WorldWideScience

Sample records for prognostic numerical model

  1. Numerical models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Manoj, N.T.

    Various numerical models used to study the dynamics and horizontal distribution of salinity in Mandovi-Zuari estuaries, Goa, India is discussed in this chapter. Earlier, a one-dimensional network model was developed for representing the complex...

  2. Prognostic modeling in pediatric acute liver failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vandana; Dhawan, Anil

    2016-10-01

    Liver transplantation (LT) is the only proven treatment for pediatric acute liver failure (PALF). However, over a period of time, spontaneous native liver survival is increasingly reported, making us wonder if we are overtransplanting children with acute liver failure (ALF). An effective prognostic model for PALF would help direct appropriate organ allocation. Only patients who would die would undergo LT, and those who would spontaneously recover would avoid unnecessary LT. Deriving and validating such a model for PALF, however, encompasses numerous challenges. In particular, the heterogeneity of age and etiology in PALF, as well as a lack of understanding of the natural history of the disease, contributed by the availability of LT has led to difficulties in prognostic model development. Several prognostic laboratory variables have been identified, and the incorporation of these variables into scoring systems has been attempted. A reliable targeted prognostic model for ALF in Wilson's disease has been established and externally validated. The roles of physiological, immunological, and metabolomic parameters in prognosis are being investigated. This review discusses the challenges with prognostic modeling in PALF and describes predictive methods that are currently available and in development for the future. Liver Transplantation 22 1418-1430 2016 AASLD. © 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  3. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  4. Numerical Modelling of Streams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Kristian

    In recent years there has been a sharp increase in the use of numerical water quality models. Numeric water quality modeling can be divided into three steps: Hydrodynamic modeling for the determination of stream flow and water levels. Modelling of transport and dispersion of a conservative dissol...... dissolved substance. Modeling of chemical and biological turnover of substances....

  5. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...... of the working model. We further illustrate the methods by computing the concordance probability for a prognostic model of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in the presence of the competing risk of non-CHD death.......The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate...

  6. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  7. Physical modeling versus numerical modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blacquière, G.; Veldhuizen, E. van

    2003-01-01

    Despite the widespread use of numerical modeling, there is still room for physical modeling today for many reasons. E.g., physical modeling is based on real wave propagation whereas numerical modeling is based on algorithms which are by necessity simplified and discretized versions of the 'real

  8. Numerical Transducer Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriquez, Vicente Cutanda

    This thesis describes the development of a numerical model of the propagation of sound waves in fluids with viscous and thermal losses, with application to the simulation of acoustic transducers, in particular condenser microphones for measurement. The theoretical basis is presented, numerical...... with very close surfaces, as found in condenser microphones, where the membrane has a backplate very close behind. This improvement could be useful for many other problems where the BEM is applied. The numerical implementation that includes both viscous and thermal effects is then worked out. Some numerical...... that are allowable in this case: linear variations, absence of flow, harmonic time variation, thermodynamical equilibrium and physical dimensions much larger than the molecular mean free path. A formulation of the BEM is also developed with an improvement designed to cope with the numerical difficulty associated...

  9. Numerical transducer modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutanda, Vicente

    1999-01-01

    Numerical modelling is of importance for the design, improvement and study of acoustic transducers such as microphones and accelerometers. Techniques like the boundary element method and the finite element method are the most common supplement to the traditional empirical and analytical approaches...... errors and instabilities in the computations of numerical solutions. An investigation to deal with this narrow-gap problem has been carried out....

  10. Numerical model SMODERP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavka, P.; Jeřábek, J.; Strouhal, L.

    2016-12-01

    The contribution presents a numerical model SMODERP that is used for calculation and prediction of surface runoff and soil erosion from agricultural land. The physically based model includes the processes of infiltration (Phillips equation), surface runoff routing (kinematic wave based equation), surface retention, surface roughness and vegetation impact on runoff. The model is being developed at the Department of Irrigation, Drainage and Landscape Engineering, Civil Engineering Faculty, CTU in Prague. 2D version of the model was introduced in last years. The script uses ArcGIS system tools for data preparation. The physical relations are implemented through Python scripts. The main computing part is stand alone in numpy arrays. Flow direction is calculated by Steepest Descent algorithm and in multiple flow algorithm. Sheet flow is described by modified kinematic wave equation. Parameters for five different soil textures were calibrated on the set of hundred measurements performed on the laboratory and filed rainfall simulators. Spatially distributed models enable to estimate not only surface runoff but also flow in the rills. Development of the rills is based on critical shear stress and critical velocity. For modelling of the rills a specific sub model was created. This sub model uses Manning formula for flow estimation. Flow in the ditches and streams are also computed. Numerical stability of the model is controled by Courant criterion. Spatial scale is fixed. Time step is dynamic and depends on the actual discharge. The model is used in the framework of the project "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Main goal of the project is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The methodology will account for

  11. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  12. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  13. Physicians' perceptions of the value of prognostic models: the benefits and risks of prognostic confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallen, Sarah A M; Hootsmans, Norbert A M; Blaisdell, Laura; Gutheil, Caitlin M; Han, Paul K J

    2015-12-01

    The communication of prognosis in end-of-life (EOL) care is a challenging task that is limited by prognostic uncertainty and physicians' lack of confidence in their prognostic estimates. Clinical prediction models (CPMs) are increasingly common evidence-based tools that may mitigate these problems and facilitate the communication and use of prognostic information in EOL care; however, little is known about physicians' perceptions of the value of these tools. To explore physicians' perceptions of the value of CPMs in EOL care. Qualitative study using semi-structured individual interviews which were analysed using a constant comparative method. Convenience sample of 17 attending physicians representing five different medical specialties at a single large tertiary care medical centre. Physicians perceived CPMs as having three main benefits in EOL care: (i) enhancing their prognostic confidence; (ii) increasing their prognostic authority; and (iii) enabling patient persuasion in circumstances of low prognostic and therapeutic uncertainty. However, physicians also perceived CPMs as having potential risks, which include producing emotional distress in patients and promoting prognostic overconfidence in EOL care. Physicians perceive CPMs as a potentially valuable means of increasing their prognostic confidence, communication and explicit use of prognostic information in EOL care. However, physicians' perceptions of CPMs also indicate a need to establish broad and consistent implementation processes to engage patients in shared decision making in EOL care, to effectively communicate uncertainty in prognostic information and to help both patients and physicians manage uncertainty in EOL care decisions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Numerical modelling of mine workings.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lightfoot, N

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available to eliminate as many problems and mistakes as possible. Sections are included covering details of the actual use of the two common digitising packages. The first example utilises a number of different numerical modelling programs to solve a single problem... and applications of numerical modelling in the context of the South African gold and platinum mining industries. This includes an example that utilises a number of different numerical 3 modelling programs to solve a single problem. This particular example...

  15. Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  16. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...

  17. Model-based Prognostics with Concurrent Damage Progression Processes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches rely on physics-based models that describe the behavior of systems and their components. These models must account for the several...

  18. Comparison of two prognostic models for acute pulmonary embolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd-ElRahim Ibrahim Youssef

    2016-10-01

    Conclusion: (1 There is an agreement to great extent in risk stratification of APE patients by PESI and ESC prognostic models, where mortality rate is increased among high risk classes of both models, (2 ESC prognostic model is more accurate than PESI model in mortality prediction of APE patients especially in the high risk class, (3 echocardiographic evidence of RVD and elevated plasma BNP can help to identify APE patients at increased risk of adverse short-term outcome and (4 integration of RVD assessment by echocardiography and BNP to clinical findings improves the prognostic value of ESC model.

  19. Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowl- edge in the form of physics-based models of components that include how they fail. These methods consist of...

  20. Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-based Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches employ do- main knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Compo- nent...

  1. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  2. Wind laws for shockless initialization. [numerical forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Shkoller, B.

    1976-01-01

    A system of diagnostic equations for the velocity field, or wind laws, was derived for each of a number of models of large-scale atmospheric flow. The derivation in each case is mathematically exact and does not involve any physical assumptions not already present in the prognostic equations, such as nondivergence or vanishing of derivatives of the divergence. Therefore, initial states computed by solving these diagnostic equations should be compatible with the type of motion described by the prognostic equations of the model and should not generate initialization shocks when inserted into the model. Numerical solutions of the diagnostic system corresponding to a barotropic model are exhibited. Some problems concerning the possibility of implementing such a system in operational numerical weather prediction are discussed.

  3. Numerical Modeling of Advanced materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meinders, Vincent T.; Perdahcioglu, Emin Semih; van Riel, M.; Wisselink, H.H.

    2008-01-01

    The finite element (FE) method is widely used to numerically simulate forming processes. The accuracy of an FE analysis strongly depends on the extent to which a material model can represent the real material behavior. The use of new materials requires complex material models which are able to

  4. Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Binh T. Pham

    2014-09-01

    In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of fault signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.

  5. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated....

  6. A Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Model-based Avionic Prognostic Reasoner (MAPR) presented in this paper is an innovative solution for non-intrusively monitoring the state of health (SoH) and...

  7. Model-based Prognostics with Fixed-lag Particle Filters

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowl- edge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenom- ena in a...

  8. A framework for quantifying net benefits of alternative prognostic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rapsomaniki, Eleni; White, Ian R; Wood, Angela M

    2012-01-01

    New prognostic models are traditionally evaluated using measures of discrimination and risk reclassification, but these do not take full account of the clinical and health economic context. We propose a framework for comparing prognostic models by quantifying the public health impact (net benefit......) of the treatment decisions they support, assuming a set of predetermined clinical treatment guidelines. The change in net benefit is more clinically interpretable than changes in traditional measures and can be used in full health economic evaluations of prognostic models used for screening and allocating risk...... reduction interventions. We extend previous work in this area by quantifying net benefits in life years, thus linking prognostic performance to health economic measures; by taking full account of the occurrence of events over time; and by considering estimation and cross-validation in a multiple...

  9. Prognostic immune-related gene models for breast cancer: a pooled analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jianli; Wang, Ying; Lao, Zengding; Liang, Siting; Hou, Jingyi; Yu, Yunfang; Yao, Herui; You, Na; Chen, Kai

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer, the most common cancer among women, is a clinically and biologically heterogeneous disease. Numerous prognostic tools have been proposed, including gene signatures. Unlike proliferation-related prognostic gene signatures, many immune-related gene signatures have emerged as principal biology-driven predictors of breast cancer. Diverse statistical methods and data sets were used for building these immune-related prognostic models, making it difficult to compare or use them in clinically meaningful ways. This study evaluated successfully published immune-related prognostic gene signatures through systematic validations of publicly available data sets. Eight prognostic models that were built upon immune-related gene signatures were evaluated. The performances of these models were compared and ranked in ten publicly available data sets, comprising a total of 2,449 breast cancer cases. Predictive accuracies were measured as concordance indices (C-indices). All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. Immune-related gene models performed better in estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) and lymph node-positive (LN+) breast cancer subtypes. The three top-ranked ER- breast cancer models achieved overall C-indices of 0.62-0.63. Two models predicted better than chance for ER+ breast cancer, with C-indices of 0.53 and 0.59, respectively. For LN+ breast cancer, four models showed predictive advantage, with C-indices between 0.56 and 0.61. Predicted prognostic values were positively correlated with ER status when evaluated using univariate analyses in most of the models under investigation. Multivariate analyses indicated that prognostic values of the three models were independent of known clinical prognostic factors. Collectively, these analyses provided a comprehensive evaluation of immune-related prognostic gene signatures. By synthesizing C-indices in multiple independent data sets, immune-related gene signatures were ranked for ER+, ER-, LN+, and LN- breast

  10. Numerical models for differential problems

    CERN Document Server

    Quarteroni, Alfio

    2017-01-01

    In this text, we introduce the basic concepts for the numerical modelling of partial differential equations. We consider the classical elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic linear equations, but also the diffusion, transport, and Navier-Stokes equations, as well as equations representing conservation laws, saddle-point problems and optimal control problems. Furthermore, we provide numerous physical examples which underline such equations. We then analyze numerical solution methods based on finite elements, finite differences, finite volumes, spectral methods and domain decomposition methods, and reduced basis methods. In particular, we discuss the algorithmic and computer implementation aspects and provide a number of easy-to-use programs. The text does not require any previous advanced mathematical knowledge of partial differential equations: the absolutely essential concepts are reported in a preliminary chapter. It is therefore suitable for students of bachelor and master courses in scientific disciplines, an...

  11. Numerical models for differential problems

    CERN Document Server

    Quarteroni, Alfio

    2014-01-01

    In this text, we introduce the basic concepts for the numerical modelling of partial differential equations. We consider the classical elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic linear equations, but also the diffusion, transport, and Navier-Stokes equations, as well as equations representing conservation laws, saddle-point problems and optimal control problems. Furthermore, we provide numerous physical examples which underline such equations. We then analyze numerical solution methods based on finite elements, finite differences, finite volumes, spectral methods and domain decomposition methods, and reduced basis methods. In particular, we discuss the algorithmic and computer implementation aspects and provide a number of easy-to-use programs. The text does not require any previous advanced mathematical knowledge of partial differential equations: the absolutely essential concepts are reported in a preliminary chapter. It is therefore suitable for students of bachelor and master courses in scientific disciplines, an...

  12. Numerical Modeling of Shoreline Undulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg

    The present thesis considers undulations on sandy shorelines. The aim of the study is to determine the physical mechanisms which govern the morphologic evolution of shoreline undulations, and thereby to be able to predict their shape, dimensions and evolution in time. In order to do so a numerical...... undulations are described by the model. The shoreline evolution is considered for both constant and varying wave forcing and both periodic model domains with a single undulation as well as periodic model domains with multiple undulation are considered. Three different shoreline shapes are found depending...... of the shoreline. Thirdly the shoreline evolution model is tuned to two naturally occurring shorelines. On one of the shorelines, the west coast of Namibia, the shoreline model is able to describe the observed shoreline features in both a qualitative and quantitative way. The model over-predicts the scale...

  13. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Daigle

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

  14. Numerical model of thyroid counter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szuchta Maciej

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to develop a numerical model of spectrometric thyroid counter, which is used for the measurements of internal contamination by in vivo method. The modeled detector is used for a routine internal exposure monitoring procedure in the Radiation Protection Measurements Laboratory of National Centre for Nuclear Research (NCBJ. This procedure may also be used for monitoring of occupationally exposed nuclear medicine personnel. The developed model was prepared using Monte Carlo code FLUKA 2011 ver. 2b.6 Apr-14 and FLAIR ver. 1.2-5 interface. It contains a scintillation NaI(Tl detector, the collimator and the thyroid water phantom with a reference source of iodine 131I. The geometry of the model was designed and a gamma energy spectrum of iodine 131I deposited in the detector was calculated.

  15. Numerical modelling of rapid solidification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryds, Nini; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    1997-01-01

    A mathematical model of the melt spinning process has been developed based on the control-volume finite-difference method. The model avoids some of the limitations of the previous models, for example including the effect of the wheel in the heat how calculations and the temperature dependence......, for example the recalescence characteristic, was investigated. The results of the model showed that the effect of heating of the wheel is difficult to prevent even for a wheel material of high conductivity. The recalescence effect was found to be influenced by the wheel surface temperature and to decrease...... with increasing thermal conductivity of the wheel. The observed increase in the wheel surface temperature suggests the importance of including the wheel in the numerical calculations, especially for a wheel made of a low-conductive material...

  16. Numerical Modeling of Munroe Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Charles; Gittings, Michael

    2007-06-01

    Munroe jets are formed by the oblique interaction of detonation products from two explosive charges separated by an air gap. The jet consists of a high velocity jet of low density precursor gases and particles that travel faster than the primary jet which is a high pressure regular shock reflection. The Los Alamos PHERMEX Data Volumes [1] contain 40 radiographs taken by Douglas Venable in the 1960's of Munroe Jets generated by Composition B explosive charges separated by 5 to 80 mm of air. In several of the experiments the Munroe jets interacted with thin Tantalum foils and with aluminum plates. The PHERMEX experiments were modeled using the AMR Eulerian reactive hydrodynamic code, NOBEL [2,3], When the detonation arrives at the bottom of the gap, the detonation product s expand against the air and precursor gases travel at high velocity ahead of the detonation wave in the explosive. The expanding detonation products from the explosive collide and result in a high pressure regular shock reflection.. Interaction with a metal plate consists of first the interaction of the precursor gases and then the high pressure regular shock reflection arrives to further damage the metal plate. [1] Los Alamos PHERMEX Data, Volumes I, II, and III, UC Press 1980. [2] Numerical Modeling of Water Waves, Second Edition, Charles L. Mader, CRC Press 2004 [3] Numerical Modeling of Explosions and Propellants, Charles L. Mader, CRC Press 1998.

  17. Numerical Model for Hydrovolcanic Explosions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mader, Charles; Gittings, Michael

    2007-03-01

    A hydrovolcanic explosion is generated by the interaction of hot magma with ground water. It is called Surtseyan after the 1963 explosive eruption off Iceland. The water flashes to steam and expands explosively. Liquid water becomes water gas at constant volume and generates pressures of about 3GPa. The Krakatoa hydrovolcanic explosion was modeled using the full Navier-Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called SAGE [1] which includes the high pressure physics of explosions. The water in the hydrovolcanic explosion was described as liquid water heated by magma to 1100 K. The high temperature water is treated as an explosive with the hot liquid water going to water gas. The BKW [2] steady state detonation state has a peak pressure of 8.9 GPa, a propagation velocity of 5900 meters/sec and the water is compressed to 1.33 g/cc. [1] Numerical Modeling of Water Waves, Second Edition, Charles L. Mader, CRC Press 2004. [2] Numerical Modeling of Explosions and Propellants, Charles L. Mader, CRC Press 1998.

  18. Numerical modelling of fuel sprays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, C.

    1999-06-01

    The way the fuel is introduced into the combustion chamber is one of the most important parameters for the power output and the generation of emissions in the combustion of liquid fuels. The interaction between the turbulent gas flow field and the liquid fuel droplets, the vaporisation of them and the mixing of the gaseous fuel with the ambient air that are vital parameters in the combustion process. The use of numerical calculations is an important tool to better understand these complex interacting phenomena. This thesis reports on the numerical modelling of fuel sprays in non-reacting cases using an own developed spray module. The spray module uses the stochastic parcel method to represent the spray. The module was made in such manner that it could by coupled with different gas flow solver. Results obtained from four different gas flow solvers are presented in the thesis, including the use of two different kinds of turbulence models. In the first part the spray module is coupled with a k-{eta} based 2-D cylindrical gas flow solver. A thorough sensitivity analysis was performed on the spray and gas flow solver parameters, such as grid size dependence and sensitivity to initial values of k-{eta}. The results of the spray module were also compared to results from other spray codes, e.g. the well known KIVA code. In the second part of this thesis the spray was injected into a turbulent and fully developed crossflow studied. The spray module was attached to a LES (Large Eddy Simulation) based flow solvers enabling the study of the complex structures and time dependent phenomena involved in spray in crossflows. It was found that the spray performs an oscillatory motion and that the Strouhal number in the wake was about 0.1. Different spray breakup models were evaluated by comparing with experimental results 66 refs, 56 figs

  19. Numerical Modeling of Microelectrochemical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adesokan, Bolaji James

    reaction term at the boundary. We investigate the effect of flow rates, scan rates, and concentration on the cyclic voltammetry. We establish that high flow rates lead to the reduced hysteresis in the cyclic voltammetry curves and increasing scan rates lead to more pronounced current peaks. The final part...... incorporates the finite size of ionic species in the transport equation. The model presents a more appropriate boundary conditions which describe the modified Butler-Volmer reaction kinetics and account for the surface capacitance of the thin electric double layer. We also have found analytical solution...... of the paper shows that the response current in a cyclic voltammetry increases proportionally to the electrolyte concentration. In the second paper we present an experiment of an electrochemical system in a microfluidc system and compare the result to the numerical solutions. We investigate how the position...

  20. Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, S.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

  1. A numerical reference model for themomechanical subduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinquis, Matthieu; Chemia, Zurab; Tosi, Nicola

    2010-01-01

    response to systematic variations in input parameters, numerical studies often start from a 'reference' subduction model. However, the reference model often varies between different numerical studies, making it difficult to compare results directly. We aim therefore to define a numerical reference model......, and initial temperature distribution. We will show results of the evolution and dynamics of the subduction reference model using different numerical codes: a finite element code, SULEC, and two finite difference codes, YACC and FDcon....

  2. Numerical modeling of facial aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitanguy, I; Pamplona, D; Weber, H I; Leta, F; Salgado, F; Radwanski, H N

    1998-07-01

    Facial aging is a biological phenomenon. Skin properties change with time, and gravity and facial expressions exert mechanical deformation. Knowledge of these alterations may suggest ways to reverse them by identifying the corresponding distortional forces. The aim of this study was to determine a pattern of change for parameters of the face during the aging process, based on the numerical fitting of measures from a sample of patients. The first aspect of this study was to define adequate facial parameters and means of measuring them. Subsequently, each parameter was defined individually, and these data were analyzed as a set. The sample for the research was restricted to a group of 40 white female patients with a history of limited exposure to the sun, with ages ranging from 25 to 65. The reason for choosing this sample was the availability of frontal pattern photographs at different ages. The parameters for each patient were measured at two different ages. A strong correlation was found between age and behavior of the parameters. This aging model can be verified qualitatively by comparing photographs of a patient with manipulated photographs simulating aging. The quantitative verification of the model was done through the comparison of the measured and the predicted parameters.

  3. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Saha

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the “curse of dimensionality”, i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for “well-designed” particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion and Li-Polymer batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

  4. Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

  5. numerical and numerical and experimental modeling of the static

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    recommendation for subsequent experiments and analysis of these types of structural elements. In this paper a report of numerical and experimental modeling of the static response of thin-walled reinforced concrete box girder bridges is given. The work is executed to verify the validity of a software developed by the authors ...

  6. Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

    2013-01-01

    Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

  7. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of mine backfill material needs special attention as the numerical model must behave realistically and in accordance with the site conditions. This paper discusses a numerical modelling strategy for modelling mine backfill material. Themodelling strategy is studied using a case study mine from Canadian mining industry.

  8. Numerical model representation and validation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1997-10-01

    This paper describes model representation and validation strategies for use in numerical tools that define models in terms of topology, geometry, or topography. Examples of such tools include Computer-Assisted Engineering (CAE), Computer-Assisted Manufacturing (CAM), Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and Virtual Environment Simulation (VES) tools. These tools represent either physical objects or conceptual ideas using numerical models for the purpose of posing a question, performing a task, or generating information. Dependence on these numerical representations require that models be precise, consistent across different applications, and verifiable. This paper describes a strategy for ensuring precise, consistent, and verifiable numerical model representations in a topographic framework. The main assertion put forth is that topographic model descriptions are more appropriate for numerical applications than topological or geometrical descriptions. A topographic model verification and validation methodology is presented.

  9. Numerical modelling of hydration reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrijmoed, Johannes C.; John, Timm

    2017-04-01

    Mineral reactions are generally accompanied by volume changes. Observations in rocks and thin section indicate that this often occurred by replacement reactions involving a fluid phase. Frequently, the volume of the original rock or mineral seems to be conserved. If the density of the solid reaction products is higher than the reactants, the associated solid volume decrease generates space for a fluid phase. In other words, porosity is created. The opposite is true for an increase in solid volume during reaction, which leads to a porosity reduction. This slows down and may even stop the reaction if it needs fluid as a reactant. Understanding the progress of reactions and their rates is important because reaction generally changes geophysical and rock mechanical properties which will therefore affect geodynamical processes and seismic properties. We studied the case of hydration of eclogite to blueschist in a subduction zone setting. Eclogitized pillow basalt structures from the Tian-Shan orogeny are transformed to blueschist on the rims of the pillow (van der Straaten et al., 2008). Fluid pathways existed between the pillow structures. The preferred hypothesis of blueschist formation is to supply the fluid for hydration from the pillow margins progressing inward. Using numerical modelling we simulate this coupled reaction-diffusion process. Porosity and fluid pressure evolution are coupled to local thermodynamic equilibrium and density changes. The first rim of blueschist that forms around the eclogite pillow increases volume to such a degree that the system is clogged and the reaction stops. Nevertheless, the field evidence suggests the blueschist formation continued. To prevent the system from clogging, a high incoming pore fluid pressure on the pillow boundaries is needed along with removal of mass from the system to accommodate the volume changes. The only other possibility is to form blueschist from any remaining fluid stored in the core of the pillow

  10. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  11. Mathematical and Numerical Modeling in Maritime Geomechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Martín Stickle

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical and numerical framework to model the foundation of marine offshore structures is presented. The theoretical model is composed by a system of partial differential equations describing coupling between seabed solid skeleton and pore fluids (water, air, oil,... combined with a system of ordinary differential equations describing the specific constitutive relation of the seabed soil skeleton. Once the theoretical model is described, the finite element numerical procedure to achieve an approximate solution of the overning equations is outlined. In order to validate the proposed theoretical and numerical framework the seaward tilt mechanism induced by the action of breaking waves over a vertical breakwater is numerically reproduced. The results numerically attained are in agreement with the main conclusions drawn from the literature associated with this failure mechanism.

  12. Prognostic survival model for people diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baade, Peter D; Royston, Patrick; Youl, Philipa H; Weinstock, Martin A; Geller, Alan; Aitken, Joanne F

    2015-01-31

    The ability of medical practitioners to communicate risk estimates effectively to patients diagnosed with melanoma relies on accurate information about prognostic factors and their impact on survival. This study reports the development of one of the few melanoma prognostic models, called the Melanoma Severity Index (MSI), based on population-based cancer registry data. Data from the Queensland Cancer Registry for people (20-89 years) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma between 1995 and 2008 (n = 28,654; 1,700 melanoma deaths). Additional clinical information about metastasis, ulceration and positive lymph nodes was manually extracted from pathology forms. Flexible parametric survival models were combined with multivariable fractional polynomial for selecting variables and transformations of continuous variables. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate values. The MSI contained the variables thickness (transformed, explained 40.6% of variation in survival), body site (additional 1.9% in variation), metastasis (1.8%), positive nodes (0.7%), ulceration (1.3%), age (1.1%). Royston and Sauerbrei's D statistic (measure of discrimination) was 1.50 (95% CI = 1.44, 1.56) and the corresponding RD2 (measure of explained variation) was 0.47 (0.45, 0.49), demonstrating strong explanatory performance. The Harrell-C statistic was 0.88 (0.88, 0.89). Lacking an external validation dataset, we applied internal-external cross validation to demonstrate the consistency of the prognostic information across geographically-defined subsets of the cohort. The MSI provides good ability to predict survival for melanoma patients. Beyond the immediate clinical use, the MSI may have important public health and research applications for evaluations of public health interventions aimed at reducing deaths from melanoma.

  13. Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryds, Nini; Thorborg, Jesper; Lipinski, Marek

    Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes comprises a thorough presentation of the basic phenomena that need to be addressed in numerical simulation of casting processes. The main philosophy of the book is to present the topics in view of their physical meaning, whenever possible...

  14. Physics based Degradation Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors under Electrical Overstress Conditions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes a physics based degradation modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors are critical components in...

  15. Prognostics Health Management and Physics based failure Models for Electrolytic Capacitors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major...

  16. Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryds, Nini; Thorborg, Jesper; Lipinski, Marek

    Fundamentals of Numerical Modelling of Casting Processes comprises a thorough presentation of the basic phenomena that need to be addressed in numerical simulation of casting processes. The main philosophy of the book is to present the topics in view of their physical meaning, whenever possible......) presents the most important aspects of solidification theory related to modelling. Part III (Chapter 5) describes the fluid flow phenomena and in part IV (Chapter 6) the stress-strain analysis is addressed. For all parts, both numerical formulations as well as some important analytical solutions...

  17. Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Stockli, Reto [Colorado State University, Fort Collins

    2008-01-01

    Predicting the global carbon and water cycle requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology in climate models. However most prognostic phenology models are not yet suited for global applications, and diagnostic satellite data can be uncertain and lack predictive power. We present a framework for data assimilation of Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to constrain empirical temperature, light, moisture and structural vegetation parameters of a prognostic phenology model. We find that data assimilation better constrains structural vegetation parameters than climate control parameters. Improvements are largest for drought-deciduous ecosystems where correlation of predicted versus satellite-observed FPAR and LAI increases from negative to 0.7-0.8. Data assimilation effectively overcomes the cloud- and aerosol-related deficiencies of satellite data sets in tropical areas. Validation with a 49-year-long phenology data set reveals that the temperature-driven start of season (SOS) is light limited in warm years. The model has substantial skill (R = 0.73) to reproduce SOS inter-annual and decadal variability. Predicted SOS shows a higher inter-annual variability with a negative bias of 5-20 days compared to species-level SOS. It is however accurate to within 1-2 days compared to SOS derived from net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measurements at a FLUXNET tower. The model only has weak skill to predict end of season (EOS). Use of remote sensing data assimilation for phenology model development is encouraged but validation should be extended with phenology data sets covering mediterranean, tropical and arctic ecosystems.

  18. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by

  19. On prognostic models, artificial intelligence and censored observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, S S; Hamilton, P W; Hughes, J G; Bell, D A

    2001-03-01

    The development of prognostic models for assisting medical practitioners with decision making is not a trivial task. Models need to possess a number of desirable characteristics and few, if any, current modelling approaches based on statistical or artificial intelligence can produce models that display all these characteristics. The inability of modelling techniques to provide truly useful models has led to interest in these models being purely academic in nature. This in turn has resulted in only a very small percentage of models that have been developed being deployed in practice. On the other hand, new modelling paradigms are being proposed continuously within the machine learning and statistical community and claims, often based on inadequate evaluation, being made on their superiority over traditional modelling methods. We believe that for new modelling approaches to deliver true net benefits over traditional techniques, an evaluation centric approach to their development is essential. In this paper we present such an evaluation centric approach to developing extensions to the basic k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) paradigm. We use standard statistical techniques to enhance the distance metric used and a framework based on evidence theory to obtain a prediction for the target example from the outcome of the retrieved exemplars. We refer to this new k-NN algorithm as Censored k-NN (Ck-NN). This reflects the enhancements made to k-NN that are aimed at providing a means for handling censored observations within k-NN.

  20. Using prognostic models in CLL to personalize approach to clinical care: Are we there yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Alain; Sandoval Sus, Jose; Sleiman, Elsa; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Awan, Farrukh T; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A

    2017-10-28

    Four decades ago, two staging systems were developed to help stratify CLL into different prognostic categories. These systems, the Rai and the Binet staging, depended entirely on abnormal exam findings and evidence of anemia and thrombocytopenia. Better understanding of biologic, genetic, and molecular characteristics of CLL have contributed to better appreciating its clinical heterogeneity. New prognostic models, the GCLLSG prognostic index and the CLL-IPI, emerged. They incorporate biologic and genetic information related to CLL and are capable of predicting survival outcomes and cases anticipated to need therapy earlier in the disease course. Accordingly, these newer models are helping develop better informed surveillance strategies and ultimately tailor treatment intensity according to presence (or lack thereof) of certain prognostic markers. This represents a step towards personalizing care of CLL patients. We anticipate that as more prognostic factors continue to be identified, the GCLLSG prognostic index and CLL-IPI models will undergo further revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Numerical 3-D Modelling of Overflows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben; Nielsen, L.; Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    The present study uses laboratory experiments to evaluate the reliability of two types of numerical models of sewers systems: - 1-dimensional model based on the extended Saint-Venant equation including the term for curvature of the water surface (the so-called Boussinesq approximation) - 2- and 3......-dimensional so-called Volume of Fluid Models (VOF-models) based on the full Navier-Stokes equations (named NS3 and developed by DHI Water & Environment) As a general conclusion, the two numerical models show excellent results when compared with measurements. However, considerable errors occur when...... inappropriate boundary conditions and grid resolutions are chosen. The paper describes the used physical and numerical models and summarises the results....

  2. Numerical modelling of elastic space tethers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansen, Kristian Uldall; Palmer, P. L.; Roberts, R. M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper the importance of the ill-posedness of the classical, non-dissipative massive tether model on an orbiting tether system is studied numerically. The computations document that via the regularisation of bending resistance a more reliable numerical integrator can be produced. Furthermore......, the numerical experiments of an orbiting tether system show that bending may introduce significant forces in some regions of phase space. Finally, numerical evidence for the existence of an almost invariant slow manifold of the singularly perturbed, regularised, non-dissipative massive tether model is provided....... It is also shown that on the slow manifold the dynamics of the satellites are well-approximated by the finite dimensional slack-spring model....

  3. Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Kulikov, Igor; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Hanson, John; Hill, Ashley

    2010-01-01

    Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

  4. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvan, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  5. Comparing numerically exact and modelled static friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krengel Dominik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently there exists no mechanically consistent “numerically exact” implementation of static and dynamic Coulomb friction for general soft particle simulations with arbitrary contact situations in two or three dimension, but only along one dimension. We outline a differential-algebraic equation approach for a “numerically exact” computation of friction in two dimensions and compare its application to the Cundall-Strack model in some test cases.

  6. Numerical methods and modelling for engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Khoury, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This textbook provides a step-by-step approach to numerical methods in engineering modelling. The authors provide a consistent treatment of the topic, from the ground up, to reinforce for students that numerical methods are a set of mathematical modelling tools which allow engineers to represent real-world systems and compute features of these systems with a predictable error rate. Each method presented addresses a specific type of problem, namely root-finding, optimization, integral, derivative, initial value problem, or boundary value problem, and each one encompasses a set of algorithms to solve the problem given some information and to a known error bound. The authors demonstrate that after developing a proper model and understanding of the engineering situation they are working on, engineers can break down a model into a set of specific mathematical problems, and then implement the appropriate numerical methods to solve these problems. Uses a “building-block” approach, starting with simpler mathemati...

  7. Numerical Modeling of Ablation Heat Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Mark E.; Laker, Travis S.; Walker, David T.

    2013-01-01

    A unique numerical method has been developed for solving one-dimensional ablation heat transfer problems. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the method, along with detailed derivations of the governing equations. This methodology supports solutions for traditional ablation modeling including such effects as heat transfer, material decomposition, pyrolysis gas permeation and heat exchange, and thermochemical surface erosion. The numerical scheme utilizes a control-volume approach with a variable grid to account for surface movement. This method directly supports implementation of nontraditional models such as material swelling and mechanical erosion, extending capabilities for modeling complex ablation phenomena. Verifications of the numerical implementation are provided using analytical solutions, code comparisons, and the method of manufactured solutions. These verifications are used to demonstrate solution accuracy and proper error convergence rates. A simple demonstration of a mechanical erosion (spallation) model is also provided to illustrate the unique capabilities of the method.

  8. Numerical Modelling of Jets and Plumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    1993-01-01

    -dimensional integral method to the general 3-dimensional solution of the Navier-Stokes equations. Also the predictive capabilities of the models are discussed. The presentation takes the perspective of civil engineering and covers issues like sewage outfalls and cooling water discharges to the sea.......An overview on numerical models for prediction of the flow and mixing processes in turbulent jets and plumes is given. The overview is structured to follow an increasing complexity in the physical and numerical principles. The various types of models are briefly mentioned, from the one...

  9. On the Hughes model and numerical aspects

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2017-01-05

    We study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [11] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori estimates for the solutions. Second, we study radial solutions and identify a shock formation mechanism. Third, we illustrate the existence of congestion, the breakdown of the model, and the trend to the equilibrium. Finally, we propose a new numerical method and consider two examples.

  10. Amorphous track models: A numerical comparison study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greilich, Steffen; Grzanka, L.; Bassler, N.

    2010-01-01

    We present an open-source code library for amorphous track modelling which is suppose to faciliate the application and numerical comparability as well as serve as a frame-work for the implementation of new models. We show an example of using the library indicating the choice of submodels has...

  11. Advances in numerical modelling of crash dummies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeve, R.; Kant, R.; Margerie, L.

    2001-01-01

    Nowadays virtual testing and prototyping are generally accepted methods in crash safety research and design studies. Validated numerical crash dummy models are necessary tools in these methods. Computer models need to be robust, accurate and CPU efficient, where the balance between accuracy and

  12. A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saxen, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

  13. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  14. A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is...

  15. Some Experiences with Numerical Modelling of Overflows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben; Nielsen, L.; Jensen, B.

    2007-01-01

    and reliable formulas for the estimation of overflows have been derived. Numerical modelling of overflows is significantly more complicated than standard 1-dimensional river or sewer modelling. The problem is usually managed by incorporating the mentioned empirical formulas in the numerical models......Overflows are commonly applied in storm sewer systems to control flow and water surface level. Therefore overflows play a central role in the control of discharges of pollutants from sewer systems to the environment. The basic hydrodynamic principle of an overflow is the so-called critical flow...... across the edge of the overflow. To ensure critical flow across the edge, the upstream flow must be subcritical whereas the downstream flow is either supercritical or a free jet. Experimentally overflows are well studied. Based on laboratory experiments and Froude number scaling, numerous accurate...

  16. Reduced-order modelling numerical homogenization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulle, A; Bai, Y

    2014-08-06

    A general framework to combine numerical homogenization and reduced-order modelling techniques for partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiple scales is described. Numerical homogenization methods are usually efficient to approximate the effective solution of PDEs with multiple scales. However, classical numerical homogenization techniques require the numerical solution of a large number of so-called microproblems to approximate the effective data at selected grid points of the computational domain. Such computations become particularly expensive for high-dimensional, time-dependent or nonlinear problems. In this paper, we explain how numerical homogenization method can benefit from reduced-order modelling techniques that allow one to identify offline and online computational procedures. The effective data are only computed accurately at a carefully selected number of grid points (offline stage) appropriately 'interpolated' in the online stage resulting in an online cost comparable to that of a single-scale solver. The methodology is presented for a class of PDEs with multiple scales, including elliptic, parabolic, wave and nonlinear problems. Numerical examples, including wave propagation in inhomogeneous media and solute transport in unsaturated porous media, illustrate the proposed method. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. From Numeric Models to Granular System Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2015-01-01

    In the era of advanced methodologies and practices of system modeling, we are faced with ever growing challenges of building models of complex systems that are in full rapport with reality. These challenges are multifaceted. Human centricity becomes of paramount relevance in system modeling and because of this models need to be customized and easily interpretable. More and more visibly, experimental data and knowledge of varying quality being directly acquired from experts have to be efficien...

  18. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  19. From Numeric Models to Granular System Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witold Pedrycz

    2015-03-01

    To make this study self-contained, we briefly recall the key concepts of granular computing and demonstrate how this conceptual framework and its algorithmic fundamentals give rise to granular models. We discuss several representative formal setups used in describing and processing information granules including fuzzy sets, rough sets, and interval calculus. Key architectures of models dwell upon relationships among information granules. We demonstrate how information granularity and its optimization can be regarded as an important design asset to be exploited in system modeling and giving rise to granular models. With this regard, an important category of rule-based models along with their granular enrichments is studied in detail.

  20. Multidisciplinary Rehabilitation Treatment of Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain: A Prognostic Model for Its Outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hulst, Marije; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam Marie Rosé; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina Gerarda Maria; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    Objectives: (1) To determine if treatment outcome in chronic low back pain can be predicted by a predefined multivariate prognostic model based on consistent predictors from the literature and (2) to explore the value of potentially prognostic factors further. Methods: Data were derived from a

  1. Systematic review of multivariable prognostic models for mild traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverberg, Noah D; Gardner, Andrew J; Brubacher, Jeffrey R; Panenka, William J; Li, Jun Jian; Iverson, Grant L

    2015-04-15

    Prognostic models can guide clinical management and increase statistical power in clinical trials. The availability and adequacy of prognostic models for mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is uncertain. The present study aimed to (1) identify and evaluate multivariable prognostic models for MTBI, and (2) determine which pre-, peri-, and early post-injury variables have independent prognostic value in the context of multivariable models. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases for English-language MTBI cohort studies from 1970-2013 was supplemented by Web of Science citation and hand searching. This search strategy identified 7789 articles after removing duplicates. Of 182 full-text articles reviewed, 26 met eligibility criteria including (1) prospective inception cohort design, (2) prognostic information collected within 1 month post-injury, and (3) 2+variables combined to predict clinical outcome (e.g., post-concussion syndrome) at least 1 month later. Independent reviewers extracted sample characteristics, study design features, clinical outcome variables, predictor selection methods, and prognostic model discrimination, calibration, and cross-validation. These data elements were synthesized qualitatively. The present review found no multivariable prognostic model that adequately predicts individual patient outcomes from MTBI. Suboptimal methodology limits their reproducibility and clinical usefulness. The most robust prognostic factors in the context of multivariable models were pre-injury mental health and early post-injury neuropsychological functioning. Women and adults with early post-injury anxiety also have worse prognoses. Relative to these factors, the severity of MTBI had little long-term prognostic value. Future prognostic studies should consider a broad range of biopsychosocial predictors in large inception cohorts.

  2. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muhammad Zaka Emad

    2017-07-24

    Jul 24, 2017 ... a safety factor of two is sufficient for CRF to withstand dynamic loading from blasting. In a study by Emad et al [10], the effects of different simulated blast loads have been examined through a numerical model parametric study. It has been shown that CRF failure could be initiated by blast vibrations.

  3. Numerical study of a Projected Hubbard Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K.; Raedt, H. De

    The extension of a generalized Hubbard model, recently introduced by A. Montorsi and M. Rasetti, is studied by means of numerical diagonalization, Quantum Monte Carlo and variational methods. Exact results for lattices up to 4 x 4 are presented. Quantum Monte Carlo simulations reproduce our exact

  4. Numerical modeling of eastern connecticut's visual resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel L. Civco

    1979-01-01

    A numerical model capable of accurately predicting the preference for landscape photographs of selected points in eastern Connecticut is presented. A function of the social attitudes expressed toward thirty-two salient visual landscape features serves as the independent variable in predicting preferences. A technique for objectively assigning adjectives to landscape...

  5. Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of...

  6. Advances in Numerical Modeling of Adhesive Joints

    CERN Document Server

    da Silva, Lucas Filipe Martins

    2012-01-01

    This book deals with the most recent numerical modeling of adhesive joints. Advances in damage mechanics and extended finite element method are described in the context of the Finite Element method with examples of application. The book also introduces the classical continuum mechanics and fracture mechanics approach and discusses the boundary element method and the finite difference method with indication of the cases they are most adapted to. At the moment there a no numerical technique that can solve any problem and the analyst needs to be aware of the limitations involved in each case.

  7. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  8. Plaque Brachytherapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Vision Prognostication Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Niloufer [Department of Radiation Oncology, Taussig Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Khan, Mohammad K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Bena, James [Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Macklis, Roger [Department of Radiation Oncology, Taussig Cancer Center, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States); Singh, Arun D., E-mail: singha@ccf.org [Department of Ophthalmic Oncology, Cole Eye Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To generate a vision prognostication model after plaque brachytherapy for uveal melanoma. Methods and Materials: All patients with primary single ciliary body or choroidal melanoma treated with iodine-125 or ruthenium-106 plaque brachytherapy between January 1, 2005, and June 30, 2010, were included. The primary endpoint was loss of visual acuity. Only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/50 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/50 at the end of the study, and only patients with initial visual acuity better than or equal to 20/200 were used to evaluate visual acuity worse than 20/200 at the end of the study. Factors analyzed were sex, age, cataracts, diabetes, tumor size (basal dimension and apical height), tumor location, and radiation dose to the tumor apex, fovea, and optic disc. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards were used to determine the influence of baseline patient factors on vision loss. Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank analysis) were used to estimate freedom from vision loss. Results: Of 189 patients, 92% (174) were alive as of February 1, 2011. At presentation, visual acuity was better than or equal to 20/50 and better than or equal to 20/200 in 108 and 173 patients, respectively. Of these patients, 44.4% (48) had post-treatment visual acuity of worse than 20/50 and 25.4% (44) had post-treatment visual acuity worse than 20/200. By multivariable analysis, increased age (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.01 [1.00-1.03], P=.05), increase in tumor height (HR of 1.35 [1.22-1.48], P<.001), and a greater total dose to the fovea (HR of 1.01 [1.00-1.01], P<.001) were predictive of vision loss. This information was used to develop a nomogram predictive of vision loss. Conclusions: By providing a means to predict vision loss at 3 years after treatment, our vision prognostication model can be an important tool for patient selection and treatment counseling.

  9. Numerical modelling of foam Couette flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheddadi, I.; Saramito, P.; Raufaste, C.; Marmottant, P.; Graner, F.

    2008-10-01

    A numerical computation based on a tensorial visco-elasto-plastic model based on continuous mechanics is compared to experimental measurements on liquid foams for a bidimensional Couette flow between two glass plates, both in stationary and transient cases. The main features of the model are elasticity up to a plastic yield stress, and viscoelasticity above it. The effect of the friction of the plates is taken into account. The numerical modelling is based on a small set of standard material parameters that are fully characterised. Shear localisation as well as acute transient observations are reproduced and agree with experimental measurements. The plasticity appears to be the fundamental mechanism of the localisation of the flow. Finally, the present approach could be extended from liquid foams to similar materials such as emulsions, colloids or wet granular materials, that exhibit localisation.

  10. Numerical modeling process of embolization arteriovenous malformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherevko, A. A.; Gologush, T. S.; Petrenko, I. A.; Ostapenko, V. V.

    2017-10-01

    Cerebral arteriovenous malformation is a difficult, dangerous, and most frequently encountered vascular failure of development. It consists of vessels of very small diameter, which perform a discharge of blood from the artery to the vein. In this regard it can be adequately modeled using porous medium. Endovascular embolization of arteriovenous malformation is effective treatment of such pathologies. However, the danger of intraoperative rupture during embolization still exists. The purpose is to model this process and build an optimization algorithm for arteriovenous malformation embolization. To study the different embolization variants, the initial-boundary value problems, describing the process of embolization, were solved numerically by using a new modification of CABARET scheme. The essential moments of embolization process were modeled in our numerical experiments. This approach well reproduces the essential features of discontinuous two-phase flows, arising in the embolization problems. It can be used for further study on the process of embolization.

  11. Automated Calibration For Numerical Models Of Riverflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Betsaida; Kopmann, Rebekka; Oladyshkin, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Calibration of numerical models is fundamental since the beginning of all types of hydro system modeling, to approximate the parameters that can mimic the overall system behavior. Thus, an assessment of different deterministic and stochastic optimization methods is undertaken to compare their robustness, computational feasibility, and global search capacity. Also, the uncertainty of the most suitable methods is analyzed. These optimization methods minimize the objective function that comprises synthetic measurements and simulated data. Synthetic measurement data replace the observed data set to guarantee an existing parameter solution. The input data for the objective function derivate from a hydro-morphological dynamics numerical model which represents an 180-degree bend channel. The hydro- morphological numerical model shows a high level of ill-posedness in the mathematical problem. The minimization of the objective function by different candidate methods for optimization indicates a failure in some of the gradient-based methods as Newton Conjugated and BFGS. Others reveal partial convergence, such as Nelder-Mead, Polak und Ribieri, L-BFGS-B, Truncated Newton Conjugated, and Trust-Region Newton Conjugated Gradient. Further ones indicate parameter solutions that range outside the physical limits, such as Levenberg-Marquardt and LeastSquareRoot. Moreover, there is a significant computational demand for genetic optimization methods, such as Differential Evolution and Basin-Hopping, as well as for Brute Force methods. The Deterministic Sequential Least Square Programming and the scholastic Bayes Inference theory methods present the optimal optimization results. keywords: Automated calibration of hydro-morphological dynamic numerical model, Bayesian inference theory, deterministic optimization methods.

  12. Numerical modeling in materials science and engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Rappaz, Michel; Deville, Michel

    2003-01-01

    This book introduces the concepts and methodologies related to the modelling of the complex phenomena occurring in materials processing. After a short reminder of conservation laws and constitutive relationships, the authors introduce the main numerical methods: finite differences, finite volumes and finite elements. These techniques are developed in three main chapters of the book that tackle more specific problems: phase transformation, solid mechanics and fluid flow. The two last chapters treat inverse methods to obtain the boundary conditions or the material properties and stochastic methods for microstructural simulation. This book is intended for undergraduate and graduate students in materials science and engineering, mechanical engineering and physics and for engineering professionals or researchers who want to get acquainted with numerical simulation to model and compute materials processing.

  13. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  14. Numerical Modeling of Ultra Wideband Combined Antennas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorkal'tseva, M. Yu.; Koshelev, V. I.; Petkun, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    With the help of a program we developed, based on the finite difference method in the time domain, we have investigated the characteristics of ultra wideband combined antennas in detail. The antennas were developed to radiate bipolar pulses with durations in the range 0.5-3 ns. Data obtained by numerical modeling are compared with the data of experimental studies on antennas and have been used in the synthesis of electromagnetic pulses with maximum field strength.

