LOW COST METHODOLOGIES TO ANALYZE AND CORRECT ABNORMAL PRODUCTION DECLINE IN STRIPPER GAS WELLS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jerry James; Gene Huck; Tim Knobloch

2001-01-01

A study group of 376 Clinton Sand wells in Ohio provided data to determine the historic frequency of the problem of abnormal production declines in stripper gas wells and the causes of the abnormal production decline. Analysis of the historic frequency of the problem indicates over 70% of the wells experienced abnormal production decline. The most frequently occurring causes of abnormal production declines were determined to be fluid accumulation (46%), gas gathering restrictions (24%), and mechanical failures (23%). Data collection forms and decision trees were developed to cost-effectively diagnose the abnormal production declines and suggest corrective action. The decision trees and data collection sheets were incorporated into a procedure guide to provide stripper gas well operators with a methodology to analyze and correct abnormal production declines. The systematic methodologies and techniques developed should increase the efficiency of problem well assessment and implementation of solutions for stripper gas wells. This eight quarterly technical progress report provides a summary of the deliverables completed to date, including the results of the remediations, the procedure guide, and the technology transfer. Due to the successful results of the study to date and the efficiency of the methodology development, two to three additional wells will be selected for remediation for inclusion into the study. The results of the additional remediations will be included in the final report

Transient pressure and productivity analysis in carbonate geothermal reservoirs with changing external boundary flux

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Dongying

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a triple-medium flow model for carbonate geothermal reservoirs with an exponential external boundary flux is established. The pressure solution under constant production conditions in Laplace space is solved. The geothermal wellbore pressure change considering wellbore storage and skin factor is obtained by Stehfest numerical inversion. The well test interpretation charts and Fetkovich production decline chart for carbonate geothermal reservoirs are proposed for the first time. The proposed Fetkovich production decline curves are applied to analyze the production decline behavior. The results indicate that in carbonate geothermal reservoirs with exponential external boundary flux, the pressure derivative curve contains a triple dip, which represents the interporosity flow between the vugs or matrix and fracture system and the invading flow of the external boundary flux. The interporosity flow of carbonate geothermal reservoirs and changing external boundary flux can both slow down the extent of production decline and the same variation tendency is observed in the Fetkovich production decline curve.

Gas production and decline rates in the province of Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samson, L.A.

1999-01-01

A detailed study was conducted to evaluate the gas production decline rates in Alberta. The study examined the producing gas wells that were place in production between 1990 and 1997. Three major assumptions were used to determine the number of wells necessary to meet future market demand. These were: (1) reserves have been declining at greater rates in the past several years. The current rate of decline is 12 per cent, (2) new reserves added in future will produce at 5.1 E6M3 per year, and (3) the decline rates for new gas wells will be 27 per cent in the first year, 16 per cent in the second year, 12 per cent in the third year and thereafter. With this information, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board estimates that the annual total deliveries of gas from Alberta in the year 2002 will be 177.4 E9M3 compared to 127 E9M3 in 1997. In order to meet this supply, drilling activity for successful gas wells will have to double the 1997 rate because it is predicted that more than 6400 new wells will be needed per year to meet future demand. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 20 figs

Product differentiation by analysis of DNA melting curves during the polymerase chain reaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Ririe, K M; Rasmussen, R P; Wittwer, C T

1997-02-15

A microvolume fluorometer integrated with a thermal cycler was used to acquire DNA melting curves during polymerase chain reaction by fluorescence monitoring of the double-stranded DNA specific dye SYBR Green I. Plotting fluorescence as a function of temperature as the thermal cycler heats through the dissociation temperature of the product gives a DNA melting curve. The shape and position of this DNA melting curve are functions of the GC/AT ratio, length, and sequence and can be used to differentiate amplification products separated by less than 2 degrees C in melting temperature. Desired products can be distinguished from undesirable products, in many cases eliminating the need for gel electrophoresis. Analysis of melting curves can extend the dynamic range of initial template quantification when amplification is monitored with double-stranded DNA specific dyes. Complete amplification and analysis of products can be performed in less than 15 min.

Fines stabilizing agent reduces production decline rates in steam injected wells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castillo de Castillo, Milagros; Fernandez Andrades, Jarvi [PDVSA - Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., Caracas (Venezuela); Navarro Cornejo, Willian; Curtis, James [BJ Services do Brasil Ltda., RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The Bachaquero Lago heavy oil field, located in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, with an area of 9800 ha, in which more than 1800 wells have been drilled. The Lagunillas formation in this field is a mature, clastic, unconsolidated sandstone of Miocene age with good permeability. Clays are present, in laminated form or dispersed within the productive sandstones. Heavy oil, less than 12 deg API, is produced by cyclic steam injection. Wells are completed with cased-hole gravel packs to prevent sand and fines production. Rapid production decline rates are typically observed after the steam injection cycles, due to fines migration and plugging of the reservoir and gravel pack. This paper describes the methodology used to treat the wells with a fines stabilizing agent during the steam injection cycles in order to successfully reduce the subsequent production decline rate. Results from a multi-well pilot project are presented and analyzed. (author)

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

Global experience curves for wind farms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Turkenburg, W.C.

2005-01-01

In order to forecast the technological development and cost of wind turbines and the production costs of wind electricity, frequent use is made of the so-called experience curve concept. Experience curves of wind turbines are generally based on data describing the development of national markets, which cause a number of problems when applied for global assessments. To analyze global wind energy price development more adequately, we compose a global experience curve. First, underlying factors for past and potential future price reductions of wind turbines are analyzed. Also possible implications and pitfalls when applying the experience curve methodology are assessed. Second, we present and discuss a new approach of establishing a global experience curve and thus a global progress ratio for the investment cost of wind farms. Results show that global progress ratios for wind farms may lie between 77% and 85% (with an average of 81%), which is significantly more optimistic than progress ratios applied in most current scenario studies and integrated assessment models. While the findings are based on a limited amount of data, they may indicate faster price reduction opportunities than so far assumed. With this global experience curve we aim to improve the reliability of describing the speed with which global costs of wind power may decline

Validation and diagnostic accuracy of predictive curves for age-associated longitudinal cognitive decline in older adults

Science.gov (United States)

Bernier, Patrick J.; Gourdeau, Christian; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues; Beauchemin, Jean-Pierre; Verreault, René; Bouchard, Rémi W.; Kröger, Edeltraut; Laforce, Robert

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The Mini-Mental State Examination continues to be used frequently to screen for cognitive impairment in older adults, but it remains unclear how to interpret changes in its score over time to distinguish age-associated cognitive decline from an early degenerative process. We aimed to generate cognitive charts for use in clinical practice for longitudinal evaluation of age-associated cognitive decline. METHODS: We used data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging from 7569 participants aged 65 years or older who completed a Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline, and at 5 and 10 years later to develop a linear regression model for the Mini-Mental State Examination score as a function of age and education. Based on this model, we generated cognitive charts designed to optimize accuracy for distinguishing participants with dementia from healthy controls. We validated our model using a separate data set of 6501 participants from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center’s Uniform Data Set. RESULTS: For baseline measurement, the cognitive charts had a sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75% to 84%) and a specificity of 89% (95% CI 88% to 90%) for distinguishing healthy controls from participants with dementia. Similar sensitivities and specificities were observed for a decline over time greater than 1 percentile zone from the first measurement. Results in the validation sample were comparable, albeit with lower sensitivities. Negative predictive value was 99%. INTERPRETATION: Our innovative model, which factors in age and education, showed validity and diagnostic accuracy for determining whether older patients show abnormal performance on serial Mini-Mental State Examination measurements. Similar to growth curves used in pediatrics, cognitive charts allow longitudinal cognitive evaluation and enable prompt initiation of investigation and treatment when appropriate. PMID:29203616

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van den Wall Bake, J.D.; Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Poot, T.; Walter, A.

2009-01-01

Production costs of bio-ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil have declined continuously over the last three decades. The aims of this study are to determine underlying reasons behind these cost reductions, and to assess whether the experience curve concept can be used to describe the development of feedstock costs and industrial production costs. The analysis was performed using average national costs data, a number of prices (as a proxy for production costs) and data on annual Brazilian production volumes. Results show that the progress ratio (PR) for feedstock costs is 0.68 and 0.81 for industrial costs (excluding feedstock costs). The experience curve of total production costs results in a PR of 0.80. Cost breakdowns of sugarcane production show that all sub-processes contributed to the total, but that increasing yields have been the main driving force. Industrial costs mainly decreased because of increasing scales of the ethanol plants. Total production costs at present are approximately 340 US$/m ethanol 3 (16 US$/GJ). Based on the experience curves for feedstock and industrial costs, total ethanol production costs in 2020 are estimated between US$ 200 and 260/m 3 (9.4-12.2 US$/GJ). We conclude that using disaggregated experience curves for feedstock and industrial processing costs provide more insights into the factors that lowered costs in the past, and allow more accurate estimations for future cost developments. (author)

M-curves and symmetric products

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Indranil Biswas

2017-08-03

Aug 3, 2017 ... is bounded above by g + 1, where g is the genus of X [11]. Curves which have exactly the maximum number (i.e., genus +1) of components of the real part are called M-curves. Classifying real algebraic curves up to homeomorphism is straightforward, however, classifying even planar non-singular real ...

Research Note Testing for a decline in secondary productivity under ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We suggest that this counterintuitive result reflects the combing out, and therefore loss, of hair in the densely vegetated site. This study failed to demonstrate a decline in secondary productivity in desertified thicket and highlights the importance of replicating such studies in space and time. African Journal of Range & Forage ...

Distortion-product otoacoustic emission growth curves in neonates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tania Alves Barbosa

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background: The recording of otoacoustic emissions (OAE enabled us to prove that the cochlea is able not only to receive sounds but also to produce acoustic energy. Through the use of distortion-product otoacoustic emission measurements, the growth of the response was seen according to the intensity of the sound stimulus presented (growth curve. Objective: to determine the thresholds for the emergence of distortion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAE on frequencies of 2000 and 4000 Hz with a stimulus varying from 20 to 65dB SPL, and to establish the slope values obtained in the growth curves. Methods: 39 neonates aged 5 to 28 days without risk indicators of hearing loss were studied. The DPOAE growth curves were obtained on the frequencies from 2000 Hz and 4000 Hz with a level of intensity ranging from 20 to 65dB SPL divided into two paradigms (20 to 40dB SPL and 40-65dB SPL. Results: there was a statistically significant difference in the thresholds for the emergence of DPOAE depending on the criteria used. The thresholds were on average higher at 4000 Hz than 2000 Hz and the slope was higher on average at 2000 Hz than 4000 Hz, although not statistically significant in either case. Conclusion: the thresholds were on average 30dB SPL at 2000Hz and 35dB SPL at 4000Hz. The slope values varied between 3 and 4 on average, reaching 15 in some cases.

Entropy Production and the Pressure-Volume Curve of the Lung

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cláudio Lucas Oliveira

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate analytically the production of entropy during a breathing cycle in healthy and diseased lungs. First, we calculate entropy production in healthy lungs by applying the laws of thermodynamics to the well-known transpulmonary pressure-volume (P-V curves of the lung under the assumption that lung tissue behaves as an entropy spring-like rubber. The bulk modulus, $B$, of the lung is also derived from these calculations. Second, we extend this approach to elastic recoil disorders of the lung such as occur in pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema. These diseases are characterized by particular alterations in the P-V relationship. For example, in fibrotic lungs B increases monotonically with disease progression, while in emphysema the opposite occurs. These diseases can thus be mimicked simply by making appropriate adjustments to the parameters of the P-V curve. Using Clausius's formalism, we show that entropy production, Delta_S, is related to the hysteresis area, Delta_A, enclosed by the P-V curve during a breathing cycle, namely, Delta_S = Delta_A/T, where T is the body temperature. Although Delta_A is highly dependent on the disease, such formula applies to healthy as well as diseased lungs, regardless of the disease stage. Finally, we use ansatzs to predict analytically the entropy produced by the fibrotic and emphysematous lungs.

Lactation Curve Pattern and Prediction of Milk Production Performance in Crossbred Cows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suresh Jingar

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Data pertaining to 11728 test-day daily milk yields of normal and mastitis Karan Fries cows were collected from the institute herd and divided as mastitis and nonmastitis and parity-wise. The data of lactation curves of the normal and mastitis crossbred cows was analyzed using gamma type function. FTDMY in normal and mastitis cows showed an increasing trend from TD-1 to TD-4 and a gradual decrease (P<0.01 thereafter until the end of lactation (TD-21 in different parities. The FTDMY was maximum (peak yield in the fourth parity. Parity-wise lactation curve revealed a decrease in persistency, steeper decline in descending slope (c, and steeper increase in ascending slope (b from 1st to 5th and above parity. The higher coefficient of determination (R2 and lower root mean square error (RMSE indicated goodness and accuracy of the model for the prediction of milk prediction performance under field conditions. Clinical mastitis resulted in a significantly higher loss of milk yield (P<0.05. The FTDMY was maximum (P<0.05 in the fourth parity in comparison to the rest of parity. It is demonstrated that gamma type function can give the best fit lactation curve in normal and mastitis infected crossbred cows.

Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

Science.gov (United States)

Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

2013-01-01

Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

Validity of accessible critical nitrogen dilution curves in perennial ryegrass for seed production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gislum, René; Boelt, Birte

2009-01-01

The objectives were to test if accessible critical nitrogen dilution curves (NDCs) in rapeseed, pea, alfalfa, tall fescue, wheat, annual ryegrass and linseed could be used in grass species for seed production and to develop a critical NDC especially in grass species for seed production. The criti......The objectives were to test if accessible critical nitrogen dilution curves (NDCs) in rapeseed, pea, alfalfa, tall fescue, wheat, annual ryegrass and linseed could be used in grass species for seed production and to develop a critical NDC especially in grass species for seed production...... the NDCs in tall fescue, alfalfa, pea and rapeseed. These findings should be used to continue the interesting and necessary work on developing a NDC in grass species for seed production....

Greenhouse gas impacts of declining hydrocarbon resource quality: Depletion, dynamics, and process emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Adam Robert

This dissertation explores the environmental and economic impacts of the transition to hydrocarbon substitutes for conventional petroleum (SCPs). First, mathematical models of oil depletion are reviewed, including the Hubbert model, curve-fitting methods, simulation models, and economic models. The benefits and drawbacks of each method are outlined. I discuss the predictive value of the models and our ability to determine if one model type works best. I argue that forecasting oil depletion without also including substitution with SCPs results in unrealistic projections of future energy supply. I next use information theoretic techniques to test the Hubbert model of oil depletion against five other asymmetric and symmetric curve-fitting models using data from 139 oil producing regions. I also test the assumptions that production curves are symmetric and that production is more bell-shaped in larger regions. Results show that if symmetry is enforced, Gaussian production curves perform best, while if asymmetry is allowed, asymmetric exponential models prove most useful. I also find strong evidence for asymmetry: production declines are consistently less steep than inclines. In order to understand the impacts of oil depletion on GHG emissions, I developed the Regional Optimization Model for Emissions from Oil Substitutes (ROMEO). ROMEO is an economic optimization model of investment and production of fuels. Results indicate that incremental emissions (with demand held constant) from SCPs could be 5-20 GtC over the next 50 years. These results are sensitive to the endowment of conventional oil and not sensitive to a carbon tax. If demand can vary, total emissions could decline under a transition because the higher cost of SCPs lessens overall fuel consumption. Lastly, I study the energetic and environmental characteristics of the in situ conversion process, which utilizes electricity to generate liquid hydrocarbons from oil shale. I model the energy inputs and outputs

Statistics for products of traces of high powers of the frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves

OpenAIRE

Roditty-Gershon, Edva

2011-01-01

We study the averages of products of traces of high powers of the Frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves of genus g over a fixed finite field. We show that for increasing genus g, the limiting expectation of these products equals to the expectation when the curve varies over the unitary symplectic group USp(2g). We also consider the scaling limit of linear statistics for eigenphases of the Frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves, and show that their first few moments are Gaussian.

Industrial Learning Curves Series Production of the LHC Main Superconduting Dipoles

CERN Document Server

Fessia, Paolo; Rossi, Lucio

2007-01-01

By mid August 2006, 1160 of the 1232 of LHC main dipoles have been delivered to CERN by the three suppliers in charge of the production. The training of the staff, mostly hired just for this manufacture, and the improvement of the procedures with the acquired experience, naturally decrease the time necessary for the assembly of a unit. The aim of this paper is to apply methodologies like the cost-based learning curves and the time-based learning curves to the LHC Main Dipole production comparing the estimated learning percentage to the ones experienced in other industries. This type of analysis, already presented on 500 units is here extended to more than 1000 completed units. The work also tries to identify which type of industry presents the learning percentages that are the most similar to our case and to investigate the impact of the production strategy on the process efficiency.

Explaining environmental Kuznets curves. How pollution induces policy and new technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smulders, S.; Bretschger, L.

2000-01-01

Production often causes pollution as a by-product. Once pollution problems become too severe, regulation is introduced by political authorities which forces the economy to make a transition to cleaner production processes. We model this transition as a change in 'general purpose technology' (GPT) and investigate how it interferes with economic growth driven by quality-improvements. The model gives an explanation for the inverted U-shaped relationship found in empirical research for many pollutants, often referred to as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). We provide an analytical foundation for the claim that the rise and decline of pollution can be explained by policy-induced technology shifts. 19 refs

Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets Curve's

OpenAIRE

Shin, Inyong; Kim, Hyunho; Yamamura, Eiji

2008-01-01

We use OECD members' data to ascertain that new-born technological inventions increase the degree of inequality but that this declines as the technology disperses into the overall economy (e.g., Galor and Tsiddon, 1997; Weil, 2005). Therefore, we show explicitly that Kuznets curve does not converge to a single inverted U-curve but fluctuates through technological progress as a sine curve.

A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maggio, G.; Cacciola, G.

2009-01-01

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1 Gb/year.

The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakobsson, Kristofer; Bentley, Roger; Söderbergh, Bengt; Aleklett, Kjell

2012-01-01

There is a lively debate between ‘concerned’ and ‘unconcerned’ analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil. We critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible arguments for an unconcerned view: (1) there is a growing amount of remaining reserves; (2) there is a large amount of oil with a relatively low average production cost. These statements are unconvincing on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Oil availability is about flows rather than stocks, and average cost is not relevant in the determination of price and output. We subsequently implement a bottom-up model of regional oil production with micro-foundations in both natural science and economics. An oil producer optimizes net present value under the constraints of reservoir dynamics, technological capacity and economic circumstances. Optimal production profiles for different reservoir drives and economic scenarios are derived. The field model is then combined with a discovery model of random sampling from a lognormal field size-frequency distribution. Regional discovery and production scenarios are generated. Our approach does not rely on the simple assumptions of top-down models such as the Hubbert curve – however it leads to the same qualitative result that production peaks when a substantial fraction of the recoverable resource remains in-ground. - Highlights: ► Remaining oil reserves and average costs are of limited use in forecasting. ► We present a bottom-up approach to the modeling of regional oil production. ► Producers maximize net present value under technological and physical constraints. ► Exploration is modeled as random sampling from a lognormal field size distribution. ► Regional production starts declining before half of the recoverable oil is produced.

Whither Alberta's oil production?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purvis, R.A.; Dick, A.B.

1991-01-01

It is demonstrated how a combination of old theory (decline methods and statistics) and new technology (computer graphics) can enhance decline-curve forecasts for multi-well groupings. Production and well-count forecasts are presented for four different sized groups of aggregate production. The four examples are: the small Manville pool; the Pembina Cardium, Alberta's largest oil pool; an aggregate of all reef pools of Keg River age; and an aggregate of all wells reporting conventional oil production in the province of Alberta. In each case graphical results show the historical and forecast trends for the statistical distribution of well rates, the median well rate, the aggregated rate, and the number of producing wells. It is concluded that well rate distributions for groups ranging from 15 wells in a single pool to thousands of wells in hundreds of pools are all approximately lognormal. Lognormal well rate distributions and Lorenz graphs provide qualitative and quantitative assessments of a resource base. Decline curves for the median well rate can reveal trends masked in the aggregated rate by changing well count, operating practice and degradation of the resource base. The number of producing wells in Alberta has grown from ca 9000 in 1970 to ca 24,000 in 1988, has remained constant from 1988-1990, and will start to decline as the number of suspended or abandoned wells exceeds the number of new completions. 3 refs., 13 figs., 4 figs

Incorporating experience curves in appliance standards analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desroches, Louis-Benoit; Garbesi, Karina; Kantner, Colleen; Van Buskirk, Robert; Yang, Hung-Chia

2013-01-01

There exists considerable evidence that manufacturing costs and consumer prices of residential appliances have decreased in real terms over the last several decades. This phenomenon is generally attributable to manufacturing efficiency gained with cumulative experience producing a certain good, and is modeled by an empirical experience curve. The technical analyses conducted in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have, until recently, assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. This assumption does not reflect real market price dynamics. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards analyses for these products. Including experience curves increases the national consumer net present value of potential standard levels. In some cases a potential standard level exhibits a net benefit when considering experience, whereas without experience it exhibits a net cost. These results highlight the importance of modeling more representative market prices. - Highlights: ► Past appliance standards analyses have assumed constant equipment prices. ► There is considerable evidence of consistent real price declines. ► We incorporate experience curves for several large appliances into the analysis. ► The revised analyses demonstrate larger net present values of potential standards. ► The results imply that past standards analyses may have undervalued benefits.

Numerical Simulation of Shale Gas Production with Thermodynamic Calculations Incorporated

KAUST Repository

Urozayev, Dias

2015-01-01

to pressure relation by solving the cubic equation to improve the model. The results show that considering the compressibility of the gas will noticeably increase gas production under given reservoir conditions and slow down the production decline curve

Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brecha, Robert J.

2012-01-01

Debates about the possibility of a near-term maximum in world oil production have become increasingly prominent over the past decade, with the focus often being on the quantification of geologically available and technologically recoverable amounts of oil in the ground. Economically, the important parameter is not a physical limit to resources in the ground, but whether market price signals and costs of extraction will indicate the efficiency of extracting conventional or nonconventional resources as opposed to making substitutions over time for other fuels and technologies. We present a hybrid approach to the peak-oil question with two models in which the use of logistic curves for cumulative production are supplemented with data on projected extraction costs and historical rates of capacity increase. While not denying the presence of large quantities of oil in the ground, even with foresight, rates of production of new nonconventional resources are unlikely to be sufficient to make up for declines in availability of conventional oil. Furthermore we show how the logistic-curve approach helps to naturally explain high oil prices even when there are significant quantities of low-cost oil yet to be extracted. - Highlights: ► Extraction cost information together with logistic curves to model oil extraction. ► Two models of extraction sequence for different oil resources. ► Importance of time-delay and extraction rate limits for new resources. ► Model results qualitatively reproduce observed extraction cost dynamics. ► Confirmation of “effective” peak oil, even though resources are in ground.

Export product diversification and the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis

2016-11-01

Countries try to stabilize the demand for energy on one hand and sustain economic growth on the other, but the worsening global warming and climate change problems have put pressure on them. This paper estimates the environmental Kuznets curve over the period 1971-2010 in Turkey both in the short and the long run. For this purpose, the unit root test with structural breaks and the cointegration analysis with multiple endogenous structural breaks are used. The effects of energy consumption and export product diversification on CO 2 emissions are also controlled in the dynamic empirical models. It is observed that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in Turkey in both the short run and the long run. The positive effect on energy consumption on CO 2 emissions is also obtained in the long run. In addition, it is found that a greater product diversification of exports yields higher CO 2 emissions in the long run. Inferences and policy implications are also discussed.

Longitudinal decline in speech production in Parkinson's disease spectrum disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Ash, Sharon; Jester, Charles; York, Collin; Kofman, Olga L; Langey, Rachel; Halpin, Amy; Firn, Kim; Dominguez Perez, Sophia; Chahine, Lama; Spindler, Meredith; Dahodwala, Nabila; Irwin, David J; McMillan, Corey; Weintraub, Daniel; Grossman, Murray

2017-08-01

We examined narrative speech production longitudinally in non-demented (n=15) and mildly demented (n=8) patients with Parkinson's disease spectrum disorder (PDSD), and we related increasing impairment to structural brain changes in specific language and motor regions. Patients provided semi-structured speech samples, describing a standardized picture at two time points (mean±SD interval=38±24months). The recorded speech samples were analyzed for fluency, grammar, and informativeness. PDSD patients with dementia exhibited significant decline in their speech, unrelated to changes in overall cognitive or motor functioning. Regression analysis in a subset of patients with MRI scans (n=11) revealed that impaired language performance at Time 2 was associated with reduced gray matter (GM) volume at Time 1 in regions of interest important for language functioning but not with reduced GM volume in motor brain areas. These results dissociate language and motor systems and highlight the importance of non-motor brain regions for declining language in PDSD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experience curve for natural gas production by hydraulic fracturing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukui, Rokuhei; Greenfield, Carl; Pogue, Katie; Zwaan, Bob van der

2017-01-01

From 2007 to 2012 shale gas production in the US expanded at an astounding average growth rate of over 50%/yr, and thereby increased nearly tenfold over this short time period alone. Hydraulic fracturing technology, or “fracking”, as well as new directional drilling techniques, played key roles in this shale gas revolution, by allowing for extraction of natural gas from previously unviable shale resources. Although hydraulic fracturing technology had been around for decades, it only recently became commercially attractive for large-scale implementation. As the production of shale gas rapidly increased in the US over the past decade, the wellhead price of natural gas dropped substantially. In this paper we express the relationship between wellhead price and cumulative natural gas output in terms of an experience curve, and obtain a learning rate of 13% for the industry using hydraulic fracturing technology. This learning rate represents a measure for the know-how and skills accumulated thus far by the US shale gas industry. The use of experience curves for renewable energy options such as solar and wind power has allowed analysts, practitioners, and policy makers to assess potential price reductions, and underlying cost decreases, for these technologies in the future. The reasons for price reductions of hydraulic fracturing are fundamentally different from those behind renewable energy technologies – hence they cannot be directly compared – and hydraulic fracturing may soon reach, or maybe has already attained, a lower bound for further price reductions, for instance as a result of its water requirements or environmental footprint. Yet, understanding learning-by-doing phenomena as expressed by an industry-wide experience curve for shale gas production can be useful for strategic planning in the gas sector, as well as assist environmental policy design, and serve more broadly as input for projections of energy system developments. - Highlights: • Hydraulic

The product form for path integrals on curved manifolds

Science.gov (United States)

Grosche, C.

1988-03-01

A general and simple framework for treating path integrals on curved manifolds is presented. The crucial point will be a product ansatz for the metric tensor and the quantum hamiltonian, i.e. we shall write g αβ = h αγh βγ and H = (1/2m)h αγp αp βh βγ + V + ΔV , respectively, a prescription which we shall call “product form” definition. The p α are hermitian momenta and Δ V is a well-defined quantum correction. We shall show that this ansatz, which looks quite special, is in fact - under reasonable assumptions in quantum mechanics - a very general one. We shall derive the lagrangian path integral in the “product form” definition and shall also prove that the Schro¨dinger equation can be derived from the corresponding short-time kernel. We shall discuss briefly an application of this prescription to the problem of free quantum motion on the Poincare´upper half-plane.

Forest stand structure, productivity, and age mediate climatic effects on aspen decline

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

2014-01-01

Because forest stand structure, age, and productivity can mediate the impacts of climate on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality, ignoring stand-scale factors limits inference on the drivers of recent sudden aspen decline. Using the proportion of aspen trees that were dead as an index of recent mortality at 841 forest inventory plots, we examined the relationship of this mortality index to forest structure and climate in the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain Western United States. We found that forest structure explained most of the patterns in mortality indices, but that variation in growing-season vapor pressure deficit and winter precipitation over the last 20 years was important. Mortality index sensitivity to precipitation was highest in forests where aspen exhibited high densities, relative basal areas, quadratic mean diameters, and productivities, whereas sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit was highest in young forest stands. These results indicate that the effects of drought on mortality may be mediated by forest stand development, competition with encroaching conifers, and physiological vulnerabilities of large trees to drought. By examining mortality index responses to both forest structure and climate, we show that forest succession cannot be ignored in studies attempting to understand the causes and consequences of sudden aspen decline.

Egg Production in a Coastal Seabird, the Glaucous-Winged Gull (Larus glaucescens), Declines during the Last Century

Science.gov (United States)

Blight, Louise K.

2011-01-01

Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens), a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y−1 from 1902 (108 y), equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008–2010) 7 d later than in previous studies (1959–1986). This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50–100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas. PMID

Egg production in a coastal seabird, the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens, declines during the last century.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louise K Blight

Full Text Available Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens, a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y(-1 from 1902 (108 y, equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008-2010 7 d later than in previous studies (1959-1986. This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50-100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas.

Investigation of learning and experience curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krawiec, F.; Thornton, J.; Edesess, M.

1980-04-01

The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs of solar technologies is assessed, and the major test case is the production economics of heliostats. Alternative methods for estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, and procedures for using learning and experience curves to predict costs are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel and inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC and GE, respectively, are described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/yr is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregate cost curves are estimated; and aggregate cost curves for the GE and MDAC designs are estimated. However, an approach that combines a neoclassical production function with a learning-by-doing hypothesis is needed to yield a cost relation compatible with the historical learning curve and the traditional cost function of economic theory.

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

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Opuni Marjorie

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model. We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log

Application of the Learning Curve Analysis to the LHC Main Dipole Production First Assessment

CERN Document Server

Fessia, P; Rossi, L

2006-01-01

About two third of the LHC main dipoles have been delivered by the three suppliers charged of the production. The training of the staff, mostly hired just for this manufacture, and the natural improvement of the procedures with the acquired experience, decrease naturally the time necessary for the assembly of a unit. The aim of this paper is to apply methodologies like the cost-based learning curves and the time-based learning curves to the LHC Main Dipole comparing the estimated learning percentage to the ones experienced in other industries. This type of analysis, still in a preliminary phase and here applied to about 40% of the total production of the LHC magnets that will end by 2006, shows that our production has a relatively high learning percentage and it is similar to aerospace and complex machine tools for new models. Therefore with the LHC project, accelerator magnets seem to have reached industrial maturity and this production can be used as bench mark for other large scientific projects implying s...

Performance curves of medical researchers during their career: analysis of scientific production from a retrospective cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Duclos, Antoine; Herquelot, Eléonore; Polazzi, Stéphanie; Malbezin, Muriel; Claris, Olivier

2017-02-24

To establish the pattern of change in individual scientific production over the career of medical researchers. Retrospective cohort based on prospectively collected data in a hospital information system. Multicentre university hospital in France. Two distinct populations of 1835 researchers (full professors vs non-academic physicians) having produced 44 723 publications between 1995 and 2014. Annual number of publications referenced in Medline/PubMed with a sensitivity analysis based on publications as first/last author and in high impact journals. The individual volume of publications was modelled by age using generalised estimating equations adjusted for birth cohort, biomedical discipline and academic position of researchers. Averaged over the whole career, the annual number of publications was 5.28 (95% CI 4.90 to 5.69) among professors compared to 0.82 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.89) among non-academic physicians (pscientific production between 25 and 35 years (adjusted incidence rate ratio 102.20, 95% CI 60.99 to 171.30), a maturation phase with a slower increase from 35 to 50 years (2.10, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.51) until a stabilisation phase with constant production followed by a potential decline at the end of career (0.90, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.06). The non-academic physicians experienced a slower pace of learning curve at the beginning of their careers (42.38, 95% CI 25.37 to 70.81) followed by a smaller increase in the annual number of publications (1.29, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.51). Compared to full professors, non-academic physicians had a poor capacity to publish, indicating a low productivity when medical doctors have limited time or little interest in undertaking research. This finding highlights the potential for rethinking the missions of medical doctors towards an enlargement of scientific prerogatives in favour of progress in global knowledge. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go

Lactation curve of cross-bred buffalo under two production systems in the Amazonian region of Brazil

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A.C. Ribeiro Neto

2010-02-01

Full Text Available This study was conducted at the Agroforestry Research Center of EMBRAPA (CPAFRO, Rondônia, Brazil, to evaluate the lactation curve of crosss-bred buffalo [Murrah (M, Mediterranean (Me and Jafarabadi(J] under two production systems. Production system one (PS1 corresponded to the period of 1984 to 1998 where animals (4471 observation were milked once a day and received only pasture without supplementation. Production system two (PS2 corresponded to the period of 1999 to 2002 where animals (458 observations were milked twice daily with concentrate supplementation to pasture. Eight mathematical functions were used: Inverse Polynomial, Linear Hyperbolic, Incomplete Gamma, Logarithmic, Logarithmic Quadratic, Linear, Quadratic and Jenkins & Ferrel. Statistical analysis was conducted using PROC NLIN of SAS (2005. Results showed that for both production systems, Incomplete Gama was the best function to describe the lactation curve. Values of coefficient of determination, standard-deviation, coefficient of variation and standard-error were 95%, 0.068, 7.20, and 0.003, respectively. The corresponding values for PS2 were 96%, 0.200, 2.12, and 0.003. Values of the lactation curve parameters (a, b, and c for PS1 and PS2, respectively, were (a 7.0035923 and 10.9209, (b -0.1080043 and -0.1614882, (c 0.0434868 and 0.0679365.

Analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiss, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Junginger, Martin; Blok, Kornelis

2010-01-01

Large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries. Although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades, still additional energy efficiency potentials exist. Energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces, however, growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices. Here, we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long-term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances (washing machines, laundry dryers, and dishwashers) and two cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers). We identify a robust long-term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances. Specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates (LR) of 29±8% and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances (LR of 9±4%). Our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline, thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term. By extending the conventional experience curve approach, we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances (LR of 20-35%) and cold appliances (LR of 13-17%). Our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves. (author)

Learning Curve? Which One?

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Paulo Prochno

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.

Assessment of anthropogenic vegetation productivity decline in the Volta basin from 1982 to 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Vlek, Quang Bao Le, Lulseged Tamene, Paul L. G.

2009-04-01

Primary productivity decline is causing loss of ecosystem services which in turn influences not only the water cycle, but also the livelihoods of millions of inhabitants worldwide. Climate change or other natural events may be responsible for land degradation, but the phenomenon is mainly due to human actions. Therefore, it would be important to identify those areas in which the pressure on land needs to be alleviated. In this study, we conducted a step-wise analysis using a series of databases to identify the extent of land under anthropogenic threats. We processed time-series NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) products for the period 1982 - 2003 to analyse long-term trends in biomass productivity changes over the Volta basin. To distinguish human-induced biomass trends from climate-driven vegetation dynamics, we excluded those areas that had shown a strong biomass response to inter-annual rainfall variation. Pixels with NDVI changes in accordance with rainfall (positive correlation) were considered due to climate change or variation. Pixels not affected by rainfall (no or negative correlation) are those where green biomass change could be interpreted to reflect areas with strictly human induced land degradation. Spatial data of soil constraints, land-use/cover and population density within the study period were used to interpret possible underlying factors of land productivity decline. The results of the study show that about 31 thousands km2 (8% of the basin land mass), which is the living space of over 1.3 million people, was land that is losing its ability to produce green biomass due to human actions. The degradation areas for the various land cover types are 12.2 thousands km2 for woodland, 8.3 thousands km2 for agriculture, 7.3 thousands km2 for shrubland, and 1.6 thousands km2 for evergreen forest. The relatively low population density in the degraded areas (averagely 43 pers.km-2) would suggest that these are marginal areas with limited

Optimization of the flexible mould process for the production of double-curved concrete elements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schipper, H.R.; Grunewald, S.; Eigenraam, P.; Raghunath, P.; Kok, M.

2014-01-01

Free-form buildings tend to be expensive. By optimizing the production process, economical and wellperforming concrete structures and elements can be manufactured. In this paper, an innovative method is presented that allows producing highly accurate double curved-elements without the need for

PV experience curves for the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerwig, R.

2005-01-01

Experience curves are one of several tools used by policy makers to take a look at market development. Numerous curves have been constructed for PV but none specific to the Netherlands. The objective of this report is to take a look at the price development of grid-connected PV systems in the Netherlands using the experience curve theory. After a literature and internet search and attempts to acquire information from PV companies information on 51% of the totally installed capacity was found. Curves for the period 1991-2001 were constructed based on system price, BOS (balance-of-system) price and inverter price. The progress ratio of the locally learning BOS was similar to the globally learning module market. This indicates that the pace of development of the Dutch PV market is similar to the globally followed pace. Improvement of the detail of the data might help to get a better idea of which BOS components have declined most. The similar progress ratio also shows the importance of investing both in module and system research as is the case in the Netherlands

Gas production in the Barnett Shale obeys a simple scaling theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Patzek, Tad W; Male, Frank; Marder, Michael

2013-12-03

Natural gas from tight shale formations will provide the United States with a major source of energy over the next several decades. Estimates of gas production from these formations have mainly relied on formulas designed for wells with a different geometry. We consider the simplest model of gas production consistent with the basic physics and geometry of the extraction process. In principle, solutions of the model depend upon many parameters, but in practice and within a given gas field, all but two can be fixed at typical values, leading to a nonlinear diffusion problem we solve exactly with a scaling curve. The scaling curve production rate declines as 1 over the square root of time early on, and it later declines exponentially. This simple model provides a surprisingly accurate description of gas extraction from 8,294 wells in the United States' oldest shale play, the Barnett Shale. There is good agreement with the scaling theory for 2,057 horizontal wells in which production started to decline exponentially in less than 10 y. The remaining 6,237 horizontal wells in our analysis are too young for us to predict when exponential decline will set in, but the model can nevertheless be used to establish lower and upper bounds on well lifetime. Finally, we obtain upper and lower bounds on the gas that will be produced by the wells in our sample, individually and in total. The estimated ultimate recovery from our sample of 8,294 wells is between 10 and 20 trillion standard cubic feet.

Cereal Intake Increases and Dairy Products Decrease Risk of Cognitive Decline among Elderly Female Japanese.

Science.gov (United States)

Otsuka, R; Kato, Y; Nishita, Y; Tange, C; Nakamoto, M; Tomida, M; Imai, T; Ando, F; Shimokata, H

2014-01-01

If cognitive decline can be prevented through changes in daily diet with no medical intervention, it will be highly significant for dementia prevention. This longitudinal study examined the associations of different food intakes on cognitive decline among Japanese subjects. Prospective cohort study. The National Institute for Longevity Sciences - Longitudinal Study of Aging, a community-based study. Participants included 298 males and 272 females aged 60 to 81 years at baseline who participated in the follow-up study (third to seventh wave) at least one time. Cognitive function was assessed with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in all study waves. Nutritional intake was assessed using a 3-day dietary record in the second wave. Cumulative data among participants with an MMSE >27 in the second wave were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for an MMSE score ≤27 in each study wave according to a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase of each food intake at baseline were estimated, after adjusting for age, follow-up time, MMSE score at baseline, education, body mass index, annual household income, current smoking status, energy intake, and history of diseases. In men, after adjusting for age, and follow-up period, MMSE score at baseline, the adjusted OR for a decline in MMSE score was 1.20 (95% CI, 1.02-1.42; p=0.032) with a 1-SD increase in cereal intake. After adjusting for education and other confounding variables, the OR for a decrease in MMSE score did not reach statistical significance for this variable. In women, multivariate adjusted OR for MMSE decline was 1.43 (95% CI, 1.15-1.77; p=0.001) with a 1-SD increase in cereal intake and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.65-0.98; p=0.034) with a 1-SD increase in milk and dairy product intake. This study indicates that a 1-SD (108 g/day) decrease in cereal intake and a 1-SD (128 g/day) increase in milk and dairy product intake may have an

Implementation Learning and Forgetting Curve to Scheduling in Garment Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Muhamad Badri, Huda; Deros, Baba Md; Syahri, M.; Saleh, Chairul; Fitria, Aninda

2016-02-01

The learning curve shows the relationship between time and the cumulative number of units produced which using the mathematical description on the performance of workers in performing repetitive works. The problems of this study is level differences in the labors performance before and after the break which affects the company's production scheduling. The study was conducted in the garment industry, which the aims is to predict the company production scheduling using the learning curve and forgetting curve. By implementing the learning curve and forgetting curve, this paper contributes in improving the labors performance that is in line with the increase in maximum output 3 hours productive before the break are 15 unit product with learning curve percentage in the company is 93.24%. Meanwhile, the forgetting curve improving maximum output 3 hours productive after the break are 11 unit product with the percentage of forgetting curve in the company is 92.96%. Then, the obtained 26 units product on the productive hours one working day is used as the basic for production scheduling.

