An outstanding problem in marketing is why some firms in a competitive market delegate pricing decisions to agents and other firms do not. This paper analyzes the impact of competition on the delegation decision and, in turn, the impact of delegation on prices and incentives. The theory builds on the simplest framework of competition in two dimensions: prices and (sales agents') effort. Specifically, we are interested in answering the following questions: (1) Does competition affect the price...
Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.
R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis
In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.
This dissertation is concerned with decision making in retail operations management. Specifically, we focus on pricing, variety, and inventory decisions, which are at the interface of the marketing and operations functions of a retail firm. We consider two problems that relate to two major types of retail goods. First, we study joint pricing, variety, and inventory decisions for a set of substitutable" items that serve the same need for the consumer (commonly referred to as a "retailer's ...
Each item has a price, but not every company is able to independently set the price at which it wants to sell its goods. Firms need to have a streamlined method of setting prices for their goods, and their financial condition depends on it. When choosing a method of pricing, there must be considered and internal and external constraints. The paper discusses the stages of formation of prices in a continuous process of pricing, as well as methods of pricing, their advantages and disadvantages. ...
The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk-averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.
Sankar Sana, Shib
Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.
Yossi Aviv; Amit Pazgal
In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales ob...
Wu, Xiang; Zhang, Jinlong
This paper studies ordering and pricing problems for new repeat-purchase products. We incorporate the repeat-purchase rate and price effects into the Bass model to characterize the demand pattern. We consider two decision models: (1) two-stage decision model, in which the sales division chooses a price to maximize the gross profit and the purchasing division determines an optimal ordering decision to minimize the total cost under a given demand subsequently, and (2) joint decision model, in w...
This article discusses the analysis of a decision-making process faced by contestants on the television game show "The Price is Right". The included analyses of the original and related problems concern pattern searching, inductive reasoning, quadratic functions, and graphing. Computer simulation programs in BASIC and tables of…
Zhu, Stuart X.
We study a joint decision problem for replenishment, production, pricing strategies in the face of both supply and demand uncertainties. The supply of the raw material suffers from a potential supply disruption while the demand for the finished goods is price-sensitive and random. We assume that the
Hamane, Ryoso; Itoh, Toshiya; Tomita, Kouhei
When a store sells items to customers, the store wishes to determine the prices of the items to maximize its profit. Intuitively, if the store sells the items with low (resp. high) prices, the customers buy more (resp. less) items, which provides less profit to the store. So it would be hard for the store to decide the prices of items. Assume that the store has a set V of n items and there is a set E of m customers who wish to buy those items, and also assume that each item i ∈ V has the production cost di and each customer ej ∈ E has the valuation vj on the bundle ej ⊆ V of items. When the store sells an item i ∈ V at the price ri, the profit for the item i is pi = ri - di. The goal of the store is to decide the price of each item to maximize its total profit. We refer to this maximization problem as the item pricing problem. In most of the previous works, the item pricing problem was considered under the assumption that pi ≥ 0 for each i ∈ V, however, Balcan, et al. [In Proc. of WINE, LNCS 4858, 2007] introduced the notion of “loss-leader, ” and showed that the seller can get more total profit in the case that pi < 0 is allowed than in the case that pi < 0 is not allowed. In this paper, we derive approximation preserving reductions among several item pricing problems and show that all of them have algorithms with good approximation ratio.
textabstractPrice comparison is a basic element of competition. For comparison to work, at least prices need to be transparent. Moreover, price is usually a focal point in consumer thinking and deciding on transactions. Hence, obfuscating prices can be detrimental to consumers. Therefore, it is vital for policymakers to know how transparent pricing is in reality. Commercial practices involving price intransparency can be detrimental to consumer decision making and may be associated with marke...
Full Text Available This paper studies ordering and pricing problems for new repeat-purchase products. We incorporate the repeat-purchase rate and price effects into the Bass model to characterize the demand pattern. We consider two decision models: (1 two-stage decision model, in which the sales division chooses a price to maximize the gross profit and the purchasing division determines an optimal ordering decision to minimize the total cost under a given demand subsequently, and (2 joint decision model, in which the firm makes ordering and pricing decisions simultaneously to maximize the profit. We combine the generalized Bass model with dynamic lot sizing model to formulate the joint decision model. We apply both models to a specific imported food provided by an online fresh produce retailer in Central China, solve them by Gaussian Random-Walk and Wagner-Whitin based algorithms, and observe three results. First, joint pricing and ordering decisions bring more significant profits than making pricing and ordering decisions sequentially. Second, a great initiative in adoption significantly increases price premium and profit. Finally, the optimal price shows a U-shape (i.e., decreases first and increases later relationship and the profit increases gradually with the repeat-purchase rate when it is still not very high.
B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); V.Y. Golounov (Vladislav); J. Prabhu (Jaideep)
textabstractA potentially powerful way to assist consumers in making dynamic shopping decisions is to disclose price information to them before they shop, for example by posting prices on the Internet. This paper addresses the differential impact of disclosing either only current, or both current
Wei, Jie; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Yongjian
. The optimal strategies in closed form are given under the decision scenarios with symmetric information; moreover, the first order conditions that the optimal retail price, optimal wholesale price, and optimal collection rate satisfy are given under the decision scenarios with asymmetric information......The optimal decision problem of a closed-loop supply chain with symmetric and asymmetric information structures is considered using game theory in this paper. The paper aims to explore how the manufacturer and the retailer make their own decisions about wholesale price, retail price, and collection...... rate under symmetric and asymmetric information conditions. Four game models are established, which allow one to examine the strategies of each firm and explore the role of the manufacturer and the retailer in four different game scenarios under symmetric and asymmetric information structures...
Angela Eliza MICU
Full Text Available In most companies, there is ongoing conflict between managers in charge of covering costs (finance and accounting and managers in charge of satisfying customers (marketing and sales. Accounting journals warn against prices that fail to cover full costs, while marketing journals argue that customer willingness-to-pay must be the sole driver of prices. The conflict between these views wastes company resources and leads to pricing decisions that are imperfect compromises. Profitable pricing involves an integration of costs and customer value. To achieve that integration, however, both need to let go of misleading ideas and form a common vision of what drives profitability.
The following problems are discussed: (i) integrity of the tariff system, price setting and price control in relation to the secondary market; (ii) long-term contracting relations between the subjects - primary and secondary market entities; (iii) the setting of electricity purchase prices from independent producers; (iv) international integration of national systems, including electricity import prices; (v) cross-subsidies within the system; (vi) identification of adverse environmental impacts and their remediation by incorporating the associated costs into electricity prices; (vii) the cost basis of prices; (viii) objectivization of the cost basis; (ix) unification/diversification of the price and tariff levels and the associated distribution rent problem; (x) rational structure of the tariff system with respect to its complexity and ties to the measuring and control instrumentation and their efficiency; and (xi) breakdown of the costs of heat and electricity cogeneration and a fair price setting. (J.B.)
Full Text Available Nowadays, leasing has become an increasingly important and popular method for equipment acquisition. But, because of the rent pricing difficulties and some risks that affect the lessor and lessee's decision making, there are many people that still tend to buy equipment instead of lease it. In this paper we explore how risk can affect the leasing issue support mathematical model. For this purpose, we consider three types of risk; Credit risk, Transaction risk and Risk based pricing. In particular, our focus was on how to make decision about rent pricing in a leasing problem with different customers, various quality levels and different pricing methods. Finally, the mathematical model has been solved by Genetic Algorithm that is a search heuristic to optimize the problem. This algorithm was coded in MATLAB® R2012a to provide the best set of results.
Zhu, Stuart X.
We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a
Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.
This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...
Armstrong, Mark; Doyle, Chris; Vickers, John
The Baumol-Willig efficient component pricing rule states that it is efficient to set the price of access to an essential facility equal to the direct cost of access plus the opportunity cost to the integrated access provider. The authors analyze the relevant notion of 'opportunity cost' under various assumptions about demand and supply conditions, including product differentiation, bypass, and substitution possibilities, which all reduce opportunity cost compared to the benchmark case. They ...
Full Text Available This paper studies impact of heterogeneous consumer behavior on optimal pricing decisions under dual channel supply chain competition, which consists of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer is market leader with two sales channels: one is direct channel facing consumers directly and the other is indirect channel facing the retailer. Consumers decide whether to buy and from which channel to buy products. Purchasing decisions are based on considerations of prices posted on different channels, preference or loyalty to specific channels, and degree of rationality in decision-making process. Due to the complexity of heterogeneous consumer decision behavior, traditional mathematical analysis to the pricing problem becomes quite challenging. An agent-based modeling and simulation approach is then proposed and implemented. Simulation results reveal that consumer behavior influences both prices and profits. When consumers are increasingly loyal to the retailing channel, the retailer can make a higher selling price and more benefits. On the other hand, when consumers are increasingly loyal to the direct channel, the number of purchases from the direct channel increases and the manufacturer is better off. It is also interesting to note that as rationality level increases, selling prices for both channels slightly decrease.
Soni, Hardik N.; Chauhan, Ashaba D.
This study models a joint pricing, inventory, and preservation decision-making problem for deteriorating items subject to stochastic demand and promotional effort. The generalized price-dependent stochastic demand, time proportional deterioration, and partial backlogging rates are used to model the inventory system. The objective is to find the optimal pricing, replenishment, and preservation technology investment strategies while maximizing the total profit per unit time. Based on the partial backlogging and lost sale cases, we first deduce the criterion for optimal replenishment schedules for any given price and technology investment cost. Second, we show that, respectively, total profit per time unit is concave function of price and preservation technology cost. At the end, some numerical examples and the results of a sensitivity analysis are used to illustrate the features of the proposed model.
Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.
We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure based on a nonlinear version of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We analyze the behavior of firms’ pricing decisions in four different experimental economies. We consider how
DiSantis, Katherine I; Grier, Sonya A; Oakes, J Michael; Kumanyika, Shiriki K
Identifying food pricing strategies to encourage purchases of lower-calorie food products may be particularly important for black Americans. Black children and adults have higher than average obesity prevalence and disproportionate exposure to food marketing environments in which high calorie foods are readily available and heavily promoted. The main objective of this study was to characterize effects of price on food purchases of black female household shoppers in conjunction with other key decision attributes (calorie content/healthfulness, package size, and convenience). Factorial discrete choice experiments were conducted with 65 low- and middle-/higher-income black women. The within-subject study design assessed responses to hypothetical scenarios for purchasing frozen vegetables, bread, chips, soda, fruit drinks, chicken, and cheese. Linear models were used to estimate the effects of price, calorie level (or healthfulness for bread), package size, and convenience on the propensity to purchase items. Moderating effects of demographic and personal characteristics were assessed. Compared with a price that was 35% lower, the regular price was associated with a lesser propensity to purchase foods in all categories (β = -0.33 to -0.82 points on a 1 to 5 scale). Other attributes, primarily calorie content/healthfulness, were more influential than price for four of seven foods. The moderating variable most often associated with propensity to pay the regular versus lower price was the reported use of nutrition labels. Price reductions alone may increase purchases of certain lower-calorie or more healthful foods by black female shoppers. In other cases, effects may depend on combining price changes with nutrition education or improvements in other valued attributes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lyons, D M
Taking price out of the limelight and concentrating on customer relations, mutual respect, and build-in/buy-in; involving the user; developing communication and evaluation processes; and being process oriented to attain the results needed require commitment on the part of administration and materiel management. There must be a commitment of time to develop the process, commitment of resources to work through the process, and a commitment of support to enhance the process. With those three parameters in place, price will no longer be the only factor in the purchasing decision.
costs, and the collecting scaling parameters of the two retailers. The purpose of this paper is to explore how the manufacturer and the two retailers make their own decisions about wholesale price, retail prices, and the remanufacturing rates in the expected value model. Using game theory and fuzzy theory, we examine each firm’s strategy and explore the role of the manufacturer and the two retailers over three different game scenarios. We get some insights into the economic behavior of firms, which can serve as the basis for empirical study in the future.
Grigoriev, Alexander; van Lohn, Joyce; Uetz, Marc Jochen
We consider the problem of pricing items in order to maximize the revenue obtainable from a set of single minded customers. We relate the tractability of the problem to structural properties of customers' valuations: the problem admits an effcient approximation algorithm, parameterized along the
Jenny Li, Hongyan; Thorstenson, Anders
to a practically viable approach to decision-making. In addition to incorporating market uncertainty and pricing decisions in the traditional production and inventory planning process, our approach also accommodates the complexity of time-varying cost and capacity constraints. Finally, our numerical results show......Stochastic lot-sizing problems have been addressed quite extensively, but relatively few studies also consider marketing factors, such as pricing. In this paper, we address a joint stochastic lot-sizing and pricing problem with capacity constraints and backlogging for a ﬁrm that produces a single...... that the multi-phase heuristic algorithm solves the example problems effectively....
Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneous determination of retail price and lot-size (RPLS under the assumption that the supplier offers a fixed credit period to the retailer. It is assumed that the item in stock deteriorates over time at a rate that follows a two-parameter Weibull distribution and that the price-dependent demand is represented by a constant-price-elasticity function of retail price. The RPLS decision model is developed and solved analytically. Results are illustrated with the help of a base example. Computational results show that the supplier earns more profits when the credit period is greater than the replenishment cycle length. Sensitivity analysis of the solution to changes in the value of input parameters of the base example is also discussed.
Fang, Yan; Jiang, Yiping; Han, Xingxing
How to sell fresh products quickly to decrease the storage cost and to meet customer quality requirement is of vital importance in the food supply chain. Bundling fresh products is an efficient strategy to promote sales and reduce storage pressure of retailers. In this paper, we consider the bundle pricing decisions for homogeneous fresh products with quality deterioration. The value of fresh products with quality deterioration is approximated as an exponential function based on which custome...
Villumsen, Jonas Christoffer
strategy. In the Nordic electricity system a market with zonal prices is adopted. We consider the problem of designing zones in an optimal way explicitly considering uncertainty. Finally, we formulate the integrated problem of pipeline capacity expansion planning and transmission pricing in natural gas...... necessitates a radical change in the way we plan and operate energy systems. Another paradigm change which began in the 1990’s for electricity systems is that of deregulation. This has led to a variety of different market structures implemented across the world. In this thesis we discuss capacity planning...... and transmission pricing problems in energy transmission networks. Although the modelling framework applies to energy networks in general, most of the applications discussed concern the transmission of electricity. A number of the problems presented involves transmission switching, which allows the operator...
Full Text Available Low price and good taste of foods are regarded as two major factors for optimal human nutrition. Due to price fluctuations and taste diversity, these two factors cannot be certainly and determinately evaluated. This problem must be viewed from another perspective because of the uncertainty about the amount of nutrients per unit of foods and also diversity of people’s daily needs to receive them.This paper discusses human diet problem in fuzzy environment. The approach deals with multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem using a fuzzy programming technique for its solution. By prescribing a diet merely based on crisp data, some ofthe realities are neglected. For the same reason, we dealt with human diet problem through fuzzy approach. Results indicated uncertainty about factors of nutrition diet -including taste and price, amount of nutrients and their intake- would affect diet quality, making the proposed diet more realistic.
Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Charmchi, Masoud
Cooperative advertising is an agreement between a manufacturer and a retailer to share advertising cost at the local level. Previous studies have not investigated cooperative advertising for complementary products and their main focus was only on one good. In this paper, we study a two-echelon supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer with two complementary goods. The demand of each good is influenced not only by its price but also by the price of the other product. We use two game theory approaches to model this problem; Stackelberg manufacturer and Stackelberg retailer.
Adams, Zeno; Blickle, Kristian
Since house prices govern the consumption decisions of renters and owners alike, changing house prices can have far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. We analyze how the disposable income and consumption decisions of households are affected by exogenous house price changes in Switzerland. We look at consumption of both housing and non-durable goods to establish a comprehensive picture. We ensure that our house price variation is exogenous by instrumenting house prices with origin-shift immi...
Sawatzki, Carly; Goos, Merrilyn
This article examines some of the complexities associated with developing financially literate, enterprising young Australians through school education. We aimed to explore what seems to influence students in pricing goods for sale within their school community. Data were collected from more than 300 years 5 and 6 students (10-12 years of age) in four government primary schools in urban Darwin. Students were asked to respond to problem contexts involving fundraising as an example of an enterprise activity. The findings reveal that familiarity with fundraising initiatives, personal values, and language and literacy skills shaped the responses students gave. Students who gave loss-making and break-even responses were price conscious, but also tended to confuse terminology influencing mathematisation—i.e., "cost", "price" and "profit". Students who gave profit-making responses applied reasoning that was mathematical, financial and entrepreneurial, giving explanations that distinguished between these terms. We argue that these insights contribute to our understanding how upper primary school students interpret and respond to financial problems, with useful implications for schools and teachers.
Golan, Hagai; Ert, Eyal
While pricing decisions that are based on experience are quite common, e.g., setting a selling price for a used car, this type of decision has been surprisingly overlooked in psychology and decision research. Previous studies have focused on either choice decisions from experience, or pricing decisions from description. Those studies revealed that pricing involves cognitive mechanisms other than choice, while experience-based decisions involve mechanisms that differ from description-based ones. Thus, the mutual effect of pricing and experience on decision-making remains unclear. To test this effect, we experimentally compared real-money pricing decisions from experience with those from description, and with choices from experience. The results show that the mode of acquiring information affects pricing: the tendency to underprice high-probability prospects and overprice low-probability ones is diminished when pricing is based on experience rather than description. The findings further reveal attenuation of the tendency to underweight rare events, which underlies choices from experience, in pricing decisions from experience. The difference occurs because the response mode affects the search effort and decision strategy in decisions from experience. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available This research discusses the Internet service provider (ISP bandwidth allocation and pricing problems for a duopoly bandwidth market with two competitive ISPs. According to the contracts between Internet subscribers and ISPs, Internet subscribers can enjoy their services up to their contracted bandwidth limits. However, in reality, many subscribers may experience the facts that their on-line requests are denied or their connection speeds are far below their contracted speed limits. One of the reasons is that ISPs accept too many subscribers as their subscribers. To avoid this problem, ISPs can set limits for their subscribers to enhance their service qualities. This paper develops constrained nonlinear programming to deal with this problem for two competitive ISPs. The condition for reaching the equilibrium between the two competitive firms is derived. The market equilibrium price and bandwidth resource allocations are derived as closed form solutions.
Full Text Available According to the new measurement of launching online distribution channels of tobacco enterprises in China, this paper investigates the tobacco firm’s pricing decisions on the supply chain which consists of two manufacturers and one retailer under three dual-channel structures. Three dual-channel structures include no online channel, only one online channel by one manufacture, and two online channels by two manufacturers. We apply the Stackelberg game to analyze the equilibrium pricing strategies under different structures and try to explore the necessity and advantages of launching online sales channels. The results demonstrate that the substitutability of a product has significant impact on introducing online sales channels, and the online dual-channel structure could result in less profit for manufacturers compared to the traditional retail channel structure; and thus, a dual-channel structure with online sales is not the best strategy for traditional manufacturers. Moreover, when the product is less substitutable, the effect of the tobacco control on the online sales channel is inferior to the traditional channels and vice versa.
Mous, Lonneke; Robu, Valentin; La Poutré, Han
This paper studies the benefits of using priced options for solving the exposure problem that bidders with valuation synergies face when participating in multiple, sequential auctions. We consider a model in which complementary-valued items are auctioned sequentially by different sellers, who have the choice of either selling their good directly or through a priced option, after fixing its exercise price. We analyze this model from a decision-theoretic perspective and we show, for a setting where the competition is formed by local bidders, that using options can increase the expected profit for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, we derive the equations that provide minimum and maximum bounds between which a synergy buyer's bids should fall in order for both sides to have an incentive to use the options mechanism. Next, we perform an experimental analysis of a market in which multiple synergy bidders are active simultaneously.
W.H. van Boom (Willem)
textabstractPrice comparison is a basic element of competition. For comparison to work, at least prices need to be transparent. Moreover, price is usually a focal point in consumer thinking and deciding on transactions. Hence, obfuscating prices can be detrimental to consumers. Therefore, it is
van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem
Hek, Tan Kim; Ramli, Mohammad Fadzli; Iryanto
A report that presented at the World Forum II at The Hague in March 2000, said that it would be water crisis around the world and some countries will be lack of water in 2025, as a result of global studies. Inefficient using of water and considering water as free goods which means it can be used as much as we want without any lost. Thus, it causes wasteful consumption and low public awareness in using water without effort to preserve and conserve the water resources. In addition, the excessive exploitation of ground water for industrial facilities also leads to declining of available freshwater. Therefore, this paper reviews some problems arise all over the world regarding to improper and improving management, policies and methods to determine the optimum model of freshwater price in order to avoid its wasteful thus ensuring its sustainability. In this paper, we also proposed a preliminary model of water pricing represents a case of Medan, North Sumatera, Indonesia.
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of two advanced supply chain coordination mechanisms, Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR, under a price-sensitive uncertain demand environment, and to make the optimal decisions on retail price and order quantity for both mechanisms. Design/ methodology/ approach: Analytical models are first applied to formulate a profit maximization problem; furthermore, by applying simulation optimization solution procedures, the optimal decisions and performance comparisons are accomplished. Findings: The results of the case study supported the widely held view that more advanced coordination mechanisms yield greater supply chain profit than less advanced ones. Information sharing does not only increase the supply chain profit, but also is required for the coordination mechanisms to achieve improved performance. Research limitations/implications: This study considers a single vendor and a single retailer in order to simplify the supply chain structure for modeling. Practical implications: Knowledge obtained from this study about the conditions appropriate for each specific coordination mechanism and the exact functions of coordination programs is critical to managerial decisions for industry practitioners who may apply the coordination mechanisms considered. Originality/value: This study includes the production cost in Economic Order Quantity (EOQ equations and combines it with price-sensitive demand under stochastic settings while comparing VMI and CPFR supply chain mechanisms and maximizing the total profit. Although many studies have worked on information sharing within the supply chain, determining the performance measures when the demand is price-sensitive and stochastic was not reported by researchers in the past literature.
ABSTRACT Background: Cost-containment initiatives are re-shaping the pharmaceutical business environment and affecting market access as well as pricing and reimbursement decisions. Effective price management procedures are too complex to accomplish manually. Prior to February 2013, price management within Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd was done manually using an Excel database. The system was labour intensive, slow to update, and prone to error. An innovative web-based pricing information managem...
Full Text Available The life spans of durable goods are longer than their warranty periods. To satisfy the service demand of spare parts and keep the market competition advantage, enterprises have to maintain the longer inventory planning of spare parts. However, how to obtain a valid number of spare parts is difficult for those enterprises. In this paper, we consider a spare-part inventory problem, where the inventory can be replenished by two ways including the final production order and the remanufacturing way. Especially for the remanufacturing way, we consider the acquisition management problem of used products concerning an acquisition pricing decision. In a multiperiod setting, we formulate the problem into a dynamic optimization problem, where the system decisions include the final production order and acquisition price of used products at each period. By stochastic dynamic programming, we obtain the optimal policy of the acquisition pricing at each period and give the optimal policy structure of the optimization problem at the first period. Then, a recursion algorithm is designed to calculate the optimal decisions and the critical points in the policy. Finally, the numerical analyses show the effects of demand information and customer’s sensitive degree on the related decisions and the optimal cost.
Paul L. Fackler; Robert G. Haight
Monitoring is an important and costly activity in resource man-agement problems such as containing invasive species, protectingendangered species, preventing soil erosion, and regulating con-tracts for environmental services. Recent studies have viewedoptimal monitoring as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Pro-cess (POMDP), which provides a framework for...
Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan; Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil
In this paper, we address a multi-period supply chain network redesign problem in which customer zones have price-dependent stochastic demand for multiple products. A novel multi-stage stochastic program is proposed to simultaneously make tactical decisions including products' prices and strategic...... redesign decisions. Existing uncertainty in potential demands of customer zones is modeled through a finite set of scenarios, described in the form of a scenario tree. The scenarios are generated using a Latin Hypercube Sampling method and then a forward scenario construction technique is employed...
Background : Cost-containment initiatives are re-shaping the pharmaceutical business environment and affecting market access as well as pricing and reimbursement decisions. Effective price management procedures are too complex to accomplish manually. Prior to February 2013, price management within Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd was done manually using an Excel database. The system was labour intensive, slow to update, and prone to error. An innovative web-based pricing information management system was developed to address the shortcomings of the previous system. Development : A secure web-based system for submitting, reviewing and approving pricing requests was designed to: track all pricing applications and approval status; update approved pricing information automatically; provide fixed and customizable reports of pricing information; collect pricing and reimbursement rules from each country; validate pricing and reimbursement rules monthly. Several sequential phases of development emphasized planning, time schedules, target dates, budgets and implementation of the entire system. A test system was used to pilot the electronic (e)-pricing system with three affiliates (four users) in February 2013. Outcomes : The web-based system was introduced in March 2013, currently has about 227 active users globally and comprises more than 1000 presentations of 150 products. The overall benefits of switching from a manual to an e-pricing system were immediate and highly visible in terms of efficiency, transparency, reliability and compliance. Conclusions : The e-pricing system has improved the efficiency, reliability, compliance, transparency and ease of access to multinational drug pricing and approval information.
This article documents the need for reform of milk pricing in the Northeast. The New York price gouging law can be recast as a fair share law. This new milk policy "kills two birds with one stone." It corrects regional inequities in raw milk pricing by reforming the pricing of milk at retail by limiting and redistributing excessive retail margins to farmers and consumers. The fair share policy relieves allocative price inefficiency, improves the performance of the federal milk market order po...
Adian, S I; Durnev, V G
The paper presents a detailed survey of results concerning the main decision problems of group theory and semigroup theory, including the word problem, the isomorphism problem, recognition problems, and other algorithmic questions related to them. The well-known theorems of Markov-Post, P.S. Novikov, Adian-Rabin, Higman, Magnus, and Lyndon are given with complete proofs. As a rule, the proofs presented in this survey are substantially simpler than those given in the original papers. For the sake of completeness, we first prove the insolubility of the halting problem for Turing machines, on which the insolubility of the word problem for semigroups is based. Specific attention is also paid to the simplest examples of semigroups with insoluble word problem. We give a detailed proof of the significant result of Lyndon that, in the class of groups presented by a system of defining relations for which the maximum mutual overlapping of any two relators is strictly less than one fifth of their lengths, the word problem is soluble, while insoluble word problems can occur when non-strict inequality is allowed. A proof of the corresponding result for finitely presented semigroups is also given, when the corresponding fraction is one half
Full Text Available Pricing decision has been a crucial decision made by all business enterprises at all levels and has posed a great challenge for Small and Medium Enterprises in Nigeria. This research work treats the role of competition on the pricing decision of an organisation and the attainment of the Organisational Objective, a study of SMEs in Nigeria. The methodology adopted was the survey and empirical approach, with the administration of questionnaires to some SMEs in Nigeria, evaluating the effect competition has on pricing decision (change in product price and its overall effect on the attainment of organizational objective (profitability. Primary and secondary sources were used in collecting data. It was discovered that competition plays a major role in pricing decision and that there is a relationship between pricing decision and the attainment of organizational objective. Recommendations were made for the close monitoring of SMEs and that SMEs should employ the service of price experts when making pricing decisions.
Full Text Available This study examines the significant factors influencing pricing decision in Nigeria. The study is based on the appraisal of the factors that influence pricing decision using 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE in 2013. The cross sectional data was obtained from annual reports of the sampled firms which were analyzed based on OrdinaryRegression model. The results revealed that cost of sales has an insignificant positive effect on pricing policy, while company’s objective and consumer perception has significant positive relationship on pricing policy. On the external determinants, market demand and availability of close substitute has a significant negative effect on pricing policy while macroeconomic trend and market segment has insignificant negative effect on pricing policy. This study therefore suggests among others that, effort should be made on reducing cost of production in order to maximize profit.
Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.
The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.
Zhu, Stuart X.
We consider a decentralized supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing price- and lead-time-sensitive demand. The decision process is modelled by a Stackelberg game where the supplier, as a leader, determines the capacity and the wholesale price, and the retailer, as a follower,
Kost, Christoph; Flath, Christoph M.; Möst, Dominik
The dispatch opportunities provided by storage-enhanced Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants have direct implications on the investment decisions as not only nameplate capacity but also the storage capacity and the solar multiple play a crucial role for the viability of the plant investment. By integrating additional technical aspects and operation strategies, this paper extends the optimization model proposed by Madaeni et al., How Thermal Energy Storage Enhances the Economic Viability of Concentrating Solar Power. Using a mixed integer maximization approach the paper yields both the optimal layout decision and the operation of CSP plants. Subsequently, the economic value of CSP storage is analyzed via energy modeling of a Spanish plant location under the respective wholesale market prices as well as the local feed-in tariff. The analysis shows that investment incentives for CSP plants with storage need to appropriately account for the interdependency between the price incentives and the plant operating strategy. As the resulting revenue characteristics influence the optimal size of solar field and storage differing operating strategies also give rise to differing optimal plant layouts. Most noteworthy, the current Spanish support scheme offers only limited incentives for larger thermal storage capacity. - Highlights: • Dispatch opportunities of CSP have direct implications on both investment and operational decisions. • Valuation approach with a single mixed integer maximization problem. • Profitability of CSP plants under the premium feed-in tariff in Spain was assessed. • Layout decision and storage size are influenced by remuneration scheme. • Discuss alternative remuneration schemes for “dispatchable” RE technologies
Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)
This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.
HUO Yanfang; GU Yajie; HAN Lin; WANG Xize
Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) have never been so important and powerful as it is today in garment manufacturing industry.The OEM supplier's production decisions always have a great impact on the market performance and the profits of a garment brand manufacturer.With constrained capacity and multiply buyers,how to make reasonable production decisions is an urgent problem for OEM suppliers.A price discount model with a single OEM supplier and two buyers is proposed to deal with the problem.Based on this model,the OEM supplier could satisfy buyers' demands and guarantee their profits as well through adjusting price and delivery frequency.A numerical example validates the validity of the model.
Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.
Full Text Available This paper considers the price conflict problem between the online channel of a food processing factory and the offline channel of the food retailers in food supply chains by analyzing the pricing decisions and coordination mechanisms between the food processing factory and food retailers under the influence of a food quality information service. First, the Stackelberg game method and the Bertrand game method are used to optimize the pricing decisions with the goal of maximizing the profits of the food processing factory and retailer. The analysis shows that the food quality information service level is positively correlated with the price of the factory’s own channel, and the influence of the food quality information service level on the price of the food processing factory’s or the food retailer’s own channel is stronger than its influence on the price of a competitor’s channel. Second, the food supply chain members’ pricing decisions are analyzed using the case analysis method by considering practical problems in the food supply chain. The results indicate that the food processing factory should use the Stackelberg game to make pricing decisions. However, it is optimal for the food retailer to make pricing decisions under the Bertrand game, and the total profit of the food supply chain is optimized under centralized decision making. Finally, we use both the quantitative discount mechanism and the Stackelberg game method to analyze the profits obtained by the food processing factory and retailer. The results indicate that the food processing factory should implement a quantitative discount mechanism when the quantity discount coefficient is greater than 0.4, and the retailer should implement a quantity discount mechanism when the quantity discount coefficient is in the range of 0.25 to 0.4.
Michael Salinger; Miguel Ampudia
The Lerner relationship linking the profit-maximizing price to marginal cost and the elasticity of demand generalizes to the price-setting newsvendor, and the result resolves the puzzle over the different effects of additive and multiplicative uncertainty on the solution. Multiplicative uncertainty increases the optimal price because it increases the marginal cost of a unit sold and does not affect the markup factor. Additive uncertainty has no effect on the marginal cost of a unit sold and l...
Full Text Available Product quality and pricing, as the important competitive tools, play a key role in attracting consumers. In a supply chain, the decisions on product quality and pricing are usually interlinked and would influence the cooperation relation between the members, especially when they are fairness-concerned and have different bargaining power. However, linking the quality and pricing decisions to the decision-makers’ behavioral factors such as fairness concern draws a little attention in the literature of supply chain management. This paper incorporates the members’ fairness preference and bargaining power into the product quality and pricing decisions in a two-echelon supply chain, where the supplier offers core components with a certain quality level to the downstream manufacturer, who subsequently sells the final products in the end market. Both the supplier and the manufacturer are assumed to be fairness-concerned by adopting Nash bargaining solutions as their fairness reference points. We use game-theoretic models to analyze the equilibrium product quality and pricing strategies under the setting of integrated and decentralized supply chain, respectively. Detailed comparisons and sensitivity analysis are further conducted to examine the impacts of members’ strengths of fairness concern, bargaining power, and decision structure on their equilibrium product quality and pricing strategies and corresponding payoffs.
Koller, Michael; Ohmann, Christian; Lorenz, Wilfried
Utility is a concept that originates from utilitarianism, a highly influential philosophical school in the Anglo-American world. The cornerstone of utilitarianism is the principle of maximum happiness or utility. In the medical sciences, this utility approach has been adopted and developed within the field of medical decision making. On an operational level, utility is the evaluation of a health state or an outcome on a one-dimensional scale ranging from 0 (death) to 1 (perfect health). By adding the concept of expectancy, the graphic representation of both concepts in a decision tree results in the specification of expected utilities and helps to resolve complex medical decision problems. Criticism of the utility approach relates to the rational perspective on humans (which is rejected by a considerable fraction of research in psychology) and to the artificial methods used in the evaluation of utility, such as Standard Gamble or Time Trade Off. These may well be the reason why the utility approach has never been accepted in Germany. Nevertheless, innovative concepts for defining goals in health care are urgently required, as the current debate in Germany on "Nutzen" (interestingly translated as 'benefit' instead of as 'utility') and integrated outcome models indicates. It remains to be seen whether this discussion will lead to a re-evaluation of the utility approach.
Full Text Available This paper studies the impact of emergencies on the supplier’s decision-making behaviors including production and information sharing in consideration of consumer risk perception, consumer loss aversion phenomenon, and government price control. The intensity of emergencies is sequential and emergencies can be divided into two types (positive or negative according to their effect on demand. When emergencies have negative effect on demand, the supplier’s sales will reduce and he would share information to the market. When emergencies have positive effect on demand, we find that when the price is under price cap the supplier will not share information to the market; when the price reaches price cap, the supplier will share a certain amount of information to the market. We were surprised to find that increasing demand is not always good for the supplier when there exist government price control and lost sales penalty, and information helps the supplier to effectively manipulate demand.
Smith, Joseph D.; Moracco, Judy N.
