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Sample records for price elasticity estimates

  1. Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-04

    This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

  2. Price elasticity estimates for tobacco products in India.

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    John, Rijo M

    2008-05-01

    The tax base of tobacco in India is heavily dependent on about 14% of tobacco users, who smoke cigarettes. Non-cigarette tobacco products accounting for 85% of the tobacco consumption contributes only 15% of the total tobacco taxes. Though taxation is an important tool to regulate consumption of tobacco, there have been no estimates of price elasticities for different tobacco products in India to date, which can guide tax policy on tobacco. This paper, for the first time in India, examines the price elasticity of demand for bidis, cigarettes and leaf tobacco at the national level using a representative cross-section of households. This study found that own-price elasticity estimates of different tobacco products in India ranged between -0.4 to -0.9, with bidis (an indigenous hand-rolled smoked tobacco preparation in India) and leaf tobacco having elasticities close to unity. Cigarettes were the least price elastic of all. With some assumptions, it is shown that the tax on bidis can be increased to Rs. 100 per 1000 sticks compared with the current Rs. 14 and the tax on an average cigarette can be increased to Rs. 3.5 per stick without any fear of losing revenue. The paper argues that the current system of taxing cigarettes in India based on the presence of filters and the length of cigarettes has no justification on health grounds, and should be abolished, if reducing tobacco consumption and the consequent disease burden is one of the objectives of tobacco taxation policy. It also argues that attempts to regulate tobacco use without effecting significant tax increases on bidis may not produce desired results.

  3. Price elasticity estimation of electricity demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourbonnais, Regis; Keppler, Jan Horst

    2013-10-01

    On request of the French Union of Electricity (UFE), the authors have carried out a series of econometric statistical tests in order to determine the price elasticity of electricity demand in France. The results obtained are all solid and realistic

  4. Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada.

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    Gruber, Jonathan; Sen, Anindya; Stabile, Mark

    2003-09-01

    A central parameter for evaluating tax policies is the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes. But in many countries this parameter is difficult to estimate reliably due to widespread smuggling, which significantly biases estimates using legal sales data. An excellent example is Canada, where widespread smuggling in the early 1990s, in response to large tax increases, biases upwards the response of legal cigarette sales to price. We surmount this problem through two approaches: excluding the provinces and years where smuggling was greatest; and using household level expenditure data on smoking. These two approaches yield a tightly estimated elasticity in the range of -0.45 to -0.47. We also show that the sensitivity of smoking to price is much larger among lower income Canadians. In the context of recent behavioral models of smoking, whereby higher taxes reduce unwanted smoking among price sensitive populations, this finding suggests that cigarette taxes may not be as regressive as previously suggested. Finally, we show that price increases on cigarettes do not increase, and may actually decrease, consumption of alcohol; as a result, smuggling of cigarettes may have raised consumption of alcohol as well.

  5. Estimation of Iranian price elasticities of residential electricity demand

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    Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study to determine demand for electricity in city of Yazd, Iran over the period of 1998-2008. Using vector error correction model (VECM based on seasonal information, the study determines that electricity has no elasticity in short term in household expenditure. Therefore, government policy on increasing price of electricity will not influence demand. However, electricity maintains elasticity over the long-term period and an increase on price of electricity could motivate consumers to reduce their consumption by purchasing energy efficient facilities. Therefore, any governmental strategy to increase price may have positive impact on economy. The study also detects a positive and meaningful relationship between temperature and electricity consumption.

  6. Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Expenditure on Medical Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalski, Amanda

    2016-01-02

    Efforts to control medical care costs depend critically on how individuals respond to prices. I estimate the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care using a censored quantile instrumental variable (CQIV) estimator. CQIV allows estimates to vary across the conditional expenditure distribution, relaxes traditional censored model assumptions, and addresses endogeneity with an instrumental variable. My instrumental variable strategy uses a family member's injury to induce variation in an individual's own price. Across the conditional deciles of the expenditure distribution, I find elasticities that vary from -0.76 to -1.49, which are an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates.

  7. Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, J.C.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper uses a multiple regression model derived from an adaptation of Nerlove's partial adjustment model to estimate both the short-run and long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in 23 countries. The estimates so obtained confirm that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price. (author)

  8. Estimation of Gasoline Price Elasticities of Demand for Automobile Fuel Efficiency in Korea: A Hedonic Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sung Tae [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Myunghun [Keimyung University, Taegu (Korea)

    2001-03-01

    This paper estimates the gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea to examine indirectly whether the government policy of raising fuel prices is effective in inducing less consumption of fuel, relying on a hedonic technique developed by Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984). One of the advantages of this technique is that the data for a single year, without involving variation in the price of gasoline, is sufficient in implementing this study. Moreover, this technique enables us to circumvent the multicollinearity problem, which had reduced reliability of the results in previous hedonic studies. The estimated elasticities of demand for fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline, on average, is 0.42. (author). 30 refs., 3 tabs.

  9. Estimating cross-price elasticity of e-cigarettes using a simulated demand procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C; Kivell, Bronwyn M; Laugesen, Murray

    2015-05-01

    Our goal was to measure the cross-price elasticity of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and simulated demand for tobacco cigarettes both in the presence and absence of e-cigarette availability. A sample of New Zealand smokers (N = 210) completed a Cigarette Purchase Task to indicate their demand for tobacco at a range of prices. They sampled an e-cigarette and rated it and their own-brand tobacco for favorability, and indicated how many e-cigarettes and regular cigarettes they would purchase at 0.5×, 1×, and 2× the current market price for regular cigarettes, assuming that the price of e-cigarettes remained constant. Cross-price elasticity for e-cigarettes was estimated as 0.16, and was significantly positive, indicating that e-cigarettes were partially substitutable for regular cigarettes. Simulated demand for regular cigarettes at current market prices decreased by 42.8% when e-cigarettes were available, and e-cigarettes were rated 81% as favorably as own-brand tobacco. However when cigarettes cost 2× the current market price, significantly more smokers said they would quit (50.2%) if e-cigarettes were not available than if they were available (30.0%). Results show that e-cigarettes are potentially substitutable for regular cigarettes and their availability will reduce tobacco consumption. However, e-cigarettes may discourage smokers from quitting entirely as cigarette price increases, so policy makers should consider maintaining a constant relative price differential between e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Estimating Price Elasticity of Demand for Motor Fuel in the Transport Sectors

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    Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of long-term forecasts of prices and demand on regional energy markets requires accounting for the future changes in the interactions between the greater economy and its energy sector, along with the possible emergence of new factors and specific regional features determining those interactions. The proposed approach allows the study of a correlation between demand and prices for motor fuel, taking into account the competition of energy carriers, the dynamics of energy prices, resource constraints, the use of new technologies and the uncertainty of input data. The main feature of the proposed approach is the combined estimation of the price elasticity of demand for motor fuel with optimization of fuel supply in the region. Thus the author determined elasticity of demand based on the comparison of economic efficiency of the use of different fuels. The study includes results of experimental calculations and forecasted price according to demand for motor fuel in freight transportation for the expected development conditions of the Far Eastern federal district

  11. Estimating the price elasticity for demand for electricity by sector in South Africa

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    Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses electricity consumption patterns in South Africa in an attempt to understand and identify the roots of the current electricity crisis. This is done by investigating various economic sectors’ responses to price changes using panel data for the period 1993–2004. Positive and statistically significant price elasticities over this period were found for the transport (rail and commercial sectors while there are positive, but small and statistically insignificant responses to price changes in the agriculture and mining sectors. Only the industrial sector responded to changes in electricity prices according to theory, namely illustrating negative demand elasticities. This sector, however, dominates electricity consumption resulting in aggregate demand elasticities that are negative. These results explain, in part, the current electricity crisis. Given the historic low level of electricity prices in conjunction with, on the whole, a real price decline, i.e. price increases lower than the inflation rate; there was no major incentive to reduce electricity consumption and/or to be efficient. This result supports the notion that prices do have an important signalling effect in the economy. Hence, the electricity prices should be considered not only from an economic growth or social vantage point, but also from a supply and technocratic perspective, which includes environmental factors such as CO2-emissions. Prices should not be determined without considering the system-wide implications thereof.

  12. Estimating the price elasticity of expenditure for prescription drugs in the presence of non-linear price schedules: an illustration from Quebec, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contoyannis, Paul; Hurley, Jeremiah; Grootendorst, Paul; Jeon, Sung-Hee; Tamblyn, Robyn

    2005-09-01

    The price elasticity of demand for prescription drugs is a crucial parameter of interest in designing pharmaceutical benefit plans. Estimating the elasticity using micro-data, however, is challenging because insurance coverage that includes deductibles, co-insurance provisions and maximum expenditure limits create a non-linear price schedule, making price endogenous (a function of drug consumption). In this paper we exploit an exogenous change in cost-sharing within the Quebec (Canada) public Pharmacare program to estimate the price elasticity of expenditure for drugs using IV methods. This approach corrects for the endogeneity of price and incorporates the concept of a 'rational' consumer who factors into consumption decisions the price they expect to face at the margin given their expected needs. The IV method is adapted from an approach developed in the public finance literature used to estimate income responses to changes in tax schedules. The instrument is based on the price an individual would face under the new cost-sharing policy if their consumption remained at the pre-policy level. Our preferred specification leads to expenditure elasticities that are in the low range of previous estimates (between -0.12 and -0.16). Naïve OLS estimates are between 1 and 4 times these magnitudes. (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Estimating the own-price elasticity of demand for irrigation water in the Musi catchment of India

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    Davidson, Brian; Hellegers, Petra

    2011-10-01

    SummaryAs irrigation water is an input into a production process, its demand must be 'derived'. According to theory, a derived demand schedule should be downward sloping and dependent on the outputs produced from it, the prices of other inputs and the price of the water itself. Problems arise when an attempt is made to estimate the demand for irrigation water and the resulting own-price elasticity of demand, as the uses to which water is put are spatially, temporarily and geographically diverse. Because water is not generally freely traded, what normally passes for an estimate of the own-price elasticity of demand for irrigation water is usually a well argued assumption or an estimate that is derived from a simulation model of a hypothesized producer. Such approaches tend to provide an inadequate explanation of what is an extremely complex and important relationship. An adequate explanation of the relationship between the price and the quantity demanded of water should be one that not only accords with the theoretical expectations, but also accounts for the diversity of products produced from water (which includes the management practices of farmers), the seasons in which it is used and over the region within which it is used. The objective in this article is to present a method of estimating the demand curve for irrigation water. The method uses actual field data which is collated using the Residual Method to determine the value of the marginal product of water deployed over a wide range of crops, seasons and regions. These values of the marginal products, all which must lie of the input demand schedule for water, are then ordered from the highest value to the lowest. Then, the amount of irrigation water used for each product, in each season and in each region is cumulatively summed over the range of uses according to the order of the values of the marginal products. This data, once ordered, is then used to econometrically estimate the demand schedule from which

  14. Brazilian sawn wood price and income elasticity

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    Rommel Noce

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This study estimated the sawn wood demand price and income elasticity. Specifically it was estimated the priceelasticity of sawn wood, the cross price elasticity of wood panels and the income elasticity of Brazilian GDP. A log-log model withcorrection through outline of the mobile average (MA(1 was used, adjusted for the period of 1971 to 2006, which showed to bestable, with satisfactory significance levels. It was observed that sawn wood demand is inelastic in relation to price and elastic inrelation to income.

  15. Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach

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    Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Objective During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers’ sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Methods Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers’ income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Results Short-run price elasticity is estimated at −0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Conclusions Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. PMID:25564137

  16. Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-05

    During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers' sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers' income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Short-run price elasticity is estimated at -0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. Estimating the price elasticity of beer: meta-analysis of data with heterogeneity, dependence, and publication bias.

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    Nelson, Jon P

    2014-01-01

    Precise estimates of price elasticities are important for alcohol tax policy. Using meta-analysis, this paper corrects average beer elasticities for heterogeneity, dependence, and publication selection bias. A sample of 191 estimates is obtained from 114 primary studies. Simple and weighted means are reported. Dependence is addressed by restricting number of estimates per study, author-restricted samples, and author-specific variables. Publication bias is addressed using funnel graph, trim-and-fill, and Egger's intercept model. Heterogeneity and selection bias are examined jointly in meta-regressions containing moderator variables for econometric methodology, primary data, and precision of estimates. Results for fixed- and random-effects regressions are reported. Country-specific effects and sample time periods are unimportant, but several methodology variables help explain the dispersion of estimates. In models that correct for selection bias and heterogeneity, the average beer price elasticity is about -0.20, which is less elastic by 50% compared to values commonly used in alcohol tax policy simulations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Cheaper by the Dozen: Using Sibling Discounts at Catholic Schools to Estimate the Price Elasticity of Private School Attendance. NBER Working Paper No. 15461

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    Dynarski, Susan; Gruber, Jonathan; Li, Danielle

    2009-01-01

    The effect of vouchers on sorting between private and public schools depends upon the price elasticity of demand for private schooling. Estimating this elasticity is empirically challenging because prices and quantities are jointly determined in the market for private schooling. We exploit a unique and previously undocumented source of variation…

  19. Estimating the Price Elasticity of Demand for Different Levels of Alcohol Consumption among Young Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Vinish Shrestha

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the effect of higher alcohol prices on alcohol demand according to one’s level of alcohol consumption is crucial while evaluating the effectiveness of using alcohol taxes as an alcohol-control medium. In this study, I estimate the differential responses to alcohol prices on alcohol demand for young adults by asking whether heavy drinkers are more responsive to higher alcohol prices than light and moderate drinkers. To conduct the analysis, I use the data from the National Long...

  20. Estimating Demand and Cross-Price Elasticity for Very Low Nicotine Content (VLNC) Cigarettes Using a Simulated Demand Task.

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    Tucker, Megan R; Laugesen, Murray; Grace, Randolph C

    2017-03-03

    Very Low Nicotine Content (VLNC) cigarettes might be useful as part of a tobacco control strategy, but relatively little is known about their acceptability as substitutes for regular cigarettes. We compared subjective effects and demand for regular cigarettes and Very Low Nicotine Content (VLNC) cigarettes, and estimated cross-price elasticity for VLNC cigarettes, using simulated demand tasks. 40 New Zealand smokers sampled a VLNC cigarette and completed Cigarette Purchase Tasks to indicate their demand for regular cigarettes and VLNC cigarettes at a range of prices, and a cross-price task indicating how many regular cigarettes and VLNC cigarettes they would purchase at 0.5x, 1x, and 2x the current market price for regular cigarettes, assuming the price of VLNC cigarettes remained constant. They also rated the subjective effects of the VLNC cigarette and their usual-brand regular cigarettes. Cross-price elasticity for VLNC cigarettes was estimated as 0.24 and was significantly positive, indicating that VLNC cigarettes are partially substitutable for regular cigarettes. VLNC cigarettes were rated as less satisfying and psychologically rewarding than regular cigarettes, but this was unrelated to demand or substitutability. VLNC cigarettes are potentially substitutable for regular cigarettes. Their availability may reduce tobacco consumption, nicotine intake and addiction; making it easier for smokers to quit. VLNC cigarettes share the behavioural and sensory components of smoking whilst delivering negligible levels of nicotine. Although smokers rated VLNCs as less satisfying than regular cigarettes, smokers said they would increase their consumption of VLNCs as the price of regular cigarettes increased, if VLNCs were available at a lower price. This suggests that VLNCs are partially substitutable for regular cigarettes. VLNCs can be part of an effective tobacco control strategy, by reducing nicotine dependence and improving health and financial outcomes for smokers

  1. Price Elasticity of Alcohol Demand in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Santosh

    2017-05-01

    Using a household survey conducted in 2014, this study estimates price elasticity of demand (PED) for beer, country liquor and spirits in India. Ordinary least-square models were used to estimate the responsiveness in alcohol demand due to price change. A large number of control variables were included to adjust for potential confounding in the model. Inter-district variation in alcohol consumption is adjusted for by including district fixed effects. Alcohol prices are negatively associated with demand for alcoholic beverages. The PED ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.46 for country liquor. Low level of education was positively associated with spirits consumption. The magnitude of elasticity varied by rural-urban, education and gender. Results indicate that a policy mix of price controls and awareness campaigns would be most effective in tackling the adverse effects of harmful drinking in India. The demand for beer, country liquor and spirits is negatively associated with its own price. The elasticity estimates ranged from -0.14 for spirits to -0.44 for country liquor. The elasticity estimates varied by rural-urban, gender and by education levels of the drinkers. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

  2. Estimating the Own-Price Elasticity for Irrigation Water in the Musi Catchment of India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Davidson, B.

    2011-01-01

    As irrigation water is an input into a production process, its demand must be ‘derived’. According to theory, a derived demand schedule should be downward sloping and dependent on the outputs produced from it, the prices of other inputs and the price of the water itself. Problems arise when an

  3. The real-time price elasticity of electricity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lijesen, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    The real-time price elasticity of electricity contains important information on the demand response of consumers to the volatility of peak prices. Despite the importance, empirical estimates of the real-time elasticity are hardly available. This paper provides a quantification of the real-time

  4. The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Shu; Hyndman, Rob J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the price elasticity of electricity demand, representing the sensitivity of customer demand to the price of electricity, has been estimated for South Australia. We first undertake a review of the scholarly literature regarding electricity price elasticity for different regions and systems. Then we perform an empirical evaluation of the historic South Australian price elasticity, focussing on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. This work attempts to determine whether there is any variation in price sensitivity with the time of day or quantile, and to estimate the form of any relationships that might exist in South Australia. - Highlights: → We review the scholarly literature on electricity own-price elasticity for different regions and systems. → We use annual log-linear econometric models of the electricity demand to estimate the historic South Australian price elasticity. → We focus on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. → The overall price elasticity in South Australia ranges from -0.363 to -0.428.

  5. New empirical generalizations on the determinants of price elasticity

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    Bijmolt, THA; Van Heerde, HJ; Pieters, RGM

    The importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities. In an influential meta-analytical study, Tellis (1988) summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986. However, empirical generalizations on price elasticity require

  6. Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports

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    Bernardina Algieri

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper gauges export demand elasticities for Russia using an Error Correction technique within a cointegration framework. An extended version of the Imperfect Substitutes Model has been implemented to estimate the sensitivity of Russian exports without oil components to price and to Russian and world income. Our results suggest a robust and negative long run cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate, defined as the weighted average of the rouble’s exchange rates versus a basket of the three currencies with the largest share in the trade turnover adjusted to incorporate inflation rate differences (the ratio of the domestic price indices to the foreign price indices, and Russian exports. An increase in exports by 24% is caused by a real depreciation by 10%. Furthermore, a 10% growth in world income leads to a 33% rise in exports. Finally, exports drop by 14% whenever a 10% increase in domestic income occurs

  7. Demand for natural gas from industries in Brazil: an estimate of the price elasticity, income elasticity and forecast for 2008-2012 using VEC (Vector Error Correction) Model; Demanda por gas natural no Brasil: um estudo sobre as elasticidades preco e renda de longo prazo do segmento industrial e estimativa para o periodo de 2008-2012 usando modelo VEC (Vector Error Correction)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabral, Renata [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Economia e Administracao; Parente, Virginia [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of the present study is to estimate the long-run elasticities - manly price and income - of the demand for gas natural in the industrial category. After determining that the series under study were non-stationary, we chose to use the cointegration approach, estimating a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model). The obtained results show that the price elasticity for industrial sector in Brazil is higher than income elasticity. Although both of then is near to one, the price elasticity is higher that one unit while income elasticity is slightly lower. Predictions for the gas natural consumption in Brazil for industrials for 2008-2012 period are also made. (author)

  8. Application Service Program (ASP) Price Elasticities

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Jaeweon; Cho Wanwoo; Jang Ho; Kwak Youngsik

    2010-01-01

    Although the price elasticities for off-line industry are well documented in academic field, the report of price elasticities for on-line to a given brand or industry in practice have beenrelatively rare. The researcher aims to try to full this gap by applying a price response function to Home Trading System’s on-line transaction data for the first time in Korean securities market. The different price elasticities among seven brands were found from -0.819 to -1.811. These results suggested th...

  9. Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Coglianese, John; Davis, Lucas W; Kilian, Lutz; Stock, James H

    2015-01-01

    Traditional least squares estimates of the responsiveness of gasoline consumption to changes in gasoline prices are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly natural solution to this problem is to instrument for gasoline prices using gasoline taxes, but this approach tends to yield implausibly large price elasticities. We demonstrate that anticipatory behavior provides an important explanation for this result. We provide evidence that gasoline buyers increase g...

  10. A Reevaluation of Price Elasticities for Irrigation Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, Richard E.; Watson, William D.; Adams, Richard M.

    1980-08-01

    The effectiveness of pricing systems in the allocation of irrigation water is linked with the price elasticity of demand of farmers for water. Using microeconomic theory, it is shown that omission of the elasticity of demand for the crop produced leads to an inelastic bias in the demand for irrigated water. Linear programing approaches omit the product elasticity of demand and are consequently biased, whereas quadratic programing approaches to estimating derived demands for irrigation water include product demand functions. The difference between the resulting estimates are empirically demonstrated for regional derived demand functions estimated from a model of California's agricultural industry.

  11. The real-time price elasticity of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lijesen, Mark G.

    2007-01-01

    The real-time price elasticity of electricity contains important information on the demand response of consumers to the volatility of peak prices. Despite the importance, empirical estimates of the real-time elasticity are hardly available. This paper provides a quantification of the real-time relationship between total peak demand and spot market prices. We find a low value for the real-time price elasticity, which may partly be explained from the fact that not all users observe the spot market price. If we correct for this phenomenon, we find the elasticity to be fairly low for consumers currently active in the spot market. If this conclusion applies to all users, this would imply a limited scope for government intervention in supply security issues. (Author)

  12. Two Propositions on the Application of Point Elasticities to Finite Price Changes.

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    Daskin, Alan J.

    1992-01-01

    Considers counterintuitive propositions about using point elasticities to estimate quantity changes in response to price changes. Suggests that elasticity increases with price along a linear demand curve, but falling quantity demand offsets it. Argues that point elasticity with finite percentage change in price only approximates percentage change…

  13. Price Elasticities of Food Demand: Compensated vs Uncompensated.

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    Clements, Kenneth W; Si, Jiawei

    2016-11-01

    Two recent studies have provided a comprehensive review/summary of a large number of estimates of the price elasticity of food consumption using a meta-regression approach. In this letter, we introduce a way of removing the income effect from these elasticities to recover the compensated elasticities. Although the income effect is small, the compensated elasticities vary by income group. Both types of elasticity should possibly be considered when assessing the impact of policy changes on food consumption. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Price and income elasticities of residential energy demand in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, Isabella; Heindl, Peter

    2017-01-01

    We apply a quadratic expenditure system to estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand (electricity and heating) in Germany. Using official expenditure data from 1993 to 2008, we estimate an expenditure elasticity for electricity of 0.3988 and of 0.4055 for space heating. The own price elasticity for electricity is −0.4310 and −0.5008 in the case of space heating. Disaggregation of households by expenditure and socio-economic composition reveals that the behavioural response to energy price changes is weaker (stronger) for low-income (top-income) households. There are considerable economies of scale in residential energy use but scale effects are not well approximated by the new OECD equivalence scale. Real increases in energy prices show a regressive pattern of incidence, implying that the welfare consequences of direct energy taxation are larger for low income households. The application of zero-elasticities in assessments of welfare consequences of energy taxation strongly underestimates potential welfare effects. The increase in inequality is 22% smaller when compared to the application of disaggregated price and income elasticities as estimated in this paper. - Highlights: • We estimate price, income, and expenditure elasticities for residential energy demand in Germany. • We differentiate elasticities by income groups and household type. • Electricity and space heating are necessary goods since the expenditure elasticities are smaller than unity. • Low-income households show a weaker reaction to changing prices when compared to high-income households. • Direct energy taxation has regressive effects, meaning that larger burdens fall upon low-income households.

  15. Demand assessment and price-elasticity estimation of quality-improved primary health care in Palestine: a contribution from the contingent valuation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mataria, Awad; Luchini, Stéphane; Daoud, Yousef; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2007-10-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to assess demand and price-elasticity for health care, based on patients' stated willingness to pay (WTP) values for certain aspects of health care quality improvements. A conceptual analysis of how respondents consider contingent valuation (CV) questions allowed us to specify a probability density function of stated WTP values, and consequently, to model a demand function for quality-improved health care, using a parametric survival approach. The model was empirically estimated using a CV study intended to assess patients' values for improving the quality of primary health care (PHC) services in Palestine. A random sample of 499 individuals was interviewed following medical consultation in four PHC centers. Quality was assessed using a multi-attribute approach; and respondents valued seven specific quality improvements using a decomposed valuation scenario and a payment card elicitation technique. Our results suggest an inelastic demand at low user fees levels, and when the price-increase is accompanied with substantial quality-improvements. Nevertheless, demand becomes more and more elastic if user fees continue to rise. On the other hand, patients' reactions to price-increase turn out to depend on their level of income. Our results can be used to design successful health care financing strategies that include a consideration of patients' preferences and financial capacities. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatelli, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

  17. Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Sabatelli

    Full Text Available Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences, mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

  18. Drilling rates and expected oil prices: The own price elasticity of US oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Gruen, W.; Montesi, R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper evaluates the feasibility of policies to increase exploration and development by the oil industry. To do so, the authors estimate a new model for well completions in the United States that includes the effect of price expectations from survey data, that separates exploratory from development wells, and that uses a deflator based on the cost of drilling a well. The regression results indicate that the price elasticity of drilling is considerably smaller than previous estimates. When combined with recent analyses of drilling success, the results indicate that the own price elasticity of US oil supply is relatively small. The low price elasticity of supply indicates that efforts to increase domestic oil supplies by increasing well completions may be more expensive than believed previously

  19. Analysis of price and income elasticities for cereals food crops in an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study is to estimate the price and income elasticities of cereals food crops in the study area. The results of the price and income elasticities of demand suggest that urban households in general are responsive to changes in own price and income in adjusting their consumption patterns. It was shown that ...

  20. The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreyeva, Tatiana; Long, Michael W; Brownell, Kelly D

    2010-02-01

    In light of proposals to improve diets by shifting food prices, it is important to understand how price changes affect demand for various foods. We reviewed 160 studies on the price elasticity of demand for major food categories to assess mean elasticities by food category and variations in estimates by study design. Price elasticities for foods and nonalcoholic beverages ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 (absolute values), with food away from home, soft drinks, juice, and meats being most responsive to price changes (0.7-0.8). As an example, a 10% increase in soft drink prices should reduce consumption by 8% to 10%. Studies estimating price effects on substitutions from unhealthy to healthy food and price responsiveness among at-risk populations are particularly needed.

  1. Price elasticity of expenditure across health care services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Fabian

    2012-12-01

    Policymakers in countries around the world are faced with rising health care costs and are debating ways to reform health care to reduce expenditures. Estimates of price elasticity of expenditure are a key component for predicting expenditures under alternative policies. Using unique individual-level data compiled from administrative records from the Chilean private health insurance market, I estimate the price elasticity of expenditures across a variety of health care services. I find elasticities that range between zero for the most acute service (appendectomy) and -2.08 for the most elective (psychologist visit). Moreover, the results show that at least one third of the elasticity is explained by the number of visits; the rest is explained by the intensity of each visit. Finally, I find that high-income individuals are five times more price sensitive than low-income individuals and that older individuals are less price-sensitive than young individuals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Examining the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannan, Michael James

    Estimating the consumer demand response to changes in the price of gasoline has important implications regarding fuel tax policies and environmental concerns. There are reasons to believe that the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand fluctuates due to changing structural and behavioral factors. In this paper I estimate the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in two time periods, from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2010. This study utilizes data at both the national and state levels to produce estimates. The short-run price elasticities range from -0.034 to -0.047 during 2001 to 2006, compared to -0.058 to -0.077 in the 2007 to 2010 period. This paper also examines whether there are regional differences in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States. However, there appears to only be modest variation in price elasticity values across regions.

  3. Pricing perpetual American options under multiscale stochastic elasticity of variance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Ji-Hun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study the effects of the stochastic elasticity of variance on perpetual American option. • Our SEV model consists of a fast mean-reverting factor and a slow mean-revering factor. • A slow scale factor has a very significant impact on the option price. • We analyze option price structures through the market prices of elasticity risk. - Abstract: This paper studies pricing the perpetual American options under a constant elasticity of variance type of underlying asset price model where the constant elasticity is replaced by a fast mean-reverting Ornstein–Ulenbeck process and a slowly varying diffusion process. By using a multiscale asymptotic analysis, we find the impact of the stochastic elasticity of variance on the option prices and the optimal exercise prices with respect to model parameters. Our results enhance the existing option price structures in view of flexibility and applicability through the market prices of elasticity risk

  4. Price elasticities of alcohol demand: evidence from Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Roberts, Bayard; McKee, Martin

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we estimate price elasticities of demand of several types of alcoholic drinks, using 14 rounds of data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-HSE, collected from 1994 until 2009. We deal with potential confounding problems by taking advantage of a large number of control variables, as well as by estimating community fixed effect models. All in all, although alcohol prices do appear to influence consumption behaviour in Russia, in most cases the size of effect is modest. The finding that two particularly problematic drinks-cheap vodka and fortified wine-are substitute goods also suggests that increasing their prices may not lead to smaller alcohol consumption. Therefore, any alcohol pricing policies in Russia must be supplemented with other measures, such as restrictions on numbers of sales outlets or their opening times.

  5. Meta-Analysis of Price Elasticity for Urban Domestic Water Consumption in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mina Tajabadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Price elasticity plays a critical role in determining water tariff and its system. Many economic decision makers and researchers have estimated demand function for different cities in order to predict the associated income and price elasticity. In this research we reviewed 20 studies on urban domestic water demand function from which 63 price elasticity values were obtained. Since the price elasticity values obtained from these studies had significant statistical differences, the aim of this research is to determine the effective factors in price elasticity values as well as to analyze differences in such values using meta-analysis technique. The meta-analysis technique focuses on variation in water price elasticity results. The statistical meta-analysis technique focuses on two main objectives of publication bias or publication heterogeneity in reported results. The results indicated that publication bias is negligible while publication heterogeneity is significant. The major factors affecting price elasticity values are classified into 4 categories including theoretical, model, data and socio-geographical specifications. The result indicated that variables such as income, time-series datasets, natural logarithm function and use of stone-geary theory which is the basis for predicting many domestic water demand functions, significantly overestimate the price elasticity values. Also the geographical condition of the region, population density and use of OLS technique to estimate the demand parameters underestimates the price elasticity values.

  6. Sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, price trends, and price endogeneity: Evidence from U.S. Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mark; Alberini, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature. In this paper, we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the U.S. – the American Housing Survey, Forms EIA-861, and the Residential Energy Consumption Survey. We examine the role of the sample period, level of aggregation, use of panel data, use of instrumental variables, and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock. Our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time. Upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections, we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price. Whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates. We also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates, depending on the dataset used, and that controlling for unit-level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions. Addressing the endogeneity of price and/or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities. Finally, controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity. - Highlights: • The price elasticity of residential electricity demand varies widely across studies. • We use three large datasets from the US to examine reasons for such wide variation. • Some assessed effects include aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, and price trends. • Correcting for such issues can change the estimated price elasticity by 50–100%.

  7. Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

    2008-01-01

    With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

  8. Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, Carol A.

    2012-01-01

    Price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications. They help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer, they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption, help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve, and show the price response to a fuel disruption. Given their usefulness, it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption. In this paper, I focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them. I summarize the elasticities from these historical studies. I use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices. Although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices, patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries. I adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies, and suggest an agenda of future research topics. - Research highlights: ► Surveyed econometric studies of transport fuel demand. ► Developed price elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel for 120 countries. ► Developed income elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel for 120 countries. ► Suggested a research agenda for future work.

  9. Price and income elasticities of demand for alcoholic beverages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ornstein, S I; Levy, D

    1983-01-01

    Estimating the demand for alcoholic beverages represents a difficult statistical problem. A number of studies have attempted to estimate the demand for beer, wine, distilled spirits, or total alcohol consumption. The results vary widely according to country of study, data used, and model and statistical technique. For the United States, most studies find the demand for beer to be relatively price inelastic, at around -0.3. The demand for distilled spirits appears to be unitary price elasticity or somewhat greater, around -1.5. The evidence on wine is too sketchy to draw any conclusions. There is no strong evidence of substitutability among beer, wine, and distilled spirits based on econometric models, nor evidence that advertising plays a strong role in the aggregate demand for beer, wine, or distilled spirits. The main policy implication is that price increases to control consumption will have a stronger impact on the consumption of distilled spirits than on beer.

  10. What U.S. data should be used to measure the price elasticity of demand for alcohol?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhm, Christopher J; Jones, Alison Snow; McGeary, Kerry Anne; Kerr, William C; Terza, Joseph V; Greenfield, Thomas K; Pandian, Ravi S

    2012-12-01

    This paper examines how estimates of the price elasticity of demand for beer vary with the choice of alcohol price series examined. Our most important finding is that the commonly used ACCRA price data are unlikely to reliably indicate alcohol demand elasticities-estimates obtained from this source vary drastically and unpredictably. As an alternative, researchers often use beer taxes to proxy for alcohol prices. While the estimated beer taxes elasticities are more stable, there are several problems with using taxes, including difficulties in accounting for cross-price effects. We believe that the most useful estimates reported in this paper are obtained using annual Uniform Product Code (UPC) "barcode" scanner data on grocery store alcohol prices. These estimates suggest relatively low demand elasticity, probably around -0.3, with evidence that the elasticities are considerably overstated in models that control for beer but not wine or spirits prices. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The price elasticity of demand for heroin: Matched longitudinal and experimental evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstead, Todd A; Alessi, Sheila M; Kline, Brendan; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Petry, Nancy M

    2015-05-01

    This paper reports estimates of the price elasticity of demand for heroin based on a newly constructed dataset. The dataset has two matched components concerning the same sample of regular heroin users: longitudinal information about real-world heroin demand (actual price and actual quantity at daily intervals for each heroin user in the sample) and experimental information about laboratory heroin demand (elicited by presenting the same heroin users with scenarios in a laboratory setting). Two empirical strategies are used to estimate the price elasticity of demand for heroin. The first strategy exploits the idiosyncratic variation in the price experienced by a heroin user over time that occurs in markets for illegal drugs. The second strategy exploits the experimentally induced variation in price experienced by a heroin user across experimental scenarios. Both empirical strategies result in the estimate that the conditional price elasticity of demand for heroin is approximately -0.80. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The price elasticity of demand for heroin: matched longitudinal and experimental evidence#

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstead, Todd A.; Alessi, Sheila M.; Kline, Brendan; Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Petry, Nancy M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports estimates of the price elasticity of demand for heroin based on a newly constructed dataset. The dataset has two matched components concerning the same sample of regular heroin users: longitudinal information about real-world heroin demand (actual price and actual quantity at daily intervals for each heroin user in the sample) and experimental information about laboratory heroin demand (elicited by presenting the same heroin users with scenarios in a laboratory setting). Two empirical strategies are used to estimate the price elasticity of demand for heroin. The first strategy exploits the idiosyncratic variation in the price experienced by a heroin user over time that occurs in markets for illegal drugs. The second strategy exploits the experimentally-induced variation in price experienced by a heroin user across experimental scenarios. Both empirical strategies result in the estimate that the conditional price elasticity of demand for heroin is approximately −0.80. PMID:25702687

  13. What Happens to Patterns of Food Consumption when Food Prices Change? Evidence from A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Food Price Elasticities Globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelsen, Laura; Green, Rosemary; Turner, Rachel; Dangour, Alan D; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have seen considerable interest in examining the impact of food prices on food consumption and subsequent health consequences. Fiscal policies targeting the relative price of unhealthy foods are frequently put forward as ways to address the obesity epidemic. Conversely, various food subsidy interventions are used in attempts to reduce levels of under-nutrition. Information on price elasticities is essential for understanding how such changes in food prices affect food consumption. It is crucial to know not only own-price elasticities but also cross-price elasticities, as food substitution patterns may have significant implications for policy recommendations. While own-price elasticities are common in analyses of the impact of food price changes on health, cross-price effects, even though generally acknowledged, are much less frequently included in analyses, especially in the public health literature. This article systematically reviews the global evidence on cross-price elasticities and provides combined estimates for seven food groups in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries alongside previously estimated own-price elasticities. Changes in food prices had the largest own-price effects in low-income countries. Cross-price effects were more varied and depending on country income level were found to be reinforcing, undermining or alleviating own-price effects. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  15. Estimating elasticity for residential electricity demand in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, G; Zheng, X; Song, F

    2012-01-01

    Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff.

  16. Price elasticity and medication use: cost sharing across multiple clinical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatwood, Justin; Gibson, Teresa B; Chernew, Michael E; Farr, Amanda M; Vogtmann, Emily; Fendrick, A Mark

    2014-11-01

    To address the impact that out-of-pocket prices may have on medication use, it is vital to understand how the demand for medications may be affected when patients are faced with changes in the price to acquire treatment and how price responsiveness differs across medication classes.  To examine the impact of cost-sharing changes on the demand for 8 classes of prescription medications. This was a retrospective database analysis of 11,550,363 commercially insured enrollees within the 2005-2009 MarketScan Database. Patient cost sharing, expressed as a price index for each medication class, was the main explanatory variable to examine the price elasticity of demand. Negative binomial fixed effect models were estimated to examine medication fills. The elasticity estimates reflect how use changes over time as a function of changes in copayments. Model estimates revealed that price elasticity of demand ranged from -0.015 to -0.157 within the 8 categories of medications (P  less than  0.01 for 7 of 8 categories). The price elasticity of demand for smoking deterrents was largest (-0.157, P  less than  0.0001), while demand for antiplatelet agents was not responsive to price (P  greater than 0.05). The price elasticity of demand varied considerably by medication class, suggesting that the influence of cost sharing on medication use may be related to characteristics inherent to each medication class or underlying condition.

  17. Price elasticity of natural gas demand in the power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McArdle, P.F.

    1990-01-01

    Today, the demand for energy by the electric generation sector is highly competitive and price-responsive. Previous estimates of the price elasticity of natural gas demand in this sector have focused primarily on data from the 1960s and 1970s. Such estimates fail to take full account of economic, regulatory, and legislative developments that have altered the structure of the electric generation market during the 1980s. Structural changes include an increased ability of utilities to choose among generating options, the increase in non-utility generators, the amending of the Fuel Use Act, and a more competitive market for electricity. An accurate estimate of price elasticity requires a refocusing on data from the post-1983 period. The purpose of this paper is to answer two questions: how price responsive (elastic) is natural gas demand in this market; and what changes in natural gas demand elasticity have occurred over time

  18. What U.S. Data Should be Used to Measure the Price Elasticity of Demand for Alcohol?*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhm, Christopher J.; Jones, Alison Snow; McGeary, Kerry Anne; Kerr, William C.; Terza, Joseph V.; Greenfield, Thomas K.; Pandian, Ravi S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines how estimates of the price elasticity of demand for beer vary with the choice of alcohol price series examined. Our most important finding is that the commonly used ACCRA price data are unlikely to reliably indicate alcohol demand elasticities—estimates obtained from this source vary drastically and unpredictably. As an alternative, researchers often use beer taxes to proxy for alcohol prices. While the estimated beer taxes elasticities are more stable, there are several problems with using taxes, including difficulties in accounting for cross-price effects. We believe that the most useful estimates reported in this paper are obtained using annual Uniform Product Code (UPC) “barcode” scanner data on grocery store alcohol prices. These estimates suggest relatively low demand elasticity, probably around −0.3, with evidence that the elasticities are considerably overstated in models that control for beer but not wine or spirits prices. PMID:23022631

  19. Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Roger

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. - Highlights: ► Estimates trends in income and price elasticities of aggregate UK land transport demand (1850–2010). ► Income and price elasticities were very large in late 1800s and declined since then. ► In 2010, they were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. ► Future elasticities are likely to decline gradually in developed economies and faster in developing economies. ► Energy transitions may delay the decline in elasticities.

  20. Price elasticity of petroleum products in selected African countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, S.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, a fundamental understanding of the economic impact which is directly related to the price elasticity of petroleum products in six selected African countries is obtained by using the Jorgorson-Lian model for shares. Each kind of fuel price has a different impact on the share of oil products for the different countries. The price increase of one kind of fuel may increase or decrease the share of another fuel in the total oil products. In the oil importing African countries, the price of one product is relatively inelastic, whereas in the oil producing African countries, the price is elastic. (Author)

  1. [Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol in Ecuador, based on household data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chávez, Ricardo

    2016-10-01

    Estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol in Ecuador using cross-sectional data from the National Survey of Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGHUR is the acronym in Spanish) 2011-2012. ENIGHUR 2011-2012 data were used with Deaton's (1, 2) methodology to estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and alcohol with expenditure and quantity information. Household socioeconomic variables were also included. Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is -0.87, meaning that a 10% price increase could lead to an 8.7% decrease in consumption. Results for cross-price elasticities of alcohol on cigarette demand are negative, as expected, indicating that they are complementary goods; however, the results are not statistically significant. Furthermore, it was found that price elasticity of demand for alcohol is -0.44, meaning that a 10% increase in the price of alcohol would produce a 4.4% decrease in consumption. A policy of price increases, for example, with a tax increase, applied to both cigarettes and alcohol, could have a positive effect on public health through reductions in consumption of both goods. However, this measure would not be sufficient to bridge gaps in prevalence measures and health outcomes between sex and other population groups, given the observed difference in the sensitivity of consumption to price variations.