  15. The Practicability of a Novel Prognostic Index (PI) Model and Comparison with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) in Stage I-III Breast Cancer Patients Undergoing Surgical Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Jiahuai; Ye, Feng; Li, Shuaijie; Huang, Xiaojia; Yang, Lu; Xiao, Xiangsheng; Xie, Xiaoming

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated the prognostic value of various laboratory parameters in cancer patients. This study was to establish a prognostic index (PI) model for breast cancer patients based on the potential prognostic factors. A retrospective study of 1661 breast cancer patients who underwent surgical treatment between January 2002 and December 2008 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center was conducted. Multivariate analysis (Cox regression model) was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors and a prognostic index (PI) model was devised based on these factors. Survival analyses were used to estimate the prognostic value of PI, and the discriminatory ability of PI was compared with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) by evaluating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC). The mean survival time of all participants was 123.6 months. The preoperative globulin >30.0g/L, triglyceride >1.10mmol/L and fibrinogen >2.83g/L were identified as risk factors for shorter cancer-specific survival. The novel prognostic index model was established and enrolled patients were classified as low- (1168 patients, 70.3%), moderate- (410 patients, 24.7%) and high-risk groups (83 patients, 5.0%), respectively. Compared with the low-risk group, higher risks of poor clinical outcome were indicated in the moderate-risk group [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.513, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.169-1.959, p = 0.002] and high-risk group (HR: 2.481, 95%CI: 1.653-3.724, p< 0.001). The prognostic index based on three laboratory parameters was a novel and practicable prognostic tool. It may serve as complement to help predict postoperative survival in breast cancer patients.

  16. Avoiding numerical pitfalls in social force models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köster, Gerta; Treml, Franz; Gödel, Marion

    2013-06-01

    The social force model of Helbing and Molnár is one of the best known approaches to simulate pedestrian motion, a collective phenomenon with nonlinear dynamics. It is based on the idea that the Newtonian laws of motion mostly carry over to pedestrian motion so that human trajectories can be computed by solving a set of ordinary differential equations for velocity and acceleration. The beauty and simplicity of this ansatz are strong reasons for its wide spread. However, the numerical implementation is not without pitfalls. Oscillations, collisions, and instabilities occur even for very small step sizes. Classic solution ideas from molecular dynamics do not apply to the problem because the system is not Hamiltonian despite its source of inspiration. Looking at the model through the eyes of a mathematician, however, we realize that the right hand side of the differential equation is nondifferentiable and even discontinuous at critical locations. This produces undesirable behavior in the exact solution and, at best, severe loss of accuracy in efficient numerical schemes even in short range simulations. We suggest a very simple mollified version of the social force model that conserves the desired dynamic properties of the original many-body system but elegantly and cost efficiently resolves several of the issues concerning stability and numerical resolution.

  17. Advanced Numerical Model for Irradiated Concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giorla, Alain B. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-03-01

    In this report, we establish a numerical model for concrete exposed to irradiation to address these three critical points. The model accounts for creep in the cement paste and its coupling with damage, temperature and relative humidity. The shift in failure mode with the loading rate is also properly represented. The numerical model for creep has been validated and calibrated against different experiments in the literature [Wittmann, 1970, Le Roy, 1995]. Results from a simplified model are shown to showcase the ability of numerical homogenization to simulate irradiation effects in concrete. In future works, the complete model will be applied to the analysis of the irradiation experiments of Elleuch et al. [1972] and Kelly et al. [1969]. This requires a careful examination of the experimental environmental conditions as in both cases certain critical information are missing, including the relative humidity history. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to provide lower and upper bounds of the concrete expansion under irradiation, and check if the scatter in the simulated results matches the one found in experiments. The numerical and experimental results will be compared in terms of expansion and loss of mechanical stiffness and strength. Both effects should be captured accordingly by the model to validate it. Once the model has been validated on these two experiments, it can be applied to simulate concrete from nuclear power plants. To do so, the materials used in these concrete must be as well characterized as possible. The main parameters required are the mechanical properties of each constituent in the concrete (aggregates, cement paste), namely the elastic modulus, the creep properties, the tensile and compressive strength, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the drying shrinkage. These can be either measured experimentally, estimated from the initial composition in the case of cement paste, or back-calculated from mechanical tests on concrete. If some

  18. Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty represen- tation and management for model-based prognostics method- ologies based on our experience with Kalman...

  19. Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

    2017-01-01

    intracranial tumor volume (CITV) into the ds-GPA model for melanoma augmented its prognostic value. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether or not CITV augments the ds-GPA prognostic scale for melanoma. METHODS: We analyzed the survival pattern of 344 melanoma patients with BM treated with stereotactic radiosurgery...... (SRS) at separate institutions and validated our findings in an independent cohort of 201 patients. The prognostic value of ds-GPA for melanoma was quantitatively compared with and without the addition of CITV using the net reclassification index (NRI > 0) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI...... validated these findings that CITV improves the prognostic utility of melanoma ds-GPA in an independent cohort of 201 melanoma cohort. CONCLUSION: The prognostic value of the ds-GPA scale for melanoma BM is enhanced by the incorporation of CITV....

  20. Numerical modelling of swirling diffusive flames

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parra-Santos Teresa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Computational Fluid Dynamics has been used to study the mixing and combustion of two confined jets whose setup and operating conditions are those of the benchmark of Roback and Johnson. Numerical model solves 3D transient Navier Stokes for turbulent and reactive flows. Averaged velocity profiles using RNG swirl dominated k-epsilon model have been validated with experimental measurements from other sources for the non reactive case. The combustion model is Probability Density Function. Bearing in mind the annular jet has swirl number over 0.5, a vortex breakdown appears in the axis of the burner. Besides, the sudden expansion with a ratio of 2 in diameter between nozzle exits and the test chamber produces the boundary layer separation with the corresponding torus shape recirculation. Contrasting the mixing and combustion models, the last one produces the reduction of the vortex breakdown.

  1. Development and validation of logistic prognostic models by predefined SAS-macros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziegler, Christoph

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In medical decision making about therapies or diagnostic procedures in the treatment of patients the prognoses of the course or of the magnitude of diseases plays a relevant role. Beside of the subjective attitude of the clinician mathematical models can help in providing such prognoses. Such models are mostly multivariate regression models. In the case of a dichotomous outcome the logistic model will be applied as the standard model. In this paper we will describe SAS-macros for the development of such a model, for examination of the prognostic performance, and for model validation. The rational for this developmental approach of a prognostic modelling and the description of the macros can only given briefly in this paper. Much more details are given in. These 14 SAS-macros are a tool for setting up the whole process of deriving a prognostic model. Especially the possibility of validating the model by a standardized software tool gives an opportunity, which is not used in general in published prognostic models. Therefore, this can help to develop new models with good prognostic performance for use in medical applications.

  2. Posttraumatic orbital emphysema: a numerical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skorek, Andrzej; Kłosowski, Paweł; Plichta, Lukasz; Raczyńska, Dorota; Zmuda Trzebiatowski, Marcin; Lemski, Paweł

    2014-01-01

    Orbital emphysema is a common symptom accompanying orbital fracture. The pathomechanism is still not recognized and the usually assumed cause, elevated pressure in the upper airways connected with sneezing or coughing, does not always contribute to the occurrence of this type of fracture. Observations based on the finite model (simulating blowout type fracture) of the deformations of the inferior orbital wall after a strike in its lower rim. Authors created a computer numeric model of the orbit with specified features-thickness and resilience modulus. During simulation an evenly spread 14400 N force was applied to the nodular points in the inferior rim (the maximal value not causing cracking of the outer rim, but only ruptures in the inferior wall). The observation was made from 1 · 10(-3) to 1 · 10(-2) second after a strike. Right after a strike dislocations of the inferior orbital wall toward the maxillary sinus were observed. Afterwards a retrograde wave of the dislocation of the inferior wall toward the orbit was noticed. Overall dislocation amplitude reached about 6 mm. Based on a numeric model of the orbit submitted to a strike in the inferior wall an existence of a retrograde shock wave causing orbital emphysema has been found.

  3. Posttraumatic Orbital Emphysema: A Numerical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Skorek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Orbital emphysema is a common symptom accompanying orbital fracture. The pathomechanism is still not recognized and the usually assumed cause, elevated pressure in the upper airways connected with sneezing or coughing, does not always contribute to the occurrence of this type of fracture. Observations based on the finite model (simulating blowout type fracture of the deformations of the inferior orbital wall after a strike in its lower rim. Authors created a computer numeric model of the orbit with specified features—thickness and resilience modulus. During simulation an evenly spread 14400 N force was applied to the nodular points in the inferior rim (the maximal value not causing cracking of the outer rim, but only ruptures in the inferior wall. The observation was made from 1·10-3 to 1·10-2 second after a strike. Right after a strike dislocations of the inferior orbital wall toward the maxillary sinus were observed. Afterwards a retrograde wave of the dislocation of the inferior wall toward the orbit was noticed. Overall dislocation amplitude reached about 6 mm. Based on a numeric model of the orbit submitted to a strike in the inferior wall an existence of a retrograde shock wave causing orbital emphysema has been found.

  4. Numerical modeling of thin film optical filters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topasna, Daniela M.; Topasna, Gregory A.

    2009-06-01

    Thin films are an important and sometimes essential component in many optical and electrical devices. As part of their studies in optics, students receive a basic grounding in the propagation of light through thin films of various configurations. Knowing how to calculate the transmission and reflection of light of various wavelengths through thin film layers is essential training that students should have. We present exercises where students use Mathcad to numerically model the transmission and reflection of light from various thin film configurations. By varying the number of layers and their optical parameters, students learn how to adjust the transmission curves in order to tune particular filters to suit needed applications.

  5. Numerical modeling of the laser heated solenoid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, C.S.

    1973-01-01

    A numerical model of the interaction of laser radiation with the magnetically confined plasma in an infinitive solenoid was given. An approximate solution which includes the balance of total pressure instead of momentum equation was also developed. Thus, the time step in computing is not bounded by the characteristics given by the Alfven speed. This approximation approach makes the efficient computing of this problem possible. The results of the approximate solution agree very well with those of the exact solution. They have the same final steady state solution.

  6. Fifty years of numerical modeling of baroclinic ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkisyan, A. S.

    2012-02-01

    This paper presents a brief critical analysis of the main historical stages of numerical modeling for the last fifty years. It was a half a century ago that the numerical simulation of an actual baroclinic ocean was initiated by the author and his students [1, 2]. In meteorology, studies on the numerical modeling of a baroclinic atmosphere existed much earlier [21, 22]. Despite this, a similar move in oceanography was met with strong resistance. At that time, there were many studies on the calculation of the total mass transport. The founders of this field, V.B. Shtokman, H. Sverdrup, and W. Munk, were mistaken in believing that they addressed baroclinic models of the ocean. The author preferred works by V. Ekman [12] and I. Sandström and B. Helland-Hansen [19]. A generalization of recent studies made it possible to come to some conclusions on the need to use the level of the free oceanic surface as a basis rather than the function of total mass transport, on the role of the baroclinic β effect (BARBE), on the joint effect of baroclinicity and bottom relief (JEBAR), etc. The author conditionally divides these fifty years into the following three stages. (1) The first stage was 1961-1969, when the author and his students performed almost exclusively diagnostic and adaptation calculations of climatic characteristics. (2) The second stage began with papers by K. Bryan [23] and his students. This is an important and promising stage involving mainly prognostic studies and four-dimensional analysis. The major advances in modeling at this stage (the Gulf Stream separation point [61], the Kuroshio seasonal evolution [63], the formation of the cold intermediate layer in the Black Sea [80], the subsurface countercurrent in the Caspian Sea [25], the realistic four-dimensional analysis of the Kara Sea [60], etc.) were due to high-resolution and/or data assimilation with an adequate period of integration. (3) The third stage began with the activities of international

  7. Objective calibration of numerical weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voudouri, A.; Khain, P.; Carmona, I.; Bellprat, O.; Grazzini, F.; Avgoustoglou, E.; Bettems, J. M.; Kaufmann, P.

    2017-07-01

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models use parameterization schemes for physical processes, which often include free or poorly confined parameters. Model developers normally calibrate the values of these parameters subjectively to improve the agreement of forecasts with available observations, a procedure referred as expert tuning. A practicable objective multi-variate calibration method build on a quadratic meta-model (MM), that has been applied for a regional climate model (RCM) has shown to be at least as good as expert tuning. Based on these results, an approach to implement the methodology to an NWP model is presented in this study. Challenges in transferring the methodology from RCM to NWP are not only restricted to the use of higher resolution and different time scales. The sensitivity of the NWP model quality with respect to the model parameter space has to be clarified, as well as optimize the overall procedure, in terms of required amount of computing resources for the calibration of an NWP model. Three free model parameters affecting mainly turbulence parameterization schemes were originally selected with respect to their influence on the variables associated to daily forecasts such as daily minimum and maximum 2 m temperature as well as 24 h accumulated precipitation. Preliminary results indicate that it is both affordable in terms of computer resources and meaningful in terms of improved forecast quality. In addition, the proposed methodology has the advantage of being a replicable procedure that can be applied when an updated model version is launched and/or customize the same model implementation over different climatological areas.

  8. [Prognostic factors of postoperative delayed gastric emptying after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a predictive model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, H T; Zong, Y; Zhao, Z Q; Wu, L F; Liu, J; Sun, B; Jiang, H C

    2017-05-01

    Objective: To study the prognostic factors of delayed gastric emptying(DGE) after pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD) and construct a prognostic predictive model for clinical application. Methods: Clinic data of 401 consecutive patients who underwent PD between January 2012 and July 2016 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University were retrospectively collected and analyzed. The patients were randomly selected to modeling group(n=299) and validation group(n=102) at a ratio of 3∶1. The data of modeling group were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis for prognostic factors and to construct a prognostic predictive model of DGE after PD. The data of validation group were applied to test the prognostic predictive model. Results: DGE after PD occurred in 35 of 299 patients(11.7%) in the modeling group. The multivariate analysis of the modeling group showed that upper abdominal operation history(χ(2)=6.533, P=0.011), diabetes mellitus(χ(2)=17.872, P=0.000), preoperative hemoglobin predictive model of DGE after PD was constructed based on these factors and successfully tested. The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was 0.761(95%CI: 0.666-0.856) of the modeling group and 0.750(95% CI: 0.577-0.923) of the validation group. Conclusions: Upper abdominal operation history, diabetes mellitus, preoperative hemoglobinmodel is a valid tool to take precautions against DGE after PD.

  9. Numerical Model of the DARHT Accelerating Cell

    CERN Document Server

    Hughes, Thomas P; Genoni, Thomas C; Kang, Mike; Prichard, Benjamin A

    2005-01-01

    The DARHT-2 facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory accelerates a 2 microsecond electron beam using a series of inductive accelerating cells. The cell inductance is provided by large Metglas cores, which are driven by a pulse-forming network. The original cell design was susceptible to electrical breakdown near the outer radius of the cores. We developed a numerical model for the magnetic properties of Metglas over the range of dB/dt (magnetization rate) relevant to DARHT. The model was implemented in a radially-resolved circuit code, and in the LSP* electromagnetic code. LSP simulations showed that the field stress distribution across the outer radius of the cores was highly nonuniform. This was subsequently confirmed in experiments at LBNL. The calculated temporal evolution of the electric field stress inside the cores approximately matches experimental measurements. The cells have been redesigned to greatly reduce the field stresses along the outer radius.

  10. Partial Differential Equations Modeling and Numerical Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Glowinski, Roland

    2008-01-01

    This book is dedicated to Olivier Pironneau. For more than 250 years partial differential equations have been clearly the most important tool available to mankind in order to understand a large variety of phenomena, natural at first and then those originating from human activity and technological development. Mechanics, physics and their engineering applications were the first to benefit from the impact of partial differential equations on modeling and design, but a little less than a century ago the Schrödinger equation was the key opening the door to the application of partial differential equations to quantum chemistry, for small atomic and molecular systems at first, but then for systems of fast growing complexity. Mathematical modeling methods based on partial differential equations form an important part of contemporary science and are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. In this book several experts in this field present their latest results and discuss trends in the numerical analy...

  11. Numerical modeling of materials under extreme conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The book presents twelve state of the art contributions in the field of numerical modeling of materials subjected to large strain, high strain rates, large pressure and high stress triaxialities, organized into two sections. The first part is focused on high strain rate-high pressures such as those occurring in impact dynamics and shock compression related phenomena, dealing with material response identification, advanced modeling incorporating microstructure and damage, stress waves propagation in solids and structures response under impact. The latter part is focused on large strain-low strain rates applications such as those occurring in technological material processing, dealing with microstructure and texture evolution, material response at elevated temperatures, structural behavior under large strain and multi axial state of stress.

  12. A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip

    2014-06-01

    Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. A Framework for Model-Based Diagnostics and Prognostics of Switched-Mode Power Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-02

    consumption, MOSFET voltage, diode reverse voltage, and 47K resistance consumption. ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT...methodology based on an equivalent circuit system simulation model developed from a commercially available switch-mode power supply, and empirical...of an integrated simulation model combining two empirical models in the application of SMPS: a circuit -based SMPS simulation model and the

  14. PROBABILITY MODELS FOR OBTAINING NON-NUMERICAL DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-01-01

    The statistics of objects of non-numerical nature (statistics of non-numerical objects, non-numerical data statistics, non-numeric statistics) is the area of mathematical statistics, devoted to the analysis methods of non-numeric data. Basis of applying the results of mathematical statistics are probabilistic-statistical models of real phenomena and processes, the most important (and often only) which are models for obtaining data. The simplest example of a model for obtaining data is the mod...

  15. A prognostic model for lung adenocarcinoma patient survival with a focus on four miRNAs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xianqiu; An, Zhaoling; Li, Peihui; Liu, Haihua

    2017-09-01

    There is currently no effective biomarker for determining the survival of patients with lung adenocarcinoma. The purpose of the present study was to construct a prognostic survival model using microRNA (miRNA) expression data from patients with lung adenocarcinoma. miRNA data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas, and patients with lung adenocarcinoma were divided into either the training or validation set based on the random allocation principle. The prognostic model focusing on miRNA was constructed, and patients were divided into high-risk or low-risk groups as per the scores, to assess their survival time. The 5-year survival rate from the subgroups within the high- and low-risk groups was assessed. P-values of the prognostic model in the total population, the training set and validation set were 0.0017, 0.01986 and 0.02773, respectively, indicating that the survival time of the lung adenocarcinoma high-risk group was less than that of the low-risk group. Thus, the model had a good assessment effectiveness for the untreated group (P=0.00088) and the Caucasian patient group (P=0.00043). In addition, the model had the best prediction effect for the 5-year survival rate of the Caucasian patient group (AUC=0.629). In conclusion, the prognostic model developed in the present study can be used as an independent prognostic model for patients with lung adenocarcinoma.

  16. Numerical modeling of reinforced foundation pads structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ponomarev Andrey Budimirovich

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The wide use of reinforced foundation pads is complicated because of the absence of technical rules and regulations on design of such structures. It is necessary to investigate the main parameters and regularities of such structures operation under loading. For this aim numerical study of the foundation was carried out, the parameters of which were improved by reinforced foundation pad. The numerical modeling of reinforced foundation pads was carried out in the Plaxis 2D for study of the basic laws and operating parameters and for determination of the application area of these structures. The main goal of this study was to establish the optimal structures of reinforced foundation pads. This goal was achieved by solving the following tasks: determination of the optimal parameters of reinforced foundation pads; study of the stress-strain state of reinforced foundation pads and a soft base; estimation of the load, at which the ultimate settlement is achieved for all types of reinforced foundation pads. It was concluded that the lower reinforcement separating layer allows increasing the loading of the foundation. The typical and optimal reinforcement spacing were specified and analyzed.

  17. Numerical modelling of ion transport in flames

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Jie

    2015-10-20

    This paper presents a modelling framework to compute the diffusivity and mobility of ions in flames. The (n, 6, 4) interaction potential is adopted to model collisions between neutral and charged species. All required parameters in the potential are related to the polarizability of the species pair via semi-empirical formulas, which are derived using the most recently published data or best estimates. The resulting framework permits computation of the transport coefficients of any ion found in a hydrocarbon flame. The accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing its predictions with experimental data on the mobility of selected ions in single-component neutral gases. Based on this analysis, the value of a model constant available in the literature is modified in order to improve the model\\'s predictions. The newly determined ion transport coefficients are used as part of a previously developed numerical approach to compute the distribution of charged species in a freely propagating premixed lean CH4/O2 flame. Since a significant scatter of polarizability data exists in the literature, the effects of changes in polarizability on ion transport properties and the spatial distribution of ions in flames are explored. Our analysis shows that changes in polarizability propagate with decreasing effect from binary transport coefficients to species number densities. We conclude that the chosen polarizability value has a limited effect on the ion distribution in freely propagating flames. We expect that the modelling framework proposed here will benefit future efforts in modelling the effect of external voltages on flames. Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13647830.2015.1090018. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.

  18. Modeling and numerical simulations of the influenced Sznajd model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Farshad Salimi Naneh; Srinivasan, Aravinda Ramakrishnan; Chakraborty, Subhadeep

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the effects of independent nonconformists or influencers on the behavioral dynamic of a population of agents interacting with each other based on the Sznajd model. The system is modeled on a complete graph using the master equation. The acquired equation has been numerically solved. Accuracy of the mathematical model and its corresponding assumptions have been validated by numerical simulations. Regions of initial magnetization have been found from where the system converges to one of two unique steady-state PDFs, depending on the distribution of influencers. The scaling property and entropy of the stationary system in presence of varying level of influence have been presented and discussed.

  19. Numerical modeling of partial discharges parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kartalović Nenad M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent testing of the partial discharges or the use for the diagnosis of insulation condition of high voltage generators, transformers, cables and high voltage equipment develops rapidly. It is a result of the development of electronics, as well as, the development of knowledge about the processes of partial discharges. The aim of this paper is to contribute the better understanding of this phenomenon of partial discharges by consideration of the relevant physical processes in isolation materials and isolation systems. Prebreakdown considers specific processes, and development processes at the local level and their impact on specific isolation material. This approach to the phenomenon of partial discharges needed to allow better take into account relevant discharge parameters as well as better numerical model of partial discharges.

  20. Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-09-01

    This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used.

  1. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  2. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  3. A numerical forecast model for road meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Chunlei

    2017-05-01

    A fine-scale numerical model for road surface parameters prediction (BJ-ROME) is developed based on the Common Land Model. The model is validated using in situ observation data measured by the ROSA road weather stations of Vaisala Company, Finland. BJ-ROME not only takes into account road surface factors, such as imperviousness, relatively low albedo, high heat capacity, and high heat conductivity, but also considers the influence of urban anthropogenic heat, impervious surface evaporation, and urban land-use/land-cover changes. The forecast time span and the update interval of BJ-ROME in vocational operation are 24 and 3 h, respectively. The validation results indicate that BJ-ROME can successfully simulate the diurnal variation of road surface temperature both under clear-sky and rainfall conditions. BJ-ROME can simulate road water and snow depth well if the artificial removing was considered. Road surface energy balance in rainy days is quite different from that in clear-sky conditions. Road evaporation could not be neglected in road surface water cycle research. The results of sensitivity analysis show solar radiation correction coefficient, asphalt depth, and asphalt heat conductivity are important parameters in road interface temperatures simulation. The prediction results could be used as a reference of maintenance decision support system to mitigate the traffic jam and urban water logging especially in large cities.

  4. The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vergouw, D.; Heijmans, M.W.; Peat, G.M.; Kuijpers, T.; Croft, P.R.; de Vet, H.C.W.; van der Horst, H.E.; van der Windt, D.A.W.M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition. Methods: Models were constructed

  5. Large scale experiments as a tool for numerical model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Jens; Hansen, Erik Asp; Fuchs, Jesper

    2003-01-01

    Experimental modelling is an important tool for study of hydrodynamic phenomena. The applicability of experiments can be expanded by the use of numerical models and experiments are important for documentation of the validity of numerical tools. In other cases numerical tools can be applied for im...... hydrodynamic interaction with structures. The examples also show that numerical model development benefits from international co-operation and sharing of high quality results.......Experimental modelling is an important tool for study of hydrodynamic phenomena. The applicability of experiments can be expanded by the use of numerical models and experiments are important for documentation of the validity of numerical tools. In other cases numerical tools can be applied...... for improvement of the reliability of physical model results. This paper demonstrates by examples that numerical modelling benefits in various ways from experimental studies (in large and small laboratory facilities). The examples range from very general hydrodynamic descriptions of wave phenomena to specific...

  6. Melanoma prognostic model using tissue microarrays and genetic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould Rothberg, Bonnie E; Berger, Aaron J; Molinaro, Annette M; Subtil, Antonio; Krauthammer, Michael O; Camp, Robert L; Bradley, William R; Ariyan, Stephan; Kluger, Harriet M; Rimm, David L

    2009-12-01

    As a result of the questionable risk-to-benefit ratio of adjuvant therapies, stage II melanoma is currently managed by observation because available clinicopathologic parameters cannot identify the 20% to 60% of such patients likely to develop metastatic disease. Here, we propose a multimarker molecular prognostic assay that can help triage patients at increased risk of recurrence. Protein expression for 38 candidates relevant to melanoma oncogenesis was evaluated using the automated quantitative analysis (AQUA) method for immunofluorescence-based immunohistochemistry in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens from a cohort of 192 primary melanomas collected during 1959 to 1994. The prognostic assay was built using a genetic algorithm and validated on an independent cohort of 246 serial primary melanomas collected from 1997 to 2004. Multiple iterations of the genetic algorithm yielded a consistent five-marker solution. A favorable prognosis was predicted by ATF2 ln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of more than -0.052, p21(WAF1) nuclear compartment AQUA score of more than 12.98, p16(INK4A) ln(non-nuclear/nuclear AQUA score ratio) of < or = -0.083, beta-catenin total AQUA score of more than 38.68, and fibronectin total AQUA score of < or = 57.93. Primary tumors that met at least four of these five conditions were considered a low-risk group, and those that met three or fewer conditions formed a high-risk group (log-rank P < .0001). Multivariable proportional hazards analysis adjusting for clinicopathologic parameters shows that the high-risk group has significantly reduced survival on both the discovery (hazard ratio = 2.84; 95% CI, 1.46 to 5.49; P = .002) and validation (hazard ratio = 2.72; 95% CI, 1.12 to 6.58; P = .027) cohorts. This multimarker prognostic assay, an independent determinant of melanoma survival, might be beneficial in improving the selection of stage II patients for adjuvant therapy.

  7. Numerical modeling of atoll island hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, R T; Jenson, J W; Olsen, A E

    2009-01-01

    We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.

  8. Numerical Models for Viscoelastic Liquid Atomization Spray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Qian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Atomization spray of non-Newtonian liquid plays a pivotal role in various engineering applications, especially for the energy utilization. To operate spray systems efficiently and well understand the effects of liquid rheological properties on the whole spray process, a comprehensive model using Euler-Lagrangian approaches was established to simulate the evolution of the atomization spray for viscoelastic liquid. Based on the Oldroyd model, the viscoelastic linear dispersion relation was introduced into the primary atomization; an extended viscoelastic version of Taylor analogy breakup (TAB model was proposed; and the coalescence criteria was modified by rheological parameters, such as the relaxation time, the retardation time and the zero shear viscosity. The predicted results are validated with experimental data varying air-liquid mass flow ratio (ALR. Then, numerical calculations are conducted to investigate the characteristics of viscoelastic liquid atomization process. Results showed that the evolutionary trend of droplet mean diameter, Weber number and Ohnesorge number of viscoelastic liquids along with axial direction were qualitatively similar to that of Newtonian liquid. However, the mean size of polymer solution increased more gently than that of water at the downstream of the spray, which was beneficial to stable control of the desirable size in the applications. As concerned the effects of liquid physical properties, the surface tension played an important role in the primary atomization, which indicated the benefit of selecting the solvents with lower surface tension for finer atomization effects, while, for the evolution of atomization spray, larger relaxation time and zero shear viscosity increased droplet Sauter mean diameter (SMD significantly. The zero shear viscosity was effective throughout the jet region, while the effect of relaxation time became weaken at the downstream of the spray field.

  9. Diagnostic and prognostic simulations with a full Stokes model accounting for superimposed ice of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Zwinger

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We present steady state (diagnostic and transient (prognostic simulations of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard performed with the thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes code Elmer. This glacier has an extensive data set of geophysical measurements available spanning several decades, that allow for constraints on model descriptions. Consistent with this data set, we included a simple model accounting for the formation of superimposed ice. Diagnostic results indicated that a dynamic adaptation of the free surface is necessary, to prevent non-physically high velocities in a region of under determined bedrock depths. Observations from ground penetrating radar of the basal thermal state agree very well with model predictions, while the dip angles of isochrones in radar data also match reasonably well with modelled isochrones, despite the numerical deficiencies of estimating ages with a steady state model.

    Prognostic runs for 53 years, using a constant accumulation/ablation pattern starting from the steady state solution obtained from the configuration of the 1977 DEM show that: 1 the unrealistic velocities in the under determined parts of the DEM quickly damp out; 2 the free surface evolution matches well measured elevation changes; 3 the retreat of the glacier under this scenario continues with the glacier tongue in a projection to 2030 being situated ≈500 m behind the position in 1977.

  10. A review of numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Kovács, Attila; Mészáros, Róbert

    2018-02-01

    The field of atmospheric dispersion modeling has evolved together with nuclear risk assessment and emergency response systems. Atmospheric concentration and deposition of radionuclides originating from an unintended release provide the basis of dose estimations and countermeasure strategies. To predict the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides several numerical models are available coupled with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. This work provides a review of the main concepts and different approaches of atmospheric dispersion modeling. Key processes of the atmospheric transport of radionuclides are emission, advection, turbulent diffusion, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and other physical and chemical transformations. A wide range of modeling software are available to simulate these processes with different physical assumptions, numerical approaches and implementation. The most appropriate modeling tool for a specific purpose can be selected based on the spatial scale, the complexity of meteorology, land surface and physical and chemical transformations, also considering the available data and computational resource. For most regulatory and operational applications, offline coupled NWP-dispersion systems are used, either with a local scale Gaussian, or a regional to global scale Eulerian or Lagrangian approach. The dispersion model results show large sensitivity on the accuracy of the coupled NWP model, especially through the description of planetary boundary layer turbulence, deep convection and wet deposition. Improvement of dispersion predictions can be achieved by online coupling of mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric transport models. The 2011 Fukushima event was the first large-scale nuclear accident where real-time prognostic dispersion modeling provided decision support. Dozens of dispersion models with different approaches were used for prognostic and retrospective simulations of the Fukushima release. An unknown

  11. Enhanced Prognostic Model for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Particle Filter State Transition Model Modification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buddhi Arachchige

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on predicting the End of Life and End of Discharge of Lithium ion batteries using a battery capacity fade model and a battery discharge model. The proposed framework will be able to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL and the Remaining charge through capacity fade and discharge models. A particle filter is implemented that estimates the battery’s State of Charge (SOC and State of Life (SOL by utilizing the battery’s physical data such as voltage, temperature, and current measurements. The accuracy of the prognostic framework has been improved by enhancing the particle filter state transition model to incorporate different environmental and loading conditions without retuning the model parameters. The effect of capacity fade in the reduction of the EOD (End of Discharge time with cycling has also been included, integrating both EOL (End of Life and EOD prediction models in order to get more accuracy in the estimations.

  12. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave transformation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Nayak, B.U.; SanilKumar, V.

    A software has been developed for numerical refraction study based on finite amplitude wave theories. Wave attenuation due to shoaling, bottom friction, bottom percolation and viscous dissipation has also been incorporated. The software...

  13. Numerical modeling of tunneling-induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, Antonio Pio; Urpi, Luca

    2017-04-01

    Removal of rock mass in mining environment has been associated since long-time with seismic event of magnitude 3 and above, with the potential to cause damage to the infrastructures or even loss of human life. Although with similarities with mining, relatively unknown up to now are seismic events induced by tunneling. However with modern mechanized tunneling techniques, making possible to digging deeper and longer underground infrastructure, the risk is not negligible. As an example, the excavation of the 57km long Gotthard Base Tunnel has been associated more than hundred seismic events, with the largest one having magnitude of ML 2.4, damaging the tunnel infrastructures. For future scenario of deep geological storage of nuclear waste, tunneling will constitute the primary activity during site construction. Hence, it will be crucial to understand the risk associated with the underground construction operation that can reactivate seismogenic features nearby the future location of emplacement tunnels. Here we present numerical simulation aimed at understanding the potential for inducing seismicity during tunnel construction. The stress changes and their evolution during the excavation are evaluated with a finite element solver (FLAC3d). A strain-softening friction model is then used to simulate the occurrence of a sudden slip on a fault zone (if critical conditions for reactivation are reached). We also present a sensitivity analysis of the potential for inducing different seismic events by different tunnel sizes at varying distance from a nearby failure plane, with the final purpose of evaluating safety of a potential nuclear repository site on the short- and long-term.

  14. Clinical prediction of 5-year survival in systemic sclerosis: validation of a simple prognostic model in EUSTAR centres

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fransen, J.; Popa-Diaconu, D.A.; Hesselstrand, R.; Carreira, P.; Valentini, G.; Beretta, L.; Airo, P.; Inanc, M.; Ullman, S.; Balbir-Gurman, A.; Sierakowski, S.; Allanore, Y.; Czirjak, L.; Riccieri, V.; Giacomelli, R.; Gabrielli, A.; Riemekasten, G.; Matucci-Cerinic, M.; Farge, D.; Hunzelmann, N.; Hoogen, F.H. Van den; Vonk, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. A simple prognostic model to predict 5-year survival in SSc was developed in 1999 in 280 patients, but it has not been validated in other patients. The predictions of a prognostic model are usually

  15. Prognostic models for physical capacity at discharge and 1 year postdischarge from rehabilitation in persons with spinal cord injury

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haisma, J.A.; van der Woude, L.H.V.; Stam, H.J.; Bergen, M.P.; Sluis, T.A.; de Groot, S.; Dallmeijer, A.J.; Bussmann, J.B.J.

    2007-01-01

    Haisma JA, van der Woude LH, Stam HJ, Bergen MP, Sluis TA, de Groot S, Dallmeijer AJ, Bussmann JB. Prognostic models for physical capacity at discharge and 1 year postdischarge from rehabilitation in persons with spinal cord injury. Objective: To develop prognostic models for physical capacity at

  16. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort : prospective multicentre cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: External validation of all published prognostic models in

  17. Numerical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Boumaza

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Transient convection heat transfer is of fundamental interest in many industrial and environmental situations, as well as in electronic devices and security of energy systems. Transient fluid flow problems are among the more difficult to analyze and yet are very often encountered in modern day technology. The main objective of this research project is to carry out a theoretical and numerical analysis of transient convective heat transfer in vertical flows, when the thermal field is due to different kinds of variation, in time and space of some boundary conditions, such as wall temperature or wall heat flux. This is achieved by the development of a mathematical model and its resolution by suitable numerical methods, as well as performing various sensitivity analyses. These objectives are achieved through a theoretical investigation of the effects of wall and fluid axial conduction, physical properties and heat capacity of the pipe wall on the transient downward mixed convection in a circular duct experiencing a sudden change in the applied heat flux on the outside surface of a central zone.

  18. Prognostic Model for Survival in Patients With Early Stage Cervical Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Stalpers, Lukas J. A.; Schilthuis, Marten S.; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P. M.; Buist, Marrije R.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer

  19. Prognostic model for chronic hypertension in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde-Visser, S.D.; Hermes, W.; Twisk, J; Franx, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/157009939; Pampus, M.G.; Koopmans, C.; Mol, B. W J; de Groot, J.C.M.J.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The association between hypertensive pregnancy disorders and cardiovascular disease later in life is well described. In this study we aim to develop a prognostic model from patients characteristics known before, early in, during and after pregnancy to identify women at increased risk of

  20. Prognostic model for survival in patients with early stage cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J; Stalpers, Lukas J A; Schilthuis, Marten S; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P M; Buist, Marrije R

    2011-02-15

    In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer patients and to reconsider grounds for adjuvant treatment. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify the prognostic weight of clinical and histological factors for disease-specific survival (DSS) in 710 consecutive patients who had surgery for early stage cervical cancer (FIGO [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics] stage IA2-IIA). Prognostic scores were derived by converting the regression coefficients for each prognostic marker and used in a score chart. The discriminative capacity was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The 5-year DSS was 92%. Tumor diameter, histological type, lymph node metastasis, depth of stromal invasion, lymph vascular space invasion, and parametrial extension were independently associated with DSS and were included in a Cox regression model. This prognostic model, corrected for the 9% overfit shown by internal validation, showed a fair discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.73). The derived score chart predicting 5-year DSS showed a good discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.85). In patients with early stage cervical cancer, DSS can be predicted with a statistical model. Models, such as that presented here, should be used in clinical trials on the effects of adjuvant treatments in high-risk early cervical cancer patients, both to stratify and to include patients. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

  1. Masonry constructions mechanical models and numerical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lucchesi, Massimiliano; Padovani, Cristina

    2008-01-01

    Numerical methods for the structural analysis of masonry constructions can be of great value in assessing the safety of artistically important masonry buildings and optimizing potential operations of maintenance and strengthening in terms of their cost-effectiveness, architectural impact and static effectiveness. This monograph firstly provides a detailed description of the constitutive equation of masonry-like materials, clearly setting out its most important features. It then goes on to provide a numerical procedure to solve the equilibrium problem of masonry solids. A large portion of the w

  2. The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Vet Henrica CW

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B and Multiple imputation (MI. The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition. Methods Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study. Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included socio-demographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping. Results Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model. Conclusion In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability.

  3. Numerical modelling of collapsing volcanic edifices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Ana; Marques, Fernando; Kaus, Boris

    2017-04-01

    The flanks of Oceanic Volcanic Edifice's (OVEs) can occasionally become unstable. If that occurs, they can deform in two different modes: either slowly along localization failure zones (slumps) or catastrophically as debris avalanches. Yet the physics of this process is incompletely understood, and the role of factors such as the OVE's strength (viscosity, cohesion, friction angle), dimensions, geometry, and existence of weak layers remain to be addressed. Here we perform numerical simulations to study the interplay between viscous and plastic deformation on the gravitational collapse of an OVE (diffuse deformation vs. localization of failure along discrete structures). We focus on the contribution of the edifice's strength parameters for the mode of deformation, as well as on the type of basement. Tests were performed for a large OVE (7.5 km high, 200 km long) and either purely viscous (overall volcano edifice viscosities between 1019-1023 Pa.s), or viscoplastic rheology (within a range of cohesion and friction angle values). Results show that (a) for a strong basement (no slip basal boundary condition), the deformation pattern suggests wide/diffuse "listric" deformation within the volcanic edifice, without the development of discrete plastic failure zones; (b) for a weak basement (free slip basal boundary condition), rapid collapse of the edifice through the propagation of plastic failure structures within the edifice occurs. Tests for a smaller OVE (4.5 km by 30 km) show that failure localization along large-scale listric structures occurs more readily for different combinations of cohesion and friction angles. In these tests, high cohesion values combined with small friction angles lead to focusing of deformation along a narrower band. Tests with a weak layer underlying part of the volcanic edifice base show deformation focused along discrete structures mainly dipping towards the distal sector of the volcano. These tests for a small OVE constitute a promising

  4. Simplified method for numerical modeling of fiber lasers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shtyrina, O V; Yarutkina, I A; Fedoruk, M P

    2014-12-29

    A simplified numerical approach to modeling of dissipative dispersion-managed fiber lasers is examined. We present a new numerical iteration algorithm for finding the periodic solutions of the system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing the intra-cavity dynamics of the dissipative soliton characteristics in dispersion-managed fiber lasers. We demonstrate that results obtained using simplified model are in good agreement with full numerical modeling based on the corresponding partial differential equations.

  5. Numerical time integration for air pollution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G. Verwer (Jan); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem); J.G. Blom (Joke)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDue to the large number of chemical species and the three space dimensions, off-the-shelf stiff ODE integrators are not feasible for the numerical time integration of stiff systems of advection-diffusion-reaction equations [ fracpar{c{t + nabla cdot left( vu{u c right) = nabla cdot left(

  6. 2-dimensional numerical modeling of active magnetic regeneration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Pryds, Nini; Smith, Anders

    2009-01-01

    Various aspects of numerical modeling of Active Magnetic Regeneration (AMR) are presented. Using a 2-dimensional numerical model for solving the unsteady heat transfer equations for the AMR system, a range of physical effects on both idealized and non-idealized AMR are investigated. The modeled...

  7. Modelling And Numerical Analysis Of Assembly System

    OpenAIRE

    Budniak Zbigniew

    2015-01-01

    The present articles covers a concept of the creation and testing of assembly systems with the use of modern CAD and CAE systems on the example of an assembly system designed for joining parts with circular surfaces that are fitted with positive clearance. The numerical investigations were based on the constructed spatial skeleton pattern of the system. The purpose of the simulation tests was to determine the impact of the measurement and angular inaccuracies of all the elements of the assemb...

  8. Numerical Modeling of Tropical Weather Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    Geoph. Biokl., (A)4, 73-86. Holland, G. J., 1982: Tropical cyclone motion: environmental inter- action plus a beta effect Atmospheric Science Paper 348...DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of title Aspen ) 1Appnyvedi in pubbe rleave; S i~stzibutiofl Unlimited ..I. 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of Mmthe d trctOnmd 10 8Als 0...weather systems, numerical weather prediction, monsoon depression, tropical cyclone , easterly wave. gated include the Indian Ocean monsoon depressions

  9. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; Twisk, J W R; van Rhenen, W; Pallesen, S; Bjorvatn, B; Moen, B E; Magerøy, N

    2015-01-01

    To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by adding person-related (age, gender, marital status, children at home, and coping strategies), health-related (BMI, physical activity, smoking, and caffeine and alcohol intake), and work-related (job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, social support at work, and both work-to-family and family-to-work spillover) variables. The updated model was then prospectively validated for predictions at wave 3. 1,557 (77 %) nurses had complete data at wave 2 and 1,342 (65 %) at wave 3. The risk of high SA was under-estimated by the Dutch model, but discrimination between high-risk and low-risk nurses was fair after re-calibration to the Norwegian data. Gender, marital status, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, support at the workplace, and work-to-family spillover were identified as potential predictors of high SA. However, these predictors did not improve the model's discriminative ability, which remained fair at wave 3. The prognostic model correctly identifies 73 % of Norwegian nurses at risk of high SA, although additional predictors are needed before the model can be used to screen working populations for risk of high SA.

  10. Numerical Modeling in Geodynamics: Success, Failure and Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2005-12-01

    A real success in numerical modeling of dynamics of the Earth can be achieved only by multidisciplinary research teams of experts in geodynamics, applied and pure mathematics, and computer science. The success in numerical modeling is based on the following basic, but simple, rules. (i) People need simplicity most, but they understand intricacies best (B. Pasternak, writer). Start from a simple numerical model, which describes basic physical laws by a set of mathematical equations, and move then to a complex model. Never start from a complex model, because you cannot understand the contribution of each term of the equations to the modeled geophysical phenomenon. (ii) Study the numerical methods behind your computer code. Otherwise it becomes difficult to distinguish true and erroneous solutions to the geodynamic problem, especially when your problem is complex enough. (iii) Test your model versus analytical and asymptotic solutions, simple 2D and 3D model examples. Develop benchmark analysis of different numerical codes and compare numerical results with laboratory experiments. Remember that the numerical tool you employ is not perfect, and there are small bugs in every computer code. Therefore the testing is the most important part of your numerical modeling. (iv) Prove (if possible) or learn relevant statements concerning the existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution to the mathematical and discrete problems. Otherwise you can solve an improperly-posed problem, and the results of the modeling will be far from the true solution of your model problem. (v) Try to analyze numerical models of a geological phenomenon using as less as possible tuning model variables. Already two tuning variables give enough possibilities to constrain your model well enough with respect to observations. The data fitting sometimes is quite attractive and can take you far from a principal aim of your numerical modeling: to understand geophysical phenomena. (vi) If the number of

  11. Development of a Numerical Model for Secondary Clarifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Claus; Larsen, Torben; Petersen, Ole

    1991-01-01

    A numerical model of flow and sediment in secondary clarifiers is presented. The numerical model is an attempt to describe the complex and coupled hydraulic and sediment phenomena in secondary clarifiers by describing the turbulent flow field and the transport/dispersion of suspended solids...

  12. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 1: Constant wave climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a numerical study of the non-linear development of alongshore undulations up to fully developed quasi-steady equilibrium. A numerical model which describes the longshore sediment transport along arbitrarily shaped shorelines is applied, based on a spectral wave model, a depth...

  13. Numerical Modelling of Electromagnetic Field in a Tornado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Fiala

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with the numerical model of both the physical and the chemical processes in the tornado. Within the paper, a basic theoretical model and a numerical solution are presented. We prepared numerical models based on the combined finite element method (FEM and the finite volume method (FVM. The model joins the magnetic, electric and current fields, the flow field and a chemical nonlinear ion model. The results were obtained by means of the FEM/FVM as a main application in ANSYS software.

  14. Forecast Jointed Rock Mass Compressive Strength Using a Numerical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Protosenya Anatoliy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of forecasting the strength of the jointed rock mass by numerical modeling of finite element method in ABAQUS was described. The paper presents advantages of this method to solve the problem of determining the mechanical characteristics of jointed rock mass and the basic steps of creating a numerical geomechanical model of jointed rock mass and numerical experiment. Numerical simulation was carried out with jointed rock mass in order to obtain the ratio of strain and stress while loading the numerical model, determining parameters of quantitative assessment of the impact of the discontinuities orientation on the value of the compressive strength, compressive strength anisotropy. The results of the numerical experiment are compared with the data of experimental studies investigations. Innovative materials and structures are analyzed in this paper. The results that were obtained by calculation show qualitative agreement with the results of laboratory experiments of jointed rock mass.

  15. Physics Based Electrolytic Capacitor Degradation Models for Prognostic Studies under Thermal Overstress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai; Biswas, Gautam

    2012-01-01

    Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on safety critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. This makes them good candidates for prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of components or systems based on their current state of health and their anticipated future use and operational conditions. Past experiences show that capacitors tend to degrade and fail faster under high electrical and thermal stress conditions that they are often subjected to during operations. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  16. Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of casting processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    1998-01-01

    The control volume method applied to numerical modelling of castning. Analytical solutions based on the error function.Riemann-temperature. Modelling of release of latent heat with the enthalpy method....

  17. Deterministic combination of numerical and physical coastal wave models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, H.W.; Schäffer, Hemming Andreas; Jakobsen, K.P.

    2007-01-01

    A deterministic combination of numerical and physical models for coastal waves is developed. In the combined model, a Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW is applied for the numerical wave computations. A piston-type 2D or 3D wavemaker and the associated control system with active wave absorption provides...... modes) near the wavemaker are taken into account. With this approach, the data transfer between the two models is thus on a deterministic level with detailed wave information transmitted along the wavemaker....

  18. Modelling And Numerical Analysis Of Assembly System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budniak Zbigniew

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The present articles covers a concept of the creation and testing of assembly systems with the use of modern CAD and CAE systems on the example of an assembly system designed for joining parts with circular surfaces that are fitted with positive clearance. The numerical investigations were based on the constructed spatial skeleton pattern of the system. The purpose of the simulation tests was to determine the impact of the measurement and angular inaccuracies of all the elements of the assembly system as well as the inaccuracy of the positioning of the robot’s drives on the positioning accuracy of the parts joined taking into consideration the conditions of assembly in automatic assembly.

  19. Physical Modeling for Anomaly Diagnostics and Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop developed an innovative, model-driven anomaly diagnostic and fault characterization system for electromechanical actuator (EMA) systems to mitigate...

  20. Numerical model of Ca(OH)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, T.; Peelen, W.; Larbi, J.; Rooij, M. de; Polder, R.

    2010-01-01

    A mathematical model is being developed to describe a repair method in concrete, called cathodic protection (CP). The model is in principle also useful to describe electrodeposition in concrete, e.g. the process of re-precipitation of Ca(OH)2 invoked by an electrical current. In CP, the

  1. Simple Numerical Model of Laminated Glass Beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zemanová

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simple Finite Element model aimed at efficient simulation of layered glass units. The approach is based on considering the independent kinematics of each layer, tied together via Lagrange multipliers. Validation and verification of the resulting model against independent data demonstrate its accuracy, showing its potential for generalization towards more complex problems. 