Describes a study and methods used by Navy Campus to choose a funding arrangement that would make the best use of the money available for voluntary educational purposes. Discusses modifying the economic concept of price elasticity to the interests of educationally oriented audiences. (JOW)
On 10 October 2014, the Bombay High Court exercised its non-appellate jurisdiction to quash a transfer pricing claim in the case of Vodafone, in which the tax authorities sought to apply the arm’s length principle to equity financing transactions. This interpretation has been accepted by the
Hammad, Eman A
Drug pricing is an example of a priority setting in a developing country with official requirements for the use of cost-effectiveness (CE) evidence. To describe the role of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. A prospective review of all applications submitted between November 2013 and May 2015 to the Jordan Food and Drug Association's drug pricing committee was carried out. All applications that involved requests for CE evidence were reviewed. Details on the type of study, the extent, and whether the evidence submitted was part of the formal deliberations were extracted and summarized. The committee reviewed a total of 1608 drug pricing applications over the period of the study. CE evidence was requested in only 11 applications. The submitted evidence was of limited use to the committee due to concerns about quality, relevance of studies, and lack of pharmacoeconomic expertise. There were also no clear rules describing how CE would inform pricing decisions. Limited local data and health economic experience were the main barriers to the use of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. In addition, there are no official rules describing the elements and process by which the CE evidence would inform drug pricing decisions. This study summarized accumulated observations for the current use of economic evaluations and evidence-based decision making in Jordan. Recommendations have been proposed to applicants and key decision makers to enhance the role of economic evidence in influencing health policies and evidence-based decision making across priority settings. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sun, X.; Li, Y.; Govindan, Kannan
As uncertainties increase in both the acquisition of used products and the demand of remanufactured products, balancing supply and demand has become more important for a remanufacturing firm. Therefore, the remanufacturing firm needs to combine acquisition management with remanufacturing planning...... level and acquisition price of each period, which holds a lower computational complexity. Finally, numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the algorithm and to conduct managerial insights of main parameters....
Patouillard, Edith; Hanson, Kara; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Palafox, Benjamin; Tougher, Sarah; Pok, Sochea; O?Connell, Kate; Goodman, Catherine
Background In many low-income countries, the private commercial sector plays an important role in the provision of malaria treatment. However, the quality of care it provides is often poor, with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) generally being too costly for consumers. Decreasing ACT prices is critical for improving private sector treatment outcomes and reducing the spread of artemisinin resistance. Yet limited evidence exists on the factors influencing retailers? pricing decisions. This...
Full Text Available The newsvendor models considering decision-makers’ behavioral factors remain a fruitful research area in operation management field in past decade. In this paper, we further extend the current literatures to look into joint inventory, pricing, and advertising decisions considering loss aversion effects under the newsvendor setting. The purpose is to explore how the loss aversions affect the optimal policy of order quantity, price, and advertising effort level. We present an integrated utility model to measure both economic payoff and loss aversion utility of the newsvendor, where surplus loss aversion and stockout loss aversion are first separately defined and quantified. Then, we analyze the optimal solution conditions of the integrated model under exogenous and endogenous price cases, respectively. Under exogenous price case, we find that the uniquely optimal policy exists and is presented in the closed form. Under endogenous price case, the optimal policy is determined under mild conditions; we also provide the solutions when order quantity factor or advertising effort level is fixed in this case. In addition, the sensitivity analysis shows that the loss aversions affect the optimal decisions of order quantity, price, and advertising effort level in a systematic way.
Bach, Lukas; Wøhlk, Sanne; Lysgaard, Jens
In this paper, we consider the Mixed Capacitated General Routing Problem which is a combination of the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem and the Capacitated Arc Routing Problem. The problem is also known as the Node, Edge, and Arc Routing Problem. We propose a Branch-and-Cut-and-Price algorithm...
Guidi, Marco G.D.; Russell, Alexander; Tarbert, Heather
This paper presents evidence of the effects of OPEC policy decisions on the US and UK stock markets, as well as on oil prices, during periods of conflict and non-conflict from 1986 to 2004. The outcomes of this study are potentially valuable in assessing future strategies for OPEC policy decisions on oil production targets for its Members. This paper also adds to the strong body of evidence supporting the hypothesis that market returns are influenced by factors that affect business conditions, such as oil price shocks. The key findings are that there are asymmetric reactions to OPEC policy decisions during conflict periods for the US and UK stock markets. During conflict periods, oil markets require time to incorporate OPEC decisions. Conversely, in non-conflict periods the evidence suggests that the oil markets incorporate OPEC decisions efficiently. (Author)
Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica
The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.
Background: The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. Objective: We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. Methods: With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. Results: The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. PMID:27655757
Osborn, William C.; Goodman, Barbara Ettinger
This report presents the results of research that examined widely diverse decision problems and attempted to specify their common behavior elements. To take into account the psychological complexity of most real-life decision problems, and to develop a tentative organization of decision behavior that will embrace the many, highly diverse types of…
Barfod, Michael Bruhn
This paper presents an approach for the structuring and assessing of large and complex decision problems using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The MCDA problem is structured in a decision tree and assessed using the REMBRANDT technique featuring a procedure for limiting the number of pair...
A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice
Full Text Available Purpose: With the rapid development of economy and the support of government policy, the development of the logistics industry has become a new economic growth engine. As we all know, the reasonable price of logistics service is the most critical factor for logistics enterprises to win market share and make profit. At the same time, the service level is one of the most important factors which will influence the size of the market share. Therefore, this paper constructs a pricing model considering a situation that the logistics service level affects the market demand. This model helps the enterprises to make scientific decisions.Methodology: To achieve this objective, this paper constructs the TPL service and the pricing decision models based on the game theory.Findings: The conclusion shows that under the situation of independent decision-making, the enterprise which has strong ability of logistics service does not necessarily have a competitive advantage, while pricing equilibrium under the situation of joint decision-making, not only make both sides get more income, but also be conducive to improve the level of service.Research limitations: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy the model such as there are only two TPL enterprises to participate in, and considerations are taken under the condition of complete information environment. These assumptions can be relaxed in the future work.Originality: In this research, logistics service level is taken account into the areas of logistics service pricing, which makes the models more practical and more perfect. And this paper constructs game models based on game theory to make up the limitations of traditional pricing theories in logistics service pricing.
Kolasa, Katarzyna; Kalo, Zoltan; Hornby, Edward
Given limited financial resources in the Central Eastern European (CEE) region, challenges in obtaining access to innovative medical technologies are formidable. The objective of this research was to develop a decision tree that supports decision makers and drug manufacturers from CEE region in their search for optimal innovative pricing and reimbursement scheme (IPRSs). A systematic literature review was performed to search for published IPRSs, and then ten experts from the CEE region were interviewed to ascertain their opinions on these schemes. In total, 33 articles representing 46 unique IPRSs were analyzed. Based on our literature review and subsequent expert input, key decision nodes and branches of the decision tree were developed. The results indicate that outcome-based schemes are better suited to deal with uncertainties surrounding cost effectiveness, while non-outcome-based schemes are more appropriate for pricing and budget impact challenges.
Full Text Available Supply disruption may cause strong complaints of customers, which is a cost loss for the firms in the supply chain. Obviously, if realizing that there is the disruption risk, the members in a supply chain will adjust their decisions. For analyzing the influence, we consider a popular supply chain mode with dual channels, where one manufacturer has its direct sales channel and one traditional retailer channel. The manufacturer may suffer a supply disruption so that all ordered products by the retailer or the direct retail channel will be lost, and the members in supply chain will bear the corresponding disruption penalty from the customers. By considering four structures with different market power relations, the closed-form optimal price decisions of the four models are given. We found that the disruption factor improves the sales prices for any member structure as compared to the supply chain without the disruption. And the direct retail prices in the different modes are the same as each other, but the price of the traditional channel is influenced by the market share. And the sorts of the sales prices under different structures are given. We also conduct some extensive numerical analysis and compare the results under different structures. We observe that the expected optimal profits of considering the external penalty are smaller than those of no external penalty, and we give a sort of the optimal expected profits. And we also provide the effects of some parameters on the optimal decisions and the optimal expected profits.
Berk, Jonathan B; Hughson, Eric; Vandezande, Kirk
The television game show The Price Is Right is used as a laboratory to conduct a preference-free test of rational decision theory in an environment with substantial economic incentives. It is found that contestants' strategies are transparently suboptimal. In response to this evidence, simple rules of thumb are developed that are shown to explain observed bidding patterns better than rational decision theory. Further, learning during the show reduces the frequency of strategic errors. This is...
Full Text Available Environmental and social responsibilities have led many manufacturers to used products recovery. Meanwhile, many manufacturers nowadays sell products via indirect retailer channels and direct Internet channels. This paper models a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain to improve the sustainability of products. We apply the two-stage optimization technique and the Nash game to examine the impacts of the retail services and the degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel on the pricing of players in a centralized and a decentralized dual-channel supply chain. Our results show that the retail services have a great impact on the manufacturer and the retailer’s pricing strategies. We also compare the differences of pricing strategies between a centralized and a decentralized dual-channel supply chain and suggest the optimal retail services and pricing decisions for the players in the supply chain.
Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.
This article aims to investigate the impacts of climate change and of lower and more volatile crop price levels as currently observed in the European Union (EU) on optimal management decisions, average income and income risks in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bioeconomic
Beers, P.J.; Boshuizen, H.P.A.; Kirschner, P.A.; Gijselaers, W.H.
Organisations increasingly have to deal with complex problems. They often use multidisciplinary teams to cope with such problems where different team members have different perspectives on the problem, different individual knowledge and skills, and different approaches on how to solve the problem.
In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.
Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has assumed an increasing role in drug coverage and, in some cases, pricing decisions in Europe, as decision-makers seek to obtain better value for money. This issue brief comparatively examines the use of CER across six countries--Denmark, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden. With CER gaining traction in the United States, these international experiences offer insights and potential lessons. Investing in CER can help address the current gap in publicly available, credible, up-to-date, and scientifically based comparative information on the effectiveness of drugs and other health interventions. This information can be used to base coverage and pricing decisions on evidence of value, thereby facilitating access to and public and private investment in the most beneficial new drugs and technologies. In turn, use of CER creates incentives for more efficient, high-quality health care and encourages development of innovative products that offer measurable value to patients.
This PhD thesis focuses on the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on investment decisions in the European power sector. We provide the policy background on the EU ETS and contemporary policy and economic developments. We discuss the main types of compliance buyers' responses to the EU ETS constraint: emissions reductions, acquisitions of additional compliance assets, and other responses. We present the results of an empirical survey of the most carbon constrained European utilities. We show that strategic and economic considerations prevailed over the introduction of the carbon price. We discuss the impact of those investments on European utilities' EU ETS profile by looking at the potentially locked-in emissions, changes in the compliance perimeter and some specific developments relative to carbon leakage and Kyoto offsets. We offer a review of the investment decision-making approaches. Exploring the impact of carbon price scenarios on generation investment portfolios, we are able to identify that: the EU ETS has a moderate but central reallocation role in power generation investment portfolios; insights into the long-term carbon price trend are particularly helpful to unlock investment; some much discussed policy provisions only have a relatively small impact on investment portfolios; carbon price expectations impact decisions relative to power generation investment portfolios; while the EU ETS has a central role, the climate and non-climate policy mix matters most. (author)
Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; Janszen, F.H.A.; Kaag, M.
With the liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market the electricity price will be divided into a network component and a commodity component. Further, liberalisation will change the determination of the commodity price. Before liberalisation the commodity price was centrally determined by the Sep (Samenwerkende Electriciteitsproductiebedrijven or Dutch Electricity Generating Board), but with the introduction of liberalisation prices will be determined by the market itself. To analyse the liberalised market a new model (POWERS) has been developed in which the new structure of the electricity market is incorporated and the increasing competition between energy companies is taken into account. An overview of the POWERS-model is presented in this report. The model is based on the system dynamics. This means that the decisions (regarding production volume, allocation of the plants, price setting) made by each market player is based on information from the previous period. Optimisation models that are based on the assumption of 'perfect foresight' do not apply to the electricity market. Currently, the model contains a detailed description of the production capacity of the current market players in the Netherlands. Among other purposes the model is suitable for determining an outlook of forward prices on the Dutch electricity market and for analysing the impacts of alternative strategies of the different market players on their profits. 4 refs
Phillips, Susan D.; And Others
Compared decision-making style and problem-solving appraisal in 243 undergraduates. Results suggested that individuals who employ rational decision-making strategies approach problematic situations, while individuals who endorse dependent decisional strategies approach problematic situations without confidence in their problem-solving abilities.…
Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo
This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…
Full Text Available Coordinating the supply chain is among the most important subjects that is extensively addressed in the related literature. If a supply chain is to be coordinated, it is equivalent to say that we must solve a problem related to competition and cooperation. The game theory is obviously one of the most effective methods to solve such problems, in which the players of the supply chain are assumed to engage in cooperative and non-cooperative games. The current study aims to coordinate a two-level supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer. This will be achieved using cooperative advertisement along with pricing decisions such that the manufacturer offers a price discount to the retailer and the demand is affected by pricing and advertisement. Cooperative advertisement is a coordinated effort made by all the members of the supply chain to increase the customer demand, in which the retailer does the local advertisement and the manufacturer pays for a portion or all the costs of the retailer advertisement. We consider two models for manufacturer-retailer relation using the game theory: the manufacturer-Stackelberg and the retailer-Stackelberg games with asymmetric power distribution.
Gamst, Mette; Jensen, Thomas Sejr
In several countries, home care is provided for certain citizens living at home. The long-term home care scheduling problem is to generate work plans such that a high quality of service is maintained, the work hours of the employees are respected, and the overall cost is kept as low as possible. We...... propose a branchand-price algorithm for the long-term home care scheduling problem. The pricing problem generates a one-day plan for an employee, and the master problem merges the plans with respect to regularity constraints. The method is capable of generating plans with up to 44 visits during one week....
Antonik, Adam; Huth, Michael; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand
, and whether all implementations of one specification are implementations of another one. For each of these decision problems we investigate the worst-case computational complexity for the modal and mixed case. We show that the first decision problem is EXPTIME-complete for modal as well as for mixed......Modal and mixed transition systems are specification formalisms that allow mixing of over- and under-approximation. We discuss three fundamental decision problems for such specifications: whether a set of specifications has a common implementation, whether a sole specification has an implementation...... specifications. We prove that the second decision problem is EXPTIME-complete for mixed specifications (while it is known to be trivial for modal ones). The third decision problem is furthermore demonstrated to be EXPTIME-complete for mixed specifications....
Dual channel supply chain (DCSC) has been attracting many researchers' attention. Their contributions mainly are in two folds, namely pricing problem and inventory policy. However, research to address both pricing and inventory problems simultaneously are still scarce. Meanwhile in recent competitive market, product substitution is an unavoidable practice in fulfilling customer demand when the main product is unavailable. Thus how to decide price and order quantity by considering product substitution under DCSC setting is an interesting topic to address. In this paper, corresponding mathematical model incorporating such problem is proposed. This model consists of objective function measuring sales revenue and inventory cost, and some constraints to assure positive profit margin, interplaying price between online and offline channel, and positive demand. Two pricing schemes, namely Vertical Nash and Stackelberg Leadership are evaluated. The result shows that in any situation of substitution level, Vertical Nash solution provides higher financial performance than that under Stackelberg Leadership. In addition, this work's results have also revealed that there exist some threshold values differentiating when it is better off to apply Vertical Nash scenario an, when Stackelberg Leadership scenario is preferable.
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kroon, I. B.; Faber, Michael Havbro
Calibration of partial coefficients for a class of structures where no code exists is considered. The partial coefficients are determined such that the difference between the reliability for the different structures in the class considered and a target reliability level is minimized. Code...... calibration on a decision theoretical basis is discussed. Results from code calibration for rubble mound breakwater designs are shown....
The changing landscape of energy pricing and buying in Alberta provided the impetus for this conference, where a wide range of topics were covered. The presenters reflected on the importance of having comprehensive information in order to make a decision in this field. The eleven speakers represented power distribution companies and discussed: the new challenges in buying and selling power in Alberta; the evolving electricity market managing and energy portfolio; pricing of power in the new market; the impact on industrial/commercial customers; allocation of risk in power purchase agreements; paying for the transmission system; marketing under the changing rules of the game; forward markets in Alberta; new product and service offerings; alternatives to the grid: distributed generation, energy strategies; uncertainty and opportunity in Alberta's deregulated market, load allocation and financial settlement. The conference was an opportunity for all interested parties to exchange views and ideas pertaining to the marketing and the pricing of energy in Alberta. refs., tabs., figs
Full Text Available In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to these prices. A distributed gradient algorithm automatically defines the locational prices that avoid voltage problems. Using these locational prices results in a minimum cost for the distribution operator to control the voltage. Locational prices can differ between the three phases in unbalanced grids. This is caused by a higher consumption or production in one of the phases compared to the other phases and provides the opportunity for arbitrage, where power is transferred from a phase with a low price to a phase with a high price. The effect of arbitrage is analyzed. The proposed algorithm is applied to an existing three-phase four-wire radial grid. Several simulations with realistic data are performed.
Wøhlk, Sanne; Lysgaard, Jens
The paper considers the Cumulative Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CCVRP), which is a variation of the well-known Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP). In this problem, the traditional objective of minimizing total distance or time traveled by the vehicles is replaced by minimizing...... the sum of arrival times at the customers. A branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm for obtaining optimal solutions to the problem is proposed. Computational results based on a set of standard CVRP benchmarks are presented....
Chen, Yuting; Zhang, Rong
Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator’s joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal. PMID:28930198
Full Text Available Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator’s joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal.
Chen, Yuting; Zhang, Rong; Liu, Bin
Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator's joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal.
Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Chater, Nick; Winston, Joel S; Yoshida, Wako; Wright, Nicholas; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Ray
A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences. 2014 APA, all rights reserved
Jani, Ashesh B.; Hellman, Samuel
Purpose: To determine the relative influence of treatment features and treatment availabilities on final treatment decisions in early prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We describe and apply a model, based on hedonic prices, to understand provider-patient interactions in prostate cancer. This model included four treatments (observation, external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, and prostatectomy) and five treatment features (one efficacy and four treatment complication features). We performed a literature search to estimate (1) the intersections of the 'bid' functions and 'offer' functions with the price function along different treatment feature axes, and (2) the treatments actually rendered in different patient subgroups based on age. We performed regressions to determine the relative weight of each feature in the overall interaction and the relative availability of each treatment modality to explain differences between observed vs. predicted use of different modalities in different patient subpopulations. Results: Treatment efficacy and potency preservation are the major factors influencing decisions for young patients, whereas preservation of urinary and rectal function is much more important for very elderly patients. Referral patterns seem to be responsible for most of the deviations of observed use of different treatments from those predicted by idealized provider-patient interactions. Specifically, prostatectomy is used far more commonly in young patients and radiotherapy and observation used far more commonly in elderly patients than predicted by a uniform referral pattern. Conclusions: The hedonic prices approach facilitated identifying the relative importance of treatment features and quantification of the impact of the prevailing referral pattern on prostate cancer treatment decisions
Schmidt, Marie E
This book treats three planning problems arising in public railway transportation planning: line planning, timetabling, and delay management, with the objective to minimize passengers’ travel time. While many optimization approaches simplify these problems by assuming that passengers’ route choice is independent of the solution, this book focuses on models which take into account that passengers will adapt their travel route to the implemented planning solution. That is, a planning solution and passengers’ routes are determined and evaluated simultaneously. This work is technically deep, with insightful findings regarding complexity and algorithmic approaches to public transportation problems with integrated passenger routing. It is intended for researchers in the fields of mathematics, computer science, or operations research, working in the field of public transportation from an optimization standpoint. It is also ideal for students who want to gain intuition and experience in doing complexity proofs ...
Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.
Dabia, Said; Dabia, Said; Van Woensel, Tom
of column generation, and a tailored labeling algorithm is used to solve the pricing problem. We introduce new dominance criteria that allow more label dominance. For our numerical results, we modified Solomon's data sets by adding time dependency. Our algorithm is able to solve about 63% of the instances...... solution methods to the DM-TDVRPTW are based on (meta-)heuristics. The decomposition of an arc-based formulation leads to a setpartitioning problem as the master problem, and a time-dependent shortest path problem with resource constraints as the pricing problem. The master problem is solved by means...... with 25 customers, 38% of the instances with 50 customers, and 15% of the instances with 100 customers. © 2013 INFORMS....
Full Text Available The estimation of implied volatility is a typical PDE inverse problem. In this paper, we propose the TV-L1 model for identifying the implied volatility. The optimal volatility function is found by minimizing the cost functional measuring the discrepancy. The gradient is computed via the adjoint method which provides us with an exact value of the gradient needed for the minimization procedure. We use the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm (L-BFGS to find the optimal and numerical examples shows the effectiveness of the presented method.
Klose, Andreas; Görtz, Simon
to compute optimal solutions to large or difficult problem instances by means of a branch-and-bound procedure information about such a primal fractional solution can be advantageous. In this paper, a (stabilized) column generation method is, therefore, employed in order to solve a corresponding master...... problem exactly. The column generation procedure is then employed within a branch-and-price algorithm for computing optimal solutions to the CFLP. Computational results are reported for a set of larger and difficult problem instances....
Firat, M.; Crognier, Guillaume; Gabor, Adriana; Zhang, Y.
In Artificial Intelligence (AI) field, decision trees have gained certain importance due to their effectiveness in solving classification and regression problems. Recently, in the literature we see finding optimal decision trees are formulated as Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) models. This
Røpke, Stefan; Cordeau, Jean-Francois
In the pickup and delivery problem with time windows (PDPTW), vehicle routes must be designed to satisfy a set of transportation requests, each involving a pickup and a delivery location, under capacity, time window, and precedence constraints. This paper introduces a new branch......-and-cut-and-price algorithm in which lower bounds are computed by solving through column generation the linear programming relaxation of a set partitioning formulation. Two pricing subproblems are considered in the column generation algorithm: an elementary and a non-elementary shortest path problem. Valid inequalities...
Ebipanipre Gabriel Mieseigha
Full Text Available This paper examined activity based costing and product pricing decisions in Nigeria so as to ascertain whether activity based costing have the ability to enhance profitability and control cost of manufacturing firms. Towards this end, a multiple correlation and regression estimation technique was used in analyzing the data obtained in the study. The study found that activity based costing affects product costing and pricing decision. In addition, the results showed that improved profitability and cost control can be achieved by implementing activity based costing approach by manufacturing firms. The implication is that traditional costing approach fails in many pricing situations by arbitrarily allocating indirect cost and activity based costing helps in allocating indirect cost accurately. Thus, it was recommended amongst others that activity based costing need to be practiced, maintained and implemented by manufacturing firms since it has a broad range of uses for a wide variety of company functions and operations in the area of process analysis, strategy support, time-based accounting, monitoring wastage, as well as quality and productivity management.
Lau, Chun Sing
This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in
Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH
Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...
Røpke, Stefan; Madsen, Oli B.G.
In the traveling salesman problem with time windows (TSPTW) one is given a depot and a set of nodes to be visited by a salesman. The salesman starts his trip at the depot and must visit all nodes while respecting time windows at the nodes. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total...... distance traveled by the salesman. The TSPTW is formulated as a set-partitioning problem which is solved by using combined cut and column generation. The pricing sub problem in the column generation procedure is a shortest path problem with time window constraints and 2-cycle elimination. A standard column...
Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Asokkumar, Aarthi [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Hassanzadeh, Mohammad [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Aarabali, Amirsaman [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)
Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.
Hoi Ying Wong
Full Text Available Turbo warrants are liquidly traded financial derivative securities in over-the-counter and exchange markets in Asia and Europe. The structure of turbo warrants is similar to barrier options, but a lookback rebate will be paid if the barrier is crossed by the underlying asset price. Therefore, the turbo warrant price satisfies a partial differential equation (PDE with a boundary condition that depends on another boundary-value problem (BVP of PDE. Due to the highly complicated structure of turbo warrants, their valuation presents a challenging problem in the field of financial mathematics. This paper applies the homotopy analysis method to construct an analytic pricing formula for turbo warrants under stochastic volatility in a PDE framework.
Dieterly, D. L.
A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.
Full Text Available The dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer under uncertain demand of an indirect channel is constructed. In this paper, we establish three pricing models under decentralized decision making, namely, the Nash game between the manufacturer and the retailer, the manufacturer-Stackelberg game, and the retailer-Stackelberg game, to investigate pricing decisions of the CLSC in which the manufacturer uses the direct channel and indirect channel to sell products and entrusts the retailer to collect the used products. We numerically analyze the impact of customer acceptance of the direct channel (θ on pricing decisions and excepted profits of the CLSC. The results show that when the variable θ changes in a certain range, the wholesale price, retail price, and expected profits of the retailer all decrease when θ increases, while the direct online sales price and manufacturer’s expected profits in the retailer-Stackelberg game all increase when θ increases. However, the optimal recycling transfer price and optimal acquisition price of used product are unaffected by θ.
The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored
Chen, Zhiping; Hurkens, C.A.J.; Jong, de J.L.
After giving a suitable model for the cutting strips problem, we present a branch-and-price algorithm for it by combining the column generation technique and the branch-and-bound method with LP relaxations. Some theoretical issues and implementation details about the algorithm are discussed,
Delgado, Ana; López-Fernández, Luis Andrés; de Dios Luna, Juan; Saletti Cuesta, Lorena; Gil Garrido, Natalia; Puga González, Almudena
To identify patient expectations of clinical decision-making at consultations with their general practitioners for distinct health problems and to determine the patient and general practitioner characteristics related to these expectations, with special focus on gender. We performed a multicenter cross-sectional study in 360 patients who were interviewed at home. Data on patients' sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and satisfaction were gathered. General practitioners supplied information on their gender and postgraduate training in family medicine. A questionnaire was used to collect data on patients' expectations that their general practitioner account of their opinion and on expectations of clinical decision making> at consultations with their general practitioner for five problems or hypothetical clinical scenarios (strong chest pain/cold with fever/abnormal discharge/depression or sadness/severe family problem). Patients were asked to indicate their preference that decisions on diagnosis and treatment be taken by: a) the general practitioner alone; b) the general practitioner, taking account of the patient's opinion; c) the patient, taking account of the general practitioner's opinion and d) the patient alone. A logistic regression was performed for clinical decision-making. The response rate was 90%. The mean age was 47.3 + or - 16.5 years and 51% were female. Patients' expectations that their general practitioner listen, explain and take account of their opinions were higher than their expectations of participating in decision-making, depending on the problem in question: 32% wished to participate in chest pain and 49% in family problems. Women had lower expectations of participating in depression and family problems. Patients with female general practitioners had higher expectations of participating in family problems and colds. Most patients wished to be listened to, informed and taken into account by their general practitioners and, to a lesser
Full Text Available This paper investigates optimal price and quality decisions of a manufacturer-retailer supply chain under demand uncertainty, in which players are both risk-averse decision makers. The manufacturer determines the wholesale price and quality of the product, and the retailer determines the retail price. By means of game theory, we employ the constant absolute risk aversion (CARA function to analyze two different supply chain structures, that is, manufacturer Stackelberg model (MS and retailer Stackelberg model (RS. We then analyze the results to explore the effects of risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer upon the equilibrium decisions. Our results imply that both the risk aversion of the manufacturer and the retailer play an important role in the price and quality decisions. We find that, in general, in MS and RS models, the optimal wholesale price and quality decrease with the risk aversion of the manufacturer but increase with the risk aversion of the retailer, while the retail price decreases with the risk aversion of the manufacturer as well as the retailer. We also examine the impact of quality cost coefficient on the optimal decisions. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the different degree of effects of players’ risk aversion on equilibrium results and to compare results in different models considered.
The concept of transformative decision rules provides auseful tool for analyzing what is often referred to as the`framing', or `problem specification', or `editing' phase ofdecision making. In the present study we analyze a fundamentalaspect of transformative decision rules, viz. permutability. A
Husain, Shakir; Yilmaz, Emre
The purpose of this study is to answer the research question of how a service company (ServiceCo) could achieve a transfer price of its services. This is of particular interest, due to the growth of service firms that have rapidly increased and surpassed the manufacturing firms, as well as the dominant logic shifting towards services. However, the problem with this field of study is that transfer pricing with regards to the service industry, is a rather unexplored phenomenon in which the guid...
Gittelson, S; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Taroni, F
This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit
for the Nash equilibria. In this paper we show that, given a firm has chosen a particular profit function as its objective, profit maximization can be expressed in such a way that it depends on relative prices only. However, the choice of such an objective function need not be in the interest...... of the shareholders. This problem is overcome by relating the profits of a firm to the aggregate demand of its shareholders. We propose a definition of the objective of a firm, called maximization of shareholders' real wealth, which does not depend on any price normalizaion. Real wealth maxima are shown to exist...... under certain conditions. Moreover, we consider an oligopolistic market and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium in which each firm maximizes the real wealth of its shareholders. As a consequence, there is no need for absolute prices in the theory of imperfect competition...
Gan Shu San
Full Text Available Remanufacturing has become more prominent as a recovery process to mitigate the massive disposal of short life-cycle product at its end-of-use. However, remanufactured product is often perceived to be inferior to new product, and it has lower value in consumer’s willingness to pay. To increase the perceived quality of the remanufactured product, manufacturer offers a warranty, since one of the three roles possessed in warranty is being a signal to product reliability. This paper studies the pricing decisions and warranty level decision for new and remanufactured products in a closed-loop supply chain consists of a manufacturer and a retailer. The optimization modeling is performed under Stackelberg game with manufacturer as the leader. We found that higher expansion effectiveness coefficient would increase the supply chain profit. Also, there is an interval of demand’s speed of change, where the total profit would be at its highest. The optimum warranty level can be achieved regardless the initial warranty level set at the beginning of retailer’s optimization. Furthermore, the remanufactured product’s wholesale and retail prices are influenced by the expansion effectiveness coefficient.
Full Text Available We investigate a joint pricing and purchasing problem for the dual-channel newsvendor model with the assumption that only the mean and variance of the demand are known. The newsvendor in our model simultaneously distributes a single product through traditional retail and Internet. A robust optimization approach that maximizes the worst-case profit is adapted under the aforementioned conditions to model demand uncertainty and linear clearing functions that characterize the relationship between demand and prices. We obtain a close-form expression for the robust optimal policy. Illustrative simulations and numerical experiments show the effects of several parameters on the optimal policy and on newsvendor performance. Finally, we determine that the gap between newsvendor performance under demand certainty and uncertainty is minimal, which shows that the robust approach can significantly improve performance.
Masson, Renaud; Røpke, Stefan; Lehuédé, Fabien
for the PDPS and a branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm to solve it. The pricing sub-problem, an Elementary Shortest Path Problem with Resource Constraints (ESPPRC), is solved with a labeling algorithm enhanced with efficient dominance rules. Three families of valid inequalities are used to strengthen...
Tsai, Tsuen-Chiuan; Harasym, Peter H; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Donnon, Tyrone
The assessment of ethical problem solving in medicine has been controversial and challenging. The purposes of this study were: (i) to create a new instrument to measure doctors' decisions on and reasoning approach towards resolving ethical problems; (ii) to evaluate the scores generated by the new instrument for their reliability and validity, and (iii) to compare doctors' ethical reasoning abilities between countries and among medical students, residents and experts. This study used 15 clinical vignettes and the think-aloud method to identify the processes and components involved in ethical problem solving. Subjects included volunteer ethics experts, postgraduate Year 2 residents and pre-clerkship medical students. The interview data were coded using the instruments of the decision score and Ethical Reasoning Inventory (ERI). The ERI assessed the quality of ethical reasoning for a particular case (Part I) and for an individual globally across all the vignettes (Part II). There were 17 Canadian and 32 Taiwanese subjects. Based on the Canadian standard, the decision scores between Taiwanese and Canadian subjects differed significantly, but made no discrimination among the three levels of expertise. Scores on the ERI Parts I and II, which reflect doctors' reasoning quality, differed between countries and among different levels of expertise in Taiwan, providing evidence of construct validity. In addition, experts had a greater organised knowledge structure and considered more relevant variables in the process of arriving at ethical decisions than did residents or students. The reliability of ERI scores was 0.70-0.99 on Part I and 0.75-0.80 on Part II. Expertise in solving ethical problems could not be differentiated by the decisions made, but could be differentiated according to the reasoning used to make those decisions. The difference between Taiwanese and Canadian experts suggests that cultural considerations come into play in the decisions that are made in the
Tumewu, Ferdinand J.; Ruslim, Archi C.
Buying decision is the stage in which consumers make the decision or take an action whether to purchase a certain product or not. The purpose of this research is to analyze the simultaneous and partial effect of Advertising, Perceived Price and Brand Images on Consumer Buying Decision. The populations of this research are people who use ASUS smartphone with the sample size as many as 40 respondents. This research uses quantitative analyze by questionnaires and the Multiple Regression Analysis...
Rezanova, Natalia Jurjevna
the proposed model and solution method is suitable for solving in real-time. Recovery duties are generated as resource constrained paths in duty networks, and the set partitioning problem is solved with a linear programming based branch-and-price algorithm. Dynamic column generation and problem space expansion...... driver decision support system in their operational environment. Besides solving a particular optimization problem, this thesis contributes with a description of the railway planning process, tactical crew scheduling and the real-time dispatching solutions, taking a starting point in DSB S....... Rezanova NJ, Ryan DM. The train driver recovery problem–A set partitioning based model and solution method. Computers and Operations Research, in press, 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.cor.2009.03.023. 2. Clausen J, Larsen A, Larsen J, Rezanova NJ. Disruption management in the airline industry–Concepts, models...
Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi
This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product’s customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain. PMID:29649315
Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Asadi, Hashem; Sadeghian, Ramin; Sahebi, Hadi
This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product's customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain.
Mariagrazia Olivieri; Massimo Squillante; Viviana Ventre
Psychological evidences of impulsivity and false consensus effect lead results far from rationality. It is shown that impulsivitymodifies the discount function of each individual, and false consensus effect increases the degree of consensus in a multi-agent decision problem. Analyzing them together we note that in strategic interactions these two human factors involve choices which change equilibriums expected by rational individuals.
SULLIVAN,T.; ARMSTRONG,A.; OSLEEB,J.
This demonstration is focused on evaluating the utility of decision support software in addressing environmental problems. Three endpoints have been selected for evaluation: (1) Visualization, (2) Sample Optimization, and (3) Cost/Benefit Analysis. The definitions for these three areas in this program are listed.
Elbassioni, Khaled; Raman, Rajiv; Ray, Saurabh; Sitters, René
In the tollbooth problem on trees, we are given a tree T= (V,E) with n edges, and a set of m customers, each of whom is interested in purchasing a path on the graph. Each customer has a fixed budget, and the objective is to price the edges of T such that the total revenue made by selling the paths to the customers that can afford them is maximized. An important special case of this problem, known as the highway problem, is when T is restricted to be a line. For the tollbooth problem, we present an O(logn)-approximation, improving on the current best O(logm)-approximation. We also study a special case of the tollbooth problem, when all the paths that customers are interested in purchasing go towards a fixed root of T. In this case, we present an algorithm that returns a (1 - ɛ)-approximation, for any ɛ> 0, and runs in quasi-polynomial time. On the other hand, we rule out the existence of an FPTAS by showing that even for the line case, the problem is strongly NP-hard. Finally, we show that in the discount model, when we allow some items to be priced below zero to improve the overall profit, the problem becomes even APX-hard.
