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Sample records for production availability forecast

  1. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  2. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  3. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  4. A mathematical model to forecast uranium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camisani-Calzolari, F.A.G.M.

    1987-01-01

    The uranium production forecasting program described in this paper projects production from reasonably assured, estimated additional and speculative resources in the cost categories of less than $130/kg U. Originally designed to handle South African production, it has been expanded and redimensioned using available published information to forecast production for countries of the Western World. The program forecasts production from up to 400 plants over a period of fifty years and has built-in production models derived from documented historical data of the more important uranium provinces. It is particularly suitable to assess production capabilities on a national and global scale where variations in outputs for the individual plants tend to even out. The program is aimed at putting the uranium potential of any one country into a realistic perspective, and it could thus be useful for planning purposes and marketing strategies

  5. Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikfarman, Hanieh

    Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this

  6. Incorporating operational experience and design changes in availability forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, D.

    1988-01-01

    Reliability or availability forecasts which are based solely on past operating experience will be precise if the sample is large enough, and unbiased if nothing in the future design, environment, operating region or anything else changes. Unfortunately, life is never like that. This paper considers the methodology and philosophy of modifying forecasts based on past experience to take account also of changes in design, construction methods, operating philosophy, environments, operator training and so on, between the plants which provided the operating experience and the plant for which the forecast is being made. This emphasises the importance of collecting, assessing, and learning from past data and of a thorough knowledge of future designs, and procurement, operation, and maintenance policies. The difference between targets and central estimates is also discussed. The paper concludes that improvements in future availability can be made by learning from past experience, but that certain conditions must be fulfilled in order to do so. (author)

  7. A Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach for Forecasting the Productivity of a Factory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chi Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Productivity is always considered as one of the most basic and important factors to the competitiveness of a factory. For this reason, all factories have sought to enhance productivity. To achieve this goal, we first need to estimate the productivity. However, there is considerable degree of uncertainty in productivity. For this reason, a fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach is proposed in this study to forecast the productivity of a factory. First, a learning model is established to estimate the future productivity. Subsequently, the learning model is converted into three equivalent nonlinear programming problems to be solved from various viewpoints. The fuzzy productivity forecasts by different experts may not be equal and should therefore be aggregated. To this end, the fuzzy intersection and back propagation network approach is applied. The practical example of a dynamic random access memory (DRAM factory is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  8. Energy production forecasting, experiences from Lillgrund. Lillgrund Pilot Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Lasse; Schelander, Peter; Haakansson, Maans; Hansson, Johan (Vattenfall Vindkraft AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-01-15

    Forecasts of energy production at Lillgrund are being made with the prediction tool WPPT. The forecasts are updated every hour with observed wind- and production data. WPPT combines statistical and physical methods and the nature of the model changes with time. In the very short range, the observed data is the dominant factor predicting energy production while the physical methods, e.g. the weather forecasts, gradually are given more weight as we go further away from the production hour. Until recently Vattenfall has relied solely on weather forecasts from one institute, namely DMI (The Danish Meteorological Institute), in predicting the energy produced at Lillgrund. The uncertainty in the forecast has been given some attention but since only one source of information has been available the possibilities of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis has been limited. To meet the growing demand for quality and delivery reliability, Vattenfall has begun to purchase additional weather data from the Swedish supplier WeatherTech Scandinavia. These data will be used together with data from DMI. You get a kind of ensemble forecast approach. The difference in structure, configuration and physical approaches of the models presumably makes the model related forecast errors uncorrelated. This lays the path for quality improvements when the different forecasts are combined optimally. WPPT has been used in forecasting the energy production at Lillgrund since production began in 2007. The average absolute error in the production forecast / turbine is 0.17 MW. If WPPT only relied on a persistence forecast for the next 24 hours the error will become almost three times as high. So far WPPT has a skill score of 86% in the 24-hour forecasts compared to an assumption of persistence. There is a clearly visible pattern that WPPT underestimates production in situations with strong winds and conversely overestimate production when winds are weak. This is also typical for pure persistence

  9. A review of forecasting models for new products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Mas-Machuca

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The main objective of this article is to present an up-to-date review of new product forecasting techniques. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic review of forecasting journals was carried out using the ISI-Web of Knowledge database. Several articles were retrieved and examined, and forecasting techniques relevant to this study were selected and assessed. Findings: The strengths, weaknesses and applications of the main forecasting models are discussed to examine trends and set future challenges. Research limitations/implications: A theoretical reference framework for forecasting techniques classified into judgmental, consumer/market research, cause-effect and artificial intelligence is proposed. Future research can assess these models qualitatively. Practical implications: Companies are currently motivated to launch new products and thus attract new customers to expand their market share.  In order to reduce uncertainty and risk, many companies go to extra lengths to forecast sales accurately using several techniques. Originality/value: This article outlines new lines of research on the improvement of new product performance which will aid managers in decision making and allow companies to sustain their competitive advantages in this challenging world.

  10. Empirical testing of forecast update procedure forseasonal products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wong, Chee Yew; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    Updating of forecasts is essential for successful collaborative forecasting, especially for seasonal products. This paper discusses the results of a theoretical simulation and an empirical test of a proposed time-series forecast updating procedure. It involves a two-stage longitudinal case study...... of a toy supply chain. The theoretical simulation involves historical weekly consumer demand data for 122 toy products. The empirical test is then carried out in real-time with 291 toy products. The results show that the proposed forecast updating procedure: 1) reduced forecast errors of the annual...... provided less forecast accuracy improvement and it needed a longer time to achieve relatively acceptable forecast uncertainty....

  11. Short time ahead wind power production forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast. (paper)

  12. Short time ahead wind power production forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

    2016-09-01

    An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

  13. Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast. Felix Adaania Kaba, Victor Amoako Temeng, Peter Arroja Eshun. Abstract. Mine production forecast is pertinent to mining as it serves production goals for a production period. Perseus Mining Ghana Limited (PMGL), Ayanfuri, deterministically forecasts ...

  14. Designing an advanced available-to-promise mechanism compatible with the make-to-forecast production systems through integrating inventory allocation and job shop scheduling with due dates and weighted earliness/tardiness cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Rabbani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the competitive business world, applying a reliable and powerful mechanism to support decision makers in manufacturing companies and helping them save time by considering varieties of effective factors is an inevitable issue. Advanced Available-to-Promise is a perfect tool to design and perform such a mechanism. In this study, this mechanism which is compatible with the Make-to-Forecast production systems is presented. The ability to distinguish between batch mode and real-time mode advanced available-to-promise is one of the unique superiorities of the proposed model. We also try to strengthen this mechanism by integrating the inventory allocation and job shop scheduling by considering due dates and weighted earliness/tardiness cost that leads to more precise decisions. A mixed integer programming (MIP model and a heuristic algorithm according to its disability to solve large size problems are presented. The designed experiments and the obtained results have proved the efficiency of the proposed heuristic method.

  15. Ridge Regression: A tool to forecast wheat area and production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Jamal

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This research study is designed to develop forecasting models for acreage and production of wheat crop for Chakwal district of Rawalpindi region keeping in view the assumptions of OLS estimation. The forecasting models are developed on the basis of 15 years data from 1984-85 to 1998-99 then wheat area and production for next five years from 1999-2000 to 2003-04 is forecasted through the models and compared with the actual figures. After evaluating the accuracy of the models, final models are developed on the basis of 20 years data for the period 1984-85 to 2003-04. These linear models can be used to forecast wheat area and production of next five years. The Urea fertilizer, DAP fertilizer and manures plays a significant role to enhance the production of wheat crop. Number of ploughs in the wheat fields is significant factor to increase the production of wheat crop. Good rains in the month of October and November significantly contributes to increase the production of wheat crop and mean maximum temperature in the month of March is a significant factor to reduce the production of wheat crop.

  16. Overview and forecast on forestry productions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenjun, Zhang

    2007-02-01

    Our world is largely dependent upon the forestry productions. Through the exploitation of forest reserves, we manufacture various industrial products, furniture, and obtain fuel and energy. Forestry productions should be conducted without large-scale deforestation and environmental degradation. In present study we perform a review and forecast analysis on forestry productions worldwide, with the objectives of providing an insight into the trend for several types of forestry productions in the future, and providing referential data for sustainable forestry productions and environmental management. Polynomial functions are used to fit trajectories of forestry productions since 1961 and forecasts during the coming 20 years are given in detail. If the past pattern continues, world fibreboard production would dramatically grow and reach 224,300,000 +/- 44,400,000 m(3) by the year 2020, an increase up to 240.7 to 408.9% as compared to the present level. Roundwood production of the world would change by -55.5 to 70.4% and reach 3,526,600,000 +/- 2,066,800,000 m(3) by 2020. In 2020 world production of sawlogs and veneer logs would change by -100 to 164.6% and reach 1,212,900,000 +/- 1,242,600,000 m(3). Global wood fuel production would change by -68.9 to 1.4% and reach 1,130,900,000 +/- 600,800,000 m(3) by 2020. Forestry productions in developed countries would largely surpass productions in developing countries in the near future. World forestry production grew since 1961 excluding wood fuel. Roundwood and wood fuel account for the critical proportions in the forestry productions. Wood fuel production has being declined and rapid growing of roundwood production has slowed in recent years. Widespread use of regenerative wood substitutes and worldwide afforestation against deforestation will be among the most effective ways to reduce deforestation and environment degradation associated with forestry productions.

  17. Forecasting corn production in Serbia using ARIMA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilić Ivana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural crop production is closely related to climate, as a decisive success factor. Temperature fluctuations and changes in the volume of precipitation are the main factors affecting the growth and development of crops, and, ultimately, the quantity produced. Corn is the most common crop necessary to provide for domestic needs, and a strategic product for export. Production of corn in the period from 1947 to 2014 in Serbia had an oscillatory trend, with significant jumps and falls in production. The subject of this paper is the forecasting of future trends in corn production in Serbia. Building on the subject, the purpose of this paper is to create the model for forecasting future corn production and establishing its trends.

  18. Using analogs to generate production forecasts in Faja

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Lugo, Rolando A. [Repsol (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    In the Carabobol Block, extra heavy oil will be produced by cold production from Miocene Morical Member sands. Many parameters such as pressure, temperature, solution gas oil ratio and viscosity variation significantly impact well productivity; unfortunately little information is available on the Carabobol Block. The aim of this paper is to provide a new methodology for using analog data to develop fluid properties correlations and a future production profile. Data from the analog neighbour field in the Orinoco oil belt was used. A methodology using scatter data was successfully applied for the Carabobol Block and fluid composition, a complete PVT and an analytical forecast were found and confirmed with actual laboratory data and a gross numerical model. This study showed that analog data can be used as a first approach to assess initial reservoir conditions and fluid properties and to generate production forecasts.

  19. The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

    2017-11-01

    Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

  20. Land availability for biofuel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Ximing; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Dingbao

    2011-01-01

    Marginal agricultural land is estimated for biofuel production in Africa, China, Europe, India, South America, and the continental United States, which have major agricultural production capacities. These countries/regions can have 320-702 million hectares of land available if only abandoned and degraded cropland and mixed crop and vegetation land, which are usually of low quality, are accounted. If grassland, savanna, and shrubland with marginal productivity are considered for planting low-input high-diversity (LIHD) mixtures of native perennials as energy crops, the total land availability can increase from 1107-1411 million hectares, depending on if the pasture land is discounted. Planting the second generation of biofuel feedstocks on abandoned and degraded cropland and LIHD perennials on grassland with marginal productivity may fulfill 26-55% of the current world liquid fuel consumption, without affecting the use of land with regular productivity for conventional crops and without affecting the current pasture land. Under the various land use scenarios, Africa may have more than one-third, and Africa and Brazil, together, may have more than half of the total land available for biofuel production. These estimations are based on physical conditions such as soil productivity, land slope, and climate.

  1. Lithium availability and future production outlooks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vikström, Hanna; Davidsson, Simon; Höök, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Review of reserves, resources and key properties of 112 lithium deposits. • Discussions of widely diverging results from recent lithium supply estimates. • Forecasting future lithium production by resource-constrained models. • Exploring implications for future deployment of electric cars. - Abstract: Lithium is a highly interesting metal, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries. Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially from the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The reserve and resource estimates of lithium vary greatly between different studies and the question whether the annual production rates of lithium can meet a growing demand is seldom adequately explained. This study presents a review and compilation of recent estimates of quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discusses the uncertainty and differences between these estimates. Also, mathematical curve fitting models are used to estimate possible future annual production rates. This estimation of possible production rates are compared to a potential increased demand of lithium if the International Energy Agency’s Blue Map Scenarios are fulfilled regarding electrification of the car fleet. We find that the availability of lithium could in fact be a problem for fulfilling this scenario if lithium-ion batteries are to be used. This indicates that other battery technologies might have to be implemented for enabling an electrification of road transports

  2. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianzhou; Dong Yao; Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He

    2011-01-01

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: → Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. → Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. → Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. → We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. → We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  3. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2011-10-15

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: > Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. > Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. > Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. > We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. > We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  4. Application of Discrete EventSimulation in Mine Production Forecast*

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... Mine production forecast is pertinent to mining as it serves production ... Besides the inability of this method to mimic the .... management and truck operators understood the ..... Mining Engineering Handbook, Hartman, H. L..

  5. Effective Heuristics for Capacitated Production Planning with Multiperiod Production and Demand with Forecast Band Refinement

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Kaminsky; Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we extend forecast band evolution and capacitated production modelling to the multiperiod demand case. In this model, forecasts of discrete demand for any period are modelled as bands and defined by lower and upper bounds on demand, such that future forecasts lie within the current band. We develop heuristics that utilize knowledge of demand forecast evolution to make production decisions in capacitated production planning environments. In our computational study we explore the ...

  6. Forecasting Aggregate Productivity using Information from Firm-level Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartelsman, E.J.; Wolf, Z.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of

  7. Marine Text Forecasts and Products Listing

    Science.gov (United States)

    FQPZ23KWNO West Coast 06z, 18z FQAC23KWNO Artic Alaska 06z, 18z Computer-generated extratropical storm surge Water Levels Tsunami Coastal/Lakeshore Hazard Message; Storm Surge Forecasts Satellite Orbit Predictions Update (Storm #1) As required TCUAT2 (alt) Tropical Cyclone Update (Storm #2) As required TCUAT3 (alt

  8. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  9. Canadian crude oil production and supply forecast 2006-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    In order to enable members to plan for pipeline capacity requirements for transporting Canadian crude oil to markets, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) 2006-2020 crude oil production and supply forecast provides a long-range outlook of Canadian crude oil production. It provides a forecast of supply and demand for both western and eastern Canada. Because offshore eastern oil production does not rely on pipeline access to reach markets, the analysis primarily focuses on western Canadian production and supply. Over the next fifteen years, Alberta's oil sands provides the main source of growth in the western Canadian production forecast. A survey of CAPP members encompassing all oil sands projects was conducted. Survey responses reflect both planned and envisioned projects over a fifteen year period, although some of the envisioned projects have been risk adjusted by modifying the potential completion schedules for projects which are deemed more uncertain. Detailed tables are provided on forecast data. Three sets of tables are included to show production, two supply scenarios and a high level assessment of the need for incremental pipeline capacity. The report also discusses delays and risk factors that could slow the pace of oil sands development and the corresponding increase in production being forecast in the base case. 16 tabs

  10. Plutonium production and utilization forecasts in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haijtink, B.

    1976-01-01

    The planned accelerated growth of nuclear energy generation in the near future will lead to a large production of plutonium in the thermal reactors. Therefore, up to 1985, the major part of the available plutonium will be plutonium recovered from spent uranium-metal, particularly in the United Kingdom and in France. Because of the low demand for fuelling the fast breeder reactors within the near future, a surplus of fissile plutonium will be accumulated in Europe. Even if the planned availability of the oxide reprocessing capacity will be delayed with two or three years, a plutonium surplus will still exist in Europe, e.g.; in 1985: 25-20 tons. On longer term, up to 2000, the plutonium production in thermal reactors will be sufficient to meet the estimated demand for fast breeder reactors at their commercial introduction foreseen for the nineties. That means that all the plutonium surplus needs not to be stocked for use in fast breeder reactors later on but could be recycled in thermal reactors. The magnitude of the available fissionable materials give an idea of the importance to promote, on an industrial scale, the plutonium recycling technology

  11. The Possibility Using the Power Production Function of Complex Variable for Economic Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Gennadyevich Svetunkov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of dynamic analysis and forecasting production results using the power production functions of complex variables with real coefficients is considered. This model expands the arsenal of instrumental methods and allows multivariate production forecasts which are unattainable by other methods of real variables as the functions of complex variables simulate the production differently in comparison with the models of real variables. The values of coefficients of the power production functions of complex variables can be calculated for each statistical observation. This allows to consider the change of the coefficients over time, to analyze this trend and predict the values of the coefficients for a given term, thereby to predict the form of the production function, which forecasts the operating results. Thus, the model of the production function with variable coefficients is introduced into the scientific circulation. With this model, the inverse problem of forecasting might be solved, such as the determination of the necessary quantities of labor and capital to achieve the desired operational results. The study is based on the principles of the modern methodology of complex-valued economy, one of its sections is the complex-valued patterns of production functions. In the article, the possibility of economic forecasting is tested on the example of the UK economy. The results of this prediction are compared with the forecasts obtained by other methods, which have led to the conclusion about the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the method of forecasting at the macro levels of production systems. A complex-valued power model of the production function is recommended for the multivariate prediction of sustainable production systems — the global economy, the economies of individual countries, major industries and regions.

  12. Forecasting forest chip energy production in Finland 2008-2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Energy policy measures aim to increase energy production from forest chips in Finland to 10 TWh by year 2010. However, on the regional level production differences are large, and the regional estimates of the potential base of raw materials for the production of forest chips are heterogeneous. In order to analyse the validity of the above target, two methods are proposed to derive forecasts for region-level energy production from forest chips in Finland in the years 2008-2014. The plant-level data from 2003-2007 gives a starting point for a detailed statistical analysis of present and future region-level forest chip production. Observed 2008 regional levels are above the estimated prediction 95% confidence intervals based on aggregation of plant-level time averages. A simple time trend model with fixed-region effects provides accurate forecasts for the years 2008-2014. Forest chip production forecast confidence intervals cover almost all regions for the 2008 levels and the estimates of potential production levels for 2014. The forecast confidence intervals are also derived with re-sampling methods, i.e. with bootstrap methods, to obtain more reliable results. Results confirm that a general materials shortfall is not expected in the near future for forest chip energy production in Finland.

  13. Surrogate reservoir models for CSI well probabilistic production forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saúl Buitrago

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present the construction and use of Surrogate Reservoir Models capable of accurately predicting cumulative oil production for every well stimulated with cyclic steam injection at any given time in a heavy oil reservoir in Mexico considering uncertain variables. The central composite experimental design technique was selected to capture the maximum amount of information from the model response with a minimum number of reservoir models simulations. Four input uncertain variables (the dead oil viscosity with temperature, the reservoir pressure, the reservoir permeability and oil sand thickness hydraulically connected to the well were selected as the ones with more impact on the initial hot oil production rate according to an analytical production prediction model. Twenty five runs were designed and performed with the STARS simulator for each well type on the reservoir model. The results show that the use of Surrogate Reservoir Models is a fast viable alternative to perform probabilistic production forecasting of the reservoir.

  14. Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    (Amstrong, 1994, Bates, 1969, Newbold and Granger, 1974 and Whinkler and Makridakis ... distinct, essential components of inventory management while the random production is first ... To achieve this goal, model parameters are estimated or ... important regression model in forecasting of that nature, hence this study.

  15. Forecast of wind energy production and ensuring required balancing power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulov, M.

    2010-01-01

    The wind energy is gaining larger part of the energy mix around the world as well as in Bulgaria. Having in mind the irregularity of the wind, we are in front of a challenge for management of the power grid in new unknown conditions. The world's experience has proven that there could be no effective management of the grid without forecasting tools, even with small scale of wind power penetration. Application of such tools promotes simple management of large wind energy production and reduction of the quantities of required balancing powers. The share of the expenses and efforts for forecasting of the wind energy is incomparably small in comparison with expenses for keeping additional powers in readiness. The recent computers potential allow simple and rapid processing of large quantities of data from different sources, which provides required conditions for modeling the world's climate and producing sophisticated forecast. (author)

  16. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholam Hossein Hasantash

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

  17. Application of artificial intelligence to forecast hydrocarbon production from shales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palash Panja

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Artificial intelligence (AI methods and applications have recently gained a great deal of attention in many areas, including fields of mathematics, neuroscience, economics, engineering, linguistics, gaming, and many others. This is due to the surge of innovative and sophisticated AI techniques applications to highly complex problems as well as the powerful new developments in high speed computing. Various applications of AI in everyday life include machine learning, pattern recognition, robotics, data processing and analysis, etc. The oil and gas industry is not behind either, in fact, AI techniques have recently been applied to estimate PVT properties, optimize production, predict recoverable hydrocarbons, optimize well placement using pattern recognition, optimize hydraulic fracture design, and to aid in reservoir characterization efforts. In this study, three different AI models are trained and used to forecast hydrocarbon production from hydraulically fractured wells. Two vastly used artificial intelligence methods, namely the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN, are compared to a traditional curve fitting method known as Response Surface Model (RSM using second order polynomial equations to determine production from shales. The objective of this work is to further explore the potential of AI in the oil and gas industry. Eight parameters are considered as input factors to build the model: reservoir permeability, initial dissolved gas-oil ratio, rock compressibility, gas relative permeability, slope of gas oil ratio, initial reservoir pressure, flowing bottom hole pressure, and hydraulic fracture spacing. The range of values used for these parameters resemble real field scenarios from prolific shale plays such as the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and the Niobrara in the United States. Production data consists of oil recovery factor and produced gas-oil ratio (GOR generated from a generic hydraulically

  18. Water availability forecasting for Naryn River using ground-based and satellite snow cover data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Y. Kalashnikova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main source of river nourishment in arid regions of Central Asia is the melting of seasonal snow accu‑ mulated in mountains during the cold period. In this study, we analyzed data on seasonal snow cover by ground‑based observations from Kyrgyzhydromet network, as well as from MODIS satellite imagery for the period of 2000–2015. This information was used to compile the forecast methods of water availability of snow‑ice and ice‑snow fed rivers for the vegetation period. The Naryn river basin was chosen as a study area which is the main tributary of Syrdarya River and belongs to the Aral Sea basin. The representative mete‑ orological stations with ground‑based observations of snow cover were identified and regression analysis between mean discharge for the vegetation period and number of snow covered days, maximum snow depth based on in‑situ data as well as snow cover area based on MODIS images was conducted. Based on this infor‑ mation, equations are derived for seasonal water availability forecasting using multiple linear regression anal‑ ysis. Proposed equations have high correlation coefficients (R = 0.89÷0.92 and  and fore‑ casting accuracy. The methodology was implemented in Kyrgyzhydromet and is used for forecasting of water availability in Naryn basin and water inflow into Toktogul Reservoir.

  19. Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojesen, Mikkel; Skov-Petersen, Hans; Gylling, Morten

    , except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future...... biogas plants....

  20. Electricity production by hydro power plants: possibilities of forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkans, J.; Zicmane, I.

    2004-01-01

    Hydro energy accounts for 17% of global electricity production and is the most important source of renewable energies actively used today, being at the same time the least influential ecologically. Its only disadvantages is that this kind of energy is difficult to forecast, which hinders not only the planning of tariffs, year budgets and investments, but also contractual negotiations in particular month. The paper shows that the forecasting of hydro energy production can be linked to certain natural processes, namely, to the cyclic behaviour observed for water flows of the world's rivers. The authors propose a method according to which the forecasting procedure is performed using the data of observations as signals applied to special digital filters transforming the water flow process into integral and differential forms, which after appropriate treatment are expected again in usual water flow units. For this purpose the water flow integral function is to be divided, by means of spectral analysis, into 'low-frequency' (with a semi-period of 44 years) and 'high-frequency' (4-6 year semi-periods) components, which are of different origin. Each of them should be forecasted separately, with the following summation of the results. In the research it is shown that the cyclic fluctuations of world rivers' water flows are directly associated with variations in the Solar activity. (authors)

  1. Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuell, Kevin K.; Smith, Mathew; Jedlovec, Gary

    2012-01-01

    The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of

  2. Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop

  3. Forecasting Rubber Production Using Intelligent Time Series Analysis to Support Decision Makers

    OpenAIRE

    Subsorn, Panida; Xiao, Jitian; Clayden, Judy

    2010-01-01

    This chapter has investigated the best-fitting forecasting model for national rubber production forecasting for 2007 and 2008. The methods used in this study were based on non-neural network training and neural network training techniques to compare with the actual rubber production data for the best-fitting forecasting model. Hence, neural network training was presented to obtain more accurate forecasts for 2007 and 2008. To our knowledge, this is the preliminary study that brings a new pers...

  4. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  5. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadren, M.

    1998-01-01

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  6. Seasonal Forecasting of Agriculture Gross Domestic Production in Iran: Application of Periodic Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of Iran, has an important role in Gross Domestic Production by providing about 14% of GDP. This study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture GDP using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR, as the new seasonal time series techniques. To address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from March 1988 to July 1989. The collected data was firstly analyzed using periodic unit root test Franses & Paap (2004. The analysis found non-periodic unit root in the seasonal data. Second, periodic seasonal behavior (Boswijk & Franses, 1996 was examined. The results showed that periodic autoregressive model fits agriculture GDP well. This makes an accurate forecast of agriculture GDP possible. Using the estimated model, the future value of quarter agricultural GDP from March 2011 to July 2012was forecasted. With consideration to the fair fit of this model with agricultural GDP, It is recommended to use periodic autoregressive model for the future studies.

  7. Estimation efficiency of usage satellite derived and modelled biophysical products for yield forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolotii, Andrii; Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii; Ostapenko, Vadim; Oliinyk, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    Efficient and timely crop monitoring and yield forecasting are important tasks for ensuring of stability and sustainable economic development [1]. As winter crops pay prominent role in agriculture of Ukraine - the main focus of this study is concentrated on winter wheat. In our previous research [2, 3] it was shown that usage of biophysical parameters of crops such as FAPAR (derived from Geoland-2 portal as for SPOT Vegetation data) is far more efficient for crop yield forecasting to NDVI derived from MODIS data - for available data. In our current work efficiency of usage such biophysical parameters as LAI, FAPAR, FCOVER (derived from SPOT Vegetation and PROBA-V data at resolution of 1 km and simulated within WOFOST model) and NDVI product (derived from MODIS) for winter wheat monitoring and yield forecasting is estimated. As the part of crop monitoring workflow (vegetation anomaly detection, vegetation indexes and products analysis) and yield forecasting SPIRITS tool developed by JRC is used. Statistics extraction is done for landcover maps created in SRI within FP-7 SIGMA project. Efficiency of usage satellite based and modelled with WOFOST model biophysical products is estimated. [1] N. Kussul, S. Skakun, A. Shelestov, O. Kussul, "Sensor Web approach to Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment", in: IGARSS 2013, 21-26 July 2013, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 815-818. [2] F. Kogan, N. Kussul, T. Adamenko, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, O. Kryvobok, A. Shelestov, A. Kolotii, O. Kussul, and A. Lavrenyuk, "Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation, meteorological data and biophysical models," International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, vol. 23, pp. 192-203, 2013. [3] Kussul O., Kussul N., Skakun S., Kravchenko O., Shelestov A., Kolotii A, "Assessment of relative efficiency of using MODIS data to winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine", in: IGARSS 2013, 21-26 July 2013, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 3235 - 3238.

  8. Forecasting Production Losses at a Swedish Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    compared this statistical model with a simpler method that does not rely on a physical icing model. In that method meteorological icing is identified as periods when WRF forecasts clouds and the temperature is below freezing. During these periods it is assumed that there is no production from the turbines...... shown to predict periods of icing at a wind farm in northern Sweden (Davis et al, 2012) with improved skill compared to persistence and threshold models. Based on these results, we have developed a statistical model to estimate the loss of production at the wind park due to these icing periods. We......, however as soon as the cloud goes away in the model we assume production returns to the idealized power curve. One unique aspect of the wind park we are working with is that it is not required to shut down when icing occurs. Therefore, during icing periods production still occurs, but below the idealized...

  9. Forecasting return products in an integrated forward/reverse supply chain utilizing an ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar D. Thresh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Interests in Closed-Loop Supply Chain (CLSC issues are growing day by day within the academia, companies, and customers. Many papers discuss profitability or cost reduction impacts of remanufacturing, but a very important point is almost missing. Indeed, there is no guarantee about the amounts of return products even if we know a lot about demands of first products. This uncertainty is due to reasons such as companies’ capabilities in collecting End-of-Life (EOL products, customers’ interests in returning (and current incentives, and other independent collectors. The aim of this paper is to deal with the important gap of the uncertainties of return products. Therefore, we discuss the forecasting method of return products which have their own open-loop supply chain. We develop an integrated two-phase methodology to cope with the closed-loop supply chain design and planning problem. In the first phase, an Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is presented to handle the uncertainties of the amounts of return product and to determine the forecasted return rates. In the second phase, and based on the results of the first one, the proposed multi-echelon, multi-product, multi-period, closed-loop supply chain network is optimized. The second-phase optimization is undertaken based on using general exact solvers in order to achieve the global optimum. Finally, the performance of the proposed forecasting method is evaluated in 25 periods using a numerical example, which contains a pattern in the returning of products. The results reveal acceptable performance of the proposed two-phase optimization method. Based on them, such forecasting approaches can be applied to real-case CLSC problems in order to achieve more reliable design and planning of the network

  10. Methodology and forecast products for the optimal offering of ancillary services from wind in a market environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre

    . This enables the estimation of return levels below which the extreme wind power forecast error events occur only at a specified rate, e.g. once a month or once every year. The techniques allows extrapolation beyond the available data period. In the study data from 1.5 years is used. It consists of hourly wind...... power production in the two regions of Denmark (DK1 and DK2) and corresponding wind power forecasts. The wind power forecasts are generated using the software WPPT and are based on the outcome of three numerical weather prediction models. They cover horizons from 1 to 42 hours ahead in time...

