WorldWideScience

Sample records for price equilibrium analyses

  1. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  2. Regret Theory and Equilibrium Asset Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiliang Sheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Regret theory is a behavioral approach to decision making under uncertainty. In this paper we assume that there are two representative investors in a frictionless market, a representative active investor who selects his optimal portfolio based on regret theory and a representative passive investor who invests only in the benchmark portfolio. In a partial equilibrium setting, the objective of the representative active investor is modeled as minimization of the regret about final wealth relative to the benchmark portfolio. In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to a behavioral asset priciting model. We show that the market beta and the benchmark beta that is related to the investor’s regret are the determinants of equilibrium asset prices. We also extend our model to a market with multibenchmark portfolios. Empirical tests using stock price data from Shanghai Stock Exchange show strong support to the asset pricing model based on regret theory.

  3. Equilibrium Price Dispersion in a Matching Model with Divisible Money

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamiya, K.; Sato, T.

    2002-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to show that, for any given parameter values, an equilibrium with dispersed prices (two-price equilibrium) exists in a simple matching model with divisible money presented by Green and Zhou (1998).We also show that our two-price equilibrium is unique in certain

  4. Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

    2004-06-01

    The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

  5. Price competition and equilibrium analysis in multiple hybrid channel supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Guihua; Wang, Aihu; Sha, Jin

    2017-06-01

    The amazing boom of Internet and logistics industry prompts more and more enterprises to sell commodity through multiple channels. Such market conditions make the participants of multiple hybrid channel supply chain compete each other in traditional and direct channel at the same time. This paper builds a two-echelon supply chain model with a single manufacturer and a single retailer who both can choose different channel or channel combination for their own sales, then, discusses the price competition and calculates the equilibrium price under different sales channel selection combinations. Our analysis shows that no matter the manufacturer and retailer choose same or different channel price to compete, the equilibrium price does not necessarily exist the equilibrium price in the multiple hybrid channel supply chain and wholesale price change is not always able to coordinate supply chain completely. We also present the sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of equilibrium price and coordination wholesale price.

  6. With timing options and heterogeneous costs, the lognormal diffusion is hardly an equilibrium price process for exhaustible resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, D.

    1992-01-01

    The report analyses the possibility that the lognormal diffusion process should be an equilibrium spot price process for an exhaustible resource. A partial equilibrium model is used under the assumption that the resource deposits have different extraction costs. Two separate problems have been pointed out. Under full certainty, when the process reduces to an exponentially growing price, the equilibrium places a very strong restriction on a relationship between the demand function and the cost density function. Under uncertainty there is an additional problem that during periods in which the price is lower than its previously recorded high, no new deposits will start extraction. 30 refs., 1 fig

  7. On price equilibrium with multi-product firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we provide a result that shows existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in cases in which existent methods are problematic to apply. We employ this result to the model with simple logit demand, and show existence and uniqueness of price equilibrium when firms produce

  8. The market equilibrium of OPEC's pricing mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, S.; Madan, V.

    1990-01-01

    At least twice a year, oil ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna or Geneva to adjust the group's output ceiling to eliminate discrepancies between the market price and the target price. If the market imbalances are persistent, then the target price is also adjusted. Often, OPEC's members differ in their assessment of future market demand for their oil and, thus, present different views on the need to adjust the output celing and the target price. During periods of downward pressures on oil prices, the high absorbers of capital (i.e., oil revenues) prefer a speedy downward adjustment to the celing, while the low absorbers are slow to react. However, in the event of tightening markets, the low absorbers usually respond by exceeding their quotas before agreeing on a ceiling adjustment. Therefore, OPEC nations have different desirable speeds of adjustment. This paper specifies and examines the stability of OPEC's pricing mechanism. It presents a strategy which would enable the organization to achieve a target price-based market equilibrium with increased rapidity through the appropriate manipulation of the speed of output ceiling adjustment. This strategy is applied using data on market and target prices, actual output, and output ceilings for the first quarter of 1991. The main finding is that, given the target price, OPEC's equilibrium market demand is significantly lower than the assigned output ceiling. Production should have been reduced by at least 3 million barrels a day for OPEC to realize the $21 per barrel target price in the first quarter of 1991. Seasonal factors can cause slight variations in this output but would not bring out compatibility between the target price and the output ceiling within a reasonable period of time unless OPEC follows an activist policy of output adjustment. 3 figs., 1 tab

  9. Multi-period equilibrium/near-equilibrium in electricity markets based on locational marginal prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Bertrand, Raquel

    In this dissertation we propose an equilibrium procedure that coordinates the point of view of every market agent resulting in an equilibrium that simultaneously maximizes the independent objective of every market agent and satisfies network constraints. Therefore, the activities of the generating companies, consumers and an independent system operator are modeled: (1) The generating companies seek to maximize profits by specifying hourly step functions of productions and minimum selling prices, and bounds on productions. (2) The goals of the consumers are to maximize their economic utilities by specifying hourly step functions of demands and maximum buying prices, and bounds on demands. (3) The independent system operator then clears the market taking into account consistency conditions as well as capacity and line losses so as to achieve maximum social welfare. Then, we approach this equilibrium problem using complementarity theory in order to have the capability of imposing constraints on dual variables, i.e., on prices, such as minimum profit conditions for the generating units or maximum cost conditions for the consumers. In this way, given the form of the individual optimization problems, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the generating companies, the consumers and the independent system operator are both necessary and sufficient. The simultaneous solution to all these conditions constitutes a mixed linear complementarity problem. We include minimum profit constraints imposed by the units in the market equilibrium model. These constraints are added as additional constraints to the equivalent quadratic programming problem of the mixed linear complementarity problem previously described. For the sake of clarity, the proposed equilibrium or near-equilibrium is first developed for the particular case considering only one time period. Afterwards, we consider an equilibrium or near-equilibrium applied to a multi-period framework. This model embodies binary

  10. The equilibrium price range of oil: economics, politics and uncertainty in the formation of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.-N.

    1995-01-01

    This paper attempts to clarify the articulation between economic and political factors in the formation of petroleum prices. The essential point is that when factors control significant low cost reserves and will not or cannot adopt behaviour of a 'substantial economic rationality' then the economic analysis does not allow a unique dynamic equilibrium price to be determined. However, it does permit definition of an equilibrium price range within which political preferences may be expressed. Finally, the paper draws some conclusions on what could be discussed within the scope of a new oil producer-consumer dialogue. (author)

  11. World Oil Price and Biofuels : A General Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 20...

  12. Distributional impacts of carbon pricing: A general equilibrium approach with micro-data for households

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, Sebastian; Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Reilly, John M.

    2011-01-01

    Many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions. Carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices. A complete analysis requires taking both effects into account. The impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups. It is also affected by precise formulation of the policy (how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed) as well as the treatment of other government policies (e.g. the treatment of transfer payments). What is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups. In this paper, we incorporate 15,588 households from the U.S. Consumer and Expenditure Survey data as individual agents in a comparative-static general equilibrium framework. These households are represented within the MIT USREP model, a detailed general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we categorize households by full household income (factor income as well as transfer income) and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low-income (e.g., retired households drawing down their financial assets) from permanently low-income households. We also provide detailed within-group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios. - Highlights: → We develop a simulation model with 15,588 households to study the distributional impacts of carbon pricing in the US. → Sources side impacts have typically been ignored in the literature biasing studies towards finding carbon pricing to be regressive. → Our general equilibrium framework allows us to capture uses and sources side impacts from carbon pricing. → We find that variation in impacts within broad socioeconomic groups may

  13. Dynamic pricing in the spanish gasoline market. A tacit collusion equilibrium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdiguero Garcia, Jordi

    2010-01-01

    During the last twenty years, the Spanish petrol market has undergone an intensive restructuration process; it has changed from being a state-owned monopoly to total liberalization and privatization. This liberalization process was accompanied by measures that facilitated the creation of a 'national champion', the Repsol Group, which is a huge, vertically integrated company with a high market share in all the industry's segments. Using a dynamic model, this paper analyses whether the prices established by companies in the Spanish gasoline market, after the restructuration process, fits with a tacit collusion equilibrium. The empirical results show that a strategic behaviour of companies occurs and is compatible with a tacit collusion price strategy. So, the restructuration process does not seem to have introduced effective competition into the Spanish gasoline market. (author)

  14. Existence of nash equilibrium in competitive nonlinear pricing games with adverse selection

    OpenAIRE

    Monteiro, P. K.

    2003-01-01

    We show that for a large class of competitive nonlinear pricing games with adverse selection, the property of better-reply security is naturally satisfied - thus, resolving via a result due to Reny (1999) the issue of existence of Nash equilibrium for a large class of competitive nonlinear pricing games.

  15. Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.

  16. Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.

    We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure based on a nonlinear version of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We analyze the behavior of firms’ pricing decisions in four different experimental economies. We consider how

  17. Spatial equilibrium energy prices: a proposal for trade in electric power under deregulation and privatization of the generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, S.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of spatial equilibrium prices for electricity is presented based on incremental generating costs and transmission costs between major generating and load centers, which may be individual generators, utilities or countries. The equilibrium price changes in time and space, with the important property that these prices, if used for trading of electricity, results in all loads being served at minimal total cost. A network modeling approach for determining optimal operation of an interconnected system of utilities and independent generators simultaneously calculates these equilibrium prices. The methodology determines optimal generation by each utility, transactions between them, and the flows in the transmission network. 11 refs., 3 figs

  18. Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship. The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arano, Kathleen; Velikova, Marieta

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines market cointegration of city-gate and residential natural gas prices. Cointegration of gas prices across different segments of the industry provides evidence that deregulation has resulted into a more integrated, competitive natural gas industry where gas prices converge into a long-run equilibrium. Our results indicate prices further down the distribution line, the final two points of consumption, are cointegrated for a majority of the US states post open access and retail unbundling, although we find little evidence of perfect market integration. The two price series likewise converge to the long-run equilibrium faster post open access and retail unbundling. Results relative to state level unbundling (choice programs) reveal mixed outcomes with a few states without retail unbundling exhibiting market integration while some states with full unbundling exhibiting non-cointegration. (author)

  19. Tiered gasoline pricing: A personal carbon trading perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yao; Fan, Jin; Zhao, Dingtao; Wu, Yanrui; Li, Jun

    2016-01-01

    This paper proffers a tiered gasoline pricing method from a personal carbon trading perspective. An optimization model of personal carbon trading is proposed, and then, an equilibrium carbon price is derived according to the market clearing condition. Based on the derived equilibrium carbon price, this paper proposes a calculation method of tiered gasoline pricing. Then, sensitivity analyses and consumers' surplus analyses are conducted. It can be shown that a rise in gasoline price or a more generous allowance allocation would incur a decrease in the equilibrium carbon price, making the first tiered price higher, but the second tiered price lower. It is further verified that the proposed tiered pricing method is progressive because it would relieve the pressure of the low-income groups who consume less gasoline while imposing a greater burden on the high-income groups who consume more gasoline. Based on these results, implications, limitations and suggestions for future studies are provided. - Highlights: • Tiered gasoline pricing is calculated from the perspective of PCT. • Consumers would be burdened with different actual gasoline costs. • A specific example is provided to illustrate the calculation of TGP. • The tiered pricing mechanism is a progressive system.

  20. An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2009-01-01

    Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

  1. The long-run equilibrium impact of intermittent renewables on wholesale electricity prices

    OpenAIRE

    Newbery, D.

    2016-01-01

    High levels of low variable cost intermittent renewables lower wholesale electricity prices, and the depression of these prices could legitimately be recovered from consumers, preferably through capacity payments. Given that renewables are frequently subsidized for their learning benefits and carbon reduction, this paper asks what part of these subsidies should be recovered from final consumers. In long-run equilibrium, renewables have no impact on the number of hours peaking capacity runs, a...

  2. Efficient "Myopic" Asset Pricing in General Equilibrium: A Potential Pitfall in Excess Volatility Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Willem H. Buiter

    1987-01-01

    Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bo...

  3. The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxiu He

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In Beijing, China, the rational consumption of energy is affected by the insufficient linkage mechanism of the energy pricing system, the unreasonable price ratio and other issues. This paper combines the characteristics of Beijing’s energy market, putting forward the society-economy equilibrium indicator R maximization taking into consideration the mitigation cost to determine a reasonable price ratio range. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE model, and dividing four kinds of energy sources into three groups, the impact of price fluctuations of electricity and natural gas on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI, energy consumption and CO2 and SO2 emissions can be simulated for various scenarios. On this basis, the integrated effects of electricity and natural gas price shocks on the Beijing economy and environment can be calculated. The results show that relative to the coal prices, the electricity and natural gas prices in Beijing are currently below reasonable levels; the solution to these unreasonable energy price ratios should begin by improving the energy pricing mechanism, through means such as the establishment of a sound dynamic adjustment mechanism between regulated prices and market prices. This provides a new idea for exploring the rationality of energy price ratios in imperfect competitive energy markets.

  4. Marginal abatement cost curves in general equilibrium: The influence of world energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klepper, Gernot; Peterson, Sonja

    2006-01-01

    Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) are a favorite instrument to analyze international emissions trading. This paper focuses on the question of how to define MACCs in a general equilibrium context where the global abatement level influences energy prices and in turn national MACCs. We discuss the mechanisms theoretically and then use the CGE model DART for quantitative simulations. The result is, that changes in energy prices resulting from different global abatement levels do indeed affect national MACCs. Also, we compare different possibilities of defining MACCs-of which some are robust against changes in energy prices while others vary considerably. (author)

  5. Quantity Constrained General Equilibrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babenko, R.; Talman, A.J.J.

    2006-01-01

    In a standard general equilibrium model it is assumed that there are no price restrictions and that prices adjust infinitely fast to their equilibrium values.In case of price restrictions a general equilibrium may not exist and rationing on net demands or supplies is needed to clear the markets.In

  6. Value Added Tax and price stability in Nigeria: A partial equilibrium analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Ikpe

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of Value Added Tax (VAT that was implemented in Nigeria in 1994 has generated much debate in recent times, especially with respect to its effect on the level of aggregate prices. This study empirically examines the influence of VAT on price stability in Nigeria using partial equilibrium analysis. We introduced the VAT variable in the framework of a combination of structuralist, monetarist and fiscalist approaches to inflation modelling. The analysis was carried out by applying multiple regression analysis in static form to data for the 1994-2010 period. The results reveal that VAT exerts a strong upward pressure on price levels, most likely due to the burden of VAT on intermediate outputs. The study rules out the option of VAT exemptions for intermediate outputs as a solution, due to the difficulty in distinguishing between intermediate and final outputs. Instead, it recommends a detailed post-VAT cost-benefit analysis to assess the social desirability of VAT policy in Nigeria.

  7. Uranium price trends for use in strategy analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.A.

    1979-09-01

    Long-term price forecasts for mined uranium are quoted. These will be used in Ontario Hydro's nuclear fuel cycle strategy analyses. They are, of necessity, speculative. The accuracy of the forecasts is considered adequate for long-term strategy analyses, but not for other purposes. (auth)

  8. Non-equilibrium price theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, Dirk; Kern, Daniel

    2000-11-01

    We propose two theories for the formation of stock prices under the condition that the number of available stocks is fixed. Both theories consider the balance equations for cash and several kinds of stocks. They also take into account interest rates, dividends, and transaction costs. The proposed theories have the advantage that they do not require iterative procedures to determine the price, which would be inefficient for simulations with many agents.

  9. Implementation of Equilibrium-Price Model to the Estimation of Import Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadulla Hasanli

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the the import inflationary processes as a result of feedbacks of mutual economic relations of World countries. It is used Equilibrium Price Model to estimate the import inflationary processes in CIS countries. The study investigates the further results regarding the import inflationary processes in the CIS countries on the scenario of increasing the Value Added norm in Russia. As well as by standpoint of economic growth and price stability, the recent revaluation of US dollar in the World and its impacts to total output of other countries have been investigated in details. In other words due to revaluation of the US dollar, if the final product decreases in USA, this decreasing impact how to be transmitted to the world countries have been estimated by the Input-Output Table in this study as well. The work is fulfilled on the Input-Output data for the year 2011. This study assumes theoretical and practical importance in defining the monetary policy.

  10. Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and the Optimal Consumption-Leisure Choice under Equilibrium Price Dispersion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Malakhov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the optimal consumption-leisure choice under equilibrium price dispersion discovers the methodological difference between problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. While the phenomenon of moral hazard represents the individual behavioral reaction on the marginal rate of substitution of leisure for consumption proposed by the insurance policy, the adverse selection can take place on any imperfect market under equilibrium price dispersion and it looks like a market phenomenon of a natural selection between consumers with different income and different propensity to search. The analysis of health insurance where the propensity to search takes the form of the propensity to seek healthcare demonstrates that moral hazard takes place when the insurance policy proposes a suboptimal consumption-leisure choice and the increase in consumption of medical services with the reduction of leisure time represents not an unlimited demand for “free goods” but the simple process of the consumption-leisure optimization. The path of consumerism with consumer-directed plans can solve partly the problem of moral hazard because in order to eliminate moral hazard this trend should come to the re-sale of medical services under health vouchers like it takes place in the life settlement.

  11. How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

  12. How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Raouf Sheybani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

  13. Dynamic Price Dispersion of Storable Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2014-01-01

    with different search costs and willingness to wait. I demonstrate that the high-price-low-price pattern is rational for storable goods. In a Markov-perfect equilibrium, agents’ actions depend on consumer inventory, and purchase decisions are characterized by a critical price. The equilibrium price series...

  14. The Equilibrium Decisions in a Two-Echelon Supply Chain under Price and Service Competition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Han

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This article studies a supply chain composed of a manufacturer and two competing retailers. The manufacturer produces two substitutable products and offers respective service levels to customers who buy one of the two products. Each retailer can only order one kind of product from the manufacturer, and then sell them to the market at a certain sale price. The demands for two products are influenced not only by the service levels the manufacturer provides, but also the sales prices of the two products. Furthermore, we investigate the equilibrium behavior of members in the supply chain with the aid of the Stackelberg game, and discover a number of insights concerning some important parameters. Finally, Numerical analysis is presented to validate our theoretical results and compare channel performances.

  15. Impacts Of External Price Shocks On Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abul Quasem Al-Amin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impacts of external price shocks in the Malaysian economy. There are three simulations are carried out with different degrees of external shocks using Malaysian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE analysis. The model results indicate that the import price shocks, better known as external price shocks by 15% decreases the domestic production of building and construction sector by 25.87%, hotels, restaurants and entertainment sector by 12.04%, industry sector by 12.02%, agriculture sector by 11.01%, and electricity and gas sector by 9.55% from the baseline. On the import side, our simulation results illustrate that as a result of the import price shocks by 15%, imports decreases significantly in all sectors from base level. Among the scenarios, the largest negative impacts goes on industry sectors by 29.67% followed by building and construction sector by 22.42%, hotels, restaurants and entertainment sector by 19.45%, electricity and gas sector by 13.%, agriculture sector by 12.63% and other service sectors by 11.17%. However significant negative impact goes to the investment and fixed capital investment. It also causes the household income, household consumption and household savings down and increases the cost of livings in the economy results in downward social welfare.

  16. Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

  17. Equilibrium pricing and ordering policies in a two-echelon supply chain in the presence of strategic customers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadjadi, Seyed J; Naeij, Jafar; Shavandi, Hasan; Makui, Ahmad

    2016-06-07

    This paper studying the impact of strategic customer behavior on decentralized supply chain gains and decisions, which includes a supplier, and a monopoly firm as a retailer who sells a single product over a finite two periods of selling season. We consider three types of customers: myopic, strategic and low-value customers. The problem is formulated as a bi-level game where at the second level (e.g. horizontal game), the retailer determines his/her equilibrium pricing strategy in a non-cooperative simultaneous general game with strategic customers who choose equilibrium purchasing strategy to maximize their expected surplus. At the first level (e.g. vertical game), the supplier competes with the retailer as leader and follower in the Stackelberg game. They set the wholesale price and initial stocking capacity to maximize their profits. Finally, a numerical study is presented to demonstrate the impacts of strategic behavior on supply chain gain and decisions; subsequently the effects of market parameters on decision variables and total profitability of supply chain's members is studied through a sensitivity analysis.

  18. Equilibrium pricing and ordering policies in a two-echelon supply chain in the presence of strategic customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEYED J. SADJADI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper studying the impact of strategic customer behavior on decentralized supply chain gains and decisions, which includes a supplier, and a monopoly firm as a retailer who sells a single product over a finite two periods of selling season. We consider three types of customers: myopic, strategic and low-value customers. The problem is formulated as a bi-level game where at the second level (e.g. horizontal game, the retailer determines his/her equilibrium pricing strategy in a non-cooperative simultaneous general game with strategic customers who choose equilibrium purchasing strategy to maximize their expected surplus. At the first level (e.g. vertical game, the supplier competes with the retailer as leader and follower in the Stackelberg game. They set the wholesale price and initial stocking capacity to maximize their profits. Finally, a numerical study is presented to demonstrate the impacts of strategic behavior on supply chain gain and decisions; subsequently the effects of market parameters on decision variables and total profitability of supply chain's members is studied through a sensitivity analysis.

  19. Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

    2004-09-01

    Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

  20. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO 2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO 2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO 2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO 2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  1. Quick Link Selection Method by Using Pricing Strategy Based on User Equilibrium for Implementing an Effective Urban Travel Demand Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahriar Afandizadeh Zargari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a two-stage model of optimization as a quick method to choose the best potential links for implementing urban travel demand management (UTDM strategy like road pricing. The model is optimized by minimizing the hidden cost of congestion based on user equilibrium (MHCCUE. It forecasts the exact amount of flows and tolls for links in user equilibrium condition to determine the hidden cost for each link to optimize the link selection based on the network congestion priority. The results show that not only the amount of total cost is decreased, but also the number of selected links for pricing is reduced as compared with the previous toll minimization methods. Moreover, as this model just uses the traffic assignment data for calculation, it could be considered as a quick and optimum solution for choosing the potential links.

  2. Delivered Pricing, FOB Pricing, and Collusion in Spatial Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Paz Espinosa

    1992-01-01

    This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...

  3. Distinguish natural sources out of secular equilibrium with their parents or daughters in Gamma ray spectrum analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao Yahong; Liu Yigang

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To determine materials containing natural radionuclides in or out secular equilibrium with their parents or daughters. Methods: In gamma ray spectrum analyses, the activity concentration of every daughter is the same as that of its parent when the material is in secular equilibrium. The activity concentrations of daughters and their parents are different when the material is out of secular equilibrium. Results: It is different to determine whether the exposures from these materials should be exempted that materials containing natural radionuclides are in or out of secular equilibrium with their parents or daughters. Conclusion: It is important to determine materials containing natural radionuclides in or out secular equilibrium with their parents or daughters in gamma ray spectrum analyses. (authors)

  4. An analysis of capacity and price trajectories for the Ontario electricity market using dynamic Nash equilibrium under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genc, T.S.; Suvrajeet Sen

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies investments in the Ontario Electricity Market which is currently being restructured. Our methodology is based on the concept of S-adapted open-loop Nash equilibrium. We examine the evolution of capital investments and pricing behavior of suppliers as uncertain electricity demand evolves over time (in Ontario). This study is particularly interesting since we compare the implications of two policies: (i) the current setting in which Ontario Power Generation (OPG) retains its generation units; (ii) the policy (set up in 2003) that required the divestiture of the largest supplier, OPG, and aimed to increase the number of independent suppliers in Ontario. We mainly focus on the independent generators like Bruce Nuclear. We use the tools of Stochastic Programming to compute the S-adapted open-loop Nash equilibrium market outcomes. We find that in the three-player market total capacity installation and market prices are higher than the ones in the five-player market. That is higher capacity may not necessarily alleviate exercise of market power. We also confirm the prediction by the National Energy Board that in a market with five major players, OPG's market share may reduce to a percentage between 35% and 40%. (author)

  5. Location-Price Competition in Airline Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses location-then-price competition in airline market as a two-stage game of n players on the graph. Passenger’s demand distribution is described by multinomial logit model. Equilibrium in price game is computed through best response dynamics. We solve location game using backward induction, knowing that airlines will choose prices from equilibrium for the second-stage game. Some numerical results for airline market under consideration are presented.

  6. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  7. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.durand@uclouvain.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel, E-mail: axel.pierru@ifp.f [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Smeers, Yves, E-mail: yves.smeers@uclouvain.ac.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a 'hard cap' or a 'soft cap'. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories-with two branches after 2020-for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.

  8. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  9. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small......Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...

  10. Price Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    Inspired by recent regulations in the New York ICAP market we examine the effect of different price regulations on a multi-unit uniform price auction. We investigate a bid cap and a bid foor. Given suffciently high total capacities general bid caps always ensure that the market price does...... not exceed the price cap whereas a selective bid cap for only the larger firms, does not guarantee this outcome. A sufficiently high bid floor always destroys pure strategy equilibria with equilibrium prices above the marginal costs, no matter whether the floor applies to all or only to relatively small...

  11. How energy conversion drives economic growth far from the equilibrium of neoclassical economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kümmel, Reiner; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2014-01-01

    Energy conversion in the machines and information processors of the capital stock drives the growth of modern economies. This is exemplified for Germany, Japan, and the USA during the second half of the 20th century: econometric analyses reveal that the output elasticity, i.e. the economic weight, of energy is much larger than energy's share in total factor cost, while for labor just the opposite is true. This is at variance with mainstream economic theory according to which an economy should operate in the neoclassical equilibrium, where output elasticities equal factor cost shares. The standard derivation of the neoclassical equilibrium from the maximization of profit or of time-integrated utility disregards technological constraints. We show that the inclusion of these constraints in our nonlinear-optimization calculus results in equilibrium conditions, where generalized shadow prices destroy the equality of output elasticities and cost shares. Consequently, at the prices of capital, labor, and energy we have known so far, industrial economies have evolved far from the neoclassical equilibrium. This is illustrated by the example of the German industrial sector evolving on the mountain of factor costs before and during the first and the second oil price explosion. It indicates the influence of the ‘virtually binding’ technological constraints on entrepreneurial decisions, and the existence of ‘soft constraints’ as well. Implications for employment and future economic growth are discussed. (paper)

  12. How energy conversion drives economic growth far from the equilibrium of neoclassical economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kümmel, Reiner; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2014-12-01

    Energy conversion in the machines and information processors of the capital stock drives the growth of modern economies. This is exemplified for Germany, Japan, and the USA during the second half of the 20th century: econometric analyses reveal that the output elasticity, i.e. the economic weight, of energy is much larger than energy's share in total factor cost, while for labor just the opposite is true. This is at variance with mainstream economic theory according to which an economy should operate in the neoclassical equilibrium, where output elasticities equal factor cost shares. The standard derivation of the neoclassical equilibrium from the maximization of profit or of time-integrated utility disregards technological constraints. We show that the inclusion of these constraints in our nonlinear-optimization calculus results in equilibrium conditions, where generalized shadow prices destroy the equality of output elasticities and cost shares. Consequently, at the prices of capital, labor, and energy we have known so far, industrial economies have evolved far from the neoclassical equilibrium. This is illustrated by the example of the German industrial sector evolving on the mountain of factor costs before and during the first and the second oil price explosion. It indicates the influence of the ‘virtually binding’ technological constraints on entrepreneurial decisions, and the existence of ‘soft constraints’ as well. Implications for employment and future economic growth are discussed.

  13. Quantifying the CO{sub 2} permit price sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruell, Georg; Kiesel, Ruediger [Duisburg-Essen Univ., Essen (Germany). Inst. of Energy Trading and Financial Services

    2012-06-15

    Equilibrium models have been widely used in the literature with the aim of showing theoretical properties of emissions trading schemes. This paper applies equilibrium models to empirically study permit prices and to quantify the permit price sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate that emission trading schemes both with and without banking are inherently prone to price jumps. (orig.)

  14. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamil, Faisal, E-mail: fsljml@hotmail.com [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Ahmad, Eatzaz, E-mail: eatzaz@qau.edu.pk [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2011-09-15

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: > The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. > Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. > We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. > The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. > Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  15. Equilibrium Selection with Risk Dominance in a Multiple-unit Unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    This paper uses an adapted version of the linear tracing procedure, suggested by Harsanyi and Selten (1988), in order to discriminate between two types of multiple Nash equilibria. Equilibria of the same type are pay-off equivalent in the analysed multiple-unit unit price auction where two seller...

  16. Comprehensive optimisation of China’s energy prices, taxes and subsidy policies based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Liu, Y.Y.; Du, M.; Zhang, J.X.; Pang, Y.X.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy policy is defined as a complication of energy price, tax and subsidy policies. • The maximisation of total social benefit is the optimised objective. • A more rational carbon tax ranges from 10 to 20 Yuan/ton under the current situation. • The optimal coefficient pricing is more conducive to maximise total social benefit. - Abstract: Under the condition of increasingly serious environmental pollution, rational energy policy plays an important role in the practical significance of energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper defines energy policies as the compilation of energy prices, taxes and subsidy policies. Moreover, it establishes the optimisation model of China’s energy policy based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which maximises the total social benefit, in order to explore the comprehensive influences of a carbon tax, the sales pricing mechanism and the renewable energy fund policy. The results show that when the change rates of gross domestic product and consumer price index are ±2%, ±5% and the renewable energy supply structure ratio is 7%, the more reasonable carbon tax ranges from 10 to 20 Yuan/ton, and the optimal coefficient pricing mechanism is more conducive to the objective of maximising the total social benefit. From the perspective of optimising the overall energy policies, if the upper limit of change rate in consumer price index is 2.2%, the existing renewable energy fund should be improved

  17. The geometry of finite equilibrium sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasko, Yves; Tvede, Mich

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the geometry of finite datasets defined by equilibrium prices, income distributions, and total resources. We show that the equilibrium condition imposes no restrictions if total resources are collinear, a property that is robust to small perturbations. We also show that the set...... of equilibrium datasets is pathconnected when the equilibrium condition does impose restrictions on datasets, as for example when total resources are widely noncollinear....

  18. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

    2011-01-01

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: → The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. → Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. → We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. → The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. → Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  19. The Geometry of Finite Equilibrium Datasets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasko, Yves; Tvede, Mich

    We investigate the geometry of finite datasets defined by equilibrium prices, income distributions, and total resources. We show that the equilibrium condition imposes no restrictions if total resources are collinear, a property that is robust to small perturbations. We also show that the set...... of equilibrium datasets is pathconnected when the equilibrium condition does impose restrictions on datasets, as for example when total resources are widely non collinear....

  20. Asymmetric Price Effects of Competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lach, S.; Moraga Gonzalez, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first-order

  1. Asymmetric price effects of competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lach, S.; Moraga González, José

    2017-01-01

    When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first‐order

  2. Who is exposed to gas prices? How gasoline prices affect automobile manufacturers and dealerships

    OpenAIRE

    Silva-Risso, Jorge; Zettelmeyer, Florian; Busse, Meghan R.; Knittel, Christopher Roland

    2016-01-01

    Many consumers are keenly aware of gasoline prices, and consumer responses to gasoline prices have been well studied. In this paper, by contrast, we investigate how gasoline prices affect the automobile industry: manufacturers and dealerships. We estimate how changes in gasoline prices affect equilibrium prices and sales of both new and used vehicles of different fuel economies. We investigate the implications of these effects for individual auto manufacturers, taking into account differences...

  3. Who is exposed to gas prices? How gasoline prices affect automobile manufacturers and dealerships

    OpenAIRE

    Busse, Meghan R.; Kittel, Christopher R.; Zettelmeyer, Florian

    2012-01-01

    Many consumers are keenly aware of gasoline prices, and consumer responses to gasoline prices have been well studied. In this paper, by contrast, we investigate how gasoline prices affect the automobile industry: manufacturers and dealerships. We estimate how changes in gasoline prices affect equilibrium prices and sales of both new and used vehicles of different fuel economies. We investigate the implications of these effects for individual auto manufacturers, taking into account differences...

  4. The Impact of Energy Price Decline on China's Energy-Economy-Environment System Variables Using a CGE Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Zhengquan; Wang, Daojuan; Chen, Chong

    In recent years, prices of coal and crude oil have fallen significantly. These declines have had a large impact on China’s energy-economy-environment system variables. This paper establishes a computable general equilibrium model to systematically analyse the impact of coal price changes alone...... or the decline of both coal and oil prices on the variables of China's energy-economy-environment system. The results of the analysis show that the decline of the coal price alone or of coal and crude oil prices together will lead to a significant increase in demand for either coal and total energy or coal...

  5. Competitive prices as profit-maximizing cartel prices

    OpenAIRE

    Houba, H.E.D.; Motchenkova, E.I.; Wen, Q.