M. E. Haji Abadi
Full Text Available In this paper, the continuous optimal control theory is used to model and solve the maximum entropy problem for a continuous random variable. The maximum entropy principle provides a method to obtain least-biased probability density function (Pdf estimation. In this paper, to find a closed form solution for the maximum entropy problem with any number of moment constraints, the entropy is considered as a functional measure and the moment constraints are considered as the state equations. Therefore, the Pdf estimation problem can be reformulated as the optimal control problem. Finally, the proposed method is applied to estimate the Pdf of the hourly electricity prices of New England and Ontario electricity markets. Obtained results show the efficiency of the proposed method.
Sadigh, Gelareh; Carlos, Ruth C; Krupinski, Elizabeth A; Meltzer, Carolyn C; Duszak, Richard
The purpose of this article is to review the literature on communicating transparency in health care pricing, both overall and specifically for medical imaging. Focus is also placed on the imperatives and initiatives that will increasingly impact radiologists and their patients. Most Americans seek transparency in health care pricing, yet such discussions occur in fewer than half of patient encounters. Although price transparency tools can help decrease health care spending, most are used infrequently and most lack information about quality. Given the high costs associated with many imaging services, radiologists should be aware of such initiatives to optimize patient engagement and informed shared decision making.
Robotti, O. P.
Transfer, the use of acquired knowledge, skills and abilities across tasks and contexts, is a key and elusive goal of learning. Most evidence available in literature is based on a limited number of tasks, predominantly open-ended problems, game-like problems and taught school subjects (e.g. maths, physics, algebra). It is not obvious that findings from this work can be extended to the domain of decision making problems. This thesis, which aims to broaden the understanding of enhancing and lim...
Despite recent progress, the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power. Expectations of continuous reductions in production costs, typically underpin governments' policies for financial support. They often draw on the technology-focused versions of the Experience Curve model. This paper discusses how national-contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs, such as geographic, infrastructural, institutional, and resource factors. As technologies mature, and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally, sustained increases in production costs might be recorded, due to these nationally contextual factors, poorly accounted for in policy-making decisions for price support. The paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs. Based on this, it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate 'sources of changes'. The paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases, whenever possible. The application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in Spain during the past three decades. - Highlights: → Models, frameworks for policy-making on price support for renewable electricity production costs. → Policy instruments to help reduce production costs. → Limits to the influence of policies of production costs reductions.
Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to present a heuristic method for decision-making regarding an NP-hard scheduling problem with limitations related to tasks and the resources dependent on the current state of the process. The presented approach is based on the algebraic-logical meta-model (ALMM, which enables making collective decisions in successive process stages, not separately for individual objects or executors. Moreover, taking into account the limitations of the problem, it involves constructing only an acceptable solution and significantly reduces the amount of calculations. A general algorithm based on the presented method is composed of the following elements: preliminary analysis of the problem, techniques for the choice of decision at a given state, the pruning non-perspective trajectory, selection technique of the initial state for the trajectory final part, and the trajectory generation parameters modification. The paper includes applications of the presented approach to scheduling problems on unrelated parallel machines with a deadline and machine setup time dependent on the process state, where the relationship between tasks is defined by the graph. The article also presents the results of computational experiments.
This paper examines empirical issues of pricing and price dispersion within franchised restaurant and fast-food chains. Given the per se illegality of resale price maintenance (RPM) under current U.S. Antitrust laws, and the fact that franchised outlets are independent businesses under the law, franchisors must delegate the power to set prices to franchisees whereas corporate chains can control downstream prices directly. The issue I examine is whether it matters empirically who, between the ...
Vadde, S.; Allen, J. K.; Mistree, F.
In this paper an extension to the traditional compromise Decision Support Problem (DSP) formulation is presented. Bayesian statistics is used in the formulation to model uncertainties associated with the information being used. In an earlier paper a compromise DSP that accounts for uncertainty using fuzzy set theory was introduced. The Bayesian Decision Support Problem is described in this paper. The method for hierarchical design is demonstrated by using this formulation to design a portal frame. The results are discussed and comparisons are made with those obtained using the fuzzy DSP. Finally, the efficacy of incorporating Bayesian statistics into the traditional compromise DSP formulation is discussed and some pending research issues are described. Our emphasis in this paper is on the method rather than the results per se.
Full Text Available Cough in children: new decision of old problem the mechanism of development of cough, classification of its types and main reasons of it are described in this article. Special attention was given to the problem of diagnostics of chronic cough, to peculiarities of modern instrumental diagnostic methods and to principles of therapeutic tactics. The results of treatment with anti inflammatory medication fenspiride (eurespal are presented. Russian and foreign literature data and information from american guideline in cough treatment was used in this article.Key words: cough, children, fenspiride.
The aim of the present study is to offer a validated decision model for casino enterprises. The model enables those users to perform early detection of problem gamblers and fulfill their ethical duty of social cost minimization. To this end, the interpretation of casino customers' nonverbal communication is understood as a signal-processing problem. Indicators of problem gambling recommended by Delfabbro et al. (Identifying problem gamblers in gambling venues: final report, 2007) are combined with Viterbi algorithm into an interdisciplinary model that helps decoding signals emitted by casino customers. Model output consists of a historical path of mental states and cumulated social costs associated with a particular client. Groups of problem and non-problem gamblers were simulated to investigate the model's diagnostic capability and its cost minimization ability. Each group consisted of 26 subjects and was subsequently enlarged to 100 subjects. In approximately 95% of the cases, mental states were correctly decoded for problem gamblers. Statistical analysis using planned contrasts revealed that the model is relatively robust to the suppression of signals performed by casino clientele facing gambling problems as well as to misjudgments made by staff regarding the clients' mental states. Only if the last mentioned source of error occurs in a very pronounced manner, i.e. judgment is extremely faulty, cumulated social costs might be distorted.
Brandenburger, Adam; La Mura, Pierfrancesco
We study team decision problems where communication is not possible, but coordination among team members can be realized via signals in a shared environment. We consider a variety of decision problems that differ in what team members know about one another's actions and knowledge. For each type of decision problem, we investigate how different assumptions on the available signals affect team performance. Specifically, we consider the cases of perfectly correlated, i.i.d., and exchangeable classical signals, as well as the case of quantum signals. We find that, whereas in perfect-recall trees (Kuhn 1950 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 36, 570-576; Kuhn 1953 In Contributions to the theory of games, vol. II (eds H Kuhn, A Tucker), pp. 193-216) no type of signal improves performance, in imperfect-recall trees quantum signals may bring an improvement. Isbell (Isbell 1957 In Contributions to the theory of games, vol. III (eds M Drescher, A Tucker, P Wolfe), pp. 79-96) proved that, in non-Kuhn trees, classical i.i.d. signals may improve performance. We show that further improvement may be possible by use of classical exchangeable or quantum signals. We include an example of the effect of quantum signals in the context of high-frequency trading. © 2015 The Authors.
Gately, D; Kyle, J F; Fischer, D
A model of the world energy market that incorporates price expectations and lagged adjustments of demand and supply is used to examine implications of various price-paths that could be selected by OPEC. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to changes in functional specifications and certain parameter values, the authors discuss a variety of rule-of-thumb pricing strategies under which OPEC sets prices in response to available market signals. A strategy that is relatively cautious about further major price increases serves OPEC relatively well in comparison with other stategies, but there exists a real possibility of major, abrupt price increases within the next ten years.
Adcock, Mark R. A.
Quantum information processing is appealing due its ability to solve certain problems quantitatively faster than classical information processing. Most quantum algorithms have been studied in discretely parameterized systems, but many quantum systems are continuously parameterized. The field of quantum optics in particular has sophisticated techniques for manipulating continuously parameterized quantum states of light, but the lack of a code-state formalism has hindered the study of quantum algorithms in these systems. To address this situation, a code-state formalism for the solution of oracle decision problems in continuously-parameterized quantum systems is developed. Quantum information processing is appealing due its ability to solve certain problems quantitatively faster than classical information processing. Most quantum algorithms have been studied in discretely parameterized systems, but many quantum systems are continuously parameterized. The field of quantum optics in particular has sophisticated techniques for manipulating continuously parameterized quantum states of light, but the lack of a code-state formalism has hindered the study of quantum algorithms in these systems. To address this situation, a code-state formalism for the solution of oracle decision problems in continuously-parameterized quantum systems is developed. In the infinite-dimensional case, we study continuous-variable quantum algorithms for the solution of the Deutsch--Jozsa oracle decision problem implemented within a single harmonic-oscillator. Orthogonal states are used as the computational bases, and we show that, contrary to a previous claim in the literature, this implementation of quantum information processing has limitations due to a position-momentum trade-off of the Fourier transform. We further demonstrate that orthogonal encoding bases are not unique, and using the coherent states of the harmonic oscillator as the computational bases, our formalism enables quantifying
Kohl, Nate; Miikkulainen, Risto
Evolution of neural networks, or neuroevolution, has been a successful approach to many low-level control problems such as pole balancing, vehicle control, and collision warning. However, certain types of problems-such as those involving strategic decision-making-have remained difficult for neuroevolution to solve. This paper evaluates the hypothesis that such problems are difficult because they are fractured: The correct action varies discontinuously as the agent moves from state to state. A method for measuring fracture using the concept of function variation is proposed and, based on this concept, two methods for dealing with fracture are examined: neurons with local receptive fields, and refinement based on a cascaded network architecture. Experiments in several benchmark domains are performed to evaluate how different levels of fracture affect the performance of neuroevolution methods, demonstrating that these two modifications improve performance significantly. These results form a promising starting point for expanding neuroevolution to strategic tasks.
Given the high costs of innovative new drugs, most European countries have introduced policies for price control, in particular value-based pricing (VBP) and international reference pricing. The purpose of this study is to describe how profit-maximizing manufacturers would optimally adjust their launch sequence to these policies and how VBP countries may best respond. To decide about the launching sequence, a manufacturer must consider a tradeoff between price and sales volume in any given country as well as the effect of price in a VBP country on the price in international reference pricing countries. Based on the manufacturer's rationale, it is best for VBP countries in Europe to implicitly collude in the long term and set cost-effectiveness thresholds at the level of the lowest acceptable VBP country. This way, international reference pricing countries would also converge towards the lowest acceptable threshold in Europe.
van Essen, J Theresia; Hurink, Johann L; Hartholt, Woutske; van den Akker, Bernd J
Due to surgery duration variability and arrivals of emergency surgeries, the planned Operating Room (OR) schedule is disrupted throughout the day which may lead to a change in the start time of the elective surgeries. These changes may result in undesirable situations for patients, wards or other involved departments, and therefore, the OR schedule has to be adjusted. In this paper, we develop a decision support system (DSS) which assists the OR manager in this decision by providing the three best adjusted OR schedules. The system considers the preferences of all involved stakeholders and only evaluates the OR schedules that satisfy the imposed resource constraints. The decision rules used for this system are based on a thorough analysis of the OR rescheduling problem. We model this problem as an Integer Linear Program (ILP) which objective is to minimize the deviation from the preferences of the considered stakeholders. By applying this ILP to instances from practice, we determined that the given preferences mainly lead to (i) shifting a surgery and (ii) scheduling a break between two surgeries. By using these changes in the DSS, the performed simulation study shows that less surgeries are canceled and patients and wards are more satisfied, but also that the perceived workload of several departments increases to compensate this. The system can also be used to judge the acceptability of a proposed initial OR schedule.
This working paper examines some of the decision criteria suggested by theories on decision making under uncertainty. This is done by applying the criteria to the problem of global warming. It is shown that even if there was a benevolent planner who is both supranational and supra generational and even if he had a well defined inter generational welfare function, there are still remaining problems. The question asked is: If there were a benevolent planner, would he know the best climate policy for the world today. The main discussion abstracts from all other complications and focuses on the lack of certainty regarding impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and the effectiveness of policy. A very simplified example of a game against nature is constructed. It has two possible policy choices. One can either try to prevent global warming, or one can choose to do nothing. The future state of the world is uncertain and the chosen policy might affect the outcome in each state. The framing of the example is such that one should expect a policy of action to be preferred rather than a no-action policy, however this is not always the case. It is shown that the preferred policy choice is very much dependent on the choice of decision criterion, the magnitude of costs and of the framing. 3 tabs., 23 refs
Tjiptodjojo, Kartika Imasari
Price is one important component in marketing as well as in creating of customer value. Determination of an appropriate pricing strategy will not only affect consumers' perception of the level, but will bring the consumers to the point of purchase. Odd Price is one of the company's strategies to create the impression in the minds of consumer’s low price. This strategy is considered quite successful in influencing consumer psychology in deciding to buy the product or service offered by t...
Full Text Available Focusing on the first-best marginal cost pricing (MCP in a stochastic network with both travel demand uncertainty and stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes, this paper develops a perceived risk-based stochastic network marginal cost pricing (PRSN-MCP model. Numerical examples based on an integrated method combining the moment analysis approach, the fitting distribution method, and the reliability measures are also provided to demonstrate the importance and properties of the proposed model. The main finding is that ignoring the effect of travel time reliability and travelers’ perception errors may significantly reduce the performance of the first-best MCP tolls, especially under high travelers’ confidence and network congestion levels. The analysis result could also enhance our understanding of (1 the effect of stochastic perception error (SPE on the perceived travel time distribution and the components of road toll; (2 the effect of road toll on the actual travel time distribution and its reliability measures; (3 the effect of road toll on the total network travel time distribution and its statistics; and (4 the effect of travel demand level and the value of reliability (VoR level on the components of road toll.
Full Text Available Real-time pricing DSM (demand side management is widely used to dynamically change or shift the electricity consumption in the smart grid. In this paper, a game decision making scheme is proposed in the smart grid with DSM. The interaction between two retailers and their wholesaler is modeled as a two-stage game model. Considering the competition between two retailers, two different game models are developed in terms of the different action order between retailers and their wholesaler. Through analyzing the equilibrium revenues of the retailers for different situations we find that although the wholesaler expects to decentralize certain management powers to the retailers, it has retained the right to change the rules of the game and frequently reneged on the promises. More specifically, the law should ensure that any change of the revenue-sharing formula must go through certain legal procedures. Imposing legal restrictions on the wholesaler’s discretionary policy suggests that the time-inconsistency problem is mitigated. Numerical simulation shows the effectiveness of proposed scheme.
Shu San Gan
Full Text Available In this study we develop a model that optimizes the price for new and remanufactured short life-cycle products where demands are time-dependent and price sensitive. While there has been very few published works that attempt to model remanufacturing decisions for products with short life cycle, we believe that there are many situations where remanufacturing short life cycle products is rewarding economically as well as environmentally. The system that we model consists of a retailer, a manufacturer, and a collector of used product from the end customers. Two different scenarios are evaluated for the system. The first is the independent situation where each party attempts to maximize his/her own total profit and the second is the joint profit model where we optimize the combined total profit for all three members of the supply chain. Manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader in the independently optimized scenario, while in the other the intermediate prices are determined by coordinated pricing policy. The results suggest that (i reducing the price of new products during the decline phase does not give better profit for the whole system, (ii the total profit obtained from optimizing each player is lower than the total profit of the integrated model, and (iii speed of change in demand influences the robustness of the prices as well as the total profit gained.
Joseph G. Haubrich
The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.
Full Text Available This paper describes a new variant of harmony search algorithm which is inspired by a well-known item “elite decision making.” In the new algorithm, the good information captured in the current global best and the second best solutions can be well utilized to generate new solutions, following some probability rule. The generated new solution vector replaces the worst solution in the solution set, only if its fitness is better than that of the worst solution. The generating and updating steps and repeated until the near-optimal solution vector is obtained. Extensive computational comparisons are carried out by employing various standard benchmark optimization problems, including continuous design variables and integer variables minimization problems from the literature. The computational results show that the proposed new algorithm is competitive in finding solutions with the state-of-the-art harmony search variants.
Claudio Hoffmann Sampaio
Full Text Available This paper examines the influence of price bundling on decision to buy and consume soccer match tickets in Brazil, also testing the effect that pride and involvement play in purchase decisions. The marketing literature shows solid evidence that price bundling influences consumers decisions. Therefore, studies found the occurrence of a phenomenon called transaction decoupling which involves the level of coupling of costs and benefits of consumption situations and could be a strong motivational factor moderating in this relationship. In the sports context, another variable that may influence on fans is pride. This sentiment is the keystone of sports consumption and the fans are driven by it. Thereby, the involvement and pride variables are tested as possible moderating effects on soccer matches tickets consumption. We designed an experiment to test these relationships. Results indicate a direct effect of involvement on transaction decoupling, but not of price bundling or pride. People more highly involved with soccer game were more likely to attend matches due to their greater attention to irrecoverable costs, and experience more pain, regret, repurchase intention and sense of waste than less involved individuals. Performance does not seem to influence people’s decision-making process, as it is merely one of the antecedents in rooting for a team. The main contribution of this paper is show that coupling of transaction costs and benefits can be motivated by the intensity of the relationship between an individual and a sports objective.
Dan Li; Manuel Portugal Ferreira
Well understood in economics, accounting, finance, and legal research, transfer pricing has rarely been comprehensively explored in organization management literature. This paper explores some theoretical explanations of transfer pricing within multidivisional firms drawing insights from various organizational theories – primarily institutional theory, transaction cost economics, and social networks – to develop a conceptual model of transfer pricing. This model focuses on the nature of multi...
be considered. Hereby the order "Green Box-Yellow Box-Red Box" has to be taken into account. The direct costs of the obligatory benefits of the social insurance institutions of medical treatment (medical assistance, drugs, substitute assistance), institutional care (based on LKF points) and the medical measures of rehabilitation are to be set. Due to required transparency and traceability quantity and cost structure have to be listed separately. Prices of single items and resource usage in form of units of measurement have to be stated. Studies performed in other countries than Austria may be subject to different health care systems, general conditions, therapeutic alternatives and costs and have therefore to be adapted to Austrian conditions. It must not be disregarded that pharmacoeconomics as any other science comprises different opinions and basic approaches and that pharmacoeconomics is making progress all the time. However, considering their limitations with regard to the interpretation of the results, pharmacoeconomic studies are a key factor for assessing new pharmaceuticals and represent an important contribution to reimbursement and price decisions in Austria.
Evans, Gerald W.
This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).
Jordan, Debra J.
Reviews two research articles. Gratton and Taylor, using economic analysis and market research, found that consumers of leisure experiences complained about price increases, but continued consuming. They recommend discounts for those in need and price increases focusing on service quality. Greenleaf and Lehmann identified 11 reasons why people…
Energy-only markets are prone to the Resource Adequacy problem, i.e. the timely entry of new plant. The reason for this is that competitive energy-only markets struggle to be remunerative given reliability constraints and market price caps. Historically, Australia's 45,000 MW National Electricity Market has managed to navigate this well understood problem, albeit with government entities directly or indirectly responsible for a surprisingly large 73% of all new plant investments to 2007. But government involvement in direct investment has now ceased. So what will enable the industry to navigate the Resource Adequacy problem into the future? Quite simply, industrial organisation, the presence of merchant utilities with investment-grade credit ratings and setting any regulated retail prices or 'price to beat' with an LRMC floor.
Simshauser, Paul [Level 22, 101 Miller Street, North Sydney, NSW 2060 (Australia)
Energy-only markets are prone to the Resource Adequacy problem, i.e. the timely entry of new plant. The reason for this is that competitive energy-only markets struggle to be remunerative given reliability constraints and market price caps. Historically, Australia's 45,000 MW National Electricity Market has managed to navigate this well understood problem, albeit with government entities directly or indirectly responsible for a surprisingly large 73% of all new plant investments to 2007. But government involvement in direct investment has now ceased. So what will enable the industry to navigate the Resource Adequacy problem into the future? Quite simply, industrial organisation, the presence of merchant utilities with investment-grade credit ratings and setting any regulated retail prices or 'price to beat' with an LRMC floor. (author)
Simshauser, Paul, E-mail: email@example.com [Level 22, 101 Miller Street, North Sydney, NSW 2060 (Australia)
Energy-only markets are prone to the Resource Adequacy problem, i.e. the timely entry of new plant. The reason for this is that competitive energy-only markets struggle to be remunerative given reliability constraints and market price caps. Historically, Australia's 45,000 MW National Electricity Market has managed to navigate this well understood problem, albeit with government entities directly or indirectly responsible for a surprisingly large 73% of all new plant investments to 2007. But government involvement in direct investment has now ceased. So what will enable the industry to navigate the Resource Adequacy problem into the future? Quite simply, industrial organisation, the presence of merchant utilities with investment-grade credit ratings and setting any regulated retail prices or 'price to beat' with an LRMC floor.
Freddy Andrés Pérez
Full Text Available Deteriorating inventory models are used as decision support tools for managers primarily, although not exclusively, in the retail trade. The mathematical modeling of deteriorating items allows managers to analyze their inventory management systems to identify areas that can be improved and to measure the corresponding potential benefits. This study develops an enhanced deteriorating inventory model for optimizing the inventory control strategy of companies operating in sectors with deteriorating products. In contrast with previous studies, our model holistically accounts for the overall financial effect of a company’s policies on product price discounting and on inventory shortages while considering the time value of money (TVM. We aim to find the optimal replenishment strategy and the optimal price reductions that maximize the discounted profit function of this analytical model over a fixed planning horizon. To this end, we use an economic order quantity model to study the effects of the TVM and inflation. The model accounts for pre- and post-deterioration discounts on the selling price for non-instantaneous deteriorating products with the demand rate being a function of time, price-discounts and stock-keeping units. Shortages are allowed and partially backordered, depending on the waiting time until the next replenishment. Additionally, we consider the effect of discounts on the selling price when items have either an instant deterioration or a fixed lifetime. We propose five implementable solutions for obtaining the optimal values, and examine their performance. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the applicability of the models, and carry out a sensitivity analysis. The study reveals that accounting for TVM and inventory shortages is complex and time-consuming; nevertheless, we find that accounting for TVM and shortages can be valuable in terms of increasing the yields of companies. Finally, we provide some important
Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti
To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...
Durham, Catherine A; Bouma, Andrea; Meunier-Goddik, Lisbeth
Artisan cheese makers lack access to valid economic data to help them evaluate business opportunities and make important business decisions such as determining cheese pricing structure. The objective of this study was to utilize an economic model to evaluate the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return, and payback period for artisan cheese production at different annual production volumes. The model was also used to determine the minimum retail price necessary to ensure positive NPV for 5 different cheese types produced at 4 different production volumes. Milk type, cheese yield, and aging time all affected variable costs. However, aged cheeses required additional investment for aging space (which needs to be larger for longer aging times), as did lower yield cheeses (by requiring larger-volume equipment for pasteurization and milk handling). As the volume of milk required increased, switching from vat pasteurization to high-temperature, short-time pasteurization was necessary for low-yield cheeses before being required for high-yield cheeses, which causes an additional increase in investment costs. Because of these differences, high-moisture, fresh cow milk cheeses can be sold for about half the price of hard, aged goat milk cheeses at the largest production volume or for about two-thirds the price at the lowest production volume examined. For example, for the given model assumptions, at an annual production of 13,608kg of cheese (30,000 lb), a fresh cow milk mozzarella should be sold at a minimum retail price of $27.29/kg ($12.38/lb), whereas a goat milk Gouda needs a minimum retail price of $49.54/kg ($22.47/lb). Artisan cheese makers should carefully evaluate annual production volumes. Although larger production volumes decrease average fixed cost and improve production efficiency, production can reach volumes where it becomes necessary to sell through distributors. Because distributors might pay as little as 35% of retail price, the retail price needs
Uchoa, Eduardo; Fukasawa, Ricardo; Lysgaard, Jens
This paper presents a robust branch-cut-and-price algorithm for the Capacitated Minimum Spanning Tree Problem (CMST). The variables are associated to q-arbs, a structure that arises from a relaxation of the capacitated prize-collecting arborescence problem in order to make it solvable in pseudo......-polynomial time. Traditional inequalities over the arc formulation, like Capacity Cuts, are also used. Moreover, a novel feature is introduced in such kind of algorithms. Powerful new cuts expressed over a very large set of variables could be added, without increasing the complexity of the pricing subproblem...
Pasaoglu Kilanc, Guzay; Or, Ilhan
After the liberalization of the electricity generation industry, capacity expansion decisions are made by multiple self-oriented power companies. Unlike the centralized environment, decision-making of market participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight of the future market conditions (and competitor actions) that they will face. In such an environment, decision makers need to better understand long-term dynamics of the supply and demand sides of the power market. In this study, a system dynamics model is developed, to better understand and analyze the decentralized and competitive electricity market dynamics in the long run. The developed simulation model oversees a 20-year planning horizon; it includes a demand module, a capacity expansion module, a power generation module, an accounting and finance module, various competitors, a regulatory body and a bidding mechanism. Many features, singularities and tools of decentralized markets, such as; capacity withholding, enforced divestment, long-term contracts, price-elastic demands, incentives/disincentives, are also incorporated into the model. Public regulators and power companies are potential users of the model, for learning and decision support in policy design and strategic planning. Results of scenario analysis are presented to illustrate potential use of the model
MARTYN А. G.
Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. During the reform of land and property relations, has been carried out in Ukraine since the early 1990s, land plots and buildings received the status of goods, participate in economic turnover, have value and price. At the same time, not the most important prerequisite for the introduction in Ukraine of a mass valuation of real estate, which is intended to become a base for the fair taxation of land plots and other real estate, should be the systematic collection of mass data on the market prices of real estate. Constant changes, additions and improvements to the current normative monetary assessment of land do not give a real change in the methodology of assessment because it is based on regulatory indicators, there is a non-market based assessment. This approach does not give positive results and in the overwhelming majority we distort the evaluation indicators. As a result, there is a situation where in some places the price of a square meter is much lower than the market (real price, while in others it is much higher than the actual price. Thus, the transition to the use of monetary land valuation, which is based on mass market indicators (mass valuation, will get rid of the regulatory indicators by introducing a market valuation base. Purpose. Conduct an analysis of the current state of monetary valuation of land in Ukraine, form the main problems of the modern land assessment area and guide the ways to improve and transition to market valuation of land based on widespread use of mass data on market prices of real estate. Conclusion. The analysis of the current state of the monetary valuation of land shows a significant deviation of the evaluation results with real market prices, indicating the imperfection of the existing method of normative monetary evaluation. Mass evaluation in the short term can solve the problems with the reliability of the estimates and improve the system of land taxation.
Lin, Boqiang; Liu, Jianghua
The Chinese government canceled the preferential power pricing policies for energy intensive industries and imposed a reverse differential pricing policy in order to promote energy efficiency and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure. This article analyzes the principles of China's differential power pricing policy, the externalities of energy and the modified Ramsey pricing rule, and also points out the policy implications of China's differential power pricing policy. In our samples, we investigate eight power intensive products in the Henan province with respect to their power consumption per unit (power intensity), electricity cost, total cost, the electricity tariff and profit, in order to test the effects of the differential power pricing policy. The results show that the primary effect of the differential power pricing policy is that enterprises decrease their total costs and improve their productive efficiencies in advance, in anticipating a higher electricity tariff. -- Research highlights: → The article suggests a modified Ramsey pricing model where demand elasticity is replaced by elasticity of energy consumption and polluting elasticity to internalize the negative externality of high energy intensive industry. → The article assesses the effects of differential pricing policy through on-site survey of high energy intensive industries in Henan province and analyzes the reasons behind those effects. → The article presents the lessons and policy implications of implementing differential pricing policy aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction.
Dellaert, B.G.C.; Arentze, T.A.; Horeni, O.
Tourism research has long recognized the complexity of many decisions that tourists make and proposed models to describe and analyze tourist decision processes. This article complements this previous research by proposing a view that moves away from the process of making a decision and instead
Noori-daryan, Mahsa; Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Govindan, Kannan
decisions of a single-manufacturer/multiple-retailer supply chain where a composite contract combines quantity and freight discounts, and a free shipping contract is incorporated into the model. Here, the transportation modes of raw materials and finished products are subject to a limited capacity...... in terms of their capacities regarding distance from the manufacturing site. In the third scenario, products are sent to a central warehouse for fast ship to the retailers. Demand depends on selling price and shortage is not permitted. The leader–follower game is considered between the members of the chain...... so that the manufacturer is a follower and the retailers are the leaders. This research aims to optimize the chain total profit concerning the selling prices and order quantities of the manufacturer and the retailers under different transport methods and a composite incentive contract. To clarify...
Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn
-Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences...
A description is given of a class project concerned with examining a population problem and making some political decisions to solve it. A list of topics for the students to research as a basis for their decisions is provided. (DT)
Putra, Arya Willis Nugraha; Waluyo, Handoyo Djoko; Nugraha, Hari Susanta
This research was based on rapid automotive sector business development, especially automobile. Specifically, this research was discuss about automobile buying of Toyota Avanza brand at PT Nasmoco Majapahit Semarang during 2011 - 2014 keep have sale descending and it's sale target. If that case wasn't improve and solve, probably will presence problem for PT. Nasmoco Majapahit Semarang next.Aim of this research was to found product quality, brand image and price concerning automobile buying de...
Hollis, Aidan; Grootendorst, Paul
Alberta, quickly followed by other Canadian provinces, has introduced a new pricing model for generic drugs, in which prices are inversely related to the number of generic manufacturers of the drug. This paper examines the rationale for the new policy. Copyright © 2015 Longwoods Publishing.
Konoplya, E.F.; Rolevich, I.V.
In the publication are summarized the basic results of the researches executed in 1997 in the framework of the 'Scientific maintenance of the decision of problems of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences' of the State program of Republic of Belarus for minimization and overcoming of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences on 1996-2000 on the following directions: dose monitoring of the population, estimation and forecast of both collective irradiation dozes and risks of radiation induced diseases; development and ground of the measures for increase of radiation protection of the population of Belarus during of the reducing period after the Chernobyl accident; study of influence of radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident on health of people, development of methods and means of diagnostics, treatment and preventive maintenance of diseases for various categories of the victims; optimisation of the system of measures for preservation of health of the victim population and development of ways for increase of it effectiveness; creation of the effective both prophylactic means and food additives for treatment and rehabilitation of the persons having suffered after the Chernobyl accident; development of complex system of an estimation and decision-making on problems of radiation protection of the population living on contaminated territories; development and optimization of a complex of measures for effective land use and decrease of radioactive contamination of agricultural production in order to reduce irradiation dozes of the population; development of complex technologies and means of decontamination, treatment and burial of radioactive wastes; study of the radioisotopes behaviour dynamics in environment (air, water, ground), ecosystems and populated areas; optimization of the system of radiation ecological monitoring in the republic and scientific methodical ways of it fulfilling; study of effects of low doze irradiation and combined influences, search
Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...
Rozen, Victor V.; Zhitomirski, Grigori
A structure called a decision making problem is considered. The set of outcomes (consequences) is partially ordered according to the decision maker's preferences. The problem is how these preferences affect a decision maker to prefer one of his strategies (or acts) to another, i.e. it is to describe so called derived preference relations. This problem is formalized by using category theory approach and reduced to a pure algebraical question. An effective method is suggested to build all reaso...
Guillot, R.; Ford, N. ed.
Over a three-year period covering May 1998 to May 2001, the average price of gasoline in Quebec slowly increased from 57.1 cent per litre to 82.6 cent per litre. This 45 per cent increase in the price of gasoline worried consumers and had an effect on commercial and industrial operations throughout the province. This situation prompted the Commission de l'economie et du travail (Commission on Labour and the Economy) to initiate a mandate to examine the problem. In October 2001, experts representing energy and taxation sectors were consulted and presentations made by 17 people and organizations. The Ministre des Ressources Naturelles (Minister of Natural Resources) and the President de la Regie de l'Energie were heard in a public consultation forum. In the first part of the document, the authors explained the mechanism by which the price of gasoline and its various components are determined, identified the elements responsible for the increases in prices, and compare the prices in the different parts of the province. In part two, the responsibilities and powers of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Regie de l'Energie with regard to petroleum products were examined. Part three described the opinions expressed and proposed recommendations obtained during the public consultation process and they were grouped under four headings: taxation, competition, consumer information, and energy savings. The final part of the document presented the recommendations of the Commission on Labour and the Economy. 15 refs., 5 tabs
Full Text Available This article studies a supply chain composed of a manufacturer and two competing retailers. The manufacturer produces two substitutable products and offers respective service levels to customers who buy one of the two products. Each retailer can only order one kind of product from the manufacturer, and then sell them to the market at a certain sale price. The demands for two products are influenced not only by the service levels the manufacturer provides, but also the sales prices of the two products. Furthermore, we investigate the equilibrium behavior of members in the supply chain with the aid of the Stackelberg game, and discover a number of insights concerning some important parameters. Finally, Numerical analysis is presented to validate our theoretical results and compare channel performances.
Full Text Available Under dual-channel structure, the free-riding behavior based on different service levels between online channel and offline channel cannot be avoided, which would lead to channel unfairness. This study implies that the dual-channel supply chain is built up by online channel controlled by manufacturer and traditional channel controlled by retailer, respectively. Under this channel structure, we rebuild the linear demand function considering free-riding behavior and modify the pricing model based on channel fairness. Then the influences of fair factor and free-riding behavior on manufacturer and retailer pricing and performance are discussed. Finally, we propose some numerical analysis to provide some valuable recommendations for manufacturer and retailer improving channel management performance.
Compernolle, T.; Welkenhuysen, K.; Huisman, K.; Piessens, K.; Kort, P.
Although CO_2 Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered a key solution for CO_2 emission mitigation, it is currently not economically feasible. CO_2 enhanced oil recovery can play a significant role in stimulating CCS deployment because CO_2 is used to extract additional quantities of oil. This study analyzes the investment decision of both a carbon emitting source and an oil company separately by adopting a real options approach. It is shown that when uncertainty is integrated in the economic analysis, CO_2 and oil price threshold levels at which investments in CO_2 capture and enhanced oil recovery will take place, are higher than when a net present value approach is adopted. We also demonstrate that a tax on CO_2 instead of an emission trading system results in a lower investment threshold level for the investment in the CO_2 capture unit. Furthermore, we determine a minimum CO_2 selling price between the two firms and show that CO_2-EOR has the potential to pull CCS into the market by providing an additional revenue on the capture plant. However, when CO_2 permit prices are above an identifiable level, the EU ETS does not necessarily result in the adoption of CCS and stimulates oil production. - Highlights: • Real options theory is applied to study how uncertainty affects CO2EOR investments. • Compared to an NPV approach, investment threshold levels are higher. • A tax on CO2 would result in lower investment threshold levels compared to EUETS. • A minimum CO2 selling price is determined • The CO2 needed for enhanced oil recovery is not necessarily a cost.