  2. A Prognostic Model for Development of Profound Shock among Children Presenting with Dengue Shock Syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phung Khanh Lam

    Full Text Available To identify risk factors and develop a prediction model for the development of profound and recurrent shock amongst children presenting with dengue shock syndrome (DSS.We analyzed data from a prospective cohort of children with DSS recruited at the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit of the Hospital for Tropical Disease in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The primary endpoint was "profound DSS", defined as ≥2 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting in compensated shock, or ≥1 recurrent shock episodes (for subjects presenting initially with decompensated/hypotensive shock, and/or requirement for inotropic support. Recurrent shock was evaluated as a secondary endpoint. Risk factors were pre-defined clinical and laboratory variables collected at the time of presentation with shock. Prognostic model development was based on logistic regression and compared to several alternative approaches.The analysis population included 1207 children of whom 222 (18% progressed to "profound DSS" and 433 (36% had recurrent shock. Independent risk factors for both endpoints included younger age, earlier presentation, higher pulse rate, higher temperature, higher haematocrit and, for females, worse hemodynamic status at presentation. The final prognostic model for "profound DSS" showed acceptable discrimination (AUC=0.69 for internal validation and calibration and is presented as a simple score-chart.Several risk factors for development of profound or recurrent shock among children presenting with DSS were identified. The score-chart derived from the prognostic models should improve triage and management of children presenting with DSS in dengue-endemic areas.

  3. Numerical Modelling of Structures with Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahsin Maciej

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The nature of environmental interactions, as well as large dimensions and complex structure of marine offshore objects, make designing, building and operation of these objects a great challenge. This is the reason why a vast majority of investment cases of this type include structural analysis, performed using scaled laboratory models and complemented by extended computer simulations. The present paper focuses on FEM modelling of the offshore wind turbine supporting structure. Then problem is studied using the modal analysis, sensitivity analysis, as well as the design of experiment (DOE and response surface model (RSM methods. The results of modal analysis based simulations were used for assessing the quality of the FEM model against the data measured during the experimental modal analysis of the scaled laboratory model for different support conditions. The sensitivity analysis, in turn, has provided opportunities for assessing the effect of individual FEM model parameters on the dynamic response of the examined supporting structure. The DOE and RSM methods allowed to determine the effect of model parameter changes on the supporting structure response.

  4. Numerical modeling of laser thermal propulsion flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccay, T. D.; Thoenes, J.

    1984-01-01

    An review of the problems associated with modeling laser thermal propulsion flows, a synopsis of the status of such models, and the attributes of a successful model are presented. The continuous gaseous hydrogen laser-supported combustion wave (LSCW) thruster, for which a high-energy laser system (preferably space-based) should exist by the time the propulsion technology is developed, is considered in particular. The model proposed by Raizer (1970) is based on the assumptions of one-dimensional flow at constant pressure with heat conduction as the principal heat transfer mechanism. Consideration is given to subsequent models which account for radiative transfer into the ambient gas; provide a two-dimensional generalization of Raizer's analysis for the subsonic propagation of laser sparks in air; include the effect of forward plasma radiation in a one-dimensional model; and attempt a time-dependent (elliptic) solution of the full Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in a simple axisymmetric thruster. Attention is also given to thruster and nozzle flow models and thermodynamic and transport properties.

  5. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  6. A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wozniak, Matthew C.; Steiner, Allison L.

    2017-11-01

    We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1) a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2) a plant functional type (PFT) land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the

  7. A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Wozniak

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus, evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4, and ragweed (Ambrosia. This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4 over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1 a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2 a plant functional type (PFT land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions

  8. Model Updating and Uncertainty Management for Aircraft Prognostic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal addresses the integration of physics-based damage propagation models with diagnostic measures of current state of health in a mathematically rigorous...

  9. Oceanic Frontal Stability: A Numerical Model,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-11-01

    agrees with the results of Saltzman and Tang (1975) and is supported by limited observation for atmospheric fronts. Formato (1979), in a model which... Formato . The Kasahara et al. atmospheric front model allows for the full nonlinear equations, and the modifications introduced here add dissipation near...similar to that used by Formato . Here, however, the perturbations to the front will not be decomposed into steady state and perturbation components. A

  10. Introduction of prognostic rain in ECHAM5: design and Single Column Model simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Posselt, R.; Lohmann, U.

    2007-01-01

    International audience; Prognostic equations for the rain mass mixing ratio and the rain drop number concentration are introduced into the large-scale cloud microphysics parameterization of the ECHAM5 general circulation model (ECHAM5-PROG). To this end, a rain flux from one level to the next with the appropriate fall speed is introduced. This maintains rain water in the atmosphere to be available for the next time step. Rain formation in ECHAM5-PROG is, therefore, less dependent on the autoc...

  11. The influence of numerical models on determining the drag coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobeš Josef

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with numerical modelling of body aerodynamic drag coefficient in the transition from laminar to turbulent flow regimes, where the selection of a suitable numerical model is problematic. On the basic problem of flow around a simple body – sphere selected computational models are tested. The values obtained by numerical simulations of drag coefficients of each model are compared with the graph of dependency of the drag coefficient vs. Reynolds number for a sphere. Next the dependency of Strouhal number vs. Reynolds number is evaluated, where the vortex shedding frequency values for given speed are obtained numerically and experimentally and then the values are compared for each numerical model and experiment. The aim is to specify trends for the selection of appropriate numerical model for flow around bodies problem in which the precise description of the flow field around the obstacle is used to define the acoustic noise source. Numerical modelling is performed by finite volume method using CFD code.

  12. Numerical model of a three-phase Busbar Trunking System

    OpenAIRE

    Delgado San Román, Fernando; Renedo Estébanez, Carlos Javier; Ortiz Fernández, Alfredo; Fernández Diego, Inmaculada

    2016-01-01

    The thermal behavior of an industrial Low Voltage non-segregated three-phase busduct is analyzed by means of the comparison of a 3D numerical model with experimental results. This model has been carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics, software based on finite element method. The numerical model replicates the short-circuit test, using the same geometry configuration and the boundary conditions of the laboratory in which this assay is carried out. The standard IEC 61439 is applied, both in test...

  13. Bayesian based Prognostic Model for Predictive Maintenance of Offshore Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgarpour, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    The operation and maintenance costs of offshore wind farms can be significantly reduced if existing corrective actions are performed as efficient as possible and if future corrective actions are avoided by performing sufficient preventive actions. In this paper a prognostic model for degradation...... monitoring, fault detection and predictive maintenance of offshore wind components is defined. The diagnostic model defined in this paper is based on degradation, remaining useful lifetime and hybrid inspection threshold models. The defined degradation model is based on an exponential distribution...

  14. Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

  15. Prognostic factors for urachal cancer: a bayesian model-averaging approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, In Kyong; Lee, Joo Yong; Kwon, Jong Kyou; Park, Jae Joon; Cho, Kang Su; Ham, Won Sik; Hong, Sung Joon; Yang, Seung Choul; Choi, Young Deuk

    2014-09-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate prognostic factors and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in a cohort of 41 patients with urachal carcinoma by use of a Bayesian model-averaging approach. Our cohort included 41 patients with urachal carcinoma who underwent extended partial cystectomy, total cystectomy, transurethral resection, chemotherapy, or radiotherapy at a single institute. All patients were classified by both the Sheldon and the Mayo staging systems according to histopathologic reports and preoperative radiologic findings. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were carried out to investigate prognostic factors, and a Bayesian model-averaging approach was performed to confirm the significance of each variable by using posterior probabilities. The mean age of the patients was 49.88 ± 13.80 years and the male-to-female ratio was 24:17. The median follow-up was 5.42 years (interquartile range, 2.8-8.4 years). Five- and 10-year CSS rates were 55.9% and 43.4%, respectively. Lower Sheldon (p=0.004) and Mayo (pcancer-specific mortality in urachal carcinoma. The Mayo staging system might be more effective than the Sheldon staging system. In addition, the multivariate analyses suggested that tumor size may be a prognostic factor for urachal carcinoma.

  16. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...... surface. NS3 is used to simulate the wave run-up due to a regular wave to calculate the maximum wave run-up around a cylinder. The aim of this paper is shown the calculations of NS3 code and compared with the data obtained from the large scale test performed in Grossen Wellenkanal (GWK...

  17. Some Numerical Aspects on Crowd Motion - The Hughes Model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-01-06

    Here, we study a crowd model proposed by R. Hughes in [5] and we describe a numerical approach to solve it. This model comprises a Fokker-Planck equation coupled with an Eikonal equation with Dirichlet or Neumann data. First, we establish a priori estimates for the solution. Second, we study radial solutions and identify a shock formation mechanism. Third, we illustrate the existence of congestion, the breakdown of the model, and the trend to the equilibrium. Finally, we propose a new numerical method and consider two numerical examples.

  18. Numerical modelling of multicomponent LNAPL dissolution kinetics ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    becoming the continuing source of subsurface contamination because of their inherent toxic- ity and partitioning .... dissolution mass transfer rate coefficient when the contaminant is present as single as well as in a mixture ...... port models which can over or under-predict aqueous phase concentrations to a large extent.

  19. Numerical Modeling of Foam Drilling Hydraulics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozcan Baris

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of foam as a drilling fluid was developed to meet a special set of conditions under which other common drilling fluids had failed. Foam drilling is defined as the process of making boreholes by utilizing foam as the circulating fluid. When compared with conventional drilling, underbalanced or foam drilling has several advantages. These advantages include: avoidance of lost circulation problems, minimizing damage to pay zones, higher penetration rates and bit life. Foams are usually characterized by the quality, the ratio of the volume of gas, and the total foam volume. Obtaining dependable pressure profiles for aerated (gasified fluids and foam is more difficult than for single phase fluids, since in the former ones the drilling mud contains a gas phase that is entrained within the fluid system. The primary goal of this study is to expand the knowledge-base of the hydrodynamic phenomena that occur in a foam drilling operation. In order to gain a better understanding of foam drilling operations, a hydrodynamic model is developed and run at different operating conditions. For this purpose, the flow of foam through the drilling system is modeled by invoking the basic principles of continuum mechanics and thermodynamics. The model was designed to allow gas and liquid flow at desired volumetric flow rates through the drillstring and annulus. Parametric studies are conducted in order to identify the most influential variables in the hydrodynamic modeling of foam flow.

  20. Watershed modeling tools and data for prognostic and diagnostic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambel-Leitao, P.; Brito, D.; Neves, R.

    2009-04-01

    When eutrophication is considered an important process to control it can be accomplished reducing nitrogen and phosphorus losses from both point and nonpoint sources and helping to assess the effectiveness of the pollution reduction strategy. HARP-NUT guidelines (Guidelines on Harmonized Quantification and Reporting Procedures for Nutrients) (Borgvang & Selvik, 2000) are presented by OSPAR as the best common quantification and reporting procedures for calculating the reduction of nutrient inputs. In 2000, OSPAR HARP-NUT guidelines on a trial basis. They were intended to serve as a tool for OSPAR Contracting Parties to report, in a harmonized manner, their different commitments, present or future, with regard to nutrients under the OSPAR Convention, in particular the "Strategy to Combat Eutrophication". HARP-NUT Guidelines (Borgvang and Selvik, 2000; Schoumans, 2003) were developed to quantify and report on the individual sources of nitrogen and phosphorus discharges/losses to surface waters (Source Orientated Approach). These results can be compared to nitrogen and phosphorus figures with the total riverine loads measured at downstream monitoring points (Load Orientated Approach), as load reconciliation. Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in river systems represents the connecting link between the "Source Orientated Approach" and the "Load Orientated Approach". Both approaches are necessary for verification purposes and both may be needed for providing the information required for the various commitments. Guidelines 2,3,4,5 are mainly concerned with the sources estimation. They present a set of simple calculations that allow the estimation of the origin of loads. Guideline 6 is a particular case where the application of a model is advised, in order to estimate the sources of nutrients from diffuse sources associated with land use/land cover. The model chosen for this was SWAT (Arnold & Fohrer, 2005) model because it is suggested in the guideline 6 and because it

  1. Numerical modelling of instantaneous plate tectonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minster, J. B.; Haines, E.; Jordan, T. H.; Molnar, P.

    1974-01-01

    Assuming lithospheric plates to be rigid, 68 spreading rates, 62 fracture zones trends, and 106 earthquake slip vectors are systematically inverted to obtain a self-consistent model of instantaneous relative motions for eleven major plates. The inverse problem is linearized and solved iteratively by a maximum-likelihood procedure. Because the uncertainties in the data are small, Gaussian statistics are shown to be adequate. The use of a linear theory permits (1) the calculation of the uncertainties in the various angular velocity vectors caused by uncertainties in the data, and (2) quantitative examination of the distribution of information within the data set. The existence of a self-consistent model satisfying all the data is strong justification of the rigid plate assumption. Slow movement between North and South America is shown to be resolvable.

  2. Analytical and numerical modeling for flexible pipes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Geng

    2011-12-01

    The unbonded flexible pipe of eight layers, in which all the layers except the carcass layer are assumed to have isotropic properties, has been analyzed. Specifically, the carcass layer shows the orthotropic characteristics. The effective elastic moduli of the carcass layer have been developed in terms of the influence of deformation to stiffness. With consideration of the effective elastic moduli, the structure can be properly analyzed. Also the relative movements of tendons and relative displacements of wires in helical armour layer have been investigated. A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element model has been presented to predict the response of flexible pipes under axial force and torque. Further, the friction and contact of interlayer have been considered. Comparison between the finite element model and experimental results obtained in literature has been given and discussed, which might provide practical and technical support for the application of unbonded flexible pipes.

  3. Numerical modeling of the debris flows runout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Francesco

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid debris flows are identified among the most dangerous of all landslides. Due to their destructive potential, the runout length has to be predicted to define the hazardous areas and design safeguarding measures. To this purpose, a continuum model to predict the debris flows mobility is developed. It is based on the well known depth-integrated avalanche model proposed by Savage and Hutter (S&H model to simulate the dry granular materials flows. Conservation of mass and momentum equations, describing the evolving geometry and the depth averaged velocity distribution, are re-written taking into account the effects of the interstitial pressures and the possible variation of mass along the motion due to erosion/deposition processes. Furthermore, the mechanical behaviour of the debris flow is described by a recently developed rheological law, which allows to take into account the dissipative effects of the grain inelastic collisions and friction, simultaneously acting within a ‘shear layer’, typically at the base of the debris flows. The governing PDEs are solved by applying the finite difference method. The analysis of a documented case is finally carried out.

  4. Numerical modeling of the debris flows runout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Francesco; Cesali, Chiara

    2017-06-01

    Rapid debris flows are identified among the most dangerous of all landslides. Due to their destructive potential, the runout length has to be predicted to define the hazardous areas and design safeguarding measures. To this purpose, a continuum model to predict the debris flows mobility is developed. It is based on the well known depth-integrated avalanche model proposed by Savage and Hutter (S&H model) to simulate the dry granular materials flows. Conservation of mass and momentum equations, describing the evolving geometry and the depth averaged velocity distribution, are re-written taking into account the effects of the interstitial pressures and the possible variation of mass along the motion due to erosion/deposition processes. Furthermore, the mechanical behaviour of the debris flow is described by a recently developed rheological law, which allows to take into account the dissipative effects of the grain inelastic collisions and friction, simultaneously acting within a `shear layer', typically at the base of the debris flows. The governing PDEs are solved by applying the finite difference method. The analysis of a documented case is finally carried out.

  5. Fluid pumping: Some exploratory numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ord, A.; Henley, S.

    The concept of fluid pumping evolved from considerations of fluid behaviour within and surrounding faults and shear zones, particularly associated with earthquake initiation and propagation. Further, the interpretation of specific vein textures as originating from a crack-seal mechanism requires precipitation of material during pumping cycles. We explore here a new simple model for fluid pumping initiating within a dilatant, pressure dependant material, and the mechanical consequences of such a model, including the predicted behaviour of a fluid within the SiO2-H2O system. Changes in various properties such as permeability and mechanical properties are allowed according to rules based on defined geological processes. For example, porosity may increase with increasing shear and dilatancy of the rock, and both porosity and permeability decrease when and where the rock ‘seals’ as a result of pressure decrease and the resultant precipitation of SiO2. Histories of any variable may be explored for any part of the model. We may therefore test in a quantitative manner hypotheses for fluid pumping, and the deposition of quartz, and ultimately gold, in a deforming rock mass. Through exploring the feedback links between deformation, fluid flow, chemical transport, thermal transfer, we have the opportunity to test conceptually and quantitatively the various hypotheses for the formation of world class ore deposits.

  6. Introduction of prognostic rain in ECHAM5: design and single column model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Posselt

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Prognostic equations for the rain mass mixing ratio and the rain drop number concentration are introduced into the large-scale cloud microphysics parameterization of the ECHAM5 general circulation model (ECHAM5-PROG. To this end, a rain flux from one level to the next with the appropriate fall speed is introduced. This maintains rain water in the atmosphere to be available for the next time step. Rain formation in ECHAM5-PROG is, therefore, less dependent on the autoconversion rate than the standard ECHAM5 but shifts the emphasis towards the accretion rates in accordance with observations. ECHAM5-PROG is tested and evaluated with Single Column Model (SCM simulations for two cases: the marine stratocumulus study EPIC (October 2001 and the continental mid-latitude ARM Cloud IOP (shallow frontal cloud case – March 2000. In case of heavy precipitation events, the prognostic equations for rain hardly affect the amount and timing of precipitation at the surface in different SCM simulations because heavy rain depends mainly on the large-scale forcing. In case of thin, drizzling clouds (i.e., stratocumulus, surface precipitation is sensitive to the number of sub-time steps used in the prognostic rain scheme. Cloud microphysical quantities, such as cloud liquid and rain water within the atmosphere, are sensitive to the number of sub-time steps in both considered cases. This results from the decreasing autoconversion rate and increasing accretion rate.

  7. Climate feedbacks in a general circulation model incorporating prognostic clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, R.; Fraser, J. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Vic. (Australia); Rotstayn, L. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale (Australia)

    2001-11-01

    This study performs a comprehensive feedback analysis on the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre General Circulation Model, quantifying all important feedbacks operating under an increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The individual feedbacks are analysed in detail, using an offline radiation perturbation method, looking at long- and shortwave components, latitudinal distributions, cloud impacts, non-linearities under 2xCO{sub 2} and 4xCO{sub 2} warmings and at interannual variability. The water vapour feedback is divided into terms due to moisture height and amount changes. The net cloud feedback is separated into terms due to cloud amount, height, water content, water phase, physical thickness and convective cloud fraction. Globally the most important feedbacks were found to be (from strongest positive to strongest negative) those due to water vapour, clouds, surface albedo, lapse rate and surface temperature. For the longwave (LW) response the most important term of the cloud 'optical property' feedbacks is due to the water content. In the shortwave (SW), both water content and water phase changes are important. Cloud amount and height terms are also important for both LW and SW. Feedbacks due to physical cloud thickness and convective cloud fraction are found to be relatively small. All cloud component feedbacks (other than height) produce conflicting LW/SW feedbacks in the model. Furthermore, the optical property and cloud fraction feedbacks are also of opposite sign. The result is that the net cloud feedback is the (relatively small) product of conflicting physical processes. Non-linearities in the feedbacks are found to be relatively small for all but the surface albedo response and some cloud component contributions. The cloud impact on non-cloud feedbacks is also discussed: greatest impact is on the surface albedo, but impact on water vapour feedback is also significant. The analysis method here proves to be a powerful tool for detailing the

  8. A simplified prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Hee; Park, Jae Myung; Han, Seunghoon; Park, Sung Min; Kim, Hee Yeon; Oh, Jung Hwan; Kim, Chang Wook; Yoon, Seung Kew; Choi, Myung-Gyu

    2017-11-24

    Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major cause of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality predictors and develop a new simple prognostic model using easily verified factors at admission in AVB patients. Between January 2009 and May 2015, 333 consecutive patients with AVB were included. A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. We compared the new model to existing models of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores. The 6-week overall mortality rate was 12.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, and the international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model's AUROC was 0.834, which was significantly higher than that of MELD (0.764) or Child-Pugh scores (0.699). Two external validation studies showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently higher than 0.8. Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality in patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Our system can be used to identify high risk AVB patients. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mathematical and numerical foundations of turbulence models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chacón Rebollo, Tomás

    2014-01-01

    With applications to climate, technology, and industry, the modeling and numerical simulation of turbulent flows are rich with history and modern relevance. The complexity of the problems that arise in the study of turbulence requires tools from various scientific disciplines, including mathematics, physics, engineering, and computer science. Authored by two experts in the area with a long history of collaboration, this monograph provides a current, detailed look at several turbulence models from both the theoretical and numerical perspectives. The k-epsilon, large-eddy simulation, and other models are rigorously derived and their performance is analyzed using benchmark simulations for real-world turbulent flows. Mathematical and Numerical Foundations of Turbulence Models and Applications is an ideal reference for students in applied mathematics and engineering, as well as researchers in mathematical and numerical fluid dynamics. It is also a valuable resource for advanced graduate students in fluid dynamics,...

  10. Complexities in coastal sediment transport studies by numerical modelling

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ilangovan, D.; ManiMurali, R.

    Marine environmental studies related to erosion, accretion, pollution transport, dredge disposal, location of seawater intake, effluent disposal, etc., involve sediment transport studies. Numerical models use set of well linked mathematical...

  11. Numerical Modelling on Fate and Transport of Petroleum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    21

    numerical model is developed to simulate the transport of benzene in an ..... unsaturated porous media (Richards 1931; van Genuchten 1980). ... conductivity for unsaturated soil such as Burdine (1953), Brooks and Corey (1964), Mualem.

  12. Numerical modelling of the shoulder for clinical applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Philippe Favre; Jess G. Snedeker; Christian Gerber

    2009-01-01

    Research activity involving numerical models of the shoulder is dramatically increasing, driven by growing rates of injury and the need to better understand shoulder joint pathologies to develop therapeutic strategies...

  13. Preliminary 2D numerical modeling of common granular problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyser, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Granular studies received an increasing interest during the last decade. Many scientific investigations were successfully addressed to acknowledge the ubiquitous behavior of granular matter. We investigate liquid impacts onto granular beds, i.e. the influence of the packing and compaction-dilation transition. However, a physically-based model is still lacking to address complex microscopic features of granular bed response during liquid impacts such as compaction-dilation transition or granular bed uplifts (Wyser et al. in review). We present our preliminary 2D numerical modeling based on the Discrete Element Method (DEM) using nonlinear contact force law (the Hertz-Mindlin model) for disk shape particles. The algorithm is written in C programming language. Our 2D model provides an analytical tool to address granular problems such as i) granular collapses and ii) static granular assembliy problems. This provides a validation framework of our numerical approach by comparing our numerical results with previous laboratory experiments or numerical works. Inspired by the work of Warnett et al. (2014) and Staron & Hinch (2005), we studied i) the axisymetric collapse of granular columns. We addressed the scaling between the initial aspect ratio and the final runout distance. Our numerical results are in good aggreement with the previous studies of Warnett et al. (2014) and Staron & Hinch (2005). ii) Reproducing static problems for regular and randomly stacked particles provides a valid comparison to results of Egholm (2007). Vertical and horizontal stresses within the assembly are quite identical to stresses obtained by Egholm (2007), thus demonstating the consistency of our 2D numerical model. Our 2D numerical model is able to reproduce common granular case studies such as granular collapses or static problems. However, a sufficient small timestep should be used to ensure a good numerical consistency, resulting in higher computational time. The latter becomes critical

  14. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romin Pajouheshnia

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and

  15. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  16. Numerical simulation of asphalt mixtures fracture using continuum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szydłowski, Cezary; Górski, Jarosław; Stienss, Marcin; Smakosz, Łukasz

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers numerical models of fracture processes of semi-circular asphalt mixture specimens subjected to three-point bending. Parameter calibration of the asphalt mixture constitutive models requires advanced, complex experimental test procedures. The highly non-homogeneous material is numerically modelled by a quasi-continuum model. The computational parameters are averaged data of the components, i.e. asphalt, aggregate and the air voids composing the material. The model directly captures random nature of material parameters and aggregate distribution in specimens. Initial results of the analysis are presented here.

  17. Reduced nonlinear prognostic model construction from high-dimensional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Construction of a data-driven model of evolution operator using universal approximating functions can only be statistically justified when the dimension of its phase space is small enough, especially in the case of short time series. At the same time in many applications real-measured data is high-dimensional, e.g. it is space-distributed and multivariate in climate science. Therefore it is necessary to use efficient dimensionality reduction methods which are also able to capture key dynamical properties of the system from observed data. To address this problem we present a Bayesian approach to an evolution operator construction which incorporates two key reduction steps. First, the data is decomposed into a set of certain empirical modes, such as standard empirical orthogonal functions or recently suggested nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) [1], and the reduced space of corresponding principal components (PCs) is obtained. Then, the model of evolution operator for PCs is constructed which maps a number of states in the past to the current state. The second step is to reduce this time-extended space in the past using appropriate decomposition methods. Such a reduction allows us to capture only the most significant spatio-temporal couplings. The functional form of the evolution operator includes separately linear, nonlinear (based on artificial neural networks) and stochastic terms. Explicit separation of the linear term from the nonlinear one allows us to more easily interpret degree of nonlinearity as well as to deal better with smooth PCs which can naturally occur in the decompositions like NDM, as they provide a time scale separation. Results of application of the proposed method to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical

  18. NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF VISCOUS FLOW AROUND A TANKER MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Farkas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, numerical simulation of the viscous flow around a tanker model was carried out utilizing software package STAR-CCM+. A mathematical model based on Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations, k-ε turbulence model and Volume of Fluid method for describing the motion of two-phase media are given. Necessary boundary conditions for the mathematical model and the method of discretization are described as well. The influence of the grid density on the numerical results for the total resistance of tanker model was investigated using three different grid densities. Two different types of k-ε turbulence model are implemented and the deviations in numerical results are highlighted. Results for total resistance of tanker model, obtained by numerical simulations, were validated against experimental results. Experiments were performed in the towing tank of Brodarski Institut in Zagreb for wide range of Froude numbers. It has been shown that for all three grid densities and both types of k-ε turbulence model satisfactory agreement with experimental results can be achieved for whole range of Froude numbers. The scale effects are investigated by Computational Fluid Dynamics study for the same tanker model in three different scales. Numerically calculated scale effects on the wave resistance are reviewed.

  19. Squeal noise in simple numerical brake models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberst, S.; Lai, J. C. S.

    2015-09-01

    Since the early 1920s, automotive disc brake squeal has caused warranty issues and customer dissatisfaction. Despite a good deal of progress achieved, predicting brake squeal propensity is as difficult as ever as not all mechanisms and interactions are known owing to their highly fugitive complex nature. In recent years, research has been focused on the prediction of unstable vibration modes by the complex eigenvalue analysis (CEA) for the mode-coupling type of instability. There has been very limited consideration given to the calculation of the acoustic radiation properties due to friction contact between a pad and a rotor. Recent analyses using a forced response analysis with harmonic contact pressure excitation indicates negative dissipated energy at some pad eigenfrequencies predicted to be stable by the CEA. A transient nonlinear time domain analysis with no external excitation indicates that squeal could develop at these eigenfrequencies. Here, the acoustic radiation characteristics of those pad modes are determined by analysing the acoustic power levels and radiation efficiencies of simplified brake models in the form of a pad rubbing on a plate or on a disc using the acoustic boundary element method based on velocities extracted from the forced response analysis. Results show that unstable pad modes trigger unstable disc vibrations resulting in instantaneous mode squeal similar to those observed experimentally. Changes in the radiation efficiency with pressure variations are smaller than those with friction coefficient variations and are caused by the phase difference of the velocities out-of-plane vibration between the pad and the disc.

  20. A modular approach to numerical human body modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Griotto, G.; Rooij, L. van

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a human body model for a simulated automotive impact scenario must take into account both accurate model response and computational efficiency as key factors. This study presents a "modular numerical human body modeling" approach which allows the creation of a customized human body

  1. Multiphysics Numerical Modeling of a Fin and Tube Heat Exchanger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Shobhana; Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph

    2015-01-01

    In the present research work, a modeling effort to predict the performance of a liquid-gas type fin and tube heat exchanger design is made. Three dimensional (3D) steady state numerical model is developed using commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics based on finite element method (FEM). For the ......In the present research work, a modeling effort to predict the performance of a liquid-gas type fin and tube heat exchanger design is made. Three dimensional (3D) steady state numerical model is developed using commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics based on finite element method (FEM...

  2. Simplified prognostic model for critically ill patients in resource limited settings in South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haniffa, Rashan; Mukaka, Mavuto; Munasinghe, Sithum Bandara; De Silva, Ambepitiyawaduge Pubudu; Jayasinghe, Kosala Saroj Amarasiri; Beane, Abi; de Keizer, Nicolette; Dondorp, Arjen M

    2017-10-17

    Current critical care prognostic models are predominantly developed in high-income countries (HICs) and may not be feasible in intensive care units (ICUs) in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Existing prognostic models cannot be applied without validation in LMICs as the different disease profiles, resource availability, and heterogeneity of the population may limit the transferability of such scores. A major shortcoming in using such models in LMICs is the unavailability of required measurements. This study proposes a simplified critical care prognostic model for use at the time of ICU admission. This was a prospective study of 3855 patients admitted to 21 ICUs from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka who were aged 16 years and over and followed to ICU discharge. Variables captured included patient age, admission characteristics, clinical assessments, laboratory investigations, and treatment measures. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop three models for ICU mortality prediction: model 1 with clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables; model 2 with clinical and laboratory variables; and model 3, a purely clinical model. Internal validation based on bootstrapping (1000 samples) was used to calculate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-Statistic; higher values indicate poorer calibration). Comparison was made with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II models. Model 1 recorded the respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), blood urea, haemoglobin, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use on ICU admission. Model 2, named TropICS (Tropical Intensive Care Score), included emergency surgery, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, GCS, blood urea, and haemoglobin. Model 3 included respiratory rate, emergency surgery, and GCS. AUC was 0.818 (95% confidence

  3. A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

    2012-05-01

    Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

  4. Prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Antoine; Mallett, Susan; Daoud-Elias, Marie; Poggi, Jean-Noël; Clarke, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Objective To review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature. Eligibility criteria Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE. Data extraction Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers. Data analysis Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy. Results We included 71 studies (44 298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5–1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20–29% of event rate). Conclusions We provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies. PMID

  5. Numerical Modeling and Mechanical Analysis of Flexible Risers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available ABAQUS is used to create a detailed finite element model for a 10-layer unbonded flexible riser to simulate the riser’s mechanical behavior under three load conditions: tension force and internal and external pressure. It presents a technique to create detailed finite element model and to analyze flexible risers. In FEM model, all layers are modeled separately with contact interfaces; interaction between steel trips in certain layers has been considered as well. FEM model considering contact interaction, geometric nonlinearity, and friction has been employed to accurately simulate the structural behavior of riser. The model includes the main features of the riser geometry with very little simplifying assumptions. The model was solved using a fully explicit time-integration scheme implemented in a parallel environment on an eight-processor cluster and 24 G memory computer. There is a very good agreement obtained from numerical and analytical comparisons, which validates the use of numerical model here. The results from the numerical simulation show that the numerical model takes into account various details of the riser. It has been shown that the detailed finite element model can be used to predict riser’s mechanics behavior under various load cases and bound conditions.

  6. Numerical modeling of nitrogen oxide emission and experimental verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szecowka Lech

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of nitrogen reduction in combustion process with application of primary method are presented in paper. The reduction of NOx emission, by the recirculation of combustion gasses, staging of fuel and of air was investigated, and than the reduction of NOx emission by simultaneous usage of the mentioned above primary method with pulsatory disturbances.The investigations contain numerical modeling of NOx reduction and experimental verification of obtained numerical calculation results.

  7. Numerical Modeling of Electromagnetic Field Effects on the Human Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Psenakova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Interactions of electromagnetic field (EMF with environment and with tissue of human beings are still under discussion and many research teams are investigating it. The human simulation models are used for biomedical research in a lot of areas, where it is advantage to replace real human body (tissue by the numerical model. Biological effects of EMF are one of the areas, where numerical models are used with many advantages. On the other side, this research is very specific and it is always quite hard to simulate realistic human tissue. This paper deals with different possibilities of numerical modelling of electromagnetic field effects on the human body (especially calculation of the specific absorption rate (SAR distribution in human body and thermal effect.

  8. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the description of a 2-dimensional numerical model constructed for the simulation of beach evolution under the action of wind waves only over the arbitrary land and sea topographies around existing coastal structures and formations. The developed beach evolution numerical model...... on the gradients of sediment transport rates in cross-shore and longshore directions. The developed models are applied successfully to the SANDYDUCK field experiments and to some conceptual benchmark cases including simulation of rip currents around beach cusps, beach evolution around a single shore perpendicular...

  9. NUMERICAL MODELLING OF DISCONTINUOUS ROCK MASS IN THE PLASTIC DOMAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biljana kovačević-Zelić

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the problem of discontinuous ruck material modelling within the framework of theory of plasticity. The applicability of two models, i.e. Mohr-Coulomb's ideal plasticity and plastic anisotropy (ubiquitous joint model, is examined. Numerical analyses were performed with FLAC - finite difference code. The comparision of above mentioned constitutive models is made through the demonstrated mechanical behaviour in the direct shear test (the paper is published in Croatian.

  10. Numerical investigation of algebraic oceanic turbulent mixing-layer models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacón-Rebollo, T.; Gómez-Mármol, M.; Rubino, S.

    2013-11-01

    In this paper we investigate the finite-time and asymptotic behaviour of algebraic turbulent mixing-layer models by numerical simulation. We compare the performances given by three different settings of the eddy viscosity. We consider Richardson number-based vertical eddy viscosity models. Two of these are classical algebraic turbulence models usually used in numerical simulations of global oceanic circulation, i.e. the Pacanowski-Philander and the Gent models, while the other one is a more recent model (Bennis et al., 2010) proposed to prevent numerical instabilities generated by physically unstable configurations. The numerical schemes are based on the standard finite element method. We perform some numerical tests for relatively large deviations of realistic initial conditions provided by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. These initial conditions correspond to states close to mixing-layer profiles, measured on the Equatorial Pacific region called the West-Pacific Warm Pool. We conclude that mixing-layer profiles could be considered as kinds of "absorbing configurations" in finite time that asymptotically evolve to steady states under the application of negative surface energy fluxes.

  11. Crustal growth at active continental margins: Numerical modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogt, Katharina|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370618947; Gerya, Taras; Castro, Antonio

    The dynamics and melt sources for crustal growth at active continental margins are analyzed by using a 2D coupled petrological–thermomechanical numerical model of an oceanic-continental subduction zone. This model includes spontaneous slab retreat and bending, dehydration of subducted crust, aqueous

  12. Numerical human model for impact and seating comfort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoof, J.F.A.M. van; Lange, R. de; Verver, M.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed numerical model of the human body that can be used to evaluate both safety and comfort aspects of vehicle interiors. The model is based on a combination of rigid body and finite element techniques to provide an optimal combination of computational efficiency and

  13. A Hidden Semi-Markov Model with Duration-Dependent State Transition Probabilities for Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Realistic prognostic tools are essential for effective condition-based maintenance systems. In this paper, a Duration-Dependent Hidden Semi-Markov Model (DD-HSMM is proposed, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional Hidden Markov Models (HMM, including the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM: (1 it allows explicit modeling of state transition probabilities between the states; (2 it relaxes observations’ independence assumption by accommodating a connection between consecutive observations; and (3 it does not follow the unrealistic Markov chain’s memoryless assumption and therefore it provides a more powerful modeling and analysis capability for real world problems. To facilitate the computation of the proposed DD-HSMM methodology, new forward-backward algorithm is developed. The demonstration and evaluation of the proposed methodology is carried out through a case study. The experimental results show that the DD-HSMM methodology is effective for equipment health monitoring and management.

  14. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-08-30

     To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Rapid installation of numerical models in multiple parent codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brannon, R.M.; Wong, M.K.

    1996-10-01

    A set of``model interface guidelines``, called MIG, is offered as a means to more rapidly install numerical models (such as stress-strain laws) into any parent code (hydrocode, finite element code, etc.) without having to modify the model subroutines. The model developer (who creates the model package in compliance with the guidelines) specifies the model`s input and storage requirements in a standardized way. For portability, database management (such as saving user inputs and field variables) is handled by the parent code. To date, NUG has proved viable in beta installations of several diverse models in vectorized and parallel codes written in different computer languages. A NUG-compliant model can be installed in different codes without modifying the model`s subroutines. By maintaining one model for many codes, MIG facilitates code-to-code comparisons and reduces duplication of effort potentially reducing the cost of installing and sharing models.

  16. Exercises in 80223 Numerical Modelling of Thermal Processing of Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Jens Ole

    Processing of Materials'. The original copy is kept in the archives of TM on the ground floor of building 425. A copy of the exercise book can be made available by contacting the secretary on the ground floor of building 425. Please give the following number: TM 00.01 (TM = Thermal processing of Materials)......This exercise book contains exercise instructions for the 7 compulsory exercises (Exercise 1-7) and the final exercise (Exercise 8) in the course 80223 'Numerical Modelling of Thermal Processing of Materials'. The exercise book also contains written program examples in 'C' and 'Pascal'. Finally......, guidelines are given on how to write the report which has to be handed in at the end of the course. The exercise book is a updated version of the exercise book from 1999. The exercise book is used in the course 42224 'Numerical Process Modelling' which earlier was called 80223 'Numerical Modelling of Thermal...

  17. Numerical modelling of structural controls on fluid flow and mineralization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhua Zhang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of a set of numerical models focussing on structural controls on hydrothermal mineralization. We first give an overview of natural phenomena of structurally-controlled ore formation and the background theory and mechanisms for such controls. We then provide the results of a group of simple 2D numerical models validated through comparison with Cu-vein structure observed near the Shilu Copper deposit (Yangchun, Guangdong Province, China and finally a case study of 3D numerical modelling applied to the Hodgkinson Province in North Queensland (Australia. Two modelling approaches, discrete deformation modelling and continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow modelling, are involved. The 2D model-derived patterns are remarkably consistent with the Cu-vein structure from the Shilu Copper deposit, and show that both modelling approaches can realistically simulate the mechanical behaviours of shear and dilatant fractures. The continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow model indicates that pattern of the Cu-veins near the Shilu deposit is the result of shear strain localization, development of dilation and fluid focussing into the dilatant fracture segments. The 3D case-study models (with deformation and fluid flow coupling on the Hodgkinson Province generated a number of potential gold mineralization targets.

  18. NUMERICAL MODELLING OF DISCONTINUOUS ROCK MASS IN THE ELASTIC DOMAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biljana Kovačević-Zelić

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Constitutive relationships of rock materials are an important component of the numerical modelling, it is not possible to find a generally acceptable constitutive law for rock materials, because of their complex nature. In this paper, the applicability of some models within the framework of theory of elasticity are examined. The analyses are carried out using next models: isotropic and transversely isotropic model, and 'equivalent' material approach The parametric study is also made to examine the influence of discontinuities on the parameters of the equivalent materials the comparison of above mentioned models is made through numerical modelling of the direct shear test. The analysis were performed with finite difference code FLAC (the paper is published in Croatian.

  19. Analytical & Numerical Modelings of Elliptical Superconducting Filament Magnetization

    CERN Document Server

    Bottura, L; Bouillault, F; Devred, Arnaud

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the two-dimensional computation of magnetization in an elliptic superconducting filament by using numerical and analytical methods. The numerical results are obtained from the finite element method and by using Bean's model. This model is well adapted for Low Tc superconductor studies. We observe the effect of the axis ratio and of the field angle to the magnetic moment per unit length at saturation, and also to the cycle of magnetization. Moreover, the current density and the distribution of the electromagnetic fields in the superconducting filament are also studied.

  20. Numerical modeling of the strain of elastic rubber elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskvichev, E. N.; Porokhin, A. V.; Shcherbakov, I. V.

    2017-11-01

    A comparative analysis of the results of experimental investigation of mechanical behavior of the rubber sample during biaxial compression testing and numerical simulation results obtained by the finite element method was carried out to determine the correctness of the model applied in the engineering calculations of elastic structural elements made of the rubber. The governing equation represents the five-parameter Mooney-Rivlin model with the constants determined from experimental data. The investigation results showed that these constants reliably describe the mechanical behavior of the material under consideration. The divergence of experimental and numerical results does not exceed 15%.

  1. Numerical Models of Sewage Dispersion and Statistica Bathing Water Standards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Ole; Larsen, Torben

    1991-01-01

    As bathing water standards usually are founded in statistical methods, the numerical models used in outfall design should reflect this. A statistical approach, where stochastic variations in source strength and bacterial disappearance is incorporated into a numerical dilution model is presented....... It is demonstrated for a specific outfall how the method can be used to estimate the bathing water quality. The ambition with the paper has been to demonstrate how stochastic variations in a simple manner can be included in the analysis of water quality....

  2. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  3. Uncertainty evaluation in numerical modeling of complex devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, X.; Monebhurrun, V.

    2014-10-01

    Numerical simulation is an efficient tool for exploring and understanding the physics of complex devices, e.g. mobile phones. For meaningful results, it is important to evaluate the uncertainty of the numerical simulation. Uncertainty quantification in specific absorption rate (SAR) calculation using a full computer-aided design (CAD) mobile phone model is a challenging task. Since a typical SAR numerical simulation is computationally expensive, the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method proves inadequate. The unscented transformation (UT) is an alternative and numerically efficient method herein investigated to evaluate the uncertainty in the SAR calculation using the realistic models of two commercially available mobile phones. The electromagnetic simulation process is modeled as a nonlinear mapping with the uncertainty in the inputs e.g. the relative permittivity values of the mobile phone material properties, inducing an uncertainty in the output, e.g. the peak spatial-average SAR value.The numerical simulation results demonstrate that UT may be a potential candidate for the uncertainty quantification in SAR calculations since only a few simulations are necessary to obtain results similar to those obtained after hundreds or thousands of MC simulations.

  4. Feedbacks Between Numerical and Analytical Models in Hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnik, V. A.; Cardenas, M. B.; Toundykov, D.; Cohn, S.

    2012-12-01

    Hydrogeology is a relatively young discipline which combines elements of Earth science and engineering. Mature fundamental disciplines (e.g., physics, chemistry, fluid mechanics) have centuries-long history of mathematical modeling even prior to discovery of Darcy's law. Thus, in hydrogeology, relatively few classic analytical models (such those by Theis, Polubarinova-Kochina, Philip, Toth, Henry, Dagan, Neuman) were developed by the early 1970's. The advent of computers and practical demands refocused mathematical models towards numerical techniques. With more diverse but less mathematically-oriented training, most hydrogeologists shifted from analytical methods to use of standardized computational software. Spatial variability in internal properties and external boundary conditions and geometry, and the added complexity of chemical and biological processes will remain major challenges for analytical modeling. Possibly, analytical techniques will play a subordinate role to numerical approaches in many applications. On the other hand, the rise of analytical element modeling of groundwater flow is a strong alternative to numerical models when data demand and computational efficiency is considered. The hallmark of analytical models - transparency and accuracy - will remain indispensable for scientific exploration of complex phenomena and for benchmarking numerical models. Therefore, there will always be feedbacks and complementarities between numerical and analytical techniques, as well as a certain ideological schism among various views to modeling. We illustrate the idea of feedbacks by reviewing evolution of Joszef Toth's analytical model of gravity driven flow systems. Toth's (1963) approach was to reduce the flow domain to a rectangle which allowed for closed-form solution of the governing equations. Succeeding numerical finite-element models by Freeze and Witherspoon (1966-1968) explored the effects of geometry and heterogeneity on regional groundwater flow

  5. Geoinformational prognostic model of mudflows hazard and mudflows risk for the territory of Ukrainian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chepurna, Tetiana B.; Kuzmenko, Eduard D.; Chepurnyj, Igor V.

    2017-06-01

    The article is devoted to the geological issue of the space-time regional prognostication of mudflow hazard. The methodology of space-time prediction of mudflows hazard by creating GIS predictive model has been developed. Using GIS technologies the relevant and representative complex of significant influence of spatial and temporal factors, adjusted to use in the regional prediction of mudflows hazard, were selected. Geological, geomorphological, technological, climatic, and landscape factors have been selected as spatial mudflow factors. Spatial analysis is based on detection of a regular connection of spatial factor characteristics with spatial distribution of the mudflow sites. The function of a standard complex spatial index (SCSI) of the probability of the mudflow sites distribution has been calculated. The temporal, long-term prediction of the mudflows activity was based on the hypothesis of the regular reiteration of natural processes. Heliophysical, seismic, meteorological, and hydrogeological factors have been selected as time mudflow factors. The function of a complex index of long standing mudflow activity (CIMA) has been calculated. The prognostic geoinformational model of mudflow hazard up to 2020 year, a year of the next peak of the mudflows activity, has been created. Mudflow risks have been counted and carogram of mudflow risk assessment within the limits of administrative-territorial units has been built for 2020 year.

  6. Numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan Zhenghua

    1999-01-01

    Theoretical models have been developed to address several important aspects of numerical modeling of turbulent combustion and flame spread. The developed models include a pyrolysis model for charring and non-charring solid materials, a fast narrow band radiation property evaluation model (FASTNB) and a turbulence model for buoyant flow and flame. In the pyrolysis model, a completely new algorithm has been proposed, where a moving dual mesh concept was developed and implemented. With this new concept, it provides proper spatial resolution for both temperature and density and automatically considers the regression of the surface of the non-charring solid material during its pyrolysis. It is simple, very efficient and applicable to both charring and non-charring materials. FASTNB speeds up significantly the evaluation of narrow band spectral radiation properties and thus provides a potential of applying narrow band model in numerical simulations of practical turbulent combustion. The turbulence model was developed to improve the consideration of buoyancy effect on turbulence and turbulent transport. It was found to be simple, promising and numerically stable. It has been tested against both plane and axisymmetric thermal plumes and an axisymmetric buoyant diffusion flame. When compared with the widely used standard buoyancy-modified {kappa} - {epsilon} model, it gives significant improvement on numerical results. These developed models have been fully incorporated into CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code and coupled with other CFD sub-models, including the DT (Discrete Transfer) radiation model, EDC (Eddy Dissipation Concept) combustion model, flamelet combustion model, various soot models and transpired wall function. Comprehensive numerical simulations have been carried out to study soot formation and oxidation in turbulent buoyant diffusion flames, flame heat transfer and flame spread in fires. The gas temperature and velocity, soot volume fraction, wall

  7. Oscillation characteristics of endodontic files: numerical model and its validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhaagen, Bram; Lea, Simon C; de Bruin, Gerrit J; van der Sluis, Luc W M; Walmsley, A Damien; Versluis, Michel

    2012-11-01

    During a root canal treatment, an antimicrobial fluid is injected into the root canal to eradicate all bacteria from the root canal system. Agitation of the fluid using an ultrasonically vibrating miniature file results in a significant improvement in the cleaning efficacy over conventional syringe irrigation. Numerical analysis of the oscillation characteristics of the file, modeled as a tapered, driven rod, shows a sinusoidal wave pattern with an increase in amplitude and decrease in wavelength toward the free end of the file. Measurements of the file oscillation with a scanning laser vibrometer show good agreement with the numerical simulation. The numerical model of endodontic file oscillation has the potential for predicting the oscillation pattern and fracture likeliness of various file types and the acoustic streaming they induce during passive ultrasonic irrigation.

  8. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J.; Nieminen, R. [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  9. An improved numerical model for wave rotor design and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxson, Daniel E.; Wilson, Jack

    1993-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed which can predict both the unsteady flows within a wave rotor and the steady averaged flows in the ports. The model is based on the assumptions of one-dimensional, unsteady, and perfect gas flow. Besides the dominant wave behavior, it is also capable of predicting the effects of finite tube opening time, leakage from the tube ends, and viscosity. The relative simplicity of the model makes it useful for design, optimization, and analysis of wave rotor cycles for any application. This paper discusses some details of the model and presents comparisons between the model and two laboratory wave rotor experiments.

  10. Modified Numerical Simulation Model of Blood Flow in Bend.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X; Zhou, X; Hao, X; Sang, X

    2015-12-01

    The numerical simulation model of blood flow in bend is studied in this paper. The curvature modification is conducted for the blood flow model in bend to obtain the modified blood flow model in bend. The modified model is verified by U tube. By comparing the simulation results with the experimental results obtained by measuring the flow data in U tube, it was found that the modified blood flow model in bend can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of blood flow data affected by the curvature effect.

  11. A Numerical Study of Reaction Kinetics Model of Polymerization In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model which is a system of partial differential equations is analyzed numerically using the finite difference scheme to obtain results for1, 2, 3, 4, 10, 100, 1000 (where p is the order of reaction). Keywords: Frontal polymerization, Material diffusion. Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics, Volume 19 ...

