WorldWideScience

Sample records for previously validated model

  1. Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. PMID:26590280

  2. Validation of SWAT+ at field level and comparison with previous SWAT models in simulating hydrologic quantity

    Science.gov (United States)

    GAO, J.; White, M. J.; Bieger, K.; Yen, H.; Arnold, J. G.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past 20 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been adopted by many researches to assess water quantity and quality in watersheds around the world. As the demand increases in facilitating model support, maintenance, and future development, the SWAT source code and data have undergone major modifications over the past few years. To make the model more flexible in terms of interactions of spatial units and processes occurring in watersheds, a completely revised version of SWAT (SWAT+) was developed to improve SWAT's ability in water resource modelling and management. There are only several applications of SWAT+ in large watersheds, however, no study pays attention to validate the new model at field level and assess its performance. To test the basic hydrologic function of SWAT+, it was implemented in five field cases across five states in the U.S. and compared the SWAT+ created results with that from the previous models at the same fields. Additionally, an automatic calibration tool was used to test which model is easier to be calibrated well in a limited number of parameter adjustments. The goal of the study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT+ in simulating stream flow on field level at different geographical locations. The results demonstrate that SWAT+ demonstrated similar performance with previous SWAT model, but the flexibility offered by SWAT+ via the connection of different spatial objects can result in a more accurate simulation of hydrological processes in spatial, especially for watershed with artificial facilities. Autocalibration shows that SWAT+ is much easier to obtain a satisfied result compared with the previous SWAT. Although many capabilities have already been enhanced in SWAT+, there exist inaccuracies in simulation. This insufficiency will be improved with advancements in scientific knowledge on hydrologic process in specific watersheds. Currently, SWAT+ is prerelease, and any errors are being addressed.

  3. Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin; Strawn, Laura K

    2016-02-01

    Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  4. MCNP HPGe detector benchmark with previously validated Cyltran model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hau, I D; Russ, W R; Bronson, F

    2009-05-01

    An exact copy of the detector model generated for Cyltran was reproduced as an MCNP input file and the detection efficiency was calculated similarly with the methodology used in previous experimental measurements and simulation of a 280 cm(3) HPGe detector. Below 1000 keV the MCNP data correlated to the Cyltran results within 0.5% while above this energy the difference between MCNP and Cyltran increased to about 6% at 4800 keV, depending on the electron cut-off energy.

  5. 40 CFR 152.93 - Citation of a previously submitted valid study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Data Submitters' Rights § 152.93 Citation of a previously submitted valid study. An applicant may demonstrate compliance for a data requirement by citing a valid study previously submitted to the Agency. The... the original data submitter, the applicant may cite the study only in accordance with paragraphs (b...

  6. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  7. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  8. Validation of the Online version of the Previous Day Food Questionnaire for schoolchildren

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel ENGEL

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate the validity of the web-based version of the Previous Day Food Questionnaire Online for schoolchildren from the 2nd to 5th grades of elementary school. Methods Participants were 312 schoolchildren aged 7 to 12 years of a public school from the city of Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. Validity was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, as well as by agreement rates (match, omission, and intrusion rates of food items reported by children on the Previous Day Food Questionnaire Online, using direct observation of foods/beverages eaten during school meals (mid-morning snack or afternoon snack on the previous day as the reference. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of participants’ characteristics on omission and intrusion rates. Results The results showed adequate sensitivity (67.7% and specificity (95.2%. There were low omission and intrusion rates of 22.8% and 29.5%, respectively when all food items were analyzed. Pizza/hamburger showed the highest omission rate, whereas milk and milk products showed the highest intrusion rate. The participants who attended school in the afternoon shift presented a higher probability of intrusion compared to their peers who attended school in the morning. Conclusion The Previous Day Food Questionnaire Online possessed satisfactory validity for the assessment of food intake at the group level in schoolchildren from the 2nd to 5th grades of public school.

  9. An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.

    1994-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.

  10. Validating a Technology Enhanced Student-Centered Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Myunghee; Hahn, Jungsun; Chung, Warren

    2015-01-01

    The Technology Enhanced Student Centered Learning (TESCL) Model in this study presents the core factors that ensure the quality of learning in a technology-supported environment. Although the model was conceptually constructed using a student-centered learning framework and drawing upon previous studies, it should be validated through real-world…

  11. Refinement, Validation and Benchmarking of a Model for E-Government Service Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magoutas, Babis; Mentzas, Gregoris

    This paper presents the refinement and validation of a model for Quality of e-Government Services (QeGS). We built upon our previous work where a conceptualized model was identified and put focus on the confirmatory phase of the model development process, in order to come up with a valid and reliable QeGS model. The validated model, which was benchmarked with very positive results with similar models found in the literature, can be used for measuring the QeGS in a reliable and valid manner. This will form the basis for a continuous quality improvement process, unleashing the full potential of e-government services for both citizens and public administrations.

  12. Groundwater Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed E. Hassan

    2006-01-24

    Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process of stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation

  13. Cross-validation of an employee safety climate model in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahari, Siti Fatimah; Clarke, Sharon

    2013-06-01

    Whilst substantial research has investigated the nature of safety climate, and its importance as a leading indicator of organisational safety, much of this research has been conducted with Western industrial samples. The current study focuses on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Malaysian manufacturing. The first-order factorial validity of Cheyne et al.'s (1998) [Cheyne, A., Cox, S., Oliver, A., Tomas, J.M., 1998. Modelling safety climate in the prediction of levels of safety activity. Work and Stress, 12(3), 255-271] model was tested, using confirmatory factor analysis, in a Malaysian sample. Results showed that the model fit indices were below accepted levels, indicating that the original Cheyne et al. (1998) safety climate model was not supported. An alternative three-factor model was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Although these findings are not consistent with previously reported cross-validation studies, we argue that previous studies have focused on validation across Western samples, and that the current study demonstrates the need to take account of cultural factors in the development of safety climate models intended for use in non-Western contexts. The results have important implications for the transferability of existing safety climate models across cultures (for example, in global organisations) and highlight the need for future research to examine cross-cultural issues in relation to safety climate. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  15. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  16. Contact Modelling in Resistance Welding, Part II: Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Quanfeng; Zhang, Wenqi; Bay, Niels

    2006-01-01

    Contact algorithms in resistance welding presented in the previous paper are experimentally validated in the present paper. In order to verify the mechanical contact algorithm, two types of experiments, i.e. sandwich upsetting of circular, cylindrical specimens and compression tests of discs...... with a solid ring projection towards a flat ring, are carried out at room temperature. The complete algorithm, involving not only the mechanical model but also the thermal and electrical models, is validated by projection welding experiments. The experimental results are in satisfactory agreement...

  17. Construct validity of the ovine model in endoscopic sinus surgery training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Zaid; Taghi, Ali; Sethukumar, Priya; Tolley, Neil S

    2015-03-01

    To demonstrate construct validity of the ovine model as a tool for training in endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Prospective, cross-sectional evaluation study. Over 18 consecutive months, trainees and experts were evaluated in their ability to perform a range of tasks (based on previous face validation and descriptive studies conducted by the same group) relating to ESS on the sheep-head model. Anonymized randomized video recordings of the above were assessed by two independent and blinded assessors. A validated assessment tool utilizing a five-point Likert scale was employed. Construct validity was calculated by comparing scores across training levels and experts using mean and interquartile range of global and task-specific scores. Subgroup analysis of the intermediate group ascertained previous experience. Nonparametric descriptive statistics were used, and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 21 (IBM, Armonk, NY). Reliability of the assessment tool was confirmed. The model discriminated well between different levels of expertise in global and task-specific scores. A positive correlation was noted between year in training and both global and task-specific scores (P variable, and the number of ESS procedures performed under supervision had the highest impact on performance. This study describes an alternative model for ESS training and assessment. It is also the first to demonstrate construct validity of the sheep-head model for ESS training. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  18. Validation of HEDR models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid

  19. Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

    2014-03-29

    We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

  20. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, J; Burkhardt, H; Ivanchenko, V N; Asai, M; Bagulya, A; Grichine, V; Brown, J M C; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Jacquemier, J; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Urban, L; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed. (paper)

  1. PEMFC modeling and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)

  2. Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli, and comparable to the previous validation round (RMSE approximately 10%). The results further confirm that the distraction model can be used as a valuable tool in evaluating and optimizing...

  3. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  4. Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Colin J; Gordon, Andrea L; Thompson, Sarah K; Watson, David I; Whiteman, David C; Reed, Richard L; Esterman, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p =0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.

  5. Validation of the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCourt, Emily A; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Lynch, Anne M; Palestine, Alan G; Wagner, Brandie D; Wymore, Erica; Tomlinson, Lauren A; Binenbaum, Gil

    2018-04-01

    The Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) model uses birth weight, gestational age, and weight gain at the first month of life (WG-28) to predict risk of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). In previous validation studies, the model performed very well, predicting virtually all cases of severe ROP and potentially reducing the number of infants who need ROP examinations, warranting validation in a larger, more diverse population. To validate the performance of the CO-ROP model in a large multicenter cohort. This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study, a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in 29 hospitals in the United States and Canada between January 2006 and June 2012 of 6351 premature infants who received ROP examinations. Sensitivity and specificity for severe (early treatment of ROP [ETROP] type 1 or 2) ROP, and reduction in infants receiving examinations. The CO-ROP model was applied to the infants in the G-ROP data set with all 3 data points (infants would have received examinations if they met all 3 criteria: birth weight, large validation cohort. The model requires all 3 criteria to be met to signal a need for examinations, but some infants with a birth weight or gestational age above the thresholds developed severe ROP. Most of these infants who were not detected by the CO-ROP model had obvious deviation in expected weight trajectories or nonphysiologic weight gain. These findings suggest that the CO-ROP model needs to be revised before considering implementation into clinical practice.

  6. Stochastic modeling of oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture: model validation with time-lapse data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noble Mark

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first objective is to validate the assumptions behind a stochastic model developed earlier by these authors to describe oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture. The second is to generate time-lapse data that may help biomathematicians to build stochastic models of cell proliferation and differentiation under other experimental scenarios. Results Using time-lapse video recording it is possible to follow the individual evolutions of different cells within each clone. This experimental technique is very laborious and cannot replace model-based quantitative inference from clonal data. However, it is unrivalled in validating the structure of a stochastic model intended to describe cell proliferation and differentiation at the clonal level. In this paper, such data are reported and analyzed for oligodendrocyte precursor cells cultured in vitro. Conclusion The results strongly support the validity of the most basic assumptions underpinning the previously proposed model of oligodendrocyte development in cell culture. However, there are some discrepancies; the most important is that the contribution of progenitor cell death to cell kinetics in this experimental system has been underestimated.

  7. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  8. Test-driven verification/validation of model transformations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    László LENGYEL; Hassan CHARAF

    2015-01-01

    Why is it important to verify/validate model transformations? The motivation is to improve the quality of the trans-formations, and therefore the quality of the generated software artifacts. Verified/validated model transformations make it possible to ensure certain properties of the generated software artifacts. In this way, verification/validation methods can guarantee different requirements stated by the actual domain against the generated/modified/optimized software products. For example, a verified/ validated model transformation can ensure the preservation of certain properties during the model-to-model transformation. This paper emphasizes the necessity of methods that make model transformation verified/validated, discusses the different scenarios of model transformation verification and validation, and introduces the principles of a novel test-driven method for verifying/ validating model transformations. We provide a solution that makes it possible to automatically generate test input models for model transformations. Furthermore, we collect and discuss the actual open issues in the field of verification/validation of model transformations.

  9. Recent Progress Validating the HADES Model of LLNL's HEAF MicroCT Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, W. T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bond, K. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lennox, K. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aufderheide, M. B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Seetho, I. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Roberson, G. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-07-17

    This report compares recent HADES calculations of x-ray linear attenuation coefficients to previous MicroCT measurements made at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s High Energy Applications Facility (HEAF). The chief objective is to investigate what impact recent changes in HADES modeling have on validation results. We find that these changes have no obvious effect on the overall accuracy of the model. Detailed comparisons between recent and previous results are presented.

  10. Heat Transfer Modeling and Validation for Optically Thick Alumina Fibrous Insulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daryabeigi, Kamran

    2009-01-01

    Combined radiation/conduction heat transfer through unbonded alumina fibrous insulation was modeled using the diffusion approximation for modeling the radiation component of heat transfer in the optically thick insulation. The validity of the heat transfer model was investigated by comparison to previously reported experimental effective thermal conductivity data over the insulation density range of 24 to 96 kg/cu m, with a pressure range of 0.001 to 750 torr (0.1 to 101.3 x 10(exp 3) Pa), and test sample hot side temperature range of 530 to 1360 K. The model was further validated by comparison to thermal conductivity measurements using the transient step heating technique on an insulation sample at a density of 144 kg/cu m over a pressure range of 0.001 to 760 torr, and temperature range of 290 to 1090 K.

  11. Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

  12. HEDR model validation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1993-06-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computational ''tools'' for estimating the possible radiation dose that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the planned activities to ''validate'' these tools. In the sense of the HEDR Project, ''validation'' is a process carried out by comparing computational model predictions with field observations and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the model

  13. Validation of models with multivariate output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebba, Ramesh; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops metrics for validating computational models with experimental data, considering uncertainties in both. A computational model may generate multiple response quantities and the validation experiment might yield corresponding measured values. Alternatively, a single response quantity may be predicted and observed at different spatial and temporal points. Model validation in such cases involves comparison of multiple correlated quantities. Multiple univariate comparisons may give conflicting inferences. Therefore, aggregate validation metrics are developed in this paper. Both classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing are investigated for this purpose, using multivariate analysis. Since, commonly used statistical significance tests are based on normality assumptions, appropriate transformations are investigated in the case of non-normal data. The methodology is implemented to validate an empirical model for energy dissipation in lap joints under dynamic loading

  14. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  15. Repeated holdout Cross-Validation of Model to Estimate Risk of Lyme Disease by Landscape Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We previously modeled Lyme disease (LD) risk at the landscape scale; here we evaluate the model's overall goodness-of-fit using holdout validation. Landscapes were characterized within road-bounded analysis units (AU). Observed LD cases (obsLD) were ascertained per AU. Data were ...

  16. High Turbidity Solis Clear Sky Model: Development and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Ineichen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Solis clear sky model is a spectral scheme based on radiative transfer calculations and the Lambert–Beer relation. Its broadband version is a simplified fast analytical version; it is limited to broadband aerosol optical depths lower than 0.45, which is a weakness when applied in countries with very high turbidity such as China or India. In order to extend the use of the original simplified version of the model for high turbidity values, we developed a new version of the broadband Solis model based on radiative transfer calculations, valid for turbidity values up to 7, for the three components, global, beam, and diffuse, and for the four aerosol types defined by Shettle and Fenn. A validation of low turbidity data acquired in Geneva shows slightly better results than the previous version. On data acquired at sites presenting higher turbidity data, the bias stays within ±4% for the beam and the global irradiances, and the standard deviation around 5% for clean and stable condition data and around 12% for questionable data and variable sky conditions.

  17. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens; Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K.

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  18. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens (Inspecta Technology AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K. (Center for Welded Structures Research, Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States))

    2009-06-15

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  19. Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredehoeft, J.D.; Konikow, Leonard F.

    1993-01-01

    The word validation has a clear meaning to both the scientific community and the general public. Within the scientific community the validation of scientific theory has been the subject of philosophical debate. The philosopher of science, Karl Popper, argued that scientific theory cannot be validated, only invalidated. Popper’s view is not the only opinion in this debate; however, many scientists today agree with Popper (including the authors). To the general public, proclaiming that a ground-water model is validated carries with it an aura of correctness that we do not believe many of us who model would claim. We can place all the caveats we wish, but the public has its own understanding of what the word implies. Using the word valid with respect to models misleads the public; verification carries with it similar connotations as far as the public is concerned. Our point is this: using the terms validation and verification are misleading, at best. These terms should be abandoned by the ground-water community.

  20. A broad view of model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, C.F.

    1989-10-01

    The safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository requires the use of models. Such models need to be validated to ensure, as much as possible, that they are a good representation of the actual processes occurring in the real system. In this paper we attempt to take a broad view by reviewing step by step the modeling process and bringing out the need to validating every step of this process. This model validation includes not only comparison of modeling results with data from selected experiments, but also evaluation of procedures for the construction of conceptual models and calculational models as well as methodologies for studying data and parameter correlation. The need for advancing basic scientific knowledge in related fields, for multiple assessment groups, and for presenting our modeling efforts in open literature to public scrutiny is also emphasized. 16 refs

  1. Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuiver, Martijn M.; Kampshoff, Caroline S.; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J. M.; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2(peak)) and peak power output (W-peak).&

  2. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  3. Analytical thermal model validation for Cassini radioisotope thermoelectric generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, E.I.

    1997-01-01

    The Saturn-bound Cassini spacecraft is designed to rely, without precedent, on the waste heat from its three radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) to warm the propulsion module subsystem, and the RTG end dome temperature is a key determining factor of the amount of waste heat delivered. A previously validated SINDA thermal model of the RTG was the sole guide to understanding its complex thermal behavior, but displayed large discrepancies against some initial thermal development test data. A careful revalidation effort led to significant modifications and adjustments of the model, which result in a doubling of the radiative heat transfer from the heat source support assemblies to the end domes and bring up the end dome and flange temperature predictions to within 2 C of the pertinent test data. The increased inboard end dome temperature has a considerable impact on thermal control of the spacecraft central body. The validation process offers an example of physically-driven analytical model calibration with test data from not only an electrical simulator but also a nuclear-fueled flight unit, and has established the end dome temperatures of a flight RTG where no in-flight or ground-test data existed before

  4. Establishing model credibility involves more than validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, T.

    1991-01-01

    One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)

  5. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  6. Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colson, Abigail R.; Cooke, Roger M.

    2017-01-01

    We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before focusing on linear pooling of expert judgments with equal weights and performance-based weights. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting in all but 1 of the 33 studies in-sample. True out-of-sample validation is rarely possible for Classical Model studies, and cross validation techniques that split calibration questions into a training and test set are used instead. Performance weighting incurs an “out-of-sample penalty” and its statistical accuracy out-of-sample is lower than that of equal weighting. However, as a function of training set size, the statistical accuracy of performance-based combinations reaches 75% of the equal weight value when the training set includes 80% of calibration variables. At this point the training set is sufficiently powerful to resolve differences in individual expert performance. The information of performance-based combinations is double that of equal weighting when the training set is at least 50% of the set of calibration variables. Previous out-of-sample validation work used a Total Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on all splits of the calibration questions into training and test subsets, which is expensive to compute and includes small training sets of dubious value. As an alternative, we propose an Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on averaging the product of statistical accuracy and information over all training sets sized at 80% of the calibration set. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting on this Out-of-Sample Validity Index in 26 of the 33 post-2006 studies; the probability of 26 or more successes on 33 trials if there were no difference between performance

  7. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  9. Use of Maple Seeding Canopy Reflectance Dataset for Validation of SART/LEAFMOD Radiative Transfer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Barbara J.; Peterson, David L.

    1999-01-01

    This project was a collaborative effort by researchers at ARC, OSU and the University of Arizona. The goal was to use a dataset obtained from a previous study to "empirically validate a new canopy radiative-transfer model (SART) which incorporates a recently-developed leaf-level model (LEAFMOD)". The document includes a short research summary.

  10. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  11. A proposed best practice model validation framework for banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter J. (Riaan de Jongh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. The credit crisis of 2008–2009 provoked added concern about the use of models in finance. Measuring and managing model risk has subsequently come under scrutiny from regulators, supervisors, banks and other financial institutions. Regulatory guidance indicates that meticulous monitoring of all phases of model development and implementation is required to mitigate this risk. Considerable resources must be mobilised for this purpose. The exercise must embrace model development, assembly, implementation, validation and effective governance. Setting: Model validation practices are generally patchy, disparate and sometimes contradictory, and although the Basel Accord and some regulatory authorities have attempted to establish guiding principles, no definite set of global standards exists. Aim: Assessing the available literature for the best validation practices. Methods: This comprehensive literature study provided a background to the complexities of effective model management and focussed on model validation as a component of model risk management. Results: We propose a coherent ‘best practice’ framework for model validation. Scorecard tools are also presented to evaluate if the proposed best practice model validation framework has been adequately assembled and implemented. Conclusion: The proposed best practice model validation framework is designed to assist firms in the construction of an effective, robust and fully compliant model validation programme and comprises three principal elements: model validation governance, policy and process.

  12. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  13. Model Validation Using Coordinate Distance with Performance Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiann-Shiun Lew

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an innovative approach to model validation for a structure with significant parameter variations. Model uncertainty of the structural dynamics is quantified with the use of a singular value decomposition technique to extract the principal components of parameter change, and an interval model is generated to represent the system with parameter uncertainty. The coordinate vector, corresponding to the identified principal directions, of the validation system is computed. The coordinate distance between the validation system and the identified interval model is used as a metric for model validation. A beam structure with an attached subsystem, which has significant parameter uncertainty, is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  14. Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, N.

    1991-01-01

    Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs

  15. Empirical Validation of a Thermal Model of a Complex Roof Including Phase Change Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Guichard

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the empirical validation of a building thermal model of a complex roof including a phase change material (PCM. A mathematical model dedicated to PCMs based on the heat apparent capacity method was implemented in a multi-zone building simulation code, the aim being to increase the understanding of the thermal behavior of the whole building with PCM technologies. In order to empirically validate the model, the methodology is based both on numerical and experimental studies. A parametric sensitivity analysis was performed and a set of parameters of the thermal model has been identified for optimization. The use of the generic optimization program called GenOpt® coupled to the building simulation code enabled to determine the set of adequate parameters. We first present the empirical validation methodology and main results of previous work. We then give an overview of GenOpt® and its coupling with the building simulation code. Finally, once the optimization results are obtained, comparisons of the thermal predictions with measurements are found to be acceptable and are presented.

  16. Content Validity of Temporal Bone Models Printed Via Inexpensive Methods and Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bone, T Michael; Mowry, Sarah E

    2016-09-01

    Computed tomographic (CT) scans of the 3-D printed temporal bone models will be within 15% accuracy of the CT scans of the cadaveric temporal bones. Previous studies have evaluated the face validity of 3-D-printed temporal bone models designed to train otolaryngology residents. The purpose of the study was to determine the content validity of temporal bone models printed using inexpensive printers and materials. Four cadaveric temporal bones were randomly selected and clinical temporal bone CT scans were obtained. Models were generated using previously described methods in acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic using the Makerbot Replicator 2× and Hyrel printers. Models were radiographically scanned using the same protocol as the cadaveric bones. Four images from each cadaveric CT series and four corresponding images from the model CT series were selected, and voxel values were normalized to black or white. Scan slices were compared using PixelDiff software. Gross anatomic structures were evaluated in the model scans by four board certified otolaryngologists on a 4-point scale. Mean pixel difference between the cadaver and model scans was 14.25 ± 2.30% at the four selected CT slices. Mean cortical bone width difference and mean external auditory canal width difference were 0.58 ± 0.66 mm and 0.55 ± 0.46 mm, respectively. Expert raters felt the mastoid air cells were well represented (2.5 ± 0.5), while middle ear and otic capsule structures were not accurately rendered (all averaged bones for training residents in cortical mastoidectomies, but less effective for middle ear procedures.

  17. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  18. Validity of observer ratings of the five-factor model of personality traits: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, In-Sue; Wang, Gang; Mount, Michael K

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions reached in previous research about the magnitude and nature of personality-performance linkages have been based almost exclusively on self-report measures of personality. The purpose of this study is to address this void in the literature by conducting a meta-analysis of the relationship between observer ratings of the five-factor model (FFM) personality traits and overall job performance. Our results show that the operational validities of FFM traits based on observer ratings are higher than those based on self-report ratings. In addition, the results show that when based on observer ratings, all FFM traits are significant predictors of overall performance. Further, observer ratings of FFM traits show meaningful incremental validity over self-reports of corresponding FFM traits in predicting overall performance, but the reverse is not true. We conclude that the validity of FFM traits in predicting overall performance is higher than previously believed, and our results underscore the importance of disentangling the validity of personality traits from the method of measurement of the traits.

  19. Validating EHR clinical models using ontology patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-12-01

    Clinical models are artefacts that specify how information is structured in electronic health records (EHRs). However, the makeup of clinical models is not guided by any formal constraint beyond a semantically vague information model. We address this gap by advocating ontology design patterns as a mechanism that makes the semantics of clinical models explicit. This paper demonstrates how ontology design patterns can validate existing clinical models using SHACL. Based on the Clinical Information Modelling Initiative (CIMI), we show how ontology patterns detect both modeling and terminology binding errors in CIMI models. SHACL, a W3C constraint language for the validation of RDF graphs, builds on the concept of "Shape", a description of data in terms of expected cardinalities, datatypes and other restrictions. SHACL, as opposed to OWL, subscribes to the Closed World Assumption (CWA) and is therefore more suitable for the validation of clinical models. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by manually describing the correspondences between six CIMI clinical models represented in RDF and two SHACL ontology design patterns. Using a Java-based SHACL implementation, we found at least eleven modeling and binding errors within these CIMI models. This demonstrates the usefulness of ontology design patterns not only as a modeling tool but also as a tool for validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. External validation of the Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) to predict conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Alan Shiun Yew; Donohue, Peter O'; Gunnarsson, Ronny K; de Costa, Alan

    2018-03-14

    Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10 -14 ). In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Tracer travel time and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, Chin-Fu.

    1988-01-01

    The performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository demands much more in comparison to the safety evaluation of any civil constructions such as dams, or the resource evaluation of a petroleum or geothermal reservoir. It involves the estimation of low probability (low concentration) of radionuclide transport extrapolated 1000's of years into the future. Thus models used to make these estimates need to be carefully validated. A number of recent efforts have been devoted to the study of this problem. Some general comments on model validation were given by Tsang. The present paper discusses some issues of validation in regards to radionuclide transport. 5 refs

  2. Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot's model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarais, Veronica; Reschini, Marco; Busnelli, Andrea; Biancardi, Rossella; Paffoni, Alessio; Somigliana, Edgardo

    2016-06-01

    Is the predictive model for IVF success proposed by van Loendersloot et al. valid in a different geographical and cultural context? The model discriminates well but was less accurate than in the original context where it was developed. Several independent groups have developed models that combine different variables with the aim of estimating the chance of pregnancy with IVF but only four of them have been externally validated. One of these four, the van Loendersloot's model, deserves particular attention and further investigation for at least three reasons; (i) the reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-statistics) in the temporal validation setting was the highest reported to date (0.68), (ii) the perspective of the model is clinically wise since it includes variables obtained from previous failed cycles, if any, so it can be applied to any women entering an IVF cycle, (iii) the model lacks external validation in a geographically different center. Retrospective cohort study of women undergoing oocyte retrieval for IVF between January 2013 and December 2013 at the infertility unit of the Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, Italy. Only the first oocyte retrieval cycle performed during the study period was included in the study. Women with previous IVF cycles were excluded if the last one before the study cycle was in another center. The main outcome was the cumulative live birth rate per oocytes retrieval. Seven hundred seventy-two women were selected. Variables included in the van Loendersloot's model and the relative weights (beta) were used. The variable resulting from this combination (Y) was transformed into a probability. The discriminatory capacity was assessed using the c-statistics. Calibration was made using a logistic regression that included Y as the unique variable and live birth as the outcome. Data are presented using both the original and the calibrated models. Performance was evaluated

  3. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  4. Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ireland CJ

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0

  5. Validation, Proof-of-Concept, and Postaudit of the Groundwater Flow and Transport Model of the Project Shoal Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed Hassan

    2004-01-01

    The groundwater flow and radionuclide transport model characterizing the Shoal underground nuclear test has been accepted by the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection. According to the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) between DOE and the State of Nevada, the next steps in the closure process for the site are then model validation (or postaudit), the proof-of-concept, and the long-term monitoring stage. This report addresses the development of the validation strategy for the Shoal model, needed for preparing the subsurface Corrective Action Decision Document-Corrective Action Plan and the development of the proof-of-concept tools needed during the five-year monitoring/validation period. The approach builds on a previous model, but is adapted and modified to the site-specific conditions and challenges of the Shoal site

  6. Validation, Proof-of-Concept, and Postaudit of the Groundwater Flow and Transport Model of the Project Shoal Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed Hassan

    2004-09-01

    The groundwater flow and radionuclide transport model characterizing the Shoal underground nuclear test has been accepted by the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection. According to the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) between DOE and the State of Nevada, the next steps in the closure process for the site are then model validation (or postaudit), the proof-of-concept, and the long-term monitoring stage. This report addresses the development of the validation strategy for the Shoal model, needed for preparing the subsurface Corrective Action Decision Document-Corrective Action Plan and the development of the proof-of-concept tools needed during the five-year monitoring/validation period. The approach builds on a previous model, but is adapted and modified to the site-specific conditions and challenges of the Shoal site.

  7. Validation of models in an imaging infrared simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Willers, C

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available threeprocessesfortransformingtheinformationbetweentheentities. Reality/ Problem Entity Conceptual Model Computerized Model Model Validation ModelVerification Model Qualification Computer Implementation Analysisand Modelling Simulationand Experimentation “Substantiationthata....C.Refsgaard ,ModellingGuidelines-terminology andguidingprinciples, AdvancesinWaterResources, Vol27,No1,January2004,?pp.71-82(12),Elsevier. et.al. [5]N.Oreskes,et.al.,Verification,Validation,andConfirmationof NumericalModelsintheEarthSciences,Science,Vol263, Number...

  8. Parametric model of servo-hydraulic actuator coupled with a nonlinear system: Experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghareh, Amin; Silva, Christian E.; Dyke, Shirley J.

    2018-05-01

    Hydraulic actuators play a key role in experimental structural dynamics. In a previous study, a physics-based model for a servo-hydraulic actuator coupled with a nonlinear physical system was developed. Later, this dynamical model was transformed into controllable canonical form for position tracking control purposes. For this study, a nonlinear device is designed and fabricated to exhibit various nonlinear force-displacement profiles depending on the initial condition and the type of materials used as replaceable coupons. Using this nonlinear system, the controllable canonical dynamical model is experimentally validated for a servo-hydraulic actuator coupled with a nonlinear physical system.

  9. An internally validated prognostic model for success in revision stapes surgery for otosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegner, Inge; Vincent, Robert; Derks, Laura S M; Rauh, Simone P; Heymans, Martijn W; Stegeman, Inge; Grolman, Wilko

    2018-03-09

    To develop a prediction model that can accurately predict the chance of success following revision stapes surgery in patients with recurrent or persistent otosclerosis at 2- to 6-months follow-up and to validate this model internally. A retrospective cohort study of prospectively gathered data in a tertiary referral center. The associations of 11 prognostic factors with treatment success were tested in 705 cases using multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward selection. Success was defined as a mean air-bone gap closure to 10 dB or less. The most relevant predictors were used to derive a clinical prediction rule to determine the probability of success. Internal validation by means of bootstrapping was performed. Model performance indices, including the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and the explained variance were calculated. Success was achieved in 57.7% of cases at 2- to 6-months follow-up. Certain previous surgical techniques, primary causes of failure leading up to revision stapes surgery, and positions of the prosthesis placed during revision surgery were associated with higher success percentages. The clinical prediction rule performed moderately well in the original dataset (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .78; AUC = 0.73; explained variance = 22%), which slightly decreased following internal validation by means of bootstrapping (AUC = 0.69; explained variance = 13%). Our study established the importance of previous surgical technique, primary cause of failure, and type of the prosthesis placed during the revision surgery in predicting the probability of success following stapes surgery at 2- to 6-months follow-up. 2b. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  10. Physical validation issue of the NEPTUNE two-phase modelling: validation plan to be adopted, experimental programs to be set up and associated instrumentation techniques developed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierre Peturaud; Eric Hervieu

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: A long-term joint development program for the next generation of nuclear reactors simulation tools has been launched in 2001 by EDF (Electricite de France) and CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique). The NEPTUNE Project constitutes the Thermal-Hydraulics part of this comprehensive program. Along with the underway development of this new two-phase flow software platform, the physical validation of the involved modelling is a crucial issue, whatever the modelling scale is, and the present paper deals with this issue. After a brief recall about the NEPTUNE platform, the general validation strategy to be adopted is first of all clarified by means of three major features: (i) physical validation in close connection with the concerned industrial applications, (ii) involving (as far as possible) a two-step process successively focusing on dominant separate models and assessing the whole modelling capability, (iii) thanks to the use of relevant data with respect to the validation aims. Based on this general validation process, a four-step generic work approach has been defined; it includes: (i) a thorough analysis of the concerned industrial applications to identify the key physical phenomena involved and associated dominant basic models, (ii) an assessment of these models against the available validation pieces of information, to specify the additional validation needs and define dedicated validation plans, (iii) an inventory and assessment of existing validation data (with respect to the requirements specified in the previous task) to identify the actual needs for new validation data, (iv) the specification of the new experimental programs to be set up to provide the needed new data. This work approach has been applied to the NEPTUNE software, focusing on 8 high priority industrial applications, and it has resulted in the definition of (i) the validation plan and experimental programs to be set up for the open medium 3D modelling

  11. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  12. The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove

    2014-01-01

    Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation

  13. Validation of ASTEC core degradation and containment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruse, Philipp; Brähler, Thimo; Koch, Marco K.

    2014-01-01

    Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum performed in a German funded project validation of in-vessel and containment models of the integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In this paper selected results of this validation are presented. In the in-vessel part, the main point of interest was the validation of the code capability concerning cladding oxidation and hydrogen generation. The ASTEC calculations of QUENCH experiments QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-11 show satisfactory results, despite of some necessary adjustments in the input deck. Furthermore, the oxidation models based on the Cathcart–Pawel and Urbanic–Heidrick correlations are not suitable for higher temperatures while the ASTEC model BEST-FIT based on the Prater–Courtright approach at high temperature gives reliable enough results. One part of the containment model validation was the assessment of three hydrogen combustion models of ASTEC against the experiment BMC Ix9. The simulation results of these models differ from each other and therefore the quality of the simulations depends on the characteristic of each model. Accordingly, the CPA FRONT model, corresponding to the simplest necessary input parameters, provides the best agreement to the experimental data

  14. Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favier, C; Degallier, N; Menkès, C E

    2010-12-01

    Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A discussion on validation of hydrogeological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrera, J.; Mousavi, S.F.; Usunoff, E.J.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Galarza, G.

    1993-01-01

    Groundwater flow and solute transport are often driven by heterogeneities that elude easy identification. It is also difficult to select and describe the physico-chemical processes controlling solute behaviour. As a result, definition of a conceptual model involves numerous assumptions both on the selection of processes and on the representation of their spatial variability. Validating a numerical model by comparing its predictions with actual measurements may not be sufficient for evaluating whether or not it provides a good representation of 'reality'. Predictions will be close to measurements, regardless of model validity, if these are taken from experiments that stress well-calibrated model modes. On the other hand, predictions will be far from measurements when model parameters are very uncertain, even if the model is indeed a very good representation of the real system. Hence, we contend that 'classical' validation of hydrogeological models is not possible. Rather, models should be viewed as theories about the real system. We propose to follow a rigorous modeling approach in which different sources of uncertainty are explicitly recognized. The application of one such approach is illustrated by modeling a laboratory uranium tracer test performed on fresh granite, which was used as Test Case 1b in INTRAVAL. (author)

  16. Developing R&D portfolio business validity simulation model and system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, Hyun Jin; Im, Kwang Hyuk

    2015-01-01

    The R&D has been recognized as critical method to take competitiveness by not only companies but also nations with its value creation such as patent value and new product. Therefore, R&D has been a decision maker's burden in that it is hard to decide how much money to invest, how long time one should spend, and what technology to develop which means it accompanies resources such as budget, time, and manpower. Although there are diverse researches about R&D evaluation, business factors are not concerned enough because almost all previous studies are technology oriented evaluation with one R&D technology based. In that, we early proposed R&D business aspect evaluation model which consists of nine business model components. In this research, we develop a simulation model and system evaluating a company or industry's R&D portfolio with business model point of view and clarify default and control parameters to facilitate evaluator's business validity work in each evaluation module by integrate to one screen.

  17. Verification and validation for waste disposal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made

  18. Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

    2016-10-01

    Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level 3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Probabilistic Matching of Deidentified Data From a Trauma Registry and a Traumatic Brain Injury Model System Center: A Follow-up Validation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Raj G; Wang, Zhensheng; Kesinger, Matthew R; Newman, Mark; Huynh, Toan T; Niemeier, Janet P; Sperry, Jason L; Wagner, Amy K

    2018-04-01

    In a previous study, individuals from a single Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems and trauma center were matched using a novel probabilistic matching algorithm. The Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems is a multicenter prospective cohort study containing more than 14,000 participants with traumatic brain injury, following them from inpatient rehabilitation to the community over the remainder of their lifetime. The National Trauma Databank is the largest aggregation of trauma data in the United States, including more than 6 million records. Linking these two databases offers a broad range of opportunities to explore research questions not otherwise possible. Our objective was to refine and validate the previous protocol at another independent center. An algorithm generation and validation data set were created, and potential matches were blocked by age, sex, and year of injury; total probabilistic weight was calculated based on of 12 common data fields. Validity metrics were calculated using a minimum probabilistic weight of 3. The positive predictive value was 98.2% and 97.4% and sensitivity was 74.1% and 76.3%, in the algorithm generation and validation set, respectively. These metrics were similar to the previous study. Future work will apply the refined probabilistic matching algorithm to the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems and the National Trauma Databank to generate a merged data set for clinical traumatic brain injury research use.

  20. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  1. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  2. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

  3. Validation of mentorship model for newly qualified professional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newly qualified professional nurses (NQPNs) allocated to community health care services require the use of validated model to practice independently. Validation was done to adapt and assess if the model is understood and could be implemented by NQPNs and mentors employed in community health care services.

  4. Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment

  5. Regulatory perspectives on model validation in high-level radioactive waste management programs: A joint NRC/SKI white paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wingefors, S.; Andersson, J.; Norrby, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power lnspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden). Office of Nuclear Waste Safety; Eisenberg, N.A.; Lee, M.P.; Federline, M.V. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards; Sagar, B.; Wittmeyer, G.W. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    1999-03-01

    Validation (or confidence building) should be an important aspect of the regulatory uses of mathematical models in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which scientific validation of models is usually pursued. Because models for a geologic repository performance assessment cannot be tested over the spatial scales of interest and long time periods for which the models will make estimates of performance, the usual avenue for model validation- that is, comparison of model estimates with actual data at the space-time scales of interest- is precluded. Further complicating the model validation process in HLW programs are the uncertainties inherent in describing the geologic complexities of potential disposal sites, and their interactions with the engineered system, with a limited set of generally imprecise data, making it difficult to discriminate between model discrepancy and inadequacy of input data. A successful strategy for model validation, therefore, should attempt to recognize these difficulties, address their resolution, and document the resolution in a careful manner. The end result of validation efforts should be a documented enhancement of confidence in the model to an extent that the model's results can aid in regulatory decision-making. The level of validation needed should be determined by the intended uses of these models, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. This white Paper presents a model validation strategy that can be implemented in a regulatory environment. It was prepared jointly by staff members of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate-SKI. This document should not be viewed as, and is not intended to be formal guidance or as a staff position on this matter. Rather, based on a review of the literature and previous

  6. Regulatory perspectives on model validation in high-level radioactive waste management programs: A joint NRC/SKI white paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingefors, S.; Andersson, J.; Norrby, S.

