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Sample records for previously unobserved confounders

  1. Quantitative assessment of unobserved confounding is mandatory in nonrandomized intervention studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenwold, R H H; Hak, E; Hoes, A W

    OBJECTIVE: In nonrandomized intervention studies unequal distribution of patient characteristics in the groups under study may hinder comparability of prognosis and therefore lead to confounding bias. Our objective was to review methods to control for observed confounding, as well as unobserved

  2. An introduction to sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding in nonexperimental prevention research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiwei; Kuramoto, S Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A

    2013-12-01

    Despite the fact that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are often left to be answered through nonexperimental studies because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most nonexperimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example, we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring's risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall, the association between maternal suicide and offspring's hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for nonexperimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from nonexperimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policy makers regarding potential intervention targets.

  3. An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis for Unobserved Confounding in Non-Experimental Prevention Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuramoto, S. Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Despite that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are left to be answered through non-experimental studies often because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most non-experimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for non-experimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from non-experimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policymakers regarding potential intervention targets. PMID:23408282

  4. Do time-invariant confounders explain away the association between job stress and workers' mental health? Evidence from Japanese occupational panel data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oshio, Takashi; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Inoue, Akiomi

    2015-02-01

    It is well known that job stress is negatively related to workers' mental health, but most recent studies have not controlled for unobserved time-invariant confounders. In the current study, we attempted to validate previous observations on the association between job stress and workers' mental health, by removing the effects of unobserved time-invariant confounders. We used data from three to four waves of an occupational Japanese cohort survey, focusing on 31,382 observations of 9741 individuals who participated in at least two consecutive waves. We estimated mean-centered fixed effects models to explain psychological distress in terms of the Kessler 6 (K6) scores (range: 0-24) by eight job stress indicators related to the job demands-control, effort-reward imbalance, and organizational injustice models. Mean-centered fixed effects models reduced the magnitude of the association between jobs stress and K6 scores to 44.8-54.2% of those observed from pooled ordinary least squares. However, the association remained highly significant even after controlling for unobserved time-invariant confounders for all job stress indicators. In addition, alternatively specified models showed the robustness of the results. In all, we concluded that the validity of major job stress models, which link job stress and workers' mental health, was robust, although unobserved time-invariant confounders led to an overestimation of the association. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Local Amenities, Unobserved Quality, and Market Clearing: Adjusting Teacher Compensation to Provide Equal Education Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Bradford; Berman, Matthew; Hill, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    Local school districts differ in their ability to pay for teacher quality, and in the amenities they offer as places to live and work. Market clearing with heterogeneous quality yields geographically varying teacher salary levels that confound scarcity with unobserved differences in quality. The paper discusses identification and estimation of a…

  6. Sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding of direct and indirect effects using uncertainty intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindmark, Anita; de Luna, Xavier; Eriksson, Marie

    2018-05-10

    To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data, strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should always be accompanied by a sensitivity analysis of the resulting estimates. In this article, we propose a sensitivity analysis method for parametric estimation of direct and indirect effects when the exposure, mediator, and outcome are all binary. The sensitivity parameters consist of the correlations between the error terms of the exposure, mediator, and outcome models. These correlations are incorporated into the estimation of the model parameters and identification sets are then obtained for the direct and indirect effects for a range of plausible correlation values. We take the sampling variability into account through the construction of uncertainty intervals. The proposed method is able to assess sensitivity to both mediator-outcome confounding and confounding involving the exposure. To illustrate the method, we apply it to a mediation study based on the data from the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke). An R package that implements the proposed method is available. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Wage Differentials in the Presence of Unobserved Worker, Firm, and Match Heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Woodcock, Simon

    2006-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating and decomposing wage differentials in the presence of unobserved worker, firm, and match heterogeneity. Controlling for these unobservables corrects omitted variable bias in previous studies. It also allows us to measure the contribution of unmeasured characteristics of workers, firms, and worker-firm matches to observed wage differentials. An application to linked employer-employee data shows that decompositions of inter-industry earnings differentials a...

  8. The Unobservability Thesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    The unobservability thesis (UT) states that the mental states of other people are unobservable. Both defenders and critics of UT seem to assume that UT has important implications for the mindreading debate. Roughly, the former argue that because UT is true, mindreaders need to infer the mental...... implications for the mindreading debate. On the other line of interpretation, UT may matter to the mindreading debate, in particular if we think of it as a thesis about the possible contents of perceptual experience. The upshot is that those who believe UT has implications for the mindreading debate need...... to be more specific about how they understand the thesis....

  9. Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias Wh...

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias When Using Medicare Prescription Drug Data Unobservable exposure time is common among Medicare Part D beneficiaries,...