  12. Numerical modelling of groundwater flow to understand the impacts ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    c Indian Academy of Sciences. DOI 10.1007/s12040-017-0799-x. Numerical modelling of groundwater flow to understand the impacts of pumping on arsenic migration in the aquifer of North Bengal Plain. P K Sikdar∗ and Surajit Chakraborty. Department of Environment Management, Indian Institute of Social Welfare and.

  13. Numerical modelling of groundwater flow to understand the impacts ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 2. Numerical modelling of groundwater flow to understand the impacts of pumping on arsenic migration in the aquifer of North Bengal Plain. P K Sikdar Surajit Chakraborty. Volume 126 Issue 2 March 2017 Article ID 29 ...

  14. Numerical Modelling Study of Behaviour of Consolidated Strata ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerical Modelling Study of Behaviour of Consolidated Strata Around Tunnel. ... Science, Technology and Arts Research Journal ... In this paper an attempt is made to assess the behavior of the tunnel in given environment and the associated displacements due to tunneling in a highly consolidated soil/rock mass with two ...

  15. Development of numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. Dobson

    2004-08-31

    This report describes the methods used to develop numerical grids of the unsaturated hydrogeologic system beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Numerical grid generation is an integral part of the development of the unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport model, a complex, three-dimensional (3-D) model of Yucca Mountain. This revision contains changes made to improve the clarity of the description of grid generation. The numerical grids, developed using current geologic, hydrogeologic, and mineralogic data, provide the necessary framework to: (1) develop calibrated hydrogeologic property sets and flow fields, (2) test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport, and (3) predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions. The technical scope, content, and management for the current revision of this report are described in the planning document ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654], Section 2). Grids generated and documented in this report supersede those documented in Revision 00 of this report, ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (BSC 2001 [DIRS 159356]). The grids presented in this report are the same as those developed in Revision 01 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 160109]); however, the documentation of the development of the grids in Revision 02 has been updated to address technical inconsistencies and achieve greater transparency, readability, and traceability. The constraints, assumptions, and limitations associated with this report are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow.

  16. Estimation of bed protection damage using numerical flow modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoan, N.T.; Booij, R.; Hofland, B.; Stive, M.J.F.; Verhagen, H.J.

    2008-01-01

    The current research is aimed at evaluating the applicability of a numerical flow model to predict bed damage. First, an experimental study was carried out to get more inside into the relation between flow forces acting on a bed and the bed response (damage). The experiments were then used as the

  17. Numerical modeling of secondary side thermohydraulics of horizontal steam generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melikhov, V.I.; Melikhov, O.I.; Nigmatulin, B.I. [Research and Engineering Centre of LWR Nuclear Plants Safety, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    A mathematical model for the transient three-dimensional secondary side thermal hydraulics of the horizontal steam generator has been developed. The calculations of the steam generator PGV-1000 and PGV-4 nominal regimes and comparison of numerical and experimental results have been carried out. 7 refs.

  18. Numerical modelling on fate and transport of petroleum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 124; Issue 3. Numerical modelling on ... The vertical transport of petroleum hydrocarbons from a surface spill through an unsaturated subsurface system is of major concern in assessing the vulnerability of groundwater contamination. A realistic representation on ...

  19. Numerical Modelling of Rubber Vibration Isolators: identification of material parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijers, C.A.J.; Noordman, Bram; de Boer, Andries; Ivanov, N.I.; Crocker, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    Rubber vibration isolators are used for vibration isolation of engines at high frequencies. To make a good prediction regarding the characteristics of a vibration isolator in the design process, numerical models can be used. However, for a reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the isolator,

  20. Numerical Model Study of In Vivo Magnetic Nanoparticle Tumor Heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, John A; Petryk, Alicia A; Hoopes, P Jack

    2017-12-01

    Iron oxide nanoparticles are currently under investigation as heating agents for hyperthermic treatment of tumors. Major determinants of effective heating include the biodistribution and minimum iron oxide loading required to achieve adequate heating at practically achievable magnetic field strengths. These inter-related criteria ultimately determine the practicality of this approach to tumor treatment. Further, in our experience the currently used treatment assessment criterion for hyperthermia treatment-cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C, CEM43 -provides an inadequate description of the expected treatment effectiveness. Couple numerical models to experimental measurements to study the relative heating effectiveness described by cell death predictions. FEM numerical models were applied to increase the understanding of a carefully calibrated series of experiments in mouse mammary adenocarcinoma. The numerical model results indicate that minimum tumor loadings between approximately 1.3 to 1.8 mg of Fe per cm3 of tumor tissue are required to achieve the experimentally observed temperatures in magnetic field strengths of 32 kA/m (rms) at 162 kHz. We show that including multiple cell death processes operating in parallel within the numerical models provides valuable perspective on the likelihood of successful treatment. We show and believe that these assessment methods are more accurate than a single assessment figure of merit based only on the comparison of thermal histories, such as the CEM method.

  1. Numerical Tools for the Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Frontier Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osiewalski, J.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we describe the use of modern numerical integration methods for making posterior inferences in composed error stochastic frontier models for panel data or individual cross-sections.Two Monte Carlo methods have been used in practical applications.We survey these two methods in some

  2. Numerical Modelling and Measurement in a Test Secondary Settling Tank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, C.; Larsen, Torben; Petersen, O.

    1994-01-01

    and for comparing measured and calculated result. The numerical model could, fairly accuratly, predict the measured results and both the measured and the calculated results showed a flow field pattern identical to flow fields in full-scale secondary setling tanks. A specific calibration of the Bingham plastic...

  3. Corte Madera Creek Sedimentation Study: Numerical Model Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-04-01

    with 1987 data; the other two had bimodal distributions. Ten samples between sta 326+00 and 337+50 were used to obtain the May 1987 grada - tion...curves, the numerical model generally reproduced both measured deposition quantities and sampled grada - tions over a 14-year historical period

  4. Numerical model for the thermal behavior of thermocline storage tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehtiwesh, Ismael A. S.; Sousa, Antonio C. M.

    2017-10-01

    Energy storage is a critical factor in the advancement of solar thermal power systems for the sustained delivery of electricity. In addition, the incorporation of thermal energy storage into the operation of concentrated solar power systems (CSPs) offers the potential of delivering electricity without fossil-fuel backup even during peak demand, independent of weather conditions and daylight. Despite this potential, some areas of the design and performance of thermocline systems still require further attention for future incorporation in commercial CSPs, particularly, their operation and control. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a simple but efficient numerical model to allow the comprehensive analysis of thermocline storage systems aiming better understanding of their dynamic temperature response. The validation results, despite the simplifying assumptions of the numerical model, agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region. Three different cases are considered to test the versatility of the numerical model; for the particular type of a storage tank with top round impingement inlet, a simple analytical model was developed to take into consideration the increased turbulence level in the mixing region. The numerical predictions for the three cases are in general good agreement against the experimental results.

  5. Numerical modelling and experimental assessment of concrete spalling in fire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shamalta, M.; Breunese, A.; Peelen, W.; Fellinger, J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the phenomenon of spalling of concrete in fire has been studied using a numerical model. Spalling is the violent or non-violent breaking off of layers or pieces of concrete when it is exposed to high temperatures as experienced in fires. The types and mechanisms of spalling have been

  6. A framework for multiscale and multiscience modeling and numerical simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chopard, B.; Falcone, J.-L.; Hoekstra, A.G.; Borgdorff, J.

    2011-01-01

    The Complex Automata (CxA) methodology offers a new framework to develop multiscale and multiscience numerical simulations. The CxA approach assumes that a multiscale model can be formulated in terms of several coupled single-scale submodels. With concepts such as the scale separation map, the

  7. A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

    2009-01-01

    Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

  8. Numerical simulations of the 2-dimensional Robin-Hood model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cwilich, Gabriel; Fox, Perry; Zypman, Fredy; Buldyrev, Sergey

    2007-03-01

    The Robin Hood, or Zaitsev model [1] has been successfully used to model depinning of interfaces, friction, dislocation motion and flux creep, because it is one of the simplest extremal models for self-organized criticallity Until now, its properties have been well understood theoretically in one dimension and its scaling laws numerically verified. It is important to extend the range of validity of these laws into higher dimensions, to find precise values for the scaling exponents, and to investigate how they depend on the details of the model (like anisotropy). The case of two dimensions is of particular importance when studying surface friction [2]. Here, we numerically evaluate high precision scaling exponents for the avalanche size distribution, the avalanche fractal dimension, and the Levy flight-like distribution of the jumps between extremal active sites. [1] S.I. Zaitsev , Physica A 189, 411 (1992). [2] S. Buldyrev, J. Ferrante and F. Zypman Phys. Rev E (accepted)

  9. The Finite Element Numerical Modelling of 3D Magnetotelluric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligang Cao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ideal numerical simulation of 3D magnetotelluric was restricted by the methodology complexity and the time-consuming calculation. Boundary values, the variation of weighted residual equation, and the hexahedral mesh generation method of finite element are three major causes. A finite element method for 3D magnetotelluric numerical modeling is presented in this paper as a solution for the problem mentioned above. In this algorithm, a hexahedral element coefficient matrix for magnetoelluric finite method is developed, which solves large-scale equations using preconditioned conjugate gradient of the first-type boundary conditions. This algorithm is verified using the homogeneous model, and the positive landform model, as well as the low resistance anomaly model.

  10. Accounting for Errors in Model Analysis Theory: A Numerical Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Steven R.; Lindell, Rebecca S.

    2004-09-01

    By studying the patterns of a group of individuals' responses to a series of multiple-choice questions, researchers can utilize Model Analysis Theory to create a probability distribution of mental models for a student population. The eigenanalysis of this distribution yields information about what mental models the students possess, as well as how consistently they utilize said mental models. Although the theory considers the probabilistic distribution to be fundamental, there exists opportunities for random errors to occur. In this paper we will discuss a numerical approach for mathematically accounting for these random errors. As an example of this methodology, analysis of data obtained from the Lunar Phases Concept Inventory will be presented. Limitations and applicability of this numerical approach will be discussed.

  11. Using numerical models and acoustic methods to predict reservoir sedimentation

    OpenAIRE

    Elçi, Şebnem; Bor, Aslı; Çalışkan, Anıl

    2009-01-01

    This study draws on drainage basin hydrography, numerical modeling and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in concert with dual frequency echo sounder data to estimate sediment thickness when initial surveys are unavailable or inaccurate. Tahtali Reservoir (Turkey), which provides 40% of water supply to the city of Izmir, was selected as the study site. Deposition patterns within the whole lake were estimated with a 3-D hydrodynamic and sediment transport model applied to Tahtali R...

  12. Advanced in numerical modelling of two-phase flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paillere, H.; Kumbaro, A.; Toumi, I. [CEA Saclay, Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2001-07-01

    Numerical modelling of two-phase flow using Godunov-type solvers is making progress. Schemes such as the Roe scheme, or the less sophisticated AUSM+scheme, have the ability to resolve propagating waves such as void or shock waves with no oscillations. Transition from two-phase to single phase flow can also be modelled, and interfaces captured in a satisfactory way. Extension to 3D and validation on more complex flow fields are also presently being performed. (authors)

  13. Cross-National Validation of Prognostic Models Predicting Sickness Absence and the Added Value of Work Environment Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne A. M.; Stapelfeldt, Christina M.; Heymans, Martijn W.; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V.; Bultmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

    Purpose To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. Methods 2,562 municipal eldercare

  14. Numerical modeling of micropolar cylindrical shells on supercomputers with GPUs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varygina, M.

    2017-10-01

    The mathematical model of micropolar cylindrical shells is considered within the framework of the approximation approach. The constitutive equations of the theory are written in symmetric hyperbolic form. For the solution of dynamic problems on wave propagation in micropolar shells, parallel numerical algorithm based on the space-variable two-cyclic splitting method in combination with the monotone ENO-scheme is proposed. The parallelization of computations is performed with the CUDA technology for supercomputers with GPUs. The results of numerical solution of the problems on the action of distributed impulse loads and concentrated instant loads are shown.

  15. CNC MILLING MACHINE PRECISION ANALYSIS THROUGH NUMERICAL MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozef Svetlík

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The motive behind the effort to make virtual prototyping more sophisticated is first of all cost reduction of manufacturing machine design, followed by reduction of lead time for development, prototyping and testing of the pre-manufacturing machine series. This article deals with the analysis of manufacturing precision of a 3-axial, numerically controlled milling machine. The methodology for precision analysis rests on a selected simplified numerical calculation model of a manufacturing machine on which virtual machining has been conducted. The mechanical inaccuracy itself is calculated by computer via the FEM analysis. The results are processed for visualization by the Excel software.

  16. Numerical modelling of multiple scattering between two elastical particles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnø, Irina; Jensen, Leif Bjørnø

    1998-01-01

    is higher than 20 g/l of sand particles. This paper reports an attempt to illuminate and to solve the proximity threshold question, by an in-depth numerical study of the interaction of ultrasonic signals with two canonically shaped elastic particles. Introductory experimental results seem to create evidence...... for the applicability of this new numerical model...... in suspension have been studied extensively since Foldy's formulation of his theory for isotropic scattering by randomly distributed scatterers. However, a number of important problems related to multiple scattering are still far from finding their solutions. A particular, but still unsolved, problem...

  17. Numerical Modelling of Electric Conductance of a thin Sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojmir Kollar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the numeric modelling of total resistance of a thin sheet, with local conductivity in randomlydistributed grains higher then is that of the basic matrix, is presented. The 2D model is formed by a structure of longitudinaland transversal conductors interconnected in nodes of a square net. In all nodes, using iteration procedure, the potential isdetermined from which the conductance of sheet is computed between two touching electrodes. The described model can beused to imitate the behaviour of heterogeneous thin conducting sheets prepared by different techniques. The model wasverified in some cases where the net resistance is well known from the theory.

  18. Numerical models for fluid-grains interactions: opportunities and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteghamatian, Amir; Rahmani, Mona; Wachs, Anthony

    2017-06-01

    In the framework of a multi-scale approach, we develop numerical models for suspension flows. At the micro scale level, we perform particle-resolved numerical simulations using a Distributed Lagrange Multiplier/Fictitious Domain approach. At the meso scale level, we use a two-way Euler/Lagrange approach with a Gaussian filtering kernel to model fluid-solid momentum transfer. At both the micro and meso scale levels, particles are individually tracked in a Lagrangian way and all inter-particle collisions are computed by a Discrete Element/Soft-sphere method. The previous numerical models have been extended to handle particles of arbitrary shape (non-spherical, angular and even non-convex) as well as to treat heat and mass transfer. All simulation tools are fully-MPI parallel with standard domain decomposition and run on supercomputers with a satisfactory scalability on up to a few thousands of cores. The main asset of multi scale analysis is the ability to extend our comprehension of the dynamics of suspension flows based on the knowledge acquired from the high-fidelity micro scale simulations and to use that knowledge to improve the meso scale model. We illustrate how we can benefit from this strategy for a fluidized bed, where we introduce a stochastic drag force model derived from micro-scale simulations to recover the proper level of particle fluctuations. Conversely, we discuss the limitations of such modelling tools such as their limited ability to capture lubrication forces and boundary layers in highly inertial flows. We suggest ways to overcome these limitations in order to enhance further the capabilities of the numerical models.

  19. Partial differential equations modeling, analysis and numerical approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Le Dret, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the study of partial differential equation problems both from the theoretical and numerical points of view. After presenting modeling aspects, it develops the theoretical analysis of partial differential equation problems for the three main classes of partial differential equations: elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic. Several numerical approximation methods adapted to each of these examples are analyzed: finite difference, finite element and finite volumes methods, and they are illustrated using numerical simulation results. Although parts of the book are accessible to Bachelor students in mathematics or engineering, it is primarily aimed at Masters students in applied mathematics or computational engineering. The emphasis is on mathematical detail and rigor for the analysis of both continuous and discrete problems. .

  20. Prognostic model for survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma: results from the international kidney cancer working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Judith; Royston, Patrick; Elson, Paul; McCormack, Jennifer Bacik; Mazumdar, Madhu; Négrier, Sylvie; Escudier, Bernard; Eisen, Tim; Dutcher, Janice; Atkins, Michael; Heng, Daniel Y C; Choueiri, Toni K; Motzer, Robert; Bukowski, Ronald

    2011-08-15

    To develop a single validated model for survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) using a comprehensive international database. A comprehensive database of 3,748 patients including previously reported clinical prognostic factors was established by pooling patient-level data from clinical trials. Following quality control and standardization, descriptive statistics were generated. Univariate analyses were conducted using proportional hazards models. Multivariable analysis using a log-logistic model stratified by center and multivariable fractional polynomials was conducted to identify independent predictors of survival. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation methods. Three risk groups were formed using the 25th and 75th percentiles of the resulting prognostic index. The model was validated using an independent data set of 645 patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy. Median survival in the favorable, intermediate and poor risk groups was 26.9 months, 11.5 months, and 4.2 months, respectively. Factors contributing to the prognostic index included treatment, performance status, number of metastatic sites, time from diagnosis to treatment, and pretreatment hemoglobin, white blood count, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, and serum calcium. The model showed good concordance when tested among patients treated with TKI therapy (C statistic = 0.741, 95% CI: 0.714-0.768). Nine clinical factors can be used to model survival in mRCC and form distinct prognostic groups. The model shows utility among patients treated in the TKI era. ©2011 AACR.

  1. Numerical Model based Reliability Estimation of Selective Laser Melting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohanty, Sankhya; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2014-01-01

    parameters such as laser power, speed, beam profile, etc. Subsequently, uncertainties in the processing parameters are utilized to predict a range for the various outputs, using a Monte Carlo method based uncertainty analysis methodology, and the reliability of the process is established....... various numerical modelling and experimental studies are being carried out to better understand and control the process, there is still a lack of research into establishing the reliability of the process.In this paper, a combined modelling-experimental approach is introduced to establish the reliability...... of the selective laser melting process. A validated 3D finite-volume alternating-direction-implicit numerical technique is used to model the selective laser melting process, and is calibrated against results from single track formation experiments. Correlation coefficients are determined for process input...

  2. Numerical modelling of the HAB Energy Buoy: Stage 1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurniawan, Adi

    2017-01-01

    . The model is further able to give an estimate of the power production of the device in a given wave climate as well as other statistical estimates of the device motions and loads. The performance of different device shapes and dimensions has been evaluated, where displacement limits appropriate for each......This report presents the results of the first stage of the project "Numerical modelling of the HAB Energy Buoy". The objectives of this stage are to develop a numerical model of the HAB Energy Buoy, a self-reacting wave energy device consisting of two heaving bodies, and to investigate a number...... of variations of the device geometry in order to arrive at a design optimized for the target deployment site. The findings will be used as a basis to inform planned small-scale wave tank tests. A review of literature on self-reacting wave energy devices consisting of two heaving bodies has been conducted...

  3. Mathematical modeling and numerical calculation of composite structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golushko, S. K.

    2017-10-01

    The report is devoted to modeling the properties of composite materials. Two major approaches are considered: phenomenological and structural [1]. Within the framework of the first approach reinforced materials are modeled as homogeneous anisotropic medium with efficient physical and mechanical properties. In this case mechanical parameters of the material are determined basing on experimental data. In a structural approach, physical and mechanical parameters of the composite are expressed in terms of the parameters of its components and design of reinforcement that open up opportunities for improvement of the properties of composite structures. The mathematical relations describing the nonlinear elastic three-point bending of isotropic and reinforced beams with account of different strength and stiffness behavior in tension and compression are obtained. An algorithm for numerical solution of corresponding boundary-value problems is proposed and implemented. Results of numerical modeling have been compared to acquired data for polymer matrix and structural carbon fiber reinforced plastics.

  4. Nonlinear dispersion effects in elastic plates: numerical modelling and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijanka, Piotr; Radecki, Rafal; Packo, Pawel; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Uhl, Tadeusz; Leamy, Michael J.

    2017-04-01

    Nonlinear features of elastic wave propagation have attracted significant attention recently. The particular interest herein relates to complex wave-structure interactions, which provide potential new opportunities for feature discovery and identification in a variety of applications. Due to significant complexity associated with wave propagation in nonlinear media, numerical modeling and simulations are employed to facilitate design and development of new measurement, monitoring and characterization systems. However, since very high spatio- temporal accuracy of numerical models is required, it is critical to evaluate their spectral properties and tune discretization parameters for compromise between accuracy and calculation time. Moreover, nonlinearities in structures give rise to various effects that are not present in linear systems, e.g. wave-wave interactions, higher harmonics generation, synchronism and | recently reported | shifts to dispersion characteristics. This paper discusses local computational model based on a new HYBRID approach for wave propagation in nonlinear media. The proposed approach combines advantages of the Local Interaction Simulation Approach (LISA) and Cellular Automata for Elastodynamics (CAFE). The methods are investigated in the context of their accuracy for predicting nonlinear wavefields, in particular shifts to dispersion characteristics for finite amplitude waves and secondary wavefields. The results are validated against Finite Element (FE) calculations for guided waves in copper plate. Critical modes i.e., modes determining accuracy of a model at given excitation frequency - are identified and guidelines for numerical model parameters are proposed.

  5. Prognostic factors for survival in adult patients with recurrent glioblastoma: a decision-tree-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audureau, Etienne; Chivet, Anaïs; Ursu, Renata; Corns, Robert; Metellus, Philippe; Noel, Georges; Zouaoui, Sonia; Guyotat, Jacques; Le Reste, Pierre-Jean; Faillot, Thierry; Litre, Fabien; Desse, Nicolas; Petit, Antoine; Emery, Evelyne; Lechapt-Zalcman, Emmanuelle; Peltier, Johann; Duntze, Julien; Dezamis, Edouard; Voirin, Jimmy; Menei, Philippe; Caire, François; Dam Hieu, Phong; Barat, Jean-Luc; Langlois, Olivier; Vignes, Jean-Rodolphe; Fabbro-Peray, Pascale; Riondel, Adeline; Sorbets, Elodie; Zanello, Marc; Roux, Alexandre; Carpentier, Antoine; Bauchet, Luc; Pallud, Johan

    2017-11-20

    We assessed prognostic factors in relation to OS from progression in recurrent glioblastomas. Retrospective multicentric study enrolling 407 (training set) and 370 (external validation set) adult patients with a recurrent supratentorial glioblastoma treated by surgical resection and standard combined chemoradiotherapy as first-line treatment. Four complementary multivariate prognostic models were evaluated: Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, single-tree recursive partitioning, random survival forest, conditional random forest. Median overall survival from progression was 7.6 months (mean, 10.1; range, 0-86) and 8.0 months (mean, 8.5; range, 0-56) in the training and validation sets, respectively (p = 0.900). Using the Cox model in the training set, independent predictors of poorer overall survival from progression included increasing age at histopathological diagnosis (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI [1.03-2.08]; p = 0.032), RTOG-RPA V-VI classes (aHR, 1.38; 95% CI [1.11-1.73]; p = 0.004), decreasing KPS at progression (aHR, 3.46; 95% CI [2.10-5.72]; p < 0.001), while independent predictors of longer overall survival from progression included surgical resection (aHR, 0.57; 95% CI [0.44-0.73]; p < 0.001) and chemotherapy (aHR, 0.41; 95% CI [0.31-0.55]; p < 0.001). Single-tree recursive partitioning identified KPS at progression, surgical resection at progression, chemotherapy at progression, and RTOG-RPA class at histopathological diagnosis, as main survival predictors in the training set, yielding four risk categories highly predictive of overall survival from progression both in training (p < 0.0001) and validation (p < 0.0001) sets. Both random forest approaches identified KPS at progression as the most important survival predictor. Age, KPS at progression, RTOG-RPA classes, surgical resection at progression and chemotherapy at progression are prognostic for survival in recurrent glioblastomas and should inform the treatment decisions.

  6. Multicollinearity in prognostic factor analyses using the EORTC QLQ-C30: identification and impact on model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Steen, Kristel; Curran, Desmond; Kramer, Jocelyn; Molenberghs, Geert; Van Vreckem, Ann; Bottomley, Andrew; Sylvester, Richard

    2002-12-30

    Clinical and quality of life (QL) variables from an EORTC clinical trial of first line chemotherapy in advanced breast cancer were used in a prognostic factor analysis of survival and response to chemotherapy. For response, different final multivariate models were obtained from forward and backward selection methods, suggesting a disconcerting instability. Quality of life was measured using the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire completed by patients. Subscales on the questionnaire are known to be highly correlated, and therefore it was hypothesized that multicollinearity contributed to model instability. A correlation matrix indicated that global QL was highly correlated with 7 out of 11 variables. In a first attempt to explore multicollinearity, we used global QL as dependent variable in a regression model with other QL subscales as predictors. Afterwards, standard diagnostic tests for multicollinearity were performed. An exploratory principal components analysis and factor analysis of the QL subscales identified at most three important components and indicated that inclusion of global QL made minimal difference to the loadings on each component, suggesting that it is redundant in the model. In a second approach, we advocate a bootstrap technique to assess the stability of the models. Based on these analyses and since global QL exacerbates problems of multicollinearity, we therefore recommend that global QL be excluded from prognostic factor analyses using the QLQ-C30. The prognostic factor analysis was rerun without global QL in the model, and selected the same significant prognostic factors as before. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Handling geophysical flows: Numerical modelling using Graphical Processing Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Navarro, Pilar; Lacasta, Asier; Juez, Carmelo; Morales-Hernandez, Mario

    2016-04-01

    Computational tools may help engineers in the assessment of sediment transport during the decision-making processes. The main requirements are that the numerical results have to be accurate and simulation models must be fast. The present work is based on the 2D shallow water equations in combination with the 2D Exner equation [1]. The resulting numerical model accuracy was already discussed in previous work. Regarding the speed of the computation, the Exner equation slows down the already costly 2D shallow water model as the number of variables to solve is increased and the numerical stability is more restrictive. On the other hand, the movement of poorly sorted material over steep areas constitutes a hazardous environmental problem. Computational tools help in the predictions of such landslides [2]. In order to overcome this problem, this work proposes the use of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) for decreasing significantly the simulation time [3, 4]. The numerical scheme implemented in GPU is based on a finite volume scheme. The mathematical model and the numerical implementation are compared against experimental and field data. In addition, the computational times obtained with the Graphical Hardware technology are compared against Single-Core (sequential) and Multi-Core (parallel) CPU implementations. References [Juez et al.(2014)] Juez, C., Murillo, J., & Garca-Navarro, P. (2014) A 2D weakly-coupled and efficient numerical model for transient shallow flow and movable bed. Advances in Water Resources. 71 93-109. [Juez et al.(2013)] Juez, C., Murillo, J., & Garca-Navarro, P. (2013) . 2D simulation of granular flow over irregular steep slopes using global and local coordinates. Journal of Computational Physics. 225 166-204. [Lacasta et al.(2014)] Lacasta, A., Morales-Hernndez, M., Murillo, J., & Garca-Navarro, P. (2014) An optimized GPU implementation of a 2D free surface simulation model on unstructured meshes Advances in Engineering Software. 78 1-15. [Lacasta

  8. Computational Models of Laryngeal Aerodynamics: Potentials and Numerical Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Hossein; Kniesburges, Stefan; Kaltenbacher, Manfred; Schützenberger, Anne; Döllinger, Michael

    2018-02-07

    Human phonation is based on the interaction between tracheal airflow and laryngeal dynamics. This fluid-structure interaction is based on the energy exchange between airflow and vocal folds. Major challenges in analyzing the phonatory process in-vivo are the small dimensions and the poor accessibility of the region of interest. For improved analysis of the phonatory process, numerical simulations of the airflow and the vocal fold dynamics have been suggested. Even though most of the models reproduced the phonatory process fairly well, development of comprehensive larynx models is still a subject of research. In the context of clinical application, physiological accuracy and computational model efficiency are of great interest. In this study, a simple numerical larynx model is introduced that incorporates the laryngeal fluid flow. It is based on a synthetic experimental model with silicone vocal folds. The degree of realism was successively increased in separate computational models and each model was simulated for 10 oscillation cycles. Results show that relevant features of the laryngeal flow field, such as glottal jet deflection, develop even when applying rather simple static models with oscillating flow rates. Including further phonatory components such as vocal fold motion, mucosal wave propagation, and ventricular folds, the simulations show phonatory key features like intraglottal flow separation and increased flow rate in presence of ventricular folds. The simulation time on 100 CPU cores ranged between 25 and 290 hours, currently restricting clinical application of these models. Nevertheless, results show high potential of numerical simulations for better understanding of phonatory process. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. 3-D Numerical Stratigraphic Forward Modeling of Rifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovely, P. J.; Harris, A.; Baumgardner, S. E.; Engelder, T.; Sun, T.; Lyons, R. P.; Granjeon, D.

    2016-12-01

    Continental rifts are of great interest and relevance to scientists and the general public because they contain numerous depositional environments at relatively compressed spatiotemporal scales, continuous climate records, and hydrocarbon resources. The interaction of climate, sediment routing, and tectonism controls the distribution and continuity of the depositional environments, but these relationships are nonlinear and complex. Conceptual stratigraphic models provide useful insight into facies distribution but are typically qualitative and may not capture the full range of geologically plausible scenarios generated by these interactions. Here, we use a numerical forward stratigraphic model to demonstrate that a deterministic, nonlinear diffusion-based sediment transport model can approximate key tectonostratigraphic processes interpreted from continental rift systems. The sediment transport model acts upon a simple elastic tectonic model that approximates appropriate distributions of subsidence and uplift associated with a schematic fault architecture typical of early stage continental rifting. Comparison of model results to observations of outcrops and the subsurface demonstrates the model's ability to reproduce key tectonostratigraphic features. We also show that such a model may be used to analyze the sensitivity of sand distributions to base-level, sediment, and water flux changes. We present an example analysis with a suite of metrics such as sand thickness, net-to-gross, and mass extraction methods that quantitatively describe the deposits that result from various inputs. This simple sensitivity analysis can be conducted by academic and industry groups to better characterize facies distribution or quantify uncertainties associated with continental rifts.

  10. Proudman and Chrystal resonances simulated with three numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubalo, Maja; Janeković, Ivica; Orlić, Mirko

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this work was to validate and compare how Proudman and Chrystal resonances are reproduced with different, nowadays widely used, numerical models. The test case was based on simple air pressure disturbances of two commonly used shapes (a boxcar and a sinusoidal), having various wave lengths, and propagating at different speeds. Our test domain was a rectangular basin, 300 km long with a uniform depth of 50 m. For each simulation, we saved water level anomalies and computed the integral of the energy density spectrum for a number of points distributed along the basin. The 341 simulations were performed using three different numerical models: ADCIRC, ROMS and SCHISM. A comparison of the results shows that the models represent the resonant phenomena in different ways. For the Proudman resonance, the most consistent results, closest to the analytical solution, were obtained with ROMS model, which reproduced the mean resonant speed equal to 21.99 m/s - i.e., close to the theoretical value of 22.14 m/s. ADCIRC model showed small deviations from that value, with the mean speed being slightly lower - 21.79 m/s. SCHISM differed the most from the analytical solution, with the mean speed equalling 21.04 m/s. For the Chrystal resonance, all the models showed similar behaviour, with ADCIRC model providing slightly lower values of the mean resonant period than the other two models.

  11. On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

    The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

  12. Numerical linked-cluster approach to quantum lattice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigol, Marcos; Bryant, Tyler; Singh, Rajiv R P

    2006-11-03

    We present a novel algorithm that allows one to obtain temperature dependent properties of quantum lattice models in the thermodynamic limit from exact diagonalization of small clusters. Our numerical linked-cluster approach provides a systematic framework to assess finite-size effects and is valid for any quantum lattice model. Unlike high temperature expansions, which have a finite radius of convergence in inverse temperature, these calculations are accurate at all temperatures provided the range of correlations is finite. We illustrate the power of our approach studying spin models on kagomé, triangular, and square lattices.

  13. Numerical modeling of electron-beam welding of dissimilar metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krektuleva, R. A.; Cherepanov, O. I.; Cherepanov, R. O.

    2016-11-01

    This paper is devoted to numerical modeling of heat transfer processes and estimation of thermal stresses in weld seams created by electron beam welding of heterogeneous metals. The mathematical model is based on a system of equations that includes the Lagrange's variational equation of theory of plasticity and variational equation of M. Biot's principle to simulate the heat transfer processes. The two-dimensional problems (plane strain and plane stress) are considered for estimation of thermal stresses in welds considering differences of mechanical properties of welded materials. The model is developed for simulation of temperature fields and stresses during electron beam welding.

  14. Numerical Modelling Of Humid Air Flow Around A Porous Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohojło-Wiśniewska Aneta

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an example of humid air flow around a single head of Chinese cabbage under conditions of complex heat transfer. This kind of numerical simulation allows us to create a heat and humidity transfer model between the Chinese cabbage and the flowing humid air. The calculations utilize the heat transfer model in porous medium, which includes the temperature difference between the solid (vegetable tissue and fluid (air phases of the porous medium. Modelling and calculations were performed in ANSYS Fluent 14.5 software.

  15. Numerical methods for modeling photonic-crystal VCSELs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dems, Maciej; Chung, Il-Sug; Nyakas, Peter

    2010-01-01

    We show comparison of four different numerical methods for simulating Photonic-Crystal (PC) VCSELs. We present the theoretical basis behind each method and analyze the differences by studying a benchmark VCSEL structure, where the PC structure penetrates all VCSEL layers, the entire top-mirror DBR......, a fraction of the top-mirror DBR or just the VCSEL cavity. The different models are evaluated by comparing the predicted resonance wavelengths and threshold gains for different hole diameters and pitches of the PC. The agreement between the models is relatively good, except for one model, which corresponds...

  16. Numerical Modeling of Fracture Propagation in Naturally Fractured Formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Prodanovic, M.; Olson, J. E.; Schultz, R.

    2015-12-01

    Hydraulic fracturing consists of injecting fluid at high pressure and high flowrate to the wellbore for the purpose of enhancing production by generating a complex fracture network. Both tensile failure and shear failure occur during the hydraulic fracturing treatment. The shear event can be caused by slip on existing weak planes such as faults or natural fractures. From core observation, partially cemented and fully cemented opening mode natural fractures, often with considerable thickness are widely present. Hydraulic fractures can propagate either within the natural fracture (tensile failure) or along the interface between the natural fracture and the rock matrix (tensile/shear failure), depending on the relative strength of cement and rock matrix materials, the bonding strength of interface, as well as the presence of any heterogeneities. In this study, we evaluate the fracture propagation both experimentally and numerically. We embed one or multiple inclusions of different mechanical properties within synthetic hydrostone samples in order to mimic cemented natural fractures and rock. A semi-circular bending test is performed for each set of properties. A finite element model built with ABAQUS is used to mimic the semi-circular bending test and study the fracture propagation path, as well as the matrix-inclusion bonding interface status. Mechanical properties required for the numerical model are measured experimentally. The results indicate that the match between experiment and modeling fracture path are extremely sensitive to the chosen interface (bonding) model and related parameters. The semi-circular bending test is dry and easily conducted, providing a good platform for validating numerical approaches. A validated numerical model will enable us to add pressurized fluid within the crack and simulate hydraulic fracture-natural fracture interaction in the reservoir conditions, ultimately providing insights into the extent of the fracture network.

  17. Wind Wave Numerical Modeling in the Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, R.; Ardalan, A. A.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Numerical simulation results of wind wave in the Caspian Sea by using wind forcing data are presented. The numerical modeling which is applied in this study is based on numerical spectral wave model which is based on Navier-Stokes equations. It solves these equations through each of mesh elements. Moreover, in this model high-resolution unstructured grid for the Caspian Sea has been used in order to reach finer accuracy. The wind forcing data are given from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The measurement data, which are gained from Ports and Marine Organisation (PMO) of Iran, are used in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The results have shown better accuracy in comparison with PMO simulation. Mean of the coefficient of determination (R-squared) for significant wave height in this simulation is 0.8059, though, in PMO simulation this coefficient is reported 0.7056. Better accuracy requires more measurement data and also finer resolution of bathymetry data.

  18. WIND WAVE NUMERICAL MODELING IN THE CASPIAN SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Mahmoodi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulation results of wind wave in the Caspian Sea by using wind forcing data are presented. The numerical modeling which is applied in this study is based on numerical spectral wave model which is based on Navier-Stokes equations. It solves these equations through each of mesh elements. Moreover, in this model high-resolution unstructured grid for the Caspian Sea has been used in order to reach finer accuracy. The wind forcing data are given from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. The measurement data, which are gained from Ports and Marine Organisation (PMO of Iran, are used in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The results have shown better accuracy in comparison with PMO simulation. Mean of the coefficient of determination (R-squared for significant wave height in this simulation is 0.8059, though, in PMO simulation this coefficient is reported 0.7056. Better accuracy requires more measurement data and also finer resolution of bathymetry data.

  19. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, M.; Kwee, A.; Naaktgeboren, C.A.; Groot, I. de; Evers, I.M.; Groenendaal, F.; Hering, Y.R.; Huisjes, A.J.M.; Kirpestein, C.; Monincx, W.M.; Siljee, J.E.; Zelfde, A. van't; Oirschot, C.M. van; Vankan-Buitelaar, S.A.; Vonk, M.A.A.W.; Wiegers, T.A.; Zwart, J.J.; Franx, A.; Moons, K.G.M.; Koster, M.P.H.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. Design: External validation of all published prognostic models in

  20. A prognostic model of therapy-related myelodysplastic syndrome for predicting survival and transformation to acute myeloid leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintás-Cardama, Alfonso; Daver, Naval; Kim, Hawk; Dinardo, Courtney; Jabbour, Elias; Kadia, Tapan; Borthakur, Gautam; Pierce, Sherry; Shan, Jianqin; Cardenas-Turanzas, Marylou; Cortes, Jorge; Ravandi, Farhad; Wierda, William; Estrov, Zeev; Faderl, Stefan; Wei, Yue; Kantarjian, Hagop; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo

    2014-10-01

    We evaluated the characteristics of a cohort of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) related to therapy (t-MDS) to create a prognostic model. We identified 281 patients with MDS who had received previous chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy for previous malignancy. Potential prognostic factors were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 7 factors that independently predicted short survival in t-MDS: age ≥ 65 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.63), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 2-4 (HR, 1.86), poor cytogenetics (-7 and/or complex; HR, 2.47), World Health Organization MDS subtype (RARs or RAEB-1/2; HR, 1.92), hemoglobin (HR, 2.24), platelets (HR, 2.01), and transfusion dependency (HR, 1.59). These risk factors were used to create a prognostic model that segregated patients into 3 groups with distinct median overall survival: good (0-2 risk factors; 34 months), intermediate (3-4 risk factors; 12 months), and poor (5-7 risk factors; 5 months) (P < .001) and 1-year leukemia-free survival (96%, 84%, and 72%, respectively, P = .003). This model also identified distinct survival groups according to t-MDS therapy. In summary, we devised a prognostic model specifically for patients with t-MDS that predicted overall survival and leukemia-free survival. This model might facilitate the development of risk-adapted therapeutic strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  2. Global numerical modeling of magnetized plasma in a linear device

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, Michael Løiten

    Understanding the turbulent transport in the plasma-edge in fusion devices is of utmost importance in order to make precise predictions for future fusion devices. The plasma turbulence observed in linear devices shares many important features with the turbulence observed in the edge of fusion...... devices, and are easier to diagnose due to lower temperatures and a better access to the plasma. In order to gain greater insight into this complex turbulent behavior, numerical simulations of plasma in a linear device are performed in this thesis. Here, a three-dimensional drift-fluid model is derived...... from first principles for a magnetized plasma in a linear device. To account for the fluctuations at the same level as the background plasma, the traditional split between background and fluctuations has not been made. The model is implemented using the BOUT++ framework and is solved numerically...

  3. A Numerical Model of Viscoelastic Flow in Microchannels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trebotich, D; Colella, P; Miller, G; Liepmann, D

    2002-11-14

    The authors present a numerical method to model non-Newtonian, viscoelastic flow at the microscale. The equations of motion are the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the Oldroyd-B constitutive equation. This constitutive equation is chosen to model a Boger fluid which is representative of complex biological solutions exhibiting elastic behavior due to macromolecules in the solution (e.g., DNA solution). The numerical approach is a projection method to impose the incompressibility constraint and a Lax-Wendroff method to predict velocities and stresses while recovering both viscous and elastic limits. The method is second-order accurate in space and time, free-stream preserving, has a time step constraint determined by the advective CFL condition, and requires the solution of only well-behaved linear systems amenable to the use of fast iterative methods. They demonstrate the method for viscoelastic incompressible flow in simple microchannels (2D) and microducts (3D).

  4. Elements of Constitutive Modelling and Numerical Analysis of Frictional Soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Kim Parsberg

    of a constitutive model for soil is based on a profound knowledge of the soil behaviour upon loading. In the present study it is attempted to get a better understanding of the soil behaviour bv performing a number of triaxial compression tests on sand. The stress-strain behaviour of sand depends strongly......This thesis deals with elements of elasto-plastic constitutive modelling and numerical analysis of frictional soils. The thesis is based on a number of scientific papers and reports in which central characteristics of soil behaviour and applied numerical techniques are considered. The development...... and subsequently dilates during shear. The change in the volumetric behaviour of the soil skeleton is commonly referred to as the characteristic state. The stress ratio corresponding to the characteristic state is independent of the mean normal effective stress and the relative density, but depends on the stress...

  5. Numerical models for the phenomenological study of flameless combustion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Argemiro Herrera Múnera

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Flameless combustion is a technique which offers environmental advantages such as lower than 100 ppm NOx and CO emis- sions due to below 200 K temperature gradients. Flameless combustion also supplies higher than 70% energy efficiency. Knowledge of the phenomena in this combustion regime has been facilitated by using numerical simulation. This paper reviewed the specialised literature about the most commonly used turbulence, combustion, heat transfer and NOx formation models in modelling flameless combustion with CFD codes. The review concluded that the k-ε standard model is the most used for turbu- lence. Finite rate/eddy dissipation with modified constants and eddy dissipation concept models are suitable for combustion reac- tions, discrete ordinates and weighted sum gray gas (WSGG models are used for radiation and thermal, prompt and N2O inter- mediate models are used for NOx.

  6. Integrating Numerical Computation into the Modeling Instruction Curriculum

    CERN Document Server

    Caballero, Marcos D; Aiken, John M; Douglas, Scott S; Scanlon, Erin M; Thoms, Brian; Schatz, Michael F

    2012-01-01

    We describe a way to introduce physics high school students with no background in programming to computational problem-solving experiences. Our approach builds on the great strides made by the Modeling Instruction reform curriculum. This approach emphasizes the practices of "Developing and using models" and "Computational thinking" highlighted by the NRC K-12 science standards framework. We taught 9th-grade students in a Modeling-Instruction-based physics course to construct computational models using the VPython programming environment. Numerical computation within the Modeling Instruction curriculum provides coherence among the curriculum's different force and motion models, links the various representations which the curriculum employs, and extends the curriculum to include real-world problems that are inaccessible to a purely analytic approach.

  7. Numerical modelling of multiphase flow and transport processes in landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindlein, Jonatham; Dinkler, Dieter; Ahrens, Hermann

    2006-08-01

    Waste material in municipal landfills can be described as heterogeneous porous media, where flow and transport processes of gases and liquids are combined with local material degradation. This paper deals with the basic formulation of a multiphase flow and transport model applicable to the numerical analysis of coupled transport and reaction processes inside landfills. The transport model treats landfills within the framework of continuum mechanics, where flow and transport processes are described on a macroscopic level. The composition of organic and inorganic matter in the solid phase and its degradation are modelled on a microscopic scale. The degradation model captures the different reaction schemes of various microbial activities. Subsequently, transport and reaction processes have to be coupled, since emissions at the surface and from the drainage layer depend on the flow of leachate and gas, the transport of various substances and heat, and the biodegradation of organic matter. The theoretical considerations presented here are fundamental to the development of numerical models for the simulation of multiphase flow and transport processes inside landfills coupled with biochemical reactions and heat generation. The implicit modelling of leachate and gas flows including growth and decay of micro-organisms are innovative contributions to landfill modelling

  8. Prognostic factors in gastric cancer evaluated by using Cox regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghiandoni, G; Rocchi, M B; Signoretti, P; Belbusti, F

    1998-06-01

    To identify the most relevant short-term predictor variables in gastric cancer removal. A retrospective survival analysis executed by using the Cox regression model; the follow-up period is included between 18 and 90 months. A district general hospital surgery unit: "Divisione di Chirurgia Generale, Ospedale Civile di Urbino" (Marche, Italy). One hundred and twenty nine consecutive patients operated for gastric cancer. Surgery (total or subtotal gastrectomy). Survival times. Lymph node involvement (N) (p extension (T) (p < 0.001) and the age of the patients (p < 0.05) have been recognized as significant prognostic factors. Results show that the short-term prognosis largely depends on both the earliness of the diagnosis and the age of the patients.

  9. Numerical Models for the Study of Electromagnetic Shielding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPA Monica

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents 2D and 3D models for the study of electromagnetic shielding of a coil. The magnetic fields are computed for defining the shielding effectiveness. Parametrized numerical studies were performed in order to established the influence of shield thickness and height on magnetic field in certain points located in the exterior of coil – shield setup and on induced power within the shield.

  10. Numerical Modeling of a Ducted Rocket Combustor With Experimental Validation

    OpenAIRE

    Hewitt, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    The present work was conducted with the intent of developing a high-fidelity numerical model of a unique combustion flow problem combining multi-phase fuel injection with substantial momentum and temperature into a highly complex turbulent flow. This important problem is very different from typical and more widely known liquid fuel combustion problems and is found in practice in pulverized coal combustors and ducted rocket ramjets. As the ducted rocket engine cycle is only now finding wides...

  11. Sorted patterned ground: Numerical models exhibiting self-organization

    OpenAIRE

    Kessler, Mark A.

    2002-01-01

    Sorted patterned ground, decimeter- to meter-scale patterns of circular, polygonal, striped and labyrinthine stone and soil domains, form in Arctic, sub­Arctic and high alpine environments where the surface ground layer, the active layer, experiences cyclic freezing and thawing that drives transport by frost heave, which is soil expansion via ice lens formation. In numerical models encapsulating observed and inferred active layer processes, all forms of sorted patterned ground emerge from an ...

  12. Numerical Modeling of a Wave Energy Point Absorber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez, Lorenzo Banos; Frigaard, Peter; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2009-01-01

    The present study deals with numerical modelling of the Wave Star Energy WSE device. Hereby, linear potential theory is applied via a BEM code on the wave hydrodynamics exciting the floaters. Time and frequency domain solutions of the floater response are determined for regular and irregular seas....... Furthermore, these results are used to estimate the power and the energy absorbed by a single oscillating floater. Finally, a latching control strategy is analysed in open-loop configuration for energy maximization....

  13. Numerical Modeling of Compressible Flow and Its Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Streamwise coordinate  Numerical parameter 0 Reference boundary layer thickness r Relative permittivity  Standard deviation R Separation...10) where 0 is the permittivity of free space. The electric field was found from E = −∇φ. C. Closure Models In the equation set (1)–(3), closure...103302. 27Uddi, M., Jiang, N., Adamovich, I. V., and Lempert, W. R., “Nitric Oxide Density Measurements in Air and Air/ Fuel Nanosecond Pulse Discharges

  14. Numerical MRI-based breast model for microwave imaging

    OpenAIRE

    Rubino, Roselena

    2012-01-01

    English: Nowadays, the most popular technique for breast cancer detection is the mammography. Due to its drawbacks, other alternative/complementary methods are being researched. In this master thesis, the feasibility of the UWB Magnitude-Combined (MC-UWB) tomographic algorithm is assessed for the breast cancer detection application. This process is done by creating a numerical breast model, calculating its direct problem, applying the algorithm to solve the inverse problem to finally present ...

  15. A nonlinear numerical model of percutaneous drug absorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, K; Twizell, E H

    1992-03-01

    A nonlinear mathematical model developed by Chandrasekaran et al. is examined to monitor pharmacokinetic profiles in percutaneous drug absorption and is addressed to several associated problems that could occur in the data analysis of in vitro experiments. The formulation of the model gives rise to a nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) of parabolic type, and a family of finite-difference methods is developed for the numerical solution of the associated initial/boundary-value problem. The value given to a parameter in this family determines the stability properties of the resulting method and whether the solution is obtained explicitly or implicitly. In the case of implicit members of the family it is seen that the solution of the nonlinear PDE is obtained by solving a linear algebraic system, the coefficient matrix of which is tridiagonal. The behaviors of two methods of the family are examined in a series of numerical experiments. Numerical differentiation and integration procedures are combined to monitor the cumulative amount of drug eliminated into the receptor cell per unit area as time increases. It is found that the use of the equation for the simple membrane model to estimate the permeability coefficient and lag time is warranted even if the system should be described by the dual-sorption model, provided cumulative amount versus time data collected for a sufficiently long time are used. However, being different from the behavior in the simple membrane model, the lag time, which can be estimated in this way, is dose-dependent and decreases with increasing donor cell concentration. On the other hand, the permeability coefficient in the dual-sorption model remains constant irrespective of the donor cell concentrations as in the simple membrane model.

