Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference

Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

2013-01-01

This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

2013-07-01

This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klaric, Mario

2010-09-15

Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

2005-01-01

The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olander, Lydia P; Murray, Brian C; Gibbs, Holly K; Steininger, Marc; Swenson, Jennifer J

2008-01-01

Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

IAEA activities related to safety indicators, time frames and reference scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batandjieva, B.; Hioki, K.; Metcalf, P.

2002-01-01

which was completed last year. The project proposed a methodology for the development of reference biospheres which is in line with suggestions of the International Commission for Radiological Protection 81 (ICRP). Its application is illustrated by way of three example biospheres. At present the Agency is continuing the work on development of reference scenarios for waste disposal in order to assist in the development of international agreement on the main principles and concepts for development and use of reference scenarios for use in the development of safety cases and decision making related to waste repositories. (authors)

Correlated wind-power production and electric load scenarios for investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baringo, L.; Conejo, A.J.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Investment models require an accurate representation of the involved uncertainty. ► Demand and wind power production are correlated and uncertain parameters. ► Two methodologies are provided to represent uncertainty and correlation. ► An accurate uncertainty representation is crucial to get optimal results. -- Abstract: Stochastic programming constitutes a useful tool to address investment problems. This technique represents uncertain input data using a set of scenarios, which should accurately describe the involved uncertainty. In this paper, we propose two alternative methodologies to efficiently generate electric load and wind-power production scenarios, which are used as input data for investment problems. The two proposed methodologies are based on the load- and wind-duration curves and on the K-means clustering technique, and allow representing the uncertainty of and the correlation between electric load and wind-power production. A case study pertaining to wind-power investment is used to show the interest of the proposed methodologies and to illustrate how the selection of scenarios has a significant impact on investment decisions.

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico; Escenarios energeticos para la produccion de hidrogeno en Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)], e-mail: iqoren@gmail.com

2009-10-15

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO{sub 2}. The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO{sub 2}, the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2016-11-01

The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape

Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

2013-01-01

Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Reference model for apparel product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Cristina Moretti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a reference model for the implementation of the process of product development (PDP for apparel. The tool was developed through an interactive process of comparison between theoretical. Managers in companies and professionals working in this market can utilize the reference model as a source for the organization and improvement of the PDP for apparel and the universities as a reference source for systematized teaching of this process. This model represents the first comprehensive attempt to develop an instrument at a detailed level (macro phases, phases, activities, inputs and outputs at each stage and at the gates to systematize the PDP process for fashion products and to consider its particularities.

Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer K. Costanza

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Reference costs of the electric power production; Couts de reference de la production electrique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-06-01

This study periodically realized by the DGEMP aims to compare the competitiveness of the different channels of electric power production, for different utilization conditions. The first part ''reference costs of the 2003 electric power production'' examines the prices of the electric power produced by different channels in particular in the framework of the industrial implementing in 2015. The nuclear and thermal power plants are concerned. The second part is devoted to the decentralized production channels (wind energy, photovoltaic, cogeneration heat-electricity) is under construction and will be presented next year. (A.L.B.)

Certified reference materials of trace elements in water

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Many decisions regarding the suitability of material/products are based on the ... In the present scenario of globalization of economy, use of certified reference ... our national accreditation body, National Accreditation Board for Testing and ...

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

Production and Comprehension of Time Reference in Korean Nonfluent Aphasia

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jiyeon; Kwon, Miseon; Na, Hae Ri; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Thompson, Cynthia K.

2015-01-01

Objectives Individuals with nonfluent agrammatic aphasia show impaired production and comprehension of time reference via verbal morphology. However, cross-linguistic findings to date suggest inconsistent evidence as to whether tense processing in general is impaired or time reference to the past is selectively difficult in this population. This study examined production and comprehension of time reference via verb morphology in Korean-speaking individuals with nonfluent aphasia. Methods A group of 9 healthy controls and 8 individuals with nonfluent aphasia (5 for the production task) participated in the study. Sentence priming production and auditory sentence to picture matching tasks were used, parallel with the previous cross-linguistic experiments in English, Chinese, Turkish, and others. Results The participants with nonfluent aphasia showed different patterns of impairment in production and comprehension. In production, they were impaired in all time references with errors being dominated by substitution of incorrect time references and other morpho-phonologically well-formed errors, indicating a largely intact morphological affixation process. In comprehension, they showed selective impairment of the past, consistent with the cross-linguistic evidence from English, Chinese, Turkish, and others. Conclusion The findings suggest that interpretation of past time reference poses particular difficulty in nonfluent aphasia irrespective of typological characteristics of languages; however, in production, language-specific morpho-semantic functions of verbal morphology may play a significant role in selective breakdowns of time reference. PMID:26290861

Emissions in 2001 conform the reference scenario (GE WLO with high oil price) and including Clean and Efficient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroon, P.; Menkveld, M.

2008-08-01

This memo shows the calculation of an estimate for the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 in the reference scenario (GE WLO is the Dutch abbreviation for Global Economy and Welfare and Environment), including the impact of the Clean and Efficient programme from the assessment of ECN (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands) and MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) [nl

Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian J. Peters

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: a consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik; Astrup, Thomas

2012-12-18

In the endeavor of optimizing the sustainability of bioenergy production in Denmark, this consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluated the environmental impacts associated with the production of heat and electricity from one hectare of Danish arable land cultivated with three perennial crops: ryegrass (Lolium perenne), willow (Salix viminalis) and Miscanthus giganteus. For each, four conversion pathways were assessed against a fossil fuel reference: (I) anaerobic co-digestion with manure, (II) gasification, (III) combustion in small-to-medium scale biomass combined heat and power (CHP) plants and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario: inflationary trajectories and particle production

CERN Document Server

Alvarez-Gaume, Luis; Jimenez, Raul

2012-01-01

We discuss the phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario. We concentrate on two aspects: inflationary trajectories and particle production. Our findings can be summarized in two main results: first, that inflationary trayectories that are very flat and provide enough number of e-foldings are very natural in the scenario without fine tunning. We present a general formalism to identify attractors in multi-field inflation regardless of trajectories fulfilling the slow-roll conditions. We then explore particle production in the model and show how the inflaton naturally transmutes into the current dark matter particle, thus providing a mechanism to identify the inflaton today: it is the dark matter. One interesting feature of our model is that it provides a novel mechanism to generate particles and entropy in the universe: the filling of the Fermi sphere up to a given momentum pF due to the sea of goldstinos that are an important part of the matter generated after inflation. With this mechanism in hand we pr...

Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang, Van Thanh

2016-01-01

shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO_2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Vegte, W.F.; Horváth, I.

2007-01-01

The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in

Biorefinery of microalgae - opportunities and constraints for different production scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hariskos, Ioanna; Posten, Clemens

2014-06-01

In order to design economically feasible production processes it is necessary, as part of the biorefinery concept, to valorize all constituents of the microalgal biomass. Such an approach requires appropriate biorefinery side-process strategies to be adapted to production of the primary product. These strategies are particularly valid for microalgae, since the composition and amount of residual biomass can vary significantly depending on cell stoichiometry and cultivation techniques. This review investigates opportunities and constraints for biorefinery concepts in production scenarios for four different products from microalgae with different market volumes, including high- and medium-value products, whole cells and biodiesel. Approaches to close material and energy balances, as well as to adapt the biorefinery according to biological potential, process routes, and market needs are presented, which will further contribute to making the biorefinery concept a success. Copyright © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Decision support systems in nuclear emergencies: A scenario-based comparison of domestic and reference tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vamanu, D.; Slavnicu, S. D.; Slavnicu, E.; Vamanu, B.

2004-01-01

The article reports selective results of a comparison between RODOS - an emerging decision support system for the management of nuclear emergencies in Europe developed by an international research consortium under EEC aegis, and a resident software package developed and maintained for similar purposes at IFIN-HH, Bucharest. Reproducible similarity patterns obtained in the output data distributions provide for simple normalising procedures that may ensure convergent radiological assessments. When properly consolidated on a sufficient scenario casuistry, such procedures could lend a certain resilience to domestic decision support tools over the interim lead time required by the full implementation of RODOS, or other major league, internationally accepted reference systems. (authors)

The ''reference costs'' of the electrical production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-05-01

This study objective is to give an aid for the investments choice in the field of electricity production and for national choices in the field of long-dated production. Important evolutions appeared since the last exercise ''reference costs'' of 1993. Electricity production costs, presented in this study, are actualized economic costs. They consider the following production facilities: nuclear, pulverized coal with fumes processing, circulating fluidized bed, combustion turbines, cogeneration and wind turbines. (A.L.B.)

Scenario Approach to the Planning of the Production Activities of the Enterprise with a Discrete Type of Production (for Example, Electrical Engineering Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krylova E.V.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In conditions of global economic instability the success of electromechanical enterprises depends on their ability to react quickly to challenges of external environment. In order to create background and conditions for this ability the given enterprises refer to manufacturing activity planning, using a probabilistic approach based on forecasts that may not be true. The question of provision of more complete consideration of various internal and external factors and acceleration of decision making process and reaction to changing business environment arises before the organizations that concern more effective scheduling policy. International practice of solving such problems generally leads to qualitative discussion, whereas quantitative assessment of impact of control parameters of enterprise is not practically used, because there is no one systematic approach to manufacturing activity planning. On the basis of studying of international practices methodical guidelines of scenario approach to manufacturing activity planning with mathematical modeling of economics of producer price on electromechanical enterprises have been developed, which reasonably could be used with reference to and interaction with enterprise manufacturing program. The described approach allows solving planning problems iteratively in real-time mode concerning profit maximization, to form producer prices, to divide overhead costs according to the type of products and carry out cost accounting according to the type of a product, and it will provide functional interaction between factors and performance indicators.

Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

2018-09-01

To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byman H. Hamududu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

2014-05-01

In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Optimal primitive reference frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennings, David

2011-01-01

We consider the smallest possible directional reference frames allowed and determine the best one can ever do in preserving quantum information in various scenarios. We find that for the preservation of a single spin state, two orthogonal spins are optimal primitive reference frames; and in a product state, they do approximately 22% as well as an infinite-sized classical frame. By adding a small amount of entanglement to the reference frame, this can be raised to 2(2/3) 5 =26%. Under the different criterion of entanglement preservation, a very similar optimal reference frame is found; however, this time it is for spins aligned at an optimal angle of 87 deg. In this case 24% of the negativity is preserved. The classical limit is considered numerically, and indicates under the criterion of entanglement preservation, that 90 deg. is selected out nonmonotonically, with a peak optimal angle of 96.5 deg. for L=3 spins.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Care and pedagogical production: integration of Public Health System scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Túlio Batista Franco

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Throughout Brazilian Public Health System's (Centralized Health System - SUS construction history there has been a reasonable investment in the education for the sector. However, it has been frequently noticed by health professionals and managers the fact that this investment in educational programs has not converted into change of healthcare practices. Assuming that education can be used as a tool for changes in health, the text suggests that the pedagogical practices should be directed towards the production of individuals implied with the care production. Hence it proposes to work on a field of subjectivity in addition to cognition. This work reveals the management of the Brazilian public health system and its flows of permanent education, focusing "micromanagement" to think about the context on which they structuralize the diverse scenarios of care production, treating them as Pedagogical Production Units where it would be possible to develop entailed educational methodologies to a general idea of permanent education in health.

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

Reference costs of the electric power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-06-01

This study periodically realized by the DGEMP aims to compare the competitiveness of the different channels of electric power production, for different utilization conditions. The first part ''reference costs of the 2003 electric power production'' examines the prices of the electric power produced by different channels in particular in the framework of the industrial implementing in 2015. The nuclear and thermal power plants are concerned. The second part is devoted to the decentralized production channels (wind energy, photovoltaic, cogeneration heat-electricity) is under construction and will be presented next year. (A.L.B.)

Multi-board concept - a scenario based approach for supporting product quality and life cycle oriented design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Robotham, Antony John; Hertzum, Morten

2000-01-01

This paper will describe the multi-board concept, which is a working approach for supporting life cycle oriented design and product quality. Aspects of this concept include construction of a common working environment where multiple display boards depict scenarios of the product life cycle...... to believe that the multi-board concept promises to be a useful means of communication amongst the design team. We be-lieve that it fosters a thorough understanding of life cycle events, which, in turn, inspires the design of innovative products of the highest quality......., creating a shared quality mindset amongst design-ers, and developing creativity and synthesis in product design. The appropriateness of scenarios for supporting life cycle oriented design will be ar-gued and preliminary results from early experi-mentation will be presented.Initial results lead us...

Scenarios for wind power in Brazil, Argentina and Chile; Cenarios para a energia eolio eletrica no Brasil, Argentina e Chile

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dedecca, Joao Gorestein; Nogueira, Larissa Goncalves; Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia], emails: jdedecca@fem.unicamp.br, larissa@fem.unicamp.br, januzzi@fem.unicamp.br; Gomes, Rodolfo Dourado [International Energy Initiative-Latin America (IEI-LA), Campinas, SP (Brazil)], email: rodolfo@iei-la.org

2010-07-01

The Chilean, Argentinean and Brazilian power matrixes presented in the last two decades a growth of the non-renewable energy sources share, especially fossil sources, mainly in installed capacity and in a lesser degree in energy production. Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council have elaborated a reference energy scenario together with a scenario analyzing the institution of ample measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Feed-in tariffs and auction or bidding mechanisms implemented in Brazil and Argentina and the renewable portfolio standard implemented in Chile allied with the wind industry state in these countries indicate that Chile and Argentina will fulfill the 2020 wind power installed capacity predicted in the reference scenarios, while Brazil will reach the energy revolution scenario prediction. Important energy policy changes are required if the Chile and Argentina energy revolution scenarios wind power installed capacity are to become a reality in 2020. (author)

Electricity price, energy production and emissions impact : evaluating proposed GHG emission reduction frameworks for the Alberta electricity industry : updated reference case and sensitivity results prepared for CASA EPT Greenhouse Gas Allocation Subgroup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This document presents the results of a study which quantified the potential impact of various greenhouse gas (GHG) policy scenarios on Alberta generators' energy production, airborne emissions and electricity wholesale market price. The study examined proactive policy frameworks compared to business as usual scenarios. A reference case scenario was included to represent the status quo environment where electricity demand continues on its current path. Five additional sensitivity cases were examined, of which 3 evaluated the impact of many key assumptions regarding progressive GHG reduction levels and costs related to meeting GHG requirements. The other two evaluated an all-coal future electricity supply both with and without GHG emission reduction costs. Environmental costs were also evaluated in terms of emissions of nitrous oxides, sulphurous oxides, mercury and particulate matter. The impact of generation retirement and renewable energy source development was also analyzed. Demand and supply forecasts for oil, natural gas, electric energy and energy sales were presented along with generation supply forecasts for the reference case scenario, coal generation and natural gas fired retirements. refs., tabs., figs

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

2010-07-01

Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Correlations between reaction product yields as a tool for probing heavy-ion reaction scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gawlikowicz, W.; Agnihotri, D. K.; Baldwin, S. A.; Schroeder, W. U.; Toke, J.; Charity, R. J.; Sarantites, D. G.; Sobotka, L. G.; Souza, R. T. de; Barczyk, T.; Grotowski, K.; Micek, S.; Planeta, R.; Sosin, Z.

2010-01-01

Experimental multidimensional joint distributions of neutrons and charged reaction products were analyzed for 136 Xe + 209 Bi reactions at E/A=28, 40, and 62 MeV and were found to exhibit several different types of prominent correlation patterns. Some of these correlations have a simple explanation in terms of the system excitation energy and pose little challenge to most statistical decay theories. However, several other types of correlation patterns are difficult to reconcile with some, but not other, possible reaction scenarios. In this respect, correlations between the average atomic numbers of intermediate-mass fragments, on the one hand, and light particle multiplicities, on the other, are notable. This kind of multiparticle correlation provides a useful tool for probing reaction scenarios, which is different from the traditional approach of interpreting inclusive yields of individual reaction products.

SysML Model of the Pick and Place Unit for Papyrus UML: Scenario Sc4b

OpenAIRE

Vogel-Heuser, Birgit; Folmer, Jens; Legat, Christoph

2014-01-01

The Pick and Place Unit (PPU) is a bench-scale lab demonstrator which is open to the research community to investigate a variety of different topics. To conduct research on the evolution of production automation systems, a variety of different manifestations of the PPU (referred to as scenarios) were developed. A documentation of the PPU and its scenarios is publicly available at www.ppu-demonstrator.org. In this zipped file, a SysML model consisting of state charts and block definition diagr...

Export of electric power through industrial products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azevedo, J.B.L. de; David, J.M.S.; Campos, J.M.; Perecmanis, J.; Carneiro, N.S.

1990-01-01

We forecast the electrical energy incorporated to the exports of products of the industrial sectors of steel, aluminium, ferro-alloys, chlorine and caustic soda, pulp and paper and petrochemistry, accordingly to scenarios for these sectors consistent with a macro economic reference scenario, for the period 1990/2000. We also compare the electrical energy exported through those industrial products with the forecasted industrial and total markets of electrical energy. (author)

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Analytical characterization of recombinant hCG and comparative studies with reference product.

Science.gov (United States)

Thennati, Rajamannar; Singh, Sanjay Kumar; Nage, Nitin; Patel, Yena; Bose, Sandip Kumar; Burade, Vinod; Ranbhor, Ranjit Sudhakar

2018-01-01

Regulatory agencies recommend a stepwise approach for demonstrating biosimilarity between a proposed biosimilar and reference biological product emphasizing for functional and structural characterization to trace if there is any difference which may impact safety and efficacy. We studied the comparative structural and biological attributes of recombinant human chorionic gonadotropin (rhCG), SB005, with reference product, Ovidrel ® and Ovitrelle ® . Recombiant hCG was approved in 2000 by the US Food and Drug Administration for the induction of final follicular maturation, early luteinization in infertile women as part of assisted reproductive technology program. It is also indicated for the induction of ovulation and pregnancy in ovulatory infertile patients whose cause of infertility is not due to ovarian failure. Primary structure was studied by intact mass analysis, peptide fingerprinting, peptide mass fingerprinting and sequence coverage analysis. Higher order structure was studied by circular dichroism, ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, and disulfide bridge analysis. Different isoforms of reference product and SB005 were identified using capillary isoelectric focusing and capillary zone electrophoresis. Glycosylation was studied by N-glycan mapping using LC-ESI-MS, point of glycosylation, released glycan analysis using ultra performance liquid chromatography and sialic acid analysis. Product related impurities such as oligomer content analysis and oxidized impurities were studied using size exclusion chromatography and reverse phase high performance liquid chromatography, respectively. Biological activity in term of potency of reference product and SB005 was studied by in vivo analysis. In this study we have compared analytical similarity of recombinant rhCG (SB005) produced at Sun Pharmaceuticals with the reference product with respect to its primary, higher order structure, isoforms, charge variants, glycosylation, sialyation

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

2015-01-01

When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered. In this......When Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to provide insights on how to pursue future food demand, it faces the challenge to describe scenarios of the future in which the environmental impacts occur. In the case of future crop production, the effects of climate change should be considered....... In this context, the objectives of this paper are two-fold: (i) to recommend an approach to deal with uncertainty in scenario analysis for LCA of crop production in a changed climate, when the goal of the study is to suggest strategies for adaptation of crop cultivation practices towards low environmental impacts...... climate, soil, water loss and production parameters. Secondly, the handling of these factors in the inventory modeling is discussed and finally implemented in the case study. Our approach follows a 3-step procedure consisting of: (1) definition of a baseline scenario at the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI...

