Zhang, B.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2013-01-01
We propose an efficient pricing method for arithmetic and geometric Asian options under exponential Lévy processes based on Fourier cosine expansions and Clenshaw–Curtis quadrature. The pricing method is developed for both European style and American-style Asian options and for discretely and
A highly efficient pricing method for European-style options based on Shannon wavelets
L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)
2017-01-01
textabstractIn the search for robust, accurate and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we present here the SWIFT method (Shannon Wavelets Inverse Fourier Technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative
Zhang, B.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2011-01-01
We propose an efficient pricing method for arithmetic, and geometric, Asian options under Levy processes, based on Fourier cosine expansions and Clenshaw–Curtis quadrature. The pricing method is developed for both European–style and American–style Asian options, and for discretely and continuously
Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo
2018-01-01
This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....
Heterogeneity and option pricing
Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram
2000-01-01
An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.
The Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
This paper considers the valuation of European style derivatives with payoffs depending on both a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. The model has the attractive feature that it is based on observable market quantities which makes it very easy to calibrate. A closed form solution is derived...... for the price of the correlation derivative known as the traffic light option under lognormality assumptions for the underlying processes. A pricing approach for more general payoffs is presented, and an illustration is performed with Monte Carlo simulation by the pricing of a specific hybrid derivative...
Pricing American and Asian Options
Pat Muldowney
2015-01-01
An analytic method for pricing American call options is provided; followed by an empirical method for pricing Asian call options. The methodology is the pricing theory presented in "A Modern Theory of Random Variation", by Patrick Muldowney, 2012.
Rodriguez, J.C.
2007-01-01
If managers are reluctant to fully adjust dividends to changes in earnings, stock returns and changes in the dividend yield will tend to be negatively correlated. When this is the case, stock returns will exhibit positive autocorrelation, or mo- mentum. This paper studies the pricing of options in
Some topics in mathematical finance: Asian basket option pricing, Optimal investment strategies
Diallo, Ibrahima
2010-01-01
This thesis presents the main results of my research in the field of computational finance and portfolios optimization. We focus on pricing Asian basket options and portfolio problems in the presence of inflation with stochastic interest rates.In Chapter 2, we concentrate upon the derivation of bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework.We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach f...
Option price and market instability
Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao
2017-04-01
An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.
Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing
Anderluh, J.H.M.
2007-01-01
The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.
Option Pricing using Realized Volatility
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stentoft, Lars Peter
dynamics to be used for option pricing purposes in this framework, and we show that our model explains some of the mispricings found when using traditional option pricing models based on interdaily data. We then show explicitly that a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model with Normal...... Inverse Gaussian distributed innovations is the corresponding benchmark model when only daily data is used. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis using stock options for three large American companies, and we show that in all cases our model performs significantly better than the corresponding...... benchmark model estimated on return data alone. Hence the paper provides evidence on the value of using high frequency data for option pricing purposes....
A comprehensive method for exotic option pricing
Rossella Agliardi
2010-01-01
This work illustrates how several new pricing formulas for exotic options can be derived within a Levy framework by employing a unique pricing expression. Many existing pricing formulas of the traditional Gaussian model are obtained as a by-product.
Analytic American Option Pricing and Applications
Sbuelz, A.
2003-01-01
I use a convenient value breakdown in order to obtain analytic solutions for finitematurity American option prices.Such a barrier-option-based breakdown yields an analytic lower bound for the American option price, which is as price-tight as the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) analytic value proxy for short and medium maturities and exhibits good convergence to the Merton (1973) perpetual option price for large maturities.
Analytic American Option Pricing and Applications
Sbuelz, A.
2003-01-01
I use a convenient value breakdown in order to obtain analytic solutions for finitematurity American option prices.Such a barrier-option-based breakdown yields an analytic lower bound for the American option price, which is as price-tight as the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) analytic value proxy
Model Calibration in Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre Loerx
2012-04-01
Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.
Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian
Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra
2014-12-01
The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.
Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘鸿雁; 张维
2003-01-01
The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk-averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.
Fourier and wavelet option pricing methods
S.C. Maree (Stef); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis); M.A.H. Dempster; J. Kanniainen (Juho); J. Keane (John); E. Vynckier (Erik)
2018-01-01
textabstractIn this overview chapter, we will discuss the use of exponentially converging option pricing techniques for option valuation. We will focus on the pricing of European options, and they are the basic instruments within a calibration procedure when fitting the parameters in asset dynamics.
American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ping LI
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.
Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.
2017-12-01
Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.
Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns
Boes, M.J.
2006-01-01
Chapter 2 gives an overview of the literature that is directly related to the topics studied in this thesis. In Chapter 3 the impact of overnight periods on option prices is examined by estimating an option pricing model that takes overnight closures of exchanges explicitly into account. Chapter 4
Monte Carlo methods for pricing financial options
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
traded by financial institutions, fund managers and corporate treasurers in the over the counter market. Options can often be ..... (under which discounted security price processes are martingales). This corresponds to ..... However, it requires explicit knowledge of option prices at all states of the Markov process and hence is ...
FTR-option formulation and pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar
2009-01-01
Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)
The Pricing of Foreign Currency Futures Options
Chang Mo Ahn
1996-01-01
We derive semi-closed form solutions for the forward and futures exchange rates, European foreign currency options, currency forward options, and currency futures options when the domestic and foreign interest rate movements follow mean reverting diffusion processes. These solutions are consistent with the Black-Scholes option formula so that they can be easily applied. The impact of interest rate uncertainty on theoretical prices of currency futures options is too significant to be neglected.
Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pierangelo Ciurlia
2012-01-01
Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.
Compound Option Pricing under Fuzzy Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiandong Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Considering the uncertainty of a financial market includes two aspects: risk and vagueness; in this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the imprecise input parameters (interest rate and volatility. We present the fuzzy price of compound option by fuzzing the interest and volatility in Geske’s compound option pricing formula. For each α, the α-level set of fuzzy prices is obtained according to the fuzzy arithmetics and the definition of fuzzy-valued function. We apply a defuzzification method based on crisp possibilistic mean values of the fuzzy interest rate and fuzzy volatility to obtain the crisp possibilistic mean value of compound option price. Finally, we present a numerical analysis to illustrate the compound option pricing under fuzzy environment.
Essay on Option Pricing, Hedging and Calibration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
da Silva Ribeiro, André Manuel
Quantitative finance is concerned about applying mathematics to financial markets.This thesis is a collection of essays that study different problems in this field: How efficient are option price approximations to calibrate a stochastic volatilitymodel? (Chapter 2) How different is the discretely...... of dynamics? (Chapter 5) How can we formulate a simple free-arbitrage model to price correlationswaps? (Chapter 6) A summary of the work presented in this thesis: Approximation Behooves Calibration In this paper we show that calibration based on an expansion approximation for option prices in the Heston...... stochastic volatility model gives stable, accurate, and fast results for S&P500-index option data over the period 2005 to 2009. Discretely Sampled Variance Options: A Stochastic Approximation Approach In this paper, we expand Drimus and Farkas (2012) framework to price variance options on discretely sampled...
Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Tamidy
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility
Exotic Options: a Chooser Option and its Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Financial instruments traded in the markets and investors’ situation in such markets are getting more and more complex. This leads to more complex derivative structures used for hedging that are harder to analyze and which risk is harder managed. Because of the complexity of these instruments, the basic characteristics of many exotic options may sometimes be not clearly understood. Most scientific studies have been focused on developing models for pricing various types of exotic options, but it is important to study their unique characteristics and to understand them correctly in order to use them in proper market situations. The paper examines main aspects of options, emphasizing the variety of exotic options and their place in financial markets and risk management process. As the exact valuation of exotic options is quite difficult, the article deals with the theoretical and practical aspects of pricing of chooser options that suggest a broad range of usage and application in different market conditions. The calculations made in the article showed that the price of the chooser is closely correlated with the choice time and low correlated with its strike price. So the first mentioned factor should be taken into consideration when making appropriate hedging and investing decisions.
A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing
Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas
2011-11-01
The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.
Option price calibration from Renyi entropy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brody, Dorje C.; Buckley, Ian R.C.; Constantinou, Irene C.
2007-01-01
The calibration of the risk-neutral density function for the future asset price, based on the maximisation of the entropy measure of Renyi, is proposed. Whilst the conventional approach based on the use of logarithmic entropy measure fails to produce the observed power-law distribution when calibrated against option prices, the approach outlined here is shown to produce the desired form of the distribution. Procedures for the maximisation of the Renyi entropy under constraints are outlined in detail, and a number of interesting properties of the resulting power-law distributions are also derived. The result is applied to efficiently evaluate prices of path-independent derivatives
Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models
van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Genest, C.; Werker, B.J.M.
2003-01-01
This paper examines the behavior of multivariate option prices in the presence of association between the underlying assets.Parametric families of copulas offering various alternatives to the normal dependence structure are used to model this association, which is explicitly assumed to vary over
Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory
Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer
One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.
Recovering a time-homogeneous stock price process from perpetual option prices
Ekström, Erik; Hobson, David
2009-01-01
It is well known how to determine the price of perpetual American options if the underlying stock price is a time-homogeneous diffusion. In the present paper we consider the inverse problem, that is, given prices of perpetual American options for different strikes, we show how to construct a time-homogeneous stock price model which reproduces the given option prices.
NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergey A. Sannikov
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.
Coarse Thinking and Pricing a Financial Option
Siddiqi, Hammad
2009-01-01
Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] present a formalization of the concept of coarse thinking in the context of a model of persuasion. The essential idea behind coarse thinking is that people put situations into categories and the values assigned to attributes in a given situation are affected by the values of corresponding attributes in other co-categorized situations. We derive a new option pricing formula based on the assumption that the market consists of coars...
Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion
Balieiro Filho, Ruy Gabriel; Rosenfeld, Rogerio
2004-12-01
There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments.
Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing
Hä ppö lä , Juho
2016-01-01
We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE
Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices
Bayer, Christian; Siebenmorgen, Markus; Tempone, Raul
2017-01-01
We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non
Pricing perpetual American options under multiscale stochastic elasticity of variance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoon, Ji-Hun
2015-01-01
Highlights: • We study the effects of the stochastic elasticity of variance on perpetual American option. • Our SEV model consists of a fast mean-reverting factor and a slow mean-revering factor. • A slow scale factor has a very significant impact on the option price. • We analyze option price structures through the market prices of elasticity risk. - Abstract: This paper studies pricing the perpetual American options under a constant elasticity of variance type of underlying asset price model where the constant elasticity is replaced by a fast mean-reverting Ornstein–Ulenbeck process and a slowly varying diffusion process. By using a multiscale asymptotic analysis, we find the impact of the stochastic elasticity of variance on the option prices and the optimal exercise prices with respect to model parameters. Our results enhance the existing option price structures in view of flexibility and applicability through the market prices of elasticity risk
Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potgieter, Petrus H.
2009-01-01
In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].
Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage
Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo
2010-09-01
Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.
The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.
Hull, John C; White, Alan D
1987-01-01
One option-pricing problem which has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of European call on an asset which has a stochastic volatility. This paper examines this problem. The option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price. Numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price. It is found that the Black-Scholes price frequently overprices options and that the ...
Numeraire Invariance and application to Option Pricing and Hedging
Jamshidian, F.; Vanmaele, Michèle; Deelstra, Griselda; De Schepper, Ann; Dhaene, Jan; Reynaerts, Huguette; Schoutens, Wim; Van Goethem, Paul
2008-01-01
Numeraire invariance is a well-known technique in option pricing and hedging theory. It takes a convenient asset as the numeraire, as if it were the medium of exchange, and expresses all other asset and option prices in units of this numeraire. Since the price of the numeraire relative to itself is
On the Pricing of Options in Incomplete Markets
Melenberg, B.; Werker, B.J.M.
1996-01-01
In this paper we reconsider the pricing of options in incomplete continuous time markets.We first discuss option pricing with idiosyncratic stochastic volatility.This leads, of course, to an averaged Black-Scholes price formula.Our proof of this result uses a new formalization of idiosyncraticy
THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yanling GU; Juan LI
2006-01-01
The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.
How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Raouf Sheybani
2016-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.
Option Pricing with Time-changed Lévy Processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klingler, Sven; Kim, Young Shin; Rachev, Svetlozar T.
2013-01-01
In this article, we introduce two new six-parameter processes based on time-changing tempered stable distributions and develop an option pricing model based on these processes. This model provides a good fit to observed option prices. To demonstrate the advantages of the new processes, we conduct...
Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars
2015-01-01
We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...
An approximate moving boundary method for American option pricing
Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.
2015-01-01
We present a method to solve the free-boundary problem that arises in the pricing of classical American options. Such free-boundary problems arise when one attempts to solve optimal-stopping problems set in continuous time. American option pricing is one of the most popular optimal-stopping problems
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas
2013-01-01
to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...
Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars
2014-01-01
Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...
Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
This paper considers derivatives with payoffs that depend on a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. A traffic light option pricing formula is derived under lognormality assumptions on the underlying processes. The traffic light option is aimed at the Danish life and pension sector to help...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....
Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds
Gonçalves, Franklin de O.
1997-01-01
This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observab...
Report on "American Option Pricing and Hedging Strategies"
Zhang, Jinshan
2007-01-01
This paper mainly discusses the American option's hedging strategies via binomialmodel and the basic idea of pricing and hedging American option. Although the essential scheme of hedging is almost the same as European option, small differences may arise when simulating the process for American option holder has more rights, spelling that the option can be exercised at anytime before its maturity. Our method is dynamic-hedging method.
Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)
We survey the recent academic literature that uses option-implied information to construct equity portfolios. Studies show that equity managers can earn a positive alpha by using information in individual equity options, by using stocks' exposure to information in market index options, and by using...... stocks' exposure to crude oil option information. Option-implied information can also help construct better mean-variance portfolios and better estimates of market beta....
Option pricing with COS method on Graphics Processing Units
B. Zhang (Bo); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)
2009-01-01
htmlabstractIn this paper, acceleration on the GPU for option pricing by the COS method is demonstrated. In particular, both European and Bermudan options will be discussed in detail. For Bermudan options, we consider both the Black-Scholes model and Levy processes of infinite activity. Moreover,
Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options
Berridge, S.J.
2004-01-01
This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas
observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...
Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)
We survey the recent academic literature that uses option-implied information to construct equity portfolios. Studies show that equity managers can earn a positive alpha by using information in individual equity options, by using stocks' exposure to information in market index options, and by usi...
European option pricing under the Student's t noise with jumps
Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le
2017-03-01
In this paper we present a new approach to price European options under the Student's t noise with jumps. Through the conditional delta hedging strategy and the minimal mean-square-error hedging, a closed-form solution of the European option value is obtained under the incomplete information case. In particular, we propose a Value-at-Risk-type procedure to estimate the volatility parameter σ such that the pricing error is in accord with the risk preferences of investors. In addition, the numerical results of us show that options are not priced in some cases in an incomplete information market.
Study of Agricultural Product Options Pricing
HONG, Qiu
2017-09-01
China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. The agricultural production and management of agricultural products are confronted with many risks, especially the market risks. Option contract is the object of option market transaction, so it is very important to study the option contract of agricultural products. Option trading separates the risk and profit, so that the trader can avoid the risk while retaining the opportunity to obtain income. The option has the characteristics of low transaction cost, simple and efficient, so it is suitable for small and medium investors.
Option Price Estimations and Speculative Trading In Knowledge Society
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ovidiu TURCOANE
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Derivatives market has known an enormous and continuous development from the late 1970s, thanks to the most celebrated Black-Scholes-Merton formula. The impact on global economy is also tremendous, but due to the high leverage of speculative option trading there is a perpetual danger of economic collapse. This paper gives a short description of knowledge society and proposes methods for option price estimation based on implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. ‘Free-lunch’ is hardly achievable if one predicts the option price using the knowledgeable information from the market and there is almost impossible to speculate, rather than to hedge, when trading option.
Basket Option Pricing Using GP-GPU Hardware Acceleration
Douglas, Craig C.; Lee, Hyoseop
2010-01-01
We introduce a basket option pricing problem arisen in financial mathematics. We discretized the problem based on the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method and parallel cyclic reduction is applied to solve the set of tridiagonal matrices
Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miao Han
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.
Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing
Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos
2005-01-01
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility “smile” can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.
Capturing option anomalies with a variance-dependent pricing kernel
Christoffersen, P.; Heston, S.; Jacobs, K.
2013-01-01
We develop a GARCH option model with a variance premium by combining the Heston-Nandi (2000) dynamic with a new pricing kernel that nests Rubinstein (1976) and Brennan (1979). While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is
Stochastic arbitrage return and its implications for option pricing
Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos
2004-01-01
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random proces...
The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salvador Cruz Rambaud
Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal
Bayesian Option Pricing Framework with Stochastic Volatility for FX Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ying Wang
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The application of stochastic volatility (SV models in the option pricing literature usually assumes that the market has sufficient option data to calibrate the model’s risk-neutral parameters. When option data are insufficient or unavailable, market practitioners must estimate the model from the historical returns of the underlying asset and then transform the resulting model into its risk-neutral equivalent. However, the likelihood function of an SV model can only be expressed in a high-dimensional integration, which makes the estimation a highly challenging task. The Bayesian approach has been the classical way to estimate SV models under the data-generating (physical probability measure, but the transformation from the estimated physical dynamic into its risk-neutral counterpart has not been addressed. Inspired by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH option pricing approach by Duan in 1995, we propose an SV model that enables us to simultaneously and conveniently perform Bayesian inference and transformation into risk-neutral dynamics. Our model relaxes the normality assumption on innovations of both return and volatility processes, and our empirical study shows that the estimated option prices generate realistic implied volatility smile shapes. In addition, the volatility premium is almost flat across strike prices, so adding a few option data to the historical time series of the underlying asset can greatly improve the estimation of option prices.
CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wanwan Huang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.
Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone
Veestraeten, D.
2013-01-01
This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage
Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone
Veestraeten, D.
2012-01-01
This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage
On option pricing models in the presence of heavy tails
Vellekoop, Michel; Nieuwenhuis, Hans
2007-01-01
We propose a modification of the option pricing framework derived by Borland which removes the possibilities for arbitrage within this framework. It turns out that such arbitrage possibilities arise due to an incorrect derivation of the martingale transformation in the non-Gaussian option models
Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect
Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert
2013-02-01
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.
Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven; Jacobs, Kris
2013-01-01
We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is nonmonotonic. A negative variance premium makes it U shaped. We present new semiparametric...... evidence to confirm this U-shaped relationship between the risk-neutral and physical probability densities. The new pricing kernel substantially improves our ability to reconcile the time-series properties of stock returns with the cross-section of option prices. It provides a unified explanation...... for the implied volatility puzzle, the overreaction of long-term options to changes in short-term variance, and the fat tails of the risk-neutral return distribution relative to the physical distribution....
Pricing Employee Stock Options (ESOs) with Random Lattice
Chendra, E.; Chin, L.; Sukmana, A.
2018-04-01
Employee Stock Options (ESOs) are stock options granted by companies to their employees. Unlike standard options that can be traded by typical institutional or individual investors, employees cannot sell or transfer their ESOs to other investors. The sale restrictions may induce the ESO’s holder to exercise them earlier. In much cited paper, Hull and White propose a binomial lattice in valuing ESOs which assumes that employees will exercise voluntarily their ESOs if the stock price reaches a horizontal psychological barrier. Due to nonlinearity errors, the numerical pricing results oscillate significantly so they may lead to large pricing errors. In this paper, we use the random lattice method to price the Hull-White ESOs model. This method can reduce the nonlinearity error by aligning a layer of nodes of the random lattice with a psychological barrier.
Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radu Lupu
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.
Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter
While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...
Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Consiglio, Andrea; De Giovanni, Domenico
New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework that enc......New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework...... that encompasses the most known sources of incompleteness. We show that the surrender option, joined with a wide range of claims embedded in insurance contracts, can be priced through our tool, and deliver hedging portfolios to mitigate the risk arising from their positions. We provide extensive empirical analysis...... to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option....
Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge
2015-01-01
–Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....
Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge
approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....
Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.
Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S
2013-08-01
Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.
Neural Networks as Semiparametric Option Pricing Tool
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Baruník, Jozef; Baruníková, M.