  16. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in viscoelastic media with relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnez, M. T.; Johnsen, E.

    2015-01-01

    Cavitation occurs in a variety of non-Newtonian fluids and viscoelastic materials. The large-amplitude volumetric oscillations of cavitation bubbles give rise to high temperatures and pressures at collapse, as well as induce large and rapid deformation of the surroundings. In this work, we develop a comprehensive numerical framework for spherical bubble dynamics in isotropic media obeying a wide range of viscoelastic constitutive relationships. Our numerical approach solves the compressible Keller–Miksis equation with full thermal effects (inside and outside the bubble) when coupled to a highly generalized constitutive relationship (which allows Newtonian, Kelvin–Voigt, Zener, linear Maxwell, upper-convected Maxwell, Jeffreys, Oldroyd-B, Giesekus, and Phan-Thien-Tanner models). For the latter two models, partial differential equations (PDEs) must be solved in the surrounding medium; for the remaining models, we show that the PDEs can be reduced to ordinary differential equations. To solve the general constitutive PDEs, we present a Chebyshev spectral collocation method, which is robust even for violent collapse. Combining this numerical approach with theoretical analysis, we simulate bubble dynamics in various viscoelastic media to determine the impact of relaxation time, a constitutive parameter, on the associated physics. Relaxation time is found to increase bubble growth and permit rebounds driven purely by residual stresses in the surroundings. Different regimes of oscillations occur depending on the relaxation time. PMID:26130967

  17. Optimization methods and silicon solar cell numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardini, K.; Jacobsen, S. E.

    1986-01-01

    An optimization algorithm for use with numerical silicon solar cell models was developed. By coupling an optimization algorithm with a solar cell model, it is possible to simultaneously vary design variables such as impurity concentrations, front junction depth, back junction depth, and cell thickness to maximize the predicted cell efficiency. An optimization algorithm was developed and interfaced with the Solar Cell Analysis Program in 1 Dimension (SCAP1D). SCAP1D uses finite difference methods to solve the differential equations which, along with several relations from the physics of semiconductors, describe mathematically the performance of a solar cell. A major obstacle is that the numerical methods used in SCAP1D require a significant amount of computer time, and during an optimization the model is called iteratively until the design variables converge to the values associated with the maximum efficiency. This problem was alleviated by designing an optimization code specifically for use with numerically intensive simulations, to reduce the number of times the efficiency has to be calculated to achieve convergence to the optimal solution.

  18. Numerical solution of High-kappa model of superconductivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamikhova, R. [Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    We present formulation and finite element approximations of High-kappa model of superconductivity which is valid in the high {kappa}, high magnetic field setting and accounts for applied magnetic field and current. Major part of this work deals with steady-state and dynamic computational experiments which illustrate our theoretical results numerically. In our experiments we use Galerkin discretization in space along with Backward-Euler and Crank-Nicolson schemes in time. We show that for moderate values of {kappa}, steady states of the model system, computed using the High-kappa model, are virtually identical with results computed using the full Ginzburg-Landau (G-L) equations. We illustrate numerically optimal rates of convergence in space and time for the L{sup 2} and H{sup 1} norms of the error in the High-kappa solution. Finally, our numerical approximations demonstrate some well-known experimentally observed properties of high-temperature superconductors, such as appearance of vortices, effects of increasing the applied magnetic field and the sample size, and the effect of applied constant current.

  19. Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in viscoelastic media with relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnez, M. T.; Johnsen, E.

    2015-06-01

    Cavitation occurs in a variety of non-Newtonian fluids and viscoelastic materials. The large-amplitude volumetric oscillations of cavitation bubbles give rise to high temperatures and pressures at collapse, as well as induce large and rapid deformation of the surroundings. In this work, we develop a comprehensive numerical framework for spherical bubble dynamics in isotropic media obeying a wide range of viscoelastic constitutive relationships. Our numerical approach solves the compressible Keller-Miksis equation with full thermal effects (inside and outside the bubble) when coupled to a highly generalized constitutive relationship (which allows Newtonian, Kelvin-Voigt, Zener, linear Maxwell, upper-convected Maxwell, Jeffreys, Oldroyd-B, Giesekus, and Phan-Thien-Tanner models). For the latter two models, partial differential equations (PDEs) must be solved in the surrounding medium; for the remaining models, we show that the PDEs can be reduced to ordinary differential equations. To solve the general constitutive PDEs, we present a Chebyshev spectral collocation method, which is robust even for violent collapse. Combining this numerical approach with theoretical analysis, we simulate bubble dynamics in various viscoelastic media to determine the impact of relaxation time, a constitutive parameter, on the associated physics. Relaxation time is found to increase bubble growth and permit rebounds driven purely by residual stresses in the surroundings. Different regimes of oscillations occur depending on the relaxation time.

  20. A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chia-Bo

    1989-01-01

    Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

  1. Numerical Solution of a Model Equation of Price Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernogorova, T.; Vulkov, L.

    2009-10-01

    The paper [2] is devoted to the effect of reconciling the classical Black-Sholes theory of option pricing and hedging with various phenomena observed in the markets such as the influence of trading and hedging on the dynamics of an asset. Here we will discuss the numerical solution of initial boundary-value problems to a model equation of the theory. The lack of regularity in the solution as a result from Dirac delta coefficient reduces the accuracy in the numerical computations. First, we apply the finite volume method to discretize the differential problem. Second, we implement a technique of local regularization introduced by A-K. Tornberg and B. Engquist [7] for handling this equation. We derived the numerical regularization process into two steps: the Dirac delta function is regularized and then the regularized differential equation is discretized by difference schemes. Using the discrete maximum principle a priori bounds are obtained for the difference equations that imply stability and convergence of difference schemes for the problem under consideration. Numerical experiments are discussed.

  2. A prognostic model to predict the success of artificial insemination in dairy cows based on readily available data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten, C.J.; Steeneveld, W.; Vernooij, J.C.M.; Huijps, K.; Nielen, M.; Hogeveen, H.

    2016-01-01

    A prognosis of the likelihood of insemination success is valuable information for the decision to start inseminating a cow. This decision is important for the reproduction management of dairy farms. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for the likelihood of successful first

  3. A prognostic model to predict the success of artificial insemination in dairy cows based on readily available data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten, C J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/353551031; Steeneveld, W|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833169; Vernooij, J C M|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/340304596; Huijps, K|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837881; Nielen, M|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/123535298; Hogeveen, H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/126322864

    2016-01-01

    A prognosis of the likelihood of insemination success is valuable information for the decision to start inseminating a cow. This decision is important for the reproduction management of dairy farms. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for the likelihood of successful first

  4. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baars, E.W.; van der Hart, O.; Nijenhuis, E.R.S.; Chu, J.A.; Glas, G.; Draaijer, N.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID).We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex

  5. Interaction of tide and salinity barrier: Limitation of numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai1

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the study of interaction of the tide and the salinity barrier in an estuarine area is usually accomplished vianumerical modeling, due to the speed and convenience of modern computers. However, numerical models provide littleinsight with respect to the fundamental physical mechanisms involved. In this study, it is found that all existing numericalmodels work satisfactorily when the barrier is located at some distance far from upstream and downstream boundary conditions.Results are considerably underestimate reality when the barrier is located near the downstream boundary, usually theriver mouth. Meanwhile, this analytical model provides satisfactory output for all scenarios. The main problem of thenumerical model is that the effects of barrier construction in creation of reflected tide are neglected when specifying thedownstream boundary conditions; the use of the boundary condition before construction of the barrier which are significantlydifferent from those after the barrier construction would result in an error outputs. Future numerical models shouldattempt to account for this deficiency; otherwise, using this analytical model is another choice.

  6. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarwal, Vivek [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lybeck, Nancy J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pham, Binh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rusaw, Richard [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Bickford, Randall [Expert Microsystems, Orangevale, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  7. Laser modeling a numerical approach with algebra and calculus

    CERN Document Server

    Csele, Mark Steven

    2014-01-01

    Offering a fresh take on laser engineering, Laser Modeling: A Numerical Approach with Algebra and Calculus presents algebraic models and traditional calculus-based methods in tandem to make concepts easier to digest and apply in the real world. Each technique is introduced alongside a practical, solved example based on a commercial laser. Assuming some knowledge of the nature of light, emission of radiation, and basic atomic physics, the text:Explains how to formulate an accurate gain threshold equation as well as determine small-signal gainDiscusses gain saturation and introduces a novel pass

  8. Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

    2013-01-01

    of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel......We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations...

  9. An Object Model for a Rocket Engine Numerical Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, D.; Bhalla, P. N.; Pratap, V.; Reddy, P.

    1998-01-01

    Rocket Engine Numerical Simulator (RENS) is a packet of software which numerically simulates the behavior of a rocket engine. Different parameters of the components of an engine is the input to these programs. Depending on these given parameters the programs output the behaviors of those components. These behavioral values are then used to guide the design of or to diagnose a model of a rocket engine "built" by a composition of these programs simulating different components of the engine system. In order to use this software package effectively one needs to have a flexible model of a rocket engine. These programs simulating different components then should be plugged into this modular representation. Our project is to develop an object based model of such an engine system. We are following an iterative and incremental approach in developing the model, as is the standard practice in the area of object oriented design and analysis of softwares. This process involves three stages: object modeling to represent the components and sub-components of a rocket engine, dynamic modeling to capture the temporal and behavioral aspects of the system, and functional modeling to represent the transformational aspects. This article reports on the first phase of our activity under a grant (RENS) from the NASA Lewis Research center. We have utilized Rambaugh's object modeling technique and the tool UML for this purpose. The classes of a rocket engine propulsion system are developed and some of them are presented in this report. The next step, developing a dynamic model for RENS, is also touched upon here. In this paper we will also discuss the advantages of using object-based modeling for developing this type of an integrated simulator over other tools like an expert systems shell or a procedural language, e.g., FORTRAN. Attempts have been made in the past to use such techniques.

  10. Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global

  11. Numerical investigation for erratic behavior of Kriging surrogate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Hyun Gil; Yi, Seul Gi [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Seong Im [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Kriging model is one of popular spatial/temporal interpolation models in engineering field since it could reduce the time resources for the expensive analysis. But generation of the Kriging model is hardly a sinecure because internal semi-variogram structure of the Kriging often reveals numerically unstable or erratic behaviors. In present study, the issues in the maximum likelihood estimation which are the vital-parts of the construction of the Kriging model, is investigated. These issues are divided into two aspects; Issue I is for the erratic response of likelihood function itself, and Issue II is for numerically unstable behaviors in the correlation matrix. For both issues, studies for specific circumstances which might raise the issue, and the reason of that are conducted. Some practical ways further are suggested to cope with them. Furthermore, the issue is studied for practical problem; aerodynamic performance coefficients of two-dimensional airfoil predicted by CFD analysis. Result shows that such erratic behavior of Kriging surrogate model can be effectively resolved by proposed solution. In conclusion, it is expected this paper could be helpful to prevent such an erratic and unstable behavior.

  12. Constitutive Modeling and Numerical Simulation of Frp Confined Concrete Specimens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smitha Gopinath

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP composites are generally used for the seismic retrofit of concrete members to enhance their strength and ductility. In the present work, the confining effect of Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (CFRP composite layers has been investigated by numerical simulation. The numerical simulation has been carried out using nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA to predict the response behaviour of CFRP-wrapped concrete cylinders. The nonlinear behaviour of concrete in compression and the linear elastic behaviour of CFRP has been modeled using an appropriate constitutive relationship. A cohesive model has been developed for modeling the interface between the concrete and CFRP. The interaction and damage failure criteria between the concrete to the cohesive element and the cohesive element to the CFRP has also been accounted for in the modeling. The response behaviour of the wrapped concrete specimen has been compared with the proposed interface model and with a perfectly bonded condition. The results obtained from the present study showed good agreement with the experimental load-displacement response and the failure pattern in the literature. Further, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out to study the effect of the number of layers of CFRP on the concrete specimens. It has been observed that wrapping with two layers was found to be the optimum, beyond which the response becomes flexible but with a higher load-carrying capacity

  13. Constitutive Modeling and Numerical Simulation of Frp Confined Concrete Specimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smitha, Gopinath; Ramachandramurthy, Avadhanam; Nagesh, Ranganatha Iyer; Shahulhameed, Eduvammal Kunhimoideen

    2014-09-01

    Fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites are generally used for the seismic retrofit of concrete members to enhance their strength and ductility. In the present work, the confining effect of Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) composite layers has been investigated by numerical simulation. The numerical simulation has been carried out using nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the response behaviour of CFRP-wrapped concrete cylinders. The nonlinear behaviour of concrete in compression and the linear elastic behaviour of CFRP has been modeled using an appropriate constitutive relationship. A cohesive model has been developed for modeling the interface between the concrete and CFRP. The interaction and damage failure criteria between the concrete to the cohesive element and the cohesive element to the CFRP has also been accounted for in the modeling. The response behaviour of the wrapped concrete specimen has been compared with the proposed interface model and with a perfectly bonded condition. The results obtained from the present study showed good agreement with the experimental load-displacement response and the failure pattern in the literature. Further, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out to study the effect of the number of layers of CFRP on the concrete specimens. It has been observed that wrapping with two layers was found to be the optimum, beyond which the response becomes flexible but with a higher load-carrying capacity

  14. Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boiloff in Cryogenic Storage Tank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, A. K.; Steadman, T. E.; Maroney, J. L.

    2007-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) describes the thermal modeling effort undertaken at Marshall Space Flight Center to support the Cryogenic Test Laboratory at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for a study of insulation materials for cryogenic tanks in order to reduce propellant boiloff during long-term storage. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation program has been used to model boiloff in 1,000-L demonstration tanks built for testing the thermal performance of glass bubbles and perlite insulation. Numerical predictions of boiloff rate and ullage temperature have been compared with the measured data from the testing of demonstration tanks. A satisfactory comparison between measured and predicted data has been observed for both liquid nitrogen and hydrogen tests. Based on the experience gained with the modeling of the demonstration tanks, a numerical model of the liquid hydrogen storage tank at launch complex 39 at KSC was built. The predicted boiloff rate of hydrogen has been found to be in good agreement with observed field data. This TM describes three different models that have been developed during this period of study (March 2005 to June 2006), comparisons with test data, and results of parametric studies.

  15. A simplified model for TIG-dressing numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, P.; Berto, F.; James, M. N.

    2017-04-01

    Irrespective of the mechanical properties of the alloy to be welded, the fatigue strength of welded joints is primarily controlled by the stress concentration associated with the weld toe or weld root. In order to reduce the effects of such notch defects in welds, which are influenced by tensile properties of the alloy, post-weld improvement techniques have been developed. The two most commonly used techniques are weld toe grinding and TIG dressing, which are intended to both remove toe defects such as non-metallic intrusions and to re-profile the weld toe region to give a lower stress concentration. In the case of TIG dressing the weld toe is re-melted to provide a smoother transition between the plate and the weld crown and to beneficially modify the residual stress redistribution. Assessing the changes to weld stress state arising from TIG-dressing is most easily accomplished through a complex numerical simulation that requires coupled thermo-fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. However, this can be expensive in terms of computational cost and time needed to reach a solution. The present paper therefore proposes a simplified numerical model that overcomes such drawbacks and which simulates the remelted toe region by means of the activation and deactivation of elements in the numerical model.

  16. Numerical resolution of a model of tumour growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Ana I

    2016-03-01

    We consider and solve numerically a mathematical model of tumour growth based on cancer stem cells (CSC) hypothesis with the aim of gaining some insight into the relation of different processes leading to exponential growth in solid tumours and into the evolution of different subpopulations of cells. The model consists of four hyperbolic equations of first order to describe the evolution of four subpopulations of cells. A fifth equation is introduced to model the evolution of the moving boundary. The coefficients of the model represent the rates at which reactions occur. In order to integrate numerically the four hyperbolic equations, a formulation in terms of the total derivatives is posed. A finite element discretization is applied to integrate the model equations in space. Our numerical results suggest the existence of a pseudo-equilibrium state reached at the early stage of the tumour, for which the fraction of CSC remains small. We include the study of the behaviour of the solutions for longer times and we obtain that the solutions to the system of partial differential equations stabilize to homogeneous steady states whose values depend only on the values of the parameters. We show that CSC may comprise different proportions of the tumour, becoming, in some cases, the predominant type of cells within the tumour. We also obtain that possible effective measure to detain tumour progression should combine the targeting of CSC with the targeting of progenitor cells. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  17. Numerical Modelling of Solitary Wave Experiments on Rubble Mound Breakwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guler, H. G.; Arikawa, T.; Baykal, C.; Yalciner, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    Performance of a rubble mound breakwater protecting Haydarpasa Port, Turkey, has been tested under tsunami attack by physical model tests conducted at Port and Airport Research Institute (Guler et al, 2015). It is aimed to understand dynamic force of the tsunami by conducting solitary wave tests (Arikawa, 2015). In this study, the main objective is to perform numerical modelling of solitary wave tests in order to verify accuracy of the CFD model IHFOAM, developed in OpenFOAM environment (Higuera et al, 2013), by comparing results of the numerical computations with the experimental results. IHFOAM is the numerical modelling tool which is based on VARANS equations with a k-ω SST turbulence model including realistic wave generation, and active wave absorption. Experiments are performed using a Froude scale of 1/30, measuring surface elevation and flow velocity at several locations in the wave channel, and wave pressure around the crown wall of the breakwater. Solitary wave tests with wave heights of H=7.5 cm and H=10 cm are selected which represent the results of the experiments. The first test (H=7.5 cm) is the case that resulted in no damage whereas the second case (H=10 cm) resulted in total damage due to the sliding of the crown wall. After comparison of the preliminary results of numerical simulations with experimental data for both cases, it is observed that solitary wave experiments could be accurately modeled using IHFOAM focusing water surface elevations, flow velocities, and wave pressures on the crown wall of the breakwater (Figure, result of sim. at t=29.6 sec). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe authors acknowledge developers of IHFOAM, further extend their acknowledgements for the partial supports from the research projects MarDiM, ASTARTE, RAPSODI, and TUBITAK 213M534. REFERENCESArikawa (2015) "Consideration of Characteristics of Pressure on Seawall by Solitary Waves Based on Hydraulic Experiments", Jour. of Japan. Soc. of Civ. Eng. Ser. B2 (Coast. Eng.), Vol 71, p I

  18. Prognostic Modeling in Pathologic N1 Breast Cancer Without Elective Nodal Irradiation After Current Standard Systemic Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Won; Choi, Doo Ho; Huh, Seung Jae; Nam, Seok Jin; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kil, Won Ho; Im, Young-Hyuck; Ahn, Jin Seok; Park, Yeon Hee; Cho, Eun Yoon

    2015-08-01

    This study was conducted to establish a prognostic model in patients with pathologic N1 (pN1) breast cancer who have not undergone elective nodal irradiation (ENI) under the current standard management and to suggest possible indications for ENI. We performed a retrospective study with patients with pN1 breast cancer who received the standard local and preferred adjuvant chemotherapy treatment without neoadjuvant chemotherapy and ENI from January 2005 to June 2011. Most of the indicated patients received endocrine and trastuzumab therapy. In 735 enrolled patients, the median follow-up period was 58.4 months (range, 7.2-111.3 months). Overall, 55 recurrences (7.4%) developed, and locoregional recurrence was present in 27 patients (3.8%). Recurrence-free survival was significantly related to lymphovascular invasion (P = .04, hazard ratio [HR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.88), histologic grade (P = .03, HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.26), and nonluminal A subtype (P = .02, HR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.23-7.49) in multivariate analysis. The prognostic model was established by these 3 prognostic factors. Recurrence-free survival was less than 90% at 5 years in cases with 2 or 3 factors. The prognostic model has stratified risk groups in pN1 breast cancer without ENI. Patients with 2 or more factors should be considered for ENI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

  20. Cross-national validation of prognostic models predicting sickness absence and the added value of work environment variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné A M; Stapelfeldt, Christina M; Heymans, Martijn W; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V; Bültmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

    2015-06-01

    To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. 2,562 municipal eldercare workers (95% women) participated in the Working in Eldercare Survey. Predictor variables were measured by questionnaire at baseline in 2005. Prognostic models were validated for predictions of high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes retrieved from employer records during 1-year follow-up. The accuracy of predictions was assessed by calibration graphs and the ability of the models to discriminate between high- and low-risk workers was investigated by ROC-analysis. The added value of work environment variables was measured with Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). 1,930 workers had complete data for analysis. The models underestimated the risk of high SA in eldercare workers and the SA episodes model had to be re-calibrated to the Danish data. Discrimination was practically useful for the re-calibrated SA episodes model, but not the SA days model. Physical workload improved the SA days model (IDI = 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.60) and psychosocial work factors, particularly the quality of leadership (IDI = 0.70; 95% CI 053-0.86) improved the SA episodes model. The prognostic model predicting high SA days showed poor performance even after physical workload was added. The prognostic model predicting high SA episodes could be used to identify high-risk workers, especially when psychosocial work factors are added as predictor variables.

  1. Numerical modelling of extreme waves by Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Dao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of extreme/rogue waves can lead to serious damage of vessels as well as marine and coastal structures. Such extreme waves in deep water are characterized by steep wave fronts and an energetic wave crest. The process of wave breaking is highly complex and, apart from the general knowledge that impact loadings are highly impulsive, the dynamics of the breaking and impact are still poorly understood. Using an advanced numerical method, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics enhanced with parallel computing is able to reproduce well the extreme waves and their breaking process. Once the waves and their breaking process are modelled successfully, the dynamics of the breaking and the characteristics of their impact on offshore structures could be studied. The computational methodology and numerical results are presented in this paper.

  2. Induction and direct resistance heating theory and numerical modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lupi, Sergio; Aliferov, Aleksandr

    2015-01-01

    This book offers broad, detailed coverage of theoretical developments in induction and direct resistance heating and presents new material on the solution of problems in the application of such heating. The physical basis of induction and conduction heating processes is explained, and electromagnetic phenomena in direct resistance and induction heating of flat workpieces and cylindrical bodies are examined in depth. The calculation of electrical and energetic characteristics of induction and conduction heating systems is then thoroughly reviewed. The final two chapters consider analytical solutions and numerical modeling of problems in the application of induction and direct resistance heating, providing industrial engineers with the knowledge needed in order to use numerical tools in the modern design of installations. Other engineers, scientists, and technologists will find the book to be an invaluable reference that will assist in the efficient utilization of electrical energy.

  3. Numerical Modeling of Electroacoustic Logging Including Joule Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plyushchenkov, Boris D.; Nikitin, Anatoly A.; Turchaninov, Victor I.

    It is well known that electromagnetic field excites acoustic wave in a porous elastic medium saturated with fluid electrolyte due to electrokinetic conversion effect. Pride's equations describing this process are written in isothermal approximation. Update of these equations, which allows to take influence of Joule heating on acoustic waves propagation into account, is proposed here. This update includes terms describing the initiation of additional acoustic waves excited by thermoelastic stresses and the heat conduction equation with right side defined by Joule heating. Results of numerical modeling of several problems of propagation of acoustic waves excited by an electric field source with and without consideration of Joule heating effect in their statements are presented. From these results, it follows that influence of Joule heating should be taken into account at the numerical simulation of electroacoustic logging and at the interpretation of its log data.

  4. Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of oil pollution problems

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Written by outstanding experts in the fields of marine engineering, atmospheric physics and chemistry, fluid dynamics and applied mathematics, the contributions in this book cover a wide range of subjects, from pure mathematics to real-world applications in the oil spill engineering business. Offering a truly interdisciplinary approach, the authors present both mathematical models and state-of-the-art numerical methods for adequately solving the partial differential equations involved, as well as highly practical experiments involving actual cases of ocean oil pollution. It is indispensable that different disciplines of mathematics, like analysis and numerics,  together with physics, biology, fluid dynamics, environmental engineering and marine science, join forces to solve today’s oil pollution problems.   The book will be of great interest to researchers and graduate students in the environmental sciences, mathematics and physics, showing the broad range of techniques needed in order to solve these poll...

  5. Numerical modelling of wave current interactions at a local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teles, Maria João; Pires-Silva, António A.; Benoit, Michel

    2013-08-01

    The present work is focused on the evaluation of wave-current interactions through numerical simulations of combined wave and current flows with the Code_Saturne (Archambeau et al., 2004), an advanced CFD solver based on the RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) equations. The objectives of this paper are twofold. Firstly, changes in the mean horizontal velocity and the horizontal-velocity amplitude profiles are studied when waves are superposed on currents. The influence of various first and second order turbulence closure models is addressed. The results of the numerical simulations are compared to the experimental data of Klopman (1994) and Umeyama (2005). Secondly, a more detailed study of the shear stresses and the turbulence viscosity vertical profile changes is also pursued when waves and currents interact. This analysis is completed using the data from Umeyama (2005). A relationship between a non-dimensional parameter involving the turbulence viscosity and the Ursell number is subsequently proposed.

  6. Numerical modeling of shape memory alloy linear actuator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jani, Jaronie Mohd; Huang, Sunan; Leary, Martin; Subic, Aleksandar

    2015-09-01

    The demand for shape memory alloy (SMA) actuators in high-technology applications is increasing; however, there exist technical challenges to the commercial application of SMA actuator technologies, especially associated with actuation duration. Excessive activation duration results in actuator damage due to overheating while excessive deactivation duration is not practical for high-frequency applications. Analytical and finite difference equation models were developed in this work to predict the activation and deactivation durations and associated SMA thermomechanical behavior under variable environmental and design conditions. Relevant factors, including latent heat effect, induced stress and material property variability are accommodated. An existing constitutive model was integrated into the proposed models to generate custom SMA stress-strain curves. Strong agreement was achieved between the proposed numerical models and experimental results; confirming their applicability for predicting the behavior of SMA actuators with variable thermomechanical conditions.

  7. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Advanced Physical Oceanographic Numerical Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    1986-01-01

    This book is a direct result of the NATO Advanced Study Institute held in Banyuls-sur-mer, France, June 1985. The Institute had the same title as this book. It was held at Laboratoire Arago. Eighty lecturers and students from almost all NATO countries attended. The purpose was to review the state of the art of physical oceanographic numerical modelling including the parameterization of physical processes. This book represents a cross-section of the lectures presented at the ASI. It covers elementary mathematical aspects through large scale practical aspects of ocean circulation calculations. It does not encompass every facet of the science of oceanographic modelling. We have, however, captured most of the essence of mesoscale and large-scale ocean modelling for blue water and shallow seas. There have been considerable advances in modelling coastal circulation which are not included. The methods section does not include important material on phase and group velocity errors, selection of grid structures, advanc...

  8. Numerical modeling of spray combustion with an advanced VOF method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Sen; Shang, Huan-Min; Shih, Ming-Hsin; Liaw, Paul

    1995-01-01

    This paper summarizes the technical development and validation of a multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical method using the volume-of-fluid (VOF) model and a Lagrangian tracking model which can be employed to analyze general multiphase flow problems with free surface mechanism. The gas-liquid interface mass, momentum and energy conservation relationships are modeled by continuum surface mechanisms. A new solution method is developed such that the present VOF model can be applied for all-speed flow regimes. The objectives of the present study are to develop and verify the fractional volume-of-fluid cell partitioning approach into a predictor-corrector algorithm and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the present approach by simulating benchmark problems including laminar impinging jets, shear coaxial jet atomization and shear coaxial spray combustion flows.

  9. Numerical modelling of cuttings transport with foam in vertical wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Y.; Kuru, E. [University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-03-01

    Development of a one-dimensional unsteady-state mathematical model is described. The model was developed to simulate the transport of cuttings with foam in vertical wells. Numerical solution was used to predict average cuttings concentration in the well as a function of the drilling rate, the gas and the liquid injection rates, the rate of gas and liquid influx from the reservoir, and the borehole geometry. The effects of key drilling parameters on the efficiency of cuttings transport with foam in vertical wells was determined by sensitivity analyses. Verification of model predictions and the results of the sensitivity analyses are presented. The model is claimed to be useful in writing computer programs for design purposes to determine optimal volumetric gas/liquid flow rates, injection pressure and back pressure required to drill vertical wells. It can also be used to develop guidelines for use in operational control of cutting transport with foam. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 13 figs.

  10. The steady state of epidermis: mathematical modeling and numerical simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandolfi, Alberto; Iannelli, Mimmo; Marinoschi, Gabriela

    2016-12-01

    We consider a model with age and space structure for the epidermis evolution. The model, previously presented and analyzed with respect to the suprabasal epidermis, includes different types of cells (proliferating cells, differentiated cells, corneous cells, and apoptotic cells) moving with the same velocity, under the constraint that the local volume fraction occupied by the cells is constant in space and time. Here, we complete the model proposing a mechanism regulating the cell production in the basal layer and we focus on the stationary case of the problem, i.e. on the case corresponding to the normal status of the skin. A numerical scheme to compute the solution of the model is proposed and its convergence is studied. Simulations are provided for realistic values of the parameters, showing the possibility of reproducing the structure of both "thin" and "thick" epidermis.

  11. A note on prognostic accuracy evaluation of regression models applied to longitudinal autocorrelated binary data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Barbati

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Focus of this work was on evaluating the prognostic accuracy of two approaches for modelling binary longitudinal outcomes, a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE and a likelihood based method, Marginalized Transition Model (MTM, in which a transition model is combined with a marginal generalized linear model describing the average response as a function of measured predictors.Methods: A retrospective study on cardiovascular patients and a prospective study on sciatic pain were used to evaluate discrimination by computing the Area Under the Receiver-Operating-Characteristics curve, (AUC, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI and the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI at different time occasions. Calibration was also evaluated. A simulation study was run in order to compare model’s performance in a context of a perfect knowledge of the data generating mechanism. Results: Similar regression coefficients estimates and comparable calibration were obtained; an higher discrimination level for MTM was observed. No significant differences in calibration and MSE (Mean Square Error emerged in the simulation study, that instead confirmed the MTM higher discrimination level. Conclusions: The choice of the regression approach should depend on the scientific question being addressed, i.e. if the overall population-average and calibration or the subject-specific patterns and discrimination are the objectives of interest, and some recently proposed discrimination indices are useful in evaluating predictive accuracy also in a context of longitudinal studies.

  12. A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assi, Hazem I.; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. Results: There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. Conclusions: In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis. PMID:27217858

  13. Incorporating a prognostic representation of marine nitrogen fixers into the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina D.; Stemmler, Irene

    2017-03-01

    Nitrogen (N2) fixation is a major source of bioavailable nitrogen to the euphotic zone, thereby exerting an important control on ocean biogeochemical cycling. This paper presents the incorporation of prognostic N2 fixers into the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC), a component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Growth dynamics of N2 fixers in the model are based on physiological characteristics of the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. The applied temperature dependency confines diazotrophic growth and N2 fixation to the tropical and subtropical ocean roughly between 40°S and 40°N. Simulated large-scale spatial patterns compare well with observations, and the global N2 fixation rate of 135.6 Tg N yr-1 is within the range of current estimates. The vertical distribution of N2 fixation also matches well the observations, with a major fraction of about 85% occurring in the upper 20 m. The observed seasonal variability at the stations BATS and ALOHA is reasonably reproduced, with highest fixation rates in northern summer/fall. Iron limitation was found to be an important factor in controlling the simulated distribution of N2 fixation, especially in the Pacific Ocean. The new model component considerably improves the representation of present-day N2 fixation in HAMOCC. It provides the basis for further studies on the role of diazotrophs in global biogeochemical cycles, as well as on the response of N2 fixation to changing environmental conditions.

  14. A flexible alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model for assessing the prognostic accuracy of hospice patient survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Miladinovic

    Full Text Available Prognostic models are often used to estimate the length of patient survival. The Cox proportional hazards model has traditionally been applied to assess the accuracy of prognostic models. However, it may be suboptimal due to the inflexibility to model the baseline survival function and when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. The aim of this study was to use internal validation to compare the predictive power of a flexible Royston-Parmar family of survival functions with the Cox proportional hazards model. We applied the Palliative Performance Scale on a dataset of 590 hospice patients at the time of hospice admission. The retrospective data were obtained from the Lifepath Hospice and Palliative Care center in Hillsborough County, Florida, USA. The criteria used to evaluate and compare the models' predictive performance were the explained variation statistic R(2, scaled Brier score, and the discrimination slope. The explained variation statistic demonstrated that overall the Royston-Parmar family of survival functions provided a better fit (R(2 =0.298; 95% CI: 0.236-0.358 than the Cox model (R(2 =0.156; 95% CI: 0.111-0.203. The scaled Brier scores and discrimination slopes were consistently higher under the Royston-Parmar model. Researchers involved in prognosticating patient survival are encouraged to consider the Royston-Parmar model as an alternative to Cox.

  15. Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

    2014-02-01

    Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

  16. Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic in southwestern Johor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Wan Hasliza Wan; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hamid, Mohd. Radzi Abdul

    2014-09-01

    Tanjung Piai located at the southwest of Johor, Malaysia faces severe erosion since a few decades ago. Considering the condition in this particular area, understanding of its hydrodynamic behaviour should be clearly explained. Thus, a numerical modelling has been applied in this study in order to investigate the hydrodynamic of current flow along the study area. Hydrodynamic study was carried out by applying a numerical modelling of MIKE 21 software based on flexible mesh grids. The model generally described the current flow pattern in the study area corresponding to the several flows from surrounding water regime which are Malacca Strait, Singapore Strait and Java Sea. The interaction of various water flows in the area of Tanjung Piai which is located in the middle part of the meeting of the currents to have a very complicated hydrodynamic conditions. The study area generally experienced two tidal phase in a day as the water flows is greatly influenced by the adjacent water flow from Malacca and Singapore Straits. During first tidal cycle, the most dominant flow is influenced by a single water flow which is Malacca Strait for both ebbing and flooding event. The current velocity was generally higher during this first tidal phase particularly at the tips of Tanjung Piai where severe erosion is spotted. However, the second tidal phase gives different stress to the study area as the flow is relatively dominated by both Malacca and Singapore Straits. During this phase, the meeting of current from both straits can be discovered near to the Tanjung Piai as this occurrence makes relatively slower current velocity around the study area. Basically, the numerical modelling result in this study can be considered as basic information in describing the condition of study area as it would be very useful for extensive study especially the study of sediment transport and morphological processes in the coastal area.

  17. Elevated neutrophil and monocyte counts in peripheral blood are associated with poor survival in patients with metastatic melanoma: a prognostic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, H; Bastholt, L; Geertsen, P

    2005-01-01

    We aimed to create a prognostic model in metastatic melanoma based on independent prognostic factors in 321 patients receiving interleukin-2 (IL-2)-based immunotherapy with a median follow-up time for patients currently alive of 52 months (range 15-189 months). The patients were treated as part...... factors in univariate analyses. Subsequently, a multivariate Cox's regression analysis identified elevated LDH (P

  18. Numerical Comparison of Solutions of Kinetic Model Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Frolova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The collision integral approximation by different model equations has created a whole new trend in the theory of rarefied gas. One widely used model is the Shakhov model (S-model obtained by expansion of inverse collisions integral in a series of Hermite polynomials up to the third order. Using the same expansion with another value of free parameters leads to a linearized ellipsoidal statistical model (ESL.Both model equations (S and ESL have the same properties, as they give the correct relaxation of non-equilibrium stress tensor components and heat flux vector, the correct Prandtl number at the transition to the hydrodynamic regime and do not guarantee the positivity of the distribution function.The article presents numerical comparison of solutions of Shakhov equation, ESL- model and full Boltzmann equation in the four Riemann problems for molecules of hard spheres.We have considered the expansion of two gas flows, contact discontinuity, the problem of the gas counter-flows and the problem of the shock wave structure. For the numerical solution of the kinetic equations the method of discrete ordinates is used.The comparison shows that solution has a weak sensitivity to the form of collision operator in the problem of expansions of two gas flows and results obtained by the model and the kinetic Boltzmann equations coincide.In the problem of the contact discontinuity the solution of model equations differs from full kinetic solutions at the point of the initial discontinuity. The non-equilibrium stress tensor has the maximum errors, the error of the heat flux is much smaller, and the ESL - model gives the exact value of the extremum of heat flux.In the problems of gas counter-flows and shock wave structure the model equations give significant distortion profiles of heat flux and non-equilibrium stress tensor components in front of the shock waves. This behavior is due to fact that in the models under consideration there is no dependency of the

  19. System Interdependency Modeling in the Design of Prognostic and Health Management Systems in Smart Manufacturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinowski, M L; Beling, P A; Haimes, Y Y; LaViers, A; Marvel, J A; Weiss, B A

    2015-01-01

    The fields of risk analysis and prognostics and health management (PHM) have developed in a largely independent fashion. However, both fields share a common core goal. They aspire to manage future adverse consequences associated with prospective dysfunctions of the systems under consideration due to internal or external forces. This paper describes how two prominent risk analysis theories and methodologies - Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM) - can be adapted to support the design of PHM systems in the context of smart manufacturing processes. Specifically, the proposed methodologies will be used to identify targets - components, subsystems, or systems - that would most benefit from a PHM system in regards to achieving the following objectives: minimizing cost, minimizing production/maintenance time, maximizing system remaining usable life (RUL), maximizing product quality, and maximizing product output. HHM is a comprehensive modeling theory and methodology that is grounded on the premise that no system can be modeled effectively from a single perspective. It can also be used as an inductive method for scenario structuring to identify emergent forced changes (EFCs) in a system. EFCs connote trends in external or internal sources of risk to a system that may adversely affect specific states of the system. An important aspect of proactive risk management includes bolstering the resilience of the system for specific EFCs by appropriately controlling the states. Risk scenarios for specific EFCs can be the basis for the design of prognostic and diagnostic systems that provide real-time predictions and recognition of scenario changes. The HHM methodology includes visual modeling techniques that can enhance stakeholders' understanding of shared states, resources, objectives and constraints among the interdependent and interconnected subsystems of smart manufacturing systems. In risk analysis, HHM is often paired

  20. Prognostic models based on patient snapshots and time windows: Predicting disease progression to assisted ventilation in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreiro, André V; Amaral, Pedro M T; Pinto, Susana; Tomás, Pedro; de Carvalho, Mamede; Madeira, Sara C

    2015-12-01

    Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating disease and the most common neurodegenerative disorder of young adults. ALS patients present a rapidly progressive motor weakness. This usually leads to death in a few years by respiratory failure. The correct prediction of respiratory insufficiency is thus key for patient management. In this context, we propose an innovative approach for prognostic prediction based on patient snapshots and time windows. We first cluster temporally-related tests to obtain snapshots of the patient's condition at a given time (patient snapshots). Then we use the snapshots to predict the probability of an ALS patient to require assisted ventilation after k days from the time of clinical evaluation (time window). This probability is based on the patient's current condition, evaluated using clinical features, including functional impairment assessments and a complete set of respiratory tests. The prognostic models include three temporal windows allowing to perform short, medium and long term prognosis regarding progression to assisted ventilation. Experimental results show an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) in the test set of approximately 79% for time windows of 90, 180 and 365 days. Creating patient snapshots using hierarchical clustering with constraints outperforms the state of the art, and the proposed prognostic model becomes the first non population-based approach for prognostic prediction in ALS. The results are promising and should enhance the current clinical practice, largely supported by non-standardized tests and clinicians' experience. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Improvement of a 2D numerical model of lava flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishimine, Y.

    2013-12-01

    I propose an improved procedure that reduces an improper dependence of lava flow directions on the orientation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in two-dimensional simulations based on Ishihara et al. (in Lava Flows and Domes, Fink, JH eds., 1990). The numerical model for lava flow simulations proposed by Ishihara et al. (1990) is based on two-dimensional shallow water model combined with a constitutive equation for a Bingham fluid. It is simple but useful because it properly reproduces distributions of actual lava flows. Thus, it has been regarded as one of pioneer work of numerical simulations of lava flows and it is still now widely used in practical hazard prediction map for civil defense officials in Japan. However, the model include an improper dependence of lava flow directions on the orientation of DEM because the model separately assigns the condition for the lava flow to stop due to yield stress for each of two orthogonal axes of rectangular calculating grid based on DEM. This procedure brings a diamond-shaped distribution as shown in Fig. 1 when calculating a lava flow supplied from a point source on a virtual flat plane although the distribution should be circle-shaped. To improve the drawback, I proposed a modified procedure that uses the absolute value of yield stress derived from both components of two orthogonal directions of the slope steepness to assign the condition for lava flows to stop. This brings a better result as shown in Fig. 2. Fig. 1. (a) Contour plots calculated with the original model of Ishihara et al. (1990). (b) Contour plots calculated with a proposed model.

  2. Numerical modelling of electrochemical polarization around charged metallic particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bücker, Matthias; Undorf, Sabine; Flores Orozco, Adrián; Kemna, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    We extend an existing analytical model and carry out numerical simulations to study the polarization process around charged metallic particles immersed in an electrolyte solution. Electro-migration and diffusion processes in the electrolyte are described by the Poisson-Nernst-Planck system of partial differential equations. To model the surface charge density, we consider a time- and frequency-invariant electric potential at the particle surface, which leads to the build-up of a static electrical double layer (EDL). Upon excitation by an external electric field at low frequencies, we observe the superposition of two polarization processes. On the one hand, the induced dipole moment on the metallic particle leads to the accumulation of opposite charges in the electrolyte. This charge polarization corresponds to the long-known response of uncharged metallic particles. On the other hand, the unequal cation and anion concentrations in the EDL give rise to a salinity gradient between the two opposite sides of the metallic particle. The resulting concentration polarization enhances the magnitude of the overall polarization response. Furthermore, we use our numerical model to study the effect of relevant model parameters such as surface charge density and ionic strength of the electrolyte on the resulting spectra of the effective conductivity of the composite model system. Our results do not only give interesting new insight into the time-harmonic variation of electric potential and ion concentrations around charged metallic particle. They are also able to reduce incongruities between earlier model predictions and geophysical field and laboratory measurements. Our model thereby improves the general understanding of IP signatures of metallic particles and represents the next step towards a quantitative interpretation of IP imaging results. Part of this research is funded by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy under the Raw Materials Initiative.

  3. GPU Accelerated Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorospe, George E., Jr.; Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Ng, Eley

    2017-01-01

    Prognostic methods enable operators and maintainers to predict the future performance for critical systems. However, these methods can be computationally expensive and may need to be performed each time new information about the system becomes available. In light of these computational requirements, we have investigated the application of graphics processing units (GPUs) as a computational platform for real-time prognostics. Recent advances in GPU technology have reduced cost and increased the computational capability of these highly parallel processing units, making them more attractive for the deployment of prognostic software. We present a survey of model-based prognostic algorithms with considerations for leveraging the parallel architecture of the GPU and a case study of GPU-accelerated battery prognostics with computational performance results.

  4. Prognostic modeling of oral cancer by gene profiles and clinicopathological co-variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mes, Steven W; Te Beest, Dennis; Poli, Tito; Rossi, Silvia; Scheckenbach, Kathrin; van Wieringen, Wessel N; Brink, Arjen; Bertani, Nicoletta; Lanfranco, Davide; Silini, Enrico M; van Diest, Paul J; Bloemena, Elisabeth; Leemans, C René; van de Wiel, Mark A; Brakenhoff, Ruud H

    2017-08-29

    Accurate staging and outcome prediction is a major problem in clinical management of oral cancer patients, hampering high precision treatment and adjuvant therapy planning. Here, we have built and validated multivariable models that integrate gene signatures with clinical and pathological variables to improve staging and survival prediction of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Gene expression profiles from 249 human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative OSCCs were explored to identify a 22-gene lymph node metastasis signature (LNMsig) and a 40-gene overall survival signature (OSsig). To facilitate future clinical implementation and increase performance, these signatures were transferred to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays and validated in an independent cohort of 125 HPV-negative tumors. When applied in the clinically relevant subgroup of early-stage (cT1-2N0) OSCC, the LNMsig could prevent overtreatment in two-third of the patients. Additionally, the integration of RT-qPCR gene signatures with clinical and pathological variables provided accurate prognostic models for oral cancer, strongly outperforming TNM. Finally, the OSsig gene signature identified a subpopulation of patients, currently considered at low-risk for disease-related survival, who showed an unexpected poor prognosis. These well-validated models will assist in personalizing primary treatment with respect to neck dissection and adjuvant therapies.

  5. LED-based Photometric Stereo: Modeling, Calibration and Numerical Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quéau, Yvain; Durix, Bastien; Wu, Tao

    2018-01-01

    We conduct a thorough study of photometric stereo under nearby point light source illumination, from modeling to numerical solution, through calibration. In the classical formulation of photometric stereo, the luminous fluxes are assumed to be directional, which is very difficult to achieve...... in practice. Rather, we use light-emitting diodes to illuminate the scene to be reconstructed. Such point light sources are very convenient to use, yet they yield a more complex photometric stereo model which is arduous to solve. We first derive in a physically sound manner this model, and show how...... approach is not established. The second one directly recovers the depth, by formulating photometric stereo as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), which are linearized using image ratios. Although the sequential approach is avoided, initialization matters a lot and convergence...

  6. New method to obtain GRIN-lenses through numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wern, Harald; Funk, Clemens

    2000-06-01

    A new technique to produce a radial gradient in the refractive index in organic-inorganic nanocomposite materials using sol- gel techniques in combination with electrophoretically induced concentration profiles of oxide nanoparticles is presented. Electric charges of the ZrO2 nanoparticle surface force the particles to diffuse in the gel state in the presence of an electric field employed by appropriate electrodes. In a previous study is has been shown that there exists a linear relation between the refractive index and the concentration of the oxide particles. In this paper the emphasis is focused to the development of appropriate electrodes through numerical modeling. The underlying time dependent parabolic partial differential equation is solved numerically using implicit methods. For the electric potential, a parametric model is assumed from which the spatial dependent electric field follows by gradient expansion. The parameters of the model are optimized using an iterative modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to match with the prescribed refractive index. The results of this new approach are discussed.

  7. Avoiding nerve stimulation in irreversible electroporation: a numerical modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercadal, Borja; Arena, Christopher B.; Davalos, Rafael V.; Ivorra, Antoni

    2017-10-01

    Electroporation based treatments consist in applying one or multiple high voltage pulses to the tissues to be treated. As an undesired side effect, these pulses cause electrical stimulation of excitable tissues such as nerves and muscles. This increases the complexity of the treatments and may pose a risk to the patient. To minimize electrical stimulation during electroporation based treatments, it has been proposed to replace the commonly used monopolar pulses by bursts of short bipolar pulses. In the present study, we have numerically analyzed the rationale for such approach. We have compared different pulsing protocols in terms of their electroporation efficacy and their capability of triggering action potentials in nerves. For that, we have developed a modeling framework that combines numerical models of nerve fibers and experimental data on irreversible electroporation. Our results indicate that, by replacing the conventional relatively long monopolar pulses by bursts of short bipolar pulses, it is possible to ablate a large tissue region without triggering action potentials in a nearby nerve. Our models indicate that this is possible because, as the pulse length of these bipolar pulses is reduced, the stimulation thresholds raise faster than the irreversible electroporation thresholds. We propose that this different dependence on the pulse length is due to the fact that transmembrane charging for nerve fibers is much slower than that of cells treated by electroporation because of their geometrical differences.

  8. Numerical model for unsteady airflow in inclined human trachea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alnussairy, Esam A.; Bakheet, Ahmed; Mustapha, Norzieha; Amin, Norsarahaida

    2017-04-01

    Achieving an accurate and efficient model for inclined bed therapy is ever-demanding. A new mathematical model for simulating airflow inside human trachea under resting and normal breathing scenario, where the influence of inclination angle on the unsteady flow is determined. The governing equations of motion consisting of unsteady, nonlinear, non-homogenous, Navier-Stokes equations are derived and numerically solved using the Marker and Cell method in Matlab code. Two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate system with appropriate initial and boundary conditions are used. The discretization is performed on uniform staggered grids. The pressure is calculated iteratively using the Successive-Over-Relaxation method. Quantities including the wall pressure, pressure drop, axial and radial velocity, volumetric flow rate, flow resistance and streamlines of airflow patterns are computed. The computed axial velocities for the horizontal position are agreed when compared with other experimental and numerical findings. An increase in the inclination angle is found to diminish the pressure drop inside the trachea. Thus, it generated a higher negative pressure in the lungs. Simulation results are demonstrated to be accurate when compared with the real situation. Excellent features of the results suggest that the proposed model based simulation procedure may contribute towards the development of precise and effective inclined bed therapy.