Validation of Ulchin Units 1, 2 CONTEMPT Model Prior to the Production of EQ Envelope Curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Su Hyun; Kim, Min Ki; Hong, Soon Joon; Lee, Byung Chul; Suh, Jeong Kwan; Lee, Jae Yong; Song, Dong Soo

2010-01-01

The Ulchin Units 1, 2 will be refurbished with RSG (Replacement of Steam Generator) and PU (Power Uprate). The current EQ (Environmental Qualification) envelope curve should be modified according to RSG and PU. The containment P/T (Pressure/Temperature) analysis in Ulchin Units 1, 2 FSAR was done using EDF computer program PAREO6. PAREO6 uses the same assumptions as the US NRC CONTEMPT program, and the results given by both programs are in good agreement. It is utilized to determine pressure and temperature variations in a PWR containment subsequent to a reactor coolant or secondary system pipe break. But PAREO6 cannot be available to the production of EQ envelope curve, so CONTEMPT code should be used instead of PAREO6. It is essential to validate the CONTEMPT OSG (Original Steam Generator) model prior to the production of EQ envelope curve considering RSG and PU. This study has been performed to validate the CONTEMPT model of Ulchin Units 1, 2 by comparing the CONTEMPT results with the PAERO6 results in Ulchin Units 1, 2 FSAR

Validation of Ulchin Units 1, 2 CONTEMPT Model Prior to the Production of EQ Envelope Curve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Su Hyun; Kim, Min Ki; Hong, Soon Joon; Lee, Byung Chul [FNC Technology Co., SNU, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Suh, Jeong Kwan; Lee, Jae Yong; Song, Dong Soo [KEPCO Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2010-10-15

The Ulchin Units 1, 2 will be refurbished with RSG (Replacement of Steam Generator) and PU (Power Uprate). The current EQ (Environmental Qualification) envelope curve should be modified according to RSG and PU. The containment P/T (Pressure/Temperature) analysis in Ulchin Units 1, 2 FSAR was done using EDF computer program PAREO6. PAREO6 uses the same assumptions as the US NRC CONTEMPT program, and the results given by both programs are in good agreement. It is utilized to determine pressure and temperature variations in a PWR containment subsequent to a reactor coolant or secondary system pipe break. But PAREO6 cannot be available to the production of EQ envelope curve, so CONTEMPT code should be used instead of PAREO6. It is essential to validate the CONTEMPT OSG (Original Steam Generator) model prior to the production of EQ envelope curve considering RSG and PU. This study has been performed to validate the CONTEMPT model of Ulchin Units 1, 2 by comparing the CONTEMPT results with the PAERO6 results in Ulchin Units 1, 2 FSAR

With Prudhoe Bay in decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.M.; Pollock, J.R.

1992-01-01

Almost every day, it seems, someone is mentioning Prudhoe Bay---its development activities, the direction of its oil production, and more recently its decline rate. Almost as frequently, someone is mentioning the number of companies abandoning exploration in Alaska. The state faces a double-edged dilemma: decline of its most important oil field and a diminished effort to find a replacement for the lost production. ARCO has seen the Prudhoe Bay decline coming for some time and has been planning for it. We have reduced staff, and ARCO and BP Exploration are finding cost-effective ways to work more closely together through such vehicles as shared services. At the same time, ARCO is continuing its high level of Alaskan exploration. This article will assess the future of Prudhoe Bay from a technical perspective, review ARCO's exploration plans for Alaska, and suggest what the state can do to encourage other companies to invest in this crucial producing region and exploratory frontier

Hospital marketing: strategy reassessment in a declining market.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Doren, D C; Spielman, A P

1989-03-01

Despite continued significant increases in the nation's spending for health care, use of inpatient hospital services has declined. The authors use the product life cycle to analyze the market for inpatient hospital services and to examine competitive strategies for hospital marketing success. The product life cycle literature suggests at least four strategies for products in decline. The authors analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these strategies as they relate to the hospital market.

Farmer's lung is now in decline.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Arya, A

2012-02-03

Farmer\\'s lung incidence in Ireland was constant until 1996, even though hay making methods were revolutionised in late 1980\\'s. We undertook this study to find out the incidence of farmer\\'s lung in Ireland from 1982-2002 and its correlation with rainfall and the effect of changing farm practices. The primary cases of farmer\\'s lung were identified from Hospital in Patients Enquiry (HIPE) unit of the national Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin. Rainfall data were obtained from Met Eireann whereas population, hay production and silage production were obtained from the Central Statistics Office, Dublin. As the farming population is in decline, we used the annual working unit (AWU), which reflects the true population at risk. An AWU is the equivalent of 1800 hours per farm worker per year. The incidence rates were constant from 1982-1996, but from 1997-2002 a marked decline was observed. There was strong positive correlation with hay production (r = 0.81) and strong negative correlation with silage production (r = -0.82). This study indicates that the incidence of farmer\\'s lung is now in decline.

Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Crt Kostevc

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

Modelling ramp-up curves to reflect learning: improving capacity planning in secondary pharmaceutical production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Klaus Reinholdt Nyhuus; Grunow, Martin

2015-01-01

availability at market launch is ensured. Our MILP model is applied to a real industry case study using three empirically observed ramp-up curves to demonstrate its value as decision support tool. We demonstrate the superiority of our volume-dependent method over the traditional time-dependent ramp......The experience gained during production ramp-up leads to an increase of the effective production capacity over time. However, full utilisation of production capacity is not always possible during ramp-up. In such cases, the experience gained and hence the available effective capacity...... are overestimated. We develop a new method, which captures ramp-up as a function of the cumulative production volume to better reflect the experience gained while producing the new product. The use of the more accurate and computationally effective approach is demonstrated for the case of secondary pharmaceutical...

Variation of curve number with storm depth

Science.gov (United States)

Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

2012-04-01

The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

Use of a Geothermal-Solar Hybrid Power Plant to Mitigate Declines in Geothermal Resource Productivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dan Wendt; Greg Mines

2014-09-01

Many, if not all, geothermal resources are subject to decreasing productivity manifested in the form of decreasing brine temperature, flow rate, or both during the life span of the associated power generation project. The impacts of resource productivity decline on power plant performance can be significant; a reduction in heat input to a power plant not only decreases the thermal energy available for conversion to electrical power, but also adversely impacts the power plant conversion efficiency. The reduction in power generation is directly correlated to a reduction in revenues from power sales. Further, projects with Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contracts in place may be subject to significant economic penalties if power generation falls below the default level specified. A potential solution to restoring the performance of a power plant operating from a declining productivity geothermal resource involves the use of solar thermal energy to restore the thermal input to the geothermal power plant. There are numerous technical merits associated with a renewable geothermal-solar hybrid plant in which the two heat sources share a common power block. The geo-solar hybrid plant could provide a better match to typical electrical power demand profiles than a stand-alone geothermal plant. The hybrid plant could also eliminate the stand-alone concentrated solar power plant thermal storage requirement for operation during times of low or no solar insolation. This paper identifies hybrid plant configurations and economic conditions for which solar thermal retrofit of a geothermal power plant could improve project economics. The net present value of the concentrated solar thermal retrofit of an air-cooled binary geothermal plant is presented as functions of both solar collector array cost and electricity sales price.

Power forward curves: a managerial perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagarajan, Shankar

1999-01-01

This chapter concentrates on managerial application of power forward curves, and examines the determinants of electricity prices such as transmission constraints, its inability to be stored in a conventional way, its seasonality and weather dependence, the generation stack, and the swing risk. The electricity forward curve, classical arbitrage, constructing a forward curve, volatilities, and electricity forward curve models such as the jump-diffusion model, the mean-reverting heteroscedastic volatility model, and an econometric model of forward prices are examined. A managerial perspective of the applications of the forward curve is presented covering plant valuation, capital budgeting, performance measurement, product pricing and structuring, asset optimisation, valuation of transmission options, and risk management

Wind Turbine Power Curves Incorporating Turbulence Intensity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse

2014-01-01

. The model and method are parsimonious in the sense that only a single function (the zero-turbulence power curve) and a single auxiliary parameter (the equivalent turbulence factor) are needed to predict the mean power at any desired turbulence intensity. The method requires only ten minute statistics......The performance of a wind turbine in terms of power production (the power curve) is important to the wind energy industry. The current IEC-61400-12-1 standard for power curve evaluation recognizes only the mean wind speed at hub height and the air density as relevant to the power production...

Action plan against declining vineyards: An innovative approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riou Christophe

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Declining vineyards are assessed by a multi-year decrease in vine productivity and/or its sudden premature or gradual death, based on multiple factors. Since 2015, the French wine sector has been working on an original study to identify new research avenues while launching an innovative action plan to combat vineyard decline. First, a statistical analysis enabled to estimate research efforts in the different countries. 70 factors susceptible to contribute to vineyard decline were then identified by analyzing more than 500 publications. These factors are biological, physical or linked to growing practices. While the role of pathogens is fairly well-known, the impact of the land plot or the soil on decline is less understood. Secondly, a prospective methodology was used to better identify viticulture system factors and levers affecting vines. It was thus demonstrated that yield and longevity are strongly linked to agronomy, economic variables and plant matter, plant physiology, disease, etc... These are the key issues and leverage actions to combat more strongly vineyard decline. The matrix analysis was then complemented by interviews and statistical data to imagine leverage actions. The strategic action plan is focused on four objectives: promoting training of good practices, improving plant production organization, developing vineyard observation networks, implementing an innovative research plan.

Declining Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W Andrew Cox

Full Text Available Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater, which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce parasitism pressure and thus increase productivity of host species. We used 20 years of nest monitoring data from five sites in Missouri across a gradient of landscape forest cover to assess temporal trends in the rate and intensity of brood parasitism for Acadian Flycatchers (Empidonax virescens, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis. We evaluated whether there were concomitant changes in fledging brood size, nest survival, a combination of the two metrics (i.e., host young produced per nest attempt, and whether such changes were more substantial with decreasing landscape forest cover. Parasitism rates and intensities declined substantially during 1991-2010. Fledging brood size and nest survival rates were positively associated with landscape forest cover, confirming the fragmentation hypothesis for Midwest forest birds. Declining parasitism rates were associated with increased fledging brood sizes, with more pronounced increases as landscape forest cover decreased. Nest survival increased insubstantially across time during laying and incubation, but not during the nestling stage. The best predictor of nest survival was parasitism status, with parasitized nests surviving at lower rates than unparasitized nests. Overall, productivity increased during 1991-2010, with more pronounced increases associated with lower levels of landscape forest cover. The negative effects of cowbirds on nest survival in addition to fledging brood size in less forested landscapes suggest that cowbirds may be a primary cause of forest fragmentation effects on songbird productivity in the

Acid-base status of upper rooting zone soil in declining and non-declining sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) stands in Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

William E. Sharpe; Troy L. Sunderland

1995-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) is an important commercial tree species of the central hardwood region which is valued for its wood and maple sugar products. High elevation sugar maple stands in northcentral Pennsylvania have been in serious decline for about the last 15 years with more than 1,200 hectares of maple forest affected. The decline...

Putting experience curves in context : links to and between technology development, market diffusion, learning mechanisms and systems innovation theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Junginger, M.; Suurs, R.; Verbong, G.P.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Sark, W. van; Faaij, A. xx

2010-01-01

As far as the experience curve approach goes, the focus is mainly on quantifying the cost reductions of the technological artefact (e.g. a wind turbine or biomass power plant) due to technological development. However, the experience curve by itself offers no explanation why costs should decline in

Peak oil demand: the role of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels in a global oil production decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Adam R; Millard-Ball, Adam; Ganser, Matthew; Gorelick, Steven M

2013-07-16

Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services, (b) all liquid fuels, and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010 to 2100 (close to the U.S. Geological Survey median estimate of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance-oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.

Comparison of wind turbines based on power curve analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

In the study measured power curves for 46 wind turbines were analyzed with the purpose to establish the basis for a consistent comparison of the efficiency of the wind turbines. Emphasis is on wind turbines above 500 kW rated power, with power curves measured after 1994 according to international recommendations. The available power curves fulfilling these requirements were smoothened according to a procedure developed for the purpose in such a way that the smoothened power curves are equally representative as the measured curves. The resulting smoothened power curves are presented in a standardized format for the subsequent processing. Using wind turbine data from the power curve documentation the analysis results in curves for specific energy production (kWh/M{sup 2}/yr) versus specific rotor load (kW/M{sup 2}) for a range of mean wind speeds. On this basis generalized curves for specific annual energy production versus specific rotor load are established for a number of generalized wind turbine concepts. The 46 smoothened standardized power curves presented in the report, the procedure developed to establish them, and the results of the analysis based on them aim at providers of measured power curves as well as users of them including manufacturers, advisors and decision makers. (au)

Meeting the demand for crop production: the challenge of yield decline in crops grown in short rotations.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Amanda J; Bending, Gary D; Chandler, David; Hilton, Sally; Mills, Peter

2012-02-01

There is a trend world-wide to grow crops in short rotation or in monoculture, particularly in conventional agriculture. This practice is becoming more prevalent due to a range of factors including economic market trends, technological advances, government incentives, and retailer and consumer demands. Land-use intensity will have to increase further in future in order to meet the demands of growing crops for both bioenergy and food production, and long rotations may not be considered viable or practical. However, evidence indicates that crops grown in short rotations or monoculture often suffer from yield decline compared to those grown in longer rotations or for the first time. Numerous factors have been hypothesised as contributing to yield decline, including biotic factors such as plant pathogens, deleterious rhizosphere microorganisms, mycorrhizas acting as pathogens, and allelopathy or autotoxicity of the crop, as well as abiotic factors such as land management practices and nutrient availability. In many cases, soil microorganisms have been implicated either directly or indirectly in yield decline. Although individual factors may be responsible for yield decline in some cases, it is more likely that combinations of factors interact to cause the problem. However, evidence confirming the precise role of these various factors is often lacking in field studies due to the complex nature of cropping systems and the numerous interactions that take place within them. Despite long-term knowledge of the yield-decline phenomenon, there are few tools to counteract it apart from reverting to longer crop rotations or break crops. Alternative cropping and management practices such as double-cropping or inter-cropping, tillage and organic amendments may prove valuable for combating some of the negative effects seen when crops are grown in short rotation. Plant breeding continues to be important, although this does require a specific breeding target to be identified. This

Development of a statistically-based lower bound fracture toughness curve (Ksub(IR) curve)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wullaert, R.A.; Server, W.L.; Oldfield, W.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

1977-01-01

A program of initiation fracture toughness measurements on fifty heats of nuclear pressure vessel production materials (including weldments) was used to develop a methodology for establishing a revised reference toughness curve. The new methodology was statistically developed and provides a predefined confidence limit (or tolerance limit) for fracture toughness based upon many heats of a particular type of material. Overall reference curves were developed for seven specific materials using large specimen static and dynamic fracture toughness results. The heat-to-heat variation was removed by normalizing both the fracture toughness and temperature data with the precracked Charpy tanh curve coefficients for each particular heat. The variance and distribution about the curve were determined, and lower bounds of predetermined statistical significance were drawn based upon a Pearson distribution in the lower shelf region (since the data were skewed to high values) and a t-distribution in the transition temperature region (since the data were normally distributed)

No evidence for an open vessel effect in centrifuge-based vulnerability curves of a long-vesselled liana (Vitis vinifera).

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobsen, Anna L; Pratt, R Brandon

2012-06-01

Vulnerability to cavitation curves are used to estimate xylem cavitation resistance and can be constructed using multiple techniques. It was recently suggested that a technique that relies on centrifugal force to generate negative xylem pressures may be susceptible to an open vessel artifact in long-vesselled species. Here, we used custom centrifuge rotors to measure different sample lengths of 1-yr-old stems of grapevine to examine the influence of open vessels on vulnerability curves, thus testing the hypothesized open vessel artifact. These curves were compared with a dehydration-based vulnerability curve. Although samples differed significantly in the number of open vessels, there was no difference in the vulnerability to cavitation measured on 0.14- and 0.271-m-long samples of Vitis vinifera. Dehydration and centrifuge-based curves showed a similar pattern of declining xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (K(s)) with declining water potential. The percentage loss in hydraulic conductivity (PLC) differed between dehydration and centrifuge curves and it was determined that grapevine is susceptible to errors in estimating maximum K(s) during dehydration because of the development of vessel blockages. Our results from a long-vesselled liana do not support the open vessel artifact hypothesis. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Production of Curved Precast Concrete Elements for Shell Structures and Free-form Architecture using the Flexible Mould Method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schipper, H.R.; Grünewald, S.; Eigenraam, P.; Raghunath, P.; Kok, M.A.D.

2014-01-01

Free-form buildings tend to be expensive. By optimizing the production process, economical and well-performing precast concrete structures can be manufactured. In this paper, a method is presented that allows producing highly accurate double curved-elements without the need for milling two expensive

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

2015-02-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Mei-Lyn; Tan, Pei Fang; Holbrook, Joanna D

2017-01-01

Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database. In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors. A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class. Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

Hotspots of human-induced biomass productivity decline and their social-ecological types toward supporting national policy and local studies on combating land degradation

Science.gov (United States)

Vu, Quyet Manh; Le, Quang Bao; Vlek, Paul L. G.

2014-10-01

Identification and social-ecological characterization of areas that experience high levels of persistent productivity decline are essential for planning appropriate management measures. Although land degradation is mainly induced by human actions, the phenomenon is concurrently influenced by global climate changes that need to be taken into account in land degradation assessments. This study aims to delineate the geographic hotspots of human-induced land degradation in the country and classify the social-ecological characterizations of each specific degradation hotspot type. The research entailed a long-term time-series (1982-2006) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to specify the extents of areas with significant biomass decline or increase in Vietnam. Annual rainfall and temperature time-series were then used to separate areas of human-induced biomass productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Next, spatial cluster analyses identified social-ecological types of degradation for guiding further investigations at regional and local scales. The results show that about 19% of the national land mass experienced persistent declines in biomass productivity over the last 25 years. Most of the degraded areas are found in the Southeast and Mekong River Delta (17,984 km2), Northwest Mountains (14,336 km2), and Central Highlands (13,504 km2). We identified six and five social-ecological types of degradation hotspots in agricultural and forested zones, respectively. Constraints in soil nutrient availability and nutrient retention capability are widely spreading in all degradation hotspot types. These hotspot types are different from each other in social and ecological conditions, suggesting that region-specific strategies are needed for the formulation of land degradation combating policy.

Oxidative stress induced inflammation initiates functional decline of tear production.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuichi Uchino

Full Text Available Oxidative damage and inflammation are proposed to be involved in an age-related functional decline of exocrine glands. However, the molecular mechanism of how oxidative stress affects the secretory function of exocrine glands is unclear. We developed a novel mev-1 conditional transgenic mouse model (Tet-mev-1 using a modified tetracycline system (Tet-On/Off system. This mouse model demonstrated decreased tear production with morphological changes including leukocytic infiltration and fibrosis. We found that the mev-1 gene encodes Cyt-1, which is the cytochrome b(560 large subunit of succinate-ubiquinone oxidoreductase in complex II of mitochondria (homologous to succinate dehydrogenase C subunit (SDHC in humans. The mev-1 gene induced excessive oxidative stress associated with ocular surface epithelial damage and a decrease in protein and aqueous secretory function. This new model provides evidence that mitochondrial oxidative damage in the lacrimal gland induces lacrimal dysfunction resulting in dry eye disease. Tear volume in Tet-mev-1 mice was lower than in wild type mice and histopathological analyses showed the hallmarks of lacrimal gland inflammation by intense mononuclear leukocytic infiltration and fibrosis in the lacrimal gland of Tet-mev-1 mice. These findings strongly suggest that oxidative stress can be a causative factor for the development of dry eye disease.

Management of the learning curve

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Peter-Christian; Slepniov, Dmitrij

2016-01-01

Purpose – This paper focuses on the management of the learning curve in overseas capacity expansions. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the direct as well as indirect influences on the learning curve and to advance the understanding of how these affect its management. Design...... the dimensions of the learning process involved in a capacity expansion project and identified the direct and indirect labour influences on the production learning curve. On this basis, the study proposes solutions to managing learning curves in overseas capacity expansions. Furthermore, the paper concludes...... with measures that have the potential to significantly reduce the non-value-added time when establishing new capacities overseas. Originality/value – The paper uses a longitudinal in-depth case study of a Danish wind turbine manufacturer and goes beyond a simplistic treatment of the lead time and learning...

Textbook Factor Demand Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Joe C.

1994-01-01

Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)

The decline in phytoplankton biomass and prawn catches in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The world's oceans have seen significant declines in phytoplankton-the primary food source in the marine environment. This decline in primary producers is likely to impact the food chain and functions of most coastal and marine ecosystems. Despite being one of the most productive marine fishing grounds in the Western ...

Environmental Kuznets curves-real progress or passing the buck? A case for consumption-based approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothman, Dale S.

1998-01-01

Recent research has examined the hypothesis of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC): the notion that environmental impact increases in the early stages of development followed by declines in the later stages. These studies have focused on the relationship between per capita income and a variety of environmental indicators. Results imply that EKCs may exist for a number of cases. However, the measures of environmental impact used generally focus on production processes and reflect environmental impacts that are local in nature and for which abatement is relatively inexpensive in terms of monetary costs and/or lifestyle changes. Significantly, more consumption-based measures, such as CO 2 emissions and municipal waste, for which impacts are relatively easy to externalize or costly to control, show no tendency to decline with increasing per capita income. By considering consumption and trade patterns, the author re-examines the concept of the EKC and propose the use of alternative, consumption-based measures of environmental impact. The author speculates that what appear to be improvements in environmental quality may in reality be indicators of increased ability of consumers in wealthy nations to distance themselves from the environmental degradation associated with their consumption

Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

2009-03-01

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated

Diagram for a small planet. The Production and Ecosystem Possibilities Curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haight, Alan Day

2007-01-01

With the development of the GPI there is now an ecological alternative to GDP for measuring a country's economic performance, but we still lack an ecological alternative to the PPC for illustrating a country's economic problem. The diagram suggested here illustrates a country's production and ecosystem possibilities - including climate stability, flood control, carbon sequestration, aquifer recharge, scenery, recreation, biological diversity, and so on. Burning a rainforest to clear the land shifts a country's PPC outward, giving the visual impression of an unmitigated improvement; but such development causes a movement along the country's PEPC, as ecosystem services are transformed into GDP. The slope of the PEPC is the marginal rate of transformation, which equals the ratio of the land's marginal marketable product to its marginal ecosystem product. Changes in technology create substitution and income effects that help explain the enclosure movement and the environmental Kuznets curve. Much as employment of the human resource can be restrained to allow more leisure, development of the natural resource can be restrained to preserve more ecosystem services. Commercial lobbying interests and rivalries for positional goods create distortions that move a country along its PEPC to a materialistic misallocation, with too little conservation. An idealistic misallocation is also possible, with too much preservation of the natural environment. Small is beautiful, up to a point, and that is evident in this diagram. Jacob Viner's [Viner, J., 1937. Studies in the Theory of International Trade. Harper and Brothers, New York] analytical objections to the PPC are revived. (author)

The role of experience curves for setting MEPS for appliances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siderius, Hans-Paul

2013-01-01

Minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) are an important policy instrument to raise the efficiency of products. In most schemes the concept of life cycle costs (LCC) is used to guide setting the MEPS levels. Although a large body of literature shows that product cost is decreasing with increasing cumulative production, the experience curve, this is currently not used for setting MEPS. This article shows how to integrate the concept of the experience curve into LCC calculations for setting MEPS in the European Union and applies this to household laundry driers, refrigerator-freezers and televisions. The results indicate that for driers and refrigerator-freezers at least twice the energy savings compared to the current approach can be achieved. These products also show that energy label classes can successfully be used for setting MEPS. For televisions an experience curve is provided, showing a learning rate of 29%. However, television prices do not show a relation with energy efficiency but are to a large extent determined by the time the product is placed on the market. This suggests to policy makers that for televisions and other products with a short (re)design and market cycle timing is more important than the MEPS levels itself. - Highlights: • We integrate experience curves into life cycle cost calculations for MEPS. • For driers and refrigerators this results in at least twice the energy savings. • For flat panel televisions an experience curve is provided

Insulin is Differentially Related to Cognitive Decline and Atrophy in Alzheimer’s Disease and Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Jeffrey M.; Honea, Robyn A.; Vidoni, Eric D.; Hutfles, Lewis; Brooks, William M.; Swerdlow, Russell H.

2012-01-01

We assessed the relationship of insulin resistance with cognitive decline and brain atrophy over two years in early Alzheimer’s disease (AD, n=48) and nondemented controls (n=61). Intravenous glucose tolerance tests were conducted at baseline to determine insulin area-under-the-curve (AUC). A standard battery of cognitive tasks and MRI were conducted at baseline and 2-year follow-up. In nondemented controls, higher baseline insulin AUC was associated with 2-year decline in global cognitive performance (beta=−0.36, p=0.005). In early AD, however, higher insulin AUC was associated with less decline in global cognitive performance (beta=0.26, p=0.06), slower global brain atrophy (beta=0.40, p=0.01) and less regional atrophy in the bilateral hippocampi and cingulate cortices. While insulin resistance is associated with cognitive decline in nondemented aging, higher peripheral insulin may have AD-specific benefits or insulin signaling may be affected by systemic physiologic changes associated with AD. PMID:21745566

Toxin production by Fusarium solani from declining citrus plants and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The highest Fusarium sp. followed by Aspergillus, Phytophthora, Pythium, Penicillium and Alternaria species were remote from the collected samples of roots and soil from the four tehsils of Sargodha district of Pakistan. The maximum Fusarium sp. was isolated from the roots of declining citrus trees from tehsil Bhalwal ...

Learning curve tool applications in DOE materials management activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lipinski, A.

1994-01-01

This paper will examine the application of learning curve theory, an economic theory that quantifies cost savings over time in a labor intensive process. Learning curve theory has been traditionally applied to a production process. This paper examines the application of learning curve theory in cost estimating of waste characterization in storage at a DOE facility

Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.

2010-01-01

We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.

Neutron cross sections: Book of curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLane, V.; Dunford, C.L.; Rose, P.F.

1988-01-01

Neuton Cross Sections: Book of Curves represents the fourth edition of what was previously known as BNL-325, Neutron Cross Sections, Volume 2, CURVES. Data is presented only for (i.e., intergrated) reaction cross sections (and related fission parameters) as a function of incident-neutron energy for the energy range 0.01 eV to 200 MeV. For the first time, isometric state production cross sections have been included. 11 refs., 4 figs

Household Production and Environmental Kuznets Curves. Examining the Desirability and Feasibility of Substitution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfaff, Alexander S.P.; Chaudhuri, S. [Department of International and Public Affairs, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Nye, Howard L.M. [Department of Economics, Columbia University SIPA, New York, NY 10027 (United States)

2004-02-01

This paper provides a theoretical explanation for the widely debated empirical finding of 'Environmental Kuznets Curves', i.e., U-shaped relationships between per-capita income and indicators of environmental quality. We present a household-production model in which the degradation of environmental quality is a by-product of household activities. Households can not directly purchase environmental quality, but can reduce degradation by substituting more expensive cleaner inputs to production for less costly dirty inputs. If environmental quality is a normal good, one expects substitution towards the less polluting inputs, so that increases in income will increase the quality of the environment. It is shown that this only holds for middle income households. Poorer households spend all income on dirty inputs. When they buy more, as income rises, the pollution also rises. they do not want to substitute, as this would reduce consumption of non-environmental services for environmental amenities that are already abundant. Thus, as income rises from low to middle levels, a U shape can result. Yet an N shape might eventually result, as richer households spend all income on clean inputs. Further substitution possibilities are exhausted. Thus as income rises again pollution rises and environmental quality falls.

On-farm evaluation of the effect of metabolic diseases on the shape of the lactation curve in dairy cows through the MilkBot lactation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hostens, M; Ehrlich, J; Van Ranst, B; Opsomer, G

2012-06-01

The effects of metabolic diseases (MD) occurring during the transition period on milk production of dairy cows have been evaluated in many different ways, often with conflicting conclusions. The present study used a fitted lactation model to analyze specific aspects of lactation curve shape and magnitude in cows that avoided culling or death in the first 120 d in milk (DIM). Production and health records of 1,946 lactations in a 1-yr follow-up study design were collected from a transition management facility in Germany to evaluate both short- and long-term effects of MD on milk production. Milk production data were fitted with the nonlinear MilkBot lactation model, and health records were used to classify cows as healthy (H), affected by one MD (MD), or by multiple MD (MD+). The final data set contained 1,071 H, 348 MD, and 136 MD+ cows, with distinct incidences of 3.7% twinning, 4.8% milk fever, 3.6% retained placenta, 15.4% metritis, 8.3% ketosis, 2.0% displaced abomasum, and 3.7% mastitis in the first 30 DIM. The model containing all healthy and diseased cows showed that lactations classified as H had milk production that increased faster (lower ramp) and also declined faster (lower persistence) compared with cows that encountered one or more metabolic problems. The level of production (scale) was only lowered in MD+ cows compared with H and MD cows. Although the shape of the lactation curve changed when cows encounter uncomplicated (single) MD or complicated MD (more than one MD), the slower increase to a lower peak seemed to be compensated for by greater persistency, resulting in the overall 305-d milk production only being lowered in MD+ cows. In the individual disease models, specific changes in the shape of the lactation curve were found for all MD except twinning. Milk fever, retained placenta, ketosis, and mastitis mainly affected the lactation curve when accompanied by another MD, whereas metritis and displaced abomasum affected the lactation curve

Diagram for a small planet. The Production and Ecosystem Possibilities Curve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haight, Alan Day [Economics Department, SUNY-Cortland, Old Main, Room 136A, Cortland, New York, 13045 (United States)

2007-10-15

With the development of the GPI there is now an ecological alternative to GDP for measuring a country's economic performance, but we still lack an ecological alternative to the PPC for illustrating a country's economic problem. The diagram suggested here illustrates a country's production and ecosystem possibilities - including climate stability, flood control, carbon sequestration, aquifer recharge, scenery, recreation, biological diversity, and so on. Burning a rainforest to clear the land shifts a country's PPC outward, giving the visual impression of an unmitigated improvement; but such development causes a movement along the country's PEPC, as ecosystem services are transformed into GDP. The slope of the PEPC is the marginal rate of transformation, which equals the ratio of the land's marginal marketable product to its marginal ecosystem product. Changes in technology create substitution and income effects that help explain the enclosure movement and the environmental Kuznets curve. Much as employment of the human resource can be restrained to allow more leisure, development of the natural resource can be restrained to preserve more ecosystem services. Commercial lobbying interests and rivalries for positional goods create distortions that move a country along its PEPC to a materialistic misallocation, with too little conservation. An idealistic misallocation is also possible, with too much preservation of the natural environment. Small is beautiful, up to a point, and that is evident in this diagram. Jacob Viner's [Viner, J., 1937. Studies in the Theory of International Trade. Harper and Brothers, New York] analytical objections to the PPC are revived. (author)

Declination Calculator

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

Declino del prodotto agricolo: misure e spiegazioni. ( Decline in the share of the agricultural product: measurements and explanations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. ERCOLANI

2013-12-01

Full Text Available La riduzione della quota dell'agricoltura del prodotto costituisce il cambiamento più importante nella struttura dell'offerta associato con la crescita del reddito. Questo è così costante che può essere considerato una delle "leggi" dell'economia, tuttavia, al fine di comprendere un fenomeno complesso in termini di sviluppo economico, la ricerca di uniformità dovrebbe rappresentare solo l'inizio, non la conclusione dell'analisi. Questo lavoro si concentra sul modello di agricoltura di quota,  tra paesi  nel tempo, e considera i fattori che determinano il relativo declino del prodotto agricolo. I singoli autori  hanno contribuito alla determinazione delle differenze sistemiche tra i paesi dell'agricoltura quota di prodotto. Poi, una valutazione quantitativa dei fattori che hanno causato il declino è presentato.The reduction of agriculture’s share of product constitutes the most important change in the structure of supply associated with income growth. This is so constant that it can be considered one of the “laws” of economics, however, in order to understand such a complex phenomenon in terms of economic development, the search for uniformity should represent only the beginning, not the conclusion of the analysis. This work focuses on the pattern of agriculture’s share, both among countries and over time, and considers the factors which determine the relative decline of the agricultural product. The author singles out the factors other than income that have contributed to the determination of systemic differences among countries in agriculture’s share in product. Then, a quantitative assessment of the factors which have caused the decline is presented.JEL: N50, O13, Q10

The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakersain, Behnaz; Rizzuto, Debora; Larsson, Susanna C; Faxén-Irving, Gerd; Fratiglioni, Laura; Xu, Wei-Li

2018-02-17

Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP) was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077-0.201) and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175-0.300) to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080-0.386) and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70). Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

The Potential role of marine derived food products on Alzheimer\\'s disese and cognitive decline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahsan Assadi

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Alzheimer's disese is the most frequent cause of dementia and is one of important cause of mortality and morbidity in the world. Although, there are different therapeutic options for its treatment , the results of these therapies are disappointing. Omega-3 fatty acids in marine- derived food products, affect on different mechanisms, improve cognitive function, memory.in this study, effect Omega-3 fatty acids in marine- derived food products of cognitive disorders and Alzheimer's are reviewed. Methods: The method employed in this research was a systematic bibiliographic review,in which only the double-blind placebo-controlled studies or the clinically detailed enough open-labeled studies using validated scales were retained. Results: Many studies have shown that Omega-3 fatty acids in marine- derived food products, affect by different mechanisms include decrease inflammation and oxidative stress, synaptogenesis, synaptic plasticity, and neurogenesis promotion in neuroprotection and improvement cognitive function and memory, also omega3 fatty acid could lead to a decrease in risk of Alzheimer's diseas and the other cognitive impairements. Conclusion: However, more and large clinical trials are needed to confirm the beneficial effects of omega 3 fatty acid supplementation on the management of Alzheimer's disease and cognitive decline.

An experimental test of the causes of forest growth decline with stand age.

Science.gov (United States)

Michael G. Ryan; Dan Binkley; James H. Fownes; Christian Giardina; Randy S. Senock

2004-01-01

The decline in aboveground wood production after canopy closure in even-aged forest stands is a common pattern in forests, but clear evidence for the mechanism causing the decline is lacking. The problem is fundamental to forest biology, commercial forestry (the decline sets the rotation age), and to carbon storage in forests. We tested three hypotheses...

Why Employee Motivation Has Declined in America.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Philip C.

1982-01-01

Examines possible reasons for declining employee motivation: greater instability and diversity of values; more guaranteed rewards; inability of rewards to satisfy emerging needs; disappearing work ethic; reduced costs of failure; rising income and progressive taxation; more group production and problem solving; decreased employee loyalty; less…

Disease management strategy for macadamia quick decline

Science.gov (United States)

Trees infected with Macadamia Quick Decline (MQD) exhibit excessive sap bleeding from the trunk, frass from ambrosia beetle feeding, orange fruiting bodies of the fungus Nectria rugulosa and yellowing and browning of the leaves within the tree canopy. MQD threatens commercial and residential product...

The Growth Path of Agricultural Labor Productivity in China: A Latent Growth Curve Model at the Prefectural Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Bin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Given the shrinking proportion of agriculture output and the growing mobility of the labor force in China, how agricultural labor productivity develops has become an increasingly attractive topic for researchers and policy makers. This study aims to depict the development trajectory of agricultural labor productivity in China after its WTO entry. Based on a balanced panel data containing 287 Chinese prefectures from 2000 to 2013, this study applies the Latent Growth Curve Model (LGCM and finds that the agricultural labor productivity follows a piecewise growth path with two breaking points in the years of 2004 and 2009. This may stem from some exogenous stimulus, such as supporting policies launched in the breaking years. Further statistical analysis shows an expanding gap of agricultural labor productivity among different Chinese prefectures.

Timescale stretch parameterization of Type Ia supernova B-band light curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldhaber, G.; Groom, D.E.; Kim, A.; Aldering, G.; Astier, P.; Conley, A.; Deustua, S.E.; Ellis, R.; Fabbro, S.; Fruchter, A.S.; Goobar, A.; Hook, I.; Irwin, M.; Kim, M.; Knop, R.A.; Lidman, C.; McMahon, R.; Nugent, P.E.; Pain, R.; Panagia, N.; Pennypacker, C.R.; Perlmutter, S.; Ruiz-Lapuente, P.; Schaefer, B.; Walton, N.A.; York, T.

2001-01-01

R-band intensity measurements along the light curve of Type Ia supernovae discovered by the Cosmology Project (SCP) are fitted in brightness to templates allowing a free parameter the time-axis width factor w identically equal to s times (1+z). The data points are then individually aligned in the time-axis, normalized and K-corrected back to the rest frame, after which the nearly 1300 normalized intensity measurements are found to lie on a well-determined common rest-frame B-band curve which we call the ''composite curve.'' The same procedure is applied to 18 low-redshift Calan/Tololo SNe with Z < 0.11; these nearly 300 B-band photometry points are found to lie on the composite curve equally well. The SCP search technique produces several measurements before maximum light for each supernova. We demonstrate that the linear stretch factor, s, which parameterizes the light-curve timescale appears independent of z, and applies equally well to the declining and rising parts of the light curve. In fact, the B band template that best fits this composite curve fits the individual supernova photometry data when stretched by a factor s with chi 2/DoF ∼ 1, thus as well as any parameterization can, given the current data sets. The measurement of the data of explosion, however, is model dependent and not tightly constrained by the current data. We also demonstrate the 1 + z light-cure time-axis broadening expected from cosmological expansion. This argues strongly against alternative explanations, such as tired light, for the redshift of distant objects

Theory of titration curves-VII The properties of derivative titration curves for strong acid-strong base and other isovalent ion-combination titrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Meites, T; Meites, L

1970-06-01

This paper deals with isovalent ion-combination titrations based on reactions that can be represented by the equation M(n+) + X(n-) --> MX, where the activity of the product MX is invariant throughout a titration, and with the derivative titration curves obtained by plotting d[M(+)]/dfversus f for such titrations. It describes some of the ways in which such curves can be obtained; it compares and contrasts them both with potentiometric titration curves, which resemble them in shape, and with segmented titration curves, from which they are derived; and it discusses their properties in detail.

A Depletion Protocol for Non-Renewable Natural Resources: Australia as an Example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartlett, Albert A.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the implications of statements by Australia's Minister of Resources that Australia's exports of coal are growing rapidly and that Australia's coal will last '110 years at current rates of production.' If one assumes that coal production P(t), follows a Gaussian curve (similar to a Hubbert curve) one can construct a family of Gaussian curves showing possible future paths of P(t) which are consistent with the cited '110 years.' Each curve reaches a maximum after which P(t) declines toward zero. Knowledge of the present value of dP/dt allows one member of the family to be identified as the most probable future path of P(t). Families of curves and tabular data are presented for resource quantities that would last 50, 100 and 200 years 'at current rates of production.' If, instead, Australia's P(t) follows a declining exponential curve (exp(-kt)) with k = (1/110) per year, the stated quantity of coal will allow production to continue forever, with P(t) declining with a half life of 76 y. This and more rapidly declining exponential paths are the only paths that can be said to be sustainable. The envelope of the family of Gaussian curves divides the (P, t) plane into 'allowed' and 'forbidden' areas. The declining exponential curve divides the 'allowed' area into an upper area that is 'terminal' and a lower area that is 'sustainable.' These facts, coupled with Australia's expectations of rapid growth of its population, suggest that Australia's present resource policies are 'anti-sustainable' and that the people of Australia need to rethink their present policy of rapidly exporting their fossil fuels

A Composite Light Curve Model of the Symbiotic Nova PU Vul (1979

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kato M.

2012-06-01

Full Text Available PU Vul (1979 is a symbiotic nova that shows a long-lasting flat optical peak followed by a slow decline. We made a quasi-evolution model for outbursts on a 0.6 M⊙ white dwarf consisting of a series of static solutions with optically-thin winds. Our theoretical models reproduce well the observed visual/UV light curves as well as the new estimates of the temperature and radius of the hot component. We also modeled the light curve of the 1980 and 1994 eclipses as the total eclipse occulted by a pulsating M-giant companion star. In the second eclipse, the visual magnitude is dominated by nebular emission which is possibly ejected from the hot component between 1990 to 2000. We have quantitatively estimated three components of emission, i.e., the white dwarf, companion and nebular, and made a composite light curve that represents well the evolution of the PU Vul outburst.

Vertex algebras and algebraic curves

CERN Document Server

Frenkel, Edward

2004-01-01

Vertex algebras are algebraic objects that encapsulate the concept of operator product expansion from two-dimensional conformal field theory. Vertex algebras are fast becoming ubiquitous in many areas of modern mathematics, with applications to representation theory, algebraic geometry, the theory of finite groups, modular functions, topology, integrable systems, and combinatorics. This book is an introduction to the theory of vertex algebras with a particular emphasis on the relationship with the geometry of algebraic curves. The notion of a vertex algebra is introduced in a coordinate-independent way, so that vertex operators become well defined on arbitrary smooth algebraic curves, possibly equipped with additional data, such as a vector bundle. Vertex algebras then appear as the algebraic objects encoding the geometric structure of various moduli spaces associated with algebraic curves. Therefore they may be used to give a geometric interpretation of various questions of representation theory. The book co...

Complexity of Curved Glass Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Kosić, T.; Svetel, I.; Cekić, Z.

2017-11-01

Despite the increasing number of research on the architectural structures of curvilinear forms and technological and practical improvement of the glass production observed over recent years, there is still a lack of comprehensive codes and standards, recommendations and experience data linked to real-life curved glass structures applications regarding design, manufacture, use, performance and economy. However, more and more complex buildings and structures with the large areas of glass envelope geometrically complex shape are built every year. The aim of the presented research is to collect data on the existing design philosophy on curved glass structure cases. The investigation includes a survey about how architects and engineers deal with different design aspects of curved glass structures with a special focus on the design and construction process, glass types and structural and fixing systems. The current paper gives a brief overview of the survey findings.

Morse theory on timelike and causal curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Everson, J.; Talbot, C.J.

1976-01-01

It is shown that the set of timelike curves in a globally hyperbolic space-time manifold can be given the structure of a Hilbert manifold under a suitable definition of 'timelike.' The causal curves are the topological closure of this manifold. The Lorentzian energy (corresponding to Milnor's energy, except that the Lorentzian inner product is used) is shown to be a Morse function for the space of causal curves. A fixed end point index theorem is obtained in which a lower bound for the index of the Hessian of the Lorentzian energy is given in terms of the sum of the orders of the conjugate points between the end points. (author)

Decline traffic information system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

2007-09-06

BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

The Nordic Prudent Diet Reduces Risk of Cognitive Decline in the Swedish Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behnaz Shakersain

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Appropriate dietary pattern for preserving cognitive function in northern Europe remains unknown. We aimed to identify a Nordic dietary pattern index associated with slower cognitive decline compared to the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, Mediterranean Diet, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, and Baltic Sea Diet indices. A total of 2223 dementia-free adults aged ≥60 were followed for 6 years. Mini-Mental State Examination was administrated at baseline and follow-ups. Dietary intake was assessed by 98-item food frequency questionnaire, and the Nordic Prudent Dietary Pattern (NPDP was identified. Data were analysed using mixed-effects and parametric survival models and receiver operating characteristic curves with adjustment for potential confounders. Moderate (β = 0.139, 95% CI 0.077−0.201 and high adherence (β = 0.238, 95% CI 0.175−0.300 to NPDP were associated with less cognitive decline compared to other four indices. High adherence to NPDP was also associated with the lowest risk of MMSE decline to ≤24 (HR = 0.176, 95% CI 0.080−0.386 and had the greatest ability to predict such decline (area under the curve = 0.70. Moderate-to-high adherence to the NPDP may predict a better-preserved cognitive function among older adults in Nordic countries. Regional dietary habits should be considered in developing dietary guidelines for the prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.