  10. Retrieving Unobserved Consideration Sets from Household Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Nierop, Erjen; Bronnenberg, Bart; Paap, Richard; Wedel, Michel; Franses, Philip Hans

    The authors propose a new model to capture unobserved consideration from discrete choice data. This approach allows for unobserved dependence in consideration among brands, easily copes with many brands, and accommodates different effects of the marketing mix on consideration and choice as well as

  11. How to talk about unobservables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, F.A.; van Fraassen, B.C.

    2008-01-01

    In this journal, Dicken & Lipton [2006] argued, following Musgrave [1985], that a constructive empiricist cannot coherently draw the distinction between observable objects (events, processes, …) and unobservable ones. We argue to the contrary: the distinction can be drawn coherently, but add a

  12. Observed and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Duration Dependency Parameter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosholm, Michael

    2000-01-01

    We present a duration model, which allows for non-homogenous duration dependence with respect to observed and unobserved variables. The model is examined in a simulation study, and it is estimated on unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. Udgivelsesdato: MAR......We present a duration model, which allows for non-homogenous duration dependence with respect to observed and unobserved variables. The model is examined in a simulation study, and it is estimated on unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. Udgivelsesdato: MAR...

  13. Unobservable Effects and Business Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Jacobson

    1990-01-01

    While “unobservable” factors such as corporate culture, access to scarce resources, management skill, and luck can be postulated to be principal determinants of business success, their effects are all but ignored in studies of business performance. This study, making use of the PIMS data base, reports empirical evidence indicating that failure to control for unobservable factors influencing profitability both biases and exaggerates the effect of strategic factors. Indeed, the influence of uno...

  14. Nonparametric estimation in models for unobservable heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Hohmann, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric models which allow for data with unobservable heterogeneity are studied. The first publication introduces new estimators and their asymptotic properties for conditional mixture models. The second publication considers estimation of a function from noisy observations of its Radon transform in a Gaussian white noise model.

  15. Repeat immigration: A previously unobserved source of heterogeneity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aradhya, Siddartha; Scott, Kirk; Smith, Christopher D

    2017-07-01

    Register data allow for nuanced analyses of heterogeneities between sub-groups which are not observable in other data sources. One heterogeneity for which register data is particularly useful is in identifying unique migration histories of immigrant populations, a group of interest across disciplines. Years since migration is a commonly used measure of integration in studies seeking to understand the outcomes of immigrants. This study constructs detailed migration histories to test whether misclassified migrations may mask important heterogeneities. In doing so, we identify a previously understudied group of migrants called repeat immigrants, and show that they differ systematically from permanent immigrants. In addition, we quantify the degree to which migration information is misreported in the registers. The analysis is carried out in two steps. First, we estimate income trajectories for repeat immigrants and permanent immigrants to understand the degree to which they differ. Second, we test data validity by cross-referencing migration information with changes in income to determine whether there are inconsistencies indicating misreporting. From the first part of the analysis, the results indicate that repeat immigrants systematically differ from permanent immigrants in terms of income trajectories. Furthermore, income trajectories differ based on the way in which years since migration is calculated. The second part of the analysis suggests that misreported migration events, while present, are negligible. Repeat immigrants differ in terms of income trajectories, and may differ in terms of other outcomes as well. Furthermore, this study underlines that Swedish registers provide a reliable data source to analyze groups which are unidentifiable in other data sources.

  16. Assessing moderated mediation in linear models requires fewer confounding assumptions than assessing mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeys, Tom; Talloen, Wouter; Goubert, Liesbet; Moerkerke, Beatrijs; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2016-11-01

    It is well known from the mediation analysis literature that the identification of direct and indirect effects relies on strong no unmeasured confounding assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Even in randomized studies the mediator may still be correlated with unobserved prognostic variables that affect the outcome, in which case the mediator's role in the causal process may not be inferred without bias. In the behavioural and social science literature very little attention has been given so far to the causal assumptions required for moderated mediation analysis. In this paper we focus on the index for moderated mediation, which measures by how much the mediated effect is larger or smaller for varying levels of the moderator. We show that in linear models this index can be estimated without bias in the presence of unmeasured common causes of the moderator, mediator and outcome under certain conditions. Importantly, one can thus use the test for moderated mediation to support evidence for mediation under less stringent confounding conditions. We illustrate our findings with data from a randomized experiment assessing the impact of being primed with social deception upon observer responses to others' pain, and from an observational study of individuals who ended a romantic relationship assessing the effect of attachment anxiety during the relationship on mental distress 2 years after the break-up. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  17. An empirical analysis of the importance of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating the income-mortality gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriaan Kalwij

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Statistical theory predicts that failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity in a Gompertz mortality risk model attenuates the estimated income-mortality gradient toward zero. Objective: I assess the empirical importance of controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in a Gompertz mortality risk model when estimating the income-mortality gradient. The analysis is carried out using individual-level administrative data from the Netherlands over the period 1996-2012. Methods: I estimate a Gompertz mortality risk model in which unobserved heterogeneity has a gamma distribution and left-truncation of life durations is explicitly taken into account. Results: I find that, despite a strong and significant presence of unobserved heterogeneity in both the male and female samples, failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity yields only a small and insignificant attenuation bias in the negative income-mortality gradient. Conclusions: The main finding, a small and insignificant attenuation bias in the negative income-mortality gradient when failing to control for unobserved heterogeneity, is positive news for the many empirical studies, whose estimations of the income-mortality gradient ignore unobserved heterogeneity.

