The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, Roy

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected form raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors

The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, R.

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected from raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors.(author)

Frequent price changes under menu costs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Per Svejstrup

1999-01-01

, the price may be changed more frequent in the short run, and in the long run it definitely will. Hence, observing frequent price changes is not necessarily inconsistent with a firm operating under menu costs. This paper relies on an article by Dixit (1991), (Review of Economic studies, 58, 141......This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on a single firm's pricing behaviour in a dynamic menu cost model that results in (S,s)-rules where the price is fixed inside a band. It will be demonstrated that even though the band of inaction widens in response to increased uncertainty...

76 FR 77271 - Competitive Product Postal Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-12

... POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. CP2012-2; Order No. 997] Competitive Product Postal Price... recently-filed Postal Service request for a change in competitive products prices. The changes will take... and justification for the changes, the effective date, and a schedule of the changed rates. The price...

75 FR 166 - Postal Product Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-04

... POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. CP2009-49; Order No. 371] Postal Product Price Changes...-filed Postal Service request to change prices for a Global Plus 2 contract. This notice provides an...: On December 21, 2009, the Postal Service filed a notice that prices for the Global Plus 2 contract at...

Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajan, Sudhir Chella

2006-01-01

Time is fast running out for formulating a viable global climate policy regime even as it seems obvious that the major initiative will have to come from the United States, which currently appears indisposed to take any meaningful action at all. This paper reviews the prospects for emissions reductions in the US passenger transport sector and the technical, economic, social, and political barriers to developing policies that focus solely on technology or pricing. Using scenarios it shows that, in order to meet stringent emissions targets over the coming half-century, technology and pricing policies may have to be supplemented by strategies to change life-styles and land uses in ways that effectively reduce car dependence. In the medium to long term, bold initiatives that treat vehicle users as citizens capable of shifting their interests and behaviour could form kernels of social change that in turn provide opportunities for removing many of the social and political constraints

Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

2010-01-01

Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

Pricing policy for declining demand using item preservation technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Khedlekar, Uttam Kumar; Shukla, Diwakar; Namdeo, Anubhav

2016-01-01

We have designed an inventory model for seasonal products in which deterioration can be controlled by item preservation technology investment. Demand for the product is considered price sensitive and decreases linearly. This study has shown that the profit is a concave function of optimal selling price, replenishment time and preservation cost parameter. We simultaneously determined the optimal selling price of the product, the replenishment cycle and the cost of item preservation technology. Additionally, this study has shown that there exists an optimal selling price and optimal preservation investment to maximize the profit for every business set-up. Finally, the model is illustrated by numerical examples and sensitive analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters.

Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkemik, K. Ali

2011-01-01

Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.

Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

2016-01-01

Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

Science.gov (United States)

Rogacheva, Yana; Panenkov, Andrey; Petrikova, Zinaida; Nezhnikova, Ekaterina

2018-03-01

Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogacheva Yana

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

An EKC-pattern in historical perspective. Carbon dioxide emissions, technology, fuel prices and growth in Sweden 1870-1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindmark, Magnus

2002-01-01

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s. This article examines the inverted-U trajectory of Swedish CO 2 emissions during an extended time period beginning in 1870. The basis for the investigation is a structural time series approach that utilizes a stochastic trend as an indicator of technological and structural change, and GDP growth and changes in the price of fuel and cement price as independent variables. Finally, the development of technological and structural change with respect to CO 2 emissions is interpreted within the context of growth regimes. The result suggests that the period 1920-1960, with high, sustained growth rates was associated with less technological and structural changes relating to CO 2 emissions than periods with lower growth rates, such as the late 1800s and the post-1970 period. Furthermore, it is suggested that time-specific technological clusters may affect EKC patterns

An EKC-pattern in historical perspective. Carbon dioxide emissions, technology, fuel prices and growth in Sweden 1870-1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindmark, Magnus [Department of Economic History, Umea University, SE-901 87 Umea (Sweden)

2002-08-01

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been subject to research and debate since the early 1990s. This article examines the inverted-U trajectory of Swedish CO{sub 2} emissions during an extended time period beginning in 1870. The basis for the investigation is a structural time series approach that utilizes a stochastic trend as an indicator of technological and structural change, and GDP growth and changes in the price of fuel and cement price as independent variables. Finally, the development of technological and structural change with respect to CO{sub 2} emissions is interpreted within the context of growth regimes. The result suggests that the period 1920-1960, with high, sustained growth rates was associated with less technological and structural changes relating to CO{sub 2} emissions than periods with lower growth rates, such as the late 1800s and the post-1970 period. Furthermore, it is suggested that time-specific technological clusters may affect EKC patterns.

A Taxonomy of Information Technology-Enhanced Pricing Strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dixit, A.; Whipple, T.W.; Zinkhan, G.M.; Gailey, E.

2008-01-01

As a result of evolving technology, opportunities for innovative pricing strategies continuously emerge. The authors provide an updated taxonomy to show how such emerging strategies relate to recent technological advances. Specifically, they cite increased availability of information, enhanced

Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

2011-01-01

textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market

76 FR 7114 - International Mail: Mailing Services Price Change

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-09

... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mail: Mailing Services Price Change AGENCY: Postal... States Postal Service, International Mail Manual (IMM[supreg]) for Mailing Services. This price change correlates to the Postal Service's January 13, 2011 filing of Docket No. R2011-2, Notice of Price Adjustment...

Changes of uranium market price and trend in recent years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xingwu; Chen Zuyi

2008-01-01

The market price (especially the spot price ) of uranium has experienced significant changes since 2004. Several stages of uranium price are summed up. It is the slow increase period of uranium price from 1991 to 2004, The uranium price rapid rise from 2005 to 2007. The price of uranium jumped sharply from the fourth quarter 2006 to first half of 2007. The price of uranium rapid declined and tended to be stable from second half 2007 to this day. Characteristics, reason and change trend of uranium price in these stages are summarized. (authors)

Lessons from patents. Using patents to measure technological change in environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popp, David

2005-01-01

When studying solutions to long-term environmental problems such as climate change, it is important to consider the role that technological change may play. Nonetheless, to date few economic models of environmental policy explicitly model the link between policy and technological change. There is a growing body of evidence that the incentives offered by prices and environmental regulations have a strong influence on both the creation and adoption of new technologies. In several recent papers, I have used patent data to examine the links between environmental policy and technological change. In addition, I have used the results of this research to calibrate the ENTICE model (for ENdogenous Technological change) of climate change, which links energy-related R and D to changes in the price of carbon. Drawing on my experiences from empirical studies on innovation and from modeling the climate change problem, in this paper I review some of the key lessons from recent empirical work using patents to study environmental innovation and diffusion, and discuss its implications for modeling climate change policy. I conclude by offering suggestions for future research

Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosse, Henrik Barslund

Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

78 FR 69755 - International Product and Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-21

... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Product and Price Changes AGENCY: Postal Service TM... Service, International Mail Manual (IMM[supreg]), to reflect the prices, product features, and...-0372. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: New prices are available under Docket Number CP2014-5 on the Postal...

76 FR 75786 - International Product and Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-05

... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Product and Price Changes AGENCY: Postal Service TM... Service, International Mail Manual (IMM[supreg]), to reflect the prices, product features, and.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: New prices are available under Docket Number CP2012-2 on the Postal Regulatory...

How Do Drug Prices Respond to a Change from External to Internal Reference Pricing?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.

(where they are based on the cheapest domestic substitute). We analyze three therapeutic classes with different treatment durations and show that the reform led to substantial price decreases for our lifelong treatment and to less substantial price reductions for our medium duration treatment while we do......We study the effects of a change in the way patient reimbursements are calculated on the prices of pharmaceuticals using quasi-experimental data for Denmark which switched from external (where reimbursements are based on prices of similar products in foreign countries) to internal reference pricing...

The Effects of Changing Input Costs on Food Prices

OpenAIRE

R. McFall Lamm; Paul C. Westcott

1981-01-01

The relationships between changes in food sector input costs and retail food prices are examined. Results indicate that increases in factor prices pass quickly to consumers, within two quarters for most foods. In addition, rising farm-level prices and substantial increases in nonfarm resource prices appear to explain why food prices rose more rapidly than nonfood prices in the 1970s. The analysis is based on a twenty-equation econometric model of the food-price determination process, specifie...

78 FR 63433 - International Mailing Services: Proposed Price Changes-CPI

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-24

... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mailing Services: Proposed Price Changes--CPI AGENCY... mailing services price adjustments with the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC), effective on January 26... Postal Service, International Mail Manual (IMM[supreg]) to reflect these new price changes. DATES: We...

48 CFR 52.243-1 - Changes-Fixed-Price.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Changes-Fixed-Price. 52....243-1 Changes—Fixed-Price. As prescribed in 43.205(e), insert the following clause: Changes—Fixed-Price (AUG 1987) (a) The Contracting Officer may at any time, by written order, and without notice to...

Designing an agricultural vegetative waste-management system under uncertain prices of treatment-technology output products.

Science.gov (United States)

Broitman, D; Raviv, O; Ayalon, O; Kan, I

2018-05-01

Setting up a sustainable agricultural vegetative waste-management system is a challenging investment task, particularly when markets for output products of waste-treatment technologies are not well established. We conduct an economic analysis of possible investments in treatment technologies of agricultural vegetative waste, while accounting for fluctuating output prices. Under a risk-neutral approach, we find the range of output-product prices within which each considered technology becomes most profitable, using average final prices as the exclusive factor. Under a risk-averse perspective, we rank the treatment technologies based on their computed certainty-equivalent profits as functions of the coefficient of variation of the technologies' output prices. We find the ranking of treatment technologies based on average prices to be robust to output-price fluctuations provided that the coefficient of variation of the output prices is below about 0.4, that is, approximately twice as high as that of well-established recycled-material markets such as glass, paper and plastic. We discuss some policy implications that arise from our analysis regarding vegetative waste management and its associated risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FAS 33: accurately recording effects of changing prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Sage, L G

1987-02-01

FAS 33 addresses the problem of distortion in conventional historical cost financial statements because of changing prices. It requires 1300 business enterprises to report selected changing price data on a supplementary basis. It has been demonstrated that it is also feasible and beneficial for hospitals to present price disclosures as supplementary information to their financial statements. The possible application of FAS 33 is supported on the basis that the accounting and reporting methods of healthcare institutions are similar to the accounting and reporting practices of profit-seeking entities.

Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-03-01

This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they're rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears

Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

2013-07-01

This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

When should green technology support policies supplement the carbon price? The case of the electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecuyer, Oskar

2013-01-01

This thesis contributes to the literature on optimal policy choice. It studies the use of policy combinations to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions from electricity production. One finding applies to cases where uncertainty is such that the risk of a nil carbon price cannot be excluded. A cap on emissions alone may then not trigger enough abatements, justifying the addition of e.g. a renewable subsidy. When considering a transition toward a carbon free electricity sector, capital accumulation causes complex dynamic effects to happen. We find that decisions taken by comparing the leveled costs of abatement technologies, even including carbon costs, would favor intermediate technologies (e.g. gas plants) to the detriment of more-expensive but lower-carbon technologies (renewable power), leading to a suboptimal investment schedule. This thesis also studies the effects of marginal policy changes in a mix comprising the main French instruments. We find that surprisingly, adding a tariff for renewables financed by a tax on electricity consumption to a cap on emissions and a subsidy for energy efficiency will reduce the consumer electricity price when the non-renewable production is fixed and does not depend on the carbon price. The assessment of the French climate policies in the electricity sector shows that overlapping policies for mitigation may be justified by multiple carbon price failures, even if the ideal long-term policy mix depends on the carbon price trajectory. (author)

ARE PRICING POLICIES EFFECTIVE TO CHANGE CAR USE?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geertje SCHUITEMA

2007-01-01

Results revealed that under pricing policies most people did not intend to change their car use. Pricing policies were relatively more effective when prices increased significantly. Especially visiting and shopping trips were affected, while commuting trips were hardly affected. Moreover, respondents were most likely to reduce their car use for short trips, which are an important source of CO2 emissions and local air pollution.

Price effects of changing quantities supplied at the integrated european fish market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Max; Smit, Jos; Guillen, Jordi

2012-01-01

to be −1.1. This implies that price flexibilities previously estimated for single European countries underestimate price changes at the European level caused by quantity changes. Results indicate that changing quantities can increase revenues from individual species with large own-price flexibilities...

Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan

OpenAIRE

Hirose, Yasuo; Kurozumi, Takushi

2011-01-01

The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods to consumption goods in Japan suggests the existence of investment-specific technological (IST) changes. We examine whether IST changes are a major source of business fluctuations in Japan, by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian methods. We show that IST changes are less important than neutral technological changes in explaining output fluctuations. We also demonstrate that investment fluctuatio...

Option Pricing with Time-changed Lévy Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klingler, Sven; Kim, Young Shin; Rachev, Svetlozar T.

2013-01-01

In this article, we introduce two new six-parameter processes based on time-changing tempered stable distributions and develop an option pricing model based on these processes. This model provides a good fit to observed option prices. To demonstrate the advantages of the new processes, we conduct...

The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to Import Prices

OpenAIRE

Ketelsen, Uwe; Kortelainen, Mika

1996-01-01

In this paper we analyze the empirical relevance of exchange rate pass-through for Finland, Sweden and Denmark during the period 1980–1994. Further, we attempt to determine if there has been a structural change in the pass-through relationship in the1990s. We find that about half the changes in exchange rates and world prices are passed through to import prices within one year, and three-quarters of such changes are passed through to import prices in two years. Moreover, there are no major di...

Two Propositions on the Application of Point Elasticities to Finite Price Changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Daskin, Alan J.

1992-01-01

Considers counterintuitive propositions about using point elasticities to estimate quantity changes in response to price changes. Suggests that elasticity increases with price along a linear demand curve, but falling quantity demand offsets it. Argues that point elasticity with finite percentage change in price only approximates percentage change…

Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.

Science.gov (United States)

Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

1999-02-01

The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics.

Does renewable energies’ usage act as a shield against oil price changes?

OpenAIRE

Cardoso, Duarte Cortez dos Santos Vaz

2014-01-01

The purpose of this dissertation is to contribute to the existing literature on equity markets and energy prices by studying the impact of oil price changes on several American and European companies, taking into consideration their level of renewable energies’ usage within the total energy consumption. The results show that in fact there is an overall negative impact of oil price changes. However, when we split the oil price changes in positive and negative ones, it seems that their impact i...

Analysis of soybean supply to price changes in the domestic market ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study showed that farmers' responses were not encouraging in the production and supply of soybean in the domestic markets with respect to the dictate of prices, price expectations and price of groundnut as a chosen competitive enterprise. Keywords: Response, soybean supply, price changes, soybean market, ...

IS THE PRICE RIGHT? PRICING FOR LONG TERM PROFITABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Erika NYÁRÁDI

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The way how we choose our pricing strategy has a significant impact on company’s success. Nowadays companies more and more adopt a new way of thinking in pricing, namely pricing for a long term period in order to bring higher profitability, to build an efficient pricing strategy. Marketers have only recently begun to focus seriously on effective pricing. These companies are the so called progressive companies. They have begun doing more than just worrying about pricing. To increase profitability many are abandoning traditional reactive pricing procedures in favor of proactive pricing, making explicit corporate decisions to change their focus to growth in top-line sales to growth in profitability. The long-term implications of price strategies are still under-researched, and managers should be aware of shifts in customer reactions that may result from frequent adoption of certain strategies. The company pricing strategy should be seen in relation to developments in the company variables, internal ones (capital strength, competencies, organizational conditions, efficiency of the work force etc. as well as external ones (customers, competitors, the technological development etc., adopting strategic pricing. In this paper I will present the most effective pricing strategies leading to long term profitability, and also suggest practical conditions for pricing strategies to maximize profit in the long run.

Monopolistic pricing power for transgenic crops when technology adopters face irreversible benefits and costs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weaver, R.D.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2004-01-01

Pricing of biotechnology innovation under a patent grant is reconsidered in a model with uncertain returns and irreversible costs and benefits. Past results oil restricted monopoly pricing in the presence of competing technologies showed that pricing power is reduced. The timing of adoption of an

Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann, Kira

This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

An energy pricing scheme for the diffusion of decentralized renewable technology investment in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiam, Djiby Racine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate price support for market penetration of renewable energy in developing nations through a decentralized supply process. We integrate the new decentralized energy support: renewable premium tariff, to analyze impacts of tariff incentives on the diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. Based on photovoltaic and wind technologies and an assessment of renewable energy resources in Senegal, an optimization technique is combined with a cash flow analysis to investigate investment decisions in renewable energy sector. Our findings indicate that this support mechanism could strengthen the sustainable deployment of renewable energy in remote areas of Senegal. Although different payoffs emerged, profits associated with a renewable premium tariff are the highest among the set of existing payoffs. Moreover in analyzing impacts of price incentives on social welfare, we show that price tariffing schemes must be strategically scrutinized in order to minimize welfare loss associated with price incentives. Finally we argue that a sustainable promotion of incentive mechanisms supporting deployment of renewable technology in developing nations should be carried out under reliable institutional structures. The additional advantage of the proposed methodology is its ability to integrate different stakeholders (producers, investors and consumers) in the planning process. - Highlights: → We simulate impacts of price support for market penetration of renewable technology in developing nations. → An array of price incentive mechanisms strengthens diffusion of renewable technology in Senegal. → Moreover, reliable institutional frameworks in developing nations are a requirement in order to strengthen diffusion path of renewable technologies.

Pricing electricity for sustainability : climate change and Canada's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The electricity sector is Canada's largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discussed electricity and carbon pricing approaches to reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sector. An overview of the links between electricity pricing and climate change was presented, and current and emerging trends in electricity pricing related to encouraging energy conservation were reviewed. Market prices and failures were discussed. Approaches to pricing electricity included an increase in block prices; time-of-use prices; demand-side management and energy efficiency; and carbon pricing in Canada and electricity pricing signals. The study showed that several provincial utilities in Canada are experimenting with market-based pricing approaches for electricity and carbon that may help to reduce GHG emissions over time. Concerns over electricity supply and the negative environmental impacts of electricity production may lead to the full social pricing of electricity in some regions of Canada. 46 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

Energy prices, technological knowledge and green energy innovation. A dynamic panel analysis of patent counts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruse, Juergen; Wetzel, Heike; Koeln Univ.

2014-01-01

We examine the effect of energy prices and technological knowledge on innovation in green energy technologies. In doing so, we consider both demand-pull effects, which induce innovative activity by increasing the expected value of innovations, and technology-push effects, which drive innovative activity by extending the technological capability of an economy. Our analysis is conducted using patent data from the European Patent Office on a panel of 26 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009. Utilizing a dynamic count data model for panel data, we analyze 11 distinct green energy technologies. Our results indicate that the existing knowledge stock is a significant driver of green energy innovation for all technologies. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy prices have a positive impact on innovation for some but not all technologies and that the e.ect of energy prices and technological knowledge on green energy innovation becomes more pronounced after the Kyoto protocol agreement in 1997.

Is there an asymmetry in the response of diesel and petrol prices to crude oil price changes? Evidence from New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Ming-Hua; Margaritis, Dimitris; Tourani-Rad, Alireza

2010-01-01

This paper examines how pre-tax petrol and diesel prices in New Zealand respond to changes in crude oil prices using an asymmetric error correction model. Our results show that oil companies adjust diesel prices upwards faster than they adjust them downwards, and the difference is statistically significant. However we find no statistical evidence for an asymmetry in the adjustment of petrol prices even though the magnitude of estimated coefficients suggests a faster response to rising prices. As diesel pricing is not as competitive as petrol pricing, calls for further government actions and monitoring of the oil market may be justified. Our findings also have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy as the pass-through of crude oil price changes can affect cost-push inflation. (author)

Environmental policy and technological change: The effects of economic incentives and direct regulation on energy-saving innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Newell, Richard G., Jr.

Over the long run, the impacts of environmental policies will be greatly affected by the influence these policies have on the rate and direction of technological change. In particular, the roles played by energy prices and product regulation in energy-saving technology innovation are exceptionally important considerations in modeling climate change and evaluating alternative policy options. We analyze the effects of energy prices and energy-efficiency regulations on the menu of air conditioner and water heater models available on the market over a period of more than three decades, measuring their innovation in terms of improvements in the products' underlying characteristics. Through estimation of a series of "characteristics transformation surfaces," we find that during less than four decades, substantial innovation in these products reduced the total capital and operating costs of air conditioning by one-half and water heating by more than one-fifth. Although the overall rate of innovation in these products appears to be independent of energy prices and regulations, the evidence suggests that the direction of innovation may be responsive to energy price changes. This would imply that energy price increases induced innovation in a direction that lowered the capital cost tradeoffs inherent in producing more energy-efficient products. The evidence supporting "regulation-induced" changes in these tradeoffs is much weaker. Our estimates indicate that about one- to two-fifths of the energy-efficiency improvements in these products from 1973 to 1993 were associated with historical changes in energy prices. We also find that this responsiveness to price changes increased substantially after product labeling requirements came into effect, and that minimum efficiency standards had a significant positive effect on average efficiency levels. Nonetheless, a sizeable portion of historical efficiency improvements in these technologies is associated with the products' overall

Purchasing medical innovation the right technology, for the right patient, at the right price

CERN Document Server

Robinson, James C

2015-01-01

Innovation in medical technology generates a remarkable supply of new drugs, devices, and diagnostics that improve health, reduce risks, and extend life. But these technologies are too often used on the wrong patient, in the wrong setting, or at an unaffordable price. The only way to moderate the growth in health care costs without undermining the dynamic of medical innovation is to improve the process of assessing, pricing, prescribing, and using new technologies. Purchasing Medical Innovation analyzes the contemporary revolution in the purchasing of health care technology, with a focus on th

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Economic Activities in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rina Juliet Artami

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression (VAR model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product (GDP is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. It is crucial for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, mainly as its primary source of revenue, and also consider utilizing more sources of renewable energy. At the same time, the effects of both the positive and negative changes in oil prices are found to be not statistically significant to inflation. The lack of impact of oil price changes on inflation can explain by the implementation of the fuel price subsidy in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6052

75 FR 39475 - International Mail: Proposed Changes in Prices and Fees

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-09

... Fee International Reply Coupons International Business Reply Service Registered Mail TM Return Receipt....3a to change the price to $2.20.] * * * * * 382 International Business Reply Service * * * * * 382.4... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mail: Proposed Changes in Prices and Fees AGENCY...

Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

Science.gov (United States)

Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

2009-01-01

The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelsen, Laura; Green, Rosemary; Turner, Rachel; Dangour, Alan D; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

2015-12-01

Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: reference pricing versus health technology assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Drummond, Michael; Jönsson, Bengt; Rutten, Frans; Stargardt, Tom

2011-06-01

Reference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market access and cost. Four countries were studied: Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. These countries have operated one, or both, of the two policies at certain points in time, sometimes in parallel. Drugs in four groups were considered: cholesterol-lowering agents, insulin analogues, biologic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis and "atypical" drugs for schizophrenia. Compared with HTA, reference pricing is a relatively blunt instrument for obtaining value for money from pharmaceuticals. Thus, its role in making reimbursement decisions should be limited to drugs which are therapeutically equivalent. HTA is a superior strategy for obtaining value for money because it addresses not only price but also the appropriate indications for the use of the drug and the relation between additional value and additional costs. However, given the relatively higher costs of conducting HTAs, the most efficient approach might be a combination of both policies.

Electricity to natural gas competition under customer-side technological change: a marginal cost pricing analysis; Cambiamento tecnologico a valle del contatore e concorrenza fra elettricita' e gas naturale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gulli' , Francesco [Bocconi Univ., Milan (Italy). Iefe

2004-07-01

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of technological change (on the customer side of the meter) on the network energy industry (electricity and natural gas). The performances of the small gas fired power technologies and the electrical reversible heat pumps have improved remarkably over the last ten years, making possible (or more viable) two opposite technological trajectories: the fully gas-based system, based on the use of small CHP (combined heat and power generation) plants, which would involve a wide decentralisation of energy supply; the fully electric-based system, based on the use of reversible electric heat pumps, which would imply increasing centralisation of energy supply. The analysis described in this paper attempts to evaluate how these two kinds of technological solutions can impact on inter-service competition when input prices are ste equals to marginal costs of supply in each stage of the electricity and natural gas industries. For this purpose, unbundled prices over time and over space are simulated. In particular the paper shows that unbundling prices over space in not very important in affecting electricity to natural gas competition and that, when prices are set equal to long-run marginal costs, the fully electric-based solution (the reversible heat pump) is by far preferable to the fully gas-based solution (the CHP gas fired small power plant). In consequence, the first best outcome of the technological change would involve increasing large power generation and imported (from the utility grid) electricity consumption. Given this framework, we have to ask ourselves why operators, regulators and legislators are so optimistic about the development of the fully gas-based solutions. In this respect, the paper suggests that market distortions (such as market power, energy taxation and inefficient pricing regulation) might have give an ambiguous representation of the optimal technological trajectory, inducing to overestimate the social value

The Medicaid Rebate: Changes in Oncology Drug Prices After the Affordable Care Act.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonakdar Tehrani, Ali; Carroll, Norman V

2017-08-01

Prescription drug spending is a significant component of Medicaid total expenditures. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) includes a provision that increases the Medicaid rebate for both brand-name and generic drugs. This study examines the extent to which oncology drug prices changed after the increase in the Medicaid rebate in 2010. A pre-post study design was used to evaluate the correlation between the Medicaid rebate increase and oncology drug prices after 2010 using 2006-2013 State Drug Utilization Data. The results show that the average annual price of top-selling cancer drugs in 2006, adjusted for inflation and secular changes in drug prices, have increased by US$154 and US$235 for branded and competitive brand drugs, respectively, following the 2010 ACA; however, generic oncology drug prices showed no significant changes. The findings from this study indicate that oncology drug prices have increased after the 2010 ACA, and suggest that pharmaceutical companies may have increased their drug prices to offset increases in Medicaid rebates.

Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis-an application to oil prices in the transport sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Thomas C., E-mail: tcj@transport.dtu.d [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

2010-01-15

This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn.

Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Thomas C. [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moeller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

2010-01-15

This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen, Thomas C.; Moeller, Flemming

2010-01-01

This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING MARGIN LEVELS ON FUTURES OPTIONS PRICE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yanling GU; Juan LI

2006-01-01

The paper studies the effects of changing margin levels on the price of futures options and how to organize a market maker's position. Black model (1976) becomes a special case of this paper.The paper prices futures options by duplicating them and adopting the theory of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short). Furthermore, the price of a futures option is the unique solution to a nonlinear BSDE.

Price trends and project viability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsen, W.H.

1999-01-01

The paper discusses some of the remarkable changes that have occurred in the oil and gas industry over about the past 25 years. In the past ten years alone, technology and politics have brought new ways of working together and the recovery of resources once thought of as impossible. Cooperation appears to be a key word. The paper was presented under the sub-headings of the environment, global energy outlook, technological drivers and the challenge ahead. The current low price of oil will inevitably slow down exploration and field development but the author remains optimistic despite the tough challenges. The paper contains many diagrams relating to production, costs, efficiency, exploration, reserves, price forecasts and exploration technology

Essays in energy, environment and technological change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yichen Christy

This dissertation studies technological change in the context of energy and environmental economics. Technology plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Chapter 1 estimates a structural model of the car industry that allows for endogenous product characteristics to investigate how gasoline taxes, R&D subsidies and competition affect fuel efficiency and vehicle prices in the medium-run, both through car-makers' decisions to adopt technologies and through their investments in knowledge capital. I use technology adoption and automotive patents data for 1986-2006 to estimate this model. I show that 92% of fuel efficiency improvements between 1986 and 2006 were driven by technology adoption, while the role of knowledge capital is largely to reduce the marginal production costs of fuel-efficient cars. A counterfactual predicts that an additional 1/gallon gasoline tax in 2006 would have increased the technology adoption rate, and raised average fuel efficiency by 0.47 miles/gallon, twice the annual fuel efficiency improvement in 2003-2006. An R&D subsidy that would reduce the marginal cost of knowledge capital by 25% in 2006 would have raised investment in knowledge capital. This subsidy would have raised fuel efficiency only by 0.06 miles/gallon in 2006, but would have increased variable profits by 2.3 billion over all firms that year. Passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in the United States will require substantial improvements in new vehicle fuel economy over the next decade. Economic theory suggests that vehicle manufacturers adopt greater fuel-saving technologies for vehicles with larger market size. Chapter 2 documents a strong connection between market size, measured by sales, and technology adoption. Using variation consumer demographics and purchasing pattern to account for the endogeneity of market size, we find that a 10 percent increase in market size raises vehicle fuel efficiency by 0.3 percent, as compared

Decomposing productivity growth allowing efficiency gains and price-induced technical progress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Silva, E.; Stefanou, S.

2000-01-01

Time- and firm-specific output technical efficiency measures are generated within a price-induced technological change framework. The firm-specific production frontier incorporates past prices as an argument encouraging innovation and a time trend to account for exogenous technical change. The

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milani, Fabio [Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

2009-11-15

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, Fabio

2009-01-01

This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

Political Economy and Irrigation Technology Adoption Implications of Water Pricing under Asymmetric Information

OpenAIRE

Dridi, Chokri; Khanna, Madhu

2005-01-01

We analyze the design of water pricing rules emerging from farmers' lobbying and their implications for the size of the lobby, water use, profits and social welfare. The lobbying groups are the adopters of modern irrigation technology and the non-adopters. The pricing rules are designed to meet budget balance of water provision; we considered (i) a two-part tariff composed of a mandatory per-acre fee plus a volumetric charge and (ii) a nonlinear pricing schedule. Our results show that under e...

Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, David

2002-01-01

Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…

Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Sydny Fujita, K.

2009-01-01

Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

Relationship between efficiency and predictability in stock price change

Science.gov (United States)

Eom, Cheoljun; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

2008-09-01

In this study, we evaluate the relationship between efficiency and predictability in the stock market. The efficiency, which is the issue addressed by the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, is calculated using the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn). The predictability corresponds to the hit-rate; this is the rate of consistency between the direction of the actual price change and that of the predicted price change, as calculated via the nearest neighbor prediction method. We determine that the Hurst exponent and the ApEn value are negatively correlated. However, predictability is positively correlated with the Hurst exponent.

Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jude C. Dike

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and South America, the EU, the Middle East, and North America. Results show that there is a positive relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity, and a 1% change in carbon intensity is expected to cause about 1.6% change in crude oil prices in the short run and 8.4% change in crude oil prices in the long run while the speed of adjustment is 19%.

Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

2014-01-01

change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes......, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show...... that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains...

The Shift of the Demand for Air Transport Services when Prices Change

OpenAIRE

Dan Pauna

2011-01-01

The decrease of the charge/unit price determines the extension of demand, as well as the increaseof the amount of a product/service required on the market. The relationship between the evolution ofcharge/unit price (the independent variable) and the market demand of a good/service (the dependentvariable) can be illustrated in a table, a function or a graph. The causal relationships between the change ofthe charge/unit price of a good/service and the change of the amount required represent the...

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

Science.gov (United States)

Hamacher, K.

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis-an application to oil prices in the transport sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Thomas Christian; Møller, Flemming

2010-01-01

in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport...

Induced innovation, energy prices, and the environment

Science.gov (United States)

Popp, David Clifford

The process of developing new technologies is a central question for economic theory as well as for public policy in many areas. For example, the development of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies will play an important role in reducing the threat of global warming. To study how technology evolves over time, this dissertation uses patent data on energy innovations from 1970 to 1991 to examine the impact of energy prices on energy-efficient innovations. Before this can be done, however, information on supply-side factors which influence innovation is also needed. In the case of innovation, supply-side factors are the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge. Patent citations are used for this purpose. Subsequent citations to patents granted each year since 1970 are used to show that the returns to research and development (R&D) fall over time for most of the technologies studied. These estimates are then combined with data on demand-side factors, such as energy prices, to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies. Both energy prices and the supply of knowledge are found to have strongly significant positive effects on innovation. Next, the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC), which maps patents to the industries in which they are used, is employed to construct a stock of energy-related knowledge for 14 energy intensive industries. The effect of changes in this stock on energy consumption in these industries is estimated. On average, the present value of energy savings resulting from a new patent is eight million dollars, with the maximum savings coming about five years after the initial patent application. Finally, the results of each regression are combined to simulate the impact of a ten percent energy tax. Initially, simple factor substitution due to the price change has the largest effect. However, because of the cumulative nature of R&D, induced innovation has a much larger effect than factor substitution in the long run

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Economic Activities in Indonesia

OpenAIRE

Rina Juliet Artami; Yonosuke Hara

2018-01-01

This paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression (VAR) model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product (GDP) is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. It is crucial for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, mainly as its prim...

The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evren Ceritoğlu

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relationship between house prices and household consumption in Turkey. We utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT Household Budget Surveys (HBS from 2003 to 2014. We construct a pseudo-panel data set using birth-year cohorts following Deaton (1985. We find that house price changes have a positive and significant effect on the growth of cohort consumption. Moreover, the effect of house price changes is stronger for home-owners and it intensifies as we move from young cohorts to old cohorts. We observe that there is a marginally significant and relatively weak relationship between the growth of cohort consumption and house price changes for tenants. However, our pooled sample set is restricted to young and middle-aged cohorts for tenants. In addition, we find that the rise of home-ownership ratio increases the growth of cohort consumption, while the spread of having outstanding housing debt depresses the growth of cohort consumption. Therefore, our empirical findings are in favor of the wealth channel argument.

77 FR 65279 - Domestic Competitive Products Pricing and Mailing Standards Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-26

... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 111 Domestic Competitive Products Pricing and Mailing Standards Changes... and mailing standards for the following competitive products: Express Mail[supreg], Priority Mail.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This final rule describes new prices and product features for competitive products...

Experimental research on the relation between food price changes and food-purchasing patterns: a targeted review.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Leonard H; Jankowiak, Noelle; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Raynor, Hollie A; French, Simone A; Finkelstein, Eric

2012-04-01

One way in which to modify food purchases is to change prices through tax policy, subsidy policy, or both. We reviewed the growing body of experimental research conducted in the laboratory and in the field that investigates the following: the extent to which price changes influence purchases of targeted and nontargeted foods, total energy, or macronutrients purchased; the interaction of price changes with adjunctive interventions; and moderators of sensitivity to price changes. After a brief overview of economic principles and observational research that addresses these issues, we present a targeted review of experimental research. Experimental research suggests that price changes modify purchases of targeted foods, but research on the overall nutritional quality of purchases is mixed because of substitution effects. There is mixed support for combining price changes with adjunctive interventions, and there are no replicated findings on moderators to price sensitivity in experiments. Additional focused research is needed to better inform food policy development with the aim of improving eating behavior and preventing obesity.

Western Canada : changing pricing dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, B.

1998-01-01

Natural gas supply and demand trends in Western Canada are reviewed in a series of overhead viewgraphs. Production versus pipeline capacity, required gas well completions in the WCSB to meet local demand and fill export pipeline capacity to year 2005, NYMEX and AECO price trends during 1995-2000, and the question of what will happen to prices with additional pipeline capacity to the U.S. Midwest were summarized. The best guess is that Midwest prices will need to be high enough to attract marginal supplies from the Gulf, i.e. prices have be around the Henry Hub + five cents/ mmbtu. The new Canadian pipelines, (Northern Border and Alliance) will lower Midwest prices somewhat, but the impact will be modest. Assuming that additional planned pipeline expansion come on-stream, the pressure to expand east of Chicago will be considerable. tabs., figs

Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Hui; Liang, Jin-Rong; Zhang, Yun-Xiu

2012-08-01

This paper deals with the problem of discrete time option pricing by a fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. The price of the underlying stock follows a time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion. By a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument, the pricing formula for the European call option in discrete time setting is obtained.

Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-04-01

This brochure is designed to help consumers understand how gasoline is priced and explained why prices increase, fluctuate and vary by location, city or region. The price of a litre of gasoline reflects the costs of crude oil, refining, retailing and taxes. Taxes are usually the largest single component of gasoline prices, averaging 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude oil makes up another 35 to 45 per cent of the price. Refining costs make up 10 to 15 per cent while the remaining 5 to 10 per cent represents retail costs. Gasoline retailers make a profit of about 1 cent per litre. The latest network technology allows national and regional retail chains to constantly monitor price fluctuations to change their prices at gasoline stations at a moments notice to keep up with the competition and to protect their market shares. Several government studies, plus the Conference Board of Canada, have reported that competition is working in favour of Canadian motorists. This brochure also explained the drawbacks of regulating crude and pump prices with the reminder that crude prices were regulated in the 1970s with many negative consequences. 2 tabs., 1 fig

Electrical markets, energy security and technology diversification: nuclear as cover against gas and carbon price risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.A.; Newbery, D.M.; Nuttall, W.J.; Neufville, R. de

2005-01-01

Recent tension in the oil and gas markets has brought back the concept of energy offer diversification. Electrical production technology diversification in a country helps improve the security of supply and make up for the negative effects of hydrocarbons price variations. The portfolio and real options theories help to quantify the optimum diversification level for a country or a power company. The cover value of a nuclear investment for a power company facing cost uncertainties (price of gas and of carbon dioxide emission permit) and proceeds (price of electricity) is assessed. A strong link between the prices of gas and electricity reduces incentives to private producers to diversify, disputing the capacity of a liberalized electrical market to achieve optimum technology diversity from a domestic point of view. (authors)

U.S. E and P surge hinges on technology, not oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Technology, not oil and gas prices, have fueled the recent surge in US activity, leading to greater sustainability, according to Clarance P. Cazalot Jr., vice-president of Texaco Inc. and president of Texaco Exploration and Production Inc. Cazalot expects gas and oil prices to decrease slightly to within the historical range of $18--21/bbl for oil and $1.50--2.00/Mcf for gas for the next few years. Cazalot said the most critical factors affecting the future of US exploration and production activities are technology and personnel. Technology is driving the current industry boom in the Us and is the basis for Texaco's projected US production growth. Perhaps industry's greatest challenge is attracting, developing, and retaining skilled people at all levels, said Cazalot. People shortages result in increased competition for personnel with critical skills, high employee turnover rates, and increased costs associated with attracting and retaining technical talent. A table gives data on costs of well drilling

Assistive technology pricing in Australia: is it efficient and equitable?

Science.gov (United States)

Summers, Michael P; Verikios, George

2018-02-01

Objective To examine available systematically collected evidence regarding prices for assistive technology (AT; e.g. disability aids and equipment) in Australia with other comparable countries. Issues of appropriate AT pricing are coming to the fore as a consequence of efforts to move to consumer-centric purchasing decisions with the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and also in the recent aged care reforms. Methods We identified and present three sets of AT price comparisons. Two comparisons were based solely on the lowest prices advertised on the internet, and one comparison examined recommended retail prices. Variables essential to ensuring accurate comparisons, as well as significant supply-chain issues were also examined and considered in the analyses. Results The first internet-only price comparison found that overall AT prices were 38% higher in Australia compared to other countries, but did not factor in shipping and other related costs that are essential to include given that most AT is imported. The second internet-only price comparison found that overall Australian prices were 24% lower when shipping and related costs were included. The recommended retail price comparisons found that Australian prices were between 14% and 27% lower. Prices for internet-only retailers (those with no bricks-and-mortar presence) are consistently lower for all products than those sold by retailers with actual shop-fronts. Further, there is no evidence of suppliers earning supranormal profits in Australia. Conclusions The results indicate that AT prices in Australia are efficient and equitable, with no significant indicators of market failure which would require government intervention. Efforts to reduce prices through the excessive use of large-scale government procurement programs are likely to reduce diversity and innovation in AT and raise AT prices over time. Open markets and competition with centralised tracking of purchases and providers to minimise possible

76 FR 16460 - Parcel Select Price and Classification Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-23

... a recently-filed Postal Service notice of rate and classification changes affecting Parcel Select. The Postal Service seeks to implement new prices for Parcel Select for forwarding and return to sender... the United States Postal Service of Changes in Rates of General Applicability for a Competitive...

Method of evaluation of solar collector cost under fuel price change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klychev, Sh. I.; Sadykova, N. S.; Saifiev, A. U.; Ismanzhanov, A. I.; Samiev, M.

2013-01-01

When we take into account the problems of large-scale use of solar energy, the matters of economic perspectives of solar plants in the future become vital. We present the method on whose basis evaluation of the cost of solar collectors is performed taking into account the change in the fuel prices. The method is based on the approach to evaluation of the cost of energy generated by the solar plants offered previously by the authors. Assuming that the components of expenditures for production are not changed, we obtained that the cost of solar collectors will grow, at approximately the same ratio as the growth of the prices for fuel (energy). Thus, the problem of creation of the economically effective solar collectors should be solved already today, at the existing prices for materials and fuel. At present, it is assumed that competitiveness of the solar plants will increase with the growth of the fuel prices. (authors)

Do 'enabling technologies' affect customer performance in price-responsive load programs?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldman, Charles A.; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Heffner, Grayson

2002-01-01

Price-responsive load (PRL) programs vary significantly in overall design, the complexity of relationships between program administrators, load aggregators, and customers, and the availability of ''enabling technologies''. Enabling technologies include such features as web-based power system and price monitoring, control and dispatch of curtailable loads, communications and information systems links to program participants, availability of interval metering data to customers in near real time, and building/facility/end-use automation and management capabilities. Two state agencies - NYSERDA in New York and the CEC in California - have been conspicuous leaders in the demonstration of demand response (DR) programs utilizing enabling technologies. In partnership with key stakeholders in these two states (e.g., grid operator, state energy agencies, and program administrators), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) surveyed 56 customers who worked with five contractors participating in CEC or NYSERDA-sponsored DR programs. We combined market research and actual load curtailment data when available (i.e., New York) or customer load reduction targets in order to explore the relative importance of contractor's program design features, sophistication of control strategies, and reliance on enabling technologies in predicting customer's ability to deliver load reductions in DR programs targeted to large commercial/industrial customers. We found preliminary evidence that DR enabling technology has a positive effect on load curtailment potential. Many customers indicated that web-based energy information tools were useful for facilitating demand response (e.g., assessing actual performance compared to load reduction contract commitments), that multiple notification channels facilitated timely response, and that support for and use of backup generation allowed customers to achieve significant and predictable load

Experimental research on the relation between food price changes and food-purchasing patterns: a targeted review1234

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Leonard H; Jankowiak, Noelle; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Raynor, Hollie A; French, Simone A; Finkelstein, Eric

2012-01-01

One way in which to modify food purchases is to change prices through tax policy, subsidy policy, or both. We reviewed the growing body of experimental research conducted in the laboratory and in the field that investigates the following: the extent to which price changes influence purchases of targeted and nontargeted foods, total energy, or macronutrients purchased; the interaction of price changes with adjunctive interventions; and moderators of sensitivity to price changes. After a brief overview of economic principles and observational research that addresses these issues, we present a targeted review of experimental research. Experimental research suggests that price changes modify purchases of targeted foods, but research on the overall nutritional quality of purchases is mixed because of substitution effects. There is mixed support for combining price changes with adjunctive interventions, and there are no replicated findings on moderators to price sensitivity in experiments. Additional focused research is needed to better inform food policy development with the aim of improving eating behavior and preventing obesity. PMID:22378726

Prices, Politics and Persuasion: The Case of Pollution Control and Clean Technology Adoption

OpenAIRE

Wenli Cheng; Dingsheng Zhang; CEMA, Central University of Finance and Economics

2013-01-01

This paper presents three simple models to study how prices, politics and persuasion may each play a role in environmental policymaking. Our conclusions are twofold. First, in the absence of increasing returns, requiring the polluting industry to purchase pollution permits can internalize the negative externality of pollution, and the optimal price of pollution permits should increase with the disutility of pollution. Second, with increasing returns in the industry using clean technologies, i...

Price caps and price floors in climate policy: a quantitative assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, Cedric

2008-12-15

This study assesses the long-term economic and environmental effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical climate change mitigation architecture, which aims to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. Based on abatement costs in IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms what qualitative analyses have already suggested: introducing price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. With price caps, the expected costs could be reduced by about 50% and the uncertainty on economic costs could be one order of magnitude lower. Reducing economic uncertainties may spur the adoption of more ambitious policies by helping to alleviate policy makers' concerns of economic risks. Meanwhile, price floors would reduce the level of emissions beyond the objective if the abatement costs ended up lower than forecasted. If caps and floors are commensurate with the ambition of the policy pursued and combined with slightly tightened emission objectives, climatic results could be on average similar to those achieved with 'straight' objectives (i.e. with no cost-containment mechanism). (auth)

The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.

2011-01-01

I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

PRICING, REIMBURSEMENT, AND HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF MEDICINAL PRODUCTS IN BULGARIA.

Science.gov (United States)

Benisheva-Dimitrova, Tatyana; Sidjimova, Dobriana; Cherneva, Daniela; Kralimarkov, Nikolay

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the analysis, discussion, and challenges of the price and reimbursement process of medicinal products in Bulgaria in the period 2000-15 and health technology assessment (HTA) role in these processes. The dynamics of the reform, with respect to the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, are tracked by documentary review of regulations, articles, and reports in the European Union (EU), as well as analytical and historical analysis. Pricing and reimbursement processes have passed through a variety of committees between 2003 and 2012. Separate units for pricing and reimbursement of medicinal products were established in Bulgaria for the first time, in 2013, when an independent body, the National Council at Prices and Reimbursement of Medicinal Products, was set up to approve medicinal products with new international nonproprietary names (INN) for reimbursement in Bulgaria. Over the course of 2 years (2013-14), thirty-three new INNs were approved for reimbursement. In December 2015, a new HTA body was introduced, and assigned to the National Centre for Public Health and Analyses. Although Bulgaria has current legislation on pricing and reimbursement which is in accordance with the EU rules, there is no mechanism for reporting and monitoring these processes or the financial resources annually, so as to provide an overall objective assessment and analysis by year. Therefore, this financial assessment should become a national policy objective for the future.

International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bondia, Ripsy; Ghosh, Sajal; Kanjilal, Kakali

2016-01-01

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, exhaustibility and geo-politics induced price volatility of crude oil has magnified the importance of looking for alternative sources of energy. In this paper, we investigate the long term relationship of stock prices of alternative energy companies with oil prices in a multivariate framework. To this end, we use threshold cointegration tests, which endogenously incorporate possible regime shifts in long run relationship of underlying variables. In contrast to the findings of the previous study by Managi and Okimoto (2013), our results indicate presence of cointegration among the variables with two endogenous structural breaks. This study confirms that ignoring the presence of structural breaks in a long time series data, as has been done in previous study, can produce misleading results. In terms of causality, while the stock prices of alternative energy companies are impacted by technology stock prices, oil prices and interest rates in the short run, there is no causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in the long run. The study discusses the possible reasons behind the empirical findings and concludes with a discussion on short run and long run investment opportunities for the investors. - Highlights: • Cointegration between alternative energy companies stock price and oil price. • Threshold cointegration tests are employed. • Cointegration among the variables exists with two endogenous structural breaks. • Alternative energy companies stock price impacted by oil prices in short run. • No causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in long run.

Assessing the value of price caps and floors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-07-01

This publication assesses the long-term economic and climatic effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical global climate change mitigation policy. Based on emission trends, abatement costs and equilibrium climate sensitivity from IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms that price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. Furthermore,this analysis shows that rigid targets may entail greater economic risks with little or no comparative advantage for the climate. More ambitious emission objectives, combined with price caps and price floors, could still entail significantly lower expected costs while driving similar, or even slightly better, climatic outcomes in probabilistic terms.

How to succeed with value-based pricing : A case study of how a Swedish OEM is working with price strategy in the context of globalization

OpenAIRE

HANNAH BJÖRK, HANNAH; FORSBERG, LINA

2015-01-01

In today’s world, change is faster than ever with rapid technological development and increasing global competition. The effects of globalization have led to more intense international competition when competitors originate from different parts of the world. Thanks to the use of new information technology, transparency has increased and made it possible for customers to compare products and prices between suppliers and prices in different markets and also buy cross-border. This puts pressure ...

Considerations for Solar Energy Technologies to Make Progress Towards Grid Price Parity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodhouse, Michael; Fu, Ran; Chung, Donald; Horowitz, Kelsey; Remo, Timothy; Feldman, David; Margolis, Robert

2015-11-07

In this seminar the component costs for solar photovoltaics module and system prices will be highlighted. As a basis for comparison to other renewable and traditional energy options, the metric of focus will be total lifecycle cost-of-energy (LCOE). Several innovations to traditional photovoltaics technologies (including crystalline silicon, CdTe, and CIGS) and developing technologies (including organics and perovskites) that may close the gaps in LCOE will be discussed.

An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niels Framroze Møller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption- and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices. We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011. The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed.

Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

2012-12-01

Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Seguin, Charles

Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shangkun Deng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2002-01-01

An important concern of OPEC's work is to be able to understand how much supply of oil exists in different countries, in order to help better conserve oil. This paper extends M. King Hubbert's oil production and discovery forecasting model (Hubbert, 1962), using a non-time-series cumulative discovery and production quadratic Hubbert curve and structural shift variables to model technology and regulation changes. The model can be used to determine better world oil supplies. Price is tested, to see how powerful it is for increasing or decreasing oil supply. Using a trend of cumulative production, instead of time, will help to better fix the supply elasticity with respect to price, which is shown to be very inelastic. An interesting question is whether cumulative discovery or production constitutes an I(2) variable. This paper explains that they are not I(2) variables. (Author)

Gasoline prices in Canada : report of Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lastewka, W.