Microvascular Anastomosis: Proposition of a Learning Curve.

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhtari, Pooneh; Tayebi Meybodi, Ali; Benet, Arnau; Lawton, Michael T

2018-04-14

Learning to perform a microvascular anastomosis is one of the most difficult tasks in cerebrovascular surgery. Previous studies offer little regarding the optimal protocols to maximize learning efficiency. This failure stems mainly from lack of knowledge about the learning curve of this task. To delineate this learning curve and provide information about its various features including acquisition, improvement, consistency, stability, and recall. Five neurosurgeons with an average surgical experience history of 5 yr and without any experience in bypass surgery performed microscopic anastomosis on progressively smaller-caliber silastic tubes (Biomet, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida) during 24 consecutive sessions. After a 1-, 2-, and 8-wk retention interval, they performed recall test on 0.7-mm silastic tubes. The anastomoses were rated based on anastomosis patency and presence of any leaks. Improvement rate was faster during initial sessions compared to the final practice sessions. Performance decline was observed in the first session of working on a smaller-caliber tube. However, this rapidly improved during the following sessions of practice. Temporary plateaus were seen in certain segments of the curve. The retention interval between the acquisition and recall phase did not cause a regression to the prepractice performance level. Learning the fine motor task of microvascular anastomosis adapts to the basic rules of learning such as the "power law of practice." Our results also support the improvement of performance during consecutive sessions of practice. The objective evidence provided may help in developing optimized learning protocols for microvascular anastomosis.

The management of subsurface uncertainty using probabilistic modeling of life cycle production forecasts and cash flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olatunbosun, O. O.

1998-01-01

The subject pertains to the implementation of the full range of subsurface uncertainties in life cycle probabilistic forecasting and its extension to project cash flows using the methodology of probabilities. A new tool has been developed in the probabilistic application of Crystal-Ball which can model reservoir volumetrics, life cycle production forecasts and project cash flows in a single environment. The tool is modular such that the volumetrics and cash flow modules are optional. Production forecasts are often generated by applying a decline equation to single best estimate values of input parameters such as initial potential, decline rate, abandonment rate etc -or sometimes by results of reservoir simulation. This new tool provides a means of implementing the full range of uncertainties and interdependencies of the input parameters into the production forecasts by defining the input parameters as probability density functions, PDFs and performing several iterations to generate an expectation curve forecast. Abandonment rate is implemented in each iteration via a link to an OPEX model. The expectation curve forecast is input into a cash flow model to generate a probabilistic NPV. Base case and sensitivity runs from reservoir simulation can likewise form the basis for a probabilistic production forecast from which a probabilistic cash flow can be generated. A good illustration of the application of this tool is in the modelling of the production forecast for a well that encounters its target reservoirs in OUT/ODT situation and thus has significant uncertainties. The uncertainty in presence and size (if present) of gas cap and dependency between ultimate recovery and initial potential amongst other uncertainties can be easily implemented in the production forecast with this tool. From the expectation curve forecast, a probabilistic NPV can be easily generated. Possible applications of this tool include: i. estimation of range of actual recoverable volumes based

P wave dispersion and maximum P wave duration are independently associated with rapid renal function decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Ho-Ming; Tsai, Wei-Chung; Lin, Tsung-Hsien; Hsu, Po-Chao; Lee, Wen-Hsien; Lin, Ming-Yen; Chen, Szu-Chia; Lee, Chee-Siong; Voon, Wen-Chol; Lai, Wen-Ter; Sheu, Sheng-Hsiung

2012-01-01

The P wave parameters measured by 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly used as noninvasive tools to assess for left atrial enlargement. There are limited studies to evaluate whether P wave parameters are independently associated with decline in renal function. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to assess whether P wave parameters are independently associated with progression to renal end point of ≥25% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). This longitudinal study included 166 patients. The renal end point was defined as ≥25% decline in eGFR. We measured two ECG P wave parameters corrected by heart rate, i.e. corrected P wave dispersion (PWdisperC) and corrected P wave maximum duration (PWdurMaxC). Heart function and structure were measured from echocardiography. Clinical data, P wave parameters, and echocardiographic measurements were compared and analyzed. Forty-three patients (25.9%) reached renal end point. Kaplan-Meier curves for renal end point-free survival showed PWdisperC > median (63.0 ms) (log-rank P = 0.004) and PWdurMaxC > median (117.9 ms) (log-rank Pfunction decline.

Greenhouse and field assessment of rhizobacteria to control guava decline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandre Macedo Almeida

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In an effort to devise a biological strategy to control guava decline, 120 rhizobacteria isolates were obtained from symptomless guava trees located in Meloidogyne enterolobii-infested orchards. Of those isolates, 44 were assessed for their potential to reduce nematode's reproduction: for each isolate, six guava stem cuttings were embedded for eight hours with bacterial suspension and transplanted. Upon development of the roots, the plants were inoculated with 2000 nematode eggs and allowed to grow for four months under greenhouse. Seedlings embedded with water, inoculated or not with the nematode, served as controls. All treatments were equivalent in the five variables that assessed plant development. Several rhizobacteria reduced (p<0.05 the final nematode population (Fp, Fp/gram of root and reproduction factor, although not to satisfactory levels. Subsequently, a two-year experiment was set up in a guava orchard affected by guava decline, in which three of the most effective rhizobacterial isolates were compared with the biological products Nemat® and Nemaplus® for their ability to reduce variables related to nematode parasitism and increase guava productivity. Seven bimonthly applications of these treatments under the tree canopy were unable to reduce nematode parasitism and increase productivity. The decline and death of some plants forced the experiment to be stopped after the first harvest. In conclusion, rhizobacteria applications seem unable to reduce the parasitism of M. enterolobii on guava plants, and even less to reduce the extensive root decay or alleviate the physiological stress suffered by trees affected by guava decline.

A unique UV flare in the optical light curve of the quasar J004457.9+412344

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatzidimitriou D.

2012-12-01

Full Text Available We found that the nova candidate J004457.9+412344 is a radio-quiet quasar at z ∼ 2. Its optical long-term light curve, covering more than half a century, shows quasar typical flux variations superimposed by a spectacular single flare lasting more than one year (observer frame. We could not find comparable light curves among the several thousand catalogued radio-quiet quasars in the stripe 82 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The decreasing part of the flare light curve roughly follows a power law t−5/3. The quasar spectrum, the total energy of the flare, and the decline of the light curve are consistent with the tidal disruption of a ∼10 Mʘ giant star by a supermassive black hole of a few 108 Mʘ. We argue that the alternative explanation by gravitational microlensing is less likely, though it cannot be definitely excluded.

Three-dimensional charge dispersion curves from interactions of 11--29 GeV protons with uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Y.

1980-01-01

Experimental nuclear charge dispersion curves from interactions of 11--29 Gev protons with 238 U have been used in the construction of three-dimensional charge dispersion curves. They show the yield variation with mass number A. Neutron-deficient products are distributed over the entire mass range with a peak at A near 87, while the yield of neutron-excessive products is distributed only in the relatively narrow mass region between A=70 and A=150 and has a maximum around A=115. An isobaric yield curve has been obtained by summing up each of the charge dispersion curves and shows a peak, rather than the flat top, in the mass region A=80 to 140 reported previously. The mass yield curves of neutron-excessive and neutron-deficient products are obtained by a decomposition of the charge dispersion curve with two Gaussians, and the mechanism of formation is suggested

DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS IN THE LIGHT CURVE AMPLITUDE OF Y OPH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pop, Alexandru; Turcu, Vlad; Vamos, Calin

2010-01-01

About two decades after the discovery of the amplitude decline of the light curve of the classical Cepheid Y Oph, its study is resumed using an increased amount of homogenized data and an extended time base. In our approach, the investigation of different time series concerning the light curve amplitude of Y Oph is not only the reason for the present study, but also a stimulus for developing a coherent methodology for studying long- and short-term variability phenomena in variable stars, taking into account the details of concrete observing conditions: amount of data, data sampling, time base, and individual errors of observational data. The statistical significance of this decreasing trend was estimated by assuming its linearity. We approached the decision-making process by formulating adequate null and alternative hypotheses, and testing the value of the regression line slope for different data sets via Monte Carlo simulations. A variability analysis, through various methods, of the original data and of the residuals obtained after removing the linear trend was performed. We also proposed a new statistical test, based on amplitude spectrum analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, intended to evaluate how detectible is a given (linear) trend in well-defined observing conditions: the trend detection probability. The main conclusion of our study on Y Oph is that, even if the false alarm probability is low enough to consider the decreasing trend to be statistically significant, the available data do not allow us to obtain a reasonably powerful test. We are able to confirm the light curve amplitude decline, and the order of magnitude of its slope with a better statistical substantiation. According to the obtained values of the trend detection probability, it seems that the trend we are dealing with is marked by a low detectibility. Our attempt to find signs of possible variability phenomena at shorter timescales ended by emphasizing the relative constancy of our data

Reinforcement Toolbox, a Parametric Reinforcement Modelling Tool for Curved Surface Structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauppe, J.; Rolvink, A.; Coenders, J.L.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a computational strategy and parametric modelling toolbox which aim at enhancing the design- and production process of reinforcement in freeform curved surface structures. The computational strategy encompasses the necessary steps of raising an architectural curved surface model

The natural history of cardiac and pulmonary function decline in patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberto, Rolando; Fritz, Anto; Hagar, Yolanda; Boice, Braden; Skalsky, Andrew; Hwang, Hosun; Beckett, Laurel; McDonald, Craig; Gupta, Munish

2011-07-01

Retrospective review of scoliosis progression, pulmonary and cardiac function in a series of patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). To determine whether operative treatment of scoliosis decreases the rate of pulmonary function loss in patients with DMD. It is generally accepted that surgical intervention should be undertaken in DMD scoliosis once curve sizes reach 35° to allow intervention before critical respiratory decline has occurred. There are conflicting reports, however, regarding the effect of scoliosis stabilization on the rate of pulmonary function decline when compared to nonoperative cohorts. We reviewed spinal radiographs, echocardiograms, and spirometry, hospital, and operative records of all patients seen at our tertiary referral center from July 1, 1992 to June 1, 2007. Data were recorded to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) and analyzed with SAS (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) and R statistical processing software (www.r-project.org). The percent predicted forced vital capacity (PPFVC) decreased 5% per year before operation. The mean PPFVC was 54% (SD = 21%) before operation with a mean postoperative PPFVC of 43% (SD = 14%). Surgical treatment was associated with a 12% decline in PPFVC independent of other treatment variables. PPFVC after operation declined at a rate of 1% per year and while this rate was lower, it was not significantly different than the rate of decline present before operation (P = 0.18). Cardiac function as measured by left ventricular fractional shortening declined at a rate of 1% per year with most individuals exhibiting a left ventricular fractional shortening rate of more than 30 before operation. Operative treatment of scoliosis in DMD using the Luque Galveston method was associated with a reduction of forced vital capacity related to operation. The rate of pulmonary function decline after operation was not significantly reduced when compared with the rate of preoperative forced vital capacity decline.

Study of the role of complete fusion in the reaction of /sup 48/Ca and /sup 56/Fe with cerium and terbium. [Cross sections, yield curves, tables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrissey, D.J.

1978-05-01

/sup 48/Ca and /sup 56/Fe beams from the Super HILAC accelerator were used to irradiate thick metal foils of cerium and terbium. Product gamma ray activities were detected offline and individual products were identified by half-life, gamma ray energy and gamma ray abundances. The production cross sections were iteratively fit to charge and mass dispersions to allow correction for parent decay and calculation of mass yields. From the mass yield curves contributions from quasielastic transfer, deep inelastic transfer and complete fusion reaction mechanisms were interred. Complete fusion was made up on contributions from both evaporation residue and fusion-fission products for the /sup 48/Ca induced reactions. However, only fusion-fission products were detected in the /sup 56/Fe induced reactions. Critical angular momenta for fusion were found to be 82 +- 8 h for /sup 48/Ca + /sup 159/Tb and 34 +- 5 h for /sup 56/Fe + /sup 140/Ce, which can be compared with 53 +- 8 h for /sup 12/C + /sup 197/Au (Natowitz, 1970) and 86 +- 5 h for /sup 40/Ar + /sup 165/Ho (Hanappe, 1973). All of these reactions lead to essentially the same compound nucleus and seem to show the dramatic decline in complete fusion for heavy ions larger than /sup 40/Ar. The prediction of this decline was found to be beyond the model calculations of Bass and the critical distance approach of Glas and Mosel.

Consequences of dietary energy source and energy level on energy balance, lactogenic hormones, and lactation curve characteristics of cows after a short or omitted dry period.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hoeij, R J; Dijkstra, J; Bruckmaier, R M; Gross, J J; Lam, T J G M; Remmelink, G J; Kemp, B; van Knegsel, A T M

2017-10-01

30-d DP decreased both the increasing and the declining slope parameters of the lactation curve and the relative rate of decline in milk yield (indicating greater lactation persistency) compared with a 0-d DP, and decreased plasma insulin and IGF-1 concentration, and EB. In conclusion, feeding a G ration after wk 7 in milk improved energy intake and milk production, but did not affect EB compared with an L ration. For cows without a DP, a reduced dietary energy level did not affect milk production and lactation curve characteristics, but did decrease EB and weekly body weight gain. A 30-d DP increased milk yield and lactation persistency, but decreased milk fat and protein content, EB, and plasma insulin and IGF-1, compared with a 0-d DP. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Health 'Kuznets' Curve'? Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Evidence on Concentration Indices'.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-Font, Joan; Hernandez-Quevedo, Cristina; Sato, Azusa

2018-01-01

The distribution of income related health inequalities appears to exhibit changing patterns when both developing countries and developed countries are examined. This paper tests for the existence of a health Kuznets' curve; that is, an inverse U-shape pattern between economic developments (as measured by GDP per capita) and income-related health inequalities (as measured by concentration indices). We draw upon both cross sectional (the World Health Survey) and a long longitudinal (the European Community Household Panel survey) dataset. Our results suggest evidence of a health Kuznets' curve on per capita income. We find a polynomial association where inequalities decline when GDP per capita reaches a magnitude ranging between $26,000 and $38,700. That is, income-related health inequalities rise with GDP per capita, but tail off once a threshold level of economic development has been attained.

An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Ke; Feng, Lianyong; Wang, Jianliang; Xiong, Yi; Tverberg, Gail E.

2016-01-01

In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oil is likely to be especially affected by low prices because it tends to be high-priced to extract. To estimate the impact prices might have on future Chinese oil production, we develop a model in which only future unconventional oil production is affected by price. We analyze three price scenarios: Stays Low, Best Estimate, and Ever-Rising Prices. In these scenarios, remaining Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) are estimated to be 10%, 50%, and 90% of remaining Technically Recoverable Resources, respectively. Since oil price can be expected to affect the shape of the extraction curve, we spread estimated URR to year using models that do not assume that future production will ultimately produce a symmetric Hubbert-type curve (Multi-Cycle Generalized Weng Model and Stochastic Resource-Constrained Growth Model). In the Best Estimate Scenario, China's oil production is expected to reach a maximum of 226.79 million tons in 2020. In the Ever-Rising Prices Scenario, China's maximum oil production occurs in 2023. In the Stays Low Scenario, maximum production has already been reached. - Highlights: • China's conventional oil reached a peak in 2010 and has begun to decline. • Unconventional oil production will be especially adversely affected by low prices. • Rising selling price of oil may lead to recession, bringing prices back down. • China's total oil supply appears likely to peak about 2020. • Likely oil production is less than Technically Recoverable Resources.

Functional and structural causes of forests productivity decay with age: experimental analysis of a chrono-sequence of maritime pine stands; Causes fonctionnelles et structurales du declin de productivite des forets avec l'age: analyse experimentale d'une chronosequence de peuplements de pin maritime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Delzon, S.

2004-06-15

The aim of this work was to understand the causes of forest growth decline with increasing age. We investigated changes in several eco-physiological parameters in a chrono-sequence of four even-aged maritime pine stands. Above-ground productivity declined by a factor of 2.5 from the youngest to the oldest stands. This decline was explained by a decrease of gross primary production, due to a decline in both stand leaf area and foliar productivity. Our measurements clearly showed a decrease in leaf-specific hydraulic conductance with increasing tree height (50% lower in 30 m trees than in 10 m trees). We also found that needle water potential was maintained above a minimum threshold value of -2.0 MPa independently of tree age and height. This hydraulic homeostasis occurred through a decline in leaf / sapwood area ratio (hydraulic compensation) and a decline in stomatal conductance (physiological compensation). Both the increased investment in non-productive versus productive tissues and stomatal closure may have contributed to the observed decrease in foliar productivity with increasing tree height. Consequently, over-storey transpiration was reduced by a factor of three between the 10-yr and the 91-yr old stands. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the total ecosystem evaporation remains constant in ageing forests due to an increase in under-storey transpiration, which may counterbalance the decrease in tree transpiration. Photosynthetic capacity also decreased in older stands, mainly through a decline in phosphorus concentration. Our results support the hypothesis that the age-related decline in forest growth is associated with decreased availability of the most limiting resource, this being phosphorus for the maritime Pine chrono-sequence investigated. (author)

Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Asseng, Senthold; Cammarano, Davide; Basso, Bruno; Chung, Uran; Alderman, Phillip D; Sonder, Kai; Reynolds, Matthew; Lobell, David B

2017-06-01

Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Curvas de lactação de vacas holandesas do Estado do Paraná, Brasil Lactation curves of Holstein cows in the state of Parana, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Forte Maiolino Molento

2004-10-01

Full Text Available Dados do Programa de Análise de Rebanhos Leiteiros do Paraná (PARLPR - APCBRH, contendo 27029 lactações encerradas de 422 rebanhos, foram utilizados para a visualização das curvas de lactação. As curvas foram calculadas de acordo com três grupos de parição e seis níveis de produção. A produção no momento do pico aumenta à medida que aumenta o nível de produção do rebanho ou a ordem de parição. O declínio diário aumenta à medida que aumenta o nível de produção do rebanho, para animais de segunda ou mais lactações; para animais de primeira lactação, não se observou tendência para esta característica. As curvas e os valores de pico e persistência obtidos podem ser utilizados como instrumentos de manejo em fazendas leiteiras do Paraná.A data set from the dairy herd analysis system in the State of Parana, Brazil (PARLPR - APCBRH, containing 27029 lactation records from 422 herds, was used to plot lactation curves. Lactation curves were plotted according to three parity groups and six levels of production. Production at peak increases with increases in herd production level and with increases in lactation number. Daily decline increases with increases in herd production level, in the case of second or greater lactation; for first lactation animals, no trend was identified for this characteristic. The curves, peak and persistency values obtained are to be used as management tools on dairy farms in the State of Parana.

Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Kantner, Colleen; Lekov, Alex; Meyers, Stephen; Rosenquist, Gregory; Buskirk, Robert Van; Yang, Hung-Chia; Desroches, Louis-Benoit

2011-10-31

The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.

Marginal cost curves for water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: a policy and decision making guide for efficient water use in crop production

Science.gov (United States)

Chukalla, Abebe; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2016-04-01

Reducing water footprints (WF) in irrigated crop production is an essential element in water management, particularly in water-scarce areas. To achieve this, policy and decision making need to be supported with information on marginal cost curves that rank measures to reduce the WF according to their cost-effectiveness and enable the estimation of the cost associated with a certain WF reduction target, e.g. towards a certain reasonable WF benchmark. This paper aims to develop marginal cost curves (MCC) for WF reduction. The AquaCrop model is used to explore the effect of different measures on evapotranspiration and crop yield and thus WF that is used as input in the MCC. Measures relate to three dimensions of management practices: irrigation techniques (furrow, sprinkler, drip and subsurface drip); irrigation strategies (full and deficit irrigation); and mulching practices (no mulching, organic and synthetic mulching). A WF benchmark per crop is calculated as resulting from the best-available production technology. The marginal cost curve is plotted using the ratios of the marginal cost to WF reduction of the measures as ordinate, ranking with marginal costs rise with the increase of the reduction effort. For each measure, the marginal cost to reduce WF is estimated by comparing the associated WF and net present value (NPV) to the reference case (furrow irrigation, full irrigation, no mulching). The NPV for each measure is based on its capital costs, operation and maintenances costs (O&M) and revenues. A range of cases is considered, including: different crops, soil types and different environments. Key words: marginal cost curve, water footprint benchmark, soil water balance, crop growth, AquaCrop

Prognostic significance of an early decline in serum alpha-fetoprotein during chemotherapy for ovarian yolk sac tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Motte Rouge, Thibault; Pautier, Patricia; Genestie, Catherine; Rey, Annie; Gouy, Sébastien; Leary, Alexandra; Haie-Meder, Christine; Kerbrat, Pierre; Culine, Stéphane; Fizazi, Karim; Lhommé, Catherine

2016-09-01

The ovarian yolk sac tumor (OYST) is a very rare malignancy arising in young women. Our objective was to determine whether an early decline in serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) during chemotherapy has a prognostic impact. This retrospective study is based on prospectively recorded OYST cases at Gustave Roussy (Cancer Treatment Center). Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The serum AFP decline was calculated with the formula previously developed and validated in male patients with poor prognosis non-seminomatous germ cell tumors. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the log-rank test and logistic regression, respectively. Data on AFP were available to calculate an early AFP decline in 57 patients. All patients had undergone surgery followed by chemotherapy. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) rates were 86% (95% CI: 74%-93%) and 84% (95% CI: 73%-91%), respectively. The disease stage, presence of ascites at presentation, use of the BEP regimen, serum AFP half-life and an early AFP decline were significantly predictive factors for OS and EFS in the univariate analysis. The OS rate was 100% and 49% (95% CI: 26%-72%) in patients with a favorable AFP decline and in those with an unfavorable decline, respectively (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, only the presence of ascites at diagnosis (RR=7.3, p=0.03) and an unfavorable early AFP decline (RR=16.9, p<0.01) were significant negative predictive factors for OS. An early AFP decline during chemotherapy is an independent prognostic factor in patients with OYSTs. No conflict of interest. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Theoretical explanations of the rapid fertility decline in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C

1986-07-01

A 1982 population census recorded China's fertility rate in 1982 at 2.6; recent statistics of China's State Statistics Bureau record China's 1984 birth rate at 17 per 1000 and the total fertility rate at 1.94. Wu Cangping asserts that this world-recognized rapid fertility decline is not due to any compulsory governmental restrictions on fertility, but to the people's willingness to control fertility voluntarily. He cites a number of socioeconomic factors contributing to this voluntary decline in China's birth rates: 1) change of family function; 2) decline of mortality, particularly infant mortality; 3) improvement in the educational level; 4) improvement in women's social status, especially increased employment; 5) better social security services for the elderly; 6) the preference for modern ways of production and life; and 7) the availability of information on population and birth control. He attributes these factors to the socialist system with its nationalized production, centralized planning of the national economy, and the even distribution system which prevents polarization of earning. In addition, reforms have been carried out in all aspects of social life and recent advances have been made in science and technology. All of these factors have resulted in a more rapid fertility transition in China as compared to that of developed countries in their past and that of developing countries at present.

Aging-dependent decline of IL-10 producing B cells coincides with production of antinuclear antibodies but not rheumatoid factors.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Geest, Kornelis S M; Lorencetti, Pedro G; Abdulahad, Wayel H; Horst, Gerda; Huitema, Minke; Roozendaal, Caroline; Kroesen, Bart-Jan; Brouwer, Elisabeth; Boots, Annemieke M H

2016-03-01

Aging is associated with development of autoimmunity. Loss of B cell tolerance in the elderly is suggested by an increased prevalence of anti-nuclear antibodies (ANAs) and rheumatoid factors (RFs). Accumulating evidence indicates that B cells also impact autoimmunity via secretion of cytokines. So far, few studies have directly assessed the effect of aging on the latter B cell function. Here, we determined if and how human aging influences the production of cytokines by B cells. In a cross-sectional study, we found that absolute numbers of circulating B cells were similar in 31 young (ages 19-39) and 73 old (age ≥ 60) individuals. Numbers of transitional B cells (CD19(+)CD27(-)CD38(High)CD24(High)) were decreased in old individuals, whereas numbers of naive and memory B cell subsets were comparable in young and old individuals. Short-term in vitro stimulation of whole blood samples revealed that numbers of B cells capable of producing TNF-α were similar in young and old individuals. In contrast, B cells capable of IL-10 production were decreased in old subjects. This decline of IL-10(+) B cells was observed in old individuals that were ANA positive, and in those that were negative for both ANAs and RFs. However, IL-10(+) B cells were remarkably well retained in the circulation of old subjects that were RF positive. Thus, pro-inflammatory TNF-α(+) B cells are retained in the elderly, whereas IL-10(+) B cells generally decline. In addition, our findings indicate that IL-10(+) B cells may differentially impact the development of ANAs and RFs in the elderly. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land use, fishing, climate change, and decline of Thompson River, British Columbia, coho salmon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradford, M. J.; Irvine, J. R. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC (Canada)

2000-01-01

Reasons for the decline in abundance of Pacific salmon population in the Thompson River watershed in British Columbia was investigated. Results suggests that the decline could be the result of a declining trend in productivity related to changes in ocean conditions, overfishing, and changes in the freshwater habitat. The abundance of salmon correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and qualitative changes in stream habitat status; logging appeared to have had no such effect. It was concluded that salmon populations will continue to decline unless limits on fishing are strictly enforced, and unless salmon producing watersheds are restored and ocean conditions are significantly improved . 12 refs., 2 figs.

The Supercritical Pile Gamma-Ray Burst Model: The GRB Afterglow Steep Decline and Plateau Phase

Science.gov (United States)

Sultana, Joseph; Kazanas, D.; Mastichiadis, A.

2013-01-01

We present a process that accounts for the steep decline and plateau phase of the Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) light curves, vexing features of gamma-ray burst (GRB) phenomenology. This process is an integral part of the "supercritical pile" GRB model, proposed a few years ago to account for the conversion of the GRB kinetic energy into radiation with a spectral peak at E(sub pk) is approx. m(sub e)C(exp 2). We compute the evolution of the relativistic blast wave (RBW) Lorentz factor Gamma to show that the radiation-reaction force due to the GRB emission can produce an abrupt, small (approx. 25%) decrease in Gamma at a radius that is smaller (depending on conditions) than the deceleration radius R(sub D). Because of this reduction, the kinematic criticality criterion of the "supercritical pile" is no longer fulfilled. Transfer of the proton energy into electrons ceases and the GRB enters abruptly the afterglow phase at a luminosity smaller by approx. m(sub p)/m(sub e) than that of the prompt emission. If the radius at which this slow-down occurs is significantly smaller than R(sub D), the RBW internal energy continues to drive the RBW expansion at a constant (new) Gamma and its X-ray luminosity remains constant until R(sub D) is reached, at which point it resumes its more conventional decay, thereby completing the "unexpected" XRT light curve phase. If this transition occurs at R is approx. equal to R(sub D), the steep decline is followed by a flux decrease instead of a "plateau," consistent with the conventional afterglow declines. Besides providing an account of these peculiarities, the model suggests that the afterglow phase may in fact begin before the RBW reaches R is approx. equal to R(sub D), thus providing novel insights into GRB phenomenology.

Towards freeform curved blazed gratings using diamond machining

Science.gov (United States)

Bourgenot, C.; Robertson, D. J.; Stelter, D.; Eikenberry, S.

2016-07-01

Concave blazed gratings greatly simplify the architecture of spectrographs by reducing the number of optical components. The production of these gratings using diamond-machining offers practically no limits in the design of the grating substrate shape, with the possibility of making large sag freeform surfaces unlike the alternative and traditional method of holography and ion etching. In this paper, we report on the technological challenges and progress in the making of these curved blazed gratings using an ultra-high precision 5 axes Moore-Nanotech machine. We describe their implementation in an integral field unit prototype called IGIS (Integrated Grating Imaging Spectrograph) where freeform curved gratings are used as pupil mirrors. The goal is to develop the technologies for the production of the next generation of low-cost, compact, high performance integral field unit spectrometers.

Estimating the Lactation Curve on a.m./p.m. Milkings in Dairy Cows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludovic Toma Cziszter

2013-10-01

Full Text Available A pilot study was conducted in order to assess the effect of a.m./p.m. milkings on the shape of the lactation curve during a normal lactation. Data from a.m. and p.m. milkings from 86 Romanian Spotted cows were used. Cows calved during January, February and March 2011 and concluded their lactations by the end of February 2012. Results showed that there was a difference between morning and evening milkings regarding the shape of the lactation curve. The shape of the lactation curve for morning milking was more resembling to the shape of the lactation curve for total daily milk. Modelling the lactation curve with gamma incomplete function led to a milk production estimate very close to the real production, although the model overestimated the yield in early lactation and underestimated it in middle lactation. If alternative milkings are going to use for milk yield estimation it is preferable to measure the evening milking at the beginning.

Handgrip strength predicts functional decline at discharge in hospitalized male elderly: a hospital cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen García-Peña

Full Text Available Functional decline after hospitalization is a common adverse outcome in elderly. An easy to use, reproducible and accurate tool to identify those at risk would aid focusing interventions in those at higher risk. Handgrip strength has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in other settings. The aim of this study was to determine if handgrip strength measured upon admission to an acute care facility would predict functional decline (either incident or worsening of preexisting at discharge among older Mexican, stratified by gender. In addition, cutoff points as a function of specificity would be determined. A cohort study was conducted in two hospitals in Mexico City. The primary endpoint was functional decline on discharge, defined as a 30-point reduction in the Barthel Index score from that of the baseline score. Handgrip strength along with other variables was measured at initial assessment, including: instrumental activities of daily living, cognition, depressive symptoms, delirium, hospitalization length and quality of life. All analyses were stratified by gender. Logistic regression to test independent association between handgrip strength and functional decline was performed, along with estimation of handgrip strength test values (specificity, sensitivity, area under the curve, etc.. A total of 223 patients admitted to an acute care facility between 2007 and 2009 were recruited. A total of 55 patients (24.7% had functional decline, 23.46% in male and 25.6% in women. Multivariate analysis showed that only males with low handgrip strength had an increased risk of functional decline at discharge (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.98, p = 0.01, with a specificity of 91.3% and a cutoff point of 20.65 kg for handgrip strength. Females had not a significant association between handgrip strength and functional decline. Measurement of handgrip strength on admission to acute care facilities may identify male elderly patients at risk of having functional decline

Handgrip Strength Predicts Functional Decline at Discharge in Hospitalized Male Elderly: A Hospital Cohort Study

Science.gov (United States)

García-Peña, Carmen; García-Fabela, Luis C.; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis M.; García-González, Jose J.; Arango-Lopera, Victoria E.; Pérez-Zepeda, Mario U.

2013-01-01

Functional decline after hospitalization is a common adverse outcome in elderly. An easy to use, reproducible and accurate tool to identify those at risk would aid focusing interventions in those at higher risk. Handgrip strength has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in other settings. The aim of this study was to determine if handgrip strength measured upon admission to an acute care facility would predict functional decline (either incident or worsening of preexisting) at discharge among older Mexican, stratified by gender. In addition, cutoff points as a function of specificity would be determined. A cohort study was conducted in two hospitals in Mexico City. The primary endpoint was functional decline on discharge, defined as a 30-point reduction in the Barthel Index score from that of the baseline score. Handgrip strength along with other variables was measured at initial assessment, including: instrumental activities of daily living, cognition, depressive symptoms, delirium, hospitalization length and quality of life. All analyses were stratified by gender. Logistic regression to test independent association between handgrip strength and functional decline was performed, along with estimation of handgrip strength test values (specificity, sensitivity, area under the curve, etc.). A total of 223 patients admitted to an acute care facility between 2007 and 2009 were recruited. A total of 55 patients (24.7%) had functional decline, 23.46% in male and 25.6% in women. Multivariate analysis showed that only males with low handgrip strength had an increased risk of functional decline at discharge (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79–0.98, p = 0.01), with a specificity of 91.3% and a cutoff point of 20.65 kg for handgrip strength. Females had not a significant association between handgrip strength and functional decline. Measurement of handgrip strength on admission to acute care facilities may identify male elderly patients at risk of having functional decline, and

Light mirror reflection combined with heating/cooling curves as a method of studying phase transitions in transparent and opaque petroleum products: Apparatus and theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shishkin, Yu.L.

2007-01-01

A portable low weight low cost apparatus 'Phasafot' and method for determining pour and cloud points of petroleum products, as well as precipitation and melting temperatures of paraffins in both transparent (diesel fuels), semi-transparent (lube oils) and opaque (crude oils) samples are described. The method consists in illuminating the surface of a sample with an oblique light beam and registering the intensity of specularly reflected light while heating/cooling the sample in the temperature range of its structural transitions. The mirror reflection of a light beam from an ideally smooth liquid surface falls in intensity when the surface becomes rough (dim) due to crystal formation. Simultaneous recording of the temperature ramp curve and the mirror reflection curve enables the determination of the beginning and end of crystallization of paraffins in both transparent and opaque petroleum products. Besides, their rheological properties can be accurately determined by rocking or tilting the instrument while monitoring the sample movement via its mirror reflection

Analysis of power curves of Danish and foreign wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, H.

1995-12-01

This report describes an analysis of power curves for a number of wind turbines, 30 Danish and 17 foreign - European - wind turbines. The investigation is limited to wind turbines of 150 kW capacity and greater, and to wind turbines for which a power curve is available. The power curves are transformed into a common, uniform presentation in order to facilitate the succeeding treatment, which primarily is the calculation of the production of electrical energy yielded per year. From the known data of the wind turbine, equipped generator power and rotor area and the area swept by the blades, the specific electrical production is calculated in three terms: yield per square meter of rotor area, yield per kW generator power and yield per square meter and per kilowatt generator power. Based on these findings a number of comparisons are established, such as comparisons of conceptual designs and technical- economical evaluations. (au)

Decline in word-finding: The objective cognitive finding most relevant to patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Pauli, Carla; de Oliveira Thais, Maria Emilia Rodrigues; Guarnieri, Ricardo; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Ben, Juliana; Linhares, Marcelo Neves; Markowitsch, Hans Joachim; Wolf, Peter; Wiebe, Samuel; Lin, Katia; Walz, Roger

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the following: i) the objective impairment in neuropsychological tests that were associated with the subjective perception of cognitive function decline in Brazilian patients who underwent mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) surgery and ii) the predictive variables for those impaired objective neuropsychological tests. Forty-eight adults with MTLE (27 right HS and 23 male) were divided according to their perception of changes (Decline or No-decline) of cognitive function domain of the QOLIE-31 questionnaire applied before and 1year after the ATL. The mean (SD) of changes in the raw score difference of the neuropsychological tests before and after the ATL was compared between Decline and No-decline groups. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to assess the optimum cutoff points of neuropsychological test score changes to predict patient-reported subjective cognitive decline. Six (12.5%) patients reported a perception of cognitive function decline after ATL. Among the 25 cognitive tests analyzed, only changes in the Boston Naming Test (BNT) were associated with subjective cognitive decline reported by patients. A reduction of ≥8 points in the raw score of BNT after surgery had 91% of sensitivity and 45% specificity for predicting subjective perception of cognitive function decline by the patient. Left side surgery and age older than 40years were more associated with an important BNT reduction with overall accuracy of 91.7%, 95% predictive ability for no impairment, and 75% for impairment of cognitive function. Impairment in word-finding seems to be the objective cognitive finding most relevant to Brazilian patients after mesial temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. Similar to American patients, the side of surgery and age are good predictors for no decline in the BNT, but shows a lower accuracy to predict its decline. If replicated in other populations, the

Declines in peer conflict from preschool through first grade: influences from early attachment and social information processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Raikes, H Abigail; Virmani, Elita A; Thompson, Ross A; Hatton, Holly

2013-01-01

The transition from preschool to early school years is critical for the growth of social skills. Using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (for this study N = 942), the purpose of this study was to evaluate the longitudinal influence of attachment security and social information processing skills (social problem-solving and hostile attribution biases) on normative changes in peer conflict over the transition from preschool to first grade. Using latent growth curve modeling (LGM), this study found that children exhibited progressive declines in peer conflict over this period. Security of attachment (assessed via the Attachment Q-Set at 24 months) was related to lower rates of peer conflict in first grade, and steeper declines in peer conflict from 54 to 84 months. Differences in children's social information processing (assessed at 54 months) were marginally related to steeper declines in peer conflict. These findings suggest that the social skills and social expectations associated with early attachment security, together with subsequent advances in social information processing, are related to changes in peer conflict during the transition to school.

Survey: Did the TFP Growth Rate in Japan Decline in the 1990s?(in Japanese)

OpenAIRE

INUI Tomohiko; KWON Hyeog Ug

2004-01-01

This paper surveys the body of research grounded on a basic question "Did the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in Japan decline in the 1990s?" In addition, using industry-level data of the Japan Industrial Productivity Database (JIP database) we estimate the mark-ups and the degree of returns to scale and then re-estimate TFP growth rates. Most of studies reviewed in this paper show a decline in TFP growth in the 1990s at the macro-level and the industry-level. There are some studi...

Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

2018-05-01

The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: Turning the corner from declining first birth rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion Burkimsher

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: In the period 1995-2002 there was a change in trajectory from decline to rise in first birth fertility rates across Europe. Objective: A number of previous studies have looked at the demographic causes of the transition. This study evaluates their conclusions by analysing a comprehensive set of indicators for fifteen countries with data in the Human Fertility Database. Methods: Comparisons are made between the four years before and after the fertility trough, to discover what changed between these two periods. Results: In the period before the trough, peak age-specific fertility rates were falling; these tended to stabilise after the year of minimum fertility. The width of the fertility curve, however, was already widening in the 1990s, and this trend continued. The transition from fall to rise in TFR1 occurred when the increase in the width of the curve more than compensated for any further falls in peak rates; this explanation is valid for countries in both Eastern and Western Europe. The increasing width of the fertility curve was caused by two factors: the decline in young (pre-modal fertility slowed, whilst the rise in older (post-modal fertility accelerated. For some countries, a rise in underlying cohort rates also contributed to the rise in period rates. The likelihood of childless women entering motherhood also rose in some but not all countries. Conclusions: During the 1990s, women were postponing first births across Europe. A rebound took place for several reasons, with the overarching driver being the strong rise in late fertility. Comments: In some countries the steep rise in late fertility had an unexpected and paradoxical effect on postponement rates (defined as the year-on-year increase in mean age at first birth. Recuperation at post-modal ages of postponed first births caused an acceleration in 'postponement' rates, as defined by this metric.

Multivariable Real-Time Control of Viscosity Curve for a Continuous Production Process of a Non-Newtonian Fluid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Mei

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The application of a multivariable predictive controller to the mixing process for the production of a non-Newtonian fluid is discussed in this work. A data-driven model has been developed to describe the dynamic behaviour of the rheological properties of the fluid as a function of the operating conditions using experimental data collected in a pilot plant. The developed model provides a realistic process representation and it is used to test and verify the multivariable controller, which has been designed to maintain viscosity curves of the non-Newtonian fluid within a given region of the viscosity-vs-shear rate plane in presence of process disturbances occurring in the mixing process.

Involvement of an autotoxic compound in asparagus decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato-Noguchi, Hisashi; Nakamura, Keisuke; Okuda, Nobuyuki

2018-03-19

Asparagus (Asparagus officinalis L.) is a widely cultivated perennial veritable and can be harvested more than ten years. However, the crop quality and yield decline after a few year's cultivation, which is called "asparagus decline". Even though those asparagus plants were replaced with new young asparagus plants, the productivity and quality of the crop remain relatively low, which is known as a "asparagus replant problem". One of the possible reasons for "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem" is thought to be autotoxicity of asparagus. However, the compounds involved in the autotoxicity is not clear. The objective of this study was therefore to determine the potential role of autotoxicity in the "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem". An aqueous methanol extract of 10-year-asparagus-cultivated soils inhibited the growth of asparagus seedlings and other two test plants with concentration dependent manner. The result confirmed that the asparagus soils have autotoxic activity. The extract was then purified by several chromatographies with monitoring the inhibitory activity and a potent growth inhibitory substance causing the autotoxic effect was isolated. The chemical structures of the compound was determined by spectral data to be trans-cinnamic acid. trans-Cinnamic acid inhibited the growth of asparagus seedlings at concentrations greater than 10 μM. The concentrations required for 50% growth inhibition of asparagus (IC 50 ) were 24.1-41.6 μM. trans-Cinnamic acid accumulated 174 μM in the 10-year-asparagus-cultivated soils, which may be enough levels to cause the growth inhibition on asparagus considering its IC 50 value. Therefore, trans-cinnamic acid may contribute to the autotoxic effect of asparagus soils, and may be in part responsible for "asparagus decline" and "asparagus replant problem". Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Soil fertility decline and economic policy reform in Sub-Saharan Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heerink, N.B.M.