    1999-03-01

    Validation (or confidence building) should be an important aspect of the regulatory uses of mathematical models in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which scientific validation of models is usually pursued. Because models for a geologic repository performance assessment cannot be tested over the spatial scales of interest and long time periods for which the models will make estimates of performance, the usual avenue for model validation- that is, comparison of model estimates with actual data at the space-time scales of interest- is precluded. Further complicating the model validation process in HLW programs are the uncertainties inherent in describing the geologic complexities of potential disposal sites, and their interactions with the engineered system, with a limited set of generally imprecise data, making it difficult to discriminate between model discrepancy and inadequacy of input data. A successful strategy for model validation, therefore, should attempt to recognize these difficulties, address their resolution, and document the resolution in a careful manner. The end result of validation efforts should be a documented enhancement of confidence in the model to an extent that the model's results can aid in regulatory decision-making. The level of validation needed should be determined by the intended uses of these models, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. This white Paper presents a model validation strategy that can be implemented in a regulatory environment. It was prepared jointly by staff members of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate-SKI. This document should not be viewed as, and is not intended to be formal guidance or as a staff position on this matter. Rather, based on a review of the literature and previous

  7. A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for indoor pollution control using previously estimated kinetic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passalia, Claudio; Alfano, Orlando M. [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); Brandi, Rodolfo J., E-mail: rbrandi@santafe-conicet.gov.ar [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina)

    2012-04-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Indoor pollution control via photocatalytic reactors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Scaling-up methodology based on previously determined mechanistic kinetics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Radiation interchange model between catalytic walls using configuration factors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modeling and experimental validation of a complex geometry photocatalytic reactor. - Abstract: A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for their application in indoor air pollution control is carried out. The methodology implies, firstly, the determination of intrinsic reaction kinetics for the removal of formaldehyde. This is achieved by means of a simple geometry, continuous reactor operating under kinetic control regime and steady state. The kinetic parameters were estimated from experimental data by means of a nonlinear optimization algorithm. The second step was the application of the obtained kinetic parameters to a very different photoreactor configuration. In this case, the reactor is a corrugated wall type using nanosize TiO{sub 2} as catalyst irradiated by UV lamps that provided a spatially uniform radiation field. The radiative transfer within the reactor was modeled through a superficial emission model for the lamps, the ray tracing method and the computation of view factors. The velocity and concentration fields were evaluated by means of a commercial CFD tool (Fluent 12) where the radiation model was introduced externally. The results of the model were compared experimentally in a corrugated wall, bench scale reactor constructed in the laboratory. The overall pollutant conversion showed good agreement between model predictions and experiments, with a root mean square error less than 4%.

  8. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

  9. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options with Validated Analysis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weitzel, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. Transient System Simulation Tool (TRNSYS) is a full distribution system developed that has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. In this study, the Building America team built upon previous analysis modeling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall, 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  10. Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Mark W; Cohen, Samuel; Wang, Hank; Kaung, Aung; Patel, Anish; Tashjian, Vartan; Williams, Demetrius L; Martinez, Bibiana; Spiegel, Brennan M R

    2015-12-01

    To develop a model that identifies patients at high risk for missing scheduled appointments ("no-shows" and cancellations) and to project the impact of predictive overbooking in a gastrointestinal endoscopy clinic-an exemplar resource-intensive environment with a high no-show rate. We retrospectively developed an algorithm that uses electronic health record (EHR) data to identify patients who do not show up to their appointments. Next, we prospectively validated the algorithm at a Veterans Administration healthcare network clinic. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression model that assigned a no-show risk score optimized by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Based on these scores, we created a calendar of projected open slots to offer to patients and compared the daily performance of predictive overbooking with fixed overbooking and typical "1 patient, 1 slot" scheduling. Data from 1392 patients identified several predictors of no-show, including previous absenteeism, comorbid disease burden, and current diagnoses of mood and substance use disorders. The model correctly classified most patients during the development (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80) and validation phases (AUC = 0.75). Prospective testing in 1197 patients found that predictive overbooking averaged 0.51 unused appointments per day versus 6.18 for typical booking (difference = -5.67; 95% CI, -6.48 to -4.87; P < .0001). Predictive overbooking could have increased service utilization from 62% to 97% of capacity, with only rare clinic overflows. Information from EHRs can accurately predict whether patients will no-show. This method can be used to overbook appointments, thereby maximizing service utilization while staying within clinic capacity.

  11. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....

  12. Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)

  13. Modeling, implementation, and validation of arterial travel time reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Previous research funded by Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) developed a method for estimating : travel time reliability for arterials. This method was not initially implemented or validated using field data. This : project evaluated and r...

  14. A comprehensive validation toolbox for regional ocean models - Outline, implementation and application to the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandt, Simon; Laagemaa, Priidik; Janssen, Frank

    2014-05-01

    The systematic and objective comparison between output from a numerical ocean model and a set of observations, called validation in the context of this presentation, is a beneficial activity at several stages, starting from early steps in model development and ending at the quality control of model based products delivered to customers. Even though the importance of this kind of validation work is widely acknowledged it is often not among the most popular tasks in ocean modelling. In order to ease the validation work a comprehensive toolbox has been developed in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. The objective of this toolbox is to carry out validation integrating different data sources, e.g. time-series at stations, vertical profiles, surface fields or along track satellite data, with one single program call. The validation toolbox, implemented in MATLAB, features all parts of the validation process - ranging from read-in procedures of datasets to the graphical and numerical output of statistical metrics of the comparison. The basic idea is to have only one well-defined validation schedule for all applications, in which all parts of the validation process are executed. Each part, e.g. read-in procedures, forms a module in which all available functions of this particular part are collected. The interface between the functions, the module and the validation schedule is highly standardized. Functions of a module are set up for certain validation tasks, new functions can be implemented into the appropriate module without affecting the functionality of the toolbox. The functions are assigned for each validation task in user specific settings, which are externally stored in so-called namelists and gather all information of the used datasets as well as paths and metadata. In the framework of the MyOcean-2 project the toolbox is frequently used to validate the forecast products of the Baltic Sea Marine Forecasting Centre. Hereby the performance of any new product

  15. Developing R&D Portfolio Business Validity Simulation Model and System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Jin Yeo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The R&D has been recognized as critical method to take competitiveness by not only companies but also nations with its value creation such as patent value and new product. Therefore, R&D has been a decision maker’s burden in that it is hard to decide how much money to invest, how long time one should spend, and what technology to develop which means it accompanies resources such as budget, time, and manpower. Although there are diverse researches about R&D evaluation, business factors are not concerned enough because almost all previous studies are technology oriented evaluation with one R&D technology based. In that, we early proposed R&D business aspect evaluation model which consists of nine business model components. In this research, we develop a simulation model and system evaluating a company or industry’s R&D portfolio with business model point of view and clarify default and control parameters to facilitate evaluator’s business validity work in each evaluation module by integrate to one screen.

  16. Developing R&D Portfolio Business Validity Simulation Model and System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The R&D has been recognized as critical method to take competitiveness by not only companies but also nations with its value creation such as patent value and new product. Therefore, R&D has been a decision maker's burden in that it is hard to decide how much money to invest, how long time one should spend, and what technology to develop which means it accompanies resources such as budget, time, and manpower. Although there are diverse researches about R&D evaluation, business factors are not concerned enough because almost all previous studies are technology oriented evaluation with one R&D technology based. In that, we early proposed R&D business aspect evaluation model which consists of nine business model components. In this research, we develop a simulation model and system evaluating a company or industry's R&D portfolio with business model point of view and clarify default and control parameters to facilitate evaluator's business validity work in each evaluation module by integrate to one screen. PMID:25893209

  17. Prospective validation of pathologic complete response models in rectal cancer: Transferability and reproducibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Soest, Johan; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Stiphout, Ruud; Gatta, Roberto; Damiani, Andrea; Valentini, Vincenzo; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2017-09-01

    Multiple models have been developed to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. Unfortunately, validation of these models normally omit the implications of cohort differences on prediction model performance. In this work, we will perform a prospective validation of three pCR models, including information whether this validation will target transferability or reproducibility (cohort differences) of the given models. We applied a novel methodology, the cohort differences model, to predict whether a patient belongs to the training or to the validation cohort. If the cohort differences model performs well, it would suggest a large difference in cohort characteristics meaning we would validate the transferability of the model rather than reproducibility. We tested our method in a prospective validation of three existing models for pCR prediction in 154 patients. Our results showed a large difference between training and validation cohort for one of the three tested models [Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) cohort differences model: 0.85], signaling the validation leans towards transferability. Two out of three models had a lower AUC for validation (0.66 and 0.58), one model showed a higher AUC in the validation cohort (0.70). We have successfully applied a new methodology in the validation of three prediction models, which allows us to indicate if a validation targeted transferability (large differences between training/validation cohort) or reproducibility (small cohort differences). © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  18. Validation of ASTEC V2 models for the behaviour of corium in the vessel lower head

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carénini, L.; Fleurot, J.; Fichot, F.

    2014-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the presentation of validation cases carried out for the models describing the corium behaviour in the “lower plenum” of the reactor vessel implemented in the V2.0 version of the ASTEC integral code, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In the ASTEC architecture, these models are grouped within the single ICARE module and they are all activated in typical accident scenarios. Therefore, it is important to check the validity of each individual model, as long as experiments are available for which a single physical process is involved. The results of ASTEC applications against the following experiments are presented: FARO (corium jet fragmentation), LIVE (heat transfer between a molten pool and the vessel), MASCA (separation and stratification of corium non miscible phases) and OLHF (mechanical failure of the vessel). Compared to the previous ASTEC V1.3 version, the validation matrix is extended. This work allows determining recommended values for some model parameters (e.g. debris particle size in the fragmentation model and criterion for debris bed liquefaction). Almost all the processes governing the corium behaviour, its thermal interaction with the vessel wall and the vessel failure are modelled in ASTEC and these models have been assessed individually with satisfactory results. The main uncertainties appear to be related to the calculation of transient evolutions

  19. A methodology for PSA model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.

    1995-09-01

    This document reports Phase 2 of work undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in support of the Atomic Energy Control Board's Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) review. A methodology is presented for the systematic review and evaluation of a PSA model. These methods are intended to support consideration of the following question: To within the scope and depth of modeling resolution of a PSA study, is the resultant model a complete and accurate representation of the subject plant? This question was identified as a key PSA validation issue in SAIC's Phase 1 project. The validation methods are based on a model transformation process devised to enhance the transparency of the modeling assumptions. Through conversion to a 'success-oriented' framework, a closer correspondence to plant design and operational specifications is achieved. This can both enhance the scrutability of the model by plant personnel, and provide an alternative perspective on the model that may assist in the identification of deficiencies. The model transformation process is defined and applied to fault trees documented in the Darlington Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. A tentative real-time process is outlined for implementation and documentation of a PSA review based on the proposed methods. (author). 11 refs., 9 tabs., 30 refs

  20. Semi-physiologic model validation and bioequivalence trials simulation to select the best analyte for acetylsalicylic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuesta-Gragera, Ana; Navarro-Fontestad, Carmen; Mangas-Sanjuan, Victor; González-Álvarez, Isabel; García-Arieta, Alfredo; Trocóniz, Iñaki F; Casabó, Vicente G; Bermejo, Marival

    2015-07-10

    The objective of this paper is to apply a previously developed semi-physiologic pharmacokinetic model implemented in NONMEM to simulate bioequivalence trials (BE) of acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) in order to validate the model performance against ASA human experimental data. ASA is a drug with first-pass hepatic and intestinal metabolism following Michaelis-Menten kinetics that leads to the formation of two main metabolites in two generations (first and second generation metabolites). The first aim was to adapt the semi-physiological model for ASA in NOMMEN using ASA pharmacokinetic parameters from literature, showing its sequential metabolism. The second aim was to validate this model by comparing the results obtained in NONMEM simulations with published experimental data at a dose of 1000 mg. The validated model was used to simulate bioequivalence trials at 3 dose schemes (100, 1000 and 3000 mg) and with 6 test formulations with decreasing in vivo dissolution rate constants versus the reference formulation (kD 8-0.25 h (-1)). Finally, the third aim was to determine which analyte (parent drug, first generation or second generation metabolite) was more sensitive to changes in formulation performance. The validation results showed that the concentration-time curves obtained with the simulations reproduced closely the published experimental data, confirming model performance. The parent drug (ASA) was the analyte that showed to be more sensitive to the decrease in pharmaceutical quality, with the highest decrease in Cmax and AUC ratio between test and reference formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A validated model for the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test subdomain structure in chronic rhinosinusitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Allen L; Wesely, Nicholas C; Hoehle, Lloyd P; Phillips, Katie M; Yamasaki, Alisa; Campbell, Adam P; Gregorio, Luciano L; Killeen, Thomas E; Caradonna, David S; Meier, Josh C; Gray, Stacey T; Sedaghat, Ahmad R

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified subdomains of the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22), reflecting distinct and largely independent categories of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) symptoms. However, no study has validated the subdomain structure of the SNOT-22. This study aims to validate the existence of underlying symptom subdomains of the SNOT-22 using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and to develop a subdomain model that practitioners and researchers can use to describe CRS symptomatology. A total of 800 patients with CRS were included into this cross-sectional study (400 CRS patients from Boston, MA, and 400 CRS patients from Reno, NV). Their SNOT-22 responses were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine the number of symptom subdomains. A CFA was performed to develop a validated measurement model for the underlying SNOT-22 subdomains along with various tests of validity and goodness of fit. EFA demonstrated 4 distinct factors reflecting: sleep, nasal, otologic/facial pain, and emotional symptoms (Cronbach's alpha, >0.7; Bartlett's test of sphericity, p Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin >0.90), independent of geographic locale. The corresponding CFA measurement model demonstrated excellent measures of fit (root mean square error of approximation, 0.95; Tucker-Lewis index, >0.95) and measures of construct validity (heterotrait-monotrait [HTMT] ratio, 0.7), again independent of geographic locale. The use of the 4-subdomain structure for SNOT-22 (reflecting sleep, nasal, otologic/facial pain, and emotional symptoms of CRS) was validated as the most appropriate to calculate SNOT-22 subdomain scores for patients from different geographic regions using CFA. © 2017 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

  2. Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

    2012-11-01

    We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor-learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of value. For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor-learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

  3. Validation and comparison of dispersion models of RTARC DSS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.; Pospisil, M.

    2004-01-01

    RTARC DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) is a computer code developed at the VUJE Trnava, Inc. (Stubna, M. et al, 1993). The code calculations include atmospheric transport and diffusion, dose assessment, evaluation and displaying of the affected zones, evaluation of the early health effects, concentration and dose rate time dependence in the selected sites etc. The simulation of the protective measures (sheltering, iodine administration) is involved. The aim of this paper is to present the process of validation of the RTARC dispersion models. RTARC includes models for calculations of release for very short (Method Monte Carlo - MEMOC), short (Gaussian Straight-Line Model) and long distances (Puff Trajectory Model - PTM). Validation of the code RTARC was performed using the results of comparisons and experiments summarized in the Table 1.: 1. Experiments and comparisons in the process of validation of the system RTARC - experiments or comparison - distance - model. Wind tunnel experiments (Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Muenchen) - Area of NPP - Method Monte Carlo. INEL (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) - short/medium - Gaussian model and multi tracer atmospheric experiment - distances - PTM. Model Validation Kit - short distances - Gaussian model. STEP II.b 'Realistic Case Studies' - long distances - PTM. ENSEMBLE comparison - long distances - PTM (orig.)

  4. Validation of Storm Water Management Model Storm Control Measures Modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, M. A.; Platz, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computational code heavily relied upon by industry for the simulation of wastewater and stormwater infrastructure performance. Many municipalities are relying on SWMM results to design multi-billion-dollar, multi-decade infrastructure upgrades. Since the 1970's, EPA and others have developed five major releases, the most recent ones containing storm control measures modules for green infrastructure. The main objective of this study was to quantify the accuracy with which SWMM v5.1.10 simulates the hydrologic activity of previously monitored low impact developments. Model performance was evaluated with a mathematical comparison of outflow hydrographs and total outflow volumes, using empirical data and a multi-event, multi-objective calibration method. The calibration methodology utilized PEST++ Version 3, a parameter estimation tool, which aided in the selection of unmeasured hydrologic parameters. From the validation study and sensitivity analysis, several model improvements were identified to advance SWMM LID Module performance for permeable pavements, infiltration units and green roofs, and these were performed and reported herein. Overall, it was determined that SWMM can successfully simulate low impact development controls given accurate model confirmation, parameter measurement, and model calibration.

  5. Developing a model for validation and prediction of bank customer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Credit risk is the most important risk of banks. The main approaches of the bank to reduce credit risk are correct validation using the final status and the validation model parameters. High fuel of bank reserves and lost or outstanding facilities of banks indicate the lack of appropriate validation models in the banking network.

  6. External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

    2016-04-01

    To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  7. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  8. Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

    2004-01-01

    Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

  9. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

  10. Derivation and validation of a novel risk score for safe discharge after acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakland, Kathryn; Jairath, Vipul; Uberoi, Raman; Guy, Richard; Ayaru, Lakshmana; Mortensen, Neil; Murphy, Mike F; Collins, Gary S

    2017-09-01

    Acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding is a common reason for emergency hospital admission, and identification of patients at low risk of harm, who are therefore suitable for outpatient investigation, is a clinical and research priority. We aimed to develop and externally validate a simple risk score to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding who could safely avoid hospital admission. We undertook model development with data from the National Comparative Audit of Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding from 143 hospitals in the UK in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to identify predictors of safe discharge, defined as the absence of rebleeding, blood transfusion, therapeutic intervention, 28 day readmission, or death. The model was converted into a simplified risk scoring system and was externally validated in 288 patients admitted with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (184 safely discharged) from two UK hospitals (Charing Cross Hospital, London, and Hammersmith Hospital, London) that had not contributed data to the development cohort. We calculated C statistics for the new model and did a comparative assessment with six previously developed risk scores. Of 2336 prospectively identified admissions in the development cohort, 1599 (68%) were safely discharged. Age, sex, previous admission for lower gastrointestinal bleeding, rectal examination findings, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and haemoglobin concentration strongly discriminated safe discharge in the development cohort (C statistic 0·84, 95% CI 0·82-0·86) and in the validation cohort (0·79, 0·73-0·84). Calibration plots showed the new risk score to have good calibration in the validation cohort. The score was better than the Rockall, Blatchford, Strate, BLEED, AIMS65, and NOBLADS scores in predicting safe discharge. A score of 8 or less predicts a 95% probability of safe discharge. We developed and validated a novel clinical prediction model with good discriminative

  11. Experimental Validation of Flow Force Models for Fast Switching Valves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Nørgård, Christian

    2017-01-01

    This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties of the surroun......This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties...... to compare and validate different models, where an effort is directed towards capturing the fluid squeeze effect just before material on material contact. The test data is compared with simulation data relying solely on analytic formulations. The general dynamics of the plunger is validated...

  12. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  13. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))

    2008-01-15

    few months; (ii) Both 3D-models miss some rapid up..and down-welling episodes that were clearly registered on all salinity- and temperature meters near the northern interface; (iii) The velocity profiles measured at the interface between the two nested models display a low but mainly positive correlation; (iv) The salinity dynamics in the interior station is fully acceptably simulated with improved correlation coefficients towards the surface; (v) The temperature profiles also generally display a high correlation between measurements and simulated data, certifying that the heat transfer through the surface is acceptably well simulated to render the salinity the dominating factor determining the density, but yet leaving room for further improvements. It seems safe to conclude that the validation of velocity components has confirmed what has been found in many instances previously, namely that this is a challenge that demands considerably more measuring effort than has been possible to muster in this study in order to average out sub-grid eddies that the model grid does not resolve. For the scalar fields temperature is acceptably well captured by the models, but this is judged to be more an effect of the seasonal variation than an expression of the virtue of the actual models. The internal salinity dynamics is the strong point of the model. Its temporal development at the inner station is convincingly well reproduced by this model approach. This means that the overall computed water exchange of the Oeregrundsgrepen can continued to be invested with due confidence

  14. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg

    2008-01-01

    few months; (ii) Both 3D-models miss some rapid up..and down-welling episodes that were clearly registered on all salinity- and temperature meters near the northern interface; (iii) The velocity profiles measured at the interface between the two nested models display a low but mainly positive correlation; (iv) The salinity dynamics in the interior station is fully acceptably simulated with improved correlation coefficients towards the surface; (v) The temperature profiles also generally display a high correlation between measurements and simulated data, certifying that the heat transfer through the surface is acceptably well simulated to render the salinity the dominating factor determining the density, but yet leaving room for further improvements. It seems safe to conclude that the validation of velocity components has confirmed what has been found in many instances previously, namely that this is a challenge that demands considerably more measuring effort than has been possible to muster in this study in order to average out sub-grid eddies that the model grid does not resolve. For the scalar fields temperature is acceptably well captured by the models, but this is judged to be more an effect of the seasonal variation than an expression of the virtue of the actual models. The internal salinity dynamics is the strong point of the model. Its temporal development at the inner station is convincingly well reproduced by this model approach. This means that the overall computed water exchange of the Oeregrundsgrepen can continued to be invested with due confidence

  15. Preliminary validation of a Monte Carlo model for IMRT fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Tracy; Lye, Jessica; Mohammadi, Mohammad

    2011-01-01

    Full text: A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta linac, validated for medium to large (10-30 cm) symmetric fields, has been investigated for small, irregular and asymmetric fields suitable for IMRT treatments. The model has been validated with field segments using radiochromic film in solid water. The modelled positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves have been validated using EBT film, In the model, electrons with a narrow energy spectrum are incident on the target and all components of the linac head are included. The MLC is modelled using the EGSnrc MLCE component module. For the validation, a number of single complex IMRT segments with dimensions approximately 1-8 cm were delivered to film in solid water (see Fig, I), The same segments were modelled using EGSnrc by adjusting the MLC leaf positions in the model validated for 10 cm symmetric fields. Dose distributions along the centre of each MLC leaf as determined by both methods were compared. A picket fence test was also performed to confirm the MLC leaf positions. 95% of the points in the modelled dose distribution along the leaf axis agree with the film measurement to within 1%/1 mm for dose difference and distance to agreement. Areas of most deviation occur in the penumbra region. A system has been developed to calculate the MLC leaf positions in the model for any planned field size.

  16. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  17. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  18. BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1988-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

  19. BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1987-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

  20. A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  1. A practical approach to validating a PD model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, Lydian; Koning, Ruud H.; Lensink, Robert; Medema, M.

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  2. Validation of a Predictive Model for Survival in Metastatic Cancer Patients Attending an Outpatient Palliative Radiotherapy Clinic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors

  3. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  4. The turbulent viscosity models and their experimental validation; Les modeles de viscosite turbulente et leur validation experimentale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)

  5. Validation of Neutron Calculation Codes and Models by means of benchmark cases in the frame of the Binational Commission of Nuclear Energy. Probabilistic Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dos Santos, Adimir; Siqueira, Paulo de Tarso D.; Andrade e Silva, Graciete Simões; Grant, Carlos; Tarazaga, Ariel E.; Barberis, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    In year 2008 the Atomic Energy National Commission (CNEA) of Argentina, and the Brazilian Institute of Energetic and Nuclear Research (IPEN), under the frame of Nuclear Energy Argentine Brazilian Agreement (COBEN), among many others, included the project “Validation and Verification of Calculation Methods used for Research and Experimental Reactors . At this time, it was established that the validation was to be performed with models implemented in the deterministic codes HUEMUL and PUMA (cell and reactor codes) developed by CNEA and those ones implemented in MCNP by CNEA and IPEN. The necessary data for these validations would correspond to theoretical-experimental reference cases in the research reactor IPEN/MB-01 located in São Paulo, Brazil. The staff of the group Reactor and Nuclear Power Studies (SERC) of CNEA, from the argentine side, performed calculations with deterministic models (HUEMUL-PUMA) and probabilistic methods (MCNP) modeling a great number of physical situations of de reactor, which previously have been studied and modeled by members of the Center of Nuclear Engineering of the IPEN, whose results were extensively provided to CNEA. In this paper results of comparison of calculated and experimental results for critical configurations, temperature coefficients, kinetic parameters and fission rates evaluated with probabilistic models spatial distributions are shown. (author)

  6. Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.

  7. Concepts of Model Verification and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.

    2004-01-01

    Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model

  8. Validation of a Mathematical Model for Green Algae (Raphidocelis Subcapitata Growth and Implications for a Coupled Dynamical System with Daphnia Magna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Stemkovski

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Toxicity testing in populations probes for responses in demographic variables to anthropogenic or natural chemical changes in the environment. Importantly, these tests are primarily performed on species in isolation of adjacent tropic levels in their ecosystem. The development and validation of coupled species models may aid in predicting adverse outcomes at the ecosystems level. Here, we aim to validate a model for the population dynamics of the green algae Raphidocelis subcapitata, a planktonic species that is often used as a primary food source in toxicity experiments for the fresh water crustacean Daphnia magna. We collected longitudinal data from three replicate population experiments of R. subcapitata. We used this data with statistical model comparison tests and uncertainty quantification techniques to compare the performance of four models: the Logistic model, the Bernoulli model, the Gompertz model, and a discretization of the Logistic model. Overall, our results suggest that the logistic model is the most accurate continuous model for R. subcapitata population growth. We then implement the numerical discretization showing how the continuous logistic model for algae can be coupled to a previously validated discrete-time population model for D. magna.

  9. Verification and validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Jackson, C.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.

    1986-12-01

    The numerical accuracy of the computer models for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport that are to be used in repository safety assessment must be tested, and their ability to describe experimental data assessed: they must be verified and validated respectively. Also appropriate ways to use the codes in performance assessments, taking into account uncertainties in present data and future conditions, must be studied. These objectives are being met by participation in international exercises, by developing bench-mark problems, and by analysing experiments. In particular the project has funded participation in the HYDROCOIN project for groundwater flow models, the Natural Analogues Working Group, and the INTRAVAL project for geosphere models. (author)

  10. Construct Validity of Fresh Frozen Human Cadaver as a Training Model in Minimal Access Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macafee, David; Pranesh, Nagarajan; Horgan, Alan F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The construct validity of fresh human cadaver as a training tool has not been established previously. The aims of this study were to investigate the construct validity of fresh frozen human cadaver as a method of training in minimal access surgery and determine if novices can be rapidly trained using this model to a safe level of performance. Methods: Junior surgical trainees, novices (cadavers. Expert laparoscopists (>100 laparoscopic procedures) performed 3 repetitions of identical tasks. Performances were scored using a validated, objective Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills scale. Scores for 3 consecutive repetitions were compared between experts and novices to determine construct validity. Furthermore, to determine if the novices reached a safe level, a trimmed mean of the experts score was used to define a benchmark. Mann-Whitney U test was used for construct validity analysis and 1-sample t test to compare performances of the novice group with the benchmark safe score. Results: Ten novices and 2 experts were recruited. Four out of 5 tasks (nondominant to dominant hand transfer; simulated appendicectomy; intracorporeal and extracorporeal knot tying) showed construct validity. Novices’ scores became comparable to benchmark scores between the eighth and tenth repetition. Conclusion: Minimal access surgical training using fresh frozen human cadavers appears to have construct validity. The laparoscopic skills of novices can be accelerated through to a safe level within 8 to 10 repetitions. PMID:23318058

  11. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. Stockman

    2001-09-28

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

  12. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)

  13. SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.

  14. Validation Plan of Turbulence Models for Internal Gas Flow Analysis in a Heated Rectangular Riser Duct

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sin-Yeob; Shin, Dong-Ho; Park, Goon-Cherl; Cho, Hyoung Kyu [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chan-Soo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    VHTR being developed at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute adopts an air-cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) incorporating rectangular riser channels to remove the afterheat emitted from the reactor vessel. Because the performance of RCCS is determined by heat removal rate through the RCCS riser, it is important to understand the heat transfer phenomena in the RCCS riser to ensure the safety of the reactor. In the mixed convection, due to the buoyance force induced by temperature and density differences, local flow structure and heat transfer mode near the heated wall have significantly dissimilar characteristics from both forced convection and free convection. In this study, benchmark calculation was conducted to reproduce the previous statements that V2F turbulence model can capture the mixed convection phenomena with the Shehata's experimental data. Then, the necessity of the model validation for the mixed convection phenomena was confirmed with the CFD analyses for the geometry of the prototype RCCS riser. For the purpose of validating the turbulence models for mixed convection phenomena in the heated rectangular riser duct, validation plan with three experimental tests was introduced. Among them, the flow visualization test facility with preserved cross-section geometry was introduced and a preliminary test result was shown.

  15. Development and validation of a mass casualty conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Joan M; Effken, Judith A

    2010-03-01

    To develop and validate a conceptual model that provides a framework for the development and evaluation of information systems for mass casualty events. The model was designed based on extant literature and existing theoretical models. A purposeful sample of 18 experts validated the model. Open-ended questions, as well as a 7-point Likert scale, were used to measure expert consensus on the importance of each construct and its relationship in the model and the usefulness of the model to future research. Computer-mediated applications were used to facilitate a modified Delphi technique through which a panel of experts provided validation for the conceptual model. Rounds of questions continued until consensus was reached, as measured by an interquartile range (no more than 1 scale point for each item); stability (change in the distribution of responses less than 15% between rounds); and percent agreement (70% or greater) for indicator questions. Two rounds of the Delphi process were needed to satisfy the criteria for consensus or stability related to the constructs, relationships, and indicators in the model. The panel reached consensus or sufficient stability to retain all 10 constructs, 9 relationships, and 39 of 44 indicators. Experts viewed the model as useful (mean of 5.3 on a 7-point scale). Validation of the model provides the first step in understanding the context in which mass casualty events take place and identifying variables that impact outcomes of care. This study provides a foundation for understanding the complexity of mass casualty care, the roles that nurses play in mass casualty events, and factors that must be considered in designing and evaluating information-communication systems to support effective triage under these conditions.

  16. Validation of the actuator line/Navier Stokes technique using mexico measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shen, Wen Zhong; Zhu, Wei Jun; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2010-01-01

    This paper concerns the contribution of DTU MEK in the international research collaboration project (MexNext) within the framework of IEA Annex 29 to validate aerodynamic models or CFD codes using the existing measurements made in the previous EU funded projectMEXICO (Model Experiments in Control......This paper concerns the contribution of DTU MEK in the international research collaboration project (MexNext) within the framework of IEA Annex 29 to validate aerodynamic models or CFD codes using the existing measurements made in the previous EU funded projectMEXICO (Model Experiments...... in Controlled Conditions). The Actuator Line/Navier Stokes (AL/NS) technique developed at DTU is validated against the detailed MEXICO measurements. The AL/NS computations without the DNW wind tunnel with speeds of 10m/s, 15m/s and 24m/s. Comparisons of blade loading between computations and measurements show...

  17. A new method to model electroconvulsive therapy in rats with increased construct validity and enhanced translational value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theilmann, Wiebke; Löscher, Wolfgang; Socala, Katarzyna; Frieling, Helge; Bleich, Stefan; Brandt, Claudia

    2014-06-01

    Electroconvulsive therapy is the most effective therapy for major depressive disorder (MDD). The remission rate is above 50% in previously pharmacoresistant patients but the mechanisms of action are not fully understood. Electroconvulsive stimulation (ECS) in rodents mimics antidepressant electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in humans and is widely used to investigate the underlying mechanisms of ECT. For the translational value of findings in animal models it is essential to establish models with the highest construct, face and predictive validity possible. The commonly used model for ECT in rodents does not meet the demand for high construct validity. For ECT, cortical surface electrodes are used to induce therapeutic seizures whereas ECS in rodents is exclusively performed by auricular or corneal electrodes. However, the stimulation site has a major impact on the type and spread of the induced seizure activity and its antidepressant effect. We propose a method in which ECS is performed by screw electrodes placed above the motor cortex of rats to closely simulate the clinical situation and thereby increase the construct validity of the model. Cortical ECS in rats induced reliably seizures comparable to human ECT. Cortical ECS was more effective than auricular ECS to reduce immobility in the forced swim test. Importantly, auricular stimulation had a negative influence on the general health condition of the rats with signs of fear during the stimulation sessions. These results suggest that auricular ECS in rats is not a suitable ECT model. Cortical ECS in rats promises to be a valid method to mimic ECT. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  19. Model-based verification and validation of the SMAP uplink processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, M. O.; Dubos, G. F.; Tirona, J.; Standley, S.

    Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is being used increasingly within the spacecraft design community because of its benefits when compared to document-based approaches. As the complexity of projects expands dramatically with continually increasing computational power and technology infusion, the time and effort needed for verification and validation (V& V) increases geometrically. Using simulation to perform design validation with system-level models earlier in the life cycle stands to bridge the gap between design of the system (based on system-level requirements) and verifying those requirements/validating the system as a whole. This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V& V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process. Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based development efforts.

  20. Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-02-01

    The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

  1. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-12-18

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  2. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-09-24

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  3. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-10-31

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  4. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolley, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS MandO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS MandO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS MandO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS MandO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  5. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M andO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M andO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M andO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M andO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  6. Validation of Computer Models for Homeland Security Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweppe, John E.; Ely, James; Kouzes, Richard T.; McConn, Ronald J.; Pagh, Richard T.; Robinson, Sean M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Borgardt, James D.; Bender, Sarah E.; Earnhart, Alison H.

    2005-01-01

    At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are developing computer models of radiation portal monitors for screening vehicles and cargo. Detailed models of the radiation detection equipment, vehicles, cargo containers, cargos, and radioactive sources have been created. These are used to determine the optimal configuration of detectors and the best alarm algorithms for the detection of items of interest while minimizing nuisance alarms due to the presence of legitimate radioactive material in the commerce stream. Most of the modeling is done with the Monte Carlo code MCNP to describe the transport of gammas and neutrons from extended sources through large, irregularly shaped absorbers to large detectors. A fundamental prerequisite is the validation of the computational models against field measurements. We describe the first step of this validation process, the comparison of the models to measurements with bare static sources

  7. Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk Nordstrom, D.

    2012-01-01

    Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.

  8. Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

  9. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation

  10. Numerical modelling of transdermal delivery from matrix systems: parametric study and experimental validation with silicone matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snorradóttir, Bergthóra S; Jónsdóttir, Fjóla; Sigurdsson, Sven Th; Másson, Már

    2014-08-01

    A model is presented for transdermal drug delivery from single-layered silicone matrix systems. The work is based on our previous results that, in particular, extend the well-known Higuchi model. Recently, we have introduced a numerical transient model describing matrix systems where the drug dissolution can be non-instantaneous. Furthermore, our model can describe complex interactions within a multi-layered matrix and the matrix to skin boundary. The power of the modelling approach presented here is further illustrated by allowing the possibility of a donor solution. The model is validated by a comparison with experimental data, as well as validating the parameter values against each other, using various configurations with donor solution, silicone matrix and skin. Our results show that the model is a good approximation to real multi-layered delivery systems. The model offers the ability of comparing drug release for ibuprofen and diclofenac, which cannot be analysed by the Higuchi model because the dissolution in the latter case turns out to be limited. The experiments and numerical model outlined in this study could also be adjusted to more general formulations, which enhances the utility of the numerical model as a design tool for the development of drug-loaded matrices for trans-membrane and transdermal delivery. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

  11. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corapcioglu, M Y; Sung, K; Rhykerd, R L; Munster, C; Drew, M [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg[sub -1

  12. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  13. Verification and Validation of Tropospheric Model/Database

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Junho, choi

    1998-01-01

    A verification and validation of tropospheric models and databases has been performed based on ray tracing algorithm, statistical analysis, test on real time system operation, and other technical evaluation process...

  14. Replication and validation of higher order models demonstrated that a summary score for the EORTC QLQ-C30 is robust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giesinger, Johannes M.; Kieffer, Jacobien M.; Fayers, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To further evaluate the higher order measurement structure of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (QLQ-C30), with the aim of generating a summary score. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Using pretreatment QLQ-C30 data (N...... = 3,282), we conducted confirmatory factor analyses to test seven previously evaluated higher order models. We compared the summary score(s) derived from the best performing higher order model with the original QLQ-C30 scale scores, using tumor stage, performance status, and change over time (N = 244......) as grouping variables. RESULTS: Although all models showed acceptable fit, we continued in the interest of parsimony with known-groups validity and responsiveness analyses using a summary score derived from the single higher order factor model. The validity and responsiveness of this QLQ-C30 summary score...

  15. From control to causation: Validating a 'complex systems model' of running-related injury development and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, A; Salmon, P M; Nielsen, R O; Read, G J M; Finch, C F

    2017-11-01

    There is a need for an ecological and complex systems approach for better understanding the development and prevention of running-related injury (RRI). In a previous article, we proposed a prototype model of the Australian recreational distance running system which was based on the Systems Theoretic Accident Mapping and Processes (STAMP) method. That model included the influence of political, organisational, managerial, and sociocultural determinants alongside individual-level factors in relation to RRI development. The purpose of this study was to validate that prototype model by drawing on the expertise of both systems thinking and distance running experts. This study used a modified Delphi technique involving a series of online surveys (December 2016- March 2017). The initial survey was divided into four sections containing a total of seven questions pertaining to different features associated with the prototype model. Consensus in opinion about the validity of the prototype model was reached when the number of experts who agreed or disagreed with survey statement was ≥75% of the total number of respondents. A total of two Delphi rounds was needed to validate the prototype model. Out of a total of 51 experts who were initially contacted, 50.9% (n = 26) completed the first round of the Delphi, and 92.3% (n = 24) of those in the first round participated in the second. Most of the 24 full participants considered themselves to be a running expert (66.7%), and approximately a third indicated their expertise as a systems thinker (33.3%). After the second round, 91.7% of the experts agreed that the prototype model was a valid description of the Australian distance running system. This is the first study to formally examine the development and prevention of RRI from an ecological and complex systems perspective. The validated model of the Australian distance running system facilitates theoretical advancement in terms of identifying practical system

  16. Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

  17. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.

    2017-01-01

    Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid

  18. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gomes

    Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to

  19. Aerosol modelling and validation during ESCOMPTE 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousin, F.; Liousse, C.; Cachier, H.; Bessagnet, B.; Guillaume, B.; Rosset, R.

    The ESCOMPTE 2001 programme (Atmospheric Research. 69(3-4) (2004) 241) has resulted in an exhaustive set of dynamical, radiative, gas and aerosol observations (surface and aircraft measurements). A previous paper (Atmospheric Research. (2004) in press) has dealt with dynamics and gas-phase chemistry. The present paper is an extension to aerosol formation, transport and evolution. To account for important loadings of primary and secondary aerosols and their transformation processes in the ESCOMPTE domain, the ORISAM aerosol module (Atmospheric Environment. 35 (2001) 4751) was implemented on-line in the air-quality Meso-NH-C model. Additional developments have been introduced in ORganic and Inorganic Spectral Aerosol Module (ORISAM) to improve the comparison between simulations and experimental surface and aircraft field data. This paper discusses this comparison for a simulation performed during one selected day, 24 June 2001, during the Intensive Observation Period IOP2b. Our work relies on BC and OCp emission inventories specifically developed for ESCOMPTE. This study confirms the need for a fine resolution aerosol inventory with spectral chemical speciation. BC levels are satisfactorily reproduced, thus validating our emission inventory and its processing through Meso-NH-C. However, comparisons for reactive species generally denote an underestimation of concentrations. Organic aerosol levels are rather well simulated though with a trend to underestimation in the afternoon. Inorganic aerosol species are underestimated for several reasons, some of them have been identified. For sulphates, primary emissions were introduced. Improvement was obtained too for modelled nitrate and ammonium levels after introducing heterogeneous chemistry. However, no modelling of terrigeneous particles is probably a major cause for nitrates and ammonium underestimations. Particle numbers and size distributions are well reproduced, but only in the submicrometer range. Our work points out

  20. Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

    2017-02-01

    Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

  1. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  2. Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

    2003-10-01

    The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

  3. List of new names and new combinations previously effectively, but not validly, published.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    The purpose of this announcement is to effect the valid publication of the following effectively published new names and new combinations under the procedure described in the Bacteriological Code (1990 Revision). Authors and other individuals wishing to have new names and/or combinations included in future lists should send three copies of the pertinent reprint or photocopies thereof, or an electronic copy of the published paper, to the IJSEM Editorial Office for confirmation that all of the other requirements for valid publication have been met. It is also a requirement of IJSEM and the ICSP that authors of new species, new subspecies and new combinations provide evidence that types are deposited in two recognized culture collections in two different countries (i.e. documents certifying deposition and availability of type strains). It should be noted that the date of valid publication of these new names and combinations is the date of publication of this list, not the date of the original publication of the names and combinations. The authors of the new names and combinations are as given below, and these authors' names will be included in the author index of the present issue and in the volume author index. Inclusion of a name on these lists validates the publication of the name and thereby makes it available in bacteriological nomenclature. The inclusion of a name on this list is not to be construed as taxonomic acceptance of the taxon to which the name is applied. Indeed, some of these names may, in time, be shown to be synonyms, or the organisms may be transferred to another genus, thus necessitating the creation of a new combination.

  4. Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing

  5. Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

    2009-01-01

    Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

  6. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    & Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation......The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...

