Utility of the General Ability Index (GAI) and Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) with Survivors of Pediatric Brain Tumors: Comparison to Full Scale IQ and Premorbid IQ Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Kahalley, Lisa S.; Winter-Greenberg, Amanda; Stancel, Heather; Ris, M. Douglas; Gragert, Marsha

2016-01-01

Introduction Pediatric brain tumor survivors are at risk for working memory and processing speed impairment. The General Ability Index (GAI) provides an estimate of intellectual functioning that is less influenced by working memory and processing speed than a Full Scale IQ (FSIQ). The Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) provides a measure of efficient information processing derived from working memory and processing speed tasks. We examined the utility of the GAI and CPI to quantify neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of pediatric brain tumor survivors. Methods GAI, CPI, and FSIQ scores from the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) were examined for 57 pediatric brain tumor survivors (ages 6–16) treated with cranial radiation therapy (RT). Results GAI scores were higher than FSIQ and CPI scores, both p < .001. Lower CPI scores were associated with history of craniospinal irradiation and time since RT. Lower FSIQ and GAI scores were associated with higher RT dose and time since RT. The rate of clinically significant GAI-FSIQ discrepancies in our sample was greater than observed in the WISC-IV standardization sample, p < .001. Estimated premorbid IQ scores were higher than GAI, p < .01, and FSIQ scores, p < .001. Conclusions Pediatric brain tumor survivors exhibit weaker cognitive proficiency than expected for age, while general reasoning ability remains relatively spared. The GAI may be useful to quantify the intellectual potential of a survivor when appropriate accommodations are in place for relative cognitive proficiency weaknesses. The CPI may be a particularly sensitive outcome measure of treatment-related cognitive change in this population. PMID:27295192

Method for Developing Descriptions of Hard-to-Price Products: Results of the Telecommunications Product Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conrad, F.; Tonn, B.

1999-05-01

This report presents the results of a study to test a new method for developing descriptions of hard-to-price products. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for collecting data to estimate price indices such as the Consumers Price Index (BLS) is responsible for collecting data to estimate price indices such as the Consumers Price Index (CPI). BLS accomplishes this task by sending field staff to places of business to price actual products. The field staff are given product checklists to help them determine whether products found today are comparable to products priced the previous month. Prices for non-comparable products are not included in the current month's price index calculations. A serious problem facing BLS is developing product checklists for dynamic product areas, new industries, and the service sector. It is difficult to keep checklists up-to-date and quite often simply to develop checklists for service industry products. Some people estimates that upwards of 50 % of US economic activity is not accounted for in the CPI

Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1976 Supplement.

Science.gov (United States)

Halstead, Kent D.

The 1976 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1976. The basic study, "Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes" (ED 123 996) presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. Indexes are presented for research and development,…

Macro economy, stock market and oil prices. Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filis, George

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market. (author)

News impact for Turkish food prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meltem Chadwick

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Asymmetric volatility is a widely encountered concept particularly in financial series. It refers to the case that “bad news” generates more volatility than “good news” of equal magnitude. In an inflationary environment “bad news” is disclosed as increasing inflation that is expected to generate higher volatility. The present article examines whether unexpected price changes affect the volatility of prices asymmetrically for 90 retail food items of the Turkish consumer price index. These 90 food items have a weight of approximately 20 percent in headline consumer price index (CPI. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH model to extract asymmetric volatility, using monthly data between January 2003 and January 2017. Our results reveal that volatility of food prices respond asymmetrically to unexpected price shocks for 62 percent of the retail food items.

A Proposed Legislative Bill to Economically Index the Small Purchase Thresholds Within the Federal Government Procurement System

Science.gov (United States)

1990-12-01

to others. IF, For example, avocados are two dollars each, a consumer may choose to have cucumber, at twenty-Five cents each, in his salad instead...in 1986, after the revision of the home ownership aspect of the CPI in 1983. The CPI is a Familiar index and despite its overly general market basket...loans by the government to enable producers to continue to produce items whose market price is less than the production price. In other words, commodity

Entropy correlation distance method. The Euro introduction effect on the Consumer Price Index

Science.gov (United States)

Miśkiewicz, Janusz

2010-04-01

The idea of entropy was introduced in thermodynamics, but it can be used in time series analysis. There are various ways to define and measure the entropy of a system. Here the so called Theil index, which is often used in economy and finance, is applied as it were an entropy measure. In this study the time series are remapped through the Theil index. Then the linear correlation coefficient between the remapped time series is evaluated as a function of time and time window size and the corresponding statistical distance is defined. The results are compared with the the usual correlation distance measure for the time series themselves. As an example this entropy correlation distance method (ECDM) is applied to several series, as those of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in order to test some so called globalisation processes. Distance matrices are calculated in order to construct two network structures which are next analysed. The role of two different time scales introduced by the Theil index and a correlation coefficient is also discussed. The evolution of the mean distance between the most developed countries is presented and the globalisation periods of the prices discussed. It is finally shown that the evolution of mean distance between the most developed countries on several networks follows the process of introducing the European currency - the Euro. It is contrasted to the GDP based analysis. It is stressed that the entropy correlation distance measure is more suitable in detecting significant changes, like a globalisation process than the usual statistical (correlation based) measure.

The downs and ups of the consumer price index in Argentina: From National Statistics to Big Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Celia Lury

2014-07-01

Full Text Available On the 5th of February 2007, the Institute of National Statistics and Census in Argentina (INDEC released a press statement, giving a percentage figure for that month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-GBA. Since the announcement, this number and its subsequent variations have been at the centre of a national and international political, legal and technical controversy. The legitimacy of the numerical value of the percentage has been called into question by a range of actors and has been challenged by the emergence of multiple alternative indicators of inflation. We explore this methodological controversy through the lens of statactivism. We do not describe the controversy in its entirety, but, rather, enter the controversy to develop a comparison of the procedures informing the production of the CPI as a national statistic with those informing its production as a big data number. In both cases, we explore the way in which price is produced as an indicator. In doing so we draw attention to the significance of calculative infrastructures as ubiquitous, multi-layered processes of connectivity, that have the capacity to make surfaces, to draw lines and boundaries, and to enable particular economic and political activities to unfold in multiple and specific ways. We argue that the capacity to connect, to attach and detach, that is immanent to such infrastructures configures price as an indicator in particular ways, and in doing so help make what we call state space, a term which we use to draw attention to how specific configurations of connectivity in the calculative infrastructure enacts a space of possibility for statactivism

A Countrywide House Price Index for 152 Years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lunde, Jens; Helding Madsen, Anders; Lundbæk Laursen, Maria

for Herengracht (the Netherlands), Norway, USA, France, and recently also Australia. Until now, the here presented house price index for Denmark is the longest countrywide house price index ever been published, based on official data, and qualitatively probably the best long house price index....... in house prices is depicted. The Danish house price index covering all the 152 years is in reality a simple average sale price index for houses. From 1920 on it was possible to construct another and a “pure” house price index, based on the Sales Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method. Several challenges...... for creating the house price index arose, especially in converting the previous registered house prices in the statistics into current market prices. In real terms, the average sale price index increased more than the SPAR index for the years where the two indices were compared, and the difference express...

11 CFR 110.17 - Price index increase.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Price index increase. 110.17 Section 110.17... PROHIBITIONS § 110.17 Price index increase. (a) Price index increases for party committee expenditure... 11 CFR 109.32 and 110.8 shall be increased by the percent difference between the price index, as...

List prices vs. bargain prices: which solution to estimate consumer price indices?

OpenAIRE

Carlo De Gregorio

2010-01-01

Alternative approaches to CPI surveys are here evaluated, in markets where final prices are based on some sort of price listing. Three types of surveys are compared: local surveys (LOC), with small samples and a local price collection; list price surveys (LIS), with huge samples and centralised collection; mixed surveys (MXD), in which LOC and LIS are jointly used. Based on a multiplicative pricing model, some conditions are derived to establish the relative efficiency of these approaches. Th...

Comparison of simple additive weighting (SAW) and composite performance index (CPI) methods in employee remuneration determination

Science.gov (United States)

Karlitasari, L.; Suhartini, D.; Benny

2017-01-01

The process of determining the employee remuneration for PT Sepatu Mas Idaman currently are still using Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet where in the spreadsheet there is the value of criterias that must be calculated for every employee. This can give the effect of doubt during the assesment process, therefore resulting in the process to take much longer time. The process of employee remuneration determination is conducted by the assesment team based on some criterias that have been predetermined. The criteria used in the assessment process are namely the ability to work, human relations, job responsibility, discipline, creativity, work, achievement of targets, and absence. To ease the determination of employee remuneration to be more efficient and effective, the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method is used. SAW method can help in decision making for a certain case, and the calculation that generates the greatest value will be chosen as the best alternative. Other than SAW, also by using another method was the CPI method which is one of the calculating method in decision making based on performance index. Where SAW method was more faster by 89-93% compared to CPI method. Therefore it is expected that this application can be an evaluation material for the need of training and development for employee performances to be more optimal.

CPI Bias in Korea

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Chul Chung

2007-12-01

Full Text Available We estimate the CPI bias in Korea by employing the approach of Engel’s Law as suggested by Hamilton (2001. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the bias using Korean panel data, Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS. Following Hamilton’s model with non­linear specification correction, our estimation result shows that the cumulative CPI bias over the sample period (2000-2005 was 0.7 percent annually. This CPI bias implies that about 21 percent of the inflation rate during the period can be attributed to the bias. In light of purchasing power parity, we provide an interpretation of the estimated bias.

The Changing Cost of Performing Agricultural Research: An Index Approach

OpenAIRE

Murphy, Joseph W.; Kaldor, Donald R.

1981-01-01

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of dollars in every budget in our society. Budgets of agricultural research organizations have been no exception. Inflation has been defined as an increase in the average of prices {I}. A popular indicator of the rate of inflation is the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (cpr) {2}, The CPI is intended to apply to consumer purchases, yet the concept implies that a similar indicator of the annual percentage change in prices of inputs purc...

Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gao Lu Zou

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

Price Discovery Function of Index Futures in China: Evidence from Daily Closing Prices

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SHIQING; XIE; JIAJUN; HUANG

2013-01-01

Price discovery is one of the main functions of stock index futures.Using the daily closing prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures from April 2010 to April 2012,this paper applies a vector error correction model(VECM)and an impulse response function to conduct an empirical analysis on the price discovery function of index futures in China.This paper has the following four findings:(1)a solid cointegration relationship between the CSI 300 index and its index futures exists in the long run;(2)when prices deviate from the longterm equilibrium,the stock index reverses weakly,while the reversal of index futures is much stronger;(3)the daily lead-lag relationship between the prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures contracts is not significant in the short run;()shocks from the spot market have a lasting impact upon the futures market,but not vice versa,due to the limited short-term adjustment ability of the spot market.

Pricing of temperature index insurance

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Che Mohd Imran Che Taib

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study pricing of weather insurance contracts based on temperature indices. Three different pricing methods are analysed: the classical burn approach, index modelling and temperature modelling. We take the data from Malaysia as our empirical case. Our results show that there is a significant difference between the burn and index pricing approaches on one hand, and the temperature modelling method on the other. The latter approach is pricing the insurance contract using a seasonal autoregressive time series model for daily temperature variations, and thus provides a precise probabilistic model for the fine structure of temperature evolution. We complement our pricing analysis by an investigation of the profit/loss distribution from the contract, in the perspective of both the insured and the insurer.

AlzhCPI: A knowledge base for predicting chemical-protein interactions towards Alzheimer's disease.

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Jiansong Fang

Full Text Available Alzheimer's disease (AD is a complicated progressive neurodegeneration disorder. To confront AD, scientists are searching for multi-target-directed ligands (MTDLs to delay disease progression. The in silico prediction of chemical-protein interactions (CPI can accelerate target identification and drug discovery. Previously, we developed 100 binary classifiers to predict the CPI for 25 key targets against AD using the multi-target quantitative structure-activity relationship (mt-QSAR method. In this investigation, we aimed to apply the mt-QSAR method to enlarge the model library to predict CPI towards AD. Another 104 binary classifiers were further constructed to predict the CPI for 26 preclinical AD targets based on the naive Bayesian (NB and recursive partitioning (RP algorithms. The internal 5-fold cross-validation and external test set validation were applied to evaluate the performance of the training sets and test set, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC for the test sets ranged from 0.629 to 1.0, with an average of 0.903. In addition, we developed a web server named AlzhCPI to integrate the comprehensive information of approximately 204 binary classifiers, which has potential applications in network pharmacology and drug repositioning. AlzhCPI is available online at http://rcidm.org/AlzhCPI/index.html. To illustrate the applicability of AlzhCPI, the developed system was employed for the systems pharmacology-based investigation of shichangpu against AD to enhance the understanding of the mechanisms of action of shichangpu from a holistic perspective.

5 CFR 591.209 - What is a price index?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What is a price index? 591.209 Section... Allowances § 591.209 What is a price index? (a) The price index is the COLA area price divided by the DC area... case of the final index, OPM rounds the index to two decimal places. ...

Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia

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Šoškić Dejan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.

Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

2010-01-01

In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

7 CFR 5.1 - Parity index and index of prices received by farmers.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Parity index and index of prices received by farmers... § 5.1 Parity index and index of prices received by farmers. (a) The parity index and related indices... farmers, interest, taxes, and farm wage rates, as revised May 1976 and published in the May 28, 1976, and...

A history of prices in Canada, 1840-1871: a new wholesale price index

OpenAIRE

Donald G. Paterson; Ronald A. Shearer

2003-01-01

We present a new monthly wholesale price index for Canada, 1840-71, comparing fluctuations in the Canadian macroeconomy with fluctuations in similar U.S. and British indexes. Canadian prices move through distinct phases: the 1840s rise in prices and the decline in the depression of 1848-49; the mid-century economic boom and the 1857 depression; U.S. Civil War inflation and apparent Canadian price insulation through a flexible exchange rate created by U.S. withdrawal from gold; and the non-inf...

Performance Analysis of Indonesia’s Mining Sector Price Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hastra Reza Satyatama

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Subprime mortage’s crisis in United States 2008 giving effect to the global capital markets especially the stock price index of the mining sector Indonesia. This research analyzes the effect of BI Rate, exchange rate, world gold price, crude oil price, and Dow Jones Industrial Average on the stock price index of the mining sector. This research employs time series monthly data of 2009-2016 with Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG as the method. The analysis showed that the BI rate, exchange rate and world gold price, has a negative and significant effect. World oil prices affect positively but not significant meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a positive and significant impact on the stock price index of the mining sector. For investors in the mining sector, should pay attention to the exchange rate of the rupiah and Dow Jones Index significantly in the mining sector of the stock price index.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5395 

76 FR 37828 - Update to Indian Index Zone Price Points

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-28

... to Indian Index Zone Price Points AGENCY: Office of Natural Resources Revenue, Interior. ACTION... (MMS) Minerals Revenue Management) is announcing an update to Indian index zone price points that will remove certain natural gas index prices from the Indian Index Zone calculation. These changes will impact...

The substitution bias of the consumer price index

OpenAIRE

Frenger, Petter

2006-01-01

Abstract: The paper uses elementary consumer theory to propose an inflation independent ratio definition of the substitution bias of the Laspeyres consumer price index, and derives an approximate substitution bias which depends on the size of the price change as measured by a norm in the Laspeyres plane and on the elasticity of substitution in the direction of the price change. This norm or distance measure can be interpreted as a price substitution index which yields useful in...

Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

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Carini Manuela

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

Causality relation between the producer price index and the consumer price index. Ecuador Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Quinde Rosales

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The present document is an investigation with a type of inductive reasoning. It evaluated the relationship of causality between the producer price index (IPP, and the consumer price index (IPC in a period from January 1998 to December 2016. The unit root test Dickey-Fuller Augmented (DFA was used under an empirical- analytic paradigm, an autoregressive vector-VAR model was generated and the Granger causality test was performed. The results show a positive trend and seasonality in the data of the variables, a VAR model of two variables was obtained with a number of optimal remnants of fourteen VAR2 (14 to which the causality test was performed, demonstrating a bi - directionality of both indices.

Online and official price indexes: Measuring Argentina's inflation

OpenAIRE

Cavallo, Alberto F.

2013-01-01

Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official statistics have been heavily criticized in recent years. The data were collected between October 2007 and March 2011 from the largest supermarket in each country. In Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela, online price indexes ap...

Clinical evaluation of myocardial perfusion imaging with 99mTc-CPI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiujie

1988-01-01

10 normal subjects and 55 cases of patients with heart diseases were studied with 99m Tc-CPI myocardial perfusion imaging. The 99m Tc-CPI myocarbial imaging is superior to 99m Tc-TBI, because the uptake of 99m Tc-CPI in both lung and liver is lower. The imaging quality of 99m Tc-CPI is nearly as good as that of 201 Tl. 16 patients had both 99m Tc-CPI myocardial imaging and coronary artery angiography. The sensitivity of 99m Tc-CPI myocardial imaging for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) was 92%, whereas the sensitivity of ECG was 84.6%. 99m Tc-CPI myocardial tomography was obtained in 17 patients using Toshiba 90B SPECT system. The imaging quality of myocardial tomography using 99m Tc-CPI is very good and superior to planar imaging for detecting myocardial infarction

Divisia amount and price index for energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, J.

1993-01-01

In connection with the calculation of total energy consumption related to aggregation of the individual fuel's combustion values, an alternative to Btu aggregation (combustion value measurement), designated the ''Divisia index'', is presented. This represents an economic measure for energy consumption. The Divisia index is demonstrated in relation to total national energy consumption and total energy consumption within the Danish housing sector and also with regard to the estimation of price and income elasticity within energy demand. It is only possible to utilize the Divisia index in relation to the last 20 years, which is the period where energy consumption has stagnated. The question of possible irreversible effects on energy consumption caused by large variations in energy prices is discussed. It is suggested that the reaction to a fall in prices is different and less significant than is the case with price rises. In the long term, results point at a reasonably high price elasticity within energy demand. (AB) (22 refs.)

75 FR 34959 - Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-21

...] Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index June 15, 2010. AGENCY: Federal Energy Regulatory... comments on its five-year review of the oil pipeline pricing index established in Revisions to Oil Pipeline...-year review of the oil pricing index, the Commission adopted an index of PPI+1.3 for the five-year...

The case for indexed price caps for U.S. electric utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowry, M.N.

1991-01-01

Indexed price caps are a promising alternative to traditional, cost-of-service utility rate regulation. In just a decade, they have sprung from the drawing boards of economists to use by major utilities in a number of industries. Several authors have discussed the merits of indexed price caps for U.S. electric utilities. Despite their efforts, many parties to electric utility policy making are unfamiliar with the subject. This is unsurprising given the policy controversies that already embroil the industry. It is also unfortunate, since indexed price caps may help solve some of the problems that prompt these controversies. Indexed price caps can improve electric utility rate regulation in two ways. Utilities would have strong incentives to improve performance without the micromanagement that increasingly characterizes state-level regulation. Utilities could also be granted more extensive marketing freedoms, since indexes can protect customers from cross-subsidization. Two areas of concern about indexed price cap plans have emerged in recent discussions that the author has held with officials of electric utilities, intervenor groups, and regulatory agencies. Officials are often unclear on plan details, and therefore may not appreciate the degree of flexibility that is possible in plan design. Confusion over the available options in price cap adjustment indexes and the logic behind them is especially widespread. Officials also desire a clearer expression of how indexed price caps can coexist with current regulatory initiatives. This article details the major attributes of index plans, provides a brief history of indexing, discusses index design options in depth, and concludes with a vision of how indexed price caps can be made operational in today's electric utility industry

Is the Carli index flawed?: assessing the case for the new retail price index RPIJ.

Science.gov (United States)

Levell, Peter

2015-02-01

The paper discusses the recent decision of the UK's Office for National Statistics to replace the controversial Carli index with the Jevons index in a new version of the retail price index-RPIJ. In doing so we make three contributions to the way that price indices should be selected for measures of consumer price inflation when quantity information is not available (i.e. at the 'elementary' level). Firstly, we introduce a new price bouncing test under the test approach for choosing index numbers. Secondly, we provide empirical evidence on the performance of the Carli and Jevons indices in different contexts under the statistical approach. Thirdly, applying something analogous to the principle of insufficient reason, we argue contrary to received wisdom in the literature, that the economic approach can be used to choose indices at the elementary level, and moreover that it favours the use of the Jevons index. Overall, we conclude that there is a case against the Carli index and that the Jevons index is to be preferred.

75 FR 80300 - Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-22

...] Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index Issued December 16, 2010. AGENCY: Federal Energy... five-year review of the oil pricing index, established in Order No. 561. After consideration of the... period commencing July 1, 2011. \\1\\ Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index, 75 FR 34959 (June 21...

MEASURING INFLATION THROUGH STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO INDEX NUMBERS FOR PAKISTAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahid Asghar

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to estimate the rate of inflation in Pakistan through stochastic approach to index numbers which provides not only point estimate but also confidence interval for the rate of inflation. There are two types of approaches to index number theory namely: the functional economic approaches and the stochastic approach. The attraction of stochastic approach is that it estimates the rate of inflation in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a major roll of screening index numbers. We have used extended stochastic approach to index numbers for measuring inflation by allowing for the systematic changes in the relative prices. We use CPI data covering the period July 2001--March 2008 for Pakistan.

DOES FEAR (VIX INDEX INCITE VOLATILITY IN FOOD PRICES?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gökhan Çınar

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Globally, the volatility trend in food prices has continued to increase. Different data give the impression that this volatility may be caused by the international finance markets’ propagation effect. For this reason, the study focused on the VIX (fear index that is used to measure the movement in Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The main objective of the study is to analyze the degree of volatility between the VIX index and the wheat market. The research is comprised of monthly data obtained from year 2000 to 2015. The study employs the BEKK GARCH method. The findings show that the variance shocks in the fear index damage food prices. The results may be useful to policy makers in researching the causes of changes in the prices of food commodity and taking necessary measures.

Fish is food--the FAO's fish price index.

Science.gov (United States)

Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Asche, Frank; Bellemare, Marc F; Smith, Martin D; Guttormsen, Atle G; Lem, Audun; Lien, Kristin; Vannuccini, Stefania

2012-01-01

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.

Fish is food--the FAO's fish price index.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sigbjørn Tveterås

Full Text Available World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.

Progress in CPI Microwave Tube Development

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Edward L.; Bohlen, Heinz

2006-01-01

CPI continues its role as a leading supplier of state-of-the-art, high-power microwave tubes; from linear beam, velocity- and density-modulated devices, to high frequency gyro-devices. Klystrons are the device-of-choice for many high-power microwave applications, and can provide multi-megawatts to multi-kilowatts of power from UHF to W-band, respectively. A number of recent and on-going developments will be described. At UHF frequencies, the inductive output tube (IOT) has replaced the klystron for terrestrial NTSC and HDTV broadcast, due to its high efficiency and linearity, and is beginning to see use in scientific applications requiring 300 kW or less. Recent advances have enabled use well into L-band. CPI has developed a number of multiple-beam amplifiers. The VKL-8301 multiple-beam klystron (MBK) was built for the TESLA V/UV and x-ray FEL projects, and is a candidate RF source for the International Linear Collider (ILC). We have also contributed to the development of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) high-power fundamental-mode S-band MBK. The VHP-8330B multiple-beam, high-order mode (HOM) IOT shows great promise as a compact, CW UHF source for high power applications. These topics will be discussed, along with CPI's development capabilities for new and novel applications. Most important is our availability to provide design and fabrication services to organizations requiring CPI's manufacturing and process control infrastructure to build and test state-of-the-art devices.

Comparison of CPI and GAP models in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sang Hoon; Park, Jong Sun; Kim, Song Yee; Kim, Dong Soon; Kim, Young Whan; Chung, Man Pyo; Uh, Soo Taek; Park, Choon Sik; Park, Sung Woo; Jeong, Sung Hwan; Park, Yong Bum; Lee, Hong Lyeol; Shin, Jong Wook; Lee, Eun Joo; Lee, Jin Hwa; Jegal, Yangin; Lee, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Yong Hyun; Song, Jin Woo; Park, Moo Suk

2018-03-19

The clinical course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is difficult to predict, partly owing to its heterogeneity. Composite physiologic index (CPI) and gender-age-physiology (GAP) models are easy-to-use predictors of IPF progression. This study aimed to compare the predictive values of these two models. From 2003 to 2007, the Korean Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) Study Group surveyed ILD patients using the 2002 ATS/ERS criteria. A total of 832 patients with IPF were enrolled in this study. CPI was calculated as follows: 91.0 - (0.65 × %DL CO ) - [0.53 × %FVC + [0.34 × %FEV 1 . GAP stage was calculated based on gender (0-1 points), age (0-2 points), and two physiologic lung function parameters (0-5 points). The two models had similar significant predictive values for patients with IPF (p GAP for prediction of 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality in this study. The AUC was higher for surgically diagnosed IPF patients than for clinically diagnosed patients. However, neither CPI nor GAP yielded good predictions of outcomes; the AUC was approximately 0.61~0.65. Although both CPI and GAP stage are significantly useful predictors for IPF, they have limited capability to accurately predict outcomes.

How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Zhujun; Tan, Jijun

2013-01-01

In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO 2 emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform. - Highlights: • China's fossil-fuel subsidies were CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008 including external cost. • Removing energy subsidies will have the largest impact on energy-intensity industry. • Removal of oil products subsidies will have the largest impact. • The effect of removing energy subsidies on general price is: PPI>GDP deflator>CPI

Tradeoffs between Price and Quality: How a Value Index Affects Preference Formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Creyer, Elizabeth H.; Ross, William T., Jr.

1997-01-01

Some of a group of 143 consumers were given a choice between higher-priced, higher-quality items and items with lower price and quality but higher value index (benefit/cost tradeoff); others were given price and quality information only. Consumers were more likely to choose lower-priced, higher-value options when the index information was…

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Michael

This dissertation contains three chapters which explore the question of how monetary policy should respond to changes in the price of oil. Each chapter explores the question from the perspective of a different economic environment. The first chapter examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy in a closed economy New Keynesian model that is extended to include household and firm demand for oil products, sticky wages, and capital accumulation. When households and firms demand oil products a natural difference arises between the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI, and the GDP deflator. I show that when nominal wages are flexible then the optimal policy places a heavy emphasis on stabilizing the inflation rate of the core CPI. If aggregate nominal wages are sticky then the central bank should focus on stabilizing some combination of core inflation and nominal wage inflation. Under no case examined is it optimal to stabilize either GDP deflator or CPI inflation. The second chapter examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy with traded and non-traded goods. Oil and labor are used to produce the traded and non-traded goods and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector. I show analytically that the ratio of the oil and labor cost shares in the traded and non-traded sectors is crucial for determining the dynamic behavior of many macroeconomic variables after a rise in the price of oil. A policy of fixed exchange rates can produce higher or lower inflation in the non-traded sector depending upon the ratio. Likewise, a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate of prices in the non-traded sector can cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate. For the proper calibration, a policy that stabilizes core inflation produces results very close to the one that stabilizes non-traded inflation. Analytical results show that the fixed exchange rate always produces a unique solution. The policy of stabilizing non

Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Ato Forson

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS, the consumer price index (CPI, interest rate (IR and the industrial production index (IP (as a proxy for GDP. Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1 and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto’s augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...

A Price Index Model for Road Freight Transportation and Its Empirical analysis in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Zhishuo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of price index for road freight transportation (RFT is to reflect the changes of price in the road transport market. Firstly, a price index model for RFT based on the sample data from Alibaba logistics platform is built. This model is a three levels index system including total index, classification index and individual index and the Laspeyres method is applied to calculate these indices. Finally, an empirical analysis of the price index for RFT market in Zhejiang Province is performed. In order to demonstrate the correctness and validity of the exponential model, a comparative analysis with port throughput and PMI index is carried out.

Mercurious Oil Index (MOI) : A new indicator for the global oil price

OpenAIRE

Leeuw, de, J.; Dorsman, A.B.; Nelissen, R.

2008-01-01

“The” price of oil does not exist. This paper describes the development of a (new) oil index, the Mercurious Oil Index (MOI). This index can be seen as an indicator for the global price of oil. We will discuss why this index is a reliable global price reference, and why it is superior to and more useful than the existing indices and/or benchmarks. Indices are very helpful instruments for the tracking and prediction of markets, to measure performance or sentiment and to form a solid basis on w...

Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation

OpenAIRE

Juan Carlos Bencomo; Hugo J. Montesinos; Hugo M. Montesinos; Jose Roberto Rondo

2011-01-01

Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Late...

Predicting Postprobationary Job Performance of Police Officers Using CPI and MMPI-2-RF Test Data Obtained During Preemployment Psychological Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Ryan M; Tarescavage, Anthony M; Ben-Porath, Yossef S; Roberts, Michael D

2018-02-09

We examined associations between prehire California Psychological Inventory (CPI) and prorated Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) scores (calculated from MMPI profiles) and supervisor ratings for a sample of 143 male police officers. Substantive scale scores in this sample were meaningfully lower than those obtained by the tests' normative samples in the case of the MMPI-2-RF and meaningfully higher in the case of the CPI (indicating less psychological dysfunction). Test scores from both instruments showed substantial range restriction, consistent with those produced by members of the police candidate comparison groups (Corey & Ben-Porath, 2014 ; Roberts & Johnson, 2001 ). After applying a statistical correction for range restriction, we found a number of meaningful associations between both CPI and MMPI-2-RF substantive scale scores and supervisor ratings. For the MMPI-2-RF, findings for scales from the emotional dysfunction and interpersonal functioning domains of the test were particularly strong. For the CPI, findings for scales indicating conformity with social norms, integrity, and tolerance were strong, as were the findings for an index indicating risk of termination. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that MMPI-2-RF and CPI scores complement each other, accounting for incremental variance in the prediction of job-related variables over and above each other. Implications of these findings for assessment science and practice are discussed.

