Getto, P; Kirkilionis, M A

    2010-02-01

    In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries can be defined in the (two-parameter) plane. We numerically trace these implicitly defined curves using alternatingly tangent prediction and Newton correction. Evaluation of the maps defining the curves involves integration over individual size and individual survival probability (and their derivatives) as functions of individual age. Such ingredients are often defined as solutions of ODE, i.e., in general only implicitly. In our case, the right-hand sides of these ODE feature discontinuities that are caused by an abrupt change of behavior at the size where juveniles are assumed to turn adult. So, we combine the numerical solution of these ODE with curve tracing methods. We have implemented the algorithms for "Daphnia consuming algae" models in C-code. The results obtained by way of this implementation are shown in the form of graphs.

  4. Numerical solution of High-kappa model of superconductivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamikhova, R. [Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    We present formulation and finite element approximations of High-kappa model of superconductivity which is valid in the high {kappa}, high magnetic field setting and accounts for applied magnetic field and current. Major part of this work deals with steady-state and dynamic computational experiments which illustrate our theoretical results numerically. In our experiments we use Galerkin discretization in space along with Backward-Euler and Crank-Nicolson schemes in time. We show that for moderate values of {kappa}, steady states of the model system, computed using the High-kappa model, are virtually identical with results computed using the full Ginzburg-Landau (G-L) equations. We illustrate numerically optimal rates of convergence in space and time for the L{sup 2} and H{sup 1} norms of the error in the High-kappa solution. Finally, our numerical approximations demonstrate some well-known experimentally observed properties of high-temperature superconductors, such as appearance of vortices, effects of increasing the applied magnetic field and the sample size, and the effect of applied constant current.

  5. ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

    2009-01-15

    During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has

  6. Interaction of tide and salinity barrier: Limitation of numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai1

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the study of interaction of the tide and the salinity barrier in an estuarine area is usually accomplished vianumerical modeling, due to the speed and convenience of modern computers. However, numerical models provide littleinsight with respect to the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this study, it is found that all existing numericalmodels work satisfactorily when the barrier is located at some distance far from upstream and downstream boundary conditions.Results are considerably underestimate reality when the barrier is located near the downstream boundary, usually theriver mouth. Meanwhile, this analytical model provides satisfactory output for all scenarios. The main problem of thenumerical model is that the effects of barrier construction in creation of reflected tide are neglected when specifying thedownstream boundary conditions; the use of the boundary condition before construction of the barrier which are significantlydifferent from those after the barrier construction would result in an error outputs. Future numerical models shouldattempt to account for this deficiency; otherwise, using this analytical model is another choice.

  7. Simple prognostic model for patients with advanced cancer based on performance status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Raymond W; Caraiscos, Valerie B; Swami, Nadia; Banerjee, Subrata; Mak, Ernie; Kaya, Ebru; Rodin, Gary; Bryson, John; Ridley, Julia Z; Le, Lisa W; Zimmermann, Camilla

    2014-09-01

    Providing survival estimates is important for decision making in oncology care. The purpose of this study was to provide survival estimates for outpatients with advanced cancer, using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG), Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS) scales, and to compare their ability to predict survival. ECOG, PPS, and KPS were completed by physicians for each new patient attending the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre outpatient Oncology Palliative Care Clinic (OPCC) from April 2007 to February 2010. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test for trend was employed to test for differences in survival curves for each level of performance status (PS), and the concordance index (C-statistic) was used to test the predictive discriminatory ability of each PS measure. Measures were completed for 1,655 patients. PS delineated survival well for all three scales according to the log-rank test for trend (P statistic was similar for all three scales and ranged from 0.63 to 0.64. We present a simple tool that uses PS alone to prognosticate in advanced cancer, and has similar discriminatory ability to more complex models. Copyright © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  8. Numerical modeling of flow boiling instabilities using TRACE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kommer, Eric M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • TRACE was used to realistically model boiling instabilities in single and parallel channel configurations. • Model parameters were chosen to exactly mimic other author’s work in order to provide for direct comparison of results. • Flow stability maps generated by the model show unstable flow at operating points similar to other authors. • The method of adjudicating when a flow is “unstable” is critical in this type of numerical study. - Abstract: Dynamic flow instabilities in two-phase systems are a vitally important area of study due to their effects on a great number of industrial applications, including heat exchangers in nuclear power plants. Several next generation nuclear reactor designs incorporate once through steam generators which will exhibit boiling flow instabilities if not properly designed or when operated outside design limits. A number of numerical thermal hydraulic codes attempt to model instabilities for initial design and for use in accident analysis. TRACE, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s newest thermal hydraulic code is used in this study to investigate flow instabilities in both single and dual parallel channel configurations. The model parameters are selected as to replicate other investigators’ experimental and numerical work in order to provide easy comparison. Particular attention is paid to the similarities between analysis using TRACE Version 5.0 and RELAP5/MOD3.3. Comparison of results is accomplished via flow stability maps non-dimensionalized via the phase change and subcooling numbers. Results of this study show that TRACE does indeed model two phase flow instabilities, with the transient response closely mimicking that seen in experimental studies. When compared to flow stability maps generated using RELAP, TRACE shows similar results with differences likely due to the somewhat qualitative criteria used by various authors to determine when the flow is truly unstable

  9. Numerical modeling of hypolimnetic oxygenation by electrolysis of water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaćimović Nenad M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a novel method for hypolimnetic oxygenation by electrolysis of water. The performance of the method is investigated by the laboratory and the field experiment. The laboratory experiment is conducted in a 90 L vessel, while the field experiment is conducted at the lake Biwa in Japan. In order to provide a better insight into involved processes, a numerical model for simulation of bubble flow is developed with consideration of gas compressibility and oxygen dissolution. The model simultaneously solves 3-D volume averaged two-fluid governing equations. Developed model is firstly verified by simulation of bubble flow experiments, reported in the literature, where good qualitative agreement between measured and simulated results is observed. In the second part, the model is applied for simulation of conducted water electrolysis experiments. The model reproduced the observed oxygen concentration dynamics reasonably well. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 37009

  10. Numerical modeling of a cryogenic fluid within a fuel tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greer, Donald S.

    1994-01-01

    The computational method developed to study the cryogenic fluid characteristics inside a fuel tank in a hypersonic aircraft is presented. The model simulates a rapid draining of the tank by modeling the ullage vapor and the cryogenic liquid with a moving interface. A mathematical transformation was developed and applied to the Navier-Stokes equations to account for the moving interface. The formulation of the numerical method is a transient hybrid explicit-implicit technique where the pressure term in the momentum equations is approximated to first order in time by combining the continuity equation with an ideal equation of state.

  11. Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    P. Dobson

    2003-01-01

    This Scientific Analysis report describes the methods used to develop numerical grids of the unsaturated hydrogeologic system beneath Yucca Mountain. Numerical grid generation is an integral part of the development of the Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), a complex, three-dimensional (3-D) model of Yucca Mountain. This revision incorporates changes made to both the geologic framework model and the proposed repository layout. The resulting numerical grids, developed using current geologic, hydrogeologic, and mineralogic data, provide the necessary framework to: (1) develop calibrated hydrogeologic property sets and flow fields, (2) test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport, and (3) predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions. The technical scope, content, and management of this Scientific Analysis report was initially controlled by the planning document, ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for: Unsaturated Zone Sections of License Application Chapters 8 and 12'' (BSC 2002 [159051], Section 1.6.4). This TWP was later superseded by ''Technical Work Plan for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone'' (BSC 2002 [160819]), which contains the Data Qualification Plan used to qualify the DTN: MO0212GWLSSPAX.000 [161271] (See Attachment IV). Grids generated and documented in this report supersede those documented in previous versions of this report (BSC 2001 [159356]). The constraints, assumptions, and limitations associated with this report are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow. There were no deviations from the TWP scope of work in this report. Two software packages not listed in Table IV-2 of the TWP (BSC 2002 [159051]), ARCINFO V7.2.1 (CRWMS M and O 2000 [157019]; USGS 2000 [148304]) and 2kgrid8.for V1.0 (LBNL 2002 [154787]), were utilized in the development of the numerical grids; the use of additional software is accounted for in the TWP (BSC 2002 [159051], Section 13). The use of

  12. Numerical model of the influence function of deformable mirrors based on Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Shun; Zhang Sijiong

    2014-01-01

    A numerical model is presented to simulate the influence function of deformable mirror actuators. The numerical model is formed by Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions, which are constituted of Bessel orthogonal functions and a Fourier basis. A detailed comparison is presented between the new Bessel Fourier model, the Zernike model, the Gaussian influence function and the modified Gaussian influence function. Numerical experiments indicate that the new numerical model is easy to use and more accurate compared with other numerical models. The new numerical model can be used for describing deformable mirror performances and numerical simulations of adaptive optics systems. (research papers)

  13. An internally validated prognostic model for success in revision stapes surgery for otosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegner, Inge; Vincent, Robert; Derks, Laura S M; Rauh, Simone P; Heymans, Martijn W; Stegeman, Inge; Grolman, Wilko

    2018-03-09

    To develop a prediction model that can accurately predict the chance of success following revision stapes surgery in patients with recurrent or persistent otosclerosis at 2- to 6-months follow-up and to validate this model internally. A retrospective cohort study of prospectively gathered data in a tertiary referral center. The associations of 11 prognostic factors with treatment success were tested in 705 cases using multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward selection. Success was defined as a mean air-bone gap closure to 10 dB or less. The most relevant predictors were used to derive a clinical prediction rule to determine the probability of success. Internal validation by means of bootstrapping was performed. Model performance indices, including the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and the explained variance were calculated. Success was achieved in 57.7% of cases at 2- to 6-months follow-up. Certain previous surgical techniques, primary causes of failure leading up to revision stapes surgery, and positions of the prosthesis placed during revision surgery were associated with higher success percentages. The clinical prediction rule performed moderately well in the original dataset (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .78; AUC = 0.73; explained variance = 22%), which slightly decreased following internal validation by means of bootstrapping (AUC = 0.69; explained variance = 13%). Our study established the importance of previous surgical technique, primary cause of failure, and type of the prosthesis placed during the revision surgery in predicting the probability of success following stapes surgery at 2- to 6-months follow-up. 2b. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  14. Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

  15. Benchmark problems for numerical implementations of phase field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jokisaari, A. M.; Voorhees, P. W.; Guyer, J. E.; Warren, J.; Heinonen, O. G.

    2016-01-01

    Here, we present the first set of benchmark problems for phase field models that are being developed by the Center for Hierarchical Materials Design (CHiMaD) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). While many scientific research areas use a limited set of well-established software, the growing phase field community continues to develop a wide variety of codes and lacks benchmark problems to consistently evaluate the numerical performance of new implementations. Phase field modeling has become significantly more popular as computational power has increased and is now becoming mainstream, driving the need for benchmark problems to validate and verify new implementations. We follow the example set by the micromagnetics community to develop an evolving set of benchmark problems that test the usability, computational resources, numerical capabilities and physical scope of phase field simulation codes. In this paper, we propose two benchmark problems that cover the physics of solute diffusion and growth and coarsening of a second phase via a simple spinodal decomposition model and a more complex Ostwald ripening model. We demonstrate the utility of benchmark problems by comparing the results of simulations performed with two different adaptive time stepping techniques, and we discuss the needs of future benchmark problems. The development of benchmark problems will enable the results of quantitative phase field models to be confidently incorporated into integrated computational materials science and engineering (ICME), an important goal of the Materials Genome Initiative.

  16. A simplified model for TIG-dressing numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, P.; Berto, F.; James, M. N.

    2017-04-01

    Irrespective of the mechanical properties of the alloy to be welded, the fatigue strength of welded joints is primarily controlled by the stress concentration associated with the weld toe or weld root. In order to reduce the effects of such notch defects in welds, which are influenced by tensile properties of the alloy, post-weld improvement techniques have been developed. The two most commonly used techniques are weld toe grinding and TIG dressing, which are intended to both remove toe defects such as non-metallic intrusions and to re-profile the weld toe region to give a lower stress concentration. In the case of TIG dressing the weld toe is re-melted to provide a smoother transition between the plate and the weld crown and to beneficially modify the residual stress redistribution. Assessing the changes to weld stress state arising from TIG-dressing is most easily accomplished through a complex numerical simulation that requires coupled thermo-fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. However, this can be expensive in terms of computational cost and time needed to reach a solution. The present paper therefore proposes a simplified numerical model that overcomes such drawbacks and which simulates the remelted toe region by means of the activation and deactivation of elements in the numerical model.

  17. Numerical Cerebrospinal System Modeling in Fluid-Structure Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnotel, Simon; Salmon, Stéphanie; Balédent, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) stroke volume in the aqueduct is widely used to evaluate CSF dynamics disorders. In a healthy population, aqueduct stroke volume represents around 10% of the spinal stroke volume while intracranial subarachnoid space stroke volume represents 90%. The amplitude of the CSF oscillations through the different compartments of the cerebrospinal system is a function of the geometry and the compliances of each compartment, but we suspect that it could also be impacted be the cardiac cycle frequency. To study this CSF distribution, we have developed a numerical model of the cerebrospinal system taking into account cerebral ventricles, intracranial subarachnoid spaces, spinal canal and brain tissue in fluid-structure interactions. A numerical fluid-structure interaction model is implemented using a finite-element method library to model the cerebrospinal system and its interaction with the brain based on fluid mechanics equations and linear elasticity equations coupled in a monolithic formulation. The model geometry, simplified in a first approach, is designed in accordance with realistic volume ratios of the different compartments: a thin tube is used to mimic the high flow resistance of the aqueduct. CSF velocity and pressure and brain displacements are obtained as simulation results, and CSF flow and stroke volume are calculated from these results. Simulation results show a significant variability of aqueduct stroke volume and intracranial subarachnoid space stroke volume in the physiological range of cardiac frequencies. Fluid-structure interactions are numerous in the cerebrospinal system and difficult to understand in the rigid skull. The presented model highlights significant variations of stroke volumes under cardiac frequency variations only.

  18. Chrystal and Proudman resonances simulated with three numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubalo, Maja; Janeković, Ivica; Orlić, Mirko

    2018-05-01

    The aim of this work was to study Chrystal and Proudman resonances in a simple closed basin and to explore and compare how well the two resonant mechanisms are reproduced with different, nowadays widely used, numerical ocean models. The test case was based on air pressure disturbances of two commonly used shapes (a sinusoidal and a boxcar), having various wave lengths, and propagating at different speeds. Our test domain was a closed rectangular basin, 300 km long with a uniform depth of 50 m, with the theoretical analytical solution available for benchmark. In total, 2250 simulations were performed for each of the three different numerical models: ADCIRC, SCHISM and ROMS. During each of the simulations, we recorded water level anomalies and computed the integral of the energy density spectrum for a number of points distributed along the basin. We have successfully documented the transition from Proudman to Chrystal resonance that occurs for a sinusoidal air pressure disturbance having a wavelength between one and two basin lengths. An inter-model comparison of the results shows that different models represent the two resonant phenomena in a slightly different way. For Chrystal resonance, all the models showed similar behavior; however, ADCIRC model providing slightly higher values of the mean resonant period than the other two models. In the case of Proudman resonance, the most consistent results, closest to the analytical solution, were obtained using ROMS model, which reproduced the mean resonant speed equal to 22.00 m/s— i.e., close to the theoretical value of 22.15 m/s. ADCIRC and SCHISM models showed small deviations from that value, with the mean speed being slightly lower—21.97 m/s (ADCIRC) and 21.93 m/s (SCHISM). The findings may seem small but could play an important role when resonance is a crucial process producing enhancing effects by two orders of magnitude (i.e., meteotsunamis).

  19. Numerical modelling of multimode fibre-optic communication lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidelnikov, O S; Fedoruk, M P [Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Sygletos, S; Ferreira, F [Aston University, England, Birmingham, B4 7ET (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-31

    The results of numerical modelling of nonlinear propagation of an optical signal in multimode fibres with a small differential group delay are presented. It is found that the dependence of the error vector magnitude (EVM) on the differential group delay can be reduced by increasing the number of ADC samples per symbol in the numerical implementation of the differential group delay compensation algorithm in the receiver. The possibility of using multimode fibres with a small differential group delay for data transmission in modern digital communication systems is demonstrated. It is shown that with increasing number of modes the strong coupling regime provides a lower EVM level than the weak coupling one. (fibre-optic communication lines)

  20. Induction and direct resistance heating theory and numerical modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lupi, Sergio; Aliferov, Aleksandr

    2015-01-01

    This book offers broad, detailed coverage of theoretical developments in induction and direct resistance heating and presents new material on the solution of problems in the application of such heating. The physical basis of induction and conduction heating processes is explained, and electromagnetic phenomena in direct resistance and induction heating of flat workpieces and cylindrical bodies are examined in depth. The calculation of electrical and energetic characteristics of induction and conduction heating systems is then thoroughly reviewed. The final two chapters consider analytical solutions and numerical modeling of problems in the application of induction and direct resistance heating, providing industrial engineers with the knowledge needed in order to use numerical tools in the modern design of installations. Other engineers, scientists, and technologists will find the book to be an invaluable reference that will assist in the efficient utilization of electrical energy.

  1. Numerical methods for the Lévy LIBOR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papapantoleon, Antonis; Skovmand, David

    2010-01-01

    but the methods are generally slow. We propose an alternative approximation scheme based on Picard iterations. Our approach is similar in accuracy to the full numerical solution, but with the feature that each rate is, unlike the standard method, evolved independently of the other rates in the term structure....... This enables simultaneous calculation of derivative prices of different maturities using parallel computing. We include numerical illustrations of the accuracy and speed of our method pricing caplets.......The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the L\\'evy LIBOR model of Eberlein and \\"Ozkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates...

  2. Numerical Methods for the Lévy LIBOR Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papapantoleon, Antonis; Skovmand, David

    are generally slow. We propose an alternative approximation scheme based on Picard iterations. Our approach is similar in accuracy to the full numerical solution, but with the feature that each rate is, unlike the standard method, evolved independently of the other rates in the term structure. This enables...... simultaneous calculation of derivative prices of different maturities using parallel computing. We include numerical illustrations of the accuracy and speed of our method pricing caplets.......The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the Lévy LIBOR model of Eberlein and Özkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods...

  3. Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Dao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

  4. Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of oil pollution problems

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Written by outstanding experts in the fields of marine engineering, atmospheric physics and chemistry, fluid dynamics and applied mathematics, the contributions in this book cover a wide range of subjects, from pure mathematics to real-world applications in the oil spill engineering business. Offering a truly interdisciplinary approach, the authors present both mathematical models and state-of-the-art numerical methods for adequately solving the partial differential equations involved, as well as highly practical experiments involving actual cases of ocean oil pollution. It is indispensable that different disciplines of mathematics, like analysis and numerics,  together with physics, biology, fluid dynamics, environmental engineering and marine science, join forces to solve today’s oil pollution problems.   The book will be of great interest to researchers and graduate students in the environmental sciences, mathematics and physics, showing the broad range of techniques needed in order to solve these poll...

  5. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Advanced Physical Oceanographic Numerical Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    1986-01-01

    This book is a direct result of the NATO Advanced Study Institute held in Banyuls-sur-mer, France, June 1985. The Institute had the same title as this book. It was held at Laboratoire Arago. Eighty lecturers and students from almost all NATO countries attended. The purpose was to review the state of the art of physical oceanographic numerical modelling including the parameterization of physical processes. This book represents a cross-section of the lectures presented at the ASI. It covers elementary mathematical aspects through large scale practical aspects of ocean circulation calculations. It does not encompass every facet of the science of oceanographic modelling. We have, however, captured most of the essence of mesoscale and large-scale ocean modelling for blue water and shallow seas. There have been considerable advances in modelling coastal circulation which are not included. The methods section does not include important material on phase and group velocity errors, selection of grid structures, advanc...

  6. A numerical model for buoyant oil jets and smoke plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, L.; Yapa, P. D.