  11. Increasing the availability of national mapping products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roney, J.I.; Ogilvie, B.C.

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of the means employed by the US Geological Survey to facilitate map usage, covering aspects of project Map Accessibility Program including special rolled and folded map packaging, new market testing, parks and campgrounds program, expanded map dealer program, new booklet-type State sales index and catalog and new USGS map reference code. The USGS is seen as the producer of a tremendous nation-wide inventory of topographic and related map products available in unprecedented types, formats and scales, and as endeavouring to increase access to its products. The new USGS map reference code is appended. -J.C.Stone

  12. Options to Improve the Quality of Wind Generation Output Forecasting with the Use of Available Information as Explanatory Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Magulski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Development of wind generation, besides its positive aspects related to the use of renewable energy, is a challenge from the point of view of power systems’ operational security and economy. The uncertain and variable nature of wind generation sources entails the need for the for the TSO to provide adequate reserves of power, necessary to maintain the grid’s stable operation, and the actors involved in the trading of energy from these sources incur additional of balancing unplanned output deviations. The paper presents the results of analyses concerning the options to forecast a selected wind farm’s output exercised by means of different methods of prediction, using a different range of measurement and forecasting data available on the farm and its surroundings. The analyses focused on the evaluation of forecast errors, and selection of input data for forecasting models and assessment of their impact on prediction quality improvement.

  13. Forecasting seasonal demand : a serious limitation of Winters' forecasting procedure and the added value of product-aggregation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donselaar, van K.H.

    2003-01-01

    The well-known method for forecasting seasonal demand, Winters’ procedure, has a serious drawback: if the relative demand uncertainty increases (e.g. due to larger product assortments) or if the amount of historical demand data decreases (e.g. due to smaller product life cycles), the quality of the

  14. Verification of“Trend-Volatility Model”in Short-Term Forecast of Grain Production Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MI Chang-hong

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The "trend-volatility model" in short-term forecasting of grain production potential was verified and discussed systematically by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014, in 16 typical counties and 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces, of China. The results showed as follows:(1 Size of forecast error reflected the precision of short-term production potential, the main reason of large prediction error was a great amount of high yield farmlands were occupied in developed areas and a great increase of vegetable and fruit planted that made grain yield decreased in a short time;(2 The micro-trend amendment method was a necessary part of "trend-volatility model", which could involve the short-term factors such as meteorological factors, science and technology input, social factors and other effects, while macro-trend prediction could not. Therefore, The micro-trend amendment method could improve the forecast precision.(3 In terms of actual situation in recent years in China, the more developed the areas was, the bigger the volatility of short-term production potential was; For the short-term production potential, the stage of increasing-decreasing-recovering also existed in developed areas;(4 In the terms of forecast precision of short-terms production potential, the scale of national was higher than the scale of province, the scale of province was higher than the scale of district, the scale of district was higher than the scale of county. And it was large differences in precision between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters.

  15. Availability of crop cellulosics for ethanol production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayes, R.D.

    1982-10-01

    Past estimates of cellulosic resources available from Canadian agriculture totalled over 23 million tonnes of cereal grain straw and corn stover residues surplus to soil and animal requirements. A new much reduced estimate, based on four detailed regional studies that also include previously unassessed resources such as chaff, oilseed hulls, and food processing wastes, is suggested. Eleven million tonnes are currently available from all residue sources for energy conversion by different processes. Only five million tonnes are identified as potentially usable in ethanol production plants were they to be constructed. Additional resource opportunities may become available in future from currently underutilized land, especially saline soils, novel processing techniques of conventional grains and forages, innovative cropping systems that may increase the yield of agricultural biomass, and new food/feed/fuel (i.e. multi-purpose) crops such as kochia, milkweed, and Jerusalem artichoke. 27 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  16. A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxuan Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate and compare two common methods, artificial neural networks (ANN and support vector regression (SVR, for predicting energy productions from a solar photovoltaic (PV system in Florida 15 min, 1 h and 24 h ahead of time. A hierarchical approach is proposed based on the machine learning algorithms tested. The production data used in this work corresponds to 15 min averaged power measurements collected from 2014. The accuracy of the model is determined using computing error statistics such as mean bias error (MBE, mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, relative MBE (rMBE, mean percentage error (MPE and relative RMSE (rRMSE. This work provides findings on how forecasts from individual inverters will improve the total solar power generation forecast of the PV system.

  17. Proposal for a strategic planning for the replacement of products in stores based on sales forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassius Tadeu Scarpin

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a proposal for strategic planning for the replacement of products in stores of a supermarket network. A quantitative method for forecasting time series is used for this, the Artificial Radial Basis Neural Networks (RBFs, and also a qualitative method to interpret the forecasting results and establish limits for each product stock for each store in the network. The purpose with this strategic planning is to reduce the levels of out-of-stock products (lack of products on the shelves, as well as not to produce overstocking, in addition to increase the level of logistics service to customers. The results were highly satisfactory reducing the Distribution Center (DC to shop out-of-stock levels, in average, from 12% to about 0.7% in hypermarkets and from 15% to about 1.7% in supermarkets, thereby generating numerous competitive advantages for the company. The use of RBFs for forecasting proved to be efficient when used in conjunction with the replacement strategy proposed in this work, making effective the operational processes.

  18. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  19. The availability of biomass for energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeevalkink, J.A.; Borsboom, N.W.J.; Sikkema, R.

    1997-12-01

    The Dutch energy policy aims at 75 PJ energy production from biomass in the Netherlands by the year 2020. This requires the development of a biomass market for biomass fuels so that suppliers as well as users can sell and buy biomass, respectively. The study concentrates on the contribution that information about biomass supply and demand can make to the realization of such a market for biomass fuels and stimulating its functioning. During the study, an inventory was made of public information on biomass quantities that are expected to become available for energy production in the short term. It was proposed to set up a database that contains information about the supply and suppliers of forest wood (specifically thinnings), (clean) waste wood from wood-processing industries, used timber and green wood waste from public parks. On the basis of rough estimates it can be concluded that these biomass flows account for an approximate annual quantity of 900,000 tonnes of dry biomass, or an annual 16,000 W energy production. This quantity would cover 66% of the goal set for the year 2000 and 20% of the goal set for 2020. Various database models were described and discussed during a workshop which was organized for potentially interested parties so as to find out their interest in and potential support for such an information system. Though the results of the survey conducted earlier suggested otherwise, it turned out that there was only minor interest in an information system, i.e. there was an interest in a survey of the companies involved in biomass supply and demand. In addition, most parties preferred bilateral confidential contacts to contract biomass. The opinion of many parties was that Novem's major tasks were to characterize biomass quality, and to give support to the discussions about the legal framework for using (waste) wood for energy production. It was concluded that at this moment a database must not be set up; in the future, however, there could be a

  20. Antibiotic use in Brazilian broiler and pig production: an indication and forecast of trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokma-Bakker, M.H.; Bondt, N.; Neijenhuis, F.; Mevius, D.J.; Ruiter, S.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    To gain insight in antibiotic use in relation to imported products the current use of antibiotics in pork and broiler production in Brazil are identified and trend forecasting of antibiotic use in the coming 3-5 years is performed.

  1. A production throughput forecasting system in an automated hard disk drive test operation using GRNN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samattapapong, N.; Afzulpurkar, N.

    2016-07-01

    The goal of this paper is to develop a pragmatic system of a production throughput forecasting system for an automated test operation in a hard drive manufacturing plant. The accurate forecasting result is necessary for the management team to response to any changes in the production processes and the resources allocations. In this study, we design a production throughput forecasting system in an automated test operation in hard drive manufacturing plant. In the proposed system, consists of three main stages. In the first stage, a mutual information method was adopted for selecting the relevant inputs into the forecasting model. In the second stage, a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was implemented in the forecasting model development phase. Finally, forecasting accuracy was improved by searching the optimal smoothing parameter which selected from comparisons result among three optimization algorithms: particle swarm optimization (PSO), unrestricted search optimization (USO) and interval halving optimization (IHO). The experimental result shows that (1) the developed production throughput forecasting system using GRNN is able to provide forecasted results close to actual values, and to projected the future trends of production throughput in an automated hard disk drive test operation; (2) An IHO algorithm performed as superiority appropriate optimization method than the other two algorithms. (3) Compared with current forecasting system in manufacturing, the results show that the proposed system’s performance is superior to the current system in prediction accuracy and suitable for real-world application. The production throughput volume is a key performance index of hard disk drive manufacturing systems that need to be forecast. Because of the production throughput forecasting result is useful information for management team to respond to any changing in production processes and resources allocation. However, a practically forecasting system for

  2. Forecasting wind power production from a wind farm using the RAMS model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiriolo, L.; Torcasio, R. C.; Montesanti, S.

    2015-01-01

    of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), whose horizontal resolution over Central Italy is about 25 km at the time considered in this paper. Because wind observations were not available for the site, the power curve for the whole wind farm was derived from the ECMWF wind operational analyses available......The importance of wind power forecast is commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool for grid integration and facilitates the energy trading. This work considers an example of power forecast for a wind farm in the Apennines in Central Italy. The orography around the site is complex...... and the horizontal resolution of the wind forecast has an important role. To explore this point we compared the performance of two 48 h wind power forecasts using the winds predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for the year 2011. The two forecasts differ only for the horizontal resolution...

  3. Forecasting China’s Annual Biofuel Production Using an Improved Grey Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Geng

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biofuel production in China suffers from many uncertainties due to concerns about the government’s support policy and supply of biofuel raw material. Predicting biofuel production is critical to the development of this energy industry. Depending on the biofuel’s characteristics, we improve the prediction precision of the conventional prediction method by creating a dynamic fuzzy grey–Markov prediction model. Our model divides random time series decomposition into a change trend sequence and a fluctuation sequence. It comprises two improvements. We overcome the problem of considering the status of future time from a static angle in the traditional grey model by using the grey equal dimension new information and equal dimension increasing models to create a dynamic grey prediction model. To resolve the influence of random fluctuation data and weak anti-interference ability in the Markov chain model, we improve the traditional grey–Markov model with classification of states using the fuzzy set theory. Finally, we use real data to test the dynamic fuzzy prediction model. The results prove that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of forecast data and can be applied to predict biofuel production. However, there are still some defects in our model. The modeling approach used here predicts biofuel production levels based upon past production levels dictated by economics, governmental policies, and technological developments but none of which can be forecast accurately based upon past events.

  4. Using the SPoRT POES/GOES Hybrid Product in OCONUS Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Matt; Fuell, Kevin; Nelson, Jim

    2014-01-01

    The SPoRT (Short-term Prediction and Research Transition) Program at the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center has been providing unique NASA and NOAA data and techniques to partner Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for ten years. Data are provided in the Decision Support System used by WFO forecasters: AWIPS. For the last couple of years, SPoRT has been producing the POES/GOES Hybrid. This suite of products combines the strength ofl5- minute animations of GOES imagery - providing temporal continuity, with the higher resolution, relatively random availability, of polar orbiting (POES) imagery data. The product was first introduced with only MODIS data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, but recently the VIIRS instrument onboard the Suomi-NPP satellite was added, providing better high-resolution coverage. These products represent SPoRT's efforts to prepare for higher resolution, higher frequency GOES-R imagery - as well as helping to move VIIRS (JPSS) data into the mainstream of weather forecasting. SPoRT generates 5 products for this dataset: Visible, Longwave Infrared (11 micrometers), Shortwave IR (3.7 micrometers), Water Vapor (6.7 micrometers), and Fog (Difference of 11 micrometer and 3.7 micrometer channels). The Water Vapor hybrid product has a Red-Blue-Green image from MODIS inlaid, since it provides even more qualitative information than water vapor alone. Animated examples of the products will be shown in this presentation. While the resolution at nadir of GOES imagery is nominally Han (4km for IR channels), the inlaid polar orbiter imagery has a resolution of 250m (lkm for IR channels). This has tremendous application in the continental US. However, in high latitudes, since the usefulness of GOES degrades poleward rapidly, the contrast of GOES and POES data is stark. The consistent temporal nature of GOES, even though at a reduced resolution at high latitudes, provides basic situational awareness, but the introduction of polar data is very helpful in seeing

  5. The natural gas. Forecast for 2010-2020 (availability, constraints and dependences)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terzian, P.

    1998-01-01

    In this book the author deals with the supply and the demand forecast of gas for 2020 and evaluate the risks of a possible european dependence towards the importations outside of Europe OECD. The following subjects are also considered: the gas and petroleum prices evolution, the supplying reliability, the european regulation and the specific question of the natural gas liquids. (A.L.B.)

  6. Parameters Investigation of Mathematical Model of Productivity for Automated Line with Availability by DMAIC Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Chan Sin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Automated line is widely applied in industry especially for mass production with less variety product. Productivity is one of the important criteria in automated line as well as industry which directly present the outputs and profits. Forecast of productivity in industry accurately in order to achieve the customer demand and the forecast result is calculated by using mathematical model. Mathematical model of productivity with availability for automated line has been introduced to express the productivity in terms of single level of reliability for stations and mechanisms. Since this mathematical model of productivity with availability cannot achieve close enough productivity compared to actual one due to lack of parameters consideration, the enhancement of mathematical model is required to consider and add the loss parameters that is not considered in current model. This paper presents the investigation parameters of productivity losses investigated by using DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control concept and PACE Prioritization Matrix (Priority, Action, Consider, and Eliminate. The investigated parameters are important for further improvement of mathematical model of productivity with availability to develop robust mathematical model of productivity in automated line.

  7. A Decision Optimization Model for Leased Manufacturing Equipment with Warranty under Forecasting Production/Maintenance Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Hajej

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the expensive production equipment, many manufacturers usually lease production equipment with a warranty period during a finite leasing horizon, rather than purchasing them. The lease contract contains the possibility of obtaining an extended warranty for a given additional cost. In this paper, based on the forecasting production/maintenance optimization problem, we develop a mathematical model to study the lease contract with basic and extended warranty based on win-win relationship between the lessee and the lessor. The influence of the production rates in the equipment degradation consequently on the total cost by each side during the finite leasing horizon is stated in order to determine a theoretical condition under which a compromise-pricing zone exists under different possibilities of maintenance policies.

  8. From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

  9. Mean-term forecast of coke production in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukhmylova, G.S.

    1996-01-01

    The causes of decrease in consumption of metallurgical coke in the world in the ninetieth and at the present time are analyzed. Reduction of reliable coke supply sources to the world market is noted. The data on the coke import and export in the world in 1990-1994 are presented and corresponding forecasts for 2000 and 2005 are given

  10. Effects of the uncertainty of energy price and water availability forecasts on the operation of Alpine hydropower reservoir systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Castelletti, A.; Burlando, P.

    2016-12-01

    European energy markets have experienced dramatic changes in the last years because of the massive introduction of Variable Renewable Sources (VRSs), such as wind and solar power sources, in the generation portfolios in many countries. VRSs i) are intermittent, i.e., their production is highly variable and only partially predictable, ii) are characterized by no correlation between production and demand, iii) have negligible costs of production, and iv) have been largely subsidized. These features result in lower energy prices, but, at the same time, in increased price volatility, and in network stability issues, which pose a threat to traditional power sources because of smaller incomes and higher maintenance costs associated to a more flexible operation of power systems. Storage hydropower systems play an important role in compensating production peaks, both in term of excess and shortage of energy. Traditionally, most of the research effort in hydropower reservoir operation has focused on modeling and forecasting reservoir inflow as well as designing reservoir operation accordingly. Nowadays, price variability may be the largest source of uncertainty in the context of hydropower systems, especially when considering medium-to-large reservoirs, whose storage can easily buffer small inflow fluctuations. In this work, we compare the effects of uncertain inflow and energy price forecasts on hydropower production and profitability. By adding noise to historic inflow and price trajectories, we build a set of synthetic forecasts corresponding to different levels of predictability and assess their impact on reservoir operating policies and performances. The study is conducted on different hydropower systems, including storage systems and pumped-storage systems, with different characteristics, e.g., different inflow-capacity ratios. The analysis focuses on Alpine hydropower systems where the hydrological regime ranges from purely ice and snow-melt dominated to mixed snow

  11. Arctic Forecasts Available from Polar Bear Exhibit as an Example of Formal/Informal Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, C. E.; Cervenec, J.

    2012-12-01

    A subset of the general population enjoys and frequents informal education venues, offering an opportunity for lifelong learning that also enhances and supports formal education efforts. The Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) at The Ohio State University collaborated with the Columbus Zoo & Aquarium (CZA) in the development of their Polar Frontier exhibit, from its initial planning to the Grand Opening of the exhibit, through the present. Of course, the addition to the Zoo of polar bears and Arctic fox in the Polar Frontier has been very popular, with almost a 7% increase in visitors in 2010 when the exhibit opened. The CZA and BPRC are now investigating ways to increase the climate literacy impact of the exhibit, and to increase engagement with the topics through follow-on activities. For example, individuals or classes anywhere in the world can check forecasts from the Polar Weather and Research Forecasting model and compare them to observed conditions-- allowing deep investigation into changes in the Arctic. In addition, opportunities exist to adapt the Zoo School experience (affecting several Central Ohio school districts) and/or to enable regular participation through social media such as Facebook, Twitter, and other forms of digital communication. BPRC's sustained engagement with the CZA is an example of a trusted and meaningful partnership where open dialogue exists about providing the best learning experience for visitors. This presentation will share some of the lessons learned from this unique partnership, and strategies that are adopted to move it forward.

  12. Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouyang Wang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC, establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight in aggregate (TPA, TFA, and civilian vehicle number (CVN and explained variables of petrol and diesel consumption. Furthermore, we forecast the future consumer demand for oil products during “The 12th Five Year Plan” (2011–2015 based on the historical data covering from 1985 to 2009, finding that urbanization is the most sensitive factor, with a strong marginal effect on petrol and diesel consumption in this sector. From the viewpoint of prediction interval value, urbanization expresses the lower limit of the predicted results, and CVN the upper limit of the predicted results. Predicted value from other independent variables is in the range of predicted values which display a validation range and reference standard being much more credible for policy makers. Finally, a comparison between the predicted results from autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA and others is made to assess our task.

  13. The management of subsurface uncertainty using probabilistic modeling of life cycle production forecasts and cash flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olatunbosun, O. O.

    1998-01-01

    The subject pertains to the implementation of the full range of subsurface uncertainties in life cycle probabilistic forecasting and its extension to project cash flows using the methodology of probabilities. A new tool has been developed in the probabilistic application of Crystal-Ball which can model reservoir volumetrics, life cycle production forecasts and project cash flows in a single environment. The tool is modular such that the volumetrics and cash flow modules are optional. Production forecasts are often generated by applying a decline equation to single best estimate values of input parameters such as initial potential, decline rate, abandonment rate etc -or sometimes by results of reservoir simulation. This new tool provides a means of implementing the full range of uncertainties and interdependencies of the input parameters into the production forecasts by defining the input parameters as probability density functions, PDFs and performing several iterations to generate an expectation curve forecast. Abandonment rate is implemented in each iteration via a link to an OPEX model. The expectation curve forecast is input into a cash flow model to generate a probabilistic NPV. Base case and sensitivity runs from reservoir simulation can likewise form the basis for a probabilistic production forecast from which a probabilistic cash flow can be generated. A good illustration of the application of this tool is in the modelling of the production forecast for a well that encounters its target reservoirs in OUT/ODT situation and thus has significant uncertainties. The uncertainty in presence and size (if present) of gas cap and dependency between ultimate recovery and initial potential amongst other uncertainties can be easily implemented in the production forecast with this tool. From the expectation curve forecast, a probabilistic NPV can be easily generated. Possible applications of this tool include: i. estimation of range of actual recoverable volumes based

  14. Forecasting short-term wind farm production in complex terrain. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeBlanc, M.

    2005-01-01

    Wind energy forecasting adds financial value to wind farms and may soon become a regulatory requirement. A robust information technology system is essential for addressing industry demands. Various forecasting methodologies for short-term wind production in complex terrain were presented. Numerical weather predictions were discussed with reference to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system site measurements. Forecasting methods using wind speed, direction, temperature and pressure, as well as issues concerning statistical modelling were presented. Model output statistics and neural networks were reviewed, as well as significant components of error. Results from a Garrad Hassan forecaster with a European wind farm were presented, including wind speed evaluation, and forecast horizon for T + 1 hours, T + 12 hours, and T + 36 hours. It was suggested that buy prices often reflect the cost of under-prediction, and that forecasting has more potential where the spread is greatest. Accurate T + 19 hours to T + 31 hours could enable participation in the day-ahead market, which is less volatile and prices are usually better. Estimates of possible profits per annum through the use of GH forecaster power predictions were presented, calculated over and above spilling power to the grid. It was concluded that accurate forecasts combined with certainty evaluation enables the optimization of wind energy in the market, and is applicable to a wide range of weather regimes and terrain types. It was suggested that site feedback is essential for good forecasts at short horizons, and that the value of forecasting is dependent on the market. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting rubber milk production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, R. F.; Nurmawan; Sembiring, S.; Syahputra, M. F.; Fadli

    2018-02-01

    Natural Rubber is classified as the top export commodity in Indonesia. Its high production leads to a significant contribution to Indonesia’s foreign exchange. Before natural rubber ready to be exported to another country, the production of rubber milk becomes the primary concern. In this research, we use adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to do rubber milk production forecasting. The data presented here is taken from PT. Anglo Eastern Plantation (AEP), which has high data variance and range for rubber milk production. Our data will span from January 2009 until December 2015. The best forecasting result is 1,182% in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

  16. Operational forecast products and applications based on WRF/Chem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirtl, Marcus; Flandorfer, Claudia; Langer, Matthias; Mantovani, Simone; Olefs, Marc; Schellander-Gorgas, Theresa

    2015-04-01

    The responsibilities of the national weather service of Austria (ZAMG) include the support of the federal states and the public in questions connected to the protection of the environment in the frame of advisory and counseling services as well as expert opinions. The ZAMG conducts daily Air-Quality forecasts using the on-line coupled model WRF/Chem. The mother domain expands over Europe, North Africa and parts of Russia. The nested domain includes the alpine region and has a horizontal resolution of 4 km. Local emissions (Austria) are used in combination with European inventories (TNO and EMEP) for the simulations. The modeling system is presented and the results from the evaluation of the assimilation of pollutants using the 3D-VAR software GSI is shown. Currently observational data (PM10 and O3) from the Austrian Air-Quality network and from European stations (EEA) are assimilated into the model on an operational basis. In addition PM maps are produced using Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) observations from MODIS in combination with model data using machine learning techniques. The modeling system is operationally evaluated with different data sets. The emphasis of the application is on the forecast of pollutants which are compared to the hourly values (PM10, O3 and NO2) of the Austrian Air-Quality network. As the meteorological conditions are important for transport and chemical processes, some parameters like wind and precipitation are automatically evaluated (SAL diagrams, maps, …) with other models (e.g. ECMWF, AROME, …) and ground stations via web interface. The prediction of the AOT is also important for operators of solar power plants. In the past Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models were used to predict the AOT based on cloud forecasts at the ZAMG. These models do not consider the spatial and temporal variation of the aerosol distribution in the atmosphere with a consequent impact on the accuracy of forecasts especially during clear-sky days

  17. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandrini, S.; Decimi, G.; Hagedorn, R.; Sperati, S.

    2010-09-01

    The wind power forecast of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast is based on a mesoscale meteorological models that provides the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. The corrected wind data are then used as input in the wind farm power curve to obtain the power forecast. These computations require historical time series of wind measured data (by an anemometer located in the wind farm or on the nacelle) and power data in order to be able to perform the statistical analysis on the past. For this purpose a Neural Network (NN) is trained on the past data and then applied in the forecast task. Considering that the anemometer measurements are not always available in a wind farm a different approach has also been adopted. A training of the NN to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has also been performed. The normalized RMSE forecast error seems to be lower in most cases by following the second approach. We have examined two wind farms, one located in Denmark on flat terrain and one located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). In both cases we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by using two or more models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI, HIRLAM). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Moreover the use of a deterministic global model, (e.g. ECMWF deterministic

  18. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  19. Progress toward forecasting product quality and quantity of mammalian cell culture processes by performance-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidberger, Timo; Posch, Christoph; Sasse, Alexandra; Gülch, Carina; Huber, Robert

    2015-01-01

    The production of biopharmaceuticals requires highly sophisticated, complex cell based processes. Once a process has been developed, acceptable ranges for various control parameters are typically defined based on process characterization studies often comprising several dozens of small scale bioreactor cultivations. A lot of data is generated during these studies and usually only the information needed to define acceptable ranges is processed in more detail. Making use of the wealth of information contained in such data sets, we present here a methodology that uses performance data (such as metabolite profiles) to forecast the product quality and quantity of mammalian cell culture processes based on a toolbox of advanced statistical methods. With this performance based modeling (PBM) the final product concentration and 12 quality attributes (QAs) for two different biopharmaceutical products were predicted in daily intervals throughout the main stage process. The best forecast was achieved for product concentration in a very early phase of the process. Furthermore, some glycan isoforms were predicted with good accuracy several days before the bioreactor was harvested. Overall, PBM clearly demonstrated its capability of early process endpoint prediction by only using commonly available data, even though it was not possible to predict all QAs with the desired accuracy. Knowing the product quality prior to the harvest allows the manufacturer to take counter measures in case the forecasted quality or quantity deviates from what is expected. This would be a big step towards real-time release, an important element of the FDA's PAT initiative. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  20. China’s Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xibo Wang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Because of their unique physical and chemical properties, Rare earth elements (REEs perform important functions in our everyday lives, with use in a range of products. Recently, the study of China’s rare earth elements production has become a hot topic of worldwide interest, because of its dominant position in global rare earth elements supply, and an increasing demand for rare earth elements due to the constant use of rare earth elements in high-tech manufacturing industries. At the same time, as an exhaustible resource, the sustainable development of rare earth elements has received extensive attention. However, most of the study results are based on a qualitative analysis of rare earth elements distribution and production capacity, with few studies using quantitative modeling. To achieve reliable results with more factors being taken into consideration, this paper applies the generic multivariant system dynamics model to forecast China’s rare earth elements production trend and Hubbert peak, using Vensim software based on the Hubbert model. The results show that the peak of China’s rare earth elements production will appear by 2040, and that production will slowly decline afterwards. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China’s—and the world’s—rare earth elements market and rare earth-related industries.

  1. Forecasting energy demand and CO{sub 2}-emissions from energy production in the forest industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malinen, H

    1998-12-31

    The purpose of this study was to develops new energy forecasting methods for the forest industry energy use. The scenarios have been the most commonly used forecasts, but they require a lot of work. The recent scenarios, which are made for the forest industry, give a wide range of results; e.g. from 27,8 TWh to 38 TWh for electricity use in 2010. There is a need for more simple and accurate methods for forecasting. The time scale for the study is from 1975 to 2010, i.e. 36 years. The basic data for the study is collected from time period 1975 - 1995. It includes the wood use, production of main product categories and energy use in the forest industry. The factors affecting energy use at both industry level and at mill level are presented. The most probable technology trends, which can have an effect on energy production and use and CO{sub 2}-emissions are studied. Recent forecasts for the forest industry energy use till the year 2010 are referred and analysed. Three alternative forecasting methods are studied more closely. These methods are (a) Regression analysis, (b) Growth curves and (c) Delphi-method. Total electricity demand, share of purchased electricity, total fuel demand and share of process-based biofuels are estimated for the time period 1996 - 2010. The results from the different methods are compared to each other and to the recent scenarios. The comparison is made for the results concerning the energy use and the usefulness of the methods in practical work. The average energy consumption given by the forecasts for electricity was 31,6 TWh and for fuel 6,2 Mtoe in 2010. The share of purchased electricity totalled 73 % and process based fuels 77 %. The figures from 1995 are 22,8 TWh, 5,5 Mtoe, 64 % and 68 % respectively. All three methods were suitable for forecasting. All the methods required less working hours and were easier to use than scenarios. The methods gave results with a smaller deviation than scenarios, e.g. with electricity use in 2010 from

  2. Forecasting energy demand and CO{sub 2}-emissions from energy production in the forest industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malinen, H.