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. Volume 3. PWR, subatmospheric containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denning, R.S.; Gieseke, J.A.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Jordan, H.; Curtis, L.A.; Kelly, R.F.; Kogan, V.; Schumacher, P.M.

1986-07-01

This report presents results of analyses of the enviromental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment design. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. the Surry plant has been used in this study as the reference plant for a subatmospheric design

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Working Reference Material Production Pla

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wong, Amy; Thronas, Denise; Marshall, Robert

1998-11-04

This Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Working Reference Material Production Plan was written for LLNL by the Los Alamos National Laboratory to address key elements of producing seven Pu-diatomaceous earth NDA Working Reference Materials (WRMS). These WRMS contain low burnup Pu ranging in mass from 0.1 grams to 68 grams. The composite Pu mass of the seven WRMS was designed to approximate the maximum TRU allowable loading of 200 grams Pu. This document serves two purposes: first, it defines all the operations required to meet the LLNL Statement of Work quality objectives, and second, it provides a record of the production and certification of the WRMS. Guidance provided in ASTM Standard Guide C1128-89 was used to ensure that this Plan addressed all the required elements for producing and certifying Working Reference Materials. The Production Plan was written to provide a general description of the processes, steps, files, quality control, and certification measures that were taken to produce the WRMS. The Plan identifies the files where detailed procedures, data, quality control, and certification documentation and forms are retained. The Production Plan is organized into three parts: a) an initial section describing the preparation and characterization of the Pu02 and diatomaceous earth materials, b) middle sections describing the loading, encapsulation, and measurement on the encapsulated WRMS, and c) final sections describing the calculations of the Pu, Am, and alpha activity for the WRMS and the uncertainties associated with these quantities.

Politics design of cleaner production in the electric sector for the energy scenarios of Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueroa P, Woody; Smith Q, Ricardo

2001-01-01

Cleaner production (PML) in Colombia has been implemented as an agreement of wills between the companies of different productive sectors and the Colombian environment ministry. In the electric sector, the agreement of PML has been implemented with successes and difficulties. A concern that exists today among the companies of the electric sector involved in the agreement is about its long-term viability. Supported in the planning tool of scenarios, an analysis of the possible futures of PML in the Colombian electric sector, using the energy scenarios for Colombia (UPME, 2000), is made. PML policies are designed that will allow to analyze its long-term implementation. This work seeks to contribute in the long-term analysis about the evolution and tendencies of PML in the Colombian electric sector, according with the markets dynamics, trends and competitiveness that are gaining space in the international community

Establishment of a maintenance plan based on quantitative analysis in the context of RCM in a JIT production scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alebrant Mendes, Angélica; Duarte Ribeiro, José Luis

2014-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for supporting the preparation or review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-in-time production scenario. The proposed method includes the following steps: (i) identifying the parts that influence reliability; (ii) surveying the failure rates and times to repair the parts; (iii) classification of parts according to the effect of their failures; (iv) surveying the line occupation parameters; (v) identifying the probability distributions for time to failure, time to repair, and line occupation; (vi) simulating the production and maintenance using the Monte Carlo approach; (vii) conducting a sensitivity analysis concerning variations in demand, MTTF, and MTTR; and (viii) establishing optimized intervals for preventive maintenance. The method is illustrated through an application in a labeling and filling gallons line at a paints and dyes production company. This method allowed the identification of critical parts as it relates to the productive scenario in question. The results can support companies in their decision making regarding the need and/or type of maintenance investment that would best fit an expected demand scenario

An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

Science.gov (United States)

Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

2014-05-01

In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2018-04-01

An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

Emission Scenario Document for Biocides Emission scenarios for all 23 product types of the Biocidal Products Directive (EU Directive 98/8/EC)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Poel P van der; Bakker J; CSR

2002-01-01

Dit rapport geeft een overzicht van de beschikbare emissiescenario's voor niet-landbouwbestrijdingsmiddelen voor alle 23 productgroepen uit de biocide richtlijn (EU Richtlijn 98/8/EC). Het betreft scenario's die reeds in USES 3.0 zijn opgenomen, alsmede scenario's die

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Bottalico, Francesca; Pesola, Lucia; Vizzarri, Matteo; Antonello, Leonardo; Barbati, Anna; Chirici, Gherardo; Corona, Piermaria; Cullotta, Sebastiano; Garfì, Vittorio; Giannico, Vincenzo; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lombardi, Fabio; Marchetti, Marco; Nocentini, Susanna; Riccioli, Francesco; Travaglini, Davide; Sallustio, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest

Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

Science.gov (United States)

Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

2014-11-21

The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

2015-09-01

This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-07-01

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Lunt

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

Science.gov (United States)

Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

2012-03-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Inferring product healthfulness from nutrition labelling. The influence of reference points.

Science.gov (United States)

van Herpen, Erica; Hieke, Sophie; van Trijp, Hans C M

2014-01-01

Despite considerable research on nutrition labelling, it has proven difficult to find a front-of-pack label which is informative about product healthfulness across various situations. This study examines the ability of different types of nutrition labelling schemes (multiple traffic light label, nutrition table, GDA, logo) to communicate product healthfulness (a) across different product categories, (b) between options from the same product category, and (c) when viewed in isolation and in comparison with another product. Results of two experiments in Germany and The Netherlands show that a labelling scheme with reference point information at the nutrient level (e.g., the traffic light label) can achieve all three objectives. Although other types of labelling schemes are also capable of communicating healthfulness, labelling schemes lacking reference point information (e.g., nutrition tables) are less effective when no comparison product is available, and labelling schemes based on overall product healthfulness within the category (e.g., logos) can diminish consumers' ability to differentiate between categories, leading to a potential misinterpretation of product healthfulness. None of the labels affected food preferences.

Analyses on the Changes of Grazing Capacity in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongrong Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available On the livestock production in the Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR in the macrocontext of climatic change, this study analyzed the possible changing trends of the net primary productivity (NPP of local grasslands under four RCPs scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 during 2010–2030 with the model estimation, and the grass yield and theoretical grazing capacity under each scenario were further qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that the grassland productivity in the TRHR will be unstable under all the four scenarios. The grassland productivity will be greatly influenced by the fluctuations of precipitation and the temperature fluctuations will also play an important role during some periods. The local grassland productivity will decrease to some degree during 2010–2020 and then will fluctuate and increase slowly during 2020–2030.The theoretical grazing capacity was analyzed in this study and calculated on the basis of the grass yield. The result indicates that the theoretical grazing capacity ranges from 4 million sheep to 5 million sheep under the four scenarios and it can provide quantitative information reference for decision making on how to determine the reasonable grazing capacity, promote the sustainable development of grasslands, and so forth.

Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-02-01

Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

Analytical characterization of recombinant hCG and comparative studies with reference product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thennati R

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Rajamannar Thennati,1 Sanjay Kumar Singh,1 Nitin Nage,1 Yena Patel,1 Sandip Kumar Bose,1 Vinod Burade,2 Ranjit Sudhakar Ranbhor1 1Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, 2Sun Pharmaceutical Advanced Research Center, Vadodara, Gujarat, India Introduction: Regulatory agencies recommend a stepwise approach for demonstrating biosimilarity between a proposed biosimilar and reference biological product emphasizing for functional and structural characterization to trace if there is any difference which may impact safety and efficacy. We studied the comparative structural and biological attributes of recombinant human chorionic gonadotropin (rhCG, SB005, with reference product, Ovidrel® and Ovitrelle®. Recombiant hCG was approved in 2000 by the US Food and Drug Administration for the induction of final follicular maturation, early luteinization in infertile women as part of assisted reproductive technology program. It is also indicated for the induction of ovulation and pregnancy in ovulatory infertile patients whose cause of infertility is not due to ovarian failure. Materials and methods: Primary structure was studied by intact mass analysis, peptide fingerprinting, peptide mass fingerprinting and sequence coverage analysis. Higher order structure was studied by circular dichroism, ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, and disulfide bridge analysis. Different isoforms of reference product and SB005 were identified using capillary isoelectric focusing and capillary zone electrophoresis. Glycosylation was studied by N-glycan mapping using LC-ESI-MS, point of glycosylation, released glycan analysis using ultra performance liquid chromatography and sialic acid analysis. Product related impurities such as oligomer content analysis and oxidized impurities were studied using size exclusion chromatography and reverse phase high performance liquid chromatography, respectively. Biological activity in term of potency of reference product

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

2008-01-01

Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-12-01

A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

Science.gov (United States)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

2013-12-01

commerce. To demonstrate the usefulness of the framework, we construct several scenarios as case studies to explore the emerging trends of larger ship deployment and the changing portfolio of energy resources including the increased consumption of bio-based energy. The maritime transportation industry remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels to power transport, while energy, mineral and grain remain the largest bulk commodities shipped. Emerging markets for such commodities, as well as new production methods and locations are considered. We overlay these trends and shifts with ecological areas of concern and biological migration routes. The diversity of governance regimes is also considered to produce a clearer picture of the emerging hot-spots for further study and for the synergies and tradeoffs that must be considered to achieve a sustainable ocean system. References Turner BL, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci, (104):20666-20671. UN Trade and Development Board (2013) Recent developments and trends in international maritime transport affecting trade of developing countries, TD/B/C.1/30.

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

2013-06-15

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

Life Cycle Analysis of the Production of FT-Fuels. 4 Different Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blinge, M. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Rehnlund, B. [Atrax Energi AB (Sweden); Larsen, U.; Lundorf, P.; Ivarsson, A.; Schramm, J. [Technical University of Denmark (Denmark)

2006-11-15

This paper deals with aspects concerning the life cycle aspects regarding Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. Four different scenarios are being analysed based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) figures. The results etc presented below emanates from a project undertaken by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Implementing Agreement on Advanced Motor Fuels (IEA/AMF). The project has been carried out as an IEA/AMF annex, number XXXI, with financial support from the USA, Finland and Denmark. Some important results from the scenario studies based on the evaluated LCA data are: Production and use of GTL fuel has the potential of contributing about the same or slightly less greenhouse gas to the atmosphere than production and use of conventional diesel; Production and use of CTL emits more than twice as much greenhouse gases compared to traditional fuels; Production and use of BTL reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases by 60-90 %; To substitute 15 % of the EU 15 countries fuel consumption would an area of 310 000 km2 be cultivated with Salix. This corresponds to an area of the size of Poland. It would also require 122 FTplants of 1,6 GW; Theoretically, it is possible supply the worlds need for energy with biomass. However, planning the production, the localization of plants, building the infrastructure, this will take time and requires heavy long-term investments; The demand for Natural gas is increasing and there is no way for the US to meet an increased demand from supplying the vehicle fleet with F-T fuels from domestic reserves. With the political situation in the Middle East and in Venezuela, it doesn't seem likely that this solution will ease the US problems with reducing their oil dependences. The IEA/AMF project has also included emission tests on road vehicles fuelled by FT-Gasoline. These tests have been performed by The Technical University of Denmark and will be presented in another presentation at the ISAF XVI, 'Emissions from Road Vehicles Fuelled

Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghysel, F.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin fractions (Ogier et al., 1999 that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007. However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008. This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007 that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and

EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

2015-12-01

Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

2010-06-01

A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

Scenario based product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tideman, M.

2008-01-01

Creating good products is not an easy thing to do. There are usually many different people who have an interest in the product. People such as the user, of course, but also marketing managers, production engineers, maintenance workers, recycling specialists, and government representatives, just to

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Comparative LCA of Alternative Scenarios for Waste Treatment: The Case of Food Waste Production by the Mass-Retail Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Mondello

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Food waste is one of the most important issues taken into account by the European Union due to its negative environmental, economic and social impacts. The treatment of food waste through recycling processes represents a solution for food waste minimisation. Concerning, in particular, the retail sector, it is necessary to define strategies for retail-oriented sustainable food waste management. The aim of this study is to compare the potential environmental impacts related to five scenarios (landfill, incineration, composting, anaerobic digestion and bioconversion through insects for the disposal/treatment of food waste produced by a mass retail company operating in Messina (Italy through the application of the Life Cycle Assessment method, in order to find the best treatment solution. Results based on the treatment of a functional unit of 1 tonne of food waste show that the bioconversion scenario represents the most preferable solution considering all of the impact categories analysed through the CML 2 baseline 2000 method, except for Global Warming, for which higher environmental performances are connected to the anaerobic digestion scenario. The incineration and the bioconversion scenarios show the highest environmental benefits when the production of alternative energy sources and valuable materials is evaluated through the inclusion of the avoided productions in the analysis.

Finding the Optimum Scenario in Risk-benefit Assessment: An Example on Vitamin D

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berjia, Firew Lemma; Hoekstra, J.; Verhagen, H.

2014-01-01

when changing from the reference to the optimum scenario. Conclusion: The method allowed us to find the optimum serum level in the vitamin D example. Additional case studies are needed to further validate the applicability of the approach to other nutrients or foods, especially with regards...... a method for finding the optimum scenario that provides maximum net health gains. Methods: A multiple scenario simulation. The method is presented using vitamin D intake in Denmark as an example. In addition to the reference scenario, several alternative scenarios are simulated to detect the scenario...... that provides maximum net health gains. As a common health metric, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) has been used to project the net health effect by using the QALIBRA (Quality of Life for Benefit Risk Assessment) software. Results: The method used in the vitamin D example shows that it is feasible to find...

Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

2014-01-01

Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ertug Ercin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. PWR, ice condenser design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denning, R S; Gieseke, J A; Cybulskis, P; Lee, K W; Jordan, H; Curtis, L A; Kelly, R F; Kogan, V; Schumacher, P M

1986-07-01

This report presents results of analyses of the environmental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with an ice-condenser containment. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. The Sequoyah Plant has been used in this study as an example of a PWR ice-condenser plant. (author)

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

2013-01-01

In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

Economical comparison of imported energy sources in terms of long-term production planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gungor, Z.

1999-01-01

In this paper, the Turkish energy production sector is studied and power plants fueled by natural gas, imported coal and nuclear power are compared in terms of long-term (1996-2010) production economy. A net present value is used for comparing nuclear, coal and natural gas power plants. A scenario approach is utilized in establishing the effects of different factors, such as inflation rate, unit of investment costs, load factor change, discount rate and fuel price changes. Six different scenarios of interest are developed and discussed. The study ends with conclusions and recommendations based on a study of a reference scenario and alternative scenarios. (author)

Charging of mobile services by mobile payment reference model

OpenAIRE

Pousttchi, Key; Wiedemann, Dietmar Georg

2005-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to analyze mobile payments in the mobile commerce scenario. Therefore, we first classify the mobile payment in the mobile commerce scenario by explaining general offer models, charging concepts, and intermediaries. Second, we describe the mobile payment reference model, especially, the mobile payment reference organization model and different mobile payment standard types. Finally, we conclude our findings.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartolini, Fabio; Viaggi, Davide

2012-01-01

The agriculture sector’s contribution to energy production is a central issue in ongoing policy debates, and one of the central elements of the development of Bioeconomy sector. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is one of the main determinants of the different farm strategies of European farmers. The CAP is now undergoing a thorough revision process which necessarily includes a debate of the role of the policy in rural areas and the effectiveness of the various CAP policy mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of alternative CAP scenarios in the light of the possible changes in 2013 and the willingness to adopt energy plants for energy crops in the Province of Bologna (Italy). This is pursued using both survey information and farm-household mathematical programming models, hence using stated intentions and simulated profitability to analyse the adopt of new technologies for energy production. The results underscore the relevance of the CAP scenarios in altering intentions with regard to the adoption of energy production and the relevant effect of uncertainty in delaying the diffusion of energy production systems. - Highlights: ► We analyse policy effects on adoption of energy production by the farms. ► CAP scenario strongly affects the intention to adopt energy productions. ► Uncertainty in decision variables have the effect to postpone the decision on energy productions.

Towards a reference model for portfolio management for product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsson, Flemming

2006-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of portfolio management for product development at company level. Departing from a combination of explorative interviews with industry professionals and a literature review a proposal for a reference model for portfolio management is developed....... The model consists of a set of defined and interrelated concepts which forms a coherent and consistent reference model that explicate the totality of the portfolio management concept at company level in terms of structure, processes and elements. The model simultaneously pinpoints, positions and integrates...... several central dimensions of portfolio management....

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

Update of the HL-LHC operational scenarios for proton operation

CERN Document Server

Metral, Elias; Antoniou, Fanouria; Appleby, Robert Barrie; Arduini, Gianluigi; Barranco Garcia, Javier; Baudrenghien, Philippe; Biancacci, Nicolo; Bracco, Chiara; Bruce, Roderik; Buffat, Xavier; Calaga, Rama; Carver, Lee Robert; Chapochnikova, Elena; Crouch, Matthew Paul; De Maria, Riccardo; Fartoukh, Stephane; Gamba, Davide; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Goncalves Jorge, Patrik; Hofle, Wolfgang; Iadarola, Giovanni; Karastathis, Nikos; Lasheen, Alexandre; Mastoridis, Themistoklis; Medina Medrano, Luis Eduardo; Mereghetti, Alessio; Mirarchi, Daniele; Muratori, Bruno; Papadopoulou, Parthena Stefania; Papaphilippou, Yannis; Pellegrini, Dario; Pieloni, Tatiana; Redaelli, Stefano; Rumolo, Giovanni; Salvant, Benoit; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tambasco, Claudia; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio; Valuch, Daniel; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

2018-01-01

The main aim of this document is to have a clearly identified set of beam and machine parameters to be used for numerical simulations and performance assessment. Two scenarios (referring only to the operation at the nominal beam energy of 7 TeV) are discussed: i) Nominal scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 5E34 cm-2s-1) ii) Ultimate scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 7.5E34 cm-2s-1)

Reference amounts utilised in front of package nutrition labelling; impact on product healthfulness evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Raats, M M; Hieke, S; Jola, C; Hodgkins, C; Kennedy, J; Wills, J

2015-05-01

The research question addressed in this paper is how different reference amounts utilised in front of package nutrition labelling influence evaluation of product healthfulness. A total of 13,117 participants from six European countries (Germany, UK, Spain, France, Poland and Sweden) were recruited via online panels. A mixed between/within-subject factorial design was employed with food (biscuits, sandwiches, yogurts), healthfulness and presence of Guideline Daily Amounts as within-subjects factors and reference amount ('per 100 g', 'typical portion', 'half portion') and country as between-subjects factors. Overall, people correctly ranked foods according to their objective healthfulness as defined by risk nutrients alone, and could distinguish between more and less healthful variants of foods. General healthfulness associations with the three product categories do not appear to have had a strong influence on product ratings. This study shows that where the reference amount of 'per 100 g' is very different from the 'typical' portion size, as was the case for biscuits, products with a 'per 100 g' label are rated significantly less healthful than the 'typical' or 'half typical' portions. The results indicate that across the three food categories, consumers do factor the reference amount, that is, the quantity of food for which the nutritional information is being presented, into their judgements of healthfulness. Therefore, appropriate reference amounts are also of importance for the effective presentation of nutritional information.

Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

The European Union, regionalism, and world order: five scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Telò

2011-06-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the changing interplay between regional and global governance, with reference to five possible scenarios in the future shift of the international system. A ‘new multilateralism’ represents the only possible global framework consistent with an expanding and pluridimensional regional governance system. Furthermore, the weaknesses and contradictions of the alternative scenarios make a multilayered, more robust and legitimate multilateral governance more realistic.

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steward, Darlene [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Webster, Karen W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.

Pricing Strategy and the Formation and Evolution of Reference Price Perceptions in New Product Categories

OpenAIRE

Lowe, Ben; Alpert, Frank

2010-01-01

This study examines the formation and evolution of reference price perceptions in new product categories. It contributes to our understanding of pricing new products by integrating two important research streams in marketing-reference price theory and the theory of pioneer brand advantage. Prior research has focused solely on products in existing or incrementally new categories, and has typically examined fast-moving consumer goods. Using a cross-sectional experiment to study the formation of...

Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

2002-03-01

respect to choices of either transporting fuel (i.e., road, rail, ship) or electricity (wire). Results from CRETM are expressed in terms of scenario- based 'visions of the future'. The scenarios considered in this ESS component of the CETP study are reference to this base line and divide according to whether the driving attributes derive from economic policy (e.g., demand growth, discount rate), environmental policy (e.g., emission taxes versus emission caps, reflecting roughly a free-market versus centrally planned economy), or technological policy (e.g., pricing and introduction rates that may favour specific technologies like Clean Coal Technologies (CCT) versus nuclear energy, versus renewable energy). The primary aim of this report is to describe in detail the analytic and databases of the CRETM and to present a series of scenario-based example results that illustrate a range of possible futures related to electricity generation in China in general and in Shandong Province specifically, over the next three decades. A detailed description of the CRETM and the supporting database is given; eight 'strawman', broad-coverage scenarios are described and evaluated; interpretations of both countrywide and Shandong focused results are provided; and future work needed to assure an optimally integrated and policy-utilitarian product are prescribed. (author)

Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roedel, J.G.

2008-01-01

The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

The use of sports references in marketing of food and beverage products in supermarkets.

Science.gov (United States)

Bragg, Marie A; Liu, Peggy J; Roberto, Christina A; Sarda, Vishnu; Harris, Jennifer L; Brownell, Kelly D

2013-04-01

Food marketing has been identified as a significant driver of the childhood obesity epidemic. The purpose of the present study was to (i) conduct a content analysis of the types of sports references that appear on supermarket food and beverage products and (ii) assess each product's nutritional and marketing profile. This was a descriptive study. Every product featuring sports references on the packaging was purchased in two major supermarkets during 2010. A content analysis was conducted and nutritional evaluations were made based on the Nutrient Profile Model, a validated nutrition model. Marketing data were obtained from The Nielsen Company. Two major supermarkets in Connecticut, USA. Food and beverage products (n 102) were selected from two supermarkets. The 102 products (fifty-three foods and forty-nine beverages) had sports references as part of their packaging: 72·5 % featured a character exercising, 42·2 % were endorsed by a professional sports entity and 34·0 % were child-targeted. The median nutrition score for food products was 36 (1 = unhealthiest and 100 = healthiest; scores of ≥63 are considered healthy according to this model). More than two-thirds of beverages (69·4 %) were 100 % sugar-sweetened. Children saw significantly more commercials for these products than adults. Companies place sports figures on food and beverage products that are child-targeted and unhealthy.

No-reference image quality assessment for horizontal-path imaging scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rios, Carlos; Gladysz, Szymon

2013-05-01

There exist several image-enhancement algorithms and tasks associated with imaging through turbulence that depend on defining the quality of an image. Examples include: "lucky imaging", choosing the width of the inverse filter for image reconstruction, or stopping iterative deconvolution. We collected a number of image quality metrics found in the literature. Particularly interesting are the blind, "no-reference" metrics. We discuss ways of evaluating the usefulness of these metrics, even when a fully objective comparison is impossible because of the lack of a reference image. Metrics are tested on simulated and real data. Field data comes from experiments performed by the NATO SET 165 research group over a 7 km distance in Dayton, Ohio.

The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Soederbergh, Bengt

2010-01-01

The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the 'policy makers, investors and end users' to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

Stored object knowledge and the production of referring expressions: The case of color typicality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans eWesterbeek

2015-07-01

Full Text Available When speakers describe objects with atypical properties, do they include these properties in their referring expressions, even when that is not strictly required for unique referent identification? Based on previous work, we predict that speakers mention the color of a target object more often when the object is atypically colored, compared to when it is typical. Taking literature from object recognition and visual attention into account, we further hypothesize that this behavior is proportional to the degree to which a color is atypical, and whether color is a highly diagnostic feature in the referred-to object's identity. We investigate these expectations in two language production experiments, in which participants referred to target objects in visual contexts. In Experiment 1, we find a strong effect of color typicality: less typical colors for target objects predict higher proportions of referring expressions that include color. In Experiment 2 we manipulated objects with more complex shapes, for which color is less diagnostic, and we find that the color typicality effect is moderated by color diagnosticity: it is strongest for high-color-diagnostic objects (i.e., objects with a simple shape. These results suggest that the production of atypical color attributes results from a contrast with stored knowledge, an effect which is stronger when color is more central to object identification. Our findings offer evidence for models of reference production that incorporate general object knowledge, in order to be able to capture these effects of typicality on determining the content of referring expressions.

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

2013-01-01

The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

SIMULATION MODEL OF THE PRODUCTIVITY OF A HERD OF GOATS GRAZING UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF HANDLING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Villanueva-Castillo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available One of the major current challenges in the livestock industry is meeting the demand for livestock products of a growing world population. Bio-economic models integrate animal biology and rural enterprise management, which allows for the study of complex animal production systems. This paper aims at simulating the productive performance of a herd grazing under different management conditions. To do so, a simple simulation model of a goat herd (MSSRC, rangeland forage growth, and the dynamics of animal population in the semi-arid region of Southwestern Tamaulipas under three rainfall scenarios (300, 500, and 700 mm. of average annual precipitation was built. The objective was to evaluate the sustainability of extensive grazing under different animal loads. Nine different scenarios were evaluated, corresponding to the different combinations of the three rainfall scenarios and three levels of initial loads (Hi and nannies maximum load (HMAX. Evaluated variables are: kids sales (C; total number of nannies (female goats, HT; sales of replacement nannies (VREE; sales of scrap goats (CDS; rangeland condition (CA; voluntary consumption (CV; mortality rate (M; abortion rate (A;  and average annual profits (UPA. Simulation was performed on a 1,000 hectares plot, and three 10-year periods were used as time framework. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA revealed statistically significant (P < 0.05 differences between scenarios for all studied variables. Biomass primary net production under the 300, 500, and 700 mm of rainfall was found to be 1,132.2 ± 362.9, 2,244.2 ± 517.0, and 3,113.3 ± 598.7 kg DM ha-1 per year, and the average annual production of kids was 36 ± 17, 90 ± 31, and 132 ±37, respectively. The low loads scenarios showed a stable behavior, with a constant rate of kids production over the three simulation periods (0-30 years, which resulted in a higher average annual profit, and a more sustainable profile than those with heavier

Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

2018-02-01

The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Viewls - Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenarios. Final report of WP3 of the VIEWLS project, funded by DG-Tren

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dam, J. van; Faaij, A.; Lewandowski, I. (and others)

2006-01-15

The EU has set ambitious targets to increase the use of Renewable Energy Sources from which a large part has to come from biomass To meet these targets, a large amount of biomass resources is needed which requires large areas of land in the EU. This article discusses a methodology and results for a regional biomass potential assessment in Central and Eastern European Accession countries (CEEC). The biomass potential assessment is implemented for a defined set of scenarios. The scenarios are based on the main drivers in Europe relevant for agriculture and land use change, i.e. World Trade Negotiations or Common Agricultural Policy. The methodology for the biomass potential assessment is based on land use changes over time. A certain amount of land is needed to meet the required production for food (derived from agricultural crops and livestock) and wood products. The surplus available land can possibly be used for biomass production. Results of the biomass potential assessment are available on a Nuts-3 region level in the CEEC for different scenarios. As the concept of large-scale biomass production is only feasible when production is profitable for the stakeholders involved, price and cost-relations are included in the assessment. Final deliverable are cost-supply curves from different sources (energy crops, residues) and scenarios for the CEEC. (au)

Reference neutron radiations. Part 1: Characteristics and methods of production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

ISO 8529 consists of the following parts, under the general title Reference neutron radiations: Part 1: Characteristics and methods of production; Part 2: Calibration fundamentals of radiation protection devices related to the basic quantities characterizing the radiation field; Part 3: Calibration of area and personal dosimeters and determination of response as a function of energy and angle of incidence. This Part 1. of ISO 8529 specifies the reference neutron radiations, in the energy range from thermal up to 20 MeV, for calibrating neutron-measuring devices used for radiation protection purposes and for determining their response as a function of neutron energy. Reference radiations are given for neutron fluence rates of up to 1x10 9 m 2 s-1 , corresponding, at a neutron energy of 1 MeV, to dose-equivalent rates of up to 100 mSv h -1 . This part of ISO 8529 is concerned only with the methods of producing and characterizing the neutron reference radiations. The procedures for applying these radiations for calibrations are described in ISO 8529-2 and ISO 8529-3. The reference radiations specified are the following: neutrons from radionuclide sources, including neutrons from sources in a moderator; neutrons produced by nuclear reactions with charged particles from accelerators; neutrons from reactors. In view of the methods of production and use of them, these reference radiations are divided, for the purposes of this part of ISO 8529, into the following two separate sections. In clause 4, radionuclide neutron sources with wide spectra are specified for the calibration of neutron measuring devices. These sources should be used by laboratories engaged in the routine calibration of neutron-measuring devices, the particular design of which has already been type tested. In clause 5, accelerator-produced monoenergetic neutrons and reactor-produced neutrons with wide or quasi monoenergetic spectra are specified for determining the response of neutron-measuring devices

Stream invertebrate productivity linked to forest subsidies: 37 stream-years of reference and experimental data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, J Bruce; Eggert, Susan L; Meyer, Judy L; Webster, Jackson R

2015-05-01

Riparian habitats provide detrital subsidies of varying quantities and qualities to recipient ecosystems. We used long-term data from three reference streams (covering 24 stream-years) and 13-year whole-stream organic matter manipulations to investigate the influence of terrestrial detrital quantity and quality on benthic invertebrate community structure, abundance, biomass, and secondary production in rockface (RF) and mixed substrates (MS) of forested headwater streams. Using a mesh canopy covering the entire treatment stream, we examined effects of litter ex'clusion, small- and large-wood removal, and addition of artificial wood (PVC) and leaves of varying quality on organic matter standing crops and invertebrate community structure and function. We assessed differences in functional feeding group distribution between substrate types as influenced by organic matter manipulations and long-term patterns of predator and prey production in manipulated vs. reference years. Particulate organic matter standing crops in MS of the treatment stream declined drastically with each successive year of litter exclusion, approaching zero after three years. Monthly invertebrate biomass and annual secondary production was positively related to benthic organic matter in the MS habitats. Rockface habitats exhibited fewer changes than MS habitats across all organic matter manipulations. With leaf addition, the patterns of functional group distribution among MS and RF habitats returned to patterns seen in reference streams. Secondary production per unit organic matter standing crop was greatest for the leaf addition period, followed by the reference streams, and significantly less for the litter exclusion and wood removal periods. These data indicate that the limited organic matter remaining in the stream following litter exclusion and wood removal was more refractory than that in the reference streams, whereas the added leaf material was more labile and readily converted into

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1999-09-01

selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.

Higgs particle production at LEP in multi-doublet scenarios with hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinowski, J.; Pokorski, S.

1989-01-01

We discuss the production at LEP of Higgs particles in multi-doublet scenarios with a hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values ν 2 /ν 1 ≅m t /m b . The cross sections are similar or larger than for the standard Higgs boson of the same mass but the signature is different. Events with four b-jets are the only important signature of such Higgs particles. (orig.)

Production of candidate natural matrix reference materials for micro-analytical techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeisler, R.; Fajgelj, A.; Zeiller, E.

2002-01-01

Homogeneity is considered to be the most vital prerequisite for a certified reference material (CRM); more stringent requirements exist for the analysis of small subsamples. Many of the natural matrix CRMs are prepared from bulk samples by grinding and milling them to a certain particle size, which is expected to provide a more homogenous material; however recommended sample sizes for biological and environmental reference materials are found to be more than 100 mg. Since the milling of materials is costly and has some drawbacks, natural materials that already occur as small particles such as air particulate matter, certain sediments, and cellular biological materials may form the basis of the required reference materials. The nature of these materials, i.e. naturally occurring particles, may provide ideal model reference material. We describe here the production of the materials and preliminary tests, the evaluation for the micro-analytical techniques

Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kermeli, Katerina; Graus, Wina H J; Worrell, Ernst

2014-01-01

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes

Economic and Ecological Consequences of Four European Land Use Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eickhout, B.; Meijl, van H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Rheenen, van T.

2007-01-01

The impact of globalization on trade, production and land use is key to the Doha development round. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade, production, land-use change and environmental consequences on the basis of four different scenarios. In these scenarios, major

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRODUCTION OF PLASTICS - A COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION FROM CRUDE OIL AND RECYCLING FOR THE DUTCH CASE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rem, Peter C.; Olsen, Stig Irving; Welink, Jan-Henk

2009-01-01

recycling to the production of plastics from crude oil as a reference. The first scenario deals with packaging waste from selective collection, in which data from the current practice of the German DSD system were translated for the Dutch situation. In the second scenario, plastic packaging recovered from...... household waste using mechanical separation techniques is considered. It is assumed in the second scenario that the plastics are separated from the rest of the household waste and processed further to a compound close to the site at which the rest of the waste is disposed of, e.g. at an incinerator plant...

Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Searches for electroweak Higgsino production in compressed scenarios with ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Swiatlowski, Maximilian; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

Light Higgsinos are a common feature of natural models of Supersymmetry. Cases where the other SUSY particles are heavy, or where the lightest SUSY particles are mostly Higgsino, naturally lead to compressed mass spectra. Searches sensitive to these scenarios involve difficult detector signatures, including low-momentum leptons and disappearing tracks. This talk reviews recent results from searches in the Run 2 data with the ATLAS detector that constrain these scenarios, which provide the first constraints on light Higgsinos since LEP.

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyun Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Public synthesis of the reference costs study of the electric power production; Synthese publique de l'etude des couts de reference de la production electrique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

Every 3 or 5 years, the DGEC published the reference costs study of the electric power production which evaluates, in a theoretical framework, the total cost of an electrical MWh, from different production ways. These studies bring information for the definition of the energy policy and the elaboration of the investments program. because of the great competition of the market, it was decided not to publish the absolute value of the hypothesis and the results but under indexed form. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

2015-01-01

Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

CONSTRAINING JET PRODUCTION SCENARIOS BY STUDIES OF NARROW-LINE RADIO GALAXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sikora, Marek [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Stasinska, Grazyna [LUTH, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Universite Paris Diderot, Place Jules Janssen, F-92190 Meudon (France); Koziel-Wierzbowska, Dorota [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244 Krakow (Poland); Madejski, Greg M. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Asari, Natalia V., E-mail: sikora@camk.edu.pl [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

2013-03-01

We study a large sample of narrow-line radio galaxies (NLRGs) with extended radio structures. Using 1.4 GHz radio luminosities L {sub 1.4}, narrow optical emission line luminosities L {sub [OIII]} and L{sub H{sub {alpha}}}, as well as black hole masses M {sub BH} derived from stellar velocity dispersions measured from the optical spectra obtained with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we find that (1) NLRGs cover about four decades of the Eddington ratio, {lambda} {identical_to} L {sub bol}/L {sub Edd}{proportional_to}L {sub line}/M {sub BH}; (2) L {sub 1.4}/M {sub BH} strongly correlates with {lambda}; and (3) radio loudness, R{identical_to}L{sub 1.4}/L{sub line}, strongly anti-correlates with {lambda}. A very broad range of the Eddington ratio indicates that the parent population of NLRGs includes both radio-loud quasars (RLQs) and broad-line radio galaxies (BLRGs). The correlations they obey and their high jet production efficiencies favor a jet production model which involves the so-called magnetically choked accretion scenario. In this model, production of the jet is dominated by the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, and the magnetic fields in the vicinity of the central black hole are confined by the ram pressure of the accretion flow. Since large net magnetic flux accumulated in central regions of the accretion flow required by the model can take place only via geometrically thick accretion, we speculate that the massive, 'cold' accretion events associated with luminous emission-line active galactic nucleus can be accompanied by an efficient jet production only if preceded by a hot, very sub-Eddington accretion phase.

Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

2010-07-01

Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

2017-12-31

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dril, A.W.N.; Elzenga, H.E.