  2. Meta-Analysis of the Oil Price Elasticity of the GDP for Policy Analysis: Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leiby, Paul Newsome [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, David Charles [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Uria Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Megan M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Given the important role of oil in economic activities, policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential damage to the economy from oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe shocks. Such estimates are needed to quantify the economic costs of oil price shocks, and to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative policy responses. Although research on the economic impacts of oil price shocks is extensive and has generally found that large increases in oil prices exert negative economic impacts, the range of estimates, summarized by the oil price elasticity of the GDP or other aggregate measure of economic activity, is very wide. There are also conditions under which the relationship between the oil price and the economy could be positive. The range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States is typified by averages from the studies of Hamilton (2005, 2012) and Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), in which the implied elasticities were -0.014 to - 0.069 and +0.004 to -0.052, respectively. We employ a meta-regression approach to systematically summarize available estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for oil importing economies, and examine the role of key factors. The resulting regression model was used to estimate the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States. Based on this we estimate the mean elasticity for the United States at -0.0238, with a 68% confidence interval of -0.0075 to -0.0402, four quarters after a shock.

  3. A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, José M.; López-Otero, Xiral

    2017-01-01

    Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods. Since the 1970s, a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but sizeable, empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of (in some cases policy-related) energy price changes. It uses meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy, in general, as well as for specific products, i.e., electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil. - Highlights: • An updated and wider meta-analysis on price elasticities of energy demand. • Energy goods are shown to be price inelastic both in the short and long-term. • Results are relevant for a proper design and implementation of energy policies. • Our results refer to energy, as a whole, and specific energy goods.

  4. Alcohol price elasticities in control and license states in the United States, 1982-99.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trolldal, Björn; Ponicki, William

    2005-08-01

    The demand for alcohol has been demonstrated repeatedly to be sensitive to price changes. However, estimated price elasticities vary by study region and over time. One explanation for these variations might be that different countries or parts of countries have had different alcohol control systems. The hypothesis addressed in this study was that a regulated market leads to higher transaction costs associated with purchasing alcohol, which in turn increases the full price of the beverages (the nominal cash price plus transaction costs). As a result, the cash price of alcohol represents a smaller part of the full price in a highly regulated market. Assuming that customers respond primarily to changes in full price, the demand for alcohol should be less sensitive to changes in cash price where regulation is stricter. This study examined whether variations in price elasticities were a function of the different regulatory systems in control and license states in the United States during the period 1982-99. Time-series cross-sectional analyses (in 50 states over 18 years) were conducted. Elasticities were estimated using a multiplicative model based upon first-differences of time-series within states. Disposable income and other socio-demographic variables were used as control variables. All data were obtained from archival sources. The demand for spirits and beer were significantly more sensitive to price changes in license states than in control states. The estimated price elasticity for wine sales was also somewhat larger in license states, but not significantly so. The lower price elasticities for spirits and beer in the control states support the hypothesis that customers respond primarily to changes in the full price of alcohol.

  5. Price Recall, Bertrand Paradox and Price Dispersion With Elastic Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carvalho, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the consequence of an imprecise recall of the price by the consumers in the Bertrand price competition model for a homogeneous good. It is shown that firms can exploit this weakness and charge prices above the competitive price. This markup increases for rougher recall of the

  6. Money flexibility, price elasticity, and elasticity of marginal utility of consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Malakhov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The development of G.Stigler’s original model of search describes the mathematical relationship between the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, the price elasticity, and the elasticity of the marginal utility of money income with respect to increase in the price of living and/or to inflation. This relationship can be used not only in economics of well-being but also in microeconomics where the increase in the price of living, i.e., in purchase price, can make consumption “bad” ...

  7. The elasticity of substitution of superlative price indices

    OpenAIRE

    Petter Frenger

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: The paper presents a method for computing the curvature implicit in the use of superlative price indices. It extends the quadratic lemma and allows us to compute the elasticity of substitution of the underlying preferences in the direction of the observed price change for the Törnqvist and the quadratic mean of order r indices. It derives the expressions for the directional shadow elasticity of substitution and applies the results to the Norwegian CPI data base. Ke...

  8. Circulation Price Elasticity in the Daily Newspaper Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotta, Gerald L.; Taylor, Michael Lee

    Pricing of subscriptions and single copies has historically been arbitrary. Evidence indicates that the newspaper industry has tended to overestimate the elasticity of demand for newspaper circulation. This study analyzed price changes, circulation changes, and population changes for all daily newspapers in the United States between 1970 and 1975.…

  9. Reference-based transitions in short-run price elasticity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.H. Pauwels (Koen); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); S. Srinivasan (Shuba)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractMarketing literature has long recognized that price response need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on reference price type, asymmetric thresholds and sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. In this paper, we introduce smooth

  10. Price elasticity of demand for psychiatric consultation in a Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: This paper addresses price elasticity of demand (PED) in a region where most patients make payments for consultations out of pocket. PED is a measure of the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of goods or services to changes in price. The study was done in the context of an outpatient psychiatric clinic in ...

  11. Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frondel, M.

    2004-01-01

    Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities-AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES)-with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57(1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES. (author)

  12. Empirical assessment of energy-price policies: the case for cross-price elasticities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frondel, Manuel

    2004-01-01

    Evaluations of energy-price policies are necessarily based on measures of the substitution of energy and non-energy inputs. Facing a variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises which measure would be appropriate. Apparently, for a long time, this question has not been at issue: Allen's elasticities of substitution (AES) have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. This paper's main contribution is an instructive survey of the origin of substitution measures and of the trinity of empirical substitution elasticities - AES, cross-price elasticities, and the Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES) - with particular emphasis on their interpretations and the perspectives that will be captured by these measures. This survey clarifies why classical cross-price elasticities are to be preferred for many practical purposes. Berndt and Wood's (Rev. Econom. Stat. 57 (1975) 259) frequently applied data set of US manufacturing is used to illustrate why assessments of energy-price policies would be better based on cross-price elasticities like the energy-price elasticity of capital, rather than on AES or MES

  13. Industrial and residential electricity demand dynamics in Japan: How did price and income elasticities evolve from 1989 to 2014?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Nan; Mogi, Gento

    2017-01-01

    This study estimates the price and income elasticities of industrial and residential electricity demand in Japan with the annual data from 1989 to 2014. A time varying parameter (TVP) model with the Kalman filter is applied to monitor the evolution of consumer behaviors in the “post-bubble” period given the exogenous shock (financial crisis in 2008) and the structural breaks (electricity deregulation and Fukushima Daiichi crisis). The TVP model can provide a robust estimation of elasticities and can detect the outliers and the structural breaks. The results suggest that both industrial and residential consumers become less sensitive to price after the electricity deregulation and the financial crisis, and more sensitive to price after the Fukushima Daiichi crisis. Especially the industrial sector is less sensitive to price after the retail deregulation. By contrast, the income elasticities of industrial and residential sector consumers are stable during the examined period. Results also indicate that a negative relationship exists between the price elasticity of electricity demand and the price level of electricity after the electric sector deregulation. Some insights on the further electric sector reform and the environmental taxation in Japan are also provided. - Highlights: • A time varying parameter model is calculated with the Kalman filter. • Income elasticities are stable while price elasticities are time-varying. • Industrial sector is less sensitive to price change than residential sector. • Negative relationship between price elasticity and price level is found.

  14. Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria. A multivariate cointegration approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwayemi, Akin; Adenikinju, Adeola; Babatunde, M. Adetunji

    2010-01-01

    This paper formulates and estimates petroleum products demand functions in Nigeria at both aggregative and product level for the period 1977 to 2006 using multivariate cointegration approach. The estimated short and long-run price and income elasticities confirm conventional wisdom that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price. However, the price and income elasticities of demand varied according to product type. Kerosene and gasoline have relatively high short-run income and price elasticities compared to diesel. Overall, the results show petroleum products to be price and income inelastic. (author)

  15. Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria. A multivariate cointegration approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwayemi, Akin; Adenikinju, Adeola; Babatunde, M. Adetunji [Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan (Nigeria)

    2010-01-15

    This paper formulates and estimates petroleum products demand functions in Nigeria at both aggregative and product level for the period 1977 to 2006 using multivariate cointegration approach. The estimated short and long-run price and income elasticities confirm conventional wisdom that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price. However, the price and income elasticities of demand varied according to product type. Kerosene and gasoline have relatively high short-run income and price elasticities compared to diesel. Overall, the results show petroleum products to be price and income inelastic. (author)

  16. A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); Nijkamp, Peter [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); The Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO), postbus 93138 - 2509 AC Den Haag (Netherlands); Pels, Eric [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-09-15

    Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)

  17. A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric

    2008-01-01

    Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)

  18. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

    2011-01-01

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: → The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. → Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. → We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. → The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. → Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  19. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamil, Faisal, E-mail: fsljml@hotmail.com [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Ahmad, Eatzaz, E-mail: eatzaz@qau.edu.pk [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2011-09-15

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: > The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. > Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. > We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. > The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. > Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  20. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  1. Price elasticity of demand: An overlooked concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An all-too-common mistake in analyzing the uranium market is to assume that demand for uranium is driven only by the design and operational parameters of nuclear power plants. Because it is generally accepted that demand for uranium is inelastic, not much attention has been given to how prices can indirectly affect demand. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the factors that are most sensitive to uranium prices, and to show how they alter uranium demand

  2. Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vladislav Kargin

    2003-01-01

    If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator is also consistent. Keywords: $\\epsilon$-entropy, non-parametric estimation, pricing kernel, inverse problems.

  3. The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inglesi-Lotz, R.

    2011-01-01

    In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation. To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter. Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (-71.8% in the 1990s and -94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations. Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of - cheaper - energy. - Highlights: → The price elasticity of South Africa's electricity demand (1980-2005) is examined. → The Kalman filter methodology is used to show elasticity changes over time. → Decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption over the years is found. → The higher the prices of electricity were, the higher the sensitivity of consumption. → If electricity prices increase, consumers will choose to consume more efficiently.

  4. The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inglesi-Lotz, R., E-mail: roula.inglesi@up.ac.za [Department of Economics, EMS Building, University of Pretoria, Gauteng 0002 (South Africa)

    2011-06-15

    In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation. To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter. Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (-71.8% in the 1990s and -94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations. Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of - cheaper - energy. - Highlights: > The price elasticity of South Africa's electricity demand (1980-2005) is examined. > The Kalman filter methodology is used to show elasticity changes over time. > Decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption over the years is found. > The higher the prices of electricity were, the higher the sensitivity of consumption. > If electricity prices increase, consumers will choose to consume more efficiently.

  5. On Teaching Price Elasticity of Demand and Change in Revenue due to Price Change -- A Synthesis with and without Calculus

    OpenAIRE

    Jong-Shin Wei

    2013-01-01

    Price elasticity of demand measures how much, in terms of percentage change, the quantity demanded responds to a change in price. In this pedagogical note, first we intuitively introduce the very first notion of price elasticity, which is a directional measure because it describes the impact of an arbitrary change in price from one to another on the percentage change in quantity demanded. Next, we show how this measure becomes "point" price elasticity of demand when demand is linear. Finally,...

  6. R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucke, D.; Schröder, Philipp; D., Schumacher,

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors...... with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

  7. ELASTICITY OF CORN PRICE TRANSMISION AND ITS IMPLICATION TO FARMERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Muslim

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Corn has important roles to Indonesian economy both for staple foods and for price transmission to other products. The high domestic demand for corn compared to its domestic production has made corn imports continue to grow. This research is aimed to know the elasticity of price transmission and its implication to corn’s farmers. The results of analysis show that corn price transmission is inelastic. The coefficient shows that corn market is oligopsony under the imperfect competition market. To help the corn farmers, the government has to provide fertilizer subsidy and farm credit with low interest rates, as well as impose import tariff on corn. Keywords: Corn, Elasticity of price transmission, oligopsony, imperfect competition marketJEL classification numbers: Q00, Q12, Q18

  8. An analysis of price competitiveness of CNG (compressed natural gas) versus gasoline: estimation of the elasticities of demand by CNG in a recent period in Brazil; Uma analise da competitividade de preco do GNV (Gas Natural Veicular) frente a gasolina: estimacao das elasticidades da demanda por GNV no Brasil no periodo recente

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iootty, Mariana; Pinto Junior, Helder; Roppa, Bruna; Biasi, Guilherme de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

    2004-07-01

    One of the main determinants to the expansion of natural gas on the Brazilian domestic market is its price. Hence, it is important to analyze the price competitiveness of natural gas vis-a-vis its competitors. The current paper focuses on the market of natural gas in vehicles (the compressed natural gas - CNG), and uses co-integration techniques to estimate the price-elasticity of CNG, the cross-elasticity of CNG and gasoline, and the income-elasticity. The results suggest that price is a relevant factor in the long-run, while in the short-run income is the most significant determinant of the demand variation. In addition, the paper also shows an imperfect substitutability between CNG and gasoline. (author)

  9. Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mewton, Ross T.; Cacho, Oscar J.

    2011-01-01

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of ±68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

  10. Green Power voluntary purchases: Price elasticity and policy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mewton, Ross T., E-mail: rtmewton@hotmail.co [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales.

  11. Green Power voluntary purchases. Price elasticity and policy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mewton, Ross T. [University of New England (Australia); Cacho, Oscar J. [School of Business Economics and Public Policy, School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351 (Australia)

    2011-01-15

    Green Power schemes offer electricity from renewable energy sources to customers for a higher price than ordinary electricity. This study examines the demand characteristics of Green Power in Australia and policies which could increase its sales. A sample of 250 pooled time series and cross sectional observations was used to estimate a statistically significant elasticity of demand for Green Power with respect to price of -0.96 with a 95% confidence interval of {+-}68%. The wide variation in market penetration between jurisdictions and between countries for Green Power, and the low awareness of Green Power found by surveys indicate that Green Power sales could be increased by appropriate marketing and government policies. The most cost effective means to increase sales was found to be advertising campaigns although only one Australian example was found, in the state of Victoria in 2005. It was also found that full tax deductibility of the Green Power premium to residential customers, exemption from the Goods and Services Tax and a tax rebate for Green Power are all probably less cost effective for promoting sales than direct government purchase of Green Power, in terms of cost per unit of increased sales. (author)

  12. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa. A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. (author)

  13. Economic analysis of the water demand in the hotels and restaurants sector: Shadow prices and elasticities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angulo, Ana; Atwi, Majed; Barberán, Ramón; Mur, Jesús

    2014-08-01

    Despite the growing economic importance of tourism, and its impact on relative water shortage, little is known about the role that water plays in the productive process of hotels and restaurants and, therefore, the possible implications of water demand management policy for this sector. This study aims to fill this gap. It is based on the microdata of 676 firms in the sector, operating in the city of Zaragoza (Spain) for a 12 year period. Based on the Translog cost function, we estimate the shadow price of water in the short run and, from a long-run perspective, its direct price elasticity, its cross elasticities relative to labor, capital, and supplies, and its elasticity with respect to the level of output. The results obtained show that water provides sector firms returns that are on average higher than its price, although in the case of hotels the margin is really narrow. This situation provides policy makers with a margin for applying price increases without affecting the sector's viability, with some caution in the case of hotels. Water demand elasticity equals -0.38 in the case of hotels, but it is not significant in the case of restaurants and bar-cafes; hence, only in hotels is there potential for influencing water use patterns, encouraging the resource's conservation through pricing policy. Moreover, capital is a substitutive factor of water, and the elasticity of water with respect to output is 0.40, all of which should also be considered by policy makers in water resource management.

  14. Price elasticity of on- and off-premises demand for alcoholic drinks: A Tobit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Heng; Livingston, Michael; Room, Robin; Callinan, Sarah

    2016-06-01

    Understanding how price policies will affect alcohol consumption requires estimates of the impact of price on consumption among different types of drinkers and across different consumption settings. This study aims to estimate how changes in price could affect alcohol demand across different beverages, different settings (on-premise, e.g., bars, restaurants and off-premise, e.g., liquor stores, supermarkets), and different levels of drinking and income. Tobit analysis is employed to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities of alcohol demand among 11 subcategories of beverage based on beverage type and on- or off-premise supply, using cross-sectional data from the Australian arm of the International Alcohol Control Survey 2013. Further elasticity estimates were derived for sub-groups of drinkers based on their drinking and income levels. The results suggest that demand for nearly every subcategory of alcohol significantly responds to its own price change, except for on-premise spirits and ready-to-drink spirits. The estimated demand for off-premise beverages is more strongly affected by own price changes than the same beverages in on-premise settings. Demand for off-premise regular beer and off-premise cask wine is more price responsive than demand for other beverages. Harmful drinkers and lower income groups appear more price responsive than moderate drinkers and higher income groups. Our findings suggest that alcohol price policies, such as increasing alcohol taxes or introducing a minimum unit price, can reduce alcohol demand. Price appears to be particularly effective for reducing consumption and as well as alcohol-related harm among harmful drinkers and lower income drinkers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Depressive symptoms, smoking, and cigarette price elasticity: results from a population-based survey in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Hung-Hao; Chiang, Tung-Liang

    2009-01-01

    To understand the association between depressive symptoms and smoking. In addition, we investigate how smokers with and without depressive symptoms may respond to cigarette price change differently. We used data drawn from a nationally representative survey in Taiwan. Totally, 13,030 male adults were included in the analysis. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Taiwanese depression questionnaire. A logistic regression model was estimated to examine the odds ratio of smoking for those with depressive symptoms versus those without depressive symptoms. Focused on smokers, the ordinary least squares multivariate regression method was used to estimate the cigarette price elasticity. Compared to those without depressive symptoms, those with depressive symptoms were more likely to smoke (44.5 vs. 50.1%) and consume more cigarettes per day (18.4 vs. 21.0). The odds ratio of smoking for those with depressive symptoms, adjusted for demographic variables, was 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.6). The cigarette price elasticity was estimated at -0.82 and -0.41 for depressive smokers and non-depressive smokers, respectively. Although the association between depression and smoking had been documented, this study contributes to previous literature by investigating the extent to which cigarette price elasticities may differ between smokers with and without depressive symptoms. Results indicate that depressive smokers are more sensitive to the change of cigarette price. Therefore, tax/price increases can also be a very effective means of tobacco control for depressive smokers.

  16. Using FRED Data to Teach Price Elasticity of Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Carbajo, Diego; Asarta, Carlos J.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss the use of Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) statistics to teach the concept of price elasticity of demand in an introduction to economics course. By using real data in its computation, they argue that instructors can create a value-adding context for illustrating and applying a foundational concept in…

  17. Using the Price Elasticity of Demand in Educational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph D.; Moracco, Judy N.

    1984-01-01

    Describes a study and methods used by Navy Campus to choose a funding arrangement that would make the best use of the money available for voluntary educational purposes. Discusses modifying the economic concept of price elasticity to the interests of educationally oriented audiences. (JOW)

  18. Does subsidy work? Price elasticity of demand for influenza vaccination among the elderly in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Masahide; Hoshi, Shu-ling; Okubo, Ichiro

    2009-08-01

    Subsidy for influenza vaccination is often provided to the elderly in order to encourage them to receive a flu shot in developed countries. However, its effect on uptake rate, i.e., price elasticity of demand, has not been well studied. Japan's decentralised vaccination programme allows observation of various pairs in price and uptake rate of flu shots among the elderly by the municipality from 2001/2002 to 2004/2005 season. We combine our sample survey data (n=281), which monitor price, subsidy and uptake rate, with published data on local characteristics in order to estimate price elasticity of demand with panel model. We find price elasticity of demand for influenza vaccine: nearly zero in nationwide, nearly zero in urban area, and -1.07 in rural area. The results question the rationale for subsidy, especially in urban area. There are cases where maintaining or increasing the level of subsidy is not an efficient allocation of finite health care resources. When organising a vaccination programme, health manager should be careful about the balance between subsidy and other efforts in order to encourage the elderly to receive shots with price elasticity in mind.

  19. The price elasticity of energy demand. The state of affairs in 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, A.; Muskens, J; Velthuijsen, J.W.

    1998-11-01

    Within the framework of further development of energy taxes it is important to investigate the validity of the present tools by means of which the effects of energy taxes can be predicted. The estimation of the price elasticity of the energy consumption is an important aspect in the use of those tools. The results of a 1990 study on the possible effects of an energy tax are re-evaluated, based on a state-of-the-art of theoretical and empirical economic science with respect to elasticities. Also attention is paid to how the elasticities, as applied in relevant energy models, must be assessed. 43 refs

  20. Price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer: findings from a US pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Michael Thomas; Browntaylor, Didra; Bluthenthal, Ricky Neville

    2006-05-01

    Our objective is to estimate the relative price elasticity of demand for malt liquor beer (MLB), regular beer, hard liquor, and a combined group of all other alcoholic beverages. Three hundred and twenty-nine alcohol consumers (mostly male) in South-Central Los Angeles answered a series of questions pertaining to expected consumption responses to hypothetical price increases. We found that based on a 10% price increase, the mean price elasticity of demand (% change in quantity demanded / % change in price) was -0.79 for MLB drinkers, -1.14 for regular beer drinkers, -1.11 for hard liquor drinkers, and -1.69 for the combined group of all other drinkers. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the personal characteristics significantly related to being a MLB drinker were older age, not working, being homeless, and a daily drinker. Daily (or nearly daily) drinkers were more likely to be married, earning lower incomes, and hard liquor drinkers. This study is the first to investigate the price elasticity of demand for MLB drinkers and other heavy alcohol consumers in poor urban neighborhoods of the US. Future research can use the methods from this pilot study to more rigorously examine and compare the price sensitivity among heavy drinking groups.

  1. Pay less, consume more? The price elasticity of home care for the disabled elderly in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roquebert, Quitterie; Tenand, Marianne

    2017-09-01

    Little is known about the price sensitivity of demand for home care of the disabled elderly. We partially fill this knowledge gap by using administrative data on the beneficiaries of the main French home care subsidy program in a department and exploiting interindividual variation in provider prices. We address the potential endogeneity of prices by taking advantage of the unequal spatial coverage of providers and instrumenting price by the number of municipalities served by a provider. We estimate a price elasticity of around -0.4 that is significantly different from both 0 and -1. This less than proportionate response of consumption to price has implications for the efficiency and redistributive impact of variation in the level of copayments in home care subsidy schemes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel, E-mail: zirame@unisa.ac.z [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: {yields}The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. {yields} The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. {yields} There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  3. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: →The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. → The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. → There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  4. In search of a corrected prescription drug elasticity estimate: a meta-regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemmill, Marin C; Costa-Font, Joan; McGuire, Alistair

    2007-06-01

    An understanding of the relationship between cost sharing and drug consumption depends on consistent and unbiased price elasticity estimates. However, there is wide heterogeneity among studies, which constrains the applicability of elasticity estimates for empirical purposes and policy simulation. This paper attempts to provide a corrected measure of the drug price elasticity by employing meta-regression analysis (MRA). The results indicate that the elasticity estimates are significantly different from zero, and the corrected elasticity is -0.209 when the results are made robust to heteroskedasticity and clustering of observations. Elasticity values are higher when the study was published in an economic journal, when the study employed a greater number of observations, and when the study used aggregate data. Elasticity estimates are lower when the institutional setting was a tax-based health insurance system.

  5. Estimating Hedonic Prices for Stellenbosch wine

    OpenAIRE

    Sanja Lutzeyer

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates a hedonic price function for Stellenbosch wines to determine the association between market value and different characteristics of these wines. In such a hedonic price function, the price of a bottle of wine is ascribed to the implicit value of its attributes. Besides contributing to both South African and international wine pricing literature, the benefits of developing a hedonic wine pricing model extend to numerous players in the wine industry. Consumers are provided w...

  6. Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

    2015-12-09

    The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Data from the 2011-2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101,662 Indian households were used. Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (-0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (-0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were -0.832 in the poorest group and -0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (-0.557) and middle (-0.4537) groups. Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and revenue generation. A broad spectrum rise in tax rates across all products is critical for

  7. Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Setting Data from the 2011–2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101 662 Indian households were used. Participants Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. Primary outcome measures The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Results Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (−0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (−0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were −0.832 in the poorest group and −0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (−0.557) and middle (−0.4537) groups. Conclusions Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and

  8. On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2017-01-01

    The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance model is not a martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the price for which put-call parity holds and the price that represents the lowest cost of

  9. On the multiplicity of option prices under CEV with positive elasticity of variance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2014-01-01

    The discounted stock price under the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model is a strict local martingale when the elasticity of variance is positive. Two expressions for the European call price then arise, namely the risk-neutral call price and an alternative price that is linked to the unique

  10. China's medical savings accounts: an analysis of the price elasticity of demand for health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hao

    2017-07-01

    Although medical savings accounts (MSAs) have drawn intensive attention across the world for their potential in cost control, there is limited evidence of their impact on the demand for health care. This paper is intended to fill that gap. First, we built up a dynamic model of a consumer's problem of utility maximization in the presence of a nonlinear price schedule embedded in an MSA. Second, the model was implemented using data from a 2-year MSA pilot program in China. The estimated price elasticity under MSAs was between -0.42 and -0.58, i.e., higher than that reported in the literature. The relatively high price elasticity suggests that MSAs as an insurance feature may help control costs. However, the long-term effect of MSAs on health costs is subject to further analysis.

  11. Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

    2017-07-01

    During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

  12. Optimal Electricity Charge Strategy Based on Price Elasticity of Demand for Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Xu, Daidai; Zang, Chuanzhi

    The price elasticity is very important for the prediction of electricity demand. This paper mainly establishes the price elasticity coefficient for electricity in single period and inter-temporal. Then, a charging strategy is established based on these coefficients. To evaluate the strategy proposed, simulations of the two elastic coefficients are carried out based on the history data of a certain region.

  13. Understanding Heterogeneity in Price Elasticities in the Demand for Alcohol for Older Individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayyagari, Padmaja; Deb, Partha; Fletcher, Jason; Gallo, William; Sindelar, Jody L.

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for alcohol using Health and Retirement Study data. To account for unobserved heterogeneity in price responsiveness, we use finite mixture models. We recover two latent groups, one is significantly responsive to price, but the other is unresponsive. The group with greater responsiveness is disadvantaged in multiple domains, including health, financial resources, education and perhaps even planning abilities. These results have policy implications. The unresponsive group drinks more heavily, suggesting that a higher tax would fail to curb the negative alcohol-related externalities. In contrast, the more disadvantaged group is more responsive to price, thus suffering greater deadweight loss, yet this group consumes fewer drinks per day and might be less likely to impose negative externalities. PMID:22162113

  14. Willingness to pay and price elasticities of demand for energy-efficient appliances: Combining the hedonic approach and demand systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org

    2011-12-15

    This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.

  15. The Price Elasticity of Specialty Drug Use: Evidence from Cancer Patients in Medicare Part D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeah Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

    2017-12-01

    Specialty drugs can bring substantial benefits to patients with debilitating conditions, such as cancer, but their costs are very high. Insurers/payers have increased patient cost-sharing for specialty drugs to manage specialty drug spending. We utilized Medicare Part D plan formulary data to create the initial price (cost-sharing in the initial coverage phase in Part D), and estimated the total demand (both on- and off-label uses) for specialty cancer drugs among elderly Medicare Part D enrollees with no low-income subsidies (non-LIS) as a function of the initial price. We corrected for potential endogeneity associated with plan choice by instrumenting the initial price of specialty cancer drugs with the initial prices of specialty drugs in unrelated classes. We report three findings. First, we found that elderly non-LIS beneficiaries with cancer were less likely to use a Part D specialty cancer drug when the initial price was high: the overall price elasticity of specialty cancer drug spending ranged between -0.72 and -0.75. Second, the price effect in Part D specialty cancer drug use was not significant among newly diagnosed patients. Finally, we found that use of Part B-covered cancer drugs was not responsive to the Part D specialty cancer drug price. As the demand for costly specialty drugs grows, it will be important to identify clinical circumstances where specialty drugs can be valuable and ensure access to high-value treatments.

  16. Short- and long-run time-of-use price elasticities in Swiss residential electricity demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. This analysis has been performed using aggregate data at the city level for 22 Swiss cities for the period 2000-2006. For this purpose, we estimated two log-log demand equations for peak and off-peak electricity consumption using static and dynamic partial adjustment approaches. These demand functions were estimated using several econometric approaches for panel data, for example LSDV and RE for static models, and LSDV and corrected LSDV estimators for dynamic models. The attempt of this empirical analysis has been to highlight some of the characteristics of the Swiss residential electricity demand. The estimated short-run own price elasticities are lower than 1, whereas in the long-run these values are higher than 1. The estimated short-run and long-run cross-price elasticities are positive. This result shows that peak and off-peak electricity are substitutes. In this context, time differentiated prices should provide an economic incentive to customers so that they can modify consumption patterns by reducing peak demand and shifting electricity consumption from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Empirical analysis on the residential demand for electricity by time-of-day. → Estimators for dynamic panel data. → Peak and off-peak residential electricity are substitutes.

  17. Price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawad, Mohammed; Lee, John Tayu; Glantz, Stanton; Millett, Christopher

    2018-01-23

    To systematically review the price elasticity of demand of non-cigarette tobacco products. Medline, Embase, EconLit and the Web of Science without language or time restrictions. Two reviewers screened title and abstracts, then full texts, independently and in duplicate. We based eligibility criteria on study design (interventional or observational), population (individuals or communities without geographic restrictions), intervention (price change) and outcome (change in demand). We abstracted data on study features, outcome measures, statistical approach, and single best own- and cross-price elasticity estimates with respect to cigarettes. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis for estimates of similar product, outcome and country income level. For other studies we reported median elasticities by product and country income level. We analysed 36 studies from 15 countries yielding 125 elasticity estimates. A 10% price increase would reduce demand by: 8.3% for cigars (95% CI 2.9 to 13.8), 6.4% for roll your owns (95% CI 4.3 to 8.4), 5.7% for bidis (95% CI 4.3 to 7.1) and 2.1% for smokeless tobacco (95% CI -0.6 to 4.8). Median price elasticities for all ten products were also negative. Results from few studies that examined cross-price elasticity suggested a positive substitution effect between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products. There is sufficient evidence in support of the effectiveness of price increases to reduce consumption of non-cigarette tobacco products as it is for cigarettes. Positive substitutability between cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco products suggest that tax and price increases need to be simultaneous and comparable across all tobacco products. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Price elasticity of the demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and energy dense food in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero-López, Carlos M; Unar-Munguía, Mishel; Colchero, M Arantxa

    2017-02-10

    Chile is the second world's largest per capita consumer of caloric beverages. Caloric beverages are associated with overweight, obesity and other chronic diseases. The objective of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy dense foods in urban areas in Chile in order to evaluate the potential response of households' consumption to changes in prices. We used microdata from the VII Family Budget Survey 2012-2013, which collects information on expenditures made by Chilean urban households on items such as beverages and foods. We estimated a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System Model to derive own and cross price elasticities of milk, coffee, tea and other infusions, plain water, soft drinks, other flavored beverages, sweet snacks, sugar and honey, and desserts. We considered the censored nature of the data and included the Inverse Mills Ratio in each equation of the demand system. We estimated a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and a two-part model as sensitivity analysis. We found an own price-elasticity of -1.37 for soft drinks. This implies that a price increase of 10% is associated with a reduction in consumption of 13.7%. We found that the rest of food and beverages included in the demand system behave as substitutes for soft drinks. For instance, plain water showed a cross-price elasticity of 0.63: a 10% increase in price of soft drinks could lead to an increase of 6.3% of plain water. Own and cross price elasticities were similar between models. The demand of soft drinks is price sensitive among Chilean households. An incentive system such as subsidies to non-sweetened beverages and tax to soft drinks could lead to increases in the substitutions for other healthier beverages.

  19. Price elasticity of the demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and energy dense food in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos M. Guerrero-López

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chile is the second world’s largest per capita consumer of caloric beverages. Caloric beverages are associated with overweight, obesity and other chronic diseases. The objective of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy dense foods in urban areas in Chile in order to evaluate the potential response of households’ consumption to changes in prices. Methods We used microdata from the VII Family Budget Survey 2012–2013, which collects information on expenditures made by Chilean urban households on items such as beverages and foods. We estimated a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System Model to derive own and cross price elasticities of milk, coffee, tea and other infusions, plain water, soft drinks, other flavored beverages, sweet snacks, sugar and honey, and desserts. We considered the censored nature of the data and included the Inverse Mills Ratio in each equation of the demand system. We estimated a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and a two-part model as sensitivity analysis. Results We found an own price-elasticity of −1.37 for soft drinks. This implies that a price increase of 10% is associated with a reduction in consumption of 13.7%. We found that the rest of food and beverages included in the demand system behave as substitutes for soft drinks. For instance, plain water showed a cross-price elasticity of 0.63: a 10% increase in price of soft drinks could lead to an increase of 6.3% of plain water. Own and cross price elasticities were similar between models. Conclusions The demand of soft drinks is price sensitive among Chilean households. An incentive system such as subsidies to non-sweetened beverages and tax to soft drinks could lead to increases in the substitutions for other healthier beverages.

  20. Hybrid Simulation Modeling to Estimate U.S. Energy Elasticities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baylin-Stern, Adam C.

    This paper demonstrates how an U.S. application of CIMS, a technologically explicit and behaviourally realistic energy-economy simulation model which includes macro-economic feedbacks, can be used to derive estimates of elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and autonomous energy efficiency index (AEEI) parameters. The ability of economies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on the potential for households and industry to decrease overall energy usage, and move from higher to lower emissions fuels. Energy economists commonly refer to ESUB estimates to understand the degree of responsiveness of various sectors of an economy, and use estimates to inform computable general equilibrium models used to study climate policies. Using CIMS, I have generated a set of future, 'pseudo-data' based on a series of simulations in which I vary energy and capital input prices over a wide range. I then used this data set to estimate the parameters for transcendental logarithmic production functions using regression techniques. From the production function parameter estimates, I calculated an array of elasticity of substitution values between input pairs. Additionally, this paper demonstrates how CIMS can be used to calculate price-independent changes in energy-efficiency in the form of the AEEI, by comparing energy consumption between technologically frozen and 'business as usual' simulations. The paper concludes with some ideas for model and methodological improvement, and how these might figure into future work in the estimation of ESUBs from CIMS. Keywords: Elasticity of substitution; hybrid energy-economy model; translog; autonomous energy efficiency index; rebound effect; fuel switching.

  1. The Calculation of Weighted Price Elasticity of Tax: Turkey (1998-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin YILMAZ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries” suggested in the first studies which examine the impacts of the inflation on tax revenues, will be reevaluated for Turkey in the period of 1998-2013. We use Turkish tax and price index data for calculating the weighted price elasticity of tax. Via the method of dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS, the long run weighted price elasticity of tax system is guessed. The importance of this study is the fact that this is first study intended to the calculation of the weighted price elasticity of tax for Turkey. In this sense, it will be instructive study for the reconsideration of the assumption of “the weighted price elasticity of tax is a unit in the developing countries”.

  2. Estimation of demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption behaviour in Beijing, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Liu, Y.Y.; Xia, T.; Zhou, B.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption in Beijing is studied. • The electricity price is of great importance to Beijing’s energy market stability. • Industrial sectors have a large electricity self-elasticity and cross-elasticity. • When consuming electricity, customers pay more attention to natural gas price. • Analysis of demand response to energy price can provide guidance to energy policies. - Abstract: The energy price system in Beijing has not fully exploited customers’ price elasticity, and has a negative impact on achieving the goals of energy saving. This paper analyses the response behaviours of different customers to typical energy prices. As for electricity self-elasticity, the range of the primary, secondary, tertiary industry and residents are −0.026 to −0.033, −0.045 to −0.059, −0.035 to −0.047 and −0.024 to −0.032, respectively. As regards self-elasticity on coal, the range of the primary, secondary, tertiary industry and residents are −0.030 to −0.037, −0.066 to −0.093, −0.055 to −0.072 and −0.034 to −0.051, respectively. The self-elasticities on oil and natural gas are very weak. As for cross-elasticity, when consuming electricity and oil, customers mainly focus on the prices of natural gas, which are 0.185 and 0.112. When consuming coal and natural gas, customers are concerned about the electricity prices, and their cross-elasticities are 0.03 and 0.36, respectively. The estimation of demand response to energy price signals in energy consumption behaviours can provide a decision support for formulating rational energy price policies

  3. Price elasticity of the demand for sugar sweetened beverages and soft drinks in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colchero, M A; Salgado, J C; Unar-Munguía, M; Hernández-Ávila, M; Rivera-Dommarco, J A

    2015-12-01

    A large and growing body of scientific evidence demonstrates that sugar drinks are harmful to health. Intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is a risk factor for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Mexico has one of the largest per capita consumption of soft drinks worldwide and high rates of obesity and diabetes. Fiscal approaches such as taxation have been recommended as a public health policy to reduce SSB consumption. We estimated an almost ideal demand system with linear approximation for beverages and high-energy food by simultaneous equations and derived the own and cross price elasticities for soft drinks and for all SSB (soft drinks, fruit juices, fruit drinks, flavored water and energy drinks). Models were stratified by income quintile and marginality index at the municipality level. Price elasticity for soft drinks was -1.06 and -1.16 for SSB, i.e., a 10% price increase was associated with a decrease in quantity consumed of soft drinks by 10.6% and 11.6% for SSB. A price increase in soft drinks is associated with larger quantity consumed of water, milk, snacks and sugar and a decrease in the consumption of other SSB, candies and traditional snacks. The same was found for SSB except that an increase in price of SSB was associated with a decrease in snacks. Higher elasticities were found among households living in rural areas (for soft drinks), in more marginalized areas and with lower income. Implementation of a tax to soft drinks or to SSB could decrease consumption particularly among the poor. Substitutions and complementarities with other food and beverages should be evaluated to assess the potential impact on total calories consumed. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A comprehensive examination of own- and cross-price elasticities of tobacco and nicotine replacement products in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Gwarnicki, Cezary; Xu, Xin; Caraballo, Ralph S; Wada, Roy; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2018-04-21

    While much is known about the demand for cigarettes, research on the demand for non-cigarette tobacco products and the cross-price impacts among those products is limited. This study aims to comprehensively examine the own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for tobacco and nicotine replacement products (NRPs) in the U.S. We analyzed market-level quarterly data on sales and prices of 15 different types of tobacco products and NRPs from 2007 to 2014, compiled from retail store scanner data. Fixed effects models with controls were used to estimate their own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities between cigarettes and the other 14 products. Our results show that, except for cigars, the demand for combustible tobacco products was generally elastic, with the estimated own-price elasticity >1 (10% increase in prices reduces sales by >10%). The own-price elasticities for smokeless tobacco products were smaller than those for combustible tobacco, although not always significant. The demand for electronic cigarettes and NRPs was found to be elastic. The cross-price elasticities with respect to cigarettes were positive for cigarillos, little cigars, loose tobacco, pipe tobacco, electronic cigarettes and NRPs, but only results for little cigars, loose tobacco, pipe tobacco, and dissolvable lozenges were consistently significant. Our findings suggest demand for tobacco products and NRPs was responsive to changes in their own prices. Substitutions or positive cross-price impacts between cigarettes and certain other products exist. It is important that tobacco control policies take into account both own- and cross-price impacts among tobacco products and NRTs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Long term fuel price elasticity: effects on mobility tool ownership and residential location choice - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erath, A.; Axhausen, K. W.

    2010-04-15

    This comprehensive final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) examines the long-term effects of fuel price elasticity. The study analyses how mobility tool usage and ownership as well as residence location choice are affected by rising fuel costs. Based on econometric models, long-term fuel price elasticity is derived. The authors quote that the demand reactions to higher fuel prices mainly observed are the reduction of mileage and the consideration of smaller-engined and diesel-driven cars. As cars with natural gas powered engines and electric drives were hardly considered in the survey, the results of the natural gas model can, according to the authors, only serve as a trend. No stable model could be estimated for the demand and usage of electric cars. A literature overview is presented and the design of the survey is discussed, whereby socio-demographical variables and the effects of price and residence changes are discussed. Modelling of mobility tool factors and results obtained are looked at. Finally, residence choice factors are modelled and discussed. Several appendices complete the report.