  7. Benchmark validation of statistical models: Application to mediation analysis of imagery and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P; Valente, Matthew J; Wurpts, Ingrid C

    2018-03-29

    This article describes benchmark validation, an approach to validating a statistical model. According to benchmark validation, a valid model generates estimates and research conclusions consistent with a known substantive effect. Three types of benchmark validation-(a) benchmark value, (b) benchmark estimate, and (c) benchmark effect-are described and illustrated with examples. Benchmark validation methods are especially useful for statistical models with assumptions that are untestable or very difficult to test. Benchmark effect validation methods were applied to evaluate statistical mediation analysis in eight studies using the established effect that increasing mental imagery improves recall of words. Statistical mediation analysis led to conclusions about mediation that were consistent with established theory that increased imagery leads to increased word recall. Benchmark validation based on established substantive theory is discussed as a general way to investigate characteristics of statistical models and a complement to mathematical proof and statistical simulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

  9. The role of CFD combustion modeling in hydrogen safety management – V: Validation for slow deflagrations in homogeneous hydrogen-air experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathiah, Pratap [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Holler, Tadej, E-mail: tadej.holler@ijs.si [Jozef Stefan Institute (JSI), Jamova cesta 39, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Kljenak, Ivo [Jozef Stefan Institute (JSI), Jamova cesta 39, 1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Komen, Ed [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • Validation of the modeling approach for hydrogen deflagration is presented. • Modeling approach is based on two combustion models implemented in ANSYS Fluent. • Experiments with various initial hydrogen concentrations were used for validation. • The effects of heat transfer mechanisms selection were also investigated. • The grid sensitivity analysis was performed as well. - Abstract: The control of hydrogen in the containment is an important safety issue following rapid oxidation of the uncovered reactor core during a severe accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), because dynamic pressure loads from eventual hydrogen combustion can be detrimental to the structural integrity of the reactor safety systems and the reactor containment. In the set of our previous papers, a CFD-based method to assess the consequence of fast combustion of uniform hydrogen-air mixtures was presented, followed by its validation for hydrogen-air mixtures with diluents and for non-uniform hydrogen-air mixtures. In the present paper, the extension of this model for the slow deflagration regime is presented and validated using the hydrogen deflagration experiments performed in the medium-scale experimental facility THAI. The proposed method is implemented in the CFD software ANSYS Fluent using user defined functions. The paper describes the combustion model and the main results of code validation. It addresses questions regarding turbulence model selection, effect of heat transfer mechanisms, and grid sensitivity, as well as provides insights into the importance of combustion model choice for the slow deflagration regime of hydrogen combustion in medium-scale and large-scale experimental vessels mimicking the NPP containment.

  10. Validation of a model for ranking aquaculture facilities for risk-based disease surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diserens, Nicolas; Falzon, Laura Cristina; von Siebenthal, Beat; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Wahli, Thomas

    2017-09-15

    A semi-quantitative model for risk ranking of aquaculture facilities in Switzerland with regard to the introduction and spread of Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) and Infectious Haematopoietic Necrosis (IHN) was developed in a previous study (Diserens et al., 2013). The objective of the present study was to validate this model using data collected during field visits on aquaculture sites in four Swiss cantons compared to data collected through a questionnaire in the previous study. A discrepancy between the values obtained with the two different methods was found in 32.8% of the parameters, resulting in a significant difference (pranking of Swiss aquaculture facilities according to their risk of getting infected with or spreading of VHS and IHN, as the five facilities that tested positive for these diseases in the last ten years were ranked as medium or high risk. Moreover, because the seven fish farms that were infected with Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis (IPN) during the same period also belonged to the risk categories medium and high, the classification appeared to correlate with the occurrence of this third viral fish disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A low earth orbit dynamic model for the proton anisotropy validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badavi, Francis F.

    2011-11-01

    Ionizing radiation measurements at low earth orbit (LEO) form the ideal tool for the experimental validation of radiation environmental models, nuclear transport code algorithms and nuclear reaction cross sections. Indeed, prior measurements on the space transportation system (STS; shuttle) have provided vital information impacting both the environmental models and the nuclear transport code development by requiring dynamic models of the LEO environment. Previous studies using computer aided design (CAD) models of the international space station (ISS) have demonstrated that the dosimetric prediction for a spacecraft at LEO requires the description of an environmental model with accurate anisotropic as well as dynamic behavior. This paper describes such a model for the trapped proton. The described model is a component of a suite of codes collectively named GEORAD (GEOmagnetic RADiation) which computes cutoff rigidity, trapped proton and trapped electron environments. The web version of GEORAD is named OLTARIS (On-line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space). GEORAD suite is applicable to radiation environment prediction at LEO, medium earth orbit (MEO) and geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) at quiet solar periods. GEORAD interest is in the study of long term effect of the trapped environment and therefore it does not account for any short term external field contribution due to solar activity. With the concentration of the paper on the LEO protons only, the paper presents the validation of the trapped proton model within GEORAD with reported measurements from the compact environment anomaly sensor (CEASE) science instrument package, flown onboard the tri-service experiment-5 (TSX-5) satellite during the period of June 2000 to July 2006. The spin stabilized satellite was flown in a 410 × 1710 km, 69° inclination elliptical orbit, allowing it to be exposed to a broad range of the LEO regime. The paper puts particular emphasize on the validation of the

  12. Elasto-dynamic analysis of a gear pump-Part III: Experimental validation procedure and model extension to helical gears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucchi, E.; Dalpiaz, G.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns external gear pumps for automotive applications, which operate at high speed and low pressure. In previous works of the authors (Part I and II, [1,2]), a non-linear lumped-parameter kineto-elastodynamic model for the prediction of the dynamic behaviour of external gear pumps was presented. It takes into account the most important phenomena involved in the operation of this kind of machine. The two main sources of noise and vibration are considered: pressure pulsation and gear meshing. The model has been used in order to foresee the influence of working conditions and design modifications on vibration generation. The model's experimental validation is a difficult task. Thus, Part III proposes a novel methodology for the validation carried out by the comparison of simulations and experimental results concerning forces and moments: it deals with the external and inertial components acting on the gears, estimated by the model, and the reactions and inertial components on the pump casing and the test plate, obtained by measurements. The validation is carried out comparing the level of the time synchronous average in the time domain and the waterfall maps in the frequency domain, with particular attention to identify system resonances. The validation results are satisfactory globally, but discrepancies are still present. Moreover, the assessed model has been properly modified for the application to a new virtual pump prototype with helical gears in order to foresee gear accelerations and dynamic forces. Part IV is focused on improvements in the modelling and analysis of the phenomena bound to the pressure evolution around the gears in order to achieve results closer to the measured values. As a matter of fact, the simulation results have shown that a variable meshing stiffness has a notable contribution on the dynamic behaviour of the pump but this is not as important as the pressure phenomena. As a consequence, the original model was modified with the

  13. Validation of Generic Models for Variable Speed Operation Wind Turbines Following the Recent Guidelines Issued by IEC 61400-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Honrubia-Escribano

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Considerable efforts are currently being made by several international working groups focused on the development of generic, also known as simplified or standard, wind turbine models for power system stability studies. In this sense, the first edition of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC 61400-27-1, which defines generic dynamic simulation models for wind turbines, was published in February 2015. Nevertheless, the correlations of the IEC generic models with respect to specific wind turbine manufacturer models are required by the wind power industry to validate the accuracy and corresponding usability of these standard models. The present work conducts the validation of the two topologies of variable speed wind turbines that present not only the largest market share, but also the most technological advances. Specifically, the doubly-fed induction machine and the full-scale converter (FSC topology are modeled based on the IEC 61400-27-1 guidelines. The models are simulated for a wide range of voltage dips with different characteristics and wind turbine operating conditions. The simulated response of the IEC generic model is compared to the corresponding simplified model of a wind turbine manufacturer, showing a good correlation in most cases. Validation error sources are analyzed in detail, as well. In addition, this paper reviews in detail the previous work done in this field. Results suggest that wind turbine manufacturers are able to adjust the IEC generic models to represent the behavior of their specific wind turbines for power system stability analysis.

  14. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  15. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  16. Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, S. B.; Stenseng, Lars; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction...... models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland shows a clear layering. The observed layers from the radar data can be used as an in-situ validation...... correction relative to the changes in the elevation of the surface observed with remote sensing altimetry? What model time resolution is necessary to resolved the observed layering? What model refinements are necessary to give better estimates of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from...

  17. Some guidance on preparing validation plans for the DART Full System Models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, Genetha Anne; Hough, Patricia Diane; Hills, Richard Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM)

    2009-03-01

    Planning is an important part of computational model verification and validation (V&V) and the requisite planning document is vital for effectively executing the plan. The document provides a means of communicating intent to the typically large group of people, from program management to analysts to test engineers, who must work together to complete the validation activities. This report provides guidelines for writing a validation plan. It describes the components of such a plan and includes important references and resources. While the initial target audience is the DART Full System Model teams in the nuclear weapons program, the guidelines are generally applicable to other modeling efforts. Our goal in writing this document is to provide a framework for consistency in validation plans across weapon systems, different types of models, and different scenarios. Specific details contained in any given validation plan will vary according to application requirements and available resources.

  18. Studying Validity of Single-Fluid Model in Inertial Confinement Fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Jian-Fa; Fan Zheng-Feng; Dai Zhen-Sheng; Ye Wen-Hua; Pei Wen-Bing; Zhu Shao-Ping

    2014-01-01

    The validity of single-fluid model in inertial confinement fusion simulations is studied by comparing the results of the multi- and single-fluid models. The multi-fluid model includes the effects of collision and interpenetration between fluid species. By simulating the collision of fluid species, steady-state shock propagation into the thin DT gas and expansion of hohlraum Au wall heated by lasers, the results show that the validity of single-fluid model is strongly dependent on the ratio of the characteristic length of the simulated system to the particle mean free path. When the characteristic length L is one order larger than the mean free path λ, the single-fluid model's results are found to be in good agreement with the multi-fluid model's simulations, and the modeling of single-fluid remains valid. If the value of L/λ is lower than 10, the interpenetration between fluid species is significant, and the single-fluid simulations show some unphysical results; while the multi-fluid model can describe well the interpenetration and mix phenomena, and give more reasonable results. (physics of gases, plasmas, and electric discharges)

  19. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

  20. Validation of the kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plant cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lietzke, M.H.

    1977-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present a validation of a previously described kinetic model which was developed to predict the composition of chlorinated fresh water discharged from power plant cooling systems. The model was programmed in two versions: as a stand-alone program and as a part of a unified transport model developed from consistent mathematical models to simulate the dispersion of heated water and radioisotopic and chemical effluents from power plant discharges. The results of testing the model using analytical data taken during operation of the once-through cooling system of the Quad Cities Nuclear Station are described. Calculations are also presented on the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station which uses cooling towers

  1. One-equation modeling and validation of dielectric barrier discharge plasma actuator thrust

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Jae-San; Han, Jae-Hung

    2014-01-01

    Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma actuators with an asymmetric electrode configuration can generate a wall-bounded jet without mechanical moving parts, which require considerable modifications of existing aeronautical objects and which incur high maintenance costs. Despite this potential, one factor preventing the wider application of such actuators is the lack of a reliable actuator model. It is difficult to develop such a model because calculating the ion-electric field and fluid interaction consume a high amount calculation effort during the numerical analysis. Thus, the authors proposed a semi-empirical model which predicted the thrust of plasma actuators with a simple equation. It gave a numeric thrust value, and we implemented the value on a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver to describe the two-dimensional flow field induced by the actuator. However, the model had a narrow validation range, depending on the empirical formula, and it did not fully consider environment variables. This study presents an improved model by replacing the empirical formulae in the previous model with physical equations that take into account physical phenomena and environmental variables. During this process, additional operation parameters, such as pressure, temperature and ac waveforms, are newly taken to predict the thrust performance of the actuators with a wider range of existing parameters, the thickness of the dielectric barrier, the exposed electrode, the dielectric constant, the ac frequency and the voltage amplitude. Thrust prediction curves from the model are compared to those of earlier experimental results, showing that the average error is less than 5% for more than one hundred instances of data. As in the earlier work, the predicted thrust value is implemented on a CFD solver, and two-dimensional wall-jet velocity profiles induced by the actuator are compared to the previous experimental results. (paper)

  2. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  3. Site characterization and validation - stress field in the SCV block and around the validation drift. Stage 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKinnon, S.; Carr, P.

    1990-04-01

    The results of previous stress measurement and stress modelling programmes carried out in the vicinity of the SCV block have been reviewed. Collectively, the results show that the stress field is influenced by the presence of the old mine excavations, and the measurements can be divided into near-field and far-field locations. The near-field measurements denote the extent and magnitude of the mining induced stresses while the far-field measurements reflect virgin conditions. Because of large scatter in the previous data, additional stress measurements were carried out using the CSIRO hollow inclusion cell. Combining all measurements, an estimate of the virgin stress tensor was made. Three-dimensional stress modelling was carried out using the program BEFE to determine the state of stress in the SCV block, and around the validation drift. This modelling showed that most of the SCV block is in a virgin stress field. Stresses acting on the fracture zones in the SCV block will be due only to the virgin stress field and induced stresses from the validation drift. (orig.)

  4. Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    . There are however many advantages that could be harvested from such knowledge like size, cost and efficiency improvements. In this paper a recently proposed power requirement model for active loudspeakers is experimentally validated and the model is expanded to include the closed and vented type enclosures...

  5. Donabedian's structure-process-outcome quality of care model: Validation in an integrated trauma system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lynne; Lavoie, André; Bourgeois, Gilles; Lapointe, Jean

    2015-06-01

    According to Donabedian's health care quality model, improvements in the structure of care should lead to improvements in clinical processes that should in turn improve patient outcome. This model has been widely adopted by the trauma community but has not yet been validated in a trauma system. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of an integrated trauma system in terms of structure, process, and outcome and evaluate the correlation between quality domains. Quality of care was evaluated for patients treated in a Canadian provincial trauma system (2005-2010; 57 centers, n = 63,971) using quality indicators (QIs) developed and validated previously. Structural performance was measured by transposing on-site accreditation visit reports onto an evaluation grid according to American College of Surgeons criteria. The composite process QI was calculated as the average sum of proportions of conformity to 15 process QIs derived from literature review and expert opinion. Outcome performance was measured using risk-adjusted rates of mortality, complications, and readmission as well as hospital length of stay (LOS). Correlation was assessed with Pearson's correlation coefficients. Statistically significant correlations were observed between structure and process QIs (r = 0.33), and process and outcome QIs (r = -0.33 for readmission, r = -0.27 for LOS). Significant positive correlations were also observed between outcome QIs (r = 0.37 for mortality-readmission; r = 0.39 for mortality-LOS and readmission-LOS; r = 0.45 for mortality-complications; r = 0.34 for readmission-complications; 0.63 for complications-LOS). Significant correlations between quality domains observed in this study suggest that Donabedian's structure-process-outcome model is a valid model for evaluating trauma care. Trauma centers that perform well in terms of structure also tend to perform well in terms of clinical processes, which in turn has a favorable influence on patient outcomes

  6. Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

    2016-01-01

    The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

  7. Validation for global solar wind prediction using Ulysses comparison: Multiple coronal and heliospheric models installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

    2016-08-01

    The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

  8. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2017-07-14

    Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) on the estimated model discrimination (c-index) and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots) in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and should not be ignored. When treatment use is random, treated

  9. Validation of dispersion model of RTARC-DSS based on ''KIT'' field experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this study is to present the performance of the Gaussian dispersion model RTARC-DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) at the 'Kit' field experiments. The Model Validation Kit is a collection of three experimental data sets from Kincaid, Copenhagen, Lillestrom and supplementary Indianopolis experimental campaigns accompanied by software for model evaluation. The validation of the model has been performed on the basis of the maximum arc-wise concentrations using the Bootstrap resampling procedure the variation of the model residuals. Validation was performed for the short-range distances (about 1 - 10 km, maximum for Kincaid data set - 50 km from source). Model evaluation procedure and amount of relative over- or under-prediction are discussed and compared with the model. (author)

  10. Development and demonstration of a validation methodology for vehicle lateral dynamics simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutluay, Emir

    2013-02-01

    In this thesis a validation methodology to be used in the assessment of the vehicle dynamics simulation models is presented. Simulation of vehicle dynamics is used to estimate the dynamic responses of existing or proposed vehicles and has a wide array of applications in the development of vehicle technologies. Although simulation environments, measurement tools and mathematical theories on vehicle dynamics are well established, the methodical link between the experimental test data and validity analysis of the simulation model is still lacking. The developed validation paradigm has a top-down approach to the problem. It is ascertained that vehicle dynamics simulation models can only be validated using test maneuvers although they are aimed for real world maneuvers. Test maneuvers are determined according to the requirements of the real event at the start of the model development project and data handling techniques, validation metrics and criteria are declared for each of the selected maneuvers. If the simulation results satisfy these criteria, then the simulation is deemed ''not invalid''. If the simulation model fails to meet the criteria, the model is deemed invalid, and model iteration should be performed. The results are analyzed to determine if the results indicate a modeling error or a modeling inadequacy; and if a conditional validity in terms of system variables can be defined. Three test cases are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. The developed methodology successfully identified the shortcomings of the tested simulation model, and defined the limits of application. The tested simulation model is found to be acceptable but valid only in a certain dynamical range. Several insights for the deficiencies of the model are reported in the analysis but the iteration step of the methodology is not demonstrated. Utilizing the proposed methodology will help to achieve more time and cost efficient simulation projects with

  11. Validation of Metrics as Error Predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendling, Jan

    In this chapter, we test the validity of metrics that were defined in the previous chapter for predicting errors in EPC business process models. In Section 5.1, we provide an overview of how the analysis data is generated. Section 5.2 describes the sample of EPCs from practice that we use for the analysis. Here we discuss a disaggregation by the EPC model group and by error as well as a correlation analysis between metrics and error. Based on this sample, we calculate a logistic regression model for predicting error probability with the metrics as input variables in Section 5.3. In Section 5.4, we then test the regression function for an independent sample of EPC models from textbooks as a cross-validation. Section 5.5 summarizes the findings.

  12. The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Borri, Dino

    2014-01-01

    Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws. - Highlights: • Validation of evacuation models is investigated. • Quantitative evaluation of behavioural uncertainty is performed. • A validation procedure is presented through an evacuation case study

  13. Multisite external validation of a risk prediction model for the diagnosis of blood stream infections in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbenshade, Adam J; Zhao, Zhiguo; Aftandilian, Catherine; Saab, Raya; Wattier, Rachel L; Beauchemin, Melissa; Miller, Tamara P; Wilkes, Jennifer J; Kelly, Michael J; Fernbach, Alison; Jeng, Michael; Schwartz, Cindy L; Dvorak, Christopher C; Shyr, Yu; Moons, Karl G M; Sulis, Maria-Luisa; Friedman, Debra L

    2017-10-01

    Pediatric oncology patients are at an increased risk of invasive bacterial infection due to immunosuppression. The risk of such infection in the absence of severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count ≥ 500/μL) is not well established and a validated prediction model for blood stream infection (BSI) risk offers clinical usefulness. A 6-site retrospective external validation was conducted using a previously published risk prediction model for BSI in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia: the Esbenshade/Vanderbilt (EsVan) model. A reduced model (EsVan2) excluding 2 less clinically reliable variables also was created using the initial EsVan model derivative cohort, and was validated using all 5 external validation cohorts. One data set was used only in sensitivity analyses due to missing some variables. From the 5 primary data sets, there were a total of 1197 febrile episodes and 76 episodes of bacteremia. The overall C statistic for predicting bacteremia was 0.695, with a calibration slope of 0.50 for the original model and a calibration slope of 1.0 when recalibration was applied to the model. The model performed better in predicting high-risk bacteremia (gram-negative or Staphylococcus aureus infection) versus BSI alone, with a C statistic of 0.801 and a calibration slope of 0.65. The EsVan2 model outperformed the EsVan model across data sets with a C statistic of 0.733 for predicting BSI and a C statistic of 0.841 for high-risk BSI. The results of this external validation demonstrated that the EsVan and EsVan2 models are able to predict BSI across multiple performance sites and, once validated and implemented prospectively, could assist in decision making in clinical practice. Cancer 2017;123:3781-3790. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  14. Polarographic validation of chemical speciation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffield, J.R.; Jarratt, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    It is well established that the chemical speciation of an element in a given matrix, or system of matrices, is of fundamental importance in controlling the transport behaviour of the element. Therefore, to accurately understand and predict the transport of elements and compounds in the environment it is a requirement that both the identities and concentrations of trace element physico-chemical forms can be ascertained. These twin requirements present the analytical scientist with considerable challenges given the labile equilibria, the range of time scales (from nanoseconds to years) and the range of concentrations (ultra-trace to macro) that may be involved. As a result of this analytical variability, chemical equilibrium modelling has become recognised as an important predictive tool in chemical speciation analysis. However, this technique requires firm underpinning by the use of complementary experimental techniques for the validation of the predictions made. The work reported here has been undertaken with the primary aim of investigating possible methodologies that can be used for the validation of chemical speciation models. However, in approaching this aim, direct chemical speciation analyses have been made in their own right. Results will be reported and analysed for the iron(II)/iron(III)-citrate proton system (pH 2 to 10; total [Fe] = 3 mmol dm -3 ; total [citrate 3- ] 10 mmol dm -3 ) in which equilibrium constants have been determined using glass electrode potentiometry, speciation is predicted using the PHREEQE computer code, and validation of predictions is achieved by determination of iron complexation and redox state with associated concentrations. (authors)

  15. Systematic validation of non-equilibrium thermochemical models using Bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Miki, Kenji

    2015-10-01

    © 2015 Elsevier Inc. The validation process proposed by Babuška et al. [1] is applied to thermochemical models describing post-shock flow conditions. In this validation approach, experimental data is involved only in the calibration of the models, and the decision process is based on quantities of interest (QoIs) predicted on scenarios that are not necessarily amenable experimentally. Moreover, uncertainties present in the experimental data, as well as those resulting from an incomplete physical model description, are propagated to the QoIs. We investigate four commonly used thermochemical models: a one-temperature model (which assumes thermal equilibrium among all inner modes), and two-temperature models developed by Macheret et al. [2], Marrone and Treanor [3], and Park [4]. Up to 16 uncertain parameters are estimated using Bayesian updating based on the latest absolute volumetric radiance data collected at the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) installed inside the NASA Ames Research Center. Following the solution of the inverse problems, the forward problems are solved in order to predict the radiative heat flux, QoI, and examine the validity of these models. Our results show that all four models are invalid, but for different reasons: the one-temperature model simply fails to reproduce the data while the two-temperature models exhibit unacceptably large uncertainties in the QoI predictions.

  16. Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

  17. Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

  18. Validation Hydrodynamic Models of Three Topological Models of Secondary Facultative Ponds

    OpenAIRE

    Aponte-Reyes Alxander

    2014-01-01

    A methodology was developed to analyze boundary conditions, the size of the mesh and the turbulence of a mathematical model of CFD, which could explain hydrodynamic behavior on facultative stabilization ponds, FSP, built to pilot scale: conventional pond, CP, baffled pond, BP, and baffled-mesh pond, BMP. Models dispersion studies were performed in field for validation, taking samples into and out of the FSP, the information was used to carry out CFD model simulations of the three topologies. ...

  19. Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two loudspeakers, one for the target sound source and the other for the interfering sound source. Recently, the model was successfully validated in a complex personal sound-zone system with speech-on-music stimuli. Second round of validations were...... conducted by physically altering the sound-zone system and running a set of new listening experiments utilizing two sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. Preliminary results show...

  20. Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-09-01

    The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

  1. ADMS-AIRPORT: MODEL INTER-COMPARISIONS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    OpenAIRE

    Carruthers, David; McHugh, Christine; Church, Stephanie; Jackson, Mark; Williams, Matt; Price, Catheryn; Lad, Chetan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: The functionality of ADMS-Airport and details of its use in the Model Inter-comparison Study of the Project for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow Airport (PSDH) have previously been presented, Carruthers et al (2007). A distinguishing feature is the treatment of jet engine emissions as moving jet sources rather than averaging these emissions into volume sources as is the case in some other models. In this presentation two further studies are presented which each contribu...

  2. Neuropathological assessment and validation of mouse models for Alzheimer's disease: applying NIA-AA guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Dirk Keene

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dozens of transgenic mouse models, generally based on mutations associated with familial Alzheimer's disease (AD, have been developed, in part, for preclinical testing of candidate AD therapies. However, none of these models has successfully predicted the clinical efficacy of drugs for treating AD patients. Therefore, development of more translationally relevant AD mouse models remains a critical unmet need in the field. A concept not previously implemented in AD preclinical drug testing is the use of mouse lines that have been validated for neuropathological features of human AD. Current thinking suggests that amyloid plaque and neurofibrillary tangle deposition is an essential component for accurate modeling of AD. Therefore, the AD translational paradigm would require pathologic Aβ and tau deposition, a disease-relevant distribution of plaques and tangles, and a pattern of disease progression of Aβ and tau isoforms similar to the neuropathological features found in the brains of AD patients. Additional parameters useful to evaluate parallels between AD and animal models would include 1 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF AD biomarker changes with reduced Aβ and increased phospho-tau/tau; 2 structural and functional neuroimaging patterns including MRI hippocampal atrophy, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG, and amyloid/tau PET alterations in activity and/or patterns of pathologic peptide deposition and distribution; and 3 cognitive impairment with emphasis on spatial learning and memory to distinguish presymptomatic and symptomatic mice at specific ages. A validated AD mouse model for drug testing would likely show tau-related neurofibrillary degeneration following Aβ deposition and demonstrate changes in pathology, CSF analysis, and neuroimaging that mirror human AD. Development of the ideal model would revolutionize the ability to establish the translational value of AD mouse models and serve as a platform for discussions about national phenotyping guidelines

  3. Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romin Pajouheshnia

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and

  4. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  5. Validation of a CFD analysis model for the calculation of CANDU6 moderator temperature distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Churl; Rhee, Bo Wook; Min, Byung Joo

    2001-01-01

    A validation of a 3D CFD model for predicting local subcooling of moderator in the vicinity of calandria tubes in a CANDU reactor is performed. The small scale moderator experiments performed at Sheridan Park Experimental Laboratory (SPEL) in Ontario, Canada is used for the validation. Also a comparison is made between previous DFD analyses based on 2DMOTH and PHOENICS, and the current model analysis for the same SPEL experiment. For the current model, a set of grid structures for the same geometry as the experimental test section is generated and the momentum, heat and continuity equations are solved by CFX-4.3, a CFD code developed by AEA technology. The matrix of calandria tubes is simplified by the porous media approach. The standard κ-ε turbulence model associated with logarithmic wall treatment and SIMPLEC algorithm on the body fitted grid are used and buoyancy effects are accounted for by the Boussinesq approximation. For the test conditions simulated in this study, the flow pattern identified is a buoyancy-dominated flow, which is generated by the interaction between the dominant buoyancy force by heating and inertial momentum forces by the inlet jets. As a result, the current CFD moderator analysis model predicts the moderator temperature reasonably, and the maximum error against the experimental data is kept at less than 2.0 .deg. C over the whole domain. The simulated velocity field matches with the visualization of SPEL experiments quite well

  6. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corapcioglu, M.Y.; Sung, K.; Rhykerd, R.L.; Munster, C.; Drew, M.

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg -1 ] TNT, PBB and chrysene. Vegetated and unvegetated treatments were conducted in triplicate to obtain data regarding contaminant concentrations in the soil, plant roots, root distribution, microbial activity, plant water use and soil moisture. When given the parameters of time and depth, the model successfully predicted contaminant concentrations under actual field conditions. Other model parameters are currently being evaluated. 15 refs., 2 figs

  7. Validation of a mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle for cows with different estrous cycle characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, H M T; Butler, S T; Stötzel, C; Te Pas, M F W; Veerkamp, R F; Woelders, H

    2017-11-01

    A recently developed mechanistic mathematical model of the bovine estrous cycle was parameterized to fit empirical data sets collected during one estrous cycle of 31 individual cows, with the main objective to further validate the model. The a priori criteria for validation were (1) the resulting model can simulate the measured data correctly (i.e. goodness of fit), and (2) this is achieved without needing extreme, probably non-physiological parameter values. We used a least squares optimization procedure to identify parameter configurations for the mathematical model to fit the empirical in vivo measurements of follicle and corpus luteum sizes, and the plasma concentrations of progesterone, estradiol, FSH and LH for each cow. The model was capable of accommodating normal variation in estrous cycle characteristics of individual cows. With the parameter sets estimated for the individual cows, the model behavior changed for 21 cows, with improved fit of the simulated output curves for 18 of these 21 cows. Moreover, the number of follicular waves was predicted correctly for 18 of the 25 two-wave and three-wave cows, without extreme parameter value changes. Estimation of specific parameters confirmed results of previous model simulations indicating that parameters involved in luteolytic signaling are very important for regulation of general estrous cycle characteristics, and are likely responsible for differences in estrous cycle characteristics between cows.

  8. Making Validated Educational Models Central in Preschool Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweinhart, Lawrence J.

    This paper presents some ideas to preschool educators and policy makers about how to make validated educational models central in standards for preschool education and care programs that are available to all 3- and 4-year-olds. Defining an educational model as a coherent body of program practices, curriculum content, program and child, and teacher…

  9. Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

    2013-01-01

    Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

  10. Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

    2013-04-01

    Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

  11. Validation of the newborn larynx modeling with aerodynamical experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicollas, R; Giordano, J; Garrel, R; Medale, M; Caminat, P; Giovanni, A; Ouaknine, M; Triglia, J M

    2009-06-01

    Many authors have studied adult's larynx modelization, but the mechanisms of newborn's voice production have very rarely been investigated. After validating a numerical model with acoustic data, studies were performed on larynges of human fetuses in order to validate this model with aerodynamical experiments. Anatomical measurements were performed and a simplified numerical model was built using Fluent((R)) with the vocal folds in phonatory position. The results obtained are in good agreement with those obtained by laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and high-frame rate particle image velocimetry (HFR-PIV), on an experimental bench with excised human fetus larynges. It appears that computing with first cry physiological parameters leads to a model which is close to those obtained in experiments with real organs.

  12. Validation od computational model ALDERSON/EGSnrc for chest radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muniz, Bianca C.; Santos, André L. dos; Menezes, Claudio J.M.

    2017-01-01

    To perform dose studies in situations of exposure to radiation, without exposing individuals, the numerical dosimetry uses Computational Exposure Models (ECM). Composed essentially by a radioactive source simulator algorithm, a voxel phantom representing the human anatomy and a Monte Carlo code, the ECMs must be validated to determine the reliability of the physical array representation. The objective of this work is to validate the ALDERSON / EGSnrc MCE by through comparisons between the experimental measurements obtained with the ionization chamber and virtual simulations using Monte Carlo Method to determine the ratio of the input and output radiation dose. Preliminary results of these comparisons showed that the ECM reproduced the results of the experimental measurements performed with the physical phantom with a relative error of less than 10%, validating the use of this model for simulations of chest radiographs and estimates of radiation doses in tissues in the irradiated structures

  13. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  14. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  15. Mathematical model formulation and validation of water and solute transport in whole hamster pancreatic islets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, James D; Benson, Charles T; Critser, John K

    2014-08-01

    Optimization of cryopreservation protocols for cells and tissues requires accurate models of heat and mass transport. Model selection often depends on the configuration of the tissue. Here, a mathematical and conceptual model of water and solute transport for whole hamster pancreatic islets has been developed and experimentally validated incorporating fundamental biophysical data from previous studies on individual hamster islet cells while retaining whole-islet structural information. It describes coupled transport of water and solutes through the islet by three methods: intracellularly, intercellularly, and in combination. In particular we use domain decomposition techniques to couple a transmembrane flux model with an interstitial mass transfer model. The only significant undetermined variable is the cellular surface area which is in contact with the intercellularly transported solutes, Ais. The model was validated and Ais determined using a 3×3 factorial experimental design blocked for experimental day. Whole islet physical experiments were compared with model predictions at three temperatures, three perfusing solutions, and three islet size groups. A mean of 4.4 islets were compared at each of the 27 experimental conditions and found to correlate with a coefficient of determination of 0.87±0.06 (mean ± SD). Only the treatment variable of perfusing solution was found to be significant (p<0.05). We have devised a model that retains much of the intrinsic geometric configuration of the system, and thus fewer laboratory experiments are needed to determine model parameters and thus to develop new optimized cryopreservation protocols. Additionally, extensions to ovarian follicles and other concentric tissue structures may be made. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    In this paper, we seek to present a hybrid method for Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ... This model generally states the numerical value of knowledge .... procedures found in the field of software engineering should be ...

  17. How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.

  18. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E

    2017-04-01

    In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

  19. Validation of nuclear models used in space radiation shielding applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.

    2013-01-01

    A program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as these models are developed over time. In this work, simple validation metrics applicable to testing both model accuracy and consistency with experimental data are developed. The developed metrics treat experimental measurement uncertainty as an interval and are therefore applicable to cases in which epistemic uncertainty dominates the experimental data. To demonstrate the applicability of the metrics, nuclear physics models used by NASA for space radiation shielding applications are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by examining subsets of the model parameter space.

  20. Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuiver, Martijn M; Kampshoff, Caroline S; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J M; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M

    2017-11-01

    To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo 2peak ) and peak power output (W peak ). Cross-sectional study. Multicenter. Cancer survivors (N=283) in 2 randomized controlled exercise trials. Not applicable. Prediction model accuracy was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and limits of agreement (LOA). Multiple linear regression was used for model extension. Clinical performance was judged by the percentage of accurate endurance exercise prescriptions. ICCs of SRT-predicted Vo 2peak and W peak with these values as obtained by the cardiopulmonary exercise test were .61 and .73, respectively, using the previously published prediction models. 95% LOA were ±705mL/min with a bias of 190mL/min for Vo 2peak and ±59W with a bias of 5W for W peak . Modest improvements were obtained by adding body weight and sex to the regression equation for the prediction of Vo 2peak (ICC, .73; 95% LOA, ±608mL/min) and by adding age, height, and sex for the prediction of W peak (ICC, .81; 95% LOA, ±48W). Accuracy of endurance exercise prescription improved from 57% accurate prescriptions to 68% accurate prescriptions with the new prediction model for W peak . Predictions of Vo 2peak and W peak based on the SRT are adequate at the group level, but insufficiently accurate in individual patients. The multivariable prediction model for W peak can be used cautiously (eg, supplemented with a Borg score) to aid endurance exercise prescription. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  2. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  3. Validation of Inhibition Effect in the Cellulose Hydrolysis: a Dynamic Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Tsai, Chien-Tai; Meyer, Anne S.

    2011-01-01

    Enzymatic hydrolysis is one of the main steps in the processing of bioethanol from lignocellulosic raw materials. However, complete understanding of the underlying phenomena is still under development. Hence, this study has focused on validation of the inhibition effects in the cellulosic biomass...... for parameter estimation (calibration) and validation purposes. The model predictions using calibrated parameters have shown good agreement with the validation data sets, which provides credibility to the model structure and the parameter values....

  4. A process improvement model for software verification and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John; Sabolish, George

    1994-01-01

    We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and space station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.

  5. Thermal hydraulic model validation for HOR mixed core fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibcus, H.P.M.; Vries, J.W. de; Leege, P.F.A. de

    1997-01-01

    A thermal-hydraulic core management model has been developed for the Hoger Onderwijsreactor (HOR), a 2 MW pool-type university research reactor. The model was adopted for safety analysis purposes in the framework of HEU/LEU core conversion studies. It is applied in the thermal-hydraulic computer code SHORT (Steady-state HOR Thermal-hydraulics) which is presently in use in designing core configurations and for in-core fuel management. An elaborate measurement program was performed for establishing the core hydraulic characteristics for a variety of conditions. The hydraulic data were obtained with a dummy fuel element with special equipment allowing a.o. direct measurement of the true core flow rate. Using these data the thermal-hydraulic model was validated experimentally. The model, experimental tests, and model validation are discussed. (author)

  6. Validated TRNSYS Model for Solar Assisted Space Heating System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, Nedal

    2014-01-01

    The present study involves a validated TRNSYS model for solar assisted space heating system as applied to a residential building in Jordan using new detailed radiation models of the TRNSYS 17.1 and geometric building model Trnsys3d for the Google SketchUp 3D drawing program. The annual heating load for a building (Solar House) which is located at the Royal ScientiFIc Society (RS5) in Jordan is estimated under climatological conditions of Amman. The aim of this Paper is to compare measured thermal performance of the Solar House with that modeled using TRNSYS. The results showed that the annual measured space heating load for the building was 6,188 kWh while the heati.ng load for the modeled building was 6,391 kWh. Moreover, the measured solar fraction for the solar system was 50% while the modeled solar fraction was 55%. A comparison of modeled and measured data resulted in percentage mean absolute errors for solar energy for space heating, auxiliary heating and solar fraction of 13%, 7% and 10%, respectively. The validated model will be useful for long-term performance simulation under different weather and operating conditions.(author)

  7. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  8. Validation of a two-fluid model used for the simulation of dense fluidized beds; Validation d`un modele a deux fluides applique a la simulation des lits fluidises denses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boelle, A.

    1997-02-17

    A two-fluid model applied to the simulation of gas-solid dense fluidized beds is validated on micro scale and on macro scale. Phase coupling is carried out in the momentum and energy transport equation of both phases. The modeling is built on the kinetic theory of granular media in which the gas action has been taken into account in order to get correct expressions of transport coefficients. A description of hydrodynamic interactions between particles in high Stokes number flow is also incorporated in the model. The micro scale validation uses Lagrangian numerical simulations viewed as numerical experiments. The first validation case refers to a gas particle simple shear flow. It allows to validate the competition between two dissipation mechanisms: drag and particle collisions. The second validation case is concerted with sedimenting particles in high Stokes number flow. It allows to validate our approach of hydrodynamic interactions. This last case had led us to develop an original Lagrangian simulation with a two-way coupling between the fluid and the particles. The macro scale validation uses the results of Eulerian simulations of dense fluidized bed. Bed height, particles circulation and spontaneous created bubbles characteristics are studied and compared to experimental measurement, both looking at physical and numerical parameters. (author) 159 refs.

  9. Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2000-01-01

    This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

  10. Gap Conductance model Validation in the TASS/SMR-S code using MARS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang Jun; Yang, Soo Hyung; Chung, Young Jong; Lee, Won Jae

    2010-01-01

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has been developing the TASS/SMR-S (Transient and Setpoint Simulation/Small and Medium Reactor) code, which is a thermal hydraulic code for the safety analysis of the advanced integral reactor. An appropriate work to validate the applicability of the thermal hydraulic models within the code should be demanded. Among the models, the gap conductance model which is describes the thermal gap conductivity between fuel and cladding was validated through the comparison with MARS code. The validation of the gap conductance model was performed by evaluating the variation of the gap temperature and gap width as the changed with the power fraction. In this paper, a brief description of the gap conductance model in the TASS/SMR-S code is presented. In addition, calculated results to validate the gap conductance model are demonstrated by comparing with the results of the MARS code with the test case

  11. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  12. Validation Assessment of a Glass-to-Metal Seal Finite-Element Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Buchheit, Thomas E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Emery, John M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Newton, Clay S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brown, Arthur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Sealing glasses are ubiquitous in high pressure and temperature engineering applications, such as hermetic feed-through electrical connectors. A common connector technology are glass-to-metal seals where a metal shell compresses a sealing glass to create a hermetic seal. Though finite-element analysis has been used to understand and design glass-to-metal seals for many years, there has been little validation of these models. An indentation technique was employed to measure the residual stress on the surface of a simple glass-to-metal seal. Recently developed rate- dependent material models of both Schott 8061 and 304L VAR stainless steel have been applied to a finite-element model of the simple glass-to-metal seal. Model predictions of residual stress based on the evolution of material models are shown. These model predictions are compared to measured data. Validity of the finite- element predictions is discussed. It will be shown that the finite-element model of the glass-to-metal seal accurately predicts the mean residual stress in the glass near the glass-to-metal interface and is valid for this quantity of interest.

  13. Validation of an employee satisfaction model: A structural equation model approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ophillia Ledimo; Nico Martins

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate an employee satisfaction model and to determine the relationships between the different dimensions of the concept, using the structural equation modelling approach (SEM). A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was used to collect data from a random sample of (n=759) permanent employees of a parastatal organisation. Data was collected using the Employee Satisfaction Survey (ESS) to measure employee satisfaction dimensions. Following the steps of ...