    1997-01-01

    Development of a 3-D numerical model to simulate the behaviour of buoyant oil jets from underwater accidents and smoke plumes from oil burning was described. These jets/plumes can be oil-in-water, oil/gas mixture in water, gas in water, or gas in air. The ambient can have a 3-D flow structure, and spatially/temporally varying flow conditions. The model is based on the Lagrangian integral technique. The model formulation of oil jet includes the diffusion and dissolution of oil from the jet to the ambient environment. It is suitable to simulate well blowout accidents that can occur in deep waters, including that of the North Sea. The model has been thoroughly tested against a variety of data, including data from both laboratory and field experiments. In all cases the simulation data compared very well with experimental data. 26 refs., 10 figs

  7. Automated smoother for the numerical decoupling of dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Marco; Borges, Carlos C H; Vinga, Susana; Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza R; Santos, Helena; Voit, Eberhard O; Almeida, Jonas S

    2007-08-21

    Structure identification of dynamic models for complex biological systems is the cornerstone of their reverse engineering. Biochemical Systems Theory (BST) offers a particularly convenient solution because its parameters are kinetic-order coefficients which directly identify the topology of the underlying network of processes. We have previously proposed a numerical decoupling procedure that allows the identification of multivariate dynamic models of complex biological processes. While described here within the context of BST, this procedure has a general applicability to signal extraction. Our original implementation relied on artificial neural networks (ANN), which caused slight, undesirable bias during the smoothing of the time courses. As an alternative, we propose here an adaptation of the Whittaker's smoother and demonstrate its role within a robust, fully automated structure identification procedure. In this report we propose a robust, fully automated solution for signal extraction from time series, which is the prerequisite for the efficient reverse engineering of biological systems models. The Whittaker's smoother is reformulated within the context of information theory and extended by the development of adaptive signal segmentation to account for heterogeneous noise structures. The resulting procedure can be used on arbitrary time series with a nonstationary noise process; it is illustrated here with metabolic profiles obtained from in-vivo NMR experiments. The smoothed solution that is free of parametric bias permits differentiation, which is crucial for the numerical decoupling of systems of differential equations. The method is applicable in signal extraction from time series with nonstationary noise structure and can be applied in the numerical decoupling of system of differential equations into algebraic equations, and thus constitutes a rather general tool for the reverse engineering of mechanistic model descriptions from multivariate experimental

  8. Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic in southwestern Johor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Wan Hasliza Wan; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hamid, Mohd. Radzi Abdul

    2014-09-01

    Tanjung Piai located at the southwest of Johor, Malaysia faces severe erosion since a few decades ago. Considering the condition in this particular area, understanding of its hydrodynamic behaviour should be clearly explained. Thus, a numerical modelling has been applied in this study in order to investigate the hydrodynamic of current flow along the study area. Hydrodynamic study was carried out by applying a numerical modelling of MIKE 21 software based on flexible mesh grids. The model generally described the current flow pattern in the study area corresponding to the several flows from surrounding water regime which are Malacca Strait, Singapore Strait and Java Sea. The interaction of various water flows in the area of Tanjung Piai which is located in the middle part of the meeting of the currents to have a very complicated hydrodynamic conditions. The study area generally experienced two tidal phase in a day as the water flows is greatly influenced by the adjacent water flow from Malacca and Singapore Straits. During first tidal cycle, the most dominant flow is influenced by a single water flow which is Malacca Strait for both ebbing and flooding event. The current velocity was generally higher during this first tidal phase particularly at the tips of Tanjung Piai where severe erosion is spotted. However, the second tidal phase gives different stress to the study area as the flow is relatively dominated by both Malacca and Singapore Straits. During this phase, the meeting of current from both straits can be discovered near to the Tanjung Piai as this occurrence makes relatively slower current velocity around the study area. Basically, the numerical modelling result in this study can be considered as basic information in describing the condition of study area as it would be very useful for extensive study especially the study of sediment transport and morphological processes in the coastal area.

  9. Multiphysics Numerical Modeling of a Fin and Tube Heat Exchanger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Shobhana; Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph

    2015-01-01

    In the present research work, a modeling effort to predict the performance of a liquid-gas type fin and tube heat exchanger design is made. Three dimensional (3D) steady state numerical model is developed using commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics based on finite element method (FEM......). For the purposes here, only gas flowing over the fin side is simulated assuming constant inner tube wall temperature. The study couples conjugate heat transfer mechanism with turbulent flow in order to describe the temperature and velocity profile. In addition, performance characteristics of the heat exchanger...... design in terms of heat transfer and pressure loss are determined by parameters such as overall heat transfer coefficient, Colburn j-factor, flow resistance factor, and efficiency index. The model provides useful insights necessary for optimization of heat exchanger design....

  10. Numerical cell model investigating cellular carbon fluxes in Emiliania huxleyi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtz, Lena-Maria; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Thoms, Silke

    2015-01-07

    Coccolithophores play a crucial role in the marine carbon cycle and thus it is interesting to know how they will respond to climate change. After several decades of research the interplay between intracellular processes and the marine carbonate system is still not well understood. On the basis of experimental findings given in literature, a numerical cell model is developed that describes inorganic carbon fluxes between seawater and the intracellular sites of calcite precipitation and photosynthetic carbon fixation. The implemented cell model consists of four compartments, for each of which the carbonate system is resolved individually. The four compartments are connected to each other via H(+), CO2, and HCO3(-) fluxes across the compartment-confining membranes. For CO2 accumulation around RubisCO, an energy-efficient carbon concentrating mechanism is proposed that relies on diffusive CO2 uptake. At low external CO2 concentrations and high light intensities, CO2 diffusion does not suffice to cover the carbon demand of photosynthesis and an additional uptake of external HCO3(-) becomes essential. The model is constrained by data of Emiliania huxleyi, the numerically most abundant coccolithophore species in the present-day ocean. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling and numerical simulation of liquid-vapor phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caro, F.

    2004-11-01

    This work deals with the modelling and numerical simulation of liquid-vapor phase transition phenomena. The study is divided into two part: first we investigate phase transition phenomena with a Van Der Waals equation of state (non monotonic equation of state), then we adopt an alternative approach with two equations of state. In the first part, we study the classical viscous criteria for selecting weak solutions of the system used when the equation of state is non monotonic. Those criteria do not select physical solutions and therefore we focus a more recent criterion: the visco-capillary criterion. We use this criterion to exactly solve the Riemann problem (which imposes solving an algebraic scalar non linear equation). Unfortunately, this step is quite costly in term of CPU which prevent from using this method as a ground for building Godunov solvers. That is why we propose an alternative approach two equations of state. Using the least action principle, we propose a phase changing two-phase flow model which is based on the second thermodynamic principle. We shall then describe two equilibrium submodels issued from the relaxations processes when instantaneous equilibrium is assumed. Despite the weak hyperbolicity of the last sub-model, we propose stable numerical schemes based on a two-step strategy involving a convective step followed by a relaxation step. We show the ability of the system to simulate vapor bubbles nucleation. (author)

  12. Numerical solution of a model for a superconductor field problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsop, L.E.; Goodman, A.S.; Gustavson, F.G.; Miranker, W.L.

    1979-01-01

    A model of a magnetic field problem occurring in connection with Josephson junction devices is derived, and numerical solutions are obtained. The model is of mathematical interest, because the magnetic vector potential satisfies inhomogeneous Helmholtz equations in part of the region, i.e., the superconductors, and the Laplace equation elsewhere. Moreover, the inhomogeneities are the guage constants for the potential, which are different for each superconductor, and their magnitudes are proportional to the currents flowing in the superconductors. These constants are directly related to the self and mutual inductances of the superconducting elements in the device. The numerical solution is obtained by the iterative use of a fast Poisson solver. Chebyshev acceleration is used to reduce the number of iterations required to obtain a solution. A typical problem involves solving 100,000 simultaneous equations, which the algorithm used with this model does in 20 iterations, requiring three minutes of CPU time on an IBM VM/370/168. Excellent agreement is obtained between calculated and observed values for the inductances

  13. Black-hole kicks from numerical-relativity surrogate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerosa, Davide; Hébert, François; Stein, Leo C.

    2018-05-01

    Binary black holes radiate linear momentum in gravitational waves as they merge. Recoils imparted to the black-hole remnant can reach thousands of km /s , thus ejecting black holes from their host galaxies. We exploit recent advances in gravitational waveform modeling to quickly and reliably extract recoils imparted to generic, precessing, black-hole binaries. Our procedure uses a numerical-relativity surrogate model to obtain the gravitational waveform given a set of binary parameters; then, from this waveform we directly integrate the gravitational-wave linear momentum flux. This entirely bypasses the need for fitting formulas which are typically used to model black-hole recoils in astrophysical contexts. We provide a thorough exploration of the black-hole kick phenomenology in the parameter space, summarizing and extending previous numerical results on the topic. Our extraction procedure is made publicly available as a module for the Python programming language named surrkick. Kick evaluations take ˜0.1 s on a standard off-the-shelf machine, thus making our code ideal to be ported to large-scale astrophysical studies.

  14. Determination of Volumetric Losses in Hydrodynamic Pump Using Numerical Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukáš ZAVADIL

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the numerical modelling of the flow in the single-stage centrifugal pump. The main objective is to determine leakage losses through annular seals at the suction side of the pump. Leakage through a shaft seal is not included in the simulation. The amount of liquid that circulates from the impeller discharge back to suction of the pump is determined in dependence on the flow rate. Losses in the pump are further discussed as well as the possibility of their prediction.

  15. Experimental and numerical modeling of sulfur plugging in carbonate reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abou-Kassem, J.H. [Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, UAE University, PO Box 17555, Al-Ain (United Arab Emirates)

    2000-05-01

    Sour gas, mainly in the form of hydrogen sulfide, is produced in large amounts from many oil and gas reservoirs in the United Arab Emirates. In addition to creating problems in production lines, the precipitation of elemental sulfur in vicinity of the wellbore is often reported to cause wellbore damage. While there have been several studies performed on the role of solid deposition in gas reservoirs, the role of sulfur deposition in oil reservoirs has not been investigated. This paper presents experimental results along with a comprehensive wellbore model that predicts sulfur precipitation as well as plugging. Two separate sets of experiments, one for a gas phase system and another for a crude oil system, were conducted to investigate the deposition of elemental sulfur in (linear) carbonate cores. The gas flow tests were conducted with elemental sulfur being carried with nitrogen through limestone cores. Changes in gas flow rate were monitored while the injection pressure was held constant. A series of experiments generated valuable data for plugging with elemental sulfur. X-ray diffraction tests provided evidence of sulfur deposition along the cores. The oil flow tests were carried out to observe sulfur precipitation and plugging in a carbonate core. The crude oil was de-asphalted before conducting these tests in order to isolate the effect of asphaltene plugging. Significant plugging was observed and was found to be dependent on flow rate and initial sulfur concentration. This information was used in a phenomenological model that was incorporated in the wellbore numerical model. The data for the numerical model were obtained from both test tube and oil flow experiments. By using a phenomenological model, the wellbore plugging was modeled with an excellent match (with experimental results)

  16. Modeling and numerical study of two phase flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Champmartin, A.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis describes the modelization and the simulation of two-phase systems composed of droplets moving in a gas. The two phases interact with each other and the type of model to consider directly depends on the type of simulations targeted. In the first part, the two phases are considered as fluid and are described using a mixture model with a drift relation (to be able to follow the relative velocity between the two phases and take into account two velocities), the two-phase flows are assumed at the equilibrium in temperature and pressure. This part of the manuscript consists of the derivation of the equations, writing a numerical scheme associated with this set of equations, a study of this scheme and simulations. A mathematical study of this model (hyperbolicity in a simplified framework, linear stability analysis of the system around a steady state) was conducted in a frame where the gas is assumed baro-tropic. The second part is devoted to the modelization of the effect of inelastic collisions on the particles when the time of the simulation is shorter and the droplets can no longer be seen as a fluid. We introduce a model of inelastic collisions for droplets in a spray, leading to a specific Boltzmann kernel. Then, we build caricatures of this kernel of BGK type, in which the behavior of the first moments of the solution of the Boltzmann equation (that is mass, momentum, directional temperatures, variance of the internal energy) are mimicked. The quality of these caricatures is tested numerically at the end. (author) [fr

  17. Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) User Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teubert, Christopher Allen; Daigle, Matthew John; Watkins, Jason; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

    2016-01-01

    The Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) is a framework for applying prognostics. It makes applying prognostics easier by implementing many of the common elements across prognostic applications. The standard interface enables reuse of prognostic algorithms and models across systems using the GSAP framework.

  18. Numerical simulation and experimental validation of aircraft ground deicing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Chen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Aircraft ground deicing plays an important role of guaranteeing the aircraft safety. In practice, most airports generally use as many deicing fluids as possible to remove the ice, which causes the waste of the deicing fluids and the pollution of the environment. Therefore, the model of aircraft ground deicing should be built to establish the foundation for the subsequent research, such as the optimization of the deicing fluid consumption. In this article, the heat balance of the deicing process is depicted, and the dynamic model of the deicing process is provided based on the analysis of the deicing mechanism. In the dynamic model, the surface temperature of the deicing fluids and the ice thickness are regarded as the state parameters, while the fluid flow rate, the initial temperature, and the injection time of the deicing fluids are treated as control parameters. Ignoring the heat exchange between the deicing fluids and the environment, the simplified model is obtained. The rationality of the simplified model is verified by the numerical simulation and the impacts of the flow rate, the initial temperature and the injection time on the deicing process are investigated. To verify the model, the semi-physical experiment system is established, consisting of the low-constant temperature test chamber, the ice simulation system, the deicing fluid heating and spraying system, the simulated wing, the test sensors, and the computer measure and control system. The actual test data verify the validity of the dynamic model and the accuracy of the simulation analysis.

  19. Numerical modeling of hybrid fiber-reinforced concrete (hyfrc)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hameed, R.; Turatsinze, A.

    2015-01-01

    A model for numerical simulation of mechanical response of concrete reinforced with slipping and non slipping metallic fibers in hybrid form is presented in this paper. Constitutive law used to model plain concrete behaviour is based on plasticity and damage theories, and is capable to determine localized crack opening in three dimensional (3-D) systems. Behaviour law used for slipping metallic fibers is formulated based on effective stress carried by these fibers after when concrete matrix is cracked. A continuous approach is proposed to model the effect of addition of non-slipping metallic fibers in plain concrete. This approach considers the constitutive law of concrete matrix with increased fracture energy in tension obtained experimentally in direct tension tests on Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC). To simulate the mechanical behaviour of hybrid fiber-reinforced concrete (HyFRC), proposed approaches to model non-slipping metallic fibers and constitutive law of plain concrete and slipping fibers are used simultaneously without any additive equation. All the parameters used by the proposed model have physical meanings and are determined through experiments or drawn from literature. The model was implemented in Finite Element (FE) Code CASTEM and tested on FRC prismatic notched specimens in flexure. Model prediction showed good agreement with experimental results. (author)

  20. Development of orthogonal 2-dimensional numerical code TFC2D for fluid flow with various turbulence models and numerical schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ju Yeop; In, Wang Kee; Chun, Tae Hyun; Oh, Dong Seok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    The development of orthogonal 2-dimensional numerical code is made. The present code contains 9 kinds of turbulence models that are widely used. They include a standard k-{epsilon} model and 8 kinds of low Reynolds number ones. They also include 6 kinds of numerical schemes including 5 kinds of low order schemes and 1 kind of high order scheme such as QUICK. To verify the present numerical code, pipe flow, channel flow and expansion pipe flow are solved by this code with various options of turbulence models and numerical schemes and the calculated outputs are compared to experimental data. Furthermore, the discretization error that originates from the use of standard k-{epsilon} turbulence model with wall function is much more diminished by introducing a new grid system than a conventional one in the present code. 23 refs., 58 figs., 6 tabs. (Author)

  1. Numerical modeling of coanda effect in a novel propulsive system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Das

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Coanda effect (adhesion of jet flow over curved surface is fundamental characteristics of jet flow. In the present paper, we carried out numerical simulations to investigate Coanda flow over a curved surface and its application in a newly proposed Propulsive system "A.C.H.E.O.N" (Aerial Coanda High Efficiency Orienting jet Nozzle which supports thrust vectoring. The ACHEON system is presently being proposed for propelling a new V/STOL airplane in European Union. This system is based on cumulative effects of three physical effects such as (1 High speed jet mixing speeds (2 Coanda effect control by electrostatic fields (3 Coanda effect adhesion of an high speed jet to a convex surface. The performance of this nozzle can be enhanced by increasing the jet deflection angle of synthetic jet over the Coanda surface. This newly proposed nozzle has wide range of applications. It can be used in industrial sector such as plasma spray gun and for direct injection in combustion chamber to enhance the efficiency of the combustion chamber. Also, we studied the effect of Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators on A.C.H.E.O.N system. Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators are active control devices for controlling boundary layer and to delay the flow separation over any convex surfaces. Computations were performed under subsonic condition. Two dimensional CFD calculations were carried out using Reynolds averaged Navier stokes equations (RANS. A numerical method based on finite volume formulation (FVM was used. SST k-ω model was considered to model turbulent flow inside nozzle. DBD model was used to model the plasma. Moreover, a body force treatment was devised to model the effect of plasma and its coupling with the fluid. This preliminary result shows that, the presence of plasma near Coanda surface accelerates the flow and delays the separation and enhances the efficiency of the nozzle.

  2. Explosion localization and characterization via infrasound using numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fee, D.; Kim, K.; Iezzi, A. M.; Matoza, R. S.; Jolly, A. D.; De Angelis, S.; Diaz Moreno, A.; Szuberla, C.

    2017-12-01

    Numerous methods have been applied to locate, detect, and characterize volcanic and anthropogenic explosions using infrasound. Far-field localization techniques typically use back-azimuths from multiple arrays (triangulation) or Reverse Time Migration (RTM, or back-projection). At closer ranges, networks surrounding a source may use Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA), semblance, station-pair double difference, etc. However, at volcanoes and regions with topography or obstructions that block the direct path of sound, recent studies have shown that numerical modeling is necessary to provide an accurate source location. A heterogeneous and moving atmosphere (winds) may also affect the location. The time reversal mirror (TRM) application of Kim et al. (2015) back-propagates the wavefield using a Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) algorithm, with the source corresponding to the location of peak convergence. Although it provides high-resolution source localization and can account for complex wave propagation, TRM is computationally expensive and limited to individual events. Here we present a new technique, termed RTM-FDTD, which integrates TRM and FDTD. Travel time and transmission loss information is computed from each station to the entire potential source grid from 3-D Green's functions derived via FDTD. The wave energy is then back-projected and stacked at each grid point, with the maximum corresponding to the likely source. We apply our method to detect and characterize thousands of explosions from Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu and Etna Volcano, Italy, which both provide complex wave propagation and multiple source locations. We compare our results with those from more traditional methods (e.g. semblance), and suggest our method is preferred as it is computationally less expensive than TRM but still integrates numerical modeling. RTM-FDTD could be applied to volcanic other anthropogenic sources at a wide variety of ranges and scenarios. Kim, K., Lees, J.M., 2015. Imaging

  3. Numerical modeling for an electric-field hyperthermia applicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Te-Kao; Chou, C. K.; Chan, K. W.; Mcdougall, J.

    1993-01-01

    Hyperthermia, in conjunction with radiation and chemotherapy for treatment of cancers, is an area of current concern. Experiments have shown that hyperthermia can increase the potency of many chemotherapy drugs and the effectiveness of radiation for treating cancer. A combination of whole body or regional hyperthermia with chemotherapy or radiation should improve treatment results. Conventional methods for inducing whole body hyperthermia, such as exposing a patient in a radiant cabinet or under a hot water blanket, conduct heat very slowly from the skin to the body core. Thus a more efficient system, such as the three-plate electric-field hyperthermia applicator (EHA), is developed. This three-plate EHA has one top plate over and two lower plates beneath the patient. It is driven at 27.12 MHz with 500 Watts through a matching circuit. Using this applicator, a 50 kg pig was successfully heated to 42 C within 45 minutes. However, phantom and animal studies have indicated non-uniform heating near the side of the body. In addition, changes in the size and distance between the electrode plates can affect the heating (or electromagnetic field) pattern. Therefore, numerical models using the method of moments (MOM) or the finite difference time domain (FDTD) technique are developed to optimize the heating pattern of this EHA before it is used for human trials. The accuracy of the numerical modeling has been achieved by the good agreement between the MOM and FDTD results for the three-plate EHA without a biological body. The versatile FDTD technique is then applied to optimize the EHA design with a human body. Both the numerical and measured data in phantom blocks will be presented. The results of this study will be used to design an optimized system for whole body or regional hyperthermia.

  4. Numerical models for prestressing tendons in containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwak, Hyo-Gyoung; Kim, Jae Hong

    2006-01-01

    Two modified stress-strain relations for bonded and unbonded internal tendons are proposed. The proposed relations can simulate the post-cracking behavior and tension stiffening effect in prestressed concrete containment structures. In the case of the bonded tendon, tensile forces between adjacent cracks are transmitted from a bonded tendon to concrete by bond forces. Therefore, the constitutive law of a bonded tendon stiffened by grout needs to be determined from the bond-slip relationship. On the other hand, a stress increase beyond the effective prestress in an unbonded tendon is not section-dependent but member-dependent. It means that the tendon stress unequivocally represents a uniform distribution along the length when the friction loss is excluded. Thus, using a strain reduction factor, the modified stress-strain curve of an unbonded tendon is derived by successive iterations. In advance, the prediction of cracking behavior and ultimate resisting capacity of prestressed concrete containment structures using the introduced numerical models are succeeded, and the need for the consideration of many influencing factors such as the tension stiffening effect, plastic hinge length and modification of stress-strain relation of tendon is emphasized. Finally, the developed numerical models are applied to prestressed concrete containment structures to verify the efficiency and applicability in simulating the structural behavior with bonded and/or unbonded tendons

  5. Numerical modeling of ultrasonic cavitation in ionic liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvisi, Michael L.; Elder, Ross M.