  9. Numerical verification of substrate current model in silicon IGFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faricelli, John; Gildenblat, Gennady

    1987-06-01

    With the advent of near and sub-micrometer scaled MOS devices, understanding the physics of substrate current generation has become more important. The results of extensive two-dimensional numerical simulation are presented in order to clarify the underlying physics of substrate current generation by weak avalanche in the drain region of IGFETs. We then use simulation to understand why one-dimensional analytic models for substrate current manage to describe this complicated generation mechanism in a reasonable fashion. In particular it is shown that the electron-hole pair production in short-channel devices is strongly localized close to the surface, which leads to the approximate agreement with one-dimensional models. A significant deviation from this pattern is found however for long channel devices and/or small gate voltages. The spatial distribution of the generation rate, current density and components of electric field is investigated for different impurity profiles and bias conditions. The results of the numerical simulation are compared with a one-dimensional model.

  10. Why Do We Need 3-d Numerical Models of Subduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morra, G.; Faccenna, C.; Funiciello, F.; Giardini, D.; Regenauer-Lieb, K.

    We use a set of 2-D and 3-D numerical fluid dynamic experiments, modeled with different strain rate dependent rheologies (viscous, visco-plastic, power law) to ana- lyze the long-term dynamics of the subduction of an oceanic slab into an iso-viscous or stratified mantle. For the lithosphere a fluid dynamic approach has been bench- marked with our previous solid mechanical approach with the aim of overcoming the coherency problem of fluid dynamic calculations. The solid mechanical dichotomy Sstrong before failure and weak where it failsT has been cast into a specialized non- & cedil;linear fluid rheology. Analog 2-D and 3-D experiments are finally compared with the numerical experiments. 2-D numerical experiments are considered with and without free surface to investigate the limitations induced by a closed top boundary. The effect of asymmetric boundary conditions (with and without overriding plate) is analyzed with respect to the possibility of trench retreat. We clearly state the importance for the free surface analysis. 2-D experiments have inherent weaknesses: first they provide an unrealistic simulation of mantle flow (suppression of toroidal flow), second they give rise to the Sclosed boxT problem (interaction of the slab with a boundary, i.e. & cedil;660 km and the left and right box boundaries). 3-D numerical experiments permit to overcome these problems. A natural analysis of the behavior of the mantle flow during subduction and the three-dimensional behavior of the slab is thus possible. Physical observables like trench retreat and toroidal and poloidal flow are compared with the results of our companion analog 3-D experiments.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Multi-Material Active Magnetic Regeneration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Engelbrecht, Kurt; Bahl, Christian Robert Haffenden

    2009-01-01

    and the specific heat as a function of temperature at constant magnetic field. A 2.5-dimensional numerical model of an active magnetic regenerative (AMR) refrigerator device is presented. The experimental AMR located at Risø DTU has been equipped with a parallel-plate based regenerator made of the two materials......Magnetic refrigeration is a potentially environmentally-friendly alternative to vapour compression technology that is presented in this paper. The magnetocaloric effect in two magnetocaloric compounds in the La(Fe,Co,Si)13 series is presented in terms of their adiabatic temperature change...

  12. Thrombosis modeling in intracranial aneurysms: a lattice Boltzmann numerical algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouared, R.; Chopard, B.; Stahl, B.; Rüfenacht, D. A.; Yilmaz, H.; Courbebaisse, G.

    2008-07-01

    The lattice Boltzmann numerical method is applied to model blood flow (plasma and platelets) and clotting in intracranial aneurysms at a mesoscopic level. The dynamics of blood clotting (thrombosis) is governed by mechanical variations of shear stress near wall that influence platelets-wall interactions. Thrombosis starts and grows below a shear rate threshold, and stops above it. Within this assumption, it is possible to account qualitatively well for partial, full or no occlusion of the aneurysm, and to explain why spontaneous thrombosis is more likely to occur in giant aneurysms than in small or medium sized aneurysms.

  13. Numerical Methods for the Lévy LIBOR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papapantoleon, Antonis; Skovmand, David

    The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the Lévy LIBOR model of Eberlein and Özkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods...... reduce this growth from exponential to quadratic in an approximation using truncated expansions of the product terms. We include numerical illustrations of the accuracy and speed of our method pricing caplets, swaptions and forward rate agreements....

  14. A Numerical Impact Ejecta Model for the Deep Impact Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J. E.; Melosh, H. J.

    2002-09-01

    In July of 2005, the Deep Impact spacecraft will release a 370 kg impactor into the path of comet 9P/Tempel 1, and then move to a save distance to observe the resulting collision and it's effects. As part of the mission planning for this event, we have developed a numerical, Monte-Carlo simulation which models (via ``tracer particles") the ejecta plume, ejecta blanket, and impact crater area resulting from a specified impact on an irregularly shaped target body (modeled in 3-dimensional polygon fashion). The target body can be placed in a simple rotation state about one of its principal axes, with the impact site and projectile/target parameters selected by the user. The model is based upon the impact ejecta scaling laws developed by Housen, Schmidt, and Holsapple (1983), modified to more properly simulate late-stage ejection velocities and ejecta plume shape changes (ejection angle variations). Additionally, a target strength parameter has been added to allow the simulation of strength-dominated cratering events as well as the more familiar gravity-dominated cratering events. This model has two primary uses: (1) Coupled with an appropriate display module, it will be used in planning the instrument image sequences for the comet flyby spacecraft, allowing us to simulate the acquired images from a number of possible impact scenarios. (2) It will provide a method for directly modeling the behavior of the actually observed ejecta plume, which will then be used to estimate the mass/density of Temple 1 based upon the effects of the comet's gravity field on crater formation and ejecta plume behavior. In addition, measurements of the observed ejecta plume size and expansion velocity as a function of time can be compared to a family of expected behavior curves produced by our numerical model, in order to improve this mass/density estimation.

  15. Development of orthogonal 2-dimensional numerical code TFC2D for fluid flow with various turbulence models and numerical schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Ju Yeop; In, Wang Kee; Chun, Tae Hyun; Oh, Dong Seok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    The development of orthogonal 2-dimensional numerical code is made. The present code contains 9 kinds of turbulence models that are widely used. They include a standard k-{epsilon} model and 8 kinds of low Reynolds number ones. They also include 6 kinds of numerical schemes including 5 kinds of low order schemes and 1 kind of high order scheme such as QUICK. To verify the present numerical code, pipe flow, channel flow and expansion pipe flow are solved by this code with various options of turbulence models and numerical schemes and the calculated outputs are compared to experimental data. Furthermore, the discretization error that originates from the use of standard k-{epsilon} turbulence model with wall function is much more diminished by introducing a new grid system than a conventional one in the present code. 23 refs., 58 figs., 6 tabs. (Author)

  16. Numerical modeling of coanda effect in a novel propulsive system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Das

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Coanda effect (adhesion of jet flow over curved surface is fundamental characteristics of jet flow. In the present paper, we carried out numerical simulations to investigate Coanda flow over a curved surface and its application in a newly proposed Propulsive system "A.C.H.E.O.N" (Aerial Coanda High Efficiency Orienting jet Nozzle which supports thrust vectoring. The ACHEON system is presently being proposed for propelling a new V/STOL airplane in European Union. This system is based on cumulative effects of three physical effects such as (1 High speed jet mixing speeds (2 Coanda effect control by electrostatic fields (3 Coanda effect adhesion of an high speed jet to a convex surface. The performance of this nozzle can be enhanced by increasing the jet deflection angle of synthetic jet over the Coanda surface. This newly proposed nozzle has wide range of applications. It can be used in industrial sector such as plasma spray gun and for direct injection in combustion chamber to enhance the efficiency of the combustion chamber. Also, we studied the effect of Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators on A.C.H.E.O.N system. Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD plasma actuators are active control devices for controlling boundary layer and to delay the flow separation over any convex surfaces. Computations were performed under subsonic condition. Two dimensional CFD calculations were carried out using Reynolds averaged Navier stokes equations (RANS. A numerical method based on finite volume formulation (FVM was used. SST k-ω model was considered to model turbulent flow inside nozzle. DBD model was used to model the plasma. Moreover, a body force treatment was devised to model the effect of plasma and its coupling with the fluid. This preliminary result shows that, the presence of plasma near Coanda surface accelerates the flow and delays the separation and enhances the efficiency of the nozzle.

  17. Prognostic scoring systems for mortality in intensive care units--the APACHE model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niewiński, Grzegorz; Starczewska, Małgorzata; Kański, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) scoring system is time consuming. The mean time for introducing a patient's data to APACHE IV is 37.3 min. Nevertheless, statisticians have known for years that the higher the number of variables the mathematical model describes, the more accurate the model. Because of the necessity of gathering data over a 24-hour period and of determining one cause for ICU admission, the system is troublesome and prone to mistakes. The evolution of the APACHE scoring system is an example of unfulfilled hopes for accurately estimating the risk of death for patients admitted to the ICU; satisfactory prognostic effects resulting from the use of APACHE II and III have been recently studied in patients undergoing liver transplantations. Because no increase in the predictive properties of successive versions has been observed, the search for other solutions continues. The APACHE IV scoring system is helpful; however, its use without prepared spreadsheets is almost impractical. Therefore, although many years have passed since its original publication, APACHE II or its extension APACHE III is currently used in clinical practice.

  18. Numerical modelling of pullout of helical soil nail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Rawat

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available An investigation into the pullout response of helical soil nail using finite element subroutine Plaxis 2D is presented. The numerical modelling of actual pullout response is achieved by axisymmetric and horizontal loading condition. The effect of varying number of helical plates, helical plate spacing and helical plate diameter is studied to understand the pullout capacity behaviour. The failure surfaces for various helical soil nail configurations and their pullout mechanisms are also analysed and discussed. The pullout capacity is found to increase with increase in number of helical plates. The helical plate spacing ratio (s/Dh and diameter ratio (Dh/Ds are found to increase the pullout only up to a critical value. The response of helical soil nail using axisymmetric finite element simulation is found similar to the uplift behaviour of helical piles and helical soil anchors. In the absence of literature regarding numerical modelling of helical soil nail, simulation results are validated with uplift responses of helical piles and soil anchors. A good agreement in their comparative study for pullout response is also observed.

  19. Exercises in 80223 Numerical Modelling of Thermal Processing of Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Jens Ole

    This exercise book contains exercise instructions for the 7 compulsory exercises (Exercise 1-7) and the final exercise (Exercise 8) in the course 80223 'Numerical Modelling of Thermal Processing of Materials'. The exercise book also contains written program examples in 'C' and 'Pascal'. Finally, ...... by contacting the secretary on the ground floor of building 425. Please give the following number: TM 99.05 (TM = Thermal processing of Materials)......This exercise book contains exercise instructions for the 7 compulsory exercises (Exercise 1-7) and the final exercise (Exercise 8) in the course 80223 'Numerical Modelling of Thermal Processing of Materials'. The exercise book also contains written program examples in 'C' and 'Pascal'. Finally......, guidelines are given on how to write the report which has to be handed in at the end of the course. The exercise book exists in a newer, updated version from 2000. The original copy is kept in the archives of TM on the ground floor of building 425. A copy of the exercise book can be made available...

  20. Numerical model for the investigation of countercurrent chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhao-Hui; Wang, Bing; Liang, Yi-Zeng; Xie, Gui-Xiang; Ren, Xiao-Mei

    2011-05-01

    A numerical model is developed to describe the separation process of countercurrent chromatography (CCC) in this work. The theory of countercurrent extraction table (TCCET) is first proposed to calculate concentration distributions of chemical components in the CCC, which is essential for a numerical model to describe the dynamic equilibrium of mass transfer. According to the theory of countercurrent extraction, the concentration in chromatography obeys binomial distribution, while the outflow from the n-th stage is a negative binomial distribution. As a result of the central limit theorem, they will obey normal distribution for sufficiently large n. Row-stage ratio (R(RS)) is then defined to determine the K value or retention time because it has a linear relationship to K value and retention time. The stage for a certain K value can be subsequently obtained with a very simple form, n(k)=1/(2piq(k)X(2)(k, max)), which can be calculated from the peak height obtained from experiments. Finally, the actual stage for a separation chromatogram can be acquired with using this simple expression. The agreement between theoretic and experimental results is quite satisfactory in the normal-phase and reversed-phase elution mode. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Numerical Modelling of Double-Steel Plate Composite Shear Walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Elmatzoglou

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Double-steel plate concrete composite shear walls are being used for nuclear plants and high-rise buildings. They consist of thick concrete walls, exterior steel faceplates serving as reinforcement and shear connectors, which guarantee the composite action between the two different materials. Several researchers have used the Finite Element Method to investigate the behaviour of double-steel plate concrete walls. The majority of them model every element explicitly leading to a rather time-consuming solution, which cannot be easily used for design purposes. In the present paper, the main objective is the introduction of a three-dimensional finite element model, which can efficiently predict the overall performance of a double-steel plate concrete wall in terms of accuracy and time saving. At first, empirical formulations and design relations established in current design codes for shear connectors are evaluated. Then, a simplified finite element model is used to investigate the nonlinear response of composite walls. The developed model is validated using results from tests reported in the literature in terms of axial compression and monotonic, cyclic in-plane shear loading. Several finite element modelling issues related to potential convergence problems, loading strategies and computer efficiency are also discussed. The accuracy and simplicity of the proposed model make it suitable for further numerical studies on the shear connection behaviour at the steel-concrete interface.

  2. A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafaysse, Matthieu; Cluzet, Bertrand; Dumont, Marie; Lejeune, Yves; Vionnet, Vincent; Morin, Samuel

    2017-05-01

    Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications.

  3. Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent J Gnanapragasam

    2016-08-01

    new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001. Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1, a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75], and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49] (p < 0.0001. High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80] and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67] (p < 0.0001, respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77 versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71 (p < 0.0001. In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84 for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69 (p < 0.0001 for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short.A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate

  4. Monte Carlo Numerical Models for Nuclear Logging Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fusheng Li

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear logging is one of most important logging services provided by many oil service companies. The main parameters of interest are formation porosity, bulk density, and natural radiation. Other services are also provided from using complex nuclear logging tools, such as formation lithology/mineralogy, etc. Some parameters can be measured by using neutron logging tools and some can only be measured by using a gamma ray tool. To understand the response of nuclear logging tools, the neutron transport/diffusion theory and photon diffusion theory are needed. Unfortunately, for most cases there are no analytical answers if complex tool geometry is involved. For many years, Monte Carlo numerical models have been used by nuclear scientists in the well logging industry to address these challenges. The models have been widely employed in the optimization of nuclear logging tool design, and the development of interpretation methods for nuclear logs. They have also been used to predict the response of nuclear logging systems for forward simulation problems. In this case, the system parameters including geometry, materials and nuclear sources, etc., are pre-defined and the transportation and interactions of nuclear particles (such as neutrons, photons and/or electrons in the regions of interest are simulated according to detailed nuclear physics theory and their nuclear cross-section data (probability of interacting. Then the deposited energies of particles entering the detectors are recorded and tallied and the tool responses to such a scenario are generated. A general-purpose code named Monte Carlo N– Particle (MCNP has been the industry-standard for some time. In this paper, we briefly introduce the fundamental principles of Monte Carlo numerical modeling and review the physics of MCNP. Some of the latest developments of Monte Carlo Models are also reviewed. A variety of examples are presented to illustrate the uses of Monte Carlo numerical models

  5. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  6. A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

  7. Analytical and numerical performance models of a Heisenberg Vortex Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunge, C. D.; Cavender, K. A.; Matveev, K. I.; Leachman, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Analytical and numerical investigations of a Heisenberg Vortex Tube (HVT) are performed to estimate the cooling potential with cryogenic hydrogen. The Ranque-Hilsch Vortex Tube (RHVT) is a device that tangentially injects a compressed fluid stream into a cylindrical geometry to promote enthalpy streaming and temperature separation between inner and outer flows. The HVT is the result of lining the inside of a RHVT with a hydrogen catalyst. This is the first concept to utilize the endothermic heat of para-orthohydrogen conversion to aid primary cooling. A review of 1st order vortex tube models available in the literature is presented and adapted to accommodate cryogenic hydrogen properties. These first order model predictions are compared with 2-D axisymmetric Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations.

  8. Advanced Combustion Numerics and Modeling - FY18 First Quarter Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitesides, R. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Killingsworth, N. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); McNenly, M. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Petitpas, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-01-05

    This project is focused on early stage research and development of numerical methods and models to improve advanced engine combustion concepts and systems. The current focus is on development of new mathematics and algorithms to reduce the time to solution for advanced combustion engine design using detailed fuel chemistry. The research is prioritized towards the most time-consuming workflow bottlenecks (computer and human) and accuracy gaps that slow ACS program members. Zero-RK, the fast and accurate chemical kinetics solver software developed in this project, is central to the research efforts and continues to be developed to address the current and emerging needs of the engine designers, engine modelers and fuel mechanism developers.

  9. Numerical modelling of nonlinear full-wave acoustic propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Velasco-Segura, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.velasco@ccadet.unam.mx; Rendón, Pablo L., E-mail: pablo.rendon@ccadet.unam.mx [Grupo de Acústica y Vibraciones, Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y Desarrollo Tecnológico, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Apartado Postal 70-186, C.P. 04510, México D.F., México (Mexico)

    2015-10-28

    The various model equations of nonlinear acoustics are arrived at by making assumptions which permit the observation of the interaction with propagation of either single or joint effects. We present here a form of the conservation equations of fluid dynamics which are deduced using slightly less restrictive hypothesis than those necessary to obtain the well known Westervelt equation. This formulation accounts for full wave diffraction, nonlinearity, and thermoviscous dissipative effects. A two-dimensional, finite-volume method using Roe’s linearisation has been implemented to obtain numerically the solution of the proposed equations. This code, which has been written for parallel execution on a GPU, can be used to describe moderate nonlinear phenomena, at low Mach numbers, in domains as large as 100 wave lengths. Applications range from models of diagnostic and therapeutic HIFU, to parametric acoustic arrays and nonlinear propagation in acoustic waveguides. Examples related to these applications are shown and discussed.

  10. A guide to numerical modelling in systems biology

    CERN Document Server

    Deuflhard, Peter

    2015-01-01

    This book is intended for students of computational systems biology with only a limited background in mathematics. Typical books on systems biology merely mention algorithmic approaches, but without offering a deeper understanding. On the other hand, mathematical books are typically unreadable for computational biologists. The authors of the present book have worked hard to fill this gap. The result is not a book on systems biology, but on computational methods in systems biology. This book originated from courses taught by the authors at Freie Universität Berlin. The guiding idea of the courses was to convey those mathematical insights that are indispensable for systems biology, teaching the necessary mathematical prerequisites by means of many illustrative examples and without any theorems. The three chapters cover the mathematical modelling of biochemical and physiological processes, numerical simulation of the dynamics of biological networks, and identification of model parameters by means of comparisons...

  11. A Numerical Model for a Floating TLP Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumari Ramachandran, Gireesh Kumar Vasanta

    A numerical model is developed for a TLP configuration of a floating offshore wind turbine. The platform dynamics and hydrodynamic forces are derived and implemented in an advanced aero-elastic code, Flex5, to compute the hydro-aero-servo-elastic loads and responses on the floater and the wind...... turbine. This is achieved through three steps. In the first step, an independent 2D code with fourteen degrees of freedom (DOFs) is developed and the responses are verified for load cases concerning steady and spatially coherent turbulent wind with regular and irregular waves. In the second step, the 2D...... irregular waves. In addition, the effect of wind-wave misalignment is investigated. Further, in the third step, the 3D platform dynamics and wave loading are implemented into Flex5, resulting in a fully coupled hydro-aero-servo-elastic code. The implementation is tested to make the model reliable and robust...

  12. Testing Numerical Modeling of Phase Coarsening by Microgravity Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K. G.; Glicksman, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative understanding of the morphological evolution that occurs during phase coarsening is crucial for optimization of processing procedures to control the final structure and properties of multiphase materials. Generally, ground-based experimental studies of phase coarsening in solids are limited to model alloy systems. Data from microgravity experiments on phase coarsening in Sn-Pb solid-liquid mixtures, executed on the International Space Station, are archived in NASA's Physical Sciences Informatics (PSI) system. In such microgravity experiments, it is expected that the rate of sedimentation will be greatly reduced compared with terrestrial conditions, allowing the kinetics of phase coarsening to be followed more carefully and accurately. In this work we tested existing numerical models of phase coarsening using NASA's PSI microgravity data. Specially, we compared the microstructures derived from phase-field and multiparticle diffusion simulations with those observed in microgravity experiments.

  13. Numerical modeling and analysis of the active magnetic regenerator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein

    of the AMR. The model simulates a regenerator made of parallel plates. The operating parameters, such as uid ow rates, thermal utilization, magnetocaloric properties etc. are varied as are geometric properties such as plate and channel thickness, regenerator length and porosity. In this way the performance...... expressed as temperature span versus cooling power is mapped as a function of the central parameters. Since regenerators built of several magnetic materials distinguished by their respective magnetic transition temperatures are reported to perform better than single-material AMRs this concept has been...... investigated using the numerical AMR model. The results show indeed that the performance may be enhanced signicantly and it may thus be concluded that the performance of the AMR is dependent on a vast number of parameters (material composition, magnetic eld source, regenerator geometry, regenerator eciency...

  14. A mathematical model and numerical method for thermoelectric DNA sequencing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Liwei; Guilbeau, Eric J.; Nestorova, Gergana; Dai, Weizhong

    2014-05-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are single base pair variations within the genome that are important indicators of genetic predisposition towards specific diseases. This study explores the feasibility of SNP detection using a thermoelectric sequencing method that measures the heat released when DNA polymerase inserts a deoxyribonucleoside triphosphate into a DNA strand. We propose a three-dimensional mathematical model that governs the DNA sequencing device with a reaction zone that contains DNA template/primer complex immobilized to the surface of the lower channel wall. The model is then solved numerically. Concentrations of reactants and the temperature distribution are obtained. Results indicate that when the nucleoside is complementary to the next base in the DNA template, polymerization occurs lengthening the complementary polymer and releasing thermal energy with a measurable temperature change, implying that the thermoelectric conceptual device for sequencing DNA may be feasible for identifying specific genes in individuals.

  15. Numerical modeling and optimization of machining duplex stainless steels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rastee D. Koyee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The shortcomings of the machining analytical and empirical models in combination with the industry demands have to be fulfilled. A three-dimensional finite element modeling (FEM introduces an attractive alternative to bridge the gap between pure empirical and fundamental scientific quantities, and fulfill the industry needs. However, the challenging aspects which hinder the successful adoption of FEM in the machining sector of manufacturing industry have to be solved first. One of the greatest challenges is the identification of the correct set of machining simulation input parameters. This study presents a new methodology to inversely calculate the input parameters when simulating the machining of standard duplex EN 1.4462 and super duplex EN 1.4410 stainless steels. JMatPro software is first used to model elastic–viscoplastic and physical work material behavior. In order to effectively obtain an optimum set of inversely identified friction coefficients, thermal contact conductance, Cockcroft–Latham critical damage value, percentage reduction in flow stress, and Taylor–Quinney coefficient, Taguchi-VIKOR coupled with Firefly Algorithm Neural Network System is applied. The optimization procedure effectively minimizes the overall differences between the experimentally measured performances such as cutting forces, tool nose temperature and chip thickness, and the numerically obtained ones at any specified cutting condition. The optimum set of input parameter is verified and used for the next step of 3D-FEM application. In the next stage of the study, design of experiments, numerical simulations, and fuzzy rule modeling approaches are employed to optimize types of chip breaker, insert shapes, process conditions, cutting parameters, and tool orientation angles based on many important performances. Through this study, not only a new methodology in defining the optimal set of controllable parameters for turning simulations is introduced, but also

  16. Clinical Risk Factors and Prognostic Model for Primary Graft Dysfunction after Lung Transplantation in Patients with Pulmonary Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porteous, Mary K; Lee, James C; Lederer, David J; Palmer, Scott M; Cantu, Edward; Shah, Rupal J; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Lama, Vibha N; Bhorade, Sangeeta M; Crespo, Maria M; McDyer, John F; Wille, Keith M; Localio, A Russell; Orens, Jonathan B; Shah, Pali D; Weinacker, Ann B; Arcasoy, Selim; Wilkes, David S; Ware, Lorraine B; Christie, Jason D; Kawut, Steven M; Diamond, Joshua M

    2017-10-01

    Pulmonary hypertension from pulmonary arterial hypertension or parenchymal lung disease is associated with an increased risk for primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation. We evaluated the clinical determinants of severe primary graft dysfunction in pulmonary hypertension and developed and validated a prognostic model. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients in the multicenter Lung Transplant Outcomes Group with pulmonary hypertension at transplant listing. Severe primary graft dysfunction was defined as PaO2/FiO2 ≤200 with allograft infiltrates at 48 or 72 hours after transplantation. Donor, recipient, and operative characteristics were evaluated in a multivariable explanatory model. A prognostic model derived using donor and recipient characteristics was then validated in a separate cohort. In the explanatory model of 826 patients with pulmonary hypertension, donor tobacco smoke exposure, higher recipient body mass index, female sex, listing mean pulmonary artery pressure, right atrial pressure and creatinine at transplant, cardiopulmonary bypass use, transfusion volume, and reperfusion fraction of inspired oxygen were associated with primary graft dysfunction. Donor obesity was associated with a lower risk for primary graft dysfunction. Using a 20% threshold for elevated risk, the prognostic model had good negative predictive value in both derivation and validation cohorts (89.1% [95% confidence interval, 85.3-92.8] and 83.3% [95% confidence interval, 78.5-88.2], respectively), but low positive predictive value. Several recipient, donor, and operative characteristics were associated with severe primary graft dysfunction in patients with pulmonary hypertension, including several risk factors not identified in the overall transplant population. A prognostic model with donor and recipient clinical risk factors alone had low positive predictive value, but high negative predictive value, to rule out high risk for primary graft dysfunction.

  17. Numerical modeling of multiphase flow in rough and propped fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabrowski, Marcin; Dzikowski, Michał; Jasinski, Lukasz; Olkiewicz, Piotr

    2017-04-01

    crystalline rocks. The detailed pattern of flow paths and effective fracture conductivity are largely dependent on the level of confining stresses and fracture wall roughness, which both determine the shape and distribution of fracture apertures and contact areas. The distribution of proppant grains, which are used to maintain apertures of hydraulic fractures, is a key factor governing fracture flow in industrial applications. The flow of multiphase fluids in narrow apertures of rock fractures may substantially differ from the flow of a single-phase fluid. For example, multiphase flow effects play an important role during all stages of unconventional reservoir life cycle. Multiphase flow conditions are also expected to prevail in high temperature geothermal fields and during the transport of non aqueous phase liquid contaminants in groundwaters. We use direct numerical simulations to study single- and multiphase flow in rough and propped fractures. We compute the fluid flow using either the finite element or the lattice Boltzmann method. Body-fitting, unstructured computational meshes are used to improve the numerical accuracy. The fluid-fluid and fluid-solid interfaces are directly resolved and an implicit approach to surface tension is used to alleviate restrictions due to capillary CFL condition. In FEM simulations, the Beltrami-Laplace operator is integrated by parts to avoid interface curvature computation during evaluation of the surface tension term. We derive and validate an upscaled approach to Stokes flow in propped and rough fractures. Our upscaled 2.5D fracture flow model features a Brinkman term and is capable of treating no-slip boundary conditions on the rims of proppant grains and fracture wall contact areas. The Stokes-Brinkman fracture flow model provides an improvement over the Reynolds model, both in terms of the effective fracture permeability and the local flow pattern. We present numerical and analytical models for the propped fracture

  18. A numerical model for dynamic wave rotor analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxson, D. E.

    1995-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed which can predict the dynamic (and steady state) performance of a wave rotor, given the geometry and time dependent boundary conditions. The one-dimensional, perfect gas, CFD based code tracks the gasdynamics in each of the wave rotor passages as they rotate past the various ducts. The model can operate both on and off-design, allowing dynamic behavior to be studied throughout the operating range of the wave rotor. The model accounts for several major loss mechanisms including finite passage opening time, fluid friction, heat transfer to and from the passage walls, and leakage to and from the passage ends. In addition, it can calculate the amount of work transferred to and from the fluid when the flow in the ducts is not aligned with the passages such as occurs in off-design operation. Since it is one-dimensional, the model runs reasonably fast on a typical workstation. This paper will describe the model and present the results of some transient calculations for a conceptual four port wave rotor designed as a topping cycle for a small gas turbine engine.

  19. Numerical approaches to model perturbation fire in turing pattern formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campagna, R.; Brancaccio, M.; Cuomo, S.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Siettos, K.; Giannino, F.

    2017-11-01

    Turing patterns were observed in chemical, physical and biological systems described by coupled reaction-diffusion equations. Several models have been formulated proposing the water as the causal mechanism of vegetation pattern formation, but this isn't an exhaustive hypothesis in some natural environments. An alternative explanation has been related to the plant-soil negative feedback. In Marasco et al. [1] the authors explored the hypothesis that both mechanisms contribute in the formation of regular and irregular vegetation patterns. The mathematical model consists in three partial differential equations (PDEs) that take into account for a dynamic balance between biomass, water and toxic compounds. A numerical approach is mandatory also to investigate on the predictions of this kind of models. In this paper we start from the mathematical model described in [1], set the model parameters such that the biomass reaches a stable spatial pattern (spots) and present preliminary studies about the occurrence of perturbing events, such as wildfire, that can affect the regularity of the biomass configuration.

  20. Mechanical Interaction in Pressurized Pipe Systems: Experiments and Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Simão

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic interaction between the unsteady flow occurrence and the resulting vibration of the pipe are analyzed based on experiments and numerical models. Waterhammer, structural dynamic and fluid–structure interaction (FSI are the main subjects dealt with in this study. Firstly, a 1D model is developed based on the method of characteristics (MOC using specific damping coefficients for initial components associated with rheological pipe material behavior, structural and fluid deformation, and type of anchored structural supports. Secondly a 3D coupled complex model based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD, using a Finite Element Method (FEM, is also applied to predict and distinguish the FSI events. Herein, a specific hydrodynamic model of viscosity to replicate the operation of a valve was also developed to minimize the number of mesh elements and the complexity of the system. The importance of integrated analysis of fluid–structure interaction, especially in non-rigidity anchored pipe systems, is equally emphasized. The developed models are validated through experimental tests.

  1. Dynamic updating of numerical model discrepancy using sequential sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Ernst, Oliver; Somersalo, Erkki

    2014-11-01

    This article addresses the problem of compensating for discretization errors in inverse problems based on partial differential equation models. Multidimensional inverse problems are by nature computationally intensive, and a key challenge in practical applications is to reduce the computing time. In particular, a reduction by coarse discretization of the forward model is commonly used. Coarse discretization, however, introduces a numerical model discrepancy, which may become the predominant part of the noise, particularly when the data is collected with high accuracy. In the Bayesian framework, the discretization error has been addressed by treating it as a random variable and using the prior density of the unknown to estimate off-line its probability density, which is then used to modify the likelihood. In this article, the problem is revisited in the context of an iterative scheme similar to Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF), in which the modeling error statistics is updated sequentially based on the current ensemble estimate of the unknown quantity. Hence, the algorithm learns about the modeling error while concomitantly updating the information about the unknown, leading to a reduction of the posterior variance.

  2. Numerical modeling of laser assisted tape winding process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaami, Amin; Baran, Ismet; Akkerman, Remko

    2017-10-01

    Laser assisted tape winding (LATW) has become more and more popular way of producing new thermoplastic products such as ultra-deep sea water riser, gas tanks, structural parts for aerospace applications. Predicting the temperature in LATW has been a source of great interest since the temperature at nip-point plays a key role for mechanical interface performance. Modeling the LATW process includes several challenges such as the interaction of optics and heat transfer. In the current study, numerical modeling of the optical behavior of laser radiation on circular surfaces is investigated based on a ray tracing and non-specular reflection model. The non-specular reflection is implemented considering the anisotropic reflective behavior of the fiber-reinforced thermoplastic tape using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The proposed model in the present paper includes a three-dimensional circular geometry, in which the effects of reflection from different ranges of the circular surface as well as effect of process parameters on temperature distribution are studied. The heat transfer model is constructed using a fully implicit method. The effect of process parameters on the nip-point temperature is examined. Furthermore, several laser distributions including Gaussian and linear are examined which has not been considered in literature up to now.

  3. Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J.C.; Geyer, W.R.; Lerczak, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Numerical simulations of the Hudson River estuary using a terrain-following, three-dimensional model (Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)) are compared with an extensive set of time series and spatially resolved measurements over a 43 day period with large variations in tidal forcing and river discharge. The model is particularly effective at reproducing the observed temporal variations in both the salinity and current structure, including tidal, spring neap, and river discharge-induced variability. Large observed variations in stratification between neap and spring tides are captured qualitatively and quantitatively by the model. The observed structure and variations of the longitudinal salinity gradient are also well reproduced. The most notable discrepancy between the model and the data is in the vertical salinity structure. While the surface-to-bottom salinity difference is well reproduced, the stratification in the model tends to extend all the way to the water surface, whereas the observations indicate a distinct pycnocline and a surface mixed layer. Because the southern boundary coindition is located near the mouth the estuary, the salinity within the domain is particularly sensitive to the specification of salinity at the boundary. A boundary condition for the horizontal salinity gradient, based on the local value of salinity, is developed to incorporate physical processes beyond the open boundary not resolved by the model. Model results are sensitive to the specification of the bottom roughness length and vertical stability functions, insofar as they influence the intensity of vertical mixing. The results only varied slightly between different turbulence closure methods of k-??, k-??, and k-kl. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Numerous Numerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henle, James M.

    This pamphlet consists of 17 brief chapters, each containing a discussion of a numeration system and a set of problems on the use of that system. The numeration systems used include Egyptian fractions, ordinary continued fractions and variants of that method, and systems using positive and negative bases. The book is informal and addressed to…

  5. [Molecular biological evaluation of prognostic parameters in GIST. Development of an integrative model of tumor progression].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, F

    2010-10-01

    Prognosis evaluation in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) is currently based on tumor diameter, mitotic counts and anatomic localisation. There are two risk classifications as well as the first ever TNM classification for GISTs, whereby the risk classification according to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) has the best correlation with clinical follow-up according to own experiences. "Very low/low risk" GISTs are almost benign, while the majority of "high risk" GISTs metastasize and benefit from adjuvant therapy. Careful evaluation of mitotic counts in 50 high-power fields is of particular relevance for correct risk classification. Apart from these classical prognostic factors, many molecular genetic parameters with correlation to follow-up have been evaluated and may help to improve prognosis evaluation of GISTs in the future. Since most of the molecular genetic parameters are associated or even determined by the clinico-pathological parameters, an integrated model for tumor progression of GISTs is helpful to interpret the different factors in correlation to one another. In particular for "intermediate risk" GISTs, additional parameters are needed for improved prognosis evaluation.

  6. Rivers on Titan - numerical modelling of sedimentary structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misiura, Katarzyna; Czechowski, Leszek

    2016-07-01

    On Titan surface we can expect a few different geomorphological forms, e.g. fluvial valley and river channels. In our research we use numerical model of the river to determine the limits of different fluvial parameters that play important roles in evolution of the rivers on Titan and on Earth. We have found that transport of sediments as suspended load is the main way of transport for Titan [1]. We also determined the range of the river's parameters for which braided river is developed rather than meandering river. Similar, parallel simulations for rivers deltas are presented in [2]. Introduction Titan is a very special body in the Solar System. It is the only moon that has dense atmosphere and flowing liquid on its surface. The Cassini-Huygens mission has found on Titan meandering rivers, and indicated processes of erosion, transport of solid material and its sedimentation. This work is aimed to investigate the similarity and differences between these processes on Titan and the Earth. Numerical model The dynamical analysis of the considered rivers is performed using the package CCHE modified for the specific conditions on Titan. The package is based on the Navier-Stokes equations for depth-integrated two dimensional, turbulent flow and three dimensional convection-diffusion equation of sediment transport. For more information about equations see [1]. Parameters of the model We considered our model for a few different parameters of liquid and material transported by a river. For Titan we consider liquid corresponding to a Titan's rain (75% methane, 25% nitrogen), for Earth, of course, the water. Material transported in rivers on Titan is water ice, for Earth - quartz. Other parameters of our model are: inflow discharge, outflow level, grain size of sediments etc. For every calculation performed for Titan's river similar calculations are performed for terrestrial ones. Results and Conclusions The results of our simulation show the differences in behaviour of the

  7. Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc

    2016-04-01

    Coastal zones are living and constantly changing environments where both the natural events and the human-interaction results come into picture regarding to the shoreline behavior. Both the nature of the coastal zone and the human activities shape together the resultants of the interaction with oceans and coasts. Natural extreme events may result in the need of human interference, such as building coastal structures in order to prevent from disasters or any man-made structure throughout a coastline may affect the hydrodynamics and morphology in the nearshore. In order to understand and cope with this cycle of cause and effect relationship, the numerical models developed. XBeach is an open-source, 2DH, depth average numerical model including the hydrodynamic processes of short wave transformation (refraction, shoaling and breaking), long wave (infragravity wave) transformation (generation, propagation and dissipation), wave-induced setup and unsteady currents, as well as overwash and inundation and morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching (Roelvink et al., 2010). Together with XBeach numerical model, it is possible to both verify and visualize the resultant external effects to the initial shorelines in coastal zones. Recently, Baykal et al. (2015) modelled the long term morphology changes with XBeach near Kızılırmak river mouth consisting of one I-shaped and one Y-shaped groins. In order to investigate the nature of the shoreline and near shore hydrodynamic conditions and morphology, the five laboratory experiments are conducted in the Largescale Sediment Transport Facility at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center in order to be used to improve longshore sand transport relationships under the combined influence of waves and currents and the enhancement of predictive numerical models of beach morphology evolution. The first series of the experiments were aimed at

  8. Numerical modeling of tunneling induced ground deformation and its control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V B Maji

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Tunnelling through cities underlain by soft soil, commonly associated with soil movement around the tunnels and subsequent surface settlement. The predication of ground movement during the tunnelling and optimum support pressure could be based on analytical, empirical or the numerical methods. The commonly used Earth pressure balance (EPB tunneling machines, uses the excavated soil in a pressurised head chamber to apply a support pressure to the tunnel face during excavation. This face pressure is a critical responsibility in EPB tunnelling because as the varying pressure can lead to collapse of the face. The objective of the present study is to evalute the critical supporting face pressure and grout pressure by observing the vertical deformation and horizontal displacement of soil body during tunneling. The face pressure and grout pressures were varied to see how they might influence the magnitude of surface settlements/heave. A numerical model using PLAXIS-3D tunnel has been developed to analyse the soil movement around the tunnel that includes various geotechnical conditions. The ground surrounding the tunnel found to be very sensitive to the face pressure and grout pressure in terms of surface settlement and collapse of the soil body.

  9. Wall functions for numerical modeling of laminar MHD flows

    CERN Document Server

    Widlund, O

    2003-01-01

    general wall function treatment is presented for the numerical modeling of laminar magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows. The wall function expressions are derived analytically from the steady-state momentum and electric potential equations, making use only of local variables of the numerical solution. No assumptions are made regarding the orientation of the magnetic field relative to the wall, nor of the magnitude of the Hartmann number, or the wall conductivity. The wall functions are used for defining implicit boundary conditions for velocity and electric potential, and for computing mass flow and electrical currents in near wall-cells. The wall function treatment was validated in a finite volume formulation, and compared with an analytic solution for a fully developed channel flow in a transverse magnetic field. For the case with insulating walls, a uniform 20 x 20 grid, and Hartmann numbers Ha = [10,30,100], the accuracy of pressure drop and wall shear stress predictions was [1.1%,1.6%,0.5%], respectively. Com...

  10. A comparison of vertical coordinate systems for numerical modeling of the general circulation of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heikes, Ross Parker

    The Colorado State University general circulation model has been dramatically changed in the last few years. The horizontal grid has been changed from a latitude/longitude grid with an Arakawa C-grid staggering of mass, zonal and meridional wind to a geodesic grid in which mass, vorticity and divergence are predicted at cell centers. Throughout this change the vertical structure has remained unchanged. Now, we are poised to revamp the vertical structure of the model. We have studied several possible alternative vertical coordinate systems in order to pick the one best suited for long-term climate prediction. After a brief historical review of various vertical coordinates used in numerical modeling, we will focus on three models---one based on the co-called sigma-coordinate, on based on a pure isentropic coordinate and one based a hybrid sigma-θ vertical coordinate. We will show how the continuous equations are transformed to finite-difference analogs, and how the transformation preserves many of the conservation properties of the continuous equations. We will show how different vertical discretization of the prognostic variables---Lorenz or Chamey-Phillips vertical staggering---can influence the quality of the numerical simulation. Many fundamental questions about the isentropic- and hybrid-coordinate need to be answered. Since the isentropic-coordinate surfaces behave as Lagrangian surfaces, the ideas of grid resolution from the Eulerian framework are not applicable. Also, in the isentropic- and hybrid-coordinates, there is a much greater variation in layer thickness. Excessive vertical resolution in the extra-tropics where coordinate surfaces are close, may become inadequately coarse in the tropics as the coordinate surfaces spread apart. We will show how the quality of the Held and Suarez test case changes as a function of resolution. We have performed a simulation of stratospheric sudden warming with the isentropic-coordinate model. We will compare our results

  11. Numerical studies of the Zaitsev (Robin Hood ) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Perry; Cwilich, Gabriel; Buldyrev, Sergey; Zypman, Fredy

    2008-03-01

    The Zaitsev[1] model of depinning of interfaces has been widely used to discuss motion of dislocations, low temperature flux creep, and more recently dry friction. The properties of this model have been discussed theoretically in one dimension, and numerically verified with precision in the isotropic case. We are studying here the effect of anisotropy in the distribution of the ``mass'' among the neighbors in the updating of the sites, which is known to modify the critical exponents of the model in one dimension. We have considered the validity of the scaling laws in higher dimensions, which might be relevant for the case of friction [2], by computing several of the exponents of the model for the avalanche size distribution, average avalanche size, avalanche fractal dimension and distribution of jumps between extremal sites of activity. The much richer space of parameters of anisotropy in two dimensions has been explored. [1] S.I. Zaitsev , Physica A189, 411 (1992). [2] S. Buldyrev, J. Ferrante and F. Zypman Phys. Rev E64, 066110, (2006)

  12. A Numerical Model for the Microcirculation in Skeletal Muscle Fascia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobitz, Frank G.; Schmid-Schönbein, Geert W.

    2002-11-01

    A numerical model for blood flow in a microvascular network has been developed. The model uses the complete network topology of rat spinotrapezius muscle fascia that was reconstructed from microscopic images. The fascia's network is composed of a feeding arterial network, a collecting venous network, and bundles of capillaries. The flow in the network's vessels is characterized by low Reynolds and Womersley numbers. The model consideres that the microvessels are distensible by pressure and that the arterioles are actively contractile. The blood has non-Newtonian apparent viscosity and blood cells are distributed at bifurcations according to the flow rates into the side branches. These properties have previously been determined experimentally. The method of indefinite admittances is used to compute the flow in the network. The apparent viscosity is computed from local values of hematocrit, shear, and vessel diameter. The model provides detailed information about the flow in all of the network's vessels. Statistical properties of the network, such as the overall flowrate through the network or distributions of pressure, shear stress, and hematocrit in the network are determined. Results for the flow in arterial, venous, and capillary vessels are compared.

  13. A network landscape model: stability analysis and numerical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonacini, E.; Groppi, M.; Monaco, R.; Soares, A. J.; Soresina, C.

    2017-07-01

    A Network Landscape Model (NLM) for the evaluation of the ecological trend of an environmental system is here presented and investigated. The model consists in a network of dynamical systems, where each node represents a single Landscape Unit (LU), endowed by a system of ODEs for two variables relevant to the production of bio-energy and to the percentage of green areas, respectively. The main goal of the paper consists in testing the relevance of connectivity between the LUs. For this purpose we consider first the Single LU Model (SLM) and investigate its equilibria and their stability, in terms of two bifurcation parameters. Then the network dynamics is theoretically investigated by means of a bifurcation analysis of a proper simplified differential system, that allows to understand how the coupling between different LUs modifies the asymptotic scenarios for the single LU model. Numerical simulations of NLM are performed, with reference to an environmental system in Northern Italy, and results are discussed in connection with SLM.

  14. Numerical Modeling of Electrical Contact Conductance of Rough Bodies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Murashov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 20th century to the present time, efforts have been made to develop a model of the electrical contact conductance. The development of micro- and nanotechnologies make contact conductance problem more essential. To conduct borrowing from a welldeveloped thermal contact conductance models on the basis of thermal and electrical conductivity analogy is often not possible due to a number of fundamental differences. While some 3Dmodels of rough bodies deformation have been developed in one way or another, a 3D-model of the electrical conductance through rough bodies contact is still not. A spatial model of electrical contact of rough bodies is proposed, allows one to calculate the electrical contact conductance as a function of the contact pressure. Representative elements of the bodies are parallelepipeds with deterministic roughness on the contacting surfaces. First the non-linear elastic-plastic deformation of rough surface under external pressure is solved using the finite element software ANSYS. Then the solution of electrostatic problem goes on the same finite element mesh. Aluminum AD1 is used as the material of the contacting bodies with properties that account for cold work hardening of the surface. The numerical model is built within the continuum mechanics and nanoscale effects are not taken into account. The electrical contact conductance was calculated on the basis of the concept of electrical resistance of the model as the sum of the electrical resistances of the contacting bodies and the contact itself. It was assumed that there is no air in the gap between the bodies. The dependence of the electrical contact conductance on the contact pressure is calculated as well as voltage and current density distributions in the contact bodies. It is determined that the multi-asperity contact mode, adequate to real roughness, is achieved at pressures higher than 3MPa, while results within the single contact spot are

  15. Numerical model of electron cyclotron resonance ion source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mironov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features of the electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS operation are accurately reproduced with a numerical code. The code uses the particle-in-cell technique to model the dynamics of ions in ECRIS plasma. It is shown that a gas dynamical ion confinement mechanism is sufficient to provide the ion production rates in ECRIS close to the experimentally observed values. Extracted ion currents are calculated and compared to the experiment for a few sources. Changes in the simulated extracted ion currents are obtained with varying the gas flow into the source chamber and the microwave power. Empirical scaling laws for ECRIS design are studied and the underlying physical effects are discussed.

  16. Experimental and numerical investigation of a simplified exhaust model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balázs Vehovszky

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A simplified experimental equipment was built to investigate heat radiation and free convection around hot exhaust pipe. Temperatures were measured on the surface of the pipe as like as on heat insulating and -reflecting aluminum shield. Special care was taken to the temperature measuring method: result proved that inappropriate fixing of measuring thermocouples lead to an error of up to 30 % in the temperature-increase values. A detailed 1D numerical model was set up and parametrized so as to the calculation results can be fitted to measured temperature values. In this way thermal properties of the surfaces – as emissivities, absorption coefficients and convective heat transfer coefficients – were determined for temperature sweeps and stationary state cases. The used methods are to be further improved for real automotive parts and higher temperatures.

  17. Numerical model study of radio frequency vessel sealing thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, John

    2015-03-01

    Several clinically successful clinical radio frequency vessel-sealing devices are currently available. The dominant thermodynamic principles at work involve tissue water vaporization processes. It is necessary to thermally denature vessel collagen, elastin and their adherent proteins to achieve a successful fusion. Collagens denature at middle temperatures, between about 60 and 90 C depending on heating time and rate. Elastin, and its adherent proteins, are more thermally robust, and require temperatures in excess of the boiling point of water at atmospheric pressure to thermally fuse. Rapid boiling at low apposition pressures leads to steam vacuole formation, brittle tissue remnants and frequently to substantial disruption in the vessel wall, particularly in high elastin-content arteries. High apposition pressures substantially increase the equilibrium boiling point of tissue water and are necessary to ensure a high probability of a successful seal. The FDM numerical models illustrate the beneficial effects of high apposition pressures.

  18. Numerical Investigation of a Model Scramjet Combustor Using DDES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Junsu; Sung, Hong-Gye

    2017-04-01

    Non-reactive flows moving through a model scramjet were investigated using a delayed detached eddy simulation (DDES), which is a hybrid scheme combining Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes scheme and a large eddy simulation. The three dimensional Navier-Stokes equations were solved numerically on a structural grid using finite volume methods. An in-house was developed. This code used a monotonic upstream-centered scheme for conservation laws (MUSCL) with an advection upstream splitting method by pressure weight function (AUSMPW+) for space. In addition, a 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme was used with preconditioning for time integration. The geometries and boundary conditions of a scramjet combustor operated by DLR, a German aerospace center, were considered. The profiles of the lower wall pressure and axial velocity obtained from a time-averaged solution were compared with experimental results. Also, the mixing efficiency and total pressure recovery factor were provided in order to inspect the performance of the combustor.