2011-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 66-83 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA402/09/0732 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : option valuation * neural network * S&P 500 index options Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/barunik-0367688.pdf
Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing
Häppölä, Juho
2016-01-06
We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential equation that can be solved analytically in terms of the characteristic exponent of the Levy process. Then, a numerical inverse Fourier transform allows us to obtain the option price. We present a novel bound for the error and use this bound to set the parameters for the numerical method. We analyze the properties of the bound for a dissipative and pure-jump example. The bound presented is independent of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset prices. The error bound can be decomposed into a product of terms resulting from the dynamics and the option payoff, respectively. The analysis is supplemented by numerical examples that demonstrate results comparable to and superior to the existing literature.
Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter
In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...
Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing
Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao
2016-04-01
In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.
Leveraged exchange-traded funds price dynamics and options valuation
Leung, Tim
2016-01-01
This book provides an analysis, under both discrete-time and continuous-time frameworks, on the price dynamics of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs), with emphasis on the roles of leverage ratio, realized volatility, investment horizon, and tracking errors. This study provides new insights on the risks associated with LETFs. It also leads to the discussion of new risk management concepts, such as admissible leverage ratios and admissible risk horizon, as well as the mathematical and empirical analyses of several trading strategies, including static portfolios, pairs trading, and stop-loss strategies involving ETFs and LETFs. The final part of the book addresses the pricing of options written on LETFs. Since different LETFs are designed to track the same reference index, these funds and their associated options share very similar sources of randomness. The authors provide a no-arbitrage pricing approach that consistently value options on LETFs with different leverage ratios with stochastic volatility and ...
Higher-Order Finite Element Solutions of Option Prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Raahauge, Peter
2004-01-01
Kinks and jumps in the payoff function of option contracts prevent an effectiveimplementation of higher-order numerical approximation methods. Moreover, thederivatives (the greeks) are not easily determined around such singularities, even withstandard lower-order methods. This paper suggests...... for prices as well as for first and second order derivatives(delta and gamma). Unlike similar studies, numerical approximation errors aremeasured both as weighted averages and in the supnorm over a state space includingtime-to-maturities down to a split second.KEYWORDS: Numerical option pricing, Transformed...
Basket call option pricing for CCVG using sparse grids
Crocce, Fabian
2016-01-06
The use of processes with jumps to overcome the shortcomings of the classical Black and Scholes when modelling stock prices has became very popular. One of the best-known models is the Common Clock Variance Gamma model (CCVG), introduced by Madan and Seneta in the 1990 [3]. We propose a method to price European basket call options modelled by the CCVG. The method could be extended to other model obtained by the subordination of a multidimensional Brownian motion and to more general options. To simplify the expositions we consider calls under the CCVG.
Basket call option pricing for CCVG using sparse grids
Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Iania, Alessandro; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
The use of processes with jumps to overcome the shortcomings of the classical Black and Scholes when modelling stock prices has became very popular. One of the best-known models is the Common Clock Variance Gamma model (CCVG), introduced by Madan and Seneta in the 1990 [3]. We propose a method to price European basket call options modelled by the CCVG. The method could be extended to other model obtained by the subordination of a multidimensional Brownian motion and to more general options. To simplify the expositions we consider calls under the CCVG.
Numeraire-invariant option pricing and american, bermudan, trigger stream rollover
Jamshidian, F.
2004-01-01
Part I proposes a numeraire-invariant option pricing framework. It defines an option, its price process, and such notions as option indistinguishability and equivalence, domination, payoff process, trigger option, and semipositive option. It develops some of their basic properties, including price
A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing
S. G. Kou
2002-01-01
Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black--Scholes option-pricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called "volatility smile" in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between ...
Prospect theory: An application to European option pricing
Martina Nardon; Paolo Pianca
2012-01-01
Empirical studies on quoted options highlight deviations from the theoretical model of Black and Scholes; this is due to different causes, such as assumptions regarding the price dynamics, markets frictions and investors' attitude toward risk. In this contribution, we focus on this latter issue and study how to value European options within the continuous cumulative prospect theory. According to prospect theory, individuals do not always take their decisions consistently with the maximization...
Consequences for option pricing of a long memory in volatility
Taylor, S J
2001-01-01
The economic consequences of a long memory assumption about volatility are documented, by comparing implied volatilities for option prices obtained from short and long memory volatility processes. Numerical results are given for options on the S&P 100 index from 1984 to 1998, with lives up to two years. The long memory assumption is found to have a significant impact upon the term structure of implied volatilities and a relatively minor impact upon smile effects. These conclusions are importa...
Understanding transmission and distribution pricing options and proposals
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shalaby, A.
1998-01-01
Issues regarding power transmission and distribution pricing were addressed in view of the importance of pricing to electricity restructuring and policy developments. Specific facts, policy directions, options and challenges peculiar to Ontario were highlighted, and recent Ontario legislation affecting the electricity industry was updated. The importance of transmission tariffs to open markets was reviewed with special reference to Canada because of their role in internal restructuring and in gaining fuller access to U.S. markets. The objectives of transmission and distribution pricing, the principles for network pricing, and the range of available options were considered with specific reference to Ontario. In comparing Ontario to other jurisdictions, it was acknowledged that the same problems that plagued other jurisdictions introducing deregulation, are also prominent in Ontario. As has been observed elsewhere, there has been no progress on transmission and distribution pricing options. There are significant implementation and transition challenges waiting for solutions. Issues beyond Ontario, such as trading with the United States, wider reach of the Independent Market Operator, agreements with other IMOs, etc., are still largely unresolved
Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lorella Fatone
2012-01-01
model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.
An iterative two-step algorithm for American option pricing
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Siddiqi, A. H.; Manchanda, P.; Kočvara, Michal
2000-01-01
Roč. 11, č. 2 (2000), s. 71-84 ISSN 0953-0061 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA1075707 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Keywords : American option pricing * linear complementarity * iterative methods Subject RIV: AH - Economics
Pricing High-Dimensional American Options Using Local Consistency Conditions
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2004-01-01
We investigate a new method for pricing high-dimensional American options. The method is of finite difference type but is also related to Monte Carlo techniques in that it involves a representative sampling of the underlying variables.An approximating Markov chain is built using this sampling and
Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices
Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.
2004-12-01
Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).
Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salvador Cruz Rambaud
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.
Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing
Wróblewski, Marcin
2017-05-01
This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.
Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicoleta Vintila
2007-07-01
Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.
Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars
This paper uses asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models to fit return data and to price options. The models can be estimated straightforwardly by maximum likelihood, have high statistical fit when used on S&P 500 index return data, and allow for substantial negative skewness and time...... varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. When forecasting out-of-sample a large set of index options between 1996 and 2009, substantial improvements are found compared to several benchmark models in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities...
Efficient Option Pricing under Levy Processes, with CVA and FVA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jimmy eLaw
2015-07-01
Full Text Available We generalize the Piterbarg (2010 model to include 1 bilateral default risk as in Burgard and Kjaer (2012, and 2 jumps in the dynamics of the underlying asset using general classes of L'evy processes of exponential type. We develop an efficient explicit-implicit scheme for European options and barrier options taking CVA-FVA into account. We highlight the importance of this work in the context of trading, pricing and management a derivative portfolio given the trajectory of regulations.
Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices
Bayer, Christian
2017-07-22
We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non-smooth integrands. Due to this lack of regularity, higher order numerical integration techniques may not be directly available, requiring the use of methods like Monte Carlo specifically designed to work for non-regular problems. We propose to use the inherent smoothing property of the density of the underlying in the above models to mollify the payoff function by means of an exact conditional expectation. The resulting conditional expectation is unbiased and yields a smooth integrand, which is amenable to the efficient use of adaptive sparse-grid cubature. Numerical examples indicate that the high-order method may perform orders of magnitude faster than Monte Carlo or Quasi Monte Carlo methods in dimensions up to 35.
Pricing summer day options by good-deal bounds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanamura, Takashi; Ohashi, Kazuhiko
2009-01-01
Despite the worldwide popularity of CDD- and HDD-type weather derivatives based on temperature, a different class of weather derivatives, so-called summer day options, is more popular in Japan; the payoffs are determined by the number of summer days (i.e., the days whose average temperature is above 25 C) during the contract period. In this paper, we price such summer day options by the good-deal bounds of Cochrane and Saa-Requejo [Cochrane, J.H., and J. Saa-Requejo, 2000, Beyond Arbitrage: Good-Deal Asset Price Bounds in Incomplete Markets, Journal of Political Economy 108, 79-119.], using temperature data for Tokyo. (author)
Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices
Siddiqi, Hammad
2011-01-01
People tend to think by analogies and comparisons. Such way of thinking, termed coarse thinking by Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] is intuitively very appealing. We develop a new option pricing model based on the idea that the market consists of coarse thinkers as well as rational investors when limits to arbitrage (transaction costs) prevent rational investors from profiting at the expense of coarse thinkers. The new formula, which is a closed form solution to t...
Basket Option Pricing Using GP-GPU Hardware Acceleration
Douglas, Craig C.
2010-08-01
We introduce a basket option pricing problem arisen in financial mathematics. We discretized the problem based on the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method and parallel cyclic reduction is applied to solve the set of tridiagonal matrices generated by the ADI method. To reduce the computational time of the problem, a general purpose graphics processing units (GP-GPU) environment is considered. Numerical results confirm the convergence and efficiency of the proposed method. © 2010 IEEE.
Bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model
Ekström, Erik
2006-01-01
We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black-Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.
Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aimin Heng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.
Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates
Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun
2017-08-01
Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.
On pricing futures options on random binomial tree
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir
2013-01-01
The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.
The pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays
Lin, Lisha; Li, Yaqiong; Wu, Jing
2018-04-01
In the paper, the pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays is discussed. By using the approach of equivalent martingale measure transformation, the market is proved to be complete. With exchange option as a particular example, we obtain the explicit pricing formula in a subinterval of option period. The robust Euler-Maruyama method is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to compute exchange option prices within the whole option period. Numerical experiments indicate that there is an increasing possibility of the difference between the delayed and Black-Scholes option prices with the increase of delay.
Kim, Young Shin
2018-01-01
In this paper, we will discuss an approximation of the characteristic function of the first passage time for a Levy process using the martingale approach. The characteristic function of the first passage time of the tempered stable process is provided explicitly or by an indirect numerical method. This will be applied to the perpetual American option pricing and the barrier option pricing. Numerical illustrations are provided for the calibrated parameters using the market call and put prices.
Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs
Gu, Hui; Liang, Jin-Rong; Zhang, Yun-Xiu
2012-08-01
This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing by a fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. The price of the underlying stock follows a time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion. By a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument, the pricing formula for the European call option in discrete time setting is obtained.
Efficient Pricing of Early : Exercise and Exotic Options Based on Fourier Cosine Expansions
Zhang, B.
2012-01-01
In the financial world, two tasks are of prime importance: model calibration and portfolio hedging. For both tasks, efficient option pricing is necessary, particularly for the calibration where many options with different strike prices and different maturities need to be priced at the same time.
Electricity price and Southern California's water supply options
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dale, Larry [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Camilla Dunham Whitehead, Andre Fargeix, Golden Gate Economics, 1 Cycltron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)
2004-11-01
This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California-new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.
Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes
Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Keissling, Jonas; Tempone, Raul
2015-01-01
We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions
European Option Pricing with Transaction Costs in Lévy Jump Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiayin Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The European option pricing problem with transaction costs is investigated for a risky asset price model with Lévy jump. By the aid of arbitrage pricing theory and the generalized Itô formula (which includes Poisson jump, the explicit solution to the risk asset price model is given. According to arbitrage-free principle, we first discretize the continuous-time model. Then, in each small time interval, the transaction costs are introduced. By using the Δ-hedging strategy, the explicit solutions of the European options pricing formula with transaction costs are given for the risky asset price model with Lévy jump.
Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)
2001-11-01
Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
El Farouq, Naïma, E-mail: naima.elfarouq@univ-bpclermont.fr [Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand II) (France); Bernhard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.bernhard@inria.fr [INRIA Sophia Antipolis-Méditerranée (France)
2015-10-15
We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete.
2011-11-28
... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-65795; File No. SR-OPRA-2011-04] Options Price... Implement the Datafeed Policy November 21, 2011. Pursuant to Section 11A of the Securities Exchange Act of... Options Price Reporting Authority (``OPRA'') submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Farouq, Naïma; Bernhard, Pierre
2015-01-01
We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete
Wang, Xiao-Tian; Wu, Min; Zhou, Ze-Min; Jing, Wei-Shu
2012-02-01
This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional long memory stochastic volatility model with transaction costs. Through the 'anchoring and adjustment' argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained.
Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Non-Monotonic Pricing Kernels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Babaoglu, Kadir; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven L.
We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A U-shaped pricing kernel is economically most im...
2012-09-12
... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-67791; File No. SR-OPRA-2012-05] Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Amendment to the Plan for...'') \\1\\ and Rule 608 thereunder,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on August 27, 2012, the Options Price...
A note on the pricing of the perpetual American capped power put option
Sakagami, Yoshitaka
2012-01-01
We give an explicit solution to the perpetual American capped power put option pricing problem in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model. The approach is mainly based on free-boundary formulation and verification. For completeness we also give an explicit solution to the perpetual American standard power (≥1) option pricing problem.
Demand-side management pricing options in electric utilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sardana, P.; Herman, P.
1990-01-01
In 1989 Ontario Hydro implemented optional time-of-use (TOU) rates at the wholesale level for all municipal utilities in the province. At the same time, mandatory TOU rates were implemented for large users (customers with loads in excess of 5 MW) served by municipal utilities and Ontario Hydro's direct customers. To fully explore the potential of rate structures as demand-side management (DSM) tools, Ontario Hydro retained a consulting firm to carry out a survey of innovative rate structures in other jurisdications. The survey was intended to identify: the status quo of rate structures in other jurisdictions that were designed specifically to encourage DSM; a profile of the cost basis of the rate structures, for example whether traditional embedded cost of service analyses or contentious methods such as marginal cost pricing were used; whether innovative rates have been successful, and customer reactions and attitudes; and how innovative rates fit into the overall strategy of the utilities. It was found that TOU, interruptible and end-use targeted rates are the rate structures of choice for many utilities. Most are concerned with deferring capacity, reducing peak demand, and shifting load out of peak periods. Most utilities report success with their programs and satisfaction with the present form of the programs. 5 tabs
Recovery of time-dependent volatility in option pricing model
Deng, Zui-Cha; Hon, Y. C.; Isakov, V.
2016-11-01
In this paper we investigate an inverse problem of determining the time-dependent volatility from observed market prices of options with different strikes. Due to the non linearity and sparsity of observations, an analytical solution to the problem is generally not available. Numerical approximation is also difficult to obtain using most of the existing numerical algorithms. Based on our recent theoretical results, we apply the linearisation technique to convert the problem into an inverse source problem from which recovery of the unknown volatility function can be achieved. Two kinds of strategies, namely, the integral equation method and the Landweber iterations, are adopted to obtain the stable numerical solution to the inverse problem. Both theoretical analysis and numerical examples confirm that the proposed approaches are effective. The work described in this paper was partially supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. CityU 101112) and grants from the NNSF of China (Nos. 11261029, 11461039), and NSF grants DMS 10-08902 and 15-14886 and by Emylou Keith and Betty Dutcher Distinguished Professorship at the Wichita State University (USA).
Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Min-Ku
2016-01-01
This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.
A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets
E-Khatib, Youssef
2012-09-01
One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.
VaR and CVaR Implied in Option Prices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giovanni Barone Adesi
2016-02-01
Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk and CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk are implied by option prices. Their relationships to option prices are derived initially under the pricing measure. It does not require assumptions about the distribution of portfolio returns. The effects of changes of measure are modest at the short horizons typically used in applications. The computation of CVaR from option price is very convenient, because this measure is not elicitable, making direct comparisons of statistical inferences from market data problematic.
Mellin Transform Method for European Option Pricing with Hull-White Stochastic Interest Rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ji-Hun Yoon
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Even though interest rates fluctuate randomly in the marketplace, many option-pricing models do not fully consider their stochastic nature owing to their generally limited impact on option prices. However, stochastic dynamics in stochastic interest rates may have a significant impact on option prices as we take account of issues of maturity, hedging, or stochastic volatility. In this paper, we derive a closed form solution for European options in Black-Scholes model with stochastic interest rate using Mellin transform techniques.
Skewed Normal Distribution Of Return Assets In Call European Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evy Sulistianingsih
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Option is one of security derivates. In financial market, option is a contract that gives a right (notthe obligation for its owner to buy or sell a particular asset for a certain price at a certain time.Option can give a guarantee for a risk that can be faced in a market.This paper studies about theuse of Skewed Normal Distribution (SN in call europeanoption pricing. The SN provides aflexible framework that captures the skewness of log return. We obtain aclosed form solution forthe european call option pricing when log return follow the SN. Then, we will compare optionprices that is obtained by the SN and the Black-Scholes model with the option prices of market.Â Keywords: skewed normaldistribution, log return, options.
Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Hybrid Products
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
2009-01-01
companies stay solvent in the traffic light stress test system introduced by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authorities in 2001. Similar systems are now being implemented in several other European countries. A pricing approach for general payoffs is presented and illustrated with simulation via...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....
Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin
2015-01-01
to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...
Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu
-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....
Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris
-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....
Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes
Crocce, Fabian
2015-01-07
We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a L? bound that separates the dynamical contribution from that arising from the type of the option n in question. The bound achieved does not rely on information of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset values. In addition, we demonstrate improved numerical performance for select examples of practical relevance when compared to established bounding methods.
American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stentoft, Lars Peter
In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...
Pricing and hedging of arithmetic Asian options via the Edgeworth series expansion approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiping Li
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for arithmetic Asian options by using the Edgeworth series expansion. Our pricing formula consists of a Black-Scholes-Merton type formula and a finite sum with the estimation of the remainder term. Moreover, we present explicitly a method to compute each term in our pricing formula. The hedging formulas (greek letters for the arithmetic Asian options are obtained as well. Our formulas for the long lasting question on pricing and hedging arithmetic Asian options are easy to implement with enough accuracy. Our numerical illustration shows that the arithmetic Asian options worths less than the European options under the standard Black-Scholes assumptions, verifies theoretically that the volatility of the arithmetic average is less than the one of the underlying assets, and also discovers an interesting phenomena that the arithmetic Asian option for large fixed strikes such as stocks has higher volatility (elasticity than the plain European option. However, the elasticity of the arithmetic Asian options for small fixed strikes as trading in currencies and commodity products is much less than the elasticity of the plain European option. These findings are consistent with the ones from the hedgings with respect to the time to expiration, the strike, the present underlying asset price, the interest rate and the volatility.
Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wai-Ki Ching
2007-10-01
Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.
Closed-form pricing formula for exchange option with credit risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Geonwoo; Koo, Eunho
2016-01-01
In this paper, we study the valuation of Exchange option with credit risk. Since the over-the-counter (OTC) markets have grown rapidly in size, the counterparty default risk is very important and should be considered for the valuation of options. For modeling of credit risk, we use the structural model of Klein [13]. We derive the closed-form pricing formula for the price of the Exchange option with credit risk via the Mellin transform and provide the experiment results to illustrate the important properties of option with numerical graphs.
Pricing and hedging of a general kind of multiasset option
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Romagnoli
2007-10-01
Full Text Available Our aims is to propose an evaluation and a replicating strategy for a general kind of multiasset option in an international multicurrencies no-arbitrage world with Gaussian interest rates. Johnson's formula for the option on the maximum of several assets is derived as a particular case of ours, and two examples of application, namely the MAP strategy and the option on the arithmetic mean of several assets, are presented.
This paper presents the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the Pennsylvania portion of the Monongahela River.
2010-10-20
...-OPRA-2003-01. OPRA reorganized as a limited liability company effective as of January 1, 2010, and the current OPRA Plan is entitled ``Limited Liability Company Agreement of Options Price Reporting Authority...
Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.
2016-12-01
The paper is based on the results from our recent research on multidimensional option pricing problems. We focus on European option valuation when the price movement of the underlying asset is driven by a stochastic volatility following a square root process proposed by Heston. The stochastic approach incorporates a new additional spatial variable into this model and makes it very robust, i.e. it provides a framework to price a variety of options that is closer to reality. The main topic is to present the numerical scheme arising from the concept of discontinuous Galerkin methods and applicable to the Heston option pricing model. The numerical results are presented on artificial benchmarks as well as on reference market data.
Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications
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Raúl Merino
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.
Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas
2011-01-01
of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...
Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads
Cremers, M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.; Weinbaum, D.
2008-01-01
This paper introduces measures of volatility and jump risk that are based on individual stock options to explain credit spreads on corporate bonds. Implied volatilities of individual options are shown to contain useful information for credit spreads and improve on historical volatilities when
A tree-based method to price American options in the Heston model
Vellekoop, M.; Nieuwenhuis, H.
2009-01-01
We develop an algorithm to price American options on assets that follow the stochastic volatility model defined by Heston. We use an approach which is based on a modification of a combined tree for stock prices and volatilities, where the number of nodes grows quadratically in the number of time
On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices
de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.; Pelsser, A.
2004-01-01
We examine whether the information in cap and swaption prices is consistent with realized movements of the interest rate term structure. To extract an option-implied interest rate covariance matrix from cap and swaption prices, we use Libor market models as a modelling framework. We propose a
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2004-01-01
We propose a method for pricing high-dimensional American options on an irregular grid; the method involves using quadratic functions to approximate the local effect of the Black-Scholes operator.Once such an approximation is known, one can solve the pricing problem by time stepping in an explicit
Robust pricing of european options with wavelets and the characteristic function
Ortiz-Gracia, L.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2013-01-01
We present a novel method for pricing European options based on the wavelet approximation method and the characteristic function. We focus on the discounted expected payoff pricing formula and compute it by means of wavelets. We approximate the density function associated to the underlying asset
The Pricing of Vulnerable Options in a Fractional Brownian Motion Environment
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Chao Wang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Under the assumption of the stock price, interest rate, and default intensity obeying the stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion, the jump-diffusion model is established for the financial market in fractional Brownian motion setting. With the changes of measures, the traditional pricing method is simplified and the general pricing formula is obtained for the European vulnerable option with stochastic interest rate. At the same time, the explicit expression for it comes into being.
Adaptive wavelet method for pricing two-asset Asian options with floating strike
Černá, Dana
2017-12-01
Asian options are path-dependent option contracts which payoff depends on the average value of the asset price over some period of time. We focus on pricing of Asian options on two assets. The model for pricing these options is represented by a parabolic equation with time variable and three state variables, but using substitution it can be reduced to the equation with only two state variables. For time discretization we use the θ-scheme. We propose a wavelet basis that is adapted to boundary conditions and use an adaptive scheme with this basis for discretization on the given time level. The main advantage of this scheme is small number of degrees of freedom. We present numerical experiments for the Asian put option with floating strike and compare the results for the proposed adaptive method and the Galerkin method.
A Simple Approach to Interest-Rate Option Pricing.
Turnbull, Stuart M; Milne, Frank
1991-01-01
A simple introduction to contingent claim valuation of risky assets in a discrete time, stochastic interest-rate economy is provided. Taking the term structure of interest rates as exogenous, closed-form solutions are derived for European options written on (1) Treasury bills, (2) interest-rate forward contracts, (3) interest-rate futures contracts, (4) Treasury bonds, (5) interest-rate caps, (6) stock options, (7) equity forward contracts, (8) equity futures contracts, (9) Eurodollar liabili...
Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Nonlinear Pricing Kernels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Babaoglu, Kadir Gokhan; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven
We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A second volatility factor is economically most i...
Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk
Cherian, J.A.; Perotti, E.C.
1999-01-01
The paper analyzes foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order to
Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk
Cherian, J.A.; Perotti, E.C.
1999-01-01
he paper analyses foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order to
Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk
Cherian, J. A.; Perotti, E.C.
1999-01-01
The paper analyses foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order to
Bounds for Asian basket options
Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle
2008-09-01
In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.
Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model
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Claudio Henrique Barbedo
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Takahashi, Leticia; Gunn, Laura Keiko; Correia, Paulo B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia
2008-07-01
The reorganization of the electric sector has improved the opportunity of energy trade through contracts, which have to be considered on the risk evaluation for generating companies. Different types of contracts have been used in electric energy commercialization. This work develops a model for option contract pricing. The classic model of options pricing used in the financial market is based in Black- Scholes. Due to the inherent feature of the Brazilian electrical system, with a strong predominance of hydroelectricity, the seasonal swing of the electricity price is the main source of contractual risk. So, the Black-Scholes model very is not adjusted. To deal with the uncertainties, this work uses an approach based on analysis of scenarios and binomial trees. Case studies are analyzed with binomial tree to calculate the price of the option contract. (author)
Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion.
Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei
2014-01-01
The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed.
Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie
2008-01-01
We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study option pricing with risk-minimization criterion in an incomplete market where the dynamics of the risky underlying asset is governed by a jump diffusion equation with stochastic volatility. We obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE of European option. The finite difference method is employed to compute the European option valuation of PIDE.
Asian Option Pricing with Monotonous Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion
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Di Pan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Geometric-average Asian option pricing model with monotonous transaction cost rate under fractional Brownian motion was established. The method of partial differential equations was used to solve this model and the analytical expressions of the Asian option value were obtained. The numerical experiments show that Hurst exponent of the fractional Brownian motion and transaction cost rate have a significant impact on the option value.
Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)
2008-05-15
In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)
Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weron, Rafal
2008-01-01
In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)
Risk preference, option pricing and portfolio hedging with proportional transaction costs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Scaling is a key factor in option pricing. • The model is theoretically analyzed and the results are new. • Some numerical examples are performed. • The implied-volatility-frown is affected by the risk preference and scaling. - Abstract: This paper is concerned in the option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case with the proportional transaction costs. Through the Monte Carlo simulations it has been shown that the fractal scaling and risk preference of traders have an important influence on the hedging performances in both option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case. In addition, the relation between preference of traders and implied volatility frown is discussed. We conclude that the risk preferences of traders play an important role in determining the shape of the implied-volatility-frown and the different options having the different hedging frequencies is another reason for the implied volatility frown.
Oscillatory Reduction in Option Pricing Formula Using Shifted Poisson and Linear Approximation
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Rachmawati Ro’fah Nur
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Option is one of derivative instruments that can help investors improve their expected return and minimize the risks. However, the Black-Scholes formula is generally used in determining the price of the option does not involve skewness factor and it is difficult to apply in computing process because it produces oscillation for the skewness values close to zero. In this paper, we construct option pricing formula that involve skewness by modified Black-Scholes formula using Shifted Poisson model and transformed it into the form of a Linear Approximation in the complete market to reduce the oscillation. The results are Linear Approximation formula can predict the price of an option with very accurate and successfully reduce the oscillations in the calculation processes.
Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions
Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han
This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.
Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brink, Corjan; Vollebergh, Herman R.J.; Werf, Edwin van der
2016-01-01
This paper studies various options to support allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as adjusting the cap, an auction reserve price, and fixed and variable carbon taxes in addition to the EU ETS. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that explicitly allows for allowance banking and for a detailed cost-effectiveness analysis at the EU Member State level. We find that tightening the cap provides an ad hoc solution to the fundamental issue of the robustness of the effective carbon price, while introducing a price component to the ETS brings structural carbon price support in times of negative demand shocks for emission allowances. These price-based policies still benefit from the intertemporal flexibility through the banking provision in the EU ETS by re-allocating emissions over time with stronger emission reductions in early years and emission increases in later years. A higher emission price has a larger negative impact on the new Member States' economies than on other Member States. Furthermore, introducing a carbon tax in addition to the EU ETS decreases the price of allowances, resulting in welfare gains for net buyers of allowances while net sellers are worse off. - Highlights: • We analyse reform options for European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) with a CGE model. • Variable carbon tax and auction reserve price support carbon price at least cost. • Price-based reforms decrease early emissions but increase later emissions through banking. • New Member States' economies are affected more than others by higher CO_2 prices. • Lower allowance prices due to a carbon tax are unfavourable to net sellers of allowances.
Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Knight, Rosemary; Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Brooks, Geoffrey; Mant, Andrea
2015-03-01
Pharmaceutical expenditure is rising globally. Most high-income countries have exercised pricing or purchasing strategies to address this pressure. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, usually have less regulated pharmaceutical markets and often lack feasible pricing or purchasing strategies, notwithstanding their wish to effectively manage medicine budgets. In high-income countries, most medicines payments are made by the state or health insurance institutions. In LMICs, most pharmaceutical expenditure is out-of-pocket which creates a different dynamic for policy enforcement. The paucity of rigorous studies on the effectiveness of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing strategies makes it especially difficult for policy makers in LMICs to decide on a course of action. This article reviews published articles on pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies. Many policy options for medicine pricing and purchasing have been found to work but they also have attendant risks. No one option is decisively preferred; rather a mix of options may be required based on country-specific context. Empirical studies in LMICs are lacking. However, risks from any one policy option can reasonably be argued to be greater in LMICs which often lack strong legal systems, purchasing and state institutions to underpin the healthcare system. Key factors are identified to assist LMICs improve their medicine pricing and purchasing systems. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.
Numerical Methods for Pricing American Options with Time-Fractional PDE Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiqiang Zhou
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper we develop a Laplace transform method and a finite difference method for solving American option pricing problem when the change of the option price with time is considered as a fractal transmission system. In this scenario, the option price is governed by a time-fractional partial differential equation (PDE with free boundary. The Laplace transform method is applied to the time-fractional PDE. It then leads to a nonlinear equation for the free boundary (i.e., optimal early exercise boundary function in Laplace space. After numerically finding the solution of the nonlinear equation, the Laplace inversion is used to transform the approximate early exercise boundary into the time space. Finally the approximate price of the American option is obtained. A boundary-searching finite difference method is also proposed to solve the free-boundary time-fractional PDEs for pricing the American options. Numerical examples are carried out to compare the Laplace approach with the finite difference method and it is confirmed that the former approach is much faster than the latter one.
Adaptive [theta]-methods for pricing American options
Khaliq, Abdul Q. M.; Voss, David A.; Kazmi, Kamran
2008-12-01
We develop adaptive [theta]-methods for solving the Black-Scholes PDE for American options. By adding a small, continuous term, the Black-Scholes PDE becomes an advection-diffusion-reaction equation on a fixed spatial domain. Standard implementation of [theta]-methods would require a Newton-type iterative procedure at each time step thereby increasing the computational complexity of the methods. Our linearly implicit approach avoids such complications. We establish a general framework under which [theta]-methods satisfy a discrete version of the positivity constraint characteristic of American options, and numerically demonstrate the sensitivity of the constraint. The positivity results are established for the single-asset and independent two-asset models. In addition, we have incorporated and analyzed an adaptive time-step control strategy to increase the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments are presented for one- and two-asset American options, using adaptive exponential splitting for two-asset problems. The approach is compared with an iterative solution of the two-asset problem in terms of computational efficiency.
Option pricing from wavelet-filtered financial series
de Almeida, V. T. X.; Moriconi, L.
2012-10-01
We perform wavelet decomposition of high frequency financial time series into large and small time scale components. Taking the FTSE100 index as a case study, and working with the Haar basis, it turns out that the small scale component defined by most (≃99.6%) of the wavelet coefficients can be neglected for the purpose of option premium evaluation. The relevance of the hugely compressed information provided by low-pass wavelet-filtering is related to the fact that the non-gaussian statistical structure of the original financial time series is essentially preserved for expiration times which are larger than just one trading day.
On the Black-Scholes European Option Pricing Model Robustness and Generality
Takada, Hellinton Hatsuo; de Oliveira Siqueira, José
2008-11-01
The common presentation of the widely known and accepted Black-Scholes European option pricing model explicitly imposes some restrictions such as the geometric Brownian motion assumption for the underlying stock price. In this paper, these usual restrictions are relaxed using maximum entropy principle of information theory, Pearson's distribution system, market frictionless and risk-neutrality theories to the calculation of a unique risk-neutral probability measure calibrated with market parameters.
Tight Error Bounds for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing for Exponential Levy Processes
Crocce, Fabian
2016-01-06
Prices of European options whose underlying asset is driven by the L´evy process are solutions to partial integrodifferential Equations (PIDEs) that generalise the Black-Scholes equation by incorporating a non-local integral term to account for the discontinuities in the asset price. The Levy -Khintchine formula provides an explicit representation of the characteristic function of a L´evy process (cf, [6]): One can derive an exact expression for the Fourier transform of the solution of the relevant PIDE. The rapid rate of convergence of the trapezoid quadrature and the speedup provide efficient methods for evaluationg option prices, possibly for a range of parameter configurations simultaneously. A couple of works have been devoted to the error analysis and parameter selection for these transform-based methods. In [5] several payoff functions are considered for a rather general set of models, whose characteristic function is assumed to be known. [4] presents the framework and theoretical approach for the error analysis, and establishes polynomial convergence rates for approximations of the option prices. [1] presents FT-related methods with curved integration contour. The classical flat FT-methods have been, on the other hand, extended for option pricing problems beyond the European framework [3]. We present a methodology for studying and bounding the error committed when using FT methods to compute option prices. We also provide a systematic way of choosing the parameters of the numerical method, minimising the error bound and guaranteeing adherence to a pre-described error tolerance. We focus on exponential L´evy processes that may be of either diffusive or pure jump in type. Our contribution is to derive a tight error bound for a Fourier transform method when pricing options under risk-neutral Levy dynamics. We present a simplified bound that separates the contributions of the payoff and of the process in an easily processed and extensible product form that
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep
2016-01-01
Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods. (paper)
Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.
The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Neng-fu(张能福); CAI Si-jing(蔡嗣经); LIU Chao-ma(刘朝马); TANG Rui(唐瑞)
2003-01-01
A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.
The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility
Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon
This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.
A Proposed Solution for the Chicken-Egg Dilemma in Pricing Currency Options
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ariful Hoque
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The implied volatility (IV estimation process suffers from an obvious chicken-egg dilemma: obtaining an unbiased IV requires the options to be priced correctly and calculating an accurate option price (OP requires an unbiased IV. We address this critical issue in two steps. First, the Granger causality test is employed, whichconfirms the chicken-and-egg problem in the IV computing process. Secondly, the concept of “moneyness volatility (MV” is introduced as an alternative to IV. MV is modelled based on an option’s moneyness (OM during the life of the option’s contract. The F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano test results consistently show that MV outperforms IV in estimating the exchange rate volatility for pricing options. Further, these series of tests across six major currency options substantiate the validity as well as the reliability of the results. We posit that MV offers a unique solution for pricing currency options accurately.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco
innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuang Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We study the pricing of American options in an incomplete market in which the dynamics of the underlying risky asset is driven by a jump diffusion process with stochastic volatility. By employing a risk-minimization criterion, we obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and consequently a linear complementarity problem (LCP for American option price. An iterative method is then established to solve the LCP problem for American put option price. Our numerical results show that the model and numerical scheme are robust in capturing the feature of incomplete finance market, particularly the influence of market volatility on the price of American options.
Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond Puzzle.
Longstaff, Francis A
1992-01-01
Market prices for callable Treasury bonds often imply negative values for the implicit call option. The author considers a variety of possible explanations for these negative values including the Treasury's track record in calling bonds optimally, tax-related effects, tax-timing options, and bond liquidity. None of these factors accounts for the negative values. Although the costs of short selling may explain why these apparent arbitrage opportunities persist over time, why these implicit cal...
Options for pricing ancillary services in a deregulated power system
Yamin, Hatim Yahya
2001-07-01
GENCOs in restructured systems are compensated for selling energy in the market. In a restructured market, a mechanism is required to entice participants in the market to provide ancillary services and to ensure adequate compensation that would guarantee its economic viability. The ISO controls the dispatch of generation, manages the reliability of the transmission grid, provides open access to the transmission, buys and provides ancillary services as required, coordinates day-ahead, hour-ahead schedules and performs real time balancing of load and generation, settles real time imbalances and ancillary services sales and purchases. The ISO, also, administers congestion management protocols for the transmission grid. Since the ISO does not own any generating units it must ensure that there is enough reserves for maintaining reliability according to FERC regulations, and sufficient unloaded generating capacity for balancing services in a real-time market. The ISO could meet these requirements by creating a competitive market for ancillary services, which are metered and remain unbundled to provide an accurate compensation for each supplier and cost to each consumer, In this study, we give an overview for restructuring and ancillary services in a restructured power marketplace. Also, we discuss the effect of GENCOs' actions in the competitive energy and ancillary service markets. In addition, we propose an auction market design for hedging ancillary service costs in California market. Furthermore, we show how to include the n-1 and voltage contingencies in security constrained unit commitment. Finally, we present two approaches for GENCOs' unit commitment in a restructured power market; one is based on game theory and the other is based on market price forecasting. In each of the two GENCOs' unit commitment approaches, we discuss the GENCOs' optimal bidding strategies in energy and ancillary service markets to maximize the GENCOs' profit.
An irregular grid approach for pricing high-dimensional American options
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2008-01-01
We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting. The method is centered around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE
Introduction to the mathematics of finance from risk management to options pricing
Roman, Steven
2004-01-01
The Mathematics of Finance has become a hot topic in applied mathematics ever since the discovery of the Black-Scholes option pricing formulas in 1973. Unfortunately, there are very few undergraduate textbooks in this area. This book is specifically written for upper division undergraduate or beginning graduate students in mathematics, finance or economics. With the exception of an optional chapter on the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the book concentrates on discrete derivative pricing models, culminating in a careful and complete derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formulas as a limiting case of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein discrete model. The final chapter is devoted to American options. The mathematics is not watered down but is appropriate for the intended audience. No measure theory is used and only a small amount of linear algebra is required. All necessary probability theory is developed in several chapters throughout the book, on a "need-to-know" basis. No background in finance is required, sinc...
Pricing long-term options with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates
van Haastrecht, A.
2010-01-01
The markets for long-term options have expanded tremendously over the last decade. Nowadays many of these derivatives along with pension schemes and insurance products depend on joint changes in stock prices, interest rates and inflation. As a result the dependencies between the underlying assets
Pricing early-exercise and discrete barrier options by Shannon wavelet expansions
Maree, S. C.; Ortiz-Gracia, L.; Oosterlee, C. W.
2017-01-01
We present a pricing method based on Shannon wavelet expansions for early-exercise and discretely-monitored barrier options under exponential L,vy asset dynamics. Shannon wavelets are smooth, and thus approximate the densities that occur in finance well, resulting in exponential convergence.
An Irregular Grid Approach for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2004-01-01
We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting.The method is centred around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid.We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE
Jiang, George J.; Sluis, Pieter J. van der
1999-01-01
While the stochastic volatility (SV) generalization has been shown to improve the explanatory power over the Black-Scholes model, empirical implications of SV models on option pricing have not yet been adequately tested. The purpose of this paper is to first estimate a multivariate SV model using
Pricing and hedging high-dimensional American options : an irregular grid approach
Berridge, S.; Schumacher, H.
2002-01-01
We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high dimensional setting. The method is centred around the approximation of the associated variational inequality on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE
Two-Dimensional Fourier Cosine Series Expansion Method for Pricing Financial Options
Ruijter, M.J.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2012-01-01
The COS method for pricing European and Bermudan options with one underlying asset was developed in [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 31 (2008), pp. 826--848] and [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, Numer. Math., 114 (2009), pp. 27--62]. In this paper, we extend the method to higher
A Generic Decomposition Formula for Pricing Vanilla Options under Stochastic Volatility Models
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Raúl Merino
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model, extending a previous decomposition formula for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used for this purpose are nonanticipative. In particular, we also see that equivalent results can be obtained by using Functional Itô Calculus. Using the same generalizing ideas, we also extend to nonexponential models the alternative call option price decomposition formula written in terms of the Malliavin derivative of the volatility process. Finally, we give a general expression for the derivative of the implied volatility under both the anticipative and the nonanticipative cases.
Fractional Order Stochastic Differential Equation with Application in European Option Pricing
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Qing Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Memory effect is an important phenomenon in financial systems, and a number of research works have been carried out to study the long memory in the financial markets. In recent years, fractional order ordinary differential equation is used as an effective instrument for describing the memory effect in complex systems. In this paper, we establish a fractional order stochastic differential equation (FSDE model to describe the effect of trend memory in financial pricing. We, then, derive a European option pricing formula based on the FSDE model and prove the existence of the trend memory (i.e., the mean value function in the option pricing formula when the Hurst index is between 0.5 and 1. In addition, we make a comparison analysis between our proposed model, the classic Black-Scholes model, and the stochastic model with fractional Brownian motion. Numerical results suggest that our model leads to more accurate and lower standard deviation in the empirical study.
Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution
Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng
2009-01-01
We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.
Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method
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Fei Lung Yuen
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.
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Shu Wing Ho
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.
Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution
Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.
2017-03-01
The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.
Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim
in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...
The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor
We explore the pricing of tail risk as manifest in index options across international equity markets. The risk premium associated with negative tail events displays persistent shifts, unrelated to volatility. This tail risk premium is a potent predictor of future equity returns, while option......-implied volatility only forecasts the future return variation. Hence, compensation for negative jump risk is the primary driver of the equity premium across all indices, whereas the reward for pure diffusive variance risk is largely unrelated to future equity returns. We also document pronounced commonalities...
The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard
We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statisticaltech......We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric...... components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) modelfor the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity of implied volatility inthe forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility is a biased and ineﬃcient forecast in thebond market. However, implied volatility does...
Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study
Montero, Miquel
2009-07-01
Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.
A Collocation Method by Moving Least Squares Applicable to European Option Pricing
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M. Amirfakhrian
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The subject matter of the present inquiry is the pricing of European options in the actual form of numbers. To assess the numerical prices of European options, a scheme independent of any kind of mesh but rather powered by moving least squares (MLS estimation is made. In practical terms, first the discretion of time variable is implemented and then, an MLS-powered method is applied for spatial approximation. As, unlike other methods, these courses of action mentioned here don't rely on a mesh, one can firmly claim they are to be categorized under mesh-less methods. And, of course, at the end of the paper, various experiments are offered to prove how efficient and how powerful the introduced approach is.
Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.
Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan
2010-03-01
Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.
Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission
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Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose
2010-01-01
The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)
Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets
Nassim N. Taleb
2014-01-01
Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...
Computational intelligence applications to option pricing, volatility forecasting and value at risk
Mostafa, Fahed; Chang, Elizabeth
2017-01-01
The results in this book demonstrate the power of neural networks in learning complex behavior from the underlying financial time series data . The results in this book also demonstrate how neural networks can successfully be applied to volatility modeling, option pricings, and value at risk modeling. These features allow them to be applied to market risk problems to overcome classical issues associated with statistical models. .
Quantum Mechanics, Path Integrals and Option Pricing: Reducing the Complexity of Finance
Baaquie, Belal E.; Coriano, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani
2002-01-01
Quantum Finance represents the synthesis of the techniques of quantum theory (quantum mechanics and quantum field theory) to theoretical and applied finance. After a brief overview of the connection between these fields, we illustrate some of the methods of lattice simulations of path integrals for the pricing of options. The ideas are sketched out for simple models, such as the Black-Scholes model, where analytical and numerical results are compared. Application of the method to nonlinear sy...
Darsinos, T.; Satchell, S.E.
2001-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are naturally oriented towards pooling in a rigorous way information from separate sources. It has been suggested that both historical and implied volatilities convey information about future volatility. However, typically in the literature implied and return volatility series are fed separately into models to provide rival forecasts of volatility or options prices. We develop a formal Bayesian framework where we can merge the backward looking information as r...
Black-Scholes finite difference modeling in forecasting of call warrant prices in Bursa Malaysia
Mansor, Nur Jariah; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd
2014-07-01
Call warrant is a type of structured warrant in Bursa Malaysia. It gives the holder the right to buy the underlying share at a specified price within a limited period of time. The issuer of the structured warrants usually uses European style to exercise the call warrant on the maturity date. Warrant is very similar to an option. Usually, practitioners of the financial field use Black-Scholes model to value the option. The Black-Scholes equation is hard to solve analytically. Therefore the finite difference approach is applied to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. The central in time and central in space scheme is produced to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. It allows the warrant holder to forecast the value of the call warrant prices before the expiry date.
Zhang, Wei-Guo; Li, Zhe; Liu, Yong-Jun
2018-01-01
In this paper, we study the pricing problem of the continuously monitored fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options in a mixed fractional Brownian motion environment. First, we derive both closed-form solutions and mixed fractional partial differential equations for fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options based on delta-hedging strategy and partial differential equation method. Second, we present the lower and upper bounds of the prices of fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options under the assumption that both risk-free interest rate and volatility are interval numbers. Finally, numerical studies are performed to illustrate the performance of our proposed pricing model.
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Ozdogan, Sibel; Arikol, Mahir
1992-01-01
We discuss the impacts of SO 2 emission regulations and fuel prices on levellized energy costs of industrial steam generation options. A computer model called INDUSTEAM has been utilized. The steam-supply options comprise conventional grate-firing, bubbling and circulating fluidized beds, fuel-oil, and natural-gas-fired systems. Fuels of different SO 2 pollution potential have been evaluated assuming six environmental scenarios and varying fuel prices. A capacity range of 10-90 MW th is covered. (author)
Numerically pricing American options under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion model
Chen, Wenting; Yan, Bowen; Lian, Guanghua; Zhang, Ying
2016-06-01
In this paper, we introduce a robust numerical method, based on the upwind scheme, for the pricing of American puts under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion (GMFBM) model. By using portfolio analysis and applying the Wick-Itô formula, a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the prices of vanilla options under the GMFBM is successfully derived for the first time. Based on this, we formulate the pricing of American puts under the current model as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Unlike the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) model or the generalized B-S model discussed in Cen and Le (2011), the newly obtained LCP under the GMFBM model is difficult to be solved accurately because of the numerical instability which results from the degeneration of the governing PDE as time approaches zero. To overcome this difficulty, a numerical approach based on the upwind scheme is adopted. It is shown that the coefficient matrix of the current method is an M-matrix, which ensures its stability in the maximum-norm sense. Remarkably, we have managed to provide a sharp theoretic error estimate for the current method, which is further verified numerically. The results of various numerical experiments also suggest that this new approach is quite accurate, and can be easily extended to price other types of financial derivatives with an American-style exercise feature under the GMFBM model.
Baaquie, Belal E; Liang, Cui
2007-01-01
The quantum finance pricing formulas for coupon bond options and swaptions derived by Baaquie [Phys. Rev. E 75, 016703 (2006)] are reviewed. We empirically study the swaption market and propose an efficient computational procedure for analyzing the data. Empirical results of the swaption price, volatility, and swaption correlation are compared with the predictions of quantum finance. The quantum finance model generates the market swaption price to over 90% accuracy.
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Xisheng Yu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The paper by Liu (2010 introduces a method termed the canonical least-squares Monte Carlo (CLM which combines a martingale-constrained entropy model and a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to price American options. In this paper, we first provide the convergence results of CLM and numerically examine the convergence properties. Then, the comparative analysis is empirically conducted using a large sample of the S&P 100 Index (OEX puts and IBM puts. The results on the convergence show that choosing the shifted Legendre polynomials with four regressors is more appropriate considering the pricing accuracy and the computational cost. With this choice, CLM method is empirically demonstrated to be superior to the benchmark methods of binominal tree and finite difference with historical volatilities.
Group Classification of a General Bond-Option Pricing Equation of Mathematical Finance
Motsepa, Tanki; Khalique, Chaudry Masood; Molati, Motlatsi
2014-01-01
We carry out group classification of a general bond-option pricing equation. We show that the equation admits a three-dimensional equivalence Lie algebra. We also show that some of the values of the constants which result from group classification give us well-known models in mathematics of finance such as Black-Scholes, Vasicek, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. For all such values of these arbitrary constants we obtain Lie point symmetries. Symmetry reductions are then obtained and group invariant so...
Group Classification of a General Bond-Option Pricing Equation of Mathematical Finance
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Tanki Motsepa
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We carry out group classification of a general bond-option pricing equation. We show that the equation admits a three-dimensional equivalence Lie algebra. We also show that some of the values of the constants which result from group classification give us well-known models in mathematics of finance such as Black-Scholes, Vasicek, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. For all such values of these arbitrary constants we obtain Lie point symmetries. Symmetry reductions are then obtained and group invariant solutions are constructed for some cases.
Finite Volume Method for Pricing European Call Option with Regime-switching Volatility
Lista Tauryawati, Mey; Imron, Chairul; Putri, Endah RM
2018-03-01
In this paper, we present a finite volume method for pricing European call option using Black-Scholes equation with regime-switching volatility. In the first step, we formulate the Black-Scholes equations with regime-switching volatility. we use a finite volume method based on fitted finite volume with spatial discretization and an implicit time stepping technique for the case. We show that the regime-switching scheme can revert to the non-switching Black Scholes equation, both in theoretical evidence and numerical simulations.
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Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study option pricing with risk-minimization criterion in an incomplete market where the dynamics of the risky underlying asset are governed by a jump diffusion equation. We obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative in the minimal martingale measure and a partial integrodifferential equation (PIDE of European call option. In a special case, we get the exact solution for European call option by Fourier transformation methods. Finally, we employ the pricing kernel to calculate the optimal portfolio selection by martingale methods.
Valuation of wind power distributed generation by using Longstaff–Schwartz option pricing method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Díaz, Guzmán; Moreno, Blanca; Coto, José; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier
2015-01-01
Highlights: • We analyze the economic value of wind power distributed generation (DG) projects. • Unlike NPV, RO approach accounts for the flexibility for decision-making. • We adapt Longstaff–Schwartz (LS) option pricing to multivariate wind power setting. • LS finds optimal times for DG investment under revenue uncertainty and decaying costs. • We find this method best suited for valuating DG projects of expected low revenue. - Abstract: In the context of decaying capital cost and uncertain revenues, prospective valuation of a wind power distributed generation (DG) project is difficult. The conventional net present value (NPV) presents a static picture that does not account for the value of waiting for better market conditions to proceed with a DG investment. On the contrary, real options (RO) analysis does account for the managerial flexibility to switch between options over the investment horizon. In this paper we argue that the value of a DG wind-based project can be revisited by means of Longstaff–Schwartz method, originally intended for the evaluation of American financial options. The adaption of this method to the wind power DG setting provides a means for (i) efficiently dealing with the several stochastic processes involved (spot electricity prices and possibly various wind speed processes) avoiding the curse of dimensionality, (ii) accounting for the decaying capital cost of DG, and (iii) solving the perfect foresight problem presented by Monte Carlo conventional simulations. We present in this paper the procedure to follow when applying the method to the wind power DG setting. Particularly, we discuss the standardization of the wind speed and spot price processes, and the advantages of building a state space model that includes all the correlated processes by adequately transforming Box–Jenkins and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models. Also we discuss the representation of the capital cost forecast by means of learning curves. On the whole, we
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gatfaoui, Hayette
2015-01-01
We consider a firm, which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business. The firm selects the energy source, which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon. Assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window, the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date T. In this light, the firm's energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk-free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price, and a short position in a European put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too. As a result, the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs. Modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the European put, we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis. Hence, our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source (i.e. minimizing energy costs). Moreover, we provide a price for the cost-reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one (i.e. hedging energy price risk). - Highlights: • We consider a firm, which chooses either crude oil or natural gas as an energy source. • The capability to switch offers the firm a hedge against energy commodity price risk. • A European put option prices the ability to switch from crude oil to natural gas. • The capability to switch between two energy sources reduces the firm's energy costs. • The discount illustrates the efficiency of the energy management policy (e.g. timing).
Baaquie, Belal E
2007-01-01
European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.
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Emlyn Flint
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memory, an issue that has heretofore not received much attention. Aim: We address several theoretical and practical issues in option pricing and implied volatility calibration in a fractional Black–Scholes market. We introduce a novel eight-parameter fractional Black–Scholes-inspired (FBSI model for the implied volatility surface, and consider in depth the issue of calibration. One of the main benefits of such a model is that it allows one to decompose implied volatility into an independent long-memory component – captured by an implied Hurst exponent – and a conditional implied volatility component. Such a decomposition has useful applications in the areas of derivatives trading, risk management, delta hedging and dynamic asset allocation. Setting: The proposed FBSI volatility model is calibrated to South African equity index options data as well as South African Rand/American Dollar currency options data. However, given the focus on the theoretical development of the model, the results in this paper are applicable across all financial markets. Methods: The FBSI model essentially combines a deterministic function form of the 1-year implied volatility skew with a separate deterministic function for the implied Hurst exponent, thus allowing one to model both observed implied volatility surfaces as well as decompose them into independent volatility and long-memory components respectively. Calibration of the model makes use of a quasi-explicit weighted
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Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Cecere, Liliana
2016-01-01
Highlights: • We develop a method to compute the parameters of the CEV model implied by American options. • This is the first procedure for calibrating the CEV model to American option prices. • The proposed approach is extensively tested on the NYSE market. • The novel method turns out to be very efficient in computing the CEV model parameters. • The CEV model provides only a marginal improvement over the lognormal model. - Abstract: We develop a highly efficient procedure to forecast the parameters of the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model implied by American options. In particular, first of all, the American option prices predicted by the CEV model are calculated using an accurate and fast finite difference scheme. Then, the parameters of the CEV model are obtained by minimizing the distance between theoretical and empirical option prices, which yields an optimization problem that is solved using an ad-hoc numerical procedure. The proposed approach, which turns out to be very efficient from the computational standpoint, is used to test the goodness-of-fit of the CEV model in predicting the prices of American options traded on the NYSE. The results obtained reveal that the CEV model does not provide a very good agreement with real market data and yields only a marginal improvement over the more popular Black–Scholes model.
Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana
2010-01-01
Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Pacelli, Graziella; Radi, Davide
2016-01-01
We deal with the problem of pricing barrier options on an underlying described by the mixed fractional Brownian model. To this aim, we consider the initial-boundary value partial differential problem that yields the option price and we derive an integral representation of it in which the integrand functions must be obtained solving Volterra equations of the first kind. In addition, we develop an ad-hoc numerical procedure to solve the integral equations obtained. Numerical simulations reveal that the proposed method is extremely accurate and fast, and performs significantly better than the finite difference method.
Wang, Xiao-Tian
2011-05-01
This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.
On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance
Veestraeten, D.
2017-01-01
The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance model is not a martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the price for which put-call parity holds and the price that represents the lowest cost of
On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance
Veestraeten, D.
2014-01-01
The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model is a strict local martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the risk-neutral call price and an alternative price that is linked to the unique
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.
1993-01-01
Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Verdonk, M.; Brink, C.; Vollebergh, H.; Roelfsema, M.
2013-04-15
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key instrument of EU climate policy, providing a clear reduction pathway for CO2 emissions. The current carbon price (of about 3 euros per tonne of CO2, April 2013) is much lower than previously expected (which was around 30 euros) and is likely to remain low for a long time. This fuels doubts about whether the ETS will remain a key policy instrument in the long term. Such doubts also increase investment uncertainty, which is likely to have a negative impact on further investments in low-carbon technologies needed for a low-carbon economy in 2050. In November 2012, the European Commission put forward six options for a more structural reform of the EU ETS. The proposed options vary from reducing the cap and expanding the ETS to include other sectors, to strengthening the ETS by measures directly affecting allowance prices. The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (IenM) asked the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to assess the impact of these options. Four categories of options for reforming the ETS were evaluated: (1) reducing the supply of emission allowances; (2) expanding the ETS by including other sectors; (3) a minimum price for auctioned allowances; and (4) combining ETS with a carbon tax. Recently, the European Parliament voted against the European Commission's proposal to temporarily set aside emission allowances. In an earlier assessment of this proposal, PBL concluded that the impact of this backloading proposal on CO2 prices is likely to be limited, because the total amount of allowances up to 2020 would remain unchanged. All options analysed would reduce emissions and cause the emission price to increase. A minimum price on carbon, however, would provide the best opportunity to make the ETS more robust against unforeseen events, such as a further deterioration of the economy. Such a minimum price would result in more emission reductions if abatement proves to be cheaper
2010-10-01
... and Service Contract Act-Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). 52.222-43 Section 52... Standards Act and Service Contract Act—Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). As prescribed in 22.1006(c)(1), insert the following clause: Fair Labor Standards Act and Service Contract Act...
Martingale approach in pricing and hedging European options under regime-switching
Grigori N. Milstein; Vladimir Spokoiny
2011-01-01
The paper focuses on the problem of pricing and hedging a European contingent claim for an incomplete market model, in which evolution of price processes for a saving account and stocks depends on an observable Markov chain. The pricing function is evaluated using the martingale approach. The equivalent martingale measure is introduced in a way that the Markov chain remains the historical one, and the pricing function satisfies the Cauchy problem for a system of linear parabolic equations. It...
78 FR 10265 - Pricing for the 2013 Commemorative Coin Programs-Silver and Clad Coin Options
2013-02-13
.... SUMMARY: The United States Mint is announcing prices for the 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Silver.... Introductory Product price Regular price 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial $54.95 $59.95 Proof Silver Dollar 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial 50.95 55.95 Uncirculated Silver Dollar 2013 5-Star Generals...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melanie Gopaul
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Changes in consumer lifestyle patterns have had a great impact on the fast-food industry worldwide and the demand for heathier food has forced such a growing industry to offer more alternatives to cater for these consumers. Many fast-food outlets have introduced healthier food options to their menus. However, there seems to be a common perception among consumers that healthier food options are more expensive. The primary research aim that pended from the literature was therefore to determine South African consumers’ level of satisfaction with the price and value of the healthier food options available at fast-food outlets. The results may assist fast-food outlets in adjusting their pricing strategy and offering consumers better value for money. A mixed method approach was used to collect data whereby self-administered questionnaires comprising of closed-ended, open-ended and scaled response questions were distributed to respondents. The findings indicated a low level of satisfaction among South African consumers’ with the price and value of healthier options offered at fast-food outlet
Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Train, K.; Mehrez, G.
1992-07-01
We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.
Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Train, K.; Mehrez, G.
1992-07-01
We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.
2015-11-30
models ( Beckers 1980, Dupire 1997), the volatility depends on time and stock price through a deterministic func- tional. In both cases, in addition to...T1 ≤ T2 ≤ · · · ≤ Tn−1 are the regime switch- ing times caused by the semi-Markov process prior to t. For notational convenience, we denote θ−1 = θ0...of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petra Posedel
2006-12-01
Full Text Available The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie
2005-08-01
Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market
Flint, Emlyn; Maré, Eben
2017-01-01
Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memor...
Financial Engineering With Options and Its Implementation for Issuing of New Financial Innovations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martina Bobriková
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to focus on innovative structured products − investment certificates. The paper shows the creation techniques of a new discount basket certificate using two-asset correlation options, which play the central role in financial engineering. The possibilities of investment using given certificates are investigated for potential investors. Methodology: Methodology of the paper is based on European style two-asset correlation options in analytical expression whose payoff is based on two underlying assets with two strike prices. Due to the lack of real-traded two asset correlation option data, own calculations of option premiums are processed in statistical program R. Also, the pricing of the new discount basket certificate is examines. Approach: Theoretical value of the new discount basket certificate with different levels of its parameters on the stocks Facebook and Google is obtained and it is performed the analysis of the profitability for to the investor at the maturity date. Also, there is showed which parameters the investor should pay attention when deciding to invest into the given investment certificate. Findings: Specific characteristics of each proposed certificate are pointed out and compared to each other with conclusion that every certificate can be the most profitable in specific price development of the underlying assets, but not in every price development. Ideas on how this certificate can be part of a personal investment portfolio are also presented.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guardasoni C.
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A Semi-Analytical method for pricing of Barrier Options (SABO is presented. The method is based on the foundations of Boundary Integral Methods which is recast here for the application to barrier option pricing in the Black-Scholes model with time-dependent interest rate, volatility and dividend yield. The validity of the numerical method is illustrated by several numerical examples and comparisons.
An efficient pricing algorithm for swing options based on Fourier cosine expansions
Zhang, B.; Oosterlee, C.W.
2013-01-01
Swing options give contract holders the right to modify amounts of future delivery of certain commodities, such as electricity or gas. We assume that these options can be exercised at any time before the end of the contract, and more than once. However, a recovery time between any two consecutive
An efficient pricing algorithm for swing options based on Fourier cosine expansions
B. Zhang (Bo); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)
2013-01-01
htmlabstractSwing options give contract holders the right to modify amounts of future delivery of certain commodities, such as electricity or gas. We assume that these options can be exercised at any time before the end of the contract, and more than once. However, a recovery time between any two
New Evidence on Price and Volatility Effects of Stock Option Introductions
Kabir, M.R.