77 FR 9925 - Price Index Adjustments for Expenditure Limitations and Lobbyist Bundling Disclosure Threshold

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-21

... FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION [Notice 2012-02] Price Index Adjustments for Expenditure Limitations...)(A)) are adjusted periodically to reflect changes in the consumer price index. See 2 U.S.C. 434(i)(3... difference between the price index, as certified to the Commission by the Secretary of Labor, for the 12...

Uptake and release of 99mTc-CPI in cultured myocardial cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Shengting; Xiao Yanling; Yu Qifu; Zhang Hongyuan; Tang Jingrong

1991-01-01

The uptake and release of 99m Tc-CPI were studied in cultured monolayer neonatal rat myocardial cells incubated under normal condition (37 deg C, pH 7.4). The plateau level of uptake (4291.6 cpm/mg cell protein) was reached at 41.4 min when incubated with 37 kBq 99m Tc-CPI. The 99m Tc-CPI release was composed of at least two components. The fast component had a half-time (t 1/2 ) of 3.3 min and the slow one 198.0 min. It was suggested by the authors that the uptake of 99m Tc-CPI by cultured myocardial cells might be related to passive diffusion

75 FR 8353 - Price Index Adjustments for Expenditure Limitations and Lobbyist Bundling Disclosure Threshold

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-24

... FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION [Notice 2010-02] Price Index Adjustments for Expenditure Limitations... price index. See 2 U.S.C. 434(i)(3) and 441a(c)(1), and 11 CFR 109.32 and 110.17(a), (f). The Commission... is increased by 4.35110, which reflects the difference between the price index, as certified to the...

On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility

OpenAIRE

Nicolas Vincent; Oleksiy Kryvtsov

2015-01-01

Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns ("sales") by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out. We challenge this view. First, using the 1996 - 2012 data set of the U.K. CPI monthly price quotes, we document a roughly twofold increase in the frequency of sales during the Great Recession. We also present evidence of countercyclical sales in the...

31 CFR Appendix D to Part 356 - Description of the Consumer Price Index

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Price Index (“CPI”) for purposes of inflation-protected securities is the non-seasonally adjusted U.S...' services, and drugs. In calculating the index, price changes for the various items are averaged together... Index D Appendix D to Part 356 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance...

76 FR 8368 - Price Index Adjustments for Contribution and Expenditure Limits and Lobbyist Bundling Disclosure...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-14

... FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION [Notice 2011-01] Price Index Adjustments for Contribution and... lobbyists (2 U.S.C. 434(i)(3)(A)) are adjusted periodically to reflect changes in the consumer price index... percent difference between the price index, as certified to the Commission by the Secretary of Labor, for...

Indexing of gas prices with respect to those of petroleum products: problem and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Percebois, J.; Sauvage, E.; Valette, M.; Liens, G.; Lu, L.

2009-01-01

A debate was organized by the French gas association (AFG) on December 2, 2008 around the question of: is it opportune to maintain the present day system of indexing of gas prices with respect to petroleum product prices? Even if the basic reasons justifying this indexing system have changed with time, and despite the recent hostility of the European Commission, this practice remains the standard for the huge majority of gas transactions. Does this indexing system favour the producers? In spite of their apparent interest, do the consumers really wish to replace indexed prices by market prices in a context where strong uncertainties and tensions on gas markets cannot be excluded? Is the present day status quo the result of the situation imposed by producers or is it the consequences of contradictory anticipations between sellers and buyers? Will gas prices remain indexed on petroleum prices in the future and if not, what would be the possible alternatives? These are the questions debated by the participants and reported in this paper with the questions from the audience. (J.S.)

Estimation of rice situation index in Japan using remotely sensed and meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaneko, D.

2006-01-01

This research aims to develop a remote sensing method for monitoring rice production in Japan. A photosynthesis-based crop production index CPI for rice is proposed that takes into consideration the solar radiation, the effective air temperature, and normalized vegetation index NDVI as a factor representing vegetation biomass. The CPI index incorporates temperature influences such as the effect of temperature on photosynthesis by grain plant leaves, low-temperature effects of sterility, cool summer damage due to delayed growth, and high-temperature injury. These latter factors are significant at around the heading period of rice. The CPI index for rice was modeled at ten monitoring sites in the Kanto, Tohoku, and Hokkaido districts, which occasionally tend to suffer poor harvests as a result of low temperatures. The photosynthesis-based crop production index CPI proposed here can predict the crop situation index of rice by using NDVI, solar radiation at meteorological observatories and air temperature at AMeDAS sites. The method is based on routine observation data, allowing automated monitoring of rice situation index at arbitrary sites in Japan. However, it is possible to further refine the estimation formula for the rice situation index for early monitoring

Pengaruh Hari Raya Galungan Pada Seasonal Adjustment IHK dan Penentuan Komoditas Utama Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Provinsi Bali: Analisis ARIMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Putu Simpen Arini

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Inflation is one of macroeconomic indicators that show a rise of prices in the general level of goods and services over a period of time. The research conducted by Bank Indonesia in 2003 and 2004 show that the largest component that determine the inflation was people’s expectation. One of the required information to controling inflation expectation is the prediction of future inflation and the main commodity that make a big contribution to inflation. Consumer Price Index (CPI data use to prediction of future inflation rate. Forecasting the time series data of CPI must be preceded with seasonal adjustment to reduce a seasonal component in time series data. Seasonal component which is tested in this study is Galungan (one of Balinese’s big ceremony. This is based on fact that the majority of Balinese are Hindust. Data which used in this research are Consumer Price Index (CPI, inflation rate, commodity price index, producer prices, and consumer prices. The method which used to seasonal adjusted is X-12 ARIMA and the method which used to forecast is SARIMA. Modus method and the principal component analysis are use to determine the main commodity which make an influence to Bali’s inflation. The results of this research are: (1 Galungan has unsignificant result as seasonal component to effect the Bali’s CPI, (2 The forecast for Bali’s inflation rate in 2012 is 6,23 percent, and (3 The main commodity that has a big contribution to influence the Bali’s inflation rate is rice.  

Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the cpi. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongxiu He

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In Beijing, China, the rational consumption of energy is affected by the insufficient linkage mechanism of the energy pricing system, the unreasonable price ratio and other issues. This paper combines the characteristics of Beijing’s energy market, putting forward the society-economy equilibrium indicator R maximization taking into consideration the mitigation cost to determine a reasonable price ratio range. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE model, and dividing four kinds of energy sources into three groups, the impact of price fluctuations of electricity and natural gas on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI, energy consumption and CO2 and SO2 emissions can be simulated for various scenarios. On this basis, the integrated effects of electricity and natural gas price shocks on the Beijing economy and environment can be calculated. The results show that relative to the coal prices, the electricity and natural gas prices in Beijing are currently below reasonable levels; the solution to these unreasonable energy price ratios should begin by improving the energy pricing mechanism, through means such as the establishment of a sound dynamic adjustment mechanism between regulated prices and market prices. This provides a new idea for exploring the rationality of energy price ratios in imperfect competitive energy markets.

A Price Index for Deflation of Academic R&D Expenditures.

Science.gov (United States)

National Science Foundation, Washington, DC.

This study relates to price trends affecting research and development (R&D) activities at academic institutions. Part I of this report provides the overall results of the study with limited discussion of measurement concepts, methodology and limitations. Part II deals with price indexes and deflation-general concepts and methodology. Part III…

ANALISIS EKSPOR-IMPOR DAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN PADA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darman Darman

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to assess and analyze the Effect of Export, Impor and Consumer Price Index in economic growth in Indonesia from 2000 to 2014. This research uses quantitative descriptive approach with the nature of verification explanatory method. The data used are secondary data in the form of Export, Import, and the Consumer Price Index of Indonesian Economic Growth (GDP in 2000-2014. The results showed that export push the GDP more effectively: compared to import sector and CPI. Regression analysis showed that the constant value of GDP was 0.526. Also, the Export Coefficients value is 0.015, the Import Coefficients value is -0,026 and CPI is -0.2303. Meaning that 1 percent of the value of exports will increase GDP by 1.5 percent, 1 percent of imports will lower the value of GDP by 2.6 percent and 1 percent of the CPI will lower the value of GDP by 23.03 percent. This means that Exports variable boots GDP more effective from Import sector and the Consumer Price Index. Significance test results showed that the variables of export, import and CPI jointly influence economic growth (GDP with the alpha (a of 5% as shown by the F-statistic significant value of 0.74, greater than a=0,05. In other words, the independent variabel (exports, imports and CPI jointly affect the dependent variable (GDP

The elasticity of substitution of superlative price indices

OpenAIRE

Petter Frenger

2005-01-01

Abstract: The paper presents a method for computing the curvature implicit in the use of superlative price indices. It extends the quadratic lemma and allows us to compute the elasticity of substitution of the underlying preferences in the direction of the observed price change for the Törnqvist and the quadratic mean of order r indices. It derives the expressions for the directional shadow elasticity of substitution and applies the results to the Norwegian CPI data base. Ke...

The effects of agricultural trade openness on food price transmission in Latin American countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Insa Flachsbarth

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Trade of agricultural commodities has grown significantly in most Latin American countries (LAC over the last two decades. However, after the international food price surges in 2006-08 and 2011-12 concerns about food access of the poor arose. Within a panel framework containing six LAC (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, we used a single equation error correction model to identify possible cointegrating relationships between the food consumer price index (CPI and a set of trade related and domestic variables. The main focus of the study was to examine how different levels of trade openness impact international food price transmission to domestic markets. Our results confirm that deeper market integration increases global price transmission elasticities. In other words, more agricultural trade openness proves to elevate food CPIs during global price spikes. Thus, for poor consumers world price shocks can be deteriorating in the short-run and domestic food prices will slowly converge to a higher long-run equilibrium. Especially in increasingly integrated economies, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. We also found that exchange rate appreciations can buffer price shocks to a certain extent and that monetary policies seem to be an appropriate means for stabilizing food prices to safeguard food access of the poor population.

Adjusting Health Expenditures for Inflation: A Review of Measures for Health Services Research in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, Abe; Grosse, Scott D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2018-02-01

To provide guidance on selecting the most appropriate price index for adjusting health expenditures or costs for inflation. Major price index series produced by federal statistical agencies. We compare the key characteristics of each index and develop suggestions on specific indexes to use in many common situations and general guidance in others. Price series and methodological documentation were downloaded from federal websites and supplemented with literature scans. The gross domestic product implicit price deflator or the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is preferable to the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) to adjust for general inflation, in most cases. The Personal Health Care (PHC) index or the PCE health-by-function index is generally preferred to adjust total medical expenditures for inflation. The CPI medical care index is preferred for the adjustment of consumer out-of-pocket expenditures for inflation. A new, experimental disease-specific Medical Care Expenditure Index is now available to adjust payments for disease treatment episodes. There is no single gold standard for adjusting health expenditures for inflation. Our discussion of best practices can help researchers select the index best suited to their study. © Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

An estimation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the CPI. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

Price Response to Factor Index Additions and Deletions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.J. Huij (Joop); G.S. Kyosev (Georgi)

2016-01-01

textabstractAbnormal price reaction around S&P 500 index changes has been considered as strong evidence that long term demand for stocks is downward sloping. This notion, however, has recently lost popularity due to the evidence that new additions are accompanied with a contemporaneous change in

A note on purchasing power parity and the choice of price index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Terra

2008-03-01

Full Text Available The PPP argument states that the currencies purchasing power should be the same across countries for the same basket of tradable goods. We run a horse race among six different price indices to see which one yields higher PPP evidence, and, therefore, better fits this criterion. Using export unit values, WPIs, value added deflators, unit labor costs, normalized unit labor costs and CPIs for 16 countries from 1975 to 2002, unit root tests show that WPI was the index for which PPP evidence was found for the larger number of countries. No evidence of PPP was found for the ratio CPI/WPI.Segundo o argumento de Paridade do Poder de Compra, o poder de compra das moedas deveria ser o mesmo entre as economias para uma mesma cesta de bens comerciáveis. Neste artigo promovemos uma competição entre seis diferentes indíces de preços para investigar qual deles apresenta maior evidência de PPC, melhor satisfazendo, portanto, esse critério. Utilizamos o Valor Unitário das Exportações, o Índice de Preços por Atacado, o Custo Unitário do Trabalho, o Custo Unitário do Trabalho Normalizado e o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor para 16 países entre 1975 e 2002. Em testes de raiz unitária, o Índice de Preços por Atacado foi o índice para o qual a PPC foi encontrada para o maior número de países. Não foi encontrada nenhuma evidência de PPC para a razão entre o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor e o por Atacado.

Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

Science.gov (United States)

Oktaviarina, A.

2018-01-01

The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kho Chia; Bahar, Arifah; Ting, Chee-Ming

2014-07-01

This paper studies the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model that incorporates long memory stochastic volatility which is known as fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The determination of the existence of long range dependence of the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is measured by the Hurst exponent. The empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering method. The performance between fractional Ornstein -Uhlenbeck and standard Ornstein -Uhlenbeck process had been compared. The mean square errors of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model indicated that the model describes index prices better than the standard Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

75 FR 49411 - Consumer Price Index Adjustments of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 Limits of Liability-Vessels and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-13

... Consumer Price Index Adjustments of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 Limits of Liability--Vessels and Deepwater... ports to reflect significant increases in the Consumer Price Index. The amendment triggered information... interim rule entitled ``Consumer Price Index Adjustments of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 Limits of Liability...

The development of a value based pricing index for new drugs in metastatic colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Dranitsaris, George; Truter, Ilse; Lubbe, Martie S

2011-06-01

Worldwide, prices for cancer drugs have been under downward pressure where several governments have mandated price cuts of branded products. A better alternative to government mandated price cuts would be to estimate a final price based on drug performance, cost effectiveness and a country's ability to pay. We developed a global pricing index for new cancer drugs in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) that encompasses all of these attributes. A pharmacoeconomic model was developed to simulate mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy plus a 'new drug' that improves survival by 1.4, 3 and 6months, respectively. Cost and utility data were obtained from cancer centres and oncology nurses (n=112) in Canada, Spain, India, South Africa and Malaysia. Multivariable analysis was then used to develop the pricing index, which considers survival benefit, per capita GDP and income dispersion (as measured by the Gini coefficient) as predictor variables. Higher survival benefits were associated with elevated drug prices, especially in higher income countries such as Canada. For Argentina with a per capita GDP of $15,000 and a Gini coefficient of 51, the index estimated that for a drug which provides a 4month survival benefit in mCRC, the value based price would be $US 630 per dose. In contrast, the same drug in a wealthier country like Norway (per capita GDP=$50,000) could command a price of $US 2,775 per dose. The application of this index to estimate a price based on cost effectiveness and the wealth of a nation would be important for opening dialogue between the key stakeholders and a better alternative to government mandated price cuts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON BANKING STOCK PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laduna R.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Stock price index can be regarded as a barometer in the measuremet of a nation’s economic condition, besides it can also be used in conducting statistical analysis on the current market. Stock is the proof of one’s share in a company in the form of securities issued by the listed go-public companies. This study was conducted to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on banking stock price index in Indonesia stock exchange or Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI. The results of study show that inflation and exchange rate posively influence the stock price index. The positive effect of the exchange rate shows that issuers who were positively affected by Rupiah (IDR depreciation appear to be the most dominant group. Meanwhile, the interest rate or Suku Bunga (SBI has a negative effect. Lower interest rate stimulates higher investments and better economic activities which increase the stock price.

Community Priority Index: utility, applicability and validation for priority setting in community-based participatory research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamisu M. Salihu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background. Providing practitioners with an intuitive measure for priority setting that can be combined with diverse data collection methods is a necessary step to foster accountability of the decision-making process in community settings. Yet, there is a lack of easy-to-use, but methodologically robust measures, that can be feasibly implemented for reliable decision-making in community settings. To address this important gap in community based participatory research (CBPR, the purpose of this study was to demonstrate the utility, applicability, and validation of a community priority index in a community-based participatory research setting. Design and Methods. Mixed-method study that combined focus groups findings, nominal group technique with six key informants, and the generation of a Community Priority Index (CPI that integrated community importance, changeability, and target populations. Bootstrapping and simulation were performed for validation. Results. For pregnant mothers, the top three highly important and highly changeable priorities were: stress (CPI=0.85; 95%CI: 0.70, 1.00, lack of affection (CPI=0.87; 95%CI: 0.69, 1.00, and nutritional issues (CPI=0.78; 95%CI: 0.48, 1.00. For non-pregnant women, top priorities were: low health literacy (CPI=0.87; 95%CI: 0.69, 1.00, low educational attainment (CPI=0.78; 95%CI: 0.48, 1.00, and lack of self-esteem (CPI=0.72; 95%CI: 0.44, 1.00. For children and adolescents, the top three priorities were: obesity (CPI=0.88; 95%CI: 0.69, 1.00, low self-esteem (CPI=0.81; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.94, and negative attitudes toward education (CPI=0.75; 95%CI: 0.50, 0.94. Conclusions. This study demonstrates the applicability of the CPI as a simple and intuitive measure for priority setting in CBPR.

Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

OpenAIRE

Daniel Melser; Iqbal A. Syed

2014-01-01

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large US scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a...

Forecasting ability of the investor sentiment endurance index: The case of oil service stock returns and crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Ling T.; Casey, K.M.

2015-01-01

Using a binomial probability distribution model this paper creates an endurance index of oil service investor sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index. Results of this study reveal the substantial forecasting ability of the sentiment endurance index. Monthly and quarterly rolling forecasts of returns of oil service stocks have an overall accuracy as high as 52% to 57%. In addition, the index shows decent forecasting ability on changes in crude oil prices, especially, WTI prices. The accuracy of 6-quarter rolling forecasts is 55%. The sentiment endurance index, along with the procedure of true forecasting and accuracy ratio, applied in this study provides investors and analysts of oil service sector stocks and crude oil prices as well as energy policy-makers with effective analytical tools

Charting the cost of nutritionally-adequate diets in Uganda, 2000-2011

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To compare food costs over time, prices are deflated using the monthly consumer price index\\ (CPI). Food prices are converted to prices per 100 gram portions, so as to maintain consistency with units of nutrient composition for given food items. The diet cost is compared to the Ugandan poverty line over time. The real cost ...

Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

2011-01-01

This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on Malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses. We use a structural VAR (SVAR) model based on monthly data over the period 1986−2009. The EGARCH model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the SVAR model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on Malaysian industrial production. We also find that levels of Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty. This is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals, households and other sectors of the economy. We also found that the Malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks. These results shed some light on how the central bank of Malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level. - Highlights: ► Conditional volatility of the oil price causes a significant decline in aggregate output. ► Price level falls significantly to one standard deviation shock to oil price uncertainty. ► Malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks.

Forecasting inflation based on the consumer price index, taking into account the impact of seasonal factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. K. Sapova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.

Social accounting matrix and the effects of economic reform on health price index and household expenditures: Evidence from Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Keshavarz, Khosro; Najafi, Behzad; Andayesh, Yaghob; Rezapour, Aziz; Abolhallaj, Masoud; Sarabi Asiabar, Ali; Hashemi Meshkini, Amir; Sanati, Ehsan; Mirian, Iman; Nikfar, Shekoofeh; Lotfi, Farhad

2017-01-01

Background: Socioeconomic indicators are the main factors that affect health outcome. Health price index (HPI) and households living costs (HLC) are affected by economic reform. This study aimed at examining the effect of subsidy targeting plan (STP) on HPI and HLC. Methods: The social accounting matrix was used to study the direct and indirect effects of STP. We chose 11 health related goods and services including insurance, compulsory social security services, hospital services, medical and dental services, other human health services, veterinary services, social services, environmental health services, laundry& cleaning and dyeing services, cosmetic and physical health services, and pharmaceutical products in the social accounting matrix to examine the health price index. Data were analyzed by the I-O&SAM software. Results: Due to the subsidy release on energy, water, and bread prices, we found that (i) health related goods and services groups' price index rose between 33.43% and 77.3%, (ii) the living cost index of urban households increased between 48.75% and 58.21%, and (iii) the living cost index of rural households grew between 53.51% and 68.23%. The results demonstrated that the elimination of subsidy would have negative effects on health subdivision and households' costs such that subsidy elimination increased the health prices index and the household living costs, especially among low-income families. The STP had considerable effects on health subdivision price index. Conclusion: The elimination or reduction of energy carriers and basic commodities subsidies have changed health price and households living cost index. Therefore, the policymakers should consider controlling the price of health sectors, price fluctuations and shocks.

Prices over the Product Life Cycle: Implications for Quality-Adjustment and the Measurement of Inflation

OpenAIRE

Daniel Melser; Iqbal A. Syed

2013-01-01

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large US scanner data set on supermarket products and applying exible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance and at sample rotations. This introduces a ...

Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aydin, Levent; Acar, Mustafa

2011-01-01

As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy. - Research highlights: → World oil prices are projected to rise in coming decade, to around $185 per barrel in 2020. → If this occurs in Turkey, how to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Turkish economy? → Cumulative output loss resulting from world oil prices increased by 121% can be as large as 14%. → Cumulative inflation as measured by CPI index can be nearly 5% under a fixed exchange rate regime. → Cumulative carbon emissions fall by around 51.7% without using any tools for climate change policy.

Index of Real Sector Returns as Price Benchmarking for Islamic Banking Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Researchers of Islamic Banking Department

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective – Islamic Banking is closely related to the real sector. Then, its operation should reflect the real sector which is expected to contribute to the sustainable economic growth. Nevertheless, Islamic banks are still benchmarking the price of their products (profit sharing and sales on interest rate. This is as an implication of the implementation of the dual banking system. Moreover, the small portion of Islamic banking compared to the total national banks causes the competitiveness of Islamic banking product in terms of pricing has a high correlation with the interest rate of conventional counterpart. This phenomenon indicates the need to find.Method – This research employed library research method since this paper relies on secondary data by thoroughly reviewing the most relevant literature. The paper attempt to propose a pricing indicator which is based on the real sector activities as the root of Islamic banking operations.Result – Theoretically, this indicator can reflect the real rate of return of every industry sector. In addition, it can help Bank Indonesia to monitor the real sector performance and analyze the possible gap between real sector activities and financial sector. Furthermore, when the benchmark of real rate of real sector return is available, the return index of Islamic banking reflecting the profit sharing performance of the whole Islamic banking industry can be formulated. This concept is different with other indexes which are corresponding to the price of financial assets.Conclusion – In general, return index of real sector as a reference for Islamic banking product pricing is expected to define the way of non-interest return analysis, to calculate the non-interest return of selected sectors that becomes the focus of analysis using Cash Recovery Rates (CRR, forming an index of industry by sector in the second stage, by doing a certain weighting of those companies, to analyze the relationship between macro

5 CFR 591.219 - How does OPM compute shelter price indexes?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... REGULATIONS ALLOWANCES AND DIFFERENTIALS Cost-of-Living Allowance and Post Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living Allowances § 591.219 How does OPM compute shelter price indexes? (a) In addition to rental...

Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price. Evidence from OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Ting-Huan; Huang, Chien-Ming; Lee, Ming-Chih

2009-01-01

This paper uses a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to investigate the influence that energy prices have on renewable energy development under different economic growth rate regimes. The empirical data are obtained from each of the OECD member-countries over the period from 1997 to 2006. We show that there is one threshold in the regression relationship, which is 4.13% of a one-period lag in the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The consumer price index (CPI), in so far as it relates to variations in energy, is significantly positively correlated with the contribution of renewables to energy supply in the regime with higher-economic growth, but there is no relationship in the regime with lower economic growth. Therefore, countries characterized by high-economic growth are able to respond to high energy prices with increases in renewable energy use, while countries characterized by low-economic growth countries tend to be unresponsive to energy price changes when they come to their level of renewable energy. (author)

Real price and affordability as challenges for effective tobacco control policies: an analysis for Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Iglesias, Germán; González-Rozada, Martín; Champagne, Beatriz Marcet; Schoj, Verónica

2015-02-01

To describe the evolution of cigarettes' real price and affordability during the last decade in Argentina. To analyze the real price of cigarettes, the weighted average monthly price of a pack of 20 cigarettes was divided by the consumer price index (CPI) from 2004 to 2014. The relative income price (RIP) was evaluated for the same period, defining RIP as the percentage of the income required to buy 100 packs of 20-per-pack cigarettes. The RIP was calculated for first-quartile, median, and third-quartile income groups. The lower the RIP, the higher the affordability. The nominal price of a pack of 20 cigarettes sold in Argentina increased from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 14.36 in June 2014 (nominal price increase of about 19.7% per year). The real price fell from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 2.11 in June 2014 (real price drop of about 0.6% per year). Between June 2004 and June 2014, the RIP decreased about 39% for the 3rd quartile income group (from 31.3% to 19.2%), about 42% for the median (from 55.7% to 32.0%), and about 50% for the 1st quartile (from 104.4% to 51.8%). In Argentina, inflation and rising income were greater than growth in cigarette prices. Cigarette affordability increased for each income group, with the highest shifts occurring among the poorest and most vulnerable income earners. The increased affordability of cigarettes might reduce the impact of implemented tobacco control policies.

Real price and affordability as challenges for effective tobacco control policies: an analysis for Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Germán Rodríguez-Iglesias

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Objective. To describe the evolution of cigarettes' real price and affordability during the last decade in Argentina. Methods. To analyze the real price of cigarettes, the weighted average monthly price of a pack of 20 cigarettes was divided by the consumer price index (CPI from 2004 to 2014. The relative income price (RIP was evaluated for the same period, defining RIP as the percentage of the income required to buy 100 packs of 20-per-pack cigarettes. The RIP was calculated for first-quartile, median, and third-quartile income groups. The lower the RIP, the higher the affordability. Results. The nominal price of a pack of 20 cigarettes sold in Argentina increased from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 14.36 in June 2014 (nominal price increase of about 19.7% per year. The real price fell from AR$ 2.24 in March 2004 to AR$ 2.11 in June 2014 (real price drop of about 0.6% per year. Between June 2004 and June 2014, the RIP decreased about 39% for the 3rd quartile income group (from 31.3% to 19.2%, about 42% for the median (from 55.7% to 32.0%, and about 50% for the 1st quartile (from 104.4% to 51.8%. Conclusions. In Argentina, inflation and rising income were greater than growth in cigarette prices. Cigarette affordability increased for each income group, with the highest shifts occurring among the poorest and most vulnerable income earners. The increased affordability of cigarettes might reduce the impact of implemented tobacco control policies.

The development of a value based pricing index for new drugs in metastatic colorectal cancer

OpenAIRE

Lubbe, Martha Susanna; Dranitsaris, George; Truter, Ilse

2011-01-01

Background Worldwide, prices for cancer drugs have been under downward pressure where several governments have mandated price cuts of branded products. A better alternative to government mandated price cuts would be to estimate a final price based on drug performance, cost effectiveness and a country’s ability to pay. We developed a global pricing index for new cancer drugs in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) that encompasses all of these attributes. Methods ...

Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

2015-01-01

This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

5 CFR 591.218 - How does OPM compute price indexes?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does OPM compute price indexes? 591.218 Section 591.218 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS ALLOWANCES AND DIFFERENTIALS Cost-of-Living Allowance and Post Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living...

Nuclear localization of CPI-17, a protein phosphatase-1 inhibitor protein, affects histone H3 phosphorylation and corresponds to proliferation of cancer and smooth muscle cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eto, Masumi, E-mail: masumi.eto@jefferson.edu [Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, and Kimmel Cancer Center, Thomas Jefferson University, 1020 Locust Street, PA 19107 (United States); Kirkbride, Jason A.; Chugh, Rishika; Karikari, Nana Kofi [Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, and Kimmel Cancer Center, Thomas Jefferson University, 1020 Locust Street, PA 19107 (United States); Kim, Jee In [Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics, and Kimmel Cancer Center, Thomas Jefferson University, 1020 Locust Street, PA 19107 (United States); Cardiovascular Research Institute, Kyungpook National University School of Medicine, Daegu 700-422 (Korea, Republic of)

2013-04-26

Highlights: •Non-canonical roles of the myosin phosphatase inhibitor (CPI-17) were studied. •CPI-17 is localized in the nucleus of hyperplastic cancer and smooth muscle cells. •CPI-17 Ser12 phosphorylation may regulate the nuclear import. •CPI-17 regulates histone H3 phosphorylation and cell proliferation. •The nuclear CPI-17-PP1 axis plays a proliferative role in cells. -- Abstract: CPI-17 (C-kinase-activated protein phosphatase-1 (PP1) inhibitor, 17 kDa) is a cytoplasmic protein predominantly expressed in mature smooth muscle (SM) that regulates the myosin-associated PP1 holoenzyme (MLCP). Here, we show CPI-17 expression in proliferating cells, such as pancreatic cancer and hyperplastic SM cells. Immunofluorescence showed that CPI-17 was concentrated in nuclei of human pancreatic cancer (Panc1) cells. Nuclear accumulation of CPI-17 was also detected in the proliferating vascular SM cell culture and cells at neointima of rat vascular injury model. The N-terminal 21-residue tail domain of CPI-17 was necessary for the nuclear localization. Phospho-mimetic Asp-substitution of CPI-17 at Ser12 attenuated the nuclear import. CPI-17 phosphorylated at Ser12 was not localized at nuclei, suggesting a suppressive role of Ser12 phosphorylation in the nuclear import. Activated CPI-17 bound to all three isoforms of PP1 catalytic subunit in Panc1 nuclear extracts. CPI-17 knockdown in Panc1 resulted in dephosphorylation of histone H3 at Thr3, Ser10 and Thr11, whereas it had no effects on the phosphorylation of myosin light chain and merlin, the known targets of MLCP. In parallel, CPI-17 knockdown suppressed Panc1 proliferation. We propose that CPI-17 accumulated in the nucleus through the N-terminal tail targets multiple PP1 signaling pathways regulating cell proliferation.