    2010-01-01

    This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in Economics Letters, 114, 39-42. Even under antitrust enforcement, firms may still form a cartel in an infinitely-repeated oligopoly model when the discount factor is sufficiently close to one. We present a linear oligopoly model where the profit-maximizing cartel price converges to the competitive equilibrium price as the discount factor goes to one. We then identify a set of necessary conditions for this seemingly counter-intuitive result.

  6. Equilibrium and matching under price controls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herings, P.J.J.

    2015-01-01

    The paper considers a one-to-one matching with contracts model in the presence of price controls. This set-up contains two important streams in the matching literature, those with and those without monetary transfers, as special cases and allows for intermediate cases with some restrictions on the

  7. Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yougui; Stanley, H. E.

    2009-04-01

    A statistical approach to market equilibrium and efficiency analysis is proposed in this paper. One factor that governs the exchange decisions of traders in a market, named willingness price, is highlighted and constitutes the whole theory. The supply and demand functions are formulated as the distributions of corresponding willing exchange over the willingness price. The laws of supply and demand can be derived directly from these distributions. The characteristics of excess demand function are analyzed and the necessary conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium point of the market are specified. The rationing rates of buyers and sellers are introduced to describe the ratio of realized exchange to willing exchange, and their dependence on the market price is studied in the cases of shortage and surplus. The realized market surplus, which is the criterion of market efficiency, can be written as a function of the distributions of willing exchange and the rationing rates. With this approach we can strictly prove that a market is efficient in the state of equilibrium.

  8. The Analysis of Pricing Power of Preponderant Metal Mineral Resources under the Perspective of Intergenerational Equity and Social Preferences: An Analytical Framework Based on Cournot Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meirui Zhong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper combines intergenerational equity equilibrium and social preferences equilibrium with Cournot equilibrium solving the technological problem of intergenerational equity and strategic value compensation confirmation, achieving the effective combination between sustainable development concept and value evaluation, thinking and expanding the theoretical framework for the lack of pricing power of mineral resources. The conclusion of the theoretical model and the numerical simulation shows that intergenerational equity equilibrium and social preferences equilibrium enhance international trade market power of preponderant metal mineral resources owing to the production of intergenerational equity compensation value and strategic value. However, the impact exerted on Cournot market power by social preferences is inconsistent: that is, changes of altruistic Cournot equilibrium and reciprocal inequity Cournot equilibrium are consistent, while inequity aversion Cournot equilibrium has the characteristic of loss aversion, namely, under the consideration of inequity aversion Cournot competition, Counot-Nash equilibrium transforms monotonically with sympathy and jealousy of inequity aversion.

  9. Hierarchical energy and frequency security pricing in a smart microgrid: An equilibrium-inspired epsilon constraint based multi-objective decision making approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rezaei, Navid; Kalantar, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Proposing a multi-objective security pricing mechanism for islanded microgrids. • Generating Pareto points using epsilon constraint methodology. • Best compromise solution using a novel decision making approach. • An equilibrium-inspired technique is used as an efficient decision making method. • Stochastic management of hierarchical reserves in a droop controlled microgrid. - Abstract: The present paper formulates a frequency security constrained energy management system for an islanded microgrid. Static and dynamic securities of the microgrids have been modeled in depth based on droop control paradigm. The derived frequency dependent modeling is incorporated into a multi-objective energy management system. Microgrid central controller is in charge to determine optimal prices of energy and frequency security such that technical, economic and environmental targets are satisfied simultaneously. The associated prices are extracted based on calculating related Lagrange multipliers corresponding to providing the microgrid hourly energy and reserve requirements. Besides, to generate optimal Pareto solutions of the proposed multi-objective framework augmented epsilon constraint method is applied. Moreover, a novel methodology on the basis of Nash equilibrium strategy is devised and employed to select the best compromise solution from the generated Pareto front. Comprehensive analysis tool is implemented in a typical test microgrid and executed over a 24 h scheduling time horizon. The energy, primary and secondary frequency control reserves have been scheduled appropriately in three different case-studies which are defined based on the microgrid various operational policies. The optimization results verify that the operational policies adopted by means of the microgrid central controller have direct impacts on determined energy and security prices. The illustrative implementations can give the microgrid central controller an insight view to provide

  10. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  11. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  12. Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

    2013-01-01

    The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

  13. Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Werner

    2012-01-01

    Price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset's fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles when either one of ...

  14. Have oil and gas prices got separated?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdős, Péter

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies vector error correction models that show that oil and natural gas prices decoupled around 2009. Before 2009, US and UK gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude prices to which gas prices always reverted after exogenous shocks. Both US and UK gas prices adjusted to the crude oil price individually, and departure from the equilibrium gas price on one continent resulted in a similar departure on the other. After an exogenous shock, the adjustment between US and UK gas prices took approximately 20 weeks on average, and the convergence was mediated mainly by crude oil with a necessary condition that arbitrage across the Atlantic was possible. After 2009, however, the UK gas price has remained integrated with oil price, but the US gas price decoupled from crude oil price and the European gas price, as the Atlantic arbitrage has halted. The oversupply from shale gas production has not been mitigated by North American export, as there has been no liquefying and export capacity. - Highlights: ► VEC models are applied to investigate the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. ► While natural gas prices in Europe and Asia react to oil price, US gas price decoupled from oil in 2009. ► Since 2009, the US gas price has decoupled from the European and Asian gas prices.

  15. Strategic pricing of equity issues

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus Ritzberger; Frank Milne

    2002-01-01

    Consider a general equilibrium model where agents may behave strategically. Specifically, suppose some firm issues new shares. If the primary market price is controlled by the issuing institution and investors' expectations on future equity prices are constant in their share purchases, the share price on the primary market cannot exceed the secondary market share price. In certain cases this may imply strict underpricing of newly issued shares. If investors perceive an influence on future sha...

  16. The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

  17. Competition and the Reference Pricing Scheme for pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghislandi, Simone

    2011-12-01

    By introducing n (>1) firms with infinite cross-price elasticity (i.e. generic drugs), we explore the effects of competition on the optimal pricing strategies under a Reference Pricing Scheme (RPS). A two-stage model repeated infinite number of times is presented. When stage 1 is competitive, the equilibrium in pure strategies exists and is efficient only if the reference price (R) does not depend on the price of the branded product. When generics collude, the way R is designed is crucial for both the stability of the cartel among generics and the collusive prices in equilibrium. An optimally designed RPS must set R as a function only of the infinitely elastic side of the market and should provide the right incentives for competition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Price Competition or Tacit Collusion

    OpenAIRE

    Yano, Makoto; Komatsubara, Takashi

    2012-01-01

    Every now and then, we observe a fierce price war in a real world market, through which competing firms end up with a Bertrand-like price competition equilibrium. Despite this, very little has been known in the existing literature as to why a price competition market is formed. We address this question in the context of a choice between engaging in price competition and holding a price leader. Focusing on a duopoly market, we demonstrate that if supply is tight relative to demand, and if the ...

  19. Pricing Analysis in Geo/Geo/1 Queueing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the equilibrium behavior of customers and optimal pricing strategies of servers in a Geo/Geo/1 queueing system. Two common pricing mechanisms are considered. The first one is called ex-post payment (EPP scheme where the server collects tolls proportional to queue times, and the second one is called ex-ante payment (EAP scheme where the server charges a flat fee for the total service. The server sets the toll price to maximize its own profit. It is found that, under a customer’s choice equilibrium, the two toll mechanisms are equivalent from the economic point of view. Finally, we present several numerical experiments to investigate the effects of system parameters on the equilibrium customer joining rate and servers’ profits.

  20. Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maack, Laetitia de; Lantz, Frederic

    2012-09-01

    This study examines the relationship between crude oil and petroleum products prices in the European, Asian and North American markets. We develop an econometric model, based on the long term equilibrium between the prices, which takes into account the changes in the oil product demand trends. We explain price behaviors by the impact of the demand trends. Because the refining industry which transforms crude into petroleum products is a joint product industry, petroleum product pricing is affected by demand trends both in terms of quality and quantity. Consequently, the long term equilibrium between prices, estimated through a co-integration approach, are affected by several structural breaks. We also develop a panel econometric model which simultaneously takes into account the relative prices of ail world products towards one crude. Finally, the different results are compared to the marginal costs derived from an oil refining optimization model. This econometric modeling approach enables a better understanding of the long term equilibrium between prices of petroleum products and crude. (authors)

  1. Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, Deborah; De Mello, Lurion

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes' emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation. - Highlights: • We analyse two emissions trading schemes in Australia. • We test for their effect on wholesale electricity prices. • The test uses generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis. • The tests find long run relationship between the variables in both the samples. • The short run-dynamics indicate that they play a minimal role in electricity prices

  2. Capacity pricing in a free market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangensteen, Ivar; Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2005-01-01

    This report deals primarily with pricing of reserve capacity, partly on a theoretical basis and partly based on practical experience from the Norwegian market. In the theoretical part we describe a simple model for investigation of equilibrium prices on capacity reserves, spot power and regulating power. This model is based on strong simplifying assumptions. Next a computer model is introduced. That enables more complexity and makes it possible to analyse more realistic scenarios. Finally the report describes experiences from the Norwegian market. The Norwegian System Operator, Statnett, is responsible for the Balancing Market (BM) and Reserves Option Market (ROM), which was introduced a few years ago as a separate market for reserves. Experience with these market instruments are generally good and Statnett is preparing a new version for the winter 2004/2005. The report deals with generation as well as consumer side capacity reserves. One interesting observation is that in Norway the consumer side is providing more capacity reserves than the generators, but the consumers normally bid in a higher BM price than the generators. (author)

  3. A Dynamic Economy with Costly Price Adjustment

    OpenAIRE

    Leif Danziger

    1998-01-01

    This paper studies a general-equilibrium model of a dynamic economy with menu costs. Each firm's productivity is exposed to idiosyncratic and aggregate productivity shocks around a trend, and the money supply to monetary shocks around a trend. All consumption, pricing, and production decisions are based on optimizing behavior. There exists a staggered Markov perfect equilibrium with prices determined by a two-sided (s,S) markup strategy. The paper analyzes the optimal markup strategy and inve...

  4. Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnave, Hélène; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

  5. Unit of Account, Medium of Exchange, and Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Young Sik Kim; Manjong Lee

    2011-01-01

    The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity-money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller¡¯s choice with regard to posting price in terms of either an MoE or a UoA. If the likelihood of debasement of MoE or its rate is high enough and agents are sufficiently risk averse, there exists a monetary equilibrium in which price is quoted in terms of a UoA. Further, a UoA-posting equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas ...

  6. Equilibrium models and variational inequalities

    CERN Document Server

    Konnov, Igor

    2007-01-01

    The concept of equilibrium plays a central role in various applied sciences, such as physics (especially, mechanics), economics, engineering, transportation, sociology, chemistry, biology and other fields. If one can formulate the equilibrium problem in the form of a mathematical model, solutions of the corresponding problem can be used for forecasting the future behavior of very complex systems and, also, for correcting the the current state of the system under control. This book presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts in economics, including several models from related sciences.- Presents a unifying look on different equilibrium concepts and also the present state of investigations in this field- Describes static and dynamic input-output models, Walras, Cassel-Wald, spatial price, auction market, oligopolistic equilibrium models, transportation and migration equilibrium models- Covers the basics of theory and solution methods both for the complementarity and variational inequality probl...

  7. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  8. Measuring the influence of Canadian carbon stabilization programs on natural gas exports to the United States via a 'bottom-up' intertemporal spatial price equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, S.A.; Vikas, S.; Ribar, D.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we present the results of a study of the impact of Canadian carbon stabilization programs on exports of natural gas to the United States. This work was based on a study conducted for the US Environmental Protection Agency. The Gas Systems Analysis model (GSAM), developed by ICF Consulting for the US Department of Energy, was used to gauge the overall impact of the stabilization programs on the North American natural gas market. GSAM is an intertemporal, spatial price equilibrium (SPE) type model of the North American natural gas system. Salient features of this model include characterization of over 17 000 gas production reservoirs with explicit reservoir-level geologic and economic information used to build up the supply side of the market. On the demand side, four sectors, residential, commercial, industrial and electric power generation, are characterized in the model. Lastly, both above and below ground storage facilities as well as a comprehensive pipeline network are used with the supply and demand side characterizations to arrive at estimates of market equilibrium prices and quantities and flows. 35 refs

  9. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  10. A non-equilibrium neutral model for analysing cultural change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2013-08-07

    Neutral evolution is a frequently used model to analyse changes in frequencies of cultural variants over time. Variants are chosen to be copied according to their relative frequency and new variants are introduced by a process of random mutation. Here we present a non-equilibrium neutral model which accounts for temporally varying population sizes and mutation rates and makes it possible to analyse the cultural system under consideration at any point in time. This framework gives an indication whether observed changes in the frequency distributions of a set of cultural variants between two time points are consistent with the random copying hypothesis. We find that the likelihood of the existence of the observed assemblage at the end of the considered time period (expressed by the probability of the observed number of cultural variants present in the population during the whole period under neutral evolution) is a powerful indicator of departures from neutrality. Further, we study the effects of frequency-dependent selection on the evolutionary trajectories and present a case study of change in the decoration of pottery in early Neolithic Central Europe. Based on the framework developed we show that neutral evolution is not an adequate description of the observed changes in frequency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A study of Canadian retail gasoline prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckert, A.L.

    1999-05-01

    Retail gasoline pricing in Canadian markets was examined to demonstrate why retail prices tend to follow one of two distinct patterns and that neither pattern is observable in the wholesale price. In many cities, retail prices are more rigid than wholesale prices, while in other markets, retail prices follow a cyclic pattern not seen in wholesale prices. This study examined why constant prices are observed in some cities, while other cities have cyclic prices. Theoretical justification was given to the argument that prices will remain constant only in markets in which there are only few gasoline companies with a small number of stations, but a large per-station capacity. It was shown that when one firm operates significantly more stations than its rival, a constant cost equilibrium cannot be maintained. However, a cycle equilibrium can be constructed in this case, and also when the two companies are similarly sized. An initial examination of available price, cost and market structure data shows that there is a positive correlation between price stability and concentration. The response of retail prices to wholesale price movements in the presence of a retail price cycle was also examined through the use of a simple model based on the predictions of the above theory. Data for the city of Windsor, Ontario was used for the modelling approach. A new cycle is created by an increase in price whenever the distance between the previous retail price and the current wholesale prices is very small. Retail prices are more responsive to wholesale prices over the increasing portion of the cycle. It was shown that when the asymmetric error correction model of Borenstein, Cameron and Gilbert is estimated, it indicates a more rapid response to wholesale price increases than to decreases. 72 refs., 22 tabs., 8 figs

  12. A spatial price equilibrium model in the oligopolistic market for oil derivatives: an application to the brazilian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Mezadre Pompermayer

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spatial price equilibrium model in an oligopoly market for refined oil products. Till 1997 the Brazilian oil market was characterized by the state monopoly of Petrobras, which up to 2001 remained the only firm authorized to import oil derivatives. With several agents operating in the primary oil supply market, the government stopped fixing the prices for Petrobras, which started to determine the prices based on competition with other players. In this new scenario some questions arise regarding the price levels at which refined products will be supplied in different regions across Brazil as well as the capacity of national refineries to compete with imported products. To answer those and other questions, a new oligopoly spatial equilibrium model is herein proposed, taking into account the special characteristics of production of refined oil products. An iterative Gauss-Seidel-like algorithm with sequential adjustments was developed and applied to Brazilian market data. The model, the algorithm and its application are described in this work. Such a model may be used both by regulatory authorities and by companies in the sector.Este artigo apresenta um modelo de equilíbrio espacial de preços em um mercado oligopolizado de derivados de petróleo. Até o ano de 1997, o mercado brasileiro era caracterizado pelo monopólio estatal da Petrobrás, a qual permaneceu, até 2001, como a única empresa autorizada a importar derivados de petróleo. Com vários agentes operando no mercado, o governo deixou de fixar os preços para a Petrobrás, que passou a determinar os preços baseada na competição com outros agentes. Neste cenário, surgem algumas questões relativas aos níveis de preços a serem oferecidos no mercado e relativas à capacidade das refinarias nacionais de competir com produtos importados. Para responder a estas e outras questões, um novo modelo de equilíbrio espacial de preços para um mercado oligopolizado foi

  13. Resale Price Maintenance and Manufacturer Competition for Exclusive Dealerships.

    OpenAIRE

    Perry, Martin K; Besanko, David

    1991-01-01

    Two manufacturers distribute their brands through exclusive retail dealers and must compete for consumers indirectly by inducing retailers to carry their brands. The authors compare equilibrium outcomes with and without resale price maintenance. Maximum resale price maintenance lowers the retail price if manufacturers cannot employ franchise fees. Minimum retail price maintenance raises the retail price if manufacturers cannot set a wholesale price above marginal cost and must employ only a f...

  14. Dynamic Relation Mechanism between Cotton Future Price and Stock Price of Related Listed Companies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The Dynamic relation mechanism between ZCE cotton futures price and related listed company stock price has been studied based on the metastock historical data in January 1st,2007 to September 1st,2010,Johansen co-integration analysis,Vector error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method.The results indicated that:long-term equilibrium relationship existed between ZCE cotton futures price and Xinsai share stock price while which changed in the same tendency and speed in the long-term.Cotton futures price is the main reason for the changing of Xinsai share stock price.The lead-lag relationship in changing course had been confirmed that existed between ZCE cotton futures price and the Xinsai share stock price.Meanwhile,the forward pass mechanism of price changing information had been found only from the ZCE cotton futures market to the stock market while showing asymmetry.Conclusions of the study can be used for cotton and related corporate to hedge business risks by the cotton price changes.

  15. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.

    2012-01-01

    We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia

  16. Analysis of competitive equilibrium in an infinite dimensional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper considered the cost of allocated goods and attaining maximal utility with such price in the finite dimensional commodity space and observed that there exist an equilibrium price. It goes further to establish that in an infinite dimensional commodity space with subsets as consumption and production set there exist a ...

  17. Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.

    2008-01-01

    We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most

  18. Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain with pricing and service decisions and simple price discount contract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Asadi, Hashem; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product's customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain.

  19. Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain with pricing and service decisions and simple price discount contract

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product’s customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain. PMID:29649315

  20. Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas; Møller Andersen, Frits; Morthorst, Poul Erik

    2016-01-01

    under scenarios with large shares of wind power in a Danish case study. Our results indicate strategies that could be favourable in ensuring high adoption of products and efficient response by households. We find that simple pricing schemes, though economically less efficient, could become important......Applying a partial equilibrium model of the electricity market we analyse effects of exposing household electricity customers to retail products with variable pricing. Both short-term and long-term effects of exposing customers to hourly spot market prices and a simpler rebate scheme are analysed...... in an early phase to initialise the development of household demand response. At a later point, when long-term dynamics take effect, a larger effort should be made to shift consumers onto real-time rates, and an increased focus on overall adoption of variable pricing will be required. Another finding...

  1. Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia's Wheat Flour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Varela, Gonzalo J.; Taniguchi, Kiyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are rob...

  2. Nonlinear road pricing for congestion and the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-30

    Under nonlinear road pricing (or tolling), the price charged is not strictly proportional to the distance travelled inside a tolling area, the generalized travel cost is not link-wise additive, and finding a user equilibrium distribution is typically...

  3. Spatial price dynamics: From complex network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y. L.; Bi, J. T.; Sun, H. J.

    2008-10-01

    The spatial price problem means that if the supply price plus the transportation cost is less than the demand price, there exists a trade. Thus, after an amount of exchange, the demand price will decrease. This process is continuous until an equilibrium state is obtained. However, how the trade network structure affects this process has received little attention. In this paper, we give a evolving model to describe the levels of spatial price on different complex network structures. The simulation results show that the network with shorter path length is sensitive to the variation of prices.

  4. Oil prices: demand and supply. Lesson plan

    OpenAIRE

    anonymous

    2005-01-01

    Upon completion of this lesson, students will be able to list the determinants of demand and supply, recognize which factors will cause demand curves or supply curves to shift, determine equilibrium using a demand/supply graph, and show the effects on price and quantity when equilibrium changes.

  5. Sudden transition from equilibrium stability to chaotic dynamics in a cautious tâtonnement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroni, Ilaria; Avellone, Alessandro; Panchuk, Anastasiia

    2015-01-01

    Tâtonnement processes are usually interpreted as auctions, where a fictitious agent sets the prices until an equilibrium is reached and the trades are made. The main purpose of such processes is to explain how an economy comes to its equilibrium. It is well known that discrete time price adjustment processes may fail to converge and may exhibit periodic or even chaotic behavior. To avoid large price changes, a version of the discrete time tâtonnement process for reaching an equilibrium in a pure exchange economy based on a cautious updating of the prices has been proposed two decades ago. This modification leads to a one dimensional bimodal piecewise smooth map, for which we show analytically that degenerate bifurcations and border collision bifurcations play a fundamental role for the asymptotic behavior of the model.

  6. Optimal public rationing and price response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassi, Simona; Ma, Ching-To Albert

    2011-12-01

    We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Higher fuel and food prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui; Maximiano, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis...... analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer-term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model...

  8. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  9. Towards equitable access to medicines for the rural poor: analyses of insurance claims reveal rural pharmacy initiative triggers price competition in Kyrgyzstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waning, Brenda; Maddix, Jason; Tripodis, Yorghos; Laing, Richard; Leufkens, Hubert Gm; Gokhale, Manjusha

    2009-12-14

    A rural pharmacy initiative (RPI) designed to increase access to medicines in rural Kyrgyzstan created a network of 12 pharmacies using a revolving drug fund mechanism in 12 villages where no pharmacies previously existed. The objective of this study was to determine if the establishment of the RPI resulted in the unforeseen benefit of triggering medicine price competition in pre-existing (non-RPI) private pharmacies located in the region. We conducted descriptive and multivariate analyses on medicine insurance claims data from Kyrgyzstan's Mandatory Health Insurance Fund for the Jumgal District of Naryn Province from October 2003 to December 2007. We compared average quarterly medicine prices in competitor pharmacies before and after the introduction of the rural pharmacy initiative in October 2004 to determine the RPI impact on price competition. Descriptive analyses suggest competitors reacted to RPI prices for 21 of 30 (70%) medicines. Competitor medicine prices from the quarter before RPI introduction to the end of the study period decreased for 17 of 30 (57%) medicines, increased for 4 of 30 (13%) medicines, and remained unchanged for 9 of 30 (30%) medicines. Among the 9 competitor medicines with unchanged prices, five initially decreased in price but later reverted back to baseline prices. Multivariate analyses on 19 medicines that met sample size criteria confirm these findings. Fourteen of these 19 (74%) competitor medicines changed significantly in price from the quarter before RPI introduction to the quarter after RPI introduction, with 9 of 19 (47%) decreasing in price and 5 of 19 (26%) increasing in price. The RPI served as a market driver, spurring competition in medicine prices in competitor pharmacies, even when they were located in different villages. Initiatives designed to increase equitable access to medicines in rural regions of developing and transitional countries should consider the potential to leverage medicine price competition as a means

  10. Towards equitable access to medicines for the rural poor: analyses of insurance claims reveal rural pharmacy initiative triggers price competition in Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leufkens Hubert GM

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A rural pharmacy initiative (RPI designed to increase access to medicines in rural Kyrgyzstan created a network of 12 pharmacies using a revolving drug fund mechanism in 12 villages where no pharmacies previously existed. The objective of this study was to determine if the establishment of the RPI resulted in the unforeseen benefit of triggering medicine price competition in pre-existing (non-RPI private pharmacies located in the region. Methods We conducted descriptive and multivariate analyses on medicine insurance claims data from Kyrgyzstan's Mandatory Health Insurance Fund for the Jumgal District of Naryn Province from October 2003 to December 2007. We compared average quarterly medicine prices in competitor pharmacies before and after the introduction of the rural pharmacy initiative in October 2004 to determine the RPI impact on price competition. Results Descriptive analyses suggest competitors reacted to RPI prices for 21 of 30 (70% medicines. Competitor medicine prices from the quarter before RPI introduction to the end of the study period decreased for 17 of 30 (57% medicines, increased for 4 of 30 (13% medicines, and remained unchanged for 9 of 30 (30% medicines. Among the 9 competitor medicines with unchanged prices, five initially decreased in price but later reverted back to baseline prices. Multivariate analyses on 19 medicines that met sample size criteria confirm these findings. Fourteen of these 19 (74% competitor medicines changed significantly in price from the quarter before RPI introduction to the quarter after RPI introduction, with 9 of 19 (47% decreasing in price and 5 of 19 (26% increasing in price. Conclusions The RPI served as a market driver, spurring competition in medicine prices in competitor pharmacies, even when they were located in different villages. Initiatives designed to increase equitable access to medicines in rural regions of developing and transitional countries should consider the

  11. Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP

    2004-01-01

    We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...

  12. Advertising, brand loyalty and pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Chioveanu, I.

    2009-01-01

    I consider an oligopoly model where, prior to price competition, firms invest in persuasive advertising and induce brand loyalty in consumers who would otherwise buy the cheapest alternative on the market. This setting, in which persuasive advertising is introduced to homogenous product markets, provides an alternative explanation for price dispersion phenomena. Despite ex-ante symmetry, the equilibrium profile of advertising outlays is asymmetric. It follows that endogenously determine...

  13. "Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Aiyagari, S.R.; Gertler, M.

    1998-01-01

    We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock...

  14. The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China—An application of a computable general equilibrium approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ji Feng; Wang, Xin; Zhang, Ya Xiong; Kou, Qin

    2014-01-01

    We use a dynamic CGE model (SICGE) to assess the economic and climate impacts of emissions trading system (ETS) in China with a carbon price of 100 Yuan/ton CO2. A particular focus is given to the regulated electricity price regime, which is a major concern of electricity sector’s cost-effective participation in ETS in China. We found: (1) Carbon pricing is an effective policy for China to reduce CO 2 emissions. Total CO 2 emissions reduction ranges from 6.8% to 11.2% in short-term. (2) Rigid electricity price entails lower CO 2 emissions reduction but can be considered as a feasible starting point to introduce carbon pricing policies in short-term as long as governmental subsidies are given to electricity production. (3) In mid- and long-term, the efficient policy is to earmark carbon revenue with competitive electricity price. We propose to use carbon revenue to reduce consumption tax in the first year of the introduction of carbon price and to use the carbon revenue to reduce production tax in following years. - Highlights: • We use a CGE model to assess the impacts of carbon pricing in China. • We test different scenarios of carbon cost pass-through in electricity price. • Carbon pricing policy cost-efficiency is examined with double-dividend hypothesis

  15. Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

    2014-01-07

    We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller's optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product's user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a "stubborn" expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice.

  16. A Linux cluster for between-pulse magnetic equilibrium reconstructions and other processor bound analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Q.; Groebner, R. J.; Lao, L. L.; Schachter, J.; Schissel, D. P.; Wade, M. R.

    2001-01-01

    A 12-processor Linux PC cluster has been installed to perform between-pulse magnetic equilibrium reconstructions during tokamak operations using the EFIT code written in FORTRAN. The MPICH package implementing message passing interface is employed by EFIT for data distribution and communication. The new system calculates equilibria eight times faster than the previous system yielding a complete equilibrium time history on a 25 ms time scale 4 min after the pulse ends. A graphical interface is provided for users to control the time resolution and the type of EFITs. The next analysis to benefit from the cluster is CERQUICK written in IDL for ion temperature profile analysis. The plan is to expand the cluster so that a full profile analysis (Te, Ti, ne, Vr, Zeff) can be made available between pulses, which lays the ground work for Kinetic EFIT and/or ONETWO power balance analyses

  17. Optimal Price Skimming by a Monopolist Facing Rational Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    David Besanko; Wayne L. Winston

    1990-01-01

    This paper considers the intertemporal pricing problem for a monopolist marketing a new product. The key feature differentiating this paper from the extant management science literature on intertemporal pricing is the assumption that consumers are intertemporal utility maximizers. A subgame perfect Nash equilibrium pricing policy is characterized and shown to involve intertemporal price discrimination. We compare this policy to the optimal policy for a monopolist facing myopic consumers and f...

  18. Policy options and their potential effects on Moroccan small farmers and the poor facing increased world food prices: A general equilibrium model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin

    2008-01-01

    "This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...

  19. Incomplete Financial Markets and Jumps in Asset Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crès, Hervé; Markeprand, Tobias Ejnar; Tvede, Mich

    A dynamic pure-exchange general equilibrium model with uncertainty is studied. Fundamentals are supposed to depend continuously on states of nature. It is shown that: 1. if financial markets are complete, then asset prices vary continuously with states of nature, and; 2. if financial markets...... are incomplete, jumps in asset prices may be unavoidable. Consequently incomplete financial markets may increase volatility in asset prices significantly....

  20. Analysing chemical equilibrium conditions when studying butyl acetate synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Álvaro Orjuela Londoño; Fernando Leiva Lenis; Luis Alejandro Boyacá Mendivelso; Gerardo Rodríguez Niño; Luis María Carballo Suárez

    2010-01-01

    This work studied the liquid phase of acetic acid and butyl alcohol esterification reaction (P atm = 560 mmHg),using an ion exchange resin (Lewatit K-2431) as catalyst. A set of assays were carried out for determining the effect of catalyst load, temperature and molar ratio (acid/alcohol) on chemical equilibrium constant. Components’ selective sorption on the resin matrix was noticed; its effect on equilibrium conditions was verified, by using different acid/alcohol starting ratios. A non-ide...

  1. Stores, Prices, and Currency Substitution

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriele, Camera; Winkler, Johannes

    1999-01-01

    We study endogenous currency substitution in a decentralized trade environment. Sellers maximize profits from sales of imperfectly substitutable goods by posting prices in either one of two currencies. A unique symmetric equilibrium exists where goods are priced only in the local currency. This occurs if foreign trade is sporadic, there is sufficient but not excessive liquidity, and discounting is low. Excess or scarcity of liquidity, however, induces sellers to extract all surplus from bu...

  2. 'Be nice, unless it pays to fight' : a new theory of price determination with implications for competition policy

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, Jan

    2002-01-01

    This paper introduces a simple extensive form pricing game where firms can react to each others’ price changes before the customers arrive. The Bertrand outcome is a Nash equilibrium outcome in this game, but it is not necessarily subgame perfect. The subgame perfect equilibrium outcome features the following comparative static properties. The more similar firms are, the higher the equilibrium price. Further, a new firm that enters the industry or an existing firm that becomes more efficient ...

  3. A new equilibrium trading model with asymmetric information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianzhang Bao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Taking arbitrage opportunities into consideration in an incomplete market, dealers will pricebonds based on asymmetric information. The dealer with the best offering price wins the bid. The riskpremium in dealer’s offering price is primarily determined by the dealer’s add-on rate of change tothe term structure. To optimize the trading strategy, a new equilibrium trading model is introduced.Optimal sequential estimation scheme for detecting the risk premium due to private inforamtion isproposed based on historical prices, and the best bond pricing formula is given with the accordingoptimal trading strategy. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the economic insights underthe certain stochastic term structure interest rate models.

  4. Price discovery in European natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, Emma; Swieringa, John

    2013-01-01

    We provide the first high-frequency investigation of price discovery within the physical and financial layers of Europe's natural gas markets. Testing not only looks at short-term return dynamics, but also considers each security's contribution to price equilibrium in the longer-term. Results show that UK natural gas futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange display greater price discovery than physical trading at various hubs throughout Europe. - Highlights: • We use intraday data to gauge price discovery in European natural gas markets. • We explore short and long-term dynamics in physical and financial market layers. • Results show ICE's UK natural gas futures are the main venue for price discovery

  5. Financial equilibrium with career concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amil Dasgupta

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available What are the equilibrium features of a financial market where a sizeable proportion of traders face reputational concerns? This question is central to our understanding of financial markets, which are increasingly dominated by institutional investors. We construct a model of delegated portfolio management that captures key features of the US mutual fund industry and embed it in an asset pricing framework. We thus provide a formal model of financial equilibrium with career concerned agents. Fund managers differ in their ability to understand market fundamentals, and in every period investors choose a fund. In equilibrium, the presence of career concerns induces uninformed fund managers to churn, i.e., to engage in trading even when they face a negative expected return. Churners act as noise traders and enhance the level of trading volume. The equilibrium relationship between fund return and net fund flows displays a skewed shape that is consistent with stylized facts. The robustness of our core results is probed from several angles.

