WorldWideScience

Sample records for proactive risk analysis

  1. Proactive safety management in health care : towards a broader view of risk analysis, error recovery, and safety culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Habraken, M.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    Medical errors occur frequently. The harm and additional costs associated with those errors ask for effective safety management. According to the objective of minimal patient harm, safety management in health care should be proactive; that is, risks should be anticipated and reduced before patients

  2. Application of a Proactive Risk Analysis to Emergency Department Sickle Cell Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria L. Thornton

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Patients with sickle cell disease (SCD often seek care in emergency departments (EDs for severe pain. However, there is evidence that they experience inaccurate assessment, suboptimal care, and inadequate follow-up referrals. The aim of this project was to 1 explore the feasibility of applying a failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA in two EDs examining four processes of care (triage, analgesic management, high risk/high users, and referrals made for patients with SCD, and 2 report the failures of these care processes in each ED. Methods: A FMECA was conducted of ED SCD patient care at two hospitals. A multidisciplinary group examined each step of four processes. Providers identified failures in each step, and then characterized the frequency, impact, and safeguards, resulting in risk categorization. Results: Many “high risk” failures existed in both institutions, including a lack of recognition of high-risk or high-user patients and a lack of emphasis on psychosocial referrals. Specific to SCD analgesic management, one setting inconsistently used existing analgesic policies, while the other setting did not have such policies. Conclusion: FMECA facilitated the identification of failures of ED SCD care and has guided quality improvement activities. Interventions can focus on improvements in these specific areas targeting improvements in the delivery and organization of ED SCD care. Improvements should correspond with the forthcoming National Heart, Lung and Blood-sponsored guidelines for treatment of patients with sickle cell disease. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(4:446–458.

  3. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Content Analysis for Proactive Protective Intelligence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2010-12-15

    The aim of this paper is to outline a plan for developing and validating a Proactive Protective Intelligence approach that prevents targeted violence through the analysis and assessment of threats overtly or covertly expressed in abnormal communications to USSS protectees.

  5. Proactive supply chain risk management approach: The case of Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Anđelković Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Supply chain risk management has become imperative. Therefore, needs for proactive supply chain risk management continuously is growing. Proactive supply chain risk management is not a great problem in developed countries. The problem is present in transition countries and underdeveloped countries. In those countries has not been built awareness about the importance of networking through supply chains and risk management within the supply chain. One of them...

  6. Risk management plans as a tool for proactive pharmacovigilance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeer, N S; Duijnhoven, R G; Straus, S M J M

    2014-01-01

    Risk Management Plans (RMPs) have become a cornerstone in the pharmacovigilance of new drugs in Europe. The RMP was introduced in 2005 to support a proactive approach in gaining knowledge on safety concerns through early planning of pharmacovigilance activities. However, the rate at which...... of uncertainties, suggests that opportunities for optimization exist while ensuring feasible and risk-proportionate pharmacovigilance planning....

  7. Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

    Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

  8. Cleared risks? Proactive strategies as service in Cloud Computing contexts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Moro-Cabero

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of Cloud Computing services at organizations is an undeniable reality nowadays. Record managers must then adopt a proactive and compromised position, giving advice to users. However, as a consequence of lack of knowledge in the function and regulation of the field, the implementation of those services faces no little confrontation. This descriptive essay, supported by a relevant number of heterogeneous resources, systematizes the menaces of managing and storing information with these services. At the same time, the study establishes a set of action-strategies for both reaching and hiring agreements. The objective of the paper is, therefore, to make the professional aware of the potential of these services as assessing and controlling tools, as well as ensuring the digital continuity and the record resources preservation in the Cloud.

  9. Interrelations between Principals' Risk of Burnout Profiles and Proactive Self-Regulation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikkanen, Lotta; Pyhältö, Kirsi; Pietarinen, Janne; Soini, Tiina

    2017-01-01

    School leadership is a demanding job. Those involved in school leadership have shown to experience high levels of work stress that may, if prolonged, result in burnout. The purpose of this study was to examine school leaders' risks of burnout in terms of work stress and burnout symptoms, and their relationship with proactive self-regulation…

  10. Dual Trajectories of Reactive and Proactive Aggression from Mid-childhood to Early Adolescence: Relations to Sensation Seeking, Risk Taking, and Moral Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Lixian; Colasante, Tyler; Malti, Tina; Ribeaud, Denis; Eisner, Manuel P

    2016-05-01

    We examined the roles of sensation seeking, risk taking, and moral reasoning in the development of reactive and proactive aggression. Data were drawn from a multiethnic, longitudinal study of children from Switzerland (N = 1571; 52 % male; assessed annually over 6 years; 7-years-old at Time 1). At all 6 time points, teachers reported children's reactive and proactive aggression via questionnaire. Children's sensation seeking (at Time 1) and risk taking (at Time 2) were assessed with two interactive computer tasks and their moral reasoning was assessed at Time 2 in response to four hypothetical vignettes depicting moral transgressions. Parallel process Latent Class Growth Analysis (PP-LCGA) identified six dual trajectories of reactive and proactive aggression. Children with either childhood-limited or adolescent-onset aggression showed high sensation seeking. Children with persistent, high levels of both reactive and proactive aggression across time showed high levels of sensation seeking and risk taking, as well as low levels of moral reasoning. Children with only high risk taking were more likely to display moderate levels of aggression across time. These findings highlight the shared and differential roles of sensation seeking, risk taking, and moral reasoning in the dual development of reactive and proactive aggression from mid-childhood to early adolescence. We discuss implications for common and tailored strategies to combat these aggression subtypes.

  11. Exploring Relationships among Proactiveness, Risk-Taking and Innovation Output in Family and Non-Family Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Craig, Justin B.; Pohjola, Mikko; Kraus, Sascha

    2014-01-01

    In an empirical investigation of 532 Finnish firms, and using the entrepreneurial orientation (EO) literature to frame our arguments, we demonstrate that relationships among proactivity, risk-taking and innovation output differ in family and non-family firms. Specifically, we find evidence...... that risk-taking does not affect innovation output in family firms, whereas in non-family firms, innovation output is increased through risk-taking. Also, proactive family firms influence their innovation output more positively than proactive non-family firms do. This study adds important new insights...... to the growing knowledge of EO, which are discussed in the following for both academic and business audiences....

  12. A cost-effectiveness analysis of a proactive management strategy for the Sprint Fidelis recall: a probabilistic decision analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashir, Jamil; Cowan, Simone; Raymakers, Adam; Yamashita, Michael; Danter, Matthew; Krahn, Andrew; Lynd, Larry D

    2013-12-01

    The management of the recall is complicated by the competing risks of lead failure and complications that can occur with lead revision. Many of these patients are currently undergoing an elective generator change--an ideal time to consider lead revision. To determine the cost-effectiveness of a proactive management strategy for the Sprint Fidelis recall. We obtained detailed clinical outcomes and costing data from a retrospective analysis of 341 patients who received the Sprint Fidelis lead in British Columbia, where patients younger than 60 years were offered lead extraction when undergoing generator replacement. These population-based data were used to construct and populate a probabilistic Markov model in which a proactive management strategy was compared to a conservative strategy to determine the incremental cost per lead failure avoided. In our population, elective lead revisions were half the cost of emergent revisions and had a lower complication rate. In the model, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of proactive lead revision versus a recommended monitoring strategy was $12,779 per lead failure avoided. The proactive strategy resulted in 21 fewer failures per 100 patients treated and reduced the chance of an additional complication from an unexpected surgery. Cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that prospective lead revision should be considered when patients with a Sprint Fidelis lead present for pulse generator change. Elective revision of the lead is justified even when 25% of the population is operated on per year, and in some scenarios, it is both less costly and provides a better outcome. © 2013 Heart Rhythm Society Published by Heart Rhythm Society All rights reserved.

  13. Mapping heat wave risk in the UK: Proactive planning for the 2050s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oven, Katie; Reaney, Sim; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Nodwell, Sarah; Curtis, Sarah; Riva, Mylène; Dunn, Christine; Val, Dimitri; Burkhard, Roland

    2010-05-01

    Climate change projections suggest an increased frequency of heat waves in the UK over the coming decades. Such extreme events pose a serious threat to human health and are likely to impact upon health and social care systems and the infrastructures supporting them. This stress will result from both increased demands upon healthcare services and the ability of the infrastructure to cope, such as sufficient climate control in hospitals. Certain sectors of the population, such as older people, have an increased susceptibility to heat waves and hence are the focus of this research. There is no universal definition of a heat wave, reflecting the acclimatisation of a population. Based on a review of the literature, this research therefore sets out a series of working definitions of a heat wave in the UK context from a human health perspective. Drawing on these definitions, the UK heat wave hazard was mapped for the 2050s (2040-2069) using daily minimum and maximum temperature data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator at 50 km resolution. The analysis was undertaken for the three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios within UKCP09 (low, medium and high). Hot spots of increased heat wave risk were identified and comparisons made between the various model outputs. These data were then combined with demographic forecasts for the 2050s enabling the identification of areas with an ageing population. Results are presented showing the scale of the projected change in heat wave risk across the UK and the location of older people. These results will be used in proactive planning to help policymakers and practitioners respond more appropriately to the needs of vulnerable populations in the coming decades. Key words: climate change; heat wave; risk mapping; vulnerability; risk reduction.

  14. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  15. Analysis Influence of Proactivity Power Business, Market Orientation, and Competitive Advantage toward Marketing Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Karmela Fitriani

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This research is an empirical study on Batik SMEs (Small Medium Enterprises in Cirebon District, West Java. This study analyzes the effect of proactivity power business, market orientation, and competitive advantage towards marketing performance. The subjects of this research were 215 Batik SMEs in Cirebon District West Java. The analysis was done using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM, AMOS ver. 18. The result shows that proactivity power business, market orientation, and competitive advantage give positive influence on marketing performance of  Batik SMEs. The research implication is when SME businesses focus on the effort in improving their proactivity power business and competitive advantage, it will give positive impact on marketing performance. Other research finding reveals that  the orientation of customer and orientation of competitor have some effects on marketing performance. In addition, SME businesses should know what customers want and they should be able to identify their competitors in order to improve their marketing performance.

  16. Proactive information provision for reducing social construct risk of nuclear facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitamura, Masaharu; Takahashi, Makoto; Hashizume, Hidetoshi; Shiraishi, Natsuki; Yagi, Ekou

    2006-01-01

    Outlines of, and the empirical observations from, an action research project aiming at improvement of relationship between nuclear community and the public have been reported in this paper. Ultimate goal of the project is effective reduction of social construct risk of nuclear power plants. As an initial approach to the goal, a proactive information provision scheme has been designed based on the knowledge acquired during our previous attempt of public communication named repetitive dialogue forum. The information contents consistent with the actual need of local citizens has been derived from the previous experiences and provided in the present project. Although the project is in its incipient stage, the observations are informative enough to develop the project further to attain the ultimate purpose of reducing the social construct component of technological risk of nuclear facilities. (author)

  17. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hidekazu, Yoshikawa; Ming, Yang; Zhijian, Zhang

    2011-01-01

    interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented......) with the risk monitor to watch Defense-in Depth plant safety functions. The proposed concept is applied for a liquid metal fast reactor Monju and necessary R&D subjects are reviewed to realize human interface system for the maintenance work in Monju plant. Because of using high temperature liquid sodium...... as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipments of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human...

  18. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  19. Pro-active approaches to the identification of emerging risks in the food chain: Retrospective case studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Kleter, G.A.; Kreft, F.; Leeuwen, van P.; Waalwijk, C.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    In this report six case studies are carried out on food-safety and animal-health crises that have occurred in the recent past. The aim is to learn from these cases if and how the identification of emerging food-safety (and animal-health) risks can be improved by adopting a (more) pro-active approach

  20. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Zhijian; Hashim, Muhammad [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Lind, Morten [Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby (Djibouti); Tamayama, Kiyoshi; Okusa, Kyoichi [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tsuruga (Japan)

    2011-08-15

    A new concept is first proposed of distributed human interface system to integrate both operation and maintenance of nuclear power plant. Then, a method of constructing human interface system is introduced by integrating the plant knowledge database system based on Multilevel Flow Model (MFM) with the risk monitor to watch Defense-in Depth plant safety functions. The proposed concept is applied for a liquid metal fast reactor Monju and necessary R and D subjects are reviewed to realize human interface system for the maintenance work in Monju plant. Because of using high temperature liquid sodium as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipment of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented target plant model before the concrete proposition of the hardware and software systems development to be used by both the staffs of operation and maintenance of NPP.

  1. Design Concept of Human Interface System for Risk Monitoring for Proactive Trouble Prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Zhijian; Hashim, Muhammad; Lind, Morten; Tamayama, Kiyoshi; Okusa, Kyoichi

    2011-01-01

    A new concept is first proposed of distributed human interface system to integrate both operation and maintenance of nuclear power plant. Then, a method of constructing human interface system is introduced by integrating the plant knowledge database system based on Multilevel Flow Model (MFM) with the risk monitor to watch Defense-in Depth plant safety functions. The proposed concept is applied for a liquid metal fast reactor Monju and necessary R and D subjects are reviewed to realize human interface system for the maintenance work in Monju plant. Because of using high temperature liquid sodium as reactor coolant in Monju plant, the maintenance for Monju should utilize more automated equipment of remote control and robotics than that of light water reactor. It is necessary to design optimum task allocation between human and automated machine as the requisites for good communication design of human interface systems to support the collaboration work between workers at local workplace and the main control room. In this paper, the general issues are reviewed on how to configure the whole human interface system for helping proactive trouble prevention and risk evaluation on the basis of the presented target plant model before the concrete proposition of the hardware and software systems development to be used by both the staffs of operation and maintenance of NPP

  2. Pioglitazone and the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with Type 2 diabetes receiving concomitant treatment with nitrates, renin-angiotensin system blockers, or insulin: results from the PROactive study (PROactive 20).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdmann, Erland; Spanheimer, Robert; Charbonnel, Bernard

    2010-09-01

    Patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are often treated with multiple glucose-lowering and cardiovascular agents. The concomitant use of nitrates, renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers, or insulin has been linked to a potential increase in myocardial ischemic risk with rosiglitazone. The PROactive database provides an opportunity to investigate the effects of these medications on the potential macrovascular benefits reported with pioglitazone. The PROactive study was a randomized double-blind prospective trial that evaluated mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in 5238 patients with T2DM and macrovascular disease. Patients received pioglitazone or placebo in addition to their baseline glucose-lowering and cardiovascular medications. The effect of pioglitazone on composite endpoints was evaluated, including all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke, as well as safety events of edema and serious heart failure, in subgroups using nitrates, RAS blockers, or insulin at baseline. The risk of all-cause death, MI, and stroke for pioglitazone versus placebo was similar regardless of the baseline use of nitrates, RAS blockers, or insulin, with hazard ratios ranging from 0.81 to 0.87. Similar results were obtained for the other composite endpoints analyzed. There were no significant interactions between baseline medication subgroups and treatment. The increased risk of edema and serious heart failure was consistent across the baseline medication subgroups. This post hoc analysis did not reveal an increased risk of macrovascular events with pioglitazone in patients receiving nitrates, RAS blockers, or insulin. Rather, all patients realized the same trend towards benefit with pioglitazone, and adverse events of edema and heart failure were predictable. © 2010 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  3. Proactive Reviews

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolbæk, Ditte

    2014-01-01

    with solving a task. They found improved ways of doing the job and identified management challenges. They shared their experience with colleagues who did not attend the Proactive Review and addressed the management challenges to the senior management. Proactive Reviews were reported 50-100 times a year....... Valid feedback from various stakeholders improved the original design of After Action Reviews into Proactive Reviews, which is helpful for local as well as global companies to learn from experience. The educational design started with personal experience that was shared with colleagues who cooperated...

  4. Proactive Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolbæk, Ditte

    2015-01-01

    This chapter will explore how to learn from working experience through the use of an educational approach called Proactive Review. From 2005 to 2012, Proactive Review was developed and implemented in a world-class IT company based in more than 40 countries across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa....... This chapter will include some of the theoretical considerations as well as the final educational design for a Proactive Review, as exemplified in a case study from the IT company. The aim of this chapter is to provide a theoretically based and proven educational design for Lessons Learned, including...... recommendations for successful Proactive Reviews. The theory section will explore theories regarding the following two topics: first, how an organization may understand the term “learning”; and second, the starting point of learning and how an organization may maintain a learning environment. The research...

  5. Proactive assessment of becoming airline pilots to risk and safety activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О.М. Рева

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available  Construction procedure of distance criterion functions between two AN–24 aircrafts during approach by pilots after a limited number of points is applied. Their propensity, averseness or indifference to the stochastic risk turns out from the analysis of these functions. Accordance between numeral values of function characteristic points and qualitative risk regulation in the ICAO «risk triangle» is set. Due to experimental test REDID the    degree of flying personnel disposition to dangerous conduct states, operative thinking and decision–making is defined.

  6. Proactive vs. reactive learning on buildings response and earthquake risks, in schools of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela DOBRE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available During the last 20 years, many specific activities of earthquake education and preparedness were initiated and supported in Romania by drafting materials for citizens, students, professors etc. (Georgescu et al., 2004, 2006. The education, training and information on earthquake disaster potential are important factors to mitigate the earthquake effects. Such activities, however, need time to be developed and may take different forms of presentation in order to capture the attention, to increase interest, to develop skills and attitudes in order to induce a proper behavior towards safety preparedness. It shall also be based on the accumulation of concerns and knowledge, which are, in principle, a consequence of the motivation, but which depend on the methods applied and actions taken for efficient earthquake preparedness, assessed and updated following actual earthquakes (Masuda, Midorikawa, Miki and Ohmachi, 1988. We are now at a crossroad and the proactive attitude and behavior (anticipative and participative needs to be extended in learning, within institutional framework, but correlated with the usual targets of schools and teenagers proactive issue (ROEDUSEIS-NET; Page and Page, 2003, by encouraging students in activities closer to earthquake engineering.

  7. Standards for gene therapy clinical trials based on pro-active risk assessment in a London NHS Teaching Hospital Trust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamford, K B; Wood, S; Shaw, R J

    2005-02-01

    Conducting gene therapy clinical trials with genetically modified organisms as the vectors presents unique safety and infection control issues. The area is governed by a range of legislation and guidelines, some unique to this field, as well as those pertinent to any area of clinical work. The relevant regulations covering gene therapy using genetically modified vectors are reviewed and illustrated with the approach taken by a large teaching hospital NHS Trust. Key elements were Trust-wide communication and involvement of staff in a pro-active approach to risk management, with specific emphasis on staff training and engagement, waste management, audit and record keeping. This process has led to the development of proposed standards for clinical trials involving genetically modified micro-organisms.

  8. Developmental Change in Proactive Interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kail, Robert

    2002-01-01

    Two studies examined age-related change in proactive interference from previously learned material. The meta-analysis of 26 studies indicated that proactive interference decreased with age. The cross-sectional study found that third through sixth graders' and college students' recall was accurate on Trial 1, but became less so over Trials 2…

  9. A Release from Proactive Interference Analysis of Gender Schema Encoding for Occupations in Adults and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, D.W.; Gregory-Domingue, A.; Rice, K.; Tone, K.

    2005-01-01

    The present study examined gender schema encoding (activation of gender stereotypes) in the absence deliberate purposes relating to people (stereotype application). A release from proactive interference short-term-memory task was used. College (Experiment 1) and sixth-grade (Experiment 2) participants were asked to retain item identity and…

  10. A Proactive and Top-Down Approach to Managing Risk at NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    Our ultimate goal is to manage risk in a holistic and coherent fashion across the Agency: a) The RIDM process is intended to risk-inform direction-setting decisions. c) The CRM process is intended to manage risk associated with the implementation of baseline performance requirements. Currently we are working on: a) Enhancements to the CRM process. b) Better integration of the RIDM and CRM processes. c) Better integration of institutional risk considerations into RM framework.

  11. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  12. Proactive Routing Mutation Against Stealthy Distributed Denial of Service Attacks – Metrics, Modeling and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Qi; Al-Shaer, Ehab; Chatterjee, Samrat; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Oehmen, Christopher S.

    2018-04-01

    The Infrastructure Distributed Denial of Service (IDDoS) attacks continue to be one of the most devastating challenges facing cyber systems. The new generation of IDDoS attacks exploit the inherent weakness of cyber infrastructure including deterministic nature of routes, skew distribution of flows, and Internet ossification to discover the network critical links and launch highly stealthy flooding attacks that are not observable at the victim end. In this paper, first, we propose a new metric to quantitatively measure the potential susceptibility of any arbitrary target server or domain to stealthy IDDoS attacks, and es- timate the impact of such susceptibility on enterprises. Second, we develop a proactive route mutation technique to minimize the susceptibility to these attacks by dynamically changing the flow paths periodically to invalidate the adversary knowledge about the network and avoid targeted critical links. Our proposed approach actively changes these network paths while satisfying security and qualify of service requirements. We present an integrated approach of proactive route mutation that combines both infrastructure-based mutation that is based on reconfiguration of switches and routers, and middle-box approach that uses an overlay of end-point proxies to construct a virtual network path free of critical links to reach a destination. We implemented the proactive path mutation technique on a Software Defined Network using the OpendDaylight controller to demonstrate a feasible deployment of this approach. Our evaluation validates the correctness, effectiveness, and scalability of the proposed approaches.

  13. A Proactive Approach to High Risk Delirium Patients Undergoing Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Andres F; Post, Zachary D; Orozco, Fabio R; Lutz, Rex W; Ong, Alvin C

    2018-04-01

    Delirium is a common complication among elderly patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Its incidence has been reported from 4% to 53%. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services consider delirium following TJA a "never-event." The purpose of this study is to evaluate a simple perioperative protocol used to identify delirium risk patients and prevent its incidence following TJA. Our group developed a protocol to identify and prevent delirium in patients undergoing TJA. All patients were screened and scored in the preoperative assessment, on criteria such as age, history of forgetfulness, history of agitation or visual hallucinations, history of falls, history of postoperative confusion, and inability to perform higher brain functions. Patients were scored on performance in a simple mental examination. The patients were classified as low, medium, or high risk. Patients who were identified as high risk were enrolled in a delirium avoidance protocol that minimized narcotics and emphasized nursing involvement and fluids administration. Five of 7659 (0.065%) consecutive TJA patients from 2010 to 2015 developed delirium. A total of 422 patients were identified as high risk. All 5 patients who suffered delirium were within the high risk group. No low or medium risk patients suffered a delirium complication. Three (0.039%) patients suffered drug-induced delirium, 1 (0.013%) had delirium related to alcohol withdrawal, and 1 (0.013%) had delirium after a systemic infection. This protocol is effective in identifying patients at high delirium risk and diminishing the incidence of this complication by utilizing a simple screening tool and perioperative protocol. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Managing the risks of proactivity: A multilevel study of initiative and performance in the middle management context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glaser, L.; Stam, W.; Takeuchi, R.

    2016-01-01

    Drawing on theories of behavioral decision making and situational strength, we developed and tested a multilevel model that explains how the performance outcomes of personal initiative tendency depend on the extent of alignment between organizational control mechanisms and proactive individuals'

  15. A platform for proactive, risk-based slope asset management, phase II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    The lidar visualization technique developed by this project enables highway managers to understand changes in slope characteristics : along highways. This change detection and analysis can be the basis of informed decisions for slope inspection and r...

  16. A Model for Proactively Insuring SMEs in the Supply Chain Against Cyber Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Henson, Richard; Sutcliffe, D.

    2013-01-01

    There has been increasing concern in recent years about the lack of urgency in SMEs regarding security of their information. Concern stems not only from the risks the SMEs are taking not only with their own data, but also with the data they share with supply chain partners. Current surveys have shown that the situation is getting worse with human error compounded by cybercriminals exploiting weaknesses in SME systems and using them to hack supply chain hubs.\\ud \\ud In this paper, a researcher...

  17. From Risk to Opportunity. How Insurers Can Proactively and Profitably Manage Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, E.; Lecomte, E.