1997-01-01
This paper adds to the literature dealing with the effect of derivatives trading on underlying securities by examining option listings from the Netherlands. The effects on both stock returns and volatility are investigated using three types of samples, namely, listing of call options alone,
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ambrish Gupta
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The main objectives of this paper are to incorporate modification in Black-Scholes option pricing model formula by adding some new variables on the basis of given assumption related to risk-free interest rate, and also shows the calculation process of new risk-free interest rate on the basis of modified variable. This paper also identifies the various situations in empirical testing of modified and original Black-Scholes formula with respect to the market value on the basis of assumed and calculated risk-free interest rate.
Density Forecasts of Crude-Oil Prices Using Option-Implied and ARCH-Type Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tsiaras, Leonidas; Høg, Esben
The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994-2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices...... as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities...
Symmetries in jump-diffusion models with applications in option pricing and credit risk
J.K. Hoogland (Jiri); C.D.D. Neumann; M.H. Vellekoop
2002-01-01
textabstractIt is a well known fact that local scale invariance plays a fundamental role in the theory of derivative pricing. Specific applications of this principle have been used quite often under the name of `change of numeraire', but in recent work it was shown that when invoked as a fundamental
Symmetries in Jump-Diffusion Models with Applications in Option Pricing and Credit Risk
Hoogland, J.K.; Neumann, C.D.D.; Vellekoop, M.H.
It is a well known fact that local scale invariance plays a fundamental role in the theory of derivative pricing. Specific applications of this principle have been used quite often under the name of 'change of numeraire', but in recent work it was shown that when invoked as a fundamental first
Tight Error Bounds for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing for Exponential Levy Processes
Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Keissling, Jonas; Tempone, Raul
2016-01-01
for the discontinuities in the asset price. The Levy -Khintchine formula provides an explicit representation of the characteristic function of a L´evy process (cf, [6]): One can derive an exact expression for the Fourier transform of the solution of the relevant PIDE
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.
1999-01-01
This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix
Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Charlotte; Hansen, Charlotte Strunk
2002-01-01
We analyze the empirical properties of the volatility implied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options have not been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put option on the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond. We apply the LIBOR...
Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.
2016-01-01
A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.
Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation
Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue
2018-06-01
This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hampton, Michael
1999-01-01
This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper
Stability of participation in collective pension schemes: an option pricing approach
Chen, D.H.J.; Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Broeders, D.W.G.A.
2015-01-01
This paper contributes to the discussion about mandatory participation in collective funded pension schemes. It explores under what circumstances individual participants exercise the option to exit such scheme if participation is voluntary. First, we show how the willingness to participate increases
Stability of Participation in Collective Pension Schemes : An Option Pricing Approach
Chen, Damiaan; Beetsma, Roel; Broeders, D.
2015-01-01
This paper contributes to the discussion about mandatory participation in collective funded pension schemes. It explores under what circumstances individual participants exercise the option to exit such scheme if participation is voluntary. First, we show how the willingness to participate increases
Sustainability of participation in collective pension schemes : An option pricing approach
Chen, D.H.J.; Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Broeders, D.W.G.A.; Pelsser, A.A.J.
2017-01-01
This paper contributes to the discussion about mandatory participation in collective funded pension schemes. It explores under what circumstances individual participants exercise the option to exit such a scheme if participation is voluntary. We begin by showing how the willingness to participate
A Highly Efficient Shannon Wavelet Inverse Fourier Technique for Pricing European Options
Ortiz-Gracia, Luis; Oosterlee, C.W.
2016-01-01
In the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative error
A highly efficient Shannon wavelet inverse Fourier technique for pricing European options
L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)
2016-01-01
htmlabstractIn the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of
Many-core architectures boost the pricing of basket options on adaptive sparse grids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heinecke, Alexander; Jepsen, Jacob; Bungartz, Hans Joachim
2013-01-01
of the operator's parallelism, we are able to achieve nearly perfect strong scaling for the Black-Scholes solver. Our results show that typical problem sizes (5 dimensional basket options), require at least 4 NVIDIA K20X Kepler GPUs (inside a Cray XK7) in order to be faster than the Up-Down scheme running on 16...
2013-05-01
... chain. \\4\\ The term ``quote packet'' is defined in footnote 6 to OPRA's Fee Schedule as consisting of..., bid/ask and related market data. The term ``options chain'' is also defined in footnote 6 to OPRA's... essence, an OPRA Subscriber may obtain access to OPRA data in one of two ways: Either by signing a...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maxim Ioan
2009-05-01
Full Text Available In our paper we build a reccurence from generalized Garman equation and discretization of 3-dimensional domain. From reccurence we build an algorithm for computing values of an option based on time, momentan volatility of support and value of support on a
Research on Agricultural Product Options Pricing Based on Lévy Copula
Qiu, Hong
2017-11-01
China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. With the advancement of modern agriculture and the expansion of agricultural scale, the demand for farmers to avoid market risks is increasingly urgent. Option trading has the effect of attracting farmers’ intervention, promoting order agriculture development, perfecting agricultural support policy and promoting the development of agricultural futures market. Relative to the futures, the option transaction because the margin is low, reducing the trader’s entry threshold, you can make more small and medium investors to participate. This is not only active in the futures market, but also for many small and medium investors to provide effective financial management tools.
Li, Xibao
Residential time-of-use (TOU) rates have been in practice in the U.S. since the 1970s. However, for institutional, political, and regulatory reasons, only a very small proportion of residential customers are actually on these schedules. In this thesis, I explore why this is the case by empirically investigating two groups of questions: (1) On the "supply" side: Do utilities choose to offer TOU rates in residential sectors on their own initiative if state commissions do not order them to do so? Since utilities have other options, what is the relationship between the TOU rate and other alternatives? To answer these questions, I survey residential tariffs offered by more than 100 major investor-owned utilities, study the impact of various factors on utilities' rate-making behavior, and examine utility revealed preferences among four rate options: seasonal rates, inverted block rates, demand charges, and TOU rates. Estimated results suggest that the scale of residential sectors and the revenue contribution from residential sectors are the only two significant factors that influence utility decisions on offering TOU rates. Technical and economic considerations are not significant statistically. This implies that the little acceptance of TOU rates is partly attributed to utilities' inadequate attention to TOU rate design. (2) On the "demand" side: For utilities offering TOU tariffs, why do only a very small proportion of residential customers choose these tariffs? What factors influence customer choices? Unlike previous studies that used individual-level experimental data, this research employs actual aggregated information from 29 utilities offering optional TOU rates. By incorporating neo-classical demand analysis into an aggregated random coefficient logit model, I investigate the impact of both price and non-price tariff characteristics and non-tariff factors on customer choice behavior. The analysis indicates that customer pure tariff preference (which captures the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1991-01-01
The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored
A Model-Free No-arbitrage Price Bound for Variance Options
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bonnans, J. Frederic, E-mail: frederic.bonnans@inria.fr [Ecole Polytechnique, INRIA-Saclay (France); Tan Xiaolu, E-mail: xiaolu.tan@polytechnique.edu [Ecole Polytechnique, CMAP (France)
2013-08-01
We suggest a numerical approximation for an optimization problem, motivated by its applications in finance to find the model-free no-arbitrage bound of variance options given the marginal distributions of the underlying asset. A first approximation restricts the computation to a bounded domain. Then we propose a gradient projection algorithm together with the finite difference scheme to solve the optimization problem. We prove the general convergence, and derive some convergence rate estimates. Finally, we give some numerical examples to test the efficiency of the algorithm.
A Positivity-Preserving Numerical Scheme for Nonlinear Option Pricing Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shengwu Zhou
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A positivity-preserving numerical method for nonlinear Black-Scholes models is developed in this paper. The numerical method is based on a nonstandard approximation of the second partial derivative. The scheme is not only unconditionally stable and positive, but also allows us to solve the discrete equation explicitly. Monotone properties are studied in order to avoid unwanted oscillations of the numerical solution. The numerical results for European put option and European butterfly spread are compared to the standard finite difference scheme. It turns out that the proposed scheme is efficient and reliable.
Guo, Zhidong; Song, Yukun; Zhang, Yunliang
2013-05-01
The purpose of this comment is to point out the inappropriate assumption of “3αH>1” and two problems in the proof of “Theorem 3.1” in section 3 of the paper “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al. [H. Gu, J.R. Liang, Y. X. Zhang, Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs, Physica A 391 (2012) 3971-3977]. Then we show the two problems will be solved under our new assumption.
Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier
1994-06-01
The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies
2007-07-01
Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.
2007-01-01
Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs
2011-02-07
...-settled, European-style options. In the event of a corporate event that eliminates one of the underlying... Performance Options are highly similar to other index options cleared by OCC except for the identity and... similar corporate event. If the value of an underlying Relative Performance Index ceases to be published...
2011-03-30
...-settled, European-style options. In the event of a corporate event that eliminates one of the underlying... Options are highly similar to other index options cleared by OCC except for the identity and nature of the... similar corporate event. If the value of an underlying Relative Performance Index ceases to be published...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michal Šoltés
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates hedging analysis against an underlying price drop by using the Nova 1 strategy formed by standard vanilla and barrier options. There are used European down and knock-in put options together with barrier call options. Derived income functions from the secured positions in analytical expressions are presented. Based on the theoretical results, the hedged portfolio is applied to SPDR SandP Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF. The proposed hedging variants are analysed and compared with the recommendation of the best possibilities for investors.
Kiessling, Jonas
2014-05-06
Option prices in exponential Lévy models solve certain partial integro-differential equations. This work focuses on developing novel, computable error approximations for a finite difference scheme that is suitable for solving such PIDEs. The scheme was introduced in (Cont and Voltchkova, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 43(4):1596-1626, 2005). The main results of this work are new estimates of the dominating error terms, namely the time and space discretisation errors. In addition, the leading order terms of the error estimates are determined in a form that is more amenable to computations. The payoff is only assumed to satisfy an exponential growth condition, it is not assumed to be Lipschitz continuous as in previous works. If the underlying Lévy process has infinite jump activity, then the jumps smaller than some (Formula presented.) are approximated by diffusion. The resulting diffusion approximation error is also estimated, with leading order term in computable form, as well as the dependence of the time and space discretisation errors on this approximation. Consequently, it is possible to determine how to jointly choose the space and time grid sizes and the cut off parameter (Formula presented.). © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
赵金实; 霍佳震; 赵莹; 段永瑞
2011-01-01
在包含市场利率、现货价格波动率和期权期限三个重要期权定价影响因素的逆向主导型供应链期权协作模型基础上,通过对模型决策优化机制的分析和灵敏度分析的方法,借助Matlab软件工具,研究市场利率和现货价格波动率对期权定价和供应链绩效的影响.通过数值仿真分析,进一步计算市场利率和现货价格波动率对期权定价和供应链绩效影响的规律和临界值.获得对企业制定供应链期权契约具有指导意义的研究结论.%Companies are increasingly constructing customer-centric supply chains in order to cope with the unrelenting pressure of cost reduction. The customer-centric supply chain strategy emphasizes improvement of key factors such as market rates, volatility and option pricing terms via the coordination of supply chain partners. A review of literature on supply chain management shows that other factors,such as product production cost, product selling price and the relationship between supply chain partners, have been considered.Globalization requires that companies be more flexible and adaptive to the changes of market environment because of increased factor mobility and market access. Therefore, a company needs to consider many relevant factors, such as the cost of funds, the opportunity cost of scheduled capacity and the uncertainty risk of product price fluctuations, when constructing a customer-centric supply chain. This study proposes an option pricing optimization model to help a company manage its customer-centric supply chains. This option pricing optimization model considers the importance of market interest rates, product price volatility and option deadline. As a result,instead of managing supply chains from supplier's perspectives this model offers the possibility of managing supply chains from customer's perspectives. Our work places emphasis on the synergy of a B-S option pricing model and supply chain operation mechanisms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sijm, J.P.M.; Hers, J.S.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.
2008-02-01
Power prices in EU countries have increased significantly since the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) became effective on 1 January 2005. This suggests that these increases in power prices are due to this scheme, in particular the pass-through of the costs of EU allowances (EUAs) to cover the CO2 emissions of eligible installations. In all sectors, however - including the power sector - eligible installations have usually received almost all of their needed allowances for free during the first phase of the EU ETS (2005-07). In several EU countries, the coincidence of the increases in power prices and the implementation of the EU ETS has raised questions, and sometimes fierce political debate, on whether power producers have indeed passed through the costs of freely allocated CO2 allowances to electricity prices, and to what extent the increase in these prices can be attributed to this pass-through or to other factors. In addition, it has raised discussions on whether - and to what extent - the supposed passing through of these costs has led to additional profits for power producers, that is, the so-called 'windfall profits' induced by the EU ETS. Finally, the supposed ETSinduced increases in power prices and generators' profits has raised concerns affecting the legitimacy of the present EU ETS, including concerns regarding its impact on the international competitiveness of some powerintensive industries, the purchasing power of electricity end-users such as small households or, more generally, the distribution of social welfare among power producers and consumers. As a result, in several countries policy makers and stakeholders have suggested a variety of options to address these concerns, including changing the emissions trading allocation system, taxing windfall profits or controlling market prices of EU carbon allowances, electricity or both. Against this background, the objectives of this chapter include: (a) To analyse empirically the trends in power
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia
2010-07-01
The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)
Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin
2008-01-01
"This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. P. Girish
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Box spread is a trading strategy in which one simultaneously buys and sells options having the same underlying asset and time to expiration, but different exercise prices. This study examined the efficiency of European style S&P CNX Nifty Index options of National Stock Exchange, (NSE India by making use of high-frequency data on put and call options written on Nifty (Time-stamped transactions data for the time period between 1st January 2002 and 31st December 2005 using box-spread arbitrage strategy. The advantages of box-spreads include reduced joint hypothesis problem since there is no consideration of pricing model or market equilibrium, no consideration of inter-market non-synchronicity since trading box spreads involve only one market, computational simplicity with less chances of mis-specification error, estimation error and the fact that buying and selling box spreads more or less replicates risk-free lending and borrowing. One thousand three hundreds and fifty eight exercisable box-spreads were found for the time period considered of which 78 Box spreads were found to be profitable after incorporating transaction costs (32 profitable box spreads were identified for the year 2002, 19 in 2003, 14 in 2004 and 13 in 2005 The results of our study suggest that internal option market efficiency has improved over the years for S&P CNX Nifty Index options of NSE India.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lund, D.
1992-01-01
The report analyses the possibility that the lognormal diffusion process should be an equilibrium spot price process for an exhaustible resource. A partial equilibrium model is used under the assumption that the resource deposits have different extraction costs. Two separate problems have been pointed out. Under full certainty, when the process reduces to an exponentially growing price, the equilibrium places a very strong restriction on a relationship between the demand function and the cost density function. Under uncertainty there is an additional problem that during periods in which the price is lower than its previously recorded high, no new deposits will start extraction. 30 refs., 1 fig
A quantum model of option pricing: When Black-Scholes meets Schrödinger and its semi-classical limit
Contreras, Mauricio; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo; Ruiz, Aaron
2010-12-01
The Black-Scholes equation can be interpreted from the point of view of quantum mechanics, as the imaginary time Schrödinger equation of a free particle. When deviations of this state of equilibrium are considered, as a product of some market imperfection, such as: Transaction cost, asymmetric information issues, short-term volatility, extreme discontinuities, or serial correlations; the classical non-arbitrage assumption of the Black-Scholes model is violated, implying a non-risk-free portfolio. From Haven (2002) [1] we know that an arbitrage environment is a necessary condition to embedding the Black-Scholes option pricing model in a more general quantum physics setting. The aim of this paper is to propose a new Black-Scholes-Schrödinger model based on the endogenous arbitrage option pricing formulation introduced by Contreras et al. (2010) [2]. Hence, we derive a more general quantum model of option pricing, that incorporates arbitrage as an external time dependent force, which has an associated potential related to the random dynamic of the underlying asset price. This new resultant model can be interpreted as a Schrödinger equation in imaginary time for a particle of mass 1/σ2 with a wave function in an external field force generated by the arbitrage potential. As pointed out above, this new model can be seen as a more general formulation, where the perfect market equilibrium state postulated by the Black-Scholes model represent a particular case. Finally, since the Schrödinger equation is in place, we can apply semiclassical methods, of common use in theoretical physics, to find an approximate analytical solution of the Black-Scholes equation in the presence of market imperfections, as it is the case of an arbitrage bubble. Here, as a numerical illustration of the potential of this Schrödinger equation analogy, the semiclassical approximation is performed for different arbitrage bubble forms (step, linear and parabolic) and compare with the exact
2013-01-22
... Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information To Amend Section 3.5 of the OPRA Plan January 15, 2013... of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed....opradata.com . The OPRA Plan provides for the collection and dissemination of last sale and quotation...
2013-05-02
... Reporting Authority; Order Approving an Amendment to the Plan for Reporting of Consolidated Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information To Amend Section 3.5 of the OPRA Plan April 25, 2013. I... Options Last Sale Reports and Quotation Information (``OPRA Plan'').\\3\\ The proposed OPRA Plan [[Page...
Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas
2003-01-01
We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lingjiong Zhu
2015-07-01
Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rehez Ahlip
2015-01-01
model for the exchange rate with log-normal jump amplitudes and the volatility model with log-uniformly distributed jump amplitudes. We assume that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semianalytical formula for the price of the foreign exchange European call option.
Berglund, T.; Kabir, R.
1995-01-01
This paper analyzes systematic deviations of the observed futures price from the value predicted by the simple cost-of-carry relationship. A model to explain this deviation (the basis) is presented in Chen, Cuny, and Haugen (1995, henceforth CCH). According to CCH, the basis should be negatively
Marhold, Anna
2017-01-01
Fossil fuel subsidies harm the environment, add to health hazards caused by air pollution, and delay the energy transition. Scholars and practitioners have therefore been exploring ways to reform and eliminate them. This paper discusses the practice of energy dual pricing in the broader context of
Boone, Peter; Bosch, Frans
1996-01-01
textabstractIn 1991, Thurley and Wirdenius claimed that international companies operating in European countries could, and should, make a strategic choice whether or not to develop a "European" approach or style of management. After the acceptance of the Treaty of Maastricht, and with the new European Union preparing to absorb applicants from the European Free Trade Association, their claim is becoming even more important. Not surprisingly, a European style of management, or "European managem...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Rabbani
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Leasing currently plays an important role for the global economy. The equipment leasing earning acquired through leasing rather than cash or credit, has reached a dominant level. With this regards, this paper represents a basic mixed-integer non-linear programming model. The study deliberates a firm that leases new products and remanufactured leased merchandises. The proposed study considers the end of lease contract, which contains several options: Return the leased product, return the used product and purchase other remanufactured product and buying the leased product. The primary objective is to maximize the discrepancy between the revenue and the costs of a firm, which leases new products as well as selling remanufactured ones. The product deteriorates with time and the difference between a new and used good is obvious. The product must undergo a remanufacturing procedure before being sold as a remanufactured product.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bouchard, Bruno; Vu, Thanh Nam
2010-01-01
We provide an obstacle version of the Geometric Dynamic Programming Principle of Soner and Touzi (J. Eur. Math. Soc. 4:201-236, 2002) for stochastic target problems. This opens the doors to a wide range of applications, particularly in risk control in finance and insurance, in which a controlled stochastic process has to be maintained in a given set on a time interval [0,T]. As an example of application, we show how it can be used to provide a viscosity characterization of the super-hedging cost of American options under portfolio constraints, without appealing to the standard dual formulation from mathematical finance. In particular, we allow for a degenerate volatility, a case which does not seem to have been studied so far in this context.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
2014-10-15
Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.
SUCIU Titus
2013-01-01
In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...
R.P. Faber (Riemer)
2010-01-01
textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.
Symmetry methods for option pricing
Davison, A. H.; Mamba, S.
2017-06-01
We obtain a solution of the Black-Scholes equation with a non-smooth boundary condition using symmetry methods. The Black-Scholes equation along with its boundary condition are first transformed into the one dimensional heat equation and an initial condition respectively. We then find an appropriate general symmetry generator of the heat equation using symmetries and the fundamental solution of the heat equation. The symmetry generator is chosen such that the boundary condition is left invariant; the symmetry can be used to solve the heat equation and hence the Black-Scholes equation.