    2017-11-01

    Ionic liquids have favorable properties for sonochemistry applications in which the high temperatures and pressures achieved by cavitation bubbles are important drivers of chemical processes. Two different numerical models are presented to simulate ultrasonic cavitation in ionic liquids, each with different capabilities and physical assumptions. A model based on a compressible form of the Rayleigh-Plesset equation (RPE) simulates ultrasonic cavitation of a spherical bubble with a homogeneous interior, incorporating evaporation and condensation at the bubble surface, and temperature-varying thermodynamic properties in the interior. A second, more computationally intensive model of a spherical bubble uses the finite element method (FEM) and accounts for spatial variations in pressure and temperature throughout the flow domain. This model provides insight into heat transfer across the bubble surface and throughout the bubble interior and exterior. Parametric studies are presented for sonochemistry applications involving ionic liquids as a solvent, examining a range of realistic ionic liquid properties and initial conditions to determine their effect on temperature and pressure. Results from the two models are presented for parametric variations including viscosity, thermal conductivity, water content of the ionic liquid solvent, acoustic frequency, and initial bubble pressure. An additional study performed with the FEM model examines thermal penetration into the surrounding ionic liquid during bubble oscillation. The results suggest the prospect of tuning ionic liquid properties for specific applications.

  6. Numerical modeling of the hydrogeological effects of ONKALO in 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raemae, T.

    2011-10-01

    The underground rock characterization facility ONKALO is currently being excavated in the bedrock of the Olkiluoto Island. The construction work of the ONKALO begun in 2004 and the tunnel will remain open for the whole period of the operation of the planned repository for spent nuclear fuel. The open tunnels cause a disturbance on the local groundwater system. The leakage water flowing into the open tunnels withdraw water from the bedrock and locally alter the natural flow routes. One of the possible consequences of the convergent flow towards the ONKALO is that the highly saline deeper groundwater might be drawn towards the ONKALO, this process is called upconing. The purpose of this work is to estimate the possible upconing of the deep saline waters up to the repository level. A numerical flow and transport simulation is conducted with conservative approach to ensure overestimation of the effects of the ONKALO. In this study a 3D model of the hydrogeological system of the Olkiluoto is used as the basis for numerical flow and transport modeling of the saline groundwater movement in the bedrock of Olkiluoto. The numerical modelling is conducted using the commercial Comsol 3.5a code. The modelled geometry of the ONKALO includes the already excavated ONKALO and the extension according to the layout plan used in this work. The ONKALO and the hydrogeological zones are simplified for this study. In addition the used hydrogeological zones are modelled as 3D blocks with constant thickness of 50 meters. With the used boundary conditions upconing occurs even with the lowest leakage values. The influence of the leakage water is small on the maximum TDS-value at the depth near ONKALO. In this work this phenomenon is explained by the increase in the fresh water infiltration rate as the leakage water is increased, since the low density fresh water is transported more easily downwards than the high density saline water transported upwards towards the ONKALO. Further away from

  7. Monte Carlo Numerical Models for Nuclear Logging Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fusheng Li

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear logging is one of most important logging services provided by many oil service companies. The main parameters of interest are formation porosity, bulk density, and natural radiation. Other services are also provided from using complex nuclear logging tools, such as formation lithology/mineralogy, etc. Some parameters can be measured by using neutron logging tools and some can only be measured by using a gamma ray tool. To understand the response of nuclear logging tools, the neutron transport/diffusion theory and photon diffusion theory are needed. Unfortunately, for most cases there are no analytical answers if complex tool geometry is involved. For many years, Monte Carlo numerical models have been used by nuclear scientists in the well logging industry to address these challenges. The models have been widely employed in the optimization of nuclear logging tool design, and the development of interpretation methods for nuclear logs. They have also been used to predict the response of nuclear logging systems for forward simulation problems. In this case, the system parameters including geometry, materials and nuclear sources, etc., are pre-defined and the transportation and interactions of nuclear particles (such as neutrons, photons and/or electrons in the regions of interest are simulated according to detailed nuclear physics theory and their nuclear cross-section data (probability of interacting. Then the deposited energies of particles entering the detectors are recorded and tallied and the tool responses to such a scenario are generated. A general-purpose code named Monte Carlo N– Particle (MCNP has been the industry-standard for some time. In this paper, we briefly introduce the fundamental principles of Monte Carlo numerical modeling and review the physics of MCNP. Some of the latest developments of Monte Carlo Models are also reviewed. A variety of examples are presented to illustrate the uses of Monte Carlo numerical models

  8. Numerical schemes for one-point closure turbulence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larcher, Aurelien

    2010-01-01

    First-order Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models are studied in this thesis. These latter consist of the Navier-Stokes equations, supplemented with a system of balance equations describing the evolution of characteristic scalar quantities called 'turbulent scales'. In so doing, the contribution of the turbulent agitation to the momentum can be determined by adding a diffusive coefficient (called 'turbulent viscosity') in the Navier-Stokes equations, such that it is defined as a function of the turbulent scales. The numerical analysis problems, which are studied in this dissertation, are treated in the frame of a fractional step algorithm, consisting of an approximation on regular meshes of the Navier-Stokes equations by the nonconforming Crouzeix-Raviart finite elements, and a set of scalar convection-diffusion balance equations discretized by the standard finite volume method. A monotone numerical scheme based on the standard finite volume method is proposed so as to ensure that the turbulent scales, like the turbulent kinetic energy (k) and its dissipation rate (ε), remain positive in the case of the standard k - ε model, as well as the k - ε RNG and the extended k - ε - ν 2 models. The convergence of the proposed numerical scheme is then studied on a system composed of the incompressible Stokes equations and a steady convection-diffusion equation, which are both coupled by the viscosities and the turbulent production term. This reduced model allows to deal with the main difficulty encountered in the analysis of such problems: the definition of the turbulent production term leads to consider a class of convection-diffusion problems with an irregular right-hand side belonging to L 1 . Finally, to step towards the unsteady problem, the convergence of the finite volume scheme for a model convection-diffusion equation with L 1 data is proved. The a priori estimates on the solution and on its time derivative are obtained in discrete norms, for

  9. Numerical modelling of glass dissolution: gel layer morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devreux, F. E-mail: fd@pmc.polytechnique.fr; Barboux, P

    2001-09-01

    Numerical simulations of glass dissolution are presented. The glass is modelized as a random binary mixture composed of two species representing silica and soluble oxides, such as boron and alkali oxides. The soluble species are dissolved immediately when they are in contact with the solution. For the species which represents silica, one introduces dissolution and condensation probabilities. It is shown that the morphology and the thickness of the surface hydration layer (the gel) are highly dependent on the dissolution model, especially on the parameter which controls the surface tension. Simulations with different glass surface area to solution volume ratio (S/V) show that this experimental parameter has important effects on both the shrinkage and the gel layer thickness.

  10. Advanced Combustion Numerics and Modeling - FY18 First Quarter Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitesides, R. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Killingsworth, N. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McNenly, M. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Petitpas, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-01-05

    This project is focused on early stage research and development of numerical methods and models to improve advanced engine combustion concepts and systems. The current focus is on development of new mathematics and algorithms to reduce the time to solution for advanced combustion engine design using detailed fuel chemistry. The research is prioritized towards the most time-consuming workflow bottlenecks (computer and human) and accuracy gaps that slow ACS program members. Zero-RK, the fast and accurate chemical kinetics solver software developed in this project, is central to the research efforts and continues to be developed to address the current and emerging needs of the engine designers, engine modelers and fuel mechanism developers.

  11. Numerical modeling of keyhole dynamics in laser welding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Hai; Zhou, Jun; Tsai, Hai-Lung

    2003-03-01

    Mathematical models and the associated numerical techniques have been developed to study the following cases: (1) the formation and collapse of a keyhole, (2) the formation of porosity and its control strategies, (3) laser welding with filler metals, and (4) the escape of zinc vapor in laser welding of galvanized steel. The simulation results show that the formation of porosity in the weld is caused by two competing mechanisms: one is the solidification rate of the molten metal and the other is the speed that molten metal backfills the keyhole after laser energy is terminated. The models have demonstrated that porosity can be reduced or eliminated by adding filler metals, controlling laser tailing power, or applying an electromagnetic force during keyhole collapse process. It is found that a uniform composition of weld pool is difficult to achieve by filler metals due to very rapid solidification of the weld pool in laser welding, as compared to that in gas metal arc welding.

  12. VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

    2005-04-18

    BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be

  13. VTE Risk assessment – a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schürmann Rolf

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE. There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. Materials and methods A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18–55 years, was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993. The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. Results Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs. A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation. Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%, moderate risk (21.1%, high risk (6.0%, very high risk of future VTE (0.9%. In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. Conclusion Our prognostic tool – containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data

  14. Numerical modeling and optimization of machining duplex stainless steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rastee D. Koyee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The shortcomings of the machining analytical and empirical models in combination with the industry demands have to be fulfilled. A three-dimensional finite element modeling (FEM introduces an attractive alternative to bridge the gap between pure empirical and fundamental scientific quantities, and fulfill the industry needs. However, the challenging aspects which hinder the successful adoption of FEM in the machining sector of manufacturing industry have to be solved first. One of the greatest challenges is the identification of the correct set of machining simulation input parameters. This study presents a new methodology to inversely calculate the input parameters when simulating the machining of standard duplex EN 1.4462 and super duplex EN 1.4410 stainless steels. JMatPro software is first used to model elastic–viscoplastic and physical work material behavior. In order to effectively obtain an optimum set of inversely identified friction coefficients, thermal contact conductance, Cockcroft–Latham critical damage value, percentage reduction in flow stress, and Taylor–Quinney coefficient, Taguchi-VIKOR coupled with Firefly Algorithm Neural Network System is applied. The optimization procedure effectively minimizes the overall differences between the experimentally measured performances such as cutting forces, tool nose temperature and chip thickness, and the numerically obtained ones at any specified cutting condition. The optimum set of input parameter is verified and used for the next step of 3D-FEM application. In the next stage of the study, design of experiments, numerical simulations, and fuzzy rule modeling approaches are employed to optimize types of chip breaker, insert shapes, process conditions, cutting parameters, and tool orientation angles based on many important performances. Through this study, not only a new methodology in defining the optimal set of controllable parameters for turning simulations is introduced, but also

  15. Advanced numerical modelling of a fire. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkilae, L.; Keski-Rahkonen, O.

    1996-03-01

    Experience and probabilistic risk assessments show that fires present a major hazard in a nuclear power plant (NPP). The PALOME project (1988-92) improved the quality of numerical simulation of fires to make it a useful tool for fire safety analysis. Some of the most advanced zone model fire simulation codes were acquired. The performance of the codes was studied through literature and personal interviews in earlier studies and BRI2 code from the Japanese Building Research Institute was selected for further use. In PALOME 2 project this work was continued. Information obtained from large-scale fire tests at the German HDR facility allowed reliable prediction of the rate of heat release and was used for code validation. BRI2 code was validated particularly by participation in the CEC standard problem 'Prediction of effects caused by a cable fire experiment within the HDR-facility'. Participation in the development of a new field model code SOFIE specifically for fire applications as British-Swedish-Finnish cooperation was one of the goals of the project. SOFIE code was implemented at VTT and the first results of validation simulations were obtained. Well instrumented fire tests on electronic cabinets were carried out to determine source terms for simulation of room fires and to estimate fire spread to adjacent cabinets. The particular aim of this study was to measure the rate of heat release from a fire in an electronic cabinet. From the three tests, differing mainly in the amount of the fire load, data was obtained for source terms in numerical modelling of fires in rooms containing electronic cabinets. On the basis of these tests also a simple natural ventilation model was derived. (19 refs.)

  16. Numerical explorations of R. M. Goodwin's business cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakimowicz, Aleksander

    2010-01-01

    Goodwin's model, which was formulated in , still attracts economists' attention. The model possesses numerous interesting properties that have been discovered only recently due to the development of the chaos theory and the complexity theory. The first numerical explorations of the model were conducted in the early s by Strotz, McAnulty and Naines (1953). They discovered the coexistence of attractors that are well-known today, two properties of chaotic systems: the sensitive dependence on the initial conditions and the sensitive dependence on parameters. The occurrence of periodic and chaotic attractors is dependent on the value of parameters in a system. In case of certain parametric values fractal basin boundaries exist which results in enormous system sensitivity to external noise. If periodic attractors are placed in the neighborhood of the fractal basin boundaries, then even a low external noise can move the trajectory into the region in which the basin's structure is tangled. This leads to a kind of movement that resembles a chaotic movement on a strange attractor. In Goodwin's model, apart from typical chaotic behavior, there exists yet another kind of complex movements - transient chaotic behavior that is caused by the occurrence of invariant chaotic sets that are not attracting. Such sets are represented by chaotic saddles. Some of the latest observation methods of trajectories lying on invariant chaotic sets that are not attracting are straddle methods. This article provides examples of the basin boundary straddle trajectory and the saddle straddle trajectory. These cases were studied by Lorenz and Nusse (2002). I supplement the results they acquired with calculations of capacity dimension and correlation dimension.

  17. Mechanical Interaction in Pressurized Pipe Systems: Experiments and Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Simão

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic interaction between the unsteady flow occurrence and the resulting vibration of the pipe are analyzed based on experiments and numerical models. Waterhammer, structural dynamic and fluid–structure interaction (FSI are the main subjects dealt with in this study. Firstly, a 1D model is developed based on the method of characteristics (MOC using specific damping coefficients for initial components associated with rheological pipe material behavior, structural and fluid deformation, and type of anchored structural supports. Secondly a 3D coupled complex model based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD, using a Finite Element Method (FEM, is also applied to predict and distinguish the FSI events. Herein, a specific hydrodynamic model of viscosity to replicate the operation of a valve was also developed to minimize the number of mesh elements and the complexity of the system. The importance of integrated analysis of fluid–structure interaction, especially in non-rigidity anchored pipe systems, is equally emphasized. The developed models are validated through experimental tests.

  18. Numerical modeling of buoyancy-driven turbulent flows in enclosures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, K.J.; Lien, F.S.

    2004-01-01

    Modeling turbulent natural convection in enclosures with differentially heated vertical walls is numerically challenging, in particular, when low-Reynolds-number (low-Re) models are adopted. When the turbulence level in the core region of cavity is low, most low-Re models, particular those showing good performance for bypass transitional flows, tend to relaminarize the flow and, as a consequence, significantly underpredict the near-wall turbulence intensities and boundary-layer thickness. Another challenge associated with low-turbulence buoyancy-driven flows in enclosures is its inherent unsteadiness, which can pose convergence problems when a steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation is solved. In the present study, an unsteady RANS approach in conjunction with the low-Re k-ε model of Lien and Leschziner [Int. J. Comput. Fluid Dyn. 12 (1999) 1] is initially adopted and the predicted flow field is found effectively relaminarized. To overcome this difficulty, likely caused by the low-Re functions in the ε-equation, the two-layer approach is attempted, in which ε is prescribed algebraically using the one-equation k-l model of Wolfshtein [Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 12 (1969) 301]. The two-layer approach combined with a quadratic stress-strain relation gives overall the best performance in terms of mean velocities, temperature and turbulence quantities

  19. Numerical approaches to model perturbation fire in turing pattern formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campagna, R.; Brancaccio, M.; Cuomo, S.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Siettos, K.; Giannino, F.

    2017-11-01

    Turing patterns were observed in chemical, physical and biological systems described by coupled reaction-diffusion equations. Several models have been formulated proposing the water as the causal mechanism of vegetation pattern formation, but this isn't an exhaustive hypothesis in some natural environments. An alternative explanation has been related to the plant-soil negative feedback. In Marasco et al. [1] the authors explored the hypothesis that both mechanisms contribute in the formation of regular and irregular vegetation patterns. The mathematical model consists in three partial differential equations (PDEs) that take into account for a dynamic balance between biomass, water and toxic compounds. A numerical approach is mandatory also to investigate on the predictions of this kind of models. In this paper we start from the mathematical model described in [1], set the model parameters such that the biomass reaches a stable spatial pattern (spots) and present preliminary studies about the occurrence of perturbing events, such as wildfire, that can affect the regularity of the biomass configuration.

  20. Numerical modeling of laser assisted tape winding process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaami, Amin; Baran, Ismet; Akkerman, Remko

    2017-10-01

    Laser assisted tape winding (LATW) has become more and more popular way of producing new thermoplastic products such as ultra-deep sea water riser, gas tanks, structural parts for aerospace applications. Predicting the temperature in LATW has been a source of great interest since the temperature at nip-point plays a key role for mechanical interface performance. Modeling the LATW process includes several challenges such as the interaction of optics and heat transfer. In the current study, numerical modeling of the optical behavior of laser radiation on circular surfaces is investigated based on a ray tracing and non-specular reflection model. The non-specular reflection is implemented considering the anisotropic reflective behavior of the fiber-reinforced thermoplastic tape using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The proposed model in the present paper includes a three-dimensional circular geometry, in which the effects of reflection from different ranges of the circular surface as well as effect of process parameters on temperature distribution are studied. The heat transfer model is constructed using a fully implicit method. The effect of process parameters on the nip-point temperature is examined. Furthermore, several laser distributions including Gaussian and linear are examined which has not been considered in literature up to now.

  1. Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J.C.; Geyer, W.R.; Lerczak, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Numerical simulations of the Hudson River estuary using a terrain-following, three-dimensional model (Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)) are compared with an extensive set of time series and spatially resolved measurements over a 43 day period with large variations in tidal forcing and river discharge. The model is particularly effective at reproducing the observed temporal variations in both the salinity and current structure, including tidal, spring neap, and river discharge-induced variability. Large observed variations in stratification between neap and spring tides are captured qualitatively and quantitatively by the model. The observed structure and variations of the longitudinal salinity gradient are also well reproduced. The most notable discrepancy between the model and the data is in the vertical salinity structure. While the surface-to-bottom salinity difference is well reproduced, the stratification in the model tends to extend all the way to the water surface, whereas the observations indicate a distinct pycnocline and a surface mixed layer. Because the southern boundary coindition is located near the mouth the estuary, the salinity within the domain is particularly sensitive to the specification of salinity at the boundary. A boundary condition for the horizontal salinity gradient, based on the local value of salinity, is developed to incorporate physical processes beyond the open boundary not resolved by the model. Model results are sensitive to the specification of the bottom roughness length and vertical stability functions, insofar as they influence the intensity of vertical mixing. The results only varied slightly between different turbulence closure methods of k-??, k-??, and k-kl. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. A numerical strategy for modelling rotating stall in core compressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahdati, M.

    2007-03-01

    The paper will focus on one specific core-compressor instability, rotating stall, because of the pressing industrial need to improve current design methods. The determination of the blade response during rotating stall is a difficult problem for which there is no reliable procedure. During rotating stall, the blades encounter the stall cells and the excitation depends on the number, size, exact shape and rotational speed of these cells. The long-term aim is to minimize the forced response due to rotating stall excitation by avoiding potential matches between the vibration modes and the rotating stall pattern characteristics. Accurate numerical simulations of core-compressor rotating stall phenomena require the modelling of a large number of bladerows using grids containing several tens of millions of points. The time-accurate unsteady-flow computations may need to be run for several engine revolutions for rotating stall to get initiated and many more before it is fully developed. The difficulty in rotating stall initiation arises from a lack of representation of the triggering disturbances which are inherently present in aeroengines. Since the numerical model represents a symmetric assembly, the only random mechanism for rotating stall initiation is provided by numerical round-off errors. In this work, rotating stall is initiated by introducing a small amount of geometric mistuning to the rotor blades. Another major obstacle in modelling flows near stall is the specification of appropriate upstream and downstream boundary conditions. Obtaining reliable boundary conditions for such flows can be very difficult. In the present study, the low-pressure compression (LPC) domain is placed upstream of the core compressor. With such an approach, only far field atmospheric boundary conditions are specified which are obtained from aircraft speed and altitude. A chocked variable-area nozzle, placed after the last compressor bladerow in the model, is used to impose boundary

  3. Implicit coupling of turbulent diffusion with chemical reaction mechanisms for prognostic atmospheric dispersion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berlowitz, D.R.