  14. Assessment model validity document - HYDRASTAR. A stochastic continuum program for groundwater flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gylling, B. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Eriksson, Lars [Equa Simulation AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)

    2001-12-01

    The prevailing document addresses validation of the stochastic continuum model HYDRASTAR designed for Monte Carlo simulations of groundwater flow in fractured rocks. Here, validation is defined as a process to demonstrate that a model concept is fit for its purpose. Preferably, the validation is carried out by comparison of model predictions with independent field observations and experimental measurements. In addition, other sources can also be used to confirm that the model concept gives acceptable results. One method is to compare results with the ones achieved using other model concepts for the same set of input data. Another method is to compare model results with analytical solutions. The model concept HYDRASTAR has been used in several studies including performance assessments of hypothetical repositories for spent nuclear fuel. In the performance assessments, the main tasks for HYDRASTAR have been to calculate groundwater travel time distributions, repository flux distributions, path lines and their exit locations. The results have then been used by other model concepts to calculate the near field release and far field transport. The aim and framework for the validation process includes describing the applicability of the model concept for its purpose in order to build confidence in the concept. Preferably, this is made by comparisons of simulation results with the corresponding field experiments or field measurements. Here, two comparisons with experimental results are reported. In both cases the agreement was reasonably fair. In the broader and more general context of the validation process, HYDRASTAR results have been compared with other models and analytical solutions. Commonly, the approximation calculations agree well with the medians of model ensemble results. Additional indications that HYDRASTAR is suitable for its purpose were obtained from the comparisons with results from other model concepts. Several verification studies have been made for

  15. Evaluation factors for verification and validation of low-level waste disposal site models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moran, M.S.; Mezga, L.J.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to identify general evaluation factors to be used to verify and validate LLW disposal site performance models in order to assess their site-specific applicability and to determine their accuracy and sensitivity. It is intended that the information contained in this paper be employed by model users involved with LLW site performance model verification and validation. It should not be construed as providing protocols, but rather as providing a framework for the preparation of specific protocols or procedures. A brief description of each evaluation factor is provided. The factors have been categorized according to recommended use during either the model verification or the model validation process. The general responsibilities of the developer and user are provided. In many cases it is difficult to separate the responsibilities of the developer and user, but the user is ultimately accountable for both verification and validation processes. 4 refs

  16. Validation of a CFD Analysis Model for Predicting CANDU-6 Moderator Temperature Against SPEL Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Churl Yoon; Bo Wook Rhee; Byung-Joo Min

    2002-01-01

    A validation of a 3D CFD model for predicting local subcooling of the moderator in the vicinity of calandria tubes in a CANDU-6 reactor is performed. The small scale moderator experiments performed at Sheridan Park Experimental Laboratory (SPEL) in Ontario, Canada[1] is used for the validation. Also a comparison is made between previous CFD analyses based on 2DMOTH and PHOENICS, and the current analysis for the same SPEL experiment. For the current model, a set of grid structures for the same geometry as the experimental test section is generated and the momentum, heat and continuity equations are solved by CFX-4.3, a CFD code developed by AEA technology. The matrix of calandria tubes is simplified by the porous media approach. The standard k-ε turbulence model associated with logarithmic wall treatment and SIMPLEC algorithm on the body fitted grid are used. Buoyancy effects are accounted for by the Boussinesq approximation. For the test conditions simulated in this study, the flow pattern identified is the buoyancy-dominated flow, which is generated by the interaction between the dominant buoyancy force by heating and inertial momentum forces by the inlet jets. As a result, the current CFD moderator analysis model predicts the moderator temperature reasonably, and the maximum error against the experimental data is kept at less than 2.0 deg. C over the whole domain. The simulated velocity field matches with the visualization of SPEL experiments quite well. (authors)

  17. Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

  18. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  19. Validation of CFD modeling for VGM loss-of-forced-cooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wysocki, Aaron; Ahmed, Bobby; Charmeau, Anne; Anghaie, Samim

    2009-01-01

    Heat transfer and fluid flow in the VGM reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) was modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The VGM is a Russian modular-type high temperature helium-cooled reactor. In the reactor cavity, heat is removed from the pressure vessel wall through natural convection and radiative heat transfer to water-cooled vertical pipes lining the outer cavity concrete. The RCCS heat removal capability under normal operation and accident scenarios needs to be assessed. The purpose of the present study is to validate the use of CFD to model heat transfer in the VGM RCCS. Calculations were based on a benchmark problem which defines a two-dimensional temperature distribution on the pressure vessel outer wall for both Depressurized and Pressurized Loss-of-Forced Cooling events. A two-dimensional axisymmetric model was developed to determine the best numerical modeling approach. A grid sensitivity study for the air region showed that a 20 mm mesh size with a boundary layer giving a maximum y+ of 2.0 was optimal. Sensitivity analyses determined that the discrete ordinates radiative model, the k-omega turbulence model, and the ideal gas law gave the best combination for capturing radiation and natural circulation in the air cavity. A maximum RCCS pipe wall temperature of 62degC located 6 m from the top of the cavity was predicted. The model showed good agreement with previous results for both Pressurized and Depressurized Loss-of-Forced-Cooling accidents based on RCCS coolant outlet temperature, relative contributions of radiative and convective heat transfer, and RCCS heat load profiles. (author)

  20. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  1. Validation and selection of ODE based systems biology models: how to arrive at more reliable decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasdemir, Dicle; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K

    2015-07-08

    Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) based modeling studies in systems biology involve a hold-out validation step for model validation. In this framework a pre-determined part of the data is used as validation data and, therefore it is not used for estimating the parameters of the model. The model is assumed to be validated if the model predictions on the validation dataset show good agreement with the data. Model selection between alternative model structures can also be performed in the same setting, based on the predictive power of the model structures on the validation dataset. However, drawbacks associated with this approach are usually under-estimated. We have carried out simulations by using a recently published High Osmolarity Glycerol (HOG) pathway from S.cerevisiae to demonstrate these drawbacks. We have shown that it is very important how the data is partitioned and which part of the data is used for validation purposes. The hold-out validation strategy leads to biased conclusions, since it can lead to different validation and selection decisions when different partitioning schemes are used. Furthermore, finding sensible partitioning schemes that would lead to reliable decisions are heavily dependent on the biology and unknown model parameters which turns the problem into a paradox. This brings the need for alternative validation approaches that offer flexible partitioning of the data. For this purpose, we have introduced a stratified random cross-validation (SRCV) approach that successfully overcomes these limitations. SRCV leads to more stable decisions for both validation and selection which are not biased by underlying biological phenomena. Furthermore, it is less dependent on the specific noise realization in the data. Therefore, it proves to be a promising alternative to the standard hold-out validation strategy.

  2. Validation of the Continuum of Care Conceptual Model for Athletic Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Lafave

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Utilization of conceptual models in field-based emergency care currently borrows from existing standards of medical and paramedical professions. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a comprehensive conceptual model that could account for injuries ranging from nonurgent to catastrophic events including events that do not follow traditional medical or prehospital care protocols. The conceptual model should represent the continuum of care from the time of initial injury spanning to an athlete’s return to participation in their sport. Finally, the conceptual model should accommodate both novices and experts in the AT profession. This paper chronicles the content validation steps of the Continuum of Care Conceptual Model for Athletic Therapy (CCCM-AT. The stages of model development were domain and item generation, content expert validation using a three-stage modified Ebel procedure, and pilot testing. Only the final stage of the modified Ebel procedure reached a priori 80% consensus on three domains of interest: (1 heading descriptors; (2 the order of the model; (3 the conceptual model as a whole. Future research is required to test the use of the CCCM-AT in order to understand its efficacy in teaching and practice within the AT discipline.

  3. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  4. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  5. Animal models of binge drinking, current challenges to improve face validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanblanc, Jérôme; Rolland, Benjamin; Gierski, Fabien; Martinetti, Margaret P; Naassila, Mickael

    2018-05-05

    Binge drinking (BD), i.e., consuming a large amount of alcohol in a short period of time, is an increasing public health issue. Though no clear definition has been adopted worldwide the speed of drinking seems to be a keystone of this behavior. Developing relevant animal models of BD is a priority for gaining a better characterization of the neurobiological and psychobiological mechanisms underlying this dangerous and harmful behavior. Until recently, preclinical research on BD has been conducted mostly using forced administration of alcohol, but more recent studies used scheduled access to alcohol, to model more voluntary excessive intakes, and to achieve signs of intoxications that mimic the human behavior. The main challenges for future research are discussed regarding the need of good face validity, construct validity and predictive validity of animal models of BD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Field validation of the contaminant transport model, FEMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.-F.V.

    1986-01-01

    The work describes the validation with field data of a finite element model of material transport through aquifers (FEMA). Field data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Idaho, USA and from the 58th Street landfill in Miami, Florida, USA are used. In both cases the model was first calibrated and then integrated over a span of eight years to check on the predictive capability of the model. Both predictive runs gave results that matched well with available data. (author)

  7. Validation of a regional distribution model in environmental risk assessment of substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berding, V.

    2000-06-26

    The regional distribution model SimpleBox proposed in the TGD (Technical Guidance Document) and implemented in the EUSES software (European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances) was validated. The aim of this investigation was to determine the applicability and weaknesses of the model and to make proposals for improvement. The validation was performed using the scheme set up by SCHWARTZ (2000) of which the main aspects are the division into internal and external validation, i.e. into generic and task-specific properties of the model. These two validation parts contain the scrutiny of theory, sensitivity analyses, comparison of predicted environmental concentrations with measured ones by means of scenario analyses, uncertainty analyses and comparison with alternative models. Generally, the model employed is a reasonable compromise between complexity and simplification. Simpler models are applicable, too, but in many cases the results can deviate considerably from the measured values. For the sewage treatment model, it could be shown that its influence on the predicted concentration is very low and a much simpler model fulfils its purpose in a similar way. It is proposed to improve the model in several ways, e.g. by including the pH/pK-correction for dissociating substances or by alternative estimations functions for partition coefficients. But the main focus for future improvements should be on the amelioration of release estimations and substance characteristics as degradation rates and partition coefficients.

  8. External validation of EPIWIN biodegradation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posthumus, R; Traas, T P; Peijnenburg, W J G M; Hulzebos, E M

    2005-01-01

    The BIOWIN biodegradation models were evaluated for their suitability for regulatory purposes. BIOWIN includes the linear and non-linear BIODEG and MITI models for estimating the probability of rapid aerobic biodegradation and an expert survey model for primary and ultimate biodegradation estimation. Experimental biodegradation data for 110 newly notified substances were compared with the estimations of the different models. The models were applied separately and in combinations to determine which model(s) showed the best performance. The results of this study were compared with the results of other validation studies and other biodegradation models. The BIOWIN models predict not-readily biodegradable substances with high accuracy in contrast to ready biodegradability. In view of the high environmental concern of persistent chemicals and in view of the large number of not-readily biodegradable chemicals compared to the readily ones, a model is preferred that gives a minimum of false positives without a corresponding high percentage false negatives. A combination of the BIOWIN models (BIOWIN2 or BIOWIN6) showed the highest predictive value for not-readily biodegradability. However, the highest score for overall predictivity with lowest percentage false predictions was achieved by applying BIOWIN3 (pass level 2.75) and BIOWIN6.

  9. Validation of the STAFF-5 computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.F.; Fields, S.R.

    1981-04-01

    STAFF-5 is a dynamic heat-transfer-fluid-flow stress model designed for computerized prediction of the temperature-stress performance of spent LWR fuel assemblies under storage/disposal conditions. Validation of the temperature calculating abilities of this model was performed by comparing temperature calculations under specified conditions to experimental data from the Engine Maintenance and Dissassembly (EMAD) Fuel Temperature Test Facility and to calculations performed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) using the HYDRA-1 model. The comparisons confirmed the ability of STAFF-5 to calculate representative fuel temperatures over a considerable range of conditions, as a first step in the evaluation and prediction of fuel temperature-stress performance

  10. The Validation of a Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersed Binomial Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongphil; Lee, Ji-Hyun

    2017-01-01

    The beta-binomial model has been widely used as an analytically tractable alternative that captures the overdispersion of an intra-correlated, binomial random variable, X . However, the model validation for X has been rarely investigated. As a beta-binomial mass function takes on a few different shapes, the model validation is examined for each of the classified shapes in this paper. Further, the mean square error (MSE) is illustrated for each shape by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on a beta-binomial model approach and the method of moments estimator (MME) in order to gauge when and how much the MLE is biased.

  11. Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vehtari, Aki; Mononen, Tommi; Tolvanen, Ville

    2016-01-01

    The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the Laplace method or expectation propagation (EP). We study...... the properties of several Bayesian leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation approximations that in most cases can be computed with a small additional cost after forming the posterior approximation given the full data. Our main objective is to assess the accuracy of the approximative LOO cross-validation estimators...

  12. Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  13. Validation of lumbar spine loading from a musculoskeletal model including the lower limbs and lumbar spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Actis, Jason A; Honegger, Jasmin D; Gates, Deanna H; Petrella, Anthony J; Nolasco, Luis A; Silverman, Anne K

    2018-02-08

    Low back mechanics are important to quantify to study injury, pain and disability. As in vivo forces are difficult to measure directly, modeling approaches are commonly used to estimate these forces. Validation of model estimates is critical to gain confidence in modeling results across populations of interest, such as people with lower-limb amputation. Motion capture, ground reaction force and electromyographic data were collected from ten participants without an amputation (five male/five female) and five participants with a unilateral transtibial amputation (four male/one female) during trunk-pelvis range of motion trials in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. A musculoskeletal model with a detailed lumbar spine and the legs including 294 muscles was used to predict L4-L5 loading and muscle activations using static optimization. Model estimates of L4-L5 intervertebral joint loading were compared to measured intradiscal pressures from the literature and muscle activations were compared to electromyographic signals. Model loading estimates were only significantly different from experimental measurements during trunk extension for males without an amputation and for people with an amputation, which may suggest a greater portion of L4-L5 axial load transfer through the facet joints, as facet loads are not captured by intradiscal pressure transducers. Pressure estimates between the model and previous work were not significantly different for flexion, lateral bending or axial rotation. Timing of model-estimated muscle activations compared well with electromyographic activity of the lumbar paraspinals and upper erector spinae. Validated estimates of low back loading can increase the applicability of musculoskeletal models to clinical diagnosis and treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling and validation of autoinducer-mediated bacterial gene expression in microfluidic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Caitlin M.; Stoy, William; Su, Peter; Harber, Marie C.; Bardill, J. Patrick; Hammer, Brian K.; Forest, Craig R.

    2014-01-01

    Biosensors exploiting communication within genetically engineered bacteria are becoming increasingly important for monitoring environmental changes. Currently, there are a variety of mathematical models for understanding and predicting how genetically engineered bacteria respond to molecular stimuli in these environments, but as sensors have miniaturized towards microfluidics and are subjected to complex time-varying inputs, the shortcomings of these models have become apparent. The effects of microfluidic environments such as low oxygen concentration, increased biofilm encapsulation, diffusion limited molecular distribution, and higher population densities strongly affect rate constants for gene expression not accounted for in previous models. We report a mathematical model that accurately predicts the biological response of the autoinducer N-acyl homoserine lactone-mediated green fluorescent protein expression in reporter bacteria in microfluidic environments by accommodating these rate constants. This generalized mass action model considers a chain of biomolecular events from input autoinducer chemical to fluorescent protein expression through a series of six chemical species. We have validated this model against experimental data from our own apparatus as well as prior published experimental results. Results indicate accurate prediction of dynamics (e.g., 14% peak time error from a pulse input) and with reduced mean-squared error with pulse or step inputs for a range of concentrations (10 μM–30 μM). This model can help advance the design of genetically engineered bacteria sensors and molecular communication devices. PMID:25379076

  15. NRPB models for calculating the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. Verification and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attwood, C.; Barraclough, I.; Brown, J.

    1998-06-01

    There is a wide range of models available at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. Such models form an essential part of assessments of the radiological impact of releases of radionuclides into the environment. These models cover: the atmosphere; the aquatic environment; the geosphere; the terrestrial environment including foodchains. It is important that the models used for radiological impact assessments are robust, reliable and suitable for the assessment being undertaken. During model development it is, therefore, important that the model is both verified and validated. Verification of a model involves ensuring that it has been implemented correctly, while validation consists of demonstrating that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. The extent to which a model can be verified depends on its complexity and whether similar models exist. For relatively simple models verification is straightforward, but for more complex models verification has to form part of the development, coding and testing of the model within quality assurance procedures. Validation of models should ideally consist of comparisons between the results of the models and experimental or environmental measurement data that were not used to develop the model. This is more straightforward for some models than for others depending on the quantity and type of data available. Validation becomes increasingly difficult for models which are intended to predict environmental transfer at long times or at great distances. It is, therefore, necessary to adopt qualitative validation techniques to ensure that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. This report summarises the models used at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment as part of a radiological impact assessment. It outlines the work carried out to verify and validate the models. The majority of these models are not currently available

  16. Validation by simulation of a clinical trial model using the standardized mean and variance criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Ismail; Rovira, Joan; Casanovas, Josep

    2006-12-01

    To develop and validate a model of a clinical trial that evaluates the changes in cholesterol level as a surrogate marker for lipodystrophy in HIV subjects under alternative antiretroviral regimes, i.e., treatment with Protease Inhibitors vs. a combination of nevirapine and other antiretroviral drugs. Five simulation models were developed based on different assumptions, on treatment variability and pattern of cholesterol reduction over time. The last recorded cholesterol level, the difference from the baseline, the average difference from the baseline and level evolution, are the considered endpoints. Specific validation criteria based on a 10% minus or plus standardized distance in means and variances were used to compare the real and the simulated data. The validity criterion was met by all models for considered endpoints. However, only two models met the validity criterion when all endpoints were considered. The model based on the assumption that within-subjects variability of cholesterol levels changes over time is the one that minimizes the validity criterion, standardized distance equal to or less than 1% minus or plus. Simulation is a useful technique for calibration, estimation, and evaluation of models, which allows us to relax the often overly restrictive assumptions regarding parameters required by analytical approaches. The validity criterion can also be used to select the preferred model for design optimization, until additional data are obtained allowing an external validation of the model.

  17. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  18. Statistical Analysis Methods for Physics Models Verification and Validation

    CERN Document Server

    De Luca, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    The validation and verification process is a fundamental step for any software like Geant4 and GeantV, which aim to perform data simulation using physics models and Monte Carlo techniques. As experimental physicists, we have to face the problem to compare the results obtained using simulations with what the experiments actually observed. One way to solve the problem is to perform a consistency test. Within the Geant group, we developed a C++ compact library which will be added to the automated validation process on the Geant Validation Portal

  19. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  1. Validation of a Wave-Body Interaction Model by Experimental Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferri, Francesco; Kramer, Morten; Pecher, Arthur

    2013-01-01

    Within the wave energy field, numerical simulation has recently acquired a worldwide consent as being a useful tool, besides physical model testing. The main goal of this work is the validation of a numerical model by experimental results. The numerical model is based on a linear wave-body intera...

  2. Verification and Validation of Heat Transfer Model of AGREE Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tak, N. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Seker, V.; Drzewiecki, T. J.; Downar, T. J. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, Univ. of Michigan, Michigan (United States); Kelly, J. M. [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The AGREE code was originally developed as a multi physics simulation code to perform design and safety analysis of Pebble Bed Reactors (PBR). Currently, additional capability for the analysis of Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR) core is in progress. Newly implemented fluid model for a PMR core is based on a subchannel approach which has been widely used in the analyses of light water reactor (LWR) cores. A hexagonal fuel (or graphite block) is discretized into triangular prism nodes having effective conductivities. Then, a meso-scale heat transfer model is applied to the unit cell geometry of a prismatic fuel block. Both unit cell geometries of multi-hole and pin-in-hole types of prismatic fuel blocks are considered in AGREE. The main objective of this work is to verify and validate the heat transfer model newly implemented for a PMR core in the AGREE code. The measured data in the HENDEL experiment were used for the validation of the heat transfer model for a pin-in-hole fuel block. However, the HENDEL tests were limited to only steady-state conditions of pin-in-hole fuel blocks. There exist no available experimental data regarding a heat transfer in multi-hole fuel blocks. Therefore, numerical benchmarks using conceptual problems are considered to verify the heat transfer model of AGREE for multi-hole fuel blocks as well as transient conditions. The CORONA and GAMMA+ codes were used to compare the numerical results. In this work, the verification and validation study were performed for the heat transfer model of the AGREE code using the HENDEL experiment and the numerical benchmarks of selected conceptual problems. The results of the present work show that the heat transfer model of AGREE is accurate and reliable for prismatic fuel blocks. Further validation of AGREE is in progress for a whole reactor problem using the HTTR safety test data such as control rod withdrawal tests and loss-of-forced convection tests.

  3. SWAT application in intensive irrigation systems: Model modification, calibration and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dechmi, Farida; Burguete, Javier; Skhiri, Ahmed

    2012-11-01

    SummaryThe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well established, distributed, eco-hydrologic model. However, using the study case of an agricultural intensive irrigated watershed, it was shown that all the model versions are not able to appropriately reproduce the total streamflow in such system when the irrigation source is outside the watershed. The objective of this study was to modify the SWAT2005 version for correctly simulating the main hydrological processes. Crop yield, total streamflow, total suspended sediment (TSS) losses and phosphorus load calibration and validation were performed using field survey information and water quantity and quality data recorded during 2008 and 2009 years in Del Reguero irrigated watershed in Spain. The goodness of the calibration and validation results was assessed using five statistical measures, including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results indicated that the average annual crop yield and actual evapotranspiration estimations were quite satisfactory. On a monthly basis, the values of NSE were 0.90 (calibration) and 0.80 (validation) indicating that the modified model could reproduce accurately the observed streamflow. The TSS losses were also satisfactorily estimated (NSE = 0.72 and 0.52 for the calibration and validation steps). The monthly temporal patterns and all the statistical parameters indicated that the modified SWAT-IRRIG model adequately predicted the total phosphorus (TP) loading. Therefore, the model could be used to assess the impacts of different best management practices on nonpoint phosphorus losses in irrigated systems.

  4. Sci—Thur AM: YIS - 09: Validation of a General Empirically-Based Beam Model for kV X-ray Sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poirier, Y. [CancerCare Manitoba (Canada); University of Calgary (Canada); Sommerville, M.; Johnstone, C.D. [San Diego State University (United States); Gräfe, J.; Nygren, I.; Jacso, F. [Tom Baker Cancer Centre (Canada); Khan, R.; Villareal-Barajas, J.E. [University of Calgary (Canada); Tom Baker Cancer Centre (Canada); Tambasco, M. [University of Calgary (Canada); San Diego State University (United States)

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To present an empirically-based beam model for computing dose deposited by kilovoltage (kV) x-rays and validate it for radiographic, CT, CBCT, superficial, and orthovoltage kV sources. Method and Materials: We modeled a wide variety of imaging (radiographic, CT, CBCT) and therapeutic (superficial, orthovoltage) kV x-ray sources. The model characterizes spatial variations of the fluence and spectrum independently. The spectrum is derived by matching measured values of the half value layer (HVL) and nominal peak potential (kVp) to computationally-derived spectra while the fluence is derived from in-air relative dose measurements. This model relies only on empirical values and requires no knowledge of proprietary source specifications or other theoretical aspects of the kV x-ray source. To validate the model, we compared measured doses to values computed using our previously validated in-house kV dose computation software, kVDoseCalc. The dose was measured in homogeneous and anthropomorphic phantoms using ionization chambers and LiF thermoluminescent detectors (TLDs), respectively. Results: The maximum difference between measured and computed dose measurements was within 2.6%, 3.6%, 2.0%, 4.8%, and 4.0% for the modeled radiographic, CT, CBCT, superficial, and the orthovoltage sources, respectively. In the anthropomorphic phantom, the computed CBCT dose generally agreed with TLD measurements, with an average difference and standard deviation ranging from 2.4 ± 6.0% to 5.7 ± 10.3% depending on the imaging technique. Most (42/62) measured TLD doses were within 10% of computed values. Conclusions: The proposed model can be used to accurately characterize a wide variety of kV x-ray sources using only empirical values.

  5. External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

  6. Object-oriented simulation model of a parabolic trough solar collector: Static and dynamic validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana

    2017-06-01

    A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).

  7. Experimental Testing Procedures and Dynamic Model Validation for Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Storage System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baccino, Francesco; Marinelli, Mattia; Nørgård, Per Bromand

    2013-01-01

    The paper aims at characterizing the electrochemical and thermal parameters of a 15 kW/320 kWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) installed in the SYSLAB test facility of the DTU Risø Campus and experimentally validating the proposed dynamic model realized in Matlab-Simulink. The adopted testing...... efficiency of the battery system. The test procedure has general validity and could also be used for other storage technologies. The storage model proposed and described is suitable for electrical studies and can represent a general model in terms of validity. Finally, the model simulation outputs...

  8. Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh

    2012-01-01

    Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

  9. Validating a perceptual distraction model using a personal two-zone sound system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user's perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music targets and interferers using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two...... sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. The results show that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech- on-music and music-on-speech stimuli...

  10. Implementation and automated validation of the minimal Z' model in FeynRules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basso, L.; Christensen, N.D.; Duhr, C.; Fuks, B.; Speckner, C.

    2012-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a well-known class of U(1) gauge models, the 'minimal' Z' models, in FeynRules. We also describe a new automated validation tool for FeynRules models which is controlled by a web interface and allows the user to run a complete set of 2 → 2 processes on different matrix element generators, different gauges, and compare between them all. If existing, the comparison with independent implementations is also possible. This tool has been used to validate our implementation of the 'minimal' Z' models. (authors)

  11. Developing a model for hospital inherent safety assessment: Conceptualization and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yari, Saeed; Akbari, Hesam; Gholami Fesharaki, Mohammad; Khosravizadeh, Omid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Barsam, Yalda; Akbari, Hamed

    2018-01-01

    Paying attention to the safety of hospitals, as the most crucial institute for providing medical and health services wherein a bundle of facilities, equipment, and human resource exist, is of significant importance. The present research aims at developing a model for assessing hospitals' safety based on principles of inherent safety design. Face validity (30 experts), content validity (20 experts), construct validity (268 examples), convergent validity, and divergent validity have been employed to validate the prepared questionnaire; and the items analysis, the Cronbach's alpha test, ICC test (to measure reliability of the test), composite reliability coefficient have been used to measure primary reliability. The relationship between variables and factors has been confirmed at 0.05 significance level by conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equations modeling (SEM) technique with the use of Smart-PLS. R-square and load factors values, which were higher than 0.67 and 0.300 respectively, indicated the strong fit. Moderation (0.970), simplification (0.959), substitution (0.943), and minimization (0.5008) have had the most weights in determining the inherent safety of hospital respectively. Moderation, simplification, and substitution, among the other dimensions, have more weight on the inherent safety, while minimization has the less weight, which could be due do its definition as to minimize the risk.

  12. A proposed strategy for the validation of ground-water flow and solute transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, P.A.; Goodrich, M.T.

    1991-01-01

    Ground-water flow and transport models can be thought of as a combination of conceptual and mathematical models and the data that characterize a given system. The judgment of the validity or invalidity of a model depends both on the adequacy of the data and the model structure (i.e., the conceptual and mathematical model). This report proposes a validation strategy for testing both components independently. The strategy is based on the philosophy that a model cannot be proven valid, only invalid or not invalid. In addition, the authors believe that a model should not be judged in absence of its intended purpose. Hence, a flow and transport model may be invalid for one purpose but not invalid for another. 9 refs

  13. Sewer solids separation by sedimentation--the problem of modeling, validation and transferability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutzner, R; Brombach, H; Geiger, W F

    2007-01-01

    Sedimentation of sewer solids in tanks, ponds and similar devices is the most relevant process for the treatment of stormwater and combined sewer overflows in urban collecting systems. In the past a lot of research work was done to develop deterministic models for the description of this separation process. But these modern models are not commonly accepted in Germany until today. Water Authorities are sceptical with regard to model validation and transferability. Within this paper it is checked whether this scepticism is reasonable. A framework-proposal for the validation of mathematical models with zero or one dimensional spatial resolution for particle separation processes for stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment is presented. This proposal was applied to publications of repute on sewer solids separation by sedimentation. The result was that none of the investigated models described in literature passed the validation entirely. There is an urgent need for future research in sewer solids sedimentation and remobilization!

  14. Dynamic modeling and experimental validation for direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process

    KAUST Repository

    Eleiwi, Fadi

    2016-02-01

    This work proposes a mathematical dynamic model for the direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process. The model is based on a 2D Advection–Diffusion Equation (ADE), which describes the heat and mass transfer mechanisms that take place inside the DCMD module. The model studies the behavior of the process in the time varying and the steady state phases, contributing to understanding the process performance, especially when it is driven by intermittent energy supply, such as the solar energy. The model is experimentally validated in the steady state phase, where the permeate flux is measured for different feed inlet temperatures and the maximum absolute error recorded is 2.78 °C. Moreover, experimental validation includes the time variation phase, where the feed inlet temperature ranges from 30 °C to 75 °C with 0.1 °C increment every 2min. The validation marks relative error to be less than 5%, which leads to a strong correlation between the model predictions and the experiments.

  15. Dynamic modeling and experimental validation for direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process

    KAUST Repository

    Eleiwi, Fadi; Ghaffour, NorEddine; Alsaadi, Ahmad Salem; Francis, Lijo; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2016-01-01

    This work proposes a mathematical dynamic model for the direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process. The model is based on a 2D Advection–Diffusion Equation (ADE), which describes the heat and mass transfer mechanisms that take place inside the DCMD module. The model studies the behavior of the process in the time varying and the steady state phases, contributing to understanding the process performance, especially when it is driven by intermittent energy supply, such as the solar energy. The model is experimentally validated in the steady state phase, where the permeate flux is measured for different feed inlet temperatures and the maximum absolute error recorded is 2.78 °C. Moreover, experimental validation includes the time variation phase, where the feed inlet temperature ranges from 30 °C to 75 °C with 0.1 °C increment every 2min. The validation marks relative error to be less than 5%, which leads to a strong correlation between the model predictions and the experiments.

  16. Validating Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Atanasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.

  17. Context discovery using attenuated Bloom codes: model description and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, F.; Heijenk, Geert

    A novel approach to performing context discovery in ad-hoc networks based on the use of attenuated Bloom filters is proposed in this report. In order to investigate the performance of this approach, a model has been developed. This document describes the model and its validation. The model has been

  18. Validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupka, K.M.; Jenne, E.A.; Deutsch, W.J.

    1983-09-01

    As part of the Geochemical Modeling and Nuclide/Rock/Groundwater Interactions Studies Program, a study was conducted to partially validate the WATEQ4 aqueous speciation-solubility geochemical model for uranium. The solubility controls determined with the WATEQ4 geochemical model were in excellent agreement with those laboratory studies in which the solids schoepite [UO 2 (OH) 2 . H 2 O], UO 2 (OH) 2 , and rutherfordine ((UO 2 CO 3 ) were identified as actual solubility controls for uranium. The results of modeling solution analyses from laboratory studies of uranyl phosphate solids, however, identified possible errors in the characterization of solids in the original solubility experiments. As part of this study, significant deficiencies in the WATEQ4 thermodynamic data base for uranium solutes and solids were corrected. Revisions included recalculation of selected uranium reactions. Additionally, thermodynamic data for the hydroxyl complexes of U(VI), including anionic (VI) species, were evaluated (to the extent permitted by the available data). Vanadium reactions were also added to the thermodynamic data base because uranium-vanadium solids can exist in natural ground-water systems. This study is only a partial validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model because the available laboratory solubility studies do not cover the range of solid phases, alkaline pH values, and concentrations of inorganic complexing ligands needed to evaluate the potential solubility of uranium in ground waters associated with various proposed nuclear waste repositories. Further validation of this or other geochemical models for uranium will require careful determinations of uraninite solubility over the pH range of 7 to 10 under highly reducing conditions and of uranyl hydroxide and phosphate solubilities over the pH range of 7 to 10 under oxygenated conditions

  19. A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Leal

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions

  20. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional Outcome After Stroke Rehabilitation: The Maugeri Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrutinio, Domenico; Lanzillo, Bernardo; Guida, Pietro; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Monitillo, Vincenzo; Pusineri, Monica; Formica, Roberto; Russo, Giovanna; Guarnaschelli, Caterina; Ferretti, Chiara; Calabrese, Gianluigi

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 4.12 ( P =0.249) and 1.20 ( P =0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 8.86 ( P =0.115) and 34.50 ( P =0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P =0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P =0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Verification and Validation of FAARR Model and Data Envelopment Analysis Models for United States Army Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piskator, Gene

    1998-01-01

    ...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...

  2. Towards a realistic approach to validation of reactive transport models for performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment calculations are based on geochemical models that assume that interactions among radionuclides, rocks and groundwaters under natural conditions, can be estimated or bound by data obtained from laboratory-scale studies. The data include radionuclide distribution coefficients, measured in saturated batch systems of powdered rocks, and retardation factors measured in short-term column experiments. Traditional approaches to model validation cannot be applied in a straightforward manner to the simple reactive transport models that use these data. An approach to model validation in support of performance assessment is described in this paper. It is based on a recognition of different levels of model validity and is compatible with the requirements of current regulations for high-level waste disposal. Activities that are being carried out in support of this approach include (1) laboratory and numerical experiments to test the validity of important assumptions inherent in current performance assessment methodologies,(2) integrated transport experiments, and (3) development of a robust coupled reaction/transport code for sensitivity analyses using massively parallel computers

  3. Results from the Savannah River Laboratory model validation workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepper, D.W.

    1981-01-01

    To evaluate existing and newly developed air pollution models used in DOE-funded laboratories, the Savannah River Laboratory sponsored a model validation workshop. The workshop used Kr-85 measurements and meteorology data obtained at SRL during 1975 to 1977. Individual laboratories used models to calculate daily, weekly, monthly or annual test periods. Cumulative integrated air concentrations were reported at each grid point and at each of the eight sampler locations

  4. Implementation and validation of the condensation model for containment hydrogen distribution studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravva, Srinivasa Rao; Iyer, Kannan N.; Gupta, S.K.; Gaikwad, Avinash J.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A condensation model based on diffusion was implemented in FLUENT. • Validation of a condensation model for the H 2 distribution studies was performed. • Multi-component diffusion is used in the present work. • Appropriate grid and turbulence model were identified. - Abstract: This paper aims at the implementation details of a condensation model in the CFD code FLUENT and its validation so that it can be used in performing the containment hydrogen distribution studies. In such studies, computational fluid dynamics simulations are necessary for obtaining accurate predictions. While steam condensation plays an important role, commercial CFD codes such as FLUENT do not have an in-built condensation model. Therefore, a condensation model was developed and implemented in the FLUENT code through user defined functions (UDFs) for the sink terms in the mass, momentum, energy and species balance equations together with associated turbulence quantities viz., kinetic energy and dissipation rate. The implemented model was validated against the ISP-47 test of TOSQAN facility using the standard wall functions and enhanced wall treatment approaches. The best suitable grid size and the turbulence model for the low density gas (He) distribution studies are brought out in this paper

  5. System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitmore, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kaffine, Leah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

  6. Increasing the Reliability of Circulation Model Validation: Quantifying Drifter Slip to See how Currents are Actually Moving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, T.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean circulation forecasts can help answer questions regarding larval dispersal, passive movement of injured sea animals, oil spill mitigation, and search and rescue efforts. Circulation forecasts are often validated with GPS-tracked drifter paths, but how accurately do these drifters actually move with ocean currents? Drifters are not only moved by water, but are also forced by wind and waves acting on the exposed buoy and transmitter; this imperfect movement is referred to as drifter slip. The quantification and further understanding of drifter slip will allow scientists to differentiate between drifter imperfections and actual computer model error when comparing trajectory forecasts with actual drifter tracks. This will avoid falsely accrediting all discrepancies between a trajectory forecast and an actual drifter track to computer model error. During multiple deployments of drifters in Nantucket Sound and using observed wind and wave data, we attempt to quantify the slip of drifters developed by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center's (NEFSC) Student Drifters Program. While similar studies have been conducted previously, very few have directly attached current meters to drifters to quantify drifter slip. Furthermore, none have quantified slip of NEFSC drifters relative to the oceanographic-standard "CODE" drifter. The NEFSC drifter archive has over 1000 drifter tracks primarily off the New England coast. With a better understanding of NEFSC drifter slip, modelers can reliably use these tracks for model validation.

  7. Validation of Hydrodynamic Numerical Model of a Pitching Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López, Maria del Pilar Heras; Thomas, Sarah; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede

    2017-01-01

    Validation of numerical model is essential in the development of new technologies. Commercial software and codes available simulating wave energy converters (WECs) have not been proved to work for all the available and upcoming technologies yet. The present paper presents the first stages...... of the validation process of a hydrodynamic numerical model for a pitching wave energy converter. The development of dry tests, wave flume and wave basin experiments are going to be explained, lessons learned shared and results presented....

  8. Model-based clinical dose optimization for phenobarbital in neonates: An illustration of the importance of data sharing and external validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völler, Swantje; Flint, Robert B; Stolk, Leo M; Degraeuwe, Pieter L J; Simons, Sinno H P; Pokorna, Paula; Burger, David M; de Groot, Ronald; Tibboel, Dick; Knibbe, Catherijne A J

    2017-11-15

    Particularly in the pediatric clinical pharmacology field, data-sharing offers the possibility of making the most of all available data. In this study, we utilize previously collected therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data of term and preterm newborns to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for phenobarbital. We externally validate the model using prospective phenobarbital data from an ongoing pharmacokinetic study in preterm neonates. TDM data from 53 neonates (gestational age (GA): 37 (24-42) weeks, bodyweight: 2.7 (0.45-4.5) kg; postnatal age (PNA): 4.5 (0-22) days) contained information on dosage histories, concentration and covariate data (including birth weight, actual weight, post-natal age (PNA), postmenstrual age, GA, sex, liver and kidney function, APGAR-score). Model development was carried out using NONMEM ® 7.3. After assessment of model fit, the model was validated using data of 17 neonates included in the DINO (Drug dosage Improvement in NeOnates)-study. Modelling of 229 plasma concentrations, ranging from 3.2 to 75.2mg/L, resulted in a one compartment model for phenobarbital. Clearance (CL) and volume (V d ) for a child with a birthweight of 2.6kg at PNA day 4.5 was 0.0091L/h (9%) and 2.38L (5%), respectively. Birthweight and PNA were the best predictors for CL maturation, increasing CL by 36.7% per kg birthweight and 5.3% per postnatal day of living, respectively. The best predictor for the increase in V d was actual bodyweight (0.31L/kg). External validation showed that the model can adequately predict the pharmacokinetics in a prospective study. Data-sharing can help to successfully develop and validate population pharmacokinetic models in neonates. From the results it seems that both PNA and bodyweight are required to guide dosing of phenobarbital in term and preterm neonates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Prospective Validation of a High Dimensional Shape Model for Organ Motion in Intact Cervical Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, Casey W.; Green, Garrett; Noticewala, Sonal S.; Li, Nan; Shen, Hanjie [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Vaida, Florin [Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States); Mell, Loren K., E-mail: lmell@ucsd.edu [Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Purpose: Validated models are needed to justify strategies to define planning target volumes (PTVs) for intact cervical cancer used in clinical practice. Our objective was to independently validate a previously published shape model, using data collected prospectively from clinical trials. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 42 patients with intact cervical cancer treated with daily fractionated pelvic intensity modulated radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy in one of 2 prospective clinical trials. We collected online cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans before each fraction. Clinical target volume (CTV) structures from the planning computed tomography scan were cast onto each CBCT scan after rigid registration and manually redrawn to account for organ motion and deformation. We applied the 95% isodose cloud from the planning computed tomography scan to each CBCT scan and computed any CTV outside the 95% isodose cloud. The primary aim was to determine the proportion of CTVs that were encompassed within the 95% isodose volume. A 1-sample t test was used to test the hypothesis that the probability of complete coverage was different from 95%. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to assess effects of time and patient variability. Results: The 95% isodose line completely encompassed 92.3% of all CTVs (95% confidence interval, 88.3%-96.4%), not significantly different from the 95% probability anticipated a priori (P=.19). The overall proportion of missed CTVs was small: the grand mean of covered CTVs was 99.9%, and 95.2% of misses were located in the anterior body of the uterus. Time did not affect coverage probability (P=.71). Conclusions: With the clinical implementation of a previously proposed PTV definition strategy based on a shape model for intact cervical cancer, the probability of CTV coverage was high and the volume of CTV missed was low. This PTV expansion strategy is acceptable for clinical trials and practice; however, we recommend daily

  10. Anatomical Cystocele Recurrence: Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergeldt, Tineke F M; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Notten, Kim J B; Kluivers, Kirsten B; Weemhoff, Mirjam

    2016-02-01

    To develop a prediction model that estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence after surgery. The databases of two multicenter prospective cohort studies were combined, and we performed a retrospective secondary analysis of these data. Women undergoing an anterior colporrhaphy without mesh materials and without previous pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery filled in a questionnaire, underwent translabial three-dimensional ultrasonography, and underwent staging of POP preoperatively and postoperatively. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using standard bootstrapping techniques. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by computing indices of overall performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and its clinical utility by computing test characteristics. Of 287 included women, 149 (51.9%) had anatomical cystocele recurrence. Factors included in the prediction model were assisted delivery, preoperative cystocele stage, number of compartments involved, major levator ani muscle defects, and levator hiatal area during Valsalva. Potential predictors that were excluded after backward elimination because of high P values were age, body mass index, number of vaginal deliveries, and family history of POP. The shrinkage factor resulting from the bootstrap procedure was 0.91. After correction for optimism, Nagelkerke's R and the Brier score were 0.15 and 0.22, respectively. This indicates satisfactory model fit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 71.6% (95% confidence interval 65.7-77.5). After correction for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 69.7%. This prediction model, including history of assisted delivery, preoperative stage, number of compartments, levator defects, and levator hiatus, estimates the risk of anatomical cystocele recurrence.