2005-01-01

Two decades of economic reforms in Africa have not resulted in the anticipated growth in per capita agricultural production. Declining output-fertiliser price ratios, particularly for food crops, contributed to soil fertility depletion and agricultural stagnation. Current prices of agricultural

THE IMPORTANCE OF {sup 56}Ni IN SHAPING THE LIGHT CURVES OF TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakar, Ehud; Poznanski, Dovi [The Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel); Katz, Boaz [Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100 (Israel)

2016-06-01

What intrinsic properties shape the light curves of SNe II? To address this question we derive observational measures that are robust (i.e., insensitive to detailed radiative transfer) and constrain the contribution from {sup 56}Ni as well as a combination of the envelope mass, progenitor radius, and explosion energy. By applying our methods to a sample of SNe II from the literature, we find that a {sup 56}Ni contribution is often significant. In our sample, its contribution to the time-weighted integrated luminosity during the photospheric phase ranges between 8% and 72% with a typical value of 30%. We find that the {sup 56}Ni relative contribution is anti-correlated with the luminosity decline rate. When added to other clues, this in turn suggests that the flat plateaus often observed in SNe II are not a generic feature of the cooling envelope emission, and that without {sup 56}Ni many of the SNe that are classified as II-P would have shown a decline rate that is steeper by up to 1 mag/100 days. Nevertheless, we find that the cooling envelope emission, and not {sup 56}Ni contribution, is the main driver behind the observed range of decline rates. Furthermore, contrary to previous suggestions, our findings indicate that fast decline rates are not driven by lower envelope masses. We therefore suggest that the difference in observed decline rates is mainly a result of different density profiles of the progenitors.

Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in a tourism development context.

Science.gov (United States)

de Vita, Glauco; Katircioglu, Salih; Altinay, Levent; Fethi, Sami; Mercan, Mehmet

2015-11-01

This study investigates empirically an extended version of the Environmental Kuznets Curve model that controls for tourism development. We find that international tourist arrivals into Turkey alongside income, squared income and energy consumption, cointegrate with CO2 emissions. Tourist arrivals, growth, and energy consumption exert a positive and significant impact on CO2 emissions in the long-run. Our results provide empirical support to EKC hypothesis showing that at exponential levels of growth, CO2 emissions decline. The findings suggest that despite the environmental degradation stemming from tourism development, policies aimed at environmental protection should not be pursued at the expense of tourism-led growth.

Stenting for curved lesions using a novel curved balloon: Preliminary experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomita, Hideshi; Higaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Fujii, Takanari; Fujimoto, Kazuto

2015-08-01

Stenting may be a compelling approach to dilating curved lesions in congenital heart diseases. However, balloon-expandable stents, which are commonly used for congenital heart diseases, are usually deployed in a straight orientation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of stenting with a novel curved balloon considered to provide better conformability to the curved-angled lesion. In vitro experiments: A Palmaz Genesis(®) stent (Johnson & Johnson, Cordis Co, Bridgewater, NJ, USA) mounted on the Goku(®) curve (Tokai Medical Co. Nagoya, Japan) was dilated in vitro to observe directly the behavior of the stent and balloon assembly during expansion. Animal experiment: A short Express(®) Vascular SD (Boston Scientific Co, Marlborough, MA, USA) stent and a long Express(®) Vascular LD stent (Boston Scientific) mounted on the curved balloon were deployed in the curved vessel of a pig to observe the effect of stenting in vivo. In vitro experiments: Although the stent was dilated in a curved fashion, stent and balloon assembly also rotated conjointly during expansion of its curved portion. In the primary stenting of the short stent, the stent was dilated with rotation of the curved portion. The excised stent conformed to the curved vessel. As the long stent could not be negotiated across the mid-portion with the balloon in expansion when it started curving, the mid-portion of the stent failed to expand fully. Furthermore, the balloon, which became entangled with the stent strut, could not be retrieved even after complete deflation. This novel curved balloon catheter might be used for implantation of the short stent in a curved lesion; however, it should not be used for primary stenting of the long stent. Post-dilation to conform the stent to the angled vessel would be safer than primary stenting irrespective of stent length. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic Activity-Based Progress Curve Analysis in Enzyme Kinetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pleiss, Jürgen

2018-03-01

Macrokinetic Michaelis-Menten models based on thermodynamic activity provide insights into enzyme kinetics because they separate substrate-enzyme from substrate-solvent interactions. Kinetic parameters are estimated from experimental progress curves of enzyme-catalyzed reactions. Three pitfalls are discussed: deviations between thermodynamic and concentration-based models, product effects on the substrate activity coefficient, and product inhibition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

2014-12-01

In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

Tension Behaviour on the Connection of the Cold-Formed Cut-Curved Steel Channel Section

Science.gov (United States)

Sani, Mohd Syahrul Hisyam Mohd; Muftah, Fadhluhartini; Fakri Muda, Mohd; Siang Tan, Cher

2017-08-01

Cold-formed steel (CFS) are utilised as a non-structural and structural element in construction activity especially a residential house and small building roof truss system. CFS with a lot of advantages and some of disadvantages such as buckling that must be prevented for roof truss production are being studied equally. CFS was used as a top chord of the roof truss system which normally a slender section is dramatically influenced to buckling failure and instability of the structure. So, the curved section is produced for a top chord for solving the compression member of the roof truss. Besides, there are lacked of design and production information about the CFS curved channel section. In the study, the CFS is bent by using a cut-curved method because of ease of production, without the use of skilled labour and high cost machine. The tension behaviour of the strengthening method of cut-curved or could be recognised as a connection of the cut-curved section was tested and analysed. There are seven types of connection was selected. From the testing and observation, it is shown the specimen with full weld along the cut section and adds with flange element plate with two self-drilling screws (F7A) was noted to have a higher value of ultimate load. Finally, there are three alternative methods of connection for CFS cut-curved that could be a reference for a contractor and further design.

Rainfall declines over Queensland from 1951-2007 and links to the Subtropical Ridge and the SAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cottrill, D A; Ribbe, J

2010-01-01

Much of southern and eastern Australia including Queensland have experienced rainfall declines over recent decades affecting agricultural production and accelerating water infrastructure development. Rainfall declines from southern Australia have now been directly related to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the subtropical ridge. In southern and coastal Queensland, the rainfall declines have occurred mostly in the austral summer and autumn. Observations from this region reveal the rainfall decline is correlated to an increase in the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at many stations. The largest increases in MSLP are over southeast Queensland and coastal regions, where some of the largest rainfall declines occur. This study indicates the subtropical ridge as one of the main factors in the rainfall decline over this region. SAM is also likely to be important, although its seasonal influence, apart from winter, is harder to determine.

JUMPING THE CURVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Pellissier

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.

Terrestrial pesticide exposure of amphibians: an underestimated cause of global decline?

Science.gov (United States)

Brühl, Carsten A; Schmidt, Thomas; Pieper, Silvia; Alscher, Annika

2013-01-01

Amphibians, a class of animals in global decline, are present in agricultural landscapes characterized by agrochemical inputs. Effects of pesticides on terrestrial life stages of amphibians such as juvenile and adult frogs, toads and newts are little understood and a specific risk assessment for pesticide exposure, mandatory for other vertebrate groups, is currently not conducted. We studied the effects of seven pesticide products on juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) in an agricultural overspray scenario. Mortality ranged from 100% after one hour to 40% after seven days at the recommended label rate of currently registered products. The demonstrated toxicity is alarming and a large-scale negative effect of terrestrial pesticide exposure on amphibian populations seems likely. Terrestrial pesticide exposure might be underestimated as a driver of their decline calling for more attention in conservation efforts and the risk assessment procedures in place do not protect this vanishing animal group.

Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

1998-01-01

Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemet, Gregory F.

2006-01-01

The extent and timing of cost-reducing improvements in low-carbon energy systems are important sources of uncertainty in future levels of greenhouse-gas emissions. Models that assess the costs of climate change mitigation policy, and energy policy in general, rely heavily on learning curves to include technology dynamics. Historically, no energy technology has changed more dramatically than photovoltaics (PV), the cost of which has declined by a factor of nearly 100 since the 1950s. Which changes were most important in accounting for the cost reductions that have occurred over the past three decades? Are these results consistent with the notion that learning from experience drove technical change? In this paper, empirical data are assembled to populate a simple model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV. The results indicate that learning from experience, the theoretical mechanism used to explain learning curves, only weakly explains change in the most important factors-plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. Ways in which the consideration of a broader set of influences, such as technical barriers, industry structure, and characteristics of demand, might be used to inform energy technology policy are discussed

Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere

OpenAIRE

Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan

2016-01-01

In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.

Evidence Based Decline in Coconut Productivity along the Coastline ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... production in Tanzania due to implementation of the National Coconut Development Program (NCDP). However, since phasing out of NCDP in 2004, little is known and even less is documented on the status of coconut production and productivity in the country. This study was conducted along the coastal belt where more ...

The Decline of Traditional Banking Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Cornelia Piciu

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The decline of traditional banking activities raise the issue of efficiency of financial stability, in terms ofquantitative and qualitative aspects – the increasing danger of banking failures as well as of susceptibility due toincreased propensity of banking institutions to assume additional to risks either in the form of riskier loans offer orengaging in other "non-traditional" financial activities which give a promise for greater profitability, but also higherrisks. Non-traditional activities of banking as financial products dealers (financial derivatives, generate an increasingrisks and vulnerabilities in the form of moral hazard issues. That is the reason why and these activities should beregulated as well as are the traditional activities. Challenges posed by the decline of traditional banking activities istwofold: the stability of the banking system must be maintained, while the banking system needs to be restructured toachieve financial stability in the long run. One possible way is an appropriate regulatory framework to encourage atransition period of changing the structure of banking activity(reduction of traditional activities and expanding nontraditional activities to enable banking institutions to perform a deep methodic analysis of non traditional activities,oriented to the financial banking efficiency.

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

2014-06-17

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

ECM using Edwards curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja

2013-01-01

-arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...

What Makes Clusters Decline?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

2015-01-01

Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark. The longit...... but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

The Physics of Type Ia Supernova Light Curves. I. Analytic Results and Time Dependence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinto, Philip A.; Eastman, Ronald G.

2000-01-01

We develop an analytic solution of the radiation transport problem for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and show that it reproduces bolometric light curves produced by more detailed calculations under the assumption of a constant-extinction coefficient. This model is used to derive the thermal conditions in the interior of SNe Ia and to study the sensitivity of light curves to various properties of the underlying supernova explosions. Although the model is limited by simplifying assumptions, it is adequate for demonstrating that the relationship between SNe Ia maximum-light luminosity and rate of decline is most easily explained if SNe Ia span a range in mass. The analytic model is also used to examine the size of various terms in the transport equation under conditions appropriate to maximum light. For instance, the Eulerian and advective time derivatives are each shown to be of the same order of magnitude as other order v/c terms in the transport equation. We conclude that a fully time-dependent solution to the transport problem is needed in order to compute SNe Ia light curves and spectra accurate enough to distinguish subtle differences of various explosion models. (c) 2000 The American Astronomical Society

Altered Reproductive Function and Amphibian Declines

OpenAIRE

Gallipeau, Sherrie

2014-01-01

Agrochemical exposure is one of the factors that contributes to worldwide amphibian declines. Most studies that examine agrochemicals and amphibian declines focus on toxicity. However, declines are more likely caused by the sub-lethal effects of agrochemical exposure. Past emphases on the lethal effects of agrochemical exposure have overshadowed the contribution of decreased recruitment in amphibian declines. Additionally, studies that examine agrochemicals and reproductive function tend to f...

Future technological and economic performance of IGCC and FT production facilities with and without CO2 capture: Combining component based learning curve and bottom-up analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M.M.J.; Meerman, J.C.; Ramirez, C.A.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2013-01-01

This study aims to investigate the technological and economic prospects of integrated gasification facilities for power (IGCC) and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) liquid production with and without CCS over time. For this purpose, a component based experience curve was constructed and applied to identify the

Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

2007-01-01

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

EVEREST: Pixel Level Decorrelation of K2 Light Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Luger, Rodrigo; Agol, Eric; Kruse, Ethan; Barnes, Rory; Becker, Andrew; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Deming, Drake

2016-10-01

We present EPIC Variability Extraction and Removal for Exoplanet Science Targets (EVEREST), an open-source pipeline for removing instrumental noise from K2 light curves. EVEREST employs a variant of pixel level decorrelation to remove systematics introduced by the spacecraft’s pointing error and a Gaussian process to capture astrophysical variability. We apply EVEREST to all K2 targets in campaigns 0-7, yielding light curves with precision comparable to that of the original Kepler mission for stars brighter than {K}p≈ 13, and within a factor of two of the Kepler precision for fainter targets. We perform cross-validation and transit injection and recovery tests to validate the pipeline, and compare our light curves to the other de-trended light curves available for download at the MAST High Level Science Products archive. We find that EVEREST achieves the highest average precision of any of these pipelines for unsaturated K2 stars. The improved precision of these light curves will aid in exoplanet detection and characterization, investigations of stellar variability, asteroseismology, and other photometric studies. The EVEREST pipeline can also easily be applied to future surveys, such as the TESS mission, to correct for instrumental systematics and enable the detection of low signal-to-noise transiting exoplanets. The EVEREST light curves and the source code used to generate them are freely available online.

Determination of the equation parameters of carbon flow curves and estimated carbon flow and CO2 emissions from broiler production.

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, J D; Bockor, L; Borille, R; Coldebella, A; Ribeiro, A M L; Kessler, A M

2015-09-01

The objective of this study was to determine the equation parameters of carbon (i.e., C) flow curves and to estimate C flow and carbon dioxide (i.e., CO2) emissions from the production of 1- to 49-day-old broilers from different genetic strains. In total, 384 1-day-old chicks were used, distributed into 4 groups: high-performance males (Cobb-M) and females (Cobb-F), and intermediate-performance males (C44-M) and females (C44-F), with 6 replicates/treatment according to a completely randomized study design. Carbon intake and retention were calculated based on diet and body C composition, and expired C was stoichiometrically estimated as digestible C intake-C retention-C in the urine. Litter C emission was estimated as initial litter C+C in the excreta-final litter C. Carbon flow curves were determined fitting data by nonlinear regression using the Gompertz function. Expired CO2 was calculated based on expired C. The applied nonlinear model presented goodness-of-fit for all responses (R2>0.99). Carbon dioxide production was highly correlated with growth rate. At 42 d age, CO2 expiration (g/bird) was 3,384.4 for Cobb-M, 2,947.9 for Cobb-F, 2,512.5 for C44-M, and 2185.1 for C44-F. Age also significantly affected CO2 production: to achieve 2.0 kg BW, CO2 expiration (g/bird) was 1,794.3 for Cobb-M, 2,016.5 for Cobb-F, 2617.7 for C44-M, and 3,092.3 for C44-F. The obtained equations present high predictability to estimate individual CO2 emissions in strains of Cobb and C44 broilers of any weight, or age, reared between 1 and 49 d age. © 2015 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

Science.gov (United States)

Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

2006-01-01

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

Predicting loss of employment over three years in multiple sclerosis: clinically meaningful cognitive decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, Sarah A; Drake, Allison; Zivadinov, Robert; Munschauer, Frederick; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Benedict, Ralph H B

2010-10-01

Cognitive dysfunction is common in multiple sclerosis (MS), yet the magnitude of change on objective neuropsychological (NP) tests that is clinically meaningful is unclear. We endeavored to determine NP markers of the transition from employment to work disability in MS, as indicated by degree of decline on individual tests. Participants were 97 employed MS patients followed over 41.3 ± 17.6 months with a NP battery covering six domains of cognitive function. Deterioration at follow-up was designated as documented and paid disability benefits (conservative definition) or a reduction in hours/work responsibilities (liberal definition). Using the conservative definition, 28.9% reported deteriorated employment status and for the liberal definition, 45.4%. The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) and California Verbal Learning Test, Total Learning (CVLT2-TL) measures distinguished employed and disabled patients at follow-up. Controlling for demographic and MS characteristics, the odds ratio of a deterioration based on a change of 2.0 on the CVLT2-TL was 3.7 (95% CI 1.2-11.4 and SDMT by 4.0 was 4.2 (95% CI 1.2-14.8), accounting for 86.7% of the area under the ROC curve. We conclude that decline on NP testing over time is predictive of deterioration in vocational status, establishing a magnitude of decline on NP tests that is clinically meaningful.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

OpenAIRE

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

Using Pollination Deficits to Infer Pollinator Declines: Can Theory Guide Us?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James D. Thomson

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Authors examining pollinator declines frequently discuss pollination deficits, either as contemporary evidence that declines have occurred or as a possible negative consequence of future declines. Because pollination deficits can be measured in short-term studies, it would be useful if such studies could somehow replace painstaking documentation of insect population trends. I examine the legitimacy of this type of substitution with reference to evolutionary theory and natural plant populations. Operationally, pollination deficits are detected through pollen supplementation experiments. Although simple, these experiments are subject to subtleties of interpretation because of biases and nonlinear responses, which I discuss. Although it has been found that, in 62% of the natural populations studied, fruit or seed sets are at least sometimes limited by insufficient pollen, other research suggests that intact natural systems ought to arrive at an evolutionary equilibrium in which reproduction is limited equally by pollination and by maternal resources. Therefore, chronic severe pollination deficits may indicate that the pollinator service of a plant population has declined from some higher level in the past. However, there is no evidence of widespread declines, and, because of stochastic factors in nature, occasional shortfalls of pollination should be expected even at equilibrium. Although the effects of pollination deficits on plant population dynamics have been little studied, moderate declines in seed production may have relatively little effect on population growth rates because resources not expended on fruits and seeds may be reallocated to vegetative persistence or spread. It is therefore premature to conclude that pollinator declines are having strong effects on natural plant populations, but this mostly reflects a lack of data and is no cause for complacency. Theory must be supplemented by case studies; I give one example and

Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Shiwei; Zhang, Junjie; Zheng, Shuhong; Sun, Han

2015-01-01

This study aims to estimate carbon intensity abatement potential in China at the regional level by proposing a particle swarm optimization–genetic algorithm (PSO–GA) multivariate environmental learning curve estimation method. The model uses two independent variables, namely, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, to construct carbon intensity learning curves (CILCs), i.e., CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, of 30 provinces in China. Instead of the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) method, a PSO–GA intelligent optimization algorithm is used to optimize the coefficients of a learning curve. The carbon intensity abatement potentials of the 30 Chinese provinces are estimated via PSO–GA under the business-as-usual scenario. The estimation reveals the following results. (1) For most provinces, the abatement potentials from improving a unit of the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP are higher than the potentials from raising a unit of per capita GDP. (2) The average potential of the 30 provinces in 2020 will be 37.6% based on the emission's level of 2005. The potentials of Jiangsu, Tianjin, Shandong, Beijing, and Heilongjiang are over 60%. Ningxia is the only province without intensity abatement potential. (3) The total carbon intensity in China weighted by the GDP shares of the 30 provinces will decline by 39.4% in 2020 compared with that in 2005. This intensity cannot achieve the 40%–45% carbon intensity reduction target set by the Chinese government. Additional mitigation policies should be developed to uncover the potentials of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the simulation accuracy of the CILCs optimized by PSO–GA is higher than that of the CILCs optimized by the traditional OLS method. - Highlights: • A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method is proposed. • The carbon intensity abatement potentials of the 30 Chinese provinces are estimated by

Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program.

Science.gov (United States)

Afouxenidis, D; Polymeris, G S; Tsirliganis, N C; Kitis, G

2012-05-01

This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the GLOw Curve ANalysis INtercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters.

Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afouxenidis, D.; Polymeris, G. S.; Tsirliganis, N. C.; Kitis, G.

2012-01-01

This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the Glow Curve Analysis Intercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters. (authors)

Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A.

2014-01-01

The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.

2017-01-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment

ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES: TESTING ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dedi Budiman Hakim

2013-04-01

Full Text Available ASEAN experiences a dynamic economic growth due to its liberalised markets. However concerns arise related to environmental issues resulting from the economic activities. It reflects tradeoffs between economic growth driven by trade and foreign direct investment (FDI, and environment. To investigate such a relation the Environmental Kuznets Curve was applied by regressing amount of carbon emission with gross domestic product (GDP, quadratic GDP, trade openness and FDI. The result reveals that amount of carbon emission is linearly and positively correlated with GDP per capita. It is predicted that as ASEAN economies grow, carbon emission increases. Trade openness is also found to contribute to carbon emission. Keywords: Kuznets curve, carbon emission, gross domestic product, trade, foreign direct investment JEL classification number: F15, F18

Reference Curve for the Mean Uterine Artery Pulsatility Index in Singleton Pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Weichert, Alexander; Hagen, Andreas; Tchirikov, Michael; Fuchs, Ilka B; Henrich, Wolfgang; Entezami, Michael

2017-05-01

Doppler sonography of the uterine artery (UA) is done to monitor pregnancies, because the detected flow patterns are useful to draw inferences about possible disorders of trophoblast invasion. Increased resistance in the UA is associated with an increased risk of preeclampsia and/or intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and perinatal mortality. In the absence of standardized figures, the normal ranges of the various available reference curves sometimes differ quite substantially from one another. The causes for this are differences in the flow patterns of the UA depending on the position of the pulsed Doppler gates as well as branching of the UA. Because of the discrepancies between the different reference curves and the practical problems this poses for guideline recommendations, we thought it would be useful to create our own reference curves for Doppler measurements of the UA obtained from a singleton cohort under standardized conditions. This retrospective cohort study was carried out in the Department of Obstetrics of the Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, the Department for Obstetrics and Prenatal Medicine of the University Hospital Halle (Saale) and the Center for Prenatal Diagnostics and Human Genetics Kurfürstendamm 199. Available datasets from the three study locations were identified and reference curves were generated using the LMS method. Measured values were correlated with age of gestation, and a cubic model and Box-Cox power transformation (L), the median (M) and the coefficient of variation (S) were used to smooth the curves. 103 720 Doppler examinations of the UA carried out in singleton pregnancies from the 11th week of gestation (10 + 1 GW) were analyzed. The mean pulsatility index (Mean PI) showed a continuous decline over the course of pregnancy, dropping to a plateau of around 0.84 between the 23rd and 27th GW, after which it decreased again. Age of gestation, placental position, position of pulsed Doppler gates and branching of

Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik P. Van Dalen

2011-08-01

Full Text Available European countries are experiencing population decline and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that the decline may have detrimental welfare effects. In this paper we use a survey among the population in the Netherlands to discover whether population decline is always met with fear. A number of results stand out: population size preferences differ by geographic proximity: at a global level the majority of respondents favors a (global population decline, but closer to home one supports a stationary population. Population decline is clearly not always met with fear: 31 percent would like the population to decline at the national level and they generally perceive decline to be accompanied by immaterial welfare gains (improvement environment as well as material welfare losses (tax increases, economic stagnation. In addition to these driving forces it appears that the attitude towards immigrants is a very strong determinant at all geographical levels: immigrants seem to be a stronger fear factor than population decline.

Learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivera-Tinoco, Rodrigo; Schoots, Koen; Zwaan, Bob van der

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We present learning curves for fuel cells based on empirical data. ► We disentangle different cost reduction mechanisms for SOFCs. ► We distinguish between learning-by-doing, R and D, economies-of-scale and automation. - Abstract: In this article we present learning curves for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). With data from fuel cell manufacturers we derive a detailed breakdown of their production costs. We develop a bottom-up model that allows for determining overall SOFC manufacturing costs with their respective cost components, among which material, energy, labor and capital charges. The results obtained from our model prove to deviate by at most 13% from total cost figures quoted in the literature. For the R and D stage of development and diffusion, we find local learning rates between 13% and 17% and we demonstrate that the corresponding cost reductions result essentially from learning-by-searching effects. When considering periods in time that focus on the pilot and early commercial production stages, we find regional learning rates of 27% and 1%, respectively, which we assume derive mainly from genuine learning phenomena. These figures turnout significantly higher, approximately 44% and 12% respectively, if also effects of economies-of-scale and automation are included. When combining all production stages we obtain lr = 35%, which represents a mix of cost reduction phenomena. This high learning rate value and the potential to scale up production suggest that continued efforts in the development of SOFC manufacturing processes, as well as deployment and use of SOFCs, may lead to substantial further cost reductions.

Rising trade, declining stocks: The global gugul (Commiphora wightii) trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, A B; Brinckmann, J A; Kulloli, R N; Schippmann, U

2018-05-07

Commiphora wightii is exploited in India and Pakistan for an oleo-resin (gum guggul) traditionally used in Ayurvedic, Siddha and Unani medical systems. Processed C. wightii oleo-resin products are exported from India to 42 countries, including re-export to Pakistan, for anti-inflammatory use and as an anti-inflammatory and an anti-obesity treatment considered to lower cholesterol and lipid levels. The C. wightii export trade has particular relevance to the European Union because Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom are importing countries. Demand and prices for C. wightii oleo-resin are increasing and wild stocks of C. wightii are in decline. The overexploitation of C. wightii after tapping for its commercially valuable oleo-resin is not a new problem, however, but one that has existed for over 50 years. Lopping and chopping trees to extract C. wightii oleo-resin has had a devastating impact on C. wightii populations since the 1960's. The aim of this study was to review the sustainability of the global trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. This included reviewing studies on resin tapping methods and the impacts of wild harvest on C. wightii populations in India and Pakistan. Firstly, we reviewed studies on impacts of C. wightii oleo-resin harvest and on the policy responses taken in relation to harvest and trade in C. wightii oleo-resin. Secondly, we reviewed studies on C. wightii cultivation. Thirdly, global trade data for C. wightii were analyzed. Destructive harvest to obtain the gum is the major threat facing this species. C. wightii populations are also fragmented by habitat loss through clearing for farming. Cutting and lopping in order to extract the medicinal gum are a major threat to C. wightii populations, as is poor recruitment due to grazing by livestock. As a result of over-exploitation, C. wightii oleo-resin production has declined in India. In Gujarat, a key production area, the decline over a 50-year period has

Flow characteristics of curved ducts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolf P.

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Curved channels are very often present in real hydraulic systems, e.g. curved diffusers of hydraulic turbines, S-shaped bulb turbines, fittings, etc. Curvature brings change of velocity profile, generation of vortices and production of hydraulic losses. Flow simulation using CFD techniques were performed to understand these phenomena. Cases ranging from single elbow to coupled elbows in shapes of U, S and spatial right angle position with circular cross-section were modeled for Re = 60000. Spatial development of the flow was studied and consequently it was deduced that minor losses are connected with the transformation of pressure energy into kinetic energy and vice versa. This transformation is a dissipative process and is reflected in the amount of the energy irreversibly lost. Least loss coefficient is connected with flow in U-shape elbows, biggest one with flow in Sshape elbows. Finally, the extent of the flow domain influenced by presence of curvature was examined. This isimportant for proper placement of mano- and flowmeters during experimental tests. Simulations were verified with experimental results presented in literature.

On the analysis of Canadian Holstein dairy cow lactation curves using standard growth functions.

Science.gov (United States)

López, S; France, J; Odongo, N E; McBride, R A; Kebreab, E; AlZahal, O; McBride, B W; Dijkstra, J

2015-04-01

Six classical growth functions (monomolecular, Schumacher, Gompertz, logistic, Richards, and Morgan) were fitted to individual and average (by parity) cumulative milk production curves of Canadian Holstein dairy cows. The data analyzed consisted of approximately 91,000 daily milk yield records corresponding to 122 first, 99 second, and 92 third parity individual lactation curves. The functions were fitted using nonlinear regression procedures, and their performance was assessed using goodness-of-fit statistics (coefficient of determination, residual mean squares, Akaike information criterion, and the correlation and concordance coefficients between observed and adjusted milk yields at several days in milk). Overall, all the growth functions evaluated showed an acceptable fit to the cumulative milk production curves, with the Richards equation ranking first (smallest Akaike information criterion) followed by the Morgan equation. Differences among the functions in their goodness-of-fit were enlarged when fitted to average curves by parity, where the sigmoidal functions with a variable point of inflection (Richards and Morgan) outperformed the other 4 equations. All the functions provided satisfactory predictions of milk yield (calculated from the first derivative of the functions) at different lactation stages, from early to late lactation. The Richards and Morgan equations provided the most accurate estimates of peak yield and total milk production per 305-d lactation, whereas the least accurate estimates were obtained with the logistic equation. In conclusion, classical growth functions (especially sigmoidal functions with a variable point of inflection) proved to be feasible alternatives to fit cumulative milk production curves of dairy cows, resulting in suitable statistical performance and accurate estimates of lactation traits. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Algorithms for Stellar Light Curves With TESS

Science.gov (United States)

Buzasi, Derek

2018-01-01

The Kepler and K2 missions have produced tens of thousands of stellar light curves, which have been used to measure rotation periods, characterize photometric activity levels, and explore phenomena such as differential rotation. The quasi-periodic nature of rotational light curves, combined with the potential presence of additional periodicities not due to rotation, complicates the analysis of these time series and makes characterization of uncertainties difficult. A variety of algorithms have been used for the extraction of rotational signals, including autocorrelation functions, discrete Fourier transforms, Lomb-Scargle periodograms, wavelet transforms, and the Hilbert-Huang transform. In addition, in the case of K2 a number of different pipelines have been used to produce initial detrended light curves from the raw image frames.In the near future, TESS photometry, particularly that deriving from the full-frame images, will dramatically further expand the number of such light curves, but details of the pipeline to be used to produce photometry from the FFIs remain under development. K2 data offers us an opportunity to explore the utility of different reduction and analysis tool combinations applied to these astrophysically important tasks. In this work, we apply a wide range of algorithms to light curves produced by a number of popular K2 pipeline products to better understand the advantages and limitations of each approach and provide guidance for the most reliable and most efficient analysis of TESS stellar data.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

Science.gov (United States)

Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

2010-12-23

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

Quantum field theory in curved space-time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, P C.W. [King' s Coll., London (UK)

1976-09-30

It is stated that recent theoretical developments indicate that the presence of gravity (curved space-time) can give rise to important new quantum effects, such as cosmological particle production and black-hole evaporation. These processes suggest intriguing new relations between quantum theory, thermodynamics and space-time structure and encourage the hope that a better understanding of a full quantum theory of gravity may emerge from this approach.

Drivers and moderators of business decline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Pretorius

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Reports of business failure elicit various reactions, while research in this domain often appears to be limited by a lack of access to information about failure and by the negativity that surrounds it. Those who have experienced failure do not readily talk about it, or they disappear from the radar screen of researchers. Yet failure is preceded by decline which, when focused on strategically, can reduce eventual failures if early action is taken. The main purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual framework or typology of the drivers and moderators of business decline. Design/methodology/approach: After applying the "grounded theory" approach to the academic literature on decline and failure, a conceptual framework for the variables that drive and moderate business decline is proposed. Findings: The study proposes that decline has three core drivers, three peripheral drivers and four moderators. The core drivers identified are: resource munificence; leadership as origin; and causality (strategic versus operational origin of decline. The three peripheral drivers are: unique preconditions; continuous decisions impact; and extremes dichotomy. The study describes four moderators of the drivers: life cycle stage; stakeholder perspective; quantitative versus qualitative nature of signs and causes; and finally the age and size effects. Research limitations/implications: The proposed conceptual framework is based on literature only, although it has found support during discussions with practitioners. It is proposed to readers of this journal for scrutiny and validation. Practical implications: Strategists need to understand what drives decline in order to act timeously; practitioners who have an insight into the moderators with their impacts could make better decisions in response to decline in organisations and possibly avoid business failure. Originality/Value: Understanding business decline is still a huge theoretical challenge, which

Approximation by planar elastic curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge

2016-01-01

We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....

Forest decline through radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reichelt, G.; Kollert, R.

1985-01-01

Is more serious damage of forest observed in the vicinity of nuclear reactors. How are those decline patterns to be explained. Does the combined effect of radioactivity and different air pollutants (such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, oxidants etc.) have an influence in the decline of the forest. In what way do synergisms, i.e. mutually enhanced effects, participate. How does natural and artificial radioactivity affect the chemistry of air in the polluted atmosphere. What does this mean for the extension of nuclear energy, especially for the reprocessing plant planned. Damage in the forests near nuclear and industrial plants was mapped and the resulting hypotheses on possible emittors were statistically verified. Quantitative calculations as to the connection between nuclear energy and forest decline were carried through: they demand action. (orig./HP) [de

THE CARNEGIE SUPERNOVA PROJECT: LIGHT-CURVE FITTING WITH SNooPy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, Christopher R.; Persson, S. E.; Madore, Barry F.; Freedman, Wendy L.; Stritzinger, Maximilian; Phillips, M. M.; Boldt, Luis; Campillay, Abdo; Folatelli, Gaston; Gonzalez, Sergio; Krzeminski, Wojtek; Morrell, Nidia; Salgado, Francisco; Kattner, ShiAnne; Contreras, Carlos; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.

2011-01-01

In providing an independent measure of the expansion history of the universe, the Carnegie Supernova Project (CSP) has observed 71 high-z Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the near-infrared bands Y and J. These can be used to construct rest-frame i-band light curves which, when compared to a low-z sample, yield distance moduli that are less sensitive to extinction and/or decline-rate corrections than in the optical. However, working with NIR observed and i-band rest-frame photometry presents unique challenges and has necessitated the development of a new set of observational tools in order to reduce and analyze both the low-z and high-z CSP sample. We present in this paper the methods used to generate uBVgriYJH light-curve templates based on a sample of 24 high-quality low-z CSP SNe. We also present two methods for determining the distances to the hosts of SN Ia events. A larger sample of 30 low-z SNe Ia in the Hubble flow is used to calibrate these methods. We then apply the method and derive distances to seven galaxies that are so nearby that their motions are not dominated by the Hubble flow.

Statistical and biophysical aspects of survival curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kellerer, A.M.

1980-01-01

Statistic fluctuation in a series of consequently taken survival curves of asynchronous cells of a hamster of the V79 line during X-ray irradiation, are considered. In each of the experiments fluctuations are close to those expected on the basis of the Poisson distribution. The fluctuation of cell sensitivity in different experiments of one series can reach 10%. The normalization of each experiment in mean values permits to obtain the ''idealized'' survival curve. The survival logarithm in this curve is proportional to the absorbed dose and its square only at low radiation doses. Such proportionality in V lab 79 cells in the late S-phase is observed at all doses. Using the microdosimetric approach, the distance where the interaction of radiolysis products or subinjury takes place to make the dependence of injury on the dose non-linear, is determined. In the case of interaction distances of 10-100 nm, the linear component is shown to become comparable in value with the linear injury component at doses of the order of several hundred rad only in the case, when the interaction distance is close to micrometre [ru

A Bragg curve counter with an internal production target for the measurement of the double-differential cross-section of fragment production induced by neutrons at energies of tens of MeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanami, T.; Hagiwara, M.; Oishi, T.; Hosokawa, M.; Kamada, S.; Tanaka, Su.; Iwamoto, Y.; Nakashima, H.; Baba, M.

2009-01-01

A Bragg curve counter equipped with an internal production target was developed for the measurements of double-differential cross-sections of fragment production induced by neutrons at energies of tens of MeV. The internal target permitted a large detection solid angle and thus the registration of processes at low production rates. In this specific geometry, the detection solid angle depends on the emission angle and the range of the particle. Therefore the energy, atomic number, and angle of trajectory of the particle have to be taken into account for the determination of the solid angle. For the selection of events with tracks confined within a defined cylindrical volume around the detector axis, a segmented anode was applied. The double-differential cross-sections for neutron-induced production of lithium, beryllium, and boron fragments from a carbon target were measured at 0 deg. for 65 MeV neutrons. The results are in good agreement with theoretical calculation using PHITS code with GEM and ISOBAR model.

Mobility decline in old age

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rantakokko, Merja; Mänty, Minna Regina; Rantanen, Taina

2013-01-01

Mobility is important for community independence. With increasing age, underlying pathologies, genetic vulnerabilities, physiological and sensory impairments, and environmental barriers increase the risk for mobility decline. Understanding how mobility declines is paramount to finding ways...... to promote mobility in old age....

Bragg Curve Spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruhn, C.R.

1981-05-01

An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously

Chocolate Consumption is Associated with a Lower Risk of Cognitive Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreira, Afonso; Diógenes, Maria José; de Mendonça, Alexandre; Lunet, Nuno; Barros, Henrique

2016-05-06

Cocoa-related products like chocolate have taken an important place in our food habits and culture. In this work, we aim to examine the relationship between chocolate consumption and cognitive decline in an elderly cognitively healthy population. In the present longitudinal prospective study, a cohort of 531 participants aged 65 and over with normal Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; median 28) was selected. The median follow-up was 48 months. Dietary habits were evaluated at baseline. The MMSE was used to assess global cognitive function at baseline and at follow-up. Cognitive decline was defined by a decrease ≥ 2 points in the MMSE score between evaluations. Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) estimates were adjusted for age, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, hypertension, and diabetes. Chocolate intake was associated with a lower risk of cognitive decline (RR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.38-0.92). This protective effect was observed only among subjects with an average daily consumption of caffeine lower than 75 mg (69% of the participants; RR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.31-0.82). To our knowledge, this is the first prospective cohort study to show an inverse association between regular long-term chocolate consumption and cognitive decline in humans.

A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

2014-01-01

We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

Contractibility of curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janusz Charatonik

1991-11-01

Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.

Roc curves for continuous data

CERN Document Server

Krzanowski, Wojtek J

2009-01-01

Since ROC curves have become ubiquitous in many application areas, the various advances have been scattered across disparate articles and texts. ROC Curves for Continuous Data is the first book solely devoted to the subject, bringing together all the relevant material to provide a clear understanding of how to analyze ROC curves.The fundamental theory of ROC curvesThe book first discusses the relationship between the ROC curve and numerous performance measures and then extends the theory into practice by describing how ROC curves are estimated. Further building on the theory, the authors prese

A human-driven decline in global burned area

Science.gov (United States)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Parameter Deduction and Accuracy Analysis of Track Beam Curves in Straddle-type Monorail Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaobo Zhao

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The accuracy of the bottom curve of a PC track beam is strongly related to the production quality of the entire beam. Many factors may affect the parameters of the bottom curve, such as the superelevation of the curve and the deformation of a PC track beam. At present, no effective method has been developed to determine the bottom curve of a PC track beam; therefore, a new technique is presented in this paper to deduce the parameters of such a curve and to control the accuracy of the computation results. First, the domain of the bottom curve of a PC track beam is assumed to be a spindle plane. Then, the corresponding supposed top curve domain is determined based on a geometrical relationship that is the opposite of that identified by the conventional method. Second, several optimal points are selected from the supposed top curve domain according to the dichotomy algorithm; the supposed top curve is thus generated by connecting these points. Finally, one rigorous criterion is established in the fractal dimension to assess the accuracy of the assumed top curve deduced in the previous step. If this supposed curve coincides completely with the known top curve, then the assumed bottom curve corresponding to the assumed top curve is considered to be the real bottom curve. This technique of determining the bottom curve of a PC track beam is thus proven to be efficient and accurate.

Growth curve registration for evaluating salinity tolerance in barley

KAUST Repository

Meng, Rui

2017-03-23

Background: Smarthouses capable of non-destructive, high-throughput plant phenotyping collect large amounts of data that can be used to understand plant growth and productivity in extreme environments. The challenge is to apply the statistical tool that best analyzes the data to study plant traits, such as salinity tolerance, or plant-growth-related traits. Results: We derive family-wise salinity sensitivity (FSS) growth curves and use registration techniques to summarize growth patterns of HEB-25 barley families and the commercial variety, Navigator. We account for the spatial variation in smarthouse microclimates and in temporal variation across phenotyping runs using a functional ANOVA model to derive corrected FSS curves. From FSS, we derive corrected values for family-wise salinity tolerance, which are strongly negatively correlated with Na but not significantly with K, indicating that Na content is an important factor affecting salinity tolerance in these families, at least for plants of this age and grown in these conditions. Conclusions: Our family-wise methodology is suitable for analyzing the growth curves of a large number of plants from multiple families. The corrected curves accurately account for the spatial and temporal variations among plants that are inherent to high-throughput experiments.

Growth curve registration for evaluating salinity tolerance in barley

KAUST Repository

Meng, Rui; Saade, Stephanie; Kurtek, Sebastian; Berger, Bettina; Brien, Chris; Pillen, Klaus; Tester, Mark A.; Sun, Ying

2017-01-01

Background: Smarthouses capable of non-destructive, high-throughput plant phenotyping collect large amounts of data that can be used to understand plant growth and productivity in extreme environments. The challenge is to apply the statistical tool that best analyzes the data to study plant traits, such as salinity tolerance, or plant-growth-related traits. Results: We derive family-wise salinity sensitivity (FSS) growth curves and use registration techniques to summarize growth patterns of HEB-25 barley families and the commercial variety, Navigator. We account for the spatial variation in smarthouse microclimates and in temporal variation across phenotyping runs using a functional ANOVA model to derive corrected FSS curves. From FSS, we derive corrected values for family-wise salinity tolerance, which are strongly negatively correlated with Na but not significantly with K, indicating that Na content is an important factor affecting salinity tolerance in these families, at least for plants of this age and grown in these conditions. Conclusions: Our family-wise methodology is suitable for analyzing the growth curves of a large number of plants from multiple families. The corrected curves accurately account for the spatial and temporal variations among plants that are inherent to high-throughput experiments.

Soil Degradation-Induced Decline in Productivity of Sub-Saharan African Soils: The Prospects of Looking Downwards the Lowlands with the Sawah Ecotechnology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunday E. Obalum

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper provides an insight into the problem of land degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa, with emphasis on soil erosion and its effect on soil quality and productivity, and proposes a lowland-based rice-production technology for coping with the situation. Crop yields are, in addition to the degree of past and current erosion, determined by a number of interacting variables. This, coupled with the generally weak database on erosion-induced losses in crop yield in spite of the region’s high vulnerability to erosion, makes it difficult to attain a reliable inference on the cause-effect relationship between soil loss and productivity. Available data suggest, however, that the region is at risk of not meeting up with the challenges of agriculture in this 21st century. Based on the few studies reviewed, methodology appears to have an overwhelming influence on the erosion-productivity response, whereas issues bordering on physical environment and soil affect the shape of the response curve. We argue that the sawah ecotechnology has the potential of countering the negative agronomic and environmental impacts of land degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is a farmer-oriented, low-cost system of managing soil, water, and nutrient resources for enhancing lowland rice productivity and realizing Green Revolution in the region.