2003-11-01

The House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology has reviewed the data on retail, rack and crude gasoline prices in Canada in response to soaring prices. Prices were compared to those in the United States and elsewhere. The Committee looked at all possible explanations for the most recent increase in gasoline prices and has concluded that the recent increase in the price of gasoline was the result of industry's competitive reactions to a series of international crises and abnormally cold weather in North America. No evidence indicated anticompetitive conduct on the part of the industry, nor was there evidence of abusive behaviour on the part of vertically integrated suppliers in the form of squeezing retail margins to eliminate or discipline independent retailers. The Committee relied on data collected and published by the industry. It would have preferred an independent source, but none was available. The Committee recommended that the Government of Canada create and fund a Petroleum Monitoring Agency to collect and disseminate price data on crude oil, refined petroleum products, and retail gasoline for all relevant North American markets. The agency will report to Parliament on an annual basis for 3 years. The report will include information on the competitive aspects of the petroleum sector in Canada. refs., tabs., figs

International Technology-Oriented Agreements to Address Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Coninck, H.C.; Fischer, C.; Newell, R.G.; Ueno, T.

2007-01-01

Much discussion has surrounded possible alternatives for international agreements on climate change, particularly post-2012. Among these alternatives, technology-oriented agreements (TOAs) are perhaps the least well defined. We explore what TOAs may consist of, why they might be sensible, which TOAs already exist in international energy and environmental governance, and whether they have the potential to make a valuable contribution to addressing climate change. We conclude that TOAs aimed at knowledge sharing and coordination, research, development, or demonstration could increase the overall efficiency and effectiveness of international climate cooperation, but have limited environmental effectiveness on their own. Technology transfer agreements are likely to have similar properties unless the level of resources expended on them is large, in which case they could be environmentally significant. Technology mandates, standards, or incentives can be environmentally effective, within the applicable sector. However, they are likely to be less cost-effective than broad-based, flexible approaches that place a price on emissions. These results indicate that TOAs have the potential to improve the effectiveness of the global response to climate change. The success of specific TOAs will depend on their design, implementation, and the role they are expected to play relative to other components of the climate policy portfolio

Technological change of the energy innovation system: From oil-based to bio-based energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wonglimpiyarat, Jarunee

2010-01-01

This paper concerns the structural developments and the direction of technological change of the energy innovation system, based on the studies of Kuhn's model of scientific change and Schumpeter's model of technological change. The paper uses the case study of Thai government agencies for understanding the way governments can facilitate technological innovation. The analyses are based on a pre-foresight exercise to examine the potential of the bio-based energy and investigate a set of development policies necessary for the direction of energy system development. The results have shown that bio-based energy is seen as the next new wave for future businesses and one of the solutions to the problem of high oil prices to improve the world's economic security and sustainable development. (author)

The Impact of Product Price Changes on the Turnover of Small and Medium Enterprises in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imoleayo Foyeke Obigbemi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Pricing decision has been a crucial decision made by all business enterprises at all levels and has posed a great challenge for Small and Medium Enterprises in Nigeria. This research work treats the impact of change in price on the sales turnover of organizations, a study of SMEs in Nigeria. The methodology adopted was the survey and empirical approach, with the administration of questionnaires to some SMEs in Nigeria, evaluating the effect change in product price has on turnover. Primary and secondary sources were used to in collecting data. It was discovered that there is a relationship between change in cost of sales and turnover. Recommendations were made for the close monitoring of SMEs and that SMEs should employ the service of price experts when making pricing decisions.

TECHNOLOGY FORMING PRICE DISTRIBUTION OF FINISHED GOODS OF LOGISTICS SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novikova T. V.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Modern economics has developed a number of areas of the system for controlling the distribution of finished products. However, in domestic and foreign economic literature the mechanisms of logistics approach are not sufficient to provide higher sales of enterprise-producers, that have sales in remote areas. In this study, first, the importance of company-producers and end-users the methods of rational delivery of finished products is considered, and secondly, the approaches to defining the essence and content of the concept of «distribution» are given, in the third, the logistics processes of the distribution system ready products of a particular company-producer are described, fourthly, the technology of one price product delivery was developed and it was shown the economic efficiency (the possible results of the solution of the problem of distribution logistics of its application in the target company. The study showed that there is an opportunity, based on the development and implementation of technologies to reduce the final price of the goods, to develop the company and increase its competitiveness by minimizing costs and increasing return on investment. The results of research extend the knowledge of methodology of system logistics management in the enterprise.

Electricity transmission pricing and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Einhorn, M.; Siddiqi, R.

1996-01-01

The electric utility industry and its stake holders in the United States appear to be at a critical juncture in time. Powerful forces of global proportions are propelling the industry instinctively and in a secular fashion towards restructuring. That the industry will change is a fait accomplii. The nature and timing of the change is still a matter of intense debate, however. Because of the evolution of the industry into its present-day form, i.e. regulated local monopolies in their designated franchise service territories, the relative roles and expectations of various institutions would have to change to conform to the new state in the future. In either encouraging, or allowing this change to happen, society is essentially saying that future societal welfare would be better served by the changed structure contemplated. What that assumption translates into in more direct terms is that creation of future wealth would be better accomplished through redistribution of wealth today. Thoughtful individuals recognize the enormous responsibility placed upon the various entities empowered with jurisdiction over the timing and nature of the structural change. They are trying hard to bring analytical rigor to bear on the debate. One very critical element of this debate on restructuring is the issue of the treatment of transmission. The issue has been variously labeled transmission access, or pricing. Volumes have been written and spoken on this topic. We felt that there was a pressing need to assemble a volume which would serve as a one-stop source for varied viewpoints and comprehensive coverage of the subject, both technical and economic. 58 figs., 23 tabs., 103 refs

European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abadie, Luis M.; Chamorro, Jose M.

2008-01-01

We assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant operating in a carbon-constrained environment. We consider two sources of risk, namely the price of emission allowance and the price of the electricity output. First we analyse the performance of the EU market for CO 2 emission allowances. Specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008 to 2012) and calibrate the underlying parameters of the allowance price process. Then we refer to the Spanish wholesale electricity market and calibrate the parameters of the electricity price process. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice to derive the optimal investment rule. In particular, we obtain the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the effect of changes in several variables on these critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, immediate installation does not seem justified from a financial point of view. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically, carbon capture technology undergoes significant improvements, and/or a specific governmental policy to promote these units is adopted. (author)

Estimating the effects of Technology and Depletion on the Real Price of Copper in the U. S. Using a Cointegration Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bunuel, M.

2001-07-01

The effects of technology and depletion on U. S. copper scarcity- as measured by real price can be estimated explicitly using econometrics, rather than assuming the their combined effect is implicit in a quadratic trend. The two most relevant cost-decreasing technologies-black-caving and open-pit mining and leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW)-are proxied by their rate of diffusion. Depletion is proxied by average yield. Since these proxies and real price contain a unit root. Johansen's maximum-likelihood estimation procedure is used to test for the number of cointegrating relations, and estimate a vector autoregressive model from which a price equation in error-correction form is derived. A unique cointegrating relation without a trend is found, which supports the hypothesis that the real price of copper has no scarcity-rent component if we believe that this components should be modeled as a trend. The cointegrating relation loads into the price equation, and the convergence towards the long-run equilibrium is almost instantaneous. The estimated combined effect of physical depletion and technology on the U. S. real price of copper shows that the diffusion of block-caving and open-pit mining technologies off set the effect on price of the decline in average yield until the end of the thirties. From 1938 to 1976, the combined effect was slightly positive, and markedly and continuously negative thereafter, as a result of the introduction of leaching and SX-EW technologies, and the stabilization and even increase of average yield. (Author)

The impact of seasonal rice price changes on rice self-consumption in farm household of rural Java

Science.gov (United States)

Ani, S. W.; Antriyandarti, E.

2018-03-01

Seasonal rice price changes are very volatile and not predictable. This price changes have a heterogeneous impact on public consumption. The problem of seasonal rice price changes is not only experienced by consumers, but also in the farmers side as producers. The objective of this study is to provide a detail overview and description of the changing seasonal rice self-consumption of farm households in rural Java in response to seasonal rice price changes and income shocks to anticipate seasonal scarcity. This paper constructs a theoretical model to address such seasonality of food deprivation by using one year of seasonally farm household panel data, empirically tests the extent to which farmers in rural Java can smooth their rice self-consumption from season to season in response to income shocks. The result shows that rice farmers increase their rice self-consumption when prices are high.

A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

Science.gov (United States)

Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

2017-06-01

We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

The tug-of-war between resource depletion and technological change in the global oil industry 1981-2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindholt, Lars

2013-01-15

We perform an empirical analysis of the extent to which ongoing technological change through RandD activity has offset the effect of ongoing depletion on the cost of finding additional reserves of oil in eight global regions. We introduce a finding cost function that among other factors depends on the cumulative number of past RandD expenses and cumulative past production, measuring technological change and depletion, respectively. For all our regions we find significant effects of both depletion and technological change on oil finding costs from 1981 to 2009, barring cyclical variations in finding costs that could come from changes in factor prices. For almost all regions technology more than mitigated depletion until around the mid-nineties. However, we find that depletion outweighed technological progress over the last decade.(author)

How is perceived inflation related to actual price changes in the European Union?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonides, G.

2008-01-01

We analyze for which types of consumer expenditures the rate of price change influences consumer perception of inflation. We use both harmonized consumer price indices (HCPI) and series of perceived inflation from Eurostat in the 1996¿2006 time period for 13 European countries. After removing

Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloess, Maximilian; Mueller, Andreas

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels. - Highlights: → We present a simulation model for future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → We develop scenarios up to 2050 assuming two different policy schemes. → Policy strongly affects energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → Policy can slow down growth in demand for passenger car transport. → Policy can promote the diffusion of more efficient propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.

Dynamic Relation Mechanism between Cotton Future Price and Stock Price of Related Listed Companies

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

The Dynamic relation mechanism between ZCE cotton futures price and related listed company stock price has been studied based on the metastock historical data in January 1st,2007 to September 1st,2010,Johansen co-integration analysis,Vector error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method.The results indicated that:long-term equilibrium relationship existed between ZCE cotton futures price and Xinsai share stock price while which changed in the same tendency and speed in the long-term.Cotton futures price is the main reason for the changing of Xinsai share stock price.The lead-lag relationship in changing course had been confirmed that existed between ZCE cotton futures price and the Xinsai share stock price.Meanwhile,the forward pass mechanism of price changing information had been found only from the ZCE cotton futures market to the stock market while showing asymmetry.Conclusions of the study can be used for cotton and related corporate to hedge business risks by the cotton price changes.

Changing Prices in a Weak Housing Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xu Dianqing

2008-01-01

@@ First, the adjustment in housing prices are in some cases just a regular marketing strategy. Speculation is restrained by macrocontrol policies, which naturally slows down a price increase.It is also predictable that some unreasonably high prices will need to be readjusted.

Customizing Prices in Online Markets

OpenAIRE

Werner Reinartz

2002-01-01

Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending on the value these customers attribute to a good. Underlying the concept of dynamic pricing is what marketers call price customization. Price customization is the charging of different prices to end consumers based on a discriminatory variable. Internet technology will serve as a great enabling tool for making dynamic pricing accessible to many industries.

[Health technology assessment and its impact on pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies].

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo-Laborde, Carla; Silva-Illanes, Nicolás

2014-01-01

The article conceptualizes the pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies related to financial coverage in the context of health systems. It introduces the pharmaceutical market as an imperfect one, in which appropriate regulation is required. Moreover, the basis that guide the pricing and reimbursement processes are defined and described in order to generate a categorization based on whether they are intended to assess the 'added value' and if the evaluation is based on cost-effectiveness criteria. This framework is used to review different types of these policies applied in the international context, discussing the role of the Health Technology Assessment in these processes. Finally, it briefly discusses the potential role of these types of policies in the Chilean context.

Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

2007-01-01

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

Does comprehensive redevelopment change the housing price gradient? A case study in Mongkok, Hong Kong

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yung Yau

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Urban decay is an inevitable outcome of the growth of most cities, including Hong Kong. Many old buildings in Hong Kong are dilapidated, and it is urgent to tackle urban decay in the city. Redeveloping dilapidated buildings has long been regarded as an effective solution to this urban problem. Yet, as suggested in the literature, redevelopment may be responsible for gentrifying neighbourhoods because it pushes up property and rental prices near redeveloped sites. However, there are still few empirical studies on how comprehensive redevelopment affects housing values in a neighbourhood. In this light, this study investigates the impacts of the Urban Renewal Authority’s Argyle Street / Shanghai Street Redevelopment Project on the transaction prices of nearby housing. A set of panel data is employed and the change in the spatial price gradient before and after the redevelopment project is explored. The findings suggest that proximity to the project site had a significant positive impact on housing prices before the project. However, no change was seen in the spatial price gradient after completion of the project. These results confirm the findings of a previous study that housing prices do not respond to the change in the environmental quality resulting from comprehensive redevelopment.

75 FR 76282 - Domestic Shipping Services Pricing and Mailing Standards Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-08

... United States Postal Service, Domestic Mail Manual (DMM[reg]), to reflect changes to prices and mailing standards for the following Shipping Services: Express Mail[reg], Priority Mail[reg], Parcel Select[reg... following changes to Mailing Standards of the United States Postal Service, Domestic Mail Manual (DMM...

Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector

OpenAIRE

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Serletis, Apostolos

2017-01-01

Energy security, climate change, and growing energy demand issues are moving up on the global political agenda, and contribute to the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector. In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price shocks, and also of uncertainty about oil prices, on the stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. In doing so, we use monthly data that span the period from May 1983 to December 2016, and a bivariate structural VAR model that is modified to accommod...

U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

OpenAIRE

Isengildina-Massa, Olga; MacDonald, Stephen

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze structural changes that took place in the cotton industry in recent years and develop a statistical model that reflects the current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in 79 years. In addition, systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review...

Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

1983-07-01

The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

Studying language change using price equation and Pólya-urn dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Tamariz, Mónica; Jäger, Gerhard

2012-01-01

Language change takes place primarily via diffusion of linguistic variants in a population of individuals. Identifying selective pressures on this process is important not only to construe and predict changes, but also to inform theories of evolutionary dynamics of socio-cultural factors. In this paper, we advocate the Price equation from evolutionary biology and the Pólya-urn dynamics from contagion studies as efficient ways to discover selective pressures. Using the Price equation to process the simulation results of a computer model that follows the Pólya-urn dynamics, we analyze theoretically a variety of factors that could affect language change, including variant prestige, transmission error, individual influence and preference, and social structure. Among these factors, variant prestige is identified as the sole selective pressure, whereas others help modulate the degree of diffusion only if variant prestige is involved. This multidisciplinary study discerns the primary and complementary roles of linguistic, individual learning, and socio-cultural factors in language change, and offers insight into empirical studies of language change.

Inducing low-carbon investment in the electric power industry through a price floor for emissions trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brauneis, Alexander; Mestel, Roland; Palan, Stefan

2013-01-01

Uncertainty about long-term climate policy is a major driving force in the evolution of the carbon market price. Since this price enters the investment decision process of regulated firms, this uncertainty increases the cost of capital for investors and might deter investments into new technologies at the company level. We apply a real options-based approach to assess the impact of climate change policy in the form of a constant or growing price floor on investment decisions of a single firm in a competitive environment. This firm has the opportunity to switch from a high-carbon “dirty” technology to a low-carbon “clean” technology. Using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques for real data, we determine the optimal CO 2 price floor level and growth rate in order to induce investments into the low-carbon technology. We find that a carbon price floor can be used to induce earlier low-carbon technology investment and show this result to be robust to a large variety of input parameter settings. - Highlights: ► We model the investment decision of an electricity generating company. ► The company can invest in low and high carbon technologies. ► We investigate different carbon price floor designs. ► A carbon price floor leads to earlier investment into low-carbon technology.

Determinants of agro-food price changes in Slovenia

OpenAIRE

Gričar, Sergej; Bojnec, Štefan

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the impacts of the current economic developments, the Euro adoption, and input prices on the consumer food prices. The focus of the analysis is on the consumer food price developments during the Slovenian adjustments towards the European Union membership, the Euro adoption by the followed increased in consumer prices, and the current economic and financial conditions. The empirical analysis on the determinants of the consumer food prices is based on the monthly statist...

Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

OpenAIRE

Dike, Jude C.

2014-01-01

This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and Sout...

Oil price induced gas acquisition contracts. Immune to price changes; Oelpreisindizierte Gasbezugsvertraege. Immun gegen Preisaenderungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verhoeven, Meike [Soptim AG, Aachen (Germany)

2012-10-15

The gas price continues to be linked to the oil price. Gas utilities that must buy gas in these conditions and sell it at a fixed price incur considerable financial risk. Especially with long-term buying contracts, and especially for gas from Russia, producers insist on linking to the oil price. Gas utilities, on the other hand, had to stop to sell gas at a price linked to the oil price two years ago. Utilities attempt to protect themselves, e.g. via oil swaps. Professional portfolio management is necessary to cope with the risks and the highly complex processes involved.

The impact of crude oil price volatility on agricultural employment in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uri, N.D.

1996-01-01

This study addresses the question of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected agricultural employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price volatility is established using cointegration tests. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate is examined. (author)

Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl

2016-01-01

Using monthly data from the Spanish gasoline retail market we explore asymmetries in consumers’ behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes. In particular, we are interested in investigating whether an increase in gasoline taxes has a more negative impact on the demand than a –similar in magnitude– increase in the “pre-tax” price of gasoline for different fuel types. We estimate fuel consumers’ responses using a rich set of robust panel data models considering potential dynamic effects and endogeneity problems. We find evidence to confirm the existence of asymmetric responses for the demand of unleaded fuels and agricultural diesel fuel. However we cannot support this statement for the regular diesel case: for this fuel both the tax-exclusive price and the tax elasticities are roughly the same. This result agrees with the fact that “diesel drivers” tend to be better informed about changes in both fuel prices and taxes. Some implications in terms of fiscal policy and pollution and climate change policy are also discussed. - Highlights: •Provide evidence of asymmetric responses of gasoline demand due to changes in prices and taxes. •Identify differences in the elasticity of the demand of diesel fuel and unleaded gasoline. •Perform robustness checks considering dynamic effects and IV regression. •Provide some policy recommendations for future gasoline tax changes.

Technological changes, new materials, and their impact on the demand for minerals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogich, D.G.

1991-01-01

Almost all mineral commodities compete in an international market, and changing technologies and preferences can impact this materials market to either increase or decrease the demand for specific minerals. This paper presents information on the changes we are seeing in materials usage in the United States, some specific examples of market penetration and methods to evaluate this, and some preliminary data on worldwide trends. Traditionally, evaluating the viability of a mineral venture involves the estimation of anticipated costs, production rates, mine life, and discount rates. These estimated costs are then compared with current and expected future prices to see if the necessary return on investment is likely to be generated. Additionally, an examination of the current, and expected future competition in the market is certainly of interest since an assessment of where the operation's costs fall in relation to the total world supply determines how far demand/prices can fall before stronger operations can supply the whole market. Feedstock price has been the traditional measure in the minerals community, and most producers think of themselves as suppliers of particular commodities in competition with other similar suppliers. However, this approach must be altered when we seek to evaluate how individual commodities compete in a market where substitution is expanding

Impacts of changing hardwood lumber consumption and price on stumpage and sawlog prices in Ohio

Science.gov (United States)

William Luppold; Matthew Bumgardner; T. Eric. McConnell

2014-01-01

In the early 2000s, increasing US furniture imports preceded declining US hardwood lumber demand and price. In the summer of 2002, however, hardwood lumber prices started to increase as demand by construction industries increased. By the mid-2000s, hardwood lumber prices hit all-time highs. Lumber prices hit all-time highs for red oak (Quercus spp...

Natural gas prices and the end of gradual change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osten, J.A.

1998-01-01

Natural gas price predictions for the years 1998, 1999-2001, 2000-2005 are provided. In general, prices are predicted to decrease with increase in storage. Some other factors that will influence the price of natural gas and, therefore, should receive consideration in price predictions, include growth in demand, natural gas production, deliverability, new pipelines, and the Alberta price basis. tabs., figs

Pricing offshore wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levitt, Andrew C.; Kempton, Willett; Smith, Aaron P.; Musial, Walt; Firestone, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Offshore wind offers a very large clean power resource, but electricity from the first US offshore wind contracts is costlier than current regional wholesale electricity prices. To better understand the factors that drive these costs, we develop a pro-forma cash flow model to calculate two results: the levelized cost of energy, and the breakeven price required for financial viability. We then determine input values based on our analysis of capital markets and of 35 operating and planned projects in Europe, China, and the United States. The model is run for a range of inputs appropriate to US policies, electricity markets, and capital markets to assess how changes in policy incentives, project inputs, and financial structure affect the breakeven price of offshore wind power. The model and documentation are made publicly available. - Highlights: → We calculate the Breakeven Price (BP) required to deploy offshore wind plants. → We determine values for cost drivers and review incentives structures in the US. → We develop 3 scenarios using today's technology but varying in industry experience. → BP differs widely by Cost Scenario; relative policy effectiveness varies by stage. → The low-range BP is below regional market values in the Northeast United States.

Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

2010-01-01

The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

Carpooling and Driver Responses to Fuel Price Changes: Evidence from Traffic Flows in Los Angeles

OpenAIRE

Antonio M. Bento; Jonathan E. Hughes; Daniel T. Kaffine

2012-01-01

Understanding how drivers respond to fuel price changes has important implications for highway congestion, accidents, carbon policy, local air pollution and taxation. We examine the underexplored relationship between fuel prices and carpooling. Using a simple theoretical model we show that traffic flows in mainline lanes decrease when fuel prices increase. However in carpool (HOV) lanes, flow can either increase or decrease. Traffic flows in mainline lanes are shown to be more responsive to p...

Understanding the determinants of electricity prices and the impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoenes, Stefan

2011-01-01

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a vector error correction model and a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient model. The results indicate that the electricity price adapts to fuel price changes in a long-term cointegration relationship. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. It is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Effect between China’s Refined Oil Prices and International Crude Oil Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yufeng Chen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper employs an asymmetric error-correction model (AECM, and uses monthly data on wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel products in China and international crude oil prices from February 2006 to October 2013 to examine whether China’s gasoline and diesel prices adjust asymmetrically to international crude oil price changes. Our empirical results suggest that increases and decreases in international oil prices have asymmetric effects on both wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in China, and that both increases and decreases in international oil prices have a greater effect on diesel prices than on gasoline prices in China. If there is no change in the maximum retail price, the asymmetry results from the transmission of wholesale prices in China with international oil prices. However, if there is a change in maximum retail prices, both international oil prices and maximum retail prices cause the asymmetry.

77 FR 64725 - International Product and Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-23

... Postage or a permit imprint, (i.e., Click-N-Ship for Business, Webtools) must pay the retail price... Commercial Base TM price and Commercial Plus TM price for customers that prepare and pay for GXG shipments... at least $100,000 in revenue per year for not only GXG, Express Mail International, Priority Mail...

Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mari, Carlo

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

Changing the Price of Marriage: Evidence from Blood Test Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Buckles, Kasey; Guldi, Melanie; Price, Joseph

2011-01-01

We use state repeals of blood test requirements (BTRs) for a marriage license that occurred between 1980 and 2008 to examine the impact of changes in the price of marriage on the marriage decision. Using a within-group estimator that holds constant state and year effects and exploits variation in the repeal dates of BTRs across states, we find…

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable

Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

Innovation in technology for the least product price and cost - a new minimum cost relation for reductions during technological learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.B.

