Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

Apache The Definitive Guide

CERN Document Server

Laurie, Ben

2003-01-01

Apache is far and away the most widely used web server platform in the world. This versatile server runs more than half of the world's existing web sites. Apache is both free and rock-solid, running more than 21 million web sites ranging from huge e-commerce operations to corporate intranets and smaller hobby sites. With this new third edition of Apache: The Definitive Guide, web administrators new to Apache will come up to speed quickly, and experienced administrators will find the logically organized, concise reference sections indispensable, and system programmers interested in customizin

Better prognostic marker in ICU - APACHE II, SOFA or SAP II!

Science.gov (United States)

Naqvi, Iftikhar Haider; Mahmood, Khalid; Ziaullaha, Syed; Kashif, Syed Mohammad; Sharif, Asim

2016-01-01

This study was designed to determine the comparative efficacy of different scoring system in assessing the prognosis of critically ill patients. This was a retrospective study conducted in medical intensive care unit (MICU) and high dependency unit (HDU) Medical Unit III, Civil Hospital, from April 2012 to August 2012. All patients over age 16 years old who have fulfilled the criteria for MICU admission were included. Predictive mortality of APACHE II, SAP II and SOFA were calculated. Calibration and discrimination were used for validity of each scoring model. A total of 96 patients with equal gender distribution were enrolled. The average APACHE II score in non-survivors (27.97+8.53) was higher than survivors (15.82+8.79) with statistically significant p value (discrimination power than SAP II and SOFA.

The APACHE Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giacobbe P.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available First, we summarize the four-year long efforts undertaken to build the final setup of the APACHE Project, a photometric transit search for small-size planets orbiting bright, low-mass M dwarfs. Next, we describe the present status of the APACHE survey, officially started in July 2012 at the site of the Astronomical Observatory of the Autonomous Region of the Aosta Valley, in the Western Italian Alps. Finally, we briefly discuss the potentially far-reaching consequences of a multi-technique characterization program of the (potentially planet-bearing APACHE targets.

Evaluation of APACHE II system among intensive care patients at a teaching hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Antonio Chiavone

Full Text Available CONTEXT: The high-complexity features of intensive care unit services and the clinical situation of patients themselves render correct prognosis fundamentally important not only for patients, their families and physicians, but also for hospital administrators, fund-providers and controllers. Prognostic indices have been developed for estimating hospital mortality rates for hospitalized patients, based on demographic, physiological and clinical data. OBJECTIVE: The APACHE II system was applied within an intensive care unit to evaluate its ability to predict patient outcome; to compare illness severity with outcomes for clinical and surgical patients; and to compare the recorded result with the predicted death rate. DESIGN: Diagnostic test. SETTING: Clinical and surgical intensive care unit in a tertiary-care teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: The study involved 521 consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit from July 1998 to June 1999. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: APACHE II score, in-hospital mortality, receiver operating characteristic curve, decision matrices and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The patients' mean age was 50 ± 19 years and the APACHE II score was 16.7 ± 7.3. There were 166 clinical patients (32%, 173 (33% post-elective surgery patients (33%, and 182 post-emergency surgery patients (35%, thus producing statistically similar proportions. The APACHE II scores for clinical patients (18.5 ± 7.8 were similar to those for non-elective surgery patients (18.6 ± 6.5 and both were greater than for elective surgery patients (13.0 ± 6.3 (p < 0.05. The higher this score was, the higher the mortality rate was (p < 0.05. The predicted death rate was 25.6% and the recorded death rate was 35.5%. Through the use of receiver operating curve analysis, good discrimination was found (area under the curve = 0.80. From the 2 x 2 decision matrix, 72.2% of patients were correctly classified (sensitivity = 35.1%; specificity = 92.6%. Linear

Learning Apache Karaf

CERN Document Server

Edstrom, Johan; Kesler, Heath

2013-01-01

The book is a fast-paced guide full of step-by-step instructions covering all aspects of application development using Apache Karaf.Learning Apache Karaf will benefit all Java developers and system administrators who need to develop for and/or operate Karaf's OSGi-based runtime. Basic knowledge of Java is assumed.

Instant Apache Wicket 6

CERN Document Server

Longo, João Sávio Ceregatti

2013-01-01

Get to grips with a new technology, understand what it is and what it can do for you, and then get to work with the most important features and tasks. This Starter style guide takes the reader through the basic workflow of Apache Wicket in a practical and friendly style.Instant Apache Wicket 6 is for people who want to learn the basics of Apache Wicket 6 and who already have some experience with Java and object-oriented programming. Basic knowledge of web concepts like HTTP and Ajax will be an added advantage.

Apache Mahout cookbook

CERN Document Server

Giacomelli, Piero

2013-01-01

Apache Mahout Cookbook uses over 35 recipes packed with illustrations and real-world examples to help beginners as well as advanced programmers get acquainted with the features of Mahout.""Apache Mahout Cookbook"" is great for developers who want to have a fresh and fast introduction to Mahout coding. No previous knowledge of Mahout is required, and even skilled developers or system administrators will benefit from the various recipes presented

Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

2015-01-01

We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

Science.gov (United States)

Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

1995-01-01

To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

Growth and survival of Apache Trout under static and fluctuating temperature regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Recsetar, Matthew S.; Bonar, Scott A.; Feuerbacher, Olin

2014-01-01

Increasing stream temperatures have important implications for arid-region fishes. Little is known about effects of high water temperatures that fluctuate over extended periods on Apache Trout Oncorhynchus gilae apache, a federally threatened species of southwestern USA streams. We compared survival and growth of juvenile Apache Trout held for 30 d in static temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, and 28°C) and fluctuating diel temperatures (±3°C from 16, 19, 22 and 25°C midpoints and ±6°C from 19°C and 22°C midpoints). Lethal temperature for 50% (LT50) of the Apache Trout under static temperatures (mean [SD] = 22.8 [0.6]°C) was similar to that of ±3°C diel temperature fluctuations (23.1 [0.1]°C). Mean LT50 for the midpoint of the ±6°C fluctuations could not be calculated because survival in the two treatments (19 ± 6°C and 22 ± 6°C) was not below 50%; however, it probably was also between 22°C and 25°C because the upper limb of a ±6°C fluctuation on a 25°C midpoint is above critical thermal maximum for Apache Trout (28.5–30.4°C). Growth decreased as temperatures approached the LT50. Apache Trout can survive short-term exposure to water temperatures with daily maxima that remain below 25°C and midpoint diel temperatures below 22°C. However, median summer stream temperatures must remain below 19°C for best growth and even lower if daily fluctuations are high (≥12°C).

The Jicarilla Apaches. A Study in Survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunnerson, Dolores A.

Focusing on the ultimate fate of the Cuartelejo and/or Paloma Apaches known in archaeological terms as the Dismal River people of the Central Plains, this book is divided into 2 parts. The early Apache (1525-1700) and the Jicarilla Apache (1700-1800) tribes are studied in terms of their: persistent cultural survival, social/political adaptability,…

PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...

Modified poisoning severity score for early prognostic evaluation in acute paraquat poisoning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng-lin SONG

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective To study the applied value of modified poisoning severity score (PSS for early prognostic evaluation in acute paraquat poisoning. Methods Thirty-seven patients with acute paraquat poisoning from June 2013 to June 2016 were enrolled. The PSS score, the modified PSS score, the acute physiology and the chronic health status Ⅱ score (APACHE Ⅱ of the patients were calculated. The relationship between modified PSS and APACHE Ⅱ was analyzed. Also the factors that affect outcome were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. The work characteristic curve (ROC curve of the PSS, the modified PSS and the APECH Ⅱ were drawn and compared. Results There was a positive correlation between the risk of death and admission time, poisonous dose, the concentration of urine paraquat, and white blood cell count (P<0.05. There was a significant correlation between the modified PSS and the APACHE Ⅱ(P<0.0001. The immediate PSS score, the modified PSS score, and the APACHE Ⅱ score were significant for the prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. The area under the curve (AUC was in turn 0.774, 0.788, 0.799. Among them, the best bound of the modified PSS score was 6.5 (when the score is greater than 6.5, the risk of death is higher. Further comparison of the area under the three curves showed that there was no significant difference in the area under the ROC curve between the three scores in predicting the prognosis of death [P=0.7633(PSS-DPSS, P=0.7791(PSS-APACHE Ⅱ, P=0.8918(DPSS-APACHE Ⅱ]. Conclusion Modified PSS is helpful in early predicting the prognosis of acute paraquat poisoning. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2018.04.13

The Apache OODT Project: An Introduction

Science.gov (United States)

Mattmann, C. A.; Crichton, D. J.; Hughes, J. S.; Ramirez, P.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A. F.

2012-12-01

Apache OODT is a science data system framework, borne over the past decade, with 100s of FTEs of investment, tens of sponsoring agencies (NASA, NIH/NCI, DoD, NSF, universities, etc.), and hundreds of projects and science missions that it powers everyday to their success. At its core, Apache OODT carries with it two fundamental classes of software services and components: those that deal with information integration from existing science data repositories and archives, that themselves have already-in-use business processes and models for populating those archives. Information integration allows search, retrieval, and dissemination across these heterogeneous systems, and ultimately rapid, interactive data access, and retrieval. The other suite of services and components within Apache OODT handle population and processing of those data repositories and archives. Workflows, resource management, crawling, remote data retrieval, curation and ingestion, along with science data algorithm integration all are part of these Apache OODT software elements. In this talk, I will provide an overview of the use of Apache OODT to unlock and populate information from science data repositories and archives. We'll cover the basics, along with some advanced use cases and success stories.

Magnetic resonance imaging versus Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation II score in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Wei; Zhang Xiaoming; Xiao Bo; Zeng Nanlin; Pan Huashan; Feng Zhisong; Xu Xiaoxue

2011-01-01

Objective: To study the correlation between established magnetic resonance (MR) imaging criteria of disease severity in acute pancreatitis and the Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and to assess the utility of each prognostic indicators in acute pancreatitis. Materials and methods: In this study there were 94 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), all had abdominal MR imaging. MR findings were categorized into edematous and necrotizing AP and graded according to the MR severity index (MRSI). The APACHE II score was calculated within 24 h of admission, and local complications, death, duration of hospitalization and ICU were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed to determine their correlation. Results: In patients with pancreatitis, no significant correlation can be found between the APACHE II score and the MRSI score (P = 0.196). The MRSI score correlated well with morbidity (P = 0.006) but not with mortality (P = 0.137). The APACHE II score correlated well with mortality (P = 0.002) but not with the morbidity (P = 0.112). The MRSI score was superior to the APACHE II score as a predictor of the length of hospitalization (r = 0.52 vs. r = 0.35). A high MRSI and APACHE II score correlated with the need for being in the intensive care unit (ICU) (P = 0.000 and P = 0.000, respectively). Conclusion: In patients with pancreatitis, MRSI is superior to APACHE II in assessing local complications from pancreatitis but has a limited role in determining systemic complications in which the APACHE II score excels.

Random Decision Forests on Apache Spark

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

About the speaker Tom White has been an Apache Hadoop committer since February 2007, and is a member of the Apache Software Foundation. He works for Cloudera, a company set up to offer Hadoop support and training. Previously he was as an independent Hadoop consultant, work...

Apache Tomcat 7 Essentials

CERN Document Server

Khare, Tanuj

2012-01-01

This book is a step-by-step tutorial for anyone wanting to learn Apache Tomcat 7 from scratch. There are plenty of illustrations and examples to escalate you from a novice to an expert with minimal strain. If you are a J2EE administrator, migration administrator, technical architect, or a project manager for a web hosting domain, and are interested in Apache Tomcat 7, then this book is for you. If you are someone responsible for installation, configuration, and management of Tomcat 7, then too, this book will be of help to you.

Apache Flume distributed log collection for Hadoop

CERN Document Server

D'Souza, Subas

2013-01-01

A starter guide that covers Apache Flume in detail.Apache Flume: Distributed Log Collection for Hadoop is intended for people who are responsible for moving datasets into Hadoop in a timely and reliable manner like software engineers, database administrators, and data warehouse administrators

Instant Apache Maven starter

CERN Document Server

Turatti, Maurizio

2013-01-01

Get to grips with a new technology, understand what it is and what it can do for you, and then get to work with the most important features and tasks.The book follows a starter approach for using Maven to create and build a new Java application or Web project from scratch.Instant Apache Maven Starter is great for Java developers new to Apache Maven, but also for experts looking for immediate information. Moreover, only 20% of the necessary information about Maven is used in 80% of the activities. This book aims to focus on the most important information, those pragmatic parts you actually use

Apache Solr essentials

CERN Document Server

Gazzarini, Andrea

2015-01-01

If you are a competent developer with experience of working with technologies similar to Apache Solr and want to develop efficient search applications, then this book is for you. Familiarity with the Java programming language is required.

Apache Mahout essentials

CERN Document Server

Withanawasam, Jayani

2015-01-01

If you are a Java developer or data scientist, haven't worked with Apache Mahout before, and want to get up to speed on implementing machine learning on big data, then this is the perfect guide for you.

MR imaging of acute pancreatitis: Correlation of abdominal wall edema with severity scores

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Ru, E-mail: yangru0904@163.com [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Jing, Zong Lin, E-mail: jzl325@163.com [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Zhang, Xiao Ming, E-mail: zhangxm@nsmc.edu.cn [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Tang, Wei, E-mail: tw-n-g-up@163.com [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Xiao, Bo, E-mail: xiaoboimaging@163.com [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Huang, Xiao Hua, E-mail: nc_hxh1966@yahoo.com.cn [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Yang, Lin, E-mail: llinyangmd@163.com [Sichuan Key laboratory of Medical Imaging, Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China); Feng, Zhi Song, E-mail: fengzhisong@medmail.com.cn [Department of Gastroenterology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong 637000 (China)

2012-11-15

Objective: To study MRI findings of abdominal wall edema (AWE) in acute pancreatitis as well as correlations between AWE and the severity of acute pancreatitis according to the MR severity index (MRSI) and the Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation III (APACHE III) scoring system. Materials and methods: A total of 160 patients with AP admitted to our institution between December 2009 and March 2011 were included in this study. MRI was performed within 48 h after admission. MRI findings of acute pancreatitis were noted, including AWE on the MRI. The abdominal wall area was divided into quarters, and each area involved was recorded as 1 point to score the severity of AWE. The severity of acute pancreatitis was studied using both the MRSI and the APACHE III scoring system. Spearman correlation of AWE with the MRSI and the APACHE III scoring system was analyzed. Results: In 160 patients with acute pancreatitis, 53.8% had AWE on MRI. The average AWE score was 1.2 {+-} 1.4 points. The prevalence of AWE was 30.5%, 64.5% and 100% in mild, moderate and severe AP, respectively, according to MRSI. AWE on MRI was correlated with MRSI scores (r = 0.441, p = 0.000). According to APACHE III scores, the averages were 2.0 {+-} 1.1 and 2.6 {+-} 1.1 points in mild AP and severe AP, respectively (P = 0.016). AWE was slightly correlated with the APACHE III scores (r = 0.222, p = 0.005). Conclusion: AWE on MRI in acute pancreatitis is common, which may be a supplementary indicator in determining the severity of AP.

Mechanical characterization of densely welded Apache Leap tuff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuenkajorn, K.; Daemen, J.J.K.

1991-06-01

An empirical criterion is formulated to describe the compressive strength of the densely welded Apache Leap tuff. The criterion incorporates the effects of size, L/D ratio, loading rate and density variations. The criterion improves the correlation between the test results and the failure envelope. Uniaxial and triaxial compressive strengths, Brazilian tensile strength and elastic properties of the densely welded brown unit of the Apache Leap tuff have been determined using the ASTM standard test methods. All tuff samples are tested dry at room temperature (22 ± 2 degrees C), and have the core axis normal to the flow layers. The uniaxial compressive strength is 73.2 ± 16.5 MPa. The Brazilian tensile strength is 5.12 ± 1.2 MPa. The Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio are 22.6 ± 5.7 GPa and 0.20 ± 0.03. Smoothness and perpendicularity do not fully meet the ASTM requirements for all samples, due to the presence of voids and inclusions on the sample surfaces and the sample preparation methods. The investigations of loading rate, L/D radio and cyclic loading effects on the compressive strength and of the size effect on the tensile strength are not conclusive. The Coulomb strength criterion adequately represents the failure envelope of the tuff under confining pressures from 0 to 62 MPa. Cohesion and internal friction angle are 16 MPa and 43 degrees. The brown unit of the Apache Leap tuff is highly heterogeneous as suggested by large variations of the test results. The high intrinsic variability of the tuff is probably caused by the presence of flow layers and by nonuniform distributions of inclusions, voids and degree of welding. Similar variability of the properties has been found in publications on the Topopah Spring tuff at Yucca Mountain. 57 refs., 32 figs., 29 tabs

Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Age, gender, body weight, initial diagnosis, clinic of referral, intubation, comorbidities, APACHE II, APACHE IV, Glasgow coma scale, SAPS III scores, length of hospitalization before referral to ICU, length of stay in ICU, mechanical ventilation were recorded. Results: Most of the patients (54.6%) were consulted from ...

Performance of the score systems Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and III at an interdisciplinary intensive care unit, after customization

Science.gov (United States)

Markgraf, Rainer; Deutschinoff, Gerd; Pientka, Ludger; Scholten, Theo; Lorenz, Cristoph

2001-01-01

Background: Mortality predictions calculated using scoring scales are often not accurate in populations other than those in which the scales were developed because of differences in case-mix. The present study investigates the effect of first-level customization, using a logistic regression technique, on discrimination and calibration of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III scales. Method: Probabilities of hospital death for patients were estimated by applying APACHE II and III and comparing these with observed outcomes. Using the split sample technique, a customized model to predict outcome was developed by logistic regression. The overall goodness-of-fit of the original and the customized models was assessed. Results: Of 3383 consecutive intensive care unit (ICU) admissions over 3 years, 2795 patients could be analyzed, and were split randomly into development and validation samples. The discriminative powers of APACHE II and III were unchanged by customization (areas under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve 0.82 and 0.85, respectively). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests showed good calibration for APACHE II, but insufficient calibration for APACHE III. Customization improved calibration for both models, with a good fit for APACHE III as well. However, fit was different for various subgroups. Conclusions: The overall goodness-of-fit of APACHE III mortality prediction was improved significantly by customization, but uniformity of fit in different subgroups was not achieved. Therefore, application of the customized model provides no advantage, because differences in case-mix still limit comparisons of quality of care. PMID:11178223

Apaches push privatization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, S.

1994-01-01

Trying to drum up business for what would be the first private temporary storage facility for spent nuclear fuel rods, the Mescalero Apaches are inviting officials of 30 utilities to convene March 10 at the tribe's New Mexico reservation. The state public utilities commission will also attend the meeting, which grew from an agreement the tribe signed last month with Minneapolis-based Northern States Power Co

Perl and Apache Your visual blueprint for developing dynamic Web content

CERN Document Server

McDaniel, Adam

2010-01-01

Visually explore the range of built-in and third-party libraries of Perl and Apache. Perl and Apache have been providing Common Gateway Interface (CGI) access to Web sites for 20 years and are constantly evolving to support the ever-changing demands of Internet users. With this book, you will heighten your knowledge and see how to usePerl and Apache to develop dynamic Web sites. Beginning with a clear, step-by-step explanation of how to install Perl and Apache on both Windows and Linux servers, you then move on to configuring each to securely provide CGI Services. CGI developer and author Adam

Validation of acute physiologic and chronic health evaluation II scoring system software developed at The Aga Khan University, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashmi, M; Asghar, A; Shamim, F; Khan, F H

2016-01-01

To assess the predictive performance of Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) software available on the hospital intranet and analyze interrater reliability of calculating the APACHE II score by the gold standard manual method or automatically using the software. An expert scorer not involved in the data collection had calculated APACHE II score of 213 patients admitted to surgical Intensive Care Unit using the gold standard manual method for a previous study performed in the department. The same data were entered into the computer software available on the hospital intranet (http://intranet/apacheii) to recalculate the APACHE II score automatically along with the predicted mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistical test and Pearson's correlation coefficient was computed. The 213 patients had an average APACHE II score of 17.20 ± 8.24, the overall mortality rate was 32.8% and standardized mortality ratio was 1.00. The area under the ROC curve of 0.827 was significantly >0.5 (P test showed a good calibration (H = 5.46, P = 0.71). Interrater reliability using Pearson's product moment correlations demonstrated a strong positive relationship between the computer and the manual expert scorer (r = 0.98, P = 0.0005). APACHE II software available on the hospital's intranet has satisfactory calibration and discrimination and interrater reliability is good when compared with the gold standard manual method.

Mastering Apache Cassandra

CERN Document Server

Neeraj, Nishant

2013-01-01

Mastering Apache Cassandra is a practical, hands-on guide with step-by-step instructions. The smooth and easy tutorial approach focuses on showing people how to utilize Cassandra to its full potential.This book is aimed at intermediate Cassandra users. It is best suited for startups where developers have to wear multiple hats: programmer, DevOps, release manager, convincing clients, and handling failures. No prior knowledge of Cassandra is required.

Apache Cordova 3 programming

CERN Document Server

Wargo, John M

2013-01-01

Written for experienced mobile developers, Apache Cordova 3 Programming is a complete introduction to Apache Cordova 3 and Adobe PhoneGap 3. It describes what makes Cordova important and shows how to install and use the tools, the new Cordova CLI, the native SDKs, and more. If you’re brand new to Cordova, this book will be just what you need to get started. If you’re familiar with an older version of Cordova, this book will show you in detail how to use all of the new stuff that’s in Cordova 3 plus stuff that has been around for a while (like the Cordova core APIs). After walking you through the process of downloading and setting up the framework, mobile expert John M. Wargo shows you how to install and use the command line tools to manage the Cordova application lifecycle and how to set up and use development environments for several of the more popular Cordova supported mobile device platforms. Of special interest to new developers are the chapters on the anatomy of a Cordova application, as well ...

Correlation of probability scores of placenta accreta on magnetic resonance imaging with hemorrhagic morbidity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Grace; Horowitz, Jeanne M; Berggruen, Senta; Ernst, Linda M; Linn, Rebecca L; Hewlett, Bradley; Kim, Jennifer; Chalifoux, Laurie A; McCarthy, Robert J

2016-11-01

To evaluate the hypothesis that assigning grades to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of suspected placenta accreta will correlate with hemorrhagic outcomes. We chose a single-center, retrospective, observational design. Nulliparous or multiparous women who had antenatal placental MRI performed at a tertiary level academic hospital were included. Cases with antenatal placental MRI were included and compared with cases without MRI performed. Two radiologists assigned a probability score for accreta to each study. Estimated blood loss and transfusion requirements were compared among groups by the Kruskal-Wallis H test. Thirty-five cases had placental MRI performed. MRI performance was associated with higher blood loss compared with the non-MRI group (2600 [1400-4500]mL vs 900[600-1500]mL, Paccreta, probability scores for antenatal placental MRI may not be associated with increasing degrees of hemorrhage. Continued research is warranted to determine the effectiveness of assigning probability scores for antenatal accreta imaging studies, combined with clinical indices of suspicion, in assisting with antenatal multidisciplinary team planning for operative management of this morbid condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Apache ZooKeeper essentials

CERN Document Server

Haloi, Saurav

2015-01-01

Whether you are a novice to ZooKeeper or already have some experience, you will be able to master the concepts of ZooKeeper and its usage with ease. This book assumes you to have some prior knowledge of distributed systems and high-level programming knowledge of C, Java, or Python, but no experience with Apache ZooKeeper is required.

Optimization of continuous ranked probability score using PSO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyedeh Atefeh Mohammadi

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Weather forecast has been a major concern in various industries such as agriculture, aviation, maritime, tourism, transportation, etc. A good weather prediction may reduce natural disasters and unexpected events. This paper presents an empirical investigation to predict weather temperature using continuous ranked probability score (CRPS. The mean and standard deviation of normal density function are linear combination of the components of ensemble system. The resulted optimization model has been solved using particle swarm optimization (PSO and the results are compared with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS method. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed PSO provides better results in terms of root-mean-square deviation criteria than the alternative BFGS method.

Instant Apache Camel message routing

CERN Document Server

Ibryam, Bilgin

2013-01-01

Filled with practical, step-by-step instructions and clear explanations for the most important and useful tasks. This short, instruction-based guide shows you how to perform application integration using the industry standard Enterprise Integration Patterns.This book is intended for Java developers who are new to Apache Camel and message- oriented applications.

Biology and distribution of Lutzomyia apache as it relates to VSV

Science.gov (United States)

Phlebotomine sand flies are vectors of bacteria, parasites, and viruses. Lutzomyia apache was incriminated as a vector of vesicular stomatitis viruses(VSV)due to overlapping ranges of the sand fly and outbreaks of VSV. I report on newly discovered populations of L. apache in Wyoming from Albany and ...

A probability score for preoperative prediction of type 2 diabetes remission following RYGB surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Still, Christopher D.; Wood, G. Craig; Benotti, Peter; Petrick, Anthony T.; Gabrielsen, Jon; Strodel, William E.; Ibele, Anna; Seiler, Jamie; Irving, Brian A.; Celaya, Melisa P.; Blackstone, Robin; Gerhard, Glenn S.; Argyropoulos, George

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a metabolic disease with significant medical complications. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery is one of the few interventions that remit T2D in ~60% of patients. However, there is no accurate method for predicting preoperatively the probability for T2D remission. METHODS A retrospective cohort of 2,300 RYGB patients at Geisinger Clinic was used to identify 690 patients with T2D and complete electronic data. Two additional T2D cohorts (N=276, and N=113) were used for replication at 14 months following RYGB. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used in the primary cohort to create survival curves until remission. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios on T2D remission. FINDINGS Using 259 preoperative clinical variables, four (use of insulin, age, HbA1c, and type of antidiabetic medication) were sufficient to develop an algorithm that produces a type 2 diabetes remission (DiaRem) score over five years. The DiaRem score spans from 0 to 22 and was divided into five groups corresponding to five probability-ranges for T2D remission: 0–2 (88%–99%), 3–7 (64%–88%), 8–12 (23%–49%), 13–17 (11%–33%), 18–22 (2%–16%). The DiaRem scores in the replication cohorts, as well as under various definitions of diabetes remission, conformed to the DiaRem score of the primary cohort. INTERPRETATION The DiaRem score is a novel preoperative method for predicting the probability (from 2% to 99%) for T2D remission following RYGB surgery. FUNDING This research was supported by the Geisinger Health System and the National Institutes of Health. PMID:24579062

77 FR 51475 - Safety Zone; Apache Pier Labor Day Fireworks; Myrtle Beach, SC

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-24

...-AA00 Safety Zone; Apache Pier Labor Day Fireworks; Myrtle Beach, SC AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION... Atlantic Ocean in the vicinity of Apache Pier in Myrtle Beach, SC, during the Labor Day fireworks... [[Page 51476

Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

Science.gov (United States)

Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

2005-01-01

No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

Solar Feasibility Study May 2013 - San Carlos Apache Tribe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rapp, Jim [Parametrix; Duncan, Ken [San Carlos Apache Tribe; Albert, Steve [Parametrix

2013-05-01

The San Carlos Apache Tribe (Tribe) in the interests of strengthening tribal sovereignty, becoming more energy self-sufficient, and providing improved services and economic opportunities to tribal members and San Carlos Apache Reservation (Reservation) residents and businesses, has explored a variety of options for renewable energy development. The development of renewable energy technologies and generation is consistent with the Tribe’s 2011 Strategic Plan. This Study assessed the possibilities for both commercial-scale and community-scale solar development within the southwestern portions of the Reservation around the communities of San Carlos, Peridot, and Cutter, and in the southeastern Reservation around the community of Bylas. Based on the lack of any commercial-scale electric power transmission between the Reservation and the regional transmission grid, Phase 2 of this Study greatly expanded consideration of community-scale options. Three smaller sites (Point of Pines, Dudleyville/Winkleman, and Seneca Lake) were also evaluated for community-scale solar potential. Three building complexes were identified within the Reservation where the development of site-specific facility-scale solar power would be the most beneficial and cost-effective: Apache Gold Casino/Resort, Tribal College/Skill Center, and the Dudleyville (Winkleman) Casino.

Apache, Santa Fe energy units awarded two Myanmar blocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that Myanmar's state oil company has awarded production sharing contracts (PSCs) on two blocks to units of Apache Corp. and Santa Fe Energy Resources Inc., both of Houston. That comes on the heels of a report by County NatWest Woodmac that notes Myanmar's oil production, currently meeting less than half the country's demand, is set to fall further this year. 150 line km of new seismic data could be acquired and one well drilled. During the initial 2 year exploration period on Block EP-3, Apache will conduct geological studies and conduct at least 200 line km of seismic data

Satellite Imagery Production and Processing Using Apache Hadoop

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, D. V.; Werpy, J.

2011-12-01

The United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center Land Science Research and Development (LSRD) project has devised a method to fulfill its processing needs for Essential Climate Variable (ECV) production from the Landsat archive using Apache Hadoop. Apache Hadoop is the distributed processing technology at the heart of many large-scale, processing solutions implemented at well-known companies such as Yahoo, Amazon, and Facebook. It is a proven framework and can be used to process petabytes of data on thousands of processors concurrently. It is a natural fit for producing satellite imagery and requires only a few simple modifications to serve the needs of science data processing. This presentation provides an invaluable learning opportunity and should be heard by anyone doing large scale image processing today. The session will cover a description of the problem space, evaluation of alternatives, feature set overview, configuration of Hadoop for satellite image processing, real-world performance results, tuning recommendations and finally challenges and ongoing activities. It will also present how the LSRD project built a 102 core processing cluster with no financial hardware investment and achieved ten times the initial daily throughput requirements with a full time staff of only one engineer. Satellite Imagery Production and Processing Using Apache Hadoop is presented by David V. Hill, Principal Software Architect for USGS LSRD.

An External Independent Validation of APACHE IV in a Malaysian Intensive Care Unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Rowena S Y; Ismail, Noor Azina; Tan, Cheng Cheng

2015-04-01

Intensive care unit (ICU) prognostic models are predominantly used in more developed nations such as the United States, Europe and Australia. These are not that popular in Southeast Asian countries due to costs and technology considerations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the suitability of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV model in a single centre Malaysian ICU. A prospective study was conducted at the single centre ICU in Hospital Sultanah Aminah (HSA) Malaysia. External validation of APACHE IV involved a cohort of 916 patients who were admitted in 2009. Model performance was assessed through its calibration and discrimination abilities. A first-level customisation using logistic regression approach was also applied to improve model calibration. APACHE IV exhibited good discrimination, with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78. However, the model's overall fit was observed to be poor, as indicated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (Ĉ = 113, P discrimination was not affected. APACHE IV is not suitable for application in HSA ICU, without further customisation. The model's lack of fit in the Malaysian study is attributed to differences in the baseline characteristics between HSA ICU and APACHE IV datasets. Other possible factors could be due to differences in clinical practice, quality and services of health care systems between Malaysia and the United States.

Network Intrusion Detection System using Apache Storm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Asif Manzoor

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Network security implements various strategies for the identification and prevention of security breaches. Network intrusion detection is a critical component of network management for security, quality of service and other purposes. These systems allow early detection of network intrusion and malicious activities; so that the Network Security infrastructure can react to mitigate these threats. Various systems are proposed to enhance the network security. We are proposing to use anomaly based network intrusion detection system in this work. Anomaly based intrusion detection system can identify the new network threats. We also propose to use Real-time Big Data Stream Processing Framework, Apache Storm, for the implementation of network intrusion detection system. Apache Storm can help to manage the network traffic which is generated at enormous speed and size and the network traffic speed and size is constantly increasing. We have used Support Vector Machine in this work. We use Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 1999 (KDD’99 dataset to test and evaluate our proposed solution.

Optimizing CMS build infrastructure via Apache Mesos

CERN Document Server

Abduracmanov, David; Degano, Alessandro; Elmer, Peter; Eulisse, Giulio; Mendez, David; Muzaffar, Shahzad

2015-12-23

The Offline Software of the CMS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN consists of 6M lines of in-house code, developed over a decade by nearly 1000 physicists, as well as a comparable amount of general use open-source code. A critical ingredient to the success of the construction and early operation of the WLCG was the convergence, around the year 2000, on the use of a homogeneous environment of commodity x86-64 processors and Linux. Apache Mesos is a cluster manager that provides efficient resource isolation and sharing across distributed applications, or frameworks. It can run Hadoop, Jenkins, Spark, Aurora, and other applications on a dynamically shared pool of nodes. We present how we migrated our continuos integration system to schedule jobs on a relatively small Apache Mesos enabled cluster and how this resulted in better resource usage, higher peak performance and lower latency thanks to the dynamic scheduling capabilities of Mesos.

Managing Variant Calling Files the Big Data Way: Using HDFS and Apache Parquet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boufea, Aikaterini; Finkers, H.J.; Kaauwen, van M.P.W.; Kramer, M.R.; Athanasiadis, I.N.

2017-01-01

Big Data has been seen as a remedy for the efficient management of the ever-increasing genomic data. In this paper, we investigate the use of Apache Spark to store and process Variant Calling Files (VCF) on a Hadoop cluster. We demonstrate Tomatula, a software tool for converting VCF files to Apache

[Predictive values of different critical scoring systems for mortality in patients with severe acute respiratory failure supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, R; Sun, B; Li, X Y; He, H Y; Tang, X; Zhan, Q Y; Tong, Z H

2016-09-01

To investigate the predictive values of different critical scoring systems for mortality in patients with severe acute respiratory failure (ARF) supported by venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO). Forty-two patients with severe ARF supported by VV-ECMO were enrolled from November 2009 to July 2015.There were 25 males and 17 females. The mean age was (44±18) years (rang 18-69 years). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ, Simplified Acute Physiology Score Ⅱ (SAPS) Ⅱ, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), ECMO net, PRedicting dEath for SEvere ARDS on VVECMO (PRESERVE), and Respiratory ECMO Survival Prediction (RESP) scores were collected within 6 hours before VV-ECMO support. The patients were divided into the survivors group (n=17) and the nonsurvivors group (n=25) by survival at 180 d after receiving VV-ECMO. The patient clinical characteristics and aforementioned scoring systems were compared between groups. Scoring systems for predicting prognosis were assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the surviving curve, and the survival of the patients was analyzed by the Log-rank test. The risk factors were assessed for prognosis by multiple logistic regression analysis. (1) Positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP) 6 hours prior to VV-ECMO support in the survivors group [(9.7±5.0)cmH2O, (1 cmH2O=0.098 kPa)] was lower than that in the nonsurvivors group [(13.2±5.4)cmH2O, t=-2.134, P=0.039]. VV-ECMO combination with continuous renal replacement therapy(CRRT) in the nonsurvivors group (32%) was used more than in the survivors group (6%, χ(2)=4.100, P=0.043). Duration of VV-ECMO support in the nonsurvivors group [(15±13) d] was longer than that in the survivors group [(12±11)d, t=-2.123, P=0.041]. APACHE Ⅱ, APACHE Ⅲ, APACHE Ⅳ, ECMO net, PRESERVE, and RESP scores in the survivors group were superior to the nonsurvivors

Jicarilla Apache Utility Authority Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Strategic Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rabago, K.R.

2008-06-28

The purpose of this Strategic Plan Report is to provide an introduction and in-depth analysis of the issues and opportunities, resources, and technologies of energy efficiency and renewable energy that have potential beneficial application for the people of the Jicarilla Apache Nation and surrounding communities. The Report seeks to draw on the best available information that existed at the time of writing, and where necessary, draws on new research to assess this potential. This study provides a strategic assessment of opportunities for maximizing the potential for electrical energy efficiency and renewable energy development by the Jicarilla Apache Nation. The report analyzes electricity use on the Jicarilla Apache Reservation in buildings. The report also assesses particular resources and technologies in detail, including energy efficiency, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and small hydropower. The closing sections set out the elements of a multi-year, multi-phase strategy for development of resources to the maximum benefit of the Nation.

75 FR 68607 - BP Canada Energy Marketing Corp. Apache Corporation; Notice for Temporary Waivers

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-08

... Energy Marketing Corp. Apache Corporation; Notice for Temporary Waivers November 1, 2010. Take notice that on October 29, 2010, BP Canada Energy Marketing Corp. and Apache Corporation filed with the... assistance with any FERC Online service, please e-mail [email protected] , or call (866) 208-3676...

Learning Apache Solr high performance

CERN Document Server

Mohan, Surendra

2014-01-01

This book is an easy-to-follow guide, full of hands-on, real-world examples. Each topic is explained and demonstrated in a specific and user-friendly flow, from search optimization using Solr to Deployment of Zookeeper applications. This book is ideal for Apache Solr developers and want to learn different techniques to optimize Solr performance with utmost efficiency, along with effectively troubleshooting the problems that usually occur while trying to boost performance. Familiarity with search servers and database querying is expected.

Prediction of heart disease using apache spark analysing decision trees and gradient boosting algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Chugh, Saryu; Arivu Selvan, K.; Nadesh, RK

2017-11-01

Numerous destructive things influence the working arrangement of human body as hypertension, smoking, obesity, inappropriate medication taking which causes many contrasting diseases as diabetes, thyroid, strokes and coronary diseases. The impermanence and horribleness of the environment situation is also the reason for the coronary disease. The structure of Apache start relies on the evolution which requires gathering of the data. To break down the significance of use programming focused on data structure the Apache stop ought to be utilized and it gives various central focuses as it is fast in light as it uses memory worked in preparing. Apache Spark continues running on dispersed environment and chops down the data in bunches giving a high profitability rate. Utilizing mining procedure as a part of the determination of coronary disease has been exhaustively examined indicating worthy levels of precision. Decision trees, Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Algorithm are the various apache spark proficiencies which help in collecting the information.

Conservation priorities in the Apache Highlands ecoregion

Science.gov (United States)

Dale Turner; Rob Marshall; Carolyn A. F. Enquist; Anne Gondor; David F. Gori; Eduardo Lopez; Gonzalo Luna; Rafaela Paredes Aguilar; Chris Watts; Sabra Schwartz

2005-01-01

The Apache Highlands ecoregion incorporates the entire Madrean Archipelago/Sky Island region. We analyzed the current distribution of 223 target species and 26 terrestrial ecological systems there, and compared them with constraints on ecosystem integrity (e.g., road density) to determine the most efficient set of areas needed to maintain current biodiversity. The...

Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Khwannimit, Bodin

2008-09-01

To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

Apache Flume distributed log collection for Hadoop

CERN Document Server

Hoffman, Steve

2015-01-01

If you are a Hadoop programmer who wants to learn about Flume to be able to move datasets into Hadoop in a timely and replicable manner, then this book is ideal for you. No prior knowledge about Apache Flume is necessary, but a basic knowledge of Hadoop and the Hadoop File System (HDFS) is assumed.

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Majewski, Steven R.; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Frinchaboy, Peter M.

2017-01-01

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three-year observing campaign on the...

Instant Apache Camel messaging system

CERN Document Server

Sharapov, Evgeniy

2013-01-01

Get to grips with a new technology, understand what it is and what it can do for you, and then get to work with the most important features and tasks. A beginner's guide to Apache Camel that walks you through basic operations like installation and setup right through to developing simple applications.This book is a good starting point for Java developers who have to work on an application dealing with various systems and interfaces but who haven't yet started using Enterprise System Buses or Java Business Integration frameworks.

Spinal Pain and Occupational Disability: A Cohort Study of British Apache AH Mk1 Pilots

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

British RW community. 33 References Apache AH Mk1. 2012. Agusta Westland. http://www.agustawestland.com/ product /apache-ah- mk1-0. Ang, B., and...muscles Physical ex and stretching Continued pt and stretching exercises Use pt session included pumpkin bobs to stretch the neck. No effects noticed

A new plan-scoring method using normal tissue complication probability for personalized treatment plan decisions in prostate cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Suk; Shim, Jang Bo; Yang, Dae Sik; Yoon, Won Sup; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cao, Yuan Jie; Chang, Kyung Hwan

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to derive a new plan-scoring index using normal tissue complication probabilities to verify different plans in the selection of personalized treatment. Plans for 12 patients treated with tomotherapy were used to compare scoring for ranking. Dosimetric and biological indexes were analyzed for the plans for a clearly distinguishable group ( n = 7) and a similar group ( n = 12), using treatment plan verification software that we developed. The quality factor ( QF) of our support software for treatment decisions was consistent with the final treatment plan for the clearly distinguishable group (average QF = 1.202, 100% match rate, n = 7) and the similar group (average QF = 1.058, 33% match rate, n = 12). Therefore, we propose a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) based on the plan scoring index for verification of different plans for personalized treatment-plan selection. Scoring using the new QF showed a 100% match rate (average NTCP QF = 1.0420). The NTCP-based new QF scoring method was adequate for obtaining biological verification quality and organ risk saving using the treatment-planning decision-support software we developed for prostate cancer.

A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

2015-05-01

Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

Analyzing large data sets from XGC1 magnetic fusion simulations using apache spark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Churchill, R. Michael [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)

2016-11-21

Apache Spark is explored as a tool for analyzing large data sets from the magnetic fusion simulation code XGCI. Implementation details of Apache Spark on the NERSC Edison supercomputer are discussed, including binary file reading, and parameter setup. Here, an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, k-means clustering, is applied to XGCI particle distribution function data, showing that highly turbulent spatial regions do not have common coherent structures, but rather broad, ring-like structures in velocity space.

Jicarilla Apache Utility Authority. Strategic Plan for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabago, K.R.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this Strategic Plan Report is to provide an introduction and in-depth analysis of the issues and opportunities, resources, and technologies of energy efficiency and renewable energy that have potential beneficial application for the people of the Jicarilla Apache Nation and surrounding communities. The Report seeks to draw on the best available information that existed at the time of writing, and where necessary, draws on new research to assess this potential. This study provides a strategic assessment of opportunities for maximizing the potential for electrical energy efficiency and renewable energy development by the Jicarilla Apache Nation. The report analyzes electricity use on the Jicarilla Apache Reservation in buildings. The report also assesses particular resources and technologies in detail, including energy efficiency, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and small hydropower. The closing sections set out the elements of a multi-year, multi-phase strategy for development of resources to the maximum benefit of the Nation

Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhihong Feng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We aimed to investigate the efficacy of four severity-of-disease scoring systems in predicting the 28-day survival rate among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD requiring emergency care. Clinical data of patients with AECOPD who required emergency care were recorded over 2 years. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and MEDS scores were calculated from severity-of-disease indicators recorded at admission and compared between patients who died within 28 days of admission (death group; 46 patients and those who did not (survival group; 336 patients. Compared to the survival group, the death group had a significantly higher GCS score, frequency of comorbidities including hypertension and heart failure, and age (P<0.05 for all. With all four systems, scores of age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and the GCS were significantly higher in the death group than the survival group. The prediction efficacy of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 88.4%. The survival rates did not differ significantly between APACHE II and SAPS II (P=1.519. Our results may guide triage for early identification of critically ill patients with AECOPD in the emergency department.