  11. Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...

  12. An integrated approach for the validation of energy and environmental system analysis models : used in the validation of the Flexigas Excel BioGas model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pierie, Frank; van Someren, Christian; Liu, Wen; Bekkering, Jan; Hengeveld, Evert Jan; Holstein, J.; Benders, René M.J.; Laugs, Gideon A.H.; van Gemert, Wim; Moll, Henri C.

    2016-01-01

    A review has been completed for a verification and validation (V&V) of the (Excel) BioGas simulator or EBS model. The EBS model calculates the environmental impact of biogas production pathways using Material and Energy Flow Analysis, time dependent dynamics, geographic information, and Life Cycle

  13. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  14. Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 2 - model validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yaning; Xu, Fei; Li, Bingxi; Kim, Yong-Song; Zhao, Wenke; Xie, Gongnan; Fu, Zhongbin

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to validate the three-phase heat and mass transfer model developed in the first part (Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 1 - model development). Experimental results from studies and experiments were used for the validation. The results showed that the correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental water contents at different soil depths were between 0.83 and 0.92. The correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental liquid water contents at different soil temperatures were between 0.95 and 0.99. With these high accuracies, the developed model can be well used to predict the water contents at different soil depths and temperatures.

  15. Validation of NEPTUNE-CFD two-phase flow models using experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Manes, Jorge; Sanchez Espinoza, Victor Hugo; Bottcher, Michael; Stieglitz, Robert; Sergio Chiva Vicent

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the validation of the two-phase flow models of the CFD code NEPTUNE-CFD using experimental data provided by the OECD BWR BFBT and PSBT Benchmark. Since the two-phase models of CFD codes are extensively being improved, the validation is a key step for the acceptability of such codes. The validation work is performed in the frame of the European NURISP Project and it was focused on the steady state and transient void fraction tests. The influence of different NEPTUNE-CFD model parameters on the void fraction prediction is investigated and discussed in detail. Due to the coupling of heat conduction solver SYRTHES with NEPTUNE-CFD, the description of the coupled fluid dynamics and heat transfer between the fuel rod and the fluid is improved significantly. The averaged void fraction predicted by NEPTUNE-CFD for selected PSBT and BFBT tests is in good agreement with the experimental data. Finally, areas for future improvements of the NEPTUNE-CFD code were identified, too. (authors)

  16. Development and validation of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tom E; Elley, C Raina; Kenealy, Tim; Drury, Paul L

    2015-06-01

    Type 2 diabetes is common and is associated with an approximate 80% increase in the rate of mortality. Management decisions may be assisted by an estimate of the patient's absolute risk of adverse outcomes, including death. This study aimed to derive a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes. We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked mortality records to develop a predictive risk model for 5-year risk of mortality. We then validated this model using information from a separate cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. 26,864 people were included in the development cohort with a median follow up time of 9.1 years. We developed three models initially using demographic information and then progressively more clinical detail. The final model, which also included markers of renal disease, proved to give best prediction of all-cause mortality with a C-statistic of 0.80 in the development cohort and 0.79 in the validation cohort (7610 people) and was well calibrated. Ethnicity was a major factor with hazard ratios of 1.37 for indigenous Maori, 0.41 for East Asian and 0.55 for Indo Asian compared with European (P<0.001). We have developed a model using information usually available in primary care that provides good assessment of patient's risk of death. Results are similar to models previously published from smaller cohorts in other countries and apply to a wider range of patient ethnic groups. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  17. Flight Testing an Iced Business Jet for Flight Simulation Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Lee, Sam; Cooper, Jon

    2007-01-01

    A flight test of a business jet aircraft with various ice accretions was performed to obtain data to validate flight simulation models developed through wind tunnel tests. Three types of ice accretions were tested: pre-activation roughness, runback shapes that form downstream of the thermal wing ice protection system, and a wing ice protection system failure shape. The high fidelity flight simulation models of this business jet aircraft were validated using a software tool called "Overdrive." Through comparisons of flight-extracted aerodynamic forces and moments to simulation-predicted forces and moments, the simulation models were successfully validated. Only minor adjustments in the simulation database were required to obtain adequate match, signifying the process used to develop the simulation models was successful. The simulation models were implemented in the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device (ICEFTD) to enable company pilots to evaluate flight characteristics of the simulation models. By and large, the pilots confirmed good similarities in the flight characteristics when compared to the real airplane. However, pilots noted pitch up tendencies at stall with the flaps extended that were not representative of the airplane and identified some differences in pilot forces. The elevator hinge moment model and implementation of the control forces on the ICEFTD were identified as a driver in the pitch ups and control force issues, and will be an area for future work.

  18. Diurnal changes of net photosynthetic rate (NPR) in leaves of Lonicera japonica Thunb. and the responding mathematical model of NPR to photosynthetic valid radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Dafu; Zhang Shengli; Li Dongfang

    2009-01-01

    [Objective] The study provided theoretical basis for production practice . [Method] With Lonicera japonica Thunb .as material, diurnal changes of net photosynthetic rate (NPR) in leaves of the plant and the responding mathematical model of NPR to photosynthetic valid radiation were studied using portable photosynthetic determinator system. [Result] Like most of C3 plants, the diurnal changes curve of NPR of Lonicera japonica Thunb .showed double peaks, but there were time difference in reaching the peak value between the study and previous ones . The responding mathematical model of NPR to photosynthetic valid radiation could be described by three mathematic functions, such as logarithm, linearity and binomial, but binomial function was more precise than the others. Light saturation point of Lonicera japonica Thunb. was figured out by binomial equation deduced in the study , and light saturation point was 1 086 .3 μmol/ (m2•s) . [Conclusion] The diurnal changes curve of NPR of Lonicera japonica Thunb .showed double peaks, and the responding mathematical model of NPR to photosynthetic valid radiation could be described by binomial functions

  19. Validating and improving a zero-dimensional stack voltage model of the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, S.; Suriyah, M. R.; Leibfried, T.

    2018-02-01

    Simple, computationally efficient battery models can contribute significantly to the development of flow batteries. However, validation studies for these models on an industrial-scale stack level are rarely published. We first extensively present a simple stack voltage model for the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery. For modeling the concentration overpotential, we derive mass transfer coefficients from experimental results presented in the 1990s. The calculated mass transfer coefficient of the positive half-cell is 63% larger than of the negative half-cell, which is not considered in models published to date. Further, we advance the concentration overpotential model by introducing an apparent electrochemically active electrode surface which differs from the geometric electrode area. We use the apparent surface as fitting parameter for adapting the model to experimental results of a flow battery manufacturer. For adapting the model, we propose a method for determining the agreement between model and reality quantitatively. To protect the manufacturer's intellectual property, we introduce a normalization method for presenting the results. For the studied stack, the apparent electrochemically active surface of the electrode is 41% larger than its geometrical area. Hence, the current density in the diffusion layer is 29% smaller than previously reported for a zero-dimensional model.

  20. Pre-engineering Spaceflight Validation of Environmental Models and the 2005 HZETRN Simulation Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Dachev, Ts. P.; Tomov, B. T.; Walker, Steven A.; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William

    2006-01-01

    The HZETRN code has been identified by NASA for engineering design in the next phase of space exploration highlighting a return to the Moon in preparation for a Mars mission. In response, a new series of algorithms beginning with 2005 HZETRN, will be issued by correcting some prior limitations and improving control of propagated errors along with established code verification processes. Code validation processes will use new/improved low Earth orbit (LEO) environmental models with a recently improved International Space Station (ISS) shield model to validate computational models and procedures using measured data aboard ISS. These validated models will provide a basis for flight-testing the designs of future space vehicles and systems of the Constellation program in the LEO environment.

  1. A Component-Based Modeling and Validation Method for PLC Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Programmable logic controllers (PLCs are complex embedded systems that are widely used in industry. This paper presents a component-based modeling and validation method for PLC systems using the behavior-interaction-priority (BIP framework. We designed a general system architecture and a component library for a type of device control system. The control software and hardware of the environment were all modeled as BIP components. System requirements were formalized as monitors. Simulation was carried out to validate the system model. A realistic example from industry of the gates control system was employed to illustrate our strategies. We found a couple of design errors during the simulation, which helped us to improve the dependability of the original systems. The results of experiment demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach.

  2. Selecting the "Best" Factor Structure and Moving Measurement Validation Forward: An Illustration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Thomas A; Sass, Daniel A; Chappelle, Wayne; Thompson, William

    2018-04-09

    Despite the broad literature base on factor analysis best practices, research seeking to evaluate a measure's psychometric properties frequently fails to consider or follow these recommendations. This leads to incorrect factor structures, numerous and often overly complex competing factor models and, perhaps most harmful, biased model results. Our goal is to demonstrate a practical and actionable process for factor analysis through (a) an overview of six statistical and psychometric issues and approaches to be aware of, investigate, and report when engaging in factor structure validation, along with a flowchart for recommended procedures to understand latent factor structures; (b) demonstrating these issues to provide a summary of the updated Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist (PCL-5) factor models and a rationale for validation; and (c) conducting a comprehensive statistical and psychometric validation of the PCL-5 factor structure to demonstrate all the issues we described earlier. Considering previous research, the PCL-5 was evaluated using a sample of 1,403 U.S. Air Force remotely piloted aircraft operators with high levels of battlefield exposure. Previously proposed PCL-5 factor structures were not supported by the data, but instead a bifactor model is arguably more statistically appropriate.

  3. GEP analysis validates high risk MDS and acute myeloid leukemia post MDS mice models and highlights novel dysregulated pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerenne, Laura; Beurlet, Stéphanie; Said, Mohamed; Gorombei, Petra; Le Pogam, Carole; Guidez, Fabien; de la Grange, Pierre; Omidvar, Nader; Vanneaux, Valérie; Mills, Ken; Mufti, Ghulam J; Sarda-Mantel, Laure; Noguera, Maria Elena; Pla, Marika; Fenaux, Pierre; Padua, Rose Ann; Chomienne, Christine; Krief, Patricia

    2016-01-27

    In spite of the recent discovery of genetic mutations in most myelodysplasic (MDS) patients, the pathophysiology of these disorders still remains poorly understood, and only few in vivo models are available to help unravel the disease. We performed global specific gene expression profiling and functional pathway analysis in purified Sca1+ cells of two MDS transgenic mouse models that mimic human high-risk MDS (HR-MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) post MDS, with NRASD12 and BCL2 transgenes under the control of different promoters MRP8NRASD12/tethBCL-2 or MRP8[NRASD12/hBCL-2], respectively. Analysis of dysregulated genes that were unique to the diseased HR-MDS and AML post MDS mice and not their founder mice pointed first to pathways that had previously been reported in MDS patients, including DNA replication/damage/repair, cell cycle, apoptosis, immune responses, and canonical Wnt pathways, further validating these models at the gene expression level. Interestingly, pathways not previously reported in MDS were discovered. These included dysregulated genes of noncanonical Wnt pathways and energy and lipid metabolisms. These dysregulated genes were not only confirmed in a different independent set of BM and spleen Sca1+ cells from the MDS mice but also in MDS CD34+ BM patient samples. These two MDS models may thus provide useful preclinical models to target pathways previously identified in MDS patients and to unravel novel pathways highlighted by this study.

  4. Validation of Neutron Calculation Codes and Models by means of benchmark cases in the frame of the Binational Commission of Nuclear Energy. Criticality Experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dos Santos, Adimir; Siqueira, Paulo de Tarso D.; Andrade e Silva, Graciete Simões; Grant, Carlos; Tarazaga, Ariel E.; Barberis, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    In year 2008 the Atomic Energy National Commission (CNEA) of Argentina, and the Brazilian Institute of Energetic and Nuclear Research (IPEN), under the frame of Nuclear Energy Argentine Brazilian Agreement (COBEN), among many others, included the project “Validation and Verification of Calculation Methods used for Research and Experimental Reactors . At this time, it was established that the validation was to be performed with models implemented in the deterministic codes HUEMUL and PUMA (cell and reactor codes) developed by CNEA and those ones implemented in MCNP by CNEA and IPEN. The necessary data for these validations would correspond to theoretical-experimental reference cases in the research reactor IPEN/MB-01 located in São Paulo, Brazil. The staff of the group Reactor and Nuclear Power Studies (SERC) of CNEA, from the argentine side, performed calculations with deterministic models (HUEMUL-PUMA) and probabilistic methods (MCNP) modeling a great number of physical situations of de reactor, which previously have been studied and modeled by members of the Center of Nuclear Engineering of the IPEN, whose results were extensively provided to CNEA. In this paper results for critical configurations are shown. (author)

  5. Modeling of surge in free-spool centrifugal compressors : experimental validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gravdahl, J.T.; Willems, F.P.T.; Jager, de A.G.; Egeland, O.

    2004-01-01

    The derivation of a compressor characteristic, and the experimental validation of a dynamic model for a variable speed centrifugal compressor using this characteristic, are presented. The dynamic compressor model of Fink et al. is used, and a variable speed compressor characteristic is derived by

  6. Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Palazón-Bru

    Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.

  7. Earth as an extrasolar planet: Earth model validation using EPOXI earth observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tyler D; Meadows, Victoria S; Crisp, David; Deming, Drake; A'hearn, Michael F; Charbonneau, David; Livengood, Timothy A; Seager, Sara; Barry, Richard K; Hearty, Thomas; Hewagama, Tilak; Lisse, Carey M; McFadden, Lucy A; Wellnitz, Dennis D

    2011-06-01

    The EPOXI Discovery Mission of Opportunity reused the Deep Impact flyby spacecraft to obtain spatially and temporally resolved visible photometric and moderate resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic observations of Earth. These remote observations provide a rigorous validation of whole-disk Earth model simulations used to better understand remotely detectable extrasolar planet characteristics. We have used these data to upgrade, correct, and validate the NASA Astrobiology Institute's Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional line-by-line, multiple-scattering spectral Earth model. This comprehensive model now includes specular reflectance from the ocean and explicitly includes atmospheric effects such as Rayleigh scattering, gas absorption, and temperature structure. We have used this model to generate spatially and temporally resolved synthetic spectra and images of Earth for the dates of EPOXI observation. Model parameters were varied to yield an optimum fit to the data. We found that a minimum spatial resolution of ∼100 pixels on the visible disk, and four categories of water clouds, which were defined by using observed cloud positions and optical thicknesses, were needed to yield acceptable fits. The validated model provides a simultaneous fit to Earth's lightcurve, absolute brightness, and spectral data, with a root-mean-square (RMS) error of typically less than 3% for the multiwavelength lightcurves and residuals of ∼10% for the absolute brightness throughout the visible and NIR spectral range. We have extended our validation into the mid-infrared by comparing the model to high spectral resolution observations of Earth from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, obtaining a fit with residuals of ∼7% and brightness temperature errors of less than 1 K in the atmospheric window. For the purpose of understanding the observable characteristics of the distant Earth at arbitrary viewing geometry and observing cadence, our validated forward model can be

  8. Validation of a Hot Water Distribution Model Using Laboratory and Field Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backman, C.; Hoeschele, M.

    2013-07-01

    Characterizing the performance of hot water distribution systems is a critical step in developing best practice guidelines for the design and installation of high performance hot water systems. Developing and validating simulation models is critical to this effort, as well as collecting accurate input data to drive the models. In this project, the ARBI team validated the newly developed TRNSYS Type 604 pipe model against both detailed laboratory and field distribution system performance data. Validation efforts indicate that the model performs very well in handling different pipe materials, insulation cases, and varying hot water load conditions. Limitations of the model include the complexity of setting up the input file and long simulation run times. In addition to completing validation activities, this project looked at recent field hot water studies to better understand use patterns and potential behavioral changes as homeowners convert from conventional storage water heaters to gas tankless units. Based on these datasets, we conclude that the current Energy Factor test procedure overestimates typical use and underestimates the number of hot water draws. This has implications for both equipment and distribution system performance. Gas tankless water heaters were found to impact how people use hot water, but the data does not necessarily suggest an increase in usage. Further study in hot water usage and patterns is needed to better define these characteristics in different climates and home vintages.

  9. The role of CFD combustion modeling in hydrogen safety management-II: Validation based on homogeneous hydrogen-air experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathiah, Pratap, E-mail: sathiah@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Haren, Steven van, E-mail: vanharen@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Komen, Ed, E-mail: komen@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Roekaerts, Dirk, E-mail: d.j.e.m.roekaerts@tudelft.nl [Department of Multi-Scale Physics, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5, 2600 AA Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A CFD based method is proposed for the simulation of hydrogen deflagration. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A dynamic grid adaptation method is proposed to resolve turbulent flame brush thickness. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The predictions obtained using this method is in good agreement with the static grid method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer TFC model results are in good agreement with large-scale homogeneous hydrogen-air experiments. - Abstract: During a severe accident in a PWR, large quantities of hydrogen can be generated and released into the containment. The generated hydrogen, when mixed with air, can lead to hydrogen combustion. The dynamic pressure loads resulting from hydrogen combustion can be detrimental to the structural integrity of the reactor safety systems and the reactor containment. Therefore, accurate prediction of these pressure loads is an important safety issue. In a previous article, we presented a CFD based method to determine these pressure loads. This CFD method is based on the application of a turbulent flame speed closure combustion model. The validation analyses in our previous paper demonstrated that it is of utmost importance to apply successive mesh and time step refinement in order to get reliable results. In this article, we first determined to what extent the required computational effort required for our CFD approach can be reduced by the application of adaptive mesh refinement, while maintaining the accuracy requirements. Experiments performed within a small fan stirred explosion bomb were used for this purpose. It could be concluded that adaptive grid adaptation is a reliable and efficient method for usage in hydrogen deflagration analyses. For the two-dimensional validation analyses, the application of dynamic grid adaptation resulted in a reduction of the required computational effort by about one order of magnitude. In a second step, the considered CFD approach including adaptive

  10. Validation of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology Sudden Cardiac Death Risk Prediction Model in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in a Reference Center in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Adrián; Quiroga, Alejandro; Ochoa, Juan Pablo; Mysuta, Mauricio; Casabé, José Horacio; Biagetti, Marcelo; Guevara, Eduardo; Favaloro, Liliana E; Fava, Agostina M; Galizio, Néstor

    2016-07-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a common cause of death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC). Our aim was to conduct an external and independent validation in South America of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) SCD risk prediction model to identify patients requiring an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. This study included 502 consecutive patients with HC followed from March, 1993 to December, 2014. A combined end point of SCD or appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy was assessed. For the quantitative estimation of individual 5-year SCD risk, we used the formula: 1 - 0.998(exp(Prognostic index)). Our database also included the abnormal blood pressure response to exercise as a risk marker. We analyzed the 3 categories of 5-year risk proposed by the ESC: low risk (LR) validated in our population and represents an improvement compared with previous approaches. A larger multicenter, independent and external validation of the model with long-term follow-up would be advisable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Experimental validation of a thermodynamic boiler model under steady state and dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlon, Elisa; Verma, Vijay Kumar; Schwarz, Markus; Golicza, Laszlo; Prada, Alessandro; Baratieri, Marco; Haslinger, Walter; Schmidl, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Laboratory tests on two commercially available pellet boilers. • Steady state and a dynamic load cycle tests. • Pellet boiler model calibration based on data registered in stationary operation. • Boiler model validation with reference to both stationary and dynamic operation. • Validated model suitable for coupled simulation of building and heating system. - Abstract: Nowadays dynamic building simulation is an essential tool for the design of heating systems for residential buildings. The simulation of buildings heated by biomass systems, first of all needs detailed boiler models, capable of simulating the boiler both as a stand-alone appliance and as a system component. This paper presents the calibration and validation of a boiler model by means of laboratory tests. The chosen model, i.e. TRNSYS “Type 869”, has been validated for two commercially available pellet boilers of 6 and 12 kW nominal capacities. Two test methods have been applied: the first is a steady state test at nominal load and the second is a load cycle test including stationary operation at different loads as well as transient operation. The load cycle test is representative of the boiler operation in the field and characterises the boiler’s stationary and dynamic behaviour. The model had been calibrated based on laboratory data registered during stationary operation at different loads and afterwards it was validated by simulating both the stationary and the dynamic tests. Selected parameters for the validation were the heat transfer rates to water and the water temperature profiles inside the boiler and at the boiler outlet. Modelling results showed better agreement with experimental data during stationary operation rather than during dynamic operation. Heat transfer rates to water were predicted with a maximum deviation of 10% during the stationary operation, and a maximum deviation of 30% during the dynamic load cycle. However, for both operational regimes the

  12. Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, David J.; Ng, Wanyi

    2018-01-01

    Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.

  13. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg

    2008-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the

  14. Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))

    2008-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the

  15. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  16. Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model IMS Model Suite and its Validation against Experimental Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartok, J.

    2010-01-01

    The dissertation presents IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model, which is a 'new generation' Slovak dispersion model of long-range transport, developed by MicroStep-MIS. It solves trajectory equation for a vast number of Lagrangian 'particles' and stochastic equation that simulates the effects of turbulence. Model contains simulation of radioactive decay (full decay chains of more than 300 nuclides), and dry and wet deposition. Model was integrated into IMS Model Suite, a system in which several models and modules can run and cooperate, e.g. LAM model WRF preparing fine resolution meteorological data for dispersion. The main theme of the work is validation of dispersion model against large scale international campaigns CAPTEX and ETEX, which are two of the largest tracer experiments. Validation addressed treatment of missing data, data interpolation into comparable temporal and spatial representation. The best model results were observed for ETEX I, standard results for CAPTEXes and worst results for ETEX II, known in modelling community for its meteorological conditions that can be hardly resolved by models. The IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model was identified as capable long range dispersion model for slowly- or nonreacting chemicals and radioactive matter. Influence of input data on simulation quality is discussed within the work. Additional modules were prepared according to praxis requirement: a) Recalculation of concentrations of radioactive pollutant into effective doses form inhalation, immersion in the plume and deposition. b) Dispersion of mineral dust was added and tested in desert locality, where wind and soil moisture were firstly analysed and forecast by WRF. The result was qualitatively verified in case study against satellite observations. (author)

  17. Measurement and Finite Element Model Validation of Immature Porcine Brain-Skull Displacement during Rapid Sagittal Head Rotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquesi, Stephanie A; Margulies, Susan S

    2018-01-01

    Computational models are valuable tools for studying tissue-level mechanisms of traumatic brain injury, but to produce more accurate estimates of tissue deformation, these models must be validated against experimental data. In this study, we present in situ measurements of brain-skull displacement in the neonatal piglet head ( n  = 3) at the sagittal midline during six rapid non-impact rotations (two rotations per specimen) with peak angular velocities averaging 51.7 ± 1.4 rad/s. Marks on the sagittally cut brain and skull/rigid potting surfaces were tracked, and peak values of relative brain-skull displacement were extracted and found to be significantly less than values extracted from a previous axial plane model. In a finite element model of the sagittally transected neonatal porcine head, the brain-skull boundary condition was matched to the measured physical experiment data. Despite smaller sagittal plane displacements at the brain-skull boundary, the corresponding finite element boundary condition optimized for sagittal plane rotations is far less stiff than its axial counterpart, likely due to the prominent role of the boundary geometry in restricting interface movement. Finally, bridging veins were included in the finite element model. Varying the bridging vein mechanical behavior over a previously reported range had no influence on the brain-skull boundary displacements. This direction-specific sagittal plane boundary condition can be employed in finite element models of rapid sagittal head rotations.

  18. Measurement and Finite Element Model Validation of Immature Porcine Brain–Skull Displacement during Rapid Sagittal Head Rotations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquesi, Stephanie A.; Margulies, Susan S.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models are valuable tools for studying tissue-level mechanisms of traumatic brain injury, but to produce more accurate estimates of tissue deformation, these models must be validated against experimental data. In this study, we present in situ measurements of brain–skull displacement in the neonatal piglet head (n = 3) at the sagittal midline during six rapid non-impact rotations (two rotations per specimen) with peak angular velocities averaging 51.7 ± 1.4 rad/s. Marks on the sagittally cut brain and skull/rigid potting surfaces were tracked, and peak values of relative brain–skull displacement were extracted and found to be significantly less than values extracted from a previous axial plane model. In a finite element model of the sagittally transected neonatal porcine head, the brain–skull boundary condition was matched to the measured physical experiment data. Despite smaller sagittal plane displacements at the brain–skull boundary, the corresponding finite element boundary condition optimized for sagittal plane rotations is far less stiff than its axial counterpart, likely due to the prominent role of the boundary geometry in restricting interface movement. Finally, bridging veins were included in the finite element model. Varying the bridging vein mechanical behavior over a previously reported range had no influence on the brain–skull boundary displacements. This direction-specific sagittal plane boundary condition can be employed in finite element models of rapid sagittal head rotations. PMID:29515995

  19. Reactor core modeling practice: Operational requirements, model characteristics, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbino, H.

    1997-01-01

    The physical models implemented in power plant simulators have greatly increased in performance and complexity in recent years. This process has been enabled by the ever increasing computing power available at affordable prices. This paper describes this process from several angles: First the operational requirements which are more critical from the point of view of model performance, both for normal and off-normal operating conditions; A second section discusses core model characteristics in the light of the solutions implemented by Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) in several full-scope simulators recently built and delivered for Dutch, German, and French nuclear power plants; finally we consider the model validation procedures, which are of course an integral part of model development, and which are becoming more and more severe as performance expectations increase. As a conclusion, it may be asserted that in the core modeling field, as in other areas, the general improvement in the quality of simulation codes has resulted in a fairly rapid convergence towards mainstream engineering-grade calculations. This is remarkable performance in view of the stringent real-time requirements which the simulation codes must satisfy as well as the extremely wide range of operating conditions that they are called upon to cover with good accuracy. (author)

  20. A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-09-01

    The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates. To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers. A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid. We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity. Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

  2. Validation of a FAST Model of the SWAY Prototype Floating Wind Turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, J. H. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore); Ng, E. Y. K. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore); Robertson, Amy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jonkman, Jason [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Driscoll, Frederick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-06-01

    As part of a collaboration of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and SWAY AS, NREL installed scientific wind, wave, and motion measurement equipment on the spar-type 1/6.5th-scale prototype SWAY floating offshore wind system. The equipment enhanced SWAY's data collection and allowed SWAY to verify the concept and NREL to validate a FAST model of the SWAY design in an open-water condition. Nanyang Technological University (NTU), in collaboration with NREL, assisted with the validation. This final report gives an overview of the SWAY prototype and NREL and NTU's efforts to validate a model of the system. The report provides a summary of the different software tools used in the study, the modeling strategies, and the development of a FAST model of the SWAY prototype wind turbine, including justification of the modeling assumptions. Because of uncertainty in system parameters and modeling assumptions due to the complexity of the design, several system properties were tuned to better represent the system and improve the accuracy of the simulations. Calibration was performed using data from a static equilibrium test and free-decay tests.

  3. Refining and validating a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Miriam; Williams, Marjory; Su, Wei; Hites, Lisle

    2017-02-01

    To empirically validate a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery. There is limited evidence of frontline care delivery models that consistently achieve quality patient outcomes. Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery is a promising nursing model with a growing record of success. However, theoretical clarity is necessary to generate causal evidence of effectiveness. Sequential mixed methods. A preliminary Clinical Nurse Leader practice model was refined and survey items developed to correspond with model domains, using focus groups and a Delphi process with a multi-professional expert panel. The survey was administered in 2015 to clinicians and administrators involved in Clinical Nurse Leader initiatives. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling were used to validate the measurement and model structure. Final sample n = 518. The model incorporates 13 components organized into five conceptual domains: 'Readiness for Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Structuring Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Clinical Nurse Leader Practice: Continuous Clinical Leadership'; 'Outcomes of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; and 'Value'. Sample data had good fit with specified model and two-level measurement structure. All hypothesized pathways were significant, with strong coefficients suggesting good fit between theorized and observed path relationships. The validated model articulates an explanatory pathway of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery, including Clinical Nurse Leader practices that result in improved care dynamics and patient outcomes. The validated model provides a basis for testing in practice to generate evidence that can be deployed across the healthcare spectrum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Predictive Simulation of Material Failure Using Peridynamics -- Advanced Constitutive Modeling, Verification and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T

  5. Development and validation of a multidimensional measure of lean manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan A. Marin-Garcia

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years of research of lean manufacturing many different questionnaires was proposed to check the degree of the use of the concept. The set of the items used changed considerably from one investigation to another one. Until now isn’t appreciate a movement that converge towards the use, by the investigators, of a few instruments whose validity and reliability have been compared in different surroundings. In fact, the majority of investigations are based on ad-hoc questionnaires and a few of them present the questionnaire validation checking only the unidimensionality and -Cronbach. Nevertheless it seems to have a consensus in identifying 5 big constructs that compose the lean manufacturing (TQM, JIT, TPM, supply chain management and high-involvement. Our research has consisted of identifying and summarizing the models that have been published previously to add the items in constructs or sub-scales of constructs. Later we developed an integrating questionnaire, starting off of the items that appeared in previous investigations. Finally we realized the sub-scales and models validation through a confirmatory factorial analysis, using date of a sample of Spanish Sheltered Work Centre’s (N=128. Of all proposed models, the best an adjustment takes place with the first order model with 20 sub-scales. Our investigation contributes to an integrating vision of the published models and the lean manufacturing sub-scales validity and reliability verification raised by other investigators. Due to his confirming approach, it can serve as generalization of studies that had been realized in contexts with different samples to which we have used for the replication.

  6. Development and validation of a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model for simulating submarining in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jingwen; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P; Kokkolaras, Michael; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2012-06-01

    In motor-vehicle crashes, young school-aged children restrained by vehicle seat belt systems often suffer from abdominal injuries due to submarining. However, the current anthropomorphic test device, so-called "crash dummy", is not adequate for proper simulation of submarining. In this study, a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model capable of simulating and predicting submarining was developed using MADYMO (TNO Automotive Safety Solutions). The model incorporated improved pelvis and abdomen geometry and properties previously tested in a modified physical dummy. The model was calibrated and validated against four sled tests under two test conditions with and without submarining using a multi-objective optimization method. A sensitivity analysis using this validated child dummy model showed that dummy knee excursion, torso rotation angle, and the difference between head and knee excursions were good predictors for submarining status. It was also shown that restraint system design variables, such as lap belt angle, D-ring height, and seat coefficient of friction (COF), may have opposite effects on head and abdomen injury risks; therefore child dummies and dummy models capable of simulating submarining are crucial for future restraint system design optimization for young school-aged children. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Validation of the hdm models forcrack initiation and development, rutting and roughness of the pavement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjenović Slobodan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide practice recommends validation of the HDM models with some other software that can be used for comparison of the forecasting results. The program package MATLAB is used in this case, as it enables for modelling of all the HDM models. A statistic validation of the results of the forecasts concerning the condition of the pavements in HDM with the on-field measuring results was also performed. This paper shall present the results of the validation of the coefficients of calibration of the deterioration models in HDM 4 on the Macedonian highways.

  8. Natural analogues and radionuclide transport model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lever, D.A.

    1987-08-01

    In this paper, some possible roles for natural analogues are discussed from the point of view of those involved with the development of mathematical models for radionuclide transport and with the use of these models in repository safety assessments. The characteristic features of a safety assessment are outlined in order to address the questions of where natural analogues can be used to improve our understanding of the processes involved and where they can assist in validating the models that are used. Natural analogues have the potential to provide useful information about some critical processes, especially long-term chemical processes and migration rates. There is likely to be considerable uncertainty and ambiguity associated with the interpretation of natural analogues, and thus it is their general features which should be emphasized, and models with appropriate levels of sophistication should be used. Experience gained in modelling the Koongarra uranium deposit in northern Australia is drawn upon. (author)

  9. Image decomposition as a tool for validating stress analysis models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mottershead J.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is good practice to validate analytical and numerical models used in stress analysis for engineering design by comparison with measurements obtained from real components either in-service or in the laboratory. In reality, this critical step is often neglected or reduced to placing a single strain gage at the predicted hot-spot of stress. Modern techniques of optical analysis allow full-field maps of displacement, strain and, or stress to be obtained from real components with relative ease and at modest cost. However, validations continued to be performed only at predicted and, or observed hot-spots and most of the wealth of data is ignored. It is proposed that image decomposition methods, commonly employed in techniques such as fingerprinting and iris recognition, can be employed to validate stress analysis models by comparing all of the key features in the data from the experiment and the model. Image decomposition techniques such as Zernike moments and Fourier transforms have been used to decompose full-field distributions for strain generated from optical techniques such as digital image correlation and thermoelastic stress analysis as well as from analytical and numerical models by treating the strain distributions as images. The result of the decomposition is 101 to 102 image descriptors instead of the 105 or 106 pixels in the original data. As a consequence, it is relatively easy to make a statistical comparison of the image descriptors from the experiment and from the analytical/numerical model and to provide a quantitative assessment of the stress analysis.

  10. Convergent validity test, construct validity test and external validity test of the David Liberman algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Maldavsky

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The author first exposes a complement of a previous test about convergent validity, then a construct validity test and finally an external validity test of the David Liberman algorithm.  The first part of the paper focused on a complementary aspect, the differential sensitivity of the DLA 1 in an external comparison (to other methods, and 2 in an internal comparison (between two ways of using the same method, the DLA.  The construct validity test exposes the concepts underlined to DLA, their operationalization and some corrections emerging from several empirical studies we carried out.  The external validity test examines the possibility of using the investigation of a single case and its relation with the investigation of a more extended sample.

  11. Model performance evaluation (validation and calibration) in model-based studies of therapeutic interventions for cardiovascular diseases : a review and suggested reporting framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan

    2013-04-01

    Decision analytic models play an increasingly important role in the economic evaluation of health technologies. Given uncertainties around the assumptions used to develop such models, several guidelines have been published to identify and assess 'best practice' in the model development process, including general modelling approach (e.g., time horizon), model structure, input data and model performance evaluation. This paper focuses on model performance evaluation. In the absence of a sufficient level of detail around model performance evaluation, concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs, and hence the credibility of such models, are frequently raised. Following presentation of its components, a review of the application and reporting of model performance evaluation is presented. Taking cardiovascular disease as an illustrative example, the review investigates the use of face validity, internal validity, external validity, and cross model validity. As a part of the performance evaluation process, model calibration is also discussed and its use in applied studies investigated. The review found that the application and reporting of model performance evaluation across 81 studies of treatment for cardiovascular disease was variable. Cross-model validation was reported in 55 % of the reviewed studies, though the level of detail provided varied considerably. We found that very few studies documented other types of validity, and only 6 % of the reviewed articles reported a calibration process. Considering the above findings, we propose a comprehensive model performance evaluation framework (checklist), informed by a review of best-practice guidelines. This framework provides a basis for more accurate and consistent documentation of model performance evaluation. This will improve the peer review process and the comparability of modelling studies. Recognising the fundamental role of decision analytic models in informing public funding decisions, the proposed

  12. Benchmarks for GADRAS performance validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattingly, John K.; Mitchell, Dean James; Rhykerd, Charles L. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    The performance of the Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) was validated by comparing GADRAS model results to experimental measurements for a series of benchmark sources. Sources for the benchmark include a plutonium metal sphere, bare and shielded in polyethylene, plutonium oxide in cans, a highly enriched uranium sphere, bare and shielded in polyethylene, a depleted uranium shell and spheres, and a natural uranium sphere. The benchmark experimental data were previously acquired and consist of careful collection of background and calibration source spectra along with the source spectra. The calibration data were fit with GADRAS to determine response functions for the detector in each experiment. A one-dimensional model (pie chart) was constructed for each source based on the dimensions of the benchmark source. The GADRAS code made a forward calculation from each model to predict the radiation spectrum for the detector used in the benchmark experiment. The comparisons between the GADRAS calculation and the experimental measurements are excellent, validating that GADRAS can correctly predict the radiation spectra for these well-defined benchmark sources.

  13. Lessons learned from recent geomagnetic disturbance model validation activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A. A.; Welling, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    Due to concerns pertaining to geomagnetically induced current impact on ground-based infrastructure, there has been significantly elevated interest in applying models for local geomagnetic disturbance or "delta-B" predictions. Correspondingly there has been elevated need for testing the quality of the delta-B predictions generated by the modern empirical and physics-based models. To address this need, community-wide activities were launched under the GEM Challenge framework and one culmination of the activities was the validation and selection of models that were transitioned into operations at NOAA SWPC. The community-wide delta-B action is continued under the CCMC-facilitated International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and its "Ground Magnetic Perturbations: dBdt, delta-B, GICs, FACs" working group. The new delta-B working group builds on the past experiences and expands the collaborations to cover the entire international space weather community. In this paper, we discuss the key lessons learned from the past delta-B validation exercises and lay out the path forward for building on those experience under the new delta-B working group.

  14. Construction and validation of detailed kinetic models for the combustion of gasoline surrogates; Construction et validation de modeles cinetiques detailles pour la combustion de melanges modeles des essences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touchard, S.

    2005-10-15

    The irreversible reduction of oil resources, the CO{sub 2} emission control and the application of increasingly strict standards of pollutants emission lead the worldwide researchers to work to reduce the pollutants formation and to improve the engine yields, especially by using homogenous charge combustion of lean mixtures. The numerical simulation of fuel blends oxidation is an essential tool to study the influence of fuel formulation and motor conditions on auto-ignition and on pollutants emissions. The automatic generation helps to obtain detailed kinetic models, especially at low temperature, where the number of reactions quickly exceeds thousand. The main purpose of this study is the generation and the validation of detailed kinetic models for the oxidation of gasoline blends using the EXGAS software. This work has implied an improvement of computation rules for thermodynamic and kinetic data, those were validated by numerical simulation using CHEMKIN II softwares. A large part of this work has concerned the understanding of the low temperature oxidation chemistry of the C5 and larger alkenes. Low and high temperature mechanisms were proposed and validated for 1 pentene, 1-hexene, the binary mixtures containing 1 hexene/iso octane, 1 hexene/toluene, iso octane/toluene and the ternary mixture of 1 hexene/toluene/iso octane. Simulations were also done for propene, 1-butene and iso-octane with former models including the modifications proposed in this PhD work. If the generated models allowed us to simulate with a good agreement the auto-ignition delays of the studied molecules and blends, some uncertainties still remains for some reaction paths leading to the formation of cyclic products in the case of alkenes oxidation at low temperature. It would be also interesting to carry on this work for combustion models of gasoline blends at low temperature. (author)

  15. The role of CFD combustion modeling in hydrogen safety management – III: Validation based on homogeneous hydrogen–air–diluent experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathiah, Pratap, E-mail: pratap.sathiah78@gmail.com [Shell Global Solutions Ltd., Brabazon House, Concord Business Park, Threapwood Road, Manchester M220RR (United Kingdom); Komen, Ed [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group – NRG, P.O. Box 25, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Roekaerts, Dirk [Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5, 2600 AA Delft (Netherlands)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • A CFD based method proposed in the previous article is used for the simulation of the effect of CO{sub 2}–He dilution on hydrogen deflagration. • A theoretical study is presented to verify whether CO{sub 2}–He diluent can be used as a replacement for H{sub 2}O as diluent. • CFD model used for the validation work is described. • TFC combustion model results are in good agreement with large-scale homogeneous hydrogen–air–CO{sub 2}–He experiments. - Abstract: Large quantities of hydrogen can be generated and released into the containment during a severe accident in a PWR. The generated hydrogen, when mixed with air, can lead to hydrogen combustion. The dynamic pressure loads resulting from hydrogen combustion can be detrimental to the structural integrity of the reactor safety systems and the reactor containment. Therefore, accurate prediction of these pressure loads is an important safety issue. In our previous article, a CFD based method to determine these pressure loads was presented. This CFD method is based on the application of a turbulent flame speed closure combustion model. The method was validated against three uniform hydrogen–air deflagration experiments with different blockage ratio performed in the ENACCEF facility. It was concluded that the maximum pressures were predicted within 13% accuracy, while the rate of pressure rise dp/dt was predicted within about 30%. The eigen frequencies of the residual pressure wave phenomena were predicted within a few %. In the present article, we perform additional validation of the CFD based method against three uniform hydrogen–air–CO{sub 2}–He deflagration experiments with three different concentrations of the CO{sub 2}–He diluent. The trends of decrease in the flame velocity, the intermediate peak pressure, the rate of pressure rise dp/dt, and the maximum value of the mean pressure with an increase in the CO{sub 2}–He dilution are captured well in the simulations. From the

  16. Validation of an O-18 leaf water enrichment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeggi, M.; Saurer, M.; Siegwolf, R.