2005-10-01

The Reference Projection 2005-2020 covers the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. Two scenarios have been used. The Strong Europe (SE) scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth and strong public responsibility. The Global Economy (GE) scenario assumes high economic growth and has a strong orientation towards private responsibility. Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction ef-forts abroad. Acidifying emissions of NOx and SO2 stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of particulate matter (PM10) will stabilise at present levels

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.N

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Optimized Flow Sheet for a Reference Commercial-Scale Nuclear-Driven High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M. G. McKellar; J. E. O'Brien; E. A. Harvego; J. S. Herring

2007-01-01

This report presents results from the development and optimization of a reference commercial scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production. The reference plant design is driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle. The reference design reactor power is 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 540 C and 900 C, respectively. The electrolysis unit used to produce hydrogen consists of 4.176 - 10 6 cells with a per-cell active area of 225 cm2. A nominal cell area-specific resistance, ASR, value of 0.4 Ohm-cm2 with a current density of 0.25 A/cm2 was used, and isothermal boundary conditions were assumed. The optimized design for the reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes an air-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode side of the electrolyzer. The inlet air for the air-sweep system is compressed to the system operating pressure of 5.0 MPa in a four-stage compressor with intercooling. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the low heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 49.07% at a hydrogen production rate of 2.45 kg/s with the high-temperature helium-cooled reactor concept. The information presented in this report is intended to establish an optimized design for the reference nuclear-driven HTE hydrogen production plant so that parameters can be compared with other hydrogen production methods and power cycles to evaluate relative performance characteristics and plant economics

Impact of a product-specific reference standard for the measurement of a PEGylated rFVIII activity: the Swiss Multicentre Field Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bulla, O; Poncet, A; Alberio, L; Asmis, L M; Gähler, A; Graf, L; Nagler, M; Studt, J-D; Tsakiris, D A; Fontana, P

2017-07-01

Measuring factor VIII (FVIII) activity can be challenging when it has been modified, such as when FVIII is pegylated to increase its circulating half-life. Use of a product-specific reference standard may help avoid this issue. Evaluate the impact of using a product-specific reference standard for measuring the FVIII activity of BAX 855 - a pegylated FVIII - in eight of Switzerland's main laboratories. Factor VIII-deficient plasma, spiked with five different concentrations of BAX 855, plus a control FVIII sample, was sent to the participating laboratories. They measured FVIII activity by using either with a one-stage (OSA) or the chromogenic assay (CA) against their local or a product-specific reference standard. When using a local reference standard, there was an overestimation of BAX 855 activity compared to the target concentrations, both with the OSA and CA. The use of a product-specific reference standard reduced this effect: mean recovery ranged from 127.7% to 213.5% using the OSA with local reference standards, compared to 110% to 183.8% with a product-specific reference standard, and from 146.3% to 182.4% using the CA with local reference standards compared to 72.7% to 103.7% with a product-specific reference standard. In this in vitro study, the type of reference standard had a major impact on the measurement of BAX 855 activity. Evaluation was more accurate and precise when using a product-specific reference standard. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Generic Crystalline Disposal Reference Case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Painter, Scott Leroy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Chu, Shaoping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Harp, Dylan Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Perry, Frank Vinton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wang, Yifeng [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-02-20

A generic reference case for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rock is outlined. The generic cases are intended to support development of disposal system modeling capability by establishing relevant baseline conditions and parameters. Establishment of a generic reference case requires that the emplacement concept, waste inventory, waste form, waste package, backfill/buffer properties, EBS failure scenarios, host rock properties, and biosphere be specified. The focus in this report is on those elements that are unique to crystalline disposal, especially the geosphere representation. Three emplacement concepts are suggested for further analyses: a waste packages containing 4 PWR assemblies emplaced in boreholes in the floors of tunnels (KBS-3 concept), a 12-assembly waste package emplaced in tunnels, and a 32-assembly dual purpose canister emplaced in tunnels. In addition, three failure scenarios were suggested for future use: a nominal scenario involving corrosion of the waste package in the tunnel emplacement concepts, a manufacturing defect scenario applicable to the KBS-3 concept, and a disruptive glaciation scenario applicable to both emplacement concepts. The computational approaches required to analyze EBS failure and transport processes in a crystalline rock repository are similar to those of argillite/shale, with the most significant difference being that the EBS in a crystalline rock repository will likely experience highly heterogeneous flow rates, which should be represented in the model. The computational approaches required to analyze radionuclide transport in the natural system are very different because of the highly channelized nature of fracture flow. Computational workflows tailored to crystalline rock based on discrete transport pathways extracted from discrete fracture network models are recommended.

Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moracho, M. J.

1999-01-01

In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Santana Andrade

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low. Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (60%. Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Scenario studies for algae production

OpenAIRE

Slegers, P.M.

2014-01-01

Microalgae are a promising biomass for the biobased economy to produce food, feed, fuel, chemicals and materials. So far, large-scale production of algae is limited and as a result estimates on the performance of such large systems are scarce. There is a need to estimate large-scale biomass productivity and energy consumption, while considering the uncertainty and complexity in such large-scale systems. In this thesis frameworks are developed to assess 1) the productivity during algae culti...

Normalization of NDVI from Different Sensor System using MODIS Products as Reference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenxia, Gan; Liangpei, Zhang; Wei, Gong; Huanfeng, Shen

2014-01-01

Medium Resolution NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from different sensor systems such as Landsat, SPOT, ASTER, CBERS and HJ-1A/1B satellites provide detailed spatial information for studies of ecosystems, vegetation biophysics, and land cover. Limitation of sensor designs, cloud contamination, and sensor failure highlighted the need to normalize and integrate NDVI from multiple sensor system in order to create a consistent, long-term NDVI data set. In this paper, we used a reference-based method for NDVI normalization. And present an application of this approach which covert Landsat ETM+ NDVI calculated by digital number (NDVI DN ) to NDVI calculated by surface reflectance (NDVI SR ) using MODIS products as reference, and different cluster was treated differently. Result shows that this approach can produce NDVI with highly agreement to NDVI calculated by surface reflectance from physical approaches based on 6S (Second Simulation of the satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum). Although some variability exists, the cluster specified reference based approach shows considerable potential for NDVI normalization. Therefore, NDVI products in MODIS era from different sources can be combined for time-series analysis, biophysical parameter retrievals, and other downstream analysis

Comparing long term energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

2001-01-01

Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

Employment references: defamation law in the clinical laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Parks, D G

1993-01-01

The law of defamation and the risks involved in issuing employment references are discussed. A hypothetical scenario is used to illustrate the legal standards governing the tort of defamation and to apply those standards to employment references. Practical suggestions for a "controlled reference" policy are provided, with the objective of allowing for responsible exchange of employment information and avoiding a defamation lawsuit.

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2017 Edition. Reference document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2018-01-01

In accordance with French legislation, each year RTE drafts and publishes the 'Generation Adequacy Report' concerning the supply demand balance of electricity. As a diagnostic reference for security of supply and of the electric network, the report is a key corporate exercise which is used to shed light on the medium to long term forecasts for security of supply, and therefore to develop national energy policies. This 2017 report presents: 1 - the power consumption and its perspectives according to the correct implementation of energy efficiency actions; 2 - the power generation park with scenarios integrating a public control and a modeling of the economic decisions of competing actors; 3 - A realistic European power trade vision integrating energy policy uncertainties of neighboring countries; 4 - The five next year analysis: a tight balance with necessary choices; 5 - the 'Ohm' scenario: an unprecedented adaptation of the production park to meet the nuclear share law goal; 6 - The 'Ampere' scenario for a reduction of nuclear production following the rhythm of renewable energy sources development; 7 - The 'Hertz' scenario with a development of thermal means to accelerate the nuclear phasing out without CO 2 emissions increase; 8 - The 'Volt' scenario for a sustained development of renewable energy sources together with an evolution of the nuclear park adapted to the European economic opportunities; 9 - The 'Watt' scenario for an automatic decommissioning of reactors after 40 years of operation; 10 - Self-consumption development and the transformation of the power system under the effect of investment decision decentralization; 11 - Cross-analysis of scenarios: the 2030-2035 power system has to be decided today

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Carlson

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

2009-01-01

on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

PROCESS INNOVATION: HOLISTIC SCENARIOS TO REDUCE TOTAL LEAD TIME

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alin POSTEUCĂ

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The globalization of markets requires continuous development of business holistic scenarios to ensure acceptable flexibility to satisfy customers. Continuous improvement of supply chain supposes continuous improvement of materials and products lead time and flow, material stocks and finished products stocks and increasing the number of suppliers close by as possible. The contribution of our study is to present holistic scenarios of total lead time improvement and innovation by implementing supply chain policy.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Öttl

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanderslice, T.A.

1979-01-01

Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

NegaWatt 2011-2050 scenario - Hypotheses and method. Technical report, May 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

This report proposes an analysis of the negaWatt 2011 scenario. It describes in detail the methodology adopted to elaborate this prospective scenario, and presents the major part of the hypotheses which structure this scenario. A first part presents the approach and methodology (constraints, scenario, model). The second part addresses the issue of energy saving and energy efficiency through a sector-based analysis (housing and office building, transports, industrial and agricultural production). The third part studies the substitution by renewable energies through a supply analysis: energy production based on biomass, renewable energies, and fissile and fossil energies. It outlines the major role of grids in the supply-demand balance. The results of the negaWatt 2011 scenario are presented in terms of final energy, primary energies, and impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses and results related to the different sectors (building, transports, industry and agriculture, energy production) are given in appendix

Guide to Preparing SAND Reports and other communication products : quick reference guide.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2009-10-01

This Quick Reference Guide supplements the more complete Guide to Preparing SAND Reports and Other Communication Products. It provides limited guidance on how to prepare SAND Reports at Sandia National Laboratories. Users are directed to the in-depth guide for explanations of processes.

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

2007-01-01

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders

A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bautista, Santiago

2012-01-01

The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► Venezuela has enough energy resources to supply the energy require for its development. ► A sustainable scenario is posible in Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050. ► The sustainable scenario is technically possible without nuclear power or carbon capture storage technologies. ► The impact over the depleatable resources is higher under the BAU assumptions.

Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

2014-01-01

For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

2015-01-01

This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

Reference outlook for energy and emissions 2005-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dril, A.W.N.; Elzenga, H.E.

2005-05-01

The Reference Projection 2005-2020 covers the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. Two scenarios have been used. The Strong Europe (SE) scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth and strong public responsibility. The Global Economy (GE) scenario assumes high economic growth and has a strong orientation towards private responsibility. Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction efforts abroad. Acidifying emissions of NOx and SO2 stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of fine particles (PM10) will stabilise at present levels [nl

Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sulin Tao

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

Applying the evaluability principle to nutrition table information. How reference information changes people's perception of food products.

Science.gov (United States)

Visschers, Vivianne H M; Siegrist, Michael

2009-04-01

Consumers often neglect or misinterpret nutrition table information. We argue in this paper that this can be explained by the evaluability principle, which posits that people's evaluation of a product corresponds to a greater degree with the product's actual value when people receive reference information about the product than when they do not get this information. We tested this assumption concerning nutrition table information in two studies. In Study 1, respondents received one of six nutrition tables that differed on reference and summary information about either yogurt or chocolate. In the second study, we compared three nutrition tables from the previous study, as applied to either a low nutritional value yogurt or a high nutritional value yogurt. Participants were asked to rate the attractiveness and perceived healthiness of the product in both studies. Results indicated that reference information can change people's product perception. This seems to depend, however, on the product's nutritional value and on people's primary connotation for the product. In sum, the evaluability principle can explain people's perception of a food product. A nutrition table that is adapted to this principle appears to influence people's product perception so that it becomes more in line with its nutritional value. Implications for practice and further research are given.

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

2010-03-15

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

2010-01-01

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

1994-01-01

In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

Scenarios for the transportation sector's energy consumption in Denmark. Focus on road transport. Documentation report; Scenarier for transportsektorens energiforbrug i Danmark. Med fokus paa vejtransporten. Dokumentationsrapport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hethey, J.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A.; Lindboe, H.H.

2011-05-15

The purpose of this project was to make a number of predictions of how the Danish energy consumption for transport purposes may evolve until 2035. The analyses include the total energy consumption for passenger and freight transport and transportation-related energy consumption in the production industry. Air and maritime transport and freight trains are not considered in the analyses. Five scenarios have been calculated, including a reference scenario, three technology scenarios (efficiency, electric vehicle, a biofuel scenario), and a combined scenario. For all scenarios, the development of fuel consumption is calculated and CO{sub 2} emissions both locally and totally are presented. The analyses show that the total energy consumption and total CO{sub 2} emission had a peak in 2007, after which the already registered decrease is likely to continue. This continued decline happens in spite of continued growth in transport services, primarily due to the assumed and expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. (ln)

Guide to preparing SAND reports and other communication products : quick reference guide.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2007-03-01

This 'Quick Reference Guide' supplements the more complete 'Guide to Preparing SAND Reports and Other Communication Products'. It provides limited guidance on how to prepare SAND Reports at Sandia National Laboratories. Users are directed to the in-depth guide for explanations of processes.

Simulation of the Effect of Intensive Forest Management on Forest Production in Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ola Rosvall

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The effects of intensifying the management of 15% of the Swedish forest land on potential future forest production over a 100-year period were investigated in a simulation study. The intensive management treatments, which were introduced over a period of 50 years, were: intensive fertilization of Norway spruce (IntFert; bulking-up Norway spruce elite populations using somatic embryogenesis (SE-seedlings; planting of lodgepole pine, hybrid larch, and Sitka spruce (Contorta, Larch, and Sitka; fertilization with wood ash on peatlands (Wood ash; and conventional fertilization in mature forests (ConFert. Potential sites for applying intensive forest management (IFM to sites with low nature conservation values were determined with a nature conservation score (NCS. Four different scenarios were simulated: “Base scenario”, which aimed at reducing the negative impact on nature conservation values, “Fast implementation”, “No IntFert” (IntFert was not used, and “Large Forest Companies”, where the majority of plots were selected on company land. Total yields during the 100-year simulation period were about 85–92% higher for the intensive forest management scenarios than for the reference scenario (business as usual. In the “No IntFert” scenario total production was 1.8% lower and in the “Large Forest Companies” scenario total production was 4.8% lower than in the “Base scenario”. “Fast implementation” of IFM increased yield by 15% compared to the “Base scenario”. Norway spruce SE-seedlings and IntFert gave the highest yields, measured as total production during the 100-year simulation period, but relative to the yields in the reference scenario, the highest increases in yield were for Contorta. The “Base scenario” and “No IntFert” gave the highest yields for plots with the lowest NCS, but plots with higher NCS had to be used in the “Fast implementation” and “Large Forest Companies” scenarios. More than

Polarized heavy baryon production in quark-diquark model considering two different scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moosavi Nejad, S.M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), School of Particles and Accelerators, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Delpasand, M. [Yazd University, Faculty of Physics, Yazd (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-09-15

At sufficiently large transverse momentum, the dominant production mechanism for heavy baryons is actually the fragmentation. In this work, we first study the direct fragmentation of a heavy quark into the unpolarized triply heavy baryons in the leading order of perturbative QCD. In a completely different approach, we also analyze the two-stage fragmentation of a heavy quark into a scalar diquark followed by the fragmentation of such a scalar diquark into a triply heavy baryon: quark-diquark model of baryons. The results of this model are in acceptable agreement with those obtained through a full perturbative regime. Relying on the quark-diquark model and considering two different scenarios we determine the spin-dependent fragmentation functions of polarized heavy baryons in such a way that a vector or a pseudoscalar heavy diquark is an intermediate particle between the initial heavy quark and the final state baryon. (orig.)

[Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

2013-01-01

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

Interchangeability of biosimilar and biological reference product: updated regulatory positions and pre- and post-marketing evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Trifirò, Gianluca; Marcianò, Ilaria; Ingrasciotta, Ylenia

2018-03-01

Since 2006, biosimilars have been available in several countries worldwide, thus allowing for potential savings in pharmaceutical expenditure. However, there have been numerous debates about the interchangeability of biosimilars and reference products based on concerns of immunogenicity by switching between biological products, which may cause lack of effect and toxicity. Areas covered: The authors provide the reader with an overview of the different positions of regulatory authorities on the interchangeability and automatic substitution of biosimilars and reference products. Presently, the FDA allows automatic substitution without prescriber intervention if the biosimilar is interchangeable with reference products, while the European Medicines Agency delegate to each single EU member state. Expert opinion: Different approaches in defining interchangeability and automatic substitution call for harmonization to increase confidence of healthcare professionals and patients about the clinical impact of switching. Networks of electronic healthcare records and administrative databases, potentially linkable to clinical charts and registries may rapidly assess frequency and benefit-risk profile of different switching patterns in routine care at different levels, thus integrating and strengthening pre-marketing evidence.

Public synthesis of the reference costs study of the electric power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Every 3 or 5 years, the DGEC published the reference costs study of the electric power production which evaluates, in a theoretical framework, the total cost of an electrical MWh, from different production ways. These studies bring information for the definition of the energy policy and the elaboration of the investments program. because of the great competition of the market, it was decided not to publish the absolute value of the hypothesis and the results but under indexed form. (A.L.B.)

Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey

2014-01-01

Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

2011-01-01

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO 2 emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2015-06-15

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG Site-Scale Model. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P., E-mail: mgobien@nwmo.ca [Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P.

2015-01-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

Science.gov (United States)

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

Scenarios for shale oil, syncrude and electricity production in Estonia in the interim 1995-2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oepik, I.

1992-01-01

This paper is based on the author's pre-feasibility studies of oil shale utilization in oil production, electricity generation and cement industry. The electricity generation has been calculated on the basis of 1.4 and 1.6 GW oil shale power plants with pulverized fuel combustion today. The three scenarios OILMIN, OILMED and OILMAX differ by annual oil production and different investment costs. The investments in the oil shale processing industry seem to be more profitable than those in electricity generation. It is also important to take into account that the very high sensitivity of oil market to geopolitical aspects of resources and to sudden crises, makes the crude price a stochastic parameter, which loses its indicative character for long term economic choice. Therefore it will be very important to have the electric power plants with flexible combined oil shale and coal combustion. 4 figs., 4 tabs., 6 refs

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

On the role of object knowledge in reference production : Effects of color typicality on content determination

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Westerbeek, H.G.W.; Koolen, R.M.F.; Maes, A.A.; Bello, Paul; Guarini, Marcello; McShane, Marjorie; Scassellati, Brian

2014-01-01

In two language production experiments, we investigated whether stored knowledge of the typical color of objects affects spoken reference. In experiment 1, human speakers referred to objects with colors ranging from very typical (e.g., red tomato) to very atypical (e.g., blue pepper). The

Hydrogen production through nuclear energy, a sustainable scenario in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J.L.

2007-01-01

The energy is a key point in the social and economic development of a country, for such motive to assure the energy supply in Mexico it is of vital importance. The hydrogen it is without a doubt some one of the alternating promising fuels before the visible one necessity to decentralize the energy production based on hydrocarbons. The versatility of their applications, it high heating power and having with the more clean fuel cycle of the energy basket with which count at the moment, they are only some examples of their development potential. However the more abundant element of the universe it is not in their elementary form in our planet, it forms molecules like in the hydrocarbons or water and it stops their use it should be extracted. At the present time different methods are known for the extraction of hydrogen, there is thermal, electric, chemical, photovoltaic among others. The election of the extraction method and the primary energy source to carry out it are decisive to judge the sustainability of the hydrogen production. The sustainable development is defined as development that covers the present necessities without committing the necessity to cover the necessities of the future generations, and in the mark of this definition four indicators of the sustainable development of the different cycles of fuel were evaluated in the hydrogen production in Mexico. These indicators take in consideration the emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (environment), the readiness of the energy resources (technology), the impacts in the floor use (social) and the production costs of the cycles (economy). In this work the processes were studied at the moment available for the generation of hydrogen, those that use coal, natural gas, hydraulic, eolic energy, biomass and nuclear, as primary energy sources. These processes were evaluated with energy references of Mexico to obtain the best alternative for hydrogen production. (Author)

Using scenarios for dissemination - Experiences from the IMS GLOBEMEN project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ollus, Martin; Hartel, Ingo; Tølle, Martin

2002-01-01

due to the complexities of the interdisciplinary field addressed. As an instrument for communication to the non-specialist public the IMS GLOBEMEN project produces a web-based scenario as part of its dissemination activities. It is aimed at giving a practical overview of specific challenges...... in the field and contributions from the project. Based upon a generic Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (called VERA) the partners in the project have developed a set of protypes to be implemeted in their own business processes. The results will be illutrated in one integrated scenario....

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

OpenAIRE

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

The effects of user factors and symbol referents on public symbol design using the stereotype production method.