  6. Option price and market instability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  7. On pure-strategy Nash equilibria in price-quantity games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, I.; Vermeulen, A.J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the existence and characteristics of pure-strategy Nash equilibria in oligopoly models in which firms set both prices and quantities. Existence is proved for a broad and natural class of price-quantity games. With differentiated products, the equilibrium outcome is similar to

  8. Price Discovery Function of Index Futures in China: Evidence from Daily Closing Prices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIQING; XIE; JIAJUN; HUANG

    2013-01-01

    Price discovery is one of the main functions of stock index futures.Using the daily closing prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures from April 2010 to April 2012,this paper applies a vector error correction model(VECM)and an impulse response function to conduct an empirical analysis on the price discovery function of index futures in China.This paper has the following four findings:(1)a solid cointegration relationship between the CSI 300 index and its index futures exists in the long run;(2)when prices deviate from the longterm equilibrium,the stock index reverses weakly,while the reversal of index futures is much stronger;(3)the daily lead-lag relationship between the prices of the CSI 300 index and its index futures contracts is not significant in the short run;()shocks from the spot market have a lasting impact upon the futures market,but not vice versa,due to the limited short-term adjustment ability of the spot market.

  9. Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Lu Zou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

  10. Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Qiang; Geng, Jiang-Bo; Fan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of global economic activity and international crude oil prices on natural gas import prices in three major natural gas markets using the panel cointegration model. It also investigates the shock impacts of the volatility and the increase and decrease of oil prices on regional natural gas import prices. The results show that both global economic activity and international crude oil prices have significant long-term positive effects on regional natural gas import prices. The volatility of international crude oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas import prices. The shock impact is weak in North America, lags in Europe and is most significant in Asia, which is mainly determined by different regional policies for price formation. In addition, the response of natural gas import prices to increases and decreases in international crude oil prices shows an asymmetrical mechanism, of which the decrease impact is relatively stronger. - Highlights: • Impacts of world economy and oil prices on regional natural gas prices are analysed • North American natural gas prices are mainly affected by world economy • Asian and European natural gas prices are mainly affected by oil prices • The volatility of oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas prices • The response of natural gas import prices to oil prices up and down shows asymmetry

  11. Intertemporal competitive equilibrium: a reappraisal of a basic source of instability

    OpenAIRE

    Sergio, Parrinello

    2004-01-01

    Abstract This paper resumes a source of instability of intertemporal equilibrium which was anticipated by Garegnani (2003) and criticized by Schefold (2004). The author points out that a non orthodox tâtonnement pricing must be accepted if the theory has to be consistent with the Jevons’s law of unique price. Such tâtonnement prescribes that the rule for adjusting the relative prices of commodities available at different times is different from the rule applied to the relative prices of...

  12. Bid Regulations in a Multi-unit Uniform Price Auction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette

    for larger rms does not guarantee market prices below that cap. A suffciently high bid floor only for smaller firms destroys some or all pure strategy equilibria despite their prices being above the bid floor. With a general bid floor this happens only with considerably higher bid floors.......This paper examines the effect of bid regulations on the range of potential equilibrium prices in a multi-unit uniform price auction with heterogenous bidders. General bid caps destroy equilibria with prices above the bid cap and create new equilibria with prices way below the cap. A cap only...

  13. Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waisman, Henri; Rozenberg, Julie; Sassi, Olivier; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2012-01-01

    This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households’ welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs. - Highlights: ► Geological determinants behind Hubbert curves in a general equilibrium framework. ► We endogenize the interactions between Peak Oil dates, oil prices and growth trends. ► Close Peak Oil dates lead to different trends of oil prices, exportation and growth. ► Low short-term prices benefit to the long-term macroeconomy of oil exporters. ► High short-term prices hedge oil importers against economic tensions after Peak Oil.

  14. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  15. Financial Constraints and Nominal Price Rigidities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menno, Dominik Francesco; Balleer, Almut; Hristov, Nikolay

    This paper investigates how financial market imperfections and the frequency of price adjustment interact. Based on new firm-level evidence for Germany, we document that financially constrained firms adjust prices more often than their unconstrained counterparts, both upwards and downwards. We show...... that these empirical patterns are consistent with a partial equilibrium menu-cost model with a working capital constraint. We then use the model to show how the presence of financial frictions changes profits and the price distribution of firms compared to a model without financial frictions. Our results suggest...... that tighter financial constraints are associated with higher nominal rigidities, higher prices and lower output. Moreover, in response to aggregate shocks, aggregate price rigidity moves substantially, the response of inflation is dampened, while output reacts more in the presence of financial frictions...

  16. Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aromi, J. Daniel

    Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.

  17. The study of the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei Jiang; Pupu Luan; Chunpeng Yang

    2014-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence.Design/methodology/approach-This paper divides the traders of gold futures market into two kinds:the speculators and arbitrageurs,and then constructs a market equilibrium model of futures pricing to analyze the behaviors of the two kinds of traders with overconfidence.After getting the decision-making function,the market equilibrium futures price is attained on the condition of market clearing.Then,this paper analyzes how the overconfidence impacts on futures price,volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility.Findings-Under different market conditions,the overconfidence psychological impacts of heterogeneous investor on the price and volatility of futures are different,sometimes completely opposite.Originality/value-In the past literature,the relationships between overconfidence and the price or volatility are positive;however,the study shows that sometimes it is positive,and sometimes it is negative

  18. Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas...

  19. Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2003-01-01

    The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

  20. Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brink, Corjan; Vollebergh, Herman R.J.; Werf, Edwin van der

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies various options to support allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as adjusting the cap, an auction reserve price, and fixed and variable carbon taxes in addition to the EU ETS. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that explicitly allows for allowance banking and for a detailed cost-effectiveness analysis at the EU Member State level. We find that tightening the cap provides an ad hoc solution to the fundamental issue of the robustness of the effective carbon price, while introducing a price component to the ETS brings structural carbon price support in times of negative demand shocks for emission allowances. These price-based policies still benefit from the intertemporal flexibility through the banking provision in the EU ETS by re-allocating emissions over time with stronger emission reductions in early years and emission increases in later years. A higher emission price has a larger negative impact on the new Member States' economies than on other Member States. Furthermore, introducing a carbon tax in addition to the EU ETS decreases the price of allowances, resulting in welfare gains for net buyers of allowances while net sellers are worse off. - Highlights: • We analyse reform options for European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) with a CGE model. • Variable carbon tax and auction reserve price support carbon price at least cost. • Price-based reforms decrease early emissions but increase later emissions through banking. • New Member States' economies are affected more than others by higher CO_2 prices. • Lower allowance prices due to a carbon tax are unfavourable to net sellers of allowances.

  1. Oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

    2007-01-01

    Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

  2. Prices and heterogeneous search costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luis Moraga-Gonzalez, Jose; Sandor, Zsolt; Wildenbeest, Matthijs R.

    2017-01-01

    We study price formation in a model of consumer search for differentiated products in which consumers have heterogeneous search costs. We provide conditions under which a pure-strategy symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and is unique. Search costs affect two margins-the intensive search margin (or

  3. Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

    OpenAIRE

    Hilde Bjørnland

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium is an important issue for policy makers. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. By imposing long-run restrictions on a VAR model for Venezuela, four structural shocks are identified: Nominal demand, real demand, supply and oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are c...

  4. Exhaustible natural resources, normal prices and intertemporal equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Parrinello, Sergio

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes an extension of the classical theory of normal prices to an n-commodity economy with exhaustible natural resources. The central idea is developed by two analytical steps. Firstly, it is assumed that a given flow of an exhaustible resource in short supply is combined with the coexistence of two methods of production using that resource. Sraffa’s equations are reinterpreted by adopting the concept of effectual supply of natural resources and avoiding the assumption of perfec...

  5. [Relevance of pharmacoeconomic analyses to price and reimbursement decisions in Austria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Führlinger, Susanne

    2006-12-01

    Since the social sick funds have only limited amounts of money at their disposal, whereas the pharmaceutical market is constantly growing, thorough evaluations have to be undertaken how contributions are to be spent to get adequate value for money and especially to gain utmost benefit for the patients. When deciding on whether a pharmaceutical is listed in the Code of Reimbursement or not, pharmacoeconomic studies are obligatory in two cases: for real innovations with substantial therapeutic benefit and for applications for inclusion in the Yellow Box, when there are no alternatives listed in the Yellow Box. On the basis of the pharmacoeconomic study a comprehensible and justifiable cost/use relation of the pharmaceutical applied for should be proven in comparison with therapeutic alternatives in Austria. However, a pharmacoeconomic study is always only one aspect among others deciding on reimbursement and price. Even though the pharmaceutical applied for is not included in the Code of Reimbursement, reimbursement is possible in special cases if there is no adequate pharmaceutical listed in the Code of Reimbursement and the pharmaceutical is absolutely needed for therapeutic reasons. In these cases prior approval from a chief medical officer is required. Pharmacoeconomic studies for the purpose of section sign 25 of the Rules of Procedure for publishing the Code of Reimbursement (VO-EKO) must meet the following requirements: From a methodical point of view both cost-effectiveness analyses and--in justified cases--cost-utility analyses may be used. Due to required accuracy and traceability incremental analyses are preferred. Medical and economic data underlying the pharmacoeconomic study have to show a high degree of validity and evidence. The perspective to be taken is that of the Austrian Health Insurance. When determining the therapeutic alternatives, the most frequent indication, the most purposeful medical dosage and the main group of affected patients have to

  6. Assessing the value of price caps and floors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    This publication assesses the long-term economic and climatic effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical global climate change mitigation policy. Based on emission trends, abatement costs and equilibrium climate sensitivity from IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms that price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. Furthermore,this analysis shows that rigid targets may entail greater economic risks with little or no comparative advantage for the climate. More ambitious emission objectives, combined with price caps and price floors, could still entail significantly lower expected costs while driving similar, or even slightly better, climatic outcomes in probabilistic terms.

  7. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  8. The Fisher Market Game: Equilibrium and Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Branzei, Simina; Chen, Yiling; Deng, Xiaotie

    2014-01-01

    The Fisher market model is one of the most fundamental resource allocation models in economics. In a Fisher market, the prices and allocations of goods are determined according to the preferences and budgets of buyers to clear the market. In a Fisher market game, however, buyers are strategic...... and report their preferences over goods; the market-clearing prices and allocations are then determined based on their reported preferences rather than their real preferences. We show that the Fisher market game always has a pure Nash equilibrium, for buyers with linear, Leontief, and Cobb-Douglas utility...

  9. Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Robert G.

    2013-01-01

    Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

  10. The impacts of price responsiveness on strategic equilibrium in competitive electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bompard, Ettore; Ma, Yuchao; Napoli, Roberto [Department of Electrical Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, C.so Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy); Abrate, Graziano; Ragazzi, Elena [Ceris-CNR, Via Real Collegio, 30, 10024 Moncalieri (Italy)

    2007-06-15

    One of the most important aspects that may affect market welfare is that related to the low demand responsiveness to price. This situation may greatly impact the market performance causing low efficiency, high prices and a disproportional allocation of surpluses. The structure of electricity markets is usually oligopolistic; producers may bid prices higher than their marginal costs to the short run wholesale market, inducing outcome deviations from the perfect competitive benchmark. The possibility of gaming the market is amplified in the presence of low demand responsiveness to price. This paper proposes a model to assess the role of demand elasticity in mitigating the effects of supply side strategic bidding behavior. We model the supply side in a conjectural supply function (CSF) framework, which allows incorporation of exogenous changes in demand elasticity and different levels of competition in a given market. The impacts of demand responsiveness on the market performances are assessed through a set of proposed indices that are applied to a model of the Italian market. (author)

  11. The impacts of price responsiveness on strategic equilibrium in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bompard, Ettore; Ma, Yuchao; Napoli, Roberto; Abrate, Graziano; Ragazzi, Elena

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important aspects that may affect market welfare is that related to the low demand responsiveness to price. This situation may greatly impact the market performance causing low efficiency, high prices and a disproportional allocation of surpluses. The structure of electricity markets is usually oligopolistic; producers may bid prices higher than their marginal costs to the short run wholesale market, inducing outcome deviations from the perfect competitive benchmark. The possibility of gaming the market is amplified in the presence of low demand responsiveness to price. This paper proposes a model to assess the role of demand elasticity in mitigating the effects of supply side strategic bidding behavior. We model the supply side in a conjectural supply function (CSF) framework, which allows incorporation of exogenous changes in demand elasticity and different levels of competition in a given market. The impacts of demand responsiveness on the market performances are assessed through a set of proposed indices that are applied to a model of the Italian market. (author)

  12. Risk neutral second best toll pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    We propose a risk-neutral second best toll pricing scheme to account for the possible no uniqueness : of user equilibrium solutions. The scheme is designed to optimize for the expected objective value : as the UE solution varies within the solution s...

  13. Dividend taxation in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Ngoc-Sang

    2017-01-01

    We consider an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and financial market imperfections. We investigate the role of dividend taxation on economic growth and asset price. The optimal dividend taxation is also studied.

  14. Non-Life Insurance Pricing: Multi Agents Model

    OpenAIRE

    Amir H. Darooneh

    2004-01-01

    We use the maximum entropy principle for pricing the non-life insurance and recover the B\\"{u}hlmann results for the economic premium principle. The concept of economic equilibrium is revised in this respect.

  15. Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis C. Tai

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1 compiling reported prices explicitly listed as “for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil” to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2 including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3 increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all end-products. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

  16. Carbon prices for the next thousand years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerlagh, Reyer [Tilburg Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Economics; Liski, Matti [Aalto Univ., Helsinki (Finland). School of Economics

    2012-06-15

    Climate is a persistent asset, bar none: changes in climate-related stocks have consequences spanning over centuries or possibly millennia to the future. To reconcile the discounting of such far-distant impacts and realism of the shorter-term decisions, we consider hyperbolic time-preferences in a climate-economy model. Time-changing utility discount rates have unexplored general-equilibrium effects: carbon prices exceed the pure carbon externality costs - the Pigouvian tax level - by multiple factors in our quantitative assessment. The climateeconomy model is rich in details but can be solved in closed-form yielding Markov carbon prices dependent on climate system parameters, damage estimates, technology parameters, and both short- and long-term time preferences. The equilibrium time discount rate is endogenous, and it can justify high carbon taxes as advocated by Stern while maintaining the realism of the macroeconomic outcome, thus providing a solution for the dilemma centering the carbon tax-discount rate debate. The welfare ranking of the policy alternatives is unambiguous: enforcing the Pigouvian tax decreases a consistently-defined welfare measure vis-a-vis the Markov equilibrium.

  17. An Econometric Analysis of Brand Level Strategic Pricing Between Coca Cola and Pepsi Inc.

    OpenAIRE

    Tirtha Pratim Dhar; Jean-Paul Chavas; Ronald W. Cotterill; Brian W. Gould

    2002-01-01

    Market structure and strategic pricing for leading brands sold by Coca Cola and Pepsi Inc. are investigated in the context of a flexible demand specification and structural price equations. This approach is more general than prior studies that rely upon linear approximations and interactions of an inherently nonlinear problem. We test for Bertrand equilibrium, Stackelberg equilibrium, collusion, and a general conjectural variation (CV) specification. This nonlinear Full Information Maximum Li...

  18. Why is the oil price not about equilibrium?: An economic sociology account of petroleum markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyi, Andrei V.

    2016-01-01

    This opinion paper seeks to initiate discussion of the institutional and societal causes of oil price. On this basis, the social embeddedness concept is proposed instead of the frequently used producer-consumer juxtaposition. Observation shows no linearity between resource distribution imbalances and supply dynamics on the one hand and price on the other. As a socially endogenous factor, oil price generates practices and norms comprising benchmarks for resource valuation, stock market dynamics and risk aversion practices. A high oil price incentivises investments and inter-fuel competition, whereas a low oil price increases both political and market risks beyond the consumer-producer conceptualisation. Hence, it is argued that the notion of oil price affordability in energy security should be revised. - Highlights: •Oil price is not about affordability but about social embeddedness processes. •Producer-Consumer juxtaposition stems from resource-determinism concept. •Elevated oil price postpones peak oil and favors inter-fuel competition. •Important symbolisms surrounding the oil price exists in terms of business perspectives and political risk aversion.

  19. Viewpoint On the Climate Change Effects of High Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielle, M.; Viguier, L.

    2005-11-01

    Some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations. The fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies.

  20. Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Andrew W.; Mamaysky, Harry; Wang, Jiang

    2004-01-01

    We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume when agents face fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy. The inability to trade more frequently reduces the agents' asset demand and in equilibrium gives rise to a…

  1. Three essays on access pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydee, Ahmed Nasim

    In the first essay, a theoretical model is developed to determine the time path of optimal access price in the telecommunications industry. Determining the optimal access price is an important issue in the economics of telecommunications. Setting a high access price discourages potential entrants; a low access price, on the other hand, amounts to confiscation of private property because the infrastructure already built by the incumbent is sunk. Furthermore, a low access price does not give the incumbent incentives to maintain the current network and to invest in new infrastructures. Much of the existing literature on access pricing suffers either from the limitations of a static framework or from the assumption that all costs are avoidable. The telecommunications industry is subject to high stranded costs and, therefore, to address this issue a dynamic model is imperative. This essay presents a dynamic model of one-way access pricing in which the compensation involved in deregulatory taking is formalized and then analyzed. The short run adjustment after deregulatory taking has occurred is carried out and discussed. The long run equilibrium is also analyzed. A time path for the Ramsey price is shown as the correct dynamic price of access. In the second essay, a theoretical model is developed to determine the time path of optimal access price for an infrastructure that is characterized by congestion and lumpy investment. Much of the theoretical literature on access pricing of infrastructure prescribes that the access price be set at the marginal cost of the infrastructure. In proposing this rule of access pricing, the conventional analysis assumes that infrastructure investments are infinitely divisible so that it makes sense to talk about the marginal cost of investment. Often it is the case that investments in infrastructure are lumpy and can only be made in large chunks, and this renders the marginal cost concept meaningless. In this essay, we formalize a model of

  2. Endogeneous price leadership in a duopoly: equal products, unequal technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dastidar, K.G.; Furth, D.

    2005-01-01

    In the present paper we study endogenous price leadership in the context of a homogeneous product Bertrand duopoly model in which the firms have different, strictly convex cost functions. In such a framework it is well known that a simultaneous move price choice game does not have an equilibrium in

  3. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  4. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2006-06-01

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  5. An analysis of security price risk and return among publicly traded pharmacy corporations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, Adrienne M; Skrepnek, Grant H

    2013-01-01

    Community pharmacies have been subject to intense and increasing competition in the past several decades. To determine the security price risk and rate of return of publicly traded pharmacy corporations present on the major U.S. stock exchanges from 1930 to 2009. The Center of Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was used to examine monthly security-level stock market prices in this observational retrospective study. The primary outcome of interest was the equity risk premium, with analyses focusing upon financial metrics associated with risk and return based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT) including: abnormal returns (i.e., alpha), volatility (i.e., beta), and percentage of returns explained (i.e., adjusted R(2)). Three equilibrium models were estimated using random-effects generalized least squares (GLS): 1) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); 2) Fama-French Three-Factor Model; and 3) Carhart Four-Factor Model. Seventy-five companies were examined from 1930 to 2009, with overall adjusted R(2) values ranging from 0.13 with the CAPM to 0.16 with the Four-Factor model. Alpha was not significant within any of the equilibrium models across the entire 80-year time period, though was found from 1999 to 2009 in the Three- and Four-Factor models to be associated with a large, significant, and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns of -33.84%. Volatility varied across specific time periods based upon the financial model employed. This investigation of risk and return within publicly listed pharmacy corporations from 1930 to 2009 found that substantial losses were incurred particularly from 1999 to 2009, with risk-adjusted security valuations decreasing by one-third. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Endogenous versus exogenous generic reference pricing for pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoñanzas, F; Juárez-Castelló, C A; Rodríguez-Ibeas, R

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we carry out a vertical differentiation duopoly model applied to pharmaceutical markets to analyze how endogenous and exogenous generic reference pricing influence competition between generic and branded drugs producers. Unlike the literature, we characterize for the exogenous case the equilibrium prices for all feasible relevant reference prices. Competition is enhanced after the introduction of a reference pricing system. We also compare both reference pricing systems on welfare grounds, assuming two different objective functions for health authorities: (i) standard social welfare and (ii) gross consumer surplus net of total pharmaceutical expenditures. We show that regardless of the objective function, health authorities will never choose endogenous reference pricing. When health authorities are paternalistic, the exogenous reference price that maximizes standard social welfare is such that the price of the generic drug is the reference price while the price of the branded drug is higher than the reference price. When health authorities are not paternalistic, the optimal exogenous reference price is such that the price of the branded drug is the reference price while the price of the generic drug is lower than the reference price.

  7. Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsan, Serhiy

    2005-07-01

    A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to

  8. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar NAIK

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

  9. On the equivalence of buyer and seller proposals within canonical matching and pricing environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kennes, John; le Maire, Daniel

    This paper considers equilibrium proposals by either buyers or sellers in the canonical ‘urnball’ matching market. The proposals can either be posted prices announced by buyers; posted prices announced by sellers; or announcements by sellers (or by buyers) to entertain price proposals, as in auct...

  10. Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bejger Sylwester

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.

  11. The Spectrum Sharing in Cognitive Radio Networks Based on Competitive Price Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. B. Li

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The competitive price game model is used to analyze the spectrum sharing problem in the cognitive radio networks, and the spectrum sharing problem with the constraints of available spectrum resource from primary users is further discussed in this paper. The Rockafeller multiplier method is applied to deal with the constraints of available licensed spectrum resource, and the improved profits function is achieved, which can be used to measure the impact of shared spectrum price strategies on the system profit. However, in the competitive spectrum sharing problem of practical cognitive radio network, primary users have to determine price of the shared spectrum without the acknowledgement of the other primary user’s price strategies. Thus a fast gradient iterative calculation method of equilibrium price is proposed, only with acknowledgement of the price strategies of shared spectrum during last cycle. Through the adaptive iteration at the direction with largest gradient of improved profit function, the equilibrium price strategies can be achieved rapidly. It can also avoid the predefinition of adjustment factor according to the parameters of communication system in conventional linear iteration method. Simulation results show that the proposed competitive price spectrum sharing model can be applied in the cognitive radio networks with constraints of available licensed spectrum, and it has better convergence performance.

  12. Stochastic arbitrage return and its implications for option pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random proces...

  13. COSTA RICAN MEAT VALUE CHAIN DESCRIPTION: PRICE TRANSMISSION AS A TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Rodríguez Lizano

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Price transmission analysis is an increasing research topic, especially for price taking countries such as Costa Rica. We describe the beef supply chain and provide a numerical implementation of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM of price transmission for the meat market in order to observe the relationship between import prices of meat and their effects on national retail prices. To restore equilibrium, retail prices correct 8% of the error term monthly. Since the meat imports market of Costa Rica is complex, the analysis of others business partners as Nicaragua should be included in order to compare the influence of these in local retail prices

  14. Economic Equilibrium and Soviet Economic Reform

    OpenAIRE

    Herbert E. Scarf

    1991-01-01

    The paper, prepared for a Roundtable on Major Economic Problems in the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., discusses some aspects of price theory ñ in particular, the theory of general equilibrium -ñ which may offer some theoretical insights about the economic problems to be encountered during the transition from Socialism to private markets in the Soviet Union.

  15. Regional Mc parity: do common pricing points reduce deviations from the law of one price?

    OpenAIRE

    Mathä, Thomas Y.

    2009-01-01

    Abstract This paper analyses price differences of McDonald?s products in four different countries. I show that pricing at pricing points in different currencies may contribute to explaining deviations from the law of one price. Observing strictly equal prices is more probable if prices are set at psychological and fractional pricing points in a common currency. The latter is also found to reduce the size of price deviations. Additionally, price differences increase as transaction c...

  16. Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference. Evidence from the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marckhoff, Jan; Wimschulte, Jens

    2009-01-01

    In electricity markets, not only does the risk of substantial price variations over time exist, but so does the risk of price variations over space, as prices between locations can differ due to transmission congestion. To manage this risk, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), i.e., forwards on the spread between a particular area price and the (unconstrained) system price, were introduced at the Scandinavian electricity exchange Nord Pool at the end of 2000. We empirically investigate the pricing of these CfDs over the period 2001 through 2006 and find that CfD prices contain significant risk premia. Their sign and magnitude, however, differ substantially between areas and delivery periods, because areas are subject to transmission congestion to a varying extent. While the relation between risk premia and time-to-maturity is not uniform for CfDs, there is a negative relation for implied area and system forwards, which can be explained by the relative hedging demand of market participants. In addition, we find that risk premia of CfDs and implied area forwards vary systematically with the variance and skewness of the underlying spot prices. This confirms both implications of the Bessembinder and Lemmon [Bessembinder, H., Lemmon, M.L., 2002. Equilibrium pricing and optimal hedging in electricity forward markets. Journal of Finance, 57, 1347-1382] model. (author)

  17. Orphan Drug Pricing: An Original Exponential Model Relating Price to the Number of Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Messori

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In managing drug prices at the national level, orphan drugs represent a special case because the price of these agents is higher than that determined according to value-based principles. A common practice is to set the orphan drug price in an inverse relationship with the number of patients, so that the price increases as the number of patients decreases. Determination of prices in this context generally has a purely empirical nature, but a theoretical basis would be needed. The present paper describes an original exponential model that manages the relationship between price and number of patients for orphan drugs. Three real examples are analysed in detail (eculizumab, bosentan, and a data set of 17 orphan drugs published in 2010. These analyses have been aimed at identifying some objective criteria to rationally inform this relationship between prices and patients and at converting these criteria into explicit quantitative rules.

  18. Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Michael B. Devereux; Charles Engel

    2001-01-01

    Many papers in the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics make different assumptions about the currency in which firms set their export prices when nominal prices must be pre-set. But to date, all of these studies take the currency of price setting as exogenous. This paper sets up a simple two-country general equilibrium model in which exporting firms can choose the currency in which they set prices for sales to foreign markets. We make two alternative assumptions about the structur...

  19. The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices of Swiss Real Estate Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Ligocká

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock values of companies listed on stock exchanges could be influenced by many factors. The aim of this article is to examine existence and character of relationship between stock prices of selected Swiss real estate companies and macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest rate, price level. The existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals is tested with the Johansen cointegration. The short run dynamics between the variables is examined by Vector Error Correction modelling and the Granger causality test. During the period 2005 – 2014 we revealed a long‑run equilibrium for five of the six analyzed stocks. We also confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the interest rate in particular, can explain a long-run behavior of stock prices. By contrast, macroeconomic variables are usually short in explanation of short‑run dynamics of stock prices. However, the results differ substantially among the stocks and, hence, they prevent us from drawing any general conclusion for the entire real estate sector in Switzerland.

  20. Flex cars and the alcohol price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, Alex Luiz; Da Silveira, Jaylson Jair; De Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard

    2009-01-01

    We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative 'flex' car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (author)

  1. Price dynamics in European petroleum markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wlazlowski, Szymon; Giulietti, Monica; Binner, Jane; Milas, Costas

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses horizontal and vertical price dynamics in the EU petroleum markets. The results indicate that the cross-country price differentials have significant impact on the local price adjustments. We investigate the cross-national price spill-overs and find that the extent of the welfare transfer due to asymmetric price transmission, when analysed in a cross-country setting, is less pronounced than claimed in previous contributions in this area. We also find empirical evidence, although indirect, for the politically charged concept of 'fuel tourism', using a pan-European cross-product time series dataset. (author)

  2. The composite barrel of retail prices and its relationship to crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper challenges assumptions about the relationship between refinery gate prices, retail prices paid by consumers and crude oil prices. The analysis presented here considers their relationship within the context of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) composite barrel statistics, which includes taxes and other government policy effects on prices. Speed of adjustment and retail price response to taxes are analysed with respect to crude import prices. OPEC's composite barrel is explained and evaluated. Test results are summarized. (UK)

  3. Dutch house price fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haffner, M.E.A.; de Vries, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses house price developments in the Netherlands, specifically focussing on the question whether current house prices in the Dutch owner-occupied market are likely to decrease. We analyse three aspects of the question based on a literature review: (1) whether there is a house price

  4. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P

    We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)

  5. Inflation and House Prices: Theory and Evidence from 35 Major Cities in China

    OpenAIRE

    Weida Kuang; Peng Liu

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, housing prices and inflation have been growing constantly in China. Higher house prices and higher inflation affect both household consumption and economic growth. We have developed a four-sector general equilibrium model of consumers, developers, firms, and the central bank to illustrate the relationship of house prices with inflation. The theoretical model demonstrates that house prices and inflation are positively correlated and endogenously determined. By using panel data...

  6. Drug Pricing Reforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...... for patients and the health insurance system. We also estimated an increase in consumer welfare but the size effect depends on whether or not perceived quality differences between branded and other drugs are taken into account....

  7. Strategic Generation with Conjectured Transmission Price Responses in a Mixed Transmission Pricing System. Part 1. Formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobbs, B.F.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    2004-05-01

    The conjectured supply function (CSF) model calculates an oligopolistic equilibrium among competing generating companies (GenCos), presuming that GenCos anticipate that rival firms will react to price increases by expanding their sales at an assumed rate. The CSF model is generalized here to include each generator's conjectures concerning how the price of transmission services (point-to-point service and constrained interfaces) will be affected by the amount of those services that the generator demands. This generalization reflects the market reality that large producers will anticipate that they can favorably affect transmission prices by their actions. The model simulates oligopolistic competition among generators while simultaneously representing a mixed transmission pricing system. This mixed system includes fixed transmission tariffs, congestion-based pricing of physical transmission constraints (represented as a linearized dc load flow), and auctions of interface capacity in a path-based pricing system. Pricing inefficiencies, such as export fees and no credit for counterflows, can be simulated. The model is formulated as a linear mixed complementarity problem, which enables very large market models to be solved. In the second paper of this two-paper series, the capabilities of the model are illustrated with an application to northwest Europe, where transmission pricing is based on such a mixture of approaches

  8. Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar Sana, Shib

    2012-03-01

    Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

  9. CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for the price of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.

    2005-09-01

    The present study analyses the relationship between EU emissions trading and power prices, notably the implications of free allocation of emissions allowances for the price of electricity in countries of North-western Europe. To study this impact, it uses a variety of analytical approaches, including interviews with stakeholders, empirical and statistical analyses, theoretical explorations, and analyses by means of the COMPETES model. The study shows that a significant part of the costs of freely allocated allowances is passed through to power price and discusses its implications in terms of higher electricity prices for consumers and windfall profits for producers. It concludes that free allocation of emission allowances is a highly questionable policy option for a variety of reasons and suggests that auctioning might offer a better perspective

  10. Ordered phase and non-equilibrium fluctuation in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2002-08-01

    We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin interactions as in spin glass models of disordered magnetic systems. Through the analysis of Dow-Jones industrial portfolio consisting of 30 stock issues by this model, we find a non-equilibrium fluctuation mode on the point slightly below the boundary between ordered and disordered phases. The remaining 29 modes are still in disordered phase and well described by Gibbs distribution. The variance of the fluctuation is outlined by the theoretical curve and peculiarly large in the non-equilibrium mode compared with those in the other modes remaining in ordinary phase.

  11. Price-Quantity Competition under Strategic Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kopányi, D.

    2014-01-01

    We consider the market for a homogeneous good in which two firms simultaneously decide on both the price and the production level of the good. Firms have mean-variance preferences and they hold probabilistic conjectures about the actions of the other firm. We show that a pure-strategy equilibrium

  12. Electricity prices and fuel costs. Long-run relations and short-run dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan

    2009-01-01

    The paper examines the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between electricity prices and three fossil fuel prices - coal, natural gas and crude oil - using annual data for the U.S. for 1960-2007. The results suggest (1) a stable long-run relation between real prices for electricity and coal (2) Bi-directional long-run causality between coal and electricity prices. (3) Insignificant long-run relations between electricity and crude oil and/or natural gas prices. And (4) no evidence of asymmetries in the adjustment of electricity prices to deviations from equilibrium. A number of implications are addressed. (author)

  13. Currency Substitution and The Law of One Price

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriele Camera; Johannes Winkler

    2000-01-01

    We study endogenous currency substitution in a decentralized trade environment. Sellers maximize profits from sales of imperfectly substitutable goods by posting prices in either one of two currencies. A unique symmetric equilibrium exists where goods are priced only in the local currency. This occurs if foreign trade is sporadic, there is sufficient but not excessive liquidity, and discounting is low. Excess or scarcity of liquidity, however, induces sellers to extract all surplus from buyer...

  14. Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility “smile” can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.