  6. Price elasticity of demand for psychiatric consultation in a Nigerian psychiatric service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esan, Oluyomi

    2016-12-01

    This paper addresses price elasticity of demand (PED) in a region where most patients make payments for consultations out of pocket. PED is a measure of the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of goods or services to changes in price. The study was done in the context of an outpatient psychiatric clinic in a sub -Saharan African country. The study was performed at the University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan, Nigeria. Aggregate data were collected on weekly clinic attendance over a 24-month period October 2008 - September 2010 representing 12 months before, to 12months after a 67% increase in price of outpatient psychiatric consultation. The average weekly clinic attendance prior to the increase was compared to the average clinic attendance after the price increase. Arc-PED for consultation was also estimated. Clinic attendance dropped immediately and significantly in the weeks following the price increase. There was a 34.4% reduction in average weekly clinic attendance. Arc-PED for psychiatric consultation was -0.85. In comparison to reported PED on health care goods and services, this study finds a relatively high PED in psychiatric consultation following an increase in price of user fees of psychiatric consultation.

  7. A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brons, M.R.E.; Nijkamp, P.; Pels, E.; Rietveld, P.

    2008-01-01

    Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

  8. A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brons, Martijn; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric; Rietveld, Piet

    2006-01-01

    Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

  9. Child Safety Seats on Commercial Airliners: A Demonstration of Cross-Price Elasticities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Shane; Weisman, Dennis L.; Li, Dong; Grimes, Paul, Ed.

    2008-01-01

    The cross-price elasticity concept can be difficult for microeconomics students to grasp. The authors provide a real-life application of cross-price elasticities in policymaking. After a debate that spanned more than a decade and included input from safety engineers, medical personnel, politicians, and economists, the Federal Aviation…

  10. Analysis on Price Elasticity of Energy Demand in East Asia: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications for ASEAN and East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Han PHOUMIN; Shigeru KIMURA

    2014-01-01

    This study uses time series data of selected ASEAN and East Asia countries to investigate the patterns of price and income elasticity of energy demand. Applying a dynamic log-linear energy demand model, both short-run and long-run price and income elasticities were estimated by country. The study uses three types of dependent variable “energy demand” such as total primary energy consumption (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFEC) and total final oil consumption (TFOC) to regress on its ...

  11. Estimating Hedonic Price Indices for Ground Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S Estimating Hedonic Price Indices for Ground Vehicles (Presentation) David M. Tate Stanley...gathering and maintaining the data needed , and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any...currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE JUN 2015 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Estimating Hedonic Price

  12. Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

  13. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuerkekul, Berna; Unakitan, Goekhan

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture has an important role in every country's development. Particularly, the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth. Productivity, in turn, is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input. Therefore, the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process. Following the importance of energy in Turkish agriculture, this study aims to estimate the long- and short-run relationship of energy consumption, agricultural GDP, and energy prices via co-integration and error correction (ECM) analysis. Annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities. According to ECM analysis, for the diesel demand model, the long-run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1.47 and -0.38, respectively. For the electricity demand model, income and price elasticities were calculated at 0.19 and -0.72, respectively, in the long run. Briefly, in Turkey, support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture, increase competitiveness in international markets, and balance farmers' income. - Research highlights: → We estimate the long and short run elasticities for diesel and electricity demands in agriculture. → The long-run income and price elasticities calculated as 1.47 and 0.38, respectively for diesel. → The long run Income and price elasticities calculated as 0.19 and 0.72 for electricity.

  15. A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuerkekul, Berna, E-mail: berna.turkekul@ege.edu.t [Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ege University, 35100 Izmir (Turkey); Unakitan, Goekhan, E-mail: unakitan@nku.edu.t [Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag (Turkey)

    2011-05-15

    Agriculture has an important role in every country's development. Particularly, the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth. Productivity, in turn, is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input. Therefore, the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process. Following the importance of energy in Turkish agriculture, this study aims to estimate the long- and short-run relationship of energy consumption, agricultural GDP, and energy prices via co-integration and error correction (ECM) analysis. Annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities. According to ECM analysis, for the diesel demand model, the long-run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1.47 and -0.38, respectively. For the electricity demand model, income and price elasticities were calculated at 0.19 and -0.72, respectively, in the long run. Briefly, in Turkey, support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture, increase competitiveness in international markets, and balance farmers' income. - Research highlights: {yields} We estimate the long and short run elasticities for diesel and electricity demands in agriculture. {yields} The long-run income and price elasticities calculated as 1.47 and 0.38, respectively for diesel. {yields} The long run Income and price elasticities calculated as 0.19 and 0.72 for electricity.

  16. Estimating the Price Elasticity of Demand for Cannabis: A Geographical and Crowdsourced Approach || La estimación de la elasticidad en los precios de la demanda de cannabis: un enfoque geográfico y basado en la colaboración abierta distribuida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halcoussis, Dennis

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent legalizations of cannabis at the state level in the United States have given rise to renewed interest in the price elasticity of demand for cannabis and implications for likely state excise and sales tax revenues. We use crowdsourced data on prices, qualities, and consumption of cannabis across regional markets in the United States to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cannabis. We use distances from growing areas to the major markets as a proxy for cost variations. We obtain an estimate of the price elasticity of demand for cannabis of -0.418, which suggests that legalizing and taxing recreational cannabis use would be lucrative for government treasuries. || Las recientes legalizaciones del cannabis a nivel estatal en los Estados Unidos han dado lugar a un renovado interés en la elasticidad en los precios de la demanda de cannabis y sus implicaciones en los ingresos por impuestos estatales y sobre ingresos por ventas. Utilizamos datos en colaboración abierta sobre precios, calidades y consumo de cannabis en los mercados regionales de los Estados Unidos para estimar la elasticidad en los precios de la demanda de cannabis. Utilizamos distancias desde las zonas de cultivo hasta los principales mercados como sustituto de las variaciones de los costos. Se obtiene una estimación de la elasticidad en los precios de la demanda de cannabis de -0,418, lo que sugiere que la legalización y el gravamen del cannabis para uso recreativo sería lucrativo para los erarios públicos.

  17. Estimating elasticities of demand for natural gas in the European household sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsen, Odd Bjarte; Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar

    2005-12-15

    This paper analyzes the residential natural gas demand in 12 European countries using a dynamic loglinear demand model, which allows for country-specific elasticity estimates in the short-run and long run. The explanatory variables include a heating degree days index, real prices of natural gas, light fuel oil, electricity, and real private income per capita. Our data set is a country panel with annual observations from 1978 to 2002. Short panel data sets like this represents a challenge for econometric estimation, as standard estimators often provide implausible estimates of elasticities. The demand model is estimated using both homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators, with a particular focus on the shrinkage estimator (an empirical Bayes estimator). The shrinkage short-run own-price and income elasticity tend to be very inelastic, but with greater long-run responsiveness. We provide support for employing a heterogeneous estimator such as the shrinkage estimator. But the empirical results also motivate a further scrutiny of its properties. We also consider the problem of reporting t-statistics of shrinkage estimators in the empirical Bayes (EB) framework and the problem of using the delta method to approximate the elasticities. The delta method biases upward the t-statistics of the shrinkage elasticities. An alternative approach, the bootstrap sampling methods obtained more reliable confidence intervals. We call into question - is the traditional way of constructing confidence intervals or t-statistics of the shrinkage estimator to naive. (Author)

  18. The analysis of indiference and the price elasticity of demand between different categories of agricultural products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukadinović Predrag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the analysis of the price elasticity of demand of four different categories of agricultural products in the Republic of Serbia was described. Differentiating the price and demand of these products by sales points, and using the least squares approximation method, the elasticity for all different agricultural categories was expressed in the functional form. According to this, the coefficients of elasticity of the price and demand were computed and between different agricultural categories were analyzed. The results we obtained show that the market of agricultural products in Serbia is mostly inelastic because the coefficients of inelasticity and indifference of demand to change of prices, are dominant. The influence of factors on the elasticity of demand that are not of price character, proved to be very pronounced. The relationship of the two segments of agricultural market (markets and shops was also analysed and it was demonstrated that these two segments have a slight correlation.

  19. Differences in price elasticities of demand for health insurance: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendzialek, Jonas B; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    Many health insurance systems apply managed competition principles to control costs and quality of health care. Besides other factors, managed competition relies on a sufficient price-elastic demand. This paper presents a systematic review of empirical studies on price elasticity of demand for health insurance. The objective was to identify the differing international ranges of price elasticity and to find socio-economic as well as setting-oriented factors that influence price elasticity. Relevant literature for the topic was identified through a two-step identification process including a systematic search in appropriate databases and further searches within the references of the results. A total of 45 studies from countries such as the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland were found. Clear differences in price elasticity by countries were identified. While empirical studies showed a range between -0.2 and -1.0 for optional primary health insurance in the US, higher price elasticities between -0.6 and -4.2 for Germany and around -2 for Switzerland were calculated for mandatory primary health insurance. Dutch studies found price elasticities below -0.5. In consideration of all relevant studies, age and poorer health status were identified to decrease price elasticity. Other socio-economic factors had an unclear impact or too limited evidence. Premium level, range of premiums, homogeneity of benefits/coverage and degree of forced decision were found to have a major influence on price elasticity in their settings. Further influence was found from supplementary insurance and premium-dependent employer contribution.

  20. Switching gains and health plan price elasticities: 20 years of managed competition reforms in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douven, Rudy; Katona, Katalin; T Schut, Frederik; Shestalova, Victoria

    2017-11-01

    In this paper we estimate health plan price elasticities and financial switching gains for consumers over a 20-year period in which managed competition was introduced in the Dutch health insurance market. The period is characterized by a major health insurance reform in 2006 to provide health insurers with more incentives and tools to compete, and to provide consumers with a more differentiated choice of products. Prior to the reform, in the period 1995-2005, we find a low number of switchers, between 2 and 4% a year, modest average total switching gains of 2 million euros per year and short-term health plan price elasticities ranging from -0.1 to -0.4. The major reform in 2006 resulted in an all-time high switching rate of 18%, total switching gains of 130 million euros, and a high short-term price elasticity of -5.7. During 2007-2015 switching rates returned to lower levels, between 4 and 8% per year, with total switching gains in the order of 40 million euros per year on average. Total switching gains could have been 10 times higher if all consumers had switched to one of the cheapest plans. We find short-term price elasticities ranging between -0.9 and -2.2. Our estimations suggest substantial consumer inertia throughout the entire period, as we find degrees of choice persistence ranging from about 0.8 to 0.9.

  1. A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multistage energy conversion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, R.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases. (author)

  2. A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, Robert

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases

  3. The pricing behavior comparison of Canada and Australia exporter in wheat international market using Pricing to Market (PTM) and Residual Demand Elasticity (RDE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibowo, R. P.; Sumono; Iddrisu, Y.; Darus, M.; Sihombing, L. P.; Jufri

    2018-02-01

    This paper try to identify and examined the degree of market power on wheat international market by 2 major exporting countries comprising Canada and Australia by using the Pricing to Market (PTM) method and Residual Demand Elasticity (RDE) method. The PTM method found that Canada impose noncompetitive strategy by applying price discrimination and apply market power to their importing. Different results come from Australian exporter as they are not using their market power to the importing. Conflicting result arise from estimation using RDE and PTM method suggest that the need to extend the theoretical model of both model by expand its economic and econometric model to have consistent expected result theoretically and empirically.

  4. Income inequality and price elasticity of market demand: the case of crossing Lorenz curves

    OpenAIRE

    Ibragimov, M; Ibragimov, R; Kattuman, Paul Antony; Ma, J

    2017-01-01

    This paper extends Ibragimov and Ibragimov (Econ Theory 32:579–587, 2007) in which the effect of changes income inequality on the price elasticity of market demand is characterized for the class of income distribution changes occurring through non-intersecting Lorenz curve shifts. We derive sufficient conditions for increase/decrease in price elasticity of market demand, under general changes in income distribution, allowing Lorenz curves to intersect as they shift. We conclude by drawing out...

  5. Understanding Price Elasticities to Inform Public Health Research and Intervention Studies: Key Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, Nhung; Genç, Murat; Blakely, Tony

    2013-01-01

    Pricing policies such as taxes and subsidies are important tools in preventing and controlling a range of threats to public health. This is particularly so in tobacco and alcohol control efforts and efforts to change dietary patterns and physical activity levels as a means of addressing increases in noncommunicable diseases. To understand the potential impact of pricing policies, it is critical to understand the nature of price elasticities for consumer products. For example, price elasticities are key parameters in models of any food tax or subsidy that aims to quantify health impacts and cost-effectiveness. We detail relevant terms and discuss key issues surrounding price elasticities to inform public health research and intervention studies. PMID:24028228

  6. Understanding price elasticities to inform public health research and intervention studies: key issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, Nhung; Wilson, Nick; Genç, Murat; Blakely, Tony

    2013-11-01

    Pricing policies such as taxes and subsidies are important tools in preventing and controlling a range of threats to public health. This is particularly so in tobacco and alcohol control efforts and efforts to change dietary patterns and physical activity levels as a means of addressing increases in noncommunicable diseases. To understand the potential impact of pricing policies, it is critical to understand the nature of price elasticities for consumer products. For example, price elasticities are key parameters in models of any food tax or subsidy that aims to quantify health impacts and cost-effectiveness. We detail relevant terms and discuss key issues surrounding price elasticities to inform public health research and intervention studies.

  7. Analysis of transmission elasticity of international prices for sugar prices in Brazil: an application of the Structural Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Antonio Margarido

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyze the spatial elasticity (or horizontal of price transmission between international sugar prices and the average price received by the Brazilian exporter of sugar, using the Structural Model. The data used are from January/2004 to November/2015. As a result, variations of 1% in the international sugar price are transmitted to the average price received by Brazilian sugar exporters with a magnitude of 0.3% on average, setting inelastic relationship between the two variables and, consequently, the non-occurrence of the law of one price. So, there are mechanisms in this market that are hindering the full functioning of the arbitration. This situation is not unusual, because the sugar is one of the most commercially protected product and suffer much interference.

  8. Public transportation research study : price elasticity of rideshare : commuter fringe benefits & parking cash-out

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    The goal of this research project was to determine the price elasticity of rideshare with specific objectives of helping to assess what the effect on ridership would be if the effective price paid by the traveler was substantially reduced (i.e., incr...

  9. Estimating organic, local, and other price premiums in the Hawaii fluid milk market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

    2015-04-01

    With retail scanner data, we applied hedonic price modeling to explore price premiums for organic, local, and other product attributes of fluid milk in Hawaii. Within the context of revealed preference, this analysis of organic and local attributes, under a single unified framework, is significant, as research in this area is deficient in the existing literature. This paper finds both organic and local attributes delivered price premiums over imported, conventional, whole fluid milk. However, the estimated price premium for organic milk (24.6%) is significantly lower than findings in the existing literature. Likewise, the price premium for the local attribute is estimated at 17.4%, again substantially lower compared with an earlier, stated preference study in Hawaii. Beyond that, we estimated a robust price premium of 19.7% for nutritional benefits claimed. The magnitude of this estimated coefficient reinforces the notion that nutrition information on food is deemed beneficial and valuable. Finally, package size measures the influence of product weight. With each larger package size, the estimate led to a corresponding larger price discount. This result is consistent with the practice of weight discounting that retailers usually offer with fresh packaged food. Additionally, we estimated a fairly high Armington elasticity of substitution, which suggests a relatively high degree of substitution between local and imported fluid milk when their relative price changes. Overall, this study establishes price premiums for organic, local, and nutrition benefits claimed for fluid milk in Hawaii. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Price elasticity matrix of demand in power system considering demand response programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xinyao; Hui, Hongxun; Yang, Shengchun; Li, Yaping; Ding, Yi

    2018-02-01

    The increasing renewable energy power generations have brought more intermittency and volatility to the electric power system. Demand-side resources can improve the consumption of renewable energy by demand response (DR), which becomes one of the important means to improve the reliability of power system. In price-based DR, the sensitivity analysis of customer’s power demand to the changing electricity prices is pivotal for setting reasonable prices and forecasting loads of power system. This paper studies the price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD). An improved PEMD model is proposed based on elasticity effect weight, which can unify the rigid loads and flexible loads. Moreover, the structure of PEMD, which is decided by price policies and load types, and the calculation method of PEMD are also proposed. Several cases are studied to prove the effectiveness of this method.

  11. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2016-07-19

    There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

  12. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilma E. Waterlander

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Methods/Design The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM study aims to: I derive accurate and precise food PE values; II quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. Discussion The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential

  13. Price elasticity of demand for psychiatric consultation in a Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Department of Psychiatry, University of Ibadan, University College Hospital, PMB 5116, Ibadan, Nigeria. ... changes on utilization of health services is the Price Elas- ticity of Demand .... World Bank), over 52% of the population earns below.

  14. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  15. Testing viability of cross subsidy using time-variant price elasticities of industrial demand for electricity: Indian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chattopadhyay, Pradip

    2007-01-01

    Indian electric tariffs are characterized by very high rates for industrial and commercial classes to permit subsidized electric consumption by residential and agricultural customers. We investigate the viability of this policy using monthly data for 1997-2003 on electric consumption by a few large industrial customers under the aegis of a small distribution company in the state of Uttar Pradesh. For a given price/cost ratio, it can be shown that if the cross-subsidizing class' electricity demand is sufficiently elastic, increasing the class' rates fail to recover incremental cross-subsidy necessary to support additional revenues for subsidized classes. This suboptimality is tested by individually estimating time-variant price-elasticities of demand for these industrial customers using Box-Cox and linear regressions. We find that at least for some of these customers, cross-subsidy was suboptimal prior to as late as October 2001, when rates were changed following reforms

  16. Testing viability of cross subsidy using time-variant price elasticities of industrial demand for electricity: Indian experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chattopadhyay, Pradip [New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission, 21 South Fruit Street, Suite 10, Concord NH 03301 (United States)]. E-mail: pradip.chattopadhyay@puc.nh.gov

    2007-01-15

    Indian electric tariffs are characterized by very high rates for industrial and commercial classes to permit subsidized electric consumption by residential and agricultural customers. We investigate the viability of this policy using monthly data for 1997-2003 on electric consumption by a few large industrial customers under the aegis of a small distribution company in the state of Uttar Pradesh. For a given price/cost ratio, it can be shown that if the cross-subsidizing class' electricity demand is sufficiently elastic, increasing the class' rates fail to recover incremental cross-subsidy necessary to support additional revenues for subsidized classes. This suboptimality is tested by individually estimating time-variant price-elasticities of demand for these industrial customers using Box-Cox and linear regressions. We find that at least for some of these customers, cross-subsidy was suboptimal prior to as late as October 2001, when rates were changed following reforms.

  17. PRICE ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY OF BOTTLED QUALITY WHITE WINE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel SYROVÁTKA

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the supply of the Czech producers of bottled quality white wine. Namely, a dependence of their sales of this wine category on the market price of bottled quality white wine was examined. Monthly data from the CZSO and SZIF database, years 2004–2012, were used for the price-supply analysis. Price-supply reactions of the Czech wine producers were investigated through two-stage cointegration method developed by Engle and Granger. Short-term and long-term price elasticity of studied market supply was based on the error correction model designed and statistically verified by the authors.

  18. Becker's rational addiction theory: An empirical test with price elasticities for distilled spirits in Denmark 1911-31.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skog, Ole-Jørgen; Melberg, Hans Olav

    2006-10-01

    To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future changes in prices are anticipated). Time-series analysis, first of aggregate sales of distilled spirits and prices, controlled for gross national product (GNP), and secondly of deaths from delirium tremens. Denmark 1911-31. Price changes were very large in the period 1916-18 due to shortages during World War I, and the Danish case can be conceived as a natural experiment. No evidence for lagged price effects in the expected direction was found. On the contrary, the evidence pointed in the opposite direction. The immediate reduction in sales following rising prices are, to some degree, counteracted by an adjustment in the opposite direction the following year. The delirium tremens data confirm this pattern. Becker's theory is not confirmed. Several possible explanations are discussed. If the pattern observed in these data is representative of a more general mechanism, current price elasticity estimates may be too high, by ignoring lagged compensatory effects.

  19. Teaching Price, Income, and Cross Elasticity of Demand: Another Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahka, William J.

    One of the most important, yet difficult concepts to teach in an undergraduate course in intermediate microeconomics is the all-embracing concept of elasticity of demand. This paper details a four part teaching approach developed to make this most important aspect of microeconomic theory more understandable. Part 1 develops the approach for…

  20. New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

    2011-12-01

    Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0

  1. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  2. A Note on R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Philipp J.H.; Schumacher, Dieter; Lucke, Dorothea

    2005-01-01

    This note explores the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and the R&D intensity of the product. We introduce the concept of R&D intensity into a standard Dixit-Stiglitz/Krugman-type setting. R&D activity is treated as a fixed cost of production. Within this framework, sectors...... with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

  3. The Pricing of European Options Under the Constant Elasticity of Variance with Stochastic Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Bounghun; Choi, Sun-Yong; Kim, Jeong-Hoon

    This paper considers a hybrid risky asset price model given by a constant elasticity of variance multiplied by a stochastic volatility factor. A multiscale analysis leads to an asymptotic pricing formula for both European vanilla option and a Barrier option near the zero elasticity of variance. The accuracy of the approximation is provided in a rigorous manner. A numerical experiment for implied volatilities shows that the hybrid model improves some of the well-known models in view of fitting the data for different maturities.

  4. Price elasticity and pharmaceutical selection: the influence of managed care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domino, Marisa Elena; Salkever, David S

    2003-07-01

    State Medicaid programs are turning increasingly to managed care to control expenditures, although the types of managed care programs in use have changed dramatically. Little is known about the influence of the shifting Medicaid managed care arena on treatment decisions. This paper investigates factors affecting the selection of treatments for depression by providers participating in either of two Medicaid managed care programs. Of particular interest is the influence of medication price on the choice of treatment, since one vehicle through which managed care organizations can reduce total expenditures is by increasing the price sensitivity of participating providers. We take a new approach by phrasing the problem as a discrete choice, using a nested multinomial logit model for the analyses. Contrary to earlier literature, we find some evidence that physicians in both programs do take price into consideration when selecting among treatment options. HMO providers in particular demonstrate increased price sensitivity in the two most commonly prescribed categories of antidepressants. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

    OpenAIRE

    Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

    2016-01-01

    System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

  6. Econometric estimation of Armington elasticities for selected agricultural products in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abiodun Ogundeji

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Price transmission behaviour is used to model the impacts of different trade regimes; if this behaviour is not modelled correctly, the trade impacts can be either under- or overestimated.  Due to the lack of elasticities of substitution pertaining to selected imported and domestically produced agricultural products in South Africa, ‘Armington’ elasticities, using quarterly data from 1995-2006 and three different models, based on the time series properties of the data, are estimated in this paper.  Considering the long-run elasticity results, soyabeans (whether broken or not and meat of bovine animals (frozen are the most sensitive import products, followed by maize, meat of bovine animals (fresh or chilled, sunflower seeds, and wheat and meslin. Regarding the short-run elasticity, soyabeans are the most sensitive import product, followed by meat of bovine animals (fresh or chilled; meat of swine (fresh, chilled or frozen is the least sensitive import product.

  7. The impact of introducing patient co-payments in Germany on the use of IVF and ICSI: a price-elasticity of demand assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, M P; Griesinger, G; Ledger, W; Postma, M J

    2009-11-01

    Authorities concerned by rising healthcare costs have a tendency to target reproductive treatments because of the perception that infertility is a low priority. In 2004 German health authorities introduced a 50% co-payment for patients, in an effort to save cost. We explored the impact of this pricing policy on the utilization of reproductive treatments in Germany. Using aggregated annual in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycle data in Germany, we evaluated the relationship between changes in the number of cycles in relation to changes in costs faced by consumers following the introduction of a patient co-payment from 'no fees' to 1500-2000 euros by estimating the short-run price-elasticity of demand. The impact of introducing patient co-payments for IVF/ICSI on the likelihood of switching to other low-cost fertility treatments was evaluated using the cross-price elasticity methodology. RESULTS The reduction in demand for IVF and ICSI cycles in the year following the introduction of patient co-payments resulted in elasticities of -0.41 and -0.34, respectively. The price-elasticity for the combined reduction of IVF/ICSI in relation to the co-payment was estimated to be -0.36. The cross-price elasticity for clomifene was close to zero (-0.01) suggesting that demand for these interventions are independent of each other and no substitution occurred. We report price elasticities for IVF and ICSI of -0.41 and -0.34 after introducing a 500-2000 euros co-payment. These findings likely represent short-run elasticities that are likely to vary over time as factors that influence the supply and demand for fertility treatments change.

  8. Effect of price elasticity of demand in monopolies with gradient adjustment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A monopoly with isoelastic demand function is studied. •Reduced rationality monopolist uses gradient adjustment. •If marginal cost is small, increasing elasticity leads to stable dynamics. •For large marginal cost, dynamic can be unstable for both small and large elasticity. -- Abstract: We study a monopolistic market characterized by a constant elasticity demand function, in which the firm technology is described by a linear total cost function. The firm is assumed to be boundedly rational and to follow a gradient rule to adjust the production level in order to optimize its profit. We focus on what happens on varying the price elasticity of demand, studying the effect on the equilibrium stability. We prove that, depending on the relation between the market size and the marginal cost, two different scenarios are possible, in which elasticity has either a stabilizing or a mixed stabilizing/destabilizing effect

  9. Price and Income Elasticity of Australian Retail Finance: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Higgs

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper models the price and income elasticity of retail finance in Australia using aggregate quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL approach. We particularly focus on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC from 2007 onwards on retail finance demand and analyse four submarkets (period analysed in brackets: owneroccupied housing loans (Sep 1985–June 2010, term loans (for motor vehicles, household goods and debt consolidation, etc. (Dec 1988–Jun 2010, credit card loans (Mar 1990–Jun 2010, and margin loans (Sep 2000–Jun 2010. Other than the indicator lending rates and annual full-time earnings respectively used as proxies for the price and income effects, we specify a large number of other variables as demand factors, particularly reflecting the value of the asset for which retail finance demand is derived. These variously include the yield on indexed bonds as a proxy for inflation expectations, median housing prices, consumer sentiment indices as measures of consumer confidence, motor vehicle and retail trade sales, housing debt-to-housing assets as a measure of leverage, the proportion of protected margin lending, the available credit limit on credit cards, and the All Ordinaries Index. In the long run, we find significant price elasticities only for term loans and margin loans, and significant income elasticities of demand for housing loans, term loans and margin loans. We also find that the GFC only significantly affected the longrun demand for term loans and margin loans. In the short run, we find that the GFC has had a significant effect on the price elasticity of demand for term loans and margin loans. Expected inflation is also a key factor affecting retail finance demand. Overall, most of the submarkets in the analysis indicate that retail finance demand is certainly price inelastic but more income elastic than conventionally thought.

  10. Price Elasticity of Demand: An A-Level Economics Revision Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul

    1992-01-01

    Presents a review exercise requiring students to sort diagrams and descriptions of price elasticity of demand. Reports that students are given jumbled diagrams and explanations that they must arrange in proper form. Reveals that some items are designed as distractors. (SG)

  11. Tuition Elasticity of the Demand for Higher Education among Current Students: A Pricing Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Glenn A.; Whipple, Thomas W.

    1995-01-01

    A pricing model is offered, based on retention of current students, that colleges can use to determine appropriate tuition. A computer-based model that quantifies the relationship between tuition elasticity and projected net return to the college was developed and applied to determine an appropriate tuition rate for a small, private liberal arts…

  12. A Note on Aggregate Price-Level Elasticity and Supply-Side Shocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findlay, David W.

    1995-01-01

    Investigates factors that influence the short-run and long-run effects of supply-side shocks on aggregate income and tax revenues. Concludes that the long-run relationship between tax revenues and the tax rate is completely independent of price-level elasticity. (CFR)

  13. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  14. DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT TRANSFER PRICING BY APPLICATION OF THE INTERVAL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena B. Shuvalova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the application of the method of interval estimation of conformity of the transaction price the market price. A comparative analysis of interval and point estimate. Identified the positive and negative effects of using interval estimation.

  15. Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

  16. Testing and estimating time-varying elasticities of Swiss gasoline demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neto, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper is intended to test and estimate time-varying elasticities for gasoline demand in Switzerland. For this purpose, a smooth time-varying cointegrating parameters model is investigated in order to describe smooth mutations of the Swiss gasoline demand. The methodology, based on Chebyshev polynomials, is rigorously outlined. Our empirical finding states that the time-invariance assumption does not hold for long-run price and income elasticities. Furthermore they highlight that gasoline demand passed through some periods of sensitivity and non sensitivity with respect to the price. Our empirical statements are of great importance to assess the performance of a gasoline tax as an instrument for CO 2 reduction policy. Indeed, such an instrument can contribute to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases only if the demand is not fully inelastic with respect to the price. Our results suggest that such a carbon-tax would not be always suitable since the price elasticity is found not stable over time and not always significant.

  17. Resolvent estimates in homogenisation of periodic problems of fractional elasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherednichenko, Kirill; Waurick, Marcus

    2018-03-01

    We provide operator-norm convergence estimates for solutions to a time-dependent equation of fractional elasticity in one spatial dimension, with rapidly oscillating coefficients that represent the material properties of a viscoelastic composite medium. Assuming periodicity in the coefficients, we prove operator-norm convergence estimates for an operator fibre decomposition obtained by applying to the original fractional elasticity problem the Fourier-Laplace transform in time and Gelfand transform in space. We obtain estimates on each fibre that are uniform in the quasimomentum of the decomposition and in the period of oscillations of the coefficients as well as quadratic with respect to the spectral variable. On the basis of these uniform estimates we derive operator-norm-type convergence estimates for the original fractional elasticity problem, for a class of sufficiently smooth densities of applied forces.

  18. Numerical estimate of fracture parameters under elastic and elastic-plastic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soba, Alejandro; Denis, Alicia C.

    2003-01-01

    The importance of the stress intensity factor K in the elastic fracture analysis is well known. In this work three methods are developed to estimate the parameter K I , corresponding to the normal loading mode, employing the finite elements method. The elastic-plastic condition is also analyzed, where the line integral J is the relevant parameter. Two cases of interest are studied: sample with a crack in its center and tubes with internal pressure. (author)

  19. Use of Hedonic Prices to Estimate Capitalization Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Lisi

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a model of income capitalization is developed where hedonic prices play a key role in estimating the going-in capitalization rate. Precisely, the hedonic functions for rental and selling prices are introduced into a basic model of income capitalization. From the modified model, it is possible to derive a direct relationship between hedonic prices and capitalization rate. An advantage of the proposed approach is that estimation of the capitalization rate can be made without cons...

  20. List prices vs. bargain prices: which solution to estimate consumer price indices?

    OpenAIRE

    Carlo De Gregorio

    2010-01-01

    Alternative approaches to CPI surveys are here evaluated, in markets where final prices are based on some sort of price listing. Three types of surveys are compared: local surveys (LOC), with small samples and a local price collection; list price surveys (LIS), with huge samples and centralised collection; mixed surveys (MXD), in which LOC and LIS are jointly used. Based on a multiplicative pricing model, some conditions are derived to establish the relative efficiency of these approaches. Th...

  1. Automatic estimation of elasticity parameters in breast tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skerl, Katrin; Cochran, Sandy; Evans, Andrew

    2014-03-01

    Shear wave elastography (SWE), a novel ultrasound imaging technique, can provide unique information about cancerous tissue. To estimate elasticity parameters, a region of interest (ROI) is manually positioned over the stiffest part of the shear wave image (SWI). The aim of this work is to estimate the elasticity parameters i.e. mean elasticity, maximal elasticity and standard deviation, fully automatically. Ultrasonic SWI of a breast elastography phantom and breast tissue in vivo were acquired using the Aixplorer system (SuperSonic Imagine, Aix-en-Provence, France). First, the SWI within the ultrasonic B-mode image was detected using MATLAB then the elasticity values were extracted. The ROI was automatically positioned over the stiffest part of the SWI and the elasticity parameters were calculated. Finally all values were saved in a spreadsheet which also contains the patient's study ID. This spreadsheet is easily available for physicians and clinical staff for further evaluation and so increase efficiency. Therewith the efficiency is increased. This algorithm simplifies the handling, especially for the performance and evaluation of clinical trials. The SWE processing method allows physicians easy access to the elasticity parameters of the examinations from their own and other institutions. This reduces clinical time and effort and simplifies evaluation of data in clinical trials. Furthermore, reproducibility will be improved.

  2. Monetary Policy Rules, Supply Shocks, and the Price-Level Elasticity of Aggregate Demand: A Graphical Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyer, Ben L.; Maggs, Gary E.

    1995-01-01

    Utilizes two-dimensional price and output graphs to demonstrate the way that the price-level elasticity of aggregate demand affects alternative monetary policy rules designed to cope with random aggregate supply shocks. Includes graphs illustrating price-level, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nominal GDP, and nominal money supply targeting.…

  3. The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

  4. Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero-Jordan, Desiderio; Del Rio, Pablo; Jorge-Garcia, Marta; Burguillo, Mercedes

    2010-01-01

    The significant increase in passenger transport activity (cars) experienced by Spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects, including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The aim of this paper, which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport, is fourfold: (1) to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the Spanish passenger transport system and the related problems; (2) to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel; (3) to apply this model to the Spanish passenger transport sector; (4) to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model. It is claimed that, in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable, a combination of instruments is necessary. Fuel taxes play an important role within this combination. Apart from their long-term effects, the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues, which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments. (author)

  5. Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero-Jordan, Desiderio [Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid (Spain); Del Rio, Pablo [Institute for Public Goods and Policies (IPP), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC), C/Albasanz, 26-28, Madrid 28037 (Spain); Jorge-Garcia, Marta [Universidad de Leon (Spain); Burguillo, Mercedes [Universidad de Alcala (Spain)

    2010-08-15

    The significant increase in passenger transport activity (cars) experienced by Spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects, including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The aim of this paper, which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport, is fourfold: (1) to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the Spanish passenger transport system and the related problems; (2) to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel; (3) to apply this model to the Spanish passenger transport sector; (4) to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model. It is claimed that, in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable, a combination of instruments is necessary. Fuel taxes play an important role within this combination. Apart from their long-term effects, the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues, which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments. (author)

  6. Estimating the elasticity of trade: the trade share approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mauro Lanati

    2013-01-01

    Recent theoretical work on international trade emphasizes the importance of trade elasticity as the fundamental statistic needed to conduct welfare analysis. Eaton and Kortum (2002) proposed a two-step method to estimate this parameter, where exporter fixed effects are regressed on proxies for technology and wages. Within the same Ricardian model of trade, the trade share provides an alternative source of identication for the elasticity of trade. Following Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) bot...

  7. Estimation of mean-reverting oil prices: a laboratory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerksund, P.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    Many economic decision support tools developed for the oil industry are based on the future oil price dynamics being represented by some specified stochastic process. To meet the demand for necessary data, much effort is allocated to parameter estimation based on historical oil price time series. The approach in this paper is to implement a complex future oil market model, and to condense the information from the model to parameter estimates for the future oil price. In particular, we use the Lensberg and Rasmussen stochastic dynamic oil market model to generate a large set of possible future oil price paths. Given the hypothesis that the future oil price is generated by a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we obtain parameter estimates by a maximum likelihood procedure. We find a substantial degree of mean-reversion in the future oil price, which in some of our decision examples leads to an almost negligible value of flexibility. 12 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  8. Price elasticities in the German Statutory Health Insurance market before and after the health care reform of 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendzialek, Jonas B; Danner, Marion; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

    2015-05-01

    This paper investigates the change in price elasticity of health insurance choice in Germany after a reform of health insurance contributions. Using a comprehensive data set of all sickness funds between 2004 and 2013, price elasticities are calculated both before and after the reform for the entire market. The general price elasticity is found to be increased more than 4-fold from -0.81 prior to the reform to -3.53 after the reform. By introducing a new kind of health insurance contribution the reform seemingly increased the price elasticity of insured individuals to a more appropriate level under the given market parameters. However, further unintended consequences of the new contribution scheme were massive losses of market share for the more expensive sickness funds and therefore an undivided focus on pricing as the primary competitive element to the detriment of quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Multigene Genetic Programming for Estimation of Elastic Modulus of Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Mohammadi Bayazidi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new multigene genetic programming (MGGP approach for estimation of elastic modulus of concrete. The MGGP technique models the elastic modulus behavior by integrating the capabilities of standard genetic programming and classical regression. The main aim is to derive precise relationships between the tangent elastic moduli of normal and high strength concrete and the corresponding compressive strength values. Another important contribution of this study is to develop a generalized prediction model for the elastic moduli of both normal and high strength concrete. Numerous concrete compressive strength test results are obtained from the literature to develop the models. A comprehensive comparative study is conducted to verify the performance of the models. The proposed models perform superior to the existing traditional models, as well as those derived using other powerful soft computing tools.

  10. Visco-piezo-elastic parameter estimation in laminated plate structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araujo, A. L.; Mota Soares, C. M.; Herskovits, J.

    2009-01-01

    A parameter estimation technique is presented in this article, for identification of elastic, piezoelectric and viscoelastic properties of active laminated composite plates with surface-bonded piezoelectric patches. The inverse method presented uses experimental data in the form of a set of measu...

  11. Estimating commercial property prices: an application of cokriging with housing prices as ancillary information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Lorenzo, José-María; Larraz-Iribas, Beatriz; Páez, Antonio

    2009-12-01

    A vast majority of the recent literature on spatial hedonic analysis has been concerned with residential property values, with only very few examples of studies focused on commercial property prices. The dearth of studies can be attributed to some of the challenges faced in the analysis of commercial properties, in particular the scarcity of information compared to residential transactions. In order to address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of cokriging and housing prices as ancillary information to estimate commercial property prices. Cokriging takes into account the spatial autocorrelation structure of property prices, and the use of more abundant information on housing prices helps to improve the accuracy of property value estimates. A case study of Toledo in Spain, a city for which commercial activity stemming from tourism is one of the key elements of the economy in the city, demonstrates that substantial accuracy and precision gains can be obtained from the use of cokriging.

  12. Estimating Drug Costs: How do Manufacturer Net Prices Compare with Other Common US Price References?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, T Joseph; Levy, Joseph F; Slejko, Julia F; Onwudiwe, Nneka C; Perfetto, Eleanor M

    2018-05-12

    Drug costs are frequently estimated in economic analyses using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC), but what is the best approach to develop these estimates? Pharmaceutical manufacturers recently released transparency reports disclosing net price increases after accounting for rebates and other discounts. Our objective was to determine whether manufacturer net prices (MNPs) could approximate the discounted prices observed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). We compared the annual, average price discounts voluntarily reported by three pharmaceutical manufacturers with the VA price for specific products from each company. The top 10 drugs by total sales reported from company tax filings for 2016 were included. The discount observed by the VA was determined from each drug's list price, reported as WAC, in 2016. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the VA discount observed and a weighted price index was calculated using the lowest price to the VA (Weighted VA Index), which was compared with the manufacturer index. The discounted price as a percentage of the WAC ranged from 9 to 74%. All three indexes estimated by the average discount to the VA were at or below the manufacturer indexes (42 vs. 50% for Eli Lilly, 56 vs. 65% for Johnson & Johnson, and 59 vs. 59% for Merck). Manufacturer-reported average net prices may provide a close approximation of the average discounted price granted to the VA, suggesting they may be a useful proxy for the true pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) or payer cost. However, individual discounts for products have wide variation, making a standard discount adjustment across multiple products less acceptable.

  13. Estimation of effective elastic constants for grid plate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibanuma, Kiyoshi; Kuriyama, Masaaki; Okumura, Yoshikazu

    1980-07-01

    This article contains a method of estimation for the effective elastic constants of a grid plate, which is a flat perforated plate with pipes for cooling. The elastic constants of the grid plate are formulated for two symmetric axes. In the case of using OFCu(E 0 = 12500 kg/mm 2 , ν 0 = 0.34) as the material of the grid, the results are given as follows. E sub(L) = 3180 kg/mm 2 , E sub(T) = 3860 kg/mm 2 upsilon sub(LT) = 0.12, upsilon sub(TL) = 0.15 (author)

  14. Price elasticity of Swiss motor fuel demand; Elasticite-prix de la demande d'essence en Suisse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranzini, A. [Haute Ecole de Gestion de Geneve (HEG-Geneve), Centre de Recherche Appliquee en Gestion (CRAG), Carouge (Switzerland); Neto, D.; Weber, S. [Universite de Geneve, Laboratoire d' Economie Appliquee (LEA), Geneve (Switzerland)

    2009-07-15

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) by the University of Geneva takes a look at the price elasticity of motor fuel demand in Switzerland. Macro-economic data on petrol and diesel consumption is used to calculate short and long-term price elasticity. Various factors that have an influence on prices are discussed. Data for the period 1970 - 2008 is used. A method developed by Engle and Granger is used to examine short and long-term developments in this area. A large number of variables are used in mathematical models to explain price developments. The methods used are described and the results are presented in tabular form. Various external effects such the oil-price shocks and price developments in neighbouring countries are examined.