  18. Observed and unobserved heterogeneity in stochastic frontier models: An application to the electricity distribution industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli

    2011-01-01

    In this study we combine different possibilities to model firm level heterogeneity in stochastic frontier analysis. We show that both observed and unobserved heterogeneities cause serious biases in inefficiency results. Modelling observed and unobserved heterogeneities treat individual firms in different ways and even though the expected mean inefficiency scores in both cases diminish the firm level efficiency rank orders turn out to be very different. The best fit with the data is obtained by modelling unobserved heterogeneity through randomizing frontier parameters and at the same time explicitly modelling the observed heterogeneity into the inefficiency distribution. These results are obtained by using data from Finnish electricity distribution utilities and the results are relevant in relation to electricity distribution pricing and regulation. -- Research Highlights: → We show that both observed and unobserved heterogeneities of firms cause biases in inefficiency results. → Different ways of accounting firm level heterogeneity end up with very different rank orders of firms. → The model which combines the characteristics of unobserved and observed heterogeneity fits the data best.

  19. Methods and Measures: Growth Mixture Modeling--A Method for Identifying Differences in Longitudinal Change among Unobserved Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, Nilam; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2009-01-01

    Growth mixture modeling (GMM) is a method for identifying multiple unobserved sub-populations, describing longitudinal change within each unobserved sub-population, and examining differences in change among unobserved sub-populations. We provide a practical primer that may be useful for researchers beginning to incorporate GMM analysis into their…

  20. Coping with unobservable and mis-classified states in capture-recapture studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kendall, W. L.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistate mark-recapture methods provide an excellent conceptual framework for considering estimation in studies of marked animals. Traditional methods include the assumptions that (1 each state an animal occupies is observable, and (2 state is assigned correctly at each point in time. Failure of either of these assumptions can lead to biased estimates of demographic parameters. I review design and analysis options for minimizing or eliminating these biases. Unobservable states can be adjusted for by including them in the state space of the statistical model, with zero capture probability, and incorporating the robust design, or observing animals in the unobservable state through telemetry, tag recoveries, or incidental observations. Mis¿classification can be adjusted for by auxiliary data or incorporating the robust design, in order to estimate the probability of detecting the state an animal occupies. For both unobservable and mis-classified states, the key feature of the robust design is the assumption that the state of the animal is static for at least two sampling occasions

  1. Unobserved heterogeneity in the power law nonhomogeneous Poisson process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asfaw, Zeytu Gashaw; Lindqvist, Bo Henry

    2015-01-01

    A study of possible consequences of heterogeneity in the failure intensity of repairable systems is presented. The basic model studied is the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with power law intensity function. When several similar systems are under observation, the assumption that the corresponding processes are independent and identically distributed is often questionable. In practice there may be an unobserved heterogeneity among the systems. The heterogeneity is modeled by introduction of unobserved gamma distributed frailties. The relevant likelihood function is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation is illustrated. In a simulation study we then compare results when using a power law model without taking into account heterogeneity, with the corresponding results obtained when the heterogeneity is accounted for. A motivating data example is also given. - Highlights: • Consequences of overlooking heterogeneity in similar repairable systems are studied. • Likelihood functions are established for power law NHPP w/ and w/o heterogeneity. • ML estimators for parameters of power law NHPP with heterogeneity are derived. • A simulation study shows the effects of heterogeneity and its ignorance in models

  2. Infant Mortality in Rural Bangladesh : State Dependence vs. Unobserved Heterogeneity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saha, U.R.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2009-01-01

    Using longitudinal data of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Matlab, Bangladesh, covering the time period 1982 – 2005, and exploiting dynamic panel data models, we analyze siblings’ death at infancy, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and a causal effect of death of one

  3. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  4. Identification of Successive ``Unobservable'' Cyber Data Attacks in Power Systems Through Matrix Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Pengzhi; Wang, Meng; Chow, Joe H.; Ghiocel, Scott G.; Fardanesh, Bruce; Stefopoulos, George; Razanousky, Michael P.