  15. Learning monopolies with delayed feedback on price expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

    2015-11-01

    We call the intercept of the price function with the vertical axis the maximum price and the slope of the price function the marginal price. In this paper it is assumed that a monopolistic firm has full information about the marginal price and its own cost function but is uncertain on the maximum price. However, by repeated interaction with the market, the obtained price observations give a basis for an adaptive learning process of the maximum price. It is also assumed that the price observations have fixed delays, so the learning process can be described by a delayed differential equation. In the cases of one or two delays, the asymptotic behavior of the resulting dynamic process is examined, stability conditions are derived. Three main results are demonstrated in the two delay learning processes. First, it is possible to stabilize the equilibrium which is unstable in the one delay model. Second, complex dynamics involving chaos, which is impossible in the one delay model, can emerge. Third, alternations of stability and instability (i.e., stability switches) occur repeatedly.

  16. Output Price Risk, Material Input Price Risk, and Price Margins: Evidence from the US Catfish Industry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bouras

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - To develop a conceptual model for analyzing the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins. Design/methodology/approach - To analyze the combined effect of output price risk and material input risk on price margins, we use a series of comparative static analyses, GARCH models, and data ranging from 1990/01 to 2012/12. Findings - The theoretical results indicate that the impact of output price risk and the impact of material input price risk on price margins are ambiguous and, to a great extent, hinge on the correlation between output price and material input price. The empirical results show that whole frozen catfish price risk and live catfish price risk negatively affect the price margin for frozen catfish. The empirical results, however, indicate that the risk of the price of live catfish affects markedly the price margin for frozen whole catfish in contrast to the impact of the risk of the price of frozen whole catfish. Research implications/limitations - The empirical results have significant implications for managerial decision-making especially when crafting strategies for improving price margins. Accordingly, in order to beef up the price margin for frozen whole catfish, catfish processors may consider engaging in vertical integration. This paper has some limitations: first, it assumes that firms operate in competitive markets; second, it assumes that firms produce and sell a single product. Originality/value/contribution - Unlike earlier studies that focused solely on the effect of output price risk on price margins, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins.

  17. Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2005-06-01

    How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. The appendix volume of the project report contains detailed descriptions of the three models that are used: the Balmorel model, the investment model, and the MARS model. The Balmorel model is a partial equilibrium model that describes a coherent, international electric power system and combined heat and power system. The model was developed in 2000 through international co-operation with the aim to have a model for analysing international aspects in the Baltic area. The investment model analyses and models the investment decisions in a liberalized Nordic electric power market. It is an exogenous model constructed outside the Balmorel model but uses the price pictures from the Balmorel model as input. MARS (MARket Simulation) is Eltra's (a Danish electric power transmission company) market model for simulating prices, production, demand and exchanges in the power market. The model covers the Nordic countries (Nord Pool) and Northern Germany. (LN)

  18. THE EFFECTS OF SWINGS IN GLOBAL WHEAT PRICES ON THE DOMESTIC MARKETS IN AFGHANISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najibullah Hassanzoy

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent shocks in global prices of cereals and the spillover effects of trade restrictive policies adversely affected domestic markets, particularly in the net food importing countries such as Afghanistan. This paper investigates the effects of 2007–2008 spikes in global wheat prices on the dynamics of price transmission and long-run equilibrium relationship between global and domestic wheat markets. The findings indicate that domestic and global wheat markets may be cointegrated in Regime-I (pre-break, Regime-II (post-break and the overall sample period. Moreover, the elasticity of price transmission and speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium are substantially different between the two regimes, i.e., they appear to be larger in Regime-I as compared to Regime-II. Similarly, the effect of a shock in global wheat prices on domestic wheat markets might be long-lasting in Regime-I but transitory in Regime-II. This research underlines the need for mitigating the adverse effect of spikes in global wheat prices on domestic wheat markets in the context of a landlocked net food importing country.

  19. Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Hetland

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

  20. Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1,  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1.  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price

  1. Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

  2. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a duopoly market pricing competition and cooperation under the carbon emissions cap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Ming; He, Hua; Ma, Changsong; Wu, Yan; Yang, Hao

    2017-05-17

    This article studies the price competition and cooperation in a duopoly that is subjected to carbon emissions cap. The study assumes that in a departure from the classical Bertrand game, there is still a market for both firms' goods regardless of the product price, even though production capacity is limited by carbon emissions regulation. Through the decentralized decision making of both firms under perfect information, the results are unstable. The firm with the lower maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation and the firm with the higher maximum production capacity both seek market price cooperation. By designing an internal carbon credits trading mechanism, we can ensure that the production capacity of the firm with the higher maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation reaches price equilibrium. Also, the negotiation power of the duopoly would affect the price equilibrium.

  3. Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinfeng Ruan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.

  4. Assessing Tuition and Student Aid Strategies: Using Price-Response Measures to Simulate Pricing Alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. John, Edward P.

    1994-01-01

    A study used price-response measures from recent national studies to assess college and university pricing (tuition and student aid) alternatives in diverse institutional settings. It is concluded that such analyses are feasible. Analysis indicated limits to "Robin Hood" pricing patterns are predominant in private colleges. Consideration…

  5. Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena; Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda; Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya

    2008-01-01

    The behavior of commodities prices is fundamental to real-asset investment decisions, hedging, and pricing financial derivatives. Schwartz and Smith [Schwartz, E.S., Smith, J.E. (2000). Short term-variations and long-term dynamics in commodity prices. Management Science, 46, 893-911.] proposed a two-factor model for describing the stochastic processes of commodity prices, in which the two factors are short-term variations and equilibrium prices. These are both unobserved state variables that are estimated using the Kalman filter. The estimation is based on the observation of future prices for different maturities. The authors have carried out this process without incorporating jumps in the short-term variation of prices. Here we aim to demonstrate that the inclusion of jumps better explains the behavior of oil prices, and in fact creates difficulties in the estimation of state variables. This is because the variables become non-Gaussian so the Kalman filter is not recommended. Another methodology, called the particle filter, is more suitable in this case, and we describe its application in this article

  6. An Analysis of Reconstituted Fluid Milk Pricing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glen D. Whipple

    1983-01-01

    This analysis suggests that alteration of the reconstituted fluid milk pricing provisions of federal and state milk market orders would have a substantial impact on market equilibrium. A reactive programming model of the U.S. milk market was used to simulate the effects of altered reconstituted fluid milk pricing policy. The solutions indicate that reconstituted fluid milk, as a lower cost alternative to fresh fluid milk, would make up a substantial portion of the fluid milk consumption in so...

  7. Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

  8. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  9. Price Conduction Mechanism of China’s Wheat Industry Chain Based on VECM

    OpenAIRE

    ZHU, Haiyan

    2015-01-01

    With the aid of the VECM (vector error correction model), this paper studied dynamic effect of wheat price and flour price conduction mechanism in the wheat industry chain. Study results indicate that in a long term, wheat price and flour price have equilibrium relationship. Through threshold co-integration test, it found that there is no threshold co-integration relationship between wheat price and flour price. This can be adjusted using the linear error correction mode (LECM). In a short te...

  10. Equilibrium Effects of Liquidity Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dursun-de Neef, Özlem

    2014-01-01

    Investors do not internalize the interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices when they decide on their borrowing. This leads to credit expansions, which are mostly followed by a collapse in asset prices, so it amplifies booms and busts in the economy. This paper studies welfare analyse...

  11. Using Controlled Landslide Initiation Experiments to Test Limit-Equilibrium Analyses of Slope Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, M. E.; Iverson, R. M.; Brien, D. L.; Iverson, N. R.; Lahusen, R. G.; Logan, M.

    2004-12-01

    Most studies of landslide initiation employ limit equilibrium analyses of slope stability. Owing to a lack of detailed data, however, few studies have tested limit-equilibrium predictions against physical measurements of slope failure. We have conducted a series of field-scale, highly controlled landslide initiation experiments at the USGS debris-flow flume in Oregon; these experiments provide exceptional data to test limit equilibrium methods. In each of seven experiments, we attempted to induce failure in a 0.65m thick, 2m wide, 6m3 prism of loamy sand placed behind a retaining wall in the 31° sloping flume. We systematically investigated triggering of sliding by groundwater injection, by prolonged moderate-intensity sprinkling, and by bursts of high intensity sprinkling. We also used vibratory compaction to control soil porosity and thereby investigate differences in failure behavior of dense and loose soils. About 50 sensors were monitored at 20 Hz during the experiments, including nests of tiltmeters buried at 7 cm spacing to define subsurface failure geometry, and nests of tensiometers and pore-pressure sensors to define evolving pore-pressure fields. In addition, we performed ancillary laboratory tests to measure soil porosity, shear strength, hydraulic conductivity, and compressibility. In loose soils (porosity of 0.52 to 0.55), abrupt failure typically occurred along the flume bed after substantial soil deformation. In denser soils (porosity of 0.41 to 0.44), gradual failure occurred within the soil prism. All failure surfaces had a maximum length to depth ratio of about 7. In even denser soil (porosity of 0.39), we could not induce failure by sprinkling. The internal friction angle of the soils varied from 28° to 40° with decreasing porosity. We analyzed stability at failure, given the observed pore-pressure conditions just prior to large movement, using a 1-D infinite-slope method and a more complete 2-D Janbu method. Each method provides a static

  12. Gaussian random bridges and a geometric model for information equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengütürk, Levent Ali

    2018-03-01

    The paper introduces a class of conditioned stochastic processes that we call Gaussian random bridges (GRBs) and proves some of their properties. Due to the anticipative representation of any GRB as the sum of a random variable and a Gaussian (T , 0) -bridge, GRBs can model noisy information processes in partially observed systems. In this spirit, we propose an asset pricing model with respect to what we call information equilibrium in a market with multiple sources of information. The idea is to work on a topological manifold endowed with a metric that enables us to systematically determine an equilibrium point of a stochastic system that can be represented by multiple points on that manifold at each fixed time. In doing so, we formulate GRB-based information diversity over a Riemannian manifold and show that it is pinned to zero over the boundary determined by Dirac measures. We then define an influence factor that controls the dominance of an information source in determining the best estimate of a signal in the L2-sense. When there are two sources, this allows us to construct information equilibrium as a functional of a geodesic-valued stochastic process, which is driven by an equilibrium convergence rate representing the signal-to-noise ratio. This leads us to derive price dynamics under what can be considered as an equilibrium probability measure. We also provide a semimartingale representation of Markovian GRBs associated with Gaussian martingales and a non-anticipative representation of fractional Brownian random bridges that can incorporate degrees of information coupling in a given system via the Hurst exponent.

  13. Oil market prices 1989/1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.

    1991-01-01

    There are many oil markets. Oil Market Prices lists the markets, provides statistics on prices and the volumes of trade, analyses the price structures in the markets and provides supplementary information on ocean freight rates and oil refining margins. Oil Market Prices will serve as a permanent record of crude oil prices including those quoted on the futures and forward markets, the many wholesale prices for refined oil products, prices consumers pay and the average prices received by the oil companies. In all instances the sources of the statistics are given together with comprehensive listing of alternative sources. (Author)

  14. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  15. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  16. Price schedules coordination for electricity pool markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legbedji, Alexis Motto

    2002-04-01

    We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of

  17. On the use of hourly pricing in techno-economic analyses for solar photovoltaic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommerfeldt, Nelson; Madani, Hatef

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The typical price year (TPY) method is described. • The impact of pricing simplification models on revenues and NPV are tested. • The TPY is shown to be a good long-term price curve for techno-economic studies. • A static mean annual price can replace hourly in the Swedish market with minimal error. - Abstract: The use of hourly prices in distributed photovoltaic (PV) techno-economic analysis is rare, but may become necessary as time-of-day retail pricing becomes more common. A methodology is presented for selecting an hourly price curve suitable for long-term analysis, called the typical price year (TPY), which is based on the methodology for TMY weather data. Using a techno-economic analysis with annual revenues and net present value as indicators, a TPY curve for the Swedish market is validated and then compared to 18 price simplification methods to determine the error introduced by the use of non-hourly prices. Results show that the TPY method produces a curve which accurately represents long term pricing trends, but using a static annual mean introduces minor revenue errors of 1.3%. This suggests the TPY may not be necessary in the Swedish market, but further analysis of the method is suggested for other markets

  18. Intangible asset valuation, damages, and transfer price analyses in the health care industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Robert F

    2010-01-01

    Most health care industry participants own and operate intangible assets. These intangible assets can be industry-specific (e.g., patient charts and records, certificates of need, professional and other licenses), or they can be general commercial intangible assets (e.g., trademarks, systems and procedures, an assembled workforce). Many industry participants have valued their intangible assets for financial accounting or other purposes. This article summarizes the intangible assets that are common to health care industry participants. This article describes the different types of intangible asset analyses (including valuation, transfer price, damages estimates, etc.), and explains the many different transaction, accounting, taxation, regulatory, litigation, and other reasons why industry participants may wish to value (or otherwise analyze) health care intangible assets.

  19. The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

  20. Financial markets theory equilibrium, efficiency and information

    CERN Document Server

    Barucci, Emilio

    2017-01-01

    This work, now in a thoroughly revised second edition, presents the economic foundations of financial markets theory from a mathematically rigorous standpoint and offers a self-contained critical discussion based on empirical results. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises, with detailed solutions to selected exercises. Financial Markets Theory covers classical asset pricing theory in great detail, including utility theory, equilibrium theory, portfolio selection, mean-variance portfolio theory, CAPM, CCAPM, APT, and the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Starting from an analysis of the empirical evidence on the theory, the authors provide a discussion of the relevant literature, pointing out the main advances in classical asset pricing theory and the new approaches designed to address asset pricing puzzles and open problems (e.g., behavioral finance). Later chapters in the book contain more advanced material, including on the role of information in financial markets, non-c...

  1. Dynamic Pricing Based on Strategic Consumers and Substitutes in a Duopoly Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gongbing Bi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the rational strategic consumers, we construct a dynamic game to build a two-period dynamic pricing model for two brands of substitutes which are sold by duopoly. The solution concept of the dynamic game is Nash equilibrium. In our model, consumers have been clearly segmented into several consumption classes, according to their expected value of the products. The two competing firms enter a pricing game and finally reach the state of Nash equilibrium. In addition, decision-making process with only myopic consumers existing in the market is analyzed. To make the paper more practical and realistic, the condition, in which the myopic and strategic consumers both exist in the market, is also considered and studied. In order to help the readers understand better and make it intuitively more clearly, a numerical example is given to describe the influence of the main parameters to the optimal prices. The result indicates that, to maintain the firms’ respective optimal profits, the prices of the products should be adjusted appropriately with the changes of product differentiation coefficient.

  2. To Cooperate or Not? An Analysis of Complementary Product Pricing in Green Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wei

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the green supply chain pricing problem when two manufacturers sell complementary products to one retailer. Considering the manufacturers’ cooperation or noncooperation strategies, we first give the centralized pricing model as a benchmark. According to market power among the supply chain, we analyze two types of supply chains: supplier-led type where the green driving factor comes from the suppliers and retailer-led type where the core member retailer leads the green supply chain. We then give two decentralized pricing models through considering strategic cooperation between two manufacturers and different structures. Corresponding closed-form expressions for equilibrium pricing strategies are established. Finally, many valuable managerial results are acquired through comparing the profits and equilibrium decisions of these models. Our paper shows that consumers are indifferent as to who is the leader of the two echelons when the manufacturers adopt non-cooperative action; the two complementary products get the same optimal wholesale/retail prices, maximum retail margins, and maximum demands regardless of the manufacturers’ cooperation or noncooperation strategies.

  3. Pricing Model for Dual Sales Channel with Promotion Effect Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuiri Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We focus on the pricing strategy of a dual sales channel member when his/her online retailer faces an upcoming overloaded express delivery service due to the sales peak of online shopping, especially referring to the occurring affairs in China. We characterize the pricing problem of the dual selling channel system as a two-period game. When the price discount is only provided by the online seller, we find that the prices of the traditional channel and the online channel in the two periods are higher while the overloaded degree of express delivery is lower and the overloaded delivery services can decrease the profits of both channels. When the price discounts are provided by both traditional and online sellers, we find that the derived Nash price equilibrium of both channels includes five possible combinations of prices. Both traditional and online sellers will choose their price strategies, respectively, according to their cost advantages which are affected by the overloaded degree of express delivery.

  4. Dynamic Pricing Competition with Strategic Customers Under Vertical Product Differentiation

    OpenAIRE

    Qian Liu; Dan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    We consider dynamic pricing competition between two firms offering vertically differentiated products to strategic customers who are intertemporal utility maximizers. We show that price skimming arises as the unique pure-strategy Markov perfect equilibrium in the game under a simple condition. Our results highlight the asymmetric effect of strategic customer behavior on quality-differentiated firms. Even though the profit of either firm decreases as customers become more strategic, the low-qu...

  5. Port pricing : principles, structure and models

    OpenAIRE

    Meersman, Hilde; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen; Van de Voorde, Eddy

    2014-01-01

    Price level and price transparency are input to shippers’ choice of supply chain and transport mode. In this paper, we analyse current port pricing structures in the light of the pricing literature and consider opportunities for improvement. We present a detailed overview of pricing criteria, who sets prices and who ultimately foots the bill for port-of-call charges, cargo-handling fees and congestion charges. Current port pricing practice is based on a rather linear structure and fails to in...

  6. Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of passthrough of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong

  7. Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong

  8. THE CORN-EGG PRICE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM

    OpenAIRE

    Babula, Ronald A.; Bessler, David A.

    1990-01-01

    A vector autoregression (VAR) model of corn, farm egg, and retail egg prices is estimated and shocked with a corn price increase. Impulse responses in egg prices, t-statistics for the impulse responses, and decompositions of forecast error variance are presented. Analyses of results provide insights on the corn/egg price transmission mechanism and on how corn price shocks pulsate through the egg-related economy.

  9. Derivative pricing with liquidity risk : Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.

    2011-01-01

    We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of

  10. A note on the optimal pricing strategy in the discrete-time Geo/Geo/1 queuing system with sojourn time-dependent reward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doo Ho Lee

    Full Text Available This work studies the optimal pricing strategy in a discrete-time Geo/Geo/1 queuing system under the sojourn time-dependent reward. We consider two types of pricing schemes. The first one is called the ex-post payment scheme where the server charges a price that is proportional to the time a customer spends in the system, and the second one is called ex-ante payment scheme where the server charges a flat price for all services. In each pricing scheme, a departing customer receives the reward that is inversely proportional to his/her sojourn time. The server should make the optimal pricing decisions in order to maximize its expected profits per time unit in each pricing scheme. This work also investigates customer's equilibrium joining or balking behavior under server's optimal pricing strategy. Numerical experiments are also conducted to validate our analysis. Keywords: Optimal pricing, Equilibrium behavior, Geo/Geo/1 queue, Sojourn time-dependent reward

  11. Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naranpanawa, Athula; Bandara, Jayatilleke S.

    2012-01-01

    The sharp rise in oil and food prices in 2007 and 2008 caused negative impacts on poverty and economic growth in many oil and food importing developing countries. Some analysts believe that these countries are under stress again due to a rise in crude oil prices, to a two-and-a-half year high in March 2011, which has also been partly responsible for higher food prices in recent months. However, there is a limited body of empirical evidence available from developing countries on the impact of high oil prices on growth in general and household poverty in particular. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework to explore the growth and poverty impacts of high oil prices. The results suggest that urban low income households are the group most adversely affected by high global oil prices, followed by low income rural households. In contrast, estate low income households are the least affected out of all low income households. The energy intensive manufacturing sector and services sector are affected most compared to the agricultural sector. - Highlights: ► Using a general equilibrium model we find poverty and oil price link for Sri Lanka. ► Urban low income households are the group most adversely affected. ► Energy intensive manufacturing and services sectors are affected most.

  12. GOLD AND LAND PRICES WITH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN AN ECONOMY WITH INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL SECTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG WEI-BIN

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine dynamic interactions among gold value, land price and economic structure in a growth model with capital accumulation. The paper proposes a two-sector general equilibrium model with land and gold prices as endogenous variables. The economy consists of industrial and agricultural sectors with fixed land and gold. Land is used for residential use and agricultural production and gold is used for saving and decorations. The portfolio equilibrium growth model is based on the neoclassical growth theory and Ricardian theory. We simulate the model to demonstrate that the economic system has a unique stable steady state. We show how exogenous changes in preference and technology affect the transitory processes and long-term equilibrium.

  13. The Dynamics of Bertrand Price Competition with Cost-Reducing Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iskhakov, Fedor; Rust, John; Schjerning, Bertel

    We present a dynamic extension of the classic static model of Bertrand price competition that allows competing duopolists to undertake cost-reducing investments in an attempt to “leapfrog” their rival to attain low-cost leadership – at least temporarily. We show that leapfrogging occurs in equili......We present a dynamic extension of the classic static model of Bertrand price competition that allows competing duopolists to undertake cost-reducing investments in an attempt to “leapfrog” their rival to attain low-cost leadership – at least temporarily. We show that leapfrogging occurs...... in equilibrium, resolving the Bertrand investment paradox., i.e. leapfrogging explains why firms have an ex ante incentive to undertake cost-reducing investments even though they realize that simultaneous investments to acquire the state of the art production technology would result in Bertrand price competition...... leader. We show that the equilibrium involves investment preemption only when the firms invest in a deterministically alternating fashion and technological progress is deterministic. We prove that when technological progress is deterministic and firms move in an alternating fashion, the game has a unique...

  14. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  15. Accounting Fundamentals and Variations of Stock Price: Forward Looking Information Inducement

    OpenAIRE

    Sumiyana, Sumiyana

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates a permanent issue about low association between accounting fundamentals and variations of stock prices. It induces not only historical accountingfundamentals, but also forward looking information. Investors consider forward looking information that enables them to predict potential future cash flow, increase predictive power, lessen mispricing error, increase information content and drives future price equilibrium. The accounting fundamentals are earnings yield, book v...

  16. Manufacturer Suggested Retail Prices, Loss Aversion and Competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fabrizi, Simona; Lippert, Steffen; Puppe, Clemens; Rosenkranz, S.

    2016-01-01

    We study a model of vertical relations with imperfect retail competition in which a fraction of the consumers display reference-dependent demand with respect to the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. We demonstrate that in equilibrium the suggestion will either be undercut or complied with by

  17. A Reconsideration of Full-Cost Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Nubbemeyer, Elmar

    2010-01-01

    The wide use of full-cost pricing techniques remains an explanandum in both economics and management accounting theory. This work surveys and develops possible theoretical explanations of this industrial pricing behaviour and analyses some of its implications. By recognition of the widespread use of imperfect cost-plus pricing heuristics, observable pricing behaviour, as well as empirical market-level phenomena, can be explained. Furthermore, methodological aspects of marginalist price the...

  18. Oil price, biofuels and food supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

  19. Deconstructing Solar Photovoltaic Pricing: The Role of Market Structure, Technology, and Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Deng, Hao [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Nemet, Gregory [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rai, Varun [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Dong, C. G. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2014-12-15

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) system prices in the United States display considerable heterogeneity both across geographic locations and within a given location. Such heterogeneity may arise due to state and federal policies, differences in market structure, and other factors that influence demand and costs. This paper examines the relative importance of such factors on equilibrium solar PV system prices in the United States using a detailed dataset of roughly 100,000 recent residential and small commercial installations. As expected, we find that PV system prices differ based on characteristics of the systems. More interestingly, we find evidence suggesting that search costs and imperfect competition affect solar PV pricing. Installer density substantially lowers prices, while regions with relatively generous financial incentives for solar PV are associated with higher prices.

  20. Empirical analyses of price formation in the German electricity market - the devil is in the details; Empirische Analysen der Preisbildung am deutschen Elektrizitaetsmarkt - der Teufel steckt im Detail.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellersdorfer, I.; Hundt, M.; Sun Ninghong; Voss, A. [Stuttgart Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2008-05-15

    In view of the dramatic rise in wholesale prices over the past years, model-based empirical analyses of price formation in the electricity markets have become an important basis for the discussion on competition policy in Germany and Europe. Empirical analyses are usually performed on the basis of optimising fundamental models which describe the power supply system of a country in greater or lesser detail, thus making it possible to determine how power plants must be deployed so as to cover the electricity demand at the lowest possible cost. The task of determining the difference between market price and incremental cost, a parameter frequently used in competition analyses, is beset with many difficulties of a methodological or empirical nature. The present study undertakes the first ever systematic quantification of the influence of existing uncertainties on the results of the model calculations.

  1. Prices, technology development and the rebound effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birol, F.; Keppler, J.H.

    2000-01-01

    Energy efficiency is the critical parameter for policies that aim at reducing energy consumption while maintaining or even boosting economic growth. The two main options to influence energy efficiency are changes in relative prices, i.e., raising the price of energy through economic instruments, or to introduce new technologies which increase the productivity of each unit of energy. This paper is based on the notion that in an equilibrium economy the marginal economic productivity is identical for all factors, i.e., energy, labour, knowledge and capital. From this premise two main conclusions can be drawn. First, any change in price or technology will have an impact on the whole economy by creating feedbacks through the substitution of factors of production and goods, as well as increased wealth. Second, the two policy approaches, changing relative prices and technology development, are not opposite to each other. They are the two faces of the same reality and should be developed and promoted simultaneous and consistently. (Author)

  2. Pricing Models of e-Books When Competing with p-Books

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rise in popularity of e-books, there is a growing need to reexamine the pricing strategy in the e-book supply chain. In this paper, we study two forms of pricing models widely used in the book industry: wholesale and agency pricing models. We first assume a stylized deterministic demand model in which the demand depends on the price, the degree of substitution, and the overall market potential. Subsequently, we employ the game theory to determine the price equilibriums and profit distribution under different pricing models. Finally, we explore the behavior of the publisher and the retailer under different preferences and degrees of substitution through a computational study. Our findings indicate that the e-book price will be lower under the agency pricing model than under the wholesale pricing model, which is counterintuitive. The publishers have higher incentives to adopt the agency pricing model than the wholesale pricing model. The agency pricing model benefits the whole system and can provide readers with books at lower prices. The degree of substitution between the two forms of books and the readers’ preference toward e-book will affect the books’ price and the profit distribution between the publisher and the retailers.

  3. Bandwidth allocation and pricing problem for a duopoly market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You Peng-Sheng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This research discusses the Internet service provider (ISP bandwidth allocation and pricing problems for a duopoly bandwidth market with two competitive ISPs. According to the contracts between Internet subscribers and ISPs, Internet subscribers can enjoy their services up to their contracted bandwidth limits. However, in reality, many subscribers may experience the facts that their on-line requests are denied or their connection speeds are far below their contracted speed limits. One of the reasons is that ISPs accept too many subscribers as their subscribers. To avoid this problem, ISPs can set limits for their subscribers to enhance their service qualities. This paper develops constrained nonlinear programming to deal with this problem for two competitive ISPs. The condition for reaching the equilibrium between the two competitive firms is derived. The market equilibrium price and bandwidth resource allocations are derived as closed form solutions.

  4. Testing For Seasonal Cointegration and Error Correction: The U.S. Pecan Price-Inventory Relationship

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim, Mohammed; Florkowski, Wojciech J.

    2005-01-01

    Using time series data we examine behavior of pecan prices and inventories at zero and seasonal frequencies, given results of seasonal cointegration tests. Both, seasonally unadjusted and adjusted quarterly data are used (1991-2002). Results suggest that, first, shelled and total pecan inventories and shelled pecan prices have common unit roots at both the non-seasonal and seasonal frequencies; second, there is no long run equilibrium between pecan prices and shelled or total inventories when...

  5. The sequential price of anarchy for atomic congestion games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Jasper; Uetz, Marc Jochen; Liu, Tie-Yan; Qi, Qi; Ye, Yinyu

    2014-01-01

    In situations without central coordination, the price of anarchy relates the quality of any Nash equilibrium to the quality of a global optimum. Instead of assuming that all players choose their actions simultaneously, we consider games where players choose their actions sequentially. The sequential

  6. The sequential price of anarchy for atomic congestion games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Jasper; Uetz, Marc Jochen

    2014-01-01

    In situations without central coordination, the price of anarchy relates the quality of any Nash equilibrium to the quality of a global optimum. Instead of assuming that all players choose their actions simultaneously, here we consider games where players choose their actions sequentially. The

  7. Pure equilibrium strategies in multi-unit auctions with private value bidders

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Břeský, Michal

    -, č. 376 (2008), s. 1-44 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : multiple-unit auction * existence of equilibrium in discontinuous games * pay-your- bid and uniform-price auctions Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp376.pdf

  8. Energy Trading and Pricing in Microgrids with Uncertain Energy Supply: A Three-Stage Hierarchical Game Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ma

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE generation (wind power determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit, and then the consumers determine their energy demands to maximize their payoffs. The hierarchical game is established between the energy provider and the consumers. The energy provider is the leader and the consumers are the followers in the hierarchical game. We consider two types of consumers according to their response to the price, i.e., the price-taking consumers and the price-anticipating consumers. We derive the equilibrium point of the hierarchical game through the backward induction method. Comparing the two types of consumers, we study the influence of the types of consumers on the equilibrium point. In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.

  9. A Two-Sided Market Model of Optimal Price Structure for Instant Messenger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Instant messenger (IM is one of the most popular Internet applications all over the world. This paper examines the pricing problem of IM based on two-sided market model. IM serves as a two-sided platform, which gets both Internet users and advertisers on board. This paper concludes that IM operator adopts a heavily skewed price structure that favors IM users both under monopolistic case and under horizontal differentiated duopolistic case. When advertising revenue is large enough relatively to marginal cost for serving IM users, IM users can enjoy free service provided by IM operators. The competitive equilibrium of duopolistic case is not necessarily symmetric when advertisers choose singlehoming. Even in the symmetric equilibrium platform would rather deter all advertisers.

  10. A comparison of cost-based pricing rules for natural gas distribution utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, C.C.

    1993-01-01

    Partial-equilibrium social welfare deadweight losses under uniform Ramsey pricing, a cost allocation pricing method, and the actual average revenues by customer class for two natural gas distribution utilities are calculated and compared. Marginal cost estimates are derived from a multiple-output translog variable cost function and used, along with three sets of demand elasticities, to generate the Ramsey prices and welfare losses. The actual and cost-allocation prices are taken directly from rate case files. The largest social welfare losses are associated with the cost-allocation rule, as high as 10-25% of revenue, despite suggestions in the literature to the contrary. (Author)

  11. Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Ma, Guofeng; Liu, Guangsheng

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices. We find that nonlinear correlations are stronger in the long-term than in the short-term. Crude oil and product prices are cointegrated and financial crisis in 2007-2008 caused a structural break of the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, different from the findings in most studies, we reveal that the relationships are almost symmetric based on a threshold error correction model. The so-called 'asymmetric relationships' are caused by some outliers and financial crisis. Most of the time, crude oil prices play the major role in the adjustment process of the long-term equilibrium. However, refined product prices dominated crude oil prices during the period of financial crisis. Important policy and risk management implications can be learned from the empirical findings.

  12. A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

    2010-01-01

    We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

  13. General equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option under the Clean Development Mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timilsina, Govinda R; Shrestha, Ram M

    2006-09-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.

  14. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  15. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyler, Aidan

    2009-01-01

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  16. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  17. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  18. The dynamics of crude oil price differentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fattouh, Bassam

    2010-01-01

    Crude oil price differentials are modelled as a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) process using the method proposed by Caner and Hansen [Caner, M., Hansen, B.E. Threshold autoregression with a unit root. Econometrica 2001; 69; 1555-1596.]. While standard unit root tests suggest that the prices of crude oil of different varieties move closely together such that their price differential is stationary, the TAR results indicate strong evidence of threshold effects in the adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked and thus at the very general level, the oil market is 'one great pool' (Adelman, M.A. International oil agreements. The Energy Journal 1984; 5; 1-9.). However, differences in the dynamics of adjustment suggest that within this one pool, oil markets are not necessarily integrated in every time period and hence the dynamics of crude oil price differentials may not follow a stationary process at all times. Although the development of a liquid futures market around the crude oil benchmarks has helped make some distant markets more unified, arbitrage is not costless or risk-free and temporary breakdowns in the benchmarks can lead to decoupling of crude oil prices. (author)

  19. A Game Theoretic Framework for Bandwidth Allocation and Pricing in Federated Wireless Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Bo; Yamori, Kyoko; Xu, Sugang; Tanaka, Yoshiaki

    With the proliferation of IEEE 802.11 wireless local area networks, large numbers of wireless access points have been deployed, and it is often the case that a user can detect several access points simultaneously in dense metropolitan areas. Most owners, however, encrypt their networks to prevent the public from accessing them due to the increased traffic and security risk. In this work, we use pricing as an incentive mechanism to motivate the owners to share their networks with the public, while at the same time satisfying users' service demand. Specifically, we propose a “federated network” concept, in which radio resources of various wireless local area networks are managed together. Our algorithm identifies two candidate access points with the lowest price being offered (if available) to each user. We then model the price announcements of access points as a game, and characterize the Nash Equilibrium of the system. The efficiency of the Nash Equilibrium solution is evaluated via simulation studies as well.