Preliminary Assessment of Apache Hopefulness: Relationships with Hopelessness and with Collective as well as Personal Self-Esteem

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Vanessa Lea; Watson, P. J.; O'Leary, Brian J.; Cothran, D. Lisa

2009-01-01

Hopelessness is central to prominent mental health problems within American Indian (AI) communities. Apaches living on a reservation in Arizona responded to diverse expressions of hope along with Hopelessness, Personal Self-Esteem, and Collective Self-Esteem scales. An Apache Hopefulness Scale expressed five themes of hope and correlated…

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing-Bian Ma

2017-01-01

Conclusions: The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

SIRS score on admission and initial concentration of IL-6 as severe acute pancreatitis outcome predictors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregoric, Pavle; Pavle, Gregoric; Sijacki, Ana; Ana, Sijacki; Stankovic, Sanja; Sanja, Stankovic; Radenkovic, Dejan; Dejan, Radenkovic; Ivancevic, Nenad; Nenad, Ivancevic; Karamarkovic, Aleksandar; Aleksandar, Karamarkovic; Popovic, Nada; Nada, Popovic; Karadzic, Borivoje; Borivoje, Karadzic; Stijak, Lazar; Stefanovic, Branislav; Branislav, Stefanovic; Milosevic, Zoran; Zoran, Milosević; Bajec, Djordje; Djordje, Bajec

2010-01-01

Early recognition of severe form of acute pancreatitis is important because these patients need more agressive diagnostic and therapeutical approach an can develope systemic complications such as: sepsis, coagulopathy, Acute Lung Injury (ALI), Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS), Multiple Organ Failure (MOF). To determine role of the combination of Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) score and serum Interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on admission as predictor of illness severity and outcome of Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP). We evaluated 234 patients with first onset of SAP appears in last twenty four hours. A total of 77 (33%) patients died. SIRS score and serum IL-6 concentration were measured in first hour after admission. In 105 patients with SIRS score 3 and higher, initial measured IL-6 levels were significantly higher than in the group of remaining 129 patients (72 +/- 67 pg/mL, vs 18 +/- 15 pg/mL). All nonsurvivals were in the first group, with SIRS score 3 and 4 and initial IL-6 concentration 113 +/- 27 pg/mL. The values of C-reactive Protein (CRP) measured after 48h, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score on admission and Ranson score showed the similar correlation, but serum amylase level did not correlate significantly with Ranson score, IL-6 concentration and APACHE II score. The combination of SIRS score on admission and IL-6 serum concentration can be early, predictor of illness severity and outcome in SAP.

Large-Scale Graph Processing Using Apache Giraph

KAUST Repository

Sakr, Sherif

2017-01-07

This book takes its reader on a journey through Apache Giraph, a popular distributed graph processing platform designed to bring the power of big data processing to graph data. Designed as a step-by-step self-study guide for everyone interested in large-scale graph processing, it describes the fundamental abstractions of the system, its programming models and various techniques for using the system to process graph data at scale, including the implementation of several popular and advanced graph analytics algorithms.

Large-Scale Graph Processing Using Apache Giraph

KAUST Repository

Sakr, Sherif; Orakzai, Faisal Moeen; Abdelaziz, Ibrahim; Khayyat, Zuhair

2017-01-01

This book takes its reader on a journey through Apache Giraph, a popular distributed graph processing platform designed to bring the power of big data processing to graph data. Designed as a step-by-step self-study guide for everyone interested in large-scale graph processing, it describes the fundamental abstractions of the system, its programming models and various techniques for using the system to process graph data at scale, including the implementation of several popular and advanced graph analytics algorithms.

Ergonomic and anthropometric issues of the forward Apache crew station

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oudenhuijzen, A.J.K.

1999-01-01

This paper describes the anthropometric accommodation in the Apache crew systems. These activities are part of a comprehensive project, in a cooperative effort from the Armstrong Laboratory at Wright Patterson Air Force Base (Dayton, Ohio, USA) and TNO Human Factors Research Institute (TNO HFRI) in

Uncomfortable Experience: Lessons Lost in the Apache War

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

the Apache War gripped the focus of American and Mexican citizens throughout Arizona, New Mexico, Chihuahua , and Sonora for a period greater than...Arizona and portions of New Mexico, and Northern Sonora and Chihuahua .5 Although confusion exists as to their true subdivisions, the Chokonen led by...contributed directly to the Victorio War, the Loco and Geronimo campaigns, and the Nana and Chatto- Chihuahua raids that followed.38 Once again, failure to

Fallugia paradoxa (D. Don) Endl. ex Torr.: Apache-plume

Science.gov (United States)

Susan E. Meyer

2008-01-01

The genus Fallugia contains a single species - Apache-plume, F. paradoxa (D. Don) Endl. ex Torr. - found throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. It occurs mostly on coarse soils on benches and especially along washes and canyons in both warm and cool desert shrub communities and up into the pinyon-juniper vegetation type. It is a sprawling, much-...

Are cicadas (Diceroprocta apache) both a "keystone" and a "critical-link" species in lower Colorado River riparian communities?

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Douglas C.

1994-01-01

Apache cicada (Homoptera: Cicadidae: Diceroprocta apache Davis) densities were estimated to be 10 individuals/m2 within a closed-canopy stand of Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and Goodding willow (Salix gooddingii) in a revegetated site adjacent to the Colorado River near Parker, Arizona. Coupled with data drawn from the literature, I estimate that up to 1.3 cm (13 1/m2) of water may be added to the upper soil layers annually through the feeding activities of cicada nymphs. This is equivalent to 12% of the annual precipitation received in the study area. Apache cicadas may have significant effects on ecosystem functioning via effects on water transport and thus act as a critical-link species in this southwest desert riverine ecosystem. Cicadas emerged later within the cottonwood-willow stand than in relatively open saltcedar-mesquite stands; this difference in temporal dynamics would affect their availability to several insectivorous bird species and may help explain the birds' recent declines. Resource managers in this region should be sensitive to the multiple and strong effects that Apache cicadas may have on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Kelayakan Raspberry Pi sebagai Web Server: Perbandingan Kinerja Nginx, Apache, dan Lighttpd pada Platform Raspberry Pi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahmad Dawood

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Raspberry Pi is a small-sized computer, but it can function like an ordinary computer. Because it can function like a regular PC then it is also possible to run a web server application on the Raspberry Pi. This paper will report results from testing the feasibility and performance of running a web server on the Raspberry Pi. The test was conducted on the current top three most popular web servers, which are: Apache, Nginx, and Lighttpd. The parameters used to evaluate the feasibility and performance of these web servers were: maximum request and reply time. The results from the test showed that it is feasible to run all three web servers on the Raspberry Pi but Nginx gave the best performance followed by Lighttpd and Apache.Keywords: Raspberry Pi, web server, Apache, Lighttpd, Nginx, web server performance

Lutzomyia (Helcocyrtomyia) Apache Young and Perkins (Diptera: Psychodidae) feeds on reptiles

Science.gov (United States)

Phlebotomine sand flies are vectors of bacteria, parasites, and viruses. In the western USA a sand fly, Lutzomyia apache Young and Perkins, was initially associated with epizootics of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), because sand flies were trapped at sites of an outbreak. Additional studies indica...

Seguridad en la configuración del servidor web Apache

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Eduardo Gómez Montoya

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Apache es el servidor Web con mayor presencia en el mercado mundial. Aunque su configuración es relativamente sencilla, fortalecer sus condiciones de seguridad implica entender y aplicar un conjunto de reglas generales conocidas, aceptadas y disponibles. Por otra parte, a pesar de ser un tema aparentemente resuelto, la seguridad en los servidores HTTP constituye un problema en aumento, y no todas las compañías lo toman en serio. Este artículo identifica y verifica un conjunto de buenas prácticas de seguridad informática aplicadas a la configuración de Apache. Para alcanzar los objetivos, y con el fin de garantizar un proceso adecuado, se eligió una metodología basada en el Círculo de Calidad de Deming, el cual comprende cuatro fases: planear, hacer, verificar y actuar, y su aplicación condujo el desarrollo del proyecto. Este artículo consta de cinco secciones: Introducción, Marco de referencia, Metodología, Resultados y discusión, y Conclusiones.

The White Mountain Recreational Enterprise: Bio-Political Foundations for White Mountain Apache Natural Resource Control, 1945–1960

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David C. Tomblin

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Among American Indian nations, the White Mountain Apache Tribe has been at the forefront of a struggle to control natural resource management within reservation boundaries. In 1952, they developed the first comprehensive tribal natural resource management program, the White Mountain Recreational Enterprise (WMRE, which became a cornerstone for fighting legal battles over the tribe’s right to manage cultural and natural resources on the reservation for the benefit of the tribal community rather than outside interests. This article examines how White Mountain Apaches used the WMRE, while embracing both Euro-American and Apache traditions, as an institutional foundation for resistance and exchange with Euro-American society so as to reassert control over tribal eco-cultural resources in east-central Arizona.

[Severity of disease scoring systems and mortality after non-cardiac surgery].

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, Pedro Videira; Sousa, Gabriela; Lopes, Ana Martins; Costa, Ana Vera; Santos, Alice; Abelha, Fernando José

2018-04-05

Mortality after surgery is frequent and severity of disease scoring systems are used for prediction. Our aim was to evaluate predictors for mortality after non-cardiac surgery. Adult patients admitted at our surgical intensive care unit between January 2006 and July 2013 was included. Univariate analysis was carried using Mann-Whitney, Chi-square or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression was performed to assess independent factors with calculation of odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). 4398 patients were included. Mortality was 1.4% in surgical intensive care unit and 7.4% during hospital stay. Independent predictors of mortality in surgical intensive care unit were APACHE II (OR=1.24); emergent surgery (OR=4.10), serum sodium (OR=1.06) and FiO 2 at admission (OR=14.31). Serum bicarbonate at admission (OR=0.89) was considered a protective factor. Independent predictors of hospital mortality were age (OR=1.02), APACHE II (OR=1.09), emergency surgery (OR=1.82), high-risk surgery (OR=1.61), FiO 2 at admission (OR=1.02), postoperative acute renal failure (OR=1.96), heart rate (OR=1.01) and serum sodium (OR=1.04). Dying patients had higher scores in severity of disease scoring systems and longer surgical intensive care unit stay. Some factors influenced both surgical intensive care unit and hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

The customization of APACHE II for patients receiving orthotopic liver transplants

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, Rui

2002-01-01

General outcome prediction models developed for use with large, multicenter databases of critically ill patients may not correctly estimate mortality if applied to a particular group of patients that was under-represented in the original database. The development of new diagnostic weights has been proposed as a method of adapting the general model – the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II in this case – to a new group of patients. Such customization must be empirically tested, because the original model cannot contain an appropriate set of predictive variables for the particular group. In this issue of Critical Care, Arabi and co-workers present the results of the validation of a modified model of the APACHE II system for patients receiving orthotopic liver transplants. The use of a highly heterogeneous database for which not all important variables were taken into account and of a sample too small to use the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test appropriately makes their conclusions uncertain. PMID:12133174

Beginning PHP, Apache, MySQL web development

CERN Document Server

Glass, Michael K; Naramore, Elizabeth; Mailer, Gary; Stolz, Jeremy; Gerner, Jason

2004-01-01

An ideal introduction to the entire process of setting up a Web site using PHP (a scripting language), MySQL (a database management system), and Apache (a Web server)* Programmers will be up and running in no time, whether they're using Linux or Windows servers* Shows readers step by step how to create several Web sites that share common themes, enabling readers to use these examples in real-world projects* Invaluable reading for even the experienced programmer whose current site has outgrown the traditional static structure and who is looking for a way to upgrade to a more efficient, user-f

Integration of event streaming and microservices with Apache Kafka

OpenAIRE

Kljun, Matija

2017-01-01

Over the last decade, the microservice architecture has become a standard for big and successful internet companies, like Netflix, Amazon and LinkedIn. The importance of stream processing, aggregation and exchange of data is growing, as it allows companies to compete better and move faster. In this diploma, we have analyzed the interactions between microservices, described the streaming platform and ordinary message queues. We have described the Apache Kafka platform and how...

Negative pressure wound treatment improves Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score in mediastinitis allowing a successful elective pectoralis muscle flap closure: six-year experience of a single protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Salica, Andrea; Weltert, Luca; Scaffa, Raffaele; Guerrieri Wolf, Lorenzo; Nardella, Saverio; Bellisario, Alessandro; De Paulis, Ruggero

2014-11-01

Optimal management of poststernotomy mediastinitis is controversial. Negative pressure wound treatment improves wound environment and sternal stability with low surgical invasiveness. Our protocol was based on negative pressure followed by delayed surgical closure. The aim of this study was to provide the results at early follow-up and to identify the risk factors for adverse outcome. In 5400 cardiac procedures, 44 consecutive patients with mediastinitis were enrolled in the study. Mediastinitis treatment was based on urgent debridement and negative pressure as the first-line approach. After wound sterilization, chest closure was achieved by elective pectoralis muscle advancement flap. Each patient's hospital data were collected prospectively. Variables included patient demographics and clinical and biological data. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score was calculated at the time of diagnosis and 48 hours after debridement. Focus outcome measures were mediastinitis-related death and need for reintervention after pectoralis muscle closure. El Oakley type I and type IIIA mediastinitis were the most frequent types (63.6%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was present in 25 patients (56.8%). Mean APACHE II score was 19.4±4 at the time of diagnosis, and 30 patients (68.2%) required intensive care unit transfer before surgical debridement. APACHE II score improved 48 hours after wound debridement and negative pressure application (mean value, 19.4±4 vs 7.2±2; P=.005) independently of any other variables included in the study. One patient in septic shock at the time of diagnosis died (2.2%). Negative pressure promotes a significant improvement in clinical status according to APACHE II score and allows a successful elective surgical closure. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of PANC3 score in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avreen Singh Shah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is inflammatory process of the pancreas associated with local and systemic complications. At present, there are lots of scores (such as Ransons, APACHE II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis that help us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming or require complex calculation and are costly. Material and Methods: PANC3 Scoring System is one of the better systems because the three criteria used (hematocrit, body mass index, and pleural effusion are simple, easy to assess, readily available, and economic. In this prospective study, 100 cases were evaluated to see the prospects of PANC3 scoring in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis as decided by modified Marshals score. Results: The results showed that PANC3 score had a 96.43% specificity, 75% sensitivity, 80% positive predictive value, and 95.29% negative predictive value. Conclusion: Hence, the PANC3 score is a cost-effective, promising score that helps in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis leading to prompt treatment and early referral to higher center.

Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

2011-01-01

Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

Increased Resistin Levels in Intra-abdominal Sepsis: Correlation with proinflammatory cytokines & Acute Physiology & Chronic Health Evaluation II scores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tonguç U. Yilmaz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Resistin, a hormone secreted from adipocytes and considered to be a likely cause of insulin resistance, has recently been accepted as a proinflammatory cytokine. This study aimed to determine the correlation between resistin levels in patients with intra-abdominal sepsis and mortality. Methods: Of 45 patients with intraabdominal sepsis, a total of 35 adult patients were included in the study. This study was undertaken from December 2011 to December 2012 and included patients who had no history of diabetes mellitus and who were admitted to the general surgery intensive care units of Gazi University and Bülent Ecevit University School of Medicine, Turkey. Evaluations were performed on 12 patients with sepsis, 10 patients with severe sepsis, 13 patients with septic shock and 15 healthy controls. The patients’ plasma resistin, interleukin-6 (IL-6, tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α, interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β, procalcitonin, lactate and glucose levels and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were studied daily for the first five days after admission. A correlation analysis of serum resistin levels with cytokine levels and APACHE II scores was performed. Results: Serum resistin levels in patients with sepsis were significantly higher than in the healthy controls (P <0.001. A significant correlation was found between serum resistin levels and APACHE II scores, serum IL-6, IL-1β, TNF-α, procalcitonin, lactate and glucose levels. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between serum resistin levels and all-cause mortality (P = 0.02. Conclusion: The levels of resistin were significantly positively correlated with the severity of disease and were a possible mediator of a prolonged inflammatory state in patients with intra-abdominal sepsis.

Is 'gut feeling' by medical staff better than validated scores in estimation of mortality in a medical intensive care unit? - The prospective FEELING-ON-ICU study.

Science.gov (United States)

Radtke, Anne; Pfister, Roman; Kuhr, Kathrin; Kochanek, Matthias; Michels, Guido

2017-10-01

The aim of the FEELING-ON-ICU study was to compare mortality estimations of critically ill patients based on 'gut feeling' of medical staff and by Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Medical staff estimated patients' mortality risks via questionnaires. APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated retrospectively from records. Estimations were compared with actual in-hospital mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). 66 critically ill patients (60.6% male, mean age 63±15years (range 30-86)) were evaluated each by a nurse (n=66, male 32.4%) and a physician (n=66, male 67.6%). 15 (22.7%) patients died on the intensive care unit. AUC was largest for estimations by physicians (AUC 0.814 (95% CI 0.705-0.923)), followed by SOFA (AUC 0.749 (95% CI 0.629-0.868)), SAPS II (AUC 0.723 (95% CI 0.597-0.849)), APACHE II (AUC 0.721 (95% CI 0.595-0.847)) and nursing staff (AUC 0.669 (95% CI 0.529-0.810)) (p<0.05 for all results). The concept of physicians' 'gut feeling' was comparable to classical objective scores in mortality estimations of critically ill patients. Concerning practicability physicians' evaluations were advantageous to complex score calculation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Severity scores in trauma patients admitted to ICU. Physiological and anatomic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Serviá, L; Badia, M; Montserrat, N; Trujillano, J

2018-02-02

The goals of this project were to compare both the anatomic and physiologic severity scores in trauma patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), and to elaborate mixed statistical models to improve the precision of the scores. A prospective study of cohorts. The combined medical/surgical ICU in a secondary university hospital. Seven hundred and eighty trauma patients admitted to ICU older than 16 years of age. Anatomic models (ISS and NISS) were compared and combined with physiological models (T-RTS, APACHE II [APII], and MPM II). The probability of death was calculated following the TRISS method. The discrimination was assessed using ROC curves (ABC [CI 95%]), and the calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshoẃs H test. The mixed models were elaborated with the tree classification method type Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection. A 14% global mortality was recorded. The physiological models presented the best discrimination values (APII of 0.87 [0.84-0.90]). All models were affected by bad calibration (P<.01). The best mixed model resulted from the combination of APII and ISS (0.88 [0.83-0.90]). This model was able to differentiate between a 7.5% mortality for elderly patients with pathological antecedents and a 25% mortality in patients presenting traumatic brain injury, from a pool of patients with APII values ranging from 10 to 17 and an ISS threshold of 22. The physiological models perform better than the anatomical models in traumatic patients admitted to the ICU. Patients with low scores in the physiological models require an anatomic analysis of the injuries to determine their severity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

San Carlos Apache Tribe - Energy Organizational Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rapp, James; Albert, Steve

2012-04-01

The San Carlos Apache Tribe (SCAT) was awarded $164,000 in late-2011 by the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Tribal Energy Program's "First Steps Toward Developing Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency on Tribal Lands" Grant Program. This grant funded:  The analysis and selection of preferred form(s) of tribal energy organization (this Energy Organization Analysis, hereinafter referred to as "EOA").  Start-up staffing and other costs associated with the Phase 1 SCAT energy organization.  An intern program.  Staff training.  Tribal outreach and workshops regarding the new organization and SCAT energy programs and projects, including two annual tribal energy summits (2011 and 2012). This report documents the analysis and selection of preferred form(s) of a tribal energy organization.

CMS Analysis and Data Reduction with Apache Spark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutsche, Oliver [Fermilab; Canali, Luca [CERN; Cremer, Illia [Magnetic Corp., Waltham; Cremonesi, Matteo [Fermilab; Elmer, Peter [Princeton U.; Fisk, Ian [Flatiron Inst., New York; Girone, Maria [CERN; Jayatilaka, Bo [Fermilab; Kowalkowski, Jim [Fermilab; Khristenko, Viktor [CERN; Motesnitsalis, Evangelos [CERN; Pivarski, Jim [Princeton U.; Sehrish, Saba [Fermilab; Surdy, Kacper [CERN; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey [Princeton U.

2017-10-31

Experimental Particle Physics has been at the forefront of analyzing the world's largest datasets for decades. The HEP community was among the first to develop suitable software and computing tools for this task. In recent times, new toolkits and systems for distributed data processing, collectively called "Big Data" technologies have emerged from industry and open source projects to support the analysis of Petabyte and Exabyte datasets in industry. While the principles of data analysis in HEP have not changed (filtering and transforming experiment-specific data formats), these new technologies use different approaches and tools, promising a fresh look at analysis of very large datasets that could potentially reduce the time-to-physics with increased interactivity. Moreover these new tools are typically actively developed by large communities, often profiting of industry resources, and under open source licensing. These factors result in a boost for adoption and maturity of the tools and for the communities supporting them, at the same time helping in reducing the cost of ownership for the end-users. In this talk, we are presenting studies of using Apache Spark for end user data analysis. We are studying the HEP analysis workflow separated into two thrusts: the reduction of centrally produced experiment datasets and the end-analysis up to the publication plot. Studying the first thrust, CMS is working together with CERN openlab and Intel on the CMS Big Data Reduction Facility. The goal is to reduce 1 PB of official CMS data to 1 TB of ntuple output for analysis. We are presenting the progress of this 2-year project with first results of scaling up Spark-based HEP analysis. Studying the second thrust, we are presenting studies on using Apache Spark for a CMS Dark Matter physics search, comparing Spark's feasibility, usability and performance to the ROOT-based analysis.

LHCbDIRAC as Apache Mesos microservices

CERN Multimedia

Couturier, Ben

2016-01-01

The LHCb experiment relies on LHCbDIRAC, an extension of DIRAC, to drive its offline computing. This middleware provides a development framework and a complete set of components for building distributed computing systems. These components are currently installed and ran on virtual machines (VM) or bare metal hardware. Due to the increased load of work, high availability is becoming more and more important for the LHCbDIRAC services, and the current installation model is showing its limitations. Apache Mesos is a cluster manager which aims at abstracting heterogeneous physical resources on which various tasks can be distributed thanks to so called "framework". The Marathon framework is suitable for long running tasks such as the DIRAC services, while the Chronos framework meets the needs of cron-like tasks like the DIRAC agents. A combination of the service discovery tool Consul together with HAProxy allows to expose the running containers to the outside world while hiding their dynamic placements. Such an arc...

Spatial correlations of Diceroprocta apache and its host plants: Evidence for a negative impact from Tamarix invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, A.R.; Andersen, D.C.

2002-01-01

1. The hypothesis that the habitat-scale spatial distribution of the Apache cicada Diceroprocta apache Davis is unaffected by the presence of the invasive exotic saltcedar Tamarix ramosissima was tested using data from 205 1-m2 quadrats placed within the flood-plain of the Bill Williams River, Arizona, U.S.A. Spatial dependencies within and between cicada density and habitat variables were estimated using Moran's I and its bivariate analogue to discern patterns and associations at spatial scales from 1 to 30 m.2. Apache cicadas were spatially aggregated in high-density clusters averaging 3 m in diameter. A positive association between cicada density, estimated by exuvial density, and the per cent canopy cover of a native tree, Goodding's willow Salix gooddingii, was detected in a non-spatial correlation analysis. No non-spatial association between cicada density and saltcedar canopy cover was detected.3. Tests for spatial cross-correlation using the bivariate IYZ indicated the presence of a broad-scale negative association between cicada density and saltcedar canopy cover. This result suggests that large continuous stands of saltcedar are associated with reduced cicada density. In contrast, positive associations detected at spatial scales larger than individual quadrats suggested a spill-over of high cicada density from areas featuring Goodding's willow canopy into surrounding saltcedar monoculture.4. Taken together and considered in light of the Apache cicada's polyphagous habits, the observed spatial patterns suggest that broad-scale factors such as canopy heterogeneity affect cicada habitat use more than host plant selection. This has implications for management of lower Colorado River riparian woodlands to promote cicada presence and density through maintenance or creation of stands of native trees as well as manipulation of the characteristically dense and homogeneous saltcedar canopies.

Efficient Streaming Mass Spatio-Temporal Vehicle Data Access in Urban Sensor Networks Based on Apache Storm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lianjie; Chen, Nengcheng; Chen, Zeqiang

2017-04-10

The efficient data access of streaming vehicle data is the foundation of analyzing, using and mining vehicle data in smart cities, which is an approach to understand traffic environments. However, the number of vehicles in urban cities has grown rapidly, reaching hundreds of thousands in number. Accessing the mass streaming data of vehicles is hard and takes a long time due to limited computation capability and backward modes. We propose an efficient streaming spatio-temporal data access based on Apache Storm (ESDAS) to achieve real-time streaming data access and data cleaning. As a popular streaming data processing tool, Apache Storm can be applied to streaming mass data access and real time data cleaning. By designing the Spout/bolt workflow of topology in ESDAS and by developing the speeding bolt and other bolts, Apache Storm can achieve the prospective aim. In our experiments, Taiyuan BeiDou bus location data is selected as the mass spatio-temporal data source. In the experiments, the data access results with different bolts are shown in map form, and the filtered buses' aggregation forms are different. In terms of performance evaluation, the consumption time in ESDAS for ten thousand records per second for a speeding bolt is approximately 300 milliseconds, and that for MongoDB is approximately 1300 milliseconds. The efficiency of ESDAS is approximately three times higher than that of MongoDB.

Efficient Streaming Mass Spatio-Temporal Vehicle Data Access in Urban Sensor Networks Based on Apache Storm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lianjie Zhou

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The efficient data access of streaming vehicle data is the foundation of analyzing, using and mining vehicle data in smart cities, which is an approach to understand traffic environments. However, the number of vehicles in urban cities has grown rapidly, reaching hundreds of thousands in number. Accessing the mass streaming data of vehicles is hard and takes a long time due to limited computation capability and backward modes. We propose an efficient streaming spatio-temporal data access based on Apache Storm (ESDAS to achieve real-time streaming data access and data cleaning. As a popular streaming data processing tool, Apache Storm can be applied to streaming mass data access and real time data cleaning. By designing the Spout/bolt workflow of topology in ESDAS and by developing the speeding bolt and other bolts, Apache Storm can achieve the prospective aim. In our experiments, Taiyuan BeiDou bus location data is selected as the mass spatio-temporal data source. In the experiments, the data access results with different bolts are shown in map form, and the filtered buses’ aggregation forms are different. In terms of performance evaluation, the consumption time in ESDAS for ten thousand records per second for a speeding bolt is approximately 300 milliseconds, and that for MongoDB is approximately 1300 milliseconds. The efficiency of ESDAS is approximately three times higher than that of MongoDB.

Evaluation of Apache Hadoop for parallel data analysis with ROOT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehrack, S; Duckeck, G; Ebke, J

2014-01-01

The Apache Hadoop software is a Java based framework for distributed processing of large data sets across clusters of computers, using the Hadoop file system (HDFS) for data storage and backup and MapReduce as a processing platform. Hadoop is primarily designed for processing large textual data sets which can be processed in arbitrary chunks, and must be adapted to the use case of processing binary data files which cannot be split automatically. However, Hadoop offers attractive features in terms of fault tolerance, task supervision and control, multi-user functionality and job management. For this reason, we evaluated Apache Hadoop as an alternative approach to PROOF for ROOT data analysis. Two alternatives in distributing analysis data were discussed: either the data was stored in HDFS and processed with MapReduce, or the data was accessed via a standard Grid storage system (dCache Tier-2) and MapReduce was used only as execution back-end. The focus in the measurements were on the one hand to safely store analysis data on HDFS with reasonable data rates and on the other hand to process data fast and reliably with MapReduce. In the evaluation of the HDFS, read/write data rates from local Hadoop cluster have been measured and compared to standard data rates from the local NFS installation. In the evaluation of MapReduce, realistic ROOT analyses have been used and event rates have been compared to PROOF.

Evaluation of Apache Hadoop for parallel data analysis with ROOT

Science.gov (United States)

Lehrack, S.; Duckeck, G.; Ebke, J.

2014-06-01

The Apache Hadoop software is a Java based framework for distributed processing of large data sets across clusters of computers, using the Hadoop file system (HDFS) for data storage and backup and MapReduce as a processing platform. Hadoop is primarily designed for processing large textual data sets which can be processed in arbitrary chunks, and must be adapted to the use case of processing binary data files which cannot be split automatically. However, Hadoop offers attractive features in terms of fault tolerance, task supervision and control, multi-user functionality and job management. For this reason, we evaluated Apache Hadoop as an alternative approach to PROOF for ROOT data analysis. Two alternatives in distributing analysis data were discussed: either the data was stored in HDFS and processed with MapReduce, or the data was accessed via a standard Grid storage system (dCache Tier-2) and MapReduce was used only as execution back-end. The focus in the measurements were on the one hand to safely store analysis data on HDFS with reasonable data rates and on the other hand to process data fast and reliably with MapReduce. In the evaluation of the HDFS, read/write data rates from local Hadoop cluster have been measured and compared to standard data rates from the local NFS installation. In the evaluation of MapReduce, realistic ROOT analyses have been used and event rates have been compared to PROOF.

Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning: A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Juanchich

2013-05-01

Full Text Available In most previous studies of verbal probabilities, participants are asked to translate expressions such as possible and not certain into numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which-outcome (WO approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has revealed that, when given bell-shaped distributions of quantitative outcomes, people tend to associate certainty with minimum (unlikely outcome magnitudes and possibility with (unlikely maximal ones. The purpose of the present paper is to test the factors that foster these effects and the conditions in which they apply. Experiment 1 showed that the association of probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will last at least..., it is possible that the battery will last up to.... Further, we tested whether this pattern was dependent on the frequency (e.g., increasing vs. decreasing distribution or the nature of the outcomes presented (i.e., categorical vs. continuous. Results showed that despite being slightly affected by the shape of the distribution, participants continue to prefer to associate possible with maximum outcomes and certain with minimum outcomes. The final experiment provided a boundary condition to the effect, showing that it applies to verbal but not numerical probabilities.

WebScore: An Effective Page Scoring Approach for Uncertain Web Social Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaojie Qiao

2011-10-01

Full Text Available To effectively score pages with uncertainty in web social networks, we first proposed a new concept called transition probability matrix and formally defined the uncertainty in web social networks. Second, we proposed a hybrid page scoring algorithm, called WebScore, based on the PageRank algorithm and three centrality measures including degree, betweenness, and closeness. Particularly,WebScore takes into a full consideration of the uncertainty of web social networks by computing the transition probability from one page to another. The basic idea ofWebScore is to: (1 integrate uncertainty into PageRank in order to accurately rank pages, and (2 apply the centrality measures to calculate the importance of pages in web social networks. In order to verify the performance of WebScore, we developed a web social network analysis system which can partition web pages into distinct groups and score them in an effective fashion. Finally, we conducted extensive experiments on real data and the results show that WebScore is effective at scoring uncertain pages with less time deficiency than PageRank and centrality measures based page scoring algorithms.

77 FR 18997 - Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-29

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger District, Coconino County, AZ AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of intent to prepare an environmental impact statement. SUMMARY: The U.S. Forest Service (FS) will...

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

75 FR 14419 - Camp Tatiyee Land Exchange on the Lakeside Ranger District of the Apache-Sitgreaves National...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-25

... Ranger, Lakeside Ranger District, Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, c/o TEC Inc., 514 Via de la Valle... to other papers serving areas affected by this proposal: Tucson Citizen, Sierra Vista Herald, Nogales...

Overview of the SDSS-IV MaNGA Survey: Mapping nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bundy, Kevin; Bershady, Matthew A.; Law, David R.; Yan, Renbin; Drory, Niv; MacDonald, Nicholas; Wake, David A.; Cherinka, Brian; Sánchez-Gallego, José R.; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Thomas, Daniel; Tremonti, Christy; Masters, Karen; Coccato, Lodovico; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M.; Aragón-Salamanca, Alfonso; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Badenes, Carles; Falcón-Barroso, Jésus; Belfiore, Francesco; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Blanc, Guillermo A.; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Blanton, Michael R.; Brownstein, Joel R.; Byler, Nell; Cappellari, Michele; Conroy, Charlie; Dutton, Aaron A.; Emsellem, Eric; Etherington, James; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Fu, Hai; Gunn, James E.; Harding, Paul; Johnston, Evelyn J.; Kauffmann, Guinevere; Kinemuchi, Karen; Klaene, Mark A.; Knapen, Johan H.; Leauthaud, Alexie; Li, Cheng; Lin, Lihwai; Maiolino, Roberto; Malanushenko, Viktor; Malanushenko, Elena; Mao, Shude; Maraston, Claudia; McDermid, Richard M.; Merrifield, Michael R.; Nichol, Robert C.; Oravetz, Daniel; Pan, Kaike; Parejko, John K.; Sanchez, Sebastian F.; Schlegel, David; Simmons, Audrey; Steele, Oliver; Steinmetz, Matthias; Thanjavur, Karun; Thompson, Benjamin A.; Tinker, Jeremy L.; van den Bosch, Remco C. E.; Westfall, Kyle B.; Wilkinson, David; Wright, Shelley; Xiao, Ting; Zhang, Kai

We present an overview of a new integral field spectroscopic survey called MaNGA (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory), one of three core programs in the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) that began on 2014 July 1. MaNGA will investigate the internal kinematic

Analysis of oil-bearing Cretaceous sandstone hydrocarbon reservoirs, exclusive of the Dakota Sandstone, on the Jicarilla Apache Indian Reservation, New Mexico; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ridgley, Jennie; Wright Dunbar, Robyn

2000-01-01

This is the Phase One contract report to the United States Department of Energy, United State Geological Survey and the Jicarilla Apache Indian Tribe on the project entitled''Outcrop Analysis of the Cretaceous Mesaverde Group: Jicarilla Apache Reservation, New Mexico.'' Field work for this project was conducted during July and August 1998, at which time fourteen measured sections were described and correlated on or adjacent to Jicarilla Apache Reservation lands. A fifteen section, described east of the main field area, is included in this report, although its distant location precluded use in the correlation's and cross-sections presented herein. Ground-based photo mosaics were shot for much of the exposed Mesaverde outcrop belt and were used to assist in correlation. Outcrop gamma-ray surveys at six of the fifteen measured sections using a GAD-6 scintillometer was conducted. The raw gamma-ray data are included in this report, however, analysis of those data is part of the ongoing Phase Two of this project

The APACHE survey hardware and software design: Tools for an automatic search of small-size transiting exoplanets

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Lattanzi M.G.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Small-size ground-based telescopes can effectively be used to look for transiting rocky planets around nearby low-mass M stars using the photometric transit method, as recently demonstrated for example by the MEarth project. Since 2008 at the Astronomical Observatory of the Autonomous Region of Aosta Valley (OAVdA, we have been preparing for the long-term photometric survey APACHE, aimed at finding transiting small-size planets around thousands of nearby early and mid-M dwarfs. APACHE (A PAthway toward the Characterization of Habitable Earths is designed to use an array of five dedicated and identical 40-cm Ritchey-Chretien telescopes and its observations started at the beginning of summer 2012. The main characteristics of the survey final set up and the preliminary results from the first weeks of observations will be discussed.

Sideloading - Ingestion of Large Point Clouds Into the Apache Spark Big Data Engine

Science.gov (United States)

Boehm, J.; Liu, K.; Alis, C.

2016-06-01

In the geospatial domain we have now reached the point where data volumes we handle have clearly grown beyond the capacity of most desktop computers. This is particularly true in the area of point cloud processing. It is therefore naturally lucrative to explore established big data frameworks for big geospatial data. The very first hurdle is the import of geospatial data into big data frameworks, commonly referred to as data ingestion. Geospatial data is typically encoded in specialised binary file formats, which are not naturally supported by the existing big data frameworks. Instead such file formats are supported by software libraries that are restricted to single CPU execution. We present an approach that allows the use of existing point cloud file format libraries on the Apache Spark big data framework. We demonstrate the ingestion of large volumes of point cloud data into a compute cluster. The approach uses a map function to distribute the data ingestion across the nodes of a cluster. We test the capabilities of the proposed method to load billions of points into a commodity hardware compute cluster and we discuss the implications on scalability and performance. The performance is benchmarked against an existing native Apache Spark data import implementation.

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

The lod score method.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, J P; Saccone, N L; Corbett, J

2001-01-01

The lod score method originated in a seminal article by Newton Morton in 1955. The method is broadly concerned with issues of power and the posterior probability of linkage, ensuring that a reported linkage has a high probability of being a true linkage. In addition, the method is sequential, so that pedigrees or lod curves may be combined from published reports to pool data for analysis. This approach has been remarkably successful for 50 years in identifying disease genes for Mendelian disorders. After discussing these issues, we consider the situation for complex disorders, where the maximum lod score (MLS) statistic shares some of the advantages of the traditional lod score approach but is limited by unknown power and the lack of sharing of the primary data needed to optimally combine analytic results. We may still learn from the lod score method as we explore new methods in molecular biology and genetic analysis to utilize the complete human DNA sequence and the cataloging of all human genes.

Diet quality of Italian yogurt consumers: an application of the probability of adequate nutrient intake score (PANDiet).

Science.gov (United States)

Mistura, Lorenza; D'Addezio, Laura; Sette, Stefania; Piccinelli, Raffaela; Turrini, Aida

2016-01-01

The diet quality in yogurt consumers and non-consumers was evaluated by applying the probability of adequate nutrient intake (PANDiet) index to a sample of adults and elderly from the Italian food consumption survey INRAN SCAI 2005-06. Overall, yogurt consumers had a significantly higher mean intake of energy, calcium and percentage of energy from total sugars whereas the mean percentage of energy from total fat, saturated fatty acid and total carbohydrate were significantly (p yogurt consumers than in non-consumers, (60.58 ± 0.33 vs. 58.58 ± 0.19, p yogurt consumers. The items of calcium, potassium and riboflavin showed the major percentage variation between consumers and non-consumers. Yogurt consumers were more likely to have adequate intakes of vitamins and minerals, and a higher quality score of the diet.

Pre-test probability risk scores and their use in contemporary management of patients with chest pain: One year stress echo cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Demarco, Daniela Cassar; Papachristidis, Alexandros; Roper, Damian; Tsironis, Ioannis; Byrne, Jonathan; Monaghan, Mark

2015-01-01

Objectives To compare how patients with chest pain would be investigated, based on the two guidelines available for UK cardiologists, on the management of patients with stable chest pain. The UK National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guideline which was published in 2010 and the European society of cardiology (ESC) guideline published in 2013. Both guidelines utilise pre-test probability risk scores, to guide the choice of investigation. Design We undertook a large retrospective study to investigate the outcomes of stress echocardiography. Setting A large tertiary centre in the UK in a contemporary clinical practice. Participants Two thirds of the patients in the cohort were referred from our rapid access chest pain clinics. Results We found that the NICE risk score overestimates risk by 20% compared to the ESC Risk score. We also found that based on the NICE guidelines, 44% of the patients presenting with chest pain, in this cohort, would have been investigated invasively, with diagnostic coronary angiography. Using the ESC guidelines, only 0.3% of the patients would be investigated invasively. Conclusion The large discrepancy between the two guidelines can be easily reduced if NICE adopted the ESC risk score. PMID:26673458

SIDELOADING – INGESTION OF LARGE POINT CLOUDS INTO THE APACHE SPARK BIG DATA ENGINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Boehm

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the geospatial domain we have now reached the point where data volumes we handle have clearly grown beyond the capacity of most desktop computers. This is particularly true in the area of point cloud processing. It is therefore naturally lucrative to explore established big data frameworks for big geospatial data. The very first hurdle is the import of geospatial data into big data frameworks, commonly referred to as data ingestion. Geospatial data is typically encoded in specialised binary file formats, which are not naturally supported by the existing big data frameworks. Instead such file formats are supported by software libraries that are restricted to single CPU execution. We present an approach that allows the use of existing point cloud file format libraries on the Apache Spark big data framework. We demonstrate the ingestion of large volumes of point cloud data into a compute cluster. The approach uses a map function to distribute the data ingestion across the nodes of a cluster. We test the capabilities of the proposed method to load billions of points into a commodity hardware compute cluster and we discuss the implications on scalability and performance. The performance is benchmarked against an existing native Apache Spark data import implementation.

Extension of the lod score: the mod score.

Science.gov (United States)

Clerget-Darpoux, F

2001-01-01

In 1955 Morton proposed the lod score method both for testing linkage between loci and for estimating the recombination fraction between them. If a disease is controlled by a gene at one of these loci, the lod score computation requires the prior specification of an underlying model that assigns the probabilities of genotypes from the observed phenotypes. To address the case of linkage studies for diseases with unknown mode of inheritance, we suggested (Clerget-Darpoux et al., 1986) extending the lod score function to a so-called mod score function. In this function, the variables are both the recombination fraction and the disease model parameters. Maximizing the mod score function over all these parameters amounts to maximizing the probability of marker data conditional on the disease status. Under the absence of linkage, the mod score conforms to a chi-square distribution, with extra degrees of freedom in comparison to the lod score function (MacLean et al., 1993). The mod score is asymptotically maximum for the true disease model (Clerget-Darpoux and Bonaïti-Pellié, 1992; Hodge and Elston, 1994). Consequently, the power to detect linkage through mod score will be highest when the space of models where the maximization is performed includes the true model. On the other hand, one must avoid overparametrization of the model space. For example, when the approach is applied to affected sibpairs, only two constrained disease model parameters should be used (Knapp et al., 1994) for the mod score maximization. It is also important to emphasize the existence of a strong correlation between the disease gene location and the disease model. Consequently, there is poor resolution of the location of the susceptibility locus when the disease model at this locus is unknown. Of course, this is true regardless of the statistics used. The mod score may also be applied in a candidate gene strategy to model the potential effect of this gene in the disease. Since, however, it

The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an effective triage marker following staggered paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose.

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, D G; Zafar, S; Reid, T W D J; Martin, K G; Davidson, J S; Hayes, P C; Simpson, K J

2012-06-01

The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an effective triage marker following single time point paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose, but has not been evaluated following staggered (multiple supratherapeutic doses over >8 h, resulting in cumulative dose of >4 g/day) overdoses. To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the SOFA score following staggered paracetamol overdose. Time-course analysis of 50 staggered paracetamol overdoses admitted to a tertiary liver centre. Individual timed laboratory samples were correlated with corresponding clinical parameters and the daily SOFA scores were calculated. A total of 39/50 (78%) patients developed hepatic encephalopathy. The area under the SOFA receiver operator characteristic for death/liver transplantation was 87.4 (95% CI 73.2-95.7), 94.3 (95% CI 82.5-99.1), and 98.4 (95% CI 84.3-100.0) at 0, 24 and 48 h, respectively, postadmission. A SOFA score of paracetamol overdose, is associated with a good prognosis. Both the SOFA and APACHE II scores could improve triage of high-risk staggered paracetamol overdose patients. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.