Accounting for Housing in a CPI

OpenAIRE

Diewert, Erwin; Nakamura, Alice O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we take stock of how statistical agencies in different nations are currently accounting for housing in their consumer price indexes (CPIs). The rental equivalence and user cost approaches have been favourites of economists. Both can be derived from the fundamental equation of capital theory. Concerns about these approaches are taken up. We go on to argue that an opportunity cost approach is the correct theoretical framework for accounting for owner-occupied housing (OOH) in a C...

Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X Multivariate Analysis of Rwanda ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate and Nominal Growth. Domestic ... Economic Indicators using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. 1540 ... useful for describing the dynamic behavior of economic and financial time series and for.

Price control in contracts of heat supply. May no more index be used in automatic price escalator clauses?; Preiskontrolle in Waermeliefervertraegen.. Darf in automatischen Preisgleitklauseln kein Index mehr genutzt werden?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Legler, Dirk [Guenther Heidel Wollenteit Hack Goldmann, Hamburg (Germany)

2010-03-15

Automatic price escalator clauses using a price index are AGB legally permissible in heat supply contracts. The fact that such price indices necessarily compound and orient themselves only at its own development of delivery costs is so long innocuous since the selection of these indices essentially can be justified on the basis of objective criteria. However, if the heat supplier as a user of the AGB uses no indices, but passes its costs of acquisition in its price escalator clause simply to 100 %, this evenly can be inadmissible according to paragraph 24 sect. 3, sentence 1 of AVB district heating regulation. This is valid if such a 'servile' passing signifies a neglect of conditions on the market.

5 CFR 591.224 - How does OPM adjust price indexes between surveys?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... REGULATIONS ALLOWANCES AND DIFFERENTIALS Cost-of-Living Allowance and Post Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living Allowances § 591.224 How does OPM adjust price indexes between surveys? (a) OPM adjusts...

Pricing Equity-Indexed Annuities under Stochastic Interest Rates Using Copulas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrice Gaillardetz

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a consistent evaluation approach for equity-linked insurance products under stochastic interest rates. This pricing approach requires that the premium information of standard insurance products is given exogenously. In order to evaluate equity-linked products, we derive three martingale probability measures that reproduce the information from standard insurance products, interest rates, and equity index. These risk adjusted martingale probability measures are determined using copula theory and evolve with the stochastic interest rate process. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.

Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

OpenAIRE

Verheyen, Florian

2010-01-01

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link be...

Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

2018-01-01

We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative binding characteristics of Tc-CPI, Tc-TBI, and Tc-MIBI in cultured heart cells: Correlation with biochemical analysis and animal images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piwnica-Worms, D.; Kronauge, J.F.; Holman, B.L.; Davison, A.; Jones, A.G.

1987-01-01

Hexakis (isonitrile)technetium (I) complexes are a new class of cationic, lipophilic myocaridal perfusion imaging agents. To better understand their cellular mechanisms of uptake and washout, chick heart cells grown in culture were used as a model myocardial system. Tc-MIBI showed uptake to a plateau at a rate similar to Tc-CPI (t1/2 = 4.1 +- 0.7 minutes); however, the plateau was 63% greater. Tc-TBI uptake approached a plateau 900% greater than Tc-CPI binding. Heart cell studies showed washout of Tc-CPI>Tc-TBI>Tc-MIBI, which correlated with kinetic analysis of rabbit myocardial images. Biochemical in vitro analysis in human plasma demonstrated 75% enzymatic ester hydrolysis of Tc-CPI by 3 minutes, but no hydrolysis of Tc-TBI and Tc-MIBI. The results suggest that metabolism of the ester function of Tc-CPI following myocardial uptake may in part account for the more rapid cellular washout rates of Tc-CPI compared with Tc-TBI and Tc-MIBI

Cerebral Pulsatility Index Is Elevated in Patients with Elevated Right Atrial Pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lahiri, Shouri; Schlick, Konrad H; Padrick, Matthew M; Rinsky, Brenda; Gonzalez, Nestor; Jones, Heather; Mayer, Stephan A; Lyden, Patrick D

2018-01-01

Extracerebral venous congestion can precipitate intracranial hypertension due to obstruction of cerebral blood outflow. Conditions that increase right atrial pressure, such as hypervolemia, are thought to increase resistance to jugular venous outflow and contribute to cerebro-venous congestion. Cerebral pulsatility index (CPI) is considered a surrogate marker of distal cerebrovascular resistance and is elevated with intracranial hypertension. Thus, we sought to test the hypothesis that elevated right atrial pressure is associated with increased CPI compared to normal right atrial pressure. We retrospectively reviewed 61 consecutive patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage. We calculated CPI from transcranial Doppler studies and correlated these with echocardiographic measures of right atrial pressure. CPIs were compared from patients with elevated and normal right atrial pressure. There was a significant difference between CPI obtained from all patients with elevated right atrial pressure compared to those with normal right atrial pressure (P right and left hemispheric CPI from patients with both elevated and normal right atrial pressure. Patients with elevated right atrial pressure had significantly higher CPI compared to patients with normal right atrial pressure. These findings suggest that cerebro-venous congestion due to impaired jugular venous outflow may increase distal cerebrovascular resistance as measured by CPI. Since elevated CPI is associated with poor outcome in numerous neurological conditions, future studies are needed to elucidate the significance of these results in other populations. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Neuroimaging.

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Real Property Price Index From Case Study Research In Istanbul/Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Denli, H. H.; Koc, Z.

2015-12-01

Estimation of real properties depending on standards is difficult to apply in time and location. Regression analysis construct mathematical models which describe or explain relationships that may exist between variables. The problem of identifying price differences of properties to obtain a price index can be converted into a regression problem, and standard techniques of regression analysis can be used to estimate the index. Considering regression analysis for real estate valuation, which are presented in real marketing process with its current characteristics and quantifiers, the method will help us to find the effective factors or variables in the formation of the value. In this study, prices of housing for sale in Zeytinburnu, a district in Istanbul, are associated with its characteristics to find a price index, based on information received from a real estate web page. The associated variables used for the analysis are age, size in m2, number of floors having the house, floor number of the estate and number of rooms. The price of the estate represents the dependent variable, whereas the rest are independent variables. Prices from 60 real estates have been used for the analysis. Same price valued locations have been found and plotted on the map and equivalence curves have been drawn identifying the same valued zones as lines.

Evolution of the CP-I sector of the Cerro Prieto geothermal reservoir, BC, and exploitation alternatives; Evolucion del sector CP-I del yacimiento geotermico de Cerro Prieto, BC, y alternativas de explotacion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez Rodriguez, Marco Helio [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Gerencia de Proyectos Geotermoelectricos, Residencia General de Cerro Prieto, Mexicali, Baja California (Mexico)]. E-mail: marco.rodriguez01@cfe.gob.mx

2010-01-15

After 35 years of exploitation of the CP-I (Cerro Prieto I) sector of the Cerro Prieto geothermal field, its thermal conditions have been declined substantially; the number of production wells is reduced and exploitation has been abandoned in some zones. However with a binary cycle, it is still possible to generate electricity from the remaining reservoir energy. To do so, one needs to know a detailed reservoir history of the sector, identifying the best potential strata to be assessed. In this paper, the CP-I reservoir evolution is presented and its exploitation and main reservoir characteristics -which play important roles- are identified. The CP-I zones offering the best conditions for binary cycle exploitation are identified. Exploiting partially abandoned reservoir sections is crucial for the future of the field. If such sections can be made to produce, this will help reduce the progressive steam-production decline in the occurring since production began. The production decline had been mitigated by a large area available for drilling replacement production wells, but such an area is limited now, due to the vast number of operating wells. [Spanish] Despues de 35 anos de explotacion del yacimiento en el sector de CP-I (Cerro Prieto I) del campo geotermico de Cerro Prieto, BC, sus condiciones termicas han declinado considerablemente, por lo que el numero de pozos productores ha disminuido, dejando algunas zonas abandonadas a la explotacion. Sin embargo, aun es posible aprovechar la energia que contiene este sector del yacimiento para la generacion de electricidad mediante ciclo binario. Para ello primeramente se debe conocer en detalle cual ha sido la evolucion del yacimiento en este sector, identificando los estratos de mejor potencial para evaluarlos posteriormente. En este estudio se presenta la evolucion del yacimiento de CP-I como respuesta a su explotacion, identificando las principales caracteristicas del yacimiento que determinan su comportamiento. Asi

ECONOMICAL PLANS EFFECTS ON CHARCOAL PRICES

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José Luiz Pereira Rezende

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Energy is essential for human needs satisfaction. With the evolution of machinery, man becomes more and more dependent on the energy stocked in fossil fuels, comparatively to the primitive economy. Wood charcoal is a thermal-reducer used in Brazilian pig iron and steel industries, and its price is formed in an oligopsonic market. Over time, the charcoal prices have varied in function of endogenous and exogenous factors, needing, therefore, to be deflated so that they can be compared in two or more points in time. This work analyzed the variations of charcoal real prices, in national currency; compared and analyzed the real charcoal price in nominal and in real US Dollar and; analyzed the real prices of charcoal, comparatively to the real oil prices. The analyses were accomplished in the period from January 1975 to December 2002. The time series of charcoal prices, in domestic currency were deflated using IGP-DI, considering august, 1994=100, and charcoal prices were also converted to American dollar and deflated using CPI, considering the period 1982-84=100. It was compared, then, the real and nominal charcoal prices. It concluded that the real charcoal prices in Brazilian domestic currency, or in American dollar, presented a decreasing tendency along time. The inflationary disarray, in the 80´s and the first half of the 90 ´s, provoked a big price variation in the period; from the beginning the XXI century, charcoal prices were more influenced by the exchange rate; in the energy crisis period, charcoal prices suffered big changes that, however, did not persist along time.

The effectiveness of CPI model to improve positive attitude toward science (PATS) for pre-service physics teacher

Science.gov (United States)

Sunarti, T.; Wasis; Madlazim; Suyidno; Prahani, B. K.

2018-03-01

In the previous research, learning material based Construction, Production, and Implementation (CPI) model has been developed to improve scientific literacy and positive attitude toward science for pre-service physics teacher. CPI model has 4 phases, included: 1) Motivation; 2) Construction (Cycle I); 3) Production (Cycle II); and 4) Evaluation. This research is aimed to analyze the effectiveness of CPI model towards the improvement Positive Attitude toward Science (PATS) for pre-service physics teacher. This research used one group pre-test and post-test design on 160 pre-service physics teacher divided into 4 groups at Lambung Mangkurat University and Surabaya State University (Indonesia), academic year 2016/2017. Data collection was conducted through questioner, observation, and interview. Positive attitude toward science for pre-service physics teacher measurement were conducted through Positive Attitude toward Science Evaluation Sheet (PATSES). The data analysis technique was done by using Wilcoxon test and n-gain. The results showed that there was a significant increase in positive attitude toward science for pre-service physics teacher at α = 5%, with n-gain average of high category. Thus, the CPI model is effective for improving positive attitude toward science for pre-service physics teacher.

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Jakarta Islamic Index-L 45: Rate Financial Performance, Beta Stocks and Stock Price in Indonesian Stock Exchange

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Tajus Subqi

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This research had analyzed the effect of financial performance and stock beta (systematic risk towards stock price of eight listed companies in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII – LQ 45 for the time period of 2012-2014. The data was gathered by employing literature study and documentation of financial statements. Multiple regressions are used to measure the effect of independent variable towards dependent variable along with ttest and F test. The results based on overall test suggested that only ROE and NPM had opposite direction correlation with the stock price, meanwhile other variables had positive direction correlation. From partial test with 5% level of significance, only EPS and PER had significant effect on stock price while other variables had no effect.   Keywords: financial performance analysis, stock price, stock beta (systematic risk, Jakarta Islamic Index

Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

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Ernest Kissi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

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Norliza Ahmad

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI, Industry Production Index (IPI, Consumer Price Index (CPI and interest rates (IR on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS and Corporate Bonds (CBs for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The findings support the expected hypotheses that CPI and IR are the major drivers that influence the changes in MGS yield spreads. However IPI and KLCI have weak and no influence on MGS yield spreads respectively Whilst IR, CPI and IPI have significant influence on the yield spreads of CB1, CB2 and CB3, KLCI has significant influence only on the CB1 yield spread but not on CB2 and CB3 yield spreads.

31 CFR 359.11 - What is the semiannual inflation rate?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the semiannual inflation rate... BONDS, SERIES I General Information § 359.11 What is the semiannual inflation rate? The index used to determine the semiannual inflation rate is the non-seasonally adjusted CPI-U (the Consumer Price Index for...

A Positive Control for Detection of Functional CD4 T Cells in PBMC: The CPI Pool.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiller, Annemarie; Zhang, Ting; Li, Ruliang; Duechting, Andrea; Sundararaman, Srividya; Przybyla, Anna; Kuerten, Stefanie; Lehmann, Paul V

2017-12-07

Testing of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) for immune monitoring purposes requires verification of their functionality. This is of particular concern when the PBMC have been shipped or stored for prolonged periods of time. While the CEF (Cytomegalo-, Epstein-Barr and Flu-virus) peptide pool has become the gold standard for testing CD8 cell functionality, a positive control for CD4 cells is so far lacking. The latter ideally consists of proteins so as to control for the functionality of the antigen processing and presentation compartments, as well. Aiming to generate a positive control for CD4 cells, we first selected 12 protein antigens from infectious/environmental organisms that are ubiquitous: Varicella, Influenza, Parainfluenza, Mumps, Cytomegalovirus, Streptococcus , Mycoplasma , Lactobacillus , Neisseria , Candida , Rubella, and Measles. Of these antigens, three were found to elicited interferon (IFN)-γ-producing CD4 cells in the majority of human test subjects: inactivated cytomegalo-, parainfluenza-, and influenza virions (CPI). While individually none of these three antigens triggered a recall response in all donors, the pool of the three (the 'CPI pool'), did. One hundred percent of 245 human donors tested were found to be CPI positive, including Caucasians, Asians, and African-Americans. Therefore, the CPI pool appears to be suitable to serve as universal positive control for verifying the functionality of CD4 and of antigen presenting cells.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method

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Fei Lung Yuen

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.

Determining the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes of PFI data in central region Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad Kamaruddin, Saadi Bin; Md Ghani, Nor Azura; Mohamed Ramli, Norazan

2013-04-01

The concept of Private Financial Initiative (PFI) has been implemented by many developed countries as an innovative way for the governments to improve future public service delivery and infrastructure procurement. However, the idea is just about to germinate in Malaysia and its success is still vague. The major phase that needs to be given main attention in this agenda is value for money whereby optimum efficiency and effectiveness of each expense is attained. Therefore, at the early stage of this study, estimating unitary charges or materials price indexes in each region in Malaysia was the key objective. This particular study aims to discover the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes in construction industry by different regions in the central region of Peninsular Malaysia (Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka). The unitary charges indexes data used were from year 2002 to 2011 monthly data of different states in the central region Peninsular Malaysia, comprising price indexes of aggregate, sand, steel reinforcement, ready mix concrete, bricks and partition, roof material, floor and wall finishes, ceiling, plumbing materials, sanitary fittings, paint, glass, steel and metal sections, timber and plywood. At the end of the study, it was found that Backpropagation Neural Network with linear transfer function produced the most accurate and reliable results for estimating unitary charges price indexes in every states in central region Peninsular Malaysia based on the Root Mean Squared Errors, where the values for both estimation and evaluation sets were approximately zero and highly significant at p Malaysia. The estimated price indexes of construction materials will contribute significantly to the value for money of PFI as well as towards Malaysian economical growth.

A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

OpenAIRE

Kenneth W Clements; Yihui Lan

2006-01-01

Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

A new technique, combined plication-incision (CPI, for correction of penile curvature

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Hamed Abdalla Hamed

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction Penile curvature (PC can be surgically corrected by either corporoplasty or plication techniques. These techniques can be complicated by post-operative: penile shortening, recurrent PC, painful/palpable suture knots and erectile dysfunction. Objective To avoid the complications of corporoplasty and plication techniques using a new technique: combined plication-incision (CPI. Materials and Methods Two groups (1&2 were operated upon: group 1 using CPI and group 2 using the 16-dot technique. In CPI, dots were first marked as in 16 dot technique. In each group of 4 dots the superficial layer of tunica albuginea was transversely incised (3-6mm at the first and last dots. Ethibond 2/0, passed through the interior edge of the first incision plicating the intermediate 2 dots and passed out of the interior edge of the last incision, was tightened and ligated. Vicryle 4/0, passed through the exterior edges of the incisions, was tightened and ligated to cover the ethibond knot. Results Twelve (57.1 % participants in group 2 complained of a bothering palpable knot compared to none in group 1 with statistically significant difference (P=0.005. Postoperative shortening (5mm of erect penis, encountered in 9 participants, was doubled in group 2 but with insignificant difference (P>0.05. Post-operative recurrence of PC, was encountered in only 1 (4.8% participant in group 2, compared to none in group 1, with insignificant difference (P>0.05. Post-operative erectile rigidity was normally maintained in all participants. Conclusion The new technique was superior to the 16-dot technique for correction of PC.

The Effect of Consumer Expectation Index, Economic Condition Index and Crude Oil Price on Indonesian Government Bond Yield

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Benny Budiawan Tjandrasa

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Governments sell bonds to finance their budget. The investors willing to buy government bonds because of the yield they will get, but on the other hand if government bond yields is  too high it would burden the state in paying the interest due. Various studies have been done to find the variables that affect government bond yield significantly, such as exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and oil price. This study found two more variables namely consumer expectations index and the economic conditions index to complement the variables that have been discovered. Those two variables are used as a proxy of economic stability of a country, the increase of those variables represent the increase of economic stability and will reduce the level of risk and lowering the yield that investors demand. This research use descriptive method and explanatory study with secondary data using multivariate regression equation model. The results shown consumer expectation index and economic condition index have significant effect on Indonesian Government Bond yield. To keep consumer expectation index and economic condition index increase government should give a positive signal and a sense of security to investor.

Inflation Insurance

OpenAIRE

Zvi Bodie

1989-01-01

A contract to insure $1 against inflation is equivalent to a European call option on the consumer price index. When there is no deductible this call option is equivalent to a forward contract on the CPI. Its price is the difference between the prices of a zero coupon real bond and a zero coupon nominal bond, both free of default risk. Provided that the risk-free real rate of interest is positive, the price of such an inflation insurance policy first rises and then falls with time to maturity....

FACTORS INFLUENCING YIELD SPREADS OF THE MALAYSIAN BONDS

OpenAIRE

Norliza Ahmad; Joriah Muhammad; Tajul Ariffin Masron

2009-01-01

Malaysian bond market is developing rapidly but not much is understood in terms of macroeconomic factors that could influence the yield spread of the Ringgit Malaysian denominated bonds. Based on a multifactor model, this paper examines the impact of four macroeconomic factors namely: Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), Industry Production Index (IPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and interest rates (IR) on bond yield spread of the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Corporate Bonds (CBs...

A Phase I Study of CPI-613 in Combination with High-Dose Cytarabine and Mitoxantrone for Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardee, Timothy S; Anderson, Rebecca G; Pladna, Kristin M; Isom, Scott; Ghiraldeli, Lais P; Miller, Lance D; Chou, Jeff W; Jin, Guangxu; Zhang, Wei; Ellis, Leslie R; Berenzon, Dmitriy; Howard, Dianna S; Hurd, David D; Manuel, Megan; Dralle, Sarah; Lyerly, Susan; Powell, Bayard L

2018-05-01

Purpose: CPI-613, a lipoate analogue that inhibits pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) and α-ketogluterate dehydrogenase (KGDH), has activity in patients with myeloid malignancies. This study explored the role of mitochondrial metabolism in chemotherapy response and determined the MTD, efficacy, and safety of CPI-613 combined with high-dose cytarabine and mitoxantrone in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia. Experimental Design: The role of mitochondrial response to chemotherapy was assessed in cell lines and animal models. A phase I study of CPI-613 plus cytarabine and mitoxantrone was conducted in patients with relapsed or refractory AML. Results: Exposure to chemotherapy induced mitochondrial oxygen consumption that depended on PDH. CPI-613 sensitized AML cells to chemotherapy indicating that mitochondrial metabolism is a source of resistance. Loss of p53 did not alter response to CPI-613. The phase I study enrolled 67 patients and 62 were evaluable for response. The overall response rate was 50% (26CR+5CRi/62). Median survival was 6.7 months. In patients over 60 years old, the CR/CRi rate was 47% (15/32) with a median survival of 6.9 months. The response rate for patients with poor-risk cytogenetics also was encouraging with 46% (11/24 patients) achieving a CR or CRi. RNA sequencing analysis of a subset of baseline bone marrow samples revealed a gene expression signature consistent with the presence of B cells in the pretreatment marrow of responders. Conclusions: The addition of CPI-613 to chemotherapy is a promising approach in older patients and those with poor-risk cytogenetics. Clin Cancer Res; 24(9); 2060-73. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

The Physiological Functions and Structural Determinants of Catalytic Bias in the [FeFe]-Hydrogenases CpI and CpII of Clostridium pasteurianum Strain W5

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Jesse B. Therien

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The first generation of biochemical studies of complex, iron-sulfur-cluster-containing [FeFe]-hydrogenases and Mo-nitrogenase were carried out on enzymes purified from Clostridium pasteurianum (strain W5. Previous studies suggested that two distinct [FeFe]-hydrogenases are expressed differentially under nitrogen-fixing and non-nitrogen-fixing conditions. As a result, the first characterized [FeFe]-hydrogenase (CpI is presumed to have a primary role in central metabolism, recycling reduced electron carriers that accumulate during fermentation via proton reduction. A role for capturing reducing equivalents released as hydrogen during nitrogen fixation has been proposed for the second hydrogenase, CpII. Biochemical characterization of CpI and CpII indicated CpI has extremely high hydrogen production activity in comparison to CpII, while CpII has elevated hydrogen oxidation activity in comparison to CpI when assayed under the same conditions. This suggests that these enzymes have evolved a catalytic bias to support their respective physiological functions. Using the published genome of C. pasteurianum (strain W5 hydrogenase sequences were identified, including the already known [NiFe]-hydrogenase, CpI, and CpII sequences, and a third hydrogenase, CpIII was identified in the genome as well. Quantitative real-time PCR experiments were performed in order to analyze transcript abundance of the hydrogenases under diazotrophic and non-diazotrophic growth conditions. There is a markedly reduced level of CpI gene expression together with concomitant increases in CpII gene expression under nitrogen-fixing conditions. Structure-based analyses of the CpI and CpII sequences reveal variations in their catalytic sites that may contribute to their alternative physiological roles. This work demonstrates that the physiological roles of CpI and CpII are to evolve and to consume hydrogen, respectively, in concurrence with their catalytic activities in vitro, with Cp

The Physiological Functions and Structural Determinants of Catalytic Bias in the [FeFe]-Hydrogenases CpI and CpII of Clostridium pasteurianum Strain W5

Science.gov (United States)

Therien, Jesse B.; Artz, Jacob H.; Poudel, Saroj; Hamilton, Trinity L.; Liu, Zhenfeng; Noone, Seth M.; Adams, Michael W. W.; King, Paul W.; Bryant, Donald A.; Boyd, Eric S.; Peters, John W.

2017-01-01

The first generation of biochemical studies of complex, iron-sulfur-cluster-containing [FeFe]-hydrogenases and Mo-nitrogenase were carried out on enzymes purified from Clostridium pasteurianum (strain W5). Previous studies suggested that two distinct [FeFe]-hydrogenases are expressed differentially under nitrogen-fixing and non-nitrogen-fixing conditions. As a result, the first characterized [FeFe]-hydrogenase (CpI) is presumed to have a primary role in central metabolism, recycling reduced electron carriers that accumulate during fermentation via proton reduction. A role for capturing reducing equivalents released as hydrogen during nitrogen fixation has been proposed for the second hydrogenase, CpII. Biochemical characterization of CpI and CpII indicated CpI has extremely high hydrogen production activity in comparison to CpII, while CpII has elevated hydrogen oxidation activity in comparison to CpI when assayed under the same conditions. This suggests that these enzymes have evolved a catalytic bias to support their respective physiological functions. Using the published genome of C. pasteurianum (strain W5) hydrogenase sequences were identified, including the already known [NiFe]-hydrogenase, CpI, and CpII sequences, and a third hydrogenase, CpIII was identified in the genome as well. Quantitative real-time PCR experiments were performed in order to analyze transcript abundance of the hydrogenases under diazotrophic and non-diazotrophic growth conditions. There is a markedly reduced level of CpI gene expression together with concomitant increases in CpII gene expression under nitrogen-fixing conditions. Structure-based analyses of the CpI and CpII sequences reveal variations in their catalytic sites that may contribute to their alternative physiological roles. This work demonstrates that the physiological roles of CpI and CpII are to evolve and to consume hydrogen, respectively, in concurrence with their catalytic activities in vitro, with CpII capturing excess

44 CFR 206.110 - Federal assistance to individuals and households.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... emergency. FEMA will adjust the $25,000 limit annually to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers that the Department of Labor publishes. (c) Multiple types of assistance. One..., convenience to the individuals and households and the suitability and availability of the types of assistance...

40 CFR 35.162 - Basis for allotment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Environmental Program Grants Water Pollution Control (section 106) § 35.162... are presented in Table 1 of this section, with their associated elements, sub-elements, and supporting... made on the basis of the cumulative change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the U.S...

47 CFR 1.1117 - Adjustments to charges.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

.... (1) The fees will be adjusted by the Commission to reflect the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) from the date of enactment of the authorizing legislation... these decisions be subject to petitions for reconsideration under § 1.429 of the rules. Requests for...

The measurement of house prices : A review of the sale price appraisal ratio method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Haan, J.; Van der Wal, E.B.; De Vries, P.

2009-01-01

The sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method has been applied in a number of countries to construct house price indexes. This paper reviews the statistical and index number properties of the SPAR approach. Three types of SPAR indexes are distinguished: a weighted index, which aims at tracking the

Estimating Drug Costs: How do Manufacturer Net Prices Compare with Other Common US Price References?

Science.gov (United States)

Mattingly, T Joseph; Levy, Joseph F; Slejko, Julia F; Onwudiwe, Nneka C; Perfetto, Eleanor M

2018-05-12

Drug costs are frequently estimated in economic analyses using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), but what is the best approach to develop these estimates? Pharmaceutical manufacturers recently released transparency reports disclosing net price increases after accounting for rebates and other discounts. Our objective was to determine whether manufacturer net prices (MNPs) could approximate the discounted prices observed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We compared the annual, average price discounts voluntarily reported by three pharmaceutical manufacturers with the VA price for specific products from each company. The top 10 drugs by total sales reported from company tax filings for 2016 were included. The discount observed by the VA was determined from each drug's list price, reported as WAC, in 2016. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the VA discount observed and a weighted price index was calculated using the lowest price to the VA (Weighted VA Index), which was compared with the manufacturer index. The discounted price as a percentage of the WAC ranged from 9 to 74%. All three indexes estimated by the average discount to the VA were at or below the manufacturer indexes (42 vs. 50% for Eli Lilly, 56 vs. 65% for Johnson & Johnson, and 59 vs. 59% for Merck). Manufacturer-reported average net prices may provide a close approximation of the average discounted price granted to the VA, suggesting they may be a useful proxy for the true pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or payer cost. However, individual discounts for products have wide variation, making a standard discount adjustment across multiple products less acceptable.

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

A Comparative Analysis of the Price Index in Transition Countries in the Time of Globalisation

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Pejović Igor

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Globalisation with all its features can be divided in two segments - good and bad. When we look at the good side of globalisation, it is obvious that it has erased boundaries between countries in terms of trade, education, knowledge sharing, and other new technologies, while on the other hand, the bad side is that it has created a considerable gap between developed and developing countries, then different types of commercial, political and other conditioning, and dependence on strong, developed states. A great contribution to the negative part of globalisation was of economic instability that occurred at the beginning of this century and which consequences are still present in the world. In this article, we presented the impact of economic instability on the price index trough a comparative analysis of transition countries such as Montenegro, Serbia and Croatia over a period of five years (Croatia has just recently become a member of the European Union and due to that fact it was included in this study. The survey covered price indices relating to the prices of industrial products for the domestic markets, consumer price indices, indices of the hospitality services and the prices of the agricultural products.