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Annie W Y; Siu, Kin Wai Michael; Chan, Chetwyn C H

2012-01-01

This study investigated the influence of user factors and symbol referents on public symbol design among older people, using the stereotype production method for collecting user ideas during the symbol design process. Thirty-one older adults were asked to draw images based on 28 public symbol referents and to indicate their familiarity with and ease with which they visualised each referent. Differences were found between the pictorial solutions generated by males and females. However, symbol design was not influenced by participants' education level, vividness of visual imagery, object imagery preference or spatial imagery preference. Both familiar and unfamiliar referents were illustrated pictorially without much difficulty by users. The more visual the referent, the less difficulty the users had in illustrating it. The findings of this study should aid the optimisation of the stereotype production method for user-involved symbol design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

2007-01-01

The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

2016-01-01

This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

Reference life cycle assessment scenarios for manure management in the Baltic Sea Regions - An assessment covering six animal production, five BSR countries, and four manure types

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamelin, Lorie; Baky, A; Cano-Bernal, J

the manure is applied, specific legislations governing the manure management practices, etc.). Further, it presents a reference manure composition for each of these reference systems, including key parameters such as dry matter, nitrogen (inorganic and total), phosphorus, carbon and volatile solids content......One major pre-condition for assessing a manure management technique in a whole system or LCA-approach is to define a reference system against which this technique can be assessed. This report thus presents and details the establishment of such reference systems, comprising eight different manure...... types (fattening pig slurry, dairy cow slurry, hens manure, bulls deep litter, fattening pig solid manure, dairy cow solid manure, horse manure & broilers manure) and five Baltic Sea Regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Poland), for a total of 15 reference systems. It presents, for each...

Experimental hydrate formation and gas production scenarios based on CO{sub 2} sequestration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, J.C.; Howard, J.J. [ConocoPhillips, Bartlesville, OK (United States). Reservoir Laboratories; Baldwin, B.A. [Green Country Petrophysics LLC, Dewey, OK (United States); Ersland, G.; Husebo, J.; Graue, A. [Bergen Univ., Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Physics and Technology

2008-07-01

Gas hydrate production strategies have focused on depressurization or thermal stimulation of the reservoir, which in turn leads to hydrate dissociation. In order to evaluate potential production scenarios, the recovery efficiency of the natural gas from hydrate must be known along with the corresponding amounts of produced water. This study focused on the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) with the natural gas hydrate and the subsequent release of free methane (CH{sub 4}). Laboratory experiments that investigated the rates and mechanisms of hydrate formation in coarse-grained porous media have shown the significance of initial water saturation and salinity on forming methane hydrates. Many of the experiments were performed in a sample holder fitted with an MRI instrument for monitoring hydrate formation. Hydrate-saturated samples were subjected to different procedures to release methane. The rates and efficiency of the exchange process were reproducible over a series of initial conditions. The exchange process was rapid and efficient in that no free water was observed in the core with MRI measurements. Injection of CO{sub 2} into the whole-core hydrate-saturated pore system resulted in methane production at the outlet end. Permeability measurements on these hydrate saturated cores during hydrate formation decreased to low values, but enough for gas transport. The lower permeability values remained constant during the methane-carbon dioxide exchange process in the hydrate structure. 12 refs., 9 figs.

Reference dosimetry of proton pencil beams based on dose-area product: a proof of concept.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomà, Carles; Safai, Sairos; Vörös, Sándor

2017-06-21

This paper describes a novel approach to the reference dosimetry of proton pencil beams based on dose-area product ([Formula: see text]). It depicts the calibration of a large-diameter plane-parallel ionization chamber in terms of dose-area product in a 60 Co beam, the Monte Carlo calculation of beam quality correction factors-in terms of dose-area product-in proton beams, the Monte Carlo calculation of nuclear halo correction factors, and the experimental determination of [Formula: see text] of a single proton pencil beam. This new approach to reference dosimetry proves to be feasible, as it yields [Formula: see text] values in agreement with the standard and well-established approach of determining the absorbed dose to water at the centre of a broad homogeneous field generated by the superposition of regularly-spaced proton pencil beams.

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: A consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik

2012-01-01

and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow...... and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO2-eq. ha-1, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO2-eq. ha-1, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty...... analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results. © 2012 American Chemical Society....

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

2017-01-01

levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

User Location Identification for Cooperative Human-Centric Sensing (HCS) Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova

– Human-Centric Sensing (HCS) is a newly emerged concept in the context of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the active and assisted living (AAL) scenario. HCS connectivity, also referred to as “smart connectivity” enables applications that are highly personalized and often time...

Static and Dynamic Pricing Strategies in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Reference Quality Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhichao Zhang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Remanufacturing of returned products has been increasingly recognized in industries as an effective approach to face environmental responsibility, government regulations, and increased awareness of consumers. In this paper, we address a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC in which the manufacturer produces the brand-new products, as well as the remanufactured goods while the retailer sells these products to customers. We consider several different scenarios: the manufacturer and the retailer adopt a steady-state price or a dynamic price with reference quality effects in a centralized case; either, neither or both the manufacturer and the retailer price dynamically with reference quality effects, respectively, in a decentralized model. We solve the problem with the retailer recycling the sold copies and deduce the optimal pricing strategies while the manufacturer in charge of recovering the used items in such a CLSC. The result shows that dynamic pricing strategies are much more profitable for the supply chain and its members when compared with pricing statically; the dynamic pricing strategies with time-varying quality characterized by reference quality are more suited to a long-term and cooperative closed-loop supply chain. Moreover, the optimal recycling fraction relies on the recovery cost coefficient and proves to be uniform despite adopting a dynamic price and quality in all distinct cases.

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Grienitz

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

2018-03-01

Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This talk presents recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such “compressed” scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results make use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre of mass of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hee-Kyung

2015-01-01

This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

Life Cycle Assessment of Biogas Production from Marine Macroalgae: a Latvian Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Pilicka, Iluta; Blumberga, Dagnija; Romagnoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

There is potential environmental benefit to be gained from the use of algae because of their ability to fix CO2, no need for direct land use and utilization of bio-waste (rich in potassium, phosphate and nitrogen based compounds) as a nutrients. The aim of the research is to assess the impact of biogas production and the final use in a cogeneration unit system from a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in comparison with a similar reference system using a non-renewable source (e.g. natural gas). The paper is intended to be a preliminary study for understanding the implementation of this novel technology in a Latvian context.

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

2013-01-01

This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This contribution presented recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such ``compressed'' scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results made use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC.

simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

2012-07-01

The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

Reference frame for Product Configuration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ladeby, Klaes Rohde; Oddsson, Gudmundur Valur

2011-01-01

a reference frame for configuration that permits 1) a more precise understanding of a configuration system, 2) a understanding of how the configuration system relate to other systems, and 3) a definition of the basic concepts in configuration. The total configuration system, together with the definition...

Economic Analysis of the Reference Design for a Nuclear-Driven High-Temperature-Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

E. A. Harvego; M. G. McKellar; M. S. Sohal; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

2008-01-01

A reference design for a commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production was developed to provide a basis for comparing the HTE concept with other hydrogen production concepts. The reference plant design is driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle. The reference design reactor power is 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 540 C and 900 C, respectively. The electrolysis unit used to produce hydrogen consists of 4,009,177 cells with a per-cell active area of 225 cm2. A nominal cell area-specific resistance, ASR, value of 0.4 Ohm-cm2 with a current density of 0.25 A/cm2 was used, and isothermal boundary conditions were assumed. The optimized design for the reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes an air-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode side of the electrolyzer. The inlet air for the air-sweep system is compressed to the system operating pressure of 5.0 MPa in a four-stage compressor with intercooling. The alternating current, AC, to direct current, DC, conversion is 96%. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the low heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 47.12% at a hydrogen production rate of 2.356 kg/s. An economic analysis of the plant was also performed using the H2A Analysis Methodology developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program. The results of the economic analysis demonstrated that the HTE hydrogen production plant driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear power plant can deliver hydrogen at a competitive cost using realistic financial and cost estimating assumptions. A required cost of $3.23 per kg of hydrogen produced was calculated assuming an internal rate of return of 10%. Approximately 73% of this cost ($2.36/kg) is the result of capital costs associated with

Environmental and economic assessment of protected crops in four European scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torrellas, M.; Antón, A.; Ruijs, M.N.A.; Garcia Victoria, N.; Stanghellini, C.; Montero, J.I.

2012-01-01

In this study we analysed the environmental and economic profile of current agricultural practices for greenhouse crops, in cold and warm climates in Europe, using four scenarios as reference systems: tomato crop in a plastic greenhouse in Spain, and in glasshouses in Hungary and the Netherlands,

Quantitative assessment of consequences of natural events for the performance of waste disposal isolation system. On consequences of natural events in groundwater scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

1999-02-01

This year, first, on seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion, climate change and human activity (intrusion) scenarios, while effects of those scenarios were primarily evaluated in reference cases last year, variant cases with another kind of patterns of models and parameters compared to reference cases, have been studied and set, and their effects have been analyzed and evaluated. Secondly, referring to the results of the above discussions, a preliminary study was made to evaluate the complex effect caused by combining natural events such as volcanism, seismicity and faulting, uplift and erosion and climate change, where discussions have been made on which combined scenario was more important and how to set the analysis framework. (author)

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-01

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-15

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

1996-01-01

The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-10-01

Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

1999-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

Comparative energy and exergy performance assessments of a microcogenerator unit in different electricity mix scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonçalves, Pedro; Angrisani, Giovanni; Roselli, Carlo; Gaspar, Adélio R.; Gameiro da Silva, Manuel

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Experimental and energy–exergy modelling of a 6 kW micro-combined heat and power unit. • Evaluation of energy and exergy efficiencies for performance assessment. • Use of exergy and energy indicators for comparison with a reference system. • Use of different renewables supply options into the electric and heat reference system. • The electric grid mix of Portugal and Italy is used and discussed. - Abstract: The Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration proposes a comparative indicator based on primary energy savings, neglecting some important thermodynamic aspects, such as exergy. This study aims to compare and discuss the usefulness of a set of complementary indicators for performance assessments of cogeneration systems, concerning thermodynamic principles based on first and second law (the exergy approach). As case study, a 6 kW electric output micro-combined heat and power unit was experimentally tested and a model of the unit was developed in TRNSYS. Considering as reference a set of different heat and electricity scenarios, including the actual electric mixes of Portugal and Italy, the indicators case incon (PES) and Primary and Total Irreversibilities Savings (PIS and TIS), as well as energy and exergy renewability ratios were assessed and discussed. The results show that the use of MCHP has higher advantages for the Italian electric grid, than an equivalent scenario considering the Portuguese electric network as reference. As result, for a particular scenario analysed, PES and PIS have 3% and 6% for Portugal, and 10% and 18% for Italy, respectively. Furthermore, for one particular scenario evaluated, the indicators energetic and exergetic renewability ratios have 23% and 14%, respectively for the Portuguese electric grid, and 19% and 10% for the Italian electric system

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

Science.gov (United States)

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

Technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning reference light-water reactors following postulated accidents. Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, E S; Holter, G M

1982-11-01

Appendices contain information concerning the reference site description; reference PWR facility description; details of reference accident scenarios and resultant contamination levels; generic cleanup and decommissioning information; details of activities and manpower requirements for accident cleanup at a reference PWR; activities and manpower requirements for decommissioning at a reference PWR; costs of decommissioning at a reference PWR; cost estimating bases; safety assessment details; and details of post-accident cleanup and decommissioning at a reference BWR.

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P.; Jansen, J.C.

2001-06-01

A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been performed from the European point of view and from the point of view of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully. A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look' gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is

Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashley B Bennett

Full Text Available In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Global power production scenarios to 2100 and the dual role of forests: accelerated climate damage or regulating and provisioning ecosystem services?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callesen, Ingeborg

The worlds' electrical power production is depending on the current energy infrastructure, and future investments in new power supply facilities using renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Continued growth in power production in the 21st century will cause global environmental change (GEC......). GEC with climate change as an important driver will affect the environment and the economy in multiple ways that can be summarized as losses of biodiversity and changing ecosystem services (ES), but with very diverse temporal and spatial impacts. In a simple global growth model for power production......, including non-renewable and renewable energy sources, the potential role of forest biomass is investigated. The demands for forest ecosystem services imposed by the global power production are assessed in the present study. Three global power supply scenarios to 2050 with different emphasis...

Scenario studies for algae production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slegers, P.M.

2014-01-01

Microalgae are a promising biomass for the biobased economy to produce food, feed, fuel, chemicals and materials. So far, large-scale production of algae is limited and as a result estimates on the performance of such large systems are scarce. There is a need to estimate large-scale biomass

Exploring Accessibility Scenarios for 2020 in Relation with Future ICT Trends on Assistive Technology and Accessibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamantios Koumpis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we are going to present a set of 5 future scenarios that were developed within the eAccessibility2020 study. The study aims to explore and analyse the referred relationships between the emerging ICT landscape, in the societal and economic context and the development and provision of assistive technologies (AT and e-Accessibility, within a perspective of 10 years. The scenarios were developed after an initial trend analysis that the study team conducted based on data gathering. The scenarios were developed based on a methodology which defined a set of guides for scenario development and a set of visions for the future of eAccessibility.

A synthesis on the HTR scenario studies at CEA - HTR2008-58059

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, L.; Greneche, D.

2008-01-01

The aim of the studies is to assess the impact of the deployment of an HTR park replacing one part of the current PWR reactors. The other part of the current park is replaced by EPRs. In these scenarios, the annual electricity production is constant at 400 TWhe. This value corresponds roughly to the present nuclear electricity production in France. From 2002 to 2007, an important program study on HTR has been carried out by CEA and AREVA NC under the joint CEA - AREVA NC project 'prospective studies on the management of Plutonium and the back end of the cycle'. This program addresses core physic and scenario studies, and also the back end of the fuel cycle : reprocessing of spent fuel and HTR waste management. Some core physic studies have already been presented in the reference [1]. This paper presents the results of the scenario studies using two concepts: either the standard core of the Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor concept (GTMHR) with Uranium or Plutonium fuel, or the Multiple Fuel Rows Core (MFRC) dedicated to the actinide burning. The insertion of a new concept (fuel, reactor, process) must be evaluated in the global electronuclear system with an analysis of the impact on the fuel cycle (Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, Reactor, Processing, Interim Storage, Waste storage). The scenario studies are used to evaluate different solutions to manage nuclear materials (uranium, plutonium) and wastes (minor actinides and fission products), from the present situation in France (closed cycle with storage of used MOX fuels) until the final equilibrium: mixed nuclear park with EPR and HTR. These studies allow to calculate material flows and inventories of these elements in each step of the fuel cycle. The simulation of transient scenarios from the present situation to the future situation is performed with the COSI code. HTR reactors feature a high flexibility with regard to fuel cycle options. Several versions of core have been investigated, with different type of

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael

2009-01-01

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Global Reference Tables for Production Systems

Data.gov (United States)

Social Security Administration — This database is a collection of reference tables that store common information used throughout SSA. These tables standardized code structures and code usage of SSA...

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2015-01-01

Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation

Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dengpan Xiao

2018-04-01

Full Text Available With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2, it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S. Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010, the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP and the whole growth period (WGP. As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE significantly improved in the future period.

Climate Reference Network Daily01 Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Climate Reference Network is designed specifically to monitor national climate change with best scientific practice and adherence to the accepted principles...

Climate Reference Network Hourly02 Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Climate Reference Network is designed specifically to monitor national climate change with best scientific practice and adherence to the accepted principles...

Environmental cost-effectiveness of bio diesel production in Greece: Current policies and alternative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iliopoulos, Constantine; Rozakis, Stelios

2010-01-01

Following European Directive 2003/30/EC, the Greek Government adapted legislation that introduces and regulates the bio diesel market. The implemented quota scheme allocates the country's annual, predetermined, tax exempt production of bio diesel to industries based on their ability to meet several criteria. A number of bio diesel supply chain stakeholders have criticized this policy for being efficiency-robbing and vague. This paper uses 2007 data from energy crop farms and three bio diesel-producing companies in order to assess these criticisms. We study the economic and environmental aspects of the currently adopted policy and compare them to three alternative scenarios. We conclude that such criticisms have a merit and that policy makers need to reconsider their alternative options regarding the promotion of bio diesel in transport. Permission of sales directly to local consumers and promotion of forward integration by farmers are efficiency enhancing and environment-friendly means of promoting the use of bio diesel in transport.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Long-term safety and efficacy of biosimilar infliximab among patients with inflammatory arthritis switched from reference product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdalla A

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abuelmagd Abdalla, Niamh Byrne, Richard Conway, Thomas Walsh, Geraldine Mannion, Michael Hanly, Miriam O’Sullivan, Ann Maria Curran, John J Carey Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of the biosimilar infliximab in adult patients with inflammatory arthritis switched from reference product in our center. Patients and methods: In April 2014, patients attending our rheumatology service for infliximab infusions were switched from reference product to the biosimilar infliximab following consent and hospital approval. Results: Around 34 patients with inflammatory arthritis were switched from reference product to biosimilar infliximab in 2014: 50% female, mean age 55 years (standard deviation=12.9, mean disease duration 14.79 years (9.7, median duration on infliximab 57 months, and two-thirds on oral disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. There was no difference in efficacy or safety in the first 6 months of therapy. By the end of 2015, the mean follow-up on biosimilar infliximab was 15.8 (standard deviation=6.3 months. Our results showed no significant difference in Health Assessment Questionnaire score, patient global assessment of disease activity, number of disease flares, or the medication dose between the originator and the biosimilar infliximab. However, reported pain and C-reactive protein values were significantly higher during the longer follow-up period (p=0.043, 0.001 respectively. There was no significant difference in the number of adverse events or infusion reactions during follow-up periods. Only five (14.7% patients discontinued the biosimilar infliximab. Conclusion: Our patients experienced similar efficacy and safety for managing their arthritis with the biosimilar infliximab as the reference product infliximab, but at a much lower cost. Keywords: biologic therapy, rheumatic diseases, biosimilar exchange, infliximab, adult

Production of NDA Working Reference Materials for the Capability Evaluation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noll, P.D. Jr.; Marshall, R.S.