    1997-12-31

    The purpose of this study was to develops new energy forecasting methods for the forest industry energy use. The scenarios have been the most commonly used forecasts, but they require a lot of work. The recent scenarios, which are made for the forest industry, give a wide range of results; e.g. from 27,8 TWh to 38 TWh for electricity use in 2010. There is a need for more simple and accurate methods for forecasting. The time scale for the study is from 1975 to 2010, i.e. 36 years. The basic data for the study is collected from time period 1975 - 1995. It includes the wood use, production of main product categories and energy use in the forest industry. The factors affecting energy use at both industry level and at mill level are presented. The most probable technology trends, which can have an effect on energy production and use and CO{sub 2}-emissions are studied. Recent forecasts for the forest industry energy use till the year 2010 are referred and analysed. Three alternative forecasting methods are studied more closely. These methods are (a) Regression analysis, (b) Growth curves and (c) Delphi-method. Total electricity demand, share of purchased electricity, total fuel demand and share of process-based biofuels are estimated for the time period 1996 - 2010. The results from the different methods are compared to each other and to the recent scenarios. The comparison is made for the results concerning the energy use and the usefulness of the methods in practical work. The average energy consumption given by the forecasts for electricity was 31,6 TWh and for fuel 6,2 Mtoe in 2010. The share of purchased electricity totalled 73 % and process based fuels 77 %. The figures from 1995 are 22,8 TWh, 5,5 Mtoe, 64 % and 68 % respectively. All three methods were suitable for forecasting. All the methods required less working hours and were easier to use than scenarios. The methods gave results with a smaller deviation than scenarios, e.g. with electricity use in 2010 from

  3. Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qi

    2010-03-01

    Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.

  4. Forecasting demand for single-period products : A case study in the apparel industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostard, Julien; Teunter, Ruud; de Koster, Rene

    2011-01-01

    The problem considered is that of forecasting demand for single-period products before the period starts. We study this problem for the case of a mail order apparel company that needs to order its products pre-season. The lack of historical demand data implies that other sources of data are needed.

  5. A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marino Marrocu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available An accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of local wind speed, corresponding generated power and on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, a simple and effective wind power forecast technique, based on the probability distribution mapping of wind speed forecast and observed power data, is presented and it is applied to two turbines located on the island of Borkum (Germany in the North Sea. The wind speed forecast of the ECMWF model at 100 m from the ground is used as the prognostic meteorological parameter. Training procedures are based entirely on relatively short time series of power measurements. Results show that our approach has skills that are similar or better than those obtained using more standard methods when measured with mean absolute error.

  6. Forecasting wheat and barley crop production in arid and semi-arid regions using remotely sensed primary productivity and crop phenology: A case study in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qader, Sarchil Hama; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

    2018-02-01

    Crop production and yield estimation using remotely sensed data have been studied widely, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. In these regions, inter-annual variation in climatic factors (such as rainfall) combined with anthropogenic factors (such as civil war) pose major risks to food security. Thus, an operational crop production estimation and forecasting system is required to help decision-makers to make early estimates of potential food availability. Data from NASA's MODIS with official crop statistics were combined to develop an empirical regression-based model to forecast winter wheat and barley production in Iraq. The study explores remotely sensed indices representing crop productivity over the crop growing season to find the optimal correlation with crop production. The potential of three different remotely sensed indices, and information related to the phenology of crops, for forecasting crop production at the governorate level was tested and their results were validated using the leave-one-year-out approach. Despite testing several methodological approaches, and extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper depicts the difficulty in estimating crop yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. However, more precise estimates of crop production were possible. The result of the current research implies that the date of the maximum vegetation index (VI) offered the most accurate forecast of crop production with an average R 2 =0.70 compared to the date of MODIS EVI (Avg R 2 =0.68) and a NPP (Avg R 2 =0.66). When winter wheat and barley production were forecasted using NDVI, EVI and NPP and compared to official statistics, the relative error ranged from -20 to 20%, -45 to 28% and -48 to 22%, respectively. The research indicated that remotely sensed indices could characterize and forecast crop production more accurately than simple cropping area, which was treated as a null model against which to

  7. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service overview for operational monitoring of current crop conditions and production forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crutchfield, J.

    2016-12-01

    The presentation will discuss the current status of the International Production Assessment Division of the USDA ForeignAgricultural Service for operational monitoring and forecasting of current crop conditions, and anticipated productionchanges to produce monthly, multi-source consensus reports on global crop conditions including the use of Earthobservations (EO) from satellite and in situ sources.United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) International Production AssessmentDivision (IPAD) deals exclusively with global crop production forecasting and agricultural analysis in support of the USDAWorld Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) lockup process and contributions to the World Agricultural Supply DemandEstimates (WASE) report. Analysts are responsible for discrete regions or countries and conduct in-depth long-termresearch into national agricultural statistics, farming systems, climatic, environmental, and economic factors affectingcrop production. IPAD analysts become highly valued cross-commodity specialists over time, and are routinely soughtout for specialized analyses to support governmental studies. IPAD is responsible for grain, oilseed, and cotton analysison a global basis. IPAD is unique in the tools it uses to analyze crop conditions around the world, including customweather analysis software and databases, satellite imagery and value-added image interpretation products. It alsoincorporates all traditional agricultural intelligence resources into its forecasting program, to make the fullest use ofavailable information in its operational commodity forecasts and analysis. International travel and training play animportant role in learning about foreign agricultural production systems and in developing analyst knowledge andcapabilities.

  8. New watershed-based climate forecast products for hydrologists and water managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, S. A.; Wood, A.; Rajagopalan, B.; Lehner, F.; Peng, P.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Werner, K.

    2017-12-01

    Operational sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate predictions have advanced in skill in recent years but are yet to be broadly utilized by stakeholders in the water management sector. While some of the challenges that relate to fundamental predictability are difficult or impossible to surmount, other hurdles related to forecast product formulation, translation, relevance, and accessibility can be directly addressed. These include products being misaligned with users' space-time needs, products disseminated in formats users cannot easily process, and products based on raw model outputs that are biased relative to user climatologies. In each of these areas, more can be done to bridge the gap by enhancing the usability, quality, and relevance of water-oriented predictions. In addition, water stakeholder impacts can benefit from short-range extremes predictions (such as 2-3 day storms or 1-week heat waves) at S2S time-scales, for which few products exist. We present interim results of a Research to Operations (R2O) effort sponsored by the NOAA MAPP Climate Testbed to (1) formulate climate prediction products so as to reduce hurdles to in water stakeholder adoption, and to (2) explore opportunities for extremes prediction at S2S time scales. The project is currently using CFSv2 and National Multi-­Model Ensemble (NMME) reforecasts and forecasts to develop real-time watershed-based climate forecast products, and to train post-processing approaches to enhance the skill and reliability of raw real-time S2S forecasts. Prototype S2S climate data products (forecasts and associated skill analyses) are now being operationally staged at NCAR on a public website to facilitate further product development through interactions with water managers. Initial demonstration products include CFSv2-based bi-weekly climate forecasts (weeks 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4) for sub-regional scale hydrologic units, and NMME-based monthly and seasonal prediction products. Raw model mean skill at these time

  9. Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Won Sang; Choi, Hyo Shin; Sohn, So Young

    2018-01-01

    Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

  10. A Novel Approach for Forecasting Crop Production and Yield Using Remotely Sensed Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R. K.; Budde, M. E.; Senay, G. B.; Rowland, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting crop production in advance of crop harvest plays a significant role in drought impact management, improved food security, stabilizing food grain market prices, and poverty reduction. This becomes essential, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is a critical source of livelihoods, but lacks good quality agricultural statistical data. With increasing availability of low cost satellite data, faster computing power, and development of modeling algorithms, remotely sensed images are becoming a common source for deriving information for agricultural, drought, and water management. Many researchers have shown that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on red and near-infrared reflectance, can be effectively used for estimating crop production and yield. Similarly, crop production and yield have been closely related to evapotranspiration (ET) also as there are strong linkages between production/yield and transpiration based on plant physiology. Thus, we combined NDVI and ET information from remotely sensed images for estimating total production and crop yield prior to crop harvest for Niger and Burkina Faso in West Africa. We identified the optimum time (dekads 23-29) for cumulating NDVI and ET and developed a new algorithm for estimating crop production and yield. We used the crop data from 2003 to 2008 to calibrate our model and the data from 2009 to 2013 for validation. Our results showed that total crop production can be estimated within 5% of actual production (R2 = 0.98) about 30-45 days before end of the harvest season. This novel approach can be operationalized to provide a valuable tool to decision makers for better drought impact management in drought-prone regions of the world.

  11. Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

    2015-12-01

    High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

  12. Model of analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of industrial production and space sector of the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriy Yu. Ivanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective to carry out a comparative analysis of the dynamics of industrial production and the rocket and space industry of Russia. Methods an asynchronous method of harmonic analysis comparative method. Results the forecasts of the development of rocket and space industry for 2015 and 2016 are obtained which are compared with the data of the Ministry of Economic Development and the World Bank of Development. The comparison of the results showed that the analysis and forecast data of the Ministry of Economic Development and the World Bank of Development coincide only partially. The tendency to increase the volumes in rocket and space industry is shown. Scientific novelty the mathematical models are presented for the dynamics of industrial production and the rocket and space industry of the Russian Federation built on the basis of the asynchronous harmonic analysis. The retrospective of the rocketspace complex development is considered. Practical significance using the proposed mathematical models of the dynamics of industrial production and the rocket and space industry of the Russian Federation based on the economy cycles the more accurate forecasts of economic development can be made. nbsp

  13. Description of historical crop calendar data bases developed to support foreign commodity production forecasting project experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, W. L., III (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The content, format, and storage of data bases developed for the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting project and used to produce normal crop calendars are described. In addition, the data bases may be used for agricultural meteorology, modeling of stage sequences and planting dates, and as indicators of possible drought and famine.

  14. Using JPSS Retrievals to Implement a Multisensor, Synoptic, Layered Water Vapor Product for Forecasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Kidder, S. Q.; Fuell, K.; LeRoy, A.; Bikos, D.; Szoke, E.

    2015-12-01

    Forecasters have been using the NOAA operational blended total precipitable water (TPW) product, developed by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), since 2009. Blended TPW has a wide variety of uses related to heavy precipitation and flooding, such as measuring the amount of moisture in an atmospheric river originating in the tropics. But blended TPW conveys no information on the vertical distribution of moisture, which is relevant to a variety of forecast concerns. Vertical profile information is particularly lacking over the oceans for landfalling storms. A blended six-satellite, four-layer, layered water vapor product demonstrated by CIRA and the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) in allows forecasters to see the vertical distribution of water vapor in near real-time. National Weather Service (NWS) forecaster feedback indicated that this new, vertically-resolved view of water vapor has a substantial impact on forecasts. This product uses NOAA investments in polar orbiting satellite sounding retrievals from passive microwave radiances, in particular, the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS). The product currently utilizes data from the NOAA-18 and -19 spacecraft, Metop-A and -B, and the Defense Meteorological Program (DMSP) F18 spacecraft. The sounding instruments onboard the Suomi-NPP and JPSS spacecraft will be cornerstone instruments in the future evolution of this product. Applications of the product to heavy rain cases will be presented and compared to commonly used data such as radiosondes and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) water vapor channel imagery. Research is currently beginning to implement advective blending, where model winds are used to move the water vapor profiles to a common time. Interactions with the NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) centers including the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) and Weather

  15. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  16. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  17. Long-Range Lightning Products for Short Term Forecasting of Tropical Cyclogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Businger, S.; Pessi, A.; Robinson, T.; Stolz, D.

    2010-12-01

    This paper will describe innovative graphical products derived in real time from long-range lightning data. The products have been designed to aid in short-term forecasting of tropical cyclone development for the Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment 2010 (TCS10) held over the western Pacific Ocean from 17 August to 17 October 2010 and are available online at http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/pacnet/tcs10.pl. The long-range lightning data are from Vaisala’s Global Lightning Data 360 (GLD360) network and include time, location, current strength, polarity, and data quality indication. The products currently provided in real time include i. Infrared satellite imagery overlaid with lighting flash locations, with color indication of current strength and polarity (shades of blue for negative to ground and red for positive to ground). ii. A 15x15 degree storm-centered tile of IR imagery overlaid with lightning data as in i). iii. A pseudo reflectivity product showing estimates of radar reflectivity based on lightning rate - rain rate conversion derived from TRMM and PacNet data. iv. A lightning history product that plots each hour of lightning flash locations in a different color for a 12-hour period. v. Graphs of lightning counts within 50 or 300 km radius, respectively, of the storm center vs storm central sea-level pressure. vi. A 2-D graphic showing storm core lightning density along the storm track. The first three products above can be looped to gain a better understanding of the evolution of the lightning and storm structure. Examples of the graphics and their utility will be demonstrated and discussed. Histogram of lightning counts within 50 km of the storm center and graph of storm central pressure as a function of time.

  18. Forecast Model of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product Depending on Financial Instruments of Trade in Energy and Commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samkov T.L.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Methodology of forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP growth for complex socio-economic systems is projected on economic conditions of the Russian Federation. The most important factors affecting GDP change, development of a GDP forecast econometric model for the Russian economy and the methodology of the model use are identified. The model is used as a source of information necessary for the analysis of territorial multi-sectoral objects (ATMO model which we developed. ATMO model is the model of planning regional sectoral production systems of independent corporate participants and can predict their behavior utilizing game approach. Non-systemic "signal" information (GDP growth rate is necessary to change the strategies. The factors for predicting are the primary and secondary financial instruments of trade in energy and raw commodities. The principle of behavioral imitation is introduced for the first time in relation to a class of such tasks. Technology of decisions making corresponds to the knowledge of managers and officials rather than to that of analysts. The forecast model reflects the "ordinary" view of mentioned decision makers on the nature of GDP dependence on trade in specific goods (oil, gas, grain, gold, silver, copper, etc.. Almost any company leader will be able to use this set to forecast GDP as guidelines for further development of the enterprise. The ATMO model makes it possible to influence the economy to achieve macroeconomic goals and gives the opportunity to increase the available volumes of energy resources for export, e.g., for functioning of the emerging gas hub in EU.

  19. An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ke; Feng, Lianyong; Wang, Jianliang; Xiong, Yi; Tverberg, Gail E.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, it has become apparent that oil prices may not rise endlessly. Unconventional oil is likely to be especially affected by low prices because it tends to be high-priced to extract. To estimate the impact prices might have on future Chinese oil production, we develop a model in which only future unconventional oil production is affected by price. We analyze three price scenarios: Stays Low, Best Estimate, and Ever-Rising Prices. In these scenarios, remaining Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR) are estimated to be 10%, 50%, and 90% of remaining Technically Recoverable Resources, respectively. Since oil price can be expected to affect the shape of the extraction curve, we spread estimated URR to year using models that do not assume that future production will ultimately produce a symmetric Hubbert-type curve (Multi-Cycle Generalized Weng Model and Stochastic Resource-Constrained Growth Model). In the Best Estimate Scenario, China's oil production is expected to reach a maximum of 226.79 million tons in 2020. In the Ever-Rising Prices Scenario, China's maximum oil production occurs in 2023. In the Stays Low Scenario, maximum production has already been reached. - Highlights: • China's conventional oil reached a peak in 2010 and has begun to decline. • Unconventional oil production will be especially adversely affected by low prices. • Rising selling price of oil may lead to recession, bringing prices back down. • China's total oil supply appears likely to peak about 2020. • Likely oil production is less than Technically Recoverable Resources.

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) 0-10cm Soil-Moisture Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast 0-10cm soil-moisture data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near...

  1. Phenology Data Products to Support Assessment and Forecasting of Phenology on Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerst, K.; Enquist, C.; Rosemartin, A.; Denny, E. G.; Marsh, L.; Moore, D. J.; Weltzin, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and environmental change. The National Phenology Database maintained by USA-NPN now has over 3.7 million records for plants and animals for the period 1954-2014, with the majority of these observations collected since 2008 as part of a broad, national contributory science strategy. These data have been used in a number of science, conservation and resource management applications, including national assessments of historical and potential future trends in phenology, regional assessments of spatio-temporal variation in organismal activity, and local monitoring for invasive species detection. Customizable data downloads are freely available, and data are accompanied by FGDC-compliant metadata, data-use and data-attribution policies, vetted and documented methodologies and protocols, and version control. While users are free to develop custom algorithms for data cleaning, winnowing and summarization prior to analysis, the National Coordinating Office of USA-NPN is developing a suite of standard data products to facilitate use and application by a diverse set of data users. This presentation provides a progress report on data product development, including: (1) Quality controlled raw phenophase status data; (2) Derived phenometrics (e.g. onset, duration) at multiple scales; (3) Data visualization tools; (4) Tools to support assessment of species interactions and overlap; (5) Species responsiveness to environmental drivers; (6) Spatially gridded phenoclimatological products; and (7) Algorithms for modeling and forecasting future phenological responses. The prioritization of these data products is a direct response to stakeholder needs related to informing management and policy decisions. We anticipate that these products will contribute to broad understanding of plant

  2. Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ediger, Volkan S.; Akar, Sertac; Ugurlu, Berkin

    2006-01-01

    This study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of Turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels. The fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and Turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world. We developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression, ARIMA and SARIMA method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner. The method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness-of-fit and confidence interval, behavior of the curve, and reserves. Different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types. The best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others. Our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached; indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038. However, production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal, in 2024 for natural gas, in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite. The gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000

  3. A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

    2012-01-01

    Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

  4. Availability of lignocellulosic feedstocks for lactic acid production - Feedstock availability, lactic acid production potential and selection criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, R.R.C.

    2013-01-01

    The overall objective of this study is to assess the worldwide availability and suitability of agricultural residues for lactic acid production, based on fermentation of carbohydrates. The study focuses on lignocellulosic biomass that is produced as a by-product of agricultural production. The

  5. Technical and economical availability of radioisotopes production in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima, J.O.V.

    1981-10-01

    The technical and economical availability of radioisotopes production in Brazil by a low power research reactor, are done. The importance of radioisotope utilization and controled radiations, in areas such as medicine, industry and cost evaluation for the production in nuclear reactors. In the cost evaluation of a radioisotope production reactor, the studies developed by the Department of Nuclear Engineering of Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - DEN/UFMG were used. The information analysis justify the technical and economical availability and the necessity of the radioisotopes production in Brazil. (E.G.) [pt

  6. Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianliang; Mohr, Steve; Feng, Lianyong; Liu, Huihui; Tverberg, Gail E.

    2016-01-01

    China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because China has relatively little conventional natural gas supply. In this paper, we first evaluate how much unconventional gas might be available based on an analysis of technically recoverable resources for three types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, coalbed methane and tight gas. We then develop three alternative scenarios of how this extraction might proceed, using the Geologic Resources Supply Demand Model. Based on our analysis, the medium scenario, which we would consider to be our best estimate, shows a resource peak of 176.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2068. Depending on economic conditions and advance in extraction techniques, production could vary greatly from this. If economic conditions are adverse, unconventional natural gas production could perhaps be as low as 70.1 bcm, peaking in 2021. Under the extremely optimistic assumption that all of the resources that appear to be technologically available can actually be recovered, unconventional production could amount to as much as 469.7 bcm, with peak production in 2069. Even if this high scenario is achieved, China’s total gas production will only be sufficient to meet China’s lowest demand forecast. If production instead matches our best estimate, significant amounts of natural gas imports are likely to be needed. - Highlights: • A comprehensive investigation on China’s unconventional gas resources is presented. • China’s unconventional gas production is forecast under different scenarios. • Unconventional gas production will increase rapidly in high scenario. • Achieving the projected production in high scenario faces many challenges. • The increase of China’s unconventional gas production cannot solve its gas shortage.

  7. A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maggio, G.; Cacciola, G.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1 Gb/year.

  8. Production function application attempt in electricity generation forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamrat, W.; Augusiak, A.

    1996-01-01

    A modified Cobb-Douglas production function is applied to evaluate level of electricity generation for medium and long term prognosis (up to 2010) in an easy and simple way. The test calculations have been done for hard coal fired power plants, based on generation data supplied in Main Statistical Office of Poland publications.The model of electricity generation is defined using data on capital of a typical productivity power plant and its employment for time series 1980-90. The test calculation results based on the parameters of Rosenbroock's optimization procedure of electricity generation model are presented. The method described is distinguished for its high accuracy as compared to classical methods despite the relatively short time series. It is suitable for studies in electricity generation policy . 1 tab

  9. MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the “Present MAG4” technique and each of three alternative techniques, called “McIntosh Active-Region Class,” “Total Magnetic Flux,” and “Next MAG4.” We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Key Points Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux PMID:26213517

  10. Precipitation observations for operational flood forecasting in Scotland: Data availability, limitations and the impact of observational uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David

    2017-04-01

    The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to

  11. Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Xu; Zhang, Baosheng; Feng, Lianyong [The School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping, Beijing (China); Hoeoek, Mikael [Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2010-07-15

    As China' largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China, this paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0 million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3 million in the base case scenario and 3033.3 million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6 million tons in 2007 to 8.0 million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields. (author)

  12. Food production & availability--essential prerequisites for sustainable food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, M S; Bhavani, R V

    2013-09-01

    Food and nutrition security are intimately interconnected, since only a food based approach can help in overcoming malnutrition in an economically and socially sustainable manner. Food production provides the base for food security as it is a key determinant of food availability. This paper deals with different aspects of ensuring high productivity and production without associated ecological harm for ensuring adequate food availability. By mainstreaming ecological considerations in technology development and dissemination, we can enter an era of evergreen revolution and sustainable food and nutrition security. Public policy support is crucial for enabling this.

  13. Downgrading recent estimates of land available for biofuel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Steffen; See, Linda; van der Velde, Marijn; Nalepa, Rachel A; Perger, Christoph; Schill, Christian; McCallum, Ian; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Kraxner, Florian; Cai, Ximing; Zhang, Xiao; Ortner, Simone; Hazarika, Rubul; Cipriani, Anna; Di Bella, Carlos; Rabia, Ahmed H; Garcia, Alfredo; Vakolyuk, Mar'yana; Singha, Kuleswar; Beget, Maria E; Erasmi, Stefan; Albrecht, Franziska; Shaw, Brian; Obersteiner, Michael

    2013-02-05

    Recent estimates of additional land available for bioenergy production range from 320 to 1411 million ha. These estimates were generated from four scenarios regarding the types of land suitable for bioenergy production using coarse-resolution inputs of soil productivity, slope, climate, and land cover. In this paper, these maps of land availability were assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. Samples from these maps were selected and crowdsourcing of Google Earth images was used to determine the type of land cover and the degree of human impact. Based on this sample, a set of rules was formulated to downward adjust the original estimates for each of the four scenarios that were previously used to generate the maps of land availability for bioenergy production. The adjusted land availability estimates range from 56 to 1035 million ha depending upon the scenario and the ruleset used when the sample is corrected for bias. Large forest areas not intended for biofuel production purposes were present in all scenarios. However, these numbers should not be considered as definitive estimates but should be used to highlight the uncertainty in attempting to quantify land availability for biofuel production when using coarse-resolution inputs with implications for further policy development.

  14. Mapping a product-service-system delivering defence avionics availability

    OpenAIRE

    Settanni, E.; Thenent, N.; Newnes, L.; Parry, G.; Goh, Y. M.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term support agreements such as availability-based contracts are often associated with the servitization of business models in such sectors as defence aerospace. In practice, there is no unambiguous way of linking availability and service outcomes from an operational perspective; rather, the focus tends to be placed almost exclusively on product-related metrics. To address this gap, this paper outlines a conceptual model of how advanced service outcomes should be delivered under an avail...

  15. Measuring on-shelf availability of FMCG products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Technological development and the process of globalization influence the increase of customers' awareness. In these circumstances they are becoming more demanding, expecting retailers to offer them the right product at the right time and at the right place. The result is one of the basic tasks of retailers, which reflects in providing an adequate level of product availability in retail stores. In order to prevent the stock-out situation, special attention should be dedicated to its identification and measurement. These operations are very important for establishing and implementing other various measures for increasing product availability and thus sales and competitiveness of retail companies. In this regard, besides theoretical considerations of product availability, we presented the basic methods for its measurement. Also, by using the sample of six Fast Moving Consumer goods categories, we applied the method based on the analysis of POS data. In addition to identifying the out-of-stock rates, we confirmed the results of other studies that product availability varies among different categories and retail stores.

  16. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream

  17. Production of 177Lu for targeted radionuclide therapy: Available options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dah, Ashutosh; Pillai, Maroor Raghavan Ambikalmajan; Knapp, Furn F. Jr.

    2015-01-01

    This review provides a comprehensive summary of the production of 177 Lu to meet expected future research and clinical demands. Availability of options represents the cornerstone for sustainable growth for the routine production of adequate activity levels of 177 Lu having the required quality for preparation of a variety of 177 Lu-labeled radiopharmaceuticals. The tremendous prospects associated with production of 177 Lu for use in targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) dictate that a holistic consideration should evaluate all governing factors that determine its success. While both “direct” and “indirect” reactor production routes offer the possibility for sustainable 177 Lu availability, there are several issues and challenges that must be considered to realize the full potential of these production strategies. This article presents a mini review on the latest developments, current status, key challenges and possibilities for the near future. A broad understanding and discussion of the issues associated with 177 Lu production and processing approaches would not only ensure sustained growth and future expansion for the availability and use of 177 Lu-labeled radiopharmaceuticals, but also help future developments

  18. Space Weather Products and Tools Used in Auroral Monitoring and Forecasting at CCMC/SWRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Key points discussed in this chapter are (1) the importance of aurora research to scientific advances and space weather applications, (2) space weather products at CCMC that are relevant to aurora monitoring and forecasting, and (3) the need for more effort from the whole community to achieve a better and long-lead-time forecast of auroral activity. Aurora, as manifestations of solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling that occurs in a region of space that is relatively easy to access for sounding rockets, satellites, and other types of observational platforms, serves as a natural laboratory for studying the underlying physics of the complex system. From a space weather application perspective, auroras can cause surface charging of technological assets passing through the region, result in scintillation effects affecting communication and navigation, and cause radar cluttering that hinders military and civilian applications. Indirectly, an aurora and its currents can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on the ground, which poses major concerns for the wellbeing and operation of power grids, particularly during periods of intense geomagnetic activity. In addition, accurate auroral forecasting is desired for auroral tourism. In this chapter, we first review some of the existing auroral models and discuss past validation efforts. Such efforts are crucial in transitioning a model(s) from research to operations and for further model improvement and development that also benefits scientific endeavors. Then we will focus on products and tools that are used for auroral monitoring and forecasting at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). As part of the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center), SWRC has been providing space weather services since 2010.

  19. Spice Products Available to The Planetary Science Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acton, Charles

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents the availability of SPICE products to the Planetary Science Community. The topics include: 1) What Are SPICE Data; 2) SPICE File Types; 3) SPICE Software; 4) Examples of What Can Be Computed Using SPICE Data and Software; and 5) SPICE File Avalability.

  20. Global Water Availability and Requirements for Future Food Production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Hoff, H.; Biemans, H.; Fader, M.; Waha, K.

    2011-01-01

    This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was

  1. A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiévet, L.; Forró, Z.; Cauwels, P.; Sornette, D.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production. - Highlights: • Two step methodology to forecast a countries oil production. • Nonlinear extrapolation of the performance of individual fields. • Stochastic model of the frequency of future discoveries. • Backtest starting in 2008 of the methodology. • Improvement upon standard extrapolation of aggregate production

  2. A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

  3. Production of Biodiesel from Locally Available Spent Vegetable Oils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Mostafa Al Naggar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The depletion of fossil fuels prompted considerable research to find alternative fuels. Due its environmental benefits and renewable nature the production of biodiesel has acquired increasing importance with a view to optimizing the production procedure and the sources of feedstock. Millions of liters of waste frying oil are produced from local restaurants and houses every year, most are discarded into sewage systems causing damage to the networks.  This study is intended to consider aspects related to the feasibility of the production of biodiesel from waste frying oils which will solve the problem of waste frying oil pollution and reduce the cost of biodiesel production.This research studies the conversion of locally available spent vegetable oils of different origins and with different chemical compositions into an environmentally friendly fuel. The biodiesel production requirements by base catalyzed trans-esterification process for the different feed stocks are determined according to the measured physical properties. The quality of the produced biodiesel is compared to petro diesel in terms of established standard specifications.

  4. A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianliang; Feng Lianyong; Zhao Lin; Snowden, Simon; Wang Xu

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers. - Highlights: ► Hubbert model and Generalized Weng model are introduced and compared in this article. ► We conclude each model's characteristic and scopes and conditions of applicable. ► We get the same peak production and time of world's oil by applying two models. ► Multicyclic Generalized Weng model is proven slightly better than Hubbert model.