  15. Price elasticity of Swiss motor fuel demand; Elasticite-prix de la demande d'essence en Suisse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranzini, A. [Haute Ecole de Gestion de Geneve (HEG-Geneve), Centre de Recherche Appliquee en Gestion (CRAG), Carouge (Switzerland); Neto, D.; Weber, S. [Universite de Geneve, Laboratoire d' Economie Appliquee (LEA), Geneve (Switzerland)

    2009-07-15

    This report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) by the University of Geneva takes a look at the price elasticity of motor fuel demand in Switzerland. Macro-economic data on petrol and diesel consumption is used to calculate short and long-term price elasticity. Various factors that have an influence on prices are discussed. Data for the period 1970 - 2008 is used. A method developed by Engle and Granger is used to examine short and long-term developments in this area. A large number of variables are used in mathematical models to explain price developments. The methods used are described and the results are presented in tabular form. Various external effects such the oil-price shocks and price developments in neighbouring countries are examined.

  16. Poverty and price transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    A key parameter determining the welfare impact from a world market shock is the transmission elasticity which measures the average domestic response to an international price change. Many studies have estimated price transmission elasticities for a large number of countries but the variation in t...

  17. Elasticity of Vehicle Miles of Travel to Changes in the Price of Gasoline and the Cost of Driving in Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P.; Fujita, K. Sydny

    2018-03-28

    This report examines the sensitivity of annual vehicle miles of travel (VMT) of light-duty vehicles to the price of gasoline, commonly referred to as the elasticity of demand for VMT to the price of gasoline; the fuel-economy-related rebound effect is generally assumed to be of the same magnitude as the VMT elasticity of gas price or driving cost. We use detailed odometer readings from over 30 million vehicles in four urban areas of Texas, over a six-year period. We account for economic conditions over this period, as well as vehicle age. Following the literature we include fixed effects by vehicle make and individual vehicle, as well as the effect of adding an instrument to predict monthly gasoline price independent of any influences of demand for gasoline on its price.

  18. Stock price estimation using ensemble Kalman Filter square root method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karya, D. F.; Katias, P.; Herlambang, T.

    2018-04-01

    Shares are securities as the possession or equity evidence of an individual or corporation over an enterprise, especially public companies whose activity is stock trading. Investment in stocks trading is most likely to be the option of investors as stocks trading offers attractive profits. In determining a choice of safe investment in the stocks, the investors require a way of assessing the stock prices to buy so as to help optimize their profits. An effective method of analysis which will reduce the risk the investors may bear is by predicting or estimating the stock price. Estimation is carried out as a problem sometimes can be solved by using previous information or data related or relevant to the problem. The contribution of this paper is that the estimates of stock prices in high, low, and close categorycan be utilized as investors’ consideration for decision making in investment. In this paper, stock price estimation was made by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root method (EnKF-SR) and Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF). The simulation results showed that the resulted estimation by applying EnKF method was more accurate than that by the EnKF-SR, with an estimation error of about 0.2 % by EnKF and an estimation error of 2.6 % by EnKF-SR.

  19. Multi-Objective Demand Response Model Considering the Probabilistic Characteristic of Price Elastic Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengchun Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Demand response (DR programs provide an effective approach for dealing with the challenge of wind power output fluctuations. Given that uncertain DR, such as price elastic load (PEL, plays an important role, the uncertainty of demand response behavior must be studied. In this paper, a multi-objective stochastic optimization problem of PEL is proposed on the basis of the analysis of the relationship between price elasticity and probabilistic characteristic, which is about stochastic demand models for consumer loads. The analysis aims to improve the capability of accommodating wind output uncertainty. In our approach, the relationship between the amount of demand response and interaction efficiency is developed by actively participating in power grid interaction. The probabilistic representation and uncertainty range of the PEL demand response amount are formulated differently compared with those of previous research. Based on the aforementioned findings, a stochastic optimization model with the combined uncertainties from the wind power output and the demand response scenario is proposed. The proposed model analyzes the demand response behavior of PEL by maximizing the electricity consumption satisfaction and interaction benefit satisfaction of PEL. Finally, a case simulation on the provincial power grid with a 151-bus system verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed mechanism and models.

  20. Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenaar, Alexander C; Salois, Matthew J; Komro, Kelli A

    2009-02-01

    We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price-consumption relationship. Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

  1. Price elasticities, policy measures and actual developments in household energy consumption - A bottom up analysis for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonekamp, Piet G.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Netherlands it seems likely that the large number of new policy measures in the past decade has influenced the response of households to changing prices. To investigate this issue the energy trends in the period 1990-2000 have been simulated with a bottom-up model, applied earlier for scenario studies, and extensive data from surveys. For a number of alternative price cases the elasticity values found are explained using the bottom-up changes in energy trends. One finding is that the specific set of saving options defines for a great part the price response. The price effect has been analysed too in combination with the policy measures standards, subsidies and energy taxes. The simulation results indicate that the elasticity value could be 30-40% higher without these measures. (author)

  2. Regional Differences in the Price-Elasticity of Demand for Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernstein, M. A.; Griffin, J.

    2006-02-01

    At the request of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the RAND Corporation examined the relationship between energy demand and energy prices with the focus on whether the relationships between demand and price differ if these are examined at different levels of data resolution. In this case, RAND compares national, regional, state, and electric utility levels of data resolution. This study is intended as a first step in helping NREL understand the impact that spatial disaggregation of data can have on estimating the impacts of their programs. This report should be useful to analysts in NREL and other national laboratories, as well as to policy nationals at the national level. It may help them understand the complex relationships between demand and price and how these might vary across different locations in the United States.

  3. Option Price Estimations and Speculative Trading In Knowledge Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ovidiu TURCOANE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Derivatives market has known an enormous and continuous development from the late 1970s, thanks to the most celebrated Black-Scholes-Merton formula. The impact on global economy is also tremendous, but due to the high leverage of speculative option trading there is a perpetual danger of economic collapse. This paper gives a short description of knowledge society and proposes methods for option price estimation based on implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. ‘Free-lunch’ is hardly achievable if one predicts the option price using the knowledgeable information from the market and there is almost impossible to speculate, rather than to hedge, when trading option.

  4. ISSUES ON USING PRICE INDICES FOR ESTIMATING GDP AND ITS COMPONENTS AT CONSTANT PRICES ACCORDING TO SNA METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Prykhodko

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The article examines requirements and methodological approaches to the calculation of price indices (deflators in the national accounts. It gives estimation for the level and dynamics of price indicators. It proposes on improving the calculation of price indices (deflators in the national accounts of Ukraine.

  5. Premium Pricing In Health Insurance By Nelson- Aalen Estimator

    OpenAIRE

    Istikaanah, Najmah

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the using of Nelson Aalen estimators are presented to estimate transition probabilities of multistate model. Based on discrete time Markov, we will get transition matrices?é?á which the elements are transition probabilities from Nelson Aalen estimator. Because of the data that used in the construction of transition matrices are person?óÔé¼Ôäós health histories, then it can be seen as a morbidity value, which can be used to premium pricing.?é?á

  6. On the Distance Dependence of the Price Elasticity of Telecommunications Demand; Meta-analysis, and Alternative Theoretical Backgrounds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwersloot, Hans; Rietveld, Piet

    1997-01-01

    The positive correlation between the absolute price elasticity of telecommunications demand and the distance of the calling relation is well known. In this paper we first present a meta-analysis of existing studies to buttress the distance dependence empirically. The analysis confirms the existence

  7. Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices in Indonesian Corporations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenny Suardi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  applies  the  maximum  likelihood  (ML  approaches  to  implementing  the structural  model  of  corporate  bond,  as  suggested  by  Li  and  Wong  (2008,  in  Indonesian corporations.  Two  structural  models,  extended  Merton  and  Longstaff  &  Schwartz  (LS models,  are  used  in  determining  these  prices,  yields,  yield  spreads  and  probabilities  of default. ML estimation is used to determine the volatility of irm value. Since irm value is unobserved variable, Duan (1994 suggested that the irst step of ML estimation is to derive the likelihood function for equity as the option on the irm value. The second step is to ind parameters such as the drift and volatility of irm value, that maximizing this function. The irm value itself is extracted by equating the pricing formula to the observed equity prices. Equity,  total  liabilities,  bond  prices  data  and  the  irm's  parameters  (irm  value,  volatility of irm value, and default barrier are substituted to extended Merton and LS bond pricing formula in order to valuate the corporate bond.These models are implemented to a sample of 24 bond prices in Indonesian corporation during  period  of  2001-2005,  based  on  criteria  of  Eom,  Helwege  and  Huang  (2004.  The equity  and  bond  prices  data  were  obtained  from  Indonesia  Stock  Exchange  for  irms  that issued equity and provided regular inancial statement within this period. The result shows that both models, in average, underestimate the bond prices and overestimate the yields and yield spread. ";} // -->activate javascript

  8. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  9. The wage elasticity of labour supply: A synthesis of empirical estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Evers (Michiel); R.A. de Mooij (Ruud); D. Vuuren (Daniel)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper performs a meta-analysis of empirical estimates of uncompensated labour supply elasticities. For the Netherlands, we find that an elasticity of 0.5 for women and 0.1 for men is a good reflection of what the literature reveals. The elasticity for men hardly differs between

  10. Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: An empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Chuanwang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

    2016-01-01

    Urbanization, one of the most obvious characteristics of economic growth in China, has an apparent “lock-in effect” on residential energy consumption pattern. It is expected that residential sector would become a major force that drives China's energy consumption after urbanization process. We estimate price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand using data from China's Residential Energy Consumption Survey (CRECS) that covers households at different income levels and from different regional and social groups. Empirical results from the Almost Ideal Demand System model are in accordance with the basic expectations: the demands for electricity, natural gas and transport fuels are inelastic in the residential sector due to the unreasonable pricing mechanism. We further investigate the sensitivities of different income groups to prices of the three types of energy. Policy simulations indicate that rationalizing energy pricing mechanism is an important guarantee for energy sustainable development during urbanization. Finally, we put forward suggestions on energy pricing reform in the residential sector based on characteristics of China's undergoing urbanization process and the current energy consumption situations.

  11. A Scale Elasticity Measure for Directional Distance Function and its Dual: Theory and DEA Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Zelenyuk

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we focus on scale elasticity measure based on directional distance function for multi-output-multi-input technologies, explore its fundamental properties and show its equivalence with the input oriented and output oriented scale elasticity measures. We also establish duality relationship between the scale elasticity measure based on the directional distance function with scale elasticity measure based on the profit function. Finally, we discuss the estimation issues of the scale...

  12. PRICE TRANSMISSION AND HOUSEHOLDS DEMAND ELASTICITY FOR FROZEN FISH UNDER FUEL SUBSIDY REFORM IN DELTA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achoja Felix Odemero

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Fuel subsidy removal is assumed to translate to general increase in the cost of operating business such as fish marketing.The response of price of fish and corresponding demand elasticity are welfare issues worthy of investigation in Nigeria. The present study evaluates price transmission in fish marketing system by analysing the response of fish market indices to fuel subsidy reform in Nigeria. Primary data collected with structured questionnaire from purposively selected 78 frozen fish marketers, were analysed with descriptive statistics and regression model. A test of hypothesis shows a significant price transmission of about 100% (P < 0.05. Marketing cost increased by 31.8% and profitability dropped by 24.20%, confirming negative effect of new price regime. The result further revealed a 0.05% drop in quantity of frozen fish demanded by households. It was recommended that economic measures should be introduced by the government to cushion the effect of fuel policy removal.

  13. Estimation of a hedonic pricing model for Medigap insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robst, John

    2006-12-01

    This paper uses a unique database to examine premiums paid by beneficiaries for Medigap supplemental coverage. Average premiums charged by insurers are reported, as well as premiums by enrollee age and gender, and additional policy characteristics. Marginal prices for Medigap benefits are estimated using hedonic price regressions. In addition, the paper considers how additional policy characteristics and geographic differences in the use and cost of medical care affect premiums. A comprehensive database on premiums paid by beneficiaries for newly issued Medigap policies in the year 2000 along with state-level characteristics. Hedonic pricing equations are used to estimate implicit prices for Medigap benefits. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services contracted for the creation of a detailed database on Medigap premiums. Data were collected in three stages. First, letters were sent directly to insurers requesting premium data. Second, letters were directly to state insurance commissioner's offices requesting premium data. Last, each state insurance commissioner's office was visited to collect missing data. With the exceptions of the part B deductible and drug benefit, Medigap supplemental insurance is priced consistent with the actuarial value of benefits offered under the standardized plans. Premiums vary substantially based on rating method, whether the policy is guaranteed issue, Medigap Select, or explicitly for smokers. Premiums increase with enrollee age, but do not vary between men and women. The relationship between premiums and enrollee age varies across rating methods. Attained-age policies show the strongest relationship between age and premiums, while community-rated premiums, by definition, do not vary with age. Medigap supplemental insurance premiums are higher in states with poorer health, greater utilization, and greater managed care penetration. Despite the high cost, Medigap plans are generally priced in accordance with the actuarial value of

  14. Estimation of a Hedonic Pricing Model for Medigap Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robst, John

    2006-01-01

    Objective This paper uses a unique database to examine premiums paid by beneficiaries for Medigap supplemental coverage. Average premiums charged by insurers are reported, as well as premiums by enrollee age and gender, and additional policy characteristics. Marginal prices for Medigap benefits are estimated using hedonic price regressions. In addition, the paper considers how additional policy characteristics and geographic differences in the use and cost of medical care affect premiums. Data Sources/Study Setting A comprehensive database on premiums paid by beneficiaries for newly issued Medigap policies in the year 2000 along with state-level characteristics. Study Design Hedonic pricing equations are used to estimate implicit prices for Medigap benefits. Data Collection/Extraction Methods The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services contracted for the creation of a detailed database on Medigap premiums. Data were collected in three stages. First, letters were sent directly to insurers requesting premium data. Second, letters were directly to state insurance commissioner's offices requesting premium data. Last, each state insurance commissioner's office was visited to collect missing data. Principal Findings With the exceptions of the part B deductible and drug benefit, Medigap supplemental insurance is priced consistent with the actuarial value of benefits offered under the standardized plans. Premiums vary substantially based on rating method, whether the policy is guaranteed issue, Medigap Select, or explicitly for smokers. Premiums increase with enrollee age, but do not vary between men and women. The relationship between premiums and enrollee age varies across rating methods. Attained-age policies show the strongest relationship between age and premiums, while community-rated premiums, by definition, do not vary with age. Medigap supplemental insurance premiums are higher in states with poorer health, greater utilization, and greater managed care

  15. Estimation of fracture parameters using elastic full-waveform inversion

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Zhendong

    2017-08-17

    Current methodologies to characterize fractures at the reservoir scale have serious limitations in spatial resolution and suffer from uncertainties in the inverted parameters. Here, we propose to estimate the spatial distribution and physical properties of fractures using full-waveform inversion (FWI) of multicomponent surface seismic data. An effective orthorhombic medium with five clusters of vertical fractures distributed in a checkboard fashion is used to test the algorithm. A shape regularization term is added to the objective function to improve the estimation of the fracture azimuth, which is otherwise poorly constrained. The cracks are assumed to be penny-shaped to reduce the nonuniqueness in the inverted fracture weaknesses and achieve a faster convergence. To better understand the inversion results, we analyze the radiation patterns induced by the perturbations in the fracture weaknesses and orientation. Due to the high-resolution potential of elastic FWI, the developed algorithm can recover the spatial fracture distribution and identify localized “sweet spots” of intense fracturing. However, the fracture azimuth can be resolved only using long-offset data.

  16. Estimated effect of alcohol pricing policies on health and health economic outcomes in England: an epidemiological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purshouse, Robin C; Meier, Petra S; Brennan, Alan; Taylor, Karl B; Rafia, Rachid

    2010-04-17

    Although pricing policies for alcohol are known to be effective, little is known about how specific interventions affect health-care costs and health-related quality-of-life outcomes for different types of drinkers. We assessed effects of alcohol pricing and promotion policy options in various population subgroups. We built an epidemiological mathematical model to appraise 18 pricing policies, with English data from the Expenditure and Food Survey and the General Household Survey for average and peak alcohol consumption. We used results from econometric analyses (256 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates) to estimate effects of policies on alcohol consumption. We applied risk functions from systemic reviews and meta-analyses, or derived from attributable fractions, to model the effect of consumption changes on mortality and disease prevalence for 47 illnesses. General price increases were effective for reduction of consumption, health-care costs, and health-related quality of life losses in all population subgroups. Minimum pricing policies can maintain this level of effectiveness for harmful drinkers while reducing effects on consumer spending for moderate drinkers. Total bans of supermarket and off-license discounting are effective but banning only large discounts has little effect. Young adult drinkers aged 18-24 years are especially affected by policies that raise prices in pubs and bars. Minimum pricing policies and discounting restrictions might warrant further consideration because both strategies are estimated to reduce alcohol consumption, and related health harms and costs, with drinker spending increases targeting those who incur most harm. Policy Research Programme, UK Department of Health. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimates of elastic plate thicknesses beneath large volcanos on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgovern, Patrick J.; Solomon, Sean C.

    1992-01-01

    Megellan radar imaging and topography data are now available for a number of volcanos on Venus greater than 100 km in radius. These data can be examined to reveal evidence of the flexural response of the lithosphere to the volcanic load. On Earth, flexure beneath large hotspot volcanos results in an annual topographic moat that is partially to completely filled in by sedimentation and mass wasting from the volcano's flanks. On Venus, erosion and sediment deposition are considered to be negligible at the resolution of Magellan images. Thus, it may be possible to observe evidence of flexure by the ponding of recent volcanic flows in the moat. We also might expect to find topographic signals from unfilled moats surrounding large volcanos on Venus, although these signals may be partially obscured by regional topography. Also, in the absence of sedimentation, tectonic evidence of deformation around large volcanos should be evident except where buried by very young flows. We use analytic solutions in axisymmetric geometry for deflections and stresses resulting from loading of a plate overlying an inviscid fluid. Solutions for a set of disk loads are superimposed to obtain a solution for a conical volcano. The deflection of the lithosphere produces an annular depression or moat, the extent of which can be estimated by measuring the distance from the volcano's edge to the first zero crossing or to the peak of the flexural arch. Magellan altimetry data records (ARCDRs) from data cycle 1 are processed using the GMT mapping and graphics software to produce topographic contour maps of the volcanos. We then take topographic profiles that cut across the annular and ponded flows seen on the radar images. By comparing the locations of these flows to the predicted moat locations from a range of models, we estimate the elastic plate thickness that best fits the observations, together with the uncertainty in that estimate.

  18. The consistent estimation of income elasticity of environmental amenities in Uruguay

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Miles; Andrés Pereyra; Máximo Rossi

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we are concerned with the estimation of income elasticities of environmental amenities. The novelty is the application of econometric methods that take into account the problem of measurement errors when estimating these elasticities, which is common in microeconomic data and is not usually considered in the applied literature related to this issue. Our aim is to discuss whether measurement errors have significant effects on income elasticities. Data from the { Expenditure Budge...

  19. Elastic Thickness Estimates for Coronae Associated with Chasmata on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogenboom, T.; Martin, P.; Housean, G. A.

    2005-01-01

    Coronae are large-scale circular tectonic features surrounded by annular ridges. They are generally considered unique to Venus and may offer insights into the differences in lithospheric structure or mantle convective pattern between Venus and Earth. 68% of all coronae are associated with chasmata or fracture belts. The remaining 32% are located at volcanic rises or in the plains. Chasmata are linear to arcuate troughs, with trough parallel fractures and faults which extend for 1000 s of kilometers. Estimates of the elastic thickness of the lithosphere (T(sub e)) have been calculated in a number of gravity/topography studies of Venus and for coronae specifically. None of these studies, however, have explored the dependence of T(sub e) on the tectonic history of the region, as implied from the interpretation of relative timing relationships between coronae and surrounding features. We examine the relationship between the local T(sub e) and the relative ages of coronae and chasmata with the aim of further constraining the origin and evolution of coronae and chasmata systems.

  20. Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra S Meier

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities.An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol; and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as

  1. Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra S.; Holmes, John; Angus, Colin; Ally, Abdallah K.; Meng, Yang; Brennan, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO “best buy” intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. Methods and Findings An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on

  2. Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra S; Holmes, John; Angus, Colin; Ally, Abdallah K; Meng, Yang; Brennan, Alan

    2016-02-01

    While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax

  3. Price Elasticity of Demand and Capacity-Restraint Transit Fare Strategy: A Case Study of Bangkok Mass Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ackchai Sirikijpanichkul

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic congestion is a chronic problem of Bangkok. Similar to other metropolises, the city perpetually seeks for alternatives to road travel. Mass rapid transit seems to be the only way out that is expected to mitigate traffic congestion in the city. However, without common fare system, travelers need to pay an initial entrance fee every time they enter each transit system. This excess cost tapers the demand and affects the efficient use of the system. This research investigates the influence of fare price on transit use which is measured by price elasticity of demand and proposes the optimum fare price if the common fare is used. The analysis is based on the findings from the stated preference survey techniques. Finally, the conclusion on fare level that encourage more patronage, maintain service quality and operator revenue is addressed.

  4. Methodological proposals for estimating the price of climate in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joly, D.; Brossard, T.; Cardot, H.; Cavailhes, J.; Hilal, M.; Wavresky, P.

    2009-09-01

    A current project linking economists, geographers and mathematicians evaluates the price of climate in France. The economic data are mainly from housing surveys conducted by the INSEE. It consists in a total of 9,640 buyers of single-detached houses, 2,658 buyers of apartments, 3,447 tenants of single-detached houses and 8,615 tenants of apartments. Each transaction is located in space by X-Y geographical coordinates. The climatic data are derived from the Meteo-France data base (normal 1970-2000). They are related to (1) mean annual temperature, (2) mean temperature for January and July, (3) number of days with temperatures of less than -5 °C in January and more than 30 °C in July, (4) mean monthly rainfall, (5) rainfall in January and July, (6) number of days' precipitation in January and July. These data are recorded by a network of scattered weather stations. A raster GIS composed by ten data layers derived from a DEM and remote sensing images at 250 m resolution is used to initiate interpolations. Four types of interpolation techniques were tested. First we used regressions between climatic data (variables to be explained) and explanatory variables stored into the GIS. Second we used ordinary kriging; third a double step method linking regression and then kriging of the regression residuals. Finally we used a local interpolation method. Based on standard deviation values obtained by cross validation and R² values, the comparison between the four methods shows that the last one reduces the residuals to the minimum and explains the maximum of variance. It was retained in our project to compute continuous field of the climatic data. The predicted values are then merged with the housing survey data. We use the hedonic price method (Rosen, 1974) to determine the price of climatic attributes, which are capitalized in land rents. Three econometric methods are used: a fixed-effects model estimated by OLS or PLS method and a mixed model with random intercepts. The

  5. Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

    The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

  6. Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

    OpenAIRE

    Michael T. Kiley

    2008-01-01

    I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship betwe...

  7. Aim High or Go Low? Pricing Strategies and Enrollment Effects when the Net Price Elasticity Varies with Need and Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curs, Bradley R.; Singell, Larry D., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Detailed data on individual applicants to a large public university are used to demonstrate that net price responsiveness decreases with need and ability. Enrollment effects are simulated and show a movement towards a high tuition/high aid (low tuition/low aid) policy significantly lowers (raises) tuition revenue with a modest increase (decrease)…

  8. Estimating inpatient hospital prices from state administrative data and hospital financial reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levit, Katharine R; Friedman, Bernard; Wong, Herbert S

    2013-10-01

    To develop a tool for estimating hospital-specific inpatient prices for major payers. AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases and complete hospital financial reporting of revenues mandated in 10 states for 2006. Hospital discharge records and hospital financial information were merged to estimate revenue per stay by payer. Estimated prices were validated against other data sources. Hospital prices can be reasonably estimated for 10 geographically diverse states. All-payer price-to-charge ratios, an intermediate step in estimating prices, compare favorably to cost-to-charge ratios. Estimated prices also compare well with Medicare, MarketScan private insurance, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey prices for major payers, given limitations of each dataset. Public reporting of prices is a consumer resource in making decisions about health care treatment; for self-pay patients, they can provide leverage in negotiating discounts off of charges. Researchers can also use prices to increase understanding of the level and causes of price differentials among geographic areas. Prices by payer expand investigational tools available to study the interaction of inpatient hospital price setting among public and private payers--an important asset as the payer mix changes with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. © Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. Constructing "behavioral" comparison groups: A difference-in-difference analysis of the effect of copayment based on the patient's price elasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chaohsin; Hsu, Shuofen

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that the differences-in-differences (DD) estimator is based on the assumption that in the absence of treatment, the average outcomes for the treated group and the control group will follow a common trend over time. That can be problematic, especially when the selection for the treatment is influenced by the individual's unobserved behavior correlating with the medical utilization. The aim of this study was to develop an index for controlling a patient's unobserved heterogeneous response to reform, in order to improve the comparability of treatment assignment. This study showed that a DD estimator of the reform effects can be decomposed into effects induced by moral hazard and by changes in health risk within the same treated/untreated group. This article also presented evidence that the constructed index of the price elasticity of the adjusted clinical group has good statistical properties for identifying the impact of reform. © The Author(s) 2012.

  10. The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia; Zeng, Jieyin

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the price and income elasticities of demand for gasoline in China. Our estimates of the intermediate-run price elasticity of gasoline demand range between −0.497 and −0.196, and our estimates of the intermediate-run income elasticity of gasoline demand range between 1.01 and 1.05. We also extend previous studies to estimate the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) elasticity and obtain a range from −0.882 to −0.579. - highlights: • The price elasticity of demand for gasoline in China is between −0.497 and −0.196. • The income elasticity of demand for gasoline in China is between 1.01 and 1.05. • The price elasticity of demand for VMT in China is between −0.882 and −0.579

  11. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-20

    The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  12. Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2002-01-01

    An important concern of OPEC's work is to be able to understand how much supply of oil exists in different countries, in order to help better conserve oil. This paper extends M. King Hubbert's oil production and discovery forecasting model (Hubbert, 1962), using a non-time-series cumulative discovery and production quadratic Hubbert curve and structural shift variables to model technology and regulation changes. The model can be used to determine better world oil supplies. Price is tested, to see how powerful it is for increasing or decreasing oil supply. Using a trend of cumulative production, instead of time, will help to better fix the supply elasticity with respect to price, which is shown to be very inelastic. An interesting question is whether cumulative discovery or production constitutes an I(2) variable. This paper explains that they are not I(2) variables. (Author)

  13. The Effects of Price Discrimination on the Elasticity of Demand for Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberg, Ira

    The purpose of this study was to determine what effect price discrimination (differential pricing) would have on institutional gross-fee income. Enrollment and tuition data were gathered from all schools in one particular market area for the years 1969-72. In this situation it was determined that overall demand for higher education was highly…

  14. Estimating customer preferences for new pricing products. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goett, A.A.

    1998-10-01

    This report summarizes the results of a review of various methods to analyze customer preferences for electric service pricing products. The purpose of this study was to evaluate different techniques for analyzing preferences for electric service and pricing products in a competitive retail electricity market. In this market, competing providers will offer a variety of electric services under different price structures, and customers will face the decision of choosing a single electric service provider and pricing plan. The service and price characteristics that utilities offer will largely determine their market shares and profitability. Understanding preferences will be critical to quantifying the effects of service and pricing attributes on market share and profitability in the deregulated retail electricity market

  15. Farm-retail price spread for pork in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng; Randy, Stringer; Wendy, Umberger

    2009-01-01

    The price difference between farm and retail levels is called price spread, which is constituted mostly by marketing costs and profits. From the price spread, this paper intends to estimate elasticities of price transmission for pork in Malaysia via different empirical model specifications of markup pricing model. Using data from January 1997 to December 2007, a quantitative analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads was undertaken for pork in Malaysia. It was found that retail price is the onl...

  16. Quasi-experimental taxation elasticities of US gasoline demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    Taxation elasticities provide inputs in public policy aimed at raising revenues. Using the quasi-experimental method, this paper calculates gasoline taxation elasticities for the USA over 1952-86. The medium (mean) elasticity over this period is found to be -0.075 (-0.122). However, the elasticity following the oil shock of 1973 is found to be statistically different from the pre-shock elasticity. Reasons for this change in elasticity are discussed. The implication of this analysis is that tax policies based on price elasticities, rather than on tax elasticities, might be using an inappropriate elasticity estimate and consequently misinterpreting the government's ability to raise tax revenues. (author)

  17. Estimating deficit probabilities with price-responsive demand in contract-based electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galetovic, Alexander; Munoz, Cristian M.

    2009-01-01

    Studies that estimate deficit probabilities in hydrothermal systems have generally ignored the response of demand to changing prices, in the belief that such response is largely irrelevant. We show that ignoring the response of demand to prices can lead to substantial over or under estimation of the probability of an energy deficit. To make our point we present an estimation of deficit probabilities in Chile's Central Interconnected System between 2006 and 2010. This period is characterized by tight supply, fast consumption growth and rising electricity prices. When the response of demand to rising prices is acknowledged, forecasted deficit probabilities and marginal costs are shown to be substantially lower

  18. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  19. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    -neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co......We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-kurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models' performance. Models with higher-order market moments also robustly outperform standard competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model....

  20. Can price get the monkey off our back? A meta-analysis of illicit drug demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallet, Craig A

    2014-01-01

    Because of the increased availability of price data over the past 15 years, several studies have estimated the demand for illicit drugs, providing 462 estimates of the price elasticity. Results from estimating several meta-regressions reveal that these price elasticity estimates are influenced by a number of study characteristics. For instance, the price elasticity differs across drugs, with its absolute value being smallest for marijuana, compared with cocaine and heroin. Furthermore, price elasticity estimates are sensitive to whether demand is modeled in the short-run or the long-run, measures of quantity and price, whether or not alcohol and other illicit drugs are included in the specification of demand, and the location of demand. However, a number of other factors, including the functional form of demand, several specification issues, the type of data and method used to estimate demand, and the quality of the publication outlet, have less influence on the price elasticity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. HEDONIC PRICE FUNCTION ESTIMATION FOR MOBILE PHONE IN IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Mahdi Mostafavi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is the survey of mobile price determinants by hedonic model. We have applied the hedonic price model for mobile phone market in Iran in the year of 2008. The brands conclude NOKIA, QTEK, HTC, MOTOROLA, SONY ERICSSON and SAMSUNG that comprise 193 types of handset mobile phone. The results show that in the hedonic function, the maximum amount of parameters of hedonic price function related to the following variables respectively: touch screen, hands free and connectivity tools, and the minimum amount of them are belonged to clarification of monitor images, phone volume and phone memory. Moreover, except Motorola brand the type of brand has not a significant parameter in the hedonic price function.

  2. Estimation of macroscopic elastic characteristics for hierarchical anisotropic solids based on probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolina, Irina Yu.

    2015-10-01

    Mechanical properties of a cable are of great importance in design and strength calculation of flexible cables. The problem of determination of elastic properties and rigidity characteristics of a cable modeled by anisotropic helical elastic rod is considered. These characteristics are calculated indirectly by means of the parameters received from statistical processing of experimental data. These parameters are considered as random quantities. With taking into account probable nature of these parameters the formulas for estimation of the macroscopic elastic moduli of a cable are obtained. The calculating expressions for macroscopic flexural rigidity, shear rigidity and torsion rigidity using the macroscopic elastic characteristics obtained before are presented. Statistical estimations of the rigidity characteristics of some cable grades are adduced. A comparison with those characteristics received on the basis of deterministic approach is given.

  3. Estimation of several political action effects of energy prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew B. Whitford

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This article describes how price changes helped lead to the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests on change in the legislative agenda.

  4. Demystifying patient price estimates. The advantages of transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Cheri S; Harvey, Gayla

    2015-05-01

    With the increase of high-deductible health plans, more consumers want to know the cost of their health care before they purchase services. A healthcare organization should formulate transparent price policies that: Fit with its intentions, processes, and goals. Ensure consumers are thoroughly educated about their financial responsibilities. Include the use of consumer pricing tools that help patients feel like empowered consumers. Reflect an enterprisewide culture of transparency.

  5. Own-wage labor supply elasticities: variation across time and estimation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Bargain

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There is a huge variation in the size of labor supply elasticities in the literature, which hampers policy analysis. While recent studies show that preference heterogeneity across countries explains little of this variation, we focus on two other important features: observation period and estimation method. We start with a thorough survey of existing evidence for both Western Europe and the USA, over a long period and from different empirical approaches. Then, our meta-analysis attempts to disentangle the role of time changes and estimation methods. We highlight the key role of time changes, documenting the incredible fall in labor supply elasticities since the 1980s not only for the USA but also in the EU. In contrast, we find no compelling evidence that the choice of estimation method explains variation in elasticity estimates. From our analysis, we derive important guidelines for policy simulations.

  6. Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the cpi. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

  7. An estimation of the exchange rate pass-through to prices in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Josué Fernando Cortés Espada

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates the magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Mexico. Moreover, it analyzes if the pass-through dynamics have changed in recent years. In particular, it uses a methodology that generates results consistent with the hierarchy implicit in the CPI. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through to the general price level is low and not statistically significant. However, the pass-through is positive and significant for goods prices. Furthermo...

  8. Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.

  9. HEDONIC ESTIMATION OF HOUSING MARKET PRICES IN TURKEY

    OpenAIRE

    YAYAR, Rüştü; DEMİR, Derya

    2015-01-01

    In this study, there has been aimed to determine the factors that affect the price of flats in the housing sector in Turkey with a hedonic pricing model. According to the model results, the house’s having residential swimming pool, a jacuzzi and a water tank, its being a duplex, its central heating system, its being closer to the center, the size of the house, the bathroom floor’s being vinyl or PVC, being closer to banking services and compulsory education services,  its having  cable TV, te...

  10. Study of the method to estimate the hydraulic characteristics in rock masses by using elastic wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsu, Kenta; Ohnishi, Yuzo; Nishiyama, Satoshi; Yano, Takao; Ando, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Kimitaka

    2008-01-01

    In the area of radioactive waste repository, estimating radionuclide migration through the rock mass is an important factor for assessment of the repository. The purpose of this study is to develop a method to estimate hydraulic characteristics of rock masses by using elastic wave velocity dispersion. This method is based on dynamics poroelastic relations such as Biot and BISQ theories. These theories indicate relations between velocity dispersion and hydraulic characteristics. In order to verify the validity of these theories in crystalline rocks, we performed laboratory experiments. The results of experiments show the dependency of elastic wave velocity on its frequency. To test the applicability of this method to real rock masses, we performed in-situ experiment for tuff rock masses. The results of in-situ experiment show the possibility as a practical method to estimate the hydraulic characteristics by using elastic wave velocity dispersion. (author)

  11. Estimation of fracture parameters using elastic full-waveform inversion

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Zhendong; Alkhalifah, Tariq Ali; Oh, Juwon; Tsvankin, Ilya

    2017-01-01

    regularization term is added to the objective function to improve the estimation of the fracture azimuth, which is otherwise poorly constrained. The cracks are assumed to be penny-shaped to reduce the nonuniqueness in the inverted fracture weaknesses and achieve

  12. A model to Estimate the Implicit Values of Housing Attributes by Applying the Hedonic Pricing Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TD Randeniya

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Many scholars focused on the location based attributes rather than the non-location factors in decision making on land prices. Further, new research studies have identified the importance of the non-location attributes with the location factors. Many studies suggest that, many attributes exist which affects the housing price. Since the attributes involved and dominant for a particular case differs from one situation to the other, there cannot be an exact list of attributes. Yet, identification of factors that determine housing price and their relationships and the level of influence have poorly understood in planning and property development in the context of Sri Lanka. This study attempts to address what make householders to decide on housing price and application of hedonic pricing approach to estimate the implicit price of housing attributes in context of Sri Lanka. A sample study of selected fifty (50 single house transactions in Maharagama urban neighborhood area has been utilized to illustrate the applicability of the hedonic pricing model. As a methodology, correlation analysis has been carried out to study the degree of relationship between the housing price and the independent variables. The attributes which correlate with housing prices, the study identified the most significant attributes. A model was developed to estimate the future house price by applying the pricing model which is incorporated with these attributes. A hedonic house price model derived from multiple liner regression analysis was developed for the purpose. The findings reveal that six attributes as design type of the house, distance to the local road, quality of Infrastructure, garden size, number of the bed rooms and property age are contributed to estimate the implicit value of Housing property. The model developed would be used to identify implicit values of houses located in urban neighborhood area of Sri Lanka.

  13. Two-Sided Estimates of Thermo-elastic Characteristics of Dispersed Inclusion Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Zarubin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The composites, dispersion-reinforced with inclusions from high-strength and high-modulus materials are widely used in technology. Nanostructure elements can perform the role of such inclusions as well. Possible applications of such composites in heat-stressed structures under heavy mechanical and thermal influences significantly depend on a complex of thermo-mechanical characteristics including the values of the moduli of elasticity and coefficient of linear thermal expansion. There are different approaches to construction of mathematical models that allow calculating dependences to estimate elastic characteristics of composites. Relation between thermoelastic properties of matrix and inclusions of the composite with its temperature coefficient of linear expansion is studied in less detail. Thus, attention has been insufficient in estimating a degree of reliability and a possible error of derived dependencies.A dual variation formulation of the problem of thermo-elasticity in a non-uniform solids simulating the properties and structure of the composite with dispersed inclusions, makes it possible to define two-sided limits of possible values of the volume elasticity modulus, shear modulus, and coefficient of linear thermal expansion of such composite. These limits allow us to estimate the maximum possible error, if to take a half-sum of the limit values of these parameters as the thermoelastic characteristics of the composite. Implementing this approach to find possible errors, arising when using one or another calculating dependency, improves reliability of predicted thermo-elastic characteristics as applied to existing and promising composites.

  14. Estimating the Efficiency and Impacts of Petroleum Product Pricing Reforms in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuxiong Deng

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency and effects analysis of a new pricing mechanism would have significant policy implications for the further design of a pricing mechanism in an emerging market. Unlike most of the existing literature, which focuses on the impacts to the macro-economy, this paper firstly uses an econometrics model to discuss the efficiency of the new pricing mechanism, and then establishes an augmented Phillips curve to estimate the impact of pricing reform on inflation in China. The results show that: (1 the new pricing mechanism would strengthen the linkage between Chinese oil prices and international oil prices; (2 oil price adjustments are still inadequate in China. (3 The lag in inflation is the most important factor that affects inflation, while the impact of the Chinese government’s price adjustments on inflation is limited and insignificant. In order to improve the efficiency of the petroleum products pricing mechanism and shorten lags, government should shorten the adjustment period and diminish the fluctuation threshold.

  15. Option Price Estimates for Water Quality Improvements: A Contingent Valuation Study for the Monongahela River (1985)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the Pennsylvania portion of the Monongahela River.

  16. Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Bian (Guorui); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more

  17. Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Bian (Guorui); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more

  18. Use of Bayesian Estimates to determine the Volatility Parameter Input in the Black-Scholes and Binomial Option Pricing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Wing Ho

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The valuation of options and many other derivative instruments requires an estimation of exante or forward looking volatility. This paper adopts a Bayesian approach to estimate stock price volatility. We find evidence that overall Bayesian volatility estimates more closely approximate the implied volatility of stocks derived from traded call and put options prices compared to historical volatility estimates sourced from IVolatility.com (“IVolatility”. Our evidence suggests use of the Bayesian approach to estimate volatility can provide a more accurate measure of ex-ante stock price volatility and will be useful in the pricing of derivative securities where the implied stock price volatility cannot be observed.

  19. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  20. Estimating household fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and LPG prices by census region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poyer, D.A.; Teotia, A.P.S.