  20. Quality and Pricing Decisions in a Two-Echelon Supply Chain with Nash Bargaining Fairness Concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-cai Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Product quality and pricing, as the important competitive tools, play a key role in attracting consumers. In a supply chain, the decisions on product quality and pricing are usually interlinked and would influence the cooperation relation between the members, especially when they are fairness-concerned and have different bargaining power. However, linking the quality and pricing decisions to the decision-makers’ behavioral factors such as fairness concern draws a little attention in the literature of supply chain management. This paper incorporates the members’ fairness preference and bargaining power into the product quality and pricing decisions in a two-echelon supply chain, where the supplier offers core components with a certain quality level to the downstream manufacturer, who subsequently sells the final products in the end market. Both the supplier and the manufacturer are assumed to be fairness-concerned by adopting Nash bargaining solutions as their fairness reference points. We use game-theoretic models to analyze the equilibrium product quality and pricing strategies under the setting of integrated and decentralized supply chain, respectively. Detailed comparisons and sensitivity analysis are further conducted to examine the impacts of members’ strengths of fairness concern, bargaining power, and decision structure on their equilibrium product quality and pricing strategies and corresponding payoffs.

  1. Pricing for a Durable-Goods Monopolist Under Rapid Sequential Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Laura J. Kornish

    2001-01-01

    A durable-goods monopolist who will be introducing new and improved versions of his product must decide how to price his products, keeping in mind the relative attractiveness of the current and future products. Dhebar (1994) has shown that if technology is changing too quickly and the producer cannot credibly commit to future prices and quality, then no equilibrium strategy exists. That is, there is no credible strategy for the future product that the producer can commit to in the first perio...

  2. Transactional price of an expected child and its application in birth control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X

    1993-01-01

    The theoretical presentation of the impact of the transactional price of an expected child (TPEC) on birth control led to the conclusion that successful birth control was a combination of birth utility theory and TPEC theory. In a hypothetical market, the assumption can be made that an expected price can be attached to a desired child or a transactional price can be attached for giving up the reproductive right to have an excess child. A consumer equilibrium model can characterize the changes in financial resources necessary in deciding on an appropriate number of children. In a general equilibrium model, couples would have to be compensated a certain amount as an inducement to forgo the right to have a second child. Prices of children can be determined by a distributional curve of this transactional price of expected excess children and the estimated marginal price for couples with two children. Under circumstances of limited resources, it would be cheaper to buy some couple's rights to forgo a child, and this price would vary with parity. The exact transactional price of each child by parity by each couple could be theoretically determined, if all couples told the truth about desired number of children. However, the complication is that this condition may not be possible, and couples may charge more for forgoing the right to a subsequent child that what they would actually accept. Also, the seller could ask one price and then charge more. A compromise would be to set prices only for lower parities and to set prices subject to the total funds available to the buyer. Very low prices would also decrease the effectiveness of birth control. The government could be a buyer or seller. Taxing couples for additional children would make the government a seller. When the government is the buyer, couples would be compensated for not having an additional child. Another possibility is a reward for having only a certain number of children and a tax for excess children, which

  3. Inflation persistence and flexible prices

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Dittmar; William T. Gavin; Finn E. Kydland

    2004-01-01

    If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from ...

  4. Sudden transition from equilibrium stability to chaotic dynamics in a cautious tâtonnement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroni, I.; Avellone, A.; Panchuk, A.

    2016-01-01

    Discrete time price adjustment processes may fail to converge and may exhibit periodic or even chaotic behavior. To avoid large price changes, a version of the discrete time tâtonnement process for reaching an equilibrium in a pure exchange economy based on a cautious updating of the prices has been proposed two decades ago. This modification leads to a one dimensional bimodal piecewise smooth map, for which we show analytically that degenerate bifurcations and border collision bifurcations play a fundamental role for the asymptotic behavior of the model. (paper)

  5. Beyond the sticker price: including and excluding time in comparing food prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yanliang; Davis, George C; Muth, Mary K

    2015-07-01

    An ongoing debate in the literature is how to measure the price of food. Most analyses have not considered the value of time in measuring the price of food. Whether or not the value of time is included in measuring the price of a food may have important implications for classifying foods based on their relative cost. The purpose of this article is to compare prices that exclude time (time-exclusive price) with prices that include time (time-inclusive price) for 2 types of home foods: home foods using basic ingredients (home recipes) vs. home foods using more processed ingredients (processed recipes). The time-inclusive and time-exclusive prices are compared to determine whether the time-exclusive prices in isolation may mislead in drawing inferences regarding the relative prices of foods. We calculated the time-exclusive price and time-inclusive price of 100 home recipes and 143 processed recipes and then categorized them into 5 standard food groups: grains, proteins, vegetables, fruit, and dairy. We then examined the relation between the time-exclusive prices and the time-inclusive prices and dietary recommendations. For any food group, the processed food time-inclusive price was always less than the home recipe time-inclusive price, even if the processed food's time-exclusive price was more expensive. Time-inclusive prices for home recipes were especially higher for the more time-intensive food groups, such as grains, vegetables, and fruit, which are generally underconsumed relative to the guidelines. Focusing only on the sticker price of a food and ignoring the time cost may lead to different conclusions about relative prices and policy recommendations than when the time cost is included. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  6. The economic consequences of rising oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2006-05-01

    In the context of rising crude oil prices observed in the last five years, this paper attempts to shed light on the possible consequences of a costlier barrel. We shall begin with a brief presentation of the main results of the analyses conducted in the last 30 years, concerning the impact of energy prices on economic activity. We shall then interpret these analyses and their conclusions, and try to draw a number of lessons about the anticipated effects of the recent trend in energy prices. (author)

  7. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Zhen-Hua; Zou, Le-Le; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines carbon price volatility using data from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme from a nonlinear dynamics point of view. First, we use a random walk model, including serial correlation and variance ratio tests, to determine whether carbon price history information is fully reflected in current carbon price. The empirical research results show that carbon price is not a random walk: the price history information is not fully reflected in current carbon price. Second, use R/S, modified R/S and ARFIMA to analyse the memory of carbon price history. For the period April 2005-December 2008, the modified Hurst index of the carbon price is 0.4859 and the d value of ARFIMA is -0.1191, indicating short-term memory of the carbon price. Third, we use chaos theory to analyse the influence of the carbon market internal mechanism on carbon price, i.e., the market's positive and negative feedback mechanism and the heterogeneous environment. Chaos theory proves that the correlation dimension of carbon price increases. The maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive and large. There is no obvious complex endogenous phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics the carbon price fluctuation. The carbon market is mildly chaotic, showing both market and fractal market characteristics. Price fluctuation is not only influenced by the internal market mechanism, but is also impacted by the heterogeneous environment. Finally, we provide suggestions for regulation and development of carbon market.

  8. Examining the Effect of World Price Transfer to Domestic Markets for Sensitive and Certain Agricultural Products in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. shabanzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agriculture as one of old sectors of economy has been important role in the supply food for peoples and raw materials. Globalization causes rapid growth of world trade and reduces information and communications costs. Globalization and rapid growth of trade increases the potential benefits of trade for agriculture from various aspects. The potential benefits of trade for agriculture increases from three aspects. Direct increase in the domain of agricultural sector activities for competition in the global market results in the benefits of access to global markets. This is especially true in cases where there is comparative advantage and the indirect effects of increased global trade on non-agricultural sectors that cause the domestic demand for food change from qualitative and quantitative aspects, are the benefits of this event. However, during the process of globalization, how to influence prices in different markets, including the impact of world prices on domestic prices is an important issue in trade policy analysis. During this process domestic prices are directly related to world prices. With this approach, the main objective of this study is to examine the effect of world price transfers to domestic markets for sensitive and certain agricultural products in Iran during 1360-91. Materials and Methods: To achieve this goal in this study, the Armington and the foreign currency elasticity of ten selected agricultural products in Iran including wheat, barley, rice, corn, soybean meal, vegetable oil (soybean and sunflower, sugar, eggs, poultry and beef, have been estimated and examined using Autoregressive Distribution lag Model (ARDL. In order to investigate speed of adjustment or in other words the speed of movement towards equilibrium, typically the error correction model (ECM is used. Existence of cointegration or in other words, long term relationship between a set of economic variables provide the basis for the use of error

  9. El capital humano en el sistema de precios Human capital in the price system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuevas Homero

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Este ensayo explora algunas implicaciones fundamentales de la introducción del capital humano en un sistema de equilibrio general de precios de producción. En particular, las implicaciones sobre las determinación de los salarios, los agregados, la homogeneidad del modelo de trabajo, las proporciones capital trabajo, la tasa natural del beneficio y las fluctuaciones de los precios de equilibrio.This essay explores some fundamental implications of the introduction of human capital in a system of general equilibrium of prices of production. In particular, the implications concerning the determination of wages, the aggregates, the homogenei ty of labor, the capital-labor ratio, the natural rate of profit and the fluctuations of equilibrium prices.

  10. Central bank instruments, fiscal policy regimes, and the requirements for equilibrium determinacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schabert, A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the role of the monetary instrument choice for local equilibrium determinacy under sticky prices and different fiscal policy regimes. Corresponding to Benhabib et al.'s results for interest rate feedback rules [Benhabib, J., Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., 2001. Monetary policy and

  11. Long-term projections for electricity and gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borggrefe, Frieder; Lochner, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    The article analyses potential developments of wholesale electricity prices in Germany until 2030. The relevant determinants and their effects on prices are shown. Several projections demonstrate the impact of future fuel prices taking the political framework into account. The importance of carbon and gas prices - and the latter's relationship to oil prices - are discussed extensively. Although forecasting electricity prices is associated with great uncertainties, the article illustrates the relative impacts of the various price determinants and their interactions. (orig.)

  12. Optimal Decisions in a Single-Period Supply Chain with Price-Sensitive Random Demand under a Buy-Back Contract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies a single-period supply chain with a buy-back contract under a Stackelberg game model, in which the supplier (leader decides on the wholesale price, and the retailer (follower responds to determine the retail price and the order quantity. We analytically investigate the decentralized retailer’s optimal decision. Our results demonstrate that the retailer has a unique optimal simultaneous decision on the retail price and the order quantity, under a mild restriction on the demand distribution. Moreover, as it can be shown that the decentralized supply chain facing price-sensitive random demand cannot be coordinated with buy-back contract, we propose a scheme for the system to achieve Pareto-improvement. Theoretical analysis suggests that there exists a unique Pareto-equilibrium for the supply chain. In particular, when the Pareto-equilibrium is reached, the supply chain is coordinated. Numerical experiments confirm our results.

  13. Energy taxes and wages in a general equilibrium model of production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, H.

    2000-01-01

    Energy taxes are responsible for a good deal of observed differences in energy prices across states and countries. They alter patterns of production and income distribution. The present paper examines the potential of energy taxes to lower wages in a general equilibrium model of production with capital, labour and energy inputs. (Author)

  14. 'Be Nice Unless it Pays to Fight' : A New Theory of Price Determination with Implications for Competition Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper introduces a simple extensive form pricing game.The Bertrand outcome is a Nash equilibrium outcome in this game, but it is not necessarily subgame perfect.The subgame perfect equilibrium outcome features the following comparative static properties.The more similar firms are, the higher

  15. Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

    2016-01-01

    After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

  16. Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saenz de Miera, Gonzalo; Rio Gonzalez, Pablo del; Vizcaino, Ignacio

    2008-01-01

    It is sometimes argued that renewables are 'expensive'. However, although it is generally true that the private costs of renewable electricity generation are certainly above those of conventional electricity, that statement fails to consider the social benefits provided by electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E), including environmental and socioeconomic ones. This paper empirically analyses an additional albeit usually neglected benefit: the reduction in the wholesale price of electricity as a result of more RES-E generation being fed into the grid. The case of wind generation in Spain shows that this reduction is greater than the increase in the costs for the consumers arising from the RES-E support scheme (the feed-in tariffs), which are charged to the final consumer. Therefore, a net reduction in the retail electricity price results, which is positive from a consumer point of view. This provides an additional argument for RES-E support and contradicts one of the usual arguments against RES-E deployment: the excessive burden on the consumer

  17. How can results from macro economic analyses of the energy consumption of households be used in macro models? A discussion of theoretical and empirical literature about aggregation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halvorsen, Bente; Larsen, Bodil M.; Nesbakken, Runa

    2001-01-01

    The literature on energy demand shows that there are systematic differences in income- and price elasticity from analyses based on macro data and micro data. Even if one estimates models with the same explanatory variables, the results may differ with respect to estimated price- and income sensitivity. These differences may be caused by problems involved in transferring micro properties to macro properties, or the estimated macro relationships have failed to adequately consideration the fact that households behave differently in their energy demand. Political goals are often directed towards the entire household sector. Partial equilibrium models do not capture important equilibrium effects and feedback through the energy markets and the economy in general. Thus, it is very interesting, politically and scientifically, to do macro economic model analyses of different political measures that affect the energy consumption. The results of behavioural analyses, in which one investigates the heterogeneity of the energy demand, must be based on information about individual households. When the demand is studied based on micro data, it is difficult to aggregate its properties to a total demand function for the entire household sector if different household sectors have different behaviour. Such heterogeneity of behaviour may for instance arise when households in different regions have different heating equipment because of regional differences in the price of electricity. The subject of aggregation arises immediately when one wants to draw conclusions about the household sector based on information about individual households, whether the discussion is about the whole population or a selection of households. Thus, aggregation is a topic of interest in a wide range of problems

  18. The rational expectations equilibrium inventory model theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    This volume consists of six essays that develop and/or apply "rational expectations equilibrium inventory models" to study the time series behavior of production, sales, prices, and inventories at the industry level. By "rational expectations equilibrium inventory model" I mean the extension of the inventory model of Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon (1960) to account for: (i) discounting, (ii) infinite horizon planning, (iii) observed and unobserved by the "econometrician" stochastic shocks in the production, factor adjustment, storage, and backorders management processes of firms, as well as in the demand they face for their products; and (iv) rational expectations. As is well known according to the Holt et al. model firms hold inventories in order to: (a) smooth production, (b) smooth production changes, and (c) avoid stockouts. Following the work of Zabel (1972), Maccini (1976), Reagan (1982), and Reagan and Weitzman (1982), Blinder (1982) laid the foundations of the rational expectations equilibrium inve...

  19. A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Asspet Price with Three Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Matsumoto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model ofa ...nancial market with one risky asset, two types of agents (i.e., thefundamentalists and the chartists, and three time delays. The chartistdemand is determined through a nonlinear function of the di¤erence be-tween the current price and a weighted moving average of the delayedprices whereas the fundamentalist demand is governed by the di¤erencebetween the current price and the fundamental value. The asset price dy-namics is described by a nonlinear delay di¤erential equation. Two mainresults are analytically and numerically shown:(i the delay destabilizes the market price and generates cyclic oscillationsaround the equilibrium;(ii under multiple delays, stability loss and gain repeatedly occurs as alength of the delay increases.

  20. Negotiating transfer pricing using the Nash bargaining solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clempner Julio B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes and proposes a solution to the transfer pricing problem from the point of view of the Nash bargaining game theory approach. We consider a firm consisting of several divisions with sequential transfers, in which central management provides a transfer price decision that enables maximization of operating profits. Price transferring between divisions is negotiable throughout the bargaining approach. Initially, we consider a disagreement point (status quo between the divisions of the firm, which plays the role of a deterrent. We propose a framework and a method based on the Nash equilibrium approach for computing the disagreement point. Then, we introduce a bargaining solution, which is a single-valued function that selects an outcome from the feasible pay-offs for each bargaining problem that is a result of cooperation of the divisions of the firm involved in the transfer pricing problem. The agreement reached by the divisions in the game is the most preferred alternative within the set of feasible outcomes, which produces a profit-maximizing allocation of the transfer price between divisions. For computing the bargaining solution, we propose an optimization method. An example illustrating the usefulness of the method is presented.

  1. Impact of European pharmaceutical price regulation on generic price competition: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig-Junoy, Jaume

    2010-01-01

    Although economic theory indicates that it should not be necessary to intervene in the generic drug market through price regulation, most EU countries intervene in this market, both by regulating the maximum sale price of generics (price cap) and by setting the maximum reimbursement rate, especially by means of reference pricing systems. We analyse current knowledge of the impact of direct price-cap regulation of generic drugs and the implementation of systems regulating the reimbursement rate, particularly through reference pricing and similar tools, on dynamic price competition between generic competitors in Europe. A literature search was carried out in the EconLit and PubMed databases, and on Google Scholar. The search included papers published in English or Spanish between January 2000 and July 2009. Inclusion criteria included that studies had to present empirical results of a quantitative nature for EU countries of the impact of price capping and/or regulation of the reimbursement rate (reference pricing or similar systems) on price dynamics, corresponding to pharmacy sales, in the generic drug market. The available evidence indicates that price-cap regulation leads to a levelling off of generic prices at a higher level than would occur in the absence of this regulation. Reference pricing systems cause an obvious and almost compulsory reduction in the consumer price of all pharmaceuticals subject to this system, to a varying degree in different countries and periods, the reduction being greater for originator-branded drugs than for generics. In several countries with a reference pricing system, it was observed that generics with a consumer price lower than the reference price do not undergo price reductions until the reference price is reduced, even when there are other lower-priced generics on the market (absence of price competition below the reference price). Beyond the price reduction forced by the price-cap and/or reference pricing regulation itself

  2. Energy price forecast by market analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jongepier, A.G.

    2000-01-01

    A power trader benefits from accurate price predictions. Based on market analyses, KEMA Connect has developed - in cooperation with Essent Energy Trading - a market model, enhancing the insight into market operation and one's own actions and thus resulting in accurate price predictions

  3. Complex Nonlinear Dynamic System of Oligopolies Price Game with Heterogeneous Players Under Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Li, Yaguang

    A nonlinear four oligopolies price game with heterogeneous players, that are boundedly rational and adaptive, is built using two different special demand costs. Based on the theory of complex discrete dynamical system, the stability and the existing equilibrium point are investigated. The complex dynamic behavior is presented via bifurcation diagrams, the Lyapunov exponents to show equilibrium state, bifurcation and chaos with the variation in parameters. As disturbance is ubiquitous in economic systems, this paper focuses on the analysis of delay feedback control method under noise circumstances. Stable dynamics is confirmed to depend mainly on the low price adjustment speed, and if all four players have limited opportunities to stabilize the market, the new adaptive player facing profits of scale are found to be higher than the incumbents of bounded rational.

  4. Impact of Risk Aversion on Price and Quality Decisions under Demand Uncertainty via the CARA Utility Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinqin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.

  5. Price and Service Competition between New and Remanufactured Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper sets two manufacturers on the market. One is traditional manufacturer, which produces new products, and the other remanufactures by recycling used products. Two manufacturers sell products to customers through one retailer and also provide product-related services. Three participators decide prices and service levels independently. We discuss the optimal decision of prices, service levels, demands, and profits in three scenarios: Manufacturers Stackelberg, Retailer Stackelberg, and Nash Equilibrium. We also study the influence of customer acceptance of remanufactured product (θ on participators’ decisions. With the increase of θ, new product profit reduces; remanufactured product profit increases at the beginning and then decreases. Retailer profit grows steadily. In Manufacturers Stackelberg, new and remanufactured products can get the maximum profits, and retailer only has the minimum profit. In Retailer Stackelberg, retailer can get the maximum profit; new product only has the minimum profit and remanufactured product has the medium gain. In Nash Equilibrium, new product and retailer have the medium gains, and remanufactured product has the minimum profit.

  6. A study on tokamak fusion reactor - Numerical analyses of MHD equilibrium= and edge plasma transport in tokamak fusion reactor with divertor configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Sang Hee; Lim, Ki Hang; Kang, Kyung Doo; Ryu, Ji Myung; Kim, Duk Kyu [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Soo Won [Kyungki Unviersity, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-08-01

    In the present project for developing the numerical codes of 2-DMHD equilibrium, edge plasma transport and neutral particle transport for the tokamak plasmas, we compute the plasma equilibrium of double null type and calculate the external coil currents and the plasma parameters used for operation and control data. Also the numerical algorithm is developed to analyse the behavior of edge plasmas in poloidal and radial directions and the programming and debugging of a 2-D transport code are completed. Furthermore, a neutral particle transport code for the edge region is developed and then used for the analysis of the neutral transport phenomena giving the sources in the fluid equations, and expected to supply the input parameters for the edge plasma transport code. 34 refs., 5 tabs., 28 figs. (author)

  7. East African governments' responses to high cereal prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, G.W.; Roza, P.; Berkum, van S.

    2009-01-01

    This study analyses the responses of governments in four East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia) with respect to price formation and price transmission in the cereal sector. All four countries were confronted with high cereal prices in 2008. Government policies applied largely

  8. What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesicki, Fabian

    2013-01-01

    Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are widely used for the assessment of costs related to CO 2 emissions reduction in environmental economics, as well as domestic and international climate policy. Several meta-analyses and model comparisons have previously been performed that aim to identify the causes for the wide range of MAC curves. Most of these concentrate on general equilibrium models with a focus on aspects such as specific model type and technology learning, while other important aspects remain almost unconsidered, including the availability of abatement technologies and level of discount rates. This paper addresses the influence of several key parameters on MAC curves for the United Kingdom and the year 2030. A technology-rich energy system model, UK MARKAL, is used to derive the MAC curves. The results of this study show that MAC curves are robust even to extreme fossil fuel price changes, while uncertainty around the choice of the discount rate, the availability of key abatement technologies and the demand level were singled out as the most important influencing factors. By using a different model type and studying a wider range of influencing factors, this paper contributes to the debate on the sensitivity of MAC curves. - Highlights: ► A partial-equilibrium model is employed to test key sensitivities of MAC curves. ► MAC curves are found to be robust to wide-ranging changes in fossil fuel prices. ► Most influencing factors are the discount rate, availability of key technologies. ► Further important uncertainty in MAC curves is related to demand changes

  9. Price game and chaos control among three oligarchs with different rationalities in property insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Zhang, Junling

    2012-12-01

    Combining with the actual competition in Chinese property insurance market and assuming that the property insurance companies take the marginal utility maximization as the basis of decision-making when they play price games, we first established the price game model with three oligarchs who have different rationalities. Then, we discussed the existence and stability of equilibrium points. Third, we studied the theoretical value of Lyapunov exponent at Nash equilibrium point and its change process with the main parameters' changes though having numerical simulation for the system such as the bifurcation, chaos attractors, and so on. Finally, we analyzed the influences which the changes of different parameters have on the profits and utilities of oligarchs and their corresponding competition advantage. Based on this, we used the variable feedback control method to control the chaos of the system and stabilized the chaos state to Nash equilibrium point again. The results have significant theoretical and practical application value.

  10. Price game and chaos control among three oligarchs with different rationalities in property insurance market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Zhang, Junling

    2012-12-01

    Combining with the actual competition in Chinese property insurance market and assuming that the property insurance companies take the marginal utility maximization as the basis of decision-making when they play price games, we first established the price game model with three oligarchs who have different rationalities. Then, we discussed the existence and stability of equilibrium points. Third, we studied the theoretical value of Lyapunov exponent at Nash equilibrium point and its change process with the main parameters' changes though having numerical simulation for the system such as the bifurcation, chaos attractors, and so on. Finally, we analyzed the influences which the changes of different parameters have on the profits and utilities of oligarchs and their corresponding competition advantage. Based on this, we used the variable feedback control method to control the chaos of the system and stabilized the chaos state to Nash equilibrium point again. The results have significant theoretical and practical application value.

  11. House prices and land regulation in the Copenhagen area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten; Lauridsen, Jørgen Trankjær; Nannerup, Niels Erik Holm

    2013-01-01

    We analyse house prices from 1992 to 2011 in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen. In line with most other metropolitan areas in Europe, Copenhagen house prices showed solid increases during this period until 2007 when a downturn in prices began. The price gradient from the centre of the metropolis...

  12. Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paschmann, Martin

    2017-11-15

    Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

  13. Economic analysis of price premiums in the presence of non-convexities. Evidence from German electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschmann, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Analyzing price data from sequential German electricity markets, namely the day-ahead and intraday auction, a puzzling but apparently systematic pattern of price premiums can be identified. The price premiums are highly correlated with the underlying demand profile. As there is evidence that widespread models for electricity forward premiums are not applicable to the market dynamics under analysis, a theoretical model is developed within this article which reveals that non-convexities in only a subset of sequential markets with differing product granularity may cause systematic price premiums at equilibrium. These price premiums may be bidirectional and reflect a value for additional short-term power supply system flexibility.

  14. Pricing Strategy and Quick Response Adoption System with Strategic Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfeng Dong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study determined the competitive advantage of a quick response (QR system when a firm faces forward-looking customers with heterogeneous and uncertain valuations for a product, uncertain demand, and two selling periods. We identify two classes of pricing strategies, namely, no-price commitment strategy and price commitment strategy. Interestingly, the unique equilibrium is proven to exist if and only if most customers have high tastes on a product’s value. We also prove that when customers possess beliefs about the markdown in the second period being smaller enough, a firm obtains a high profit with price commitment; otherwise he obtains a high profit without price commitment. Moreover, we distinguish the competitive advantage of a QR system from two strategies. When a firm uses no-price commitment strategy, the value of QR system in the first period decreases and in the second period increases with customer’s strategic behavior. When a firm provides price commitment, the value of QR system in the first period may increase, decrease, or decrease first and then increase with customer’s strategic behavior. And the value of QR in the second period under price commitment strategy decreases or rises first and then decreases with customer’s strategic behavior.

  15. An Empirical Analysis of Equilibrium Pricing and Advertising in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Market

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Cohen; Adam Rabinowitz

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a model of dynamic price and advertising competition and use the model to investigate a popular segment of the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Market. It is well understood that advertising is a key non-price strategic demand determinant in differentiated product markets. Two popular and compatible models for the role of advertising have emerged. One model specifies advertising as a determinant of a consumer's level of product awareness (informative) and the other model specifies advertising...

  16. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market; Analyse et modelisation des prix des produits petroliers combustibles en europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, V

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  17. Effectiveness of unit-based pricing of waste in the Netherlands: applying a general equilibrium model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beukering, Pieter J H; Bartelings, Heleen; Linderhof, Vincent G M; Oosterhuis, Frans H

    2009-11-01

    Differential and variable rates (DVR) in waste collection charging give a price incentive to households to reduce their waste and increase recycling. International empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness of DVR schemes, with limited unwanted side effects. In the Netherlands, currently some 20% of the population is charged at DVR. This is less than in several other countries. Taking into account differences between types of households and dwellings, this study analyses various scenarios for extended use of DVR in the Netherlands. The analysis shows that further penetration of DVR is a cost-effective instrument for waste reduction and more recycling. Moreover, DVR can itself be seen as a necessary condition for the successful implementation of other economic instruments, such as waste taxes. It is therefore recommended to stimulate municipalities to adopt DVR schemes in the Netherlands, accompanied by the provision of adequate facilities for waste separation by households. Before introducing DVR in 'very strongly urbanized' municipalities (i.e. the 12 largest cities in the Netherlands) a pilot experiment in one of them might be useful to test the behavioral response in this category.

  18. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

    OpenAIRE

    Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

  19. Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

    2017-07-01

    With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

  20. What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelsen, Laura; Green, Rosemary; Turner, Rachel; Dangour, Alan D; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Social Optimality of Cordon Area Congestion Pricing in an Monocentric City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harya S Dillon

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Kemacetan lalu lintas merupakan epidemi global yang telah melumpuhkan banyak kota. Dari sudut pandang ekonomi mikro, kemacetan dapat dipandang sebagai eksternalitas negatif dimana diperlukan bea Pigovian sebagai solusi atas ekuilibrium yang kurang optimal tersebut. Eksternalitas ini dirasakan dalam bentuk tundaan perjalanan dan pembangunan kota yang rakus lahan. Meskipun teori mengenai ketepatgunaan bea kemacetan (congestion pricing telah mapan sejak akhir 1970-an, penerapan dan implementasi kebijakan tertunda oleh kendala teknologi. Salah satu bentuk implementasi bayaran kemacetan yang sering dijumpai adalah bea lintas-kordon (cordon charging, dimana penglaju yang masuk ke wilayah pusat dibebani sejumlah biaya. Ketepatgunaan dari bea lintas-kordon telah dikaji secara empiris dan juga dengan simulasi numerik, namun penjelasan teoretis belum dilakukan secara tuntas. Penulis mengembangkan model kota monosentris untuk meneliti dampak kebijakan bea lintas-kordon pada kepadatan kota dan permintaan akan lahan kota (equilibrium rent. Bea lintas-kordon akan menaikkan harga lahan di pusat kota dan memperbesar gradien kurva tawaran-sewa (bid-rent curve. Namun yang lebih penting untuk diperhatikan adalah bahwa besaran ini ditentukan oleh parameter kordon. Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa daya manfaat kebijakan ini sangat dipengaruhi oleh pilihan parameter kordon yang dibuat perencana.Kata kunci. kemacetan, bea lintas-kordon, kota monosentris, struktur kotaAbstract. Traffic congestion is a global epidemic that at time has put cities to a state of paralysis. From a microeconomics point of view, congestion can be approached as a negative externality that merits a Pigovian tax to correct the suboptimal equilibrium. Externalities manifest in delays and wasteful urbanization. While the efficiency of congestion pricing has been well established since the late 1970s, policy adoption and implementation have been delayed due to technological

  2. Pricing of temperature index insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Mohd Imran Che Taib

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study pricing of weather insurance contracts based on temperature indices. Three different pricing methods are analysed: the classical burn approach, index modelling and temperature modelling. We take the data from Malaysia as our empirical case. Our results show that there is a significant difference between the burn and index pricing approaches on one hand, and the temperature modelling method on the other. The latter approach is pricing the insurance contract using a seasonal autoregressive time series model for daily temperature variations, and thus provides a precise probabilistic model for the fine structure of temperature evolution. We complement our pricing analysis by an investigation of the profit/loss distribution from the contract, in the perspective of both the insured and the insurer.

  3. Unique supply function equilibrium with capacity constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, Paer

    2008-01-01

    Consider a market where producers submit supply functions to a procurement auction with uncertain demand, e.g. an electricity auction. In the Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE), every firm commits to the supply function that maximises expected profit in the one-shot game given the supply functions of competitors. A basic weakness of the SFE is the presence of multiple equilibria. This paper shows that with (i) symmetric producers, (ii) perfectly inelastic demand, (iii) a price cap, and (iv) capacity constraints that bind with a positive probability, there exists a unique, symmetric SFE. (author)

  4. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  5. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  6. An Empirical Analysis of Latitude of Price Acceptance in Consumer Package Goods.

    OpenAIRE

    Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy; Little, John D C

    1994-01-01

    Scanner panel data analyses for sweetened and unsweetened drink categories (with four brands in each) support the presence of a region of price insensitivity around a reference price. The analyses also suggest that consumers with higher average reference price have a wider latitude of price acceptance. Consumers with a higher frequency of purchase (i.e., shorter average interpurchase time interval) are found to have a narrower latitude of price acceptance, because they are more aware of the r...

  7. Sourcing and pricing strategies for two retailers in a decentralized supply chain system under supply disruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Azarmehr

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the decentralized supply chain with two suppliers and two competing retailers. It also investigates the sourcing and pricing strategies of two retailers in a decentralized supply chain system under a supply disruption environment. These retailers face their individual stochastic demand markets; however, they compete with each other through a two-stage price and service operation. The interactive dynamics among retailers is characterized, including the existence and uniqueness of the Nash Equilibrium in service and price games demonstrated.

  8. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-03-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

  9. Optimal Dispatching of Active Distribution Networks Based on Load Equilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Han

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the optimal intraday scheduling of a distribution system that includes renewable energy (RE generation, energy storage systems (ESSs, and thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs. This system also provides time-of-use pricing to customers. Unlike previous studies, this study attempts to examine how to optimize the allocation of electric energy and to improve the equilibrium of the load curve. Accordingly, we propose a concept of load equilibrium entropy to quantify the overall equilibrium of the load curve and reflect the allocation optimization of electric energy. Based on this entropy, we built a novel multi-objective optimal dispatching model to minimize the operational cost and maximize the load curve equilibrium. To aggregate TCLs into the optimization objective, we introduced the concept of a virtual power plant (VPP and proposed a calculation method for VPP operating characteristics based on the equivalent thermal parameter model and the state-queue control method. The Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm was employed to solve the optimization problems. The simulation results illustrated that the proposed dispatching model can achieve cost reductions of system operations, peak load curtailment, and efficiency improvements, and also verified that the load equilibrium entropy can be used as a novel index of load characteristics.