  19. Numerical modelling of flow pattern for high swirling flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Teresa; Perez, J. R.; Szasz, R.; Rodriguez, M. A.; Castro, F.

    2015-05-01

    This work focuses on the interaction of two coaxial swirling jets. High swirl burners are suitable for lean flames and produce low emissions. Computational Fluid Dynamics has been used to study the isothermal behaviour of two confined jets whose setup and operating conditions are those of the benchmark of Roback and Johnson. Numerical model is a Total Variation Diminishing and PISO is used to pressure velocity coupling. Transient analysis let identify the non-axisymmetric region of reverse flow. The center of instantaneous azimuthal velocities is not located in the axis of the chamber. The temporal sampling evidences this center spins around the axis of the device forming the precessing vortex core (PVC) whose Strouhal numbers are more than two for Swirl numbers of one. Influence of swirl number evidences strong swirl numbers are precursor of large vortex breakdown. Influence of conical diffusers evidence the reduction of secondary flows associated to boundary layer separation.

  20. Numerical modelling of flow pattern for high swirling flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parra Teresa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work focuses on the interaction of two coaxial swirling jets. High swirl burners are suitable for lean flames and produce low emissions. Computational Fluid Dynamics has been used to study the isothermal behaviour of two confined jets whose setup and operating conditions are those of the benchmark of Roback and Johnson. Numerical model is a Total Variation Diminishing and PISO is used to pressure velocity coupling. Transient analysis let identify the non-axisymmetric region of reverse flow. The center of instantaneous azimuthal velocities is not located in the axis of the chamber. The temporal sampling evidences this center spins around the axis of the device forming the precessing vortex core (PVC whose Strouhal numbers are more than two for Swirl numbers of one. Influence of swirl number evidences strong swirl numbers are precursor of large vortex breakdown. Influence of conical diffusers evidence the reduction of secondary flows associated to boundary layer separation.

  1. Junction Flow Analyses by Two-Dimensional Numerical Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Tae Hoon [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea); Jung, Eui Teak [Korea Water Resources Corporation, Taejeon (Korea); Park, Jong Suk [Kumho Engineering Co., Anyang(Korea)

    1998-10-31

    The flow configurations at open channel junctions are analyzed by 2-D depth averaged mathematical model. The governing factors of the flow at the junction are found to be discharge ratio between tributary flow and the post confluence combined flow, and confluence angle. Analyzed by these two factors are flow patterns and flow depth variation at the confluence, discharge ratio above which the flow upstream from the junction is affected by the tributary flow and the geometries of a recirculation region. Further, the flow contraction in the downstream region and the deflection of the tributary flow in the main channel were investigated. The numerical results are compared with the existing experimental data fairly well. (author). 11 refs., 12 figs.

  2. Injury representation against ballistic threats using three novel numerical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeze, Johno; Fryer, R; Pope, D; Clasper, J

    2017-06-01

    Injury modelling of ballistic threats is a valuable tool for informing policy on personal protective equipment and other injury mitigation methods. Currently, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Centre for Protection of National Infrastructure (CPNI) are focusing on the development of three interlinking numerical models, each of a different fidelity, to answer specific questions on current threats. High-fidelity models simulate the physical events most realistically, and will be used in the future to test the medical effectiveness of personal armour systems. They are however generally computationally intensive, slow running and much of the experimental data to base their algorithms on do not yet exist. Medium fidelity models, such as the personnel vulnerability simulation (PVS), generally use algorithms based on physical or engineering estimations of interaction. This enables a reasonable representation of reality and greatly speeds up runtime allowing full assessments of the entire body area to be undertaken. Low-fidelity models such as the human injury predictor (HIP) tool generally use simplistic algorithms to make injury predictions. Individual scenarios can be run very quickly and hence enable statistical casualty assessments of large groups, where significant uncertainty concerning the threat and affected population exist. HIP is used to simulate the blast and penetrative fragmentation effects of a terrorist detonation of an improvised explosive device within crowds of people in metropolitan environments. This paper describes the collaboration between MoD and CPNI using an example of all three fidelities of injury model and to highlight future areas of research that are required. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  3. Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

  4. The Rheasilvia Crater on Rotating Vesta: Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, B.; Kamyshenkov, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Dawn mission to the asteroid Vesta delivers valuable new data about this differentiated planetary body (see Russel ea., Jaumann ea., Schenk ea., Science, 11 May 2012). The youngest of giant impact craters on Vesta, Rheasilvia, is an important "window" into Vesta structure and history. Numerical SPH modeling of the Rheasilvia impact formation (Jutzi and Asphaug, 2010-12, Jutzi ea., 2012) revealed the main details of the event. We use alternatively 2D SALE-based code to study some details better resolved in the Eulerian hydrocodes (Ivanov ea., 2011-12). We continue the modeling and now the target rotation (centripetal accelerations) is added to the code (in 2D we can model only vertical impact at the pole). The problem of the initial rotating target shape is solving numerically: the liquid 3-layer sphere ("basalt" crust, "dunite" mantle, iron core) is gradually spin up and starts to oscillate around an equilibrium elliptic shape. At the moment of maximum average velocity all velocities are zeroed and the target approaches to its equilibrium more slowly. A few iterations allow us to reach the state where the model run, restarted with strength switched on, demonstrates only near boundaries material damage. After ~3000 s of this "dry" run the model restarts again with zeroed damage and velocities and the impacting projectile. For the 5 hours rotation period, 40 km crust and 100 km core the (a-c)/a flattening is about 0.165 v.s 0.196 for 285x229 km ellipsoid used for mapping (Jaumann ea., 2012). The core flattening is about 0.15. After the impact the crater is formed and flattening increases to ~0.168 for crust and mantle and to 0.156 for the core (crust and mantle ellipses are fitted for the uncratered hemisphere). Hence, the Rheasilvia-scale impact may slightly change the effective asteroid shape. Older large impacts visible on Vesta (Schenk ea., 2012) should be modeled in future to trace the shape evolution. The Rheasilvia-scale impact results in the mantle uplift

  5. Numerical and physical modelling of oil spreading in broken ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gjoesteen, Janne K. Oekland

    2002-07-01

    The present work focuses on oil spreading in broken ice and the content of this thesis falls into three categories: 1) The physical and numerical modelling of oil spreading in ice. 2) Ice models and parameters describing the ice cover. 3) Experiments on oil spreading in broken ice. A background study was carried out to investigate existing models for simulating oil in broken ice. Most of them describe motion of oil simply as a function of the ice motion and do not take advantage of the possibilities that recent ice models provide. We decided to choose another direction, starting from scratch with equations describing the flow of oil on top of a water surface. The equations were implemented numerically, including proper boundary conditions to account for the presence of physical restrictions in the form of ice floes in the simulation area. The implementation was designed to be able to apply data on ice motion calculated by an existing dynamic ice model. A first validation of the model was carried out using existing experimental data. As those data were obtained in a different setting, the recorded parameters and set-up of the experiment were not ideal for our purpose. However, we were able to conclude that our model behaviour was reasonable. We have carried out statistical analysis on meteorological data of wind speeds, temperatures, flow sizes and ice thickness to obtain probability distributions describing the parameters. Those data has been collected in the Pechora Sea. Wind and temperature had been recorded for a period of 30-40 years. For this region we also had available Argos satellite data from four buoys drifting in the ice in April-June 1998. The Argos data were carefully analysed to suggest probability distributions and return periods for certain speeds. (Indoor basin tests were carried out to obtain data on spreading of oil in broken ice. A set of 20 tests was conducted, each with different type of oil, ice concentration, slush concentration or ice

  6. Numerical modeling of rapidly varying flows using HEC-RAS and WSPG models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Prasada; Hromadka, Theodore V

    2016-01-01

    The performance of two popular hydraulic models (HEC-RAS and WSPG) for modeling hydraulic jump in an open channel is investigated. The numerical solutions are compared with a new experimental data set obtained for varying channel bottom slopes and flow rates. Both the models satisfactorily predict the flow depths and location of the jump. The end results indicate that the numerical models output is sensitive to the value of chosen roughness coefficient. For this application, WSPG model is easier to implement with few input variables.

  7. A Comprehensive Numerical Model for Simulating Fluid Transport in Nanopores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan; Yu, Wei; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; di, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Since a large amount of nanopores exist in tight oil reservoirs, fluid transport in nanopores is complex due to large capillary pressure. Recent studies only focus on the effect of nanopore confinement on single-well performance with simple planar fractures in tight oil reservoirs. Its impacts on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries have not been reported. In this study, a numerical model was developed to investigate the effect of confined phase behavior on cumulative oil and gas production of four horizontal wells with different fracture geometries. Its pore sizes were divided into five regions based on nanopore size distribution. Then, fluid properties were evaluated under different levels of capillary pressure using Peng-Robinson equation of state. Afterwards, an efficient approach of Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM) was applied to explicitly model hydraulic and natural fractures in the reservoirs. Finally, three fracture geometries, i.e. non-planar hydraulic fractures, non-planar hydraulic fractures with one set natural fractures, and non-planar hydraulic fractures with two sets natural fractures, are evaluated. The multi-well performance with confined phase behavior is analyzed with permeabilities of 0.01 md and 0.1 md. This work improves the analysis of capillarity effect on multi-well performance with complex fracture geometries in tight oil reservoirs.

  8. Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

    2017-11-01

    The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

  9. Biotic origin for Mima mounds supported by numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabet, Emmanuel J.; Perron, J. Taylor; Johnson, Donald L.

    2014-02-01

    Mima mounds are ~ 1-m-high hillocks found on every continent except Antarctica. Despite often numbering in the millions within a single field, their origin has been a mystery, with proposed explanations ranging from glacial processes to seismic shaking. One hypothesis proposes that mounds in North America are built by burrowing mammals to provide refuge from seasonally saturated soils. We test this hypothesis with a numerical model, parameterized with measurements of soil transport by gophers from a California mound field, that couples animal behavior with geomorphic processes. The model successfully simulates the development of the mounds as well as key details such as the creation of vernal pools, small intermound basins that provide habitat for endemic species. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the spatial structure of the modeled mound fields is similar to actual mound fields and provides an example of self-organized topographic features. We conclude that, scaled by body mass, Mima mounds are the largest structures built by nonhuman mammals and may provide a rare example of an evolutionary coupling between landforms and the organisms that create them.

  10. Biotic Origin for Mima Mounds Supported by Numerical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabet, E. J.; Perron, J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Mima mounds are ~1-m-high hillocks found on every continent except Antarctica. Despite often numbering in the millions within a single field, their origin has been a mystery, with proposed explanations ranging from glacial processes to seismic shaking. One hypothesis proposes that mounds in North America are built by burrowing mammals to provide refuge from seasonally saturated soils. We test this hypothesis with a numerical model, parameterized with measurements of soil transport by gophers from a California mound field, that couples animal behavior with geomorphic processes. The model successfully simulates the development of the mounds, as well as key details such as the creation of vernal pools, small intermound basins that provide habitat for endemic species. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the spatial structure of the modeled mound fields is similar to actual mound fields and provides an example of self-organized topographic features. We conclude that, scaled by body mass, Mima mounds are the largest structures built by non-human mammals, and may provide a rare example of an evolutionary coupling between landforms and the organisms that create them.

  11. Numerical modelling of cuttings transport with foam in inclined wells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osunde, O.; Kuru, E. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    A one dimensional transient state mechanistic model of cuttings transport with foam in inclined wells was developed and solved numerically to predict the optimum foam flow rate (liquid and gas rate) and rheological properties that would maximize cuttings transport efficiency in inclined well. The model was then verified using experimental results obtained by Capo110. A literature review focusing on the mechanism of cuttings transport in wells, foam drilling with a focus on the foam rheology, foam flow and cutting transport with foam was presented. The new model consisted of a detailed sensitivity analysis of the effect of gas and liquid flowing rates, drilling rate, foam rheological properties, borehole geometry, wellbore inclination and the rate of gas and liquid influx from the reservoir on the cutting transport efficiency in inclined wells. One of the conclusions from the study was that the gas injection rate has a significant effect on the cuttings transport process, with a more pronounced effect at lower gas injection rates. The liquid injection rate has little effect on the cuttings transport process with negligible effect at very low or very high gas injection rate. 110 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs.

  12. Factors affecting physicians’ intentions to communicate personalized prognostic information to cancer patients at the end of life: An experimental vignette study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Paul K.J.; Dieckmann, Nathan F.; Holt, Christina; Gutheil, Caitlin; Peters, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To explore the effects of personalized numeric prognostic information on physicians’ intentions to communicate prognosis to cancer patients at the end of life, and to identify factors that moderate these effects. Methods A factorial experiment was conducted in which 93 Family Medicine physicians were presented with a hypothetical case vignette depicting an end-stage gastric cancer patient seeking prognostic information. Physicians’ intentions to communicate prognosis were assessed before and after provision of personalized prognostic information, while emotional distress of the patient and ambiguity (manifest by imprecision) of the prognostic estimate were varied between subjects. General linear models were used to test the effects of personalized prognostic information, patient distress, and ambiguity on prognostic communication intentions, and explored potential moderating effects of: 1) perceived patient distress, 2) perceived credibility of prognostic models, 3) physician numeracy (objective and subjective), and 4) physician aversion to risk and ambiguity. Results Provision of personalized prognostic information increased prognostic communication intentions (p<.001, η2=.38), although experimentally-manipulated patient distress and prognostic ambiguity had no effects. Greater change in communication intentions was positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (p=.007, η2=.10), higher objective numeracy (p=.01, η2=.09), female sex (p=.01, η2=.08), and lower perceived patient distress (p=.02, η2=.07). Intentions to communicate available personalized prognostic information were positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (p=.02, η2=.09), higher subjective numeracy (p=.02, η2=.08), and lower ambiguity aversion (p=.06, η2=.04). Conclusions Provision of personalized prognostic information increases physicians’ prognostic communication intentions to a hypothetical end-stage cancer

  13. Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

    OpenAIRE

    Guinney, Justin; Tao WANG; Laajala, Teemu D; Winner, Kimberly Kanigel; Bare, J. Christopher; Neto, Elias Chaibub; Khan, Suleiman A.; Peddinti, Gopal; Airola, Antti; Pahikkala, Tapio; Mirtti, Tuomas; Yu, Thomas; Bot, Brian M.; Shen, Liji; Abdallah, Kald

    2017-01-01

    Background: Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for ...

  14. Numerical modelling of the bonding process for wind turbine blades: model validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uzal, Anil; Spangenberg, Jon; W. Nielsen, Michael

    behaviour of theadhesive is approximated with the Bingham material model. The numerical model is in good agreementwith the experimental results. In the future, the model will be used to optimize the bonding process ofwind turbine blades, save weight and reduce the levelized cost of energy....

  15. Stratified flows with variable density: mathematical modelling and numerical challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Javier; Navas-Montilla, Adrian

    2017-04-01

    Stratified flows appear in a wide variety of fundamental problems in hydrological and geophysical sciences. They may involve from hyperconcentrated floods carrying sediment causing collapse, landslides and debris flows, to suspended material in turbidity currents where turbulence is a key process. Also, in stratified flows variable horizontal density is present. Depending on the case, density varies according to the volumetric concentration of different components or species that can represent transported or suspended materials or soluble substances. Multilayer approaches based on the shallow water equations provide suitable models but are not free from difficulties when moving to the numerical resolution of the governing equations. Considering the variety of temporal and spatial scales, transfer of mass and energy among layers may strongly differ from one case to another. As a consequence, in order to provide accurate solutions, very high order methods of proved quality are demanded. Under these complex scenarios it is necessary to observe that the numerical solution provides the expected order of accuracy but also converges to the physically based solution, which is not an easy task. To this purpose, this work will focus in the use of Energy balanced augmented solvers, in particular, the Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. References: J. Murillo , P. García-Navarro, Wave Riemann description of friction terms in unsteady shallow flows: Application to water and mud/debris floods. J. Comput. Phys. 231 (2012) 1963-2001. J. Murillo B. Latorre, P. García-Navarro. A Riemann solver for unsteady computation of 2D shallow flows with variable density. J. Comput. Phys.231 (2012) 4775-4807. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Energy balanced numerical schemes with very high order. The Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. Application to the shallow water equations, J. Comput. Phys. 290 (2015) 188-218. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Asymptotically and exactly energy balanced augmented flux

  16. Prognostic value of a systemic inflammatory response index in metastatic renal cell carcinoma and construction of a predictive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongzhao; Chen, Luyao; Li, Xintao; Zhang, Yu; Xie, Yongpeng; Zhang, Xu

    2017-01-01

    Inflammation act as a crucial role in carcinogenesis and tumor progression. In this study, we aim to investigate the prognostic significance of systemic inflammatory biomarkers in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and develop a survival predictive model. One hundred and sixty-one mRCC patients who had undergone cytoreductive nephrectomy were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2013. We created a systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) basing on pretreatment hemoglobin and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), and evaluated its associations with overall survival (OS) and clinicopathological features. Pretreatment hemoglobin and LMR both remained as independent factors adjusted for other markers of systemic inflammation responses and conventional clinicopathological parameters. A high SIRI seems to be an independent prognosis predictor of worse OS and was significantly correlated with aggressive tumor behaviors. Inclusion of the SIRI into a prognostic model including Fuhrman grade, histology, tumor necrosis and targeted therapy established a nomogram, which accurately predicted 1-year survival for mRCC patients. The SIRI seems to be a prognostic biomarker in mRCC patients. The proposed nomogram can be applied to predict OS of patients with mRCC after nephrectomy. PMID:28881716

  17. Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Paladin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model's open boundaries.The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008.The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model.Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles, the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil,sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008,when the ship `Und Adriyatik' caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia en route from Istanbul (Turkey to Trieste (Italy. At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the firedepartment, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours,preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s-1 with a minimum duration of 24 h

  18. Numerical modeling of mineral dissolution - precipitation kinetics integrating interfacial processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azaroual, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    The mechanisms of mineral dissolution/precipitation are complex and interdependent. Within a same rock, the geochemical modelling may have to manage kinetic reactions with high ratios between the most reactive minerals (i.e., carbonates, sulfate salts, etc.) and less reactive minerals (i.e., silica, alumino-silicates, etc.). These ratios (higher than 10+6) induce numerical instabilities for calculating mass and energy transfers between minerals and aqueous phases at the appropriate scales of time and space. The current scientific debate includes: i) changes (or not) of the mineral reactive surface with the progress of the dissolution/precipitation reactions; ii) energy jumps (discontinuity) in the thermodynamic affinity function of some dissolution/precipitation reactions and iii) integration of processes at the "mineral - aqueous solution" interfaces for alumino-silicates, silica and carbonates. In recent works dealing with the specific case of amorphous silica, measurements were performed on nano-metric cross-sections indicating the presence of surface layer between the bulk solution and the mineral. This thin layer is composed by amorphous silica and hydrated silica "permeable" to the transfer of water and ionic chemical constituents. The boundary/interface between the initial mineral and the silica layer is characterized by a high concentration jump of chemical products at the nanoscale and some specific interfacial dissolution/precipitation processes.In this study, the results of numerical simulations dealing with different mechanisms of silicate and carbonate dissolution/precipitation reactions and integrating interfacial processes will be discussed. The application of this approach to silica precipitation is based on laboratory experiments and it highlights the significant role of the "titration" surface induced by surface complexation reactions in the determination of the kinetics of precipitation.

  19. Numerical modeling transport phenomena in proton exchange membrane fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, DongMyung

    To study the coupled phenomena occurring in proton exchange membrane fuel cells, a two-phase, one-dimensional, non-isothermal model is developed in the chapter 1. The model includes water phase change, proton transport in the membrane and electro-osmotic effect. The thinnest, but most complex layer in the membrane electrode assembly, catalyst layer, is considered an interfacial boundary between the gas diffusion layer and the membrane. Mass and heat transfer and electro-chemical reaction through the catalyst layer are formulated into equations, which are applied to boundary conditions for the gas diffusion layer and the membrane. Detail accounts of the boundary equations and the numerical solving procedure used in this work are given. The polarization curve is calculated at different oxygen pressures and compared with the experimental results. When the operating condition is changed along the polarization curve, the change of physicochemical variables in the membrane electrode assembly is studied. In particular, the over-potential diagram presents the usage of the electrochemical energy at each layer of the membrane electrode assembly. Humidity in supplying gases is one of the most important factors to consider for improving the performance of PEMFE. Both high and low humidity conditions can result in a deteriorating cell performance. The effect of humidity on the cell performance is studied in the chapter 2. First, a numerical model based on computational fluid dynamics is developed. Second, the cell performances are simulated, when the relative humidity is changed from 0% to 100% in the anode and the cathode channel. The simulation results show how humidity in the reactant gases affects the water content distribution in the membrane, the over-potential at the catalyst layers and eventually the cell performance. In particular, the rapid enhancement in the cell performance caused by self-hydrating membrane is captured by the simulation. Fully humidifying either H2

  20. Magmatism in Lithosphere Delamination process inferred from numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göǧüş, Oǧuz H.; Ueda, Kosuke; Gerya, Taras

    2017-04-01

    The peel away of the oceanic/continental slab from the overlying orogenic crust has been suggested as a ubiquitous process in the Alpine-Mediterranean orogenic region (e.g. Carpathians, Apennines, Betics and Anatolia). The process is defined as lithospheric delamination where a slab removal/peel back may allow for the gradual uprising of sub-lithospheric mantle, resulting in high heat flow, transient surface uplift/subsidence and varying types of magma production. Geodynamical modeling studies have adressed the surface response to the delamination in the context of regional tectonic processes and explored wide range of controlling parameters in pre-syn and post collisional stages. However, the amount and styles of melt production in the mantle (e.g. decompression melting, wet melting in the wedge) and the resulting magmatism due to the lithosphere delamination remains uncertain. In this work, by using thermomechanical numerical experiments, designed in the configuration of subduction to collision, we investigated how melting in the mantle develops in the course of delamination. Furthermore, model results are used to decipher the distribution of volumetric melt production, melt extraction and the source of melt and the style of magmatism (e.g. igneous vs. volcanic). The model results suggest that a broad region of decompression melting occurs under the crust, mixing with the melting of the hydrated mantle derived by the delaminating/subducting slab. Depending on the age of the ocean slab, plate convergence velocity and the mantle temperature, the melt production and crust magmatism may concentrate under the mantle wedge or in the far side of the delamination front (where the subduction begins). The slab break-off usually occurs in the terminal stages of the delamination process and it may effectively control the location of the magmatism in the crust. The model results are reconciled with the temporal and spatial distribution of orogenic vs. anorogenic magmatism in

  1. Numerical Simulations of a Multiscale Model of Stratified Langmuir Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malecha, Ziemowit; Chini, Gregory; Julien, Keith

    2012-11-01

    Langmuir circulation (LC), a prominent form of wind and surface-wave driven shear turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer (BL), is commonly modeled using the Craik-Leibovich (CL) equations, a phase-averaged variant of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Although surface-wave filtering renders the CL equations more amenable to simulation than are the instantaneous NS equations, simulations in wide domains, hundreds of times the BL depth, currently earn the ``grand challenge'' designation. To facilitate simulations of LC in such spatially-extended domains, we have derived multiscale CL equations by exploiting the scale separation between submesoscale and BL flows in the upper ocean. The numerical algorithm for simulating this multiscale model resembles super-parameterization schemes used in meteorology, but retains a firm mathematical basis. We have validated our algorithm and here use it to perform multiscale simulations of the interaction between LC and upper ocean density stratification. ZMM, GPC, KJ gratefully acknowledge funding from NSF CMG Award 0934827.

  2. A numerical model of localized convection cells of Euglena suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iima, Makoto; Shoji, Erika; Yamaguchi, Takayuki

    2014-11-01

    Suspension of Euglena gracilis shows localized convection cells when it is illuminated form below with strong light intensity. Experiments in an annular container shows that there are two elementary localized structures. One consists of a pair of convection cells and a single region where number density of Euglena is high. The other consists a localized traveling wave. Based on the measurements of the flux of number density, we propose a model of bioconvection incorporating lateral phototaxis effect proportional to the light intensity gradient. Using pseudo spectral method, we performed numerical simulation of this model. We succeed in reproducing one of the localized structures, a convection pair with single region of high number density. Also, when the aspect ratio is large, there are a parameter region where the localized structure and conductive state are both stable, which is suggested by experiments. Spatial distribution of the number density implies that the accumulation of microorganism due to the convective flow causes such bistability. CREST(PJ74100011) and KAKENHI(26400396).

  3. Numerical study on the perception-based network formation model

    CERN Document Server

    Jo, Hang-Hyun

    2015-01-01

    In order to understand the evolution of social networks in terms of perception-based strategic link formation, we numerically study a perception-based network formation model. Here each individual is assumed to have his/her own perception of the actual network, and use it to decide whether to create a link to other individual. An individual with the least perception accuracy can benefit from updating his/her perception using that of the most accurate individual via a new link. This benefit is compared to the cost of linking in decision making. Once a new link is created, it affects the accuracies of other individuals' perceptions, leading to a further evolution of the actual network. The initial actual network and initial perceptions are modeled by Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'enyi random networks but with different linking probabilities. Then the stable link density of the actual network is found to show discontinuous transitions or jumps according to the cost of linking. The effect of initial conditions on the complexity o...

  4. The numerical modelling of a driven nonlinear oscillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shew, C.

    1995-11-01

    The torsional oscillator in the Earth Sciences Division was developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and is the only one of its kind. It was developed to study the way rocks damp vibrations. Small rock samples are tested to determine the seismic properties of rocks, but unlike other traditional methods that propagate high frequency waves through small samples, this machine forces the sample to vibrate at low frequencies, which better models real-life properties of large masses. In this particular case, the rock sample is tested with a small crack in its middle. This forces the rock to twist against itself, causing a {open_quotes}stick-slip{close_quotes} friction, known as stiction. A numerical model that simulates the forced torsional osillations of the machine is currently being developed. The computer simulation implements the graphical language LabVIEW, and is looking at the nonlinear spring effects, the frictional forces, and the changes in amplitude and frequency of the forced vibration. Using LabVIEW allows for quick prototyping and greatly reduces the {open_quotes}time to product{close_quotes} factor. LabVIEW`s graphical environment allows scientists and engineers to use familiar terminology and icons (e.g. knobs, switches, graphs, etc.). Unlike other programming systems that use text-based languages, such as C and Basic, LabVIEW uses a graphical programming language to create programs in block diagram form.

  5. A numerical model for meltwater channel evolution in glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Jarosch

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Meltwater channels form an integral part of the hydrological system of a glacier. Better understanding of how meltwater channels develop and evolve is required to fully comprehend supraglacial and englacial meltwater drainage. Incision of supraglacial stream channels and subsequent roof closure by ice deformation has been proposed in recent literature as a possible englacial conduit formation process. Field evidence for supraglacial stream incision has been found in Svalbard and Nepal. In Iceland, where volcanic activity provides meltwater with temperatures above 0 °C, rapid enlargement of supraglacial channels has been observed. Supraglacial channels provide meltwater through englacial passages to the subglacial hydrological systems of big ice sheets, which in turn affects ice sheet motion and their contribution to eustatic sea level change. By coupling, for the first time, a numerical ice dynamic model to a hydraulic model which includes heat transfer, we investigate the evolution of meltwater channels and their incision behaviour. We present results for different, constant meltwater fluxes, different channel slopes, different meltwater temperatures, different melt rate distributions in the channel as well as temporal variations in meltwater flux. The key parameters governing incision rate and depth are channel slope, meltwater temperature loss to the ice and meltwater flux. Channel width and geometry are controlled by melt rate distribution along the channel wall. Calculated Nusselt numbers suggest that turbulent mixing is the main heat transfer mechanism in the meltwater channels studied.

  6. Numerical modeling of a compressible multiphase flow through a nozzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedzielska, Urszula; Rabinovitch, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

    2012-11-01

    New thermodynamic cycles developed for more efficient low temperature resource utilization can increase the net power production from geothermal resources and sensible waste heat recovery by 20-40%, compared to the traditional organic Rankine cycle. These improved systems consist of a pump, a liquid heat exchanger, a two-phase turbine, and a condenser. The two-phase turbine is used to extract energy from a high speed multiphase fluid and consists of a nozzle and an axial impulse rotor. In order to model and optimize the fluid flow through this part of the system an analysis of two-phase flow through a specially designed convergent-divergent nozzle has to be conducted. To characterize the flow behavior, a quasi-one-dimensional steady-state model of the multiphase fluid flow through a nozzle has been constructed. A numerical code capturing dense compressible multiphase flow under subsonic and supersonic conditions and the coupling between both liquid and gas phases has been developed. The output of the code delivers data vital for the performance optimization of the two-phase nozzle.

  7. Forecasting induced seismicity rate and Mmax using calibrated numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, D.; Suckale, J.

    2016-12-01

    At Groningen, The Netherlands, several decades of induced seismicity from gas extraction has culminated in a M 3.6 event (mid 2012). From a public safety and commercial perspective, it is desirable to anticipate future seismicity outcomes at Groningen. One way to quantify earthquake risk is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which requires an estimate of the future seismicity rate and its magnitude frequency distribution (MFD). This approach is effective at quantifying risk from tectonic events because the seismicity rate, once measured, is almost constant over timescales of interest. In contrast, rates of induced seismicity vary significantly over building lifetimes, largely in response to changes in injection or extraction. Thus, the key to extending PSHA to induced earthquakes is to estimate future changes of the seismicity rate in response to some proposed operating schedule. Numerical models can describe the physical link between fluid pressure, effective stress change, and the earthquake process (triggering and propagation). However, models with predictive potential of individual earthquakes face the difficulty of characterizing specific heterogeneity - stress, strength, roughness, etc. - at locations of interest. Modeling catalogs of earthquakes provides a means of averaging over this uncertainty, focusing instead on the collective features of the seismicity, e.g., its rate and MFD. The model we use incorporates fluid pressure and stress changes to describe nucleation and crack-like propagation of earthquakes on stochastically characterized 1D faults. This enables simulation of synthetic catalogs of induced seismicity from which the seismicity rate, location and MFD are extracted. A probability distribution for Mmax - the largest event in some specified time window - is also computed. Because the model captures the physics linking seismicity to changes in the reservoir, earthquake observations and operating information can be used to calibrate a

  8. Numerical simulations of multicomponent ecological models with adaptive methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owolabi, Kolade M; Patidar, Kailash C

    2016-01-08

    The study of dynamic relationship between a multi-species models has gained a huge amount of scientific interest over the years and will continue to maintain its dominance in both ecology and mathematical ecology in the years to come due to its practical relevance and universal existence. Some of its emergence phenomena include spatiotemporal patterns, oscillating solutions, multiple steady states and spatial pattern formation. Many time-dependent partial differential equations are found combining low-order nonlinear with higher-order linear terms. In attempt to obtain a reliable results of such problems, it is desirable to use higher-order methods in both space and time. Most computations heretofore are restricted to second order in time due to some difficulties introduced by the combination of stiffness and nonlinearity. Hence, the dynamics of a reaction-diffusion models considered in this paper permit the use of two classic mathematical ideas. As a result, we introduce higher order finite difference approximation for the spatial discretization, and advance the resulting system of ODE with a family of exponential time differencing schemes. We present the stability properties of these methods along with the extensive numerical simulations for a number of multi-species models. When the diffusivity is small many of the models considered in this paper are found to exhibit a form of localized spatiotemporal patterns. Such patterns are correctly captured in the local analysis of the model equations. An extended 2D results that are in agreement with Turing typical patterns such as stripes and spots, as well as irregular snakelike structures are presented. We finally show that the designed schemes are dynamically consistent. The dynamic complexities of some ecological models are studied by considering their linear stability analysis. Based on the choices of parameters in transforming the system into a dimensionless form, we were able to obtain a well-balanced system that

  9. An improved numerical model of the tube-tubesheet joint rolling process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Søren Bøgelund; Gervang, Bo; Ibsen, Claus Hessler

    2017-01-01

    The focus of this paper is the numerical modeling of the mechanical tube expansion process, called roller expansion, used in tube to tubesheet joints in heat exchangers. The paper compares a novel finite element based model with previously used models. The numerical models are compared...... in the numerical models. These methods provide enough information about the expanded joint to come to the conclusion that the novel method is superior to the existing models at describing the mechanical rolling process...

  10. Lightning Forecasts and Data Assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGorman, D. R.; Mansell, E. R.; Fierro, A.; Ziegler, C.

    2012-12-01

    This presentation reviews two aspects of lightning in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: forecasting lightning and assimilating lightning data into NWP models to improve weather forecasts. One of the earliest routine forecasts of lightning was developed for fire weather operations. This approach used a multi-parameter regression analysis of archived cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data and archived NWP data to optimize the combination of model state variables to use in forecast equations for various CG rates. Since then, understanding of how storms produce lightning has improved greatly. As the treatment of ice in microphysics packages used by NWP models has improved and the horizontal resolution of models has begun approaching convection-permitting scales (with convection-resolving scales on the horizon), it is becoming possible to use this improved understanding in NWP models to predict lightning more directly. An important role for data assimilation in NWP models is to depict the location, timing, and spatial extent of thunderstorms during model spin-up so that the effects of prior convection that can strongly influence future thunderstorm activity, such as updrafts and outflow boundaries, can be included in the initial state of a NWP model run. Radar data have traditionally been used, but systems that map lightning activity with varying degrees of coverage, detail, and detection efficiency are now available routinely over large regions and reveal information about storms that is complementary to the information provided by radar. Because data from lightning mapping systems are compact, easily handled, and reliably indicate the location and timing of thunderstorms, even in regions with little or no radar coverage, several groups have investigated techniques for assimilating these data into NWP models. This application will become even more valuable with the launch of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper on the GOES-R satellite, which will extend routine

  11. Numerical Models for Sound Propagation in Long Spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chenly Yuen Cheung

    Both reverberation time and steady-state sound field are the key elements for assessing the acoustic condition in an enclosed space. They affect the noise propagation, speech intelligibility, clarity index, and definition. Since the sound field in a long space is non diffuse, classical room acoustics theory does not apply in this situation. The ray tracing technique and the image source methods are two common models to fathom both reverberation time and steady-state sound field in long enclosures nowadays. Although both models can give an accurate estimate of reverberation times and steady-state sound field directly or indirectly, they often involve time-consuming calculations. In order to simplify the acoustic consideration, a theoretical formulation has been developed for predicting both steady-state sound fields and reverberation times in street canyons. The prediction model is further developed to predict the steady-state sound field in a long enclosure. Apart from the straight long enclosure, there are other variations such as a cross junction, a long enclosure with a T-intersection, an U-turn long enclosure. In the present study, an theoretical and experimental investigations were conducted to develop formulae for predicting reverberation times and steady-state sound fields in a junction of a street canyon and in a long enclosure with T-intersection. The theoretical models are validated by comparing the numerical predictions with published experimental results. The theoretical results are also compared with precise indoor measurements and large-scale outdoor experimental results. In all of previous acoustical studies related to long enclosure, most of the studies are focused on the monopole sound source. Besides non-directional noise source, many noise sources in long enclosure are dipole like, such as train noise and fan noise. In order to study the characteristics of directional noise sources, a review of available dipole source was conducted. A dipole was

  12. Numerical modelling of volatiles in the deep mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichheimer, Philipp; Thielmann, Marcel; Golabek, Gregor J.

    2017-04-01

    The transport and storage of water in the mantle significantly affects several material properties of mantle rocks and thus water plays a key role in a variety of geodynamical processes (tectonics, magmatism etc.). The processes driving transport and circulation of H2O in subduction zones remain a debated topic. Geological and seismological observations suggest different inflow mechanisms of water e.g. slab bending, thermal cracking and serpentinization (Faccenda et al., 2009; Korenaga, 2017), followed by dehydration of the slab. On Earth both shallow and steep subduction can be observed (Li et al., 2011). However most previous models (van Keken et al., 2008; Wilson et al., 2014) did not take different dip angles and subduction velocities of slabs into account. To which extent these parameters and processes influence the inflow of water still remains unclear. We present 2D numerical models simulating the influence of the various water inflow mechanisms on the mantle with changing dip angle and subduction velocity of the slab over time. The results are used to make predictions regarding the rheological behavior of the mantle wedge, dehydration regimes and volcanism at the surface. References: van Keken, P. E., et al. A community benchmark for subduction zone modeling. Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 171, 187-197 (2008). Faccenda, M., T.V. Gerya, and L. Burlini. Deep slab hydration induced by bending-related variations in tectonic pressure. Nat. Geosci. 2, 790-793 (2009). Korenaga, J. On the extent of mantle hydration caused by plate bending. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 457, 1-9 (2017). Wilson, C. R., et al. Fluid flow in subduction zones: The role of solid rheology and compaction pressure. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 401, 261-274 (2014). Li, Z. H., Z. Q. Xu, and T. V. Gerya. Flat versus steep subduction: Contrasting modes for the formation and exhumation of high- to ultrahigh-pressure rocks in continental collision zones. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 301, 65-77 (2011).

  13. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  14. Ambient vibrations of unstable rock slopes - insights from numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burjanek, Jan; Kleinbrod, Ulrike; Fäh, Donat

    2017-04-01

    The recent events in Nepal (2015 M7.8 Gorkha) and New Zealand (2016 M7.8 Kaikoura) highlighted the importance of earthquake-induced landslides, which caused significant damages. Moreover, landslide created dams present a potential developing hazard. In order to reduce the costly consequences of such events it is important to detect and characterize earthquake susceptible rock slope instabilities before an event, and to take mitigation measures. For the characterisation of instable slopes, acquisition of ambient vibrations might be a new alternative to the already existing methods. We present both observations and 3D numerical simulations of the ambient vibrations of unstable slopes. In particular, models of representative real sites have been developed based on detailed terrain mapping and used for the comparison between synthetics and observations. A finite-difference code has been adopted for the seismic wave propagation in a 3D inhomogeneous visco-elastic media with irregular free surface. It utilizes a curvilinear grid for a precise modeling of curved topography and local mesh refinement to make computational mesh finer near the free surface. Topographic site effects, controlled merely by the shape of the topography, do not explain the observed seismic response. In contrast, steeply-dipping compliant fractures have been found to play a key role in fitting observations. Notably, the synthetized response is controlled by inertial mass of the unstable rock, and by stiffness, depth and network density of the fractures. The developed models fit observed extreme amplification levels (factors of 70!) and show directionality as well. This represents a possibility to characterize slope structure and infer depth or volume of the slope instability from the ambient noise recordings in the future.

  15. 3D numerical modeling of India-Asia-like collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    -Erika Püsök, Adina; Kaus, Boris; Popov, Anton

    2013-04-01

    above a strong mantle lithosphere - the jelly sandwich model (Burov and Watts, 2006). 3D models are thus needed to investigate these hypotheses. However, fully 3D models of the dynamics of continent collision zones have only been developed very recently, and presently most research groups have relied on certain explicit assumptions for their codes. Here, we employ the parallel 3D code LaMEM (Lithosphere and Mantle Evolution Model), with a finite difference staggered grid solver, which is capable of simulating lithospheric deformation while simultaneously taking mantle flow and a free surface into account. We here report on first lithospheric and upper-mantle scale simulations in which the Indian lithosphere is indented into Asia. Acknowledgements. Funding was provided by the European Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC Grant agreement #258830. Numerical computations have been performed on JUQUEEN of the Jülich high-performance computing center. • Beaumont, C., Jamieson, R.A., Nguyen, M.H., Medvedev, S.E., 2004. Crustal channel flows: 1. Numerical models with applications to the tectonics of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogeny. J. Geophys. Res. 109, B06406. • Burov, E. & Watts, W.S., 2006. The long-term strength of continental lithosphere: "jelly sandwich" or "crème brûlée"?. GSA Today, 16, doi: 10.1130/1052-5173(2006)10161132.1130.CO;1132. • England P., Houseman, G., 1986. Finite strain calculations of continental deformation. 2. Comparison with the India-Asia collision zone. J. Geophys. Res.- Solid Earth and Planets 91 (B3), 3664-3676. • Jackson, J., 2002. Strength of the continental lithosphere: time to abandon the jelly sandwich?. GSA Today, September, 4-10. • Lechmann, S.M., May, D.A., Kaus, B.J.P., Schmalholz, S.M., 2011. Comparing thin-sheet models with 3D multilayer models for continental collision. Geophy. Int. J. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05164.x • Royden, L.H., Burchfiel, B.C., King, R

  16. Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) User Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teubert, Christopher Allen; Daigle, Matthew John; Watkins, Jason; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

    2016-01-01

    The Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) is a framework for applying prognostics. It makes applying prognostics easier by implementing many of the common elements across prognostic applications. The standard interface enables reuse of prognostic algorithms and models across systems using the GSAP framework.

  17. Numerical Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbines and their Environmental Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaherchi, T.; Seydel, J.; Aliseda, A.

    2010-12-01

    The search for predictable renewable energy has led research into marine hydrokinetic energy. Electricity can be generated from tidally-induced currents through turbines located in regions of high current speed and relatively low secondary flow intensity. Although significant technological challenges exist, the main obstacle in the development and commercial deployment of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines is the uncertainty in the environmental effect of devices. The velocity deficit in the turbulent wake of the turbine might enhance the sedimentation process of suspended particles in the water column and lead to deposition into artificial patterns that alter the benthic ecosystem. Pressure fluctuations across turbine blades and in blade tip vortices can damage internal organs of marine species as they swim through the device. These are just a few examples of the important potential environmental effects of MHK turbines that need to be addressed and investigated a priori before pilot and large scale deployment. We have developed a hierarchy of numerical models to simulate the turbulent wake behind a well characterized two bladed turbine. The results from these models (Sliding Mesh, Rotating Reference Frame, Virtual Blade Model and Actuator Disk Model) have been validated and are been used to investigate the efficiency and physical changes introduced in the environment by single or multiple MHK turbines. We will present results from sedimenting particles and model juvenile fish, with relative densities of 1.2 and 0.95, respectively. The settling velocity and terminal location on the bottom of the tidal channel is computed and compared to the simulated flow in a channel without turbines. We have observed an enhanced sedimentation, and we will quantify the degree of enhancement and the parameter range within which it is significant. For the slightly buoyant particles representing fish, the pressure history is studied statistically with particular attention to the

  18. Numerical Modeling and Experimental Testing of a Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zurkinden, Andrew Stephen; Kramer, Morten; Ferri, Francesco

    numerical values for comparison with the experimental test results which were carried out in the same time. It is for this reason why Chapter 4 does consist exclusively of numerical values. Experimental values and measured time series of wave elevations have been used throughout the report in order to a...

  19. Baseline elevated leukocyte count in peripheral blood is associated with poor survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a prognostic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tibaldi, C; Vasile, E; Bernardini, I; Orlandini, C; Andreuccetti, M; Falcone, A

    2008-10-01

    We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of several baseline variables in stage IIIB-IV non-small cell lung cancer to create a model based on independent prognostic factors. A total of 320 patients were treated with last generation chemotherapy regimens. The majority of patients received treatment with cisplatin + gemcitabine or gemcitabine alone if older than 70 years or with an ECOG performance status (PS) = 2. Performance status of 2, squamous histology, number of metastatic sites >2, presence of bone, brain, liver and contralateral lung metastases and elevated leukocyte count in peripheral blood were all statistically significant prognostic factors in univariate analyses whereas the other tested variables (sex, stage, age, presence of adrenal gland and skin metastases) were not. Subsequently, a multivariate Cox's regression analysis identified PS 2 (P leukocyte count (P Leukocyte count resulted the stronger factor after performance status. If prospectly validated, the proposed prognostic model could be useful to stratify performance status 2 patients in specific future trials.

  20. Miniaturized inertial impactor for personal airborne particulate monitoring: Numerical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortelezzi, Luca; Pasini, Silvia; Bianchi, Elena; Dubini, Gabriele

    2017-11-01

    The rising level of fine particle matter's (PM10, PM2.5 and PM1) pollution in the world has increased the interest in developing portable personal air-qualitity monitoring systems. To answer this need, we conceived a miniaturized inertial impactor. The development of such an impactor becomes more challenging as the diameter of the particles to be collected becomes smaller, since the velocities required to induce the impact of finer particulate matter become higher. To overcome these challenges, we modeled numerically the fluid dynamics and particles transport within the impactor. Our simulations show that the fluid flow within the impactor becomes unstable as the Reynolds number is increased to capture finer particles. Furthermore, the onset of these instabilities depends not only on the Reynolds number but also on the geometry of the impactor. The unsteady flow within the impactor influences the trajectories of the particles to be collected, especially the smaller particles. The particles trajectories shows that the impaction location varies substantially as the Reynolds number increases and, consequently, the efficiency of the impactor deteriorates. Finally, we optimize the design of our impactor to maximize its collection efficiency. CARIPLO Fundation - project MINUTE (Grant No. 2011-2118).

  1. Numerical modeling of gland seal erosion in a geothermal turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazur, Zdzislaw; Palacios, Luis M.; Urquiza, Gustavo [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2004-10-01

    Excessive erosion of the low-pressure rotor end gland seal of a 25 MWe geothermal turbine produced a partial loss of turbine vacuum that degraded cycle efficiency. This study used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to identify the causes of erosion and the optimal steam seal system flow conditions for reducing the erosion problem. The predictions were based upon a numerical calculation using a commercial CFD code (Adapco Star-CD) to model the rotor end gland seal with a steam flow containing hard solid particles. The results confirmed that flow conditions play a major role in rotor gland seal erosion. By changing steam seal flow pressures to vary flow, it was confirmed that there is a threshold seal flow condition below which erosion does not occur, or is minimized. Optimizing the rotor end gland seal supply pressure and intercondenser pressure reduced the turbulent flow kinetic energy by 49%, with a corresponding decrease in the erosion rate of the rotor gland seal surface. The erosion rate is related directly to the particle velocity and turbulent flow kinetic energy. Recommendations are provided for adjusting the rotor end gland seal system to avoid erosion. (Author)

  2. Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Stuart R.; Magill, Christina; Lemiale, Vincent; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Prakash, Mahesh

    2017-05-01

    Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of fluid and sediment which have the potential to cause significant damage to buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understanding lahar-induced building damage. Quantification of building damage can be difficult due to the complexity of lahar behaviour (hazard), varying number and type of buildings exposed to the lahar (exposure) and the uncertain susceptibility of buildings to lahar impacts (vulnerability). In this paper, we quantify and examine the importance of lahar hazard, exposure and vulnerability in determining building damage with reference to a case study in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Numerical modelling is used to investigate lahar properties that are important in determining the inundation area and forces applied to buildings. Building vulnerability is quantified through the development of critical depth-pressure curves based on the ultimate bending moment of masonry structures. In the case study area, results suggest that building strength plays a minor role in determining overall building losses in comparison to the effects of building exposure and hydraulic characteristics of the lahar.

  3. Experiment and numerical modeling of asymmetrically initiated hexagonal prism warhead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional fragmentation warheads are usually initiated on the axis, producing a uniform fragment distribution around the warhead, but only little portion of them can be imposed on the targets. The aimable warhead, on the other hand, using the off-axis initiations or the structure deforming, can improve the warhead energy utilization highly. Seeking methods to both enhance the fragment velocity and density has significant value for improving the target damage probability. In this article, a warhead shaped as hexagonal prism was studied using arena experiment and numerical modeling and compared with the traditional cylindrical structure. The fragment velocities and target hit patterns of the two types of warheads under axial initiation and asymmetrical initiation are obtained. It is revealed that for the hexagonal prism warhead, the asymmetrical initiation can enhance the fragment velocities by 27.71% and enhance fragment density by 34.09% compared to the axial initiation. The fragment velocity enhancement is close to that of the cylindrical warhead, but the fragment density enhancement is far above the cylindrical warhead. This indicates that the asymmetrically initiated hexagonal prism warhead is a very effective aimable warhead.

  4. Numerical modeling and analytical modeling of cryogenic carbon capture in a de-sublimating heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhitao; Miller, Franklin; Pfotenhauer, John M.

    2017-12-01

    Both a numerical and analytical model of the heat and mass transfer processes in a CO2, N2 mixture gas de-sublimating cross-flow finned duct heat exchanger system is developed to predict the heat transferred from a mixture gas to liquid nitrogen and the de-sublimating rate of CO2 in the mixture gas. The mixture gas outlet temperature, liquid nitrogen outlet temperature, CO2 mole fraction, temperature distribution and de-sublimating rate of CO2 through the whole heat exchanger was computed using both the numerical and analytic model. The numerical model is built using EES [1] (engineering equation solver). According to the simulation, a cross-flow finned duct heat exchanger can be designed and fabricated to validate the models. The performance of the heat exchanger is evaluated as functions of dimensionless variables, such as the ratio of the mass flow rate of liquid nitrogen to the mass flow rate of inlet flue gas.