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this research is to estimate individual fuel prices within the residential sector. The data from four US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, residential energy consumption surveys were used to estimate the models. For a number of important fuel types - fuel oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas - the estimation presents a problem because these fuels are not used by all households. Estimates obtained by using only data in which observed fuel prices are present would be biased. A correction for this self-selection bias is needed for estimating prices of these fuels. A literature search identified no past studies on application of the selectivity model for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. This report describes selectivity models that utilize the Dubin/McFadden correction method for estimating prices of residential fuel oil/kerosine, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West census regions. Statistically significant explanatory variables are identified and discussed in each of the models. This new application of the selectivity model should be of interest to energy policy makers, researchers, and academicians

  1. Internal strain estimation for quantification of human heel pad elastic modulus: A phantom study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holst, Karen; Liebgott, Hervé; Wilhjelm, Jens E; Nikolov, Svetoslav; Torp-Pedersen, Søren T; Delachartre, Philippe; Jensen, Jørgen A

    2013-02-01

    Shock absorption is the most important function of the human heel pad. However, changes in heel pad elasticity, as seen in e.g. long-distance runners, diabetes patients, and victims of Falanga torture are affecting this function, often in a painful manner. Assessment of heel pad elasticity is usually based on one or a few strain measurements obtained by an external load-deformation system. The aim of this study was to develop a technique for quantitative measurements of heel pad elastic modulus based on several internal strain measures from within the heel pad by use of ultrasound images. Nine heel phantoms were manufactured featuring a combination of three heel pad stiffnesses and three heel pad thicknesses to model the normal human variation. Each phantom was tested in an indentation system comprising a 7MHz linear array ultrasound transducer, working as the indentor, and a connected load cell. Load-compression data and ultrasound B-mode images were simultaneously acquired in 19 compression steps of 0.1mm each. The internal tissue displacement was for each step calculated by a phase-based cross-correlation technique and internal strain maps were derived from these displacement maps. Elastic moduli were found from the resulting stress-strain curves. The elastic moduli made it possible to distinguish eight of nine phantoms from each other according to the manufactured stiffness and showed very little dependence of the thickness. Mean elastic moduli for the three soft, the three medium, and the three hard phantoms were 89kPa, 153kPa, and 168kPa, respectively. The combination of ultrasound images and force measurements provided an effective way of assessing the elastic properties of the heel pad due to the internal strain estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Healthcare Coinsurance Elasticity Coefficient Estimation Using Monthly Cross-sectional, Time-series Claims Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoggins, John F; Weinberg, Daniel A

    2017-06-01

    Published estimates of the healthcare coinsurance elasticity coefficient have typically relied on annual observations of individual healthcare expenditures even though health plan membership and expenditures are traditionally reported in monthly units and several studies have stressed the need for demand models to recognize the episodic nature of healthcare. Summing individual healthcare expenditures into annual observations complicates two common challenges of statistical inference, heteroscedasticity, and regressor endogeneity. This paper estimates the elasticity coefficient using a monthly panel data model that addresses the heteroscedasticity and endogeneity problems with relative ease. Healthcare claims data from employees of King County, Washington, during 2005 to 2011 were used to estimate the mean point elasticity coefficient: -0.314 (0.015 standard error) to -0.145 (0.015 standard error) depending on model specification. These estimates bracket the -0.2 point estimate (range: -0.22 to -0.17) derived from the famous Rand Health Insurance Experiment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Evaluating Bounds and Estimators for Constants of Random Polycrystals Composed of Orthotropic Elastic Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berryman, J. G.

    2012-03-01

    While the well-known Voigt and Reuss (VR) bounds, and the Voigt-Reuss-Hill (VRH) elastic constant estimators for random polycrystals are all straightforwardly calculated once the elastic constants of anisotropic crystals are known, the Hashin-Shtrikman (HS) bounds and related self-consistent (SC) estimators for the same constants are, by comparison, more difficult to compute. Recent work has shown how to simplify (to some extent) these harder to compute HS bounds and SC estimators. An overview and analysis of a subsampling of these results is presented here with the main point being to show whether or not this extra work (i.e., in calculating both the HS bounds and the SC estimates) does provide added value since, in particular, the VRH estimators often do not fall within the HS bounds, while the SC estimators (for good reasons) have always been found to do so. The quantitative differences between the SC and the VRH estimators in the eight cases considered are often quite small however, being on the order of ±1%. These quantitative results hold true even though these polycrystal Voigt-Reuss-Hill estimators more typically (but not always) fall outside the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds, while the self-consistent estimators always fall inside (or on the boundaries of) these same bounds.

  4. Study design for a clinical trial to examine food price elasticity among participants in federal food assistance programs: A laboratory-based grocery store study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zach Conrad

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a protocol for a study investigating the effect of food price changes on purchasing decisions among individuals participating in federal food assistance programs and among those not participating in these programs. We use a laboratory-based grocery store design, which provides greater control over factors influencing food purchasing than in situ experiments in actual grocery stores. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on eggs because they are highly nutritious, easy to prepare, can be included in many different dishes, and are a part of a wide range of cultural food menus. The primary aim of this study is to compare the own-and cross-price elasticity of eggs between individuals participating in federal food assistance programs and those not participating in these programs. Our secondary aims are to 1 compare the own- and cross-price elasticity of eggs between overweight/obese individuals and non-overweight/obese individuals, 2 examine whether delay discounting moderates the effect of income on own- and cross-price elasticity, 3 examine whether subjective social status moderates the effect of participation in federal food assistance programs on the purchase of high nutrient-dense foods, and 4 examine whether usual psychological stress level moderates the effect of subjective social status on the purchase of high-nutrient dense foods. The results of this study will provide information about the drivers of food demand among low-income adults. A better understanding of these drivers is needed to develop effective nutrition interventions for this large population. Keywords: Price elasticity, Food assistance, Egg, Obesity, Social status, Stress

  5. Estimation of Single-Crystal Elastic Constants of Polycrystalline Materials from Back-Scattered Grain Noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldipur, P.; Margetan, F. J.; Thompson, R. B.

    2006-01-01

    Single-crystal elastic stiffness constants are important input parameters for many calculations in material science. There are well established methods to measure these constants using single-crystal specimens, but such specimens are not always readily available. The ultrasonic properties of metal polycrystals, such as velocity, attenuation, and backscattered grain noise characteristics, depend in part on the single-crystal elastic constants. In this work we consider the estimation of elastic constants from UT measurements and grain-sizing data. We confine ourselves to a class of particularly simple polycrystalline microstructures, found in some jet-engine Nickel alloys, which are single-phase, cubic, equiaxed, and untextured. In past work we described a method to estimate the single-crystal elastic constants from measured ultrasonic velocity and attenuation data accompanied by metallographic analysis of grain size. However, that methodology assumes that all attenuation is due to grain scattering, and thus is not valid if appreciable absorption is present. In this work we describe an alternative approach which uses backscattered grain noise data in place of attenuation data. Efforts to validate the method using a pure copper specimen are discussed, and new results for two jet-engine Nickel alloys are presented

  6. The Welfare Effects of Price Advertising with Basket Shopping: Structural Estimates from Supermarket Promotions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically examines welfare effects of the informative price advertising in the supermarket retail industry, using structural estimation approaches and individual scanner data. Supermarket retailers use promotions (advertised price cuts) to announce sales as a competing instrument...... promotion intensities are socially excessive. Moreover, the welfare implications are determined by the two opposite effects of price advertising: (1) the informing and therefore welfare-improving effect, and (2) the welfare-harming effect that higher transportation costs incur when promotions are used....... Using a spatial model that accounts for consumer shopping behavior and retailer pricing behavior, I structurally estimate consumer demand and the marginal costs of promotion, following the discrete choice literature and moment inequality approach. The simulation results numerically show that the private...

  7. A Generalized Schwartz Model for Energy Spot Prices - Estimation using a Particle MCMC Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor; Wei, Wei

    structure. Instead of using various filtering techniques for splitting the two factors, as often found in the literature, we estimate the model in one step using an adaptive MCMC method with a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter. We fit the model to UK natural gas spot prices and investigate the importance......We propose an energy spot price model featuring a two-factor price process and a two-component stochastic volatility process. The first factor in the price process captures the normal variations; the second accounts for spikes. The two-component volatility allows for a flexible autocorrelation...... of spikes and stochastic volatility. We find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial and that it strongly impacts the jump intensity in the spike process. Furthermore, our estimation method enables us to consider both continuous and purely jump-driven volatility processes, and thereby assess...

  8. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)

  9. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification

  10. Estimating the Break-Even Price for Forest Protection in Central Kalimantan

    OpenAIRE

    Yamamoto, Yuki; Takeuchi, Kenji

    2011-01-01

    This paper estimates the break-even price in Central Kalimantan province, Indonesia and evaluates the effectiveness of a REDD+ mechanism in this area. On the basis of data collected through a field survey, we found that the break-even price is $17.14 per ton of carbon or $4.68 per ton of carbon dioxide. The figure can be even lower when we take the peat thickness of the area into account. Our analysis shows that the current level of carbon price can provide adequate compensation for Indonesia...

  11. Estimation of parameters of constant elasticity of substitution production functional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi

    2017-11-01

    Nonlinear model building has become an increasing important powerful tool in mathematical economics. In recent years the popularity of applications of nonlinear models has dramatically been rising up. Several researchers in econometrics are very often interested in the inferential aspects of nonlinear regression models [6]. The present research study gives a distinct method of estimation of more complicated and highly nonlinear model viz Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functional model. Henningen et.al [5] proposed three solutions to avoid serious problems when estimating CES functions in 2012 and they are i) removing discontinuities by using the limits of the CES function and its derivative. ii) Circumventing large rounding errors by local linear approximations iii) Handling ill-behaved objective functions by a multi-dimensional grid search. Joel Chongeh et.al [7] discussed the estimation of the impact of capital and labour inputs to the gris output agri-food products using constant elasticity of substitution production function in Tanzanian context. Pol Antras [8] presented new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998.

  12. Estimate of elastic pole contributions to K+→π+γγ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeg, J.O.

    The elastic part of the amplitude for K + →π + γγ is considered and related to the finite self energy for K + and π + by means of Ward identities. The partial rate GAMMA(K + →π + γγ/GAMMA(K + →all) is estimated to be of the order 10 -6 to 10 -9 and cannot necessarily be neglected compared to other contributions. (Auth.)

  13. Measurement of Conjectural Variations Elasticity in an Oligopoly Structure (Using Iwata Approach for Iranians Food and Beverage Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nabishahyakitash

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate Conjectural Variations elasticity in Iranians Food and Beverage industry using Iwata approach, The conjectural variation function is extracted from demand and supply information also optimization process on producers’ behavior. The experimental estimates of conjectural variation elasticities were obtained based on price elasticity of demand, cost elasticity and marginal cost elasticity for the selected industries. In this research demand function AIDS was used to obtain the price elasticity. The AIDS function was estimated using SUR and the demand price elasticity is calculated by calfent. The results show that "Vegetable oils and animal" industry with 19.37 have the most conjectural variation elasticity among the selected industries (The more divergent the conjectural variation elasticity is from zero the more likely the monopoly exists. In addition, dairy, sugar and malt industries have the most conjectural variation elasticity with 18.01, 17.18, and 10.51 respectively.

  14. New Estimates of Labour Supply Elasticities for Married Women in Canada 1996–2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dostie, Benoit; Kromann, Lene

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income...... that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses' wages.......In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income...... in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show...

  15. Unit Price and Cost Estimation Equations through Items Percentage of Construction Works in a Desert Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadhim Raheem

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This research will cover different aspects of estimating process of construction work in a desert area. The inherent difficulties which accompany the cost estimating of the construction works in desert environment in a developing country, will stem from the limited information available, resources scarcity, low level of skilled workers, the prevailing severe weather conditions and many others, which definitely don't provide a fair, reliable and accurate estimation. This study tries to present unit price to estimate the cost in preliminary phase of a project. Estimations are supported by developing mathematical equations based on the historical data of maintenance, new construction of managerial and school projects. Meanwhile, the research has determined the percentage of project items, in such a remote environment. Estimation equations suitable for remote areas have been formulated. Moreover, a procedure for unite price calculation is concluded.

  16. Dynamic Estimation on Output Elasticity of Highway Capital Stock in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W. J.; Zuo, Q. L.; Bai, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    By using the Perpetual Inventory Method to calculate the capital stock of highway in China from 1988 to 2016, the paper builds the State Space Model based on Translog Production Function, according to the Ridge Regression and Kalman Filter Method, the dynamic estimation results of output elasticity are measured continuously and analyzed. The conclusions show that: Firstly, China’s growth speed on highway industry capital stock are divided into three stages which are respectively from 1988 to 2000, from 2001 to 2009 and from 2010 to 2016, during which shows steady growth, between which reflect rapid growth; Secondly, the output elasticity of highway capital stock, being between 0.154 and 0.248, is slightly larger than the output elasticity of human input factor, lower than the output elasticity of the technical level, shows positive effect on transport economy and rises steadily, but the output efficiency is low on the whole; Thirdly, around the year of 2010, the scale pay on highway industry begins to highlight the characteristic of increase.

  17. Assessing a disaggregated energy input: using confidence intervals around translog elasticity estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hisnanick, J.J.; Kyer, B.L.

    1995-01-01

    The role of energy in the production of manufacturing output has been debated extensively in the literature, particularly its relationship with capital and labor. In an attempt to provide some clarification in this debate, a two-step methodology was used. First under the assumption of a five-factor production function specification, we distinguished between electric and non-electric energy and assessed each component's relationship with capital and labor. Second, we calculated both the Allen and price elasticities and constructed 95% confidence intervals around these values. Our approach led to the following conclusions: that the disaggregation of the energy input into electric and non-electric energy is justified; that capital and electric energy and capital and non-electric energy are substitutes, while labor and electric energy and labor and non-electric energy are complements in production; and that capital and energy are substitutes, while labor and energy are complements. (author)

  18. Incentive Elasticity of Demand for Bike/Walk Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-29

    The primary objective of this research is to estimate the "incentive" (price) elasticity of demand for using non-motorized transportation (specifically walking and bicycling) to work. Results can be used directly in the formation of local policies to...

  19. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  20. The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues*

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, Byron F.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This elasticity does not necessarily equal one as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately influence tax revenues. ...

  1. Why Changes in Price Matter When Thinking About Marijuana Policy: A Review of the Literature on the Elasticity of Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacula, Rosalie Liccardo; Lundberg, Russell

    Recent debates regarding liberalization of marijuana policies often rest on assumptions regarding the extent to which such policy changes would lead to a change in marijuana consumption and by whom. This paper reviews the economics literature assessing the responsiveness of consumption to changes in price and enforcement risk and explicitly considers how this responsiveness varies by different user groups. In doing so, it demonstrates how most of the research has examined responsiveness to prevalence of use, which is a composite of different user groups, rather than level of consumption among regular or heavy users, which represent the largest share of total quantities consumed. Thus, it is not possible to generate reliable estimates of the impact of liberalizing policies on either tax revenues or harms, as these outcomes are most directly influenced by the amounts consumed by regular or heavy users, not prevalence rates.

  2. Investor response to consumer elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grenaa Jensen, Stine; Meibom, Peter; Ravn, H.F.; Straarup, Sarah

    2004-01-01

    In the Nordic electricity system there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the long-term development in production capacity. The process towards liberalisation of the electricity sector started in a situation with a large reserve margin, but this margin is gradually vanishing. Since the potential investors in new production capacity are unaccustomed with investments under the new regime it is unknown if and when investments will take place. The electricity price is the key market signal to potential investors. The price is settled as a balance between supply and demand, and it is generally assumed that the demand side has an important role in this, and increasingly so. However, since consumers have not earlier had the incentive to respond to electricity prices, no reliable estimate of demand elasticity is known. The purpose of the present study is to analyse the role of electricity demand elasticity for investments in new electricity production capacity. Electricity price scenarios generated with a partial equilibrium model (Balmorel) are combined with a model of investment decisions. In this, various scenarios concerning the development in the demand elasticity are used. The simulated investment decisions are taken in a stochastic, dynamic setting, where a key point is the timing of the investment decision in relation to the gathering of new information relative to the stochastic elements. Based on this, the consequences of the development in consumer price elasticity for investments in a base load and a peak load plant are investigated. The main result of the analysis is that peak load investments can be made unprofitable by the development in consumer price elasticity, such that an investor will tend to wait with his peak load investment, until the development in consumer price elasticity has been revealed. (au)

  3. FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Arino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

  4. Noninvasive Vascular Displacement Estimation for Relative Elastic Modulus Reconstruction in Transversal Imaging Planes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris L. de Korte

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Atherosclerotic plaque rupture can initiate stroke or myocardial infarction. Lipid-rich plaques with thin fibrous caps have a higher risk to rupture than fibrotic plaques. Elastic moduli differ for lipid-rich and fibrous tissue and can be reconstructed using tissue displacements estimated from intravascular ultrasound radiofrequency (RF data acquisitions. This study investigated if modulus reconstruction is possible for noninvasive RF acquisitions of vessels in transverse imaging planes using an iterative 2D cross-correlation based displacement estimation algorithm. Furthermore, since it is known that displacements can be improved by compounding of displacements estimated at various beam steering angles, we compared the performance of the modulus reconstruction with and without compounding. For the comparison, simulated and experimental RF data were generated of various vessel-mimicking phantoms. Reconstruction errors were less than 10%, which seems adequate for distinguishing lipid-rich from fibrous tissue. Compounding outperformed single-angle reconstruction: the interquartile range of the reconstructed moduli for the various homogeneous phantom layers was approximately two times smaller. Additionally, the estimated lateral displacements were a factor of 2–3 better matched to the displacements corresponding to the reconstructed modulus distribution. Thus, noninvasive elastic modulus reconstruction is possible for transverse vessel cross sections using this cross-correlation method and is more accurate with compounding.

  5. Estimating consumer willingness to pay a price premium for Alaska secondary wood products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; David L. Nicholls

    2003-01-01

    Dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey techniques were used to estimate mean willingness to pay (WTP) a price premium for made-in-Alaska secondary wood products. Respondents were asked to compare two superficially identical end tables, one made in China and one made in Alaska. The surveys were administered at home shows in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Sitka in...

  6. Using Hedonic price model to estimate effects of flood on real ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Distances were measured in metres from the centroid of the building to the edge of the river and roads using Global Positioning System. The result of the estimation shows that property located within the floodplain are lowers in value by an average of N 493, 408 which represents 6.8 percent reduction in sales price for an ...

  7. Pricing stock options under stochastic volatility and interest rates with efficient method of moments estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, George J.; Sluis, Pieter J. van der

    1999-01-01

    While the stochastic volatility (SV) generalization has been shown to improve the explanatory power over the Black-Scholes model, empirical implications of SV models on option pricing have not yet been adequately tested. The purpose of this paper is to first estimate a multivariate SV model using

  8. Elastic thickness estimates at northeast passive margin of North America and its implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R. T. Ratheesh; Maji, Tanmay K.; Kandpal, Suresh Ch; Sengupta, D.; Nair, Rajesh R.

    2011-06-01

    Global estimates of the elastic thickness (Te) of the structure of passive continental margins show wide and varying results owing to the use of different methodologies. Earlier estimates of the elastic thickness of the North Atlantic passive continental margins that used flexural modelling yielded a Te value of ~20-100 km. Here, we compare these estimates with the Te value obtained using orthonormalized Hermite multitaper recovered isostatic coherence functions. We discuss how Te is correlated with heat flow distribution and depth of necking. The E-W segment in the southern study region comprising Nova Scotia and the Southern Grand Banks show low Te values, while the zones comprising the NE-SW zones, viz., Western Greenland, Labrador, Orphan Basin and the Northern Grand Bank show comparatively high Te values. As expected, Te broadly reflects the depth of the 200-400°C isotherm below the weak surface sediment layer at the time of loading, and at the margins most of the loading occurred during rifting. We infer that these low Te measurements indicate Te frozen into the lithosphere. This could be due to the passive nature of the margin when the loads were emplaced during the continental break-up process at high temperature gradients.

  9. US energy product supply elasticities. A survey and application to the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahl, Carol; Duggan, Thomas E.

    1996-01-01

    We survey studies of simple energy supply models to find the most promising technique for developing supply elasticities in the U.S. crude oil market. The two dozen studies located include direct estimates of energy supply elasticities or cost studies from which supply or reserve elasticities can be inferred. We include all available studies for all forms of energy both primary and secondary. We find direct estimates of oil supply to obtain weak results unless depletion and price expectations are included. Oil product supply elasticities vary widely across studies but appear to be elastic. Studies that estimate reserve price elasticities by computing reserve costs appear to be the most promising for estimating reserve elasticities for fossil fuel supply. Hence we apply this technique to US oil reserves and find a reserve elasticity of 1.27

  10. Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Tomczyk, Jakub; Weron, Rafał

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of an extensive study on estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of over 300 models, including monthly dummies and models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that the considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than the commonly used monthly dummies and sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on the latter two types of LTSC models. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the forecasting of the long-term seasonal components • Over 300 models examined, including commonly used and new approaches • Wavelet-based models outperform sine-based and monthly dummy models. • Validity of stochastic models built on sines or monthly dummies is questionable

  11. Estimating Multivariate Exponentail-Affine Term Structure Models from Coupon Bound Prices using Nonlinear Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    An econometric analysis of continuous-timemodels of the term structure of interest rates is presented. A panel of coupon bond prices with different maturities is used to estimate the embedded parameters of a continuous-discrete state space model of unobserved state variables: the spot interest rate...... noise term should account for model errors. A nonlinear filtering method is used to compute estimates of the state variables, and the model parameters are estimated by a quasimaximum likelihood method provided that some assumptions are imposed on the model residuals. Both Monte Carlo simulation results...

  12. HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

  13. On the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity demand in the manufacturing industry of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Barrientos

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se presenta una estimación de la reacción de la demanda a niveles de precios de contratos forward de electricidad en la industria manufacturera de Colombia. Se desarrolló un modelo de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR considerando varias actividades económicas a diferentes niveles de tensión. Los sectores industriales bajo estudio no mostraron una demanda de electricidad significativamente sensible a variaciones de precios. Sin embargo, los sectores de alimentos y bebidas, caucho y plástico, así como el sector comercial minorista resultaron ser más sensibles a choques de precios que la industria química o el sector de manufactura de textiles. Dicha inelasticidad podría suavizarse si la información concerniente a precios y cantidades demandadas fuera de conocimiento común, o si la curva forward pudiera ser observable.

  14. The implications of selective attrition for estimates of intergenerational elasticity of family income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeni, Robert F; Wiemers, Emily E

    2015-09-01

    Numerous studies have estimated a high intergenerational correlation in economic status. Such studies do not typically attend to potential biases that may arise due to survey attrition. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics - the data source most commonly used in prior studies - we demonstrate that attrition is particularly high for low-income adult children with low-income parents and particularly low for high-income adult children with high-income parents. Because of this pattern of attrition, intergenerational upward mobility has been overstated for low-income families and downward mobility has been understated for high-income families. The bias among low-income families is greater than the bias among high-income families implying that intergenerational elasticity in family income is higher than previous estimates with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics would suggest.

  15. A rational approach to estimating the surgical demand elasticity needed to guide manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Hsiao-Mei; Sun, Ying-Chou; Liou, Der-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases continue to pose serious threats to global public health. So far, however, few published study has addressed the need for manpower reallocation needed in hospitals when such a serious contagious outbreak occurs. To quantify the demand elasticity of the major surgery types in order to guide future manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks. Based on a nationwide research database in Taiwan, we extracted the monthly volumes of major surgery types for the period 1998-2003, which covered the SARS period, in order to carry out a time series analysis. The demand elasticity of each surgery type was then estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis. During the study period, the surgical volumes of most selected surgery types either increased or remained steady. We categorized these surgery types into low-, moderate- and high-elastic groups according to their demand elasticity. Appendectomy, 'open reduction of fracture with internal fixation' and 'free skin graft' were in the low demand elasticity group. Transurethral prostatectomy and extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) were in the high demand elasticity group. The manpower of the departments carrying out the surgeries with low demand elasticity should be maintained during outbreaks. In contrast, departments in charge of surgeries mainly with high demand elasticity, like urology departments, may be in a position to have part of their staff reallocated. Taking advantage of the demand variation during the SARS period in 2003, we adopted the concept of demand elasticity and used a time series approach to figure out an effective index of demand elasticity for various types of surgery that could be used as a rational reference to carry out manpower reallocation during contagious outbreak situations.

  16. Estimating local, organic, and other price premiums of shell eggs in Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

    2016-05-01

    Hedonic modeling and retail scanner data were utilized to investigate the influence of local, organic, nutrition benefits, and other attributes of shell eggs on retail price premium in Hawaii. Within a revealed preference framework, the analysis of local and organic attributes, simultaneously, under a single unified setting is important, as such work is highly deficient in the published literature. This paper finds high to moderate price premiums in four key attributes of shell eggs - organic (64%), local (40%), nutrition benefits claimed (33%), and brown shell (18.4%). Large and extra-large sized eggs also experience price premiums over medium sized eggs. With each larger packing size, the estimated coefficients were negative, indicating a price discount, relative to the baseline packing size. However, there is no evidence to support the overwhelming influence of "local" over "organic", as hypothesized in other research work. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest industry producers and retailers should highlight and market effusively the primary attributes of their shell eggs, including "local", to remain competitive in the marketplace. Effective communication channels are crucial to delivering the product information, capturing the attention of consumers, and securing retail sales. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  17. A method for estimation of elasticities in metabolic networks using steady state and dynamic metabolomics data and linlog kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Gulik Walter M

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dynamic modeling of metabolic reaction networks under in vivo conditions is a crucial step in order to obtain a better understanding of the (disfunctioning of living cells. So far dynamic metabolic models generally have been based on mechanistic rate equations which often contain so many parameters that their identifiability from experimental data forms a serious problem. Recently, approximative rate equations, based on the linear logarithmic (linlog format have been proposed as a suitable alternative with fewer parameters. Results In this paper we present a method for estimation of the kinetic model parameters, which are equal to the elasticities defined in Metabolic Control Analysis, from metabolite data obtained from dynamic as well as steady state perturbations, using the linlog kinetic format. Additionally, we address the question of parameter identifiability from dynamic perturbation data in the presence of noise. The method is illustrated using metabolite data generated with a dynamic model of the glycolytic pathway of Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on mechanistic rate equations. Elasticities are estimated from the generated data, which define the complete linlog kinetic model of the glycolysis. The effect of data noise on the accuracy of the estimated elasticities is presented. Finally, identifiable subset of parameters is determined using information on the standard deviations of the estimated elasticities through Monte Carlo (MC simulations. Conclusion The parameter estimation within the linlog kinetic framework as presented here allows the determination of the elasticities directly from experimental data from typical dynamic and/or steady state experiments. These elasticities allow the reconstruction of the full kinetic model of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the determination of the control coefficients. MC simulations revealed that certain elasticities are potentially unidentifiable from dynamic data only

  18. The role of efficiency estimates in regulatory price reviews: Ofgem's approach to benchmarking electricity networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Electricity regulators around the world make use of efficiency analysis (or benchmarking) to produce estimates of the likely amount of cost reduction which regulated electric utilities can achieve. This short paper examines the use of such efficiency estimates by the UK electricity regulator (Ofgem) within electricity distribution and transmission price reviews. It highlights the place of efficiency analysis within the calculation of X factors. We suggest a number of problems with the current approach and make suggestions for the future development of X factor setting. (author)

  19. Regarding fuel prices and automobility. A brief analysis of price and cost elasticities; Over brandstofprijzen en automobiliteit. Een beknopte analyse van prijs- en kostenelasticiteit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groot, W.

    2012-01-15

    Car drivers do not drive significantly less when fuel prices at the pump rise. If fuel prices increase by approximately 12.5 percent, the long-term decrease in car kilometres travelled is just 2.5 percent. Higher fuel prices have also not resulted in a more fuel-efficient 'car fleet' (i.e. the range of available car model types). The fuel consumption rate per kilometre remained relatively constant from the late 1980s to 2009, although recent years have seen a marked improvement in the per kilometre fuel consumption rate, as measured in CO2 emissions of new passenger cars. These were the findings of the title study, conducted by the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. This study was based on data covering the period 1980 to 2009. The majority of the definitive effects of higher fuel prices revealed in this study were less pronounced than the effects previously cited in available literature, especially with regard to the long-term effects [Dutch] Uit de titel studie blijkt dat automobilisten in beperkte mate minder gaan rijden als de brandstofprijzen aan de pomp stijgen. Een stijging van de benzineprijs met ongeveer 12,5 procent leidt op langere termijn tot een vermindering van de hoeveelheid afgelegde kilometers met 2,5 procent. De hoge brandstofprijzen hebben ook niet geleid tot een zuiniger wagenpark. Het benzineverbruik per kilometer is tussen het eind van de jaren tachtig en 2009 vrijwel gelijk gebleven. Met als kanttekening dat in de meest recente jaren sprake is van een zichtbare verbetering van het verbruik per kilometer, afgemeten aan de CO2-uitstoot van nieuwe personenauto's. Het KiM heeft zich in de studie gebaseerd op cijfers over de periode 1980-2009. De meeste in het onderzoek vastgestelde effecten van hogere benzineprijzen zijn kleiner dan de effecten die in de beschikbare literatuur zijn aangetroffen. Dit geldt vooral voor de effecten op de lange termijn.

  20. Regarding fuel prices and automobility. A brief analysis of price and cost elasticities; Over brandstofprijzen en automobiliteit. Een beknopte analyse van prijs- en kostenelasticiteit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groot, W.

    2012-01-15

    Car drivers do not drive significantly less when fuel prices at the pump rise. If fuel prices increase by approximately 12.5 percent, the long-term decrease in car kilometres travelled is just 2.5 percent. Higher fuel prices have also not resulted in a more fuel-efficient 'car fleet' (i.e. the range of available car model types). The fuel consumption rate per kilometre remained relatively constant from the late 1980s to 2009, although recent years have seen a marked improvement in the per kilometre fuel consumption rate, as measured in CO2 emissions of new passenger cars. These were the findings of the title study, conducted by the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. This study was based on data covering the period 1980 to 2009. The majority of the definitive effects of higher fuel prices revealed in this study were less pronounced than the effects previously cited in available literature, especially with regard to the long-term effects [Dutch] Uit de titel studie blijkt dat automobilisten in beperkte mate minder gaan rijden als de brandstofprijzen aan de pomp stijgen. Een stijging van de benzineprijs met ongeveer 12,5 procent leidt op langere termijn tot een vermindering van de hoeveelheid afgelegde kilometers met 2,5 procent. De hoge brandstofprijzen hebben ook niet geleid tot een zuiniger wagenpark. Het benzineverbruik per kilometer is tussen het eind van de jaren tachtig en 2009 vrijwel gelijk gebleven. Met als kanttekening dat in de meest recente jaren sprake is van een zichtbare verbetering van het verbruik per kilometer, afgemeten aan de CO2-uitstoot van nieuwe personenauto's. Het KiM heeft zich in de studie gebaseerd op cijfers over de periode 1980-2009. De meeste in het onderzoek vastgestelde effecten van hogere benzineprijzen zijn kleiner dan de effecten die in de beschikbare literatuur zijn aangetroffen. Dit geldt vooral voor de effecten op de lange termijn.

  1. Systematic feasibility analysis of a quantitative elasticity estimation for breast anatomy using supine/prone patient postures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasse, Katelyn; Neylon, John; Sheng, Ke; Santhanam, Anand P

    2016-03-01

    Breast elastography is a critical tool for improving the targeted radiotherapy treatment of breast tumors. Current breast radiotherapy imaging protocols only involve prone and supine CT scans. There is a lack of knowledge on the quantitative accuracy with which breast elasticity can be systematically measured using only prone and supine CT datasets. The purpose of this paper is to describe a quantitative elasticity estimation technique for breast anatomy using only these supine/prone patient postures. Using biomechanical, high-resolution breast geometry obtained from CT scans, a systematic assessment was performed in order to determine the feasibility of this methodology for clinically relevant elasticity distributions. A model-guided inverse analysis approach is presented in this paper. A graphics processing unit (GPU)-based linear elastic biomechanical model was employed as a forward model for the inverse analysis with the breast geometry in a prone position. The elasticity estimation was performed using a gradient-based iterative optimization scheme and a fast-simulated annealing (FSA) algorithm. Numerical studies were conducted to systematically analyze the feasibility of elasticity estimation. For simulating gravity-induced breast deformation, the breast geometry was anchored at its base, resembling the chest-wall/breast tissue interface. Ground-truth elasticity distributions were assigned to the model, representing tumor presence within breast tissue. Model geometry resolution was varied to estimate its influence on convergence of the system. A priori information was approximated and utilized to record the effect on time and accuracy of convergence. The role of the FSA process was also recorded. A novel error metric that combined elasticity and displacement error was used to quantify the systematic feasibility study. For the authors' purposes, convergence was set to be obtained when each voxel of tissue was within 1 mm of ground-truth deformation. The authors

  2. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon [Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

  3. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon; Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation

  4. The economic cost of fuel price subsidies in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofori, Roland Oduro

    I adapt the Harberger formula for deadweight loss to develop approximations for the deadweight loss created by multiple fuel price subsidies. I also estimate the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel in Africa. I use data on fuel prices and sales in combination with my formulas and elasticity estimates to calculate the deadweight loss of fuel price subsidies in Ghana from 2009 to 2014. I show that the average efficiency cost of the gasoline and diesel price subsidies in Ghana is 0.8% of fuel price subsidy transfers. This result stresses the futility of basing subsidy reforms on economic efficiency losses, which are relatively small due to very inelastic energy demand, and the need for such reforms to be motivated by the poor-targeting of subsidies to low-income households and the impact of subsidies on government debt-financing.

  5. Weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste. The Oostzaan case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderhof, Vincent; Kooreman, Peter; Allers, Maarten; Wiersma, Doede

    2001-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste. Using a comprehensive panel data set on all households in a Dutch municipality we estimate short-run as well as long-run price effects for the amounts of both compostable and non-recyclable household waste. We find significant and sizeable price effects, with the elasticity for compostable waste being four times as large as the elasticity for non-recyclable waste. Long-run elasticities are about 30% larger than short-run elasticities

  6. Symmetry in farm-retail price transmission: pork in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    This study intends to determine the farm-retail price transmission behaviors of pork in Malaysia to serve as a good implication for pork pricing system in Malaysia. Using data from January 1997 to December 2008, both the Houck and ECM approaches were found symmetric where a change in farm price of pork was observed to have similar change in retail price of pork in Malaysia. The price setting system of pork can therefore be further described by the estimated price transmission elasticities whe...

  7. Validation of an elastic registration technique to estimate anatomical lung modification in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Tomotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faggiano, Elena; Cattaneo, Giovanni M; Ciavarro, Cristina; Dell'Oca, Italo; Persano, Diego; Calandrino, Riccardo; Rizzo, Giovanna

    2011-01-01

    The study of lung parenchyma anatomical modification is useful to estimate dose discrepancies during the radiation treatment of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients. We propose and validate a method, based on free-form deformation and mutual information, to elastically register planning kVCT with daily MVCT images, to estimate lung parenchyma modification during Tomotherapy. We analyzed 15 registrations between the planning kVCT and 3 MVCT images for each of the 5 NSCLC patients. Image registration accuracy was evaluated by visual inspection and, quantitatively, by Correlation Coefficients (CC) and Target Registration Errors (TRE). Finally, a lung volume correspondence analysis was performed to specifically evaluate registration accuracy in lungs. Results showed that elastic registration was always satisfactory, both qualitatively and quantitatively: TRE after elastic registration (average value of 3.6 mm) remained comparable and often smaller than voxel resolution. Lung volume variations were well estimated by elastic registration (average volume and centroid errors of 1.78% and 0.87 mm, respectively). Our results demonstrate that this method is able to estimate lung deformations in thorax MVCT, with an accuracy within 3.6 mm comparable or smaller than the voxel dimension of the kVCT and MVCT images. It could be used to estimate lung parenchyma dose variations in thoracic Tomotherapy

  8. Limits to growth in organic sales : price elasticity of consumer demand for organic food in Dutch supermarkets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunte, F.H.J.; Galen, van M.A.; Kuiper, W.E.; Bakker, J.H.

    2007-01-01

    This report determines how sensitive consumer demand for organic products is to changes in the prices of organic products. The report is based on the analysis of scanner data for supermarkets in ten Dutch communities. In the framework of the analysis, an experiment has been performed in which the

  9. State of the art in the estimation of energy prices in the spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botero B, Sergio; Cano C, Jovan A

    2007-01-01

    Since the start energy markets deregulation in the world, several spot market (short term) price prediction methods have been developed? this article identifies and compares the main methods of prediction used in Colombia and other international markets. With this review it is possible to determine the state of the knowledge in the specific subject and then to look for the development of new forecasting techniques that can contribute to the solution of this problem. The prediction horizon is something that must be taken into account in the review of the several techniques, given that both the magnitude of the final model of estimation, and the time series treatment type, depend on this horizon.

  10. APPLYING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK OPTIMIZED BY FIREWORKS ALGORITHM FOR STOCK PRICE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuat Thanh Tung

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Stock prediction is to determine the future value of a company stock dealt on an exchange. It plays a crucial role to raise the profit gained by firms and investors. Over the past few years, many methods have been developed in which plenty of efforts focus on the machine learning framework achieving the promising results. In this paper, an approach based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN optimized by Fireworks algorithm and data preprocessing by Haar Wavelet is applied to estimate the stock prices. The system was trained and tested with real data of various companies collected from Yahoo Finance. The obtained results are encouraging.

  11. Elasticities for U.S. Wheat Food Use by Class

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, Thomas L.

    2003-01-01

    We conceptualize wheat for food use as an input into flour production and derive demand functions to quantify price responsiveness and economic substitutability across wheat classes. Cost, price, and substitution elasticities are estimated for hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red wheat, soft white winter, and durum wheat. In general, hard red winter and spring wheat varieties are much more responsive to their own price than are soft wheat varieties and durum wheat. Morishima elasticitie...

  12. Implementation of Equilibrium-Price Model to the Estimation of Import Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadulla Hasanli

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the the import inflationary processes as a result of feedbacks of mutual economic relations of World countries. It is used Equilibrium Price Model to estimate the import inflationary processes in CIS countries. The study investigates the further results regarding the import inflationary processes in the CIS countries on the scenario of increasing the Value Added norm in Russia. As well as by standpoint of economic growth and price stability, the recent revaluation of US dollar in the World and its impacts to total output of other countries have been investigated in details. In other words due to revaluation of the US dollar, if the final product decreases in USA, this decreasing impact how to be transmitted to the world countries have been estimated by the Input-Output Table in this study as well. The work is fulfilled on the Input-Output data for the year 2011. This study assumes theoretical and practical importance in defining the monetary policy.

  13. Estimating the system price of redox flow batteries for grid storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, Seungbum; Gallagher, Kevin G.

    2015-11-01

    Low-cost energy storage systems are required to support extensive deployment of intermittent renewable energy on the electricity grid. Redox flow batteries have potential advantages to meet the stringent cost target for grid applications as compared to more traditional batteries based on an enclosed architecture. However, the manufacturing process and therefore potential high-volume production price of redox flow batteries is largely unquantified. We present a comprehensive assessment of a prospective production process for aqueous all vanadium flow battery and nonaqueous lithium polysulfide flow battery. The estimated investment and variable costs are translated to fixed expenses, profit, and warranty as a function of production volume. When compared to lithium-ion batteries, redox flow batteries are estimated to exhibit lower costs of manufacture, here calculated as the unit price less materials costs, owing to their simpler reactor (cell) design, lower required area, and thus simpler manufacturing process. Redox flow batteries are also projected to achieve the majority of manufacturing scale benefits at lower production volumes as compared to lithium-ion. However, this advantage is offset due to the dramatically lower present production volume of flow batteries compared to competitive technologies such as lithium-ion.

  14. Second Thoughts on the European Escape from Hunger: Famines, Price Elasticities, Entitlements, Chronic Malnutrition, and Mortality Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Robert W. Fogel

    1989-01-01

    The six principal findings of this paper are as follows: (1) crisis mortality accounted for less than 5 percent of total mortality in England prior to 1800 and the elimination of crisis mortality accounted for just 15 percent of the decline in total mortality between the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. (2) The use of variations in wheat prices to measure variations in the food supply has led to gross overestimates of the variability of the food supply. (3) The famines that plagued Englan...

  15. Cost and price estimate of Brayton and Stirling engines in selected production volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortgang, H. R.; Mayers, H. F.

    1980-01-01

    The methods used to determine the production costs and required selling price of Brayton and Stirling engines modified for use in solar power conversion units are presented. Each engine part, component and assembly was examined and evaluated to determine the costs of its material and the method of manufacture based on specific annual production volumes. Cost estimates are presented for both the Stirling and Brayton engines in annual production volumes of 1,000, 25,000, 100,000 and 400,000. At annual production volumes above 50,000 units, the costs of both engines are similar, although the Stirling engine costs are somewhat lower. It is concluded that modifications to both the Brayton and Stirling engine designs could reduce the estimated costs.

  16. Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

    2017-03-01

    The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for

  17. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia); Ting, Chee-Ming [Center for Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

  18. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Bahar, Arifah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Ting, Chee-Ming; Rahman, Haliza Abd

    2015-02-01

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.

  19. Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Kho Chia; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal; Rahman, Haliza Abd; Bahar, Arifah; Ting, Chee-Ming

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well

  20. A pharmacoeconomic modeling approach to estimate a value-based price for new oncology drugs in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dranitsaris, George; Ortega, Ana; Lubbe, Martie S; Truter, Ilse

    2012-03-01

    Several European governments have recently mandated price cuts in drugs to reduce health care spending. However, such measures without supportive evidence may compromise patient care because manufacturers may withdraw current products or not launch new agents. A value-based pricing scheme may be a better approach for determining a fair drug price and may be a medium for negotiations between the key stakeholders. To demonstrate this approach, pharmacoeconomic (PE) modeling was used from the Spanish health care system perspective to estimate a value-based price for bevacizumab, a drug that provides a 1.4-month survival benefit to patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The threshold used for economic value was three times the Spanish per capita GDP, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). A PE model was developed to simulate outcomes in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy ± bevacizumab. Clinical data were obtained from randomized trials and costs from a Spanish hospital. Utility estimates were determined by interviewing 24 Spanish oncology nurses and pharmacists. A price per dose of bevacizumab was then estimated using a target threshold of € 78,300 per quality-adjusted life year gained, which is three times the Spanish per capita GDP. For a 1.4-month survival benefit, a price of € 342 per dose would be considered cost effective from the Spanish public health care perspective. The price may be increased to € 733 or € 843 per dose if the drug were able to improve patient quality of life or enhance survival from 1.4 to 3 months. This study demonstrated that a value-based pricing approach using PE modeling and the WHO criteria for economic value is feasible and perhaps a better alternative to government mandated price cuts. The former approach would be a good starting point for opening dialog between European government payers and the pharmaceutical industry.