2004-01-01

By analogy with the concepts of human learning, we show and introduce a new method to obtain least product cost and price that includes the effect of innovation and technological learning in manufacturing and production. This key result is a new paradigm instead of the usual economic 'power law' formulation. The new analysis is based on extensive analysis of many technological systems, and is directly related to the presence of learning as experience is accumulated. The results agree with the observed data. By using a consistent basis, the method replaces previous empirical 'power law' descriptions of the technological learning curve with a new 'marginal minimum cost equation' (MCE). (author)

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF MARKET STABILITY FACTORS ON THE CHANGES IN SHARE PRICE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Виктор Геннадьевич Семенов

2013-09-01

Full Text Available According to fundamental analysis, share price tends to its intrinsic value. An appreciably large body of research has been devoted to foreign stock markets; meanwhile, the Russian stock market has been studied insufficiently. The hypothesis of fundamental analysis of the Russian stock market was tested in this paper. The effect of market stability factors (P/E; P/B; P/CF; P/D on changes in share prices was studied. The data from the financial reports on IFRS – GAAP and the data on share prices of 54 companies over the period of 2003–2013 were used. The results give grounds for claiming that the postulates of fundamental analysis cannot be used for the Russian stock market: the market stability factors do not correlate with the changes in share prices. Next, the possible reasons for this speculative behavior of the Russian stock market were considered. The methods for analyzing the reports and the financial and economic situation in order to determine the company value were proposed in this paper.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-9-5

Cigarette brand diversity and price changes during the implementation of plain packaging in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Breton, Magdalena Opazo; Britton, John; Huang, Yue; Bogdanovica, Ilze

2018-05-29

Plain packaging of cigarettes appeared in the UK in July 2016 and was ubiquitous by May 2017. The change coincided with another legislative change, raising the minimum pack size from 10 to 20 cigarettes. Laws imposing plain packaging on cigarette packs remove another promotional route from tobacco companies but the effect of such laws on brand diversity, pricing, and sales volume is unknown. This study aimed to 1) describe and quantify changes in brand diversity, price segmentation and sales volumes and 2) estimate the association between the introduction of plain cigarette packaging and cigarette pricing in the UK. We used a natural experiment design to assess the impact of plain packaging legislation on brand diversity and cigarette prices. The data comprised a sample of 76% of sales of cigarettes in the UK between March 2013 and June 2017. United Kingdom MEASUREMENTS: Cigarette prices, number of brands and products, volumes of sales FINDINGS: During the period analysed, there was a slight decrease in the number of cigarette brands. There was also an initial increase observed in the number of cigarette products, mainly due to an increase in the number of products in packs of fewer than 20 cigarettes sold before July 2016, which was then followed by a rapid decrease in the number of products that coincided with the implementation of the new legislation. Cigarette sales volumes during this period did not deviate from the preceding secular trend, but prices rose substantially. Regression results showed that price per cigarette, regardless of pack size, was 5.0 (95% CI 4.8 to 5.3) pence higher in plain than in fully branded packs. For packs of 20 cigarettes, price increases were greater in the lower price quintiles, ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 2.4 to 2.7) GBP in the lowest to 0.3 (95% CI 0.3-0.4) GBP per pack in the highest quintile. The implementation of standardised packaging legislation in the UK, which included minimum pack sizes of 20, was associated with

The Value of a Valuation Perspective for Theorizing about Social Change and Climate Change: A Study on Carbon Pricing in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Engels

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study combines three purposes: to advance a valuation perspective for theorizing about social change and climate change; to contribute to the general debate on pricing as the dominant policy to meet climate mitigation goals; to improve our understanding of potential decarbonization processes in China. We apply a valuation perspective to an in-depth case study of an emerging carbon market in Hubei Province in Central China. The study builds on original data collected during field trips to Hubei (2014, 2015 and additional documents covering recent developments in the Chinese carbon market. It shows how putting a price on carbon in China emerges as the outcome of a long-term cultural and institutional process in which China's high-carbon growth model is increasingly contested. We emphasize the work that was required before a carbon price could emerge as a market price, and focus on the uncertainty that needed to be overcome in the complex multilevel Chinese system. We suggest that China's introduction of low-carbon policies are a side effect of other political, economic and social pressures, and that it is largely facilitated because such policies are consistent with many other changes that are occurring simultaneously both in the Chinese context and globally.

48 CFR 239.7406 - Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data. 239.7406 Section 239.7406 Federal Acquisition Regulations System... ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Telecommunications Services 239.7406 Cost or pricing data and...

Prediction of Change in Prescription Ingredient Costs and Co-payment Rates under a Reference Pricing System in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Ji Haeng; Rascati, Karen L; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-05-01

The reference pricing system (RPS) establishes reference prices within interchangeable reference groupings. For drugs priced higher than the reference point, patients pay the difference between the reference price and the total price. To predict potential changes in prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates after implementation of an RPS in South Korea. Korean National Health Insurance claims data were used as a baseline to develop possible RPS models. Five components of a potential RPS policy were varied: reference groupings, reference pricing methods, co-pay reduction programs, manufacturer price reductions, and increased drug substitutions. The potential changes for prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates were predicted for the various scenarios. It was predicted that transferring the difference (total price minus reference price) from the insurer to patients would reduce ingredient costs from 1.4% to 22.8% for the third-party payer (government), but patient co-payment rates would increase from a baseline of 20.4% to 22.0% using chemical groupings and to 25.0% using therapeutic groupings. Savings rates in prescription ingredient costs (government and patient combined) were predicted to range from 1.6% to 13.7% depending on various scenarios. Although the co-payment rate would increase, a 15% price reduction by manufacturers coupled with a substitution rate of 30% would result in a decrease in the co-payment amount (change in absolute dollars vs. change in rates). Our models predicted that the implementation of RPS in South Korea would lead to savings in ingredient costs for the third-party payer and co-payments for patients with potential scenarios. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-04

... Act (Pub. L. 95-91, 42 U.S.C. 7101 et seq.) require the EIA to carry out a centralized, comprehensive... disseminates information on energy resource reserves, production, demand, technology, and related economic... gas wellhead price using a time-series econometric model, which incorporates data from historical...

Pricing for a Durable-Goods Monopolist Under Rapid Sequential Innovation

OpenAIRE

Laura J. Kornish

2001-01-01

A durable-goods monopolist who will be introducing new and improved versions of his product must decide how to price his products, keeping in mind the relative attractiveness of the current and future products. Dhebar (1994) has shown that if technology is changing too quickly and the producer cannot credibly commit to future prices and quality, then no equilibrium strategy exists. That is, there is no credible strategy for the future product that the producer can commit to in the first perio...

The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: an application of the multivariate threshold model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bwo-Nung Huang; National Chia-Yi University; Hwang, M.J.; Hsiao-Ping Peng

2005-01-01

This paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities (changes in industrial production and real stock returns). The statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist. Using monthly data of the US, Canada, and Japan during the period from 1970 to 2002, we conclude: (i) the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy-saving technology; (ii) an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels; (iii) if the change is above threshold levels, it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price; and (iv) if the change is above threshold levels, a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate. (author)

Differential Responses to Food Price Changes by Personal Characteristic: A Systematic Review of Experimental Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizdrak, Anja; Scarborough, Peter; Waterlander, Wilma E; Rayner, Mike

2015-01-01

Fiscal interventions to improve population diet have been recommended for consideration by many organisations including the World Health Organisation and the United Nations and policies such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes have been implemented at national and sub-national levels. However, concerns have been raised with respect to the differential impact of fiscal interventions on population sub-groups and this remains a barrier to implementation. To examine how personal characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, sex, impulsivity, and income) moderate changes in purchases of targeted foods in response to food and beverage price changes in experimental settings. Systematic review. Online databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, EconLit and PsycInfo), reference lists of previous reviews, and additional data from study authors. We included randomised controlled trials where food and beverage prices were manipulated and reported differential effects of the intervention on participant sub-groups defined according to personal characteristics. Where possible, we extracted data to enable the calculation of price elasticities for the target foods by personal characteristic. 8 studies were included in the review. Across studies, the difference in price elasticity varied from 0.02 to 2.43 between groups within the same study. 11 out of the total of 18 comparisons of own-price elasticity estimates by personal characteristic differed by more than 0.2 between groups. Income related factors were the most commonly considered and there was an indication that own-price elasticity estimates do vary by income but the direction of this effect was not clear. Experimental studies provide an opportunity to examine the differential effects of fiscal measures to improve population diets. Patterns in price sensitivity by personal characteristics are complex. General conclusions pertaining to the effects of personal characteristics on price sensitivity are not supported by the

Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

2004-06-01

The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

Real Time Updating Genetic Network Programming for Adapting to the Change of Stock Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yan; Mabu, Shingo; Shimada, Kaoru; Hirasawa, Kotaro

The key in stock trading model is to take the right actions for trading at the right time, primarily based on the accurate forecast of future stock trends. Since an effective trading with given information of stock prices needs an intelligent strategy for the decision making, we applied Genetic Network Programming (GNP) to creating a stock trading model. In this paper, we propose a new method called Real Time Updating Genetic Network Programming (RTU-GNP) for adapting to the change of stock prices. There are three important points in this paper: First, the RTU-GNP method makes a stock trading decision considering both the recommendable information of technical indices and the candlestick charts according to the real time stock prices. Second, we combine RTU-GNP with a Sarsa learning algorithm to create the programs efficiently. Also, sub-nodes are introduced in each judgment and processing node to determine appropriate actions (buying/selling) and to select appropriate stock price information depending on the situation. Third, a Real Time Updating system has been firstly introduced in our paper considering the change of the trend of stock prices. The experimental results on the Japanese stock market show that the trading model with the proposed RTU-GNP method outperforms other models without real time updating. We also compared the experimental results using the proposed method with Buy&Hold method to confirm its effectiveness, and it is clarified that the proposed trading model can obtain much higher profits than Buy&Hold method.

Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

2009-01-01

A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

1995-02-01

The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

Transfer of single farm payment entitlements to farm successors: impact on structural change and rental prices in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriele Mack

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the impact of tradable and non-tradable single farm payment (SFP entitlements for farm successors on structural change and the lease market. Using the example of Swiss agriculture, the effects on rental-price trends and farm-exit rates are investigated. An ex-ante normative impact analysis is performed with the agent-based agricultural-sector model SWISSland, which simulates structural change processes and income trends in Swiss agriculture over a period of up to 15 years. A land market implemented at municipality level simulates the plot-by-plot leasing of land to surrounding neighbouring agents that is common in Switzerland. Allocation of plots to tenants as well as lease pricing is modelled taking into account the farm-specific land rents. The results show that personalised SFP entitlements which could not be transferred to a farm successor not only cause an intensification of structural change, but would also thus lead to a substantial reduction in rental prices. SFP entitlements which were successfully transferred to farm successors have only a slight impact on structural change and the rental prices of arable land. Only for grassland in the mountain region does a stronger shift result in a significant reduction in rental prices.

Pharmaceutical policies: effects of reference pricing, other pricing, and purchasing policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta, Angela; Ciapponi, Agustín; Aaserud, Morten; Vietto, Valeria; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Kösters, Jan Peter; Vacca, Claudia; Machado, Manuel; Diaz Ayala, Diana Hazbeydy; Oxman, Andrew D

2014-10-16

, healthcare utilisation and health outcomes or costs (expenditures); the study had to be a randomised trial, non-randomised trial, interrupted time series (ITS), repeated measures (RM) study or a controlled before-after study of a pharmaceutical pricing or purchasing policy for a large jurisdiction or system of care. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Results were summarised in tables. There were too few comparisons with similar outcomes across studies to allow for meta-analysis or meaningful exploration of heterogeneity. We included 18 studies (seven identified in the update): 17 of reference pricing, one of which also assessed maximum prices, and one of index pricing. None of the studies were trials. All included studies used ITS or RM analyses. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all outcomes. Three reference pricing studies reported cumulative drug expenditures at one year after the transition period. Two studies reported the median relative insurer's cumulative expenditures, on both reference drugs and cost share drugs, of -18%, ranging from -36% to 3%. The third study reported relative insurer's cumulative expenditures on total market of -1.5%. Four reference pricing studies reported median relative insurer's expenditures on both reference drugs and cost share drugs of -10%, ranging from -53% to 4% at one year after the transition period. Four reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of 15% in reference drugs prescriptions at one year (range -14% to 166%). Three reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of -39% in cost share drugs prescriptions at one year (range -87% to -17%). One study of index pricing reported a relative change of 55% (95% CI 11% to 98%) in the use of generic drugs and -43% relative change (95% CI -67% to -18%) in brand drugs at six months after the transition period. The same study reported a price change of -5.3% and -1.1% for generic and brand drugs

Reciprocity, World Prices and Welfare

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raimondos-Møller, Pascalis; Woodland, Alan D.

We examine in detail the circumstances under which reciprocity, as defined in Bagwell and Staiger (1999), leads to fixed world prices. We show that a change of tariffs satisfying reciprocity does not necessarily imply constant world prices in a world of many goods and countries. While it is possi...... of all countries, independently of whether world prices change and independently of the relative numbers of goods and countries.......We examine in detail the circumstances under which reciprocity, as defined in Bagwell and Staiger (1999), leads to fixed world prices. We show that a change of tariffs satisfying reciprocity does not necessarily imply constant world prices in a world of many goods and countries. While...... it is possible to find tariff reforms that are consistent with both reciprocity and constant world prices, these reforms do not follow from the reciprocity condition, but rather from the requirement of unchanged world prices. We propose an alternative reciprocity rule that is guaranteed to raise the welfare...

EMPIRICAL GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF ADVERTISING ON PRICE SENSITIVITY AND PRICE

NARCIS (Netherlands)

KAUL, A; WITTINK, DR

1995-01-01

Consumers' sensitivities to price changes are an important input to strategic and tactical decisions. It has been argued that price sensitivities depend on factors such as advertising Prior studies on the effect of advertising on consumer price sensitivity have found seemingly conflicting results.

Research on the factors influencing the price of commercial housing based on support vector machine (SVM)

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaoyang, Zhong; Hong, Ren; Jingxin, Gao

2018-03-01

With the gradual maturity of the real estate market in China, urban housing prices are also better able to reflect changes in market demand and the commodity property of commercial housing has become more and more obvious. Many scholars in our country have made a lot of research on the factors that affect the price of commercial housing in the city and the number of related research papers increased rapidly. These scholars’ research results provide valuable wealth to solve the problem of urban housing price changes in our country. However, due to the huge amount of literature, the vast amount of information is submerged in the library and cannot be fully utilized. Text mining technology has been widely concerned and developed in the field of Humanities and Social Sciences in recent years. But through the text mining technology to obtain the influence factors on the price of urban commercial housing is still relatively rare. In this paper, the research results of the existing scholars were excavated by text mining algorithm based on support vector machine in order to further make full use of the current research results and to provide a reference for stabilizing housing prices.

Technology shocks matter

OpenAIRE

Jonas D. M. Fisher

2002-01-01

This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to identify the effects of technological change on the US business cycle. In the model there are two sources of technological change: neutral, which effects the production of all goods homogeneously, and investment-specific. Investment-specific shocks are the unique source of the secular trend in the real price of investment goods, while shocks to both kinds of technology are the only factors which affect labor productivity in the long run. Consis...

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

Drug Pricing Reforms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

2015-01-01

Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...... for patients and the health insurance system. We also estimated an increase in consumer welfare but the size effect depends on whether or not perceived quality differences between branded and other drugs are taken into account....

Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...

Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

2006-01-01

Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Public attitudes towards pricing policies to change health-related behaviours: a UK focus group study.

Science.gov (United States)

Somerville, Claire; Marteau, Theresa M; Kinmonth, Ann Louise; Cohn, Simon

2015-12-01

Evidence supports the use of pricing interventions in achieving healthier behaviour at population level. The public acceptability of this strategy continues to be debated throughout Europe, Australasia and USA. We examined public attitudes towards, and beliefs about the acceptability of pricing policies to change health-related behaviours in the UK. The study explores what underlies ideas of acceptability, and in particular those values and beliefs that potentially compete with the evidence presented by policy-makers. Twelve focus group discussions were held in the London area using a common protocol with visual and textual stimuli. Over 300,000 words of verbatim transcript were inductively coded and analyzed, and themes extracted using a constant comparative method. Attitudes towards pricing policies to change three behaviours (smoking, and excessive consumption of alcohol and food) to improve health outcomes, were unfavourable and acceptability was low. Three sets of beliefs appeared to underpin these attitudes: (i) pricing makes no difference to behaviour; (ii) government raises prices to generate income, not to achieve healthier behaviour and (iii) government is not trustworthy. These beliefs were evident in discussions of all types of health-related behaviour. The low acceptability of pricing interventions to achieve healthier behaviours in populations was linked among these responders to a set of beliefs indicating low trust in government. Acceptability might be increased if evidence regarding effectiveness came from trusted sources seen as independent of government and was supported by public involvement and hypothecated taxation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Impact of regulated price adjustments on price variability in a very low inflation transition economy: Case of Armenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aghassi Mkrtchyan

2005-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and administrative price adjustments on price variability in a low inflation economy characterized by relatively frequent administrative price adjustments. Fluctuations of market determined prices, prices of agricultural goods in particular, are linked to poor synchronization between administrative price changes and monetary policy. If monetary policy does not account for expected changes in administrative prices, demand for free goods shifts, causing fluctuation of prices for agricultural goods, because the supply of these goods is highly inelastic in Armenia. The findings contribute to a better understanding of agricultural price variability during 1998-2002. The impact of macroeconomic policy and structural adjustments on income distribution and rural poverty incidence are also examined. This research has immediate policy implications, since Armenia will continue to undergo major upward price adjustments of regulated prices, which may have a negative impact on income distribution unless aggregate demand management is changed.

Depletion of petroleum reserves and oil price trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Babusiaux, D.; Bauquis, P.R.

2007-11-01

This document is the report of the 'Petroleum' working group from the French Academy of Technology, coordinated by the authors in the framework of the Energy and Climate Change Commission chaired by Gilbert Ruelle. Firstly, it present a synthesis of the different points of view about reserves and the peak of world oil production (optimists, pessimists and official organizations). Secondly, it analyzes the mechanisms of oil price formation focusing on the long term without addressing the question of short term market behaviour. The last section is devoted to possible scenarios of the evolution of production profiles and prices in the medium and long term. (authors)

Photovoltaic power: the inadequate purchase price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2009-01-01

The current policy of guaranteed purchase prices applied to photovoltaic power lacks rationality: prices are not graduated, commitment times are too long, there is no capping to capacity developed, subsidies (tax credit, direct subsidy, etc) are complex and give too favourable a return time. The lack of differentiation between products may also delay the emergence of new PV technologies. As a result, it is legitimate to envisage a cost/benefit analysis of future subsidies and to wonder about Frances ability, as a second rank player, to catch up with the leaders (Germany, Japan, United States). The report does not criticize policy based on purchase prices in itself: this is suitable or technology close to commercial operation in that it guarantees stable terms close to wholesale electricity market prices. It does, however, criticize adequacy in terms of less advanced PV technology, which results in purchase prices five times that of wind power. The report proposes re-targeting the system to take account of the significant stakes in PV power. Costly incentives for installing land PV cells and units should be quickly reduced, while industrial demonstration budgets deserve increases to further the development of new technologies (improved crystal silicon and thin layers). The demonstration phase and industrial development should be the primary focus, where a large part of potentially promising reductions in costs are likely to be achieved. (author)

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bettendorf, L. [Tinbergen Instituut, Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Netherlands); Van der Geest, S. [Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kuper, G. [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

2005-04-15

This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

Ownership, competition, and the adoption of new technologies and cost-saving practices in a fixed-price environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirth, R A; Chernew, M E; Orzol, S M

2000-01-01

Advances in medical technology have been implicated as the primary cause of rising health care expenditures. It is not yet known whether the increasing prevalence of managed care mechanisms, particularly capitation, will change substantially incentives for acquiring and using cost-increasing innovations. We examined the decisions of dialysis units (a set of providers that has faced capitation and real decreases in payment for several decades) with respect to use of cost-increasing technologies that enhance quality of care, cost-cutting practices that reduce quality of care, and amenities desired by patients that are unrelated to quality of care. We found that the dialysis payment system does not appear to have blocked access to a number of new, quality-enhancing technologies that were developed in the 1980s. However, facilities made adjustments along other valuable margins to facilitate adoption of these technologies; use of new technologies varied with numerous facility, regulatory, and case-mix characteristics including ownership, chain membership, size, market competition, and certificate of need programs. Interestingly, the trade-offs made by for-profit and nonprofit facilities when faced with fixed prices appeared quite different. For-profits tended to deliver lower technical quality of care but more amenities, while nonprofits favored technical quality of care over amenities. Our findings may have implications for the response of other types of health care providers to capitation and increasing economic constraints.

Technology trends, energy prices affect worldwide rig activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rappold, K.

1995-01-01

The major worldwide offshore rig markets have improved slightly this year, while the onshore markets generally lagged slightly. Offshore rig utilization rates have remained strong worldwide, with some areas reaching nearly 100%. Total worldwide offshore rig (jack ups, semisubmersible, drillships, submersibles, and barges) utilization was about 86%. Offshore drilling activity is driven primarily by oil and natural gas price expectations. Natural gas prices tend to drive North American offshore drilling activity, including the shallow waters in the Gulf of Mexico. International offshore drilling activity and deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico are more closely tied to oil prices. The paper discusses US rig count, directional drilling activity, jack up rig demand, semisubmersibles demand, rig replacement costs, and new construction

[Changes in prices of taxed sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy dense food in rural and semi-rural areas in Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Colchero, M Arantxa; Zavala, J Alejandro; Batis, Carolina; Shamah-Levy, Teresa; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan A

2017-01-01

To estimate changes in prices associated with the implementation of the tax to sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) and to nonessential energy dense food in 2014. Price data were collected in rural and semi-rural areas in December 2013, and April and December 2014. Fixed effects models were used to estimate changes in prices of beverages and nonessential energy dense food, stratified by region, retailer and package size. The SSB tax did not pass completely through prices: prices increased on average 0.73 pesos per liter. For nonessential energy dense food, the tax passed completely or was overshifted for cookies, cereal bars and cereal boxes. The potential effect of the taxes on consumption could be attenuated in rural areas as the pass through prices was incomplete.

76 FR 76619 - International Mail: New Prices and Fee Changes-Mailing Services

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-08

... fraction thereof)......... 0.80 Duplicate copy of PS Form 3606 1.15 * * * * * International Business Reply Service (382) [For each country that offers International Business Reply Service, revise the fees to read... POSTAL SERVICE 39 CFR Part 20 International Mail: New Prices and Fee Changes--Mailing Services...

Price Relationships in the Petroleum Market: An Analysis of Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Voelker, Teresa

2001-08-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

Price relationships in the petroleum market. An analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Volker, Teresa

2003-01-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes

Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, F.; Gjoelberg, O.; Voelker, T.

2003-01-01

In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

Climate regulation enhances the value of second generation biofuel technology

Science.gov (United States)

Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.; Tyner, W.

2014-12-01

Commercial scale implementation of second generation (2G) biofuels has long been 'just over the horizon - perhaps a decade away'. However, with recent innovations, and higher oil prices, we appear to be on the verge of finally seeing commercial scale implementations of cellulosic to liquid fuel conversion technologies. Interest in this technology derives from many quarters. Environmentalists see this as a way of reducing our carbon footprint, however, absent a global market for carbon emissions, private firms will not factor this into their investment decisions. Those interested in poverty and nutrition see this as a channel for lessening the biofuels' impact on food prices. But what is 2G technology worth to society? How valuable are prospective improvements in this technology? And how are these valuations affected by future uncertainties, including climate regulation, climate change impacts, and energy prices? This paper addresses all of these questions. We employ FABLE, a dynamic optimization model for the world's land resources which characterizes the optimal long run path for protected natural lands, managed forests, crop and livestock land use, energy extraction and biofuels over the period 2005-2105. By running this model twice for each future state of the world - once with 2G biofuels technology available and once without - we measure the contribution of the technology to global welfare. Given the uncertainty in how these technologies are likely to evolve, we consider a range cost estimates - from optimistic to pessimistic. In addition to technological uncertainty, there is great uncertainty in the conditions characterizing our baseline for the 21st century. For each of the 2G technology scenarios, we therefore also consider a range of outcomes for key drivers of global land use, including: population, income, oil prices, climate change impacts and climate regulation. We find that the social valuation of 2G technologies depends critically on climate change

Carbon Capture and Storage Investment and Management in an Environment of Technological and Price Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geske, Joachim; Herold, Johannes [Forschungszentrum Juelich and TU Dresden (Germany)

2009-07-01

In this paper we use a real options approach to analyze investment in a CCS postcombustion technology. Uncertainties in the development of efficiency and certificate prices are taken into account. We therefore propose a bounded monotone stochastic process to model energy efficiency development which is in line with thermodynamic limitations. The option not to employ the technology is allowed for. Parameter values are selected carefully. Numerical analysis shows plausible qualitative features. Furthermore there exist investment barriers for each uncertain parameter alone which reduce if interaction of the independent processes is permitted.

CLOUD COMPUTING AND BIG DATA AS CONVERGENT TECHNOLOGIES FOR RETAIL PRICING STRATEGIES OF SMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George SUCIU

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Most retailers know that technology has played an increasingly important role in helping retailers set prices. Online business decision systems are at the core point of an SMEs management and reporting activities. But, until recently, these efforts have been rooted in advances in computing technology, such as cloud computing and big data mining, rather than in newfound applications of scientific principles. In addition, in previous approaches big data mining solutions were implemented locally on private clouds and no SME could aggregate and analyze the information that consumers are exchanging with each other. Real science is a powerful, pervasive force in retail today, particularly so for addressing the complex challenge of retail pricing. Cloud Computing comes in to provide access to entirely new business capabilities through sharing resources and services and managing and assigning resources effectively. Done right, the application of scientific principles to the creation of a true price optimization strategy can lead to significant sales, margin, and profit lift for retailers. In this paper we describe a method to provide the mobile retail consumers with reviews, brand ratings and detailed product information at the point of sale. Furthermore, we present how we use Exalead CloudView platform to search for weak signals in big data by analyzing multimedia data (text, voice, picture, video and mining online social networks. The analysis makes not only customer profiling possible, but also brand promotion in the form of coupons, discounts or upselling to generate more sales, thus providing the opportunity for retailer SMEs to connect directly to its customers in real time. The paper explains why retailers can no longer thrive without a science-based pricing system, defines and illustrates the right science-based approach, and calls out the key features and functionalities of leading science-based price optimization systems. In particular, given

Survey on how fluctuating petrol prices are affecting Malaysian large city dwellers in changing their trip patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Rohani, M. M.; Pahazri, N.