Sam Weckx; Reinhilde D'hulst; Johan Driesen
In this paper, a locational marginal pricing algorithm is proposed to control the voltage in unbalanced distribution grids. The increasing amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation installed in the grid may cause the voltage to rise to unacceptable levels during periods of low consumption. With locational prices, the distribution system operator can steer the reactive power consumption and active power curtailment of PV panels to guarantee a safe network operation. Flexible loads also respond to...
Percebois, J.; Sauvage, E.; Valette, M.; Liens, G.; Lu, L.
A debate was organized by the French gas association (AFG) on December 2, 2008 around the question of: is it opportune to maintain the present day system of indexing of gas prices with respect to petroleum product prices? Even if the basic reasons justifying this indexing system have changed with time, and despite the recent hostility of the European Commission, this practice remains the standard for the huge majority of gas transactions. Does this indexing system favour the producers? In spite of their apparent interest, do the consumers really wish to replace indexed prices by market prices in a context where strong uncertainties and tensions on gas markets cannot be excluded? Is the present day status quo the result of the situation imposed by producers or is it the consequences of contradictory anticipations between sellers and buyers? Will gas prices remain indexed on petroleum prices in the future and if not, what would be the possible alternatives? These are the questions debated by the participants and reported in this paper with the questions from the audience. (J.S.)
The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...
Brevers, Damien; Cleeremans, Axel; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Bechara, Antoine; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier
The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between problem gambling severity and decision-making situations that vary in two degrees of uncertainty (probability of outcome is known: decision-making under risk; probability of outcome is unknown: decision-making under ambiguity). For
Weed, L L; Zimny, N J
The information tool to aid us in making the clinical decisions discussed in this presentation is called the PKC. Our goal with patients should be to couple the knowledge of the unique patient to the knowledge in the literature and get the best possible match. This approach requires combinatorial versus probabilistic thinking. In the real world, ideal matches are not found. Therefore, it is critical to exhaust the patient's uniqueness first and only then use probabilities to settle further uncertainties. It is an error to teach people how to deal with uncertainty instead of teaching them to clean up a great deal of the uncertainty first. Patients must be involved in this endeavor. In essence, they have a PhD in their own uniqueness, and it is this uniqueness that is very powerful in solving complex problems. This method of patient evaluation and management cannot be used with the unaided mind. It requires new and powerful information tools like the PKC. All information that is relevant to a problem should be included in the coupler. It should encompass differing points of view, and the rationale should be made explicit to clinician and patient alike. When complete, the coupler should represent an interdisciplinary compilation of questions and tests that are expected to be collected every time in the clinic for the type of problem the coupler represents. This method will provide a basis for quality control because the contents of the coupler now have defined what we expect to occur in every patient encounter.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
We investigate implementations of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) scheme of playing quantum games beyond strategic games. The scope of our research is decision problems, i.e. one-player extensive games. The research is based on the examination of their features when the decision problems are carried out via the EWL protocol. We prove that unitary operators can be adapted to play the role of strategies in decision problems with imperfect recall. Furthermore, we prove that unitary operators provide the decision maker with possibilities that are inaccessible for classical strategies.
Frackiewicz, Piotr, E-mail: P.Frackiewicz@impan.gov.pl [Institute of Mathematics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-956 Warsaw (Poland)
We investigate implementations of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) scheme of playing quantum games beyond strategic games. The scope of our research is decision problems, i.e. one-player extensive games. The research is based on the examination of their features when the decision problems are carried out via the EWL protocol. We prove that unitary operators can be adapted to play the role of strategies in decision problems with imperfect recall. Furthermore, we prove that unitary operators provide the decision maker with possibilities that are inaccessible for classical strategies.
Uchoa, Eduardo; Fukasawa, Ricardo; Lysgaard, Jens
-polynomial time. Traditional inequalities over the arc formulation, like Capacity Cuts, are also used. Moreover, a novel feature is introduced in such kind of algorithms: powerful new cuts expressed over a very large set of variables are added, without increasing the complexity of the pricing subproblem......This paper presents a robust branch-cut-and-price algorithm for the Capacitated Minimum Spanning Tree Problem (CMST). The variables are associated to q-arbs, a structure that arises from a relaxation of the capacitated prize-collecting arborescence problem in order to make it solvable in pseudo...... or the size of the LPs that are actually solved. Computational results on benchmark instances from the OR-Library show very significant improvements over previous algorithms. Several open instances could be solved to optimality....
Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries
Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in
Full Text Available This paper studies a single-period supply chain with a buy-back contract under a Stackelberg game model, in which the supplier (leader decides on the wholesale price, and the retailer (follower responds to determine the retail price and the order quantity. We analytically investigate the decentralized retailer’s optimal decision. Our results demonstrate that the retailer has a unique optimal simultaneous decision on the retail price and the order quantity, under a mild restriction on the demand distribution. Moreover, as it can be shown that the decentralized supply chain facing price-sensitive random demand cannot be coordinated with buy-back contract, we propose a scheme for the system to achieve Pareto-improvement. Theoretical analysis suggests that there exists a unique Pareto-equilibrium for the supply chain. In particular, when the Pareto-equilibrium is reached, the supply chain is coordinated. Numerical experiments confirm our results.
Summary Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in practice. The tremendous progress in hard- and software of the past decades was an important gateway for developing computerized systems that are able to support decision making on different levels within enterprises. T...
Bouchard , Bruno; Dang , Ngoc Minh
International audience; We consider a singular with state constraints version of the stochastic target problems studied in Soner and Touzi (2002) and more recently Bouchard, Elie and Touzi (2008), among others. This provides a general framework for the pricing of contingent claims under risk constraints. Our extended version perfectly suits to market models with proportional transaction costs and to order book liquidation issues. Our main result is a PDE characterization of the associated pri...
Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia
A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation
After having briefly evoked the evolution of oil prices until April 2010, the author explains these variations in relationship with a market logics, notably by an unbalanced rate between production and consumption as it has been noticed in different countries and by different institutions, and by a slowing down of the supply rate. In the next part, the author addresses and comments the influence of the geopolitical context, or the political logics of oil price, by discussing the prevailing importance of the Middle-East in terms of oil reserves and production, and the impact of geopolitical tensions and events on oil price since the 1970's. The author finally outlines how lower geopolitical tensions would result in a better energy security
Wittmann-Price, Ruth A; Price, Samuel W
The original Emancipated Decision-Making (EDM) scale was revised to test 3 subconcepts (flexible environment, personal knowledge, and awareness of social norms) of an emancipated decision-making process. The original EDM scale was significantly related to the Satisfaction with Decision (SWD) scale in two separate studies (r = 0.79, r = 0.59). Two of the original 5 subconcepts showed a lack of contribution. The third study (N = 50) had good total scale reliability (r = 0.89). The revised EDM (EDM-r) scale was then leveled to the SWD scores and quantified into 2 categories and the subscales for the 3 subconcepts were reanalyzed for reliability and scale-if-item contribution. The final EDM-r is a generically worded, 20-item, 3-subscale instrument with good total and individual subscale reliability.
In this thesis, I studied sequential decision making problems, with a focus on the unit commitment problem. Traditionally solved by dynamic programming methods, this problem is still a challenge, due to its high dimension and to the sacrifices made on the accuracy of the model to apply state of the art methods. I investigated on the applicability of Monte Carlo Tree Search methods for this problem, and other problems that are single player, stochastic and continuous sequential decision making problems. In doing so, I obtained a consistent and anytime algorithm, that can easily be combined with existing strong heuristic solvers. (author)
Groote Schaarsberg, M.
Three chapters of this dissertation deal with three different types of interactive purchasing situations, in which multiple buying organizations interact with similar (or possibly the same) suppliers for the procurement of the same commodity. Decisions to be made in interactive purchasing concern if
Miller, Paul M.; Fagley, Nancy S.; Casella, Nancy E.
Research indicates people's decisions can sometimes be influenced by seemingly trivial differences in the "framing" (i.e., wording) of alternative options. The tendency to prefer risk averse options when framed positively and risky options when framed negatively is known as the framing effect. The current study examined the susceptibility of…
Drechsler, Salome; Leeflang, Peter S. H.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Natter, Martin
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to compare the impact of different multi-unit promotions (MUPs) and a single-unit promotion (SUP) on store-level sales and consumer-level purchase probability and quantity decision. Design/methodology/approach - The paper combines two empirical studies. Study 1
The primary purpose of this dissertation was to explore the nature, purposes, benefits, and barriers of establishing a currency basket for OPEC as an alternative to the use the dollar for international trade in oil. The study included the construction and evaluation of three alternative currency baskets and the evaluation of two other baskets for the protection of the real price of OPEC oil from foreign-exchange fluctuations between 1971 and 1980. A secondary objective was to assess the inflationary impact on the real price of oil. Finally, the purpose was to evaluate the changes of the terms of trade of OPEC during the same period. The findings of the research are as follows: During 1971-1980, inflation and the relative weakness of the dollar have reduced the real price of oil to OPEC. In spite of this, the terms of trade of OPEC have substantially improved. This was because OPEC increased its oil prices much more than sufficient to compensate for inflation and the fluctuation of foreign-exchange rates.
Fukasawa, R.; Longo, H.; Lysgaard, Jens
with a traditional Lagrangean relaxation over q-routes, the other defined by bound, degree and capacity constraints. This is equivalent to a linear program with exponentially many variables and constraints that can lead to lower bounds that are superior to those given by previous methods. The resulting branch-and-cut-and-price...
R. P. Simonyants
In Russia, the problems of engineering education are connected with political and economic upheavals of the late last century. At the same time, some leading engineering universities in Russia, such as the Bauman Moscow State Technical University (BMSTU) were resistant to the damaging effects of the crisis. But the methodology and experience of their effective work are insufficiently known.The problems of international engineering school development are also known. The first UNESCO World Repo...
Hansen, Anders Dohn; Kolind, Esben; Clausen, Jens
In this paper, we consider the Manpower Allocation Problem with Time Windows, Job-Teaming Constraints and a limited number of teams (m-MAPTWTC). Given a set of teams and a set of tasks, the problem is to assign to each team a sequential order of tasks to maximize the total number of assigned tasks....... Both teams and tasks may be restricted by time windows outside which operation is not possible. Some tasks require cooperation between teams, and all teams cooperating must initiate execution simultaneously. We present an IP-model for the problem, which is decomposed using Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition....... The problem is solved by column generation in a Branch-and-Price framework. Simultaneous execution of tasks is enforced by the branching scheme. To test the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, 12 realistic test instances are introduced. The algorithm is able to find the optimal solution in 11 of the test...
Hansen, Anders Dohn; Kolind, Esben; Clausen, Jens
In this paper, we consider the Manpower Allocation Problem with Time Windows, Job-Teaming Constraints and a limited number of teams (m-MAPTWTC). Given a set of teams and a set of tasks, the problem is to assign to each team a sequential order of tasks to maximize the total number of assigned tasks....... Both teams and tasks may be restricted by time windows outside which operation is not possible. Some tasks require cooperation between teams, and all teams cooperating must initiate execution simultaneously. We present an IP-model for the problem, which is decomposed using Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition....... The problem is solved by column generation in a Branch-and-Price framework. Simultaneous execution of tasks is enforced by the branching scheme. To test the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, 12 realistic test instances are introduced. The algorithm is able to find the optimal solution in 11 of the test...
In this dissertation I will start with the broad research question of what does problem solving in upper division physics look like? My focus in this study is on students' problem solving in physics theory courses. Some mathematical formalisms are common across all physics core courses such as using the process of separation of variables, doing Taylor series, or using the orthogonality properties of mathematical functions to set terms equal to zero. However, there are slight differences in their use of these mathematical formalisms across different courses, possibly because of how students map different physical systems to these processes. Thus, my first main research question aims to answer how students perform these recurring processes across upper division physics courses. I break this broad question into three particular research questions: What knowledge pieces do students use to make connections between physics and procedural math? How do students use their knowledge pieces coherently to provide reasoning strategies in estimation problems? How do students look ahead into the problem to read the information out of the physical scenario to align their use of math in physics? Building on the previous body of the literature, I will use the theory family of Knowledge in Pieces and provide evidence to expand this theoretical foundation. I will compare my study with previous studies and provide suggestions on how to generalize these theory expansions for future use. My experimental data mostly come from video-based classroom data. Students in groups of 2-4 students solve in-class problems in quantum mechanics and electromagnetic fields 1 courses collaboratively. In addition, I will analyze clinical interviews to demonstrate how a single case study student plays an epistemic game to estimate the total energy in a hurricane. My second research question is more focused on a particular instructional context. How do students frame problem solving in quantum mechanics? I
So, M.C.; Thomas, L.C.; Seow, H-V; Mues, C.
In consumer lending the traditional approach is to develop a credit scorecard which ranks borrowers according to their risk of defaulting. Bads have a high risk of default and Goods have a low risk. To maximise the profitability of credit card customers, a second classification between revolvers and transactors becomes important. Building a transactor/revolver scorecard together with a Good/Bad scorecard over the revolvers, gives rise to a risk decision system whose ranking of risk is compara...
Hester, Patrick T
This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.
Kolev, Bogomil Velikov
The metallurgical sciences (material science) are closest to the Geology. Therefore there are close to the ultimate explanation and diagnostics of the natural processes and phenomena in the Earth and in the Universe. They are called upon the other sciences (industries) and society to present the general way's for solution, of the global problems including ecological ones. By solution of these problems always has to be take account of the fact that the Earth is a cosmic body on which surface 'Terrestrial' and 'Space' industries and technologies are developed. (Original)
To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off (SWT) method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth trade-off (DWT) method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker's solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.
Pudil, Pavel; Somol, Petr
Roč. 16, č. 4 (2008), s. 37-55 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : variable selection * decision making Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/RO/pudil-identifying%20the%20most%20informative%20variables%20for%20decision- making %20problems%20a%20survey%20of%20recent%20approaches%20and%20accompanying%20problems.pdf
Persson, Ulf; Willis, Michael; Odegaard, Knut
Value-based pricing (VBP) is a method of setting prices for products based on perceived benefits to the consumer. When information is symmetric and freely available and agency is perfect, VBP is efficient and desirable. Because of substantial information asymmetries, medical insurance distortions, and the prescribing monopoly of physicians, VBP is rare for prescription drugs, though a number of countries have recently moved in this direction. Because the potential benefits can be sizable, it is high time for a review of actual VBP-based decision-making in practice. Sweden, with its pharmaceutical benefits board (TLV), was an early adopter of VBP decision-making. We illustrate actual decision-making, thus, using the case of Acomplia for the treatment of obesity in Sweden, with and without the presence of co-morbid conditions. This example has a number of features that will be useful in illustrating the strengths and weaknesses of VBP in actual practice, including multiple indications, a need for not just one but two economic simulation models, considerable sub-group analysis, and requirements for additional evidence development. TLV concluded, in 2006, that Acomplia was cost-effective for patients with a body mass index (BMI) exceeding 35 kg/m2 and patients with a BMI exceeding 28 kg/m2 and either dyslipidemia or type 2 diabetes. Because of uncertainty in some of the underlying assumptions, reimbursement was granted only until 31 December 2008, at which time the manufacturer would be required to submit additional documentation of the long-term effects and cost-effectiveness in order to obtain continued reimbursement. Deciding on reimbursement coverage for pharmaceutical products is difficult. Ex ante VBP assessment is a form of risk sharing, which has been used by TLV to speed up reimbursement and dispersion of effective new drugs despite uncertainty in their true cost-effectiveness. Manufacturers are often asked in return to generate additional health economic
Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C
To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.
Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.
The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.
Hilbig, Benjamin E; Thielmann, Isabel
Most approaches to dishonest behavior emphasize the importance of corresponding payoffs, typically implying that dishonesty might increase with increasing incentives. However, prior evidence does not appear to confirm this intuition. However, extant findings are based on relatively small payoffs, the potential effects of which are solely analyzed across participants. In two experiments, we used different multi-trial die-rolling paradigms designed to investigate dishonesty at the individual level (i.e., within participants) and as a function of the payoffs at stake - implementing substantial incentives exceeding 100€. Results show that incentive sizes indeed matter for ethical decision making, though primarily for two subsets of "corruptible individuals" (who cheat more the more they are offered) and "small sinners" (who tend to cheat less as the potential payoffs increase). Others ("brazen liars") are willing to cheat for practically any non-zero incentive whereas still others ("honest individuals") do not cheat at all, even for large payoffs. By implication, the influence of payoff magnitude on ethical decision making is often obscured when analyzed across participants and with insufficiently tempting payoffs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Vernon, David; Meier, Alan
Energy related Principal–Agent (PA) problems cause inefficient combinations of investment, operating costs, and usage behavior. The complex market structure of the trucking industry contributes to split incentives because entities responsible for investments in energy efficiency do not always pay fuel costs and drivers are often not rewarded for fuel-efficient operation. Some contractual relationships exist in the trucking industry that hinder responses to fuel price signals. Up to 91% of total trucking fuel consumption in the U.S. is affected by “usage” PA problems, where the driver does not pay fuel costs and lacks incentive for fuel saving operation. Approximately 23% of trailers are exposed to an “efficiency problem” when owners of rented trailers do not pay fuel costs and therefore have little incentive to invest in efficiency upgrades such as improved trailer aerodynamics and reduced tire rolling resistance. This study shows that PA problems have the potential to significantly increase fuel consumption through avoided investments, insufficient maintenance, and fuel-wasting practices. Further research into the causes and effects of PA problems can shape policies to promote better alignment of costs and benefits, leading to reduced fuel use and carbon emissions. - Highlights: ► We identify and quantify principal agent market failures in the trucking industry. ► Up to 91% of truck fuel consumption is exposed to a usage principal–agent market failure. ► Twenty-three percent of trailers are exposed to an efficiency principal–agent market failure. ► These market failures at least partially insulate key decision makers from fuel price signals.
Lu, Zhijian; Shao, Shuai
Highlights: • An ESCO optimal decision model considering governmental subsidies is proposed. • Optimal price and performance level are deduced via a two-stage model. • Demand, profit, and performance level increase with increasing subsidies. • ESCO’s market strategy should firstly focus on high energy consumption industries. • Governmental subsidies standard in different industries should be differentiated. - Abstract: Government subsidies generally play a crucial role in pricing and the choice of performance levels in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC). However, the existing studies pay little attention to how the Energy Service Company (ESCO) prices and chooses performance levels for EPC with government subsidies. To fill such a gap, we propose a joint optimal decision model of pricing and performance level in EPC considering government subsidies. The optimization of the model is achieved via a two-stage process. At the first stage, given a performance level, ESCOs choose the best price; and at the second stage, ESCOs choose the optimal performance level for the optimal price. Furthermore, we carry out a numerical analysis to illuminate such an optimal decision mechanism. The results show that both price sensitivity and performance level sensitivity have significant effects on the choice of performance levels with government subsidies. Government subsidies can induce higher performance levels of EPC, the demand for EPC, and the profit of ESCO. We suggest that ESCO’s market strategy should firstly focus on high energy consumption industries with government subsidies and that government subsidies standard adopted in different industries should be differentiated according to the market characteristics and energy efficiency levels of various industries.
Full Text Available Traditional Discounted Utility Model assumes an exponential delay discount function, with a constant discount rate: this implies dynamic consistency and stationary intertemporal preferences. Contrary to the normative setting, decision neuroscience stresses a lack of rationality, i.e., inconsistency, in some intertemporal choice behaviors. We deal with both models are dealt with in the framework of some relevant decision problems.
Okx, J.P.; Stein, A.
Remediation of a contaminated site usually requires costly actions, and several clean-up and sampling strategies may have to be compared by those involved in the decision-making process. In this paper several common environmental pollution problems have been addressed by using probabilistic decision
Lee, Chwee Beng; Koh, Noi Keng; Cai, Xin Le; Quek, Choon Lang
The purpose of this study was to understand how children use meta-cognition in their everyday problem-solving, particularly making monetary decisions. A particular focus was to identify components of meta-cognition, such as regulation of cognition and knowledge of cognition observed in children's monetary decision-making process, the roles of…
A method for consensus measuring in a group decision problem is presented for the multiple criteria case. The decision process is supposed to be carried out according to Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process, and hence using pairwise comparison among the alternatives. Using a suitable distance between the experts' judgements, a scale transformation is proposed which allows a fuzzy interpretation of the problem and the definition of a consensus measure by means of fuzzy tools as linguistic quanti...
This paper presents a heuristic polarity decision-making algorithm for solving Boolean satisfiability (SAT). The algorithm inherits many features of the current state-of-the-art SAT solvers, such as fast BCP, clause recording, restarts, etc. In addition, a preconditioning step that calculates the polarities of variables according to the cover distribution of Karnaugh map is introduced into DPLL procedure, which greatly reduces the number of conflicts in the search process. The proposed approach is implemented as a SAT solver named DiffSat. Experiments show that DiffSat can solve many "real-life" instances in a reasonable time while the best existing SAT solvers, such as Zchaff and MiniSat, cannot. In particular, DiffSat can solve every instance of Bart benchmark suite in less than 0.03 s while Zchaff and MiniSat fail under a 900 s time limit. Furthermore, DiffSat even outperforms the outstanding incomplete algorithm DLM in some instances.
In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...
R. P. Simonyants
Full Text Available In Russia, the problems of engineering education are connected with political and economic upheavals of the late last century. At the same time, some leading engineering universities in Russia, such as the Bauman Moscow State Technical University (BMSTU were resistant to the damaging effects of the crisis. But the methodology and experience of their effective work are insufficiently known.The problems of international engineering school development are also known. The first UNESCO World Report on Engineering (2010 assesses the state of engineering education as follows: worldwide shortage of engineers is a threat to the development of society.Based on the analysis of the current state of engineering education in the world and tendencies of development an urgency of its modernization with the focus on the enhancement of practical component has been shown.Topical problems associated with innovations and modernization in engineering education in the field of aerospace technology were discussed at the first international forum, which was held in Beijing Beyhanskom University (BUAA on 8 - 9 September 2012. The author attended this forum and presented his impressions of its work. It was noted that the role of Russia in the global process to form and develop engineering education is ignored. This opinion sounded, generally, in all speakers' reports, apart from ours.The President BUAA, a Professor Jinpeng Huai, and a Professor Qiushi Li. talked about the problems of building the engineering education system in China. It was emphasized that in China a study of engineering education techniques was motivated by the fact that quality assurance of engineering education at U.S. universities does not meet requirements.Attention is drawn to Dr. David Wisler's report who is a representative of the U.S. aerospace industry (General Electric Aviation corporation, actively promoting networking technology "initiative CDIO».The assessment of the engineering education
A. P. Preobrazhensky
Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of scattering of electromagnetic waves in different diffraction structures. The solution of the scattering problem is based on the method of integral equations. On diagrams of backscattering at various frequencies of the incident wave, the decision about the form of the object is carried out.
Udink ten Cate, A.J.
This paper treats the selection of controller gains of a servo system as a multiple-criteria decision problem. In contrast to the usual optimization-based approaches to computer-aided design, inequality constraints are included in the problem as unconstrained objectives. This considerably simplifies
R.P. Faber (Riemer)
textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.
Williams, K. A.; Partridge, E. C., III
Originally envisioned as a means to integrate the many systems found throughout the government, the general mission of the NCS continues to be to ensure the survivability of communications during and subsequent to any national emergency. In order to accomplish this mission the NCS is an arrangement of heterogeneous telecommunications systems which are provided by their sponsor Federal agencies. The physical components of Federal telecommunications systems and networks include telephone and digital data switching facilities and primary common user communications centers; Special purpose local delivery message switching and exchange facilities; Government owned or leased radio systems; Technical control facilities which are under exclusive control of a government agency. This thesis describes the logical design of a proposed decision support system for use by the National Communications System in forecasting technology, prices, and costs. It is general in nature and only includes those forecasting models which are suitable for computer implementation. Because it is a logical design it can be coded and applied in many different hardware and/or software configurations.
Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper draws on the results of previous studies recoverability of creditor’s claims, where it was research from debtor’s point of view and his/her debts on the Czech Republic financial market. The company, which fell into a bankruptcy hearing, has several legislatively supported options how to deal with this situation and repay creditors money. Each of the options has been specified as a variant of a decisionmaking tree. This paper is focused on third option of evaluation – The reconciliation. The heuristic generates all missing information items. The result is then focused on the comparison and evaluation of the best ways to repay the debt, also including solution for the future continuation of the company currently in liquidation and quantification of percentage refund of creditors claim. A realistic case study is presented in full details. Further introduction of decision making with uncerteinties in insolvency proceedings. Methodology/methods: Solving within decision tree with partially ignorance of probability using reconciliation. Scientific aim: Comparison and evaluation of the best ways to repay the debt, also including solution for the future continuation of the company currently in liquidation and quantification of percentage refund of creditors claim. Findings: Predictions of future actions in dealing with insolvency act and bankruptcy hearing, quicker and more effective agreeing on compromises among all creditors and debtor. Conclusions: Finding a best way and solution of repayment and avoiding of termination for both of interested parties (creditor and debtor.
Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A
Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.
Vasconcellos, Eduardo Charles
Vasconcellos et al  study the efficiency of 13 diferente decision tree algorithms applied to photometric data in the Sloan Digital Sky Digital Survey Data Release Seven (SDSS-DR7) to perform star/galaxy separation. Each algorithm is defined by a set fo parameters which, when varied, produce diferente final classifications trees. In that work we extensively explore the parameter space of each algorithm, using the set of 884,126 SDSS objects with spectroscopic data as the training set. We find that Functional Tree algorithm (FT) yields the best results by the mean completeness function (galaxy true positive rate) in two magnitude intervals:14=19 (82.1%). We compare FT classification to the SDSS parametric, 2DPHOT and Ball et al (2006) classifications. At the faintest magnitudes (r > 19), our classifier is the only one that maintains high completeness (>80%) while simultaneously achieving low contamination ( 2.5%). We also examine the SDSS parametric classifier (psfMag - modelMag) to see if the dividing line between stars and galaxies can be adjusted to improve the classifier. We find that currently stars in close pairs are often misclassified as galaxies, and suggest a new cut to improve the classifier. Finally, we apply our FT classifier to separate stars from galaxies in the full set of 69,545,326 SDSS photometric objects in the magnitude range 14 train six FT classifiers with random selected objects from the same 884,126 SDSS-DR7 objects with spectroscopic data that we use before. Both, the decision commitee and our previous single FT classifier will be applied to the new ojects from SDSS data releses eight, nine and ten. Finally we will compare peformances of both methods in this new data set.  Vasconcellos, E. C.; de Carvalho, R. R.; Gal, R. R.; LaBarbera, F. L.; Capelato, H. V.; Fraga Campos Velho, H.; Trevisan, M.; Ruiz, R. S. R.. Decision Tree Classifiers for Star/Galaxy Separation. The Astronomical Journal, Volume 141, Issue 6, 2011.
Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie
Residential relocation choice is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline prices as a potential factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation choice using 1996–2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with a higher percentage of movers choosing locations closer to workplaces. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on land use planning and policies; resilient “smart cities or communities” are one possible solution. PMID:29658959
Sa, Sangduk; Narita, Masakuni
This paper is concerned with an optimal planning in a multiple objective decision-making problem of allocating radiation workers to workplaces associated with occupational exposure. The model problem is formulated with the application of goal programming which effectively followed up diverse and conflicting factors influencing the optimal decision. The formulation is based on the data simulating the typical situations encountered at the operating facilities such as nuclear power plants where exposure control is critical to the management. Multiple goals set by the decision-maker/manager who has the operational responsibilities for radiological protection are illustrated in terms of work requirements, exposure constraints of the places, desired allocation of specific personnel and so on. Test results of the model are considered to indicate that the model structure and its solution process can provide the manager with a good set of analysis of his problems in implementing the optimization review of radiation protection during normal operation. (author)
Full Text Available This paper provides an empirical and experimental analysis of individual decision making in small decision-making problems with a series of laboratory experiments. Two experimental treatments with binary small decision-making problems are implemented: (1 the search treatment with the unknown payoff distribution to the decision makers and (2 the choice treatment with the known payoff distribution. A first observation is that in the search treatment the tendency to select best reply to the past performances, and misestimation of the payoff distribution can lead to robust deviations from expected value maximisation. A second observation is concerned with choice problems with two options with the same expected value: one option is more risky with larger payoff variability; the other option is moderate with less payoff variability. Experimental results show that it is likely that the more the decision makers choose a risky option, the higher they can achieve high points, ex post. Finally, I investigate the exploration tendency. Comparison of results between the search treatment and the choice treatment reveals that the additional information to the decision makers enhances expected value maximisation.
Embrey, D.; Humphreys, P.
Under abnormal plant condition effective decision support has to take into account the operator's or other decision maker's mental model of the plant, derived from operating experience. This will be different from the engineering model incorporated in Disturbance Analysis Systems. Recently developed approaches for gaining access to the structure of this mental model provided the basis for the development of an interactive computer system capable of representing and exploring expert knowledge concerning inferences about causal patterns, starting from the information available to the operator in the control room. This system has potential application as an interactive diagnostic aid in support of decision making and problem solving during abnormal conditions. (Auth.)
Santini, Alberto; Plum, Christian Edinger Munk; Røpke, Stefan
In this paper we consider the problem of designing a container liner shipping feeder network. The designer has to choose which port to serve during many rotations that start and end at a central hub. Many operational characteristics are considered, such as variable leg-by-leg speeds and cargo...
The ERDOS-software is a stochastic dynamic program to support the decision problem of preventively evacuating the workers of an industrial company threatened by a nuclear accident taking place in the near future with a particular probability. ERDOS treats this problem as one of optimal stopping: the governmental decision maker initially holds a call option enabling him to postpone the evacuation decision and observe the further evolution of the alarm situation. As such, he has to decide on the optimal point in time to exercise this option, i.e. to take the irreversible decision to evacuate the threatened workers. ERDOS allows to calculate the expected costs of an optimal intervention strategy and to compare this outcome with the costs resulting from a myopic evacuation decision, ignoring the prospect of more complete information at later stages of the decision process. Furthermore, ERDOS determines the free boundary, giving the critical severity as a function of time that will trigger immediate evacuation in case it is exceeded. Finally, the software provides useful insights in the financial implications of loosing time during the initial stages of the decision process (due to the gathering of information, discussions on the intervention strategy and so on)
Florina Guadalupe Arredondo Trapero
Full Text Available The articles objective is to demonstrate that a socially responsible consumer is interested of being informed about Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR practices and is also willing to pay a higher price for a product made with CSR. Criteria of price as well as the interest of being informed about CSR practices were the two variables analyzed for the Chi-Square test. Even though CSR was declared as an important issue for the majority of participants, products made with CSR hasn’t achieved much influence in the buying decision making or in the need of being informed about the CSR practices. The need to create social consciousness for consumers to promote CSR practices through the buying decision making was also demonstrated.
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the existence of the solution for the overlapping generations model, using fixed point theorems in metric spaces endowed with a graph. The overlapping generations model has been introduced and developed by Maurice Allais (1947, Paul Samuelson (1958, Peter Diamond (1965 and so on. The present paper treats the case presented by Edmond (2008 in (Edmond, 2008 for a continuous time. The theorem of existence of the solution for the prices fixed point problem derived from the overlapping generations model gives an approximation of the solution via the graph theory. The tools employed in this study are based on applications of the Jachymski fixed point theorem on metric spaces endowed with a graph (Jachymski, 2008
Junio Andret; Nabila H Zhafira; Sheila S Akmal; Suresh Kumar
This research aim to analyze why the number of convenience store keep increasing by identify the dominant factors which are product, price, place, promotion and service quality that affect customer buying decision of convenience store in Bekasi. This research also as an input to help smaller traders in having better performance in future market. This research involves 300 Bekasi populations to obtain the required data. Then the questionnaire result analyzed with SPPS statistics wh...
This talk presents computational results that show the usefulness of the general-purpose valid inequalities disjunctive cuts when applied to the CVRP. Results indicate that the disjunctive cuts are able to reduce the gap between lower bound and upper bound more than state-of-the-art problem...... specific inequalities. Results also indicate that introducing the cuts leads to a smaller branch and bound tree and faster solution times overall....
Hankins, W. W.; Pennington, J. E.; Barker, L. K.
The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.
Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.
ERCAN, Merve; YILDIRIM, Meral; OTURAK, Çiğdem; EREN, Tamer
Strategy games occupy a very important place in gaming industry. In this study, characterselection is made according to the rival team which is created by developing scenarios for Summoner's Rift inLeague of Legends (LOL) strategy game and Howling Abyss modes. In order to solve the problem, AnalyticalHierarchy Process (AHP), TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods are utilized from multicriteria decision makingmethods in Summoner's Rift and Howling Abyss mode. For the problem, five alternative...
Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.
The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs
Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.
The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data
Full Text Available Traditional research of decision-making has not significantly contributed towards better understanding of professional judgment and decisions in practice. Researchers dealing with decision-making in various professions and natural settings initiated new perspectives called naturalistic, which put the expert in the focus of research and the expertise thus entered the core of decision-making research in natural situations.Expert team is more than a group of experts. It is defined as a group of interdependent team members with a high level of task related expertise and the mastering of team processes.There have been several advances in understanding of expertise and the team. By combining theories, models, and empirical evidence we are trying to explain effectiveness and adaptation of expert teams in problem-solving and decision-making in complex and dynamic situations.A considerable research has been devoted to finding out what are the characteristics of experts and expert teams during their optimal functioning. These characteristics are discussed as input, process and output factors. As input variables the cognitive, social-affective, and motivational characteristics are presented. Process variables encompass individual and team learning, problem solving and decision-making as presented in Kolb’s cycle of learning, in deeper structures of dialogue and discussion, and in phenomena of collaboration, alignment, and distributed cognition. Outcome variables deal with task performance – activities.
Integrating a double-purpose desalination and electricity generating plant into a water supply system alters the conditions in which the other water and electricity sources are used, as the peak and the base load water and electricity demands have to be met at the least cost. This paper attempts to show how the problem of determining optimal water supply structures can be approached, in definite cases, but against a global economic back-ground. It becomes necessary to define the competition between classical resources and desalination plants, as these plants introduce into optimum studies new factors due to the peculiar shape of their production functions. These new factors (fixed and proportional costs structures, flow availabilities) are studied in relation to the production functions in various management cases (private monopoly, public monopoly). (author) [fr
This article offers lessons from an initiative refashioning the doctoral thesis in an education leadership program. The program serves a practitioner clientele; most are teachers and administrators. The new model for the thesis emphasizes leadership, problem solving, decision making, and organizational improvement. The former model was a…
Toman, David; Weddel, Grant Edwin
We present a decision procedure for the logical implication problem of a boolean complete DL dialect that includes attributes roles inverse roles and a new concept constructor that is capable of expressing a variety of equality and order generating dependencies The procedure underlies a mapping o...
Brooks, William J.