Science.gov (United States)

Hampshire, Peter A; Welch, Catherine A; McCrossan, Lawrence A; Francis, Katharine; Harrison, David A

2009-01-01

Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Introduction Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. Methods A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). Results There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC

Retrospective study on prognostic importance of serum procalcitonin and amino - terminal pro - brain natriuretic peptide levels as compared to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Score on Intensive Care Unit admission, in a mixed Intensive Care Unit population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chitra Mehta

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Timely decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU is very essential to improve the outcome of critically sick patients. Conventional scores like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV are quite cumbersome with calculations and take minimum 24 hours. Procalcitonin has shown to have prognostic value in ICU/Emergency department (ED in disease states like pneumonia, sepsis etc. NTproBNP has demonstrated excellent diagnostic and prognostic importance in cardiac diseases. It has also been found elevated in non-cardiac diseases. We chose to study the prognostic utility of these markers on ICU admission. Settings and Design: Retrospective observational study. Materials and Methods: A Retrospective analysis of 100 eligible patients was done who had undergone PCT and NTproBNP measurements on ICU admission. Their correlations with all cause mortality, length of hospital stay, need for ventilator support, need for vasopressors were performed. Results: Among 100 randomly selected ICU patients, 28 were non-survivors. NTproBNP values on admission significantly correlated with all cause mortality (P = 0.036, AUC = 0.643 and morbidity (P = 0.000, AUC = 0.763, comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. PCT values on admission did not show significant association with mortality, but correlated well with morbidity and prolonged hospital length of stay (AUC = 0.616, P = 0.045. Conclusion: The current study demonstrated a good predictive value of NTproBNP, in terms of mortality and morbidity comparable to that of APACHE-IV score. Procalcitonin, however, was found to have doubtful prognostic importance. These findings need to be confirmed in a prospective larger study.

A configuration space of homologous proteins conserving mutual information and allowing a phylogeny inference based on pair-wise Z-score probabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Bastien, Olivier; Ortet, Philippe; Roy, Sylvaine; Maréchal, Eric

2005-03-10

Popular methods to reconstruct molecular phylogenies are based on multiple sequence alignments, in which addition or removal of data may change the resulting tree topology. We have sought a representation of homologous proteins that would conserve the information of pair-wise sequence alignments, respect probabilistic properties of Z-scores (Monte Carlo methods applied to pair-wise comparisons) and be the basis for a novel method of consistent and stable phylogenetic reconstruction. We have built up a spatial representation of protein sequences using concepts from particle physics (configuration space) and respecting a frame of constraints deduced from pair-wise alignment score properties in information theory. The obtained configuration space of homologous proteins (CSHP) allows the representation of real and shuffled sequences, and thereupon an expression of the TULIP theorem for Z-score probabilities. Based on the CSHP, we propose a phylogeny reconstruction using Z-scores. Deduced trees, called TULIP trees, are consistent with multiple-alignment based trees. Furthermore, the TULIP tree reconstruction method provides a solution for some previously reported incongruent results, such as the apicomplexan enolase phylogeny. The CSHP is a unified model that conserves mutual information between proteins in the way physical models conserve energy. Applications include the reconstruction of evolutionary consistent and robust trees, the topology of which is based on a spatial representation that is not reordered after addition or removal of sequences. The CSHP and its assigned phylogenetic topology, provide a powerful and easily updated representation for massive pair-wise genome comparisons based on Z-score computations.

A configuration space of homologous proteins conserving mutual information and allowing a phylogeny inference based on pair-wise Z-score probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maréchal Eric

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Popular methods to reconstruct molecular phylogenies are based on multiple sequence alignments, in which addition or removal of data may change the resulting tree topology. We have sought a representation of homologous proteins that would conserve the information of pair-wise sequence alignments, respect probabilistic properties of Z-scores (Monte Carlo methods applied to pair-wise comparisons and be the basis for a novel method of consistent and stable phylogenetic reconstruction. Results We have built up a spatial representation of protein sequences using concepts from particle physics (configuration space and respecting a frame of constraints deduced from pair-wise alignment score properties in information theory. The obtained configuration space of homologous proteins (CSHP allows the representation of real and shuffled sequences, and thereupon an expression of the TULIP theorem for Z-score probabilities. Based on the CSHP, we propose a phylogeny reconstruction using Z-scores. Deduced trees, called TULIP trees, are consistent with multiple-alignment based trees. Furthermore, the TULIP tree reconstruction method provides a solution for some previously reported incongruent results, such as the apicomplexan enolase phylogeny. Conclusion The CSHP is a unified model that conserves mutual information between proteins in the way physical models conserve energy. Applications include the reconstruction of evolutionary consistent and robust trees, the topology of which is based on a spatial representation that is not reordered after addition or removal of sequences. The CSHP and its assigned phylogenetic topology, provide a powerful and easily updated representation for massive pair-wise genome comparisons based on Z-score computations.

Significance of blood pressure variability in patients with sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Nishant Raj; Bian, Yu-Yao; Shou, Song-Tao

2014-01-01

This study was undertaken to observe the characteristics of blood pressure variability (BPV) and sepsis and to investigate changes in blood pressure and its value on the severity of illness in patients with sepsis. Blood parameters, APACHE II score, and 24-hour ambulatory BP were analyzed in 89 patients with sepsis. In patients with APACHE II score>19, the values of systolic blood pressure (SBPV), diasystolic blood pressure (DBPV), non-dipper percentage, cortisol (COR), lactate (LAC), platelet count (PLT) and glucose (GLU) were significantly higher than in those with APACHE II score ≤19 (Pblood cell (WBC), creatinine (Cr), PaO2, C-reactive protein (CRP), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Correlation analysis showed that APACHE II scores correlated significantly with SBPV and DBPV (P0.05). Logistic regression analysis of SBPV, DBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was used to predict prognosis in terms of survival and non-survival rates. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that DBPV was a better predictor of survival rate with an AUC value of 0.890. However, AUC of SBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was 0.746, 0.831 and 0.915, respectively. The values of SBPV, DBPV and non-dipper percentage are higher in patients with sepsis. DBPV and SBPV can be used to predict the survival rate of patients with sepsis.

D-score: a search engine independent MD-score.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaudel, Marc; Breiter, Daniela; Beck, Florian; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Martens, Lennart; Zahedi, René P

2013-03-01

While peptides carrying PTMs are routinely identified in gel-free MS, the localization of the PTMs onto the peptide sequences remains challenging. Search engine scores of secondary peptide matches have been used in different approaches in order to infer the quality of site inference, by penalizing the localization whenever the search engine similarly scored two candidate peptides with different site assignments. In the present work, we show how the estimation of posterior error probabilities for peptide candidates allows the estimation of a PTM score called the D-score, for multiple search engine studies. We demonstrate the applicability of this score to three popular search engines: Mascot, OMSSA, and X!Tandem, and evaluate its performance using an already published high resolution data set of synthetic phosphopeptides. For those peptides with phosphorylation site inference uncertainty, the number of spectrum matches with correctly localized phosphorylation increased by up to 25.7% when compared to using Mascot alone, although the actual increase depended on the fragmentation method used. Since this method relies only on search engine scores, it can be readily applied to the scoring of the localization of virtually any modification at no additional experimental or in silico cost. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

Quantification of type I error probabilities for heterogeneity LOD scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Abreu, Paula C; Hodge, Susan E; Greenberg, David A

2002-02-01

Locus heterogeneity is a major confounding factor in linkage analysis. When no prior knowledge of linkage exists, and one aims to detect linkage and heterogeneity simultaneously, classical distribution theory of log-likelihood ratios does not hold. Despite some theoretical work on this problem, no generally accepted practical guidelines exist. Nor has anyone rigorously examined the combined effect of testing for linkage and heterogeneity and simultaneously maximizing over two genetic models (dominant, recessive). The effect of linkage phase represents another uninvestigated issue. Using computer simulation, we investigated type I error (P value) of the "admixture" heterogeneity LOD (HLOD) score, i.e., the LOD score maximized over both recombination fraction theta and admixture parameter alpha and we compared this with the P values when one maximizes only with respect to theta (i.e., the standard LOD score). We generated datasets of phase-known and -unknown nuclear families, sizes k = 2, 4, and 6 children, under fully penetrant autosomal dominant inheritance. We analyzed these datasets (1) assuming a single genetic model, and maximizing the HLOD over theta and alpha; and (2) maximizing the HLOD additionally over two dominance models (dominant vs. recessive), then subtracting a 0.3 correction. For both (1) and (2), P values increased with family size k; rose less for phase-unknown families than for phase-known ones, with the former approaching the latter as k increased; and did not exceed the one-sided mixture distribution xi = (1/2) chi1(2) + (1/2) chi2(2). Thus, maximizing the HLOD over theta and alpha appears to add considerably less than an additional degree of freedom to the associated chi1(2) distribution. We conclude with practical guidelines for linkage investigators. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Uso do escore prognóstico APACHE II e ATN-ISS em insuficiência renal aguda tratada dentro e fora da unidade de terapia intensiva

OpenAIRE

Fernandes,Natáia Maria da Silva; Pinto,Patrícia dos Santos; Lacet,Thiago Bento de Paiva; Rodrigues,Dominique Fonseca; Bastos,Marcus Gomes; Stella,Sérgio Reinaldo; Cendoroglo Neto,Miguel

2009-01-01

INTRODUÇÃO: A insuficiência renal aguda (IRA) mantém alta prevalência, morbidade e mortalidade. OBJETIVO: Comparar o uso do escore prognóstico APACHE II com o ATN-ISS e determinar se o APACHE II pode ser utilizado para pacientes com IRA, fora da UTI. MÉTODOS: Coorte prospectiva, 205 pacientes com IRA. Analisamos dados demográficos, condições pré-existentes, falência de órgãos e características da IRA. Os escores prognósticos foram realizados no dia da avaliação do nefrologista. RESULTADOS: A ...

LHCbDIRAC as Apache Mesos microservices

Science.gov (United States)

Haen, Christophe; Couturier, Benjamin

2017-10-01

The LHCb experiment relies on LHCbDIRAC, an extension of DIRAC, to drive its offline computing. This middleware provides a development framework and a complete set of components for building distributed computing systems. These components are currently installed and run on virtual machines (VM) or bare metal hardware. Due to the increased workload, high availability is becoming more and more important for the LHCbDIRAC services, and the current installation model is showing its limitations. Apache Mesos is a cluster manager which aims at abstracting heterogeneous physical resources on which various tasks can be distributed thanks to so called “frameworks” The Marathon framework is suitable for long running tasks such as the DIRAC services, while the Chronos framework meets the needs of cron-like tasks like the DIRAC agents. A combination of the service discovery tool Consul together with HAProxy allows to expose the running containers to the outside world while hiding their dynamic placements. Such an architecture brings a greater flexibility in the deployment of LHCbDirac services, allowing for easier deployment maintenance and scaling of services on demand (e..g LHCbDirac relies on 138 services and 116 agents). Higher reliability is also easier, as clustering is part of the toolset, which allows constraints on the location of the services. This paper describes the investigations carried out to package the LHCbDIRAC and DIRAC components into Docker containers and orchestrate them using the previously described set of tools.

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

Lot 4 AH-64E Apache Attack Helicopter Follow-on Operational Test and Evaluation Report

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

engine is tested to determine its Engine Torque Factor ( ETF ) rating.6 To meet contract specifications, a new engine must have an ETF of 1.0. The...published AH-64E operator’s manual estimates performance based on engines with an ETF of 1.0, and pilots normally plan missions anticipating the 717...pound shortfall in hover performance at KPP conditions. The Apache Program Manager reports that new engines are delivered with an average ETF of

Developer Initiation and Social Interactions in OSS: A Case Study of the Apache Software Foundation

Science.gov (United States)

2014-08-01

pp. 201–215, 2003. 2. K. Crowston, K. Wei, J. Howison, and A. Wiggins, “Free/ libre open-source software devel- opment: What we know and what we do not...Understanding the process of participating in open source communities,” in International Workshop on Emerging Trends in Free/ Libre /Open Source Software ...Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Developer Initiation and Social Interactions in OSS: A Case Study of the Apache Software

Constructing Flexible, Configurable, ETL Pipelines for the Analysis of "Big Data" with Apache OODT

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Hart, A. F.; Mattmann, C. A.; Ramirez, P.; Verma, R.; Zimdars, P. A.; Park, S.; Estrada, A.; Sumarlidason, A.; Gil, Y.; Ratnakar, V.; Krum, D.; Phan, T.; Meena, A.

2013-12-01

A plethora of open source technologies for manipulating, transforming, querying, and visualizing 'big data' have blossomed and matured in the last few years, driven in large part by recognition of the tremendous value that can be derived by leveraging data mining and visualization techniques on large data sets. One facet of many of these tools is that input data must often be prepared into a particular format (e.g.: JSON, CSV), or loaded into a particular storage technology (e.g.: HDFS) before analysis can take place. This process, commonly known as Extract-Transform-Load, or ETL, often involves multiple well-defined steps that must be executed in a particular order, and the approach taken for a particular data set is generally sensitive to the quantity and quality of the input data, as well as the structure and complexity of the desired output. When working with very large, heterogeneous, unstructured or semi-structured data sets, automating the ETL process and monitoring its progress becomes increasingly important. Apache Object Oriented Data Technology (OODT) provides a suite of complementary data management components called the Process Control System (PCS) that can be connected together to form flexible ETL pipelines as well as browser-based user interfaces for monitoring and control of ongoing operations. The lightweight, metadata driven middleware layer can be wrapped around custom ETL workflow steps, which themselves can be implemented in any language. Once configured, it facilitates communication between workflow steps and supports execution of ETL pipelines across a distributed cluster of compute resources. As participants in a DARPA-funded effort to develop open source tools for large-scale data analysis, we utilized Apache OODT to rapidly construct custom ETL pipelines for a variety of very large data sets to prepare them for analysis and visualization applications. We feel that OODT, which is free and open source software available through the Apache

The probability and severity of decompression sickness

Science.gov (United States)

Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

2017-01-01

Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF) score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers.

Science.gov (United States)

Turney, Benjamin; Robertson, William; Wiseman, Oliver; Amaro, Carmen Regina P R; Leitão, Victor A; Silva, Isabela Leme da; Amaro, João Luiz

2014-01-01

The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation) changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers. Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment. At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77%) had a high PSF score (> 0.5). Of the 26 patients, 17 (65%) showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42%) changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5) to a low risk (PSF 0.5) during both assessments. The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Turney

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers. Materials and Methods Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment. Results At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77% had a high PSF score (> 0.5. Of the 26 patients, 17 (65% showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42% changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5 to a low risk (PSF 0.5 during both assessments. Conclusions The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

Enhancing organization and maintenance of big data with Apache Solr in IBM WebSphere Commerce deployments

OpenAIRE

Grigel, Rudolf

2015-01-01

The main objective of this thesis was to enhance the organization and maintenance of big data with Apache Solr in IBM WebSphere Commerce deployments. This objective can be split into several subtasks: reorganization of data, fast and optimised exporting and importing, efficient update and cleanup operations. E-Commerce is a fast growing and frequently changing environment. There is a constant flow of data that is rapidly growing larger and larger every day which is becoming an ...

How to calculate an MMSE score from a MODA score (and vice versa) in patients with Alzheimer's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Cazzaniga, R; Francescani, A; Saetti, C; Spinnler, H

2003-11-01

The aim of the present study was to provide a statistically sound way of reciprocally converting scores of the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and the Milan overall dementia assessment (MODA). A consecutive series of 182 patients with "probable" Alzheimer's disease patients was examined with both tests. MODA and MMSE scores proved to be highly correlated. A formula for converting MODA and MMSE scores was generated.

Outcrop Analysis of the Cretaceous Mesaverde Group: Jicarilla Apache Reservation, New Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ridgley, Jennie; Dunbar, Robin Wright

2001-04-24

Field work for this project was conducted during July and April 1998, at which time fourteen measured sections were described and correlated on or adjacent to Jicarilla Apache Reservation lands. A fifteenth section, described east of the main field area, is included in this report, although its distant location precluded use in the correlations and cross sections presented herein. Ground-based photo mosaics were shot for much of the exposed Mesaverde outcrop belt and were used to assist in correlation. Outcrop gamma-ray surveys at six of the fifteen measured sections using a GAD-6 scintillometer was conducted. The raw gamma-ray data are included in this report, however, analysis of those data is part of the ongoing Phase Two of this project.

AUDIT-C scores as a scaled marker of mean daily drinking, alcohol use disorder severity, and probability of alcohol dependence in a U.S. general population sample of drinkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinsky, Anna D; Dawson, Deborah A; Williams, Emily C; Kivlahan, Daniel R; Bradley, Katharine A

2013-08-01

Brief alcohol screening questionnaires are increasingly used to identify alcohol misuse in routine care, but clinicians also need to assess the level of consumption and the severity of misuse so that appropriate intervention can be offered. Information provided by a patient's alcohol screening score might provide a practical tool for assessing the level of consumption and severity of misuse. This post hoc analysis of data from the 2001 to 2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) included 26,546 U.S. adults who reported drinking in the past year and answered additional questions about their consumption, including Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption questionnaire (AUDIT-C) alcohol screening. Linear or logistic regression models and postestimation methods were used to estimate mean daily drinking, the number of endorsed alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria ("AUD severity"), and the probability of alcohol dependence associated with each individual AUDIT-C score (1 to 12), after testing for effect modification by gender and age. Among eligible past-year drinkers, mean daily drinking, AUD severity, and the probability of alcohol dependence increased exponentially across increasing AUDIT-C scores. Mean daily drinking ranged from alcohol dependence ranged from used to estimate patient-specific consumption and severity based on age, gender, and alcohol screening score. This information could be integrated into electronic decision support systems to help providers estimate and provide feedback about patient-specific risks and identify those patients most likely to benefit from further diagnostic assessment. Copyright © 2013 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Update on Astrometric Follow-Up at Apache Point Observatory by Adler Planetarium

Science.gov (United States)

Nault, Kristie A.; Brucker, Melissa; Hammergren, Mark

2016-10-01

We began our NEO astrometric follow-up and characterization program in 2014 Q4 using about 500 hours of observing time per year with the Astrophysical Research Consortium (ARC) 3.5m telescope at Apache Point Observatory (APO). Our observing is split into 2 hour blocks approximately every other night for astrometry (this poster) and several half-nights per month for spectroscopy (see poster by M. Hammergren et al.) and light curve studies.For astrometry, we use the ARC Telescope Imaging Camera (ARCTIC) with an SDSS r filter, in 2 hour observing blocks centered around midnight. ARCTIC has a magnitude limit of V~23 in 60s, and we target 20 NEOs per session. ARCTIC has a FOV 1.57 times larger and a readout time half as long as the previous imager, SPIcam, which we used from 2014 Q4 through 2015 Q3. Targets are selected primarily from the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) NEO Confirmation Page (NEOCP), and NEA Observation Planning Aid; we also refer to JPL's What's Observable page, the Spaceguard Priority List and Faint NEOs List, and requests from other observers. To quickly adapt to changing weather and seeing conditions, we create faint, midrange, and bright target lists. Detected NEOs are measured with Astrometrica and internal software, and the astrometry is reported to the MPC.As of June 19, 2016, we have targeted 2264 NEOs, 1955 with provisional designations, 1582 of which were detected. We began observing NEOCP asteroids on January 30, 2016, and have targeted 309, 207 of which were detected. In addition, we serendipitously observed 281 moving objects, 201 of which were identified as previously known objects.This work is based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium. We gratefully acknowledge support from NASA NEOO award NNX14AL17G and thank the University of Chicago Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics for observing time in 2014.

Commonly used severity scores are not good predictors of mortality in sepsis from severe leptospirosis: a series of ten patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Velissaris, Dimitrios; Karanikolas, Menelaos; Flaris, Nikolaos; Fligou, Fotini; Marangos, Markos; Filos, Kriton S

2012-01-01

Introduction. Severe leptospirosis, also known as Weil's disease, can cause multiorgan failure with high mortality. Scoring systems for disease severity have not been validated for leptospirosis, and there is no documented method to predict mortality. Methods. This is a case series on 10 patients admitted to ICU for multiorgan failure from severe leptospirosis. Data were collected retrospectively, with approval from the Institution Ethics Committee. Results. Ten patients with severe leptospirosis were admitted in the Patras University Hospital ICU in a four-year period. Although, based on SOFA scores, predicted mortality was over 80%, seven of 10 patients survived and were discharged from the hospital in good condition. There was no association between SAPS II or SOFA scores and mortality, but survivors had significantly lower APACHE II scores compared to nonsurvivors. Conclusion. Commonly used severity scores do not seem to be useful in predicting mortality in severe leptospirosis. Early ICU admission and resuscitation based on a goal-directed therapy protocol are recommended and may reduce mortality. However, this study is limited by retrospective data collection and small sample size. Data from large prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.

High performance Spark best practices for scaling and optimizing Apache Spark

CERN Document Server

Karau, Holden

2017-01-01

Apache Spark is amazing when everything clicks. But if you haven’t seen the performance improvements you expected, or still don’t feel confident enough to use Spark in production, this practical book is for you. Authors Holden Karau and Rachel Warren demonstrate performance optimizations to help your Spark queries run faster and handle larger data sizes, while using fewer resources. Ideal for software engineers, data engineers, developers, and system administrators working with large-scale data applications, this book describes techniques that can reduce data infrastructure costs and developer hours. Not only will you gain a more comprehensive understanding of Spark, you’ll also learn how to make it sing. With this book, you’ll explore: How Spark SQL’s new interfaces improve performance over SQL’s RDD data structure The choice between data joins in Core Spark and Spark SQL Techniques for getting the most out of standard RDD transformations How to work around performance issues i...

Extraction of UMLS® Concepts Using Apache cTAKES™ for German Language.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Matthias; Böckmann, Britta

2016-01-01

Automatic information extraction of medical concepts and classification with semantic standards from medical reports is useful for standardization and for clinical research. This paper presents an approach for an UMLS concept extraction with a customized natural language processing pipeline for German clinical notes using Apache cTAKES. The objectives are, to test the natural language processing tool for German language if it is suitable to identify UMLS concepts and map these with SNOMED-CT. The German UMLS database and German OpenNLP models extended the natural language processing pipeline, so the pipeline can normalize to domain ontologies such as SNOMED-CT using the German concepts. For testing, the ShARe/CLEF eHealth 2013 training dataset translated into German was used. The implemented algorithms are tested with a set of 199 German reports, obtaining a result of average 0.36 F1 measure without German stemming, pre- and post-processing of the reports.

Performance of three prognostic models in patients with cancer in need of intensive care in a medical center in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

XueZhong Xing

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV in patients with cancer admitted to intensive care unit (ICU in a single medical center in China.This is a retrospective observational cohort study including nine hundred and eighty one consecutive patients over a 2-year period.The hospital mortality rate was 4.5%. When all 981 patients were evaluated, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC, 95% Confidential Intervals of the three models in predicting hospital mortality were 0.948 (0.914-0.982, 0.863 (0.804-0.923, and 0.873 (0.813-0.934 for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. The p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the models were 0.759, 0.900 and 0.878 for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. However, SAPS 3 and APACHE IV underestimated the in-hospital mortality with standardized mortality ratio (SMR of 1.5 and 1.17 respectively, while APACHE II overestimated the in-hospital mortality with SMR of 0.72. Further analysis showed that discrimination power was better with SAPS 3 than with APACHE II and APACHE IV whether for emergency surgical and medical patients (AUROC of 0.912 vs 0.866 and 0.857 or for scheduled surgical patients (AUROC of 0.945 vs 0.834 and 0.851. Calibration was good for all models (all p > 0.05 whether for scheduled surgical patients or emergency surgical and medical patients. However, in terms of SMR, SAPS 3 was both accurate in predicting the in-hospital mortality for emergency surgical and medical patients and for scheduled surgical patients, while APACHE IV and APACHE II were not.In this cohort, we found that APACHE II, APACHE IV and SAPS 3 models had good discrimination and calibration ability in predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with cancer in need of intensive care. Of

APOGEE-2: The Second Phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment in SDSS-IV

Science.gov (United States)

Sobeck, Jennifer; Majewski, S.; Hearty, F.; Schiavon, R. P.; Holtzman, J. A.; Johnson, J.; Frinchaboy, P. M.; Skrutskie, M. F.; Munoz, R.; Pinsonneault, M. H.; Nidever, D. L.; Zasowski, G.; Garcia Perez, A.; Fabbian, D.; Meza Cofre, A.; Cunha, K. M.; Smith, V. V.; Chiappini, C.; Beers, T. C.; Steinmetz, M.; Anders, F.; Bizyaev, D.; Roman, A.; Fleming, S. W.; Crane, J. D.; SDSS-IV/APOGEE-2 Collaboration

2014-01-01

The second phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), a part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), will commence operations in 2014. APOGEE-2 represents a significant expansion over APOGEE-1, not only in the size of the stellar sample, but also in the coverage of the sky through observations in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Observations on the 2.5m Sloan Foundation Telescope of the Apache Point Observatory (APOGEE-2N) will continue immediately after the conclusion of APOGEE-1, to be followed by observations with the 2.5m du Pont Telescope of the Las Campanas Observatory (APOGEE-2S) within three years. Over the six-year lifetime of the project, high resolution (R˜22,500), high signal-to-noise (≥100) spectroscopic data in the H-band wavelength regime (1.51-1.69 μm) will be obtained for several hundred thousand stars, more than tripling the total APOGEE-1 sample. Accurate radial velocities and detailed chemical compositions will be generated for target stars in the main Galactic components (bulge, disk, and halo), open/globular clusters, and satellite dwarf galaxies. The spectroscopic follow-up program of Kepler targets with the APOGEE-2N instrument will be continued and expanded. APOGEE-2 will significantly extend and enhance the APOGEE-1 legacy of scientific contributions to understanding the origin and evolution of the elements, the assembly and formation history of galaxies like the Milky Way, and fundamental stellar astrophysics.

Long-term survival in laparoscopic vs open resection for colorectal liver metastases: inverse probability of treatment weighting using propensity scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewin, Joel W; O'Rourke, Nicholas A; Chiow, Adrian K H; Bryant, Richard; Martin, Ian; Nathanson, Leslie K; Cavallucci, David J

2016-02-01

This study compares long-term outcomes between intention-to-treat laparoscopic and open approaches to colorectal liver metastases (CLM), using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity scores to control for selection bias. Patients undergoing liver resection for CLM by 5 surgeons at 3 institutions from 2000 to early 2014 were analysed. IPTW based on propensity scores were generated and used to assess the marginal treatment effect of the laparoscopic approach via a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 298 operations were performed in 256 patients. 7 patients with planned two-stage resections were excluded leaving 284 operations in 249 patients for analysis. After IPTW, the population was well balanced. With a median follow up of 36 months, 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for the cohort were 59% and 38%. 146 laparoscopic procedures were performed in 140 patients, with weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 54% and 36% respectively. In the open group, 138 procedures were performed in 122 patients, with a weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 63% and 38% respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of OS or RFS. In the Brisbane experience, after accounting for bias in treatment assignment, long term survival after LLR for CLM is equivalent to outcomes in open surgery. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Historical review of uranium-vanadium in the eastern Carrizo Mountains, San Juan County, New Mexico and Apache County, Arizona

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chenoweth, W.L.

1980-03-01

This report is a brief review of the uranium and/or vanadium mining in the eastern Carrizo Mountains, San Juan County, New Mexico and Apache County, Arizona. It was prepared at the request of the Navajo Tribe, the New Mexico Energy and Minerals Department, and the Arizona Bureau of Geology and Mineral Technology. This report deals only with historical production data. The locations of the mines and the production are presented in figures and tables

Quantifying risk and benchmarking performance in the adult intensive care unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Higgins, Thomas L

2007-01-01

Morbidity, mortality, and length-of-stay outcomes in patients receiving critical care are difficult to interpret unless they are risk-stratified for diagnosis, presenting severity of illness, and other patient characteristics. Acuity adjustment systems for adults include the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), the Mortality Probability Model (MPM), and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS). All have recently been updated and recalibrated to reflect contemporary results. Specialized scores are also available for patient subpopulations where general acuity scores have drawbacks. Demand for outcomes data is likely to grow with pay-for-performance initiatives as well as for routine clinical, prognostic, administrative, and research applications. It is important for clinicians to understand how these scores are derived and how they are properly applied to quantify patient severity of illness and benchmark intensive care unit performance.

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

Science.gov (United States)

Majewski, Steven R.; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Allende Prieto, Carlos; Barkhouser, Robert; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Blank, Basil; Brunner, Sophia; Burton, Adam; Carrera, Ricardo; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Cunha, Kátia; Epstein, Courtney; Fitzgerald, Greg; García Pérez, Ana E.; Hearty, Fred R.; Henderson, Chuck; Holtzman, Jon A.; Johnson, Jennifer A.; Lam, Charles R.; Lawler, James E.; Maseman, Paul; Mészáros, Szabolcs; Nelson, Matthew; Nguyen, Duy Coung; Nidever, David L.; Pinsonneault, Marc; Shetrone, Matthew; Smee, Stephen; Smith, Verne V.; Stolberg, Todd; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Walker, Eric; Wilson, John C.; Zasowski, Gail; Anders, Friedrich; Basu, Sarbani; Beland, Stephane; Blanton, Michael R.; Bovy, Jo; Brownstein, Joel R.; Carlberg, Joleen; Chaplin, William; Chiappini, Cristina; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Elsworth, Yvonne; Feuillet, Diane; Fleming, Scott W.; Galbraith-Frew, Jessica; García, Rafael A.; García-Hernández, D. Aníbal; Gillespie, Bruce A.; Girardi, Léo; Gunn, James E.; Hasselquist, Sten; Hayden, Michael R.; Hekker, Saskia; Ivans, Inese; Kinemuchi, Karen; Klaene, Mark; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Mathur, Savita; Mosser, Benoît; Muna, Demitri; Munn, Jeffrey A.; Nichol, Robert C.; O'Connell, Robert W.; Parejko, John K.; Robin, A. C.; Rocha-Pinto, Helio; Schultheis, Matthias; Serenelli, Aldo M.; Shane, Neville; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Sobeck, Jennifer S.; Thompson, Benjamin; Troup, Nicholas W.; Weinberg, David H.; Zamora, Olga

2017-09-01

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three-year observing campaign on the Sloan 2.5 m Telescope, APOGEE has collected a half million high-resolution (R ˜ 22,500), high signal-to-noise ratio (>100), infrared (1.51-1.70 μm) spectra for 146,000 stars, with time series information via repeat visits to most of these stars. This paper describes the motivations for the survey and its overall design—hardware, field placement, target selection, operations—and gives an overview of these aspects as well as the data reduction, analysis, and products. An index is also given to the complement of technical papers that describe various critical survey components in detail. Finally, we discuss the achieved survey performance and illustrate the variety of potential uses of the data products by way of a number of science demonstrations, which span from time series analysis of stellar spectral variations and radial velocity variations from stellar companions, to spatial maps of kinematics, metallicity, and abundance patterns across the Galaxy and as a function of age, to new views of the interstellar medium, the chemistry of star clusters, and the discovery of rare stellar species. As part of SDSS-III Data Release 12 and later releases, all of the APOGEE data products are publicly available.

[The diagnostic scores for deep venous thrombosis].

Science.gov (United States)

Junod, A

2015-08-26

Seven diagnostic scores for the deep venous thrombosis (DVT) of lower limbs are analyzed and compared. Two features make this exer- cise difficult: the problem of distal DVT and of their proximal extension and the status of patients, whether out- or in-patients. The most popular score is the Wells score (1997), modi- fied in 2003. It includes one subjective ele- ment based on clinical judgment. The Primary Care score 12005), less known, has similar pro- perties, but uses only objective data. The pre- sent trend is to associate clinical scores with the dosage of D-Dimers to rule out with a good sensitivity the probability of TVP. For the upper limb DVT, the Constans score (2008) is available, which can also be coupled with D-Dimers testing (Kleinjan).

Hardening en servidor web Linux Apache, PHP y configurar el firewall de aplicaciones modsecurity para mitigar ataques al servidor

OpenAIRE

Espol; Delgado Quishpe, Byron Alberto

2017-01-01

Realizar un hardening al servidor web, se procederá a revisar las directivas en los archivos de configuración del servicio Apache, PHP, y se procederá a realizar instalación y configuración de un firewall de aplicaciones llamado mod_security la cual nos permitirá mitigar ataques a nuestro servidor web. realizando un análisis de vulnerabilidades encontrado en el servidor. Guayaquil Magíster en Seguridad Informática Aplicada

Dual Diagnosis and Suicide Probability in Poly-Drug Users.

Science.gov (United States)

Youssef, Ismail M; Fahmy, Magda T; Haggag, Wafaa L; Mohamed, Khalid A; Baalash, Amany A

2016-02-01

To determine the frequency of suicidal thoughts and suicidal probability among poly-substance abusers in Saudi population, and to examine the relation between dual diagnosis and suicidal thoughts. Case control study. Al-Baha Psychiatric Hospital, Saudi Arabia, from May 2011 to June 2012. Participants were 239 subjects, aged 18 - 45 years. We reviewed 122 individuals who fulfilled the DSM-IV-TR criteria of substance abuse for two or more substances, and their data were compared with that collected from 117 control persons. Suicidal cases were highly present among poly-substance abusers 64.75%. Amphetamine and cannabis were the most abused substances, (87.7% and 70.49%, respectively). Astatistically significant association with suicidality was found with longer duration of substance abuse (p Suicidal cases showed significant higher scores (p suicide probability scale and higher scores in Beck depressive inventory (p Abusing certain substances for long duration, in addition to comorbid psychiatric disorders especially with disturbed-mood element, may trigger suicidal thoughts in poly-substance abusers. Depression and suicide probability is common consequences of substance abuse.

Factors associated with pulmonary dysfunction in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery with use of intra-aortic balloon pump.

Science.gov (United States)

Amaral Gonçalves Fusatto, Helena; Castilho de Figueiredo, Luciana; Ragonete Dos Anjos Agostini, Ana Paula; Sibinelli, Melissa; Dragosavac, Desanka

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify pulmonary dysfunction and factors associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation, hospital stay, weaning failure and mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting with use of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP). This observational study analyzed respiratory, surgical, clinical and demographic variables and related them to outcomes. We analyzed 39 patients with a mean age of 61.2 years. Pulmonary dysfunction, characterized by mildly impaired gas exchange, was present from the immediate postoperative period to the third postoperative day. Mechanical ventilation time was influenced by the use of IABP and PaO2/FiO2, female gender and smoking. Intensive care unit (ICU) stay was influenced by APACHE II score and use of IABP. Mortality was strongly influenced by APACHE II score, followed by weaning failure. Pulmonary dysfunction was present from the first to the third postoperative day. Mechanical ventilation time was influenced by female gender, smoking, duration of IABP use and PaO2/FiO2 on the first postoperative day. ICU stay was influenced by APACHE II score and duration of IABP. Mortality was influenced by APACHE II score, followed by weaning failure. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Aplikasi Search Engine Perpustakaan Petra Berbasis Android dengan Apache SOLR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Handojo

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstrak: Pendidikan merupakan kebutuhan yang penting bagi manusia untuk meningkatkan kemampuan serta taraf hidupnya.Selain melalui pendidikan formal, ilmu juga dapat diperoleh melalui media cetak atau buku.Perpustakaan merupakan salah satu sarana yang penting dalam menunjang hal tersebut.Meskipun sangat bermanfaat, terdapat kesulitan penggunaan layanan perpustakaan, karena terlalu banyaknya koleksi pustaka yang ada (buku, jurnal, majalah, dan sebagainya sehingga sulit untuk menemukan buku yang ingin dicari.Oleh sebab itu, selain harus berkembang dengan penyediaan koleksi pustaka, perpustakaan harus dapat mengikuti perkembangan zaman yang ada sehingga mempermudah penggunaan layanan perpustakaan.Saat iniperpustakaan Universitas Kristen Petra memiliki perpustakaan dengan kurang lebih 230.000 koleksi fisik maupun digital (berdasarkan data 2014.Dimana daftar koleksi fisik dan dokumen digital dapat diakses melalui website perpustakaan.Adanya koleksi pustaka yang sangat banyak ini menyebabkan kesulitan pengguna dalam melakukan proses pencarian. Sehingga guna menambah fitur layanan yang diberikan maka pada penelitian ini dibuatlah sebuah aplikasi layanan search engine perpustakaan menggunakan platform Apache SOLR dan database PostgreSQL. Selain itu, guna lebih meningkatkan kemudahan akses maka aplikasi ini dibuat dengan menggunakan platform mobile device berbasis Android.Selain pengujian terhadap aplikasi dilakukan juga pengujian dengan mengedarkan kuesioner terhadap 50 calon pengguna.Dari hasil kuestioner tersebut menunjukkan bahwa fitur-fitur yang dibuat telah sesuai dengan kebutuhan pengguna (78%. Kata kunci: SOLR, Mesin Pencarian, Perpustakaan, PostgreSQL Abstract: Education is an essential requirement for people to improve their standard of living. Other than through formal education, science can also be obtained through the print media or books. Library is one important tool supporting it. Although it is useful, there are difficulties use library

A Novel Scoring System Approach to Assess Patients with Lyme Disease (Nutech Functional Score).

Science.gov (United States)

Shroff, Geeta; Hopf-Seidel, Petra

2018-01-01

A bacterial infection by Borrelia burgdorferi referred to as Lyme disease (LD) or borreliosis is transmitted mostly by a bite of the tick Ixodes scapularis in the USA and Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Various tests are used for the diagnosis of LD, but their results are often unreliable. We compiled a list of clinically visible and patient-reported symptoms that are associated with LD. Based on this list, we developed a novel scoring system. Nutech functional Score (NFS), which is a 43 point positional (every symptom is subgraded and each alternative gets some points according to its position) and directional (moves in direction bad to good) scoring system that assesses the patient's condition. The grades of the scoring system have been converted into numeric values for conducting probability based studies. Each symptom is graded from 1 to 5 that runs in direction BAD → GOOD. NFS is a unique tool that can be used universally to assess the condition of patients with LD.

The outcome of critical illness in decompensated alcoholic liver cirrhosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kavli, M; Strøm, T; Carlsson, M

2012-01-01

physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and simplified organ failure assessment (SOFA) in predicting outcome. We hypothesized that in a Scandinavian cohort of ICU patients, APACHE II, SOFA, and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) were superior to predict outcome compared...... with the Child-Pugh score. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective cohort analysis was conducted in a university-affiliated ICU. Eighty-seven adult patients with decompensated liver alcoholic cirrhosis were admitted from January 2007 to January 2010. RESULTS: The patients were severely ill with median scores...... alcoholic liver disease should be revised....

Mescalero Apache Tribe Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peso, F.

1992-03-13

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended, authorizes the siting, construction and operation of a Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility. The MRS is intended to be used for the temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel from the nation's nuclear power plants beginning as early as 1998. Pursuant to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Office of the Nuclear Waste Negotiator was created. On October 7, 1991, the Nuclear Waste Negotiator invited the governors of states and the Presidents of Indian tribes to apply for government grants in order to conduct a study to assess under what conditions, if any, they might consider hosting an MRS facility. Pursuant to this invitation, on October 11, 1991 the Mescalero Apache Indian Tribe of Mescalero, NM applied for a grant to conduct a phased, preliminary study of the safety, technical, political, environmental, social and economic feasibility of hosting an MRS. The preliminary study included: (1) An investigative education process to facilitate the Tribe's comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social, political, and economic aspects of hosting an MRS, and; (2) The development of an extensive program that is enabling the Tribe, in collaboration with the Negotiator, to reach an informed and carefully researched decision regarding the conditions, (if any), under which further pursuit of the MRS would be considered. The Phase 1 grant application enabled the Tribe to begin the initial activities necessary to determine whether further consideration is warranted for hosting the MRS facility. The Tribe intends to pursue continued study of the MRS in order to meet the following objectives: (1) Continuing the education process towards a comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social and economic aspects of the MRS; (2) Conducting an effective public participation and information program; (3) Participating in MRS meetings.

Mescalero Apache Tribe Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peso, F.

1992-01-01

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended, authorizes the siting, construction and operation of a Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility. The MRS is intended to be used for the temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel from the nation's nuclear power plants beginning as early as 1998. Pursuant to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Office of the Nuclear Waste Negotiator was created. On October 7, 1991, the Nuclear Waste Negotiator invited the governors of states and the Presidents of Indian tribes to apply for government grants in order to conduct a study to assess under what conditions, if any, they might consider hosting an MRS facility. Pursuant to this invitation, on October 11, 1991 the Mescalero Apache Indian Tribe of Mescalero, NM applied for a grant to conduct a phased, preliminary study of the safety, technical, political, environmental, social and economic feasibility of hosting an MRS. The preliminary study included: (1) An investigative education process to facilitate the Tribe's comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social, political, and economic aspects of hosting an MRS, and; (2) The development of an extensive program that is enabling the Tribe, in collaboration with the Negotiator, to reach an informed and carefully researched decision regarding the conditions, (if any), under which further pursuit of the MRS would be considered. The Phase 1 grant application enabled the Tribe to begin the initial activities necessary to determine whether further consideration is warranted for hosting the MRS facility. The Tribe intends to pursue continued study of the MRS in order to meet the following objectives: (1) Continuing the education process towards a comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social and economic aspects of the MRS; (2) Conducting an effective public participation and information program; (3) Participating in MRS meetings

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majewski, Steven R.; Brunner, Sophia; Burton, Adam; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Pérez, Ana E. García; Hearty, Fred R.; Lam, Charles R.; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Frinchaboy, Peter M.; Prieto, Carlos Allende; Carrera, Ricardo; Barkhouser, Robert; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Blank, Basil; Henderson, Chuck; Cunha, Kátia; Epstein, Courtney; Johnson, Jennifer A.; Fitzgerald, Greg; Holtzman, Jon A.

2017-01-01

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three-year observing campaign on the Sloan 2.5 m Telescope, APOGEE has collected a half million high-resolution ( R  ∼ 22,500), high signal-to-noise ratio (>100), infrared (1.51–1.70 μ m) spectra for 146,000 stars, with time series information via repeat visits to most of these stars. This paper describes the motivations for the survey and its overall design—hardware, field placement, target selection, operations—and gives an overview of these aspects as well as the data reduction, analysis, and products. An index is also given to the complement of technical papers that describe various critical survey components in detail. Finally, we discuss the achieved survey performance and illustrate the variety of potential uses of the data products by way of a number of science demonstrations, which span from time series analysis of stellar spectral variations and radial velocity variations from stellar companions, to spatial maps of kinematics, metallicity, and abundance patterns across the Galaxy and as a function of age, to new views of the interstellar medium, the chemistry of star clusters, and the discovery of rare stellar species. As part of SDSS-III Data Release 12 and later releases, all of the APOGEE data products are publicly available.

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Majewski, Steven R.; Brunner, Sophia; Burton, Adam; Chojnowski, S. Drew; Pérez, Ana E. García; Hearty, Fred R.; Lam, Charles R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Schiavon, Ricardo P. [Gemini Observatory, 670 N. A’Ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Frinchaboy, Peter M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76129 (United States); Prieto, Carlos Allende; Carrera, Ricardo [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Barkhouser, Robert [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Bizyaev, Dmitry [Apache Point Observatory and New Mexico State University, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM, 88349-0059 (United States); Blank, Basil; Henderson, Chuck [Pulse Ray Machining and Design, 4583 State Route 414, Beaver Dams, NY 14812 (United States); Cunha, Kátia [Observatório Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20921-400 (Brazil); Epstein, Courtney; Johnson, Jennifer A. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Fitzgerald, Greg [New England Optical Systems, 237 Cedar Hill Street, Marlborough, MA 01752 (United States); Holtzman, Jon A. [New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); and others

2017-09-01

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), one of the programs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), has now completed its systematic, homogeneous spectroscopic survey sampling all major populations of the Milky Way. After a three-year observing campaign on the Sloan 2.5 m Telescope, APOGEE has collected a half million high-resolution ( R  ∼ 22,500), high signal-to-noise ratio (>100), infrared (1.51–1.70 μ m) spectra for 146,000 stars, with time series information via repeat visits to most of these stars. This paper describes the motivations for the survey and its overall design—hardware, field placement, target selection, operations—and gives an overview of these aspects as well as the data reduction, analysis, and products. An index is also given to the complement of technical papers that describe various critical survey components in detail. Finally, we discuss the achieved survey performance and illustrate the variety of potential uses of the data products by way of a number of science demonstrations, which span from time series analysis of stellar spectral variations and radial velocity variations from stellar companions, to spatial maps of kinematics, metallicity, and abundance patterns across the Galaxy and as a function of age, to new views of the interstellar medium, the chemistry of star clusters, and the discovery of rare stellar species. As part of SDSS-III Data Release 12 and later releases, all of the APOGEE data products are publicly available.