2018-04-01

Rising fuel prices shocks have a significant impact on the way of life of most Malaysians. Due to the rising of oil prices, the costs of travel for private vehicle users are therefore increasing. The study was conducted based on the objective of studying the impact of rising fuel prices on three types of trip patterns of Malaysians who are living in the city areas. The three types of trip patterns are, workplaces trip, leisure trip and personal purposes trip during the weekdays. This study was conducted by distributing questionnaires to respondents of private vehicle users in selected city such as Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Melaka, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan. This study, found that the trip patterns of those who were using their own vehicles had changed after the rising of fuel prices. The changes showed that many private vehicle users were taking steps to save money on petrol by adjusting their trips.

Reducing electricity consumption peaks with parametrised dynamic pricing strategies given maximal unit prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N.F. Höning (Nicolas); J.A. La Poutré (Han); F. Lopes; Z. Vale; J. Sousa; H. Coelho

2013-01-01

htmlabstractDemand response is a crucial mechanism for flattening of peak loads. For its implementation, we not only require consumers who react to price changes, but also intelligent strategies to select prices. We propose a parametrised meta-strategy for dynamic pricing and identify suitable

Sensitivity of portuguese electricity market prices to solar PV penetration : an analysis of 2016 prices

OpenAIRE

Cordeiro De Sousa, João

2017-01-01

The reduction in price of solar PV technology led, in the recent years, multiple investors to apply for installing new solar PV power plants in Portugal which would operate without subsidies or feed-in-tari s. In 2016 it was reported the approval of construction of such power plants and given the low variable cost of this technology it is expected that their penetration would reduce the electricity market prices. Hence, before doing the economic assessment of potential new sola...

75 FR 69334 - International Product and Price Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-12

... illustrate Global Express Guaranteed and Express Mail International permit imprints.] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED.... Priority Mail Gift Card Flat Rate Priority Mail DVD Box, 7\\9/ Envelope, 10'' x 7'', Item EP 14-GT. 16\\'' x... appropriate Price Group table based on the prices below:] BILLING CODE P [[Page 69340

Explaining experience curves for new energy technologies. A case study of liquefied natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greaker, Mads; Lund Sagen, Eirik

2008-01-01

Many new energy technologies seem to experience a fall in unit price as they mature. In this paper we study the unit price of liquefying natural gas in order to make it transportable by ship to gas power installations all over the world. Our point of departure is the experience curve approach, however unlike many other studies of new energy technologies, we also seek to account for autonomous technological change, scale effects and the effects of upstream competition among technology suppliers. To our surprise we find that upstream competition is by far the most important factor contributing to the fall in unit price. With respect to the natural gas business, this may have implications for the future development in prices as the effect of increased upstream competition is temporary and likely to weaken a lot sooner than effects from learning and technological change. Another more general policy implication, is that while promoting new energy technologies, governments must not forget to pay attention to competition policy. (author)

The volatility of stock market prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiller, R J

1987-01-02

If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

Deregulated power prices: comparison of volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ying; Flynn, P.C.

2004-01-01

We examine electrical power price variability for 14 deregulated markets. Power price volatility is measured by price velocity, the daily average of the absolute value of price change per hour. Deregulated markets show a wide variability in price velocity. Some price velocity is expected and arises from the daily diurnal price pattern, which differs significantly between markets. Even when the expected daily variability in price is removed, the residual unexpected variability differs between markets. Some deregulated markets, most notably Britain and Spain, show patterns that are predictable and consistent and have low values of unexpected price velocity. These markets create a climate conducive to consumers facing the market through real time pricing and shaping consumption behaviors in response to price changes. Other markets, for example, South Australia and Alberta, have patterns that are inconsistent and irregular, and hence are hard for a customer to interpret; a customer in such a market will have a higher incentive to avoid demand side management and escape risk through hedging mechanisms

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

Financial Flexibility in Highly Regulated Market: Indonesian Telecommunication Case during Tariff Pricing War

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Arief Rijanto

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In year 2008, regulation of Indonesian telecommunicationindustries changes due the tariff pricing war within Telecommunication operator. This regulation tie up the telecommunication operator and affect operating revenue margin.The needs of financial flexibility within tele communication firm is increased.Capex, operating revenue and reinvestment needs to be flexible must be inline with competition and change of technology. This paper goals is measuring financial flexibility based on Capex, operating revenue and re-investment needs.Re-investment needs by Telecommunication operator can be financed with or without financial flexibility. Data from year 2007 up to 2014 is selected to accommodate before and after changes of telecommunication regulation. The regulation effect to financial flexibility of telecommunication firm is still relevantbecause telecommunication industries by nature needs larger capital to re-new the telecommunication technology. Real options method will be used to measure financial flexibility.Keywords: Financial flexibility, Price war, Telecommunication Regulation, Real Option

Determination of the Factors That Affect House Prices in Turkey by Using Hedonic Pricing Model

OpenAIRE

Kaya, Aslı; Atan, Murat

2014-01-01

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the marginal effects of various features of the houses on the prices to observe the price changes in the Turkish housing market which follows a heterogeneous pattern. As the second concern, it is aimed to declare the results and additionally to define Turkish housing market and its submarkets which affect the market itself and to calculate the pure price changes of the houses with constant features. Hedonic pricing model is applied on the data o...

Inflation and changes in output and consumer prices of food in Nigeria

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The main objective of this study is to identify relationship between inflation, food production and changes in consumer prices of food in Nigeria. This study was carried out in the context of a macro-econometric model, which recognizes the inter-relationship among inflation and agricultural production. The study covered the ...

FUEL/CARBON PRICE VS. ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGY IN FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugen Ferdinand Spangenberg

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The current situation is the exponential increase in greenhouse gases (GHG, which is mainly caused by industrial and transport activities. The recent Paris agreement in 2015 (Framework Convention on Climate Change COP21, UNFCCC made it clear to everyone that CO2 emissions are to be limited in all areas of life. Alternative fuels with a lower environmental impact than carbon (CO2 emissions are hard to find if the overall footprint is to be taken into account. Nevertheless, there are some fuels that have less impact on climate change. One the other hand, the production of biofuels is a controversial matter, although it is a viable alternative to emissions reduction. CNG or LNG-powered vehicles are also better in terms of environmental pollution, but are hardly better with regard to CO2 impact when a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is carried out. LNG (liquid natural gas, for example, is the future fuel in the maritime sector because of the stricter environmental regulations (SOx,NOx in the shipping industry. The battery-powered vehicle is another example of an environmentally friendly solution. The afore-mentioned measures can be considered as “abatement“ necessary in order to limit CO2 impact. The study shows that there are significant differences in the environmental impact between transport systems and the corresponding drive-system or associated energy base. The polluter should pay, which is a common basic principle in economic research. The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS has been introduced in order to ensure a reduction in CO2 output – emissions come with a price tag. An overall view is necessary, both en-vironmental and economic impact must be reconciled (cf. Spangenberg - TQI. The future viability of the transport system as we know it may change significantly over time if new environmental requirements or e.g. CO2 taxes or ETS are introduced in the freight sector. The abatement of CO2 should be effected primarily through technological

Price smarter on the Net.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

2001-02-01

Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.

Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2011-10-26

Taking a bottom-up approach, this report examines seven primary drivers of wind turbine prices in the United States, with the goal of estimating the degree to which each contributed to the doubling in turbine prices from 2002 through 2008, as well as the subsequent decline in prices through 2010 (our analysis does not extend into 2011 because several of these drivers are best gauged on a full-year basis due to seasonality issues). The first four of these drivers can be considered, at least to some degree, endogenous influences – i.e., those that are largely within the control of the wind industry – and include changes in: 1) Labor costs, which have historically risen during times of tight turbine supply; 2) Warranty provisions, which reflect technology performance and reliability, and are most often capitalized in turbine prices; 3) Turbine manufacturer profitability, which can impact turbine prices independently of costs; and 4) Turbine design, which for the purpose of this analysis is principally manifested through increased turbine size. The other three drivers analyzed in this study can be considered exogenous influences, in that they can impact wind turbine costs but fall mostly outside of the direct control of the wind industry. These exogenous drivers include changes in: 5) Raw materials prices, which affect the cost of inputs to the manufacturing process; 6) Energy prices, which impact the cost of manufacturing and transporting turbines; and 7) Foreign exchange rates, which can impact the dollar amount paid for turbines and components imported into the United States.

Effects of nutrient profiling and price changes based on NuVal® scores on food purchasing in an online experimental supermarket.

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, Leonard H; Finkelstein, Eric A; Katz, David L; Jankowiak, Noelle; Pudlewski, Corrin; Paluch, Rocco A

2016-08-01

The goal of the present study was to apply experimental economic methods in an online supermarket to examine the effects of nutrient profiling, and differential pricing based on the nutrient profile, on the overall diet quality, energy and macronutrients of the foods purchased, and diet cost. Participants were provided nutrient profiling scores or price adjustments based on nutrient profile scores while completing a hypothetical grocery shopping task. Prices of foods in the top 20 % of nutrient profiling scores were reduced (subsidized) by 25 % while those in the bottom 20 % of scores were increased (taxed) by 25 %. We evaluated the independent and interactive effects of nutrient profiling or price adjustments on overall diet quality of foods purchased as assessed by the NuVal® score, energy and macronutrients purchased and diet cost in a 2×2 factorial design. A large (>10 000 food items) online experimental supermarket in the USA. Seven hundred and eighty-one women. Providing nutrient profiling scores improved overall diet quality of foods purchased. Price changes were associated with an increase in protein purchased, an increase in energy cost, and reduced carbohydrate and protein costs. Price changes and nutrient profiling combined were associated with no unique benefits beyond price changes or nutrient profiling alone. Providing nutrient profile score increased overall NuVal® score without a reduction in energy purchased. Combining nutrient profiling and price changes did not show an overall benefit to diet quality and may be less useful than nutrient profiling alone to consumers who want to increase overall diet quality of foods purchased.

Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

2014-05-08

Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

2010-01-01

The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

Appliance Efficiency Standards and Price Discrimination

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spurlock, Cecily Anna [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-05-08

I explore the effects of two simultaneous changes in minimum energy efficiency and ENERGY STAR standards for clothes washers. Adapting the Mussa and Rosen (1978) and Ronnen (1991) second-degree price discrimination model, I demonstrate that clothes washer prices and menus adjusted to the new standards in patterns consistent with a market in which firms had been price discriminating. In particular, I show evidence of discontinuous price drops at the time the standards were imposed, driven largely by mid-low efficiency segments of the market. The price discrimination model predicts this result. On the other hand, in a perfectly competition market, prices should increase for these market segments. Additionally, new models proliferated in the highest efficiency market segment following the standard changes. Finally, I show that firms appeared to use different adaptation strategies at the two instances of the standards changing.

Who is exposed to gas prices? How gasoline prices affect automobile manufacturers and dealerships

OpenAIRE

Silva-Risso, Jorge; Zettelmeyer, Florian; Busse, Meghan R.; Knittel, Christopher Roland

2016-01-01

Many consumers are keenly aware of gasoline prices, and consumer responses to gasoline prices have been well studied. In this paper, by contrast, we investigate how gasoline prices affect the automobile industry: manufacturers and dealerships. We estimate how changes in gasoline prices affect equilibrium prices and sales of both new and used vehicles of different fuel economies. We investigate the implications of these effects for individual auto manufacturers, taking into account differences...

Who is exposed to gas prices? How gasoline prices affect automobile manufacturers and dealerships

OpenAIRE

Busse, Meghan R.; Kittel, Christopher R.; Zettelmeyer, Florian

2012-01-01

Many consumers are keenly aware of gasoline prices, and consumer responses to gasoline prices have been well studied. In this paper, by contrast, we investigate how gasoline prices affect the automobile industry: manufacturers and dealerships. We estimate how changes in gasoline prices affect equilibrium prices and sales of both new and used vehicles of different fuel economies. We investigate the implications of these effects for individual auto manufacturers, taking into account differences...

Integration of Smart Grid Technologies in Households

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis, Freja; Gram-Hanssen, Kirsten

2013-01-01

This article considers the interplay between new smart grid technologies and households everyday practices. The research focuses on how Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Dynamic Pricing influence on Danish households’ everyday life and how these technologies constitutes and change routines and practice...... to a more complex and multiple consideration of the interplay between households’ social practices and new smart grid technologies - and thereby helps to fill out the lack of research on the integration of peak-shaving technologies in the end-user design.......This article considers the interplay between new smart grid technologies and households everyday practices. The research focuses on how Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Dynamic Pricing influence on Danish households’ everyday life and how these technologies constitutes and change routines and practices......, is analysed from the analytical concept offered by the Social Practice Theory. Overall, the case-study demonstrates that the smart grid technologies influence the ‘way of driving’ and changed the temporal patterns of consumption in the families during the test-period. The inquiry attempts to contribute...

Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ahavugimana

(2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-04-01

The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.

Structural changes in the German pharmaceutical market: price setting mechanisms based on the early benefit evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Henschke, Cornelia; Sundmacher, Leonie; Busse, Reinhard

2013-03-01

In the past, free price setting mechanisms in Germany led to high prices of patented pharmaceuticals and to increasing expenditures in the pharmaceutical sector. In order to control patented pharmaceutical prices and to curb increasing pharmaceutical spending, the Act for Restructuring the Pharmaceutical Market in Statutory Health Insurance (AMNOG) came into effect on 1st January 2011. In a structured dossier, pharmaceutical manufacturers have to demonstrate the additional therapeutic benefit of the newly approved pharmaceutical compared to its appropriate comparator. According to the level of additional benefit, pharmaceuticals will be subject to price negotiations between the Federal Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds and the pharmaceutical company concerned (or assigned to a reference price group in case of no additional benefit). Therefore, the health care reform is a first step to decision making based on "value for money". The process of price setting based on early benefit evaluation has an impact on the German as well as the European pharmaceutical markets. Therefore, these structural changes in Germany are of importance for pricing decisions in many European countries both from a political point of view and for strategic planning for pharmaceutical manufacturers, which may have an effect on insured patients' access to pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

2014-12-01

The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

Pricing strategies in inelastic energy markets: can we use less if we can't extract more?

Science.gov (United States)

Voinov, Alexey; Filatova, Tatiana

2014-03-01

Limited supply of nonrenewable energy resources under growing energy demand creates a situation when a marginal change in the quantity supplied or demanded causes non-marginal swings in price levels. The situation is worsened by the fact that we are currently running out of cheap energy resources at the global scale while adaptation to climate change requires extra energy costs. It is often argued that technology and alternative energy will be a solution. However, alternative energy infrastructure also requires additional energy investments, which can further increase the gap between energy demand and supply. This paper presents an explorative model that demonstrates that a smooth transition from an oil-based economy to alternative energy sources is possible only if it is started well in advance while fossil resources are still abundant. Later the transition looks much more dramatic and it becomes risky to rely entirely on technological solutions. It becomes increasingly likely that in addition to technological solutions that can increase supply we will need to find ways to decrease demand and consumption. We further argue that market mechanisms can be just as powerful tools to curb demand as they have traditionally been for stimulating consumption. We observe that individuals who consume more energy resources benefit at the expense of those who consume less, effectively imposing price externalities on the latters. We suggest two transparent and flexible methods of pricing that attempt to eliminate price externalities on energy resources. Such pricing schemes stimulate less consumption and can smooth the transition to renewable energy.

Essays on Pricing of Information Goods and Services

Science.gov (United States)

Lahiri, Atanu

2010-01-01

This dissertation consists of three essays that examine, in three specific contexts, issues related to pricing of information goods and services. As the ability to measure technology resource usage gets easier with increased connectivity, the question whether a technology resource should be priced by the amount of the resource used or by the…

A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

2008-01-01

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, William; Bunn, Derek; Kettunen, Janne; Wilson, Tom

2009-01-01

Carbon pricing is an important mechanism for providing companies with incentives to invest in carbon abatement. Price formation in carbon markets involves a complex interplay between policy targets, dynamic technology costs, and market rules. Carbon pricing may under-deliver investment due to R and D externalities, requiring additional policies which themselves affect market prices. Also, abatement costs depend on the extent of technology deployment due to learning-by-doing. This paper introduces an analytical framework based on marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves with the aim of providing an intuitive understanding of the key dynamics and risk factors in carbon markets. The framework extends the usual static MAC representation of the market to incorporate policy interactions and some technology cost dynamics. The analysis indicates that supporting large-scale deployment of mature abatement technologies suppresses the marginal cost of abatement, sometimes to zero, whilst increasing total abatement costs. However, support for early stage R and D may reduce both total abatement cost and carbon price risk. An important aspect of the analysis is in elevating risk management considerations into energy policy formation, as the results of the stochastic modelling indicate wide distributions for the emergence of carbon prices and public costs around the policy expectations. (author)

The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

2004-01-01

With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

Equity prices, productivity growth and 'The New Economy'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jakob B.; Davis, E. Philip

2006-01-01

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This article establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions......, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence gives strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed...

Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq. An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron, Ken [United States Navy (United States); Schnusenberg, Oliver [Department of Accounting and Finance, Coggin College of Business, The University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224 (United States)

2009-05-15

There has been much speculation about the recent upsurge in crude oil prices and the effect it will have on the economy and business. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock prices of automobile manufacturers. We add an oil price factor, measured alternatively by the excess change in WTI crude oil prices or the excess return on an energy ETF, to the Fama-French three-factor model over the period March 20, 2001 to September 30, 2008. Our dependent variable is the excess return on a price-weighted index of automobile manufacturers. Results indicate that oil prices add value to the pricing model, particularly for manufacturers specializing in SUVs and for a subperiod following the Iraq invasion on March 19, 2003. (author)

Analysis on learning curves of end-use appliances for the establishment of price-sensitivity load model in competitive electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Sung Wook; Kim, Jung Hoon [Hongik University (Korea); Song, Kyung Bin [Keimyung University (Korea); Choi, Joon Young [Jeonju University (Korea)

2001-07-01

The change of the electricity charge from cost base to price base due to the introduction to the electricity market competition causes consumer to choose a variety of charge schemes and a portion of loads to be affected by this change. Besides, it is required the index that consolidate the price volatility experienced on the power exchange with gaming and strategic bidding by suppliers to increase profits. Therefore, in order to find a mathematical model of the sensitively-responding to-price loads, the price-sensitive load model is needed. And the development of state-of- the-art technologies affects the electricity price, so the diffusion of high-efficient end-uses and these price affect load patterns. This paper shows the analysis on learning curves algorithms which is used to investigate the correlation of the end-uses' price and load patterns. (author). 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

Do food and oil prices co-move?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reboredo, Juan C.

2012-01-01

This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

Proceedings: 1996 EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing: Managing the transition to market-based pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-03-01

This report presents the proceedings from the EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing. Topics discussed include: power transmission pricing; retail pricing; price risk management; new pricing paradigms; changes from cost-based to a market-based pricing scheme; ancillary services; retail market strategies; profitability; unbundling; and value added services. This is the leading abstract. Papers are processed separately for the databases

Environmental Policy and Technological Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaffe, Adam B.; Newell, Richard G.; Stavins, Robert N.

2002-01-01

The relationship between technological change and environmental policy has received increasing attention from scholars and policy makers alike over the past ten years. This is partly because the environmental impacts of social activity are significantly affected by technological change, and partly because environmental policy interventions themselves create new constraints and incentives that affect the process of technological developments. Our central purpose in this article is to provide environmental economists with a useful guide to research on technological change and the analytical tools that can be used to explore further the interaction between technology and the environment. In Part 1 of the article, we provide an overview of analytical frameworks for investigating the economics of technological change, highlighting key issues for the researcher. In Part 2, we turn our attention to theoretical analysis of the effects of environmental policy on technological change, and in Part 3, we focus on issues related to the empirical analysis of technology innovation and diffusion. Finally, we conclude in Part 4 with some additional suggestions for research

Oil prices and long-run risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

Testing the price and affordability of healthy and current (unhealthy diets and the potential impacts of policy change in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda J. Lee

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Price and affordability of foods are important determinants of health. Targeted food pricing policies may help improve population diets. However, methods producing comparable data to inform relevant policy decisions are lacking in Australia and globally. The objective was to develop and pilot standardised methods to assess the price, relative price and affordability of healthy (recommended and current (unhealthy diets and test impacts of a potential policy change. Methods Methods followed the optimal approach proposed by INFORMAS using recent Australian dietary intake data and guidelines. Draft healthy and current (unhealthy diet baskets were developed for five household structures. Food prices were collected in stores in a high and low SES location in Brisbane, Australia. Diet prices were calculated and compared with household incomes, and with potential changes to the Australian Taxation System. Wilcoxen-signed rank tests were used to compare differences in price. Results The draft tools and protocols were deemed acceptable at household level, but methods could be refined. All households spend more on current (unhealthy diets than required to purchase healthy (recommended diets, with the majority (53–64 % of the food budget being spent on ‘discretionary’ choices, including take-away foods and alcohol. A healthy diet presently costs between 20–31 % of disposable income of low income households, but would become unaffordable for these families under proposed changes to expand the GST to apply to all foods in Australia. Conclusions Results confirmed that diet pricing methods providing meaningful, comparable data to inform potential fiscal and health policy actions can be developed, but draft tools should be refined. Results suggest that healthy diets can be more affordable than current (unhealthy diets in Australia, but other factors may be as important as price in determining food choices.

Testing the price and affordability of healthy and current (unhealthy) diets and the potential impacts of policy change in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Amanda J; Kane, Sarah; Ramsey, Rebecca; Good, Elizabeth; Dick, Mathew

2016-04-12

Price and affordability of foods are important determinants of health. Targeted food pricing policies may help improve population diets. However, methods producing comparable data to inform relevant policy decisions are lacking in Australia and globally. The objective was to develop and pilot standardised methods to assess the price, relative price and affordability of healthy (recommended) and current (unhealthy) diets and test impacts of a potential policy change. Methods followed the optimal approach proposed by INFORMAS using recent Australian dietary intake data and guidelines. Draft healthy and current (unhealthy) diet baskets were developed for five household structures. Food prices were collected in stores in a high and low SES location in Brisbane, Australia. Diet prices were calculated and compared with household incomes, and with potential changes to the Australian Taxation System. Wilcoxen-signed rank tests were used to compare differences in price. The draft tools and protocols were deemed acceptable at household level, but methods could be refined. All households spend more on current (unhealthy) diets than required to purchase healthy (recommended) diets, with the majority (53-64 %) of the food budget being spent on 'discretionary' choices, including take-away foods and alcohol. A healthy diet presently costs between 20-31 % of disposable income of low income households, but would become unaffordable for these families under proposed changes to expand the GST to apply to all foods in Australia. Results confirmed that diet pricing methods providing meaningful, comparable data to inform potential fiscal and health policy actions can be developed, but draft tools should be refined. Results suggest that healthy diets can be more affordable than current (unhealthy) diets in Australia, but other factors may be as important as price in determining food choices.

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

PRICING OF BT COTTON SEEDS IN INDIA: THE DEBATE BEHIND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anchal ARORA

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In 2006 the state government of Andhra Pradesh reduced the Bt cotton seed prices from Indian Rs1600 to Rs750 in order to make the technology affordable and accessible to small and marginal farmers in the state and also to prevent the monopolistic market structure in the seed market. The drastic reduction in seed prices, on the other hand could affect the profitability of seed providing companies and curb their incentives to innovate in future. Recent literature has also examined the impact of price controls on diffusion of technology, revenue and profitability of seed providers. It suggests that price controls have positively impacted the diffusion of technology in India, and were also successful in increasing the revenue of seed providers in the short run. However, the impact of price controls on profitability would depend on cost conditions. In the light of the above discussion, this article attempts to discuss the debate behind price controls and draws certain policy implications pertaining to pricing of Bt seeds, which has an international policy relevance.

78 FR 69553 - Domestic Competitive Products Pricing and Mailing Standards Changes

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-20

... online intercept request. Retail customers who file their request through usps.com may add extra services... January 2012. The existing Commercial Base prices offer lower prices to customers who use online and other... $15.45. Commercial Base prices offer lower prices to customers who use online and other authorized...

Public Transportation Pricing: An Instructional Module.

Science.gov (United States)

McWha, Charley

A concept-based introduction to public transportation pricing is presented in this instructional module for undergraduate and graduate transportation-related courses for disciplines such as engineering, business administration, and technology. After an introductory section on transportation pricing planning and the history of transportation system…

Pricing decision-making units

OpenAIRE

R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis

2013-01-01

In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.

Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chao, Hung-po

2011-01-01

Facing growing technological and environmental challenges, the electricity industry needs effective pricing mechanism to promote efficient risk management and investment decisions. In a restructured electricity market with competitive wholesale prices and traditionally regulated retail rates, however, there are technical and institutional barriers that prevent dynamic pricing with price responsive demand. In regions with limited energy storage capacity, intermittent renewable resources present special challenges. This could adversely affect the effectiveness of public policies causing inefficient investments in energy technologies. In this paper, we present an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market and use the model in a simulation study for an initial assessment of renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. A key objective of the study is to shed light on the policy issues so that effective decisions can be made to improve efficiency. - Highlights: → Renewable resources present special challenges in regions with limited energy storage capacity. → This paper presents an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market. → A simulation study assesses renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. → The study results inform policy decisions to improve efficient investments in energy technologies.

Dividend policy and share price volatility: UK evidence

OpenAIRE

Hussainey, Khaled; Mgbame, Chijoke Oscar; Chijoke Mgbame, Aruoriwo M.

2011-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between dividend policy and share price changes in the UK stock market. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple regression analyses are used to explore the association between share price changes and both dividend yield and dividend payout ratio. Findings – A positive relation is found between dividend yield and stock price changes, and a negative relation between dividend payout ratio and stock price changes. In a...

Developments in Global Food Prices

OpenAIRE

Vanessa Rayner; Emily Laing; Jamie Hall

2011-01-01

Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from developing countries as per capita incomes rise and consumption patterns change. Rising commodity prices are leading to higher headline consumer price inflation in many countries though, at this stage, core mea...

A sensitivity analysis of process design parameters, commodity prices and robustness on the economics of odour abatement technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

2012-01-01

The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial peak-load pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arellano, M. Soledad; Serra, Pablo

2007-01-01

This article extends the traditional electricity peak-load pricing model to include transmission costs. In the context of a two-node, two-technology electric power system, where suppliers face inelastic demand, we show that when the marginal plant is located at the energy-importing center, generators located away from that center should pay the marginal capacity transmission cost; otherwise, consumers should bear this cost through capacity payments. Since electric power transmission is a natural monopoly, marginal-cost pricing does not fully cover costs. We propose distributing the revenue deficit among users in proportion to the surplus they derive from the service priced at marginal cost. (Author)

Asymmetric Price Effects of Competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lach, S.; Moraga Gonzalez, J.L.

2017-01-01

When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first-order

Asymmetric price effects of competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lach, S.; Moraga González, José

2017-01-01

When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first‐order

Cost-reflective electricity pricing: Consumer preferences and perceptions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Nina L.; Jeanneret, Talia D.; Rai, Alan

2016-01-01

In Australia, residential electricity peak demand has risen steeply in recent decades, leading to higher prices as new infrastructure was needed to satisfy demand. One way of limiting further infrastructure-induced retail price rises is via ‘cost-reflective’ electricity network pricing that incentivises users to shift their demand to non-peak periods. Empowering consumers with knowledge of their energy usage is critical to maximise the potential benefits of cost-reflective pricing. This research consulted residential electricity consumers in three Australian states on their perceptions and acceptance of two cost-reflective pricing scenarios (Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing) and associated technologies to support such pricing (smart meters, in-home displays and direct load control devices). An energy economist presented information to focus groups on the merits and limitations of each scenario, and participants’ views were captured. Almost half of the 53 participants were agreeable to Time-of-Use pricing, but did not have a clear preference for Peak Capacity pricing, where the price was based on the daily maximum demand. Participants recommended further information to both understand and justify the potential benefits, and for technologies to be introduced to enhance the pricing options. The results have implications for utilities and providers who seek to reduce peak demand. - Highlights: •Electricity price rises can be limited by ‘cost-reflective’ pricing. •We consulted residential electricity consumers on Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing. •Understanding of peak electricity demand must increase to enable demand shift. •Interactive website could enable consumers to evaluate pricing options. •Smart meter adoption may increase if voluntary and includes an in-home display.

Technology change priorities influencing competition quality promotion: Case study of Iran Keaton Polyester Manufacturing Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pouria Nour

2012-10-01

Full Text Available In the changing world with various customers’ demands the businesses tend to improve their advantages to beat their rivals by means of better quality, lower prices and so. For Iranian polyester market quality is of crucial importance and is achieved through changing and updating technologies. According to highly regarded model of CAPTECH, which is recommended by UNIDO, technology parameters are defined in each phase and not generally as a whole. In the end the biggest gaps are defined. The main goal is to prioritize the main parameters affecting Iranian polyester company's quality. In order to fulfill our goal, 20 high and medium managers were questioned for this paper. The questions were gathered according to UNIDO samples. After a qualitative and quantitative test we concluded that the biggest gap is for supply chain(56.91 and the lowest gap is for combination phase(43.97.

Wireless network pricing

CERN Document Server

Huang, Jianwei

2013-01-01

Today's wireless communications and networking practices are tightly coupled with economic considerations, to the extent that it is almost impossible to make a sound technology choice without understanding the corresponding economic implications. This book aims at providing a foundational introduction on how microeconomics, and pricing theory in particular, can help us to understand and build better wireless networks. The book can be used as lecture notes for a course in the field of network economics, or a reference book for wireless engineers and applied economists to understand how pricing

Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

German Rodríguez-Iglesias

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Materials and methods. Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues. Results. Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter. Even in a conservative scenario, imulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption. Conclusion. There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.

Carbon prices for the next thousand years

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerlagh, Reyer [Tilburg Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Economics; Liski, Matti [Aalto Univ., Helsinki (Finland). School of Economics

2012-06-15

Climate is a persistent asset, bar none: changes in climate-related stocks have consequences spanning over centuries or possibly millennia to the future. To reconcile the discounting of such far-distant impacts and realism of the shorter-term decisions, we consider hyperbolic time-preferences in a climate-economy model. Time-changing utility discount rates have unexplored general-equilibrium effects: carbon prices exceed the pure carbon externality costs - the Pigouvian tax level - by multiple factors in our quantitative assessment. The climateeconomy model is rich in details but can be solved in closed-form yielding Markov carbon prices dependent on climate system parameters, damage estimates, technology parameters, and both short- and long-term time preferences. The equilibrium time discount rate is endogenous, and it can justify high carbon taxes as advocated by Stern while maintaining the realism of the macroeconomic outcome, thus providing a solution for the dilemma centering the carbon tax-discount rate debate. The welfare ranking of the policy alternatives is unambiguous: enforcing the Pigouvian tax decreases a consistently-defined welfare measure vis-a-vis the Markov equilibrium.

A Study on strengthening demand management of energy price

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seo, Jung Hwan [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

Until 1980s, energy sector had been operated as a monopoly of public enterprises in most countries. Price regulation of government had an influence on energy supply and demand by not fully giving information on market situation (supply and demand). Recently, as energy related technology and information technology have developed, the developed countries including UK and some developing countries could raise efficiency of industry through competitive market by recognizing the limit of government regulation and opening up many sectors of energy industry to the private sector. Korea is also implementing a measure for introducing competition through the participation of private sector into electricity and natural gas industries step by step. If the private sector is participated and competition is introduced, energy price cannot be a policy instrument setting up by the government, so demand management through price regulation is meaningless. Under such circumstances, a policy function should be converted to the direction of promoting competition and increasing market efficiency. In this study, it examines how the government regulation and industry has been changed through the transition of natural gas and electricity industries in UK, USA, and France and then it tries to derive suggestions to Korea. (author). 49 refs., 58 figs., 32 tabs.

Optimal pricing and lot-sizing for perishable inventory with price and time dependent ramp-type demand

Science.gov (United States)

Panda, S.; Saha, S.; Basu, M.

2013-01-01

Product perishability is an important aspect of inventory control. To minimise the effect of deterioration, retailers in supermarkets, departmental store managers, etc. always want higher inventory depletion rate. In this article, we propose a dynamic pre- and post-deterioration cumulative discount policy to enhance inventory depletion rate resulting low volume of deterioration cost, holding cost and hence higher profit. It is assumed that demand is a price and time dependent ramp-type function and the product starts to deteriorate after certain amount of time. Unlike the conventional inventory models with pricing strategies, which are restricted to a fixed number of price changes and to a fixed cycle length, we allow the number of price changes before as well as after the start of deterioration and the replenishment cycle length to be the decision variables. Before start of deterioration, discounts on unit selling price are provided cumulatively in successive pricing cycles. After the start of deterioration, discounts on reduced unit selling price are also provided in a cumulative way. A mathematical model is developed and the existence of the optimal solution is verified. A numerical example is presented, which indicates that under the cumulative effect of price discounting, dynamic pricing policy outperforms static pricing strategy. Sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out.

The Effect of Change in Cattle Price on the Demand for Input and the Supply of Output in the Bali Cattle Fattening Business

OpenAIRE

Rusdianto, Sasongko Wijoseno

2015-01-01

The change in cattle price faced by farmers in the cattle fattening business when buying feeders and selling the beef cattle. This study was aimed to observe the efforts done by the farmers and the solutions that could be suggested. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of cattle price change on the demand for feeders and the supply of cattle which are produced by Bali cattle fattening businesses in West Nusa Tenggara. The results showed that the change of the beef cattle price ...

PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

OpenAIRE

SUCIU Titus

2013-01-01

In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Ulrich; Méndez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

2014-01-01

Reference prices constitute a main determinant of patient health care reimbursement in many countries. We study the effects of a change from an "external" (based on a basket of prices in other countries) to an "internal" (based on comparable domestic products) reference price system. We find...... that while our estimated consumer compensating variation is small, the reform led to substantial reductions in list and reference prices as well as co-payments, and to sizeable decreases in overall producer revenues, health care expenditures, and co-payments. These effects differ markedly between branded...

Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Ulrich; Méndez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

Reference prices constitute a main determinant of patient health care reimbursement in many countries. We study the effects of a change from an "external" (based on a basket of prices in other countries) to an "internal" (based on comparable domestic products) reference price system. We find...... that while our estimated consumer compensating variation is small, the reform led to substantial reductions in list and reference prices as well as co-payments, and to sizeable decreases in overall producer revenues, health care expenditures, and co-payments. These effects differ markedly between branded...

Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Deng, Hao [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Nemet, Gregory [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rai, Varun [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Dong, C. G. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2014-12-15

Solar photovoltaic (PV) system prices in the United States display considerable heterogeneity both across geographic locations and within a given location. Such heterogeneity may arise due to state and federal policies, differences in market structure, and other factors that influence demand and costs. This paper examines the relative importance of such factors on equilibrium solar PV system prices in the United States using a detailed dataset of roughly 100,000 recent residential and small commercial installations. As expected, we find that PV system prices differ based on characteristics of the systems. More interestingly, we find evidence suggesting that search costs and imperfect competition affect solar PV pricing. Installer density substantially lowers prices, while regions with relatively generous financial incentives for solar PV are associated with higher prices.

Nationalist Technologies of Cultural Memory and the Korean War: Militarism and Neo-Liberalism in "The Price of Freedom" and the War Memorial of Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Y. Kim

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This article examines the technologies of nationalism that shape how the Korean War is depicted in two museum and memorial sites: The Price of Freedom: Americans at War, a permanent exhibit at the National Museum of American History in Washington, DC, and the War Memorial of Korea in Seoul. It shows how the use of traditional historical artifacts in The Price of Freedom and cinematic and digital technologies in the War Memorial generate structures of cultural memory that celebrate both a nationalist militarism and the ethos of neoliberalism.

Changes in use of types of tobacco products by pack sizes and price segments, prices paid and consumption following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Scollo, Michelle; Zacher, Meghan; Coomber, Kerri; Bayly, Megan; Wakefield, Melanie

2015-04-01

To describe changes among smokers in use of various types of tobacco products, reported prices paid and cigarette consumption following the standardisation of tobacco packaging in Australia. National cross-sectional telephone surveys of adult smokers were conducted from April 2012 (6 months before transition to plain packaging (PP)) to March 2014 (15 months afterwards). Multivariable logistic regression assessed changes in products, brands and pack types/sizes; multivariable linear regression examined changes in inflation-adjusted prices paid and reported cigarette consumption between the pre-PP and three subsequent periods-the transition phase, PP year 1 and PP post-tax (post a 12.5% tax increase in December 2013). The proportion of current smokers using roll-your-own (RYO) products fluctuated over the study period. Proportions using value brands of factory-made (FM) cigarettes increased from pre-PP (21.4%) to PP year 1 (25.5%; p=0.002) and PP post-tax (27.8%; pIntroduction of PP was associated with an increase in use of value brands, likely due to increased numbers available and smaller increases in prices for value relative to premium brands. Reported consumption declined following the December 2013 tax increase. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Viewpoint On the Climate Change Effects of High Oil Prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vielle, M.; Viguier, L.

2005-11-01

Some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations. The fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies.

Cost and Price Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

described below which relies on questionnaires administered to subject matter experts in both cost analysis and price analysis to determine the value of...additional reports or data that the price analyst used in determining their final negotiated position. The cost analyst section of the questionnaire...an analysis at the individual element level rather than at a total price level to determine the major changes from the awarded contract to the new

The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreyeva, Tatiana; Long, Michael W; Brownell, Kelly D

2010-02-01

In light of proposals to improve diets by shifting food prices, it is important to understand how price changes affect demand for various foods. We reviewed 160 studies on the price elasticity of demand for major food categories to assess mean elasticities by food category and variations in estimates by study design. Price elasticities for foods and nonalcoholic beverages ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 (absolute values), with food away from home, soft drinks, juice, and meats being most responsive to price changes (0.7-0.8). As an example, a 10% increase in soft drink prices should reduce consumption by 8% to 10%. Studies estimating price effects on substitutions from unhealthy to healthy food and price responsiveness among at-risk populations are particularly needed.

Near-term oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, M.C.

2001-01-01

This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

Decoupling the Oil and Gas Prices. Natural Gas Pricing in the Post-Financial Crisis Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanai, Miharu

2011-01-01

This paper looks into natural gas pricing in the post-financial crisis market and, in particular, examines the question whether the oil-linked gas pricing system has outlived its utility as global gas markets mature and converge more rapidly than expected and as large new resources of unconventional gas shift the gas terms-of-trade. Two opposing natural gas pricing systems have coexisted for the last two decades. On the one hand, there is traditional oil-linked pricing, used in pipeline gas imports by Continental European countries and in LNG imports by the countries in Far East. The other is the system led by futures exchanges in deregulated, competitive markets largely in the UK and the US. World gas markets are changing and the basis and mechanisms of price formation are changing with them. There is no reason to expect a revolution in gas pricing, but formulas designed to address the challenges of the 1970's will need to adjust to the realities of the present and expectations for the 21. century. Because such changes will imply a redistribution of costs and benefits, vested shareholders will defend the status quo. But hopefully and ultimately, appropriately regulated markets will assert themselves and shareholders along the entire value chain will have their interests served

Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne (Australia)

2010-01-15

The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

Changes in alcohol consumption following a reduction in the price of spirits: a natural experiment in Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Heeb, Jean-Luc; Gmel, Gerhard; Zurbrügg, Christoph; Kuo, Meichun; Rehm, Jürgen

2003-10-01

To discover what changes in alcohol consumption had occurred in subgroups defined by age, sex, volume of drinking and drinking occasions, following a reduction in the price of spirits in Switzerland in July 1999. Quasi-experimental. Longitudinal general-population survey with baseline 3 months before and follow-up 3 months after price change. Probabilistic telephone sample of 1347 individuals with at least monthly consumption on average in the previous 6 months at both interviews. The response rate at baseline was 74,8% and the attrition rate from baseline to follow-up 20.2%. Alcohol consumption was assessed by means of a beverage-specific graduated-frequency measure. High volume of drinking was defined as 40 + g/day for men and 20 + g/day for women. Binge drinking was defined as six + drinks on an occasion for men and four + drinks for women. Spirits consumption increased significantly (by 28.6%) in the total sample, and specifically in young males and in individuals who were low-volume drinkers at baseline. Consumption of alcohol overall, or of wine or beer, did not change significantly. No indication of effects of substitution was found. Spirits consumption showed price-responsiveness in the early postintervention period. This finding is of particular interest, as (a) the increase in spirits consumption took place at a time of generally declining consumption of alcohol in Switzerland; and (b) in contrast to the findings of most studies, the intervention, namely price reduction, increased availability.

The New Politics of US Health Care Prices: Institutional Reconfiguration and the Emergence of All-Payer Claims Databases.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocco, Philip; Kelly, Andrew S; Béland, Daniel; Kinane, Michael

2017-02-01

Prices are a significant driver of health care cost in the United States. Existing research on the politics of health system reform has emphasized the limited nature of policy entrepreneurs' efforts at solving the problem of rising prices through direct regulation at the state level. Yet this literature fails to account for how change agents in the states gradually reconfigured the politics of prices, forging new, transparency-based policy instruments called all-payer claims databases (APCDs), which are designed to empower consumers, purchasers, and states to make informed market and policy choices. Drawing on pragmatist institutional theory, this article shows how APCDs emerged as the dominant model for reforming health care prices. While APCD advocates faced significant institutional barriers to policy change, we show how they reconfigured existing ideas, tactical repertoires, and legal-technical infrastructures to develop a politically and technologically robust reform. Our analysis has important implications for theories of how change agents overcome structural barriers to health reform. Copyright © 2017 by Duke University Press.

Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States. An application of hidden cointegration technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honarvar, Afshin

2009-01-01

There is a common belief that gasoline prices respond more quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases. Some economists and politicians believe that asymmetry in oil and gasoline price movements is the outcome of a non-competitive gasoline market requiring that governments take policy action to address 'unfair pricing'. There is no consensus as to the existence, or nature, of the asymmetric relationship between prices of gasoline and crude oil. Much of this literature specifies asymmetry in the speed of adjustment and short-run adjustment coefficients. In contrast, Granger and Yoon's [Granger, C.W. and Yoon, G. 'Hidden Cointegration', University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics Working Paper, (2002).] Crouching Error Correction Model (CECM) identifies asymmetry of the cointegrating vectors between components (cumulative positive and negative changes) of the series. Applying the CECM to retail gasoline and crude oil prices for the U.S., we find that there is only evidence of cointegration between positive components of crude oil prices and negative components of gasoline prices. In contrast to the literature which attributes asymmetric price movements to market power of refiners, these findings suggest that gasoline prices -in the long run- are more influenced by the technological changes on the demand side than crude oil price movements on the supply side. (author)

Technological change and social change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janshen, D.; Keck, O.; Webler, W.D.

1981-01-01

Political disputes about the risks and social consequences of modern technologies let many people ask whether society still has an independent capacity to act on the technological change or whether it is not rather the passive object of an obscure development. Modern technology is a challenge not only to the analytical capacity of social sciences. This volume describes the contributions of a conference which took place in April 1979. The first part deals with the social consequences of new technologies. Hereby new communication technologies are the main theme. The contributions of the second part deal with political, organizational, and methodical problems of the sociologic accessory research of technical and social innovations. The texts of the third part analyse experience so far made in the state support of research and technical development. (orig./HP) [de

Internet pricing: una breve rassegna critica (Internet Pricing: A Short Critical Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Sardoni

2001-03-01

Full Text Available In the article, some recent literature on Internet pricing is surveyed. The author looks at the topic by setting it in the more general framework of the analysis of activities that can be regarded as similar to Internet from the technological and economic point of view. In particular, attention is focused on the problem of the divergence between private and social costs when there occurs network congestion and the problem of efficient prices in activities characterized by the existence of peak-loads. The author argues that dealing with such issues in the context of Internet cannot be reduced to a straightforward application of traditional results of welfare economics and the literature on peak-load pricing. In a competitive market with similar features to the market for Internet services, it is well possible that there do not exist incentives that induce firms to adopt price systems such as to prevent and/or eliminate congestion. Further theoretical and analytical developments are then in order.

Pricing of electricity in a time of change - some key issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mostert, W.

1995-01-01

The paper covers four topics: (I) what does full cost coverage mean in the Eastern European power sector, (II) LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) pricing in regulated utilities versus free market prices; (III) limits to the internalization of external costs in fuel pricing, (IV) pricing of IPPs (Independent Power Producer). The paper argues that the tariff which allows full cost coverage in the Eastern European power sector should be defined as the minimum tariff which allows 30% self-financing of investments and a rate of return of at least 5% on invested assets. The appropriate level of self-financing relates to the appropriate capital structure of the company; the rate of return to the ability to attract finance in the long run. During the last twenty years there has been general consensus among power economists that the application of the LRMC pricing principle for the setting of tariffs was the best principle to ensure efficiency on both the demand as well as the supply side. In free markets involving TPA (Third Party Access) and spot markets, that principle can no longer be applied. In times of scarcity, prices will be above LMRC; in times of surplus capacity below LRMC. Economists have argued for years that external costs and benefits have to be ''internalized'' in tariffs and prices in order to provide consumers and investors with the right pricing principles

Prices and Price Setting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.P. Faber (Riemer)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

Poverty and price transmission

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elleby, Christian

A key parameter determining the welfare impact from a world market shock is the transmission elasticity which measures the average domestic response to an international price change. Many studies have estimated price transmission elasticities for a large number of countries but the variation in t...

Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

2006-10-01

Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

Endogeneous price leadership in a duopoly: equal products, unequal technology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dastidar, K.G.; Furth, D.

2005-01-01

In the present paper we study endogenous price leadership in the context of a homogeneous product Bertrand duopoly model in which the firms have different, strictly convex cost functions. In such a framework it is well known that a simultaneous move price choice game does not have an equilibrium in

Price formation and market mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neff, T.L.

1991-01-01

World markets for nuclear fuel have changed greatly since the 1970s. In earlier days, firms specializing in mining, conversion, enrichment and fabrication negotiated directly with end users, primarily under long term contracts at specified prices. This old model is gone. Market structure has been transformed: traditional suppliers now compete with traders, some of whom can offer a much larger menu of products and terms than primary suppliers. Utilities act as traders, converters as brokers, brokers as traders, producers as buyers, and so on. De-enrichment, de-conversion, loans, swaps, interchanges and other new kinds of transactions have proliferated. These changes in market structure and market mechanisms have been accompanied by substantial changes in price formation, that is the process by which market price is set. Today, the level and direction of price are set in a trading dominated spot market environment, fuelled by inventory liquidation and Soviet and other non-traditional supply. (author)

Sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, price trends, and price endogeneity: Evidence from U.S. Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Mark; Alberini, Anna

2016-01-01

Price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature. In this paper, we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the U.S. – the American Housing Survey, Forms EIA-861, and the Residential Energy Consumption Survey. We examine the role of the sample period, level of aggregation, use of panel data, use of instrumental variables, and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock. Our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time. Upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections, we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price. Whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates. We also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates, depending on the dataset used, and that controlling for unit-level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions. Addressing the endogeneity of price and/or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities. Finally, controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity. - Highlights: • The price elasticity of residential electricity demand varies widely across studies. • We use three large datasets from the US to examine reasons for such wide variation. • Some assessed effects include aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, and price trends. • Correcting for such issues can change the estimated price elasticity by 50–100%.

Estimating Price Elasticity of Demand for Motor Fuel in the Transport Sectors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Modeling of long-term forecasts of prices and demand on regional energy markets requires accounting for the future changes in the interactions between the greater economy and its energy sector, along with the possible emergence of new factors and specific regional features determining those interactions. The proposed approach allows the study of a correlation between demand and prices for motor fuel, taking into account the competition of energy carriers, the dynamics of energy prices, resource constraints, the use of new technologies and the uncertainty of input data. The main feature of the proposed approach is the combined estimation of the price elasticity of demand for motor fuel with optimization of fuel supply in the region. Thus the author determined elasticity of demand based on the comparison of economic efficiency of the use of different fuels. The study includes results of experimental calculations and forecasted price according to demand for motor fuel in freight transportation for the expected development conditions of the Far Eastern federal district

Alaska North Slope crude oil price and the behavior of diesel prices in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Raffiee, K.; Ripple, R.

2001-01-01

In this paper we analyze the price dynamics of Alaska North Slope crude oil and L.A. diesel fuel prices. We employ VAR methodology and bivariate GARCH model to show that there is a strong evidence of a uni-directional causal relationship between the two prices. The L.A. diesel market is found to bear the majority of the burden of convergence when there is a price spread. This finding may be seen as being consistent with the general consensus that price discovery emanates from the larger, more liquid market where trading volume is concentrated. The contestability of the West Coast crude oil market tends to cause it to react relatively competitively, while the lack of contestability for the West Coast diesel market tends to limit its competitiveness, causing price adjustment to be slow but to follow the price signals of crude oil. Our findings also suggest that the derived demand theory of input pricing may not hold in this case. The Alaska North Slope crude oil price is the driving force in changes of L.A. diesel price

Price control and macromarketing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kancir Rade

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Price control at macro level is part of integral macro marketing strategic control system, or more precisely, part of social marketing mix control. Price impact is direct, if it is regarded in the context of needs satisfaction, and indirect, within the context of resource allocation. These two patterns of price impact define control mechanism structuring. Price control in sense of its direct impact at process of need satisfaction should comprise qualitative and quantitative level of needs satisfaction at a given price level and its structure, informational dimension of price and different disputable forms of corporate pricing policies. Control of price allocation function is based at objectives of macro marketing system management in the area of resource allocation and the role of price as allocator in contemporary market economies. Control process is founded, on one hand, at theoretical models of correlation between price and demand in different market structures, and on the other hand, at complex limits that price as allocator has, and which make whole control process even more complex because of reduction of the degree of determinism in functioning of contemporary economic systems. Control of price allocation function must be continuous and dynamic process if it is to provide for convergence with environmental changes and if it is to provide for placing control systems at micro marketing levels in the function of socially valid objectives.

Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes Revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munk, Knud Jørgen

Dixit's 1975 paper "Welfare Effects of Tax and Price Changes" constitutes a seminal contribution to the theory of tax reform analysis within a second-best general equilibrium framework. The present paper clarifies ambiguities with respect to normalisation which have led to misinterpretation of some...... of Dixit's analytical results. It proves that a marginal tax reform starting from a proportional tax system will improve social welfare if it increases the supply of labour, whatever the rule of normalisation adopted, and shows that this result provides the key to understanding what determines the optimal...... commodities the insight that the optimal tax system is determined as a trade-off between two objectives: 1) to encourage the supply of labour to the market, and 2), to limit the distortion of the pattern of consumption of produced commodities. This insight cannot be illustrated by simulation studies using...

Internet pricing: una breve rassegna critica (Internet Pricing: A Short Critical Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Sardoni

2012-04-01

Full Text Available In the article, some recent literature on Internet pricing is surveyed. The author looks at the topic by setting it in the more general framework of the analysis of activities that can be regarded as similar to Internet from the technological and economic point of view. In particular, attention is focused on the problem of the divergence between private and social costs when there occurs network congestion and the problem of efficient prices in activities characterized by the existence of peak-loads. The author argues that dealing with such issues in the context of Internet cannot be reduced to a straightforward application of traditional results of welfare economics and the literature on peak-load pricing. In a competitive market with similar features to the market for Internet services, it is well possible that there do not exist incentives that induce firms to adopt price systems such as to prevent and/or eliminate congestion. Further theoretical and analytical developments are then in order.  JEL Codes: L86, L11Keywords: Pricing

78 FR 29785 - Priority Mail Pricing

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-21

... POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. R2013-7; Order No. 1714] Priority Mail Pricing AGENCY: Postal Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commission is noticing a recently-filed Postal... that after the price change, the unused pricing authority available for the Special Services class will...

Price Leadership and Unequal Market Sharing

OpenAIRE

Dijkstra, Peter T.

2014-01-01

We consider experimental markets of repeated homogeneous price-setting duopolies. We investigate the effect on collusion of sequential versus simultaneous price setting. We also examine the effect on collusion of changes in the size of each subject's market share in case both subjects set the same price. Our results show that sequential price setting compared with simultaneous price setting facilitates collusion, if subjects have equal market shares or if the follower has the larger market sh...

Symmetry in farm-retail price transmission: pork in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng

2009-01-01

This study intends to determine the farm-retail price transmission behaviors of pork in Malaysia to serve as a good implication for pork pricing system in Malaysia. Using data from January 1997 to December 2008, both the Houck and ECM approaches were found symmetric where a change in farm price of pork was observed to have similar change in retail price of pork in Malaysia. The price setting system of pork can therefore be further described by the estimated price transmission elasticities whe...

48 CFR 243.204-70-2 - Price ceiling.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Price ceiling. 243.204-70..., DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CONTRACT MANAGEMENT CONTRACT MODIFICATIONS Change Orders 243.204-70-2 Price ceiling. Unpriced change orders shall include a not-to-exceed price. [75 FR 48277, Aug. 10, 2010] ...

International trade, technological change and evolution of work market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacciotti, M.

1999-01-01

The report estimates the historic series of wages and employment depending on the average unit value of importation prices in the most important european countries, Italy, France and Germany for the years 1988-1996. Results shows that in the traditional sectors, with unskilled employment are negative influenced by international trade, otherwise, in the technological advanced sectors, influenced are to be considered positive [it

Effects of pricing policy in traffic and transport. Overview of knowledge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geilenkirchen, G.P.; Geurs, K.; Van Essen, H.P.; Schroten, A.; Boon, B.

2010-05-01

Pricing policies play an important role in transport policy making. The results of pricing policy studies, however, are often debated. This report presents a literature overview of the price sensitivities of transport demand and the effects of transport pricing policies in passenger transport, freight transport and aviation. The study concludes that the demand for passenger and freight transport is typically inelastic; the relative price change is greater than the resulting change in transport demand. Fuel demand for cars, public transport demand and air travel demand are, however, relatively sensitive to price changes. Car use is relatively insensitive to price changes. The demand for road freight is, in contrast to what is often assumed, relatively sensitive to changes in total transport costs. Relatively little empirical evidence is available on the impacts of pricing policies on rail freight transport, shipping and aviation. [nl

Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuper, Gerard H.

This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

Going beyond best technology and lowest price: on renewable energy investors’ preference for service-driven business models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loock, Moritz

2012-01-01

Renewable energy is becoming increasingly important for economies in many countries. But still in an emerging industry, renewable energy requires supportive energy policy helping firms to develop and protect competitive advantages in global competition. As a guideline for designing such policy, we consult well-informed stakeholders within the renewable energy industry: investors. Their preferences serve as explorative indicator for assessing which business models might succeed in competition. To contribute to only limited research on renewable energy investors’ preferences, we ask, which business models investment managers for renewable energy prefer to invest in. We report from an explorative study of 380 choices of renewable energy investment managers. Based on the stated preferences, we modelled three generic business models to calculate the share of investors’ preferences. We find exiting evidence: a “customer intimacy” business model that proposes best services is much more preferred by investors than business models that propose lowest price or best technology. Policy-makers can use those insights for designing policy that supports service-driven business models for renewable energy with a scope on customer needs rather than technology or price. Additionally, we state important implications for renewable energy entrepreneurs, managers and research.

Nodal pricing in a coupled electricity market

OpenAIRE

Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a pricing model for an electricity market with a hybrid congestion management method, i.e. part of the system applies a nodal pricing scheme and the rest applies a zonal pricing scheme. The model clears the zonal and nodal pricing areas simultaneously. The nodal pricing area is affected by the changes in the zonal pricing area since it is directly connected to the zonal pricing area by commercial trading. The model is tested on a 13-node power system. Within the area t...

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milstein, Irena; Tishler, Asher

2011-01-01

This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). In the first stage of the model (game), when only the probability distribution functions of future daily electricity demand and sunshine are known, producers maximize their expected profits by determining the CCGT and PV capacity to be constructed. In the second stage, once daily demand and sunshine conditions become known, each producer selects the daily production by each technology, taking the capacities of both technologies as given, and subject to the availability of the PV capacity, which can be used only if the sun is shining. Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price. Thus, when considering the promotion of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions, regulators should assess the behavior of the electricity market, particularly with respect to characteristics of renewable technologies and demand and supply uncertainties. - Research Highlights: → This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. → We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as CCGT and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). →Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. → A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price.

Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernst Berg

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We investigated the economic dynamics of the German hog-price cycle with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied Nonlinear Time Series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology, and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers.

Behavioural models of technological change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeppini, P.

2011-01-01

Technological change still remains an important driver of the economy. This thesis studies the endogenous forces of technological change stemming from behavioural interactions within populations of many agents. Four theoretical models are proposed that describe consumers’ and suppliers’ behaviour

A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minsuk Kwak

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atil, Ahmed; Lahiani, Amine; Nguyen, Duc Khuong

2014-01-01

In this article, we use the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices. Our approach allows us to simultaneously test the short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the predetermined explanatory variables. It also offers the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative oil price shocks from the asymmetric dynamic multipliers. The obtained results indicate that oil prices affect gasoline prices and natural gas prices in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner, but the price transmission mechanism is not the same. Important policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices is examined. • We use a NARDL model to test for the long-run and short-run asymmetric reactions. • Both gasoline and natural gas prices significantly adjust to changes in the price of oil. • Negative oil shocks have greater effects than positive oil shocks. • Policy implications are discussed

New technological developments in gas processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Draper, R.C.

1996-01-01

The changes that the natural gas industry has undergone over the last few years was discussed. Low natural gas prices forced companies to react to their high reserves replacements costs. They were forced to downsize and undergo major restructuring because they were losing money due to high operating costs; the future for natural gas prices looked pessimistic. The changes have led to a new kind of business practice, namely 'partnering with third party processor', mid-stream companies known as aggregators, to build and operate facilities as part of a move towards cost effective improvements for gas producers. Besides reducing capital and operating costs, the producer under this arrangements can dedicate his capital to finding new gas which is the basis of growth. Recent technological changes in the gas processing industry were also touched upon. These included enhanced technologies such as increased liquid hydrocarbon recovery, segregation of C3+ and C5+, installation of gas separation membrane systems, small sulphur plants, acid gas injection and selective or mixed solvents. Details of some of these technologies were described. 2 refs., 2 figs

Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rulyusa Pratikto

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor. Abstrak Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan dampak dari perubahan harga terhadap kemiskinan, serta juga untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketimpangan inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil yang menarik diperoleh dari analisa pada tingkat provinsi. Pertama, kemiskinan pada provinsi Jakarta memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda. Inflasi pada makanan jadi dan transportasi justru memiliki dampak yang lebih merugikan masyarakat miskin. Kedua, masyarakat miskin yang berada di provinsi dengan tingkat kemiskinan relatif rendah justru lebih sensitif terhadap inflasi. Secara umum, inflasi bahan makanan merupakan faktor terbesar dalam peningkatan kemiskinan. Selain itu, masyarakat miskin telah mengalami total inflasi yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan masyarakat tidak miskin. Kata kunci: Kemiskinan; Inflasi; Elastisitas Harga terhadap Kemiskinan; Pro-Poor Price Index; Price Index for the Poor JEL classifications: E3; I3; O1; R2

Pricing strategies for information goods

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Pricing strategies; information goods; bundling and versioning strategies; ... variety of industries including books, music, entertainment, gaming and education. ... Decision and Information Technologies Department, Robert H Smith School of ...

Price setting in turbulent times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

This price setting survey among Icelandic firms aims to make two contributions to the literature. First, it studies price setting in an advanced economy within a more turbulent macroeconomic environment than has previously been done. The results indicate that price adjustments are to a larger...... extent driven by exchange rate fluctuations than in most other advanced countries. The median Icelandic firm reviews its prices every four months and changes them every six months. The main sources of price rigidity and the most commonly used price setting methods are the same as in most other countries....... A second contribution to the literature is our analysis of the nexus between price setting and exchange rate movements, a topic that has attracted surprisingly limited attention in this survey-based literature. A novel aspect of our approach is to base our analysis on a categorisation of firms...

Pricing Policy and Strategies for Consumer High-Tech Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovleac, L.

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper highlights the complex process of price setting for consumer high-tech products. These prices are highly influenced by some external factors from the economic and social environment. The main objective of this paper is to establish the most effective pricing policies and strategies used by high-tech companies of various sizes. Decisions about price fixing for consumer high-technology products are largely influenced by consumer behaviour, too.

Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jakob Brøchner; Davis, E. Philip

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions...

The substitution bias of the consumer price index

OpenAIRE

Frenger, Petter

2006-01-01

Abstract: The paper uses elementary consumer theory to propose an inflation independent ratio definition of the substitution bias of the Laspeyres consumer price index, and derives an approximate substitution bias which depends on the size of the price change as measured by a norm in the Laspeyres plane and on the elasticity of substitution in the direction of the price change. This norm or distance measure can be interpreted as a price substitution index which yields useful in...

Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayadi, O.F.

2005-01-01

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

The pricing of natural gas in US markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K.

1993-01-01

Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation

Coordinating Multi-Channel Pricing of Seasonal Goods

OpenAIRE

Preetam Basu

2012-01-01

Advancement in information technology has opened new avenues for traditional retailers to expand their operations. Pricing, which has been a critical issue, is more important than ever before as traditional retailers pursue multi-channel sales. In this paper the author studies the pricing problem of a retailer selling a seasonal product simultaneously in a ‘brick and mortar’ store as well as online. Optimal prices are derived and different product-market conditions are determined under wh...

State energy-price system: 1981 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, J.M.; Imhoff, K.L.; Hood, L.J.

1983-08-01

This report updates the State Energy Price Data System (STEPS) to include state-level energy prices by fuel and by end-use sectors for 1981. Both physical unit prices and Btu prices are presented. Basic documentation of the data base remains generally the same as in the original report: State Energy Price System; Volume 1: Overview and Technical Documentation (DOE/NBB-0029 Volume 1 of 2, November 1982). The present report documents only the changes in procedures necessitated by the update to 1981 and the corrections to the basic documentation.

Immigrant language barriers and house prices

OpenAIRE

Fischer, Andreas M.

2011-01-01

Are language skills important in explaining the nexus between house prices and immigrant inflows? The language barrier hypothesis says immigrants from a non common language country value amenities more than immigrants from common language countries.> ; In turn, immigrants from non common language countries are less price sensitive to house price changes than immigrants from a common language country. Tests of the language barrier hypothesis with Swiss house prices show that an immigration inf...

The effects of the vegetable prices insurance on the fluctuation of price: Based on Shanghai evidences

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Chunhong; Li, Huishang; Hao, Shuai; Zhang, Xuebiao; Yang, Wei

2017-10-01

Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of the vegetable price insurance on the fluctuation of prices was analyzed in the article. It was found that the sequence of seasonal fluctuations characteristics of leafy vegetable prices was changed by the vegetable cost-price insurance, the period of price fluctuation was elongated from 12-to-18 months to 37 months, and the influence of random factors on the price fluctuations was reduced in some degree. There was still great space for innovation of the vegetable prices insurance system in Shanghai. Some countermeasures would be suggested to develop the insurance system to better to play the role of insurance and promote the market running more smoothly in Shanghai such as prolonging the insurance cycle, improving the price information monitoring mechanism and innovating income insurance products and so on.

Technology and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, R.; Layzedl, D.; McLean, G.

2002-01-01

This paper was the major one of the opening plenary session at the Climate Change 2 conference. The paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. The paper focusses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of research interests

FTR-option formulation and pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parmeshwaran, Vijay; Muthuraman, Kumar

2009-01-01

Recent changes in electricity markets have advocated the use of Local Marginal Prices (LMP) for congestion management and pricing. From the perspective of market participants, the LMPs pose a risk since they are not known before a transaction on the grid is made. Financial transmission rights (FTR) are instruments that help market participants hedge this risk and are issuable in two flavors - obligations and options. While pricing obligations are much easier, pricing FTR options pose a significant challenge. In this paper we develop a computational method for pricing FTR options. We also discuss the problem of designing financial instrument sets that assure revenue adequacy for the issuer. We point out the difficulty in assuring revenue adequacy when FTR options are present and propose a scheme for overcoming the difficulty. The proposed pricing method can be used to compute prices of options and obligations in the primary market or as a reliable pricing tool to compute option prices in the secondary market. Finally using a test network we present and discuss numerical results. (author)

Technology and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, R.; Layzell, D.; McLean, G.

2001-01-01

This paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. Technology development is one of many approaches to reducing emissions and absorbing GHG from the atmosphere. New technologies will be more successful if they can also achieve non-climate goals, such as better air quality or reduced soil erosion. This paper examines sectors where new technology may be most needed. In general these will be areas where emissions are large, or growing rapidly, or both. It focuses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of the author's own research interests. (author)

Investigating the persistence of earnings components and pricing test of abnormal changes in cash

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaser Ahmadi

2013-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the persistence of earnings components and pricing test of abnormal changes in cash for selected firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The proposed study gathers the necessary data from 166 firms over the period 2004-2012 from firms whose shares were actively traded on TSE market. The study uses Panel data and with the implementation of linear regression technique examines four hypotheses. The results indicate that abnormal negative changes in cash are more persistence than positive abnormal changes. In addition, both positive and negative abnormal changes are more persistence than accruals. Market also has a good perception on abnormal positive and negative changes in cash.

Fast computation of vanilla prices in time-changed models and implied volatilities using rational approximations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pistorius, M.; Stolte, J.

2012-01-01

We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a number of widely used models. In particular, we use the

World coal prices and future energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, J.

1992-01-01

The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

Unit Price Scaling Trends for Chemical Products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qi, Wei [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sathre, Roger [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Morrow, III, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-08-01

To facilitate early-stage life-cycle techno-economic modeling of emerging technologies, here we identify scaling relations between unit price and sales quantity for a variety of chemical products of three categories - metal salts, organic compounds, and solvents. We collect price quotations for lab-scale and bulk purchases of chemicals from both U.S. and Chinese suppliers. We apply a log-log linear regression model to estimate the price discount effect. Using the median discount factor of each category, one can infer bulk prices of products for which only lab-scale prices are available. We conduct out-of-sample tests showing that most of the price proxies deviate from their actual reference prices by a factor less than ten. We also apply the bootstrap method to determine if a sample median discount factor should be accepted for price approximation. We find that appropriate discount factors for metal salts and for solvents are both -0.56, while that for organic compounds is -0.67 and is less representative due to greater extent of product heterogeneity within this category.

Economic assessment of solar and conventional biomass gasification technologies: Financial and policy implications under feedstock and product gas price uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nickerson, Thomas A.; Hathaway, Brandon J.; Smith, Timothy M.; Davidson, Jane H.

2015-01-01

Four configurations of a novel solar-heated biomass gasification facility and one configuration of conventional biomass gasification are analyzed through financial and policy scenarios. The purpose of this study is to determine the potential financial position for varying configurations of a novel technology, as compared to the current state-of-the-art gasification technology. Through the use of project finance and policy scenario development, we assess the baseline breakeven syngas price (normalized against natural gas prices and based upon annual feedstock consumption), the sensitivity of major cost components for the novel facilities, and the implications of policy levers on the economic feasibility of the solar facilities. Findings show that certain solar configurations may compete with conventional facilities on a straightforward economic basis. However, with renewable energy policy levers in place the solar technologies become increasingly attractive options. - Highlights: • We model four solar and one conventional biomass gasification systems. • We assess economic feasibility of these systems with and without policy incentives. • Solar facilities compete with the conventional system in certain scenarios. • Feedstock costs are the largest contributor to system cost sensitivity. • Policy incentives create an economically favorable scenario for solar facilities

Nonlinear price impact from linear models

Science.gov (United States)

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2017-12-01

The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.

Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

2016-01-01

After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

Perpetual American vanilla option pricing under single regime change risk: an exhaustive study

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, Miquel

2009-07-01

Perpetual American options are financial instruments that can be readily exercised and do not mature. In this paper we study in detail the problem of pricing this kind of derivatives, for the most popular flavour, within a framework in which some of the properties—volatility and dividend policy—of the underlying stock can change at a random instant of time but in such a way that we can forecast their final values. Under this assumption we can model actual market conditions because most relevant facts usually entail sharp predictable consequences. The effect of this potential risk on perpetual American vanilla options is remarkable: the very equation that will determine the fair price depends on the solution to be found. Sound results are found under the optics both of finance and physics. In particular, a parallelism among the overall outcome of this problem and a phase transition is established.

A reaction-diffusion model for market fluctuations - A relation between price change and traded volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Yuvan, Steven; Bier, Martin

2018-02-01

Two decades ago Bak et al. (1997) [3] proposed a reaction-diffusion model to describe market fluctuations. In the model buyers and sellers diffuse from opposite ends of a 1D interval that represents a price range. Trades occur when buyers and sellers meet. We show analytically and numerically that the model well reproduces the square-root relation between traded volumes and price changes that is observed in real-life markets. The result is remarkable as this relation has commonly been explained in terms of more elaborate trader strategies. We furthermore explain why the square-root relation is robust under model modifications and we show how real-life bond market data exhibit the square-root relation.

Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

2010-08-01

We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

Pricing the Innovation for Market Introduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dănut Tiberius Epure

2006-10-01

Full Text Available The factors that influence pricing strategy change over the life of a product concept. The market defined by a product concept passes through four phases: development, growth, maturity, and decline. Briefly, the changes in the strategic environment over those phases are as follows: Market development. Buyers are price insensitive because they knowledge of the product’s benefits. Both production and not a threat since the potential gains from market development exceed those from competitive rivalry. Pricing strategy signals the product’s value to potential buyers, but buyer education remains the key to sales growth.

Comment on “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhidong; Song, Yukun; Zhang, Yunliang

2013-05-01

The purpose of this comment is to point out the inappropriate assumption of “3αH>1” and two problems in the proof of “Theorem 3.1” in section 3 of the paper “Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs” by Hui Gu et al. [H. Gu, J.R. Liang, Y. X. Zhang, Time-changed geometric fractional Brownian motion and option pricing with transaction costs, Physica A 391 (2012) 3971-3977]. Then we show the two problems will be solved under our new assumption.

Evaluating the US government's crude oil price projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, M.D.

1992-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) 1991 official long run crude oil price projections are evaluated by comparing parameter averages for the forecast period (1991-2010) to parameter averages from crude oil price history (1859-1990). The parameters used in the evaluation are average price, average annual price changes, and average cycle duration (in years). All prices used in the analysis are annual prices in constant 1990 dollars per barrel. 13 figs

Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

Science.gov (United States)

Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

An Investigation into the Fundamental Drivers of Pricing of Residential Mortgage Products – A Risk Pricing Viewpoint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harry M Karamujic

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Residential mortgage products (also known as home loans pricing has been long understood to be something of a ‘dark art’, requiring judgment and experience, rather than being an exact science. In the last decade, a lot has changed in this field and more and more lenders, primarily the larger lenders, are increasingly looking to make their pricing as exact as possible. Even so, inadequate pricing of residential mortgage products (in particular its substandard risk pricing has been seen as one of major causes of the global financial crisis (GFC and subsequent spectacular banking collapses. The underlying theme of the paper is to exhibit how contemporary lenders, in practice, price their residential mortgage products. While discussing elements of the pricing calculation particular attention was given to the exposition of how contemporary lenders price risks involved in providing home loans. Because of the importance of Basel capital accords to how financial institutions assess and quantify their risks, the paper provides an overview of Basel capital accords. The author envisages that the paper will (i help enhance comprehension of the underlying elements of the pricing calculation and the ways in which these elements relate to each other, (ii scrutinize how contemporary lenders identify and quantify risks and (iii improve consciousness of future changes in interest rates

Price effects on the smoking behaviour of adult age groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Franz, G A

2008-12-01

To provide a cigarette price elasticity reference for adult age groups, and to estimate the smoking behaviour changes in US adults in light of unprecedented state excise tax increases on cigarettes during the 1990s. Individual-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 1993-2000 were merged with state-level cigarette price and tax data. Data were analysed for different age groups using a weighted least squares regression framework. The outcome variables measured were whether an individual was a smoker, whether he/she had tried to quit smoking during the previous year, and how many cigarettes were smoked per day among the total population and among active smokers. This study confirmed previous results that younger individuals are more responsive to price changes than older individuals. Although older age groups are less sensitive to price changes, their smoking behaviour changes are still statistically significant. This study found that while older individuals are less responsive to price changes than younger individuals, their behavioural changes due to cigarette price increases should not be ignored.

Advertising Expenditure and Consumer Prices

OpenAIRE

Ferdinand Rauch

2011-01-01

This paper studies the effect of a change in the marginal costs of advertising on advertising expenditures of firms and consumer prices across industries. It makes use of a unique policy change that caused a decrease of the taxation on advertising expenditures in parts of Austria and a simultaneous increase in other parts. Advertising expenditures move immediately in the opposite direction to the marginal costs of advertising. Simultaneously the price reaction to advertising is negative in so...