A basic qualitative research study was conducted to develop insights into how adult learners employ problem-solving and decision-making (PSDM), when considering college financing, student loans, and student debt. Using the social media Website Facebook, eight qualified participants were recruited. Participants were interviewed via telephone, and…
Hardin, Andrew M.; Looney, Clayton Arlen
Advancement of myopic loss aversion theory has been hamstrung by conflicting results, methodological inconsistencies, and a piecemeal approach toward understanding the key factors influencing decision problem framing. A series of controlled experiments provides a more holistic view of the variables promoting myopia. Extending the information…
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present Decision Support Concept (DSC for management of construction projects. Focus of our research is in application of multicritera methods (MCM to decision making in planning phase of construction projects (related to the problem of construction sites selection. The problem is identified as a significant one from many different aspects such as economic aspect, civil engineering aspect, etc. what indicates the necessity for evaluation of multiple sites by several different criteria. Therefore, DSC for construction site selection based on PROMETHEE method is designed. In order to define the appropriate criteria, their weights and preference functions for the concept, three groups of stakeholders are involved (investors, construction experts and experts for real estate market in its design. AHP method has been used for determination of criteria weights. The model has been tested on the problem of site selection for construction of residential-commercial building in four largest cities in Croatia.
Full Text Available The aim of our research was to determine how colour impacts the effectiveness of a logotype for a particular activity and which colour used is strong, stable, associative and “playful”, and thus the most appropriate for presenting a selected activity. For the purpose of this research, a logotype for a circus artist was designed using four colour variations, while conjoint analysis was used to identify the colour preference of a specific logotype. Besides colour, three additional attributes were chosen: the type, duration and price of a performance. Three or four levels were specified for every attribute. The results of the survey showed that colour is the not the most important of the four attributes, but that it does have a certain effect on a customer’s decision. In the analysis, most respondents choose the red logotype, an outdoor performance, and the longest duration and the lowest price of a performance. The most important of the four attributes for respondents was the price of a performance, followed by the duration of a performance, the content/type of a performance and finally the colour of the associated logotype. The preference of respondents was improved by testing combinations of the four attributes and levels, where the colour blue was replaced with red. The research opens possibilities for further research regarding the impact of colours on subconscious decisions.
As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable
Full Text Available Decision Neuroscience has shown positive and negative side of emotions in intertemporal choices. Psychological evidences, indeed, point out anomalies (impulsivity modifies the discount function of each individual and the false consensus effect which increases the degree of consensus in a multi-agent decision problem. An experiment (Engelmann and Strobel 2004 demonstrates that the relevance of the false consensus effect depends on the difficulty of the information retrieval, so the underlying mechanism is an information processing deficiency rather than egocentricity. We demonstrate that emotions can not cause anomalies in a cooperative strategic interaction because information is explicit.
Rezaei, Navid; Kalantar, Mohsen
Highlights: • Proposing a multi-objective security pricing mechanism for islanded microgrids. • Generating Pareto points using epsilon constraint methodology. • Best compromise solution using a novel decision making approach. • An equilibrium-inspired technique is used as an efficient decision making method. • Stochastic management of hierarchical reserves in a droop controlled microgrid. - Abstract: The present paper formulates a frequency security constrained energy management system for an islanded microgrid. Static and dynamic securities of the microgrids have been modeled in depth based on droop control paradigm. The derived frequency dependent modeling is incorporated into a multi-objective energy management system. Microgrid central controller is in charge to determine optimal prices of energy and frequency security such that technical, economic and environmental targets are satisfied simultaneously. The associated prices are extracted based on calculating related Lagrange multipliers corresponding to providing the microgrid hourly energy and reserve requirements. Besides, to generate optimal Pareto solutions of the proposed multi-objective framework augmented epsilon constraint method is applied. Moreover, a novel methodology on the basis of Nash equilibrium strategy is devised and employed to select the best compromise solution from the generated Pareto front. Comprehensive analysis tool is implemented in a typical test microgrid and executed over a 24 h scheduling time horizon. The energy, primary and secondary frequency control reserves have been scheduled appropriately in three different case-studies which are defined based on the microgrid various operational policies. The optimization results verify that the operational policies adopted by means of the microgrid central controller have direct impacts on determined energy and security prices. The illustrative implementations can give the microgrid central controller an insight view to provide
Full Text Available The selection of appropriate alternative in the industrial environment is an important but, at the same time, a complex and difficult problem because of the availability of a wide range of alternatives and similarity among them. Therefore, there is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations. In this paper, a hybrid decision making method of graph theory and matrix approach (GTMA and analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed. Three examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed GTMA-AHP method and the results are compared with the results obtained using other decision making methods.
Full Text Available Individuals who are unaware of a need for information and/or who have not experienced the information retrieval process while meeting such a need cannot be a part of information society. Only those individuals with an awareness that information is essential to the problem-solving and decision-making processes, who are equipped with information retrieval and utilization skills and who can further integrate such skills into their daily lives, can be a part of an information society and attain the capability of performing properly in their societal roles and thus ultimately of shaping their society. Moving from this context, this article defines the elements of the information retrieval process, starting with the concept of information, and studies the influences of the information retrieval process on problem solving and decision making.
Dheeraj Kumar Joshi
Full Text Available Uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness comprehensively exist in control and decision support systems. In the present study, we introduce notion of occurring probability of possible values into hesitant fuzzy linguistic element (HFLE and define hesitant probabilistic fuzzy linguistic set (HPFLS for ill structured and complex decision making problem. HPFLS provides a single framework where both stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainties can be efficiently handled along with hesitation. We have also proposed expected mean, variance, score and accuracy function and basic operations for HPFLS. Weighted and ordered weighted aggregation operators for HPFLS are also defined in the present study for its applications in multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM problems. We propose a MCGDM method with HPFL information which is illustrated by an example. A real case study is also taken in the present study to rank State Bank of India, InfoTech Enterprises, I.T.C., H.D.F.C. Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance using real data. Proposed HPFLS-based MCGDM method is also compared with two HFL-based decision making methods.
Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju
We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...
Mayasari, Ruth; Mawengkang, Herman; Gomar Purba, Ronal
Land revitalization refers to comprehensive renovation of farmland, waterways, roads, forest or villages to improve the quality of plantation, raise the productivity of the plantation area and improve agricultural production conditions and the environment. The objective of sustainable land revitalization planning is to facilitate environmentally, socially, and economically viable land use. Therefore it is reasonable to use participatory approach to fullfil the plan. This paper addresses a multicriteria decision aid to model such planning problem, then we develop an interactive approach for solving the problem.
Full Text Available The convex domination number and the weakly convex domination number are new domination parameters. In this paper we show that the decision problems of convex and weakly convex dominating sets are \\(NP\\-complete for bipartite and split graphs. Using a modified version of Warshall algorithm we can verify in polynomial time whether a given subset of vertices of a graph is convex or weakly convex.
Full Text Available Game theory is considered as an efficient framework in dealing with decision making problems for two players in the competitive environment. In general, the evaluation values of payoffs matrix are expressed by crisp values in a game model. However, many uncertainties and vagueness should be considered due to the qualitative criteria and the subjective judgment of decision makers in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to develop an effective methodology for solving the payoffs matrix with linguistic variables by multiple decision makers in a game model. Based on the linguistic variables, the decision makers can easily express their opinions with respect to criteria for each alternative. By using the linear programming method, we can find the optimal solution of a game matrix in accordance with the combination of strategies of each player effectively. In addition, the expected performance value (EPV index is defined in this paper to compare the competition ability of each player based on the optimal probability of each strategy combination. And then, numerical example will be implemented to illustrate the computation process of the proposed model. The conclusion and future research are discussed at the end of this paper.
Nightingale, J.M.; Murphy, F.J.; Robinson, L.; Newton-Hughes, A.; Hogg, P.
Objective: Breast compression decreases radiation dose and reduces potential for motion and geometric unsharpness, yet there is variability in applied compression force within and between some centres. This article explores the problem solving process applied to the application of breast compression force from the mammography practitioners' perspective. Methods: A qualitative analysis was undertaken using an existing full data set of transcribed qualitative data collected in a phenomenological study of mammography practitioner values, behaviours and beliefs. The data emerged from focus groups conducted at six NHS breast screening centres in England (participant n = 41), and semi-structured interviews with mammography educators (n = 6). A researcher followed a thematic content analysis process to extract data related to mammography compression problem solving, developing a series of categories, themes and sub-themes. Emerging themes were then peer-validated by two other researchers, and developed into a model of practice. Results: Seven consecutive stages contributed towards compression force problem solving: assessing the request; first impressions; explanations and consent; handling the breast and positioning; applying compression force; final adjustments; feedback. The model captures information gathering, problem framing, problem solving and decision making which inform an ‘ideal’ compression scenario. Behavioural problem solving, heuristics and intuitive decision making are reflected within this model. Conclusion: The application of compression should no longer be considered as one single task within mammography, but is now recognised as a seven stage problem solving continuum. This continuum model is the first to be applied to mammography, and is adaptable and transferable to other radiography practice settings. - Highlights: • Mammography compression should no longer be considered as one single examination task. • A seven stage breast
Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.
A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.
Full Text Available Due to the expensive production equipment, many manufacturers usually lease production equipment with a warranty period during a finite leasing horizon, rather than purchasing them. The lease contract contains the possibility of obtaining an extended warranty for a given additional cost. In this paper, based on the forecasting production/maintenance optimization problem, we develop a mathematical model to study the lease contract with basic and extended warranty based on win-win relationship between the lessee and the lessor. The influence of the production rates in the equipment degradation consequently on the total cost by each side during the finite leasing horizon is stated in order to determine a theoretical condition under which a compromise-pricing zone exists under different possibilities of maintenance policies.
Li, Ni; Huai, Wenqing; Wang, Shaodan
C2 (command and control) has been understood to be a critical military component to meet an increasing demand for rapid information gathering and real-time decision-making in a dynamically changing battlefield environment. In this article, to improve a C2 behaviour model's reusability and interoperability, a behaviour modelling framework was proposed to specify a C2 model's internal modules and a set of interoperability interfaces based on the C-BML (coalition battle management language). WTA (weapon target assignment) is a typical C2 autonomous decision-making behaviour modelling problem. Different from most WTA problem descriptions, here sensors were considered to be available resources of detection and the relationship constraints between weapons and sensors were also taken into account, which brought it much closer to actual application. A modified differential evolution (MDE) algorithm was developed to solve this high-dimension optimisation problem and obtained an optimal assignment plan with high efficiency. In case study, we built a simulation system to validate the proposed C2 modelling framework and interoperability interface specification. Also, a new optimisation solution was used to solve the WTA problem efficiently and successfully.
José Carlos Ortiz-Bayliss
Full Text Available When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs, it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.
Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Amaya, Ivan; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique; Terashima-Marín, Hugo
When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differences among the orderings produced by some commonly used heuristics and the way bad first decisions affect the search cost. One of the most important findings of this work confirms the paramount importance of first decisions. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. Another one is the evidence that many of the existing variable ordering heuristics fail to appropriately select the first variable to instantiate. We propose a simple method to improve early decisions of heuristics. By using it, performance of heuristics increases.
Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele
Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.
Full Text Available Marketers frequently use promotions to enhance sales and increase consumers’ perceptions of value. However, most promotions usually come with restrictions, such as time expiration, quantity or product model restriction, etc. In the present research, the effect of the stage in the purchase process when the consumer finds out about the restriction is investigated. The findings indicate that the later in the purchase process the consumer discovers the restriction, the greater is the perception that the effort invested into the purchase is wasted, consequently resulting in lower promotion and price fairness. This effect is mediated through the feeling of entitlement to the promotional price and the inferred negative retailer’s motive for the promotion. Theoretical and managerial implications are also discussed.
Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui
This paper reports on the work carried out supporting a rural community in Denmark under the LEADER+ programme. This is a programme that supports development in particularly vulnerable rural regions of the European countries members of EU. It supports creative and innovative projects that can...... contribute to long-term and sustainable development in these regions. The main tasks have been the organisation and facilitation of conferences and workshops to structure the problematic situation of identifying and designing innovative projects for the development of the community and to support decision...... making processes related to the agreement on action plans. Learning to design, plan, manage and facilitate conferences and workshops have also being another central activity. The main purpose of these conferences and workshops was not only problem structuring and decision making in connection...
Full Text Available The interval neutrosophic set (INS can be easier to express the incomplete, indeterminate and inconsistent information, and TOPSIS is one of the most commonly used and effective method for multiple attribute decision making, however, in general, it can only process the attribute values with crisp numbers. In this paper, we have extended TOPSIS to INS, and with respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems in which the attribute weights are unknown and the attribute values take the form of INSs, we proposed an expanded TOPSIS method. Firstly, the definition of INS and the operational laws are given, and distance between INSs is defined. Then, the attribute weights are determined based on the Maximizing deviation method and an extended TOPSIS method is developed to rank the alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.
Full Text Available As a generalization of fuzzy sets and intuitionistic fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets have been developed to represent uncertain, imprecise, incomplete, and inconsistent information existing in the real world. And interval neutrosophic sets (INSs have been proposed exactly to address issues with a set of numbers in the real unit interval, not just a specific number. However, there are fewer reliable operations for INSs, as well as the INS aggregation operators and decision making method. For this purpose, the operations for INSs are defined and a comparison approach is put forward based on the related research of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs in this paper. On the basis of the operations and comparison approach, two interval neutrosophic number aggregation operators are developed. Then, a method for multicriteria decision making problems is explored applying the aggregation operators. In addition, an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method.
Zhang, Hong-yu; Wang, Jian-qiang; Chen, Xiao-hong
As a generalization of fuzzy sets and intuitionistic fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets have been developed to represent uncertain, imprecise, incomplete, and inconsistent information existing in the real world. And interval neutrosophic sets (INSs) have been proposed exactly to address issues with a set of numbers in the real unit interval, not just a specific number. However, there are fewer reliable operations for INSs, as well as the INS aggregation operators and decision making method. For this purpose, the operations for INSs are defined and a comparison approach is put forward based on the related research of interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) in this paper. On the basis of the operations and comparison approach, two interval neutrosophic number aggregation operators are developed. Then, a method for multicriteria decision making problems is explored applying the aggregation operators. In addition, an example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method.
Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)
This chapter provides an overview of pricing issues the proper pricing of transmission services is essential to efficient operation of the grid. Wheeling rights have little meaning if capacity on existing lines is scarce and there is no incentive to build new lines. Depending on the type of transmission pricing policies FERC adopts, the Commission may be able to encourage more voluntary wheeling service, and to influence decisions to build or upgrade the supply of facilities
Finn, Peter R; Gerst, Kyle; Lake, Allison; Bogg, Tim
Alcohol use disorders are associated with patterns of impulsive/risky decision making on behavioral economic decision tasks, but little is known about the factors affecting drinking-related decisions. The effects of incentives and disincentives to attend and drink at hypothetical alcohol-related party events as a function of lifetime (LT) alcohol and antisocial problems were examined in a sample of 434 young adults who varied widely in LT alcohol and antisocial problems. Moderate and high disincentives substantially discouraged decisions to attend the party events and were associated with decisions to drink less at the party events. High versus low party incentives were associated with more attendance decisions. LT antisocial problems were associated with being less deterred from attending by moderate and high disincentives. LT alcohol problems were associated with greater attendance at high party incentive contexts. LT alcohol problems were associated with drinking more at the majority of events; however, the results indicate that young adults with high levels of alcohol problems moderate their drinking in response to moderate and high disincentives. Finally, attendance and drinking decisions on this hypothetical task were significantly related to actual drinking practices. The results suggest that antisocial symptoms are associated with a reduced sensitivity to the potential negative consequences of drinking, while alcohol problems are associated with a greater sensitivity to the rewarding aspects of partying. The results also underline the value of directly assessing drinking-related decisions in different hypothetical contexts as well as assessing decisions about attendance at risky drinking events in addition to drinking amount decisions. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.
Full Text Available A time-space network based optimization method is designed for high-speed rail train timetabling problem to improve the service level of the high-speed rail. The general time-space path cost is presented which considers both the train travel time and the high-speed rail operation requirements: (1 service frequency requirement; (2 stopping plan adjustment; and (3 priority of train types. Train timetabling problem based on time-space path aims to minimize the total general time-space path cost of all trains. An improved branch-and-price algorithm is applied to solve the large scale integer programming problem. When dealing with the algorithm, a rapid branching and node selection for branch-and-price tree and a heuristic train time-space path generation for column generation are adopted to speed up the algorithm computation time. The computational results of a set of experiments on China’s high-speed rail system are presented with the discussions about the model validation, the effectiveness of the general time-space path cost, and the improved branch-and-price algorithm.
Full Text Available Selection of an appropriate supplier along with planning a good inventory system has become an area of open research for the past few years. In this paper, we present a multi objective decision making supplier and inventory management model where two objectives including the quality and offering price of supplier are minimized, simultaneously. The proposed model is formulated as mixed integer programming and it is converted into an ordinary single objective function using Lp-Norm. In order to find efficient solution, we use NSGA-II as meta-heuristic technique and the performance of the proposed model is examined using some instances. The preliminary results indicate that both Lp-Norm and NSGA-II methods can be used to handle problems in various sizes.
Bijmolt, THA; Van Heerde, HJ; Pieters, RGM
The importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities. In an influential meta-analytical study, Tellis (1988) summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986. However, empirical generalizations on price elasticity require
Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Sornette, Didier
The ability to price risks and devise optimal investment strategies in thé présence of an uncertain "random" market is thé cornerstone of modern finance theory. We first consider thé simplest such problem of a so-called "European call option" initially solved by Black and Scholes using Ito stochastic calculus for markets modelled by a log-Brownien stochastic process. A simple and powerful formalism is presented which allows us to generalize thé analysis to a large class of stochastic processes, such as ARCH, jump or Lévy processes. We also address thé case of correlated Gaussian processes, which is shown to be a good description of three différent market indices (MATIF, CAC40, FTSE100). Our main result is thé introduction of thé concept of an optimal strategy in the sense of (functional) minimization of the risk with respect to the portfolio. If the risk may be made to vanish for particular continuous uncorrelated 'quasiGaussian' stochastic processes (including Black and Scholes model), this is no longer the case for more general stochastic processes. The value of the residual risk is obtained and suggests the concept of risk-corrected option prices. In the presence of very large deviations such as in Lévy processes, new criteria for rational fixing of the option prices are discussed. We also apply our method to other types of options, `Asian', `American', and discuss new possibilities (`doubledecker'...). The inclusion of transaction costs leads to the appearance of a natural characteristic trading time scale. L'aptitude à quantifier le coût du risque et à définir une stratégie optimale de gestion de portefeuille dans un marché aléatoire constitue la base de la théorie moderne de la finance. Nous considérons d'abord le problème le plus simple de ce type, à savoir celui de l'option d'achat `européenne', qui a été résolu par Black et Scholes à l'aide du calcul stochastique d'Ito appliqué aux marchés modélisés par un processus Log
Larichev, O I
New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis.
Modecki, Kathryn L; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie J; Guerra, Nancy
Research on executive control during the teenage years points to shortfalls in emotion regulation, coping, and decision making as three linked capabilities associated with youth's externalizing behavior problems. Evidence gleaned from a detailed review of the literature makes clear that improvement of all three capabilities is critical to help young people better navigate challenges and prevent or reduce externalizing and related problems. Moreover, interventions can successfully improve these three capabilities and have been found to produce behavioral improvements with real-world significance. Examples of how successful interventions remediate more than one of these capabilities are provided. Future directions in research and practice are also proposed to move the field toward the development of more comprehensive programs for adolescents to foster their integration. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.
New trends in making decisions on accidents when using large-scale technologies-NPPs, chemical plants etc., are considered. Three main directions in the investigations in this field are distinguished. One of them consists in risk measuring (its perception by people, ways of its quantitative determination). The second direction consists in increasing the safety of large-scale production systems. Here the following questions are considered: risk assessment (the safety standard statement), site selection for new systems, man-machine interaction problems, development of safer technologies, cost benefit safety analysis. The third direction is connected with the problem of accidents and their analysis. This direction includes considering the reasons and process of the accident development, preparing for the possible accidents, monitoring under extreme conditions, accident effect analysis
Full Text Available Purpose: The paper concerns competition of different transportation modes coexist in inter-city transportation corridor. The purpose of this paper is to express the competitive relationship by building mathematical model and obtain the best sharing rate and the optimal ticket price of different transportation modes. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, analyzing influencing factors of passenger choice about transportation modes, we designed an utility function of transportation modes. Secondly, referring to the game theory and logit modle, a non-cooperative game model between railway and highway was built. Finally, the model was applied to Nanchang-Jiujiang transportation corridor in China for an empirical analysis. Findings: The results indicate that the proposed non-cooperative game model is rational and reliable, and it supplies a scientific method to determine the optimal ticket price and passenger sharing rate of different transportation modes, and can be applied to the competition study on different transportation modes in inter-city transportation corridor. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is to built the non-cooperative game model, which can consider the needs of different travelers, and achieve reasonable passenger divergence of different transportation modes and coordinated development of whole transport market.
Heidari, Mohammad; Shahbazi, Sara
Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of problem-solving training on decision-making skill and critical thinking in emergency medical personnel. Materials and Methods: This study is an experimental study that performed in 95 emergency medical personnel in two groups of control (48) and experimental (47). Then, a short problem-solving course based on 8 sessions of 2 h during the term, was performed for the experimental group. Of data gathering was used demographic and researcher made decision-making and California critical thinking skills questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The finding revealed that decision-making and critical thinking score in emergency medical personnel are low and problem-solving course, positively affected the personnel’ decision-making skill and critical thinking after the educational program (P problem-solving in various emergency medicine domains such as education, research, and management, is recommended. PMID:28149823
Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the influences of vertical and horizontal cooperation models on the optimal decisions and performance of a low-carbon closed-loop supply chain (CLSC with a manufacturer and two retailers, and study optimal operation in the competitive pricing, competitive the low-carbon promotion, the carbon emission reduction, the used-products collection and the profits. We consider the completely decentralized model, M-R vertical cooperation model, R-R horizontal cooperation model, M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model and completely centralized model, and also identify the optimal decision results and profits. It can be observed from a systematic comparison and numerical analysis that the completely centralized model is best in all optimal decision results among all models. In semi-cooperation, the M-R vertical cooperation model is positive, the R-R horizontal cooperation model is passive, and the positivity of the M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model decreases with competitive intensity increasing in the used-products returning, carbon emissions reduction level, low-carbon promotion effort and the profits of the manufacturer and the entire supply chain.
Li, Hui; Wang, Chuanxu; Shang, Meng; Ou, Wei
In this paper, we examine the influences of vertical and horizontal cooperation models on the optimal decisions and performance of a low-carbon closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with a manufacturer and two retailers, and study optimal operation in the competitive pricing, competitive the low-carbon promotion, the carbon emission reduction, the used-products collection and the profits. We consider the completely decentralized model, M-R vertical cooperation model, R-R horizontal cooperation model, M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model and completely centralized model, and also identify the optimal decision results and profits. It can be observed from a systematic comparison and numerical analysis that the completely centralized model is best in all optimal decision results among all models. In semi-cooperation, the M-R vertical cooperation model is positive, the R-R horizontal cooperation model is passive, and the positivity of the M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model decreases with competitive intensity increasing in the used-products returning, carbon emissions reduction level, low-carbon promotion effort and the profits of the manufacturer and the entire supply chain. PMID:29104268
Li, Hui; Wang, Chuanxu; Shang, Meng; Ou, Wei
In this paper, we examine the influences of vertical and horizontal cooperation models on the optimal decisions and performance of a low-carbon closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with a manufacturer and two retailers, and study optimal operation in the competitive pricing, competitive the low-carbon promotion, the carbon emission reduction, the used-products collection and the profits. We consider the completely decentralized model, M-R vertical cooperation model, R-R horizontal cooperation model, M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model and completely centralized model, and also identify the optimal decision results and profits. It can be observed from a systematic comparison and numerical analysis that the completely centralized model is best in all optimal decision results among all models. In semi-cooperation, the M-R vertical cooperation model is positive, the R-R horizontal cooperation model is passive, and the positivity of the M-R-R vertical and horizontal cooperation model decreases with competitive intensity increasing in the used-products returning, carbon emissions reduction level, low-carbon promotion effort and the profits of the manufacturer and the entire supply chain.
Xu, Ke; He, Huan
This brief guides the reader through three basic Internet resource pricing models using an Internet cost analysis. Addressing the evolution of service types, it presents several corresponding mechanisms which can ensure pricing implementation and resource allocation. The authors discuss utility optimization of network pricing methods in economics and underline two classes of pricing methods including system optimization and entities' strategic optimization. The brief closes with two examples of the newly proposed pricing strategy helping to solve the profit distribution problem brought by P2P
the algorithm getting to him a rate preferably more or less justifiable. In operational research, this subject is known under the name of CPO  (combinatory problem optimization.The choice of a numerical method to use for a merged case study and calculation of the LFP/Fitting/EDP what is [7, 8, 9, 10, 18, 19, 20] (in theoretical form of a problem compensates the final decision to adopt and a strategy of optimal production (which is a practical problem form and the final task most wanted.Each method is imposed by:· The algorithm complexity.· In an application gathering all calculations, the number of uses of method compared to the total number of later issues.· The maximum number of iterations for a given use.· The maximum iterations count allowed for this algorithm kind.· The limitations of the algorithm such as: applicability of a method (algorithm adapted or not to the problem; does the problem constrained or not; problem dimension or order N (N ≤ Nmax; the algorithm stability.It's well-known that for an approached calculation method, the propagation of errors strongly conditions the need of making its adequate choice and if it can be adopted compared to others for the same area.More is the number of the elementary operations is large more the final result misses precision and especially if the finality of the study is a responsible decision to make and a satisfaction of constraints and multiple conditions. Our study proposes an inference based solution (AI with the use of ACO technique (Ant colony Optimization2.
Watson, S R; Hayward, G M
In our interim report a general review was given of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report, consideration is given to examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) which could be used to assist these tasks are discussed. The example decisions chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream.
We revisit the question of whether price matching is anti-competitive in a capacity constrained duopoly setting. We show that the effect of price matching depends on capacity. Specifically, price matching has no effect when capacity is relatively low, but it benefits the firms when capacity...... is relatively high. Interestingly, when capacity is in an intermediate range, price matching benefits only the small firm but does not affect the large firm in any way. Therefore, one has to consider capacity seriously when evaluating if price matching is anti-competitive. If the firms choose their capacities...... simultaneously before pricing decisions, then the effect of price matching is either pro-competitive or ambiguous. We show that if the cost of capacity is high, then price matching can only (weakly) decrease the market price. On the other hand, if the cost of capacity is low, then the effect of price matching...
Full Text Available The pricing policy chosen by the enterprise in respect of goods and finished products of own production, has a decisive influence on the formation of financial results. In modern economic conditions we need to strengthen managerial decisions on the choice and carrying out price policy and a means of solving this problem is accounting. To determine the boundaries and competence of decision-making we analyzed the regulation of these terms and processes, as well as the dynamics of the stocks across sectors of the economy, the consumer price index, producer price index, the price index of realization of industrial products. Widely used data analytical reviews of the national Bank of Ukraine, enterprises' expectations regarding efficiency, the analysis of financial market indicators, etc. Established that the provision of information management pricing of goods shall conform to the requirements of the economy, by deepening complexity of accounting, to ensure the needs of consumers. According to the study substantiates the basics of accounting and analytical aspect of the pricing policy for finished products businesses. In the study of pricing policies in respect of goods in accounting and analytical aspect, we have established the following. The existing normative-legal acts and definitions of researchers on economic and accounting analysis of the concept give a sufficiently wide interpretation, which depends on the orientation and activity of the enterprise. Factors and points of influence on the efficiency of the pricing policy are: information support of process of pricing assessment of pricing factors, establish the objectives of price policy, assessment of customer demand, cost analysis, competition analysis, selecting a pricing method that measures the price adjustment, the evaluation price risk. The economic impact of the market environment is the most significant to the pricing policy of agricultural enterprises, which revealed the analysis
Charlot, Philippe; Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom
This study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships among the euro/US dollar exchange rates, the S and P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) over the period 2005 to 2012. Our model links the univariate volatilities with the correlations via a hidden stochastic decision tree. The ensuing Hidden Markov Decision Tree (HMDT) model is in fact an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) introduced by Jordan et al. (1997). The architecture of this model is the opposite that of the classical deterministic approach based on a binary decision tree and, it allows a probabilistic vision of the relationship between univariate volatility and correlation. Our results are categorized into three groups, namely (1) exchange rates and oil, (2) S and P500 indices, and (3) precious metals. A switching dynamics is seen to characterize the volatilities, while, in the case of the correlations, the series switch from one regime to another, this movement touching a peak during the period of the Subprime crisis in the US, and again during the days following the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. Our findings show that the relationships between volatility and correlation are dependent upon the nature of the series considered, sometimes corresponding to those found in econometric studies, according to which correlation increases in bear markets, at other times differing from them. - Highlights: • This study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships of precious metals and crude oil. • Our model links the univariate volatilities with the correlations via a hidden stochastic decision tree. • This model allows a probabilistic point of view of the relationship between univariate volatility and correlation. • Results show the relationships between volatility and correlation are dependent upon the nature of the series considered
Maria Paz Espinosa
This article examines price discrimination and collusion in spatial markets. The problem is analyzed in the context of a repeated duopoly game. I conclude that the prevailing pricing systems depend on the structural elements of the market. Delivered pricing systems emerge in equilibrium in highly monopolistic and highly competitive industries, while FOB is used in intermediate market structures. The fact driving this result is that delivered pricing policies allow spatial price discrimination...
Pawlikowski, Mirko; Brand, Matthias
The dysfunctional behavior of excessive Internet gamers, such as preferring the immediate reward (to play World of Warcraft) despite the negative long-term consequences may be comparable with the dysfunctional behavior in substance abusers or individuals with behavioral addictions, e.g. pathological gambling. In these disorders, general decision-making deficits have been demonstrated. Hence, the aim of the present work was to examine decision-making competences of excessive World of Warcraft players. Nineteen excessive Internet gamers (EIG) and a control group (CG) consisting of 19 non-gamers were compared with respect to decision-making abilities. The Game of Dice Task (GDT) was applied to measure decision-making under risky conditions. Furthermore psychological-psychiatric symptoms were assessed in both groups. The EIG showed a reduced decision-making ability in the GDT. Furthermore the EIG group showed a higher psychological-psychiatric symptomatology in contrast to the CG. The results indicate that the reduced decision-making ability of EIG is comparable with patients with other forms of behavioral addiction (e.g. pathological gambling), impulse control disorders or substance abusers. Thus, these results suggest that excessive Internet gaming may be based on a myopia for the future, meaning that EIG prefer to play World of Warcraft despite the negative long-term consequences in social or work domains of life. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria.
Qi, Xiao-Wen; Zhang, Jun-Ling; Zhao, Shu-Ping; Liang, Chang-Yong
In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE) as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS) to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager's prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches.
Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria
Full Text Available In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager’s prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches.
Full Text Available Aim/purpose - To develop a conceptual model for analyzing the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins. Design/methodology/approach - To analyze the combined effect of output price risk and material input risk on price margins, we use a series of comparative static analyses, GARCH models, and data ranging from 1990/01 to 2012/12. Findings - The theoretical results indicate that the impact of output price risk and the impact of material input price risk on price margins are ambiguous and, to a great extent, hinge on the correlation between output price and material input price. The empirical results show that whole frozen catfish price risk and live catfish price risk negatively affect the price margin for frozen catfish. The empirical results, however, indicate that the risk of the price of live catfish affects markedly the price margin for frozen whole catfish in contrast to the impact of the risk of the price of frozen whole catfish. Research implications/limitations - The empirical results have significant implications for managerial decision-making especially when crafting strategies for improving price margins. Accordingly, in order to beef up the price margin for frozen whole catfish, catfish processors may consider engaging in vertical integration. This paper has some limitations: first, it assumes that firms operate in competitive markets; second, it assumes that firms produce and sell a single product. Originality/value/contribution - Unlike earlier studies that focused solely on the effect of output price risk on price margins, this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of output price risk and material input price risk on price margins.
Fatrias, D.; Kamil, I.; Meilani, D.
Coordinating business operation with suppliers becomes increasingly important to survive and prosper under the dynamic business environment. A good partnership with suppliers not only increase efficiency, but also strengthen corporate competitiveness. Associated with such concern, this study aims to develop a practical approach of multi-criteria supplier evaluation using combined methods of Taguchi loss function (TLF), best-worst method (BWM) and VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR). A new framework of integrative approach adopting these methods is our main contribution for supplier evaluation in literature. In this integrated approach, a compromised supplier ranking list based on the loss score of suppliers is obtained using efficient steps of a pairwise comparison based decision making process. Implemetation to the case problem with real data from crumb rubber industry shows the usefulness of the proposed approach. Finally, a suitable managerial implication is presented.
Harahap, Amin; Mawengkang, Herman; Siswadi; Effendi, Syahril
In this paper we address a problem that is of significance to the industry, namely the optimal decision of a multi-echelon supply chain and the associated inventory systems. By using the guaranteed service approach to model the multi-echelon inventory system, we develop a mixed integer; programming model to simultaneously optimize the transportation, inventory and network structure of a multi-echelon supply chain. To solve the model we develop a direct search approach using a strategy of releasing nonbasic variables from their bounds, combined with the “active constraint” method. This strategy is used to force the appropriate non-integer basic variables to move to their neighbourhood integer points.
Peter H. Harasym
Full Text Available Ethical decision making is a complex process, which involves the interaction of knowledge, skills, and attitude. To enhance the teaching and learning on ethics reasoning, multiple teaching strategies have to be applied. A medical ethical reasoning (MER model served as a framework of the development of ethics reasoning and their suggested instructional strategies. Problem-based learning (PBL, being used to facilitate students' critical thinking, self-directed learning, collaboration, and communication skills, has been considered effective on ethics education, especially when incorporated with experiential experience. Unlike lecturing that mainly disseminates knowledge and activates the left brain, PBL encourages “whole-brain” learning. However, PBL has several disadvantages, such as its inefficiency, lack of adequately trained preceptors, and the in-depth, silo learning within a relatively small number of cases. Because each school tends to utilize PBL in different ways, either the curriculum designer or the learning strategy, it is important to maximize the advantages of a PBL session, PBL then becomes an ideal format for refining students' ethical decisions and behaviors.
The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables. (RWR)
The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables
Cem Mehmet BAYDUR
Full Text Available Buying a house is an important decision whether it is for investment or for accommodation. Every decision of investment means taking risks. When buying a flat is taken into consideration, it could be clearly seen that there is considerable difference between financially capitalized price and market price of it. In this article, I will be shown that this difference arises from growth expectation in future cash flows. In this article the buying decisions of three different groups of investors are investigated depending on their attitude towards risk taking, based on the growth expectation. Samples of this research are taken from Kötekli and Akçaova, districts of Muğla. The article discusses the actual growth expectations of investors and their buying decisions.