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a new framework of identifying a series of cyber data attacks on power system synchrophasor measurements. We focus on detecting "unobservable" cyber data attacks that cannot be detected by any existing method that purely relies on measurements received at one time instant. Leveraging the approximate low-rank property of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data, we formulate the identification problem of successive unobservable cyber attacks as a matrix decomposition problem of a low-rank matrix plus a transformed column-sparse matrix. We propose a convex-optimization-based method and provide its theoretical guarantee in the data identification. Numerical experiments on actual PMU data from the Central New York power system and synthetic data are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  5. Counterfactual Graphical Models for Longitudinal Mediation Analysis with Unobserved Confounding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpitser, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    Questions concerning mediated causal effects are of great interest in psychology, cognitive science, medicine, social science, public health, and many other disciplines. For instance, about 60% of recent papers published in leading journals in social psychology contain at least one mediation test (Rucker, Preacher, Tormala, & Petty, 2011).…

  6. Efficiency effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity: Evidence from Norwegian electricity distribution networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Growitsch, Christian; Jamasb, Tooraj; Wetzel, Heike

    2012-01-01

    Since the 1990s, efficiency and benchmarking analysis has increasingly been used in network utilities research and regulation. A recurrent concern is the effect of observable environmental factors that are beyond the influence of firms and unobserved factors that are not identifiable on measured cost and quality performance of firms. This paper analyses the effect of observed geographic and weather factors and unobserved heterogeneity on a set of 128 Norwegian electricity distribution utilities for the 2001–2004 period. We utilise data on 78 geographic and weather variables to identify real economic inefficiency while controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We use the Factor Analysis technique to reduce the number of environmental factors into few composite variables and to avoid the problem of multicollinearity. In order to identify firm-specific inefficiency, we then estimate a pooled version of the established stochastic frontier model of Aigner et al. (1977) and the recent true random effects model of Greene (2004; 2005a,b) without and with environmental variables. The results indicate that the observed environmental factors have a rather limited influence on the utilities' average efficiency and the efficiency rankings. Moreover, the difference between the average efficiency scores and the efficiency rankings among the pooled and the true random effects models imply that the type of SFA model used is highly influencing the efficiency estimates.

  7. A Bayesian analysis of the PPP puzzle using an unobserved components model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe failure to describe the time series behaviour of most real exchange rates as temporary deviations from fixed long-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibria themselves, see Engel (2000). We implement this idea using an unobserved components model and decompose the

  8. Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in bicyclists' red-light running behaviors at different crossing facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yanyong; Li, Zhibin; Wu, Yao; Xu, Chengcheng

    2018-06-01

    Bicyclists running the red light at crossing facilities increase the potential of colliding with motor vehicles. Exploring the contributing factors could improve the prediction of running red-light probability and develop countermeasures to reduce such behaviors. However, individuals could have unobserved heterogeneities in running a red light, which make the accurate prediction more challenging. Traditional models assume that factor parameters are fixed and cannot capture the varying impacts on red-light running behaviors. In this study, we employed the full Bayesian random parameters logistic regression approach to account for the unobserved heterogeneous effects. Two types of crossing facilities were considered which were the signalized intersection crosswalks and the road segment crosswalks. Electric and conventional bikes were distinguished in the modeling. Data were collected from 16 crosswalks in urban area of Nanjing, China. Factors such as individual characteristics, road geometric design, environmental features, and traffic variables were examined. Model comparison indicates that the full Bayesian random parameters logistic regression approach is statistically superior to the standard logistic regression model. More red-light runners are predicted at signalized intersection crosswalks than at road segment crosswalks. Factors affecting red-light running behaviors are gender, age, bike type, road width, presence of raised median, separation width, signal type, green ratio, bike and vehicle volume, and average vehicle speed. Factors associated with the unobserved heterogeneity are gender, bike type, signal type, separation width, and bike volume. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Sibling death clustering in India: state dependence vs. unobserved heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Arulampalam, Wiji; Bhalotra, Sonia

    2006-01-01

    Data from a range of different environments indicate that the incidence of death is not randomly distributed across families but, rather, that there is a clustering of death amongst siblings. A natural explanation of this would be that there are (observed or unobserved) differences across families, for example in genetic frailty, education or living standards. Another hypothesis of considerable interest for both theory and policy is that there is a causal process whereby the death of a child ...

  10. Assessment of Confounding in Studies of Delay and Survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tørring, Marie Louise; Vedsted, Peter; Frydenberg, Morten

    BACKGROUND: Whether longer time to diagnosis (diagnostic delay) in patients with cancer symptoms is directly and independently associated with poor prognosis cannot be determined in randomised controlled trials. Analysis of observational data is therefore necessary. Many previous studies of the i......BACKGROUND: Whether longer time to diagnosis (diagnostic delay) in patients with cancer symptoms is directly and independently associated with poor prognosis cannot be determined in randomised controlled trials. Analysis of observational data is therefore necessary. Many previous studies......) Clarify which factors are considered confounders or intermediate variables in the literature. 2) Assess how and to what extent these factors bias survival estimates. CONSIDERATIONS: As illustrated in Figure 1, symptoms of cancer may alert patients, GP's, and hospital doctors differently and influence both...... delay and survival time in different ways. We therefore assume that the impact of confounding factors depends on the type of delay studied (e.g., patient delay, GP delay, referral delay, or treatment delay). MATERIALS & METHODS: The project includes systematic review and methodological developments...