    2006-08-01

    Last year's USD 45 billion of insured losses from Hurricane Katrina was only the latest reminder of why investors and consumers are concerned about the impacts of climate change on the insurance industry. Twelve months after the devastating storm hit New Orleans, insurers and their shareholders are still feeling the ripples. Record insured losses, rating downgrades, coverage pullbacks and class-action lawsuits are just a few of the reverberations that have been felt across the industry. Meanwhile, consumers are feeling the combined sting of price shocks and reduced availability. So serious is the issue that 20 leading investors, representing over $800 billion in assets, called on the nation's largest insurance companies to disclose their financial exposure from climate change and steps they are taking to reduce those financial impacts. But, while most of the attention is focused on the growing risks, climate change also creates vast business opportunities to be part of the solution to global warming. Just as the industry has historically asserted its leadership to minimize risks from building fires and earthquakes, insurers have a huge opportunity today to develop creative loss-prevention products and services that will reduce climate-related losses for consumers, governments and insurers, while trimming the emissions causing global warming. This report focuses on the encouraging progress made by insurers to develop these new products and services. It identifies more than 190 concrete examples available, or soon-to-be-available, from dozens of insurance providers in 16 countries. In addition to benefiting insurers' core business and investment activities, these programs afford insurers the opportunity to differentiate their products from their competitors, while also enhancing their reputation with customers who are increasingly looking for all sectors of the industry to come forward with effective responses to the threats caused by climate change. More than half

  18. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  19. Tools for Developing a Quality Management Program: Proactive Tools (Process Mapping, Value Stream Mapping, Fault Tree Analysis, and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, Frank

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the concepts of quality management (QM) and quality assurance (QA), as well as the current state of QM and QA practices in radiotherapy. A systematic approach incorporating a series of industrial engineering-based tools is proposed, which can be applied in health care organizations proactively to improve process outcomes, reduce risk and/or improve patient safety, improve through-put, and reduce cost. This tool set includes process mapping and process flowcharting, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), value stream mapping, and fault tree analysis (FTA). Many health care organizations do not have experience in applying these tools and therefore do not understand how and when to use them. As a result there are many misconceptions about how to use these tools, and they are often incorrectly applied. This article describes these industrial engineering-based tools and also how to use them, when they should be used (and not used), and the intended purposes for their use. In addition the strengths and weaknesses of each of these tools are described, and examples are given to demonstrate the application of these tools in health care settings

  20. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  1. A trend analysis of human error events for proactive prevention of accidents. Methodology development and effective utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirotsu, Yuko; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Takeshi; Matsubara, Katsuyuki

    2006-01-01

    This paper described methods for analyzing human error events that has been accumulated in the individual plant and for utilizing the result to prevent accidents proactively. Firstly, a categorization framework of trigger action and causal factors of human error events were reexamined, and the procedure to analyze human error events was reviewed based on the framework. Secondly, a method for identifying the common characteristics of trigger action data and of causal factor data accumulated by analyzing human error events was clarified. In addition, to utilize the results of trend analysis effectively, methods to develop teaching material for safety education, to develop the checkpoints for the error prevention and to introduce an error management process for strategic error prevention were proposed. (author)

  2. EFFECTS OF PROACTIVE PERSONALITY ON POLITICAL SKILLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahsin AKÇAKANAT

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the effect of the proactive personality on the political skills of the administrative staff working at the university. For this purpose, Proactive Personality Scale (Claes et.al., 2005 and Political Skill Inventory (Ferris et.al.:2005 were conducted for university administrative staff. The relationship between proactive personality traits and political skills of the staff was determined through correlation and regression analysis. As a result, it has been found that proactive personality has a significant effect in explaining both its general political skill and its sub-dimensions.

  3. Trend analysis of human error events and assessment of their proactive prevention measure at Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazaki, Satoru; Tanaka, Izumi; Wakabayashi, Toshio

    2012-01-01

    A trend analysis of human error events is important for preventing the recurrence of human error events. We propose a new method for identifying the common characteristics from results of trend analysis, such as the latent weakness of organization, and a management process for strategic error prevention. In this paper, we describe a trend analysis method for human error events that have been accumulated in the organization and the utilization of the results of trend analysis to prevent accidents proactively. Although the systematic analysis of human error events, the monitoring of their overall trend, and the utilization of the analyzed results have been examined for the plant operation, such information has never been utilized completely. Sharing information on human error events and analyzing their causes lead to the clarification of problems in the management and human factors. This new method was applied to the human error events that occurred in the Rokkasho reprocessing plant from 2010 October. Results revealed that the output of this method is effective in judging the error prevention plan and that the number of human error events is reduced to about 50% those observed in 2009 and 2010. (author)

  4. Analysis of cross-correlations in electroencephalogram signals as an approach to proactive diagnosis of schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timashev, Serge F.; Panischev, Oleg Yu.; Polyakov, Yuriy S.; Demin, Sergey A.; Kaplan, Alexander Ya.

    2012-02-01

    We apply flicker-noise spectroscopy (FNS), a time series analysis method operating on structure functions and power spectrum estimates, to study the clinical electroencephalogram (EEG) signals recorded in children/adolescents (11 to 14 years of age) with diagnosed schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms at the National Center for Psychiatric Health (NCPH) of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. The EEG signals for these subjects were compared with the signals for a control sample of chronically depressed children/adolescents. The purpose of the study is to look for diagnostic signs of subjects' susceptibility to schizophrenia in the FNS parameters for specific electrodes and cross-correlations between the signals simultaneously measured at different points on the scalp. Our analysis of EEG signals from scalp-mounted electrodes at locations F3 and F4, which are symmetrically positioned in the left and right frontal areas of cerebral cortex, respectively, demonstrates an essential role of frequency-phase synchronization, a phenomenon representing specific correlations between the characteristic frequencies and phases of excitations in the brain. We introduce quantitative measures of frequency-phase synchronization and systematize the values of FNS parameters for the EEG data. The comparison of our results with the medical diagnoses for 84 subjects performed at NCPH makes it possible to group the EEG signals into 4 categories corresponding to different risk levels of subjects' susceptibility to schizophrenia. We suggest that the introduced quantitative characteristics and classification of cross-correlations may be used for the diagnosis of schizophrenia at the early stages of its development.

  5. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  6. The ProActive trial protocol – a randomised controlled trial of the efficacy of a family-based, domiciliary intervention programme to increase physical activity among individuals at high risk of diabetes [ISRCTN61323766

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekelund Ulf

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increasing prevalence of obesity and disorders associated with sedentary living constitute a major global public health problem. While previous evaluations of interventions to increase physical activity have involved communities or individuals with established disease, less attention has been given to interventions for individuals at risk of disease. Methods/design ProActive aims to evaluate the efficacy of a theoretical, evidence- and family-based intervention programme to increase physical activity in a sedentary population, defined as being at-risk through having a parental family history of diabetes. Primary care diabetes or family history registers were used to recruit 365 individuals aged 30–50 years, screened for activity level. Participants were assigned by central randomisation to three intervention programmes: brief written advice (comparison group, or a psychologically based behavioural change programme, delivered either by telephone (distance group or face-to-face in the family home over one year. The protocol-driven intervention programme is delivered by trained facilitators, and aims to support increases in physical activity through the introduction and facilitation of a range of self-regulatory skills (e.g. goal setting. The primary outcome is daytime energy expenditure and its ratio to resting energy expenditure, measured at baseline and one year using individually calibrated heart rate monitoring. Secondary measures include self-report of individual and family activity, psychological mediators of behaviour change, physiological and biochemical correlates, acceptability, and costs, measured at baseline, six months and one year. The primary intention to treat analysis will compare groups at one-year post randomisation. Estimation of the impact on diabetes incidence will be modelled using data from a parallel ten-year cohort study using similar measures. Discussion ProActive is the first efficacy trial of an

  7. High Performance Proactive Digital Forensics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alharbi, Soltan; Traore, Issa; Moa, Belaid; Weber-Jahnke, Jens

    2012-01-01

    With the increase in the number of digital crimes and in their sophistication, High Performance Computing (HPC) is becoming a must in Digital Forensics (DF). According to the FBI annual report, the size of data processed during the 2010 fiscal year reached 3,086 TB (compared to 2,334 TB in 2009) and the number of agencies that requested Regional Computer Forensics Laboratory assistance increasing from 689 in 2009 to 722 in 2010. Since most investigation tools are both I/O and CPU bound, the next-generation DF tools are required to be distributed and offer HPC capabilities. The need for HPC is even more evident in investigating crimes on clouds or when proactive DF analysis and on-site investigation, requiring semi-real time processing, are performed. Although overcoming the performance challenge is a major goal in DF, as far as we know, there is almost no research on HPC-DF except for few papers. As such, in this work, we extend our work on the need of a proactive system and present a high performance automated proactive digital forensic system. The most expensive phase of the system, namely proactive analysis and detection, uses a parallel extension of the iterative z algorithm. It also implements new parallel information-based outlier detection algorithms to proactively and forensically handle suspicious activities. To analyse a large number of targets and events and continuously do so (to capture the dynamics of the system), we rely on a multi-resolution approach to explore the digital forensic space. Data set from the Honeynet Forensic Challenge in 2001 is used to evaluate the system from DF and HPC perspectives.

  8. Proactive error analysis of ultrasound-guided axillary brachial plexus block performance.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Sullivan, Owen

    2012-07-13

    Detailed description of the tasks anesthetists undertake during the performance of a complex procedure, such as ultrasound-guided peripheral nerve blockade, allows elements that are vulnerable to human error to be identified. We have applied 3 task analysis tools to one such procedure, namely, ultrasound-guided axillary brachial plexus blockade, with the intention that the results may form a basis to enhance training and performance of the procedure.

  9. Impact of a physical activity intervention program on cognitive predictors of behaviour among adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes (ProActive randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutton Stephen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the ProActive Trial an intensive theory-based intervention program was no more effective than theory-based brief advice in increasing objectively measured physical activity among adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes. We aimed to illuminate these findings by assessing whether the intervention program changed cognitions about increasing activity, defined by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, in ways consistent with the theory. Methods N = 365 sedentary participants aged 30–50 years with a parental history of Type 2 diabetes were randomised to brief advice alone or to brief advice plus the intervention program delivered face-to-face or by telephone. Questionnaires at baseline, 6 and 12 months assessed cognitions about becoming more physically active. Analysis of covariance was used to test intervention impact. Bootstrapping was used to test multiple mediation of intervention impact. Results At 6 months, combined intervention groups (face-to-face and telephone reported that they found increasing activity more enjoyable (affective attitude, d = .25, and they perceived more instrumental benefits (e.g., improving health (d = .23 and more control (d = .32 over increasing activity than participants receiving brief advice alone. Stronger intentions (d = .50 in the intervention groups than the brief advice group at 6 months were partially explained by affective attitude and perceived control. At 12 months, intervention groups perceived more positive instrumental (d = .21 and affective benefits (d = .29 than brief advice participants. The intervention did not change perceived social pressure to increase activity. Conclusion Lack of effect of the intervention program on physical activity over and above brief advice was consistent with limited and mostly small short-term effects on cognitions. Targeting affective benefits (e.g., enjoyment, social interaction and addressing barriers to physical activity may strengthen intentions, but

  10. Identity Building in Organisations: Proactive Capability Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    Identity building in organisations is often viewed as legitimacy of value systems of the organisation. Based on empirical studies the task of this article is to argue that such a legitimacy approach risks failing in the longer perspective, if the proactive capability development is neglected....... The participatory scenario method presented in this article is one of the possible methods to enhance identity building based on proactive capability development....

  11. Proactive Public Disclosure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boll, Karen; Tell, Michael

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses proactive public disclosure of taxpayer information and how this may form a new strategy for securing tax compliance by tax administrators. It reports a case study from the Danish Customs and Tax Administration in which consumers of services–over a short period of time...... proactive public disclosure is compatible with the Duty of Confidentiality, but incompatible with Good Public Governance. Furthermore, the analyses show that there are a number of strong organizational rationales for using proactive public disclosure, despite its apparent incompatibility with Good Public...... Governance. The article is innovative in that it combines a legal and organizational approach to analyse a new regulatory strategy within tax administration....

  12. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  13. Reduction in cardiovascular risk using a proactive multifactorial intervention is consistent among patients residing in Pacific Asian and non-Pacific Asian regions: a CRUCIAL trial subanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cho EJ

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Eun Joo Cho,1 Jae Hyung Kim,1 Santosh Sutradhar,2 Carla Yunis,2 Mogens Westergaard2On behalf of the CRUCIAL trial investigators1Department of Cardiology, St Paul's Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea; 2Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USABackground: Few trials have compared different approaches to cardiovascular disease prevention among Pacific Asian (PA populations. The Cluster Randomized Usual Care versus Caduet Investigation Assessing Long-term-risk (CRUCIAL trial demonstrated that a proactive multifactorial intervention (PMI approach (based on single-pill amlodipine/atorvastatin resulted in a greater reduction in calculated Framingham 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD risk compared with usual care (UC among hypertensive patients with additional risk factors. One-third of CRUCIAL patients resided in the PA region. The aim of this subanalysis was to compare two approaches to cardiovascular risk factor management (PMI versus UC among patients residing in PA and non-PA regions.Methods: This subanalysis of the CRUCIAL trial compared treatment-related changes in calculated CHD risk among patients residing in PA and non-PA regions. Sensitivity analyses were conducted among men and women and those with and without diabetes.Results: Overall, 448 patients (31.6% resided in the PA region and 969 patients (68.4% resided in non-PA regions. The PMI approach was more effective in reducing calculated CHD risk versus UC in both PA (−37.1% versus −3.5%; P<0.001 and non-PA regions (−31.1% versus −4.2%; P<0.001; region interaction P=0.131. PA patients had slightly greater reductions in total cholesterol compared with non-PA patients. PA patients without diabetes had slightly greater reductions in CHD risk compared with non-PA patients. Treatment effects were similar in men and women and those with diabetes.Conclusion: The PMI approach was more effective in reducing calculated Framingham 10-year CHD risk compared with UC among men and

  14. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  15. Improving Risk Management and Resiliency: A Plan for a Proactive National Policy on Insurance Practices in FEMA’s Public Assistance Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    and reduce insurance costs. 178 Department of Finance and Deregulation , “Managing the Cost of Damage to Road Infrastructure Caused by Natural...MANAGEMENT AND RESILIENCY: A PLAN FOR A PROACTIVE NATIONAL POLICY ON INSURANCE PRACTICES IN FEMA’S PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM by Gregory W. Eaton...AND RESILIENCY: A PLAN FOR A PROACTIVE NATIONAL POLICY ON INSURANCE PRACTICES IN FEMA’S PUBLIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S

  16. Learning Analytics at Low Cost: At-Risk Student Prediction with Clicker Data and Systematic Proactive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Samuel P. M.; Lam, S. S.; Li, Kam Cheong; Wong, Billy T. M.

    2018-01-01

    While learning analytics (LA) practices have been shown to be practical and effective, most of them require a huge amount of data and effort. This paper reports a case study which demonstrates the feasibility of practising LA at a low cost for instructors to identify at-risk students in an undergraduate business quantitative methods course.…

  17. Proactive control of proactive interference using the method of loci

    OpenAIRE

    Bass, Willa S.; Oswald, Karl M.

    2014-01-01

    Proactive interferencebuilds up with exposure to multiple lists of similar items with a resulting reduction in recall. This study examined the effectiveness of using a proactive strategy of the method of loci to reduce proactive interference in a list recall paradigm of categorically similar words. While all participants reported using some form of strategy to recall list words, this study demonstrated that young adults were able to proactively use the method of loci after 25 min of instructi...

  18. Proactive control of proactive interference using the method of loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Willa S; Oswald, Karl M

    2014-01-01

    Proactive interferencebuilds up with exposure to multiple lists of similar items with a resulting reduction in recall. This study examined the effectiveness of using a proactive strategy of the method of loci to reduce proactive interference in a list recall paradigm of categorically similar words. While all participants reported using some form of strategy to recall list words, this study demonstrated that young adults were able to proactively use the method of loci after 25 min of instruction to reduce proactive interference as compared with other personal spontaneous strategies. The implications of this study are that top-down proactive strategies such as the method of loci can significantly reduce proactive interference, and that the use of image and sequence or location are especially useful in this regard.

  19. A Policy Analysis on the Proactive Prevention of Chronic Disease: Learnings from the Initial Implementation of Integrated Measurement for Early Detection (MIDO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Tapia-Conyer

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Mexico, like many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, faces an epidemic of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs, specifically diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and lipid disorders. Many people with these NCDs may not be aware that they have a disease, pointing to the need for broader screening programs. The traditional prevention policy in Mexico was based on screening with a paper-based risk factor questionnaire. However, this was used to screen patients already seeking healthcare services at facilities, and screening goals were set as a function of the number of questionnaires applied, not number of individuals screened. Due to this, Fundación Carlos Slim developed Medición Integrada para la Detección Oportuna (MIDOTM, or Integrated Measurement for Early Detection, an NCD screening and proactive prevention policy. This document is a policy analysis based on early learnings from the initial implementation of MIDO in eight primary healthcare centers in two central Mexican states. MIDO was found to expand screening programs beyond clinic walls, systematize community screening strategies, emphasize the detection of pre-disease phases, incorporate lifestyle counseling, and propose screening goals based on population targets. In collaboration with the Mexican Ministry of Health, MIDO has successfully screened over 500 000 individuals—about 40% of whom would not have been screened under previous policies. Of these more than 500 000 screened individuals, 13.4% had pre-diabetes (fasting glucose between 100 and 125 mg/dL, and 5.8% had undiagnosed diabetes (defined as fasting glucose above 126 mg/dL or random glucose above 200 mg/dL. However, there is still room for improvement in linking positive results from screening with disease confirmation and with patient incorporation into disease management. The experience of implementing MIDO in Mexico suggests that primary and secondary prevention programs in other parts of the world should

  20. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  2. Proactive Parent Engagement in Public Schools: Using a Brief Strengths and Needs Assessment in a Multiple-Gating Risk Management Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kevin J.; Garbacz, S. Andrew; Gau, Jeff M.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Brown, Kimbree L.; Stormshak, Elizabeth A.; Seeley, John R.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the viability of a brief, parent-reported strengths and needs assessment as the first step in a multiple-gating approach to proactive positive behavior support for families. The "Positive Family Support--Strengths and Needs Assessment" (PFS-SaNA) was designed to collaboratively engage parents early in the school year…

  3. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  4. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  5. Assessment Needs Analysis for Developing Mobile Apps to Encourage Proactive Preventive Medicine Education Among Young Military Personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Leo, Gianluca; Bonacina, Stefano; Brivio, Eleonora; Cuper, Taryn

    2012-04-01

    International travel to underdeveloped areas where both hygienic conditions and sufficient medical care are often in short supply can pose severe health risks. Infectious disease is one of the most common health risks for military forces deployed overseas. Careful personal hygiene and early symptom recognition serve as important steps in averting potential illness. With the ubiquitous deployment threat of chemical and biological warfare agents, the benefit of early detection and action can ultimately be critical for survival. Nowadays game-based learning models, made available on mobile devices in the form of apps, can provide relevant medical knowledge, and they can effectively reach a young military population. The aims of this preliminary research project are twofold: (1) We want to investigate whether young U.S. Army personnel would be open to the use of mobile apps while deployed abroad, and (2) we want to share the research design adopted with the intent of providing a baseline methodology that can be used in future larger studies. We recruited and interviewed Reserve Officers' Training Corps cadets at a university in the United States. Focus groups have been adopted as a research tool for collecting data. Open and close-ended questions were used during the focus group. Four domains were investigated: Cell phone usage, game console perceptions, game genre preferences, and gaming habits and perceptions. The analysis of the focus group data reported that young military personnel often play with videogames and that they prefer first person Action/Combat genre. The data also showed that they do not consider playing videogames to be a leisure activity but a part of their lives. The preliminary results of this study suggest that games on cell phones could be considered as a platform for teaching young military personnel medical-related concepts and health safety procedures.

  6. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  7. Adversarial risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

    2015-01-01

    Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

  8. Conceptual framework for proactive crisis enterprise management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Merzlikina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There has been a significant increase in requests for recognition of the debtor insolvent, this situation actualize proactive crisis management in combination with low rehabilitation potential of the institution of bankruptcy since 2014. The crisеs in the development of enterprises are inevitable, moreover it can have positive aspects, for example, increase the company's susceptibility to progress and prevention of more serious crises, so the main objective of proactive crisis management isn`t the avoidance of crisis but optimization of the crisis process. Optimization of process involves the correlation of the costs of implementation of preventive measures and available resources to allocated resources are sufficient for implementation of all phases of proactive crisis solutions, but at the same time, the company has not incurred unreasonably high costs. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of definitions of “proactivecrisis management” and specified the content of this concept. The adoptionprocess of proactive crisis solutions should be clearly structured, so the authors highlighted and discussed in detail the process of adoption of proactivecrisis solutions, which includes 4 stages: obtaining information about the internal and external enterprise environment, the stage of processing the gathered information and taking necessary proactive crisis decisions, the implementation of the adopted decisions and control their implementation.Modern tools of proactivecrisis management are varied and take into account the specifics of modern Russian system of market relations, because they include analysis of internal and external enterprise environment, quantitative and qualitative indicators. The authors suggest to consider innovation as one of the possible instruments of preventive crisis management.

  9. Environmental risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

    1996-01-01

    The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

  10. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  11. Proactive malware detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gloster, Jonathan; Diep, Michael; Dredden, David; Mix, Matthew; Olsen, Mark; Price, Brian; Steil, Betty

    2014-06-01

    Small-to-medium sized businesses lack resources to deploy and manage high-end advanced solutions to deter sophisticated threats from well-funded adversaries, but evidence shows that these types of businesses are becoming key targets. As malicious code and network attacks become more sophisticated, classic signature-based virus and malware detection methods are less effective. To augment the current malware methods of detection, we developed a proactive approach to detect emerging malware threats using open source tools and intelligence to discover patterns and behaviors of malicious attacks and adversaries. Technical and analytical skills are combined to track adversarial behavior, methods and techniques. We established a controlled (separated domain) network to identify, monitor, and track malware behavior to increase understanding of the methods and techniques used by cyber adversaries. We created a suite of tools that observe the network and system performance looking for anomalies that may be caused by malware. The toolset collects information from open-source tools and provides meaningful indicators that the system was under or has been attacked. When malware is discovered, we analyzed and reverse engineered it to determine how it could be detected and prevented. Results have shown that with minimum resources, cost effective capabilities can be developed to detect abnormal behavior that may indicate malicious software.

  12. Risk analysis and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

  13. Proactive Self Defense in Cyberspace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Caulkins, Bruce D

    2009-01-01

    ... and standards to properly secure and defend the Global Information Grid (GIG) from cyber attacks. This paper will discuss the strategic requirements for enacting a proactive self-defense mechanism in cyberspace...

  14. Mare Risk Analysis monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

  15. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  16. Proactive life extension of pressure vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mager, Lloyd

    1998-03-01

    For a company to maintain its competitive edge in today's global market every opportunity to gain an advantage must be exploited. Many companies are strategically focusing on improved utilization of existing equipment as well as regulatory compliance. Abbott Laboratories is no exception. Pharmaceutical companies such as Abbott Laboratories realize that reliability and availability of their production equipment is critical to be successful and competitive. Abbott Laboratories, like many of our competitors, is working to improve safety, minimize downtime and maximize the productivity and efficiency of key production equipment such as the pressure vessels utilized in our processes. The correct strategy in obtaining these objectives is to perform meaningful inspection with prioritization based on hazard analysis and risk. The inspection data gathered in Abbott Laboratories pressure vessel program allows informed decisions leading to improved process control. The results of the program are reduced risks to the corporation and employees when operating pressure retaining equipment. Accurate and meaningful inspection methods become the cornerstone of a program allowing proper preventative maintenance actions to occur. Successful preventative/predictive maintenance programs must utilize meaningful nondestructive evaluation techniques and inspection methods. Nondestructive examination methods require accurate useful tools that allow rapid inspection for the entire pressure vessel. Results from the examination must allow the owner to prove compliance of all applicable regulatory laws and codes. At Abbott Laboratories the use of advanced NDE techniques, primarily B-scan ultrasonics, has provided us with the proper tools allowing us to obtain our objectives. Abbott Laboratories uses B-scan ultrasonics utilizing a pulse echo pitch catch technique to provide essential data on our pressure vessels. Equipment downtime is reduced because the nondestructive examination usually takes

  17. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  18. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2018-03-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  19. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  20. Employability Transcripts: Proactive Career Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Elaine

    2010-01-01

    With high school dropout rates at about 30 percent nationwide and an anticipated severe workforce shortage as baby boomers retire, now is the time to engage future workers. Educators must encourage high school students to be proactive career planners. Today's high school students will fuel the workforce pipeline with educated, skilled workers who…

  1. Sleep can reduce proactive interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Magdalena; Bäuml, Karl-Heinz T

    2014-01-01

    Sleep has repeatedly been connected to processes of memory consolidation. While extensive research indeed documents beneficial effects of sleep on memory, little is yet known about the role of sleep for interference effects in episodic memory. Although two prior studies reported sleep to reduce retroactive interference, no sleep effect has previously been found for proactive interference. Here we applied a study format differing from that employed by the prior studies to induce a high degree of proactive interference, and asked participants to encode a single list or two interfering lists of paired associates via pure study cycles. Testing occurred after 12 hours of diurnal wakefulness or nocturnal sleep. Consistent with the prior work, we found sleep in comparison to wake did not affect memory for the single list, but reduced retroactive interference. In addition we found sleep reduced proactive interference, and reduced retroactive and proactive interference to the same extent. The finding is consistent with the view that arising benefits of sleep are caused by the reactivation of memory contents during sleep, which has been suggested to strengthen and stabilise memories. Such stabilisation may make memories less susceptible to competition from interfering memories at test and thus reduce interference effects.