  1. Testing the Limits of the Price Elasticity of Potential Students at Colleges and Universities: Has the Increased Direct Cost to the Student Begun to Drive down Higher Education Enrolment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fincher, Mark; Katsinas, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Higher education enrolment has long been known to rise and fall counter to the current economic situation. This counter-cyclical enrolment response represents an economic principle where a price-elastic consumer is more likely make a consumption choice when another valuable use of resources is not available. Higher unemployment has historically…

  2. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

  3. The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    standard practice is to deflate costs to constant dollars (the dependent variable in the analogous regression) using a previously determined price ...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S IDA Document D-5489 March 2016 The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in...DFARS 252.227-7013 (a)(16) [Jun 2013]. The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study

  4. Price estimation and economic evaluation of the production cost of red wines produced by immobilized cells on dried raisin berries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argiris Tsakiris

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Argiris Tsakiris1, Kiriaki Sotirakoglou2, Panagiotis Kandylis3, Panagiotis Kaldis1, Constantina Tzia4, Yiannis Kourkoutas31Department of Oenology and Beverage Technology, Faculty of Food Technology and Nutrition, Technological Educational Institute of Athens, Athens, Greece; 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Agricultural University of Athens, Athens, Greece; 3Applied Microbiology and Molecular Biotechnology Research Group, Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Democritus University of Thrace, Alexandroupolis, Greece; 4Laboratory of Food Chemistry and Technology, School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, GreeceAbstract: The aim of the study was initially to estimate the price of red wines produced by immobilized cells on dried raisin berries and subsequently to investigate whether the estimated price was sufficient to counterbalance the increased investment and operational costs required for industrial application of the novel biotechnological process. Price estimation of the experimental wines was based on the correlation of sensory quality, determined by a group of trained tasters, and the price of commercial wines available in a certain market. Application of principal component analysis (PCA provided improved results over simple and exponential regression analysis, as only a part of the relationship between the two variables was represented (68.4% and 75.3%, respectively. However, with PCA the total variance explained by the two components was 100%. Taste was more important than aroma in determining sensory quality, and wine price was mainly affected by sensory quality rather than wine age in the Greek market. The total increase of production cost was estimated to be €0.032/bottle, which is significantly lower than the increase of €2.08/bottle price estimated by PCA for the red wines produced by immobilized cells, due to the improved aromatic potential compared with wines produced by

  5. Estimating the Market Demand and Elasticity for Enrollment at an Institution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlgemuth, Darin

    2013-01-01

    This article presents an applied research framework that can be helpful in tuition and net price policy discussions. It is the classic microeconomic concept of market demand applied to enrollment management in higher education. The policy relevance includes measuring a response to price. For example, the results of this model will allow the…

  6. Análise da elasticidade de transmissão de preços no mercado brasileiro de algodão Analysis of price transmission elasticity in the Brazilian cotton market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa Zeferino Barbosa

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the elasticity of price transmission in the Brazilian cotton market from January, 1985, to December, 2000. For this purpose, the Dickey-Fuller Augmented (ADF unit root test, the Johansen cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction model (VEC, and the exogenicity test are applied. The results show that the One Price Law does not apply to the Brazilian cotton market, because variations in cotton international prices are not fully transmitted to domestic prices in Brazil in the long run. The exogenicity test shows that domestic cotton prices in Brazil do not react to changes in the long run equilibrium relationship. Possibly, these results are directly associated with government intervention in the sector (1985 to 1988 as well as to the credit conditions available for cotton acquisition in the international market between 1990 and 1997.

  7. Pricing of electricity in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amarullah, M.

    1983-01-01

    The objectives of this study are 1) to establish a sound theoretical basis for the determinants of electricity demand in Indonesia, 2) to measure the welfare losses of existing electricity pricing, and 3) to suggest a method of reducing these welfare losses. An econometric model for electricity demand is estimated using pooled time-series of fifteen regions in Indonesia covering the period 1970-1979. The short run price elasticities for both residential and industrial/business sectors are found to be inelastic, while the long run price elasticities for these sectors are found to be quite elastic with a value of -.61 for the residential sector and of -1.1 for the industrial/business sector. Income elasticity is .8 in the short run and around 1.00 for the long run. The exposure variable that captures the accessibility of electricity, has long run elasticity of 1.00 for the residential sector and less than 1.00 for the industrial/business sector. Due to distributional considerations, the 1980's electricity rate was set below its efficient level, and has created a welfare loss of Rp.8273.23 million per month. This accounts for 36.03% of the monthly electricity revenue. A rebate mechanism is recommended in this study, which provides a way to mitigate conflicting aspects of efficiency and equity

  8. The effects of the energy price reform on households consumption in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moshiri, Saeed

    2015-01-01

    The substantial subsidizing of energy prices over the years has led to high energy consumption, inefficiencies, fiscal pressures, and environmental problems in Iran. To address the increasing socio-economic problems associated with the energy subsidies, the government embarked on an aggressive energy price reform through which energy subsidies were removed and cash handouts were given to all households in 2010. In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of the energy price reform in Iran by estimating energy demand elasticities for households in different income groups. I apply a two-stage consumer optimization model and estimate the system of energy expenditures shares using the household budget survey data for the period 2001–2008. The results show that the overall price elasticities of demand are small, but income elasticities are close to one. The results also indicate heterogeneous responses to energy price and income changes in different income groups. Specifically, the urban households show stronger response to price changes, but rural households, particularly mid-income households, to income changes. These findings suggest that the current policy of price increases would not solely be able to reduce energy consumption and, therefore, it should be geared towards increasing energy efficiency through a series of price and non-price measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of the recent energy price reform in Iran is analyzed. • Energy demand elasticities for households in different income groups are estimated. • A two-stage optimization model was applied to estimate the system of equations using micro-data for 2001–2008. • The price elasticities are small and income elasticities rather large, but responses are heterogeneous. • A price and non-price reform policy package is needed for different income groups and regions

  9. Ultrasound estimation and FE analysis of elastic modulus of Kelvin foam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Nohyu; Yang, Seung Yong [School of Mechatronics Engineering, Korea University of Technology and Education, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    The elastic modulus of a 3D-printed Kelvin foam plate is investigated by measuring the acoustic wave velocity of 1 MHz ultrasound. An isotropic tetrakaidecahedron foam with 3 mm unit cell is designed and printed layer upon layer to fabricate a Kelvin foam plate of 14 mm thickness with a 3D CAD/printer using ABS plastic. The Kelvin foam plate is completely filled with paraffin wax for impedance matching, so that the acoustic wave may propagate through the porous foam plate. The acoustic wave velocity of the foam plate is measured using the time-of-flight (TOF) method and is used to calculate the elastic modulus of the Kelvin foam plate based on acousto-elasticity. Finite element method (FEM) and micromechanics is applied to the Kelvin foam plate to calculate the theoretical elastic modulus using a non-isotropic tetrakaidecahedron model. The predicted elastic modulus of the Kelvin foam plate from FEM and micromechanics model is similar, which is only 3-4% of the bulk material. The experimental value of the elastic modulus from the ultrasonic method is approximately twice as that of the numerical and theoretical methods because of the flexural deformation of the cell edges neglected in the ultrasonic method.

  10. Ultrasound estimation and FE analysis of elastic modulus of Kelvin foam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Nohyu; Yang, Seung Yong

    2016-01-01

    The elastic modulus of a 3D-printed Kelvin foam plate is investigated by measuring the acoustic wave velocity of 1 MHz ultrasound. An isotropic tetrakaidecahedron foam with 3 mm unit cell is designed and printed layer upon layer to fabricate a Kelvin foam plate of 14 mm thickness with a 3D CAD/printer using ABS plastic. The Kelvin foam plate is completely filled with paraffin wax for impedance matching, so that the acoustic wave may propagate through the porous foam plate. The acoustic wave velocity of the foam plate is measured using the time-of-flight (TOF) method and is used to calculate the elastic modulus of the Kelvin foam plate based on acousto-elasticity. Finite element method (FEM) and micromechanics is applied to the Kelvin foam plate to calculate the theoretical elastic modulus using a non-isotropic tetrakaidecahedron model. The predicted elastic modulus of the Kelvin foam plate from FEM and micromechanics model is similar, which is only 3-4% of the bulk material. The experimental value of the elastic modulus from the ultrasonic method is approximately twice as that of the numerical and theoretical methods because of the flexural deformation of the cell edges neglected in the ultrasonic method

  11. Regional electric power demand elasticities of Japan's industrial and commercial sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoe, Nobuhiro; Akiyama, Shu-ichi

    2009-01-01

    In the assessment and review of regulatory reforms in the electric power market, price elasticity is one of the most important parameters that characterize the market. However, price elasticity has seldom been estimated in Japan; instead, it has been assumed to be as small as 0.1 or 0 without proper examination of the empirical validity of such a priori assumptions. We estimated the regional power demand functions for nine regions, in order to quantify the elasticity, and found the short-run price elasticity to be 0.09-0.30 and the long-run price elasticity to be 0.12-0.56. Inter-regional comparison of our estimation results suggests that price elasticity in rural regions is larger than that in urban regions. Popular assumptions of small elasticity of 0.1, for example, could be suitable for examining Japan's aggregate power demand but not power demand functions that focus on respective regions. Furthermore, assumptions about smaller elasticity values such as 0.01 and 0 could not be supported statistically by this study.

  12. Regional electric power demand elasticities of Japan's industrial and commercial sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hosoe, Nobuhiro [National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato, Tokyo 106-8677 (Japan); Akiyama, Shu-ichi [Kushiro Public University of Economics, 4-1-1 Ashino, Kushiro, Hokkaido 085-8585 (Japan)

    2009-11-15

    In the assessment and review of regulatory reforms in the electric power market, price elasticity is one of the most important parameters that characterize the market. However, price elasticity has seldom been estimated in Japan; instead, it has been assumed to be as small as 0.1 or 0 without proper examination of the empirical validity of such a priori assumptions. We estimated the regional power demand functions for nine regions, in order to quantify the elasticity, and found the short-run price elasticity to be 0.09-0.30 and the long-run price elasticity to be 0.12-0.56. Inter-regional comparison of our estimation results suggests that price elasticity in rural regions is larger than that in urban regions. Popular assumptions of small elasticity of 0.1, for example, could be suitable for examining Japan's aggregate power demand but not power demand functions that focus on respective regions. Furthermore, assumptions about smaller elasticity values such as 0.01 and 0 could not be supported statistically by this study. (author)

  13. Estimation of Relative Economic Weights of Hanwoo Carcass Traits Based on Carcass Market Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Yun Ho; Park, Byoung Ho; Choi, Tae Jung; Choi, Jae Gwan; Cho, Kwang Hyun; Lee, Seung Soo; Choi, You Lim; Koh, Kyung Chul; Kim, Hyo Sun

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate economic weights of Hanwoo carcass traits that can be used to build economic selection indexes for selection of seedstocks. Data from carcass measures for determining beef yield and quality grades were collected and provided by the Korean Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation (KAPE). Out of 1,556,971 records, 476,430 records collected from 13 abattoirs from 2008 to 2010 after deletion of outlying observations were used to estimate relative economic weights of bid price per kg carcass weight on cold carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BF) and marbling score (MS) and the phenotypic relationships among component traits. Price of carcass tended to increase linearly as yield grades or quality grades, in marginal or in combination, increased. Partial regression coefficients for MS, EMA, BF, and for CW in original scales were +948.5 won/score, +27.3 won/cm2, −95.2 won/mm and +7.3 won/kg when all three sex categories were taken into account. Among four grade determining traits, relative economic weight of MS was the greatest. Variations in partial regression coefficients by sex categories were great but the trends in relative weights for each carcass measures were similar. Relative economic weights of four traits in integer values when standardized measures were fit into covariance model were +4:+1:−1:+1 for MS:EMA:BF:CW. Further research is required to account for the cost of production per unit carcass weight or per unit production under different economic situations. PMID:25049531

  14. Estimating temporary and permanent stock price innovations on Croatian capital market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the size and duration of temporary and permanent stock price innovations on Croatian capital market in the structural VAR (vector autoregression framework with Blanchard and Quah (1989 decomposition. The purpose is to identify the effects of temporary price innovations in order to determine to which extent future stock prices can be predicted. Temporary components present in stock prices are explained throughout the mean-reversion hypothesis. This means that stock prices deviate from the fundamental values, but they will revert to their mean. In that way, to some extent, it is possible to predict future price movements. The results show that for the observed period from January 2000 to September 2013, temporary innovations account for only 2.62% of price variability over a two-year horizon. This means that forecasting the future movements of stock prices on Zagreb Stock Exchange is a difficult task.

  15. Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, J.; Engsted, T.

    1993-01-01

    Short- and long-run energy demand elasticities are estimated on Danish annual data for 1948-90. Energy consumption, the real price of energy and real GDP appear to be non-stationary variables. Cointegration and error-correction methods are therefore applied. All estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973/74. (author)

  16. A numerical method to estimate the parameters of the CEV model implied by American option prices: Evidence from NYSE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Cecere, Liliana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a method to compute the parameters of the CEV model implied by American options. • This is the first procedure for calibrating the CEV model to American option prices. • The proposed approach is extensively tested on the NYSE market. • The novel method turns out to be very efficient in computing the CEV model parameters. • The CEV model provides only a marginal improvement over the lognormal model. - Abstract: We develop a highly efficient procedure to forecast the parameters of the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model implied by American options. In particular, first of all, the American option prices predicted by the CEV model are calculated using an accurate and fast finite difference scheme. Then, the parameters of the CEV model are obtained by minimizing the distance between theoretical and empirical option prices, which yields an optimization problem that is solved using an ad-hoc numerical procedure. The proposed approach, which turns out to be very efficient from the computational standpoint, is used to test the goodness-of-fit of the CEV model in predicting the prices of American options traded on the NYSE. The results obtained reveal that the CEV model does not provide a very good agreement with real market data and yields only a marginal improvement over the more popular Black–Scholes model.

  17. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Price fluctuations that partially comove with demand are a specific feature inherent to liberalized electricity markets. The regulatory authority in Great Britain, however, believed that sometimes electricity prices were significantly higher than what was expected and, therefore, introduced price-cap regulation and divestment series. In this study, I analyze how the introduced institutional changes and regulatory reforms affected the dynamics of daily electricity prices in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market during 1990–2001. This research finds that the introduction of price-cap regulation did achieve the goal of lowering the price level at the cost of higher price volatility. Later, the first series of divestments is found to be successful at lowering price volatility, which however happens at the cost of a higher price level. Finally, this study also documents that the second series of divestments was more successful at lowering both the price level and volatility. - Author-Highlights: • The impact of regulation on the dynamics of electricity prices is examined. • Price-cap regulation has decreased the level at the cost of higher volatility. • The first series of divestments has reversed the trade-off. • The reversed trade-off is explained as an indication of tacit collusion. • The second series of divestments is found generally successful

  18. Invester Response to Consumer Elasticity, Nordic Energy Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Stine Grenaa; Meibom, Peter; Ravn, Hans V.

    2004-01-01

    . The simulated investment decisions are taken in a stochastic, dynamic setting, where a key point is the timing of the investment decision in relation to the gathering of new information relative to the stochastic elements. Based on this, the consequences of the development in consumer price elasticity......, and it is generally assumed that the demand side has an important role in this, and increasingly so. However, since consumers have not earlier had the incentive to respond to electricity prices, no reliable estimate of demand elasticity is known. The purpose of the present study is to analyse the role of electricity...... demand elasticity for investments in new electricity production capacity. Electricity price scenarios generated with a partial equilibrium model (Balmorel) are combined with a model of investment decisions. In this, various scenarios concerning the development in the demand elasticity are used...

  19. Elasticity of Long Distance Travelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Mette Aagaard

    2011-01-01

    With data from the Danish expenditure survey for 12 years 1996 through 2007, this study analyses household expenditures for long distance travelling. Household expenditures are examined at two levels of aggregation having the general expenditures on transportation and leisure relative to five other...... aggregated commodities at the highest level, and the specific expenditures on plane tickets and travel packages at the lowest level. The Almost Ideal Demand System is applied to determine the relationship between expenditures on transportation and leisure and all other purchased non-durables within...... packages has higher income elasticity of demand than plane tickets but also higher than transportation and leisure in general. The findings within price sensitiveness are not as sufficient estimated, but the model results indicate that travel packages is far more price elastic than plane tickets which...

  20. Toward an Elasticity of Chip-N-Saw: Demand and Supply Models of Chip-N-Saw Stumpage in Louisiana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun M. Tanger

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Softwood chip-n-saw (CNS is a relatively new stumpage product in the sawtimber- and pulpwood-dominated stumpage markets in the U.S. South. Based on a quarterly data series from 2003 to 2016, this study estimates the demand and supply models of the softwood CNS stumpage market in Louisiana. The two-stage least squares (2SLS results reveal that own price elasticity of demand (PED is price elastic, and the cross-price elasticity (XEDwith sawtimber approaches unit elasticity. On the supply side, CNS is price inelastic in supply (PES, but more responsive to own price changesthan sawtimber quantity supplied. Further, severance tax increases are found to decrease the supply of CNS, indicating that suppliers are responsive to severance tax incidence. As the first empirical estimation of CNS, the findings should be of interest to those involved in the analysis of Southeastern stumpage markets.

  1. Internal strain estimation for quantification of human heel pad elastic modulus: A phantom study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Karen; Liebgott, Hervé; Wilhjelm, Jens E.

    2013-01-01

    Shock absorption is the most important function of the human heel pad. However, changes in heel pad elasticity, as seen in e.g. long-distance runners, diabetes patients, and victims of Falanga torture are affecting this function, often in a painful manner. Assessment of heel pad elasticity...... is usually based on one or a few strain measurements obtained by an external load-deformation system. The aim of this study was to develop a technique for quantitative measurements of heel pad elastic modulus based on several internal strain measures from within the heel pad by use of ultrasound images. Nine...... heel phantoms were manufactured featuring a combination of three heel pad stiffnesses and three heel pad thicknesses to model the normal human variation. Each phantom was tested in an indentation system comprising a 7MHz linear array ultrasound transducer, working as the indentor, and a connected load...

  2. Odhad cenové elasticity poptávky po ropě

    OpenAIRE

    Jonák, Ondřej

    2009-01-01

    Objective of this diploma thesis is estimation of price elasticity of crude oil demand. In order to calculation of such elasticity crude oil demand is estimated with econometrical methods. The choice of suitable model, which sufficiently and accurately models crude oil demand, is initial position of analysis. Consequently, crude oil demand is estimated from market data obtainable from public sources. This estimated model is verified from economic, statistic and econometric point of view. Cons...

  3. FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ACCURACY OF PRE-CONTRACT STAGE ESTIMATION OF FINAL CONTRACT PRICE IN NEW ZEALAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cong Ji

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Establishing and prioritising the factors that may influence the final contract price when responding to a call for tenders is crucial for proper risk analysis and reliable forecasting; it could make or mar the ability to achieve expected profit margin in an era of lump sum fixed price contracts where clients often contest variation claims. In New Zealand, these factors have not been researched; hence estimators rely only on judgement to ‘guess-estimate’ in their price forecasting. This study aimed to fill the knowledge gap by investigating the priority factors. 150 responses from professional members of the New Zealand Institute of Quantity Surveyors were analysed using multi-attribute method. Results showed thirty-seven factors which could influence the final contract price; the three most influential being poor tender documentation, complexity of design & construction, and completeness of project information. Other factors relating to project, client and contractor characteristics, design consultants and tendering conditions, estimating practice and external factors were reported. Concordance analysis indicated high level of agreement amongst survey participants in the rank-ordering of the relative importance of the identified factors. The findings could assist quantity surveyors to prepare more reliable contract price estimates at the pre-contract stage. It would also improve construction-stage cost control.

  4. Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

  5. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaihede, Michael Lyhne; Donghua, Liao; Gregersen, H.

    2007-01-01

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are r...... finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus....

  6. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? some evidence from an empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentenac Chemin, E.

    2009-04-01

    We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviours. The high volatility of petroleum prices and thus gasoline prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. Thus, in this paper, we estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the short and the long-term, in two countries: the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. - The United States: (1) The long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low (2) Households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. - India: (1) Price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short run. It is not surprising for an emergent country (2) It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption. (author)

  7. Estimation of Cost Pass Through to Michigan Consumers in the ADM Price Fixing Case

    OpenAIRE

    Cotterill, Ronald W.

    1998-01-01

    This report analyzes the economic impact of price fixing in the wet corn milling industry on consumers in the State of Michigan. Two of the companies who produce citric acid have pleaded guilty to fixing its price. In this report we assume that price fixing also occurred among HFCS producers. Given the structure of the corn wet milling industry and the direct purchaser industries, the overcharge is essentially uniform across buyers and selling arrangements. We develop an actual economic model...

  8. Elasticity of energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stam, M.

    2004-01-01

    Insight is given into the price elasticities of several energy carriers. Next, attention is paid to the impact of the discussion on changes of the Regulating Energy Levy (REB, abbreviated in Dutch) in the Netherlands [nl

  9. Determining the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes of PFI data in central region Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad Kamaruddin, Saadi Bin; Md Ghani, Nor Azura; Mohamed Ramli, Norazan

    2013-04-01

    The concept of Private Financial Initiative (PFI) has been implemented by many developed countries as an innovative way for the governments to improve future public service delivery and infrastructure procurement. However, the idea is just about to germinate in Malaysia and its success is still vague. The major phase that needs to be given main attention in this agenda is value for money whereby optimum efficiency and effectiveness of each expense is attained. Therefore, at the early stage of this study, estimating unitary charges or materials price indexes in each region in Malaysia was the key objective. This particular study aims to discover the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes in construction industry by different regions in the central region of Peninsular Malaysia (Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka). The unitary charges indexes data used were from year 2002 to 2011 monthly data of different states in the central region Peninsular Malaysia, comprising price indexes of aggregate, sand, steel reinforcement, ready mix concrete, bricks and partition, roof material, floor and wall finishes, ceiling, plumbing materials, sanitary fittings, paint, glass, steel and metal sections, timber and plywood. At the end of the study, it was found that Backpropagation Neural Network with linear transfer function produced the most accurate and reliable results for estimating unitary charges price indexes in every states in central region Peninsular Malaysia based on the Root Mean Squared Errors, where the values for both estimation and evaluation sets were approximately zero and highly significant at p Malaysia. The estimated price indexes of construction materials will contribute significantly to the value for money of PFI as well as towards Malaysian economical growth.

  10. Resonance estimates for single spin asymmetries in elastic electron-nucleon scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbara Pasquini; Marc Vanderhaeghen

    2004-01-01

    We discuss the target and beam normal spin asymmetries in elastic electron-nucleon scattering which depend on the imaginary part of two-photon exchange processes between electron and nucleon. We express this imaginary part as a phase space integral over the doubly virtual Compton scattering tensor on the nucleon. We use unitarity to model the doubly virtual Compton scattering tensor in the resonance region in terms of γ* N → π N electroabsorption amplitudes. Taking those amplitudes from a phenomenological analysis of pion electroproduction observables, we present results for beam and target normal single spin asymmetries for elastic electron-nucleon scattering for beam energies below 1 GeV and in the 1-3 GeV region, where several experiments are performed or are in progress

  11. Is youth smoking responsive to cigarette prices? Evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostova, Deliana; Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Markowitz, Sara

    2011-11-01

    To estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand among youth in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The Global Youth Tobacco Survey was used to obtain data on the smoking behaviour of 315,353 adolescents from 17 LMIC. Two-part model of cigarette demand with country fixed effects. The first part estimates the impact of prices on smoking participation while the second part estimates the impact of prices on the number of cigarettes smoked among current smokers. Besides controlling for individual characteristics such as Age, Gender, Parental Smoking and availability of Pocket Money, the authors control for confounding environmental factors such as anti-smoking sentiment, the prevalence of cigarette advertising and anti-tobacco media messAges, and ease of purchasing cigarettes. All countries in this study are represented with at least two observations over time, which allows us to control for unobserved country characteristics and/or policies that may influence smoking patterns within countries. Cigarette price is an important determinant of smoking. The estimated price elasticity of smoking participation is -0.74, and the estimated price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is approximately -1.37. The total price elasticity of cigarette demand is -2.11, implying that an increase in price of 10% would reduce youth cigarette consumption by 21.1% at the mean.

  12. Money demand in general equilibrium endogenous growth: Estimating the role of a variable interest elasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Gillman, Max; Otto, Glen

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and tests a theory of the demand for money that is derived from a general equilibrium, endogenous growth economy, which in effect combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away from money towards exchange credit. The implied interest elasticity of money demand rises with the inflation r...

  13. The price sensitivity of cigarette consumption in Bangladesh: evidence from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nargis, Nigar; Ruthbah, Ummul H; Hussain, A K M Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T; Huq, Iftekharul; Ashiquzzaman, S M

    2014-03-01

    In Bangladesh, the average excise tax on cigarettes accounted for just 38% of the average retail price of cigarettes in 2009, and 45% in 2010. Both these rates are well below the WHO recommended share of 70% of the retail price at a minimum. There is thus ample room for raising taxes on cigarettes in Bangladesh. The objective of the present work was therefore to estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and the effect of tax increases on the consumption of cigarettes and on tax revenue in Bangladesh. Based on data from Wave 1 (2009) and Wave 2 (2010) of the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Survey, we estimated the overall impact of a price change on cigarette demand using a two-part model. The total price elasticity of cigarettes was measured by the sum of the elasticity of smoking prevalence and the elasticity of average daily consumption conditional on smoking participation. The price elasticity estimates were used in a simulation model to predict changes in cigarette consumption and tax revenue from tax and price increases. The total price elasticity of demand for cigarettes was estimated at -0.49. The elasticity of smoking prevalence accounted for 59% of the total price elasticity. The price elasticity of cigarette consumption is higher for people belonging to lower socioeconomic status. Increases in taxes would result in a significant reduction in cigarette consumption while increasing tax revenue. Raising cigarette prices through increased taxation could lead to a win-win-win situation in Bangladesh: it would reduce cigarette consumption, increase tobacco tax revenue and potentially decrease socioeconomic inequities.

  14. Childcare Prices and Maternal Employment: a Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akgündüz, Y.E.; Plantenga, J.

    2015-01-01

    The literature estimates for labor force participation elasticity with regards to child care prices are extensive and varying. While some estimates imply substantial gains from child care subsidies, others find insignif-icant effects. Determining the reasons for the variance in the results and the

  15. Child care prices and maternal employment : A meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akgunduz, Yusuf Emre; Plantenga, Janneke

    The literature estimates for labor force participation elasticity with regard to child care prices are extensive and varying. While some estimates imply substantial gains from child care subsidies, others find insignificant effects. To determine the causes of the variance, this paper reviews and

  16. On the demand for prescription drugs: heterogeneity in price responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skipper, Niels

    2013-07-01

    This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for prescription drugs using an exogenous shift in consumer co-payment caused by a reform in the Danish subsidy scheme for the general public. Using purchasing records for the entire Danish population, I show that the average price response for the most commonly used drug yields demand elasticities in the range of -0.36 to -0.5. The reform is shown to affect women, the elderly, and immigrants the most. Furthermore, this paper shows significant heterogeneity in the price response over different types of antibiotics, suggesting that the price elasticity of demand varies considerably even across relatively similar drugs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  18. Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

    2017-12-01

    Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits - below which drugs are exempt from co-payments - on prices and on demand. First, using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the new policy decreases prices by 5 percent for generics and increases prices by 4 percent for brand-name drugs in the German reference price market. Second, estimating a nested-logit demand model, we show that consumers appreciate co-payment exempt drugs and calculate lower price elasticities for brand-name drugs than for generics. This explains the different price responses of brand-name and generic drugs and shows that price-related co-payment tiers are an effective tool to steer demand to low-priced drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentenac-Chemin, Elodie

    2012-01-01

    We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviors. The high volatility of petroleum prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. We estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. Concerning the United States, the long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low, but we show that households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. About India, price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short-run. It is not surprising for an emergent country. It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption.

  20. The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly...The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study Stanley Horowitz, Assistant Division...Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology Cost and Price Collaboration Venkat Rao, Professor, Defense

  1. Bounds and self-consistent estimates for elastic constants of polycrystals composed of orthorhombics or crystals with higher symmetries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berryman, James G

    2011-04-01

    Methods for computing Hashin-Shtrikman bounds and related self-consistent estimates of elastic constants for polycrystals composed of crystals having orthorhombic symmetry have been known for about three decades. However, these methods are underutilized, perhaps because of some perceived difficulties with implementing the necessary computational procedures. Several simplifications of these techniques are introduced, thereby reducing the overall computational burden, as well as the complications inherent in mapping out the Hashin-Shtrikman bounding curves. The self-consistent estimates of the effective elastic constants are very robust, involving a quickly converging iteration procedure. Once these self-consistent values are known, they may then be used to speed up the computations of the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds themselves. It is shown furthermore that the resulting orthorhombic polycrystal code can be used as well to compute both bounds and self-consistent estimates for polycrystals of higher-symmetry tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic (but not trigonal) materials. The self-consistent results found this way are shown to be the same as those obtained using the earlier methods, specifically those methods designed specially for each individual symmetry type. But the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds found using the orthorhombic code are either the same or (more typically) tighter than those found previously for these special cases (i.e., tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic). The improvement in the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds is presumably due to the additional degrees of freedom introduced into the available search space.

  2. Bounds and self-consistent estimates for elastic constants of granular polycrystals composed of orthorhombics or crystal with higher symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berryman, J. G.

    2011-02-01

    Methods for computing Hashin-Shtrikman bounds and related self-consistent estimates of elastic constants for polycrystals composed of crystals having orthorhombic symmetry have been known for about three decades. However, these methods are underutilized, perhaps because of some perceived difficulties with implementing the necessary computational procedures. Several simplifications of these techniques are introduced, thereby reducing the overall computational burden, as well as the complications inherent in mapping out the Hashin-Shtrikman bounding curves. The self-consistent estimates of the effective elastic constants are very robust, involving a quickly converging iteration procedure. Once these self-consistent values are known, they may then be used to speed up the computations of the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds themselves. It is shown furthermore that the resulting orthorhombic polycrystal code can be used as well to compute both bounds and self-consistent estimates for polycrystals of higher-symmetry tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic (but not trigonal) materials. The self-consistent results found this way are shown to be the same as those obtained using the earlier methods, specifically those methods designed specially for each individual symmetry type. But the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds found using the orthorhombic code are either the same or (more typically) tighter than those found previously for these special cases (i.e., tetragonal, hexagonal, and cubic). The improvement in the Hashin-Shtrikman bounds is presumably due to the additional degrees of freedom introduced into the available search space.

  3. Subsidence estimation of breakwater built on loosely deposited sandy seabed foundation: Elastic model or elasto-plastic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Shen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In offshore area, newly deposited Quaternary loose seabed soils are widely distributed. There are a great number of offshore structures has been built on them in the past, or will be built on them in the future due to the fact that there would be no very dense seabed soil foundation could be chosen at planed sites sometimes. However, loosely deposited seabed foundation would bring great risk to the service ability of offshore structures after construction. Currently, the understanding on wave-induced liquefaction mechanism in loose seabed foundation has been greatly improved; however, the recognition on the consolidation characteristics and settlement estimation of loose seabed foundation under offshore structures is still limited. In this study, taking a semi-coupled numerical model FSSI-CAS 2D as the tool, the consolidation and settlement of loosely deposited sandy seabed foundation under an offshore breakwater is investigated. The advanced soil constitutive model Pastor-Zienkiewics Mark III (PZIII is used to describe the quasi-static behavior of loose sandy seabed soil. The computational results show that PZIII model is capable of being used for settlement estimation problem of loosely deposited sandy seabed foundation. For loose sandy seabed foundation, elastic deformation is the dominant component in consolidation process. It is suggested that general elastic model is acceptable for subsidence estimation of offshore structures on loose seabed foundation; however, Young's modulus E must be dependent on the confining effective stress, rather than a constant in computation.

  4. Estimation of surface elasticity by the thickness change of liquid film and its correlation with foam stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Jung Ryoul; Park, Jai Koo [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-04-30

    The relationship between foam stability and surface elasticity by the thickness change of liquid film was investigated. Foam stability was measured by draining liquid volume and decreasing gas volume as a function of time. Foam was formed by the fixed gas-injection the surfactant aqueous solution of different concentration. The used surfactants were sodium lauryl sulfate, hexadecane sulfonic acid sodium salt, and octane sulfonic acid sodium salt. Thickness of liquid film was estimated by using the volume ratio of liquid to gas in foam and surface elasticity of lamella was calculated by the surface tension and adsorbed amount. The thinning of liquid film is due to the combined effects of gravity and capillary suction, it would be ruptured at the minimum of lamella thickness which is called critical thickness. The lamella thickness of bubble which was formed at CMC(critical micelle concentration) was very thin. In the case of sodium lauryl sulfate, the thinning of lamella was continued in the range of measurement. The critical thicknesses of octane sulfonic acid sodium salt solution, hexadecane sulfonic acid sodium salt solution were determined to 0.479{approx}0.316, 0.209{approx}0.200 {mu}m, respectively. It was found that the tendency for foam stability was similar to that of lamella thickness. It was considered that foam which was formed at CMC has very high stability, and the order of foam stability for surfactant aqueous solution was sodium lauryl sulfate > hexadecane sulfonic acid sodium salt > octane sulfonic acid sodium salt. These results was considered that the lamella-rupturing was retarded by the relatively high surface elasticity of lamella. The saturated adsorption of surfactant was determined to 3.25{approx}3.04 * 10{sup -6} mol/m{sup 2} and the surface elasticity of lamella was also determined to 3{approx}56 mN/m. (author). 19 refs., 1 tab., 11 figs.

  5. Estimating the cost of improving service quality in water supply: A shadow price approach for England and wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinos-Senante, María; Maziotis, Alexandros; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

    2016-01-01

    Service quality to customers is an aspect that cannot be ignored in the performance assessment of water companies. Nowadays water regulators introduce awards or penalties to incentivize companies to improve service quality to customers when setting prices. In this study, the directional distance function is employed to estimate the shadow prices of variables indicating the lack of service quality to customers in the water industry i.e., written complaints, unplanned interruptions and properties below the reference level. To calculate the shadow price of each undesirable output for each water company, it is needed to ascribe a reference price for the desirable output which is the volume of water delivered. An empirical application is carried out for water companies in England and Wales. Hence, the shadow price of each undesirable output is expressed both as a percentage of the price of the desirable output and in pence per cubic meter of water delivered The estimated results indicate that on average, each additional written complaint that needs to be dealt with by the water company includes a service quality cost of 0.399p/m(3). As expected, when looking at the other service quality variables which involve network repair or replacement, these values are considerably higher. On average, the water company must spend an extra 0.622p/m(3) to prevent one unplanned interruption and 0.702p/m(3) to avoid one water pressure below the reference level. The findings of this study are of great importance for regulated companies and regulators as it has been illustrated that improvements in the service quality in terms of customer service could be challenging and therefore ongoing investments will be required to address these issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Asymmetric adaptations to energy price changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuper, G.H.; Van Soest, D.P.

    1999-01-01

    The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investment characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility that result in testable hypotheses concerning the relative values of substitution parameters and rates of technological change in periods of high and increasing energy prices and in periods of low prices. Estimation results for a panel of sectors of the Dutch economy show that the elasticity of substitution between energy and other inputs is low in periods of low energy prices, whereas it is significantly higher in the preceding period of high and increasing energy prices. Furthermore, energy-saving technological progress in periods of high and increasing energy prices is also significantly higher than if energy prices are low and falling. The regression results suggest that, due this asymmetric response of firms to changes in energy prices, taxing energy in the current period of low energy prices will not yield substantial reductions in energy use of Dutch industry. 21 refs

  7. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  8. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  9. NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF EFFECTIVE ELASTIC MODULI OF SYNTACTIC FOAMS REINFORCED BY SHORT GLASS FIBERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The mechanical properties of hollow glass microsphere/epoxy resin syntactic foams reinforced by short glass fibers are studied using representative volume elements. Both the glass fibers and the hollow glass microspheres exhibit random arrangement in the epoxy resin. The volume fraction and wall thickness of hollow glass microspheres and the volume fraction of glass fibers are considered as parameters. It is observed that the elastic modulus values of syntactic foams decrease with the increase of microsphere volume fraction when the microsphere relative wall thickness is lower. However, it increases with the increase of microsphere volume fraction when the relative wall thickness exceeds a critical value. The elastic modulus value goes through a maximum when the relative wall thickness is around 0.06 at 25 % volume fraction of microspheres. The addition of glass fibers reduces the critical wall thickness values of the microspheres and increases the mechanical properties of the composites. The highest stress lies on the equatorial plane perpendicular to the loading direction. Adding fibers reduces the large stress distribution areas on the microspheres, and the fibers aligned with the loading direction play an important load-bearing role.

  10. Estimation of Elastic Modulus of Intact Rocks by Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocak, Ibrahim; Seker, Sadi Evren

    2012-11-01

    The modulus of elasticity of intact rock ( E i) is an important rock property that is used as an input parameter in the design stage of engineering projects such as dams, slopes, foundations, tunnel constructions and mining excavations. However, it is sometimes difficult to determine the modulus of elasticity in laboratory tests because high-quality cores are required. For this reason, various methods for predicting E i have been popular research topics in recently published literature. In this study, the relationships between the uniaxial compressive strength, unit weight ( γ) and E i for different types of rocks were analyzed, employing an artificial neural network and 195 data obtained from laboratory tests carried out on cores obtained from drilling holes within the area of three metro lines in Istanbul, Turkey. Software was developed in Java language using Weka class libraries for the study. To determine the prediction capacity of the proposed technique, the root-mean-square error and the root relative squared error indices were calculated as 0.191 and 92.587, respectively. Both coefficients indicate that the prediction capacity of the study is high for practical use.

  11. Evaluating Pricing Strategy Using e-Commerce Data: Evidence and Estimation Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Ghose, Anindya; Sundararajan, Arun

    2006-01-01

    As Internet-based commerce becomes increasingly widespread, large data sets about the demand for and pricing of a wide variety of products become available. These present exciting new opportunities for empirical economic and business research, but also raise new statistical issues and challenges. In this article, we summarize research that aims to assess the optimality of price discrimination in the software industry using a large e-commerce panel data set gathered from Amazon.com. We describ...

  12. Estimating core inflation : the role of oil price shocks and imported inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane

    1997-01-01

    This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that ...

  13. The elasticity of drugs demand in Colombia’s pharmaceutical market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Vásquez Velásquez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on a dynamic specification of the AIDS model arisen from cointegration techniques, this research estimated the elasticity of the intra-molecular, brand and generic demand for three tracer conditions: essential hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia both in the non-profit and private Colombian market. The estimate of the intra-molecular demand elasticity allows us to conclude that both brand-name and generic drugs are inelastic to price changes, they are luxury goods according to expenditure elasticity and intra-molecular replacement seems to exist due to the elasticity of substitution.

  14. Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Tuominen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

  15. Differential Responsiveness to Cigarette Price by Education and Income among Adult Urban Chinese Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Zheng, Rong; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Jiang, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    Background There are few studies that examine the impact of tobacco tax and price policies in China. In addition, very little is known about the differential responses to tax and price increases based on socioeconomic status in China. Objective The goal of this study is to estimate the conditional cigarette consumption price elasticity among adult urban smokers in China using individual level longitudinal survey data. We also examine the differential responses to cigarette price increases among groups with different income and/or educational levels. Methods Multivariate analyses using the general estimating equations (GEE) method were conducted to estimate the conditional cigarette demand price elasticity using data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey, a longitudinal survey of adult smokers in seven cities in China. The first three waves of the ITC China Survey data were used in this analysis. Analyses based on subsample by education and income were conducted. Findings Our results show that overall conditional cigarette demand price elasticity ranges from −0.12 to −0.14, implying a 10% increase in cigarette price would result in a reduction in cigarette consumption among adult urban Chinese smokers by 1.2% to 1.4%. No differential responses to cigarette price increase were found across education levels. The price elasticity estimates do not differ between high income smokers and medium income smokers. However, cigarette consumption among low income smokers did not seem to decrease after a price increase, at least among those who continued to smoke. Conclusion Relative to many other low- and middle-income countries, cigarette consumption among Chinese adult smokers is not very sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. The total impact of cigarette price increase would be larger if its impact on smoking initiation and cessation, as well as the price-reducing behaviors such as brand switching and trading down, were taken into account. PMID

  16. Divisia amount and price index for energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, J.

    1993-01-01

    In connection with the calculation of total energy consumption related to aggregation of the individual fuel's combustion values, an alternative to Btu aggregation (combustion value measurement), designated the ''Divisia index'', is presented. This represents an economic measure for energy consumption. The Divisia index is demonstrated in relation to total national energy consumption and total energy consumption within the Danish housing sector and also with regard to the estimation of price and income elasticity within energy demand. It is only possible to utilize the Divisia index in relation to the last 20 years, which is the period where energy consumption has stagnated. The question of possible irreversible effects on energy consumption caused by large variations in energy prices is discussed. It is suggested that the reaction to a fall in prices is different and less significant than is the case with price rises. In the long term, results point at a reasonably high price elasticity within energy demand. (AB) (22 refs.)