  10. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  11. General Equilibrium in a Segmented Market Economy with Convex Transaction Cost: Existence, Efficiency, Commodity and Fiat Money

    OpenAIRE

    Starr, Ross M.

    2002-01-01

    This study derives the monetary structure of transactions, the use of commodity or fiat money, endogenously from transaction costs in a segmented market general equilibrium model. Market segmentation means there are separate budget constraints for each transaction: budgets balance in each transaction separately. Transaction costs imply differing bid and ask (selling and buying) prices. The most liquid instruments are those with the lowest proportionate bid/ask spread in equilibrium. Exist...

  12. Flex-fuel vehicle adoption and dynamics of ethanol prices: lessons from Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Xiaodong; Carriquiry, Miguel A.

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our research hypotheses: (i) when consumers can choose between the fuels the relative ethanol and gasoline prices converge to a long-run equilibrium level, which is determined by the fuel economy, and (ii) price dynamics are largely determined by market supply and demand factors including the price of sugar, ethanol exports, and composition of vehicle fleet. Furthermore, the impacts of demand factors such as ethanol exports are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs in the vehicle fleet. - Highlights: • The relative prices of ethanol and gasoline in Brazil exhibit strong mean-reversion. • The fuel price dynamics are mainly influenced by supply and demand factors. • The impacts of demand factors are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs

  13. Price caps and price floors in climate policy: a quantitative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, Cedric

    2008-12-15

    This study assesses the long-term economic and environmental effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical climate change mitigation architecture, which aims to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. Based on abatement costs in IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms what qualitative analyses have already suggested: introducing price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. With price caps, the expected costs could be reduced by about 50% and the uncertainty on economic costs could be one order of magnitude lower. Reducing economic uncertainties may spur the adoption of more ambitious policies by helping to alleviate policy makers' concerns of economic risks. Meanwhile, price floors would reduce the level of emissions beyond the objective if the abatement costs ended up lower than forecasted. If caps and floors are commensurate with the ambition of the policy pursued and combined with slightly tightened emission objectives, climatic results could be on average similar to those achieved with 'straight' objectives (i.e. with no cost-containment mechanism). (auth)

  14. Pricing of payment cards, competition, and efficiency : A possible guide for SEPA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, Wilko; Schmiedel, Heiko

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes equilibrium pricing of payment cards and welfare consequences of payment card competition. In particular, we model competition between debit and credit cards. The paper argues that optimal consumer and merchant fees must take safety, income uncertainty, default risk, and the

  15. Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

    2010-01-01

    We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

  16. Price models for oil derivates in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemac, F.; Saver, A.

    1995-01-01

    In Slovenia, a law is currently applied according to which any change in the price of oil derivatives is subject to the Governmental approval. Following the target of getting closer to the European Union, the necessity has arisen of finding ways for the introduction of liberalization or automated approach to price modifications depending on oscillations of oil derivative prices on the world market and the rate of exchange of the American dollar. It is for this reason that at the Agency for Energy Restructuring we made a study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development regarding this issue. We analysed the possible models for the formation of oil derivative prices for Slovenia. Based on the assessment of experiences of primarily the west European countries, we proposed three models for the price formation for Slovenia. In future, it is expected that the Government of the Republic of Slovenia will make a selection of one of the proposed models to be followed by enforcement of price liberalization. The paper presents two representative models for price formation as used in Austria and Portugal. In the continuation the authors analyse the application of three models that they find suitable for the use in Slovenia. (author)

  17. Duopoly price competition on markets with agricultural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Prášilová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A situation, in which two firms compete, is in the economic theory described by duopoly models. Market equilibrium on the duopoly market is formed in a reciprocal adjustment process of market prices and materialized market opportunities. The goal of the analysis is to find out whether the agricultural products market is significantly influenced by appearance of duopolies, what form they have and if they can fundamentally influence the price level of food. That food chain stores endeavour to mutually adapt food product prices is generally known; it is set especially by the inelastic demand for the mentioned goods on the side of consumers, i.e., by the need to demand basic food. Duopoly reactions to price competition in food chain stores are particularly strong in the case of commodities of milk and tomatoes, where the reactions and approximation of prices can be clearly seen. Based on statistical research it is obvious that the reactions are most reflected on sales of the food chain stores Billa and Albert. To identify specific reactions of price duopoly at retail chains the ANOVA statistical method was used. The firm’s duopoly behaviour as such on the food market need not be a subject for applying punishment from the antimonopoly bureau, if it does not have the cartel agreement character. An example can be the identical potato prices inquiry in the supermarkets of food chain stores.

  18. Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saenz de Miera, Gonzalo [Department of Public Economics, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Campus de Cantoblanco, Madrid 28049 (Spain); del Rio Gonzalez, Pablo [Institute for Public Policies, Centro de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales, CSIC, C/Albasanz 26-28, 28037 Madrid (Spain); Vizcaino, Ignacio [Iberdrola, C/Tomas Redondo, 1, Madrid 28033 (Spain)

    2008-09-15

    It is sometimes argued that renewables are 'expensive'. However, although it is generally true that the private costs of renewable electricity generation are certainly above those of conventional electricity, that statement fails to consider the social benefits provided by electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E), including environmental and socioeconomic ones. This paper empirically analyses an additional albeit usually neglected benefit: the reduction in the wholesale price of electricity as a result of more RES-E generation being fed into the grid. The case of wind generation in Spain shows that this reduction is greater than the increase in the costs for the consumers arising from the RES-E support scheme (the feed-in tariffs), which are charged to the final consumer. Therefore, a net reduction in the retail electricity price results, which is positive from a consumer point of view. This provides an additional argument for RES-E support and contradicts one of the usual arguments against RES-E deployment: the excessive burden on the consumer. (author)

  19. Incentives in Supply Function Equilibrium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vetter, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    The author analyses delegation in homogenous duopoly under the assumption that the firm-managers compete in supply functions. In supply function equilibrium, managers’ decisions are strategic complements. This reverses earlier findings in that the author finds that owners give managers incentives...... to act in an accommodating way. As a result, optimal delegation reduces per-firm output and increases profits to above-Cournot profits. Moreover, in supply function equilibrium the mode of competition is endogenous. This means that the author avoids results that are sensitive with respect to assuming...

  20. Dynamic Pricing and Supply Coordination with Reimbursement Contract under Random Yield and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamic pricing and supply chain coordination in a decentralized system that consists of one supplier and one manufacturer, in which both the market demand and production yield are stochastic. We show that the centralized expected profit is jointly concave in the production quantity and order quantity when the price is ex-ante selected. We also derive the equilibrium strategies in the decentralized system and prove that the entire profit of supply chain is inevitably lower than that under centralized system. Based on this, we propose a reimbursement contract to coordinate the decentralized supply chain so as to achieve the maximized profit. It is worth mentioning that, under reimbursement contract, the equilibrium production and order quantities are irrelevant to the manufacturer's risk sharing coefficient but are only determined by the supplier’s risk sharing coefficient.

  1. A market power model with price caps and compact DC power flow constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). School of Industrial Engineering

    2003-05-01

    This paper presents a spatial gaming model with price caps for deregulated electricity markets. There has been heated debate on price caps that have been enforced in deregulated electricity markets. Opponents argue that price caps may send wrong economic signals while advocates argue that price caps are good for damping market power. This paper does not intend to take a stand in the argument. Given the fact that price caps are enforced in several deregulated regional electricity markets in the US, a logical step is to reflect this reality in gaining modeling. However, current gaining models have not included any price cap formulation. This paper is the first one to address the issue. DC power flow equations are used for representing the spatial nature of an electrical network. An algorithm is proposed to find a generalized Nash equilibrium under the enforcement of price caps based on the Kuhn-Tucker Vector Optimization Theorem. Case studies show the successful application of the model. The conclusion is that market power impact can be reduced under appropriate price caps. (author)

  2. Nash equilibrium strategy in the deregulated power industry and comparing its lost welfare with Iran wholesale electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, Seyed Hosein; Nazemi, Ali; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

    2016-09-01

    With the increasing use of different types of auctions in market designing, modeling of participants' behaviors to evaluate the market structure is one of the main discussions in the studies related to the deregulated power industries. In this article, we apply an approach of the optimal bidding behavior to the Iran wholesale electricity market as a restructured electric power industry and model how the participants of the market bid in the spot electricity market. The problem is formulated analytically using the Nash equilibrium concept composed of large numbers of players having discrete and very large strategy spaces. Then, we compute and draw supply curve of the competitive market in which all generators' proposed prices are equal to their marginal costs and supply curve of the real market in which the pricing mechanism is pay-as-bid. We finally calculate the lost welfare or inefficiency of the Nash equilibrium and the real market by comparing their supply curves with the competitive curve. We examine 3 cases on November 24 (2 cases) and July 24 (1 case), 2012. It is observed that in the Nash equilibrium on November 24 and demand of 23,487 MW, there are 212 allowed plants for the first case (plants are allowed to choose any quantity of generation except one of them that should be equal to maximum Power) and the economic efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 2.77 times as much as the real market. In addition, there are 184 allowed plants for the second case (plants should offer their maximum power with different prices) and the efficiency or social welfare of Nash equilibrium is 3.6 times as much as the real market. On July 24 and demand of 42,421 MW, all 370 plants should generate maximum energy due to the high electricity demand that the economic efficiency or social welfare of the Nash equilibrium is about 2 times as much as the real market.

  3. Drilling rates and expected oil prices: The own price elasticity of US oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Gruen, W.; Montesi, R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper evaluates the feasibility of policies to increase exploration and development by the oil industry. To do so, the authors estimate a new model for well completions in the United States that includes the effect of price expectations from survey data, that separates exploratory from development wells, and that uses a deflator based on the cost of drilling a well. The regression results indicate that the price elasticity of drilling is considerably smaller than previous estimates. When combined with recent analyses of drilling success, the results indicate that the own price elasticity of US oil supply is relatively small. The low price elasticity of supply indicates that efforts to increase domestic oil supplies by increasing well completions may be more expensive than believed previously

  4. Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roumasset, J.; Isaak, D.; Fesharaki, F.

    1983-07-01

    The rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power. This paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as efficiency prices) which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits. The theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted. The model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history. These simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 to 1980 can be explained as a response to supply-side changes, especially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s. Thus, while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s, relative to extraction costs, it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible. This situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels. In early 1982, even spot prices, already below official prices, were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level. On the other hand, efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs. Thus, even if the price-setting power of OPEC were eroded by competition, the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974. 18 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

  5. Effects of interruptible load program on equilibrium outcomes of electricity markets with wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Xuena; Zhang, Shaohua; Li, Xue [Shanghai Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Power Station Automation Technology

    2013-07-01

    High wind power penetration presents a lot of challenges to the flexibility and reliability of power system operation. In this environment, various demand response (DR) programs have got much attention. As an effective measure of demand response programs, interruptible load (IL) programs have been widely used in electricity markets. This paper addresses the problem of impacts of the IL programs on the equilibrium outcomes of electricity wholesale markets with wind power. A Cournot equilibrium model of wholesale markets with wind power is presented, in which IL programs is included by a market demand model. The introduction of the IL programs leads to a non-smooth equilibrium problem. To solve this equilibrium problem, a novel solution method is proposed. Numerical examples show that IL programs can lower market price and its volatility significantly, facilitate the integration of wind power.

  6. Global economic activity and crude oil prices. A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yanan; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity. The Kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity. Based on a supply-demand framework and the cointegration theory, we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the Kilian economic index and a trade weighted US dollar index, and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the Kilian economic index through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run impacts. We also develop an empirically stable, data-coherent and single-equation error-correction model (ECM) which has sensible economic properties. Empirical results based on the ECM show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the Kilian economic index is a relatively drawn-out process. (author)

  7. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  8. Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milani, Fabio [Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-5100 (United States)

    2009-11-15

    This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

  9. Expectations, learning, and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, Fabio

    2009-01-01

    This paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables. The oil price, through the role of oil in production and consumption, affects aggregate demand and supply in the model. The assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning. Oil prices, therefore, affect the economy through an additional channel, i.e. through their effect on the formation of agents' beliefs. The estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents' perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time: oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s, but only milder effects after the mid-1980s. Since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation, the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. In the estimated model, in fact, the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008. Therefore, through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs, the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation. (author)

  10. Equitable Prices of Single-Source Drugs in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngorsuraches, Surachat; Chaiyakan, Kanokkan

    2015-08-01

    In Thailand, total drug expenditure has grown rapidly. Recently, the Thai government has addressed the issue of drug pricing, but the prices of single-source drugs remain a major challenge. To examine equitable prices of single-source drugs in Thailand. A total of 98 single-source and high-expenditure drugs were examined. Unit prices from the Drug and Medical Supplies Information Center (DMSIC) and National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC) were used to represent drug prices at the provider level in Thailand and the U.S., respectively. Data for measuring drug affordability, e.g., dose and poverty line, were obtained from Micromedex online and the National Statistical Office (NSO). The U.S. drug prices were adjusted by the Human Development Index (HDI) to be equitable prices for Thailand. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) was used to convert US currency into Thai baht. All prices in this study were based on the year 2012. Catastrophic, Impoverishment, and WHO/Health Action International (HAI) approaches were used to determine Thai citizens' ability to afford the study drugs. Finally, uncertainty analyses were conducted. From all study drugs, 55 single-source drugs were priced higher than their equitable prices, ranging from 0.38 to 422.36% higher. Among these, 28 items were antineoplastic drugs. The prices of drugs outside the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), as well as the country's newer drugs, tended to be higher than their calculated equitable prices. The majority of drugs in Thailand priced higher than equitable prices were unaffordable for most Thai citizens. The uncertainty analyses revealed that almost all results were relatively robust. Most single-source drug prices in Thailand were higher than their equitable prices, and were likely to be unaffordable to Thai citizens.

  11. High oil prices: A non-OPEC capacity game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, Petter; Asche, Frank; Misund, Baard; Mohn, Klaus

    2005-08-01

    The current high oil price is partly due to low investments in the oil industry the last decade. According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE, for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, the demand for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Thus, we have experienced an unusual combination of high oil prices and low investment levels in exploration and development. In many ways, the oil companies' focus on RoACE, at the expense of reserve replacement, resembles an implicit co-ordination on low capacity among non-OPEC petroleum producers. This is a partial explanation of the current high oil prices. By examining actual parameters used by the financial markets in pricing of oil companies, we address the issue of whether the low investment outcome could represent a long-term equilibrium. This is hardly likely, as oil companies are made aware that stronger emphasis is put on reserve replacement. (Author)

  12. ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE AND PRICE RISK ON RICE PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Opeyemi Eyitayo Ayinde

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available  Nigeria, like most African countries, has engaged in agricultural liberalization since 1986 in the hope that reforms emphasizing price incentives will encourage producers to respond. Thus far, the reforms seem to have introduced greater uncertainty into the market given increasing rates of price volatility. This study amongst other things therefore seeks to determine and model the responsiveness of rice supply to price risk in Nigeria. Statistical information on domestic and imported quantities of rice was obtained for 41 years (1970 to 2011 from various sources, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO database, Federal Ministry of Agriculture statistical bulletins, Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and National Bureau of Statistic (NBS. Data were analyzed using equilibrium output supply function, co-integration models, and vector autoregressive distributed lag model. Rice importation was statistically significant and changes in output were also responsive to changes in price. The results indicate that producers are more responsive not only to price and non-price factor but also to price risk and exchange rate. It is therefore imperative to reduce the effects of price risk as to increase the response of producer to supply by bridging the gap in production

  13. Equilibrium in Securities Markets with Heterogeneous Investors and Unspanned Income Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper; Munk, Claus

    -free rate (and the expected stock return) is lower in the economy with unspanned income risk due to an increased demand for precautionary savings. The reduction in the risk-free rate is highest when the more risk-averse investors face the largest unspanned income risk. In numerical examples with reasonable......We provide the first closed-form solution for the equilibrium risk-free rate and the equilibrium stock price in a continuous-time economy with heterogeneous investor preferences and unspanned income risk. We show that lowering the fraction of income risk spanned by the market produces a lower...... equilibrium risk-free rate and a lower stock market Sharpe ratio, partly due to changes in the aggregate consumption dynamics. If we fix the aggregate consumption dynamics, the Sharpe ratio is the same as in an otherwise identical representative agent economy in which all risks are spanned, whereas the risk...

  14. Modeling of geographical pricing: A game analysis of siberian fuel costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivushina, Anastasiya; Kombu, Anchy; Ryumkin, Valeriy

    2017-11-01

    In the present study, we propose a novel game-theoretic pricing model describing the interaction between producers and retailers of goods in conditions of poor transport infrastructure and sparse geographical distribution of the points of sale. The proposed model generalizes the Stackelberg leadership model for an arbitrary number of leaders and followers. We show that the model always has a Nash and Stackelberg equilibria. We also provide formulas for the equilibrium prices and volume of sales. As an example we model diesel pricing in south Siberia. Our model found no signs of a cartel. The results of this paper can be used by policymakers to inform market regulations aimed at promoting free competition and avoiding monopolies in production and retail of goods.

  15. Prices and risks for flexible mechanisms on the international markets; Priser og risici pae internationale markeder for de fleksible mekanismer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, J. [Copenhagen Economics Aps, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this report is to calculate the expected equilibrium prices on flexible mechanisms in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) and the equilibrium prices on the EU quota trading market in the period 2005-2007. The calculation will combined with additional information be used for evaluating to what extend it is socio-economic recommendable to use flexible mechanisms in the Danish climate strategy. The calculations are made by means of Copenhagen Economics' climate model, CECM, which has been extended with a module performing Monte-Carlo simulations. The report concludes, that before the budget period (2005-2007) the principal element of uncertainty for price fixing will be the individual country's ambition to reduce CO{sub 2}-emissions before the commitment to the Kyoto Protocol. Whether it is socio-economic recommendable to use flexible mechanisms before the budget period is primarily dependent on the expectations to future prices of the flexible mechanisms. (ba)

  16. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  17. European CO2 prices and carbon capture investments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abadie, Luis M.; Chamorro, Jose M.

    2008-01-01

    We assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant operating in a carbon-constrained environment. We consider two sources of risk, namely the price of emission allowance and the price of the electricity output. First we analyse the performance of the EU market for CO 2 emission allowances. Specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period (2008 to 2012) and calibrate the underlying parameters of the allowance price process. Then we refer to the Spanish wholesale electricity market and calibrate the parameters of the electricity price process. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice to derive the optimal investment rule. In particular, we obtain the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the effect of changes in several variables on these critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, immediate installation does not seem justified from a financial point of view. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically, carbon capture technology undergoes significant improvements, and/or a specific governmental policy to promote these units is adopted. (author)

  18. Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matar, Walid; Murphy, Frederic; Pierru, Axel; Rioux, Bertrand

    2015-01-01

    Using a multi-sector equilibrium model of the Saudi energy system that handles administered prices in a mixed-complementarity formulation, we present results from a set of policy scenarios that lower oil consumption in the country. Some of these scenarios are the solutions to Mathematical Programs subject to Equilibrium Constraints (MPECs) that maximize the net economic gain for the Saudi economy. The policies examined have the potential to generate economic gains exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011, or about 4% of Saudi Arabia's GDP. This economic gain comes mainly from inter-sectoral fuel pricing policies that incent shifting the mix in technologies that generate electricity and produce water from energy intensive technologies to more efficient ones. We show that when complemented by credits for investments in solar and nuclear power generation capacities, a modest increase in the transfer prices of fuels among sectors is sufficient to produce economic gains close to those achieved by deregulating transfer prices. The approach we develop here is an alternative to the classic recommendation of deregulating inter-sectoral fuel prices in situations where the conditions for successful liberalized markets do not exist. It is a template for introducing the notions of incentivizing behavior using prices into countries that rely more on administrative procedures than markets, leading to a deeper understanding of how markets can lead to economic gain. - Highlights: • The policies examined would have potentially generated economic gains exceeding 23 billion USD in 2011. • We design policies that produce economic benefits close to those achieved by deregulating inter-sectoral fuel prices. • This paper provides a template for building multi-sector models when transfer prices between sectors are administered

  19. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis-an application to oil prices in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Thomas C., E-mail: tcj@transport.dtu.d [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2010-01-15

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn.

  20. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Thomas C. [Department of Transport, Danish Technical University, Bygningstorvet 116 Vest, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Moeller, Flemming [National Environmental Research Institute, Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

    2010-01-15

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

  1. Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis. An application to oil prices in the transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, Thomas C.; Moeller, Flemming

    2010-01-01

    This paper contains a tentative suggestion of how to take into account the value of changes in price volatility in real world cost-benefit analyses. Price volatility is an important aspect of security of supply which first of all concerns physical availability, but assuming that consumers are risk averse, security of supply can also be viewed as a matter of avoiding oscillations in consumption originating from volatile prices of for instance oil. When the government makes transport-related choices on behalf of the consumers, the effect on oscillations in general consumption should be included in the policy assessment taking into account the most significant correlations between prices of alternative fuels and between fuel prices and consumption in general. In the present paper, a method of valuing changes in price volatility based on portfolio theory is applied to some very simple transport-related examples. They indicate that including the value of changes in price volatility often makes very little difference to the results of cost-benefit analyses, but more work has to be done on quantifying, among other things, consumers' risk aversion and the background standard deviation in total consumption before firm conclusions can be drawn. (author)

  2. Energy, economy and equity interactions in a CGE [Computable General Equilibrium] model for Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naqvi, Farzana

    1997-01-01

    In the last three decades, Computable General Equilibrium modelling has emerged as an established field of applied economics. This book presents a CGE model developed for Pakistan with the hope that it will lay down a foundation for application of general equilibrium modelling for policy formation in Pakistan. As the country is being driven swiftly to become an open market economy, it becomes vital to found out the policy measures that can foster the objectives of economic planning, such as social equity, with the minimum loss of the efficiency gains from the open market resource allocations. It is not possible to build a model for practical use that can do justice to all sectors of the economy in modelling of their peculiar features. The CGE model developed in this book focuses on the energy sector. Energy is considered as one of the basic needs and an essential input to economic growth. Hence, energy policy has multiple criteria to meet. In this book, a case study has been carried out to analyse energy pricing policy in Pakistan using this CGE model of energy, economy and equity interactions. Hence, the book also demonstrates how researchers can model the fine details of one sector given the core structure of a CGE model. (UK)

  3. Spatial price transmission in Pakistan: The Case of Wheat and Rice Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, U. I.; Iqbal, M. A.; Rizwan, M.; Ying, L.; Bashir, M. K.; Iqbal, M. M.; Qamar, M. R.; Nazeer, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the spatial price transmission among major wheat and rice markets of Pakistan using their monthly retail prices. For analysis Vector Error Correction Model and Co-integration approach were employed. Results showed that wheat and rice market prices are integrated. Some markets have positive or negative transmission shocks on each other due to the different geographical locations and transport infrastructure. All the wheat markets are adjusted to price changes in the long run equilibrium except few markets. Unidirectional and bidirectional causality exists between wheat and rice markets. Bad and poor infrastructure is a major impediment to price transmission among the markets. These market imperfections lead to food insecurity in the country. Government should formulate better policies and develop infrastructure towards better and efficient market function. The results of this study will help the policy makers to formulate a better policy to enhance marketing function to overcome food insecurity situation. (author)

  4. The Compensative Effects of Tobacco Leaf Price Changes on Tax Revenue in China

    OpenAIRE

    Cai, Hailong; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2009-01-01

    Tobacco production in China is influenced by a government-set procurement price for tobacco leaf, and an excise tax on tobacco leaf revenue. This study examines the increase in the procurement price needed to keep tax revenue constant in the face of a 50% reduction in the tax rate. This “compensative effect” is important because reductions in the tax rate are contemplated and tobacco tax revenue is a major source of funding for rural communities. Based on an equilibrium-displacement model of ...

  5. Dynamic Pricing in Cloud Manufacturing Systems under Combined Effects of Consumer Structure, Negotiation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Peng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we proposed a game-theory based framework to model the dynamic pricing process in the cloud manufacturing (CMfg system. We considered a service provider (SP, a broker agent (BA, and a dynamic service demander (SD population that is composed of price takers and bargainers in this study. The pricing processes under linear demand and constant elasticity demand were modeled, respectively. The combined effects of SD population structure, negotiation, and demand forms on the SP’s and the BA’s equilibrium prices and expected revenues were examined. We found that the SP’s optimal wholesale price, the BA’s optimal reservation price, and posted price all increase with the proportion of price takers under linear demand but decrease with it under constant elasticity demand. We also found that the BA’s optimal reservation price increases with bargainers’ power no matter under what kind of demand. Through analyzing the participants’ revenues, we showed that a dynamic SD population with a high ratio of price takers would benefit the SP and the BA.

  6. Intangible Capital, Corporate Valuation and Asset Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Jin, Xiangrong

    2006-01-01

    Recent studies have found unmeasured intangible capital to be large and important. In this paper we observe that by nature intangible capital is also very different from physical capital. We find it plausible to argue that the accumulation process for intangible capital differs significantly from the process by which physical capital accumulates. We study the implications of this hypothesis for rational firm valuation and asset pricing using a two-sector general equilibrium model. Our main fi...

  7. GLOBAL TO DOMESTIC PRICE TRANSMISSION BETWEEN THE SEGMENTED CEREALS MARKETS: A STUDY OF AFGHAN RICE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najibullah Hassanzoy

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines cointegration and the difference in the extent of price transmission, and speed of adjustment between global and domestic prices of high and low quality rice. Unit root tests, cointegration tests and error correction models are employed in the analysis. While there are no comparable studies in the literature, the findings of this study indicate that the dynamics of price transmission may be different between high and low quality rice markets. That is, the extent of price transmission appears to be larger for the global prices of low quality rice whereas the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium may be faster for domestic prices of high quality rice. Moreover, a shock in the global prices of low quality rice may have a long-lasting effect on domestic prices of low quality rice as compared to their high quality counterparts affecting domestic prices of high quality rice.

  8. Peak load pricing lowers generation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lande, R.H.

    1980-01-01

    Before a utility implements peak load pricing for different classes of consumers, the costs and the benefits should be compared. The methodology described enables a utility to determine whether peak load pricing should be introduced for specific users. Cost-benefit analyses for domestic consumers and commercial/industrial consumers, showing break-even points are presented. (author)

  9. Priced Timed Automata:  Theory and Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2009-01-01

    Priced timed automata are emerging as useful formalisms for modeling and analysing a broad range of resource allocation problems. In this extended abstract, we highlight recent (un)deci\\-dability results related to priced timed automata as well as point to a number of open problems....

  10. The Physics of Traffic Congestion and Road Pricing in Transportation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, David

    2010-03-01

    This presentation develops congestion theory and congestion pricing theory from its micro- foundations, the interaction of two or more vehicles. Using game theory, with a two- player game it is shown that the emergence of congestion depends on the players' relative valuations of early arrival, late arrival, and journey delay. Congestion pricing can be used as a cooperation mechanism to minimize total costs (if returned to the players). The analysis is then extended to the case of the three- player game, which illustrates congestion as a negative externality imposed on players who do not themselves contribute to it. A multi-agent model of travelers competing to utilize a roadway in time and space is presented. To realize the spillover effect among travelers, N-player games are constructed in which the strategy set includes N+1 strategies. We solve the N-player game (for N = 7) and find Nash equilibria if they exist. This model is compared to the bottleneck model. The results of numerical simulation show that the two models yield identical results in terms of lowest total costs and marginal costs when a social optimum exists. Moving from temporal dynamics to spatial complexity, using consistent agent- based techniques, we model the decision-making processes of users and infrastructure owner/operators to explore the welfare consequence of price competition, capacity choice, and product differentiation on congested transportation networks. Component models include: (1) An agent-based travel demand model wherein each traveler has learning capabilities and unique characteristics (e.g. value of time); (2) Econometric facility provision cost models; and (3) Representations of road authorities making pricing and capacity decisions. Different from small-network equilibrium models in prior literature, this agent- based model is applicable to pricing and investment analyses on large complex networks. The subsequent economic analysis focuses on the source, evolution

  11. Price discrimination in two-sided markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The use of a price discrimination strategy is an important tool in competition. It can hurt firms and benefit consumers in a one-sided market. However, in two-sided markets, its primary goal is to attract more agents or increase profits. Here, the performance of a second-degree price discrimination strategy in the context of duopoly two-sided platforms is analysed. Two exogenous variables, which include the discount rate and the price discrimination threshold, are used in order to examine whether the price discrimination strategy could help two-sided platforms achieve their objective, which is to maximise their market value. Three cases are considered, and we demonstrate that the price discrimination strategy cannot attract more agents and at the same time increase the profits; a lower price discrimination threshold cannot ensure larger markets shares; a higher discount rate is detrimental to the profit of a platform. However, this is good for its market shares. Moreover, discriminative pricing increases the competition.

  12. Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market. Appendices; Investering og prisdannelse pae et liberaliseret elmarked. Bilag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2005-05-01

    How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. The appendix volume of the project report contains detailed descriptions of the three models that are used: the Balmorel model, the investment model, and the MARS model. The Balmorel model is a partial equilibrium model that describes a coherent, international electric power system and combined heat and power system. The model was developed in 2000 through international co-operation with the aim to have a model for analysing international aspects in the Baltic area. The investment model analyses and models the investment decisions in a liberalized Nordic electric power market. It is an exogenous model constructed outside the Balmorel model but uses the price pictures from the Balmorel model as input. MARS (MARket Simulation) is Eltra's (a Danish electric power transmission company) market model for simulating prices, production, demand and exchanges in the power market. The model covers the Nordic countries (Nord Pool) and Northern Germany. (LN)

  13. Comments on equilibrium, transient equilibrium, and secular equilibrium in serial radioactive decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prince, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    Equations describing serial radioactive decay are reviewed along with published descriptions or transient and secular equilibrium. It is shown that terms describing equilibrium are not used in the same way by various authors. Specific definitions are proposed; they suggest that secular equilibrium is a subset of transient equilibrium

  14. Organic vs. Non-Organic Food Products: Credence and Price Competition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the organic and non-organic production choices of two firms by considering customers’ trust in organic food products. In the context of customers’ possible willingness to pay a premium price and their mistrust in organic food products, two firms first make choices on offering organic and non-organic food products. If offering organic products, a firm can further invest in the credence system to increase customers’ trust in their organic products. At the final stage, two firms determine prices. We provide serval insights. First, we characterize the market conditions in which only one firm, both firms or neither firm will choose to offer organic food products. We find that the higher the production costs or credence investment costs for organic food products are, the more likely firms are to choose to produce non-organic food products. Second, if it is expensive enough to invest in organic credence, offering organic food products may still be uncompetitive, even if organic production cost appears to have no disadvantage compared to non-organic food products. Third, we highlight how the prices of organic food products in equilibrium are affected by market parameters. We show that when only one firm offers organic food products, this firm tends to offer a relatively low price if organic credence investment is expensive. Fourth, we highlight how one firm’s credence investment decision in equilibrium can be affected by the product type choice of the other firm. We find that the investment in organic credence is lower when both firms offer organic food products compared with the case when only one firm offers organic food products.

  15. Firm-specific impacts of CO_2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira da Silva, Patricia; Moreno, Blanca; Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    European Union carbon emissions allowances (EUA) price fluctuations can affect electricity companies' stock market values as these oscillations may change firms' profitability and thus investors' decisions. This outcome can differ not only contingent on the EU ETS Phase, but also on firms' generation mix. Moreover, stock markets may react differently to EUA increases in comparison to decreases, thus asymmetrically. By using daily data from January 2008 to July 2014, this article analyses long-run equilibrium relations and short-run interactions between the aggregated electricity industry stock market returns and EUA price changes. Moreover, we test if the relationship between EUA price variations and electricity stock returns is asymmetric and if the carbon price effect and the asymmetry are power firm-specific. Adding to earlier studies, we initially provide an inspection of the individual impact of EU ETS Phase II and on-going Phase III; followed by a comparative analysis between power firms which core activity relies on renewable energy sources and those whose sources are fundamentally non-renewable ones. A statistically significant positive long-run impact of EU ETS on the aggregated power sector stock market return is found concerning Phase II and works asymmetrically. Moreover, evidence is provided demonstrating that asymmetry and EUA effects are power firm-specific. - Highlights: •EU ETS impacts on stock market returns of Spanish power sector. •Long-run positive effect of EU ETS on market returns is found only in Phase II. •No short-run effects were found. •EUA price effect is company-specific.