Towards inflation targeting in Egypt: the relationship between exchange rate and inflation

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Aliaa Khodeir

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI and wholesale price index (WPI. In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of ‘flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime’.

The Preoperative Composite Physiologic Index May Predict Mortality in Lung Cancer Patients with Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueno, Fumika; Kitaguchi, Yoshiaki; Shiina, Takayuki; Asaka, Shiho; Miura, Kentaro; Yasuo, Masanori; Wada, Yosuke; Yoshizawa, Akihiko; Hanaoka, Masayuki

2017-01-01

It remains unclear whether the preoperative pulmonary function parameters and prognostic indices that are indicative of nutritional and immunological status are associated with prognosis in lung cancer patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) who have undergone surgery. The aim of this study is to identify prognostic determinants in these patients. The medical records of all patients with lung cancer associated with CPFE who had undergone surgery at Shinshu University Hospital were retrospectively reviewed to obtain clinical data, including the results of preoperative pulmonary function tests and laboratory examinations, chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and survival. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that a high pathological stage of the lung cancer, a higher preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, and a higher preoperative composite physiologic index (CPI) were associated with a high risk of death. Multivariate analysis showed that a high pathological stage of the lung cancer (HR: 1.579; p = 0.0305) and a higher preoperative CPI (HR: 1.034; p = 0.0174) were independently associated with a high risk of death. In contrast, the severity of fibrosis or emphysema on chest HRCT, the individual pulmonary function parameters, the prognostic nutritional index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio were not associated with prognosis. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the log-rank test showed significant differences in survival between the high-CPI and the low-CPI group (p = 0.0234). The preoperative CPI may predict mortality and provide more powerful prognostic information than individual pulmonary function parameters in lung cancer patients with CPFE who have undergone surgery. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Fuzzy-VIKOR analysis for customer performance index of civil domestic airline industry in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suman Saket

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the factor influencing on an airline carrier based on operations of an airport on the routes flown out of that airport. This study deals with evaluation of the Customer Performance index (CPI of distinct domestic civil airlines in India. CPI consists of various parameters; among them many disembodied parameters, which are difficult to measure. In this context, initially we identified the prime factors that are crucial for evaluation of performances provided by various airlines in India. Thereafter, in order to determine the hierarchy among these factors; modified digital logic (MDL approach is employed and cost is found to be the most important criteria. Furthermore, CPI is calculated using fuzzy-VIKOR approach. Such approaches can help the airlines in re-evaluating their current policies and then formulate comparatively more efficient market strategies to improve performance quality and to gain customers’ loyalty.

20 CFR 655.65 - Remedies for violations.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the U.S. City Average for All Items... assessment by the Administrator, or upon the decision by an administrative law judge where a hearing is timely requested, or upon the decision by the Secretary where review is granted. The employer shall remit...

Index options : Pricing, implied densities and returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boes, M.J.

2006-01-01

Chapter 2 gives an overview of the literature that is directly related to the topics studied in this thesis. In Chapter 3 the impact of overnight periods on option prices is examined by estimating an option pricing model that takes overnight closures of exchanges explicitly into account. Chapter 4

20 CFR 655.810 - What remedies may be ordered if violations are found?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... adjustments are to be based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the U.S... by the Administrator, or upon the decision by an administrative law judge where a hearing is timely requested, or upon the decision by the Secretary where review is granted. The employer shall remit the...

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS ALLOWANCES AND DIFFERENTIALS Cost-of-Living Allowance and Post Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living Allowances § 591.228 How does OPM convert the price index plus...

Updated BG Prasad socioeconomic classification, 2014: a commentary.

Science.gov (United States)

Mangal, Abha; Kumar, Varun; Panesar, Sanjeet; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

2015-01-01

Modified BG Prasad socioeconomic scale is widely used to determine the socioeconomic status of study subjects in health studies in India. It is an income-based scale and, therefore, has to be constantly updated to take inflation and depreciation of rupee into account. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for industrial workers (IW) is used to calculate updated income categories for January 2014. Details of the calculations involved will enable young researchers to calculate specific income categories for their research work. State-specific CPI values are also available on the Department of Labour website and should be used to determine more accurate income categories for the study area.

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-Based Prediction Model for Periodontal Disease Updated With the Calibrated Community Periodontal Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Chiu-Wen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Lai, Hongmin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng

2017-12-01

The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet. A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models. Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

A FRAMEWORK FOR PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND MONITORING OF PUBLIC HEALTH PROGRAM USING COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE INDEX

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susanta Kumar Gauri

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A public health program (PHP taken up by the government of a country refers to all organized measures to prevent disease and promote health among the population, by providing different planned cares/services to the people. Usually, the target population for different PHP are different. The basic requirement for success of a PHP is to ensure that all the planned cares/services are reached to each member of the target population. Therefore, the important performance measures for a PHP are the implementation status of all the planned cares/services under the PHP. However, management and monitoring of a PHP become quite difficult by interpreting separately the information contained in a large number of performance measures. Therefore, usually a metric, called composite performance index (CPI, is evaluated to understand the overall performance of a PHP. However, due a scaling operation involved in the CPI computation procedure, the CPI value does not reveal the true overall implementation status of a PHP and consequently, it is effective for management of a PHP. This paper presents a new approach for CPI computation, in which scaling/normalization of the performance variables is not required and therefore, it can be used for monitoring the true overall implementation status of a PHP in a region. A systematic approach for monitoring a PHP using the CPI values is proposed and applied for monitoring the maternal and child healthcare (MCH program. The results are found effective towards continuous improvement of implementation status.

Do stock prices drive people crazy?

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

2015-03-01

This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Energy tax price tag for CPI: $1.2 billion, jobs, and production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Begley, R.

1993-01-01

If President Clinton's proposed energy tax had been fully in place last year, it would have cost the US chemical industry an additional $1.2 billion and 9,900 jobs, according to Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA; Washington) estimates. It also would have driven output down 3% and prices up 5%, CMA says. Allen Lenz, CMA director/trade and economics, says the increase in production costs that would accompany the tax will not be shared by foreign competitors, cannot be neutralized with higher border taxes because of existing trade agreements, and provides another reason to move production offshore. Worse, the US chemical industry's generally impressive trade surplus declined by $2.5 billion last year, and a further drop is projected for this year. The margin of error gets thinner all the time as competition increases, Lenz says. We're not concerned only with the chemical industry, but the rest of US-based manufacturing because they taken half our output, he adds. One problem is the energy intensiveness of the chemical process industries-a CMA report says that 55% of the cost of producing ethylene glycol is energy related. And double taxation of such things as coproducts returned for credit to oil refineries could add up to $115 million/year, the report says

Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javed Bin Kamal

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 1: Formulation and discretization issues using a numerical PDE approach

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the first installment in a two-part series, and focuses on the development of a numerical PDE approach to price components of a Bermudan-style callable catastrophe (CAT) bond. The bond is based on two underlying stochastic variables; the PCS index which posts quarterly estimates of industry-wide hurricane losses as well as a single-factor CIR interest rate model for the three-month LIBOR. The aggregate PCS index is analogous to losses claimed under traditional reinsurance in that it is used to specify a reinsurance layer. The proposed CAT bond model contains a Bermudan-style call feature designed to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making substantial fixed coupon payments using capital from the reinsurance premium. Numerical PDE methods are the fundamental strategy for pricing early-exercise constraints, such as the Bermudan-style call feature, into contingent claim models. Therefore, the objective and unique contribution of this first installment in the two-part series is to develop a formulation and discretization strategy for the proposed CAT bond model utilizing a numerical PDE approach. Object-oriented code design is fundamental to the numerical methods used to aggregate the PCS index, and implement the call feature. Therefore, object-oriented design issues that relate specifically to the development of a numerical PDE approach for the component of the proposed CAT bond model that depends on the PCS index and LIBOR are described here. Formulation, numerical methods and code design issues that relate to aggregating the PCS index and introducing the call option are the subject of the companion paper.

Core Indicators of Japan's Consumer Price Index

OpenAIRE

Shigenori Shiratsuka

2006-01-01

The primary objective of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in conducting monetary policy is to promote sustainable growth by achieving price stability. The price stability that needs to be achieved is regarded as not just short-term and temporary, but sustainable in the medium to long term, which is the common understanding among major central banks. To fulfill this mandate, the BOJ is required to identify the underlying trend of inflation by excluding various idiosyncratic disturbances from measured p...

Nonlinear Pricing to Produce Information

OpenAIRE

David J. Braden; Shmuel S. Oren

1994-01-01

We investigate the firm's dynamic nonlinear pricing problem when facing consumers whose tastes vary according to a scalar index. We relax the standard assumption that the firm knows the distribution of this index. In general the firm should determine its marginal price schedule as if it were myopic, and produce information by lowering the price schedule; “bunching” consumers at positive purchase levels should be avoided. As a special case we also consider a market characterized by homogeneous...

Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Backpropagation Using Conjugate Gradient Fletcher Reeves In The Predicting Process

Science.gov (United States)

Wanto, Anjar; Zarlis, Muhammad; Sawaluddin; Hartama, Dedy

2017-12-01

Backpropagation is a good artificial neural network algorithm used to predict, one of which is to predict the rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on the foodstuff sector. While conjugate gradient fletcher reeves is a suitable optimization method when juxtaposed with backpropagation method, because this method can shorten iteration without reducing the quality of training and testing result. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that will be predicted to come from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Pematangsiantar. The results of this study will be expected to contribute to the government in making policies to improve economic growth. In this study, the data obtained will be processed by conducting training and testing with artificial neural network backpropagation by using parameter learning rate 0,01 and target error minimum that is 0.001-0,09. The training network is built with binary and bipolar sigmoid activation functions. After the results with backpropagation are obtained, it will then be optimized using the conjugate gradient fletcher reeves method by conducting the same training and testing based on 5 predefined network architectures. The result, the method used can increase the speed and accuracy result.

The Use of the CPI to Ascertain Differences between More and Less Effective Student Paraprofessional Helpers.

Science.gov (United States)

German, Steven C.; Cottle, William C.

1981-01-01

A study of student paraprofessional peer counselors showed the California Psychological Inventory (CPI) to be useful in rating the effectiveness of Freshman Assistants. Results from individual criterion measures can also be applied to results from combinations of these measures. Future research should control for demographic influences. (JAC)

Does the CPI mirror costs-of-living? Engel's law suggests not in Norway

OpenAIRE

Larsen, Erling Røed

2004-01-01

There is considerable interest in identifying the magnitude of the difference between increases in CPI and costs-of-living, and this article uses the technique proposed by Hamilton (2001) to measure this discrepancy for Norway for the 90s. The method is extended along several dimensions by introducing a framework in which measurement errors are modelled. A non-parametric approach is then employed to segment households into demographic types while allowing for flexibility in costso...

Stop Misusing Higher Education-Specific Price Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Gillen, Andrew; Robe, Jonathan

2011-01-01

In order to compare the price of things over time, it is necessary to use a price index to adjust for inflation. The Higher Education Price Index (HEPI) and the Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA) were designed to more accurately account for the spending patterns of colleges and universities. However, there are some methodological problems…

BRAC and Crime: Examining the Effects of an Installation’s Closure on Local Crime

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

Community Survey AFF American Fact Finder BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics BJS Bureau of Justice Statistics BRAC Base Realignment and Closure CJIS...Criminal Justice Information Services CPI Consumer Price Index DD Difference-in-Differences DOD Department of Defense DOJ Department of Justice FBI...at the Naval Postgraduate School. The education received here will prove invaluable. I also want to acknowledge the unwavering support of my advisors

Asset pricing with index investing

OpenAIRE

Georgy Chabakauri; Oleg Rytchkov

2014-01-01

We provide a novel theoretical analysis of how index investing affects capital market equilibrium. We consider a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas trees and find that indexing can either increase or decrease the correlation between stock returns and in general increases (decreases) volatilities and betas of stocks with larger (smaller) market capitalizations. Indexing also decreases market volatility and interest rates, although those effects are weak. The im...

Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price

Science.gov (United States)

Suharsono, Agus; Aziza, Auliya; Pramesti, Wara

2017-12-01

Capital markets can be an indicator of the development of a country's economy. The presence of capital markets also encourages investors to trade; therefore investors need information and knowledge of which shares are better. One way of making decisions for short-term investments is the need for modeling to forecast stock prices in the period to come. Issue of stock market-stock integration ASEAN is very important. The problem is that ASEAN does not have much time to implement one market in the economy, so it would be very interesting if there is evidence whether the capital market in the ASEAN region, especially the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand deserve to be integrated or still segmented. Furthermore, it should also be known and proven What kind of integration is happening: what A capital market affects only the market Other capital, or a capital market only Influenced by other capital markets, or a Capital market as well as affecting as well Influenced by other capital markets in one ASEAN region. In this study, it will compare forecasting of Indonesian share price (IHSG) with neighboring countries (ASEAN) including developed and developing countries such as Malaysia (KLSE), Singapore (SGE), Thailand (SETI), Philippines (PSE) to find out which stock country the most superior and influential. These countries are the founders of ASEAN and share price index owners who have close relations with Indonesia in terms of trade, especially exports and imports. Stock price modeling in this research is using multivariate time series analysis that is VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Modeling). VAR and VECM models not only predict more than one variable but also can see the interrelations between variables with each other. If the assumption of white noise is not met in the VAR modeling, then the cause can be assumed that there is an outlier. With this modeling will be able to know the pattern of relationship

Cognitive Proficiency Index for the Canadian Edition of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Saklofske, Donald H.; Zhu, Jianjun; Coalson, Diane L.; Raiford, Susan E.; Weiss, Lawrence G.

2010-01-01

The Cognitive Proficiency Index (CPI) developed for the most recent Wechsler intelligence scales comprises the working memory and processing speed subtests. It reflects the proficiency and efficiency of cognitive processing and provides another lens for analyzing children's abilities assessed by the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Fourth…

The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher; Bashar, Omar H.M.N.; Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production (IPI). ► The transitory component of the oil price volatility has an adverse impact on the US IPI. ► The transitory oil price volatility induces higher volatility in CPI, commodity prices and IPI. -- Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on the US industrial production by decomposing oil price volatility into permanent and transitory components. The decompositions provide important evidence on sources and asymmetric effects of oil price volatility. To estimate the component structure of volatility and to analyse the dynamic impacts of the volatility components, the study uses a threshold based CGARCH and VAR modelling over a period from 1980 to 2010 for the US economy. The CGARCH model estimates show significant asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the transitory oil price volatility. Dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the estimated VAR models reveal that there is a significant and prolonged dampening impact of increased transitory oil price volatility on industrial production. The results also suggest that shocks to transitory component induce increased volatility in the general price level and non-fuel commodity prices in the US. Variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that the transitory volatility is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production. These results provide additional insights on the sources of oil price uncertainty and point to the need to direct US energy policies towards stabilising short-term uncertainties in oil prices.

A novel parameter, cell-cycle progression index, for radiation dose absorbed estimation in the premature chromosome condensation assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miura, Tomisato; Kasai, Kosuke; Nakano, Manabu; Nakata, Akifumi; Yoshida, Mitsuaki A.; Abe, Yu; Tsushima, Eiki; Ossetrova, Natalia I.; Blakely, William F.

2014-01-01

The calyculin A-induced premature chromosome condensation (PCC) assay is a simple and useful method for assessing the cell-cycle distribution in cells, since calyculin A induces chromosome condensation in various phases of the cell cycle. In this study, a novel parameter, the cell-cycle progression index (CPI), in the PCC assay was validated as a novel bio-marker for bio-dosimetry. Peripheral blood was drawn from healthy donors after informed consent was obtained. CPI was investigated using a human peripheral blood lymphocyte (PBL) ex vivo irradiation ( 60 Co-gamma rays: ∼0.6 Gy min -1 , or X ray: 1.0 Gy min -1 ; 0-10 Gy) model. The calyculin A-induced PCC assay was performed for chromosome preparation. PCC cells were divided into the following five categories according to cell-cycle stage: non-PCC, G1-PCC, S-PCC, G2/M-PCC and M/A-PCC cells. CPI was calculated as the ratio of G2/M-PCC cells to G1-PCC cells. The PCC-stage distribution varied markedly with irradiation doses. The G1-PCC cell fraction was significantly reduced, and the G2/M-PCC cell fraction increased, in 10-Gy-irradiated PBL after 48 h of culture. CPI levels were fitted to an exponential dose-response curve with gamma-ray irradiation [y = 0.6729 + 0.3934 exp(0.5685D), r = 1.0000, p < 0.0001] and X-ray irradiation [y = -0.3743 + 0.9744 exp(0.3321D), r = 0.9999, p < 0.0001]. There were no significant individual (p = 0.853) or gender effects (p = 0.951) on the CPI in the human peripheral blood ex vivo irradiation model. Furthermore, CPI measurements are rapid (< 15 min per case). These results suggest that the CPI is a useful screening tool for the assessment of radiation doses received ranging from 0 to 10 Gy in radiation exposure early after a radiation event, especially after a mass-casualty radiological incident. (authors)

Pharmaceutical policies: effects of reference pricing, other pricing, and purchasing policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta, Angela; Ciapponi, Agustín; Aaserud, Morten; Vietto, Valeria; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Kösters, Jan Peter; Vacca, Claudia; Machado, Manuel; Diaz Ayala, Diana Hazbeydy; Oxman, Andrew D

2014-10-16

Pharmaceuticals are important interventions that could improve people's health. Pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies are used as cost-containment measures to determine or affect the prices that are paid for drugs. Internal reference pricing establishes a benchmark or reference price within a country which is the maximum level of reimbursement for a group of drugs. Other policies include price controls, maximum prices, index pricing, price negotiations and volume-based pricing. To determine the effects of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies on health outcomes, healthcare utilisation, drug expenditures and drug use. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), part of The Cochrane Library (including the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group Register) (searched 22/10/2012); MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and MEDLINE, Ovid (searched 22/10/2012); EconLit, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); PAIS International, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); World Wide Political Science Abstracts, ProQuest (searched 22/10/2012); INRUD Bibliography (searched 22/10/2012); Embase, Ovid (searched 14/12/2010); NHSEED, part of The Cochrane Library (searched 08/12/2010); LILACS, VHL (searched 14/12/2010); International Political Science Abstracts (IPSA), Ebsco (searched (17/12/2010); OpenSIGLE (searched 21/12/10); WHOLIS, WHO (searched 17/12/2010); World Bank (Documents and Reports) (searched 21/12/2010); Jolis (searched 09/10/2011); Global Jolis (searched 09/10/2011) ; OECD (searched 30/08/2005); OECD iLibrary (searched 30/08/2005); World Bank eLibrary (searched 21/12/2010); WHO - The Essential Drugs and Medicines web site (browsed 21/12/2010). Policies in this review were defined as laws; rules; financial and administrative orders made by governments, non-government organisations or private insurers. To be included a study had to include an objective measure of at least one of the following outcomes: drug use

Price and utilisation differences for statins between four countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Thai, Loc Phuoc; Vitry, Agnes Isabelle; Moss, John Robert

2018-02-01

Australia, England, France and New Zealand use different policies to regulate their medicines market, which can impact on utilisation and price. To compare the prices and utilisation of statins in Australia, England, France and New Zealand from 2011 to 2013. Utilisation of statins in the four countries was compared using Defined Daily Doses (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per year. Pairwise Laspeyres and Paasche index comparisons were conducted comparing the price and utilisation of statins. The results showed that the price of statins in New Zealand was the cheapest. The price of statins in Australia was most expensive in 2011 and 2012 but France was more expensive in 2013. There were large differences between the Laspeyres index and Paasche index when comparing the price and utilisation of England with Australia and France. The policies that regulate the New Zealand and England medicines markets were more effective in reducing the price of expensive statins. The relative utilisation of cheaper statins was greatest in England and had a large effect on the differences between the two index results. The pricing policies in Australia have been only partly effective in reducing the price of statins compared to other countries.

Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

OpenAIRE

Quinn, Terry; Mawdsley, Andrew

1996-01-01

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

2013-01-01

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

Bounds and inequalities relating h-index, g-index, e-index and generalized impact factor: an improvement over existing models.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbas, Ash Mohammad

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe some bounds and inequalities relating h-index, g-index, e-index, and generalized impact factor. We derive the bounds and inequalities relating these indexing parameters from their basic definitions and without assuming any continuous model to be followed by any of them. We verify the theorems using citation data for five Price Medalists. We observe that the lower bound for h-index given by Theorem 2, [formula: see text], g ≥ 1, comes out to be more accurate as compared to Schubert-Glanzel relation h is proportional to C(2/3)P(-1/3) for a proportionality constant of 1, where C is the number of citations and P is the number of papers referenced. Also, the values of h-index obtained using Theorem 2 outperform those obtained using Egghe-Liang-Rousseau power law model for the given citation data of Price Medalists. Further, we computed the values of upper bound on g-index given by Theorem 3, g ≤ (h + e), where e denotes the value of e-index. We observe that the upper bound on g-index given by Theorem 3 is reasonably tight for the given citation record of Price Medalists.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Qian Sun

Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Indexation of Consumer and Mortgage Credit in Iceland in 2014: A Critical Battle between Legality, Fairness and Legitimacy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Elvira Mendez Pinedo

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Six years after the financial crisis that led to the collapse of the banking system in 2008, the over-indebtedness of households is one of the most important problems in Iceland. This study aims to cast light on a specific feature of the Icelandic credit system in connection with the problem of over-indebtedness. The main research question is whether the end of indexation of credit is close or not. The author argues, in the first place, that indexation of credit ex-post to the consumer price index (CPI in negative amortization schemes is responsible for over-indebtedness. In the second place, the author describes the challenges ahead in the field of consumer and mortgage credit in Iceland in the light of European law (European Union EU and European Economic Area EEA. The incorporation of Directive 2008/48 on credit agreement for consumers to the Icelandic domestic order through the EEA Agreement allowed a preliminary legal review of the practice in light of EU/EEA consumer credit law, both at national and European level without a final conclusion. It has nevertheless led to the judicial review on the legality of some indexation alleged malpractices before national courts and to the EFTA Court for interpretation (mostly on Directives 93/13/EEC on unfair terms 87/102/EEC on consumer credit. A ruling from the Supreme Court is expected on several cases. A critical battle between the legality, the fairness and the legitimacy of indexation of credit is taking place in Iceland under the influence of European law.

PERMODELAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INTERVENSI MULTI INPUT

KAUST Repository

Novianti, Putri Wikie

2017-01-24

There are some events which are expected effecting CPI’s fluctuation, i.e. financial crisis 1997/1998, fuel price risings, base year changing’s, independence of Timor-Timur (October 1999), and Tsunami disaster in Aceh (December 2004). During re-search period, there were eight fuel price risings and four base year changing’s. The objective of this research is to obtain multi input intervention model which can des-cribe magnitude and duration of each event effected to CPI. Most of intervention re-searches that have been done are only contain of an intervention with single input, ei-ther step or pulse function. Multi input intervention was used in Indonesia CPI case because there are some events which are expected effecting CPI. Based on the result, those events were affecting CPI. Additionally, other events, such as Ied on January 1999, events on April 2002, July 2003, December 2005, and September 2008, were affecting CPI too. In general, those events gave positive effect to CPI, except events on April 2002 and July 2003 which gave negative effects.

Features of the Asynchronous Correlation between the China Coal Price Index and Coal Mining Accidental Deaths

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuecheng; Cheng, Wuyi; Luo, Sida; Luo, Yun; Ma, Chengchen; He, Tailin

2016-01-01

The features of the asynchronous correlation between accident indices and the factors that influence accidents can provide an effective reference for warnings of coal mining accidents. However, what are the features of this correlation? To answer this question, data from the China coal price index and the number of deaths from coal mining accidents were selected as the sample data. The fluctuation modes of the asynchronous correlation between the two data sets were defined according to the asynchronous correlation coefficients, symbolization, and sliding windows. We then built several directed and weighted network models, within which the fluctuation modes and the transformations between modes were represented by nodes and edges. Then, the features of the asynchronous correlation between these two variables could be studied from a perspective of network topology. We found that the correlation between the price index and the accidental deaths was asynchronous and fluctuating. Certain aspects, such as the key fluctuation modes, the subgroups characteristics, the transmission medium, the periodicity and transmission path length in the network, were analyzed by using complex network theory, analytical methods and spectral analysis method. These results provide a scientific reference for generating warnings for coal mining accidents based on economic indices. PMID:27902748

Oil price and food price volatility dynamics: The case of Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ijeoma C. Nwoko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study examines the long and short run relationships between oil price and food price volatility as well as the causal link between them. The study used annual food price volatility index from FAO from 2000 to 2013 and crude oil price from U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA from 2000 to 2013. The Johansen and Jesulius co-integration test revealed that there is a long run relationship between oil price and domestic food price volatility. The vector error correction model indicated a positive and significant short run relationship between oil price and food price volatility. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality with causality running from oil price to food price volatility but not vice versa. It is recommended that policies and interventions that will help reduce uncertainty about food prices such as improved market information, trade policies and investment in research and development among others should be encouraged. Also to reduce the effect of oil price shock, it is recommended that government should subsidise pump price of refined oil, seek alternative sources of energy and there should be less dependence on oil for fertilizer production.

An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Xiaowen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

Price discovery on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange: Examining ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Price discovery on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange: Examining the impact of the ... of price discovery aim to determine which market reflects new information first. ... This paper examines the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index, the Top 40 Index Futures ...

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq. An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron, Ken [United States Navy (United States); Schnusenberg, Oliver [Department of Accounting and Finance, Coggin College of Business, The University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224 (United States)

2009-05-15

There has been much speculation about the recent upsurge in crude oil prices and the effect it will have on the economy and business. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock prices of automobile manufacturers. We add an oil price factor, measured alternatively by the excess change in WTI crude oil prices or the excess return on an energy ETF, to the Fama-French three-factor model over the period March 20, 2001 to September 30, 2008. Our dependent variable is the excess return on a price-weighted index of automobile manufacturers. Results indicate that oil prices add value to the pricing model, particularly for manufacturers specializing in SUVs and for a subperiod following the Iraq invasion on March 19, 2003. (author)

Analisis Saham Syariah Efisien dengan Pendekatan Shari’a Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM pada Jakarta Islamic Index (JII

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zainul Hasan Quthbi

2017-10-01

Artikel ini bermaksud untuk menganalisis saham syariah yang tergolong efisien untuk keputusan investasi dengan menggunakan SCAPM (Shari’a Compliant Asset Pricing Model. SCAPM adalah bentuk modifikasi dari CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model yang bertujuan agar kerangka model analisis masih dalam kerangka syariah. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah dokumentasi dari data yang bersifat sekunder. Digunakan 13 sampel saham syariah pada penelitian ini dengan kriteria saham syariah yang konsisten masuk pada JII (Jakarta Islamic Index periode penelitian Desember 2013 hingga November 2016 dan memiliki pengembalian saham individual positif. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan terdapat 9 saham syariah yang tergolong efisien dan 4 sisanya tidak efisien. Saham PT. Adaro Energy memiliki nilai RVAR terbesar yang berarti memiliki kinerja saham paling baik.

Workforce Downsizing and Restructuring in the Department of Defense: The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Program Versus Involuntary Separation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

percentage of the pay bill for the force, consistent with OPM’s actuarial practice. This gives an amount—an accrual charge—sufficient to cover the...assigns to the FERS basic plan to reflect the actuarial liability included in govern- ment financial statements for FERS. For fiscal year 2015, OPM...bachelor of science degree BLS U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office CPI-U Consumer Price Index for All

The price of cigarettes in the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Montes, A; Villalbí, J R

2001-06-01

A major factor influencing tobacco use is its price. Fiscal policies on tobacco are a key ingredient of any comprehensive control strategy, as they can be used to raise prices. The European Union (EU) developed directives to ensure some harmonisation of the fiscal pressure on tobacco across its member states. To provide a simple comparison of tobacco prices in the EU, adjusting for the purchasing power of each currency. For price comparisons, a 20 units pack of Marlboro was the reference product, and data refer to April 2000. Purchasing power parities (PPP) for each member state currency have been compiled. These are currency conversion rates, which convert to a common currency and equalise the purchasing power of different currencies. Nominal prices of a Marlboro pack for each member state, and a price index, estimated taking as reference the EU mean. Adjusted prices and an adjusted price index have been estimated using PPP. Nominal prices show wide variation, with the cheapest pack in Portugal (59) and the most expensive in the UK (196); the range of variation is three-fold. However, PPP adjusted prices reveal a different distribution. In three countries adjusted prices are outliers, but all other countries make two clusters, one around the average EU index of 100, the other around a lower value of 85. These results suggest that fiscal harmonisation policies in the EU do not have an even effect at reducing availability by its impact in price.

Construindo monstros: discursos e representações sociais na CPI da pedofilia

OpenAIRE

Varela, Jeniffer Campos de A.