  2. Possibilities for Proactive Library Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Eric Lease

    1999-01-01

    Considers ways in which library services can be more proactive in today's networked-computer environment. Discusses how to find and use patterns of behavior, such as borrowing behavior and profiles of patrons' interests; making a CD-ROM with information describing the library's services and products; and reviving telephone reference. (LRW)

  3. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  4. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  5. Proactive Degradation Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Leonard J.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2011-01-01

    Robust growth in the nuclear power industry is anticipated as surging global demand for electricity converges with the desire to minimize carbon emissions. There are currently 439 nuclear power plants (NPP) in the commercial global fleet and by some estimates another 222 projects are in various stages of development. For both existing and new plant designs there are increasing needs for the application of advanced online surveillance, diagnostic and prognostic techniques to continuously monitor and assess the health of NPP systems and components. The added effectiveness of such programs has the potential to enable holistic plant management, and minimize exposure to future and unknown risks. This article makes the case for the use of a prognostic approach.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  7. Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

    OpenAIRE

    Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

  8. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  9. Proactive Assessment for Collaboration Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa L. Ju

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a government–academia–industry joint training project that produces Vietnamese midlevel technical managers. To ensure collaboration success, a proactive assessment methodology was developed as a supplement to the conventional project management practices. In the postproject feedback, the funding agencies acknowledged that the project fulfilled its contractual obligations and achieved its objectives. The implementing university was pleased as it broke ground in this type of collaboration in Taiwan. The industrial partners, however, were not so sure about the effectiveness of this collaborative training endeavor because there were many skirmishes between company supervisors and Vietnamese interns caused by the interns’ self-interested perception and expectation. Consequently, a theoretical framework for predicting internship acceptance and preventing unfavorable perceptions was proposed to strengthen the proactive assessment methodology. Collaboration research, funding agencies, academia, and industry could all benefit from this study.

  10. Proactive ecology for the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid, directional global changes that characterize the Anthropocene provide unprecedented opportunities for ecologists and other scientists to discover new paradigms that shape our understanding of the ways that the world is changing. These paradigms will likely focus more strongly on interactions, feedbacks, thresholds, and model uncertainty than on steady-state dynamics and statistical uncertainty. We advocate a shift in ecology and other disciplines to a more proactive leadership role in defining problems and possibilities in a rapidly changing world rather than being relegated to a reactive role of trying to fix the problems after the horse has left the barn. This requires not only renewed commitment by ecologists (and other citizens to a more proactive ethic of environmental citizenship but also institutional changes in education, the scientific review and funding processes, and promotion and tenure processes to encourage and celebrate those who seek to shape trajectories toward greater ecosystem and social resilience and well-being.

  11. Proactively evaluating training effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fetterman, Harry E.

    2003-01-01

    A common model of the five phase Systematic Approach to Training (SAT) displays the fifth phase, evaluation, feeding back into the previous four phases: analysis, design, development, and implementation. Evaluating training effectiveness in PP and L's Nuclear Department is not simply the fifth phase of the SAT. PP and L has demonstrated a more effective methodology is realized when evaluation is built into each of the other four phases. At PP and L, evaluation is conducted formatively throughout the first four phases of the SAT process and summatively after implementation. (author)

  12. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  13. Risk analysis: opening the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

    1998-01-01

    This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

  14. Pro-Active Fall-Risk Management is Mandatory to Sustain in Hospital-Fall Prevention in Older Patients--Validation of the LUCAS Fall-Risk Screening in 2,337 Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, V S; Neumann, L; Golgert, S; von Renteln-Kruse, W

    2015-12-01

    Prevention of in-hospital falls contributes to improvement of patient safety. However, the identification of high-risk patients remains a challenge despite knowledge of fall-risk factors. Hence, objective was to prospectively validate the performance of the LUCAS (Longitudinal Urban Cohort Ageing Study) fall-risk screening, based on routine data (fall history, mobility, mental status) and applied by nurses. Observational study comparing two groups of patients who underwent different fall-risk screenings; the LUCAS screening (2010 - 2011) and the STRATIFY (St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool In Falling Elderly Inpatients) (2004 - 2006). Urban teaching hospital. Consecutively hospitalized patients (≥ 65 years old) were screened on admission; LUCAS n = 2,337, STRATIFY n = 4,735. The proportions of fallers were compared between the STRATIFY and the LUCAS time periods. The number of fallers expected was compared to that observed in the LUCAS time period. Standardized fall-incidence recording included case-note checks for unreported falls. Plausibility checks of fall-risk factors and logistic regression analysis for variable fall-risk factors were performed. The proportions of fallers during the two time periods were LUCAS n = 291/2,337 (12.5%) vs. STRATIFY n = 508/4,735 (10.7%). After adjustment for risk-factor prevalence, the proportion of fallers expected was 14.5% (334/2,337), the proportion observed was 12.5% (291/2,337) (p = 0.038). In-hospital fall prevention including systematic use of the LUCAS fall-risk screening reduced the proportion of fallers compared to that expected from the patients' fall-risk profile. Raw proportions of fallers are not suitable to evaluate fall prevention in hospital because of variable prevalence of patients' fall-risk factors over time. Continuous communication, education and training is needed to sustain in-hospital falls prevention.

  15. Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardung von Hardung, H.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

  16. Introduction of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

    2013-01-01

    An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

  17. Hydroproject risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented

  18. Employee Participation in Non-Mandatory Professional Development--The Role of Core Proactive Motivation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankey, Kim S.; Machin, M. Anthony

    2014-01-01

    With a focus on the self-initiated efforts of employees, this study examined a model of core proactive motivation processes for participation in non-mandatory professional development (PD) within a proactive motivation framework using the Self-Determination Theory perspective. A multi-group SEM analysis conducted across 439 academic and general…

  19. Proactive Interference in Human Predictive Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Castro, Leyre; Ortega, Nuria; Matute, Helena

    2002-01-01

    The impairment in responding to a secondly trained association because of the prior training of another (i.e., proactive interference) is a well-established effect in human and animal research, and it has been demonstrated in many paradigms. However, learning theories have been concerned with proactive interference only when the competing stimuli have been presented in compound at some moment of the training phase. In this experiment we investigated the possibility of proactive interference b...

  20. Failure mode and effect analysis: improving intensive care unit risk management processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Roohollah; Shafii, Milad; Rafiei, Sima; Abolhassani, Mohammad Sadegh; Salarikhah, Elaheh

    2017-04-18

    Purpose Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a practical tool to evaluate risks, discover failures in a proactive manner and propose corrective actions to reduce or eliminate potential risks. The purpose of this paper is to apply FMEA technique to examine the hazards associated with the process of service delivery in intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Yazd, Iran. Design/methodology/approach This was a before-after study conducted between March 2013 and December 2014. By forming a FMEA team, all potential hazards associated with ICU services - their frequency and severity - were identified. Then risk priority number was calculated for each activity as an indicator representing high priority areas that need special attention and resource allocation. Findings Eight failure modes with highest priority scores including endotracheal tube defect, wrong placement of endotracheal tube, EVD interface, aspiration failure during suctioning, chest tube failure, tissue injury and deep vein thrombosis were selected for improvement. Findings affirmed that improvement strategies were generally satisfying and significantly decreased total failures. Practical implications Application of FMEA in ICUs proved to be effective in proactively decreasing the risk of failures and corrected the control measures up to acceptable levels in all eight areas of function. Originality/value Using a prospective risk assessment approach, such as FMEA, could be beneficial in dealing with potential failures through proposing preventive actions in a proactive manner. The method could be used as a tool for healthcare continuous quality improvement so that the method identifies both systemic and human errors, and offers practical advice to deal effectively with them.

  1. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  2. ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

  3. Making things happen through challenging goals: leader proactivity, trust, and business-unit performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossley, Craig D; Cooper, Cecily D; Wernsing, Tara S

    2013-05-01

    Building on decades of research on the proactivity of individual performers, this study integrates research on goal setting and trust in leadership to examine manager proactivity and business unit sales performance in one of the largest sales organizations in the United States. Results of a moderated-mediation model suggest that proactive senior managers establish more challenging goals for their business units (N = 50), which in turn are associated with higher sales performance. We further found that employees' trust in the manager is a critical contingency variable that facilitates the relationship between challenging sales goals and subsequent sales performance. This research contributes to growing literatures on trust in leadership and proactivity by studying their joint effects at a district-unit level of analysis while identifying district managers' tendency to set challenging goals as a process variable that helps translate their proactivity into the collective performance of their units. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Common approach of risks analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

    1996-01-01

    Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

  5. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  6. Proactive Management of Aviation System Safety Risk

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Aviation safety systems have undergone dramatic changes over the past fifty years. If you take a look at the early technology in this area, you'll see that there was...

  7. Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aral, M. M

    2010-01-01

    ... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

  8. Recognising and referring children exposed to domestic abuse: a multi-professional, proactive systems-based evaluation using a modified Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, Laura; Armitage, Gerry; Taylor, Julie

    2017-03-01

    Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a prospective quality assurance methodology increasingly used in healthcare, which identifies potential vulnerabilities in complex, high-risk processes and generates remedial actions. We aimed, for the first time, to apply FMEA in a social care context to evaluate the process for recognising and referring children exposed to domestic abuse within one Midlands city safeguarding area in England. A multidisciplinary, multi-agency team of 10 front-line professionals undertook the FMEA, using a modified methodology, over seven group meetings. The FMEA included mapping out the process under evaluation to identify its component steps, identifying failure modes (potential errors) and possible causes for each step and generating corrective actions. In this article, we report the output from the FMEA, including illustrative examples of the failure modes and corrective actions generated. We also present an analysis of feedback from the FMEA team and provide future recommendations for the use of FMEA in appraising social care processes and practice. Although challenging, the FMEA was unequivocally valuable for team members and generated a significant number of corrective actions locally for the safeguarding board to consider in its response to children exposed to domestic abuse. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Proactive Management of the Equine Athlete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica K. Gee

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Across many equestrian disciplines the median competition career of a horse is relatively short. One of the major reasons for short career length is musculoskeletal injury and a consistent variable is the trainer effect. There are significant opportunities within equestrian sport for a holistic approach to horse health to attenuate musculoskeletal injury. Proactive integration of care by health professionals could provide a mechanism to attenuate injury risk and the trainer effect. However, the limited data available on current exercise regimens for sport horses restricts interpretation of how management and exercise volume could be modified to reduce injury risk. Early exercise in the juvenile horse (i.e., pre weaning has a positive effect on stimulating the musculoskeletal system and primes the horse for an athletic career. The early introduction to sport competition has also been identified to have a positive effect on career length. These data indicate that management systems reflecting the cursorial evolution of the horse may aid in attenuating loss from sport due to musculoskeletal injury.

  10. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  11. Proactive data mining with decision trees

    CERN Document Server

    Dahan, Haim; Rokach, Lior; Maimon, Oded

    2014-01-01

    This book explores a proactive and domain-driven method to classification tasks. This novel proactive approach to data mining not only induces a model for predicting or explaining a phenomenon, but also utilizes specific problem/domain knowledge to suggest specific actions to achieve optimal changes in the value of the target attribute. In particular, the authors suggest a specific implementation of the domain-driven proactive approach for classification trees. The book centers on the core idea of moving observations from one branch of the tree to another. It introduces a novel splitting crite

  12. ENTERPRISE PROACTIVITY AS ELEMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandra López Salazar

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The businessman rol must be based on stimulate a change and the development of organizations counting on abilities and features needed to achieve this. Analyze the vision and business proactivity as corporate culture variables, has a great importance for survival and competitiveness of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. This study aims to analyze the level of proactivity and vision that have 418 businessmen in the region of Celaya, and determine the relationship of these variables. Results show that there is a great aspiration of businessmen to achieve growth; however, their vision is not aligned with the level of proactivity that they use to manage their organizations.

  13. A proactive outreach intervention that decreases readmission after hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narula, Nisha; Kim, Bradford J; Davis, Catherine H; Dewhurst, Whitney L; Samp, Leigh A; Aloia, Thomas A

    2018-04-01

    After hepatectomy, 7%-19% of patients are readmitted within 30 days, accounting for substantial cost and poor patient experience. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of a proactive outreach intervention on readmissions. Consecutive patients undergoing hepatectomy by a single surgeon 2012-2016 were identified in a prospectively maintained database. In August 2013 a postoperative intervention was implemented; an advanced practice provider called each patient within 72 hours of discharge. Readmission rates were compared pre- and postintervention using standard statistics. Two hundred thirty-one patients met the inclusion criteria and major hepatectomy was performed in 45.5% of patients. Although the complication rate was similar (25.0% preintervention and 19.4% postintervention, P = .324), readmissions within 30 days of operation decreased from 14.5% pre- to 6.5% postintervention (P = .046). Approximately 30% of outreach interactions required outpatient intervention. Factors associated with readmission on univariate analysis included increased operative time (P = .007), major hepatectomy (P = .012), hemi or extended hepatectomy (P = .032), second stage operation (P = .031), bile leak (P = 0.022), and any complication/modified Accordion complication ≥ 3 within 30 days (P work created by the intervention is likely offset by decreased inpatient care needs and costs. Identification of high-risk populations and application of technology are likely to lead to further improvements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Piloting proactive marketing to recruit disadvantaged adults to a community-wide obesity prevention program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Blythe J; Eggins, Dianne; Phongsavan, Philayrath; Milat, Andrew J; Bauman, Adrian E; Wiggers, John

    2015-03-30

    Population-wide obesity prevention and treatment programs are fundamental to addressing the increasing overweight and obesity rates in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Innovative recruitment strategies, including proactive marketing strategies, are needed to ensure such programs have universal reach and target vulnerable populations. This study aimed to determine the success of proactive recruitment to Australia's Get Healthy Information and Coaching Service® (GHS) and to assess whether the recruitment strategy influenced participants' outcomes. Sociodemographic information was collected from all GHS participants who joined the service between February 2009 and August 2013, and anthropometric information regarding behavioural risk factors was collected from all GHS coaching participants at baseline and six months. Data were analysed according to the participants' referral source (self-referral and secondary referral versus proactive recruitment). Participants recruited through proactive marketing were more likely to be male, aged 50 years or older, have high school education, not be in paid employment and be from the lowest three quintiles of socioeconomic advantage. The risk factor profile of coaching participants recruited through proactive marketing did not vary significantly from those recruited via other mechanisms, although they were less likely to be obese and less likely to have a higher 'at risk' waist circumference measurement. Proactively recruited coaching participants reported significant improvements from baseline to six months (consistent with improvements made by participants recruited through other strategies), although they were significantly more likely to withdraw from coaching before they completed the six-month program.Proactive marketing facilitated use of an obesity prevention service; similar services may have greater reach if proactive marketing recruitment strategies are used. These strategies could be encouraged to assist

  15. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  16. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  17. Release From Proactive Interference with Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, Linda F.; And Others

    1973-01-01

    This demonstration of release from proactive interference with young children confirms the suggestion that the technique is appropriate for the study of developmental changes in the encoding of information. (Authors/CB)

  18. The value and feasibility of proactive recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fthenakis, V.M.; Moskowitz, P.D.

    1999-01-01

    Photovoltaics (PV) technology has definite environmental advantages over competing electricity generation technologies, and so far these advantages have driven market penetration. The PV industry follows a pro-active approach to preserve its safe and environmentally friendly nature. Industrial ecology considerations raise the issue of what to do with the PV modules at the end of their useful life. One option is recycling. This paper discusses the value of proactive recycling and compares several alternatives. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  19. Visual Working Memory Capacity and Proactive Interference

    OpenAIRE

    Hartshorne, Joshua

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Visual working memory capacity is extremely limited and appears to be relatively immune to practice effects or the use of explicit strategies. The recent discovery that visual working memory tasks, like verbal working memory tasks, are subject to proactive interference, coupled with the fact that typical visual working memory tasks are particularly conducive to proactive interference, suggests that visual working memory capacity may be systematically under-estimated. METHODOLOGY/P...

  20. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  1. On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

    2012-11-01

    Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-06-01

    The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

  3. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  4. Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

    1997-07-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

  5. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

  6. A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

  7. Proactive Student Engagement with Fitness to Practise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Lo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fitness to practise (FTP is fundamental to health professional education and health service delivery, impacting on both practitioner and client wellbeing. Literature exploring FTP support policies primarily identifies retrospective student support and management. This study describes student perceptions of an innovative FTP policy which supports students and staff to proactively identify FTP management strategies prior to entering the clinical environment. Forty-nine final year physiotherapy students were surveyed regarding their perceptions of self-declaring FTP. Ordinal data from Likert scales were reported using descriptive statistics. Thematic analysis was undertaken for open text responses. The response rate was 88%. Forty-two percent of students stated that they had experienced FTP concerns during the course. Concerns included physical and mental impairment and clinical competence issues. The majority of students (80% indicated that they were “comfortable” or “very comfortable” in self-declaring FTP issues. Confidentiality, positive relationships with staff and a supportive environment enhanced likelihood of declaration. Eight students (19% met with university staff to develop management strategies and all rated these meetings as “helpful” or “very helpful.” Students had positive perceptions of self-declaring their FTP to enable early development of management strategies. This strategy successfully navigates sensitive ethicolegal issues, empowering students to take responsibility for their own FTP.

  8. Psychometric properties of the Chinese translation of the proactive personality scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Le; Shi, Junqi

    2009-08-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Chinese translation of the Proactive Personality Scale. Four samples were surveyed. In Sample 1 and Sample 2, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis results confirmed the unidimensional structure of the 10-item abbreviated version of the scale. In Sample 2, Proactive Personality scores were found to be positively correlated with the personality factors of Extraversion, Conscientiousness, Openness, and Agreeableness, and negatively correlated with Neuroticism. In Sample 3, Proactive Personality was found to be positively related to self-efficacy and political skill. In Sample 4, demographics controlled, Proactive Personality explained significant incremental variance in the employees' self-rated career satisfaction and job performance as rated by immediate supervisors.

  9. Understanding the relationship between proactive and reactive aggression, and cyberbullying across United States and Singapore adolescent samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Rebecca P; Huan, Vivien S; Florell, Dan

    2014-01-01

    This study examined cyberbullying among adolescents across United States and Singapore samples. Specifically, the purpose of the investigation was to study the differential associations between proactive and reactive aggression, and cyberbullying across two cultures. A total of 425 adolescents from the United States (M age = 13 years) and a total of 332 adolescents from Singapore (M age = 14.2 years) participated in the study. Results of the moderator analyses suggested that nationality was not a moderator of the relationship between proactive aggression and cyberbullying, and between reactive aggression and cyberbullying. As expected, findings showed proactive aggression to be positively associated with cyberbullying, after controlling for reactive aggression, across both samples. Likewise, as hypothesized, reactive aggression and cyberbullying was not found to be significant after controlling for proactive aggression across both samples. Implications of these findings were discussed: (a) Proactive aggression is a possible risk factor for both bullying and cyberbullying; (b) proactive and reactive aggression could be argued to be distinct as they have different correlates-only proactive aggression contributed to cyberbullying after controlling for reactive aggression; (c) this research extends previous work and contributes toward cross-cultural work using similar and comparable measures across different samples; and (d) prevention and intervention programs targeted at proactive aggressive adolescents could adopt a two-pronged approach by changing mind sets, and by understanding and adopting a set of rules for Internet etiquette.

  10. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  11. Neurogenesis-mediated forgetting minimizes proactive interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Jonathan R; Silva Mera, Rudy; Köhler, Stefan; Josselyn, Sheena A; Frankland, Paul W

    2016-02-26

    Established memories may interfere with the encoding of new memories, particularly when existing and new memories overlap in content. By manipulating levels of hippocampal neurogenesis, here we show that neurogenesis regulates this form of proactive interference. Increasing hippocampal neurogenesis weakens existing memories and, in doing so, facilitates the encoding of new, conflicting (but not non-conflicting) information in mice. Conversely, decreasing neurogenesis stabilizes existing memories, and impedes the encoding of new, conflicting information. These results suggest that reduced proactive interference is an adaptive benefit of neurogenesis-induced forgetting.

  12. Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

  13. The Influence of Neurocognitive Functioning on Proactive Coping Behaviors in Adults With HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cody, Shameka L; Fazeli, Pariya L; D Moneyham, Linda; Vance, David E

    2016-10-01

    Although many can appreciate the life-sustaining benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy, some adults with HIV continue to have difficulty managing physical, neurocognitive, and everyday stressors. Fortunately, some adults with HIV are able to use accumulated resources (e.g., social networks) to help them engage in proactive coping behaviors such as planning and problem solving. Others, however, manage their stressors by engaging in avoidant coping, isolating themselves, or ruminating about the negative aspects of their situation. Perhaps, the capacity to engage in proactive coping may be influenced by damage to the frontal-striatal-thalamo circuitry, a region of the brain responsible for executive functioning and often compromised in adults with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders. This study examined potential neurocognitive influences on proactive coping behaviors in adults with HIV (N = 98). Participants were administered a series of neurocognitive and psychosocial measures to determine if neurocognitive functioning and other factors that have been associated with coping in other populations, such as spirituality/religiosity, influenced proactive coping behaviors. Multiple regression analysis revealed that spirituality/religiosity (p = .002), rather than neurocognitive functioning (Useful Field of View, p = .277; Trails A, p = .701; Trails B, p = .365; Wechsler Memory Scale-III Digit Span, p = .864), was a significant predictor of proactive coping. Interventions to address spirituality/religiosity needs of adults with HIV may possibly facilitate proactive coping behaviors and improve mood, both of which are important for healthy neurocognitive functioning.

  14. Proactive Corporate Environmental Responsibility and Financial Performance: Evidence from Chinese Energy Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Jiang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available With increasing concerns about environmental issues and the advancement of China’s “going global” strategy, a new issue-proactive corporate social responsibility has emerged. Proactive corporate environmental responsibility refers to business actions that go beyond regulatory requirements for supporting sustainable environmental development. This study examines the role of proactive corporate environmental responsibility on corporate financial performance in the Chinese energy industry by the multi-variables regression analysis of panel data. Using data of 264 firm-year observations from 2009–2014 in the energy industry, the results showed that Proactive corporate environmental responsibility has a positive effect on corporate financial performance passing the endogeneity test. The results also demonstrate that private ownership has stronger promotion on the relationship between proactive corporate environmental responsibility and corporate financial performance. This study helps to increase the body of knowledge about proactive corporate environmental responsibility of the emerging economy, provides insights into the corporate environmental responsibility practice, and government environmental regulation and policy.

  15. Proactive and Retroactive Effects of Negative Suggestion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Alan S.; Brown, Christine M.; Mosbacher, Joy L.; Dryden, W. Erich

    2006-01-01

    The negative effects of false information presented either prior to (proactive interference; PI) or following (retroactive interference; RI) true information was examined with word definitions (Experiment 1) and trivia facts (Experiment 2). Participants were explicitly aware of which information was true and false when shown, and true-false…

  16. Using Proactive Law for Competitive Advantage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Haapio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the role of law as a positive force within companies through parallel developments in Europe and the United States and a Colombian case study that illustrates how contract simplification and visualization can help bring user-friendly contracts and Proactive Law to practice.