Flouri, E; Ruddy, A; Midouhas, E
Maternal depression may affect the emotional/behavioural outcomes of children with normal neurocognitive functioning less severely than it does those without. To guide prevention and intervention efforts, research must specify which aspects of a child's cognitive functioning both moderate the effect of maternal depression and are amenable to change. Working memory and decision making may be amenable to change and are so far unexplored as moderators of this effect. Our sample was 17 160 Millennium Cohort Study children. We analysed trajectories of externalizing (conduct and hyperactivity) and internalizing (emotional and peer) problems, measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 years, using growth curve models. We characterized maternal depression, also time-varying at these ages, by a high score on the K6. Working memory was measured with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery Spatial Working Memory Task, and decision making (risk taking and quality of decision making) with the Cambridge Gambling Task, both at age 11 years. Maternal depression predicted both the level and the growth of problems. Risk taking and poor-quality decision making were related positively to externalizing and non-significantly to internalizing problems. Poor working memory was related to both problem types. Neither decision making nor working memory explained the effect of maternal depression on child internalizing/externalizing problems. Importantly, risk taking amplified the effect of maternal depression on internalizing problems, and poor working memory that on internalizing and conduct problems. Impaired decision making and working memory in children amplify the adverse effect of maternal depression on, particularly, internalizing problems.
Abolfazl Kazemi; Zohreh SaeedMohammadi
Coordinating the supply chain is among the most important subjects that is extensively addressed in the related literature. If a supply chain is to be coordinated, it is equivalent to say that we must solve a problem related to competition and cooperation. The game theory is obviously one of the most effective methods to solve such problems, in which the players of the supply chain are assumed to engage in cooperative and non-cooperative games. The current study aims to coordinate a two-level...
If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator is also consistent. Keywords: $\\epsilon$-entropy, non-parametric estimation, pricing kernel, inverse problems.
Bauerschmidt, A D; Jacobs, P
This article reports on a survey of 60 financial managers of nonprofit hospitals in the eastern United States relating to the importance of a number of factors which influence their pricing decisions and the pricing objectives which they pursue. Among the results uncovered by the responses: that trustees are the single most important body in the price-setting process (doctors play a relatively unimportant role); that hospital pricing goals are more related to target net revenue than profit ma...
Alam Kazmi, Syed Hasnain
Brand pricing decision models and established theories in the marketing and econometrics focus typically on assuming the symmetric competing businesses. The empirical generalities are key for strategic marketplace planning. The significance of pricing to customer store and brand choices are always regarded as a widely known truth among marketing scholars and explains consumer’s role responding to their psychological representations of price rather than price itself. Scholars have ...
Legbedji, Alexis Motto
We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of
Many petroleum geologists, engineers and managers who have been introduced to petroleum risk analysis doubt that probability theory actually works in practice. Discovery probability estimates for exploration prospects always seem to be more optimistic than after-the-fact results. In general, probability estimates seem to be plucked from the air without any objective basis. Because of subtleties in probability theories, errors may result in applying risk analysis to real problems. Four examples have been selected to illustrate how misunderstanding in applying risk analysis may lead to incorrect decisions. Examples 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 1 and 2 show how falsely assuming statistical independence distorts probability calculations. Example 3 discusses problems with related variable using the Monte Carlo method. Example 4 shows how subsurface data yields a probability value that is superior to a simple statistical estimate. The potential mistakes in the following examples would go unnoticed in analyses in most companies. Lack of objectivity and flawed theory would be blamed when fault actually would lies with incorrect application of basic probability principles
Crosby, R; Milhausen, R; Sanders, S A; Graham, C A; Yarber, W L
This exploratory study compared the frequency of condom use errors and problems between men reporting that condom use for penile-vaginal sex was a mutual decision compared with men making the decision unilaterally. Nearly 2000 people completed a web-based questionnaire. A sub-sample of 660 men reporting that they last used a condom for penile-vaginal sex (within the past three months) was analysed. Nine condom use errors/problems were assessed. Multivariate analyses controlled for men's age, marital status, and level of experience using condoms. Men's unilateral decision-making was associated with increased odds of removing condoms before sex ended (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.51, p = 0.002), breakage (AOR 3.90, p = 0.037), and slippage during withdrawal (AOR 2.04, p = 0.019). Men's self-reported level of experience using condoms was significantly associated with seven out of nine errors/problems, with those indicating less experience consistently reporting more errors/problems. Findings suggest that female involvement in the decision to use condoms for penile-vaginal sex may be partly protective against some condom errors/problems. Men's self-reported level of experience using condoms may be a useful indicator of the need for education designed to promote the correct use of condoms. Education programmes may benefit men by urging them to involve their female partner in condom use decisions.
Robenek, Tomáš; Umang, Nitish; Bierlaire, Michel
In this research, two crucial optimization problems of berth allocation and yard assignment in the context of bulk ports are studied. We discuss how these problems are interrelated and can be combined and solved as a single large scale optimization problem. More importantly we highlight the diffe...
Gitinavard, Hossein; Mousavi, S. Meysam; Vahdani, Behnam
In numerous real-world energy decision problems, decision makers often encounter complex environments, in which existent imprecise data and uncertain information lead us to make an appropriate decision. In this paper, a new soft computing group decision-making approach is introduced based on novel compromise ranking method and interval-valued hesitant fuzzy sets (IVHFSs) for energy decision-making problems under multiple criteria. In the proposed approach, the assessment information is provided by energy experts or decision makers based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy elements under incomplete criteria weights. In this respect, a new ranking index is presented respecting to interval-valued hesitant fuzzy Hamming distance measure to prioritize energy candidates, and criteria weights are computed based on an extended maximizing deviation method by considering the preferences experts' judgments about the relative importance of each criterion. Also, a decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is extended under an IVHF-environment to compute the interdependencies between and within the selected criteria in the hierarchical structure. Accordingly, to demonstrate the applicability of the presented approach a case study and a practical example are provided regarding to hierarchical structure and criteria interdependencies relations for renewable energy and energy policy selection problems. Hence, the obtained computational results are compared with a fuzzy decision-making method from the recent literature based on some comparison parameters to show the advantages and constraints of the proposed approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is prepared to indicate effects of different criteria weights on ranking results to present the robustness or sensitiveness of the proposed soft computing approach versus the relative importance of criteria. - Highlights: • Introducing a novel interval-valued hesitant fuzzy compromise ranking method. • Presenting
Full Text Available This study introduces a new decision model with multi-criteria analysis by a group of decision makers (DMs with intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs. The presented model depends on a new integration of IFSs theory, ELECTRE and VIKOR along with grey relational analysis (GRA. To portray uncertain real-life situations and take account of complex decision problem, multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM model by totally unknown importance are introduced with IF-setting. Hence, a weighting method depended on Entropy and IFSs, is developed to present the weights of DMs and evaluation factors. A new ranking approach is provided for prioritizing the alternatives. To indicate the applicability of the presented new decision model, an industrial application for assessing contractors in the construction industry is given and discussed from the recent literature.
The dissertation consists of three chapters that represent separate papers in the area of asset pricing. The ﬁrst chapter studies investors optimal asset allocation problem in which mean reversion in stock prices is captured by explicitly modeling transitory and permanent shocks. The second chapter
Aytaç Adalı, Esra; Tuş Işık, Ayşegül
A decision making process requires the values of conflicting objectives for alternatives and the selection of the best alternative according to the needs of decision makers. Multi-objective optimization methods may provide solution for this selection. In this paper it is aimed to present the laptop selection problem based on MOORA plus full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of simple ratio analysis (MOOSRA) which are relatively new multi-objective optimization methods. The novelty of this paper is solving this problem with the MULTIMOORA and MOOSRA methods for the first time.
Ng, T.; Eheart, J.; Cai, X.; Braden, J. B.
Agricultural watersheds are coupled human-natural systems where the land use decisions of human agents (farmers) affect surface water quality, and in turn, are affected by the weather and yields. The reliable modeling of such systems requires an approach that considers both the human and natural aspects. Agent-based modeling (ABM), representing the human aspect, coupled with hydrologic modeling, representing the natural aspect, is one such approach. ABM is a relatively new modeling paradigm that formulates the system from the perspectives of the individual agents, i.e., each agent is modeled as a discrete autonomous entity with distinct goals and actions. The primary objective of this study is to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to agricultural watershed management. This is done using a semi-hypothetical case study of farmers in the Salt Creek watershed in East-Central Illinois under the influence markets for carbon and second-generation bioenergy crop (specifically, miscanthus). An agent-based model of the system is developed and linked to a hydrologic model of the watershed. The former is based on fundamental economic and mathematical programming principles, while the latter is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Carbon and second-generation bioenergy crop markets are of interest here due to climate change and energy independence concerns. The agent-based model is applied to fifty hypothetical heterogeneous farmers. The farmers' decisions depend on their perceptions of future conditions. Those perceptions are updated, according to a pre-defined algorithm, as the farmers make new observations of prices, costs, yields and the weather with time. The perceptions are also updated as the farmers interact with each other as they share new information on initially unfamiliar activities (e.g., carbon trading, miscanthus cultivation). The updating algorithm is set differently for different farmers such that each is unique in his processing of
Iglesias, Cynthia P; Drummond, Michael F; Rovira, Joan
The use of economic evaluation studies (EE) in the decision-making process within the health-care system of nine Latin American (LA) and three European countries was investigated. The aim was to identify the opportunities, obstacles, and changes needed to facilitate the introduction of EE as a formal tool in health-care decision-making processes in LA. A comparative study was conducted based on existing literature and information provided through a questionnaire applied to decision makers in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Portugal Spain, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Systematic electronic searches of HEED, NHS EED, and LILACS were conducted to identify published economic evaluation studies in LA from 1982 onward. There is relatively little evidence of the conduct and use of EE within the health care systems in LA. Electronic searches retrieved 554 records; however, only 93 were EE. In the nine LA participating countries, broad allocation of health-care resources is primarily based on political criteria, historical records, geographical areas, and specific groups of patients and diseases. Public-health provision and inclusion of services in health-insurance package are responsibilities of the Ministry of Health. Decisions regarding the purchase of medicines are primarily made through public tenders, and mainly based on differences in clinical efficacy and the price of health technologies of interest. To expedite the process of incorporating EE as a formal tool to inform decision-making processes within the health-care systems in LA countries, two main conditions need to be fulfilled. First, adequate resources and skills need to be available to conduct EE of good quality. Second, decision-making procedures need to be modified to accommodate "evidence-based" approaches such as EE.
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...
with different search costs and willingness to wait. I demonstrate that the high-price-low-price pattern is rational for storable goods. In a Markov-perfect equilibrium, agents’ actions depend on consumer inventory, and purchase decisions are characterized by a critical price. The equilibrium price series...
Ma, Kai; Hu, Shubing; Yang, Jie
This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profi....... In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.......This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit...
Full Text Available Mental accounting is a far-reaching concept, which is often used to explain various kinds of irrational behaviors in human decision making process. This paper investigates dynamic pricing problems for single-flight and multiple flights settings, respectively, where passengers may be affected by mental accounting. We analyze dynamic pricing problems by means of the dynamic programming method and obtain the optimal pricing strategies. Further, we analytically show that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the flight’s expected revenue for the single flight and numerically illustrate that the passenger mental accounting depth has a positive effect on the optimal prices for the multiple flights.
Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang
The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.
Kolasa, Katarzyna; Zwolinski, Krzysztof M; Kalo, Zoltan; Hermanowski, Tomasz
The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of the implementation of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) on the Polish pricing and reimbursement (P&R) process with regard to orphan drugs. A four step approach was designed. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to select the MCDA criteria. Secondly, a database of orphan drugs was established. Thirdly, health technology appraisals (HTA recommendations) were categorized and an MCDA appraisal was conducted. Finally, a comparison of HTA and MCDA outcomes was carried out. An MCDA outcome was considered positive if more than 50% of the maximum number of points was reached (base case). In the sensitivity analysis, 25% and 75% thresholds were tested as well. Out of 2242 publications, 23 full-text articles were included. The final MCDA tool consisted of ten criteria. In total, 27 distinctive drug-indication pairs regarding 21 drugs were used for the study. Six negative and 21 positive HTA recommendations were issued. In the base case, there were 19 positive MCDA outcomes. Of the 27 cases, there were 12 disagreements between the HTA and MCDA outcomes, the majority of which related to positive HTA guidance for negative MCDA outcomes. All drug-indication pairs with negative HTA recommendations were appraised positively in the MCDA framework. Economic details were available for 12 cases, of which there were 9 positive MCDA outcomes. Amongst the 12 drug-indication pairs, two were negatively appraised in the HTA process, with positive MCDA guidance, and two were appraised in the opposite direction. An MCDA approach may lead to different P&R outcomes compared to a standard HTA process. On the one hand, enrichment of the list of decision making criteria means further scrutiny of a given health technology and as such increases the odds of a negative P&R outcome. On the other hand, it may uncover additional values and as such increase the odds of positive P&R outcomes.
Shiroiwa, Takeru; Fukuda, Takashi; Ikeda, Shunya; Takura, Tomoyuki
Economic evaluation is used for decision-making processes in healthcare technologies in many developed countries. In Japan, no health economic data have been requested for drugs, medical devices, and interventions till date. However, economic evaluation is gradually gaining importance, and a trial implementation of the cost-effectiveness evaluation of drugs and medical devices has begun. Discussions on economic evaluation began in May 2012 within a newly established sub-committee of the Chuikyo, referred to as the "Special Committee on Cost Effectiveness." After four years of discussions, this committee determined that during the trial implementation, the results of the cost-effectiveness evaluation would be used for the re-pricing of drugs and medical devices at the end of fiscal year (FY) 2017. Chuikyo selected 13 products (7 drugs and 6 medical devices) as targets for this evaluation. These products will be evaluated until the end of FY 2017 based on the following process: manufacturers will submit the data of economic evaluation; the National Institute of Public Health will coordinate the review process; academic groups will perform the actual review of the submitted data, and the expert committee will appraise these data. This represents the first step to introducing cost-effectiveness analysis in the Japanese healthcare system. We believe that these efforts will contribute to the efficiency and sustainability of the Japanese healthcare system. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Vilalta, R; Ocegueda-Hernandez, F; Valerio, R; Watts, G
Decision tree learning constitutes a suitable approach to classification due to its ability to partition the variable space into regions of class-uniform events, while providing a structure amenable to interpretation, in contrast to other methods such as neural networks. But an inherent limitation of decision tree learning is the progressive lessening of the statistical support of the final classifier as clusters of single-class events are split on every partition, a problem known as the fragmentation problem. We describe a software system called DTFE, for Decision Tree Fragmentation Evaluator, that measures the degree of fragmentation caused by a decision tree learner on every event cluster. Clusters are found through a decomposition of the data using a technique known as Spectral Clustering. Each cluster is analyzed in terms of the number and type of partitions induced by the decision tree. Our domain of application lies on the search for single top quark production, a challenging problem due to large and similar backgrounds, low energetic signals, and low number of jets. The output of the machine-learning software tool consists of a series of statistics describing the degree of data fragmentation.
Full Text Available Numerous contemporary problems that project managers face today can be considered as unstructured decision problems characterized by multiple actors and perspectives, incommensurable and/or conflicting objectives, and important intangibles. This work environment demands that project managers possess not only hard skills but also soft skills with the ability to take a management perspective and, above all, develop real leadership capabilities. In this paper, a family of problem structured methods for decision support aimed at assisting project managers in tackling complex problems are presented. Problem structured methods are a family of soft operations research methods for decision support that assist groups of diverse composition to agree a problem focus and make commitments to consequential action. Project management programs are challenged to implement these methodologies in such a way that it is organized around the key competences that a project manager needs in order to be more effective, work efficiently as members of interdisciplinary teams and successfully execute even a small project.
Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid
Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...
Hui Yu; Jie Deng
This study examines an optimal inventory strategy when a retailer markets a product at different selling prices through a dual-channel supply chain,comprising an online channel and an offline channel.Using the operating pattern of the offiine-to-online (O2O) business model,we develop a partial robust optimization (PRO) model.Then,we provide a closed-form solution when only the mean and standard deviation of the online channel demand distribution is known and the offline channel demand follows a uniform distribution (partial robust).Specifically,owing to the good structural properties of the solution,we obtain a heuristic ordering formula for the general distribution case (i.e.,the offline channel demand follows a general distribution).In addition,a series of numerical experiments prove the rationality of our conjecture.Moreover,after comparing our solution with other possible policies,we conclude that the PRO approach improves the performance of incorporating the internet into an existing supply chain and,thus,is able to adjust the level of conservativeness of the solution.Finally,in a degenerated situation,we compare our PRO approach with a combination of information approach.The results show that the PRO approach has more "robust" performance.As a result,a reasonable trade-off between robustness and performance is achieved.
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Science-Technology-Society (STS) curriculum on students' scientific literacy, problem solving and decision making. Four hundred and eighty (480) Senior Secondary two science and non-science students were randomly selected from intact classes in six secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of…
Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.
In our interim report we gave a general review of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report we go on to consider examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and to discuss how two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) could be used to assist these tasks. The example decisions we have chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream. (U.K.)
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...
Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie
The problem of peak load arises when demand fluctuates over time while the pro- duction technology is not flexible (or making it flexible is economically inefficient) and/or when a product is non-storable (or storage cost is huge). Peak load is a com- mon problem in consumption of public utilities......, on the one hand, observed cost saving benefit of postponing the time of charging to off-peak lower fee of charging and, on the other hand, the cost of delay in departure time for planned trips and uncertain cost of late charging associated with likelihood occur- rence of unanticipated trip before the car...... of electricity. The electric vehicle (EV) users choice of time of charging problem under PLP is different from that of general households using energy for house appliances since there is uncertain cost to the former as- sociated with likelihood occurrence of unanticipated trips such as visiting hospital...
Andrea Erika NYÁRÁDI
Full Text Available The way how we choose our pricing strategy has a significant impact on company’s success. Nowadays companies more and more adopt a new way of thinking in pricing, namely pricing for a long term period in order to bring higher profitability, to build an efficient pricing strategy. Marketers have only recently begun to focus seriously on effective pricing. These companies are the so called progressive companies. They have begun doing more than just worrying about pricing. To increase profitability many are abandoning traditional reactive pricing procedures in favor of proactive pricing, making explicit corporate decisions to change their focus to growth in top-line sales to growth in profitability. The long-term implications of price strategies are still under-researched, and managers should be aware of shifts in customer reactions that may result from frequent adoption of certain strategies. The company pricing strategy should be seen in relation to developments in the company variables, internal ones (capital strength, competencies, organizational conditions, efficiency of the work force etc. as well as external ones (customers, competitors, the technological development etc., adopting strategic pricing. In this paper I will present the most effective pricing strategies leading to long term profitability, and also suggest practical conditions for pricing strategies to maximize profit in the long run.
Full Text Available УДК 342.9The subject of research is legal regulation and practice the enforcement of punishment on deprivation of the license permitting to drive a variety of vehicles.The purpose of this article to show that even for such well-established for many years, narrow and specific law enforcement procedure as the execution of administrative punishment in the form of deprivation of the license there is is very typical whitespace in legal regulation leading to conflicts and risks of enforcement. Methodology. The analysis of administrative-legal actions of officials of State Traffic Safety Inspectorate and State Technical Supervision Authority, as well as legislation on the enforcement of their decisions on cases of administrative offences.Results. It is possible to identify the main causes of the problem of law enforcement, placing them in order of importance:1. The lack of the necessary normative legal acts, regulating the procedure of interaction of the bodies of Rostekhnadzor with the traffic police authorities, courts (judges, and the rules of procedure of the issuance of the certificate of the tractor operator-the machinist after the end of the period of deprivation, the absence of an approved format (sample medical certificate, etc., i.e. a very significant omissions of administrative-legal regulation.2. The failure of judges to the provisions of part 2 of article 32.5 of the administrative code of submitting to the authorities of state technical control of decisions on deprivation of the right of management by a tractor, self-propelled machine or other types of equipment for execution.3. Insufficient level of interaction of police with the Gostekhnadzor for the execution of administrative punishment in the field of traffic.4. The lack of access of authorities of state technical control for Federal information system, integrated into the necessary parts of the information system of internal Affairs bodies and the State information system on
Uncertainty is a crucial issue for producers who must make input decisions without knowing prices and without perfect knowledge of realized output. In this context, price expectations strongly determine the production choices and market prices that result from market-clearing conditions. This study analyzed the role that price expectations play in price dynamics, developing a theoretical model of trade in varieties following Armington (1969) and augmented with yield and price uncertainty to h...
Full Text Available An integrated information system based DSS is developed for Open and Distance Learning (ODL institutions in India. The system has been web structured with the most suitable newly developed modules. A DSS model has been developed for solving semi-structured and unstructured problems including decision making with regard to various programmes and activities operating in the ODLIs. The DSS model designed for problem solving is generally based on quantitative formulas, whereas for problems involving imprecision and uncertainty, a fuzzy theory based DSS is employed. The computer operated system thus developed would help the ODLI management to quickly identify programmes and activities that require immediate attention. It shall also provide guidance for obtaining the most appropriate managerial decisions without any loss of time. As a result, the various subsystems operating in the ODLI are able to administer its activities more efficiently and effectively to enhance the overall performance of the concerned ODL institution to a new level.
Qingming Zou; Guangyu Ye
In a closed-loop supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer, this paper studies the pricing strategies and coordination mechanism of supply chain when the remanufacturing cost is random caused by the proportion of reusability parts in design stage and quality condition of recycling product. The results show that the wholesale price and retail price are negative correlation, while the recycling rate and total profit of supply chain system are positive correlation with the proport...
Celuch, Kevin; Saxby, Carl
The present study extends understanding of the self-regulatory aspects of ethical decision making by integrating and exploring relationships among counterfactual thinking, attribution, anticipatory emotions, and ethical decision-making constructs and processes. Specifically, we examine the effects of a manipulation designed to stimulate a…
Full Text Available Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary utility even when objective information of probabilities and rewards are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more rational. We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20–47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of rational decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.
Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro
Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.
Peplak, Joanna; Song, Ju-Hyun; Colasante, Tyler; Malti, Tina
This study examined the development of children's decisions, reasoning, and emotions in contexts of peer inclusion/exclusion. We asked an ethnically diverse sample of 117 children aged 4years (n=59; 60% girls) and 8years (n=58; 49% girls) to choose between including hypothetical peers of the same or opposite gender and with or without attention deficit/hyperactivity problems and aggressive behavior. Children also provided justifications for, and emotions associated with, their inclusion decisions. Both 4- and 8-year-olds predominantly chose to include the in-group peer (i.e., the same-gender peer and peers without behavior problems), thereby demonstrating a normative in-group inclusive bias. Nevertheless, children included the out-group peer more in the gender context than in the behavior problem contexts. The majority of children reported group functioning-related, group identity-related, and stereotype-related reasoning after their in-group inclusion decisions, and they associated happy feelings with such decisions. Although most children attributed sadness to the excluded out-group peer, they attributed more anger to the excluded out-group peer in the aggression context compared with other contexts. We discuss the implications of our findings for current theorizing about children's social-cognitive and emotional development in contexts of peer inclusion and exclusion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Larsen, Kim Skak; Wøhlk, Sanne
We consider a real-time version of the inventory problem with deterministic demand in which decisions as to when to replenish and how much to buy must be made in an online fashion without knowledge of future prices. We suggest online algorithms for each of four models for the problem and use...
Nielsen, Søren Bo
Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...
Ekström, Erik; Hobson, David
It is well known how to determine the price of perpetual American options if the underlying stock price is a time-homogeneous diffusion. In the present paper we consider the inverse problem, that is, given prices of perpetual American options for different strikes, we show how to construct a time-homogeneous stock price model which reproduces the given option prices.
@@ 1 .Introduction With the development of the globalization, companies face many challenges.Pricing strategy is a part of their marketing efforts.Price is the only element in the marketing mix that produces revenues; all other elements re present cost.So pricing and price competition is the number-one problem facing many marketing executives.To select an initial price, companies should using pricing
Full Text Available This paper discusses two different alternatives to deal with the problem of multiple objectives in decision making. Even Swaps and Choice Based Conjoint are analyzed using an election between hypothetical jobs as a frame of decision. We show that not only Choice Based Conjoint Analysis can be used to value the different tradeoffs associated, but it can also be used to predict people choices even when they are not aware of the trades involved between objectives. Finally a tailored pilot survey is used to show the Choice Based Method in practice, allowing us to obtain important conclusions regarding people willingness to pay for several Labor Formality aspects.
Keppo, Ilkka; Strubegger, Manfred
This paper presents the development and demonstration of a limited foresight energy system model. The presented model is implemented as an extension to a large, linear optimization model, MESSAGE. The motivation behind changing the model is to provide an alternative decision framework, where information for the full time frame is not available immediately and sequential decision making under incomplete information is implied. While the traditional optimization framework provides the globally optimal decisions for the modeled problem, the framework presented here may offer a better description of the decision environment, under which decision makers must operate. We further modify the model to accommodate flexible dynamic constraints, which give an option to implement investments faster, albeit with a higher cost. Finally, the operation of the model is demonstrated using a moving window of foresight, with which decisions are taken for the next 30 years, but can be reconsidered later, when more information becomes available. We find that the results demonstrate some of the pitfalls of short term planning, e.g. lagging investments during earlier periods lead to higher requirements later during the century. Furthermore, the energy system remains more reliant on fossil based energy carriers, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions.
Full Text Available General multi-objective optimization methods are hard to obtain prior information, how to utilize prior information has been a challenge. This paper analyzes the characteristics of Bayesian decision-making based on maximum entropy principle and prior information, especially in case that how to effectively improve decision-making reliability in deficiency of reference samples. The paper exhibits effectiveness of the proposed method using the real application of multi-frequency offset estimation in distributed multiple-input multiple-output system. The simulation results demonstrate Bayesian decision-making based on prior information has better global searching capability when sampling data is deficient.
Full Text Available Introduction: Chest pain is a common chief complaint among patients presenting to health systems and often leads to complex and intensive evaluations. While these patients are often cared for by a multidisciplinary team (primary care, emergency medicine, and cardiology, medical students usually learn about the care of these patients in a fragmented, single-specialty paradigm. The present and future care of patients with chest pain is multidisciplinary, and the education of medical students on the subject should be as well. Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary, problem-based learning workshop to teach third-year medical students about risk assessment for patients presenting with chest pain, specifically focusing on acute coronary syndromes. Methods: To create an educational experience consistent with multidisciplinary team-based care, we designed a multidisciplinary, problem-based learning workshop to provide medical students with an understanding of how patients with chest pain are cared for in a systems-based manner to improve outcomes. Participants included third-year medical students (n=219 at a single, tertiary care, academic medical center. Knowledge acquisition was tested in a pre-/post-retention test study design. Results: Following the workshop, students achieved a 19.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] [17.3–22.2%] absolute increase in scores on post-testing as compared to pre-testing. In addition, students maintained an 11.1% (95% CI [7.2–15.0%] increase on a retention test vs. the pre-test. Conclusion: A multidisciplinary, problem-based learning workshop is an effective method of producing lasting gains in student knowledge about chest pain risk stratification.
Webb, M. G.
Some economic principles of energy pricing in a market type economy in which there is consumer sovereignty are discussed. Thus resources will be allocated via the production processes in line with the preferences of consumers as revealed by their purchases of goods and services. Prices play the crucial role of coordinating instruments in this allocative process. It is assumed that all the energy industries are in the public sector. The following topics are discussed: the specification of objectives for the energy sector; marginal cost pricing; problems associated with the measurement of marginal costs; some aspects of the environmental costs associated with energy production and use, and some issues related to time differentiated tariffs; the modification of prices to achieve financial targets; and the use of energy prices to achieve income distribution objectives.
Courchene, T.J. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). School of Policy Studies; Institute for Research on Public Policy, Montreal, PQ (Canada)
Revenues from natural resources during periods of high energy prices can create problems with the way the Canadian federal government distributes wealth through equalization. This paper traced the history of equalization in comparison with energy prices from the years 1973 to 2003. It was noted that the National Energy Program, section 92A of the Constitution, and the 5-province standard were all federal responses to initial energy price increases. It was suggested that current increases in energy prices demand a different response. The author examined a method of using the national average standard to calculate equalization payments as a means of eliminating the inequities created by the current 5-province standard, which excludes both Alberta and the Atlantic provinces. It was argued that the exclusion of Alberta's energy resources creates a false impression that other provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan are rich in resources. It was suggested that fiscal imbalance between provinces is a significant challenge to the current Canadian government. New approaches to cash transfers to the provinces were discussed. A 2-tier equalization scheme was proposed that separated natural resource revenues from other revenues. It was concluded that the government's previous response to high energy prices will not be appropriate for addressing the current price shock. A 2-tier equalization scheme will mean that resource-rich provinces have an opportunity to participate more fully in federal decision-making. 53 refs., 3 figs.
Revenues from natural resources during periods of high energy prices can create problems with the way the Canadian federal government distributes wealth through equalization. This paper traced the history of equalization in comparison with energy prices from the years 1973 to 2003. It was noted that the National Energy Program, section 92A of the Constitution, and the 5-province standard were all federal responses to initial energy price increases. It was suggested that current increases in energy prices demand a different response. The author examined a method of using the national average standard to calculate equalization payments as a means of eliminating the inequities created by the current 5-province standard, which excludes both Alberta and the Atlantic provinces. It was argued that the exclusion of Alberta's energy resources creates a false impression that other provinces such as British Columbia and Saskatchewan are rich in resources. It was suggested that fiscal imbalance between provinces is a significant challenge to the current Canadian government. New approaches to cash transfers to the provinces were discussed. A 2-tier equalization scheme was proposed that separated natural resource revenues from other revenues. It was concluded that the government's previous response to high energy prices will not be appropriate for addressing the current price shock. A 2-tier equalization scheme will mean that resource-rich provinces have an opportunity to participate more fully in federal decision-making. 53 refs., 3 figs
Anderson, Eric; Simester, Duncan
For most of the items they buy, consumers don't have an accurate sense of what the price should be. Ask them to guess how much a four-pack of 35-mm film costs, and you'll get a variety of wrong answers: Most people will underestimate; many will only shrug. Research shows that consumers' knowledge of the market is so far from perfect that it hardly deserves to be called knowledge at all. Yet people happily buy film and other products every day. Is this because they don't care what kind of deal they're getting? No. Remarkably, it's because they rely on retailers to tell them whether they're getting a good price. In subtle and not-so-subtle ways, retailers send signals to customers, telling them whether a given price is relatively high or low. In this article, the authors review several common pricing cues retailers use--"sale" signs, prices that end in 9, signpost items, and price-matching guarantees. They also offer some surprising facts about how--and how well--those cues work. For instance, the authors' tests with several mail-order catalogs reveal that including the word "sale" beside a price can increase demand by more than 50%. The practice of using a 9 at the end of a price to denote a bargain is so common, you'd think customers would be numb to it. Yet in a study the authors did involving a women's clothing catalog, they increased demand by a third just by changing the price of a dress from $34 to $39. Pricing cues are powerful tools for guiding customers' purchasing decisions, but they must be applied judiciously. Used inappropriately, the cues may breach customers' trust, reduce brand equity, and give rise to lawsuits.
Chang, Pei-Chann; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Wang, Yen-Wen
Data base classification suffers from two well known difficulties, i.e., the high dimensionality and non-stationary variations within the large historic data. This paper presents a hybrid classification model by integrating a case based reasoning technique, a Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT), and Genetic Algorithms (GA) to construct a decision-making system for data classification in various data base applications. The model is major based on the idea that the historic data base can be transformed into a smaller case-base together with a group of fuzzy decision rules. As a result, the model can be more accurately respond to the current data under classifying from the inductions by these smaller cases based fuzzy decision trees. Hit rate is applied as a performance measure and the effectiveness of our proposed model is demonstrated by experimentally compared with other approaches on different data base classification applications. The average hit rate of our proposed model is the highest among others.
Is there a link between the stock market and business investment? Empirical evidence indicates that there is. A firm tends to invest more when its stock price increases, and it tends to invest less when the price falls. In “Stock Prices and Business Investment,” Yaron Leitner discusses existing research that explains this relationship. One question under consideration is whether the stock market actually improves investment decisions.
Tony E Wong
Full Text Available When researchers complete a manuscript, they need to choose a journal to which they will submit the study. This decision requires to navigate trade-offs between multiple objectives. One objective is to share the new knowledge as widely as possible. Citation counts can serve as a proxy to quantify this objective. A second objective is to minimize the time commitment put into sharing the research, which may be estimated by the total time from initial submission to final decision. A third objective is to minimize the number of rejections and resubmissions. Thus, researchers often consider the trade-offs between the objectives of (i maximizing citations, (ii minimizing time-to-decision, and (iii minimizing the number of resubmissions. To complicate matters further, this is a decision with multiple, potentially conflicting, decision-maker rationalities. Co-authors might have different preferences, for example about publishing fast versus maximizing citations. These diverging preferences can lead to conflicting trade-offs between objectives. Here, we apply a multi-objective decision analytical framework to identify the Pareto-front between these objectives and determine the set of journal submission pathways that balance these objectives for three stages of a researcher's career. We find multiple strategies that researchers might pursue, depending on how they value minimizing risk and effort relative to maximizing citations. The sequences that maximize expected citations within each strategy are generally similar, regardless of time horizon. We find that the "conditional impact factor"-impact factor times acceptance rate-is a suitable heuristic method for ranking journals, to strike a balance between minimizing effort objectives and maximizing citation count. Finally, we examine potential co-author tension resulting from differing rationalities by mapping out each researcher's preferred Pareto front and identifying compromise submission strategies
Skiltere, D.; Bausova, I.
The purpose of the research is to demonstrate possibilities of simulation games in education process; in managerial ability compliance tests; for training of managers in small and middle business; in decision-making. The use of simulation games in decision making gives an opportunity to prevent these drawbacks, although this kind of the use of the games is not the most complicated, labour–consuming and eventually the most expensive.
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel approach to cope with the multi-criteria group decision-making problems. We give the pairwise comparisons based on the best-worst-method (BWM, which can decrease comparison times. Additionally, our comparison results are determined with the positive and negative aspects. In order to deal with the decision matrices effectively, we consider the elimination and choice translation reality (ELECTRE III method under the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relations environment. The ELECTRE III method is designed for a double-automatic system. Under a certain limitation, without bothering the decision-makers to reevaluate the alternatives, this system can adjust some special elements that have the most influence on the group’s satisfaction degree. Moreover, the proposed method is suitable for both the intuitionistic multiplicative preference relation and the interval valued fuzzy preference relations through the transformation formula. An illustrative example is followed to demonstrate the rationality and availability of the novel method.