  11. Sibling Death Clustering in India: Genuine Scarring vs Unobserved Heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Wiji Arulampalam; Sonia Bhalotra

    2003-01-01

    Data from a range of environments indicate that the incidence of death is not randomly distributed across families but, rather, that there is a clustering of death among siblings. A natural explanation of this would be that there are (observed or unobserved) differences across families, e.g. in genetic frailty, education or living standards. Another hypothesis that is of considerable interest for both theory and policy is that there is a causal process whereby the death of a child influences ...

  12. Estimation of Unobserved Inflation Expectations in India using State-Space Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha; Sahu, Sohini; Jha, Saakshi

    2016-01-01

    Inflation expectations is an important marker for monetary policy makers. India being a new entrant to the group of countries that pursue inflation targeting as its monetary policy objective, estimating the inflation expectation is of paramount importance. This paper estimates the unobserved inflation expectations in India between 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q1 from the Fisher equation relation using the state space approach (Kalman Filter). We find that our results match well with the inflation forecast...

  13. Spatial Mixture Modelling for Unobserved Point Processes: Examples in Immunofluorescence Histology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Chunlin; Merl, Daniel; Kepler, Thomas B; West, Mike

    2009-12-04

    We discuss Bayesian modelling and computational methods in analysis of indirectly observed spatial point processes. The context involves noisy measurements on an underlying point process that provide indirect and noisy data on locations of point outcomes. We are interested in problems in which the spatial intensity function may be highly heterogenous, and so is modelled via flexible nonparametric Bayesian mixture models. Analysis aims to estimate the underlying intensity function and the abundance of realized but unobserved points. Our motivating applications involve immunological studies of multiple fluorescent intensity images in sections of lymphatic tissue where the point processes represent geographical configurations of cells. We are interested in estimating intensity functions and cell abundance for each of a series of such data sets to facilitate comparisons of outcomes at different times and with respect to differing experimental conditions. The analysis is heavily computational, utilizing recently introduced MCMC approaches for spatial point process mixtures and extending them to the broader new context here of unobserved outcomes. Further, our example applications are problems in which the individual objects of interest are not simply points, but rather small groups of pixels; this implies a need to work at an aggregate pixel region level and we develop the resulting novel methodology for this. Two examples with with immunofluorescence histology data demonstrate the models and computational methodology.

  14. "You Could Call It Magic": What Parents and Siblings Tell Preschoolers about Unobservable Entities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canfield, Caitlin F.; Ganea, Patricia A.

    2014-01-01

    How can we explain children's understanding of the unseen world? Young children are generally able to distinguish between real unobservable entities and fantastical ones, but they attribute different characteristics to and show less confidence in their decisions about fantastical entities generally endorsed by adults, such as Santa Claus. One…

  15. Sensitivity analysis for the effects of multiple unmeasured confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenwold, Rolf H H; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lawlor, Debbie A; Moons, Karel G M; Hoes, Arno W; Tilling, Kate

    2016-09-01

    Observational studies are prone to (unmeasured) confounding. Sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding typically focuses on a single unmeasured confounder. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of multiple (possibly weak) unmeasured confounders. Simulation studies were performed based on parameters estimated from the British Women's Heart and Health Study, including 28 measured confounders and assuming no effect of ascorbic acid intake on mortality. In addition, 25, 50, or 100 unmeasured confounders were simulated, with various mutual correlations and correlations with measured confounders. The correlated unmeasured confounders did not need to be strongly associated with exposure and outcome to substantially bias the exposure-outcome association at interest, provided that there are sufficiently many unmeasured confounders. Correlations between unmeasured confounders, in addition to the strength of their relationship with exposure and outcome, are key drivers of the magnitude of unmeasured confounding and should be considered in sensitivity analyses. However, if the unmeasured confounders are correlated with measured confounders, the bias yielded by unmeasured confounders is partly removed through adjustment for the measured confounders. Discussions of the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies, and sensitivity analyses to examine this, should focus on the potential for the joint effect of multiple unmeasured confounders to bias results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Discrimination or Unobserved Differences in Characteristics?-An Empirical Study on Wage Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Zheng; Sakellariou, Chris

    2015-01-01

    We apply the discrimination search model with wage-tenure contracts to NLSY79 data to study race/gender wage inequality with a focus on distinguishing unobserved productivity differences from discrimination in the labor market and also simulating the pattern of wage dynamics. Our findings suggest that the productivity differential between black and white workers is 3% of white worker productivity while productivity differences between men and women are estimated to be 3% of male productivity....