    2002-03-01

    The seasonal trend in {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} in leaf organic matter of spruce needles of mature trees could be modelled for two years. The seasonality was mainly explained by the {delta}{sup 18}O of top-soil water, whereas between years differences were due to variation in air humidity. Application of a third year's data set improved the correlation between modelled and measured {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} and thus validated our extended Dongmann model. (author)

  17. Development and validation of logistic prognostic models by predefined SAS-macros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziegler, Christoph

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In medical decision making about therapies or diagnostic procedures in the treatment of patients the prognoses of the course or of the magnitude of diseases plays a relevant role. Beside of the subjective attitude of the clinician mathematical models can help in providing such prognoses. Such models are mostly multivariate regression models. In the case of a dichotomous outcome the logistic model will be applied as the standard model. In this paper we will describe SAS-macros for the development of such a model, for examination of the prognostic performance, and for model validation. The rational for this developmental approach of a prognostic modelling and the description of the macros can only given briefly in this paper. Much more details are given in. These 14 SAS-macros are a tool for setting up the whole process of deriving a prognostic model. Especially the possibility of validating the model by a standardized software tool gives an opportunity, which is not used in general in published prognostic models. Therefore, this can help to develop new models with good prognostic performance for use in medical applications.

  18. Modeling and validation of existing VAV system components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nassif, N.; Kajl, S.; Sabourin, R. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    The optimization of supervisory control strategies and local-loop controllers can improve the performance of HVAC (heating, ventilating, air-conditioning) systems. In this study, the component model of the fan, the damper and the cooling coil were developed and validated against monitored data of an existing variable air volume (VAV) system installed at Montreal's Ecole de Technologie Superieure. The measured variables that influence energy use in individual HVAC models included: (1) outdoor and return air temperature and relative humidity, (2) supply air and water temperatures, (3) zone airflow rates, (4) supply duct, outlet fan, mixing plenum static pressures, (5) fan speed, and (6) minimum and principal damper and cooling and heating coil valve positions. The additional variables that were considered, but not measured were: (1) fan and outdoor airflow rate, (2) inlet and outlet cooling coil relative humidity, and (3) liquid flow rate through the heating or cooling coils. The paper demonstrates the challenges of the validation process when monitored data of existing VAV systems are used. 7 refs., 11 figs.

  19. Effects of Task Performance and Task Complexity on the Validity of Computational Models of Attention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, L. de; Maanen, P.P. van; Dongen, K. van

    2008-01-01

    Computational models of attention can be used as a component of decision support systems. For accurate support, a computational model of attention has to be valid and robust. The effects of task performance and task complexity on the validity of three different computational models of attention were

  20. Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...

  1. Validation of PV-RPM Code in the System Advisor Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klise, Geoffrey Taylor [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-04-01

    This paper describes efforts made by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to validate the SNL developed PV Reliability Performance Model (PV - RPM) algorithm as implemented in the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM). The PV - RPM model is a library of functions that estimates component failure and repair in a photovoltaic system over a desired simulation period. The failure and repair distributions in this paper are probabilistic representations of component failure and repair based on data collected by SNL for a PV power plant operating in Arizona. The validation effort focuses on whether the failure and repair dist ributions used in the SAM implementation result in estimated failures that match the expected failures developed in the proof - of - concept implementation. Results indicate that the SAM implementation of PV - RPM provides the same results as the proof - of - concep t implementation, indicating the algorithms were reproduced successfully.

  2. Deployable and Conformal Planar Micro-Devices: Design and Model Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinda Zhuang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We report a design concept for a deployable planar microdevice and the modeling and experimental validation of its mechanical behavior. The device consists of foldable membranes that are suspended between flexible stems and actuated by push-pull wires. Such a deployable device can be introduced into a region of interest in its compact “collapsed” state and then deployed to conformally cover a large two-dimensional surface area for minimally invasive biomedical operations and other engineering applications. We develop and experimentally validate theoretical models based on the energy minimization approach to examine the conformality and figures of merit of the device. The experimental results obtained using model contact surfaces agree well with the prediction and quantitatively highlight the importance of the membrane bending modulus in controlling surface conformality. The present study establishes an early foundation for the mechanical design of this and related deployable planar microdevice concepts.

  3. Modeling and validating HL7 FHIR profiles using semantic web Shape Expressions (ShEx).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solbrig, Harold R; Prud'hommeaux, Eric; Grieve, Grahame; McKenzie, Lloyd; Mandel, Joshua C; Sharma, Deepak K; Jiang, Guoqian

    2017-03-01

    HL7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) is an emerging open standard for the exchange of electronic healthcare information. FHIR resources are defined in a specialized modeling language. FHIR instances can currently be represented in either XML or JSON. The FHIR and Semantic Web communities are developing a third FHIR instance representation format in Resource Description Framework (RDF). Shape Expressions (ShEx), a formal RDF data constraint language, is a candidate for describing and validating the FHIR RDF representation. Create a FHIR to ShEx model transformation and assess its ability to describe and validate FHIR RDF data. We created the methods and tools that generate the ShEx schemas modeling the FHIR to RDF specification being developed by HL7 ITS/W3C RDF Task Force, and evaluated the applicability of ShEx in the description and validation of FHIR to RDF transformations. The ShEx models contributed significantly to workgroup consensus. Algorithmic transformations from the FHIR model to ShEx schemas and FHIR example data to RDF transformations were incorporated into the FHIR build process. ShEx schemas representing 109 FHIR resources were used to validate 511 FHIR RDF data examples from the Standards for Trial Use (STU 3) Ballot version. We were able to uncover unresolved issues in the FHIR to RDF specification and detect 10 types of errors and root causes in the actual implementation. The FHIR ShEx representations have been included in the official FHIR web pages for the STU 3 Ballot version since September 2016. ShEx can be used to define and validate the syntax of a FHIR resource, which is complementary to the use of RDF Schema (RDFS) and Web Ontology Language (OWL) for semantic validation. ShEx proved useful for describing a standard model of FHIR RDF data. The combination of a formal model and a succinct format enabled comprehensive review and automated validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  5. Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided

  6. Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Andrew M.; Peck, Jeffrey A.; Stewart, Eric C.

    2018-01-01

    The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation

  7. An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candido Dos Reis, Francisco J; Wishart, Gordon C; Dicks, Ed M; Greenberg, David; Rashbass, Jem; Schmidt, Marjanka K; van den Broek, Alexandra J; Ellis, Ian O; Green, Andrew; Rakha, Emad; Maishman, Tom; Eccles, Diana M; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2017-05-22

    PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age

  8. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  9. Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2012-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

  10. GEP analysis validates high risk MDS and acute myeloid leukemia post MDS mice models and highlights novel dysregulated pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guerenne

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In spite of the recent discovery of genetic mutations in most myelodysplasic (MDS patients, the pathophysiology of these disorders still remains poorly understood, and only few in vivo models are available to help unravel the disease. Methods We performed global specific gene expression profiling and functional pathway analysis in purified Sca1+ cells of two MDS transgenic mouse models that mimic human high-risk MDS (HR-MDS and acute myeloid leukemia (AML post MDS, with NRASD12 and BCL2 transgenes under the control of different promoters MRP8NRASD12/tethBCL-2 or MRP8[NRASD12/hBCL-2], respectively. Results Analysis of dysregulated genes that were unique to the diseased HR-MDS and AML post MDS mice and not their founder mice pointed first to pathways that had previously been reported in MDS patients, including DNA replication/damage/repair, cell cycle, apoptosis, immune responses, and canonical Wnt pathways, further validating these models at the gene expression level. Interestingly, pathways not previously reported in MDS were discovered. These included dysregulated genes of noncanonical Wnt pathways and energy and lipid metabolisms. These dysregulated genes were not only confirmed in a different independent set of BM and spleen Sca1+ cells from the MDS mice but also in MDS CD34+ BM patient samples. Conclusions These two MDS models may thus provide useful preclinical models to target pathways previously identified in MDS patients and to unravel novel pathways highlighted by this study.

  11. Distributed Trust Management for Validating SLA Choreographies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haq, Irfan Ul; Alnemr, Rehab; Paschke, Adrian; Schikuta, Erich; Boley, Harold; Meinel, Christoph

    For business workflow automation in a service-enriched environment such as a grid or a cloud, services scattered across heterogeneous Virtual Organizations (VOs) can be aggregated in a producer-consumer manner, building hierarchical structures of added value. In order to preserve the supply chain, the Service Level Agreements (SLAs) corresponding to the underlying choreography of services should also be incrementally aggregated. This cross-VO hierarchical SLA aggregation requires validation, for which a distributed trust system becomes a prerequisite. Elaborating our previous work on rule-based SLA validation, we propose a hybrid distributed trust model. This new model is based on Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) and reputation-based trust systems. It helps preventing SLA violations by identifying violation-prone services at service selection stage and actively contributes in breach management at the time of penalty enforcement.

  12. Design and validation of a dynamic discrete event stochastic simulation model of mastitis control in dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allore, H G; Schruben, L W; Erb, H N; Oltenacu, P A

    1998-03-01

    A dynamic stochastic simulation model for discrete events, SIMMAST, was developed to simulate the effect of mastitis on the composition of the bulk tank milk of dairy herds. Intramammary infections caused by Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus spp. other than Strep. agalactiae, Staphylococcus aureus, and coagulase-negative staphylococci were modeled as were the milk, fat, and protein test day solutions for individual cows, which accounted for the fixed effects of days in milk, age at calving, season of calving, somatic cell count (SCC), and random effects of test day, cow yield differences from herdmates, and autocorrelated errors. Probabilities for the transitions among various states of udder health (uninfected or subclinically or clinically infected) were calculated to account for exposure, heifer infection, spontaneous recovery, lactation cure, infection or cure during the dry period, month of lactation, parity, within-herd yields, and the number of quarters with clinical intramammary infection in the previous and current lactations. The stochastic simulation model was constructed using estimates from the literature and also using data from 164 herds enrolled with Quality Milk Promotion Services that each had bulk tank SCC between 500,000 and 750,000/ml. Model parameters and outputs were validated against a separate data file of 69 herds from the Northeast Dairy Herd Improvement Association, each with a bulk tank SCC that was > or = 500,000/ml. Sensitivity analysis was performed on all input parameters for control herds. Using the validated stochastic simulation model, the control herds had a stable time average bulk tank SCC between 500,000 and 750,000/ml.

  13. A validation of ground ambulance pre-hospital times modeled using geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Alka B; Waters, Nigel M; Blanchard, Ian E; Doig, Christopher J; Ghali, William A

    2012-10-03

    Evaluating geographic access to health services often requires determining the patient travel time to a specified service. For urgent care, many research studies have modeled patient pre-hospital time by ground emergency medical services (EMS) using geographic information systems (GIS). The purpose of this study was to determine if the modeling assumptions proposed through prior United States (US) studies are valid in a non-US context, and to use the resulting information to provide revised recommendations for modeling travel time using GIS in the absence of actual EMS trip data. The study sample contained all emergency adult patient trips within the Calgary area for 2006. Each record included four components of pre-hospital time (activation, response, on-scene and transport interval). The actual activation and on-scene intervals were compared with those used in published models. The transport interval was calculated within GIS using the Network Analyst extension of Esri ArcGIS 10.0 and the response interval was derived using previously established methods. These GIS derived transport and response intervals were compared with the actual times using descriptive methods. We used the information acquired through the analysis of the EMS trip data to create an updated model that could be used to estimate travel time in the absence of actual EMS trip records. There were 29,765 complete EMS records for scene locations inside the city and 529 outside. The actual median on-scene intervals were longer than the average previously reported by 7-8 minutes. Actual EMS pre-hospital times across our study area were significantly higher than the estimated times modeled using GIS and the original travel time assumptions. Our updated model, although still underestimating the total pre-hospital time, more accurately represents the true pre-hospital time in our study area. The widespread use of generalized EMS pre-hospital time assumptions based on US data may not be appropriate in a

  14. When is the Anelastic Approximation a Valid Model for Compressible Convection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alboussiere, T.; Curbelo, J.; Labrosse, S.; Ricard, Y. R.; Dubuffet, F.

    2017-12-01

    Compressible convection is ubiquitous in large natural systems such Planetary atmospheres, stellar and planetary interiors. Its modelling is notoriously more difficult than the case when the Boussinesq approximation applies. One reason for that difficulty has been put forward by Ogura and Phillips (1961): the compressible equations generate sound waves with very short time scales which need to be resolved. This is why they introduced an anelastic model, based on an expansion of the solution around an isentropic hydrostatic profile. How accurate is that anelastic model? What are the conditions for its validity? To answer these questions, we have developed a numerical model for the full set of compressible equations and compared its solutions with those of the corresponding anelastic model. We considered a simple rectangular 2D Rayleigh-Bénard configuration and decided to restrict the analysis to infinite Prandtl numbers. This choice is valid for convection in the mantles of rocky planets, but more importantly lead to a zero Mach number. So we got rid of the question of the interference of acoustic waves with convection. In that simplified context, we used the entropy balances (that of the full set of equations and that of the anelastic model) to investigate the differences between exact and anelastic solutions. We found that the validity of the anelastic model is dictated by two conditions: first, the superadiabatic temperature difference must be small compared with the adiabatic temperature difference (as expected) ɛ = Δ TSA / delta Ta << 1, and secondly that the product of ɛ with the Nusselt number must be small.

  15. Qualitative Validation of the IMM Model for ISS and STS Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, E.; Walton, M.; Reyes, D.; Boley, L.; Saile, L.; Young, M.; Arellano, J.; Garcia, Y.; Myers, J. G.

    2016-01-01

    To validate and further improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), medical event data were obtained from 32 ISS and 122 STS person-missions. Using the crew characteristics from these observed missions, IMM v4.0 was used to forecast medical events and medical resource utilization. The IMM medical condition incidence values were compared to the actual observed medical event incidence values, and the IMM forecasted medical resource utilization was compared to actual observed medical resource utilization. Qualitative comparisons of these parameters were conducted for both the ISS and STS programs. The results of these analyses will provide validation of IMM v4.0 and reveal areas of the model requiring adjustments to improve the overall accuracy of IMM outputs. This validation effort should result in enhanced credibility of the IMM and improved confidence in the use of IMM as a decision support tool for human space flight.

  16. Model-based Systems Engineering: Creation and Implementation of Model Validation Rules for MOS 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Conrad K.

    2013-01-01

    Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging modeling application that is used to enhance the system development process. MBSE allows for the centralization of project and system information that would otherwise be stored in extraneous locations, yielding better communication, expedited document generation and increased knowledge capture. Based on MBSE concepts and the employment of the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), extremely large and complex systems can be modeled from conceptual design through all system lifecycles. The Operations Revitalization Initiative (OpsRev) seeks to leverage MBSE to modernize the aging Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) into the Mission Operations System 2.0 (MOS 2.0). The MOS 2.0 will be delivered in a series of conceptual and design models and documents built using the modeling tool MagicDraw. To ensure model completeness and cohesiveness, it is imperative that the MOS 2.0 models adhere to the specifications, patterns and profiles of the Mission Service Architecture Framework, thus leading to the use of validation rules. This paper outlines the process by which validation rules are identified, designed, implemented and tested. Ultimately, these rules provide the ability to maintain model correctness and synchronization in a simple, quick and effective manner, thus allowing the continuation of project and system progress.

  17. Multiphysics modelling and experimental validation of high concentration photovoltaic modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theristis, Marios; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Sumner, Mike; O'Donovan, Tadhg S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multiphysics modelling approach for concentrating photovoltaics was developed. • An experimental campaign was conducted to validate the models. • The experimental results were in good agreement with the models. • The multiphysics modelling allows the concentrator’s optimisation. - Abstract: High concentration photovoltaics, equipped with high efficiency multijunction solar cells, have great potential in achieving cost-effective and clean electricity generation at utility scale. Such systems are more complex compared to conventional photovoltaics because of the multiphysics effect that is present. Modelling the power output of such systems is therefore crucial for their further market penetration. Following this line, a multiphysics modelling procedure for high concentration photovoltaics is presented in this work. It combines an open source spectral model, a single diode electrical model and a three-dimensional finite element thermal model. In order to validate the models and the multiphysics modelling procedure against actual data, an outdoor experimental campaign was conducted in Albuquerque, New Mexico using a high concentration photovoltaic monomodule that is thoroughly described in terms of its geometry and materials. The experimental results were in good agreement (within 2.7%) with the predicted maximum power point. This multiphysics approach is relatively more complex when compared to empirical models, but besides the overall performance prediction it can also provide better understanding of the physics involved in the conversion of solar irradiance into electricity. It can therefore be used for the design and optimisation of high concentration photovoltaic modules.

  18. Validation of housekeeping genes for quantitative real-time PCR in in-vivo and in-vitro models of cerebral ischaemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Joaquín

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Studies of gene expression in experimental cerebral ischaemia models can contribute to understanding the pathophysiology of brain ischaemia and to identifying prognostic markers and potential therapeutic targets. The normalization of relative qRT-PCR data using a suitable reference gene is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable conclusions. No validated housekeeping genes have been reported for the relative quantification of the mRNA expression profile activated in in-vitro ischaemic conditions, whereas for the in-vivo model different reference genes have been used. The present study aims to determine the expression stability of ten housekeeping genes (Gapdh, β2m, Hprt, Ppia, Rpl13a, Oaz1, 18S rRNA, Gusb, Ywhaz and Sdha to establish their suitability as control genes for in-vitro and in-vivo cerebral ischaemia models. Results The expression stability of the candidate reference genes was evaluated using the 2-ΔC'T method and ANOVA followed by Dunnett's test. For the in-vitro model using primary cultures of rat astrocytes, all genes analysed except for Rpl13a and Sdha were found to have significantly different levels of mRNA expression. These different levels were also found in the case of the in-vivo model of pMCAO in rats except for Hprt, Sdha and Ywhaz mRNA, where the expression did not vary. Sdha and Ywhaz were identified by geNorm and NormFinder as the two most stable genes. Conclusion We have validated endogenous control genes for qRT-PCR analysis of gene expression in in-vitro and in-vivo cerebral ischaemia models. For normalization purposes, Rpl13a and Sdha are found to be the most suitable genes for the in-vitro model and Sdha and Ywhaz for the in-vivo model. Genes previously used as housekeeping genes for the in-vivo model in the literature were not validated as good control genes in the present study, showing the need for careful evaluation for each new experimental setup.

  19. DMFC performance and methanol cross-over: Experimental analysis and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casalegno, A.; Marchesi, R. [Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)

    2008-10-15

    A combined experimental and modelling approach is proposed to analyze methanol cross-over and its effect on DMFC performance. The experimental analysis is performed in order to allow an accurate investigation of methanol cross-over influence on DMFC performance, hence measurements were characterized in terms of uncertainty and reproducibility. The findings suggest that methanol cross-over is mainly determined by diffusion transport and affects cell performance partly via methanol electro-oxidation at the cathode. The modelling analysis is carried out to further investigate methanol cross-over phenomenon. A simple model evaluates the effectiveness of two proposed interpretations regarding methanol cross-over and its effects. The model is validated using the experimental data gathered. Both the experimental analysis and the proposed and validated model allow a substantial step forward in the understanding of the main phenomena associated with methanol cross-over. The findings confirm the possibility to reduce methanol cross-over by optimizing anode feeding. (author)

  20. Modelling and validation of electromechanical shock absorbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonoli, Andrea; Amati, Nicola; Girardello Detoni, Joaquim; Galluzzi, Renato; Gasparin, Enrico

    2013-08-01

    Electromechanical vehicle suspension systems represent a promising substitute to conventional hydraulic solutions. However, the design of electromechanical devices that are able to supply high damping forces without exceeding geometric dimension and mass constraints is a difficult task. All these challenges meet in off-road vehicle suspension systems, where the power density of the dampers is a crucial parameter. In this context, the present paper outlines a particular shock absorber configuration where a suitable electric machine and a transmission mechanism are utilised to meet off-road vehicle requirements. A dynamic model is used to represent the device. Subsequently, experimental tests are performed on an actual prototype to verify the functionality of the damper and validate the proposed model.

  1. Modelling of PEM Fuel Cell Performance: Steady-State and Dynamic Experimental Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idoia San Martín

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modelling of a commercial 1.2 kW proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC, based on interrelated electrical and thermal models. The electrical model proposed is based on the integration of the thermodynamic and electrochemical phenomena taking place in the FC whilst the thermal model is established from the FC thermal energy balance. The combination of both models makes it possible to predict the FC voltage, based on the current demanded and the ambient temperature. Furthermore, an experimental characterization is conducted and the parameters for the models associated with the FC electrical and thermal performance are obtained. The models are implemented in Matlab Simulink and validated in a number of operating environments, for steady-state and dynamic modes alike. In turn, the FC models are validated in an actual microgrid operating environment, through the series connection of 4 PEMFC. The simulations of the models precisely and accurately reproduce the FC electrical and thermal performance.

  2. 3D Core Model for simulation of nuclear power plants: Simulation requirements, model features, and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbino, H.

    1999-01-01

    In 1994-1996, Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) earned out the D50 Project, which involved the design and construction of optimized replica simulators for one Dutch and three German Nuclear Power Plants. It was recognized early on that the faithful reproduction of the Siemens reactor control and protection systems would impose extremely stringent demands on the simulation models, particularly the Core physics and the RCS thermohydraulics. The quality of the models, and their thorough validation, were thus essential. The present paper describes the main features of the fully 3D Core model implemented by TT and S, and its extensive validation campaign, which was defined in extremely positive collaboration with the Customer and the Core Data suppliers. (author)

  3. Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

    2015-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

  4. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

  5. Sizing and scaling requirements of a large-scale physical model for code validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaleel, R.; Legore, T.

    1990-01-01

    Model validation is an important consideration in application of a code for performance assessment and therefore in assessing the long-term behavior of the engineered and natural barriers of a geologic repository. Scaling considerations relevant to porous media flow are reviewed. An analysis approach is presented for determining the sizing requirements of a large-scale, hydrology physical model. The physical model will be used to validate performance assessment codes that evaluate the long-term behavior of the repository isolation system. Numerical simulation results for sizing requirements are presented for a porous medium model in which the media properties are spatially uncorrelated

  6. Validating relationships among attachment, emotional intelligence and clinical communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, M Gemma; Fletcher, Ian; O'Sullivan, Helen

    2014-10-01

    In a previous study, we found that emotional intelligence (EI) mediates the negative influences of Year 1 medical students' attachment styles on their provider-patient communication (PPC). However, in that study, students were examined on a relatively straightforward PPC skill set and were not assessed on their abilities to elicit relevant clinical information from standardised patients. The influence of these psychological variables in more demanding and realistic clinical scenarios warrants investigation. This study aimed to validate previous research findings by exploring the mediating effect of EI on the relationship between medical students' attachment styles and their PPC across an ecologically valid PPC objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). Year 2 medical students completed measures of attachment (the Experiences in Close Relationships-Short Form [ECR-SF], a 12-item measure which provides attachment avoidance and attachment anxiety dimensional scores) and EI (the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test [MSCEIT], a 141-item measure on the perception, use, understanding and management of emotions), prior to their summative PPC OSCE. Provider-patient communication was assessed using OSCE scores. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to validate our earlier model of the relationships between attachment style, EI and PPC. A total of 296 of 382 (77.5%) students participated. Attachment avoidance was significantly negatively correlated with total EI scores (r = -0.23, p < 0.01); total EI was significantly positively correlated with OSCE scores (r = 0.32, p < 0.01). Parsimonious SEM confirmed that EI mediated the negative influence of attachment avoidance on OSCE scores. It significantly predicted 14% of the variance in OSCE scores, twice as much as the 7% observed in the previous study. In more demanding and realistic clinical scenarios, EI makes a greater contribution towards effective PPC. Attachment is perceived to be stable

  7. Wave Tank Testing and Model Validation of an Autonomous Wave Energy Converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bret Bosma

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A key component in bringing ocean wave energy converters from concept to commercialization is the building and testing of scaled prototypes to provide model validation. A one quarter scale prototype of an autonomous two body heaving point absorber was modeled, built, and tested for this work. Wave tank testing results are compared with two hydrodynamic and system models—implemented in both ANSYS AQWA and MATLAB/Simulink—and show model validation over certain regions of operation. This work will serve as a guide for future developers of wave energy converter devices, providing insight in taking their design from concept to prototype stage.

  8. Using the mouse to model human disease: increasing validity and reproducibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica J. Justice

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Experiments that use the mouse as a model for disease have recently come under scrutiny because of the repeated failure of data, particularly derived from preclinical studies, to be replicated or translated to humans. The usefulness of mouse models has been questioned because of irreproducibility and poor recapitulation of human conditions. Newer studies, however, point to bias in reporting results and improper data analysis as key factors that limit reproducibility and validity of preclinical mouse research. Inaccurate and incomplete descriptions of experimental conditions also contribute. Here, we provide guidance on best practice in mouse experimentation, focusing on appropriate selection and validation of the model, sources of variation and their influence on phenotypic outcomes, minimum requirements for control sets, and the importance of rigorous statistics. Our goal is to raise the standards in mouse disease modeling to enhance reproducibility, reliability and clinical translation of findings.

  9. Methods for Geometric Data Validation of 3d City Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D.; Alam, N.; Wewetzer, M.; Pries, M.; Coors, V.

    2015-12-01

    Geometric quality of 3D city models is crucial for data analysis and simulation tasks, which are part of modern applications of the data (e.g. potential heating energy consumption of city quarters, solar potential, etc.). Geometric quality in these contexts is however a different concept as it is for 2D maps. In the latter case, aspects such as positional or temporal accuracy and correctness represent typical quality metrics of the data. They are defined in ISO 19157 and should be mentioned as part of the metadata. 3D data has a far wider range of aspects which influence their quality, plus the idea of quality itself is application dependent. Thus, concepts for definition of quality are needed, including methods to validate these definitions. Quality on this sense means internal validation and detection of inconsistent or wrong geometry according to a predefined set of rules. A useful starting point would be to have correct geometry in accordance with ISO 19107. A valid solid should consist of planar faces which touch their neighbours exclusively in defined corner points and edges. No gaps between them are allowed, and the whole feature must be 2-manifold. In this paper, we present methods to validate common geometric requirements for building geometry. Different checks based on several algorithms have been implemented to validate a set of rules derived from the solid definition mentioned above (e.g. water tightness of the solid or planarity of its polygons), as they were developed for the software tool CityDoctor. The method of each check is specified, with a special focus on the discussion of tolerance values where they are necessary. The checks include polygon level checks to validate the correctness of each polygon, i.e. closeness of the bounding linear ring and planarity. On the solid level, which is only validated if the polygons have passed validation, correct polygon orientation is checked, after self-intersections outside of defined corner points and edges

  10. A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J

    2017-01-01

    The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of

  11. Experimental validation of a mathematical model for seabed liquefaction in waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sumer, B. Mutlu; Kirca, Özgür; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2011-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of an experimental study directed towards the validation of a mathematical model for the buildup of pore water pressure and resulting liquefaction of marine soils under progressive waves. Experiments were conducted under controlled conditions with silt ( d50 = 0.......070 mm) in a wave flume with a soil pit. Waves with wave heights in the range 7.7-18 cm with the water depth 55 cm and the wave period 1.6 s enabled us to study both the liquefaction and no-liquefaction regime pore water pressure buildup. The experimental data was used to validate the model. A numerical...

  12. Validity test and its consistency in the construction of patient loyalty model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanuar, Ferra

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this present study is to demonstrate the estimation of validity values and its consistency based on structural equation model. The method of estimation was then implemented to an empirical data in case of the construction the patient loyalty model. In the hypothesis model, service quality, patient satisfaction and patient loyalty were determined simultaneously, each factor were measured by any indicator variables. The respondents involved in this study were the patients who ever got healthcare at Puskesmas in Padang, West Sumatera. All 394 respondents who had complete information were included in the analysis. This study found that each construct; service quality, patient satisfaction and patient loyalty were valid. It means that all hypothesized indicator variables were significant to measure their corresponding latent variable. Service quality is the most measured by tangible, patient satisfaction is the most mesured by satisfied on service and patient loyalty is the most measured by good service quality. Meanwhile in structural equation, this study found that patient loyalty was affected by patient satisfaction positively and directly. Service quality affected patient loyalty indirectly with patient satisfaction as mediator variable between both latent variables. Both structural equations were also valid. This study also proved that validity values which obtained here were also consistence based on simulation study using bootstrap approach.

  13. WEC-SIM Phase 1 Validation Testing -- Numerical Modeling of Experiments: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruehl, Kelley; Michelen, Carlos; Bosma, Bret; Yu, Yi-Hsiang

    2016-08-01

    The Wave Energy Converter Simulator (WEC-Sim) is an open-source code jointly developed by Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It is used to model wave energy converters subjected to operational and extreme waves. In order for the WEC-Sim code to be beneficial to the wave energy community, code verification and physical model validation is necessary. This paper describes numerical modeling of the wave tank testing for the 1:33-scale experimental testing of the floating oscillating surge wave energy converter. The comparison between WEC-Sim and the Phase 1 experimental data set serves as code validation. This paper is a follow-up to the WEC-Sim paper on experimental testing, and describes the WEC-Sim numerical simulations for the floating oscillating surge wave energy converter.

  14. Validation of the replica trick for simple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2018-04-01

    We discuss the replica analytic continuation using several simple models in order to prove mathematically the validity of the replica analysis, which is used in a wide range of fields related to large-scale complex systems. While replica analysis consists of two analytical techniques—the replica trick (or replica analytic continuation) and the thermodynamical limit (and/or order parameter expansion)—we focus our study on replica analytic continuation, which is the mathematical basis of the replica trick. We apply replica analysis to solve a variety of analytical models, and examine the properties of replica analytic continuation. Based on the positive results for these models we propose that replica analytic continuation is a robust procedure in replica analysis.

  15. Development and validation of a full-range performance analysis model for a three-spool gas turbine with turbine cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Yin; Gu, Chun-wei; Ji, Xing-xing

    2015-01-01

    The performance analysis of a gas turbine is important for both its design and its operation. For modern gas turbines, the cooling flow introduces a noteworthy thermodynamic loss; thus, the determination of the cooling flow rate will clearly influence the accuracy of performance calculations. In this paper, a full-range performance analysis model is established for a three-spool gas turbine with an open-circuit convective blade cooling system. A hybrid turbine cooling model is embedded in the analysis to predict the amount of cooling air accurately and thus to remove the errors induced by the relatively arbitrary value of cooling air requirements in the previous research. The model is subsequently used to calculate the gas turbine performance; the calculation results are validated with detailed test data. Furthermore, multistage conjugate heat transfer analysis is performed for the turbine section. The results indicate that with the same coolant condition and flow rate as those in the performance analysis, the blade metal has been effectively cooled; in addition, the maximum temperature predicted by conjugate heat transfer analysis is close to the corresponding value in the cooling model. Hence, the present model provides an effective tool for analyzing the performance of a gas turbine with cooling. - Highlights: • We established a performance model for a gas turbine with convective cooling. • A hybrid turbine cooling model is embedded in the performance analysis. • The accuracy of the model is validated with detailed test data of the gas turbine. • Conjugate heat transfer analysis is performed for the turbine for verification

  16. On-line validation of linear process models using generalized likelihood ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-12-01

    A real-time method for testing the validity of linear models of nonlinear processes is described and evaluated. Using generalized likelihood ratios, the model dynamics are continually monitored to see if the process has moved far enough away from the nominal linear model operating point to justify generation of a new linear model. The method is demonstrated using a seventh-order model of a natural circulation steam generator

  17. Alternative socio-centric approach for model validation - a way forward for socio-hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Elshafei, Yasmina; Mahendran, Roobavannan; Kandasamy, Jaya; Pande, Saket; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2017-04-01

    one such avenue for validation, by using newspaper articles from the last 169 years to derive an index of economic development and environmental sustainability for the complete Murray-Darlin basin. Based on this alternative approach, the similar time periods as Kandasamy et al. (2014) were derived independently. Furthermore, their environmental sustainability index closely follows the parsimoniously modeled environmental awareness from Van Emmerik et al. (2014). Besides a direct validation of previous studies, this independent work provides credibility for the development and use of models such as those developed by Van Emmerik et al. (2014) and Elshafei et al. (2015). With this presentation, we aim to highlight how alternative sources of societal data can be used to independently validate and assess the realism of socio-hydrological models in spite of the fact that at least a significant part of the societal values has to remain endogenous, and only coupled socio-hydrological models of the Van Emmerik et al. (2014) and Elshafei et al. (2014, 2015) are indispensable for any generalization from highly monitored to unmonitored places, underpinned by general theories. References Elshafei, Y., et al. : "A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach." HESS, 2014. Elshafei, Y., et al. : "A model of the socio-hydrologic dynamics in a semiarid catchment: Isolating feedbacks in the coupled human-hydrology system", WRR, 2015. Kandasamy, J., et al. : "Socio-hydrologic drivers of the pendulum swing between agricultural development and environmental health: a case study from Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia." HESS, 2014. Van Emmerik, T., et al. : "Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia." HESS, 2014. Wei, et al.: "Evolution of the societal value of water resources for

  18. Calibration and validation of coarse-grained models of atomic systems: application to semiconductor manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Kathryn; Oden, J. Tinsley

    2014-07-01

    Coarse-grained models of atomic systems, created by aggregating groups of atoms into molecules to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, have been used for decades in important scientific and technological applications. In recent years, interest in developing a more rigorous theory for coarse graining and in assessing the predictivity of coarse-grained models has arisen. In this work, Bayesian methods for the calibration and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems in thermodynamic equilibrium are developed. For specificity, only configurational models of systems in canonical ensembles are considered. Among major challenges in validating coarse-grained models are (1) the development of validation processes that lead to information essential in establishing confidence in the model's ability predict key quantities of interest and (2), above all, the determination of the coarse-grained model itself; that is, the characterization of the molecular architecture, the choice of interaction potentials and thus parameters, which best fit available data. The all-atom model is treated as the "ground truth," and it provides the basis with respect to which properties of the coarse-grained model are compared. This base all-atom model is characterized by an appropriate statistical mechanics framework in this work by canonical ensembles involving only configurational energies. The all-atom model thus supplies data for Bayesian calibration and validation methods for the molecular model. To address the first challenge, we develop priors based on the maximum entropy principle and likelihood functions based on Gaussian approximations of the uncertainties in the parameter-to-observation error. To address challenge (2), we introduce the notion of model plausibilities as a means for model selection. This methodology provides a powerful approach toward constructing coarse-grained models which are most plausible for given all-atom data. We demonstrate the theory and

  19. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicated on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction. 43 refs

  20. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-09-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicted on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction

  1. Research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated, fractured rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, R.J.; Tidwell, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the Yucca Mountain Project, our research program to develop and validate conceptual models for flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock integrates fundamental physical experimentation with conceptual model formulation and mathematical modeling. Our research is directed toward developing and validating macroscopic, continuum-based models and supporting effective property models because of their widespread utility within the context of this project. Success relative to the development and validation of effective property models is predicted on a firm understanding of the basic physics governing flow through fractured media, specifically in the areas of unsaturated flow and transport in a single fracture and fracture-matrix interaction

  2. Prediction of early death among patients enrolled in phase I trials: development and validation of a new model based on platelet count and albumin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploquin, A; Olmos, D; Lacombe, D; A'Hern, R; Duhamel, A; Twelves, C; Marsoni, S; Morales-Barrera, R; Soria, J-C; Verweij, J; Voest, E E; Schöffski, P; Schellens, J H; Kramar, A; Kristeleit, R S; Arkenau, H-T; Kaye, S B; Penel, N

    2012-09-25

    Selecting patients with 'sufficient life expectancy' for Phase I oncology trials remains challenging. The Royal Marsden Hospital Score (RMS) previously identified high-risk patients as those with ≥ 2 of the following: albumin upper limit of normal; >2 metastatic sites. This study developed an alternative prognostic model, and compared its performance with that of the RMS. The primary end point was the 90-day mortality rate. The new model was developed from the same database as RMS, but it used Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID). The ROC characteristics of both methods were then validated in an independent database of 324 patients enrolled in European Organization on Research and Treatment of Cancer Phase I trials of cytotoxic agents between 2000 and 2009. The CHAID method identified high-risk patients as those with albumin model and RMS, respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) were similar for the CHAID model and RMS. The CHAID model and RMS provided a similarly high level of NPV, but the CHAID model gave a better accuracy in the validation set. Both CHAID model and RMS may improve the screening process in phase I trials.

  3. Approaches to Validation of Models for Low Gravity Fluid Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chato, David J.; Marchetta, Jeffery; Hochstein, John I.; Kassemi, Mohammad

    2005-01-01

    This paper details the author experiences with the validation of computer models to predict low gravity fluid behavior. It reviews the literature of low gravity fluid behavior as a starting point for developing a baseline set of test cases. It examines authors attempts to validate their models against these cases and the issues they encountered. The main issues seem to be that: Most of the data is described by empirical correlation rather than fundamental relation; Detailed measurements of the flow field have not been made; Free surface shapes are observed but through thick plastic cylinders, and therefore subject to a great deal of optical distortion; and Heat transfer process time constants are on the order of minutes to days but the zero-gravity time available has been only seconds.

  4. External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

    2012-01-01

    We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

  5. Modeling and Experimental Validation of an Islanded No-Inertia Microgrid Site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonfiglio, Andrea; Delfino, Federico; Labella, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a simple but effective model for no-inertia microgrids suitable to represent the instantaneous values of its meaningful electric variables, becoming a useful platform to test innovative control logics and energy management systems. The proposed model is validated against a more...

  6. Validation of Pressure Drop Models for PHWR-type Fuel Elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brasnarof Daniel; Daverio, H.

    2003-01-01

    In the present work an one-dimensional pressure drop analytical model and the COBRA code, are validated with experimental data of CANDU and Atucha fuel bundles in low and high pressure experimental test loops.Models have very good agreement with the experimental data, having less than 5 % of discrepancy. The analytical model results were compared with COBRA code results, having small difference between them in a wide range of pressure, temperature and mass flow

  7. Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mengshi; Lu, Xiulan; Hu, Li; Liu, Pingping; Zhao, Wenjiao; Yan, Haipeng; Tang, Liang; Zhu, Yimin; Xiao, Zhenghui; Chen, Lizhang; Tan, Hongzhuan

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial. We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities. According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively. The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients. PMID:28514310

  8. Validation of the GOES-16 magnetometer using multipoint measurements and magnetic field models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Califf, S.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Redmon, R. J.; Sarris, T. E.; Brito, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have been providing continuous geomagnetic field measurements for over 40 years. While the primary purpose of GOES is operational, the magnetometer data are also widely used in the scientific community. In an effort to validate the recently launched GOES-16 magnetometer, we compare the measurements to existing magnetic field models and other GOES spacecraft currently on orbit. There are four concurrent measurements from GOES-13, 14, 15 and 16 spanning 75W to 135W longitude. Also, GOES-13 is being replaced by GOES-16 in the GOES-East location, and during the transition, GOES-13 and GOES-16 will be parked nearby in order to assist with calibration of the new operational satellite. This work explores techniques to quantify the performance of the GOES-16 magnetometer by comparison to data from nearby spacecraft. We also build on previous work to assimilate in situ measurements with existing magnetic field models to assist in comparing data from different spatial locations. Finally, we use this unique dataset from four simultaneous geosynchronous magnetometer measurements and the close separation between GOES-13 and GOES-16 to study the spatial characteristics of ULF waves and other magnetospheric processes.

  9. Consistency, Verification, and Validation of Turbulence Models for Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2009-01-01

    In current practice, it is often difficult to draw firm conclusions about turbulence model accuracy when performing multi-code CFD studies ostensibly using the same model because of inconsistencies in model formulation or implementation in different codes. This paper describes an effort to improve the consistency, verification, and validation of turbulence models within the aerospace community through a website database of verification and validation cases. Some of the variants of two widely-used turbulence models are described, and two independent computer codes (one structured and one unstructured) are used in conjunction with two specific versions of these models to demonstrate consistency with grid refinement for several representative problems. Naming conventions, implementation consistency, and thorough grid resolution studies are key factors necessary for success.