Atlas of stress-strain curves

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

UBVRIz LIGHT CURVES OF 51 TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galbany, Lluis; Hamuy, Mario; Jaeger, Thomas de; Moraga, Tania; González-Gaitán, Santiago; Gutiérrez, Claudia P.; Phillips, Mark M.; Morrell, Nidia I.; Thomas-Osip, Joanna; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.; Maza, José; González, Luis; Antezana, Roberto; Wishnjewski, Marina; Krisciunas, Kevin; Krzeminski, Wojtek; McCarthy, Patrick; Anderson, Joseph P.; Stritzinger, Maximilian; Folatelli, Gastón

2016-01-01

We present a compilation of UBVRIz light curves of 51 type II supernovae discovered during the course of four different surveys during 1986–2003: the Cerro Tololo Supernova Survey, the Calán/Tololo Supernova Program (C and T), the Supernova Optical and Infrared Survey (SOIRS), and the Carnegie Type II Supernova Survey (CATS). The photometry is based on template-subtracted images to eliminate any potential host galaxy light contamination, and calibrated from foreground stars. This work presents these photometric data, studies the color evolution using different bands, and explores the relation between the magnitude at maximum brightness and the brightness decline parameter (s) from maximum light through the end of the recombination phase. This parameter is found to be shallower for redder bands and appears to have the best correlation in the B band. In addition, it also correlates with the plateau duration, being shorter (longer) for larger (smaller) s values

UBVRIz LIGHT CURVES OF 51 TYPE II SUPERNOVAE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galbany, Lluis; Hamuy, Mario; Jaeger, Thomas de; Moraga, Tania; González-Gaitán, Santiago; Gutiérrez, Claudia P. [Millennium Institute of Astrophysics, Universidad de Chile (Chile); Phillips, Mark M.; Morrell, Nidia I.; Thomas-Osip, Joanna [Carnegie Observatories, Las Campanas Observatory, Casilla 60, La Serena (Chile); Suntzeff, Nicholas B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Maza, José; González, Luis; Antezana, Roberto; Wishnjewski, Marina [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio 1515, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Krisciunas, Kevin [George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Texas A. and M. University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4242 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Krzeminski, Wojtek [N. Copernicus Astronomical Center, ul. Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warszawa (Poland); McCarthy, Patrick [The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Anderson, Joseph P. [European Southern Observatory, Alonso de Cordova 3107, Vitacura, Casilla 19001, Santiago (Chile); Stritzinger, Maximilian [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University (Denmark); Folatelli, Gastón, E-mail: lgalbany@das.uchile.cl [Instituto de Astrofísica de La Plata (IALP, CONICET) (Argentina); and others

2016-02-15

We present a compilation of UBVRIz light curves of 51 type II supernovae discovered during the course of four different surveys during 1986–2003: the Cerro Tololo Supernova Survey, the Calán/Tololo Supernova Program (C and T), the Supernova Optical and Infrared Survey (SOIRS), and the Carnegie Type II Supernova Survey (CATS). The photometry is based on template-subtracted images to eliminate any potential host galaxy light contamination, and calibrated from foreground stars. This work presents these photometric data, studies the color evolution using different bands, and explores the relation between the magnitude at maximum brightness and the brightness decline parameter (s) from maximum light through the end of the recombination phase. This parameter is found to be shallower for redder bands and appears to have the best correlation in the B band. In addition, it also correlates with the plateau duration, being shorter (longer) for larger (smaller) s values.

Computer calculations of activation energy for pyrolysis from thermogravimetric curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussain, R.

1994-01-01

A BASIC programme to determine energy of activation for the degradation of polymers has been described. The calculations are based on the results of thermogravimetric curves. This method is applicable for those polymers which produce volatile products upon thermal degradation. (author)

Cosmic ray production curves below reworking zones

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanford, G.E.

1980-01-01

A method is presented for calculating cosmic ray production profiles below reworking zones. The method uses an input reworking depth determined from data such as signatures in the depth profile of ferromagnetic resonance intensity and input cosmic ray production profiles for an undisturbed surface. Reworking histories are simulated using Monte Carlo techniques, and depth profiles are used to determine cosmic ray exposure age limits with a specified probability. It is shown that the track density profiles predict cosmic ray exposure ages in lunar cores that are consistent with values determined by other methods. Results applied to neutron fluence and spallation rare gases eliminate the use of reworking depth as an adjustable parameter and give cosmic ray exposure ages that are compatible with each other

Topographic characterization of nanostructures on curved polymer surfaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feidenhans'l, Nikolaj Agentoft; Petersen, Jan C.; Taboryski, Rafael J.

2014-01-01

The availability of portable instrumentation for characterizing surface topography on the micro- and nanometer scale is very limited. Particular the handling of curved surfaces, both concave and convex, is complicated or not possible on current instrumentation. However, the currently growing use...... method with a portable instrument that can be used in a production environment, and topographically characterize nanometer-scale surface structures on both flat and curved surfaces. To facilitate the commercialization of injection moulded polymer parts featuring nanostructures, it is pivotal...... of injection moulding of polymer parts featuring nanostructured surfaces, requires an instrument that can characterize these structures to ensure replication-confidence between master structure and replicated polymer parts. This project concerns the development of a metrological traceable quality control...

Benefit and cost curves for typical pollination mutualisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, William F; Vázquez, Diego P; Chacoff, Natacha P

2010-05-01

Mutualisms provide benefits to interacting species, but they also involve costs. If costs come to exceed benefits as population density or the frequency of encounters between species increases, the interaction will no longer be mutualistic. Thus curves that represent benefits and costs as functions of interaction frequency are important tools for predicting when a mutualism will tip over into antagonism. Currently, most of what we know about benefit and cost curves in pollination mutualisms comes from highly specialized pollinating seed-consumer mutualisms, such as the yucca moth-yucca interaction. There, benefits to female reproduction saturate as the number of visits to a flower increases (because the amount of pollen needed to fertilize all the flower's ovules is finite), but costs continue to increase (because pollinator offspring consume developing seeds), leading to a peak in seed production at an intermediate number of visits. But for most plant-pollinator mutualisms, costs to the plant are more subtle than consumption of seeds, and how such costs scale with interaction frequency remains largely unknown. Here, we present reasonable benefit and cost curves that are appropriate for typical pollinator-plant interactions, and we show how they can result in a wide diversity of relationships between net benefit (benefit minus cost) and interaction frequency. We then use maximum-likelihood methods to fit net-benefit curves to measures of female reproductive success for three typical pollination mutualisms from two continents, and for each system we chose the most parsimonious model using information-criterion statistics. We discuss the implications of the shape of the net-benefit curve for the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator mutualisms, as well as the challenges that lie ahead for disentangling the underlying benefit and cost curves for typical pollination mutualisms.

Tornado-Shaped Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

2017-01-01

In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

A versatile curve-fit model for linear to deeply concave rank abundance curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

2005-01-01

A new, flexible curve-fit model for linear to concave rank abundance curves was conceptualized and validated using observational data. The model links the geometric-series model and log-series model and can also fit deeply concave rank abundance curves. The model is based ¿ in an unconventional way

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Curva de Phillips e macrodinâmica do capital ótimo Phillips curve and the macrodynamics of optimal capital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Motta Correia

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta novos argumentos para alguns dos fatos estilizados, recentemente, sobre a dinâmica da inflação, apontados por Mishkin (2007, quais sejam: a a persistência dos choques de inflação estão declinando; b a curva de Phillips esta se tornando mais horizontal e; c a inflação tem se mostrado menos reativa à choques nos preços. É abordado o problema da determinação da oferta agregada em que alegamos que a versão novokeynesiana da curva de Phillips, apesar dos avanços, ainda não incorpora os determinantes da ampliação do produto potencial e, que esta inclusão é uma das explicações para os fatos estilizados (fato b, revelados recentemente por Mishkin.This paper presents new arguments for some recent stylized facts about the dynamics of inflation shown by Mishkin (2007, which are: a the persistence of inflation shocks are declining; b the Phillips' curve of this becoming more horizontal and; c inflation has been less reactive to shocks on prices. It addressed the problem of determining the aggregate supply where the new version of the Keynesian Phillips' curve, that despite progress, not yet incorporating the determinants of the expansion potential of the product and that this inclusion is one of the explanations for stylized facts (fact b revealed recently by Mishkin.

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

In-Vehicle Dynamic Curve-Speed Warnings at High-Risk Rural Curves

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-01

Lane-departure crashes at horizontal curves represent a significant portion of fatal crashes on rural Minnesota roads. Because of this, solutions are needed to aid drivers in identifying upcoming curves and inform them of a safe speed at which they s...

Modular forms and special cycles on Shimura curves (AM-161)

CERN Document Server

Kudla, Stephen S; Yang, Tonghai

2006-01-01

Modular Forms and Special Cycles on Shimura Curves is a thorough study of the generating functions constructed from special cycles, both divisors and zero-cycles, on the arithmetic surface ""M"" attached to a Shimura curve ""M"" over the field of rational numbers. These generating functions are shown to be the q-expansions of modular forms and Siegel modular forms of genus two respectively, valued in the Gillet-Soulé arithmetic Chow groups of ""M"". The two types of generating functions are related via an arithmetic inner product formula. In addition, an analogue of the classical Siegel-Weil

Why research productivity of medical faculty declines after attaining professor rank? A multi-center study from Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Guraya, Salman Yousuf; Khoshhal, Khalid Ibrahim; Yusoff, Muhamad Saiful Bahri; Khan, Maroof Aziz

2018-05-07

Research has shown a fall of research productivity of faculty after their promotion to professor rank. This study explores the factors that lead to this decline in research productivity of professors in medical discipline. A 20-item questionnaire was distributed online to medical professors of a Saudi, Malaysian and a Pakistani medical school. The participants were instructed to select their responses on a 5-point Likert's scale and the collected data was analyzed for quantitative and qualitative results. Of 161, 110 responded; response rate of 68.3%. About 35% professors spent 1-4 hours and 2% spent 19-25 hours per week for research. As many as 7% did not publish a single article and 29% had published 10 or more articles after attaining professor rank. During the last two years, 44% professors had published 5 or more research articles. Majority pointed out a lack of research support and funds, administrative burden and difficulty in data collection as the main obstacles to their research. This research has identified time constraints and insufficient support for research as key barriers to medical professors' research productivity. Financial and technical support and lesser administrative work load are some suggested remedies to foster the professors' research output.

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

2008-11-11

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

Declining average daily census. Part 1: Implications and options.

Science.gov (United States)

Weil, T P

1985-12-01

A national trend toward declining average daily (inpatient) census (ADC) started in late 1982 even before the Medicare prospective payment system began. The decrease in total days will continue despite an increasing number of aged persons in the U.S. population. This decline could have been predicted from trends during 1978 to 1983, such as increasing available beds but decreasing occupancy, 100 percent increases in hospital expenses, and declining lengths of stay. Assuming that health care costs will remain as a relatively fixed part of the gross national product and no major medical advances will occur in the next five years, certain implications and options exist for facilities experiencing a declining ADC. This article discusses several considerations: Attempts to improve market share; Reduction of full-time equivalent employees; Impact of greater acuity of illness among remaining inpatients; Implications of increasing the number of physicians on medical staffs; Option of a closed medical staff by clinical specialty; Unbundling with not-for-profit and profit-making corporations; Review of mergers, consolidations, and multihospital systems to decide when this option is most appropriate; Sale of a not-for-profit hospital to an investor-owned chain, with implications facing Catholic hospitals choosing this option; Impact and difficulty of developing meaningful alternative health care systems with the hospital's medical staff; Special problems of teaching hospitals; The social issue of the hospital shifting from the community's health center to a cost center; Increased turnover of hospital CEOs; With these in mind, institutions can then focus on solutions that can sometimes be used in tandem to resolve this problem's impact. The second part of this article will discuss some of them.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Megan V; Alisauskas, Ray T; Douglas, David C; Kellett, Dana K

2017-07-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading

An Improved Rate-Transient Analysis Model of Multi-Fractured Horizontal Wells with Non-Uniform Hydraulic Fracture Properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youwei He

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Although technical advances in hydraulically fracturing and drilling enable commercial production from tight reservoirs, oil/gas recovery remains at a low level. Due to the technical and economic limitations of well-testing operations in tight reservoirs, rate-transient analysis (RTA has become a more attractive option. However, current RTA models hardly consider the effect of the non-uniform production on rate decline behaviors. In fact, PLT results demonstrate that production profile is non-uniform. To fill this gap, this paper presents an improved RTA model of multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHWs to investigate the effects of non-uniform properties of hydraulic fractures (production of fractures, fracture half-length, number of fractures, fracture conductivity, and vertical permeability on rate transient behaviors through the diagnostic type curves. Results indicate obvious differences on the rate decline curves among the type curves of uniform properties of fractures (UPF and non-uniform properties of fractures (NPF. The use of dimensionless production integral derivative curve magnifies the differences so that we can diagnose the phenomenon of non-uniform production. Therefore, it’s significant to incorporate the effects of NPF into the RDA models of MFHWs, and the model proposed in this paper enables us to better evaluate well performance based on long-term production data.

Positional glow curve simulation for thermoluminescent detector (TLD) system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Branch, C.J.; Kearfott, K.J.

1999-01-01

Multi- and thin element dosimeters, variable heating rate schemes, and glow-curve analysis have been employed to improve environmental and personnel dosimetry using thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs). Detailed analysis of the effects of errors and optimization of techniques would be highly desirable. However, an understanding of the relationship between TL light production, light attenuation, and precise heating schemes is made difficult because of experimental challenges involved in measuring positional TL light production and temperature variations as a function of time. This work reports the development of a general-purpose computer code, thermoluminescent detector simulator, TLD-SIM, to simulate the heating of any TLD type using a variety of conventional and experimental heating methods including pulsed focused or unfocused lasers with Gaussian or uniform cross sections, planchet, hot gas, hot finger, optical, infrared, or electrical heating. TLD-SIM has been used to study the impact on the TL light production of varying the input parameters which include: detector composition, heat capacity, heat conductivity, physical size, and density; trapped electron density, the frequency factor of oscillation of electrons in the traps, and trap-conduction band potential energy difference; heating scheme source terms and heat transfer boundary conditions; and TL light scatter and attenuation coefficients. Temperature profiles and glow curves as a function of position time, as well as the corresponding temporally and/or spatially integrated glow values, may be plotted while varying any of the input parameters. Examples illustrating TLD system functions, including glow curve variability, will be presented. The flexible capabilities of TLD-SIM promises to enable improved TLD system design

Reference Centile Curves for Body Fat Percentage, Fat-free Mass, Muscle Mass and Bone Mass Measured by Bioelectrical Impedance in Asian Indian Children and Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiplonkar, Shashi; Kajale, Neha; Ekbote, Veena; Mandlik, Rubina; Parthasarathy, Lavanya; Borade, Ashwin; Patel, Pinal; Patel, Prerna; Khadilkar, Vaman; Khadilkar, Anuradha

2017-12-15

To create gender-specific percentile curves for percent body fat (%BF) by Bio electrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) for screening adiposity and risk of hypertension in Indian children and generate reference curves for percent fat-free mass (%FFM), muscle mass (%LM) and bone mineral content (BMC) by using bioelectrical impedance. Secondary analysis of data from previous multicenter cross-sectional studies. Private schools from five regions of India. A random sample of 3850 healthy school children (2067 boys) (5-17 yr) from private schools in five major Indian cities. Anthropometry, blood pressure (BP) and body composition were measured by bioelectrical impedance. Reference curves were generated by the LMS method. %BF, %FFM, %LM, BMC and BP. Median %BF increased by 6% from 5 to 13 years of age and declined (around 2%) up to 17 years in boys. In girls, %BF increased by 8% from 5 to 14 years and thereafter declined by 3%. Based upon the risk of hypertension, the new cut-offs of 75th and 85th percentile of %BF were proposed for detecting over fatness and excess fatness in children. Median %FFM was 90% at 5 yrs and decreased till 12 years, and then showed a slight increase to 84% at 17 yrs in boys. In girls, it was 86% at 5 yrs and decreased till 15 yrs, and plateaued at 71.8% at 17 yrs. Reference curves for percent body fat for Indian children would be useful to screen children for health risk in clinical set up.

Growing Degree Vegetation Production Index (GDVPI): A Novel and Data-Driven Approach to Delimit Season Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, W. D.; Spruce, J.; Ross, K. W.; Gasser, J.; Grulke, N.

2014-12-01

Growing Degree Vegetation Production Index (GDVPI) is a parametric approach to delimiting vegetation seasonal growth and decline cycles using incremental growing degree days (GDD), and NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) 8-day composite cumulative integral data. We obtain a specific location's daily minimum and maximum temperatures from the nearest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations posted on the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) Climate Data Online (CDO) archive and compute GDD. The date range for this study is January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2012. We employ a novel process, a repeating logistic product (RLP), to compensate for short-term weather variability and data drops from the recording stations and fit a curve to the median daily GDD values, adjusting for asymmetry, amplitude, and phase shift that minimize the sum of squared errors when comparing the observed and predicted GDD. The resulting curve, here referred to as the surrogate GDD, is the time-temperature phasing parameter used to convert Cartesian NDVI values into polar coordinate pairs, multiplying the NDVI values as the radial by the cosine and sine of the surrogate GDD as the angular. Depending on the vegetation type and the original NDVI curve, the polar NDVI curve may be nearly circular, kidney-shaped, or pear-shaped in the case of conifers, deciduous, or agriculture, respectively. We examine the points of tangency about the polar coordinate NDVI curve, identifying values of 1, 0, -1, or infinity, as each of these represent natural inflection points. Lines connecting the origin to each tangent point illustrate and quantify the parametrically segmentation of the growing season based on the GDD and NDVI ostensible dependency. Furthermore, the area contained by each segment represents the apparent vegetation production. A particular benefit is that the inflection points are determined

Additional pest surveyed: hickory decline

Science.gov (United States)

Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Hyun. Park

2011-01-01

A five year investigation of the cause of rapid crown decline and mortality of bitternut hickory was concluded in September 2011. Results of a series of related studies found that multiple cankers and xylem (the water conducting tissue) dysfunction caused by Ceratocystis smalleyi are correlated with rapid crown decline typical of a limited vascular...

The curve shortening problem

CERN Document Server

Chou, Kai-Seng

2001-01-01

Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.

Effect of soybean hulls on lactation curves and the composition of goat milk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maximiliane Alavarse Zambom

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to evaluate the effects of soybean hulls (SBH as a ground corn replacement (0, 50, and 100% SBH on the parameters of the lactation curve and on lactation curves and milk composition. Fourteen multiparous Saanen goats were used during their lactation period, from kidding until the drying of their milk on the 228th day of lactation, and were distributed in a completely randomised design. The data was analysed using Bayesian methodology to minimise the effect of the low number of animals and to allow for comparison of the curve parameters estimated by Wood's nonlinear model. The SBH had no effect on the initial milk yield; nevertheless, the SBH reduced the rate of yield until lactation peak and accelerated the declining rate of yield after lactation. The treatments did not affect dry matter intake. The inclusion of SBH increased the fat content in the milk, which was also influenced by the lactation stage of the goats. Effects were observed on polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA, PUFA/total AG ratio, and the n-6:n-3 ratio of goat milk fat. The lactation stage changed the content of saturated fatty acid, monounsaturated fatty acid, and C18:2 (conjugated linoleic acid. The SBH can therefore be used as a ground corn replacement in the diets of lactating goats, as changes in the lactation curve parameters did not result in changes in total yields. Nevertheless, if the milk fat increases, then as quality rises, so could payment by quality, and thus an increase in profit margins per liter of milk sold.

Agrochemicals increase trematode infections in a declining amphibian species.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Schotthoefer, Anna M; Raffel, Thomas R; Carrick, Hunter J; Halstead, Neal; Hoverman, Jason T; Johnson, Catherine M; Johnson, Lucinda B; Lieske, Camilla; Piwoni, Marvin D; Schoff, Patrick K; Beasley, Val R

2008-10-30

Global amphibian declines have often been attributed to disease, but ignorance of the relative importance and mode of action of potential drivers of infection has made it difficult to develop effective remediation. In a field study, here we show that the widely used herbicide, atrazine, was the best predictor (out of more than 240 plausible candidates) of the abundance of larval trematodes (parasitic flatworms) in the declining northern leopard frog Rana pipiens. The effects of atrazine were consistent across trematode taxa. The combination of atrazine and phosphate--principal agrochemicals in global corn and sorghum production--accounted for 74% of the variation in the abundance of these often debilitating larval trematodes (atrazine alone accounted for 51%). Analysis of field data supported a causal mechanism whereby both agrochemicals increase exposure and susceptibility to larval trematodes by augmenting snail intermediate hosts and suppressing amphibian immunity. A mesocosm experiment demonstrated that, relative to control tanks, atrazine tanks had immunosuppressed tadpoles, had significantly more attached algae and snails, and had tadpoles with elevated trematode loads, further supporting a causal relationship between atrazine and elevated trematode infections in amphibians. These results raise concerns about the role of atrazine and phosphate in amphibian declines, and illustrate the value of quantifying the relative importance of several possible drivers of disease risk while determining the mechanisms by which they facilitate disease emergence.

Estimating the cost of production stoppage

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1979-01-01

Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

Lung function decline in COPD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tantucci C

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Claudio Tantucci, Denise ModinaUnit of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, ItalyAbstract: The landmark study of Fletcher and Peto on the natural history of tobacco smoke-related chronic airflow obstruction suggested that decline in the forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is slow at the beginning, becoming faster with more advanced disease. The present authors reviewed spirometric data of COPD patients included in the placebo arms of recent clinical trials to assess the lung function decline of each stage, defined according to the severity of airflow obstruction as proposed by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines. In large COPD populations the mean rate of FEV1 decline in GOLD stages II and III is between 47 and 79 mL/year and 56 and 59 mL/year, respectively, and lower than 35 mL/year in GOLD stage IV. Few data on FEV1 decline are available for GOLD stage I. Hence, the loss of lung function, assessed as expiratory airflow reduction, seems more accelerated and therefore more relevant in the initial phases of COPD. To have an impact on the natural history of COPD, it is logical to look at the effects of treatment in the earlier stages.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, decline, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FEV1

Brain Amyloid Deposition and Longitudinal Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Older Subjects: Results from a Multi-Ethnic Population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yian Gu

Full Text Available We aimed to whether the abnormally high amyloid-β (Aβ level in the brain among apparently healthy elders is related with subtle cognitive deficits and/or accelerated cognitive decline.A total of 116 dementia-free participants (mean age 84.5 years of the Washington Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project completed 18F-Florbetaben PET imaging. Positive or negative cerebral Aβ deposition was assessed visually. Quantitative cerebral Aβ burden was calculated as the standardized uptake value ratio in pre-established regions of interest using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Cognition was determined using a neuropsychological battery and selected tests scores were combined into four composite scores (memory, language, executive/speed, and visuospatial using exploratory factor analysis. We examined the relationship between cerebral Aβ level and longitudinal cognition change up to 20 years before the PET scan using latent growth curve models, controlling for age, education, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE genotype.Positive reading of Aβ was found in 41 of 116 (35% individuals. Cognitive scores at scan time was not related with Aβ. All cognitive scores declined over time. Aβ positive reading (B = -0.034, p = 0.02 and higher Aβ burden in temporal region (B = -0.080, p = 0.02 were associated with faster decline in executive/speed. Stratified analyses showed that higher Aβ deposition was associated with faster longitudinal declines in mean cognition, language, and executive/speed in African-Americans or in APOE ε4 carriers, and with faster memory decline in APOE ε4 carriers. The associations remained significant after excluding mild cognitive impairment participants.High Aβ deposition in healthy elders was associated with decline in executive/speed in the decade before neuroimaging, and the association was observed primarily in African-Americans and APOE ε4 carriers. Our results suggest that measuring cerebral Aβ may give us

Analysis of interacting quantum field theory in curved spacetime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birrell, N.D.; Taylor, J.G.

1980-01-01

A detailed analysis of interacting quantized fields propagating in a curved background spacetime is given. Reduction formulas for S-matrix elements in terms of vacuum Green's functions are derived, special attention being paid to the possibility that the ''in'' and ''out'' vacuum states may not be equivalent. Green's functions equations are obtained and a diagrammatic representation for them given, allowing a formal, diagrammatic renormalization to be effected. Coordinate space techniques for showing renormalizability are developed in Minkowski space, for lambdaphi 3 /sub() 4,6/ field theories. The extension of these techniques to curved spacetimes is considered. It is shown that the possibility of field theories becoming nonrenormalizable there cannot be ruled out, although, allowing certain modifications to the theory, phi 3 /sub( 4 ) is proven renormalizable in a large class of spacetimes. Finally particle production from the vacuum by the gravitational field is discussed with particular reference to Schwarzschild spacetime. We shed some light on the nonlocalizability of the production process and on the definition of the S matrix for such processes

Correlates of Recent Declines of Rodents in Northern and Southern Australia: Habitat Structure Is Critical.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J Lawes

Full Text Available Australia has experienced dramatic declines and extinctions of its native rodent species over the last 200 years, particularly in southern Australia. In the tropical savanna of northern Australia significant declines have occurred only in recent decades. The later onset of these declines suggests that the causes may differ from earlier declines in the south. We examine potential regional effects (northern versus southern Australia on biological and ecological correlates of range decline in Australian rodents. We demonstrate that rodent declines have been greater in the south than in the tropical north, are strongly influenced by phylogeny, and are consistently greater for species inhabiting relatively open or sparsely vegetated habitat. Unlike in marsupials, where some species have much larger body size than rodents, body mass was not an important predictor of decline in rodents. All Australian rodent species are within the prey-size range of cats (throughout the continent and red foxes (in the south. Contrary to the hypothesis that mammal declines are related directly to ecosystem productivity (annual rainfall, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that disturbances such as fire and grazing, which occur in non-rainforest habitats and remove cover used by rodents for shelter, nesting and foraging, increase predation risk. We agree with calls to introduce conservation management that limits the size and intensity of fires, increases fire patchiness and reduces grazing impacts at ecological scales appropriate for rodents. Controlling feral predators, even creating predator-free reserves in relatively sparsely-vegetated habitats, is urgently required to ensure the survival of rodent species, particularly in northern Australia where declines are not yet as severe as those in the south.

US forest products in the global economy

Science.gov (United States)

Dave N Wear; Jeff Prestemon; Michaela O. Foster

2015-01-01

The United States’ shares of global industrial roundwood production and derivative products have declined precipitously since the 1990s. We evaluate the extent of these declines compared with those of major producing countries from 1961 to 2013. We find that the US global share of industrial roundwood peaked at 28% in 1999 but by 2013 was at 17%, with the decline...

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillaume Souchay

Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

Part 5: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and Area under the Curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Safari

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Multiple diagnostic tools are used by emergency physicians,every day. In addition, new tools are evaluated to obtainmore accurate methods and reduce time or cost of conventionalones. In the previous parts of this educationalseries, we described diagnostic performance characteristicsof diagnostic tests including sensitivity, specificity, positiveand negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios. Thereceiver operating characteristics (ROC curve is a graphicalpresentation of screening characteristics. ROC curve is usedto determine the best cutoff point and compare two or moretests or observers by measuring the area under the curve(AUC. In this part of our educational series, we explain ROCcurve and two methods to determine the best cutoff value.

The diverse broad-band light-curves of Swift GRBs reproduced with the cannonball model

CERN Document Server

Dado, Shlomo; De Rújula, A

2009-01-01

Two radiation mechanisms, inverse Compton scattering (ICS) and synchrotron radiation (SR), suffice within the cannonball (CB) model of long gamma ray bursts (LGRBs) and X-ray flashes (XRFs) to provide a very simple and accurate description of their observed prompt emission and afterglows. Simple as they are, the two mechanisms and the burst environment generate the rich structure of the light curves at all frequencies and times. This is demonstrated for 33 selected Swift LGRBs and XRFs, which are well sampled from early time until late time and well represent the entire diversity of the broad band light curves of Swift LGRBs and XRFs. Their prompt gamma-ray and X-ray emission is dominated by ICS of glory light. During their fast decline phase, ICS is taken over by SR which dominates their broad band afterglow. The pulse shape and spectral evolution of the gamma-ray peaks and the early-time X-ray flares, and even the delayed optical `humps' in XRFs, are correctly predicted. The canonical and non-canonical X-ra...

Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.-H.

1998-01-01

On their bumpy road to commercialization, hydrogen production, delivery and conversion technologies not only require dedicated research, development and demonstration efforts, but also protected niche markets and early adopters. While niche markets utilize the unique technological properties of hydrogen, adopters exhibit a willingness to pay a premium for hydrogen fueled energy services. The concept of the technology learning curve is applied to estimate the capital requirements associated with the commercialization process of several hydrogen technologies. (author)

Suboptimal and optimal order policies for fixed and varying replenishment interval with declining market

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Jonas C. P.; Wee, H. M.; Yang, P. C.; Wu, Simon

2016-06-01

One of the supply chain risks for hi-tech products is the result of rapid technological innovation; it results in a significant decline in the selling price and demand after the initial launch period. Hi-tech products include computers and communication consumer's products. From a practical standpoint, a more realistic replenishment policy is needed to consider the impact of risks; especially when some portions of shortages are lost. In this paper, suboptimal and optimal order policies with partial backordering are developed for a buyer when the component cost, the selling price, and the demand rate decline at a continuous rate. Two mathematical models are derived and discussed: one model has the suboptimal solution with the fixed replenishment interval and a simpler computational process; the other one has the optimal solution with the varying replenishment interval and a more complicated computational process. The second model results in more profit. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the two replenishment models. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the parameters and the net profit.

Power Curve Measurements, quantify the production increase

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gómez Arranz, Paula; Vesth, Allan

The purpose of this report is to quantify the production increase on a given turbine with respect to another given turbine. The used methodology is the “side by side” comparison method, provided by the client. This method involves the use of two neighboring turbines and it is based...

Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils

OpenAIRE

Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter

2004-01-01

In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...

Method of construction spatial transition curve

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Didanov

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The movement of rail transport (speed rolling stock, traffic safety, etc. is largely dependent on the quality of the track. In this case, a special role is the transition curve, which ensures smooth insertion of the transition from linear to circular section of road. The article deals with modeling of spatial transition curve based on the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion. This is a continuation of research conducted by the authors regarding the spatial modeling of curved contours. Methodology. Construction of the spatial transition curve is numerical methods for solving nonlinear integral equations, where the initial data are taken coordinate the starting and ending points of the curve of the future, and the inclination of the tangent and the deviation of the curve from the tangent plane at these points. System solutions for the numerical method are the partial derivatives of the equations of the unknown parameters of the law of change of torsion and length of the transition curve. Findings. The parametric equations of the spatial transition curve are calculated by finding the unknown coefficients of the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion, as well as the spatial length of the transition curve. Originality. A method for constructing the spatial transition curve is devised, and based on this software geometric modeling spatial transition curves of railway track with specified deviations of the curve from the tangent plane. Practical value. The resulting curve can be applied in any sector of the economy, where it is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from linear to circular section of the curved space bypass. An example is the transition curve in the construction of the railway line, road, pipe, profile, flat section of the working blades of the turbine and compressor, the ship, plane, car, etc.

Photoelectic BV Light Curves of Algol and the Interpretations of the Light Curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho-Il Kim

1985-06-01

Full Text Available Standardized B and V photoelectric light curves of Algol are made with the observations obtained during 1982-84 with the 40-cm and the 61-cm reflectors of Yonsei University Observatory. These light curves show asymmetry between ascending and descending shoulders. The ascending shoulder is 0.02 mag brighter than descending shoulder in V light curve and 0.03 mag in B light curve. These asymmetric light curves are interpreted as the result of inhomogeneous energy distribution on the surface of one star of the eclipsing pair rather than the result of gaseous stream flowing from KOIV to B8V star. The 180-year periodicity, so called great inequality, are most likely the result proposed by Kim et al. (1983 that the abrupt and discrete mass losses of cooler component may be the cause of this orbital change. The amount of mass loss deduced from these discrete period changes turned out to be of the order of 10^(-6 - 10^(-5 Msolar.

Definition and measurement of statistical gloss parameters from curved objects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuivalainen, Kalle; Oksman, Antti; Peiponen, Kai-Erik

2010-09-20

Gloss standards are commonly defined for gloss measurement from flat surfaces, and, accordingly, glossmeters are typically developed for flat objects. However, gloss inspection of convex, concave, and small products is also important. In this paper, we define statistical gloss parameters for curved objects and measure gloss data on convex and concave surfaces using two different diffractive-optical-element-based glossmeters. Examples of measurements with the two diffractive-optical-element-based glossmeters are given for convex and concave aluminum pipe samples with and without paint. The defined gloss parameters for curved objects are useful in the characterization of the surface quality of metal pipes and other objects.

Definition and measurement of statistical gloss parameters from curved objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuivalainen, Kalle; Oksman, Antti; Peiponen, Kai-Erik

2010-01-01

Gloss standards are commonly defined for gloss measurement from flat surfaces, and, accordingly, glossmeters are typically developed for flat objects. However, gloss inspection of convex, concave, and small products is also important. In this paper, we define statistical gloss parameters for curved objects and measure gloss data on convex and concave surfaces using two different diffractive-optical-element-based glossmeters. Examples of measurements with the two diffractive-optical-element-based glossmeters are given for convex and concave aluminum pipe samples with and without paint. The defined gloss parameters for curved objects are useful in the characterization of the surface quality of metal pipes and other objects.

A Journey Between Two Curves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey A. Cherkis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.

Is racial prejudice declining in Britain?

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Robert

2008-12-01

This article employs two previously neglected indicators of racial prejudice from the British Social Attitudes surveys to examine the social distribution of prejudices against black and Asian Britons. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested: that racial prejudice is declining in Britain; that this decline is principally generational in nature; and that greater prejudice is shown towards more culturally distinct Asian minorities than black minorities. Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s. Little evidence is found for the third hypothesis: British reactions towards black and Asian minorities are broadly similar suggesting racial differences may still be the main factor prompting white hostility to British minorities.

Bond yield curve construction

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Kožul Nataša

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

Exquisite Nova Light Curves from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)

Science.gov (United States)

Hounsell, R.; Bode, M. F.; Hick, P. P.; Buffington, A.; Jackson, B. V.; Clover, J. M.; Shafter, A. W.; Darnley, M. J.; Mawson, N. R.; Steele, I. A.; Evans, A.; Eyres, S. P. S.; O'Brien, T. J.

2010-11-01

We present light curves of three classical novae (CNe; KT Eridani, V598 Puppis, V1280 Scorpii) and one recurrent nova (RS Ophiuchi) derived from data obtained by the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) on board the Coriolis satellite. SMEI provides near complete skymap coverage with precision visible-light photometry at 102 minute cadence. The light curves derived from these skymaps offer unprecedented temporal resolution around, and especially before, maximum light, a phase of the eruption normally not covered by ground-based observations. They allow us to explore fundamental parameters of individual objects including the epoch of the initial explosion, the reality and duration of any pre-maximum halt (found in all three fast novae in our sample), the presence of secondary maxima, speed of decline of the initial light curve, plus precise timing of the onset of dust formation (in V1280 Sco) leading to estimation of the bolometric luminosity, white dwarf mass, and object distance. For KT Eri, Liverpool Telescope SkyCamT data confirm important features of the SMEI light curve and overall our results add weight to the proposed similarities of this object to recurrent rather than to CNe. In RS Oph, comparison with hard X-ray data from the 2006 outburst implies that the onset of the outburst coincides with extensive high-velocity mass loss. It is also noted that two of the four novae we have detected (V598 Pup and KT Eri) were only discovered by ground-based observers weeks or months after maximum light, yet these novae reached peak magnitudes of 3.46 and 5.42, respectively. This emphasizes the fact that many bright novae per year are still overlooked, particularly those of the very fast speed class. Coupled with its ability to observe novae in detail even when relatively close to the Sun in the sky, we estimate that as many as five novae per year may be detectable by SMEI.

Fatores que influenciam os parâmetros das curvas de lactação em cabras no Distrito Federal Factors which influence parameters of goat lactation curves in the Federal District

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Concepta McManus

2003-12-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a influência de fatores ambientais sobre a forma de curvas de lactação (Quadrática, Gama, Linear Hiperbólica e Jenkins e Ferrel de cabras das raças Saanen, Parda Alpina, Toggenburg e seus mestiços. Foram usados registros de 299 lactações de 215 cabras criadas em dois criatórios localizados no Distrito Federal no período de 1995 a 1997. Os parâmetros das curvas de lactação (produção no início da lactação - a, taxa média de ascenção - b e taxa média de declínio após o pico - c foram estimados pelo programa "Table Curve" da companhia de Jandel Scientific. Estes parâmetros foram analisados usando o programa SAS com os procedimentos Corr e GLM. O modelo estatístico incluiu como fatores fixos o capril, a raça, o mês e o ano de parto, tipo de parto, sexo do cabrito, e o peso de cobertura foi utilizado como covariável. Os parâmetros a e c foram influenciados pela raça, pelo mês do parto e pelo tipo do parto. As curvas Quadrática e Linear Hiperbólica tiveram os maiores R². As correlações entre os parâmetros das curvas e os índices zootécnicos, no geral, foram altas e positivas. Este estudo mostra que qualquer uma das funções estudadas poderia representar a curva de lactação individual do rebanho, no entanto, a que melhor expressou os parâmetros na formação da curva foi a função Quadrática, enquanto aquelas que melhor descreveram a produtividade foram o Linear Hiperbólica e Jenkins e Ferrel.The objetive of this work was to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on the shape of lactation curves (Quadratic, Gama, Linear Hiperbolic and Jenkins & Ferrel of Saanen, Alpine and Toggenburg as well as mixed breed goats. Data from 299 lactations of 215 goats raised on two farms in the Federal District from 1995 to 1997 was used. The parameters of the lactation curves (yield at start of lactation- a, rate of increase of milk production - b e rate of decline of milk

Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florentin ŞPERLEA

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document

Chinese culture and fertility decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C; Jia, S

1992-01-01

Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

Research on Standard and Automatic Judgment of Press-fit Curve of Locomotive Wheel-set Based on AAR Standard

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jun; Xiao, Jun; Gao, Dong Jun; Zong, Shu Yu; Li, Zhu

2018-03-01

In the production of the Association of American Railroads (AAR) locomotive wheel-set, the press-fit curve is the most important basis for the reliability of wheel-set assembly. In the past, Most of production enterprises mainly use artificial detection methods to determine the quality of assembly. There are cases of miscarriage of justice appear. For this reason, the research on the standard is carried out. And the automatic judgment of press-fit curve is analysed and designed, so as to provide guidance for the locomotive wheel-set production based on AAR standard.

Scaling of counter-current imbibition recovery curves using artificial neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jafari, Iman; Masihi, Mohsen; Nasiri Zarandi, Masoud

2018-06-01

Scaling imbibition curves are of great importance in the characterization and simulation of oil production from naturally fractured reservoirs. Different parameters such as matrix porosity and permeability, oil and water viscosities, matrix dimensions, and oil/water interfacial tensions have an effective on the imbibition process. Studies on the scaling imbibition curves along with the consideration of different assumptions have resulted in various scaling equations. In this work, using an artificial neural network (ANN) method, a novel technique is presented for scaling imbibition recovery curves, which can be used for scaling the experimental and field-scale imbibition cases. The imbibition recovery curves for training and testing the neural network were gathered through the simulation of different scenarios using a commercial reservoir simulator. In this ANN-based method, six parameters were assumed to have an effect on the imbibition process and were considered as the inputs for training the network. Using the ‘Bayesian regularization’ training algorithm, the network was trained and tested. Training and testing phases showed superior results in comparison with the other scaling methods. It is concluded that using the new technique is useful for scaling imbibition recovery curves, especially for complex cases, for which the common scaling methods are not designed.

Cluster Decline and Resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Christian Richter; Park, Eun Kyung

Most studies on regional clusters focus on identifying factors and processes that make clusters grow. However, sometimes technologies and market conditions suddenly shift, and clusters decline. This paper analyses the process of decline of the wireless communication cluster in Denmark, 1963......-2011. Our longitudinal study reveals that technological lock-in and exit of key firms have contributed to impairment of the cluster’s resilience in adapting to disruptions. Entrepreneurship has a positive effect on cluster resilience, while multinational companies have contradicting effects by bringing...... in new resources to the cluster but being quick to withdraw in times of crisis....

Prospects for PV: a learning curve analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwaan, Bob van der; Rabi, A.

2003-01-01

This article gives an overview of the current state-of-the-art of photovoltaic electricity technology, and addresses its potential for cost reductions over the first few decades of the 21st century. Current PV production cost ranges are presented, both in terms of capacity installation and electricity generation, of single crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and other thin film technologies. Possible decreases of these costs are assessed, as expected according to the learning-curve methodology. We also estimate how much PV could gain if external costs (due to environmental and health damage) of energy were internalised, for example by an energy tax. Our conclusions are that, (1) mainly due its high costs, PV electricity is unlikely to play a major role in global energy supply and carbon emissions abatement before 2020, (2) extrapolating learning curves observed in the past, one can expect its costs to decrease significantly over the coming years, so that a considerable PV electricity share world-wide could materialise after 2020, (3) niche-market applications, e.g. using stand-alone systems in remote areas, are crucial for continuing 'the ride along the learning curve', (4) damage costs of conventional (fossil) power sources are considerable, and their internalisation would improve the competitiveness of PV, although probably not enough to close the current cost gap. (author)

Maturation curves of sweet sorghum genotypes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renan Silva e Souza

2016-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Sweet sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L. Moench] stands out as a complementary crop to sugarcane Saccharum spp. for the production of ethanol, since it has juicy stems with directly fermentable sugars. Due to this fact, there is a need for the analysis of sweet sorghum properties in order to meet the agro-industry demand. This work aimed to develop and study the maturation curves of seven sweet sorghum cultivars in ten harvest dates. The results showed a significant difference between cultivars and harvest dates for all parameters analysed (p≤0.01. Regarding the sugar content, the cultivars BRS508, XBWS80147 and CMSX629 showed the highest means for the total reducing sugars (TRS and recoverable sugar (RS. In the production of ethanol per tonne of biomass (EP, the cultivars BRS508 and CMSX629 presented the best results.

Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

2000-01-01

A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

A catalog of special plane curves

CERN Document Server

Lawrence, J Dennis

2014-01-01

Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.

Intersection numbers of spectral curves

CERN Document Server

Eynard, B.

2011-01-01

We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.

Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.

2011-01-01

More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential

Differential geometry and topology of curves

CERN Document Server

Animov, Yu

2001-01-01

Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.

Models of genus one curves

OpenAIRE

Sadek, Mohammad

2010-01-01

In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...

The crime kuznets curve

OpenAIRE

Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando

2014-01-01

We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...

Cost curves for implantation of small scale hydroelectric power plant project in function of the average annual energy production; Curvas de custo de implantacao de pequenos projetos hidreletricos em funcao da producao media anual de energia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veja, Fausto Alfredo Canales; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes; Beluco, Alexandre

2008-10-15

Because of its maturity, small hydropower generation is one of the main energy sources to be considered for electrification of areas far from the national grid. Once a site with hydropower potential is identified, technical and economical studies to assess its feasibility shall be done. Cost curves are helpful tools in the appraisal of the economical feasibility of this type of projects. This paper presents a method to determine initial cost curves as a function of the average energy production of the hydropower plant, by using a set of parametric cost curves and the flow duration curve at the analyzed location. The method is illustrated using information related to 18 pre-feasibility studies made in 2002, at the Central-Atlantic rural region of Nicaragua. (author)

Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

Science.gov (United States)

Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

2008-01-01

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

Understanding Amphibian Declines Through Geographic Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Gallant, Alisa

2006-01-01

Growing concern over worldwide amphibian declines warrants serious examination. Amphibians are important to the proper functioning of ecosystems and provide many direct benefits to humans in the form of pest and disease control, pharmaceutical compounds, and even food. Amphibians have permeable skin and rely on both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems during different seasons and stages of their lives. Their association with these ecosystems renders them likely to serve as sensitive indicators of environmental change. While much research on amphibian declines has centered on mysterious causes, or on causes that directly affect humans (global warming, chemical pollution, ultraviolet-B radiation), most declines are the result of habitat loss and habitat alteration. Improving our ability to characterize, model, and monitor the interactions between environmental variables and amphibian habitats is key to addressing amphibian conservation. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) to address issues surrounding amphibian declines.

Impact of switching production to bioenergy crops: the switchgrass example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDonald, S. [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom); Robinson, S. [Sussex Univ., Brighton (United Kingdom); Thierfelder, K. [U.S. Naval Academy (United States)

2006-03-15

This paper reports the results from simulations that evaluate the general equilibrium effects of substituting switchgrass, a biomass, for crude oil in USA petroleum production. The new production process is less efficient and USA GDP declines slightly. As switchgrass production expands, USA agriculture contracts and the world price of cereals increases. The world price of crude oil falls as USA import demand declines. The net effect of the price and income changes is a general decline in economic welfare. Moreover, the declines in welfare are proportionately greater for developing countries who produce small quantities of agricultural commodities whose prices increase. (author)

Improvements in scaling of counter-current imbibition recovery curves using a shape factor including permeability anisotropy

Science.gov (United States)

Abbasi, Jassem; Sarafrazi, Shiva; Riazi, Masoud; Ghaedi, Mojtaba

2018-02-01

Spontaneous imbibition is the main oil production mechanism in the water invaded zone of a naturally fractured reservoir (NFR). Different scaling equations have been presented in the literature for upscaling of core scale imbibition recovery curves to field scale matrix blocks. Various scale dependent parameters such as gravity effects and boundary influences are required to be considered in the upscaling process. Fluid flow from matrix blocks to the fracture system is highly dependent on the permeability value in the horizontal and vertical directions. The purpose of this study is to include permeability anisotropy in the available scaling equations to improve the prediction of imbibition assisted oil production in NFRs. In this paper, a commercial reservoir simulator was used to obtain imbibition recovery curves for different scenarios. Then, the effect of permeability anisotropy on imbibition recovery curves was investigated, and the weakness of the existing scaling equations for anisotropic rocks was demonstrated. Consequently, an analytical shape factor was introduced that can better scale all the curves related to anisotropic matrix blocks.

NEW CONCEPTS AND TEST METHODS OF CURVE PROFILE AREA DENSITY IN SURFACE: ESTIMATION OF AREAL DENSITY ON CURVED SPATIAL SURFACE

OpenAIRE

Hong Shen

2011-01-01

The concepts of curve profile, curve intercept, curve intercept density, curve profile area density, intersection density in containing intersection (or intersection density relied on intersection reference), curve profile intersection density in surface (or curve intercept intersection density relied on intersection of containing curve), and curve profile area density in surface (AS) were defined. AS expressed the amount of curve profile area of Y phase in the unit containing surface area, S...

Power Curve Estimation With Multivariate Environmental Factors for Inland and Offshore Wind Farms

KAUST Repository

Lee, Giwhyun

2015-04-22

In the wind industry, a power curve refers to the functional relationship between the power output generated by a wind turbine and the wind speed at the time of power generation. Power curves are used in practice for a number of important tasks including predicting wind power production and assessing a turbine’s energy production efficiency. Nevertheless, actual wind power data indicate that the power output is affected by more than just wind speed. Several other environmental factors, such as wind direction, air density, humidity, turbulence intensity, and wind shears, have potential impact. Yet, in industry practice, as well as in the literature, current power curve models primarily consider wind speed and, sometimes, wind speed and direction. We propose an additive multivariate kernel method that can include the aforementioned environmental factors as a new power curve model. Our model provides, conditional on a given environmental condition, both the point estimation and density estimation of power output. It is able to capture the nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and the wind power output, as well as the high-order interaction effects among some of the environmental factors. Using operational data associated with four turbines in an inland wind farm and two turbines in an offshore wind farm, we demonstrate the improvement achieved by our kernel method.

Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuart, Simon N; Chanson, Janice S; Cox, Neil A; Young, Bruce E; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Fischman, Debra L; Waller, Robert W

2004-12-03

The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

Science.gov (United States)

EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographical recall in AD is mainly characterized by loss of associated episodic information, which leads to de-contextualisation of autobiographical memories and a shift from reliving past events to a general sense of familiarity. This decline refers to retrograde, but also anterograde amnesia that affects newly acquired memories besides remote ones. One consequence of autobiographical memory decline in AD is decreased access to memories that shape self-consciousness, self-knowledge, and self-images, leading to a diminished sense of self and identity. The link between autobiographical decline and compromised sense of self in AD can also manifest itself as low correspondence and coherence between past memories and current goals and beliefs. By linking cognitive, neuroanatomical, and clinical aspects of autobiographical decline in AD, our review provides a theoretical foundation, which may lead to better rehabilitation strategies. PMID:26876367

Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, P

1998-10-01

About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, John

1997-01-01

Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…

Inverse Diffusion Curves Using Shape Optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Shuang; Durand, Fredo; Zheng, Changxi

2018-07-01

The inverse diffusion curve problem focuses on automatic creation of diffusion curve images that resemble user provided color fields. This problem is challenging since the 1D curves have a nonlinear and global impact on resulting color fields via a partial differential equation (PDE). We introduce a new approach complementary to previous methods by optimizing curve geometry. In particular, we propose a novel iterative algorithm based on the theory of shape derivatives. The resulting diffusion curves are clean and well-shaped, and the final image closely approximates the input. Our method provides a user-controlled parameter to regularize curve complexity, and generalizes to handle input color fields represented in a variety of formats.

Fixing the Phillips curve: The case of downward nominal wage rigidity in the US

OpenAIRE

Reitz, Stefan; Slopek, Ulf D.

2012-01-01

Whereas microeconomic studies point to pronounced downward rigidity of nominal wages in the US economy, the standard Phillips curve neglects such a feature. Using a stochastic frontier model we find macroeconomic evidence of a strictly nonnegative error in an otherwise standard Phillips curve in post-war data on the US nonfinancial corporate sector. This error depends on growth in the profit ratio, output, and trend productivity, which should all determine the flexibility of wage adjustments....

Retrograde curves of solidus and solubility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasil'ev, M.V.

1979-01-01

The investigation was concerned with the constitutional diagrams of the eutectic type with ''retrograde solidus'' and ''retrograde solubility curve'' which must be considered as diagrams with degenerate monotectic transformation. The solidus and the solubility curves form a retrograde curve with a common retrograde point representing the solubility maximum. The two branches of the Aetrograde curve can be described with the aid of two similar equations. Presented are corresponding equations for the Cd-Zn system and shown is the possibility of predicting the run of the solubility curve

[Customized and non-customized French intrauterine growth curves. II - Comparison with existing curves and benefits of customization].

Science.gov (United States)

Ego, A; Prunet, C; Blondel, B; Kaminski, M; Goffinet, F; Zeitlin, J

2016-02-01

Our aim is to compare the new French EPOPé intrauterine growth curves, developed to address the guidelines 2013 of the French College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, with reference curves currently used in France, and to evaluate the consequences of their adjustment for fetal sex and maternal characteristics. Eight intrauterine and birthweight curves, used in France were compared to the EPOPé curves using data from the French Perinatal Survey 2010. The influence of adjustment on the rate of SGA births and the characteristics of these births was analysed. Due to their birthweight values and distribution, the selected intrauterine curves are less suitable for births in France than the new curves. Birthweight curves led to low rates of SGA births from 4.3 to 8.5% compared to 10.0% with the EPOPé curves. The adjustment for maternal and fetal characteristics avoids the over-representation of girls among SGA births, and reclassifies 4% of births. Among births reclassified as SGA, the frequency of medical and obstetrical risk factors for growth restriction, smoking (≥10 cigarettes/day), and neonatal transfer is higher than among non-SGA births (P<0.01). The EPOPé curves are more suitable for French births than currently used curves, and their adjustment improves the identification of mothers and babies at risk of growth restriction and poor perinatal outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Extended analysis of cooling curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.

2002-01-01

Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)

Non-linear modelling to describe lactation curve in Gir crossbred cows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yogesh C. Bangar

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The modelling of lactation curve provides guidelines in formulating farm managerial practices in dairy cows. The aim of the present study was to determine the suitable non-linear model which most accurately fitted to lactation curves of five lactations in 134 Gir crossbred cows reared in Research-Cum-Development Project (RCDP on Cattle farm, MPKV (Maharashtra. Four models viz. gamma-type function, quadratic model, mixed log function and Wilmink model were fitted to each lactation separately and then compared on the basis of goodness of fit measures viz. adjusted R2, root mean square error (RMSE, Akaike’s Informaion Criteria (AIC and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC. Results In general, highest milk yield was observed in fourth lactation whereas it was lowest in first lactation. Among the models investigated, mixed log function and gamma-type function provided best fit of the lactation curve of first and remaining lactations, respectively. Quadratic model gave least fit to lactation curve in almost all lactations. Peak yield was observed as highest and lowest in fourth and first lactation, respectively. Further, first lactation showed highest persistency but relatively higher time to achieve peak yield than other lactations. Conclusion Lactation curve modelling using gamma-type function may be helpful to setting the management strategies at farm level, however, modelling must be optimized regularly before implementing them to enhance productivity in Gir crossbred cows.

Adaptive robust polynomial regression for power curve modeling with application to wind power forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Man; Pinson, Pierre; Lu, Zongxiang

2016-01-01

of the lack of time adaptivity. In this paper, a refined local polynomial regression algorithm is proposed to yield an adaptive robust model of the time-varying scattered power curve for forecasting applications. The time adaptivity of the algorithm is considered with a new data-driven bandwidth selection......Wind farm power curve modeling, which characterizes the relationship between meteorological variables and power production, is a crucial procedure for wind power forecasting. In many cases, power curve modeling is more impacted by the limited quality of input data rather than the stochastic nature...... of the energy conversion process. Such nature may be due the varying wind conditions, aging and state of the turbines, etc. And, an equivalent steady-state power curve, estimated under normal operating conditions with the intention to filter abnormal data, is not sufficient to solve the problem because...

TOWARD CHARACTERIZATION OF THE TYPE IIP SUPERNOVA PROGENITOR POPULATION: A STATISTICAL SAMPLE OF LIGHT CURVES FROM Pan-STARRS1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Chornock, R.; Berger, E.; Challis, P.; Drout, M.; Kirshner, R. P.; Lunnan, R.; Marion, G. H.; Margutti, R.; McKinnon, R.; Milisavljevic, D. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Gezari, S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States); Betancourt, M. [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry (United Kingdom); Foley, R. J. [Astronomy Department, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1002 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Narayan, G. [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Rest, A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Kankare, E.; Mattila, S. [Finnish Centre for Astronomy with ESO (FINCA), University of Turku, Väisäläntie 20, 21500 Piikkiö (Finland); Smartt, S. J., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queens University, BT7 1NN, Belfast (United Kingdom); and others

2015-02-01

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multiband imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SNe): systematic light-curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 yr and classified using both spectroscopy and machine-learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multiband evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a subpopulation of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as ''Type IIL'' SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for SN cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of ≲ 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light-curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multiband light-curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide-field transient searches.

Cognitive declines precede and predict functional declines in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura B Zahodne

Full Text Available To investigate the temporal ordering of cognitive and functional declines separately in older adults with or without Alzheimer's disease (AD.A community-based longitudinal study of aging and dementia in Northern Manhattan (Washington Heights/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project and a multicenter, clinic-based longitudinal study of prevalent AD at Columbia University Medical Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, and the Hôpital de la Salpêtrière in Paris, France (the Predictors Study.3,443 initially non-demented older adults (612 with eventual incident dementia and 517 patients with AD.Cognitive measures included the modified Mini-Mental State Exam and composite scores of memory and language derived from a standardized neuropsychological battery. Function was measured with the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale, completed by the participant (in the sample of non-demented older adults or an informant (in the sample of prevalent AD patients. Data were analyzed with autoregressive cross-lagged panel analysis.Cognitive scores more consistently predicted subsequent functional abilities than vice versa in non-demented older adults, participants with eventual incident dementia, and patients with prevalent AD.Cognitive declines appear to precede and cause functional declines prior to and following dementia diagnosis. Standardized neuropsychological tests are valid predictors of later functional changes in both non-demented and demented older adults.

Oil exploitation and the environmental Kuznets curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Abdollahzadeh, Negar

2009-01-01

This study refers to a panel estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for oil to determine the factors most affecting oil exploitation in 38 oil-producing countries during 1990-2000. Control variables such as oil reserves, oil price, population, political rights, and the Gini index were used to determine its contribution to the main EKC model. The empirical results fully support the existence of an EKC for oil exploitation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the proved oil reserves has a significant and positive role in oil production, but oil price and population do not significantly affect crude oil production. Also, increased freedoms and a better income distribution will reduce the rate of oil exploitation. Thus, policies aiming at enhancing democratic society and better income distribution would be more compatible with sustainability. (author)

Oil exploitation and the environmental Kuznets curve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Abdollahzadeh, Negar [Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Fars (Iran)

2009-01-15

This study refers to a panel estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for oil to determine the factors most affecting oil exploitation in 38 oil-producing countries during 1990-2000. Control variables such as oil reserves, oil price, population, political rights, and the Gini index were used to determine its contribution to the main EKC model. The empirical results fully support the existence of an EKC for oil exploitation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the proved oil reserves has a significant and positive role in oil production, but oil price and population do not significantly affect crude oil production. Also, increased freedoms and a better income distribution will reduce the rate of oil exploitation. Thus, policies aiming at enhancing democratic society and better income distribution would be more compatible with sustainability. (author)

Tempo curves considered harmful

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Desain, P.; Honing, H.

1993-01-01

In the literature of musicology, computer music research and the psychology of music, timing or tempo measurements are mostly presented in the form of continuous curves. The notion of these tempo curves is dangerous, despite its widespread use, because it lulls its users into the false impression

Linking Terrigenous Sediment Delivery to Declines in Coral ...

Science.gov (United States)

Worldwide coral reef conditions continue to decline despite the valuable socioeconomic benefits of these ecosystems. There is growing recognition that quantifying reefs in terms reflecting what stakeholders value is vital for comparing inherent tradeoffs among coastal management decisions. Terrestrial sediment runoff ranks high as a stressor to coral reefs and is a key concern in Puerto Rico where reefs are among the most threatened in the Caribbean. This research aimed to identify the degree to which sediment runoff impacts production of coral reef ecosystem services and the potential for watershed management actions to improve these services. Ecosystem service production functions were applied to map and translate metrics of ecological reef condition into ecosystem service production under a gradient of increasing sediment delivery. We found that higher sediment delivery decreased provisioning of most ecosystem services, including ecosystem integrity, bioprospecting discovery, and reef-based recreational opportunities and fisheries production. However, shoreline protection and services with a strong contribution from non-reef habitats (e.g., mangroves, seagrasses) were higher in locations with high sediment delivery, although there was a strong inshore effect suggesting the influence of distance to shore, depth, and inshore habitats. Differences among services may indicate potential tradeoffs and the need to consider habitat connectivity, nursery habitat, acce

Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

2009-01-01

This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

Iso-α-acids, bitter components of beer, prevent obesity-induced cognitive decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayabe, Tatsuhiro; Ohya, Rena; Kondo, Keiji; Ano, Yasuhisa

2018-03-19

Dementia and cognitive decline have become worldwide public health problems, and it was recently reported that life-style related diseases and obesity are key risk factors in dementia. Iso-α-acids, hop-derived bitter components of beer, have been reported to have various physiological functions via activation of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ. In this report, we demonstrated that daily intake of iso-α-acids suppresses inflammations in the hippocampus and improves cognitive decline induced by high fat diet (HFD). Body weight, epididymal fat weight, and plasma triglyceride levels were increased in HFD-fed mice, and significantly decreased in iso-α-acids supplemented HFD-fed mice. HFD feeding enhances the production of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, such as TNF-α, which was significantly suppressed by iso-α-acids administration. HFD-induced neuroinflammation caused lipid peroxidation, neuronal loss, and atrophy in hippocampus, and those were not observed in iso-α-acids-treated mice. Furthermore, iso-α-acids intake significantly improved cognitive decline induced by HFD-feeding. Iso-α-acids are food derived components that suppressing both lipid accumulation and brain inflammation, thus iso-α-acids might be beneficial for the risk of dementia increased by obesity and lifestyle-related diseases.

The development and decline of phytoplankton blooms in the southern Benguela upwelling region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, P.C.

1986-10-01

Productivity/chlorophyll a relationship are investigated with a view to estimating phytoplankton productivity from extensive chlorophyll a measurements in the southern Benguela region. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics in newly upwelled water off the Cape Peninsula are investigated on five different occasions during the upwelling season. A drogue was used to tag a 'parcel' of upwelled water which was monitored for between 4 and 8 days. In upwelling source water, mean chlorophyll a concentrations were typically low (0.7 mg.m -3 ) and nutrient concentrations were high (nitrates, silicates and phosphates were 20.8, 16.6 and 1.88 mmol.m -3 respectively). Along the drogue tracks nutrients decreased rapidly in the euphotic zone as chlorophyll increased to peak at concentrations of up to 26 mg.m -3 . Elemental changes in nitrates, silicates, phosphates and oxygen were used to estimate primary productivity. These 'Redfield productivity estimates' were similar to 14 C-uptake productivity but lower than estimates obtained from changes in particle volume. Daily rates of 14 C-uptake water column productivity ranged between 0.94 and 14.01 g C.m -2 .d -1 (mean 3.80 g C.m -2 .d -1 ) and were similar to or higher than productivity estimates reported for other upwelling areas. Phytoplankton biomass in the upper 50 metres ranged between 8 and 506 mg chll a. m -2 (mean 208 mg chll a.m -2 ). The temporal scale of phytoplankton bloom development was investigated in terms of changes in chlorophyll a concentrations in the euphotic zone. The build up and decline of the primary phytoplankton (diatom) bloom in newly upwelled water occurred within 6-8 days. The initiation of blooming was controlled by the stability of the water body. The decline of the bloom was associated with reduced nutrient levels and is considered to result mainly from phytoplankton cells sinking out of the surface layers

Analytical modeling of injectivity decline in perforated wells; Modelagem analitica da perda de injetividade em pocos canhoneados

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomes, Vanessa Limeira Azevedo; Santos, Adriano dos; Araujo, Juliana Aragao de [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), Natal, RN (Brazil)

2012-07-01

During water injection, reductions of permeability (or formation damage) have been observed in many reservoirs, characterizing the injectivity decline. The permeability reduction exists due to the presence of solid and liquid particles in suspension, which are present in the water injected to be. Like this, during the development of projects for the oil production in the water management area, the phenomenon of injectivity decline must be studied, among other activities. This study includes the theoretical and practical modeling of the injectivity decline. The modeling includes different analytical models (empirical and semi-empirical) and laboratory tests, accordingly. Looking forward to this, a simulator based on the classic filtration theory of porous media was developed in order to prevent the injectivity decline within perforated wells. The formation damage caused during deep filtration and cake formation (after transition time) was included in the modeling of perforated wells; the effect of superposition of the diverse perforations was also considered. Besides that, the injectivity decline forecast was made based on well history data. The simulator allowed to forecast the injectivity decline during water injection showing a good adjustment of field history data, so it could be used to assist in the planning of injection wells stimulation. (author)

Evaluation of PCR and high-resolution melt curve analysis for differentiation of Salmonella isolates.

Science.gov (United States)

Saeidabadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Nili, Hassan; Dadras, Habibollah; Sharifiyazdi, Hassan; Connolly, Joanne; Valcanis, Mary; Raidal, Shane; Ghorashi, Seyed Ali

2017-06-01

Consumption of poultry products contaminated with Salmonella is one of the major causes of foodborne diseases worldwide and therefore detection and differentiation of Salmonella spp. in poultry is important. In this study, oligonucleotide primers were designed from hemD gene and a PCR followed by high-resolution melt (HRM) curve analysis was developed for rapid differentiation of Salmonella isolates. Amplicons of 228 bp were generated from 16 different Salmonella reference strains and from 65 clinical field isolates mainly from poultry farms. HRM curve analysis of the amplicons differentiated Salmonella isolates and analysis of the nucleotide sequence of the amplicons from selected isolates revealed that each melting curve profile was related to a unique DNA sequence. The relationship between reference strains and tested specimens was also evaluated using a mathematical model without visual interpretation of HRM curves. In addition, the potential of the PCR-HRM curve analysis was evaluated for genotyping of additional Salmonella isolates from different avian species. The findings indicate that PCR followed by HRM curve analysis provides a rapid and robust technique for genotyping of Salmonella isolates to determine the serovar/serotype.

Image scaling curve generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2012-01-01

The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

Image scaling curve generation.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2011-01-01

The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then

Deformation of products cut on AWJ x-y tables and its suppression

Science.gov (United States)

Hlaváč, L. M.; Hlaváčová, I. M.; Plančár, Š.; Krenický, T.; Geryk, V.

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is namely investigation of the abrasive water jet (AWJ) cutting of column pieces on commercial x-y cutting machines with AWJ. The shape deformation in curved and/or stepped parts of cutting trajectories caused by both the trailback (declination angle) and the taper (inclination of cut walls) can be calculated from submitted analytical model. Some of the results were compared with data measured on samples cut on two types of commercial tables. The main motivation of this investigation is determination of the percentage difference between predicted and real distortion of cutting product, i.e. accuracy of prepared analytical model. Subsequently, the possibility of reduction of the distortion can be studied through implementation of the theoretical model into the control systems of the cutting machines with the system for cutting head tilting. Despite some limitations of the used AWJ machines the comparison of calculated dimensions with the real ones shows very good correlation of model and experimental data lying within the range of measurement uncertainty. Results on special device demonstrated that the shape deformation in curved parts of the cutting trajectory can be substantially reduced through tilting of the cutting head.

Two-year decline in vision but not hearing is associated with memory decline in very old adults in a population-based sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Anstey, K J; Luszcz, M A; Sanchez, L

2001-01-01

Recent cross-sectional research in cognitive aging has demonstrated a robust association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive performance in old age. However, the nature of the association is still unclear, particularly with respect to whether sensory and cognitive function are causally related. This study aimed to determine whether marked declines in performance on screening measures of either visual acuity or auditory thresholds have an effect on cognitive decline over 2 years. The sample from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (n = 2,087) were assessed in 1992 and 1994 on measures of sensory and cognitive function as part of a larger clinical assessment. A quasi-experimental design involving comparison of extreme groups using repeated measures MANCOVA with age as a covariate was used. Group performance on measures of hearing, memory, verbal ability and processing speed declined significantly. Decline in visual acuity had a significant effect on memory decline, but not on decline in verbal ability or processing speed. Decline in hearing was not associated with decline in any cognitive domain. The common association between visual acuity, auditory thresholds and cognitive function observed in cross-sectional studies appears to be disassociated in longitudinal studies. Copyright 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel

PRODUCTION OF CARBON PRODUCTS USING A COAL EXTRACTION PROCESS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dady Dadyburjor; Philip R. Biedler; Chong Chen; L. Mitchell Clendenin; Manoj Katakdaunde; Elliot B. Kennel; Nathan D. King; Liviu Magean; Peter G. Stansberry; Alfred H. Stiller; John W. Zondlo

2004-08-31

This Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory sponsored project developed carbon products, using mildly hydrogenated solvents to extract the organic portion of coal to create synthetic pitches, cokes, carbon foam and carbon fibers. The focus of this effort was on development of lower cost solvents, milder hydrogenation conditions and improved yield in order to enable practical production of these products. This technology is needed because of the long-term decline in production of domestic feedstocks such as petroleum pitch and coal tar pitch. Currently, carbon products represents a market of roughly 5 million tons domestically, and 19 million tons worldwide. Carbon products are mainly derived from feedstocks such as petroleum pitch and coal tar pitch. The domestic supply of petroleum pitch is declining because of the rising price of liquid fuels, which has caused US refineries to maximize liquid fuel production. As a consequence, the long term trend has a decline in production of petroleum pitch over the past 20 years. The production of coal tar pitch, as in the case of petroleum pitch, has likewise declined significantly over the past two decades. Coal tar pitch is a byproduct of metallurgical grade coke (metcoke) production. In this industry, modern metcoke facilities are recycling coal tar as fuel in order to enhance energy efficiency and minimize environmental emissions. Metcoke production itself is dependent upon the production requirements for domestic steel. Hence, several metcoke ovens have been decommissioned over the past two decades and have not been replaced. As a consequence sources of coal tar are being taken off line and are not being replaced. The long-term trend is a reduction in coal tar pitch production. Thus import of feedstocks, mainly from Eastern Europe and China, is on the rise despite the relatively large transportation cost. To reverse this trend, a new process for producing carbon products is needed. The process must be

Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferioli, F.; Schoots, K.; Zwaan, B.C.C. van der

2009-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the use of learning curves for the description of observed cost reductions for a variety of energy technologies. Starting point of our analysis is the representation of energy processes and technologies as the sum of different components. While we recognize that in many cases 'learning-by-doing' may improve the overall costs or efficiency of a technology, we argue that so far insufficient attention has been devoted to study the effects of single component improvements that together may explain an aggregated form of learning. Indeed, for an entire technology the phenomenon of learning-by-doing may well result from learning of one or a few individual components only. We analyze under what conditions it is possible to combine learning curves for single components to derive one comprehensive learning curve for the total product. The possibility that for certain technologies some components (e.g., the primary natural resources that serve as essential input) do not exhibit cost improvements might account for the apparent time dependence of learning rates reported in several studies (the learning rate might also change considerably over time depending on the data set considered, a crucial issue to be aware of when one uses the learning curve methodology). Such an explanation may have important consequences for the extent to which learning curves can be extrapolated into the future. This argumentation suggests that cost reductions may not continue indefinitely and that well-behaved learning curves do not necessarily exist for every product or technology. In addition, even for diffusing and maturing technologies that display clear learning effects, market and resource constraints can eventually significantly reduce the scope for further improvements in their fabrication or use. It appears likely that some technologies, such as wind turbines and photovoltaic cells, are significantly more amenable than others to industry-wide learning. For such

Anterior Overgrowth in Primary Curves, Compensatory Curves and Junctional Segments in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlösser, Tom P C; van Stralen, Marijn; Chu, Winnie C W; Lam, Tsz-Ping; Ng, Bobby K W; Vincken, Koen L; Cheng, Jack C Y; Castelein, René M

2016-01-01

Although much attention has been given to the global three-dimensional aspect of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the accurate three-dimensional morphology of the primary and compensatory curves, as well as the intervening junctional segments, in the scoliotic spine has not been described before. A unique series of 77 AIS patients with high-resolution CT scans of the spine, acquired for surgical planning purposes, were included and compared to 22 healthy controls. Non-idiopathic curves were excluded. Endplate segmentation and local longitudinal axis in endplate plane enabled semi-automatic geometric analysis of the complete three-dimensional morphology of the spine, taking inter-vertebral rotation, intra-vertebral torsion and coronal and sagittal tilt into account. Intraclass correlation coefficients for interobserver reliability were 0.98-1.00. Coronal deviation, axial rotation and the exact length discrepancies in the reconstructed sagittal plane, as defined per vertebra and disc, were analyzed for each primary and compensatory curve as well as for the junctional segments in-between. The anterior-posterior difference of spinal length, based on "true" anterior and posterior points on endplates, was +3.8% for thoracic and +9.4% for (thoraco)lumbar curves, while the junctional segments were almost straight. This differed significantly from control group thoracic kyphosis (-4.1%; P<0.001) and lumbar lordosis (+7.8%; P<0.001). For all primary as well as compensatory curves, we observed linear correlations between the coronal Cobb angle, axial rotation and the anterior-posterior length difference (r≥0.729 for thoracic curves; r≥0.485 for (thoraco)lumbar curves). Excess anterior length of the spine in AIS has been described as a generalized growth disturbance, causing relative anterior spinal overgrowth. This study is the first to demonstrate that this anterior overgrowth is not a generalized phenomenon. It is confined to the primary as well as the

Does Productivity Decline after Promotion? The Case of French Academia

OpenAIRE

Sabatier, Mareva

2012-01-01

International audience; The present research examined the effect of promotion decisions on ex-post productivity in French academia. As, once promotion decisions are known, most external incentives vanish for promoted candidates, their productivity was expected to decrease. This hypothesis was tested by using an original dataset and matching methods to evaluate the impact of promotion on publication scores. The robustness of the matching estimates was tested using sensitivity analysis. The res...

Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

2015-01-01

Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

A note on families of fragility curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.; Bier, V.M.; Bley, D.C.

1989-01-01

In the quantitative assessment of seismic risk, uncertainty in the fragility of a structural component is usually expressed by putting forth a family of fragility curves, with probability serving as the parameter of the family. Commonly, a lognormal shape is used both for the individual curves and for the expression of uncertainty over the family. A so-called composite single curve can also be drawn and used for purposes of approximation. This composite curve is often regarded as equivalent to the mean curve of the family. The equality seems intuitively reasonable, but according to the authors has never been proven. The paper presented proves this equivalence hypothesis mathematically. Moreover, the authors show that this equivalence hypothesis between fragility curves is itself equivalent to an identity property of the standard normal probability curve. Thus, in the course of proving the fragility curve hypothesis, the authors have also proved a rather obscure, but interesting and perhaps previously unrecognized, property of the standard normal curve

MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

2018-01-01

MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

Evaluating the Association between Diabetes, Cognitive Decline and Dementia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omorogieva Ojo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to review the association between diabetes mellitus, cognitive decline and dementia, including the effects of cognitive decline and dementia on self management of diabetes. This is a literature review of primary research articles. A number of contemporary research articles that met the inclusion criteria were selected for this review paper. These articles were selected using a number of search strategies and electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost Research and SwetsWise databases. The duration of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin levels and glycaemic fluctuations were associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Similarly, hypoglycaemia was significantly related to increased risk of developing cognitive decline and dementia. Furthermore, cognitive decline and dementia were associated with poorer diabetes management. There is evidence of the association between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia including the shared pathogenesis between diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the self management of diabetes is affected by dementia and cognitive decline. It could be suggested that the association between diabetes and dementia is bidirectional with the potential to proceed to a vicious cycle. Further studies are needed in order to fully establish the relationship between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia. Patients who have diabetes and dementia could benefit from structured education strategies, which should involve empowerment programmes and lifestyle changes. The detection of cognitive decline should highlight the need for education strategies.

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

Productivity Analysis of Volume Fractured Vertical Well Model in Tight Oil Reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiahang Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a semianalytical model to simulate the productivity of a volume fractured vertical well in tight oil reservoirs. In the proposed model, the reservoir is a composite system which contains two regions. The inner region is described as formation with finite conductivity hydraulic fracture network and the flow in fracture is assumed to be linear, while the outer region is simulated by the classical Warren-Root model where radial flow is applied. The transient rate is calculated, and flow patterns and characteristic flowing periods caused by volume fractured vertical well are analyzed. Combining the calculated results with actual production data at the decline stage shows a good fitting performance. Finally, the effects of some sensitive parameters on the type curves are also analyzed extensively. The results demonstrate that the effect of fracture length is more obvious than that of fracture conductivity on improving production in tight oil reservoirs. When the length and conductivity of main fracture are constant, the contribution of stimulated reservoir volume (SRV to the cumulative oil production is not obvious. When the SRV is constant, the length of fracture should also be increased so as to improve the fracture penetration and well production.

Why don\\'t our stands grow even faster? Control of production and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The decline in stem production was driven largely by a decline in canopy photosynthesis. Over time, the fraction of canopy photosynthesis partitioned to below-ground allocation increased, as did foliar respiration, further reducing wood production. The reason for the decline in photosynthesis was uncertain, but it was not ...

Reproductive health laws and fertility decline in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Finlay, Jocelyn E; Fox, Ashley M

2013-11-01

An unresolved debate in demography concerns the causal sequence between the supply of contraception and the demand for smaller families in fertility decline. Through a mixed-methods approach, we explored the effect of a sudden increase in access to legal abortion on subsequent fertility decline when Ghana's criminal code was amended in 1985. Using Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys, we constructed a panel of women aged 15-34 years and undertook a spline regression analysis to examine the effect of legal changes in 1985 and fertility decline controlling for social determinants of fertility. In addition, we conducted 17 key informant interviews (KIIs) to understand the reasons for the legal change and competing explanations for fertility decline. Multivariate results indicated that the timing of the liberalization of the abortion law coincided with the onset of Ghana's fertility decline. The KIIs indicated that the reasons for the liberalization of reproductive health laws were in response to famine and physician advocacy. While the timing of the abortion law liberalization coincided with the fertility decline in Ghana, we are unable to decouple the effect of the legal change from the effects of a severe famine that affected the region at the same time. Further research on documented and undocumented abortion in Ghana should be conducted to validate the contribution of legal abortion to fertility decline. © 2013.

Consistent Valuation across Curves Using Pricing Kernels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Macrina

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset’s cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk characteristics. The proposed framework precludes arbitrage within each market, while the definition of a curve-conversion factor process links all markets in a consistent arbitrage-free manner. A pricing formula is then derived, referred to as the across-curve pricing formula, which enables consistent valuation and hedging of financial instruments across curves (and markets. As a natural application, a consistent multi-curve framework is formulated for emerging and developed inter-bank swap markets, which highlights an important dual feature of the curve-conversion factor process. Given this multi-curve framework, existing multi-curve approaches based on HJM and rational pricing kernel models are recovered, reviewed and generalised and single-curve models extended. In another application, inflation-linked, currency-based and fixed-income hybrid securities are shown to be consistently valued using the across-curve valuation method.

Rapid Simultaneous Amplification and Detection of the MBR/JH Chromosomal Translocation by Fluorescence Melting Curve Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bohling, Sandra D.; King, Thomas C.; Wittwer, Carl T.; Elenitoba-Johnson, Kojo S. J.

1999-01-01

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and product analysis for the detection of chromosomal translocations, such as the t(14;18), has traditionally been a two-step process. PCR product detection has generally entailed gel electrophoresis and/or hybridization or sequencing for confirmation of assay specificity. Using a microvolume fluorimeter integrated with a thermal cycler and a PCR-compatible double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) binding fluorescent dye (SYBR Green I), we investigated the feasibility of simultaneous thermal amplification and detection of MBR/JH translocation products by fluorescence melting curve analysis. We analyzed DNA from 30 cases of lymphoproliferative disorders comprising 19 cases of previously documented MBR/JH-positive follicle center lymphoma and 11 reactive lymphadenopathies. The samples were coded and analyzed blindly for the presence of MBR/JH translocations by fluorescence melting curve analysis. We also performed dilutional assays using the MBR/JH-positive cell line SUDHL-6. Multiplex PCR for MBR/JH and β-globin was used to simultaneously assess sample adequacy. All (100%) of the 19 cases previously determined to be MBR/JH positive by conventional PCR analysis showed a characteristic sharp decrease in fluorescence at ∼90°C by melting curve analysis after amplification. Fluorescence melting peaks obtained by plotting the negative derivative of fluorescence over temperature (−dF/dT) versus temperature (T) showed melting temperatures (Tm) at 88.85 ± 1.15°C. In addition, multiplex assays using both MBR/JH and β-globin primers yielded easily distinguishable fluorescence melting peaks at ∼90°C and 81.2°C, respectively. Dilutional assays revealed that fluorescence melting curve analysis was more sensitive than conventional PCR and agarose gel electrophoresis with ultraviolet transillumination by as much as 100-fold. Simultaneous amplification and fluorescence melting curve analysis is a simple, reliable, and sensitive method

The estimation of I–V curves of PV panel using manufacturers’ I–V curves and evolutionary strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barukčić, M.; Hederić, Ž.; Špoljarić, Ž.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The approximation of a I–V curve by two linear and a sigmoid functions is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate the knee of the I–V curve. • Dependence on irradiance and temperature of sigmoid function parameters is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate maximum power point (MPP). - Abstract: The method for estimation of I–V curves of photovoltaic (PV) panel by analytic expression is presented in the paper. The problem is defined in the form of an optimization problem. The optimization problem objective is based on data from I–V curves obtained by manufacturers’ or measured I–V curves. In order to estimate PV panel parameters, the optimization problem is solved by using an evolutionary strategy. The proposed method is tested for different PV panel technologies using data sheets. In this method the I–V curve approximation with two linear and a sigmoid function is proposed. The method for estimating the knee of the I–V curve and maximum power point at any irradiance and temperature is proposed

Factors affecting the shape of the lactation curve in Reggiana cattle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Franceschi

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Reggiana is a local breed of cattle, reared in Northern Italy, with a low population size (916 milk recorded cows during 2001. The breed is appreciated because of milk composition characteristics for transformation, particularly for colloidal Ca and P content, rheological properties and k-CASB gene frequency (Mariani et al., 1998.Mean productive levels are 5401 kg milk, 3.51% fat, 3.38% protein (AIA, 2001. The breed is selected mainly for protein yield (kg, but literature about lactation curve is not available. Objectives of the research are to describe the lactation curve of Reggiana cattle by applying the Wood model and to evaluate some factors affecting its shape.

Dual Smarandache Curves and Smarandache Ruled Surfaces

OpenAIRE

Tanju KAHRAMAN; Mehmet ÖNDER; H. Hüseyin UGURLU

2013-01-01

In this paper, by considering dual geodesic trihedron (dual Darboux frame) we define dual Smarandache curves lying fully on dual unit sphere S^2 and corresponding to ruled surfaces. We obtain the relationships between the elements of curvature of dual spherical curve (ruled surface) x(s) and its dual Smarandache curve (Smarandache ruled surface) x1(s) and we give an example for dual Smarandache curves of a dual spherical curve.

The writhe of open and closed curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, Mitchell A; Prior, Chris

2006-01-01

Twist and writhe measure basic geometric properties of a ribbon or tube. While these measures have applications in molecular biology, materials science, fluid mechanics and astrophysics, they are under-utilized because they are often considered difficult to compute. In addition, many applications involve curves with endpoints (open curves); but for these curves the definition of writhe can be ambiguous. This paper provides simple expressions for the writhe of closed curves, and provides a new definition of writhe for open curves. The open curve definition is especially appropriate when the curve is anchored at endpoints on a plane or stretches between two parallel planes. This definition can be especially useful for magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, and for isotropic rods with ends fixed to a plane

F(α) curves: Experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glazier, J.A.; Gunaratne, G.; Libchaber, A.

1988-01-01

We study the transition to chaos at the golden and silver means for forced Rayleigh-Benard (RB) convection in mercury. We present f(α) curves below, at, and above the transition, and provide comparisons to the curves calculated for the one-dimensional circle map. We find good agreement at both the golden and silver means. This confirms our earlier observation that for low amplitude forcing, forced RB convection is well described by the one-dimensional circle map and indicates that the f(α) curve is a good measure of the approach to criticality. For selected subcritical experimental data sets we calculate the degree of subcriticality. We also present both experimental and calculated results for f(α) in the presence of a third frequency. Again we obtain agreement: The presence of random noise or a third frequency narrows the right-hand (negative q) side of the f(α) curve. Subcriticality results in symmetrically narrowed curves. We can also distinguish these cases by examining the power spectra and Poincare sections of the time series

Production Function Geometry with "Knightian" Total Product

Science.gov (United States)

Truett, Dale B.; Truett, Lila J.