基于非股权众筹,讨论当筹资人面对规模相当的两类潜在投资人时,对众筹产品的价格和质量决策;结合众筹引发的广告效应,研究众筹产品后续销售期的价格决策,并对两期产品价格进行对比;当潜在投资人规模不同时,探讨影响众筹成功率的因素及后续销售期决策.研究表明:根据投资商估值比值不同,众筹可能是单产品众筹也可能是双产品众筹,后续销售期产品也分为两类.单产品众筹下,后续销售价格小于众筹价格;双产品众筹下,低价产品销售价格大于众筹价格,高价产品销售价格和众筹价格分布于相同的区间.通过设计合理的众筹机制,筹资人可以成功地通过众筹推出新产品,并做出良好的后续销售期决策.%Based on non-equity crowdfunding,this study investigates the optimal pricing and quality decisions when the creator faces on two kinds of comparable potential investors.Combined with the advertising effect triggered by crowdfunding,we study the pricing decision of follow-up sales period and compare the pricing of two periods.When potential investors have different scales,we explore the factors that affect the crowdfunding success rate and follow-up period decisions.The research results are as follows.Based on different product valuations,crowdfunding can be single or double product mode and the follow-up period also has two modes.Under the single product mode,follow-up sales pricing is lower than crowdfunding,and under double products mode,the follow-up sales pricing of low quality product is larger than crowdfunding.The large quality product has same pricing interval under two modes.Through the design of reasonable crowdfunding mechanism,creators can introduce new products successfully,and make good follow-up sales decisions.
Policy-makers today have almost infinite climate-relevant scientific and other information available to them. The problem for climate change decision-making isn't missing science or inadequate knowledge of climate risks; the problem is that the "right" climate change actionable knowledge isn't getting to the right decision-maker, or is getting there too early or too late to effectively influence her decision-making. Actionable knowledge is not one-size-fit-all, and for a given decision-maker might involve scientific, economic, or risk-based information. Simply producing more and more information as we are today is not the solution, and actually makes it harder for individual decision-makers to access "their" actionable knowledge. The Climatographers began building the Climate Web five years ago to test the hypothesis that a knowledge management system could help navigate the gap between infinite information and individual actionable knowledge. Today the Climate Web's more than 1,500 index terms allow instant access to almost any climate change topic. It is a curated public-access knowledgebase of more than 1,000 books, 2,000 videos, 15,000 reports and articles, 25,000 news stories, and 3,000 websites. But it is also much more, linking together tens of thousands of individually extracted ideas and graphics, and providing Deep Dives into more than 100 key topics from changing probability distributions of extreme events to climate communications best practices to cognitive dissonance in climate change decision-making. The public-access Climate Web is uniquely able to support cross-silo learning, collaboration, and actionable knowledge dissemination. The presentation will use the Climate Web to demonstrate why knowledge management should be seen as a critical component of science and policy-making collaborations.
Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)
Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)
Full Text Available Integration of various logistical components in supply chain management, such as transportation, inventory control and facility location are becoming common practice to avoid sub-optimization in nowadays’ competitive environment. The integration of transportation and inventory decisions is known as inventory routing problem (IRP in the literature. The problem aims to determine the delivery quantity for each customer and the network routes to be used in each period, so that the total inventory and transportation costs are to be minimized. On the contrary of conventional IRP that each retailer can only provide its demand from the supplier, in this paper, a new multi-period, multi-item IRP model with considering lateral trans-shipment, back-log and financial decisions is proposed as a business model in a distinct organization. The main purpose of this paper is applying an applicable inventory routing model with considering real world setting and solving it with an appropriate method.
Nigro, Giovanna; Ciccarelli, Maria; Cosenza, Marina
Chasing losses is a behavioral marker and a diagnostic criterion for gambling disorder. It consists in continuing gambling to recoup previous losses. Although chasing has been recognized playing a central role in gambling disorder, research on this topic is relatively scarce, and it remains unclear whether chasing affects decision-making in behavioral tasks in which participants gain or loss some money. Even if several studies found that the more the gambling involvement, the poorer the decision-making, to date no research investigated the role of chasing in decision-making. The study aimed to first investigate the relation between chasing and decision-making in adult gamblers. One hundred and four VLT players were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), a computerized task measuring chasing, and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Correlation analysis showed that the higher the SOGS scores, the higher the propensity to chase, and the poorer the decision-making performance. Regression analysis revealed that chasing propensity and gambling severity predicted IGT performance. Mediation analysis indicated that the association between gambling severity and poor decision-making is mediated by chasing. Gambling severity was assessed by means of a self-report measure. The generalizability of findings is limited, since the study focused only on VLT players. This study provides the first evidence that chasing, along with gambling severity, affects decision-making, at least in behavioral tasks involving money. Since chasers and non-chasers could be two different sub-types of gamblers, treatment protocols should take into account the additive role of chasing in gambling disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Pricing strategies; information goods; bundling and versioning strategies; ... variety of industries including books, music, entertainment, gaming and education. ... Decision and Information Technologies Department, Robert H Smith School of ...
Ferrada, J.J.; Welch, T.D.; Osborne-Lee, I.W.; Nehls, J.W. Jr.
Systems analysis methods and tools have been developed and applied to the problem of selecting treatment technologies for mixed wastes. The approach, which is based on decision analysis, process modeling, and process simulation with a tool developed in-house, provides a one-of-a-kind resource for waste treatment alternatives evaluation and has played a key role in developing mandated treatment plans for Oak Ridge Reservation mixed waste
Full Text Available This study analyzes factors affecting the price of South Korea’s Certified Emission Reduction (CER using statistical methods. CER refers to the transaction price for the amount of carbon emitted. Analysis of results found a co-integration relationship among the price of South Korea’s CER, oil price (WTI, and South Korea’s maximum electric power demand, which means that there is a long-term relationship among the three variables. Based on this result, VECM (vector error correction model analysis, impulse response function, and variance decomposition were performed. As the oil price (WTI increases, the demand for gas in power generation in Korea declines while the demand for coal increases. This leads to increased greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2 emissions and increased price of South Korea’s CERs. In addition, rising oil prices (WTI cause a decline in demand for oil products such as kerosene, which results in an increase in South Korea’s maximum power demand.
One objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis that is useful for investigating the conditions shaping the respective roles of science and politics in decision making on technology policy. The analytical framework used focuses upon the interactive R and D process and specifies the factors affecting change in and of that process. The distinguishing feature of this new analytical framework is its utility for investigating how participants in and R and D process go about defining and solving a growing variety of problems that they encounter as the costs, impacts, and stakes of technological change become more readily apparent. The framework is then applied to a particularly complex and politically controversial technology, the nuclear breeder reactor. Britain and the United States, the original pioneers of technology utilizing plutonium to produce electricity, were singled out in order to test the utility of the analytical framework for the comparative study of the R and D decision-making process. Although the study does not purport to have exhausted all possible interpretations of this complex subject, the results of the study suggest that the interactive R and D process represents an improvement over conventional modes of conceptualizing how R and D policies are formulated and changed. Efforts to resolve major national and international problems relating to science and technology will ultimately succeed only to the extent that these efforts are grounded in a deeper understanding of the conditions affecting how these problems are defined and approached in actual decision-making environments
Charles, Cathy; Gafni, Amiram
Two international movements, evidence-based medicine (EBM) and shared decision-making (SDM) have grappled for some time with issues related to defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in their respective models of treatment decision-making. In this article, we identify and describe unresolved problems in the way that each movement addresses these issues. The starting point for this discussion is that at least two essential ingredients are needed for treatment decision-making: research information about treatment options and their potential benefits and risks; and the values/preferences of participants in the decision-making process. Both the EBM and SDM movements have encountered difficulties in defining the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision-making. In the EBM model of practice, there is no clear and consistent definition of patient values/preferences and no guidance is provided on how to integrate these into an EBM model of practice. Methods advocated to measure patient values are also problematic. Within the SDM movement, patient values/preferences tend to be defined and measured in a restrictive and reductionist way as patient preferences for treatment options or attributes of options, while broader underlying value structures are ignored. In both models of practice, the meaning and expected role of physician values in decision-making are unclear. Values clarification exercises embedded in patient decision aids are suggested by SDM advocates to identify and communicate patient values/preferences for different treatment outcomes. Such exercises have the potential to impose a particular decision-making theory and/or process onto patients, which can change the way they think about and process information, potentially impeding them from making decisions that are consistent with their true values. The tasks of clarifying the meaning, role and measurement of values/preferences in treatment decision
Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon
Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%
Bresson, G.; Lacourly, G.; Fitoussi, L.
The siting of nuclear power plants is chiefly dependent on political, economical, social and technical considerations. Among them, the problems raised by environmental protection have lately reached an increasing importance owing to the fast development of the number of plants. The selection of the site of a nuclear plant must often comes to seek out and compound between the operator who will try and reduce the cost price of his product to the lowest, and the protectionist who will try and reduce the hazard resulting from the plant operation as low as possible. Such a compromise is the result of a more or less empirical choice, within the frame of a cost-benefit analysis, in which theoretically, the choice between several possible solutions is made of the one giving the higher advantage (benefit). Practically, however, the difficulties encountered in the cost evaluation process often make the choice highly subjective and leave a broad range of appraisal to the deciding authority [fr
Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner
trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...
Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than
Pier Luigi Baldi
Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.
Brevers, Damien; Noël, Xavier; He, Qinghua; Melrose, James A; Bechara, Antoine
The aim of this study was to examine the impact of different neural systems on monetary decision making in frequent poker gamblers, who vary in their degree of problem gambling. Fifteen frequent poker players, ranging from non-problem to high-problem gambling, and 15 non-gambler controls were scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). During IGT deck selection, between-group fMRI analyses showed that frequent poker gamblers exhibited higher ventral-striatal but lower dorsolateral prefrontal and orbitofrontal activations as compared with controls. Moreover, using functional connectivity analyses, we observed higher ventral-striatal connectivity in poker players, and in regions involved in attentional/motor control (posterior cingulate), visual (occipital gyrus) and auditory (temporal gyrus) processing. In poker gamblers, scores of problem gambling severity were positively associated with ventral-striatal activations and with the connectivity between the ventral-striatum seed and the occipital fusiform gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus. Present results are consistent with findings from recent brain imaging studies showing that gambling disorder is associated with heightened motivational-reward processes during monetary decision making, which may hamper one's ability to moderate his level of monetary risk taking. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.
Ellaway, Rachel H; Poulton, Terry; Jivram, Trupti
In 2009, St George's University of London (SGUL) replaced their paper-based problem-based learning (PBL) cases with virtual patients for intermediate-level undergraduate students. This involved the development of Decision-Problem-Based Learning (D-PBL), a variation on progressive-release PBL that uses virtual patients instead of paper cases, and focuses on patient management decisions and their consequences. Using a case study method, this paper describes four years of developing and running D-PBL at SGUL from individual activities up to the ways in which D-PBL functioned as an educational system. A number of broad issues were identified: the importance of debates and decision-making in making D-PBL activities engaging and rewarding; the complexities of managing small group dynamics; the time taken to complete D-PBL activities; the changing role of the facilitator; and the erosion of the D-PBL process over time. A key point in understanding this work is the construction and execution of the D-PBL activity, as much of the value of this approach arises from the actions and interactions of students, their facilitators and the virtual patients rather than from the design of the virtual patients alone. At a systems level D-PBL needs to be periodically refreshed to retain its effectiveness.
Standardization in nuclear engineering makes two demands on a legal instrument which is to make this standardization possible and which is to promote standardization in the nuclear licensing practice: On the basis of just one licence for a constructional part or a component, its applicability in any number of subsequent facility licensing procedures has to be warranted, and by virtue of its binding effect, standardization has to create a sufficiently big confidence protection with manufacturers, constructioneers and operators to offer sufficiently effective incentives for standardization. The nuclear preliminary decision pursuant to section 7 a of the Atomic Energy Act in the form of the component preliminary decision appears to be unsuitable as a legal instrument for standardization, as the preliminary decision refers exclusively to the construction of a concrete facility. For standardization in reactor engineering, the construction design approval appears to be basically the proper legal instrument on account of its legal structure as well as its economic effect. Its binding effect encouters a limitation with regard to third parties in so far that this limitation could question again the binding effect in a subsequent site-dependent nuclear licence procedure. The legal structure of the extent of the binding effect, which is decisive for the suitability of the construction design approval, lies with the legislator. The following questions have to be regulated: Ought the applicant to have a legal claim on the granting of a construction design approval, or ought it to be at the discretion of the authorities, and secondly, the extent of the binding effect in terms of time on the basis of the fixation of a time limit, or on the basis of the possibility of subsequent conditions to be imposed, or the revocation. (orig./HP) [de
De Kruijf, J.
Water management issues are often complex, unstructured problems. They are complex, because they are part of a natural and human system wich consists of many diverse, interdependent elements, e.g. upstream events influence the water system downstream, different interdependent goverment layers,
This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, & 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for naïve learners and professionals, with a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem - as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as ...
It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)
The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)
Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Amaya, Ivan; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique; Terashima-Marín, Hugo
When solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), it is a common practice to rely on heuristics to decide which variable should be instantiated at each stage of the search. But, this ordering influences the search cost. Even so, and to the best of our knowledge, no earlier work has dealt with how first variable orderings affect the overall cost. In this paper, we explore the cost of finding high-quality orderings of variables within constraint satisfaction problems. We also study differen...
Vazquez, Carlos; Hallack, Michelle; Vazquez, Miguel
This paper discusses the problem of defining marginal costs when integer variables are present, in the context of short-term power auctions. Most of the proposals for price computation existing in the literature are concerned with short-term competitive equilibrium (generators should not be willing to change the dispatch assigned to them by the auctioneer), which implies operational-cost recovery for all of the generators accepted in the auction. However, this is in general not enough to choose between the different pricing schemes. We propose to include an additional criterion in order to discriminate among different pricing schemes: prices have to be also signals for generation expansion. Using this condition, we arrive to a single solution to the problem of defining prices, where they are computed as the shadow prices of the balance equations in a linear version of the unit commitment problem. Importantly, not every linearization of the unit commitment is valid; we develop the conditions for this linear model to provide adequate investment signals. Compared to other proposals in the literature, our results provide a strong motivation for the pricing scheme and a simple method for price computation. - Highlights: • Pricing proposals in power markets often deal with just accounting-cost recovery. • Including opportunity costs is an additional property required for efficient pricing. • We develop a framework to analyze the pricing proposals found in the literature. • We propose a pricing mechanism to include the costs of short-run integer decisions. • As it includes short-run opportunity costs, it provides efficient long-term signals.
Rathomy, Evan; Rodhiyah, Rodhiyah; Listyorini, Sari
Decision making consumers involves the intergration combining knowledge to evaluate two or more alternative behavior and choose the one of them. Many factors that must be considered in the decision to buy a product for consideration in decision making. Departing from consideration of for decision purchase, few customers choose car products other similar since goods was more offer design for affordable more dynamic and abreast of developments. This means that declining sales Avanza at PT. Toyo...
Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi
Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.
Y. G. Gorshkov
Full Text Available The requirements imposed on transfer by the personal biometric information in systems and communication networks according to Federal Law № 152 “Personal data” are defined. Lacks of used decisions protection of such biometric data, as the test speech information, including parameters of a speech path, and also acoustic signals of tones and noise of heart of the person on an example of telemedicine systems construction with the using of a network telephone channels general using and wireless networks Wi-Fi are considered. Directions of works are formulated on safety of the personal biometric data transferred in telecommunication systems.
On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab
Full Text Available Consumer preferences are dependent on problem framing and time perspective. For experiment’s participants avoiding of losses was less probable in distant time perspective than in near term. On the contrary, achieving gains in near future was less probable than in remote time. One may expect different reactions when presenting problem in terms of gains than in terms of losses. This can be exploited in promotion of highly desired social behaviours like savings for retirement, keeping good diet, investing in learning, and other advantageous activities that are usually put forward by consumers.
Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of analysis of effectiveness of the heuristic methods with limited depth-first search techniques of decision obtaining in the test problem of getting the shortest path in graph. The article briefly describes the group of methods based on the limit of branches number of the combinatorial search tree and limit of analyzed subtree depth used to solve the problem. The methodology of comparing experimental data for the estimation of the quality of solutions based on the performing of computational experiments with samples of graphs with pseudo-random structure and selected vertices and arcs number using the BOINC platform is considered. It also shows description of obtained experimental results which allow to identify the areas of the preferable usage of selected subset of heuristic methods depending on the size of the problem and power of constraints. It is shown that the considered pair of methods is ineffective in the selected problem and significantly inferior to the quality of solutions that are provided by ant colony optimization method and its modification with combinatorial returns.
The article deals with the problem of analysis of effectiveness of the heuristic methods with limited depth-first search techniques of decision obtaining in the test problem of getting the shortest path in graph. The article briefly describes the group of methods based on the limit of branches number of the combinatorial search tree and limit of analyzed subtree depth used to solve the problem. The methodology of comparing experimental data for the estimation of the quality of solutions based on the performing of computational experiments with samples of graphs with pseudo-random structure and selected vertices and arcs number using the BOINC platform is considered. It also shows description of obtained experimental results which allow to identify the areas of the preferable usage of selected subset of heuristic methods depending on the size of the problem and power of constraints. It is shown that the considered pair of methods is ineffective in the selected problem and significantly inferior to the quality of solutions that are provided by ant colony optimization method and its modification with combinatorial returns.
Full Text Available In business enterprises, especially the manufacturing industry, various problem situations may occur during the production process. A situation denotes an evaluation point to determine the status of a production process. A problem may occur if there is a discrepancy between the actual situation and the desired one. Thus, a problem-solving process is often initiated to achieve the desired situation. In the process, how to determine an action need to be taken to resolve the situation becomes an important issue. Therefore, this work uses a selection approach for optimized problem-solving process to assist workers in taking a reasonable action. A grey relational utility model and a multicriteria decision analysis are used to determine the optimal selection order of candidate actions. The selection order is presented to the worker as an adaptive recommended solution. The worker chooses a reasonable problem-solving action based on the selection order. This work uses a high-tech company’s knowledge base log as the analysis data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed selection approach is effective.
Full Text Available As the demand is more sensitive to price and sales effort, this paper investigates the issue of channel coordination for a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer facing price and effort dependent stochastic demand. A composite contract based on the quantity-restricted returns and target sales rebate can achieve coordination in this setting. Two main problems are addressed: (1 how to coordinate the decentralized supply chain; (2 how to determine the optimal sales effort level, pricing, and inventory decisions under the additive demand case. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of combined contract in supply chain coordination and highlight model sensitivities to parametric changes.
Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.
Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.
David J. Braden; Shmuel S. Oren
We investigate the firm's dynamic nonlinear pricing problem when facing consumers whose tastes vary according to a scalar index. We relax the standard assumption that the firm knows the distribution of this index. In general the firm should determine its marginal price schedule as if it were myopic, and produce information by lowering the price schedule; “bunching” consumers at positive purchase levels should be avoided. As a special case we also consider a market characterized by homogeneous...
Price the is essence of the economic interests the participants of the transport market, which manifests itself in maintaining or increasing of the main price component revenue. Pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport in a market economy is the most important management decisions affecting traffic volumes, profitability and competitiveness in the transport market. The market pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport is a concentrated expression of market conditio...
Clempner Julio B.
Full Text Available This paper analyzes and proposes a solution to the transfer pricing problem from the point of view of the Nash bargaining game theory approach. We consider a firm consisting of several divisions with sequential transfers, in which central management provides a transfer price decision that enables maximization of operating profits. Price transferring between divisions is negotiable throughout the bargaining approach. Initially, we consider a disagreement point (status quo between the divisions of the firm, which plays the role of a deterrent. We propose a framework and a method based on the Nash equilibrium approach for computing the disagreement point. Then, we introduce a bargaining solution, which is a single-valued function that selects an outcome from the feasible pay-offs for each bargaining problem that is a result of cooperation of the divisions of the firm involved in the transfer pricing problem. The agreement reached by the divisions in the game is the most preferred alternative within the set of feasible outcomes, which produces a profit-maximizing allocation of the transfer price between divisions. For computing the bargaining solution, we propose an optimization method. An example illustrating the usefulness of the method is presented.
Wang, Jian-qiang; Li, Xin-E; Chen, Xiao-hong
Soft sets have been regarded as a useful mathematical tool to deal with uncertainty. In recent years, many scholars have shown an intense interest in soft sets and extended standard soft sets to intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets, interval-valued fuzzy soft sets, and generalized fuzzy soft sets. In this paper, hesitant fuzzy soft sets are defined by combining fuzzy soft sets with hesitant fuzzy sets. And some operations on hesitant fuzzy soft sets based on Archimedean t-norm and Archimedean t-conorm are defined. Besides, four aggregation operations, such as the HFSWA, HFSWG, GHFSWA, and GHFSWG operators, are given. Based on these operators, a multicriteria group decision making approach with hesitant fuzzy soft sets is also proposed. To demonstrate its accuracy and applicability, this approach is finally employed to calculate a numerical example.
Amir Arzy Soltan
Full Text Available Nowadays credit scoring is an important issue for financial and monetary organizations that has substantial impact on reduction of customer attraction risks. Identification of high risk customer can reduce finished cost. An accurate classification of customer and low type 1 and type 2 errors have been investigated in many studies. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a new method, which chooses the best neural network architecture based on one column hidden layer MLP, multiple columns hidden layers MLP, RBFN and decision trees and ensembling them with voting methods. The proposed method of this paper is run on an Australian credit data and a private bank in Iran called Export Development Bank of Iran and the results are used for making solution in low customer attraction risks.
Full Text Available Drinking water pricing is a major challenge facing the water and wastewater industry in Iran where decisions of water pricing are essentially based on social, legal, administrative, and financial criteria with only a slight heed, if any, paid to economic considerations. Generally speaking, the price of water in Iran reflects a percentage fraction of the costs of water production and distribution while an economterically efficient model of water pricing is absent. This failure to account for economic considerations in water pricing has turned water into a commodity supplied either at a very low price or free of charge in cases. The current situation of water scarcity which is complicated by a multitude of environmental problems can only be ascribed to the present water pricing policies. It is, therefore, essential for the water sector to employ economic tools, adopt relevant approaches, and execute optimized strategic policies in an attempt to reduce the negative impacts of the imminent water crisis. Based on the above considerations, the present study was designed to investigate and review optimal water pricing policies at Arak Water and Wastewater Authority which functions as a business offering both domestic and non-domestic water services. The cost function considered is a translog one and the seemingly unrelated regressions are used for estimation. Results show that the domestic water price levied from customers covers only 33% of the total production and delivery costs such that Arak Water & Wastewater Authority practices the economy of scale in producing both domestic and non-domestic water. Considering the fact that pricing based on the marginal cost under the conditions of economy of scale leads to financial losses for Arak W&W Authority, it seems appropriate to calculate the second best price as suggested by Frank Ramsey. Thus, the marginal cost was combined with the price elasticity for the domestic water demand in the different
Zülch, Henning; Detzen, Dominic; Wünsch, Martin; Wulf, Torsten; Meißner, Philip
This paper analyzes the benefits of a pre-deal purchasing price allocation (pre-deal PPA), which acquirers have come to integrate into an acquisition process to examine the effects of a potential acquisition on the acquirer's financial statements. The authors take a management perspective and
Krugon, Seelam; Nagaraju, Dega
This work describes and proposes an two echelon inventory system under supply chain, where the manufacturer offers credit period to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The model is framed as demand is expressed as exponential function of retailer’s unit selling price. Mathematical model is framed to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. The major objective of the paper is to provide trade credit concept from the manufacturer to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The retailer would like to delay the payments of the manufacturer. At the first stage retailer and manufacturer expressions are expressed with the functions of ordering cost, carrying cost, transportation cost. In second stage combining of the manufacturer and retailer expressions are expressed. A MATLAB program is written to derive the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. From the optimality criteria derived managerial insights can be made. From the research findings, it is evident that the total cost of the supply chain is decreased with the increase in credit period under exponential price dependent demand. To analyse the influence of the model parameters, parametric analysis is also done by taking with help of numerical example.
Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg
Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...
Vera Eduardovna Toskunina
Full Text Available This article is devoted to the analysis of condition of female employment in regions of North of Russia. The research hypothesis is an assumption that the possibilities of female employment in northern regions of Russia are considerably reduced because of branch structure of economy with its raw trend. It increase a problem of female unemployment and causes necessity to take the additional measures for its adjustment by the executive authority The authors allocated the major factors influencing on the possibilities of women’s employment in a region. The tools are proved, and recommendations about decreasing the existing problems in the field of female employment in subjects of the Northern part of the Russian Federation are given on the basis of the analysis of statistical data, standard regulation, and policy documents.
Conclusion: The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients′ depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.
The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)
Zhu, Zheng; Andresen, Juan Carlos; Janzen, Katharina; Katzgraber, Helmut G.
We study the equilibrium and nonequilibrium properties of Boolean decision problems with competing interactions on scale-free graphs in a magnetic field. Previous studies at zero field have shown a remarkable equilibrium stability of Boolean variables (Ising spins) with competing interactions (spin glasses) on scale-free networks. When the exponent that describes the power-law decay of the connectivity of the network is strictly larger than 3, the system undergoes a spin-glass transition. However, when the exponent is equal to or less than 3, the glass phase is stable for all temperatures. First we perform finite-temperature Monte Carlo simulations in a field to test the robustness of the spin-glass phase and show, in agreement with analytical calculations, that the system exhibits a de Almeida-Thouless line. Furthermore, we study avalanches in the system at zero temperature to see if the system displays self-organized criticality. This would suggest that damage (avalanches) can spread across the whole system with nonzero probability, i.e., that Boolean decision problems on scale-free networks with competing interactions are fragile when not in thermal equilibrium.
Zhu, Zheng; Andresen, Juan Carlos; Moore, M. A.; Katzgraber, Helmut G.
We study the equilibrium and nonequilibrium properties of Boolean decision problems with competing interactions on scale-free networks in an external bias (magnetic field). Previous studies at zero field have shown a remarkable equilibrium stability of Boolean variables (Ising spins) with competing interactions (spin glasses) on scale-free networks. When the exponent that describes the power-law decay of the connectivity of the network is strictly larger than 3, the system undergoes a spin-glass transition. However, when the exponent is equal to or less than 3, the glass phase is stable for all temperatures. First, we perform finite-temperature Monte Carlo simulations in a field to test the robustness of the spin-glass phase and show that the system has a spin-glass phase in a field, i.e., exhibits a de Almeida-Thouless line. Furthermore, we study avalanche distributions when the system is driven by a field at zero temperature to test if the system displays self-organized criticality. Numerical results suggest that avalanches (damage) can spread across the whole system with nonzero probability when the decay exponent of the interaction degree is less than or equal to 2, i.e., that Boolean decision problems on scale-free networks with competing interactions can be fragile when not in thermal equilibrium.
Mazher, Wamidh Jalil; Ibrahim, Hadeel T.; Ucan, Osman N.; Bayat, Oguz
This paper aims to design a drone swarm network by employing free-space optical (FSO) communication for detecting and deep decision making of topological problems (e.g., oil pipeline leak), where deep decision making requires the highest image resolution. Drones have been widely used for monitoring and detecting problems in industrial applications during which the drone sends images from the on-air camera video stream using radio frequency (RF) signals. To obtain higher-resolution images, higher bandwidth (BW) is required. The current study proposed the use of the FSO communication system to facilitate higher BW for higher image resolution. Moreover, the number of drones required to survey a large physical area exceeded the capabilities of RF technologies. Our configuration of the drones is V-shaped swarm with one leading drone called mother drone (DM). The optical decode-and-forward (DF) technique is used to send the optical payloads of all drones in V-shaped swarm to the single ground station through DM. Furthermore, it is found that the transmitted optical power (Pt) is required for each drone based on the threshold outage probability of FSO link failure among the onboard optical-DF drones. The bit error rate of optical payload is calculated based on optical-DF onboard processing. Finally, the number of drones required for different image resolutions based on the size of the considered topological area is optimized.
Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Reza; Forouzanfar, Fateme; Ebrahimnejad, Sadoullah
This paper considers a single-sourcing network design problem for a three-level supply chain. For the first time, a novel mathematical model is presented considering risk-pooling, the inventory existence at distribution centers (DCs) under demand uncertainty, the existence of several alternatives to transport the product between facilities, and routing of vehicles from distribution centers to customer in a stochastic supply chain system, simultaneously. This problem is formulated as a bi-objective stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear programming model. The aim of this model is to determine the number of located distribution centers, their locations, and capacity levels, and allocating customers to distribution centers and distribution centers to suppliers. It also determines the inventory control decisions on the amount of ordered products and the amount of safety stocks at each opened DC, selecting a type of vehicle for transportation. Moreover, it determines routing decisions, such as determination of vehicles' routes starting from an opened distribution center to serve its allocated customers and returning to that distribution center. All are done in a way that the total system cost and the total transportation time are minimized. The Lingo software is used to solve the presented model. The computational results are illustrated in this paper.
MARIA MAGDALENA CRIVEANU
Full Text Available The current society imposes an alert pace on companies that need to adapt to change, become more flexible and adopt new strategies to maintain market share. Digital marketing is a useful tool for promoting products, as customers can access a range of product information at any time and from anywhere. At the same time, another advantage on the part of companies is the lower promotion costs as compared to traditional promotional methods, as well as the establishment of a connection and a communication bridge with each client. The most important component in the process of purchasing a product is inevitably the price. It communicates a series of information about the product and the customer so that the price can be an important element of persuasion in relation to other marketing strategies. Most of the time, the smallest price is the most important factor in making a decision about buying a product, and digital marketing offers the posibility to compare prices. In this sense, digital marketing can provide both an advantage and a disadvantage for traders, as the small price may invalidate other marketing strategies or product features. In this sense, pricing is a challenge for marketing departments because the pricing strategy is deferring from the sterile formula of pricing which meant covering costs and making profit. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which price is an important element in purchasing a product, as well as highlighting a variety of methods and techniques used in pricing. Quantitative research is based on a questionnaire applied to 100 respondents in order to identify the correct pricing strategy. Research results communicate an important message to merchants who have to adjust the price of each buyer individually, so that the buyer profile is particularly important in setting the price.
Cheali, Peam; Quaglia, Alberto; Gernaey, Krist V.
the design space, generic but simple models describing the processing tasks, and the formulation and solution of an MINLP problem under deterministic and stochastic conditions to identify the optimal processing route for multiple raw materials and products. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of market price...... uncertainties on the optimal solutions and calculate the associated risk to enable informed and risk-aware decisions....
In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic
Full Text Available Service providers can adjust the entrance price to the state of the demand in real life service systems where the customers' decision to receive the service, is based on this price, state of demand and other system parameters. We analyzed service provider's short and long term pricing problems in unobservable M/M/1 queues having the rational customers, where, for customers, the unit cost of waiting in the queue is higher than unit cost of waiting in the service. We showed that waiting in the queue has a clear negative effect on customers’ utilities, hence the service provider's price values. We also showed that, in the short term, monopolistic pricing is optimal for congested systems with high server utilization levels, whereas in the long term, market capturing pricing is more profitable.
Tahvili, Sahar; Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei; Biteus, Jonas
One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation
Tahvili, Sahar [Mälardalen University (Sweden); Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei [Division of Applied Mathematics, Mälardalen University (Sweden); Biteus, Jonas [Scania CV (Sweden)
One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation.
Heidenreich, Sebastian; Watson, Verity; Ryan, Mandy; Phimister, Euan
This paper investigates if respondents' choice to not consider all characteristics of a multiattribute health service may represent preferences. Over the last decade, an increasing number of studies account for attribute non-attendance (ANA) when using discrete choice experiments to elicit individuals' preferences. Most studies assume such behaviour is a heuristic and therefore uninformative. This assumption may result in misleading welfare estimates if ANA reflects preferences. This is the first paper to assess if ANA is a heuristic or genuine preference without relying on respondents' self-stated motivation and the first study to explore this question within a health context. Based on findings from cognitive psychology, we expect that familiar respondents are less likely to use a decision heuristic to simplify choices than unfamiliar respondents. We employ a latent class model of discrete choice experiment data concerned with National Health Service managers' preferences for support services that assist with performance concerns. We present quantitative and qualitative evidence that in our study ANA mostly represents preferences. We also show that wrong assumptions about ANA result in inadequate welfare measures that can result in suboptimal policy advice. Future research should proceed with caution when assuming that ANA is a heuristic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.
Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) is a rational approach that can be used to identify the equipment of facilities that may turn out to be critical with respect to safety, to availability, or to maintenance costs. Is is dor these critical pieces of equipment alone that a corrective (one waits for a failure) or preventive (the type and frequency are specified) maintenance policy is established. But this approach has limitations: - when there is little operating feedback and it concerns rare events affecting a piece of equipment judged critical on a priori grounds (how is it possible, in this case, to decide whether or not it is critical, since there is conflict between the gravity of the potential failure and its frequency?); - when the aim is propose an optimal maintenance frequency for a critical piece of equipment - changing the maintenance frequency hitherto applied may cause a significant drift in the observed reliability of the equipment, an aspect not generally taken into account in the RCM approach. In these two situations, expert judgments can be combined with the available operating feedback (Bayesian approach) and the combination of risk of failure and economic consequences taken into account (statistical decision theory) to achieve a true optimization of maintenance policy choices. This paper presents an application on the maintenance of diesel generator component
Full Text Available Priced timed automata provide a natural model for quantitative analysis of real-time systems and have been successfully applied in various scheduling and planning problems. The optimal reachability problem for linearly-priced timed automata is known to be PSPACE-complete. In this paper we investigate priced timed automata with more general prices and show that in the most general setting the optimal reachability problem is undecidable. We adapt and implement the construction of Audemard, Cimatti, Kornilowicz, and Sebastiani for non-linear priced timed automata using state-of-the-art theorem prover Z3 and present some preliminary results.
Full Text Available This paper is devoted to the issues of corporate income taxation in Ukraine and finding ways to resolve them in the context of European integration. The aim of this paper is demonstrate ways to improve corpo- rate income taxation on the basis of balancing the interests of taxpayers against those of the government. The paper will highlight the key issues of corporate income taxation in Ukraine with its large share of unprofitable enterprises, unequal regulations for different corporate taxpayers and the requirement to pay tax advances even where there is an absence of taxable income. Based on our analysis, the causes of the origin and deepening problems of corporate income taxation in Ukraine will be demonstrated. A compar- ative analysis of income taxation in Poland and Ukraine was performed. It is believed that some elements of the Polish experience in the taxation of income can be applied to Ukraine.