  17. Does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in China?Long-run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Ben

    2015-01-01

    Although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use, the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization's effects on energy transition dynamics in China remains unknown. Using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011, this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long-run and short-run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified. Coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization. A set of newly developed regression techniques, namely well-performed common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, are used to treat residual cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals, and unlikely-to-hold homogeneous slope assumptions. The results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive, with long-run elasticities of 0.14% to 0.37% and 0.23% to 0.29%, respectively, whereas China's urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity. The fact that short-run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long-run values indicates that the short-run effect, that is, indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in China. An energy transition from high-pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in China, although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy. From a regional perspective, urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province-specific. The findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast-growing economies such

  18. How Are Property Investment Returns Determined? : Estimating the Micro-Structure of Asset Prices, Property Income, and Discount Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Shimizu, Chihiro

    2014-01-01

    How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commercial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment ret...

  19. Econometric estimation of the “Constant Elasticity of Substitution" function in R

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Henningsen, Geraldine

    for estimating the traditional CES function with two inputs as well as nested CES functions with three and four inputs. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these approaches can be applied in R using the add-on package micEconCES and we describe how the various estimation approaches are implemented in the mic......EconCES package. Finally, we illustrate the usage of this package by replicating some estimations of CES functions that are reported in the literature....

  20. Elasticities of demand for gasoline in Canada and the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicol, C.J.

    2003-01-01

    Fluctuations in the world price of oil, the concern with greenhouse gas emissions and the efforts to revive the 1997 Kyoto Protocol have resulted in renewed interest in the estimation of elasticities of demand for gasoline. In this paper, a complete system of demand equations is estimated, including an equation for the demand for gasoline. Canadian family expenditure (FAMEX) and United States consumer expenditure (CEX) survey data are used. Household-level data permits estimation of elasticities for various household groups. Also, differences in demand responsiveness to own-price and income changes are estimated for different regions in Canada and the United States. Demand is found to be own-price and income inelastic, on the whole, as reported in earlier studies. There is also variation in these elasticities across regions of Canada and the United States. However, larger differences are observed with respect to household size and housing tenure, than to region of residence

  1. Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, Paul J.; Nishitateno, Shuhei

    2013-01-01

    Countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline. This paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport. To address the potential for simultaneity bias, we use both a country's oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country's average gasoline pump price. We obtain estimates of the long-run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between − 0.2 and − 0.5. Using newly available data for a sub-sample of 43 countries, we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel-efficient, with an estimated elasticity of + 0.2. Despite the small size of our elasticity estimates, there is considerable scope for low-price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and/or increasing gasoline taxes. - Highlights: ► We estimate the determinants of gasoline demand and new-vehicle fuel economy. ► Estimates are for a large sample of countries for the period 1995–2008. ► We instrument for gasoline prices using oil reserves and the world crude oil price. ► Gasoline demand and fuel economy are inelastic with respect to the gasoline price. ► Large energy efficiency gains are possible via higher gasoline prices

  2. When Do Price Thresholds Matter in Retail Categories?

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Pauwels; Shuba Srinivasan; Philip Hans Franses

    2007-01-01

    Marketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This paper introduces smooth transition regression models to study threshold-based price elasticity of the top 4 brands across 20 fast-moving consumer good categories. Threshold-based price elasticity is found for 76% ...

  3. When do price thresholds matter in retail categories?

    OpenAIRE

    Pauwels, Koen; Srinivasan, Shuba; Franses, Philip Hans

    2007-01-01

    textabstractMarketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This paper introduces smooth transition regression models to study threshold-based price elasticity of the top 4 brands across 20 fast-moving consumer good categories. Threshold-based price elasticity is fo...

  4. Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Smyth, Russell; Prasad, Arti

    2007-01-01

    This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run and short-run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in G7 countries. The panel results indicate that in the long-run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic. The study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the G7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand, and thus curb carbon emissions, in the long run. (author)

  5. Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); T. Khamkaew (Tanchanok); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal

  6. Performance/price estimates for cortex-scale hardware: a design space exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, Mazad S; Hammerstrom, Dan

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we revisit the concept of virtualization. Virtualization is useful for understanding and investigating the performance/price and other trade-offs related to the hardware design space. Moreover, it is perhaps the most important aspect of a hardware design space exploration. Such a design space exploration is a necessary part of the study of hardware architectures for large-scale computational models for intelligent computing, including AI, Bayesian, bio-inspired and neural models. A methodical exploration is needed to identify potentially interesting regions in the design space, and to assess the relative performance/price points of these implementations. As an example, in this paper we investigate the performance/price of (digital and mixed-signal) CMOS and hypothetical CMOL (nanogrid) technology based hardware implementations of human cortex-scale spiking neural systems. Through this analysis, and the resulting performance/price points, we demonstrate, in general, the importance of virtualization, and of doing these kinds of design space explorations. The specific results suggest that hybrid nanotechnology such as CMOL is a promising candidate to implement very large-scale spiking neural systems, providing a more efficient utilization of the density and storage benefits of emerging nano-scale technologies. In general, we believe that the study of such hypothetical designs/architectures will guide the neuromorphic hardware community towards building large-scale systems, and help guide research trends in intelligent computing, and computer engineering. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimating the economic value of cultural ecosystem services in an urbanizing area using hedonic pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather A. Sander; Robert G. Haight

    2012-01-01

    A need exists to increase both knowledge and recognition of the values associated with ecosystem services and amenities. This article explores the use of hedonic pricing as a tool for eliciting these values. We take a case study approach, valuing several services provided by ecosystems, namely aesthetic quality (views), access to outdoor recreation, and the benefits...

  8. Estimates of the price of hydrogen as a medium for wind and solar sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bockris, John O'M.; Veziroglu, T. Nejat

    2007-01-01

    The rejection of hydrogen as a solution to global warming by becoming the medium of wind and solar was made when gasoline was priced at $1/gallon. From wind, H 2 would now cost (by electrolysis of water and steam) less than $3 for an amount equivalent in energy to that in a gallon of gasoline ('equivalent'). From solar photovoltaics (pv), H 2 would be sinking in price between $8 toward $5 equivalent as the efficiency of solar pv increases toward 20%. Solar thermal's present prices offer about one-half the solar pv prices. Prediction of the maximum of the delivery rate of world oil is [Laherre's Oil Production Forecast, 1950-2150. Reprinted with permission from correspondence with William Horvath, U.S. Department of Energy, March 29, 2001] 2010. Future energy sources will develop inexhaustible energies from wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and wave sources. The common media will be hydrogen and electricity. These sources yield energy at around one-half the cost of nuclear fission. Growing corn to make alcohol involves a net loss of energy and need for a heating mechanism. It may increase the Greenhouse. (author)

  9. Survey-based estimates of biases in consumer price indices during transition: evidence from Romania

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Filer, Randall K.; Hanousek, Jan

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 3 (2002), s. 476-487 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : price * inflation * transition * Romania Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.806, year: 2002 http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jcec.2002.1784

  10. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

    2009-01-01

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  11. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

    2009-09-15

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  12. Modelling energy and non-energy substitution: A brief survey of elasticities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frondel, Manuel

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the degree of substitution between energy and non-energy inputs is the key for any evaluation of environmental and energy policies. Yet, given the variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises as to which measure would be most appropriate. Apparently, Allen's elasticities of substitution have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. In line with , this paper argues that cross-price elasticities are preferable for many practical purposes. This conclusion is based on a survey of classical substitution measures, such as those from Allen, Morishima, and McFadden. The survey highlights the fact that cross-price elasticities are their essential ingredients. - Highlights: → Given the large variety of substitution elasticities, the central question arises as to which measure would be most appropriate. Apparently, Allen's elasticities of substitution have been the most-used measures in applied production analysis. → In line with , this paper argues that cross-price elasticities are preferable for many practical purposes. → This conclusion is based on a survey of classical substitution measures, such as those from Allen, Morishima, and McFadden. → The survey also highlights the fact that cross-price elasticities are their essential ingredients.

  13. Health care demand elasticities by type of service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Martins, Bruno; Zhu, Wenjia

    2017-09-01

    We estimate within-year price elasticities of demand for detailed health care services using an instrumental variable strategy, in which individual monthly cost shares are instrumented by employer-year-plan-month average cost shares. A specification using backward myopic prices gives more plausible and stable results than using forward myopic prices. Using 171 million person-months spanning 73 employers from 2008 to 2014, we estimate that the overall demand elasticity by backward myopic consumers is -0.44, with higher elasticities of demand for pharmaceuticals (-0.44), specialists visits (-0.32), MRIs (-0.29) and mental health/substance abuse (-0.26), and lower elasticities for prevention visits (-0.02) and emergency rooms (-0.04). Demand response is lower for children, in larger firms, among hourly waged employees, and for sicker people. Overall the method appears promising for estimating elasticities for highly disaggregated services although the approach does not work well on services that are very expensive or persistent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Customer response to day-ahead market hourly pricing: Choices and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan, Bernie

    2006-01-01

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated to address extreme price volatility and market power in electricity markets. This study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation's largest customers analyzes their choices and performance in response to day-ahead, default-service RTP. Overall price response is modest: 119 customers are estimated to reduce their peak demand by about 10% at high prices. Manufacturing customers are most responsive with a price elasticity of 0.16, followed by government/education customers (0.11), while commercial/retail, healthcare and public works customers are, at present, relatively unresponsive. Within market segments, individual customer response varies significantly. (author)

  15. An in situ estimation of anisotropic elastic moduli for a submarine shale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Douglas E.; Leaney, Scott; Borland, William H.

    1994-11-01

    Direct arrival times and slownesses from wide-aperture walkaway vertical seismic profile data acquired in a layered anisotropic medium can be processed to give direct estimate of the phase slowness surface associated with the medium at the depth of the receivers. This slowness surface can, in turn, be fit by an estimated transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis (a 'TIV' medium). While the method requires that the medium between the receivers and the surface be horizontally stratified, no further measurement or knowledge of that medium is required. When applied to data acquired in a compacting shale sequence (here termed the 'Petronas shale') encountered by a well in the South China Sea, the method yields an estimated TIV medium that fits the data extremely well over 180 deg of propagation angles sampled by 201 source positions. The medium is strongly anisotropic. The anisotropy is significantly anelliptic and implies that the quasi-shear mode should be triplicated for off-axis propagation. Estimated density-normalized moduli (in units of sq km/sq s) for the Petronas shale are A(sub 11) = 6.99 +/- 0.21, A(sub 33) = 5.53 +/- 0.17, A(sub 55) = 0.91 +/- 0.05, and A(sub 13) = 2.64 +/- 0.26. Densities in the logged zone just below the survey lie in the range between 2200 and 2400 kg/cu m with an average value close to 2300 kg/cu m.

  16. Motor fuel prices in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdogdu, Erkan

    2014-01-01

    The world's most expensive motor fuel (gasoline, diesel and LPG) is sold most likely in the Republic of Turkey. This paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in Turkey. First of all, the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices, namely motor fuel taxes in Turkey. Then, it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in Turkey using an econometric analysis. The findings indicate that motor fuel demand in Turkey is quite inelastic and, therefore, not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre-tax prices or taxes. Therefore, fuel market in Turkey is open to opportunistic behavior by firms (through excessive profits) and the government (through excessive taxes). Besides, the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities, including the pattern of passenger transportation, motorization rate, fuel use, total kilometers traveled and CO 2 emissions from road transportation. The impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in Turkey and Turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study. - Highlights: • The key issues (e.g. taxes) related to motor fuel prices in Turkey are explored. • Their impact on transport activities and income distribution is also investigated. • An econometric analysis is performed to estimate motor fuel demand in Turkey. • Motor fuel demand in Turkey is found to be quite inelastic. • Turkish fuel market is open to opportunistic behavior by firms and the government

  17. Meta-analýza cenové elasticity poptávky po alkoholu

    OpenAIRE

    Fanta, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    The own-price elasticity is considered to be one of the key factors describing the demand for alcohol. There have been many estimates computed by now but only a few studies tried to analyse them. The aim of this meta-analysis is to discover more about the eventual effects that publication bias might have in the alcohol-related literature. The first part describes the various types of elasticities and the methods of estimation. This study is estimating the so called true effect elasticity in o...

  18. ACFAC: a cash flow analysis code for estimating product price from an industrial operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1980-04-01

    A computer code is presented which uses a discountted cash flow methodology to obtain an average product price for an industtrial process. The general discounted cash flow method is discussed. Special code options include multiple treatments of interest during construction and other preoperational costs, investment tax credits, and different methods for tax depreciation of capital assets. Two options for allocating the cost of plant decommissioning are available. The FORTRAN code listing and the computer output for a sample problem are included

  19. The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports

    OpenAIRE

    Aulerich, Nicole M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Nelson, Carl H.

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of USDA crop production reports in corn and soybean futures markets. The analysis is based on all corn and soybean production reports released over 1970-2006. The empirical analysis compares the typical OLS event study approach to the new Identification by Censoring (ITC) technique. Corn and soybean production reports are analyzed both separately and together for impact in corn and soybean futures prices. ITC proves to be the more useful method because it av...

  20. Estimating the Performance of Random Forest versus Multiple Regression for Predicting Prices of the Apartments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Čeh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study is to analyse the predictive performance of the random forest machine learning technique in comparison to commonly used hedonic models based on multiple regression for the prediction of apartment prices. A data set that includes 7407 records of apartment transactions referring to real estate sales from 2008–2013 in the city of Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, was used in order to test and compare the predictive performances of both models. Apparent challenges faced during modelling included (1 the non-linear nature of the prediction assignment task; (2 input data being based on transactions occurring over a period of great price changes in Ljubljana whereby a 28% decline was noted in six consecutive testing years; and (3 the complex urban form of the case study area. Available explanatory variables, organised as a Geographic Information Systems (GIS ready dataset, including the structural and age characteristics of the apartments as well as environmental and neighbourhood information were considered in the modelling procedure. All performance measures (R2 values, sales ratios, mean average percentage error (MAPE, coefficient of dispersion (COD revealed significantly better results for predictions obtained by the random forest method, which confirms the prospective of this machine learning technique on apartment price prediction.

  1. Analysis of unity price-elasticity of ‘Gala’ apple’s demand/ Análise de elasticidade preço unitário da demanda de maçã ‘Gala’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel Noce

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available This study was accomplished with the objective of esteeming the value of price of the ‘Gala’ apple in which the total revenue obtained with the commercialization would be maximum. From the demand equation it was possible to analyze the price elasticity and to make inferences on the ‘Gala’ apple commercialization in Brazil.Este estudo foi realizado com o objetivo de estimar o valor de preço da maçã ‘Gala’ no qual a receita total obtida com a comercialização seria máxima. A partir da equação de demanda foi possível analisar a elasticidade de preço e fazer inferências sobre a comercialização de maçã ‘Gala’ no Brasil.

  2. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  3. Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

    1987-05-01

    Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

  4. Modeling of the Maximum Entropy Problem as an Optimal Control Problem and its Application to Pdf Estimation of Electricity Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Haji Abadi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the continuous optimal control theory is used to model and solve the maximum entropy problem for a continuous random variable. The maximum entropy principle provides a method to obtain least-biased probability density function (Pdf estimation. In this paper, to find a closed form solution for the maximum entropy problem with any number of moment constraints, the entropy is considered as a functional measure and the moment constraints are considered as the state equations. Therefore, the Pdf estimation problem can be reformulated as the optimal control problem. Finally, the proposed method is applied to estimate the Pdf of the hourly electricity prices of New England and Ontario electricity markets. Obtained results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

  5. Health insurance and the demand for medical care: Instrumental variable estimates using health insurer claims data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Abe

    2016-07-01

    This paper takes a different approach to estimating demand for medical care that uses the negotiated prices between insurers and providers as an instrument. The instrument is viewed as a textbook "cost shifting" instrument that impacts plan offerings, but is unobserved by consumers. The paper finds a price elasticity of demand of around -0.20, matching the elasticity found in the RAND Health Insurance Experiment. The paper also studies within-market variation in demand for prescription drugs and other medical care services and obtains comparable price elasticity estimates. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Multitaper spectral method to estimate the elastic thickness of South China: Implications for intracontinental deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangfan Deng

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The effective elastic thickness (Te represents the thickness of the elastic layer or the flexural rigidity of the lithosphere, the equivalent of which can be calculated from the spectral analysis of gravity and topographic data. Studies of Te have profound influence on intracontinental deformation, and coupling of the tectonic blocks. In this paper, we use the multitaper spectral estimation method to calculate the coherence between Bouguer gravity and topography data, and to obtain the Te map of South China. Through the process of correction, we discuss the relationships of Te versus heat flow, and Te versus seismicity. The results show that Te distribution of South China is affected by three factors: the original age, which controls the basic feature; the Mesozoic evolution, which affects the Te distribution; and the neotectonic movement, which shaped the final distribution. The crust age has a positive correlation with the first-order Te distribution; thus the Yangtze Craton has a relatively higher Te (about 50 km whereas the Te in Cathaysia block is only 10–20 km. By analysis and comparison among the tectonic models of South China, the Te distribution can be well explained using the flat-subduction model. As is typical with neotectonics, the region with a higher heat flow is related with a lower Te. The seismicity does not have a clear relationship with Te, but the strong seismicity could cause a low Te. Seismogenic layer (Ts has a similar trend as Te in the craton, whereas in other areas the relationship is complex.

  7. An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crotte, Amado [Mexican Ministry of Communications and Transport, Mexico City (Mexico); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, E. J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ London (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-15

    The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by, and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City. (author)

  8. An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crotte, Amado; Noland, Robert B.; Graham, Daniel J.

    2010-01-01

    The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by, and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City. (author)

  9. An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

  10. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  11. Calibration of CIR processes to CVA data and applications to estimation of Market Price of Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvolby, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Høg, Esben

    2018-01-01

    We present a rigorous framework for CDS valuation and calibration to market quotes on single-name CDSs and methods of calculating the market price of risk (MPR) on such markets. We use the results of MPR for bond markets, and thus the MPR corresponds to the survival probabilities, which is a non......-tradable asset. Further, we present a set-up for numerical valuation of triparty CDS agreements, where two default risky parties trade a CDS with a third entity as reference credit....

  12. Estimation of Hedonic Single-Family House Price Function Considering Neighborhood Effect Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chihiro Shimizu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the formulation of hedonic models, in addition to locational factors and building structures which affect the house prices, the generation of the omitted variable bias is thought to occur in cases when local environmental variables and the individual characteristics of house buyers are not taken into consideration. However, since it is difficult to obtain local environmental information in a small neighborhood unit and to observe individual characteristics of house buyers, these variables have not been sufficiently considered in previous studies. We demonstrated that non-negligible levels of omitted variable bias are generated if these variables are not considered.

  13. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberini, Anna; Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: → Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. → Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. → Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  14. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberini, Anna [Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Maryland (United States); Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Gibson Institute and Institute for a Sustainable World, School of Biological Sciences, Queen' s University Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Filippini, Massimo, E-mail: mfilippini@ethz.ch [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Department of Economics, University of Lugano (Switzerland)

    2011-09-15

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: > Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. > Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. > Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  15. Estimating Price Volatility Structure in Iran’s Meat Market: Application of General GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rasouli Birami

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past few years, the price volatility of agricultural products and food markets has attracted attention of many researchers and policy makers. This growing attention was started from the food price crisis in 2007 and 2008 when major agricultural products faced accelerated price increases and then rapidly decreased. This paper focused on the price volatility of major commodities related to three market levels of Iran’s meat market, including hay (the input level, calf and sheep (the wholesale level and beef and mutton (the retail level. In particular, efforts will made to find more appropriate models for explaining the behavior of volatility of the return series and to identify which return series are more volatile. The effects of good and bad news on the volatility of prices in each return series will also be studied. Materials and Methods: Different GARCH type models have been considered the best for modeling volatility of return series. Nonlinear GARCH models were introduced to capture the effect of good and bad news separately. The paper uses some GARCH type models including GARCH, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH (TGARCH, Simple Asymmetric GARCH (SAGARCH, Power GARCH (PGARCH, Non-linear GARCH (NGARCH, Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH and Non-linear Power GARCH (NPGARCH to model the volatility of hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton return series. The data on hay, calf, sheep, and beef and mutton monthly prices are published by Iran’s livestock support firm. The paper uses monthly data over the sample period of the May 1992 to the March 2014. Results and Discussion: Descriptive statistics of the studied return series show evidence of skewness and kurtosis. The results here show that all the series has fat tails. The significant p-values for the Ljung-Box Q-statistics mean that the auto-correlation exists in the squared residuals. The presence of unit roots in the return series is confirmed by the

  16. OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices. Further test of the target revenue theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramcharran, H.

    2001-01-01

    Oil production cutbacks in recent years by OPEC members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory (TRT). We estimate a modified version of Griffin (1985) target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000. The sample period, unlike previous investigations, includes phases of both price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior. The results, like the earlier study, are not supportive of the strict version of the TRT, however, evidence (negative and significant elasticity of supply) of the partial version are substantiated. Further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model, hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies

  17. Estimation of elastic modulus of reinforcement corrosion products using inverse analysis of digital image correlation measurements for input in corrosion-induced cracking model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Michel, Alexander; Thybo, Anna Emilie A.

    2012-01-01

    A combined experimental and numerical approach for estimating the elastic modulus of reinforcement corrosion products is presented. Deformations between steel and mortar were measured using digital image correlation during accelerated corrosion testing at 100 μA/cm2 (~1.16 mm/year). Measured defo...

  18. The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hang, Leiming; Tu, Meizeng

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered

  19. Labor demand effects of rising electricity prices: Evidence for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, Michael; Peichl, Andreas; Pestel, Nico; Siegloch, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Germany continues to play a pioneering role in replacing conventional power plants with renewable energy sources. While this might be beneficial with respect to environmental quality, it also implies increasing electricity prices. The extent to which this is associated with negative impacts on employment depends on the interrelationship between labor and electricity as input factors in the production process. In this paper, we estimate cross-price elasticities between electricity and heterogeneous labor for the German manufacturing sector. We use administrative linked employer–employee micro-data combined with information on sector-level electricity prices and usage over the period 2003–2007. We find positive, but small conditional cross-price elasticities of labor demand with respect to electricity prices, which means that electricity as an input factor can be replaced by labor to a limited extent when the production level is held constant. In the case of adjustable output, we find negative unconditional cross-price elasticities, implying that higher electricity prices lead to output reductions and to lower labor demand, with low- and high-skilled workers being affected more than medium-skilled. Resulting adverse distributional effects and potential overall job losses may pose challenges for policy-makers in securing public support for the German energy turnaround. - Highlights: • We estimate cross-price elasticities for electricity and labor in manufacturing. • We use linked employer–employee micro-data from Germany for 2003 to 2007. • We find a weak substitutability between electricity and labor for constant output. • We find complementarity between electricity and labor for adjustable output. • Low- and high-skilled workers are more affected than medium-skilled

  20. Oil prices and the U.S. business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2006-06-01

    The recent surge in oil prices rakes up old fears and the spectre of stagflation hangs over worldwide economic growth's forecasts. After 30 years of research however analysts still disagree about the influence of oil prices on macro-economic variations and the estimations of the consequences of a costlier barrel differ. As to the United States for example, elasticities between real GDP and oil price form a wide spectrum stretching from a value close to -1% to -11,6%. In this context, we try to identify the potential sources of instability in the oil price-macro-economy relationship in order to explain the width of this range. First we draw attention to the distinction between the effects of an upward disequilibrium and of an upturn in the equilibrium in the oil price series. This distinction lets us share the range of published results in two parts: the elasticities of real American GDP with respect to an upward imbalance and with respect to a rise in the equilibrium price would lie approximately in the ranges extending, respectively, from -1% to -5,5% and from -5% to -11,6%. We direct our work towards the analysis of the consequences of short-run variations in the oil prices on the U.S. business cycle. We identify a set of influences which condition the vulnerability of an economy and then construct an econometric sectoral and non-linear model inspired from Marshall's theory. The simulations conducted let us explain the long-run weakening in the oil price-macro-economy relationship and highlight the prominent part played by imported inflation and monetary policy in the crisis of the 70's and 80's. According to the values of the structural factors in the model and to the shape of the oil price short-run disequilibrium, the elasticities evaluated cover the whole range of published elasticities. (author)

  1. An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozturk, Ilhan; Arisoy, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to model crude oil import demand and estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey based on a time-varying parameters (TVP) approach with the aim of obtaining accurate and more robust estimates of price and income elasticities. This study employs annual time series data of domestic oil consumption, real GDP, and oil price for the period 1966–2012. The empirical results indicate that both the income and price elasticities are in line with the theoretical expectations. However, the income elasticity is statistically significant while the price elasticity is statistically insignificant. The relatively high value of income elasticity (1.182) from this study suggests that crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. This result indicates that imported crude oil is a normal good and rising income levels will foster higher consumption of oil based equipments, vehicles and services by economic agents. The estimated income elasticity of 1.182 suggests that imported crude oil consumption grows at a higher rate than income. This in turn reduces oil intensity over time. Therefore, crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income. - Highlights: • We estimated the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey. • Income elasticity is statistically significant and it is 1.182. • The price elasticity is statistically insignificant. • Crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. • Crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income.

  2. Residential Water Demand in a Mexican Biosphere Reserve: Evidence of the Effects of Perceived Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Almendarez-Hernández

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence for policy-makers of water management, evaluate the applicability of economic variables such as price and other factors that affect demand, and determine the impact thereof on decision-making surrounding water management in the El Vizcaino Biosphere Reserve in Mexico. We estimated a dynamic function with an average price specification, as well as price perception specification. Findings demonstrated that consumers tend to react to perceived average price but not to the marginal price. Furthermore, long-term price elasticity was found to be higher than short-term elasticity, and both elasticities were found to be inelastic. Inelastic elasticities, coupled with rising prices, generate substantial revenues with which to improve water planning and supply quality and to expand service coverage. The results suggest that users’ level of knowledge surrounding price is a key factor to take into account when restructuring rates, especially in situations where consumers do not readily possess the necessary information about their rate structure and usage within a given billing period. Furthermore, the results can help water management policy-makers to achieve goals of economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental sustainability.

  3. An econometric method for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures : applied to Malawi and Mauritius

    OpenAIRE

    Ehdaie, Jaber

    1990-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric technique that deals with shortcomings of existing methods for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures. This model highlights the roles that discretionary tax measures and economic growth play in effecting the shift from the taxation of international trade to the taxation of domestic transactions. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to develop an econometric method of estimating built-in tax elasticit...

  4. Heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Jenn, Alan; Azevedo, Inês M.L.

    2015-01-01

    The consumer response to changing gasoline prices has long interested economists and policymakers, for it has important implications for the effects of gasoline taxation and vehicle energy efficiency policies. This study examines both the elasticity of driving with respect to changing gasoline prices and heterogeneity in this elasticity by geography, the fuel economy of the vehicle, and the age of the vehicle. We use detailed annual vehicle-level emissions inspection test data from Pennsylvania that include odometer readings, inspection zip codes, and extensive vehicle characteristics. We estimate a short-run gasoline price elasticity of driving demand of − 0.10, and find substantial heterogeneity in this responsiveness. The elasticity is largely driven by low fuel economy vehicles, as well as vehicles between 3 and 7 years old. Our findings help reconcile some of the recent literature and provide guidance on the magnitude of the direct rebound effect from light duty vehicle energy efficiency policies.

  5. Estimating the shadow prices of SO2 and NOx for U.S. coal power plants: A convex nonparametric least squares approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mekaroonreung, Maethee; Johnson, Andrew L.

    2012-01-01

    Weak disposability between outputs and pollutants, defined as a simultaneous proportional reduction of both outputs and pollutants, assumes that pollutants are byproducts of the output generation process and that a firm can “freely dispose” of both by scaling down production levels, leaving some inputs idle. Based on the production axioms of monotonicity, convexity and weak disposability, we formulate a convex nonparametric least squares (CNLS) quadratic optimization problem to estimate a frontier production function assuming either a deterministic disturbance term consisting only of inefficiency, or a composite disturbance term composed of both inefficiency and noise. The suggested methodology extends the stochastic semi-nonparametric envelopment of data (StoNED) described in Kuosmanen and Kortelainen (2011). Applying the method to estimate the shadow prices of SO 2 and NO x generated by U.S. coal power plants, we conclude that the weak disposability StoNED method provides more consistent estimates of market prices. - Highlights: ► Develops methodology to estimate shadow prices for SO 2 and NO x in the U.S. coal power plants. ► Extends CNLS and StoNED methods to include the weak disposability assumption. ► Estimates the range of SO 2 and NO x shadow prices as 201–343 $/ton and 409–1352 $/ton. ► StoNED method provides more accurate estimates of shadow prices than deterministic frontier.

  6. Economic impact on the Florida economy of energy price spikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mory, J.F.

    1992-01-01

    A substantial disturbance in oil supplies is likely to generate a large price upsurge and a downturn in the level of economic activity. Each of these two effects diminishes demand by a certain amount. The specific price surge required to reduce demand to the lower level of supply can be calculated with an oil demand function and with empirical estimations of the association between price spikes and declines in economic activity. The first section presents an energy demand model for Florida, which provides the price and income elasticities needed. The second section includes theoretical explanations and empirical estimations of the relationship between price spikes and recessions. Based on historical evidence, it seems that Florida's and the nation's economic systems are very sensitive to oil price surges. As price spikes appear damaging to the economy, it could be expected that reductions in the price of oil are beneficial to the system. That is likely to be the case in the long run, but no empirical evidence of favorable short-term effects of oil price decreases was found. Several possible explanations and theoretical reasons are offered to explain this lack of association. The final section presents estimates of the effect of oil disruptions upon specific industries in Florida and the nation

  7. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Koichiro

    Consumers Respond to Nonlinear Pricing? Evidence from Household Water Demand" provides similar empirical evidence in residential water markets. In this paper, I exploit variation in residential water pricing in Southern California to examine how consumers respond to nonlinear pricing. Contrary to the standard predictions for nonlinear budget sets, I find no bunching of consumers around the kink points of their nonlinear price schedule. I then explore whether consumers respond to marginal price, expected marginal price, or average price when faced with nonlinear water price schedules. The price schedule of one service area was changed from a linear price schedule to a nonlinear price schedule. This policy change lead to an increase in marginal price and expected marginal price but a decrease in average price for many consumers. Using household-level panel data, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. Estimates of the short-run price elasticity for the summer and winter months are -.127 and -.097, and estimates of the long-run price elasticity for the summer and winter months are -.203 and -.154. I conclude with "The Effect of Cash Rewards on Energy Conservation: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design" to examine the effect of an alternative form of nonlinear pricing that was developed to provide an explicit financial incentive for conservation. In the summer of 2005, California residents received a 20% discount on their summer electricity bills if they could reduce their electricity consumption by 20% relative to 2004. Nearly all households automatically participated in the program, but the eligibility rule required households to have started their electricity service by a certain cutoff date in 2004. This rule generated an essentially random assignment of the program among households that started their service right before and after the cutoff date. Using household-level monthly billing records

  8. Is the demand for alcoholic beverages in developing countries sensitive to price? Evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Guoqiang; Liu, Feng

    2011-06-01

    Economic literature in developed countries suggests that demand for alcoholic beverages is sensitive to price, with an estimated price elasticity ranging from -0.38 for beer and -0.7 for liquor. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries. We employ a large individual-level dataset in China to estimate the effects of price on alcohol demand. Using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey for the years 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006, we estimate two-part models of alcohol demand. Results show the price elasticity is virtually zero for beer and only -0.12 for liquor, which is far smaller than those derived from developed countries. Separate regressions by gender reveals the results are mainly driven by men. The central implication of this study is, while alcohol tax increases can raise government revenue, it alone is not an effective policy to reduce alcohol related problems in China.

  9. Is the Demand for Alcoholic Beverages in Developing Countries Sensitive to Price? Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Guoqiang; Liu, Feng

    2011-01-01

    Economic literature in developed countries suggests that demand for alcoholic beverages is sensitive to price, with an estimated price elasticity ranging from −0.38 for beer and −0.7 for liquor. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries. We employ a large individual-level dataset in China to estimate the effects of price on alcohol demand. Using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey for the years 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006, we estimate two-part models of alcohol demand. Results show the price elasticity is virtually zero for beer and only −0.12 for liquor, which is far smaller than those derived from developed countries. Separate regressions by gender reveals the results are mainly driven by men. The central implication of this study is, while alcohol tax increases can raise government revenue, it alone is not an effective policy to reduce alcohol related problems in China. PMID:21776220

  10. Is the Demand for Alcoholic Beverages in Developing Countries Sensitive to Price? Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Economic literature in developed countries suggests that demand for alcoholic beverages is sensitive to price, with an estimated price elasticity ranging from −0.38 for beer and −0.7 for liquor. However, few studies have been conducted in developing countries. We employ a large individual-level dataset in China to estimate the effects of price on alcohol demand. Using the data from China Health and Nutrition Survey for the years 1993, 1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006, we estimate two-part models of alcohol demand. Results show the price elasticity is virtually zero for beer and only −0.12 for liquor, which is far smaller than those derived from developed countries. Separate regressions by gender reveals the results are mainly driven by men. The central implication of this study is, while alcohol tax increases can raise government revenue, it alone is not an effective policy to reduce alcohol related problems in China.

  11. The Morishima Gross elasticity of substitution

    OpenAIRE

    Blackorby, Charles; Primont, Daniel; Russell, R. Robert

    2007-01-01

    We show that the Hotelling-Lau elasticity of substitution, an extension of the Allen-Uzawa elasticity to allow for optimal output-quantity (or utility) responses to changes in factor prices, inherits all of the failings of the Allen-Uzawa elasticity identified by Blackorby and Russell [1989 AER]. An analogous extension of the Morishima elasticity of substitution to allow for output quantity changes preserves the salient properties of the original Hicksian notion of elasticity of substitution.

  12. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  13. Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

    OpenAIRE

    Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

    1994-01-01

    We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

  14. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Makurat

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Methods: Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC, iron, vitamin A (VitA, folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12. Results: On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA. The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA, VitA (66% RDA, and folate (44% RDA, but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA and iron (20% RDA. Conclusions: Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  15. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  16. Estimating shadow prices and efficiency analysis of productive inputs and pesticide use of vegetable production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Singbo, Alphonse G.; Lansink, Alfons Oude; Emvalomatis, Grigorios

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes technical efficiency and the value of the marginal product of productive inputs vis-a-vis pesticide use to measure allocative efficiency of pesticide use along productive inputs. We employ the data envelopment analysis framework and marginal cost techniques to estimate

  17. Estimating the Quadratic Variation Spectrum of Noisy Asset Prices Using Generalized Flat-top Realized Kernels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varneskov, Rasmus T.

    2014-01-01

    -top estimators are shown to be consistent, asymptotically unbiased, and mixed Gaussian at the optimal rate of convergence, n1/4. Exact bound on lower order terms are obtained using maximal inequalities and these are used to derive a conservative, MSE-optimal flat-top shrinkage. Additionally, bounds...

  18. Estimating Water Demand in Urban Indonesia: A Maximum Likelihood Approach to block Rate Pricing Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan; Zwart, Bert

    1997-01-01

    In this paper the Burtless and Hausman model is used to estimate water demand in Salatiga, Indonesia. Other statistical models, as OLS and IV, are found to be inappropiate. A topic, which does not seem to appear in previous studies, is the fact that the density function of the loglikelihood can be

  19. A cross-country non parametric estimation of the returns to factors of production and the elasticity of scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalmir Marquetti

    2009-06-01

    and 1995. The results support the hypotheses of constant returns to scale to factors and decreasing returns to accumulable factors. The low capital-labor ratio countries have important differences in factor elasticities in relation to other countries. The augmentation of the production function by human capital did not reduce the elasticity of physical capital as suggested by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992. Moreover, it is investigated if thefactors shares are really equal to their output elasticity. The wage share raises with the capital labor ratio and the sum of the output elasticity of labor and human capital is below the wage share for high capital labor ratio countries, happening the inverse for low capital labor ratio countries. It indicates the presence of externalities, or imperfect competition or that the marginal theory of distribution is inaccurate.

  20. Short- and long-run elasticities of electricity demand in the Korean service sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Kyoung-Min; Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2014-01-01

    This paper attempts to examine the electricity demand function in the Korean service sector using the annual data covering the period 1970–2011. The short- and long-run elasticities of electricity demand with respect to price and income are empirically estimated using a co-integration and error-correction model. The short- and long-run price elasticities are estimated to be −0.421 and −1.002, respectively. The short- and long-run income elasticities are computed to be 0.855 and 1.090, respectively. Electricity demand in the service sector is inelastic to changes in both price and income in the short-run, but elastic in the long-run. Therefore, it appears that a pricing policy is more effective than the direct regulation of reducing electricity demand in the long-run in order to stabilize the electricity demand in the service sector. Moreover, it is necessary to encourage a more efficient use of electricity to cope with increasing demand for electricity following economic growth because the electricity demand in the service sector is income-elastic in the long-run. - Highlights: • We examine the electricity demand function in the Korean service sector. • We use the annual data covering the period 1970–2011. • The demand function is estimated using a co-integration and error-correction model. • The short- and long-run price elasticities are −0.421 and −1.002, respectively. • The short- and long-run income elasticities are 0.855 and 1.090, respectively

  1. Computable error estimates of a finite difference scheme for option pricing in exponential Lévy models

    KAUST Repository

    Kiessling, Jonas

    2014-05-06

    Option prices in exponential Lévy models solve certain partial integro-differential equations. This work focuses on developing novel, computable error approximations for a finite difference scheme that is suitable for solving such PIDEs. The scheme was introduced in (Cont and Voltchkova, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 43(4):1596-1626, 2005). The main results of this work are new estimates of the dominating error terms, namely the time and space discretisation errors. In addition, the leading order terms of the error estimates are determined in a form that is more amenable to computations. The payoff is only assumed to satisfy an exponential growth condition, it is not assumed to be Lipschitz continuous as in previous works. If the underlying Lévy process has infinite jump activity, then the jumps smaller than some (Formula presented.) are approximated by diffusion. The resulting diffusion approximation error is also estimated, with leading order term in computable form, as well as the dependence of the time and space discretisation errors on this approximation. Consequently, it is possible to determine how to jointly choose the space and time grid sizes and the cut off parameter (Formula presented.). © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

  2. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...

  3. A comparison of cost-based pricing rules for natural gas distribution utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, C.C.

    1993-01-01

    Partial-equilibrium social welfare deadweight losses under uniform Ramsey pricing, a cost allocation pricing method, and the actual average revenues by customer class for two natural gas distribution utilities are calculated and compared. Marginal cost estimates are derived from a multiple-output translog variable cost function and used, along with three sets of demand elasticities, to generate the Ramsey prices and welfare losses. The actual and cost-allocation prices are taken directly from rate case files. The largest social welfare losses are associated with the cost-allocation rule, as high as 10-25% of revenue, despite suggestions in the literature to the contrary. (Author)

  4. Retail Price Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

  5. Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh

    1988-01-01

    A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...