  10. Development and validation of a viscoelastic and nonlinear liver model for needle insertion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Yo [Waseda University, Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Shinjuku, Tokyo (Japan); Onishi, Akinori; Hoshi, Takeharu; Kawamura, Kazuya [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan); Hashizume, Makoto [Kyushu University Hospital, Center for the Integration of Advanced Medicine and Innovative Technology, Fukuoka (Japan); Fujie, Masakatsu G. [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan)

    2009-01-15

    The objective of our work is to develop and validate a viscoelastic and nonlinear physical liver model for organ model-based needle insertion, in which the deformation of an organ is estimated and predicted, and the needle path is determined with organ deformation taken into consideration. First, an overview is given of the development of the physical liver model. The material properties of the liver considering viscoelasticity and nonlinearity are modeled based on the measured data collected from a pig's liver. The method to develop the liver model using FEM is also shown. Second, the experimental method to validate the model is explained. Both in vitro and in vivo experiments that made use of a pig's liver were conducted for comparison with the simulation using the model. Results of the in vitro experiment showed that the model reproduces nonlinear and viscoelastic response of displacement at an internally located point with high accuracy. For a force up to 0.45 N, the maximum error is below 1 mm. Results of the in vivo experiment showed that the model reproduces the nonlinear increase of load upon the needle during insertion. Based on these results, the liver model developed and validated in this work reproduces the physical response of a liver in both in vitro and in vivo situations. (orig.)

  11. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV OF UTAK

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  12. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spyrou, G.; Panayiotakis, G.; Bakas, A.; Tzanakos, G.

    1998-01-01

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors)

  13. Validation of Nonlinear Bipolar Transistor Model by Small-Signal Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidkjær, Jens; Porra, V.; Zhu, J.

    1992-01-01

    A new method for the validity analysis of nonlinear transistor models is presented based on DC-and small-signal S-parameter measurements and realistic consideration of the measurement and de-embedding errors and singularities of the small-signal equivalent circuit. As an example, some analysis...... results for an extended Gummel Poon model are presented in the case of a UHF bipolar power transistor....

  14. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  15. Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin A; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R

    2017-01-01

    A "credible" computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing "model credibility" is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a "threshold-based" validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results ("S") of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements ("D"). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student's t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student's t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be

  16. A validated dynamic model of the first marine molten carbonate fuel cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ovrum, E.; Dimopoulos, G.

    2012-01-01

    In this work we present a modular, dynamic and multi-dimensional model of a molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) onboard the offshore supply vessel “Viking Lady” serving as an auxiliary power unit. The model is able to capture detailed thermodynamic, heat transfer and electrochemical reaction phenomena within the fuel cell layers. The model has been calibrated and validated with measured performance data from a prototype installation onboard the vessel. The model is able to capture detailed thermodynamic, heat transfer and electrochemical reaction phenomena within the fuel cell layers. The model has been calibrated and validated with measured performance data from a prototype installation onboard the offshore supply vessel. The calibration process included parameter identification, sensitivity analysis to identify the critical model parameters, and iterative calibration of these to minimize the overall prediction error. The calibrated model has a low prediction error of 4% for the operating range of the cell, exhibiting at the same time a physically sound qualitative behavior in terms of thermodynamic heat transfer and electrochemical phenomena, both on steady-state and transient operation. The developed model is suitable for a wide range of studies covering the aspects of thermal efficiency, performance, operability, safety and endurance/degradation, which are necessary to introduce fuel cells in ships. The aim of this MCFC model is to aid to the introduction, design, concept approval and verification of environmentally friendly marine applications such as fuel cells, in a cost-effective, fast and safe manner. - Highlights: ► We model the first marine molten carbonate fuel cell auxiliary power unit. ► The model is distributed spatially and models both steady state and transients. ► The model is validated against experimental data. ► The paper illustrates how the model can be used in safety and reliability studies.

  17. Development and Validation of a Polarimetric-MCScene 3D Atmospheric Radiation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Alexander [Spectral Sciences, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Hawes, Frederick [Spectral Sciences, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Fox, Marsha [Spectral Sciences, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Polarimetric measurements can substantially enhance the ability of both spectrally resolved and single band imagery to detect the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, providing data for locating and identifying facilities, materials, and processes of undeclared and proliferant nuclear weapons programs worldwide. Unfortunately, models do not exist that efficiently and accurately predict spectral polarized signatures for the materials of interest embedded in complex 3D environments. Having such a model would enable one to test hypotheses and optimize both the enhancement of scene contrast and the signal processing for spectral signature extraction. The Phase I set the groundwork for development of fully validated polarimetric spectral signature and scene simulation models. This has been accomplished 1. by (a) identifying and downloading state-of-the-art surface and atmospheric polarimetric data sources, (b) implementing tools for generating custom polarimetric data, and (c) identifying and requesting US Government funded field measurement data for use in validation; 2. by formulating an approach for upgrading the radiometric spectral signature model MODTRAN to generate polarimetric intensities through (a) ingestion of the polarimetric data, (b) polarimetric vectorization of existing MODTRAN modules, and (c) integration of a newly developed algorithm for computing polarimetric multiple scattering contributions; 3. by generating an initial polarimetric model that demonstrates calculation of polarimetric solar and lunar single scatter intensities arising from the interaction of incoming irradiances with molecules and aerosols; 4. by developing a design and implementation plan to (a) automate polarimetric scene construction and (b) efficiently sample polarimetric scattering and reflection events, for use in a to be developed polarimetric version of the existing first-principles synthetic scene simulation model, MCScene; and 5. by planning a validation field

  18. Transient Model Validation of Fixed-Speed Induction Generator Using Wind Farm Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rogdakis, Georgios; Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Arana Aristi, Iván

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an electromagnetic transient model for fixed-speed wind turbines equipped with induction generators is developed and implemented in PSCAD/EMTDC. The model is comprised by: an induction generator, aerodynamic rotor, and a two-mass representation of the shaft system. Model validation...

  19. A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)

    2012-01-20

    The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.

  20. Explicit validation of a surface shortwave radiation balance model over snow-covered complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, N.; Löwe, H.; Mayer, B.; Lehning, M.

    2010-09-01

    A model that computes the surface radiation balance for all sky conditions in complex terrain is presented. The spatial distribution of direct and diffuse sky radiation is determined from observations of incident global radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at a single measurement location. Incident radiation under cloudless sky is spatially derived from a parameterization of the atmospheric transmittance. Direct and diffuse sky radiation for all sky conditions are obtained by decomposing the measured global radiation value. Spatial incident radiation values under all atmospheric conditions are computed by adjusting the spatial radiation values obtained from the parametric model with the radiation components obtained from the decomposition model at the measurement site. Topographic influences such as shading are accounted for. The radiosity approach is used to compute anisotropic terrain reflected radiation. Validations of the shortwave radiation balance model are presented in detail for a day with cloudless sky. For a day with overcast sky a first validation is presented. Validation of a section of the horizon line as well as of individual radiation components is performed with high-quality measurements. A new measurement setup was designed to determine terrain reflected radiation. There is good agreement between the measurements and the modeled terrain reflected radiation values as well as with incident radiation values. A comparison of the model with a fully three-dimensional radiative transfer Monte Carlo model is presented. That validation reveals a good agreement between modeled radiation values.

  1. Comparative calculations and validation studies with atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paesler-Sauer, J.

    1986-11-01

    This report presents the results of an intercomparison of different mesoscale dispersion models and measured data of tracer experiments. The types of models taking part in the intercomparison are Gaussian-type, numerical Eulerian, and Lagrangian dispersion models. They are suited for the calculation of the atmospherical transport of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. For the model intercomparison artificial meteorological situations were defined and corresponding arithmetical problems were formulated. For the purpose of model validation real dispersion situations of tracer experiments were used as input data for model calculations; in these cases calculated and measured time-integrated concentrations close to the ground are compared. Finally a valuation of the models concerning their efficiency in solving the problems is carried out by the aid of objective methods. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Groundwater Model Validation for the Project Shoal Area, Corrective Action Unit 447

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Ahmed [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences; Chapman, Jenny [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences; Lyles, Brad [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences

    2008-05-19

    Stoller has examined newly collected water level data in multiple wells at the Shoal site. On the basis of these data and information presented in the report, we are currently unable to confirm that the model is successfully validated. Most of our concerns regarding the model stem from two findings: (1) measured water level data do not provide clear evidence of a prevailing lateral flow direction; and (2) the groundwater flow system has been and continues to be in a transient state, which contrasts with assumed steady-state conditions in the model. The results of DRI's model validation efforts and observations made regarding water level behavior are discussed in the following sections. A summary of our conclusions and recommendations for a path forward are also provided in this letter report.

  3. MT3DMS: Model use, calibration, and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Hill, Mary C.; Cao, G.; Ma, R.

    2012-01-01

    MT3DMS is a three-dimensional multi-species solute transport model for solving advection, dispersion, and chemical reactions of contaminants in saturated groundwater flow systems. MT3DMS interfaces directly with the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW for the flow solution and supports the hydrologic and discretization features of MODFLOW. MT3DMS contains multiple transport solution techniques in one code, which can often be important, including in model calibration. Since its first release in 1990 as MT3D for single-species mass transport modeling, MT3DMS has been widely used in research projects and practical field applications. This article provides a brief introduction to MT3DMS and presents recommendations about calibration and validation procedures for field applications of MT3DMS. The examples presented suggest the need to consider alternative processes as models are calibrated and suggest opportunities and difficulties associated with using groundwater age in transport model calibration.

  4. Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

  5. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options With Validated Analysis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weitzel, E.; Hoeschele, M.

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. A full distribution system developed in TRNSYS has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. This study builds upon previous analysis modelling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. Of the configurations evaluated, distribution losses account for 13-29% of the total water heating energy use and water use efficiency ranges from 11-22%. The base case, an uninsulated trunk and branch system sees the most improvement in energy consumption by insulating and locating the water heater central to all fixtures. Demand recirculation systems are not projected to provide significant energy savings and in some cases increase energy consumption. Water use is most efficient with demand recirculation systems, followed by the insulated trunk and branch system with a central water heater. Compact plumbing practices and insulation have the most impact on energy consumption (2-6% for insulation and 3-4% per 10 gallons of enclosed volume reduced). The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  6. Validation of software releases for CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutsche, Oliver

    2010-01-01

    The CMS software stack currently consists of more than 2 Million lines of code developed by over 250 authors with a new version being released every week. CMS has setup a validation process for quality assurance which enables the developers to compare the performance of a release to previous releases and references. The validation process provides the developers with reconstructed datasets of real data and MC samples. The samples span the whole range of detector effects and important physics signatures to benchmark the performance of the software. They are used to investigate interdependency effects of all CMS software components and to find and fix bugs. The release validation process described here is an integral part of CMS software development and contributes significantly to ensure stable production and analysis. It represents a sizable contribution to the overall MC production of CMS. Its success emphasizes the importance of a streamlined release validation process for projects with a large code basis and significant number of developers and can function as a model for future projects.

  7. Probability of Detection (POD) as a statistical model for the validation of qualitative methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehling, Paul; LaBudde, Robert A; Brunelle, Sharon L; Nelson, Maria T

    2011-01-01

    A statistical model is presented for use in validation of qualitative methods. This model, termed Probability of Detection (POD), harmonizes the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. POD characterizes method response with respect to concentration as a continuous variable. The POD model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods. In addition, the model allows comparisons between candidate and reference methods, and provides calculations of repeatability, reproducibility, and laboratory effects from collaborative study data. Single laboratory study and collaborative study examples are given.

  8. Integral Reactor Containment Condensation Model and Experimental Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Qiao [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Corradini, Michael [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2016-05-02

    conditions, and predicted the prototypic containment performance under accidental conditions (UW-Madison). The results are applicable to integral Small Modular Reactor (SMR) designs, including NuScale, mPower, Westinghouse SMR, Holtec-160 and other integral reactors with small containments of relatively high pressures under accidental conditions. Testing has been conducted at the OrSU laboratory in the existing MASLWR (Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor) integral test facility sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Its highpressure stainless steel containment model (~2 MPa) is scaled to the NuScale SMR currently under development at NuScale Power, Inc.. Minor modifications to the model containment have been made to control the non-condensable gas fraction and to utilize the secondary loop stable steam flow for condensation testing. UW-Madison has developed a containment condensation model, which leveraged previous validated containment heat transfer work carried out at UW-Madison, and extended the range of applicability of the model to integral SMR designs that utilize containment vessels of high heat transfer efficiencies. In this final report, the research background and literature survey are presented in Chapter 2 and 3, respectively. The test facility description and modifications are summarized in Chapter 4, and the scaling analysis is introduced in Chapter 5. The tests description, procedures, and data analysis are presented in Chapter 6, while the numerical modeling is presented in Chapter 7, followed by a conclusion section in Chapter 8.

  9. Validation of models that predict Cesarean section after induction of labor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, C. J. M.; Oudenaarden, A.; Hermus, M. A. A.; Porath, M. M.; Oei, S. G.; Mol, B. W. J.

    2009-01-01

    Objective Models for the prediction of Cesarean delivery after induction of labor can be used to improve clinical decision-making. The objective of this study was to validate two existing models, published by Peregrine et al. and Rane et al., for the prediction of Cesarean section after induction of

  10. The Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale 2: Validation and test of the model to Facebook use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assunção, Raquel S; Matos, Paula Mena

    2017-01-01

    The main goals of the present study were to test the psychometric properties of a Portuguese version of the GPIUS2 (Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale 2, Caplan, 2010), and to test whether the cognitive-behavioral model proposed by Caplan (2010) replicated in the context of Facebook use. We used a sample of 761 Portuguese adolescents (53.7% boys, 46.3% girls, mean age = 15.8). Our results showed that the data presented an adequate fit to the original model using confirmatory factor analysis. The scale presented also good internal consistency and adequate construct validity. The cognitive-behavioral model was also applicable to the Facebook context, presenting good fit. Consistently with previous findings we found that preference for online social interaction and the use of Facebook to mood regulation purposes, predicted positively and significantly the deficient self-regulation in Facebook use, which in turn was a significant predictor of the negative outcomes associated with this use. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Calibration and validation of a general infiltration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Ranjan Kumar, Shashi; Singh, Vijay P.

    1999-08-01

    A general infiltration model proposed by Singh and Yu (1990) was calibrated and validated using a split sampling approach for 191 sets of infiltration data observed in the states of Minnesota and Georgia in the USA. Of the five model parameters, fc (the final infiltration rate), So (the available storage space) and exponent n were found to be more predictable than the other two parameters: m (exponent) and a (proportionality factor). A critical examination of the general model revealed that it is related to the Soil Conservation Service (1956) curve number (SCS-CN) method and its parameter So is equivalent to the potential maximum retention of the SCS-CN method and is, in turn, found to be a function of soil sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity. The general model was found to describe infiltration rate with time varying curve number.

  12. Validation of ASTEC v2.0 corium jet fragmentation model using FARO experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermsmeyer, S.; Pla, P.; Sangiorgi, M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Model validation base extended to six FARO experiments. • Focus on the calculation of the fragmented particle diameter. • Capability and limits of the ASTEC fragmentation model. • Sensitivity analysis of model outputs. - Abstract: ASTEC is an integral code for the prediction of Severe Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants. As such, it needs to cover all physical processes that could occur during accident progression, yet keeping its models simple enough for the ensemble to stay manageable and produce results within an acceptable time. The present paper is concerned with the validation of the Corium jet fragmentation model of ASTEC v2.0 rev3 by means of a selection of six experiments carried out within the FARO facility. The different conditions applied within these six experiments help to analyse the model behaviour in different situations and to expose model limits. In addition to comparing model outputs with experimental measurements, sensitivity analyses are applied to investigate the model. Results of the paper are (i) validation runs, accompanied by an identification of situations where the implemented fragmentation model does not match the experiments well, and discussion of results; (ii) its special attention to the models calculating the diameter of fragmented particles, the identification of a fault in one model implemented, and the discussion of simplification and ad hoc modification to improve the model fit; and, (iii) an investigation of the sensitivity of predictions towards inputs and parameters. In this way, the paper offers a thorough investigation of the merit and limitation of the fragmentation model used in ASTEC

  13. Evaluation of nonlinearity and validity of nonlinear modeling for complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Tomoya; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Suzuki, Masuo

    2007-10-01

    Even if an original time series exhibits nonlinearity, it is not always effective to approximate the time series by a nonlinear model because such nonlinear models have high complexity from the viewpoint of information criteria. Therefore, we propose two measures to evaluate both the nonlinearity of a time series and validity of nonlinear modeling applied to it by nonlinear predictability and information criteria. Through numerical simulations, we confirm that the proposed measures effectively detect the nonlinearity of an observed time series and evaluate the validity of the nonlinear model. The measures are also robust against observational noises. We also analyze some real time series: the difference of the number of chickenpox and measles patients, the number of sunspots, five Japanese vowels, and the chaotic laser. We can confirm that the nonlinear model is effective for the Japanese vowel /a/, the difference of the number of measles patients, and the chaotic laser.

  14. Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinelli, J.-P.; Gurley, K.R.; Subramanian, C.S.; Hamid, S.S.; Pita, G.L.

    2008-01-01

    The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies

  15. Experimental validation of TASS/SMR-S critical flow model for the integral reactor SMART

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Si Won; Ra, In Sik; Kim, Kun Yeup [ACT Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Young Jong [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    An advanced integral PWR, SMART (System- Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) is being developed in KAERI. It has a compact size and a relatively small power rating (330MWt) compared to a conventional reactor. Because new concepts are applied to SMART, an experimental and analytical validation is necessary for the safety evaluation of SMART. The analytical safety validation is being accomplished by a safety analysis code for an integral reactor, TASS/SMR-S developed by KAERI. TASS/SMR-S uses a lumped parameter one dimensional node and path modeling for the thermal hydraulic calculation and it uses point kinetics for the reactor power calculation. It has models for a general usage such as a core heat transfer model, a wall heat structure model, a critical flow model, component models, and it also has many SMART specific models such as an once through helical coiled steam generator model, and a condensate heat transfer model. To ensure that the TASS/SMR-S code has the calculation capability for the safety evaluation of SMART, the code should be validated for the specific models with the separate effect test experimental results. In this study, TASS/SMR-S critical flow model is evaluated as compared with SMD (Super Moby Dick) experiment

  16. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Univercity of Patras, School of Medicine, Medical Physics Department, 265 00 Patras (Greece); Bakas, A [Technological Educational Institution of Athens, Department of Radiography, 122 10 Athens (Greece); Tzanakos, G [University of Athens, Department of Physics, Divission of Nuclear and Particle Physics, 157 71 Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors) 16 refs, 4 figs

  17. Towards Model Validation and Verification with SAT Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Gogolla, Martin

    2010-01-01

    After sketching how system development and the UML (Unified Modeling Language) and the OCL (Object Constraint Language) are related, validation and verification with the tool USE (UML-based Specification Environment) is demonstrated. As a more efficient alternative for verification tasks, two approaches using SAT-based techniques are put forward: First, a direct encoding of UML and OCL with Boolean variables and propositional formulas, and second, an encoding employing an...

  18. Postpartum Bonding Disorder: Factor Structure, Validity, Reliability and a Model Comparison of the Postnatal Bonding Questionnaire in Japanese Mothers of Infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yukiko Ohashi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Negative attitudes of mothers towards their infant is conceptualized as postpartum bonding disorder, which leads to serious health problems in perinatal health care. However, its measurement still remains to be standardized. Our aim was to examine and confirm the psychometric properties of the Postnatal Bonding Questionnaire (PBQ in Japanese mothers. We distributed a set of questionnaires to community mothers and studied 392 mothers who returned the questionnaires at 1 month after childbirth. Our model was compared with three other models derived from previous studies. In a randomly halved sample, an exploratory factor analysis yielded a three-factor structure: Anger and Restrictedness, Lack of Affection, and Rejection and Fear. This factor structure was cross-validated by a confirmatory factor analysis using the other halved sample. The three subscales showed satisfactory internal consistency. The three PBQ subscale scores were correlated with depression and psychological abuse scores. Their test–retest reliability between day 5 and 1 month after childbirth was measured by intraclass correlation coefficients between 0.76 and 0.83. The Akaike Information Criteria of our model was better than the original four-factor model of Brockington. The present study indicates that the PBQ is a reliable and valid measure of bonding difficulties of Japanese mothers with neonates.

  19. External validation of a normal tissue complication probability model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in an independent cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønjom, Marianne F; Brink, Carsten; Bentzen, Søren M

    2015-01-01

    blood tests in the validation cohort relative to the original cohort. However, Pearson's correlation coefficients between model and clinical outcome were high: r = 0.97 estimated by the original model versus the original cohort, and r = 0.97 estimated by the original model versus the new cohort....... CONCLUSION: Dmean and Vthyroid were significant predictors of RIHT in both cohorts. The original NTCP model demonstrated external validity owing to high Pearson's correlation coefficients between estimated and observed incidence rates of RIHT in the original as well as in the validation cohort. This model...

  20. Developing and validating a model to predict the success of an IHCS implementation: the Readiness for Implementation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, David H; Hawkins, Robert P; Brennan, Patricia F; Dinauer, Susan; Johnson, Pauley R; Siegler, Tracy

    2010-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate the Readiness for Implementation Model (RIM). This model predicts a healthcare organization's potential for success in implementing an interactive health communication system (IHCS). The model consists of seven weighted factors, with each factor containing five to seven elements. Design Two decision-analytic approaches, self-explicated and conjoint analysis, were used to measure the weights of the RIM with a sample of 410 experts. The RIM model with weights was then validated in a prospective study of 25 IHCS implementation cases. Measurements Orthogonal main effects design was used to develop 700 conjoint-analysis profiles, which varied on seven factors. Each of the 410 experts rated the importance and desirability of the factors and their levels, as well as a set of 10 different profiles. For the prospective 25-case validation, three time-repeated measures of the RIM scores were collected for comparison with the implementation outcomes. Results Two of the seven factors, ‘organizational motivation’ and ‘meeting user needs,’ were found to be most important in predicting implementation readiness. No statistically significant difference was found in the predictive validity of the two approaches (self-explicated and conjoint analysis). The RIM was a better predictor for the 1-year implementation outcome than the half-year outcome. Limitations The expert sample, the order of the survey tasks, the additive model, and basing the RIM cut-off score on experience are possible limitations of the study. Conclusion The RIM needs to be empirically evaluated in institutions adopting IHCS and sustaining the system in the long term. PMID:20962135

  1. Validation of the Single-Factor Model of the Relationship Assessment Scale among Married and Cohabiting Persons from Monterrey, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Moral de la Rubia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The study of intimate partner relationships is particularly important because this union is the foundation of the family. Satisfaction with the relationship can be defined as the overall attitude to the relationship and the partner. The Hendrick's Relationship Assessment Scale (RAS is a instrument commonly used to assess the construct. Previous research papers have showed that this scale has high internal consistency and a single-factor structure. Although there are validation studies of the RAS, these studies used inappropriate statistical techniques to analyze its Likert-type items, and to determine the number of factors; likewise, its factor invariance across sex has not been previously contrasted. Therefore, this study posed the following research questions: Does the RAS have consistent and discriminating items? Basing the analysis on a polychoric correlation matrix, what is its level of internal consistency? How many factors emerge using rigorous empirical methods? Is the single-factor model invariant across sex? In order to answer these research questions, we used a random route probability sampling in this instrument validation study of the RAS. The sample was extracted from the population of married couples or the ones living in consensual union in Monterrey, Mexico. There were 431 female and 376 male participants in the study. The RAS’ items were consistent and discriminative. The internal consistency of the scale was excellent in the whole sample (ordinal α = .93, as well as among female (ordinal α = .94 and male participants (ordinal α = .92. Horn's parallel analysis and Velicer's  minimum average partial test suggested a one factor solution. Moreover, the single-factor model (with one correlation between the residuals of the two negatively worded items had a close fit to the data, and its properties of invariance across sex were very acceptable by the Unweighted Least Squares method. We conclude that the scale shows internal

  2. Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, C.A.M.; Heymans, M.W.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Rhenen, W.; Pallesen, S.; Bjorvatn, B.; Moen, B.E.; Mageroy, N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Methods Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by

  3. Assessing Religious Orientations: Replication and Validation of the Commitment-Reflectivity Circumplex (CRC Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven L. Isaak

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Commitment-Reflectivity Circumplex (CRC model is a structural model of religious orientation that was designed to help organize and clarify measurement of foundational aspect of religiousness. The current study successfully replicated the CRC model using multidimensional scaling, and further evaluated the reliability, structure, and validity of their measures in both a university student sample (Study 1 and a nationally representative sample (Study 2. All 10 subscales of the Circumplex Religious Orientation Inventory (CROI demonstrated good reliability across both samples. A two-week test-retest of the CROI showed that the subscales are stable over time. A confirmatory factor analysis of the CROI in the representative adult sample demonstrated good model fit. Finally, the CROI’s validity was examined in relation to the Intrinsic, Extrinsic and Quest measures. Overall, the CROI appears to clarify much of the ambiguity inherent in the established scales by breaking down what were very broad orientations into very specific suborientations. The results suggest that the CRC model is applicable for diverse populations of adults. In addition, the CROI appears to be construct valid with good structural and psychometric properties across all 10 subscales.

  4. Validation of the Saskatoon Falls Prevention Consortium's Falls Screening and Referral Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Sara Nicole; Zaluski, Neal; Petrie, Amanda; Arnold, Cathy; Basran, Jenny

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To investigate the concurrent validity of the Saskatoon Falls Prevention Consortium's Falls Screening and Referral Algorithm (FSRA). Method: A total of 29 older adults (mean age 77.7 [SD 4.0] y) residing in an independent-living senior's complex who met inclusion criteria completed a demographic questionnaire and the components of the FSRA and Berg Balance Scale (BBS). The FSRA consists of the Elderly Fall Screening Test (EFST) and the Multi-factor Falls Questionnaire (MFQ); it is designed to categorize individuals into low, moderate, or high fall-risk categories to determine appropriate management pathways. A predictive model for probability of fall risk, based on previous research, was used to determine concurrent validity of the FSRI. Results: The FSRA placed 79% of participants into the low-risk category, whereas the predictive model found the probability of fall risk to range from 0.04 to 0.74, with a mean of 0.35 (SD 0.25). No statistically significant correlation was found between the FSRA and the predictive model for probability of fall risk (Spearman's ρ=0.35, p=0.06). Conclusion: The FSRA lacks concurrent validity relative to to a previously established model of fall risk and appears to over-categorize individuals into the low-risk group. Further research on the FSRA as an adequate tool to screen community-dwelling older adults for fall risk is recommended. PMID:24381379

  5. Project on Elite Athlete Commitment (PEAK): III. An examination of the external validity across gender, and the expansion and clarification of the Sport Commitment Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlan, Tara K; Russell, David G; Magyar, T Michelle; Scanlan, Larry A

    2009-12-01

    The Sport Commitment Model was further tested using the Scanlan Collaborative Interview Method to examine its generalizability to New Zealand's elite female amateur netball team, the Silver Ferns. Results supported or clarified Sport Commitment Model predictions, revealed avenues for model expansion, and elucidated the functions of perceived competence and enjoyment in the commitment process. A comparison and contrast of the in-depth interview data from the Silver Ferns with previous interview data from a comparable elite team of amateur male athletes allowed assessment of model external validity, tested the generalizability of the underlying mechanisms, and separated gender differences from discrepancies that simply reflected team or idiosyncratic differences.

  6. Validation of a Hot Water Distribution Model Using Laboratory and Field Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backman, C. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, M. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Characterizing the performance of hot water distribution systems is a critical step in developing best practice guidelines for the design and installation of high performance hot water systems. Developing and validating simulation models is critical to this effort, as well as collecting accurate input data to drive the models. In this project, the Building America research team ARBI validated the newly developed TRNSYS Type 604 pipe model against both detailed laboratory and field distribution system performance data. Validation efforts indicate that the model performs very well in handling different pipe materials, insulation cases, and varying hot water load conditions. Limitations of the model include the complexity of setting up the input file and long simulation run times. This project also looked at recent field hot water studies to better understand use patterns and potential behavioral changes as homeowners convert from conventional storage water heaters to gas tankless units. The team concluded that the current Energy Factor test procedure overestimates typical use and underestimates the number of hot water draws, which has implications for both equipment and distribution system performance. Gas tankless water heaters were found to impact how people use hot water, but the data does not necessarily suggest an increase in usage. Further study in hot water usage and patterns is needed to better define these characteristics in different climates and home vintages.

  7. IVIM: modeling, experimental validation and application to animal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fournet, Gabrielle

    2016-01-01

    This PhD thesis is centered on the study of the IVIM ('Intravoxel Incoherent Motion') MRI sequence. This sequence allows for the study of the blood microvasculature such as the capillaries, arterioles and venules. To be sensitive only to moving groups of spins, diffusion gradients are added before and after the 180 degrees pulse of a spin echo (SE) sequence. The signal component corresponding to spins diffusing in the tissue can be separated from the one related to spins travelling in the blood vessels which is called the IVIM signal. These two components are weighted by f IVIM which represents the volume fraction of blood inside the tissue. The IVIM signal is usually modelled by a mono-exponential (ME) function and characterized by a pseudo-diffusion coefficient, D*. We propose instead a bi-exponential IVIM model consisting of a slow pool, characterized by F slow and D* slow corresponding to the capillaries as in the ME model, and a fast pool, characterized by F fast and D* fast, related to larger vessels such as medium-size arterioles and venules. This model was validated experimentally and more information was retrieved by comparing the experimental signals to a dictionary of simulated IVIM signals. The influence of the pulse sequence, the repetition time and the diffusion encoding time was also studied. Finally, the IVIM sequence was applied to the study of an animal model of Alzheimer's disease. (author) [fr

  8. Large-scale multimodal transport modelling. Part 2: Implementation and validation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Heerden, Q

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available their individual utilities using both time and cost elements. The agent-based model is run for the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area using multiple modes that include commercial vehicles. We validate the simulation results against regional traffic counts...

  9. Review and evaluation of performance measures for survival prediction models in external validation settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shafiqur Rahman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive

  10. The Safety Culture Enactment Questionnaire (SCEQ): Theoretical model and empirical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Borja López; Gracia, Francisco J; Tomás, Inés; Peiró, José M

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents the Safety Culture Enactment Questionnaire (SCEQ), designed to assess the degree to which safety is an enacted value in the day-to-day running of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SCEQ is based on a theoretical safety culture model that is manifested in three fundamental components of the functioning and operation of any organization: strategic decisions, human resources practices, and daily activities and behaviors. The extent to which the importance of safety is enacted in each of these three components provides information about the pervasiveness of the safety culture in the NPP. To validate the SCEQ and the model on which it is based, two separate studies were carried out with data collection in 2008 and 2014, respectively. In Study 1, the SCEQ was administered to the employees of two Spanish NPPs (N=533) belonging to the same company. Participants in Study 2 included 598 employees from the same NPPs, who completed the SCEQ and other questionnaires measuring different safety outcomes (safety climate, safety satisfaction, job satisfaction and risky behaviors). Study 1 comprised item formulation and examination of the factorial structure and reliability of the SCEQ. Study 2 tested internal consistency and provided evidence of factorial validity, validity based on relationships with other variables, and discriminant validity between the SCEQ and safety climate. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) carried out in Study 1 revealed a three-factor solution corresponding to the three components of the theoretical model. Reliability analyses showed strong internal consistency for the three scales of the SCEQ, and each of the 21 items on the questionnaire contributed to the homogeneity of its theoretically developed scale. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) carried out in Study 2 supported the internal structure of the SCEQ; internal consistency of the scales was also supported. Furthermore, the three scales of the SCEQ showed the expected correlation

  11. Wind resource modelling for micro-siting - Validation at a 60-MW wind farm site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, J C; Gylling Mortensen, N [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Said, U S [New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1999-03-01

    This paper investigates and validates the applicability of the WAsP-model for layout optimization and micro-siting of wind turbines at a given site for a 60-MW wind farm at Zafarana at the Gulf of Suez in Egypt. Previous investigations show large gradients in the wind climate within the area. For the design and optimization of the wind farm it was found necessary to verify the WAsP extrapolation of wind atlas results from 2 existing meteorological masts located 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. On-site measurements at the 3.5 x 3.5 km{sup 2} wind farm site in combination with 7 years of near-site wind atlas measurements offer significant amounts of data for verification of wind conditions for micro-siting. Wind speeds, wind directions, turbulence intensities and guests in 47.5 m a.g.l. have been measured at 9 locations across the site. Additionally, one of the site masts is equipped as a reference mast, measuring both vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature as well as air pressure and temperature. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that winds are highly uni-directional; the north direction accounting for 80-90% of the wind resource. The paper presents comparisons of 5 months of on-site measurements and modeled predictions from 2 existing meteorological masts located at distances of 5 and 10 km, respectively, from the wind farm site. Predictions based on terrain descriptions of the Wind Atlas for the Gulf of Suez 1991-95 showed over-predictions of wind speeds of 4-10%. With calibrated terrain descriptions, made based on measured data and a re-visit to critical parts of the terrain, the average prediction error of wind speeds was reduced to about 1%. These deviations are smaller than generally expected for such wind resource modeling, clearly documenting the validity of using WAsP modeling for micro-siting and layout optimization of the wind farm. (au)

  12. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  13. Development and validation of models for bubble coalescence and breakup. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Y.; Lucas, D.

    2013-02-01

    A new generalized model for bubble coalescence and breakup has been developed. It is based on physical considerations and takes into account various mechanisms that can lead to bubble coalescence and breakup. First, in a detailed literature review, the available models were compiled and analyzed. It turned out that many of them show a contradictory behaviour. None of these models allows the prediction of the evolution of bubble size distributions along a pipe flow for a wide range of combinations of flow rates of the gas and the liquid phase. The new model has been extensively studied in a simplified Test-Solver. Although this does not cover all details of a developing flow along the pipe, it allows - in contrast to a CFD code - to conduct a large number of variational calculations to investigate the influence of individual sizes and models. Coalescence and breakup cannot be considered separately from other phenomena and models that reflect these phenomena. There are close interactions with the turbulence of the liquid phase and the momentum exchange between phases. Since the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy is a direct input parameter for the new model, the turbulence modelling has been studied very carefully. To validate the model, a special experimental series for air-water flows was used, conducted at the TOPFLOW facility in an 8-meter long DN200 pipe. The data are characterized by high quality and were produced within the TOPFLOW-II project. The test series aims to provide a basis for the work presented here. Predicting the evolution of the bubble size distribution along the pipe could be improved significantly in comparison to the previous standard models for bubble coalescence and breakup implemented in CFX. However some quantitative discrepancies remain. The full model equations as well as an implementation as ''User-FORTRAN'' in CFX are available and can be used for further work on the simulation of poly-disperse bubbly flows.

  14. Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthelsen, Hanne; Hakanen, Jari J; Westerlund, Hugo

    2018-01-01

    This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model with aspects of work ability as outcome. The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345). The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling. This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A) The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B) Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C) Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources. In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field.

  15. A comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators: modelling, validation and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quant, Mario; Elizalde, Hugo; Flores, Abiud; Ramírez, Ricardo; Orta, Pedro; Song, Gangbing

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators (PAs), which accounts for hysteresis, non-linear electric field and dynamic effects. The hysteresis model is based on the widely used general Maxwell slip model, while an enhanced electro-mechanical non-linear model replaces the linear constitutive equations commonly used. Further on, a linear second order model compensates the frequency response of the actuator. Each individual model is fully characterized from experimental data yielded by a specific PA, then incorporated into a comprehensive 'direct' model able to determine the output strain based on the applied input voltage, fully compensating the aforementioned effects, where the term 'direct' represents an electrical-to-mechanical operating path. The 'direct' model was implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment and successfully validated via experimental results, exhibiting higher accuracy and simplicity than many published models. This simplicity would allow a straightforward inclusion of other behaviour such as creep, ageing, material non-linearity, etc, if such parameters are important for a particular application. Based on the same formulation, two other models are also presented: the first is an 'alternate' model intended to operate within a force-controlled scheme (instead of a displacement/position control), thus able to capture the complex mechanical interactions occurring between a PA and its host structure. The second development is an 'inverse' model, able to operate within an open-loop control scheme, that is, yielding a 'linearized' PA behaviour. The performance of the developed models is demonstrated via a numerical sample case simulated in Matlab/Simulink, consisting of a PA coupled to a simple mechanical system, aimed at shifting the natural frequency of the latter

  16. Validation of infrared thermography in serotonin-induced itch model in rats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dagnæs-Hansen, Frederik; Jasemian, Yousef; Gazerani, Parisa

    The number of scratching bouts is generally used as a standard method in animal models of itch. The aim of the present study was to validate the application of infrared thermography (IR-Th) in a serotonin-induced itch model in rats. Adult Sprague-Dawley male rats (n = 24) were used in 3 consecuti...

  17. Developing and Validating a Survival Prediction Model for NSCLC Patients Through Distributed Learning Across 3 Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochems, Arthur; Deist, Timo M; El Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Chuck; Reeves, Jackson; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Ten Haken, Randall; van Soest, Johan; Oberije, Cary; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

    2017-10-01

    Tools for survival prediction for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiation or radiation therapy are of limited quality. In this work, we developed a predictive model of survival at 2 years. The model is based on a large volume of historical patient data and serves as a proof of concept to demonstrate the distributed learning approach. Clinical data from 698 lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent with chemoradiation or radiation therapy alone, were collected and stored at 2 different cancer institutes (559 patients at Maastro clinic (Netherlands) and 139 at Michigan university [United States]). The model was further validated on 196 patients originating from The Christie (United Kingdon). A Bayesian network model was adapted for distributed learning (the animation can be viewed at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJFOxpwqEA). Two-year posttreatment survival was chosen as the endpoint. The Maastro clinic cohort data are publicly available at https://www.cancerdata.org/publication/developing-and-validating-survival-prediction-model-nsclc-patients-through-distributed, and the developed models can be found at www.predictcancer.org. Variables included in the final model were T and N category, age, performance status, and total tumor dose. The model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 on the external validation set and an AUC of 0.62 on a 5-fold cross validation. A model based on the T and N category performed with an AUC of 0.47 on the validation set, significantly worse than our model (PLearning the model in a centralized or distributed fashion yields a minor difference on the probabilities of the conditional probability tables (0.6%); the discriminative performance of the models on the validation set is similar (P=.26). Distributed learning from federated databases allows learning of predictive models on data originating from multiple institutions while avoiding many of the data-sharing barriers. We believe that

  18. Validation of a 2-D semi-coupled numerical model for fluid-structure-seabed interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jianhong; Jeng, Dongsheng; Wang, Ren; Zhu, Changqi

    2013-10-01

    A 2-D semi-coupled model PORO-WSSI 2D (also be referred as FSSI-CAS 2D) for the Fluid-Structure-Seabed Interaction (FSSI) has been developed by employing RANS equations for wave motion in fluid domain, VARANS equations for porous flow in porous structures; and taking the dynamic Biot's equations (known as "u - p" approximation) for soil as the governing equations. The finite difference two-step projection method and the forward time difference method are adopted to solve the RANS, VARANS equations; and the finite element method is adopted to solve the "u - p" approximation. A data exchange port is developed to couple the RANS, VARANS equations and the dynamic Biot's equations together. The analytical solution proposed by Hsu and Jeng (1994) and some experiments conducted in wave flume or geotechnical centrifuge in which various waves involved are used to validate the developed semi-coupled numerical model. The sandy bed involved in these experiments is poro-elastic or poro-elastoplastic. The inclusion of the interaction between fluid, marine structures and poro-elastoplastic seabed foundation is a special point and highlight in this paper, which is essentially different with other previous coupled models The excellent agreement between the numerical results and the experiment data indicates that the developed coupled model is highly reliablefor the FSSI problem.

  19. The development and validation of a numerical integration method for non-linear viscoelastic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramo, Nicole L.; Puttlitz, Christian M.

    2018-01-01

    Compelling evidence that many biological soft tissues display both strain- and time-dependent behavior has led to the development of fully non-linear viscoelastic modeling techniques to represent the tissue’s mechanical response under dynamic conditions. Since the current stress state of a viscoelastic material is dependent on all previous loading events, numerical analyses are complicated by the requirement of computing and storing the stress at each step throughout the load history. This requirement quickly becomes computationally expensive, and in some cases intractable, for finite element models. Therefore, we have developed a strain-dependent numerical integration approach for capturing non-linear viscoelasticity that enables calculation of the current stress from a strain-dependent history state variable stored from the preceding time step only, which improves both fitting efficiency and computational tractability. This methodology was validated based on its ability to recover non-linear viscoelastic coefficients from simulated stress-relaxation (six strain levels) and dynamic cyclic (three frequencies) experimental stress-strain data. The model successfully fit each data set with average errors in recovered coefficients of 0.3% for stress-relaxation fits and 0.1% for cyclic. The results support the use of the presented methodology to develop linear or non-linear viscoelastic models from stress-relaxation or cyclic experimental data of biological soft tissues. PMID:29293558

  20. Validation of periodontitis screening model using sociodemographic, systemic, and molecular information in a Korean population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Duck; Sukhbaatar, Munkhzaya; Shin, Myungseop; Ahn, Yoo-Been; Yoo, Wook-Sung

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to evaluate and validate a periodontitis screening model that includes sociodemographic, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and molecular information, including gingival crevicular fluid (GCF), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and blood cytokines. The authors selected 506 participants from the Shiwha-Banwol cohort: 322 participants from the 2005 cohort for deriving the screening model and 184 participants from the 2007 cohort for its validation. Periodontitis was assessed by dentists using the community periodontal index. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α in blood and MMP-8, -9, and -13 in GCF were assayed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. MetS was assessed by physicians using physical examination and blood laboratory data. Information about age, sex, income, smoking, and drinking was obtained by interview. Logistic regression analysis was applied to finalize the best-fitting model and validate the model using sensitivity, specificity, and c-statistics. The derived model for periodontitis screening had a sensitivity of 0.73, specificity of 0.85, and c-statistic of 0.86 (P validated model were 0.64, 0.91, and 0.83 (P <0.001), respectively. The model that included age, sex, income, smoking, drinking, and blood and GCF biomarkers could be useful in screening for periodontitis. A future prospective study is indicated for evaluating this model's ability to predict the occurrence of periodontitis.