1998-01-01

The production of Non Destructive Assay (NDA) Working Reference Materials (WRMs) that are traceable to nationally recognized standards was undertaken to support implementation of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) Nondestructive Waste Assay Capability Evaluation Project (CEP). The WRMs produced for the CEP project consist of Increased Am/Pu mass ration (IAP) and depleted Uranium (DU) WRMs. The CEP IAP/DU WRM set provides radioactive material standards for use in combination with 55 gallon drum waste matrix surrogates for the assessment of waste NDA assay system performance. The Production of WRMs is a meticulous process that is not without certain trials and tribulations. Problems may arise at any of the various stages of WRM production which include, but are not limited to; material characterization (physical, chemical, and isotopic), material blend parameters, personnel radiation exposure, gas generation phenomenon, traceability to national standards, encapsulation, statistical evaluation of the data, and others. Presented here is an overall description of the process by which the CEP WRMs were produced and certified as well as discussions pertaining to some of the problems encountered and how they were solved

Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

2014-01-01

The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

Reference costs for power generation; Couts de reference de la production electrique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-12-01

The first part of the 2003 study of reference costs for power generation has been completed. It was carried out by the General Directorate for Energy and Raw Materials (DGEMP) of the French Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry, with the collaboration of power-plant operators, construction firms and many other experts. A Review Committee of experts including economists (Forecasting Department, French Planning Office), qualified public figures, representatives of power-plant construction firms and operators, and non-governmental organization (NGO) experts, was consulted in the final phase. The study examines the costs of power generated by different methods (i.e. nuclear and fossil-fuel [gas-, coal-, and oil-fired] power plants) in the context of an industrial operation beginning in the year 2015. - The second part of the study relating to decentralized production methods (wind, photovoltaic, combined heat and power) is still in progress and will be presented at the beginning of next year. - 1. Study approach: The study is undertaken mainly from an investor's perspective and uses an 8% discount rate to evaluate the expenses and receipts from different years. In addition, the investment costs are considered explicitly in terms of interest during construction. - 2. Plant operating on a full-time basis (year-round): The following graph illustrates the main conclusions of the study for an effective operating period of 8000 hours. It can be seen that nuclear is more competitive than the other production methods for a year-round operation with an 8% discount rate applied to expenses. This competitiveness is even better if the costs related to greenhouse-gas (CO{sub 2}) emission are taken into account in estimating the MWh cost price. Integrating the costs resulting from CO{sub 2} emissions by non-nuclear fuels (gas, coal), which will be compulsory as of 2004 with the transposition of European directives, increases the total cost per MWh of these power generation

Reference costs for power generation; Couts de reference de la production electrique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-12-01

The first part of the 2003 study of reference costs for power generation has been completed. It was carried out by the General Directorate for Energy and Raw Materials (DGEMP) of the French Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industry, with the collaboration of power-plant operators, construction firms and many other experts. A Review Committee of experts including economists (Forecasting Department, French Planning Office), qualified public figures, representatives of power-plant construction firms and operators, and non-governmental organization (NGO) experts, was consulted in the final phase. The study examines the costs of power generated by different methods (i.e. nuclear and fossil-fuel [gas-, coal-, and oil-fired] power plants) in the context of an industrial operation beginning in the year 2015. - The second part of the study relating to decentralized production methods (wind, photovoltaic, combined heat and power) is still in progress and will be presented at the beginning of next year. - 1. Study approach: The study is undertaken mainly from an investor's perspective and uses an 8% discount rate to evaluate the expenses and receipts from different years. In addition, the investment costs are considered explicitly in terms of interest during construction. - 2. Plant operating on a full-time basis (year-round): The following graph illustrates the main conclusions of the study for an effective operating period of 8000 hours. It can be seen that nuclear is more competitive than the other production methods for a year-round operation with an 8% discount rate applied to expenses. This competitiveness is even better if the costs related to greenhouse-gas (CO{sub 2}) emission are taken into account in estimating the MWh cost price. Integrating the costs resulting from CO{sub 2} emissions by non-nuclear fuels (gas, coal), which will be compulsory as of 2004 with the transposition of European directives, increases the total cost per MWh of these power

Performance analysis of PPP ambiguity resolution with UPD products estimated from different scales of reference station networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Siyao; Li, Bofeng; Li, Xingxing; Zang, Nan

2018-01-01

Integer ambiguity fixing with uncalibrated phase delay (UPD) products can significantly shorten the initialization time and improve the accuracy of precise point positioning (PPP). Since the tracking arcs of satellites and the behavior of atmospheric biases can be very different for the reference networks with different scales, the qualities of corresponding UPD products may be also various. The purpose of this paper is to comparatively investigate the influence of different scales of reference station networks on UPD estimation and user ambiguity resolution. Three reference station networks with global, wide-area and local scales are used to compute the UPD products and analyze their impact on the PPP-AR. The time-to-first-fix, the unfix rate and the incorrect fix rate of PPP-AR are analyzed. Moreover, in order to further shorten the convergence time for obtaining precise positioning, a modified partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) and corresponding validation strategy are presented. In this PAR method, the ambiguity subset is determined by removing the ambiguity one by one in the order of ascending elevations. Besides, for static positioning mode, a coordinate validation strategy is employed to enhance the reliability of the fixed coordinate. The experiment results show that UPD products computed by smaller station network are more accurate and lead to a better coordinate solution; the PAR method used in this paper can shorten the convergence time and the coordinate validation strategy can improve the availability of high precision positioning.

Spiked environmental matrix for use as a reference material for gamma-ray spectrometry: Production and homogeneity test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobiech-Matura, K.; Máté, B.; Altzitzoglou, T.

2016-01-01

The application of a spiking method for reference material production and its utilisation for a food matrix is presented. The raw rice powder was tested by means of γ-ray spectrometry and spiked with a "1"3"7Cs solution. The spiked material was mixed and tested for homogeneity. The future use of the rice powder reference material after the entire characterisation cycle will be for γ-ray spectrometry method validation. - Highlights: • Spiking blank substance with a traceable radioactive solution • Spiked reference material for γ-ray emitting radionuclides in food matrix • Results of the homogeneity tests are presented

Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

Science.gov (United States)

Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Modelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenariosModelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. O. Belyakov

2017-01-01

were found to be 350–400 mm during AWSP with ANPP at 350 g/m2. On the basis of the regression model and current forecasts of changes in precipitation rates we made a forecast of net primary production of plant communities for four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 described in the Fifth Assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. For this purpose, bioclimate projections of 10 major climate models (The Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M, used for preparation of the IPCC report, were analyzed and imported to the geographical information system package QGIS. QGIS modelling software was used for geoanalysis and calculation of GIS-layers for Askania-Nova and adjacent arid grasslands. The results of modelling with the 10 climate models were compared and analyzed for each of the four IPCC scenarios, depending on predicted CO2 levels. The presented modelling results showed a trend to growth in AWSP precipitation and NPP for all scenarios up to 2040–2060. The scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 predicted the optimum precipitation zone for current plant diversity for the period of 2040–2060 and scenario RCP8.5 predicted an optimum zone peak after 2080. The study confirmed the importance of monitoring the productivity of herbaceous communities in dry steppe ecosystems ofUkraine.

Reference in human and non-human primate communication: What does it take to refer?

Science.gov (United States)

Sievers, Christine; Gruber, Thibaud

2016-07-01

The concept of functional reference has been used to isolate potentially referential vocal signals in animal communication. However, its relatedness to the phenomenon of reference in human language has recently been brought into question. While some researchers have suggested abandoning the concept of functional reference altogether, others advocate a revision of its definition to include contextual cues that play a role in signal production and perception. Empirical and theoretical work on functional reference has also put much emphasis on how the receiver understands the referential signal. However, reference, as defined in the linguistic literature, is an action of the producer, and therefore, any definition describing reference in non-human animals must also focus on the producer. To successfully determine whether a signal is used to refer, we suggest an approach from the field of pragmatics, taking a closer look at specific situations of signal production, specifically at the factors that influence the production of a signal by an individual. We define the concept of signaller's reference to identify intentional acts of reference produced by a signaller independently of the communicative modality, and illustrate it with a case study of the hoo vocalizations produced by wild chimpanzees during travel. This novel framework introduces an intentional approach to referentiality. It may therefore permit a closer comparison of human and non-human animal referential behaviour and underlying cognitive processes, allowing us to identify what may have emerged solely in the human lineage.

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Antonio Conejero

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA); Scientific Opinion on principles for deriving and applying Dietary Reference Values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetens, Inge

This Opinion of the EFSA Panel on Dietetic products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA) deals with the general principles for development and application of Dietary Reference Values (DRVs). These quantitative reference values for nutrient intakes for healthy individuals and populations are based...

Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

2014-01-01

An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

Propagation Path Loss Models for 5G Urban Micro- and Macro-Cellular Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sun, Shu; Rappaport, Theodore S.; Rangan, Sundeep

2016-01-01

This paper presents and compares two candidate large-scale propagation path loss models, the alpha-beta-gamma (ABG) model and the close-in (CI) free space reference distance model, for the design of fifth generation (5G) wireless communication systems in urban micro- and macro-cellular scenarios....

Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, Rainer

2013-01-01

The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

2010-01-01

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

2010-07-15

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

Development and use of reference materials and quality control materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-04-01

Current knowledge is summarized on correct use of commercially available certified reference materials (CRMs) and reference materials (RMs). Acknowledged are also the limitations and restrictions analysts have to face if they want to apply quality control. The concept of in-house RMs or quality control materials (QCMs) is advocated to supplement the use of CRMs for quality control purposes. On hand advice on how to select, prepare, characterize and use these QCMs is given from the experts' perspective. Several scenarios are described to make this concept widely applicable to: advanced laboratories with CRMs with validated analytical techniques available, laboratories with less experience and facilities, as well as cases were labile compounds and unstable matrices are involved. Each scenario considers different approaches to overcome the lack of appropriate CRMs and advise on the preparation of QCMs, which might fit the particular purpose

Development and use of reference materials and quality control materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-04-01

Current knowledge is summarized on correct use of commercially available certified reference materials (CRMs) and reference materials (RMs). Acknowledged are also the limitations and restrictions analysts have to face if they want to apply quality control. The concept of in-house RMs or quality control materials (QCMs) is advocated to supplement the use of CRMs for quality control purposes. On hand advice on how to select, prepare, characterize and use these QCMs is given from the experts' perspective. Several scenarios are described to make this concept widely applicable to: advanced laboratories with CRMs with validated analytical techniques available, laboratories with less experience and facilities, as well as cases were labile compounds and unstable matrices are involved. Each scenario considers different approaches to overcome the lack of appropriate CRMs and advise on the preparation of QCMs, which might fit the particular purpose.

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

1990-01-01

Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

Life-cycle flow of mercury and recycling scenario of fluorescent lamps in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Asari, Misuzu; Fukui, Kazuki; Sakai, Shin-Ichi

2008-04-01

We summarized the mercury flow of mercury-containing products from their manufacture to their disposal in Japan and discussed the current management of mercury-containing hazardous household waste (HHW). The mercury flow originating from these products was estimated to be about 10-20 tonnes annually, about 5 tonnes of which was attributable to fluorescent lamps, the major mercury-containing product in Japan. The recent rapid increase in digital home electronics with liquid crystal displays (e.g.,televisions, personal computers, mobile phones, and digital cameras) has led to a marked increase in the production of backlights, which are also fluorescent and contain mercury. Most of the annual flow was disposed of as waste, with only 0.6 tonnes Hg recovered. The mercury flow for end-of-life fluorescent lamps (excluding backlights) was analyzed under three scenarios for Kyoto, Japan for 2003: the present condition scenario, the improved recycling scenario, and the complete recycling scenario. Under the present condition scenario, mercury flow was calculated to be 34 kg Hg for incineration, 21 kg Hg for landfill, and only 4 kg Hg for recycling. The complete recycling scenario shows a simple flow, with all mercury recycled. Under this scenario for Kyoto, we calculated that a cyclic system having 47 kg of mercury (3.5 tonnes Hg in Japan) could be established if all fluorescent lamps (excluding those stored in residences) were collected and recycled. Mercury is a HHW priority chemical, and we need to limit its use and establish a closed-loop system. There are currently no regulations to achieve this, and the management of most HHWs is left to local governments. Therefore, products are disposed of in landfills or incinerated, except for some that are voluntarily collected and recycled. In order to recycle all of the waste fluorescent lamps, we must have a complete recycling system that has a high rate of public participation in collection. We also must have a closed

Life-cycle flow of mercury and recycling scenario of fluorescent lamps in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asari, Misuzu; Fukui, Kazuki; Sakai, Shin-ichi

2008-01-01

We summarized the mercury flow of mercury-containing products from their manufacture to their disposal in Japan and discussed the current management of mercury-containing hazardous household waste (HHW). The mercury flow originating from these products was estimated to be about 10-20 tonnes annually, about 5 tonnes of which was attributable to fluorescent lamps, the major mercury-containing product in Japan. The recent rapid increase in digital home electronics with liquid crystal displays (e.g., televisions, personal computers, mobile phones, and digital cameras) has led to a marked increase in the production of backlights, which are also fluorescent and contain mercury. Most of the annual flow was disposed of as waste, with only 0.6 tonnes Hg recovered. The mercury flow for end-of-life fluorescent lamps (excluding backlights) was analyzed under three scenarios for Kyoto, Japan for 2003: the present condition scenario, the improved recycling scenario, and the complete recycling scenario. Under the present condition scenario, mercury flow was calculated to be 34 kg Hg for incineration, 21 kg Hg for landfill, and only 4 kg Hg for recycling. The complete recycling scenario shows a simple flow, with all mercury recycled. Under this scenario for Kyoto, we calculated that a cyclic system having 47 kg of mercury (3.5 tonnes Hg in Japan) could be established if all fluorescent lamps (excluding those stored in residences) were collected and recycled. Mercury is a HHW priority chemical, and we need to limit its use and establish a closed-loop system. There are currently no regulations to achieve this, and the management of most HHWs is left to local governments. Therefore, products are disposed of in landfills or incinerated, except for some that are voluntarily collected and recycled. In order to recycle all of the waste fluorescent lamps, we must have a complete recycling system that has a high rate of public participation in collection. We also must have a closed

Marketing Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, O. Gene

1995-01-01

Relates the marketing concept to library reference services. Highlights include a review of the literature and an overview of marketing, including research, the marketing mix, strategic plan, marketing plan, and marketing audit. Marketing principles are applied to reference services through the marketing mix elements of product, price, place, and…

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

Sustainable biomass production for energy in Sri Lanka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perera, K.K.C.K.; Rathnasiri, P.G.; Sugathapala, A.G.T.

2003-01-01

The present study concentrates mainly on the estimation of land availability for biomass production and the estimation of sustainable biomass production potential for energy. The feasible surplus land area available for bioenergy plantation is estimated assuming two land availability scenarios (Scenarios 1 and 2) and three biomass demand scenarios (IBD Scenario, SBD Scenario and FBD Scenario). Scenario 1 assumes that 100% of the surplus area available in base year 1997 will be suitable for plantation without considering population growth and food production and that 75% of this surplus land is feasible for plantation. Scenario 2 assumes that future food requirement will grow by 20% and the potential surplus area will be reduced by that amount. The incremental biomass demand scenario (IBD Scenario) assumes that only the incremental demand for biomass in the year 2010 with respect to the base year 1997 has to be produced from new plantation. The sustainable biomass demand scenario (SBD Scenario) assumes that the total sustainable supply of biomass in 1997 is deducted from the future biomass demand in 2010 and only the balance is to be met by new plantation. The full biomass demand scenario (FBD Scenario) assumes that the entire projected biomass demand of the year 2010 needs to be produced from new plantation. The total feasible land area for the scenarios IBD-1, 1BD-2, SBD-1, SBD-2, FBD-1 and FBD-2 are approximately 0.96, 0.66, 0.80, 0.94, 0.60 and 0.30 Mha, respectively. Biomass production potential is estimated by selecting appropriate plant species, plantation spacing and productivity level. The results show that the total annual biomass production in the country could vary from 2 to 9.9 Mt. With the production option (i.e. 1.5 mx1.5 m spacing plantation with fertilizer application) giving the highest yield, the total biomass production for energy under IBD Scenario would be 9.9 Mt yr -1 for Scenario 1 and 6.7 Mt yr -1 for Scenario 2. Under SBD Scenario, the

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meghan O’Brien

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption—e.g., toward forest footprints—and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability—e.g., toward land use targets—in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares. To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the Åland Islands in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Child, Michael; Nordling, Alexander; Breyer, Christian

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland Islands is possible by 2030. • 100% RE-based domestic production can be achieved with or without reliance on imported energy. • A highly electrified transport sector results in lower annualised energy system costs. • Highly electrified transport may promote employment and international partnerships. • Energy system scenarios were simulated for the Åland Islands with the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. - Abstract: A fully sustainable energy system for the Åland islands is possible by 2030 based on the assumptions in this study. Several scenarios were constructed for the future energy system based on various combinations of domestic production of wind and solar photovoltaic power, expanded domestic energy storage solutions, electrified transport, and strategic energy carrier trade. Hourly analysis of scenarios using the EnergyPLAN tool shows that annualised costs of operating a future sustainable energy system for the year 2030 range between 225 and 247 M€/a compared to 229 M€/a for the business as usual case. However, this result is highly dependent on how vehicle and battery costs are accounted. A scenario featuring a highly electrified transport sector, including a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic forms of mobility, was among the most cost competitive solutions due to high levels of flexibility and electric storage harnessed in the energy system. In this scenario cost reductions were achieved as high capacities of electric vehicle battery storage resulted in less need for seasonal storage and synthetic fuel production in the form of Power-to-Gas technologies and offshore wind power capacity. Results also indicate that 100% renewable energy-based domestic energy production can be achieved in Åland, with or without reliance on imported energy carriers, such as sustainable biofuels or electricity. A demonstration of a highly electrified transport sector may also offer Åland society

DEVELOPMENT OF THE REFERENCE MATERIALS PRODUCTION BRANCH IN THE JOINT STOCK COMPANY "THE GULIDOV KRASNOYARSK NON-FERROUS METALS PLANT"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. A. Shatnykh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the development of the branch for the reference materials production in the Joint Stock Company "The Gulidov Krasnoyarsk Non-Ferrous Metals Plant" (JSC "Krastsvetmet". Here the most important workings for reference materials including the work for the London precious metal exchange, current and future works are stated.

Identification of scenarios in the safety assessment of a deep geological site for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escalier des Orres, P.; Devillers, C.; Cernes, A.

1990-01-01

The selection and qualification procedure of a site for radioactive wastes disposal in a deep geologic formation, has begun in France in the early eighties. The public authorities, on ANDRA's proposal, has preselected in 1987 four sites, each of them corresponding to a type of geologic formations (granite, clay, salt and shale). Within two years, one of these sites will be chosen for the location of an underground laboratory. The safety analysis for the site's qualification uses evolution scenarios of the repository and its environment, chosen according to a deterministic method. With an appropriate detail level, are defined a reference scenario and scenario with random events. 4 refs., 1 tab [fr

Case study: Evaluation of a scenario for the reuse of structures in the production area at Fernald

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, M.J.; Folga, S.; Janke, R.J.; Kozlowski, D.R.

1995-01-01

The potential for the reuse of uncontaminated structures at federal facilities that are being remediated should be evaluated. Although various factors often limit the viability of such reuse, it may be economically attractive to reuse selected structures. Consideration of a hypothetical reuse scenario for the US Department of Energy's Fernald, Ohio facility shows that the reuse of selected buildings that were not significantly contaminated by production activities at the site may be considerably less expensive than the construction of new ones. The cost of removal of existing buildings is a major factor influencing the relative advantages of these two options. For Fernald, no need for the facility's buildings has been identified; however, the reuse of structures may be a viable option at other facilities

Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

2007-01-01

Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purkus, Alexandra; Barth, Volker

2011-01-01

Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

Feasibility study on production of a matrix reference material for cyanobacterial toxins.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingdale, Christie; Thomas, Krista; Lewis, Nancy; Békri, Khalida; McCarron, Pearse; Quilliam, Michael A

2015-07-01

The worldwide increase in cyanobacterial contamination of freshwater lakes and rivers is of great concern as many cyanobacteria produce potent hepatotoxins and neurotoxins (cyanotoxins). Such toxins pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems, livestock, and drinking water supplies. In addition, dietary supplements prepared from cyanobacteria can pose a risk to consumers if they contain toxins. Analytical monitoring for toxins in the environment and in consumer products is essential for the protection of public health. Reference materials (RMs) are an essential tool for the development and validation of analytical methods and are necessary for ongoing quality control of monitoring operations. Since the availability of appropriate RMs for cyanotoxins has been very limited, the present study was undertaken to examine the feasibility of producing a cyanobacterial matrix RM containing various cyanotoxins. The first step was large-scale culturing of various cyanobacterial cultures that produce anatoxins, microcystins, and cylindrospermopsins. After harvesting, the biomass was lyophilized, blended, homogenized, milled, and bottled. The moisture content and physical characteristics were assessed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the production process. Toxin levels were measured by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry and ultraviolet detection. The reference material was found to be homogeneous for toxin content. Stability studies showed no significant degradation of target toxins over a period of 310 days at temperatures up to +40 °C except for the anatoxin-a, which showed some degradation at +40 °C. These results show that a fit-for-purpose matrix RM for cyanotoxins can be prepared using the processes and techniques applied in this work.