Taking the mystery out of gasoline prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2000-01-01

Gasoline price variations in different markets of Canada are primarily driven by market forces, not necessarily by costs, according to a petroleum valuation consultant of the Newfoundland Department of Mines and Energy. Market forces include wholesale prices, the number and efficiency of stations in an area, companies' marketing strategies and customer buying preferences. Prices can be affected by any one of these forces at any time. The prediction is that wholesale prices will continue to be volatile in the next few months as the market adjusts to the changes in crude oil prices determined by OPEC as well as the summer season for gasoline. Changes in crude oil prices are usually reflected in the price of gasoline at the pump, although they do not necessarily move together. Demand which is an important factor in price, is cyclical in both the US and Canada, being lowest in the first quarter of the year, picking up during the second and third quarters with increased driving during good weather, and usually declining again in the fourth quarter with the onset of colder weather. Taxes are also a very significant component of the retail price of gasoline; in July 1998 the combined federal and provincial taxes accounted for 54 per cent of the average retail price of regular unleaded gasoline in Canada. Refining and marketing costs, the distance gasoline has to be transported to market, also influence prices at the pump

Desulfurization technologies for flue gases from power stations, technological and financial characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naumoski, Koce

1997-01-01

Harms on life environment, caused by aero pollution, for the last decades enforced fast development of technologies for filtration of gases that come from thermal power plants and other objects. SO 2 , that appear as one of outputs of fossil fuels combustion, and also processing of sulphide ore, is a main component of acid rains. Acid rains represent one of the most risky factors, responsible for dryne of woods and changing of flora and fauna on land and in water. Starting from 1931 year when on the thermal power plant BATTERSEA STATION, property of London Power, first scrubbers were monnted for filtration of flue gases of SO 2 , and up till today, many procedures are developed for desulfurization of flue gases. For easier coping with numerous technologies for desulfurization , various classifications were made. By state of aggregation of the absorption agent , the technologies for desulfurization of gases are divided in wet , semidry and dry procedures. Wet procedures are technologies with highness rate of desulfurization of 90-95 % and most flexible of the quality of fuel whose flue gases are filtered. Presently they have high price of 90-220 $/kw installed power. According to American sources, their price at the world market is forecasted that till 2000 year will reach price of 100 $/kw. Dry technologies for desulfurization of flue gases are last technologies. The rate of desulfurization is 50-60 % and its prise is 76 -113 $/kw. Their negative side is high variable costs 250 - 388 $/ ton SO 2 (at wet procedures variable costs 76 - 157 $/ton SO 2 ). Semidry technologies by financial and technological characteristics are wet and dry procedures. (Author)

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Circulation Price Elasticity in the Daily Newspaper Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Grotta, Gerald L.; Taylor, Michael Lee

Pricing of subscriptions and single copies has historically been arbitrary. Evidence indicates that the newspaper industry has tended to overestimate the elasticity of demand for newspaper circulation. This study analyzed price changes, circulation changes, and population changes for all daily newspapers in the United States between 1970 and 1975.…

Resistance to Technological Change in Academia

Science.gov (United States)

Moerschell, Linda

2009-01-01

Initiating changes in technology, promoting utilization, and managing resistance by faculty may be among the most pressing challenges for academic leadership. Change that involves new technology is an ideal example of the systemic nature of organizational change because it includes infrastructure, expert knowledge, training, long-term vision,…

The oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alba, P.

2000-01-01

Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysegul Ates

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

The diversification value of nuclear power as part of a utility technology mix when gas and carbon prices are uncertain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, Fabien A.; Nuttall, William J.; Newbery, David M.; Neufville, Richard de; Connors, Stephen

2005-01-01

Despite recent revived interest, the prospects for new nuclear power investment in liberalized electricity industries without government support do not seem promising. The objective of this paper is twofold. First it aims to identify the specific features of nuclear power technology that makes it an unattractive choice. The second objective is to estimate the value to a utility of a nuclear investment as a hedge against uncertain gas and carbon prices. A stylized 5-plant Real Option utility model shows that while the nuclear option value represents about 18% of the net present value (NPV) of the nuclear plant investment in the case where electricity and gas prices are uncorrelated, it reduces to nearly zero for correlation factors between electricity and gas price greater than 30%. These results suggest that the private diversification incentives in electricity markets might not be aligned with the social value of a diverse fuel-mix at the country level. (Author)

Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papapetrou, E.

2001-01-01

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices, real stock prices, interest rates, real economic activity and employment for Greece. The empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment. Oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements. Stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

PERFORMANCE OF ALTERNATIVE COMPONENT PRICING SYSTEMS FOR PORK

OpenAIRE

Brorsen, B. Wade; Akridge, Jay T.; Boland, Michael A.; Mauney, Sean; Forrest, John C.

1998-01-01

One method of implementing value-based marketing is a component pricing system. This research develops and evaluates alternative component pricing systems for pork. Two electronic technologies for estimating carcass components (optical probe and electromagnetic scanner) were evaluated on two sets of data representing different populations. Model accuracy increased as additional components were added.

Price formation and transmission along the food commodity chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Blažková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on analysis of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic, with the distinction on wheat products with low value added (wheat flour, respectively high value added (wheat rolls. The degree of vertical price transmission is measured to identify potential market failures, because asymmetric price transmission can be the result of existence of market power within the food commodity chain. The data basis is made up from monthly prices on partial markets of the analyzed commodity chain published by Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. The monitored time period is from January 2000 till October 2009. The analysis is based on calculation of the price transmission elasticity coefficient (evaluation of price transmission along the chain and the intensity of dependency of positive and negative inter-market price differences (evaluation whether positive or negative price changes are better transmitted among particular vertical markets. Time lag is tested as well. The assessment of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain confirmed the existence of market power especially on the retail stage and low impact of price changes of farm prices on final consumer food prices.

Price, environment and security: Exploring multi-modal motivation in voluntary residential peak demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gyamfi, Samuel; Krumdieck, Susan

2011-01-01

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response projects aim to manage peak demand by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. This research investigates voluntary load shedding in response to information about the security of supply, the emission profile and the cost of meeting critical peak demand in the customers' network. Customer willingness to change behaviour in response to this information was explored through mail-back survey. The diversified demand modelling method was used along with energy audit data to estimate the potential peak load reduction resulting from the voluntary demand response. A case study was conducted in a suburb of Christchurch, New Zealand, where electricity is the main source for water and space heating. On this network, all water heating cylinders have ripple-control technology and about 50% of the households subscribe to differential day/night pricing plan. The survey results show that the sensitivity to supply security is on par with price, with the emission sensitivity being slightly weaker. The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. - Highlights: → Multiple-factor behaviour intervention is necessarily for effective residential demand response. → Security signals can achieve result comparable to price. → The modelling results show potential 10% reduction in critical peak load for aggregate voluntary demand response. → New Zealand's energy policy should include innovation and development of VDR programmes and technologies.

International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods

OpenAIRE

Parantap Basu; Christoph Thoenissen

2009-01-01

Is the relative price of investment goods a good proxy for investment frictions? We model this relative price in a flexible price international economy with two fundamental shocks, namely the total factor productivity (TFP) shock and the investment specific technology (IST) shock. The paper argues that the one-to-one correspondence between investment friction and the relative price of investment goods breaks down in an international economy because of the short run correlation between the ter...

7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Gas prices and price process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenewegen, G.G.

1992-01-01

On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

Technology Education and Societal Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilberti, Anthony F.

1994-01-01

Citizens in a democracy should understand the relationship of technological development to societal change. The rationale for universal technological education stems from the ideals of cultural education, the responsibilities of democratic life, and the need for economic security. Technology education furthers understanding of our technological…

Value analysis for advanced technology products

Science.gov (United States)

Soulliere, Mark

2011-03-01

Technology by itself can be wondrous, but buyers of technology factor in the price they have to pay along with performance in their decisions. As a result, the ``best'' technology may not always win in the marketplace when ``good enough'' can be had at a lower price. Technology vendors often set pricing by ``cost plus margin,'' or by competitors' offerings. What if the product is new (or has yet to be invented)? Value pricing is a methodology to price products based on the value generated (e.g. money saved) by using one product vs. the next best technical alternative. Value analysis can often clarify what product attributes generate the most value. It can also assist in identifying market forces outside of the control of the technology vendor that also influence pricing. These principles are illustrated with examples.

Pass-through of crude oil prices at different stages in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatih Akçelik

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the degree of oil price pass-through to domestic prices at different stages of supply chain in Turkey. Our results, based on vector autoregressive models, point out that the pass-through to domestic motor fuel prices is considerably fast as expected and just one third of a change in crude oil prices is reflected to the motor fuel prices due to the high share of taxes on retail prices. On the other hand, it is shown that impact of oil prices on transport services takes a longer time compared to other domestic prices. Over the 2004–2014 period, estimates suggest that a 10% permanent change in the international crude oil prices is associated with a 0.42 percentage points change in consumer inflation at the end of one year. The final accumulated pass-through to consumer inflation reaches 0.50 percentage points. Moreover, the pass-through to producer prices is nearly twice as much as that to consumer prices. Findings also provide some evidence for a strengthening in oil price pass-through to consumer inflation over time, which might reflect the growing natural gas intensity of the economy.

Endogenous price flexibility and optimal monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Ozge Senay; Alan Sutherland

2014-01-01

Much of the literature on optimal monetary policy uses models in which the degree of nominal price flexibility is exogenous. There are, however, good reasons to suppose that the degree of price flexibility adjusts endogenously to changes in monetary conditions. This article extends the standard new Keynesian model to incorporate an endogenous degree of price flexibility. The model shows that endogenizing the degree of price flexibility tends to shift optimal monetary policy towards complete i...

Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

2018-05-01

With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

75 FR 50847 - Cotton Program Changes for Upland Cotton, Adjusted World Price, and Active Shipping Orders

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-18

... Cotton Program Changes for Upland Cotton, Adjusted World Price, and Active Shipping Orders AGENCY... Assistance Program (EAAP) and clarifying the definition of ``active shipping order.'' DATES: Effective Date... address that matter this rule amends in the payment calculation for semi-processed and reginned motes in 7...

Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feldman, D.; Barbose, G.; Margolis, R.; Wiser, R.; Darghouth, N.; Goodrich, A.

2012-11-01

This report helps to clarify the confusion surrounding different estimates of system pricing by distinguishing between past, current, and near-term projected estimates. It also discusses the different methodologies and factors that impact the estimated price of a PV system, such as system size, location, technology, and reporting methods.These factors, including timing, can have a significant impact on system pricing.

How do electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing, react on changes in the spot price?; Hvordan reagerer stroemforbruket i alminnelig forsyning paa endringer i spotpris?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holstad, Magne; Pettersen, Finn Erik L.

2011-05-15

The purpose of this report is to analyse how electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing will react on changes in the spot price on the basis of monthly data of the period 1996-2010 and an econometric error correction model. General consumption accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total net consumption of electricity in Norway. Households, services and other manufacturing than the power intensive account for the majority of this consumption. In order to estimate the net effect of the spot price on general electricity consumption, it is important to control for other variables that also affect the consumption. Since much of the electricity in general consumption is used for heating, one obvious and important explanatory variable is temperature. In addition to electricity price and temperature we assume that general consumption also depends on economic activity, price on light heating oil, the share of working days in the current month and a summer holiday dummy. In the consumption equation price can not be considered as an exogenous explanatory variable, since consumption affects price and vice versa. Hence, we have added a price equation that can be considered as an inverted supply equation. Both the consumption and the supply equation are specified dynamically in order to allow for slow adjustment of supply and consumption. The two equations of the model are estimated by two stage least square (2SLS). Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is the most efficient estimation method in large samples, but a crucial assumption for consistent FIML-estimation is that the disturbance terms are normally distributed. A Jarque-Bera test of the error terms does not support this assumption in our data. R2 in the consumption equation is high. 96 per cent of the variation in the relative change in consumption is explained. In the price equation R2 is considerably lower. We find that if the spot price for Norway increases by 1 percent from one month

U.S. monetary shocks and global stock prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laeven, L.; Tong, H.

2012-01-01

This paper studies how US monetary policy affects global stock prices. We find that global stock prices respond strongly to changes in US interest rates, with stock prices increasing (decreasing) following unexpected monetary loosening (tightening). This impact is more pronounced for sectors that

Carbon quota price and CDM potentials after Marrakesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wenying Chen

2003-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol sets quantified GHG emission reduction commitments for Annex I Parties. But their emission reduction requirements related to BAU projections, one of the key factors to effect on future carbon market, are uncertain. Both the decisions made in Bonn and Marrakesh would have further consequences for how the future carbon market will take shape. This paper, with application of the carbon emission reduction trading model, evaluates future carbon quota price and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) potentials under different BAU projections, and does sensitivity analysis on carry-over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, implementation rate, transaction cost, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, etc. to assess the impacts of relevant decisions of COP6-bis and COP7 on the carbon market. Under different BAU projections, future carbon quota price and CDM potentials could vary widely. Carry over of AAUs, CERs, ERUs, and holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties could raise both quota price and total CDM potentials considerably. Implementation rate could have big impacts on both carbon quota price and CDM potentials, especially for the cases formerly with relatively high CDM potentials, and it could also change the regional distribution of CDM potentials. Transaction cost's effect on the carbon market would be comparatively low, but would become unignorable in the market whose quota price is low. It would lead to a downward trend in price while upward in CDM potentials when increasing the implementation rate or lowering transaction cost. Withdrawal of USA would dramatically shrink carbon price and credit amount, and large numbers of hot air and sink credits would further greatly crowd out the CDM projects; carry over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, prompt start of CDM projects, etc., would, however, enhance the total CDM credits to ensure more investment and technology flow to developing countries to promote their sustainable development

Carbon quota price and CDM potentials after Marrakesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Wenying

2003-01-01

The Kyoto Protocol sets quantified GHG emission reduction commitments for Annex I Parties. But their emission reduction requirements related to BAU projections, one of the key factors to effect on future carbon market, are uncertain. Both the decisions made in Bonn and Marrakesh would have further consequences for how the future carbon market will take shape. This paper, with application of the carbon emission reduction trading model, evaluates future carbon quota price and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) potentials under different BAU projections, and does sensitivity analysis on carry-over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, implementation rate, transaction cost, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, etc. to assess the impacts of relevant decisions of COP6-bis and COP7 on the carbon market. Under different BAU projections, future carbon quota price and CDM potentials could vary widely. Carry over of AAUs, CERs, ERUs, and holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties could raise both quota price and total CDM potentials considerably. Implementation rate could have big impacts on both carbon quota price and CDM potentials, especially for the cases formerly with relatively high CDM potentials, and it could also change the regional distribution of CDM potentials. Transaction cost's effect on the carbon market would be comparatively low, but would become unignorable in the market whose quota price is low. It would lead to a downward trend in price while upward in CDM potentials when increasing the implementation rate or lowering transaction cost. Withdrawal of USA would dramatically shrink carbon price and credit amount, and large numbers of hot air and sink credits would further greatly crowd out the CDM projects; carry over of AAUs, CERs and ERUs, holding of CERs in Non-Annex I Parties, prompt start of CDM projects, etc., would, however, enhance the total CDM credits to ensure more investment and technology flow to developing countries to promote their sustainable development

Correlations between energy economy and housing market prices in the EU-impacts on future sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maassen Maria Alexandra

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The global economic system is facing multiple challenges in terms of social development, technology and innovation, as well as sustainability needs. As a result, the value of existing assets is changing globally depending on the scarcity, necessity and effects on the business field leading to increased prices of traditional sources of energy and increased competition in the economic field. Thus, the EU energy market has progressed in reducing its dependence on external energy sourcing, by increasing production of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, as well as by further integration of the electric grid. Based on the Pearson coefficient this article intends to research the correlations between the economic, energy and house prices in recent years and the future possible impacts depending on their evolution. For example, gas prices in the past decade increasing household costs in most countries due to the dependence on third parties for energy, lead to the need of increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption, which have consequently decreased electricity prices since 2008. However, this development has still not solved the additional costs issue of households due to the new technologies implemented although wind and solar energy receive in general low margins. Such energy issues, as well as the increased housing prices after the financial crisis in 2008 have caused on their own an additional burden on the economy and households spending income in the next years following.

Immigration, Real Estate Prices and the Consumption Decisions of Native Households

OpenAIRE

Adams, Zeno; Blickle, Kristian

2016-01-01

Since house prices govern the consumption decisions of renters and owners alike, changing house prices can have far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. We analyze how the disposable income and consumption decisions of households are affected by exogenous house price changes in Switzerland. We look at consumption of both housing and non-durable goods to establish a comprehensive picture. We ensure that our house price variation is exogenous by instrumenting house prices with origin-shift immi...

Natural gas pricing: concepts and international overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gorodicht, Daniel Monnerat [Gas Energy, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Veloso, Luciano de Gusmao; Fidelis, Marco Antonio Barbosa; Mathias, Melissa Cristina Pinto Pires [Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis (ANP), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2012-07-01

The core of this article is a critical analysis of different forms of pricing of natural gas existing in the world today. This paper is to describe the various scenarios of natural gas price formation models. Along the paper, the context is emphasized by considering their cases of applications and their results. Today, basically, there are three main groups of models for natural gas pricing: i) competition gas-on-gas, i.e., a liberalized natural gas market, II) gas indexed to oil prices or its products and III) bilateral monopolies and regulated prices. All the three groups of models have relevant application worldwide. Moreover, those are under dynamic influence of economic, technological and sociopolitical factors which bring complexity to the many existing scenarios. However, at first this paper builds a critical analysis of the international current situation of natural gas today and its economic relevance. (author)

Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, X [ed.; UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark); Clements, R; Quezada, A; Torres, J [Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru); Haggar, J [Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom)

2011-08-15

This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

Monitoring of Monthly Price Changes of Cultured Fishes in Sinop Province Between 2012 and 2013

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Birol Baki

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the monthly price changes of cultured fish which were offered for sale in retail fish outlets in Sinop, Turkey. The fish enterprises were determined by stratified sampling method. The enterprises were grouped as I (the most, II (moderate and III (the least according to the amount of their sales. Each group was represented by two different fish enterprises. During the study, prices of the same fish species were obtained twice a month at the same time of the day and the data were calculated as average ± SD. The differences between the groups were determined by one-way variance analysis (ANOVA and the price relation level between species was evaluated by the correlation analysis using IBM SPSS 21 Statisticssoftware. It was determined that sea bream (Sparus aurata, sea bass (Dicentrarhus labrax, rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss (portion size and kilos and salmon (Salmo salar (import were offered for sale in fish markets as cultured fish species. These species were sold during the fishing ban period (April-August. They were also sold starting from September when the fishing ban period ended up and the fishery products were at their lowest. For all the species, the differences between the pricesice were not significant between the sampled enterprises. The average values of the current prices were higher than that of 2008-2013 period. A negative strong relation was determined between the rainbow trout and the salmon.

DTU climate change technologies. Recommendations on accelerated development and deployment of climate change technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Hans; Halsnaes, K [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, System Analysis Div., Roskilde (Denmark); Nielsen, Niels Axel; Moeller, J S; Hansen, Jakob Fritz; Froekjaer Strand, I [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2009-09-15

During 2009, the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) has held a number of international workshops for climate change. Participants came from industry, research institutions and government. The workshops focused on sustainable energy systems and climate change adaptation. The summary of conclusions and recommendations from the workshops constitutes a comprehensive set of technology tracks and recommended actions towards accelerated development and deployment of technology within these two key areas. The workshop process has led to three main conclusions. A. Radical changes are needed to develop sustainable energy systems. B. Tools and processes that climate-proof societal planning and management are needed in order to adapt to climate change. C. Partnerships concerning innovation and deployment (research, development and deployment) are required to meet time constraints.

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

Do stock prices drive people crazy?

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

2015-03-01

This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Joint pricing, inventory, and preservation decisions for deteriorating items with stochastic demand and promotional efforts

Science.gov (United States)

Soni, Hardik N.; Chauhan, Ashaba D.

2018-03-01

This study models a joint pricing, inventory, and preservation decision-making problem for deteriorating items subject to stochastic demand and promotional effort. The generalized price-dependent stochastic demand, time proportional deterioration, and partial backlogging rates are used to model the inventory system. The objective is to find the optimal pricing, replenishment, and preservation technology investment strategies while maximizing the total profit per unit time. Based on the partial backlogging and lost sale cases, we first deduce the criterion for optimal replenishment schedules for any given price and technology investment cost. Second, we show that, respectively, total profit per time unit is concave function of price and preservation technology cost. At the end, some numerical examples and the results of a sensitivity analysis are used to illustrate the features of the proposed model.

The impact of intermittently renewable energy on Italian wholesale electricity prices: Additional benefits or additional costs?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gullì, Francesco; Balbo, Antonio Lo

2015-01-01

Most studies of the literature find that the development of renewable energy sources determines a decrease in the wholesale prices. Some authors use this finding to state that the current subsidies for renewable technologies cannot be considered as excessive. By carrying out a hybrid analysis (both simulation and ex-post empirical analyses) of the case of photovoltaic energy in Italy, this article demonstrates that this result cannot be generalised. Under market power, an increase in PV production can provide benefits in terms of a wholesale price decrease only beyond a specific threshold and especially if combined with other effects. Otherwise, it is likely that PV development could imply an increase in prices. Therefore, on the one hand, caution is necessary when using the estimated change in wholesale prices to evaluate the net cost for consumers of the supporting policies for renewables: either the simulation-based models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading. On the other hand, if 'decarbonisation' is the main objective, the energy policies should be designed in order to assure a deep and balanced penetration of the clean technologies, regardless of their estimated transitory impact on wholesale prices (and in the meantime reviewing the organisation of power markets). -- Highlights: •We use a hybrid analysis based on a combined approach (both simulation and ex-post empirical analyses). •There is a critical threshold of RES penetration within which prices may increase. •Price increases are more likely with PV rather than with wind power. •Either the simulation models or the full empirical analyses may be misleading. •Caution is necessary when using the results of these analyses for policy decisions

Welfare and distribution effects of water pricing policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijs, A.J.W.

2007-01-01

In this paper, distribution and welfare effects of changes in block price systems are evaluated. A method is discussed to determine, for a Marshallian demand function, equivalent variation in case of a block price system. The method is applied to analyze welfare and distribution effects of changing

Oil Price and Economic Resilience. Romania’s Case

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Monica Dudian

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The emerging economies that do not face fiscal, monetary and foreign debt pressures can use the savings generated by lower oil prices for investments in order to generate economic growth. Hence, there is no doubt that the oil price affects the economy’s resilience to shocks. The importance of this impact derives from the magnitude of the price change and its diffusion within the economy. Moreover, the sustainability of any company and of the economy as a whole is subject to the availability and the price of the energy resources. The cost of these resources is an important variable used in the majority of the models regarding the assessment of sustainable development. Therefore, this article examines the impact of the oil price changes on industrial production in Romania. We found that, similar to other countries, in Romania, the growth rate of industrial production responds more strongly to a rise in oil prices. Thus, the oil Brent price has an asymmetric effect on the production evolution. This finding suggests that macroeconomic stabilization is more difficult to achieve when the oil price rises.

Innovations in Statistical Observations of Consumer Prices

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Olga Stepanovna Oleynik

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes the innovative changes in the methodology of statistical surveys of consumer prices. These changes are reflected in the “Official statistical methodology for the organization of statistical observation of consumer prices for goods and services and the calculation of the consumer price index”, approved by order of the Federal State Statistics Service of December 30, 2014 no. 734. The essence of innovation is the use of mathematical methods in determining the range of studies objects of trade and services, in calculating the sufficient observable price quotes based on price dispersion, the proportion of the observed product (service, a representative of consumer spending, as well as the indicator of the complexity of price registration. The authors analyzed the mathematical calculations of the required number of quotations for observation in the Volgograd region in 2016, the results of calculations are compared with the number of quotes included in the monitoring. The authors believe that the implementation of these mathematical models allowed to substantially reduce the influence of the subjective factor in the organization of monitoring of consumer prices, and therefore to increase the objectivity of the resulting statistics on consumer prices and inflation. At the same time, the proposed methodology needs further improvement in terms of payment for goods, products (services by representatives having a minor share in consumer expenditure.

Does drug price-regulation affect healthcare expenditures?

Science.gov (United States)

Ben-Aharon, Omer; Shavit, Oren; Magnezi, Racheli

2017-09-01

Increasing health costs in developed countries are a major concern for decision makers. A variety of cost containment tools are used to control this trend, including maximum price regulation and reimbursement methods for health technologies. Information regarding expenditure-related outcomes of these tools is not available. To evaluate the association between different cost-regulating mechanisms and national health expenditures in selected countries. Price-regulating and reimbursement mechanisms for prescription drugs among OECD countries were reviewed. National health expenditure indices for 2008-2012 were extracted from OECD statistical sources. Possible associations between characteristics of different systems for regulation of drug prices and reimbursement and health expenditures were examined. In most countries, reimbursement mechanisms are part of publicly financed plans. Maximum price regulation is composed of reference-pricing, either of the same drug in other countries, or of therapeutic alternatives within the country, as well as value-based pricing (VBP). No association was found between price regulation or reimbursement mechanisms and healthcare costs. However, VBP may present a more effective mechanism, leading to reduced costs in the long term. Maximum price and reimbursement mechanism regulations were not found to be associated with cost containment of national health expenditures. VBP may have the potential to do so over the long term.

Fruit and Vegetable Prices and Perceptions in Mercalaspalmas Wholesale Market

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Santiago Rodríguez-Feijoó

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the behavior of fruit and vegetable prices in a wholesale market. Its aims are: a to examine price behavior and changes; and b to identify statistically significant factors in the perception of prices and to quantify the effect of these factors on the market price. For this purpose, daily data were obtained on modal prices at the Mercalaspalmas wholesale market from 2006 until mid-2010. The results obtained show there is a similar degree of flexibility in price increases and decreases, and show the product to be the determinant element in setting prices. There was found to be a strong degree of price permanence, in the sense that changes take place slowly and following a lag. The following significant factors were identified in the perception of prices: the length of time a price has remained unchanged in the market; the period during which a product has been absent from the market; the quantities traded at a given price; and the index of market prices. However, the quantitative effect of this body of factors on the perceived price is very limited.