Fischer, Richard B.
1986-01-01
Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
. With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...
The information content of options
Navon, Yonatan
2017-01-01
The objective of this thesis is to examine the information content of stock options in financial markets. A key question in financial economics is how information diffuses across markets and how quickly it is reflected in security prices. This thesis aims at exploring this question by investigating the informational role that options play in financial markets. This is achieved by exploring the joint cross section of option and bond prices, the informational role of options in seasoned equity ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Peter Løchte
This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Peter Løchte
2007-01-01
This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartoli, A.; Cavicchioli, D.; Kremmydas, D.; Rozakis, S.; Olper, A.
2016-01-01
The growing demand of maize silage for biogas production in Northern Italy has triggered an intense debate concerning land rents, maize prices and their possible negative consequences on important agri-food chains. The aim of this work is to quantify the extent to which the rapid spread of biogas raised the maize price at regional level, increasing the demand of land for energy crops. For this purpose we applied a partial-equilibrium framework simulating the agricultural sector and the biogas industry in Lombardy, under two alternative schemes of subsidization policy. Results show that policy measures implemented in 2013 – reducing the average subsidy per kWh – may contribute to enforce the complementarity of the sector with agri-food chains, decreasing the competition between energy and non-energy uses. Compared to the old scheme, maize demand for biogas would decrease, lessening the market clearing price (as well as feed opportunity cost for livestock sector) and reducing land demand for energy purposes. - Highlights: •We investigate biogas production in Lombardy under two alternative policy scenarios. •We model the biogas sector using a partial equilibrium approach. •Past legislation significantly increases maize demand and its market clearing price. •New incentive system favors manure based plants (130 kWe) decreasing maize demand. •Wider, new policy mitigates past distortions and negative effects on maize price.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tristan Guillaume
2016-01-01
Full Text Available This paper shows how to value multiasset options analytically in a modeling framework that combines both continuous and discontinuous variations in the underlying equity or foreign exchange processes and a stochastic, two-factor yield curve. All correlations are taken into account, between the factors driving the yield curve, between fixed income and equity as asset classes, and between the individual equity assets themselves. The valuation method is applied to three of the most popular two-asset options.
48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.
2010-10-01
... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...
Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj
2011-01-01
Abstract Background This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. Methods A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adhy Listya Paramitha
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect
Pricing of Asian temperature risk
Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda
2009-01-01
Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peerapatanapokin Wiwat
2011-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. Methods A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. Results The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009. This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30% and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. Conclusions The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic
Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj
2011-07-05
This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MARTIN, Diógenes Manoel Leiva
2004-01-01
Full Text Available RESUMOEntre as suposições subjacentes do modelo Black-Scholes-Merton, as maiores polarizações empíricas são causadas por aquelas com uma volatilidade fixa do recurso subjacente. Este artigo discute as aproximações principais deste modelo.ABSTRACTAmong the underlying assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, the largest empirical biases are caused by those with a fixed volatility of the underlying asset. This article discusses the main approaches of this issue.RESUMENEntre las suposiciones subyacentes al modelo Black-Scholes-Merton, las mayores polarizaciones empíricas las provocan las que poseen una volatilidad fija del recurso adyacente.Este artículo trata de las principales aproximaciones a este modelo.
Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets
Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster
2001-01-01
This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...
卖空约束下金融市场欧式期权定价研究%Pricing European Options in a Financial Market with Short-sale Constraints
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
黎露
2012-01-01
摘 要:针对存在卖空约束金融市场上的期权定价问题,总结了3种定价方法,并在讨论超复制方法的基础上计算出无套利区间和唯一平价.重点分析了在超复制方法的模型中考虑参数股息率g(t),得出了无套利区间端点的更加有效的表述形式.%Aiming at the option pricing method in a financial market with short - sale constraints,three most important methods in this area were summarized. And especially based on the super - replicating method, the arbitrage - free interval and the u-nique fair price were figured out. Furthermore,the new parameter - dividend rate g(t) in the model was investigated and a more effective representation was obtained for the endpoints of the arbitrage - free interval.
Pricing Volatility Referenced Assets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alan De Genaro Dario
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993 stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993 model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Markland, J.T.
1992-01-01
Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature
Dynamique jointe stock/option et application aux stratégies de trading sur options
El Aoud , Sofiene
2015-01-01
This thesis explores theoretically and empirically the implications of the stock/option joint dynamics on applications related to option trading. In the first part of the thesis, we look into the relations between stock options and index options under the risk-neutral measure. The Capital Asset Pricing Model offers an adequate mathematical framework for this study as it provides a modeling approach for the joint dynamics between the stock and the index. As we compute option prices according t...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ott, S.H.
1992-01-01
This dissertation uses the real options framework to study the valuation and optimal investment policies for R and D projects. The models developed integrate and extend the literature by taking into account the unique characteristics of such projects including uncertain investment in R and D, time-to-build, and multiple investment opportunities. The models were developed to examine the optimal R and D investment policy for the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project but have general applicability. Models are development which model R and D investment as an information gathering process where R and D investment remaining changes as investment is expended. The value of the project increased as the variance of required investment increases. An extension of this model combines a stochastic benefit with stochastic investment. Both the value of the R and D project and the region prescribing continued investment increased. The policy implications are significant: When uncertainty of R and D investment is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment in R and D will result; the existence of uncertainty in R and D investment will cause R and D projects to experience larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment. The model combining stochastic investment with the stochastic benefit is applied to the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project. Investment in fusion should continue at the maximum level of $1 billion annually given current levels of costs of alternative fuels and the perceived uncertainty of R and D investment in the project. A model is developed to examine the valuation and optimal split of funding between R and D projects when there are two competing new technologies. Without interaction between research expenditures and benefits across technologies, the optimal investment strategy is to invest in one or the other technology or neither. The multiple technology model is applied to analyze competing R and D projects, namely
American options under stochastic volatility
Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.
2011-01-01
The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility
Diller, Hermann
2013-01-01
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid
2017-01-01
Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...
2013-03-18
... firms have indicated a preference that the premium pricing for Mini Options match what is currently... that they strongly agree with CBOE's request to mimic the pricing convention of standard options with mini-option contract pricing and note that they believe it is appropriate to allow penny-pricing for...
Tariff rebalancing and price structure in privatised utilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weyman-Jones, T.; Burns, P.
1996-01-01
The document contains the end of award report on research into re-balancing and price structure in privatised utilities, funded by the Economic and Social Science Research Council (ESRC). Ramsey pricing ideas in United Kingdom utilities were modelled under different forms of regulation and cost/price relationships measured. Alternative forms of regulation that permit Ramsey pricing were also evaluated. Option price theory is shown to be central to an understanding of incentive mechanisms and their relationship to regulatory options. (UK)
Price management mechanisms and the gas contract
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dickson, D.J.
1996-01-01
Pricing objectives and risk management strategies that can be achieved through the proper use of the standard gas contract, were discussed. Main topics of discussion were: (1) gas sales contract and convertible pricing, (2) gas contract and imbedded hedging, gas contracts and exchange traded instruments, (4) gas contracts fixed for floating swaps, and OTC options and exotics, (5) options and exotic price structures, and (6) advantages and disadvantages of using the gas contract versus the swap agreement
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Bo
2014-01-01
Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...
Joseph G. Haubrich
1998-01-01
The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.
The Amnesiac Lookback Option: Selectively Monitored Lookback Options and Cryptocurrencies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ho-Chun Herbert Chang
2018-05-01
Full Text Available This study proposes a strategy to make the lookback option cheaper and more practical, and suggests the use of its properties to reduce risk exposure in cryptocurrency markets through blockchain enforced smart contracts and correct for informational inefficiencies surrounding prices and volatility. This paper generalizes partial, discretely-monitored lookback options that dilute premiums by selecting a subset of specified periods to determine payoff, which we call amnesiac lookback options. Prior literature on discretely-monitored lookback options considers the number of periods and assumes equidistant lookback periods in pricing partial lookback options. This study by contrast considers random sampling of lookback periods and compares resulting payoff of the call, put and spread options under floating and fixed strikes. Amnesiac lookbacks are priced with Monte Carlo simulations of Gaussian random walks under equidistant and random periods. Results are compared to analytic and binomial pricing models for the same derivatives. Simulations show diminishing marginal increases to the fair price as the number of selected periods is increased. The returns correspond to a Hill curve whose parameters are set by interest rate and volatility. We demonstrate over-pricing under equidistant monitoring assumptions with error increasing as the lookback periods decrease. An example of a direct implication for event trading is when shock is forecasted but its timing uncertain, equidistant sampling produces a lower error on the true maximum than random choice. We conclude that the instrument provides an ideal space for investors to balance their risk, and as a prime candidate to hedge extreme volatility. We discuss the application of the amnesiac lookback option and path-dependent options to cryptocurrencies and blockchain commodities in the context of smart contracts.
On the Pricing of American Options.
1986-05-01
in the construction of a " hedging portfolio" (section 4). In particular, (2.7) and (2.8) imply n-d, i.e., that there exist exactly as many stocks as...called hedging property of the portfolio; we impose it by postulating that the process An t () n t t i At I f.(s)dX + If7o(s)X ii(s)ds fgds +V (3.7) i...European claim: the gains from the portfolio and the gains from the claim should coincide, so that no arbitrage opportunities could exist. Equivalently
26 CFR 1.422-2 - Incentive stock options defined.
2010-04-01
... demonstrated, for example, that the fair market value of the stock at the date of grant was based upon an... price being lower than the fair market value on which the option price was based. (3) Notwithstanding... provide that the option price per share is not less than the fair market value of the share on the date of...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duffie, D.
1999-01-01
This chapter with 58 references reviews the modelling and empirical behaviour of volatility in energy prices. Constant volatility and stochastic volatility are discussed. Markovian models of stochastic volatility are described and the different classes of Markovian stochastic volatility model are examined including auto-regressive volatility, option implied and forecasted volatility, Garch volatility, Egarch volatility, multivariate Garch volatility, and stochastic volatility and dynamic hedging policies. Other volatility models and option hedging are considered. The performance of several stochastic volatility models as applied to heating oil, light oil, natural gas, electricity and light crude oil are compared
Price-Matching leads to the Cournot Outcome
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Batsaikhan, Mongoljin; Tumennasan, Norovsambuu
Bertrand competition that the market price in the presence of a price-matching option ranges from the monopolistic price to the Bertrand price. Our result suggests that the effect of price-matching depends on whether the output is a choice variable for the firms.......We study the effects of price-matching in a duopoly setting in which each firm selects both its price and output, simultaneously. We show that the availability of a pricematching option leads to the Cournot outcome in this setting. This result is a stark contrast to the one obtained in the standard...
Heterogeneous Beliefs, Public Information, and Option Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Qin, Zhenjiang
In an incomplete market setting with heterogeneous prior beliefs, I show that public information and strike price of option have substantial infl‡uence on asset pricing in option markets, by investigating an absolute option pricing model with negative exponential utility investors and normally...... distributed dividend. I demonstrate that heterogeneous prior variances give rise to the economic value of option markets. Investors speculate in option market and public information improves allocational efficiency of markets only when there is heterogeneity in prior variance. Heterogeneity in mean is neither...... a necessary nor sufficient condition for generating speculations in option markets. With heterogeneous beliefs, options are non-redundant assets which can facilitate side-betting and enable investors to take advantage of the disagreements and the differences in con…dence. This fact leads to a higher growth...
Monte Carlo Simulation of an American Option
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gikiri Thuo
2007-04-01
Full Text Available We implement gradient estimation techniques for sensitivity analysis of option pricing which can be efficiently employed in Monte Carlo simulation. Using these techniques we can simultaneously obtain an estimate of the option value together with the estimates of sensitivities of the option value to various parameters of the model. After deriving the gradient estimates we incorporate them in an iterative stochastic approximation algorithm for pricing an option with early exercise features. We illustrate the procedure using an example of an American call option with a single dividend that is analytically tractable. In particular we incorporate estimates for the gradient with respect to the early exercise threshold level.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohamed N. Abdelghani
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with defaultable markets, one of the main research areas of mathematical finance. It proposes a new approach to the theory of such markets using techniques from the calculus of optional stochastic processes on unusual probability spaces, which was not presented before. The paper is a foundation paper and contains a number of fundamental results on modeling of defaultable markets, pricing and hedging of defaultable claims and results on the probability of default under such conditions. Moreover, several important examples are presented: a new pricing formula for a defaultable bond and a new pricing formula for credit default swap. Furthermore, some results on the absence of arbitrage for markets on unusual probability spaces and markets with default are also provided.
Options theory and strategic investment decisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mann, D.; Goobie, G.; MacMillan, L.
1992-01-01
The possible use of options pricing theory for evaluating long-term capital investments is discussed. Using the Black and Scholes option pricing model, five variables were evaluated for a hypothetical oil sands project. These variables are: stock price as determined by the earning power of the company; exercise price which equals the investment cost of the project; price standard deviation which is assumed to be 50%; the length of time for which the company will maintain its option to invest in the project, and finally the risk free rate which is approximately equal to the yield in long term government securities. A sensitivity analysis on these variables can provide management with information on how best to influence the option value. A more in-depth analysis could provide valuable information about strategic choice for large projects. 5 refs., 3 figs
Illiquidity Premia in the Equity Options Market
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Goyenko, Ruslan; Jacobs, Kris
Illiquidity is well-known to be a significant determinant of stock and bond returns. We report on illiquidity premia in the equity options market. An increase in option illiquidity decreases the current option price and implies higher expected option returns. This effect is statistically and econ......Illiquidity is well-known to be a significant determinant of stock and bond returns. We report on illiquidity premia in the equity options market. An increase in option illiquidity decreases the current option price and implies higher expected option returns. This effect is statistically...... and economically signifi…cant. It is robust across different empirical approaches and when including various control variables. The illiquidity of the underlying stock affects the option return negatively, consistent with a hedging argument: When stock market illiquidity increases, the cost of replicating...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner
trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...
Transfer Pricing - An Innovative Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ramona MAXIM
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents transfer pricing and elements of drafting the transfer pricing file by the big companies. The transfer pricing procedure was founded based upon Order no. 442/2016 and the Fiscal Procedure Code and it represents a method upon which the tax base is transferred from a high tax country to a country with low taxation. This legislation outlines the conditions which companies must observe in order to draft the transfer pricing documentation and the significance thresholds. The purpose to draft a transfer pricing file is to reduce the differences between prices and market value and the actual results of company taxation. Economic double taxation occurs when tax authorities apply price adjustments because the company did not respect the principle of market value. Keeping records of transfer pricing and practicing a price aligned to market requirements contribute to an understanding of business development and the creation of appropriate tax planning. Taking into account all these aspects and the fact that any taxpayer is tempted to pay the lowest possible fees, tax havens become an option. In this context we can speak of a tax haven as a loophole in the use of the market price.
Comparative analysis of dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes.
2015-06-01
The objective of this research is to investigate and compare the performances of different : dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes facilities. These pricing strategies include real-time : traffic responsive methods, as well as refund options a...
... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...
Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... that ensure adequate value addition and ultimate remunerative price for farmers' ... and integrating them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chevallier, B.
2009-01-01
The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)
Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options
Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin
2017-12-01
In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.
New options for purchasing electricity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-10-01
This guide is intended for small to medium commercial customers in Alberta and explains new options for purchasing electricity. Small to medium customers include corner stores, community centres, schools, small office buildings, and light industrial businesses. In the 1990s, private power producers in Alberta built 3,000 megawatts of new generation, adding 30 per cent more supply to the power grid in the province. Prices in the deregulated electricity market have fluctuated with natural gas prices, changing weather and changing power demands. The competitive electricity market was opened on January 1, 2001 in Alberta, offering consumers purchasing choices such as green power, multi-year contracts, or electricity rates under the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). The RRO was a transition mechanism that will end by December 31, 2003 at which time, small to medium commercial customers will have the option to shop around for competitive electricity contracts that provide a fixed price of power over time, or they can opt to stay with their current supplier and receive a regulated flow-through of market prices. Under the flow-through option, risk of future deferral charges is reduced, but electricity prices will probably change between billing periods. 1 fig
Expensing options solves nothing.
Sahlman, William A
2002-12-01
The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Groenewegen, G.G.
1992-01-01
On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab
2013-02-14
... customer bases of potential product users and they have indicated a preference that premium pricing for... market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for mini-options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between mini-options and standard options on the same security. \\3\\ See Securities...
26 CFR 1.1092(c)-2 - Equity options with flexible terms.
2010-04-01
...) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Wash Sales of Stock Or Securities § 1.1092(c)-2 Equity options with... applicable stock price for Corporation Y stock is $14.75. Using the bench marks for an equity option with..., because the highest available strike price less than the applicable stock price for an equity option with...
2006-01-01
Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.
2005-01-01
Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.
Perpetual American options within CTRWs
Montero, Miquel
2008-06-01
Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfill financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.
Perpetual American options within CTRW's
Montero, Miquel
2007-01-01
Continuous-time random walks are a well suited tool for the description of market behaviour at the smallest scale: the tick-to-tick evolution. We will apply this kind of market model to the valuation of perpetual American options: derivatives with no maturity that can be exercised at any time. Our approach leads to option prices that fulfil financial formulas when canonical assumptions on the dynamics governing the process are made, but it is still suitable for more exotic market conditions.
The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luis, J.B.
2001-01-01
The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg
Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maurice, J.
2001-01-01
The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)
Durable-Goods Monopolists, Network Effects and Penetration Pricing
Cyrus C.Y. Chu; Hung-Ken Chien
2005-01-01
We study the pricing problem of a durable-goods monopolist. With network effects, consumption externalities among heterogeneous groups of consumers generate a discontinuous demand function. Consequently, the lessor has to offer a low price in order to reach the mass market, whereas the seller has the option to build a customer base by setting a lower initial price and raise the price later in the mass market, which explains the practice of introductory pricing. Contrary to the existing litera...
Forecasting with Option-Implied Information
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young
2013-01-01
This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function...... of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1991-01-01
As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable
17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.
2010-04-01
... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after... extend credit in lieu thereof) from an option customer as payment of the purchase price in connection...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wijayatunga, P.D.C.
1994-01-01
Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed
2013-08-14
... offering pricing specific to Jumbo SPY Options because this is a new options product offered only on the... trading a new options product, Jumbo SPY Options,\\5\\ on May 10, 2013.\\6\\ Except for the difference in the... for Jumbo SPY Options to $0.00. This is a new options product and assessing a lower fee than would...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
2000-01-01
This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...
New Commitment Options: Compatibility with Emissions Trading
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2006-07-01
This paper considers different options for quantitative greenhouse gas emission commitments from the standpoint of their technical compatibility with emissions trading. These are dynamic targets, binding targets with price caps, non-binding targets, sector-wide targets/mechanisms, action targets, allowances and endowments, and long-term permits. This paper considers these options from the standpoint of their compatibility with emissions trading.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kemm, K R
1978-05-01
The global outlook is that nuclear reactors are here to stay and South Africa has already entered the nuclear power stakes. This article discusses the rocketing oil prices, and the alternatives that can be used in power generation, the good safety record of the nuclear industry and the effect that South Africa's first nuclear power station should have on the environment.
Jamshidian, F.
2007-01-01
The contract is described and market examples given. Essential theoretical developments are introduced and cited chronologically. The principles and techniques of hedging and unique pricing are illustrated for the two simplest nontrivial examples: the classical Black-Scholes/Merton/Margrabe exchange
On a Generalized Squared Gaussian Diffusion Model for Option Valuation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edeki S.O.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In financial mathematics, option pricing models are vital tools whose usefulness cannot be overemphasized. Modern approaches and modelling of financial derivatives are therefore required in option pricing and valuation settings. In this paper, we derive via the application of Ito lemma, a pricing model referred to as Generalized Squared Gaussian Diffusion Model (GSGDM for option pricing and valuation. Same approach can be considered via Stratonovich stochastic dynamics. We also show that the classical Black-Scholes, and the square root constant elasticity of variance models are special cases of the GSGDM. In addition, general solution of the GSGDM is obtained using modified variational iterative method (MVIM.
Option value of electricity demand response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)
2007-02-15
As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)
Option value of electricity demand response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.