  17. Educational gains in cause-specific mortality: Accounting for cognitive ability and family-level confounders using propensity score weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijwaard, Govert E; Myrskylä, Mikko; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn

    2017-07-01

    A negative educational gradient has been found for many causes of death. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both educational attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-specific educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors using an innovative method based on months lost due to a specific cause of death re-weighted by the probability of attaining a higher educational level. We use data on men with brothers from the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative registers. This dataset of some 700,000 men allows us to distinguish between five education levels and many causes of death. The empirical results reveal that raising the educational level from primary to tertiary would result in an additional 20 months of survival between ages 18 and 63. This improvement in mortality is mainly attributable to fewer deaths from external causes. The highly educated gain more than nine months due to the reduction in deaths from external causes, but gain only two months due to the reduction in cancer mortality and four months due to the reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Ignoring confounding would lead to an underestimation of the gains by educational attainment, especially for the less educated. Our results imply that if the education distribution of 50,000 Swedish men from the 1951 cohort were replaced with that of the corresponding 1983 cohort, 22% of the person-years that were lost to death between ages 18 and 63 would have been saved for this cohort. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments, and confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2011-01-01

    Uncontrolled confounding in observational studies gives rise to biased effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be useful in assessing the magnitude of these biases. In this paper, we use the potential outcomes framework to derive a general class of sensitivity-analysis formulas for outcomes, treatments, and measured and unmeasured confounding variables that may be categorical or continuous. We give results for additive, risk-ratio and odds-ratio scales. We show that these results encompass a number of more specific sensitivity-analysis methods in the statistics and epidemiology literature. The applicability, usefulness, and limits of the bias-adjustment formulas are discussed. We illustrate the sensitivity-analysis techniques that follow from our results by applying them to 3 different studies. The bias formulas are particularly simple and easy to use in settings in which the unmeasured confounding variable is binary with constant effect on the outcome across treatment levels.

  19. Environmental confounding in gene-environment interaction studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Ko, Yi-An; Mukherjee, Bhramar

    2013-07-01

    We show that, in the presence of uncontrolled environmental confounding, joint tests for the presence of a main genetic effect and gene-environment interaction will be biased if the genetic and environmental factors are correlated, even if there is no effect of either the genetic factor or the environmental factor on the disease. When environmental confounding is ignored, such tests will in fact reject the joint null of no genetic effect with a probability that tends to 1 as the sample size increases. This problem with the joint test vanishes under gene-environment independence, but it still persists if estimating the gene-environment interaction parameter itself is of interest. Uncontrolled environmental confounding will bias estimates of gene-environment interaction parameters even under gene-environment independence, but it will not do so if the unmeasured confounding variable itself does not interact with the genetic factor. Under gene-environment independence, if the interaction parameter without controlling for the environmental confounder is nonzero, then there is gene-environment interaction either between the genetic factor and the environmental factor of interest or between the genetic factor and the unmeasured environmental confounder. We evaluate several recently proposed joint tests in a simulation study and discuss the implications of these results for the conduct of gene-environment interaction studies.

  20. DeltaShaper: Enabling Unobservable Censorship-resistant TCP Tunneling over Videoconferencing Streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barradas Diogo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the possibility of using the encrypted video channel of widely used videoconferencing applications, such as Skype, as a carrier for unobservable covert TCP/IP communications. We propose and evaluate different alternatives to encode information in the video stream in order to increase available throughput while preserving the packet-level characteristics of the video stream. We have built a censorship-resistant system, named DeltaShaper, which offers a data-link interface and supports TCP/IP applications that tolerate low throughput / high latency links. Our results show that it is possible to run standard protocols such as FTP, SMTP, or HTTP over Skype video streams.

  1. Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: correlated errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, J R; Hastrup, J L; Ross, J S

    1999-07-01

    Confounding in epidemiology, and the limits of standard methods of control for an imperfectly measured confounder, have been understood for some time. However, most treatments of this problem are based on the assumption that errors of measurement in confounding and confounded variables are independent. This paper considers the situation in which a strong risk factor (confounder) and an inconsequential but suspected risk factor (confounded) are each measured with errors that are correlated; the situation appears especially likely to occur in the field of nutritional epidemiology. Error correlation appears to add little to measurement error as a source of bias in estimating the impact of a strong risk factor: it can add to, diminish, or reverse the bias induced by measurement error in estimating the impact of the inconsequential risk factor. Correlation of measurement errors can add to the difficulty involved in evaluating structures in which confounding and measurement error are present. In its presence, observed correlations among risk factors can be greater than, less than, or even opposite to the true correlations. Interpretation of multivariate epidemiologic structures in which confounding is likely requires evaluation of measurement error structures, including correlations among measurement errors.