    1996-11-01

    In the last few decades the negative impact by humans on the thin atmospheric layer enveloping the earth, the basis for life on this planet, has increased steadily. In order to halt, or at least slow down this development, the knowledge and study of these anthropogenic influence has to be increased and possible remedies have to be suggested. An important tool for these studies are computer models. With their help the atmospheric system can be approximated and the various processes, which have led to the current situation can be quantified. They also serve as an instrument to assess short or medium term strategies to reduce this human impact. However, to assure efficiency as well as accuracy, a careful analysis of the numerous processes involved in the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere is called for. This should help to concentrate on the essentials and also prevent excessive usage of sometimes scarce computing resources. The basis of the presented work is the EUMAC Zooming Model (ETM), and particularly the component calculating the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere, the model MARS. The model has two main parts: an explicit solver, where the advection and the horizontal diffusion of pollutants are calculated, and an implicit solution mechanism, allowing the joint computation of the change of concentration due to chemical reactions, coupled with the respective influence of the vertical diffusion of the species. The aim of this thesis is to determine particularly the influence of the horizontal components of the turbulent diffusion on the existing implicit solver of the model. Suggestions for a more comprehensive inclusion of the full three dimensional diffusion operator in the implicit solver are made. This is achieved by an appropriate operator splitting. A selection of numerical approaches to tighten the coupling of the diffusion processes with the calculation of the applied chemical reaction mechanisms are examined. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  4. Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc

    2016-04-01

    Coastal zones are living and constantly changing environments where both the natural events and the human-interaction results come into picture regarding to the shoreline behavior. Both the nature of the coastal zone and the human activities shape together the resultants of the interaction with oceans and coasts. Natural extreme events may result in the need of human interference, such as building coastal structures in order to prevent from disasters or any man-made structure throughout a coastline may affect the hydrodynamics and morphology in the nearshore. In order to understand and cope with this cycle of cause and effect relationship, the numerical models developed. XBeach is an open-source, 2DH, depth average numerical model including the hydrodynamic processes of short wave transformation (refraction, shoaling and breaking), long wave (infragravity wave) transformation (generation, propagation and dissipation), wave-induced setup and unsteady currents, as well as overwash and inundation and morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching (Roelvink et al., 2010). Together with XBeach numerical model, it is possible to both verify and visualize the resultant external effects to the initial shorelines in coastal zones. Recently, Baykal et al. (2015) modelled the long term morphology changes with XBeach near Kızılırmak river mouth consisting of one I-shaped and one Y-shaped groins. In order to investigate the nature of the shoreline and near shore hydrodynamic conditions and morphology, the five laboratory experiments are conducted in the Largescale Sediment Transport Facility at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center in order to be used to improve longshore sand transport relationships under the combined influence of waves and currents and the enhancement of predictive numerical models of beach morphology evolution. The first series of the experiments were aimed at

  5. Numerical Analysis of Ginzburg-Landau Models for Superconductivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coskun, Erhan

    Thin film conventional, as well as High T _{c} superconductors of various geometric shapes placed under both uniform and variable strength magnetic field are studied using the universially accepted macroscopic Ginzburg-Landau model. A series of new theoretical results concerning the properties of solution is presented using the semi -discrete time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equations, staggered grid setup and natural boundary conditions. Efficient serial algorithms including a novel adaptive algorithm is developed and successfully implemented for solving the governing highly nonlinear parabolic system of equations. Refinement technique used in the adaptive algorithm is based on modified forward Euler method which was also developed by us to ease the restriction on time step size for stability considerations. Stability and convergence properties of forward and modified forward Euler schemes are studied. Numerical simulations of various recent physical experiments of technological importance such as vortes motion and pinning are performed. The numerical code for solving time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equations is parallelized using BlockComm -Chameleon and PCN. The parallel code was run on the distributed memory multiprocessors intel iPSC/860, IBM-SP1 and cluster of Sun Sparc workstations, all located at Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory.

  6. CDIAC catalog of numeric data packages and computer model packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boden, T.A.; Stoss, F.W.

    1993-05-01

    The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center acquires, quality-assures, and distributes to the scientific community numeric data packages (NDPs) and computer model packages (CMPs) dealing with topics related to atmospheric trace-gas concentrations and global climate change. These packages include data on historic and present atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentrations, historic and present oceanic CO 2 concentrations, historic weather and climate around the world, sea-level rise, storm occurrences, volcanic dust in the atmosphere, sources of atmospheric CO 2 , plants' response to elevated CO 2 levels, sunspot occurrences, and many other indicators of, contributors to, or components of climate change. This catalog describes the packages presently offered by CDIAC, reviews the processes used by CDIAC to assure the quality of the data contained in these packages, notes the media on which each package is available, describes the documentation that accompanies each package, and provides ordering information. Numeric data are available in the printed NDPs and CMPs, in CD-ROM format, and from an anonymous FTP area via Internet. All CDIAC information products are available at no cost

  7. Numerical modelling of diesel spray using the Eulerian multiphase approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vujanović, Milan; Petranović, Zvonimir; Edelbauer, Wilfried; Baleta, Jakov; Duić, Neven

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Numerical model for fuel disintegration was presented. • Fuel liquid and vapour were calculated. • Good agreement with experimental data was shown for various combinations of injection and chamber pressure. - Abstract: This research investigates high pressure diesel fuel injection into the combustion chamber by performing computational simulations using the Euler–Eulerian multiphase approach. Six diesel-like conditions were simulated for which the liquid fuel jet was injected into a pressurised inert environment (100% N 2 ) through a 205 μm nozzle hole. The analysis was focused on the liquid jet and vapour penetration, describing spatial and temporal spray evolution. For this purpose, an Eulerian multiphase model was implemented, variations of the sub-model coefficients were performed, and their impact on the spray formation was investigated. The final set of sub-model coefficients was applied to all operating points. Several simulations of high pressure diesel injections (50, 80, and 120 MPa) combined with different chamber pressures (5.4 and 7.2 MPa) were carried out and results were compared to the experimental data. The predicted results share a similar spray cloud shape for all conditions with the different vapour and liquid penetration length. The liquid penetration is shortened with the increase in chamber pressure, whilst the vapour penetration is more pronounced by elevating the injection pressure. Finally, the results showed good agreement when compared to the measured data, and yielded the correct trends for both the liquid and vapour penetrations under different operating conditions

  8. Merging AI and numerical modeling for accelerator control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, D.E.; Silbar, R.R.

    1987-01-01

    The authors report the beginnings of an experiment to evaluate the power and limitations of artificial intelligence techniques combined with beam-line modeling for solving problems in accelerator control. Using the Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) system, they have built a knowledge base that describes the characteristics and the relationships of about 30 devices in a typical accelerator beam line. Each device in the line is categorized and pertinent attributes for each category are defined. Specific values for each device are assigned in the knowledge base to represent static characteristics. Device-specific slots are also provided for dynamic attributes. The definition of these slots reflects the data type and any limitations or restrictions on the range of the data. The authors model relationships between the various beam-line devices using the techniques of rules, active values, and object-oriented models. The knowledge base provides a framework for analyzing faults and offering suggestions to assist in tuning, based on information provided by the accelerator physicists (domain experts) responsible for designing and tuning this beam line. Our knowledge base has a powerful graphical interface. It allows the operator to mouse on an icon for a particular icon in the schematic of the beam line and obtain device-specific information and control over that device. The beam optics code Transport is used to model the beam line numerically. 11 refs., 7 figs

  9. Numerical Modeling of Electrical Contact Conductance of Rough Bodies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Murashov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 20th century to the present time, efforts have been made to develop a model of the electrical contact conductance. The development of micro- and nanotechnologies make contact conductance problem more essential. To conduct borrowing from a welldeveloped thermal contact conductance models on the basis of thermal and electrical conductivity analogy is often not possible due to a number of fundamental differences. While some 3Dmodels of rough bodies deformation have been developed in one way or another, a 3D-model of the electrical conductance through rough bodies contact is still not. A spatial model of electrical contact of rough bodies is proposed, allows one to calculate the electrical contact conductance as a function of the contact pressure. Representative elements of the bodies are parallelepipeds with deterministic roughness on the contacting surfaces. First the non-linear elastic-plastic deformation of rough surface under external pressure is solved using the finite element software ANSYS. Then the solution of electrostatic problem goes on the same finite element mesh. Aluminum AD1 is used as the material of the contacting bodies with properties that account for cold work hardening of the surface. The numerical model is built within the continuum mechanics and nanoscale effects are not taken into account. The electrical contact conductance was calculated on the basis of the concept of electrical resistance of the model as the sum of the electrical resistances of the contacting bodies and the contact itself. It was assumed that there is no air in the gap between the bodies. The dependence of the electrical contact conductance on the contact pressure is calculated as well as voltage and current density distributions in the contact bodies. It is determined that the multi-asperity contact mode, adequate to real roughness, is achieved at pressures higher than 3MPa, while results within the single contact spot are

  10. Prognostic meta-signature of breast cancer developed by two-stage mixture modeling of microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghosh Debashis

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing number of studies have profiled tumor specimens using distinct microarray platforms and analysis techniques. With the accumulating amount of microarray data, one of the most intriguing yet challenging tasks is to develop robust statistical models to integrate the findings. Results By applying a two-stage Bayesian mixture modeling strategy, we were able to assimilate and analyze four independent microarray studies to derive an inter-study validated "meta-signature" associated with breast cancer prognosis. Combining multiple studies (n = 305 samples on a common probability scale, we developed a 90-gene meta-signature, which strongly associated with survival in breast cancer patients. Given the set of independent studies using different microarray platforms which included spotted cDNAs, Affymetrix GeneChip, and inkjet oligonucleotides, the individually identified classifiers yielded gene sets predictive of survival in each study cohort. The study-specific gene signatures, however, had minimal overlap with each other, and performed poorly in pairwise cross-validation. The meta-signature, on the other hand, accommodated such heterogeneity and achieved comparable or better prognostic performance when compared with the individual signatures. Further by comparing to a global standardization method, the mixture model based data transformation demonstrated superior properties for data integration and provided solid basis for building classifiers at the second stage. Functional annotation revealed that genes involved in cell cycle and signal transduction activities were over-represented in the meta-signature. Conclusion The mixture modeling approach unifies disparate gene expression data on a common probability scale allowing for robust, inter-study validated prognostic signatures to be obtained. With the emerging utility of microarrays for cancer prognosis, it will be important to establish paradigms to meta

  11. Integrated numerical modeling of a laser gun injector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, H.; Benson, S.; Bisognano, J.; Liger, P.; Neil, G.; Neuffer, D.; Sinclair, C.; Yunn, B.

    1993-06-01

    CEBAF is planning to incorporate a laser gun injector into the linac front end as a high-charge cw source for a high-power free electron laser and nuclear physics. This injector consists of a DC laser gun, a buncher, a cryounit and a chicane. The performance of the injector is predicted based on integrated numerical modeling using POISSON, SUPERFISH and PARMELA. The point-by-point method incorporated into PARMELA by McDonald is chosen for space charge treatment. The concept of ''conditioning for final bunching'' is employed to vary several crucial parameters of the system for achieving highest peak current while maintaining low emittance and low energy spread. Extensive parameter variation studies show that the design will perform beyond the specifications for FEL operations aimed at industrial applications and fundamental scientific research. The calculation also shows that the injector will perform as an extremely bright cw electron source

  12. Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2014-01-01

    Selective laser melting is developing into a standard manufacturing technology with applications in various sectors. However, the process is still far from being at par with conventional processes such as welding and casting, the primary reason of which is the unreliability of the process. While...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...... parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....

  13. Numerical modelling of flow pattern for high swirling flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parra Teresa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work focuses on the interaction of two coaxial swirling jets. High swirl burners are suitable for lean flames and produce low emissions. Computational Fluid Dynamics has been used to study the isothermal behaviour of two confined jets whose setup and operating conditions are those of the benchmark of Roback and Johnson. Numerical model is a Total Variation Diminishing and PISO is used to pressure velocity coupling. Transient analysis let identify the non-axisymmetric region of reverse flow. The center of instantaneous azimuthal velocities is not located in the axis of the chamber. The temporal sampling evidences this center spins around the axis of the device forming the precessing vortex core (PVC whose Strouhal numbers are more than two for Swirl numbers of one. Influence of swirl number evidences strong swirl numbers are precursor of large vortex breakdown. Influence of conical diffusers evidence the reduction of secondary flows associated to boundary layer separation.

  14. Numerical model of electron cyclotron resonance ion source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mironov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features of the electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS operation are accurately reproduced with a numerical code. The code uses the particle-in-cell technique to model the dynamics of ions in ECRIS plasma. It is shown that a gas dynamical ion confinement mechanism is sufficient to provide the ion production rates in ECRIS close to the experimentally observed values. Extracted ion currents are calculated and compared to the experiment for a few sources. Changes in the simulated extracted ion currents are obtained with varying the gas flow into the source chamber and the microwave power. Empirical scaling laws for ECRIS design are studied and the underlying physical effects are discussed.

  15. Experimental and numerical investigation of a simplified exhaust model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balázs Vehovszky

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A simplified experimental equipment was built to investigate heat radiation and free convection around hot exhaust pipe. Temperatures were measured on the surface of the pipe as like as on heat insulating and -reflecting aluminum shield. Special care was taken to the temperature measuring method: result proved that inappropriate fixing of measuring thermocouples lead to an error of up to 30 % in the temperature-increase values. A detailed 1D numerical model was set up and parametrized so as to the calculation results can be fitted to measured temperature values. In this way thermal properties of the surfaces – as emissivities, absorption coefficients and convective heat transfer coefficients – were determined for temperature sweeps and stationary state cases. The used methods are to be further improved for real automotive parts and higher temperatures.

  16. Numerical model for dendritic solidification of binary alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felicelli, S. D.; Heinrich, J. C.; Poirier, D. R.

    1993-01-01

    A finite element model capable of simulating solidification of binary alloys and the formation of freckles is presented. It uses a single system of equations to deal with the all-liquid region, the dendritic region, and the all-solid region. The dendritic region is treated as an anisotropic porous medium. The algorithm uses the bilinear isoparametric element, with a penalty function approximation and a Petrov-Galerkin formulation. Numerical simulations are shown in which an NH4Cl-H2O mixture and a Pb-Sn alloy melt are cooled. The solidification process is followed in time. Instabilities in the process can be clearly observed and the final compositions obtained.

  17. Modelling of cardiovascular system: development of a hybrid (numerical-physical) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, G; Kozarski, M; De Lazzari, C; Górczyńska, K; Mimmo, R; Guaragno, M; Tosti, G; Darowski, M

    2003-12-01

    Physical models of the circulation are used for research, training and for testing of implantable active and passive circulatory prosthetic and assistance devices. However, in comparison with numerical models, they are rigid and expensive. To overcome these limitations, we have developed a model of the circulation based on the merging of a lumped parameter physical model into a numerical one (producing therefore a hybrid). The physical model is limited to the barest essentials and, in this application, developed to test the principle, it is a windkessel representing the systemic arterial tree. The lumped parameters numerical model was developed in LabVIEW environment and represents pulmonary and systemic circulation (except the systemic arterial tree). Based on the equivalence between hydraulic and electrical circuits, this prototype was developed connecting the numerical model to an electrical circuit--the physical model. This specific solution is valid mainly educationally but permits the development of software and the verification of preliminary results without using cumbersome hydraulic circuits. The interfaces between numerical and electrical circuits are set up by a voltage controlled current generator and a voltage controlled voltage generator. The behavior of the model is analyzed based on the ventricular pressure-volume loops and on the time course of arterial and ventricular pressures and flow in different circulatory conditions. The model can represent hemodynamic relationships in different ventricular and circulatory conditions.

  18. Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

  19. Numerical and physical modelling of oil spreading in broken ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjoesteen, Janne K. Oekland

    2002-01-01

    The present work focuses on oil spreading in broken ice and the content of this thesis falls into three categories: 1) The physical and numerical modelling of oil spreading in ice. 2) Ice models and parameters describing the ice cover. 3) Experiments on oil spreading in broken ice. A background study was carried out to investigate existing models for simulating oil in broken ice. Most of them describe motion of oil simply as a function of the ice motion and do not take advantage of the possibilities that recent ice models provide. We decided to choose another direction, starting from scratch with equations describing the flow of oil on top of a water surface. The equations were implemented numerically, including proper boundary conditions to account for the presence of physical restrictions in the form of ice floes in the simulation area. The implementation was designed to be able to apply data on ice motion calculated by an existing dynamic ice model. A first validation of the model was carried out using existing experimental data. As those data were obtained in a different setting, the recorded parameters and set-up of the experiment were not ideal for our purpose. However, we were able to conclude that our model behaviour was reasonable. We have carried out statistical analysis on meteorological data of wind speeds, temperatures, flow sizes and ice thickness to obtain probability distributions describing the parameters. Those data has been collected in the Pechora Sea. Wind and temperature had been recorded for a period of 30-40 years. For this region we also had available Argos satellite data from four buoys drifting in the ice in April-June 1998. The Argos data were carefully analysed to suggest probability distributions and return periods for certain speeds. (Indoor basin tests were carried out to obtain data on spreading of oil in broken ice. A set of 20 tests was conducted, each with different type of oil, ice concentration, slush concentration or ice

  20. Numerical and physical modelling of oil spreading in broken ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gjoesteen, Janne K. Oekland

    2002-07-01

    The present work focuses on oil spreading in broken ice and the content of this thesis falls into three categories: 1) The physical and numerical modelling of oil spreading in ice. 2) Ice models and parameters describing the ice cover. 3) Experiments on oil spreading in broken ice. A background study was carried out to investigate existing models for simulating oil in broken ice. Most of them describe motion of oil simply as a function of the ice motion and do not take advantage of the possibilities that recent ice models provide. We decided to choose another direction, starting from scratch with equations describing the flow of oil on top of a water surface. The equations were implemented numerically, including proper boundary conditions to account for the presence of physical restrictions in the form of ice floes in the simulation area. The implementation was designed to be able to apply data on ice motion calculated by an existing dynamic ice model. A first validation of the model was carried out using existing experimental data. As those data were obtained in a different setting, the recorded parameters and set-up of the experiment were not ideal for our purpose. However, we were able to conclude that our model behaviour was reasonable. We have carried out statistical analysis on meteorological data of wind speeds, temperatures, flow sizes and ice thickness to obtain probability distributions describing the parameters. Those data has been collected in the Pechora Sea. Wind and temperature had been recorded for a period of 30-40 years. For this region we also had available Argos satellite data from four buoys drifting in the ice in April-June 1998. The Argos data were carefully analysed to suggest probability distributions and return periods for certain speeds. (Indoor basin tests were carried out to obtain data on spreading of oil in broken ice. A set of 20 tests was conducted, each with different type of oil, ice concentration, slush concentration or ice

  1. Description of Supply Openings in Numerical Models for Room Air Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    This paper discusses various possibilities for describing supply openings in numerical models of room air distribution.......This paper discusses various possibilities for describing supply openings in numerical models of room air distribution....

  2. Numerical modeling of rapidly varying flows using HEC-RAS and WSPG models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Prasada; Hromadka, Theodore V

    2016-01-01

    The performance of two popular hydraulic models (HEC-RAS and WSPG) for modeling hydraulic jump in an open channel is investigated. The numerical solutions are compared with a new experimental data set obtained for varying channel bottom slopes and flow rates. Both the models satisfactorily predict the flow depths and location of the jump. The end results indicate that the numerical models output is sensitive to the value of chosen roughness coefficient. For this application, WSPG model is easier to implement with few input variables.

  3. Proposal of a clinical typing system and generation of a prognostic model in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma from Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Peng; Chen, Cui; Chen, Xin-Lin; Cheng, Yi-Kan; Zeng, Lei; Zeng, Zhi-Jian; Liu, Li-Zhi; Su, Yong; Gu, Mo-Fa

    2014-01-01

    To propose a novel clinical typing classification focusing on the distinct progression patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), to supplement our knowledge of the clinical-biological behavior, to provide useful knowledge for treatment planning, and to contribute to basic research in NPC. 632 consecutive patients were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed according to the novel typing system. We considered that NPC can be divided into 5 types as follows: limited (L), ascending (A), descending (D) ascending- descending (mixed) (AD), and distant metastasis types (M). The distribution of these clinical types, their association with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) serology and prognostic value were explored. 55 (8.70%), 59 (9.34%), 177 (28.01%), 321 (50.79%) and 20 (3.16%) patients were classified as Type L, A, D, AD and M, respectively. EBV (VCA)-IgA titers, EBV early antigen (EA)-IgA serum titers, and capsid antigen lg(EBV DNA) were positively associated with the clinical typing (pTypes L, A, D, AD and M were 100, 100, 95.10, 88.20 and 59.30%, respectively (ptype, which were independent predictors of OS (multivariate Cox proportional model). The prognostic model stratified patients into 4 risk subgroups. The 3-year OS rates of the low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk groups were 99.5, 90.0, 85.5 and 53.2%, respectively (ptyping system and prognostic model can supplement TNM classification, and may help design novel treatment strategies, evaluate risk stratification and investigate the varied biological characteristics of NPC.