2010-01-01

Atualmente, em vários campos do convívio social e nos meios de comunicação de massa, o tema pedofilia tem sido largamente abordado. Os discursos proferidos revelam um alto grau de preocupação da sociedade com os fatos e seus protagonistas, como também refletem o anseio de contensão e punição dos atos de pedofilia. No Brasil a questão adquiriu tanta repercussão que o Senado Federal criou, em 25 de março de 2008, uma Comissão Parlamentar de Inquérito denominada CPI da Pedofili...

The price level and monetary policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles P. Kindleberger

2002-03-01

Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

電信零售價格調整上限制之研究 Comparative Study on the Price Cap Regulation of Telecom Retail Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

劉孔中 Kung-Chung Liu

2007-12-01

Full Text Available 各國自1980 年代開始自由化電信市場時，紛紛改採用較具有效率誘因的價格調整上限法管制零售價格，以電信業者技術或服務創新所帶來的效率增加⎯⎯所謂的效率因子或調整係數X 值⎯⎯扣除通貨膨脹或其他總體經濟變數變動後之數值，作為其調整價格之上限。國家通訊傳播委員會（NCC）審酌電信事業生產經營效率、各國費率水平及平均降幅、各國監理機關所訂X 值範圍及保障消費者權益等五個因素，於2006 年底公告新的X 值：ADSL電路出租為△CPI + 5.35%，900 兆赫及1800 兆赫行動電話業務中市話撥打行動電話的服務、預付資費方式的服務及月租型服務之不同費率選單中通信費單價最高者，均為△CPI + 4.88%。本文回顧實施零售價格調整上限制最有經驗的英國與美國聯邦（而不包括各州的零售價格管制），發現該制均盛極而衰，走向結束。本文檢討NCC 調整X 值之作法中三點可檢討之處：1.未要求中華電信舉證其ADSL 之成本與利潤，錯失進一步合理降低ADSL 價格的機會；2.要求連續三年調降月租型行動電話服務不同費率選單中通信費單價最高通信費4.88%，並非針對競爭不足的特定業務；3.未充分說明調整係數 X 之組成元素。本文最後點出事前管制零售價格的必要性會日益降低，故應該加強電信業者間資費管制的研究與規範。 When liberalizing telecom markets in the 1980s, countries world over adopted the price cap regime to regulate retail prices that telecom companies may charge their customers. Under price cap telecom companies may not raise the retail prices above the level where efficiency gains—commonly known as the efficiency factor or X factor－minus inflation rate. The National Communications Commission (NCC promulgated new X factors for various telecom services at the end of 2006: X for ADSL is

Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

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Daniele Girardi

2012-03-01

Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

Indexation and causation of financial markets

CERN Document Server

Tanokura, Yoko

2015-01-01

This book presents a new statistical method of constructing a price index of a financial asset where the price distributions are skewed and heavy-tailed and investigates the effectiveness of the method. In order to fully reflect the movements of prices or returns on a financial asset, the index should reflect their distributions. However, they are often heavy-tailed and possibly skewed, and identifying them directly is not easy. This book first develops an index construction method depending on the price distributions, by using nonstationary time series analysis. Firstly, the long-term trend of the distributions of the optimal Box–Cox transformed prices is estimated by fitting a trend model with time-varying observation noises. By applying state space modeling, the estimation is performed and missing observations are automatically interpolated. Finally, the index is defined by taking the inverse Box–Cox transformation of the optimal long-term trend. This book applies the method to various financial data. ...

Forecasting on the total volumes of Malaysia's imports and exports by multiple linear regression

Science.gov (United States)

Beh, W. L.; Yong, M. K. Au

2017-04-01

This study is to give an insight on the doubt of the important of macroeconomic variables that affecting the total volumes of Malaysia's imports and exports by using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The time frame for this study will be determined by using quarterly data of the total volumes of Malaysia's imports and exports covering the period between 2000-2015. The macroeconomic variables will be limited to eleven variables which are the exchange rate of US Dollar with Malaysia Ringgit (USD-MYR), exchange rate of China Yuan with Malaysia Ringgit (RMB-MYR), exchange rate of European Euro with Malaysia Ringgit (EUR-MYR), exchange rate of Singapore Dollar with Malaysia Ringgit (SGD-MYR), crude oil prices, gold prices, producer price index (PPI), interest rate, consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPI) and gross domestic product (GDP). This study has applied the Johansen Co-integration test to investigate the relationship among the total volumes to Malaysia's imports and exports. The result shows that crude oil prices, RMB-MYR, EUR-MYR and IPI play important roles in the total volumes of Malaysia's imports. Meanwhile crude oil price, USD-MYR and GDP play important roles in the total volumes of Malaysia's exports.

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

The influence of macroeconomic factors to the dynamics of stock exchange in the republic of Kazakhstan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shakizada Uteulievna Niyazbekova

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This article describes the influence of macroeconomic factors on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Market by using data from 2005 to 2014. Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that stock index is cointegrated with the exchange rate, interest rate, CPI and oil price. Vector error correction model has confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the stock index has a long-term equilibrium relationship. Moreover, empirical results have shown that stock index can be used as a leading indicator of the economic situation in Kazakhstan. Therefore, the authors decided to consider the impact of major macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of the stock market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Engle-Granger cointegration test results show that the following variables such as exchange rate, 10-years long-term bond rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price are cointegrated with stock index, which means that there is a long-term relationship between this stock market index and these variables. With the help of econometric models, the authors have found the factors such as the exchange rate, the 10-year long-term bonds rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price (these factors have the long-term relationship with stock market index. Changes in the dynamics of the stock market index in Kazakhstan are caused by changes in the dynamics of Central bank's reserves and export. The analysis has shown that the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the index reflects the situation in the real sector of the economy remains dependent on world oil prices, the volume of exports and the rate of the national currency

Price and Availability of Sugar-Free, Sugar-Reduced and Low Glycemic Index Cereal Products in Northwestern México.

Science.gov (United States)

Arámburo-Gálvez, Jesús G; Ontiveros, Noé; Vergara-Jiménez, Marcela J; Magaña-Ordorica, Dalia; Gracia-Valenzuela, Martina H; Cabrera-Chávez, Francisco

2017-12-18

Sugar-free (SF), sugar-reduced (SR), or low-glycemic-index (low GI) cereal products could be helpful for the dietary treatment of disorders related to glucose homeostasis. However, access and economic aspects are barriers that could hamper their consumption. Thus, the availability and price of such cereal products were evaluated in Northwestern México. The products were categorized in 10 groups. The data were collected in five cities by store visitation (from November 2015 to April 2016). The availability in specialized stores and supermarkets was expressed as availability rates based on the total number of products. The price of the SF, SR, and low GI products were compared with their conventional counterparts. Availability rates were higher in supermarkets than in specialized stores by product numbers (14.29% versus 3.76%, respectively; p snacks, and tostadas/totopos) had higher prices than their conventional counterparts ( p < 0.05). In conclusion, in Northwestern Mexico, the availability of SF, SR, and low GI cereal-based foods is relatively low, and these foods are more expensive than their conventional counterparts.

EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN ROMANIA - A VAR APPROACH

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Iulian Popescu

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding how monetary policy decisions affect inflation and other economic variables is particularly important. In this paper we consider the implications of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime in Romania, based on an autoregressive vector method including recursive VAR and structural VAR (SVAR. Therefore, we focus on assessing the extent and persistence of monetary policy effects on gross domestic product (GDP, price level, extended monetary aggregate (M3 and exchange rate. The main results of VAR analysis reflect a negative response of consumer price index (CPI, GDP and M3 and positive nominal exchange rate behaviour to a monetary policy shock, and also a limited impact of a short-term interest rate shock in explaining the consumer prices, production and exchange rate fluctuations.

Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

2014-01-01

Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

1 CFR 11.7 - Federal Register Index.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 1 General Provisions 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Federal Register Index. 11.7 Section 11.7... REGISTER PUBLICATIONS SUBSCRIPTIONS § 11.7 Federal Register Index. The annual subscription price for the monthly Federal Register Index, purchased separately, in paper form, is $29. The price excludes postage...

The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

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Pramod Kumar NAIK

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

What could family income be if health insurance were more affordable?

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Richard A; Devoe, Jennifer E

2012-10-01

Adjusted for inflation, household income has been relatively flat since the mid-1990s, but the inflation rate of employer-sponsored health insurance has been greater than both household income growth and general inflation for 50 years. We estimated the effect on average family income if health insurance inflation matched the general inflation rate since 1996, and those savings were given to employees as income. We used data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the Milliman Medical Index, and other federal sources to model the relationship between private health insurance costs and household income over the last 15 years. If the cost of family health care costs had kept pace with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate since 1996, the average family income could have been $8,410 higher in 2010 ($68,805 versus $60,395), 13.9% more than actual earnings. If health care costs had not exceeded the CPI rate since 1996 and if all the excess costs were converted into employee wages, median family income could be substantially higher today.

Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on Nigeria stock exchange market. ... What are these environmental variables that affect the fluctuation of share prices in Nigeria? ... The results show inflation, money supply, total deficits index of industrial production, interest rate and GDP influence stock prices.

Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?

OpenAIRE

Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.

2014-01-01

This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989-?2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach of Chudik et al. (2013) as well as the standard panel ARDL method for estimation? to account for cross-state heterogeneity and dependence, dynamics and feedback effects. Our findings suggest that, on average, t...

Global economic activity and crude oil prices. A cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yanan; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

2010-01-01

This paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity. The Kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity. Based on a supply-demand framework and the cointegration theory, we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the Kilian economic index and a trade weighted US dollar index, and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the Kilian economic index through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run impacts. We also develop an empirically stable, data-coherent and single-equation error-correction model (ECM) which has sensible economic properties. Empirical results based on the ECM show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the Kilian economic index is a relatively drawn-out process. (author)

Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban; Soytas, Ugur; Gupta, Rangan

2015-01-01

This paper examines whether there is a volatility transmission between oil prices and financial stress by means of the volatility spillover test. We employ WTI crude oil prices and Cleveland financial stress index for the period 1991–2014 and divide the sample into pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis periods due to the downward trend in oil price in 2008. The volatility model estimations indicate that oil prices and financial stress index are dominated by long-run volatility. The volatility spillover causality test supports evidence on risk transfer from oil prices to financial stress before the crisis and from financial stress to oil prices after the crisis. The impulse response analysis shows that the volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis and is characterized by higher and long-lived effects during the crisis. Our results have implications for both policy makers and investors, and for future work. -- Highlights: •Volatility spillover between oil prices and financial stress index is examined. •Analysis is conducted for sub-periods: pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis •Oil prices spill on financial stress before the crisis, but spillover reversed after the crisis. •Volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis. •Implications for investors and policy makers are discussed

DOMESTIC AND FORIGN FACTORS FOR STOCK PRICES IN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahajeng Cahyaning Putri Cipto

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Indonesia has been developing various sectors of its economy, and so it needs a huge amount of capital. Therefore, it has been putting a lot of efforts to develop its capital market. This paper analyzes the impacts of domestic and foreign factors on Indonesia stock price. Some considered domestic factors are interest rates, production index, and foreign exchange rates. Various considered foreign factors are Singapore and US stock prices. The paper uses Vector Error Correction Mechanism model to analyze the data. The estimation results suggest that all variables significantly influence Indonesia stock price, with Singapore stock price as the dominant factors.Keywords: Stock price, interest rates, exchange rates, production indexJEL classification numbers: G12, G15

Study of the productivity evolution in the operation of CLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundberg, H.

2000-07-01

SKB shall every year, on behalf of the power companies, send SKI a cost calculation for spent fuel handling and dismantling of the Swedish nuclear power plants. SKI has tried to investigate the future impact which the growth of money in the Nuclear Waste Fund might give in relation to the change of consumer price index, CPI. The long term yield of the Fund has been related to the change of CPI, as the bigger part of the fund money has been invested in real interest rate bonds. The cost development has been studied by SKI with an index named 'KBS-3-index', which is a basket of weighted factor price indexes made out of the SKB programme. Since 1986 and up to 1998, the KBS-3-index has increased about 14% more than CPI. If this discrepancy should continue during the whole period when Fund money should be available, the Fund would be insufficient. But the difference between KBS-3-index and CPI might be eliminated due to a future productivity development. At the moment, SKI has no knowledge about future productivity development in the SKB programme. A closer analysis of the facilities operated by SKB is therefore important. Nearest to study is the productivity at the operation of CLAB, Central Interim Storage Facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel. The work in CLAB is receiving and storing of spent nuclear fuel and core components and reloading from normal to compact cassettes. The consumption of all production factors can be measured in money. Here the total production factors are defined as the sum of the annual operation costs and the sum of annuities for reinvestments during the year. The development for total productivity is slightly increasing. Normal for a new business is that the productivity rises sharply in the beginning. Here the productivity is slightly decreasing in the beginning, and then rising, sinking and at last a sharp rising. Project compact storing was finished in 1992, and relocation to compact cassettes started in 1993. This is said to be the reason for

Study of the productivity evolution in the operation of CLAB[CLAB=Central Storage Facility for Spent Fuel]; Undersoekning av produktivitetsutveckling vid driften av CLAB

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lundberg, H. [AaF-Energikonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2000-07-01

SKB shall every year, on behalf of the power companies, send SKI a cost calculation for spent fuel handling and dismantling of the Swedish nuclear power plants. SKI has tried to investigate the future impact which the growth of money in the Nuclear Waste Fund might give in relation to the change of consumer price index, CPI. The long term yield of the Fund has been related to the change of CPI, as the bigger part of the fund money has been invested in real interest rate bonds. The cost development has been studied by SKI with an index named 'KBS-3-index', which is a basket of weighted factor price indexes made out of the SKB programme. Since 1986 and up to 1998, the KBS-3-index has increased about 14% more than CPI. If this discrepancy should continue during the whole period when Fund money should be available, the Fund would be insufficient. But the difference between KBS-3-index and CPI might be eliminated due to a future productivity development. At the moment, SKI has no knowledge about future productivity development in the SKB programme. A closer analysis of the facilities operated by SKB is therefore important. Nearest to study is the productivity at the operation of CLAB, Central Interim Storage Facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel. The work in CLAB is receiving and storing of spent nuclear fuel and core components and reloading from normal to compact cassettes. The consumption of all production factors can be measured in money. Here the total production factors are defined as the sum of the annual operation costs and the sum of annuities for reinvestments during the year. The development for total productivity is slightly increasing. Normal for a new business is that the productivity rises sharply in the beginning. Here the productivity is slightly decreasing in the beginning, and then rising, sinking and at last a sharp rising. Project compact storing was finished in 1992, and relocation to compact cassettes started in 1993. This is said to be the

SELECTING THE WAY OF MEASURING THE PRICE EVOLUTION USING THE METHOD OF INDICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihai GHEORGHE

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The price indices have a long history and a large variety of uses, from the adjustment of the wages, pensions and payments included in a long-term contract, the deflation of aggregates in National Accounts, to the elaboration of economic policies.Having identified the purpose of the index, we`ll have to choose the target index and the calculation formula, this operation being carried out based on the observed prices and on the quantity and quality weights.In the statistical practice, the price index is often calculated by aggregating the elementary indices using the weighted arithmetic mean, using annual weights from a period that is previous to the reference period.In this situation, the question about the possible impact of the weights update (by prices on the interpretation of price indices becomes legitimate, also the question about the influence of using this approach on measuring the price change. We can get a possible answer to this question using the Lowe and Young indices introduced by the Consumer Price Index international manual.

Solutions for wood-based bio-energy price discovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teraes, Timo [FOEX Indexes Ltd., Helsinki (Finland)], e-mail: timo@foex.fi

2012-11-01

Energy prices are highly volatile. This volatility can have serious ill-effects on the profitability of companies engaged in the energy business. There are, however, a number of price risk management tools which can be used to reduce the problems caused by price volatility. International trade of wood pellets and wood chips is rapidly growing. A good price transparency helps in developing the trade further. In order to meet the renewable energy targets within the EU, further growth of volumes is needed, at least within Europe and from overseas supply sources to the European markets. Reliable price indices are a central element in price risk management and in general price discovery. Exchanges have provided, in the past, the most widely known price discovery systems. Since 1990's, an increasing number of price risk management tools has been based on cash settlement concept. Cash settlement requires high quality benchmark price indices. These have been developed by the exchanges themselves, by trade press and by independent price benchmark provider companies. The best known of these benchmarks in forest industry and now also in wood-based bioenergy products are the PIX indices, provided by FOEX Indexes Ltd. This presentation discusses the key requirements for a good price index and the different ways of using the indices. Price relationships between wood chip prices and pellet prices are also discussed as will be the outlook for the future volume growth and trade flows in woodchips and pellets mainly from the European perspective.

The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,

Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report

OpenAIRE

Kota Watanabe; Tsutomu Watanabe

2014-01-01

We construct a Törnqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scanner data spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the CPI inflation rate, although the difference between the two varies over time. Second, the difference between the two measures is greatest from 1992 to 1994, when, following the burst of bubble economy in 1991, the POS inflation rate drops rapidly and turns negati...

Price and Availability of Sugar-Free, Sugar-Reduced and Low Glycemic Index Cereal Products in Northwestern México

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesús G. Arámburo-Gálvez

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Sugar-free (SF, sugar-reduced (SR, or low-glycemic-index (low GI cereal products could be helpful for the dietary treatment of disorders related to glucose homeostasis. However, access and economic aspects are barriers that could hamper their consumption. Thus, the availability and price of such cereal products were evaluated in Northwestern México. The products were categorized in 10 groups. The data were collected in five cities by store visitation (from November 2015 to April 2016. The availability in specialized stores and supermarkets was expressed as availability rates based on the total number of products. The price of the SF, SR, and low GI products were compared with their conventional counterparts. Availability rates were higher in supermarkets than in specialized stores by product numbers (14.29% versus 3.76%, respectively; p < 0.001 and by product categories (53.57% versus 26.92%, respectively; p < 0.001. Five categories of products labeled as SF, SR, and low GI (oats, cookies and crackers, flours, snacks, and tostadas/totopos had higher prices than their conventional counterparts (p < 0.05. In conclusion, in Northwestern Mexico, the availability of SF, SR, and low GI cereal-based foods is relatively low, and these foods are more expensive than their conventional counterparts.

THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

The effect of the implementation of low price medicine policy on medicine price in China: A retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Xiaodong; Yang, Mingchun; Man, Chunxia; Tian, Ye; Shi, Luwen

2018-04-30

In an effort to relieve the pressure of drug shortages, the Chinese government implemented Low-price Medicines (LPM) policy to raise the price cap in July 2014. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the implementation of this policy on drug price in China. Price data of 491 LPM, including 218 low-price chemical medicines (LPCM) and 273 low-price traditional Chinese medicines (LPTCM), were collected from 699 hospitals. We used interrupted time series design to identify the variation of monthly Laspeyres Indexes (LI) and Paasche Indexes (PI) for LPM, LPCM, and LPTCM. The result demonstrated that although LPM expenditures increased, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures fell from 3.6% to 3.2%. After the implementation of LPM policy, there was a significant increasing trend in LPM-PI, LPCM-PI, and LPTCM-PI. The trend in LPM-LI and LPCM-LI was found from descending to rising. However, for LPTCM, the trend in the LI remained to decrease after the policy implementation. Despite the LPM policy had an increasing impact on the LPM drug price, the proportion of LPM expenditures accounting for all medicine expenditures did not increase. More efforts are needed in the future to promote the rational drug use in China. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Distribution-class Locational Marginal Price (DLMP) Index for Enhanced Distribution Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Akinbode, Oluwaseyi Wemimo

The smart grid initiative is the impetus behind changes that are expected to culminate into an enhanced distribution system with the communication and control infrastructure to support advanced distribution system applications and resources such as distributed generation, energy storage systems, and price responsive loads. This research proposes a distribution-class analog of the transmission LMP (DLMP) as an enabler of the advanced applications of the enhanced distribution system. The DLMP is envisioned as a control signal that can incentivize distribution system resources to behave optimally in a manner that benefits economic efficiency and system reliability and that can optimally couple the transmission and the distribution systems. The DLMP is calculated from a two-stage optimization problem; a transmission system OPF and a distribution system OPF. An iterative framework that ensures accurate representation of the distribution system's price sensitive resources for the transmission system problem and vice versa is developed and its convergence problem is discussed. As part of the DLMP calculation framework, a DCOPF formulation that endogenously captures the effect of real power losses is discussed. The formulation uses piecewise linear functions to approximate losses. This thesis explores, with theoretical proofs, the breakdown of the loss approximation technique when non-positive DLMPs/LMPs occur and discusses a mixed integer linear programming formulation that corrects the breakdown. The DLMP is numerically illustrated in traditional and enhanced distribution systems and its superiority to contemporary pricing mechanisms is demonstrated using price responsive loads. Results show that the impact of the inaccuracy of contemporary pricing schemes becomes significant as flexible resources increase. At high elasticity, aggregate load consumption deviated from the optimal consumption by up to about 45 percent when using a flat or time-of-use rate. Individual load

Alberta producers' gas export prices slip

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandrasekharaiah, M.N.; Dubben, G.; Kolster, B.H.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that Alberta gas producers have approved a new contract with California buyers that includes slightly lower wellhead prices and more flexible pricing terms. The 1 year agreement, will apply a flexible price formula to gas sales. A basic volume of 212 MMcfd will receive $1.52 (U.S.)/Mcf. A and S also will buy 200 MMcfd at prices paid for other Alberta gas in the California market. It will have the right to buy added volumes at prices indexed to gas sold into California from the U.S. Southwest. Ballots cast by producers were to be verified by regulatory agencies in Alberta and British Columbia. The more flexible price terms in the new contract are seen as a positive development for negotiations in a dispute over long term contracts

Stock price analysis of sustainable foreign investment companies in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Fachrudin, Khaira Amalia

2018-03-01

The stock price is determined by demand and supply in the stock market. Stock price reacts to information. Sustainable investment is an investment that considers environmental sustainability and human rights. This study aims to predict the probability of above average stock price by including the sustainability index as one of its variables. The population is all foreign investment companies in Indonesia. The target population is companies that distribute dividends – also as a sample. The analysis tool is a logistic regression. At 5% alpha, it was found that sustainability index did not have the probability to increase stock price average. The significant effects are free cash flow and cost of debt. However, sustainability index can increase the Negelkarke R square. The implication is that the awareness of sustainability is still necesary to be improved because from the research result it can be seen that investors only consider the risk and return.

Pricing Natural Gas. The Outlook for the European Market (Summary)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Long-term gas supply contracts contain price formulae, in which the gas price is usually linked to the price of another commodity, or to the spot price of gas in a particular market. In continental Europe the gas price in international long-term supply contracts is predominantly linked to oil products. At the same time, spot markets for gas in which gas prices are determined by supply and demand are developing in various EU markets. This paper addresses the question of to what extent the traditional form of oil-based price indexation is sustainable and/or will be sustained by the market players. It discusses the considerations the market players may have in favour of one or the other form of indexation, the external forces that may influence the choice of indexation in the short and longer terms and the consequences of change. It argues that pricing systems are a fundamental part of a market organisation, and that a shift to different pricing structures only happens if and when the main actors are convinced that they understand and accept the consequences of such change. It concludes that there is no strong evidence that the current hybrid situation, in which both forms of gas pricing co-exist, cannot continue. There are also no overriding reasons to intervene in the market practices of price formation. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages under different market conditions, and to some extent complement each other in the current markets. Different types of risk and the appreciation thereof by the trading parties will determine particular choices of pricing rules and contracting conditions. More importantly, in today's market, in which new supplies are slow to come forward, the choice should be left to the market parties, particularly as sellers and buyers do not seem to be in strong disagreement

Essays on Derivatives Pricing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

. With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price

OpenAIRE

Barbu, Teodora Cristina; Vuța, Mariana; Strachinaru, Adina Ionela; Cioaca, Sorin Iulian

2017-01-01

The article highlights the correlation between the evolution of the housing price, as measured by House Price Index, the flow of immigrants and other macroeconomic variables for a sample of 21 representative countries for the period 2007-2014. The proposed model explains and highlights the existence of a positive link between the House Price Index evolution and the flow of immigrants, market capitalization share to Gross Domestic Product and the growth rate of the economy. The novelty of this...

Pricing hazardous substance emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staring, Knut; Vennemo, Haakon

1997-12-31

This report discusses pricing of emissions to air of several harmful substances. It combines ranking indices for environmentally harmful substances with economic valuation data to yield price estimates. The ranking methods are discussed and a relative index established. Given the relative ranking of the substances, they all become valued by assigning a value to one of them, the `anchor` substance, for which lead is selected. Valuations are provided for 19 hazardous substances that are often subject to environmental regulations. They include dioxins, TBT, etc. The study concludes with a discussion of other categories of substances as well as uncertainties and possible refinements. When the valuations are related to CO, NOx, SOx and PM 10, the index system undervalues these pollutants as compared to other studies. The scope is limited to the outdoor environment and does not include global warming and eutrophication. The indices are based on toxicity and so do not apply to CO{sub 2} or other substances that are biologically harmless. The index values are not necessarily valid for all countries and should be considered as preliminary. 18 refs., 6 tabs.

Pricing hazardous substance emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staring, Knut; Vennemo, Haakon

1998-12-31

This report discusses pricing of emissions to air of several harmful substances. It combines ranking indices for environmentally harmful substances with economic valuation data to yield price estimates. The ranking methods are discussed and a relative index established. Given the relative ranking of the substances, they all become valued by assigning a value to one of them, the `anchor` substance, for which lead is selected. Valuations are provided for 19 hazardous substances that are often subject to environmental regulations. They include dioxins, TBT, etc. The study concludes with a discussion of other categories of substances as well as uncertainties and possible refinements. When the valuations are related to CO, NOx, SOx and PM 10, the index system undervalues these pollutants as compared to other studies. The scope is limited to the outdoor environment and does not include global warming and eutrophication. The indices are based on toxicity and so do not apply to CO{sub 2} or other substances that are biologically harmless. The index values are not necessarily valid for all countries and should be considered as preliminary. 18 refs., 6 tabs.

The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

2008-01-01

Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

A study of the improvement of the district heat price cap system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, S.J. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

This study proposes revision of the price cap mechanism applied to the district heating company, which was introduced in 1999. The revision aims at the provision of the incentives to lower the production cost to the heat producers and preventing the monopoly price from being charged to the consumer. It is proposed to extend the application period of the price cap to 3 or 5 years. 3 year application period is recommended because of lack of the experiences of the price cap mechanism and information of its performance in the public utility industries in Korea. The calculation of the price cap is better to be set based upon the minimum of the full cost of heat production in the last year of the previous application periods or the prices actually charged to the consumer during the previous application period. As the opportunity cost of the equity capital, the interest rate of the 5 year government bond or the actual interest cost of the debt financed capital is recommended to increase the share of the equity capital and to reflect the investment risk of the district heating industry. Production efficiency index applicable to the district heating company is estimated with 3 different methods. Among three different results, 3% is the first choice from a conservative perspective. It is also recommended to adjust production efficiency index as the data are accumulated and to be implemented with a profit sharing mechanism between the consumer and the monopoly supplier. In application of the price index, producer price index is applicable if the price cap is calculated from the full production cost. consumer price index is applicable if the price cap is set from the previous year's actual district heat prices (tariffs). Transfer of the ownership either by transferring stocks or by asset selling could affect the price cap determined by the full cost of the district heat production. In order to keep the consumer's welfare from being decreased, it is necessary to set

Inflation, Index-Linked Bonds, and Asset Allocation

OpenAIRE

Zvi Bodie

1988-01-01

The recent introduction of CPI-linked bonds by several financial institutions is a milestone in the history of the U.S. financial system. It has potentially far-reaching effects on individual and institutional asset allocation decisions because these securities represent the only true long-run hedge against inflation risk. CPI-linked bonds make possible the creation of additional financial innovations that would use them as the asset base. One such innovation that seems likely is inflation-pr...

Temporal evaluation of the Conservation Priority Index for medicinal plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André dos Santos Souza

Full Text Available ABSTRACT We investigated, through a temporal comparison, the extraction of non-timber forest resources by quantitatively analyzing the Conservation Priority Index (CPI. The study focused on the Fulni-ô Indigenous Territory, in the municipality of Águas Belas, PE (Northeast Brazil, which is characterized by caatinga vegetation (seasonal dry forest. Information on the availability of the exploited resources and the reported use of the species were obtained from vegetation sampling and semi-structured interviews, respectively. Our results demonstrated a reduction in species richness overtime, which may be due to continued resource extraction in the area, and that some species with low densities were even more affected. The species reported as being at high risk in the current study apparently did not differ from their status in the previous study, which supports the idea that these species are most evident in this situation more for their high potential of use than for their high densities. When we associate these events together with the disappearance of some rare species, we can conclude that the CPI was not efficient in predicting changes, and that the combination of variables used with the biological variables of the species needs to be adjusted.

Cost Indexing and Unit Price Adjustments for Construction Materials

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-30

This project was focused on the assimilation of information regarding unit price adjustment clauses, or PACs, : that are offered for construction materials at the state Departments of Transportation (DOTs). It is intended to : provide the South Carol...