  17. A Proactive Approach to Technological Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Katherine

    2005-01-01

    With the increasing complexity of technology, it is important for each citizen to be able to make informed decisions about the technology that he or she uses. This article suggests that a proactive approach to advocating technological literacy is important in changing the greater public's misconceptions of what it means to be technologically…

  18. Coping Proactively with Middle Years Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Douglas R.

    1994-01-01

    To deal proactively with middle-years students, educators must consider four areas: development of an effective home-school team; student counseling; classroom management and discipline; and instructional strategies focused on students' personal growth and academic achievement. Teachers should use diverse approaches and materials, increase student…

  19. Young Children Proactively Remedy Unnoticed Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warneken, Felix

    2013-01-01

    Human adults will sometimes help without being asked to help, including in situations in which the helpee is oblivious to the problem and thus provides no communicative or behavioral cues that intervention is necessary. Some theoretical models argue that these acts of "proactive helping" are an important and possibly human-specific form of…

  20. Preserved Proactive Interference in Autism Spectrum Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmo, Joana C.; Duarte, Elsa; Pinho, Sandra; Filipe, Carlos N.; Marques, J. Frederico

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we aimed to evaluate further the functioning and structuring of the semantic system in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We analyzed the performance of 19 high-functioning young adults with ASD and a group of 20 age-, verbal IQ- and education-matched individuals with the Proactive Interference (PI) Paradigm to evaluate semantic…

  1. Neural mechanisms of proactive interference-resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nee, Derek Evan; Jonides, John; Berman, Marc G

    2007-12-01

    The ability to mitigate interference from information that was previously relevant, but is no longer relevant, is central to successful cognition. Several studies have implicated left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) as a region tied to this ability, but it is unclear whether this result generalizes across different tasks. In addition, it has been suggested that left anterior prefrontal cortex (APFC) also plays a role in proactive interference-resolution although support for this claim has been limited. The present study used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the role of these regions in resolving proactive-interference across two different tasks performed on the same subjects. Results indicate that both left VLPFC and left APFC are involved in the resolution of proactive interference across tasks. However, different functional networks related to each region suggest dissociable roles for the two regions. Additionally, regions of the posterior cingulate gyrus demonstrated unique involvement in facilitation when short- and long-term memory converged. This pattern of results serves to further specify models of proactive interference-resolution.

  2. Evaluating Mobile Proactive Context-Aware Retrieval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menegon, Davide; Mizzaro, Stefano; Nazzi, Elena

    We present the evaluation of a novel application for Web content perusal by means of context-aware mobile devices that proactively query an external search engine. To this aim, we develop a TREC-like benchmark and we use it to evaluate different strategies for automatic query construction...

  3. Plagiarism: Moving from Punitive to Proactive Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Sarah Elaine; Guglielmin, Melanie; Otoo, Benedict Kojo

    2017-01-01

    Plagiarism continues to be an issue in postsecondary contexts. This paper discusses how educators can take a proactive stance to prevent plagiarism and cultivate students' sense of honour and academic integrity, rather than focusing on punitive consequences after plagiarism has already occurred. Strategies include assessment design, formative…

  4. [A systemic risk analysis of hospital management processes by medical employees--an effective basis for improving patient safety].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobottka, Stephan B; Eberlein-Gonska, Maria; Schackert, Gabriele; Töpfer, Armin

    2009-01-01

    Due to the knowledge gap that exists between patients and health care staff the quality of medical treatment usually cannot be assessed securely by patients. For an optimization of safety in treatment-related processes of medical care, the medical staff needs to be actively involved in preventive and proactive quality management. Using voluntary, confidential and non-punitive systematic employee surveys, vulnerable topics and areas in patient care revealing preventable risks can be identified at an early stage. Preventive measures to continuously optimize treatment quality can be defined by creating a risk portfolio and a priority list of vulnerable topics. Whereas critical incident reporting systems are suitable for continuous risk assessment by detecting safety-relevant single events, employee surveys permit to conduct a systematic risk analysis of all treatment-related processes of patient care at any given point in time.

  5. Risk analysis and safety rationale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, G.

    1989-01-01

    Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs

  6. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

  7. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  8. PRA and Risk Informed Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.

    2006-01-01

    The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs

  9. Use of FMEA analysis to reduce risk of errors in prescribing and administering drugs in paediatric wards: a quality improvement report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lago, Paola; Bizzarri, Giancarlo; Scalzotto, Francesca; Parpaiola, Antonella; Amigoni, Angela; Putoto, Giovanni; Perilongo, Giorgio

    2012-01-01

    Administering medication to hospitalised infants and children is a complex process at high risk of error. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive tool used to analyse risks, identify failures before they happen and prioritise remedial measures. To examine the hazards associated with the process of drug delivery to children, we performed a proactive risk-assessment analysis. Five multidisciplinary teams, representing different divisions of the paediatric department at Padua University Hospital, were trained to analyse the drug-delivery process, to identify possible causes of failures and their potential effects, to calculate a risk priority number (RPN) for each failure and plan changes in practices. To identify higher-priority potential failure modes as defined by RPNs and planning changes in clinical practice to reduce the risk of patients harm and improve safety in the process of medication use in children. In all, 37 higher-priority potential failure modes and 71 associated causes and effects were identified. The highest RPNs related (>48) mainly to errors in calculating drug doses and concentrations. Many of these failure modes were found in all the five units, suggesting the presence of common targets for improvement, particularly in enhancing the safety of prescription and preparation of endovenous drugs. The introductions of new activities in the revised process of administering drugs allowed reducing the high-risk failure modes of 60%. FMEA is an effective proactive risk-assessment tool useful to aid multidisciplinary groups in understanding a process care and identifying errors that may occur, prioritising remedial interventions and possibly enhancing the safety of drug delivery in children.

  10. Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

    2017-08-01

    With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

    2014-06-01

    This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Safety performance evaluation using proactive indicators in a selected industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazl Barkhordari

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives: Quality and effectiveness of safety systems are critical factors in achieving their goals. This study was aimed to represent a method for performance evaluation of safety systems by proactive indicators using different updated models in the field of safety which will be tested in a selected industry. Methods: This study is a cross-sectional study. Proactive indicators used in this study were: Unsafe acts rate, Safety Climate, Accident Proneness, and Near-miss incident rate. The number of in 1473 safety climate questionnaires and 543 Accident Proneness questionnaires was completed. Results: The minimum and maximum safety climate score were 56.88 and 58.2, respectively, and the minimum and maximum scores of Accident Proneness were 98.2 and 140.7, respectively. The maximum number of Near-miss incident rate were 408 and the minimum of that was 196. The maximum number of unsafe acts rate was 43.8 percent and the minimum of that was 27.2 percent. In nine dimensions of Safety climate the eighth dimension (personal perception of risk with the score of 4.07 has the lowest score and the fourth (laws and safety regulations dimension with 8.05 has the highest score. According to expert opinions, the most important indicator in the assessment of safety performance was unsafe acts rate, while near-miss incident rate was the least important one. Conclusion: The results of this survey reveal that using proactive (Prospective indicators could be an appropriate method in organizations safety performance evaluation.

  13. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

  14. Marketing-mix and technology: evolution and proactive development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oberemok Svetlana

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to survive the marketing subjects have to be able to adapt their business-processes to the changing environmental conditions. Those who will correctly predict the direction of the economic vector and will apply adequate and proactive tools and marketing technologies will achieve the greatest success. The article presents the results of the analysis of the leading specialists in the field of marketing and management ideas concerning the transformation of the existing tools and marketing technologies and appearing of the new ones.

  15. A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

  16. Prospective approaches for risk analysis in modern radiotherapy: the Italian experience and the contribution of medical physicists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Begnozzi, L.; Cantone, M.C.; Veronese, I.; Longobardi, B.

    2014-01-01

    In the last few years there has been significant development of radiation therapy (RT) equipment with advanced imaging and delivery techniques, as well as treatment planning systems. From this perspective, proactive approaches for risk assessment were identified as a powerful tool in modern radiation oncology. A multidisciplinary working group (WG) has been established in the framework of the Italian association for medical physics (AIFM) to promote the use of prospective approaches in the radiotherapy scientific community. This paper describes the main actions carried out by the WG in order to collect information about the engagement of Italian medical physicists in the risk management process, in reporting possible incidents in RT and in the procedures of collecting and analysing near misses. In particular, the main scope of the study was to evaluate the actual level of experience in use of proactive risk analysis tools in modern RT by medical physicists. Finally, the measures implemented by the WG in order to promote the use of such approaches, and consequently to contribute to enhancing safety and radiation protection culture in radiation oncology are described. (authors)

  17. Reliability and validity of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

  18. Improving Student Retention through Evidence Based Proactive Systems at the Open University (UK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Graham; Regan, Peter; Simpson, Ormond

    2007-01-01

    The Open University has been undertaking an extended initiative to improve student retention through enhanced support for at-risk students. This initiative has evolved through a series of stages from ad hoc small scale local interventions relying largely on tutors and student self-referral, to an institution-wide pro-active system implemented by…

  19. Reduced autobiographical memory specificity relates to weak resistance to proactive interference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smets, Jorien; Wessel, Ineke; Raes, Filip

    Background and objectives: Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (rAMS), experiencing intrusive memories, and rumination appear to be risk factors for depression and depressive relapse. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether a weak resistance to proactive interference (PI)

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.

    1988-01-01

    Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

  1. Bias in risk-benefit analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazur, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

  2. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

  3. Rating Methods for Proactive Recommendation on Smartwatches

    OpenAIRE

    Janosch Maier, Wolfgang Wörndl

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes possible interaction methods for using a recommender system on a smartwatch. As prerequisite, we describe interaction patterns currently used by Android Wear applications. Based on a prototype implementation the interaction methods action buttons, two button card and swipes are compared against each other. In a user study, 31 participating students were asked to rate restaurant recommendations offered in the setting of a context-aware, proactive recommender system. For eac...

  4. Creative Proactive-Concluding Theory of Motivating

    OpenAIRE

    Blašková, Martina

    2010-01-01

    The article deals with necessity to change the understanding of human resource philosophy to the new philosophy: philosophy of human potential. In these intentions, it is very important to motivate human potential in the organisations. But, in the area of motivating, situation within the organisations isn't sufficient. Thereto the article gives an introductive presentation of a new theory of motivating: creative proactive-concluding theory of motivating. The theory leads the managers to utili...

  5. Proactive Recommender Systems in Automotive Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Bader, Roland

    2013-01-01

    This thesis investigates proactive recommender systems to avoid information overload inside a car. The proposed system delivers context-adaptive items in the right situation. Explicit explanations are used to make the system comprehensible because it works without user request. To show the applicability of our system, we investigate the acceptance of the drivers. The results show that the drivers tend to accept such a system. Zur Vermeidung von Informationsüberflutung im Fahrzeug werden in...

  6. Proactive interference effects on sentence production

    OpenAIRE

    FERREIRA, VICTOR S.; FIRATO, CARLA E.

    2002-01-01

    Proactive interference refers to recall difficulties caused by prior similar memory-related processing. Information-processing approaches to sentence production predict that retrievability affects sentence form: Speakers may word sentences so that material that is difficult to retrieve is spoken later. In this experiment, speakers produced sentence structures that could include an optional that, thereby delaying the mention of a subsequent noun phrase. This subsequent noun phrase was either (...

  7. Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

    1989-01-01

    A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

  8. Proactive coping and gambling disorder among young men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleczka, Pawel; Braun, Barbara; Grüne, Bettina; Bühringer, Gerhard; Kraus, Ludwig

    2016-12-01

    Objectives Male sex, young age, and frequent gambling are considered as risk factors for gambling disorder (GD) and stress might be one of the triggers of gambling behavior among problem gamblers. Conversely, well-developed coping with stress might counteract gambling problems. The Proactive Coping Theory provides a promising approach for the further development of preventive and treatment measures. The objective of the study was to investigate different facets of proactive coping (PC) in young male gamblers. Methods Young men from Bavaria were recruited via the Munich citizens' registry (n = 2,588) and Facebook invitations (n = 105). In total, 173 out of 398 individuals were positively screened for frequent gambling and/or signs of related problems and completed the baseline questionnaire of the Munich Leisure-time Study. Factors investigated include gambling problems, PC, impulsiveness, social support, and psychological distress. Results Gambling problems were associated with lower levels of preventive coping as well as of adaptive reaction delay. The associations were also significant when controlled for impulsiveness and general psychological distress. Preventive coping moderated the association between social support and gambling problems. Discussion and conclusions Young men with gambling problems less frequently prevent the occurrence of stressors and more often react hasty when these occur. While the investigated group reported good social support, this factor was negatively associated with GD only among individuals with good preventive coping. Preventive coping poses a useful construct for selective prevention and treatment as it can be modified in professional interventions.

  9. Psychophysiology of proactive and reactive relational aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray-Close, Dianna; Holterman, Leigh Ann; Breslend, Nicole L; Sullivan, Alexandra

    2017-12-01

    This study investigated the joint effects of parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous system reactivity to social and non-social stressors on proactive (i.e., goal-directed, unemotional) and reactive (i.e., emotional, impulsive) functions of relational aggression. Two hundred and forty-seven (M age =18.77years) participants completed a series of stressor tasks while their sympathetic arousal (i.e., skin conductance) and parasympathetic arousal (i.e., respiratory sinus arrhythmia) were assessed. Participants also provided self-reports of their aggressive behavior. In the standardized social stressor only, physiological reactivity was related to aggression, such that respiratory sinus arrhythmia augmentation predicted proactive relational aggression whereas heightened skin conductance reactivity predicted reactive relational aggression. Finally, in the context of low skin conductance reactivity, respiratory sinus arrhythmia augmentation was related to heightened proactive and reactive aggression, whereas respiratory sinus arrhythmia withdrawal was protective. Results suggest that the benefits hypothesized to accompany respiratory sinus arrhythmia withdrawal may only occur among individuals with low "fight or flight" stress responses. Findings extend research on the physiological indicators of aggression to relational aggression, and highlight the importance of assessing functions of aggression, as well as physiological reactivity to multiple stressors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Visual working memory capacity and proactive interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartshorne, Joshua K

    2008-07-23

    Visual working memory capacity is extremely limited and appears to be relatively immune to practice effects or the use of explicit strategies. The recent discovery that visual working memory tasks, like verbal working memory tasks, are subject to proactive interference, coupled with the fact that typical visual working memory tasks are particularly conducive to proactive interference, suggests that visual working memory capacity may be systematically under-estimated. Working memory capacity was probed behaviorally in adult humans both in laboratory settings and via the Internet. Several experiments show that although the effect of proactive interference on visual working memory is significant and can last over several trials, it only changes the capacity estimate by about 15%. This study further confirms the sharp limitations on visual working memory capacity, both in absolute terms and relative to verbal working memory. It is suggested that future research take these limitations into account in understanding differences across a variety of tasks between human adults, prelinguistic infants and nonlinguistic animals.

  11. Visual working memory capacity and proactive interference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua K Hartshorne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visual working memory capacity is extremely limited and appears to be relatively immune to practice effects or the use of explicit strategies. The recent discovery that visual working memory tasks, like verbal working memory tasks, are subject to proactive interference, coupled with the fact that typical visual working memory tasks are particularly conducive to proactive interference, suggests that visual working memory capacity may be systematically under-estimated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Working memory capacity was probed behaviorally in adult humans both in laboratory settings and via the Internet. Several experiments show that although the effect of proactive interference on visual working memory is significant and can last over several trials, it only changes the capacity estimate by about 15%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study further confirms the sharp limitations on visual working memory capacity, both in absolute terms and relative to verbal working memory. It is suggested that future research take these limitations into account in understanding differences across a variety of tasks between human adults, prelinguistic infants and nonlinguistic animals.

  12. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  13. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  14. Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theofanous, T.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

  15. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  16. Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koelzer, W.

    1983-01-01

    The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

  17. Enhanced conditioned eyeblink response acquisition and proactive interference in anxiety vulnerable individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacqueline L Holloway

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In classical conditioning, proactive interference may arise from experience with the conditioned stimulus (CS, the unconditional stimulus (US, or both, prior to their paired presentations. Interest in the application of proactive interference has extended to clinical populations as either a risk factor for disorders or as a secondary sign. Although the current literature is dense with comparisons of stimulus pre-exposure effects in animals, such comparisons are lacking in human subjects. As such, interpretation of proactive interference over studies as well as its generalization and utility in clinical research is limited. The present study was designed to assess eyeblink response acquisition after equal numbers of CS, US, and explicitly unpaired CS and US pre-exposures, as well as to evaluate how anxiety vulnerability might modulate proactive interference. In the current study, anxiety vulnerability was assessed using the State/Trait Anxiety Inventories as well as the adult and retrospective measures of behavioural inhibition (AMBI and RMBI, respectively. Participants were exposed to 1 of 4 possible pre-exposure contingencies: 30 CS, 30 US, 30 CS and 30 US explicitly unpaired pre-exposures, or context pre-exposure, immediately prior to standard delay training. Robust proactive interference was evident in all pre-exposure groups relative to context pre-exposure, independent of anxiety classification, with CR acquisition attenuated at similar rates. In addition, trait anxious individuals were found to have enhanced overall acquisition as well as greater proactive interference relative to non-vulnerable individuals. The findings suggest that anxiety vulnerable individuals learn implicit associations faster, an effect which persists after the introduction of new stimulus contingencies. This effect is not due to enhanced sensitivity to the US. Such differences would have implications for the development of anxiety psychopathology within a learning

  18. Enhanced conditioned eyeblink response acquisition and proactive interference in anxiety vulnerable individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Jacqueline L; Trivedi, Payal; Myers, Catherine E; Servatius, Richard J

    2012-01-01

    In classical conditioning, proactive interference may arise from experience with the conditioned stimulus (CS), the unconditional stimulus (US), or both, prior to their paired presentations. Interest in the application of proactive interference has extended to clinical populations as either a risk factor for disorders or as a secondary sign. Although the current literature is dense with comparisons of stimulus pre-exposure effects in animals, such comparisons are lacking in human subjects. As such, interpretation of proactive interference over studies as well as its generalization and utility in clinical research is limited. The present study was designed to assess eyeblink response acquisition after equal numbers of CS, US, and explicitly unpaired CS and US pre-exposures, as well as to evaluate how anxiety vulnerability might modulate proactive interference. In the current study, anxiety vulnerability was assessed using the State/Trait Anxiety Inventories as well as the adult and retrospective measures of behavioral inhibition (AMBI and RMBI, respectively). Participants were exposed to 1 of 4 possible pre-exposure contingencies: 30 CS, 30 US, 30 CS, and 30 US explicitly unpaired pre-exposures, or Context pre-exposure, immediately prior to standard delay training. Robust proactive interference was evident in all pre-exposure groups relative to Context pre-exposure, independent of anxiety classification, with CR acquisition attenuated at similar rates. In addition, trait anxious individuals were found to have enhanced overall acquisition as well as greater proactive interference relative to non-vulnerable individuals. The findings suggest that anxiety vulnerable individuals learn implicit associations faster, an effect which persists after the introduction of new stimulus contingencies. This effect is not due to enhanced sensitivity to the US. Such differences would have implications for the development of anxiety psychopathology within a learning framework.

  19. PROACTIVE APPROACH TO THE INCIDENT AND PROBLEM MANAGEMENT IN COMMUNICATION NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vjeran Strahonja

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Proactive approach to communication network maintenance has the capability of enhancing the integrity and reliability of communication networks, as well as of reducing maintenance costs and overall number of incidents. This paper presents approaches to problem and incident prevention with the help of root-cause analysis, aligning that with the goal to foresee software performance. Implementation of proactive approach requires recognition of enterprise's current level of maintenance better insights into available approaches and tools, as well as their comparison, interoperability, integration and further development. The approach we are proposing and elaborating in this paper lies on the construction of a metamodel of the problem management of information technology, particularly the proactive problem management. The metamodel is derived from the original ITIL specification and presented in an object-oriented fashion by using structure (class diagrams conform to UML notation. Based on current research, appropriate metrics based on the concept of Key Performance Indicators is suggested.

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmalz, F.

    1991-01-01

    In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

  1. LINKING ADMINISTRATORS ROLES IN CAREER PROGRAMS TO PROACTIVE BEHAVIOR AS A DETERMINANT OF EMPLOYEES PROMOTION OPPORTUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azman Ismail

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between administrators roles in career programs, proactive behavior and employees promotion opportunities. Self-administered questionnaires were collected from employees who work in an established private oil and gas firm in West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The outcomes of SmartPLS path model analysis demonstrate that the ability of administrators to plan and managecareer programs have strongly invoked employees proactive behavior. As a result, this situation may lead to an enhance employees promotion opportunities in the organizational sample. Further, this study offers discussion, implications and conclusion.

  2. Neural correlates of proactive and reactive aggression in adolescent twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yaling; Joshi, Shantanu H; Jahanshad, Neda; Thompson, Paul M; Baker, Laura A

    2017-05-01

    Verbal and physical aggression begin early in life and steadily decline thereafter in normal development. As a result, elevated aggressive behavior in adolescence may signal atypical development and greater vulnerability for negative mental and health outcomes. Converging evidence suggests that brain disturbances in regions involved in impulse control, emotional regulation, and sensation seeking may contribute to heightened aggression. However, little is known regarding the neural mechanisms underlying subtypes of aggression (i.e., proactive and reactive aggression) and whether they differ between males and females. Using a sample of 106 14-year-old adolescent twins, this study found that striatal enlargement was associated with both proactive and reactive aggression. We also found that volumetric alterations in several frontal regions including smaller middle frontal and larger orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with higher levels of aggression in adolescent twins. In addition, cortical thickness analysis showed that thickness alterations in many overlapping regions including middle frontal, superior frontal, and anterior cingulate cortex and temporal regions were associated with aggression in adolescent twins. Results support the involvement of fronto-limbic-striatal circuit in the etiology of aggression during adolescence. Aggr. Behav. 43:230-240, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-10-01

    This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

  4. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  5. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  6. The relationship between self-reported oral health, self-regulation, proactive coping, procrastination and proactive attitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrescu, A L; Dogaru, B C; Dogaru, C D; Manolescu, B

    2011-06-01

    This cross-sectional study investigated the relationship between self-regulation, proactive coping, procrastination and proactive attitude, perceived oral health and self-reported oral-health behaviours. The study sample consisted of 198 first year medical students. The questionnaire included information about socio-demographic factors, behavioural variables, self-reported oral health status, proactive coping (proactive coping subscale of the Proactive Coping Inventory), procrastination (Procrastination Scale) and proactive attitude (Proactive Attitude Scale). Significant differences were found on self-regulation, proactive coping, procrastination and proactive attitude scales between participants who rated their gingival condition as very good/excellent and those who evaluated it as being poor, very poor or normal (p procrastination level among individuals who never visit their dentist and those who visit their dentist for check-up or for tooth cleaning and scaling (p = 0.001) or when treatment is needed or when in pain (p procrastination and proactive coping are important determinants of perceived oral health and self-reported oral-health behaviours.

  7. Proactiveness in entrepreneurial software firms: the executives' voice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Pierre Boissin

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches proactiveness in firms, considered to be one of the dimensions of the entrepreneurial orientation. Its goal is to introduce the results of an exploratory and qualitative study, which aimed to characterize the proactiveness in entrepreneurial software firms. The theory resumes the concepts of entrepreneurial firms, entrepreneurial orientation and proactiveness. The data gathering was accomplished through deeper interviews with executives from 13 software firms that stand out in terms of entrepreneurship in Rio Grande do Sul state. The results of the study demonstrate that firms are proactive and show a characterization regarding this behavior, starting from the conceptual base adopted in the present study. Among the proactiveness elements in the researched organizations, the onesrelated to environment monitoring and opportunities quest are highlighted. The study also consoliding a components’ set of proactiveness based on the theory and organizational practice reported by executives.

  8. Iterative Contracts as Proactive Law Instruments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henschel, René Franz

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to analyse the use of proactive law in contracts illustrated by the use of a particular type of contract within the IT industry, the so-called iterative contract. This type of contract has its root in a special software development process called iterative and incre...... the potential to create more business success. However, empirical research still needs to be done in order to confirm that these types of contracts are better at securing business success than traditional contract forms....

  9. WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

  10. BUILDUP OF PROACTIVE INTERFERENCE IN JAPANESE KANJI LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    FUJITA, Tadashi

    1995-01-01

    The discriminative assumption on buildup of proactive interference in short-term memory predicts that when intertrial similarity of items is high, the proactive interference is built up while interlist similarity of items is low, the proactive interference is not built up. To test the discriminative assumption in Japanese Kanji learning, intertrial similarity was changed by the acoustic, the radical (as one of the figurative properties), and the radical plus semantic properties in Kanji. For ...

  11. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  12. Development of the Children's Scale of Hostility and Aggression: Reactive/Proactive (C-SHARP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Cristan A.; Aman, Michael G.