  4. A first appraisal of prognostic ocean DMS models and prospects for their use in climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Clainche, Yvonnick; Vezina, Alain; Levasseur, Maurice; Cropp, Roger A.; Gunson, Jim R.; Vallina, Sergio M.; Vogt, Meike; Lancelot, Christiane; Allen, J. Icarus; Archer, Stephen D.; Bopp, Laurent; Deal, Clara; Elliott, Scott; Jin, Meibing; Malin, Gill; Schoemann, Veronique; Simo, Rafel; Six, Katharina D.; Stefels, Jacqueline

    2010-01-01

    Ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) produced by marine biota is the largest natural source of atmospheric sulfur, playing a major role in the formation and evolution of aerosols, and consequently affecting climate. Several dynamic process-based DMS models have been developed over the last decade, and work

  5. Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

    2017-11-01

    The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

  6. Numerical study of similarity in prototype and model pumped turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Z J; Wang, Z W; Bi, H L

    2014-01-01

    Similarity study of prototype and model pumped turbines are performed by numerical simulation and the partial discharge case is analysed in detail. It is found out that in the RSI (rotor-stator interaction) region where the flow is convectively accelerated with minor flow separation, a high level of similarity in flow patterns and pressure fluctuation appear with relative pressure fluctuation amplitude of model turbine slightly higher than that of prototype turbine. As for the condition in the runner where the flow is convectively accelerated with severe separation, similarity fades substantially due to different topology of flow separation and vortex formation brought by distinctive Reynolds numbers of the two turbines. In the draft tube where the flow is diffusively decelerated, similarity becomes debilitated owing to different vortex rope formation impacted by Reynolds number. It is noted that the pressure fluctuation amplitude and characteristic frequency of model turbine are larger than those of prototype turbine. The differences in pressure fluctuation characteristics are discussed theoretically through dimensionless Navier-Stokes equation. The above conclusions are all made based on simulation without regard to the penstock response and resonance

  7. Modeling multiscale evolution of numerous voids in shocked brittle material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yin; Wang, Wenqiang; He, Hongliang; Lu, Tiecheng

    2014-04-01

    The influence of the evolution of numerous voids on macroscopic properties of materials is a multiscale problem that challenges computational research. A shock-wave compression model for brittle material, which can obtain both microscopic evolution and macroscopic shock properties, was developed using discrete element methods (lattice model). Using a model interaction-parameter-mapping procedure, qualitative features, as well as trends in the calculated shock-wave profiles, are shown to agree with experimental results. The shock wave splits into an elastic wave and a deformation wave in porous brittle materials, indicating significant shock plasticity. Void collapses in the deformation wave were the natural reason for volume shrinkage and deformation. However, media slippage and rotation deformations indicated by complex vortex patterns composed of relative velocity vectors were also confirmed as an important source of shock plasticity. With increasing pressure, the contribution from slippage deformation to the final plastic strain increased. Porosity was found to determine the amplitude of the elastic wave; porosity and shock stress together determine propagation speed of the deformation wave, as well as stress and strain on the final equilibrium state. Thus, shock behaviors of porous brittle material can be systematically designed for specific applications.

  8. A numerical model for etching through a circular hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, P; Chai, J C; Zheng, H; Lam, Y C; Murukeshan, V M

    2006-01-01

    A numerical model based on the total concentration of etchant is proposed to model the wet chemical etching through a circular hole. The reaction at the etchant-substrate interface is assumed to be infinitely fast i.e. etching is controlled by the diffusion of etchant to the interface. The proposed model is based on a fixed-grid approach analogous to the enthalpy method. The total concentration of etchant is the sum of the unreacted etchant concentration and the reacted etchant concentration. The reacted concentration of etchant is a measure of the etchfront position during etching. The governing mass diffusion equation based on the total concentration of etchant includes the interface condition. The etchfront position is found implicitly using the proposed approach. The computational domain is fixed, which includes the whole etchant and substrate domain including the mask region. For demonstration purposes, the finite volume method is used to solve the governing mass diffusion equation with prescribed initial and boundary conditions. The effect of mask thickness and initial etchant concentration on the shape evolution of etchfront is studied

  9. A numerical two layer model for blood oxygenation in lungs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aminatai, A.

    2001-01-01

    In the modelling of the simultaneous transport of O 2 and CO 2 in the pulmonary circulation described in our earlier studies, the blood has been treated as a homogeneous layer of haemoglobin solution. Since the size of the erythrocyte is not negligible in comparison with that of the capillary, the blood can no longer be considered as a homogeneous fluid and hence, It is worthwhile to consider the blood flow as a two-phase flow consisting of cells and plasma. In the present study, the heterogeneous nature of blood has been proposed by considering the axial train model for the flow [whitmore (1967)], in order to analyze the effect of cell free plasma layer on the process of blood oxygenation in pulmonary capillaries. The proposed model consists of a core of suspended erythrocytes surrounded by a cell free plasma layer near the wall. The coupled system of convective diffusion equaions together with the physiologically relevant boundary, entrance and interface conditions is solved numerically by a four-point semi-implicit scheme to gether with a fixed point iterative technique. The distance traversed by the blood before getting fully oxygenated is computed. It is shown that the core haematocrit and the thickness of the cell depleted layer affect the oxygenation process significantly. It is found that (i) oxygen takes longest and carbondioxide is the fastest to attain equilibraton, (ii) the blood is completely oxygenated within one-fifth part of its transit and (iii) the rate of oxygenation is smaller in case of homogeneous model than that in heterogenous model in the capillary. Finally, the effect of various physiological parameters on the rate of oxygenation has been examined

  10. Axisymmetric Numerical Modeling of Pulse Detonation Rocket Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Christopher I.

    2005-01-01

    Pulse detonation rocket engines (PDREs) have generated research interest in recent years as a chemical propulsion system potentially offering improved performance and reduced complexity compared to conventional rocket engines. The detonative mode of combustion employed by these devices offers a thermodynamic advantage over the constant-pressure deflagrative combustion mode used in conventional rocket engines and gas turbines. However, while this theoretical advantage has spurred considerable interest in building PDRE devices, the unsteady blowdown process intrinsic to the PDRE has made realistic estimates of the actual propulsive performance problematic. The recent review article by Kailasanath highlights some of the progress that has been made in comparing the available experimental measurements with analytical and numerical models. In recent work by the author, a quasi-one-dimensional, finite rate chemistry CFD model was utilized to study the gasdynamics and performance characteristics of PDREs over a range of blowdown pressure ratios from 1-1000. Models of this type are computationally inexpensive, and enable first-order parametric studies of the effect of several nozzle and extension geometries on PDRE performance over a wide range of conditions. However, the quasi-one-dimensional approach is limited in that it cannot properly capture the multidimensional blast wave and flow expansion downstream of the PDRE, nor can it resolve nozzle flow separation if present. Moreover, the previous work was limited to single-pulse calculations. In this paper, an axisymmetric finite rate chemistry model is described and utilized to study these issues in greater detail. Example Mach number contour plots showing the multidimensional blast wave and nozzle exhaust plume are shown. The performance results are compared with the quasi-one-dimensional results from the previous paper. Both Euler and Navier-Stokes solutions are calculated in order to determine the effect of viscous

  11. Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, M. S. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Keene, William C. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Zhang, J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Reichl, B. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Shi, Y. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Hara, T. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Reid, J. S. [Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA (United States); Fox-Kemper, B. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences; Craig, A. P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Erickson, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division; Ginis, I. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Webb, A. [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Ocean Technology, Policy, and Environment

    2016-11-08

    Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na+, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.

  12. Numerical Study of Wind Turbine Wake Modeling Based on a Actuator Surface Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Huai-yang; Xu, Chang; Han, Xing Xing

    2017-01-01

    In the Actuator Surface Model (ALM), the turbine blades are represented by porous surfaces of velocity and pressure discontinuities to model the action of lifting surfaces on the flow. The numerical simulation is implemented on FLUENT platform combined with N-S equations. This model is improved o...

  13. Stratified flows with variable density: mathematical modelling and numerical challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Javier; Navas-Montilla, Adrian

    2017-04-01

    Stratified flows appear in a wide variety of fundamental problems in hydrological and geophysical sciences. They may involve from hyperconcentrated floods carrying sediment causing collapse, landslides and debris flows, to suspended material in turbidity currents where turbulence is a key process. Also, in stratified flows variable horizontal density is present. Depending on the case, density varies according to the volumetric concentration of different components or species that can represent transported or suspended materials or soluble substances. Multilayer approaches based on the shallow water equations provide suitable models but are not free from difficulties when moving to the numerical resolution of the governing equations. Considering the variety of temporal and spatial scales, transfer of mass and energy among layers may strongly differ from one case to another. As a consequence, in order to provide accurate solutions, very high order methods of proved quality are demanded. Under these complex scenarios it is necessary to observe that the numerical solution provides the expected order of accuracy but also converges to the physically based solution, which is not an easy task. To this purpose, this work will focus in the use of Energy balanced augmented solvers, in particular, the Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. References: J. Murillo , P. García-Navarro, Wave Riemann description of friction terms in unsteady shallow flows: Application to water and mud/debris floods. J. Comput. Phys. 231 (2012) 1963-2001. J. Murillo B. Latorre, P. García-Navarro. A Riemann solver for unsteady computation of 2D shallow flows with variable density. J. Comput. Phys.231 (2012) 4775-4807. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Energy balanced numerical schemes with very high order. The Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. Application to the shallow water equations, J. Comput. Phys. 290 (2015) 188-218. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Asymptotically and exactly energy balanced augmented flux

  14. Dispersion of conservative properties for SGD effects by numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, G.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.

    2013-05-01

    The submarine groundwater discharges around de coasts of theYucatán Peninsula are very common because of its karstic nature. These discharges of fresh water into the sea can change the thermohaline conditions of the region. There are several studies that demonstrate that point submarine groundwater discharges can change the superficial temperature and haline conditions near the point-SGD. Furthermore, there is evidence that considerable concentrations of nutrients are transported to the sea via SGDs. In order to quantify the area of influence of a point-SGD and the ability of the coastal system to dissipate the ground water, this study presents a numerical simulation of a point-SGD on the north coast of Yucatán, Dzilam Bravo. Teh flow recorded for this SGD is ~1m^3/s and it is located 200m offshore in waters of less than 2m detph.. The numerical simulation was carried out in the model DELFT-3D which has been calibrated with water level and hydrodynamics data for the region with a grid of 486 x 243 nodes that cover an area of 6 km alongshore by 2 km crosshore with a resolution of 14 m. Three ideal numerical scenarios were simulated: only wind forcing, only tidal forcing and wind-tide forcing. The real cases are for two different wind conditions, the first is a southeast wind, and the second is a breeze with an easterly component; the dominant winds in the region are easterly. Seasonal variation was also simulated; the two conditions that exist in the region are the rainy and dry seasons. The extreme events of ENSO and northerly storms locally known as "nortes" were also simulated. The results of the ideal set of scenarios shows wind as the principal forcing for dispersion and it governs the direction of the salinity gradient. The seasonal variations show that the area of influence in terms of salinity is also a function of the contrast between fresh and sea water, and finally the set of extreme condition simulations shows, in case of the northerly storms, that the

  15. Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Paladin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model's open boundaries.The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008.The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model.Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles, the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil,sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008,when the ship `Und Adriyatik' caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia en route from Istanbul (Turkey to Trieste (Italy. At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the firedepartment, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours,preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s-1 with a minimum duration of 24 h

  16. Comparing Numerical Spall Simulations with a Nonlinear Spall Formation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, L.; Melosh, H. J.

    2012-12-01

    Spallation accelerates lightly shocked ejecta fragments to speeds that can exceed the escape velocity of the parent body. We present high-resolution simulations of nonlinear shock interactions in the near surface. Initial results show the acceleration of near-surface material to velocities up to 1.8 times greater than the peak particle velocity in the detached shock, while experiencing little to no shock pressure. These simulations suggest a possible nonlinear spallation mechanism to produce the high-velocity, low show pressure meteorites from other planets. Here we pre-sent the numerical simulations that test the production of spall through nonlinear shock interactions in the near sur-face, and compare the results with a model proposed by Kamegai (1986 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Report). We simulate near-surface shock interactions using the SALES_2 hydrocode and the Murnaghan equation of state. We model the shock interactions in two geometries: rectangular and spherical. In the rectangular case, we model a planar shock approaching the surface at a constant angle phi. In the spherical case, the shock originates at a point below the surface of the domain and radiates spherically from that point. The angle of the shock front with the surface is dependent on the radial distance of the surface point from the shock origin. We model the target as a solid with a nonlinear Murnaghan equation of state. This idealized equation of state supports nonlinear shocks but is tem-perature independent. We track the maximum pressure and maximum velocity attained in every cell in our simula-tions and compare them to the Hugoniot equations that describe the material conditions in front of and behind the shock. Our simulations demonstrate that nonlinear shock interactions in the near surface produce lightly shocked high-velocity material for both planar and cylindrical shocks. The spall is the result of the free surface boundary condi-tion, which forces a pressure gradient

  17. Numerical Modeling of Conjugate Heat Transfer in Fluid Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, Alok

    2004-01-01

    Fluid network modeling with conjugate heat transfer has many applications in Aerospace engineering. In modeling unsteady flow with heat transfer, it is important to know the variation of wall temperature in time and space to calculate heat transfer between solid to fluid. Since wall temperature is a function of flow, a coupled analysis of temperature of solid and fluid is necessary. In cryogenic applications, modeling of conjugate heat transfer is of great importance to correctly predict boil-off rate in propellant tanks and chill down of transfer lines. In TFAWS 2003, the present author delivered a paper to describe a general-purpose computer program, GFSSP (Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program). GFSSP calculates flow distribution in complex flow circuit for compressible/incompressible, with or without heat transfer or phase change in all real fluids or mixtures. The flow circuit constitutes of fluid nodes and branches. The mass, energy and specie conservation equations are solved at the nodes where as momentum conservation equations are solved at the branches. The proposed paper describes the extension of GFSSP to model conjugate heat transfer. The network also includes solid nodes and conductors in addition to fluid nodes and branches. The energy conservation equations for solid nodes solves to determine the temperatures of the solid nodes simultaneously with all conservation equations governing fluid flow. The numerical scheme accounts for conduction, convection and radiation heat transfer. The paper will also describe the applications of the code to predict chill down of cryogenic transfer line and boil-off rate of cryogenic propellant storage tank.

  18. Numerical modeling of underground storage system for natural gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, J.; Wang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Natural gas is an important type of base-load energy, and its supply needs to be adjusted according to different demands in different seasons. For example, since natural gas is increasingly used to replace coal for winter heating, the demand for natural gas in winter is much higher than that in other seasons. As storage systems are the essential tools for balancing seasonal supply and demand, the design and simulation of natural gas storage systems form an important research direction. In this study, a large-scale underground storage system for natural gas is simulated based on theoretical analysis and finite element modeling.It is proven that the problem of axi-symmetric Darcy porous flow of ideal gas is governed by the Boussinesq equation. In terms of the exact solution to the Boussinesq equation, the basic operating characteristics of the underground storage system is analyzed, and it is demonstrated that the propagation distance of the pore pressure is proportional to the 1/4 power of the mass flow rate and to the 1/2 power of the propagation time. This quantitative relationship can be used to guide the overall design of natural gas underground storage systems.In order to fully capture the two-way coupling between pore pressure and elastic matrix deformation, a poro-elastic finite element model for natural gas storage is developed. Based on the numerical model, the dynamic processes of gas injection, storage and extraction are simulated, and the corresponding time-dependent surface deformations are obtained. The modeling results not only provide a theoretical basis for real-time monitoring for the operating status of the underground storage system through surface deformation measurements, but also demonstrate that a year-round balance can be achieved through periodic gas injection and extraction.This work is supported by the CAS "100 talents" Program and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371090).

  19. Numerical Simulations of a Multiscale Model of Stratified Langmuir Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malecha, Ziemowit; Chini, Gregory; Julien, Keith

    2012-11-01

    Langmuir circulation (LC), a prominent form of wind and surface-wave driven shear turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer (BL), is commonly modeled using the Craik-Leibovich (CL) equations, a phase-averaged variant of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Although surface-wave filtering renders the CL equations more amenable to simulation than are the instantaneous NS equations, simulations in wide domains, hundreds of times the BL depth, currently earn the ``grand challenge'' designation. To facilitate simulations of LC in such spatially-extended domains, we have derived multiscale CL equations by exploiting the scale separation between submesoscale and BL flows in the upper ocean. The numerical algorithm for simulating this multiscale model resembles super-parameterization schemes used in meteorology, but retains a firm mathematical basis. We have validated our algorithm and here use it to perform multiscale simulations of the interaction between LC and upper ocean density stratification. ZMM, GPC, KJ gratefully acknowledge funding from NSF CMG Award 0934827.

  20. Global numerical modeling of magnetized plasma in a linear device

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, Michael Løiten

    Understanding the turbulent transport in the plasma-edge in fusion devices is of utmost importance in order to make precise predictions for future fusion devices. The plasma turbulence observed in linear devices shares many important features with the turbulence observed in the edge of fusion dev...... with simulations performed at different ionization levels, using a simple model for plasma interaction with neutrals. It is found that the steady state and the saturated state of the system bifurcates when the neutral interaction dominates the electron-ion collisions.......Understanding the turbulent transport in the plasma-edge in fusion devices is of utmost importance in order to make precise predictions for future fusion devices. The plasma turbulence observed in linear devices shares many important features with the turbulence observed in the edge of fusion...... devices, and are easier to diagnose due to lower temperatures and a better access to the plasma. In order to gain greater insight into this complex turbulent behavior, numerical simulations of plasma in a linear device are performed in this thesis. Here, a three-dimensional drift-fluid model is derived...

  1. Numerical modeling of thermal conductive heating in fractured bedrock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baston, Daniel P; Falta, Ronald W; Kueper, Bernard H

    2010-01-01

    Numerical modeling was employed to study the performance of thermal conductive heating (TCH) in fractured shale under a variety of hydrogeological conditions. Model results show that groundwater flow in fractures does not significantly affect the minimum treatment zone temperature, except near the beginning of heating or when groundwater influx is high. However, fracture and rock matrix properties can significantly influence the time necessary to remove all liquid water (i.e., reach superheated steam conditions) in the treatment area. Low matrix permeability, high matrix porosity, and wide fracture spacing can contribute to boiling point elevation in the rock matrix. Consequently, knowledge of these properties is important for the estimation of treatment times. Because of the variability in boiling point throughout a fractured rock treatment zone and the absence of a well-defined constant temperature boiling plateau in the rock matrix, it may be difficult to monitor the progress of thermal treatment using temperature measurements alone. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  2. A numerical model for meltwater channel evolution in glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Jarosch

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Meltwater channels form an integral part of the hydrological system of a glacier. Better understanding of how meltwater channels develop and evolve is required to fully comprehend supraglacial and englacial meltwater drainage. Incision of supraglacial stream channels and subsequent roof closure by ice deformation has been proposed in recent literature as a possible englacial conduit formation process. Field evidence for supraglacial stream incision has been found in Svalbard and Nepal. In Iceland, where volcanic activity provides meltwater with temperatures above 0 °C, rapid enlargement of supraglacial channels has been observed. Supraglacial channels provide meltwater through englacial passages to the subglacial hydrological systems of big ice sheets, which in turn affects ice sheet motion and their contribution to eustatic sea level change. By coupling, for the first time, a numerical ice dynamic model to a hydraulic model which includes heat transfer, we investigate the evolution of meltwater channels and their incision behaviour. We present results for different, constant meltwater fluxes, different channel slopes, different meltwater temperatures, different melt rate distributions in the channel as well as temporal variations in meltwater flux. The key parameters governing incision rate and depth are channel slope, meltwater temperature loss to the ice and meltwater flux. Channel width and geometry are controlled by melt rate distribution along the channel wall. Calculated Nusselt numbers suggest that turbulent mixing is the main heat transfer mechanism in the meltwater channels studied.