Prediction of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients with haematologic malignancies using a modified Infection Probability Score (mIPS).

Science.gov (United States)

Schalk, Enrico; Hanus, Lynn; Färber, Jacqueline; Fischer, Thomas; Heidel, Florian H

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to predict the probability of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) in patients with haematologic malignancies using a modified version of the Infection Probability Score (mIPS). In order to perform a prospective, mono-centric surveillance of complications in clinical routine due to short-term central venous catheters (CVCs) in consecutive patients receiving chemotherapy from March 2013 to September 2014, IPS was calculated at CVC insertion and removal (mIPSin and mIPSex, respectively). We used the 2012 Infectious Diseases Working Party of the German Society of Haematology and Medical Oncology (AGIHO/DGHO) criteria to define CRBSI. In total, 143 patients (mean 59.5 years, 61.4 % male) with 267 triple-lumen CVCs (4044 CVC days; mean 15.1 days, range 1-60 days) were analysed. CVCs were inserted for therapy of acute leukaemia (53.2 %), multiple myeloma (24.3 %) or lymphoma (11.2 %), and 93.6 % were inserted in the jugular vein. A total of 66 CRBSI cases (24.7 %) were documented (12 definite/13 probable/41 possible). The incidence was 16.3/1000 CVC days (2.9/3.1/10.1 per 1000 CVC days for definite/probable/possible CRBSI, respectively). In CRBSI cases, the mIPSex was higher as compared to cases without CRBSI (13.1 vs. 7.1; p < 0.001). The best mIPSex cutoff for CRBSI prediction was 8 points (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.77; sensitivity = 84.9 %, specificity = 60.7 %, negative predictive value = 92.4 %). For patients with an mIPSex ≥8, the risk for a CRBSI was high (odds ratio [OR] = 5.9; p < 0.001) and even increased if, additionally, CVC had been in use for about 10 days (OR = 9.8; p < 0.001). In case other causes of infection are excluded, a mIPSex ≥8 and duration of CVC use of about 10 days predict a very high risk of CRBSI. Patients with a mIPSex <8 have a low risk of CRBSI of 8 %.

Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A

2014-09-01

Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Desempenho de seis modelos de predição prognóstica em pacientes críticos que receberam suporte renal extracorpóreo Performance of six prognostic scores in critically ILL patients receiving renal replacement therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth R. Maccariello

2008-06-01

Full Text Available JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Não existe consenso sobre qual modelo prognóstico deva ser utilizado em pacientes com disfunção renal aguda (DRA. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho de seis escores de prognóstico em pacientes que necessitaram de suporte renal. MÉTODO: Coorte prospectiva de pacientes internados nas unidades de terapia intensiva (UTI de três hospitais terciários que necessitaram de suporte renal por DRA durante 32 meses. Foram excluídos os pacientes crônicos em programa de diálise ou com BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There is no consensus about prognostic scores for use in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of six prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality in patients with AKI and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT. METHODS: Prospective cohort of patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICU of three tertiary care hospitals that required RRT for AKI over a 32-month period. Patients with end-stage renal disease and those with ICU stay < 24h were excluded. Data from the first 24h of ICU admission were used to calculate SAPS II and APACHE II scores, and data from the first 24h of RRT were used in the calculation of LOD, ODIN, Liaño and Mehta scores. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under ROC curve (AUROC and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The hospital mortality was the end-point of interest. RESULTS: 467 patients were evaluated. Hospital mortality rate was 75%. Mean SAPS II and APACHE II scores were 48.5 ±11.2 and 27.4 ± 6.3 points, and median LOD score was 7 (5-8 points. Except for Mehta score (p = 0.001, calibration was appropriate in all models. However, discrimination was uniformly unsatisfactory; AUROC ranged from 0.60 for ODIN to 0.72 for SAPS II and Mehta scores. In addition, except for Mehta, all models tended to underestimate hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Organ dysfunction, general and

Inequalities in Open Source Software Development: Analysis of Contributor's Commits in Apache Software Foundation Projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Chełkowski, Tadeusz; Gloor, Peter; Jemielniak, Dariusz

2016-01-01

While researchers are becoming increasingly interested in studying OSS phenomenon, there is still a small number of studies analyzing larger samples of projects investigating the structure of activities among OSS developers. The significant amount of information that has been gathered in the publicly available open-source software repositories and mailing-list archives offers an opportunity to analyze projects structures and participant involvement. In this article, using on commits data from 263 Apache projects repositories (nearly all), we show that although OSS development is often described as collaborative, but it in fact predominantly relies on radically solitary input and individual, non-collaborative contributions. We also show, in the first published study of this magnitude, that the engagement of contributors is based on a power-law distribution.

Heart sounds analysis using probability assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Plesinger, F; Viscor, I; Halamek, J; Jurco, J; Jurak, P

2017-07-31

This paper describes a method for automated discrimination of heart sounds recordings according to the Physionet Challenge 2016. The goal was to decide if the recording refers to normal or abnormal heart sounds or if it is not possible to decide (i.e. 'unsure' recordings). Heart sounds S1 and S2 are detected using amplitude envelopes in the band 15-90 Hz. The averaged shape of the S1/S2 pair is computed from amplitude envelopes in five different bands (15-90 Hz; 55-150 Hz; 100-250 Hz; 200-450 Hz; 400-800 Hz). A total of 53 features are extracted from the data. The largest group of features is extracted from the statistical properties of the averaged shapes; other features are extracted from the symmetry of averaged shapes, and the last group of features is independent of S1 and S2 detection. Generated features are processed using logical rules and probability assessment, a prototype of a new machine-learning method. The method was trained using 3155 records and tested on 1277 hidden records. It resulted in a training score of 0.903 (sensitivity 0.869, specificity 0.937) and a testing score of 0.841 (sensitivity 0.770, specificity 0.913). The revised method led to a test score of 0.853 in the follow-up phase of the challenge. The presented solution achieved 7th place out of 48 competing entries in the Physionet Challenge 2016 (official phase). In addition, the PROBAfind software for probability assessment was introduced.

A new adult appendicitis score improves diagnostic accuracy of acute appendicitis - a prospective study

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The aim of the study was to construct a new scoring system for more accurate diagnostics of acute appendicitis. Applying the new score into clinical practice could reduce the need of potentially harmful diagnostic imaging. Methods This prospective study enrolled 829 adults presenting with clinical suspicion of appendicitis, including 392 (47%) patients with appendicitis. The collected data included clinical findings and symptoms together with laboratory tests (white cell count, neutrophil count and C-reactive protein), and the timing of the onset of symptoms. The score was constructed by logistic regression analysis using multiple imputations for missing values. Performance of the constructed score in patients with complete data (n = 725) was compared with Alvarado score and Appendicitis inflammatory response score. Results 343 (47%) of patients with complete data had appendicitis. 199 (58%) patients with appendicitis had score value at least 16 and were classified as high probability group with 93% specificity.Patients with score below 11 were classified as low probability of appendicitis. Only 4% of patients with appendicitis had a score below 11, and none of them had complicated appendicitis. In contrast, 207 (54%) of non-appendicitis patients had score below 11. There were no cases with complicated appendicitis in the low probability group. The area under ROC curve was significantly larger with the new score 0.882 (95% CI 0.858 – 0.906) compared with AUC of Alvarado score 0.790 (0.758 – 0.823) and Appendicitis inflammatory response score 0.810 (0.779 – 0.840). Conclusions The new diagnostic score is fast and accurate in categorizing patients with suspected appendicitis, and roughly halves the need of diagnostic imaging. PMID:24970111

Intra-abdominal pressure and procalcitonin are valid prognostic markers of acute pancreatitis severity (intra-abdominal pressure and procalcitonin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojanović Maja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Early assessment of the severity and etiology of acute pancreatitis is very important for further treatment procedures. The aim of the study was to investigate the association between intra-abdominal pressure (IAP and procalcitonin as an indicator of severity of acute pancreatitis. Method. The IAP is measured every 12 hours through the urinary catheter placed in the bladder, in 65 patients with acute pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is measured within 24 hours of receipt of the patient, after 48 hours and after 78 hours. These values of procalcitonin and IAP were compared to each other and in relation to the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II scoring system. Patients with APACHE II score > 8 are defined with moderate and severe acute pancreatitis. Results. The values of IAP (18,1 ± 4,5 mmHg vs 8,9 ± 2,67 mmHg; p = 0,01 , procalcitonin (15,43 + 2,25 ng/ml vs 3,14 + 1,12 ng/ml; p =0,031 and APACHE II scoring system (17,3 ± 6,24 vs 6,5 ± 1,0; p = 0,013 were significantly higher in patients with moderate and severe acute pancreatitis. The increase in the value of IAP was accompanied by an increase in the value of procalcitonin (r = 0,581, p = 0,01. The sensitivity in the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis after 24 hours of receiving the patient is 91,7% for the IAP, 87,8% for procalcitonin and 84,9% for APACHE II scoring system. Conclusion. The increase in the value of the IAP is accompanied by an increase in the values of procalcitonin, also patients with higher values of APACHE II scoring sys­tem have higher values of IAP and procalcitonin. The values of IAP and procalcitonin can be used as markers of acute pancreatitis severity.

FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A PETROLEUM REFINERY FOR THE JICARILLA APACHE TRIBE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, John D.

2004-01-01

A feasibility study for a proposed petroleum refinery for the Jicarilla Apache Indian Reservation was performed. The available crude oil production was identified and characterized. There is 6,000 barrels per day of crude oil production available for processing in the proposed refinery. The proposed refinery will utilize a lower temperature, smaller crude fractionation unit. It will have a Naphtha Hydrodesulfurizer and Reformer to produce high octane gasoline. The surplus hydrogen from the reformer will be used in a specialized hydrocracker to convert the heavier crude oil fractions to ultra low sulfur gasoline and diesel fuel products. The proposed refinery will produce gasoline, jet fuel, diesel fuel, and a minimal amount of lube oil. The refinery will require about $86,700,000 to construct. It will have net annual pre-tax profit of about $17,000,000. The estimated return on investment is 20%. The feasibility is positive subject to confirmation of long term crude supply. The study also identified procedures for evaluating processing options as a means for American Indian Tribes and Native American Corporations to maximize the value of their crude oil production

A Novel Scoring System Approach to Assess Patients with Lyme Disease (Nutech Functional Score

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Geeta Shroff

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: A bacterial infection by Borrelia burgdorferi referred to as Lyme disease (LD or borreliosis is transmitted mostly by a bite of the tick Ixodes scapularis in the USA and Ixodes ricinus in Europe. Various tests are used for the diagnosis of LD, but their results are often unreliable. We compiled a list of clinically visible and patient-reported symptoms that are associated with LD. Based on this list, we developed a novel scoring system. Methodology: Nutech functional Score (NFS, which is a 43 point positional (every symptom is subgraded and each alternative gets some points according to its position and directional (moves in direction bad to good scoring system that assesses the patient's condition. Results: The grades of the scoring system have been converted into numeric values for conducting probability based studies. Each symptom is graded from 1 to 5 that runs in direction BAD → GOOD. Conclusion: NFS is a unique tool that can be used universally to assess the condition of patients with LD.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

Explaining soccer match outcomes with goal scoring opportunities predictive analytics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eggels, H.; van Elk, R.; Pechenizkiy, M.

2016-01-01

In elite soccer, decisions are often based on recent results and emotions. In this paper, we propose a method to determine the expected winner of a match in elite soccer. The expected result of a soccer match is determined by estimating the probability of scoring for the individual goal scoring

Perform wordcount Map-Reduce Job in Single Node Apache Hadoop cluster and compress data using Lempel-Ziv-Oberhumer (LZO) algorithm

OpenAIRE

Mirajkar, Nandan; Bhujbal, Sandeep; Deshmukh, Aaradhana

2013-01-01

Applications like Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter have huge data which has to be stored and retrieved as per client access. This huge data storage requires huge database leading to increase in physical storage and becomes complex for analysis required in business growth. This storage capacity can be reduced and distributed processing of huge data can be done using Apache Hadoop which uses Map-reduce algorithm and combines the repeating data so that entire data is stored in reduced format. The paper ...

An Adjusted Probability Method for the Identification of Sociometric Status in Classrooms

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Francisco J. García Bacete

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to test the performance of an adjusted probability method for sociometric classification proposed by García Bacete (GB in comparison with two previous methods. Specific goals were to examine the overall agreement between methods, the behavioral correlates of each sociometric group, the sources for discrepant classifications between methods, the behavioral profiles of discrepant and consistent cases between methods, and age differences.Method: We compared the GB adjusted probability method with the standard score model proposed by Coie and Dodge (CD and the probability score model proposed by Newcomb and Bukowski (NB. The GB method is an adaptation of the NB method, cutoff scores are derived from the distribution of raw liked most and liked least scores in each classroom instead of using fixed and absolute scores as does NB method. The criteria for neglected status are also modified by the GB method. Participants were 569 children (45% girls from 23 elementary school classrooms (13 Grades 1–2, 10 Grades 5–6.Results: We found agreement as well as differences between the three methods. The CD method yielded discrepancies in the classifications because of its dependence on z-scores and composite dimensions. The NB method was less optimal in the validation of the behavioral characteristics of the sociometric groups, because of its fixed cutoffs for identifying preferred, rejected, and controversial children, and not differentiating between positive and negative nominations for neglected children. The GB method addressed some of the limitations of the other two methods. It improved the classified of neglected students, as well as discrepant cases of the preferred, rejected, and controversial groups. Agreement between methods was higher with the oldest children.Conclusion: GB is a valid sociometric method as evidences by the behavior profiles of the sociometric status groups identified with this method.

Visible Wavelength Reflectance Spectra and Taxonomies of Near-Earth Objects from Apache Point Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Hammergren, Mark; Brucker, Melissa J.; Nault, Kristie A.; Gyuk, Geza; Solontoi, Michael R.

2015-11-01

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are interesting to scientists and the general public for diverse reasons: their impacts pose a threat to life and property; they present important albeit biased records of the formation and evolution of the Solar System; and their materials may provide in situ resources for future space exploration and habitation.In January 2015 we began a program of NEO astrometric follow-up and physical characterization using a 17% share of time on the Astrophysical Research Consortium (ARC) 3.5-meter telescope at Apache Point Observatory (APO). Our 500 hours of annual observing time are split into frequent, short astrometric runs (see poster by K. A. Nault et. al), and half-night runs devoted to physical characterization (see poster by M. J. Brucker et. al for preliminary rotational lightcurve results). NEO surface compositions are investigated with 0.36-1.0 μm reflectance spectroscopy using the Dual Imaging Spectrograph (DIS) instrument. As of August 25, 2015, including testing runs during fourth quarter 2014, we have obtained reflectance spectra of 68 unique NEOs, ranging in diameter from approximately 5m to 8km.In addition to investigating the compositions of individual NEOs to inform impact hazard and space resource evaluations, we may examine the distribution of taxonomic types and potential trends with other physical and orbital properties. For example, the Yarkovsky effect, which is dependent on asteroid shape, mass, rotation, and thermal characteristics, is believed to dominate other dynamical effects in driving the delivery of small NEOs from the main asteroid belt. Studies of the taxonomic distribution of a large sample of NEOs of a wide range of sizes will test this hypothesis.We present a preliminary analysis of the reflectance spectra obtained in our survey to date, including taxonomic classifications and potential trends with size.Acknowledgements: Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5-meter telescope, which

Predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder following critical illness: A mixed methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Battle, Ceri E; James, Karen; Bromfield, Tom; Temblett, Paul

2017-11-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder has been reported in survivors of critical illness. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder in survivors of critical illness. Patients attending the intensive care unit (ICU) follow-up clinic completed the UK-Post-Traumatic Stress Syndrome 14-Questions Inventory and data was collected from their medical records. Predictors investigated included age, gender, Apache II score, ICU length of stay, pre-illness psychopathology; delirium and benzodiazepine administration during ICU stay and delusional memories of the ICU stay following discharge. A total of 198 patients participated, with 54 (27%) patients suffering with post-traumatic stress disorder. On multivariable logistic regression, the significant predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder were younger age, lower Apache II score, pre-illness psychopathology and delirium during the ICU stay. The predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder in this study concur with previous research however a lower Apache II score has not been previously reported.

Predicting death from kala-azar: construction, development, and validation of a score set and accompanying software.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Dorcas Lamounier; Rocha, Regina Lunardi; Chaves, Eldo de Brito Ferreira; Batista, Vivianny Gonçalves de Vasconcelos; Costa, Henrique Lamounier; Costa, Carlos Henrique Nery

2016-01-01

Early identification of patients at higher risk of progressing to severe disease and death is crucial for implementing therapeutic and preventive measures; this could reduce the morbidity and mortality from kala-azar. We describe a score set composed of four scales in addition to software for quick assessment of the probability of death from kala-azar at the point of care. Data from 883 patients diagnosed between September 2005 and August 2008 were used to derive the score set, and data from 1,031 patients diagnosed between September 2008 and November 2013 were used to validate the models. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were used to derive the optimal multivariate prediction models. Model performance was assessed by its discriminatory accuracy. A computational specialist system (Kala-Cal(r)) was developed to speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores. The clinical prediction score showed high discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.90) for distinguishing death from survival for children ≤2 years old. Performance improved after adding laboratory variables (AUC 0.93). The clinical score showed equivalent discrimination (AUC 0.89) for older children and adults, which also improved after including laboratory data (AUC 0.92). The score set also showed a high, although lower, discrimination when applied to the validation cohort. This score set and Kala-Cal(r) software may help identify individuals with the greatest probability of death. The associated software may speed up the calculation of the probability of death based on clinical scores and assist physicians in decision-making.

Inequalities in Open Source Software Development: Analysis of Contributor’s Commits in Apache Software Foundation Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

While researchers are becoming increasingly interested in studying OSS phenomenon, there is still a small number of studies analyzing larger samples of projects investigating the structure of activities among OSS developers. The significant amount of information that has been gathered in the publicly available open-source software repositories and mailing-list archives offers an opportunity to analyze projects structures and participant involvement. In this article, using on commits data from 263 Apache projects repositories (nearly all), we show that although OSS development is often described as collaborative, but it in fact predominantly relies on radically solitary input and individual, non-collaborative contributions. We also show, in the first published study of this magnitude, that the engagement of contributors is based on a power-law distribution. PMID:27096157

Technology Performance Level (TPL) Scoring Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Costello, Ronan [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Babarit, Aurelien [Ecole Centrale de Nantes (France). Lab. of Research in Hydrodynamics, Energetics, and Atmospheric Environment (LHEEA); Neilson, Kim [Ramboll, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bittencourt, Claudio [DNV GL, London (United Kingdom); Kennedy, Ben [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom)

2016-09-01

Three different ways of combining scores are used in the revised formulation. These are arithmetic mean, geometric mean and multiplication with normalisation. Arithmetic mean is used when combining scores that measure similar attributes, e.g. used for combining costs. The arithmetic mean has the property that it is similar to a logical OR, e.g. when combining costs it does not matter what the individual costs are only what the combined cost is. Geometric mean and Multiplication are used when combining scores that measure disparate attributes. Multiplication is similar to a logical AND, it is used to combine ‘must haves.’ As a result, this method is more punitive than the geometric mean; to get a good score in the combined result it is necessary to have a good score in ALL of the inputs. e.g. the different types of survivability are ‘must haves.’ On balance, the revised TPL is probably less punitive than the previous spreadsheet, multiplication is used sparingly as a method of combining scores. This is in line with the feedback of the Wave Energy Prize judges.

Enteral Feeding in Abdominal Compartment Syndrome

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Ye. V Grigoryev

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: to substantiate the choice of a gastrointestinal tract (GIT function support regimen as a mode for correction of the abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS. Subjects and methods. Forty-three patients with different causes of inadequate GIT function of various origin and ACS (disseminated peritonitis (45%, pancreatitis (24%, and severe concomitant injury (31% were examined. Group 1 (control received complete parenteral nutritional feeding (n=23; APACHE II scores, 21±4; calculated probability of fatal outcome, 33.5%. In Group II (study, complete parenteral feeding in the first 24 hours after stabilization was supplemented with GIT function support with Pepsisorb (Nutricia in doses of 500, 1000, and 1500 ml on days 1, 2, and 3, respectively (n=20; APACHE II scores, 20±6; calculated probability of fatal outcome, 37.1%. During early enteral nutritional support, the SOFA score was significantly less than that in Group 1 on days 2—3; the oxygenation index significantly increased on day 3; the value of intra-abdominal hypertension decreased to the control values. The positive effect of the GIT function support regimen on regression of the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS was confirmed by the lowered levels of biological markers (von Willebrand factor (WF and endothelin-1 as markers of endothelial damage of MODS. Correlation analysis showed a direct correlation between the markers of endothelial damage and the SOFA scores (r=0.34; p=0.05 for WF and r=0.49;p=0.03 for endothelin. Conclusion. The GIT function support regimen via early enteral alimentation with Peptisorb, which was initiated in the first 24 hours after admission, is able to level off the manifestations of the early stages of the abdominal compartment syndrome, with the acceptable values of oxygen balance and water-electrolyte and osmotic homeostasis being achieved. Key words: abdominal compartment syndrome, nutritional support, biological markers, oxygenation index

Building a Scoring Model for Small and Medium Enterprises

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Răzvan Constantin CARACOTA

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to produce a scoring model for small and medium enterprises seeking financing through a bank loan. To analyze the loan application, scoring system developed for companies is as follows: scoring quantitative factors and scoring qualitative factors. We have estimated the probability of default using logistic regression. Regression coefficients determination was made with a solver in Excel using five ratios as input data. Analyses and simulations were conducted on a sample of 113 companies, all accepted for funding. Based on financial information obtained over two years, 2007 and 2008, we could establishe and appreciate the default value.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of acute respiratory failure in the patients 90 years old and over

Science.gov (United States)

Kung, Shu-Chen; Wang, Ching-Min; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chao, Chien-Ming

2018-01-01

This retrospective cohort study investigated the outcomes and prognostic factors in nonagenarians (patients 90 years old or older) with acute respiratory failure. Between 2006 and 2016, all nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) were enrolled. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality and ventilator dependency were measured. A total of 173 nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 56 patients died during the hospital stay and the rate of in-hospital mortality was 32.4%. Patients with higher APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.91; 95 % CI, 1.55-22.45; p = 0.009, APACHE II scores ≥ 25 vs APACHE II scores < 15), use of vasoactive agent (adjust OR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.12-6.37; p = 0.03) and more organ dysfunction (adjusted OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 3.38-36.36, p < 0.001; ≥ 3 organ dysfunction vs ≤ 1 organ dysfunction) were more likely to die. Among the 117 survivors, 25 (21.4%) patients became dependent on MV. Female gender (adjusted OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.16-10.76, p = 0.027) and poor consciousness level (adjusted OR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.41-17.58, p = 0.013) were associated with MV dependency. In conclusion, the mortality rate of nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure was high, especially for those with higher APACHE II scores or more organ dysfunction. PMID:29467961

The outcomes and prognostic factors of acute respiratory failure in the patients 90 years old and over.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wan-Ling; Chen, Chin-Ming; Kung, Shu-Chen; Wang, Ching-Min; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chao, Chien-Ming

2018-01-23

This retrospective cohort study investigated the outcomes and prognostic factors in nonagenarians (patients 90 years old or older) with acute respiratory failure. Between 2006 and 2016, all nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) were enrolled. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality and ventilator dependency were measured. A total of 173 nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 56 patients died during the hospital stay and the rate of in-hospital mortality was 32.4%. Patients with higher APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.91; 95 % CI, 1.55-22.45; p = 0.009, APACHE II scores ≥ 25 vs APACHE II scores < 15), use of vasoactive agent (adjust OR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.12-6.37; p = 0.03) and more organ dysfunction (adjusted OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 3.38-36.36, p < 0.001; ≥ 3 organ dysfunction vs ≤ 1 organ dysfunction) were more likely to die. Among the 117 survivors, 25 (21.4%) patients became dependent on MV. Female gender (adjusted OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.16-10.76, p = 0.027) and poor consciousness level (adjusted OR, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.41-17.58, p = 0.013) were associated with MV dependency. In conclusion, the mortality rate of nonagenarians with acute respiratory failure was high, especially for those with higher APACHE II scores or more organ dysfunction.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ESTIMATION METHODS OF PHARMACY ORGANIZATION BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY

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V. L. Adzhienko

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A purpose of this study was to determine the probability of bankruptcy by various methods in order to predict the financial crisis of pharmacy organization. Estimating the probability of pharmacy organization bankruptcy was conducted using W. Beaver’s method adopted in the Russian Federation, with integrated assessment of financial stability use on the basis of scoring analysis. The results obtained by different methods are comparable and show that the risk of bankruptcy of the pharmacy organization is small.

THE DATA REDUCTION PIPELINE FOR THE APACHE POINT OBSERVATORY GALACTIC EVOLUTION EXPERIMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nidever, David L.; Holtzman, Jon A.; Prieto, Carlos Allende; Mészáros, Szabolcs; Beland, Stephane; Bender, Chad; Desphande, Rohit; Bizyaev, Dmitry; Burton, Adam; García Pérez, Ana E.; Hearty, Fred R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Sobeck, Jennifer S.; Wilson, John C.; Fleming, Scott W.; Muna, Demitri; Nguyen, Duy; Schiavon, Ricardo P.; Shetrone, Matthew

2015-01-01

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III, explores the stellar populations of the Milky Way using the Sloan 2.5-m telescope linked to a high resolution (R ∼ 22,500), near-infrared (1.51–1.70 μm) spectrograph with 300 optical fibers. For over 150,000 predominantly red giant branch stars that APOGEE targeted across the Galactic bulge, disks and halo, the collected high signal-to-noise ratio (>100 per half-resolution element) spectra provide accurate (∼0.1 km s −1 ) RVs, stellar atmospheric parameters, and precise (≲0.1 dex) chemical abundances for about 15 chemical species. Here we describe the basic APOGEE data reduction software that reduces multiple 3D raw data cubes into calibrated, well-sampled, combined 1D spectra, as implemented for the SDSS-III/APOGEE data releases (DR10, DR11 and DR12). The processing of the near-IR spectral data of APOGEE presents some challenges for reduction, including automated sky subtraction and telluric correction over a 3°-diameter field and the combination of spectrally dithered spectra. We also discuss areas for future improvement

Detection of attack-targeted scans from the Apache HTTP Server access logs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merve Baş Seyyar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A web application could be visited for different purposes. It is possible for a web site to be visited by a regular user as a normal (natural visit, to be viewed by crawlers, bots, spiders, etc. for indexing purposes, lastly to be exploratory scanned by malicious users prior to an attack. An attack targeted web scan can be viewed as a phase of a potential attack and can lead to more attack detection as compared to traditional detection methods. In this work, we propose a method to detect attack-oriented scans and to distinguish them from other types of visits. In this context, we use access log files of Apache (or ISS web servers and try to determine attack situations through examination of the past data. In addition to web scan detections, we insert a rule set to detect SQL Injection and XSS attacks. Our approach has been applied on sample data sets and results have been analyzed in terms of performance measures to compare our method and other commonly used detection techniques. Furthermore, various tests have been made on log samples from real systems. Lastly, several suggestions about further development have been also discussed.

THE DATA REDUCTION PIPELINE FOR THE APACHE POINT OBSERVATORY GALACTIC EVOLUTION EXPERIMENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nidever, David L. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Holtzman, Jon A. [New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Prieto, Carlos Allende; Mészáros, Szabolcs [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Via Láctea s/n, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Beland, Stephane [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO (United States); Bender, Chad; Desphande, Rohit [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bizyaev, Dmitry [Apache Point Observatory and New Mexico State University, P.O. Box 59, sunspot, NM 88349-0059 (United States); Burton, Adam; García Pérez, Ana E.; Hearty, Fred R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; Sobeck, Jennifer S.; Wilson, John C. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Fleming, Scott W. [Computer Sciences Corporation, 3700 San Martin Dr, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Muna, Demitri [Department of Astronomy and the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Nguyen, Duy [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Schiavon, Ricardo P. [Gemini Observatory, 670 N. A’Ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Shetrone, Matthew, E-mail: dnidever@umich.edu [University of Texas at Austin, McDonald Observatory, Fort Davis, TX 79734 (United States)

2015-12-15

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III, explores the stellar populations of the Milky Way using the Sloan 2.5-m telescope linked to a high resolution (R ∼ 22,500), near-infrared (1.51–1.70 μm) spectrograph with 300 optical fibers. For over 150,000 predominantly red giant branch stars that APOGEE targeted across the Galactic bulge, disks and halo, the collected high signal-to-noise ratio (>100 per half-resolution element) spectra provide accurate (∼0.1 km s{sup −1}) RVs, stellar atmospheric parameters, and precise (≲0.1 dex) chemical abundances for about 15 chemical species. Here we describe the basic APOGEE data reduction software that reduces multiple 3D raw data cubes into calibrated, well-sampled, combined 1D spectra, as implemented for the SDSS-III/APOGEE data releases (DR10, DR11 and DR12). The processing of the near-IR spectral data of APOGEE presents some challenges for reduction, including automated sky subtraction and telluric correction over a 3°-diameter field and the combination of spectrally dithered spectra. We also discuss areas for future improvement.

The RIPASA score for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis: A comparison with the modified Alvarado score.

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz-Barrientos, C Z; Aquino-González, A; Heredia-Montaño, M; Navarro-Tovar, F; Pineda-Espinosa, M A; Espinosa de Santillana, I A

2018-02-06

Acute appendicitis is the first cause of surgical emergencies. It is still a difficult diagnosis to make, especially in young persons, the elderly, and in reproductive-age women, in whom a series of inflammatory conditions can have signs and symptoms similar to those of acute appendicitis. Different scoring systems have been created to increase diagnostic accuracy, and they are inexpensive, noninvasive, and easy to use and reproduce. The modified Alvarado score is probably the most widely used and accepted in emergency services worldwide. On the other hand, the RIPASA score was formulated in 2010 and has greater sensitivity and specificity. There are very few studies conducted in Mexico that compare the different scoring systems for appendicitis. The aim of our article was to compare the modified Alvarado score and the RIPASA score in the diagnosis of patients with abdominal pain and suspected acute appendicitis. An observational, analytic, and prolective study was conducted within the time frame of July 2002 and February 2014 at the Hospital Universitario de Puebla. The questionnaires used for the evaluation process were applied to the patients suspected of having appendicitis. The RIPASA score with 8.5 as the optimal cutoff value: ROC curve (area .595), sensitivity (93.3%), specificity (8.3%), PPV (91.8%), NPV (10.1%). Modified Alvarado score with 6 as the optimal cutoff value: ROC curve (area .719), sensitivity (75%), specificity (41.6%), PPV (93.7%), NPV (12.5%). The RIPASA score showed no advantages over the modified Alvarado score when applied to patients presenting with suspected acute appendicitis. Copyright © 2018 Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Efroymson, R.A.

2002-05-09

This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework, (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km{sup 2} between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of

Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Efroymson, R.A.

2002-01-01

This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework, (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km 2 between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

[Survival in acute renal failure with conventional therapy or continuous replacement therapy].

Science.gov (United States)

Santibáñez-Velázquez, Martín; Sánchez-Montoya, Felipe; Alvirde-Gutiérrez, Luis

2014-01-01

To know the survival rate in patients with RIFLE I and II stages on acute renal failure, treated with supportive care or continuous renal replacement therapy with PRISMA machine, at an intensive care unit. There were included patients of both sexes, aged 16 to 69 years, with acute renal failure in RIFLE I and II stages and score of scale APACHE II lower than 36 points. The sample studied was divided in two groups: a group was treated with supportive care, and the other group received continuous renal replacement therapy via PRISMA machine. We compared mortality between both groups and the association with the RIFLE stages with Pearson's chi-squared test. The average score of the scale APACHE I was 14 points, and the probability of death was 15 %. The patients with acute renal failure RIFLE I were 54.5 % and RIFLE II 45.5 %, with mortality of 30.4 % and 38.8 %, respectively. Patients in RIFLE I stage who received supportive care and continuous replacement therapy had non-statistical differences in mortality (p = 0.356). The mortality in patients with acute renal failure in RIFLE II stage treated with continuous replacement therapy was higher (p = 0.000). Because of its accessibility and lower mortality, supportive care should be the initial procedure in patients with acute renal failure in RIFLE I and II stages.

Influence of Malnutrition on Adverse Outcome in Children with Confirmed or Probable Viral Encephalitis: A Prospective Observational Study

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Priyanka Singh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital from August 2008 to August 2009 to explore the independent predictors of adverse outcome in the patients with confirmed/probable viral encephalitis. The primary outcome variable was the incidence of adverse outcomes defined as death or severe neurological deficit such as loss of speech, motor deficits, behavioural problems, blindness, and cognitive impairment. Patients with confirmed or probable viral encephalitis were classified into two groups based on their Z-score of weight-for-age as per WHO growth charts. Group I. Patients with confirmed or probable viral encephalitis with weight-for-age (W/A Z-scores below −2SD were classified as undernourished. Group II. Patients with confirmed or probable viral encephalitis were classified as having normal nutritional status (weight-for-age Z-score >−2SD. A total of 114 patients were classified as confirmed or probable viral encephalitis based on detailed investigations. On multivariate logistic regression, undernutrition (adjusted OR: 5.05; 95% CI: 1.92 to 13.44 and requirement of ventilation (adjusted OR: 6.75; 95% CI: 3.63 to 77.34 were independent predictors of adverse outcomes in these patients. Thus, the results from our study highlight that the association between undernutrition and adverse outcome could be extended to the patients with confirmed/probable viral encephalitis.

Moving beyond probabilities – Strength of knowledge characterisations applied to security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Askeland, Tore; Flage, Roger; Aven, Terje

2017-01-01

Many security experts avoid the concept of probability when assessing risk and vulnerabilities. Their main argument is that meaningful probabilities cannot be determined and they are consequently not useful for decision-making and security management. However, to give priority to some measures and not others, the likelihood dimension needs to be addressed in some way; the question is how. One approach receiving attention recently is to add strength of knowledge judgements to the probabilities and probability intervals generated. The judgements provide a qualitative labelling of how strong the knowledge supporting the probability assignments is. Criteria for such labelling have been developed, but not for a security setting. The purpose of this paper is to develop such criteria specific to security applications and, using some examples, to demonstrate their suitability. - Highlights: • The concept of probability is often avoided in security risk assessments. • We argue that the likelihood/probability dimension needs to be somehow addressed. • Probabilities should be supplemented by qualitative strength-of-knowledge scores. • Such criteria specific to security applications are developed. • Two examples are used to demonstrate the suitability of the suggested criteria.

Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

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Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

2014-01-01

This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

The Effect of a Monocular Helmet-Mounted Display on Aircrew Health: A Longitudinal Cohort Study of Apache AH Mk 1 Pilots -(Vision and Handedness)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-05-19

the day, night, and in adverse weather through the use of nose-mounted, forward-looking infrared (FLIR) pilotage and targeting sensors that provide a...sensor video and/or symbology to each crewmember via a helmet display unit (HDU). The HDU contains a 1-inch (in.) diameter cathode ray tube (CRT...American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus, 12(4): 365–369. Sale, D. F., and Lund, G. J. 1993. AH-64 Apache program update

HELIOS: transformation laws for multiple-collision probabilities with angular dependence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villarino, E.A.; Stamm'ler, R.J.J.

1996-01-01

In the lattice code HELIOS, neutron and gamma transport in a given system is treated by the CCCP (current-coupling collision-probability) method. The system is partitioned into space elements which are coupled by currents. Inside the space elements first-flight probabilities are used to obtain the coefficients of the coupling equation and of the equations for the fluxes. The calculation of these coefficients is expensive in CPU time on two scores: the evaluation of the first-flight probabilities, and the matrix inversion to convert these probabilities into the desired coefficients. If the cross sections of two geometrically equal space elements, or of the same element at an earlier burnup level, differ less than a small fraction, considerable CPU time can be saved by using transformation laws. Previously, such laws were derived for first-flight probabilities; here, they are derived for the multiple-collision coefficients of the CCCP equations. They avoid not only the expensive calculations of the first-flight probabilities, but also the subsequent matrix inversion. Various examples illustrate the savings achieved by using these new transformation laws - or by directly using earlier calculated coefficients, if the cross section differences are negligible. (author)

Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients Readmitted to The Medical Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Study in a Tertiary Hospital in Taiwan

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Ching-Lung Liu

2017-12-01

Conclusion: Readmitted ICU patients, especially the geriatric group, had a very poor prognosis. The worsened APACHE score might be a good predictor for readmission survival. The Charlson score was an important hospital survival predictor.

Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng

2018-04-15

This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Wilke, Andreas; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; McCanney, Paige; Barrett, H Clark

2016-03-01

Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns. In particular, we compared habitual gamblers to a matched sample of community members with regard to how much they exhibit the choice anomaly 'probability matching'. Probability matching describes the tendency to match response proportions to outcome probabilities when predicting binary outcomes. It leads to a lower expected accuracy than the maximizing strategy of predicting the most likely event on each trial. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching. So does impulsivity, which is also reported to be higher in gamblers. We therefore hypothesized that gamblers will exhibit more probability matching than non-gamblers, which was confirmed in a controlled laboratory experiment. Additionally, gamblers scored much lower than community members on the cognitive reflection task, which indicates higher impulsivity. This difference could account for the difference in probability matching between the samples. These results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on perceived illusory patterns.

Development of a spirometry T-score in the general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sei Won; Kim, Hyun Kuk; Baek, Seunghee; Jung, Ji-Ye; Kim, Young Sam; Lee, Jae Seung; Lee, Sang-Do; Mannino, David M; Oh, Yeon-Mok

2016-01-01

Spirometry values may be expressed as T-scores in standard deviation units relative to a reference in a young, normal population as an analogy to the T-score for bone mineral density. This study was performed to develop the spirometry T-score. T-scores were calculated from lambda-mu-sigma-derived Z-scores using a young, normal age reference. Three outcomes of all-cause death, respiratory death, and COPD death were evaluated in 9,101 US subjects followed for 10 years; an outcome of COPD-related health care utilization (COPD utilization) was evaluated in 1,894 Korean subjects followed for 4 years. The probability of all-cause death appeared to remain nearly zero until -1 of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) T-score but increased steeply where FEV1 T-score reached below -2.5. Survival curves for all-cause death, respiratory death, COPD death, and COPD utilization differed significantly among the groups when stratified by FEV1 T-score (Pspirometry T-score could predict all-cause death, respiratory death, COPD death, and COPD utilization.

Risk factors for peptic ulcer in patients with acute pancreatitis

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LIAO Juan

2013-07-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical characteristics of acute pancreatitis (AP associated with peptic ulcer (PU and to analyze the risk factors for PU in AP patients. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 156 AP patients who were admitted to our hospital from January 2008 to January 2012. All patients underwent gastroscopy within 48 h after admission to detect PU and Helicobacter pylori (Hp infection. The severity of AP was assessed by Ranson score, APACHE Ⅱ score, and CT severity index. The clinical characteristics of AP patients with or without PU were statistically analyzed using independent samples t-test and chi-square test. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for PU in AP patients. ResultsAmong the 156 AP patients, 88 (56.4% had PU, but only 28 (31.8% of the 88 cases were infected with Hp. Of the 28 patients, 22 had gastric ulcer, and 6 had both gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer. Of the 60 PU patients not infected with Hp, 25 had gastric ulcer, 26 had duodenal ulcer, and 9 had both gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer. The univariate logistic regression analysis showed that male gender, alcohol-induced pancreatitis, smoking, alcohol consumption, high triglyceride level, high C-reactive protein level, and APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 were significantly associated with PU in AP patients. However, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 was the independent risk factor for PU in AP patients (OR=8.54, 95% CI: 4.52-16.15, P＜0.01. ConclusionAP patients are susceptible to PU, but the infection rate of Hp is low. APACHE Ⅱ score ≥8 is the independent risk factor for PU in AP patients.

ASSESSMENT OF SEVERITY OF PERFORATED PERITONITIS USING MODIFIED APACHE II SCORE

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L. Rajeswar Reddy

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Acute generalised peritonitis from gastrointestinal hollow viscus perforation is a potentially life threatening condition. It is a common surgical emergency in many general surgical units in the developing countries and it is often associated with high morbidity and mortality. Grading the severity of acute peritonitis has assisted in no small way in decision making and has improved therapy in the management of severely ill patients. Empirically based risk assessment for important clinical events has been extremely useful in evaluating new therapies, in monitoring resources for effective use and improving quality of care. MATERIAL AND METHODS A prospective survey of patients with acute generalised peritonitis due to gastrointestinal perforation was carried out in general surgical wards of KIMS Hospital, Amalapuram during the period starting from July 2013-November 2016. The study population consisted of 50 consecutive patients who had laparotomy during the study period for acute peritonitis due to gastrointestinal perforation, after diagnostic conformation. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The most common cause of peritonitis in our study was perforated duodenal ulcer (31 cases, followed by appendicular perforation (7 cases, followed by stomach perforation (7 cases. Despite delay in seeking treatment, the overall mortality rate (14% was favourably comparable with other published series.

Dual Diagnosis and Suicide Probability in Poly-Drug Users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youssef, I. M.; Fahmy, M. T.; Haggag, W. L.; Mohamed, K. A.; Baalash, A. A.