2007-01-01
As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)
Shopping Center Financing: Pricing Loan Default Risk
Peter Chinloy; James Musumeci
1994-01-01
The financing structure of a shopping center is decomposed into an income security and two put options. These put options are respectively held by the borrower against the lender for default, and by the lender against an insurer or reinsurer. The prices of the put option depend on the loan-to-value ration of the loan and on the risk of the investment. The interest rate charged on the loan is the sum of four components: a riskless rate, lender production costs, and the net price of the put opt...
Option Derivatives in Electricity Hedging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Pavlátka
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Despite the high volatility of electricity prices, there is still little demand for electricity power options, and the liquidity on the power exchanges of these power derivatives is quite low. One of the reasons is the uncertainty about how to evaluate these electricity options and about finding the right fair value of this product. Hedging of electricity is associated mainly with products such as futures and forwards. However, due to new trends in electricity trading and hedging, it is also useful to think more about options and the principles for working with them in hedging various portfolio positions and counterparties. We can quite often encounter a situation when we need to have a perfect hedge for our customer’s (end user consuming electricity portfolio, or we have to evaluate the volumetric risk (inability of a customer to predict consumption, which is very similar to selling options. Now comes the moment to compare the effects of using options or futures to hedge these open positions. From a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available and the simplest method for evaluating option premiums, but there are some limitations that we have to consider.
Transfer pricing principles in VAT Law
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Dennis Ramsdahl
2011-01-01
The main part of the article is devoted to a critical analysis of the optional transfer pricing provisions in the EC VAT Directive in the light of the principle of fiscal neutrality. As an integrated part of this analysis, the VAT transfer pricing regime is considered in the light of the well......-known principles for transfer pricing in the area of income tax law, as set out in Art. 9 of the OECD Model Tax Convention. The last part of the article contains a brief discussion of to which extent it is desirable to harmonize the two tax systems´ transfer pricing rules....
Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options
Noureddine Krichene
2005-01-01
One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed...
Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Horowitz, I.; Woo, C.K.
2006-01-01
We explore three voluntary service options-real-time pricing, time-of-use pricing, and curtailable/interruptible service-that a local distribution company might offer its customers in order to encourage them to alter their electricity usage in response to changes in the electricity-spot-market price. These options are simple and practical, and make minimal information demands. We show that each of the options is Pareto-superior ex ante, in that it benefits both the participants and the company offering it, while not affecting the non-participants. The options are shown to be Pareto-superior ex post as well, except under certain exceptional circumstances. (author)
Modelling Callable Annuity Bonds with Interest-Only Optionality
Holst, Anders; Nalholm, Morten
2004-01-01
In this paper an investigation of the pricing of callable annuities with interest-only (I-O) optionality is conducted. First the I-O optionality feature of callable annuities is introduced. Next an algorithm for pricing callable annuities with I-O optionality using the finite difference methodology, is formulated. This is then used to investigate optimal strategies of I-O bonds and impacts on prices from the I-O optionality. It is found that the I-O feature necessitates a simul...
2013-08-06
... $200 the maximum strike price for which the strike price interval for series of XSP options may be $1. The Exchange also proposed to lower from $5 to $1 the minimum strike price interval for LEAPS and... capacity to handle any potential additional traffic associated with trading of P.M.-settled XSP options...
2012-07-26
... multiplier will be $100. The minimum tick size for series trading below $3 will be 0.05 ($5.00) and above $3... to list in-, at- and out-of-the- money strike prices (where the ``at-the-money'' strike price is 100... and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by the contract multiplier ($100). SPBAS options will...
A Call-Put Duality for Perpetual American Options
Alfonsi, Aurélien; Jourdain, Benjamin
2006-01-01
International audience; It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper investigates such a Call Put duality for perpetual American options. It turns out that the perpetual American Put price is equal to the perpetual American C...
Defaultable Game Options in a Hazard Process Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomasz R. Bielecki
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The valuation and hedging of defaultable game options is studied in a hazard process model of credit risk. A convenient pricing formula with respect to a reference filteration is derived. A connection of arbitrage prices with a suitable notion of hedging is obtained. The main result shows that the arbitrage prices are the minimal superhedging prices with sigma martingale cost under a risk neutral measure.
PRICE ON THE ORGANIC FOOD MARKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
GEORGE ATANASOAIE
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices are analyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products, distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage. This paper is based on the investigation of secondary sources, of specialized literature related to PAE consumers. The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or high level and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very important barrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communication policies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development.
THE PRICE ON THE ORGANIC PRODUCT MARKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ATĂNĂSOAIE GEORGE SEBASTIAN
2013-08-01
Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices areanalyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products,distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage.The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or highlevel and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very importantbarrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communicationpolicies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development
Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.
We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...
Shungnak Energy Configuration Options.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosewater, David Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2017-10-01
Power systems in rural Alaska villages face a unique combination of challenges that can increase the cost of energy and lowers energy supply reliability. In the case of the remote village of Shungnak, diesel and heating fuel is either shipped in by barge or flown in by aircraft. This report presents a technical analysis of several energy infrastructure upgrade and modification options to reduce the amount of fuel consumed by the community of Shungnak. Reducing fuel usage saves money and makes the village more resilient to disruptions in fuel supply. The analysis considers demand side options, such as energy efficiency, alongside the installation of wind and solar power generation options. Some novel approaches are also considered including battery energy storage and the use of electrical home heating stoves powered by renewable generation that would otherwise be spilled and wasted. This report concludes with specific recommendations for Shungnak based on economic factors, and fuel price sensitivity. General conclusions are also included to support future work analyzing similar energy challenges in remote arctic regions.
Brimblecombe, Julie; Ferguson, Megan; Liberato, Selma C; Ball, Kylie; Moodie, Marjory L; Magnus, Anne; Miles, Edward; Leach, Amanda J; Chatfield, Mark D; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; O'Dea, Kerin; Bailie, Ross S
2013-08-12
Indigenous Australians suffer a disproportionate burden of preventable chronic disease compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts--much of it diet-related. Increasing fruit and vegetable intakes and reducing sugar-sweetened soft-drink consumption can reduce the risk of preventable chronic disease. There is evidence from some general population studies that subsidising healthier foods can modify dietary behaviour. There is little such evidence relating specifically to socio-economically disadvantaged populations, even though dietary behaviour in such populations is arguably more likely to be susceptible to such interventions.This study aims to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of a price discount intervention with or without an in-store nutrition education intervention on purchases of fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks among remote Indigenous communities. We will utilise a randomised multiple baseline (stepped wedge) design involving 20 communities in remote Indigenous Australia. The study will be conducted in partnership with two store associations and twenty Indigenous store boards. Communities will be randomised to either i) a 20% price discount on fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks; or ii) a combined price discount and in-store nutrition education strategy. These interventions will be initiated, at one of five possible time-points, spaced two-months apart. Weekly point-of-sale data will be collected from each community store before, during, and for six months after the six-month intervention period to measure impact on purchasing of discounted food and drinks. Data on physical, social and economic factors influencing weekly store sales will be collected in order to identify important covariates. Intervention fidelity and mediators of behaviour change will also be assessed. This study will provide original evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of price discounts with or without an in-store nutrition education
Equity Options During the Shorting Ban of 2008
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nusret Cakici
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The Securities and Exchange Commission’s 2008 emergency order introduced a shorting ban of some 800 financials traded in the US. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the options market around the ban period. Using transaction level data from OPRA (The Options Price Reporting Authority, we study the options volume, spreads, pricing measures and option trade volume informativeness during the ban. We also consider the put–call parity relationship. While mostly statistically significant, economic magnitudes of our results suggest that the impact of the ban on the equity options market was likely not as dramatic as initially thought.
Nonlinear Pricing with Random Participation
Jean-Charles Rochet; Lars A. Stole
2002-01-01
The canonical selection contracting programme takes the agent's participation decision as deterministic and finds the optimal contract, typically satisfying this constraint for the worst type. Upon weakening this assumption of known reservation values by introducing independent randomness into the agents' outside options, we find that some of the received wisdom from mechanism design and nonlinear pricing is not robust and the richer model which allows for stochastic participation affords a m...
Stochastic Skew in Currency Options
Peter Carr; Liuren Wu
2004-01-01
We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that the risk-neutral distribution of currency returns is relatively symmetric on average. However, on any given date, the conditional currency return distribution can show strong asymmetry. This asymmetry varies greatly over time and often switch directions. We design and estimate a class of mode...
Getting real with real options
M. R Grasselli
2006-01-01
We apply a utility-based method to obtain the value of a finite-time investment opportunity when the underlying real asset is not perfectly correlated to a traded financial asset. Using a discrete-time algorithm to calculate the indifference price for this type of real option, we present numerical examples for the corresponding investment thresholds, in particular highlighting their dependence with respect to correlation and risk aversion.
Incentive effects of performance-vested stock options
Kuang, Y.
2007-01-01
The vesting of traditional stock options (TSOs) only depends on the passage of time and managerial compensation might merely reflect price increases in a rising market. As a reform on traditional stock option plans, performance targets have been introduced as a condition for option vesting. The use
Retrospective insights from real options in R&D
Lint, L.J.O.
2000-01-01
Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics
Static super-replicating strategies for a class of exotic options
Chen, X.; Deelstra, G.; Dhaene, J.; Vanmaele, M.
2008-01-01
In this paper, we investigate static super-replicating strategies for European-type call options written on a weighted sum of asset prices. This class of exotic options includes Asian options and basket options among others. We assume that there exists a market where the plain vanilla options on the
Tradeoffs between Price and Quality: How a Value Index Affects Preference Formation.
Creyer, Elizabeth H.; Ross, William T., Jr.
1997-01-01
Some of a group of 143 consumers were given a choice between higher-priced, higher-quality items and items with lower price and quality but higher value index (benefit/cost tradeoff); others were given price and quality information only. Consumers were more likely to choose lower-priced, higher-value options when the index information was…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2004-01-01
Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country
MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. I. Parshin
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.
17 CFR 1.35 - Records of cash commodity, futures, and option transactions.
2010-04-01
... paragraph (a-1)(5)(iii) of this section and to permit the reconstruction of the handling of the order from... contract for future delivery or underlying physical, strike price, and details of the purchase price of the... delivery, or underlying physical, strike price, details of the purchase price of the option, including...
Constrained Monopoly Pricing with Random Participation
Basaluzzo, Gabriel; Miravete, Eugenio J
2007-01-01
We present a flexible model of monopoly nonlinear pricing with endogenous participation decisions of heterogeneous consumers. We make use of the moments that define the few self-selecting tariff options that are commonly used to implement the optimal nonlinear tariff to estimate how demand and cost variables affect the pricing strategies offered by incumbent monopolists in several early U.S. local cellular telephone markets through the different elements of the theoretical model: marginal cos...
NASA policy on pricing shuttle launch services
Smith, J. M.
1977-01-01
The paper explains the rationale behind key elements of the pricing policy for STS, the major features of the non-government user policy, and some of the stimulating features of the policy which will open space to a wide range of new users. Attention is given to such major policy features as payment schedule, cost and standard services, the two phase pricing structure, optional services, shared flights, cancellation and postponement, and earnest money.
Using Partial Differential Equations for Pricing of Goods and Services
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Traykov Metodi
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This article is based on the methodology of comparative analysis, using an innovative approach for pricing of various goods and services. Benchmarking is the continuous search to find and adapt better pricing methods that leading to increased profits. We will consider the numerical solution of partial differential equations, based on Black-Scholes model for pricing of goods and services within European option. Also, we will present formulation and numerical behavior of explicit and implicit methods that can be use in pricing for company assets within European option.
Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives
Ning, Yumei
Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes
OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ante Nosić
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.
Rising prices squeeze gas marketer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lunan, D.
2000-06-19
Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers.
Rising prices squeeze gas marketer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lunan, D.
2000-01-01
Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers
Delta-gamma-theta Hedging of Crude Oil Asian Options
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juraj Hruška
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Since Black-Scholes formula was derived, many methods have been suggested for vanilla as well as exotic options pricing. More of investing and hedging strategies have been developed based on these pricing models. Goal of this paper is to derive delta-gamma-theta hedging strategy for Asian options and compere its efficiency with gamma-delta-theta hedging combined with predictive model. Fixed strike Asian options are type of exotic options, whose special feature is that payoff is calculated from the difference of average market price and strike price for call options and vice versa for the put options. Methods of stochastic analysis are used to determine deltas, gammas and thetas of Asian options. Asian options are cheaper than vanilla options and therefore they are more suitable for precise portfolio creation. On the other hand their deltas are also smaller as well as profits. That means that they are also less risky and more suitable for hedging. Results, conducted on chosen commodity, confirm better feasibility of Asian options compering with vanilla options in sense of gamma hedging.
Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mari, Carlo
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach
GARCH Option Valuation: Theory and Evidence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Ornthanalai, Chayawat
We survey the theory and empirical evidence on GARCH option valuation models. Our treatment includes the range of functional forms available for the volatility dynamic, multifactor models, nonnormal shock distributions as well as style of pricing kernels typically used. Various strategies...... for empirical implementation are laid out and we also discuss the links between GARCH and stochastic volatility models. In the appendix we provide Matlab computer code for option pricing via Monte Carlo simulation for nonaffine models as well as Fourier inversion for affine models....
Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition
Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc
2003-12-01
Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert
-competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...
7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...
Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader
Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju
1994-01-01
We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...
ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
TÜNDE VERES
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.
Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus
2011-01-01
In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.
A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dorn, Jochen
We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...
Electricity market risk management using forward contracts with bilateral options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chung, T.S.; Yu, C.W.; Wong, K.P.; Zhang, S.H.
2003-01-01
Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for risk management arrangements. A new electricity forward contract with bilateral financial options is introduced, which allows both seller and buyer to take advantage of flexibility in generation and consumption to obtain monetary benefits while simultaneously removing the risk of market price fluctuations. The option theory is incorporated to formulate the contract price. The strike prices of options are derived from solving an equilibrium model in which both the buyer and the seller aim to maximise their own profit. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed optional forward contract presents a more equitable and reasonable payoff structure that allows the buyer and seller to earn a larger overall expected benefit, and the contractual arrangement supports efficiency in economic dispatch of electricity production and consumption. The insights obtained from these results will be helpful to participants in the contractual decision-making process. (Author)
Regime-Switching Risk: To Price or Not to Price?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tak Kuen Siu
2011-01-01
“normative” issues to be addressed in pricing contingent claims under a Markovian, regime-switching, Black-Scholes-Merton model. We address this issue using a minimal relative entropy approach. Firstly, we apply a martingale representation for a double martingale to characterize the canonical space of equivalent martingale measures which may be viewed as the largest space of equivalent martingale measures to incorporate both the diffusion risk and the regime-switching risk. Then we show that an optimal equivalent martingale measure over the canonical space selected by minimizing the relative entropy between an equivalent martingale measure and the real-world probability measure does not price the regime-switching risk. The optimal measure also justifies the use of the Esscher transform for option valuation in the regime-switching market.
Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas
On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...
Secondary market prices and Mexico's Brady Deal
van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Claessens, C.A.M.F.
1993-01-01
Analyzes wether or not the use of official funds in debt reduction packages as in Mexico's 1989 Brady deal is tantamount to a creditor bailout. Review of events; option-pricing approach to sovereign debt valuation; market valuation of the Brady debt package; positive impact of Brady plan on debt
Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.
Stern, David
2002-01-01
Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…
Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium
Baele, Lieven; Driessen, Joost; Ebert, Sebastian; Londono Yarce, J.M.; Spalt, Oliver
The variance premium and the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models. We develop a tractable equilibrium model with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences that can overcome both challenges. The key insight is that the
Jean Imbs; Haroon Mumtaz; Morten O. Ravn; Hélène Rey
2009-01-01
We use a unique dataset on television prices across European countries and regions to investigate the sources of differences in price levels. Our findings are as follows: (i) Quality is a crucial determinant of price differences. Even in an integrated economic zone as Europe, rich economies tend to consume higher quality goods. This effect accounts for the lion’s share of international price dispersion. (ii) Sizable international price differentials subsist even for the same television sets. ...
Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana
2010-01-01
The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .
2010-04-07
... currency options traded on national securities exchanges will be treated and cleared as securities options...- settled foreign currency options traded on national securities exchanges will be treated and cleared as...-Settled Foreign Currency Options With One-Cent Exercise Prices April 1, 2010. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1...
ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING
TÜNDE VERES
2011-01-01
The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from m...
Cost-reflective electricity pricing: Consumer preferences and perceptions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Nina L.; Jeanneret, Talia D.; Rai, Alan
2016-01-01
In Australia, residential electricity peak demand has risen steeply in recent decades, leading to higher prices as new infrastructure was needed to satisfy demand. One way of limiting further infrastructure-induced retail price rises is via ‘cost-reflective’ electricity network pricing that incentivises users to shift their demand to non-peak periods. Empowering consumers with knowledge of their energy usage is critical to maximise the potential benefits of cost-reflective pricing. This research consulted residential electricity consumers in three Australian states on their perceptions and acceptance of two cost-reflective pricing scenarios (Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing) and associated technologies to support such pricing (smart meters, in-home displays and direct load control devices). An energy economist presented information to focus groups on the merits and limitations of each scenario, and participants’ views were captured. Almost half of the 53 participants were agreeable to Time-of-Use pricing, but did not have a clear preference for Peak Capacity pricing, where the price was based on the daily maximum demand. Participants recommended further information to both understand and justify the potential benefits, and for technologies to be introduced to enhance the pricing options. The results have implications for utilities and providers who seek to reduce peak demand. - Highlights: •Electricity price rises can be limited by ‘cost-reflective’ pricing. •We consulted residential electricity consumers on Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing. •Understanding of peak electricity demand must increase to enable demand shift. •Interactive website could enable consumers to evaluate pricing options. •Smart meter adoption may increase if voluntary and includes an in-home display.
Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jones, D. [TD Securities Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)
1997-08-01
Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management.
Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jones, D.
1997-01-01
Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jäkel, Ina Charlotte; Sørensen, Allan
This paper provides new evidence on manufacturing firms' output prices: in Denmark, on average, exported varieties are sold at a lower price (i.e. a negative exporter price premium) relative to only domestically sold varieties. This finding stands in sharp contrast to previous studies, which have...... found positive exporter price premia. We also document that the exporter price premium varies substantially across products (both in terms of sign and magnitude). We show that in a standard heterogeneous firms model with heterogeneity in quality as well as production efficiency there is indeed no clear......-cut prediction on the sign of the exporter price premium. However, the model unambiguously predicts a negative exporter price premium in terms of quality-adjusted prices, i.e. prices per unit of quality. This prediction is broadly borne out in the Danish data: while the magnitude of the premium varies across...
Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification
Panasenko Tetyana
2015-01-01
The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.
CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for electricity prices and operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.
2006-07-01
The experience with CO 2 trading and allowances prices in the last year is reviewed, with a focus on the factors influencing the price of electricity in EU countries. A statistical analysis investigates the relationship between the large increases in electricity prices experienced in 2005 and their relationship to CO 2 prices. In addition, a market simulation analysis using the COMPETES model is performed to assess the extent to which profit-maximizing generators, some of which possess market power, might pass on the opportunity cost of allowances to consumers. The paper concludes by reviewing possible options for policy makers to address the possible adverse implications of price increases caused by CO/sub 2/ trading.
Option Panels in Pure-Jump Settings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor
We develop parametric inference procedures for large panels of noisy option data in the setting where the underlying process is of pure-jump type, i.e., evolve only through a sequence of jumps. The panel consists of options written on the underlying asset with a (different) set of strikes...... specification for the risk-neutral asset return dynamics, the option prices are nonlinear functions of a time-invariant parameter vector and a time-varying latent state vector (or factors). Furthermore, no-arbitrage restrictions impose a direct link between some of the quantities that may be identified from...... the return and option data. These include the so-called jump activity index as well as the time-varying jump intensity. We propose penalized least squares estimation in which we minimize L_2 distance between observed and model-implied options and further penalize for the deviation of model-implied quantities...
The Early Exercise Premium Representation for American Options on Multiply Assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klimsiak, Tomasz; Rozkosz, Andrzej
2016-01-01
In the paper we consider the problem of valuation of American options written on dividend-paying assets whose price dynamics follow the classical multidimensional Black and Scholes model. We provide a general early exercise premium representation formula for options with payoff functions which are convex or satisfy mild regularity assumptions. Examples include index options, spread options, call on max options, put on min options, multiply strike options and power-product options. In the proof of the formula we exploit close connections between the optimal stopping problems associated with valuation of American options, obstacle problems and reflected backward stochastic differential equations
Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.