    2009-01-01

    Whereas some scales exist for assessing aggression in typically developing children, they do not give a detailed analysis, and none is available for populations with developmental disabilities (DD). Parents of 365 children with DD completed the Children's Scale of Hostility and Aggression: Reactive/Proactive (C-SHARP), which surveys the severity…

  13. When Does a Good Working Memory Counteract Proactive Interference? Surprising Evidence from a Probe Recognition Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nelson; Saults, J. Scott

    2013-01-01

    It is often proposed that individuals with high working memory span overcome proactive interference (PI) from previous trials, saving working memory for task-relevant items. We examined this hypothesis in word-list probe recognition. We found no difference in PI related to span. Instead, ex-Gaussian analysis of reaction time showed speed…

  14. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

  15. Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazmer, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

  16. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  17. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  18. Burnout, Depression and Proactive Coping in Underground Coal Miners in Serbia - Pilot Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manić Saška

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Mining is unsurprisingly considered a high-risk occupation because it involves continuous hard labour under highly demanding and stressful conditions. Many of these work stressors can impair individuals’ well-being in both a physiological and psychological sense. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of burnout and depressive symptoms and to evaluate aspects of proactive coping among underground coal miners in Serbia. The study involved 46 male underground coal miners. Burnout was measured with the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory, depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, and level of proactive coping was measured with the Proactive Coping Inventory. The results showed a low level of burnout syndrome among the underground coal miners (12.46±4.879. Depression was slightly above the minimum (1.2±2.094, and the majority of the participants had no symptoms of depression (93.5%. Overall, the underground coal miners’ ability to proactively cope with work stress was very good (42.17±6.567. This is in contrast to the findings of the few previous international studies and is a good basis for further research using a larger sample in Serbia.

  19. FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SKILLS FOR PROACTIVE DRIVING LICENCE (ACCORDING TO INSTRUCTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatoeli Ducheva

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the system "man - environment - motor vehicle", the driver and his training are the main factors to overcome the negative trends of increasing the number of victims and injured in traffic accidents. The proactivity of the driver is associated with high levels of global purpose of drivers' training - with the strategic level, which includes personal characteristics, ambitions, values and choices of behaviour models. In the presented report we analyze the results of a survey conducted during the courses of periodic training of instructors from around the country in which were switched on the question for ranking the elements of the proactive driving according to the experience and perception of the trainers. Were analyzed the results obtained from 403 respondents from different size and geography settlements. We assume that all eleven components that we included and their arrangement in order of importance reflect the mind-set and attitudes of learners to proactive driving and correct actions which ensure personal and safety of other participants are manifestations of tolerance. We can conclude that at the forefront of arranging of the components of proactive driving, the respondents emphasize on those, that increase the traffic safety (manoeuvre planning, forecasting, but underestimate the knowledge of prior knowledge of the risk factors that increases the probability of road accidents.

  20. Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

    2015-01-01

    Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

  3. The watchdog role of risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

    1983-01-01

    The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Proactive Interference in Short-Term Recognition and Recall Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Richard F.; Petrusic, William M.

    1972-01-01

    Purpose of study was to (a) compare the rate of increase of proactive interference over the first few trials under recall and recognition memory test conditions, (2) determine the effects of two types of distractors on short-term recognition, and (3) test memory after proactive interference had reached a stable level under each of three test…

  5. Proactive and Preventive Coping in Adjustment to College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Yiqun; Hu, Yueqin; Zhang, Yiwen

    2010-01-01

    The current study compared the relative importance of proactive coping and preventive coping in the adjustment to university life among 403 freshmen at a Chinese university and evaluated the function of proactive coping in the stress process. Participants completed the Future-Oriented Coping Inventory (Gan, Yang, Zhou, & Zhang, 2007), the…

  6. The summarize of the technique about proactive network security protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Baoxu; Li Xueying; Cao Aijuan; Yu Chuansong; Xu Rongsheng

    2003-01-01

    The proactive protection measures and the traditional passive security protection tools are complementarities each other. It also can supply the conventional network security protection system and enhance its capability of the security protection. Based upon sorts of existing network security technologies, this article analyses and summarizes the technologies, functions and the development directions of some key proactive network security protection tools. (authors)

  7. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  8. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  9. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  10. Winning community support through proactive communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zelmer, R.L.; Stickley, S.; Gerestein, B.

    2006-01-01

    For over 20 years the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Office (LLRWMO) has conducted remedial projects in communities across Canada. Through experience in the various social climates of Canadian communities, the LLRWMO has learned that community involvement and communications are integral to a project's overall success. The Port Hope Area Initiative is the largest project ever undertaken by the LLRWMO and all the proactive communications and consultation lessons learned from other projects have been applied in the Port Hope and Port Granby communities. The relationship of trust and credibility built over 20 years of LLRWMO operations in Port Hope provides a firm foundation for moving forward with the cleanup and long-term safe management of approximately two million cubic metres of low-level radioactive waste and contaminated soil in the Port Hope and Port Granby communities. (author)

  11. Proactive condition monitoring of low-speed machines

    CERN Document Server

    Stamboliska, Zhaklina; Moczko, Przemyslaw

    2015-01-01

    This book broadens readers’ understanding of proactive condition monitoring of low-speed machines in heavy industries. It focuses on why low-speed machines are different than others and how maintenance of these machines should be implemented with particular attention. The authors explain the best available monitoring techniques for various equipment and the principle of how to get proactive information from each technique. They further put forward possible strategies for application of FEM for detection of faults and technical assessment of machinery. Implementation phases are described and industrial case-studies of proactive condition monitoring are included. Proactive Condition Monitoring of Low-Speed Machines is an essential resource for engineers and technical managers across a range of industries as well as design engineers working in industrial product development. This book also: ·         Explains the practice of proactive condition monitoring and illustrates implementation phases ·   ...

  12. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  13. Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

    CERN Document Server

    Crowder, Martin J

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

  14. The Effect of Aging on the Dynamics of Reactive and Proactive Cognitive Control of Response Interference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Ling; Zhang, Baoqiang; Wang, Baoxi; Jiang, Jun; Zhang, Fenghua; Hu, Zhujing

    2016-01-01

    A prime-target interference task was used to investigate the effects of cognitive aging on reactive and proactive control after eliminating frequency confounds and feature repetitions from the cognitive control measures. We used distributional analyses to explore the dynamics of the two control functions by distinguishing the strength of incorrect response capture and the efficiency of suppression control. For reactive control, within-trial conflict control and between-trial conflict adaption were analyzed. The statistical analysis showed that there were no reliable between-trial conflict adaption effects for either young or older adults. For within-trial conflict control, the results revealed that older adults showed larger interference effects on mean RT and mean accuracy. Distributional analyses showed that the decline mainly stemmed from inefficient suppression rather than from stronger incorrect responses. For proactive control, older adults showed comparable proactive conflict resolution to young adults on mean RT and mean accuracy. Distributional analyses showed that older adults were as effective as younger adults in adjusting their responses based on congruency proportion information to minimize automatic response capture and actively suppress the direct response activation. The results suggest that older adults were less proficient at suppressing interference after conflict was detected but can anticipate and prevent inference in response to congruency proportion manipulation. These results challenge earlier views that older adults have selective deficits in proactive control but intact reactive control.

  15. The effect of aging on the dynamics of reactive and proactive cognitive control of response interference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Xiang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A prime-target interference task was used to investigate the effects of cognitive aging on reactive and proactive control in which frequency confounds and feature repetitions were eliminated from the cognitive control measures. We used distributional analyses to explore the dynamics of the two control functions by distinguishing the strength of incorrect response capture and the efficiency of suppression control. For reactive control, within-trial conflict control and between-trial conflict adaption were analyzed. The statistical analysis showed that there were no reliable between-trial conflict adaption effects for both young and older adults. For within-trial conflict control, the results revealed that older adults showed larger interference effects on mean RT and mean accuracy. Distributional analyses showed that the decline mainly stemmed from inefficient suppression rather than from stronger incorrect responses. For proactive control, older adults showed comparable proactive conflict resolution than young adults on mean RT and mean accuracy. Distributional analyses showed older adults were as effective as younger adults in adjusting their responses to minimize automatic response capture and actively suppress the direct response activation based on congruency proportion information. The results suggest that older adults were less proficient at suppressing interference after conflict was detected but can anticipate and prevent inference in response to congruency proportion manipulation. The results challenge earlier views that older adults have selective deficits in proactive control but are spared in reactive control.

  16. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  17. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  18. Flexible and Scalable Data Fusion using Proactive, Schemaless Information Services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widener, Patrick M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Scalable System Software Dept.

    2014-05-01

    Exascale data environments are fast approaching, driven by diverse structured and unstructured data such as system and application telemetry streams, open-source information capture, and on-demand simulation output. Storage costs having plummeted, the question is now one of converting vast stores of data to actionable information. Complicating this problem are the low degrees of awareness across domain boundaries about what potentially useful data may exist, and write-once-read- never issues (data generation/collection rates outpacing data analysis and integration rates). Increasingly, technologists and researchers need to correlate previously unrelated data sources and artifacts to produce fused data views for domain-specific purposes. New tools and approaches for creating such views from vast amounts of data are vitally important to maintaining research and operational momentum. We propose to research and develop tools and services to assist in the creation, refinement, discovery and reuse of fused data views over large, diverse collections of heterogeneously structured data. We innovate in the following ways. First, we enable and encourage end-users to introduce customized index methods selected for local benefit rather than for global interaction (flexible multi-indexing). We envision rich combinations of such views on application data: views that span backing stores with different semantics, that introduce analytic methods of indexing, and that define multiple views on individual data items. We specifically decline to build a big fused database of everything providing a centralized index over all data, or to export a rigid schema to all comers as in federated query approaches. Second, we proactively advertise these application-specific views so that they may be programmatically reused and extended (data proactivity). Through this mechanism, both changes in state (new data in existing view collected) and changes in structure (new or derived view exists) are

  19. Flexible and Scalable Data Fusion using Proactive Schemaless Information Services

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widener, Patrick [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-05-01

    Exascale data environments are fast approaching, driven by diverse structured and unstructured data such as system and application telemetry streams, open-source information capture, and on-demand simulation output. Storage costs having plummeted, the question is now one of converting vast stores of data to actionable information. Complicating this problem are the low degrees of awareness across domain boundaries about what potentially useful data may exist, and write-once- read-never issues (data generation/collection rates outpacing data analysis and integration rates). Increasingly, technologists and researchers need to correlate previously unrelated data sources and artifacts to produce fused data views for domain-specific purposes. New tools and approaches for creating such views from vast amounts of data are vitally important to maintaining research and operational momentum. We propose to research and develop tools and services to assist in the creation, refinement, discovery and reuse of fused data views over large, diverse collections of heterogeneously structured data. We innovate in the following ways. First, we enable and encourage end-users to introduce customized index methods selected for local benefit rather than for global interaction (flexible multi-indexing). We envision rich combinations of such views on application data: views that span backing stores with different semantics, that introduce analytic methods of indexing, and that define multiple views on individual data items. We specifically decline to build a big fused database of everything providing a centralized index over all data, or to export a rigid schema to all comers as in federated query approaches. Second, we proactively advertise these application-specific views so that they may be programmatically reused and extended (data proactivity). Through this mechanism, both changes in state (new data in existing view collected) and changes in structure (new or derived view exists) are

  20. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  1. Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Henrik

    2002-07-01

    Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

  2. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  3. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  5. Proactivity despite discouraging supervisors: The powerful role of prosocial motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, R David; Patil, Shefali V

    2018-03-26

    Although considerable research demonstrates that employees are unlikely to be proactive when they view their supervisors as discouraging this type of behavior, we challenge the assumption that this is true for all employees. Drawing on motivated information processing theory, we argue that prosocial motivation can spark employees to be proactive even when supervisors are perceived as discouraging. Specifically, prosocial motivation may weaken the negative relationship between perceived discouraging supervisor behaviors and proactivity by driving employees to bring about change to impact coworkers or the organization. Because they are less focused on self-interest and more focused on benefitting others, prosocially motivated employees are able to maintain their reason-to (felt responsibility for change) and can-do (efficacy to be proactive) motivation even when supervisors do not welcome proactivity. We test our hypotheses across three studies, using multisource data from employees and supervisors in two organizations (Studies 1a and 1b), and lagged data from employees working in a range of industries (Study 2). By identifying the mechanisms driving prosocially motivated employees to be proactive despite having supervisors who are perceived to be discouraging, we offer novel theoretical and practical insights regarding the effects of context on proactivity at work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  7. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  8. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  9. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  10. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  11. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  12. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  13. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  14. Proactive personality and job performance: a social capital perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jeffery A

    2005-09-01

    This study of 126 employee-supervisor dyads examined a mediated model of the relationship between proactive personality and job performance. The model, informed by the social capital perspective, suggests that proactive employees reap performance benefits by means of developing social networks that provide them the resources and latitude to pursue high-level initiatives. Structural equation modeling suggested that the relationship between proactive personality and job performance is mediated by network building and initiative taking on the part of the employee. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. Are proactive personalities always beneficial? Political skill as a moderator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shuhua; van Emmerik, Hetty I J

    2015-05-01

    Does proactive personality always enhance job success? The authors of this study draw on socioanalytic theory of personality and organizational political perspectives to study employees' political skill in moderating the effects of proactive personality on supervisory ratings of employee task performance, helping behaviors, and learning behaviors. Multisource data from 225 subordinates and their 75 immediate supervisors reveal that proactive personality is associated negatively with supervisory evaluations when political skill is low, and the negative relationship disappears when political skill is high. Implications and future research directions are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Proactive Review – learn from experience to improve bottom line

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolbæk, Ditte

    2016-01-01

    This article aims to provide a theoretically based and proven educational design for lessons learned. Called a Proactive Review, this educational design is exemplified in a case study of a global information technology company classified as big business, where Proactive Reviews were developed...... and implemented in over 40 countries. This article explores how employees who solve a task together can learn from the experience and share this learning with relevant colleagues to improve work practices, services, and/or products. This article describes the format of Proactive Reviews, suggestions for starting...

  17. Improve Business Results by Learning from Experience in Proactive Reviews

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolbæk, Ditte

    2018-01-01

    This article aims to provide a theoretically based and proven educational design for lessons learned. Called a Proactive Review, this educational design is exemplified in a case study of a global information technology company classified as big business, where Proactive Reviews were developed...... and implemented in over 40 countries. This article explores how employees who solve a task together can learn from the experience and share this learning with relevant colleagues to improve work practices, services, and/or products. This article describes the format of Proactive Reviews, suggestions for starting...

  18. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  19. Proactive learning for artificial cognitive systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo-Young

    2010-04-01

    The Artificial Cognitive Systems (ACS) will be developed for human-like functions such as vision, auditory, inference, and behavior. Especially, computational models and artificial HW/SW systems will be devised for Proactive Learning (PL) and Self-Identity (SI). The PL model provides bilateral interactions between robot and unknown environment (people, other robots, cyberspace). For the situation awareness in unknown environment it is required to receive audiovisual signals and to accumulate knowledge. If the knowledge is not enough, the PL should improve by itself though internet and others. For human-oriented decision making it is also required for the robot to have self-identify and emotion. Finally, the developed models and system will be mounted on a robot for the human-robot co-existing society. The developed ACS will be tested against the new Turing Test for the situation awareness. The Test problems will consist of several video clips, and the performance of the ACSs will be compared against those of human with several levels of cognitive ability.

  20. Proactive Risk Assessments and the Continuity of Business Principles: Perspectives on This Novel, Combined Approach to Develop Guidance for the Permitted Movement of Agricultural Products during a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Timothy J; Culhane, Marie Rene; Sampedro, Fernando; Cardona, Carol J

    2016-01-01

    Animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) have the potential to severely impact food animal production systems. Paradoxically, the collateral damage associated with the outbreak response may create a larger threat to the food supply, social stability, and economic viability of rural communities than the disease itself. When FMD occurs in domestic animals, most developed countries will implement strict movement controls in the area surrounding the infected farm(s). Historically, stopping all animal movements has been considered one of the most effective ways to control FMD and stop disease spread. However, stopping all movements in an area comes at a cost, as there are often uninfected herds and flocks within the control area. The inability to harvest uninfected animals and move their products to processing interrupts the food supply chain and has the potential to result in an enormous waste of safe, nutritious animal products, and create animal welfare situations. In addition, these adverse effects may negatively impact agriculture businesses and the related economy. Effective disease control measures and the security of the food supply thus require a balanced approach based on science and practicality. Evaluating the risks associated with the movement of live animals and products before an outbreak happens provides valuable insights for risk management plans. These plans can optimize animal and product movements while preventing disease spread. Food security benefits from emergency response plans that both control the disease and keep our food system functional. Therefore, emergency response plans must aim to minimize the unintended negative consequence to farmers, food processors, rural communities, and ultimately consumers.

  1. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments

  2. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  3. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  4. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  5. Release from Proactive Interference: Insufficiency of an Attentional Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Colin M.

    1975-01-01

    If an attentional cue affects retroactive interference, perhaps a similar mechanism underlies release from proactive interference. This study tested this hypothesis by inserting an attentional cue before the final trial in Wickens' paradigm. (Author/RK)

  6. From reactive to proactive apporach of interactive leadership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2010-01-01

    In order to enhance a constructive approach to technological and organisational development it seems important to involve employees proactively. The chapter discribe and analyse different approaches to do that and analyse the impacts on organisational change...

  7. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  8. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  9. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative

  10. Intelligent Transportation Control based on Proactive Complex Event Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Yongheng; Geng Shaofeng; Li Qian

    2016-01-01

    Complex Event Processing (CEP) has become the key part of Internet of Things (IoT). Proactive CEP can predict future system states and execute some actions to avoid unwanted states which brings new hope to intelligent transportation control. In this paper, we propose a proactive CEP architecture and method for intelligent transportation control. Based on basic CEP technology and predictive analytic technology, a networked distributed Markov decision processes model with predicting states is p...

  11. Simplified Threshold RSA with Adaptive and Proactive Security

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almansa Guerra, Jesus Fernando; Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Nielsen, Jesper Buus

    2006-01-01

    We present the currently simplest, most efficient, optimally resilient, adaptively secure, and proactive threshold RSA scheme. A main technical contribution is a new rewinding strategy for analysing threshold signature schemes. This new rewinding strategy allows to prove adaptive security...... of a proactive threshold signature scheme which was previously assumed to be only statically secure. As a separate contribution we prove that our protocol is secure in the UC framework....

  12. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

  13. A proactive approach to sustainable management of mine tailings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edraki, Mansour; Baumgartl, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The reactive strategies to manage mine tailings i.e. containment of slurries of tailings in tailings storage facilities (TSF's) and remediation of tailings solids or tailings seepage water after the decommissioning of those facilities, can be technically inefficient to eliminate environmental risks (e.g. prevent dispersion of contaminants and catastrophic dam wall failures), pose a long term economic burden for companies, governments and society after mine closure, and often fail to meet community expectations. Most preventive environmental management practices promote proactive integrated approaches to waste management whereby the source of environmental issues are identified to help make a more informed decisions. They often use life cycle assessment to find the "hot spots" of environmental burdens. This kind of approach is often based on generic data and has rarely been used for tailings. Besides, life cycle assessments are less useful for designing operations or simulating changes in the process and consequent environmental outcomes. It is evident that an integrated approach for tailings research linked to better processing options is needed. A literature review revealed that there are only few examples of integrated approaches. The aim of this project is to develop new tailings management models by streamlining orebody characterization, process optimization and rehabilitation. The approach is based on continuous fingerprinting of geochemical processes from orebody to tailings storage facility, and benchmark the success of such proactive initiatives by evidence of no impacts and no future projected impacts on receiving environments. We present an approach for developing such a framework and preliminary results from a case study where combined grinding and flotation models developed using geometallurgical data from the orebody were constructed to predict the properties of tailings produced under various processing scenarios. The modelling scenarios based on the

  14. Why Leading Consumer Product Companies Develop Proactive Chemical Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruggs, Caroline E.; Van Buren, Harry J.

    2014-01-01

    Scholars have studied the various pressures that companies face related to socially responsible behavior when stakeholders know the particular social issues under consideration. Many have examined social responsibility in the context of environmental responsibility and the general approaches companies take regarding environmental management. The issue of currently unregulated, but potentially hazardous, chemicals in consumer products is not well understood by the general public, but a number of proactive consumer product companies have voluntarily adopted strategies to minimize use of such chemicals. These companies are exceeding regulatory requirements by restricting from their products chemicals that could harm human or environmental health, despite the fact that these actions are costly. They do not usually advertise the details of their strategies to end consumers. This article uses interviews with senior environmental directors of 20 multinational consumer product companies to investigate why these companies engage in voluntary chemicals management. The authors conclude that the most significant reasons are to achieve a competitive advantage and stay ahead of regulations, manage relationships and maintain legitimacy with stakeholders, and put managerial values into practice. Many of the characteristics related to the case of chemicals management are extendable to other areas of stakeholder management in which risks to stakeholders are either unknown or poorly understood. PMID:27471326

  15. Why Leading Consumer Product Companies Develop Proactive Chemical Management Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruggs, Caroline E; Van Buren, Harry J

    2016-05-01

    Scholars have studied the various pressures that companies face related to socially responsible behavior when stakeholders know the particular social issues under consideration. Many have examined social responsibility in the context of environmental responsibility and the general approaches companies take regarding environmental management. The issue of currently unregulated, but potentially hazardous, chemicals in consumer products is not well understood by the general public, but a number of proactive consumer product companies have voluntarily adopted strategies to minimize use of such chemicals. These companies are exceeding regulatory requirements by restricting from their products chemicals that could harm human or environmental health, despite the fact that these actions are costly. They do not usually advertise the details of their strategies to end consumers. This article uses interviews with senior environmental directors of 20 multinational consumer product companies to investigate why these companies engage in voluntary chemicals management. The authors conclude that the most significant reasons are to achieve a competitive advantage and stay ahead of regulations, manage relationships and maintain legitimacy with stakeholders, and put managerial values into practice. Many of the characteristics related to the case of chemicals management are extendable to other areas of stakeholder management in which risks to stakeholders are either unknown or poorly understood.

  16. Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Mazareanu

    2007-01-01

    We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...

  17. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

  18. Analysis and risk management after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, P. F.

    2011-11-01

    This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)

  19. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  20. The Differences in Normative Beliefs among Schoolchildren with Reactive, Proactive, Reactive-Proactive Aggression, and without Aggression

    OpenAIRE

    Annis Lai Chu Fung

    2015-01-01

    This study is to fill up a research gap on examining the differences in normative beliefs (namely acceptance of weaknesses, acceptance of provoked aggression, and acceptance of unprovoked aggression) among different subtypes of aggressors and non-aggressors (reactive aggressors, proactive aggressors, reactive-proactive aggressors, and non-aggressors). 2,236 students (1,372 males and 864 females), aged from 11 to 18, completed a self-reported questionnaire. Results reveale...

  1. [Neurobiological aspects of reactive and proactive violence in antisocial personality disorder and "psychopathy"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Gerhard; Strüber, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Impulsive-reactive violent offenders show increased autonomic activity in response to negative emotional and threatening stimuli. A volume reduction and/or activity decrease of frontal brain structures associated with impulse control and the regulation of fear and anger are likewise found in combination with a fear-related hyperactivity of the amygdala. In addition, impulsive aggression is facilitated by variants of gene polymorphisms influencing the serotonergic system. Conversely, proactive-instrumental violent offender with psychopathy, who are characterized by a lack of empathy and remorse, demonstrate an autonomic hypo-responsivity as well as dysfunctions of the amygdala and of cortical regions related to empathic and social behavior. Developmentally, aggressive children exhibit temperamental differences from early childhood on that are characteristic of a developmental pathway towards either reactive or proactive violence later in life. Exposure to negative environmental factors like ineffective parenting or childhood maltreatment has been related to a heightened risk for developing reactive violence. A developmental trajectory of proactive violence, however, has been related to a mostly genetically determined callous unemotional temperament of the child that disrupts the parental socialization efforts during childhood.

  2. Effectiveness of Chinese Martial Arts and Philosophy to Reduce Reactive and Proactive Aggression in Schoolchildren.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, Annis Lai Chu; Lee, Toney Ka Hung

    2018-04-10

    This study examined the effectiveness of Chinese martial arts in reducing reactive and proactive aggressive behavior among schoolchildren with a cluster-randomized trial. A screening questionnaire was completed by 3511 schoolchildren of Grades 2 to 5 from 13 sites in Hong Kong. We shortlisted 298 children who scored z ≥ 1 on the total score of the Reactive-Proactive Aggression Questionnaire in their respective sites to participate in the experiment. They were divided into 31 clusters that were blinded and randomly assigned to one of the 4 conditions: skills only, philosophy only, skills and philosophy, and physical fitness (placebo). Subjects were assessed at baseline, posttraining, and 6 months after training using aggression scales. Results from the linear mixed model indicated that the time × training interaction effects were significant for aggressive behavior (reactive and proactive), delinquent behavior, anxiety/depression, and attention problems. Although all measures declined in all conditions over time, only the skills-and-philosophy condition showed a significant reduction at posttraining and/or 6-month follow-up compared with the placebo. The results provided a theoretical proof for the relationship between aggression and sport involvement combined with children's moral reasoning. This study gives practical implications to intervention that solely playing sports or teaching moral lessons is not effective enough for high-risk schoolchildren with aggressive behavior. However, combined traditional Chinese martial arts skills and moral philosophy training could be considered in the school curriculum to reduce school violence and facilitate creation of harmonious schools.

  3. Initiatives on early detection and intervention to proactively identify health and social problems in older people: experiences from the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lette, Manon; Baan, Caroline A; van den Berg, Matthijs; de Bruin, Simone R

    2015-10-30

    Over the last years, several initiatives on early detection and intervention have been put in place to proactively identify health and social problems in (frail) older people. An overview of the initiatives currently available in the Netherlands is lacking, and it is unknown whether they meet the preferences and needs of older people. Therefore, the objectives of this study were threefold: 1. To identify initiatives on early detection and intervention for older people in the Netherlands and compare their characteristics; 2. To explore the experiences of professionals with these initiatives; and 3. To explore to what extent existing initiatives meet the preferences and needs of older people. We performed a qualitative descriptive study in which we conducted semi-structured interviews with seventeen experts in preventive elderly care and three group interviews with volunteer elderly advisors. Data were analysed using the framework analysis method. We identified eight categories of initiatives based on the setting (e.g. general practitioner practice, hospital, municipality) in which they were offered. Initiatives differed in their aims and target groups. The utilization of peers to identify problems and risks, as was done by some initiatives, was seen as a strength. Difficulties were experienced with identifying the target group that would benefit from proactive delivery of care and support most, and with addressing prevalent issues among older people (e.g. psychosocial issues, self-reliance issues). Although there is a broad array of initiatives available, there is a discrepancy between supply and demand. Current initiatives insufficiently address needs of (frail) older people. More insight is needed in "what should be done by whom, for which target group and at what moment", in order to improve current practice in preventive elderly care.

  4. Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandyberry, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment

  5. Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

    2004-04-01

    Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

  6. Proactive Public Disclosure: A new regulatory strategy for creating tax compliance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boll Karen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses proactive public disclosure of taxpayer information and how this may form a new strategy for securing tax compliance by tax administrators. It reports a case study from the Danish Customs and Tax Administration in which consumers of services-over a short period of time-were informed about businesses’ lack of value-added tax (VAT registration. Our approach to the case is twofold: First, the article lays out a legal analysis of the disclosure practice, and second, the article presents an organizational analysis of why the practice was initiated. The analyses show that using proactive public disclosure is compatible with the Duty of Confidentiality, but incompatible with Good Public Governance. Furthermore, the analyses show that there are a number of strong organizational rationales for using proactive public disclosure, despite its apparent incompatibility with Good Public Governance. The article is innovative in that it combines a legal and organizational approach to analyse a new regulatory strategy within tax administration.

  7. Comparative Effectiveness of Proactive Tobacco Treatment among Smokers with and without Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzer, Anne C; Clothier, Barbara A; Japuntich, Sandra J; Noorbaloochi, Siamak; Hammett, Patrick; Burgess, Diana J; Joseph, Anne M; Fu, Steven S

    2018-03-01

    Adults with chronic lower respiratory disease differ in their barriers to smoking cessation but also suffer from tobacco-related health concerns, which may motivate quit attempts. Few studies have examined differences in tobacco treatment response between smokers with and without chronic lower respiratory disease. We examined the effectiveness of a proactive outreach program for cessation among smokers with and without chronic lower respiratory disease. Subgroup analysis of the Veterans Victory over Tobacco Study, a pragmatic randomized controlled trial that demonstrated the effectiveness of proactive outreach and the choice of tobacco treatments compared with usual care. Smokers identified via the electronic medical record were proactively offered phone-based counseling and care coordination to receive medication from their Veterans Affairs providers or in-person care. We compared the response among those with and without an International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision diagnosis of a chronic lower respiratory disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, asthma). We used stratification by propensity scores to adjust for imbalanced covariates between groups with and without chronic lower respiratory disease within each treatment arm, using complete case analysis accounting for the stratified sampling by site. The study participants were predominantly older, white, male smokers. Overall, 19.6% had chronic lower respiratory disease. A total of 3,307 had outcome data with the following assignments to the intervention: proactive care: n = 1,272 without chronic lower respiratory disease, n = 301 with chronic lower respiratory disease; usual care: n = 1,387 without chronic lower respiratory disease, n = 347 with chronic lower respiratory disease. A total of 1,888 had both complete baseline and outcome data and were included in the primary analysis. In unadjusted analyses (n = 3,307), among individuals with

  8. Proactive pavement asset management with climate change aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zofka, Adam

    2018-05-01

    Pavement Asset Management System is a systematic and objective tool to manage pavement network based on the rational, engineering and economic principles. Once implemented and mature Pavement Asset Management System serves the entire range of users starting with the maintenance engineers and ending with the decision-makers. Such a system is necessary to coordinate agency management strategy including proactive maintenance. Basic inputs in the majority of existing Pavement Asset Management System approaches comprise the actual pavement inventory with associated construction history and condition, traffic information as well as various economical parameters. Some Pavement Management System approaches include also weather aspects which is of particular importance considering ongoing climate changes. This paper presents challenges in implementing the Pavement Asset Management System for those National Road Administrations that manage their pavement assets using more traditional strategies, e.g. worse-first approach. Special considerations are given to weather-related inputs and associated analysis to demonstrate the effects of climate change in a short- and long-term range. Based on the presented examples this paper concludes that National Road Administrations should account for the weather-related factors in their Pavement Management Systems as this has a significant impact on the system outcomes from the safety and economical perspective.

  9. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  11. Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeberlein, K.

    1982-01-01

    The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de

  12. Assessing Community Health Risks: Proactive Vs Reactive Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Sarah Taylor; Chelsea Papadopoulos; Sarah Vieillet; Peter D. Marco

    2009-01-01

    Problem statement: A considerable number of native birds died in the West Australian coastal town of Esperance and surroundings during late 2006 and early 2007, which raised community concerns about environmental contamination. Forensic investigations of dead birds suggested that lead may have been the causative agent. At the time, lead and nickel, as well as iron ore and other materials, were being exported through the Port of Esperance (port). Government agencies undertook a targeted enviro...

  13. Development of probabilistic risk analysis library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi

    2015-01-01

    We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)

  14. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  15. Popularity differentially predicts reactive and proactive aggression in early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoltz, Sabine; Cillessen, Antonius H N; van den Berg, Yvonne H M; Gommans, Rob

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that peer popularity is associated with aggressive behavior. However, it is not yet clear whether popularity is uniquely related to different functions of aggression. In this study, we examined associations between peer-perceived popularity, and reactive and proactive aggression using a cross-sectional and a longitudinal design. Yearly sociometric measures of popularity, and reactive and proactive aggression were gathered from 266 seventh and eight grade adolescents (Mage grade 7 = 12.80, SDage  = .40). Popularity was positively correlated with proactive aggression and negatively correlated with reactive aggression, both concurrently as over time. Curvilinear trends indicated that a significant minority of low versus high popular adolescents showed both functions of aggression. Somewhat stronger effects of popularity on proactive aggression were found for boys than girls. Stably popular adolescents showed the highest levels of proactive aggression, whereas stably unpopular youth showed the highest levels of reactive aggression. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Corina Deselnicu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

  17. ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

    OpenAIRE

    Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin

    2009-01-01

    The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...

  18. Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

  19. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  20. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

  1. Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

    1994-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort

  2. Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleke, Jude Adekunle; Moodley, Deshendran; Rens, Gavin; Adewumi, Aderemi Oluyinka

    2017-04-09

    Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web.

  3. The PROactive instruments to measure physical activity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimeno-Santos, Elena; Raste, Yogini; Demeyer, Heleen; Louvaris, Zafeiris; de Jong, Corina; Rabinovich, Roberto A.; Hopkinson, Nicholas S.; Polkey, Michael I.; Vogiatzis, Ioannis; Tabberer, Maggie; Dobbels, Fabienne; Ivanoff, Nathalie; de Boer, Willem I.; van der Molen, Thys; Kulich, Karoly; Serra, Ignasi; Basagaña, Xavier; Troosters, Thierry; Puhan, Milo A.; Karlsson, Niklas

    2015-01-01

    No current patient-centred instrument captures all dimensions of physical activity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our objective was item reduction and initial validation of two instruments to measure physical activity in COPD. Physical activity was assessed in a 6-week, randomised, two-way cross-over, multicentre study using PROactive draft questionnaires (daily and clinical visit versions) and two activity monitors. Item reduction followed an iterative process including classical and Rasch model analyses, and input from patients and clinical experts. 236 COPD patients from five European centres were included. Results indicated the concept of physical activity in COPD had two domains, labelled “amount” and “difficulty”. After item reduction, the daily PROactive instrument comprised nine items and the clinical visit contained 14. Both demonstrated good model fit (person separation index >0.7). Confirmatory factor analysis supported the bidimensional structure. Both instruments had good internal consistency (Cronbach's α>0.8), test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient ≥0.9) and exhibited moderate-to-high correlations (r>0.6) with related constructs and very low correlations (r<0.3) with unrelated constructs, providing evidence for construct validity. Daily and clinical visit “PROactive physical activity in COPD” instruments are hybrid tools combining a short patient-reported outcome questionnaire and two activity monitor variables which provide simple, valid and reliable measures of physical activity in COPD patients. PMID:26022965

  4. Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude Adekunle Adeleke

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web.

  5. Testing complex animal cognition: Concept learning, proactive interference, and list memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Anthony A

    2018-01-01

    This article describes an approach for assessing and comparing complex cognition in rhesus monkeys and pigeons by training them in a sequence of synergistic tasks, each yielding a whole function for enhanced comparisons. These species were trained in similar same/different tasks with expanding training sets (8, 16, 32, 64, 128 … 1024 pictures) followed by novel-stimulus transfer eventually resulting in full abstract-concept learning. Concept-learning functions revealed better rhesus transfer throughout and full concept learning at the 128 set, versus pigeons at the 256 set. They were then tested in delayed same/different tasks for proactive interference by inserting occasional tests within trial-unique sessions where the test stimulus matched a previous sample stimulus (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 trials prior). Proactive-interference functions revealed time-based interference for pigeons (1, 10 s delays), but event-based interference for rhesus (no effect of 1, 10, 20 s delays). They were then tested in list-memory tasks by expanding the sample to four samples in trial-unique sessions (minimizing proactive interference). The four-item, list-memory functions revealed strong recency memory at short delays, gradually changing to strong primacy memory at long delays over 30 s for rhesus, and 10 s for pigeons. Other species comparisons and future directions are discussed. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  6. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  7. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  8. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  9. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  10. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  11. A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

    2004-01-01

    ...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

  12. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  13. Intelligent Transportation Control based on Proactive Complex Event Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yongheng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex Event Processing (CEP has become the key part of Internet of Things (IoT. Proactive CEP can predict future system states and execute some actions to avoid unwanted states which brings new hope to intelligent transportation control. In this paper, we propose a proactive CEP architecture and method for intelligent transportation control. Based on basic CEP technology and predictive analytic technology, a networked distributed Markov decision processes model with predicting states is proposed as sequential decision model. A Q-learning method is proposed for this model. The experimental evaluations show that this method works well when used to control congestion in in intelligent transportation systems.

  14. In the Nick of Time: Proactive Prevention of Obligation Violations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basin, David; Debois, Søren; Hildebrandt, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    We present a system model, an enforcement mechanism, and a policy language for the proactive enforcement of timed provisions and obligations. Our approach improves upon existing formalisms in two ways: (1) we exploit the target system's existing functionality to avert policy violations proactively...... declaratively express timed provisions and obligations as causal relationships between events, and DCR states explicitly represent pending obligations. As key technical results, we show that enforceability of DCR policies is decidable, we give a sufficient polynomial time verifiable condition for a policy...... to be enforceable, and we give an algorithm for determining from a DCR state a sequence of actions that discharge impending obligations....

  15. PROACTIVE DEFENSE FOR EVOLVING SUPPLY CHAIN COUNTERFEITING

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    counterfeiters who reprocess the parts and sell them as original products .4 Information Communication Technology (ICT): refers to the information and...company that originally built a product .9 Supply Chain Risk: risks that arise from the confidentiality, integrity, or availability of information...four different graduate schools spread across 22 years of marriage. For the past few years, she has endured a life with an " absentee husband" who

  16. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  17. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, L.; Hejduk, M.; Frigm, R.; Duncan, M.

    2014-09-01

    On-orbit collisions pose a significant mission risk to satellites operating in the space environment. Recognizing the likelihood and consequence of on-orbit collisions, NASA has taken several proactive measures to mitigate the risk of both a catastrophic loss of mission and the increase in the space debris population. In fall 2004, NASA GSFC established an Agency-wide, institutionalized process and service for identifying and reacting to predicted close approaches. The team responsible for executing this mission is the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team. By fall 2005, this process had resulted in the execution of the first collision avoidance maneuver by a NASA unmanned satellite. In February 2008, NASA adopted a policy, documented in NASA Procedural Requirement 8715.6a Process for Limiting Orbital Debris that directed maneuverable satellites to have such an on-orbit collision mitigation process. In 2009, NASA decided to require support for all operational satellites. By January 2014, the CARA team has processed nearly 500,000 close approach messages from the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) and has assisted our mission customers with planning and executing over 75 collision avoidance maneuvers for unmanned satellites in LEO, GEO, and HEO orbital regimes. With the increase in number of operational missions supported; growth in the orbital debris environment due to events such as the intentional destruction of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in 2007 and collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251; and improvements to the United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and its ability to track, catalog, and screen against small debris objects, the demands on the CARA process have consequently required the CARA Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to evolve to manage those demands. This evolution is centered on the ability to effectively and efficiently manage JSpOC, CARA, and Mission Operations resources, applying operational and analytical

  18. Materials ageing degradation programme in japan and proactive ageing management in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, T.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive and preventive maintenance technologies are increasingly of importance for the long term operation (LTO) of Light Water Reactor (LWR) plants. In order for the realization LTO to be successful, it is essential that aging degradation phenomena should be properly managed by using adequate maintenance programs based on foreseeing the aging phenomena and evaluating their rates of development, where Nuclear Power Plants can be continued to operate beyond the original design life depending upon the regulatory authority rules. In combination with Periodic Safety Review (PSR) and adequate maintenance program, a plant life can be extended to 60 years or more. Plant Life Management (PLiM) is based upon various maintenance program as well as systematic safety review updated based upon the state of the art of science and technology. One of the potential life time limiting issue would be materials ageing degradation and therefore an extensive efforts have been paid world-widely. In 2007, NISA launched a national program on Enhanced Ageing Management Program and 4 nationwide clusters were formed to carry out the national program where materials ageing degradation was one of the major topics. In addition to these degradation modes, one important activities in this program is proactive materials degradation management directed by the author which is a kind of the extension program of NRC PMDA program based upon more fundamental approach by a systematic elicitation by the experts nominated from all over the world. NISA program can be divided into two phases, one is from fiscal years (FY) 2006 - 2010 and the other FY 2011. Later phase is focusing more on System Safety due to Fukushima NPP accident. The main objectives of the Phase I is to evaluate potential and complex degradation phenomena and their mechanisms in order to identify future risks of component aging in nuclear power plants. The following items are of particular concern in this phase: (a) investigation of

  19. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  20. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  1. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  2. Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnett, John

    2010-11-01

    How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.

  3. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  4. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  5. RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk is....... This understanding can serve to facilitate more informed and effective decision making that incorporates both risk and quality before, during, and after emergency events....... independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...

  8. Social Skills Efficacy and Proactivity among Native American Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sherri L.; Conkel, Julia L.; Reich, Allison N.; Trotter, Michelle J.; Siewart, Jason J.

    2006-01-01

    This article discusses Native American urban adolescents' construal of social skills, and relationships between these skills and proactivity behaviors as identified in the Integrative Contextual Model of Career Development (Lapan, 2004). Recommendations that build upon the social skills strengths of Native American young people are included.…

  9. Assessment of proactive transmission power control for wireless sensor networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    kotian, Roshan; Exarchakos, Georgios; Liotta, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    In order to prolong lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), Transmission Power Control (TPC) techniques are employed. The existing TPC schemes adjust the transmission power mostly reacting to changes at link quality between communicating nodes. Proactive TPC has been proposed in the recent past

  10. Proactive control in early and middle childhood: An ERP study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Elke

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Children experience important cognitive control improvements in the transition to school. This study examined 4–5-year-olds’ (n = 17 and 7–8-year-olds’ (n = 22 ability to proactively deploy cognitive control. Children performed a cued task-switching paradigm presenting them with a cue indicating which attribute, color or shape, they should use to sort the upcoming stimulus. Following both cue and stimulus, we analyzed two event-related potentials: the P2 and P3, positive peaks reflecting sensory and attentional components of cognitive control, respectively. Following the cue, we also analyzed a positive slow-wave, indexing working memory engagement. We predicted that on switch trials, which required switching tasks, proactive control would result in larger cue-P3 amplitudes, reflecting recognition of the need to switch, and larger slow-wave amplitudes, reflecting maintenance of the new task-sets over the post-cue delay. This pattern was observed in both age groups. At the stimulus, in switch trials, both age groups had shorter stimulus-P2 latencies, consistent with processing facilitation. These results suggest that both 4–5- and 7–8-year-olds engaged cognitive control proactively. Older children, however, demonstrated better performance and larger cue-P2 amplitudes, suggesting more effective proactive control engagement in middle childhood.

  11. Inhibitory Control of Proactive Interference in Adults with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Holly A.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with poor inhibition of prepotent responses and deficits in distractor inhibition, but relatively few studies have addressed inhibitory control of proactive interference (PI) in individuals with ADHD. Thus, the goal of the present study was to evaluate resistance to spatial…

  12. The Contribution of Encoding and Retrieval Processes to Proactive Interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliegl, Oliver; Pastötter, Bernhard; Bäuml, Karl-Heinz T.

    2015-01-01

    Proactive interference (PI) refers to the finding that memory for recently studied (target) material can be impaired by the prior study of other (nontarget) material. Previous accounts of PI differed in whether they attributed PI to impaired retrieval or impaired encoding. Here, we suggest an integrated encoding-retrieval account, which assigns a…

  13. Identifying cognitive predictors of reactive and proactive aggression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brugman, S.; Lobbestael, J.; Arntz, A.R.; Cima, M.; Schumann, T.; Dambacher, F.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify implicit cognitive predictors of aggressive behavior. Specifically, the predictive value of an attentional bias for aggressive stimuli and automatic association of the self and aggression was examined for reactive and proactive aggressive behavior in a

  14. Transfer Failure and Proactive Interference in Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, John A.

    1977-01-01

    Two experiments tested the hypothesis that proactive interference over a series of Brown-Peterson trials results from a combination of the subject's failure to transfer information to a permanent memory state and failure to retrieve information from permanent memory. (Editor)

  15. Release from Proactive Interference with Positive and Negative Words

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, F. Richaro; King, Brent

    2004-01-01

    Using the release from proactive interference (RPI) task, college students (n = 40) received 4 trials comprised of 3-word triads of either positive (P) or negative (N) words. Word-triad recall served as the dependent measure, and results revealed typical buildup of PI (i.e., no significant group X trial interaction across Trials 1-3). Significant…

  16. Proactive Interference Slows Recognition by Eliminating Fast Assessments of Familiarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oztekin, Ilke; McElree, Brian

    2007-01-01

    The response-signal speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) procedure was used to investigate how proactive interference (PI) affects retrieval from working memory. Participants were presented with 6-item study lists, followed immediately by a recognition probe. A variant of a release from PI design was used: All items in a list were from the same semantic…

  17. Proactive Interference and Item Similarity in Working Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunting, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Proactive interference (PI) may influence the predictive utility of working memory span tasks. Participants in one experiment (N=70) completed Ravens Advanced Progressive Matrices (RAPM) and multiple versions of operation span and probed recall, modified for the type of memoranda (digits or words). Changing memoranda within- or across-trials…

  18. The Role of Response Confusion in Proactive Interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Richard F.; Thomas, Heather

    1975-01-01

    In two experiments using the Brown-Peterson memory paradigm, instructions to guess had small effects on recall, but sizeable effects on incidence of prior list intrustion. However, results indicate that proactive interference is primarily the result of inability to generate correct items, rather than confusion between present and previous items.…

  19. Mature age job seekers : The role of proactivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zacher, Hannes; Bock, Angelika

    2014-01-01

    Purpose - In the context of demographic and economic changes, helping mature age job seekers find employment is imperative. The purpose of this paper is to examine mature age job seekers' proactive personality as a moderator of the relationship between age and job search intensity; and to examine

  20. Proactivity, job characteristics, and engagement : a longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dikkers, Josje S. E.; Jansen, Paul G. W.; de Lange, Annet H.; Vinkenburg, Claartje J.; Kooij, Dorien

    2010-01-01

    Purpose - This paper sets out to examine proactive personality in relation to job demands, job resources and engagement. Design/methodology/approach - The current study employed a two-wave complete panel study among 794 Dutch government employees. Based upon the Job Demands-Resources (ID-R) model,

  1. Relationship between Implicit Leadership and Proactive Behaviors of School Principals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskinkilic-Kara, Sultan-Bilge; Zafer-Gunes, Demet

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this research is to define the school principals' implicit leadership theory and to reveal its relationship with the proactive behavior. The study is conducted in Bagcilar and Basaksehir districts in Istanbul and the target population of the research is 153 school principals working in state elementary schools, middle schools and high…

  2. Pro-active Behaviour in Context of Team Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav Pilař

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Employees are considered to be the main source of creativity, innovation, change and development of the enterprise, which can be considered as key success factors. However, if the company climate does not encourage employee activity, development may slow or stagnate. This article focuses on the possibility of prediction of personal initiative and employee silence based on quantification of the team climate. Relationships between constructs (1 “Team climate” and (2 “Pro-active Behaviour” are evaluated on the basis of Exploratory and Confirmatory factor analysis. All factors of the construct “Team climate”: (T1 Future olrientation, (T2 Peer support of change, (T3 Team Vision and (T4 Regular Contact, have a significant impact on the factors of the construct “Pro-active Behaviour”: (P1 Initiative and a negative impact on (P2 Defence silence. No statistically significant effect in relation to the factors (P3 Loyalty and (P4 Stagnation was identified. The effects, in relation to the initiative of the employees were identified in the interval r = |0.305| − |0.488|. The factor of Defence silence of employees effects “Team climate” factors in the interval r = |0.329| − |0.550|. In both cases this concerns medium dependence. The research results can be used to quantify the quality of team climate in order to enhance the individuals’ long-term initiative and organisational effectiveness. This knowledge serves managers as the basis for leadership and development of pro-active behaviour of team members.

  3. Resumes as a Proactive Career Development Tool: An Innovation at Keuka College Career Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, Todd

    2000-01-01

    A proactive resume can help individuals understand workplace demands and their fit with them. Development of proactive resumes focuses first on employability skills and then on skills and attributes of specific professions or careers. (SK)

  4. Risk analysis in transport and logistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ene Andreea Bianca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and production concentration have led to more efficient supply chain networks, which has led to the emergence of different types of risks. Although most companies have implemented special risk management programs, there may be events that can not be controlled by businesses, and unwanted consequences are not delayed.

  5. Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

  6. Airline Safety Management: The development of a proactive safety mechanism model for the evolution of safety management system

    OpenAIRE

    Hsu, Yueh-Ling

    2004-01-01

    The systemic origins of many accidents have led to heightened interest in the way in which organisations identify and manage risks within the airline industry. The activities which are thought to represent the term "organisational accident", "safety culture" and "proactive approach" are documented and seek to explain the fact that airlines differ in their willingness and ability to conduct safety management. However, an important but yet relatively undefined task in the airline...

  7. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  8. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  9. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  10. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  11. Testing can counteract proactive interference by integrating competing information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlheim, Christopher N.