  5. Intercomparison of different operational oceanographic forecast products in the CMEMS IBI area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, Pablo; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Amo-Baladrón, Arancha; Aznar, Roland; De Pascual, Alvaro; Levier, Bruno; Bowyer, Peter; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Salon, Stefano; Tonani, Marina; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2017-04-01

    The development of skill assessment software packages and dedicated web applications is a relatively novel theme in operational oceanography. Within the CMEMS IBI-MFC, the quality of IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland) forecast products is assessed by means of NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) web-based tool. The validation of IBI against independent in situ and remote-sensing measurements is routinely conducted to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Noticeable efforts are in progress to define meaningful skill scores and statistical metrics to quantitatively assess the quality and reliability of the IBI model solution. Likewise, the IBI-MFC compares the IBI forecast products with other model solutions by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on overlapping areas at diverse timescales. In this context, NARVAL web tool already includes a specific module to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of IBI versus other CMEMS operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs). In particular, the IBI physical ocean solution is compared against the CMEMS MED and NWS OOFSs. These CMEMS regional services delivered for the Mediterranean and the North West Shelves include data assimilation schemes in their respective operational chains and generate analogous ocean forecast products to the IBI ones. A number of physical parameters (i.e. sea surface temperature, salinity and current velocities) are evaluated through NARVAL on a daily basis in the overlapping areas existing between these three regional systems. NARVAL is currently being updated in order to extend this intercomparison of ocean model parameters to the biogeochemical solutions provided by the aforementioned OOFSs. More specifically, the simulated chlorophyll concentration is evaluated over several subregions of particular concern by using as benchmark the CMEMS satellite-derived observational products. In addition to this IBI comparison against other regional CMEMS products on overlapping areas, a

  6. Factors controlling Eucalyptus productivity: How water availability and stand structure alter production and carbon allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan; Jose Luiz Stape; Dan Binkley; Sebastiao Fonseca; Rodolfo A. Loos; Ernesto N. Takahashi; Claudio R. Silva; Sergio R. Silva; Rodrigo E. Hakamada; Jose Mario Ferreira; Augusto M. N. Lima; Jose Luiz Gava; Fernando P. Leite; Helder B. Andrade; Jacyr M. Alves; Gualter G. C. Silva

    2010-01-01

    Wood production varies substantially with resource availability, and the variation in wood production can result from several mechanisms: increased photosynthesis, and changes in partitioning of photosynthesis to wood production, belowground flux, foliage production or respiration. An understanding of the mechanistic basis for patterns in wood production...

  7. Production forecasting and economic evaluation of horizontal wells completed in natural fractured reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. D.

    1996-01-01

    A technique for optimizing recovery of hydrocarbons from naturally fractured reservoirs using horizontal well technology was proposed. The technique combines inflow performance analysis, production forecasting and economic considerations, and is based on material balance analysis and linear approximations of reservoir fluid properties as functions of reservoir pressure. An economic evaluation model accounting for the time value of cash flow, interest and inflation rates, is part of the package. Examples of using the technique have been demonstrated. The method is also applied to a gas well producing from a horizontal wellbore intersecting discrete natural fractures. 11 refs., 2 tabs,. 10 figs

  8. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  9. FLUORIDE CONTENT OF COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE SOY MILK PRODUCTS IN THAILAND.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rirattanapong, Opas; Rirattanapong, Praphasri

    2016-01-01

    Abstract. In Thailand, the consumption of soy milk products is common but there is limited data about their fluoride content. The purpose of this study was to es- timate the fluoride content of soy milk products available in Thailand. Fluoride content was determined for 76 brands of soy milk using a F-ion-specific electrode. The fluoride concentrations ranged from 0.01 to 3.78 μg/ml. The fluoride content was not related to sugar content, soy bean content or the sterilization process. Among 3 brands of soy milk containing tea powder extract, the fluoride content was high (1.25 to 3.78 μg/ml). Most brands of soy milk tested in our study had fluoride content below the optimal daily intake but brands containing tea powder extract if consumed by children may increase their risk for fluorosis.

  10. Health workforce in India: assessment of availability, production and distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazarika, Indrajit

    2013-01-01

    India faces an acute shortage of health personnel. Together with inequalities in distribution of health workers, this shortfall impedes progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The aim of this study was to assess health-workforce distribution, identify inequalities in health-worker provision and estimate the impact of this maldistribution on key health outcomes in India. Health-workforce availability and production were assessed by use of year-end data for 2009 obtained from the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Inequalities in the distribution of doctors, dentists, nurses and midwives were estimated by use of the Gini coefficient and the relation between health-worker density and selected health outcomes was assessed by linear regression. Inequalities in the availability of health workers exist in India. Certain states are experiencing an acute shortage of health personnel. Inequalities in the distribution of health workers are highest for doctors and dentists and have a significant effect on health outcomes. Although the production of health workers has expanded greatly in recent years, the problems of imbalances in their distribution persist. As India seeks to achieve universal health coverage by 2020, the realization of this goal remains challenged by the current lack of availability and inequitable distribution of appropriately trained, motivated and supported health workers.

  11. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  12. Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

    This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The

  13. High availability based on production information systems research and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Weiping

    2010-01-01

    Through the presentation of the production information system application deployment in Qinshan Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., combined with CEAS failure to deal with, respectively, in the server (operating system), database and application software on-going monitoring and tuning of the actual cases are discussed: For the system to maintain a high availability, performance and security, not only on the server (operating system) for rational allocation and deployment, but also the need for database and application software to optimize the well-designed and sustained. (authors)

  14. Development of Product Availability Monitoring System In Production Unit In Automotive Component Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartono, Rachmad; Raharno, Sri; Yuwana Martawirya, Yatna; Arthaya, Bagus

    2018-03-01

    This paper described a methodology to monitor the availability of products in a production unit in the automotive component industry. Automotive components made are automotive components made through sheet metal working. Raw material coming into production unit in the form of pieces of plates that have a certain size. Raw materials that come stored in the warehouse. Data of raw each material in the warehouse are recorded and stored in a data base system. The material will then undergo several production processes in the production unit. When the material is taken from the warehouse, material data are also recorded and stored in a data base. The data recorded are the amount of material, material type, and date when the material is out of the warehouse. The material coming out of the warehouse is labeled with information related to the production processes that the material must pass. Material out of the warehouse is a product will be made. The products have been completed, are stored in the warehouse products. When the product is entered into the product warehouse, product data is also recorded by scanning the barcode contained on the label. By recording the condition of the product at each stage of production, we can know the availability of the product in a production unit in the form of a raw material, the product being processed and the finished product.

  15. Impacts of fire and climate change on long-term nitrogen availability and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melissa S. Lucash; Robert M. Scheller; Alec M. Kretchun; Kenneth L. Clark; John. Hom

    2014-01-01

    Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study...

  16. Developmental Vitamin D Availability Impacts Hematopoietic Stem Cell Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Cortes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Vitamin D insufficiency is a worldwide epidemic affecting billions of individuals, including pregnant women and children. Despite its high incidence, the impact of active vitamin D3 (1,25(OHD3 on embryonic development beyond osteo-regulation remains largely undefined. Here, we demonstrate that 1,25(OHD3 availability modulates zebrafish hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC production. Loss of Cyp27b1-mediated biosynthesis or vitamin D receptor (VDR function by gene knockdown resulted in significantly reduced runx1 expression and Flk1+cMyb+ HSPC numbers. Selective modulation in vivo and in vitro in zebrafish indicated that vitamin D3 acts directly on HSPCs, independent of calcium regulation, to increase proliferation. Notably, ex vivo treatment of human HSPCs with 1,25(OHD3 also enhanced hematopoietic colony numbers, illustrating conservation across species. Finally, gene expression and epistasis analysis indicated that CXCL8 (IL-8 was a functional target of vitamin D3-mediated HSPC regulation. Together, these findings highlight the relevance of developmental 1,25(OHD3 availability for definitive hematopoiesis and suggest potential therapeutic utility in HSPC expansion.

  17. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  18. Boron availability to plants from coal combustion by-products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukier, U.; Sumner, M.E.

    1996-01-01

    Agronomic use of coal combustion by-products is often associated with boron (B) excess in amended soils and subsequently in plants. A greenhouse study with corn (Zea mays L.) as test plant was conducted to determine safe application rates of five fly ashes and one flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FDG). All by-products increased soil and corn tissue B concentration, in some cases above toxicity levels which are 5 mg hot water soluble B (hwsB)kg -1 soil and 100 mg B kg -1 in corn tissue. Acceptable application rates varied from 4 to 100 Mg ha -1 for different by-products. Leaching and weathering of a high B fly ash under ponding conditions decreased its B content and that of corn grown in fly ash amended soil, while leaching of the same fly ash under laboratory conditions increased fly ash B availability to corn in comparison to the fresh fly ash. Hot water soluble B in fly ash or FDG amended soil correlated very well with corn tissue B. Hot water soluble B in fly ash amended soil could be predicted based on soil pH and B solubility in ash at different pH values but not so in the case of FDG. Another greenhouse study was conducted to compare the influence of FDG and Ca(OH 2 ) on B concentration in spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) leaves grown in soil amended with the high B fly ash. The Ca(OH) 2 significantly decreased tissue B content, while FDG did not affect B uptake from fly ash amended soil. 41 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  19. Streamlining On-Demand Access to Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Data Products for Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, J. D.; Tislin, D.

    2017-12-01

    Observations from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) support National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, whose Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Data Delivery (DD) will access JPSS data products on demand from the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Product Distribution and Access (PDA) service. Based on the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Service, this on-demand service promises broad interoperability and frugal use of data networks by serving only the data that a user needs. But the volume, velocity, and variety of JPSS data products impose several challenges to such a service. It must be efficient to handle large volumes of complex, frequently updated data, and to fulfill many concurrent requests. It must offer flexible data handling and delivery, to work with a diverse and changing collection of data, and to tailor its outputs into products that users need, with minimal coordination between provider and user communities. It must support 24x7 operation, with no pauses in incoming data or user demand; and it must scale to rapid changes in data volume, variety, and demand as new satellites launch, more products come online, and users rely increasingly on the service. We are addressing these challenges in order to build an efficient and effective on-demand JPSS data service. For example, on-demand subsetting by many users at once may overload a server's processing capacity or its disk bandwidth - unless alleviated by spatial indexing, geolocation transforms, or pre-tiling and caching. Filtering by variable (/ band / layer) may also alleviate network loads, and provide fine-grained variable selection; to that end we are investigating how best to provide random access into the variety of spatiotemporal JPSS data products. Finally, producing tailored products (derivatives, aggregations) can boost flexibility for end users; but some tailoring operations may impose significant server loads

  20. 75 FR 29155 - Publicly Available Consumer Product Safety Information Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-24

    ... consumer product incident reports involving a description of incidents related to the use of consumer... consumer product must include a word or phrase sufficient to distinguish a product identified in a report... consumer product; or understand the relationship between the submitter of a report of harm and the victim...

  1. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

  2. Uranium-production forecasting: the simulation of a South African gold mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boydell, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    A computer program is described that estimates the amount of uranium that will be produced from a mine as a co-product of gold subject to a changing economic environment. The program makes use of two models. The first simulates activities underground, whereas the second simulates the performance of processing plant on the surface. The combination of these models generates a description of the flow of ore from stopes and from development, through hoisting, sorting, and the metallurgical plant to the despatch of saleable product. The total production of uranium to the end of the life of the mine constitutes the uranium reserve. The effects on production forecasts and reserve estimates of future trends in cost and price factors are illustrated by results generated from the application of the program to a typical South African mine producing gold and uranium. The graphs presented show that South Africa's future uranium production from underground sources is critically dependent on the gold price in the years ahead. (author)

  3. How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornes, John E.; Stephenson, David B.

    2001-09-01

    In order to decide whether or not a weather service supplier is giving good value for money we need to monitor the quality of the forecasts and the use that is made of the forecasts to estimate their value. A number of verification statistics are examined to measure the quality of forecasts - including Miss Rate, False Alarm Rate, the Peirce Skill Score and the Odds Ratio Skill Score - and a means of testing the significance of these values is presented. In order to assess the economic value of the forecasts a value index is suggested that takes into account the cost-loss ratio and forecast errors. It is suggested that a combination of these quality and value statistics could be used by weather forecast customers to choose the best forecast provider and to set limits for performance related contracts.

  4. A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Xu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy return on investment (EROI and net energy are useful metrics for analyzing energy production physically rather than monetarily. However, these metrics are not widely applied in China. In this study, we forecast the Daqing oilfield’s EROI from 2013 to 2025 using existing data for crude oil and natural gas production and the basic rules of EROI. Unfortunately, our calculations indicate that the oilfield’s EROI will continuously decline from 7.3 to 4.7, and the associated net energy will continuously decline from 1.53 × 1012 MJ to 1.25 × 1012 MJ. If China’s energy intensity does not decline as planned in the next ten years, then the EROI of Daqing will be even lower than our estimates. Additionally, relating the EROI to the monetary return on investment (MROI in a low production and high intensity scenario, Daqing’s EROI will decline to 2.9 and its MROI will decline to 1.8 by 2025. If the “law of minimum EROI” and the assumed “minimum MROI” are taken into account, then we estimate that both energy pressure and economic pressure will restrict Daqing’s production by 2025.

  5. Recent advances in operational seasonal forecasting in South Africa: Models, infrastructure and networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The various institutions involved with seasonal forecast development and production are discussed. New modelling approaches and the establishment of infrastructures to improve forecast dissemination are discussed....

  6. Succeeding in deep water by combining technology qualification and production forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussain, A.; Oiungen, B.; Raposo, C. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    All the easy oil and gas is gone, and, as a result the Oil and Gas industry is continuously targeting deeper and more remote fields. The exploration and development of deep water oil and gas fields is associated with enormous costs and multiple uncertainties with regard to equipment reliability and performance. Proper risk management can be used to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties thereby helping to ensure optimal business performance of the future assets, as well as helping the decision maker target investment towards areas where the financial impact will be the greatest. This paper reviews the principles of Technology Qualification and Production Forecasting methodology, both of which are risk management solutions with a proven track record for deep water field developments. (author)

  7. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  8. The Importance of Phytoplankton Biomolecule Availability for Secondary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina T. Peltomaa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The growth and reproduction of animals is affected by their access to resources. In aquatic ecosystems, the availability of essential biomolecules for filter-feeding zooplankton depends greatly on phytoplankton. Here, we analyzed the biochemical composition, i.e., the fatty acid, sterol and amino acid profiles and concentrations as well as protein, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus content of 17 phytoplankton monocultures representing the seven most abundant phytoplankton classes in boreal and sub-arctic lakes. To examine how the differences in the biochemical composition between phytoplankton classes affect their nutritional quality for consumers, we assessed the performance of Daphnia, on these diets. Furthermore, we defined the most important biomolecules regulating the somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia, expecting that higher concentrations of certain biomolecules are needed for reproduction than for growth. Finally, we combined these results with phytoplankton field data from over 900 boreal and sub-arctic lakes in order to estimate whether the somatic growth of Daphnia is sterol-limited when the natural phytoplankton communities are cyanobacteria-dominated. Our analysis shows that Daphnia grows best with phytoplankton rich in sterols, ω-3 fatty acids, protein, and amino acids. Their reproduction follows food sterol and ω-3 concentration as well as C:P-ratio being two times higher in Daphnia feeding on cryptophytes than any other diet. Interestingly, we found that a high dietary ω-6 fatty acid concentration decreases both somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia. When combined with phytoplankton community composition field data, our results indicate that zooplankton is constantly limited by sterols in lakes dominated by cyanobacteria (≥40% of total phytoplankton biomass, and that the absence of cryptophytes can severely hinder zooplankton production in nature.

  9. Nitrogen-Use Efficiency, Nitrous Oxide Emissions, and Cereal Production in Brazil: Current Trends and Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Marcel Viana; da Cunha, Dênis Antônio; de Matos Carlos, Sabrina; Costa, Marcos Heil

    2015-01-01

    The agriculture sector has historically been a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. Although the use of synthetic fertilizers is one of the most common widespread agricultural practices, over-fertilization can lead to negative economic and environmental consequences, such as high production costs, depletion of energy resources, and increased GHG emissions. Here, we provide an analysis to understand the evolution of cereal production and consumption of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in Brazil and to correlate N use efficiency (NUE) with economic and environmental losses as N2O emissions. Our results show that the increased consumption of N fertilizers is associated with a large decrease in NUE in recent years. The CO2 eq. of N2O emissions originating from N fertilization for cereal production were approximately 12 times higher in 2011 than in 1970, indicating that the inefficient use of N fertilizers is directly related to environmental losses. The projected N fertilizer forecasts are 2.09 and 2.37 million ton for 2015 and 2023, respectively. An increase of 0.02% per year in the projected NUE was predicted for the same time period. However, decreases in the projected CO2 eq. emissions for future years were not predicted. In a hypothetical scenario, a 2.39% increase in cereal NUE would lead to $ 21 million savings in N fertilizer costs. Thus, increases in NUE rates would lead not only to agronomic and environmental benefits but also to economic improvement.

  10. Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Boqiang; Wang Ting

    2012-01-01

    China's natural gas consumption has increased rapidly in recent years making China a net gas importer. As a nonrenewable energy, the gas resource is exhaustible. Based on the forecast of this article, China's gas production peak is likely to approach in 2022. However, China is currently in the industrialization and urbanization stage, and its natural gas consumption will persistently increase. With China's gas production peak, China will have to face a massive expansion in gas imports. As the largest developing country, China's massive imports of gas will have an effect on the international gas market. In addition, as China's natural gas price is still controlled by the government and has remained at a low level, the massive imports of higher priced gas will exert great pressure on China's gas price reform. - Highlights: ► We figured out the natural gas production peak of China. ► We predict the import trends of natural gas of China. ► We study the international and national impacts of China's increasing import of gas. ► It is important for China to accelerate price reformation of natural gas.

  11. The availability of processed fruit products and their contents of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    fruit, poverty and post-harvest losses due to lack of skills for processing and storage. The objectives of this research were to survey household consumption of foods especially processed fruit products in Nairobi, and analyze nutritional quality of processed fruit products. Three estates representing different income groups ...

  12. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  13. Advanced productivity forecast using petrophysical wireline data calibrated with MDT tests and numerical reservoir simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, Carlos de [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Canas, Jesus A.; Low, Steven; Barreto, Wesley [Schlumberger, Houston, TX (United States)

    2004-07-01

    This paper describes an integrated and rigorous approach for viscous and middle oil reservoir productivity evaluation using petrophysical models calibrated with permeability derived from mini tests (Dual Packer) and Vertical Interference Tests (VIT) from open hole wire line testers (MDT SLB TM). It describes the process from Dual Packer Test and VIT pre-job design, evaluation via analytical and inverse simulation modeling, calibration and up scaling of petrophysical data into a numerical model, history matching of Dual Packer Tests and VIT with numerical simulation modeling. Finally, after developing a dynamic calibrated model, we perform productivity forecasts of different well configurations (vertical, horizontal and multilateral wells) for several deep offshore oil reservoirs in order to support well testing activities and future development strategies. The objective was to characterize formation static and dynamic properties early in the field development process to optimize well testing design, extended well test (EWT) and support the development strategies in deep offshore viscous oil reservoirs. This type of oil has limitations to flow naturally to surface and special lifting equipment is required for smooth optimum well testing/production. The integrated analysis gave a good overall picture of the formation, including permeability anisotropy and fluid dynamics. Subsequent analysis of different well configurations and lifting schemes allows maximizing formation productivity. The simulation and calibration results are compared to measured well test data. Results from this work shows that if the various petrophysical and fluid properties sources are integrated properly an accurate well productivity model can be achieved. If done early in the field development program, this time/knowledge gain could reduce the risk and maximize the development profitability of new blocks (value of the information). (author)

  14. The Market for Optical Disk Products: A Review of Published Forecasts, 1980-1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffady, William

    1991-01-01

    Examines the expectations and reality of optical disk market forecasts published between 1980 and 1990. A historical survey and review of these studies is presented, with general forecasts of all optical disk types included. It is concluded that unrealistic predictions may have contributed to a sluggish market for optical disks. (70 notes)…

  15. Quantitation of Maillard reaction products in commercially available pet foods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooijen, van C.; Bosch, G.; Poel, van der A.F.B.; Wierenga, P.A.; Alexander, L.; Hendriks, W.H.

    2014-01-01

    During processing of pet food, the Maillard reaction occurs, which reduces the bioavailability of essential amino acids such as lysine and results in the formation of advanced Maillard reaction products (MRPs). The aim of this study was to quantitate MRPs (fructoselysine (FL), carboxymethyllysine

  16. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  17. Sales Forecasting for Fashion Retailing Service Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. It is especially critical for the fashion retailing service industry in which product demand is very volatile and product’s life cycle is short. This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review and selects a set of papers in the literature on fashion retail sales forecasting. The advantages and the drawbacks of different kinds of analytical methods for fashion retail sales forecasting are examined. The evolution of the respective forecasting methods over the past 15 years is revealed. Issues related to real-world applications of the fashion retail sales forecasting models and important future research directions are discussed.

  18. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

    2011-02-01

    The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

  19. Long-term forecasting of sales of the products of a company in International markets of enriched uranium under restrictions and quotas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimanov, S.G.; Kryanev, A.V.; Rostovskij, N.S.; Sliva, D.E.; Smirnov, D.S.; Kharitonov, V.V.

    2016-01-01

    A technique of forecasting company sales in the international regional markets of enriched uranium under imposed restrictions and quotas has been developed by the authors on the basis on scenario forecasts of the demand for company products and has been implemented as a set of computer software [ru

  20. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  1. New product forecasting demand by using neural networks and similar product analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso T. Sarmiento

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Esta investigación presenta una metodología para pronosticar productos nuevos que combina el pronóstico de productos similares. La parte cuantitativa del método usa una red neuronal artificial para calcular el pronóstico de cada producto similar. Estos pronósticos individuales son combinados usando una técnica cualitativa basada en un factor que mide la similaridad entre los productos análogos y el producto nuevo. Para ilustrar la metodología se presenta un caso de estudio de dos grandes compañías multinacionales en el sector de alimentos. Los resultados de este estudio mostraron en el 86 por ciento de los casos analizados pronósticos más exactos usando el método propuesto.

  2. Benthic Light Availability Improves Predictions of Riverine Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, L.; Cohen, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Light is a fundamental control on photosynthesis, and often the only control strongly correlated with gross primary production (GPP) in streams and rivers; yet it has received far less attention than nutrients. Because benthic light is difficult to measure in situ, surrogates such as open sky irradiance are often used. Several studies have now refined methods to quantify canopy and water column attenuation of open sky light in order to estimate the amount of light that actually reaches the benthos. Given the additional effort that measuring benthic light requires, we should ask if benthic light always improves our predictions of GPP compared to just open sky irradiance. We use long-term, high-resolution dissolved oxygen, turbidity, dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and irradiance data from streams and rivers in north-central Florida, US across gradients of size and color to build statistical models of benthic light that predict GPP. Preliminary results on a large, clear river show only modest model improvements over open sky irradiance, even in heavily canopied reaches with pulses of tannic water. However, in another spring-fed river with greater connectivity to adjacent wetlands - and hence larger, more frequent pulses of tannic water - the model improved dramatically with the inclusion of fDOM (model R2 improved from 0.28 to 0.68). River shade modeling efforts also suggest that knowing benthic light will greatly enhance our ability to predict GPP in narrower, forested streams flowing in particular directions. Our objective is to outline conditions where an assessment of benthic light conditions would be necessary for riverine metabolism studies or management strategies.

  3. FORECASTING OF PRODUCTION OUTPUT FOR LIGHT INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES WITH PURPOSE TO DETERMINE THEIR POWER RESOURCES REQUIREMENTS. Part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Romaniuk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an interest for those specialists who are involved in solution of efficiency problems in light industry of Belarus as one of the significant industries that forms an economic situation in the Republic, its export potential and social climate. It is extremely relevant for the Belarusian enterprises to reduce production costs in order to preserve and strengthen positions in the light industry market. Operating capacities for production of natural, synthetic textile and knit-wear materials and their subsequent treatment are in many respects unjustifiably energy intensive. Nowadays the only acceptable solution of the problem for reduction of production costs is to decrease its energy component. Such approach requires transition to creation of modern heat and power supply systems at heat technology enterprises.The most important sub-system of the enterprises is own combined production of energy flows of secondary electrical and heat energy, freeze. There is a complex of problems that arise during designing process of tri-generation unit. One of the most important problems presupposes determination of a base load demand and capacity of every energy flow generated by an energy source. The solution is directly related to production output, which in its turn is determined by the requirements of sales markets. Due to various reasons the markets have their own specificity for the enterprises under consideration. It is proposed to use statistical methods for searching requirements. In this connection it is necessary to take into account industry development rate (pre-determined by State Programs, Plans, Governmental solutions, including directive instructions, production volumes of competitive goods and actual goods situation on the sales market.The paper presents the first part of the executed complex investigations which are directed on the development of scientifically-substantiated proposals for higher energy efficiency of the

  4. Irradiated sewage sludge for increased crop production - III. Macronutrient availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Motaium, R.; Badawy, S.H.

    2002-01-01

    Irradiated and non-irradiated sewage sludge, from El-Gabal El-Asfar Farm near Cairo, were applied to tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum cv. GS) grown in a calcareous and a sandy soil at rates of 20, 40, 60, and 80 t/ha. Unfertilized controls and basal-fertilizer treatments were included. Total concentrations of micronutrients (Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn) in sludge-treated calcareous soil were higher than those in the sandy soil, although DTPA-extractable micronutrient concentrations were lower. There were no significant differences between irradiated and non-irradiated sludge treatments in DTPA-extractable and total micronutrient concentrations for the calcareous or the sandy soil. The total micronutrient concentrations for the highest sludge application rate (80 t/ha) were 5,108, 125, 68.2, and 207 μg/g in the calcareous soil and 2,200, 74.8, 43.2, and 139 μg/g in the sandy soil for Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn, respectively, whereas the DTPA-extractable micronutrient concentrations were 25.0, 6.2, 5.5 and 6.6 μg/g in the calcareous soil and 53.3, 10.1, 7.3 and 9.83 μg/g in the sandy soil, respectively. Highly significant differences were observed in total and available micronutrient concentrations in calcareous and sandy soils among the sludge-application rates. Micronutrient concentrations of tomato leaves and fruits increased with increasing application rates of irradiated and non-irradiated sludge, and were higher in the sandy than in the calcareous soil for the same treatment. Highly significant differences were observed among the sludge-application rates in terms of the concentrations of micronutrients in both leaves and fruits. However, there were no significant differences between the irradiated and non-irradiated sludge treatments in the micronutrient concentrations of leaves and fruits in either soil. Micronutrient uptake increased with increasing rates of application of sludge to the soil, more so in the sandy than in the calcareous soil. The amounts of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn

  5. Irradiated sewage sludge for increased crop production - III. Macronutrient availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Motaium, R.; Badawy, S.H.

    2002-01-01

    Irradiated and non-irradiated sewage sludge, from El-Gabal El-Asfar Farm near Cairo, were applied to tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum cv. GS) grown in a calcareous and a sandy soil at rates of 20, 40, 60, and 80 t/ha. Unfertilized controls and basal-fertilizer treatments were included. Total concentrations of micronutrients (Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn) in sludge-treated calcareous soil were higher than those in the sandy soil, although DTPAextractable micronutrient concentrations were lower. There were no significant differences between irradiated and non-irradiated sludge treatments in DTPA-extractable and total micronutrient concentrations for the calcareous or the sandy soil. The total micronutrient concentrations for the highest sludge application rate (80 t/ha) were 5,108, 125, 68.2, and 207 μg/g in the calcareous soil and 2,200, 74.8, 43.2, and 139 μg/g in the sandy soil for Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn, respectively, whereas the DTPA-extractable micronutrient concentrations were 25.0, 6.2, 5.5 and 6.6 μg/g in the calcareous soil and 53.3, 10.1, 7.3 and 9.83 μg/g in the sandy soil, respectively. Highly significant differences were observed in total and available micronutrient concentrations in calcareous and sandy soils among the sludge-application rates. Micronutrient concentrations of tomato leaves and fruits increased with increasing application rates of irradiated and non-irradiated sludge, and were higher in the sandy than in the calcareous soil for the same treatment. Highly significant differences were observed among the sludge-application rates in terms of the concentrations of micronutrients in both leaves and fruits. However, there were no significant differences between the irradiated and non-irradiated sludge treatments in the micronutrient concentrations of leaves and fruits in either soil. Micronutrient uptake increased with increasing rates of application of sludge to the soil, more so in the sandy than in the calcareous soil. The amounts of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn

  6. Verifying Operational and Developmental Air Force Weather Cloud Analysis and Forecast Products Using Lidar Data from Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, E. P.

    2017-12-01

    Air Force Weather has developed various cloud analysis and forecast products designed to support global Department of Defense (DoD) missions. A World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) and short term Advected Cloud (ADVCLD) forecast is generated hourly using data from 16 geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. Additionally, WWMCA and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are used in a statistical long-term (out to five days) cloud forecast model known as the Diagnostic Cloud Forecast (DCF). The WWMCA and ADVCLD are generated on the same polar stereographic 24 km grid for each hemisphere, whereas the DCF is generated on the same grid as its parent NWP model. When verifying the cloud forecast models, the goal is to understand not only the ability to detect cloud, but also the ability to assign it to the correct vertical layer. ADVCLD and DCF forecasts traditionally have been verified using WWMCA data as truth, but this might over-inflate the performance of those models because WWMCA also is a primary input dataset for those models. Because of this, in recent years, a WWMCA Reanalysis product has been developed, but this too is not a fully independent dataset. This year, work has been done to incorporate data from external, independent sources to verify not only the cloud forecast products, but the WWMCA data itself. One such dataset that has been useful for examining the 3-D performance of the cloud analysis and forecast models is Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data from various sites around the globe. This presentation will focus on the use of the Department of Energy (DoE) ARM data to verify Air Force Weather cloud analysis and forecast products. Results will be presented to show relative strengths and weaknesses of the analyses and forecasts.