2001-01-01
We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium
Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)
2001-01-01
We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.
Valuation Struggles over Pricing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pallesen, Trine
2016-01-01
of creating political markets, and political prices, here understood as market distortion. This paper studies the ‘politics’ of pricing by following the adoption of the first feed-in tariff in France. Pricing as a way of achieving non-economic ends, such as climate mitigation, brings the values of several...... public goods into play, all the while prompting a translation of these values into a single price. Following the struggles over the pricing of wind power in the early 2000s, the study illustrates that rather than a pollution of the market sphere by that of politics, a politics of pricing can be observed...
The world price of jump and volatility risk
Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.
2006-01-01
Jump and volatility risk are important for understanding equity returns, option pricing and asset allocation. This paper is the first to study international integration of markets for jump and volatility risk, using data on index options for each of the three main global markets: US S&P 500 index
Factors influencing global antiretroviral procurement prices.
Wirtz, Veronika J; Forsythe, Steven; Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio
2009-11-18
Antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) are one of the most costly parts of HIV/AIDS treatment. Many countries are struggling to provide universal access to ARVs for all people living with HIV and AIDS. Although substantial price reductions of ARVs have occurred, especially between 2002 and 2008, achieving sustainable access for the next several decades remains a major challenge for most low- and middle-income countries. The objectives of the present study were twofold: first, to analyze global ARV prices between 2005 and 2008 and associated factors, particularly procurement methods and key donor policies on ARV procurement efficiency; second, to discuss the options of procurement processes and policies that should be considered when implementing or reforming access to ARV programs. An ARV-medicines price-analysis was carried out using the Global Price Reporting Mechanism from the World Health Organization. For a selection of 12 ARVs, global median prices and price variation were calculated. Linear regression models for each ARV were used to identify factors that were associated with lower procurement prices. Logistic regression models were used to identify the characteristics of those countries which procure below the highest and lowest direct manufactured costs. Three key factors appear to have an influence on a country's ARV prices: (a) whether the product is generic or not; (b) the socioeconomic status of the country; (c) whether the country is a member of the Clinton HIV/AIDS Initiative. Factors which did not influence procurement below the highest direct manufactured costs were HIV prevalence, procurement volume, whether the country belongs to the least developed countries or a focus country of the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief. One of the principal mechanisms that can help to lower prices for ARV over the next several decades is increasing procurement efficiency. Benchmarking prices could be one useful tool to achieve this.
2011-11-16
... price (expressed in volatility terms) T Time to expiration K i Strike price of i th option in portfolio... each SPX option in the S&P 500 variance trade. The System (1) calculates a baseline implied volatility... resulting output of the VIX formula serves as a new interim volatility value. The System then continues to...
2010-10-19
... the Options Price Reporting Authority have the necessary systems capacity to handle the additional... to meet their investment objectives. The Commission believes that the proposal strikes a reasonable... and the Options Price Reporting Authority have the necessary systems capacity to handle the additional...
2010-10-28
... necessary systems capacity to handle the additional traffic associated with the expanded range of strike... Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Change To Expand the Range of Strike Price Intervals for VIX Options October 21... amend Rule 24.9.01(e), Terms of Index Option Contracts, to expand the range of strike price intervals...
Option valuation with the simplified component GARCH model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dziubinski, Matt P.
We introduce the Simplified Component GARCH (SC-GARCH) option pricing model, show and discuss sufficient conditions for non-negativity of the conditional variance, apply it to low-frequency and high-frequency financial data, and consider the option valuation, comparing the model performance...
Supply Chain Bilateral Coordination with Option Contracts under Inflation Scenarios
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nana Wan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available There exist obvious changes in price and demand during the inflationary period, both of which are regarded as the key factors leading to supply chain uncertainty. In this paper, we focus our discussion on price increase and demand contraction caused by inflation, integrate the effect of inflation and option contracts within the model framework, and analyze how to use option contracts to achieve supply chain coordination under inflation scenarios. We consider a one-period two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer and explore the effect of inflation on the optimal ordering and production decisions under three different types of contracts: wholesale price contracts, option contracts, and portfolio contracts. Moreover, we explore the impact of option contracts on the supply chain through using wholesale price contracts model as the benchmark. We find that the retailer prefers adopting portfolio contracts, but the supplier prefers providing option contracts under inflation scenarios. Ultimately, option contracts will be implemented owing to the supplier’s market dominant position. In addition, we discuss the supply chain bilateral coordination mechanism with option contracts from the perspectives of two members and derive that option contracts can coordinate the supply chain and achieve Pareto improvement under inflation scenarios.
48 CFR 552.216-70 - Economic Price Adjustment-FSS Multiple Award Schedule Contracts.
2010-10-01
... ___* percent of the original contract unit price. The Government reserves the right to raise this ceiling where... price increase. (e) The Government reserves the right to exercise one of the following options: (1... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Economic Price Adjustment...
48 CFR 552.216-71 - Economic Price Adjustment-Special Order Program Contracts.
2010-10-01
... updated index, the Contractor shall have waived its right to an upward price adjustment for the balance of... Contractors shall have waived its right to an upward price adjustment for that option period. Alternatively... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Economic Price Adjustment...
The COS Method : An Efficient Fourier Method for Pricing Financial Derivatives
Fang, F.
2010-01-01
When valuing and risk-managing financial derivatives, practitioners demand fast and accurate prices and sensitivities. Aside from the pricing of non-standard exotic financial derivatives, so-called plain vanilla European options form the basis for the calibration of financial models. As any pricing
2012-09-05
...) where both options involve the same security or instrument, but have different exercise prices and/or... a scenario where the price of the underlying stock (XYZ) is $60 or higher. If the market price of XYZ is $60, the May2011 60 call would have an intrinsic value of zero, because the right to buy at $60...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
VADUVA MARIA
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Regularities of competitive market determine rules for determining prices and their dynamics. Orientation prices to competition (competitive pricing is the strategy most frequently used in countries with market economies and especially for exports. Moreover, in an economy dominated by market competition it cannot be ignored without certain risks the prices resulting from competition between products bidders. Companies that use this type of strategy seek to maintain a level of prices linked to that charged by other competitors (or exporting producers generally no longer covering production costs or demand, relying on the assumption that the average market price is a reasonable basis of costs. But the way how practical guidance and reporting to the competition in every price strategy, will be determined by the company's market position, by the available power and enjoyed prestige, objectives and prospects of its market share etc. according to these elements, there may be several versions of pricing strategies oriented to competitors.
The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Freedenthal, C.
1993-01-01
Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas
2015-01-01
Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...... for patients and the health insurance system. We also estimated an increase in consumer welfare but the size effect depends on whether or not perceived quality differences between branded and other drugs are taken into account....
Treatment Options for Retinoblastoma
... factors affect prognosis (chance of recovery) and treatment options. The prognosis (chance of recovery ) and treatment options ... or in other places in the body. Treatment Option Overview Key Points There are different types of ...
NUKEM adjusts price definitions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1994-01-01
This article is the October-November 1994 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. During this period, there were five deals in the spot concentrates market, five deals in the medium and long-term market, one deal in the conversion market, and two deals in the enrichment market. Restricted prices strengthened while unrestricted prices held steady. Price re-definitions were also announced
Pradeep Bhardwaj
2001-01-01
An outstanding problem in marketing is why some firms in a competitive market delegate pricing decisions to agents and other firms do not. This paper analyzes the impact of competition on the delegation decision and, in turn, the impact of delegation on prices and incentives. The theory builds on the simplest framework of competition in two dimensions: prices and (sales agents') effort. Specifically, we are interested in answering the following questions: (1) Does competition affect the price...
Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures
Bertus, Mark J.
The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.
Soetevent, A.R.
2010-01-01
This paper extends Hotelling's model of price competition with quadratic transportation costs from a line to graphs. I propose an algorithm to calculate firm-level demand for any given graph, conditional on prices and firm locations. One feature of graph models of price competition is that spatial
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schilansky, J.L.
2005-06-01
This document presents information and statistical data on the prices of the crude oils, refining and petroleum products, at the date of the 28 June 2005: evolution of the barrel price, supply and demand, geo-policy, consumption, diesel and gasoline, prices at the service station. (A.L.B.)
Price control and macromarketing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kancir Rade
2003-01-01
Full Text Available Price control at macro level is part of integral macro marketing strategic control system, or more precisely, part of social marketing mix control. Price impact is direct, if it is regarded in the context of needs satisfaction, and indirect, within the context of resource allocation. These two patterns of price impact define control mechanism structuring. Price control in sense of its direct impact at process of need satisfaction should comprise qualitative and quantitative level of needs satisfaction at a given price level and its structure, informational dimension of price and different disputable forms of corporate pricing policies. Control of price allocation function is based at objectives of macro marketing system management in the area of resource allocation and the role of price as allocator in contemporary market economies. Control process is founded, on one hand, at theoretical models of correlation between price and demand in different market structures, and on the other hand, at complex limits that price as allocator has, and which make whole control process even more complex because of reduction of the degree of determinism in functioning of contemporary economic systems. Control of price allocation function must be continuous and dynamic process if it is to provide for convergence with environmental changes and if it is to provide for placing control systems at micro marketing levels in the function of socially valid objectives.
Engelhardt, Lucas M.
2015-01-01
In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…
Dutch house price fundamentals
Haffner, M.E.A.; de Vries, P.
2009-01-01
This paper discusses house price developments in the Netherlands, specifically focussing on the question whether current house prices in the Dutch owner-occupied market are likely to decrease. We analyse three aspects of the question based on a literature review: (1) whether there is a house price
A parabolic variational inequality arising from the valuation of strike reset options
Yang, Zhou; Yi, Fahuai; Dai, Min
A strike reset option is an option that allows its holder to reset the strike price to the prevailing underlying asset price at a moment chosen by the holder. The pricing model of the option can be formulated as a one-dimensional parabolic variational inequality, or equivalently, a free boundary problem, where the free boundary just corresponds to the optimal reset strategy adopted by the holder of the option. This paper is concerned with the theoretical analysis of the model. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are established. Furthermore, we study properties of the free boundary. The monotonicity and C smoothness of the free boundary are proven in some situations.
Analyzing the effects of past prices on reference price formation
van Oest, R.D.; Paap, R.
2004-01-01
textabstractWe propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to learn how many prices observed in the past are used for reference price formation. Furthermore, we learn to what extent households have sufficient price knowledge to form an internal reference price...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wise, T.
2005-01-01
This presentation examined fuel options in relation to oil sands production. Options include steam and hydrogen (H 2 ) for upgrading; natural gas by pipeline; bitumen; petroleum coke; and coal. Various cost drivers were also considered for each of the fuel options. It was noted that natural gas has high energy value but the capital cost is low, and that coke's energy value is very low but the capital cost is high. A chart forecasting energy prices was presented. The disposition of Western Canada's northern gas situation was presented. Issues concerning rail transportation for coal were considered. Environmental concerns were also examined. A chart of typical gas requirements for 75,000 B/D oil sands projects was presented. Issues concerning steam generation with gas and mining cogeneration with gas fuel and steam turbines were discussed, as well as cogeneration and H 2 with gas fuels and steam turbines. Various technology and fuel utility options were examined, along with details of equipment and processes. Boiler technologies were reviewed by type as well as fuel and steam quality and pressure. Charts of cogeneration with gas turbine and circulation fluid bed boilers were presented. Gasification processes were reviewed and a supply cost basis was examined. Cost drivers were ranked according to energy, operating considerations and capital investment. Results indicated that fuel costs were significant for gas and coal. Capital costs and capital recovery charge was most significant with coal and gasification technology. Without capital recovery, cash costs favour the use of bitumen and coke. Gasification would need lower capital and lower capital recovery to compete with direct burning. It was concluded that direct burning of bitumen can compete with natural gas. With price volatility anticipated, dual fuel capability for bitumen and gas has merit. Petroleum coke can be produced or retrieved from stockpiles. Utility supply costs of direct burning of coke is
Internet resource pricing models
Xu, Ke; He, Huan
2013-01-01
This brief guides the reader through three basic Internet resource pricing models using an Internet cost analysis. Addressing the evolution of service types, it presents several corresponding mechanisms which can ensure pricing implementation and resource allocation. The authors discuss utility optimization of network pricing methods in economics and underline two classes of pricing methods including system optimization and entities' strategic optimization. The brief closes with two examples of the newly proposed pricing strategy helping to solve the profit distribution problem brought by P2P
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .
THREE ESSAYS ON ASSET PRICING APPLYING REAL OPTIONS METHODOLOGY
KATIA MARIA CARLOS ROCHA
2006-01-01
A dissertação apresenta três ensaios econômicos onde a abordagem de opções reais faz-se mister seja na definição de políticas regulatórias, estratégias de investimentos ou apreçamento de risco soberano. O primeiro ensaio, toma como premissa a nova regulação orientada a custos da interconexão de redes de telecomunicações e propõe ajustes no cálculo da remuneração de capital da telefonia fixa local. O modelo proposto estabelece o mark-up sobre o custo médi...
Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing
Kerkhof, F.L.J.
2003-01-01
Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative
The Adjoint Method for the Inverse Problem of Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shou-Lei Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The estimation of implied volatility is a typical PDE inverse problem. In this paper, we propose the TV-L1 model for identifying the implied volatility. The optimal volatility function is found by minimizing the cost functional measuring the discrepancy. The gradient is computed via the adjoint method which provides us with an exact value of the gradient needed for the minimization procedure. We use the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm (L-BFGS to find the optimal and numerical examples shows the effectiveness of the presented method.
Hamiltonian and potentials in derivative pricing models: exact results and lattice simulations
Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani
2004-03-01
The pricing of options, warrants and other derivative securities is one of the great success of financial economics. These financial products can be modeled and simulated using quantum mechanical instruments based on a Hamiltonian formulation. We show here some applications of these methods for various potentials, which we have simulated via lattice Langevin and Monte Carlo algorithms, to the pricing of options. We focus on barrier or path dependent options, showing in some detail the computational strategies involved.
CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for the price of electricity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.
2005-09-01
The present study analyses the relationship between EU emissions trading and power prices, notably the implications of free allocation of emissions allowances for the price of electricity in countries of North-western Europe. To study this impact, it uses a variety of analytical approaches, including interviews with stakeholders, empirical and statistical analyses, theoretical explorations, and analyses by means of the COMPETES model. The study shows that a significant part of the costs of freely allocated allowances is passed through to power price and discusses its implications in terms of higher electricity prices for consumers and windfall profits for producers. It concludes that free allocation of emission allowances is a highly questionable policy option for a variety of reasons and suggests that auctioning might offer a better perspective
Pricing of path dependent derivatives with discretely monitored underlying assets
Choi, Hyomin
This dissertation presents two different approaches to path dependent option pricing with discrete sampling. Provided the underlying asset of a path dependent derivative contract follows an affine process, we use the forward characteristic method to evaluate its fair price. Our study shows that the valuation method is numerically accessible as long as the contract payoff is a linear combination of log return of its underlying asset price. We compute various examples of such contracts and give contract-tailored formulas that we use in these examples. In the second part, we consider variance options under stochastic volatility model. We analyze the difference between variance option prices with discrete and continuous sampling as a function of N, the number of observations made in the former. We find the series expansion of the difference with respect to 1/N and find its leading term. By adding this leading term to the value of continuously sampled variance option, we obtain a simple and well-understood approximation of discretely sample variance option price.
Efficient Pricing of CPPI using Markov Operators
Louis Paulot; Xavier Lacroze
2009-01-01
Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) is a strategy designed to give participation in a risky asset while protecting the invested capital. Some gap risk due to extreme events is often kept by the issuer of the product: a put option on the CPPI strategy is included in the product. In this paper we present a new method for the pricing of CPPIs and options on CPPIs, which is much faster and more accurate than the usual Monte-Carlo method. Provided the underlying follows a homogeneous pr...
7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...
Quantum finance Hamiltonian for coupon bond European and barrier options.
Baaquie, Belal E
2008-03-01
Coupon bond European and barrier options are financial derivatives that can be analyzed in the Hamiltonian formulation of quantum finance. Forward interest rates are modeled as a two-dimensional quantum field theory and its Hamiltonian and state space is defined. European and barrier options are realized as transition amplitudes of the time integrated Hamiltonian operator. The double barrier option for a financial instrument is "knocked out" (terminated with zero value) if the price of the underlying instrument exceeds or falls below preset limits; the barrier option is realized by imposing boundary conditions on the eigenfunctions of the forward interest rates' Hamiltonian. The price of the European coupon bond option and the zero coupon bond barrier option are calculated. It is shown that, is general, the constraint function for a coupon bond barrier option can -- to a good approximation -- be linearized. A calculation using an overcomplete set of eigenfunctions yields an approximate price for the coupon bond barrier option, which is given in the form of an integral of a factor that results from the barrier condition times another factor that arises from the payoff function.
Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets
Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh
1988-01-01
A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...
Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Panasenko Tetyana
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.
Value of an option to purchase electric power. The case of uncertain consumption
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhanot, Karan
2002-01-01
Large manufacturers and corporations often purchase options on power to protect themselves against unanticipated price increases. This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty in power consumption by a corporation on the value of an option to purchase electric power. Because there is no economically viable method to store power, these options are exercised to satisfy immediate consumption needs only. The amount exercised may differ from the maximum amount contracted, which in turn alters the payoffs that accrue to the option contract. We apply a Monte Carlo methodology to show that 'consumption uncertainty' may substantively lower the price of an option contract under different conditions
Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.
1982-01-01
In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander G. Kerl
2011-04-01
Full Text Available This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts’ reports. We compute a measure for target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown 12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain this accuracy. Target price accuracy is negatively related to analyst-specific optimism and stock-specific risk (measured by volatility and price-to-book ratio. However, target price accuracy is positively related to the level of detail of each report, company size and the reputation of the investment bank. The potential conflicts of interests between an analyst and a covered company do not bias forecast accuracy.
The price of fixed income market volatility
Mele, Antonio
2015-01-01
Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...
Some Divergence Properties of Asset Price Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wolfgang Stummer
2001-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract: We consider asset price processes Xt which are weak solutions of one-dimensional stochastic differential equations of the form (equation (2 Such price models can be interpreted as non-lognormally-distributed generalizations of the geometric Brownian motion. We study properties of the IÃŽÂ±-divergence between the law of the solution Xt and the corresponding drift-less measure (the special case ÃŽÂ±=1 is the relative entropy. This will be applied to some context in statistical information theory as well as to arbitrage theory and contingent claim valuation. For instance, the seminal option pricing theorems of Black-Scholes and Merton appear as a special case.
Pricing of electricity tariffs in competitive markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keppo, J.; Raesaenen, M.
1999-01-01
In many countries electricity supply business has been opened for competition. In this paper we analyze the problem of pricing of electricity tariffs in these open markets, when both the customers' electricity consumption and the market price are stochastic processes. Specifically, we focus on regular tariff contracts which do not have explicit amounts of consumption units defined in the contracts. Therefore the valuation process of these contracts differs from the valuation of electricity futures and options. The results show that the more there is uncertainty about the customer's consumption, the higher the fixed charge of the tariff contract should be. Finally, we analyze the indication of our results to the different methods for estimating the customer's consumption in the competitive markets. Since the consumption uncertainties enter into the tariff prices, the analysis indicates that the deterministic standard load curves do not provide efficient methods for evaluating the customers' consumption in competitive markets
The term structure of oil futures prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gabillon, J.
1991-01-01
In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)
"Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium
Aiyagari, S.R.; Gertler, M.
1998-01-01
We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock...
Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.
Lee, Bruce Y; McGlone, Sarah M
2010-01-01
New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following eleven components: (1) Conduct a target population analysis; (2) Map potential competitors and alternatives; (3) Construct a vaccine targe...
Koji Nakamura; Yumi Saita
2007-01-01
This paper examines the long-term relationship between macro economic fundamentals and the weighted-average land price indicators, which are supposed to be more appropriate than the official land price indicators when analyzing their impacts on the macro economy. In many cases, we find the cointegrating relationships between the weighted-average land price indicators and the discounted present value of land calculated based on the macro economic fundamentals indicators. We also find that the ...