The subject of my dissertation is the study of coal procurement by electric utilities in the US over 2 decades, from 1979 to 2000. Energy markets are typically characterized by severe contracting problems. Buyers and sellers therefore employ various instruments, such as contract length or complex pricing arrangements, to restrict these problems. Relationship specific investment, wherein buyers make investments specific to their suppliers, has been advanced as a prominent explanation for contractual length. Investment decisions are however endogenous in length or pricing, making causal identification of the role of investment specificity difficult. In my first chapter, I attempt a resolution. I use the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment as an exogenous shifter of the extent of relationship specific investment. A key feature of the Amendment's design helps me define a difference-in-difference model arguably free of the endogeneity issues discussed above. I find that the plants forced into switching - Phase I plants located in the US Midwest - are more likely to choose fixed price contracts than those that were not. Further they also write contracts of shorter terms, with the reduction being approximately 30%. Considerably little is known about the performance implications of contractual choices. These form the basis for Chapter 2. Here I find prices to be lower, by between 5% to 20% of the total transaction price, but the probability of renegotiation higher, under fixed price contracts than under escalator or cost-plus contracts. Contract choices appear consistent with a trade-off between establishing incentives ex-ante and lowering negotiation costs ex-post, with relationship specific investments in particular making such a trade-off compelling. Chapter 3 considers the regulatory environment these utilities were subject to. Both incentive based regulation as well as the restructuring of electricity generation are smaller in comparison to relationship specific investment
KAUL, A; WITTINK, DR
Consumers' sensitivities to price changes are an important input to strategic and tactical decisions. It has been argued that price sensitivities depend on factors such as advertising Prior studies on the effect of advertising on consumer price sensitivity have found seemingly conflicting results.
Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P
Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Kuo, H. C.; Kuo, H. C.; Nakhata, C.; Nakhata, C.
Previous research indicates the aversive effect of low consumer ratings on consumers’ purchasing decisions. This paper aims to apply decision justifiability theory to investigate how price promotions – price discount and price bundling – can reduce this effect. 517-527.
A. V. Skrypnikov
working out in detail of them as far as development and clarification of other subsystems of management information, i.e. decision of questions of development of complex hardware in the conditions of incompleteness of data about the info-base of the system.
Keith, D.M.; Raper, J.W.
A fundamental premise of negotiated pricing as a demand-side management (DSM) tool is that price determines cost. As the ultimate objective of energy efficiency is to increase electromotive work while conserving resources, negotiated prices can have a significant impact as a DSM tool to force costs down. Three examples are offered of the effect of negotiated pricing as a DSM tool. The examples are a small hydroelectric company and an electric utility authority owned, a utility-to-customer example of negotiated pricing with the Public Service Company of Oklahoma's (PSO) system, and a large paper mill on PSO's system. Some of the major problems associated with negotiated pricing, outside of the human effort of finding and training knowledgeable and skilled negotiators, are: obtaining enough information about the customer or potential customer to be able to determine that in negotiating prices the utility is not giving away more benefits than the utility will gain; developing a pricing plan that fits both the customer's and utility's existing and potential future mode of operation; assuring that other customers who cannot negotiate on their own behalf are not adversely affected by utility revenue shortfalls; making such negotiated prices available to all similarly situated customers, so as not to inadvertently create unfair competitive advantages among them; and defining the shared benefits before and after the fact as a result of having negotiated prices in the first place
Heba Abdel Aziz
Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of room pricing in hotels. We propose a hotel revenue management model based on dynamic pricing to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The two pillars of the proposed framework are a novel optimization model, and a multi-class scheme similar to the one implemented in airlines. Our hypothesis is that this framework can overcome the limitations associated with the research gaps in pricing literature; and can also contribute significantly in increasing the revenue of hotels. We test this hypothesis on three different approaches, and the results show an increase in revenue compared to the classical model used in literature.
Lu, Lihao; Zhang, Jianxiong; Tang, Wansheng
An inventory system for perishable items with limited replenishment capacity is introduced in this paper. The demand rate depends on the stock quantity displayed in the store as well as the sales price. With the goal to realise profit maximisation, an optimisation problem is addressed to seek for the optimal joint dynamic pricing and replenishment policy which is obtained by solving the optimisation problem with Pontryagin's maximum principle. A joint mixed policy, in which the sales price is a static decision variable and the replenishment rate remains to be a dynamic decision variable, is presented to compare with the joint dynamic policy. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the joint dynamic one, and further show the effects of different system parameters on the optimal joint dynamic policy and the maximal total profit.
Guo, Qian; Zhou, Tiantong; Li, Wenjie; Dong, Li; Wang, Suhong; Zou, Ling
Executive function refers to conscious control in psychological process which relates to thinking and action. Emotional decision is a part of hot executive function and contains emotion and logic elements. As a kind of important social adaptation ability, more and more attention has been paid in recent years. Gambling task can be well performed in the study of emotional decision. As fMRI researches focused on gambling task show not completely consistent brain activation regions, this study adopted EEG-fMRI fusion technology to reveal brain neural activity related with feedback stimuli. In this study, an EEG-informed fMRI analysis was applied to process simultaneous EEG-fMRI data. First, relative power-spectrum analysis and K-means clustering method were performed separately to extract EEG-fMRI features. Then, Generalized linear models were structured using fMRI data and using different EEG features as regressors. The results showed that in the win versus loss stimuli, the activated regions almost covered the caudate, the ventral striatum (VS), the orbital frontal cortex (OFC), and the cingulate. Wide activation areas associated with reward and punishment were revealed by the EEG-fMRI integration analysis than the conventional fMRI results, such as the posterior cingulate and the OFC. The VS and the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) were found when EEG power features were performed as regressors of GLM compared with results entering the amplitudes of feedback-related negativity (FRN) as regressors. Furthermore, the brain region activation intensity was the strongest when theta-band power was used as a regressor compared with the other two fusion results. The EEG-based fMRI analysis can more accurately depict the whole-brain activation map and analyze emotional decision problems.
Jan Vilasuso; Fredric C. Menz
In this paper, the authors develop and test a model to explain travel expenditures in the United States by Canadians. The model examines a consumer's choice problem where income is allocated between domestic and foreign consumption. Consumers do not know the foreign price level and base their spending in part on expected foreign price. In addition to expected foreign price, domestic price, exchange rates, income, and foreign price uncertainty influence travel spending. Empirically, each deter...
Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed
Wood, Nathan; Jones, Jeanne; Schelling, John; Schmidtlein, Mathew
Tsunami vertical-evacuation (TVE) refuges can be effective risk-reduction options for coastal communities with local tsunami threats but no accessible high ground for evacuations. Deciding where to locate TVE refuges is a complex risk-management question, given the potential for conflicting stakeholder priorities and multiple, suitable sites. We use the coastal community of Ocean Shores (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, multi-criteria decision analysis for framing the locational problem of TVE siting. We demonstrate a mixed-methods approach that uses potential TVE sites identified at community workshops, geospatial analysis to model changes in pedestrian evacuation times for TVE options, and statistical analysis to develop metrics for comparing population tradeoffs and to examine influences in decision making. Results demonstrate that no one TVE site can save all at-risk individuals in the community and each site provides varying benefits to residents, employees, customers at local stores, tourists at public venues, children at schools, and other vulnerable populations. The benefit of some proposed sites varies depending on whether or not nearby bridges will be functioning after the preceding earthquake. Relative rankings of the TVE sites are fairly stable under various criteria-weighting scenarios but do vary considerably when comparing strategies to exclusively protect tourists or residents. The proposed geospatial framework can serve as an analytical foundation for future TVE siting discussions.
Garland, Ann F; Taylor, Robin; Brookman-Frazee, Lauren; Baker-Ericzen, Mary; Haine-Schlagel, Rachel; Liu, Yi Hui; Wong, Sarina
Race/ethnic disparities in utilization of children's mental health care have been well documented and are particularly concerning given the long-term risks of untreated mental health problems (Institute of Medicine, 2003; Kessler et al. Am J Psychiatry 152:10026-1032, 1995). Research investigating the higher rates of unmet need among race/ethnic minority youths has focused primarily on policy, fiscal, and individual child or family factors that can influence service access and use. Alternatively, this study examines provider behavior as a potential influence on race/ethnic disparities in mental health care. The goal of the study was to examine whether patient (family) race/ethnicity influences physician diagnostic and treatment decision-making for childhood disruptive behavior problems. The study utilized an internet-based video vignette with corresponding survey of 371 randomly selected physicians from across the USA representing specialties likely to treat these patients (pediatricians, family physicians, general and child psychiatrists). Participants viewed a video vignette in which only race/ethnicity of the mother randomly varied (non-Hispanic White, Hispanic, and African American) and then responded to questions about diagnosis and recommended treatments. Physicians assigned diagnoses such as oppositional defiant disorder (48 %) and attention deficit disorder (63 %) to the child, but there were no differences in diagnosis based on race/ethnicity. The majority of respondents recommended psychosocial treatment (98 %) and/or psychoactive medication treatment (60 %), but there were no significant differences based on race/ethnicity. Thus, in this study using mock patient stimuli and controlling for other factors, such as insurance coverage, we did not find major differences in physician diagnostic or treatment decision-making based on patient race/ethnicity.
This paper deals with optimal pricing of a personalized product such as a personal portrait or photo.A new model of the pricing structure inspired by two real-life cases is introduced to the literature and solved to obtain optimal photo sitting fees and the final product price.A sensitivity analysis with respect to the problem parameters is performed.
Li, Y. L.; Bi, J. T.; Sun, H. J.
The spatial price problem means that if the supply price plus the transportation cost is less than the demand price, there exists a trade. Thus, after an amount of exchange, the demand price will decrease. This process is continuous until an equilibrium state is obtained. However, how the trade network structure affects this process has received little attention. In this paper, we give a evolving model to describe the levels of spatial price on different complex network structures. The simulation results show that the network with shorter path length is sensitive to the variation of prices.
The present thesis deals with the foundations for solving the decision problem of site selection for a feasibility study of gas-fired power plants, based on realistic and practical statements, under a business approach. The analysis of different theories and the investigation of site-relevant decision criteria has illustrated the broad range of site-specific factors and criteria that are to be taken into account. On the basis of existing projects, in which site theories were analysed for vari...
Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Samahita, Margaret
Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) pricing schemes are becoming increasingly popular. We develop a model incorporating self-image into the buyer’s utility function and introduce heterogeneity in consumption utility and image-sensitivity, generating different purchase decisions and optimal prices across...... individuals. When a good’s fixed price is lower than a threshold fair value, PWYW can lead to a lower utility. This may result in a lower purchase rate and higher average price, accounting for previously unexplained field experimental evidence. An increase in the threshold value decreases the buyer’s utility...... and may further lower the purchase rate, resulting in a further increase in purchase price....
This papers solves the optimal harvesting time problem of a non- industrial private forest (NIPF) owner who typically has a forest management plan and merchantable forest stands. The optimal harvesting time is defined in a volatile market situation. The infinite period problem is also formulated to allow for variable stumpage prices and reforestation costs in a two-period framework, the first of which covers the near future with dynamic price and cost functions and the second the rest of the infinite future with trend price and cost functions. The existence and uniqueness of an optimal policy is demonstrated on the basis of the explicit quasi- concavity of the objective functions. First, the solutions are constructed with prices and costs dependent on stand age only. Both cases in which the same prices and costs hold for all periods and cases in which there are dynamic prices and costs in the first period and trend ones in subsequent periods are considered. Second, the age-dependent functions are multiplied separately by the calendar time dependent exponential terms. Solutions are provided both in the case with the same age-dependent functions and the case with dynamic functions for the first period and trend functions for the subsequent periods. The sensitivity and comparative static analyses are studied with respect to the interest rate, price and cost changes, both analytically and numerically. Optimal rotation solutions are presented with alternative competing volume growth functions. Final results are provided by a gross income growth function. Competing optimisation models are discussed, and alternative volume growth models and a value growth model are compared. The key notion of the research is the sensitivity and comparative static analysis of the optimal rotation solutions with respect to roundwood prices, reforestation costs and interest rates. Different local market parameter and alternative growth data estimates are applied in testing the impact of
The Congestion Pricing Primer Series is part of : FHWAs outreach efforts to introduce the various : aspects of congestion pricing to decision-makers and : transportation professionals in the United States. The : primers are intended to lay out the...
Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika
Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.
Wen-Hsien Tsai; Jui-Chu Chang; Chu-Lun Hsieh; Tsen-Shu Tsaur; Chung-Wei Wang
Carbon emissions are receiving greater scrutiny in many countries due to international forces to reduce anthropogenic global climate change. Carbon taxation is one of the most common carbon emission regulation policies, and companies must incorporate it into their production and pricing decisions. Activity-based costing (ABC) and the theory of constraints (TOC) have been applied to solve product mix problems; however, a challenging aspect of the product mix problem involves evaluating joint m...
Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Zhong, Jin
Classical spot pricing theory is based on multipliers of the primal problem of an optimal market dispatch, i.e., the solution of the dual problem. However, the dual problem of market dispatch may yield multiple solutions. In these circumstances, spot pricing or any standard pricing practice based...... on a strict extension of the principles of spot pricing and surplus allocation, we propose a new pricing methodology that can yield unique, impartial, and robust solution. The new method has been analyzed and compared with other pricing approaches in accordance with spot pricing theory. Case studies support...
Takamasa Akiyama; Varangis, Panos
Fluctuating prices for raw jute have been viewed as contributing to economic problems in the jute subsector. Price fluctuations were thought to reduce the jute farmers'welfare and there has been concern about the costs of parastatals'stocking operations in attempts to stabilize jute prices and incomes. The authors examine these fluctuations and analyze policies that might reduce them. They find that price fluctuations for raw jute reduce farmers'welfare only slightly because farmers'activitie...
Bayer, Christian; Siebenmorgen, Markus; Tempone, Raul
We consider the problem of pricing basket options in a multivariate Black–Scholes or Variance-Gamma model. From a numerical point of view, pricing such options corresponds to moderate and high-dimensional numerical integration problems with non
Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R
Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.
Full Text Available Aim: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills on the reduction of addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics. Method: The design of this study was experimental design namely: pre and post test with control group. The population included all addicts referring to Sanandaj self-report centers (500 addicts. By random sampling, 60 addicts were selected and completed the attitude questionnaire to narcotics use. Each of experimental groups was under problem-solving and decision-making skills training for ten 90 minute sessions. No training given to control group. Results: After training, two experimental groups significantly had lower levels of positive attitude to narcotics use. No difference was observed between two experimental groups. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills can reduce the addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics.
Loutia, Amine; Mellios, Constantin; Andriosopoulos, Kostas
This paper investigates the effect of OPEC production decisions (increase, cut, maintain) on both WTI and Brent crude oil prices between Q1 1991 and Q1 2015 by employing the event study methodology and by using two indices as benchmarks (BCI and S&P GSCI). We employ an EGARCH model to take into account the high volatility of oil prices and some stylized facts characterizing this volatility. We find that the impact of OPEC’s announcements on oil prices (i)evolves over time and among decisions, (ii) is more significant for production cut and maintain, (iii) is different for WTI and Brent prices, and (iv) is sensitive to the benchmark index. Moreover, OPEC’s decisions depend on the exploration and extraction cost of more expensive/unconventional oil resources. - Highlights: • The impact of OPEC's production decisions on both BRENT and WTI is examined. • We adopt the event study methodology. • An EGARCH model is used to capture some features characterizing oil prices volatility. • OPEC decisions effect changes over time and depends on production decisions and oil prices. • OPEC is less influential when prices are high and unconventional resources are viable.
Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie
Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options
Kolasa, Katarzyna; Kalo, Zoltan; Zah, Vladimir
According to some experts, there is still room for improvement with regard to the inclusion of ethical considerations in Health Technology Assessment (HTA). The pros and cons of the introduction of non-economic criteria in the HTA process in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are discussed. In comparison to Western Europe, financial considerations are even more important in CEE settings; however, it could also be said that attachment to equity and justice is part of CEE's heritage. Therefore, the trade-off between conflicting principles is evaluated. Expert commentary: To ensure the right balance between equity and efficiency in decision making, the current HTA framework has to be further augmented to allow all conflicting criteria to be addressed to a satisfactory degree. Following other examples, the applicability of multi criteria decision analysis technique to CEE settings should be further investigated.
Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Soares, Joao; Morais, Hugo
Retail energy providers (REPs) can employ different strategies such as offering demand response (DR) programs, participating in bilateral contracts, and employing self-generation distributed generation (DG) units to avoid financial losses in the volatile electricity markets. In this paper......, the problem of setting dynamic retail sales price by a REP is addressed with a robust optimization technique. In the proposed model, the REP offers price-based DR programs while it faces uncertainties in the wholesale market price. The main contribution of this paper is using a robust optimization approach...
Full Text Available In multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM, one of the most important problems is to determine the weights of criteria and experts. This paper intends to present two Min-Max models to optimize the point estimates of the weights. Since each expert generally possesses a uniform viewpoint on the importance (weighted value of each criterion when he/she needs to rank the alternatives, the objective function in the first model is to minimize the maximum variation between the actual score vector and the ideal one for all the alternatives such that the optimal weights of criteria are consistent in ranking all the alternatives for the same expert. The second model is designed to optimize the weights of experts such that the obtained overall evaluation for each alternative can collect the perspectives of the experts as many as possible. Thus, the objective function in the second model is to minimize the maximum variation between the actual vector of evaluations and the ideal one for all the experts, such that the optimal weights can reduce the difference among the experts in evaluating the same alternative. For the constructed Min-Max models, another focus in this paper is on the development of an efficient algorithm for the optimal weights. Some applications are employed to show the significance of the models and algorithm. From the numerical results, it is clear that the developed Min-Max models more effectively solve the MCGDM problems including the ones with incomplete score matrices, compared with the methods available in the literature. Specifically, by the proposed method, (1 the evaluation uniformity of each expert on the same criteria is guaranteed; (2 The overall evaluation for each alternative can collect the judgements of the experts as many as possible; (3 The highest discrimination degree of the alternatives is obtained.
Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.
The second part of this dissertation takes a more general asset pricing perspective. In particular, it investigates the impact of human capital on asset pricing. Investors' portfolio decisions may be affected by their human capital. For instance, an investor who works in the IT sector may want to
Zwart, Bert; Boer, Arnoud
We study a dynamic pricing problem with finite inventory and parametric uncertainty on the demand distribution. Products are sold during selling seasons of finite length, and inventory that is unsold at the end of a selling season, perishes. The goal of the seller is to determine a pricing strategy that maximizes the expected revenue. Inference on the unknown parameters is made by maximum likelihood estimation. We propose a pricing strategy for this problem, and show that the Regret - which i...
The objective of the study was to determine the decision-making processes concerning major model year product introductions and alterations in the automotive industry as well as to investigate techniques of price positioning, product and image positi...
The objective of the study was to determine the decision-making processes concerning major model year product introductions and alterations in the automotive industry as well as to investigate techniques of price positioning, product and image positi...
With the impact of the advertising for both market demand and recovery , using game theory , established the integrated decision models (centralized decision-making , manufacturer recovery and advertising , retailer recovery and advertising ) and manufac-turer advertising decision models (manufacturer recycling , retailer recycling ) , we got the profit of each members , total profit , optimal advertising level , products wholesale price , retail price in the supply chain , and comparative analysis and simulation analysis were given at last . Research results show that , the higher efficiency of advertising in the two aspects of recovery and marketing , advertising invest-ment is more , and it makes the market demand and product recovery rate increasing , ultimately improve profits of manufacturer , retailer , and the overall . According to different market target , the manufacture can adopt different channel strategy .%在广告既能影响市场需求又能影响回收的条件下，本文运用博弈论，建立了一体化决策模式（集中决策、制造商回收广告、零售商回收广告）与制造商广告决策模式（制造商广告时制造商回收、零售商回收），得出最优广告水平、产品批发价、产品零售价及供应链中各成员的利润与总体利润，并对结果进行了比较与仿真分析。研究结果表明广告在回收与营销两个方面的效率越高，则广告投入也就越多，使得市场需求量与产品回收率增加，最终提高了制造商、零售商、总体利润。针对不同的市场目标，可以采用不同的渠道策略。
Karya, D. F.; Katias, P.; Herlambang, T.
Shares are securities as the possession or equity evidence of an individual or corporation over an enterprise, especially public companies whose activity is stock trading. Investment in stocks trading is most likely to be the option of investors as stocks trading offers attractive profits. In determining a choice of safe investment in the stocks, the investors require a way of assessing the stock prices to buy so as to help optimize their profits. An effective method of analysis which will reduce the risk the investors may bear is by predicting or estimating the stock price. Estimation is carried out as a problem sometimes can be solved by using previous information or data related or relevant to the problem. The contribution of this paper is that the estimates of stock prices in high, low, and close categorycan be utilized as investors’ consideration for decision making in investment. In this paper, stock price estimation was made by using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root method (EnKF-SR) and Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF). The simulation results showed that the resulted estimation by applying EnKF method was more accurate than that by the EnKF-SR, with an estimation error of about 0.2 % by EnKF and an estimation error of 2.6 % by EnKF-SR.
Corson, Alan; And Others
Presented are key issues to be addressed by state, regional, and local governments and agencies in creating effective hazardous waste management programs. Eight chapters broadly frame the topics which state-level decision makers should consider. These chapters include: (1) definition of hazardous waste; (2) problem definition and recognition; (3)…
Polka, Walter S.; Litchka, Peter R.; Calzi, Frank F.; Denig, Stephen J.; Mete, Rosina E.
The major focus of this paper is a gender-based analysis of school superintendent decision-making and problem-solving as well as an investigation of contemporary leadership dilemmas. The findings are based on responses from 258 superintendents of K-12 school districts in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania collected over a…
B. Kaynar; S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans)
textabstractIn this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show
Cho, Hsun Jung; Mak, Hou Kit
Supply chain-related game theoretical applications have been discussed for decades. This research accounts for the emergence of a dominant retailer, and the retailer Stackelberg pricing models of distribution channels. Research in the channel pricing game may use different definitions of pricing decision variables. In this research, we pay attentions to the retailer Stackelberg pricing game, and discuss the effects when choosing different decision variables. According the literature it was shown that the strategies between channel members depend critically on the form of the demand function. Two different demand forms—linear and non-linear—will be considered in our numerical example respectively. Our major finding is the outcomes are not relative to manufacturers' pricing decisions but to the retailer's pricing decision and choosing percentage margin as retailer's decision variable is the best strategy for the retailer but worst for manufacturers. The numerical results show that it is consistence between linear and non-linear demand form.
Vacca, Caludia; Acosta, Angela; Rodriguez, Ivan
To suggest a scheme of decision making on pricing for medicines that are part of Free Regulated Regime, a regulation way of the pharmaceutical pricing policy in Colombia. It includes two regulation tools: international reference prices and a cost minimization analysis methodology. Following the current pricing policy, international reference prices were built with data from five countries for selected medicines, which are under Free Regulated Regime. The cost minimization analysis methodology includes selection of those medicines under Free Regulated Regime with possible comparable medicines, selection of comparable medicines, and treatment costs evaluation. As a result of the estimate of International Reference Prices, four medicines showed in the domestic pharmaceutical market a bigger price than the Reference Price. A scheme of decision-making was design containing two possible regulation tools for medicines that are part of Free Regulated Regime: estimate of international reference prices and cost minimization analysis methodology. This diagram would be useful to assist the pricing regulation of Free Regulated Regime in Colombia. As present results shows, international reference prices make clear when domestic prices are higher than those of reference countries. In the current regulation of pharmaceutical prices in Colombia, the international reference price has been applied for four medicines. Would be suitable to extend this methodology to other medicines of high impact on the pharmaceutical expenditure, in particular those covered by public funding. The availability of primary sources about treatment costs in Colombia needs to be improved as a requirement to develop pharmaco-economic evidence. SISMED is an official database that represents an important primary source of medicines prices in Colombia. Nevertheless, having into account that SISMED represents an important advantage of transparency in medicines prices, it needs to be improved in quality and data
Christie, Vanessa L.; Landess, David J.
In the international arena, decision makers are often swayed away from fact-based analysis by their own individual cultural and political bias. Modeling and Simulation-based training can raise awareness of individual predisposition and improve the quality of decision making by focusing solely on fact vice perception. This improved decision making methodology will support the multinational collaborative efforts of military and civilian leaders to solve challenges more effectively. The intent of this experimental research is to create a framework that allows decision makers to "come to the table" with the latest and most significant facts necessary to determine an appropriate solution for any given contingency.
Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country
V. I. Parshin
Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.
Rognlien Dahl, Kristina, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [University of Oslo, Department of Mathematics (Norway)
We consider the pricing problem of a seller with delayed price information. By using Lagrange duality, a dual problem is derived, and it is proved that there is no duality gap. This gives a characterization of the seller's price of a contingent claim. Finally, we analyze the dual problem, and compare the prices offered by two sellers with delayed and full information respectively.
Rognlien Dahl, Kristina
We consider the pricing problem of a seller with delayed price information. By using Lagrange duality, a dual problem is derived, and it is proved that there is no duality gap. This gives a characterization of the seller’s price of a contingent claim. Finally, we analyze the dual problem, and compare the prices offered by two sellers with delayed and full information respectively
Hultberg, Patrik T.; Calonge, David Santandreu
One of the fundamental tenets of economics is that decisions are often the result of optimization problems subject to resource constraints. Consumers optimize utility, subject to constraints imposed by prices and income. As economics faculty, instructors attempt to maximize student learning while being constrained by their own and students'…
Pop Larisa Nicoleta
Full Text Available The volatility of commodity prices has become once again a matter of profound and controversial debates for both political and academic spheres worldwide in the framework of the global economy severely distressed by the recent economic turbulences. Although commodity markets were already notorious for their price instability, the events the world economy experienced in the years 2000s offered new connotations to this phenomenon. In the first decade of this millennium, the commodity markets have struggled with high volatility, with prices reaching historical peaks just to crash dramatically some months later and very soon to restart their rise. The significant increase in volatility generated many debates about its triggering factors, the implications in terms of risk exposure of economic actors, but also the need for reconfiguring regulatory policy frameworks. The quest for the most appropriate means to deal with commodity price turbulences has known different stages over the years. Decision makers worldwide have sought alternatives, formulated and tested various mechanisms whose central aim was to mitigate price fluctuations. Governments formulate and implement consistent regulatory policies whose international coordination is a ‘sine qua non’ condition for stabilizing these markets. However, the turbulences on commodity markets often generate policy responses that sometimes exacerbate rather than mitigate the price instability. The purpose of this paper is to assess the subject of governance regarding commodity price stabilization, offering a retrospective look at the mechanisms implemented over the years, with a central focus on the International Commodity Agreements – instruments through which in the previous decades the producer and consumer governments worldwide pursued price stabilization for some key commodities like sugar, coffee, cocoa, tin and natural rubber. After analyzing the effectiveness of the International Agreements and
Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik
A large part of the decision-making problems actors of the power system are facing on a daily basis requires scenarios for day-ahead electricity market prices. These scenarios are most likely to be generated based on marginal predictive densities for such prices, then enhanced with a temporal...... dependence structure. A semi-parametric methodology for generating such densities is presented: it includes: (i) a time-adaptive quantile regression model for the 5%–95% quantiles; and (ii) a description of the distribution tails with exponential distributions. The forecasting skill of the proposed model...
Full Text Available Environmental factors are among the key determinants of real estate prices. They include landscape attractiveness, land relief, exposure to sunlight and proximity to natural features. In large urban centers, traffic noise emissions significantly affect decision-making on the real estate market. Weakly developed road networks and the absence of ring roads that shift road traffic outside residential districts are a widespread problem in the cities of Central-Eastern Europe. The prevention of traffic noise pollution, one of the key environmental problems in Europe, is an important goal of European Union policy. This paper analyzes the correlations between apartment prices and traffic noise levels in Olsztyn, the capital city of the Warminsko-Mazurskie Voivodeship (province in north-eastern Poland. A linear correlation analysis was performed, and the distribution of unit prices of apartments was mapped by ordinary kriging.
The article investigates gas pricing in the European procurement market and the wholesale markets of the most important EU consumer markets. It demonstrates that value-oriented pricing principles override cost-oriented pricing principles. For one thing, and independently of pricing principles, two- or three-part demand price systems or basic price systems are common. For another, the frequently encountered opportunities for the differentiation of prices show that as long as there is merely substitution competition instead of direct competition, gas suppliers have a certain degree of freedom in fixing their prices. By contrast, the introduction of direct competition in Great Britain has reduced suppliers' individual price fixing margins, because short-term supply and demand variations in the now created spot market are decisive for gas pricing. (orig.) [de
Park, Chang Won; Lee, Young Koo [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)
The object of this study is to suggest some improvements on current price formulas on oil and gas which have been pivotal roles in the process of Korean economic growth. This study first examines basic frames and transition of oil and gas pricing in Korea and then finds some suggestions on them by scrutinizing their theoretical backgrounds. This study finds several problems on oil and gas pricing formulas. (a) In a model that is now studied to evaluate the current domestic oil price, the costs associated with oil security such as oil stockpile are fully penetrated into oil price without their fair evaluations. There is no evaluation principle on the costs occurred in oil supply security. (b) The Rate Of Equity(ROE), a crucial factor in town-gas pricing which is strictly controlled, is directly connected to the average interest rate on saving accounts of domestic commercial banks. Some arguments may have rise about inclusion a risk factor on ROE in order to compensate the uncertainty of town-gas business. (c) New demand for natural gas which is generated by new technologies or machinery and tools can help reduce the costs occurred from seasonal imbalance between power sector and gas sector. So it is also important to decide how to include the beneficiary of cost reduction in town-gas pricing. In order to evaluate the proper price levels, this study tests energy supply security by adopting methodologies such as Herfindahl Index and Portfolio Variance Risk. They can help develop the method to effectively improve the energy security and include the proper energy security costs into energy prices. This study also provides some suggestions for betterment of current ROE decision rule in town-gas business and for improvement of current town-gas policy that government subsidizes newly developed demand for strengthening price competitiveness in the early stage. (author). 145 refs., 16 figs., 49 tabs.
Mazidi, Mohammadreza; Monsef, Hassan; Siano, Pierluigi
Highlights: • Proposing a model for incorporating price-responsive customers in day-ahead scheduling of smart distribution networks; this model provides a win–win situation. • Introducing a risk management model based on a bi-level information-gap decision theory and recasting it into its equivalent single-level robust optimization problem using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions. • Utilizing mixed-integer linear programing formulation that is efficiently solved by commercial optimization software. - Abstract: Demand response and real-time pricing of electricity are key factors in a smart grid as they can increase economic efficiency and technical performances of power grids. This paper focuses on incorporating price-responsive customers in day-ahead scheduling of smart distribution networks under a dynamic pricing environment. A novel method is proposed and formulated as a tractable mixed integer linear programming optimization problem whose objective is to find hourly sale prices offered to customers, transactions (purchase/sale) with the wholesale market, commitment of distribution generation units, dispatch of battery energy storage systems and planning of interruptible loads in a way that the profit of the distribution network operator is maximized while customers’ benefit is guaranteed. To hedge distribution network operator against financial risk arising from uncertainty of wholesale market prices, a risk management model based on a bi-level information-gap decision theory is proposed. The proposed bi-level problem is solved by recasting it into its equivalent single-level robust optimization problem using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions. Performance of the proposed model is verified by applying it to a modified version of the IEEE 33-bus distribution test network. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.
Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Samahita, Margaret
this threshold, however, PWYW can lead to a lower utility. This may result in a lower purchase rate and higher average price, in line with previously unexplained evidence from field experiments. Moreover, an increase in the threshold value decreases the buyer's utility and may further lower the purchase rate......Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) pricing schemes are becoming increasingly popular in a wide range of industries. We develop a model incorporating self-image into the buyer's utility function and introduce heterogeneity in consumption utility and image-sensitivity, which generates different purchase...... decisions and optimal prices across individuals. When a good is sold at a fixed price higher than a threshold value, a price that the individual thinks is fair, the adoption of PWYW increases his utility and hence results in a weakly higher purchase rate. When a good is sold at a fixed price lower than...
Rossing, Christian Plesner; Cools, Martine; Rohde, Carsten
Current curricula in management accounting stress the role of transfer pricing as a tool for measuring the performance of responsibility centers and their managers. Recently, however, multinational enterprises (MNEs) have felt increasing pressure to comply with transfer pricing tax regulation...... of responsibility accounting. Specifically, the case study is a fictional MNE, allowing you to apply the OECD Guidelines in practice to cross-border transfers within an MNE, and to discuss the implications of tax-based transfer pricing for responsibility accounting. As a basis for working on the case study....... As a result, tax risk management considerations play a key role in the transfer pricing decisions of MNEs today. This case seeks to provide you with examples of the core principles of international transfer pricing, as well as to allow you to discuss international transfer pricing in the context...
Willan, Andrew R; Eckermann, Simon
Previous application of value-of-information methods to optimal clinical trial design have predominantly taken a societal decision-making perspective, implicitly assuming that healthcare costs are covered through public expenditure and trial research is funded by government or donation-based philanthropic agencies. In this paper, we consider the interaction between interrelated perspectives of a societal decision maker (e.g. the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence [NICE] in the UK) charged with the responsibility for approving new health interventions for reimbursement and the company that holds the patent for a new intervention. We establish optimal decision making from societal and company perspectives, allowing for trade-offs between the value and cost of research and the price of the new intervention. Given the current level of evidence, there exists a maximum (threshold) price acceptable to the decision maker. Submission for approval with prices above this threshold will be refused. Given the current level of evidence and the decision maker's threshold price, there exists a minimum (threshold) price acceptable to the company. If the decision maker's threshold price exceeds the company's, then current evidence is sufficient since any price between the thresholds is acceptable to both. On the other hand, if the decision maker's threshold price is lower than the company's, then no price is acceptable to both and the company's optimal strategy is to commission additional research. The methods are illustrated using a recent example from the literature.
Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde
Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...
Cyrus C.Y. Chu; Hung-Ken Chien
We study the pricing problem of a durable-goods monopolist. With network effects, consumption externalities among heterogeneous groups of consumers generate a discontinuous demand function. Consequently, the lessor has to offer a low price in order to reach the mass market, whereas the seller has the option to build a customer base by setting a lower initial price and raise the price later in the mass market, which explains the practice of introductory pricing. Contrary to the existing litera...
Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina
Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...
Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro
Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more “rational.” We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual...
The purpose of this study was to explore issues related to the development of pricing strategies. Important questions addressed included the importance of this topic and a description of how prices are set or why prices are set. Also, the concern of whether these issues are general across major types of pricing decisions, or specific to certain pricing decisions was investigated. Particularly, this study reviewed the descriptive survey research or case studies that have been do...
Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Schneider, Raphael; Davidsen, Claus
Wellfield management is a multiobjective optimization problem. One important objective has been energy efficiency in terms of minimizing the energy footprint (EFP) of delivered water (MWh/m3). However, power systems in most countries are moving in the direction of deregulated markets and price...... itself. We estimated EFP of pumped water as a function of wellfield pumping rate (EFP-Q relationship) for a wellfield in Denmark using a coupled well and pipe network model. This EFP-Q relationship was subsequently used in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework to minimize total cost...... of operating the combined wellfield-storage-demand system over the course of a 2-year planning period based on a time series of observed price on the Danish power market and a deterministic, time-varying hourly water demand. In the SDP setup, hourly pumping rates are the decision variables. Constraints include...
Seyed Reza Moosavi Tabatabaei
Full Text Available Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue.
Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad
Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue. PMID:28306750
Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad
Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue.