Fourier and wavelet option pricing methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.C. Maree (Stef); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis); M.A.H. Dempster; J. Kanniainen (Juho); J. Keane (John); E. Vynckier (Erik)

2018-01-01

textabstractIn this overview chapter, we will discuss the use of exponentially converging option pricing techniques for option valuation. We will focus on the pricing of European options, and they are the basic instruments within a calibration procedure when fitting the parameters in asset dynamics.

Fractional Order Stochastic Differential Equation with Application in European Option Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Memory effect is an important phenomenon in financial systems, and a number of research works have been carried out to study the long memory in the financial markets. In recent years, fractional order ordinary differential equation is used as an effective instrument for describing the memory effect in complex systems. In this paper, we establish a fractional order stochastic differential equation (FSDE model to describe the effect of trend memory in financial pricing. We, then, derive a European option pricing formula based on the FSDE model and prove the existence of the trend memory (i.e., the mean value function in the option pricing formula when the Hurst index is between 0.5 and 1. In addition, we make a comparison analysis between our proposed model, the classic Black-Scholes model, and the stochastic model with fractional Brownian motion. Numerical results suggest that our model leads to more accurate and lower standard deviation in the empirical study.

The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.

Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

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H. Tamidy

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

Science.gov (United States)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

2014-12-01

The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

Pricing the (European) option to switch between two energy sources: An application to crude oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatfaoui, Hayette

2015-01-01

We consider a firm, which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business. The firm selects the energy source, which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon. Assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window, the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date T. In this light, the firm's energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk-free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price, and a short position in a European put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too. As a result, the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs. Modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the European put, we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis. Hence, our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source (i.e. minimizing energy costs). Moreover, we provide a price for the cost-reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one (i.e. hedging energy price risk). - Highlights: • We consider a firm, which chooses either crude oil or natural gas as an energy source. • The capability to switch offers the firm a hedge against energy commodity price risk. • A European put option prices the ability to switch from crude oil to natural gas. • The capability to switch between two energy sources reduces the firm's energy costs. • The discount illustrates the efficiency of the energy management policy (e.g. timing).

Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

KAUST Repository

Hä ppö lä , Juho

2016-01-01

We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

2013-01-01

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.

OpenAIRE

Hull, John C; White, Alan D

1987-01-01

One option-pricing problem which has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of European call on an asset which has a stochastic volatility. This paper examines this problem. The option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price. Numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price. It is found that the Black-Scholes price frequently overprices options and that the ...

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...

Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierangelo Ciurlia

2012-01-01

Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

Finite Volume Method for Pricing European Call Option with Regime-switching Volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Lista Tauryawati, Mey; Imron, Chairul; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a finite volume method for pricing European call option using Black-Scholes equation with regime-switching volatility. In the first step, we formulate the Black-Scholes equations with regime-switching volatility. we use a finite volume method based on fitted finite volume with spatial discretization and an implicit time stepping technique for the case. We show that the regime-switching scheme can revert to the non-switching Black Scholes equation, both in theoretical evidence and numerical simulations.

Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

KAUST Repository

Häppölä, Juho

2016-01-06

We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential equation that can be solved analytically in terms of the characteristic exponent of the Levy process. Then, a numerical inverse Fourier transform allows us to obtain the option price. We present a novel bound for the error and use this bound to set the parameters for the numerical method. We analyze the properties of the bound for a dissipative and pure-jump example. The bound presented is independent of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset prices. The error bound can be decomposed into a product of terms resulting from the dynamics and the option payoff, respectively. The analysis is supplemented by numerical examples that demonstrate results comparable to and superior to the existing literature.

The Pricing of Foreign Currency Futures Options

OpenAIRE

Chang Mo Ahn

1996-01-01

We derive semi-closed form solutions for the forward and futures exchange rates, European foreign currency options, currency forward options, and currency futures options when the domestic and foreign interest rate movements follow mean reverting diffusion processes. These solutions are consistent with the Black-Scholes option formula so that they can be easily applied. The impact of interest rate uncertainty on theoretical prices of currency futures options is too significant to be neglected.

Report on "American Option Pricing and Hedging Strategies"

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Jinshan

2007-01-01

This paper mainly discusses the American option's hedging strategies via binomialmodel and the basic idea of pricing and hedging American option. Although the essential scheme of hedging is almost the same as European option, small differences may arise when simulating the process for American option holder has more rights, spelling that the option can be exercised at anytime before its maturity. Our method is dynamic-hedging method.

Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie

2008-01-01

We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data

Option pricing with COS method on Graphics Processing Units

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Zhang (Bo); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

2009-01-01

htmlabstractIn this paper, acceleration on the GPU for option pricing by the COS method is demonstrated. In particular, both European and Bermudan options will be discussed in detail. For Bermudan options, we consider both the Black-Scholes model and Levy processes of infinite activity. Moreover,

Pricing and hedging of arithmetic Asian options via the Edgeworth series expansion approach

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Weiping Li

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for arithmetic Asian options by using the Edgeworth series expansion. Our pricing formula consists of a Black-Scholes-Merton type formula and a finite sum with the estimation of the remainder term. Moreover, we present explicitly a method to compute each term in our pricing formula. The hedging formulas (greek letters for the arithmetic Asian options are obtained as well. Our formulas for the long lasting question on pricing and hedging arithmetic Asian options are easy to implement with enough accuracy. Our numerical illustration shows that the arithmetic Asian options worths less than the European options under the standard Black-Scholes assumptions, verifies theoretically that the volatility of the arithmetic average is less than the one of the underlying assets, and also discovers an interesting phenomena that the arithmetic Asian option for large fixed strikes such as stocks has higher volatility (elasticity than the plain European option. However, the elasticity of the arithmetic Asian options for small fixed strikes as trading in currencies and commodity products is much less than the elasticity of the plain European option. These findings are consistent with the ones from the hedgings with respect to the time to expiration, the strike, the present underlying asset price, the interest rate and the volatility.

Quantum finance Hamiltonian for coupon bond European and barrier options.

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E

2008-03-01

Coupon bond European and barrier options are financial derivatives that can be analyzed in the Hamiltonian formulation of quantum finance. Forward interest rates are modeled as a two-dimensional quantum field theory and its Hamiltonian and state space is defined. European and barrier options are realized as transition amplitudes of the time integrated Hamiltonian operator. The double barrier option for a financial instrument is "knocked out" (terminated with zero value) if the price of the underlying instrument exceeds or falls below preset limits; the barrier option is realized by imposing boundary conditions on the eigenfunctions of the forward interest rates' Hamiltonian. The price of the European coupon bond option and the zero coupon bond barrier option are calculated. It is shown that, is general, the constraint function for a coupon bond barrier option can -- to a good approximation -- be linearized. A calculation using an overcomplete set of eigenfunctions yields an approximate price for the coupon bond barrier option, which is given in the form of an integral of a factor that results from the barrier condition times another factor that arises from the payoff function.

Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Hui; Liang, Jin-Rong; Zhang, Yun-Xiu

2012-08-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing by a fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. The price of the underlying stock follows a time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion. By a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument, the pricing formula for the European call option in discrete time setting is obtained.

Valuation of European Call Option via Inverse Fourier Transform

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Rubenis Oskars

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Very few models allow expressing European call option price in closed form. Out of them, the famous Black- Scholes approach sets strong constraints - innovations should be normally distributed and independent. Availability of a corresponding characteristic function of log returns of underlying asset in analytical form allows pricing European call option by application of inverse Fourier transform. Characteristic function corresponds to Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG probability density function. NIG distribution is obtained based on assumption that time series of log returns follows APARCH process. Thus, volatility clustering and leptokurtic nature of log returns are taken into account. The Fast Fourier transform based on trapezoidal quadrature is numerically unstable if a standard cumulative probability function is used. To solve the problem, a dampened cumulative probability is introduced. As a computation tool Matlab framework is chosen because it contains many effective vectorization tools that greatly enhance code readability and maintenance. The characteristic function of Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution is taken and exercised with the chosen set of parameters. Finally, the call price dependence on strike price is obtained and rendered in XY plot. Valuation of European call option with analytical form of characteristic function allows further developing models with higher accuracy, as well as developing models for some exotic options.

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

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Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

Option price and market instability

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2017-04-01

An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

Martingale approach in pricing and hedging European options under regime-switching

OpenAIRE

Grigori N. Milstein; Vladimir Spokoiny

2011-01-01

The paper focuses on the problem of pricing and hedging a European contingent claim for an incomplete market model, in which evolution of price processes for a saving account and stocks depends on an observable Markov chain. The pricing function is evaluated using the martingale approach. The equivalent martingale measure is introduced in a way that the Markov chain remains the historical one, and the pricing function satisfies the Cauchy problem for a system of linear parabolic equations. It...

Basket call option pricing for CCVG using sparse grids

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian

2016-01-06

The use of processes with jumps to overcome the shortcomings of the classical Black and Scholes when modelling stock prices has became very popular. One of the best-known models is the Common Clock Variance Gamma model (CCVG), introduced by Madan and Seneta in the 1990 [3]. We propose a method to price European basket call options modelled by the CCVG. The method could be extended to other model obtained by the subordination of a multidimensional Brownian motion and to more general options. To simplify the expositions we consider calls under the CCVG.

Basket call option pricing for CCVG using sparse grids

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Iania, Alessandro; Tempone, Raul

2016-01-01

The use of processes with jumps to overcome the shortcomings of the classical Black and Scholes when modelling stock prices has became very popular. One of the best-known models is the Common Clock Variance Gamma model (CCVG), introduced by Madan and Seneta in the 1990 [3]. We propose a method to price European basket call options modelled by the CCVG. The method could be extended to other model obtained by the subordination of a multidimensional Brownian motion and to more general options. To simplify the expositions we consider calls under the CCVG.

FTR-option formulation and pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar

2009-01-01

Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)

Continuous-Time Portfolio Selection and Option Pricing under Risk-Minimization Criterion in an Incomplete Market

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Xinfeng Ruan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We study option pricing with risk-minimization criterion in an incomplete market where the dynamics of the risky underlying asset are governed by a jump diffusion equation. We obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative in the minimal martingale measure and a partial integrodifferential equation (PIDE of European call option. In a special case, we get the exact solution for European call option by Fourier transformation methods. Finally, we employ the pricing kernel to calculate the optimal portfolio selection by martingale methods.

Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Min-Ku

2016-01-01

This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.

Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Keissling, Jonas; Tempone, Raul

2015-01-01

We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions

Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian

2015-01-07

We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a L? bound that separates the dynamical contribution from that arising from the type of the option n in question. The bound achieved does not rely on information of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset values. In addition, we demonstrate improved numerical performance for select examples of practical relevance when compared to established bounding methods.

Pricing American and Asian Options

OpenAIRE

Pat Muldowney

2015-01-01

An analytic method for pricing American call options is provided; followed by an empirical method for pricing Asian call options. The methodology is the pricing theory presented in "A Modern Theory of Random Variation", by Patrick Muldowney, 2012.

Analytic American Option Pricing and Applications

OpenAIRE

Sbuelz, A.

2003-01-01

I use a convenient value breakdown in order to obtain analytic solutions for finitematurity American option prices.Such a barrier-option-based breakdown yields an analytic lower bound for the American option price, which is as price-tight as the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) analytic value proxy for short and medium maturities and exhibits good convergence to the Merton (1973) perpetual option price for large maturities.

Feynman path integral application on deriving black-scholes diffusion equation for european option pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep

2016-01-01

Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods. (paper)

Recovering a time-homogeneous stock price process from perpetual option prices

OpenAIRE

Ekström, Erik; Hobson, David

2009-01-01

It is well known how to determine the price of perpetual American options if the underlying stock price is a time-homogeneous diffusion. In the present paper we consider the inverse problem, that is, given prices of perpetual American options for different strikes, we show how to construct a time-homogeneous stock price model which reproduces the given option prices.

Heterogeneity and option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

2000-01-01

An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

Analytic American Option Pricing and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sbuelz, A.

2003-01-01

I use a convenient value breakdown in order to obtain analytic solutions for finitematurity American option prices.Such a barrier-option-based breakdown yields an analytic lower bound for the American option price, which is as price-tight as the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) analytic value proxy

The Pricing of Vulnerable Options in a Fractional Brownian Motion Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Under the assumption of the stock price, interest rate, and default intensity obeying the stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion, the jump-diffusion model is established for the financial market in fractional Brownian motion setting. With the changes of measures, the traditional pricing method is simplified and the general pricing formula is obtained for the European vulnerable option with stochastic interest rate. At the same time, the explicit expression for it comes into being.

Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anderluh, J.H.M.

2007-01-01

The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.

Tight Error Bounds for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing for Exponential Levy Processes

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian

2016-01-06

Prices of European options whose underlying asset is driven by the L´evy process are solutions to partial integrodifferential Equations (PIDEs) that generalise the Black-Scholes equation by incorporating a non-local integral term to account for the discontinuities in the asset price. The Levy -Khintchine formula provides an explicit representation of the characteristic function of a L´evy process (cf, [6]): One can derive an exact expression for the Fourier transform of the solution of the relevant PIDE. The rapid rate of convergence of the trapezoid quadrature and the speedup provide efficient methods for evaluationg option prices, possibly for a range of parameter configurations simultaneously. A couple of works have been devoted to the error analysis and parameter selection for these transform-based methods. In [5] several payoff functions are considered for a rather general set of models, whose characteristic function is assumed to be known. [4] presents the framework and theoretical approach for the error analysis, and establishes polynomial convergence rates for approximations of the option prices. [1] presents FT-related methods with curved integration contour. The classical flat FT-methods have been, on the other hand, extended for option pricing problems beyond the European framework [3]. We present a methodology for studying and bounding the error committed when using FT methods to compute option prices. We also provide a systematic way of choosing the parameters of the numerical method, minimising the error bound and guaranteeing adherence to a pre-described error tolerance. We focus on exponential L´evy processes that may be of either diffusive or pure jump in type. Our contribution is to derive a tight error bound for a Fourier transform method when pricing options under risk-neutral Levy dynamics. We present a simplified bound that separates the contributions of the payoff and of the process in an easily processed and extensible product form that

How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Raouf Sheybani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

Pricing American Asian options with higher moments in the underlying distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Keng-Hsin; Wang, Kehluh; Hsu, Ming-Feng

2009-01-01

We develop a modified Edgeworth binomial model with higher moment consideration for pricing American Asian options. With lognormal underlying distribution for benchmark comparison, our algorithm is as precise as that of Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] if the number of the time steps increases. If the underlying distribution displays negative skewness and leptokurtosis as often observed for stock index returns, our estimates can work better than those in Chalasani et al. [P. Chalasani, S. Jha, F. Egriboyun, A. Varikooty, A refined binomial lattice for pricing American Asian options, Rev. Derivatives Res. 3 (1) (1999) 85-105] and are very similar to the benchmarks in Hull and White [J. Hull, A. White, Efficient procedures for valuing European and American path-dependent options, J. Derivatives 1 (Fall) (1993) 21-31]. The numerical analysis shows that our modified Edgeworth binomial model can value American Asian options with greater accuracy and speed given higher moments in their underlying distribution.

Option Pricing under Risk-Minimization Criterion in an Incomplete Market with the Finite Difference Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinfeng Ruan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We study option pricing with risk-minimization criterion in an incomplete market where the dynamics of the risky underlying asset is governed by a jump diffusion equation with stochastic volatility. We obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE of European option. The finite difference method is employed to compute the European option valuation of PIDE.

Exotic Options: a Chooser Option and its Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Financial instruments traded in the markets and investors’ situation in such markets are getting more and more complex. This leads to more complex derivative structures used for hedging that are harder to analyze and which risk is harder managed. Because of the complexity of these instruments, the basic characteristics of many exotic options may sometimes be not clearly understood. Most scientific studies have been focused on developing models for pricing various types of exotic options, but it is important to study their unique characteristics and to understand them correctly in order to use them in proper market situations. The paper examines main aspects of options, emphasizing the variety of exotic options and their place in financial markets and risk management process. As the exact valuation of exotic options is quite difficult, the article deals with the theoretical and practical aspects of pricing of chooser options that suggest a broad range of usage and application in different market conditions. The calculations made in the article showed that the price of the chooser is closely correlated with the choice time and low correlated with its strike price. So the first mentioned factor should be taken into consideration when making appropriate hedging and investing decisions.

Compound Option Pricing under Fuzzy Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiandong Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Considering the uncertainty of a financial market includes two aspects: risk and vagueness; in this paper, fuzzy sets theory is applied to model the imprecise input parameters (interest rate and volatility. We present the fuzzy price of compound option by fuzzing the interest and volatility in Geske’s compound option pricing formula. For each α, the α-level set of fuzzy prices is obtained according to the fuzzy arithmetics and the definition of fuzzy-valued function. We apply a defuzzification method based on crisp possibilistic mean values of the fuzzy interest rate and fuzzy volatility to obtain the crisp possibilistic mean value of compound option price. Finally, we present a numerical analysis to illustrate the compound option pricing under fuzzy environment.

American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping LI

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.

Option Pricing using Realized Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stentoft, Lars Peter

dynamics to be used for option pricing purposes in this framework, and we show that our model explains some of the mispricings found when using traditional option pricing models based on interdaily data. We then show explicitly that a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model with Normal...... Inverse Gaussian distributed innovations is the corresponding benchmark model when only daily data is used. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis using stock options for three large American companies, and we show that in all cases our model performs significantly better than the corresponding...... benchmark model estimated on return data alone. Hence the paper provides evidence on the value of using high frequency data for option pricing purposes....

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Efficient Option Pricing under Levy Processes, with CVA and FVA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jimmy eLaw

2015-07-01

Full Text Available We generalize the Piterbarg (2010 model to include 1 bilateral default risk as in Burgard and Kjaer (2012, and 2 jumps in the dynamics of the underlying asset using general classes of L'evy processes of exponential type. We develop an efficient explicit-implicit scheme for European options and barrier options taking CVA-FVA into account. We highlight the importance of this work in the context of trading, pricing and management a derivative portfolio given the trajectory of regulations.

Two-Dimensional Fourier Cosine Series Expansion Method for Pricing Financial Options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijter, M.J.; Oosterlee, C.W.

2012-01-01

The COS method for pricing European and Bermudan options with one underlying asset was developed in [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 31 (2008), pp. 826--848] and [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, Numer. Math., 114 (2009), pp. 27--62]. In this paper, we extend the method to higher

Essay on Option Pricing, Hedging and Calibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

da Silva Ribeiro, André Manuel

Quantitative finance is concerned about applying mathematics to financial markets.This thesis is a collection of essays that study different problems in this field: How efficient are option price approximations to calibrate a stochastic volatilitymodel? (Chapter 2) How different is the discretely...... of dynamics? (Chapter 5) How can we formulate a simple free-arbitrage model to price correlationswaps? (Chapter 6) A summary of the work presented in this thesis: Approximation Behooves Calibration In this paper we show that calibration based on an expansion approximation for option prices in the Heston...... stochastic volatility model gives stable, accurate, and fast results for S&P500-index option data over the period 2005 to 2009. Discretely Sampled Variance Options: A Stochastic Approximation Approach In this paper, we expand Drimus and Farkas (2012) framework to price variance options on discretely sampled...

A highly efficient pricing method for European-style options based on Shannon wavelets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

2017-01-01

textabstractIn the search for robust, accurate and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we present here the SWIFT method (Shannon Wavelets Inverse Fourier Technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

Scaling and long-range dependence in option pricing V: Multiscaling hedging and implied volatility smiles under the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao-Tian

2011-05-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing using the fractional Black-Scholes model with transaction costs. Through the ‘anchoring and adjustment’ argument in a discrete time setting, a European call option pricing formula is obtained. The minimal price of an option under transaction costs is obtained. In addition, the relation between scaling and implied volatility smiles is discussed.

Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘鸿雁; 张维

2003-01-01

The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk-averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.

Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

2014-01-01

Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

Numeraire-invariant option pricing and american, bermudan, trigger stream rollover

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jamshidian, F.

2004-01-01

Part I proposes a numeraire-invariant option pricing framework. It defines an option, its price process, and such notions as option indistinguishability and equivalence, domination, payoff process, trigger option, and semipositive option. It develops some of their basic properties, including price

Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. I. Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E

2007-01-01

European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.

On the Pricing of Options in Incomplete Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Melenberg, B.; Werker, B.J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper we reconsider the pricing of options in incomplete continuous time markets.We first discuss option pricing with idiosyncratic stochastic volatility.This leads, of course, to an averaged Black-Scholes price formula.Our proof of this result uses a new formalization of idiosyncraticy

Pricing perpetual American options under multiscale stochastic elasticity of variance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Ji-Hun

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We study the effects of the stochastic elasticity of variance on perpetual American option. • Our SEV model consists of a fast mean-reverting factor and a slow mean-revering factor. • A slow scale factor has a very significant impact on the option price. • We analyze option price structures through the market prices of elasticity risk. - Abstract: This paper studies pricing the perpetual American options under a constant elasticity of variance type of underlying asset price model where the constant elasticity is replaced by a fast mean-reverting Ornstein–Ulenbeck process and a slowly varying diffusion process. By using a multiscale asymptotic analysis, we find the impact of the stochastic elasticity of variance on the option prices and the optimal exercise prices with respect to model parameters. Our results enhance the existing option price structures in view of flexibility and applicability through the market prices of elasticity risk

Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo

2010-09-01

Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.

Bounds for Asian basket options

Science.gov (United States)

Deelstra, Griselda; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vanmaele, Michèle

2008-09-01

In this paper we propose pricing bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework. We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach for deriving upper and lower bounds for stop-loss premia of sums of non-independent random variables as in Kaas et al. [Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables, Insurance Math. Econom. 27 (2000) 151-168] or Dhaene et al. [The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory, Insurance Math. Econom. 31(1) (2002) 3-33]. We generalize the methods in Deelstra et al. [Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning, Insurance Math. Econom. 34 (2004) 55-57] and Vanmaele et al. [Bounds for the price of discrete sampled arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 185(1) (2006) 51-90]. Afterwards we show how to derive an analytical closed-form expression for a lower bound in the non-comonotonic case. Finally, we derive upper bounds for Asian basket options by applying techniques as in Thompson [Fast narrow bounds on the value of Asian options, Working Paper, University of Cambridge, 1999] and Lord [Partially exact and bounded approximations for arithmetic Asian options, J. Comput. Finance 10 (2) (2006) 1-52]. Numerical results are included and on the basis of our numerical tests, we explain which method we recommend depending on moneyness and time-to-maturity.

Evaluation of policy options to reform the EU Emissions Trading System. Effects on carbon price, emissions and the economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verdonk, M.; Brink, C.; Vollebergh, H.; Roelfsema, M.

2013-04-15

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key instrument of EU climate policy, providing a clear reduction pathway for CO2 emissions. The current carbon price (of about 3 euros per tonne of CO2, April 2013) is much lower than previously expected (which was around 30 euros) and is likely to remain low for a long time. This fuels doubts about whether the ETS will remain a key policy instrument in the long term. Such doubts also increase investment uncertainty, which is likely to have a negative impact on further investments in low-carbon technologies needed for a low-carbon economy in 2050. In November 2012, the European Commission put forward six options for a more structural reform of the EU ETS. The proposed options vary from reducing the cap and expanding the ETS to include other sectors, to strengthening the ETS by measures directly affecting allowance prices. The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (IenM) asked the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to assess the impact of these options. Four categories of options for reforming the ETS were evaluated: (1) reducing the supply of emission allowances; (2) expanding the ETS by including other sectors; (3) a minimum price for auctioned allowances; and (4) combining ETS with a carbon tax. Recently, the European Parliament voted against the European Commission's proposal to temporarily set aside emission allowances. In an earlier assessment of this proposal, PBL concluded that the impact of this backloading proposal on CO2 prices is likely to be limited, because the total amount of allowances up to 2020 would remain unchanged. All options analysed would reduce emissions and cause the emission price to increase. A minimum price on carbon, however, would provide the best opportunity to make the ETS more robust against unforeseen events, such as a further deterioration of the economy. Such a minimum price would result in more emission reductions if abatement proves to be cheaper

Monte Carlo methods for pricing financial options

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

traded by financial institutions, fund managers and corporate treasurers in the over the counter market. Options can often be ..... (under which discounted security price processes are martingales). This corresponds to ..... However, it requires explicit knowledge of option prices at all states of the Markov process and hence is ...

Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boes, M.J.

2006-01-01

Chapter 2 gives an overview of the literature that is directly related to the topics studied in this thesis. In Chapter 3 the impact of overnight periods on option prices is examined by estimating an option pricing model that takes overnight closures of exchanges explicitly into account. Chapter 4

Black-Scholes finite difference modeling in forecasting of call warrant prices in Bursa Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Mansor, Nur Jariah; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2014-07-01

Call warrant is a type of structured warrant in Bursa Malaysia. It gives the holder the right to buy the underlying share at a specified price within a limited period of time. The issuer of the structured warrants usually uses European style to exercise the call warrant on the maturity date. Warrant is very similar to an option. Usually, practitioners of the financial field use Black-Scholes model to value the option. The Black-Scholes equation is hard to solve analytically. Therefore the finite difference approach is applied to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. The central in time and central in space scheme is produced to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. It allows the warrant holder to forecast the value of the call warrant prices before the expiry date.

Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brink, Corjan; Vollebergh, Herman R.J.; Werf, Edwin van der

2016-01-01

This paper studies various options to support allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as adjusting the cap, an auction reserve price, and fixed and variable carbon taxes in addition to the EU ETS. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that explicitly allows for allowance banking and for a detailed cost-effectiveness analysis at the EU Member State level. We find that tightening the cap provides an ad hoc solution to the fundamental issue of the robustness of the effective carbon price, while introducing a price component to the ETS brings structural carbon price support in times of negative demand shocks for emission allowances. These price-based policies still benefit from the intertemporal flexibility through the banking provision in the EU ETS by re-allocating emissions over time with stronger emission reductions in early years and emission increases in later years. A higher emission price has a larger negative impact on the new Member States' economies than on other Member States. Furthermore, introducing a carbon tax in addition to the EU ETS decreases the price of allowances, resulting in welfare gains for net buyers of allowances while net sellers are worse off. - Highlights: • We analyse reform options for European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) with a CGE model. • Variable carbon tax and auction reserve price support carbon price at least cost. • Price-based reforms decrease early emissions but increase later emissions through banking. • New Member States' economies are affected more than others by higher CO_2 prices. • Lower allowance prices due to a carbon tax are unfavourable to net sellers of allowances.

VaR and CVaR Implied in Option Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Barone Adesi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available VaR (Value at Risk and CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk are implied by option prices. Their relationships to option prices are derived initially under the pricing measure. It does not require assumptions about the distribution of portfolio returns. The effects of changes of measure are modest at the short horizons typically used in applications. The computation of CVaR from option price is very convenient, because this measure is not elicitable, making direct comparisons of statistical inferences from market data problematic.

Electricity price and Southern California's water supply options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Larry [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Camilla Dunham Whitehead, Andre Fargeix, Golden Gate Economics, 1 Cycltron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

2004-11-01

This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California-new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.

A comprehensive method for exotic option pricing

OpenAIRE

Rossella Agliardi

2010-01-01

This work illustrates how several new pricing formulas for exotic options can be derived within a Levy framework by employing a unique pricing expression. Many existing pricing formulas of the traditional Gaussian model are obtained as a by-product.

Australian Asian Options

OpenAIRE

Manuel Moreno; Javier F. Navas

2003-01-01

We study European options on the ratio of the stock price to its average and viceversa. Some of these options are traded in the Australian Stock Exchange since 1992, thus we call them Australian Asian options. For geometric averages, we obtain closed-form expressions for option prices. For arithmetic means, we use different approximations that produce very similar results.

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

Option Pricing with Time-changed Lévy Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klingler, Sven; Kim, Young Shin; Rachev, Svetlozar T.

2013-01-01

In this article, we introduce two new six-parameter processes based on time-changing tempered stable distributions and develop an option pricing model based on these processes. This model provides a good fit to observed option prices. To demonstrate the advantages of the new processes, we conduct...

Risk Neutral Option Pricing With Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets

OpenAIRE

Nassim N. Taleb

2014-01-01

Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one, under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for centuries are both mor...

Numeraire Invariance and application to Option Pricing and Hedging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jamshidian, F.; Vanmaele, Michèle; Deelstra, Griselda; De Schepper, Ann; Dhaene, Jan; Reynaerts, Huguette; Schoutens, Wim; Van Goethem, Paul

2008-01-01

Numeraire invariance is a well-known technique in option pricing and hedging theory. It takes a convenient asset as the numeraire, as if it were the medium of exchange, and expresses all other asset and option prices in units of this numeraire. Since the price of the numeraire relative to itself is

Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

Science.gov (United States)

Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

2013-02-01

According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

Valuating Privacy with Option Pricing Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Berthold, Stefan; Böhme, Rainer

One of the key challenges in the information society is responsible handling of personal data. An often-cited reason why people fail to make rational decisions regarding their own informational privacy is the high uncertainty about future consequences of information disclosures today. This chapter builds an analogy to financial options and draws on principles of option pricing to account for this uncertainty in the valuation of privacy. For this purpose, the development of a data subject's personal attributes over time and the development of the attribute distribution in the population are modeled as two stochastic processes, which fit into the Binomial Option Pricing Model (BOPM). Possible applications of such valuation methods to guide decision support in future privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) are sketched.

Asian and European American cultural values and communication styles among Asian American and European American college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Yong S; Kim, Bryan S K

2008-01-01

The present study examined the relationships between adherence to Asian and European cultural values and communication styles among 210 Asian American and 136 European American college students. A principal components analysis revealed that, for both Asian Americans and European Americans, the contentious, dramatic, precise, and open styles loaded onto the first component suggesting low context communication, and interpersonal sensitivity and inferring meaning styles loaded onto the second component suggesting high context communication. Higher adherence to emotional self-control and lower adherence to European American values explained Asian Americans' higher use of the indirect communication, while higher emotional self-control explained why Asian Americans use a less open communication style than their European American counterparts. When differences between sex and race were controlled, adherence to humility was inversely related to contentious and dramatic communication styles but directly related to inferring meaning style, adherence to European American values was positively associated with precise communication and inferring meaning styles, and collectivism was positively related to interpersonal sensitivity style. 2008 APA

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

2015-01-01

–Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

OpenAIRE

Gonçalves, Franklin de O.

1997-01-01

This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observab...

The Economics of Style : Measuring the Price Effect of Neo-Traditional Architecture in Housing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitelaar, E.; Schilder, Frans

2017-01-01

Vintage effects have received considerable attention from economists in the context of house prices. Although strongly related, the impact of architectural building styles on prices has not been studied yet. Using a cross-sectional hedonic price analysis including building styles of recently

Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars

2015-01-01

We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...

Pricing Employee Stock Options (ESOs) with Random Lattice

Science.gov (United States)

Chendra, E.; Chin, L.; Sukmana, A.

2018-04-01

Employee Stock Options (ESOs) are stock options granted by companies to their employees. Unlike standard options that can be traded by typical institutional or individual investors, employees cannot sell or transfer their ESOs to other investors. The sale restrictions may induce the ESO’s holder to exercise them earlier. In much cited paper, Hull and White propose a binomial lattice in valuing ESOs which assumes that employees will exercise voluntarily their ESOs if the stock price reaches a horizontal psychological barrier. Due to nonlinearity errors, the numerical pricing results oscillate significantly so they may lead to large pricing errors. In this paper, we use the random lattice method to price the Hull-White ESOs model. This method can reduce the nonlinearity error by aligning a layer of nodes of the random lattice with a psychological barrier.

Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimin Heng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

Option Pricing and Momentum

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rodriguez, J.C.

2007-01-01

If managers are reluctant to fully adjust dividends to changes in earnings, stock returns and changes in the dividend yield will tend to be negatively correlated. When this is the case, stock returns will exhibit positive autocorrelation, or mo- mentum. This paper studies the pricing of options in

THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yanling GU; Juan LI

2006-01-01

The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.

Understanding transmission and distribution pricing options and proposals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shalaby, A.

1998-01-01

Issues regarding power transmission and distribution pricing were addressed in view of the importance of pricing to electricity restructuring and policy developments. Specific facts, policy directions, options and challenges peculiar to Ontario were highlighted, and recent Ontario legislation affecting the electricity industry was updated. The importance of transmission tariffs to open markets was reviewed with special reference to Canada because of their role in internal restructuring and in gaining fuller access to U.S. markets. The objectives of transmission and distribution pricing, the principles for network pricing, and the range of available options were considered with specific reference to Ontario. In comparing Ontario to other jurisdictions, it was acknowledged that the same problems that plagued other jurisdictions introducing deregulation, are also prominent in Ontario. As has been observed elsewhere, there has been no progress on transmission and distribution pricing options. There are significant implementation and transition challenges waiting for solutions. Issues beyond Ontario, such as trading with the United States, wider reach of the Independent Market Operator, agreements with other IMOs, etc., are still largely unresolved

2009 energy prices in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

In 2009, the natural gas price fell down in the European Union (EU). This drop was of about -5% (excluding taxes) as an average for companies, and of about -3% for households (including taxes). On the other hand, the electricity prices raised by 3% for companies and by 5% for households. In France, only the gas price for companies has dropped between 2008 and 2009. The electricity prices remain significantly lower than the EU average: -29% for companies and -30% for households. The gas price in France remains close to the European average but is significantly lower than the average price in the euro area. (J.S.)

Options with Extreme Strikes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lingjiong Zhu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Consiglio, Andrea; De Giovanni, Domenico

New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework that enc......New international accounting standards require insurers to reflect the value of embedded options and guarantees in their products. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. We propose a framework...... that encompasses the most known sources of incompleteness. We show that the surrender option, joined with a wide range of claims embedded in insurance contracts, can be priced through our tool, and deliver hedging portfolios to mitigate the risk arising from their positions. We provide extensive empirical analysis...... to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option....

Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven; Jacobs, Kris

2013-01-01

We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is nonmonotonic. A negative variance premium makes it U shaped. We present new semiparametric...... evidence to confirm this U-shaped relationship between the risk-neutral and physical probability densities. The new pricing kernel substantially improves our ability to reconcile the time-series properties of stock returns with the cross-section of option prices. It provides a unified explanation...... for the implied volatility puzzle, the overreaction of long-term options to changes in short-term variance, and the fat tails of the risk-neutral return distribution relative to the physical distribution....

Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

Science.gov (United States)

Balieiro Filho, Ruy Gabriel; Rosenfeld, Rogerio

2004-12-01

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments.

Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

This paper considers derivatives with payoffs that depend on a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. A traffic light option pricing formula is derived under lognormality assumptions on the underlying processes. The traffic light option is aimed at the Danish life and pension sector to help...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....

Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Vintila

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

An approximate moving boundary method for American option pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

2015-01-01

We present a method to solve the free-boundary problem that arises in the pricing of classical American options. Such free-boundary problems arise when one attempts to solve optimal-stopping problems set in continuous time. American option pricing is one of the most popular optimal-stopping problems

Bayesian Option Pricing Framework with Stochastic Volatility for FX Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Wang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The application of stochastic volatility (SV models in the option pricing literature usually assumes that the market has sufficient option data to calibrate the model’s risk-neutral parameters. When option data are insufficient or unavailable, market practitioners must estimate the model from the historical returns of the underlying asset and then transform the resulting model into its risk-neutral equivalent. However, the likelihood function of an SV model can only be expressed in a high-dimensional integration, which makes the estimation a highly challenging task. The Bayesian approach has been the classical way to estimate SV models under the data-generating (physical probability measure, but the transformation from the estimated physical dynamic into its risk-neutral counterpart has not been addressed. Inspired by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH option pricing approach by Duan in 1995, we propose an SV model that enables us to simultaneously and conveniently perform Bayesian inference and transformation into risk-neutral dynamics. Our model relaxes the normality assumption on innovations of both return and volatility processes, and our empirical study shows that the estimated option prices generate realistic implied volatility smile shapes. In addition, the volatility premium is almost flat across strike prices, so adding a few option data to the historical time series of the underlying asset can greatly improve the estimation of option prices.

The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices

KAUST Repository

Bayer, Christian; Siebenmorgen, Markus; Tempone, Raul

2017-01-01

We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non

Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

2005-01-01

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility “smile” can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.

Transfer Pricing in the European Union

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe MATEI

2011-04-01

Full Text Available The transfer pricing mechanism is a tool commonly used to transfer the tax base from countries with high taxation in countries with low taxation. In the European Union, this financial operations generate significant tax revenue losses. In an attempt to limit the handling of corporate tax systems, many public authorities have introduced regulations on transfer pricing, but the effectiveness of these rules has proved limited, and they contributed to the increasing complexity of tax laws and to the appearance of additional costs for companies. A solution to the solving of the transfer pricing problem in the European Union is represented by the introduction of the common consolidated corporate tax base.

Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu Lupu

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.

Numerical Methods for Pricing American Options with Time-Fractional PDE Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Zhou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we develop a Laplace transform method and a finite difference method for solving American option pricing problem when the change of the option price with time is considered as a fractal transmission system. In this scenario, the option price is governed by a time-fractional partial differential equation (PDE with free boundary. The Laplace transform method is applied to the time-fractional PDE. It then leads to a nonlinear equation for the free boundary (i.e., optimal early exercise boundary function in Laplace space. After numerically finding the solution of the nonlinear equation, the Laplace inversion is used to transform the approximate early exercise boundary into the time space. Finally the approximate price of the American option is obtained. A boundary-searching finite difference method is also proposed to solve the free-boundary time-fractional PDEs for pricing the American options. Numerical examples are carried out to compare the Laplace approach with the finite difference method and it is confirmed that the former approach is much faster than the latter one.

Option Price Estimations and Speculative Trading In Knowledge Society

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ovidiu TURCOANE

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Derivatives market has known an enormous and continuous development from the late 1970s, thanks to the most celebrated Black-Scholes-Merton formula. The impact on global economy is also tremendous, but due to the high leverage of speculative option trading there is a perpetual danger of economic collapse. This paper gives a short description of knowledge society and proposes methods for option price estimation based on implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. ‘Free-lunch’ is hardly achievable if one predicts the option price using the knowledgeable information from the market and there is almost impossible to speculate, rather than to hedge, when trading option.

Higher-Order Finite Element Solutions of Option Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raahauge, Peter

2004-01-01

Kinks and jumps in the payoff function of option contracts prevent an effectiveimplementation of higher-order numerical approximation methods. Moreover, thederivatives (the greeks) are not easily determined around such singularities, even withstandard lower-order methods. This paper suggests...... for prices as well as for first and second order derivatives(delta and gamma). Unlike similar studies, numerical approximation errors aremeasured both as weighted averages and in the supnorm over a state space includingtime-to-maturities down to a split second.KEYWORDS: Numerical option pricing, Transformed...

Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wai-Ki Ching

2007-10-01

Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.

Option price calibration from Renyi entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brody, Dorje C.; Buckley, Ian R.C.; Constantinou, Irene C.

2007-01-01

The calibration of the risk-neutral density function for the future asset price, based on the maximisation of the entropy measure of Renyi, is proposed. Whilst the conventional approach based on the use of logarithmic entropy measure fails to produce the observed power-law distribution when calibrated against option prices, the approach outlined here is shown to produce the desired form of the distribution. Procedures for the maximisation of the Renyi entropy under constraints are outlined in detail, and a number of interesting properties of the resulting power-law distributions are also derived. The result is applied to efficiently evaluate prices of path-independent derivatives

Price dynamics in European petroleum markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wlazlowski, Szymon; Giulietti, Monica; Binner, Jane; Milas, Costas

2009-01-01

This paper analyses horizontal and vertical price dynamics in the EU petroleum markets. The results indicate that the cross-country price differentials have significant impact on the local price adjustments. We investigate the cross-national price spill-overs and find that the extent of the welfare transfer due to asymmetric price transmission, when analysed in a cross-country setting, is less pronounced than claimed in previous contributions in this area. We also find empirical evidence, although indirect, for the politically charged concept of 'fuel tourism', using a pan-European cross-product time series dataset. (author)

Numerically pricing American options under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wenting; Yan, Bowen; Lian, Guanghua; Zhang, Ying

2016-06-01

In this paper, we introduce a robust numerical method, based on the upwind scheme, for the pricing of American puts under the generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion (GMFBM) model. By using portfolio analysis and applying the Wick-Itô formula, a partial differential equation (PDE) governing the prices of vanilla options under the GMFBM is successfully derived for the first time. Based on this, we formulate the pricing of American puts under the current model as a linear complementarity problem (LCP). Unlike the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) model or the generalized B-S model discussed in Cen and Le (2011), the newly obtained LCP under the GMFBM model is difficult to be solved accurately because of the numerical instability which results from the degeneration of the governing PDE as time approaches zero. To overcome this difficulty, a numerical approach based on the upwind scheme is adopted. It is shown that the coefficient matrix of the current method is an M-matrix, which ensures its stability in the maximum-norm sense. Remarkably, we have managed to provide a sharp theoretic error estimate for the current method, which is further verified numerically. The results of various numerical experiments also suggest that this new approach is quite accurate, and can be easily extended to price other types of financial derivatives with an American-style exercise feature under the GMFBM model.

Closed-form pricing formula for exchange option with credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Geonwoo; Koo, Eunho

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study the valuation of Exchange option with credit risk. Since the over-the-counter (OTC) markets have grown rapidly in size, the counterparty default risk is very important and should be considered for the valuation of options. For modeling of credit risk, we use the structural model of Klein [13]. We derive the closed-form pricing formula for the price of the Exchange option with credit risk via the Mellin transform and provide the experiment results to illustrate the important properties of option with numerical graphs.

Analysis of Medicine Prices in New Zealand and 16 European Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Kilpatrick, Kate; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

2015-06-01

To compare prices of medicines, both originators and generics, in New Zealand and 16 European countries. Ex-factory price data as of December 2012 from New Zealand and 16 European countries were compared for a basket of 14 medicines, most of which were at least partially funded by the state in the 17 countries. Five medicines had, at least in some countries, generic versions on the market whose prices were also analyzed. Medicine price data for the 16 European countries were provided by the Pharma Price Information service. New Zealand medicine prices were retrieved from the New Zealand Pharmaceutical Schedule. Unit prices converted into euro were compared at the ex-factory price level. For the 14 medicines surveyed, considerable price differences at the ex-factory price level were identified. Within the European countries, prices in Greece, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and Spain ranked at the lower end, whereas prices in Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden were at the upper end. The results for New Zealand compared with Europe were variable. New Zealand prices were found in the lowest quartile for five medicines and in the highest quartile for seven other products. Price differences between the originator products and generic versions ranged from 0% to 90% depending on the medicine and the country. Medicine prices varied considerably between European countries and New Zealand as well as among the European countries. These differences are likely to result from national pricing and reimbursement policies. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

Science.gov (United States)

E-Khatib, Youssef

2012-09-01

One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

Bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model

OpenAIRE

Ekström, Erik

2006-01-01

We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black-Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.

DIREM's prices. Prices and margins of petroleum products in France and in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-08-01

This report presents in a series of graphs and tables the prices and margins of petroleum products in France and in the European Union (EU) according to the data compiled by the Direction of energy and mineral resources (DIREM) of the French general direction of energy and raw materials (DGEMP, Ministry of economy, finances and industry): evolution of crude prices, evolution of Rotterdam's quotation of petroleum products, raw margin of brent refining, French fuel prices (automotive and domestic fuels, evolution, comparison with EU and Rotterdam's prices), comparison with prices in other European countries, evolution of average retail prices in France. (J.S.)

Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.

2004-01-01

This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of

Calculation Aspects of the European Rebalanced Basket Option using Monte Carlo Methods: Valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CJ van der Merwe

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Extra premiums can be charged to a client to guarantee a minimum payout of a contract on a portfolio that gets rebalanced on a regular basis back to fixed proportions. The valuation of this premium can be changed to that of the pricing of a European put option with underlying rebalanced portfolio. This article finds the most efficient estimators for the value of this path-dependant multi-asset put option using different Monte Carlo methods. With the help of a refined method, computing time of the value decreased significantly. Furthermore, Variance Reduction Techniques and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods delivered more accurate and faster converging estimates as well.

Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...

Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Henrique Barbedo

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.

Leveraged exchange-traded funds price dynamics and options valuation

CERN Document Server

Leung, Tim

2016-01-01

This book provides an analysis, under both discrete-time and continuous-time frameworks, on the price dynamics of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs), with emphasis on the roles of leverage ratio, realized volatility, investment horizon, and tracking errors. This study provides new insights on the risks associated with LETFs. It also leads to the discussion of new risk management concepts, such as admissible leverage ratios and admissible risk horizon, as well as the mathematical and empirical analyses of several trading strategies, including static portfolios, pairs trading, and stop-loss strategies involving ETFs and LETFs. The final part of the book addresses the pricing of options written on LETFs. Since different LETFs are designed to track the same reference index, these funds and their associated options share very similar sources of randomness. The authors provide a no-arbitrage pricing approach that consistently value options on LETFs with different leverage ratios with stochastic volatility and ...

Traffic Light Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

Traffic Light Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

2007-01-01

This paper introduces, prices, and analyzes traffic light options. The traffic light option is an innovative structured OTC derivative developed independently by several London-based investment banks to suit the needs of Danish life and pension (L&P) companies, which must comply with the traffic...... 2006, and supervisory authorities in many other European countries have implemented similar regulation. Traffic light options are therefore likely to attract the attention of a wider audience of pension fund managers in the future. Focusing on the valuation of the traffic light option we set up a Black...... light scenarios. These stress scenarios entail drops in interest rates as well as in stock prices, and traffic light options are thus designed to pay off and preserve sufficient capital when interest rates and stock prices fall simultaneously. Sweden's FSA implemented a traffic light system in January...

A Proposed Solution for the Chicken-Egg Dilemma in Pricing Currency Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ariful Hoque

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The implied volatility (IV estimation process suffers from an obvious chicken-egg dilemma: obtaining an unbiased IV requires the options to be priced correctly and calculating an accurate option price (OP requires an unbiased IV. We address this critical issue in two steps. First, the Granger causality test is employed, whichconfirms the chicken-and-egg problem in the IV computing process. Secondly, the concept of “moneyness volatility (MV” is introduced as an alternative to IV. MV is modelled based on an option’s moneyness (OM during the life of the option’s contract. The F-test, Granger-Newbold test and Diebold-Mariano test results consistently show that MV outperforms IV in estimating the exchange rate volatility for pricing options. Further, these series of tests across six major currency options substantiate the validity as well as the reliability of the results. We posit that MV offers a unique solution for pricing currency options accurately.

Pricing summer day options by good-deal bounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi; Ohashi, Kazuhiko

2009-01-01

Despite the worldwide popularity of CDD- and HDD-type weather derivatives based on temperature, a different class of weather derivatives, so-called summer day options, is more popular in Japan; the payoffs are determined by the number of summer days (i.e., the days whose average temperature is above 25 C) during the contract period. In this paper, we price such summer day options by the good-deal bounds of Cochrane and Saa-Requejo [Cochrane, J.H., and J. Saa-Requejo, 2000, Beyond Arbitrage: Good-Deal Asset Price Bounds in Incomplete Markets, Journal of Political Economy 108, 79-119.], using temperature data for Tokyo. (author)

NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK MARKET OPTION PRICING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey A. Sannikov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The use of neural networks for non-linear models helps to understand where linear model drawbacks, coused by their specification, reveal themselves. This paper attempts to find this out. The objective of research is to determine the meaning of “option prices calculation using neural networks”. Materials and Methods: We use two kinds of variables: endogenous (variables included in the model of neural network and variables affecting on the model (permanent disturbance. Results: All data are divided into 3 sets: learning, affirming and testing. All selected variables are normalised from 0 to 1. Extreme values of income were shortcut. Discussion and Conclusions: Using the 33-14-1 neural network with direct links we obtained two sets of forecasts. Optimal criteria of strategies in stock markets’ option pricing were developed.

Efficient Pricing of Early : Exercise and Exotic Options Based on Fourier Cosine Expansions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, B.

2012-01-01

In the financial world, two tasks are of prime importance: model calibration and portfolio hedging. For both tasks, efficient option pricing is necessary, particularly for the calibration where many options with different strike prices and different maturities need to be priced at the same time.

Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

2015-01-01

to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

Prices vs. quantities. Incentives for renewable power generation. Numerical analysis for the European power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagl, Stephan

2013-02-15

In recent years, many countries have implemented policies to incentivize renewable power generation. This paper outlines the effects of weather uncertainty on investment and operation decisions of electricity producers under a feed-in tariff and renewable quota obligation. Furthermore, this paper tries to quantify the sectoral welfare and investments risks under the different policies. For this purpose, a spatial stochastic equilibrium model is introduced for the European electricity market. The numerical analysis suggests that including the electricity market price in renewable policies (wholesale price + x) reduces the loss of sectoral welfare due to a renewable policy by 11-20 %. Moreover, investors face an only slightly higher risk than under fixed price compensations. However, electricity producers face a substantially larger investment risk when introducing a renewable quota obligation without the option of banking and borrowing of green certificates. Given the scenario results, an integration of the hourly market price in renewable support mechanisms is mandatory to keep the financial burden to electricity consumers at a minimum. Additionally, following the discussion of a European renewable quota after 2020, the analysis indicates the importance of an appropriate banking and borrowing mechanism in light of stochastic wind and solar generation.

A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

OpenAIRE

Bruno Bosco; Lucia Parisio; Matteo Pelagatti; Fabio Baldi

2007-01-01

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electrici...

Using Partial Differential Equations for Pricing of Goods and Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Traykov Metodi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This article is based on the methodology of comparative analysis, using an innovative approach for pricing of various goods and services. Benchmarking is the continuous search to find and adapt better pricing methods that leading to increased profits. We will consider the numerical solution of partial differential equations, based on Black-Scholes model for pricing of goods and services within European option. Also, we will present formulation and numerical behavior of explicit and implicit methods that can be use in pricing for company assets within European option.

GARCH Option Valuation: Theory and Evidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Ornthanalai, Chayawat

We survey the theory and empirical evidence on GARCH option valuation models. Our treatment includes the range of functional forms available for the volatility dynamic, multifactor models, nonnormal shock distributions as well as style of pricing kernels typically used. Various strategies...... for empirical implementation are laid out and we also discuss the links between GARCH and stochastic volatility models. In the appendix we provide Matlab computer code for option pricing via Monte Carlo simulation for nonaffine models as well as Fourier inversion for affine models....

First Passage Time for Tempered Stable Process and Its Application to Perpetual American Option and Barrier Option Pricing

OpenAIRE

Kim, Young Shin

2018-01-01

In this paper, we will discuss an approximation of the characteristic function of the first passage time for a Levy process using the martingale approach. The characteristic function of the first passage time of the tempered stable process is provided explicitly or by an indirect numerical method. This will be applied to the perpetual American option pricing and the barrier option pricing. Numerical illustrations are provided for the calibrated parameters using the market call and put prices.

How Can Pricing and Reimbursement Policies Improve Affordable Access to Medicines? Lessons Learned from European Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Paris, Valérie; Ferrario, Alessandra; Wirtz, Veronika J; de Joncheere, Kees; Schneider, Peter; Pedersen, Hanne Bak; Dedet, Guillaume; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

2017-06-01

This article discusses pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in European countries with regard to their ability to ensure affordable access to medicines. A frequently applied pricing policy is external price referencing. While it provides some benchmark for policy-makers and has been shown to be able to generate savings, it may also contribute to delay in product launch in countries where medicine prices are low. Value-based pricing has been proposed as a policy that promotes access while rewarding useful innovation; however, implementing it has proven quite challenging. For high-priced medicines, managed-entry agreements are increasingly used. These agreements allow policy-makers to manage uncertainty and obtain lower prices. They can also facilitate earlier market access in case of limited evidence about added therapeutic value of the medicine. However, these agreements raise transparency concerns due to the confidentiality clause. Tendering as used in the hospital and offpatent outpatient sectors has been proven to reduce medicine prices but it requires a robust framework and appropriate design with clear strategic goals in order to prevent shortages. These pricing and reimbursement policies are supplemented by the widespread use of Health Technology Assessment to inform decision-making, and by strategies to improve the uptake of generics, and also biosimilars. While European countries have been implementing a set of policy options, there is a lack of thorough impact assessments of several pricing and reimbursement policies on affordable access. Increased cooperation between authorities, experience sharing and improving transparency on price information, including the disclosure of confidential discounts, are opportunities to address current challenges.

Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potgieter, Petrus H.

2009-01-01

In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].

American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stentoft, Lars Peter

In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...

Capturing option anomalies with a variance-dependent pricing kernel

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Christoffersen, P.; Heston, S.; Jacobs, K.

2013-01-01

We develop a GARCH option model with a variance premium by combining the Heston-Nandi (2000) dynamic with a new pricing kernel that nests Rubinstein (1976) and Brennan (1979). While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is

Adaptive wavelet method for pricing two-asset Asian options with floating strike

Science.gov (United States)

Černá, Dana

2017-12-01

Asian options are path-dependent option contracts which payoff depends on the average value of the asset price over some period of time. We focus on pricing of Asian options on two assets. The model for pricing these options is represented by a parabolic equation with time variable and three state variables, but using substitution it can be reduced to the equation with only two state variables. For time discretization we use the θ-scheme. We propose a wavelet basis that is adapted to boundary conditions and use an adaptive scheme with this basis for discretization on the given time level. The main advantage of this scheme is small number of degrees of freedom. We present numerical experiments for the Asian put option with floating strike and compare the results for the proposed adaptive method and the Galerkin method.

Analysis of Nova 1 strategy formed by barrier options and its application in hedging against a price drop in oil market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Šoltés

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates hedging analysis against an underlying price drop by using the Nova 1 strategy formed by standard vanilla and barrier options. There are used European down and knock-in put options together with barrier call options. Derived income functions from the secured positions in analytical expressions are presented. Based on the theoretical results, the hedged portfolio is applied to SPDR SandP Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF. The proposed hedging variants are analysed and compared with the recommendation of the best possibilities for investors.

A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing

OpenAIRE

S. G. Kou

2002-01-01

Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black--Scholes option-pricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called "volatility smile" in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between ...

Using Priced Options to Solve the Exposure Problem in Sequential Auctions

Science.gov (United States)

Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han

This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.

Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Hybrid Products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

2009-01-01

companies stay solvent in the traffic light stress test system introduced by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authorities in 2001. Similar systems are now being implemented in several other European countries. A pricing approach for general payoffs is presented and illustrated with simulation via...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....

Oscillatory Reduction in Option Pricing Formula Using Shifted Poisson and Linear Approximation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachmawati Ro’fah Nur

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Option is one of derivative instruments that can help investors improve their expected return and minimize the risks. However, the Black-Scholes formula is generally used in determining the price of the option does not involve skewness factor and it is difficult to apply in computing process because it produces oscillation for the skewness values close to zero. In this paper, we construct option pricing formula that involve skewness by modified Black-Scholes formula using Shifted Poisson model and transformed it into the form of a Linear Approximation in the complete market to reduce the oscillation. The results are Linear Approximation formula can predict the price of an option with very accurate and successfully reduce the oscillations in the calculation processes.

Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Non-Monotonic Pricing Kernels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Babaoglu, Kadir; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven L.

We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A U-shaped pricing kernel is economically most im...

Introduction to the mathematics of finance from risk management to options pricing

CERN Document Server

Roman, Steven

2004-01-01

The Mathematics of Finance has become a hot topic in applied mathematics ever since the discovery of the Black-Scholes option pricing formulas in 1973. Unfortunately, there are very few undergraduate textbooks in this area. This book is specifically written for upper division undergraduate or beginning graduate students in mathematics, finance or economics. With the exception of an optional chapter on the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the book concentrates on discrete derivative pricing models, culminating in a careful and complete derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formulas as a limiting case of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein discrete model. The final chapter is devoted to American options. The mathematics is not watered down but is appropriate for the intended audience. No measure theory is used and only a small amount of linear algebra is required. All necessary probability theory is developed in several chapters throughout the book, on a "need-to-know" basis. No background in finance is required, sinc...

Financial Engineering With Options and Its Implementation for Issuing of New Financial Innovations

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Martina Bobriková

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to focus on innovative structured products − investment certificates. The paper shows the creation techniques of a new discount basket certificate using two-asset correlation options, which play the central role in financial engineering. The possibilities of investment using given certificates are investigated for potential investors. Methodology: Methodology of the paper is based on European style two-asset correlation options in analytical expression whose payoff is based on two underlying assets with two strike prices. Due to the lack of real-traded two asset correlation option data, own calculations of option premiums are processed in statistical program R. Also, the pricing of the new discount basket certificate is examines. Approach: Theoretical value of the new discount basket certificate with different levels of its parameters on the stocks Facebook and Google is obtained and it is performed the analysis of the profitability for to the investor at the maturity date. Also, there is showed which parameters the investor should pay attention when deciding to invest into the given investment certificate. Findings: Specific characteristics of each proposed certificate are pointed out and compared to each other with conclusion that every certificate can be the most profitable in specific price development of the underlying assets, but not in every price development. Ideas on how this certificate can be part of a personal investment portfolio are also presented.

Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Genest, C.; Werker, B.J.M.

2003-01-01

This paper examines the behavior of multivariate option prices in the presence of association between the underlying assets.Parametric families of copulas offering various alternatives to the normal dependence structure are used to model this association, which is explicitly assumed to vary over

Risk preference, option pricing and portfolio hedging with proportional transaction costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiao-Tian; Li, Zhe; Zhuang, Le

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Scaling is a key factor in option pricing. • The model is theoretically analyzed and the results are new. • Some numerical examples are performed. • The implied-volatility-frown is affected by the risk preference and scaling. - Abstract: This paper is concerned in the option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case with the proportional transaction costs. Through the Monte Carlo simulations it has been shown that the fractal scaling and risk preference of traders have an important influence on the hedging performances in both option pricing and portfolio hedging in a discrete time case. In addition, the relation between preference of traders and implied volatility frown is discussed. We conclude that the risk preferences of traders play an important role in determining the shape of the implied-volatility-frown and the different options having the different hedging frequencies is another reason for the implied volatility frown.

Price discovery in European natural gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, Emma; Swieringa, John

2013-01-01

We provide the first high-frequency investigation of price discovery within the physical and financial layers of Europe's natural gas markets. Testing not only looks at short-term return dynamics, but also considers each security's contribution to price equilibrium in the longer-term. Results show that UK natural gas futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange display greater price discovery than physical trading at various hubs throughout Europe. - Highlights: • We use intraday data to gauge price discovery in European natural gas markets. • We explore short and long-term dynamics in physical and financial market layers. • Results show ICE's UK natural gas futures are the main venue for price discovery

Direm prices, prices and margins of petroleum products in France and in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This document presents in a series of graphics and tables, the evolution of petroleum products prices and margins in France and in the European Union: crude oil prices, Rotterdam's petroleum products quotation, raw brent refining margin, automotive and domestic fuel prices. (J.S.)

A European map regarding the strictness of the transfer pricing regulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Ignat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In the context in which transfer pricing may represent a mechanism through which multinationals have the possibility to move funds internationally, in order to prevent the base erosion and profit shifting between multinationals, countries over the world have adopted various transfer pricing regulations. Furthermore, some of the countries adopted stricter regulations than others. The objective of our research was to identify the level of strictness for the transfer pricing regulations from the European countries. To achieve this objective, we analyzed the transfer pricing regulations of all European countries and we built a transfer pricing strictness index, based on which we defined 4 categories of countries (where category 1 includes the countries with the least strict transfer pricing regulations and category 4 countries with the strictest regulations. After that, we illustrated how these categories are distributed on the European map. In order to collect the information, we used the transfer pricing guides issued by the Big Four companies for the year 2015. The study`s results show that the strictness of the transfer pricing regulations decreases from the west of Europe to east. Moreover, most of the countries were included in category 2, respectively category 3, meaning that the transfer pricing regulations from the European continent are not so flexible, but in the same time are not so strict.

Stochastic arbitrage return and its implications for option pricing

OpenAIRE

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

2004-01-01

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random proces...

Price effects of changing quantities supplied at the integrated european fish market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Max; Smit, Jos; Guillen, Jordi

2012-01-01

to be −1.1. This implies that price flexibilities previously estimated for single European countries underestimate price changes at the European level caused by quantity changes. Results indicate that changing quantities can increase revenues from individual species with large own-price flexibilities...

Pricing unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, M.; Novkaniza, F.; Novita, M.

2017-07-01

Unit-linked insurance is an investment-linked insurance, that is, the given benefit is the premium investment out-come. Recently, the most widely marketed insurance in the industry is unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit. With guaranteed benefit applied, the insurance benefits form is similar to the payoff form of European call option. Thereby, pricing European call option is involved in pricing unit-linked insurance with guaranteed benefit. The dynamics of investment outcome is assumed to follow stochastic interest rate. Hence, change of measure methods is used in pricing unit-linked insurance. The discount factor with stochastic interest rate needs to be modified as well to be zero coupon bond price. Eventually, the insurance premium is calculated by equivalence principle with guaranteed benefit and insurance period explicitly given.

A Call-Put Duality for Perpetual American Options

OpenAIRE

Alfonsi, Aurélien; Jourdain, Benjamin

2006-01-01

International audience; It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper investigates such a Call Put duality for perpetual American options. It turns out that the perpetual American Put price is equal to the perpetual American C...

Basket Option Pricing Using GP-GPU Hardware Acceleration

KAUST Repository

Douglas, Craig C.; Lee, Hyoseop

2010-01-01

We introduce a basket option pricing problem arisen in financial mathematics. We discretized the problem based on the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method and parallel cyclic reduction is applied to solve the set of tridiagonal matrices

Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2013-01-01

This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2012-01-01

This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

Lookback Option Pricing with Fixed Proportional Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jiao-Jiao; Zhou, Shengwu; Zhang, Yan; Han, Miao; Wang, Fei

2014-01-01

The pricing problem of lookback option with a fixed proportion of transaction costs is investigated when the underlying asset price follows a fractional Brownian motion process. Firstly, using Leland's hedging method a partial differential equation satisfied by the value of the lookback option is derived. Then we obtain its numerical solution by constructing a Crank-Nicolson format. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed form is verified through a numerical example. Meanwhile, the impact of transaction cost rate and volatility on lookback option value is discussed.

Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Merino

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.

On option pricing models in the presence of heavy tails

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vellekoop, Michel; Nieuwenhuis, Hans

2007-01-01

We propose a modification of the option pricing framework derived by Borland which removes the possibilities for arbitrage within this framework. It turns out that such arbitrage possibilities arise due to an incorrect derivation of the martingale transformation in the non-Gaussian option models

A note on the pricing of the perpetual American capped power put option

OpenAIRE

Sakagami, Yoshitaka

2012-01-01

We give an explicit solution to the perpetual American capped power put option pricing problem in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model. The approach is mainly based on free-boundary formulation and verification. For completeness we also give an explicit solution to the perpetual American standard power (≥1) option pricing problem.

Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Lung Yuen

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.

Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices

Science.gov (United States)

Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.

2004-12-01

Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).

An Optional Instrument for European Insurance Contract Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helmut Heiss

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The Principles of European Insurance Contract Law, also referred tousing the acronym PEICL, were published in September 2009. They are the result of ten years of academic work undertaken by the"Restatement of European Insurance Contract Law" Project Group. In the time since its establishment in 1999, the project has been transformed from being a stand-alone project to a part of the CoPECL (Common Principles of European Insurance Contract Law network, drafting a specific part of the Common Frame of Reference. Having continually worked under the guiding principle that "the law of insurance [in Europe] must be one," it now represents a serious option for providing Europe with a single legal framework for insurance contracts.Despite the European Council's proclamations that the Common Frame of Reference will remain a non-binding instrument, the implementation of one or more optional instruments in the future does not appear to beimprobable considering recent developments. The possibility of anoptional instrument has been expressed more than once by the European Commission in its Action Plan and Communication on European Contract Law. Other indications in favour of an optional instrument include the European Parliament's repeated references to the Common Frame of Reference as providing, at the very least, a model for a futureoptional instrument, as well as the EESC's earlier proposal of anoptional instrument as an alternative to standardising insurancecontract law. The preparation by the EESC of another (own-initiative opinion on European contract law is underway, and its presentation is anticipated in 2010. Hence, the optional instrument is evidently the subject of serious political deliberation. Using Article 1:102, the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law represent a prototype for such an instrument.

An Optional Instrument for European Insurance Contract Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mandeep Lakhan

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The Principles of European Insurance Contract Law, also referred tousing the acronym PEICL, were published in September 2009. They are the result of ten years of academic work undertaken by the"Restatement of European Insurance Contract Law" Project Group. In the time since its establishment in 1999, the project has been transformed from being a stand-alone project to a part of the CoPECL (Common Principles of European Insurance Contract Law network, drafting a specific part of the Common Frame of Reference. Having continually worked under the guiding principle that "the law of insurance [in Europe] must be one," it now represents a serious option for providing Europe with a single legal framework for insurance contracts. Despite the European Council's proclamations that the Common Frame of Reference will remain a non-binding instrument, the implementation of one or more optional instruments in the future does not appear to beimprobable considering recent developments. The possibility of anoptional instrument has been expressed more than once by the European Commission in its Action Plan and Communication on European Contract Law. Other indications in favour of an optional instrument include the European Parliament's repeated references to the Common Frame of Reference as providing, at the very least, a model for a futureoptional instrument, as well as the EESC's earlier proposal of anoptional instrument as an alternative to standardising insurancecontract law. The preparation by the EESC of another (own-initiative opinion on European contract law is underway, and its presentation is anticipated in 2010. Hence, the optional instrument is evidently the subject of serious political deliberation. Using Article 1:102, the Principles of European Insurance Contract Law represent a prototype for such an instrument.

Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

Model Calibration in Option Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre Loerx

2012-04-01

Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.

Proportional Transaction Costs in the Robust Control Approach to Option Pricing: The Uniqueness Theorem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El Farouq, Naïma, E-mail: naima.elfarouq@univ-bpclermont.fr [Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand II) (France); Bernhard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.bernhard@inria.fr [INRIA Sophia Antipolis-Méditerranée (France)

2015-10-15

We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete.

Proportional Transaction Costs in the Robust Control Approach to Option Pricing: The Uniqueness Theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Farouq, Naïma; Bernhard, Pierre

2015-01-01

We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete

Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars

This paper uses asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models to fit return data and to price options. The models can be estimated straightforwardly by maximum likelihood, have high statistical fit when used on S&P 500 index return data, and allow for substantial negative skewness and time...... varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. When forecasting out-of-sample a large set of index options between 1996 and 2009, substantial improvements are found compared to several benchmark models in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities...

Option Valuation with Volatility Components, Fat Tails, and Nonlinear Pricing Kernels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Babaoglu, Kadir Gokhan; Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven

We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A second volatility factor is economically most i...

[Policies encouraging price competition in the generic drug market: Lessons from the European experience].

Science.gov (United States)

Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2010-01-01

To describe alternative policies aimed at encouraging price competition in generic drug markets in countries with strict price regulation, and to present some case studies drawn from the European experience. Systematic literature review of articles and technical reports published after 1999. The shortcomings in consumer price competition observed in some European generic markets, including Spain, may be reduced through three types of public reimbursement or financing reforms: policies aimed at improving the design of current maximum reimbursement level policies; policies aimed at monitoring competitive prices in order to reimburse real acquisition cost to pharmacies; and, more radical and market-oriented policies such as competitive tendering of public drug purchases. The experience of recent reforms adopted in Germany, Belgium, Holland, Norway, and Sweden offers a useful guide for highly price-regulated European countries, such as Spain, currently characterized by limited consumer price competition and the high discounts offered to pharmacy purchases. Direct price regulation and/or the generic reference pricing systems used to reduce generic drug prices in many European countries can be successfully reformed by adopting measures more closely aimed at encouraging consumer price competition in generic drug markets. Copyright 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2017-01-01

The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance model is not a martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the price for which put-call parity holds and the price that represents the lowest cost of

On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veestraeten, D.

2014-01-01

The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model is a strict local martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the risk-neutral call price and an alternative price that is linked to the unique

Static super-replicating strategies for a class of exotic options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, X.; Deelstra, G.; Dhaene, J.; Vanmaele, M.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we investigate static super-replicating strategies for European-type call options written on a weighted sum of asset prices. This class of exotic options includes Asian options and basket options among others. We assume that there exists a market where the plain vanilla options on the

Asian Option Pricing with Monotonous Transaction Costs under Fractional Brownian Motion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Di Pan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Geometric-average Asian option pricing model with monotonous transaction cost rate under fractional Brownian motion was established. The method of partial differential equations was used to solve this model and the analytical expressions of the Asian option value were obtained. The numerical experiments show that Hurst exponent of the fractional Brownian motion and transaction cost rate have a significant impact on the option value.

Pricing of American Put Option under a Jump Diffusion Process with Stochastic Volatility in an Incomplete Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuang Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We study the pricing of American options in an incomplete market in which the dynamics of the underlying risky asset is driven by a jump diffusion process with stochastic volatility. By employing a risk-minimization criterion, we obtain the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the minimal martingale measure and consequently a linear complementarity problem (LCP for American option price. An iterative method is then established to solve the LCP problem for American put option price. Our numerical results show that the model and numerical scheme are robust in capturing the feature of incomplete finance market, particularly the influence of market volatility on the price of American options.

An iterative two-step algorithm for American option pricing

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Siddiqi, A. H.; Manchanda, P.; Kočvara, Michal

2000-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 2 (2000), s. 71-84 ISSN 0953-0061 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA1075707 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Keywords : American option pricing * linear complementarity * iterative methods Subject RIV: AH - Economics

The energy price in the European Union in 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This document presents and briefly comments data and figures on the prices of natural gas and of electricity for industries and for households, of their evolution in comparison with what they were in 2009 in the different countries of the European Union. These prices are given with VAT included or not

Real Style: Riegl and Early 20th Century Central European Art

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimberly A. Smith

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Originally published in Centropa: Journal of Central European Art and Architecture 5, n. 1 (January 2005: 16-25. Kimberly A. Smith discusses the ways in which the understanding of style was articulated by intellectuals working in the late nineteenth century, primarily in Germany and Austria, and the epistemological repercussions of this shift in thinking for both the theory and practice of central European art in the years before World War I. Smith focuses in particular on the writings of Alois Riegl, in which this approach to thinking about style came to its most influential fruition, and proposes that Riegl’s conception of form had implications for artistic practice. Riegl’s methodological understanding of artistic form drew connections between morphological types and perceptions of reality, thereby altering the ways in which artists could conceive of aesthetic authenticity. Style itself could be seen as the harbinger of truth, opening up the possibility that any style might offer a genuine revelation of the real. Yet as Smith shows, the Rieglian theory of meaningful form may have encouraged an artistic pluralism that subverted the very Kunstwollen theory of historically unified style from which it sprung.

76 FR 72986 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-28

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-65795; File No. SR-OPRA-2011-04] Options Price... Implement the Datafeed Policy November 21, 2011. Pursuant to Section 11A of the Securities Exchange Act of... Options Price Reporting Authority (``OPRA'') submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission...

A Generic Decomposition Formula for Pricing Vanilla Options under Stochastic Volatility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Merino

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We obtain a decomposition of the call option price for a very general stochastic volatility diffusion model, extending a previous decomposition formula for the Heston model. We realize that a new term arises when the stock price does not follow an exponential model. The techniques used for this purpose are nonanticipative. In particular, we also see that equivalent results can be obtained by using Functional Itô Calculus. Using the same generalizing ideas, we also extend to nonexponential models the alternative call option price decomposition formula written in terms of the Malliavin derivative of the volatility process. Finally, we give a general expression for the derivative of the implied volatility under both the anticipative and the nonanticipative cases.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

2011-01-01

of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

The COS Method : An Efficient Fourier Method for Pricing Financial Derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fang, F.

2010-01-01

When valuing and risk-managing financial derivatives, practitioners demand fast and accurate prices and sensitivities. Aside from the pricing of non-standard exotic financial derivatives, so-called plain vanilla European options form the basis for the calibration of financial models. As any pricing

A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

2010-01-01

We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

Policy options for pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing: issues for low- and middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Knight, Rosemary; Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Brooks, Geoffrey; Mant, Andrea

2015-03-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure is rising globally. Most high-income countries have exercised pricing or purchasing strategies to address this pressure. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, usually have less regulated pharmaceutical markets and often lack feasible pricing or purchasing strategies, notwithstanding their wish to effectively manage medicine budgets. In high-income countries, most medicines payments are made by the state or health insurance institutions. In LMICs, most pharmaceutical expenditure is out-of-pocket which creates a different dynamic for policy enforcement. The paucity of rigorous studies on the effectiveness of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing strategies makes it especially difficult for policy makers in LMICs to decide on a course of action. This article reviews published articles on pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies. Many policy options for medicine pricing and purchasing have been found to work but they also have attendant risks. No one option is decisively preferred; rather a mix of options may be required based on country-specific context. Empirical studies in LMICs are lacking. However, risks from any one policy option can reasonably be argued to be greater in LMICs which often lack strong legal systems, purchasing and state institutions to underpin the healthcare system. Key factors are identified to assist LMICs improve their medicine pricing and purchasing systems. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinfeng Ruan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

77 FR 56243 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-12

... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-67791; File No. SR-OPRA-2012-05] Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Amendment to the Plan for...'') \\1\\ and Rule 608 thereunder,\\2\\ notice is hereby given that on August 27, 2012, the Options Price...

Pricing FX Options in the Heston/CIR Jump-Diffusion Model with Log-Normal and Log-Uniform Jump Amplitudes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rehez Ahlip

2015-01-01

model for the exchange rate with log-normal jump amplitudes and the volatility model with log-uniformly distributed jump amplitudes. We assume that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semianalytical formula for the price of the foreign exchange European call option.

Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II

OpenAIRE

Wilfried Rickels; Dennis Görlich; Gerrit Oberst

2010-01-01

In 2005, the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) established a new commodity: the right to emit a ton of CO2 (EUA). Since its launch, the corresponding price has shown rather turbulent dynamics, including nervous reactions to policy announcements and a price collapse after a visible over-allocation in Phase I. As a consequence, the question whether fundamental factors (fossil fuel prices, economic activity, weather) affect the EUA price remained partially unresolved. Today, being halfwa...

On the Information in the Interest Rate Term Structure and Option Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.; Pelsser, A.

2004-01-01

We examine whether the information in cap and swaption prices is consistent with realized movements of the interest rate term structure. To extract an option-implied interest rate covariance matrix from cap and swaption prices, we use Libor market models as a modelling framework. We propose a

Arbitrage-free valuation of energy derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amin, K.; Ng, V.; Pirrong, C.

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on techniques available for valuing energy-contingent claims and develops an arbitrage-free framework to value energy derivatives. The relationship between the spot, forward and futures prices is explained. Option valuation with deterministic convenience yields is discussed using an extension of the Black (1976) framework, and details of the risk-neutral valuation of European options, and valuation of American and European-style options are given. Option valuations with stochastic convenience yields, the evolution of the term structure of convenience yield, and a tree approach to valuing American and other options are discussed. Applications and limitations of the models for pricing energy derivative products are considered. The stochastic differential equation for the futures prices when the convenience yields are stochastic is presented in an appendix

A Simple Approach to Interest-Rate Option Pricing.

OpenAIRE

Turnbull, Stuart M; Milne, Frank

1991-01-01

A simple introduction to contingent claim valuation of risky assets in a discrete time, stochastic interest-rate economy is provided. Taking the term structure of interest rates as exogenous, closed-form solutions are derived for European options written on (1) Treasury bills, (2) interest-rate forward contracts, (3) interest-rate futures contracts, (4) Treasury bonds, (5) interest-rate caps, (6) stock options, (7) equity forward contracts, (8) equity futures contracts, (9) Eurodollar liabili...

Association of Cigarette Price Differentials With Infant Mortality in 23 European Union Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Filippidis, Filippos T; Laverty, Anthony A; Hone, Thomas; Been, Jasper V; Millett, Christopher

2017-11-01

Raising the price of cigarettes by increasing taxation has been associated with improved perinatal and child health outcomes. Transnational tobacco companies have sought to undermine tobacco tax policy by adopting pricing strategies that maintain the availability of budget cigarettes. To assess associations between median cigarette prices, cigarette price differentials, and infant mortality across the European Union. A longitudinal, ecological study was conducted from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2014, of infant populations in 23 countries (comprising 276 subnational regions) within the European Union. Median cigarette prices and the differential between these and minimum cigarette prices were obtained from Euromonitor International. Pricing differentials were calculated as the proportions (%) obtained by dividing the difference between median and minimum cigarette price by median price. Prices were adjusted for inflation. Annual infant mortality rates. Associations were assessed using linear fixed-effect panel regression models adjusted for smoke-free policies, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, education, maternal age, and underlining temporal trends. Among the 53 704 641 live births during the study period, an increase of €1 (US $1.18) per pack in the median cigarette price was associated with a decline of 0.23 deaths per 1000 live births in the same year (95% CI, -0.37 to -0.09) and a decline of 0.16 deaths per 1000 live births the following year (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.03). An increase of 10% in the price differential between median-priced and minimum-priced cigarettes was associated with an increase of 0.07 deaths per 1000 live births (95% CI, 0.01-0.13) the following year. Cigarette price increases across 23 European countries between 2004 and 2014 were associated with 9208 (95% CI, 8601-9814) fewer infant deaths; 3195 (95% CI, 3017-3372) infant deaths could have been avoided had there been no cost differential between the median-priced and

Pricing High-Dimensional American Options Using Local Consistency Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

2004-01-01

We investigate a new method for pricing high-dimensional American options. The method is of finite difference type but is also related to Monte Carlo techniques in that it involves a representative sampling of the underlying variables.An approximating Markov chain is built using this sampling and

European bond markets: do illiquidity and concentration aggravate price shocks?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boermans, M.A.; Frost, Jon; Steins Bisschop, Sophie

2016-01-01

We study the effects of market liquidity and ownership concentration of European bonds on price volatility during periods of market stress. Specifically, using security-by-security data from euro area investors we examine if market illiquidity and concentrated holdings explain the large price shocks

Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jungwook; Ratti, Ronald A.

2008-01-01

Oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1-2005:12. Norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns. The contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing European countries. (author)

Pricing of contract options for electric power; Precificacao de contrato de opcoes de energia eletrica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takahashi, Leticia; Gunn, Laura Keiko; Correia, Paulo B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia

2008-07-01

The reorganization of the electric sector has improved the opportunity of energy trade through contracts, which have to be considered on the risk evaluation for generating companies. Different types of contracts have been used in electric energy commercialization. This work develops a model for option contract pricing. The classic model of options pricing used in the financial market is based in Black- Scholes. Due to the inherent feature of the Brazilian electrical system, with a strong predominance of hydroelectricity, the seasonal swing of the electricity price is the main source of contractual risk. So, the Black-Scholes model very is not adjusted. To deal with the uncertainties, this work uses an approach based on analysis of scenarios and binomial trees. Case studies are analyzed with binomial tree to calculate the price of the option contract. (author)

Coarse Thinking and Pricing a Financial Option

OpenAIRE

Siddiqi, Hammad

2009-01-01

Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] present a formalization of the concept of coarse thinking in the context of a model of persuasion. The essential idea behind coarse thinking is that people put situations into categories and the values assigned to attributes in a given situation are affected by the values of corresponding attributes in other co-categorized situations. We derive a new option pricing formula based on the assumption that the market consists of coars...

A closed form solution for vulnerable options with Heston’s stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Min-Ku; Yang, Sung-Jin; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

2016-01-01

Over-the-counter stock markets in the world have been growing rapidly and vulnerability to default risks of option holders traded in the over-the-counter markets became an important issue, in particular, since the global finance crisis and Eurozone crisis. This paper studies the pricing of European-type vulnerable options when the underlying asset follows the Heston dynamics. In this paper, we obtain a closed form analytic formula of the option price as a stochastic volatility extension of the classical Heston formula and find how the stochastic volatility effect on the Black–Scholes price as well as on the decreasing speed of the option price with credit risk depends on moneyness.

A tree-based method to price American options in the Heston model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vellekoop, M.; Nieuwenhuis, H.

2009-01-01

We develop an algorithm to price American options on assets that follow the stochastic volatility model defined by Heston. We use an approach which is based on a modification of a combined tree for stock prices and volatilities, where the number of nodes grows quadratically in the number of time

The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Neng-fu(张能福); CAI Si-jing(蔡嗣经); LIU Chao-ma(刘朝马); TANG Rui(唐瑞)

2003-01-01

A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.

Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakić Biljana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

Consequences for option pricing of a long memory in volatility

OpenAIRE

Taylor, S J

2001-01-01

The economic consequences of a long memory assumption about volatility are documented, by comparing implied volatilities for option prices obtained from short and long memory volatility processes. Numerical results are given for options on the S&P 100 index from 1984 to 1998, with lives up to two years. The long memory assumption is found to have a significant impact upon the term structure of implied volatilities and a relatively minor impact upon smile effects. These conclusions are importa...

European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abadie, Luis M.; Chamorro, Jose M.

2008-01-01

We assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant operating in a carbon-constrained environment. We consider two sources of risk, namely the price of emission allowance and the price of the electricity output. First we analyse the performance of the EU market for CO 2 emission allowances. Specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008 to 2012) and calibrate the underlying parameters of the allowance price process. Then we refer to the Spanish wholesale electricity market and calibrate the parameters of the electricity price process. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice to derive the optimal investment rule. In particular, we obtain the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the effect of changes in several variables on these critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, immediate installation does not seem justified from a financial point of view. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically, carbon capture technology undergoes significant improvements, and/or a specific governmental policy to promote these units is adopted. (author)

The price of cigarettes in the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Montes, A; Villalbí, J R

2001-06-01

A major factor influencing tobacco use is its price. Fiscal policies on tobacco are a key ingredient of any comprehensive control strategy, as they can be used to raise prices. The European Union (EU) developed directives to ensure some harmonisation of the fiscal pressure on tobacco across its member states. To provide a simple comparison of tobacco prices in the EU, adjusting for the purchasing power of each currency. For price comparisons, a 20 units pack of Marlboro was the reference product, and data refer to April 2000. Purchasing power parities (PPP) for each member state currency have been compiled. These are currency conversion rates, which convert to a common currency and equalise the purchasing power of different currencies. Nominal prices of a Marlboro pack for each member state, and a price index, estimated taking as reference the EU mean. Adjusted prices and an adjusted price index have been estimated using PPP. Nominal prices show wide variation, with the cheapest pack in Portugal (59) and the most expensive in the UK (196); the range of variation is three-fold. However, PPP adjusted prices reveal a different distribution. In three countries adjusted prices are outliers, but all other countries make two clusters, one around the average EU index of 100, the other around a lower value of 85. These results suggest that fiscal harmonisation policies in the EU do not have an even effect at reducing availability by its impact in price.

Forecasting European thermal coal spot prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alicja Krzemień

2015-01-01

Finally, in order to analyse the time series model performance a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN was used and its performance compared against the whole AR(2 process. Empirical results obtained confirmed that there is no statistically significant difference between both methods. The GRNN analysis also allowed pointing out the main drivers that move the European Thermal Coal Spot prices: crude oil, USD/CNY change and supply side drivers.

Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte; Hansen, Charlotte Strunk

2002-01-01

We analyze the empirical properties of the volatility implied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options have not been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put option on the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond. We apply the LIBOR...

Smoothing the payoff for efficient computation of Basket option prices

KAUST Repository

Bayer, Christian

2017-07-22

We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non-smooth integrands. Due to this lack of regularity, higher order numerical integration techniques may not be directly available, requiring the use of methods like Monte Carlo specifically designed to work for non-regular problems. We propose to use the inherent smoothing property of the density of the underlying in the above models to mollify the payoff function by means of an exact conditional expectation. The resulting conditional expectation is unbiased and yields a smooth integrand, which is amenable to the efficient use of adaptive sparse-grid cubature. Numerical examples indicate that the high-order method may perform orders of magnitude faster than Monte Carlo or Quasi Monte Carlo methods in dimensions up to 35.

Plea for European Price Anderson legislation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roser, T.

1992-01-01

The paper analyses the essential features and the basic differences in nuclear liability and coverage in the United States where the problem is governed by the Price-Anderson legislation, and the Member States of the European Community which adhere to the Paris Convention on Third Party Liability in the Field of Nuclear Energy. The paper undertakes to show that it is possible to introduce into the European Community certain elements of the American regime, in particular the solidarity of nuclear operators and the retroactive premium coverage without violating the basic principles of the Paris Convention. Consequently the paper advocates the adoption of such rules in Europe as a step towards harmonisation of nuclear coverage and safety and a means to reduce government interference. (author)

Basket Option Pricing Using GP-GPU Hardware Acceleration

KAUST Repository

Douglas, Craig C.

2010-08-01

We introduce a basket option pricing problem arisen in financial mathematics. We discretized the problem based on the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method and parallel cyclic reduction is applied to solve the set of tridiagonal matrices generated by the ADI method. To reduce the computational time of the problem, a general purpose graphics processing units (GP-GPU) environment is considered. Numerical results confirm the convergence and efficiency of the proposed method. © 2010 IEEE.

An irregular grid approach for pricing high-dimensional American options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

2008-01-01

We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting. The method is centered around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

An Irregular Grid Approach for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

2004-01-01

We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting.The method is centred around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid.We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

Carbon price signal. Impact Analysis on the European Electricity System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries late in December 2015, after COP 21, created a new basis for efficient cooperation between countries in the fight against climate change. The technologies being rolled out by the electricity sector will have very different impacts on climate change and, for the time being, investments other than public aid for renewable energies are being guided primarily by prices. To shed more slight on the issue of greenhouse gas emissions, which is closely related to the challenges addressed at COP21, RTE initiated a study in 2015 based on the models used in its Generation Adequacy Report. ADEME wanted to contribute to this effort and offer its support. The present document outlines the approach taken to assessing the impact of the carbon price signal on emissions from the European electric power system, its production costs and its structural evolution over the medium term. This approach was discussed with members of the 'Network Outlook Committee' of the Transmission System Users' Committee which includes environmental NGOs as well as the main economic actors from the power sector. Key findings resulting from the analysis developed in this report include: Simulations conducted with the current generation fleet show that the carbon price would have to be close to euro 30/tonne at the European level to drive a significant reduction in emissions (about 100 million tonnes a year, or 15 %) from the European power sector. A higher price of about euro 100/tonne would help drive an emissions reduction of close to 30%. Over the medium and long terms, beyond an impact on the number of hours fossil fuel power plants would be run, having a high carbon price would send a signal encouraging investment in renewable energies and could incentivise the development of flexible and storage capacity. It would notably guarantee the profitability of gas-fired plants and renewable power development. The following assumptions are factored into the study

Efficiency of S&P CNX Nifty Index Option of the National Stock Exchange (NSE, India, using Box Spread Arbitrage Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. P. Girish

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Box spread is a trading strategy in which one simultaneously buys and sells options having the same underlying asset and time to expiration, but different exercise prices. This study examined the efficiency of European style S&P CNX Nifty Index options of National Stock Exchange, (NSE India by making use of high-frequency data on put and call options written on Nifty (Time-stamped transactions data for the time period between 1st January 2002 and 31st December 2005 using box-spread arbitrage strategy. The advantages of box-spreads include reduced joint hypothesis problem since there is no consideration of pricing model or market equilibrium, no consideration of inter-market non-synchronicity since trading box spreads involve only one market, computational simplicity with less chances of mis-specification error, estimation error and the fact that buying and selling box spreads more or less replicates risk-free lending and borrowing. One thousand three hundreds and fifty eight exercisable box-spreads were found for the time period considered of which 78 Box spreads were found to be profitable after incorporating transaction costs (32 profitable box spreads were identified for the year 2002, 19 in 2003, 14 in 2004 and 13 in 2005 The results of our study suggest that internal option market efficiency has improved over the years for S&P CNX Nifty Index options of NSE India.

Stock Price Simulation Using Bootstrap and Monte Carlo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pažický Martin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an attempt is made to assessment and comparison of bootstrap experiment and Monte Carlo experiment for stock price simulation. Since the stock price evolution in the future is extremely important for the investors, there is the attempt to find the best method how to determine the future stock price of BNP Paribas′ bank. The aim of the paper is define the value of the European and Asian option on BNP Paribas′ stock at the maturity date. There are employed four different methods for the simulation. First method is bootstrap experiment with homoscedastic error term, second method is blocked bootstrap experiment with heteroscedastic error term, third method is Monte Carlo simulation with heteroscedastic error term and the last method is Monte Carlo simulation with homoscedastic error term. In the last method there is necessary to model the volatility using econometric GARCH model. The main purpose of the paper is to compare the mentioned methods and select the most reliable. The difference between classical European option and exotic Asian option based on the experiment results is the next aim of tis paper.

Analytical pricing of geometric Asian power options on an underlying driven by a mixed fractional Brownian motion

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei-Guo; Li, Zhe; Liu, Yong-Jun

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the pricing problem of the continuously monitored fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options in a mixed fractional Brownian motion environment. First, we derive both closed-form solutions and mixed fractional partial differential equations for fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options based on delta-hedging strategy and partial differential equation method. Second, we present the lower and upper bounds of the prices of fixed and floating strike geometric Asian power options under the assumption that both risk-free interest rate and volatility are interval numbers. Finally, numerical studies are performed to illustrate the performance of our proposed pricing model.

Gas and electricity price in the European Union in 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Jean-Philippe

2012-11-01

This document indicates and comments the evolution of gas and electricity prices in the different countries of the European Union. As far as natural gas is concerned, it outlines that taxes on gas are higher in Nordic countries, and that prices are increasing everywhere (for industry as well as for households). As far as electricity is concerned, price is rather cheap in France compared to the other countries. Graphs indicate the evolution of electricity prices between 2010 and 2011 in the different countries for industry and households. Even if a decrease has been noticed in some countries, the general trend is to an increase (between 5 and 10% in average)

Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cunado, Juncal; Gracia, Fernando Perez de

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes the oil price-macro economy relationship by means of analyzing the impact of oil prices on inflation and industrial production indexes for many European countries using quarterly data for the period 1960-1999. First, we test for cointegration allowing for structural breaks among the variables. Second, and in order to account for the possible non-linear relationships, we use different transformation of oil price data. The main results suggest that oil prices have permanent effects on inflation and short run but asymmetric effects on production growth rates. Furthermore, significant differences are found among the responses of the countries to these shocks. (Author)

Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Toppinen, Anne

2013-01-01

We study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the EU. Our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant. The carbon price may increase price differences in the short run. We apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings. Our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices. - Highlights: • We model the integrating European electricity market under emissions trading scheme. • We examine the impact of carbon price on the electricity market prices. • We test theoretical hypotheses with econometric models. • Results show carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices. • Integration among electricity prices has increased during 2003–2011

Stochastic Differential Equation Models for the Price of European CO2 Emissions Allowances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wugan Cai

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Understanding the stochastic nature of emissions allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions trading markets. In this study, we discuss the emissions allowances spot price within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: Powernext and European Climate Exchange. To compare the fitness of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs to the European Union allowances spot price, we apply regression theory to obtain the point and interval estimations for the parameters of the SDEs. An empirical evaluation demonstrates that the mean reverting square root process (MRSRP has the best fitness of five SDEs to forecast the spot price. To reduce the degree of smog, we develop a new trading scheme in which firms have to hand many more allowances to the government when they emit one unit of air pollution on heavy pollution days, versus one allowance on clean days. Thus, we set up the SDE MRSRP model with Markovian switching to analyse the evolution of the spot price in such a scheme. The analysis shows that the allowances spot price will not jump too much in the new scheme. The findings of this study could contribute to developing a new type of emissions trading.

Carbon prices and CCS investment: A comparative study between the European Union and China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renner, Marie

2014-01-01

Carbon Capture and Storage is considered as a key option for climate change mitigation; policy makers and investors need to know when CCS becomes economically attractive. Integrating CCS in a power plant adds significant costs which can be offset by a sufficient CO 2 price. However, most markets have failed: currently, the weak carbon price threatens CCS deployment in the European Union (EU). In China, a carbon regulation is appearing and CCS encounters a rising interest. This study investigates two questions: how much is the extra-cost of a CCS plant in the EU in comparison with China? Second, what is the CO 2 price beyond which CCS plants become more profitable than reference plants in the EU and in China? To address these issues, I conducted a literature review on public studies about CCS costs. To objectively assess the profitability of CCS plants, I constructed a net present value model to calculate the Levelised Cost of Electricity and the breakeven CO 2 price. CCS plants become the most profitable plant type beyond 115 €/tCO 2 in the EU vs. 45 €/tCO 2 in China (offshore transport and storage costs). I advise on the optimal plant type choice depending on the CO 2 price in both countries. - Highlights: • I develop a method to objectively update and compare CCS costs in the EU and China. • To represent investment choices, intra and inter CO 2 switching prices are required. • EU CCS plants are profitable for a CO 2 price higher than 115 €/t (offshore storage). • Chinese CCS plants are profitable beyond 45 €/tCO 2 (35 €/tCO 2 with onshore storage). • With 2030 projections, CCS (coal) plants are profitable in China but not in the EU

76 FR 17727 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Approving Proposed Rule...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-30

...-settled, European-style options. In the event of a corporate event that eliminates one of the underlying... Options are highly similar to other index options cleared by OCC except for the identity and nature of the... similar corporate event. If the value of an underlying Relative Performance Index ceases to be published...

Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices

OpenAIRE

Siddiqi, Hammad

2011-01-01

People tend to think by analogies and comparisons. Such way of thinking, termed coarse thinking by Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] is intuitively very appealing. We develop a new option pricing model based on the idea that the market consists of coarse thinkers as well as rational investors when limits to arbitrage (transaction costs) prevent rational investors from profiting at the expense of coarse thinkers. The new formula, which is a closed form solution to t...

Pricing early-exercise and discrete barrier options by Shannon wavelet expansions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maree, S. C.; Ortiz-Gracia, L.; Oosterlee, C. W.

2017-01-01

We present a pricing method based on Shannon wavelet expansions for early-exercise and discretely-monitored barrier options under exponential L,vy asset dynamics. Shannon wavelets are smooth, and thus approximate the densities that occur in finance well, resulting in exponential convergence.

76 FR 6648 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-07

...-settled, European-style options. In the event of a corporate event that eliminates one of the underlying... Performance Options are highly similar to other index options cleared by OCC except for the identity and... similar corporate event. If the value of an underlying Relative Performance Index ceases to be published...

Using Localised Quadratic Functions on an Irregular Grid for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.

2004-01-01

We propose a method for pricing high-dimensional American options on an irregular grid; the method involves using quadratic functions to approximate the local effect of the Black-Scholes operator.Once such an approximation is known, one can solve the pricing problem by time stepping in an explicit

Price risk perceptions and management strategies in selected European food supply chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Assefa, Tsion T.; Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.

2017-01-01

Agricultural prices in European food markets have become more volatile over the past decade exposing agribusinesses to risk and uncertainty. This study goes beyond the farm stage and explores through interviews the price risk perceptions and management strategies in multiple stages of the food

Pricing long-term options with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Haastrecht, A.

2010-01-01

The markets for long-term options have expanded tremendously over the last decade. Nowadays many of these derivatives along with pension schemes and insurance products depend on joint changes in stock prices, interest rates and inflation. As a result the dependencies between the underlying assets

Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

1993-01-01

Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

On pricing futures options on random binomial tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir

2013-01-01

The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.

Price war or instrumentalization of price uncertainty: which strategy for a dominant provider on the European gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boussena, Sadek; Locatelli, Catherine

2016-03-01

The objective of this article is to try to assess which strategy could be implemented by a European dominant provider (or a group of big providers) during the current phase of transition of the European gas market in order to keep (or increase) his market shares and maximise his revenues. The authors aim at exploring possibilities of strategic actions on the long term other than those of defence of volumes through a price war, or the possibility of a strategy similar to that of Saudi Arabia which instrumentalises uncertainty on future prices. This last type of strategy is defined for the case of natural gas. The authors show that it could be implemented on the EU gas market, provided some specific conditions. They show that Gazprom has not enough power to become a price maker, and explore which kind of strategy of uncertainty could be implemented by this actor

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ante Nosić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

Pricing and hedging high-dimensional American options : an irregular grid approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.; Schumacher, H.

2002-01-01

We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high dimensional setting. The method is centred around the approximation of the associated variational inequality on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE

Intraday price discovery in emerging European stock markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen

-, č. 382 (2009), s. 1-35 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : price discovery * stock markets * intra-day data * European Union * macroeconomic news Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp382.pdf

Energy exotic options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

1999-01-01

This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities

Science.gov (United States)

Decamps, Marc; De Schepper, Ann; Goovaerts, Marc

2004-11-01

In the recent econophysics literature, the use of functional integrals is widespread for the calculation of option prices. In this paper, we extend this approach in several directions by means of δ-function perturbations. First, we show that results about infinitely repulsive δ-function are applicable to the pricing of barrier options. We also introduce functional integrals over skew paths that give rise to a new European option formula when combined with δ-function potential. We propose accurate closed-form approximations based on the theory of comonotonic risks in case the functional integrals are not analytically computable.

Differential pricing of new pharmaceuticals in lower income European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaló, Zoltán; Annemans, Lieven; Garrison, Louis P

2013-12-01

Pharmaceutical companies adjust the pricing strategy of innovative medicines to the imperatives of their major markets. The ability of payers to influence the ex-factory price of new drugs depends on country population size and income per capita, among other factors. Differential pricing based on Ramsey principles is a 'second-best' solution to correct the imperfections of the global market for innovative pharmaceuticals, and it is also consistent with standard norms of equity. This analysis summarizes the boundaries of differential pharmaceutical pricing for policymakers, payers and other stakeholders in lower-income countries, with special focus on Central-Eastern Europe, and describes the feasibility and implications of potential solutions to ensure lower pharmaceutical prices as compared to higher-income countries. European stakeholders, especially in Central-Eastern Europe and at the EU level, should understand the implications of increased transparency of pricing and should develop solutions to prevent the limited accessibility of new medicines in lower-income countries.

Are Negative Option Prices Possible? The Callable U.S. Treasury-Bond Puzzle.

OpenAIRE

Longstaff, Francis A

1992-01-01

Market prices for callable Treasury bonds often imply negative values for the implicit call option. The author considers a variety of possible explanations for these negative values including the Treasury's track record in calling bonds optimally, tax-related effects, tax-timing options, and bond liquidity. None of these factors accounts for the negative values. Although the costs of short selling may explain why these apparent arbitrage opportunities persist over time, why these implicit cal...

Hybrid Pricing in a Coupled European Power Market with More Wind Power

OpenAIRE

Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong; Panos, Evangelos

2015-01-01

In the European market, the promotion of wind power leads to more network congestion. Zonal pricing (market coupling), which does not take the physical characteristics of transmission into account, is the most commonly used method to relieve congestion in Europe. Zonal pricing fails to provide adequate locational price signals regarding the energy resource scarcity and thus creates a large amount of unscheduled cross-border flows originating from wind-generated power, making the interconne...

The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statisticaltech......We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric...... components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) modelfor the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity of implied volatility inthe forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility is a biased and inefficient forecast in thebond market. However, implied volatility does...

The electricity prices in the European Union. The role of renewable energies and regulatory electric market reforms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno, Blanca; López, Ana J.; García-Álvarez, María Teresa

2012-01-01

The European Union electricity market has been gradually liberalized since 1990s. Theoretically, competitive markets should lead to efficiency gains in the economy thus reducing electricity prices. However, there is a controversial debate about the real effects of the electricity liberalization on electricity prices. Moreover, the increased generation of electricity from renewable energies RES-E (Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources) is also integrated in wholesale market reducing wholesale prices, but the final effect over household prices is not clear. In order to contribute to this debate, this paper provides an empirical investigation into the electricity prices determinants. In fact we develop econometric panel models to explore the relationship between the household electricity prices and variables related to the renewable energy sources and the competition in generation electricity market. More specifically we use a panel data set provided by Eurostat and covering 27 European Union countries during the period 1998–2009. Our results suggest that electricity prices increase with the deployment of RES-E and with the expansion of greenhouse gas emissions produced by energy industries- as a European Union CO 2 emission trading scheme exists. Results also reveal that country's characteristics can affect household electricity prices. -- Highlights: ► Electricity liberalized markets should lead to reduce electricity prices. ► The use of renewable energies (RES) reduce wholesale electricity prices. ► However, household electricity prices are increasing in European Union. ► Panel data models are developed to investigate the effect of RES and electricity competition on household electricity prices. ► We find that the deployment of RES increases prices paid by consumers in a liberalized market.

The association between depression and eating styles in four European countries: The MooDFOOD prevention study.

Science.gov (United States)

Paans, Nadine P G; Bot, Mariska; Brouwer, Ingeborg A; Visser, Marjolein; Roca, Miquel; Kohls, Elisabeth; Watkins, Ed; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2018-05-01

Depression, one of the most prevalent and disabling disorders in Europe, is thought to be associated with unhealthy eating styles. As prevalence of depression and eating styles potentially differ across Europe, the current study aimed to investigate in a large, European sample, the associations of history of major depressive disorder and depression severity with unhealthy eating styles. Baseline data of the MooDFOOD prevention study was used. The current analysis included 990 participants of four European countries (The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain). Analyses of Covariance and linear regression analyses were performed with depression history or depression severity as determinants, and emotional, uncontrolled, and cognitive restrained eating (Three Factor Eating Questionnaire Revised, 18 item) as outcomes. Depression history and severity were associated with more emotional and uncontrolled eating and with less cognitive restrained eating. Mood, somatic, and cognitive symptom clusters were also associated with more emotional and uncontrolled eating, and with less cognitive restrained eating. The somatic depressive symptoms "increased appetite" and "increased weight" were more strongly associated to unhealthy eating styles compared to other symptoms. No differences in associations between depression and unhealthy eating were found between European countries. Our results suggest that depression is related to more unhealthy eating styles. Diminishing unhealthy eating styles in subthreshold depressed persons could potentially reduce adverse health consequences like weight gain, unhealthy dietary patterns and weight-related diseases. It is also possible that interventions that decrease depressive symptoms can lead to a decrease in unhealthy eating styles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu Wing Ho

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.

48 CFR 52.222-43 - Fair Labor Standards Act and Service Contract Act-Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... and Service Contract Act-Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). 52.222-43 Section 52... Standards Act and Service Contract Act—Price Adjustment (Multiple Year and Option Contracts). As prescribed in 22.1006(c)(1), insert the following clause: Fair Labor Standards Act and Service Contract Act...

Options of biofuel trade from Central and Eastern to Western European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van Dam, J.; Faaij, A.P.C.; Lewandowski, I.; Van Zeebroeck, B.

2009-01-01

Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) have a substantial biomass production and export potential. The objective of this study is to assess whether the market for biofuels and trade can be profitable enough to realize a supply of biofuels from the CEEC to the European market and to estimate the cost performance of the energy carriers delivered. Five NUTS-2 (Nomenclature d'Unites Territoriales Statistiques) regions with high biomass production potentials in Poland, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic were analysed for biofuel export options. From these regions pellets from willow can be provided to destination areas in Western European countries (WEC) at costs of 105.2-219.8 EUR t -1 . Ethanol can be provided at 11.95-20.89 EUR per GJ if the biomass conversion is performed at the destination areas in the WEC or at 14.84-17.83 EUR GJ -1 J if the biomass to ethanol conversion takes place (at small scale) at the CEEC region where the biomass is produced. Short sea shipping shows most cost advantages for longer distance international transport compared to inland waterway shipping and railway. Another reason for lower biofuel supply costs are shorter distances between the regions of biomass production and the destination areas. Therefore the Szczecin region in Poland, closely located to the Baltic Sea, shows a better economic performance for long distance trade of biomass production than the selected region in Hungary ('land-locked'). It is concluded that in future key CEEC regions can supply (pre-treated) biomass and biofuels to the European market at cost levels, which are sound and attractive to current and expected diesel and gasoline prices. (author)

Adaptive algorithm for solution of early exercise boundary problem of American put option implemented in Mathematica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lukáš Ladislav

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on American option pricing problem. Assuming non-dividend paying American put option leads to two disjunctive regions, a continuation one and a stopping one, which are separated by an early exercise boundary. We present variational formulation of American option problem with special attention to early exercise action effect. Next, we discuss financially motivated additive decomposition of American option price into a European option price and another part due to the extra premium required by early exercising the option contract. As the optimal exercise boundary is a free boundary, its determination is coupled with the determination of the option price. Therefore, a closed-form expression of the free boundary is not attainable in general. We discuss in detail a derivation of an asymptotic expression of the early exercise boundary. Finally, we present some numerical results of determination of free boundary based upon this approach. All computations are performed by sw Mathematica, and suitable numerical procedure is discussed in detail, as well.

Energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampton, Michael

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

Gas and electricity prices in France and in the European Union in 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong, Zheng

2015-10-01

This publication presents and comments tables and graphs of data related to natural gas prices for enterprises and for households and to their evolution between 2013 and 2014, to the electricity price for enterprises and for households and to their evolution between 2013 and 2014 in European countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Croatia, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, United Kingdom), in the euro Zone (19 countries), and in the European Union as a whole

How is perceived inflation related to actual price changes in the European Union?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonides, G.

2008-01-01

We analyze for which types of consumer expenditures the rate of price change influences consumer perception of inflation. We use both harmonized consumer price indices (HCPI) and series of perceived inflation from Eurostat in the 1996¿2006 time period for 13 European countries. After removing

Discerning a key characteristic of a European style of management: Managing the tension between integration opportunities and the constraining diversity in Europe

OpenAIRE

Boone, Peter; Bosch, Frans

1996-01-01

textabstractIn 1991, Thurley and Wirdenius claimed that international companies operating in European countries could, and should, make a strategic choice whether or not to develop a "European" approach or style of management. After the acceptance of the Treaty of Maastricht, and with the new European Union preparing to absorb applicants from the European Free Trade Association, their claim is becoming even more important. Not surprisingly, a European style of management, or "European managem...

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

2010-01-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

A numerical method to estimate the parameters of the CEV model implied by American option prices: Evidence from NYSE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Cecere, Liliana

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a method to compute the parameters of the CEV model implied by American options. • This is the first procedure for calibrating the CEV model to American option prices. • The proposed approach is extensively tested on the NYSE market. • The novel method turns out to be very efficient in computing the CEV model parameters. • The CEV model provides only a marginal improvement over the lognormal model. - Abstract: We develop a highly efficient procedure to forecast the parameters of the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model implied by American options. In particular, first of all, the American option prices predicted by the CEV model are calculated using an accurate and fast finite difference scheme. Then, the parameters of the CEV model are obtained by minimizing the distance between theoretical and empirical option prices, which yields an optimization problem that is solved using an ad-hoc numerical procedure. The proposed approach, which turns out to be very efficient from the computational standpoint, is used to test the goodness-of-fit of the CEV model in predicting the prices of American options traded on the NYSE. The results obtained reveal that the CEV model does not provide a very good agreement with real market data and yields only a marginal improvement over the more popular Black–Scholes model.

Russian natural gas exports-Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sagen, Eirik Lund; Tsygankova, Marina

2008-01-01

In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical tools to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from different Russian domestic gas prices and production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether a fully competitive European gas market may provide incentives for Gazprom, the dominant Russian gas company, to change its export behaviour. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom's market share in Europe over the next decade. In fact, Russia may struggle to carry out its current long-term export commitments if domestic prices are sufficiently low. At the same time, if Russian prices approach European net-back levels, Gazprom may reduce exports in favour of a relatively more profitable domestic market

A Positivity-Preserving Numerical Scheme for Nonlinear Option Pricing Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shengwu Zhou

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A positivity-preserving numerical method for nonlinear Black-Scholes models is developed in this paper. The numerical method is based on a nonstandard approximation of the second partial derivative. The scheme is not only unconditionally stable and positive, but also allows us to solve the discrete equation explicitly. Monotone properties are studied in order to avoid unwanted oscillations of the numerical solution. The numerical results for European put option and European butterfly spread are compared to the standard finite difference scheme. It turns out that the proposed scheme is efficient and reliable.

Price comparison of high-cost originator medicines in European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Zimmermann, Nina; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

2017-04-01

In recent years, high-cost medicines have increasingly been challenging the public health budget in all countries including high-income economies. In this context, this study aims to survey, analyze and compare prices of medicines that likely contribute to high expenditure for the public payers in high-income countries. We chose the following 16 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia, Spain and United Kingdom. The ex-factory price data of 30 medicines in these countries were collected in national databases accessible through the Pharmaceutical Price Information (PPI) service of Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (Austrian Public Health Institute). The ex-factory prices (median) per unit (e.g. per tablet, vial) ranged from 10.67 cent (levodopa + decarboxylase inhibitor) to 17,000 euro (ipilimumab). A total of 53% of the medicines surveyed had a unit ex-factory price (median) above 200 Euro. For two thirds of the medicines, price differences between the highest-priced country and lowest-priced country ranged between 25 and 100%; the remaining medicines, mainly low-priced medicines, had higher price differential, up to 251%. Medicines with unit prices of a few euros or less were medicines for the treatment of diseases in the nervous system (anti-depressants, medicines to treat Parkinson and for the management of neuropathic pain), of obstructive airway diseases and cardio-vascular medicines (lipid modifying agents). High-priced medicines were particularly cancer medicines. Medicine prices of Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and UK were frequently at the lower end, German and Swedish, as well as Danish and Irish prices at the upper end. For high-priced medicines, actual paid prices are likely to be lower due to confidential discounts and similar funding arrangements between industry and public payers. Pricing authorities refer to the higher undiscounted prices when they use

Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra Posedel

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.

Efficiency of European emissions markets: Lessons and implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar; Hoque, Ariful

2011-01-01

While prior studies have shown that emission rights and futures contracts on emission rights are efficiently priced, there are no studies on the efficiency of the options market. Therefore, this study fills the gap. We examine empirical evidence regarding the efficiency of the options market for emissions rights in Europe. We employ the put-call parity approach to test the efficiency of options on emission rights traded in the European market. This implies that firms can trade options on emission rights in addition to other existing strategies in order to manage their greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: → Efficiency of the European options market for emissions. → Design implications for the development of emissions trading schemes in other countries. → Governance issues pertaining to emissions trading.

Pharmaceutical pricing, price controls, and their effects on pharmaceutical sales and research and development expenditures in the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Ronald J

2004-08-01

Each country in the European Union (EU) currently employs direct price controls or permutations of direct price controls, such as reference pricing or limitations on returns to capital. Some countries also use volume controls. A new proposal that is being discussed would have all of the countries in the EU adopt uniform pricing for each pharmaceutical. This paper analyzes the economic effects of free-market pricing individual-country price controls, and uniform EU price controls. Microeconomic and mathematical models were used to simulate and predict probable economic outcomes in a comparative static setting. Price controls may be in the form of price ceilings or price floors. Both forms of price control generate deadweight economic losses in the short run and long run. A uniform EU price for each pharmaceutical sold there would have elements of a price ceiling in some of the countries and of a price floor in other countries. The deadweight loss incurred would be a function of the level at which the uniform price was set by the EU and the price elasticity of demand for each pharmaceutical in each country. Economic efficiency is maximized in both the short run and long run when prices are set in freely competitive markets. An additional important dimension of Ramsey pricing within a competitive context is that it generates funds for investment in pharmaceutical research and development, which enhances economic efficiency in the long run.

Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, Miquel

2009-07-01

Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

Semi-Analytical method for the pricing of barrier options in case of time-dependent parameters (with Matlab® codes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guardasoni C.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A Semi-Analytical method for pricing of Barrier Options (SABO is presented. The method is based on the foundations of Boundary Integral Methods which is recast here for the application to barrier option pricing in the Black-Scholes model with time-dependent interest rate, volatility and dividend yield. The validity of the numerical method is illustrated by several numerical examples and comparisons.

Effects of SO2 emission regulations and fuel prices on levellized energy costs for industrial steam generation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozdogan, Sibel; Arikol, Mahir

1992-01-01

We discuss the impacts of SO 2 emission regulations and fuel prices on levellized energy costs of industrial steam generation options. A computer model called INDUSTEAM has been utilized. The steam-supply options comprise conventional grate-firing, bubbling and circulating fluidized beds, fuel-oil, and natural-gas-fired systems. Fuels of different SO 2 pollution potential have been evaluated assuming six environmental scenarios and varying fuel prices. A capacity range of 10-90 MW th is covered. (author)

The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Energy priorities and options for the European Community

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Audland, C.J.

1984-01-01

The paper discusses the energy priorities and options for the European Community. Reasons for the recent improvement in the efficiency of energy use are briefly discussed, as well as the outlook for 1990, priorities for the future, solid fuels. natural gas, electricity and nuclear energy. Energy policy considerations in the United Kingdom are also mentioned. (U.K.)

The European carbon market (2005-2007): banking, pricing and risk hedging strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, J.

2008-11-01

This thesis investigates the market rules of the European carbon market (EU ETS) during 2005-2007. We provide theoretical and empirical analyses of banking and borrowing provisions, price drivers and risk hedging strategies attached to tradable quotas, which were introduced to cover the CO 2 emissions of around 10,600 installations in Europe. In Chapter 1, we outline the economic and environmental effects of banking and borrowing on tradable permits markets. More specifically, we examine the banking and borrowing provisions adopted in the EU ETS, and the effects of banning banking between Phases I and II on CO 2 price changes. We show statistically that the low levels of CO 2 prices recorded until the end of Phase I may be explained by the restriction on the inter-period transfer of allowances, besides the main explanations that were identified by market observers. In Chapter 2, we identify the carbon price drivers since the launch of the EU ETS on January 1, 2005. We emphasize the central role played by the 2005 yearly compliance event imposed by the European Commission in revealing the net short/long position at the installation level in terms of allowances allocated with respect to verified emissions. The main result of this study features that price drivers of CO 2 allowances linked to energy market prices and unanticipated weather events vary around institutional events. Moreover, we show the influence of the variation of industrial production in three sectors covered by the EU ETS on CO 2 price changes by applying a disentangling analysis, that has also been extended at the country-level. In Chapter 3, we focus on the risk hedging strategies linked to holding CO 2 allowances. By using a methodology applied on stock markets, we recover the changes in investors' average risk aversion. This study shows that, during the time period considered, risk aversion has been higher on the carbon market than on the stock market, and that the risk is linked to an increasing

A comparison of generic drug prices in seven European countries: a methodological analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G

2017-03-31

Policymakers and researchers frequently compare the prices of medicines between countries. Such comparisons often serve as barometers of how pricing and reimbursement policies are performing. The aim of this study was to examine methodological challenges to comparing generic drug prices. We calculated all commonly used price indices based on 2013 IMS Health data on sales of 3156 generic drugs in seven European countries. There were large differences in generic drug prices between countries. However, the results varied depending on the choice of index, base country, unit of volume, method of currency conversion, and therapeutic category. The results also differed depending on whether one looked at the prices charged by manufacturers or those charged by pharmacists. Price indices are a useful statistical approach for comparing drug prices across countries, but researchers and policymakers should interpret price indices with caution given their limitations. Price-index results are highly sensitive to the choice of method and sample. More research is needed to determine the drivers of price differences between countries. The data suggest that some governments should aim to reduce distribution costs for generic drugs.

Pricing and Hedging of Derivatives in Contagious Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

2016-01-01

It is well documented that stock markets are contagious. A negative shock to one market increases the probability of adverse shocks to other markets. We model this contagion effect by including mutually exciting jump processes in the dynamics of the indexes' log-returns. On top of this we add...... a stochastic volatility component to the dynamics. It is important to take the contagion effect into account if derivatives written on a basket of assets are to be priced or hedged. Due to the affine model specification the joint characteristic function of the log-returns is known analytically, and for two......-asset derivatives prices and show how for certain derivatives the impact is heavy. Moreover, we derive hedge ratios for European put and call options and perform a numerical experiment, which illustrates the impact of contagious jumps on option prices and hedge ratios. Mutually exciting processes have been analyzed...

Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deeney, Peter; Cummins, Mark; Dowling, Michael; Smeaton, Alan F.

2016-01-01

The decisions of the European Parliament (EP) are shown to influence both EU emission allowance (EUA) prices and volatility. Reductions in price and increases in volatility are observed when EP decisions are (i) not “party-political” in origin, (ii) made during times of low market sentiment, or (iii) made during times of low market attention. Daily EUA prices from 2007 to 2014 are used in the study, with decisions analysed using an event study approach for price impact, and a GARCH specification for volatility impact. Our findings suggest the need for policymakers to improve communication of long-term strategies for the EUA market. This aims to reduce the evident ongoing uncertainty experienced by traders around each decision made by the EP. The finding that sentiment and market attention at the time of an EP decision influences the market's reaction indicates a need to consider market dynamics in terms of decision timing, so that market turbulence is not an unintended by-product of an EP decision. Some form of medium term forward guidance may be called for. - Highlights: • Specific types of EP decisions lead to reduced carbon prices and increased volatility. • Decisions proposed by non-party-political groups have a significant effect. • There is a similar impact when market sentiment or news exposure is low. • Recommendation for some form of forward guidance.

Fast Fourier Transform Pricing Method for Exponential Lévy Processes

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian; Happola, Juho; Kiessling, Jonas; Tempone, Raul

2014-01-01

We describe a set of partial-integro-differential equations (PIDE) whose solutions represent the prices of european options when the underlying asset is driven by an exponential L´evy process. Exploiting the L´evy -Khintchine formula, we give a Fourier based method for solving this class of PIDEs. We present a novel L1 error bound for solving a range of PIDEs in asset pricing and use this bound to set parameters for numerical methods.

Fast Fourier Transform Pricing Method for Exponential Lévy Processes

KAUST Repository

Crocce, Fabian

2014-05-04

We describe a set of partial-integro-differential equations (PIDE) whose solutions represent the prices of european options when the underlying asset is driven by an exponential L´evy process. Exploiting the L´evy -Khintchine formula, we give a Fourier based method for solving this class of PIDEs. We present a novel L1 error bound for solving a range of PIDEs in asset pricing and use this bound to set parameters for numerical methods.

Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. II. Empirical.

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E; Liang, Cui

2007-01-01

The quantum finance pricing formulas for coupon bond options and swaptions derived by Baaquie [Phys. Rev. E 75, 016703 (2006)] are reviewed. We empirically study the swaption market and propose an efficient computational procedure for analyzing the data. Empirical results of the swaption price, volatility, and swaption correlation are compared with the predictions of quantum finance. The quantum finance model generates the market swaption price to over 90% accuracy.

Policy options to improve the effectiveness of the EU emissions trading system: A multi-criteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clò, Stefano; Battles, Susan; Zoppoli, Pietro

2013-01-01

This paper considers several policy options which have been proposed to improve the functioning of the ETS. These options require an intervention either on the ETS cap (−30% target, set-aside, carbon central bank, long-term target) or on the carbon price (European and national price floor). We analyse the impact of each policy on the ETS carbon price and emissions. A multi-criteria evaluation method is applied to compare the policy options against a plurality of environmental, economic and procedural criteria. We find that the final ranking depends on the goals to be achieved, i.e., the relative weights attributed to the criteria. When policymakers want mainly to support the carbon price both in the short and long-run, while improving ETS flexibility and harmonization, the CCB and the EU price floor are, respectively ranked as first and second-best options. As the preference for environmental and implementation goals gradually increases, the position of the EU price floor and CCB options tend to invert. The −30% target should be adopted when reducing emissions is the priority goal, while a national price floor is the worst option, in this case. Nevertheless, self-interested States looking for a relatively quick, feasible solution, may find it optimal. - Highlights: ► A multi-criteria analysis is adopted to compare policy options to improve the ETS effectiveness. ► An ETS cap reversible adjustment by a carbon central bank is the first-best option. ► The establishment of a EU-wide price floor would represent a second-best solution. ► A national price floor is the worst option but self-interest states may find it optimal. ► A post-2020 target is not a mutually exclusive option and should be set

Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

2010-03-01

Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

Strategies of development of European power producers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heddebaut, D.

2007-12-01

This economical study answers the following questions: what is the dynamics of European power markets? What is the relative competitiveness of the different power production means? What are the determining factors of electricity wholesale prices? Who are the operators the most threatened by the rise of wholesale prices? To what extend power producers are impacted by the CO 2 constrain? Who are the most efficient producers? The analysis is based on 18 of the most representative groups of the European electric utilities. The first volume of the study presents the strategic perspectives of European power producers: dynamics and basic characteristics of European power markets, strategic options of European operators, typology and financial results of European power producers, scenarios of market reorganization according to Eurostaf (possible mega-mergers in the future, competition). Volume 2 makes a detailed analysis of the positioning and perspectives of the 18 selected groups: key figures, sourcing strategies, production means management, Eurostaf's diagnosis. (J.S.)

Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sol García-Germán

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Germán, S.; Bardají, I.; Garrido, A.

2018-01-01

The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU) member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

75 FR 64753 - Options Price Reporting Authority; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-20

...-OPRA-2003-01. OPRA reorganized as a limited liability company effective as of January 1, 2010, and the current OPRA Plan is entitled ``Limited Liability Company Agreement of Options Price Reporting Authority...

Healthier fast-food options – Are consumers happy with the price they pay and the value that they receive?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melanie Gopaul

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Changes in consumer lifestyle patterns have had a great impact on the fast-food industry worldwide and the demand for heathier food has forced such a growing industry to offer more alternatives to cater for these consumers. Many fast-food outlets have introduced healthier food options to their menus. However, there seems to be a common perception among consumers that healthier food options are more expensive. The primary research aim that pended from the literature was therefore to determine South African consumers’ level of satisfaction with the price and value of the healthier food options available at fast-food outlets. The results may assist fast-food outlets in adjusting their pricing strategy and offering consumers better value for money. A mixed method approach was used to collect data whereby self-administered questionnaires comprising of closed-ended, open-ended and scaled response questions were distributed to respondents. The findings indicated a low level of satisfaction among South African consumers’ with the price and value of healthier options offered at fast-food outlet

Food-related life styles in Singapore: Testing a Western European research instrument in Southeast Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Askegaard, Søren; Brunsø, Karen; Crippen, Kaye

The food-related life style instrument developed by the MAPP research group has, up til now, been applied mainly in the context of European cultures. The purpose of the present study is to apply the food-related life style instrument in a new and very different cultural setting, to compare results......, and to interpret similarities and differences found. For this purpose, data have been collected in Singaporean families using the food-related life style instrument. A total of 89 questionnaires form the basis of the analysis. First, the cross-cultural validity of the instrument is tested, and secondly...

Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

Science.gov (United States)

Čulík, Miroslav

2010-06-01

This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

A very efficient approach for pricing barrier options on an underlying described by the mixed fractional Brownian motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Pacelli, Graziella; Radi, Davide

2016-01-01

We deal with the problem of pricing barrier options on an underlying described by the mixed fractional Brownian model. To this aim, we consider the initial-boundary value partial differential problem that yields the option price and we derive an integral representation of it in which the integrand functions must be obtained solving Volterra equations of the first kind. In addition, we develop an ad-hoc numerical procedure to solve the integral equations obtained. Numerical simulations reveal that the proposed method is extremely accurate and fast, and performs significantly better than the finite difference method.

The European used-car market at a glance: Hedonic resale price valuation in automotive leasing industry

OpenAIRE

Sylvain M. Prado

2009-01-01

In the leasing industry, the risk of loss on sales at the end of the contract term, as well as pricing are critically impacted by the forecasted resale price of the asset (residual value). We apply the Hedonic methodology to European auto lease portfolios, in order to estimate the resale price distribution. The Hedonic approach estimates the price of a good through the valuation of its attributes. Following a discussion on Hedonic prices, we propose an operational model for the automobile res...

A highly efficient Shannon wavelet inverse Fourier technique for pricing European options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

2016-01-01

htmlabstractIn the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of

A Highly Efficient Shannon Wavelet Inverse Fourier Technique for Pricing European Options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ortiz-Gracia, Luis; Oosterlee, C.W.

2016-01-01

In the search for robust, accurate, and highly efficient financial option valuation techniques, we here present the SWIFT method (Shannon wavelets inverse Fourier technique), based on Shannon wavelets. SWIFT comes with control over approximation errors made by means of sharp quantitative error

Centralized vs decentralized options for a european data relay satellite system

Science.gov (United States)

Aubert, Ph. Saint; Hervieux, M.; Perbos, J. L.; Saggese, E.; Soprano, C.

The European Data Relay Satellite (DRS) is now being planned to support future European missions in the nineties and in particular the various elements of the in-orbit infrastructure. Studies are being conducted to investigate the usefulness of the Relay System as well as to provide the basis for issuing technical specifications for a development and launch in 1993. This paper presents the results of a study issued by ESA on possible options for a DRS System, concentrating on the comparison between a centralized and a decentralized data distribution concept. After recalling the space programmes foreseen in Europe, the paper discusses the architecture and design of the various elements of the System: space segment, DRS ground segment and user ground segment for different options of data dissemination.

Centralized vs decentralized options for an European Data Relay Satellite system

Science.gov (United States)

Saint Aubert, S.; Hervieux, M.; Perbos, J. L.; Saggese, E.; Soprano, C.

1985-10-01

The European Data Relay Satellite (DRS) is now being planned to support future European missions in the nineties and in particular the various elements of the in-orbit infrastructure. Studies are being conducted to investigate the usefulness of the relay system as well as to provide the basis for issuing technical specifications for a development and launch in 1993. This paper presents the results of a study issued by ESA on possible options for a DRS System, concentrating on the comparison between a centralized and a decentralized data distribution concept. After recalling the space programs foreseen in Europe, the paper discusses the architecture and design of the various elements of the System: space segment, DRS ground segment, and user ground segment for different options of data dissemination.

Computational intelligence applications to option pricing, volatility forecasting and value at risk

CERN Document Server

Mostafa, Fahed; Chang, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

The results in this book demonstrate the power of neural networks in learning complex behavior from the underlying financial time series data . The results in this book also demonstrate how neural networks can successfully be applied to volatility modeling, option pricings, and value at risk modeling. These features allow them to be applied to market risk problems to overcome classical issues associated with statistical models. .

The Provision of Services, Interest Margins and Loan Pricing in European Banking

OpenAIRE

Lepetit , Laetitia; Nys , Emmanuelle; Rous , Philippe; Tarazi , Amine

2006-01-01

This paper assesses the implications on bank interest margins of the expansion into non- traditional fee-based activities in European banking. We use a sample of 602 European commercial and cooperative banks from 1996 to 2002 and consider the total income shares of trading income and commission and fee income as measures of product diversification to explore loan pricing. Our results show that a higher income share from commission and fee activities is associated with lower margins and lower ...

The unavoidable increase in electricity prices in France: should the effects of the European market integration be corrected?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.; Glachant, J.M.

2008-01-01

The competitive reform will unavoidably generate a price increase for French consumers when the regulated price is removed. That increase is due to the competitive hourly rate formation system in the continental market. The system allows existing nuclear equipment of all European producers to generate a rarity income, without this triggering nuclear investment decisions due to political obstacles. The sacrifice of French consumers does not imply later price decreases failing such investments. The benefit sought by the integration of the market for European consumer benefit cannot be achieved. The rarity income from existing equipment only benefits the shareholders of companies holding existing low combustible cost equipment, including the historical French operator. This article details this nuclear rarity income analysis and reviews several compensation approaches to reconcile French consumers with the construction dynamics of a competitive European market. Such re-allotment systems need to be both simple and perceived as a compensation for potential price increase, and not alter drastically the operation of the new markets. (authors)

Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market. A case-study of the 2006 compliance event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Ielpo, Florian; Mercier, Ludovic

2009-01-01

This article evaluates the impact of the 2006 compliance event on changes in investors' risk aversion on the European carbon market using the newly available option prices dataset. Thus, we aim at capturing the specific event that occurred on April 2007 as the European Commission disclosed the 2006 verified emissions data. Following the methodology existing for stock indices, we recover empirically risk aversion adjustments on the period 2006-2007 by estimating first the risk-neutral distribution from option prices and second the actual distribution from futures on the European Climate Exchange. Our results show evidence of a dramatic change in the market perception of risk around the 2006 yearly compliance event that has not been assessed yet. (author)

The effectiveness of the European agricultural quality policy: a price analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bardaji, I.; Iraizoz, B.; Rapun, M.

2009-07-01

The European rural development policy, the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy, is currently playing an increasing role. One of its key instruments is the support for quality standards through Protected Geographical Indications (PGI). The analysis presented in this article investigates prices for two varieties of beef (PGI and non- PGI). The research setting is a specific area in northern Spain, where Ternera de Navarra (Navarra beef) is produced. The results show that quality production systems achieve higher and more stable prices in the long term. Another major point emerging from the analysis, given the nature of the beef production sector, is that the PGI product is better able to stand up to consumer confidence crises, such as that triggered by the bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreak. Additional key words: prices, protected geographical indication, rural development. (Author) 40 refs.

On the Pricing of Step-Up Bonds in the European Telecom Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, David; Mortensen, Allan

This paper investigates the pricing of step-up bonds, i.e. corporatebonds with provisions stating that the coupon payments increase as thecredit rating level of the issuer declines. To assess the risk-neutral ratingtransition probabilities necessary to price these bonds, we introduce...... a newcalibration method within the reduced-form rating-based model of Jarrow,Lando, and Turnbull (1997). We also treat split ratings and adjust forrating outlook. Step-up bonds have been issued in large amounts in theEuropean telecom sector, and we find that, through most of the sample,step-up bonds issued...

Gas prices and price process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenewegen, G.G.

1992-01-01

On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

We explore the pricing of tail risk as manifest in index options across international equity markets. The risk premium associated with negative tail events displays persistent shifts, unrelated to volatility. This tail risk premium is a potent predictor of future equity returns, while option......-implied volatility only forecasts the future return variation. Hence, compensation for negative jump risk is the primary driver of the equity premium across all indices, whereas the reward for pure diffusive variance risk is largely unrelated to future equity returns. We also document pronounced commonalities...

Perpetual Cancellable American Call Option

OpenAIRE

Emmerling, Thomas J.

2010-01-01

This paper examines the valuation of a generalized American-style option known as a Game-style call option in an infinite time horizon setting. The specifications of this contract allow the writer to terminate the call option at any point in time for a fixed penalty amount paid directly to the holder. Valuation of a perpetual Game-style put option was addressed by Kyprianou (2004) in a Black-Scholes setting on a non-dividend paying asset. Here, we undertake a similar analysis for the perpetua...

Proposal for carbon prices that concord with the Paris Agreement. Mission report Pascal Canfin, Alain Grandjean, Gerard Mestrallet Commission presented to Segolene Royal, president of the COP 21

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canfin, Pascal; Grandjean, Alain; Mestrallet, Gerard; Maillet, Anais; Perissin Fabert, Baptiste; Massoni, Michel; Dambrine, Fabrice; Valerian, Francois; Faraco, Benoit; Chassagnette, Anne; Casterman, Herve; Auber, Sophie

2016-07-01

The reported mission aimed at identifying practical modalities by which a more robust than now carbon price trajectory could be guaranteed on the European carbon market, at identifying conditions and modalities of integration of a carbon component into the energy taxation of European countries for sectors not concerned by the European carbon market, and at giving proposals for the implementation of a floor price for the production of electric power at the European scale. Thus, after a summary for policy makers, and a formulation of 10 proposals, this report addresses the implementation of a price corridor on the European market: description and limits of the European carbon market, existing or projected foreign examples, analysis of possible options, envisaged corridor levels, effects on European emissions, effect on companies concerned by the EU ETS, effect on other economic actors and households, opinion of GNOs, effect on bidding revenues, position of the European Commission and Parliament, follow-up modalities, legal aspects. It discusses the role of the arrangement for a quicker phasing out of coal in France: description of the French context in terms of emissions, existing carbon tariffing systems and objectives of emission reduction, objectives of the arrangement, implementation options, environmental, economic and political effects of the uniform tax, solutions and their impacts on European policies. The last part addresses the promotion of carbon pricing in the world

Option Price Estimates for Water Quality Improvements: A Contingent Valuation Study for the Monongahela River (1985)

Science.gov (United States)

This paper presents the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the Pennsylvania portion of the Monongahela River.

House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies

OpenAIRE

Gattini, Luca; Ganoulis, Ioannis

2012-01-01

In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behaviour of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. It employs a common modelling structure based on an error correction approach and country specific models. First, co-integration among the parsimoniously specified set of fundamental variables is dete...

The Amnesiac Lookback Option: Selectively Monitored Lookback Options and Cryptocurrencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho-Chun Herbert Chang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study proposes a strategy to make the lookback option cheaper and more practical, and suggests the use of its properties to reduce risk exposure in cryptocurrency markets through blockchain enforced smart contracts and correct for informational inefficiencies surrounding prices and volatility. This paper generalizes partial, discretely-monitored lookback options that dilute premiums by selecting a subset of specified periods to determine payoff, which we call amnesiac lookback options. Prior literature on discretely-monitored lookback options considers the number of periods and assumes equidistant lookback periods in pricing partial lookback options. This study by contrast considers random sampling of lookback periods and compares resulting payoff of the call, put and spread options under floating and fixed strikes. Amnesiac lookbacks are priced with Monte Carlo simulations of Gaussian random walks under equidistant and random periods. Results are compared to analytic and binomial pricing models for the same derivatives. Simulations show diminishing marginal increases to the fair price as the number of selected periods is increased. The returns correspond to a Hill curve whose parameters are set by interest rate and volatility. We demonstrate over-pricing under equidistant monitoring assumptions with error increasing as the lookback periods decrease. An example of a direct implication for event trading is when shock is forecasted but its timing uncertain, equidistant sampling produces a lower error on the true maximum than random choice. We conclude that the instrument provides an ideal space for investors to balance their risk, and as a prime candidate to hedge extreme volatility. We discuss the application of the amnesiac lookback option and path-dependent options to cryptocurrencies and blockchain commodities in the context of smart contracts.

Future European Expendable Launcher Options and Technology Preparation

OpenAIRE

Sippel, Martin; van Foreest, Arnold; Klevanski, Josef; Gerstmann, Jens; Dutheil, Jean-Philippe; Jäger, Markus; Philip, Peter

2008-01-01

The paper describes latest results of the most recent activities in Germany in the technical assessment of future European launcher architecture. In a joint effort of DLR-SART with German launcher industry a next generation upper-medium class expendable TSTO and options for new liquid fuel upper stages for the small VEGA-launcher are addressed. The WOTAN study has investigated fully cryogenic launchers as well as those with a combination of solid and cryogenic stages, fulfilling a requirement...

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

Science.gov (United States)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

A quantum model of option pricing: When Black-Scholes meets Schrödinger and its semi-classical limit

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras, Mauricio; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo; Ruiz, Aaron

2010-12-01

The Black-Scholes equation can be interpreted from the point of view of quantum mechanics, as the imaginary time Schrödinger equation of a free particle. When deviations of this state of equilibrium are considered, as a product of some market imperfection, such as: Transaction cost, asymmetric information issues, short-term volatility, extreme discontinuities, or serial correlations; the classical non-arbitrage assumption of the Black-Scholes model is violated, implying a non-risk-free portfolio. From Haven (2002) [1] we know that an arbitrage environment is a necessary condition to embedding the Black-Scholes option pricing model in a more general quantum physics setting. The aim of this paper is to propose a new Black-Scholes-Schrödinger model based on the endogenous arbitrage option pricing formulation introduced by Contreras et al. (2010) [2]. Hence, we derive a more general quantum model of option pricing, that incorporates arbitrage as an external time dependent force, which has an associated potential related to the random dynamic of the underlying asset price. This new resultant model can be interpreted as a Schrödinger equation in imaginary time for a particle of mass 1/σ2 with a wave function in an external field force generated by the arbitrage potential. As pointed out above, this new model can be seen as a more general formulation, where the perfect market equilibrium state postulated by the Black-Scholes model represent a particular case. Finally, since the Schrödinger equation is in place, we can apply semiclassical methods, of common use in theoretical physics, to find an approximate analytical solution of the Black-Scholes equation in the presence of market imperfections, as it is the case of an arbitrage bubble. Here, as a numerical illustration of the potential of this Schrödinger equation analogy, the semiclassical approximation is performed for different arbitrage bubble forms (step, linear and parabolic) and compare with the exact

Impact of renewables deployment on the CO2 price and the CO2 emissions in the European electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van den Bergh, Kenneth; Delarue, Erik; D'haeseleer, William

2013-01-01

As of 2005, electricity generators in Europe operate under the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS). At the same time, European Member States have launched support mechanisms to stimulate the deployment of renewable electricity sources (RES-E). RES-E injections displace CO 2 emissions within the sectors operating under the EU ETS and they reduce the demand for European Union Allowances (EUAs), thereby reducing the EUA price. This paper presents the results of an ex post analysis to quantify the impact of RES-E deployment on the EUA price and CO 2 emissions in the Western and Southern European electricity sector during the period from 2007 to 2010, following from an operational partial equilibrium model of the electricity sector. This study shows that the CO 2 displacement from the electricity sector to other ETS sectors due to RES-E deployment can be up to more than 10% of historical CO 2 emissions in the electricity sector. The EUA price decrease caused by RES-E deployment turns out to be likely significant. - Author-Highlights: • We assessed the impact of renewables deployment in the period 2007–2010. • Impact on CO 2 emissions in the electricity sector and the CO 2 price is considered. • CO 2 emissions decreased by up to 10% of historical emissions. • CO 2 price decrease due to renewables turns out to be likely significant

Putting a price on carbon. Econometric essays on the European Union emissions trading scheme and its impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aatola, P.

2013-06-01

This dissertation examines the main instrument of the European Union climate policy, the emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) during its first years. Emission trading provides a cost-efficient way to reduce emissions. It creates a price on carbon dioxide and thereby incentives for cleaner production. The four empirical studies in this dissertation provide new information on the price determination in the emissions trading market, market efficiency and market interactions with the electricity markets. This information is useful for many purposes. It benefits the market participants who make choice between trading of emission allowances in the market and abatement of emissions. For the authorities and policy planners the price signal and the efficiency of the markets reveal unique real-time information on marginal abatement costs, impacts of policy decisions and impacts of institutional design of this policy instrument. To be a well-functioning policy instrument the EU ETS should create a credible price signal and efficient markets for trading allowances. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the EU ETS markets and the price of the European Union emissions allowance, EUA, with econometric time series models. A large data set on market fundamentals is used to analyze the price series. The results of this dissertation reveal that EU ETS is functions well. Carbon has a price that reflects to a large extent the market fundamentals in the study period. The markets are maturing even if not fully informational efficient yet. Interactions with electricity markets are close. The impact of price of carbon on the price of electricity is positive but spatially uneven. In the long run, also climate change affects the electricity bill. The first study of this dissertation investigates the price determination in the market. The empirical results based on years 2005-2011 show that the price of the EUA is largely determined by the market fundamentals. Especially the price of

Ethical Leadership Styles of Future Managers in Central and Eastern European Countries

OpenAIRE

Anna Remišová; Anna Lašáková

2013-01-01

There is a limited understanding what the constituent elements of the ethical leadership are. Although various researchers defined ethical leadership as a specific leadership style, with typical personality traits and behaviors, the precise instantiation of the content of ethical leadership was only seldom investigated. The body of empirical research on ethical leadership is only slowly beginning to build up. Furthermore, the ethical leadership in Central and Eastern European countries (CEE c...