  1. Lactic Acid Recovery in Electro-Enhanced Dialysis: Modelling and Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prado Rubio, Oscar Andres; Jørgensen, Sten Bay; Jonsson, Gunnar Eigil

    2009-01-01

    and migration across the boundary layers and membranes. The model is validated for Donnan dialysis recovery of different monoprotic carboxylic acids. Simulations are used to evaluate the potential enhancement of lactate fluxes under current load conditions, referred as Electro-Enhanced Dialysis operation...

  2. Validation Testing of a Peridynamic Impact Damage Model Using NASA's Micro-Particle Gun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baber, Forrest E.; Zelinski, Brian J.; Guven, Ibrahim; Gray, Perry

    2017-01-01

    Through a collaborative effort between the Virginia Commonwealth University and Raytheon, a peridynamic model for sand impact damage has been developed1-3. Model development has focused on simulating impacts of sand particles on ZnS traveling at velocities consistent with aircraft take-off and landing speeds. The model reproduces common features of impact damage including pit and radial cracks, and, under some conditions, lateral cracks. This study focuses on a preliminary validation exercise in which simulation results from the peridynamic model are compared to a limited experimental data set generated by NASA's recently developed micro-particle gun (MPG). The MPG facility measures the dimensions and incoming and rebound velocities of the impact particles. It also links each particle to a specific impact site and its associated damage. In this validation exercise parameters of the peridynamic model are adjusted to fit the experimentally observed pit diameter, average length of radial cracks and rebound velocities for 4 impacts of 300 µm glass beads on ZnS. Results indicate that a reasonable fit of these impact characteristics can be obtained by suitable adjustment of the peridynamic input parameters, demonstrating that the MPG can be used effectively as a validation tool for impact modeling and that the peridynamic sand impact model described herein possesses not only a qualitative but also a quantitative ability to simulate sand impact events.

  3. In silico modelling and validation of differential expressed proteins in lung cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhagavathi S

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The present study aims predict the three dimensional structure of three major proteins responsible for causing Lung cancer. Methods: These are the differentially expressed proteins in lung cancer dataset. Initially, the structural template for these proteins is identified from structural database using homology search and perform homology modelling approach to predict its native 3D structure. Three-dimensional model obtained was validated using Ramachandran plot analysis to find the reliability of the model. Results: Four proteins were differentially expressed and were significant proteins in causing lung cancer. Among the four proteins, Matrixmetallo proteinase (P39900 had a known 3D structure and hence was not considered for modelling. The remaining proteins Polo like kinase I Q58A51, Trophinin B1AKF1, Thrombomodulin P07204 were modelled and validated. Conclusions: The three dimensional structure of proteins provides insights about the functional aspect and regulatory aspect of the protein. Thus, this study will be a breakthrough for further lung cancer related studies.

  4. Validation and Application of Models to Predict Facemask Influenza Contamination in Healthcare Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Edward M.; Noti, John D.; Lindsley, William G.; Blachere, Francoise M.; Shaffer, Ronald E.

    2015-01-01

    Facemasks are part of the hierarchy of interventions used to reduce the transmission of respiratory pathogens by providing a barrier. Two types of facemasks used by healthcare workers are N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) and surgical masks (SMs). These can become contaminated with respiratory pathogens during use, thus serving as potential sources for transmission. However, because of the lack of field studies, the hazard associated with pathogen-exposed facemasks is unknown. A mathematical model was used to calculate the potential influenza contamination of facemasks from aerosol sources in various exposure scenarios. The aerosol model was validated with data from previous laboratory studies using facemasks mounted on headforms in a simulated healthcare room. The model was then used to estimate facemask contamination levels in three scenarios generated with input parameters from the literature. A second model estimated facemask contamination from a cough. It was determined that contamination levels from a single cough (≈19 viruses) were much less than likely levels from aerosols (4,473 viruses on FFRs and 3,476 viruses on SMs). For aerosol contamination, a range of input values from the literature resulted in wide variation in estimated facemask contamination levels (13–202,549 viruses), depending on the values selected. Overall, these models and estimates for facemask contamination levels can be used to inform infection control practice and research related to the development of better facemasks, to characterize airborne contamination levels, and to assist in assessment of risk from reaerosolization and fomite transfer because of handling and reuse of contaminated facemasks. PMID:24593662

  5. Multiphysics software and the challenge to validating physical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses multi physics software and validation of physical models in the nuclear industry. The major challenge is to convert the general purpose software package to a robust application-specific solution. This requires greater knowledge of the underlying solution techniques and the limitations of the packages. Good user interfaces and neat graphics do not compensate for any deficiencies

  6. Application of environmental isotopes to validate a model of regional groundwater flow and transport (Carrizo Aquifer)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearson, F.J.

    1999-01-01

    It is asserted that models cannot be validated. This seems obvious if one identifies validation as the process of testing a model against absolute truth, and accepts that absolute truth is less a scientific than a philosophic or religious concept. What is here called model validation has a more modest goal - to develop confidence in the conceptual and mathematical models used to describe a groundwater system by illustrating that measured radiochemical properties of the groundwater match those predicted by the model. The system described is the Carrizo sand in the Gulf Coastal Plain of south Texas. Each element of the modelling chain describing the movement of 14 C is confirmed independently and, thus, can be said to be validated. The groundwater ages, and the 14 C measurements and carbonate geochemical model underlying them, are confirmed by the noble gas measurements, while the flow and transport model is confirmed by the 14 C results. Agreement between the modelled and measured 234 U/ 238 U ratios supports the description of U transport used in the modelling, while the need to use an unexpectedly low K D value for U raises questions about the applicability of laboratory K D data to the Carrizo groundwater system. (author)

  7. Validation of multi-body modelling methodology for reconfigurable underwater robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, M.C.; Eidsvik, O. A.; Blanke, Mogens

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the problem of employing reconfigurable robots in an underwater setting. The main results presented is the experimental validation of a modelling methodology for a system consisting of N dynamically connected robots with heterogeneous dynamics. Two distinct types...... of experiments are performed, a series of hydrostatic free-decay tests and a series of open-loop trajectory tests. The results are compared to a simulation based on the modelling methodology. The modelling methodology shows promising results for usage with systems composed of reconfigurable underwater modules...

  8. Validation study of safety assessment model for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munakata, Masahiro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-12-01

    The JAERI-AECL collaboration research program has been conducted to validate a groundwater flow and radionuclide transport models for safety assessment. JAERI have developed a geostatistical model for radionuclide transport through a heterogeneous geological media and verify using experimental results of field tracer tests. The simulated tracer plumes explain favorably the experimental tracer plumes. A regional groundwater flow and transport model using site-scale parameter obtained from tracer tests have been verified by comparing simulation results with observation ones of natural environmental tracer. (author)

  9. Method for Pre-Conditioning a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidick, Erkin

    2012-01-01

    This software allows one to up-sample or down-sample a measured surface map for model validation, not only without introducing any re-sampling errors, but also eliminating the existing measurement noise and measurement errors. Because the re-sampling of a surface map is accomplished based on the analytical expressions of Zernike-polynomials and a power spectral density model, such re-sampling does not introduce any aliasing and interpolation errors as is done by the conventional interpolation and FFT-based (fast-Fourier-transform-based) spatial-filtering method. Also, this new method automatically eliminates the measurement noise and other measurement errors such as artificial discontinuity. The developmental cycle of an optical system, such as a space telescope, includes, but is not limited to, the following two steps: (1) deriving requirements or specs on the optical quality of individual optics before they are fabricated through optical modeling and simulations, and (2) validating the optical model using the measured surface height maps after all optics are fabricated. There are a number of computational issues related to model validation, one of which is the "pre-conditioning" or pre-processing of the measured surface maps before using them in a model validation software tool. This software addresses the following issues: (1) up- or down-sampling a measured surface map to match it with the gridded data format of a model validation tool, and (2) eliminating the surface measurement noise or measurement errors such that the resulted surface height map is continuous or smoothly-varying. So far, the preferred method used for re-sampling a surface map is two-dimensional interpolation. The main problem of this method is that the same pixel can take different values when the method of interpolation is changed among the different methods such as the "nearest," "linear," "cubic," and "spline" fitting in Matlab. The conventional, FFT-based spatial filtering method used to

  10. External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-08-01

    Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

  11. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  12. Alteration of 'R7T7' type nuclear glasses: statistical approach, experimental validation, local evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thierry, F.

    2003-02-01

    The aim of this work is to propose an evolution of nuclear (R7T7-type) glass alteration modeling. The first part of this thesis is about development and validation of the 'r(t)' model. This model which predicts the decrease of alteration rates in confined conditions is based upon a coupling between a first-order dissolution law and a diffusion barrier effect of the alteration gel layer. The values and the uncertainties regarding the main adjustable parameters of the model (α, Dg and C*) have been determined from a systematic study of the available experimental data. A program called INVERSION has been written for this purpose. This work lead to characterize the validity domain of the 'r(t)' model and to parametrize it. Validation experiments have been undertaken, confirming the validity of the parametrization over 200 days. A new model is proposed in the second part of this thesis. It is based on an inhibition of glass dissolution reaction by silicon coupled with a local description of silicon retention in the alteration gel layer. This model predicts the evolutions of boron and silicon concentrations in solution as well as the concentrations and retention profiles in the gel layer. These predictions have been compared to measurements of retention profiles by the secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) method. The model has been validated on fractions of gel layer which reactivity present low or moderate disparities. (author)

  13. Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

    2017-11-01

    The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

  14. Validation of the dynamic model for a pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwingelstein, Gilles.

    1979-01-01

    Dynamic model validation is a necessary procedure to assure that the developed empirical or physical models are satisfactorily representing the dynamic behavior of the actual plant during normal or abnormal transients. For small transients, physical models which represent isolated core, isolated steam generator and the overall pressurized water reactor are described. Using data collected during the step power changes that occured during the startup procedures, comparisons of experimental and actual transients are given at 30% and 100% of full power. The agreement between the transients derived from the model and those recorded on the plant indicates that the developed models are well suited for use for functional or control studies

  15. Published diagnostic models safely excluded colorectal cancer in an independent primary care validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elias, Sjoerd G; Kok, Liselotte; Witteman, Ben J M; Goedhard, Jelle G; Romberg-Camps, Mariëlle J L; Muris, Jean W M; de Wit, Niek J; Moons, Karel G M

    OBJECTIVE: To validate published diagnostic models for their ability to safely reduce unnecessary endoscopy referrals in primary care patients suspected of significant colorectal disease. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Following a systematic literature search, we independently validated the identified

  16. Validation process of simulation model; Proceso de validacion de modelos de simulacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Isidro Pindado, M J

    1998-12-31

    It is presented a methodology on empirical about any detailed simulation model. This kind of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparison between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posteriori experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: - Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. - Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. - Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, ESP studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author)

  17. Validation process of simulation model; Proceso de validacion de modelos de simulacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Isidro Pindado, M.J.

    1997-12-31

    It is presented a methodology on empirical about any detailed simulation model. This kind of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparison between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posteriori experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: - Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. - Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. - Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, ESP studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author)

  18. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of

  19. Stakeholder validation of a model of readiness for transition to adult care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Lisa A; Brumley, Lauren D; Tuchman, Lisa K; Barakat, Lamia P; Hobbie, Wendy L; Ginsberg, Jill P; Daniel, Lauren C; Kazak, Anne E; Bevans, Katherine; Deatrick, Janet A

    2013-10-01

    That too few youth with special health care needs make the transition to adult-oriented health care successfully may be due, in part, to lack of readiness to transfer care. There is a lack of theoretical models to guide development and implementation of evidence-based guidelines, assessments, and interventions to improve transition readiness. To further validate the Social-ecological Model of Adolescent and Young Adult Readiness to Transition (SMART) via feedback from stakeholders (patients, parents, and providers) from a medically diverse population in need of life-long follow-up care, survivors of childhood cancer. Mixed-methods participatory research design. A large Mid-Atlantic children's hospital. Adolescent and young adult survivors of childhood cancer (n = 14), parents (n = 18), and pediatric providers (n = 10). Patients and parents participated in focus groups; providers participated in individual semi-structured interviews. Validity of SMART was assessed 3 ways: (1) ratings on importance of SMART components for transition readiness using a 5-point scale (0-4; ratings >2 support validity), (2) nominations of 3 "most important" components, and (3) directed content analysis of focus group/interview transcripts. Qualitative data supported the validity of SMART, with minor modifications to definitions of components. Quantitative ratings met criteria for validity; stakeholders endorsed all components of SMART as important for transition. No additional SMART variables were suggested by stakeholders and the "most important" components varied by stakeholders, thus supporting the comprehensiveness of SMART and need to involve multiple perspectives. SMART represents a comprehensive and empirically validated framework for transition research and program planning, supported by survivors of childhood cancer, parents, and pediatric providers. Future research should validate SMART among other populations with special health care needs.

  20. Software Process Validation: Quantitatively Measuring the Correspondence of a Process to a Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cook, Jonathan E; Wolf, Alexander L

    1997-01-01

    .... When process models and process executions diverge, something significant is happening. The authors have developed techniques for uncovering and measuring the discrepancies between models and executions, which they call process validation...

  1. Determination and validation of mTOR kinase-domain 3D structure by homology modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lakhlili W

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Wiame Lakhlili,1 Gwénaël Chevé,2 Abdelaziz Yasri,2 Azeddine Ibrahimi1 1Laboratoire de Biotechnologie (MedBiotech, Faculté de Médecine et de Pharmacie de Rabat, Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Rabat, Morroco; 2OriBase Pharma, Cap Gamma, Parc Euromédecine, Montpellier, France Abstract: The AKT/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR pathway is considered as one of the commonly activated and deregulated signaling pathways in human cancer. mTOR is associated with other proteins in two molecular complexes: mTOR complex 1/Raptor and the mTOR complex 2/Rictor. Using the crystal structure of the related lipid kinase PI3Kγ, we built a model of the catalytic region of mTOR. The modeling of the three-dimensional (3D structure of the mTOR was performed by homology modeling program SWISS-MODEL. The quality and validation of the obtained model were performed using PROCHECK and PROVE softwares. The overall stereochemical property of the protein was assessed by the Ramachandran plot. The model validation was also done by docking of known inhibitors. In this paper, we describe and validate a 3D model for the mTOR catalytic site.Keywords: mTOR, homology modeling, mTOR kinase-domain, docking

  2. Modeling validation to structural flaws in the foundations of oil tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couto, Larissa Goncalves; Leite, Sandro Passos

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the modeling of an experiment used to study the application of backscattered neutrons in the identification of structural flaws in the foundations of oil tanks. This modeling was a preliminary validation procedure of the method of calculation, performed with the radiation transport code MCNP, to study the application of backscattered neutrons as inspection tool. (author)

  3. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weathers, J.B.; Luck, R.; Weathers, J.W.

    2009-01-01

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  4. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weathers, J.B. [Shock, Noise, and Vibration Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: James.Weathers@ngc.com; Luck, R. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mississippi State University, 210 Carpenter Engineering Building, P.O. Box ME, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5925 (United States)], E-mail: Luck@me.msstate.edu; Weathers, J.W. [Structural Analysis Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: Jeffrey.Weathers@ngc.com

    2009-11-15

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  5. Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio

    2017-12-01

    In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe

  6. Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio

    2018-06-01

    In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe

  7. Modelling of the activity system - development of an evaluation method for integrated system validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norros, Leena; Savioja, Paula

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we present our recent research which focuses on creating an evaluation method for human-system interfaces of complex systems. The method is aimed for use in the validation of modernised nuclear power plant (NPP) control rooms, and other complex systems with high reliability requirements. The task in validation is to determine whether the human-system functions safely and effectively. This question can be operationalized to the selection of relevant operational features and their appropriate acceptance criteria. Thus, there is a need to ensure that the results of the evaluation can be generalized so that they serve the purpose of integrated system validation. The definition of the appropriate acceptance criteria provides basis for the judgement of the appropriateness of the performance of the system. We propose that the operational situations and the acceptance criteria should be defined based on modelling of the NPP operation that is comprehended as an activity system. We developed a new core-tasks modelling framework. It is a formative modelling approach that combines causal, functional and understanding explanations of system performance. In this paper we reason how modelling can be used as a medium to determine the validity of the emerging control room system. (Author)

  8. Towards practical application of sensors for monitoring animal health; design and validation of a model to detect ketosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steensels, Machteld; Maltz, Ephraim; Bahr, Claudia; Berckmans, Daniel; Antler, Aharon; Halachmi, Ilan

    2017-05-01

    The objective of this study was to design and validate a mathematical model to detect post-calving ketosis. The validation was conducted in four commercial dairy farms in Israel, on a total of 706 multiparous Holstein dairy cows: 203 cows clinically diagnosed with ketosis and 503 healthy cows. A logistic binary regression model was developed, where the dependent variable is categorical (healthy/diseased) and a set of explanatory variables were measured with existing commercial sensors: rumination duration, activity and milk yield of each individual cow. In a first validation step (within-farm), the model was calibrated on the database of each farm separately. Two thirds of the sick cows and an equal number of healthy cows were randomly selected for model validation. The remaining one third of the cows, which did not participate in the model validation, were used for model calibration. In order to overcome the random selection effect, this procedure was repeated 100 times. In a second (between-farms) validation step, the model was calibrated on one farm and validated on another farm. Within-farm accuracy, ranging from 74 to 79%, was higher than between-farm accuracy, ranging from 49 to 72%, in all farms. The within-farm sensitivities ranged from 78 to 90%, and specificities ranged from 71 to 74%. The between-farms sensitivities ranged from 65 to 95%. The developed model can be improved in future research, by employing other variables that can be added; or by exploring other models to achieve greater sensitivity and specificity.

  9. In vivo 3D modeling of the femoropopliteal artery in human subjects based on x-ray angiography: Methodology and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, Andrew J.; Casserly, Ivan P.; Messenger, John C.; Carroll, John D.; Chen, S.-Y. James

    2009-01-01

    Endovascular revascularization of the femoropopliteal (FP) artery has been limited by high rates of restenosis and stent fracture. The unique physical forces that are applied to the FP artery during leg movement have been implicated in these phenomena. The foundation for measuring the effects of physical forces on the FP artery in a clinically relevant environment is based on the ability to develop 3D models of this vessel in different leg positions in vivo in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). By acquiring paired angiographic images of the FP artery, and using angiography-based 3D modeling algorithms previously validated in the coronary arteries, the authors generated 3D models of ten FP arteries in nine patients with PAD with the lower extremity in straight leg (SL) and crossed leg (CL) positions. Due to the length of the FP artery, overlapping paired angiographic images of the entire FP artery were required to image the entire vessel, which necessitated the development of a novel fusion process in order to generate a 3D model of the entire FP artery. The methodology of angiographic acquisition and 3D model generation of the FP artery is described. In a subset of patients, a third angiographic view (i.e., validation view) was acquired in addition to the standard paired views for the purpose of validating the 3D modeling process. The mean root-mean-square (rms) error of the point-to-point distances between the centerline of the main FP artery from the 2D validation view and the centerline from the 3D model placed in the validation view for the SL and CL positions were 0.93±0.19 mm and 1.12±0.25 mm, respectively. Similarly, the mean rms error of the same comparison for the main FP artery and sidebranches for the SL and CL positions were 1.09±0.38 mm and 1.21±0.25 mm, respectively. A separate validation of the novel fusion process was performed by comparing the 3D model of the FP artery derived from fusion of 3D models of adjacent FP segments with

  10. Validation of a functional model for integration of safety into process system design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, J.; Lind, M.; Zhang, X.

    2015-01-01

    with the process system functionalities as required for the intended safety applications. To provide the scientific rigor and facilitate the acceptance of qualitative modelling, this contribution focuses on developing a scientifically based validation method for functional models. The Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM...

  11. A multibody motorcycle model with rigid-ring tyres: formulation and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, Luca; Mancinelli, Nicolò

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this paper is the development and validation of a three-dimensional multibody motorcycle model including a rigid-ring tyre model, taking into account both the slopes and elevation of the road surface. In order to achieve accurate assessment of ride and handling performances of a road racing motorcycle, a tyre model capable of reproducing the dynamic response to actual road excitation is required. While a number of vehicle models with such feature are available for car application, the extension to the motorcycle modelling has not been addressed yet. To do so, a novel parametrisation for the general motorcycle kinematics is proposed, using a mixed reference point and relative coordinates approach. The resulting description, developed in terms of dependent coordinates, makes it possible to include the rigid-ring kinematics as well as road elevation and slopes, without affecting computational efficiency. The equations of motion for the whole multibody system are derived symbolically and the constraint equations arising from the dependent coordinate formulation are handled using the position and velocity vector projection technique. The resulting system of equations is integrated in time domain using a standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) algorithm. Finally, the model is validated with respect to experimentally measured data in both time and frequency domains.

  12. Turbulence-induced bubble collision force modeling and validation in adiabatic two-phase flow using CFD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Subash L., E-mail: sharma55@purdue.edu [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1290 (United States); Hibiki, Takashi; Ishii, Mamoru [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1290 (United States); Brooks, Caleb S. [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Schlegel, Joshua P. [Nuclear Engineering Program, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409 (United States); Liu, Yang [Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Buchanan, John R. [Bechtel Marine Propulsion Corporation, Bettis Laboratory, West Mifflin, PA 15122 (United States)

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • Void distribution in narrow rectangular channel with various non-uniform inlet conditions. • Modeling of void diffusion due to bubble collision force. • Validation of new modeling in adiabatic air–water two-phase flow in a narrow channel. - Abstract: The prediction capability of the two-fluid model for gas–liquid dispersed two-phase flow depends on the accuracy of the closure relations for the interfacial forces. In previous studies of two-phase flow Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), interfacial force models for a single isolated bubble has been extended to disperse two-phase flow assuming the effect in a swarm of bubbles is similar. Limited studies have been performed investigating the effect of the bubble concentration on the lateral phase distribution. Bubbles, while moving through the liquid phase, may undergo turbulence-driven random collision with neighboring bubbles without significant coalescence. The rate of these collisions depends upon the bubble approach velocity and bubble spacing. The bubble collision frequency is expected to be higher in locations with higher bubble concentrations, i.e., volume fraction. This turbulence-driven random collision causes the diffusion of the bubbles from high concentration to low concentration. Based on experimental observations, a phenomenological model has been developed for a “turbulence-induced bubble collision force” for use in the two-fluid model. For testing the validity of the model, two-phase flow data measured at Purdue University are utilized. The geometry is a 10 mm × 200 mm cross section channel. Experimentally, non-uniform inlet boundary conditions are applied with different sparger combinations to vary the volume fraction distribution across the wider dimension. Examining uniform and non-uniform inlet data allows for the influence of the volume fraction to be studied as a separate effect. The turbulence-induced bubble collision force has been implemented in ANSYS CFX. The

  13. Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)

    2017-05-24

    Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).

  14. Simulated training in colonoscopic stenting of colonic strictures: validation of a cadaver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iordache, F; Bucobo, J C; Devlin, D; You, K; Bergamaschi, R

    2015-07-01

    There are currently no available simulation models for training in colonoscopic stent deployment. The aim of this study was to validate a cadaver model for simulation training in colonoscopy with stent deployment for colonic strictures. This was a prospective study enrolling surgeons at a single institution. Participants performed colonoscopic stenting on a cadaver model. Their performance was assessed by two independent observers. Measurements were performed for quantitative analysis (time to identify stenosis, time for deployment, accuracy) and a weighted score was devised for assessment. The Mann-Whitney U-test and Student's t-test were used for nonparametric and parametric data, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used for reliability. Twenty participants performed a colonoscopy with deployment of a self-expandable metallic stent in two cadavers (groups A and B) with 20 strictures overall. The median time was 206 s. The model was able to differentiate between experts and novices (P = 0. 013). The results showed a good consensus estimate of reliability, with kappa = 0.571 (P cadaver model described in this study has content, construct and concurrent validity for simulation training in colonoscopic deployment of self-expandable stents for colonic strictures. Further studies are needed to evaluate the predictive validity of this model in terms of skill transfer to clinical practice. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  15. Experimental validation of models for Plasma Focus devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Palomino, Luis; Gonzalez, Jose; Clausse, Alejandro

    2003-01-01

    Plasma Focus(PF) Devices are thermonuclear pulsators that produce short pulsed radiation (X-ray, charged particles and neutrons). Since Filippov and Mather, investigations have been used to study plasma properties. Nowadays the interest about PF is focused in technology applications, related to the use of these devices as pulsed neutron sources. In the numerical calculus the Inter institutional PLADEMA (PLAsmas DEnsos MAgnetizados) network is developing three models. Each one is useful in different engineering stages of the Plasma Focus design. One of the main objectives in this work is a comparative study on the influence of the different parameters involved in each models. To validate these results, several experimental measurements under different geometry and initial conditions were performed. (author)

  16. Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

    2018-03-01

    The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.

  17. Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanne Berthelsen

    Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R model with aspects of work ability as outcome.The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345. The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling.This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources.In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field.

  18. Assessment and validation of the CAESAR predictive model for bioconcentration factor (BCF in fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Chiara

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bioconcentration factor (BCF describes the behaviour of a chemical in terms of its likelihood of concentrating in organisms in the environment. It is a fundamental property in recent regulations, such as the European Community Regulation on chemicals and their safe use or the Globally Harmonized System for classification, labelling and packaging. These new regulations consider the possibility of reducing or waiving animal tests using alternative methods, such as in silico methods. This study assessed and validated the CAESAR predictive model for BCF in fish. Results To validate the model, new experimental data were collected and used to create an external set, as a second validation set (a first validation exercise had been done just after model development. The performance of the model was compared with BCFBAF v3.00. For continuous values and for classification purposes the CAESAR BCF model gave better results than BCFBAF v3.00 for the chemicals in the applicability domain of the model. R2 and Q2 were good and accuracy in classification higher than 90%. Applying an offset of 0.5 to the compounds predicted with BCF close to the thresholds, the number of false negatives (the most dangerous errors dropped considerably (less than 0.6% of chemicals. Conclusions The CAESAR model for BCF is useful for regulatory purposes because it is robust, reliable and predictive. It is also fully transparent and documented and has a well-defined applicability domain, as required by REACH. The model is freely available on the CAESAR web site and easy to use. The reliability of the model reporting the six most similar compounds found in the CAESAR dataset, and their experimental and predicted values, can be evaluated.

  19. Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes. (letter)

  20. Validation of the HCM Risk-SCD model in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy following alcohol septal ablation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liebregts, Max; Faber, Lothar; Jensen, Morten K

    2018-01-01

    Aims: The HCM Risk-SCD model for prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy recommended by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines has not been validated after septal reduction therapy. The aim of this study was to validate the HCM Risk-SCD model...

  1. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...

  2. Smooth particle hydrodynamic modeling and validation for impact bird substitution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babu, Arun; Prasad, Ganesh

    2018-04-01

    Bird strike events incidentally occur and can at times be fatal for air frame structures. Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) and such other ones mandates aircrafts to be modeled to withstand various levels of bird hit damages. The subject matter of this paper is numerical modeling of a soft body geometry for realistically substituting an actual bird for carrying out simulations of bird hit on target structures. Evolution of such a numerical code to effect an actual bird behavior through impact is much desired for making use of the state of the art computational facilities in simulating bird strike events. Validity, of simulations depicting bird hits, is largely dependent on the correctness of the bird model. In an impact, a set of complex and coupled dynamic interaction exists between the target and the impactor. To simplify this problem, impactor response needs to be decoupled from that of the target. This can be done by assuming and modeling the target as noncompliant. Bird is assumed as fluidic in a impact. Generated stresses in the bird body are significant than its yield stresses. Hydrodynamic theory is most ideal for describing this problem. Impactor literally flows steadily over the target for most part of this problem. The impact starts with an initial shock and falls into a radial release shock regime. Subsequently a steady flow is established in the bird body and this phase continues till the whole length of the bird body is turned around. Initial shock pressure and steady state pressure are ideal variables for comparing and validating the bird model. Spatial discretization of the bird is done using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. This Discrete Element Model (DEM) offers significant advantages over other contemporary approaches. Thermodynamic state variable relations are established using Polynomial Equation of State (EOS). ANSYS AUTODYN is used to perform the explicit dynamic simulation of the impact event. Validation of the shock and steady

  3. First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty

    2017-04-01

    Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position

  4. Establishment and validation of the model of molten pool in fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Shufeng; Luo Rui; Wang Zhou; Shi Xiaobo; Yang Xianyong

    2007-01-01

    Running under the beyond design base accidental condition, sodium boiling and dry-out will soon be brought about in LMFBR. If not stopped timely, the fuel pins of the subassembly will be melt and broken to form a molten pool at the bottom of the subassembly. to present a reasonable analysis about the molten pool accident, a method of establishing model according to the mechanism is selected, by which an integral model of the molten pool is established. Validated on the three power groups of BF1 experiments which belong to the France SCARABEE series experimenters, the model shows good results. After compared with the models of GEYSER and BF2 experiments which had been validated before, some conclusions about mechanism of molten pool are derived. Moreover, through comparing the relative parameters such as the discharged heat and the increment of temperature etc., a reasonable analysis about the type of heat transfer is present, on the basis of which some conclusions are derived as well. (authors)

  5. Measuring Students' Motivation: Validity Evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brett D.; Skaggs, Gary

    2016-01-01

    This study provides validity evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory (MUSIC Inventory; Jones, 2012), which measures college students' beliefs related to the five components of the MUSIC Model of Motivation (MUSIC model; Jones, 2009). The MUSIC model is a conceptual framework for five categories of teaching strategies (i.e.,…

  6. Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

    2018-02-01

    Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

  7. Developing and Validating the Socio-Technical Model in Ontology Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silalahi, Mesnan; Indra Sensuse, Dana; Giri Sucahyo, Yudho; Fadhilah Akmaliah, Izzah; Rahayu, Puji; Cahyaningsih, Elin

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes results from an attempt to develop a model in ontology engineering methodology and a way to validate the model. The approach to methodology in ontology engineering is from the point view of socio-technical system theory. Qualitative research synthesis is used to build the model using meta-ethnography. In order to ensure the objectivity of the measurement, inter-rater reliability method was applied using a multi-rater Fleiss Kappa. The results show the accordance of the research output with the diamond model in the socio-technical system theory by evidence of the interdependency of the four socio-technical variables namely people, technology, structure and task.

  8. Summarized presentation of the numerical model used for the pressurizer of a light water nuclear reactor. Description and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siarry, P.

    1981-12-01

    The pressurizer model is first described together with its coupling to the nuclear unit. The different stages involved in the validation are then presented: validation of overall qualitative behavior; validation of the open loop pressurizer model; validation of the various units for controlling pressures and levels; simulation of two large transients (Bugey plant) [fr

  9. Validation of High Displacement Piezoelectric Actuator Finite Element Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taleghani, B. K.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents the results obtained by using NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Regitered Trademark) finite element codes to predict doming of the THUNDER piezoelectric actuators during the manufacturing process and subsequent straining due to an applied input voltage. To effectively use such devices in engineering applications, modeling and characterization are essential. Length, width, dome height, and thickness are important parameters for users of such devices. Therefore, finite element models were used to assess the effects of these parameters. NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Registered Trademark) used different methods for modeling piezoelectric effects. In NASTRAN(Registered Trademark), a thermal analogy was used to represent voltage at nodes as equivalent temperatures, while ANSYS(Registered Trademark) processed the voltage directly using piezoelectric finite elements. The results of finite element models were validated by using the experimental results.

  10. Experimental Validation and Model Verification for a Novel Geometry ICPC Solar Collector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perers, Bengt; Duff, William S.; Daosukho, Jirachote

    A novel geometry ICPC solar collector was developed at the University of Chicago and Colorado State University. A ray tracing model has been designed to investigate the optical performance of both the horizontal and vertical fin versions of this collector. Solar radiation is modeled as discrete...... to the desired incident angle of the sun’s rays, performance of the novel ICPC solar collector at various specified angles along the transverse and longitudinal evacuated tube directions were experimentally determined. To validate the ray tracing model, transverse and longitudinal performance predictions...... at the corresponding specified incident angles are compared to the Sandia results. A 100 m2 336 Novel ICPC evacuated tube solar collector array has been in continuous operation at a demonstration project in Sacramento California since 1998. Data from the initial operation of the array are used to further validate...

  11. Validating Cross-Perspective Topic Modeling for Extracting Political Parties' Positions from Parliamentary Proceedings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaan, J.M.; Marx, M.; Kamps, J.; Kaminka, G.A.; Fox, M.; Bouquet, P.; Hüllermeyer, E.; Dignum, V.; Dignum, F.; van Harmelen, F.

    2016-01-01

    In the literature, different topic models have been introduced that target the task of viewpoint extraction. Because, generally, these studies do not present thorough validations of the models they introduce, it is not clear in advance which topic modeling technique will work best for our use case

  12. Development of the Galaxy Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Model Using Data from ECLIPSE: Internal Validation of a Linked-Equations Cohort Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Andrew H; Baker, Timothy; Risebrough, Nancy A; Chambers, Mike; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Ismaila, Afisi S; Exuzides, Alex; Colby, Chris; Tabberer, Maggie; Muellerova, Hana; Locantore, Nicholas; Rutten van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Lomas, David A

    2017-05-01

    The recent joint International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research / Society for Medical Decision Making Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force emphasized the importance of conceptualizing and validating models. We report a new model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (part of the Galaxy project) founded on a conceptual model, implemented using a novel linked-equation approach, and internally validated. An expert panel developed a conceptual model including causal relationships between disease attributes, progression, and final outcomes. Risk equations describing these relationships were estimated using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study, with costs estimated from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study. Implementation as a linked-equation model enabled direct estimation of health service costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for COPD patients over their lifetimes. Internal validation compared 3 years of predicted cohort experience with ECLIPSE results. At 3 years, the Galaxy COPD model predictions of annual exacerbation rate and annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second fell within the ECLIPSE data confidence limits, although 3-year overall survival was outside the observed confidence limits. Projections of the risk equations over time permitted extrapolation to patient lifetimes. Averaging the predicted cost/QALY outcomes for the different patients within the ECLIPSE cohort gives an estimated lifetime cost of £25,214 (undiscounted)/£20,318 (discounted) and lifetime QALYs of 6.45 (undiscounted/5.24 [discounted]) per ECLIPSE patient. A new form of model for COPD was conceptualized, implemented, and internally validated, based on a series of linked equations using epidemiological data (ECLIPSE) and cost data (TORCH). This Galaxy model predicts COPD outcomes from treatment effects on disease attributes such as lung function

  13. Design of an intermediate-scale experiment to validate unsaturated- zone transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, M.D.; Hopkins, P.L.; Glass, R.J.; Ward, D.B.

    1991-01-01

    An intermediate-scale experiment is being carried out to evaluate instrumentation and models that might be used for transport-model validation for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project. The experimental test bed is a 6-m high x 3-m diameter caisson filled with quartz sand with a sorbing layer at an intermediate depth. The experiment involves the detection and prediction of the migration of fluid and tracers through an unsaturated porous medium. Pre-test design requires estimation of physical properties of the porous medium such as the relative permeability, saturation/pressure relations, porosity, and saturated hydraulic conductivity as well as geochemical properties such as surface complexation constants and empircial K d 'S. The pre-test characterization data will be used as input to several computer codes to predict the fluid flow and tracer migration. These include a coupled chemical-reaction/transport model, a stochastic model, and a deterministic model using retardation factors. The calculations will be completed prior to elution of the tracers, providing a basis for validation by comparing the predictions to observed moisture and tracer behavior

  14. Validation of Symptom Validity Tests Using a "Child-model" of Adult Cognitive Impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, A.; Spaan, P. E. J.; Schmand, B.

    2010-01-01

    Validation studies of symptom validity tests (SVTs) in children are uncommon. However, since children's cognitive abilities are not yet fully developed, their performance may provide additional support for the validity of these measures in adult populations. Four SVTs, the Test of Memory Malingering

  15. Validity of thermally-driven small-scale ventilated filling box models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Jamie L.; Linden, P. F.

    2013-11-01

    The majority of previous work studying building ventilation flows at laboratory scale have used saline plumes in water. The production of buoyancy forces using salinity variations in water allows dynamic similarity between the small-scale models and the full-scale flows. However, in some situations, such as including the effects of non-adiabatic boundaries, the use of a thermal plume is desirable. The efficacy of using temperature differences to produce buoyancy-driven flows representing natural ventilation of a building in a small-scale model is examined here, with comparison between previous theoretical and new, heat-based, experiments.

  16. Modeling and experimental validation of a Hybridized Energy Storage System for automotive applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorenti, Simone; Guanetti, Jacopo; Guezennec, Yann; Onori, Simona

    2013-11-01

    This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a dynamic model of a Hybridized Energy Storage System (HESS) consisting of a parallel connection of a lead acid (PbA) battery and double layer capacitors (DLCs), for automotive applications. The dynamic modeling of both the PbA battery and the DLC has been tackled via the equivalent electric circuit based approach. Experimental tests are designed for identification purposes. Parameters of the PbA battery model are identified as a function of state of charge and current direction, whereas parameters of the DLC model are identified for different temperatures. A physical HESS has been assembled at the Center for Automotive Research The Ohio State University and used as a test-bench to validate the model against a typical current profile generated for Start&Stop applications. The HESS model is then integrated into a vehicle simulator to assess the effects of the battery hybridization on the vehicle fuel economy and mitigation of the battery stress.

  17. Validation of a Novel Traditional Chinese Medicine Pulse Diagnostic Model Using an Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anson Chui Yan Tang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of lacking a quantifiable traditional Chinese medicine (TCM pulse diagnostic model, a novel TCM pulse diagnostic model was introduced to quantify the pulse diagnosis. Content validation was performed with a panel of TCM doctors. Criterion validation was tested with essential hypertension. The gold standard was brachial blood pressure measured by a sphygmomanometer. Two hundred and sixty subjects were recruited (139 in the normotensive group and 121 in the hypertensive group. A TCM doctor palpated pulses at left and right cun, guan, and chi points, and quantified pulse qualities according to eight elements (depth, rate, regularity, width, length, smoothness, stiffness, and strength on a visual analog scale. An artificial neural network was used to develop a pulse diagnostic model differentiating essential hypertension from normotension. Accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity were compared among various diagnostic models. About 80% accuracy was attained among all models. Their specificity and sensitivity varied, ranging from 70% to nearly 90%. It suggested that the novel TCM pulse diagnostic model was valid in terms of its content and diagnostic ability.

  18. Validation of symptom validity tests using a "child-model" of adult cognitive impairments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, A.; Spaan, P.E.J.; Schmand, B.

    2010-01-01

    Validation studies of symptom validity tests (SVTs) in children are uncommon. However, since children’s cognitive abilities are not yet fully developed, their performance may provide additional support for the validity of these measures in adult populations. Four SVTs, the Test of Memory Malingering

  19. Modelling the fate of sulphur-35 in crops. 2. Development and validation of the CROPS-35 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Chris; Cunningham, Nathan

    2005-01-01

    Gas-cooled nuclear power plants in the UK release sulphur-35 during their routine operation, which can be readily assimilated by vegetation. It is therefore necessary to be able to model the uptake of such releases in order to quantify any potential contamination of the food chain. A model is described which predicts the concentration of 35 S in crop components following an aerial gaseous release. Following deposition the allocation to crop components is determined by an export function from a labile pool, the leaves, to those components growing most actively post exposure. The growth rates are determined by crop growth data, which is also used to determine the concentration. The loss of activity is controlled by radioactive decay only. The paper describes the calibration and the validation of the model. To improve the model, further experimental work is required particularly on the export kinetics of 35 S. It may be possible to adapt such a modelling approach to the prediction of crop content for gaseous releases of 3 H and 14 C from nuclear facilities. - The calibration and validation of a model for the prediction of the fate of 35 S in vegetation is described

  20. Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung

    2017-12-01

    This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.