  3. Numerical modeling of accelerated, pre-compressed CTs in RACE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddleman, J.L.; Hammer, J.H.; Hartman, C.W.; Logan, B.G.; McLean, H.S.; Molvik, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Numerical modeling of accelerated compact toroids in the RACE experiment has motivated the development and application of a wide range of computational tools. These tools have included the zero-dimensional RAC code for fast parameter and design studies, and the two-dimensional, Eulerian, axisymmetric, magneto-hydrodynamic code, HAM, used to model plasma ring formation in magnetized plasma guns and acceleration in straight cylindrical electrodes. Extension of the RACE geometry to include converging conical electrodes motivated the development of a new two-dimensional, Lagrangian, axisymmetric, magnetohydrodynamic code, TRAC. The code includes optional initialization of the ring magnetic fields to a Taylor-equilibrium profile as well as self-consistent external capacitor bank driving circuit. Stability of initial field configurations with toroidal mode number > 0 may also be determined. The new code is particularly suited for predicting the behavior of accelerated plasma rings in arbitrarily shaped conical electrodes, since the restriction to a rectilinear mesh is removed. In particular, application of the code to the new pre-compression geometry in the RACE experiment is discussed and compared with experimental results

  4. Evaluation of deconvolution modelling applied to numerical combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehl, Cédric; Idier, Jérôme; Fiorina, Benoît

    2018-01-01

    A possible modelling approach in the large eddy simulation (LES) of reactive flows is to deconvolve resolved scalars. Indeed, by inverting the LES filter, scalars such as mass fractions are reconstructed. This information can be used to close budget terms of filtered species balance equations, such as the filtered reaction rate. Being ill-posed in the mathematical sense, the problem is very sensitive to any numerical perturbation. The objective of the present study is to assess the ability of this kind of methodology to capture the chemical structure of premixed flames. For that purpose, three deconvolution methods are tested on a one-dimensional filtered laminar premixed flame configuration: the approximate deconvolution method based on Van Cittert iterative deconvolution, a Taylor decomposition-based method, and the regularised deconvolution method based on the minimisation of a quadratic criterion. These methods are then extended to the reconstruction of subgrid scale profiles. Two methodologies are proposed: the first one relies on subgrid scale interpolation of deconvolved profiles and the second uses parametric functions to describe small scales. Conducted tests analyse the ability of the method to capture the chemical filtered flame structure and front propagation speed. Results show that the deconvolution model should include information about small scales in order to regularise the filter inversion. a priori and a posteriori tests showed that the filtered flame propagation speed and structure cannot be captured if the filter size is too large.

  5. Numerically modelling the large scale coronal magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panja, Mayukh; Nandi, Dibyendu

    2016-07-01

    The solar corona spews out vast amounts of magnetized plasma into the heliosphere which has a direct impact on the Earth's magnetosphere. Thus it is important that we develop an understanding of the dynamics of the solar corona. With our present technology it has not been possible to generate 3D magnetic maps of the solar corona; this warrants the use of numerical simulations to study the coronal magnetic field. A very popular method of doing this, is to extrapolate the photospheric magnetic field using NLFF or PFSS codes. However the extrapolations at different time intervals are completely independent of each other and do not capture the temporal evolution of magnetic fields. On the other hand full MHD simulations of the global coronal field, apart from being computationally very expensive would be physically less transparent, owing to the large number of free parameters that are typically used in such codes. This brings us to the Magneto-frictional model which is relatively simpler and computationally more economic. We have developed a Magnetofrictional Model, in 3D spherical polar co-ordinates to study the large scale global coronal field. Here we present studies of changing connectivities between active regions, in response to photospheric motions.

  6. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Biswas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

  7. Strategy for a numerical Rock Mechanics Site Descriptive Model. Further development of the theoretical/numerical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olofsson, Isabelle; Fredriksson, Anders

    2005-05-01

    The Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company (SKB) is conducting Preliminary Site Investigations at two different locations in Sweden in order to study the possibility of a Deep Repository for spent fuel. In the frame of these Site Investigations, Site Descriptive Models are achieved. These products are the result of an interaction of several disciplines such as geology, hydrogeology, and meteorology. The Rock Mechanics Site Descriptive Model constitutes one of these models. Before the start of the Site Investigations a numerical method using Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models and the 2D numerical software UDEC was developed. Numerical simulations were the tool chosen for applying the theoretical approach for characterising the mechanical rock mass properties. Some shortcomings were identified when developing the methodology. Their impacts on the modelling (in term of time and quality assurance of results) were estimated to be so important that the improvement of the methodology with another numerical tool was investigated. The theoretical approach is still based on DFN models but the numerical software used is 3DEC. The main assets of the programme compared to UDEC are an optimised algorithm for the generation of fractures in the model and for the assignment of mechanical fracture properties. Due to some numerical constraints the test conditions were set-up in order to simulate 2D plane strain tests. Numerical simulations were conducted on the same data set as used previously for the UDEC modelling in order to estimate and validate the results from the new methodology. A real 3D simulation was also conducted in order to assess the effect of the '2D' conditions in the 3DEC model. Based on the quality of the results it was decided to update the theoretical model and introduce the new methodology based on DFN models and 3DEC simulations for the establishment of the Rock Mechanics Site Descriptive Model. By separating the spatial variability into two parts, one

  8. Wind field near complex terrain using numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chim, Kin-Sang

    The PennState/NCAR MM5 model was modified to simulate an idealized flow pass through a 3D obstacle in the Micro- Alpha Scale domain. The obstacle used were the idealized Gaussian obstacle and the real topography of Lantau Island of Hong Kong. The Froude number under study is ranged from 0.22 to 1.5. Regime diagrams for both the idealized Gaussian obstacle and Lantau island were constructed. This work is divided into five parts. The first part is the problem definition and the literature review of the related publications. The second part briefly discuss as the PennState/NCAR MM5 model and a case study of long- range transport is included. The third part is devoted to the modification and the verification of the PennState/NCAR MM5 model on the Micro-Alpha Scale domain. The implementation of the Orlanski (1976) open boundary condition is included with the method of single sounding initialization of the model. Moreover, an upper dissipative layer, Klemp and Lilly (1978), is implemented on the model. The simulated result is verified by the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data and the Wind Profiler data. Four different types of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes have been investigated in order to find out the most suitable one for Micro-Alpha Scale domain in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Bulk Aerodynamic type of PBL parameterization scheme is found to be the most suitable PBL parameterization scheme. Investigation of the free- slip lower boundary condition is performed and the simulated result is compared with that with friction. The fourth part is the use of the modified PennState/NCAR MM5 model for an idealized flow simulation. The idealized uniform flow used is nonhydrostatic and has constant Froude number. Sensitivity test is performed by varying the Froude number and the regime diagram is constructed. Moreover, nondimensional drag is found to be useful for regime identification. The model result is also compared with the analytic

  9. Development and internal validation of a prognostic model to predict recurrence free survival in patients with adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Meurs, Hannah S.; Schuit, Ewoud; Horlings, Hugo M.; van der Velden, Jacobus; van Driel, Willemien J.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Kenter, Gemma G.; Buist, Marrije R.

    2014-01-01

    Models to predict the probability of recurrence free survival exist for various types of malignancies, but a model for recurrence free survival in individuals with an adult granulosa cell tumor (GCT) of the ovary is lacking. We aimed to develop and internally validate such a prognostic model. We

  10. Numerical Modeling of the 2014 Oso, Washington, Landslide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, D. L.; Iverson, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Numerical simulations of alternative scenarios that could have transpired during the Oso, Washington, landslide of 22 March 2014 provide insight into factors responsible for the landslide's devastating high-speed runout.We performed these simulations using D-Claw, a numerical model we recently developed to simulate landslide and debris-flow motion from initiation to deposition. D-Claw solves a hyperbolic system of five partial differential equations that describe simultaneous evolution of the thickness,solid volume fraction, basal pore-fluid pressure, and two components of momentum of the moving mass. D-Claw embodies the concept ofstate-dependent dilatancy, which causes the solid volume fraction m to evolve toward a value that is equilibrated to the ambient stress state andshear rate. As the value of m evolves, basal pore-fluid pressure coevolves,and thereby causes an evolution in frictional resistance to motion. Our Oso simulations considered alternative scenarios in which values of all model parameters except the initial solid volume fraction m0 were held constant.These values were: basal friction angle = 36°; static critical-state solidvolume fraction = 0.64; initial sediment permeability = 10-8 m2; pore-fluid density = 1100 kg/m3; sediment grain density = 2700 kg/m3; pore-fluid viscosity = 0.005 Pa-s; and dimensionless sediment compressibility coefficient = 0.03. Simulations performed using these values and m0 = 0.62 produced widespread landslide liquefaction, runaway acceleration, andlandslide runout distances, patterns and speeds similar to those observed or inferred for the devastating Oso event. Alternative simulations that usedm0 = 0.64 produced a much slower landslide that did not liquefy and that traveled only about 100 m before stopping. This relatively benign behavioris similar to that of several landslides at the Oso site prior to 2014. Our findings illustrate a behavioral bifurcation that is highly sensitive to the initial solid volume fraction

  11. Numerical modeling of the Indo-Australian intraplate deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandon, Vincent; Royer, Jean-Yves

    2014-05-01

    The Indo-Australian plate is perhaps the best example of wide intraplate deformation within an oceanic plate. The deformation is expressed by an unusual level of intraplate seismicity, including magnitude Mw > 8 events, large-scale folding and deep faulting of the oceanic lithosphere and reactivation of extinct fracture zones. The deformation pattern and kinematic data inversions suggest that the Indo-Australian plate can be viewed as a composite plate made of three rigid component plates - India, Capricorn, Australia - separated by wide and diffuse boundaries undergoing either extensional or compressional deformation. We tested this model using the SHELLS numerical code (Kong & Bird, 1995). The Indo-Australian plate is modeled by a mesh of 5281 spherical triangular finite elements. Mesh edges parallel the major extinct fracture zones so that they can be reactivated by reducing their friction rates. Strength of the plate is defined by the age of the lithosphere and seafloor topography. Model boundary conditions are only defined by the plate velocities predicted by the rotation vectors between rigid components of the Indo-Australian plate and their neighboring plates. Since the mesh limits all belong to rigid plates with fully defined Euler vectors, no conditions are imposed on the location, extent and limits of the diffuse and deforming zones. Using MORVEL plate velocities (DeMets et al., 2010), predicted deformation patterns are very consistent with that observed. Pre-existing structures of the lithosphere play an important role in the intraplate deformation and its distribution. The Chagos Bank focuses most of the extensional deformation between the Indian and Capricorn plates. Agreement between models and observation improves by weakening fossil fracture zones relative to the surrounding crust; however only limited sections of FZ's accommodate deformation. The reactivation of the Eocene FZ's in the Central Indian Basin (CIB) and Wharton Basin (WB) explains the

  12. Numerical modelling of volatiles in the deep mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichheimer, Philipp; Thielmann, Marcel; Golabek, Gregor J.

    2017-04-01

    The transport and storage of water in the mantle significantly affects several material properties of mantle rocks and thus water plays a key role in a variety of geodynamical processes (tectonics, magmatism etc.). The processes driving transport and circulation of H2O in subduction zones remain a debated topic. Geological and seismological observations suggest different inflow mechanisms of water e.g. slab bending, thermal cracking and serpentinization (Faccenda et al., 2009; Korenaga, 2017), followed by dehydration of the slab. On Earth both shallow and steep subduction can be observed (Li et al., 2011). However most previous models (van Keken et al., 2008; Wilson et al., 2014) did not take different dip angles and subduction velocities of slabs into account. To which extent these parameters and processes influence the inflow of water still remains unclear. We present 2D numerical models simulating the influence of the various water inflow mechanisms on the mantle with changing dip angle and subduction velocity of the slab over time. The results are used to make predictions regarding the rheological behavior of the mantle wedge, dehydration regimes and volcanism at the surface. References: van Keken, P. E., et al. A community benchmark for subduction zone modeling. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 171, 187-197 (2008). Faccenda, M., T.V. Gerya, and L. Burlini. Deep slab hydration induced by bending-related variations in tectonic pressure. Nat. Geosci. 2, 790-793 (2009). Korenaga, J. On the extent of mantle hydration caused by plate bending. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 457, 1-9 (2017). Wilson, C. R., et al. Fluid flow in subduction zones: The role of solid rheology and compaction pressure. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 401, 261-274 (2014). Li, Z. H., Z. Q. Xu, and T. V. Gerya. Flat versus steep subduction: Contrasting modes for the formation and exhumation of high- to ultrahigh-pressure rocks in continental collision zones. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 301, 65-77 (2011).

  13. Ambient vibrations of unstable rock slopes - insights from numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burjanek, Jan; Kleinbrod, Ulrike; Fäh, Donat

    2017-04-01

    The recent events in Nepal (2015 M7.8 Gorkha) and New Zealand (2016 M7.8 Kaikoura) highlighted the importance of earthquake-induced landslides, which caused significant damages. Moreover, landslide created dams present a potential developing hazard. In order to reduce the costly consequences of such events it is important to detect and characterize earthquake susceptible rock slope instabilities before an event, and to take mitigation measures. For the characterisation of instable slopes, acquisition of ambient vibrations might be a new alternative to the already existing methods. We present both observations and 3D numerical simulations of the ambient vibrations of unstable slopes. In particular, models of representative real sites have been developed based on detailed terrain mapping and used for the comparison between synthetics and observations. A finite-difference code has been adopted for the seismic wave propagation in a 3D inhomogeneous visco-elastic media with irregular free surface. It utilizes a curvilinear grid for a precise modeling of curved topography and local mesh refinement to make computational mesh finer near the free surface. Topographic site effects, controlled merely by the shape of the topography, do not explain the observed seismic response. In contrast, steeply-dipping compliant fractures have been found to play a key role in fitting observations. Notably, the synthetized response is controlled by inertial mass of the unstable rock, and by stiffness, depth and network density of the fractures. The developed models fit observed extreme amplification levels (factors of 70!) and show directionality as well. This represents a possibility to characterize slope structure and infer depth or volume of the slope instability from the ambient noise recordings in the future.

  14. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  15. Numerical Modeling of Large-Scale Rocky Coastline Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limber, P.; Murray, A. B.; Littlewood, R.; Valvo, L.

    2008-12-01

    Seventy-five percent of the world's ocean coastline is rocky. On large scales (i.e. greater than a kilometer), many intertwined processes drive rocky coastline evolution, including coastal erosion and sediment transport, tectonics, antecedent topography, and variations in sea cliff lithology. In areas such as California, an additional aspect of rocky coastline evolution involves submarine canyons that cut across the continental shelf and extend into the nearshore zone. These types of canyons intercept alongshore sediment transport and flush sand to abyssal depths during periodic turbidity currents, thereby delineating coastal sediment transport pathways and affecting shoreline evolution over large spatial and time scales. How tectonic, sediment transport, and canyon processes interact with inherited topographic and lithologic settings to shape rocky coastlines remains an unanswered, and largely unexplored, question. We will present numerical model results of rocky coastline evolution that starts with an immature fractal coastline. The initial shape is modified by headland erosion, wave-driven alongshore sediment transport, and submarine canyon placement. Our previous model results have shown that, as expected, an initial sediment-free irregularly shaped rocky coastline with homogeneous lithology will undergo smoothing in response to wave attack; headlands erode and mobile sediment is swept into bays, forming isolated pocket beaches. As this diffusive process continues, pocket beaches coalesce, and a continuous sediment transport pathway results. However, when a randomly placed submarine canyon is introduced to the system as a sediment sink, the end results are wholly different: sediment cover is reduced, which in turn increases weathering and erosion rates and causes the entire shoreline to move landward more rapidly. The canyon's alongshore position also affects coastline morphology. When placed offshore of a headland, the submarine canyon captures local sediment

  16. A clinical-molecular prognostic model to predict survival in patients with post polycythemia vera and post essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passamonti, F; Giorgino, T; Mora, B; Guglielmelli, P; Rumi, E; Maffioli, M; Rambaldi, A; Caramella, M; Komrokji, R; Gotlib, J; Kiladjian, J J; Cervantes, F; Devos, T; Palandri, F; De Stefano, V; Ruggeri, M; Silver, R T; Benevolo, G; Albano, F; Caramazza, D; Merli, M; Pietra, D; Casalone, R; Rotunno, G; Barbui, T; Cazzola, M; Vannucchi, A M

    2017-12-01

    Polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) are myeloproliferative neoplasms with variable risk of evolution into post-PV and post-ET myelofibrosis, from now on referred to as secondary myelofibrosis (SMF). No specific tools have been defined for risk stratification in SMF. To develop a prognostic model for predicting survival, we studied 685 JAK2, CALR, and MPL annotated patients with SMF. Median survival of the whole cohort was 9.3 years (95% CI: 8-not reached-NR-). Through penalized Cox regressions we identified negative predictors of survival and according to beta risk coefficients we assigned 2 points to hemoglobin level <11 g/dl, to circulating blasts ⩾3%, and to CALR-unmutated genotype, 1 point to platelet count <150 × 10 9 /l and to constitutional symptoms, and 0.15 points to any year of age. Myelofibrosis Secondary to PV and ET-Prognostic Model (MYSEC-PM) allocated SMF patients into four risk categories with different survival (P<0.0001): low (median survival NR; 133 patients), intermediate-1 (9.3 years, 95% CI: 8.1-NR; 245 patients), intermediate-2 (4.4 years, 95% CI: 3.2-7.9; 126 patients), and high risk (2 years, 95% CI: 1.7-3.9; 75 patients). Finally, we found that the MYSEC-PM represents the most appropriate tool for SMF decision-making to be used in clinical and trial settings.

  17. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  18. Numerical Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbines and their Environmental Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaherchi, T.; Seydel, J.; Aliseda, A.

    2010-12-01

    The search for predictable renewable energy has led research into marine hydrokinetic energy. Electricity can be generated from tidally-induced currents through turbines located in regions of high current speed and relatively low secondary flow intensity. Although significant technological challenges exist, the main obstacle in the development and commercial deployment of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is the uncertainty in the environmental effect of devices. The velocity deficit in the turbulent wake of the turbine might enhance the sedimentation process of suspended particles in the water column and lead to deposition into artificial patterns that alter the benthic ecosystem. Pressure fluctuations across turbine blades and in blade tip vortices can damage internal organs of marine species as they swim through the device. These are just a few examples of the important potential environmental effects of MHK turbines that need to be addressed and investigated a priori before pilot and large scale deployment. We have developed a hierarchy of numerical models to simulate the turbulent wake behind a well characterized two bladed turbine. The results from these models (Sliding Mesh, Rotating Reference Frame, Virtual Blade Model and Actuator Disk Model) have been validated and are been used to investigate the efficiency and physical changes introduced in the environment by single or multiple MHK turbines. We will present results from sedimenting particles and model juvenile fish, with relative densities of 1.2 and 0.95, respectively. The settling velocity and terminal location on the bottom of the tidal channel is computed and compared to the simulated flow in a channel without turbines. We have observed an enhanced sedimentation, and we will quantify the degree of enhancement and the parameter range within which it is significant. For the slightly buoyant particles representing fish, the pressure history is studied statistically with particular attention to the

  19. Performance and customization of 4 prognostic models for postoperative onset of nausea and vomiting in ear, nose, and throat surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Jörg M; Junger, Axel; Hartmann, Bernd; Little, Simon; Schnöbel, Rose; Mann, Valesco; Jost, Andreas; Welters, Ingeborg D; Hempelmann, Gunter

    2006-06-01

    To evaluate the performance of 4 published prognostic models for postoperative onset of nausea and vomiting (PONV) by means of discrimination and calibration and the possible impact of customization on these models. Prospective, observational study. Tertiary care university hospital. 748 adult patients (>18 years old) enrolled in this study. Severe obesity (weight > 150 kg or body mass index > 40 kg/m) was an exclusion criterion. All perioperative data were recorded with an anesthesia information management system. A standardized patient interview was performed on the postoperative morning and afternoon. Individual PONV risk was calculated using 4 original regression equations by Koivuranta et al, Apfel et al, Sinclair et al, and Junger et al Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration was tested using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics. New predictive equations for the 4 models were derived by means of logistic regression (customization). The prognostic performance of the customized models was validated using the "leaving-one-out" technique. Postoperative onset of nausea and vomiting was observed in 11.2% of the specialized patient population. Discrimination could be demonstrated as shown by areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.62 for the Koivuranta et al model, 0.63 for the Apfel et al model, 0.70 for the Sinclair et al model, and 0.70 for the Junger et al model. Calibration was poor for all 4 original models, indicated by a P value lower than 0.01 in the C and H statistics. Customization improved the accuracy of the prediction for all 4 models. However, the simplified risk scores of the Koivuranta et al model and the Apfel et al model did not show the same efficiency as those of the Sinclair et al model and the Junger et al model. This is possibly a result of having relatively few patients at high risk for PONV in combination with an information loss caused by too few dichotomous

  20. Miniaturized inertial impactor for personal airborne particulate monitoring: Numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortelezzi, Luca; Pasini, Silvia; Bianchi, Elena; Dubini, Gabriele

    2017-11-01

    The rising level of fine particle matter's (PM10, PM2.5 and PM1) pollution in the world has increased the interest in developing portable personal air-qualitity monitoring systems. To answer this need, we conceived a miniaturized inertial impactor. The development of such an impactor becomes more challenging as the diameter of the particles to be collected becomes smaller, since the velocities required to induce the impact of finer particulate matter become higher. To overcome these challenges, we modeled numerically the fluid dynamics and particles transport within the impactor. Our simulations show that the fluid flow within the impactor becomes unstable as the Reynolds number is increased to capture finer particles. Furthermore, the onset of these instabilities depends not only on the Reynolds number but also on the geometry of the impactor. The unsteady flow within the impactor influences the trajectories of the particles to be collected, especially the smaller particles. The particles trajectories shows that the impaction location varies substantially as the Reynolds number increases and, consequently, the efficiency of the impactor deteriorates. Finally, we optimize the design of our impactor to maximize its collection efficiency. CARIPLO Fundation - project MINUTE (Grant No. 2011-2118).