Forecasting Analysis of Shanghai Stock Index Based on ARIMA Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Chenggang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Prediction and analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index is conducive for investors to investing in the stock market, and providing investors with reference. This paper selects Shanghai Composite Index monthly closing price from Jan, 2005 to Oct, 2016 to construct ARIMA model. This paper carries on the forecast of the last three monthly closing price of Shanghai Stock Index that have occurred, and compared it with the actual value, which tests the accuracy and feasibility of the model in the short term Shanghai Stock Index forecast. At last, this paper uses the ARIMA model to forecast the Shanghai Composite Index closing price of the last two months in 2016.

Follow-up for the years 2000-2002 of productivity studies for the operation of CLAB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundberg, Haakan

2003-04-01

SKB hands every year over, on behalf of the power companies, to SKI a cost calculation for spent fuel handling and dismantling of the Swedish nuclear power plants. SKI has tried to investigate the future impact which the growth of money in the Nuclear Waste Fund might give in relation to the change of consumer price index, CPI. The long term yield of the Fund has been related to the change of CPI, as the bigger part of the fund money has been invested in real interest rate bonds, issued by the Swedish state. The cost development has been studied with an index named 'KBS-3-index', which is a basket of weighted factor price indexes based on the SKB programme. Since 1986 and up to 2002, the KBS-3-index has increased about 102%, but CPI only about 70%. If this discrepancy should continue during the whole period when Fund money should be available, the Fund would be insufficient. But the difference between KBS-3-index and CPI might be eliminated due to a future productivity development. At the moment, SKI has no knowledge about future productivity development in the SKB programme. A closer analysis of the productivity and efficiency development in the facilities operated by SKB is therefore applicable. Nearest to study is the productivity at the operation of CLAB, Central Interim Storage Facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel. The work in CLAB is receiving and storing of spent nuclear fuel and core components. The consumption of all production factors can be measured in economical means. Here the total production factors are defined as the sum of the annual operation costs and the sum of annuities for reinvestments during the year. The development of total productivity is increasing slightly, but decreasing in the end. Normal for a new business is that the productivity is rising sharply in the beginning. Here the productivity is slightly decreasing in the beginning, and then rising, decreasing, rising and finally decreasing. The project 'compact storing' was finished in 1992

Follow-up for the years 2000-2002 of productivity studies for the operation of CLAB; Uppfoeljning foer aaren 2000-2002 av undersoekning av produktivitetsutvecklingen vid driften av CLAB

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lundberg, Haakan [AaF-Energi and Miljoe AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-04-01

SKB hands every year over, on behalf of the power companies, to SKI a cost calculation for spent fuel handling and dismantling of the Swedish nuclear power plants. SKI has tried to investigate the future impact which the growth of money in the Nuclear Waste Fund might give in relation to the change of consumer price index, CPI. The long term yield of the Fund has been related to the change of CPI, as the bigger part of the fund money has been invested in real interest rate bonds, issued by the Swedish state. The cost development has been studied with an index named 'KBS-3-index', which is a basket of weighted factor price indexes based on the SKB programme. Since 1986 and up to 2002, the KBS-3-index has increased about 102%, but CPI only about 70%. If this discrepancy should continue during the whole period when Fund money should be available, the Fund would be insufficient. But the difference between KBS-3-index and CPI might be eliminated due to a future productivity development. At the moment, SKI has no knowledge about future productivity development in the SKB programme. A closer analysis of the productivity and efficiency development in the facilities operated by SKB is therefore applicable. Nearest to study is the productivity at the operation of CLAB, Central Interim Storage Facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel. The work in CLAB is receiving and storing of spent nuclear fuel and core components. The consumption of all production factors can be measured in economical means. Here the total production factors are defined as the sum of the annual operation costs and the sum of annuities for reinvestments during the year. The development of total productivity is increasing slightly, but decreasing in the end. Normal for a new business is that the productivity is rising sharply in the beginning. Here the productivity is slightly decreasing in the beginning, and then rising, decreasing, rising and finally decreasing. The project 'compact storing

Risk Measure and Early-Warning System of China's Stock Market Based on Price-Earnings Ratio and Price-to-Book Ratio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongda Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the actual situation of China's stock market, this paper proposes a method for measuring the stock market's risk and early-warning methods which are based on price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio. The study found that the method of VaR can capture the bigger daily drops in a period, and if the drop is at the periodical top of the index, the probability of a sharp index decline will be very high. It also confirmed that the method is feasible and practical for people to use. In the long run, this method really can send early-warning signals of sharp decline; the warning levels increase as the index rises. The study also found that index will not fall after every warning but will continue going forward because of inertia, particularly during a big trend.

Prices regulation in price-cap: the lessons of the british gas industry; Reglementations tarifaires en price-cap: les lecons de l'industrie gaziere anglaise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David, L.

2003-07-01

This article examines the problem of the price-cap regulation applied to the british gas transport. The RPI-X cap is a particular form of the price cap. This cap seems to be more remunerative for the regulatory firm than a cap calculated on the Laspeyres index because it authorizes a greater freedom of prices choice, to the prejudice of the consumers. Facing these perverse effects, Cowan proposed in 1997 a new system, not more satisfying. Another equation is analyzed in this article, proposed by Ofgem. Meanwhile this system presents no improvement of the consumers surplus facing the RPI-X cap. (A.L.B.)

A comparison of generic drug prices in seven European countries: a methodological analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G

2017-03-31

Policymakers and researchers frequently compare the prices of medicines between countries. Such comparisons often serve as barometers of how pricing and reimbursement policies are performing. The aim of this study was to examine methodological challenges to comparing generic drug prices. We calculated all commonly used price indices based on 2013 IMS Health data on sales of 3156 generic drugs in seven European countries. There were large differences in generic drug prices between countries. However, the results varied depending on the choice of index, base country, unit of volume, method of currency conversion, and therapeutic category. The results also differed depending on whether one looked at the prices charged by manufacturers or those charged by pharmacists. Price indices are a useful statistical approach for comparing drug prices across countries, but researchers and policymakers should interpret price indices with caution given their limitations. Price-index results are highly sensitive to the choice of method and sample. More research is needed to determine the drivers of price differences between countries. The data suggest that some governments should aim to reduce distribution costs for generic drugs.

Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorn, Jochen

This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

Construct Validity of Three Self-Report Measures of Creativity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleenor, John W.; Taylor, Sylvester

1994-01-01

Relations were examined among the CPI Creativity Scale (CPI-CT), the MBTI Creativity Index (MBTI-CI), and the Kirton Adaption-Innovation Inventory (KAI; a style measure of behavioral preference) for samples of 431 to 12,115 managers. KAI scores were related to CPI-CT and MBTI-CI creativity levels. (SLD)

An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ona Duarte Venslauskas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory.  We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI.  We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships.  The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices.  In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks.

A Price Earnings Index for the Danish Stock Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Risager, Ole

2004-01-01

Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the period...

Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars

2015-01-01

We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...

The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmet Ozcan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

ECONOMETRIC’S MODEL: THE DEPENDENCE OF PFTS INDEX FROM ECONOMICS RANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Cherkashyna

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Dynamics of stock index is an indicator of market efficiency. We use the strong form of market efficiency, where prices reflect all available information, – both public and private. National index PFTS and main world indexes such as Dow Jones industrial, Standard & Poor’s 500, Nasdaq composite, Japan’s Nikkei index, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index are very volatility. Last week all of the major U.S. stock indexes were in the red. Data dependence index PFTS from many exogenous and internal factors is analyzed in the article. The main exogenous factors are Dow Jones industrial, Nasdaq composite, growth rate of world GDP, price of gold, price of oil. The main internal factors are the exchange rate, the international investment position of Ukraine, the external debt of Ukraine. Index PFTS is malleable from the international investment position, the exchange rate and the price of gold. It is very difficult to forecast the dynamic of stock index. There is an approximation error. It is 6,82%. It is less than 10% and it is allowable. The econometric model makes it possible to predict the dynamics of the PFTS on the next years. But we must have in mind asymmetry of information and moral hazard.

Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaopeng Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Coal plays an important role in China’s energy structure and its price has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal affected the profits of coal enterprises and the coal use of its downstream firms; the precision of coal price provides a reference for these enterprises making their management strategy. Based on the historical data of coal price and related factors such as port stocks, sales volume, futures prices, Producer Price Index (PPI, and crude oil price rate from November 2013 to June 2016, this study aims to forecast coal price using vector autoregression (VAR model and portray the dynamic correlations between coal price and variables by the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Comparing predicted and actual values, the root mean square error (RMSE was small which indicated good precision of this model. Thus this short period prediction can help these enterprises make the right business decisions.

Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

This paper considers derivatives with payoffs that depend on a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. A traffic light option pricing formula is derived under lognormality assumptions on the underlying processes. The traffic light option is aimed at the Danish life and pension sector to help...... the pricing of a hybrid derivative known as the EUR Sage Note. The approach can be used to price many existing structured products....

The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

2004-01-01

With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

The Realization Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy Objectives: 2001-2010

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Guogang

2013-01-01

This article explores the realization mechanism for the final and interim targets of China's monetary policy from 2001 to 2010.It finds that the three significant price surges in the ten years were not the results of loose monetary policy While maintaining rapid economic growth,China avoided the inflation linked with excess monetary supply.The introduction of total new lending in the interim targets also showed the maturing of China's monetary policy target system.To improve China's monetary operation,three measures need to te taken:firstly,basing stabilizing monetary policy on the trend of the non-food price index within the CPI;secondly,readjusting the definition of money according the different characteristics of transaction money and reserve money;and thirdly,including yuan exchange rates into the intermediate objectives of monetary policy.

Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loutia, Amine; Mellios, Constantin; Andriosopoulos, Kostas

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the effect of OPEC production decisions (increase, cut, maintain) on both WTI and Brent crude oil prices between Q1 1991 and Q1 2015 by employing the event study methodology and by using two indices as benchmarks (BCI and S&P GSCI). We employ an EGARCH model to take into account the high volatility of oil prices and some stylized facts characterizing this volatility. We find that the impact of OPEC’s announcements on oil prices (i)evolves over time and among decisions, (ii) is more significant for production cut and maintain, (iii) is different for WTI and Brent prices, and (iv) is sensitive to the benchmark index. Moreover, OPEC’s decisions depend on the exploration and extraction cost of more expensive/unconventional oil resources. - Highlights: • The impact of OPEC's production decisions on both BRENT and WTI is examined. • We adopt the event study methodology. • An EGARCH model is used to capture some features characterizing oil prices volatility. • OPEC decisions effect changes over time and depends on production decisions and oil prices. • OPEC is less influential when prices are high and unconventional resources are viable.

The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

2014-01-01

textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

Pricing for finished products of the enterprise: accounting and analytical aspect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.L. Pravdyuk

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The pricing policy chosen by the enterprise in respect of goods and finished products of own production, has a decisive influence on the formation of financial results. In modern economic conditions we need to strengthen managerial decisions on the choice and carrying out price policy and a means of solving this problem is accounting. To determine the boundaries and competence of decision-making we analyzed the regulation of these terms and processes, as well as the dynamics of the stocks across sectors of the economy, the consumer price index, producer price index, the price index of realization of industrial products. Widely used data analytical reviews of the national Bank of Ukraine, enterprises' expectations regarding efficiency, the analysis of financial market indicators, etc. Established that the provision of information management pricing of goods shall conform to the requirements of the economy, by deepening complexity of accounting, to ensure the needs of consumers. According to the study substantiates the basics of accounting and analytical aspect of the pricing policy for finished products businesses. In the study of pricing policies in respect of goods in accounting and analytical aspect, we have established the following. The existing normative-legal acts and definitions of researchers on economic and accounting analysis of the concept give a sufficiently wide interpretation, which depends on the orientation and activity of the enterprise. Factors and points of influence on the efficiency of the pricing policy are: information support of process of pricing assessment of pricing factors, establish the objectives of price policy, assessment of customer demand, cost analysis, competition analysis, selecting a pricing method that measures the price adjustment, the evaluation price risk. The economic impact of the market environment is the most significant to the pricing policy of agricultural enterprises, which revealed the analysis

BUDGET NORMALIZATION AND PRICING FEATURES IN CONSTRUCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. I. Gadzhieva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available It is proved that the pricing of the construction is different from the pricing system in the industry and other branches of economy, because it has different methodological and organizational approaches. It has been determined that the cost of construction is set on the stage of its design, in the process of concluding investment contracts (construction contracts, as well as directly during construction, major repairs of objects of capital construction, reconstruction and the implementation of certain types of construction and installation works. It has been found that the pricing mechanism in construction is based on the detailed legal and reference documents regulating material consumption rates and prices, taking into account sectoral, territorial and seasonal features of building production. It has been found that under inflation conditions the price index calculation of construction products for investment purposes is of great importance. Mandatory approval of all stakeholders of the construction production method for determining the price of the construction site is proposed.

Market, trading and coal price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

2006-01-01

The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

Inflation and the price of oil in Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Globerman, S A [York Univ., Toronto; Bruce, H A

1976-09-01

A current policy concern in North America is how rapidly (if at all) domestic oil prices should be allowed to rise to world levels. An argument frequently used by those advocating control of domestic prices is that further increases in oil prices would impose undue burdens in the form of greater inflation and unemployment. While long-run costs associated with allocative inefficiencies are recognized, critics of policies calling for decontrolling domestic oil prices argue that the short-run costs associated with greater inflation and higher unemployment outweigh the long-run inefficiencies associated with price controls. Estimates of the impacts of increased oil costs are not easy. Three studies by Ontario on the consumer price index are described, and the authors conclude that the figures from these studies are too high. Some results of U.S. studies are cited. (MCW)

The world price of jump and volatility risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

2006-01-01

Jump and volatility risk are important for understanding equity returns, option pricing and asset allocation. This paper is the first to study international integration of markets for jump and volatility risk, using data on index options for each of the three main global markets: US S&P 500 index

48 CFR 552.216-71 - Economic Price Adjustment-Special Order Program Contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... updated index, the Contractor shall have waived its right to an upward price adjustment for the balance of... Contractors shall have waived its right to an upward price adjustment for that option period. Alternatively... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Economic Price Adjustment...

A cointegration analysis of wine stock indexes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabina Introvigne

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes price patterns and long-run relationships for both fine wine and non-fine wine, with the aim to highlight price dynamics and co-movements between series, and to exploit potential diversification benefits. Data are from Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine for fine wine, the Mediobanca Global Wine Industry Share Price for normal wine, and the MSCI World Index as a proxy of the overall stock market. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were used to detect whether and to what extent the series co-move in the long run and which one of the variables contributes proactively to such an equilibrium by reacting to disequilibria from the long-run path. The estimates highlight that i the two wine indexes have a higher Sharpe ratio compared to the general stock market index, revealing wine stocks as a profitable investment per se, and ii the absence of cointegration among the three series and the existence of possible diversification benefits. In fact, in the long-run price do not move together and, therefore, investors may be better off by including wine stocks into investment portfolios and take advantage of diversification

Affordability of cataract surgery using the Big Mac prices

OpenAIRE

Van C. Lansingh; Marissa J. Carter; Kristen A. Eckert; Kevin L. Winthrop; João M. Furtado; Serge Resnikoff

2015-01-01

Purpose: One barrier to cataract surgery is its high price in some countries. This study aims to understand to what extent the price of cataract surgery is over- or undervalued and whether it varies in relation to GDP using The Economist newspaper Big Mac Index (BMcI) methodology, which measures the purchasing power parity between different currencies. Methods: Peer-reviewed articles containing information on cataract surgery prices were searched from 1993 to June 2012 in databases. Ophtha...

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

The Pricing of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nese, Gjermund

2004-11-01

The report focuses on the pricing of natural gas. The motivation has been the wish of the Norwegian authorities to increase the use of natural gas and that this should follow market conditions. The pricing of gas occurs at present in various ways in the different markets. The report identifies to main factors behind the pricing. 1) The type of market i.e. how far the liberalization of the gas markets has gone in the various countries. 2) The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies. The gas markets are undergoing as the energy markets in general, a liberalization process where the traditional monopoly based market structures are replaced by markets based on competition. There are great differences in the liberalization development of the various countries, which is reflected in the various pricing principles applied for the trade of gas in the countries. The analysis shows that the net-back-pricing is predominant in some countries i.e. that the price is in various ways indexed towards and follow the development of the price of alternative energy carriers so that the gas may be able to compete. The development towards trade places for gas where the pricing is based on offer and demand is already underway. As the liberalization of the European gas markets progresses it is expected that the gas price will be determined increasingly at spot markets instead of through bilateral agreements between monopolistic corporations. The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies and to what extent this may influence the gas prices in the future, are also studied. There seem to be effects that may pull in both directions but it is evident that these political variables will influence the gas pricing in the international market to a large extent and thereby also the future internal natural gas market

Coffee Index as Quick and Simple Indicator of Purchasing Power Parity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakub Fischer

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Purchasing Power Parity is the corner stone of all international comparisons. Various approaches to Purchasing Power Parity, such as the Big Mac Index, KFC Index, iPad Index, Tall Latte Index or Ikea Index were popularized to the broader audience besides the OECD Purchasing Power Parity indices. The aim of this paper is to develop a new ready-to-use quick and simple index based on the prices of Nespresso coffee’s capsules and show the main challenges of such indices as well as of the PPP concept. For the purpose of our research the data on the Nespresso capsules prices were collected. Taking into account also the popularity (demand side of the capsules types, the Espresso line was chosen as the basis for which all further calculations are made. The Nespresso Index provides us with clear evidence that the Law of One Price cannot work in recent world because of three key features. Firstly, differences in taxes make the perfect parity impossible. Secondly, the price discrimination prevents the rational subjects from arbitrage. Finally, the changes in the exchange rate make such indices highly volatile. Despite these weaknesses, the Nespresso Index could be used as the useful supplement of the OECD PPP as it is low cost, easy and fast to compute and digestible for the lay public.

Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Zhen-Hua; Zou, Le-Le; Wei, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

This paper examines carbon price volatility using data from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme from a nonlinear dynamics point of view. First, we use a random walk model, including serial correlation and variance ratio tests, to determine whether carbon price history information is fully reflected in current carbon price. The empirical research results show that carbon price is not a random walk: the price history information is not fully reflected in current carbon price. Second, use R/S, modified R/S and ARFIMA to analyse the memory of carbon price history. For the period April 2005-December 2008, the modified Hurst index of the carbon price is 0.4859 and the d value of ARFIMA is -0.1191, indicating short-term memory of the carbon price. Third, we use chaos theory to analyse the influence of the carbon market internal mechanism on carbon price, i.e., the market's positive and negative feedback mechanism and the heterogeneous environment. Chaos theory proves that the correlation dimension of carbon price increases. The maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive and large. There is no obvious complex endogenous phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics the carbon price fluctuation. The carbon market is mildly chaotic, showing both market and fractal market characteristics. Price fluctuation is not only influenced by the internal market mechanism, but is also impacted by the heterogeneous environment. Finally, we provide suggestions for regulation and development of carbon market.

South Africa and United States stock prices and the Rand/Dollar exchange rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Ocran

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to examine the dynamic causal relations between the two major financial assets, stock prices of the US and South Africa and the rand/US$ exchange rate. The study uses a mixed bag of time series approaches such as cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions.  The paper identifies a bi-directional causality from the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock price index to the rand/US$ exchange rate in the Granger sense. It was also found that the Standard & Poor’s stock price index accounts for a significant portion of the variations in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share index. Thus, while causality in the Granger sense could not be established for the relationship between the price indices of the two stock exchanges it can argued that there is some relationship between them. The results of the study have implications for both business and Government.

Commercial Property Index Construction Methodology: A Review on Literature and Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md Nasir Daud

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the literature on commercial property index construction methodology. Alongside this, index construction methodology employed by various organizations in producing existing commercial property indices is also discussed. The aim of the review is to identify the best possible methodology option to adopt in developing Kuala Lumpur Office Price Index (KL - OPI. Among the Asean countries, Singapore is the only country in this region that produces retail and office price index. In the case of Malaysia, this is the first study of this nature in the country, which outcome would be useful indicator for the industry. Having reviewed the existing methodologies of commercial property indices, it is best to model KL-OPI by adopting the hedonic price method

Stock price forecasting based on time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Wan Le

2018-05-01

Using the historical stock price data to set up a sequence model to explain the intrinsic relationship of data, the future stock price can forecasted. The used models are auto-regressive model, moving-average model and autoregressive-movingaverage model. The original data sequence of unit root test was used to judge whether the original data sequence was stationary. The non-stationary original sequence as a first order difference needed further processing. Then the stability of the sequence difference was re-inspected. If it is still non-stationary, the second order differential processing of the sequence is carried out. Autocorrelation diagram and partial correlation diagram were used to evaluate the parameters of the identified ARMA model, including coefficients of the model and model order. Finally, the model was used to forecast the fitting of the shanghai composite index daily closing price with precision. Results showed that the non-stationary original data series was stationary after the second order difference. The forecast value of shanghai composite index daily closing price was closer to actual value, indicating that the ARMA model in the paper was a certain accuracy.

PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

OpenAIRE

SUCIU Titus

2013-01-01

In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, Roy

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected form raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors

The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doroodian, K.; Boyd, R.

2003-01-01

This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected from raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors.(author)

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....

Natural gas pricing: concepts and international overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gorodicht, Daniel Monnerat [Gas Energy, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Veloso, Luciano de Gusmao; Fidelis, Marco Antonio Barbosa; Mathias, Melissa Cristina Pinto Pires [Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis (ANP), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2012-07-01

The core of this article is a critical analysis of different forms of pricing of natural gas existing in the world today. This paper is to describe the various scenarios of natural gas price formation models. Along the paper, the context is emphasized by considering their cases of applications and their results. Today, basically, there are three main groups of models for natural gas pricing: i) competition gas-on-gas, i.e., a liberalized natural gas market, II) gas indexed to oil prices or its products and III) bilateral monopolies and regulated prices. All the three groups of models have relevant application worldwide. Moreover, those are under dynamic influence of economic, technological and sociopolitical factors which bring complexity to the many existing scenarios. However, at first this paper builds a critical analysis of the international current situation of natural gas today and its economic relevance. (author)

The association between attempted suicide and stock price movements: Evidence from Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chung-Liang; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan

2017-08-01

This study is the first comprehensive analysis to investigate the potential association between stock market fluctuations and attempted suicide events as measured by self-inflicted injuries treated in hospitalization. Using nationwide, 15-year population-based data from 1998 through 2012, we observe that the occurrences for the hospitalizations of attempted suicides are apparently predicted by stock price movements. A low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock index, and consecutive daily falls in the stock index have been shown to be associated with increased risk of hospitalization in patients with attempted suicide. More specifically, stock price index is found to be significant impact on attempted suicide in the 45-54 age groups of both genders, whilst daily change is significant for both genders in the 25-34 and 55-64 age groups and accumulated change is only significant in female aged 25-44 and above 65. On the basis of the results, relevant organizations should consider the suicidal factors that relate prime-working-age and near-retirement-age people to better carry out specific suicide prevention measures, and, meanwhile, encourage those people to pay less attention towards daily stock price movements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proses Pengolahan dan Kualitas Air Minum di Kompleks Perumahan Karyawan PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia (PT. CPI) Duri-Riau Tahun 2014

OpenAIRE

Yulianty, Mia; naria, evi; dharma, surya

2014-01-01

Water is one of the important matter after the air, nobody can life without drinking until 4-5 days. Drinking water which is not qualified, can resulting disease or even death. Water treatment can prevents disease and resulting qualified drinking water. PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia (PT. CPI) is one of the companies which has a water treating plant to makes drinking water from raw water The purpose of this research is to know the process of water treatment, the quality of raw water after trea...

A new index for electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

2010-01-01

Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

An Assessment of the Immigration Impact on the International Housing Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodora Cristina Barbu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The article highlights the correlation between the evolution of the housing price, as measured by House Price Index, the flow of immigrants and other macroeconomic variables for a sample of 21 representative countries for the period 2007-2014. The proposed model explains and highlights the existence of a positive link between the House Price Index evolution and the flow of immigrants, market capitalization share to Gross Domestic Product and the growth rate of the economy. The novelty of this study is derived from the use of panel data models, the results indicating that for one percent increase in immigration (measured by the flow of immigrants, the housing price changes, in the same way, by 0.045%. It confirms the existence of a positive link, although not significant to the level of the housing price. The article is divided into four parts: the first part explains the choice of this topic; the second part presents an overview of the main ideas that are found in the literature; the third part presents the methodology and models applied to identify the immigration impact on the housing price and the fourth part contains conclusions, test limits and future research directions.

Not Fully Developed Turbulence in the Dow Jones Index

Science.gov (United States)

Trincado, Estrella; Vindel, Jose María

2013-08-01

The shape of the curves relating the scaling exponents of the structure functions to the order of these functions is shown to distinguish the Dow Jones index from other stock market indices. We conclude from the shape differences that the information-loss rate for the Dow Jones index is reduced at smaller time scales, while it grows for other indices. This anomaly is due to the construction of the index, in particular to its dependence on a single market parameter: price. Prices are subject to turbulence bursts, which act against full development of turbulence.

Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view......-averaged prices in the commodity index data that they use (price averaging induces spurious autocorrelation and predictability) and to features in their test procedures....

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

Occurrence and sources of aliphatic hydrocarbons in soils within the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The sources of the AHCs were determined using isoprenoid ratios, carbon preference index (CPI) and maximum carbon chain (Cmax). The isoprenoid ratios and CPI values of the samples closer ( 20 m from the HMA plants ...

Time series analysis of S&P 500 index: A horizontal visibility graph approach

Science.gov (United States)

Vamvakaris, Michail D.; Pantelous, Athanasios A.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

2018-05-01

The behavior of stock prices has been thoroughly studied throughout the last century, and contradictory results have been reported in the corresponding literature. In this paper, a network theoretical approach is provided to investigate how crises affected the behavior of US stock prices. We analyze high frequency data from S&P500 via the Horizontal Visibility Graph method, and find that all major crises that took place worldwide in the last twenty years, affected significantly the behavior of the price-index. Nevertheless, we observe that each of those crises impacted the index in a different way and magnitude. Interestingly, our results suggest that the predictability of the price-index series increases during the periods of crises.

Prices and Price Setting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.P. Faber (Riemer)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

Studies on classifying Indian coals. Part II. A new system for grading and pricing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tumuluri, S.G.; Shrikhande, S.K.; Rao, S.K.; Haque, R.

1985-07-01

The new system is self-complete through grading to pricing. It grades non-coking coal by moisture and ash contents. Coking coal is graded by GKLT coke type and ash content. Volatile matter content is used as a supporting indexer, where necessary. Through the grade data, a coal is evaluated into a single numeral which depicts the coaly matter content and its nature or effectiveness. This value, called effective coaly matter, is converted to a relative rupee value or price index/price. Pragmatics and versatility of the system are discussed.

International Energy Prices(Exchange Rate and PPP)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jo, Sung Han; Yoo, Dong Heon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2000-11-01

Energy is to be specially important to the Korean economy. In the past the major purpose of Korea's energy policies was to ensure that the energy was supplied at the low cost to encourage and sustain economic development and growth. Therefore, energy prices are distorted by government intervention. And this was the cause of inefficiency in usage of energy. In order to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of energy consumption, new energy pricing should be needed to the energy industry and the Korean economy. It is necessary to compare the domestic energy prices with other countries to improve the energy pricing system including tax, the relative structure of energy price, etc. In order to compare the domestic energy prices to those of other countries, the exchange rate, purchasing power parity and Big Mac index are used for calculation of common currency. We select 12 countries, which are Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Mexico and England. The oil products(gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and light fuel oil), natural gas and electricity are selected to compare the price. (author). 12 refs., 13 tabs.

Has it become increasingly expensive to follow a nutritious diet? Insights from a new price index for nutritious diets in Sweden 1980-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Håkansson, Andreas

2015-01-01

Health-related illnesses such as obesity and diabetes continue to increase, particularly in groups of low socioeconomic status. The increasing cost of nutritious food has been suggested as an explanation. To construct a price index describing the cost of a diet adhering to nutritional recommendations for a rational and knowledgeable consumer and, furthermore, to investigate which nutrients have become more expensive to obtain over time. Linear programming and goal programming were used to calculate two optimal and nutritious diets for each year in the interval under different assumptions. The first model describes the rational choice of a cost-minimizing consumer; the second, the choice of a consumer trying to deviate as little as possible from average consumption. Shadow price analysis was used to investigate how nutrients contribute to the diet cost. The cost of a diet adhering to nutritional recommendations has not increased more than general food prices in Sweden between 1980 and 2012. However, following nutrient recommendations increases the diet cost even for a rational consumer, particularly for vitamin D, iron, and selenium. The cost of adhering to the vitamin D recommendation has increased faster than the general food prices. Not adhering to recommendations (especially those for vitamin D) offers an opportunity for consumers to lower the diet cost. However, the cost of nutritious diets has not increased more than the cost of food in general between 1980 and 2012 in Sweden.