2007-01-01

Authors of principles and price theory textbooks generally illustrate short-run production using a total product curve that displays first increasing and then diminishing marginal returns to employment of the variable input(s). Although it seems reasonable that a temporary range of increasing returns to variable inputs will likely occur as…

HOW TO EVALUATE SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION

OpenAIRE

Antunes, Alberto Azoubel

2015-01-01

Objective: To conduct a critical analysis of the two main bibliometric indexes used by science: the impact factor and the H index. Method: Research was conducted on PubMed using the keywords: impact factor, Bibliometrics and H index. Results: The citations of articles tend to follow a curve in which the articles published in a given year increase sharply to a peak occurring between two and six years after its publication. From this peak citations decline over time. Conclusion: The analysis...

Dissolution glow curve in LLD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haverkamp, U.; Wiezorek, C.; Poetter, R.

1990-01-01

Lyoluminescence dosimetry is based upon light emission during dissolution of previously irradiated dosimetric materials. The lyoluminescence signal is expressed in the dissolution glow curve. These curves begin, depending on the dissolution system, with a high peak followed by an exponentially decreasing intensity. System parameters that influence the graph of the dissolution glow curve, are, for example, injection speed, temperature and pH value of the solution and the design of the dissolution cell. The initial peak does not significantly correlate with the absorbed dose, it is mainly an effect of the injection. The decay of the curve consists of two exponential components: one fast and one slow. The components depend on the absorbed dose and the dosimetric materials used. In particular, the slow component correlates with the absorbed dose. In contrast to the fast component the argument of the exponential function of the slow component is independent of the dosimetric materials investigated: trehalose, glucose and mannitol. The maximum value, following the peak of the curve, and the integral light output are a measure of the absorbed dose. The reason for the different light outputs of various dosimetric materials after irradiation with the same dose is the differing solubility. The character of the dissolution glow curves is the same following irradiation with photons, electrons or neutrons. (author)

Measurement of temporal regional cerebral perfusion with single-photon emission tomography predicts rate of decline in language function and survival in early Alzheimer's disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claus, J.J.; Walstra, G.J.M.; Hijdra, A.; Gool, W.A. van; Royen, E.A. van; Verbeeten, B. Jr.

1999-01-01

We determined the relationship between regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) measured with single-photon emission tomography (SPET) and decline in cognitive function and survival in Alzheimer's disease. In a prospective follow-up study, 69 consecutively referred patients with early probable Alzheimer's disease (NINCDS/ADRDA criteria) underwent SPET performed at the time of initial diagnosis using technetium-99m-labelled hexamethylpropylene amine oxime. Neuropsychological function was assessed at baseline and after 6 months and survival data were available on all patients, extending to 5.5 years of follow-up. Lower left temporal (P<0.01) and lower left parietal (P<0.01) rCBF were statistically significantly related to decline in language function after 6 months. The association between left temporal rCBF and survival was also statistically significant (P<0.05) using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Performing analysis with quartiles of the distribution, we found a threshold effect for low left temporal rCBF (rCBF<73.7%, P<0.01) and high risk of mortality. In this lowest quartile, median survival time was 2.7 years (follow-up to 5.2 years), compared with 4.4 years in the other quartiles (follow-up to 5.5 years). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed statistically significant (P<0.05, log rank test) survival curves for the lowest versus other quartiles of left temporal rCBF. All results were unaffected by adjustment for age, sex, dementia severity, duration of symptoms, education and ratings of local cortical atrophy. We conclude that left temporal rCBF predicts decline in language function and survival in patients with early probable Alzheimer's disease, with a threshold effect of low rCBF and high risk of mortality. (orig.)

Development of the curve of Spee.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Steven D; Caspersen, Matthew; Hardinger, Rachel R; Franciscus, Robert G; Aquilino, Steven A; Southard, Thomas E

2008-09-01

Ferdinand Graf von Spee is credited with characterizing human occlusal curvature viewed in the sagittal plane. This naturally occurring phenomenon has clinical importance in orthodontics and restorative dentistry, yet we have little understanding of when, how, or why it develops. The purpose of this study was to expand our understanding by examining the development of the curve of Spee longitudinally in a sample of untreated subjects with normal occlusion from the deciduous dentition to adulthood. Records of 16 male and 17 female subjects from the Iowa Facial Growth Study were selected and examined. The depth of the curve of Spee was measured on their study models at 7 time points from ages 4 (deciduous dentition) to 26 (adult dentition) years. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare changes in the curve of Spee depth between time points. For each subject, the relative eruption of the mandibular teeth was measured from corresponding cephalometric radiographs, and its contribution to the developing curve of Spee was ascertained. In the deciduous dentition, the curve of Spee is minimal. At mean ages of 4.05 and 5.27 years, the average curve of Spee depths are 0.24 and 0.25 mm, respectively. With change to the transitional dentition, corresponding to the eruption of the mandibular permanent first molars and central incisors (mean age, 6.91 years), the curve of Spee depth increases significantly (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 1.32 mm. The curve of Spee then remains essentially unchanged until eruption of the second molars (mean age, 12.38 years), when the depth increases (P < 0.0001) to a mean maximum depth of 2.17 mm. In the adolescent dentition (mean age, 16.21 years), the depth decreases slightly (P = 0.0009) to a mean maximum depth of 1.98 mm, and, in the adult dentition (mean age 26.98 years), the curve remains unchanged (P = 0.66), with a mean maximum depth of 2.02 mm. No significant differences in curve of Spee development were found between

GLOBAL AND STRICT CURVE FITTING METHOD

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nakajima, Y.; Mori, S.

2004-01-01

To find a global and smooth curve fitting, cubic B­Spline method and gathering­ line methods are investigated. When segmenting and recognizing a contour curve of character shape, some global method is required. If we want to connect contour curves around a singular point like crossing points,

Simulating Supernova Light Curves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Even, Wesley Paul [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dolence, Joshua C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-05

This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth’s atmosphere.

Simulating Supernova Light Curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Even, Wesley Paul; Dolence, Joshua C.

2016-01-01

This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth's atmosphere.

Measurements of carbon dioxide production rates in the rumen of buffalo-calves fed on two levels of crude proteins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varma, A.; Verma, D.N.; Singh, U.B.; Ranjhan, S.K.; Agarwal, Ranjana

1974-01-01

The production rates of carbon dioxide in the rumen of buffalo calves have been measured by single injection isotope dilution technique. One group of calves received 11 percent less proteins and the other 20 percent more than that recommended by the NRC. About 258 Ci of NaH 1 CO 3 was injected in a single dose into the rumen through a cannula and mixed manually with the rumen contents. Samples of the rumen liquor were drawn for 560 min and were analysed for the specifiradioactivity of carbon dioxide. The decline in the specific radioactivity as a function of time was fitted to an equation. The dilution curves were described by a sum of 2 exponential components. Mathematical equations were used to estimate the total CO 2 entry rates in the rumen. There was a wide individual variation in the production rates of CO 2 between the individual animals. The production rates were not satistically significant between the two groups. (author)

Conventional natural gas resources of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, B.

1999-01-01

The use of decline curve analysis to analyse and extrapolate the production performance of oil and gas reservoirs was discussed. This mathematical analytical tool has been a valid method for estimating the conventional crude oil resources of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). However, it has failed to provide a generally acceptable estimate of the conventional natural gas resources of the WCSB. This paper proposes solutions to this problem and provides an estimate of the conventional natural gas resources of the basin by statistical analysis of the declining finding rates. Although in the past, decline curve analysis did not reflect the declining finding rates of natural gas in the WCSB, the basin is now sufficiently developed that estimates of conventional natural gas resources can be made by this analytical tool. However, the analysis must take into account the acceleration of natural gas development drilling that has occurred over the lifetime of the basin. It was concluded that ultimate resources of conventional marketable natural gas of the WCSB estimated by decline analysis amount to 230 tcf. It was suggested that further research be done to explain why the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) estimate for Alberta differs from the decline curve analysis method. 6 refs., 35 figs

Green tax reform, marginal revenue of wage income taxes, and the wage curve. A brief note

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziesemer, T.

2002-01-01

It has been shown elsewhere (Schneider, 1997) that the success of a green tax reform depends crucially on a small slope of the wage curve of an efficiency wage model in which production occurs using a second factor E, energy or emissions. Also elsewhere (Scholz, 1998) it was revealed that there is a second necessary condition that the marginal revenue of the wage income tax is negative. In this note we show that (1) these two conditions are not independent, but rather depend both on the slope of the wage curve; and (2) if Schneider's condition of a sufficiently flat wage curve is fulfilled, marginal revenue of wage income taxes must be negative. By implication, both the green tax reform and the sign of the marginal revenue of wage income taxes depend on the slope of the wage curve which allows to distinguish three cases of a tax reform: (a) a double dividend for a very small slope of the wage curve (Schneider's case); (b) failure of unemployment reduction (Scholz' case) for a very steep wage curve; (c) failure of emission reduction for an intermediate case of a wage curve slope

US Historic Declination Calculator

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This programs derives a table of secular change in magnetic declination for a specified point in the conterminous United States. It utilizes the USD polynomial and...

Supplementary Material for: Growth curve registration for evaluating salinity tolerance in barley

KAUST Repository

Meng, Rui

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Smarthouses capable of non-destructive, high-throughput plant phenotyping collect large amounts of data that can be used to understand plant growth and productivity in extreme environments. The challenge is to apply the statistical tool that best analyzes the data to study plant traits, such as salinity tolerance, or plant-growth-related traits. Results We derive family-wise salinity sensitivity (FSS) growth curves and use registration techniques to summarize growth patterns of HEB-25 barley families and the commercial variety, Navigator. We account for the spatial variation in smarthouse microclimates and in temporal variation across phenotyping runs using a functional ANOVA model to derive corrected FSS curves. From FSS, we derive corrected values for family-wise salinity tolerance, which are strongly negatively correlated with Na but not significantly with K, indicating that Na content is an important factor affecting salinity tolerance in these families, at least for plants of this age and grown in these conditions. Conclusions Our family-wise methodology is suitable for analyzing the growth curves of a large number of plants from multiple families. The corrected curves accurately account for the spatial and temporal variations among plants that are inherent to high-throughput experiments.

Exponential rarefaction of real curves with many components

OpenAIRE

Gayet , Damien; Welschinger , Jean-Yves

2011-01-01

21 pages; Given a positive real Hermitian holomorphic line bundle L over a smooth real projective manifold X, the space of real holomorphic sections of the bundle L^d inherits for every positive integer d a L^2 scalar product which induces a Gaussian measure. When X is a curve or a surface, we estimate the volume of the cone of real sections whose vanishing locus contains many real components. In particular, the volume of the cone of maximal real sections decreases exponentially as d grows to...

Predictive value of modeled AUC(AFP-hCG), a dynamic kinetic parameter characterizing serum tumor marker decline in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumor.

Science.gov (United States)

You, Benoit; Fronton, Ludivine; Boyle, Helen; Droz, Jean-Pierre; Girard, Pascal; Tranchand, Brigitte; Ribba, Benjamin; Tod, Michel; Chabaud, Sylvie; Coquelin, Henri; Fléchon, Aude

2010-08-01

The early decline profile of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) in patients with nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) treated with chemotherapy may be related to the risk of relapse. We assessed the predictive values of areas under the curve of hCG (AUC(hCG)) and AFP (AUC(AFP)) of modeled concentration-time equations on progression-free survival (PFS). Single-center retrospective analysis of hCG and AFP time-points from 65 patients with IGCCCG intermediate-poor risk NSGCT treated with 4 cycles of bleomycin-etoposide-cisplatin (BEP). To determine AUC(hCG) and AUC(AFP) for D0-D42, AUCs for D0-D7 were calculated using the trapezoid rule and AUCs for D7-D42 were calculated using the mathematic integrals of equations modeled with NONMEM. Combining AUC(AFP) and AUC(hCG) enabled us to define 2 predictive groups: namely, patients with favorable and unfavorable AUC(AFP-hCG). Survival analyses and ROC curves assessed the predictive values of AUC(AFP-hCG) groups regarding progression-free survival (PFS) and compared them with those of half-life (HL) and time-to-normalization (TTN). Mono-exponential models best fit the patterns of marker decreases. Patients with a favorable AUC(AFP-hCG) had a significantly better PFS (100% vs 71.5%, P = .014). ROC curves confirmed the encouraging predictive accuracy of AUC(AFP-hCG) against HL or TTN regarding progression risk (ROC AUCs = 79.6 vs 71.9 and 70.2 respectively). Because of the large number of patients with missing data, multivariate analysis could not be performed. AUC(AFP-hCG) is a dynamic parameter characterizing tumor marker decline in patients with NSGCT during BEP treatment. Its value as a promising predictive factor should be validated. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

1978-10-01

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

Anthropogenically-Mediated Density Dependence in a Declining Farmland Bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny C Dunn

Full Text Available Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats, high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity, nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success.

Prevention of cognitive decline: Lifestyle and other issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cyriac George

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Ageing often leads to decline in cognitive abilities. Significant cognitive impairment leads to functional impairment and need for care. Prevention of cognitive decline and delaying its progression would help to reduce the need for long-term care. Both genetic and environmental factors are important determinants of cognitive health in late life. A better cognitive reserve helps to prevent cognitive decline. Cognitive reserve is now considered as a functional reserve rather than a structural reserve. Cognitive reserve can be enhanced through experience. People with higher level of education tend to have higher cognitive reserve. Better cognitive reserve can act as a buffer. Engagement in cognitively stimulating activities may prevent cognitive decline in late life. Physical exercise also improves cognitive health. Aerobic exercises, which improve cardiorespiratory fitness, improve cognitive functions like motor functions, cognitive speed, and auditory and visual attention. Beneficial effects on executive functions are also reported. Healthy diet, especially adherence to Mediterranean diet (MeDi, is considered to be useful in preserving cognitive health. Engagement in social activities might also reduce cognitive decline. Encouraging adherence to a healthy lifestyle and continuing to be physically, socially, and cognitively active seems to be a promising strategy to prevent cognitive decline.

Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Tour, Arnaud de; Glachant, Matthieu; Ménière, Yann

2013-01-01

Except in few locations, photovoltaic generated electricity remains considerably more expensive than conventional sources. It is however expected that innovation and learning-by-doing will lead to drastic cuts in production cost in the near future. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of PV modules out to 2020 using experience curve models, and to draw implications about the cost of PV electricity. Using annual data on photovoltaic module prices, cumulative production, R and D knowledge stock and input prices for silicon and silver over the period 1990–2011, we identify a experience curve model which minimizes the difference between predicted and actual module prices. This model predicts a 67% decrease of module price from 2011 to 2020. This rate implies that the cost of PV generated electricity will reach that of conventional electricity by 2020 in the sunniest countries with annual solar irradiation of 2000 kWh/year or more, such as California, Italy, and Spain. - Highlights: • We predict the cost of PV modules out to 2020 using experience curve models. • The model predicts a 67% decrease of module price from 2011 to 2020. • We draw implications about the cost of PV electricity

Trigonometric Characterization of Some Plane Curves

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

IAS Admin

(Figure 1). A relation between tan θ and tanψ gives the trigonometric equation of the family of curves. In this article, trigonometric equations of some known plane curves are deduced and it is shown that these equations reveal some geometric characteristics of the families of the curves under consideration. In Section 2,.

SN 2013ej IN M74: A LUMINOUS AND FAST-DECLINING TYPE II-P SUPERNOVA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Fang; Wang, Xiaofeng; Chen, Juncheng; Mo, Jun; Zhao, Xulin; Zhang, Jujia; Brown, Peter J.; Zampieri, Luca; Pumo, Maria Letizia; Zhang, Tianmeng

2015-01-01

We present extensive ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared observations of the Type IIP supernova (SN IIP) 2013ej in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The multicolor light curves, spanning from ∼8–185 days after explosion, show that it has a higher peak luminosity (i.e., M V ∼ −17.83 mag at maximum light), a faster post-peak decline, and a shorter plateau phase (i.e., ∼50 days) compared to the normal Type IIP SN 1999em. The mass of 56 Ni is estimated as 0.02 ± 0.01 M ⊙ from the radioactive tail of the bolometric light curve. The spectral evolution of SN 2013ej is similar to that of SN 2004et and SN 2007od, but shows a larger expansion velocity (i.e., v Fe ii  ∼ 4600 km s −1 at t ∼ 50 days) and broader line profiles. In the nebular phase, the emission of the Hα line displays a double-peak structure, perhaps due to the asymmetric distribution of 56 Ni produced in the explosion. With the constraints from the main observables such as bolometric light curve, expansion velocity, and photospheric temperature of SN 2013ej, we performed hydrodynamical simulations of the explosion parameters, yielding the total explosion energy as ∼0.7× 10 51 erg, the radius of the progenitor as ∼600 R ⊙ , and the ejected mass as ∼10.6 M ⊙ . These results suggest that SN 2013ej likely arose from a red supergiant with a mass of 12–13 M ⊙ immediately before the explosion

Does timing of breeding matter less where the grass is greener? Seasonal declines in breeding performance differ between regions in an endangered endemic raptor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Sophie Garcia-Heras

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The timing of breeding can strongly influence individual breeding performance and fitness. Seasonal declines in breeding parameters have been often documented in birds, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Fewer studies have investigated whether seasonal declines in productivity vary in space, which would have implications for a species’ population dynamics across its distributional range. We report here on variation in the timing of breeding in the Black Harrier (Circus maurus, an endangered and endemic raptor to Southern Africa. We investigated how key breeding parameters (clutch size, nesting success and productivity varied with the timing of breeding, weather conditions (rainfall and temperature and between contrasted regions (coastal vs. interior-mountain. Black Harrier onset of breeding extended over an 8-month period, with a peak of laying between mid-August and end of September. We show a marked seasonal decline in all breeding parameters. Importantly, for clutch size and productivity these seasonal declines differed regionally, being more pronounced in interior-mountain than in coastal regions, where the breeding season was overall shorter. Timing of breeding, clutch size and productivity were also partly explained by weather conditions. In coastal regions, where environmental conditions, in particular rainfall, appear to be less variable, the timing of breeding matters less for breeding output than in interior-mountain regions, and breeding attempts thus occurred over a longer period. The former areas may act as population sources and be key in protecting the long-term population viability of this threatened endemic raptor. This study provides unique evidence for a regionally variable seasonal decline in breeding performance with implications for population biology and conservation.

Aspherical Supernovae: Effects on Early Light Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Afsariardchi, Niloufar; Matzner, Christopher D.

2018-04-01

Early light from core-collapse supernovae, now detectable in high-cadence surveys, holds clues to a star and its environment just before it explodes. However, effects that alter the early light have not been fully explored. We highlight the possibility of nonradial flows at the time of shock breakout. These develop in sufficiently nonspherical explosions if the progenitor is not too diffuse. When they do develop, nonradial flows limit ejecta speeds and cause ejecta–ejecta collisions. We explore these phenomena and their observational implications using global, axisymmetric, nonrelativistic FLASH simulations of simplified polytropic progenitors, which we scale to representative stars. We develop a method to track photon production within the ejecta, enabling us to estimate band-dependent light curves from adiabatic simulations. Immediate breakout emission becomes hidden as an oblique flow develops. Nonspherical effects lead the shock-heated ejecta to release a more constant luminosity at a higher, evolving color temperature at early times, effectively mixing breakout light with the early light curve. Collisions between nonradial ejecta thermalize a small fraction of the explosion energy; we will address emission from these collisions in a subsequent paper.

Considerations for reference pump curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockton, N.B.

1992-01-01

This paper examines problems associated with inservice testing (IST) of pumps to assess their hydraulic performance using reference pump curves to establish acceptance criteria. Safety-related pumps at nuclear power plants are tested under the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (the Code), Section 11. The Code requires testing pumps at specific reference points of differential pressure or flow rate that can be readily duplicated during subsequent tests. There are many cases where test conditions cannot be duplicated. For some pumps, such as service water or component cooling pumps, the flow rate at any time depends on plant conditions and the arrangement of multiple independent and constantly changing loads. System conditions cannot be controlled to duplicate a specific reference value. In these cases, utilities frequently request to use pump curves for comparison of test data for acceptance. There is no prescribed method for developing a pump reference curve. The methods vary and may yield substantially different results. Some results are conservative when compared to the Code requirements; some are not. The errors associated with different curve testing techniques should be understood and controlled within reasonable bounds. Manufacturer's pump curves, in general, are not sufficiently accurate to use as reference pump curves for IST. Testing using reference curves generated with polynomial least squares fits over limited ranges of pump operation, cubic spline interpolation, or cubic spline least squares fits can provide a measure of pump hydraulic performance that is at least as accurate as the Code required method. Regardless of the test method, error can be reduced by using more accurate instruments, by correcting for systematic errors, by increasing the number of data points, and by taking repetitive measurements at each data point

FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Siriram

2012-01-01

Full Text Available

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

Optimization of ISOL targets based on Monte-Carlo simulations of ion release curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mustapha, B.; Nolen, J.A.

2003-01-01

A detailed model for simulating release curves from ISOL targets has been developed. The full 3D geometry is implemented using Geant-4. Produced particles are followed individually from production to release. The delay time is computed event by event. All processes involved: diffusion, effusion and decay are included to obtain the overall release curve. By fitting to the experimental data, important parameters of the release process (diffusion coefficient, sticking time, ...) are extracted. They can be used to improve the efficiency of existing targets and design new ones more suitable to produce beams of rare isotopes

Optimization of ISOL targets based on Monte-Carlo simulations of ion release curves

CERN Document Server

Mustapha, B

2003-01-01

A detailed model for simulating release curves from ISOL targets has been developed. The full 3D geometry is implemented using Geant-4. Produced particles are followed individually from production to release. The delay time is computed event by event. All processes involved: diffusion, effusion and decay are included to obtain the overall release curve. By fitting to the experimental data, important parameters of the release process (diffusion coefficient, sticking time, ...) are extracted. They can be used to improve the efficiency of existing targets and design new ones more suitable to produce beams of rare isotopes.

Computational aspects of algebraic curves

CERN Document Server

Shaska, Tanush

2005-01-01

The development of new computational techniques and better computing power has made it possible to attack some classical problems of algebraic geometry. The main goal of this book is to highlight such computational techniques related to algebraic curves. The area of research in algebraic curves is receiving more interest not only from the mathematics community, but also from engineers and computer scientists, because of the importance of algebraic curves in applications including cryptography, coding theory, error-correcting codes, digital imaging, computer vision, and many more.This book cove

The decline of hysterectomy for benign disease.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Horgan, R P

2012-01-31

Hysterectomy is one of the most common gynaecological surgical procedures performed but there appears to be a decline in the performance of this procedure in Ireland in recent times. We set out to establish the extent of the decline of hysterectomy and to explore possible explanations. Data for hysterectomy for benign disease from Ireland was obtained from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry Scheme (HIPE) section of the Economic and Social Research Institute for the years 1999 to 2006. The total number of hysterectomies performed for benign disease showed a consistent decline during this time. There was a 36% reduction in the number of abdominal hysterectomy procedures performed.

Ophiostomatoid fungi associated with declined Pinus pinaster stands in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalo Álvarez

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: We studied the presence of fungi and distribution patterns in relation to the health status of declining Pinus pinaster trees. Area of study: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes. Material and Methods: Trees in two declining stands in Central Spain were allotted to three declining classes (healthy, declining and recently dead and 3 trees of each class were felled in each stand. Wood slides (phloem and xylem were taken at six positions along the trees and samples collected from fungal identification. Main results: A total of 21 fungal taxa were isolated and identified; eleven of these species belonged to the Ophiostomatoid group. Ophiostoma minus was the most frequently isolated fungus and was identified in 22% of the samples, mainly associated to dead and diseased trees. Research highlights: Together these results suggest a putative association of O. minor with the decline in this area, and thus we suggest paying more attention to this fungus as a potential agent of decline in P. pinaster stands.

Learning curves in health professions education.

Science.gov (United States)

Pusic, Martin V; Boutis, Kathy; Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A

2015-08-01

Learning curves, which graphically show the relationship between learning effort and achievement, are common in published education research but are not often used in day-to-day educational activities. The purpose of this article is to describe the generation and analysis of learning curves and their applicability to health professions education. The authors argue that the time is right for a closer look at using learning curves-given their desirable properties-to inform both self-directed instruction by individuals and education management by instructors.A typical learning curve is made up of a measure of learning (y-axis), a measure of effort (x-axis), and a mathematical linking function. At the individual level, learning curves make manifest a single person's progress towards competence including his/her rate of learning, the inflection point where learning becomes more effortful, and the remaining distance to mastery attainment. At the group level, overlaid learning curves show the full variation of a group of learners' paths through a given learning domain. Specifically, they make overt the difference between time-based and competency-based approaches to instruction. Additionally, instructors can use learning curve information to more accurately target educational resources to those who most require them.The learning curve approach requires a fine-grained collection of data that will not be possible in all educational settings; however, the increased use of an assessment paradigm that explicitly includes effort and its link to individual achievement could result in increased learner engagement and more effective instructional design.

Mannheim Curves in Nonflat 3-Dimensional Space Forms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjing Zhao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We consider the Mannheim curves in nonflat 3-dimensional space forms (Riemannian or Lorentzian and we give the concept of Mannheim curves. In addition, we investigate the properties of nonnull Mannheim curves and their partner curves. We come to the conclusion that a necessary and sufficient condition is that a linear relationship with constant coefficients will exist between the curvature and the torsion of the given original curves. In the case of null curve, we reveal that there are no null Mannheim curves in the 3-dimensional de Sitter space.

String Sigma Models on Curved Supermanifolds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Catenacci

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We use the techniques of integral forms to analyze the easiest example of two-dimensional sigma models on a supermanifold. We write the action as an integral of a top integral form over a D = 2 supermanifold, and we show how to interpolate between different superspace actions. Then, we consider curved supermanifolds, and we show that the definitions used for flat supermanifolds can also be used for curved supermanifolds. We prove it by first considering the case of a curved rigid supermanifold and then the case of a generic curved supermanifold described by a single superfield E.

Measurement of temporal regional cerebral perfusion with single-photon emission tomography predicts rate of decline in language function and survival in early Alzheimer`s disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Claus, J.J.; Walstra, G.J.M.; Hijdra, A.; Gool, W.A. van [Department of Neurology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Royen, E.A. van [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Verbeeten, B. Jr. [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1999-03-01

We determined the relationship between regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) measured with single-photon emission tomography (SPET) and decline in cognitive function and survival in Alzheimer`s disease. In a prospective follow-up study, 69 consecutively referred patients with early probable Alzheimer`s disease (NINCDS/ADRDA criteria) underwent SPET performed at the time of initial diagnosis using technetium-99m-labelled hexamethylpropylene amine oxime. Neuropsychological function was assessed at baseline and after 6 months and survival data were available on all patients, extending to 5.5 years of follow-up. Lower left temporal (P<0.01) and lower left parietal (P<0.01) rCBF were statistically significantly related to decline in language function after 6 months. The association between left temporal rCBF and survival was also statistically significant (P<0.05) using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Performing analysis with quartiles of the distribution, we found a threshold effect for low left temporal rCBF (rCBF<73.7%, P<0.01) and high risk of mortality. In this lowest quartile, median survival time was 2.7 years (follow-up to 5.2 years), compared with 4.4 years in the other quartiles (follow-up to 5.5 years). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed statistically significant (P<0.05, log rank test) survival curves for the lowest versus other quartiles of left temporal rCBF. All results were unaffected by adjustment for age, sex, dementia severity, duration of symptoms, education and ratings of local cortical atrophy. We conclude that left temporal rCBF predicts decline in language function and survival in patients with early probable Alzheimer`s disease, with a threshold effect of low rCBF and high risk of mortality. (orig.) With 3 figs., 3 tabs., 44 refs.

FORECASTING THE PERFORMANCE OF AN OIL FIELD, COMPARISON OF VARIOUS USED METHODS: THE CASE OF SHUANGHE OILFIELD, CHINA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theoneste Nzayisenga

2014-01-01

Full Text Available While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought affluence and power to different societies. Energy produced from oil is fundamental to all parts of society. In the foreseeable future, the majority of energy will still come from oil production. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting that production are crucial. Petroleum engineers have searched for simple but reliable way to predict oil production for a long time. Many methods have been developed in the latest decades and one common practice is decline curve analysis. Prediction of future production of petroleum wells is important for cost-effective operations of the petroleum industry. This work presents a comparative analysis of methods used to predict the performance of Shuanghe oilfield, China. Using decline curve analysis including three different methods: Arps empirical methods, LL-model and simplified model and the new simplified model, LL-Model, to crosscheck Arps exponential decline model prediction results. The results showed by the comparative analysis of predictions calculated proved LL-model to be the best predictor for Shuanghe oilfield since it takes into account more parameters than the old models used in this work. However, the subsurface information or parameters of the reservoir used in LL-model may not be available every time, therefore Arps models may apply as defined. In Shuanghe oilfield calculated average geological reserves N was estimated at 9449.41 ×104 tons, the average recoverable reserves NR were estimated to 4274.61×104 tons while the water cut was 97% and the water cut predicted by LL-model was 96.7%; not far from water flooding curves value. The exponential decline model showed recoverable reserves NR estimated around 4685.88×104 tons of oil while the decline phase of total development was estimated around 34 years which means that if the actual production conditions remain unchanged, Shuanghe oilfield would continue producing for

Shedding Light on the Controversy Surrounding the Temporal Decline in Human Sperm Counts: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcello Cocuzza

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We systematically examined the evidence of declining sperm counts and the hypothesis that an increased exposure to environmental pollutants is responsible for such decline. Search engines, including PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library, were used to identify epidemiologic studies published from 1985 to 2013. We concluded that there is no enough evidence to confirm a worldwide decline in sperm counts. Also, there seems to be no scientific truth of a causative role for endocrine disruptors in the temporal decline of sperm production. Such assumptions are based on few meta-analyses and retrospective studies, while other well-conducted researches could not confirm these findings. We acknowledge that difficult-to-control confounding factors in the highly variable nature of semen, selection criteria, and comparability of populations from different time periods in secular-trend studies, the quality of laboratory methods for counting sperm, and apparently geographic variations in semen quality are the main issues that complicate the interpretation of the available evidence. Owing to the importance of this subject and the uncertainties still prevailing, there is a need not only for continuing monitoring of semen quality, reproductive hormones, and xenobiotics, but also for a better definition of fecundity.

Power Curve Measurements FGW

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Georgieva Yankova, Ginka; Federici, Paolo

This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2.......This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2....

An Alternative to Wave Mechanics on Curved Spaces

CERN Document Server

Tomaschitz, R

1992-01-01

Geodesic motion in infinite spaces of constant negative curvature provides for the first time an example where a basically quantum mechanical quantity, a ground-state energy, is derived from Newtonian mechanics in a rigorous, non-semiclassical way. The ground state energy emerges as the Hausdorff dimension of a quasi-self-similar curve at infinity of three-dimensional hyperbolic space H in which our manifolds are embedded and where their universal covers are realized. This curve is just the locus of the limit set L(G) of the Kleinian group G of covering transformations, which determines the bounded trajectories in the manifold; all of them lie in the quotient C(L)/G, C(L) being the hyperbolic convex hull of L(G). The three-dimensional hyperbolic manifolds we construct can be visualized as thickened surfaces, topological products I x S, I a finite open interval, the fibers S compact Riemann surfaces. We give a short derivation of the Patterson formula connecting the ground-state energy with the Hausdorff dimen...

Construction of calibration curve for accountancy tank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Takayuki; Goto, Yoshiki; Nidaira, Kazuo

2009-01-01

Tanks are equipped in a reprocessing plant for accounting solution of nuclear material. The careful measurement of volume in tanks is very important to implement rigorous accounting of nuclear material. The calibration curve relating the volume and level of solution needs to be constructed, where the level is determined by differential pressure of dip tubes. Several calibration curves are usually employed, but it's not explicitly decided how many segment are used, where to select segment, or what should be the degree of polynomial curve. These parameters, i.e., segment and degree of polynomial curve are mutually interrelated to give the better performance of calibration curve. Here we present the construction technique of giving optimum calibration curves and their characteristics. (author)

Product variety and the demographic transition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

2010-01-01

Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption.......Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

Product Variety and the Demographic Transition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guzmán, Ricardo Andrés; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption.......Why does the rate of population growth decline in the face of economic growth? We show that growing product variety may induce a permanent reduction in the demand for children and a continuous rise in income and consumption....

51Cr - erythrocyte survival curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paiva Costa, J. de.

1982-07-01

Sixteen patients were studied, being fifteen patients in hemolytic state, and a normal individual as a witness. The aim was to obtain better techniques for the analysis of the erythrocytes, survival curves, according to the recommendations of the International Committee of Hematology. It was used the radiochromatic method as a tracer. Previously a revisional study of the International Literature was made in its aspects inherent to the work in execution, rendering possible to establish comparisons and clarify phonomena observed in cur investigation. Several parameters were considered in this study, hindering both the exponential and the linear curves. The analysis of the survival curves of the erythrocytes in the studied group, revealed that the elution factor did not present a homogeneous answer quantitatively to all, though, the result of the analysis of these curves have been established, through listed programs in the electronic calculator. (Author) [pt

Virginia oil and gas production, exploration and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, M.

1990-01-01

This paper reports that although production and drilling declined in Virginia in 1989, there were interesting projects that should impact Virginal's future oil and gas potential. In Dickenson County, Equitable Resources (EREX) began development on two areas of coalbed methane and extended the limits of the Nora Coalbed Methane Field with an exploratory well. In Westmoreland County, Texaco drilled a deep test well in the Taylorsville Basin. While a depressed market caused a decline in natural gas production of four percent, there was significant new production from ten coalbed methane wells in Dickenson County. The coalbed methane wells produced 181,526 Mcf or over one percent of the total production in the state. The 1989 total of 17,935,376 Mcf produced from 752 wells was a four percent decline from the 1988 figure of 18,682,350 Mcf from 728 wells

‘‘Blind'' mapping of genic DNA sequence polymorphisms in Lolium perenne L. by high resolution melting curve analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Studer, Bruno; Jensen, Louise Bach; Fiil, Alice

2009-01-01

High resolution melting curve analysis (HRM) measures dissociation of double stranded DNA of a PCR product amplified in the presence of a saturating fluorescence dye. Recently, HRM proved successful to genotype DNA sequence polymorphisms such as SSRs and SNPs based on the shape of the melting...... curves. In this study, HRM was used for simultaneous screening and genotyping of genic DNA sequence polymorphisms identified in the Lolium perenne F2 mapping population VrnA. Melting profiles of PCR products amplified from previously published gene loci and from a novel gene putatively involved...

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities

Science.gov (United States)

Worthington, Thomas A.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Mueller, Julia

2014-01-01

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375–780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

Thinner cortex in patients with subjective cognitive decline is associated with steeper decline of memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Verfaillie, Sander C J; Slot, Rosalinde E; Tijms, Betty M; Bouwman, Femke; Benedictus, Marije R; Overbeek, Jozefien M; Koene, Teddy; Vrenken, Hugo; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; van der Flier, Wiesje M

2018-01-01

We aimed to investigate associations between regional cortical thickness and rate of decline over time in 4 cognitive domains in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD). We included 233 SCD patients with the total number of 654 neuropsychological assessments (median = 3, range = 2-8) and available baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (125 males, age: 63 ± 9, Mini-Mental State Examination score: 28 ± 2). We assessed longitudinal cognitive functioning at baseline and follow-up in 4 cognitive domains (composite Z-scores): memory, attention, executive function, and language. Thickness (millimeter) was estimated using FreeSurfer for frontal, temporal, parietal, cingulate, and occipital cortices. We used linear mixed models to estimate effects of cortical thickness on cognitive performance (dependent variables). There were no associations between cortical thickness and baseline cognition, but a faster subsequent rate of memory loss was associated with thinner cortex of the frontal [β (SE) = 0.20 (0.07)], temporal [β (SE) = 0.18 (0.07)], and occipital [β (SE) = 0.22 (0.09)] cortices (all p cognitive decline related to neurodegenerative diseases, most prominently Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bernstein, D.J.; Lange, T.

2014-01-01

This paper introduces ‘hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography’, in which a single high-security group supports fast genus-2-hyperelliptic-curve formulas for variable-base-point single-scalar multiplication (for example, Diffie–Hellman shared-secret computation) and at the same time supports fast

Power Curve Measurements REWS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gómez Arranz, Paula; Vesth, Allan

This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here, the refere......This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here......, the reference wind speed used in the power curve is the equivalent wind speed obtained from lidar measurements at several heights between lower and upper blade tip, in combination with a hub height meteorological mast. The measurements have been performed using DTU’s measurement equipment, the analysis...

Geometric invariant theory for polarized curves

CERN Document Server

Bini, Gilberto; Melo, Margarida; Viviani, Filippo

2014-01-01

We investigate GIT quotients of polarized curves. More specifically, we study the GIT problem for the Hilbert and Chow schemes of curves of degree d and genus g in a projective space of dimension d-g, as d decreases with respect to g. We prove that the first three values of d at which the GIT quotients change are given by d=a(2g-2) where a=2, 3.5, 4. We show that, for a>4, L. Caporaso's results hold true for both Hilbert and Chow semistability. If 3.5curves. If 2curves. We also analyze in detail the critical values a=3.5 and a=4, where the Hilbert semistable locus is strictly smaller than the Chow semistable locus. As an application, we obtain three compactications of the universal Jacobian over the moduli space of stable curves, weakly-pseudo-stable curves and pseu...

Curved electromagnetic missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, J.M.; Shen, H.M.; Wu, T.T.

1989-01-01

Transient electromagnetic fields can exhibit interesting behavior in the limit of great distances from their sources. In situations of finite total radiated energy, the energy reaching a distant receiver can decrease with distance much more slowly than the usual r - 2 . Cases of such slow decrease have been referred to as electromagnetic missiles. All of the wide variety of known missiles propagate in essentially straight lines. A sketch is presented here of a missile that can follow a path that is strongly curved. An example of a curved electromagnetic missile is explicitly constructed and some of its properties are discussed. References to details available elsewhere are given

Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large-scale biomass use on a country level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornburg, Veronika; Dam, Jinke van; Faaij, Andre

2007-01-01

This study evaluates the possible influences of a large-scale introduction of biomass material and energy systems and their market volumes on land, material and energy market prices and their feedback to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation costs. GHG emission mitigation supply curves for large-scale biomass use were compiled using a methodology that combines a bottom-up analysis of biomass applications, biomass cost supply curves and market prices of land, biomaterials and bioenergy carriers. These market prices depend on the scale of biomass use and the market volume of materials and energy carriers and were estimated using own-price elasticities of demand. The methodology was demonstrated for a case study of Poland in the year 2015 applying different scenarios on economic development and trade in Europe. For the key technologies considered, i.e. medium density fibreboard, poly lactic acid, electricity and methanol production, GHG emission mitigation costs increase strongly with the scale of biomass production. Large-scale introduction of biomass use decreases the GHG emission reduction potential at costs below 50 Euro /Mg CO 2eq with about 13-70% depending on the scenario. Biomaterial production accounts for only a small part of this GHG emission reduction potential due to relatively small material markets and the subsequent strong decrease of biomaterial market prices at large scale of production. GHG emission mitigation costs depend strongly on biomass supply curves, own-price elasticity of land and market volumes of bioenergy carriers. The analysis shows that these influences should be taken into account for developing biomass implementations strategies

A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

Science.gov (United States)

Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

1990-12-01

Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

A simple transformation for converting CW-OSL curves to LM-OSL curves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bulur, E.

2000-01-01

A simple mathematical transformation is introduced to convert from OSL decay curves obtained in the conventional way to those obtained using a linear modulation technique based on a linear increase of the stimulation light intensity during OSL measurement. The validity of the transformation...... was tested by the IR-stimulated luminescence curves from feldspars, recorded using both the conventional and the linear modulation techniques. The transformation was further applied to green-light-stimulated OSL from K and Na feldspars. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. A Survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinda, Soumyananda

2004-01-01

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. An EKC actually reveals how a technically specified measurement of environmental quality changes as the fortunes of a country change. A sizeable literature on EKC has grown in recent period. The common point of all the studies is the assertion that the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development/growth and subsequently improves at the later stages. In other words, environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income levels. This paper reviews some theoretical developments and empirical studies dealing with EKC phenomenon. Possible explanations for this EKC are seen in (1) the progress of economic development, from clean agrarian economy to polluting industrial economy to clean service economy; (2) tendency of people with higher income having higher preference for environmental quality, etc. Evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned from several corners. Only some air quality indicators, especially local pollutants, show the evidence of an EKC. However, an EKC is empirically observed, till there is no agreement in the literature on the income level at which environmental degradation starts declining. This paper provides an overview of the EKC literature, background history, conceptual insights, policy and the conceptual and methodological critique

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. A Survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinda, Soumyananda [Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B.T. Road, Kolkata-108 (India)

2004-08-01

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. An EKC actually reveals how a technically specified measurement of environmental quality changes as the fortunes of a country change. A sizeable literature on EKC has grown in recent period. The common point of all the studies is the assertion that the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development/growth and subsequently improves at the later stages. In other words, environmental pressure increases faster than income at early stages of development and slows down relative to GDP growth at higher income levels. This paper reviews some theoretical developments and empirical studies dealing with EKC phenomenon. Possible explanations for this EKC are seen in (1) the progress of economic development, from clean agrarian economy to polluting industrial economy to clean service economy; (2) tendency of people with higher income having higher preference for environmental quality, etc. Evidence of the existence of the EKC has been questioned from several corners. Only some air quality indicators, especially local pollutants, show the evidence of an EKC. However, an EKC is empirically observed, till there is no agreement in the literature on the income level at which environmental degradation starts declining. This paper provides an overview of the EKC literature, background history, conceptual insights, policy and the conceptual and methodological critique.

The Origin and Evolution of the Infrared Light Curve of SN2010jl

Science.gov (United States)

Dwek, Eli; Sarangi, Arkaprabha; Arendt, Richard; Fox, Ori; Kallman, Timothy; Kazanas, Demosthenes

2018-01-01

SN2010jl is a luminous core-collapse supernova (CCSN) of Type IIn that is surrounded by a dense circumstellar medium (CSM). The supernova (SN) luminosity vastly exceeds the available power from radiactive elements in the ejecta, and is powered by the interaction of the SN shock wave with the ambient medium. Upper limits on the UV and near-IR (NIR) emission from pre-explosion images of the region suggest that any progenitor star was hidden by pre-existing CSM dust. After day ~80, the SN spectrum shows the development of an IR excess above the extrapolated UVO emission arising from the shocked CSM. This IR component is attributed to thermal emission from dust.After day ~300, the light curve exhibits a rise in the NIR luminosity, concurrent with a steep decline at UVO wavelengths. Ruling out any possible contribution of SN-condensed dust to the IR light curve, we show that the early IR emission arises from the pre-existing CSM dust that survived the flash of radiation from the shock breakout. The late IR emission arises from newly-formed CSM dust that condensed in the cooling dust-free postshock gas of the advancing SN shock wave. Our analysis presents the first detailed modeling of dust formation in a cooling postshock environment, and provides important insights into the interaction of the SN shock wave with the CSM.

On the analysis of Canadian Holstein dairy cow lactation curves using standard growth functions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

López, S.; France, J.; Odongo, N.E.; McBride, R.A.; Kebreab, E.; Alzahal, O.; McBride, B.W.; Dijkstra, J.

2015-01-01

Six classical growth functions (monomolecular, Schumacher, Gompertz, logistic, Richards, and Morgan) were fitted to individual and average (by parity) cumulative milk production curves of Canadian Holstein dairy cows. The data analyzed consisted of approximately 91,000 daily milk yield records

Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael

2012-01-01

of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Results. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction......, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. Methods. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion....... The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did...

PAIR INSTABILITY SUPERNOVAE: LIGHT CURVES, SPECTRA, AND SHOCK BREAKOUT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasen, Daniel; Woosley, S. E.; Heger, Alexander

2011-01-01

For the initial mass range (140 M sun sun ) stars die in a thermonuclear runaway triggered by the pair-production instability. The supernovae they make can be remarkably energetic (up to ∼10 53 erg) and synthesize considerable amounts of radioactive isotopes. Here we model the evolution, explosion, and observational signatures of representative pair instability supernovae (PI SNe) spanning a range of initial masses and envelope structures. The predicted light curves last for hundreds of days and range in luminosity from very dim to extremely bright (L ∼ 10 44 erg s -1 ). The most massive events are bright enough to be seen at high redshift, but the extended light curve duration (∼1 yr)-prolonged by cosmological time-dilation-may make it difficult to detect them as transients. A more promising approach may be to search for the brief and luminous outbreak occurring when the explosion shock wave first reaches the stellar surface. Using a multi-wavelength radiation-hydrodynamics code we calculate that, in the rest frame, the shock breakout transients of PI SNe reach luminosities of 10 45 -10 46 erg s -1 , peak at wavelengths ∼30-170 A, and last for several hours. We discuss how observations of the light curves, spectra, and breakout emission can be used to constrain the mass, radius, and metallicity of the progenitor.

Fermionic fields on ZN-curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bershadsky, M.; Radul, A.

1988-01-01

The line bundles of degree g-1 on Z N -curves corresponding to 1/N nonsingular characteristics are considered. The determinants of Dirac operators defined on these line bundles are evaluated in terms of branch points. The generalization of Thomae's formula for Z N -curves is derived. (orig.)

Mannheim Partner D-Curves in the Euclidean 3-space

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Kazaz

2015-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the idea of Mannheim partner curves for curves lying on surfaces. By considering the Darboux frames of surface curves, we define Mannheim partner D-curves and give the characterizations for these curves. We also find the relations between geodesic curvatures, normal curvatures and geodesic torsions of these associated curves. Furthermore, we show that definition and characterizations of Mannheim partner D-curves include those of Mannheim partner curves in some special cases.

Remote sensing used for power curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, R; Joergensen, H E; Paulsen, U S; Larsen, T J; Antoniou, I; Thesbjerg, L

2008-01-01

Power curve measurement for large wind turbines requires taking into account more parameters than only the wind speed at hub height. Based on results from aerodynamic simulations, an equivalent wind speed taking the wind shear into account was defined and found to reduce the power standard deviation in the power curve significantly. Two LiDARs and a SoDAR are used to measure the wind profile in front of a wind turbine. These profiles are used to calculate the equivalent wind speed. The comparison of the power curves obtained with the three instruments to the traditional power curve, obtained using a cup anemometer measurement, confirms the results obtained from the simulations. Using LiDAR profiles reduces the error in power curve measurement, when these are used as relative instrument together with a cup anemometer. Results from the SoDAR do not show such promising results, probably because of noisy measurements resulting in distorted profiles

Rational points, rational curves, and entire holomorphic curves on projective varieties

CERN Document Server

Gasbarri, Carlo; Roth, Mike; Tschinkel, Yuri

2015-01-01

This volume contains papers from the Short Thematic Program on Rational Points, Rational Curves, and Entire Holomorphic Curves and Algebraic Varieties, held from June 3-28, 2013, at the Centre de Recherches Mathématiques, Université de Montréal, Québec, Canada. The program was dedicated to the study of subtle interconnections between geometric and arithmetic properties of higher-dimensional algebraic varieties. The main areas of the program were, among others, proving density of rational points in Zariski or analytic topology on special varieties, understanding global geometric properties of rationally connected varieties, as well as connections between geometry and algebraic dynamics exploring new geometric techniques in Diophantine approximation.

Curves and Abelian varieties

CERN Document Server

Alexeev, Valery; Clemens, C Herbert; Beauville, Arnaud

2008-01-01

This book is devoted to recent progress in the study of curves and abelian varieties. It discusses both classical aspects of this deep and beautiful subject as well as two important new developments, tropical geometry and the theory of log schemes. In addition to original research articles, this book contains three surveys devoted to singularities of theta divisors, of compactified Jacobians of singular curves, and of "strange duality" among moduli spaces of vector bundles on algebraic varieties.

Nonlinear decline-rate dependence and intrinsic variation of typeIa supernova luminosities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Lifan; Strovink, Mark; Conley, Alexander; Goldhaber,Gerson; Kowalski, Marek; Perlmutter, Saul; Siegrist, James

2005-12-14

Published B and V fluxes from nearby Type Ia supernova are fitted to light-curve templates with 4-6 adjustable parameters. Separately, B magnitudes from the same sample are fitted to a linear dependence on B-V color within a post-maximum time window prescribed by the CMAGIC method. These fits yield two independent SN magnitude estimates B{sub max} and B{sub BV}. Their difference varies systematically with decline rate {Delta}m{sub 15} in a form that is compatible with a bilinear but not a linear dependence; a nonlinear form likely describes the decline-rate dependence of B{sub max} itself. A Hubble fit to the average of B{sub max} and B{sub BV} requires a systematic correction for observed B-V color that can be described by a linear coefficient R = 2.59 {+-} 0.24, well below the coefficient R{sub B} {approx} 4.1 commonly used to characterize the effects of Milky Way dust. At 99.9% confidence the data reject a simple model in which no color correction is required for SNe that are clustered at the blue end of their observed color distribution. After systematic corrections are performed, B{sub max} and B{sub BV} exhibit mutual rms intrinsic variation equal to 0.074 {+-} 0.019 mag, of which at least an equal share likely belongs to B{sub BV}. SN magnitudes measured using maximum-luminosity or cmagic methods show comparable rms deviations of order {approx}0.14 mag from the Hubble line. The same fit also establishes a 95% confidence upper limit of 486 km s{sup -1} on the rms peculiar velocity of nearby SNe relative to the Hubble flow.

The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.; Fisseha, Kibret S.

2014-10-14

In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the US market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.

NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

OpenAIRE

de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

Anatomical curve identification

Science.gov (United States)

Bowman, Adrian W.; Katina, Stanislav; Smith, Joanna; Brown, Denise

2015-01-01

Methods for capturing images in three dimensions are now widely available, with stereo-photogrammetry and laser scanning being two common approaches. In anatomical studies, a number of landmarks are usually identified manually from each of these images and these form the basis of subsequent statistical analysis. However, landmarks express only a very small proportion of the information available from the images. Anatomically defined curves have the advantage of providing a much richer expression of shape. This is explored in the context of identifying the boundary of breasts from an image of the female torso and the boundary of the lips from a facial image. The curves of interest are characterised by ridges or valleys. Key issues in estimation are the ability to navigate across the anatomical surface in three-dimensions, the ability to recognise the relevant boundary and the need to assess the evidence for the presence of the surface feature of interest. The first issue is addressed by the use of principal curves, as an extension of principal components, the second by suitable assessment of curvature and the third by change-point detection. P-spline smoothing is used as an integral part of the methods but adaptations are made to the specific anatomical features of interest. After estimation of the boundary curves, the intermediate surfaces of the anatomical feature of interest can be characterised by surface interpolation. This allows shape variation to be explored using standard methods such as principal components. These tools are applied to a collection of images of women where one breast has been reconstructed after mastectomy and where interest lies in shape differences between the reconstructed and unreconstructed breasts. They are also applied to a collection of lip images where possible differences in shape between males and females are of interest. PMID:26041943

MODELING THE TRANSITION CURVE ON A LIMITED TERAIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. D. Borisenko

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Further development of the method of geometric modelling of transition curves, which are placed between rectilinear and circular sections of railway tracks and are created in localities, the relief of which causes certain restrictions on the size of the transition curves of the railway track. Methodology. The equation of the transition curve is taken in parametric form, in which the length of the arc of the modelled curve is used as a parameter. As initial data in the modelling of the transition curve, the coordinates of its initial point and the angle of inclination in it are tangent, the radius of the circumference of the circular section and the parameter that is used as a constraint when placing a section of the railway track. The transition curve is modelled under the condition that the distribution of its curvature from the length of the arc - the natural parameter - is described by a cubic dependence. This dependence contains four unknown coefficients; the unknown is also the length of the arc. The coefficients of the cubic dependence and the length of the arc of the transition curve, the coordinates of its end point, the angle of inclination in it of the tangent are determined during the simulation of the transition curve. The application of boundary conditions and methods of differential geometry with respect to the distribution of the slope angle of the tangent to the simulated curve from the initial to the end points of the transition curve and the calculation of the coordinates of the end point of the curve allows us to reduce the problem of modelling the transition curve to determine the arc length of this curve. Directly the length of the transition curve is in the process of minimizing the deviation of the circumference of the circular path from its current value obtained when searching for the arc length. Findings. As a result of the computational experiment, the possibility of modelling a transition curve between a

Prognostic Factors for Cognitive Decline After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benedictus, M.R.; Hochart, A.; Rossi, C.; Boulouis, G.; Henon, H.; van der Flier, W.M.; Cordonnier, C.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose-Stroke and dementia are closely related, but no prospective study ever focused on poststroke cognitive decline in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to determine prognostic factors for cognitive decline in patients with ICH. Methods-We prospectively

The triumph and decline of the "squares": Grumman Aerospace engineers and production workers in the Apollo era, 1957--1973

Science.gov (United States)

Onkst, David Hugh

This dissertation is a social, cultural, and economic history of the men and women of the Grumman Aerospace Company of Bethpage, New York from 1957 through 1973. These "Grummanites" were the engineers and production workers who designed and built the Apollo Lunar Modules that allowed humans to land on the Moon. This study provides unique insights into the impact that the Apollo Program---a large state-initiated and -supported program---had on those "squares," people whom many contemporaries saw as a vital part of mainstream 1960s American society. By the beginning of the Space Age in 1957, Grumman, Long Island's single largest employer, had firmly established a workplace culture of paternalism that Grummanites largely embraced. Company officials believed strongly in worker retention and had established a policy of providing every sort of benefit their employees seemingly desired, including a highly personal and participatory form of management. Many Grummanites had joined the firm during the early years of the Apollo Program because they believed in the promise of permanent employment on exciting projects that would explore the endless frontier of space. But, as many of these mainly self-reliant, individualistic "squares" would bitterly discover, their dedication to Grumman did little to secure their livelihoods during the aerospace industry's early 1970s downsizing; their individual successes were too largely tied to federal spending and declined when Americans grew disenchanted with space exploration. This dissertation demonstrates how the cultural bond of paternalism between aerospace workers and their company unraveled in the 1960s, and then ended in the early 1970s, because of forces within the company, the economy, and the American state. The word "triumph" in this study's title not only applies to Grummanites' triumphs with the Lunar Modules, but also their individual socioeconomic victories. The term "decline" refers to the early 1970s downsizing of more

Automated Blazar Light Curves Using Machine Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Spencer James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-07-27

This presentation describes a problem and methodology pertaining to automated blazar light curves. Namely, optical variability patterns for blazars require the construction of light curves and in order to generate the light curves, data must be filtered before processing to ensure quality.

Polar representation of centrifugal pump homologous curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veloso, Marcelo Antonio; Mattos, Joao Roberto Loureiro de

2008-01-01

Essential for any mathematical model designed to simulate flow transient events caused by pump operations is the pump performance data. The performance of a centrifugal pump is characterized by four basic parameters: the rotational speed, the volumetric flow rate, the dynamic head, and the hydraulic torque. Any one of these quantities can be expressed as a function of any two others. The curves showing the relationships between these four variables are called the pump characteristic curves, also referred to as four-quadrant curves. The characteristic curves are empirically developed by the pump manufacturer and uniquely describe head and torque as functions of volumetric flow rate and rotation speed. Because of comprising a large amount of points, the four-quadrant configuration is not suitable for computational purposes. However, it can be converted to a simpler form by the development of the homologous curves, in which dynamic head and hydraulic torque ratios are expressed as functions of volumetric flow and rotation speed ratios. The numerical use of the complete set of homologous curves requires specification of sixteen partial curves, being eight for the dynamic head and eight for the hydraulic torque. As a consequence, the handling of homologous curves is still somewhat complicated. In solving flow transient problems that require the pump characteristic data for all the operation zones, the polar form appears as the simplest way to represent the homologous curves. In the polar method, the complete characteristics of a pump can be described by only two closed curves, one for the dynamic head and other for the hydraulic torque, both in function of a single angular coordinate defined adequately in terms of the quotient between volumetric flow ratio and rotation speed ratio. The usefulness and advantages of this alternative method are demonstrated through a practical example in which the homologous curves for a pump of the type used in the main coolant loops of a

Comparison of embrittlement trend curves to high fluence surveillance results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogaert, A.S.; Gerard, R.; Chaouadi, R.

2011-01-01

In the regulatory justification of the integrity of the reactor pressure vessels (RPV) for long term operation, use is made of predictive formulas (also called trend curves) to evaluate the RPV embrittlement (expressed in terms of RTNDT shifts) in function of fluence, chemical composition and in some cases temperature, neutron flux or product form. It has been shown recently that some of the existing or proposed trend curves tend to underpredict high dose embrittlement. Due to the scarcity of representative surveillance data at high dose, some test reactor results were used in these evaluations and raise the issue of representativeness of the accelerated test reactor irradiations (dose rate effects). In Belgium the surveillance capsules withdrawal schedule was modified in the nineties in order to obtain results corresponding to 60 years of operation or more with the initial surveillance program. Some of these results are already available and offer a good opportunity to test the validity of the predictive formulas at high dose. In addition, advanced surveillance methods are used in Belgium like the Master Curve, increased tensile tests, and microstructural investigations. These techniques made it possible to show the conservatism of the regulatory approach and to demonstrate increased margins, especially for the first generation units. In this paper the surveillance results are compared to different predictive formulas, as well as to an engineering hardening model developed at SCK.CEN. Generally accepted property-to-property correlations are critically revisited. Conclusions are made on the reliability and applicability of the embrittlement trend curves. (authors)

Consistent cost curves for identification of optimal energy savings across industry and residential sectors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik; Baldini, Mattia

the costs are incurred and savings (difference in discount rates both private and social) • The issue of marginal investment in a case of replacement anyway or a full investment in the energy saving technology • Implementation costs (and probability of investment) differs across sectors • Cost saving...... with constructing and applying the cost curves in modelling: • Cost curves do not have the same cost interpretation across economic subsectors and end-use technologies (investment cost for equipment varies – including/excluding installation – adaptation costs – indirect production costs) • The time issue of when...... options are not additive - meaning that marginal energy savings from one option depends on what other options implemented We address the importance of these issues and illustrate with Danish cases how large the difference in savings cost curves can be if different methodologies are used. For example...

Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Prahl, Boris F.; Boettle, Markus; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Rybski, Diego

2018-01-01

The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves. PMID:29557944

Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities

Science.gov (United States)

Prahl, Boris F.; Boettle, Markus; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.; Rybski, Diego

2018-03-01

The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.

SN 2013ej IN M74: A LUMINOUS AND FAST-DECLINING TYPE II-P SUPERNOVA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Fang [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Wang, Xiaofeng; Chen, Juncheng; Mo, Jun; Zhao, Xulin [Physics Department and Tsinghua Center for Astrophysics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Jujia [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Brown, Peter J. [George P. and Cynthia Woods Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Texas A. and M. University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4242 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Zampieri, Luca [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 5, I-35122 Padova (Italy); Pumo, Maria Letizia [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo “Giuseppe S. Vaiana,” Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134 Palermo (Italy); Zhang, Tianmeng, E-mail: huangfang@mail.bnu.edu.cn, E-mail: wang_xf@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2015-07-01

We present extensive ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared observations of the Type IIP supernova (SN IIP) 2013ej in the nearby spiral galaxy M74. The multicolor light curves, spanning from ∼8–185 days after explosion, show that it has a higher peak luminosity (i.e., M{sub V} ∼ −17.83 mag at maximum light), a faster post-peak decline, and a shorter plateau phase (i.e., ∼50 days) compared to the normal Type IIP SN 1999em. The mass of {sup 56}Ni is estimated as 0.02 ± 0.01 M{sub ⊙} from the radioactive tail of the bolometric light curve. The spectral evolution of SN 2013ej is similar to that of SN 2004et and SN 2007od, but shows a larger expansion velocity (i.e., v{sub Fe} {sub ii} ∼ 4600 km s{sup −1} at t ∼ 50 days) and broader line profiles. In the nebular phase, the emission of the Hα line displays a double-peak structure, perhaps due to the asymmetric distribution of {sup 56}Ni produced in the explosion. With the constraints from the main observables such as bolometric light curve, expansion velocity, and photospheric temperature of SN 2013ej, we performed hydrodynamical simulations of the explosion parameters, yielding the total explosion energy as ∼0.7× 10{sup 51} erg, the radius of the progenitor as ∼600 R{sub ⊙}, and the ejected mass as ∼10.6 M{sub ⊙}. These results suggest that SN 2013ej likely arose from a red supergiant with a mass of 12–13 M{sub ⊙} immediately before the explosion.

Parametric representation of centrifugal pump homologous curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veloso, Marcelo A.; Mattos, Joao R.L. de

2015-01-01

Essential for any mathematical model designed to simulate flow transient events caused by pump operations is the pump performance data. The performance of a centrifugal pump is characterized by four basic quantities: the rotational speed, the volumetric flow rate, the dynamic head, and the hydraulic torque. The curves showing the relationships between these four variables are called the pump characteristic curves. The characteristic curves are empirically developed by the pump manufacturer and uniquely describe head and torque as functions of volumetric flow rate and rotation speed. Because of comprising a large amount of points, this configuration is not suitable for computational purposes. However, it can be converted to a simpler form by the development of the homologous curves, in which dynamic head and hydraulic torque ratios are expressed as functions of volumetric flow and rotation speed ratios. The numerical use of the complete set of homologous curves requires specification of sixteen partial curves, being eight for the dynamic head and eight for the hydraulic torque. As a consequence, the handling of homologous curves is still somewhat complicated. In solving flow transient problems that require the pump characteristic data for all the operation zones, the parametric form appears as the simplest way to deal with the homologous curves. In this approach, the complete characteristics of a pump can be described by only two closed curves, one for the dynamic head and other for the hydraulic torque, both in function of a single angular coordinate defined adequately in terms of the quotient between volumetric flow ratio and rotation speed ratio. The usefulness and advantages of this alternative method are demonstrated through a practical example in which the homologous curves for a pump of the type used in the main coolant loops of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) are transformed to the parametric form. (author)

Assessing variation in skeletal production from surface death assemblages on the basis of age-frequency distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasovych, Adam; Kidwell, Susan M.; Foygel Barber, Rina

2015-04-01

Age-frequency distributions of dead skeletal material that capture information on the elapsed time since death of individuals on the landscape or seabed provide decadal- to millennial-scale windows into the history of production and on the processes that lead to skeletal disintegration and burial. However, models quantifying the dynamics of skeletal loss assumed that skeletal production has been constant during accumulation of death assemblages. Here, we assess the joint effects of temporally-variable production and skeletal loss on the shape of postmortem age-frequency distributions. We show that the modes of such distributions will tend to be shifted to younger age cohorts relative to the true timing of past production pulses. This shift in the timing of a past production will be higher where loss rates are high and/or the rate of decline in production is slow. We apply the models combining the dynamic of loss and production to death assemblages with the deposit-feeding bivalve Nuculana taphria from the Southern California continental shelf, finding that (1) an onshore-offshore gradient in time averaging is dominated by a gradient in the timing of production, corresponding to the tracking of shallow-water habitats under a sea-level rise, and (2) model estimates of the timing of past production are in good agreement with an independent sea-level curve.

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

Science.gov (United States)

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neij, Lena; Helby, Peter [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies; Dannemand Andersen, Per; Morthorst, Poul Erik [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark); Durstewitz, Michael; Hoppe-Kilpper, Martin [Inst. fuer Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.V., Kassel (DE); and others

2003-07-01

The objective of the project, Experience curves: a tool for energy policy assessment (EXTOOL), was to analyse the experience curve as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. This is of special interest, since the use of experience curves for the assessment of energy policy measures requires the development of the established experience curve methodology. This development raises several questions which have been addressed and analysed in this project. The analysis is based on case studies of wind power, an area with considerable experience in technology development, deployment and policy measures. Therefore, a case study based on wind power provides a good opportunity to study the usefulness of experience curves as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. However, the results are discussed in terms of using experience curves for the assessment of any energy technology. The project shows that experience curves can be used to assess the effect of combined policy measures in terms of cost reductions. Moreover, the result of the project show that experience curves could be used to analyse international 'learning systems', i.e. cost reductions brought about by the development of wind power and policy measures used in other countries. Nevertheless, the use of experience curves for the assessment of policy programmes has several limitations. First, the analysis and assessment of policy programmes cannot be achieved unless relevant experience curves based on good data can be developed. The authors are of the opinion that only studies that provide evidence of the validity, reliability and relevance of experience curves should be taken into account in policy making. Second, experience curves provide an aggregated picture of the situation and more detailed analysis of various sources of cost reduction, and cost reductions resulting from individual policy measures, requires additional data and analysis tools. Third, we do not recommend the use of

Section curve reconstruction and mean-camber curve extraction of a point-sampled blade surface.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-long Li

Full Text Available The blade is one of the most critical parts of an aviation engine, and a small change in the blade geometry may significantly affect the dynamics performance of the aviation engine. Rapid advancements in 3D scanning techniques have enabled the inspection of the blade shape using a dense and accurate point cloud. This paper proposes a new method to achieving two common tasks in blade inspection: section curve reconstruction and mean-camber curve extraction with the representation of a point cloud. The mathematical morphology is expanded and applied to restrain the effect of the measuring defects and generate an ordered sequence of 2D measured points in the section plane. Then, the energy and distance are minimized to iteratively smoothen the measured points, approximate the section curve and extract the mean-camber curve. In addition, a turbine blade is machined and scanned to observe the curvature variation, energy variation and approximation error, which demonstrates the availability of the proposed method. The proposed method is simple to implement and can be applied in aviation casting-blade finish inspection, large forging-blade allowance inspection and visual-guided robot grinding localization.

Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

2010-11-09

Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

NOISY DISPERSION CURVE PICKING (NDCP): a Matlab friendly suite package for fully control dispersion curve picking

Science.gov (United States)

Granados, I.; Calo, M.; Ramos, V.

2017-12-01

We developed a Matlab suite package (NDCP, Noisy Dispersion Curve Picking) that allows a full control over parameters to identify correctly group velocity dispersion curves in two types of datasets: correlograms between two stations or surface wave records from earthquakes. Using the frequency-time analysis (FTAN), the procedure to obtain the dispersion curves from records with a high noise level becomes difficult, and sometimes, the picked curve result in a misinterpreted character. For correlogram functions, obtained with cross-correlation of noise records or earthquake's coda, a non-homogeneous noise sources distribution yield to a non-symmetric Green's function (GF); to retrieve the complete information contained in there, NDCP allows to pick the dispersion curve in the time domain both in the causal and non-causal part of the GF. Then the picked dispersion curve is displayed on the FTAN diagram to in order to check if it matches with the maximum of the signal energy avoiding confusion with overtones or spike of noise. To illustrate how NDCP performs, we show exemple using: i) local correlograms functions obtained from sensors deployed into a volcanic caldera (Los Humeros, in Puebla, Mexico), ii) regional correlograms functions between two stations of the National Seismological Service (SSN, Servicio Sismológico Nacional in Spanish), and iii) surface wave seismic record for an earthquake located in the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico and recorded by the SSN. This work is supported by the GEMEX project (Geothermal Europe-Mexico consortium).

Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Ide

Full Text Available Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation.

LATE-TIME LIGHT CURVES OF TYPE II SUPERNOVAE: PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF SUPERNOVAE AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otsuka, Masaaki; Meixner, Margaret; Panagia, Nino [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Dr., Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Fabbri, Joanna; Barlow, Michael J.; Wesson, Roger [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Clayton, Geoffrey C.; Andrews, Jennifer E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States); Gallagher, Joseph S. [Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science, Raymond Walters College, 9555 Plain field Rd., Blue Ash, OH 45236 (United States); Sugerman, Ben E. K. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Goucher College, 1021 Dulaney Valley Road, Baltimore, MD 21204 (United States); Ercolano, Barbara [Universitaets-Sternwarte Muenchen, Scheinerstr. 1, 81679 Muenchen (Germany); Welch, Douglas, E-mail: otsuka@stsci.edu, E-mail: otsuka@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw [Department of Physics and Astronomy, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M1 (Canada)

2012-01-01

We present BVRIJHK-band photometry of six core-collapse supernovae, SNe 1999bw, 2002hh, 2003gd, 2004et, 2005cs, and 2006bc, measured at late epochs (>2 yr) based on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the Gemini North, and WIYN telescopes. We also show the JHK light curves of supernova impostor SN 2008S up to day 575 because it was serendipitously in our SN 2002hh field of view. Of our 43 HST observations in total, 36 observations are successful in detecting the light from the SNe alone and measuring magnitudes of all the targets. HST observations show a resolved scattered light echo around SN 2003gd at day 1520 and around SN 2002hh at day 1717. Our Gemini and WIYN observations detected SNe 2002hh and 2004et as well. Combining our data with previously published data, we show VRIJHK-band light curves and estimate decline magnitude rates at each band in four different phases. Our prior work on these light curves and other data indicate that dust is forming in our targets from days {approx}300 to 400, supporting SN dust formation theory. In this paper we focus on other physical properties derived from late-time light curves. We estimate {sup 56}Ni masses for our targets (0.5-14 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -2} M{sub Sun }) from the bolometric light curve of each of days {approx}150-300 using SN 1987A as a standard (7.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -2} M{sub Sun }). The flattening or sometimes increasing fluxes in the late-time light curves of SNe 2002hh, 2003gd, 2004et, and 2006bc indicate the presence of light echoes. We estimate the circumstellar hydrogen density of the material causing the light echo and find that SN 2002hh is surrounded by relatively dense materials (n(H) >400 cm{sup -3}) and SNe 2003gd and 2004et have densities more typical of the interstellar medium ({approx}1 cm{sup -3}). We analyze the sample as a whole in the context of physical properties derived in prior work. The {sup 56}Ni mass appears well correlated with progenitor mass with a slope of 0

Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

Mentorship, learning curves, and balance.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Meryl S; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Quintessenza, James A; Chai, Paul J; Lindberg, Harald L; Dickey, Jamie; Ungerleider, Ross M

2007-09-01

Professionals working in the arena of health care face a variety of challenges as their careers evolve and develop. In this review, we analyze the role of mentorship, learning curves, and balance in overcoming challenges that all such professionals are likely to encounter. These challenges can exist both in professional and personal life. As any professional involved in health care matures, complex professional skills must be mastered, and new professional skills must be acquired. These skills are both technical and judgmental. In most circumstances, these skills must be learned. In 2007, despite the continued need for obtaining new knowledge and learning new skills, the professional and public tolerance for a "learning curve" is much less than in previous decades. Mentorship is the key to success in these endeavours. The success of mentorship is two-sided, with responsibilities for both the mentor and the mentee. The benefits of this relationship must be bidirectional. It is the responsibility of both the student and the mentor to assure this bidirectional exchange of benefit. This relationship requires time, patience, dedication, and to some degree selflessness. This mentorship will ultimately be the best tool for mastering complex professional skills and maturing through various learning curves. Professional mentorship also requires that mentors identify and explicitly teach their mentees the relational skills and abilities inherent in learning the management of the triad of self, relationships with others, and professional responsibilities.Up to two decades ago, a learning curve was tolerated, and even expected, while professionals involved in healthcare developed the techniques that allowed for the treatment of previously untreatable diseases. Outcomes have now improved to the point that this type of learning curve is no longer acceptable to the public. Still, professionals must learn to perform and develop independence and confidence. The responsibility to

A simple Lissajous curves experimental setup

Science.gov (United States)

Şahin Kızılcık, Hasan; Damlı, Volkan

2018-05-01

The aim of this study is to develop an experimental setup to produce Lissajous curves. The setup was made using a smartphone, a powered speaker (computer speaker), a balloon, a laser pointer and a piece of mirror. Lissajous curves are formed as follows: a piece of mirror is attached to a balloon. The balloon is vibrated with the sound signal provided by the speaker that is connected to a smartphone. The laser beam is reflected off the mirror and the reflection is shaped as a Lissajous curve. Because of the intersection of two frequencies (frequency of the sound signal and natural vibration frequency of the balloon), these curves are formed. They can be used to measure the ratio of frequencies.

Learning from the Sun. Analysis of the use of experience curves for energy policy purposes. The case of photovoltaic power. Final report of the Photex project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaeffer, G.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; De Moor, H.H.C.; Alsema, E.; Sark, W.; Durstewicz, M.; Perrin, M.; Boulanger, P.; Laukamp, H.; Zuccaro, C.

2004-08-01

Since the 1990s energy policy scientists have started to explore the possibilities of using the experience curve approach for energy policy making. The concept of the experience curve is simple, at least in principle. It states that, for every doubling of cumulative produced capacity of a product or technology, the cost for making it declines with a fixed percentage (learning rate). Historical statistical analysis can be used to define this percentage. Extrapolating the trend thus found, into the future will then give relevant information about future cost developments and will also give information how much 'learning money' will be needed to get to the break-even point. The Photex project used the development of solar PV as a case to further explore this approach, and also to deduce lessons for PV policy. Other aims were to look at learning rates of the different components of PV-systems and to combine the experience curve analyses with bottom-up engineering studies. The main conclusion with regard to the use of experience curves for energy policy making is that this is an interesting approach, but that such an analysis should be done with much care. For the historical analysis the availability of reliable and firm data is essential. As cost data often are not available, price data could be used as a proxy, as long as sufficient long time ranges are used. Also, the analyst should take care he considers the right learning system boundaries. Furthermore the number of years to be included in the statistical analysis should at least be 10 years and this period sample should not over-represent stable price periods or periods of steep price decline. If possible, data uncertainties should be taken into account as well. An interesting finding was that, at least in the case of PV, the learning rate is not a constant, but can vary over time. In the case of PV it improved from 20% to 23%. Extrapolations into the future should take uncertainties into account and always be

Quantum fields in curved space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birrell, N.D.; Davies, P.C.W.

1982-01-01

The book presents a comprehensive review of the subject of gravitational effects in quantum field theory. Quantum field theory in Minkowski space, quantum field theory in curved spacetime, flat spacetime examples, curved spacetime examples, stress-tensor renormalization, applications of renormalization techniques, quantum black holes and interacting fields are all discussed in detail. (U.K.)

Accept or Decline? An Analytics-Based Decision Tool for Kidney Offer Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Kung, Jerry; Trichakis, Nikolaos; Wojciechowski, David; Vagefi, Parsia A

2017-12-01

When a deceased-donor kidney is offered to a waitlisted candidate, the decision to accept or decline the organ relies primarily upon a practitioner's experience and intuition. Such decisions must achieve a delicate balance between estimating the immediate benefit of transplantation and the potential for future higher-quality offers. However, the current experience-based paradigm lacks scientific rigor and is subject to the inaccuracies that plague anecdotal decision-making. A data-driven analytics-based model was developed to predict whether a patient will receive an offer for a deceased-donor kidney at Kidney Donor Profile Index thresholds of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6, and at timeframes of 3, 6, and 12 months. The model accounted for Organ Procurement Organization, blood group, wait time, DR antigens, and prior offer history to provide accurate and personalized predictions. Performance was evaluated on data sets spanning various lengths of time to understand the adaptability of the method. Using United Network for Organ Sharing match-run data from March 2007 to June 2013, out-of-sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was approximately 0.87 for all Kidney Donor Profile Index thresholds and timeframes considered for the 10 most populous Organ Procurement Organizations. As more data becomes available, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values increase and subsequently level off. The development of a data-driven analytics-based model may assist transplant practitioners and candidates during the complex decision of whether to accept or forgo a current kidney offer in anticipation of a future high-quality offer. The latter holds promise to facilitate timely transplantation and optimize the efficiency of allocation.

The thermal curve of nuclear matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Y.G.; Peter, J.; Siwek, A.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Colin, J.; Cussol, D.; Durand, D.; Genouin-Duhamel, E.; Gulminelli, F.; Lecolley, J.F.; Lefort, T.; Le Neindre, N.; Lopez, O.; Louvel, M.; Nguyen, A.D.; Steckmeyer, J.C.; Tamain, B.; Vient, E.

1997-01-01

Earlier measurements of nuclear matter thermal curve of liquid to gas phase transition presented two limitation: only one temperature measuring method was available and the mass number of the formed nuclei decreased from 190 to 50 when the excitation energy increased. To avoid these limitations experiments with the multidetector INDRA at GANIL were carried-out. Among the quasi-projectiles issued from the 36 Ar collisions at 52, 74, 95 A.MeV on the 58 Ni, nuclei of close masses were selected. The excitation energy was determined by the calorimetry of the charged products emitted by quasi-projectiles while the temperature was measured by three different methods. Very different apparent temperatures were obtained for the same excitation energy/nucleon. Only one curve displays a slope variation but no indication of plateau. With the quasi-projectiles obtained from the collisions of 129 Xe at 50 MeV/u on a 119 Sn target behaviors similar to those of 36 Ar were observed in the covered domain of excitation energy. To solve this puzzle and recover the initial temperatures of interest the only mean was to do a theoretical simulation in which one follows the de-excitation of the nuclei formed at different excitation energies and look for the thermal curve able to reproduce the observed temperatures. Two extreme possibilities were taken into account concerning the de-excitation process: either a sequential process established at E * /A≤ 3 MeV/u or a sudden multifragmentation in several hot fragments, most probably at E * /A≥ 10 MeV/u. In both cases it was possible to reproduce the whole set of experimental results concerning the 36 Ar projectile. The initial temperature increases steadily as a function of excitation energy showing no plateau or singular points. The results indicate that, being a system without external pressure, in its passage from the liquid phase to the gas phase the nucleus does not display necessarily a temperature plateau. Discussions on

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Shapiro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

SRHA calibration curve

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — an UV calibration curve for SRHA quantitation. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Chang, X., and D. Bouchard. Surfactant-Wrapped Multiwalled...

A model for individual egg production in chickens

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grossman, M.; Koops, W.J.

2001-01-01

Our primary objective was to improve on an existing model for the individual weekly egg production curve by modeling the curve as a sum of logistic functions: one for the increasing phase of production and a sum for the decreasing phases. To illustrate the model, we used four data sets from two

What distinguishes passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Orquin, Jacob Lund; Bech-Larsen, Tino

2014-01-01

While sales flyer ad spending in Denmark has increased over the last decade ,the proportion of consumers declining to receive such flyers has been ever-increasing. To address this paradox, attitudinal and behavioural factors distinguishing passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers ...... on the Internet.To reach the decliners, retailers could focus on the possibilities of the Internet, but to stop the trend of escalating numbers of decliners, retailers will have to address the perceived inconvenience and uselessness of sales flyers....

Light Curve Simulation Using Spacecraft CAD Models and Empirical Material Spectral BRDFS

Science.gov (United States)

Willison, A.; Bedard, D.

This paper presents a Matlab-based light curve simulation software package that uses computer-aided design (CAD) models of spacecraft and the spectral bidirectional reflectance distribution function (sBRDF) of their homogenous surface materials. It represents the overall optical reflectance of objects as a sBRDF, a spectrometric quantity, obtainable during an optical ground truth experiment. The broadband bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), the basis of a broadband light curve, is produced by integrating the sBRDF over the optical wavelength range. Colour-filtered BRDFs, the basis of colour-filtered light curves, are produced by first multiplying the sBRDF by colour filters, and integrating the products. The software package's validity is established through comparison of simulated reflectance spectra and broadband light curves with those measured of the CanX-1 Engineering Model (EM) nanosatellite, collected during an optical ground truth experiment. It is currently being extended to simulate light curves of spacecraft in Earth orbit, using spacecraft Two-Line-Element (TLE) sets, yaw/pitch/roll angles, and observer coordinates. Measured light curves of the NEOSSat spacecraft will be used to validate simulated quantities. The sBRDF was chosen to represent material reflectance as it is spectrometric and a function of illumination and observation geometry. Homogeneous material sBRDFs were obtained using a goniospectrometer for a range of illumination and observation geometries, collected in a controlled environment. The materials analyzed include aluminum alloy, two types of triple-junction photovoltaic (TJPV) cell, white paint, and multi-layer insulation (MLI). Interpolation and extrapolation methods were used to determine the sBRDF for all possible illumination and observation geometries not measured in the laboratory, resulting in empirical look-up tables. These look-up tables are referenced when calculating the overall sBRDF of objects, where

Double-curved precast concrete elements : Research into technical viability of the flexible mould method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schipper, H.R.

2015-01-01

The production of precast, concrete elements with complex, double-curved geometry is expensive due to the high costcosts of the necessary moulds and the limited possibilities for mould reuse. Currently, CNC-milled foam moulds are the solution applied mostly in projects, offering good aesthetic

Injury risk curves for the WorldSID 50th male dummy.

Science.gov (United States)

Petitjean, Audrey; Trosseille, Xavier; Petit, Philippe; Irwin, Annette; Hassan, Joe; Praxl, Norbert

2009-11-01

The development of the WorldSID 50th percentile male dummy was initiated in 1997 by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO/SC12/TC22/WG5) with the objective of developing a more biofidelic side impact dummy and supporting the adoption of a harmonised dummy into regulations. More than 45 organizations from all around the world have contributed to this effort including governmental agencies, research institutes, car manufacturers and dummy manufacturers. The first production version of the WorldSID 50th male dummy was released in March 2004 and demonstrated an improved biofidelity over existing side impact dummies. Full scale vehicle tests covering a wide range of side impact test procedures were performed worldwide with the WorldSID dummy. However, the vehicle safety performance could not be assessed due to lack of injury risk curves for this dummy. The development of these curves was initiated in 2004 within the framework of ISO/SC12/TC22/WG6 (Injury criteria). In 2008, the ACEA- Dummy Task Force (TFD) decided to contribute to this work and offered resources for a project manager to coordinate of the effort of a group of volunteer biomechanical experts from international institutions (ISO, EEVC, VRTC/NHTSA, JARI, Transport Canada), car manufacturers (ACEA, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Chrysler) and universities (Wayne State University, Ohio State University, John Hopkins University, Medical College of Wisconsin) to develop harmonized injury risk curves. An in-depth literature review was conducted. All the available PMHS datasets were identified, the test configurations and the quality of the results were checked. Criteria were developed for inclusion or exclusion of PMHS tests in the development of the injury risk curves. Data were processed to account for differences in mass and age of the subjects. Finally, injury risk curves were developed using the following statistical techniques, the certainty method, the Mertz/Weber method, the

Decline of functional capacity in healthy aging workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soer, Remko; Brouwer, Sandra; Geertzen, Jan H; van der Schans, Cees; Groothoff, Johan W.; Reneman, Michiel F

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES: (1) To study the natural decline in functional capacity (FC) of healthy aging workers; (2) to compare FC to categories of workload; and (3) to study the differences in decline between men and women. DESIGN: Cross-sectional design. SETTING: A rehabilitation center at a university medical

Holomorphic curves in exploded manifolds: Kuranishi structure

OpenAIRE

Parker, Brett

2013-01-01

This paper constructs a Kuranishi structure for the moduli stack of holomorphic curves in exploded manifolds. To avoid some technicalities of abstract Kuranishi structures, we embed our Kuranishi structure inside a moduli stack of curves. The construction also works for the moduli stack of holomorphic curves in any compact symplectic manifold.

Autobiographical memory decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

OpenAIRE

EL HAJ, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Nandrino, Jean-Louis; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Autobiographical memory, or memory for personal experiences, allows individuals to define themselves and construct a meaningful life story. Decline of this ability, as observed in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), results in an impaired sense of self and identity. We present a critical review of theories and findings regarding cognitive and neuroanatomical underpinnings of autobiographical memory and its decline in AD and highlight studies on its clinical rehabilitation. We propose that autobiographi...

Transition curves for highway geometric design

CERN Document Server

Kobryń, Andrzej

2017-01-01

This book provides concise descriptions of the various solutions of transition curves, which can be used in geometric design of roads and highways. It presents mathematical methods and curvature functions for defining transition curves. .

Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

1975-01-01

Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...