  2. Predictive modelling using neuroimaging data in the presence of confounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Anil; Monteiro, Joao M; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina

    2017-04-15

    When training predictive models from neuroimaging data, we typically have available non-imaging variables such as age and gender that affect the imaging data but which we may be uninterested in from a clinical perspective. Such variables are commonly referred to as 'confounds'. In this work, we firstly give a working definition for confound in the context of training predictive models from samples of neuroimaging data. We define a confound as a variable which affects the imaging data and has an association with the target variable in the sample that differs from that in the population-of-interest, i.e., the population over which we intend to apply the estimated predictive model. The focus of this paper is the scenario in which the confound and target variable are independent in the population-of-interest, but the training sample is biased due to a sample association between the target and confound. We then discuss standard approaches for dealing with confounds in predictive modelling such as image adjustment and including the confound as a predictor, before deriving and motivating an Instance Weighting scheme that attempts to account for confounds by focusing model training so that it is optimal for the population-of-interest. We evaluate the standard approaches and Instance Weighting in two regression problems with neuroimaging data in which we train models in the presence of confounding, and predict samples that are representative of the population-of-interest. For comparison, these models are also evaluated when there is no confounding present. In the first experiment we predict the MMSE score using structural MRI from the ADNI database with gender as the confound, while in the second we predict age using structural MRI from the IXI database with acquisition site as the confound. Considered over both datasets we find that none of the methods for dealing with confounding gives more accurate predictions than a baseline model which ignores confounding, although

  3. Unobserved Heterogeneity of Frailty in the Analysis of Socioeconomic Differences in Health and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia

    2016-01-01

    The concepts of unobserved frailty and selection have been extensively analyzed with respect to phenomena like mortality deceleration at old ages and mortality convergence or cross overs between populations (for example American black and white populations, men and women). Despite the long......-time observation of converging mortality risks in differential socioeconomic mortality research, the interest in the connection between frailty, selection, and health and mortality inequalities over a life course approach has increased only recently. This overview of the literature summarizes the main concepts...

  4. Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nonejad, Nima

    This paper details Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. PMCMC combines the particle filter with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Overall PMCMC provides a very compelling, computationally fast...... and efficient framework for estimation. These advantages are used to for instance estimate stochastic volatility models with leverage effect or with Student-t distributed errors. We also model changing time series characteristics of the US inflation rate by considering a heteroskedastic ARFIMA model where...

  5. NPRB711 Quantification of unobserved injury and mortality of Bering Sea crabs due to encounters with trawls on the seafloor

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The potential for unobserved mortality of crabs encountering bottom trawls, but not captured, has long been a concern in the management of Bering Sea fisheries. We...

  6. External adjustment of unmeasured confounders in a case-control study of benzodiazepine use and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Pottegård, Anton; Ersbøll, Annette Kjaer

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: Previous studies have reported diverging results on the association between benzodiazepine use and cancer risk. METHODS: We investigated this association in a matched case-control study including incident cancer cases during 2002-2009 in the Danish Cancer Registry (n = 94 923) and age......% confidence interval 1.00-1.19) and for smoking-related cancers from 1.20 to 1.10 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.21). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the increased risk observed in the solely register-based study could partly be attributed to unmeasured confounding....... PSs were used: The error-prone PS using register-based confounders and the calibrated PS based on both register- and survey-based confounders, retrieved from the Health Interview Survey. RESULTS: Register-based data showed that cancer cases had more diagnoses, higher comorbidity score and more co...

  7. Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: uncorrelated errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, J R; Hastrup, J L

    1996-05-15

    Greenland first documented (Am J Epidemiol 1980; 112:564-9) that error in the measurement of a confounder could resonate--that it could bias estimates of other study variables, and that the bias could persist even with statistical adjustment for the confounder as measured. An important question is raised by this finding: can such bias be more than trivial within the bounds of realistic data configurations? The authors examine several situations involving dichotomous and continuous data in which a confounder and a null variable are measured with error, and they assess the extent of resultant bias in estimates of the effect of the null variable. They show that, with continuous variables, measurement error amounting to 40% of observed variance in the confounder could cause the observed impact of the null study variable to appear to alter risk by as much as 30%. Similarly, they show, with dichotomous independent variables, that 15% measurement error in the form of misclassification could lead the null study variable to appear to alter risk by as much as 50%. Such bias would result only from strong confounding. Measurement error would obscure the evidence that strong confounding is a likely problem. These results support the need for every epidemiologic inquiry to include evaluations of measurement error in each variable considered.

  8. Wind turbines and idiopathic symptoms: The confounding effect of concurrent environmental exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanes-Vidal, Victoria; Schwartz, Joel

    2016-01-01

    Whether or not wind turbines pose a risk to human health is a matter of heated debate. Personal reactions to other environmental exposures occurring in the same settings as wind turbines may be responsible of the reported symptoms. However, these have not been accounted for in previous studies. We investigated whether there is an association between residential proximity to wind turbines and idiopathic symptoms, after controlling for personal reactions to other environmental co-exposures. We assessed wind turbine exposures in 454 residences as the distance to the closest wind turbine (Dw) and number of wind turbines turbines and agricultural odor exposure, we did not observe a significant relationship between residential proximity to wind turbines and symptoms and the parameter estimates were attenuated toward zero. Wind turbines-health associations can be confounded by personal reactions to other environmental co-exposures. Isolated associations reported in the literature may be due to confounding bias. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Methods to control for unmeasured confounding in pharmacoepidemiology: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Md Jamal; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Ali, Mohammed Sanni; de Boer, Anthonius; Roes, Kit C B; Chowdhury, Muhammad A B; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-06-01