  1. Two-dimensional numerical modeling of the cosmic ray storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadokura, A.; Nishida, A.

    1986-01-01

    A numerical model of the cosmic ray storm in the two-dimensional heliosphere is constructed incorporating the drift effect. We estimate the effect of a flare-associated interplanetary shock and the disturbed region behind it (characterized by enhancement in velocity and magnetic field, and decrease in mean free path) on the density and anisotropy of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. As the disturbance propagates outward, a density enhancement appears on the front side, and a density depression region is produced on the rear side. The effect of drift on the cosmic ray storm appears most clearly in the higher-latitude region. For the parallel (antiparallel) state of the solar magnetic field which corresponds to the pre(post-) 1980 period, the density in the higher-latitude region decreases (increases) before the shock arrival. The maximum density depression near the earth for the parallel state is greater than for the antiparallel state, and the energy spectrum of the density depression in percentage is softer for the parallel state than for the antiparallel state. Prior to the arrival of the shock, the phase of solar diurnal anisotropy begins to shift to the earlier hours, and its amplitude becomes greater for both polarity states. North-south anisotropy also becomes greater because of the enhanced drift for both polarity states

  2. Numerical modeling of NI-monitored 3D infiltration experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohnal, Michal; Dusek, Jaromir; Snehota, Michal; Sacha, Jan; Vogel, Tomas; Votrubova, Jana

    2014-05-01

    It is well known that the temporal changes of saturated hydraulic conductivity caused by the occurrence of air phase discontinuities often play an important role in water flow and solute transport experiments. In the present study, a series of infiltration-outflow experiments was conducted to test several working hypotheses about the mechanism of air phase trapping. The experiments were performed on a porous sample with artificial internal structure, using three sandy materials with contrasting hydraulic properties. The sample was axially symmetric with continuous preferential pathways and separate porous matrix blocks (the sample was 3.4 cm in diameter and 8.8 cm high). The infiltration experiments were monitored by neutron imaging (NI). The NI data were then used to quantify the water content of the selected sample regions. The flow regime in the sample was studied using a three-dimensional model based on Richards' equation. The equation was solved by the finite element method. The results of the numerical simulations of the infiltration experiments were compared with the measured outflow rates and with the spatial distribution of water content determined by NI. The research was supported by the Czech Science Foundation Project No. 14-03691S.

  3. [New approaches in pharmacology: numerical modelling and simulation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissel, Jean-Pierre; Cucherat, Michel; Nony, Patrice; Dronne, Marie-Aimée; Kassaï, Behrouz; Chabaud, Sylvie

    2005-01-01

    The complexity of pathophysiological mechanisms is beyond the capabilities of traditional approaches. Many of the decision-making problems in public health, such as initiating mass screening, are complex. Progress in genomics and proteomics, and the resulting extraordinary increase in knowledge with regard to interactions between gene expression, the environment and behaviour, the customisation of risk factors and the need to combine therapies that individually have minimal though well documented efficacy, has led doctors to raise new questions: how to optimise choice and the application of therapeutic strategies at the individual rather than the group level, while taking into account all the available evidence? This is essentially a problem of complexity with dimensions similar to the previous ones: multiple parameters with nonlinear relationships between them, varying time scales that cannot be ignored etc. Numerical modelling and simulation (in silico investigations) have the potential to meet these challenges. Such approaches are considered in drug innovation and development. They require a multidisciplinary approach, and this will involve modification of the way research in pharmacology is conducted.

  4. Numerical modelling of GPR electromagnetic fields for locating burial sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carcione José M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ground-penetrating radar (GPR is commonly used for locating burial sites. In this article, we acquired radargrams at a site where a domestic pig cadaver was buried. The measurements were conducted with the ProEx System GPR manufactured by the Swedish company Mala Geoscience with an antenna of 500MHz. The event corresponding to the pig can be clearly seen in the measurements. In order to improve the interpretation, the electromagnetic field is compared to numerical simulations computed with the pseudo-spectral Fourier method. A geological model has been defined on the basis of assumed electromagnetic properties (permittivity, conductivity and magnetic permeability. The results, when compared with the GPR measurements, show a dissimilar amplitude behaviour, with a stronger reflection event from the bottom of the pit. We have therefore performed another simulation by decreasing the electrical conductivity of the body very close to that of air. The comparison improved, showing more reflections, which could be an indication that the body contains air or has been degraded to a certain extent that the electrical resistivity has greatly increased.

  5. Contribution to the numerical modeling of inertial confinement fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maire, P.H.

    2011-02-01

    This work was realized by writing the CHIC code, which is a software for designing and restoring experience in the field of inertial confinement fusion. The theoretical model describing the implosion of a laser target is a system of partial differential equations in the center of which is the Euler equations written in Lagrangian formalism, coupled with diffusion equations modeling the nonlinear transport of energy by electrons and photons. After a brief review of the physical context, we describe two novel methods which constitute the backbone of the CHIC code. These are 2 high-order finite volume schemes respectively dedicated to solving the equations of Lagrangian hydrodynamics and the anisotropic diffusion equations on bi-dimensional unstructured grids. The first scheme, called EUCCLHYD (Explicit Unstructured Lagrangian Hydrodynamics), solves the equations of gas dynamics on a moving mesh that moves at the speed of light. It is obtained from a general formalism based on the concept of sub-cell forces. In this context, the numerical fluxes are expressed in terms of the sub-cell force and the nodal velocity. Their determination is based on 3 basic principles: geometric compatibility between the movement of nodes and the volume change of mesh (geometric conservation law), compatibility with the second law of thermodynamics and conservation of total energy and momentum. The high-order extension is performed using a method based on solving a generalized Riemann problem in the acoustic approximation. The second scheme, called CCLAD (Cell-Centered Lagrangian Diffusion), solves the anisotropic heat equation. The corresponding discretization relies on a discrete variational formulation based on the sub-cell that allows to build a multipoint approximation of heat flux. This high-order discretization makes possible the resolution of the equations of anisotropic diffusion with satisfactory accuracy on highly distorted Lagrangian meshes. (author)

  6. Numerical modelling of pulsation and convection in cepheids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundprecht, E.

    2011-01-01

    In order to simulate the pulsation convection coupling in a Cepheid the ANTARES-code was equipped with a polar and moving grid. The numerical cost of a fully parallelized, sufficiently large, and fully resolved section would be immense. Thus it was not only necessary to find a suitable model, but also save to costs for parallelisation and grid refinement. The equations governing the hydrodynamics were derived for this particular grid and implemented in the code. The grey short characteristics method for the radiative transfer equation was also adjusted. Different methods of parallelisation for the radiative transfer were tested. Abstract Within ANTARES shocks are treated with an essentially non oscillatory (ENO) scheme with Marquina flux splitting. As this method is only valid for grids that are equidistant or uniformly stretched in all directions two differnt sets of ENO-coefficients were implemented and tested. It was found that the traditional approach is indeed no longer valid and the system is not conservative when the original set of coefficients is used. In the upper or hydrogen ionisation zone the gradient of density, temperature etc. is very steep, therefore a finer resolution with a minimum of additional time steps is needed. In order to resolve these few points a co-moving grid refinement was developed. Simulations in one and two dimensions were performed, a comparison between them helps to better understand the effects of convection on the e.c. light curve. Analysis of the fluxes and the work integral was done for the helium ionisation zone. The effects of subgrid modelling were tested on the hydrogen convection zone and compared with a resolved simulation of this zone. (author) [de

  7. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  8. Numerical Experiments Based on the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, X. Y.; Ziegler, U.; Mei, Z. X.; Wu, N.; Lin, J.

    2017-11-01

    On the basis of the catastrophe model developed by Isenberg et al., we use the NIRVANA code to perform the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical experiments to look into various behaviors of the coronal magnetic configuration that includes a current-carrying flux rope used to model the prominence levitating in the corona. These behaviors include the evolution in equilibrium heights of the flux rope versus the change in the background magnetic field, the corresponding internal equilibrium of the flux rope, dynamic properties of the flux rope after the system loses equilibrium, as well as the impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope. In our calculations, an empirical model of the coronal density distribution given by Sittler & Guhathakurta is used, and the physical diffusion is included. Our experiments show that the deviation of simulations in the equilibrium heights from the theoretical results exists, but is not apparent, and the evolutionary features of the two results are similar. If the flux rope is initially locate at the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve, the flux rope will quickly reach the equilibrium position in the simulation after several rounds of oscillations as a result of the self-adjustment of the system; and the flux rope lose the equilibrium if the initial location of the flux rope is set at the critical point on the theoretical equilibrium curve. Correspondingly, the internal equilibrium of the flux rope can be reached as well, and the deviation from the theoretical results is somewhat apparent since the approximation of the small radius of the flux rope is lifted in our experiments, but such deviation does not affect the global equilibrium in the system. The impact of the referential radius on the equilibrium heights of the flux rope is consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our calculations indicate that the motion of the flux rope after the loss of equilibrium is consistent with which

  9. 3-D Numerical Modelling of Oblique Continental Collisions with ASPECT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatun, L.; Pysklywec, R.

    2017-12-01

    Among the fundamental types of tectonic plate boundaries, continent-continent collision is least well understood. Deformation of the upper and middle crustal layers can be inferred from surface structures and geophysical imaging, but the fate of lower crustal rocks and mantle lithosphere is not well resolved. Previous research suggests that shortening of mantle lithosphere generally may be occurring by either: 1) a distributed thickening with a formation of a Raleigh-Tailor (RT) type instability (possibly accompanied with lithospheric folding); or 2) plate-like subduction, which can be one- or two-sided, with or without delamination and slab break-off; a combination of both could be taking place too. 3-D features of the orogens such as along-trench material transfer, bounding subduction zones can influence the evolution of the collision zone significantly. The current study was inspired by South Island of New Zealand - a young collision system where a block of continental crust is being shortened by the relative Australian-Pacific plate motion. The collision segment of the plate boundary is relatively small ( 800 km), and is bounded by oppositely verging subduction zones to the North and South. Here, we present results of 3-D forward numerical modelling of continental collision to investigate some of these processes. To conduct the simulations, we used ASPECT - a highly parallel community-developed code based on the Finite Element method. Model setup for three different sets of models featured 2-D vertical across strike, 3-D with periodic front and back walls, and 3-D with open front and back walls, with velocities prescribed on the left and right faces. We explored the importance of values of convergent velocity, strike-slip velocity and their ratio, which defines the resulting velocity direction relative to the plate boundary (obliquity). We found that higher strike-slip motion promotes strain localization, weakens the lithosphere close to the plate boundary and

  10. Numerical modeling of Thermal Response Tests in Energy Piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A.; Toledo, M.; Moffat, R.; Herrera, P. A.

    2013-05-01

    conductivity of the soil is the most determinant parameter that affects the estimated thermal conductivity. For example, we observed differences of up to 50% from the expected value at the end of 100 hours of simulation for values of thermal conductivity of the soil in the range of 1 to 6 W/mK. Additionally, we observed that the results of the synthetic TRT depend upon several other parameters such as the boundary conditions used to model the interaction of the top face of the pile with the surrounding media. For example, Simulations with a constant temperature boundary condition tended to overestimate the total thermal conductivity of the whole system. This analysis demonstrates that numerical modeling is a useful tool to model energy pile systems and to interpret and design tests to evaluate their performance. Furthermore, it also reveals that the results of thermal response tests interpreted with analytical models must be evaluated with care for the assessment of the potential of low enthalpy systems, because their results depend upon a variety of factors which are neglected in the analytical models.

  11. Cutaneous Lymphoma International Consortium Study of Outcome in Advanced Stages of Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: Effect of Specific Prognostic Markers on Survival and Development of a Prognostic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarisbrick, Julia J.; Prince, H. Miles; Vermeer, Maarten H.; Quaglino, Pietro; Horwitz, Steven; Porcu, Pierluigi; Stadler, Rudolf; Wood, Gary S.; Beylot-Barry, Marie; Pham-Ledard, Anne; Foss, Francine; Girardi, Michael; Bagot, Martine; Michel, Laurence; Battistella, Maxime; Guitart, Joan; Kuzel, Timothy M.; Martinez-Escala, Maria Estela; Estrach, Teresa; Papadavid, Evangelia; Antoniou, Christina; Rigopoulos, Dimitis; Nikolaou, Vassilki; Sugaya, Makoto; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Gniadecki, Robert; Sanches, José Antonio; Cury-Martins, Jade; Miyashiro, Denis; Servitje, Octavio; Muniesa, Cristina; Berti, Emilio; Onida, Francesco; Corti, Laura; Hodak, Emilia; Amitay-Laish, Iris; Ortiz-Romero, Pablo L.; Rodríguez-Peralto, Jose L.; Knobler, Robert; Porkert, Stefanie; Bauer, Wolfgang; Pimpinelli, Nicola; Grandi, Vieri; Cowan, Richard; Rook, Alain; Kim, Ellen; Pileri, Alessandro; Patrizi, Annalisa; Pujol, Ramon M.; Wong, Henry; Tyler, Kelly; Stranzenbach, Rene; Querfeld, Christiane; Fava, Paolo; Maule, Milena; Willemze, Rein; Evison, Felicity; Morris, Stephen; Twigger, Robert; Talpur, Rakhshandra; Kim, Jinah; Ognibene, Grant; Li, Shufeng; Tavallaee, Mahkam; Hoppe, Richard T.; Duvic, Madeleine; Whittaker, Sean J.; Kim, Youn H.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Advanced-stage mycosis fungoides (MF; stage IIB to IV) and Sézary syndrome (SS) are aggressive lymphomas with a median survival of 1 to 5 years. Clinical management is stage based; however, there is wide range of outcome within stages. Published prognostic studies in MF/SS have been single-center trials. Because of the rarity of MF/SS, only a large collaboration would power a study to identify independent prognostic markers. Patients and Methods Literature review identified the following 10 candidate markers: stage, age, sex, cutaneous histologic features of folliculotropism, CD30 positivity, proliferation index, large-cell transformation, WBC/lymphocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and identical T-cell clone in blood and skin. Data were collected at specialist centers on patients diagnosed with advanced-stage MF/SS from 2007. Each parameter recorded at diagnosis was tested against overall survival (OS). Results Staging data on 1,275 patients with advanced MF/SS from 29 international sites were included for survival analysis. The median OS was 63 months, with 2- and 5-year survival rates of 77% and 52%, respectively. The median OS for patients with stage IIB disease was 68 months, but patients diagnosed with stage III disease had slightly improved survival compared with patients with stage IIB, although patients diagnosed with stage IV disease had significantly worse survival (48 months for stage IVA and 33 months for stage IVB). Of the 10 variables tested, four (stage IV, age > 60 years, large-cell transformation, and increased lactate dehydrogenase) were independent prognostic markers for a worse survival. Combining these four factors in a prognostic index model identified the following three risk groups across stages with significantly different 5-year survival rates: low risk (68%), intermediate risk (44%), and high risk (28%). Conclusion To our knowledge, this study includes the largest cohort of patients with advanced-stage MF/SS and

  12. Hydrogeological conceptual model development and numerical modelling using CONNECTFLOW, Forsmark modelling stage 2.3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Hartley, Lee; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David (Serco TAP (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-05-15

    Three versions of a site descriptive model (SDM) have been completed for the Forsmark area. Version 0 established the state of knowledge prior to the start of the site investigation programme. Version 1.1 was essentially a training exercise and was completed during 2004. Version 1.2 was a preliminary site description and concluded the initial site investigation work (ISI) in June 2005. Three modelling stages are planned for the complete site investigation work (CSI). These are labelled stage 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, respectively. An important component of each of these stages is to address and continuously try to resolve discipline-specific uncertainties of importance for repository engineering and safety assessment. Stage 2.1 included an updated geological model for Forsmark and aimed to provide a feedback from the modelling working group to the site investigation team to enable completion of the site investigation work. Stage 2.2 described the conceptual understanding and the numerical modelling of the bedrock hydrogeology in the Forsmark area based on data freeze 2.2. The present report describes the modelling based on data freeze 2.3, which is the final data freeze in Forsmark. In comparison, data freeze 2.3 is considerably smaller than data freeze 2.2. Therefore, stage 2.3 deals primarily with model confirmation and uncertainty analysis, e.g. verification of important hypotheses made in stage 2.2 and the role of parameter uncertainty in the numerical modelling. On the whole, the work reported here constitutes an addendum to the work reported in stage 2.2. Two changes were made to the CONNECTFLOW code in stage 2.3. These serve to: 1) improve the representation of the hydraulic properties of the regolith, and 2) improve the conditioning of transmissivity of the deformation zones against single-hole hydraulic tests. The changes to the modelling of the regolith were made to improve the consistency with models made with the MIKE SHE code, which involved the introduction

  13. Assessing numerical methods used in nuclear aerosol transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, B.H.

    1987-01-01

    Several computer codes are in use for predicting the behaviour of nuclear aerosols released into containment during postulated accidents in water-cooled reactors. Each of these codes uses numerical methods to discretize and integrate the equations that govern the aerosol transport process. Computers perform only algebraic operations and generate only numbers. It is in the numerical methods that sense can be made of these numbers and where they can be related to the actual solution of the equations. In this report, the numerical methods most commonly used in the aerosol transport codes are examined as special cases of a general solution procedure, the Method of Weighted Residuals. It would appear that the numerical methods used in the codes are all capable of producing reasonable answers to the mathematical problem when used with skill and care. 27 refs

  14. NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE SOIL BEHAVIOUR BY USING NEWLY DEVELOPED ADVANCED MATERIAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Veselý

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a theoretical background, implementation and validation of the newly developed Jardine plastic hardening-softening model (JPHS model, which can be used for numerical modelling of the soils behaviour. Although the JPHS model is based on the elasto-plastic theory, like the Mohr-Coulomb model that is widely used in geotechnics, it contains some improvements, which removes the main disadvantages of the MC model. The presented model is coupled with an isotopically hardening and softening law, non-linear elastic stress-strain law, non-associated elasto-plastic material description and a cap yield surface. The validation of the model is done by comparing the numerical results with real measured data from the laboratory tests and by testing of the model on the real project of the tunnel excavation. The 3D numerical analysis is performed and the comparison between the JPHS, Mohr-Coulomb, Modified Cam-Clay, Hardening small strain model and monitoring in-situ data is done.

  15. Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

    2018-04-01

    On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

  16. Creating safer coastal and port infrastructure with innovative physical and numerical modelling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tulsi, K

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure with Innovative Physical and Numerical Modelling Kishan Tulsi  Physical and Numerical modelling  Breakwater Monitoring  Armour track  Vessel manoeuvring simulations for safe port design and operations  Simflex software... – Integrated Port Operations Support System  Virtual Buoy Physical modelling Numerical modelling Armour Track Armour Track Armour Track Armour Track Armour track using 3D data points Ship manoeuvring simulations: Ship Manoeuvring simulations Port...