Gas pricing in a liberalized European market; will the rent be taxed away?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Austvik, O.G.

1997-01-01

The European gas market will become 'more liberal'. Depending on in which segments competition is intensified and public interference takes place, prices in the gas chain will be affected. Rent may be redistributed among firms and prices will become more volatile. If supply overshoots demand for a long period, average consumer prices may also be pushed down. Rent may also end up as tax revenues for public authorities. This article argues that an active use of gas taxes as an instrument to derive public revenues increases the probability of a politically led liberalization process. The effect of these economic and political forces and actions may, however, be less new gas to the market. (author)

Pricing stock options under stochastic volatility and interest rates with efficient method of moments estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiang, George J.; Sluis, Pieter J. van der

1999-01-01

While the stochastic volatility (SV) generalization has been shown to improve the explanatory power over the Black-Scholes model, empirical implications of SV models on option pricing have not yet been adequately tested. The purpose of this paper is to first estimate a multivariate SV model using

Quantum Mechanics, Path Integrals and Option Pricing: Reducing the Complexity of Finance

OpenAIRE

Baaquie, Belal E.; Coriano, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2002-01-01

Quantum Finance represents the synthesis of the techniques of quantum theory (quantum mechanics and quantum field theory) to theoretical and applied finance. After a brief overview of the connection between these fields, we illustrate some of the methods of lattice simulations of path integrals for the pricing of options. The ideas are sketched out for simple models, such as the Black-Scholes model, where analytical and numerical results are compared. Application of the method to nonlinear sy...

Detecting instability in the volatility of carbon prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chevallier, Julien [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France)

2011-01-15

This article investigates the presence of outliers in the volatility of carbon prices. We compute three different measures of volatility for European Union Allowances, based on daily data (EGARCH model), option prices (implied volatility), and intraday data (realized volatility). Based on the methodology developed by Zeileis et al. (2003) and Zeileis (2006), we detect instability in the volatility of carbon prices based on two kinds of tests: retrospective tests (OLS-/Recursive-based CUSUM processes, F-statistics, and residual sum of squares), and forward-looking tests (by monitoring structural changes recursively or with moving estimates). We show evidence of strong shifts mainly for the EGARCH and IV models during the time period. Overall, we suggest that yearly compliance events, and growing uncertainties in post-Kyoto international agreements, may explain the instability in the volatility of carbon prices. (author)

Determinants of orphan drugs prices in France: a regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Korchagina, Daria; Millier, Aurelie; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Aballea, Samuel; Falissard, Bruno; Toumi, Mondher

2017-04-21

The introduction of the orphan drug legislation led to the increase in the number of available orphan drugs, but the access to them is often limited due to the high price. Social preferences regarding funding orphan drugs as well as the criteria taken into consideration while setting the price remain unclear. The study aimed at identifying the determinant of orphan drug prices in France using a regression analysis. All drugs with a valid orphan designation at the moment of launch for which the price was available in France were included in the analysis. The selection of covariates was based on a literature review and included drug characteristics (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) class, treatment line, age of target population), diseases characteristics (severity, prevalence, availability of alternative therapeutic options), health technology assessment (HTA) details (actual benefit (AB) and improvement in actual benefit (IAB) scores, delay between the HTA and commercialisation), and study characteristics (type of study, comparator, type of endpoint). The main data sources were European public assessment reports, HTA reports, summaries of opinion on orphan designation of the European Medicines Agency, and the French insurance database of drugs and tariffs. A generalized regression model was developed to test the association between the annual treatment cost and selected covariates. A total of 68 drugs were included. The mean annual treatment cost was €96,518. In the univariate analysis, the ATC class (p = 0.01), availability of alternative treatment options (p = 0.02) and the prevalence (p = 0.02) showed a significant correlation with the annual cost. The multivariate analysis demonstrated significant association between the annual cost and availability of alternative treatment options, ATC class, IAB score, type of comparator in the pivotal clinical trial, as well as commercialisation date and delay between the HTA and commercialisation. The

Carbon taxation reform in the European Union. The options involved

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurent, Eloi; Le Cacheux, Jacques

2011-01-01

Even though the EU clearly leads the global fight against climate change and despite the additional reduction in emissions due to the global crisis and European recession, the ambitious objectives flagged in the '20-20-20 by 2020' strategy and 'climate-energy package' may be out of reach if a more resolute and consistent policy of carbon taxation is not rapidly put in place in the EU. In this paper, we detail and discuss the different options available for such European carbon taxation. Initially published in 'Revue de l'OFCE' No. 116

Comment on “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhidong; Song, Yukun; Zhang, Yunliang

2013-05-01

The purpose of this comment is to point out the inappropriate assumption of “3αH>1” and two problems in the proof of “Theorem 3.1” in section 3 of the paper “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al. [H. Gu, J.R. Liang, Y. X. Zhang, Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs, Physica A 391 (2012) 3971-3977]. Then we show the two problems will be solved under our new assumption.

Looking beyond credit ratings : Factors investors consider In pricing European asset-backed securities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fabozzi, F.; Vink, D.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we empirically investigate what credit factors investors rely upon when pricing the spread at issue for European asset-backed securities. More specifically, we investigate how credit factors affect new issuance spreads after taking into account credit rating. We do so by investigating

Group Classification of a General Bond-Option Pricing Equation of Mathematical Finance

OpenAIRE

Motsepa, Tanki; Khalique, Chaudry Masood; Molati, Motlatsi

2014-01-01

We carry out group classification of a general bond-option pricing equation. We show that the equation admits a three-dimensional equivalence Lie algebra. We also show that some of the values of the constants which result from group classification give us well-known models in mathematics of finance such as Black-Scholes, Vasicek, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. For all such values of these arbitrary constants we obtain Lie point symmetries. Symmetry reductions are then obtained and group invariant so...

STYLE - A European project on structural integrity: Progress of the work after 2 Years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heussner, Stefan; Nicak, Tomas; Keim, Elisabeth

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present the progress of the work on the EURATOM project STYLE (Structural integrity for lifetime management - non-RPV components). The project focuses on the structural integrity assessment of reactor coolant pressure boundary components (RCPB) relevant to ageing and life time management. The 4-years project started in January 2010 and is now in its third year. Within STYLE realistic failure models for some of the key components will be identified. The range of assessment tools considered will include those for assessment of component failure by advanced fracture mechanics analyses validated on small and large scale experiments, quantification of weld residual stresses by numerical analysis and by measurements, stress corrosion crack initiation and growth effects and assessment of RCPB components (excluding the reactor pressure vessel) under dynamic and seismic loading. Based on theoretical and experimental results, performance assessment and further development of simplified engineering assessment methods (EAM) will be carried out considering both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Integrity assessment case studies and large scale demonstration experiments will be performed on Mock-ups of safety relevant components. These will include a repair weld in an aged butt-welded austenitic pipe, a dissimilar narrow gap TIG weld (following the EPR design) and a cladded ferritic pipe. Moreover, experiments on specimens and feature test pieces will be carried out to support the large scale Mock-up analyses. The end product of the project ('STYLE TOOLS') will comprise best practice guidelines on the use of advanced tools, on improvement and qualification of EAM as a part of European Leak-before-break (LBB) procedures and on life time management of the integrity of RCPB components in European nuclear power plants. The project is interacting with the European Network of Excellence NUGENIA (former NULIFE). (author)

The Black-Scholes option pricing problem in mathematical finance: generalization and extensions for a large class of stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier

1994-06-01

The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log

DECISION-MAKING STYLES OF CONSUMERS IN TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN: A CONSUMER STYLES INVENTORY APPROACH

OpenAIRE

ÖZDEMİR, Erkan; OMAROV, Zaur

2018-01-01

Consumersmake purchasing decisions based on different criteria. These criteria, whichcan be considered in many different titles such as price, quality, fashion,entertainment, also shape the purchasing decision-making styles of consumers. Consumerscan be divided into market segments according to decision-making styles. Thisstudy aims to determine the decision-making styles ofconsumers in Turkey and Azerbaijan and compare the decision-making styles ofconsumers in the two countries.The data coll...

Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...

Relationship styles of self-focused autonomy, other-focused connection, and mutuality among Mexican American and European American college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Neff, Kristin D; Brabeck, Kalina M; Kearney, Lisa K

2006-10-01

The author examined relationship styles of self-focused autonomy (SFA), other-focused connection (OFC), and mutuality among 415 European and Mexican American young adults in 2 U.S. colleges. Mutuality was the most commonly reported style for both ethnic groups, although Mexican American men were more likely than the others to indicate that they had the SFA style. Mexican American participants perceived their fathers' styles as SFA more often than did the others regarding either of their parents' styles. Mutuality was associated with the best mental-health outcomes regardless of gender or ethnicity. The present results indicate that the cultural influences on autonomy and connection are complex and that collectivistic cultural contexts may sometimes promote autonomy concerns in men.

Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

1992-07-01

We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

The health consequences of child mental health problems and parenting styles: Unintentional injuries among European schoolchildren

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keyes, K.M.; Susser, E.S.; Pilowsky, D.J.; Hamilton, A.; Bitfoi, A.; Goelitz, D.; Kuijpers, R.C.W.M.; Lesinskiene, S.; Mihova, Z.; Otten, R.; Kovess, V.

2014-01-01

Objective. Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death for schoolchildren. We assessed the association between externalizing psychopathology, parenting style, and unintentional injury in European children in the community. Methods. Data were drawn from the School Children Mental Health in

Prices and E-Cigarette Demand: Evidence From the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoklosa, Michal; Drope, Jeffrey; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

Many European Union (EU) Member States have expressed the need for EU legislation to clarify the issue of e-cigarette taxation, but the economic evidence to inform creation of such policies has been lacking. To date, only one study-on the United States only-has examined responsiveness of e-cigarette demand to price changes. We used 2011-2014 pooled time-series data on e-cigarette sales, as well as e-cigarette and cigarette prices for six EU markets (Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We utilized static and dynamic fixed-effects models to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes. In a separate model for Sweden, we examined the effects of snus prices on e-cigarette sales. Based on static models, every 10% increase in e-cigarette prices is associated with a drop in e-cigarettes sales of approximately 8.2%, while based on dynamic models, the drop is 2.7% in the short run and 11.5% in the long run. Combustible cigarette prices are positively associated with sales of e-cigarettes. Snus prices are positively associated with sales of e-cigarettes in Sweden. Our results indicate that the sales of e-cigarettes are responsive to price changes, which suggests that excise taxes can help governments to mitigate an increase in e-cigarette use. E-cigarettes and regular cigarettes are substitutes, with higher cigarette prices being associated with increased e-cigarette sales. Making combustible cigarettes more expensive compared to e-cigarettes could be effective in moving current combustible smokers to e-cigarettes, which might have positive health effects. This study is an exploratory analysis of the issues around e-cigarette taxation in Europe. Our results suggest that taxation is a measure that could potentially address the concerns of both opponents and proponents of e-cigarettes: taxes on e-cigarettes could be used to raise prices so as to deter e-cigarette initiation by never users, while concomitant greater

Which parenting style is more protective against adolescent substance use? Evidence within the European context.

Science.gov (United States)

Calafat, Amador; García, Fernando; Juan, Montse; Becoña, Elisardo; Fernández-Hermida, José Ramón

2014-05-01

This study examines whether authoritative parenting style (characterized by warmth and strictness) is more protective against adolescent substances use than authoritarian (strictness but not warmth), indulgent (warmth but not strictness) and neglectful (neither warmth nor strictness) parenting styles. Emergent research in diverse cultural contexts (mainly Southern European and Latin American countries) questions the fact that authoritative would always be the optimum parenting style. Multi-factorial MANOVAs. A sample of 7718 adolescents, 3774 males (48.9%), 11-19 year-olds (M=14.63 year-olds, SD=1.9 years) from Sweden, United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. Parenting style dimensions (warmth and strictness) and adolescent substance use (alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drugs); additionally another three adolescent outcomes were also measured (self-esteem, school performance and personal disturbances) all of them related in the literature with substance use. Both indulgent and authoritative parenting styles were associated with better outcomes than authoritarian and neglectful parenting in all the countries studied. Overall, our results support the idea that in Europe the indulgent parenting style performs as well as the authoritative one since adolescents' scores in the youth outcomes were equal (on substance use and personal disturbances) or even better (on self esteem and school performance) than for authoritative parenting style. Parenting styles relate to substance use and other outcomes in the same way in different countries explored. The so-called indulgent parenting style appears to be as good as the authoritative in protecting against substance abuse. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

2005-01-01

This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

Impact of European pharmaceutical price regulation on generic price competition: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2010-01-01

Although economic theory indicates that it should not be necessary to intervene in the generic drug market through price regulation, most EU countries intervene in this market, both by regulating the maximum sale price of generics (price cap) and by setting the maximum reimbursement rate, especially by means of reference pricing systems. We analyse current knowledge of the impact of direct price-cap regulation of generic drugs and the implementation of systems regulating the reimbursement rate, particularly through reference pricing and similar tools, on dynamic price competition between generic competitors in Europe. A literature search was carried out in the EconLit and PubMed databases, and on Google Scholar. The search included papers published in English or Spanish between January 2000 and July 2009. Inclusion criteria included that studies had to present empirical results of a quantitative nature for EU countries of the impact of price capping and/or regulation of the reimbursement rate (reference pricing or similar systems) on price dynamics, corresponding to pharmacy sales, in the generic drug market. The available evidence indicates that price-cap regulation leads to a levelling off of generic prices at a higher level than would occur in the absence of this regulation. Reference pricing systems cause an obvious and almost compulsory reduction in the consumer price of all pharmaceuticals subject to this system, to a varying degree in different countries and periods, the reduction being greater for originator-branded drugs than for generics. In several countries with a reference pricing system, it was observed that generics with a consumer price lower than the reference price do not undergo price reductions until the reference price is reduced, even when there are other lower-priced generics on the market (absence of price competition below the reference price). Beyond the price reduction forced by the price-cap and/or reference pricing regulation itself

Group Classification of a General Bond-Option Pricing Equation of Mathematical Finance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanki Motsepa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We carry out group classification of a general bond-option pricing equation. We show that the equation admits a three-dimensional equivalence Lie algebra. We also show that some of the values of the constants which result from group classification give us well-known models in mathematics of finance such as Black-Scholes, Vasicek, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross. For all such values of these arbitrary constants we obtain Lie point symmetries. Symmetry reductions are then obtained and group invariant solutions are constructed for some cases.

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

2007-07-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

2007-01-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

Valuation of wind power distributed generation by using Longstaff–Schwartz option pricing method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Díaz, Guzmán; Moreno, Blanca; Coto, José; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We analyze the economic value of wind power distributed generation (DG) projects. • Unlike NPV, RO approach accounts for the flexibility for decision-making. • We adapt Longstaff–Schwartz (LS) option pricing to multivariate wind power setting. • LS finds optimal times for DG investment under revenue uncertainty and decaying costs. • We find this method best suited for valuating DG projects of expected low revenue. - Abstract: In the context of decaying capital cost and uncertain revenues, prospective valuation of a wind power distributed generation (DG) project is difficult. The conventional net present value (NPV) presents a static picture that does not account for the value of waiting for better market conditions to proceed with a DG investment. On the contrary, real options (RO) analysis does account for the managerial flexibility to switch between options over the investment horizon. In this paper we argue that the value of a DG wind-based project can be revisited by means of Longstaff–Schwartz method, originally intended for the evaluation of American financial options. The adaption of this method to the wind power DG setting provides a means for (i) efficiently dealing with the several stochastic processes involved (spot electricity prices and possibly various wind speed processes) avoiding the curse of dimensionality, (ii) accounting for the decaying capital cost of DG, and (iii) solving the perfect foresight problem presented by Monte Carlo conventional simulations. We present in this paper the procedure to follow when applying the method to the wind power DG setting. Particularly, we discuss the standardization of the wind speed and spot price processes, and the advantages of building a state space model that includes all the correlated processes by adequately transforming Box–Jenkins and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models. Also we discuss the representation of the capital cost forecast by means of learning curves. On the whole, we

Canonical Least-Squares Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options: Convergence and Empirical Pricing Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xisheng Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper by Liu (2010 introduces a method termed the canonical least-squares Monte Carlo (CLM which combines a martingale-constrained entropy model and a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to price American options. In this paper, we first provide the convergence results of CLM and numerically examine the convergence properties. Then, the comparative analysis is empirically conducted using a large sample of the S&P 100 Index (OEX puts and IBM puts. The results on the convergence show that choosing the shifted Legendre polynomials with four regressors is more appropriate considering the pricing accuracy and the computational cost. With this choice, CLM method is empirically demonstrated to be superior to the benchmark methods of binominal tree and finite difference with historical volatilities.

Essays on Derivatives Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

. With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

1992-07-01

We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

Analysis of Performance Factors in Customer-Led Supply Chains Based on Option Pricing Optimization%逆向主导型供应链期权定价优化的绩效影响因素分析

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

赵金实; 霍佳震; 赵莹; 段永瑞

2011-01-01

在包含市场利率、现货价格波动率和期权期限三个重要期权定价影响因素的逆向主导型供应链期权协作模型基础上,通过对模型决策优化机制的分析和灵敏度分析的方法,借助Matlab软件工具,研究市场利率和现货价格波动率对期权定价和供应链绩效的影响.通过数值仿真分析,进一步计算市场利率和现货价格波动率对期权定价和供应链绩效影响的规律和临界值.获得对企业制定供应链期权契约具有指导意义的研究结论.%Companies are increasingly constructing customer-centric supply chains in order to cope with the unrelenting pressure of cost reduction. The customer-centric supply chain strategy emphasizes improvement of key factors such as market rates, volatility and option pricing terms via the coordination of supply chain partners. A review of literature on supply chain management shows that other factors,such as product production cost, product selling price and the relationship between supply chain partners, have been considered.Globalization requires that companies be more flexible and adaptive to the changes of market environment because of increased factor mobility and market access. Therefore, a company needs to consider many relevant factors, such as the cost of funds, the opportunity cost of scheduled capacity and the uncertainty risk of product price fluctuations, when constructing a customer-centric supply chain. This study proposes an option pricing optimization model to help a company manage its customer-centric supply chains. This option pricing optimization model considers the importance of market interest rates, product price volatility and option deadline. As a result,instead of managing supply chains from supplier's perspectives this model offers the possibility of managing supply chains from customer's perspectives. Our work places emphasis on the synergy of a B-S option pricing model and supply chain operation mechanisms

Tergiversating the price of nuclear waste storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, R.L.

1984-01-01

Tergiversation, the evasion of straightforward action of clearcut statement of position, was a characteristic of high-level nuclear waste disposal until the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. How the price of waste storage is administered will affect the design requirements of monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facilities as well as repositories. Those decisions, in part, are internal to the Department of Energy. From the utility's viewpoint, the options are few but clearer. Reprocessing, as performed in Europe, is not a perfect substitute for MRS. The European reprocess-repository sequence will not yield the same nuclear resource base as the American MRS-repository scheme. For the future price of the energy resource represented by nuclear waste, the author notes that tergiversation continues. 3 references

Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

2001-01-01

Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

The Impact of the Prior Density on a Minimum Relative Entropy Density: A Case Study with SPX Option Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cassio Neri

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We study the problem of finding probability densities that match given European call option prices. To allow prior information about such a density to be taken into account, we generalise the algorithm presented in Neri and Schneider (Appl. Math. Finance 2013 to find the maximum entropy density of an asset price to the relative entropy case. This is applied to study the impact of the choice of prior density in two market scenarios. In the first scenario, call option prices are prescribed at only a small number of strikes, and we see that the choice of prior, or indeed its omission, yields notably different densities. The second scenario is given by CBOE option price data for S&P500 index options at a large number of strikes. Prior information is now considered to be given by calibrated Heston, Schöbel–Zhu or Variance Gamma models. We find that the resulting digital option prices are essentially the same as those given by the (non-relative Buchen–Kelly density itself. In other words, in a sufficiently liquid market, the influence of the prior density seems to vanish almost completely. Finally, we study variance swaps and derive a simple formula relating the fair variance swap rate to entropy. Then we show, again, that the prior loses its influence on the fair variance swap rate as the number of strikes increases.

Study of Agricultural Product Options Pricing

Science.gov (United States)

HONG, Qiu

2017-09-01

China is a large agricultural country, and the healthy development of agriculture is related to the stability of the whole society. The agricultural production and management of agricultural products are confronted with many risks, especially the market risks. Option contract is the object of option market transaction, so it is very important to study the option contract of agricultural products. Option trading separates the risk and profit, so that the trader can avoid the risk while retaining the opportunity to obtain income. The option has the characteristics of low transaction cost, simple and efficient, so it is suitable for small and medium investors.

Dynamique jointe stock/option et application aux stratégies de trading sur options

OpenAIRE

El Aoud , Sofiene

2015-01-01

This thesis explores theoretically and empirically the implications of the stock/option joint dynamics on applications related to option trading. In the first part of the thesis, we look into the relations between stock options and index options under the risk-neutral measure. The Capital Asset Pricing Model offers an adequate mathematical framework for this study as it provides a modeling approach for the joint dynamics between the stock and the index. As we compute option prices according t...

Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huisman, Ronald; Kiliç, Mehtap

2015-01-01

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production. - Highlights: • We analyse the time-variation of the emission pass-through rate in power prices. • We examine historical futures prices for Germany and the U.K. • We test the hypothesis by using the Kalman Filter methodology. • Strong support is found that pass-through rates vary over time. • The chosen time-frame for pass-through rates is important for policy evaluation.

Options to address concerns regarding EU ETS induced increases in power prices and generators' profits. The case of carbon cost pass-through in Germany and the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sijm, J.P.M.; Hers, J.S.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

2008-02-01

Power prices in EU countries have increased significantly since the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) became effective on 1 January 2005. This suggests that these increases in power prices are due to this scheme, in particular the pass-through of the costs of EU allowances (EUAs) to cover the CO2 emissions of eligible installations. In all sectors, however - including the power sector - eligible installations have usually received almost all of their needed allowances for free during the first phase of the EU ETS (2005-07). In several EU countries, the coincidence of the increases in power prices and the implementation of the EU ETS has raised questions, and sometimes fierce political debate, on whether power producers have indeed passed through the costs of freely allocated CO2 allowances to electricity prices, and to what extent the increase in these prices can be attributed to this pass-through or to other factors. In addition, it has raised discussions on whether - and to what extent - the supposed passing through of these costs has led to additional profits for power producers, that is, the so-called 'windfall profits' induced by the EU ETS. Finally, the supposed ETSinduced increases in power prices and generators' profits has raised concerns affecting the legitimacy of the present EU ETS, including concerns regarding its impact on the international competitiveness of some powerintensive industries, the purchasing power of electricity end-users such as small households or, more generally, the distribution of social welfare among power producers and consumers. As a result, in several countries policy makers and stakeholders have suggested a variety of options to address these concerns, including changing the emissions trading allocation system, taxing windfall profits or controlling market prices of EU carbon allowances, electricity or both. Against this background, the objectives of this chapter include: (a) To analyse empirically the trends in power

48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...

Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloster, Kristian

2003-01-01

sudden changes. Forward pricing in this market may not be as precise as in other markets , which explains the instability of some results. My main result is that my model works for short-term contracts, but my risk parameter is not stable enough to make good estimates for long-term contracts. In chapter 8 I derived an option price for both European and American options. The problem with incompleteness, which arises when valuing energy-options on the spot price, is not a problem for these options. The forward contract is in itself storable, and therefore the market is complete for these options. Another reason why my model should work is that the cash flow of the forward contract takes place at the contracts maturity date. The result is that the option is always worth more than the forward contract, and the exercised option is worth the same as the forward contract. Note that this is not the case for futures. (Author)

Adjusting the CO2 cap to subsidised RES generation: Can CO2 prices be decoupled from renewable policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richstein, Jörn C.; Chappin, Émile J.L.; Vries, Laurens J. de

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Strong renewable policy can cause price drops in an emission trading system (ETS). • Cap reduction based on exceedance of original policy goals could prevent price drops. • Dynamic cap reduction makes renewable policy climate effective in an ETS. • Dynamic cap reduction is not useful for reaching carbon price or volatility goals. • Dynamic cap reduction could undo the “green promotes the dirtiest” effect. - Abstract: The low prices in the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) have triggered discussions of various possible reforms. One option is to decouple the CO 2 prices from renewable energy policy by adjusting the emission cap to renewable energy investment overshoots. We introduce two ways of reducing the CO 2 cap in response to overshoots of renewable policy investment over previously announced targets. We investigate these options with the agent-based model EMLab-generation. We find that both policy implementations are successful in restoring prices. They also ensure that making public investments that exceed policy targets contribute to carbon emission reduction, and that renewable policy does not benefit the most emission-intensive power plants. However, neither policy is suitable for achieving specifc levels of prices or price volatility

THE VOLATILITY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRICING OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

OpenAIRE

Benth, Fred Espen; Saltyte-Benth, Jurate

2005-01-01

We propose an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with seasonal volatility to model the time dynamics of daily average temperatures. The model is fitted to almost 43 years of daily observations recorded in Stockholm, one of the European cities for which there is a trade in weather futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Explicit pricing dynamics for futures contracts written on the number of heating/cooling degree-days (so-called HDD/CDD-futures) and the cumulative average daily ...

Price formation and intertemporal arbitrage within a low-liquidity framework. Empirical evidence from European natural gas markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nick, Sebastian

2013-08-15

In this study, the informational efficiency of the European natural gas market is analyzed by empirically investigating price formation and arbitrage efficiency between spot and futures markets. Econometric approaches are specified that explicitly account for nonlinearities and the low liquidity framework of the considered gas hubs. The empirical results reveal that price discovery takes place on the futures market, while the spot price subsequently follows the futures market price. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence of significant market frictions hampering intertemporal arbitrage. UK's NBP seems to be the hub at which arbitrage opportunities are exhausted most efficiently, although there is convergence in the degree of intertemporal arbitrage efficiency over time at the hubs investigated.

Discerning a key characteristic of a European style of management : Managing the tension between integration opportunities and the constraining diversity in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.F. Boone (Peter); F.A.J. van den Bosch (Frans)

1996-01-01

textabstractIn 1991, Thurley and Wirdenius claimed that international companies operating in European countries could, and should, make a strategic choice whether or not to develop a "European" approach or style of management. After the acceptance of the Treaty of Maastricht, and with the new

Evolution of the European gas market on the long term. Organisation and price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouvry, V.

1998-01-01

The objective of this work is to shed light upon the future organization of the European gas market with an emphasis on price matters. There are nowadays few producers of gas on the market, most of whom hold long-term contracts with gas companies. Gas pricing is based on the net-back principle. The actual debate on liberalization of the gas market and the growing pressure from industrial customers to obtain lower prices addresses the problem of the future organisation of the market and the potential impact of the introduction of third party access. We first analyse the main actors of the gas market, their strategy and the actual market organization market. Two different logics are considered hereunder: a market approach: the competition theory provides efficient tools to analyse the evolution of competition depending on numerous factors. It appears that the strategy of all actors and particularly of producers will be the main determinant of the future competition. The oligopoly theory includes oligopolistic behaviours modelizations. The application of the Cournot's model leads to prices ranging from 1,6 to 3,7 $/MBtu; a contractual approach: today, gas is essentially exchanged through long term contracts, which allow for long-term management of investments and supply security. Two operators negotiate the price, which ultimately mirrors their respective leverage. The transaction cost theory clearly shows the necessity of including transaction costs, especially when optimizing the duration of the contract. The gas prices escalation is nowadays partially obsolete and unadapted to customer needs. Escalation on coal, electricity price or inflation should soon be considered. The theories of negotiation highlight the importance of the operators' marketing power during gas price fixation Applying Nash and Harsanyi-Selten's negotiation models results in a scale of 2,4 to 3,5 $/MBtu of the gas price at the actual supply and demand conditions. Both approaches lead to similar

Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

OpenAIRE

Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

Options theory and strategic investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mann, D.; Goobie, G.; MacMillan, L.

1992-01-01

The possible use of options pricing theory for evaluating long-term capital investments is discussed. Using the Black and Scholes option pricing model, five variables were evaluated for a hypothetical oil sands project. These variables are: stock price as determined by the earning power of the company; exercise price which equals the investment cost of the project; price standard deviation which is assumed to be 50%; the length of time for which the company will maintain its option to invest in the project, and finally the risk free rate which is approximately equal to the yield in long term government securities. A sensitivity analysis on these variables can provide management with information on how best to influence the option value. A more in-depth analysis could provide valuable information about strategic choice for large projects. 5 refs., 3 figs

Bayesian Forecasting of Options Prices: A Natural Framework for Pooling Historical and Implied Volatiltiy Information

OpenAIRE

Darsinos, T.; Satchell, S.E.

2001-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are naturally oriented towards pooling in a rigorous way information from separate sources. It has been suggested that both historical and implied volatilities convey information about future volatility. However, typically in the literature implied and return volatility series are fed separately into models to provide rival forecasts of volatility or options prices. We develop a formal Bayesian framework where we can merge the backward looking information as r...

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

2005-08-01

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

2016-01-01

Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

Federal and European Union Policy Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dosenrode, Søren

By using the policy cycle approach, this paper compares the policy-process in a number of Anglo-Saxon type federations with the policy-process in continental-European style federations from within the European Union (EU) area.  The comparison would reveal: a) distinct different styles of policy...... making in European style federations in relation with the Anglo-Saxon ones. b) that the policy-process in the EU resembles that of the European style federations, and c) the Constitutional Treaty (CT) or a possible CT-light would strengthen the federal policy-making characteristics already present...

Important characteristics and constitutional law basis of the optional instrument for European contract law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvija Petrić

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is dedicated to the analysis of the optional instrument for European contract law as one of the measures which the European Commission suggests within the framework of the initiative of European contract law. It is about the system of general rules of contract law and particular rules for those contracts which are the most important for the functioning of a unified European market. The paper analyses the reasons for suggesting such measures, the basic characteristics and purpose, possible ways of application, potential content and structure, its relation to other Acts and measures of community law, and, in particular, the possible constitutional law basis for the bringing in of such an act of Community law.

Foodservice yield and fabrication times for beef as influenced by purchasing options and merchandising styles.

Science.gov (United States)

Weatherly, B H; Griffin, D B; Johnson, H K; Walter, J P; De La Zerda, M J; Tipton, N C; Savell, J W

2001-12-01

Selected beef subprimals were obtained from fabrication lines of three foodservice purveyors to assist in the development of a software support program for the beef foodservice industry. Subprimals were fabricated into bone-in or boneless foodservice ready-to-cook portion-sized cuts and associated components by professional meat cutters. Each subprimal was cut to generate mean foodservice cutting yields and labor requirements, which were calculated from observed weights (kilograms) and processing times (seconds). Once fabrication was completed, data were analyzed to determine means and standard errors of percentage yields and processing times for each subprimal. Subprimals cut to only one end point were evaluated for mean foodservice yields and processing times, but no comparisons were made within subprimal. However, those traditionally cut into various end points were additionally compared by cutting style. Subprimals cut by a single cutting style included rib, roast-ready; ribeye roll, lip-on, bone-in; brisket, deckle-off, boneless; top (inside) round; and bottom sirloin butt, flap, boneless. Subprimals cut into multiple end points or styles included ribeye, lip-on; top sirloin, cap; tenderloin butt, defatted; shortloin, short-cut; strip loin, boneless; top sirloin butt, boneless; and tenderloin, full, side muscle on, defatted. Mean yields of portion cuts, and mean fabrication times required to manufacture these cuts differed (P < 0.05) by cutting specification of the final product. In general, as the target portion size of fabricated steaks decreased, the mean number of steaks derived from any given subprimal cut increased, causing total foodservice yield to decrease and total processing time to increase. Therefore, an inverse relationship tended to exist between processing times and foodservice yields. With a method of accurately evaluating various beef purchase options, such as traditional commodity subprimals, closely trimmed subprimals, and pre-cut portion

The information content of options

OpenAIRE

Navon, Yonatan

2017-01-01

The objective of this thesis is to examine the information content of stock options in financial markets. A key question in financial economics is how information diffuses across markets and how quickly it is reflected in security prices. This thesis aims at exploring this question by investigating the informational role that options play in financial markets. This is achieved by exploring the joint cross section of option and bond prices, the informational role of options in seasoned equity ...

Comparing pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in Croatia to the European Union Member States.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Habl, Claudia; Bogut, Martina; Voncina, Luka

2011-04-15

To perform a comparative analysis of the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Croatia and the 27 European Union (EU) Member States. Knowledge about the pharmaceutical systems in Croatia and the 27 EU Member States was acquired by literature review and primary research with stakeholders. Pharmaceutical prices are controlled at all levels in Croatia, which is also the case in 21 EU Member States. Like many EU countries, Croatia also applies external price referencing, i.e., compares prices with other countries. While the wholesale remuneration by a statutorily regulated linear mark-up is applied in Croatia and in several EU countries, the pharmacy compensation for dispensing reimbursable medicines in the form of a flat rate service fee in Croatia is rare among EU countries, which usually apply a linear or regressive pharmacy mark-up scheme. Like in most EU countries, the Croatian Social Insurance reimburses specific medicines at 100%, whereas patients are charged co-payments for other reimbursable medicines. Criteria for reimbursement include the medicine's importance from the public health perspective, its therapeutic value, and relative effectiveness. In Croatia and in many EU Member States, reimbursement is based on a reference price system. The Croatian pharmaceutical system is similar to those in the EU Member States. Key policies, like external price referencing and reference price systems, which have increasingly been introduced in EU countries are also applied in Croatia and serve the same purpose: to ensure access to medicines while containing public pharmaceutical expenditure.

Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

2017-12-01

In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

Lifestyles and Styles of Parental Care Related to Childhood Obesity Compare Spain with Northern European Countries: ENERGY-Project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miqueleiz, Estrella; te Velde, Saskia; Regidor, Enrique; van Lippevelde, Wendy; Vik, Froydis N.; Fernández-Alvira, Juan Miguel; Vicente-Rodríguez, Germán; Kunst, Anton

2015-01-01

Background: The prevalence of childhood obesity is higher in Spain than in Northern European countries for reasons that are still unknown. The objective was to determine whether variables related to lifestyle habits and styles of parental care related to obesity in children differ between the

Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

We survey the recent academic literature that uses option-implied information to construct equity portfolios. Studies show that equity managers can earn a positive alpha by using information in individual equity options, by using stocks' exposure to information in market index options, and by using...... stocks' exposure to crude oil option information. Option-implied information can also help construct better mean-variance portfolios and better estimates of market beta....

A discrete-time two-factor model for pricing bonds and interest rate derivatives under random volatility

OpenAIRE

Heston, Steven L.; Nandi, Saikat

1999-01-01

This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curv...

Relations among Ethnic Identity, Parenting Style, and Adolescent Psychosocial Outcomes in European American and East Indian Immigrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhadha, Bakhtawar

The challenges of identity formation are particularly difficult for minority youth because of the clash of traditional culture and the host culture. This study examined the effects of parenting style, acculturation, and parent and adolescent ethnic identity on the self-esteem and school performance of East Indian and European American adolescents.…

Gas price policies in Central and Eastern Europe. Papers and proceedings of the Seminar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The seminar on the topic of gas pricing and its future supply to Central and Eastern European countries was organised by the United Nations Gas Centre, part of the Economic Commission for Europe, and sponsored by the Slovenian gas company Geoplin, the N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie and ABN-AMRO Bank. The purpose was to analyse natural gas pricing as the major prerequisite for further integration of the Eastern, Central and Western European gas markets. Almost 150 representatives of gas industries and government officials of 36 different countries presented and discussed their experiences, know-how and visions on the themes of gas pricing and, in relation to these, future supply options. A total of 19 Central and Eastern European countries were represented, 11 western European countries and two from other parts of the world. The large number of participating countries and the high level of participants present witnessed the general acceptance of the importance of sharing views and information as a step towards further integration of the European gas industry. Establishment of commercial price structures and policies was identified as a main concern of Central and Eastern European countries. At present, in many cases in economies in transition the current end user prices are not sufficient to cover import European border prices. Once introduced, the commercial prices will facilitate a country's diversification, which is not only important for diminishing dependency on one supplier, but its also important for the growth of the European market as a whole. Countries that can rely on a diversified supply will allow themselves to have a larger share of gas in their primary energy supply and will be able to support necessary investment. Future market growth in the European gas market as a whole is of great importance for reducing Europe's environmental burden. Experience over the past 20 years in the western European gas industry demonstrated that the market integration is based

Forecasting with Option-Implied Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young

2013-01-01

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function...... of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....

Attachment Styles of Dermatological Patients in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Szabó, Csanád; Altmayer, Anita; Lien, Lars

2017-01-01

Attachment styles of dermatological outpatients and satisfaction with their dermatologists were investigated within the framework of a multicentre study conducted in 13 European countries, organized by the European Society for Dermatology and Psychiatry. Attachment style was assessed with the Adult......, and experienced similar rates of anxiety in relationships as did the controls. Participants who had secure attachment styles reported stressful life events during the last 6 months significantly less often than those who had insecure attachment styles. Patients with secure attachment styles tended to be more...... satisfied with their dermatologist than did insecure patients. These results suggest that secure attachment of dermatological outpatients may be a protective factor in the management of stress....

European mobility cultures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haustein, Sonja; Nielsen, Thomas A. Sick

2016-01-01

More targeted European policies promoting green travel patterns require better knowledge on differing mobility cultures across European regions. As a basis for this, we clustered the EU population into eight mobility styles based on Eurobarometer data. The mobility styles - including, for example...... positions on the path towards sustainable mobility and therefore different requirements towards European platforms and support measures, e.g. for 'Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans'. The country clusters can provide a starting point for future communication and targeting of European efforts in sustainable...

Comparing pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies in Croatia to the European Union Member States

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Sabine; Habl, Claudia; Bogut, Martina; Vončina, Luka

2011-01-01

Aim To perform a comparative analysis of the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Croatia and the 27 European Union (EU) Member States. Methods Knowledge about the pharmaceutical systems in Croatia and the 27 EU Member States was acquired by literature review and primary research with stakeholders. Results Pharmaceutical prices are controlled at all levels in Croatia, which is also the case in 21 EU Member States. Like many EU countries, Croatia also applies external price referencing, ie, compares prices with other countries. While the wholesale remuneration by a statutorily regulated linear mark-up is applied in Croatia and in several EU countries, the pharmacy compensation for dispensing reimbursable medicines in the form of a flat rate service fee in Croatia is rare among EU countries, which usually apply a linear or regressive pharmacy mark-up scheme. Like in most EU countries, the Croatian Social Insurance reimburses specific medicines at 100%, whereas patients are charged co-payments for other reimbursable medicines. Criteria for reimbursement include the medicine’s importance from the public health perspective, its therapeutic value, and relative effectiveness. In Croatia and in many EU Member States, reimbursement is based on a reference price system. Conclusion The Croatian pharmaceutical system is similar to those in the EU Member States. Key policies, like external price referencing and reference price systems, which have increasingly been introduced in EU countries are also applied in Croatia and serve the same purpose: to ensure access to medicines while containing public pharmaceutical expenditure. PMID:21495202

A Study of the Determinants of Emissions Unit Allowance Price in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Maydybura

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In 2005 the European Union (EU began the first phase of the largest and most ambitious emissions trading system (EU ETS ever attempted, which then applied to all members of the EU. In its second phase whichbegan in 2008 the EU ETS now applies to all 27 members of the EU together with Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein, the members of the European Economic Area (EEA which are not members of the Union. Inthe first phase of the EU ETS permits to emit carbon into the atmosphere known as European Union Allowances (EUA were traded in a market where the price rose to €30 and eventually fell to well below 10 Euro cents as the imperfections of the market became obvious. In the second phase which began in 2008 the price has fluctuated between €30 and €8. EUA are traded in a manner which is similar to the trading of financial instruments and a range of derivatives has developed with the total value of the market now above €120b, a growing market dominated by a few large players.This paper reports some results of an empirical investigation into the factors which appear to drive the carbon price and the key determinants of the price of an EUA. Over the last decade a number of environmental products have been developed alongside the EUA, including Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs, Renewable Energy Certificates and White Certificates (energy efficiency credits and markets have developed for a range of these environmental products. A better understanding of the determinants of these markets willhelp regulators manage these new markets and this paper aims to enhance our knowledge of the market.

New options for purchasing electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-10-01

This guide is intended for small to medium commercial customers in Alberta and explains new options for purchasing electricity. Small to medium customers include corner stores, community centres, schools, small office buildings, and light industrial businesses. In the 1990s, private power producers in Alberta built 3,000 megawatts of new generation, adding 30 per cent more supply to the power grid in the province. Prices in the deregulated electricity market have fluctuated with natural gas prices, changing weather and changing power demands. The competitive electricity market was opened on January 1, 2001 in Alberta, offering consumers purchasing choices such as green power, multi-year contracts, or electricity rates under the Regulated Rate Option (RRO). The RRO was a transition mechanism that will end by December 31, 2003 at which time, small to medium commercial customers will have the option to shop around for competitive electricity contracts that provide a fixed price of power over time, or they can opt to stay with their current supplier and receive a regulated flow-through of market prices. Under the flow-through option, risk of future deferral charges is reduced, but electricity prices will probably change between billing periods. 1 fig

Heterogeneous Beliefs, Public Information, and Option Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Zhenjiang

In an incomplete market setting with heterogeneous prior beliefs, I show that public information and strike price of option have substantial infl‡uence on asset pricing in option markets, by investigating an absolute option pricing model with negative exponential utility investors and normally...... distributed dividend. I demonstrate that heterogeneous prior variances give rise to the economic value of option markets. Investors speculate in option market and public information improves allocational efficiency of markets only when there is heterogeneity in prior variance. Heterogeneity in mean is neither...... a necessary nor sufficient condition for generating speculations in option markets. With heterogeneous beliefs, options are non-redundant assets which can facilitate side-betting and enable investors to take advantage of the disagreements and the differences in con…dence. This fact leads to a higher growth...

卖空约束下金融市场欧式期权定价研究%Pricing European Options in a Financial Market with Short-sale Constraints

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

黎露

2012-01-01

摘 要:针对存在卖空约束金融市场上的期权定价问题,总结了3种定价方法,并在讨论超复制方法的基础上计算出无套利区间和唯一平价.重点分析了在超复制方法的模型中考虑参数股息率g(t),得出了无套利区间端点的更加有效的表述形式.%Aiming at the option pricing method in a financial market with short - sale constraints,three most important methods in this area were summarized. And especially based on the super - replicating method, the arbitrage - free interval and the u-nique fair price were figured out. Furthermore,the new parameter - dividend rate g(t) in the model was investigated and a more effective representation was obtained for the endpoints of the arbitrage - free interval.

Price-Matching leads to the Cournot Outcome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batsaikhan, Mongoljin; Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

Bertrand competition that the market price in the presence of a price-matching option ranges from the monopolistic price to the Bertrand price. Our result suggests that the effect of price-matching depends on whether the output is a choice variable for the firms.......We study the effects of price-matching in a duopoly setting in which each firm selects both its price and output, simultaneously. We show that the availability of a pricematching option leads to the Cournot outcome in this setting. This result is a stark contrast to the one obtained in the standard...

Modelling Callable Annuity Bonds with Interest-Only Optionality

OpenAIRE

Holst, Anders; Nalholm, Morten

2004-01-01

In this paper an investigation of the pricing of callable annuities with interest-only (I-O) optionality is conducted. First the I-O optionality feature of callable annuities is introduced. Next an algorithm for pricing callable annuities with I-O optionality using the finite difference methodology, is formulated. This is then used to investigate optimal strategies of I-O bonds and impacts on prices from the I-O optionality. It is found that the I-O feature necessitates a simul...

Demand-side management pricing options in electric utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sardana, P.; Herman, P.

1990-01-01

In 1989 Ontario Hydro implemented optional time-of-use (TOU) rates at the wholesale level for all municipal utilities in the province. At the same time, mandatory TOU rates were implemented for large users (customers with loads in excess of 5 MW) served by municipal utilities and Ontario Hydro's direct customers. To fully explore the potential of rate structures as demand-side management (DSM) tools, Ontario Hydro retained a consulting firm to carry out a survey of innovative rate structures in other jurisdications. The survey was intended to identify: the status quo of rate structures in other jurisdictions that were designed specifically to encourage DSM; a profile of the cost basis of the rate structures, for example whether traditional embedded cost of service analyses or contentious methods such as marginal cost pricing were used; whether innovative rates have been successful, and customer reactions and attitudes; and how innovative rates fit into the overall strategy of the utilities. It was found that TOU, interruptible and end-use targeted rates are the rate structures of choice for many utilities. Most are concerned with deferring capacity, reducing peak demand, and shifting load out of peak periods. Most utilities report success with their programs and satisfaction with the present form of the programs. 5 tabs

INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS TO EFFICIENT POLICY INTERVENTION IN THE EUROPEAN PORT SECTOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barry UBBELS

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the growing role of private involvement in recent port developments, most maritime trade is still largely handled in ports where investments, pricing and other managerial decisions are, to a varying extent, dependent, or at least influenced by public bodies. This paper shows that the extent and type of public intervention differs considerably between ports in the Hamburg-Le Havre range. The wide variety in ownership, financing and management of ports throughout Europe indicates that there is no level playing field at present. Because ports operate in an increasingly competitive environment (intensified by globalisation trends and the completion of the internal market, this may lead to situations of unfair competition. The European Union emphasises the importance of a more harmonised approach of port regulation by national governments (in terms of financing and pricing of infrastructure. Given the differences in (national port management styles and the low levels of transparency, the creation of a level playing field in the European port industry seems far away. This suggests the presence of a major institutional difference in European transport policy that hampers efficient policy intervention.