  16. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  17. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  18. Dividend policy and share price volatility: UK evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Hussainey, Khaled; Mgbame, Chijoke Oscar; Chijoke Mgbame, Aruoriwo M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between dividend policy and share price changes in the UK stock market. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple regression analyses are used to explore the association between share price changes and both dividend yield and dividend payout ratio. Findings – A positive relation is found between dividend yield and stock price changes, and a negative relation between dividend payout ratio and stock price changes. In a...

  19. Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Sydny Fujita, K.

    2009-01-01

    Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

  20. Styring af international transfer pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuther, Peter; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    2011-01-01

    Nærværende artikel introducerer international transfer pricing, dels som et skatteretligt fænomen og dels som et værktøj til planlægning og økonomisk styring af koncernforbundne selskaber i en multinational virksomhed (MNV). Med udgangspunkt i en case-analyse af MNV’en gives der et konkret eksempel...... på hvordan transfer pricing håndteres i praksis. Artiklens formål er at give et praktisk eksempel på at transfer pricing handler om at efterleve regler, ikke omgå dem. På baggrund af case-analysen argumenteres der for, at såvel akademikere som praktikere bør tage virksomhedens tilgang til...... international transfer pricing i betragtning, når økonomiske styringssystemer i en MNV skal anvendes til planlægning og opfølgning....

  1. Do daily retail gasoline prices adjust asymmetrically?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettendorf, L.; van der Geest, S. A.; Kuper, G. H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004, taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out that the volatility

  2. Transfer Pricing Principles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dennis Ramsdahl

    Konferencebidraget indeholder en kritisk analyse af transfer pricing reglerne på henholdsvis moms og indkomstskatterettens område med henblik på en diskussion af, det er hensigtsmæssigt med en harmonisering af reglerne på tværs af de to retsområder...

  3. Beyond customer perception of price discrimination: A consumer behavior analysis and its implications on aviation revenue management

    OpenAIRE

    Kusch, Katharina

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess consumer behavior in the airline industry from a perspective beyond the effects of price discrimination. First the consequences of dynamic pricing will be assessed before looking at the role of social media and offline social influences, consumer satisfaction and airline equilibrium networks and their effects on consumer loyalty. Final implications on aviation revenue management will be drawn.

  4. Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romero, A.

    1992-01-01

    A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

  5. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  6. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle; Le prix du petrole et la conjoncture economique americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lescaroux, F

    2006-06-15

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  7. Equilibrium and non-equilibrium extraction separation of rare earth metals in presence of diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid in aqueous phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azis, Abdul; Teramoto, Masaaki; Matsuyama, Hideto.

    1995-01-01

    Equilibrium and non-equilibrium extraction separations of rare earth metals were carried out in the presence of chelating agent in the aqueous phase. The separation systems of the rare earth metal mixtures used were Y/Dy, Y/Ho, Y/Er and Y/Tm, and the chelating agent and the extractant were diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) and bis (2,4,4-trimethylpentyl) phosphinic acid (CYANEXR 272), respectively. For Y/Dy and Y/Ho systems, higher selectivities were obtained in equilibrium separation compared with those in non-equilibrium separation. On the other hand, the selectivities in non-equilibrium separation were higher for Y/Er and Y/Tm systems. In the separation condition suitable to each system, the addition of DTPA to the aqueous phase was found to be very effective for obtaining higher selectivities. The distribution ratios of the rare earth metals and the selectivities in the equilibrium separations obtained experimentally were thoroughly analyzed by considering various equilibria such as the extraction equilibrium and the complex formation equilibrium between rare earth metals and DTPA in the aqueous phase. Moreover, the extraction rates and the selectivities in the non-equilibrium separations were also analyzed by the extraction model considering the dissociation reactions of the rare earth metal-DTPA complexes in the aqueous stagnant layer. Based on these analyses, we presented an index which is useful for selecting the optimum operation mode. Using this index, we can predict that the selectivities under equilibrium conditions are higher than those under non-equilibrium conditions for Y/Dy and Y/Ho systems, while for Y/Er and Y/Tm systems, higher selectivities are obtained under non-equilibrium conditions. The experimental results were in agreement with predictions by this index. Further, the selectivities in various systems including other chelating agents and extractants were discussed based on this index. (J.P.N.)

  8. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  9. Distributional impacts of car road pricing. Settlement structures determine divergence across countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinowska, Dominika; Steininger, Karl W.

    2009-01-01

    Social questions of distribution and equity are of major importance for the political acceptance of car road pricing. The argument that kilometre-based private vehicle charging disadvantages the poor is often the core reason for opposing its introduction. An article in this journal [Steininger, K.W., Friedl, B., Gebetsroither, B., 2007. Sustainability impacts of car road pricing: a computable general equilibrium analysis for Austria. Ecological Economics 63, pp. 59-69] proved the opposite for one European country, i.e. that the rich bear most of the burden. In the present paper we use the very same model structure and apply it in a simulation to the data of another country. While macroeconomic and environmental conclusions are similar, we find a different distributional impact of car road pricing in our case. This issue is also of relevance in the analysis of the distributional implications concerning (recently significant) gasoline price increases. (author)

  10. Estimating Drug Costs: How do Manufacturer Net Prices Compare with Other Common US Price References?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, T Joseph; Levy, Joseph F; Slejko, Julia F; Onwudiwe, Nneka C; Perfetto, Eleanor M

    2018-05-12

    Drug costs are frequently estimated in economic analyses using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), but what is the best approach to develop these estimates? Pharmaceutical manufacturers recently released transparency reports disclosing net price increases after accounting for rebates and other discounts. Our objective was to determine whether manufacturer net prices (MNPs) could approximate the discounted prices observed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We compared the annual, average price discounts voluntarily reported by three pharmaceutical manufacturers with the VA price for specific products from each company. The top 10 drugs by total sales reported from company tax filings for 2016 were included. The discount observed by the VA was determined from each drug's list price, reported as WAC, in 2016. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the VA discount observed and a weighted price index was calculated using the lowest price to the VA (Weighted VA Index), which was compared with the manufacturer index. The discounted price as a percentage of the WAC ranged from 9 to 74%. All three indexes estimated by the average discount to the VA were at or below the manufacturer indexes (42 vs. 50% for Eli Lilly, 56 vs. 65% for Johnson & Johnson, and 59 vs. 59% for Merck). Manufacturer-reported average net prices may provide a close approximation of the average discounted price granted to the VA, suggesting they may be a useful proxy for the true pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or payer cost. However, individual discounts for products have wide variation, making a standard discount adjustment across multiple products less acceptable.

  11. Linking electricity prices and costs in bottom-up top-down coupling under changing market environments

    OpenAIRE

    Maire, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    Electricity market liberalization is altering pricing mechanisms in wholesale electricity markets, which will affect the effectiveness of climate and energy policies. Models used to simulate such policies must be responsive to pricing rules. We show how this can be done and simulate a tightening of climate and energy policies. We use a soft-coupled framework composed of a top-down dynamic computable general equilibrium model and a bottom-up dynamic electricity supply model. The first simulate...

  12. The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking

    OpenAIRE

    Hylton Hollander; Guangling Liu

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business cycle fluctuations, and highlights the equity price channel as a different aspect to general equilibrium models with financial frictions and, as a result, emphasizes the systemic influence of financial markets on the real economy. We develop a canonical New-Keynesian DSGE model with a tractable role for the equity market in banking, entrepreneur and household economic activities. The model is estimated with Bayesian technique...

  13. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

  14. Real-Time Pricing-Based Scheduling Strategy in Smart Grids: A Hierarchical Game Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a scheduling strategy based on real-time pricing in smart grids. A hierarchical game is employed to analyze the decision-making process of generators and consumers. We prove the existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium and utilize a backward induction method to obtain the generation and consumption strategies. Then, we propose two dynamic algorithms for the generators and consumers to search for the equilibrium in a distributed fashion. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheduling strategy can match supply with demand and shift load away from peak time.

  15. Environmental prices in the long term; Miljoepriser paa lang sikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    Economic analyses may undervalue important long-time environmental impacts of economic activities if the calculated price of the impacts are wrong. This report discusses how one may estimate the future calculated price of some environmental services. The term environmental service denotes something the presence or absence of which has an impact on the environment that can be valued. Thus, puffins, NOx emissions and suspended dust are all environmental services. The calculated price of an environmental service is the price used in socio-economic benefit-cost analyses. A calculation method is proposed and evaluated by application to such diverse environmental services as the stock of puffins, impregnated wood, NOx emissions and suspended dust. None of these services are priced in the market. The proposed method can be used to estimate the future prices of environmental services that are not priced in the market. The most important difficulties experienced with the method have been (1) how to find data for the increase in the supply of environmental services and (2) how to define environmental services in a satisfactory way. 29 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  16. Swedish district heating - owners, prices and profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Sofie; Werner, S.

    2001-01-01

    Owners, prices and profitability are examined in this report for 152 Swedish district heating companies during 1999. Only public information available has been used: Prices from a national annual consumer study, energy supplied, lengths of district heating pipes installed, and average prices for energy supplied. These companies are responsible for 96 % of all district heat supplied in Sweden. District heating systems owned by municipalities were responsible for 65 % of all district heat supply, while the share of power companies was 34 %. Other private owners accounted for 1 %. Only 12 % of the board members are women and more than 40 % of the companies have no woman in the board. The prices gathered by the annual consumer study are good estimates of the price level of district heating in Sweden. The average revenues are only 4,1 % lower than the effective average of prices gathered. Price of district heating decrease with size and market share. Use of combined heat and power plants decrease prices slightly. Lower prices with size can mainly be explained by lower energy supply costs. Calculated rates of return in relation to calculated replacement values increase slightly by size and are almost independent of age and market share. The purport of these conclusions is that the district heating companies share the cost reduction from size with their customers, while the whole benefit from high market shares is repaid to the customers. Calculated rates of return vary among the owner groups examined. Lower rates are accepted by municipalities, while power companies have higher rates at the average costs used. Total replacement costs for the 152 companies has been estimated to 89 billion Swedish crowns or 10 billion Euro. Only correlation analyses using one dimension have been used in this study. A higher degree of quality can be obtained by using multi-dimensional analyses

  17. Currency Inconvertibility, Portfolio Balance and Relative Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge Braga de Macedo

    1983-01-01

    This paper analyzes regimes of currency inconvertibility in the frame-work of a simple general equilibrium model where an officially-traded good,a smuggled good and a non-traded good are produced and consumed by residents,who hold domestic and foreign currency in their portfolios. It is shown that stability requires the effect of relative prices on demand for traded and non-traded goods to dominate their effect on asset demands and that a once-and-for-all devaluation does not change the curre...

  18. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  19. Real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China based on system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yongxiu; Zhang, Jixiang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The system dynamics is used to research the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Four kinds of the real-time electricity pricing models are carried out and simulated. • It analysed the electricity price, the user satisfaction and the social benefits under the different models. • Market pricing is the trend of the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Initial development path of the real-time price mechanism for China is designed between 2015 and 2030. - Abstract: As an important means of demand-side response, the reasonable formulation of the electricity price mechanism will have an important impact on the balance between the supply and demand of electric power. With the introduction of Chinese intelligence apparatus and the rapid development of smart grids, real-time electricity pricing, as the frontier electricity pricing mechanism in the smart grid, will have great significance on the promotion of energy conservation and the improvement of the total social surplus. From the perspective of system dynamics, this paper studies different real-time electricity pricing mechanisms based on load structure, cost structure and bidding and analyses the situation of user satisfaction and the total social surplus under different pricing mechanisms. Finally, through the comparative analysis of examples under different real-time pricing scenarios, this paper aims to explore and design the future dynamic real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China, predicts the dynamic real-time pricing level and provides a reference for real-time electricity price promotion in the future

  20. A Dynamic Programming Approach for Pricing Weather Derivatives under Issuer Default Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Karl Härdle

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contingent claims with payoff based on a pre-specified weather index. Firms exposed to weather risk can transfer it to financial markets via weather derivatives. We develop a utility-based model for pricing baskets of weather derivatives under default risk on the issuer side in over-the-counter markets. In our model, agents maximise the expected utility of their terminal wealth, while they dynamically rebalance their weather portfolios over a finite investment horizon. Using dynamic programming approach, we obtain semi-closed forms for the equilibrium prices of weather derivatives and for the optimal strategies of the agents. We give an example on how to price rainfall derivatives on selected stations in China in the universe of a financial investor and a weather exposed crop insurer.

  1. Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment. Evidence from an emerging market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dogrul, H. Guensel; Soytas, Ugur

    2010-01-01

    While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices, namely energy (crude oil) and capital (real interest rate) in an emerging market, Turkey for the period 2005:01-2009:08. Applying a relatively new technique, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run. This finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy. (author)

  2. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  3. Existence and computation of equilibria of first-price auctions with integral valuations and bids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Escamocher, Guillaume; Miltersen, Peter Bro; Santillan, Rocio

    2009-01-01

    We consider existence and computation of symmetric Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium (PSNE) in single-item, sealed-bid, first-price auctions with integral valuations and bids. For the most general case, we show that existence of PSNE is NP-hard. Then, we present algorithmic results for the case...

  4. Analysis of equilibrium about bidding strategy of suppliers with future contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Zhiqiang; Liu, Dong; Jiang, Chuanwen

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the supply function model is employed to simulate the bidding strategy of suppliers in the power pool, and models of the supply function with future contracts are presented. It is proved that only one of the parameters between slope and intercept of the bidding curve is an independent variable in order to achieve definite equilibrium. In the meantime, the equilibria of the bidding strategy about suppliers are studied when different intercepts of the bidding curve are chosen. Some examples are employed to study the Nash equilibrium strategies of suppliers with different future contracts in various bidding strategy models. The results show that the equilibria are different in different bidding strategy models, but the future contracts can effectively make spot prices decrease in all the models

  5. Improving and optimising road pricing in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Larsen, Marie Karen

    2008-01-01

    though quite a number of proposed charging systems have been examined only a few pricing strategies have been investigated. This paper deals with the optimisation of different designs for a road pricing system in the Greater Copenhagen area with respect to temporal and spatial differentiation......The question whether to introduce toll rings or road pricing in Copenhagen has been discussed intensively during the last 10 years. The main results of previous analyses are that none of the systems would make a positive contribution at present, when considered from a socio-economic view. Even...... of the pricing levels. A detailed transport model was used to describe the demand effects. The model was based on data from a real test of road pricing on 500 car drivers. The paper compares the price systems with regard to traffic effects and generalised costs for users and society. It is shown how important...

  6. Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

  7. Product price control using game theory: A case study of a fish price in the state of Terengganu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiih, L. Muhamad; Afiq, R. Mohd Noor

    2014-07-01

    The increase in the price of goods is often a concern among the community. This is caused by factors that beyond of controlled such as a natural disaster, and others that cause the demand exceed the current supply. However, what is more concerning is the increase in price of goods due to the individual who raises the price in order to earn higher profits. Therefore, to overcome this problem, a method of price controls using Game Theory is considered. The Game Theory realizing a form of observational on the action and effects that occur by an individual or group to maximize the utilization under certain circumstances. The study was conducted on prices of 14 fish commodities in the state of Terengganu and also to see the cooperation effect between players of commodity prices. Data were analysed by using the software Gambit. The result shows that there is significant increase due to the influence of middlemen. The findings also shows that the price controls are applied at a set time, then it was applied to other times, prices are more stable and profitable returns to all parties can be maximized.

  8. Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettendorf, L.; Van der Geest, S.A.; Varkevisser, M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 to 2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on Dutch consumer costs is negligible

  9. ECONOMICAL PLANS EFFECTS ON CHARCOAL PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luiz Pereira Rezende

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy is essential for human needs satisfaction. With the evolution of machinery, man becomes more and more dependent on the energy stocked in fossil fuels, comparatively to the primitive economy. Wood charcoal is a thermal-reducer used in Brazilian pig iron and steel industries, and its price is formed in an oligopsonic market. Over time, the charcoal prices have varied in function of endogenous and exogenous factors, needing, therefore, to be deflated so that they can be compared in two or more points in time. This work analyzed the variations of charcoal real prices, in national currency; compared and analyzed the real charcoal price in nominal and in real US Dollar and; analyzed the real prices of charcoal, comparatively to the real oil prices. The analyses were accomplished in the period from January 1975 to December 2002. The time series of charcoal prices, in domestic currency were deflated using IGP-DI, considering august, 1994=100, and charcoal prices were also converted to American dollar and deflated using CPI, considering the period 1982-84=100. It was compared, then, the real and nominal charcoal prices. It concluded that the real charcoal prices in Brazilian domestic currency, or in American dollar, presented a decreasing tendency along time. The inflationary disarray, in the 80´s and the first half of the 90 ´s, provoked a big price variation in the period; from the beginning the XXI century, charcoal prices were more influenced by the exchange rate; in the energy crisis period, charcoal prices suffered big changes that, however, did not persist along time.

  10. Equilibrium Droplets on Deformable Substrates: Equilibrium Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koursari, Nektaria; Ahmed, Gulraiz; Starov, Victor M

    2018-05-15

    Equilibrium conditions of droplets on deformable substrates are investigated, and it is proven using Jacobi's sufficient condition that the obtained solutions really provide equilibrium profiles of both the droplet and the deformed support. At the equilibrium, the excess free energy of the system should have a minimum value, which means that both necessary and sufficient conditions of the minimum should be fulfilled. Only in this case, the obtained profiles provide the minimum of the excess free energy. The necessary condition of the equilibrium means that the first variation of the excess free energy should vanish, and the second variation should be positive. Unfortunately, the mentioned two conditions are not the proof that the obtained profiles correspond to the minimum of the excess free energy and they could not be. It is necessary to check whether the sufficient condition of the equilibrium (Jacobi's condition) is satisfied. To the best of our knowledge Jacobi's condition has never been verified for any already published equilibrium profiles of both the droplet and the deformable substrate. A simple model of the equilibrium droplet on the deformable substrate is considered, and it is shown that the deduced profiles of the equilibrium droplet and deformable substrate satisfy the Jacobi's condition, that is, really provide the minimum to the excess free energy of the system. To simplify calculations, a simplified linear disjoining/conjoining pressure isotherm is adopted for the calculations. It is shown that both necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibrium are satisfied. For the first time, validity of the Jacobi's condition is verified. The latter proves that the developed model really provides (i) the minimum of the excess free energy of the system droplet/deformable substrate and (ii) equilibrium profiles of both the droplet and the deformable substrate.

  11. Is the corporate loan market globally integrated? a pricing puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Mark S. Carey; Gregory P. Nini

    2004-01-01

    We offer evidence that interest rate spreads on syndicated loans to corporate borrowers are economically significantly smaller in Europe than in the U.S., other things equal. Differences in borrower, loan and lender characteristics associated with equilibrium mechanisms suggested in the literature do not appear to explain the phenomenon. Borrowers overwhelmingly issue in their natural home market and bank portfolios display significant home "bias." This may explain why pricing discrepancies a...

  12. Market structure and credit card pricing: what drives the interchange?

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu Wang

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a model for the credit card industry, where oligopolistic card networks price their products in a complex marketplace with competing payment instruments, rational consumers/merchants, and competitive card issuers/acquirers. The analysis suggests that card networks demand higher interchange fees to maximize card issuers' profits as card payments become more efficient. At equilibrium, consumer rewards and card transaction volume also increase, while consumer surplus and merc...

  13. A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Bosco; Lucia Parisio; Matteo Pelagatti; Fabio Baldi

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electrici...

  14. Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

    2007-03-01

    This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

  15. Grain price spikes and beggar-thy-neighbor policy responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Anderson, Kym

    2017-01-01

    When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with that terms of trade change. Several recent analyses...

  16. The effects of agricultural trade openness on food price transmission in Latin American countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Insa Flachsbarth

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Trade of agricultural commodities has grown significantly in most Latin American countries (LAC over the last two decades. However, after the international food price surges in 2006-08 and 2011-12 concerns about food access of the poor arose. Within a panel framework containing six LAC (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, we used a single equation error correction model to identify possible cointegrating relationships between the food consumer price index (CPI and a set of trade related and domestic variables. The main focus of the study was to examine how different levels of trade openness impact international food price transmission to domestic markets. Our results confirm that deeper market integration increases global price transmission elasticities. In other words, more agricultural trade openness proves to elevate food CPIs during global price spikes. Thus, for poor consumers world price shocks can be deteriorating in the short-run and domestic food prices will slowly converge to a higher long-run equilibrium. Especially in increasingly integrated economies, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. We also found that exchange rate appreciations can buffer price shocks to a certain extent and that monetary policies seem to be an appropriate means for stabilizing food prices to safeguard food access of the poor population.

  17. Revealing patterns of cultural transmission from frequency data: equilibrium and non-equilibrium assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crema, Enrico R.; Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen

    2016-12-01

    A long tradition of cultural evolutionary studies has developed a rich repertoire of mathematical models of social learning. Early studies have laid the foundation of more recent endeavours to infer patterns of cultural transmission from observed frequencies of a variety of cultural data, from decorative motifs on potsherds to baby names and musical preferences. While this wide range of applications provides an opportunity for the development of generalisable analytical workflows, archaeological data present new questions and challenges that require further methodological and theoretical discussion. Here we examine the decorative motifs of Neolithic pottery from an archaeological assemblage in Western Germany, and argue that the widely used (and relatively undiscussed) assumption that observed frequencies are the result of a system in equilibrium conditions is unwarranted, and can lead to incorrect conclusions. We analyse our data with a simulation-based inferential framework that can overcome some of the intrinsic limitations in archaeological data, as well as handle both equilibrium conditions and instances where the mode of cultural transmission is time-variant. Results suggest that none of the models examined can produce the observed pattern under equilibrium conditions, and suggest. instead temporal shifts in the patterns of cultural transmission.

  18. Price computation in electricity auctions with complex rules: An analysis of investment signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vazquez, Carlos; Hallack, Michelle; Vazquez, Miguel

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses the problem of defining marginal costs when integer variables are present, in the context of short-term power auctions. Most of the proposals for price computation existing in the literature are concerned with short-term competitive equilibrium (generators should not be willing to change the dispatch assigned to them by the auctioneer), which implies operational-cost recovery for all of the generators accepted in the auction. However, this is in general not enough to choose between the different pricing schemes. We propose to include an additional criterion in order to discriminate among different pricing schemes: prices have to be also signals for generation expansion. Using this condition, we arrive to a single solution to the problem of defining prices, where they are computed as the shadow prices of the balance equations in a linear version of the unit commitment problem. Importantly, not every linearization of the unit commitment is valid; we develop the conditions for this linear model to provide adequate investment signals. Compared to other proposals in the literature, our results provide a strong motivation for the pricing scheme and a simple method for price computation. - Highlights: • Pricing proposals in power markets often deal with just accounting-cost recovery. • Including opportunity costs is an additional property required for efficient pricing. • We develop a framework to analyze the pricing proposals found in the literature. • We propose a pricing mechanism to include the costs of short-run integer decisions. • As it includes short-run opportunity costs, it provides efficient long-term signals.

  19. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle; Le prix du petrole et la conjoncture economique americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lescaroux, F

    2006-06-15

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  20. Price variation of tomatoes and ginger in Giwa Market, Kaduna State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study analysed price of tomatoes and ginger in Giwa market, Kaduna State to identify seasonal price patterns and their expected changes over time. The analytical approach in this study was based on the price multiplicative model. The study based preliminary on secondary data collected from NAERLS weekly ...

  1. Market Integration Dynamics and Asymptotic Price Convergence in Distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. García-Hiernaux (Alfredo); D.E. Guerrero (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we analyse the market integration process of the relative price distribution, develop a model to analyze market integration, and present a formal test of increasing market integration. We distinguish between the economic concepts of price convergence in mean and in

  2. Tariff Impact on the Domestic Price of Vegetable Oil in Iran and the Associated Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    omid gilanpour

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study uses vector error correction model to examine the effects of oilseeds, crude oil and vegetable oil tariffs on vegetable oil consumer price. Monthly data sets for the years 2004-2013 and VAR and VECM models were applied for this study. Research findings indicates only a long term equilibrium relation between the study variables .The effect of vegetable oil tariffs on consumer and producer price index are 0.4 and 0.07, respectively. Furthermore, one percent increase in the oil seeds and crude oil tariff, will increase consumer prices by 2.35, 0.19percent. The huge gap between the impacts of the two tariffs –e.g. oilseeds and crude oil tariffs- on consumer price shows that oil industries work with low efficiency. This practically doubles the impact of tariff on consumers. Accordingly, structural reform in the oil industry can develop oil production and prevent additional burden upon the consumer price.

  3. The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Lin; Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Shanying

    2016-01-01

    Crude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro-economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation.

  4. Effectiveness of unit-based pricing of waste in the Netherlands: Applying a general equilibrium model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Beukering, P.J.H.; Bartelings, H.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Oosterhuis, F.H.

    2009-01-01

    Differential and variable rates (DVR) in waste collection charging give a price incentive to households to reduce their waste and increase recycling. International empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness of DVR schemes, with limited unwanted side effects. In the Netherlands, currently some 20%

  5. Effectiveness of unit-based pricing of waste in the Netherlands: applying a general equilibrium model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukering, van P.J.H.; Bartelings, H.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Oosterhuis, F.H.

    2009-01-01

    Differential and variable rates (DVR) in waste collection charging give a price incentive to households to reduce their waste and increase recycling. International empirical evidence confirms the effectiveness of DVR schemes, with limited unwanted side effects. In the Netherlands, currently some 20%

  6. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  7. Motor fuel prices in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdogdu, Erkan

    2014-01-01

    The world's most expensive motor fuel (gasoline, diesel and LPG) is sold most likely in the Republic of Turkey. This paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in Turkey. First of all, the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices, namely motor fuel taxes in Turkey. Then, it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in Turkey using an econometric analysis. The findings indicate that motor fuel demand in Turkey is quite inelastic and, therefore, not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre-tax prices or taxes. Therefore, fuel market in Turkey is open to opportunistic behavior by firms (through excessive profits) and the government (through excessive taxes). Besides, the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities, including the pattern of passenger transportation, motorization rate, fuel use, total kilometers traveled and CO 2 emissions from road transportation. The impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in Turkey and Turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study. - Highlights: • The key issues (e.g. taxes) related to motor fuel prices in Turkey are explored. • Their impact on transport activities and income distribution is also investigated. • An econometric analysis is performed to estimate motor fuel demand in Turkey. • Motor fuel demand in Turkey is found to be quite inelastic. • Turkish fuel market is open to opportunistic behavior by firms and the government

  8. Thermodynamic chemical energy transfer mechanisms of non-equilibrium, quasi-equilibrium, and equilibrium chemical reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Heui-Seol

    2015-01-01

    Chemical energy transfer mechanisms at finite temperature are explored by a chemical energy transfer theory which is capable of investigating various chemical mechanisms of non-equilibrium, quasi-equilibrium, and equilibrium. Gibbs energy fluxes are obtained as a function of chemical potential, time, and displacement. Diffusion, convection, internal convection, and internal equilibrium chemical energy fluxes are demonstrated. The theory reveals that there are chemical energy flux gaps and broken discrete symmetries at the activation chemical potential, time, and displacement. The statistical, thermodynamic theory is the unification of diffusion and internal convection chemical reactions which reduces to the non-equilibrium generalization beyond the quasi-equilibrium theories of migration and diffusion processes. The relationship between kinetic theories of chemical and electrochemical reactions is also explored. The theory is applied to explore non-equilibrium chemical reactions as an illustration. Three variable separation constants indicate particle number constants and play key roles in describing the distinct chemical reaction mechanisms. The kinetics of chemical energy transfer accounts for the four control mechanisms of chemical reactions such as activation, concentration, transition, and film chemical reactions. - Highlights: • Chemical energy transfer theory is proposed for non-, quasi-, and equilibrium. • Gibbs energy fluxes are expressed by chemical potential, time, and displacement. • Relationship between chemical and electrochemical reactions is discussed. • Theory is applied to explore nonequilibrium energy transfer in chemical reactions. • Kinetics of non-equilibrium chemical reactions shows the four control mechanisms

  9. Higher cigarette prices influence cigarette purchase patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyland, A; Bauer, J E; Li, Q; Abrams, S M; Higbee, C; Peppone, L; Cummings, K M

    2005-04-01

    To examine cigarette purchasing patterns of current smokers and to determine the effects of cigarette price on use of cheaper sources, discount/generic cigarettes, and coupons. Higher cigarette prices result in decreased cigarette consumption, but price sensitive smokers may seek lower priced or tax-free cigarette sources, especially if they are readily available. This price avoidance behaviour costs states excise tax money and dampens the health impact of higher cigarette prices. Telephone survey data from 3602 US smokers who were originally in the COMMIT (community intervention trial for smoking cessation) study were analysed to assess cigarette purchase patterns, use of discount/generic cigarettes, and use of coupons. 59% reported engaging in a high price avoidance strategy, including 34% who regularly purchase from a low or untaxed venue, 28% who smoke a discount/generic cigarette brand, and 18% who report using cigarette coupons more frequently that they did five years ago. The report of engaging in a price avoidance strategy was associated with living within 40 miles of a state or Indian reservation with lower cigarette excise taxes, higher average cigarette consumption, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, and female sex. Data from this study indicate that most smokers are price sensitive and seek out measures to purchase less expensive cigarettes, which may decrease future cessation efforts.

  10. Prices of petroleum decreased, but only awhile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debnar, M.

    2003-01-01

    Development of world prices of petroleum of first six months of 2003 is analysed. The influence of oil production in Iraq on oil world price is discussed. Considerations of representatives of various countries about the possibility of using Euro as currency for oil are presented. OPEC representatives stated that they are not thinking about accounting in another currency as US dollars for the time being. (Author)

  11. Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

  12. 7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  13. 7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  14. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  15. Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettendorf, Leon; Geest, Stephanie A. van der; Varkevisser, Marco

    2003-01-01

    This article analyses the retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996-2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using these two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the Dutch consumer costs is negligible. (Author)

  16. Can elliptical galaxies be equilibrium systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caimmi, R [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Astronomia

    1980-08-01

    This paper deals with the question of whether elliptical galaxies can be considered as equilibrium systems (i.e., the gravitational + centrifugal potential is constant on the external surface). We find that equilibrium models such as Emden-Chandrasekhar polytropes and Roche polytropes with n = 0 can account for the main part of observations relative to the ratio of maximum rotational velocity to central velocity dispersion in elliptical systems. More complex models involving, for example, massive halos could lead to a more complete agreement. Models that are a good fit to the observed data are characterized by an inner component (where most of the mass is concentrated) and a low-density outer component. A comparison is performed between some theoretical density distributions and the density distribution observed by Young et al. (1978) in NGC 4473, but a number of limitations must be adopted. Alternative models, such as triaxial oblate non-equilibrium configurations with coaxial shells, involve a number of problems which are briefly discussed. We conclude that spheroidal oblate models describing elliptical galaxies cannot be ruled out until new analyses relative to more refined theoretical equilibrium models (involving, for example, massive halos) and more detailed observations are performed.

  17. Effect of firm variables on patent price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyam Sreekumaran Nair

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, using singleton patent auction price data from Ocean Tomo, LLC, we analyse the effect of firm variables on patent price. Patents owned by small firms attract higher price than patents owned by large firms, if they engage in multi-country filings. The patents owned by small firms get cited more than the patents owned by large firms. The patents owned by individual inventors attract a higher price than the patents owned by organisations when multi-country filings are not included. We believe that the lack of resources is preventing individual inventors from engaging in multi-country filings and maximising the revenue from their invention. A larger representative data should be used to replicate the results before generalising it.

  18. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  19. The price impact of block transactions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Abe; Marra, Teye; van Beusichem, Herman Clasinus

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the authors analyse the stock price effects of block transactions and the disclosure thereof for Dutch firms. The authors measure a significant positive price effect for block purchases directly around the transaction date, but not for block sales. The authors do not measure a

  20. On a Boltzmann-type price formation model

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis A.; Markowich, Peter A.; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  1. On a Boltzmann-type price formation model

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2013-06-26

    In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. Airport Pricing Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pels, Eric; Verhoef, Erik T.

    2003-01-01

    Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various

  3. Exchange Rate – Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Khim-Sen Liew; Chee-Keong Choong; Evan Lau; Kian-Ping Lim

    2005-01-01

    The finding of exchange rate–relative price nonlinear cointegration relationship in Malaysia, among others, suggests that nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) equilibrium may be regarded as reference point in judging the short run misalignment of the Ringgit currency and thereby deducing effective policy actions. Moreover, economists who wish to extend the simple PPP exchange rate model into the more complicated monetary exchange models may do so comfortably, at least in the text of Malays...