  7. Evaluation of cloud properties in the NOAA/NCEP global forecast system using multiple satellite products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Hyelim [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Li, Zhanqing [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, GCESS, Beijing (China)

    2012-12-15

    Knowledge of cloud properties and their vertical structure is important for meteorological studies due to their impact on both the Earth's radiation budget and adiabatic heating within the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate bulk cloud properties and vertical distribution simulated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) using three global satellite products. Cloud variables evaluated include the occurrence and fraction of clouds in up to three layers, cloud optical depth, liquid water path, and ice water path. Cloud vertical structure data are retrieved from both active (CloudSat/CALIPSO) and passive sensors and are subsequently compared with GFS model results. In general, the GFS model captures the spatial patterns of hydrometeors reasonably well and follows the general features seen in satellite measurements, but large discrepancies exist in low-level cloud properties. More boundary layer clouds over the interior continents were generated by the GFS model whereas satellite retrievals showed more low-level clouds over oceans. Although the frequencies of global multi-layer clouds from observations are similar to those from the model, latitudinal variations show discrepancies in terms of structure and pattern. The modeled cloud optical depth over storm track region and subtropical region is less than that from the passive sensor and is overestimated for deep convective clouds. The distributions of ice water path (IWP) agree better with satellite observations than do liquid water path (LWP) distributions. Discrepancies in LWP/IWP distributions between observations and the model are attributed to differences in cloud water mixing ratio and mean relative humidity fields, which are major control variables determining the formation of clouds. (orig.)

  8. FORECASTING OF PRODUCTION OUTPUT FOR LIGHT INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES WITH PURPOSE TO DETERMINE THEIR POWER RESOURCES REQUIREMENTS. Part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Romaniuk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The proposed paper is a continuation of the work, published in the previous issue. It is destined for specialists who are engaged in solution of problems pertaining to efficiency of light industry in Belarus which is considered as one of the branches being significantly involved in formation of national economy, its export potential and social climate. It is extremely relevant to reduce production costs in order to preserve and add strength to the branch positions in the markets. Production of natural, synthetic and knitted materials and their subsequent treatment are unreasonably power-consuming processes. Fundamental solution of the problem for reduction of production costs is to decrease its energy component and this can be achieved due to transition to modern heat and power systems in technological complexes of enterprises.The first part of the paper has considered a range of issues that served as a basis for obtaining statistical models in order to forecast the required production volume of main knitted and textile materials.  Forecasting has been prepared   for a period of more than 20 years because it has been predetermined by development horizon of comprehensive modernization of energy supply systems at enterprises of light industry. The production volumes essentially differ from those that have been stipulated in the programs of light industry.The present paper shows selection of statistical game-type for determination of  build-up rate of the production volume for every textile enterprise. The so-called “Game with Nature” has been selected as a game which is widely used for solution of analogous demand problems. The statistical forecasting models of production obtained in the first part are applied in the second part of the paper which considers strategies for development of individual enterprises. JSC :Baranovichi Industrial Cotton Association” has been taken an example in the paper. Production volumes of any enterprise are

  9. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  10. Power plant asset market evaluations: Forecasting the costs of power production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefton, S.A.; Grunsrud, G.P. [Aptech Engineering Services, Inc., Sunnyvale, CA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation discusses the process of evaluating and valuing power plants for sale. It describes a method to forecast the future costs at a power plant using a portion of the past fixed costs, variable energy costs, and most importantly the variable cycling-related wear-and-tear costs. The presentation then discusses how to best determine market share, expected revenues, and then to forecast plant future costs based on future expected unit cycling operations. The presentation concludes with a section on recommendations to power plant buyers or sellers on how to manage the power plant asset and how to increase its market value. (orig.) 4 refs.

  11. MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

  12. Power plant asset market evaluations: Forecasting the costs of power production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefton, S A; Grunsrud, G P [Aptech Engineering Services, Inc., Sunnyvale, CA (United States)

    1999-12-31

    This presentation discusses the process of evaluating and valuing power plants for sale. It describes a method to forecast the future costs at a power plant using a portion of the past fixed costs, variable energy costs, and most importantly the variable cycling-related wear-and-tear costs. The presentation then discusses how to best determine market share, expected revenues, and then to forecast plant future costs based on future expected unit cycling operations. The presentation concludes with a section on recommendations to power plant buyers or sellers on how to manage the power plant asset and how to increase its market value. (orig.) 4 refs.

  13. Power plant asset market evaluations: Forecasting the costs of power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefton, S.A.; Grunsrud, G.P.

    1998-01-01

    This presentation discusses the process of evaluating and valuing power plants for sale. It describes a method to forecast the future costs at a power plant using a portion of the past fixed costs, variable energy costs, and most importantly the variable cycling-related wear-and-tear costs. The presentation then discusses how to best determine market share, expected revenues, and then to forecast plant future costs based on future expected unit cycling operations. The presentation concludes with a section on recommendations to power plant buyers or sellers on how to manage the power plant asset and how to increase its market value. (orig.) 4 refs

  14. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  15. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Ramos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  16. Hydrocarbon production forecast for committed assets in the shallow water Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.

    2009-01-01

    In 2007, the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico averaged daily production of 1.3 million barrels of oil and 7.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The majority of oil is produced from deepwater fields in water depth greater than 1000 ft, while most gas production is extracted from the shelf. The Outer Continental Shelf is a mature province with over 3800 fixed structures and 6500 producing wells connected into an integrated pipeline network more than 30,000 miles in length. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to forecast oil and gas production in the shallow water Gulf of Mexico. Structures are categorized according to age and production characteristics, and forecast procedures for each asset class are described and illustrated. The methodology is implemented using the inventory of committed assets circa December 2006. The expected amount of hydrocarbon production arising from the inventory of committed assets under stable reservoir and investment conditions is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas valued between $85 and 150 billion. The results of generalized regression models are presented with a discussion of the limitations of analysis. (author)

  17. The impact of weather and ocean forecasting on hydrocarbon production and pollution management in the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Pulsipher, Allan G.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past 2 years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. The occurrences of extreme weather regularly force operators to shut-down production, cease drilling and construction activities, and evacuate personnel. Loop currents and eddies can also impact offshore operations and delay installation and drilling activities and reduce the effectiveness of oil spill response strategies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how weather and ocean forecasting impact production activities and pollution management in the GOM. Physical outcome and decision models in support of production and development activities and oil spill response management are presented, and the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated ocean observation network in the region are summarized. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for energy development and production activities and oil spill response management

  18. Sizing inventory of blood products in a blood bank at Brazil based on a model of inventory management and a demand forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Lorena Marques Gurgel

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The management of the stocks of products derived from the blood processing collected in blood banks is a problem for health services in Brazil and the world. Quantify the stocks of these products in order to equalize the demand and supply is not a simple task. It's necessary ensure that the product is available when needed and in due time. However, there is no how overestimate these stocks given that the product is perishable and it is not easy the availability of raw material (blood for processing. There are few studies in Brazil, however, that discuss this issue. This study will focus on one Brazilian Hemocentro, which has faced the challenge of measure the demand for haemotherapic's products and establish parameters to control their stocks. Thus, it was sought to adapt a recent study realized out of the country, about sizing of stocks of a inventory for blood banks, combined with a forecast model of demand for blood derivatives subclassified by blood type. This control aims to increase the availability of the transfusion service, as it intends to reduce shortages and wastage of the blood collected.

  19. Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

  20. Forecast products from the Gulf of Mexico created by the NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS) from 2007-09-10 to the present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains outputs from the NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS) in the form of bulletin documents beginning on 2007-09-10....

  1. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  2. The daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources – a required condition for the operation of the new energy market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalpachka, Gergana; Kalpachki, Georgi

    2011-01-01

    The report presented the new energy market model in Bulgaria and the main attention is directed to a daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources. The need of development of a methodology and the development of the most precise methods for predicting is reviewed and some of the used methods at the moment are presented. An analysis of the problems related to the daily hour forecasting is done using data from the producers of electrical energy from renewable energy sources in the territory of western Bulgaria. Keywords: Renewable energy sources, daily hour forecasting, electrical energy

  3. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  4. Development of a novel market forecasting tool and its application to hydrogen energy production in Scotland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, T.; Cruden, A.

    2010-01-01

    The authors propose a novel model for forecasting the deployment of hydrogen energy systems based on a company value maximisation algorithm, designed to assist governments and other industry players in decision-making and the development of appropriate policy instruments. Current cost-minimisation approaches, such as MARKAL, have limitations particularly where price arbitrage between energy streams exists. A theoretical relationship between market sector valuations and investment activity is developed and the model is subsequently applied to the Scottish hydrogen energy market. Through the utilisation of net present value, revenue and profitability based valuations, the impact of investing in hydrogen energy infrastructure projects on three key market competitors is considered. It is shown that the three methods for calculating the value impact render different results suggesting that the use of a single method to assess forecast development scenarios, whether cost or value-based methods, may be misleading and that the holistic approach proposed is more realistic. The archivable value of this paper is to demonstrate the impact that investor expectations can have on investment decisions, a facet not captured in traditional methods of forecasting. (author)

  5. The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes. Medical Isotope Supply in the Future: Production Capacity and Demand. Forecast for the 99Mo/99mTc Market, 2015-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peykov, Pavel; Cameron, Ron

    2014-04-01

    This document presents a forecast of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc production capacity and demand in 2015-2020, when two major irradiators - the OSIRIS and NRU reactors in France and Canada - are expected to exit the global supply chain and new alternative technology projects may be commissioned. The forecast does not attempt to predict shortages, but identify periods when there is an increased risk of disrupted supply, to inform policy makers and other stakeholders. (authors)

  6. The GOCF/AWAP system - forecasting temperature extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fawcett, Robert; Hume, Timothy

    2010-01-01

    Gridded hourly temperature forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology's Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasting (GOCF) system are combined in real time with the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded daily temperature analyses to produce gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts with lead times from one to five days. These forecasts are compared against the historical record of AWAP daily temperature analyses (1911 to present), to identify regions where record or near-record temperatures are predicted to occur. This paper describes the GOCF/AWAP system, showing how the daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts are prepared from the hourly forecasts, and how they are bias-corrected in real time using the AWAP analyses, against which they are subsequently verified. Using monthly climatologies of long-term daily mean, standard deviation and all-time highest and lowest on record, derived forecast products (for both maximum and minimum temperature) include ordinary and standardised anomalies, 'forecast - highest on record' and 'forecast - lowest on record'. Compensation for the climatological variation across the country is achieved in these last two products, which provide the necessary guidance as to whether or not record-breaking temperatures are expected, by expressing the forecast departure from the previous record in both 0 C and standard deviations.

  7. The Forecasting of Adaptation Potential of Herbaceous Perennials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belykh, O. A.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates the problem of the ecobiomorph productive features formation of perennial herbs Ranunculaceae family forecasting on the basis of quantitative connections of species parameters with the leading geomorphological factors of South Siberia environment.

  8. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  9. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  10. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  11. 75 FR 33311 - Guidance for Industry on Bioequivalence Recommendations for Specific Products; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    ... available recommendations on how to design product-specific BE studies to support ANDAs. Under this process... thinking on a new process for making available to sponsors FDA guidance on how to design product-specific... ``Bioequivalence Recommendations for Specific Products.'' This guidance describes a new process for making...

  12. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  13. FORECAST PRODUCTION COSTS SUGAR IN THE PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA THROUGH ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The conformation at the present time, of an economic model renovated in Cuba, it should be based in the efficient use of the productive factors which it counts the country, with emphasis in the substitution of imports. In the chapter VII, article 184 of the Limits of the Economic and Social Politics of the Party and the Revolution it can be read: "To prioritize, in short term, the substitution of imports of those foods that can be produced efficiently in the country; also it will owe to multiply the application of the results of the science and the technique."1 In fact the objective of the present investigation, using econometrics technical to carry out presage of the cost of sugar production, using factors in the productive process: days of harvest, use of the potential, recovered capacity and industrial yield. The results indicate  that the factor with more influences in the decrease of the costs is the industrial yield. It is also obtained a cost presage for the county Santiago de Cuba in different harvest stages that oscillates between $372,45 and 517,52 and it stops extreme values of $ 303,21 and $ 777,6. 

  14. Forecast of power generation and heat production from renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pydych Tadeusz

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The share of renewable energy sources (RES in the end use of energy in the UE will increase from the present level of about 25% to 50 % in 2030 according to the assumptions of the European Commission. In Poland the RES Act was passed in 2015. The act defines mechanisms and instruments for supporting the production of electricity and heat from renewable energy sources. Statistics (2003–2014 of electricity generation and heat production from RES in Poland were used in the research. Because of amendments to regulations connected with promoting RES and the emissions trading system (ETS as well as the uncertainty associated with further directions of the energy and environmental policy, generation of electricity and heat based on the use of RES must be modelled while taking risk into account. A number of dynamic processes incorporating random events may be modelled by stochastic equations using Ito calculus. By applying Euler’s method to solve stochastic differential equations (SDE, it is possible to simulate the development of the use of renewable energy carriers in electricity generation and heat production in the future.

  15. Production data from five major geothermal fields in Nevada analysed using a physiostatistical algorithm developed for oil and gas: temperature decline forecasts and type curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, H. A.; Golubkova, A.; Eklund, C.

    2015-12-01

    Nevada has the second largest output of geothermal energy in the United States (after California) with 14 major power plants producing over 425 megawatts of electricity meeting 7% of the state's total energy needs. A number of wells, particularly older ones, have shown significant temperature and pressure declines over their lifetimes, adversely affecting economic returns. Production declines are almost universal in the oil and gas (O&G) industry. BetaZi (BZ) is a proprietary algorithm which uses a physiostatistical model to forecast production from the past history of O&G wells and to generate "type curves" which are used to estimate the production of undrilled wells. Although BZ was designed and calibrated for O&G, it is a general purpose diffusion equation solver, capable of modeling complex fluid dynamics in multi-phase systems. In this pilot study, it is applied directly to the temperature data from five Nevada geothermal fields. With the data appropriately normalized, BZ is shown to accurately predict temperature declines. The figure shows several examples of BZ forecasts using historic data from Steamboat Hills field near Reno. BZ forecasts were made using temperature on a normalized scale (blue) with two years of data held out for blind testing (yellow). The forecast is returned in terms of percentiles of probability (red) with the median forecast marked (solid green). Actual production is expected to fall within the majority of the red bounds 80% of the time. Blind tests such as these are used to verify that the probabilistic forecast can be trusted. BZ is also used to compute and accurate type temperature profile for wells that have yet to be drilled. These forecasts can be combined with estimated costs to evaluate the economics and risks of a project or potential capital investment. It is remarkable that an algorithm developed for oil and gas can accurately predict temperature in geothermal wells without significant recasting.

  16. A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Sales in Turkish Paint Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alp Ustundag

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is important for facilitating effective and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, how to best model and forecast sales has been a long-standing issue. There is no best forecasting method that is applicable in all circumstances. Therefore, confidence in the accuracy of sales forecasts is achieved by corroborating the results using two or more methods. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that uses an artificial intelligence method (AI with multiple linear regression (MLR to predict product sales for the largest Turkish paint producer. In the hybrid model, three different AI methods, fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS, artificial neural network (ANN and adaptive neuro fuzzy network (ANFIS, are used and compared to each other. The results indicate that FRBS yields better forecasting accuracy in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  17. Availability of biomass for energy production. GRAIN: Global Restrictions on biomass Availability for Import to the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lysen, E.H.

    2000-08-01

    The report includes reports of activities that were carried out within the GRAIN project. This evaluation shows that the (technical) potential contribution of bio-energy to the future world's energy supply could be very large. In theory, energy farming on current agricultural land could contribute over 800 EJ, without jeopardising the world's food supply. Use of degraded lands may add another 150 EJ, although this contribution will largely come from crops with a low productivity. The growing demand for bio-materials may require a biomass input equivalent to 20-50 EJ, which must be grown on plantations when existing forests are not able to supply this growing demand. Organic wastes and residues could possibly supply another 40-170 EJ, with uncertain contributions from forest residues and potentially a very significant role for organic waste, especially when bio-materials are used on a larger scale. In total, the upper limit of the bio-energy potential could be over 1000 EJ per year. This is considerably more than the current global energy use of 400 EJ. However, this contribution is by no means guaranteed: crucial factors determining biomass availability for energy are: (1) Population growth and economic development; (2) The efficiency and productivity of food production systems that must be adopted worldwide and the rate of their deployment in particular in developing countries; (3) Feasibility of the use of marginal/degraded lands; (4) Productivity of forests and sustainable harvest levels; (5) The (increased) utilisation of bio-materials. Major transitions are required to exploit this bio-energy potential. It is uncertain to what extent such transitions are feasible. Depending on the factors mentioned above, the bio-energy potential could be very low as well. At regional/local level the possibilities and potential consequences of biomass production and use can vary strongly, but the insights in possible consequences are fairly limited up to now. Bio-energy offers

  18. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  19. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  20. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-01-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  1. 76 FR 9028 - Guidance for Industry: Potency Tests for Cellular and Gene Therapy Products; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-16

    ...] Guidance for Industry: Potency Tests for Cellular and Gene Therapy Products; Availability AGENCY: Food and... Therapy Products'' dated January 2011. The guidance document provides manufacturers of cellular and gene... for Industry: Potency Tests for Cellular and Gene Therapy Products'' dated January 2011. The guidance...

  2. 77 FR 24722 - Draft Guidance for Industry: Safety of Nanomaterials in Cosmetic Products; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-25

    ...] Draft Guidance for Industry: Safety of Nanomaterials in Cosmetic Products; Availability AGENCY: Food and... safety assessment of nanomaterials in cosmetic products. This guidance is intended to assist industry in... Cosmetic Products.'' The draft guidance is intended to assist industry in identifying the potential safety...

  3. Composition, disintegrative properties, and labeling compliance of commercially available taurine and carnitine dietary products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragg, Rebecca R; Freeman, Lisa M; Fascetti, Andrea J; Yu, Zengshou

    2009-01-15

    To test the quality, disintegration properties, and compliance with labeling regulations for representative commercially available taurine and carnitine dietary products. Evaluation study. 11 commercially available taurine and 10 commercially available carnitine products. For each product, the amount of taurine or carnitine was determined and compared with the label claim. All products were evaluated for concentrations of mercury, arsenic, and selenium. Disintegration properties of 5 taurine and 8 carnitine products were determined in vitro. Labels were evaluated for compliance with FDA guidelines. 10 of 11 taurine and 10 of 10 carnitine products were within 10% of the stated label claim. Three of 11 taurine and 6 of 10 carnitine products were within 5% of the stated label claim. The median percentage difference between laboratory analysis and label claim was -5.7% (range, -26.3% to 2.5%) for taurine and 3.6% (range, -2.6% to 8.8%) for carnitine. No substantial amount of contamination with mercury, arsenic, or selenium was found in any of the products. During disintegration testing, 1 of 5 taurine products and 5 of 8 carnitine products did not disintegrate within 45 minutes during at least 1 test. Disintegration time for those that did disintegrate ranged from 1.7 to 37.0 minutes. All product labels conformed with FDA regulations. Taurine and carnitine products evaluated in this study closely adhered to manufacturer claims and labeling guidelines. However, disintegration testing suggested high variability in some products, possibly limiting uptake and use by animals that receive them.

  4. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  5. Productivity analysis to overcome the limited availability of production time in SME FBS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhasanah, N.; Jingga; Aribowo, B.; Gayatri, AM; Mardhika, DA; Tanjung, WN; Suri, QA; Safitri, R.; Supriyanto, A.

    2017-12-01

    Good industrial development should pay attention to the human factor as the main driver. Condition of work procedures, work area, and environment can affect the production result because if not optimal, the production will run slowly. If the work system is less than optimal, the productivity will do so, the operator will work uncomfortably and be easy to undergo work fatigue, even it can cause work accidents. Thus, the optimal and ergonomic arrangement of the the overall work system mechanism and work environment design is required for workers to work well, regularly, safely and comfortably with the aim of improving work productivity. This research measures the performance in textile SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) located in Sukabumi which is SME FBS which produces children’s clothing. This performance measurement is aimed at improving the competitiveness of the textile IKM so that it has the equal competitiveness with other SMEs or with textile industries that already have their name in market. Based on the method of hour standard time and TOC calculation at 2 FBS CMT (Cut-Make-Trim) in Sukabumi, which are the CMT Margaluyu Village and CMT Purabaya Village, the result is that the standard time of shirt work on CMT Margaluyu Village is less than that of CMT Desa Purabaya. It can be seen that more effective in SME FBS production is by process method.

  6. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  7. Availability Evaluation of the serial processes in a Paper Production Industry-A Numerical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana Sharma

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to compute availability of the process of a paper production industry consisting of four subsystems. Mathematical formulation of the problem is carried out using probability considerations and the governing differential equations are solved using Runge-Kutta method of order four. Availability of the serial process in the paper production industry have been computed for various choice of failure and repair rates of subsystems of this plant.

  8. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  9. Demand forecast: a case study at a meat agribusiness in west Santa Catarina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleunice Zanella

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on demand forecasts, companies plan production, financial and personnel scenarios, both in the long and short term. The forecasts are essential, especially for companies working with a push production system, for which there is no sale of collateral. They should therefore plan their production and financial systems with the aim of meeting the demand forecast of their products or services. Thus, this study was conducted at a meat agribusiness located in Chapecó, in the state of Santa Catarina, in order to analyze the demand forecasting methods used by the company. It is a case study with a qualitative approach. Data collection was conducted through semi-structured interviews with the operations manager, commercial manager and analysts who respond to the demand forecasts made. The main results highlight the use of both quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as indicating the importance of demand forecasts for the planning of the company

  10. Protein and starch digestibilities and mineral availability of products developed from potato, soy and corn flour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gahlawat, P; Sehgal, S

    1998-01-01

    A technique for development of potato flour was standardized. Five products viz. cake, biscuit, weaning food, panjiri and ladoo were prepared incorporating potato flour, defatted soy flour and corn flour. Baking and roasting were the major processing techniques employed for the development of these products. Protein, ash and fat contents of potato flour were almost similar to those of raw potatoes. Significant differences in protein, ash and fat contents of all the products were observed. Protein and starch digestibility of potato flour was significantly higher than that of raw potatoes. Protein digestibility increased by 12 to 17 percent on baking or roasting of products. Processed products had significantly higher starch digestibility and mineral availability compared to raw products. Thus, it can be concluded that roasting and baking are effective means of improving starch and protein digestibility and mineral availability of products.

  11. Overview of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Products Available for the Arctic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.L. Kholod

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service is one of six services (ocean, atmosphere, land, emergency situations, security and climate changes launched by the European Union within the EU Earth observation program. The data in the monitoring system covers both the entire World Ocean and individual European basins. The paper reviews the products of the Copernicus Marine Service operational system available in the Arctic. At the present time this region is of the increased interest both in Russia and in the world community. The system products include information on the thermodynamic, biogeochemical and bio-optical state of the marine environment. The system products are accessed through the electronic catalog of products. Selection criteria and possibilities for searching interesting information through the interactive web-portal are given in the paper. The system products containing the data of model calculations, satellite and in situ measurement results are considered. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the products are given, information on by whom, how the product was obtained and what is its accuracy is represented. The results of the system products visualization by the integrated tools (they allow one to construct and analyze time series, profiles, horizontal and vertical sections are shown. All the system data is publicly available to the registered users. Regular changes and updates of the system products as well as the mechanisms for accessing them take place. This information is sent to users by e-mail and is available on the news flash of the web-portal.

  12. Relationship between availability of contraceptive products and pharmacists as information sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Elizabeth A; Farris, Karen B; Chrischilles, Elizabeth; Aquilino, Mary

    2012-01-01

    To describe the relationship between the availability and accessibility of contraceptives in Iowa pharmacies and the extent to which pharmacists act as an information source regarding contraceptives. Descriptive, exploratory, nonexperimental study. Iowa in fall 2008. 282 pharmacists at Iowa community pharmacies. Cross-sectional survey. Contraceptive availability score, contraceptive accessibility score, and total access score. Regression analyses tested the relationships between the pharmacist information source score and the contraceptive availability, accessibility, and total access scores, controlling for geography, ownership, staff size, and average number of prescriptions per day. Significant positive relationships between the pharmacist information source score and product accessibility, product availability, and total access were observed. The relationship appeared to be driven primarily by product availability, and all were significantly influenced by pharmacy type. Significant negative relationships were found between product accessibility and independent/small chain pharmacies and mass merchandiser/grocery store pharmacies relative to large chain pharmacies. A significant negative relationship was found between independent/small chain pharmacies and the product availability score. Significant relationships were found between pharmacists' ability to act as sources of information for contraceptive products and the availability, accessibility, and overall access to contraceptives in the pharmacy.

  13. Product-line selection and pricing with remanufacturing under availability constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aras, Necati; Esenduran, G.÷k.‡e.; Altinel, I. Kuban

    2004-12-01

    Product line selection and pricing are two crucial decisions for the profitability of a manufacturing firm. Remanufacturing, on the other hand, may be a profitable strategy that captures the remaining value in used products. In this paper we develop a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model form the perspective of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). The objective of the OEM is to select products to manufacture and remanufacture among a set of given alternatives and simultaneously determine their prices so as to maximize its profit. It is assumed that the probability a customer selects a product is proportional to its utility and inversely proportional to its price. The utility of a product is an increasing function of its perceived quality. In our base model, products are discriminated by their unit production costs and utilities. We also analyze a case where remanufacturing is limited by the available quantity of collected remanufacturable products. We show that the resulting problem is decomposed into the pricing and product line selection subproblems. Pricing problem is solved by a variant of the simplex search procedure which can also handle constraints, while complete enumeration and a genetic algorithm are used for the solution of the product line selection problem. A number of experiments are carried out to identify conditions under which it is economically viable for the firm to sell remanufactured products. We also determine the optimal utility and unit production cost values of a remanufactured product, which maximizes the total profit of the OEM.

  14. Product availability from delivery aspect: Evidence from retailers in selected Western Balkan countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bearing in mind that it represents one of the main preconditions of sales, product availability is the key task of retail companies and their delivery systems. This paper analyses its levels from the aspect of centralized and DSD systems. The research is conducted in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, including 84 stores and more than 70 FMCG products per each store. Thereby, the comparisons in product availability levels between alternative delivery systems are carried out within different trading formats and within different product categories. Unlike the results of similar studies and ongoing changes on retail markets, this research shows that at retailers in these Western Balkan countries, availability levels are higher in the case of DSD system.

  15. Shift level analysis of cable yarder availability, utilization, and productive time

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Sherar; Chris B. LeDoux

    1989-01-01

    Decision makers, loggers, managers, and planners need to understand and have methods for estimating utilization and productive time of cable logging systems. In making an accurate prediction of how much area and volume a machine will log per unit time and the associated cable yarding costs, a reliable estimate of the availability, utilization, and productive time of...

  16. A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patzek, Tadeusz W. [Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, The University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Croft, Gregory D. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of California, Berkeley, Davis Hall, CA 94720 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    Based on economic and policy considerations that appear to be unconstrained by geophysics, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios. In this paper, we develop a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska and the Russian Far East, are treated as sensitivities on top of this base-case, producing an additional 125 Gt of coal. The value of this approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base-case is significantly below 36 of the 40 carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC. The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011. The peak coal production rate is 160 EJ/y, and the peak carbon emissions from coal burning are 4.0 Gt C (15 Gt CO{sub 2}) per year. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO{sub 2} decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this BAU scenario. (author)

  17. Forecasting of energy and diesel consumption and the cost of energy production in isolated electrical systems in the Amazon using a fuzzification process in time series models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neto, Joao C. do L, E-mail: jcaldas@ufam.edu.br [Group of Optimization and Fuzzy Systems, Federal University of Amazonas, General Rodrigo Octavio Jordao Ramos Avenue, 3000, Academic Campus, 69077-000 Manaus, Amazonas (Brazil); Costa Junior, Carlos T. da [Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Institute of Technology, Federal University of Para, Augusto Correa Street, 1, Guama, 66075-900 Belem, Para (Brazil); Bitar, Sandro D.B. [Group of Optimization and Fuzzy Systems, Federal University of Amazonas, General Rodrigo Octavio Jordao Ramos Avenue, 3000, Academic Campus, 69077-000 Manaus, Amazonas (Brazil); Junior, Walter B. [Postgraduate Program in Electrical Engineering, Institute of Technology, Federal University of Para, Augusto Correa Street, 1, Guama, 66075-900 Belem, Para (Brazil)

    2011-09-15

    Understanding the uncertainty inherent in the analysis of diesel fuel consumption and its impact on the generation of electricity is an important topic for planning the expansion of isolated thermoelectric systems in the state of Amazonas. In light of this, a decision support system has been developed to forecast the cost of electricity production using non-stationary data by integrating the methodology of time series models with fuzzy systems and optimization tools. The method presented herein combines the potential of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models, such as the forecasting tool, with the advantages of fuzzy set theory to compensate for the uncertainties and errors encountered in the observed data, which would degrade the validity of forecasted values. The results show that incorporation of the {alpha}-cut concept facilitated the evaluation of risks while allowing simultaneous consideration of intervals for the unitary cost of energy production. This provides the analyst with the ability to make decisions using various predicted intervals with different membership values instead of the common practice of simply using the specific costs. - Highlights: > A decision support system has been developed using SARIMA with fuzzy systems and optimizations tools. > It assists the decision-making process for planning the expansion in isolated thermoelectric systems. > The {alpha}-cut concept facilitated the evaluation of risks for the cost of electricity production. > Provides decisions using various forecasted interval for this cost with different membership values.

  18. Forecasting of energy and diesel consumption and the cost of energy production in isolated electrical systems in the Amazon using a fuzzification process in time series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neto, Joao C. do L; Costa Junior, Carlos T. da; Bitar, Sandro D.B.; Junior, Walter B.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the uncertainty inherent in the analysis of diesel fuel consumption and its impact on the generation of electricity is an important topic for planning the expansion of isolated thermoelectric systems in the state of Amazonas. In light of this, a decision support system has been developed to forecast the cost of electricity production using non-stationary data by integrating the methodology of time series models with fuzzy systems and optimization tools. The method presented herein combines the potential of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models, such as the forecasting tool, with the advantages of fuzzy set theory to compensate for the uncertainties and errors encountered in the observed data, which would degrade the validity of forecasted values. The results show that incorporation of the α-cut concept facilitated the evaluation of risks while allowing simultaneous consideration of intervals for the unitary cost of energy production. This provides the analyst with the ability to make decisions using various predicted intervals with different membership values instead of the common practice of simply using the specific costs. - Highlights: → A decision support system has been developed using SARIMA with fuzzy systems and optimizations tools. → It assists the decision-making process for planning the expansion in isolated thermoelectric systems. → The α-cut concept facilitated the evaluation of risks for the cost of electricity production. → Provides decisions using various forecasted interval for this cost with different membership values.

  19. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  20. An indirect method for forecasting the annual food production of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The green revolution which increased the annual food production of India drastically was made possible by the application of science and technology to agriculture. The total technological inputs to the farming sector has been growing steadily...

  1. A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Zhaoxuan Li; SM Mahbobur Rahman; Rolando Vega; Bing Dong

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate and compare two common methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), for predicting energy productions from a solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Florida 15 min, 1 h and 24 h ahead of time. A hierarchical approach is proposed based on the machine learning algorithms tested. The production data used in this work corresponds to 15 min averaged power measurements collected from 2014. The accuracy of the model is determined using computing error statisti...

  2. Development of an Adaptive Forecasting System: A Case Study of a PC Manufacturer in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chihyun Jung

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a case study of the development of an adaptive forecasting system for a leading personal computer (PC manufacturer in South Korea. It is widely accepted that demand forecasting for products with short product life cycles (PLCs is difficult, and the PLC of a PC is generally very short. The firm has various types of products, and the volatile demand patterns differ by product. Moreover, we found that different departments have different requirements when it comes to the accuracy, point-of-time and range of the forecasts. We divide the demand forecasting process into three stages depending on the requirements and purposes. The systematic forecasting process is then introduced to improve the accuracy of demand forecasting and to meet the department-specific requirements. Moreover, a newly devised short-term forecasting method is presented, which utilizes the long-term forecasting results of the preceding stages. We evaluate our systematic forecasting methods based on actual sales data from the PC manufacturer, where our forecasting methods have been implemented.

  3. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  4. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  5. Screening-Level Safety Assessment of Personal Care Product Constituents Using Publicly Available Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest S. Fung

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Organizations recommend evaluating individual ingredients when assessing the safety of personal care or cosmetic products. The goal of this study was to present a screening-level safety assessment methodology to evaluate the safety of a product by identifying individual ingredients, determining their frequency of use in on-market products, and examining published safe-level-of-use information for each ingredient. As a case study, we evaluated WEN by Chaz Dean (WCD cleansing conditioners since there have been claims of adverse health effects associated with product use. We evaluated 30 ingredients in three on-market WCD cleansing conditioners. We then analyzed the National Library of Medicine’s Household Products Database and the Environmental Working Group’s (EWG Skin Deep Cosmetic Database, two of the largest publicly available databases, for other on-market personal care and cosmetic products that contained these ingredients. Safe-level-of-use information for each ingredient was obtained by reviewing peer-reviewed literature, the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA generally recognized as safe (GRAS database, available Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR publications, and available product safety publications. The results of this analysis showed that more than 20,000 personal care and cosmetic products contained one or more of the evaluated ingredients used in WCD cleaning conditioners. Published safety information was available for 21 of the 30 evaluated ingredients: seven identified ingredients were designated as GRAS by the FDA and 16 ingredients had safe-level-of-use information available from the CIR. This study presents a screening-level safety assessment methodology that can serve as an initial screening tool to evaluate the safety of an ingredient intended for use in personal care and cosmetic products before a product is launched onto the market. This study provides evidence that the evaluated WCD cleansing conditioner ingredients

  6. Contributions of knowledge products to health policy: a case study on the Public Health Status and Forecasts Report 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegger, Ingrid; Kok, Maarten O; Janssen, Susan W J; Schuit, Albertine J; van Oers, Hans A M

    2016-12-01

    The Dutch Public Health Status and Forecasts report (PHSF Report) integrates research data and identifies future trends affecting public health in the Netherlands. To investigate how PHSF contributions to health policy can be enhanced, we analysed the development process whereby the PHSF Report for 2010 was produced (PHSF-2010). To collect data, a case study approach was used along the lines of Contribution Mapping including analysis of documents from the PHSF-2010 process and interviews with actors involved. All interviews were recorded and transcribed ad verbatim and coded using an inductive code list. The PHSF-2010 process included activities aimed at alignment between researchers and policy-makers, such as informal meetings. However, we identified three issues that are easily overlooked in knowledge development, but provide suggestions for enhancing contributions: awareness of divergent; continuously changing actor scenarios; vertical alignment within organizations involved and careful timing of draft products to create early adopters. To enhance the contributions made by an established public health report, such as the PHSF Report, it is insufficient to raise the awareness of potential users. The knowledge product must be geared to policy-makers' needs and must be introduced into the scenarios of actors who may be less familiar. The demand for knowledge product adaptations has to be considered. This requires continuous alignment efforts in all directions: horizontal and vertical, external and internal. The findings of this study may be useful to researchers who aim to enhance the contributions of their knowledge products to health policy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

  7. Optimal modeling and forecasting of the energy consumption and production in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Ping-ping; Dang, Yao-guo; Yao, Tian-xiang; Wang, Zheng-xin

    2014-01-01

    Energy is of fundamental importance to a nation's economy. Accurate prediction of the energy consumption and production in China can play a guiding role in making the energy consumption plan, and facilitate timely and effective decision making of energy policy. This article proposes a novel GM (gray model) (1,1) model based on optimizing initial condition according to the principle of new information priority. The optimized model and five other GM (1,1) models are applied in the modeling of China's energy consumption and production. Both the simulation and prediction accuracy of the models are compared and analyzed. We obtain the result that the optimized model has higher prediction accuracy than the other five models. Therefore, the presented optimized model is further utilized to predict China's energy consumption and production from 2013 to 2017. The result indicates that China's energy consumption and production will keep increasing and the gap between the energy production and consumption will also be increasing. Finally, we predict Iran's and Argentina's energy consumption to further prove the effectiveness of the proposed model. - Highlights: • We proposed a novel GM (1,1) model based on optimizing initial condition. • The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is better than the other models. • We used the proposed model to predict China's energy consumption and production. • The proposed model can be used to predict other countries' energy consumption

  8. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  9. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  10. Availability and range of tobacco products for sale in Massachusetts pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidenberg, Andrew B; Hong, Weiwei; Liu, Jiayue; Noel, Jonathan K; Rees, Vaughan W

    2013-11-01

    New tobacco control policies have been introduced in Massachusetts which restrict tobacco product sales in pharmacies. The purpose of this investigation was to outline the scope of pharmacy involvement in the tobacco market by assessing the availability and range of tobacco products sold in Massachusetts pharmacies. Public listings of licenced pharmacies and tobacco retailers in Massachusetts were examined to determine the proportion of pharmacies licenced to sell tobacco, and the proportion of tobacco retailers possessing a pharmacy licence. Telephone interviews were conducted with a random sample (n=70) of pharmacies possessing a tobacco licence to assess the availability and range of tobacco products for sale. The availability of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products was assessed as a comparison. The majority of pharmacies in Massachusetts possessed a tobacco licence (69%), and pharmacies made up 9% of licenced tobacco retailers. Among pharmacies surveyed that reported selling tobacco (90%), cigarettes were the most available tobacco product for sale (100%), followed by cigars (69%), little cigars/cigarillos (66%), moist snuff (53%), pipe tobacco (49%), roll-your-own tobacco (34%), snus (14%), dissolvable tobacco (11%) and electronic cigarettes (2%). Nearly all pharmacies selling tobacco offered the nicotine patch (100%), gum (100%) and lozenge (98%). Tobacco-free pharmacy policies would affect a majority of Massachusetts pharmacies and remove a variety of tobacco products from their store shelves. Further, nearly one in ten tobacco retailers would be eliminated by prohibiting tobacco sales in Massachusetts pharmacies statewide.

  11. Contribution of suppression difficulty and lessons learned in forecasting fire suppression operations productivity: A methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Armando González-Cabán

    2016-01-01

    We propose an economic analysis using utility and productivity, and efficiency theories to provide fire managers a decision support tool to determine the most efficient fire management programs levels. By incorporating managers’ accumulated fire suppression experiences (capitalized experience) in the analysis we help fire managers...

  12. Intervariability and intravariability of bone morphogenetic proteins in commercially available demineralized bone matrix products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Hyun W; Zhao, Li; Kanim, Linda E A; Wong, Pamela; Delamarter, Rick B; Dawson, Edgar G

    2006-05-20

    Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detect bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) 2, 4, and 7 in 9 commercially available ("off the shelf") demineralized bone matrix (DBM) product formulations using 3 different manufacturer's production lots of each DBM formulation. To evaluate and compare the quantity of BMPs among several different DBM formulations (inter-product variability), as well as examine the variability of these proteins in different production lots within the same DBM formulation (intra-product variability). DBMs are commonly used to augment available bone graft in spinal fusion procedures. Surgeons are presented with an ever-increasing variety of commercially available human DBMs from which to choose. Yet, there is limited information on a specific DBM product's osteoinductive efficacy, potency, and constancy. There were protein extracts from each DBM sample separately dialyzed 4 times against distilled water at 4 degrees C for 48 hours. The amount of BMP-2, BMP-4, and BMP-7 was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS.: The concentrations of detected BMP-2 and BMP-7 were low for all DBM formulations, only nanograms of BMP were extracted from each gram of DBM (20.2-120.6 ng BMP-2/g DBM product; 54.2-226.8 ng BMP-7/g DBM). The variability of BMP concentrations among different lots of the same DBM formulation, intra-product variability, was higher than the variability of concentrations among different DBM formulations, inter-product variability (coefficient of variation range BMP-2 [16.34% to 76.01%], P DBMs are low, in the order of 1 x 10(-9) g of BMP/g of DBM. There is higher variability in concentration of BMPs among 3 different lots of the same DBM formulation than among different DBM formulations. This variability questions DBM products' reliability and, possibly, efficacy in providing consistent osteoinduction.

  13. Evaluation of globally available precipitation data products as input for water balance models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebrenz, H.; Bárdossy, A.

    2009-04-01

    Subject of this study is the evaluation of globally available precipitation data products, which are intended to be used as input variables for water balance models in ungauged basins. The selected data sources are a) the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), b) the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and c) the Climate Research Unit (CRU), resulting into twelve globally available data products. The data products imply different data bases, different derivation routines and varying resolutions in time and space. For validation purposes, the ground data from South Africa were screened on homogeneity and consistency by various tests and an outlier detection using multi-linear regression was performed. External Drift Kriging was subsequently applied on the ground data and the resulting precipitation arrays were compared to the different products with respect to quantity and variance.

  14. Analysis of Two Commercially Available Bortezomib Products: Differences in Assay of Active Agent and Impurity Profile

    OpenAIRE

    Byrn, Stephen R.; Tishmack, Patrick A.; Milton, Mark J.; van de Velde, Helgi

    2011-01-01

    The analytical properties of two commercially available bortezomib products (VELCADE® and Bortenat) were compared using nuclear magnetic resonance, mass spectrometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, and gas chromatography. The data showed differences between the two products. Based on these data, Bortenat samples contained more active ingredients than indicated by the label (mean, 116.5% and 117.9% of label, in 2-mg and 3.5-mg vials, respectively). In comparison, VELCADE samples conta...

  15. Characterization of Available Light for Seagrass and Patch Reef Productivity in Sugarloaf Key, Lower Florida Keys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Toro-Farmer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Light availability is an important factor driving primary productivity in benthic ecosystems, but in situ and remote sensing measurements of light quality are limited for coral reefs and seagrass beds. We evaluated the productivity responses of a patch reef and a seagrass site in the Lower Florida Keys to ambient light availability and spectral quality. In situ optical properties were characterized utilizing moored and water column bio-optical and hydrographic measurements. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP was also estimated for these study sites using benthic productivity chambers. Our results show higher spectral light attenuation and absorption, and lower irradiance during low tide in the patch reef, tracking the influx of materials from shallower coastal areas. In contrast, the intrusion of clearer surface Atlantic Ocean water caused lower values of spectral attenuation and absorption, and higher irradiance in the patch reef during high tide. Storms during the studied period, with winds >10 m·s−1, caused higher spectral attenuation values. A spatial gradient of NEP was observed, from high productivity in the shallow seagrass area, to lower productivity in deeper patch reefs. The highest daytime NEP was observed in the seagrass, with values of almost 0.4 g·O2·m−2·h−1. Productivity at the patch reef area was lower in May than during October 2012 (mean = 0.137 and 0.177 g·O2·m−2·h−1, respectively. Higher photosynthetic active radiation (PAR levels measured above water and lower light attenuation in the red region of the visible spectrum (~666 to ~699 nm had a positive correlation with NEP. Our results indicate that changes in light availability and quality by suspended or resuspended particles limit benthic productivity in the Florida Keys.

  16. Production of {sup 177}Lu for targeted radionuclide therapy: Available options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dah, Ashutosh [Isotope Production and Applications Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Mumbai (India); Pillai, Maroor Raghavan Ambikalmajan [Molecular Group of Companies. Kerala (India); Knapp, Furn F. Jr. [Medical Isotopes Program, Isotope Dept. Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This review provides a comprehensive summary of the production of {sup 177}Lu to meet expected future research and clinical demands. Availability of options represents the cornerstone for sustainable growth for the routine production of adequate activity levels of {sup 177}Lu having the required quality for preparation of a variety of {sup 177}Lu-labeled radiopharmaceuticals. The tremendous prospects associated with production of {sup 177}Lu for use in targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) dictate that a holistic consideration should evaluate all governing factors that determine its success. While both “direct” and “indirect” reactor production routes offer the possibility for sustainable {sup 177}Lu availability, there are several issues and challenges that must be considered to realize the full potential of these production strategies. This article presents a mini review on the latest developments, current status, key challenges and possibilities for the near future. A broad understanding and discussion of the issues associated with {sup 177}Lu production and processing approaches would not only ensure sustained growth and future expansion for the availability and use of {sup 177}Lu-labeled radiopharmaceuticals, but also help future developments.

  17. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  18. Forecasting ofuseful life of the structures of a production building during operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pshenichkina Valeriya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a probabilistic concept of practical evaluation of the individual resource of structures of industrial buildings and structures in operation. The results of calculation of a monolithic reinforced concrete overpass for safety and durability are given. The quantitative values of the resource are obtained for a given security of operability.

  19. Combining SKU-level sales forecasts from models and experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe study the performance of SKU-level sales forecasts which linearly combine statistical model forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a large and unique database containing model forecasts for monthly sales of various pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by about fifty experts, we

  20. Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena; Rosenberg, Robert

    2012-01-01

    AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

  1. Characterization of available light for seagrass and patch reef productivity in Sugarloaf Key, Lower Florida Keys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro-Farmer, Gerardo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Vega-Rodriguez, Maria; Melo, Nelson; Yates, Kimberly K.; Johns, Elizabeth; Cerdeira-Estrada, Sergio; Herwitz, Stan R.

    2016-01-01

    Light availability is an important factor driving primary productivity in benthic ecosystems, but in situ and remote sensing measurements of light quality are limited for coral reefs and seagrass beds. We evaluated the productivity responses of a patch reef and a seagrass site in the Lower Florida Keys to ambient light availability and spectral quality. In situ optical properties were characterized utilizing moored and water column bio-optical and hydrographic measurements. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was also estimated for these study sites using benthic productivity chambers. Our results show higher spectral light attenuation and absorption, and lower irradiance during low tide in the patch reef, tracking the influx of materials from shallower coastal areas. In contrast, the intrusion of clearer surface Atlantic Ocean water caused lower values of spectral attenuation and absorption, and higher irradiance in the patch reef during high tide. Storms during the studied period, with winds >10 m·s−1, caused higher spectral attenuation values. A spatial gradient of NEP was observed, from high productivity in the shallow seagrass area, to lower productivity in deeper patch reefs. The highest daytime NEP was observed in the seagrass, with values of almost 0.4 g·O2·m−2·h−1. Productivity at the patch reef area was lower in May than during October 2012 (mean = 0.137 and 0.177 g·O2·m−2·h−1, respectively). Higher photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) levels measured above water and lower light attenuation in the red region of the visible spectrum (~666 to ~699 nm) had a positive correlation with NEP. Our results indicate that changes in light availability and quality by suspended or resuspended particles limit benthic productivity in the Florida Keys.

  2. Availability and characteristics of betel products in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Melissa; Deshpande, Laxmikant; Balster, Robert L

    2008-09-01

    Betel use involves oral placement of shards of areca nut (Areca catechu palm seed containing the cholinergic agonist arecoline) wrapped with slaked lime in a betel leaf (Piper betle plant) or various chopped or powdered products containing areca nut and/or parts of the betel plant. Additives to this mixture include catechu (areca palm extract), spices/ sweeteners (e.g., saccharin, cloves), and/or tobacco. Betel use is most common in Asia and East India; however, little is known about the availability and characteristics of these products outside of this region. Thus, a representative sample of betel products and additives was purchased in the Richmond, Virginia area. Five venues were visited between March and May, 2006. Products successfully purchased were those containing betel alone (seven), betel/tobacco (three), tobacco alone (four), and additives (four). Most betel products listed ingredients on the packaging, though some did not explicitly distinguish between those with versus without tobacco. Importantly, seven of seven betel alone and one of three betel/tobacco products omitted any health-related warnings. All products were inexpensive and relatively obtainable in the groceries visited. More research is warranted in order to accurately estimate product emergence into the U.S. and other world markets, and the consequent impact on public health.

  3. AVAILABILITY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BETEL PRODUCTS IN THE U.S.†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Melissa; Deshpande, Laxmikant; Balster, Robert L.

    2009-01-01

    Betel use involves oral placement of shards of areca nut (Areca catechu palm seed containing the cholinergic agonist arecoline) wrapped with slaked lime in a betel leaf (Piper betle plant) or various chopped or powdered products containing areca nut and/or parts of the betel plant. Additives to this mixture include catechu (areca palm extract), spices/sweeteners (e.g., saccharin, cloves), and/or tobacco. Betel use is most common in Asia and East India; however, little is known about the availability and characteristics of these products outside of this region. Thus, a representative sample of betel products and additives was purchased in the Richmond, Virginia area. Five venues were visited between March and May, 2006. Products successfully purchased were those containing betel alone (seven), betel/tobacco (three), tobacco alone (four), and additives (four). Most betel products listed ingredients on the packaging, though some did not explicitly distinguish between those with versus without tobacco. Importantly, seven of seven betel alone and one of three betel/tobacco products omitted any health-related warnings. All products were inexpensive and relatively obtainable in the groceries visited. More research is warranted in order to accurately estimate product emergence into the U.S. and other world markets, and the consequent impact on public health. PMID:19004423

  4. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  5. Market Assessment and Product Evaluation of Probiotic Containing Dietary Supplements Available in Bangladesh Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjuman Ara Begum

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Probiotics containing food supplements available in Bangladesh market were identified and collected for assessment. To assess their label claim, they were resuspended into sterile distilled water. Then, series dilutions of each sample solution were prepared and immediately plated out, in duplicate, into De Man Rogosa Sharpe (MRS agar. These plates were then incubated at 37°C for 48 hours and colonies were counted. Viable cell numbers stated on the labels were compared with actual viable cell numbers. To assess the viability of the probiotics included in the products, probiotic strains were isolated from each of the four products and screened for inhibitory activity against six indicator strains. It was surprisingly found that although the viable cell numbers of all supplements were three to four log cycles lower than label claim of the products, however, this problem did not affect the inhibitory activity of the probiotic strains against indicator strains according to in vitro assessment. Legislation and regulation regarding prebiotic-probiotic containing products should be built up in Bangladesh to ensure quality products supply to the consumers. Moreover, manufacturers of probiotic containing products should take the responsibility for providing the consumer with scientifically and legally correct information.

  6. The Analysis of the Available Technology of Exploiting and Applying Biohydrocarbons for Fuel Production Part I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gielo-Klepacz Halina

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the current state of knowledge in the area of applying biohydrocarbons for fuel production, especially in aeronautical applications and to power compression-ignition engines. The technologies based on biochemical and thermal/chemical conversion of biomass are described. Technological potential of these technologies is evaluated. The article is based on the literature review.

  7. Assessment of the level of farm labor availability and productivity in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of the level of farm labor availability and productivity in Imo state, Nigeria. OC Korie. Abstract. No Abstract. International Journal of Tropical Agriculture and Food Systems Vol. 1 (3) 2007: pp. 270-274. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  8. Testing knowledge of whole English collocations available for use in written production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Revier, Robert Lee

    2014-01-01

    Testing knowledge of whole English collocations available for use in written production: Developing tests for use with intermediate and advanced Danish learners (dansk resume nedenfor) The present foreign language acquisition research derives its impetus from four assumptions regarding knowledge...... of English collocations. These are: (a) collocation knowledge can be conceptualized as an independent knowledge construct, (b) collocations are lexical items in their own right, (c) testing of collocation knowledge should also target knowledge of whole collocations, and (d) the learning burden of a whole...... the development of Danish EFL learners’ productive knowledge of whole English collocations. Five empirical studies were designed to generate information that would shed light on the reliability and validity of the CONTRIX as a measure of collocation knowledge available for use in written production. Study 1...

  9. Agricultural production - Phase 2. Indonesia. Methods for increasing ruminant production from available feed resources in Indonesia - nutrition-reproduction interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Entwistle, K.W.

    1991-01-01

    This report contains summarized data on the effects of urea-molasses block (UMB) food supplements in dairy and beef cattle, sheep and goats in Java. In addition to improvements in growth and milk production, UMB supplements cause a significant enhancement of ovulation rate and hence fecundity in sheep and goats. Similar data for dairy cattle are not yet available. 5 tabs

  10. Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuba, Zoltán; Bottyán, Zsolt

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1-0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000-2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.

  11. Summer 2011 forecast analysis. Forecast analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance in France for the summer of 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-06-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the summer of 2011

  12. EMC: Air Quality Forecast Home page

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modeling with NCEP NMMB ( Z. Janjic) ECMWF GEMS Project WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System Air Quality Forecast Links U.S. AQ Forecast Products Canadian AQ Forecastsp Navy Aerosol Prediction

  13. Availability of steam generator against thermal disturbance of hydrogen production system coupled to HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibata, Taiju; Nishihara, Tetsuo; Hada, Kazuhiko; Shiozawa, Shusaku

    1996-01-01

    One of the safety issues to couple a hydrogen production system to an HTGR is how the reactor coolability can be maintained against anticipated abnormal reduction of heat removal (thermal disturbance) of the hydrogen production system. Since such a thermal disturbance is thought to frequently occur, it is desired against the thermal disturbance to keep reactor coolability by means other than reactor scram. Also, it is thought that the development of a passive cooling system for such a thermal disturbance will be necessary from a public acceptance point of view in a future HTGR-hydrogen production system. We propose a SG as the passive cooling system which can keep the reactor coolability during a thermal disturbance of a hydrogen production system. This paper describes the proposed steam generator (SG) for the HTGR-hydrogen production system and a result of transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of the total system, showing availability of the SG against a thermal disturbance of the hydrogen production system in case of the HTTR-steam reforming hydrogen production system. (author)

  14. Isotope materials availability and services for target production at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ratledge, J.E.; Dahl, T.L.; Ottinger, C.L.; Aaron, W.S.; Adair, H.L.

    1987-01-01

    Materials available through the Isotope Distribution Program include separated stable isotopes, byproduct radioisotopes, and research quantities of source and special nuclear materials. Isotope products are routinely available in the forms listed in the product description section of the Isotopes Products and Services Catalog distributed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Different forms can be provided in some cases, usually at additional cost. Routinely available services include cyclotron target irradiations, fabrication of special physical forms, source encapsulation, ion implantation, and special purifications. Materials and services that are not offered as part of the routine distribution program may be made available from commercial sources in the United States. Specific forms of isotopic research materials include thin films and foils for use as accelerator targets, metal or other compounds in the form of bars or wires, and metal foils. Methods of fabrication include evaporation, sputtering, rolling, electrolytic deposition, pressing, sintering, and casting. High-purity metal forms of plutonium, americium, and curium are prepared by vacuum reduction/distillation. Both fissionable and nonfissionable neutron dosimeters are prepared for determining the neutron energy spectra, flux, and fluence at various locations within a reactor. Details on what materials are available and how the materials and related services can be obtained from ORNL are described. (orig.)

  15. Occupational and traning requirements for expanded coal production (as of October 1980). [Forecasting to 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-04-01

    This study was initiated because of the anticipated rapid growth in trained personnel requirements in bituminous coal mining, and because the industry had already experienced significant problems in recruiting skilled manpower in the course of its employment expansion during the 1970's. Employment in bituminous coal mining is projected to nearly double, from 234,000 in 1977 to 456,000 in 1995, as the net result of a projected threefold increase in coal output to nearly 2.0 billion in 1995 and of an expected significant improvement in overall productivity. A large proportion of current coal mining employees are in occupations which require significant amounts of training for effective work performance. Employment growth to 1955 will be most rapid in those occupations requiring the greatest training or educational preparation. The new training infrastructure which has emerged to meet these needs includes both internal, company-operated training programs and those offered by various external providers. Among the latter are: Vocational schools, community colleges, and university extension departments; public agencies, such as MSHA and state mining departments; coal industry trade associations; and vendors or training consultant groups. The Conference Board survey of coal industry training programs, conducted in late 1979, was designed to provide comprehensive data on the scope of the coal industry's own training activities and on related training issues, based on a mail questionnaire survey addressed to all companies producing 300,000 or more tons per year. The training programs are described with emphasis on time changes, regional effects and implications for a coordinated plan.

  16. Availability and quality of illegitimate somatropin products obtained from the Internet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vida, Róbert György; Fittler, András; Mikulka, Ivett; Ábrahám, Eszter; Sándor, Viktor; Kilár, Ferenc; Botz, Lajos

    2017-02-01

    Background Growth hormones are widely available on the Internet for those who want to enhance their physical performance and improve body satisfaction. Illegitimate websites market somatropin injections without medical prescription and encourage misuse. Customers potentially put their health at risk when purchasing parenteral medications online. Objective The objective of our study was to evaluate the online market of no-prescription somatropin products and to analyse and document Internet pharmacy characteristics, distribution and pharmaceutical quality. Setting Websites indexed in Google promoting somatropin for sale direct to patients. Method Websites promoting the sale of growth hormone products were identified and analysed from June to August 2014. Internet vendor sites were evaluated to identify possible patient and medication safety concerns. Website characteristics, delivery time, storage conditions, packaging and attached product information were assessed. Investigation of the somatropin content was achieved using capillary electrophoresis with UV detection and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. Main outcome measure Accessibility and quality of somatropin injections. Results Seventeen individual Internet vendor websites distributed somatropin products directly to patients, majority (94%) did not require a valid medical prescription before dispensing the products. Majority (70%) of Internet pharmacies displayed no medical information and none (0%) of the vendors displayed any regulatory body logo. All online samples had significantly (p < 0.001) lower somatropin concentration than labelled. Conclusion Our results clearly illustrate that prescription only biologic drugs are widely available online and can be easily accessed by anyone. Unprofessional distribution and handling is likely to cause degradation and possible patient safety concerns.

  17. Optimizing Regional Food and Energy Production under Limited Water Availability through Integrated Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junlian Gao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Across the world, human activity is approaching planetary boundaries. In northwest China, in particular, the coal industry and agriculture are competing for key limited inputs of land and water. In this situation, the traditional approach to planning the development of each sector independently fails to deliver sustainable solutions, as solutions made in sectorial ‘silos’ are often suboptimal for the entire economy. We propose a spatially detailed cost-minimizing model for coal and agricultural production in a region under constraints on land and water availability. We apply the model to the case study of Shanxi province, China. We show how such an integrated optimization, which takes maximum advantage of the spatial heterogeneity in resource abundance, could help resolve the conflicts around the water–food–energy (WFE nexus and assist in its management. We quantify the production-possibility frontiers under different water-availability scenarios and demonstrate that in water-scarce regions, like Shanxi, the production capacity and corresponding production solutions are highly sensitive to water constraints. The shadow prices estimated in the model could be the basis for intelligent differentiated water pricing, not only to enable the water-resource transfer between agriculture and the coal industry, and across regions, but also to achieve cost-effective WFE management.