  17. A prognostic model for temporal courses that combines temporal abstraction and case-based reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Rainer; Gierl, Lothar

    2005-03-01

    Since clinical management of patients and clinical research are essentially time-oriented endeavours, reasoning about time has become a hot topic in medical informatics. Here we present a method for prognosis of temporal courses, which combines temporal abstractions with case-based reasoning. It is useful for application domains where neither well-known standards, nor known periodicity, nor a complete domain theory exist. We have used our method in two prognostic applications. The first one deals with prognosis of the kidney function for intensive care patients. The idea is to elicit impairments on time, especially to warn against threatening kidney failures. Our second application deals with a completely different domain, namely geographical medicine. Its intention is to compute early warnings against approaching infectious diseases, which are characterised by irregular cyclic occurrences. So far, we have applied our program on influenza and bronchitis. In this paper, we focus on influenza forecast and show first experimental results.

  18. Short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center: A real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Walter A.; Schuh, Jerome A.; Moon, Dennis; Pielke, Roger A.; Cotton, William; Arritt, Raymond

    1987-01-01

    The operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.

  19. A probabilistic physics-of-failure model for prognostic health management of structures subject to pitting and corrosion-fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chookah, M.; Nuhi, M.; Modarres, M.

    2011-01-01

    A combined probabilistic physics-of-failure-based model for pitting and corrosion-fatigue degradation mechanisms is proposed to estimate the reliability of structures and to perform prognosis and health management. A mechanistic superposition model for corrosion-fatigue mechanism was used as a benchmark model to propose the simple model. The proposed model describes the degradation of the structures as a function of physical and critical environmental stresses, such as amplitude and frequency of mechanical loads (for example caused by the internal piping pressure) and the concentration of corrosive chemical agents. The parameters of the proposed model are represented by the probability density functions and estimated through a Bayesian approach based on the data taken from the experiments performed as part of this research. For demonstrating applications, the proposed model provides prognostic information about the reliability of aging of structures and is helpful in developing inspection and replacement strategies. - Highlights: ► We model an inventory system under static–dynamic uncertainty strategy. ► The demand is stochastic and non-stationary. ► The optimal ordering policy is proven to be a base stock policy. ► A solution algorithm for finding an optimal solution is provided. ► Two heuristics developed produce high quality solutions and scale-up efficiently.

  20. Numerical vs. turbulent diffusion in geophysical flow modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Isidoro, M.; Maurizi, A.; Tampieri, F.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical advection schemes induce the spreading of passive tracers from localized sources. The effects of changing resolution and Courant number are investigated using the WAF advection scheme, which leads to a sub-diffusive process. The spreading rate from an instantaneous source is compared with the physical diffusion necessary to simulate unresolved turbulent motions. The time at which the physical diffusion process overpowers the numerical spreading is estimated, and is shown to reduce as the resolution increases, and to increase as the wind velocity increases.

  1. Numerical modeling of continental lithospheric weak zone over plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perepechko, Y. V.; Sorokin, K. E.

    2011-12-01

    The work is devoted to the development of magmatic systems in the continental lithosphere over diffluent mantle plumes. The areas of tension originating over them are accompanied by appearance of fault zones, and the formation of permeable channels, which are distributed magmatic melts. The numerical simulation of the dynamics of deformation fields in the lithosphere due to convection currents in the upper mantle, and the formation of weakened zones that extend up to the upper crust and create the necessary conditions for the formation of intermediate magma chambers has been carried out. Thermodynamically consistent non-isothermal model simulates the processes of heat and mass transfer of a wide class of magmatic systems, as well as the process of strain localization in the lithosphere and their influence on the formation of high permeability zones in the lower crust. The substance of the lithosphere is a rheologic heterophase medium, which is described by a two-velocity hydrodynamics. This makes it possible to take into account the process of penetration of the melt from the asthenosphere into the weakened zone. The energy dissipation occurs mainly due to interfacial friction and inelastic relaxation of shear stresses. The results of calculation reveal a nonlinear process of the formation of porous channels and demonstrate the diversity of emerging dissipative structures which are determined by properties of both heterogeneous lithosphere and overlying crust. Mutual effect of a permeable channel and the corresponding filtration process of the melt on the mantle convection and the dynamics of the asthenosphere have been studied. The formation of dissipative structures in heterogeneous lithosphere above mantle plumes occurs in accordance with the following scenario: initially, the elastic behavior of heterophase lithosphere leads to the formation of the narrow weakened zone, though sufficiently extensive, with higher porosity. Further, the increase in the width of

  2. Follicular lymphoma international prognostic index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Solal-Céligny, Philippe; Roy, Pascal; Colombat, Philippe; White, Josephine; Armitage, Jim O.; Arranz-Saez, Reyes; Au, Wing Y.; Bellei, Monica; Brice, Pauline; Caballero, Dolores; Coiffier, Bertrand; Conde-Garcia, Eulogio; Doyen, Chantal; Federico, Massimo; Fisher, Richard I.; Garcia-Conde, Javier F.; Guglielmi, Cesare; Hagenbeek, Anton; Haïoun, Corinne; LeBlanc, Michael; Lister, Andrew T.; Lopez-Guillermo, Armando; McLaughlin, Peter; Milpied, Noël; Morel, Pierre; Mounier, Nicolas; Proctor, Stephen J.; Rohatiner, Ama; Smith, Paul; Soubeyran, Pierre; Tilly, Hervé; Vitolo, Umberto; Zinzani, Pier-Luigi; Zucca, Emanuele; Montserrat, Emili

    2004-01-01

    The prognosis of follicular lymphomas (FL) is heterogeneous and numerous treatments may be proposed. A validated prognostic index (PI) would help in evaluating and choosing these treatments. Characteristics at diagnosis were collected from 4167 patients with FL diagnosed between 1985 and 1992.

  3. Development of an atmospheric diffusion numerical model for a nuclear facility. Numerical calculation method incorporating building effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sada, Koichi; Michioka, Takenobu; Ichikawa, Yoichi

    2002-01-01

    Because effluent gas is sometimes released from low positions, viz., near the ground surface and around buildings, the effects caused by buildings within the site area are not negligible for gas diffusion predictions. For these reasons, the effects caused by buildings for gas diffusion are considered under the terrain following calculation coordinate system in this report. Numerical calculation meshes on the ground surface are treated as the building with the adaptation of wall function techniques of turbulent quantities in the flow calculations using a turbulence closure model. The reflection conditions of released particles on building surfaces are taken into consideration in the diffusion calculation using the Lagrangian particle model. Obtained flow and diffusion calculation results are compared with those of wind tunnel experiments around the building. It was apparent that features observed in a wind tunnel, viz., the formation of cavity regions behind the building and the gas diffusion to the ground surface behind the building, are also obtained by numerical calculation. (author)

  4. Numerical modeling of the pulsar wind interaction with ISM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogovalov, S. V.; Chechetkin, V. M.; Koldoba, A. V.; Ustyugova, G. V.; Battiston, R; Shea, MA; Rakowski, C; Chatterjee, S

    2006-01-01

    Time dependent numerical simulation of relativistic wind interaction with interstellar medium was performed. The winds are ejected from magnetosphere of rotation powered pulsars. The particle flux in the winds is assumed to be isotropic. The energy flux is taken as strongly anisotropic in accordance

  5. Numerical modeling of fine particle fractal aggregates in turbulent flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cao Feifeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for prediction of fine particle transport in a turbulent flow is proposed, the interaction between particles and fluid is studied numerically, and fractal agglomerate of fine particles is analyzed using Taylor-expansion moment method. The paper provides a better understanding of fine particle dynamics in the evolved flows.

  6. Merging of coronal and heliospheric numerical two dimensional MHD models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Odstrčil, Dušan; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Pizzo, J. V.; Luhmann, J. G.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 107, A12 (2002), s. SSH14-1 - SSH14-11 ISSN 0148-0227 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3003003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1003909 Keywords : coronal mass ejection * interplanetary shock * numerical MHD simulation Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 2.245, year: 2002

  7. Numerical Modeling of Fluid Flow in the Tape Casting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2011-01-01

    The flow behavior of the fluid in the tape casting process is analyzed. A simple geometry is assumed for running the numerical calculations in ANSYS Fluent and the main parameters are expressed in non-dimensional form. The effect of different values for substrate velocity and pressure force...

  8. Numerical modelling of random walk one-dimensional diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vamos, C.; Suciu, N.; Peculea, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evolution of a particle which moves on a discrete one-dimensional lattice, according to a random walk low, approximates better the diffusion process smaller the steps of the spatial lattice and time are. For a sufficiently large assembly of particles one can assume that their relative frequency at lattice knots approximates the distribution function of the diffusion process. This assumption has been tested by simulating on computer two analytical solutions of the diffusion equation: the Brownian motion and the steady state linear distribution. To evaluate quantitatively the similarity between the numerical and analytical solutions we have used a norm given by the absolute value of the difference of the two solutions. Also, a diffusion coefficient at any lattice knots and moment of time has been calculated, by using the numerical solution both from the diffusion equation and the particle flux given by Fick's low. The difference between diffusion coefficient of analytical solution and the spatial lattice mean coefficient of numerical solution constitutes another quantitative indication of the similarity of the two solutions. The results obtained show that the approximation depends first on the number of particles at each knot of the spatial lattice. In conclusion, the random walk is a microscopic process of the molecular dynamics type which permits simulations precision of the diffusion processes with given precision. The numerical method presented in this work may be useful both in the analysis of real experiments and for theoretical studies

  9. Numerical experiment with modelled return echo of a satellite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We have simulated the return echo of a satellite altimeter from a rough ocean surface using an analytical formula and have studied its sensitivity with respect to various oceanic and altimeter parameters. Our numerical expcriment shows that for normally observed significant wave heights (SWFI) the effect of ...

  10. Optimized numerical annular flow dryout model using the drift-flux model in tube geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chun, Ji Han; Lee, Un Chul

    2008-01-01

    Many experimental analyses for annular film dryouts, which is one of the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) mechanisms, have been performed because of their importance. Numerical approaches must also be developed in order to assess the results from experiments and to perform pre-tests before experiments. Various thermal-hydraulic codes, such as RELAP, COBRATF, MARS, etc., have been used in the assessment of the results of dryout experiments and in experimental pre-tests. These thermal-hydraulic codes are general tools intended for the analysis of various phenomena that could appear in nuclear power plants, and many models applying these codes are unnecessarily complex for the focused analysis of dryout phenomena alone. In this study, a numerical model was developed for annular film dryout using the drift-flux model from uniform heated tube geometry. Several candidates of models that strongly affect dryout, such as the entrainment model, deposition model, and the criterion for the dryout point model, were tested as candidates for inclusion in an optimized annular film dryout model. The optimized model was developed by adopting the best combination of these candidate models, as determined through comparison with experimental data. This optimized model showed reasonable results, which were better than those of MARS code

  11. Numerical investigation of the recruitment process in open marine population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angulo, O; López-Marcos, J C; López-Marcos, M A; Martínez-Rodríguez, J

    2011-01-01

    The changes in the dynamics, produced by the recruitment process in an open marine population model, are investigated from a numerical point of view. The numerical method considered, based on the representation of the solution along the characteristic lines, approximates properly the steady states of the model, and is used to analyze the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the model

  12. Integrating Tenascin-C protein expression and 1q25 copy number status in pediatric intracranial ependymoma prognostication: A new model for risk stratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreiuolo, Felipe; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Bayar, Mohamed Amine; Kilday, John-Paul; Pietsch, Torsten; von Bueren, André O; Witt, Hendrik; Korshunov, Andrey; Modena, Piergiorgio; Pfister, Stefan M; Pagès, Mélanie; Castel, David; Giangaspero, Felice; Chimelli, Leila; Varlet, Pascale; Rutkowski, Stefan; Frappaz, Didier; Massimino, Maura; Grundy, Richard; Grill, Jacques

    2017-01-01

    Despite multimodal therapy, prognosis of pediatric intracranial ependymomas remains poor with a 5-year survival rate below 70% and frequent late deaths. This multicentric European study evaluated putative prognostic biomarkers. Tenascin-C (TNC) immunohistochemical expression and copy number status of 1q25 were retained for a pooled analysis of 5 independent cohorts. The prognostic value of TNC and 1q25 on the overall survival (OS) was assessed using a Cox model adjusted to age at diagnosis, tumor location, WHO grade, extent of resection, radiotherapy and stratified by cohort. Stratification on a predictor that did not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption was considered. Model performance was evaluated and an internal-external cross validation was performed. Among complete cases with 5-year median follow-up (n = 470; 131 deaths), TNC and 1q25 gain were significantly associated with age at diagnosis and posterior fossa tumor location. 1q25 status added independent prognostic value for death beyond the classical variables with a hazard ratio (HR) = 2.19 95%CI = [1.29; 3.76] (p = 0.004), while TNC prognostic relation was tumor location-dependent with HR = 2.19 95%CI = [1.29; 3.76] (p = 0.004) in posterior fossa and HR = 0.64 [0.28; 1.48] (p = 0.295) in supratentorial (interaction p value = 0.015). The derived prognostic score identified 3 different robust risk groups. The omission of upfront RT was not associated with OS for good and intermediate prognostic groups while the absence of upfront RT was negatively associated with OS in the poor risk group. Integrated TNC expression and 1q25 status are useful to better stratify patients and to eventually adapt treatment regimens in pediatric intracranial ependymoma.

  13. Integrating Tenascin-C protein expression and 1q25 copy number status in pediatric intracranial ependymoma prognostication: A new model for risk stratification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Andreiuolo

    Full Text Available Despite multimodal therapy, prognosis of pediatric intracranial ependymomas remains poor with a 5-year survival rate below 70% and frequent late deaths.This multicentric European study evaluated putative prognostic biomarkers. Tenascin-C (TNC immunohistochemical expression and copy number status of 1q25 were retained for a pooled analysis of 5 independent cohorts. The prognostic value of TNC and 1q25 on the overall survival (OS was assessed using a Cox model adjusted to age at diagnosis, tumor location, WHO grade, extent of resection, radiotherapy and stratified by cohort. Stratification on a predictor that did not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption was considered. Model performance was evaluated and an internal-external cross validation was performed.Among complete cases with 5-year median follow-up (n = 470; 131 deaths, TNC and 1q25 gain were significantly associated with age at diagnosis and posterior fossa tumor location. 1q25 status added independent prognostic value for death beyond the classical variables with a hazard ratio (HR = 2.19 95%CI = [1.29; 3.76] (p = 0.004, while TNC prognostic relation was tumor location-dependent with HR = 2.19 95%CI = [1.29; 3.76] (p = 0.004 in posterior fossa and HR = 0.64 [0.28; 1.48] (p = 0.295 in supratentorial (interaction p value = 0.015. The derived prognostic score identified 3 different robust risk groups. The omission of upfront RT was not associated with OS for good and intermediate prognostic groups while the absence of upfront RT was negatively associated with OS in the poor risk group.Integrated TNC expression and 1q25 status are useful to better stratify patients and to eventually adapt treatment regimens in pediatric intracranial ependymoma.

  14. Free surface modelling with two-fluid model and reduced numerical diffusion of the interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strubelj, Luka; Tiselj, Izrok

    2008-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The free surface flows are successfully modelled with one of existing free surface models, such as: level set method, volume of fluid method (with/without surface reconstruction), front tracking, two-fluid model (two momentum equations) with modified interphase force and others. The main disadvantage of two-fluid model used for simulations of free surface flows is numerical diffusion of the interface, which can be significantly reduced using the method presented in this paper. Several techniques for reduction of numerical diffusion of the interface have been implemented in the volume of fluid model and are based on modified numerical schemes for advection of volume fraction near the interface. The same approach could be used also for two-fluid method, but according to our experience more successful reduction of numerical diffusion of the interface can be achieved with conservative level set method. Within the conservative level set method, continuity equation for volume fraction is solved and after that the numerical diffusion of the interface is reduced in such a way that the thickness of the interface is kept constant during the simulation. Reduction of the interface diffusion can be also called interface sharpening. In present paper the two-fluid model with interface sharpening is validated on Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Under assumptions of isothermal and incompressible flow of two immiscible fluids, we simulated a system with the fluid of higher density located above the fluid of smaller density in two dimensions. Due to gravity in the system, fluid with higher density moves below the fluid with smaller density. Initial condition is not a flat interface between the fluids, but a sine wave with small amplitude, which develops into a mushroom-like structure. Mushroom-like structure in simulation of Rayleigh-Taylor instability later develops to small droplets as result of numerical dispersion of interface (interface sharpening

  15. Numerical simulations and mathematical models of flows in complex geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez Garcia, Anier

    The research work of the present thesis was mainly aimed at exploiting one of the strengths of the Lattice Boltzmann methods, namely, the ability to handle complicated geometries to accurately simulate flows in complex geometries. In this thesis, we perform a very detailed theoretical analysis...... and through the Chapman-Enskog multi-scale expansion technique the dependence of the kinetic viscosity on each scheme is investigated. Seeking for optimal numerical schemes to eciently simulate a wide range of complex flows a variant of the finite element, off-lattice Boltzmann method [5], which uses...... the characteristic based integration is also implemented. Using the latter scheme, numerical simulations are conducted in flows of different complexities: flow in a (real) porous network and turbulent flows in ducts with wall irregularities. From the simulations of flows in porous media driven by pressure gradients...

  16. Numerical modelling of passively Q-switched intracavity Raman lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shuanghong; Zhang Xingyu; Wang Qingpu; Zhang Jun; Wang Shumei; Liu Yuru; Zhang Xuehui

    2007-01-01

    Assuming intracavity photon densities to be of Gaussian spatial distributions, the space-dependent rate equations of passively Q-switched intracavity Raman lasers are deduced for the first time for the pumping beams of Gaussian and top-head spatial distributions, respectively. The new rate equations are normalized and solved numerically to investigate the influences of the normalized initial population inversion density, normalized Raman gain coefficient, saturable absorber parameter, beam size ratio of pump to fundamental laser and loss ratio of the first Stokes to fundamental laser on the pulse parameters of the first Stokes. The results of the Gaussian and top-head pumpings show similar trends despite some discrepancies. The new theories and numerical results will help design passively Q-switched intracavity Raman lasers of high performance

  17. Fractional Calculus in Hydrologic Modeling: A Numerical Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David A. Benson; Mark M. Meerschaert; Jordan Revielle

    2012-01-01

    Fractional derivatives can be viewed either as a handy extension of classical calculus or, more deeply, as mathematical operators defined by natural phenomena. This follows the view that the diffusion equation is defined as the governing equation of a Brownian motion. In this paper, we emphasize that fractional derivatives come from the governing equations of stable Levy motion, and that fractional integration is the corresponding inverse operator. Fractional integration, and its multi-dimensional extensions derived in this way, are intimately tied to fractional Brownian (and Levy) motions and noises. By following these general principles, we discuss the Eulerian and Lagrangian numerical solutions to fractional partial differential equations, and Eulerian methods for stochastic integrals. These numerical approximations illuminate the essential nature of the fractional calculus.

  18. Heterogeneous agent model and numerical analysis of learning

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vošvrda, Miloslav; Vácha, Lukáš

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 17 (2002), s. 15-22 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0034; GA ČR GA402/01/0539; GA AV ČR IAA7075202 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : efficient markets hypothesis * technical trading rules * numerical analysis of learning Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  19. Numerical modeling and optimization of the Iguassu gas centrifuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogovalov, S. V.; Borman, V. D.; Borisevich, V. D.; Tronin, V. N.; Tronin, I. V.

    2017-07-01

    The full procedure of the numerical calculation of the optimized parameters of the Iguassu gas centrifuge (GC) is under discussion. The procedure consists of a few steps. On the first step the problem of a hydrodynamical flow of the gas in the rotating rotor of the GC is solved numerically. On the second step the problem of diffusion of the binary mixture of isotopes is solved. The separation power of the gas centrifuge is calculated after that. On the last step the time consuming procedure of optimization of the GC is performed providing us the maximum of the separation power. The optimization is based on the BOBYQA method exploring the results of numerical simulations of the hydrodynamics and diffusion of the mixture of isotopes. Fast convergence of calculations is achieved due to exploring of a direct solver at the solution of the hydrodynamical and diffusion parts of the problem. Optimized separative power and optimal internal parameters of the Iguassu GC with 1 m rotor were calculated using the developed approach. Optimization procedure converges in 45 iterations taking 811 minutes.

  20. Numerical implementation of a transverse-isotropic inelastic, work-hardening constitutive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baladi, G.Y.

    1978-01-01

    The numerical implementation of a transverse-isotropic inelastic, work-hardening plastic constitutive model is documented. A brief review of the model is presented first to facilitate the understanding of its numerical implementation. This model is formulated in terms of 'pseudo' stress invariants, so that the incremental stress-strain relationship can be readily incorporated into existing finite-difference or infinite-element computer codes. The anisotropic model reduces to its isotropic counterpart without any changes in the mathematical formulation or in the numerical implementation (algorithm) of the model. A typical example of the model and its behavior in uniaxial strain and triaxial compression is presented. (Auth.)