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine the frequency of suicidal thoughts and suicidal probability among poly-substance abusers in Saudi population, and to examine the relation between dual diagnosis and suicidal thoughts. Study Design: Case control study. Place and Duration of Study: Al-Baha Psychiatric Hospital, Saudi Arabia, from May 2011 to Jun 2012. Methodology: Participants were 239 subjects, aged 18 - 45 years. We reviewed 122 individuals who fulfilled the DSM-IV-TR criteria of substance abuse for two or more substances, and their data were compared with that collected from 117 control persons. Results: Suicidal cases were highly present among poly-substance abusers 64.75 percentage. Amphetamine and cannabis were the most abused substances, (87.7 percentage and 70.49 percentage, respectively). A statistically significant association with suicidality was found with longer duration of substance abuse (p < 0.001), using alcohol (p=0.001), amphetamine (p=0.007), volatile substances (p=0.034), presence of comorbid psychiatric disorders (dual diagnosis) as substance induced mood disorder (p=0.001), schizo-affective disorder (p=0.017), major depressive disorders (p=0.001), antisocial (p=0.016) and borderline (p=0.005) personality disorder. Suicidal cases showed significant higher scores (p < 0.001) of suicide probability scale and higher scores in Beck depressive inventory (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Abusing certain substances for long duration, in addition to comorbid psychiatric disorders especially with disturbed-mood element, may trigger suicidal thoughts in poly-substance abusers. Depression and suicide probability is common consequences of substance abuse. (author)

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Prognostic Factors in Patients Hospitalized with Diabetic Ketoacidosis

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Avinash Agarwal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundDiabetic ketoacidosis (DKA is characterized by a biochemical triad of hyperglycemia, acidosis, and ketonemia. This condition is life-threatening despite improvements in diabetic care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and biochemical prognostic markers of DKA. We assessed correlations in prognostic markers with DKA-associated morbidity and mortality.MethodsTwo hundred and seventy patients that were hospitalized with DKA over a period of 2 years were evaluated clinically and by laboratory tests. Serial assays of serum electrolytes, glucose, and blood pH were performed, and clinical outcome was noted as either discharged to home or death.ResultsThe analysis indicated that significant predictors included sex, history of type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total leukocyte count, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II score, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, serum magnesium, serum phosphate, serum osmolality, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminases, serum glutamic pyruvic transaminases, serum albumin, which were further regressed and subjected to multivariate logistic regression (MLR analysis. The MLR analysis indicated that males were 7.93 times more likely to have favorable outcome compared with female patients (odds ratio, 7.93; 95% confidence interval, 3.99 to 13.51, while decreases in mean APACHE II score (14.83 and serum phosphate (4.38 at presentation may lead to 2.86- and 2.71-fold better outcomes, respectively, compared with higher levels (APACHE II score, 25.00; serum phosphate, 6.04.ConclusionSex, baseline biochemical parameters such as APACHE II score, and phosphate level were important predictors of the DKA-associated mortality.

Microalbuminuria in the intensive care unit: Clinical correlates and association with outcomes in 431 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, Peter; Czyz, John; Nightingale, Peter; Manji, Mav

2006-08-01

Comparison of urine albumin within 6 hrs of intensive care unit (ICU) admission with demography, clinical classification, outcome, inotrope/vasopressor requirement, clinical assessment of mortality risk, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores. Urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) was measured on ICU admission (ACR 1) and after 4-6 hrs (ACR 2). A 17-bed general ICU in a university teaching hospital. Unselected medical (206) and surgical (225) patients recruited prospectively. None. Bedside urine ACR was measured by nurses using a Bayer DCA 2000 analyzer and expressed in mg/mmol (reference range Po2/Fio2 ratio 48 hrs after ICU admission and positively correlated with duration of mechanical ventilation and ACR 1 with ICU stay. ACR 2 predicted mortality and ACR 1 inotrope requirement independent of clinical mortality risk assessment and APACHE II and SOFA scores. Urine albumin changes rapidly within the first 6 hrs following ICU admission and predicts ICU mortality and inotrope requirement as well as or better than APACHE II and SOFA scores. Serial urine albumin measurement may provide a means of monitoring the microvascular effects of systemic inflammation.

Nutech functional score: A novel scoring system to assess spinal cord injury patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Shroff, Geeta; Barthakur, Jitendra Kumar

2017-06-26

To develop a new scoring system, nutech functional scores (NFS) for assessing the patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). The conventional scale, American Spinal Injury Association's (ASIA) impairment scale is a measure which precisely describes the severity of the SCI. However, it has various limitations which lead to incomplete assessment of SCI patients. We have developed a 63 point scoring system, i . e ., NFS for patients suffering with SCI. A list of symptoms either common or rare that were found to be associated with SCI was recorded for each patient. On the basis of these lists, we have developed NFS. These lists served as a base to prepare NFS, a 63 point positional (each symptom is sub-graded and get points based on position) and directional (moves in direction BAD → GOOD) scoring system. For non-progressive diseases, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 denote worst, bad, moderate, good and best (normal), respectively. NFS for SCI has been divided into different groups based on the affected part of the body being assessed, i . e ., motor assessment (shoulders, elbow, wrist, fingers-grasp, fingers-release, hip, knee, ankle and toe), sensory assessment, autonomic assessment, bed sore assessment and general assessment. As probability based studies required a range of (-1, 1) or at least the range of (0, 1) to be useful for real world analysis, the grades were converted to respective numeric values. NFS can be considered as a unique tool to assess the improvement in patients with SCI as it overcomes the limitations of ASIA impairment scale.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens.

Science.gov (United States)

Higham, Dean G; Hopkins, Will G; Pyne, David B; Anson, Judith M

2014-05-01

Identification of performance indicators related to scoring points and winning is needed to inform tactical approaches to international rugby sevens competition. The aim of this study was to characterize team performance indicators in international rugby sevens and quantify their relationship with a team's points scored and probability of winning. Performance indicators of each team during 196 matches of the 2011/2012 International Rugby Board Sevens World Series were modeled for their linear relationships with points scored and likelihood of winning within (changes in team values from match to match) and between (differences between team values averaged over all matches) teams. Relationships were evaluated as the change and difference in points and probability of winning associated with a two within- and between-team standard deviations increase in performance indicator values. Inferences about relationships were assessed using a smallest meaningful difference of one point and a 10% probability of a team changing the outcome of a close match. All indicators exhibited high within-team match-to-match variability (intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.00 to 0.23). Excluding indicators representing points-scoring actions or events occurring on average less than once per match, 13 of 17 indicators had substantial clear within-team relationships with points scored and/or likelihood of victory. Relationships between teams were generally similar in magnitude but unclear. Tactics that increase points scoring and likelihood of winning should be based on greater ball possession, fewer rucks, mauls, turnovers, penalties and free kicks, and limited passing. Key pointsSuccessful international rugby sevens teams tend to maintain ball possession; more frequently avoid taking the ball into contact; concede fewer turnovers, penalties and free kicks; retain possession in scrums, rucks and mauls; and limit passing the ball.Selected performance indicators may be used to

Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

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Paul Lehner

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

Assessment of private security guards by Suicide Probability Scale and Brief Symptom Inventory.

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Dogan, Bulent; Canturk, Gurol; Canturk, Nergis; Guney, Sevgi; Özcan, Ebru

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of suicide probability and relevant sociodemographic features and to provide information for preventing suicide in private security guards working under the stressful conditions and continuous exposure to the negative and traumatic life events. 200 private security guards and 200 personnels of Ankara University participated in the study. A sociodemographic information questionnaire, the Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) and the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) were used to collect the data. Gender, marital status, income, religious beliefs, experiencing a life-threatening situation, history of a suicide attempt, smoking and not having a chronic disease caused statistically significant differences in the scores for SPS between the private security guards group and the controls. Moreover there was a statistically significant positive correlation between the total scores of the subscales of SPS and the total scores of BSI. Like police officers and gendarmes, private security guards are at high risk of committing and attempting suicide because of being at stressful work settings and also suffering from secondary trauma. It is required that they should be aware of their tendency to commit suicide and have regular psychiatric screenings.

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

2014-01-01

To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age <18 years, the records of 1543 patients were analyzed using appropriate statistical methods. Both models overpredicted mortality in this cohort [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.06 using APACHE II and SAPS II respectively]. Patterns of predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) and 0.83 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) for APACHE II and SAPS II, respectively). There were wide variations in SMRs calculated for subgroups based on International Classification of Disease, 10(th) edition (standard deviation ± 0.27 for APACHE II and 0.30 for SAPS II). Lack of fit of data to the models and wide variation in SMRs in subgroups put a limitation on utility of these models as tools for assessing quality of care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

Factors Predicting Ventilator Dependence in Patients with Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Cheng Tseng

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To determine risk factors associated with ventilator dependence in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP. Study Design. A retrospective study was conducted at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, from January 1, 2007 to January 31, 2008. Methods. This study evaluated 163 adult patients (aged ≥18 years. Eligibility was evaluated according to the criterion for VAP, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA score, Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II score. Oxygenation index, underlying comorbidities, septic shock status, previous tracheostomy status, and factors related to pneumonia were collected for analysis. Results. Of the 163 VAP patients in the study, 90 patients survived, yielding a mortality rate of 44.8%. Among the 90 surviving patients, only 36 (40% had been weaned off ventilators at the time of discharge. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify underlying factors such as congestive cardiac failure (P=0.009, initial high oxygenation index value (P=0.04, increased SOFA scores (P=0.01, and increased APACHE II scores (P=0.02 as independent predictors of ventilator dependence. Results from the Kaplan-Meier method indicate that initial therapy with antibiotics could increase the ventilator weaning rate (log Rank test, P<0.001. Conclusions. Preexisting cardiopulmonary function, high APACHE II and SOFA scores, and high oxygenation index were the strongest predictors of ventilator dependence. Initial empiric antibiotic treatment can improve ventilator weaning rates at the time of discharge.

Predicting asthma in preschool children with asthma-like symptoms : Validating and updating the PIAMA risk score

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hafkamp-de Groen, Esther; Lingsma, Hester F.; Caudri, Daan; Levie, Deborah; Wijga, Alet; Koppelman, Gerard H.; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W. V.; Smit, Henriette A.; Kerkhof, Marjan; Moll, Henriette A.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Jongste, Johan C.; Raat, Hein

2013-01-01

Background: The Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy (PIAMA) risk score predicts the probability of having asthma at school age among preschool children with suggestive symptoms. Objective: We sought to externally validate the PIAMA risk score at different ages and in ethnic and

Methods of scoring induced chromosome structural changes in barley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicoleff, H.; Gecheff, K.

1976-01-01

In barley, a material widely used in mutation and chromosomal aberration studies, the method most frequently used for scoring induced chromosomal changes is still anaphase analysis. In this paper, data obtained after treatment of barley with gamma-rays and ethyleneimine (EI) and comparative scoring of aberrations in metaphase and anaphase are reported and discussed. It is evident that the metaphase aberrations induced by gamma-rays and ethyleneimine, due probably to their specific location, showed a differential manifestation during anaphase. Thus, after treatment with ethyleneimine a great portion of the induced aberrations, being located preferentially at the centromere regions, gave no scorable bridges, and an apparent excess of fragments was observed at anaphase. After gamma-irradiation the differences between metaphase and anaphase scoring were mainly due to a large portion of fragments escaping detection

A Review of Propensity-Score Methods and Their Use in Cardiovascular Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Deb, Saswata; Austin, Peter C; Tu, Jack V; Ko, Dennis T; Mazer, C David; Kiss, Alex; Fremes, Stephen E

2016-02-01

Observational studies using propensity-score methods have been increasing in the cardiovascular literature because randomized controlled trials are not always feasible or ethical. However, propensity-score methods can be confusing, and the general audience may not fully understand the importance of this technique. The objectives of this review are to describe (1) the fundamentals of propensity score methods, (2) the techniques to assess for propensity-score model adequacy, (3) the 4 major methods for using the propensity score (matching, stratification, covariate adjustment, and inverse probability of treatment weighting [IPTW]) using examples from previously published cardiovascular studies, and (4) the strengths and weaknesses of these 4 techniques. Our review suggests that matching or IPTW using the propensity score have shown to be most effective in reducing bias of the treatment effect. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An introduction to probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Roussas, George G

2003-01-01

"The text is wonderfully written and has the mostcomprehensive range of exercise problems that I have ever seen." - Tapas K. Das, University of South Florida"The exposition is great; a mixture between conversational tones and formal mathematics; the appropriate combination for a math text at [this] level. In my examination I could find no instance where I could improve the book." - H. Pat Goeters, Auburn, University, Alabama* Contains more than 200 illustrative examples discussed in detail, plus scores of numerical examples and applications* Chapters 1-8 can be used independently for an introductory course in probability* Provides a substantial number of proofs

Validation of acute physiologic and chronic health evaluation II scoring system software developed at The Aga Khan University, Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Hashmi

2016-01-01

Conclusion: APACHE II software available on the hospital′s intranet has satisfactory calibration and discrimination and interrater reliability is good when compared with the gold standard manual method.

Scoring and Classifying Examinees Using Measurement Decision Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawrence M. Rudner

2009-04-01

Full Text Available This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1 the classification accuracy of tests scored using decision theory; (2 the effectiveness of different sequential testing procedures; and (3 the number of items needed to make a classification. A large percentage of examinees can be classified accurately with very few items using decision theory. A Java Applet for self instruction and software for generating, calibrating and scoring MDT data are provided.

Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana de Oliveira Freitas Miranda

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied.

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

2016-11-01

ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

Interactive design of probability density functions for shape grammars

KAUST Repository

Dang, Minh

2015-11-02

A shape grammar defines a procedural shape space containing a variety of models of the same class, e.g. buildings, trees, furniture, airplanes, bikes, etc. We present a framework that enables a user to interactively design a probability density function (pdf) over such a shape space and to sample models according to the designed pdf. First, we propose a user interface that enables a user to quickly provide preference scores for selected shapes and suggest sampling strategies to decide which models to present to the user to evaluate. Second, we propose a novel kernel function to encode the similarity between two procedural models. Third, we propose a framework to interpolate user preference scores by combining multiple techniques: function factorization, Gaussian process regression, autorelevance detection, and l1 regularization. Fourth, we modify the original grammars to generate models with a pdf proportional to the user preference scores. Finally, we provide evaluations of our user interface and framework parameters and a comparison to other exploratory modeling techniques using modeling tasks in five example shape spaces: furniture, low-rise buildings, skyscrapers, airplanes, and vegetation.

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Statin use and kidney cancer outcomes: A propensity score analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayan, Madhur; Finelli, Antonio; Jewett, Michael A S; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2016-11-01

Studies evaluating the association between statin use and survival outcomes in renal cell carcinoma have demonstrated conflicting results. Our objective was to evaluate this association in a large clinical cohort by using propensity score methods to reduce confounding from measured covariates. We performed a retrospective review of 893 patients undergoing nephrectomy for unilateral, M0 renal cell carcinoma between 2000 and 2014 at a tertiary academic center. Inverse probability of treatment weights were derived from a propensity score model based on clinical, surgical, and pathological characteristics. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between statin use and disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival in the sample weighted by the inverse probability of treatment weights. A secondary analysis was performed matching statin users 1:1 to statin nonusers on the propensity score. Of the 893 patients, 259 (29%) were on statins at the time of surgery. Median follow-up was 47 months (interquartile range: 20-80). Statin use was not significantly associated with disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.65-1.81), cancer-specific survival (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.40-2.01), or overall survival (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.55-1.44). Similar results were observed when using propensity score matching. The present study found no significant association between statin use and kidney cancer outcomes. Population-based studies are needed to further evaluate the role of statins in kidney cancer therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Protein single-model quality assessment by feature-based probability density functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Renzhi; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-04-04

Protein quality assessment (QA) has played an important role in protein structure prediction. We developed a novel single-model quality assessment method-Qprob. Qprob calculates the absolute error for each protein feature value against the true quality scores (i.e. GDT-TS scores) of protein structural models, and uses them to estimate its probability density distribution for quality assessment. Qprob has been blindly tested on the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM-NOVEL server. The official CASP result shows that Qprob ranks as one of the top single-model QA methods. In addition, Qprob makes contributions to our protein tertiary structure predictor MULTICOM, which is officially ranked 3rd out of 143 predictors. The good performance shows that Qprob is good at assessing the quality of models of hard targets. These results demonstrate that this new probability density distribution based method is effective for protein single-model quality assessment and is useful for protein structure prediction. The webserver of Qprob is available at: http://calla.rnet.missouri.edu/qprob/. The software is now freely available in the web server of Qprob.

East and Central African Journal of Surgery Volume 10 Number 2 ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

generalized septic peritonitis were analyzed in which the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health. Evaluation (APACHE) II score was over 16. This score computates predicted mortality according to temperature, mean blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, pO2 or PH, Na+, K+,. Creatinine, Haematocrit, WBC, Glasgow Coma.

Application of the ATLAS score for evaluating the severity of Clostridium difficile infection in teaching hospitals in Mexico

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Raúl Hernández-García

2015-07-01

Conclusion: The ATLAS score is a potentially useful tool for the routine evaluation of patients at the time of C. difficile infection diagnosis. At 30 days post-diagnosis, patients with a score of ≤3 points had 100% survival while all of those with scores ≥8 died. Patients with scores between 4 and 7 points had a greater probability of colectomy with an overall cure rate of 70.1%.

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

Remote sensing analysis of vegetation at the San Carlos Apache Reservation, Arizona and surrounding area

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, Laura M.; Middleton, Barry R.; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Mapping of vegetation types is of great importance to the San Carlos Apache Tribe and their management of forestry and fire fuels. Various remote sensing techniques were applied to classify multitemporal Landsat 8 satellite data, vegetation index, and digital elevation model data. A multitiered unsupervised classification generated over 900 classes that were then recoded to one of the 16 generalized vegetation/land cover classes using the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) map as a guide. A supervised classification was also run using field data collected in the SWReGAP project and our field campaign. Field data were gathered and accuracy assessments were generated to compare outputs. Our hypothesis was that a resulting map would update and potentially improve upon the vegetation/land cover class distributions of the older SWReGAP map over the 24,000  km2 study area. The estimated overall accuracies ranged between 43% and 75%, depending on which method and field dataset were used. The findings demonstrate the complexity of vegetation mapping, the importance of recent, high-quality-field data, and the potential for misleading results when insufficient field data are collected.

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

The assessment of Trabecular bone score to improve the sensitivity of FRAX in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Tatiana O. Yalochkina

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Aim. To estimate the trabecular bone score (TBS for evaluation of fracture probability in order to make decisions about starting osteoporosis treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Materials and methods. We obtained the bone mineral density (BMD and trabecular bone score (TBS using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (iDXA in patients with T2DM (with and without a history of osteoporotic fractures versus the control group. Before and after TBS measurements we assessed the ten-year probability of fracture using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX. Results. We enrolled 48 patients with T2DM, including 17 with a history of low-traumatic fracture, 31 patients without fractures and 29 subjects of a control group. BMD was higher in patients with T2DM compared to the control group at L1–L4 (mean T-score 0.44, 95% CI -3.2 – 4.9 vs mean T-score 0.33, 95% CI -2.9 – 3.0 in a control group p=0.052 and Total Hip (mean T-score 0.51, 95% CI -2.1 – 3.0 vs mean T-score -0.03, 95% CI -1.4 – 1.2 in a control group p=0,025. The TBS and 10-year probability of fracture (FRAX was not different in patients with T2DM versus the control group. However, when the TBS was entered as an additional risk factor, the 10-year probability of fracture became higher in patients with T2DM (10-year probability of fracture in T2DM- 8.68, 95% CI 0.3-25.0 versus 6.68, 95% CI 0.4–15.0 in control group, p=0.04. Among patients with diabetes with and without fractures the FRAX score was higher in subjects with fractures, but no difference was found in regards to BMD or TBS. Entering BMD and TBS values into the FRAX tool in subjects with diabetes and fractures decreased the FRAX score. However, patients with low-traumatic fractures should be treated for osteoporosis without a BMD, TBS or FRAX assessment. Conclusion. TBS improves the results of FRAX assessment in patients with T2DM and should be entered while evaluating FRAX in patients with T2DM. However

Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

Science.gov (United States)

Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

2018-05-01

Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

Identification of enhanced cytokine generation following sepsis. Dream of magic bullet for mortality prediction and therapeutic evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Hamishehkar

2010-09-01

Full Text Available "n  "nBackground and the purpose of the study: sepsis is one of the most widespread and lethal disease in Intensive Care Units (ICU. Based on pathophisyology of sepsis, it seems that routine laboratory tests combined with analysis of pro-inflammatory cytokines plasma levels, help clinicians to have more information about disease progress and its correct management. "nMethods:This was a prospective observational study to determine the predictive role of Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-α, Interleukin (IL-1β and IL-6 as three main pro-inflammatory cytokines and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA as two scoring systems in mortality of critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Fifty and five patients with criteria of severe sepsis were included in this study. An exclusion criterion was post Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR status. Cytokines (TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-6 were assayed in the first, third and seventh days in blood of patients. Results and major conclusion:Among three measured cytokines, sequential levels of TNF-α and IL-6 showed significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors. IL-6 had a good correlation with outcome and scoring systems during the period of this study. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve indicated that APACHE II (0.858, 0.848, 0.861 and IL-6 (0.797, 0.799, 0.899 had discriminative power in prediction of mortality during sequental measured days. Multiple logestic regression analysis identified that evaluation of APACHE II and TNF-α in the first day and APACHE II and IL-6 in the third and seventh days of severe septic patients are independent outcome predictors. Results of this study suggest that IL-6 and APACHE II are useful cytokine and scoring systems respectively in prediction of mortality and clinical evaluation of severe septic patients.

Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

Science.gov (United States)

Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

2013-01-01

Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

Use of soft probabilities in evaluating physical-security systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, J.N.

1982-03-01

The complexity of evaluating how a physical security system would perform against a broad array of threat situations dictates the use by an inspector of methods which are not completely rigorous. Intuition and judgment based on experience have a large role to play. The use of soft probabilities can give meaningful results when the nature of the situation to which they are applied is sufficiently understood. Although the scoring method proposed is based on complex theory, it is feasible to apply on an intuitive basis. 6 figures

Direct modeling of regression effects for transition probabilities in the progressive illness-death model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Azarang, Leyla; Scheike, Thomas; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

2017-01-01

In this work, we present direct regression analysis for the transition probabilities in the possibly non-Markov progressive illness–death model. The method is based on binomial regression, where the response is the indicator of the occupancy for the given state along time. Randomly weighted score...

Spine-hip T-score difference predicts major osteoporotic fracture risk independent of FRAX(®): a population-based report from CAMOS.

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, William D; Kovacs, Christopher S; Olszynski, Wojciech P; Towheed, Tanveer; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Prior, Jerilynn C; Josse, Robert G; Jamal, Sophie A; Kreiger, Nancy; Goltzman, David

2011-01-01

The WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX(®)) estimates an individual's 10-yr major osteoporotic and hip fracture probabilities. When bone mineral density (BMD) is included in the FRAX calculation, only the femoral neck measurement can be used. Recently, a procedure was reported for adjusting major osteoporotic fracture probability from FRAX with femoral neck BMD based on the difference (offset) between the lumbar spine and the femoral neck T-score values. The objective of the current analysis was to independently evaluate this algorithm in a population-based cohort of 4575 women and 1813 men aged 50 yr and older from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. For women and men combined, there was a 15% (95% confidence interval 7-24%) increase in major osteoporotic fracture risk for each offset T-score after adjusting for FRAX probability calculated with femoral neck BMD. The effect was stronger in women than men, but a significant sex interaction was not detected. Among the full cohort, 5.5% had their risk category reclassified after using the offset adjustment. Sex- and age-dependent offsets (equivalent to an offset based on Z-scores) showed improved risk classification among individuals designated to be at moderate risk with the conventional FRAX probability measurement. In summary, the T-score difference between the lumbar spine and femoral neck is an independent risk factor for major osteoporotic fractures that is independent of the FRAX probability calculated with femoral neck BMD. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

2017-01-01

significantly due to risk aversion. We characterize an approach for eliciting the entire subjective belief distribution that is minimally biased due to risk aversion. We offer simulated examples to demonstrate the intuition of our approach. We also provide theory to formally characterize our framework. And we...... provide experimental evidence which corroborates our theoretical results. We conclude that for empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one...

Early onset of organ failure is the best predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis El fracaso orgánico precoz como mejor factor predictivo de mortalidad en la pancreatitis aguda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Poves Prim

2004-10-01

Full Text Available Background: APACHE II is a multifactorial scoring system for predicting severity in acute pancreatitis (AP. Organ failure (OF has been correlated with mortality in AP. Objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of APACHE II as an early predictor of severity in AP, its correlation with OF, and the relevance of an early establishment of OF during the course of AP. Patients and methods: from January 1999 to November 2001, 447 consecutive cases of AP were studied. APACHE II scores and Atlanta criteria were used for defining severity and OF. Results: twenty-five percent of patients had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP. APACHE II at 24 h after admission showed a sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of 52, 77, 46, and 84%, respectively, for predicting severity. Mortality for SAP was 20.5%. Seventy percent of patients who developed OF did so within the first 24 hours of admission, and their mortality was 52%. Mortality was statistically significant (p Introducción: el APACHE II se ha utilizado como factor predictivo de gravedad en la pancratitis aguda (PA. La instauración de fracaso orgánico (FO en la PA se correlaciona con una mayor mortalidad. Objetivos: evaluar la utilidad del APACHE II como factor predictivo precoz de gravedad en la PA, su correlación con el FO y la relevancia del establecimiento precoz del FO en la PA. Pacientes y métodos: desde enero de 1999 hasta noviembre de 2001 se estudiaron 447 pacientes ingresados consecutivamente por PA. Se utilizó el sistema APACHE II y los criterios de Atlanta para evaluar la gravedad. Resultados: el 25% de los pacientes presentaron una pancreatitis aguda grave (PAG. El APACHE II a las 24 horas del ingreso mostró una sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo y negativo del 52, 77, 46 y 84%, respectivamente, como marcador de gravedad. La mortalidad global de la PAG fue del 20,5%. El 70% de los pacientes que presentaron FO lo hicieron en las primeras 24 horas

Educational Research with Real-World Data: Reducing Selection Bias with Propensity Scores

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Jill L. Adelson

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Often it is infeasible or unethical to use random assignment in educational settings to study important constructs and questions. Hence, educational research often uses observational data, such as large-scale secondary data sets and state and school district data, and quasi-experimental designs. One method of reducing selection bias in estimations of treatment effects is propensity score analysis. This method reduces a large number of pretreatment covariates to a single scalar function and allows researchers to compare subjects with similar probability to receive the treatment. This article provides an introduction to propensity score analysis and stratification, an example illustrating its use, and suggestions for using propensity score analysis in educational research.

Nursing workload in a trauma intensive care unit

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Luana Loppi Goulart

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Severely injured patients with multiple and conflicting injuries present themselves to nursing professionals at critical care units faced with care management challenges. The goal of the present study is to evaluate nursing workload and verify the correlation between workload and the APACHE II severity index. It is a descriptive study, conducted in the Trauma Intensive Care Unit of a teaching hospital. We used the Nursing Activities Score and APACHE II as instruments. The sample comprised 32 patients, of which most were male, young adults, presenting polytrauma, coming from the Reference Emergency Unit, in surgical treatment, and discharged from the ICU. The average obtained on the Nursing Activities Score instrument was 72% during hospitalization periods. The data displayed moderate correlation between workload and patient severity. In other words, the higher the score, the higher the patient’s mortality risk. doi: 10.5216/ree.v16i2.22922.

Clinical effects of low-molecular-weight heparin combined with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Tropical Journal of Pharmaceutical Research August 2016; 15 (8): 1787-1792 ... Keywords: Acute pancreatitis, Low-molecular-weight heparin, Multiple organ function syndrome,. APACHE II score ... mediators by lowering the expression of.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

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Michael F Sloma

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2017-11-01

Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package.

Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghani, Amal Abdel; Tohamy, Khalid Y.

2009-01-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score ( 1 2). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

Validity of bacterial pneumonia score for predicting bacteremia in children with pneumonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosalia Theodosia Daten Beyeng

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Background Bacteremia in children with pneumonia reflects a severe condition, with longer duration of hospital care and potentially lethal complications. Early detection of bacteremia in patients with pneumonia may reduce serious complications. Few bacteremia screening tools have been widely used in chidren with pneumonia. One of those tools is the bacterial pneumonia score (BPS. Objective To assess the validity of the bacterial pneumonia score for predicting bacteremia in pediatric patients with pneumonia. Methods A diagnostic test was conducted on children aged 1 to 60 months hospitalized with pneumonia from December 2009 to August 2010. Subjects were collected consecutively. Pneumonia was diagnosed using the World Healt Organization (WHO criteria. Subjects underwent complete blood counts and blood culture examinations at admission. Statistical analyses included sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV/NPV, positive and negative likelihood ratio (PLR/NLR, and post-test probability. Results Our study included 229 children. Based on BPS with a cut-off score of ≥ 4, the sensitivity was 83.3%, specificity 49.7%, PPV 8.4%, NPV 98.2%, PLR 1.66, NLR 0.31, and post-test probability 8.4% for detecting bacteremia in pediatric pneumonia patients. Conclusion BPS can not be used for predicting bacteremia in pediatric patients with pneumonia.

The Apache Longbow-Hellfire Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground: Ecological Risk Assessment for Missile Firing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Daniel Steven; Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Hargrove, William Walter; Suter, Glenn; Pater, Larry

2008-01-01

A multiple stressor risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework. The focus was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, M60-A1 tanks. This paper describes the ecological risk assessment for the missile launch and detonation. The primary stressor associated with this activity was sound. Other minor stressors included the detonation impact, shrapnel, and fire. Exposure to desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) was quantified using the Army sound contour program BNOISE2, as well as distances from the explosion to deer. Few effects data were available from related studies. Exposure-response models for the characterization of effects consisted of human 'disturbance' and hearing damage thresholds in units of C-weighted decibels (sound exposure level) and a distance-based No Observed Adverse Effects Level for moose and cannonfire. The risk characterization used a weight-of-evidence approach and concluded that risk to mule deer behavior from the missile firing was likely for a negligible number of deer, but that no risk to mule deer abundance and reproduction is expected

Data collection and field experiments at the Apache Leap research site. Annual report, May 1995--1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodhouse, E.G.; Bassett, R.L.; Neuman, S.P.; Chen, G.

1997-08-01

This report documents the research performed during the period May 1995-May 1996 for a project of the U.S. Regulatory Commission (sponsored contract NRC-04-090-051) by the University of Arizona. The project manager for this research in Thomas J. Nicholson, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objectives of this research were to examine hypotheses and test alternative conceptual models concerning unsaturated flow and transport through fractured rock, and to design and execute confirmatory field and laboratory experiments to test these hypotheses and conceptual models at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. Each chapter in this report summarizes research related to a specific set of objectives and can be read and interpreted as a separate entity. Topics include: crosshole pneumatic and gaseous tracer field and modeling experiments designed to help validate the applicability of contiuum geostatistical and stochastic concepts, theories, models, and scaling relations relevant to unsaturated flow and transport in fractured porous tuffs; use of geochemistry and aquifer testing to evaluate fracture flow and perching mechanisms; investigations of 234 U/ 238 U fractionation to evaluate leaching selectivity; and transport and modeling of both conservative and non-conservative tracers

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease in ethnically diverse highly educated individuals: an analysis of the NACC database.

Science.gov (United States)

Spering, Cynthia C; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A; Menon, Chloe V; Hall, James R; O'Bryant, Sid E

2012-08-01

To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O'Bryant and colleagues (O'Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963-967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 "Other," and 18 of unknown origin. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals

Role of physician perception of patient smile on pretest probability assessment for acute pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kline, Jeffrey A; Neumann, Dawn; Hall, Cassandra L; Capito, Jacob

2017-02-01

Many clinicians use a global visual interpretation of patient appearance to decide if a patient looks sick or not. For patients with suspected acute pulmonary embolism (PE), we tested the relationship between visual appearance of a happy patient facial affect and probability of PE+ on CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA). Eligible patients were selected by usual care to undergo CTPA, the criterion standard for PE+ or PE-. Prior to CTPA result, trained study personnel obtained physician pretest probability using the gestalt method (visual analogue scale, 0%-100%), the Wells score (0-12) and physicians' impression of whether the patient smiled during the initial examination (smile+). Patients' faces were also video recorded and analysed with an automated neural network-based algorithm (Noldus FaceReader) for happy affect. Of the 208 patients enrolled, 27 were PE+ and smile+ was more frequent in patients with PE+ than PE-, a finding confirmed by the Noldus. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of smile was low, and physicians overestimated presence of an alternative diagnosis more likely to PE with smile+ than smile- patients in patients with true PE. As a result, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was lower for the Wells score in smile+ patients. However, the physicians' mean gestalt estimate of PE did not differ with smile status, nor did smile status affect the AUROC for gestalt. In patients with suspected PE, physician recollection of patients' smile+ was more common in PE+ patients, and was associated with a less accurate Wells score, primarily because physicians overestimated probability of alternative diagnosis. However, the overall diagnostic accuracy of physicians' gestalt did not differ with perceived smile status. These data suggest that the patients' smile had less effect on the numeric gestalt pretest probability assessment than on the binary decision about an alternative diagnosis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

The Syrian civil war: The experience of the Surgical Intensive Care Units.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozdogan, Hatice Kaya; Karateke, Faruk; Ozdogan, Mehmet; Cetinalp, Sibel; Ozyazici, Sefa; Gezercan, Yurdal; Okten, Ali Ihsan; Celik, Muge; Satar, Salim

2016-01-01

Since the civilian war in Syria began, thousands of seriously injured trauma patients from Syria were brought to Turkey for emergency operations and/or postoperative intensive care. The aim of this study was to present the demographics and clinical features of the wounded patients in Syrian civil war admitted to the surgical intensive care units in a tertiary care centre. The records of 80 trauma patients admitted to the Anaesthesia, General Surgery and Neurosurgery ICUs between June 1, 2012 and July 15, 2014 were included in the study. The data were reviewed regarding the demographics, time of presentation, place of reference, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and Injury Severity Score (ISS), surgical procedures, complications, length of stay and mortality. A total of 80 wounded patients (70 males and 10 females) with a mean age of 28.7 years were admitted to surgical ICUs. The most frequent cause of injury was gunshot injury. The mean time interval between the occurrence of injury and time of admission was 2.87 days. Mean ISS score on admission was 21, and mean APACHE II score was 15.7. APACHE II scores of non-survivors were significantly increased compared with those of survivors (P=0.001). No significant differences was found in the age, ISS, time interval before admission, length of stay in ICU, rate of surgery before or after admission. The most important factor affecting mortality in this particular trauma-ICU patient population from Syrian civil war was the physiological condition of patients on admission. Rapid transport and effective initial and on-road resuscitation are critical in decreasing the mortality rate in civil wars and military conflicts.

From scores to face templates: a model-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, Pranab; Sarkar, Sudeep; Kasturi, Rangachar

2007-12-01

three different levels of score quantization, we achieve 69 percent, 68 percent and 49 percent probability of break-in, indicating the robustness of our proposed scheme to score quantization. We also show that the proposed reconstruction scheme has 47 percent more probability of breaking in as a randomly chosen target subject for the commercial system as compared to a hill climbing approach with the same number of attempts. Given that the proposed template reconstruction method uses distinct face templates to reconstruct faces, this work exposes a more severe form of vulnerability than a hill climbing kind of attack where incrementally different versions of the same face are used. Also, the ability of the proposed approach to reconstruct actual face templates of the users increases privacy concerns in biometric systems.

Estimating Effect Sizes and Expected Replication Probabilities from GWAS Summary Statistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holland, Dominic; Wang, Yunpeng; Thompson, Wesley K

2016-01-01

Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS) result in millions of summary statistics ("z-scores") for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with phenotypes. These rich datasets afford deep insights into the nature and extent of genetic contributions to complex phenotypes such as psychiatric......-scores, as such knowledge would enhance causal SNP and gene discovery, help elucidate mechanistic pathways, and inform future study design. Here we present a parsimonious methodology for modeling effect sizes and replication probabilities, relying only on summary statistics from GWAS substudies, and a scheme allowing...... for estimating the degree of polygenicity of the phenotype and predicting the proportion of chip heritability explainable by genome-wide significant SNPs in future studies with larger sample sizes. We apply the model to recent GWAS of schizophrenia (N = 82,315) and putamen volume (N = 12,596), with approximately...

Morphologic and functional scoring of cystic fibrosis lung disease using MRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eichinger, Monika; Optazaite, Daiva-Elzbieta; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Hintze, Christian; Biederer, Jürgen; Niemann, Anne; Mall, Marcus A.; Wielpütz, Mark O.; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Puderbach, Michael

2012-01-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) gains increasing importance in the assessment of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The aim of this study was to develop a morpho-functional MR-scoring-system and to evaluate its intra- and inter-observer reproducibility and clinical practicability to monitor CF lung disease over a broad severity range from infancy to adulthood. 35 CF patients with broad age range (mean 15.3 years; range 0.5–42) were examined by morphological and functional MRI. Lobe based analysis was performed for parameters bronchiectasis/bronchial-wall-thickening, mucus plugging, abscesses/sacculations, consolidations, special findings and perfusion defects. The maximum global score was 72. Two experienced radiologists scored the images at two time points (interval 10 weeks). Upper and lower limits of agreement, concordance correlation coefficients (CCC), total deviation index and coverage probability were calculated for global, morphology, function, component and lobar scores. Global scores ranged from 6 to 47. Intra- and inter-reader agreement for global scores were good (CCC: 0.98 (R1), 0.94 (R2), 0.97 (R1/R2)) and were comparable between high and low scores. Our results indicate that the proposed morpho-functional MR-scoring-system is reproducible and applicable for semi-quantitative evaluation of a large spectrum of CF lung disease severity. This scoring-system can be applied for the routine assessment of CF lung disease and maybe as endpoint for clinical trials.

Survival in Patients Receiving Prolonged Ventilation: Factors that Influence Outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. James Mamary

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background Prolonged mechanical ventilation is increasingly common. It is expensive and associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Our objective is to comprehensively characterize patients admitted to a Ventilator Rehabilitation Unit (VRU for weaning and identify characteristics associated with survival. Methods 182 consecutive patients over 3.5 years admitted to Temple University Hospital (TUH VRU were characterized. Data were derived from comprehensive chart review and a prospectively collected computerized database. Survival was determined by hospital records and social security death index and mailed questionnaires. Results Upon admission to the VRU, patients were hypoalbuminemic (albumin 2.3 ± 0.6 g/dL, anemic (hemoglobin 9.6 ± 1.4 g/dL, with moderate severity of illness (APACHE II score 10.7 + 4.1, and multiple comorbidities (Charlson index 4.3 + 2.3. In-hospital mortality (19% was related to a higher Charlson Index score ( P = 0.006; OR 1.08-1.6, and APACHE II score ( P = 0.016; OR 1.03-1.29. In-hospital mortality was inversely related to admission albumin levels ( P = 0.023; OR 0.17-0.9. The presence of COPD as a comorbid illness or primary determinant of respiratory failure and higher VRU admission APACHE II score predicted higher long-term mortality. Conversely, higher VRU admission hemoglobin was associated with better long term survival (OR 0.57-0.90; P = 0.0006. Conclusion Patients receiving prolonged ventilation are hypoalbuminemic, anemic, have moderate severity of illness, and multiple comorbidities. Survival relates to these factors and the underlying illness precipitating respiratory failure, especially COPD.

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Comparison of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome between monomicrobial and polymicrobial Pseudomonas aeruginosa nosocomial bloodstream infections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenzel Richard P

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Some studies of nosocomial bloodstream infection (nBSI have demonstrated a higher mortality for polymicrobial bacteremia when compared to monomicrobial nBSI. The purpose of this study was to compare differences in systemic inflammatory response and mortality between monomicrobial and polymicrobial nBSI with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Methods We performed a historical cohort study on 98 adults with P. aeruginosa (Pa nBSI. SIRS scores were determined 2 days prior to the first positive blood culture through 14 days afterwards. Monomicrobial (n = 77 and polymicrobial BSIs (n = 21 were compared. Results 78.6% of BSIs were caused by monomicrobial P. aeruginosa infection (MPa and 21.4% by polymicrobial P. aeruginosa infection (PPa. Median APACHE II score on the day of BSI was 22 for MPa and 23 for PPa BSIs. Septic shock occurred in 33.3% of PPa and in 39.0% of MPa (p = 0.64. Progression to septic shock was associated with death more frequently in PPa (OR 38.5, CI95 2.9–508.5 than MPa (OR 4.5, CI95 1.7–12.1. Maximal SIR (severe sepsis, septic shock or death was seen on day 0 for PPa BSI vs. day 1 for MPa. No significant difference was noted in the incidence of organ failure, 7-day or overall mortality between the two groups. Univariate analysis revealed that APACHE II score ≥20 at BSI onset, Charlson weighted comorbidity index ≥3, burn injury and respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and hematologic failure were associated with death, while age, malignant disease, diabetes mellitus, hepatic failure, gastrointestinal complications, inappropriate antimicrobial therapy, infection with imipenem resistant P. aeruginosa and polymicrobial nBSI were not. Multivariate analysis revealed that hematologic failure (p Conclusion In this historical cohort study of nBSI with P. aeruginosa, the incidence of septic shock and organ failure was high in both groups. Additionally, patients with PPa BSI were not more acutely ill, as judged by APACHE II

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

Robust LOD scores for variance component-based linkage analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Blangero, J; Williams, J T; Almasy, L

2000-01-01

The variance component method is now widely used for linkage analysis of quantitative traits. Although this approach offers many advantages, the importance of the underlying assumption of multivariate normality of the trait distribution within pedigrees has not been studied extensively. Simulation studies have shown that traits with leptokurtic distributions yield linkage test statistics that exhibit excessive Type I error when analyzed naively. We derive analytical formulae relating the deviation from the expected asymptotic distribution of the lod score to the kurtosis and total heritability of the quantitative trait. A simple correction constant yields a robust lod score for any deviation from normality and for any pedigree structure, and effectively eliminates the problem of inflated Type I error due to misspecification of the underlying probability model in variance component-based linkage analysis.

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Evaluation of the Apache II and the oncologic history, as indicative predictions of mortality in the unit of intensive care of the INC September 1996 -December 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camargo, David O; Gomez, Clara; Martinez, Teresa

1999-01-01

They are multiple the indexes of severity that have been carried out to value the predict and the quality of a patient's life, especially when this it enters to the unit of intensive care (UIC); however, the oncologic patient presents particularities in their mobility, that it supposes a different behavior in the results of the Indexes. Presently work is compared the Apache scale and the oncologic history like morbid mortality as predictors in the UCI. 207 patients were included that entered the UCI between September of 1996 and December of 1997. It was a mortality of 29%, the stay of most of this group of patient smaller than 24 hours or bigger than 8 days. To the entrance, 50% of the patients presented superior averages at 15 in the Apache Scale and at the 48 hours, alone 30.4% continued with this value. The patients with hematologic neoplasia presented superior average at 15 in 87%, with a mortality of 63.3% with average between 15 and 24 to the entrance, the risk of dying was 9.8 times but that with inferior average. In the hematologic patient, the risk of dying was 5.7 times but regarding the solid tumors. The system but altered it was the breathing one, with an increase in the risk of dying from 2,8 times for each increment utility in the scale. Contrary to described in the literature, the oncologic diagnoses and the neoplasia statistic they didn't influence in the mortality of the patients

Development of a likelihood of survival scoring system for hospitalized equine neonates using generalized boosted regression modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna A Dembek

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Medical management of critically ill equine neonates (foals can be expensive and labor intensive. Predicting the odds of foal survival using clinical information could facilitate the decision-making process for owners and clinicians. Numerous prognostic indicators and mathematical models to predict outcome in foals have been published; however, a validated scoring method to predict survival in sick foals has not been reported. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system that can be used by clinicians to predict likelihood of survival of equine neonates based on clinical data obtained on admission. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 339 hospitalized foals of less than four days of age admitted to three equine hospitals were included to develop the model. Thirty seven variables including historical information, physical examination and laboratory findings were analyzed by generalized boosted regression modeling (GBM to determine which ones would be included in the survival score. Of these, six variables were retained in the final model. The weight for each variable was calculated using a generalized linear model and the probability of survival for each total score was determined. The highest (7 and the lowest (0 scores represented 97% and 3% probability of survival, respectively. Accuracy of this survival score was validated in a prospective study on data from 283 hospitalized foals from the same three hospitals. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the survival score in the prospective population were 96%, 71%, 91%, and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The survival score developed in our study was validated in a large number of foals with a wide range of diseases and can be easily implemented using data available in most equine hospitals. GBM was a useful tool to develop the survival score. Further evaluations of this scoring system in field conditions are needed.

Mescalero Apache Tribe Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS). Phase 1 feasibility study report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peso, F.

1992-03-13

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended, authorizes the siting, construction and operation of a Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility. The MRS is intended to be used for the temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel from the nation`s nuclear power plants beginning as early as 1998. Pursuant to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Office of the Nuclear Waste Negotiator was created. On October 7, 1991, the Nuclear Waste Negotiator invited the governors of states and the Presidents of Indian tribes to apply for government grants in order to conduct a study to assess under what conditions, if any, they might consider hosting an MRS facility. Pursuant to this invitation, on October 11, 1991 the Mescalero Apache Indian Tribe of Mescalero, NM applied for a grant to conduct a phased, preliminary study of the safety, technical, political, environmental, social and economic feasibility of hosting an MRS. The preliminary study included: (1) An investigative education process to facilitate the Tribe`s comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social, political, and economic aspects of hosting an MRS, and; (2) The development of an extensive program that is enabling the Tribe, in collaboration with the Negotiator, to reach an informed and carefully researched decision regarding the conditions, (if any), under which further pursuit of the MRS would be considered. The Phase 1 grant application enabled the Tribe to begin the initial activities necessary to determine whether further consideration is warranted for hosting the MRS facility. The Tribe intends to pursue continued study of the MRS in order to meet the following objectives: (1) Continuing the education process towards a comprehensive understanding of the safety, environmental, technical, social and economic aspects of the MRS; (2) Conducting an effective public participation and information program; (3) Participating in MRS meetings.

Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts with the scoringRules package

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Alexander; Krüger, Fabian; Lerch, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Over the last decades probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive distributions have become popular in many scientific disciplines. With the proliferation of probabilistic models arises the need for decision-theoretically principled tools to evaluate the appropriateness of models and forecasts in a generalized way in order to better understand sources of prediction errors and to improve the models. Proper scoring rules are functions S(F,y) which evaluate the accuracy of a forecast distribution F , given that an outcome y was observed. In coherence with decision-theoretical principles they allow to compare alternative models, a crucial ability given the variety of theories, data sources and statistical specifications that is available in many situations. This contribution presents the software package scoringRules for the statistical programming language R, which provides functions to compute popular scoring rules such as the continuous ranked probability score for a variety of distributions F that come up in applied work. For univariate variables, two main classes are parametric distributions like normal, t, or gamma distributions, and distributions that are not known analytically, but are indirectly described through a sample of simulation draws. For example, ensemble weather forecasts take this form. The scoringRules package aims to be a convenient dictionary-like reference for computing scoring rules. We offer state of the art implementations of several known (but not routinely applied) formulas, and implement closed-form expressions that were previously unavailable. Whenever more than one implementation variant exists, we offer statistically principled default choices. Recent developments include the addition of scoring rules to evaluate multivariate forecast distributions. The use of the scoringRules package is illustrated in an example on post-processing ensemble forecasts of temperature.

Differences of wells scores accuracy, caprini scores and padua scores in deep vein thrombosis diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Gatot, D.; Mardia, A. I.

2018-03-01

Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) is the venous thrombus in lower limbs. Diagnosis is by using venography or ultrasound compression. However, these examinations are not available yet in some health facilities. Therefore many scoring systems are developed for the diagnosis of DVT. The scoring method is practical and safe to use in addition to efficacy, and effectiveness in terms of treatment and costs. The existing scoring systems are wells, caprini and padua score. There have been many studies comparing the accuracy of this score but not in Medan. Therefore, we are interested in comparative research of wells, capriniand padua score in Medan.An observational, analytical, case-control study was conducted to perform diagnostic tests on the wells, caprini and padua score to predict the risk of DVT. The study was at H. Adam Malik Hospital in Medan.From a total of 72 subjects, 39 people (54.2%) are men and the mean age are 53.14 years. Wells score, caprini score and padua score has a sensitivity of 80.6%; 61.1%, 50% respectively; specificity of 80.65; 66.7%; 75% respectively, and accuracy of 87.5%; 64.3%; 65.7% respectively.Wells score has better sensitivity, specificity and accuracy than caprini and padua score in diagnosing DVT.

Comparative Study of Load Testing Tools: Apache JMeter, HP LoadRunner, Microsoft Visual Studio (TFS, Siege

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Rabiya Abbas

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Software testing is the process of verifying and validating the user’s requirements. Testing is ongoing process during whole software development. Software testing is characterized into three main types. That is, in Black box testing, user doesn’t know domestic knowledge, internal logics and design of system. In white box testing, Tester knows the domestic logic of code. In Grey box testing, Tester has little bit knowledge about the internal structure and working of the system. It is commonly used in case of Integration testing.Load testing helps us to analyze the performance of the system under heavy load or under Zero load. This is achieved with the help of a Load Testing Tool. The intention for writing this research is to carry out a comparison of four load testing tools i.e. Apache JMeter, LoadRunner, Microsoft Visual Studio (TFS, Siege based on certain criteria  i.e. test scripts generation , result reports, application support, plug-in supports, and cost . The main focus is to study these load testing tools and identify which tool is better and more efficient . We assume this comparison can help in selecting the most appropriate tool and motivates the use of open source load testing tools.

Key performance indicators score (KPIs-score) based on clinical and laboratorial parameters can establish benchmarks for internal quality control in an ART program.

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Franco, José G; Petersen, Claudia G; Mauri, Ana L; Vagnini, Laura D; Renzi, Adriana; Petersen, Bruna; Mattila, M C; Comar, Vanessa A; Ricci, Juliana; Dieamant, Felipe; Oliveira, João Batista A; Baruffi, Ricardo L R

2017-06-01

KPIs have been employed for internal quality control (IQC) in ART. However, clinical KPIs (C-KPIs) such as age, AMH and number of oocytes collected are never added to laboratory KPIs (L-KPIs), such as fertilization rate and morphological quality of the embryos for analysis, even though the final endpoint is the evaluation of clinical pregnancy rates. This paper analyzed if a KPIs-score strategy with clinical and laboratorial parameters could be used to establish benchmarks for IQC in ART cycles. In this prospective cohort study, 280 patients (36.4±4.3years) underwent ART. The total KPIs-score was obtained by the analysis of age, AMH (AMH Gen II ELISA/pre-mixing modified, Beckman Coulter Inc.), number of metaphase-II oocytes, fertilization rates and morphological quality of the embryonic lot. The total KPIs-score (C-KPIs+L-KPIs) was correlated with the presence or absence of clinical pregnancy. The relationship between the C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores was analyzed to establish quality standards, to increase the performance of clinical and laboratorial processes in ART. The logistic regression model (LRM), with respect to pregnancy and total KPIs-score (280 patients/102 clinical pregnancies), yielded an odds ratio of 1.24 (95%CI = 1.16-1.32). There was also a significant difference (pclinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=20.4±3.7) and the group without clinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=15.9±5). Clinical pregnancy probabilities (CPP) can be obtained using the LRM (prediction key) with the total KPIs-score as a predictor variable. The mean C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores obtained in the pregnancy group were 11.9±2.9 and 8.5±1.7, respectively. Routinely, in all cases where the C-KPIs score was ≥9, after the procedure, the L-KPIs score obtained was ≤6, a revision of the laboratory procedure was performed to assess quality standards. This total KPIs-score could set up benchmarks for clinical pregnancy. Moreover, IQC can use C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores to detect problems

Rhabdomyolysis and acute kidney injury: creatine kinase as a prognostic marker and validation of the McMahon Score in a 10-year cohort: A retrospective observational evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Joanna P; Taylor, Andrew; Sudhan, Nazneen; Menon, David K; Lavinio, Andrea

2016-12-01

High-volume fluid resuscitation and the administration of sodium bicarbonate and diuretics have a theoretical renoprotective role in patients at high risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) following rhabdomyolysis. Abnormally elevated creatine kinase has previously been used as a biological marker for the identification of patients at high risk of AKI following rhabdomyolysis. To assess the sensitivity and specificity of plasma creatine kinase (admission and peak values) for the prediction of AKI requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) or of death in patients with confirmed rhabdomyolysis. To compare the diagnostic performance of creatine kinase with the McMahon score. Retrospective observational study. Data collection included McMahon and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores; daily creatine kinase; daily creatinine and electrolytes; ICU length of stay and mortality. Neurosciences and Trauma Critical Care Unit (Cambridge, UK). In total, 232 adults with confirmed rhabdomyolysis (creatine kinase > 1000 Ul) admitted to Neurosciences and Trauma Critical Care Unit between 2002 and 2012. AKI, RRT and mortality. Forty-five (19%) patients developed AKI and 29 (12.5%) patients required RRT. Mortality was significantly higher in patients who developed AKI (62 vs. 18%, P rhabdomyolysis. Although a PEAK creatine kinase of at least 5000 Ul has sensitivity acceptable for screening purposes, this is often a delayed finding. A McMahon score of at least 6 calculated on admission allows for a more sensitive, specific and timely identification of patients who may benefit from high-volume fluid resuscitation.

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Probable association of tachyarrhythmia with nebulized albuterol in a child with previously subclinical wolff Parkinson white syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kroesen, M.; Maseland, M.; Smal, J.; Reimer, A.; van Setten, P.

2012-01-01

We present the case of a 2-year-old asthmatic boy with atrioventricular (AV)-reentry tachycardia following albuterol inhalation, who was later diagnosed with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. The Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability scale score for this adverse event was 7, indicating that

Boundary curves of individual items in the distribution of total depressive symptom scores approximate an exponential pattern in a general population

OpenAIRE

Tomitaka, Shinichiro; Kawasaki, Yohei; Ide, Kazuki; Akutagawa, Maiko; Yamada, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Toshiaki A.; Ono, Yutaka

2016-01-01

[Background]Previously, we proposed a model for ordinal scale scoring in which individual thresholds for each item constitute a distribution by each item. This lead us to hypothesize that the boundary curves of each depressive symptom score in the distribution of total depressive symptom scores follow a common mathematical model, which is expressed as the product of the frequency of the total depressive symptom scores and the probability of the cumulative distribution function of each item th...

Refinement of a Method for Identifying Probable Archaeological Sites from Remotely Sensed Data

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Tilton, James C.; Comer, Douglas C.; Priebe, Carey E.; Sussman, Daniel; Chen, Li

2012-01-01

To facilitate locating archaeological sites before they are compromised or destroyed, we are developing approaches for generating maps of probable archaeological sites, through detecting subtle anomalies in vegetative cover, soil chemistry, and soil moisture by analyzing remotely sensed data from multiple sources. We previously reported some success in this effort with a statistical analysis of slope, radar, and Ikonos data (including tasseled cap and NDVI transforms) with Student's t-test. We report here on new developments in our work, performing an analysis of 8-band multispectral Worldview-2 data. The Worldview-2 analysis begins by computing medians and median absolute deviations for the pixels in various annuli around each site of interest on the 28 band difference ratios. We then use principle components analysis followed by linear discriminant analysis to train a classifier which assigns a posterior probability that a location is an archaeological site. We tested the procedure using leave-one-out cross validation with a second leave-one-out step to choose parameters on a 9,859x23,000 subset of the WorldView-2 data over the western portion of Ft. Irwin, CA, USA. We used 100 known non-sites and trained one classifier for lithic sites (n=33) and one classifier for habitation sites (n=16). We then analyzed convex combinations of scores from the Archaeological Predictive Model (APM) and our scores. We found that that the combined scores had a higher area under the ROC curve than either individual method, indicating that including WorldView-2 data in analysis improved the predictive power of the provided APM.

Nonoperative management for perforated peptic ulcer: who can benefit?

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Feng; Li, Jia; Li, Ang; Fang, Yu; Wang, Ya-Jun; Li, Fei

2014-07-01

Although nonoperative management for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) has been used for several decades, the indication is still unclear. A clinicoradiological score was sought to predict who can benefit from it. A clinicoradiological protocol for the assessment of patients presenting with PPU was used. A logistic regression model was applied to identify determinant variables and construct a clinical score that would identify patients who can be successfully treated with nonoperative management. Of 241 consecutive patients with PPU, 107 successfully received nonoperative management, and 134 required surgery. In multivariable analysis, the following four variables correlated with surgery and were given one point each toward the clinical score: age ≥70 years, fluid collection detection by ultrasound, contrast extravasation detection by water-soluble contrast examination, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score ≥8. Eighty-five percent of patients with a score of 1 or less were successfully treated with nonoperative management, whereas 23 of 29 patients with a score of 3 or more required surgery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.804 (95% confidence interval = 0.717-0.891). By combining clinical, radiological parameters, and APACHE II score, the clinical score allowed early identification of PPU patients who can benefit from nonoperative management. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison of Wells and Revised Geneva Rule to Assess Pretest Probability of Pulmonary Embolism in High-Risk Hospitalized Elderly Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Marca, Salvatore; Cilia, Chiara; Campagna, Andrea; D'Arrigo, Graziella; Abd ElHafeez, Samar; Tripepi, Giovanni; Puccia, Giuseppe; Pisano, Marcella; Mastrosimone, Gianluca; Terranova, Valentina; Cardella, Antonella; Buonacera, Agata; Stancanelli, Benedetta; Zoccali, Carmine; Malatino, Lorenzo

2015-06-01

To assess and compare the diagnostic power for pulmonary embolism (PE) of Wells and revised Geneva scores in two independent cohorts (training and validation groups) of elderly adults hospitalized in a non-emergency department. Prospective clinical study, January 2011 to January 2013. Unit of Internal Medicine inpatients, University of Catania, Italy. Elderly adults (mean age 76 ± 12), presenting with dyspnea or chest pain and with high clinical probability of PE or D-dimer values greater than 500 ng/mL (N = 203), were enrolled and consecutively assigned to a training (n = 101) or a validation (n = 102) group. The clinical probability of PE was assessed using Wells and revised Geneva scores. Clinical examination, D-dimer test, and multidetector computed angiotomography were performed in all participants. The accuracy of the scores was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. PE was confirmed in 46 participants (23%) (24 training group, 22 validation group). In the training group, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.85-0.98) for the Wells score and 0.69 (95% CI = 0.56-0.82) for the revised Geneva score (P < .001). These results were confirmed in the validation group (P < .05). The positive (LR+) and negative likelihood ratios (LR-) (two indices combining sensitivity and specificity) of the Wells score were superior to those of the revised Geneva score in the training (LR+, 7.90 vs 1.34; LR-, 0.23 vs 0.66) and validation (LR+, 13.5 vs 1.46; LR-, 0.47 vs 0.54) groups. In high-risk elderly hospitalized adults, the Wells score is more accurate than the revised Geneva score for diagnosing PE. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

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Julian Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

Diagnostic Value of the Updated Diamond and Forrester Score to Predict Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Acute-Onset Chest Pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørgaard, Mathias; Linde, Jesper James; Kofoed, Klaus Fuglsang

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: In the recently updated clinical guidelines from the European Society of Cardiology on the management of stable coronary artery disease (CAD), the updated Diamond Forrester score has been included as a pretest probability (PTP) score to select patients for further diagnostic testing. ...... useful tool in risk-stratifying patients with acute-onset chest pain at a low-to-intermediate risk of having CAD. Adding a stress test to PTP does not appear to offer significant diagnostic benefit.......OBJECTIVES: In the recently updated clinical guidelines from the European Society of Cardiology on the management of stable coronary artery disease (CAD), the updated Diamond Forrester score has been included as a pretest probability (PTP) score to select patients for further diagnostic testing. We...... investigated the validity of the new guidelines in a population of patients with acute-onset chest pain. METHODS: We examined 527 consecutive patients with either an exercise-ECG stress test or single-photon emission computed tomography, and subsequently coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). We...

The use of perioperative serial blood lactate levels, the APACHE II and the postoperative MELD as predictors of early mortality after liver transplantation O uso da dosagem seriada do lactato sérico no perioperatório, do APACHE II e do MELD pós-operatório como preditores de mortalidade precoce após transplante hepático

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anibal Basile-Filho

2011-12-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE: To evaluate the accuracy of different parameters in predicting early (one-month mortality of patients submitted to orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of forty-four patients (38 males and 10 females, mean age of 52.2 ± 8.9 years admitted to the Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary hospital. Serial lactate blood levels, APACHE II, MELD post-OLT, creatinine, bilirubin and INR parameters were analyzed by receiver-operator characteristic (ROC curves as evidenced by the area under the curve (AUC. The level of significance was set at 0.05. RESULTS: The mortality of OLT patients within one month was 17.3%. Differences in blood lactate levels became statistically significant between survivors and nonsurvivors at the end of the surgery (pOBJETIVO: Avaliar qual parâmetro é o mais eficiente na predição de mortalidade precoce (um mês de pacientes submetidos a transplante ortotópico de fígado (OLT. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo em cinqüenta e oito pacientes adultos (44 homens e 14 mulheres, com uma idade média de 51,7 ± 10,1 anos admitidos na Unidade de Terapia Intensiva de um hospital terciário. Os parâmetros como a dosagem seriada de lactato no sangue, APACHE II, MELD pós-OLT, creatinina, bilirrubina e INR foram analisados por curvas ROC (Receiver-operator characteristic, evidenciado pela área abaixo da curva (AUC. O nível de significância foi definido em 0,05. RESULTADOS: A mortalidade dos pacientes OLT em até um mês foi de 17,3%. As diferenças no nível de lactato no sangue tornaram-se estatisticamente significantes entre sobreviventes e não sobreviventes no final da cirurgia (p < 0,05. A AUC foi de 0,726 (95%CI = 0,593-0,835 para APACHE II (p = 0,02; 0,770 (95%CI = 0,596-0,849 para o lactato sérico (L7-L8 (p = 0,03; 0,814 (95%CI = 0,690-0,904 para MELD post-OLT (p < 0,01; 0,550 (95%CI = 0,414-0,651 de creatinina (p = 0,64; 0,705 (95%CI = 0,571-0,818 de bilirrubina (p = 0,05 e 0

ASTRAL-R score predicts non-recanalisation after intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, Peter; Heldner, Mirjam R; Seiffge, David; Mueller, Hubertus; Eskandari, Ashraf; Traenka, Christopher; Ntaios, George; Mosimann, Pascal J; Sztajzel, Roman; Mendes Pereira, Vitor; Cras, Patrick; Engelter, Stefan; Lyrer, Philippe; Fischer, Urs; Lambrou, Dimitris; Arnold, Marcel; Michel, Patrik

2015-05-01

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) as treatment in acute ischaemic strokes may be insufficient to achieve recanalisation in certain patients. Predicting probability of non-recanalisation after IVT may have the potential to influence patient selection to more aggressive management strategies. We aimed at deriving and internally validating a predictive score for post-thrombolytic non-recanalisation, using clinical and radiological variables. In thrombolysis registries from four Swiss academic stroke centres (Lausanne, Bern, Basel and Geneva), patients were selected with large arterial occlusion on acute imaging and with repeated arterial assessment at 24 hours. Based on a logistic regression analysis, an integer-based score for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated. Performance of integer-based predictive model was assessed by bootstrapping available data and cross validation (delete-d method). In 599 thrombolysed strokes, five variables were identified as independent predictors of absence of recanalisation: Acute glucose > 7 mmol/l (A), significant extracranial vessel STenosis (ST), decreased Range of visual fields (R), large Arterial occlusion (A) and decreased Level of consciousness (L). All variables were weighted 1, except for (L) which obtained 2 points based on β-coefficients on the logistic scale. ASTRAL-R scores 0, 3 and 6 corresponded to non-recanalisation probabilities of 18, 44 and 74 % respectively. Predictive ability showed AUC of 0.66 (95 %CI, 0.61-0.70) when using bootstrap and 0.66 (0.63-0.68) when using delete-d cross validation. In conclusion, the 5-item ASTRAL-R score moderately predicts non-recanalisation at 24 hours in thrombolysed ischaemic strokes. If its performance can be confirmed by external validation and its clinical usefulness can be proven, the score may influence patient selection for more aggressive revascularisation strategies in routine clinical practice.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

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Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Predicting placebo response in adolescents with major depressive disorder: The Adolescent Placebo Impact Composite Score (APICS).

Science.gov (United States)

Nakonezny, Paul A; Mayes, Taryn L; Byerly, Matthew J; Emslie, Graham J

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to construct a composite scoring system to predict the probability of placebo response in adolescents with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Participants of the current study were 151 adolescents (aged 12-17 years) who were randomized to the placebo arm (placebo transdermal patches) of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing the selegiline transdermal patch with placebo (DelBello et al., 2014). The primary outcome of response was defined as a CGI-I score of 1 or 2 (very much or much improved) at week 12 (study-end) or exit. As a first step, a multiple logistic mixed model was used to estimate the odds of placebo response from each predictor in the model, including age, CDRS-R total at baseline (depressive symptom severity), history of recurrent depression (yes vs. no), sex (female vs. male), and race (non-Caucasian vs. Caucasian). On the basis of the initial logistic mixed model analysis, we then constructed an Adolescent Placebo Impact Composite Score (APICS) that became the sole predictor in a re-specified Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate the probability of placebo response. Finally, the AUC for the APICS was tested against a nominal area of 0.50 to evaluate how well the APICS discriminated placebo response status. Among the 151 adolescents, with a mean age of 14.6 years (SD = 1.6) and a mean baseline CDRS-R total of 60.6 (SD = 12.1), 68.2% were females, 50.3% was Caucasian, and 39.7% had a history of recurrent depression. Placebo response rate was 58.3%. Based on the logistic mixed model, the re-specified equation with the highest discriminatory ability to estimate the probability of placebo response was APICS = age + (0.32 × CDRS-R Total at baseline) + (-2.85 × if female) + (-5.50 × if history of recurrent depression) + (-5.85 × if non-Caucasian). The AUC for this model was 0.59 (p = .049). Within a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework, in 95.5% of the time, the 10,000 posterior Monte Carlo samples suggested

The relationship of social anxiety disorder symptoms with probable attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in Turkish university students; impact of negative affect and personality traits of neuroticism and extraversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Evren, Cuneyt; Dalbudak, Ercan; Ozen, Secil; Evren, Bilge

2017-08-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate relationship of social anxiety disorder symptoms with probable attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) while controlling the personality traits of neuroticism and extraversion, anxiety and depression symptoms in a sample of Turkish university students (n=455). Participants were evaluated with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised-Abbreviated Form (EPQR-A), the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS-v1.1) and the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS). Severity of social anxiety, depression, anxiety and neuroticism were higher among those with probable ADHD, whereas extraversion score did not differ between the groups. The severity of ADHD score, particularly hyperactivity/impulsivity score, was related with the "fear or anxiety" together with low extraversion (introversion) and high neuroticism dimensions of personality, whereas the severity of ADHD score, both inatentiveness and hyperactivity/impulsivity scores, was related with "avoidence" together with low extraversion (introversion) dimension of personality. These findings suggest that probable ADHD and severity of ADHD symptoms are related with both "fear or anxiety" and "avoidance" of social anxiety, while personality dimensions of low extraversion (introversion) and high neuroticism may have an effect on this relationships among young adults. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Quality of life and probable psychological distress among male workers at a construction site, Kolar district, Karnataka, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, Geethu; Ramesh, Naveen; Shanbhag, Deepthi; Goud, Ramakrishna; Subramanian, Sharan; Lobo, Carol; Xavier, Alex; Dasari, Prudhvi

2016-01-01

The construction industry, which mainly consists of migrant labouers is one of the largest employers in the unorganized sector in India. These workers work in poor conditions and are often vulnerable to exploitation. These workers also do not have health care benefits and often these factors lead to poor quality of life (QOL) and psychological distress. To assess the QOL, probable psychological distress and associated factors among male construction workers. A cross-sectional study was conducted between September 2013 and November 2013 among 404 male workers. These construction workers were enrolled by consecutive sampling at a construction area in Kolar district, Kaarnataka, India. The study tools used were World Health Organization (WHO) QOL-BREF and 12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) to assess QOL and probable psychological distress, respectively. The transformed scores in WHO QOL-BREF in all four domains ranged 0-100. The four domain scores are scaled in a positive direction with higher scores indicating a higher QOL. Associations were done using statistical tests such as Chi-square, correlation, regression, independent samples t-test, and analysis of variance (ANOVA). A total of 404 male workers with a mean age of 25.6 ± 7.3 years were studied. Mean scores of various domains of QOL were 68.5 ± 13.7 (physical), 59.9 ± 13.5 (psychological), 64.3 ± 16.4 (social), and 44.1 ± 12.8 (environmental). On the self- rating scale, 59 (14.6%) workers were rated as having poor QOL. The prevalence of probable psychological distress was 27.5%. Factors such as increasing age, being currently married, and low educational status were found to be significantly associated (P psychological distress. There was a significant negative correlation (P psychological distress and a positive correlation between income and QOL. The QOL in the environmental domain, which mainly deals with living conditions, health, and recreational facilities was found to be poor and there

[Definition of the Diagnosis Osteomyelitis-Osteomyelitis Diagnosis Score (ODS)].

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, H G K; Tiemann, A H; Braunschweig, R; Diefenbeck, M; Bühler, M; Abitzsch, D; Haustedt, N; Walter, G; Schoop, R; Heppert, V; Hofmann, G O; Glombitza, M; Grimme, C; Gerlach, U-J; Flesch, I

2011-08-01

The disease "osteomyelitis" is characterised by different symptoms and parameters. Decisive roles in the development of the disease are played by the causative bacteria, the route of infection and the individual defense mechanisms of the host. The diagnosis is based on different symptoms and findings from the clinical history, clinical symptoms, laboratory results, diagnostic imaging, microbiological and histopathological analyses. While different osteomyelitis classifications have been published, there is to the best of our knowledge no score that gives information how sure the diagnosis "osteomyelitis" is in general. For any scientific study of a disease a valid definition is essential. We have developed a special osteomyelitis diagnosis score for the reliable classification of clinical, laboratory and technical findings. The score is based on five diagnostic procedures: 1) clinical history and risk factors, 2) clinical examination and laboratory results, 3) diagnostic imaging (ultrasound, radiology, CT, MRI, nuclear medicine and hybrid methods), 4) microbiology, and 5) histopathology. Each diagnostic procedure is related to many individual findings, which are weighted by a score system, in order to achieve a relevant value for each assessment. If the sum of the five diagnostic criteria is 18 or more points, the diagnosis of osteomyelitis can be viewed as "safe" (diagnosis class A). Between 8-17 points the diagnosis is "probable" (diagnosis class B). Less than 8 points means that the diagnosis is "possible, but unlikely" (class C diagnosis). Since each parameter can score six points at a maximum, a reliable diagnosis can only be achieved if at least 3 parameters are scored with 6 points. The osteomyelitis diagnosis score should help to avoid the false description of a clinical presentation as "osteomyelitis". A safe diagnosis is essential for the aetiology, treatment and outcome studies of osteomyelitis. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy S. Nowacki

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

Association testing for next-generation sequencing data using score statistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skotte, Line; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Albrechtsen, Anders

2012-01-01

computationally feasible due to the use of score statistics. As part of the joint likelihood, we model the distribution of the phenotypes using a generalized linear model framework, which works for both quantitative and discrete phenotypes. Thus, the method presented here is applicable to case-control studies...... of genotype calls into account have been proposed; most require numerical optimization which for large-scale data is not always computationally feasible. We show that using a score statistic for the joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed sequencing data provides an attractive approach...... to association testing for next-generation sequencing data. The joint model accounts for the genotype classification uncertainty via the posterior probabilities of the genotypes given the observed sequencing data, which gives the approach higher power than methods based on called genotypes. This strategy remains...

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

Features and treatment of gas-forming synergistic necrotizing cellulitis: a nine-year retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Xiangwei; Ye, Yuanyuan; Guo, Hailei; Liu, Zhengjun; Xia, Weidong; Lin, Cai

2018-03-01

As many doctors know little about gas-forming synergistic necrotizing cellulitis, we retrospectively explored it in our study. Totally, 30 patients diagnosed with gas-forming synergistic necrotizing cellulitis between November 2006 and September 2015 were included. They were divided into two groups: open drainage group (19 patients) and aggressive debridement group (11 patients). Retrospectively analyzed data comprised demographic characteristics, APACHE II scores, pathogen culture results, bleeding amount during the operation, white blood cell count, length of hospital stay and recovery. The mortality rate was 26% in the open drainage group and 73% in the aggressive debridement group (p=0.023). There was no statistical difference in the APACHE II score before treatment between the open drainageand aggressive debridement groups (16.6±4.5 vs 18.1±7.5, p=0.511). The APACHE II score was significantly higher after treatment in the aggressive debridement group (14.2±5.8 score vs 20.1±9.1, p=0.038). There were no statistical differences in the white blood count cell before and after treatment (13.49 × 109±5.05×109 cells/L vs 17.46×109±6.94×109 cells/L, p=0.082; 10.37×109±3.54×109 cells/L vs 15.47×109 ±7.51×109 cells/L, p=0.055; respectively). The bleeding amount during the operation was significantly more in the aggressive debridement group (315±112 ml vs 105±45 ml, pgas-forming synergistic necrotizing cellulitis, performing open drainage as early as possible isthe most important procedure after admission.

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Predicting Streptococcal Pharyngitis in Adults in Primary Care: A Systematic Review of the Diagnostic Accuracy of Symptoms and Signs and Validation of the Centor Score

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Aalbers, Jolien

2011-06-01

Abstract Background Stratifying patients with a sore throat into the probability of having an underlying bacterial or viral cause may be helpful in targeting antibiotic treatment. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR), the Centor score, for predicting group A β-haemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) pharyngitis in adults (> 14 years of age) presenting with sore throat symptoms. Methods A systematic literature search was performed up to July 2010. Studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and\\/or validated the Centor score were included. For the analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms and the Centor score, studies were combined using a bivariate random effects model, while for the calibration analysis of the Centor score, a random effects model was used. Results A total of 21 studies incorporating 4,839 patients were included in the meta-analysis on diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms. The results were heterogeneous and suggest that individual signs and symptoms generate only small shifts in post-test probability (range positive likelihood ratio (+LR) 1.45-2.33, -LR 0.54-0.72). As a decision rule for considering antibiotic prescribing (score ≥ 3), the Centor score has reasonable specificity (0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) and a post-test probability of 12% to 40% based on a prior prevalence of 5% to 20%. Pooled calibration shows no significant difference between the numbers of patients predicted and observed to have GABHS pharyngitis across strata of Centor score (0-1 risk ratio (RR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.06; 2-3 RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.17; 4 RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.37). Conclusions Individual signs and symptoms are not powerful enough to discriminate GABHS pharyngitis from other types of sore throat. The Centor score is a well calibrated CPR for estimating the probability of GABHS pharyngitis. The Centor score can enhance appropriate

The Goddard Integral Field Spectrograph at Apache Point Observatory: Current Status and Progress Towards Photon Counting

Science.gov (United States)

McElwain, Michael W.; Grady, Carol A.; Bally, John; Brinkmann, Jonathan V.; Bubeck, James; Gong, Qian; Hilton, George M.; Ketzeback, William F.; Lindler, Don; Llop Sayson, Jorge; Malatesta, Michael A.; Norton, Timothy; Rauscher, Bernard J.; Rothe, Johannes; Straka, Lorrie; Wilkins, Ashlee N.; Wisniewski, John P.; Woodgate, Bruce E.; York, Donald G.

2015-01-01

We present the current status and progress towards photon counting with the Goddard Integral Field Spectrograph (GIFS), a new instrument at the Apache Point Observatory's ARC 3.5m telescope. GIFS is a visible light imager and integral field spectrograph operating from 400-1000 nm over a 2.8' x 2.8' and 14' x 14' field of view, respectively. As an IFS, GIFS obtains over 1000 spectra simultaneously and its data reduction pipeline reconstructs them into an image cube that has 32 x 32 spatial elements and more than 200 spectral channels. The IFS mode can be applied to a wide variety of science programs including exoplanet transit spectroscopy, protostellar jets, the galactic interstellar medium probed by background quasars, Lyman-alpha emission line objects, and spectral imaging of galactic winds. An electron-multiplying CCD (EMCCD) detector enables photon counting in the high spectral resolution mode to be demonstrated at the ARC 3.5m in early 2015. The EMCCD work builds upon successful operational and characterization tests that have been conducted in the IFS laboratory at NASA Goddard. GIFS sets out to demonstrate an IFS photon-counting capability on-sky in preparation for future exoplanet direct imaging missions such as the AFTA-Coronagraph, Exo-C, and ATLAST mission concepts. This work is supported by the NASA APRA program under RTOP 10-APRA10-0103.

Cloud Computing: A model Construct of Real-Time Monitoring for Big Dataset Analytics Using Apache Spark

Science.gov (United States)

Alkasem, Ameen; Liu, Hongwei; Zuo, Decheng; Algarash, Basheer

2018-01-01

The volume of data being collected, analyzed, and stored has exploded in recent years, in particular in relation to the activity on the cloud computing. While large-scale data processing, analysis, storage, and platform model such as cloud computing were previously and currently are increasingly. Today, the major challenge is it address how to monitor and control these massive amounts of data and perform analysis in real-time at scale. The traditional methods and model systems are unable to cope with these quantities of data in real-time. Here we present a new methodology for constructing a model for optimizing the performance of real-time monitoring of big datasets, which includes a machine learning algorithms and Apache Spark Streaming to accomplish fine-grained fault diagnosis and repair of big dataset. As a case study, we use the failure of Virtual Machines (VMs) to start-up. The methodology proposition ensures that the most sensible action is carried out during the procedure of fine-grained monitoring and generates the highest efficacy and cost-saving fault repair through three construction control steps: (I) data collection; (II) analysis engine and (III) decision engine. We found that running this novel methodology can save a considerate amount of time compared to the Hadoop model, without sacrificing the classification accuracy or optimization of performance. The accuracy of the proposed method (92.13%) is an improvement on traditional approaches.

Developing Online Communities with LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) - the IMIA OSNI and CHIRAD Experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Peter J; Oyri, Karl

2005-01-01

Many health informatics organisations do not seem to use, on a practical basis, for the benefit of their activities and interaction with their members, the very technologies that they often promote for use within healthcare environments. In particular, many organisations seem to be slow to take up the benefits of interactive web technologies. This paper presents an introduction to some of the many free/libre and open source (FLOSS) applications currently available and using the LAMP - Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP architecture - as a way of cheaply deploying reliable, scalable, and secure web applications. The experience of moving to applications using LAMP architecture, in particular that of the Open Source Nursing Informatics (OSNI) Working Group of the Special Interest Group in Nursing Informatics of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA-NI), in using PostNuke, a FLOSS Content Management System (CMS) illustrates many of the benefits of such applications. The experiences of the authors in installing and maintaining a large number of websites using FLOSS CMS to develop dynamic, interactive websites that facilitate real engagement with the members of IMIA-NI OSNI, the IMIA Open Source Working Group, and the Centre for Health Informatics Research and Development (CHIRAD), as well as other organisations, is used as the basis for discussing the potential benefits that could be realised by others within the health informatics community.

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Outcomes of decompressive craniectomy in patients after traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Nambiar, Mithun; MacIsaac, Christopher; Grabinski, Rafal; Liew, Danny; Kavar, Bhadrakant

2015-06-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can result in cerebral oedema and vascular changes resulting in an increase in intracranial pressure (ICP), which can lead to further secondary damage. Decompressive craniectomy (DC) is a surgical option in the management of ICP. We aimed to investigate outcomes of DC after TBI. We performed a retrospective audit of 57 adult patients (aged > 15 years) who underwent DC after TBI, at the Royal Melbourne Hospital from 1 January 2005 to 30 June 2011. Our functional outcome measure was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). Patients had a median age of 30 years (range, 17- 73 years). The hospital mortality rate was 47% (27 patients). A higher postoperative median ICP was the most significant predictor of hospital mortality (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1-1.3). There was a mean decrease of 7.7mmHg in ICP between the mean preoperative and postoperative ICP values (95% CI, - 10.5 to - 5.0mmHg). There was a mean decrease of 3.5mmHg in the mean cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) from preoperative to postoperative CPP values (95% CI, - 6.2 to - 0.8mmHg). At the 6-month follow-up, a poor outcome (GOSE score, 1-4) was seen in 39 patients (68%), while a good outcome (GOSE score, 5- 8) was noted in 15 patients (26%). A high APACHE II score on admission was the most significant predictor of a worse GOSE score at 6 months (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). Analysis of the APACHE II and IMPACT scores as models for predicting mortality at 6 months showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.792 and 0.805, respectively, and for predicting poor outcome at 6 months, showed an AUC of 0.862 and 0.883, respectively. DC decreased ICP postoperatively. The IMPACT and APACHE II scores are good models for prediction of death and poor outcome at 6 months.

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

[Analysis of risk factors of fatal outcome in pregnant and puerperant patients with severe H1N1 influenza].

Science.gov (United States)

Zabolotskikh, I B; Penzhoian, G A; Musaeva, T S; Goncharenko, S I

2010-01-01

As well as previous epidemics and pandemias of influenza, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemia increases the risk of severe illness in pregnant. Data were reported for 28 pregnant and 2 postpartum women who have been hospitalized in ICUs of Krasnodar Region with H1N1 influenza diagnosis. The laboratory tests for H1N1 were negative in 53.3% of suspected cases of H1N1 influenza (16 of 30). The major lethal risk factor in pregnant with H1N1 influenza is a development of septic shock with low PaO2\\FiO2 ratio (less than 140) and high Murray's Acute Lung Injury Score (higher than 2.5). High Apache II, Apache III, SAPS 2, SAPS 3 and SOFA scores are the additional lethal risk factors. Lethal outcomes were more frequent in the end of the second trimester of pregnancy.

Predictors of Multidrug Resistant Acinetobacter Baumannii Infections in Surgical Intensive Care Patients: A Retrospective Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aynur Camkıran

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Objective: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (MRAB is an important cause of hospital acquired infection and leads to an increasing morbidity and mortality in intensive care units (ICU. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of MRAB infection in surgical ICU patients. Material and Method: The charts of the patients who were admitted to the ICU between January 2008 and August 2010 were reviewed to identify patients with MRAB infection. Recorded data were as follows: age, sex, medical history, underlying surgical pathology, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (APACHE II and Glasgow Coma Score on ICU admission,presence of invasive procedures (intubation, arterial, central venous lines, urinary catheters, and renal replacement therapy, days in ICU and white blood cells (WBC and lactate count on infection day, infection site, complications (such as organ/system failure, length of stay (LOS in the ICU and hospital, and final outcome. Results: During the study period 25 patients with MRAB infection were identified. When compared with their matched control group (n=25, patients with MRAB infection had a significantly higher mean APACHE II score (p=0.001 and more frequently had an open wound (p=0.002 or required mechanical ventilation (p=0.005, with respiratory system disease (p=0.03, arterial catheterization (p=0.006, and central venous catheterization (p=0.004. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that APACHE II score (OR,1.155; CI, 1.008-1.324; p= 0.038 and open wound (OR, 27.77; CI, 2.020-333.333; p=0.018 were predictors of MRAB infection in these patients. Compared to their controls, patients with MRAB infection hand a longer LOS in ICU (36.44±30.44 days vs 7.80±8.13 days, p<0.000 and hospital (55.12±40.81 days vs 19.04±13.44 days, p<0.000. In hospital mortality rates for patients with MRAB infection and their controls were 56% and 32%, respectively (p=0.154. Conclusion: Our results indicate

Comparison and relationship of thyroid hormones, IL-6, IL-10 and albumin as mortality predictors in case-mix critically ill patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Quispe E, Álvaro; Li, Xiang-Min; Yi, Hong

2016-05-01

To compare the ability of thyroid hormones, IL-6, IL-10, and albumin to predict mortality, and to assess their relationship in case-mix acute critically ill patients. APACHE II scores and serum thyroid hormones (FT3, FT4, and TSH), IL-6, IL-10, and albumin were obtained at EICU admission for 79 cases of mix acute critically ill patients without previous history of thyroid disease. Patients were followed for 28 days with patient's death as the primary outcome. All mean values were compared, correlations assessed with Pearson' test, and mortality prediction assessed by multivariate logistic regression and ROC. Non survivors were older, with higher APACHE II score (p=0.000), IL-6 (p<0.05), IL-10 (p=0.000) levels, and lower albumin (p=0.000) levels compared to survivors at 28 days. IL-6 and IL-10 had significant negative correlation with albumin (p=0.001) and FT3 (p ⩽ 0.05) respectively, while low albumin had a direct correlation with FT3 (p<0.05). In the mortality prediction assessment, IL-10, albumin and APACHE II were independent morality predictors and showed to have a good (0.70-0.79) AUC-ROC (p<0.05). Despite that the entire cohort showed low FT3 serum levels (p=0.000), there was not statistical difference between survivors and non-survivors; neither showed any significance as mortality predictor. IL-6 and IL-10 are correlated with Low FT3 and hypoalbuminemia. Thyroid hormones assessed at EICU admission did not have any predictive value in our study. And finally, high levels of IL-6 and IL-10 in conjunction with albumin could improve our ability to evaluate disease's severity and predict mortality in the critically ill patients. When use in combination with APACHE II scores, our model showed improved mortality prediction. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic.

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Novac, M; Dragoescu, Alice; Stanculescu, Andreea; Duca, Lucica; Cernea, Daniela

2014-01-01

Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Leptin Is Associated With Persistence of Hyperglycemia in Acute Pancreatitis

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Kennedy, James I.C.; Askelund, Kathryn J.; Premkumar, Rakesh; Phillips, Anthony R.J.; Murphy, Rinki; Windsor, John A.; Petrov, Maxim S.

2016-01-01

Abstract Adipokines have many homeostatic roles, including modulation of glucose metabolism, but their role in the pathophysiology of hyperglycemia associated with acute and critical illnesses in general, and acute pancreatitis (AP) in particular, is largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between a panel of adipokines and hyperglycemia in the early course of AP, as well as the role of adipokines as predictors of AP severity. Adiponectin, leptin, omentin, resistin, and visfatin were measured on a daily basis in the first 72 hours after hospital admission. A first set of analyses was undertaken with admission glycemia stratified by severity, and a second set of analyses was undertaken based on persistence of early hyperglycemia. All of the analyses were adjusted for confounders. A total of 32 patients with AP were included in this study. None of the studied adipokines was significantly associated with glucose level on admission. Leptin was significantly (P = 0.003) increased in patients with persistent hyperglycemia. Adiponectin was significantly associated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in patients with persistent hyperglycemia (P = 0.015), visfatin with APACHE II score in patients with persistent hyperglycemia (P = 0.014), and omentin with APACHE II score in all of the patients regardless of the presence or absence of hyperglycemia (P = 0.021). Leptin is significantly associated with persistent hyperglycemia in the early course of AP. Omentin has a potential to become an accurate predictor of AP severity. PMID:26871770

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin I for the prognostic utility in elderly patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in intensive care unit: A retrospective study.

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Cheng, Hui; Fan, Wei-Ze; Wang, Sheng-Chi; Liu, Zhao-Hui; Zang, Hui-Ling; Wang, Li-Zhong; Liu, Hong-Juan; Shen, Xiao-Hui; Liang, Shao-Qing

2015-06-01

Using biomarkers to predict mortality in patient with severe sepsis or septic shock is of importance, as these patients frequently have high mortality and unsatisfied outcome. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) play extremely important roles in prognostic value in the mortality of severe sepsis and septic shock. The present study was retrospectively designed to evaluate the predicting mortality of NT-proBNP and cTnI in elderly patients with severe sepsis or septic shock administered in the intensive care unit (ICU) and also to evaluate whether the predicting ability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score or C-reactive protein (CRP) was increased in combination with the biomarkers. A cohort of 430 patients (aged ≥65 years) with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to our ICU between October 2011 and December 2013 was included in the study. Patient data including clinical, laboratory, and survival and mortality were collected. All patients were examined with NT-proBNP, cTnI, CRP, and APACHE-II score and were categorized as the survived and deceased groups according to the outcome 30 days after ICU treatment. The levels of NT-proBNP and cTnI (P pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cTnI were superior to CRP in predicting mortality. The predicting ability of APACHE-II score was improved only when combined with NT-proBNP and cTnI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combined enteral feeding and total parenteral nutritional support improves outcome in surgical intensive care unit patients.

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Hsu, Min-Hui; Yu, Ying E; Tsai, Yueh-Miao; Lee, Hui-Chen; Huang, Ying-Che; Hsu, Han-Shui

2012-09-01

For intensive care unit (ICU) patients with gastrointestinal dysfunction and in need of total parenteral nutrition (TPN) support, the benefit of additional enteral feeding is not clear. This study aimed to investigate whether combined TPN with enteral feeding is associated with better outcomes in surgical intensive care unit (SICU) patients. Clinical data of 88 patients in SICU were retrospectively collected. Variables used for analysis included route and percentage of nutritional support, total caloric intake, age, gender, body weight, body mass index, admission diagnosis, surgical procedure, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, comorbidities, length of hospital stay, postoperative complications, blood glucose values and hospital mortality. Wound dehiscence and central catheter infection were observed more frequently in the group of patients receiving TPN calories less than 90% of total calorie intake (p = 0.004 and 0.043, respectively). APACHE II scores were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (p = 0.001). More nonsurvivors received TPN calories exceeding 90% of total calorie intake and were in need of dialysis during ICU admission (p = 0.005 and 0.013, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that the percentage of TPN calories over total calories and APACHE II scores were independent predictors of ICU mortality in patients receiving supplementary TPN after surgery. In SICU patients receiving TPN, patients who could be fed enterally more than 10% of total calories had better clinical outcomes than patients receiving less than 10% of total calorie intake from enteral feeding. Enteral feeding should be given whenever possible in severely ill patients. 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

A survey on microorganisms and their sensitivity by E-test in ventilator-associated pneumonia at Toxicological-Intensive Care Unit of Loghman-Hakim Hospital.

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Talaie, Haleh; Sabeti, Shahram; Mahdavinejad, Arezou; Barari, Behjat; Kamalbeik, Sepideh

2010-12-01

Ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common nosocomial infection at ICUs, with high mortality and morbidity. The diagnostic method for VAP is based on the combination of clinical, radiological, and microbiological criteria. Lower respiratory tract culture results are useful to confirm the etiology of VAP and adjusted antibiotics. Endotracheal aspiration (EA) is the simplest noninvasive technique for performing lower respiratory tract culture, with high sensitivity and moderately high specificity. The aim of this survey was to evaluate the quantitative cultures of endotracheal aspirates in VAP patients and the sensitivity patterns of microorganisms through E-test. Among 582 ICU admitted patients who were under mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours, 72 suspected patients of VAP were prospectively evaluated during a 10 month period. Evaluation of our ICU standards by APACHE III scoring, and GCS were carried out on the first day of admission in all patients. Quantitative cultures of EA were performed on all 72 patients. Antibiotic resistance pattern of isolated pathogens was defined by E-test. VAP was confirmed in 46 out of 72 cases (50, 69.4% males and 22, 30.6% females - mean age was 33 +/- 12 years) through quantitative cultures of EA samples. The probable incidence of VAP was 7.9% (per ventilated patients > or = 48 hours). The mean APACHE III score was 31.28 +/- 16. GCS in most of the patients was between 8 and 12. Staphylococcus aureus was the most frequently isolated organism (58.7%), with high sensitivity to Amikacin, Ciprofloxacin, and Teicoplanin (>92%); Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the second most frequent organism (17.4 percent); Acinetobacter isolates were potentially drug resistant, and only Amikacin was effective. Tracheal aspirates in combination with clinical findings show important roles in the management of VAP and decrease inappropriate antimicrobial therapy. S. aureus is the main agent leading to VAP in the TICU of the Loghman

Functional polymorphisms of interferon-gamma affect pneumonia-induced sepsis.

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Ding Wang

Full Text Available Sepsis is an inflammatory syndrome caused by infection, and both its incidence and mortality are high. Because interferon-gamma (IFN-γ plays an important role in inflammation, this work assessed IFN-γ single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs that may be associated with sepsis.A total of 196 patients with pneumonia-induced sepsis and 213 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers participated in our study from July 2012 to July 2013 in Guangzhou, China. Patient clinical information was collected. Clinical pathology was assessed in subgroups defined based on clinical criteria, APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation and SOFA (sepsis-related organ failure assessment scores and discharge rate. Four functional SNPs, -1616T/C (rs2069705, -764G/C (rs2069707, +874A/T (rs2430561 and +3234C/T (rs2069718, were genotyped by Snapshot in both sepsis patients and healthy controls. Pearson's chi-square test or Fisher's exact test were used to analyze the distribution of the SNPs, and the probability values (P values, odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated.No mutations in the IFN-γ -764G/C SNP were detected among the participants in our study. The +874A/T and +3234C/T SNPs were in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD (r(2 = 0.894. The -1616 TC+TT, +874 AT+AA genotype and the TAC haplotype were significantly associated with sepsis susceptibility, while the CTT haplotype was associated with protection against sepsis incidence. Genotype of -1616 TT wasn't only protective against severity of sepsis, but also against higher APACHE II and SOFA scores as +874 AA and +3234 CC. The TAC haplotype was was protective against progression to severe sepsis either.Our results suggest that functional IFN-γ SNPs and their haplotypes are associated with pneumonia-induced sepsis.

A-MUPS score to differentiate patients with somatic symptom disorder from those with medical disease for complaints of non-acute pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Shingo; Ohira, Yoshiyuki; Noda, Kazutaka; Ikusaka, Masatomi

2017-01-01

To develop a clinical score to discriminate patients with somatic symptom disorder (SSD) from those with medical disease (MD) for complaints of non-acute pain. We retrospectively examined the clinical records of consecutive patients with pain for a duration of ≥1 month in our department from April 2003 to March 2015. We divided the subjects according to the diagnoses of definite SSD (as diagnosed and tracked by psychiatrists in our hospital), probable SSD (without evaluation by psychiatrists in our hospital), matched MD (randomly matched two patients by age, sex, and pain location for each definite SSD patient), unmatched MD, other mental disease, or functional somatic syndrome (FSS). We investigated eight clinical factors for definite SSD and matched MD, and developed a diagnostic score to identify SSD. We subsequently validated the model with cases of probable SSD and unmatched MD. The number of patients with definite SSD, probable SSD, matched MD, unmatched MD, other mental disease, and FSS was 104 (3.5%), 214 (7.3%), 197 (6.7%), 742 (25%), 708 (24%), and 978 (33%), respectively. In a conditional logistic regression analysis, the following five factors were included as independent predictors of SSD: Analgesics ineffective, Mental disorder history, Unclear provocative/palliative factors, Persistence without cessation, and Stress feelings/episodes (A-MUPS). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model was 0.900 (95% CI: 0.864-0.937, p <0.001), and the McFadden's pseudo- R -squared was 0.709. For internal validation, the AUC between probable SSD and unmatched MD was 0.930 (95% CI: 0.910-0.950, p <0.001). The prevalence and the likelihood ratio of SSD increased as the score increased. The A-MUPS score was useful for discriminating patients with SSD from those with MD for complaints of non-acute pain, although external validation and refinement should be needed.

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

ReQON: a Bioconductor package for recalibrating quality scores from next-generation sequencing data

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Cabanski Christopher R

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Next-generation sequencing technologies have become important tools for genome-wide studies. However, the quality scores that are assigned to each base have been shown to be inaccurate. If the quality scores are used in downstream analyses, these inaccuracies can have a significant impact on the results. Results Here we present ReQON, a tool that recalibrates the base quality scores from an input BAM file of aligned sequencing data using logistic regression. ReQON also generates diagnostic plots showing the effectiveness of the recalibration. We show that ReQON produces quality scores that are both more accurate, in the sense that they more closely correspond to the probability of a sequencing error, and do a better job of discriminating between sequencing errors and non-errors than the original quality scores. We also compare ReQON to other available recalibration tools and show that ReQON is less biased and performs favorably in terms of quality score accuracy. Conclusion ReQON is an open source software package, written in R and available through Bioconductor, for recalibrating base quality scores for next-generation sequencing data. ReQON produces a new BAM file with more accurate quality scores, which can improve the results of downstream analysis, and produces several diagnostic plots showing the effectiveness of the recalibration.

Credit concession through credit scoring: Analysis and application proposal

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Oriol Amat

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study herein develops and tests a credit scoring model which can help financial institutions in assessing credit requests.  Design/methodology/approach: The empirical study has the objective of answering two questions: (1 Which ratios better discriminate the companies based on their being solvent or insolvent? and (2 What is the relative importance of these ratios? To do this, several statistical techniques with a multifactorial focus have been used (Multivariate Analysis of Variance, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit Models. Several samples of companies have been used in order to obtain and to test the model.  Findings: Through the application of several statistical techniques, the credit scoring model has been proved to be effective in discriminating between good and bad creditors.  Research limitations:  This study focuses on manufacturing, commercial and services companies of all sizes in Spain; Therefore, the conclusions may differ for other geographical locations. Practical implications:  Because credit is one of the main drivers of growth, a solid credit scoring model can help financial institutions assessing to whom to grant credit and to whom not to grant credit. Social implications: Because of the growing importance of credit for our society and the fear of granting it due to the latest financial turmoil, a solid credit scoring model can strengthen the trust toward the financial institutions assessment’s.  Originality/value: There is already a stream of literature related to credit scoring. However, this paper focuses on Spanish firms and proves the results of our model based on real data. The application of the model to detect the probability of default in loans is original.

Association between FDG uptake, CSF biomarkers and cognitive performance in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arlt, Soenke; Jahn, Holger; Eichenlaub, Martin; Brassen, Stefanie; Wilke, Florian; Apostolova, Ivayla; Buchert, Ralph; Wenzel, Fabian; Young, Stewart; Thiele, Frank

2009-01-01

Brain imaging of FDG uptake and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentration of amyloid-beta 1-42 (Aβ 1-42 ) or tau proteins are promising biomarkers in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). There is still uncertainty regarding any association between decreased FDG uptake and alterations in CSF markers. The relationship between FDG uptake, CSF Aβ 1-42 and total tau (T-tau), as well as the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score was investigated in 34 subjects with probable AD using step-wise linear regression. FDG uptake was scaled to the pons. Scaled FDG uptake was significantly reduced in the probable AD subjects compared to 17 controls bilaterally in the precuneus/posterior cingulate area, angular gyrus/inferior parietal cortex, inferior temporal/midtemporal cortex, midfrontal cortex, and left caudate. Voxel-based single-subject analysis of the probable AD subjects at p 1-42 . Scaled FDG uptake in the caudate was positively correlated with CSF T-tau. The extent and local severity of the reduction in FDG uptake in probable AD subjects are associated with cognitive impairment. In addition, there appears to be a relationship between local FDG uptake and CSF biomarkers which differs between different brain regions. (orig.)

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

VBAC Scoring: Successful vaginal delivery in previous one caesarean section in induced labour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raja, J.F.; Bangash, K.T.; Mahmud, G.

2013-01-01

Objective: To develop a scoring system for the prediction of successful vaginal birth after caesarean section, following induction of labour with intra-vaginal E2 gel (Glandin). Methods: The cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2010 to August 2011, at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences in Islamabad. Trial of labour in previous one caesarean section, undergoing induction with intra-vaginal E2 gel, was attempted in 100 women. They were scored according to six variables; maternal age; gestation; indications of previous caesarean; history of vaginal birth either before or after the previous caesarean; Bishop score and body mass index. Multivariate and univariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the scoring system. Results: Of the total, 67 (67%) women delivered vaginally, while 33 (33%) ended in repeat caesarean delivery. Among the subjects, 55 (55%) women had no history of vaginal delivery either before or after previous caesarean section; 15 (15%) had history of vaginal births both before and after the previous caesarean; while 30 (30%) had vaginal delivery only after the previous caesarean section. Rates of successful vaginal birth after caesarean increased from 38% in women having a score of 0-3 to 58% in patients scoring 4-6. Among those having a score of 7-9 and 10-12, the success rates were 71% and 86% respectively. Conclusion: Increasing scores correlated with the increasing probability of vaginal birth after caesarean undergoing induction of labour. The admission VBAC scoring system is useful in counselling women with previous caesarean for the option of induction of labour or repeat caesarean delivery. (author)

Association between FDG uptake, CSF biomarkers and cognitive performance in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arlt, Soenke; Jahn, Holger; Eichenlaub, Martin [University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Hamburg (Germany); Brassen, Stefanie [University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Institute for Systems Neuroscience, Hamburg (Germany); Wilke, Florian; Apostolova, Ivayla; Buchert, Ralph [University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Hamburg (Germany); Wenzel, Fabian; Young, Stewart [Philips Research, Digital Imaging Department, Hamburg (Germany); Thiele, Frank [Philips Research, Molecular Imaging Department, Aachen (Germany)

2009-07-15

Brain imaging of FDG uptake and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentration of amyloid-beta 1-42 (A{beta}{sub 1-42}) or tau proteins are promising biomarkers in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). There is still uncertainty regarding any association between decreased FDG uptake and alterations in CSF markers. The relationship between FDG uptake, CSF A{beta}{sub 1-42} and total tau (T-tau), as well as the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score was investigated in 34 subjects with probable AD using step-wise linear regression. FDG uptake was scaled to the pons. Scaled FDG uptake was significantly reduced in the probable AD subjects compared to 17 controls bilaterally in the precuneus/posterior cingulate area, angular gyrus/inferior parietal cortex, inferior temporal/midtemporal cortex, midfrontal cortex, and left caudate. Voxel-based single-subject analysis of the probable AD subjects at p < 0.001 (uncorrected) revealed a total volume of significant hypometabolism ranging from 0 to 452 ml (median 70 ml). The total hypometabolic volume was negatively correlated with the MMSE score, but it was not correlated with the CSF measures. VOI-based step-wise linear regression revealed that scaled FDG uptake in the precuneus/posterior cingulate was negatively correlated with CSF A{beta}{sub 1-42}. Scaled FDG uptake in the caudate was positively correlated with CSF T-tau. The extent and local severity of the reduction in FDG uptake in probable AD subjects are associated with cognitive impairment. In addition, there appears to be a relationship between local FDG uptake and CSF biomarkers which differs between different brain regions. (orig.)

Comparison of Cerebral Glucose Metabolism between Possible and Probable Multiple System Atrophy

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Kyum-Yil Kwon

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Background: To investigate the relationship between presenting clinical manifestations and imaging features of multisystem neuronal dysfunction in MSA patients, using 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET. Methods: We studied 50 consecutive MSA patients with characteristic brain MRI findings of MSA, including 34 patients with early MSA-parkinsonian (MSA-P and 16 with early MSA-cerebellar (MSA-C. The cerebral glucose metabolism of all MSA patients was evaluated in comparison with 25 age-matched controls. 18F-FDG PET results were assessed by the Statistic Parametric Mapping (SPM analysis and the regions of interest (ROI method. Results: The mean time from disease onset to 18F-FDG PET was 25.9±13.0 months in 34 MSA-P patients and 20.1±11.1 months in 16 MSA-C patients. Glucose metabolism of the putamen showed a greater decrease in possible MSA-P than in probable MSA-P (p=0.031. Although the Unified Multiple System Atrophy Rating Scale (UMSARS score did not differ between possible MSA-P and probable MSA-P, the subscores of rigidity (p=0.04 and bradykinesia (p= 0.008 were significantly higher in possible MSA-P than in probable MSA-P. Possible MSA-C showed a greater decrease in glucose metabolism of the cerebellum than probable MSA-C (p=0.016. Conclusions: Our results may suggest that the early neuropathological pattern of possible MSA with a predilection for the striatonigral or olivopontocerebellar system differs from that of probable MSA, which has prominent involvement of the autonomic nervous system in addition to the striatonigral or olivopontocerebellar system.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

Suitability of linear scoring in meat sheep: the practical case of Merinizzata Italiana breed

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Andrea Giontella

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Linear scoring is widely applied in domestic animal species, mainly in cattle and horses. There are only few cases of linear scoring in sheep, probably because the small body size and the narrow range of the classes make difficult to correctly evaluate the measures. In this paper the results of a linear scoring test carried out on Merinizzata Italiana sheep breed in order to verify the feasibility of this method in sheep, are reported. Twenty untrained people, with three different levels of scoring experience in meat sheep morphology, evaluated 52 pluriparous ewes for body length, chest circumference, chest width, rump height, rump width, and withers height; to check for misclassification, their scores were compared with a reference score, previously obtained measuring the same animals by the suitable tools (measuring tape and a Lydtin stick. The percentage of correct scoring ranged from 44.4% for body length to 61.8% for withers height, and was not affected by the experience of the judge. In all characters, the distance of the class from the trait mean had a significant effect in increasing the intensity of misclassifications; the judge’s experience showed a positive effect in reducing the intensity of the misclassification for body length, that was the hardest trait to score. These results encourage to further verifying in practice the linear scoring in the Merinizzata Italiana sheep and in other meat breeds.

Diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability in an anti-crisis management: modern approaches and classification of models

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I.V. Zhalinska

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Diagnostics of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability is defined as an important tool ensuring the viability of an organization under conditions of unpredictable dynamic environment. The paper aims to define the basic features of diagnostics of bankruptcy occurrence probability models and their classification. The article grounds the objective increasing of crisis probability in modern enterprises where such increasing leads to the need to improve the efficiency of anti-crisis enterprise activities. The system of anti-crisis management is based on the subsystem of diagnostics of bankruptcy occurrence probability. Such a subsystem is the main one for further measures to prevent and overcome the crisis. The classification of existing models of enterprise bankruptcy occurrence probability has been suggested. The classification is based on methodical and methodological principles of models. The following main groups of models are determined: the models using financial ratios, aggregates and scores, the models of discriminated analysis, the methods of strategic analysis, informal models, artificial intelligence systems and the combination of the models. The classification made it possible to identify the analytical capabilities of each of the groups of models suggested.

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

THE APACHE POINT OBSERVATORY GALACTIC EVOLUTION EXPERIMENT: FIRST DETECTION OF HIGH-VELOCITY MILKY WAY BAR STARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nidever, David L.; Zasowski, Gail; Majewski, Steven R.; Beaton, Rachael L.; Wilson, John C.; Skrutskie, Michael F.; O' Connell, Robert W. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Bird, Jonathan; Schoenrich, Ralph; Johnson, Jennifer A.; Sellgren, Kris [Department of Astronomy and the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Robin, Annie C.; Schultheis, Mathias [Institut Utinam, CNRS UMR 6213, OSU THETA, Universite de Franche-Comte, 41bis avenue de l' Observatoire, F-25000 Besancon (France); Martinez-Valpuesta, Inma; Gerhard, Ortwin [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstrasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Shetrone, Matthew [McDonald Observatory, University of Texas at Austin, Fort Davis, TX 79734 (United States); Schiavon, Ricardo P. [Gemini Observatory, 670 North A' Ohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Weiner, Benjamin [Steward Observatory, 933 North Cherry Street, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Schneider, Donald P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Allende Prieto, Carlos, E-mail: dln5q@virginia.edu [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); and others

2012-08-20

Commissioning observations with the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III, have produced radial velocities (RVs) for {approx}4700 K/M-giant stars in the Milky Way (MW) bulge. These high-resolution (R {approx} 22, 500), high-S/N (>100 per resolution element), near-infrared (NIR; 1.51-1.70 {mu}m) spectra provide accurate RVs ({epsilon}{sub V} {approx} 0.2 km s{sup -1}) for the sample of stars in 18 Galactic bulge fields spanning -1 Degree-Sign -32 Degree-Sign . This represents the largest NIR high-resolution spectroscopic sample of giant stars ever assembled in this region of the Galaxy. A cold ({sigma}{sub V} {approx} 30 km s{sup -1}), high-velocity peak (V{sub GSR} Almost-Equal-To +200 km s{sup -1}) is found to comprise a significant fraction ({approx}10%) of stars in many of these fields. These high RVs have not been detected in previous MW surveys and are not expected for a simple, circularly rotating disk. Preliminary distance estimates rule out an origin from the background Sagittarius tidal stream or a new stream in the MW disk. Comparison to various Galactic models suggests that these high RVs are best explained by stars in orbits of the Galactic bar potential, although some observational features remain unexplained.

The dimensionality of stellar chemical space using spectra from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Price-Jones, Natalie; Bovy, Jo

2018-03-01

Chemical tagging of stars based on their similar compositions can offer new insights about the star formation and dynamical history of the Milky Way. We investigate the feasibility of identifying groups of stars in chemical space by forgoing the use of model derived abundances in favour of direct analysis of spectra. This facilitates the propagation of measurement uncertainties and does not pre-suppose knowledge of which elements are important for distinguishing stars in chemical space. We use ˜16 000 red giant and red clump H-band spectra from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and perform polynomial fits to remove trends not due to abundance-ratio variations. Using expectation maximized principal component analysis, we find principal components with high signal in the wavelength regions most important for distinguishing between stars. Different subsamples of red giant and red clump stars are all consistent with needing about 10 principal components to accurately model the spectra above the level of the measurement uncertainties. The dimensionality of stellar chemical space that can be investigated in the H band is therefore ≲10. For APOGEE observations with typical signal-to-noise ratios of 100, the number of chemical space cells within which stars cannot be distinguished is approximately 1010±2 × (5 ± 2)n - 10 with n the number of principal components. This high dimensionality and the fine-grained sampling of chemical space are a promising first step towards chemical tagging based on spectra alone.

Fluid balance and chloride load in the first 24h of ICU admission and its relation with renal replacement therapies through a multicentre, retrospective, case-control study paired by APACHE-II.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Castro, A; Ortiz-Lasa, M; Leizaola, O; Salgado, E; Irriguible, T; Sánchez-Satorra, M; Lomas-Fernández, C; Barral-Segade, P; Cordero-Vallejo, M; Rodrigo-Calabia, E; Dierssen-Sotos, T

2017-05-01

To analyse the association between water balance during the first 24h of admission to ICU and the variables related to chloride levels (chloride loading, type of fluid administered, hyperchloraemia), with the development of acute kidney injury renal replacement therapy (AKI-RRT) during patients' admission to ICU. Multicentre case-control study. Hospital-based, national, carried out in 6 ICUs. Cases were patients older than 18 years who developed an AKI-RRT. Controls were patients older than 18 years admitted to the same institutions during the study period, who did not develop AKI-RRT during ICU admission. Pairing was done by APACHE-II. An analysis of unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, APACHE-II and water balance (in evaluating the type of fluid). We analysed the variables of 430 patients: 215 cases and 215 controls. An increase of 10% of the possibility of developing AKI-RRT per 500ml of positive water balance was evident (OR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.05 to 1.14]; P<.001). The study of mean values of chloride load administered did not show differences between the group of cases and controls (299.35±254.91 vs. 301.67±234.63; P=.92). The water balance in the first 24h of ICU admission relates to the development of IRA-TRR, regardless of chloraemia. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Inter-reader agreement of multi-parametric MR imaging for the detection of prostate cancer. Evaluation of a scoring system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quentin, M.; Roehlen, S.; Klasen, J.; Antoch, G.; Blondin, D.; Arsov, C.; Albers, P.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Functional prostate MR is performed in varying combinations of T2-weighted images with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), and spectroscopic imaging (MRSI). Recently, a European consensus meeting proposed the use of a simple 5-point scale for estimating the probability of a lesion being malignant. The aim of the present study was to determine the inter-reader agreement of MR imaging using a scoring system based on the recommendations of the consensus. Materials and Methods: The appearance of 108 predefined lesions in three different MR sequences (T2-weighted images, DWI, and DCE-MRI) in 50 functional prostate MR examinations were retrospectively scored by three blinded radiologists using a 5-point scale for each MR sequence. After scoring T2/DWI and T2/DWI/DCE-MRI, every lesion was graded based on its probability for malignancy. The inter-observer reliability was evaluated using Kappa statistics (Κ). Results: With respect to T2-weighted images, DWI and DCE-MRI Κ was 0.49, 0.97, and 0.77, respectively. Combined scoring of T2-weighted images and DWI demonstrated correct tumor diagnosis (true positive) in 71 - 88 % (depending on reader) of cases (Κ = 0.78). The accuracy was further improved to 88 - 96 % after scoring all three MR sequences including DCE-MRI (Κ = 0.90). Conclusion: The use of a simple 5-point scoring system for T2-weighted images, DWI, and DCE-MRI is feasible in functional prostate MRI and has high inter-observer reliability.

A new method for prediction of the hospitalization period in ICU using neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adel Alinezhad Kolaei

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction:APACHE (Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation score is a medical tool designed to measure the severity of disease for adult patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICU. However, it is designed based on the American patients’ data and is not well suited to be used for Iranian people. In addition, Iranian hospitals are not equipped with High Dependency Units which is required for original APACHE. Method: We aimed to design an intelligent version of APACHE system for recognition of patients’ hospitalization period in ICUs. The new system can be designed based on Iranian local data and updated locally. Intelligence means that the system has the ability to learn from its previous results and doesn’t need manual update. Results: In this study, this new system is introduced and the technical specifications are presented. It is based on neural networks. It can be trained and is capable of auto-learning. The results obtained from final implemented software show better performance than those obtained from non-local version. Conclusion: Using this method, the efficiency of the prediction has increased from 80% to 90%. Such results were compared with the APACHE outputs to show the superiority of the proposed method.

The Zhongshan Score

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-01-01

Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Re-Scoring the Game’s Score

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gasselseder, Hans-Peter

2014-01-01

This study explores immersive presence as well as emotional valence and arousal in the context of dynamic and non-dynamic music scores in the 3rd person action-adventure video game genre while also considering relevant personality traits of the player. 60 subjects answered self-report questionnai......This study explores immersive presence as well as emotional valence and arousal in the context of dynamic and non-dynamic music scores in the 3rd person action-adventure video game genre while also considering relevant personality traits of the player. 60 subjects answered self......-temporal alignment in the resulting emotional congruency of nondiegetic music. Whereas imaginary aspects of immersive presence are systemically affected by the presentation of dynamic music, sensory spatial aspects show higher sensitivity towards the arousal potential of the music score. It is argued...

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

College Math Assessment: SAT Scores vs. College Math Placement Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Foley-Peres, Kathleen; Poirier, Dawn

2008-01-01

Many colleges and university's use SAT math scores or math placement tests to place students in the appropriate math course. This study compares the use of math placement scores and SAT scores for 188 freshman students. The student's grades and faculty observations were analyzed to determine if the SAT scores and/or college math assessment scores…

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Real Time Robot Soccer Game Event Detection Using Finite State Machines with Multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elmer P. Dadios

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new algorithm for real time event detection using Finite State Machines with multiple Fuzzy Logic Probability Evaluators (FLPEs. A machine referee for a robot soccer game is developed and is used as the platform to test the proposed algorithm. A novel technique to detect collisions and other events in microrobot soccer game under inaccurate and insufficient information is presented. The robots' collision is used to determine goalkeeper charging and goal score events which are crucial for the machine referee's decisions. The Main State Machine (MSM handles the schedule of event activation. The FLPE calculates the probabilities of the true occurrence of the events. Final decisions about the occurrences of events are evaluated and compared through threshold crisp probability values. The outputs of FLPEs can be combined to calculate the probability of an event composed of subevents. Using multiple fuzzy logic system, the FLPE utilizes minimal number of rules and can be tuned individually. Experimental results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm.

Field studies at the Apache Leap Research Site in support of alternative conceptual models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodhouse, E.G.; Davidson, G.R.; Theis, C. [eds.] [and others

1997-08-01

This is a final technical report for a project of the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission (sponsored contract NRC-04-090-51) with the University of Arizona. The contract was an optional extension that was initiated on July 21, 1994 and that expired on May 31, 1995. The project manager was Thomas J. Nicholson, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objectives of this contract were to examine hypotheses and conceptual models concerning unsaturated flow and transport through fractured rock, and to design and execute confirmatory field and laboratory experiments to test these hypotheses and conceptual models at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. The results discussed here are products of specific tasks that address a broad spectrum of issues related to flow and transport through fractures. Each chapter in this final report summarizes research related to a specific set of objectives and can be read and interpreted as a separate entity. The tasks include detection and characterization of historical rapid fluid flow through fractured rock and the relationship to perched water systems using environmental isotopic tracers of {sup 3}H and {sup 14}C, fluid- and rock-derived {sup 2343}U/{sup 238}U measurements, and geophysical data. The water balance in a small watershed at the ALRS demonstrates the methods of acounting for ET, and estimating the quantity of water available for infiltration through fracture networks. Grain density measurements were made for core-sized samples using a newly designed gas pycnometer. The distribution and magnitude of air permeability measurements have been measured in a three-dimensional setting; the subsequent geostatistical analysis is presented. Electronic versions of the data presented here are available from authors; more detailed discussions and analyses are available in technical publications referenced herein, or soon to appear in the professional literature.

Field studies at the Apache Leap Research Site in support of alternative conceptual models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodhouse, E.G.; Davidson, G.R.; Theis, C.

1997-08-01

This is a final technical report for a project of the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission (sponsored contract NRC-04-090-51) with the University of Arizona. The contract was an optional extension that was initiated on July 21, 1994 and that expired on May 31, 1995. The project manager was Thomas J. Nicholson, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objectives of this contract were to examine hypotheses and conceptual models concerning unsaturated flow and transport through fractured rock, and to design and execute confirmatory field and laboratory experiments to test these hypotheses and conceptual models at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. The results discussed here are products of specific tasks that address a broad spectrum of issues related to flow and transport through fractures. Each chapter in this final report summarizes research related to a specific set of objectives and can be read and interpreted as a separate entity. The tasks include detection and characterization of historical rapid fluid flow through fractured rock and the relationship to perched water systems using environmental isotopic tracers of 3 H and 14 C, fluid- and rock-derived 2343 U/ 238 U measurements, and geophysical data. The water balance in a small watershed at the ALRS demonstrates the methods of acounting for ET, and estimating the quantity of water available for infiltration through fracture networks. Grain density measurements were made for core-sized samples using a newly designed gas pycnometer. The distribution and magnitude of air permeability measurements have been measured in a three-dimensional setting; the subsequent geostatistical analysis is presented. Electronic versions of the data presented here are available from authors; more detailed discussions and analyses are available in technical publications referenced herein, or soon to appear in the professional literature

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

Exploring a Source of Uneven Score Equity across the Test Score Range

Science.gov (United States)

Huggins-Manley, Anne Corinne; Qiu, Yuxi; Penfield, Randall D.

2018-01-01

Score equity assessment (SEA) refers to an examination of population invariance of equating across two or more subpopulations of test examinees. Previous SEA studies have shown that score equity may be present for examinees scoring at particular test score ranges but absent for examinees scoring at other score ranges. No studies to date have…

Time-series models on somatic cell score improve detection of matistis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Norberg, E; Korsgaard, I R; Sloth, K H M N

2008-01-01

In-line detection of mastitis using frequent milk sampling was studied in 241 cows in a Danish research herd. Somatic cell scores obtained at a daily basis were analyzed using a mixture of four time-series models. Probabilities were assigned to each model for the observations to belong to a normal...... "steady-state" development, change in "level", change of "slope" or "outlier". Mastitis was indicated from the sum of probabilities for the "level" and "slope" models. Time-series models were based on the Kalman filter. Reference data was obtained from veterinary assessment of health status combined...... with bacteriological findings. At a sensitivity of 90% the corresponding specificity was 68%, which increased to 83% using a one-step back smoothing. It is concluded that mixture models based on Kalman filters are efficient in handling in-line sensor data for detection of mastitis and may be useful for similar...

Test-retest reliability of the Middlesex Assessment of Mental State (MEAMS): a preliminary investigation in people with probable dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, T; Brooker, D J; Papadopolous, A

1993-05-01

Relative and absolute test-retest reliability of the MEAMS was examined in 12 subjects with probable dementia and 12 matched controls. Relative reliability was good. Measures of absolute reliability showed scores changing by up to 3 points over an interval of a week. A version effect was found to be in evidence.

Investigation on Abnormal Iron Metabolism and Related Inflammation in Parkinson Disease Patients with Probable RBD

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yang; Yu, Shu-Yang; Zuo, Li-Jun; Piao, Ying-Shan; Cao, Chen-Jie; Wang, Fang; Chen, Ze-Jie; Du, Yang; Lian, Teng-Hong; Liu, Gai-Fen; Wang, Ya-Jie; Chan, Piu; Chen, Sheng-Di; Wang, Xiao-Min; Zhang, Wei

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate potential mechanisms involving abnormal iron metabolism and related inflammation in Parkinson disease (PD) patients with probable rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (PRBD). Methods Total 210 PD patients and 31 controls were consecutively recruited. PD patients were evaluated by RBD Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ) and classified into PRBD and probable no RBD (NPRBD) groups. Demographics information were recorded and clinical symptoms were evaluated by series of rating scales. Levels of iron and related proteins and inflammatory factors in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum were detected. Comparisons among control, NPRBD and PRBD groups and correlation analyses between RBDSQ score and levels of above factors were performed. Results (1)The frequency of PRBD in PD patients is 31.90%. (2)PRBD group has longer disease duration, more advanced disease stage, severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms than NPRBD group. (3)In CSF, levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PRBD group are prominently increased. RBDSQ score is positively correlated with the levels of iron, transferrin, NO and IL–1β in PD group. Iron level is positively correlated with the levels of NO and IL–1β in PD group. (4)In serum, transferrin level is prominently decreased in PRBD group. PGE2 level in PRBD group is drastically enhanced. RBDSQ score exhibits a positive correlation with PGE2 level in PD group. Conclusions PRBD is common in PD patients. PRBD group has severer motor symptoms and more non-motor symptoms. Excessive iron in brain resulted from abnormal iron metabolism in central and peripheral systems is correlated with PRBD through neuroinflammation. PMID:26431210

Introduction to probability with Mathematica

CERN Document Server

Hastings, Kevin J

2009-01-01

Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Predictive value of early phrase echocardiography and cardiac biological markers in patients with severe sepsis: a five-year single-center retrospective study].

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Xuefeng; Chen, Wei; Sheng, Bo; Zhao, Lei; Gu, Xuyun; Zhen, Jie; Liu, Ping

2018-04-01

To assess the predictive value of early phrase echocardiography and cardiac biomarkers in patients with severe sepsis. A retrospective analysis of severe septic patients (patients with acute coronary syndrome and end stage renal disease were excluded) in department of intensive care unit of Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Shijitan Hospital from January 2013 to December 2017 was conducted. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), myoglobin (MYO), creatine kinase (CK), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB) within 6 hours after admission, and bedside echocardiography indexes [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), the ratio of the peak blood flow velocity in the early stage of the mitral valve and the peak blood flow rate of the mitral valve (E/A ratio)] within 6 hours after diagnosis were recorded. The differences of indexes between patients with decreased contractile function (LVEF value in severe sepsis patients. (1) A total of 316 patients were enrolled in the survey period. Decreased cardiac systolic function (LVEF value for prognosis in severe sepsis patient, among which NT-proBNP and cTnI had higher predictive value [the area under ROC curve (AUC) were 0.920 and 0.901 respectively, both P values measured by echocardiography in early phrase were unrelated to 28-day prognosis. APACHE II score, E/A ratio, NT-proBNP, cTnI, MYO, CK and CK-MB were related to 28-day prognosis. APACHE II scores and NT-proBNP were independent prognostic factors in severe sepsis patient.

The normal transverse mesocolon and involvement of the mesocolon in acute pancreatitis: an MRI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Xiao Xiao; Zhang, Xiao Ming; Chen, Tian Wu; Huang, Xiao Hua; Yang, Lin; Tang, Wei; Xiao, Bo

2014-01-01

To study the MRI findings of the normal transverse mesocolon and the involvement of the mesocolon in acute pancreatitis (AP) as well as the relationship between the involvement of the mesocolon and the severity of AP. Forty patients without pancreatic disorders were retrospectively analyzed to observe the normal transverse mesocolon using MRI; 210 patients with AP confirmed by clinical and laboratory tests were retrospectively analyzed using MRI to observe transverse-mesocolon involvement (TMI). The severity of TMI was recorded as zero points (no abnormalities and transverse-mesocolon vessel involvement), one point (linear and patchy signal in the transverse mesocolon) or two points (transverse-mesocolon effusion). The AP severity was graded by the MRI severity index (MRSI) and the Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system. The correlations of TMI with MRSI and APACHE-II were analyzed. In a normal transverse mesocolon, the display rates of the middle colic artery, the middle colic vein and the gastrocolic trunk on MRI were 95.0%, 82.5% and 100.0%, respectively. Of the 210 patients with AP, 130 patients (61.9%) had TMI. According to the TMI grading, 40%, 39% and 20% of the patients were graded at zero, one and two points, respectively. TMI was strongly correlated with the MRSI score (r = 0.759, P = 0.000) and the APACHE-II score (r = 0.384, P = 0.000). MRI could be used to visualize transverse-mesocolon involvement. The severity of TMI could reflect that of AP in the clinical setting and imaging. TMI might be a supplementary indicator of the severity of AP.

Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin is an excellent predictor of mortality in intensive care unit patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haifa M. Algethamy

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To assess urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL level as a potential predictor of acute kidney injury (AKI, and both intensive care unit (ICU and in-hospital mortality. Methods: Patients presenting to our ICU with a systolic blood pressure (SBP less than 90 mmHg or mean arterial pressure (MAP less than 65 mmHg, and no prior kidney disease were followed prospectively. Baseline data were collected on patient demographics, admission diagnosis, APACHE II and SOFA scores, SBP, MAP, serum creatinine and cystatin C, and uNGAL. Patients were monitored throughout hospitalization, including daily uNGAL, serum creatinine and cystatin C, and continuous MAP. Bivariate analysis compared those dying in the ICU and in-hospital versus survivors; with hierarchical binary logistic regression used to identify predictors of mortality. Areas under receiver-operating-characteristic curves (AUC were used to measure sensitivity and specificity at different uNGAL thresholds. Results: Among 75 patients followed, 16 died in the ICU, and another 24 prior to hospital discharge. Mortality rates were greatest in trauma and sepsis patients. The ICU survivors differed from non-survivors in almost all clinical variables; but only 2 predicted ICU mortality on multivariate analysis: day one uNGAL (p=0.01 and 24-hour APACHE II score (p=0.07. Only the APACHE II score significantly predicted in-hospital mortality (p=0.003. The AUC for day one uNGAL was greater for ICU (AUC=0.85 than in-hospital mortality (AUC=0.74. Conclusions: Day one uNGAL is a highly accurate predictor of ICU, but less so for in-hospital mortality.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: I. Long-term prognostic scores].

Science.gov (United States)

Junod, Alain F

2013-10-16

The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or COPD will probably be in the year 2020 the third cause of death in the world. It appears therefore appropriate to try to make available tools capable of assessing the prognosis of patients with this disease. In the first part of this series of two papers, the question of the prognosis of stable COPD over several years is addressed. Eight prognostic scores are discussed, all of them published between 2004 and 2012. Their components and characteristics are analysed and commented upon, with, in particular, emphasis on their discriminating power. An Internet program (www.medhyg. ch/scoredoc) supplements this review.

After critical care: patient support after critical care. A mixed method longitudinal study using email interviews and questionnaires.

Science.gov (United States)

Pattison, Natalie; O'Gara, Geraldine; Rattray, Janice

2015-08-01

To explore experiences and needs over time, of patients discharged from ICU using the Intensive Care Experience (ICE-q) questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and EuroQoL (EQ-5D), associated clinical predictors (APACHE II, TISS, Length of stay, RIKER scores) and in-depth email interviewing. A mixed-method, longitudinal study of patients with >48hour ICU stays at 2 weeks, 6 months, 12 months using the ICE-q, HADS, EQ-5D triangulated with clinical predictors, including age, gender, length of stay (ICU and hospital), APACHE II and TISS. In-depth qualitative email interviews were completed at 1 month and 6 months. Grounded Theory analysis was applied to interview data and data were triangulated with questionnaire and clinical data. Data was collected from January 2010 to March 2012 from 77 participants. Both mean EQ-5D visual analogue scale, utility scores and HADS scores improved from 2 weeks to 6 months, (p=Email interviews offer a convenient method of gaining in-depth interview data and could be used as part of ICU follow-up. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

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Bryan eCort

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Jiancang; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Jiang, Changsheng; Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

2010-05-01

This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin's predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L'aquila earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model.

Effect of playing tactics on goal scoring in Norwegian professional soccer.

Science.gov (United States)

Tenga, Albin; Holme, Ingar; Ronglan, Lars Tore; Bahr, Roald

2010-02-01

Methods that include an assessment of opponent interactions are thought to provide a more valid analysis of team match performance. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of playing tactics on goal scoring by assessing opponent interactions in Norwegian elite soccer. The sample included 203 team possessions leading to goals (cases) and 1688 random team possessions (control group) from 163 of 182 (90%) matches played in the men's professional league during the 2004 season. Multidimensional qualitative data using ten ordered categorical variables were obtained to characterize each team possession. The proportion of goals scored during counterattacks (52%) was higher than during elaborate attacks (48%), while for the control group the proportion using elaborate attacks (59%) was higher than when using counterattacks (41%) (P = 0.002). Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that, for the main variable "team possession type", counterattacks were more effective than elaborate attacks when playing against an imbalanced defence (OR = 1.64; 95% confidence interval: 1.03 to 2.61; P = 0.038). Assessment of opponent interactions is critical to evaluate the effectiveness of offensive playing tactics on the probability of scoring goals, and improves the validity of team match-performance analysis in soccer.

A first course in probability

CERN Document Server

Ross, Sheldon

2014-01-01

A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Estimating Subjective Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

2014-01-01

either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Stanzani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Ultrasonography-guided percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinomas: A feasibility scoring system for planning sonography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhim, Hyunchul; Choi, Dongil; Kim, Young-sun; Lim, Hyo K.; Choe, Bong-Keun

2010-01-01

to predict complication and local tumor progression (Fisher's exact test, p > 0.05). Contrary to the safety score for the probability of complication (p > 0.05), the curability score was significantly associated with the probability of local tumor progression (likelihood ratio test for trend; p = 0.03). Conclusion: The new feasibility scoring system for planning US can be used as objective criteria to predict therapeutic efficacy rather than the safety of percutaneous RFA of an HCC.