  5. Numerical Study of Wind Turbine Wake Modeling Based on a Actuator Surface Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Huai-yang; Xu, Chang; Han, Xing Xing

    2017-01-01

    In the Actuator Surface Model (ALM), the turbine blades are represented by porous surfaces of velocity and pressure discontinuities to model the action of lifting surfaces on the flow. The numerical simulation is implemented on FLUENT platform combined with N-S equations. This model is improved...... and far wake of a Nibe A wind turbine, which combines wake velocity, turbulent intensity and vortex structure. Results show that ASM has better prediction accuracy and verify it's feasibility on numerical simulation of wind turbine wake....

  6. Numerical models of slab migration in continental collision zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Magni

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Continental collision is an intrinsic feature of plate tectonics. The closure of an oceanic basin leads to the onset of subduction of buoyant continental material, which slows down and eventually stops the subduction process. In natural cases, evidence of advancing margins has been recognized in continental collision zones such as India-Eurasia and Arabia-Eurasia. We perform a parametric study of the geometrical and rheological influence on subduction dynamics during the subduction of continental lithosphere. In our 2-D numerical models of a free subduction system with temperature and stress-dependent rheology, the trench and the overriding plate move self-consistently as a function of the dynamics of the system (i.e. no external forces are imposed. This setup enables to study how continental subduction influences the trench migration. We found that in all models the slab starts to advance once the continent enters the subduction zone and continues to migrate until few million years after the ultimate slab detachment. Our results support the idea that the advancing mode is favoured and, in part, provided by the intrinsic force balance of continental collision. We suggest that the advance is first induced by the locking of the subduction zone and the subsequent steepening of the slab, and next by the sinking of the deepest oceanic part of the slab, during stretching and break-off of the slab. These processes are responsible for the migration of the subduction zone by triggering small-scale convection cells in the mantle that, in turn, drag the plates. The amount of advance ranges from 40 to 220 km and depends on the dip angle of the slab before the onset of collision.

  7. Numerical modelling of iron-pnictide bulk superconductor magnetization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainslie, Mark D.; Yamamoto, Akiyasu; Fujishiro, Hiroyuki; Weiss, Jeremy D.; Hellstrom, Eric E.

    2017-10-01

    Iron-based superconductors exhibit a number of properties attractive for applications, including low anisotropy, high upper critical magnetic fields (H c2) in excess of 90 T and intrinsic critical current densities above 1 MA cm-2 (0 T, 4.2 K). It was shown recently that bulk iron-pnictide superconducting magnets capable of trapping over 1 T (5 K) and 0.5 T (20 K) can be fabricated with fine-grain polycrystalline Ba0.6K0.4Fe2As2 (Ba122). These Ba122 magnets were processed by a scalable, versatile and low-cost method using common industrial ceramic processing techniques. In this paper, a standard numerical modelling technique, based on a 2D axisymmetric finite-element model implementing the H -formulation, is used to investigate the magnetisation properties of such iron-pnictide bulk superconductors. Using the measured J c(B, T) characteristics of a small specimen taken from a bulk Ba122 sample, experimentally measured trapped fields are reproduced well for a single bulk, as well as a stack of bulks. Additionally, the influence of the geometric dimensions (thickness and diameter) on the trapped field is analysed, with a view of fabricating larger samples to increase the magnetic field available from such trapped field magnets. It is shown that, with current state-of-the-art superconducting properties, surface trapped fields >2 T could readily be achieved at 5 K (and >1 T at 20 K) with a sample of diameter 50 mm. Finally, an aspect ratio of between 1 and 1.5 for R/H (radius/thickness) would be an appropriate compromise between the accessible, surface trapped field and volume of superconducting material for bulk Ba122 magnets.

  8. Numerical modeling of perched water under Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinds, J.J.; Ge, S.; Fridrich, C.J.

    1999-01-01

    The presence of perched water near the potential high-level nuclear waste repository area at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has important implications for waste isolation. Perched water occurs because of sharp contrasts in rock properties, in particular between the strongly fractured repository host rock (the Topopah Spring welded tuff) and the immediately underlying vitrophyric (glassy) subunit, in which fractures are sealed by clays that were formed by alteration of the volcanic glass. The vitrophyre acts as a vertical barrier to unsaturated flow throughout much of the potential repository area. Geochemical analyses (Yang et al. 1996) indicate that perched water is relatively young, perhaps younger than 10,000 years. Given the low permeability of the rock matrix, fractures and perhaps fault zones must play a crucial role in unsaturated flow. The geologic setting of the major perched water bodies under Yucca Mountain suggests that faults commonly form barriers to lateral flow at the level of the repository horizon, but may also form important pathways for vertical infiltration from the repository horizon down to the water table. Using the numerical code UNSAT2, two factors believed to influence the perched water system at Yucca Mountain, climate and fault-zone permeability, are explored. The two-dimensional model predicts that the volume of water held within the perched water system may greatly increase under wetter climatic conditions, and that perched water bodies may drain to the water table along fault zones. Modeling results also show fault flow to be significantly attenuated in the Paintbrush Tuff non-welded hydrogeologic unit.

  9. Implicit coupling of turbulent diffusion with chemical reaction mechanisms for prognostic atmospheric dispersion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berlowitz, D.R.

    1996-11-01

    In the last few decades the negative impact by humans on the thin atmospheric layer enveloping the earth, the basis for life on this planet, has increased steadily. In order to halt, or at least slow down this development, the knowledge and study of these anthropogenic influence has to be increased and possible remedies have to be suggested. An important tool for these studies are computer models. With their help the atmospheric system can be approximated and the various processes, which have led to the current situation can be quantified. They also serve as an instrument to assess short or medium term strategies to reduce this human impact. However, to assure efficiency as well as accuracy, a careful analysis of the numerous processes involved in the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere is called for. This should help to concentrate on the essentials and also prevent excessive usage of sometimes scarce computing resources. The basis of the presented work is the EUMAC Zooming Model (ETM), and particularly the component calculating the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere, the model MARS. The model has two main parts: an explicit solver, where the advection and the horizontal diffusion of pollutants are calculated, and an implicit solution mechanism, allowing the joint computation of the change of concentration due to chemical reactions, coupled with the respective influence of the vertical diffusion of the species. The aim of this thesis is to determine particularly the influence of the horizontal components of the turbulent diffusion on the existing implicit solver of the model. Suggestions for a more comprehensive inclusion of the full three dimensional diffusion operator in the implicit solver are made. This is achieved by an appropriate operator splitting. A selection of numerical approaches to tighten the coupling of the diffusion processes with the calculation of the applied chemical reaction mechanisms are examined. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  10. Experimental and numerical modeling of wind flow over complex topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, Ashkan

    Wind mapping is of utmost importance in various wind engineering, wind environment, and wind energy applications. The available wind atlases usually provide wind data with low resolutions relative to the wind turbine height and size and usually neglect the effect of topographic features with relatively large or sudden changes in elevation. Developing a cost effective methodology to predict the wind patterns and to obtain wind maps over any topographic terrain is absolutely needed for wind turbine/farm siting. As the previous analytic and empirical attempts to resolve the flow over topographic features were limited to basic geometries that hardly exist in nature, applying Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurement techniques in wind tunnel and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques in numerical simulation of the flow over topography seems to be the best alternative solution to the problem. PIV measurements and CFD simulations are carried out on a 1:3000 scale model of complex topographic area. Three distinct topographic features are investigated: a valley, a ridge and a hill. The PIV measurements compare well with hot-wire based mean velocity profiles for the three cases. Moreover, the turbulence intensity profiles match well for flow regions without recirculation. The ridge wake region shows discrepancies between the two techniques which are attributed to the complexity of the flow in this region and limitations of both techniques. A procedure incorporating Geographic Information System (GIS) and surface modeling techniques is introduced to build the CFD model of a complex terrain starting from the existing topography maps with desired resolutions. Moreover, a new approach is made to simulate the terrain roughness up to ultimate roughness heights, by implementing arrays of bell-shaped roughness elements in the CFD model. The velocity profiles and velocity vectors were compared with the PIV measurements and were found to be in good agreement near the ground

  11. Accuracy and efficiency in numerical river modelling : Investigating the large effects of seemingly small numerical choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Platzek, F.W.

    2017-01-01

    A river engineer is challenged with the task of setting up an appropriate model for a certain application. The model needs to provide suitable answers to the questions asked (i.e. be effective) and needs to do this within the available time (i.e. be efficient). To set up such a model with sufficient

  12. Numerical modeling of Thermal Response Tests in Energy Piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A.; Toledo, M.; Moffat, R.; Herrera, P. A.

    2013-05-01

    conductivity of the soil is the most determinant parameter that affects the estimated thermal conductivity. For example, we observed differences of up to 50% from the expected value at the end of 100 hours of simulation for values of thermal conductivity of the soil in the range of 1 to 6 W/mK. Additionally, we observed that the results of the synthetic TRT depend upon several other parameters such as the boundary conditions used to model the interaction of the top face of the pile with the surrounding media. For example, Simulations with a constant temperature boundary condition tended to overestimate the total thermal conductivity of the whole system. This analysis demonstrates that numerical modeling is a useful tool to model energy pile systems and to interpret and design tests to evaluate their performance. Furthermore, it also reveals that the results of thermal response tests interpreted with analytical models must be evaluated with care for the assessment of the potential of low enthalpy systems, because their results depend upon a variety of factors which are neglected in the analytical models.

  13. Using Some Coupled Numerical Models in Problems of Designing an Inductive Electrothermal Equipment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEUCA Teodor

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the numerical modeling of coupling the electromagnetic and the thermal field, in the process of inductive heating, for inductive electrothermal equipments. Numerical results are carried out by using a FLUX2D application.

  14. Numerical modeling of the boundary layer Ekman using explicit algebraic turbulence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatskii, Albert; Kurbatskaya, Lyudmila

    2017-10-01

    Modeling turbulence is an important object of environmental sciences for describing an essential turbulent transport of heat and momentum in the boundary layer of the atmosphere. The many turbulence model used in the simulation of flows in the environment, based on the concept of eddy viscosity, and buoyancy effects are often included in the expression for the turbulent fluxes through empirical functions, based on the similarity theory of Monin-Obukhov, fair, strictly speaking, only in the surface layer. Furthermore, significant progress has been made in recent years in the development broader than standard hypothesis turbulent viscosity models for the eddy diffusivity momentum and heat, as a result of the recording of differential equations for the Reynolds stresses and vector turbulent heat flux in a weakly-equilibrium approximation, which neglects advection and the diffusion of certain dimensionless quantities. Explicit algebraic model turbulent Reynolds stresses and heat flux vector for the planetary boundary layer is tested in the neutral atmospheric boundary layer over the homogeneous rough surface. The present algebraic model of turbulence built on physical principles RANS (Reynolds Average Navier Stokes) approach for stratified turbulence uses three prognostic equations and shows correct reproduction of the main characteristics of the Ekman neutral planetary boundary layer (PBL): the components average of wind velocity, the angle of wind turn, turbulence statistics. Test calculations shows that this turbulence model can be used for the purposeful researches of the atmospheric boundary layer for solving of various problems of the environment.

  15. Prognostic meta-signature of breast cancer developed by two-stage mixture modeling of microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghosh Debashis

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing number of studies have profiled tumor specimens using distinct microarray platforms and analysis techniques. With the accumulating amount of microarray data, one of the most intriguing yet challenging tasks is to develop robust statistical models to integrate the findings. Results By applying a two-stage Bayesian mixture modeling strategy, we were able to assimilate and analyze four independent microarray studies to derive an inter-study validated "meta-signature" associated with breast cancer prognosis. Combining multiple studies (n = 305 samples on a common probability scale, we developed a 90-gene meta-signature, which strongly associated with survival in breast cancer patients. Given the set of independent studies using different microarray platforms which included spotted cDNAs, Affymetrix GeneChip, and inkjet oligonucleotides, the individually identified classifiers yielded gene sets predictive of survival in each study cohort. The study-specific gene signatures, however, had minimal overlap with each other, and performed poorly in pairwise cross-validation. The meta-signature, on the other hand, accommodated such heterogeneity and achieved comparable or better prognostic performance when compared with the individual signatures. Further by comparing to a global standardization method, the mixture model based data transformation demonstrated superior properties for data integration and provided solid basis for building classifiers at the second stage. Functional annotation revealed that genes involved in cell cycle and signal transduction activities were over-represented in the meta-signature. Conclusion The mixture modeling approach unifies disparate gene expression data on a common probability scale allowing for robust, inter-study validated prognostic signatures to be obtained. With the emerging utility of microarrays for cancer prognosis, it will be important to establish paradigms to meta

  16. Hydrogeological conceptual model development and numerical modelling using CONNECTFLOW, Forsmark modelling stage 2.3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Hartley, Lee; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David (Serco TAP (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2008-05-15

    Three versions of a site descriptive model (SDM) have been completed for the Forsmark area. Version 0 established the state of knowledge prior to the start of the site investigation programme. Version 1.1 was essentially a training exercise and was completed during 2004. Version 1.2 was a preliminary site description and concluded the initial site investigation work (ISI) in June 2005. Three modelling stages are planned for the complete site investigation work (CSI). These are labelled stage 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, respectively. An important component of each of these stages is to address and continuously try to resolve discipline-specific uncertainties of importance for repository engineering and safety assessment. Stage 2.1 included an updated geological model for Forsmark and aimed to provide a feedback from the modelling working group to the site investigation team to enable completion of the site investigation work. Stage 2.2 described the conceptual understanding and the numerical modelling of the bedrock hydrogeology in the Forsmark area based on data freeze 2.2. The present report describes the modelling based on data freeze 2.3, which is the final data freeze in Forsmark. In comparison, data freeze 2.3 is considerably smaller than data freeze 2.2. Therefore, stage 2.3 deals primarily with model confirmation and uncertainty analysis, e.g. verification of important hypotheses made in stage 2.2 and the role of parameter uncertainty in the numerical modelling. On the whole, the work reported here constitutes an addendum to the work reported in stage 2.2. Two changes were made to the CONNECTFLOW code in stage 2.3. These serve to: 1) improve the representation of the hydraulic properties of the regolith, and 2) improve the conditioning of transmissivity of the deformation zones against single-hole hydraulic tests. The changes to the modelling of the regolith were made to improve the consistency with models made with the MIKE SHE code, which involved the introduction

  17. A numerical water-hammer model using Scilab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rodríguez Calderón

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A water hammer can produce severe consequences regarding pipe integrity; simulation thus becomes an es-sential requirement for ensuring proper water distribution system design and operation. This article thus tries to demonstrate the importance of numerical methods in resolving such problems. A Scilab code allowing pressure propagation to be represented using the characteristics’ method applied to a case of classic literature was thus developed for numerically simulating this phenomenon. This method uses a finite difference scheme for resolving mass and momentum equations. The article presents equations governing the problem from the numerical point of view, the phenomenon’s behaviour is analysed and results obtained by the numerical approach (calculating finite differences are compared to those obtained with Scilab and the theoretical solution.

  18. NUMERICAL MODELING OF GENERALIZED NEWTONIAN FLOWS IN CHANNELS

    OpenAIRE

    Kozel, Karel

    2012-01-01

    This paper is concerned with numerical solution of generalized Newtonian flow in the channel geometry. This flow is described by the system of generalized Navier-Stokes equations. The system of equations consists of continuity and momentum equations. Viscosity in the momentum equations is not constant and is prescribed by a function depending on the shear rate. Numerical solution is based on the artificial compressibility method. Using this method allows us to solve hyperbolic-parabolic syste...

  19. Numerical model of sonic boom in 3D kinematic turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulouvrat, François; Luquet, David; Marchiano, Régis

    2015-10-01

    Sonic boom is one of the key issues to be considered in the development of future supersonic or hypersonic civil aircraft concepts. The classical sonic boom, typical for Concorde with an N-wave shape and a ground amplitude of the order of 100 Pa, prevents overland flight. Future concepts target carefully shaped sonic booms with low amplitude weak shocks. However, sonic boom when perceived at the ground level is influenced not only by the aircraft characteristics, but also by atmospheric propagation. In particular, the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sonic boom propagation near the ground is not well characterized. Flight tests performed as early as the 1960s demonstrated that classical sonic booms are sensitive to atmospheric turbulence. However, this sensitivity remains only partially understood. This is related to the fact that i) turbulence is a random process that requires a statistical approach, ii) standard methods used to predict sonic booms, mainly geometrical acoustics based on ray tracing, are inadequate within the turbulent planetary boundary layer. Moreover, the ray theory fails to predict the acoustical field in many areas of interest, such as caustics or shadow zones. These zones are of major interest for sonic boom acceptability (highest levels, lateral extent of zone of impact). These limitations outline the need for a numerical approach that is sufficiently efficient to perform a large number of realizations for a statistical approach, but that goes beyond the limitations of ray theory. With this in view, a 3D one-way numerical method solving a nonlinear scalar wave equation established for heterogeneous, moving and absorbing atmosphere, is used to assess the effects of a 3D kinematic turbulence on sonic boom in various configurations. First, a plane N-wave is propagated in the free field through random realizations of kinematic fluctuations. Then the case of a more realistic Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) is investigated, with a mean

  20. Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.

    2017-11-01

    On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

  1. Numerical modelling of combustion processes at elevated pressures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anany, Mohammed Nabil

    2010-07-01

    As more and more CO{sub 2} quantities are discharged into the atmosphere from flue gases due to fossil fuel combustion, increasing concerns over greenhouse gas emissions have caused extensive research to be directed to the field of new power generation cycles that enable CO{sub 2} capture and storage. Raising the pressure of the coal conversion enables economic separation of CO{sub 2}. Two technologies working at elevated pressures are, for example, the Integrated Gasification Combines Cycle (IGCC) technology and the pressurised oxy-fuel combustion power cycles. Both Technologies rely on conversion of coal at elevated pressures, and hence enabling the CO{sub 2} separation process. For the numerical simulation of such processes, it has been proven that global models of atmospheric char conversion are neither directly applicable nor extrapolatable for elevated-pressure atmospheres. Therefore, abandoning these global models of char conversion and developing more reliable mechanistic char gasification/combustion models is a key point in being able to successfully predict the char gasification/combustion processes taking place at elevated pressures for these new clean-coal technologies. Since oxygen is, by far, the most efficient oxidising agent, the principal aim of this work is to develop a mechanistic model for Char Burn-Out (CBO) that is capable of providing correct predictions of char oxidation rates for wide ranges of temperature and pressure. Hence, this work also contributes to the work being conducted on the char conversion modelling at elevated pressures. In order to validate the predictions of the model, the finite volume (FV) CFD combustion simulation code AIOLOS has been used. During the course of development of the coal conversion model, a non-dissipative SIMPLEC algorithm (Semi Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations Consistent) for non-staggered (collocated) grids has been developed, since its robustness has been proven to be higher than their

  2. Electrohydraulic Servomechanisms Affected by Multiple Failures: A Model-Based Prognostic Method Using Genetic Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Dalla Vedova, Matteo Davide Lorenzo; Maggiore, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    In order to detect incipient failures due to a progressive wear of a primary flight command electro hydraulic actuator (EHA), prognostics could employ several approaches; the choice of the best ones is driven by the efficacy shown in failure detection, since not all the algorithms might be useful for the proposed purpose. In other words, some of them could be suitable only for certain applications while they could not give useful results for others. Developing a fault detection algorithm able...

  3. Numerical Modeling to Support Floodplain Mapping in Coastal Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cydzik, K.; Shrestha, P. L.; Hamilton, D.; Rezakhani, M.; Scheffner, N.; Lenaburg, R.

    2009-12-01

    A hurricane-induced flood mapping study was conducted for the State of Hawaii encompassing the six major Hawaiian Islands: Hawaii, Kauai, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. The objective of the study was to use numerical methods to compute storm surge frequency relationships using the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). This paper describes the EST methodology. Ultimately, the storm surge frequency data and water surface elevations determined through the modeling effort define coastal inundation areas to revise Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FRIMs). Such information guides coastal development and highlights flood risks in coastal areas. To perform a realistic storm surge analysis, historical events impacting the islands in the study area were selected from the National Hurricane Center’s Eastern and Central North Pacific Basin Hurricane database. The database consists of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions impacting the Hawaiian Islands from 1949 through 2005 and includes records of the latitude, longitude, maximum wind speed, and, often, the central pressure of the eye of the storm. For this study, candidate events were selected based on two criteria. Storms were required to pass within 200 nautical miles of at least two of the islands with maximum winds at that point of at least tropical storm-strength (39 mph.) Of the 794 storm events in the database, 11 events met these criteria and were used to generate wind and pressure fields for the modeling effort. An assumption of the EST analysis is that each of the 11 events has an equal probability of impacting the islands within the 200 nautical mile ellipse. Therefore, the 11events were translated by one Radius-to-Maximum winds across the ellipse so that each event impacted each island, generating 102 impacting events. The hypothetical events were used to generate wind and pressure fields for input to the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) long-wave hydrodynamic model to compute storm surge at defined

  4. Numerical modeling of some engineering heat transfer problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Daniel

    1998-04-01

    Engineering heat transfer problems are very often of a complex nature and most often no analytical solutions exist. One way to create solutions to such problems is to apply numerical methods. This study concerns heat transfer problems with coupled conduction, convection and thermal radiation. Five important but different engineering problems are considered. (1) The transient temperature distribution in a rotating cylinder which is exposed to a time varying incident heat flux, e.g. a nuclear burst, is determined. The cylinder is cooled by mixed convection and thermal radiation. The effects of the leading parameters, such as rotation speed, the cooling parameters and the physical properties of the shell are studied. (2) The cooling of a roll system which is transporting/casting a thin hot plastic film. The leading roll is heated by the hot film, cooled at the interior by forced convection and on the outside by forced convection, thermal radiation and contact with a support roll. The influence of the cooling parameters and the rotation are studied. (3) The heat and mass diffusion in pre-insulated district heating/cooling pipes. The task is to determine the effects of the gas mass transport through the casing of the pipes on the thermal behaviour and effects of condensed water due to the mass diffusion of water vapour. The importance of the density of the casing, the wall thickness of the casing, the thickness of the insulation and the surrounding temperature is revealed. (4) The development of a cooling system for an electrical unit in which a time dependent heat is generated due to the Joule effect. (5) The heat transfer from a rectangular fin in a confined space. The fin is cooled by turbulent forced convection. The turbulence model applied is a low Reynolds k-{epsilon}-model. Predicted results are compared with experimental ones, and a correlation for the Nusselt number is proposed. The effects of thermal radiation for non-participating as well as participating

  5. Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, M. S. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Keene, William C. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Zhang, J. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Reichl, B. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Shi, Y. [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Hara, T. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Reid, J. S. [Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Monterey, CA (United States); Fox-Kemper, B. [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences; Craig, A. P. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Erickson, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division; Ginis, I. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI (United States). Graduate School of Oceanography; Webb, A. [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Ocean Technology, Policy, and Environment

    2016-11-08

    Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD or Na+, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.

  6. Numerical Modeling of Deep Mantle Flow: Thermochemical Convection and Entrainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyukova, Elvira; Steinberger, Bernhard; Dabrowski, Marcin; Sobolev, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    ) upwelling of the ambient material in the vicinity of the dense material (mechanism of selective withdrawal (Lister, 1989)), and (iii) cold downwellings sliding along the bottom boundary, and forcing the dense material upwards. The objective of this study is to compare the efficiency of entrainment by each of these mechanisms, and its dependence on the density and viscosity anomaly of the dense material with respect to the ambient mantle. To perform this study, we have developed a two-dimensional FEM code to model thermal convection in a hollow cylinder domain with presence of chemical heterogeneities, and using a realistic viscosity profile. We present the results of the simulations that demonstrate the entrainment mechanisms described above. In addition, we perfom numerical experiments in a Cartesian box domain, where the bottom right boundary of the box is deformed to resemble the geometry of an LLSVP edge. In some of the experiments, the bottom left part of the boundary is moving towards the right boundary, simulating a slab sliding along the core-mantle boundary towards an LLSVP. These experiments allow a detailed study of the process of entrainment, and its role in the thermochemical evolution of the Earth.

  7. Application of Earth Sciences Products for use in Next Generation Numerical Aerosol Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-30

    quality-assurance and quality-control procedures for over-land MODIS aerosol product and AVHRR, and expand assimilation to all traditional dark-target...APPROACH Work performed in FY10 focused on the development of prognostic error models for MODIS over- land data and our internal CALIOP...measurements from the global AERONET monitoring network, coupled with land surface products for albedo and snow. These were used to perform a detailed

  8. Hencky-type discrete model for pantographic structures: numerical comparison with second gradient continuum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Emilio; dell'Isola, Francesco; Cazzani, Antonio; Rizzi, Nicola Luigi

    2016-08-01

    Hencky (Über die angenäherte Lösung von Stabilitätsproblemen im Raum mittels der elastischen Gelenkkette. Ph.D. thesis, Engelmann, 1921) proposed a discrete model for elasticae by introducing rigid bars and rotational springs. Hencky (Proc R Soc Lond A Math Phys Eng Sci 472(2185), 2016) approach has been introduced to heuristically motivate the need of second gradient continua. Here, we present a novel numerical code implementing directly the discrete Hencky-type model which is robust enough to solve the problem of the determination of equilibrium configurations in the large deformation and displacement regimes. We apply this model to study some potentially applicable problems, and we compare its performances with those of the second gradient continuum model. The numerical evidence presented supports the conjecture that Hencky-type converges to second gradient model.

  9. Modelling surface water flood risk using coupled numerical and physical modelling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, D. L.; Pattison, I.; Yu, D.

    2015-12-01

    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs due to intense precipitation events where rainfall cannot infiltrate into the sub-surface or drain via storm water systems. The perceived risk appears to have increased in recent years with pluvial flood events seeming more severe and frequent within the UK. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for one third of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas being at risk of a 1 in 200 year flood event. Surface water flooding research often focuses upon using 1D, 2D or 1D-2D coupled numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer an alternative and innovative environment to collect data within. A controlled, closed system allows independent variables to be altered individually to investigate cause and effect relationships. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered physical model consisting of: (i) a mist nozzle type rainfall simulator able to simulate a range of rainfall intensities similar to those observed within the United Kingdom, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, scaled plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of factors such as slope, impermeability, building density/configuration and storm dynamics on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a range of terrestrial surface conditions. Results obtained within the physical modelling environment will be compared with numerical modelling results using FloodMap (Yu & Lane, 2006

  10. Towards A Model-based Prognostics Methodology for Electrolytic Capacitors: A Case Study Based on Electrical Overstress Accelerated Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Biswas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model-driven methodology for predict- ing the remaining useful life of electrolytic capacitors. This methodology adopts a Kalman filter approach in conjunction with an empirical state-based degradation model to predict the degradation of capacitor parameters through the life of the capacitor. Electrolytic capacitors are important components of systems that range from power supplies on critical avion- ics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their comparatively low reliability and given their critical role in the system, they are good candidates for component level prognostics and health management. Prognostics provides a way to assess remain- ing useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. This paper proposes and empirical degradation model and discusses experimental results for an accelerated aging test performed on a set of identical capacitors subjected to electrical stress. The data forms the basis for developing the Kalman-filter based remaining life prediction algorithm.

  11. Prognostic factors for metachronous contralateral breast cancer: a comparison of the linear Cox regression model and its artificial neural network extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, L; Coradini, D; Biganzoli, E; Boracchi, P; Marubini, E; Pilotti, S; Salvadori, B; Silvestrini, R; Veronesi, U; Zucali, R; Rilke, F

    1997-06-01

    The purpose of the present study was to assess prognostic factor for metachronous contralateral recurrence of breast cancer (CBC). Two factors were of particular interest, namely estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PgR) receptors assayed with the biochemical method in primary tumor tissue. Information was obtained from a prospective clinical database for 1763 axillary node-negative women who had received curative surgery, mostly of the conservative type, and followed-up for a median of 82 months. The analysis was performed based on both a standard (linear) Cox model and an artificial neural network (ANN) extension of this model proposed by Faraggi and Simon. Furthermore, to assess the prognostic importance of the factors considered, model predictive ability was computed. In agreement with already published studies, the results of our analysis confirmed the prognostic role of age at surgery, histology, and primary tumor site, in that young patients (extensive intraductal component, and a lower hazard in infiltrating lobular carcinoma or other histotypes. In spite of the above findings, the predictive value of both the standard and ANN Cox models was relatively low, thus suggesting an intrinsic limitation of the prognostic variables considered, rather than their suboptimal modeling. Research for better prognostic variables should therefore continue.

  12. Development and internal validation of a prognostic model to predict recurrence free survival in patients with adult granulosa cell tumors of the ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Meurs, Hannah S.; Schuit, Ewoud; Horlings, Hugo M.; van der Velden, Jacobus; van Driel, Willemien J.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Kenter, Gemma G.; Buist, Marrije R.

    2014-01-01

    Models to predict the probability of recurrence free survival exist for various types of malignancies, but a model for recurrence free survival in individuals with an adult granulosa cell tumor (GCT) of the ovary is lacking. We aimed to develop and internally validate such a prognostic model. We

  13. Numerical experiment with modelled return echo of a satellite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We have simulated the return echo of a satellite altimeter from a rough ocean surface using an analytical formula and have studied its sensitivity with respect to various oceanic and altimeter parameters. Our numerical expcriment shows that for normally observed significant wave heights (SWFI) the effect of ...

  14. A numerical model of the torque-free motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folgueira, M.; Souchay, J.

    We present here the preliminary results obtained by applying the numerical Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method to the study of the torque-free motion in terms of the rectangular components of the angular velocity vector, Euler's angles and Andoyer's variables, depending on the different values of the principal moments of inertia.

  15. A Tractable Numerical Model for Exploring Nonadiabatic Quantum Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camrud, Evan; Turner, Daniel B.

    2017-01-01

    Numerous computational and spectroscopic studies have demonstrated the decisive role played by nonadiabatic coupling in photochemical reactions. Nonadiabatic coupling drives photochemistry when potential energy surfaces are nearly degenerate at avoided crossings or truly degenerate at unavoided crossings. The dynamics induced by nonadiabatic…

  16. Numerical Modeling of Fluid Flow in the Tape Casting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2011-01-01

    The flow behavior of the fluid in the tape casting process is analyzed. A simple geometry is assumed for running the numerical calculations in ANSYS Fluent and the main parameters are expressed in non-dimensional form. The effect of different values for substrate velocity and pressure force...

  17. Numerical Modeling of Cometary Meteoroid Streams Encountering Mars and Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, A. A.; Vaubaillon, J.

    2011-01-01

    We have simulated numerically the existence of meteoroid streams that encounter the orbits of Mars and Venus, potentially producing meteor showers at those planets. We find that 17 known comets can produce such showers, the intensity of which can be determined through observations. Six of these streams contain dense dust trails capable of producing meteor outbursts.

  18. Selection and formulation of a numerical shallow water wave hindcast model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herbers, T.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Booij, N.

    1983-01-01

    Formulate a numerical wave hindcast model which can be used to obtain realistic estimates of wave conditions in the Oosterschelde as input to a numerical geomorphological model. A directionally decoupled, parametric wave hindeast model is recommended that includes parameterized versions of

  19. Numerical Modelling by FLAC on Coal Fires in North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusat, D.; Drebenstedt, C.

    2009-04-01

    Coal fires occur in many countries all over the world (e.g. Australia, China, India, Indonesia, USA and Russia) in underground and on surface. In China the most coal fires occur especially in the North. Economical and environmental damages are the negative effects of the coal fires: coal fires induce open fractures and fissures within the seam and neighbouring rocks. So that these are the predominant pathways for oxygen flow and exhaust gases from a coal fire. All over northern China there are a large number of coal fires, which cause and estimated yearly coal loss of between 100 and 200 million tons ([1], [2], [3]). Spontaneous combustion is a very complicated process and is influenced by number of factors. The process is an exothermic reaction in which the heat generated is dissipated by conduction to the surrounding environment, by radiation, by convection to the ventilation flow, and in some cases by evaporation of moisture from the coal [4]. The coal fires are very serious in China, and the dangerous extent of spontaneous combustion is bad which occupies about 72.9% in mining coal seams. During coal mining in China, the coal fires of spontaneous combustion are quite severity. The dangerous of coal spontaneous combustion has been in 56% of state major coalmines [5]. The 2D and 3D-simulation models describing coal fire damages are strong tools to predict fractures and fissures, to estimate the risk of coal fire propagation into neighbouring seams, to test and evaluate coal fire fighting and prevention methods. The numerical simulations of the rock mechanical model were made with the software for geomechanical and geotechnical calculations, the programs FLAC and FLAC3D [6]. To fight again the coal fires, exist several fire fighting techniques. Water, slurries or liquefied nitrogen can be injected to cool down the coal or cut of air supply with the backfill and thereby extinct the fire. Air supply also can be cut of by covering the coal by soil or sealing of the

  20. A Numerical Simulation of Hodgkin-Huxley Model : An Approach to an Understanding of a Brain

    OpenAIRE

    平田, 隆幸; 黒岩, 丈介; 浅井, 竜哉

    2004-01-01

    A numerical simulation of Hodgkin-Huxley model was carried out by using a Runge-Kutta method. In the numerical simulation, the functions of Numerical Recipes in C were used for solving the Hodgkin-Huxley equation. The accuracy of numerical solutions was discussed for both simple Runge-Kutta method and adaptive stepsize control Runge-Kutta method. The difference between simulation performed by using float type variables and one by using double type variables was also discussed. A large neural ...

  1. Numerical investigation of the Taylor-Couette and Batchelor flows with heat transfer: physics and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiełczewski, K.; Tuliszka-Sznitko, E.; Bontoux, P.

    2014-08-01

    In the paper the authors present the results obtained during a numerical investigation (Direct Numerical Simulation/Spectral Vanishing Viscosity method - DNS/SVV) of a flow with heat transfer in rotating cavities (i.e. the flow between two concentric disks and two concentric cylinders). These model flows are useful from numerical and experimental point of view among others because of the simplicity of their geometry. Simultaneously, the flows in rotating cavities appear in numerous industrial installations and machines in the field of mechanics and chemistry, e.g., in ventilation installations, desalination tanks and waste water tanks, in cooling system, in gas turbines and axial compressors. In the paper attention is focused on the laminar-turbulent region in the configuration of the large aspect ratio i.e. Taylor-Couette flow (a Batchelor flow case of small aspect ratio Γ = 0.04 is also presented for comparison). The main purpose of computations is to investigate the influence of different parameters (the aspect ratio, the end-wall boundary conditions and temperature gradient) on the flow structure and flow characteristics. For the non-isothermal flow cases the Nusselt number distributions along cylinders are presented and are correlated with the flow structures. The λ2 method has been used for visualization.

  2. The Qualitative and Numerical Analysis of the Cosmological Model Based on Phantom Scalar Field with Self

    CERN Document Server

    Ignat'ev, Yu G

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the cosmological model based on phantom scalar field on the ground of qualitative analysis of the system of the cosmological model's differential equations and show that as opposed to models with classical scalar field, such models have stable asymptotic solutions with constant value of the potential both in infinite past and infinite future. We also develop numerical models of the cosmological evolution models with phantom scalar field in this paper. {\\bf keywords}: cosmological model, phantom scalar field, quality analysis, asymptotic behavior, numerical simulation, numerical gravitation.\\\\ {\\bf PACS}: 04.20.Cv, 98.80.Cq, 96.50.S 52.27.Ny

  3. A laboratory prognostic index model for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arife Ulas

    Full Text Available We aimed to establish a laboratory prognostic index (LPI in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients based on hematologic and biochemical parameters and to analyze the predictive value of LPI on NSCLC survival.The study retrospectively reviewed 462 patients with advanced NSCLC diagnosed between 2000 and 2010 in a single institution. We developed an LPI that included serum levels of white blood cells (WBC, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, albumin, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase (ALP, based on the results of a Cox regression analysis. The patients were classified into 3 LPI groups as follows: LPI 0: normal; LPI 1: one abnormal laboratory finding; and LPI 2: at least 2 abnormal laboratory findings.The median follow up period was 44 months; the median overall survival (OS and median progression-free survival (PFS were 11 and 6 months, respectively. A multivariate analysis revealed that the following could be used as independent prognostic factors: an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score (ECOG PS ≥2, a high LDH level, serum albumin 10.5 g/dL, number of metastases>2, presence of liver metastases, malignant pleural effusion, or receiving chemotherapy ≥4 cycles. The 1-year OS rates according to LPI 0, LPI 1, and LPI 2 were 54%, 34%, and 17% (p<0.001, respectively and 6-month PFS rates were 44%, 27%, and 15% (p<0.001, respectively. The LPI was a significant predictor for OS (Hazard Ratio (HR: 1.41; 1.05-1.88, p<0.001 and PFS (HR: 1.48; 1.14-1.93, p<0.001.An LPI is an inexpensive, easily accessible and independent prognostic index for advanced NSCLC and may be helpful in making individualized treatment plans and predicting survival rates when combined with clinical parameters.

  4. Significance of stromal-1 and stromal-2 signatures and biologic prognostic model in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdou, Asmaa Gaber; Asaad, Nancy; Kandil, Mona; Shabaan, Mohammed; Shams, Asmaa

    2017-01-01

    Objective : Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) is a heterogeneous group of tumors with different biological and clinical characteristics that have diverse clinical outcomes and response to therapy. Stromal-1 signature of tumor microenvironment of DLBCL represents extracellular matrix deposition and histiocytic infiltrate, whereas stromal-2 represents angiogenesis that could affect tumor progression. Methods : The aim of the present study is to assess the significance of stromal-1 signature using SPARC-1 and stromal-2 signature using CD31 expression and then finally to construct biologic prognostic model (BPM) in 60 cases of DLBCL via immunohistochemistry. Results : Microvessel density (PBPM showed that 42 cases (70%) were of low biologic score (0–1) and 18 cases (30%) were of high biologic score (2–3). Low BPM cases showed less probability for splenic involvement (P=0.04) and a higher rate of complete response to therapy compared with high score cases (P=0.08). Conclusions : The DLBCL microenvironment could modulate tumor progression behavior since angiogenesis and SPARC positive stromal cells promote dissemination by association with spleen involvement and capsular invasion. Biologic prognostic models, including modified BPM, which considered cell origin of DLBCL and stromal signature pathways, could determine DLBCL progression and response to therapy. PMID:28607806

  5. Composite prognostic models across the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease spectrum: Clinical application in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lückhoff, Hilmar K; Kruger, Frederik C; Kotze, Maritha J

    2015-01-01

    Heterogeneity in clinical presentation, histological severity, prognosis and therapeutic outcomes characteristic of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) necessitates the development of scientifically sound classification schemes to assist clinicians in stratifying patients into meaningful prognostic subgroups. The need for replacement of invasive liver biopsies as the standard method whereby NAFLD is diagnosed, graded and staged with biomarkers of histological severity injury led to the development of composite prognostic models as potentially viable surrogate alternatives. In the present article, we review existing scoring systems used to (1) confirm the presence of undiagnosed hepatosteatosis; (2) distinguish between simple steatosis and NASH; and (3) predict advanced hepatic fibrosis, with particular emphasis on the role of NAFLD as an independent cardio-metabolic risk factor. In addition, the incorporation of functional genomic markers and application of emerging imaging technologies are discussed as a means to improve the diagnostic accuracy and predictive performance of promising composite models found to be most appropriate for widespread clinical adoption. PMID:26019735

  6. Fractional Calculus in Hydrologic Modeling: A Numerical Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David A. Benson; Mark M. Meerschaert; Jordan Revielle

    2012-01-01

    Fractional derivatives can be viewed either as a handy extension of classical calculus or, more deeply, as mathematical operators defined by natural phenomena. This follows the view that the diffusion equation is defined as the governing equation of a Brownian motion. In this paper, we emphasize that fractional derivatives come from the governing equations of stable Levy motion, and that fractional integration is the corresponding inverse operator. Fractional integration, and its multi-dimensional extensions derived in this way, are intimately tied to fractional Brownian (and Levy) motions and noises. By following these general principles, we discuss the Eulerian and Lagrangian numerical solutions to fractional partial differential equations, and Eulerian methods for stochastic integrals. These numerical approximations illuminate the essential nature of the fractional calculus.

  7. Numerical simulations and mathematical models of flows in complex geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernandez Garcia, Anier

    The research work of the present thesis was mainly aimed at exploiting one of the strengths of the Lattice Boltzmann methods, namely, the ability to handle complicated geometries to accurately simulate flows in complex geometries. In this thesis, we perform a very detailed theoretical analysis...... and through the Chapman-Enskog multi-scale expansion technique the dependence of the kinetic viscosity on each scheme is investigated. Seeking for optimal numerical schemes to eciently simulate a wide range of complex flows a variant of the finite element, off-lattice Boltzmann method [5], which uses...... the characteristic based integration is also implemented. Using the latter scheme, numerical simulations are conducted in flows of different complexities: flow in a (real) porous network and turbulent flows in ducts with wall irregularities. From the simulations of flows in porous media driven by pressure gradients...

  8. Numerical modeling of a large deformation thermoforming process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrank, M.G.

    1988-04-01

    A numerical solution, using finite element methods, is presented for the simulation of a blow-molding process used to form a thermoplastic polymer (polyethylene terephthalate). The constitutive relationship employed in the analysis is a modification of the creep power law, allowing both strain hardening and strain rate hardening of the material. Analytical results compare well with experimental data for both rate of deformation during the forming process and strain distribution in the final formed configuration. 15 figs.

  9. Numerical Modeling of Transient Heat Transfer in Longitudinal Fin

    OpenAIRE

    Farshad Panahizadeh; Mohammed Hasnat; Ashkan Ghafour

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the present numerical study is to investigate the transient heat transfer in one kind of all-purpose longitudinal fin with the triangular profile. The lateral surface of the concerned fin and the tip of it are subjected to general situations included heat flux at the base and insulation on the tip. For this study developed a one dimensional in house code written by Fortran 90 programming language by using finite difference method with an implicit scheme...

  10. Numerical and physical modeling of cutoff walls against saltwater intrusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crestani, Elena; Camporese, Matteo; Salandin, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Seawater intrusion is a relevant problem for many communities living in small islands, where the amount of fresh water available for human consumption depends on the delicate equilibrium between the natural groundwater recharge from rainfall and the surrounding sea. However, it can represent a significant issue also for coastal regions where groundwater is extracted for water supply: an excessive extraction to meet growing demands for drinking water and irrigation purposes leads to a decrease of seaward flows of fresh water and consequently to an increase of seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Cutoff walls represent one of the possible strategies that can be adopted to reduce seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers and to limit the inland progression of the saltwater wedge. In this study, on the basis of several preliminary simulations developed by the SUTRA code, a cutoff wall occluding 70% of the aquifer depth is designed for a physical experiment, whose setup details are reported as follows. The physical model represents the terminal part of a coastal aquifer and consists of a flume 500 cm long, 30 cm wide and 60 cm high, filled for an height of 49 cm with glass beads with a d50 of 0.6 mm and a uniformity coefficient d60/d10 1.5. The resulting porous medium is homogeneous, with porosity of about 0.37 and hydraulic conductivity of about 1.3 10-3 m/s. Upstream from the sandbox, a tank filled by freshwater provides recharge for the aquifer. The downstream tank simulates the sea and red food dye is added to the saltwater to easily visualize the salt wedge. The volume of the downstream tank is about five times the upstream one, and, due to the small filtration discharge, minimizing salt concentration variations due to the incoming freshwater flow. The hydraulic gradient during the tests is constant, due to the fixed water level in the tanks. Water levels and discharged flow rate are continuously monitored. The cutoff wall was realized with sodium bentonite

  11. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  12. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  13. Numerical implementation of a state variable model for friction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korzekwa, D.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Boyce, D.E. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    1995-03-01

    A general state variable model for friction has been incorporated into a finite element code for viscoplasticity. A contact area evolution model is used in a finite element model of a sheet forming friction test. The results show that a state variable model can be used to capture complex friction behavior in metal forming simulations. It is proposed that simulations can play an important role in the analysis of friction experiments and the development of friction models.

  14. Discrete Model for Concrete Fracture: Numerical Study of Dynamic Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Květoň Josef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution presents simulations on concrete specimens. The discrete meso-scale particle model with random geometry based on Voronoi tessellation is used. The model was enhanced with dynamic solver based on implicit Newmark method. Model is tested on cantilever beam loaded by a force at the free end to verify the ability of the model to simulate the dynamic behavior of a simple linear elastic material. Results computed with different time discretization and model settings are compared. The behavior of the model in nonlinear regime is investigated on concrete specimens loaded at different displacement rates. The constitutive law used within this contribution is insensitive to strain rate.

  15. Prediction of hydroxyl concentrations in cement pore water using a numerical cement hydration model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eijk, R.J.; Brouwers, Jos

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a 3D numerical cement hydration model is used for predicting alkali and hydroxyl concentrations in cement pore water. First, this numerical model is calibrated for Dutch cement employing both chemical shrinkage and calorimetric experiments. Secondly, the strength development of some

  16. Numerical Modeling of Fin and Tube Heat Exchanger for Waste Heat Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Shobhana; Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph

    In the present work, multiphysics numerical modeling is carried out to predict the performance of a liquid-gas fin and tube heat exchanger design. Three-dimensional (3D) steady-state numerical model using commercial software COMSOL based on finite element method (FEM) is developed. The study...

  17. A review of recent advances in numerical modelling of local scour problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sumer, B. Mutlu

    2014-01-01

    A review is presented of recent advances in numerical modelling of local scour problems. The review is organized in five sections: Highlights of numerical modelling of local scour; Influence of turbulence on scour; Backfilling of scour holes; Scour around complex structures; and Scour protection ...

  18. A Generic Software Architecture For Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teubert, Christopher; Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai; Watkins, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Prognostics is a systems engineering discipline focused on predicting end-of-life of components and systems. As a relatively new and emerging technology, there are few fielded implementations of prognostics, due in part to practitioners perceiving a large hurdle in developing the models, algorithms, architecture, and integration pieces. As a result, no open software frameworks for applying prognostics currently exist. This paper introduces the Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP), an open-source, cross-platform, object-oriented software framework and support library for creating prognostics applications. GSAP was designed to make prognostics more accessible and enable faster adoption and implementation by industry, by reducing the effort and investment required to develop, test, and deploy prognostics. This paper describes the requirements, design, and testing of GSAP. Additionally, a detailed case study involving battery prognostics demonstrates its use.

  19. How to Overcome Numerical Challenges to Modeling Stirling Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyson, Rodger W.; Wilson, Scott D.; Tew, Roy C.

    2004-01-01

    Nuclear thermal to electric power conversion carries the promise of longer duration missions and higher scientific data transmission rates back to Earth for a range of missions, including both Mars rovers and deep space missions. A free-piston Stirling convertor is a candidate technology that is considered an efficient and reliable power conversion device for such purposes. While already very efficient, it is believed that better Stirling engines can be developed if the losses inherent in current designs could be better understood. However, they are difficult to instrument and so efforts are underway to simulate a complete Stirling engine numerically. This has only recently been attempted and a review of the methods leading up to and including such computational analysis is presented. And finally it is proposed that the quality and depth of Stirling loss understanding may be improved by utilizing the higher fidelity and efficiency of recently developed numerical methods. One such method, the Ultra HI-FI technique is presented in detail.

  20. Numerical Models of Europan Ocean Dynamics: Sensitivity to Fluid Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soderlund, Krista M.; E Schmidt, Britney; Blankenship, Don

    2017-10-01

    Europa possesses a global liquid water ocean overlain by an ice shell that mediates heat flux from the deeper interior. Since no direct measurements of ocean dynamics and chemistry are presently available, yet are crucial for assessing the satellite's potential habitability, oceanographic processes must be inferred from other observations and/or through numerical and laboratory experiments. We use numerical thermal convection simulations to test the sensitivity of global ocean dynamics to uncertainties in fluid properties that depend on the poorly constrained ocean salinity as parameterized by the Prandtl number, Pr. This dimensionless ratio of viscous to thermal diffusivities is expected to be Pr~7 for pure water and Pr~14 for seawater with a salinity that is slightly higher than that of the terrestrial ocean. In contrast, Pr~1 may be appropriate when (turbulent) eddy diffusivity estimates are employed. Given this range of possible values, we determine how the ocean currents, heat transport, and ice-ocean coupling vary as a function of Prandtl number and assess whether their behaviors may be used to help constrain Europa’s ocean salinity.