Search for lightest neutralino and stau pair production in light gravitino scenarios with stau NLSP

CERN Document Server

Abreu, P.; Adye, T.; Adzic, P.; Alderweireld, T.; Alekseev, G.D.; Alemany, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P.P.; Almehed, S.; Amaldi, U.; Amato, S.; Anassontzis, E.G.; Andersson, P.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.D.; Arnoud, Y.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J.E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Bambade, P.; Barao, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, D.Yu.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.H.; Begalli, M.; Beilliere, P.; Belokopytov, Yu.; Belous, K.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Bertini, D.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Bianchi, F.; Bigi, M.; Bilenky, Mikhail S.; Bizouard, M.A.; Bloch, D.; Blom, H.M.; Bonesini, M.; Bonivento, W.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P.S.L.; Borgland, A.W.; Borisov, G.; Bosio, C.; Botner, O.; Boudinov, E.; Bouquet, B.; Bourdarios, C.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Boyko, I.; Bozovic, I.; Bozzo, M.; Branchini, P.; Brenke, T.; Brenner, R.A.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J.M.; Bugge, L.; Buran, T.; Burgsmueller, T.; Buschmann, P.; Cabrera, S.; Caccia, M.; Calvi, M.; Camacho Rozas, A.J.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Carroll, L.; Caso, C.; Castillo Gimenez, M.V.; Cattai, A.; Cavallo, F.R.; Chabaud, V.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, P.; Chaussard, L.; Checchia, P.; Chelkov, G.A.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chochula, P.; Chorowicz, V.; Chudoba, J.; Collins, P.; Colomer, M.; Contri, R.; Cortina, E.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Cowell, J.H.; Crawley, H.B.; Crennell, D.; Crosetti, G.; Cuevas Maestro, J.; Czellar, S.; Damgaard, G.; Davenport, M.; Da Silva, W.; Deghorain, A.; Della Ricca, G.; Delpierre, P.; Demaria, N.; De Angelis, A.; De Boer, W.; De Brabandere, S.; De Clercq, C.; De Lotto, B.; De Min, A.; De Paula, L.; Dijkstra, H.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Dolbeau, J.; Doroba, K.; Dracos, M.; Drees, J.; Dris, M.; Duperrin, A.; Durand, J.D.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ekspong, G.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Engel, J.P.; Erzen, B.; Espirito, M.; Harris, Elisabeth Falk; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Fayot, J.; Feindt, M.; Fenyuk, A.; Ferrari, P.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrer-Ribas, E.; Fichet, S.; Firestone, A.; Fischer, P.A.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Fontanelli, F.; Franek, B.; Frodesen, A.G.; Fruehwirth, R.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Galloni, A.; Gamba, D.; Gamblin, S.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Garcia, J.; Gaspar, C.; Gaspar, M.; Gasparini, U.; Gavillet, P.; Gazis, Evangelos; Gele, D.; Ghodbane, N.; Gil Botella, Ines; Glege, F.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Gopal, G.; Gorn, L.; Gorski, M.; Guz, Yu.; Gracco, V.; Grahl, J.; Graziani, E.; Green, C.; Grimm, H.J.; Gris, P.; Grzelak, K.; Gunther, M.; Guy, J.; Hahn, F.; Hahn, S.; Haider, S.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Harris, F.J.; Hedberg, V.; Heising, S.; Hernandez, J.J.; Herquet, P.; Herr, H.; Hessing, T.L.; Heuser, J.M.; Higon, E.; Holmgren, S.O.; Holt, P.J.; Holthuizen, D.; Hoorelbeke, S.; Houlden, M.; Hrubec, J.; Huet, K.; Hultqvist, K.; Jackson, John Neil; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, P.; Janik, R.; Jarlskog, C.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Johansson, Erik Karl; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Juillot, P.; Kapusta, Frederic; Karafasoulis, K.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.C.; Keranen, R.; Kersevan, B.P.; Khomenko, B.A.; Khovansky, N.N.; Kiiskinen, A.; King, B.; Kjaer, N.J.; Klapp, O.; Klein, Hansjorg; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Koratzinos, M.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krammer, M.; Kreuter, C.; Kriznic, E.; Krstic, J.; Krumshtein, Z.; Kubinec, P.; Kucewicz, W.; Kurvinen, K.; Lamsa, J.W.; Lane, D.W.; Langefeld, P.; Lapin, V.; Laugier, J.P.; Lauhakangas, R.; Ledroit, Fabienne; Lefebure, V.; Leinonen, L.; Leisos, A.; Leitner, R.; Lenzen, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Libby, J.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lippi, I.; Loerstad, B.; Loken, J.G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez, J.M.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Mahon, J.R.; Maio, A.; Malek, A.; Malmgren, T.G.M.; Malychev, V.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Martinez-Vidal, F.; Marti i Garcia, S.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matthiae, G.; Mazik, J.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; McCubbin, M.; McKay, R.; McNulty, R.; McPherson, G.; Meroni, C.; Meyer, W.T.; Migliore, E.; Mirabito, L.; Mitaroff, W.A.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moller, Rasmus; Monig, Klaus; Monge, M.R.; Moreau, X.; Morettini, P.; Morton, G.; Muller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mulet-Marquis, C.; Muresan, R.; Murray, W.J.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Naraghi, F.; Navarria, F.L.; Navas, Sergio; Nawrocki, K.; Negri, P.; Neufeld, N.; Neumeister, N.; Nicolaidou, R.; Nielsen, B.S.; Nikolenko, M.; Nomokonov, V.; Normand, A.; Nygren, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevsky, A.G.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Orazi, G.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Pain, R.; Paiva, R.; Palacios, J.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Papageorgiou, K.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Pegoraro, M.; Peralta, L.; Pernicka, M.; Perrotta, A.; Petridou, C.; Petrolini, A.; Phillips, H.T.; Piana, G.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Pol, M.E.; Polok, G.; Poropat, P.; Pozdniakov, V.; Privitera, P.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Rahmani, H.; Rakoczy, D.; Ratoff, P.N.; Read, Alexander L.; Rebecchi, P.; Redaelli, Nicola Giuseppe; Regler, M.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.B.; Resvanis, L.K.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rinaudo, G.; Rohne, O.; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Rosenberg, E.I.; Rosinsky, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ruiz, A.; Saarikko, H.; Sacquin, Y.; Sadovsky, A.; Sajot, G.; Salt, J.; Sampsonidis, D.; Sannino, M.; Schneider, H.; Schwemling, P.; Schwickerath, U.; Schyns, M.A.E.; Scuri, Fabrizio; Seager, P.; Sedykh, Yu.; Segar, A.M.; Sekulin, R.; Shellard, R.C.; Sheridan, A.; Siebel, M.; Silvestre, R.; Simard, L.; Simonetto, F.; Sisakian, A.N.; Skaali, T.B.; Smadja, G.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, G.R.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Spiriti, E.; Sponholz, P.; Squarcia, S.; Stampfer, D.; Stanescu, C.; Stanic, S.; Stapnes, S.; Stevenson, K.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Strub, R.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Tabarelli, T.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Thomas, J.; Tilquin, A.; Timmermans, Jan; Tkachev, L.G.; Todorova, S.; Toet, D.Z.; Tomaradze, A.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortora, L.; Transtromer, G.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Troncon, C.; Tsirou, A.; Turluer, M.L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tzamarias, S.; Ueberschaer, B.; Ullaland, O.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallazza, E.; Van Apeldoorn, G.W.; Van Dam, Piet; Van Eldik, J.; Van Lysebetten, A.; Van Vulpen, I.; Vassilopoulos, N.; Vegni, G.; Ventura, L.; Venus, W.; Verbeure, F.; Verlato, M.; Vertogradov, L.S.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vlasov, E.; Vodopianov, A.S.; Vollmer, C.; Voulgaris, G.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Walck, C.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.H.; Wilkinson, G.R.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Wolf, G.; Yi, J.; Yushchenko, O.; Zaitsev, A.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zevgolatakos, E.; Zimine, N.I.; Zucchelli, G.C.; Zumerle, G.

1999-01-01

Promptly decaying lightest neutralinos and long-lived staus are searched for in the context of light gravitino scenarios. It is assumed that the stau is the next to lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP) and that the lightest neutralino is the next to NLSP (NNLSP). Data collected with the Delphi detector at centre-of-mass energies from 161 to 183~\\GeV\\ are analysed. No evidence of the production of these particles is found. Hence, lower mass limits for both kinds of particles are set at 95\\% C.L.. The mass of gaugino-like neutralinos is found to be greater than 71.5 GeV/$c^2$. In the search for long-lived stau, masses less than 70.0 to 77.5~\\GeVcc\\ are excluded for gravitino masses from 10 to 150~\\eVcc . Combining this search with the searches for stable heavy leptons and Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model staus a lower limit of 68.5~\\GeVcc\\ may be set for the stau mass

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc Scenario with Observations of FR II Sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek, E-mail: krusinek@camk.edu.pl [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland)

2017-10-12

The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R){sup 2} dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

Vehicle Reference Generator for Collision-Free Trajectories in Hazardous Maneuvers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cuauhtémoc Acosta Lúa

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a reference generator for ground vehicles, based on potential fields adapted to the case of vehicular dynamics. The reference generator generates signals to be tracked by the vehicle, corresponding to a trajectory avoiding collisions with obstacles. This generator integrates artificial forces of potential fields of the object surrounding the vehicle. The reference generator is used with a controller to ensure the tracking of the accident-free reference. This approach can be used for vehicle autonomous driving or for active control of manned vehicles. Simulation results, presented for the autonomous driving, consider a scenario inspired by the so-called moose (or elk test, with the presence of other collaborative vehicles.

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

The production and certification of a plutonium equal-atom reference material: NBL CRM 128

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford, D.W.

1990-07-01

This report describes the design, production, and certification of the New Brunswick Laboratory plutonium equal-atom certified reference material (CRM), NBL CRM 128. The primary use of this CRM is for the determination of bias corrections encountered in the operation of a mass spectrometer. This reference material is available to the US Department of Energy contractor-operated and government-operated laboratories, as well as to the international nuclear safeguards community. The absolute, or unbiased, certified value for the CRM's Pu-242/Pu-239 ratio is 1.00063 ± 0.00026 (95% confidence interval) as of October 1, 1984. This value was obtained through the quantitative blending of high-purity, chemically and isotopically characterized separated isotopes, as well as through intercomparisons of CRM samples with calibration mixtures using thermal ionization mass spectrometry. 32 tabs

Production and certification of reference materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarkis, Jorge Eduardo de S.; Kakazu, Mauricio H.; Hespanhol, Emilio Carlos B.; Martins, Elaine Arantes J.

1996-01-01

The reference materials used in analytical chemistry permit us to evaluate correctly the analytical producers as well as experimental set up. U 3 O 8 was produced at IPEN to be used as a secondary standard. We present the first results on U 3 O 8 and discuss the method, preparation, and characterization of that oxide. (author)

Effective dose evaluation of NORM-added consumer products using Monte Carlo simulations and the ICRP computational human phantoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyun Cheol; Yoo, Do Hyeon; Testa, Mauro; Shin, Wook-Geun; Choi, Hyun Joon; Ha, Wi-Ho; Yoo, Jaeryong; Yoon, Seokwon; Min, Chul Hee

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential hazard of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) added consumer products. Using the Monte Carlo method, the radioactive products were simulated with ICRP reference phantom and the organ doses were calculated with the usage scenario. Finally, the annual effective doses were evaluated as lower than the public dose limit of 1mSv y(-1) for 44 products. It was demonstrated that NORM-added consumer products could be quantitatively assessed for the safety regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

The impact of power negotiations on nursing students learning processes in simulation scenario debriefing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frandsen, Anne; Topperzer, Martha; Sejr Olsen, Pernille

element to obtain critical reflection and learning (3). During debriefing students and facilitators jointly explore what happened in the scenario, and what should be focus of the prospective learning process (4). The aim of this paper is to explore how the negotiations of power (5) in the simulation...... scenario debriefing have an impact on the learning process for novice nursing students. References: Zapko et al 2015: Interdisciplinary Disaster Drill Simulation: Laying the Groundwork for further Research. Nurse Education Perspective Nov. Dec. 36(6):379-82 Motola et al 2013: Simulation in healthcare......Clinical simulation in nursing improves student`s ability to critical thinking, clinical judgement and clinical decision- making(1). The key elements to success are planning, pre- briefing, engagement, a realistic scenario with interruptions and debriefing (2). Debriefing is highlighted as the key...

Scenarios for a urban energy transition. Actors, regulations, technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debizet, Gilles; Blanco, Sylvie; Buclet, Nicolas; Forest, Fabrice; Gauthier, Caroline; La Branche, Stephane; Menanteau, Philippe; Schneuwly, Patrice; Tabourdeau, Antoine

2016-01-01

Cities concentrate populations, consumptions, levers of actions, and are places of various experiments for energy transition. This book aims at giving an overview of possible scenarios of development of renewable energies in urban context. It is based on interviews of actors of the energy, building and urban planning sectors by researchers in town planning, management, technology, political and economic sciences. The authors examine what would occur if large companies would manage entire quarters, if local authorities would supervise production and supply, if the State would take control of all fields of action again, or if consumer cooperatives would exchange energy and pool productions. In its different chapters, the book presents four scenarios of energy coordination in urban context by 2040, discuss energy transition in urban spaces, discuss the perspectives of evolution towards more autonomous cities and quarters from an energetic point of view, and discuss business models and urban energetic innovations

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Lombardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

The use of physical indicators for industrial energy demand scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schenk, Niels J.; Moll, Henri C.

2007-01-01

Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. (author)

How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

2009-07-01

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of

The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

2016-01-01

This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ninna Reitzel Jensen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

The energy consumption of private households 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofer, P.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in Swiss private households for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. In particular, the scenarios are examined for various sensitivities: high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report contains a large number of data-tables and graphical representations

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

OpenAIRE

Cristina Montiel Molina; Luis Galiana-Martín

2016-01-01

Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propag...

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies (NDA); Scientific Opinion on Dietary Reference Values for energy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetens, Inge

Following a request from the European Commission, the Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies (NDA) derived dietary reference values for energy, which are provided as average requirements (ARs) of specified age and sex groups. For children and adults, total energy expenditure (TEE...

Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. Zusammenfassung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Repenning, Julia; Emele, Lukas [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Braungardt, Sibylle; Eichhammer, Wolfgang [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2014-04-15

The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

1998-01-01

This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

Production of Working Reference Materials for the Capability Evaluation Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillip D. Noll, Jr.; Robert S. Marshall

1999-03-01

Nondestructive waste assay (NDA) methods are employed to determine the mass and activity of waste-entrained radionuclides as part of the National TRU (Trans-Uranic) Waste Characterization Program. In support of this program the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Mixed Waste Focus Area developed a plan to acquire capability/performance data on systems proposed for NDA purposes. The Capability Evaluation Project (CEP) was designed to evaluate the NDA systems of commercial contractors by subjecting all participants to identical tests involving 55 gallon drum surrogates containing known quantities and distributions of radioactive materials in the form of sealed-source standards, referred to as working reference materials (WRMs). Although numerous Pu WRMs already exist, the CEP WRM set allows for the evaluation of the capability and performance of systems with respect to waste types/configurations which contain increased amounts of {sup 241}Am relative to weapons grade Pu, waste that is dominantly {sup 241}Am, as well as wastes containing various proportions of depleted uranium. The CEP WRMs consist of a special mixture of PuO{sub 2}/AmO{sub 2} (IAP) and diatomaceous earth (DE) or depleted uranium (DU) oxide and DE and were fabricated at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The IAP WRMS are contained inside a pair of welded inner and outer stainless steel containers. The DU WRMs are singly contained within a stainless steel container equivalent to the outer container of the IAP standards. This report gives a general overview and discussion relating to the production and certification of the CEP WRMs.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Conggang Yu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an experiment and a product design case are conducted to verify the feasibility of the new pattern. Ultimately, we will conclude that the data-driven product design has two patterns: one is the concrete data supporting the product design, namely “product–data–product” pattern, and the second is based on the value of the abstract data for product design, namely “data–product–data” pattern. Through the data, users are involving themselves in the design development process. Data and product form a huge network, and data plays a role of connection or node. So the essence of the design is to find a new connection based on element, and to find a new node based on category.

Product design pattern based on big data-driven scenario

OpenAIRE

Conggang Yu; Lusha Zhu

2016-01-01

This article discusses about new product design patterns in the big data era, gives designer a new rational thinking way, and is a new way to understand the design of the product. Based on the key criteria of the product design process, category, element, and product are used to input the data, which comprises concrete data and abstract data as an enlargement of the criteria of product design process for the establishment of a big data-driven product design pattern’s model. Moreover, an exper...

Reference Japanese man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Giichiro

1985-01-01

To make real and accurate dose assessment method so far, it is necessitated to provide ''Reference Japanese Man'' based on anotomical, physiological and biochemical data of Japanese people instead of the Reference Man presented in ICRP Publications 23 and 30. This review describes present status of researched for the purpose of establishing of Reference Japanese Man. The Reference Japanese Man is defined as a male or female adult who lives in Japan with a Japanese life-style and food custom. His stature and body weight, and the other data was decided as mean values of male or female people of Japan. As for food custom, Japanese people take significantly smaller amount of meat and milk products than Western people, while larger intake amount of cereals and marine products such as fish or seaweeds. Weight of organs is a principal factor for internal dose assessment and mean values for living Japanese adult has been investigated and the value employable for dose assessment for organs and tissues are shown. To employ these values of Reference Japanese Man, it should be taken into account of age. Metabolic parameters should also be considered. Iodine metabolism in Japanese is quite different from that of Western people. The above-mentioned data are now tentatively employing in modification of table of MIRD method and others. (Takagi, S.)