Ensemble based system for whole-slide prostate cancer probability mapping using color texture features.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

DiFranco, Matthew D

2011-01-01

We present a tile-based approach for producing clinically relevant probability maps of prostatic carcinoma in histological sections from radical prostatectomy. Our methodology incorporates ensemble learning for feature selection and classification on expert-annotated images. Random forest feature selection performed over varying training sets provides a subset of generalized CIEL*a*b* co-occurrence texture features, while sample selection strategies with minimal constraints reduce training data requirements to achieve reliable results. Ensembles of classifiers are built using expert-annotated tiles from training images, and scores for the probability of cancer presence are calculated from the responses of each classifier in the ensemble. Spatial filtering of tile-based texture features prior to classification results in increased heat-map coherence as well as AUC values of 95% using ensembles of either random forests or support vector machines. Our approach is designed for adaptation to different imaging modalities, image features, and histological decision domains.

Derivation and validation of the prediabetes self-assessment screening score after acute pancreatitis (PERSEUS).

Science.gov (United States)

Soo, Danielle H E; Pendharkar, Sayali A; Jivanji, Chirag J; Gillies, Nicola A; Windsor, John A; Petrov, Maxim S

2017-10-01

Approximately 40% of patients develop abnormal glucose metabolism after a single episode of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediabetes self-assessment screening score for patients after acute pancreatitis. Data from non-overlapping training (n=82) and validation (n=80) cohorts were analysed. Univariate logistic and linear regression identified variables associated with prediabetes after acute pancreatitis. Multivariate logistic regression developed the score, ranging from 0 to 215. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 statistic, and calibration plots were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. The developed score was validated using data from the validation cohort. The score had an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 statistic of 5.75 (p=0.676). Patients with a score of ≥75 had a 94.1% probability of having prediabetes, and were 29 times more likely to have prediabetes than those with a score of <75. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 statistic was 5.50 (p=0.599). Model calibration of the score showed good calibration in both cohorts. The developed and validated score, called PERSEUS, is the first instrument to identify individuals who are at high risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism following an episode of acute pancreatitis. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aplicación de las redes neuronales artificiales para la estratificación de riesgo de mortalidad hospitalaria Application of artificial neural networks for risk stratification of hospital mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Trujillano

2003-12-01

predict hospital mortality with that of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II system and multiple logistic regression (LR. A secondary objective was to compare the allocation of individual probability among the models. Method: The variables required for calculating the APACHE II were prospectively collected. A total of 1146 patients were divided (randomly 70% and 30% into the Development (800 and the Validation (346 sets. With the same variables an LR model and an ANN were carried out (a 3-layer perceptron trained by algorithm backpropagation with bootstrap resampling and with 9 nodes in the hidden layer in the Development set. The models developed were contrasted with the Validation set and their discrimination properties were evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC [95% CI] and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow C (HLC test. Differences between the probabilities were evaluated using the Bland-Altman test. Results: The Validation set showed an APACHE II with an AUC = 0.79 (0.75-0.84 and HLC = 11 (p = 0.329; LR model AUC = 0.81 (0.76-0.85 and HLC = 29 (p = 0.0001 and an ANN AUC = 0.82 (0.77-0.86 and HLC = 10 (p = 0.404. The patients with the most important differences in the allocation of probability between LR and ANN (8% of the total were neurological. The worst results were found in trauma patients with an AUC of not greater than 0.75 in all the models. In respiratory patients, the ANN achieved the best AUC = 0.87 (0.78-0.91. Conclusions: The ANN was able to stratify hospital mortality risk by using the APACHE II system variables. The ANN tended to achieve better results than LR, since, in order to work, it does not require lineal restrictions or independent variables. Allocation of individual probability differed in each model.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

Lod scores for gene mapping in the presence of marker map uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Stringham, H M; Boehnke, M

2001-07-01

Multipoint lod scores are typically calculated for a grid of locus positions, moving the putative disease locus across a fixed map of genetic markers. Changing the order of a set of markers and/or the distances between the markers can make a substantial difference in the resulting lod score curve and the location and height of its maximum. The typical approach of using the best maximum likelihood marker map is not easily justified if other marker orders are nearly as likely and give substantially different lod score curves. To deal with this problem, we propose three weighted multipoint lod score statistics that make use of information from all plausible marker orders. In each of these statistics, the information conditional on a particular marker order is included in a weighted sum, with weight equal to the posterior probability of that order. We evaluate the type 1 error rate and power of these three statistics on the basis of results from simulated data, and compare these results to those obtained using the best maximum likelihood map and the map with the true marker order. We find that the lod score based on a weighted sum of maximum likelihoods improves on using only the best maximum likelihood map, having a type 1 error rate and power closest to that of using the true marker order in the simulation scenarios we considered. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Comparison of the diagnostic ability of Moorfield’s regression analysis and glaucoma probability score using Heidelberg retinal tomograph III in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma

Science.gov (United States)

Jindal, Shveta; Dada, Tanuj; Sreenivas, V; Gupta, Viney; Sihota, Ramanjit; Panda, Anita

2010-01-01

Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Heidelberg retinal tomograph (HRT) glaucoma probability score (GPS) with that of Moorfield’s regression analysis (MRA). Materials and Methods: The study included 50 eyes of normal subjects and 50 eyes of subjects with early-to-moderate primary open angle glaucoma. Images were obtained by using HRT version 3.0. Results: The agreement coefficient (weighted k) for the overall MRA and GPS classification was 0.216 (95% CI: 0.119 – 0.315). The sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the most specific (borderline results included as test negatives) and least specific criteria (borderline results included as test positives). The MRA sensitivity and specificity were 30.61 and 98% (most specific) and 57.14 and 98% (least specific). The GPS sensitivity and specificity were 81.63 and 73.47% (most specific) and 95.92 and 34.69% (least specific). The MRA gave a higher positive likelihood ratio (28.57 vs. 3.08) and the GPS gave a higher negative likelihood ratio (0.25 vs. 0.44).The sensitivity increased with increasing disc size for both MRA and GPS. Conclusions: There was a poor agreement between the overall MRA and GPS classifications. GPS tended to have higher sensitivities, lower specificities, and lower likelihood ratios than the MRA. The disc size should be taken into consideration when interpreting the results of HRT, as both the GPS and MRA showed decreased sensitivity for smaller discs and the GPS showed decreased specificity for larger discs. PMID:20952832

Comparison of the diagnostic ability of Moorfield′s regression analysis and glaucoma probability score using Heidelberg retinal tomograph III in eyes with primary open angle glaucoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindal Shveta

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Heidelberg retinal tomograph (HRT glaucoma probability score (GPS with that of Moorfield′s regression analysis (MRA. Materials and Methods: The study included 50 eyes of normal subjects and 50 eyes of subjects with early-to-moderate primary open angle glaucoma. Images were obtained by using HRT version 3.0. Results: The agreement coefficient (weighted k for the overall MRA and GPS classification was 0.216 (95% CI: 0.119 - 0.315. The sensitivity and specificity were evaluated using the most specific (borderline results included as test negatives and least specific criteria (borderline results included as test positives. The MRA sensitivity and specificity were 30.61 and 98% (most specific and 57.14 and 98% (least specific. The GPS sensitivity and specificity were 81.63 and 73.47% (most specific and 95.92 and 34.69% (least specific. The MRA gave a higher positive likelihood ratio (28.57 vs. 3.08 and the GPS gave a higher negative likelihood ratio (0.25 vs. 0.44.The sensitivity increased with increasing disc size for both MRA and GPS. Conclusions: There was a poor agreement between the overall MRA and GPS classifications. GPS tended to have higher sensitivities, lower specificities, and lower likelihood ratios than the MRA. The disc size should be taken into consideration when interpreting the results of HRT, as both the GPS and MRA showed decreased sensitivity for smaller discs and the GPS showed decreased specificity for larger discs.

Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varacca, Daniele

Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

Ignition Probability

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

[Combined forecasting system of peritonitis outcome].

Science.gov (United States)

Lebedev, N V; Klimov, A E; Agrba, S B; Gaidukevich, E K

To create a reliable system for assessing of severity and prediction of the outcome of peritonitis. Critical analysis of the systems for peritonitis severity assessment is presented. The study included outcomes of 347 patients who admitted at the Department of Faculty Surgery of Peoples' Friendship University of Russia in 2015-2016. The cause of peritonitis were destructive forms of acute appendicitis, cholecystitis, perforated gastroduodenal ulcer, various perforation of small and large intestines (including tumor). Combined forecasting system for peritonitis severity assessment is created. The system includes clinical, laboratory data, assessment of systemic inflammatory response (SIRS) and severity of organ failure (qSOFA). The authors focused on easily identifiable parameters which are available in virtually any surgical hospital. Threshold value (lethal outcome probability over 50%) is 8 scores in this system. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 93.3, 99.7 and 98.9%, respectively according to ROC-curve that exceeds those parameters of MPI and APACHE II.

About the Bernoulli’s Probability Formula Application for Analyzing the Results of the Unified State Examination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. M. Nuriyeva

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper looks at implementing the probability theory and mathematical statistics while analyzing the outcomes of the unified state examination (USE. The research is aimed at investigating the impact of closed questions that make the greater part of USE, on test results. The methodology is based on so called Bernoulli’s trial. The research findings demonstrate the higher probability of incidental right answers to the closed questions compared with the open ones. The author makes a conclusion that the considerable number of closed questions in the test can misrepresent the final result which tends to improve. The proposed method of statistic analysis can provide the explanation for the USE results anomalies, evaluate the quality of examination materials and scoring system, and give the quantified assessment of social implications. 

Heart valve surgery: EuroSCORE vs. EuroSCORE II vs. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Sharoz Rabbani

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background This is a validation study comparing the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II with the previous additive (AES and logistic EuroSCORE (LES and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ (STS risk prediction algorithm, for patients undergoing valve replacement with or without bypass in Pakistan. Patients and Methods Clinical data of 576 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery between 2006 and 2013 were retrospectively collected and individual expected risks of death were calculated by all four risk prediction algorithms. Performance of these risk algorithms was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results There were 28 deaths (4.8% among 576 patients, which was lower than the predicted mortality of 5.16%, 6.96% and 4.94% by AES, LES and EuroSCORE II but was higher than 2.13% predicted by STS scoring system. For single and double valve replacement procedures, EuroSCORE II was the best predictor of mortality with highest Hosmer and Lemmeshow test (H-L p value (0.346 to 0.689 and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (0.637 to 0.898. For valve plus concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG patients actual mortality was 1.88%. STS calculator came out to be the best predictor of mortality for this subgroup with H-L p value (0.480 to 0.884 and ROC (0.657 to 0.775. Conclusions For Pakistani population EuroSCORE II is an accurate predictor for individual operative risk in patients undergoing isolated valve surgery, whereas STS performs better in the valve plus CABG group.

Invariant probabilities of transition functions

CERN Document Server

Zaharopol, Radu

2014-01-01

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

The "Buruli Score": Development of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Diagnosis of Mycobacterium ulcerans Infection in Individuals with Ulcerative Skin Lesions, Akonolinga, Cameroon.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yolanda K Mueller

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Access to laboratory diagnosis can be a challenge for individuals suspected of Buruli Ulcer (BU. Our objective was to develop a clinical score to assist clinicians working in resource-limited settings for BU diagnosis.Between 2011 and 2013, individuals presenting at Akonolinga District Hospital, Cameroon, were enrolled consecutively. Clinical data were collected prospectively. Based on a latent class model using laboratory test results (ZN, PCR, culture, patients were categorized into high, or low BU likelihood. Variables associated with a high BU likelihood in a multivariate logistic model were included in the Buruli score. Score cut-offs were chosen based on calculated predictive values. Of 325 patients with an ulcerative lesion, 51 (15.7% had a high BU likelihood. The variables identified for the Buruli score were: characteristic smell (+3 points, yellow color (+2, female gender (+2, undermining (+1, green color (+1, lesion hyposensitivity (+1, pain at rest (-1, size >5cm (-1, locoregional adenopathy (-2, age above 20 up to 40 years (-3, or above 40 (-5. This score had AUC of 0.86 (95%CI 0.82-0.89, indicating good discrimination between infected and non-infected individuals. The cut-off to reasonably exclude BU was set at scores <0 (NPV 96.5%; 95%CI 93.0-98.6. The treatment threshold was set at a cut-off ≥4 (PPV 69.0%; 95%CI 49.2-84.7. Patients with intermediate BU probability needed to be tested by PCR.We developed a decisional algorithm based on a clinical score assessing BU probability. The Buruli score still requires further validation before it can be recommended for wide use.

Zero Calcium Score as a Filter for Further Testing in Patients Admitted to the Coronary Care Unit with Chest Pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Luis Cláudio Lemos; Esteves, Fábio P; Carvalhal, Manuela; Souza, Thiago Menezes Barbosa de; Sá, Nicole de; Correia, Vitor Calixto de Almeida; Alexandre, Felipe Kalil Beirão; Lopes, Fernanda; Ferreira, Felipe; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia

2017-06-12

The accuracy of zero coronary calcium score as a filter in patients with chest pain has been demonstrated at the emergency room and outpatient clinics, populations with low prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD). To test the gatekeeping role of zero calcium score in patients with chest pain admitted to the coronary care unit (CCU), where the pretest probability of CAD is higher than that of other populations. Patients underwent computed tomography for calcium scoring, and obstructive CAD was defined by a minimum 70% stenosis on invasive angiography. In 146 patients studied, the prevalence of CAD was 41%. A zero calcium score was present in 35% of the patients. The sensitivity and specificity of zero calcium score yielded a negative likelihood ratio of 0.16. After logistic regression adjustment for pretest probability, zero calcium score was independently associated with lower odds of CAD (OR = 0.12, 95%CI = 0.04-0.36), increasing the area under the ROC curve of the clinical model from 0.76 to 0.82 (p = 0.006). Zero calcium score provided a net reclassification improvement of 0.20 (p = 0.0018) over the clinical model when using a pretest probability threshold of 10% for discharging without further testing. In patients with pretest probability zero calcium score had a negative predictive value of 95% (95%CI = 83%-99%), with a number needed to test of 2.1 for obtaining one additional discharge. Zero calcium score substantially reduces the pretest probability of obstructive CAD in patients admitted to the CCU with acute chest pain. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2017; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0). A acurácia do escore de cálcio coronário zero como um filtro nos pacientes com dor torácica aguda tem sido demonstrada na sala de emergência e nos ambulatórios, populações com baixa prevalência de doença arterial coronariana (DAC). Testar o papel do escore de cálcio zero como filtro nos pacientes com dor torácica admitidos numa unidade coronariana intensiva (UCI), na

Hereditary spastic paraplegia: LOD-score considerations for confirmation of linkage in a heterogeneous trait

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dube, M.P.; Kibar, Z.; Rouleau, G.A. [McGill Univ., Quebec (Canada)] [and others

1997-03-01

Hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) is a degenerative disorder of the motor system, defined by progressive weakness and spasticity of the lower limbs. HSP may be inherited as an autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive, or an X-linked trait. AD HSP is genetically heterogeneous, and three loci have been identified so far: SPG3 maps to chromosome 14q, SPG4 to 2p, and SPG4a to 15q. We have undertaken linkage analysis with 21 uncomplicated AD families to the three AD HSP loci. We report significant linkage for three of our families to the SPG4 locus and exclude several families by multipoint linkage. We used linkage information from several different research teams to evaluate the statistical probability of linkage to the SPG4 locus for uncomplicated AD HSP families and established the critical LOD-score value necessary for confirmation of linkage to the SPG4 locus from Bayesian statistics. In addition, we calculated the empirical P-values for the LOD scores obtained with all families with computer simulation methods. Power to detect significant linkage, as well as type I error probabilities, were evaluated. This combined analytical approach permitted conclusive linkage analyses on small to medium-size families, under the restrictions of genetic heterogeneity. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Hereditary spastic paraplegia: LOD-score considerations for confirmation of linkage in a heterogeneous trait.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubé, M P; Mlodzienski, M A; Kibar, Z; Farlow, M R; Ebers, G; Harper, P; Kolodny, E H; Rouleau, G A; Figlewicz, D A

1997-03-01

Hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) is a degenerative disorder of the motor system, defined by progressive weakness and spasticity of the lower limbs. HSP may be inherited as an autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive, or an X-linked trait. AD HSP is genetically heterogeneous, and three loci have been identified so far: SPG3 maps to chromosome 14q, SPG4 to 2p, and SPG4a to 15q. We have undertaken linkage analysis with 21 uncomplicated AD families to the three AD HSP loci. We report significant linkage for three of our families to the SPG4 locus and exclude several families by multipoint linkage. We used linkage information from several different research teams to evaluate the statistical probability of linkage to the SPG4 locus for uncomplicated AD HSP families and established the critical LOD-score value necessary for confirmation of linkage to the SPG4 locus from Bayesian statistics. In addition, we calculated the empirical P-values for the LOD scores obtained with all families with computer simulation methods. Power to detect significant linkage, as well as type I error probabilities, were evaluated. This combined analytical approach permitted conclusive linkage analyses on small to medium-size families, under the restrictions of genetic heterogeneity.

Grammaticality, Acceptability, and Probability: A Probabilistic View of Linguistic Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Jey Han; Clark, Alexander; Lappin, Shalom

2017-07-01

The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability. The acceptability of a sentence is not the same as the likelihood of its occurrence, which is, in part, determined by factors like sentence length and lexical frequency. In this paper, we present the results of a set of large-scale experiments using crowd-sourced acceptability judgments that demonstrate gradience to be a pervasive feature in acceptability judgments. We then show how one can predict acceptability judgments on the basis of probability by augmenting probabilistic language models with an acceptability measure. This is a function that normalizes probability values to eliminate the confounding factors of length and lexical frequency. We describe a sequence of modeling experiments with unsupervised language models drawn from state-of-the-art machine learning methods in natural language processing. Several of these models achieve very encouraging levels of accuracy in the acceptability prediction task, as measured by the correlation between the acceptability measure scores and mean human acceptability values. We consider the relevance of these results to the debate on the nature of grammatical competence, and we argue that they support the view that linguistic knowledge can be intrinsically probabilistic. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

The concept of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

1989-01-01

The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Application of the ATLAS score for evaluating the severity of Clostridium difficile infection in teaching hospitals in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-García, Raúl; Garza-González, Elvira; Miller, Mark; Arteaga-Muller, Giovanna; Galván-de los Santos, Alejandra María; Camacho-Ortiz, Adrián

2015-01-01

For clinicians, a practical bedside tool for severity assessment and prognosis of patients with Clostridium difficile infection is a highly desirable unmet medical need. Two general teaching hospitals in northeast Mexico. Adult patients with C. difficile infection. Prospective observational study. Patients included had a median of 48 years of age, 54% of male gender and an average of 24.3 days length of hospital stay. Third generation cephalosporins were the antibiotics most commonly used prior to C. difficile infection diagnosis. Patients diagnosed with C. difficile infection had a median ATLAS score of 4 and 56.7% of the subjects had a score between 4 and 7 points. Patients with a score of 8 through 10 points had 100% mortality. The ATLAS score is a potentially useful tool for the routine evaluation of patients at the time of C. difficile infection diagnosis. At 30 days post-diagnosis, patients with a score of ≤3 points had 100% survival while all of those with scores ≥8 died. Patients with scores between 4 and 7 points had a greater probability of colectomy with an overall cure rate of 70.1%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

OVERVIEW OF THE SDSS-IV MaNGA SURVEY: MAPPING NEARBY GALAXIES AT APACHE POINT OBSERVATORY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bundy, Kevin [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU, WPI), Todai Institutes for Advanced Study, the University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8583 (Japan); Bershady, Matthew A.; Wake, David A.; Tremonti, Christy; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 475 North Charter Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Law, David R.; Cherinka, Brian [Dunlap Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3H4 (Canada); Yan, Renbin; Sánchez-Gallego, José R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kentucky, 505 Rose Street, Lexington, KY 40506-0055 (United States); Drory, Niv [McDonald Observatory, Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, Austin, TX 78712-0259 (United States); MacDonald, Nicholas [Department of Astronomy, Box 351580, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Weijmans, Anne-Marie [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Thomas, Daniel; Masters, Karen; Coccato, Lodovico [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Aragón-Salamanca, Alfonso [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Avila-Reese, Vladimir [Instituto de Astronomia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, A.P. 70-264, 04510 Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Badenes, Carles [Department of Physics and Astronomy and Pittsburgh Particle Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology Center (PITT PACC), University of Pittsburgh, 3941 OHara St, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (United States); Falcón-Barroso, Jésus [Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Belfiore, Francesco [Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, 19 J. J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom); and others

2015-01-01

We present an overview of a new integral field spectroscopic survey called MaNGA (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory), one of three core programs in the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) that began on 2014 July 1. MaNGA will investigate the internal kinematic structure and composition of gas and stars in an unprecedented sample of 10,000 nearby galaxies. We summarize essential characteristics of the instrument and survey design in the context of MaNGA's key science goals and present prototype observations to demonstrate MaNGA's scientific potential. MaNGA employs dithered observations with 17 fiber-bundle integral field units that vary in diameter from 12'' (19 fibers) to 32'' (127 fibers). Two dual-channel spectrographs provide simultaneous wavelength coverage over 3600-10300 Å at R ∼ 2000. With a typical integration time of 3 hr, MaNGA reaches a target r-band signal-to-noise ratio of 4-8 (Å{sup –1} per 2'' fiber) at 23 AB mag arcsec{sup –2}, which is typical for the outskirts of MaNGA galaxies. Targets are selected with M {sub *} ≳ 10{sup 9} M {sub ☉} using SDSS-I redshifts and i-band luminosity to achieve uniform radial coverage in terms of the effective radius, an approximately flat distribution in stellar mass, and a sample spanning a wide range of environments. Analysis of our prototype observations demonstrates MaNGA's ability to probe gas ionization, shed light on recent star formation and quenching, enable dynamical modeling, decompose constituent components, and map the composition of stellar populations. MaNGA's spatially resolved spectra will enable an unprecedented study of the astrophysics of nearby galaxies in the coming 6 yr.

OVERVIEW OF THE SDSS-IV MaNGA SURVEY: MAPPING NEARBY GALAXIES AT APACHE POINT OBSERVATORY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bundy, Kevin; Bershady, Matthew A.; Wake, David A.; Tremonti, Christy; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar M.; Law, David R.; Cherinka, Brian; Yan, Renbin; Sánchez-Gallego, José R.; Drory, Niv; MacDonald, Nicholas; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Thomas, Daniel; Masters, Karen; Coccato, Lodovico; Aragón-Salamanca, Alfonso; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Badenes, Carles; Falcón-Barroso, Jésus; Belfiore, Francesco

2015-01-01

We present an overview of a new integral field spectroscopic survey called MaNGA (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory), one of three core programs in the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) that began on 2014 July 1. MaNGA will investigate the internal kinematic structure and composition of gas and stars in an unprecedented sample of 10,000 nearby galaxies. We summarize essential characteristics of the instrument and survey design in the context of MaNGA's key science goals and present prototype observations to demonstrate MaNGA's scientific potential. MaNGA employs dithered observations with 17 fiber-bundle integral field units that vary in diameter from 12'' (19 fibers) to 32'' (127 fibers). Two dual-channel spectrographs provide simultaneous wavelength coverage over 3600-10300 Å at R ∼ 2000. With a typical integration time of 3 hr, MaNGA reaches a target r-band signal-to-noise ratio of 4-8 (Å –1 per 2'' fiber) at 23 AB mag arcsec –2 , which is typical for the outskirts of MaNGA galaxies. Targets are selected with M * ≳ 10 9 M ☉ using SDSS-I redshifts and i-band luminosity to achieve uniform radial coverage in terms of the effective radius, an approximately flat distribution in stellar mass, and a sample spanning a wide range of environments. Analysis of our prototype observations demonstrates MaNGA's ability to probe gas ionization, shed light on recent star formation and quenching, enable dynamical modeling, decompose constituent components, and map the composition of stellar populations. MaNGA's spatially resolved spectra will enable an unprecedented study of the astrophysics of nearby galaxies in the coming 6 yr

Probability via expectation

CERN Document Server

Whittle, Peter

1992-01-01

This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

2001-01-01

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

Applicability of the heart failure Readmission Risk score: A first European study.

Science.gov (United States)

Formiga, Francesc; Masip, Joan; Chivite, David; Corbella, Xavier

2017-06-01

The Readmission Risk score (RR score) has been considered useful to predict Medicare/Medicaid patients' likelihood of 30-day hospital readmission for heart failure (HF). To our knowledge, the accuracy of this prediction model has not been independently validated in other clinical circumstances in Europe. From July 2013 to December 2014, all patients who survived to a first admission due to decompensated HF at our tertiary care teaching hospital were retrospectively included in the study. The RR score was calculated in all patients to predict future 30 and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmissions. A total of 679 patients were included, of them, 52 patients (7.6%) were readmitted by any cause within 30days after discharge, and 98 (14.4%) within 90days. When compared, the average RR scores for patients readmitted was significantly higher to those who did not, either within 30days (22.7 vs. 20.1) or 90days (22.7 vs. 20.1) of discharge. The 30-day C-statistic was 0.649 (95% CI 0.574-0.723) and the 90-day 0.621 (95% CI 0.560-0.681). There was a significant increase in readmission percentages at 30 and 90days with respect to increasing quartiles of RR score. Our results only support a modest applicability of this predictive model in patients at 30 and 90days, after a first hospitalization for decompensated HF. Probably, the fact that our readmission rate in patients firstly admitted due to HF was very low, generated a bias in the study, discouraging the use of this score in the de novo HF patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Poisson Processes in Free Probability

OpenAIRE

An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

2015-01-01

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

Solving probability reasoning based on DNA strand displacement and probability modules.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Xiaobiao; Wang, Xiaojun; Zhou, Changjun

2017-12-01

In computation biology, DNA strand displacement technology is used to simulate the computation process and has shown strong computing ability. Most researchers use it to solve logic problems, but it is only rarely used in probabilistic reasoning. To process probabilistic reasoning, a conditional probability derivation model and total probability model based on DNA strand displacement were established in this paper. The models were assessed through the game "read your mind." It has been shown to enable the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2016-01-01

Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.

A Comparison of Two Scoring Methods for an Automated Speech Scoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Xi, Xiaoming; Higgins, Derrick; Zechner, Klaus; Williamson, David

2012-01-01

This paper compares two alternative scoring methods--multiple regression and classification trees--for an automated speech scoring system used in a practice environment. The two methods were evaluated on two criteria: construct representation and empirical performance in predicting human scores. The empirical performance of the two scoring models…

Truth, possibility and probability new logical foundations of probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Chuaqui, R

1991-01-01

Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.

NCACO-score: An effective main-chain dependent scoring function for structure modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dong Xiaoxi

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Development of effective scoring functions is a critical component to the success of protein structure modeling. Previously, many efforts have been dedicated to the development of scoring functions. Despite these efforts, development of an effective scoring function that can achieve both good accuracy and fast speed still presents a grand challenge. Results Based on a coarse-grained representation of a protein structure by using only four main-chain atoms: N, Cα, C and O, we develop a knowledge-based scoring function, called NCACO-score, that integrates different structural information to rapidly model protein structure from sequence. In testing on the Decoys'R'Us sets, we found that NCACO-score can effectively recognize native conformers from their decoys. Furthermore, we demonstrate that NCACO-score can effectively guide fragment assembly for protein structure prediction, which has achieved a good performance in building the structure models for hard targets from CASP8 in terms of both accuracy and speed. Conclusions Although NCACO-score is developed based on a coarse-grained model, it is able to discriminate native conformers from decoy conformers with high accuracy. NCACO is a very effective scoring function for structure modeling.

Comparison of four different collateral scores in acute ischemic stroke by CT angiography.

Science.gov (United States)

Seker, Fatih; Potreck, Arne; Möhlenbruch, Markus; Bendszus, Martin; Pham, Mirko

2016-11-01

Multiple scores have been described for the assessment of collateralization in acute ischemic stroke. Currently, there is no gold standard for collateral assessment by CT angiography (CTA). This study compared four frequently used collateral scores with regard to their correlation with early infarct core and mismatch ratio. 30 consecutive patients with acute occlusion of the M1 segment or terminal carotid artery were reviewed retrospectively. Collaterals were assessed using dynamic and also single-phase CTA according to grading systems by the American Society of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology/Society of Interventional Radiology (ASITN/SIR), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) (on collaterals), Christoforidis et al and Miteff et al. The Christoforidis and ASITN/SIR scores, which were initially designed for conventional angiography, were adapted to be applicable to CTA. The scores were compared with respect to early infarct core and mismatch ratio in perfusion CT estimated by RAPID software using Spearman correlation. ASITN/SIR and ASPECTS collateral scores showed good correlation with early infarct core (rho=-0.696, p<0.001 and rho=-0.677, p<0.001) and mismatch ratio (rho=0.609, p<0.001 and rho=0.581, p<0.001). In contrast, the Christoforidis and Miteff scores correlated less well with infarct core (rho=0.245, p=0.191 and rho=-0.272, p=0.145, respectively) and mismatch ratio (rho=-0.329, p=0.075 and rho=0.279, p=0.135, respectively). ASPECTS and ASITN/SIR showed excellent cross-correlation (rho=0.901, p<0.001). Compared with the Christoforidis and Miteff scores, the modified ASITN/SIR and ASPECTS collateral scores showed consistently higher correlation with the extent of early infarct core and mismatch volume. This is probably because these scores evaluate the extent and delay of vascular enhancement in the affected territory rather than the backflow of contrast medium to the occlusion. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For

Scoring system development for prediction of extravesical bladder cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prelević Rade

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Staging of bladder cancer is crucial for optimal management of the disease. However, clinical staging is not perfectly accurate. The aim of this study was to derive a simple scoring system in prediction of pathological advanced muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC. Methods. Logistic regression and bootstrap methods were used to create an integer score for estimating the risk in prediction of pathological advanced MIBC using precystectomy clinicopathological data: demographic, initial transurethral resection (TUR [grade, stage, multiplicity of tumors, lymphovascular invasion (LVI], hydronephrosis, abdominal and pelvic CT radiography (size of the tumor, tumor base width, and pathological stage after radical cystectomy (RC. Advanced MIBC in surgical specimen was defined as pT3-4 tumor. Receiving operating characteristic (ROC curve quantified the area under curve (AUC as predictive accuracy. Clinical usefulness was assessed by using decision curve analysis. Results. This single-center retrospective study included 233 adult patients with BC undergoing RC at the Military Medical Academy, Belgrade. Organ confined disease was observed in 101 (43.3% patients, and 132 (56.7% had advanced MIBC. In multivariable analysis, 3 risk factors most strongly associated with advanced MIBC: grade of initial TUR [odds ratio (OR = 4.7], LVI (OR = 2, and hydronephrosis (OR = 3.9. The resultant total possible score ranged from 0 to 15, with the cut-off value of > 8 points, the AUC was 0.795, showing good discriminatory ability. The model showed excellent calibration. Decision curve analysis showed a net benefit across all threshold probabilities and clinical usefulness of the model. Conclusion. We developed a unique scoring system which could assist in predicting advanced MIBC in patients before RC. The scoring system showed good performance characteristics and introducing of such a tool into daily clinical decision-making may lead to more appropriate

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2006-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

Probability and stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Rotar, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

Transitional Probabilities Are Prioritized over Stimulus/Pattern Probabilities in Auditory Deviance Detection: Memory Basis for Predictive Sound Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mittag, Maria; Takegata, Rika; Winkler, István

2016-09-14

Representations encoding the probabilities of auditory events do not directly support predictive processing. In contrast, information about the probability with which a given sound follows another (transitional probability) allows predictions of upcoming sounds. We tested whether behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection (the latter indexed by the mismatch negativity event-related potential) relies on probabilities of sound patterns or on transitional probabilities. We presented healthy adult volunteers with three types of rare tone-triplets among frequent standard triplets of high-low-high (H-L-H) or L-H-L pitch structure: proximity deviant (H-H-H/L-L-L), reversal deviant (L-H-L/H-L-H), and first-tone deviant (L-L-H/H-H-L). If deviance detection was based on pattern probability, reversal and first-tone deviants should be detected with similar latency because both differ from the standard at the first pattern position. If deviance detection was based on transitional probabilities, then reversal deviants should be the most difficult to detect because, unlike the other two deviants, they contain no low-probability pitch transitions. The data clearly showed that both behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection uses transitional probabilities. Thus, the memory traces underlying cortical deviance detection may provide a link between stimulus probability-based change/novelty detectors operating at lower levels of the auditory system and higher auditory cognitive functions that involve predictive processing. Our research presents the first definite evidence for the auditory system prioritizing transitional probabilities over probabilities of individual sensory events. Forming representations for transitional probabilities paves the way for predictions of upcoming sounds. Several recent theories suggest that predictive processing provides the general basis of human perception, including important auditory functions, such as auditory scene analysis. Our

A Case Study About Why It Can Be Difficult To Test Whether Propensity Score Analysis Works in Field Experiments

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Thomas D. Cook

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Peikes, Moreno and Orzol (2008 sensibly caution researchers that propensity score analysis may not lead to valid causal inference in field applications. But at the same time, they made the far stronger claim to have performed an ideal test of whether propensity score matching in quasi-experimental data is capable of approximating the results of a randomized experiment in their dataset, and that this ideal test showed that such matching could not do so. In this article we show that their study does not support that conclusion because it failed to meet a number of basic criteria for an ideal test. By implication, many other purported tests of the effectiveness of propensity score analysis probably also fail to meet these criteria, and are therefore questionable contributions to the literature on the effects of propensity score analysis.

Probability tales

CERN Document Server

Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

2011-01-01

This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

A Tale of Two Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

2013-01-01

Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

Phosphate is a potential biomarker of disease severity and predicts adverse outcomes in acute kidney injury patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

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Su-Young Jung

Full Text Available Hyperphosphatemia is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease, and is common in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI; however, its clinical implication in these patients is unknown. We conducted an observational study in 1144 patients (mean age, 63.2 years; male, 705 [61.6%] with AKI who received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT between January 2009 and September 2016. Phosphate levels were measured before (0 h and 24 h after CRRT initiation. We assessed disease severity using various clinical parameters. Phosphate at 0 h positively correlated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II; P < 0.001 and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA; P < 0.001 scores, and inversely with mean arterial pressure (MAP; P = 0.02 and urine output (UO; P = 0.01. In a fully adjusted linear regression analysis for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI, MAP, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, higher 0 h phosphate level was significantly associated with high APACHE II (P < 0.001 and SOFA (P = 0.04 scores, suggesting that phosphate represents disease severity. A multivariable Cox model also showed that hyperphosphatemia was significantly associated with increased 28-day (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P = 0.001 and 90-day (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P = 0.001 mortality. Furthermore, patients with increased phosphate level during 24 h were at higher risk of death than those with stable or decreased phosphate levels. Finally, c-statistics significantly increased when phosphate was added to a model that included age, sex, CCI, body mass index, eGFR, MAP, hemoglobin, serum albumin, C-reactive protein, and APACHE II score. This study shows that phosphate is a potential biomarker that can reflect disease severity and predict mortality in critically ill patients receiving CRRT.

The Apache Longbow-Hellfire Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground: Introduction and Problem Formulation for a Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J.; Jones, Daniel Steven; Suter, Glenn

2008-01-01

An ecological risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF). The focus of the assessment was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. The problem formulation for the assessment included conceptual models for three component activities of the test, helicopter overflight, missile firing, and tracked vehicle movement, and two ecological endpoint entities, woody desert wash communities and desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) populations. An activity-specific risk assessment framework was available to provide guidance for assessing risks associated with aircraft overflights. Key environmental features of the study area include barren desert pavement and tree-lined desert washes. The primary stressors associated with helicopter overflights were sound and the view of the aircraft. The primary stressor associated with Hellfire missile firing was sound. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased ponding, infiltration and/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. A plan for estimating integrated risks from the three military activities was included in the problem formulation

Propensity scores as a basis for equating groups: basic principles and application in clinical treatment outcome research.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Stephen G; Cham, Heining; Thoemmes, Felix; Renneberg, Babette; Schulze, Julian; Weiler, Matthias

2014-10-01

A propensity score is the probability that a participant is assigned to the treatment group based on a set of baseline covariates. Propensity scores provide an excellent basis for equating treatment groups on a large set of covariates when randomization is not possible. This article provides a nontechnical introduction to propensity scores for clinical researchers. If all important covariates are measured, then methods that equate on propensity scores can achieve balance on a large set of covariates that mimics that achieved by a randomized experiment. We present an illustration of the steps in the construction and checking of propensity scores in a study of the effectiveness of a health coach versus treatment as usual on the well-being of seriously ill individuals. We then consider alternative methods of equating groups on propensity scores and estimating treatment effects including matching, stratification, weighting, and analysis of covariance. We illustrate a sensitivity analysis that can probe for the potential effects of omitted covariates on the estimate of the causal effect. Finally, we briefly consider several practical and theoretical issues in the use of propensity scores in applied settings. Propensity score methods have advantages over alternative approaches to equating groups particularly when the treatment and control groups do not fully overlap, and there are nonlinear relationships between covariates and the outcome. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

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Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

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Frič Roman

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

2011-01-01

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Normal myocardial perfusion scan portends a benign prognosis independent from the pretest probability of coronary artery disease. Sub-analysis of the J-ACCESS study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imamura, Yosihiro; Fukuyama, Takaya; Nishimura, Sigeyuki; Nishimura, Tsunehiko

2009-01-01

We assessed the usefulness of gated stress/rest 99mTc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) to predict ischemic cardiac events in Japanese patients with various estimated pretest probabilities of coronary artery disease (CAD). Of the 4031 consecutively registered patients for a J-ACCESS (Japanese Assessment of Cardiac Events and Survival Study by Quantitative Gated SPECT) study, 1904 patients without prior cardiac events were selected. Gated stress/rest myocardial perfusion SPECT was performed and segmental perfusion scores and quantitative gated SPECT results were derived. The pretest probability for having CAD was estimated using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/American College of Physicians- American Society of Internal Medicine guideline data for the management of patients with chronic stable angina, which includes age, gender, and type of chest discomfort. The patients were followed up for three years. During the three-year follow-up period, 96 developed ischemic cardiac events: 17 cardiac deaths, 8 nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 71 clinically driven revascularization. The summed stress score (SSS) was the most powerful independent predictor of all ischemic cardiac events (hazard ratio 1.077, confidence interval (CI) 1.045-1.110). Abnormal SSS (>3) was associated with a significantly higher cardiac event rate in patients with an intermediate to high pretest probability of CAD. Normal SSS (≤3) was associated with a low event rate in patients with any pretest probability of CAD. Myocardial perfusion SPECT is useful for further risk-stratification of patients with suspected CAD. The abnormal scan result (SSS>3) is discriminative for subsequent cardiac events only in the groups with an intermediate to high pretest probability of CAD. The salient result is that normal scan results portend a benign prognosis independent from the pretest probability of CAD. (author)

A-MUPS score to differentiate patients with somatic symptom disorder from those with medical disease for complaints of non-acute pain

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Suzuki S

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Shingo Suzuki, Yoshiyuki Ohira, Kazutaka Noda, Masatomi Ikusaka Department of General Medicine, Chiba University Hospital, Chiba, Japan Purpose: To develop a clinical score to discriminate patients with somatic symptom disorder (SSD from those with medical disease (MD for complaints of non-acute pain.Methods: We retrospectively examined the clinical records of consecutive patients with pain for a duration of ≥1 month in our department from April 2003 to March 2015. We divided the subjects according to the diagnoses of definite SSD (as diagnosed and tracked by psychiatrists in our hospital, probable SSD (without evaluation by psychiatrists in our hospital, matched MD (randomly matched two patients by age, sex, and pain location for each definite SSD patient, unmatched MD, other mental disease, or functional somatic syndrome (FSS. We investigated eight clinical factors for definite SSD and matched MD, and developed a diagnostic score to ­identify SSD. We subsequently validated the model with cases of probable SSD and unmatched MD.Results: The number of patients with definite SSD, probable SSD, matched MD, unmatched MD, other mental disease, and FSS was 104 (3.5%, 214 (7.3%, 197 (6.7%, 742 (25%, 708 (24%, and 978 (33%, respectively. In a conditional logistic regression analysis, the following five factors were included as independent predictors of SSD: Analgesics ineffective, Mental disorder history, Unclear provocative/palliative factors, Persistence without cessation, and Stress feelings/episodes (A-MUPS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of the model was 0.900 (95% CI: 0.864–0.937, p<0.001, and the McFadden’s pseudo-R-squared was 0.709. For internal validation, the AUC between probable SSD and unmatched MD was 0.930 (95% CI: 0.910–0.950, p<0.001. The prevalence and the likelihood ratio of SSD increased as the score increased.Conclusion: The A-MUPS score was useful for discriminating patients with SSD from

Probable Association of Tachyarrhythmia With Nebulized Albuterol in a Child With Previously Subclinical Wolff Parkinson White Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Kroesen, Michiel; Maseland, Machiel; Smal, Jaime; Reimer, Annet; van Setten, Petra

2012-01-01

We present the case of a 2-year-old asthmatic boy with atrioventricular (AV)-reentry tachycardia following albuterol inhalation, who was later diagnosed with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. The Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability scale score for this adverse event was 7, indicating that the association between his AV-reentry tachycardia and inhalation of albuterol is probable. To our knowledge, this is the first case report that shows the potential arrhythmogenic effects of albuterol in a child with WPW syndrome. We urge clinicians to be aware of this potentially life-threatening adverse effect and to closely monitor these patients when they need beta-adrenergic drugs in case of emergency. Furthermore, this report highlights the dilemma regarding the safe treatment of pediatric patients with both asthma and WPW syndrome. PMID:23118663

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Rogers

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict; b high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c buyers classified as compulsive; d individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

Is probability of frequency too narrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.

1993-01-01

Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Soetomo score: score model in early identification of acute haemorrhagic stroke

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Moh Hasan Machfoed

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Aim of the study: On financial or facility constraints of brain imaging, score model is used to predict the occurrence of acute haemorrhagic stroke. Accordingly, this study attempts to develop a new score model, called Soetomo score. Material and methods: The researchers performed a cross-sectional study of 176 acute stroke patients with onset of ≤24 hours who visited emergency unit of Dr. Soetomo Hospital from July 14th to December 14th, 2014. The diagnosis of haemorrhagic stroke was confirmed by head computed tomography scan. There were seven predictors of haemorrhagic stroke which were analysed by using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Furthermore, a multiple discriminant analysis resulted in an equation of Soetomo score model. The receiver operating characteristic procedure resulted in the values of area under curve and intersection point identifying haemorrhagic stroke. Afterward, the diagnostic test value was determined. Results: The equation of Soetomo score model was (3 × loss of consciousness + (3.5 × headache + (4 × vomiting − 4.5. Area under curve value of this score was 88.5% (95% confidence interval = 83.3–93.7%. In the Soetomo score model value of ≥−0.75, the score reached the sensitivity of 82.9%, specificity of 83%, positive predictive value of 78.8%, negative predictive value of 86.5%, positive likelihood ratio of 4.88, negative likelihood ratio of 0.21, false negative of 17.1%, false positive of 17%, and accuracy of 83%. Conclusions: The Soetomo score model value of ≥−0.75 can identify acute haemorrhagic stroke properly on the financial or facility constrains of brain imaging.

Free probability and random matrices

CERN Document Server

Mingo, James A

2017-01-01

This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

Probability with applications and R

CERN Document Server

Dobrow, Robert P

2013-01-01

An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

A philosophical essay on probabilities

CERN Document Server

Laplace, Marquis de

1996-01-01

A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application