    2015-01-01

    Testing initially learned information before presenting new information has been shown to counteract the deleterious effects of proactive interference by segregating competing sources of information. The present experiments were conducted to demonstrate that testing can also have its effects in part by integrating competing information. Variations of classic A–B, A–D paired-associate learning paradigms were employed that included two lists of word pairs and a cued-recall test. Repeated pairs appeared in both lists (A–B, A–B), control pairs appeared in List 2 only (A–B, C–D), and changed pairs appeared with the same cue in both lists but with different responses (A–B, A–D). The critical manipulation was whether pairs were tested or restudied in an interpolated phase that occurred between Lists 1 and 2. On a final cued-recall test, participants recalled List 2 responses and then indicated when they recollected that responses had earlier changed between lists. The change recollection measure indexed the extent to which competing responses were integrated during List 2. Change was recollected more often for tested than for restudied pairs. Proactive facilitation was obtained in cued recall when change was recollected, whereas proactive interference was obtained when change was not recollected. These results provide evidence that testing counteracted proactive interference in part by making List 1 responses more accessible during List 2, thus promoting integration and increasing later recollection of change. These results have theoretical implications because they show that testing can counteract proactive interference by integrating or segregating competing information. PMID:25120241

  12. Testing can counteract proactive interference by integrating competing information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlheim, Christopher N

    2015-01-01

    Testing initially learned information before presenting new information has been shown to counteract the deleterious effects of proactive interference by segregating competing sources of information. The present experiments were conducted to demonstrate that testing can also have its effects in part by integrating competing information. Variations of classic A-B, A-D paired-associate learning paradigms were employed that included two lists of word pairs and a cued-recall test. Repeated pairs appeared in both lists (A-B, A-B), control pairs appeared in List 2 only (A-B, C-D), and changed pairs appeared with the same cue in both lists but with different responses (A-B, A-D). The critical manipulation was whether pairs were tested or restudied in an interpolated phase that occurred between Lists 1 and 2. On a final cued-recall test, participants recalled List 2 responses and then indicated when they recollected that responses had earlier changed between lists. The change recollection measure indexed the extent to which competing responses were integrated during List 2. Change was recollected more often for tested than for restudied pairs. Proactive facilitation was obtained in cued recall when change was recollected, whereas proactive interference was obtained when change was not recollected. These results provide evidence that testing counteracted proactive interference in part by making List 1 responses more accessible during List 2, thus promoting integration and increasing later recollection of change. These results have theoretical implications because they show that testing can counteract proactive interference by integrating or segregating competing information.

  13. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  14. Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-01-01

    Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

  15. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-04-01

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  17. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  18. Risk analysis with regard to nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1980-01-01

    The author discusses the following questions: why are risk analyses elaborated. How are they carried out and which problems may arise. Completeness problem, data, human factors, common-mode-failures, accident simulation. To give an idea of the applicability of the results of risk analyses the author deals with systems comparison and system optimization, maintenance and testing strategies, incidents and the course of accidents that have to be considered in designing technical safety measures for nuclear power plants. Finally, the author tries to enter into questions that might arise due to the effects risk analyses may create in the general public. (HSCH) [de

  19. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  20. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigelow, Tim S [ORNL

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  1. Proactive prevention in occupational safety and health: how to identify tomorrow's prevention priorities and preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauke, Angelika; Flaspöler, Eva; Reinert, Dietmar

    2018-04-17

    Global trends such as digitalisation, globalisation and demographic change are changing workplaces, and accordingly occupational safety and health (OSH) needs. To better prepare for the future and to foster proactive prevention, the German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV) established an OSH risk observatory (RO OSH). The RO OSH relies on an online survey and calls upon the expertise of labour inspectors. 398 labour inspectors participated in the first RO OSH enquiry. They rated developments with regard to their sector-specific relevance for OSH in the near future. The RO OSH also provides ideas for preventive measures that can be implemented by the German Social Accident Insurance Institutions. Work intensity, demographic aspects, and digitalisation play a major role for most or all sectors. However, familiar OSH issues such as musculoskeletal strain and noise also continue to be of major importance and require further consideration and specific solutions in prevention. For the DGUV, training and consulting bear great potential for proactive prevention in the above priority areas, e.g. by fostering a prevention culture and supporting companies in (psychosocial) risk assessment (also for mobile work). For instance, concepts for increasing physical activity at sedentary workplaces, and data security require continued research.

  2. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. The Role of Long-Term Memory in a Test of Visual Working Memory: Proactive Facilitation but No Proactive Interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberauer, Klaus; Awh, Edward; Sutterer, David W.

    2017-01-01

    We report 4 experiments examining whether associations in visual working memory are subject to proactive interference from long-term memory (LTM). Following a long-term learning phase in which participants learned the colors of 120 unique objects, a working memory (WM) test was administered in which participants recalled the precise colors of 3…

  4. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  5. Proactive personality and job performance: the role of job crafting and work engagement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Tims, M.; Derks, D.

    2012-01-01

    The article examines the role of proactive personality in predicting work engagement and job performance. On the basis of the literature on proactive personality and the job demands-resources model, we hypothesized that employees with a proactive personality would be most likely to craft their own

  6. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  7. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  8. Living PRAs [probabilistic risk analysis] made easier with IRRAS [Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1989-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is an integrated PRA software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using an IBM-compatible microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree and event tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. IRRAS contains all the capabilities and functions required to create, modify, reduce, and analyze event tree and fault tree models used in the analysis of complex systems and processes. IRRAS uses advanced graphic and analytical techniques to achieve the greatest possible realization of the potential of the microcomputer. When the needs of the user exceed this potential, IRRAS can call upon the power of the mainframe computer. The role of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory if the IRRAS program is that of software developer and interface to the user community. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February 1987 to prove the concept of performing this kind of analysis on microcomputers. This version contained many of the basic features needed for fault tree analysis and was received very well by the PRA community. Since the release of Version 1.0, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version is designated ''IRRAS 2.0''. Version 3.0 will contain all of the features required for efficient event tree and fault tree construction and analysis. 5 refs., 26 figs

  9. Big Data Risk Analysis for Rail Safety?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gulijk, Coen; Hughes, Peter; Figueres-Esteban, Miguel; Dacre, Marcus; Harrison, Chris; HUD; RSSB

    2015-01-01

    Computer scientists believe that the enormous amounts of data in the internet will unchain a management revolution of uncanny proportions. Yet, to date, the potential benefit of this revolution is scantily investigated for safety and risk management. This paper gives a brief overview of a research programme that investigates how the new internet-driven data-revolution could benefit safety and risk management for railway safety in the UK. The paper gives a brief overview the current activities...

  10. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Proactive infection control measures to prevent nosocomial transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Vincent Chi-Chung; Tai, Josepha Wai-Ming; Chen, Jonathan Hon-Kwan; So, Simon Yung-Chun; Ng, Wing-Chun; Hung, Ivan Fan-Ngan; Leung, Sally Sau-Man; Wong, Sally Cheuk-Ying; Chan, Tuen-Ching; Chan, Felix Hon-Wai; Ho, Pak-Leung; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2014-10-01

    The study describes a proactive infection control approach to prevent nosocomial transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) and tests if this approach is effective for controlling multiple-drug resistant organisms in a nonendemic setting. In response to the increasing prevalence of VRE in Hong Kong since 2011, we adopted a multifaceted assertive approach in our health care network. This included active surveillance culture, extensive contact tracing, directly observed hand hygiene in conscious patients before they received meals and medications, stringent hand hygiene and environmental cleanliness, and an immediate feedback antimicrobial stewardship program. We report the occurrence of VRE outbreaks in our hospital after institution of these measures and compared with the concurrent occurrence in other public hospitals in Hong Kong. Between July 1, 2011 and November 13, 2013, VRE was identified in 0.32% (50/15,851) of admission episodes by active surveillance culture. The risk of VRE carriage was three times higher in patients with a history of hospitalization outside our hospital networks in the past 3 months (0.56% vs. 0.17%; p = 0.001) compared with those who were not. Extensive contact tracing involving 3277 patient episodes was performed in the investigation for the 25 VRE index patients upon whom implementation of contact precautions was delayed (more than 48 hours of hospitalization). One episode of VRE outbreak was identified in our hospital network, compared with the 77 VRE outbreaks reported in the other hospital networks (controls) without these proactive infection control measures. Our multifaceted assertive proactive infection control approach can minimize the nosocomial transmission and outbreak of VRE in a nonendemic area. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Relevant dimensions for proactive environmental assessment of urban mobility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Alberto Soria Lara

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A reduction of negative environmental impacts in urban transportation (air pollution, energy consumption, etc. is thought to be crucial in promoting sustainable development outcomes in cities, however evidence shows that this objective is hardly achieved in practice. In the case of urban transport planning, the transition to sustainability requests that its performance must be assessed. This has originated important challenges for the academia in providing efficient assessment tools. As a response to these challenges, sustainability assessment has become a rapidly developing area associated with the family of impact assessment tools ((e.g. Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment. In recent years, many countries have conferred to sustainability assessment, and specifically to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA, an important and decisive role into their planning systems. The effectiveness of the traditional methods for evaluating urban transport plans/interventions (e.g. EIA, EAE, Cost-Benefit Analysis is contested as strongly argued by several academics. A key problem is that these methods currently focus too much on identifying environmental impacts that might happen rather than on finding ways of preventing them from happening. They are used reactively rather than proactively. Underlying this is the belief that traditional evaluation methods have difficulty guiding improvements in urban transport plans and projects in decision-making and their capacity to support technical decisions becomes limited. First, this is a consequence of the fact that the environmental assessment (EA process mainly includes EA-makers and they are not integrated enough in the transport planning process. Second, the used methods not always are the most suitable to identify ways of preventing potential impacts with respect to the particular nature of urban transportation. In seeking to answer these problems, the paper presents a strategy

  13. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foroogh Ghasemi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

  14. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  15. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

  16. The proactive management of rumor and gossip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, V E; Blakeley, J A

    1995-06-01

    Gossip and rumor are common forms of communication in the workplace. Consequently, nursing administrators are challenged to find ways to manage these grapevine activities. The authors present an analysis of gossip and rumor and discuss strategies for their prevention and control.

  17. Risk Analysis for the Different Consolidation Proposals

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    In parallel with the repairs in sector 34, improvements are planned to a number of systems, to allow safe detection of faults similar to the one which caused the incident of 19 September, and to limit the damage should a similar incident nonetheless occur. These include improved bus and quench detection systems, improved pressure relief for the insulating and beam vacuum systems, and improved anchoring of the SSS to the tunnel floor. Not all of the planned mitigations, however, may be fully implemented before the restart of the LHC in 2009. I will review the potential benefits of partial or complete implementation of each of the planned improvements, individually or together with others, and conversely the potential risks (consequences) of delayed implementation. I will also review the risks that remain even after the planned consolidation is complete. Considering all proposals and the different risks, I will comment on what would be the best strategy for consolidation, and on the strategy for operations unde...

  18. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  19. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-01-01

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage

  20. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  1. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  2. Fair market value: taking a proactive approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Richard A

    2008-04-01

    A valuation report assessing the fair market value of a contractual arrangement should include: A description of the company, entity, or circumstance being valued. Analysis of general economic conditions that are expected to affect the enterprise. Evaluation of economic conditions in the medical services industry. Explanation of the various valuation approaches that were considered. Documentation of key underlying assumptions, including revenue and expense projections, projected profit, and ROI.

  3. Proactive building simulations for early design support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben

    important design parameters that require the most attention when seeking to improve building performance. Fast metamodels facilitate immediate feedback on design changes and reduce time-consumption related to performance assessment. Ultimately, the work described in this thesis and on buildingdesign...... that relies on thousands of simulations representing the multidimensional design space. Interactive visualizations enable decision-makers to explore, in real-time, the vast design space and identify favorable solutions which satisfy the needs of different stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis helps reveal...

  4. Incorporating emergency evacuation planning, through human reliability analysis, in the risk management of industrial installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Isaac J.A. Luquetti; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Grecco, Claudio H.S. [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], Email: luquetti@ien.gov.br

    2009-07-01

    An industrial installation presents many risks in the form of the process hazards, such as fire, explosion, gas and radiation release. In these situations, workers may need to evacuate from the work environment as soon as possible. In this case, the emergency evacuation planning is a key element that involves an iterative process to identify the best evacuation routes and to estimate the time required to evacuate the area at risk. The mean aspects for a successful emergency evacuation are influenced by the type of human error and the severity of the initiator event. The aim of this paper is to present a methodological framework for the identification of the performance shaping factors and prediction of human error probabilities of the responsible by the emergency evacuation of the workers in an industrial installation, providing a proactive approach for the allocation of the human factors in the risk assessment of the industrial installation. (author)

  5. Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.

    1989-01-01

    This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

  6. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  7. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  8. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Testing protects against proactive interference in face-name learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Yana; McDermott, Kathleen B; Szpunar, Karl K

    2011-06-01

    Learning face-name pairings at a social function becomes increasingly more difficult the more individuals one meets. This phenomenon is attributable to proactive interference--the negative influence of prior learning on subsequent learning. Recent evidence suggests that taking a memory test can alleviate proactive interference in verbal list learning paradigms. We apply this technique to face-name pair learning. Participants studied four lists of 12 face-name pairings and either attempted to name the 12 faces just studied after every list or did not. Recall attempts after every list improved learning of the fourth list by over 100%. Moreover, no reduction in learning of face-name pairings occurred from list 1 to list 4 for participants who attempted to name studied faces between lists. These results suggest that testing oneself on the names of a group of new acquaintances before moving on to the next group is an effective mnemonic technique for social functions.

  10. Motor Preparation Disrupts Proactive Control in the Stop Signal Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuyi Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In a study of the stop signal task (SST we employed Bayesian modeling to compute the estimated likelihood of stop signal or P(Stop trial by trial and identified regional processes of conflict anticipation and response slowing. A higher P(Stop is associated with prolonged go trial reaction time (goRT—a form of sequential effect—and reflects proactive control of motor response. However, some individuals do not demonstrate a sequential effect despite similar go and stop success (SS rates. We posited that motor preparation may disrupt proactive control more in certain individuals than others. Specifically, the time interval between trial and go signal onset—the fore-period (FP—varies across trials and a longer FP is associated with a higher level of motor preparation and shorter goRT. Greater motor preparatory activities may disrupt proactive control. To test this hypothesis, we compared brain activations and Granger causal connectivities of 81 adults who demonstrated a sequential effect (SEQ and 35 who did not (nSEQ. SEQ and nSEQ did not differ in regional activations to conflict anticipation, motor preparation, goRT slowing or goRT speeding. In contrast, SEQ and nSEQ demonstrated different patterns of Granger causal connectivities. P(Stop and FP activations shared reciprocal influence in SEQ but FP activities Granger caused P(Stop activities unidirectionally in nSEQ, and FP activities Granger caused goRT speeding activities in nSEQ but not SEQ. These findings support the hypothesis that motor preparation disrupts proactive control in nSEQ and provide direct neural evidence for interactive go and stop processes.

  11. Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

    Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

  12. On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, Tony

    2010-01-01

    Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

  13. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  14. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... to improve the quality of biomass based fuels. Therefore, hydrogen supply and distribution chains will likely not only serve to fulfil the demands of refuelling, but may also be important for the wider electrical power and fuel industries. Based on an integrated hydrogen supply and distribution network...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  15. The role of delinquency, proactive aggression, psychopathy and behavioral school engagement in reported youth gang membership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Rebecca P; Huan, Vivien S; Chan, Wei Teng; Cheong, Siew Ann; Leaw, Jia Ning

    2015-06-01

    Given the robust positive association between gangs and crime, a better understanding of factors related to reported youth gang membership is critical and especially since youth in gangs are a universal concern. The present study investigated the role of delinquency, proactive aggression, psychopathy and behavioral school engagement in reported youth gang membership using a large sample of 1027 Singapore adolescents. Results from logistic regression showed that delinquency, proactive aggression, and behavioral school engagement were statistically significant risk factors for reported youth gang membership, and that psychopathy was not related to reported gang membership. Implications for prevention and intervention work with respect to youth gang membership were discussed. In particular, strengthening students' engagement with school and meaningful school-related activities and developing supportive teacher-student relationships are particularly important in working with young people with respect to prevention work. Additionally, the present study's theoretical and empirical contributions were also discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A proactive method for safety management in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecco, Claudio Henrique dos Santos; Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de; Santos, Isaac Antonio Luquetti dos

    2014-01-01

    Due to the modern approach to address the safety of nuclear facilities which highlights that these organizations must be able to assess and proactively manage their activities becomes increasingly important the need for instruments to evaluate working conditions. In this context, this work presents a proactive method of managing organizational safety, which has three innovative features: 1) the use of predictive indicators that provide current information on the performance of activities, allowing preventive actions and not just reactive in safety management, different from safety indicators traditionally used (reactive indicators) that are obtained after the occurrence of undesired events; 2) the adoption of resilience engineering approach in the development of indicators - indicators are based on six principles of resilience engineering: top management commitment, learning, flexibility, awareness, culture of justice and preparation for the problems; 3) the adoption of the concepts and properties of fuzzy set theory to deal with subjectivity and consistency of human trials in the evaluation of the indicators. The fuzzy theory is used primarily to map qualitative models of decision-making, and inaccurate representation methods. The results of this study aim an improvement in performance and safety in organizations. The method was applied in a radiopharmaceutical shipping sector of a nuclear facility. The results showed that the method is a good monitoring tool objectively and proactively of the working conditions of an organizational domain

  17. How to be proactive about interference: lessons from animal memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Anthony A; Katz, Jeffrey S; Ma, Wei Ji

    2012-05-01

    Processes of proactive interference were explored using the pigeon as a model system of memory. This study shows that proactive interference extends back in time at least 16 trials (and as many minutes), revealing a continuum of interference and providing a framework for studying memory. Pigeons were tested in a delayed same/different task containing trial-unique pictures. On interference trials, sample pictures from previous trials reappeared as test pictures on different trials. Proactive-interference functions showed greatest interference from the most recent trial and with the longer of two delays (10 s vs. 1 s). These interference functions are accounted for by a time-estimation model based on signal detection theory. The model predicts that accuracy at test is determined solely by the ratio of the elapsed time since the offset of the current-trial sample to the elapsed time since the offset of the interfering sample. Implications for comparing memory of different species and different types of memory (e.g., familiarity vs. recollection) are discussed.

  18. Implicit proactive interference, age, and automatic versus controlled retrieval strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikier, Simay; Yang, Lixia; Hasher, Lynn

    2008-05-01

    We assessed the extent to which implicit proactive interference results from automatic versus controlled retrieval among younger and older adults. During a study phase, targets (e.g., "ALLERGY") either were or were not preceded by nontarget competitors (e.g., "ANALOGY"). After a filled interval, the participants were asked to complete word fragments, some of which cued studied words (e.g., "A_L_ _GY"). Retrieval strategies were identified by the difference in response speed between a phase containing fragments that cued only new words and a phase that included a mix of fragments cuing old and new words. Previous results were replicated: Proactive interference was found in implicit memory, and the negative effects were greater for older than for younger adults. Novel findings demonstrate two retrieval processes that contribute to interference: an automatic one that is age invariant and a controlled process that can reduce the magnitude of the automatic interference effects. The controlled process, however, is used effectively only by younger adults. This pattern of findings potentially explains age differences in susceptibility to proactive interference.

  19. Optimism and proactive coping in relation to burnout among nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yuhsuan; Chan, Hsin-Ju

    2015-04-01

    The study investigated the three symptoms of burnout among hospital nurses and examined the buffering effects of optimism and proactive coping in relation to burnout. Nursing is a profession that can easily lead to burnout. Burnout has been one of the most investigated work outcomes in current research. Previous research has largely ignored the positive influence of individuals on job outcomes and has not tested a constructive framework that might facilitate interventions to prevent burnout. A cross-sectional survey of 314 staff nurses in general hospitals in Taiwan. Participants completed a set of questionnaires with demographic information. The findings suggested that higher levels of proactive coping behaviours and optimism were associated with lower levels of burnout. Optimism was found to have the strongest relationship with the decreased personal accomplishment of burnout. The findings of this study confirmed the importance of optimism and proactive coping in prevention of symptoms of burnout. The results of this study provided important recommendations regarding stress management interventions for health-care managers, nurses, psychologists and human resource staff in the reduction of burnout to promote mental health in an organisation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Prevention and control of zebra mussels: proactive and reactive strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claudi, R.

    1998-01-01

    Most plant people would agree that having zebra mussels in any raw water system is not desirable. System blockage, loss of heat transfer and other associated safety hazards are not pleasant to deal with. Therefore most industries strive to minimise the effect of infestation. Opinions differ as to how to do this most efficiently and economically. Some facilities are committed to preventing the settlement of veligers in their piping systems and on some of the external structures they consider critical. This is the proactive approach. Others allow settlement and only treat the system or surface after fouling has occurred. This is the reactive approach. Which is the best and most economical treatment will depend on the individual facility and sometimes on the individual system. The paper examines the different proactive and reactive strategies available to-date and how they are being used. It will also discuss some of the criteria for choosing a proactive vs. reactive approach and why the decision has to be made individually by each facility. (author)

  1. Prevention and control of zebra mussels: proactive and reactive strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claudi, R. [Ontario Hydro Nuclear, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Most plant people would agree that having zebra mussels in any raw water system is not desirable. System blockage, loss of heat transfer and other associated safety hazards are not pleasant to deal with. Therefore most industries strive to minimise the effect of infestation. Opinions differ as to how to do this most efficiently and economically. Some facilities are committed to preventing the settlement of veligers in their piping systems and on some of the externalstructures they consider critical. This is the proactive approach. Others allow settlement and only treat the system or surface after fouling has occurred. This is the reactive approach. Which is the best and most economical treatment will depend on the individual facility and sometimes on the individual system. The paper examines the different proactive and reactive strategies available to-date and how they are being used. It will also discuss some of the criteria for choosing a proactive vs. reactive approach and why the decision has to be made individually by each facility. (author)

  2. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  3. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  4. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  5. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  6. Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrinivich, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

  7. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

  8. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  9. HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

    1990-01-01

    In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

  10. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  11. WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraass, B.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  12. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  13. DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

  14. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  15. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  16. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  17. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  18. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  19. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  20. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  1. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  2. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  3. Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

    2013-07-01

    UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

  4. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2016-01-01

    In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

  5. Factor Structure of the Reactive-Proactive Aggression Questionnaire in Turkish Children and Gender, Grade-Level, and Socioeconomic Status Differences in Reactive and Proactive Aggression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uz Bas, Asli; Yurdabakan, Irfan

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate the factor structure of the Reactive-Proactive Aggression Questionnaire (RPQ) with Turkish children, and to investigate gender, grade-level, and socioeconomic status (SES) differences in reactive and proactive aggression. Participants consisted of 1,081 Turkish children (544 boys and 537 girls) aged 9 to 14…

  6. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

  7. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  8. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  9. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  10. Probabilistic risk analysis of Angra-1 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spivak, R.C.; Collussi, I.; Silva, M.C. da; Onusic Junior, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first phase of probabilistic study for safety analysis and operational analysis of Angra-1 reactor is presented. The study objectives and uses are: to support decisions about safety problems; to identify operational and/or project failures; to amplify operator qualification tests to include accidents in addition to project base; to provide informations to be used in development and/or review of operation procedures in emergency, test and maintenance procedures; to obtain experience for data collection about abnormal accurences; utilization of study results for training operators; and training of evaluation and reliability techniques for the personnel of CNEN and FURNAS. (M.C.K.) [pt

  11. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  12. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  13. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  14. When in doubt, seize the day? Security values, prosocial values, and proactivity under ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Adam M; Rothbard, Nancy P

    2013-09-01

    Researchers have suggested that both ambiguity and values play important roles in shaping employees' proactive behaviors, but have not theoretically or empirically integrated these factors. Drawing on theories of situational strength and values, we propose that ambiguity constitutes a weak situation that strengthens the relationship between the content of employees' values and their proactivity. A field study of 204 employees and their direct supervisors in a water treatment plant provided support for this contingency perspective. Ambiguity moderated the relationship between employees' security and prosocial values and supervisor ratings of proactivity. Under high ambiguity, security values predicted lower proactivity, whereas prosocial values predicted higher proactivity. Under low ambiguity, values were not associated with proactivity. We replicated these findings in a laboratory experiment with 232 participants in which we measured proactivity objectively as initiative taken to correct errors: Participants with strong security values were less proactive, and participants with strong prosocial values were more proactive, but only when performance expectations were ambiguous. We discuss theoretical implications for research on proactivity, values, and ambiguity and uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  15. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  16. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

  17. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  18. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  19. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

  20. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUAN LAGUARDIA

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  1. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  2. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  3. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  4. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  5. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  6. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  7. Evolving from reactive to proactive medicine: community lead (Pb) and clinical disparities in pre- and post-Katrina New Orleans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Howard W; Gonzales, Christopher; Powell, Eric; Mielke, Paul W

    2014-07-21

    In 2012 the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) set the blood Pb reference value at ≥5 µg/dL. Clinical analysis of children's blood Pb levels is the common way to diagnose environmental Pb contamination, and intervention ensues with education and household dust cleanup. Recent review indicates that education and household dust cleanup are not effective at reducing children's Pb exposure. Here we review mapping environmental Pb and children's blood Pb response as an alternative approach for proactive Pb dust intervention. New Orleans was divided into a high (≥100 mg/kg) and low (37 times larger than allowed on interior residential floor environments. Environmental Pb dust is decreasing because of the transfer of large quantities of low Pb soil into selected communities. City-scale soil Pb mapping is an alternative diagnostic tool that provides information for planning proactive medicine to prevent clinical Pb exposure in the first place.