Food prices and poverty negatively affect micronutrient intakes in Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Iannotti, Lora L; Robles, Miguel; Pachón, Helena; Chiarella, Cristina

2012-08-01

Limited empirical evidence exists for how economic conditions affect micronutrient nutrition. We hypothesized that increasing poverty and rising food prices would reduce consumption of high-quality "luxury" foods, leading to an increased probability of inadequacy for several nutrients. The 2006 Guatemala National Living Conditions Survey was analyzed. First, energy and nutrient intakes and adequacy levels were calculated. Second, the income-nutrient relationships were investigated by assessing disparities in intakes, determining income-nutrient elasticities, and modeling nutrient intakes by reductions in income. Third, the food price-nutrient relationships were explored through determination of price-nutrient elasticities and modeling 2 price scenarios: an increase in food prices similar in magnitude to the food price crisis of 2007-2008 and a standardized 10% increase across all food groups. Disparities in nutrient intakes were greatest for vitamin B-12 (0.38 concentration index) and vitamin A (0.30 concentration index); these nutrients were highly and positively correlated with income (r = 0.22-0.54; P < 0.05). Although the baseline probability of inadequacy was highest for vitamin B-12 (83%), zinc showed the greatest increase in probability of inadequacy as income was reduced, followed by folate and vitamin A. With rising food prices, zinc intake was most acutely affected under both scenarios (P < 0.05) and folate intake in the poorest quintile (+7 percentage points) under the 10% scenario. Price-nutrient elasticities were highest for vitamin B-12 and the meat, poultry, and fish group (-0.503) and for folate and the legumes group (-0.343). The economic factors of food prices and income differentially influenced micronutrient intakes in Guatemala, notably zinc and folate intakes.

Essay on Option Pricing, Hedging and Calibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

da Silva Ribeiro, André Manuel

Quantitative finance is concerned about applying mathematics to financial markets.This thesis is a collection of essays that study different problems in this field: How efficient are option price approximations to calibrate a stochastic volatilitymodel? (Chapter 2) How different is the discretely...... of dynamics? (Chapter 5) How can we formulate a simple free-arbitrage model to price correlationswaps? (Chapter 6) A summary of the work presented in this thesis: Approximation Behooves Calibration In this paper we show that calibration based on an expansion approximation for option prices in the Heston...... stochastic volatility model gives stable, accurate, and fast results for S&P500-index option data over the period 2005 to 2009. Discretely Sampled Variance Options: A Stochastic Approximation Approach In this paper, we expand Drimus and Farkas (2012) framework to price variance options on discretely sampled...

Fruit and Vegetable Prices and Perceptions in Mercalaspalmas Wholesale Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santiago Rodríguez-Feijoó

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the behavior of fruit and vegetable prices in a wholesale market. Its aims are: a to examine price behavior and changes; and b to identify statistically significant factors in the perception of prices and to quantify the effect of these factors on the market price. For this purpose, daily data were obtained on modal prices at the Mercalaspalmas wholesale market from 2006 until mid-2010. The results obtained show there is a similar degree of flexibility in price increases and decreases, and show the product to be the determinant element in setting prices. There was found to be a strong degree of price permanence, in the sense that changes take place slowly and following a lag. The following significant factors were identified in the perception of prices: the length of time a price has remained unchanged in the market; the period during which a product has been absent from the market; the quantities traded at a given price; and the index of market prices. However, the quantitative effect of this body of factors on the perceived price is very limited.

Price-related sensitivities of greenhouse gas intensity targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muller, Benito; Muller-Furstenberger, Georg

2003-12-01

Greenhouse gas intensities are an appealing tool to foster abatement without imposing constraints on economic growth. This paper shows, however, that the computation of intensities is subject to some significant statistical and conceptual problems which relate to the inflation proofing of GDP growth. It is shown that the choice of price-index, the updating of quantity weights and the choice of base year prices can have a significant impact upon the commitment of intensity targets

Index Driven Price Pressure in Corporate Bonds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick-Nielsen, Jens

Inclusion and exclusion of bonds from major indices are information-free, monthly events. At these events, liquidity providers get a significant abnormal return by trading against index trackers. The return is highest for bonds that are excluded because of a recent downgrade with a one-day return...

STRUCTURAL BREAKS, COINTEGRATION, AND CAUSALITY BY VECM ANALYSIS OF CRUDE OIL AND FOOD PRICE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aynur Pala

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This papers investigated form of the linkage beetwen crude oil price index and food price index, using Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality by VECM. Empirical results for monthly data from 1990:01 to 2011:08 indicated that evidence for breaks after 2008:08 and 2008:11. We find a clear long-run relationship between these series for the full and sub sample. Cointegration regression coefficient is negative at the 1990:01-2008:08 time period, but adversely positive at the 2008:11-2011:08 time period. This results represent that relation between crude oil and food price chanced.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

Soft drink prices, sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Monsivais, Pablo; Suhrcke, Marc

2017-12-01

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999-2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks' sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity - but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m 2 (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m 2 . Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.

Il livello dei prezzi e la politica monetaria (The Price Level and Monetary Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles P. Kindleberger

2002-06-01

Full Text Available Most central banks are required or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is what index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

[Evolution of the relative prices of food groups between 1939 and 2010 in the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil].

Science.gov (United States)

Yuba, Tania Yuka; Sarti, Flavia Mori; Campino, Antonio Carlos Coelho; Carmo, Heron Carlos Esvael do

2013-06-01

To analyze the evolution of relative prices of food groups and its influence on public healthy eating policies. Data from the municipality of Sao Paulo between 1939 and 2010 were analyzed based on calculating index numbers. Data from the Economic Researches Foundation Institute price database and weight structures (1939 to 1988) and from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (1989 to 2010) were used to. The price database was organized, its consistency tested and prices were deflated using the consumer price index. Relative prices were calculated and associated to food categories and groups, according to the food pyramid guide adapted for the Brazilian population. The price indices for each group were calculated according to Laspeyres modified formula. The general food price index was compared with the indices for each food group and respective category: fresh food, processed food, beverages, meat, legumes, milk and eggs, cereals and root vegetables and eating out. Price indices for fat, oil, spices, sugars and sweets and processed food showed relative price reduction. Fresh food, such as fruit and vegetables, showed an increase in relative prices. Other food groups, such as cereals, flour and pasta, meat, milk and egg, showed a steadier long term trend in relative prices. The evolution of relative prices of food in the city of Sao Paulo demonstrates a negative trend towards healthy eating at household level in the long run.

The Chronicle Index of For-Profit Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Blumenstyk, Goldie

2007-01-01

This Index tracks the performance of eight publicly traded higher-education companies. The index was developed for The Chronicle by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business.

The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, P.

2000-01-01

This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

[Prudent use price controls in Chinese medicines market: based on statistical data analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Guang; Wang, Nuo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Qiu, Hong-Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping

2014-01-01

A dispute about the decreasing-price problem of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has recently arisen. This article analyzes the statistical data of 1995-2011 in China, the results showed that the main responsibility of expensive health care has no direct relationship with the drug price. The price index of TCM rose significantly slower than the medicine prices, the production margins of TCM affected by the material prices has been diminishing since 1995, continuous price reduction will further depress profits of the TCM industry. Considering the pros and cons of raw materials vary greatly in price, decreasing medicine price behavior will force enterprises to use inferior materials in order to maintain corporate profits. The results have the guiding meaning to medicine price management.

Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cunado, Juncal; Gracia, Fernando Perez de

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes the oil price-macro economy relationship by means of analyzing the impact of oil prices on inflation and industrial production indexes for many European countries using quarterly data for the period 1960-1999. First, we test for cointegration allowing for structural breaks among the variables. Second, and in order to account for the possible non-linear relationships, we use different transformation of oil price data. The main results suggest that oil prices have permanent effects on inflation and short run but asymmetric effects on production growth rates. Furthermore, significant differences are found among the responses of the countries to these shocks. (Author)

Has it become increasingly expensive to follow a nutritious diet? Insights from a new price index for nutritious diets in Sweden 1980–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Håkansson

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Health-related illnesses such as obesity and diabetes continue to increase, particularly in groups of low socioeconomic status. The increasing cost of nutritious food has been suggested as an explanation. Objective: To construct a price index describing the cost of a diet adhering to nutritional recommendations for a rational and knowledgeable consumer and, furthermore, to investigate which nutrients have become more expensive to obtain over time. Methods: Linear programming and goal programming were used to calculate two optimal and nutritious diets for each year in the interval under different assumptions. The first model describes the rational choice of a cost-minimizing consumer; the second, the choice of a consumer trying to deviate as little as possible from average consumption. Shadow price analysis was used to investigate how nutrients contribute to the diet cost. Results: The cost of a diet adhering to nutritional recommendations has not increased more than general food prices in Sweden between 1980 and 2012. However, following nutrient recommendations increases the diet cost even for a rational consumer, particularly for vitamin D, iron, and selenium. The cost of adhering to the vitamin D recommendation has increased faster than the general food prices. Conclusions: Not adhering to recommendations (especially those for vitamin D offers an opportunity for consumers to lower the diet cost. However, the cost of nutritious diets has not increased more than the cost of food in general between 1980 and 2012 in Sweden.

Simulating Stock Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion: Evidence from Australian Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishna Reddy

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This study uses the geometric Brownian motion (GBM method to simulate stock price paths, and tests whether the simulated stock prices align with actual stock returns. The sample for this study was based on the large listed Australian companies listed on the S&P/ASX 50 Index. Daily stock price data was obtained from the Thomson One database over the period 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014. The findings are slightly encouraging as results show that over all time horizons the chances of a stock price simulated using GBM moving in the same direction as real stock prices was a little greater than 50 percent. However, the results improved slightly when portfolios were formed.

A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorn, Jochen

We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

The Pricing of Traffic Light Options and other Correlation Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

This paper considers the valuation of European style derivatives with payoffs depending on both a stock index and underlying LIBOR rates. The model has the attractive feature that it is based on observable market quantities which makes it very easy to calibrate. A closed form solution is derived...... for the price of the correlation derivative known as the traffic light option under lognormality assumptions for the underlying processes. A pricing approach for more general payoffs is presented, and an illustration is performed with Monte Carlo simulation by the pricing of a specific hybrid derivative...

Equitable Prices of Single-Source Drugs in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Ngorsuraches, Surachat; Chaiyakan, Kanokkan

2015-08-01

In Thailand, total drug expenditure has grown rapidly. Recently, the Thai government has addressed the issue of drug pricing, but the prices of single-source drugs remain a major challenge. To examine equitable prices of single-source drugs in Thailand. A total of 98 single-source and high-expenditure drugs were examined. Unit prices from the Drug and Medical Supplies Information Center (DMSIC) and National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC) were used to represent drug prices at the provider level in Thailand and the U.S., respectively. Data for measuring drug affordability, e.g., dose and poverty line, were obtained from Micromedex online and the National Statistical Office (NSO). The U.S. drug prices were adjusted by the Human Development Index (HDI) to be equitable prices for Thailand. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) was used to convert US currency into Thai baht. All prices in this study were based on the year 2012. Catastrophic, Impoverishment, and WHO/Health Action International (HAI) approaches were used to determine Thai citizens' ability to afford the study drugs. Finally, uncertainty analyses were conducted. From all study drugs, 55 single-source drugs were priced higher than their equitable prices, ranging from 0.38 to 422.36% higher. Among these, 28 items were antineoplastic drugs. The prices of drugs outside the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), as well as the country's newer drugs, tended to be higher than their calculated equitable prices. The majority of drugs in Thailand priced higher than equitable prices were unaffordable for most Thai citizens. The uncertainty analyses revealed that almost all results were relatively robust. Most single-source drug prices in Thailand were higher than their equitable prices, and were likely to be unaffordable to Thai citizens.

EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Enrique Villalva A.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.

A cointegration analysis of wine stock indexes

OpenAIRE

Sabina Introvigne; Emanuele Bacchiocchi; Daniela Vandone

2017-01-01

This paper analyzes price patterns and long-run relationships for both fine wine and non-fine wine, with the aim to highlight price dynamics and co-movements between series, and to exploit potential diversification benefits. Data are from Liv-Ex 100 Fine Wine for fine wine, the Mediobanca Global Wine Industry Share Price for normal wine, and the MSCI World Index as a proxy of the overall stock market. Engle-Granger and Johansen tests were used to detect whether and to what extent the series c...

Groundwater Governance and the Growth of Center Pivot Irrigation in Cimarron County, OK and Union County, NM: Implications for Community Vulnerability to Drought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn Wenger

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Cimarron County, Oklahoma and Union County, New Mexico, neighboring counties in the Southern High Plains, are part of a vital agricultural region in the United States. This region experiences extended periods of cyclical drought threatening its ability to produce, creating an incentive for extensive center pivot irrigation (CPI. Center pivots draw from the rapidly depleting High Plains Aquifer System. As a result, the prospect of long-term sustainability for these agricultural communities is questionable. We use Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems to quantify growth in land irrigated by CPI between the 1950s and 2014, and key informant interviews to explore local perspectives on the causes and impact of such growth. In Cimarron County, OK, CPI increased by the mid-1980s, and has continually increased since. Results suggest adaptation to drought, a depleting aquifer, high corn prices, and less rigid groundwater regulations contribute to CPI growth. Conversely, CPI in Union County, NM, increased until 2010, and then declined. Results also suggest that drought-related agricultural changes and more aggressive well drilling regulations contribute to this decrease. Nevertheless, in both counties, there is a growing concern over the depleting aquifer, the long-term sustainability of CPI, and the region’s economic future.

Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie

2008-01-01

We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data

An application of robust ridge regression model in the presence of outliers to real data problem

Science.gov (United States)

Shariff, N. S. Md.; Ferdaos, N. A.

2017-09-01

Multicollinearity and outliers are often leads to inconsistent and unreliable parameter estimates in regression analysis. The well-known procedure that is robust to multicollinearity problem is the ridge regression method. This method however is believed are affected by the presence of outlier. The combination of GM-estimation and ridge parameter that is robust towards both problems is on interest in this study. As such, both techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between stock market price and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia due to curiosity of involving the multicollinearity and outlier problem in the data set. There are four macroeconomic factors selected for this study which are Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Money Supply (M1). The results demonstrate that the proposed procedure is able to produce reliable results towards the presence of multicollinearity and outliers in the real data.

Adsorption of Cr(III) on ozonised activated carbon. Importance of Cpi-cation interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera-Utrilla, J; Sánchez-Polo, M

2003-08-01

The adsorption of Cr(III) in aqueous solution was investigated on a series of ozonised activated carbons, analysing the effect of oxygenated surface groups on the adsorption process. A study was carried out to determine the adsorption isotherms and the influence of the pH on the adsorption of this metal. The adsorption capacity and affinity of the adsorbent for Cr(III) increased with the increase in oxygenated acid groups on the surface of the activated carbon. These findings imply that electrostatic-type interactions predominate in the adsorption process, although the adsorption of Cr(III) on the original (basic) carbon indicates that other forces also participate in the adsorption process. Thus, the ionic exchange of protons in the -Cpi-H3O(+) interaction for Cr(III) accounts for the adsorption of cationic species in basic carbons with positive charge density. Study of the influence of pH on the adsorption of Cr(III) showed that, in each system, the maximum adsorption occurred when the charge of the carbon surface was opposite that of the species of Cr(III) present at the pH of the experiment. These results confirmed that electrostatic interactions predominate in the adsorption process.

Using the Steel Vessel Material-Cost Index to Mitigate Shipbuilder Risk

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Keating, Edward G; Murphy, Robert; Schank, John F; Birkler, John

2008-01-01

This paper describes how the US Navy structures fixed-price and fixed-price, incentive-fee shipbuilding contracts and how labor- and material-cost indexes can mitigate shipbuilder risk in either type of contract...

Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Tao; Peng, Qinke; Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Jing

2016-02-01

There have been various achievements to understand and to analyze the financial market by complex network model. However, current studies analyze the financial network model but seldom present quantified indexes to indicate or forecast the price action of market. In this paper, the stock market is modeled as a dynamic network, in which the vertices refer to listed companies and edges refer to their rank-based correlation based on price series. Characteristics of the network are analyzed and then novel indexes are introduced into market analysis, which are calculated from maximum and fully-connected subnets. The indexes are compared with existing ones and the results confirm that our indexes perform better to indicate the daily trend of market composite index in advance. Via investment simulation, the performance of our indexes is analyzed in detail. The results indicate that the dynamic complex network model could not only serve as a structural description of the financial market, but also work to predict the market and guide investment by indexes.

Protein-energy malnutrition during early childhood and periodontal disease in the permanent dentition of Haitian adolescents aged 12-19 years: a retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Stefanie L; Psoter, Walter J; Jean-Charles, Germain; Prophte, Samuel; Gebrian, Bette

2010-05-01

The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to examine whether exposure to early childhood protein-energy malnutrition (ECPEM) is related to worsened periodontal status in the permanent dentition during adolescence. A trained clinician/researcher examined the periodontal status of 96 persons aged 12-19 living in rural Haiti using WHO diagnostic criteria (Community Periodontal Index, WHO 1997). Malnutrition data of the study participants had been collected during the years 1988-1993 by a nongovernmental organization. We compared those who had been malnourished in early childhood, based on z-scores for anthropomorphic data collected during the first 5 years of life, with those who had not been malnourished, regarding mean Community Periodontal Index (CPI) score, controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and smoking. Overall, 57.3% of the participants demonstrated a CPI score of 3 or greater in at least one sextant. ECPEM was independently and positively related to mean CPI score, when controlling for sex and smoking. More than half of these young Haitians demonstrated CPI scores of 3 or greater, and ECPEM was related to poorer periodontal status, as measured by CPI, in the permanent dentition.

Long range dependency and forecasting of housing price index and mortgage market rate: evidence of subprime crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadhem Selmi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we examine and forecast the House Price Index (HPI and mortgage market rate in terms of the description of the subprime crisis. We use a semi-parametric local polynomial Whittle estimator proposed by Shimotsu et al. (2005 [Shimotsu, K., & Phillips, P.C.B. (2005, Exact local Whittle estimation of fractional integration. The Annals of Statistics, 33(4, 1890-1933.] in a long memory parameter time series. Empirical investigation of HPI and mortgage market rate shows that these variables are more persistent when the d estimates are found on the Shimotsu method than on the one of Künsch (1987 [Künsch, H.R. (1987. Statistical aspects of self-similar processes. In Y. Prokhorov and V.V. Sazanov (eds., Proceedings of the First World Congress of the Bernoulli Society, VNU Science Press, Utrecht, 67-74.]. The estimating forecast values are more realistic and they strongly reflect the present US economy actuality in the two series as indicated by the forecast evaluation topics.

Pricing of Surgeries for Colon Cancer: Patient Severity and Market Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

2012-01-01

Study Objective Examine effects of HMO penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. Methods We used 2002-2007 the MarketScan Database to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n=1,035 and n=6,389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Results Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.3% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.109, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.062, 1.158), and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (AOR: 0.936 (0.880, 0.996)). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than for open surgery (transformed coefficient (Coeff): 0.927 (0.895, 0.960)). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (Coeff: 0.985 (0.977, 0.992)), while a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (Coeff: 1.016 (1.006, 1.027), p Impact Laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. PMID:22569703

Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Ting, Chee-Ming [Center for Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)

2015-02-03

In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kho Chia; Bahar, Arifah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Ting, Chee-Ming; Rahman, Haliza Abd

2015-02-01

In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd; Bahar, Arifah; Ting, Chee-Ming

2015-01-01

In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well

Peak load demand forecasting using two-level discrete wavelet decomposition and neural network algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Bunnoon, Pituk; Chalermyanont, Kusumal; Limsakul, Chusak

2010-02-01

This paper proposed the discrete transform and neural network algorithms to obtain the monthly peak load demand in mid term load forecasting. The mother wavelet daubechies2 (db2) is employed to decomposed, high pass filter and low pass filter signals from the original signal before using feed forward back propagation neural network to determine the forecasting results. The historical data records in 1997-2007 of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used as reference. In this study, historical information of peak load demand(MW), mean temperature(Tmean), consumer price index (CPI), and industrial index (economic:IDI) are used as feature inputs of the network. The experimental results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is approximately 4.32%. This forecasting results can be used for fuel planning and unit commitment of the power system in the future.

Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...

Analysts : no need to panic over prices / Steven Paulikas

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

Paulikas, Steven

2004-01-01

Pärast EL-iga liitumist on Balti riikides hinnad tõusnud keskmiselt 5,7%, pankade hinnangul on oodata ka inflatsiooni kiirenemist. Lisa: Thank you, accession: Consumer Price Index, percent increase, year-on-year

On the Economic Consequences of Index-Linked Investing

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey Wurgler

2010-01-01

Trillions of dollars are invested through index funds, exchange-traded funds, and other index derivatives. The benefits of index-linked investing are well-known, but the possible broader economic consequences are unstudied. I review research which suggests that index-linked investing is distorting stock prices and risk-return tradeoffs, which in turn may be distorting corporate investment and financing decisions, investor portfolio allocation decisions, fund manager skill assessments, and oth...

The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.

2017-01-01

We employ a class of time-varying Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models on new standard dataset of China's GDP constructed by to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. The results are generally robust to three commonly employed indicators of global economic activity: Kilian's global real economic activity index, the metal price index and the global industrial production index, and two alternative oil price metrics: the US refiners' acquisition cost for imported crude oil and the West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil. - Highlights: • A class of time-varying BVARs is used to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations. • The impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature. • Oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth while oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects. • Domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market.

The Calculation of Weighted Price Elasticity of Tax: Turkey (1998-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Engin YILMAZ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries” suggested in the first studies which examine the impacts of the inflation on tax revenues, will be reevaluated for Turkey in the period of 1998-2013. We use Turkish tax and price index data for calculating the weighted price elasticity of tax. Via the method of dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS, the long run weighted price elasticity of tax system is guessed. The importance of this study is the fact that this is first study intended to the calculation of the weighted price elasticity of tax for Turkey. In this sense, it will be instructive study for the reconsideration of the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries”.

Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M. Nagy; Al-Awadi, Mohammad

2001-01-01

In this study, a vector autoregression model (VAR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984-1998 were utilised. Theoretically and empirically speaking, VECM is superior to the VAR approach. Also, the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense. However, the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues, to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part, the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure, both development and current. However, government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significant of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also, the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter, even more than its own variations. (Author)

7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Gas prices and price process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenewegen, G.G.

1992-01-01

On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

76 FR 40844 - Changes to Move Update Standards

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-12

... under the previous regulatory framework (the Postal Reorganization Act or PRA), in which a markup factor... percentages cannot exceed the CPI price-cap even if the attributable cost per piece has risen faster than the...

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

State Prices and Implementation of the Recovery Theorem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Backwell

2015-01-01

Full Text Available It is generally held that derivative prices do not contain useful predictive information, that is, information relating to the distribution of future financial variables under the real-world measure. This is because the market’s implicit forecast of the future becomes entangled with market risk preferences during derivative price formation. A result derived by Ross [1], however, recovers the real-world distribution of an equity index, requiring only current prices and mild restrictions on risk preferences. In addition to being of great interest to the theorist, the potential practical value of the result is considerable. This paper addresses implementation of the Ross Recovery Theorem. The theorem is formalised, extended, proved and discussed. Obstacles to application are identified and a workable implementation methodology is developed.

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

approach we derive a closed form option pricing formula for energy quanto options, under the assumption that the underlying assets are log-normally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive delta and gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options have increased significantly in the recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature and are suited for managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using an HJM...... expressions for hedging. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NYMEX traded natural gas futures and CME traded Heating Degree Days futures for New York....

The shadow price of aircraft noise nuisance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Praag, B.M.S.; Baarsma, B.E.

2000-01-01

This paper has a twofold objective. First, we develop a new method toassess the monetary value for individuals of external effects (viz., aircraftnoise nuisance) which are not or only partly internalized in market prices. The method makes use of an ordinal index of life satisfaction as scored by

Corruption Cases Mapping Based on Indonesia’s Corruption Perception Index

Science.gov (United States)

Noerlina; Wulandhari, L. A.; Sasmoko; Muqsith, A. M.; Alamsyah, M.

2017-01-01

Government plays an important role in nation economic growth. Nevertheless, there are still many occurrences of government officers abusing their offices to do an act of corruption. In this order, the central government should pay attention to every area in the nation to avoid corruption case. Meanwhile, the news media always constantly preach about corruption case, this makes the news media relevant for being one of the sources of measurement of corruption perception index (CPI). It is required to map the corruption case in Indonesia so the central government can pay attention to every region in Indonesia. To develop the mapping system, researchers use Naïve Bayes Classifier to classify which news articles talk about corruption and which news articles are not, before implementing a Naïve Bayes Classifier there are some text processing such as tokenizing, stopping, and stemming.

The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naghdi Yazdan

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

On Volatility Swaps for Stock Market Forecast: Application Example CAC 40 French Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halim Zeghdoudi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps under Heston model (1993. To this end, we apply this model to the empirical financial data: CAC 40 French Index. More precisely, we make an application example for stock market forecast: CAC 40 French Index to price swap on the volatility using GARCH(1,1 model.

Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polikevych Nataliya I.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

Effect of Carcass Traits on Carcass Prices of Holstein Steers in Korea

OpenAIRE

Alam, M.; Cho, K. H.; Lee, S. S.; Choy, Y. H.; Kim, H. S.; Cho, C. I.; Choi, T. J.

2013-01-01

The present study investigated the contribution of carcass traits on carcass prices of Holstein steers in Korea. Phenotypic data consisted of 76,814 slaughtered Holsteins (1 to 6 yrs) from all over Korea. The means for live body weight at slaughter (BWT), chilled carcass weight (CWT), dressing percentage (DP), quantity grade index (QGI), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BF) and marbling score (MS), carcass unit price (CUP), and carcass sell prices (CSP) were 729.0 kg, 414.2 kg, 56.79...

Energy at what price? Energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favennec, J.P.; Amic, E.; Darmois, G.

2006-01-01

In 2005, the whole world had to stand a real energy shock due to the rise of oil, gas and electricity prices. The perspective of a possible shortage, even at the prospect of several decades, has led to a deep change of the world energy market. In this context, this book supplies a clear and didactical presentation of the mechanisms of petroleum, gas and electricity markets, with their advantages and limitations. At the time of a globalization of economy, the book analyzes the consequences of markets deregulation on the energy prices and tries to answer several main questions: why such a price volatility? Who will take the risk of investing now? Will the energy actors of the present day concentration be in a dominating position? Content: 1 - energy, markets and energy markets; 2 - crude oil and petroleum product markets; 3 - gas markets; 4 - electric power markets; 5 - perspectives. Glossary. Index. (J.S.)

The U.S. Arms Embargo of 1975-1978 and Its Effects on the Development of the Turkish Defense Industry

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

Turkish Defense Industry 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 93 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION...Organization CPI consumer price inflation DIEC Defense Industry Executive Committee DP Democrat Party EEC European Economic Community EOKA...sugar, and flour . With the return of men to their homes after World War I and the Independence War, Turkey experienced a dramatic increase in

Pricing of surgeries for colon cancer: patient severity and market factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

2012-12-01

This study examined effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. The MarketScan Database (data from 2002-2007) was used to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n = 1035 and n = 6389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.9% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (adjusted odds ratio = 1.109; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.062, 1.158) and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (adjusted odds ratio = 0.936; 95% CI = 0.880, 0.996). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than that of open surgery (transformed coefficient = 0.927; 95% CI = 0.895, 0.960). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (transformed coefficient = 0.985; 95% CI = 0.977, 0.992), whereas a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (transformed coefficient = 1.016; 95% CI = 1.006, 1.027; P prices. Moreover, laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. Copyright © 2012 American Cancer Society.

Scala Mobile, salari e prezzi in un modello di equilibrio di lungo periodo. (Full wage indexation, salaries and prices in a model of long-run equilibrium.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. NICCOLI

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In questo lavoro vengono esaminati gli effetti a lungo termine di piena indicizzazione dei salari ai prezzi in un sistema economico . In particolare , l'autore dimostra che la piena indicizzazione dei salari , mentre amplifica i fenomeni inflazionistici , non influenza il livello o tasso di crescita dei salari reali .Viene proposto  un meccanismo alternativo con effetti inflazionistici molto più piccoli ..In this paper the long-term effects of full wage indexation to prices in an economic system are examined. In particular, the author shows that full wage indexation, while amplifying the inflationary phenomena, does not affect the level or growth rate of real wages. An alternative mechanism with much smaller inflationary effects is then proposed.JEL: E31

Cigarette availability and price in low and high socioeconomic areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalglish, Emma; McLaughlin, Deirdre; Dobson, Annette; Gartner, Coral

2013-08-01

To determine whether tobacco retailer density and cigarette prices differ between low and high socioeconomic status suburbs in South-East Queensland. A survey of retail outlets selling cigarettes was conducted in selected suburbs over a two-day period. The suburbs were identified by geographical cluster sampling based on their Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage score and size of retail complex within the suburb. All retail outlets within the suburb were visited and the retail prices for the highest ranking Australian brands were recorded at each outlet. A significant relationship was found between Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage score (in deciles) and the number of tobacco retail outlets (r=0.93, p=0.003), with the most disadvantaged suburbs having a greater number of tobacco retailers. Results also demonstrate that cigarettes were sold in a broader range of outlets in suburbs of low SES. The average price of the packs studied was significantly lower in the most disadvantaged suburbs compared to the most advantaged. While cigarettes were still generally cheaper in the most disadvantaged suburbs, the difference was no longer statistically significant when the average price of cigarette packs was compared according to outlet type (supermarket, newsagent, etc). In South-East Queensland, cigarettes are more widely available in the most disadvantaged suburbs and at lower prices than in the most advantaged suburbs. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

PEMILIHAN SAHAM YANG OPTIMAL MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dioda Ardi Wibisono

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Optimal portfolio is the basis for investors to invest in stock. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is a method to determine the value of the risk and return of a company stock. This research uses a secondary data from the closing price of the monthly stock price (monthly closing price, Stock Price Index (SPI, and the monthly SBI rate. The samples of this research are 41 stocks in LQ45 February-July 2015 on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (ISE. The study period is during 5 year from October 2010 - October 2015. The result of analysis shows that the optimal portfolio consists of 18 companies. The average return of the optimal portfolio is higher than the average risk-free return (SBI rate and the average market return. This proves that investing in stocks is more profitable than a risk-free investment. � Keywords: Stock, CAPM, return, risk�

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyue Qiu

Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Test of arbitrage pricing theory using macroeconomic variables

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Eyerusalem

variables; namely, exchange rate, an index of industrial production, nominal money supply ... Key Words: Arbitrage Pricing, Macroeconomic variables, Stock Market ... or theoretical market indices, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented ... Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Volume XXI, No 1, April 2012. 3.