  4. Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

    2012-02-01

    Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

  5. The reform of accounting standards and audit pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the reform of accounting standards in China in 2007 and investigates its impact on equilibrium pricing in the audit market. We find that the concentration of the audit market and the probability of issuing modified audit opinions do not significantly change, but that audit fees increase significantly after the adoption of the new accounting standards in China. Deeper analysis suggests that (1 the implementation of the new IFRS-based Chinese Accounting Standards (CASs has increased the market risk faced by listed firms and thus auditors’ expected audit risk, causing an increase in audit fees, and (2 the degree of the increase in audit fees is positively related to the adjusted difference between net income according to the old CAS before 2007 and the new CAS after 2007. We thus conclude that the reform has had a significant impact on audit pricing in China.

  6. Financial structure signalling to auditors` pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etumudon Ndidi ASIEN

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines capital structure signalling to auditors. Financial structure has adverse selection that can negatively affect auditors’ perception of firm value or risk, which can lead the auditor to charge high price. We expect firms’ financial structure to positively relate with auditors’ pricing. Using panel data analysis methodology to analyse data of 311 firm-year observations of non-finance firms covering the period 2012-2015, pooled OLS regression results suggest that financial structure is positively related to auditors’ price. We find that equity, but not debt, is significantly related to auditors’ price. These results hold after controlling for auditor type. The positive relations suggest lower perceptions of firm value (hence high risk by auditors, thereby making firms to pay higher auditors’ price. This suggests that auditors penalise equity financed firms more than debt financed firms, probably because auditors interpret equity financing as firms’ inability to raise debt. Based on the findings, we recommend that auditors should monitor the capital structure of their clients to guide them in pricing their services. We also recommend that corporate finance managers should rebalance their firms’ capital structure cognisant of the fact that it signals to auditors.

  7. Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

  8. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  9. Measuring the Effects of Generic Dairy Advertising in a Multi-Market Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph V. Balagtas; Sounghun Kim

    2007-01-01

    We develop a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that allows demand linkages across downstream product markets, and supply linkages through the common use of a raw commodity as the key input. Applying the model to the dairy sector, we find that the effectiveness of producer-funded advertising depends on the demand relationships across dairy product markets (cross-price and cross-advertising elasticities) as well as the reallocation of milk toward the advertised market. We show that th...

  10. Price-signals and long term equilibrium. Reconsidering the organisation of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, Dominique; Defeuilley, Christophe; Marty, Frederic

    2009-11-01

    The purpose of this article is to show that the reform of the electricity sector, based on a framework of interpretation in which the short-term/long-term articulation is made by the market price, does not result in an efficient result in terms of investment. After a presentation of a bibliographical review on investment in an uncertain context, the authors present a model of decentralised electricity markets which backs reforms. They highlight issues related to production investment which remain unresolved, and which may result in socially inefficient choices on the long term. They report an analysis of two solutions of industrial organisations, long term contracts and vertical and horizontal integration, which could solve these problems

  11. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  12. Price regulation in the Spanish energy sectors: who benefits?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arocena, Pablo; Contin, Ignacio; Huerta, Emilio

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the distribution of benefits between firms and consumers due to the price regulation of the Spanish energy sectors (electricity, oil fuels and gas) during the decade 1987-1997. To that effect, we compare the actual evolution of energy prices with alternate benchmarks in order to assess the potential existence of a pro-industry or a pro-consumer bias in the pricing policies followed by the regulator. Our results show a pro-industry-biased regulatory context, where consumers benefited very little from price control. The successive price adjustments over time allowed the companies to keep all the productivity gains and cost reductions and to increase their profitability rates relative to those achieved in the manufacturing sector. (Author)

  13. Price regulation in the Spanish energy sectors: who benefits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arocena, Pablo; Contin, Ignacio; Huerta, Emilio [Departamento de Gestion de Empresas, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia. 31006, Pamplona (Spain); [Canterbury Business School, University of Kent Canterbury (United Kingdom)

    2002-08-01

    This paper analyses the distribution of benefits between firms and consumers due to the price regulation of the Spanish energy sectors (electricity, oil fuels and gas) during the decade 1987-1997. To that effect, we compare the actual evolution of energy prices with alternate benchmarks in order to assess the potential existence of a pro-industry or a pro-consumer bias in the pricing policies followed by the regulator. Our results show a pro-industry-biased regulatory context, where consumers benefited very little from price control. The successive price adjustments over time allowed the companies to keep all the productivity gains and cost reductions and to increase their profitability rates relative to those achieved in the manufacturing sector. (Author)

  14. Globalization and the price decline of illicit drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa Storti, Cláudia; De Grauwe, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This study aims at understanding the mechanisms underlying the dramatic decline of the retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin during the past two decades. It also aims at analysing the implications of this decline for drug policies. We use a theoretical model to identify the possible causes of this price decline. This allows us to formulate the hypothesis that the major driving force behind the price decline is a reduction of the intermediation margin (the difference between the retail and producer prices). We also develop the hypothesis that globalization has been an important factor behind the decline of the intermediation margin. We then analyse the statistical information to test these hypotheses. We find that the decline in the retail prices of drugs is related to the strong decline in the intermediation margin in the drug business, and that globalization is the main driving force behind this phenomenon. Globalization has done so by increasing the efficiency of the distribution of drugs, by reducing the risk premium involved in dealing with drugs, and by increasing the degree of competition in the drug markets. We conclude that the cocaine and heroin price declines were due to a sharp fall in the intermediation margin, which was probably influenced by globalization. This phenomenon might have a strong impact on the effectiveness of drug policies, increasing the relative effectiveness of policies aiming at reducing the demand of drugs.

  15. Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China's housing market fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xing-Chun; He, Ling-Yun

    2015-08-01

    There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China's housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China's economy stabilization. 1. Investment refers to fixed capital investment. 2. Housing price refers to national average housing price. Quarterly data on housing price during the period of our work are not directly available. However, monthly data of the value of sales on housing and sale volume on housing can be directly obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. We add up the monthly data and calculate one quarter's housing price by dividing the value of housing sales by its sale volume in one quarter. 3. M2 means the broad money supply in China.

  16. The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doroodian, K.; Boyd, Roy

    2003-01-01

    This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected form raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors

  17. The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doroodian, K.; Boyd, R.

    2003-01-01

    This study examines whether oil price shocks are inflationary in the US. We increase the price of oil in the year 2000 in a manner consistent with the oil price shock of 1973-74 and let the economy experience a Hicksian technological change. Then using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we conduct our analyses under two separate cases: (1) regular economic growth, and (2) low economic growth. We also run three technological scenarios: (1) no technology change, (2) technological advances in the manufacturing and refining sectors, and (3) technological advances in the manufacturing, refining, chemical, and service sectors. The effects of these changes are analyzed over the next 20 years until the year 2020. Our results suggest that while a shock of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s will have a fairly severe effect on such things as gasoline and refinery prices, the aggregate price changes will be largely dissipated over time at the aggregate level. Furthermore, the aggregate level of prices (CPI and PPI) will fall over time as the level of technological advances rise under both growth scenarios. There are several reasons why we would obtain such results. First of all, the structure of the US economy has changed remarkably since the early 1970s. Rather than being a manufacturing based economy, the US is largely a service based economy today and hence it is more protected from raw materials shortages. Second, the economy has had a steady history of strong growth and the faster an economy grows the quicker disruptions to that economy are dissipated. Finally, our economy is experiencing rapid technological advances in information systems which have served to reduce costs and maintain output in a wide number of economic sectors.(author)

  18. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  19. Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobinaite, Viktorija; Juozapaviciene, Aldona; Staniewski, Marcin; Szczepankowski, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this article is to better understand the processes of electricity market price formation in Poland and Lithuania through an analysis of the features (volatility and spikes) of Lithuanian and Polish day-ahead electricity market prices and to assess how acquired electricity price features could affect the achievement of the main goals of the national energy policy. The following indicators have been calculated to determine electricity market price volatility: the oscillation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, an adjusted coefficient of variation, the standard deviation indicator, the daily velocity indicator (based on the overall average price) and the daily velocity indicator (based on the daily average price). Critical values for electricity market price have been calculated to evaluate price spikes. This analysis reveals that electricity market-price volatility is moderate in Poland and high in Lithuania. Electricity price spikes have been an observable phenomenon both in Lithuanian and in Polish day-ahead electricity markets, but they are more common in Lithuania, encompassing 3.15% of the time period analysed in Poland and 4.68% of the time period analysed in Lithuania. Volatile, spiking and increasing electricity prices in day-ahead electricity markets in Lithuania and Poland create preconditions and substantiate the relevance of implementation of the national energy policies and measures. - Highlights: • Moderate and seasonal volatility. • spiking market price and. • stable average price

  20. The gain from improved market efficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejrnæs, Mette; Persson, Karl Gunnar

    2010-01-01

    demand as well as excess supply, which triggered off the tâtonnement process. Over time, adjustments to equilibrium, as measured by the half-life of a shock, became faster and violations of the law of one price become smaller. There were significant gains from improved market efficiency, which took place......This article looks at the gains from improved market efficiency in long-distance grain trade in the second half of the nineteenth century, when violations of the law of one price were reduced due to improved information transmission. Two markets, a major export centre, Chicago, and a major importer......, Liverpool, are analysed. We show that the law of one price equilibrium was an ‘attractor equilibrium'. The implication is that prices converged to that equilibrium in a tâtonnement process. Because of asymmetrically timed information between markets separated by long distances there were periods of excess...

  1. Pricing as a means of controlling alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Anurag; Sinha, Kompal; Vandenberg, Brian

    2017-09-01

    Reducing the affordability of alcohol, by increasing its price, is the most effective strategy for controlling alcohol consumption and reducing harm. We review meta-analyses and systematic reviews of alcohol tax/price effects from the past decade, and recent evaluations of tax/price policies in the UK, Canada and Australia. While the magnitudes of price effects vary by sub-group and alcoholic beverage type, it has been consistently shown that price increases lead to reductions in alcohol consumption. There remains, however, a lack of consensus on the most appropriate taxation and pricing policy in many countries because of concerns about effects by different consumption level and income level and disagreement on policy design between parts of the alcoholic beverage industries. Recent developments in the research highlight the importance of obtaining accurate alcohol price data, reducing bias in estimating price responsiveness, and examining the impact on the heaviest drinkers. There is a need for further research focusing on the substitution effects of taxation and pricing policies, estimation of the true tax pass-through rates, and empirical analysis of the supply-side response (from alcohol producers and retailers) to various alcohol pricing strategies. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  2. Oil price shocks: Sectoral and dynamic adjustments in a small-open developed and oil-exporting economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dissou, Yazid

    2010-01-01

    The recent uptrend in oil prices represents both an opportunity and a challenge for small-open developed and oil-exporting countries. Using Canada as a study case and in contrast to most studies that use aggregate models, this paper employs a multi-sector, intertemporal general equilibrium model to provide perspectives on the sectoral, aggregate and dynamic adjustments of a sustained increase in oil prices. It highlights the transmission channels through which the rise in oil prices affects the domestic economy. The simulation results suggest that the shock would have positive aggregate impacts, but would also spur the reallocation of resources and would therefore induce disparities in sectoral adjustments. The suggested contraction in some industries could not however be attributed to a pure Dutch disease phenomenon because of, among other factors, the cost-push effect induced by the increase in oil prices.

  3. Research on Urban Road Congestion Pricing Strategy Considering Carbon Dioxide Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yitian Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Congestion pricing strategy has been recognized as an effective countermeasure in the practical field of urban traffic congestion mitigation. In this paper, a bi-level programming model considering carbon dioxide emission is proposed to mitigate traffic congestion and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The objective function of the upper level model is to minimize the sum of travel costs and the carbon dioxide emissions costs. The lower level is a multi-modal transportation network equilibrium model. To solve the model, the method of successive averages (MSA and the shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA are introduced. The proposed method and algorithm are tested through the numerical example. The results show that the proposed congestion pricing strategy can mitigate traffic congestion and reduce carbon emissions effectively.

  4. Relating price strategies and price-setting practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Lans, van der I.A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose - This article addresses the relationship between price strategies and price-setting practices. The first derive from a normative tradition in the pricing literature and the latter from a descriptive tradition. Price strategies are visible in the market, whereas price-setting practices are

  5. Modelling price determination in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available South Africa has been faced with high inflation rates since the early 1970s. Despite continued monetary discipline the inflation target has not yet been met, highlighting South Africa’s price-vulnerability as a small open emerging economy and raising questions about the efficiency of monetary policy. The objectives of this paper are: (i to analyse the influence of monetary policy on inflation in the small open emerging economy of South Africa, (ii to highlight the channels other than monetary policy through which inflation can be influenced (iii to analyse the influence of international prices and the exchange rate on inflation, (iv to determine the role of the labour market on inflation, especially through wage-push dynamics and (v to determine the role of demand-pull factors on inflation.

  6. Analysis of Cryptocurrencies Price Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Lansky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cryptocurrencies are a type of digital currencies based on cryptography principles. Cryptocurrencies are a unique combination of three characteristics: they provide anonymity, they are independent of central authority and they provide protection from double spending attack. The aim of this paper is to capture trends in the area of significant cryptocurrencies price developments and to explain their causes. The current research in this area is exclusively limited to an analysis of the price developments of the most important Bitcoin cryptocurrency; our research is the first to focus on other cryptocurrencies too. The economic perspective on cryptocurrencies is based on IT knowledge regarding the principles of their functioning. We have created a database of prices of 1278 cryptocurrencies from 2013 to 2016. This database is publicly available. To analyse the data, SQL query language was used.

  7. Relative Pricing of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewczyn, Nicholas Stephen

    In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative pricing to variant pricing and market capitalization. The study's base theory was Pan's efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of security price prediction of market prices versus model prices. The data from the financial statements of 16 publicly traded U.S. electric utility companies were analyzed via correlations and multiple regression analyses to determine securities pricing and suitability. The findings from the analyses of the sample's variables of market price, book value, market-to-book, and study constructed variables from those variable data were statistically significant. The alternate hypotheses were accepted for all 5 research questions since the analytical operationalization of the hypothetical constructs led to significant relationships. Results suggest that the use of more pricing determinants in securities evaluation may lead to investors losing less money and earning the expected returns for a more efficient capital market, leading to a stronger economy and macroeconomic stability.

  8. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  9. Pharmaceutical policies: effects of reference pricing, other pricing, and purchasing policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta, Angela; Ciapponi, Agustín; Aaserud, Morten; Vietto, Valeria; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Kösters, Jan Peter; Vacca, Claudia; Machado, Manuel; Diaz Ayala, Diana Hazbeydy; Oxman, Andrew D

    2014-10-16

    , healthcare utilisation and health outcomes or costs (expenditures); the study had to be a randomised trial, non-randomised trial, interrupted time series (ITS), repeated measures (RM) study or a controlled before-after study of a pharmaceutical pricing or purchasing policy for a large jurisdiction or system of care. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Results were summarised in tables. There were too few comparisons with similar outcomes across studies to allow for meta-analysis or meaningful exploration of heterogeneity. We included 18 studies (seven identified in the update): 17 of reference pricing, one of which also assessed maximum prices, and one of index pricing. None of the studies were trials. All included studies used ITS or RM analyses. The quality of the evidence was low or very low for all outcomes. Three reference pricing studies reported cumulative drug expenditures at one year after the transition period. Two studies reported the median relative insurer's cumulative expenditures, on both reference drugs and cost share drugs, of -18%, ranging from -36% to 3%. The third study reported relative insurer's cumulative expenditures on total market of -1.5%. Four reference pricing studies reported median relative insurer's expenditures on both reference drugs and cost share drugs of -10%, ranging from -53% to 4% at one year after the transition period. Four reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of 15% in reference drugs prescriptions at one year (range -14% to 166%). Three reference pricing studies reported a median relative change of -39% in cost share drugs prescriptions at one year (range -87% to -17%). One study of index pricing reported a relative change of 55% (95% CI 11% to 98%) in the use of generic drugs and -43% relative change (95% CI -67% to -18%) in brand drugs at six months after the transition period. The same study reported a price change of -5.3% and -1.1% for generic and brand drugs

  10. Splitting the EU ETS. Strengthening the scheme by differentiating its sectoral carbon prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sijm, J.P.M.; Wetzels, W.; Koutstaal, P.R. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U. [Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-05-15

    The current EU ETS faces a dilemma. To induce low-carbon investments in the power sector, higher carbon prices are needed, while low carbon prices are needed to reduce the risk of carbon leakage and loss of industrial competitiveness. This study analyses the effects and implications of two alternative policy options to address this price dilemma, i.e. (1) splitting the ETS into two separated sector regimes: one more ambitious regime with a relatively high carbon price for the power sector and a less ambitious regime with a relatively low carbon price for the other sectors covered by the EU ETS (called 'industry'), and (2) imposing a carbon tax on power sector emissions additional to a single ETS carbon price for both industry and the power sector. The study uses modelling scenarios and qualitative assessments to analyse the effects and implications of these policy options. It concludes that, in a world with unequal carbon prices, there is a case for differentiating ETS sectoral carbon prices and that the first-best option to achieve this differentiation is to impose a carbon tax on power sector emissions additional to a single ETS carbon price.

  11. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  12. 7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  13. 7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  14. 7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  15. 7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  16. 7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  17. 7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  18. 7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  19. 7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  20. 7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  1. 7 CFR 1033.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.50 Section 1033.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  2. 7 CFR 1005.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.50 Section 1005.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  3. 7 CFR 1001.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.50 Section 1001.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  4. 7 CFR 1006.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.50 Section 1006.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  5. 7 CFR 1126.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.50 Section 1126.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  6. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  7. 7 CFR 1131.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.50 Section 1131.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  8. 7 CFR 1007.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.50 Section 1007.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

  9. Price transmission in the trans-atlantic northern shrimp value chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Staahl, Lisa

    2018-01-01

    affect northern shrimp fisheries. In this paper, price transmission in the trans-Atlantic northern shrimp value chain is analysed using a Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form. Cointegration, the Law of One Price (LOP) and weak exogeneity are tested. The results reveal linkages from......Recent research has found that markets for farmed shrimp and wild-caught northern shrimp in Europe are integrated, indicating that northern shrimp prices are affected by total supply and demand of shrimp. Thus, the continued growth of global aquaculture production and associated price decline...

  10. 7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

  11. Stocks’ pricing dynamics and behavioral finance: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh Chandra Sinha

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In a brief review of the literature on stocks’ pricing, the study shows that information vis-à-vis noise serves critical roles in the equilibrium process. It is dynamic in nature and there are different infiltrating aspects from the standard finance to behavioral finance points of views. The aspects of market efficiency, fundamental risk, noise traders’ risk, and implementation costs make the stock markets noisy and thereby, limit the arbitrage opportunity of informed traders. Investors’ psychological bases viz., belief and preferences contribute more in the equilibrium process. Beliefs include representativeness, conservativeness, and anchoring, availability biases, optimism and wishful thinking, overconfidence, and herd behavior tendency on the part of the investors. On the preferences, investors are influenced by disposition effect, prospects based on reference points, mental accounting, ambiguity aversion, and self control.The study explores the empirical literature also and reviews the six puzzles in the standard finance. Finally, the work identifies a few research gaps to be addressed in the literature.

  12. Does oil move equity prices? A global view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandha, Mohan; Faff, Robert

    2008-01-01

    Many studies indicate that oil price shocks have an adverse effect on real output and, hence, an adverse effect on corporate profits where oil is used as a key input. The present study examines whether and to what extent the adverse effect of oil price shocks impacts stock market returns. To this end we, analyse 35 DataStream global industry indices for the period from April 1983 to September 2005. Our findings indicate that oil price rises have a negative impact on equity returns for all sectors except mining, and oil and gas industries. Generally, these results are consistent with economic theory and evidence provided by previous empirical studies. Little evidence of any asymmetry is detected in the oil price sensitivities. In light of our findings, we recommend that international portfolio investors consider hedging oil price risk. (author)

  13. A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing HE; Xikang CHEN; Yong SHI

    2006-01-01

    China is experiencing from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological construction, water conservancy management, etc.The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese government. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multiperiod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources.First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holding-output table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity.Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.

  14. Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

    When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

  15. Decrease of oil prices: economic boom, ecologic challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saussay, Aurelien; Guillou, Antoine; Boissel, Charles

    2015-01-01

    After having outlined how oil price collapse changes the economic deal, the authors analyse the determining factors of this collapse: slowing demand, exceeding supply, financialization of oil markets, no decision of reduction of production by the OPEC, decision by major companies to postpone investments rather than to re-balance short-term supply, production adjustment related to shale oil production. The second part analyses and discusses the economic consequences of oil price collapse: immediate impact on the French economy (reduction of the energy bill, different effects on the different economic actors, main related risks), economic scenarios on a medium term (contribution of models of macro-economic balance, possible economic growth of 0.4 due to oil price reduction, uncertain behaviour of economic actors, risk of deflation). In the third part, the authors make some proposals aimed at adapting the economy in order to take advantage of oil price reduction: to support energy transition with a required reform of energy taxing (for example for automotive fuels), to invest associated savings in energy transition and in transport infrastructure, to help households and companies in their energy transition

  16. Cross subsidy removal in electricity pricing in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy; Ganguly, Amrita

    2017-01-01

    In India electricity price for agriculture is cross subsidized by the industries. The Indian government has started a process through which the extent of cross subsidization is gradually being reduced. The idea is to replace the cross subsidization by 2030 and introduce a rate structure that will increase with the amount of electricity usage. This paper uses the Computable General Equilibrium framework to evaluate the ex-ante impact of these policy changes on the Indian economy. The paper finds that removal of cross subsidies will increase inflation particularly food inflation resulting in a decline in household incomes more so in rural areas. Replacing cross subsidies with a progressive rate structure will compensate for only a small part of the negative effects of the removal of cross subsidies. Four other policy options are also investigated targeting household incomes, food inflation and general inflation. Most of these options do not work as the required increase in budget deficit is unlikely to be bearable to the government. The only feasible option appears to be a direct price subsidy to agricultural sector: in this case food prices are held down, inflation is moderate and effect on household incomes is minimal. - Highlights: • Removal of cross subsidies in electricity sector will increase inflation in India. • Different policy options are investigated targeting household incomes, food inflation and general inflation. • Feasible option appears to be a direct price subsidy to agricultural sector.

  17. The influence of the PFI on waste management pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This report analyses the pricing mechanisms generated within the waste management sector under the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and compares them with the cost-plus pricing mechanisms. The background to the research is traced, and the influence of the PFI on service procurement, the incentives to use PFI, the procurement process, and the allocation of contractual risk are discussed. The PFI pricing mechanisms are described, and a case study of a hypothetical local authority involved in the tender for integrated waste management services is created to illustrate the pricing mechanisms under the PFI, comparisons with traditional pricing, and a quantitative analysis. A non-PFI model, a PFI 20 year model, and PFI 25 year model are presented in the appendix

  18. The influence of the PFI on waste management pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This report analyses the pricing mechanisms generated within the waste management sector under the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and compares them with the cost-plus pricing mechanisms. The background to the research is traced, and the influence of the PFI on service procurement, the incentives to use PFI, the procurement process, and the allocation of contractual risk are discussed. The PFI pricing mechanisms are described, and a case study of a hypothetical local authority involved in the tender for integrated waste management services is created to illustrate the pricing mechanisms under the PFI, comparisons with traditional pricing, and a quantitative analysis. A non-PFI model, a PFI 20 year model, and PFI 25 year model are presented in the appendix.

  19. A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

  20. The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, Paer; Newbery, David

    2010-01-01

    The supply function equilibrium provides a game-theoretic model of strategic bidding in oligopolistic wholesale electricity auctions. This paper presents an intuitive account of current understanding and shows how welfare losses depend on the number of firms in the market and their asymmetry. Previous results and general recommendations for divisible-good/multi-unit auctions provides guidance on the design of the auction format, setting the reservation price, the rationing rule, and restrictions on the offer curves in wholesale electricity auctions. (author)

  1. Cotton Trade Liberalizations and Domestic Agricultural Policy Reforms: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Suwen; Fadiga, Mohamadou L.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Welch, Mark

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzed the effects of trade liberalizing reforms in the world cotton market using a partial equilibrium model. The simulation results indicated that a removal of domestic subsidies and border tariffs for cotton would increase the amount of world cotton trade by an average of 4% in the next five years and world cotton prices by an average of 12% over the same time horizon. The findings indicated that under the liberalization policy, the United States would lose part of its export ...

  2. Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P

    2012-12-01

    Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gohin, A.; Chantret, F.

    2010-01-01

    The world prices of some food and energy products have followed similar large swings in recent years. We investigate the long-run relationship between these prices using a world Computable General Equilibrium model with detailed representations of food and energy markets. Particular attention is paid to specifying macro-economic linkages which have often been overlooked in recent analysis and debate. We find that the omission of these macro-economic linkages has a substantial bearing on this relationship. A positive relationship due to the cost push effect has been identified in most analysis, but we find that the introduction of the real income effect may indeed imply a negative relationship between world food and energy prices.

  4. Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Michael D. Noel

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

  5. The world market for soybeans: price transmission into Brazil and effects from the timing of crop and trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederico A. Turolla

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the price transmission in the world market for soybeans using time series econometrics models. The theoretical model developed by Mundlack and Larson (1992 is based on the Law of the One Price, which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run and allows for deviations in the short run. The international market was characterized by three relevant soybean prices: Rotterdam Port, Argentina and the United States. The paper estimates the elasticity of transmission of these prices into soybean prices in Brazil. There were carried causality and cointegration tests in order to identify whether there is significant long-term relationship among these variables. There was also calculated the impulse-response function and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the transmission of variations in the international prices over Brazilian prices. An exogeneity test was also carried out so as to check whether the variables respond to short term deviations from equilibrium values. Results validated the Law of the One Price in the long run. In line with many studies, this paper showed that Brazil and Argentina can be seen as price takers as long as the speed of their adjustment to shocks is faster than in the United States, the latter being a price maker.

  6. Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

    OpenAIRE

    Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

    1994-01-01

    We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

  7. Assessing and optimizing the economic and environmental impacts of cogeneration/district energy systems using an energy equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Y.J.; Rosen, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Energy equilibrium models can be valuable aids in energy planning and decision-making. In such models, supply is represented by a cost-minimizing linear submodel and demand by a smooth vector-valued function of prices. In this paper, we use the energy equilibrium model to study conventional systems and cogeneration-based district energy (DE) systems for providing heating, cooling and electrical services, not only to assess the potential economic and environmental benefits of cogeneration-based DE systems, but also to develop optimal configurations while accounting for such factors as economics and environmental impact. The energy equilibrium model is formulated and solved with software called WATEMS, which uses sequential non-linear programming to calculate the intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. The methods of analysis and evaluation for the economic and environmental impacts are carefully explored. An illustrative energy equilibrium model of conventional and cogeneration-based DE systems is developed within WATEMS to compare quantitatively the economic and environmental impacts of those systems for various scenarios. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  8. Equilibrium and non-equilibrium phenomena in arcs and torches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mullen, van der J.J.A.M.

    2000-01-01

    A general treatment of non-equilibrium plasma aspects is obtained by relating transport fluxes to equilibrium restoring processes in so-called disturbed Bilateral Relations. The (non) equilibrium stage of a small microwave induced plasma serves as case study.

  9. Oil prices, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chien-Chiang; Chiu, Yi-Bin

    2011-01-01

    This paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971-2006. The panel cointegration results show that in the long run, oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption, suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. The long-run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0.89, and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. Furthermore, the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run, while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run. - Research highlights: → We examine the relationship among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries. → The existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. → Real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. → An unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run.

  10. List prices vs. bargain prices: which solution to estimate consumer price indices?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlo De Gregorio

    2010-01-01

    Alternative approaches to CPI surveys are here evaluated, in markets where final prices are based on some sort of price listing. Three types of surveys are compared: local surveys (LOC), with small samples and a local price collection; list price surveys (LIS), with huge samples and centralised collection; mixed surveys (MXD), in which LOC and LIS are jointly used. Based on a multiplicative pricing model, some conditions are derived to establish the relative efficiency of these approaches. Th...

  11. GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: ADynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Makundi, Willy; Dale, Larry; Chan, Peter; Andrasko, Kenneth

    2005-03-22

    This paper reports on the global potential for carbonsequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbonemissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenariosfrom 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typicallyseen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector wasdisaggregated into tenregions, four largely temperate, developedregions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; andsix developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China,India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- wereanalyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Keyfindings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbongain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value ofcumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated witha decrease in deforestation.

  12. Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

  13. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  14. The impact of different energy policy options on feedstock price and land demand for maize silage: The case of biogas in Lombardy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartoli, A.; Cavicchioli, D.; Kremmydas, D.; Rozakis, S.; Olper, A.

    2016-01-01

    The growing demand of maize silage for biogas production in Northern Italy has triggered an intense debate concerning land rents, maize prices and their possible negative consequences on important agri-food chains. The aim of this work is to quantify the extent to which the rapid spread of biogas raised the maize price at regional level, increasing the demand of land for energy crops. For this purpose we applied a partial-equilibrium framework simulating the agricultural sector and the biogas industry in Lombardy, under two alternative schemes of subsidization policy. Results show that policy measures implemented in 2013 – reducing the average subsidy per kWh – may contribute to enforce the complementarity of the sector with agri-food chains, decreasing the competition between energy and non-energy uses. Compared to the old scheme, maize demand for biogas would decrease, lessening the market clearing price (as well as feed opportunity cost for livestock sector) and reducing land demand for energy purposes. - Highlights: •We investigate biogas production in Lombardy under two alternative policy scenarios. •We model the biogas sector using a partial equilibrium approach. •Past legislation significantly increases maize demand and its market clearing price. •New incentive system favors manure based plants (130 kWe) decreasing maize demand. •Wider, new policy mitigates past distortions and negative effects on maize price.

  15. The Price Normalization Problem in Imperfect Competition and the Objective of the Firm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

    for the Nash equilibria. In this paper we show that, given a firm has chosen a particular profit function as its objective, profit maximization can be expressed in such a way that it depends on relative prices only. However, the choice of such an objective function need not be in the interest...... of the shareholders. This problem is overcome by relating the profits of a firm to the aggregate demand of its shareholders. We propose a definition of the objective of a firm, called maximization of shareholders' real wealth, which does not depend on any price normalizaion. Real wealth maxima are shown to exist...... under certain conditions. Moreover, we consider an oligopolistic market and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium in which each firm maximizes the real wealth of its shareholders. As a consequence, there is no need for absolute prices in the theory of imperfect competition...

  16. The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

  17. Road pricing, luftforurening og eksternalitetsomkostninger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Steen Solvang; Ketzel, Matthias; Andersen, Mikael Skou

    Rapporten bidrager til at styrke det faglige grundlag for at kunne reducere luftforureningens konsekvenser for folkesundheden igennem den måde som prisstrukturen for road pricing indrettes på. Der er gennemført en analyse af, hvordan prisstrukturen kan differentieres i sted og tid, således...

  18. Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh

    1988-01-01

    A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...

  19. Regional prices in the Swedish wood-fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillring, Bengt

    1999-01-01

    This paper analyses, through a statistical survey, the regional distribution of prices on the commercial wood-fuel market for district heating plants and the pellets market for single family houses. The existing market watch of the national Swedish wood-fuel market has been developed for both refined and unrefined wood-fuels. The last five years the trend for wood-fuel prices on the district heating market has been stable, with a slight increase in the price of refined wood-fuels. However, on the young and fast-growing household market for pellets, prices have increased 12% during the last three years. The distribution of prices for northern, middle and southern Sweden indicates differences within 5% between the regions. The limited price difference between Swedish regions are a product of a large domestic supply and an increasing trade among regions in Europe, putting pressure on prices. Regional differences, mirrored as transportation distances and local production costs are key factors that could explain this regional price variation. However, the development of a commercial market with less regulation tends to level out prices. Consumers on the household market purchase small quantities and do not have the same possibility as district heating companies to take advantage of the oversupply opportunity and thus face a faster price development. The weaker market position of the consumers also tends to give homogeneous prices between regions of the residential sector. (Author)

  20. Pricing and ordering policies for price-dependent demand in a supply chain of a single retailer and a single manufacturer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jungkyu; Hong, Yushin; Kim, Taebok

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses joint pricing and ordering policies for price-dependent demand in a supply chain consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. The retailer places orders for products according to an EOQ policy and the manufacturer produces them on a lot-for-lot basis. Four mechanisms with differing levels of coordination are presented. Mathematical models are formulated and solution procedures are developed to determine the optimal retail prices and order quantities. Through extensive numerical experiments, we analyse and compare the behaviours and characteristics of the proposed mechanisms, and find that enhancing the level of coordination has important benefits for the supply chain.