  18. Analysis and forecasting of profit by using simulation models for growing pea in conventional and organic plant production in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bean is the third most important food legume crop of the world after soybean and groundnuts; it provides an important source of dietary proteins, carbohydrates, minerals and fiber essential in human nutrition worldwide. A high, per capita bean consumption of 13 to 40 kg yr-1 was observed in developing countries. In EU developed countries, market of the organic products is growing in average 10 % per annum, but this growth has not been followed by production growth and this is the chance for Serbian products. Organic bean growing enables the producers a higher profit. Expenses in organic production are higher (2170 EUR/ha than those in conventional bean production (1825 EUR/ha. However, net profit in the organic production was estimated to 1440 EUR/ha, while the profit in the conventional concept was 315 EUR/ha. Also, profitability rate and the economic efficiency coefficient had higher values when growing bean in organic concept.

  19. Assessing water availability over peninsular Malaysia using public domain satellite data products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M I; Hashim, M; Zin, H S M

    2014-01-01

    Water availability monitoring is an essential task for water resource sustainability and security. In this paper, the assessment of satellite remote sensing technique for determining water availability is reported. The water-balance analysis is used to compute the spatio-temporal water availability with main inputs; the precipitation and actual evapotranspiration rate (AET), both fully derived from public-domain satellite products of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and MODIS, respectively. Both these satellite products were first subjected to calibration to suit corresponding selected local precipitation and AET samples. Multi-temporal data sets acquired 2000-2010 were used in this study. The results of study, indicated strong agreement of monthly water availability with the basin flow rate (r 2 = 0.5, p < 0.001). Similar agreements were also noted between the estimated annual average water availability with the in-situ measurement. It is therefore concluded that the method devised in this study provide a new alternative for water availability mapping over large area, hence offers the only timely and cost-effective method apart from providing comprehensive spatio-temporal patterns, crucial in water resource planning to ensure water security

  20. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  1. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  2. Retrieving aerosol in a cloudy environment: aerosol product availability as a function of spatial resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Remer

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of using satellite observations to retrieve aerosol properties in a cloudy environment is to prevent contamination of the aerosol signal from clouds, while maintaining sufficient aerosol product yield to satisfy specific applications. We investigate aerosol retrieval availability at different instrument pixel resolutions using the standard MODIS aerosol cloud mask applied to MODIS data and supplemented with a new GOES-R cloud mask applied to GOES data for a domain covering North America and surrounding oceans. Aerosol product availability is not the same as the cloud free fraction and takes into account the techniques used in the MODIS algorithm to avoid clouds, reduce noise and maintain sufficient numbers of aerosol retrievals. The inherent spatial resolution of each instrument, 0.5×0.5 km for MODIS and 1×1 km for GOES, is systematically degraded to 1×1, 2×2, 1×4, 4×4 and 8×8 km resolutions and then analyzed as to how that degradation would affect the availability of an aerosol retrieval, assuming an aerosol product resolution at 8×8 km. The analysis is repeated, separately, for near-nadir pixels and those at larger view angles to investigate the effect of pixel growth at oblique angles on aerosol retrieval availability. The results show that as nominal pixel size increases, availability decreases until at 8×8 km 70% to 85% of the retrievals available at 0.5 km, nadir, have been lost. The effect at oblique angles is to further decrease availability over land but increase availability over ocean, because sun glint is found at near-nadir view angles. Finer resolution sensors (i.e., 1×1, 2×2 or even 1×4 km will retrieve aerosols in partly cloudy scenes significantly more often than sensors with nadir views of 4×4 km or coarser. Large differences in the results of the two cloud masks designed for MODIS aerosol and GOES cloud products strongly reinforce that cloud masks must be developed with specific purposes in mind and

  3. Determination of Cr, Cd, Sn, and Pb in Selected Herbal Products Available in Philippine Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan S. De Vera

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The growing popularity of herbal products in the Philippines makes it imperative to monitor and ensure safety of consumers from metal contaminants. In this study, trace concentrations of Cr, Cd, Sn, and Pb in herbal products were simultaneously measured using a microwaveassisted digestion as sample pre-treatment and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS for elemental detection. Using the optimized method, recoveries of ERM CD281, the primary cer t i f ied reference material (CRM used, were found to be between 80-89%, and the method detection limits (MDL for Cr, Cd, Sn, and Pb were 0.15, 0.07, 0.3, and 0.14 μg/L, respectively. The linear ranges for Cr and other elements (Cd, Sn, and Pb were 0.01-500 and 0.01-50 μg/L, respectively. All correlation coeff icients were 0.9999 or better. Most of the products tested had measurable trace metal concentrations, which were below the suggested maximum limits in herbal products. However, one product derived from mangosteen exceeded the limit for Cd (0.42 mg/kg. Subsequent analysis of metal content in tea infusions showed that only a small fraction of metals may leach out, suggesting that consumption of tea infusions pose lesser risks. The order of abundance of metals found in herbal products was Cr>Pb>Cd>Sn. The variability of metal concentrations in herbal products underlines the fact that many plant ingredients are susceptible to contamination, and quality control during processing must be improved to minimize the possibility of contamination. The results of this study suggest that vigilant monitoring of herbal products is imperative to avoid exposure to trace metal contamination.

  4. Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

    2003-07-01

    Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

  5. Seasonal prediction for Southern Africa: Maximising the skill from forecast systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available /system development started in early 1990s ? SAWS, UCT, UP, Wits (statistical forecast systems) ? South African Long-Lead Forecast Forum ? SARCOF started in 1997 ? consensus through discussions ? Late 1990s ? started to use AGCMs and post-processing ? At SAWS... Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions RO C ar ea s Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal Operational Forecast Skill From CONSENSUS discussions Verification over 7 years of consensus forecast production New objective multi...

  6. Guide for prioritizing power plant productivity improvement projects: handbook of availability improvement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    As part of its program to help improve electrical power plant productivity, the Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a methodology for evaluating productivity improvement projects. This handbook presents a simplified version of this methodology called the Availability Improvement Methodology (AIM), which provides a systematic approach for prioritizing plant improvement projects. Also included in this handbook is a description of data taking requirements necessary to support the AIM methodology, benefit/cost analysis, and root cause analysis for tracing persistent power plant problems. In applying the AIM methodology, utility engineers should be mindful that replacement power costs are frequently greater for forced outages than for planned outages. Equivalent availability includes both. A cost-effective ranking of alternative plant improvement projects must discern between those projects which will reduce forced outages and those which might reduce planned outages. As is the case with any analytical procedure, engineering judgement must be exercised with respect to results of purely mathematical calculations

  7. The potential impacts of biomass feedstock production on water resource availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, K C; Hunt, P G; Cantrell, K B; Ro, K S

    2010-03-01

    Biofuels are a major topic of global interest and technology development. Whereas bioenergy crop production is highly dependent on water, bioenergy development requires effective allocation and management of water. The objectives of this investigation were to assess the bioenergy production relative to the impacts on water resource related factors: (1) climate and weather impact on water supplies for biomass production; (2) water use for major bioenergy crop production; and (3) potential alternatives to improve water supplies for bioenergy. Shifts to alternative bioenergy crops with greater water demand may produce unintended consequences for both water resources and energy feedstocks. Sugarcane and corn require 458 and 2036 m(3) water/m(3) ethanol produced, respectively. The water requirements for corn grain production to meet the US-DOE Billion-Ton Vision may increase approximately 6-fold from 8.6 to 50.1 km(3). Furthermore, climate change is impacting water resources throughout the world. In the western US, runoff from snowmelt is occurring earlier altering the timing of water availability. Weather extremes, both drought and flooding, have occurred more frequently over the last 30 years than the previous 100 years. All of these weather events impact bioenergy crop production. These events may be partially mitigated by alternative water management systems that offer potential for more effective water use and conservation. A few potential alternatives include controlled drainage and new next-generation livestock waste treatment systems. Controlled drainage can increase water available to plants and simultaneously improve water quality. New livestock waste treatments systems offer the potential to utilize treated wastewater to produce bioenergy crops. New technologies for cellulosic biomass conversion via thermochemical conversion offer the potential for using more diverse feedstocks with dramatically reduced water requirements. The development of bioenergy

  8. Characterization of biomasses available in the region of North-East India for production of biofuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasmal, Soumya; Goud, Vaibhav V.; Mohanty, Kaustubha

    2012-01-01

    The lignocellulosic materials are cheap and readily available either in the form of agricultural waste or forest residues. These materials can be used as a source for energy production either in the gaseous form (CO, H 2 etc) or in liquid form (ethanol, butanol etc) to meet the rising demand of energy. The reign of lignocellulosic materials for energy production is a proven fact in this era of energy research. The present study focuses on characterization of three biomass samples namely areca nut husk (Areca catheu), moj (Albizia lucida) and bonbogori (Ziziphus rugosa), available in the region of North-East India. Physical and chemical analysis of these lignocellulosic biomass samples were performed using X-ray diffraction techniques, thermogravimetric analysis, FTIR, Raman spectroscopy and CHNSO analysis. Maximum crystalinity was observed in areca nut husk fiber (63.84%) followed by moj (46.43%) and bonbogori (42.46%). The calorific values of all the biomasses were found within the range of 17 MJ/kg to 22 MJ/kg. All these properties combined together per se shows that areca nut husk, bonbogori and moj are potential sources for biofuel production. -- Highlights: ► Non-conventional biomasses were considered in this study. ► Complete characterization of these biomasses are reported. ► Maximum crystalinity was observed in areca nut husk fiber followed by moj and bonbogori. ► Results confirmed that these biomasses can be utilized for biofuel production.

  9. Marijuana as a 'concept' flavour for cigar products: availability and price near California schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Schleicher, Nina C; Ababseh, Kimberly; Johnson, Trent O; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2017-10-12

    To assess the retail availability of cigar products that refer to marijuana and the largest package size of cigarillos available for ≤$1. Trained data collectors conducted marketing surveillance in a random sample of licensed tobacco retailers that sold little cigars/cigarillos (LCCs) (n=530) near a statewide sample of middle and high schools (n=132) in California. Multilevel models examined the presence of marijuana co-marketing and cigarillo pack size as a function of school/neighbourhood characteristics and adjusted for store type. Of stores that sold LCCs, approximately 62% contained at least one form of marijuana co-marketing: 53.2% sold cigar wraps marketed as blunt wraps, 27.2% sold cigarillos marketed as blunts and 26.0% sold at least one LCC with a marijuana-related 'concept' flavour. Controlling for store type, marijuana co-marketing was more prevalent in school neighbourhoods with a higher proportion of young residents (ages 5-17 years) and with lower median household income. Nearly all stores that sold LCCs (87.9%) offered the products for ≤$1. However, significantly larger packs at similarly low prices were available near schools in lower-income neighbourhoods and with a lower percentage of Hispanic students. Understanding how the tobacco industry manipulates cigar products and marketing to capitalise on the appeal of marijuana to youth and other priority populations is important to inform regulation, particularly for flavoured tobacco products. In addition, the retail availability of five and six packs of LCCs for ≤$1 near California schools underscores policy recommendations to establish minimum prices for multipacks. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  10. The Coupling of Ecosystem Productivity and Water Availability in Dryland Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Barron-Gafford, G.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover and climatic change will alter biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide depending, in part, on feedbacks between biotic activity and water availability. Eddy covariance observations allow us to estimate ecosystem-scale productivity and respiration, and these datasets are now becoming sufficiently mature to advance understanding of these ecohydrological interactions. Here we use a network of sites in semiarid western North America representing gradients of water availability and functional plant type. We examine how precipitation (P) controls evapotranspiration (ET), net ecosystem production (NEP), and its component fluxes of ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP). Despite the high variability in seasonal and annual precipitation timing and amounts that we expect to influence ecosystem function, we find persistent overall relationships between P or ET and the fluxes of NEP, Reco and GEP across the network, indicating a commonality and resilience in ecosystem soil and plant response to water availability. But we also observe several important site differences such as prior seasonal legacy effects on subsequent fluxes which vary depending on dominant plant functional type. For example, multiyear droughts, episodic cool-season droughts, and hard winter freezes seem to affect the herbaceous species differently than the woody ones. Nevertheless, the overall, strong coupling between hydrologic and ecologic processes at these sites bolsters our ability to predict the response of dryland ecosystems to future precipitation change.

  11. The effect of backroom size on retail product availability – operational and technological solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikola Milićević

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Amid the conditions of increasingly fierce competition, retailers are doing their best to meet the demands of their customers as efficiently as possible. Through the ever-growing level of product availability they raise the quality of service, which is positively reflected not only on the growth in sales, but also customer satisfaction. In the opposite case, the out-ofstock problem emerges, affecting not only customers, but also retailers and their suppliers. Bearing in mind, that the causes of the given problem occur most frequently in the last metres of the supply chain, in this paper we investigated the effect of backroom size on product availability, depending on the retail format. For this purpose, we used moderated regression analysis on the sample of 80 fast moving consumer goods in retail stores located on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The obtained results pointed to opposite movements in the smallest and the largest format. Whereas in superettes the out-of-stock level lowers with the increase in the backroom size, it tends to drop in hypermarkets. Therefore, we pointed to some in-store problems that cause product stock-outs in different store formats. In addition to indicating the potential causes of analyzed relations, this paper also presents certain operational and technological solutions related to their mitigation.

  12. Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

  13. A Comparison of Various Forecasting Methods for Autocorrelated Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Kandananond

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of a whole supply chain system. Sometimes, the nature of consumer products might cause difficulties in forecasting for the future demands because of its complicated structure. In this study, two machine learning methods, artificial neural network (ANN and support vector machine (SVM, and a traditional approach, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, were utilized to predict the demand for consumer products. The training data used were the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. Initially, each set of data was analysed using Ljung‐Box‐Q statistics to test for autocorrelation. Afterwards, each method was applied to different sets of data. The results indicated that the SVM method had a better forecast quality (in terms of MAPE than ANN and ARIMA in every category of products.

  14. Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1991-01-01

    ...) how FCIC can improve its forecast accuracy. We found that FCIC's corn, wheat, and soybeans price forecasts exhibit large bias errors that exceed those of other available alternative forecasts and that FCIC would have spent...

  15. Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

    2014-05-01

    Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In

  16. Simulation of milk production by dairy cows fed sugarcane top-based diets with locally available supplements under Indian condition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Behera, U.K.; Kebreab, E.; Dijkstra, J.; Assis, A.G.; France, J.

    2005-01-01

    A model of sugarcane digestion was applied to indicate the suitability of various locally available supplements for enhancing milk production of Indian crossbred dairy cattle. Milk production was calculated according to simulated energy, lipogenic, glucogenic and aminogenic substrate availability.

  17. Optimizing the product-based availability of a buffered industrial process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Michael; Martz, Harry F.; Berg, Eric C.; Koehler, Arthur J.

    2006-01-01

    Many industrial processes for discrete consumable products consist of a series (or set) of sequential process operations (or subsystems) which are de-coupled by means of in-process storage buffers. Each subsystem of such a process contains one or more parallel coupled or uncoupled operating lanes. We describe the use of a discrete-event simulation model for determining the availability of such a process. We likewise define and use a genetic algorithm to determine process designs and operating rules that have high availability. A 65-variable example, consisting of four operating subsystems with at most four lanes per subsystem, is used to illustrate the method. The results for this and similar real-world applications indicate that, by applying this methodology, it is possible to design buffered industrial processes having high availability

  18. Preventive maintenance and the interval availability distribution of an unreliable production system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dijkhuizen, G. van; Heijden, M. van der

    1999-01-01

    Traditionally, the optimal preventive maintenance interval for an unreliable production system has been determined by maximizing its limiting availability. Nowadays, it is widely recognized that this performance measure does not always provide relevant information for practical purposes. This is particularly true for order-driven manufacturing systems, in which due date performance has become a more important, and even a competitive factor. Under these circumstances, the so-called interval availability distribution is often seen as a more appropriate performance measure. Surprisingly enough, the relation between preventive maintenance and interval availability has received little attention in the existing literature. In this article, a series of mathematical models and optimization techniques is presented, with which the optimal preventive maintenance interval can be determined from an interval availability point of view, rather than from a limiting availability perspective. Computational results for a class of representative test problems indicate that significant improvements of up to 30% in the guaranteed interval availability can be obtained, by increasing preventive maintenance frequencies somewhere between 10 and 70%

  19. Responses of plant available water and forest productivity to variably layered coarse textured soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Mingbin; Barbour, Lee; Elshorbagy, Amin; Si, Bing; Zettl, Julie

    2010-05-01

    Reforestation is a primary end use for reconstructed soils following oil sands mining in northern Alberta, Canada. Limited soil water conditions strongly restrict plant growth. Previous research has shown that layering of sandy soils can produce enhanced water availability for plant growth; however, the effect of gradation on these enhancements is not well defined. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of soil texture (gradation and layering) on plant available water and consequently on forest productivity for reclaimed coarse textured soils. A previously validated system dynamics (SD) model of soil moisture dynamics was coupled with ecophysiological and biogeochemical processes model, Biome-BGC-SD, to simulate forest dynamics for different soil profiles. These profiles included contrasting 50 cm textural layers of finer sand overlying coarser sand in which the sand layers had either a well graded or uniform soil texture. These profiles were compared to uniform profiles of the same sands. Three tree species of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), white spruce (Picea glauce Voss.), and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) were simulated using a 50 year climatic data base from northern Alberta. Available water holding capacity (AWHC) was used to identify soil moisture regime, and leaf area index (LAI) and net primary production (NPP) were used as indices of forest productivity. Published physiological parameters were used in the Biome-BGC-SD model. Relative productivity was assessed by comparing model predictions to the measured above-ground biomass dynamics for the three tree species, and was then used to study the responses of forest leaf area index and potential productivity to AWHC on different soil profiles. Simulated results indicated soil layering could significantly increase AWHC in the 1-m profile for coarse textured soils. This enhanced AWHC could result in an increase in forest LAI and NPP. The increased extent varied with soil

  20. North American water availability under stress and duress: building understanding from simulations, observations and data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.; Atchley, A. L.; Hector, B.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying the available freshwater for human use and ecological function depends on fluxes and stores that are hard to observe. Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest terrestrial flux of water behind precipitation but is observed with low spatial density. Likewise, groundwater is the largest freshwater store, yet is equally uncertain. The ability to upscale observations of these variables is an additional complication; point measurements are made at scales orders of magnitude smaller than remote sensing data products. Integrated hydrologic models that simulate continental extents at fine spatial resolution are now becoming an additional tool to constrain fluxes and address interconnections. For example, recent work has shown connections between water table depth and transpiration partitioning, and demonstrated the ability to reconcile point observations and large-scale inferences. Here we explore the dynamics of large hydrologic systems experiencing change and stress across continental North America using integrated model simulations, observations and data products. Simulations of aquifer depletion due to pervasive groundwater pumping diagnose both stream depletion and changes in ET. Simulations of systematic increases in temperature are used to understand the relationship between snowpack dynamics, surface and groundwater flow, ET and a changing climate. Remotely sensed products including the GRACE estimates of total storage change are downscaled using model simulations to better understand human impacts to the hydrologic cycle. These example applications motivate a path forward to better use simulations to understand water availability.

  1. Sustainable food security in India-Domestic production and macronutrient availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Hannah; Reay, David; Higgins, Peter

    2018-01-01

    India has been perceived as a development enigma: Recent rates of economic growth have not been matched by similar rates in health and nutritional improvements. To meet the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) of achieving zero hunger by 2030, India faces a substantial challenge in meeting basic nutritional needs in addition to addressing population, environmental and dietary pressures. Here we have mapped-for the first time-the Indian food system from crop production to household-level availability across three key macronutrients categories of 'calories', 'digestible protein' and 'fat'. To better understand the potential of reduced food chain losses and improved crop yields to close future food deficits, scenario analysis was conducted to 2030 and 2050. Under India's current self-sufficiency model, our analysis indicates severe shortfalls in availability of all macronutrients across a large proportion (>60%) of the Indian population. The extent of projected shortfalls continues to grow such that, even in ambitious waste reduction and yield scenarios, enhanced domestic production alone will be inadequate in closing the nutrition supply gap. We suggest that to meet SDG2 India will need to take a combined approach of optimising domestic production and increasing its participation in global trade.

  2. Analysis of two commercially available bortezomib products: differences in assay of active agent and impurity profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrn, Stephen R; Tishmack, Patrick A; Milton, Mark J; van de Velde, Helgi

    2011-06-01

    The analytical properties of two commercially available bortezomib products (VELCADE(®) and Bortenat) were compared using nuclear magnetic resonance, mass spectrometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, and gas chromatography. The data showed differences between the two products. Based on these data, Bortenat samples contained more active ingredients than indicated by the label (mean, 116.5% and 117.9% of label, in 2-mg and 3.5-mg vials, respectively). In comparison, VELCADE samples contained a mean of 99.3% of active ingredient, which was consistent with the approved specification range (US, 90-110%; EU, 95-105%). Clinical data demonstrate that patients exposed to higher than recommended doses of bortezomib on the standard twice-weekly dosing schedule are likely to have an increased risk of major toxicities. Bortenat 2-mg vials contained an isovaleraldehyde impurity; the origin of this is unknown. Additionally, the ratio of boronic acid to boronic ester differed between Bortenat 2 mg (0.27:1) and 3.5 mg (0.13:1) and VELCADE (0.10:1) samples reconstituted in saline indicating that the Bortenat product is not equivalent to the VELCADE product.

  3. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  4. Consumer available permanent hair dye products cause major allergic immune activation in an animal model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonefeld, C M; Larsen, J M; Dabelsteen, S

    2010-01-01

    Background p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and related substances are ingredients of more than two-thirds of oxidative (permanent) hair dyes currently used. Although PPD is a potent skin sensitizer in predictive assays, the extent to which permanent hair dyes sensitize humans has been questioned due...... to the in-use conditions, e.g. the presence of couplers in the hair dye gel and rapid oxidation using a developer. Objectives To study the skin sensitizing potential of permanent hair dyes in mice. Methods Two different permanent hair dye products containing PPD were studied in CBA mice using a modified......-cell proliferation within the draining lymph nodes. Treatment with the mixture induced at least 20% more skin inflammation, cytokine production and CD4+ T-cell activation compared with the colour gel alone. Conclusions Consumer available PPD-containing permanent hair dyes can be potent and rapid immune activators...

  5. Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carrão

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

  6. Diverse urban plantings managed with sufficient resource availability can increase plant productivity and arthropod diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathon eMuller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Buildings structures and surfaces are explicitly being used to grow plants, and these ‘urban plantings’ are typically designed for aesthetic value. Urban plantings also have the potential to contribute significant ‘ecological values’ by increasing urban habitat for animals such as arthropods and by increasing plant productivity. In this study, we evaluated how the provision of these additional ecological values is affected by plant species richness; the availability of essential resources for plants, such as water, light, space; and soil characteristics. We sampled 33 plantings located on the exterior of three buildings in the urban centre of Brisbane, Australia (subtropical climatic region over two, six week sampling periods characterised by different temperature and rainfall conditions. Plant cover was estimated as a surrogate for productivity as destructive sampling of biomass was not possible. We measured weekly light levels (photosynthetically active radiation, plant CO2 assimilation, soil CO2 efflux, and arthropod diversity.Differences in plant cover were best explained by a three-way interaction of plant species richness, management water regime and sampling period. As the richness of plant species increased in a planter, productivity and total arthropod richness also increased significantly - likely due to greater habitat heterogeneity and quality. Overall we found urban plantings can provide additional ecological values if essential resources are maintained within a planter such as water, light and soil temperature. Diverse urban plantings that are managed with these principles in mind can contribute to the attraction of diverse arthropod communities, and lead to increased plant productivity within a dense urban context.

  7. Validation Test Report for the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System as a Fractures/Leads and Polynyas Product

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-26

    and Lipscomb, 2004) to describe the ice dynamics and compute strain rates. It incorporates the standard ridging scheme of Thorndike et al. (1975...Forecast System (ACNFS). NRL/MR/7320—10- 9287, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, 55 pp. Thorndike , A.S., D.A. Rothrock, G.A. Maykut, and

  8. FOCUS FORECASTING IN SUPPLY CHAIN: THE CASE STUDY OF FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS COMPANY IN SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Rakićević

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an application of focus forecasting in a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG supply chain. Focus forecasting is tested in a real business case in a Serbian enterprise. The data used in the simulation refers to the historical sales of two types of FMCG with several different products. The data were collected and summarized across the whole distribution channel in the Serbian market from January 2012 to December 2013. We applied several well-known time series forecasting models using the focus forecasting approach, where for the future time period we used the method which had the best performances in the past. The focus forecasting approach mixes different standard forecasting methods on the data sets in order to find the one that was the most accurate during the past period. The accuracy of forecasting methods is defined through different measures of errors. In this paper we implemented the following forecasting models in Microsoft Excel: last period, all average, moving average, exponential smoothing with constant and variable parameter α, exponential smoothing with trend, exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality. The main purpose was not to evaluate different forecasting methods but to show a practical application of the focus forecasting approach in a real business case.

  9. AVAILABILITY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BETEL PRODUCTS IN THE U.S.†

    OpenAIRE

    Blank, Melissa; Deshpande, Laxmikant; Balster, Robert L.

    2008-01-01

    Betel use involves oral placement of shards of areca nut (Areca catechu palm seed containing the cholinergic agonist arecoline) wrapped with slaked lime in a betel leaf (Piper betle plant) or various chopped or powdered products containing areca nut and/or parts of the betel plant. Additives to this mixture include catechu (areca palm extract), spices/sweeteners (e.g., saccharin, cloves), and/or tobacco. Betel use is most common in Asia and East India; however, little is known about the avail...

  10. A study on the mineral elements available in aquaponics, their impact on lettuce productivity and the potential improvement of their availability.

    OpenAIRE

    Delaide, Boris

    2017-01-01

    Aquaponics is an integrated farming concept that combines fish and hydroponic plant production in a recirculating water system. This innovative technique has the potential to reduce the impact of fish and plant production on the environment by namely closing the nutrient loop. Indeed, the nutrients leaving the fish part are used to grow hydroponic plants. This thesis focused on the mineral elements available in aquaponics to grow plants. The thesis started by deepening the aquaponic conce...

  11. Energy availability from livestock and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1815–1913: a new comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kander, Astrid; Warde, Paul

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the proposition that a reason for high agricultural productivity in the early nineteenth century was relatively high energy availability from draught animals. The article is based on the collection of extensive new data indicating different trends in draught power availability and the efficiency of its use in different countries of Europe. This article shows that the proposition does not hold, and demonstrates that, although towards the end of the nineteenth century England had relatively high numbers of draught animals per agricultural worker, it also had low number of workers and animals per hectare, indicating the high efficiency of muscle power, rather than an abundance of such power. The higher efficiency was related to a specialization on less labour-intensive farming and a preference for horses over oxen.

  12. Effect of substrate availability on nitrous oxide production by deammonification processes under anoxic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Yvonne; Beier, Maike; Rosenwinkel, Karl-Heinz

    2012-05-01

    Due to its high global warming potential, nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from wastewater treatment processes have recently received a high degree of attention. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of information regarding the microbiological processes leading to N(2)O production. In this study, two lab-scale sequencing batch reactors were operated with deammonification biomass to investigate the role of denitrification and the influence of substrate availability regarding N(2)O formation during the anoxic phase of deammonification. Three different operational phases were established: within the first phase conversion by anammox was favoured and after a transition phase, denitrification activity was promoted. Low nitrous oxide production was observed during stable operation aiming for anammox conversion. Pulsed inflow of the wastewater containing ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and nitrite (NO(2)(-)) led to increased N(2)O production rates. Within the period of denitrification as dominating nitrogen conversion process, the nitrous oxide concentration level was higher during continuous inflow conditions, but the reaction to pulsed inflow was less pronounced. The results indicated that denitrification was responsible for N(2)O formation from the deammonification biomass. Operational settings to achieve suppression of denitrification processes to a large extend were deducted from the results of the experiments. © 2012 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology © 2012 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

  14. Potential Impacts of Food Production on Freshwater Availability Considering Water Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinjiro Yano

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the potential impacts of global food production on freshwater availability (water scarcity footprint; WSF by applying the water unavailability factor (fwua as a characterization factor and a global water resource model based on life cycle impact assessment (LCIA. Each water source, including rainfall, surface water, and groundwater, has a distinct fwua that is estimated based on the renewability rate of each geographical water cycle. The aggregated consumptive water use level for food production (water footprint inventory; WI was found to be 4344 km3/year, and the calculated global total WSF was 18,031 km3 H2Oeq/year, when considering the difference in water sources. According to the fwua concept, which is based on the land area required to obtain a unit volume of water from each source, the calculated annual impact can also be represented as 98.5 × 106 km2. This value implies that current agricultural activities requires a land area that is over six times larger than global total cropland. We also present the net import of the WI and WSF, highlighting the importance of quantitative assessments for utilizing global water resources to achieve sustainable water use globally.

  15. Chemical and toxicological characterization of commercial smokeless tobacco products available on the Canadian market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickert, W S; Joza, P J; Trivedi, A H; Momin, R A; Wagstaff, W G; Lauterbach, J H

    2009-03-01

    Some health experts are recommending that smokers who refuse to quit or refuse to use nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) such as nicotine-containing chewing gum switch to certain types of smokeless tobacco products (STP) such as Swedish snus. Other health experts disagree citing the uncertainty in the composition of commercially available STP, the lack of governmental regulations to ensure that STP advertised to meet certain standards (i.e., GothiaTek) do actually meet such standards, and the uncertainty that any STP can provide as safe as alternative to smoking as NRT. One reason for uncertainty is the dearth of detailed chemical and toxicological information on contemporary STP. Unlike the situation with cigarettes, there are few standardized methods for analytical and toxicological studies of STP. Consequently, the objective for this work was to characterize several types of STP available on the Canadian market using the modifications of the Official Health Canada chemical and toxicological methods developed for cigarettes. Moist snuff samples tested had TSNA and B[a]P levels somewhat above the GothiaTek standard while samples of Swedish snus, low-moisture snuff, and US-style chewing tobacco did not. Use of in vitro assays to assess STP toxicity was of limited utility in distinguishing product types.