  6. Price, tax and tobacco product substitution in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoklosa, Michal; Goma, Fastone; Nargis, Nigar; Drope, Jeffrey; Chelwa, Grieve; Chisha, Zunda; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-03-24

    In Zambia, the number of cigarette users is growing, and the lack of strong tax policies is likely an important cause. When adjusted for inflation, levels of tobacco tax have not changed since 2007. Moreover, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, a less-costly alternative to factory-made (FM) cigarettes, is highly prevalent. We modelled the probability of FM and RYO cigarette smoking using individual-level data obtained from the 2012 and 2014 waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Zambia Survey. We used two estimation methods: the standard estimation method involving separate random effects probit models and a method involving a system of equations (incorporating bivariate seemingly unrelated random effects probit) to estimate price elasticities of FM and RYO cigarettes and their cross-price elasticities. The estimated price elasticities of smoking prevalence are -0.20 and -0.03 for FM and RYO cigarettes, respectively. FM and RYO are substitutes; that is, when the price of one of the products goes up, some smokers switch to the other product. The effects are stronger for substitution from FM to RYO than vice versa. This study affirms that increasing cigarette tax with corresponding price increases could significantly reduce cigarette use in Zambia. Furthermore, reducing between-product price differences would reduce substitution from FM to RYO. Since RYO use is associated with lower socioeconomic status, efforts to decrease RYO use, including through tax/price approaches and cessation assistance, would decrease health inequalities in Zambian society and reduce the negative economic consequences of tobacco use experienced by the poor. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaihede, Michael; Liao Donghua; Gregersen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are related to these, but studies are few and mostly not comparable. The elastic properties of membranes can be described by the areal modulus, and these may also be susceptible to age-related changes reflected by changes in the areal modulus. The areal modulus is determined by the relationship between membrane tension and change of the surface area relative to the undeformed surface area. A middle ear model determined the tension-strain relationship in vivo based on data from experimental pressure-volume deformations of the human tympanic membrane system. The areal modulus was determined in both a younger (n = 10) and an older (n = 10) group of normal subjects. The areal modulus for lateral and medial displacement of the tympanic membrane system was smaller in the older group (mean = 0.686 and 0.828 kN m -1 , respectively) compared to the younger group (mean = 1.066 and 1.206 kN m -1 , respectively), though not significantly (2p = 0.10 and 0.11, respectively). Based on the model the areal modulus was established describing the summated elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system. Future model improvements include exact determination of the tympanic membrane area accounting for its shape via 3D finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus

  8. In vivo areal modulus of elasticity estimation of the human tympanic membrane system: modelling of middle ear mechanical function in normal young and aged ears

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaihede, Michael [Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark); Liao Donghua [Centre of Excellence in Visceral Biomechanics and Pain, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark); Gregersen, Hans [Centre of Excellence in Visceral Biomechanics and Pain, Aalborg Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aalborg (Denmark)

    2007-02-07

    The quasi-static elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system can be described by the areal modulus of elasticity determined by a middle ear model. The response of the tympanic membrane to quasi-static pressure changes is determined by its elastic properties. Several clinical problems are related to these, but studies are few and mostly not comparable. The elastic properties of membranes can be described by the areal modulus, and these may also be susceptible to age-related changes reflected by changes in the areal modulus. The areal modulus is determined by the relationship between membrane tension and change of the surface area relative to the undeformed surface area. A middle ear model determined the tension-strain relationship in vivo based on data from experimental pressure-volume deformations of the human tympanic membrane system. The areal modulus was determined in both a younger (n = 10) and an older (n = 10) group of normal subjects. The areal modulus for lateral and medial displacement of the tympanic membrane system was smaller in the older group (mean = 0.686 and 0.828 kN m{sup -1}, respectively) compared to the younger group (mean = 1.066 and 1.206 kN m{sup -1}, respectively), though not significantly (2p = 0.10 and 0.11, respectively). Based on the model the areal modulus was established describing the summated elastic properties of the tympanic membrane system. Future model improvements include exact determination of the tympanic membrane area accounting for its shape via 3D finite element analyses. In vivo estimates of Young's modulus in this study were a factor 2-3 smaller than previously found in vitro. No significant age-related differences were found in the elastic properties as expressed by the areal modulus.

  9. Estimating the effects of Technology and Depletion on the Real Price of Copper in the U. S. Using a Cointegration Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunuel, M.

    2001-07-01

    The effects of technology and depletion on U. S. copper scarcity- as measured by real price can be estimated explicitly using econometrics, rather than assuming the their combined effect is implicit in a quadratic trend. The two most relevant cost-decreasing technologies-black-caving and open-pit mining and leaching and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW)-are proxied by their rate of diffusion. Depletion is proxied by average yield. Since these proxies and real price contain a unit root. Johansen's maximum-likelihood estimation procedure is used to test for the number of cointegrating relations, and estimate a vector autoregressive model from which a price equation in error-correction form is derived. A unique cointegrating relation without a trend is found, which supports the hypothesis that the real price of copper has no scarcity-rent component if we believe that this components should be modeled as a trend. The cointegrating relation loads into the price equation, and the convergence towards the long-run equilibrium is almost instantaneous. The estimated combined effect of physical depletion and technology on the U. S. real price of copper shows that the diffusion of block-caving and open-pit mining technologies off set the effect on price of the decline in average yield until the end of the thirties. From 1938 to 1976, the combined effect was slightly positive, and markedly and continuously negative thereafter, as a result of the introduction of leaching and SX-EW technologies, and the stabilization and even increase of average yield. (Author)

  10. Is the Armington Elasticity Really Constant across Importers?

    OpenAIRE

    Yilmazkuday, Hakan

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows that the Armington elasticity, which refers to both the elasticity of substitution across goods and the price elasticity of demand under the assumption of a large number of varieties, systematically changes from one importer country to another in an international trade context. Then a natural question to ask is "What determines the Armington elasticity?" The answer comes from the distinction between the elasticity of demand with respect to the destination price (i.e., the Arm...

  11. Price Sensitivity of Demand for Prescription Drugs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne; Skipper, Lars; Skipper, Niels

    2016-01-01

    We investigate price sensitivity of demand for prescription drugs, using drug purchase records for the entire Danish population. We identify price responsiveness by exploiting variation in prices caused by kinked reimbursement schemes and implement a regression kink design. The results suggest some...... price responsiveness with corresponding price elasticities ranging from −0.2 to −0.7. Individuals with chronic disease and especially individuals above the age of 65 respond less to the price of drugs....

  12. The impact of price and tobacco control policies on the demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Tauras, John; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2014-07-01

    While much is known about the demand for conventional cigarettes, little is known about the determinants of demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes). The goal of this study is to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and to examine the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free policies on e-cigarette sales. Quarterly e-cigarette prices and sales and conventional cigarette prices from 2009 to 2012 were constructed from commercial retail store scanner data from 52 U.S. markets, for food, drug and mass stores, and from 25 markets, for convenience stores. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and associations between e-cigarette sales and cigarette prices and smoke-free policies. Estimated own price elasticities for disposable e-cigarettes centred around -1.2, while those for reusable e-cigarettes were approximately -1.9. Disposable e-cigarette sales were higher in markets where reusable e-cigarette prices were higher and where less of the population was covered by a comprehensive smoke-free policy. There were no consistent and statistically significant relationships between cigarette prices and e-cigarette sales. E-cigarette sales are very responsive to own price changes. Disposable e-cigarettes appear to be substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. Policies increasing e-cigarette retail prices, such as limiting rebates, discounts and coupons and imposing a tax on e-cigarettes, could potentially lead to significant reductions in e-cigarette sales. Differential tax policies based on product type could lead to substitution between different types of e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. The impact of price and tobacco control policies on the demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Tauras, John; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2014-01-01

    Background While much is known about the demand for conventional cigarettes, little is known about the determinants of demand for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes). The goal of this study is to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and to examine the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free policies on e-cigarette sales. Methods Quarterly e-cigarette prices and sales and conventional cigarette prices from 2009 to 2012 were constructed from commercial retail store scanner data from 52 US markets, for food, drug and mass stores, and from 25 markets, for convenience stores. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and associations between e-cigarette sales and cigarette prices and smoke-free policies. Results Estimated own price elasticities for disposable e-cigarettes centred around −1.2, while those for reusable e-cigarettes were approximately −1.9. Disposable e-cigarette sales were higher in markets where reusable e-cigarette prices were higher and where less of the population was covered by a comprehensive smoke-free policy. There were no consistent and statistically significant relationships between cigarette prices and e-cigarette sales. Conclusions E-cigarette sales are very responsive to own price changes. Disposable e-cigarettes appear to be substitutes for reusable e-cigarettes. Policies increasing e-cigarette retail prices, such as limiting rebates, discounts and coupons and imposing a tax on e-cigarettes, could potentially lead to significant reductions in e-cigarette sales. Differential tax policies based on product type could lead to substitution between different types of e-cigarettes. PMID:24935898

  14. Analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina: the impact of price changes on consumption and government revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    German Rodríguez-Iglesias

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To estimate cigarette demand and to simulate a tax policy targeted to reduce tobacco consumption. Materials and methods. Demand was estimated using a vector error correction model. Simulation exercises present the impact of a tax increase on consumption and revenues. Results. Changes in real income and the real price of cigarettes affect the demand for cigarettes in Argentina. The long term price elasticity is 0.279 (a 10% increase in real prices reduces cigarette consumption by 2.79% per quarter and the long term income elasticity is 0.411 (a 10% increase in real income raises consumption by 4.11% per quarter. Even in a conservative scenario, imulations show that increasing the price of cigarettes by 100% using excise taxes would maximize revenues and reduce cigarette consumption. Conclusion. There is sufficient room to increase taxes, reducing cigarette consumption, while still increasing tax revenues.

  15. Estimation of area and income elasticities of water demand in a number of cities and towns in Gauteng

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    M.Ing. Water demand prediction can be useful for future planning and has a significant economic effect on a city, town or suburb. There are numerous factors influencing water demand and therefore influencing the prediction thereof. The effect of each of these factors on the water demand is called the elasticity of that factor. The main aim of this study is to determine area and income elasticities of demand. This will enable the reader to predict water demand by taking stand size (area) an...

  16. Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagnai, Alberto; Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short- and long-run elasticities, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the pricing behaviour. The estimation results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the long-run elasticities, with significant differences between the crude price and the exchange rate, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the relation between the retail price of gasoline and crude oil price. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices and exchange rate into gasoline prices is examined. •We use an extended NARDL model to test for asymmetric reactions and hysteresis. • Asymmetric pricing behaviour features only in the long run. • The sign of the asymmetry differs between exchange rate and crude price changes. • The results are robust to the inclusion of several variables usually related to asymmetry

  17. Are lower income smokers more price sensitive?: the evidence from Korean cigarette tax increases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Seng Eun

    2016-03-01

    The cigarette excise taxes and the price of a typical pack of cigarettes in Korea have not increased since 2005, and effective tax rate as a fraction of price and real price of cigarettes have both been falling. As smoking prevalence is higher among lower income people than among higher income people in Korea, the regressivity of cigarette excise taxes is often cited as a barrier to tobacco tax and price policy. While studies in several other high-income countries have shown that higher income individuals are less price sensitive, few studies have examined the differential impact of cigarette tax increases by income group in Korea. Most of the Korean literature has estimated the demand for cigarettes using time-series aggregate sales data or household level survey data, which record household cigarette expenditures rather than individual cigarette consumption. Studies using survey data often lack time-series variation and estimate cigarette demand using household expenditure data, while studies using time-series aggregate sales data lack cross-sectional variation. I examine differences in the effects of cigarette price on the cigarette consumption of various income groups using individual-level cigarette consumption records from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KHNNES). I also analyse the implications of cigarette taxes and price increases on the relative tax burdens of different income groups. I use pooled data from the KNHNES for the 1998-2011 period to estimate the price elasticity of cigarette consumption of four income groups. Treating cigarette consumption as a latent variable, I employ an econometric procedure that corrects for non-random sample selection, or the fact that some non-smokers might have smoked at a low enough price, and estimate the price elasticity of cigarette consumption by income group. The estimated price elasticities include the responsiveness of potential smokers as well as current smokers. Lower income Korean

  18. 2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12). Price Estimates for Attending Postsecondary Education Institutions. First Look. NCES 2014-166

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simone, Sean; Radwin, David; Wine, Jennifer; Siegel, Peter; Bryan, Michael

    2013-01-01

    This First Look publication provides price estimates for attending postsecondary education institutions using data from the 2011-12 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:12), the most comprehensive, nationally representative survey of student financing of postsecondary education in the United States. The survey includes about 95,000…

  19. On the Reliability of Optimization Results for Trigeneration Systems in Buildings, in the Presence of Price Uncertainties and Erroneous Load Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Piacentino

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cogeneration and trigeneration plants are widely recognized as promising technologies for increasing energy efficiency in buildings. However, their overall potential is scarcely exploited, due to the difficulties in achieving economic viability and the risk of investment related to uncertainties in future energy loads and prices. Several stochastic optimization models have been proposed in the literature to account for uncertainties, but these instruments share in a common reliance on user-defined probability functions for each stochastic parameter. Being such functions hard to predict, in this paper an analysis of the influence of erroneous estimation of the uncertain energy loads and prices on the optimal plant design and operation is proposed. With reference to a hotel building, a number of realistic scenarios is developed, exploring all the most frequent errors occurring in the estimation of energy loads and prices. Then, profit-oriented optimizations are performed for the examined scenarios, by means of a deterministic mixed integer linear programming algorithm. From a comparison between the achieved results, it emerges that: (i the plant profitability is prevalently influenced by the average “spark-spread” (i.e., ratio between electricity and fuel price and, secondarily, from the shape of the daily price profiles; (ii the “optimal sizes” of the main components are scarcely influenced by the daily load profiles, while they are more strictly related with the average “power to heat” and “power to cooling” ratios of the building.

  20. Beer Snobs Do Exist: Estimation of Beer Demand by Type

    OpenAIRE

    Toro-Gonzalez, Daniel; McCluskey, Jill J.; Mittelhammer, Ron

    2014-01-01

    Although mass-produced beers still represent the vast majority of U.S. beer sales, there has been a significant growth trend in the craft beer segment. This study analyzes the demand for beer as a differentiated product and estimates own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities for beer by type: craft beer, mass-produced beer, and imported beer. We verify that beer is a normal good with a considerably inelastic demand and also find that the cross-price elasticity across types of beer is cl...

  1. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

    2008-01-01

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  2. A joint estimation of price-cost margins and sunk capital. Theory and evidence from the European electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roeger, W.; Warzynski, F.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new methodology to jointly estimate market power and the importance of sunk capital extending the work of Hall (1988) and Roeger (1995). Wc then apply this new technique to the European electricity industry using firm level data for the period 1994-1999, and analyze the impact of the 1996 European directive to liberalize electricity markets. We find that the average price cost margin has declined from 0.29 in 1994 to 0.22 in 1999. Moreover, the magnitude of the decline is linked to firm size: the largest firms have experienced a larger percentage fall. The variable cost parameter has increased from 0.36 in 1994 to 0.56 in 1999. The main reason of the change is the switch of the relationship between real labor productivity and the share of variable capital. Our results therefore document a more competitive electricity market and a more flexible and more efficient use of capital. (au)

  3. Price elastic power consumption as reserve power - a demonstration in the horticultural sector. Final report; Priselastisk elforbrug som reservekraft - et demonstrationsprojekt i gartneribranchen. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    Danish greenhouses have a relatively high level of electricity consumption for plant growth lighting. Part of the electricity consumption is flexible, and the main purpose of the project was to find out if the plant growth lighting of the greenhouses is fit for the market for reserve power. The greenhouses' total potential for delivery of upgrading services was up to 80 MW for a short period in spring 2007. Four greenhouses participated in practise on the regulating power market with a flexible consumption. The upscaling of the demonstration was not carried through because e.g. the price development on the regulating power market reduced the gain considerably, and the investments for installation of on-line metering at the greenhouses did not measure up with the earnings. (Author)

  4. Product pricing in TAC SCM using adaptive real-time probability of acceptance estimations based on economic regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hogenboom, A.C.; Ketter, W.; Dalen, van Jan; Kaymak, U.; Collins, J.; Gupta, Alok

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic product pricing is a vital, yet non-trivial task in complex supply chains -- especially in case of limited visibility of the market environment. We propose to differentiate product pricing strategies using economic regimes. In our approach, we use economic regimes (characterizing market

  5. Estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship. The case of city-gate and residential natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arano, Kathleen; Velikova, Marieta

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines market cointegration of city-gate and residential natural gas prices. Cointegration of gas prices across different segments of the industry provides evidence that deregulation has resulted into a more integrated, competitive natural gas industry where gas prices converge into a long-run equilibrium. Our results indicate prices further down the distribution line, the final two points of consumption, are cointegrated for a majority of the US states post open access and retail unbundling, although we find little evidence of perfect market integration. The two price series likewise converge to the long-run equilibrium faster post open access and retail unbundling. Results relative to state level unbundling (choice programs) reveal mixed outcomes with a few states without retail unbundling exhibiting market integration while some states with full unbundling exhibiting non-cointegration. (author)

  6. Technology for Price Management in Industrial Differential Product Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Orlova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article studies price behavior of oligopolies in industrial market where price competition is replaced by non-price competition. There is a developed technology for pricing management of the products of industrial enterprises, which, unlike the existing ones, takes into account the dynamics of changes in consumer preferences and changes in the pricing policy of the enterprise competitor and is based on usage of system dynamics models to simulate the financial and economic performance of enterprises and the fuzzy model for situational analysis and decisionmaking on changes in prices for the products. A pricing simulation model is offered. It is based on system-dynamic modeling method, which takes into account the complex cause-to-effect concatenation of factors on price such as product quality, cost, price competition, price elasticity of economic demand, competitors’ quantity of output and estimates the impact of changing factors of internal and external enterprise environment on the effectiveness of its activities.The simulation model allows us to conduct diverse experiments and analyze the impact of management decisions on the efficiency of the enterprise. Based on the fuzzy approach a price decision-making model is developed. It operates not only precise (numeric values, but also qualitative assessments of variables and provides an adequate use of logical relationships and the laws of the mutual influence of market and production and economic factors. Qualitative dependences, which establish the influence of external and internal factors on the price change, are identified as a result of the study of economic laws and legal conformity that are in the context of rapid economic change and market turbulence may not be strictly formalized and take the form of linguistic statements, which express the conditional relationship between the qualitative assessments of initial factors and changes in the relative price.

  7. A Rational Approach to Estimating the Surgical Demand Elasticity Needed to Guide Manpower Reallocation during Contagious Outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsao, Hsiao-Mei; Sun, Ying-Chou; Liou, Der-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Background Emerging infectious diseases continue to pose serious threats to global public health. So far, however, few published study has addressed the need for manpower reallocation needed in hospitals when such a serious contagious outbreak occurs. Aim To quantify the demand elasticity of the major surgery types in order to guide future manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks. Materials and Methods Based on a nationwide research database in Taiwan, we extracted the monthly volume...

  8. A simple model to estimate plantarflexor muscle-tendon mechanics and energetics during walking with elastic ankle exoskeletons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicki, Gregory S.; Khan, Nabil S.

    2016-01-01

    Goal A recent experiment demonstrated that when humans wear unpowered elastic ankle exoskeletons with intermediate spring stiffness they can reduce their metabolic energy cost to walk by ~7%. Springs that are too compliant or too stiff have little benefit. The purpose of this study was to use modeling and simulation to explore the muscle-level mechanisms for the ‘sweet-spot’ in stiffness during exoskeleton assisted walking. Methods We developed a simple lumped, uniarticular musculoskeletal model of the plantarflexors operating in parallel with an elastic ‘exo-tendon’. Using an inverse approach with constrained kinematics and kinetics, we rapidly simulated human walking over a range of exoskeleton stiffness values and examined the underlying neuromechanics and energetics of the biological plantarflexors. Results Stiffer ankle exoskeleton springs resulted in larger decreases in plantarflexor muscle forces, activations and metabolic energy consumption. However, in the process of unloading the compliant biological muscle-tendon unit (MTU), the muscle fascicles (CE) experienced larger excursions that negatively impacted series elastic element (SEE) recoil that is characteristic of a tuned ‘catapult mechanism’. Conclusion The combination of disrupted muscle-tendon dynamics and the need to produce compensatory forces/moments to maintain overall net ankle moment invariance could explain the ‘sweet spot’ in metabolic performance at intermediate ankle exoskeleton stiffness. Future work will aim to provide experimental evidence to support the model predictions presented here using ultrasound imaging of muscle-level dynamics during walking with elastic ankle exoskeletons. Significance Engineers must account for the muscle-level effects of exoskeleton designs in order to achieve maximal performance objectives. PMID:26485350

  9. Measurements of P- and S wave velocities in a rock massif and its use in estimating elastic moduli

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Živor, Roman; Vilhelm, J.; Rudajev, Vladimír; Lokajíček, Tomáš

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2011), s. 157-167 ISSN 1214-9705 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300130906 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516 Keywords : seismic source * seismic waves velocity * elastic constants * geophone * piezo -electric transducer Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.530, year: 2011 http://www.irsm.cas.cz/abstracts/AGG/02_11/6_Zivor.pdf

  10. The Effect of Price and Socio-Economic Level on the Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages (SSB): The Case of Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paraje, Guillermo

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this article is to estimate the own-price, cross-price and income elasticities of demand for SSB in Ecuador, as an indispensable step for predicting a reduction in the consumption of said beverages caused by the potential implementation of taxes in Ecuador. In addition, the own-price, cross-price and income elasticities of sugar-free substitutes like mineral water and diet soft drinks and juices are also estimated. The data from the 2011-2012 ENIGHUR, which contains detailed information on household consumption and socioeconomic variables, was used. The estimates are done using Deaton's Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) which accounts for differences in the quality of goods purchased. This demand system is estimated for different socio-economic groups, according to total household expenditure. The results reveal own-price elasticities for SSB between -1.17 and -1.33 depending on the socio-economic group, in line with the existing evidence for developed countries. Own-price elasticity for non-SSB is between -1 and -1.24. Income elasticities reveal that both SSB and non-SSB are normal goods with elasticities decreasing for higher socio-economic groups. These results show that the consumption of SSB is sensitive to price changes, meaning that the implementation of taxes on said beverages could be effective in reducing their consumption. The fact that non-SSB are also sensitive to price changes would indicate that subsidies could be implemented for the production of some of them.

  11. The Limits of Water Pricing in a Developing Country Metropolis: Empirical Lessons from an Industrial City of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabbir Ahmad

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to question the effectiveness of water pricing as a means of consumer behavioural change in urban centres of the Global South by analysing the domestic usage for water in a major industrial city of Pakistan. Using survey data of 1100 households from Faisalabad city, we estimate the price and income elasticities of water demand. Instrumental variable methods are applied to overcome the endogeneity issues of water pricing. The findings reflect that price and income elasticities vary across different groups. Price elasticities range from −0.43 to −0.71, and income elasticities vary between 0.01 and 0.12. These findings suggest that pricing policies may have limited scope to drive households’ water consumption patterns. However, these empirics may suggest that policy makers should design an appropriate tariff structure to increase revenues that can be invested to further improve the existing water infrastructure. The study findings also suggest that non-pricing instruments, such as water saving campaigns, may be helpful in driving an efficient use of water in rapidly growing cities in the developing world.

  12. Analysis of thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in China from the perspective of market forces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Herui; Wei, Pengbang

    2017-01-01

    The price of thermal coal has always been the focus of the debate between coal mining industry and electric power industry. The thermal coal price is always lower than other same quality coal, and this phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion has been existing in China for a long time. The distortion coal price can not reflect the external cost and the resource scarcity of coal, which could result in environment deteriorating and inefficient resource allocation. This paper studied the phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion through economic theoretical modeling and empirical cointegration analysis from the perspective of market forces. The results show that thermal coal price is determined by electricity price, the prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise, price elasticity of demand of electricity, the input prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise and the price elasticity of supply of thermal coal. The main reason of coal price distortion is the unbalance market force of coal industry and thermal coal generation industry. The distortion rate of coal price is positively related to the market force of electric power industry and negatively related to the industrial concentration of coal industry. - Highlights: • This paper studied thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in China. • The main reason of coal price distortion is the unbalance market force. • Thermal coal price is also influenced by electricity price and price elasticity of demand of electricity. • The distortion rate of coal price is negatively related to the industrial concentration of coal industry.

  13. Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Michael D. Noel

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

  14. When do price thresholds matter in retail categories?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.H. Pauwels (Koen); S. Srinivasan (Shuba); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractMarketing literature has long recognized that brand price elasticity need not be monotonic and symmetric, but has yet to provide generalizable market-level insights on threshold-based price elasticity, asymmetric thresholds, and the sign and magnitude of elasticity transitions. This

  15. Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Bingbing Dong

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...

  16. A State-Space Estimation of the Lee-Carter Mortality Model and Implications for Annuity Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Man Chung Fung; Gareth W. Peters; Pavel V. Shevchenko

    2015-01-01

    In this article we investigate a state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model which is a benchmark stochastic mortality model for forecasting age-specific death rates. Existing relevant literature focuses mainly on mortality forecasting or pricing of longevity derivatives, while the full implications and methods of using the state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model in pricing retirement income products is yet to be examined. The main contribution of this article is twofold. Fi...

  17. The effect of methamphetamine and heroin price on polydrug use: A behavioural economics analysis in Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, Jenny; Bradford, Deborah; Jones, Craig

    2010-09-01

    A key aim of supply-side drug law enforcement is to reduce drug use by increasing the retail price of drugs. Since most illicit drug users are polydrug users the effectiveness of this strategy depends on the extent to which drug users reduce their overall consumption of drugs. The literature shows that drug users do reduce their consumption of a drug when its price increases. However the extent of that decrease and the implications for the use of other drugs vary across studies. A sample of 101 Australian methamphetamine users was surveyed using a behavioural economics approach. Participants were given a hypothetical fixed drug budget, presented with a range of drug price lists and asked how many units of each drug they would purchase. Methamphetamine and heroin prices were varied independently across trials. While demand for both methamphetamine and heroin was found to be price elastic, elasticity estimates were influenced by the nature of participants' drug dependence. The group least responsive to changes in methamphetamine price were those dependent only on methamphetamine, while the group most responsive were dependent only on heroin. Similar findings emerged in relation to changes in heroin price. Cross-price elasticity analysis showed limited substitution into other drugs as the price of methamphetamine increased. In contrast, for heroin, there was significant substitution into pharmaceutical opioids and to a lesser extent, benzodiazepines and methamphetamine. However, for the most part, the decreases in methamphetamine or heroin consumption outweighed any substitution into other drugs. The reduction in overall drug consumption and expenditure in response to price increases in heroin and methamphetamine observed in this sample lend support to supply-side enforcement strategies that aim to increase retail drug price. Notably, this analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the nature of users' drug dependence in estimating price responsiveness

  18. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  19. Differential responsiveness to cigarette price by education and income among adult urban Chinese smokers: findings from the ITC China Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jidong; Zheng, Rong; Chaloupka, Frank J; Fong, Geoffrey T; Jiang, Yuan

    2015-07-01

    Few studies have examined the impact of tobacco tax and price policies in China. In addition, very little is known about the differential responses to tax and price increases based on socioeconomic status in China. To estimate the conditional cigarette consumption price elasticity among adult urban smokers in China and to examine the differential responses to cigarette price increases among groups with different income and/or educational levels. Multivariate analyses employing the general estimating equations method were conducted using the first three waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey. Analyses based on subsample by education and income were conducted. Conditional cigarette demand price elasticity ranges from -0.12 to -0.14. No differential responses to cigarette price increase were found across education levels. The price elasticity estimates do not differ between high-income smokers and medium-income smokers. Cigarette consumption among low-income smokers did not decrease after a price increase, at least among those who continued to smoke. Relative to other low-income and middle-income countries, cigarette consumption among Chinese adult smokers is not very sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. The total impact of cigarette price increase would be larger if its impact on smoking initiation and cessation, as well as the price-reducing behaviours such as brand switching and trading down, were taken into account. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Drug Pricing Reforms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Reference price systems for prescription drugs have found widespread use as cost containment tools. Under such regulatory regimes, patients co-pay a fraction of the difference between pharmacy retail price of the drug and a reference price. Reference prices are either externally (based on drug...... prices in other countries) or internally (based on domestic drug prices) determined. In a recent study, we analysed the effects of a change from external to internal reference pricing in Denmark in 2005, finding that the reform led to substantial reductions in prices, producer revenues, and expenditures...... for patients and the health insurance system. We also estimated an increase in consumer welfare but the size effect depends on whether or not perceived quality differences between branded and other drugs are taken into account....

  1. Differential Responses to Food Price Changes by Personal Characteristic: A Systematic Review of Experimental Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizdrak, Anja; Scarborough, Peter; Waterlander, Wilma E; Rayner, Mike

    2015-01-01

    Fiscal interventions to improve population diet have been recommended for consideration by many organisations including the World Health Organisation and the United Nations and policies such as sugar-sweetened beverage taxes have been implemented at national and sub-national levels. However, concerns have been raised with respect to the differential impact of fiscal interventions on population sub-groups and this remains a barrier to implementation. To examine how personal characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, sex, impulsivity, and income) moderate changes in purchases of targeted foods in response to food and beverage price changes in experimental settings. Systematic review. Online databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, EconLit and PsycInfo), reference lists of previous reviews, and additional data from study authors. We included randomised controlled trials where food and beverage prices were manipulated and reported differential effects of the intervention on participant sub-groups defined according to personal characteristics. Where possible, we extracted data to enable the calculation of price elasticities for the target foods by personal characteristic. 8 studies were included in the review. Across studies, the difference in price elasticity varied from 0.02 to 2.43 between groups within the same study. 11 out of the total of 18 comparisons of own-price elasticity estimates by personal characteristic differed by more than 0.2 between groups. Income related factors were the most commonly considered and there was an indication that own-price elasticity estimates do vary by income but the direction of this effect was not clear. Experimental studies provide an opportunity to examine the differential effects of fiscal measures to improve population diets. Patterns in price sensitivity by personal characteristics are complex. General conclusions pertaining to the effects of personal characteristics on price sensitivity are not supported by the

  2. An agent-based approach with collaboration among agents. Estimation of wholesale electricity price on PJM and artificial data generated by a mean reverting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the performance of MAIS (Multi-Agent Intelligent Simulator) equipped with various learning capabilities. In addition to the learning capabilities, the proposed MAIS incorporates collaboration among agents. The proposed MAIS is applied to estimate a dynamic change of wholesale electricity price in PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Mainland) and an artificial data set generated by a mean reverting model. Using such different types of data sets, the methodological validity of MAIS is confirmed by comparing it with other well-known alternatives in computer science. This study finds that the MAIS needs to incorporate both the mean reverting model and the collaboration behavior among agents in order to enhance its estimation capability. The MAIS discussed in this study will provide research on energy economics with a new numerical capability that can investigate a dynamic change of not only wholesale electricity price but also speculation and learning process of traders. (author)

  3. How Are Property Investment Returns Determined? — Estimating the Micro-Structure of Asset Prices, Property Income, and Discount Rates —

    OpenAIRE

    清水, 千弘; Chihiro, Shimizu

    2014-01-01

    How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commer-cial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment re...

  4. Price regions and socio-economic efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    In a market without market power, a system in which each node (small price regions) has its own price most effective. The loss when two nodes are combined into one price region is greater the more elastic the demand and supply curve is in the two regions and the more unequal the impact on the flow across the bottleneck is

  5. Income Elasticity of Environmental Amenities

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Miles; Andrés Pereyra; Máximo Rossi

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we are concerned with the estimation of income elasticities of environmental amenities. The novelty is the application of econometric methods that take into account the problem of measurement errors when estimating these elasticities, which are common in microeconomic data and are not usually considered in the applied literature related with this issue. Our aim is to discuss whether the measurement error has signi…cant e¤ects on the elasticities. Data from the Expenditure Budget...

  6. Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeyemi, Olutomi I.; Hunt, Lester C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is ‘endogenous’ via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is ‘exogenous’. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both ‘endogenous’ technical progress and ‘exogenous’ technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962–2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 0.34 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of − 0.06 to − 1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to − 0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for

  7. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  8. Sectoral electricity elasticities in South Africa: Before and after the supply crisis of 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Blignaut

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the price elasticity of electricity for various industrial sectors of the South African economy from 2002 to 2011. The data used include sectoral electricity consumption data and electricity tariff data, both courtesy of Eskom as well as output data based on national statistics. The most important contribution this paper makes is that it includes the period after the sharp rises in electricity tariffs in 2007/2008 following a period of load-shedding and insecurity in electricity supply. Previous studies have included data only until 2007 and, for the most part, have found statistically insignificant, positive elasticities. However, for the period post-2007, we found statistically significant and negative elasticities for 9 of the 11 sectors considered. Our results show that the majority of industrial sectors have become much more sensitive to changes in the price of electricity following 2007/2008, indicating to policymakers that tariff restructuring might influence consumer behaviour significantly.

  9. An Airline-Based Multilevel Analysis of Airfare Elasticity for Passenger Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelli, Lorenzo; Ukovich, Walter; Pesenti, Raffaele

    2003-01-01

    Price elasticity of passenger demand for a specific airline is estimated. The main drivers affecting passenger demand for air transportation are identified. First, an Ordinary Least Squares regression analysis is performed. Then, a multilevel analysis-based methodology to investigate the pattern of variation of price elasticity of demand among the various routes of the airline under study is proposed. The experienced daily passenger demands on each fare-class are grouped for each considered route. 9 routes were studied for the months of February and May in years from 1999 to 2002, and two fare-classes were defined (business and economy). The analysis has revealed that the airfare elasticity of passenger demand significantly varies among the different routes of the airline.

  10. Elastic properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledbetter, H.M.

    1983-01-01

    This chapter investigates the following five aspects of engineering-material solid-state elastic constants: general properties, interrelationships, relationships to other physical properties, changes during cooling from ambient to near-zero temperature, and near-zero-temperature behavior. Topics considered include compressibility, bulk modulus, Young's modulus, shear modulus, Poisson's ratio, Hooke's law, elastic-constant measuring methods, thermodynamic potentials, higher-order energy terms, specific heat, thermal expansivity, magnetic materials, structural phase transitions, polymers, composites, textured aggregates, and other-phenomena correlations. Some of the conclusions concerning polycrystalline elastic properties and their temperature dependence are: elastic constants are physical, not mechanical, properties which relate thermodynamically to other physical properties such as specific heat and thermal expansivity; elastic constants at low temperatures are nearly temperature independent, as required by the third law of thermodynamics; and elastic constants can be used to study directional properties of materials, such as textured aggregates and composites

  11. Monte Carlo estimation of the influence of elastic scattering anisotropy on the neutron flux in a nuclear reactor cell; Monte Carlo procena uticaja anizotropije elasticnog rasejanja na vrednost neutronskog fluksa u celiji nuklearnog reaktora

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kocic, A [Institute of nuclear sciences Boris Kidric, Vinca, Beograd (Yugoslavia)

    1974-07-01

    Anisotropy of neutron elastic scattering is a problem of special importance in solving the Boltzmann transport equation numerically. This is not the case when Monte Carlo method is applied. Estimation of the influence of elastic scattering anisotropy on the neutron flux is treated in order to justify the application of Monte Carlo method which is computer time consuming. Correlation procedure was applied for the study of this influence. One group case was used as an example to enable comparison of other methods.

  12. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Alvon, E-mail: armoore@centralbank.org.bb [Economist, Central Bank of Barbados, Toms Adams Financial Centre, Bridgetown (Barbados)

    2011-06-15

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: > Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). > The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. > As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. > Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. > Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  13. Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, Alvon

    2011-01-01

    The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: → Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). → The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. → As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. → Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. → Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.

  14. The impact of rock and fluid uncertainties in the estimation of saturation and pressure from a 4D petro elastic inversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pazetti, Bruno; Davolio, Alessandra; Schiozer, Denis J

    2015-01-01

    The integration of 4D seismic (4DS) attributes and reservoir simulation is used to reduce risks in the management of petroleum fields. One possible alternative is the saturation and pressure domain. In this case, we use estimations of saturation and pressure changes from 4D seismic data as input in history matching processes to yield more reliable production predictions in simulation models. The estimation of dynamic changes from 4DS depends on the knowledge of reservoir rock and fluid properties that are uncertain in the process of estimation. This paper presents a study of the impact of rock and fluid uncertainties on the estimation of saturation and pressure changes achieved through a 4D petro-elastic inversion. The term impact means that the saturation and pressure estimation can be perturbed by the rock and fluid uncertainties. The motivation for this study comes from the necessity to estimate uncertainties in saturation and pressure variation to incorporate them in the history matching procedures, avoiding the use of deterministic values from 4DS, which may not be reliable. The study is performed using a synthetic case with known response from where it is possible to show that the errors of estimated saturation and pressure depend on the magnitude of rock and fluid uncertainties jointly with the reservoir dynamic changes. The main contribution of this paper is to show how uncertain reservoir properties can affect the reliability of pressure and saturation estimation from 4DS and how it depends on reservoir changes induced by production. This information can be used in future projects which use quantitative inversion to integrate reservoir simulation and 4D seismic data. (paper)

  15. The Law of Elasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocco, Alberto; Masin, Sergio Cesare

    2010-01-01

    Participants estimated the imagined elongation of a spring while they were imagining that a load was stretching the spring. This elongation turned out to be a multiplicative function of spring length and load weight--a cognitive law analogous to Hooke's law of elasticity. Participants also estimated the total imagined elongation of springs joined…

  16. Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Hoon Yoo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the demand function for diesel in Korea covering the period 1986–2011. The short-run and long-run elasticities of diesel demand with respect to price and income are empirically examined using a co-integration and error-correction model. The short-run and long-run price elasticities are estimated to be −0.357 and −0.547, respectively. The short-run and long-run income elasticities are computed to be 1.589 and 1.478, respectively. Thus, diesel demand is relatively inelastic to price change and elastic to income change in both the short-run and long-run. Therefore, a demand-side management through raising the price of diesel will be ineffective and tightening the regulation of using diesel more efficiently appears to be more effective in Korea. The demand for diesel is expected to continuously increase as the economy grows.

  17. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  18. Cost-price estimation of clinical laboratory services based on activity-based costing: A case study from a developing country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouseli, Ali; Barouni, Mohsen; Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza; Samiee, Siamak Mirab; Vali, Leila

    2017-04-01

    It is believed that laboratory tariffs in Iran don't reflect the real costs. This might expose private laboratories at financial hardship. Activity Based Costing is widely used as a cost measurement instrument to more closely approximate the true cost of operations. This study aimed to determine the real price of different clinical tests of a selected private clinical laboratory. This study was a cross sectional study carried out in 2015. The study setting was the private laboratories in the city of Kerman, Iran. Of 629 tests in the tariff book of the laboratory (relative value), 188 tests were conducted in the laboratory that used Activity Based Costing (ABC) methodology to estimate cost-price. Analyzing and cost-price estimating of laboratory services were performed by MY ABCM software Version 5.0. In 2015, the total costs were $641,645. Direct and indirect costs were 78.3% and 21.7% respectively. Laboratory consumable costs by 37% and personnel costs by 36.3% had the largest share of the costing. Also, group of hormone tests cost the most $147,741 (23.03%), and other tests group cost the least $3,611 (0.56%). Also after calculating the cost of laboratory services, a comparison was made between the calculated price and the private sector's tariffs in 2015. This study showed that there was a difference between costs and tariffs in the private laboratory. One way to overcome this problem is to increase the number of laboratory tests with regard to capacity of the laboratories.

  19. Washington biofuel feedstock crop supply under output price and quantity uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Qiujie; Shumway, C. Richard

    2012-01-01

    Subsidized development of an in-state biofuels industry has received some political support in the state of Washington, USA. Utilizing in-state feedstock supplies could be an efficient way to stimulate biofuel industries and the local economy. In this paper we estimate supply under output price and quantity uncertainty for major biofuel feedstock crops in Washington. Farmers are expected to be risk averse and maximize the utility of profit and uncertainty. We estimate very large Washington price elasticities for corn and sugar beets but a small price elasticity for a third potential feedstock, canola. Even with the large price elasticities for two potential feedstocks, their current and historical production levels in the state are so low that unrealistically large incentives would likely be needed to obtain sufficient feedstock supply for a Washington biofuel industry. Based on our examination of state and regional data, we find low likelihood that a Washington biofuels industry will develop in the near future primarily using within-state biofuel feedstock crops. - Highlights: ► Within-state feedstock crop supplies insufficient for Washington biofuel industry. ► Potential Washington corn and sugar beet supplies very responsive to price changes. ► Feedstock supplies more responsive to higher expected profit than lower risk. ► R and D for conversion of waste cellulosic feedstocks is potentially important policy.

  20. Stochastic LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation method in distribution systems to minimize loss and emission based on Shapley value and two-point estimate method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azad-Farsani, Ehsan; Agah, S.M.M.; Askarian-Abyaneh, Hossein; Abedi, Mehrdad; Hosseinian, S.H.

    2016-01-01

    LMP (Locational marginal price) calculation is a serious impediment in distribution operation when private DG (distributed generation) units are connected to the network. A novel policy is developed in this study to guide distribution company (DISCO) to exert its control over the private units when power loss and green-house gases emissions are minimized. LMP at each DG bus is calculated according to the contribution of the DG to the reduced amount of loss and emission. An iterative algorithm which is based on the Shapley value method is proposed to allocate loss and emission reduction. The proposed algorithm will provide a robust state estimation tool for DISCOs in the next step of operation. The state estimation tool provides the decision maker with the ability to exert its control over private DG units when loss and emission are minimized. Also, a stochastic approach based on the PEM (point estimate method) is employed to capture uncertainty in the market price and load demand. The proposed methodology is applied to a realistic distribution network, and efficiency and accuracy of the method are verified. - Highlights: • Reduction of the loss and emission at the same time. • Fair allocation of loss and emission reduction. • Estimation of the system state using an iterative algorithm. • Ability of DISCOs to control DG units via the proposed policy. • Modeling the uncertainties to calculate the stochastic LMP.