  8. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  9. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  10. Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

  11. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  12. Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

  13. Environmental management throughout the mining cycle: a proactive and integrated approach - 5288

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacroix, E.; Rayot, V.; Descostes, M.; Luquet de Saint Germain, V.; Recoche, G.

    2015-01-01

    Industrial activities such as mining generate environmental impacts. The purpose of AREVA Mines is to avoid and/or to minimize them as much as possible in order to improve its integration into its environment. In this article AREVA environmental strategy is illustrated by 3 case studies: -) project and exploration works in Mongolia, -) the post-mining remediation in Mongolia and Kazakhstan, and -) the closing of the Bellezane (France) site. In conclusion, AREVA environmental strategy for its mining activities is: -) assuming a proactive approach to prevent potential risks and impacts on environment, -) developing a scientific and detailed knowledge of the impacts on environment and implementing appropriate mitigation measures, -) monitoring the environment at the earliest stages of the mining cycle, -) investing in research and development to improve our practices, and -) taking into account the concerns and the knowledge of our stakeholders, and the social and cultural aspects directly linked to the site environment

  14. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  15. THE APIPHYTOTHERAPY WITH PROACTIVATOR IN THE VETERINARY DERMATOLOGY AND SURGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. SICEANU

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this clinical study consisted in evaluation of the therapeutic effects of the propolis extract used in different disorders at company animals, thus being improved the palette of the apitherapeutical products used in veterinary purposes. The experiments were carried out on company animals (two experimental groups during the 2007-2008 period, in the frame of the Veterinary Medicine Faculty – Bucharest and the University - Spiru Haret, at the veterinary departments: Parasitology, Dermatology and Surgery. The raw propolis was collected from the bee colonies belonging to the Institute of the Beekeeping Research & Development– Bucharest and the apiphytotherapeutical product based on propolis was obtained in the Apitherapy sector of the same Institute. In a first stage were obtained the antiparasite, dermatological and surgical veterinary product PROACTIVATOR based on propolis alcoholic extract and Aloe vera gel. The experiments consisted in administration of the obtained preparation in different disorders on the experimental groups as: dermatological (plagues, chemical and physical burns, parasitological (extern parasites: scabies supra infected or not and in veterinary surgery (as a protective layer applied on the sutured plague. In dermatologic disorders the effects of the PROACTIVATOR product were established by way of clinical periodical examinations until the total recover were done. In external parasites and connected disorders it was established the repellent or killing effect of the preparation on the infestation with parasites and the degree of control in the correlated infections. In skin tissue surgery it was established the cicatrising effect in sutured plagues and the anaesthesic local effect. The established of the studied preparation efficiency was similar as those used in classical treatments with synthesis products. The advantage of the utilization of PROACTIVATOR eliminates the toxic and cumulative effects

  16. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-01-01

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

  17. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  19. Effectiveness of proactive telephone counselling for smoking cessation in parents: Study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bricker Jonathan B

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking is the world's fourth most common risk factor for disease, the leading preventable cause of death, and it is associated with tremendous social costs. In the Netherlands, the smoking prevalence rate is high. A total of 27.7% of the population over age 15 years smokes. In addition to the direct advantages of smoking cessation for the smoker, parents who quit smoking may also decrease their children's risk of smoking initiation. Methods/Design A randomized controlled trial will be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of proactive telephone counselling to increase smoking cessation rates among smoking parents. A total of 512 smoking parents will be proactively recruited through their children's primary schools and randomly assigned to either proactive telephone counselling or a control condition. Proactive telephone counselling will consist of up to seven counsellor-initiated telephone calls (based on cognitive-behavioural skill building and Motivational Interviewing, distributed over a period of three months. Three supplementary brochures will also be provided. In the control condition, parents will receive a standard brochure to aid smoking cessation. Assessments will take place at baseline, three months after start of the intervention (post-measurement, and twelve months after start of the intervention (follow-up measurement. Primary outcome measures will include sustained abstinence between post-measurement and follow-up measurement and 7-day point prevalence abstinence and 24-hours point prevalence abstinence at both post- and follow-up measurement. Several secondary outcome measures will also be included (e.g., smoking intensity, smoking policies at home. In addition, we will evaluate smoking-related cognitions (e.g., attitudes towards smoking, social norms, self-efficacy, intention to smoke in 9-12 year old children of smoking parents. Discussion This study protocol describes the design of a randomized

  20. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  1. From proactive personality to organizational citizenship behavior: mediating role of harmony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Yiqun; Cheung, Fanny M

    2010-06-01

    The objective of the present study was to examine the moderating role of interpersonal harmony in the relation of proactive personality with organizational citizenship behavior. 158 employees in Chinese state-owned companies completed the Proactive Personality Scale (Bateman & Crant, 1993), Harmony scale, and Organizational Citizenship Behavior Questionnaire. Proactive personality had insignificant correlation with job dedication. The correlation between interpersonal facilitation and proactive personality was significant but quite low. Results of the hierarchical regression analyses indicated that when demographic variables were controlled, Harmony had significant moderating effects on the relations of proactive behavior and job dedication/interpersonal facilitation. In the high Harmony group, the correlation between proactive personality and organizational citizenship behavior was significant; whereas in the low Harmony group, this correlation was not significant.

  2. Fire risk analysis in ITER tritium building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lignini, Franck; Uzan-Elbez, Joelle; Girard, Jean-Philippe; Porfiri, Maria Teresa; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, Lina

    2005-01-01

    Events, such as fire, have been considered in ITER documentation of low probability and a general approach has been defined in [Technical basis for the ITER final design, EDA Documentation Series I, No. 22, IAEA, Vienna, 2001] to be developed later for the ITER specific site. It was said that 'these hazards will be treated according to the industrial safety regulations and practices of the host country'. In the framework of studies for the European ITER site in Cadarache, an assessment of fire hazard has been done in order to ensure compliance with French safety requirements. In this report, a summary of existing laws is presented and an example of the deterministic approach to be followed for the preliminary safety report (PSR) is given on the analysis of tritium building design

  3. DORIAN, Bayes Method Plant Age Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    2002-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternative hypothesized 'aging models' (i.e., possible trends) along prior probabilities indicating the subject probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop a posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5. and 95. percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities. 2 - Method of solution: DORIAN carries out a Bayesian analysis of failure data and a prior distribution on a time-dependent failure rate to obtain a posterior distribution on the failure rate. The form of the time-dependent failure rate is arbitrary, because DORIAN approximates the form by a step-function, constant within specified time intervals. Similarly, the parameters may have any prior distribution, because DORIAN uses a discrete distribution to approximate this. Likewise, the database file produced by DORIAN approximates the entire range of possible failure rates or outage durations developed by means of a discrete probability distribution containing no more than 20 distinct values with their probabilities. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Prior distribution is discrete with up to 25 values. Up to 60 times are accommodated in the discrete time history

  4. Proactive materials aging management and multi-layered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Tetsuo

    2009-01-01

    Long term operation of NPP has been receiving a great concern based upon the plant operation experiences and progressive improvement in countermeasures and mitigations. At the same time of this LTO movement, proactive materials aging management is also receiving a great concern to realize the LTO in NPP. Recent PMDM activities in Japan as well as some international one are reviewed and a necessity of an international cooperation is emphasized in relation to reliable maintenance performance connected from the top of the organization to operators and maintenance engineers at plant sites. (author)

  5. Proactive restoration of slow-failures in optical networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siracusa, Domenico; Pederzolli, Federico; Salvadori, Elio

    2014-01-01

    Current optical networks, while offering outstanding reliability, still suffer from occasional failures. A resource-efficient procedure to handle these failures in un-protected scenarios is to perform restoration, i.e., to dynamically setup a backup lightpath after the primary one stops working......, which leads to traffic losses while such operation completes. In this paper we propose a technique, applicable to optical networks with centralized control, to better handle failures with slow transients. The idea is to proactively perform the backup lightpath's setup, triggered by either a fixed...

  6. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  7. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

    2018-04-21

    Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

  9. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

    2018-04-06

    An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

  11. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  13. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  14. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  15. Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

    CERN Document Server

    Willmot, Gordon E

    2017-01-01

    This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

  16. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  17. Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

    1987-01-01

    The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

  18. Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sallé

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

  19. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  1. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  2. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

    1984-05-01

    Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

  4. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  5. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  6. Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  8. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  9. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  10. Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

  11. A Proactive Recommendation System for Writing in the Internet Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Muñoz

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available With the use of the computers, the task of writing is intertwined with the task of searching for information that can be relevant for the document that is being written, however very little research has been done to understand how the two tasks intertwine. In this paper we present an initial attempt to develop a model of writing and information seeking with computers and to develop helpful software that can improve the quality of the information searched and the written paper. Proactive Recommendation System (PRS can relieve authors from explicit searching by means of automatically searching, retrieving and recommending information relevant to the text currently being written, and therefore PRS can be helpful to writers. However it is also possible that there are some moments during writing in which presenting proactive information can be an interruption rather than a help. In our research, we have used the PRS IntelliGent™ to investigate its impact in the different stages of writing. We found that when IntelliGent™ offers relevant information the time to task completion is shorter and the quality of the written product increases compared with the control situations in which writers have to look actively for information. We discuss these findings in the context of developing models and tools that integrate searching and writing processes when using computers as the writing environment.

  12. The PROactive innovative conceptual framework on physical activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbels, Fabienne; de Jong, Corina; Drost, Ellen; Elberse, Janneke; Feridou, Chryssoula; Jacobs, Laura; Rabinovich, Roberto; Frei, Anja; Puhan, Milo A.; de Boer, Willem I.; van der Molen, Thys; Williams, Kate; Pinnock, Hillary; Troosters, Thierry; Karlsson, Niklas; Kulich, Karoly; Rüdell, Katja; Brindicci, Caterina; Higenbottam, Tim; Troosters, Thierry; Dobbels, Fabienne; Decramer, Marc; Tabberer, Margaret; Rabinovich, Roberto A; MacNee, William; Vogiatzis, Ioannis; Polkey, Michael; Hopkinson, Nick; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Puhan, Milo; Frei, Anja; van der Molen, Thys; de Jong, Corina; de Boer, Pim; Jarrod, Ian; McBride, Paul; Kamel, Nadia; Rudell, Katja; Wilson, Frederick J.; Ivanoff, Nathalie; Kulich, Karoly; Glendenning, Alistair; Karlsson, Niklas X.; Corriol-Rohou, Solange; Nikai, Enkeleida; Erzen, Damijan

    2014-01-01

    Although physical activity is considered an important therapeutic target in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), what “physical activity” means to COPD patients and how their perspective is best measured is poorly understood. We designed a conceptual framework, guiding the development and content validation of two patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments on physical activity (PROactive PRO instruments). 116 patients from four European countries with diverse demographics and COPD phenotypes participated in three consecutive qualitative studies (63% male, age mean±sd 66±9 years, 35% Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage III–IV). 23 interviews and eight focus groups (n = 54) identified the main themes and candidate items of the framework. 39 cognitive debriefings allowed the clarity of the items and instructions to be optimised. Three themes emerged, i.e. impact of COPD on amount of physical activity, symptoms experienced during physical activity, and adaptations made to facilitate physical activity. The themes were similar irrespective of country, demographic or disease characteristics. Iterative rounds of appraisal and refinement of candidate items resulted in 30 items with a daily recall period and 34 items with a 7-day recall period. For the first time, our approach provides comprehensive insight on physical activity from the COPD patients’ perspective. The PROactive PRO instruments’ content validity represents the pivotal basis for empirically based item reduction and validation. PMID:25034563

  13. Reducing proactive aggression through non-invasive brain stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuhmann, Teresa; Lobbestael, Jill; Arntz, Arnoud; Brugman, Suzanne; Sack, Alexander T.

    2015-01-01

    Aggressive behavior poses a threat to human collaboration and social safety. It is of utmost importance to identify the functional mechanisms underlying aggression and to develop potential interventions capable of reducing dysfunctional aggressive behavior already at a brain level. We here experimentally shifted fronto-cortical asymmetry to manipulate the underlying motivational emotional states in both male and female participants while assessing the behavioral effects on proactive and reactive aggression. Thirty-two healthy volunteers received either anodal transcranial direct current stimulation to increase neural activity within right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, or sham stimulation. Aggressive behavior was measured with the Taylor Aggression Paradigm. We revealed a general gender effect, showing that men displayed more behavioral aggression than women. After the induction of right fronto-hemispheric dominance, proactive aggression was reduced in men. This study demonstrates that non-invasive brain stimulation can reduce aggression in men. This is a relevant and promising step to better understand how cortical brain states connect to impulsive actions and to examine the causal role of the prefrontal cortex in aggression. Ultimately, such findings could help to examine whether the brain can be a direct target for potential supportive interventions in clinical settings dealing with overly aggressive patients and/or violent offenders. PMID:25680991

  14. Escaping the recent past: which stimulus dimensions influence proactive interference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Kimberly S; Berman, Marc G; Jonides, John; Lustig, Cindy

    2013-07-01

    Proactive interference occurs when information from the past disrupts current processing and is a major source of confusion and errors in short-term memory (STM; Wickens, Born, & Allen, Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 2:440-445, 1963). The present investigation examines potential boundary conditions for interference, testing the hypothesis that potential competitors must be similar along task-relevant dimensions to influence proactive interference effects. We manipulated both the type of task being completed (Experiments 1, 2, and 3) and dimensions of similarity irrelevant to the current task (Experiments 4 and 5) to determine how the recent presentation of a probe item would affect the speed with which participants could reject that item. Experiments 1, 2, and 3 contrasted STM judgments, which require temporal information, with semantic and perceptual judgments, for which temporal information is irrelevant. In Experiments 4 and 5, task-irrelevant information (perceptual similarity) was manipulated within the recent probes task. We found that interference from past items affected STM task performance but did not affect performance in semantic or perceptual judgment tasks. Conversely, similarity along a nominally irrelevant perceptual dimension did not affect the magnitude of interference in STM tasks. Results are consistent with the view that items in STM are represented by noisy codes consisting of multiple dimensions and that interference occurs when items are similar to each other and, thus, compete along the dimensions relevant to target selection.

  15. Proactive Traffic Information Control in Emergency Evacuation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengfeng Huang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic demand in emergency evacuation is usually too large to be effectively managed with reactive traffic information control methods. These methods adapt to the road traffic passively by publishing real-time information without consideration of the routing behavior feedback produced by evacuees. Other remedy measures have to be prepared in case of nonrecurring congestion under these methods. To use the network capacity fully to mitigate near-future evacuation traffic congestion, we propose proactive traffic information control (PTIC model. Based on the mechanism between information and routing behavior feedback, this model can change the route choice of evacuees in advance by dissipating strategic traffic information. Generally, the near-future traffic condition is difficult to accurately predict because it is uncertain in evacuation. Assume that the value of traffic information obeys certain distribution within a range, and then real-time traffic information may reflect the most-likely near-future traffic condition. Unlike the real-time information, the proactive traffic information is a selection within the range to achieve a desired level of the road network performance index (total system travel time. In the aspect of the solution algorithm, differential equilibrium decomposed optimization (D-EDO is proposed to compare with other heuristic methods. A field study on a road network around a large stadium is used to validate the PTIC.

  16. The PROactive innovative conceptual framework on physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbels, Fabienne; de Jong, Corina; Drost, Ellen; Elberse, Janneke; Feridou, Chryssoula; Jacobs, Laura; Rabinovich, Roberto; Frei, Anja; Puhan, Milo A; de Boer, Willem I; van der Molen, Thys; Williams, Kate; Pinnock, Hillary; Troosters, Thierry; Karlsson, Niklas; Kulich, Karoly; Rüdell, Katja

    2014-11-01

    Although physical activity is considered an important therapeutic target in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), what "physical activity" means to COPD patients and how their perspective is best measured is poorly understood. We designed a conceptual framework, guiding the development and content validation of two patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments on physical activity (PROactive PRO instruments). 116 patients from four European countries with diverse demographics and COPD phenotypes participated in three consecutive qualitative studies (63% male, age mean±sd 66±9 years, 35% Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage III-IV). 23 interviews and eight focus groups (n = 54) identified the main themes and candidate items of the framework. 39 cognitive debriefings allowed the clarity of the items and instructions to be optimised. Three themes emerged, i.e. impact of COPD on amount of physical activity, symptoms experienced during physical activity, and adaptations made to facilitate physical activity. The themes were similar irrespective of country, demographic or disease characteristics. Iterative rounds of appraisal and refinement of candidate items resulted in 30 items with a daily recall period and 34 items with a 7-day recall period. For the first time, our approach provides comprehensive insight on physical activity from the COPD patients' perspective. The PROactive PRO instruments' content validity represents the pivotal basis for empirically based item reduction and validation. ©ERS 2014.

  17. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  18. Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

    2017-05-01

    The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

  19. Practical Aspects of the Use of Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Tool in The Risk Management of Pediatric Emergency Department: The Scrutiny in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasamin Molavi-Taleghani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The Emergency Department is one of the most challenging wards of the hospital for studying patient safety and the prevention of treatment errors is the basic rule in the quality of health care. The present study was conducted to evaluate the selected risk processes of Pediatric Emergency of Qaem Educational Hospital in Mashhad by the Healthcare Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (HFMEA methodology. Materials and Methods: A mixed method was used to analyze failure modes and their effects with HFMEA. Five high-risk processes of the Pediatric Emergency were identified and analyzed. To classify failure modes, nursing errors in clinical management model; for classifying factors affecting error, the approved model by the United Kingdom National Health System; and for determining solutions for improvement, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving was used. Results: In 5 selected processes, 28 steps, 80 sub-processes and 254 potential failure modes were identified with HFMEA. Thirty-seven (14.5% failure modes as high-risk errors were detected and transferred to the decision tree. The most and the least failure modes were placed in the categories of care errors as 62.3%, and knowledge and skill as 8.1% respectively. Also, 23.6% of preventive measures were in the category of human resource management strategy. Conclusion: Using the proactive method of HFMEA for identifying the possible failure of treatment procedures, determining the effective cause on each failure mode and proposing the improvement strategies, has high efficiency and effectiveness.

  20. General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

    1995-01-01

    This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

  1. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fournier Susan

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

  3. Branding and the Risk Management Imperative

    OpenAIRE

    Fournier Susan; Srinivasan Shuba

    2018-01-01

    In an increasingly risky socioeconomic environment, management needs to proactively consider brand-related risks. To understand brands as tools for risk management, they need to understand four types of brand risk: brand reputation risk, brand dilution risk, brand cannibalization risk and brand stretch risk.

  4. Association of a Proactive Swallowing Rehabilitation Program With Feeding Tube Placement in Patients Treated for Pharyngeal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajmani, Gaurav S; Nocon, Cheryl C; Brockstein, Bruce E; Campbell, Nicholas P; Kelly, Amy B; Allison, Jamie; Bhayani, Mihir K

    2018-04-19

    A proactive speech and language pathology (SLP) program is an important component of the multidisciplinary care of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Swallowing rehabilitation can reduce the rate of feeding tube placement, thereby significantly improving quality of life. To evaluate the initiation of a proactive SLP rehabilitation program at a single institution and its association with rates of feeding tube placement and dietary intake in patients with HNSCC. Cohort study at a tertiary care and referral center for patients with HNSCC serving the northern Chicago region. Patients were treated for squamous cell carcinomas of the hypopharynx, oropharynx, and nasopharynx from 2004 to 2015 with radiation or chemoradiation therapy in the definitive or adjuvant setting. Patients who received less than 5000 cGy radiation or underwent reirradiation were excluded. A proactive SLP program for patients with HNSCC was initiated in 2011. Study cohorts were divided into 2 groups: 2004 through 2010 and 2011 through 2015. Primary outcome variables were SLP referral placement and timing of the referral. Secondary outcomes were feeding tube placement and ability to tolerate any oral intake. A total of 254 patients met inclusion criteria (135 before and 119 after implementation of SLP program; median age, 60 years [range, 14-94 years]; 77% male). With the initiation of a proactive SLP program, pretreatment evaluations increased from 29 (21.5%) to 70 (58.8%; risk ratio [RR], 2.74; 95% CI, 1.92-3.91), and rate of referral overall at any time increased from 60.0% to 79.8% (RR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13-1.57). Feeding tube placement rates decreased from 45.9% (n = 62) to 29.4% (n = 35; RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.46-0.89). Among patients receiving a swallow evaluation, feeding tube requirements were less frequent for those receiving a pretreatment evaluation (31 of 99 [31%]) than for those referred during (11 of 18 [61%]) or after (38 of 59 [64%]) treatment. The rate

  5. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  6. The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

    2013-01-01

    Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

  7. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  8. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  9. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  11. Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, M.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

  12. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  13. Computer code for general analysis of radon risks (GARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.

    1984-09-01

    This document presents a computer model for general analysis of radon risks that allow the user to specify a large number of possible models with a small number of simple commands. The model is written in a version of BASIC which conforms closely to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) definition for minimal BASIC and thus is readily modified for use on a wide variety of computers and, in particular, microcomputers. Model capabilities include generation of single-year life tables from 5-year abridged data, calculation of multiple-decrement life tables for lung cancer for the general population, smokers, and nonsmokers, and a cohort lung cancer risk calculation that allows specification of level and duration of radon exposure, the form of the risk model, and the specific population assumed at risk. 36 references, 8 figures, 7 tables

  14. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  15. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  16. Cancer risk factors in Korean news media: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kye, Su Yeon; Kwon, Jeong Hyun; Kim, Yong-Chan; Shim, Minsun; Kim, Jee Hyun; Cho, Hyunsoon; Jung, Kyu Won; Park, Keeho

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the news coverage of cancer risk factors in Korea. This study aimed to examine how the news media encompasses a wide array of content regarding cancer risk factors and related cancer sites, and investigate whether news coverage of cancer risk factors is congruent with the actual prevalence of the disease. A content analysis was conducted on 1,138 news stories covered during a 5-year period between 2008 and 2012. The news stories were selected from nationally representative media in Korea. Information was collected about cancer risk factors and cancer sites. Of various cancer risk factors, occupational and environmental exposures appeared most frequently in the news. Breast cancer was mentioned the most in relation to cancer sites. Breast, cervical, prostate, and skin cancer were overrepresented in the media in comparison to incidence and mortality cases, whereas lung, thyroid, liver, and stomach cancer were underrepresented. To our knowledge, this research is the first investigation dealing with news coverage about cancer risk factors in Korea. The study findings show occupational and environmental exposures are emphasized more than personal lifestyle factors; further, more prevalent cancers in developed countries have greater media coverage, not reflecting the realities of the disease. The findings may help health journalists and other health storytellers to develop effective ways to communicate cancer risk factors.

  17. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  18. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  19. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  20. Traffic-Adaptive Proactive Sp ectrum Handoff Strategy for Graded Secondary Users in Cognitive Radio Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lei; SONG Tiecheng; WU Ming; BAO Xu; GUO Jie; HU Jing

    2015-01-01

    In order to meet diff erent delay require-ments of various communication services in Cognitive ra-dio (CR) networks, Secondary users (SUs) are divided into two classes according to the priority of accessing to spec-trum in this paper. Based on the proactive spectrum hand-off scheme, the Preemptive resume priority (PRP) M/G/1 queueing is used to characterize multiple spectrum hand-off s under two diff erent spectrum handoff strategies. The traffic-adaptive spectrum handoff strategy is proposed for graded SUs so as to minimize the average cumulative hand-off delay. Simulation results not only verify that our theo-retical analysis is valid, but also show that the strategy we proposed can reduce the average cumulative handoff delay evidently. The eff ect of service rate on the proposed spec-trum switching point and the admissible access region are provided.