  16. Benchmarking of commercially available CHO cell culture media for antibody production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhart, David; Damjanovic, Lukas; Kaisermayer, Christian; Kunert, Renate

    2015-06-01

    In this study, eight commercially available, chemically defined Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell culture media from different vendors were evaluated in batch culture using an IgG-producing CHO DG44 cell line as a model. Medium adaptation revealed that the occurrence of even small aggregates might be a good indicator of cell growth performance in subsequent high cell density cultures. Batch experiments confirmed that the culture medium has a significant impact on bioprocess performance, but high amino acid concentrations alone were not sufficient to ensure superior cell growth and high antibody production. However, some key amino acids that were limiting in most media could be identified. Unbalanced glucose and amino acids led to high cell-specific lactate and ammonium production rates. In some media, persistently high glucose concentrations probably induced the suppression of respiration and oxidative phosphorylation, known as Crabtree effect, which resulted in high cell-specific glycolysis rates along with a continuous and high lactate production. In additional experiments, two of the eight basal media were supplemented with feeds from two different manufacturers in six combinations, in order to understand the combined impact of media and feeds on cell metabolism in a CHO fed-batch process. Cell growth, nutrient consumption and metabolite production rates, antibody production, and IgG quality were evaluated in detail. Concentrated feed supplements boosted cell concentrations almost threefold and antibody titers up to sevenfold. Depending on the fed-batch strategy, fourfold higher peak cell concentrations and eightfold increased IgG titers (up to 5.8 g/L) were achieved. The glycolytic flux was remarkably similar among the fed-batches; however, substantially different specific lactate production rates were observed in the different media and feed combinations. Further analysis revealed that in addition to the feed additives, the basal medium can make a considerable

  17. Seasonal forecasting of discharge for the Raccoon River, Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Louise; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, Allen; Vecchi, Gabriel

    2016-04-01

    The state of Iowa (central United States) is regularly afflicted by severe natural hazards such as the 2008/2013 floods and the 2012 drought. To improve preparedness for these catastrophic events and allow Iowans to make more informed decisions about the most suitable water management strategies, we have developed a framework for medium to long range probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting for the Raccoon River at Van Meter, a 8900-km2 catchment located in central-western Iowa. Our flow forecasts use statistical models to predict seasonal discharge for low to high flows, with lead forecasting times ranging from one to ten months. Historical measurements of daily discharge are obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the Van Meter stream gage, and used to compute quantile time series from minimum to maximum seasonal flow. The model is forced with basin-averaged total seasonal precipitation records from the PRISM Climate Group and annual row crop production acreage from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Services database. For the forecasts, we use corn and soybean production from the previous year (persistence forecast) as a proxy for the impacts of agricultural practices on streamflow. The monthly precipitation forecasts are provided by eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), with lead times ranging from 0.5 to 11.5 months, and a resolution of 1 decimal degree. Additionally, precipitation from the month preceding each season is used to characterize antecedent soil moisture conditions. The accuracy of our modelled (1927-2015) and forecasted (2001-2015) discharge values is assessed by comparison with the observed USGS data. We explore the sensitivity of forecast skill over the full range of lead times, flow quantiles, forecast seasons, and with each GCM. Forecast skill is also examined using different formulations of the statistical models, as well as NMME forecast

  18. 77 FR 12311 - Guidance for Industry on Size of Beads in Drug Products Labeled for Sprinkle; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-29

    ...] Guidance for Industry on Size of Beads in Drug Products Labeled for Sprinkle; Availability AGENCY: Food and... the availability of a guidance for industry entitled ``Size of Beads in Drug Products Labeled for... Evaluation and Research's (CDER's) current thinking on appropriate size ranges for beads in drug products...

  19. 76 FR 3144 - Draft Guidance for Industry on Size of Beads in Drug Products Labeled for Sprinkle; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-19

    ...] Draft Guidance for Industry on Size of Beads in Drug Products Labeled for Sprinkle; Availability AGENCY... announcing the availability of a draft guidance for industry entitled ``Size of Beads in Drug Products... Evaluation and Research's (CDER's) current thinking on appropriate size ranges for beads in drug products...

  20. Chemical Emissions of Residential Materials and Products: Review of Available Information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willem, Henry; Singer, Brett

    2010-09-15

    This report is prepared in the context of a larger program whose mission is to advance understanding of ventilation and indoor air quality in U.S. homes. A specific objective of this program is to develop the scientific basis ? through controlled experiments, monitoring and analysis ? for health risk-based ventilation standards. Appropriate and adequate ventilation is a basic element of a healthy home. Ventilation provides outdoor air and in the process removes indoor odors and contaminants including potentially unhealthful chemicals emitted by indoor materials, products and activities. Ventilation traditionally was assured to occur via infiltration of outdoor air through cracks and other leakage pathways in the residential building envelope. As building air tightness is improved for energy efficiency, infiltration can be reduced to inadequate levels. This has lead to the development of standards requiring mechanical ventilation. Though nominally intended to ensure acceptable indoor air quality, the standards are not explicitly tied to health risk or pollutant exposure targets. LBNL is currently designing analyses to assess the impact of varying ventilation standards on pollutant concentrations, health risks and energy use. These analyses require information on sources of chemical pollutant emissions, ideally including emission rates and the impact of ventilation on emissions. Some information can be obtained from recent studies that report measurements of various air contaminants and their concentrations in U.S. residences. Another way to obtain this information is the bottom-up approach of collecting and evaluating emissions data from construction and interior materials and common household products. This review contributes to the latter approach by summarizing available information on chemical emissions from new residential products and materials. We review information from the scientific literature and public sources to identify and discuss the databases that

  1. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

  2. Prevalence of C. botulinum and C. perfringens spores in food products available on Polish market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grenda Tomasz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of Clostridium botulinum and Clostridium perfringens in food samples purchased from Polish producers. Material and Methods: The analyses were performed on 260 food samples collected in Lublin and Subcarpathian regions: 56 of smoked meat, 21 of pork meat, 20 of dairy products, 26 of vegetable and fruit preserves, 40 of ready-to-eat meals, 27 of fish preserves, and 70 of honey collected directly from apiaries. Results: C. botulinum strains were isolated from 2.3% (6/260 of samples and the isolates were classified as toxin types A (4/260 and B (2/260. C. perfringens strains were isolated from 14% (37/260 of samples. All the isolates were classified as toxin type A, 28 of them were able also to produce α toxin and 9 - β2 toxin. Conclusion: On the basis of the obtained results it could be suggested that risk assessment, especially regarding the entire honey harvesting process, should be provided in order to ensure the microbiological safety of the products to be consumed by infants and people with a weakened immune system.

  3. The availability of reliable information about medicines in Serbia for health professionals summary of product characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Ljiljana C.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Today, there are many drugs for the treatment of a large number of indicator areas. Significant financial resources are invested in research with the aim of introducing reliable therapeutics to therapy. Therefore, it is necessary to provide health care professionals exact information about new therapies. The overall process of scientific data, ideas and information exchange is possible through numerous communications of modern IT tools. Methodology According to the Law, key information on registered drug is included in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC for health professionals, which is harmonized with EU directives and regulations (SmPC.Protocol content and structure of the information provided in SPC is determined in the guidelines of the EU, therefore, a unique set of data is established for all the drugs registered in Serbia. Topic This paper presents the key segments of SPC, with special reference to the description of the regulations that are required for data related to indications, mechanism of action, dosage, contraindications, side effects, interactions and other important information regarding the profile of the drug, which are standardized and harmonized with the structure of identical documents which operate at the EU level, or EMEA. Conclusions SPC is the regulatory determined technical document on medicinal products in the RS in which there are listed scientifically proven, clinical and pharmacological data and information on the profile of the drug, which are essential for health professionals - doctors and pharmacists in the implementation of pharmacotherapy in our society. This document is the starting point for the development of applied Pharmacoinformatics and it includes a range of activities important for the development of appropriate manuals and makes available data and information for monitoring indicators of the national policy on drugs and modern effective drugs treatment.

  4. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  5. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  6. Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Available for Production of a Pediatric Bioabsorbable Stent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan D. Alexy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Transcatheter treatment of children with congenital heart disease such as coarctation of the aorta and pulmonary artery stenosis currently involves the use of metal stents. While these provide good short term results, there are long term complications with their use. Children outgrow metal stents, obligating them to future transcatheter dilations and eventual surgical removal. A bioabsorbable stent, or a stent that goes away with time, would solve this problem. Bioabsorbable stents are being developed for use in coronary arteries, however these are too small for use in pediatric congenital heart disease. A bioabsorbable stent for use in pediatric congenital heart disease needs to be low profile, expandable to a diameter 8 mm, provide sufficient radial strength, and absorb quickly enough to allow vessel growth. Development of absorbable coronary stents has led to a great understanding of the available production techniques and materials such as bioabsorbable polymers and biocorrodable metals. Children with congenital heart disease will hopefully soon benefit from the current generation of bioabsorbable and biocorrodable materials and devices.

  7. Phospholipase Dε enhances Braasca napus growth and seed production in response to nitrogen availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shaoping; Yao, Shuaibing; Wang, Geliang; Guo, Liang; Zhou, Yongming; Hong, Yueyun; Wang, Xuemin

    2016-03-01

    Phospholipase D (PLD), which hydrolyses phospholipids to produce phosphatidic acid, has been implicated in plant response to macronutrient availability in Arabidopsis. This study investigated the effect of increased PLDε expression on nitrogen utilization in Brassica napus to explore the application of PLDε manipulation to crop improvement. In addition, changes in membrane lipid species in response to nitrogen availability were determined in the oil seed crop. Multiple PLDε over expression (PLDε-OE) lines displayed enhanced biomass accumulation under nitrogen-deficient and nitrogen-replete conditions. PLDε-OE plants in the field produced more seeds than wild-type plants but have no impact on seed oil content. Compared with wild-type plants, PLDε-OE plants were enhanced in nitrate transporter expression, uptake and reduction, whereas the activity of nitrite reductase was higher under nitrogen-depleted, but not at nitrogen-replete conditions. The level of nitrogen altered membrane glycerolipid metabolism, with greater impacts on young than mature leaves. The data indicate increased expression of PLDε has the potential to improve crop plant growth and production under nitrogen-depleted and nitrogen-replete conditions. © 2015 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  9. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  10. Offsite commercial disposal of oil and gas exploration and production waste :availability, options, and cost.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puder, M. G.; Veil, J. A.

    2006-09-05

    A survey conducted in 1995 by the American Petroleum Institute (API) found that the U.S. exploration and production (E&P) segment of the oil and gas industry generated more than 149 million bbl of drilling wastes, almost 18 billion bbl of produced water, and 21 million bbl of associated wastes. The results of that survey, published in 2000, suggested that 3% of drilling wastes, less than 0.5% of produced water, and 15% of associated wastes are sent to offsite commercial facilities for disposal. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) collected information on commercial E&P waste disposal companies in different states in 1997. While the information is nearly a decade old, the report has proved useful. In 2005, Argonne began collecting current information to update and expand the data. This report describes the new 2005-2006 database and focuses on the availability of offsite commercial disposal companies, the prevailing disposal methods, and estimated disposal costs. The data were collected in two phases. In the first phase, state oil and gas regulatory officials in 31 states were contacted to determine whether their agency maintained a list of permitted commercial disposal companies dedicated to oil. In the second stage, individual commercial disposal companies were interviewed to determine disposal methods and costs. The availability of offsite commercial disposal companies and facilities falls into three categories. The states with high oil and gas production typically have a dedicated network of offsite commercial disposal companies and facilities in place. In other states, such an infrastructure does not exist and very often, commercial disposal companies focus on produced water services. About half of the states do not have any industry-specific offsite commercial disposal infrastructure. In those states, operators take their wastes to local municipal landfills if permitted or haul the wastes to other states. This report provides state-by-state summaries of the

  11. Gas deliverability forecasting - why bother?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trick, M.

    1996-01-01

    According to the author the answer to the question is an unequivocal 'yes' because gas production forecasting is extremely useful for the management and development of a gas field. To model a gas field, one must take into account reservoir performance, sandface inflow performance, wellbore pressure losses, gathering system pressure losses, and field facility performance. The integration of all these factors in a single computer-based model that incorporates proven technology will facilitate the evaluation of various development strategies. A good computer model can help to predict the most cost effective improvement methods, determine economic viability, estimate how much gas is available, evaluate whether drilling wells or adding compression will produce the most reserves, determine optimum placement of compression, evaluate changes to the gathering system, and determine if production from existing wells can be increased by wellbore modifications

  12. Application of grafted polynomial function in forecasting cotton ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was conducted to forecast cotton production trend with the application of a grafted polynomial function in Nigeria from 1985 through 2013. Grafted models are used in econometrics to embark on economic analysis involving time series. In economic time series, the paucity of data and their availability has always ...

  13. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    algorithms, techniques and observing systems;. • Evaluation of ... available forecast techniques, perhaps including stratification into ... an important factor in the overall decision pro- cess relative to ...... infrared and water vapour based imageries and products. ... Meteorology, IMD for his support and encourage- ment to carry ...

  14. Replacement Beef Cow Valuation under Data Availability Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy D. Hagerman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Economists are often tasked with estimating the benefits or costs associated with livestock production losses; however, lack of available data or absence of consistent reporting can reduce the accuracy of these valuations. This work looks at three potential estimation techniques for determining the value for replacement beef cows with varying types of market data to proxy constrained data availability and discusses the potential margin of error for each technique. Oklahoma bred replacement cows are valued using hedonic pricing based on Oklahoma bred cow data—a best case scenario—vector error correction modeling (VECM based on national cow sales data and cost of production (COP based on just a representative enterprise budget and very limited sales data. Each method was then used to perform a within-sample forecast of 2016 January to December, and forecasts are compared with the 2016 monthly observed market prices in Oklahoma using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE. Hedonic pricing methods tend to overvalue for within-sample forecasting but performed best, as measured by MAPE for high quality cows. The VECM tended to undervalue cows but performed best for younger animals. COP performed well, compared with the more data intensive methods. Examining each method individually across eight representative replacement beef female types, the VECM forecast resulted in a MAPE under 10% for 33% of forecasted months, followed by hedonic pricing at 24% of the forecasted months and COP at 14% of the forecasted months for average quality beef females. For high quality females, the hedonic pricing method worked best producing a MAPE under 10% in 36% of the forecasted months followed by the COP method at 21% of months and the VECM at 14% of the forecasted months. These results suggested that livestock valuation method selection was not one-size-fits-all and may need to vary based not only on the data available but also on the characteristics (e

  15. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  16. 77 FR 20026 - Draft Guidance for Industry: Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications; Availability; Agency...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-03

    ... (21 U.S.C. 387k) to the FD&C Act to prohibit the introduction or delivery for introduction into... 911(b)(1) of the FD&C Act). No person may introduce or deliver for introduction into interstate... advertising and labeling; The conditions for using the product; The formulation of the product; Sample product...

  17. Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Available for Production of a Pediatric Bioabsorbable Stent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexy, Ryan D.; Levi, Daniel S.

    2013-01-01

    Transcatheter treatment of children with congenital heart disease such as coarctation of the aorta and pulmonary artery stenosis currently involves the use of metal stents. While these provide good short term results, there are long term complications with their use. Children outgrow metal stents, obligating them to future transcatheter dilations and eventual surgical removal. A bioabsorbable stent, or a stent that goes away with time, would solve this problem. Bioabsorbable stents are being developed for use in coronary arteries, however these are too small for use in pediatric congenital heart disease. A bioabsorbable stent for use in pediatric congenital heart disease needs to be low profile, expandable to a diameter 8 mm, provide sufficient radial strength, and absorb quickly enough to allow vessel growth. Development of absorbable coronary stents has led to a great understanding of the available production techniques and materials such as bioabsorbable polymers and biocorrodable metals. Children with congenital heart disease will hopefully soon benefit from the current generation of bioabsorbable and biocorrodable materials and devices. PMID:24089660

  18. Mixomics analysis of Bacillus subtilis: effect of oxygen availability on riboflavin production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junlang; Lei, Pan; Mohsin, Ali; Liu, Xiaoyun; Huang, Mingzhi; Li, Liang; Hu, Jianhua; Hang, Haifeng; Zhuang, Yingping; Guo, Meijin

    2017-09-12

    Riboflavin, an intermediate of primary metabolism, is one kind of important food additive with high economic value. The microbial cell factory Bacillus subtilis has already been proven to possess significant importance for the food industry and have become one of the most widely used riboflavin-producing strains. In the practical fermentation processes, a sharp decrease in riboflavin production is encountered along with a decrease in the dissolved oxygen (DO) tension. Influence of this oxygen availability on riboflavin biosynthesis through carbon central metabolic pathways in B. subtilis is unknown so far. Therefore the unveiled effective metabolic pathways were still an unaccomplished task till present research work. In this paper, the microscopic regulation mechanisms of B. subtilis grown under different dissolved oxygen tensions were studied by integrating 13 C metabolic flux analysis, metabolomics and transcriptomics. It was revealed that the glucose metabolic flux through pentose phosphate (PP) pathway was lower as being confirmed by smaller pool sizes of metabolites in PP pathway and lower expression amount of ykgB at transcriptional level. The latter encodes 6-phosphogluconolactonase (6-PGL) under low DO tension. In response to low DO tension in broth, the glucose metabolic flux through Embden-Meyerhof-Parnas (EMP) pathway was higher and the gene, alsS, encoding for acetolactate synthase was significantly activated that may result due to lower ATP concentration and higher NADH/NAD + ratio. Moreover, ResE, a membrane-anchored protein that is capable of oxygen regulated phosphorylase activity, and ResD, a regulatory protein that can be phosphorylated and dephosphorylated by ResE, were considered as DO tension sensor and transcriptional regulator respectively. This study shows that integration of transcriptomics, 13 C metabolic flux analysis and metabolomics analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of biosynthesized riboflavin's regulatory mechanisms in

  19. The availability and economic analyses of using marginal land for bioenergy production in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuqi, Chen; Xudong, Guo; Chunyan, Lv

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, China has witnessed rapid increase in the dependence of foreign oil import. In 2015, the primary energy consumption of China is 543 million tons, of which 328 million tons was imported. The total amount of imported foreign oil increased from 49.8% in 2008 to 60.41% in 2016. To address the national energy security and GHG emission reduction, China has made considerable progress in expanding renewable energy portfolio, especially liquid biofuels. However, under the pressure of high population and vulnerable food security, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ruled that bioenergy is only allowed to be produced using non-cereal feedstock. In addition, the energy crops can only be planted on marginal land, which is the land not suitable for growing field crops due to edaphic and/or climatic limitations, and other environmental risks. Although there have been a number of studies about estimating the marginal land for energy plants' cultivation in China, as to the different definition of marginal land and land use data, the results are quite different. Furthermore, even if there is enough marginal land suitable for energy plants' cultivation, economic viability of cultivating energy plants on marginal land is critical. In order to analyze the availability and economic analyses of the marginal land for bioenergy production strategy, firstly, by using of the latest and most authoritative land use data, this study focused on the assessment of marginal land resources and bioenergy potential by planting five species of energy plants including Cassava, Jatropha curcas, Helianthus tuberous L, Pistacia chinensis, Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge. The results indicate that there are 289.71 million ha marginal land can be used for these five energy plants' cultivation, which can produce 24.45 million tons bioethanol and 8.77 million tons of biodiesel. Secondly, based on field survey data and literature reviews, we found that, from the farmers

  20. Improving Agricultural Productivity in Tonga through Ensuring Data Availability and Enhancing Agro-meteorological Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    The project was first conceived in the Global Framework for Climate Services Regional Consultation in the Cook Islands in March 2014. In this meeting, key officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Forests, and Fisheries and the Tonga Meteorological Services had a meeting with the APEC Climate Center scientists with the idea to collaborate on a joint project. The project evolved to include the following components: assessment of users' needs and capacities, development of an agricultural database, research on the core relationships between agriculture and climate through modeling and field trials, and the development and delivery of agro-meteorological services. Envisioned outputs include a 2-7 day warning for pests and diseases, a suite of tools supporting decisions on planting dates and crop varieties, and other advisory services derived from seasonal climate forecasts. As one of the climate adaptation projects under its Pacific Island portfolio, the project will deliver urgent information services for Tongan agricultural growers and exporters. The project comes into greater importance and urgency, as the 2014 drought event resulted in the destruction of 80% of squash in Tonga, a main export crop from which the country derives foreign exchange earnings. Since 2014, some of the project achievements include the first agro-met data collection in Tonga, the development of an agricultural DB management system that houses archived agriculture data, and key meetings with stakeholders to ensure alignment of the project objectives and design with the interests of the Tongan government and other stakeholders. In addition, rigorous scientific research through modeling and field trials has been conducted to address the twin goals of supporting Tonga's economy as well as food security. Based on the findings from the research, tools will be developed to translate the science into knowledge that supports decisions on the farm scale.

  1. Replacement Beef Cow Valuation under Data Availability Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerman, Amy D.; Thompson, Jada M.; Ham, Charlotte; Johnson, Kamina K.

    2017-01-01

    Economists are often tasked with estimating the benefits or costs associated with livestock production losses; however, lack of available data or absence of consistent reporting can reduce the accuracy of these valuations. This work looks at three potential estimation techniques for determining the value for replacement beef cows with varying types of market data to proxy constrained data availability and discusses the potential margin of error for each technique. Oklahoma bred replacement cows are valued using hedonic pricing based on Oklahoma bred cow data—a best case scenario—vector error correction modeling (VECM) based on national cow sales data and cost of production (COP) based on just a representative enterprise budget and very limited sales data. Each method was then used to perform a within-sample forecast of 2016 January to December, and forecasts are compared with the 2016 monthly observed market prices in Oklahoma using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Hedonic pricing methods tend to overvalue for within-sample forecasting but performed best, as measured by MAPE for high quality cows. The VECM tended to undervalue cows but performed best for younger animals. COP performed well, compared with the more data intensive methods. Examining each method individually across eight representative replacement beef female types, the VECM forecast resulted in a MAPE under 10% for 33% of forecasted months, followed by hedonic pricing at 24% of the forecasted months and COP at 14% of the forecasted months for average quality beef females. For high quality females, the hedonic pricing method worked best producing a MAPE under 10% in 36% of the forecasted months followed by the COP method at 21% of months and the VECM at 14% of the forecasted months. These results suggested that livestock valuation method selection was not one-size-fits-all and may need to vary based not only on the data available but also on the characteristics (e.g., quality or age) of the

  2. Detection and Quantification of Valerenic Acid in Commercially Available Valerian Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Ruth H.; Muldowney, Ciaran A.; Mohamed, Rabab; Keohane, Fiona; Shanahan, Catherine; Walsh, John J.; Kavanagh, Pierce V.

    2007-01-01

    Several valerian-containing products sold in pharmacies were evaluated to verify the presence of Valeriana officinalis by identifying the presence of valerenic acid found only in species of Valeriana. The content of valerenic acid was found to vary considerably in the products analyzed, thus emphasizing the importance of standardizing herbal…

  3. Nitrogen availability regulates proline and ethylene production and alleviates salinity stress in mustard (Brassica juncea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Noushina; Umar, Shahid; Khan, Nafees A

    2015-04-15

    Proline content and ethylene production have been shown to be involved in salt tolerance mechanisms in plants. To assess the role of nitrogen (N) in the protection of photosynthesis under salt stress, the effect of N (0, 5, 10, 20 mM) on proline and ethylene was studied in mustard (Brassica juncea). Sufficient N (10 mM) optimized proline production under non-saline conditions through an increase in proline-metabolizing enzymes, leading to osmotic balance and protection of photosynthesis through optimal ethylene production. Excess N (20 mM), in the absence of salt stress, inhibited photosynthesis and caused higher ethylene evolution but lower proline production compared to sufficient N. In contrast, under salt stress with an increased demand for N, excess N optimized ethylene production, which regulates the proline content resulting in recovered photosynthesis. The effect of excess N on photosynthesis under salt stress was further substantiated by the application of the ethylene biosynthesis inhibitor, 1-aminoethoxy vinylglycine (AVG), which inhibited proline production and photosynthesis. Without salt stress, AVG promoted photosynthesis in plants receiving excess N by inhibiting stress ethylene production. The results suggest that a regulatory interaction exists between ethylene, proline and N for salt tolerance. Nitrogen differentially regulates proline production and ethylene formation to alleviate the adverse effect of salinity on photosynthesis in mustard. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  4. Load forecasting method considering temperature effect for distribution network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, the temperature factor was introduced into the load forecasting in this paper. This paper analyzed the characteristics of power load variation, and researched the rule of the load with the temperature change. Based on the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model of load forecasting was presented with considering the temperature effect, and the steps of load forecasting were given. Used MATLAB, the temperature regression coefficient was calculated. Using the load forecasting model, the full-day load forecasting and time-sharing load forecasting were carried out. By comparing and analyzing the forecast error, the results showed that the error of time-sharing load forecasting method was small in this paper. The forecasting method is an effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

  5. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  6. Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. Phase I report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, R.M.; Hadder, G.R.; Singh, S.P.N.; Whittle, C.

    1985-07-01

    The Department of the Navy (DON) requires an improved capability to forecast mobility fuel availability and quality. The changing patterns in fuel availability and quality are important in planning the Navy's Mobility Fuels R and D Program. These changes come about primarily because of the decline in the quality of crude oil entering world markets as well as the shifts in refinery capabilities domestically and worldwide. The DON requested ORNL's assistance in assembling and testing a methodology for forecasting mobility fuel trends. ORNL reviewed and analyzed domestic and world oil reserve estimates, production and price trends, and recent refinery trends. Three publicly available models developed by the Department of Energy were selected as the basis of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System. The system was used to analyze the availability and quality of jet fuel (JP-5) that could be produced on the West Coast of the United States under an illustrative business-as-usual and a world oil disruption scenario in 1990. Various strategies were investigated for replacing the lost JP-5 production. This exercise, which was strictly a test case for the forecasting system, suggested that full recovery of lost fuel production could be achieved by relaxing the smoke point specifications or by increasing the refiners' gate price for the jet fuel. A more complete analysis of military mobility fuel trends is currently under way.

  7. The Use of Some Forecasting Methods and SWOT Analysis in the Selected Processes of Foundry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymszal J.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting and analysis SWOT are helping tools in the business activity, because under conditions of dynamic changes in both closer and more distant surroundings, reliable, forward-looking information and trends analysis are playing a decisive role. At present, the ability to use available data in forecasting and other analyzes according with changes in business environment are the key managerial skills required, since both forecasting and SWOT analysis are a integral part of the management process, and the appropriate level of forecasting knowledge is increasingly appreciated. Examples of practical use of some forecasting methods in optimization of the procurement, production and distribution processes in foundries are given. The possibilities of using conventional quantitative forecasting methods based on econometric and adaptive models applying the creep trend and harmonic weights are presented. The econometric models were additionally supplemented with the presentation of error estimation methodology, quality assessment and statistical verification of the forecast. The possibility of using qualitative forecasts based on SWOT analysis was also mentioned.

  8. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  9. Transformation of aminopyrine in the presence of free available chlorine: Kinetics, products, and reaction pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Mei-Quan; Feng, Li; Zhang, Li-Qiu

    2017-03-01

    Aminopyrine (AMP) has been frequently detected in the aquatic environment. In this study, the transformation mechanism of AMP by free available chlorine (FAC) oxidation was investigated. The results showed that FAC reacted with AMP rapidly, and a 74% elimination was achieved for 1.30 μM AMP after 2 min at 14.08 μM FAC dose. AMP chlorination was strongly pH-dependent, and its reaction included second- and third-order kinetic processes. Three active FAC species, including chlorine monoxide (Cl 2 O), molecular chlorine (Cl 2 ), and hypochlorous acid (HOCl), were observed to contribute to AMP degradation. The intrinsic rate constants of each FAC species with neutral (AMP 0 ) and cation (AMP + ) species were obtained by kinetic fitting. Cl 2 O exhibited the highest reactivity with AMP 0 (k AMP0, Cl2O  = (4.33 ± 1.4) × 10 9  M -1 s -1 ). In addition, Cl 2 showed high reactivity (10 6 -10 7  M -1 s -1 ) in the presence of chloride, compared with HOCl (k AMP+, HOCl  = (5.73 ± 0.23) × 10 2  M -1 s -1 , k AMP0, HOCl  = (9.68 ± 0.96) × 10 2  M -1 s -1 ). At pH 6.15 and 14.08 μM FAC dose without chloride addition, the contribution of Cl 2 O reached to the maximum (33.3%), but in the whole pH range, HOCl was the main contributor (>66.6%) for AMP degradation. The significance of Cl 2 was noticeable in water containing chloride. Moreover, 11 transformation products were identified, and the main transformation pathways included pyrazole ring breakage, hydroxylation, dehydrogenation, and halogenation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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