Eco-efficiency of intensification scenarios for milk production in New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basset-Mens, Claudine; Ledgard, Stewart; Boyes, Mark [AgResearch Limited, Ruakura Research Centre, East Street, Private Bag 3123, Hamilton (New Zealand)

2009-04-15

New Zealand (NZ) dairy farms used to be the lowest input and most efficient dairy farms of the world. However, intensification of the traditional pasture-based system has occurred over the last decade and has not always been accompanied by increased efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to produce an updated reference of the eco-efficiency of NZ dairy farm systems and to analyse the implications of intensification on their eco-efficiency. Results for an average NZ dairy farm system were compared with those for three dairy farmlet systems representing a wide range in intensification practices. A low input system (LI) (no N fertiliser, no brought-in feed supplement, stocking rate of 2.3 cows/ha) was compared with an N-fertilised farm system (NF) (170 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year, 3 cows/ha) representing a first level of intensification and with an N-fertilised and maize silage supplemented system (NFMS) (170 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year, 13 t DM maize silage/ha/year, 5.2 cows/ha), representing a possible future intensification option. Their eco-efficiency in terms of milk production and land use was compared using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. NZ dairy farm systems rely on favourable temperate climate conditions and long-term perennial ryegrass/white clover pasture, to achieve eco-efficient milk production and land use compared to European systems. However, intensification of NZ dairy farms was shown to be detrimental to their eco-efficiency in terms both of milk production and land use functions and could greatly reduce their advantage compared to European systems. The eco-efficiency of LI was very high whatever the functional unit which is remarkable from an LCA perspective. NF and NFMS had a similar eco-efficiency except for energy use which corresponded to the most critical hot spot of NFMS. All studied NZ systems presented some areas for improvement where some new technologies available for dairy farms might play a promising role in the future. Finally, it

EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA); Scientific Opinion on Dietary reference values for water

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetens, Inge

This Opinion of the EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA) deals with the setting of dietary reference values for water for specific age groups. Adequate Intakes (AI) have been defined derived from a combination of observed intakes in population groups with desirable...

Detailed Modelling of the Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios with Demand Response Technologies in the Heating and Cooling Sector: A Case Study for Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Calise

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Energy policies accompanying the transition towards a sustainable development process must be supported by technical analyses in which future energy scenarios are modeled and evaluated. This paper analyzes possible decarbonization scenarios in Italy for the year 2050. They envisage high electrification of transports and residential buildings, high use of renewable energies, and a modal shift towards public transport. The energy scenarios are evaluated using a software program, EnergyPLAN, starting from a reference model developed for the year 2014. Special attention has been given to the modeling of data that are unavailable in the literature, such as the time profile of heating and cooling demands, obtained with the degree-days method and validated by elaborating the results of the modeling of the residential building stock, this latter was dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. The results show that to obtain a significant decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, it is necessary not only to promote a deeper penetration of renewable sources, but also their integration with other technologies (cogeneration, trigeneration, power-to-heat systems, thermal storage, vehicle-to-grid operations. In fact, renewables technologies alone can raise some critical issues, such as excess and/or shortage of electricity production and non-sustainable exploitation of biomass.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Integrated method to optimize well connection and platform placement on a multi-reservoir scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sousa, Sergio Henrique Guerra de; Madeira, Marcelo Gomes; Franca, Martha Salles [Halliburton, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mota, Rosane Oliveira; Silva, Edilon Ribeiro da; King, Vanessa Pereira Spear [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2012-07-01

This paper describes a workflow created to optimize the platform placement and well-platform connections on a multi reservoir scenario using an integrated reservoir simulator paired with an optimization engine. The proposed methodology describes how a new platform, being incorporated into a pre-existing asset, can be better used to develop newly-discovered fields, while helping increase the production of existing fields by sharing their production load. The sharing of production facilities is highly important in Brazilian offshore assets because of their high price (a few billion dollars per facility) and the fact that total production is usually limited to the installed capacity of liquid processing, which is an important constraint on high water-cut well production rates typical to this region. The case study asset used to present the workflow consists of two deep water oil fields, each one developed by its own production platform, and a newly-discovered field with strong aquifer support that will be entirely developed with a new production platform. Because this new field should not include injector wells owing to the strong aquifer presence, the idea is to consider reconnecting existing wells from the two pre-existing fields to better use the production resources. In this scenario, the platform location is an important optimization issue, as a balance between supporting the production of the planned wells on the new field and the production of re-routed wells from the existing fields must be reached to achieve improved overall asset production. If the new platform is too far away from any interconnected production well, pressure-drop issues along the pipeline might actually decrease production from the existing fields rather than augment it. The main contribution of this work is giving the reader insights on how to model and optimize these complex decisions to generate high-quality scenarios. (author)

Growth scenarios with thorium fuel cycles in pressurised heavy water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balakrishnan, M.R.

1991-01-01

Since India has generous deposits of thorium, the availability of thorium will not be a limiting factor in any growth scenario. It is fairly well accepted that the best system for utilisation of thorium is the heavy water reactor. The growth scenarios possible using thorium in HWRs are considered. The base has been taken as 50,000 tons of natural uranium and practically unlimited thorium. The reference reactor has been assumed to be the PHWR, and all other growth scenarios are compared with the growth scenario provided by the once-through natural cycle in the PHWR. Two reactor types have been considered: the heavy water moderated, heavy water cooled, pressure tube reactor, known as the PHWR; and the heavy water moderated and cooled pressure vessel kind, similar to the ATUCHA reactor in Argentina. For each reactor, a number of different fuel cycles have been studied. All these cycles have been based on thorium. These are: the self-sustaining equilibrium thorium cycle (SSET); the high conversion ratio high burnup cycle; and the once through thorium cycle (OTT). The cycle have been initiated in two ways: one is by starting the cycle with natural uranium, reprocessing the spent fuel to obtain plutonium, and use that plutonium to initiate the thorium cycle; the other is to enrich the uranium to about 2-3% U-235 (the so-called Low Enriched Uranium or LEU), and use the LEU to initiate the thorium cycle. Both cases have been studied, and growth scenarios have been projected for every one of the possible combinations. (author). 1 tab

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Modelling the influence of changing climate in present and future marine eutrophication impacts from spring barley production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, Monia

2017-01-01

Nitrate concentration and runoff are site-specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. As such, nitrate emissions may increase in the future due to climate change, affecting the marine eutrophication mechanism. In this context, and considering the case of spring barley production...... of different normalisation references when comparing future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios with current production systems. A parameterised characterisation model was developed to gauge the influence of future climatic-driven pressures on the marine eutrophication impact pathway. Spatial differentiation...

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Python pocket reference, version 2.4

CERN Document Server

Lutz, Mark

2005-01-01

Python is optimized for quality, productivity, portability, and integration. Hundreds of thousands of Python developers around the world rely on Python for general-purpose tasks, Internet scripting, systems programming, user interfaces, and product customization. Available on all major computing platforms, including commercial versions of Unix, Linux, Windows, and Mac OS X, Python is portable, powerful and remarkable easy to use. With its convenient, quick-reference format, Python Pocket Reference, 3rd Edition is the perfect on-the-job reference. More importantly, it's now been refreshed

vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

2016-01-01

The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, Claude; Bacher, Pierre

2011-01-01

This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies (NDA); Scientific Opinion on Dietary Reference Values for protein

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tetens, Inge

This opinion of the EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition and Allergies (NDA) deals with the setting of Dietary Reference Values (DRVs) for protein. The Panel concludes that a Population Reference Intake (PRI) can be derived from nitrogen balance studies. Several health outcomes possibly...... for growth and maintenance. For pregnancy, an intake of 1, 9 and 28 g/d in the first, second and third trimesters, respectively, is proposed in addition to the PRI for non-pregnant women. For lactation, a protein intake of 19 g/d during the first six months, and of 13 g/d after six months, is proposed...

A blended learning scenario to enhance learners’ oral production skills

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hee-Kyung Kim

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application may be beneficial to the learner in terms of pronunciation. Our methodological approach is based on task resolution (Ellis, 2003 in peer-to-peer collaborative settings and the spaced repetition concept (Ebbinghaus, 1885, cited by Dempster, 1988. The outcomes of our study show that the learners appreciated the possibility to interact with native speakers but most of them preferred synchronous communication for training their pronunciation skills.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake?The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions.Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by

In-Stream Sediment Dynamics for predicted environmental concentration calculations of plant protection products in the FOCUSSW Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

2016-04-01

The exposure assessment for the EU registration procedure of plant protection products (PPP), which is based on the 'Forum for the co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their use' (FOCUS), currently considers only periods of 12-16 months for the exposure assessment in surface water bodies. However, in a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that in a multi-year exposure assessment, the accumulation of PPP substances in river sediment may be a relevant process. Therefore, the EFSA proposed to introduce a sediment accumulation factor in order to account for enrichment of PPP substances over several years in the sediment. The calculation of this accumulation factor, however, would consider degradation in sediment as the only dissipation path, and does not take into account riverine sediment dynamics. In order to assess the influence of deposition and the possible extent of substance accumulation in the sediment phase, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was employed for an assessment of in-stream sediment dynamics of the FOCUS stream scenarios. The model was parameterized according to the stream characteristics of the FOCUS scenarios and was run over a period of 20 years. The results show that with the distribution of grain sizes and the ranges of flow velocity in the FOCUS streams the main sediment process in the streams is transport. First modeling results suggest that about 80% of the eroded sediment mass from the adjacent field are transported to the downstream end of the stream and out of the system, while only about 20% are deposited in the river bed. At the same time, only about 30% of in-stream sediment mass stems from the adjacent field and is associated with PPP substance, while the remaining sediment consists of the substance-free base sediment concentration regarded in the scenarios. With this, the hydraulic modelling approach is able to support the development of a meaningful sediment accumulation factor by

Nervous systems and scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Nicholas D

2016-01-05

Older evolutionary scenarios for the origin of vertebrates often gave nervous systems top billing in accordance with the notion that a big-brained Homo sapiens crowned a tree of life shaped mainly by progressive evolution. Now, however, tree thinking positions all extant organisms equidistant from the tree's root, and molecular phylogenies indicate that regressive evolution is more common than previously suspected. Even so, contemporary theories of vertebrate origin still focus on the nervous system because of its functional importance, its richness in characters for comparative biology, and its central position in the two currently prominent scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition, which grew out of the markedly neurocentric annelid and enteropneust theories of the nineteenth century. Both these scenarios compare phyla with diverse overall body plans. This diversity, exacerbated by the scarcity of relevant fossil data, makes it challenging to establish plausible homologies between component parts (e.g. nervous system regions). In addition, our current understanding of the relation between genotype and phenotype is too preliminary to permit us to convert gene network data into structural features in any simple way. These issues are discussed here with special reference to the evolution of nervous systems during proposed transitions from invertebrates to vertebrates. © 2015 The Author(s).

Energy reference forecast for 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlesinger, Michael; Lutz, Christian

2014-01-01

The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has commissioned three reputed institutions to prepare an energy reference forecast as well as a target scenario up to the year 2050. The results of this survey evidence a substantial need for political action if the goals of the Federal Government's energy concept are to be achieved as planned. In view of the wide range of interests among the players involved as well as the complexity of the demands facing the political leadership from diverse areas of life it appears unlikely that the targets laid down in the energy concept can be realised.

Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

2017-07-01

Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

2006-01-01

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

PLAN 2003. Costs for management of the radioactive waste products from nuclear power production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-06-01

. The latter describes the selection of the sites where SKB wishes to proceed with investigations in conjunction with the site investigation phase. The site selections are also reflected in the calculation in that the reference scenario includes a siting of the deep repository to one of the selected sites. The choice has hereby been made on the basis of what best illustrates various cost aspects and should not be regarded as a prioritization in other respects. SKB proposes that deep disposal be implemented in stages, starting with an initial stage 1 in which approximately 200-400 canisters are deposited. This will be followed by an evaluation before the start of the regular operation. As a basis for determining fees and the need for guarantees, three amounts are to be reported to the authority: basis for fees, basis for basic amount, supplementary amount. The basis for fees is supposed to include all costs for managing and disposing of the spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste that is calculated to have been produced up to and including the fee year, i.e. 2004, or during at least 25 years of operation of the reactors. The amount must also include costs for decommissioning and dismantling the reactors and for conducting the necessary research and development. The basis for fees also includes a supplementary amount for uncertainties up to a certain level. The basis for basic amount is supposed to include the above costs, but is limited, with regard to spent fuel and radioactive waste, to the waste quantities estimated to exist at the end of the current year, i.e. at 31 December 2003. This amount provides a basis for determining the size of Guarantee I. The supplementary amount comprises the difference between the basis for fees and an upper limit for the amount which the reactor owner must guarantee at the present time. According to the Financing Act, the supplementary amount shall cover 'reasonable costs of additional measures due to unforeseen events'. This

The carbon budget of Pinus radiata plantations in south-western Australia under 4 climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simioni, G.; Ritson, P.; McGrath, J.; Dumbrell, I.; Copeland, B.

2009-01-01

The future stem wood production and net ecosystem production of Pinus radiata plantations in southwestern Australia were estimated in this modelling study, which was conducted in order to determine the potential effects of anticipated severe rainfall reductions in the region. Four climate change and emission scenarios were considered as well as simulations of the present climate. Results of the study showed that stem wood production and NEP were not significantly influenced by moderate changes in temperature. However, stem wood production and NEP decreased significantly under the most pessimistic climate change scenarios. Results of the study suggested that a trade-off between the positive effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on plant and water use efficiency and the negative impacts of decreased rainfall and increased temperatures. Changes in heterotrophic respiration lagged behind changes in plant growth. It was concluded that realistic predictions of forest production and carbon sequestration potential will require modelling tools capable of characterizing interactions between environmental variables, plant physiology and soil organic matter decomposition, as well as the potential range of climate change scenarios. 53 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

Preliminary scenarios for the release of radioactive waste from a hypothetical repository in basalt of the Columbia Plateau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.

1983-10-01

Nine release phenomena - normal flow of water, tectonic disturbance of the fracture network, intersection of a new fault with the repository, glaciation, fluvia erosion, thermomechanical disturbances, subsidence, seal failure, and drilling - give rise to 318 preliminary scenarios for the release of waste from a hypothetical high-level-waste repository in basalt. The scenarios have relative probabilities that range over several orders of magnitude. The relative probabilities provide a means of screening the scenarios for the more limited set to be subjected to consequence analysis. Lack of data and of preliminary modeling, however, lead to great uncertainties in the highly conservative probabilities assigned here. As a result, the recommendations in this report are directed at resolution of the major uncertainties in the relative probabilities of the preliminary scenarios. The resolution of some of the uncertainties should help in the selection of the suite of scenarios for final consequence analysis. 38 references, 22 figures, 18 tables

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2017-10-31

/d; Scenario 5—minimize MPW surface-water purchase from the Charleston Water System by adding supply wells and increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 12.16 Mgal/d; and Scenario 6—same as Scenario 1, but with he addition of quarterly model stress periods to simulate seasonal variations in the groundwater withdrawals. Results from the simulations indicated further decline of groundwater levels creating cones of depressions near pumping wells in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2015 and 2050 for all six scenarios.Simulation results from Scenario 1 showed an average decline of about 150 feet in the groundwater levels of the MPW production wells. Simulated hydrographs for two area observation wells illustrate the gradual decline in groundwater levels with overall changes in water-level altitudes of –92 and –33 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 121 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenarios 2 and 3 have the same pumping rates as Scenario 1 for the MPW production wells; however, a single hypothetical pumping well was added in the Middendorf aquifer near the town of Moncks Corner, South Carolina. This hypothetical pumping well has a withdrawal rate of 0.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 2 and 1.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 3. A comparison to the 2050 Scenario 1 simulation indicates groundwater altitudes for Scenarios 2 and Scenario 3 are 3 feet and 8 feet lower, respectively, at the MPW production wells.Scenario 4 simulates the maximum pumping capacity of 10.16 Mgal/d for the MPW network of production wells. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to –359 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 116 and 41 feet, respectively. Simulated differences in groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field indicate a water

Reference-shaping adaptive control by using gradient descent optimizers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baris Baykant Alagoz

Full Text Available This study presents a model reference adaptive control scheme based on reference-shaping approach. The proposed adaptive control structure includes two optimizer processes that perform gradient descent optimization. The first process is the control optimizer that generates appropriate control signal for tracking of the controlled system output to a reference model output. The second process is the adaptation optimizer that performs for estimation of a time-varying adaptation gain, and it contributes to improvement of control signal generation. Numerical update equations derived for adaptation gain and control signal perform gradient descent optimization in order to decrease the model mismatch errors. To reduce noise sensitivity of the system, a dead zone rule is applied to the adaptation process. Simulation examples show the performance of the proposed Reference-Shaping Adaptive Control (RSAC method for several test scenarios. An experimental study demonstrates application of method for rotor control.

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

2010-01-01

The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

2008-01-01

The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

Agriculture energy prospective by 2030: scenarios and action patterns; Prospective Agriculture Energie 2030: scenarios et pistes d'action

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

This paper presents and comments the main results of a work-group focused on the evolution of agriculture in France in relationship with the new energetic context. Four scenarios have been defined, corresponding to different energetic, but also social, political and economic contexts by 2030. The first one corresponds to a severe energy crisis with an emergence of regional governance. The second one corresponds to a high volatility of energy prices, an increased easing of restrictions on trade, and a decrease of public supports and subsidies for agriculture. The third one corresponds to a strong reduction of the use of phyto-sanitary products in agriculture, a continuous urban sprawl, and the prevalence of road transport. The fourth one corresponds to agriculture respectful of the environment and a good management of energy consumption. Direct and indirect energy consumptions are assessed for the four scenarios. Some general and operational objectives are thus identified

Energy consumption in industry, 1990 - 2035 - Scenarios I to IV for various sensitivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, W.; Ebert, O.; Weber, F.

2006-12-01

This comprehensive, illustrated report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the results of a study with respect to industrial energy consumption which provided scenarios for future Swiss energy consumption. Four scenarios were elaborated: Continuation of present policy, increased co-operation between state and industry, more ambitious energy policy priorities and a scenario with even more ambitious goals - the so-called '2000 Watt Society'. For each of these scenarios several variants and a selection of sub-variants were defined, including increased prices, higher gross domestic product GDP, warmer climate and various carbon levies. The specific energy consumption of 16 different industrial sectors is examined and the effects of the various scenarios on several factors are considered. Data and results are presented in tabular and graphical form. Various measures that could influence energy consumption are listed and discussed, as are the modelling methods employed and the plausibility of the results obtained

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

The energy consumption of traffic 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, M.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the traffic sector for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various energy levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. The areas examined include road, rail and air traffic as well as 'off-road' traffic. Infrastructure developments are commented on. The four scenarios are examined for various sensitivities including high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. Alternative fuels are looked at, as are further factors such as fuel tourism, pollutant emissions and costs. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report is completed with a comprehensive appendix

Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Validation scenarios. Volume 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirsky, S.M.; Hayes, J.E.; Miller, L.A.

1995-03-01

This report is the sixth volume in a series of reports describing the results of the Expert System Verification and Validation (V ampersand V) project which is jointly funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Electric Power Research Institute. The ultimate objective is the formulation of guidelines for the V ampersand V of expert systems for use in nuclear power applications. This activity was concerned with the development of a methodology for selecting validation scenarios and subsequently applying it to two expert systems used for nuclear utility applications. Validation scenarios were defined and classified into five categories: PLANT, TEST, BASICS, CODE, and LICENSING. A sixth type, REGRESSION, is a composite of the others and refers to the practice of using trusted scenarios to ensure that modifications to software did not change unmodified functions. Rationale was developed for preferring scenarios selected from the categories in the order listed and for determining under what conditions to select scenarios from other types. A procedure incorporating all of the recommendations was developed as a generalized method for generating validation scenarios. The procedure was subsequently applied to two expert systems used in the nuclear industry and was found to be effective, given that an experienced nuclear engineer made the final scenario selections. A method for generating scenarios directly from the knowledge base component was suggested

Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Validation scenarios. Volume 6