Relating price strategies and price-setting practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Lans, van der I.A.

2013-01-01

Purpose - This article addresses the relationship between price strategies and price-setting practices. The first derive from a normative tradition in the pricing literature and the latter from a descriptive tradition. Price strategies are visible in the market, whereas price-setting practices are

Una estimación del traspaso de las variaciones en el tipo de cambio a los precios en México

OpenAIRE

Cortés Espada, Josué Fernando

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the CPI. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

Non-fiscal price incentives. The energy-efficiency impact of differentiated energy prices; Niet-fiscale prijsprikkels. Onderzoek naar het besparingseffect van gedifferentieerde energieprijzen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leguijt, C.; Blom, M.B.J.; Schepers, B.L.; Warringa, G.E.A.

2012-02-15

An exploratory study has been carried out on the potential impact of non-fiscal energy incentives. The study will feed into the Dutch government policies on energy efficiency in the built environment. The study takes in both electricity and gas, and private dwellings as well as utility buildings. The following non-fiscal price incentives were considered: (1) consumer prices indexed to consumption volume; (2) consumer prices indexed to time of consumption; (3) the energy-efficiency impact of 'autonomous' increases in energy prices. The energy-efficiency effects of price changes (options 1 and 3) were calculated on the basis of price elasticities, while for option 2 use was made of the results of the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Smart Grids carried out by CE Delft in collaboration with KEMA. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (a) Although differentiating consumer prices by consumption volume may yield energy savings of up to 2%, this would require market agreements in breach of the competition rules underpinning the liberalised energy market. This option is therefore unfeasible via consumer prices; (b) The energy savings accruing from indexing consumer prices to time of consumption are uncertain, as the main impact will be a temporal shift in consumption. This option is highly feasible, as such differentiation will in all likelihood evolve of its own accord with the roll-out of smart meters and smart grids; (c) The energy-efficiency impact of autonomous energy price rises is 0.2 to 0.4% per annum [Dutch] CE Delft heeft in opdracht van het Ministerie van Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijkrelaties (BZK) een verkenning uitgevoerd naar de mogelijkheden voor niet-fiscale energieprijsprikkels. De studie maakt onderdeel uit van het plan van aanpak energiebesparing gebouwde omgeving van BZK. De verkenning betreft zowel elektriciteit als gas, en zowel huishoudens als utiliteitbouw. De niet-fiscale prijsprikkels die zijn verkend betreffen: (1

Noteworthy: oil markets: Saudis abandon WTI price as benchmark

OpenAIRE

Jackson Thies

2010-01-01

Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company no longer uses West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as its pricing benchmark. Saudi Aramco, the third largest U.S. oil supplier, switched to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) in January.

Pricing and Hedging Quanto Options in Energy Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benth, Fred Espen; Lange, Nina; Myklebust, Tor Åge

2015-01-01

–Jarrow–Morton approach, we derive a closed-form option pricing formula for energy quanto options under the assumption that the underlying assets are lognormally distributed. Our approach encompasses several interesting cases, such as geometric Brownian motions and multifactor spot models. We also derive Delta and Gamma......In energy markets, the use of quanto options has increased significantly in recent years. The payoff from such options are typically written on an underlying energy index and a measure of temperature. They are suited to managing the joint price and volume risk in energy markets. Using a Heath...... expressions for hedging. Further, we illustrate the use of our model by an empirical pricing exercise using NewYork Mercantile Exchange-traded natural gas futures and Chicago Mercantile Exchange-traded heating degree days futures for NewYork....

7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1033.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.50 Section 1033.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1005.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.50 Section 1005.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1001.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.50 Section 1001.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1006.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.50 Section 1006.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1126.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.50 Section 1126.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1131.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.50 Section 1131.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1007.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.50 Section 1007.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Henry Hub and national balancing point prices: what will be the international gas price reference?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, A.E.H.

2005-01-01

candidates to serve as a marker price in the international trade of gas. The objective of this paper is to examine some fundamental properties of the HH and NBP prices and assess which of them has the biggest potential to become an international price reference. Our main conclusions are: According to the relatively huge volume of gas traded on the US spot market, compared with the UK and according to the experience accumulated by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in gas trading, the HH price has a bigger potential than the NBP to become an international price reference, particularly because the UK market is supposed to import more and more gas indexed to oil in the coming years. However, on the price fluctuation side, the NBP spot price seems to fluctuate more normally than the HH price in the short term, which can give a certain advantage to NBP prices. We cannot exclude the fact that in the coming years we will have two or even more reference prices in the Atlantic Basin: the NBP, the HH and also reference prices at other regional hubs. (author)

Clinical evaluation of 99mTc-CPI myocardial perfusion single photon emission computerized tomography in the diagnosis of coronary heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Changping

1991-01-01

Two normal subjects, 5 patients with old myocardial infarction (OMI) and 4 patients with angina pectoris were examined by rest single photon emission computerized tomography revealed that the right ventricular was not imaged, the left ventricular was well exposed in the normal subjects. All the 9 patients had defects in the left ventricle. comparison of SPECT with 99m Tc-CPI with selective coronary arteriography (SCA), echocardiography (UCG), dynamic electrocardiography (DCG) and electrocardiographic (ECG)-exercise test in the diagnosis of myocardial ischemia or necrosis has demonstrated the former to be more significantly sensitive than the latter four. Good agreement between SPECT and SCA has been confirmed

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Deborah A; Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-07-01

We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in "food deserts" in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity.

Store Impulse Marketing Strategies and Body Mass Index

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Rebecca; Hunter, Gerald; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Dubowitz, Tamara

2015-01-01

Objectives. We quantified the use of placement and price reduction marketing strategies in different food retail outlets to identify associations between these strategies and the risk of overweight and obesity among customers. Methods. In 2011 we collected dietary and health information from 1372 residents in “food deserts” in Pittsburgh, PA. We audited neighborhood restaurants and food stores (n = 40) including 16 distant food venues at which residents reported shopping. We assessed end-aisle displays, special floor displays, cash register displays, and price reductions for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars; and nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and products with at least 51% whole grains. Results. Supermarkets and superstores had the largest numbers of displays and price reductions for low-nutrient foods. Exposure to displays of SSBs and foods high in saturated oils, fats, and added sugars and price reduction of SSBs was associated with increased body mass index. Conclusions. In-store marketing strategies of low-nutrient foods appear to be risk factors for a higher body mass index among regular shoppers. Future research is needed to confirm the causal role of marketing strategies in obesity. PMID:25521881

7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

The price of fixed income market volatility

CERN Document Server

Mele, Antonio

2015-01-01

Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

Seasonal variation of prices of sugar cane, ethanol and electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melo, Carmem Ozana de; Silva, Gerson Henrique da; Bueno, Osmar de Carvalho; Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal price of sugar cane, fuel alcohol (hydrated and anhydrous) and electricity tariffs as a way of aiding tool for optimization of energy generation, using biomass originating from cane sugar. Using the method of moving average centered was concluded that cane and electricity rates were close to seasonal average, with low range of prices, suggesting the non-occurrence of seasonal variation in prices. Unlike the seasonal indices of ethanol showed seasonal variation of prices with greater amplitude of seasonal index. Thus, the results suggest that the utilization of by-products of sugar cane to produce electrical power points to the prospect of reducing risks associated with variations in the price of ethanol, thereby contributing to greater stability and possibility to those involved in planning alcohol sector. (author)

How weak are the signals? International price indices and multinational enterprises

OpenAIRE

Lorraine Eden; Peter Rodriguez

2004-01-01

International price indices (IPIs) provide the most timely and comprehensive market information available to international business. How do multinational enterprises (MNEs) affect the validity of IPIs? We review the earlier debate over methods for calculating IPIs, which concluded that unit values were inferior to specification prices, although most governments produce only unit value indexes. We explore three ways in which MNEs can affect the validity of IPIs: determining the ‘representative...

Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

OpenAIRE

Michael D. Noel

2007-01-01

This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

2012-09-15

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

77 FR 14041 - Major Portion Prices and Due Date for Additional Royalty Payments on Indian Gas Production in...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-08

... index zone pricing. We approved the Ute Indian Tribe's request; therefore, you must value production... due date for industry to pay additional royalties based on the major portion prices. This notice... additional royalties based on the major portion prices is May 7, 2012. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John...

Determinants of economic freedom of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation economic community

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen Debbie C. Magallon

2016-01-01

Full Text Available One of the determinants of the well-being of people across the world is economic freedom. It is the freedom to choose the ways to produce, sell, and use your private resources, while respecting rights of the other to practice the same. The primordial intention of the study was to investigate the factors affecting economic freedom in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN Economic Community. Human Development Index (HDI, Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI and GDP per capita are dimensions considered to characterize the level of a country’s economic freedom. Trend performance of AEC in these indexes was also determined. The empirical estimate was based on a panel dataset covering 6 member-countries of the ASEAN Economic Community from 2001 to 2010. The model was estimated through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS multiple linear regression analysis. For the trend performance of the indexes, Singapore found to have a remarkable performance. The empirical result strongly suggests that CPI and GDP per capita foster economic freedom. For every 1% decrease in CPI would lead to an increase in economic freedom index by.121 % and for every 1% increase in GDP per capita, EFI will increase by .019%.

Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

OpenAIRE

Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

1994-01-01

We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

Equity in Pharmaceutical Pricing and Reimbursement: Crossing the Income Divide in Asia Pacific.

Science.gov (United States)

Daems, Rutger; Maes, Edith; Glaetzer, Christoph

2013-05-01

The article takes a three-dimensional approach (triangulation) in defining international pricing policy for pharmaceuticals using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), willingness-to-pay (WTP) analysis, and ability-to-pay (ATP) analysis. It attempts to find a balance between the various economic methods of which some focus on effectiveness while others are geared toward incorporating equity in the equation. A critical review of the first two established economic methods and their ability to evaluate not only "efficacy" but also "fairness" in pricing decisions identifies a gap in the latter. Therefore, a third analytic method is presented that measures the ATP based on a country's score in the human development index of the United Nations Development Program for 120 countries. This approach allows practicing differential pricing among and within countries. To refine this equity-driven pricing concept, two additional parameters can be added to the model: the Oxford "Multidimensional Poverty Index" and the "Out-of-Pocket" or "Self Pay" health expenditure as reported by the World Bank. There is no hierarchy between the above three pricing methods. Because one method provides further insight into the other, however, it is recommended to start with CEA followed by WTP analysis. These types of analysis are closely linked in that the first provides the CE ratio for the compound investigated and the other sets the anticipated ceiling threshold of the payer's WTP (in a particular country). The ATP method provides a supplementary "equity" check and facilitates the process of equity-based differential pricing. A third method should be used in conjunction with the standard CEA and WTP analysis that measures the ATP with the human development index as yardstick to provide sustainable and equitable access to medicines. We recommend that ATP analysis becomes an additional practice in policy decision making and in defining international pricing strategies for pharmaceuticals

Minimum alcohol pricing policies in practice: A critical examination of implementation in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Kara; Stockwell, Tim; Wettlaufer, Ashley; Giesbrecht, Norman; Thomas, Gerald

2017-02-01

There is an interest globally in using Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of alcohol to promote public health. Canada is the only country to have both implemented and evaluated some forms of minimum alcohol prices, albeit in ways that fall short of MUP. To inform these international debates, we describe the degree to which minimum alcohol prices in Canada meet recommended criteria for being an effective public health policy. We collected data on the implementation of minimum pricing with respect to (1) breadth of application, (2) indexation to inflation and (3) adjustments for alcohol content. Some jurisdictions have implemented recommended practices with respect to minimum prices; however, the full harm reduction potential of minimum pricing is not fully realised due to incomplete implementation. Key concerns include the following: (1) the exclusion of minimum prices for several beverage categories, (2) minimum prices below the recommended minima and (3) prices are not regularly adjusted for inflation or alcohol content. We provide recommendations for best practices when implementing minimum pricing policy.

The short-term impact of Ontario's generic pricing reforms.

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Michael R Law

Full Text Available Canadians pay amongst the highest generic drug prices in the world. In July 2010, the province of Ontario enacted a policy that halved reimbursement for generic drugs from the public drug plan, and substantially lowered prices for private purchases. We quantified the impact of this policy on overall generic drug expenditures in the province, and projected the impact in other provinces had they mimicked this pricing change.We used quarterly prescription generic drug dispensing data from the IMS-Brogan CompuScript Audit. We used the price per unit in both the pre- and post-policy period and two economics price indexes to estimate the expenditure reduction in Ontario. Further, we used the post-policy Ontario prices to estimate the potential reduction in other provinces.We estimate that total expenditure on generic drugs in Ontario during the second half of 2010 was between $181 and $194 million below what would be expected if prices had remained at pre-policy level. Over half of the reduction in spending was due to savings on just 10 generic ingredients. If other provinces had matched Ontario's prices, their expenditures over during the latter half of 2010 would have been $445 million lower.We found that if Ontario's pricing scheme were adopted nationally, overall spending on generic drugs in Canada would drop at least $1.28 billion annually--a 5% decrease in total prescription drug expenditure. Other provinces should seriously consider both changes to their generic drug prices and the use of more competitive bulk purchasing policies.

Industrial pricing in Brazil in the 2010s: The pass-through effect

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Felipe Câmara

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to discuss the impact of costs on industrial inflation in Brazil. Assuming that inflation is mainly cost-push, this paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through on industrial prices. Based on Kalecki’s price equation, the paper explores data from the producer price index from 2010 onward. One of the main findings is that more than 60% of the inflationary acceleration in the industrial prices can be explained by exchange rate devaluations. The econometric exercise also showed that when demand increases, even if labor unit costs do not change, firms increase their profit margin. Finally, the paper questions the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy, when the diagnosis to the pressure on prices comes from the costs, and not from demand.

OPEC and the world oil prices: Is the genie back in the bottle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffin, J.M.

1992-01-01

After reviewing and analyzing OPEC's behavior in the past two decades, a simulation model is employed to explore plausible paths for oil prices. OPEC's members are subdivided into analytically convenient maximizing groups. Lener index analysis is applied to measure observed market power and the potential monopoly power for the cartel core. Price paths for the 1990s under alternative OPEC configurations are presented, and it is suggested that the return to monopolization is large. Price levels of the 1970s were not sustainable even with a perfectly disciplined cartel core. Long run supply and demand elasticities were much greater than OPEC expected. Even though cheating contributed to OPEC's predicament in the 1980s, the primary determinant of oil price decline was external market forces. Future price instability is possible for both political and economic reasons, with a likely scenario of prices oscillating around the cartel core's optimum price path that features prices in the present range rising moderately. 8 refs., 6 tabs., 3 figs

Impacts of Street-Visible Greenery on Housing Prices: Evidence from a Hedonic Price Model and a Massive Street View Image Dataset in Beijing

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Yonglin Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Street greenery is a component of urban green infrastructure. By forming foundational green corridors in urban ecological systems, street greenery provides vital ecological, social, and cultural functions, and benefits the wellbeing of citizens. However, because of the difficulty of quantifying people’s visual perceptions, the impact of street-visible greenery on housing prices has not been fully studied. Using Beijing, which has a mature real estate market, as an example, this study evaluated 22,331 transactions in 2014 in 2370 private housing estates. We selected 25 variables that were classified into three categories—location, housing, and neighbourhood characteristics—and introduced an index called the horizontal green view index (HGVI into a hedonic pricing model to measure the value of the visual perception of street greenery in neighbouring residential developments. The results show that (1 Beijing’s homebuyers would like to reside in residential units with a higher HGVI; (2 Beijing’s homebuyers favour larger lakes; and (3 Beijing’s housing prices were impacted by the spatial development patterns of the city centre and multiple business centres. We used computer vision to quantify the street-visible greenery and estimated the economic benefits that the neighbouring visible greenery would have on residential developments in Beijing. This study provides a scientific basis and reference for policy makers and city planners in road greening, and a tool for formulating street greening policy, studying housing price characteristics, and evaluating real estate values.

International gas pricing in Europe and Asia: A crisis of fundamentals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, Jonathan

2014-01-01

In Continental Europe and LNG importing Asia, international gas prices reflect the market fundamentals of the 1970s–1990s when gas was replacing oil products and crude oil in energy balances. By the end of the 2000s, fundamentals in both these regions had changed significantly, but gas price formation mechanisms had not. This created major problems for buyers locked into long term contracts indexed to crude oil and oil product prices, which had risen to levels far above gas market fundamentals. By 2013, the transition to hub-based pricing was well advanced in Europe and dominant in the large markets in the north west of the Continent. In Asia the “crisis of fundamentals” was only just starting to be addressed with a transition to market pricing an urgent imperative, but still a distant prospect. - Highlights: • International gas prices in Europe and LNG importing Asia no longer reflect market fundamentals. • This became highly problematic in Europe post-2008 and in Japan post-Fukushima. • The result has been a significant switch to hub pricing in Europe. • In Asia, no substantial action has been taken beyond some new contracts based on Henry Hub prices

Impact of company performances on the stock price: An empirical analysis on select companies in Serbia

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Milošević-Avdalović Snežana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The global financial crisis of the late 2007 has provoked unprecedented shocks to the world markets and weaken investors' confidence due to the turbulent movements and frequent changes of stock prices. Emerging capital markets suffer from unsatisfactory corporate governance, market manipulation and insider trade problems. In such circumstances, institutional investors, managers, analysts and other market participants are in constant search of the trading strategy that will outperform the market. This research is an instrument for the identification of the main determinants of stock prices on the Belgrade Stock Exchange. The panel data regression analysis includes 42 companies that represent the composition of the BelexLine index for the period from 2010 to 2014. The paper looks at the impact of specific (internal variables of companies, such as company size, return on assets, return on equity, earnings per stock, book value, price-earning ratio, price-to-book ratio and leverage and the stock price of companies that compose the BelexLine index. The results indicate that variables such as the size of the company measured by assets, return on assets, leverage, earnings per stock, book value and price-to-book ratio provide a unique contribution to a statistically significant predictor of stock prices.

Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, GabJin

2014-06-01

In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets

OpenAIRE

Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh

1988-01-01

A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...

Output Price Risk, Material Input Price Risk, and Price Margins: Evidence from the US Catfish Industry.

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David Bouras

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Aim/purpose - To develop a conceptual model for analyzing the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins. Design/methodology/approach - To analyze the combined effect of output price risk and material input risk on price margins, we use a series of comparative static analyses, GARCH models, and data ranging from 1990/01 to 2012/12. Findings - The theoretical results indicate that the impact of output price risk and the impact of material input price risk on price margins are ambiguous and, to a great extent, hinge on the correlation between output price and material input price. The empirical results show that whole frozen catfish price risk and live catfish price risk negatively affect the price margin for frozen catfish. The empirical results, however, indicate that the risk of the price of live catfish affects markedly the price margin for frozen whole catfish in contrast to the impact of the risk of the price of frozen whole catfish. Research implications/limitations - The empirical results have significant implications for managerial decision-making especially when crafting strategies for improving price margins. Accordingly, in order to beef up the price margin for frozen whole catfish, catfish processors may consider engaging in vertical integration. This paper has some limitations: first, it assumes that firms operate in competitive markets; second, it assumes that firms produce and sell a single product. Originality/value/contribution - Unlike earlier studies that focused solely on the effect of output price risk on price margins, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins.

Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia

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Rulyusa Pratikto

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor. Abstrak Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan dampak dari perubahan harga terhadap kemiskinan, serta juga untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketimpangan inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil yang menarik diperoleh dari analisa pada tingkat provinsi. Pertama, kemiskinan pada provinsi Jakarta memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda. Inflasi pada makanan jadi dan transportasi justru memiliki dampak yang lebih merugikan masyarakat miskin. Kedua, masyarakat miskin yang berada di provinsi dengan tingkat kemiskinan relatif rendah justru lebih sensitif terhadap inflasi. Secara umum, inflasi bahan makanan merupakan faktor terbesar dalam peningkatan kemiskinan. Selain itu, masyarakat miskin telah mengalami total inflasi yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan masyarakat tidak miskin. Kata kunci: Kemiskinan; Inflasi; Elastisitas Harga terhadap Kemiskinan; Pro-Poor Price Index; Price Index for the Poor JEL classifications: E3; I3; O1; R2

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: a unification.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Khan, M; Sun, Y

1997-04-15

We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset's return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting.

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors for...

Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

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Travis C. Tai

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1 compiling reported prices explicitly listed as “for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil” to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2 including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3 increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all end-products. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

Index Fund Selections with GAs and Classifications Based on Turnover

Science.gov (United States)

Orito, Yukiko; Motoyama, Takaaki; Yamazaki, Genji

It is well known that index fund selections are important for the risk hedge of investment in a stock market. The`selection’means that for`stock index futures’, n companies of all ones in the market are selected. For index fund selections, Orito et al.(6) proposed a method consisting of the following two steps : Step 1 is to select N companies in the market with a heuristic rule based on the coefficient of determination between the return rate of each company in the market and the increasing rate of the stock price index. Step 2 is to construct a group of n companies by applying genetic algorithms to the set of N companies. We note that the rule of Step 1 is not unique. The accuracy of the results using their method depends on the length of time data (price data) in the experiments. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a more`effective rule’for Step 1. The rule is based on turnover. The method consisting of Step 1 based on turnover and Step 2 is examined with numerical experiments for the 1st Section of Tokyo Stock Exchange. The results show that with our method, it is possible to construct the more effective index fund than the results of Orito et al.(6). The accuracy of the results using our method depends little on the length of time data (turnover data). The method especially works well when the increasing rate of the stock price index over a period can be viewed as a linear time series data.

Metal prices in the United States through 2010

Science.gov (United States)

,

2013-01-01

prices, which has been helpful in the preparation of this publication. Prices in this report have been graphed in 1992 constant dollars to show the effects of inflation as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, a widely used measure of overall inflation in the United States. These prices are not tabulated, but a table of the deflators used is given in an appendix. Constant dollar prices can be used to show how prices that producers receive would have less purchasing power.

Influence of Market Competition on Tetracycline Pricing and Impact of Price Increases on Clinician Prescribing Behavior.

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Barbieri, John S; Margolis, David J; Brod, Bruce A

2017-12-01

Oral tetracyclines are commonly used for acne and other conditions. Recent generic price increases threaten access to these medications. Using the OptumInsight Clinformatics DataMart, we retrospectively evaluated the underlying factors behind these price increases for oral tetracylines using the framework of a competitive market and evaluated the impact of these price increases on prescribing practices. Between 2011 and 2013, the mean cost of doxycycline hyclate prescriptions increased from $7.16 to $139.89 and the mean out-of-pocket cost increased by $9.69. A comparable cost increase was not observed for doxycycline monohydrate or minocycline. There was no significant association between the cost of doxycycline hyclate and market concentration as assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (β = 0.030, 95% confidence interval -0.019 to 0.079, P = 0.213) and the market was highly concentrated throughout the study period. The percentage of prescriptions for doxycycline hyclate decreased by 1.9% from 2011 to 2013. This dramatic increase in the cost of doxycycline hyclate is not easily explained using the framework of a competitive market, suggesting that noncompetitive market forces may be responsible. In addition, clinicians have not altered their prescribing behavior in response to this price increase, suggesting that clinician or pharmacy level interventions could potentially increase the use of less costly substitutes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solid supported microwave induced synthesis of imidazole–pyrimidine hybrids: Antimicrobial evaluation and docking study as 14DM-CPY51 inhibitors

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Naziyanaz B. Pathan

2016-09-01

Full Text Available As part of our exploration for new antifungal agents, substituted 4,5-diphenyl imidazolyl pyrimidine hybrids were synthesized. A series of substituted ethyl 1,2,3,6-tetrahydro-4-methyl-2-oxo/thioxo-6-phenyl-1-(4,5-diphenyl-1-H-imidazol-2-yl pyrimidine-5-carboxylates have been studied for their binding active sites of cytochrome P450 14α-sterol demethylase CPY51 enzyme. For comparison, the binding behavior of known 14DM selective (Fluconazole and non-selective (Clotrimazole, Miconazole, Griesofulvin drugs has also been studied. Synthesized compounds were screened for their in vitro antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella typhi, Pseudomonas aurogenosa and Klebsiella pneumonae and also antifungal activity against the opportunistic pathogens Candida albicans.

The impact of oil-price shocks on Hawaii's economy: A case study using vector autoregression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopalakrishnan, C.; Tian, X.; Tran, D.

1991-01-01

The effects of oil-price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of a non-oil-producing, oil-importing state are studied in terms of Hawaii's experience (1974-1986) using Vector Autoregression (VAR). The VAR model contains three macrovariables-real oil price, interest rate, and real GNP, and three regional variable-total civilian labor force, Honolulu consumer price index, and real personal income. The results suggested that oil-price shock had a positive effect on interest rate as well as local price (i.e., higher interest and higher local price), but a negative influence on real GNP. The negative income effect, however, was offset by the positive employment effect. The price of oil was found to be exogenous to all other variables in the system. The macrovariables exerted a pronounced impact on Hawaii's economy, most notably on consumer price

American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stentoft, Lars Peter

In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...

Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

2011-01-01

This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

Organic Matter Fractions and Quality of the Surface Layer of a Constructed and Vegetated Soil After Coal Mining. II - Physical Compartments and Carbon Management Index

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Otávio dos Anjos Leal

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Soils constructed after mining often have low carbon (C stocks and low quality of organic matter (OM. Cover crops are decisive for the recovery process of these stocks, improving the quality of constructed soils. Therefore, the goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of cover crops on total organic C (TOC stocks, C distribution in physical fractions of OM and the C management index (CMI of a soil constructed after coal mining. The experiment was initiated in 2003 with six treatments: Hemarthria altissima (T1, Paspalum notatum (T2, Cynodon dactylon (T3, Urochloa brizantha (T4, bare constructed soil (T5, and natural soil (T6. Soil samples were collected in 2009 from the 0.00-0.03 m layer, and the TOC and C stocks in the physical particle size fractions (carbon in the coarse fraction - CCF, and mineral-associated carbon - MAC and density fractions (free light fraction - FLF; occluded light fraction - OLF, and heavy fraction - HF of OM were determined. The CMI components: carbon pool index (CPI, lability (L and lability index (LI were estimated by both fractionation methods. No differences were observed between TOC, CCF and MAC stocks. The lowest C stocks in FLF and OLF fractions were presented by T2, 0.86 and 0.61 Mg ha-1, respectively. The values of TOC stock, C stock in physical fractions and CMI were intermediate, greater than T5 and lower than T6 in all treatments, indicating the partial recovery of soil quality. As a result of the better adaptation of the species Hemarthria and Brizantha, resulting in greater accumulation of labile organic material, the CPI, L, LI and CMI values were higher in these treatments, suggesting a greater potential of these species for recovery of constructed soils.

Insurer Market Power Lowers Prices In Numerous Concentrated Provider Markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheffler, Richard M; Arnold, Daniel R

2017-09-01

Using prices of hospital admissions and visits to five types of physicians, we analyzed how provider and insurer market concentration-as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-interact and are correlated with prices. We found evidence that in the range of the Department of Justice's and Federal Trade Commission's definition of a moderately concentrated market (HHI of 1,500-2,500), insurers have the bargaining power to reduce provider prices in highly concentrated provider markets. In particular, hospital admission prices were 5 percent lower and cardiologist, radiologist, and hematologist/oncologist visit prices were 4 percent, 7 percent, and 19 percent lower, respectively, in markets with high provider concentration and insurer HHI above 2,000, compared to such markets with insurer HHI below 2,000. We did not find evidence that high insurer concentration reduced visit prices for primary care physicians or orthopedists, however. The policy dilemma that arises from our findings is that there are no insurer market mechanisms that will pass a portion of these price reductions on to consumers in the form of lower premiums. Large purchasers of health insurance such as state and federal governments, as well as the use of regulatory approaches, could provide a solution. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ranhang; Chen, Shouyu

2008-08-01

A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.

Price strategy and pricing strategy: terms and content identification

OpenAIRE

Panasenko Tetyana

2015-01-01

The article is devoted to the terminology and content identification of seemingly identical concepts "price strategy" and "pricing strategy". The article contains evidence that the price strategy determines the direction, principles and procedure of implementing the company price policy and pricing strategy creates a set of rules and practical methods of price formation in accordance with the pricing strategy of the company.

Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models