    Background Unmeasured confounding is one of the principal problems in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. Several methods have been proposed to detect or control for unmeasured confounding either at the study design phase or the data analysis phase. Aim of the Review To provide an overview of commonly used methods to detect or control for unmeasured confounding and to provide recommendations for proper application in pharmacoepidemiology. Methods/Results Methods to control for unmeasured confounding in the design phase of a study are case only designs (e.g., case-crossover, case-time control, self-controlled case series) and the prior event rate ratio adjustment method. Methods that can be applied in the data analysis phase include, negative control method, perturbation variable method, instrumental variable methods, sensitivity analysis, and ecological analysis. A separate group of methods are those in which additional information on confounders is collected from a substudy. The latter group includes external adjustment, propensity score calibration, two-stage sampling, and multiple imputation. Conclusion As the performance and application of the methods to handle unmeasured confounding may differ across studies and across databases, we stress the importance of using both statistical evidence and substantial clinical knowledge for interpretation of the study results.

  10. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs): an aid to assess confounding in dental research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, Anwar T; Pitiphat, Waranuch

    2002-12-01

    Confounding, a special type of bias, occurs when an extraneous factor is associated with the exposure and independently affects the outcome. In order to get an unbiased estimate of the exposure-outcome relationship, we need to identify potential confounders, collect information on them, design appropriate studies, and adjust for confounding in data analysis. However, it is not always clear which variables to collect information on and adjust for in the analyses. Inappropriate adjustment for confounding can even introduce bias where none existed. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a method to select potential confounders and minimize bias in the design and analysis of epidemiological studies. DAGs have been used extensively in expert systems and robotics. Robins (1987) introduced the application of DAGs in epidemiology to overcome shortcomings of traditional methods to control for confounding, especially as they related to unmeasured confounding. DAGs provide a quick and visual way to assess confounding without making parametric assumptions. We introduce DAGs, starting with definitions and rules for basic manipulation, stressing more on applications than theory. We then demonstrate their application in the control of confounding through examples of observational and cross-sectional epidemiological studies.

  11. Resting-state FMRI confounds and cleanup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kevin; Birn, Rasmus M.; Bandettini, Peter A.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) is to investigate the brain’s functional connections by using the temporal similarity between blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals in different regions of the brain “at rest” as an indicator of synchronous neural activity. Since this measure relies on the temporal correlation of FMRI signal changes between different parts of the brain, any non-neural activity-related process that affects the signals will influence the measure of functional connectivity, yielding spurious results. To understand the sources of these resting-state FMRI confounds, this article describes the origins of the BOLD signal in terms of MR physics and cerebral physiology. Potential confounds arising from motion, cardiac and respiratory cycles, arterial CO2 concentration, blood pressure/cerebral autoregulation, and vasomotion are discussed. Two classes of techniques to remove confounds from resting-state BOLD time series are reviewed: 1) those utilising external recordings of physiology and 2) data-based cleanup methods that only use the resting-state FMRI data itself. Further methods that remove noise from functional connectivity measures at a group level are also discussed. For successful interpretation of resting-state FMRI comparisons and results, noise cleanup is an often over-looked but essential step in the analysis pipeline. PMID:23571418

  12. Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheppard, L.; Burnett, R.T.; Szpiro, A.A.; Kim, J.Y.; Jerrett, M.; Pope, C.; Brunekreef, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180

    2012-01-01

    Studies in air pollution epidemiology may suffer from some specific forms of confounding and exposure measurement error. This contribution discusses these, mostly in the framework of cohort studies. Evaluation of potential confounding is critical in studies of the health effects of air pollution.

  13. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise

    2017-01-01

    . AIM: To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical...... restraint. METHODS: The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. RESULTS: The three sub-scales (Confounders......, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. CONCLUSIONS: MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items...

  14. Confounding adjustment through front-door blocking in longitudinal studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvid Sjölander

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A common aim of epidemiological research is to estimate the causal effect of a particular exposure on a particular outcome. Towards this end, observed associations are often ‘adjusted’ for potential confounding variables. When the potential confounders are unmeasured, explicit adjustment becomes unfeasible. It has been demonstrated that causal effects can be estimated even in the presence of umeasured confounding, utilizing a method called ‘front-door blocking’. In this paper we generalize this method to longitudinal studies. We demonstrate that the method of front-door blocking poses a number of challenging statistical problems, analogous to the famous problems associ- ated with the method of ‘back-door blocking’.

  15. Poppers, Kaposi's sarcoma, and HIV infection: empirical example of a strong confounding effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, A

    1995-01-01

    Are there empirical examples of strong confounding effects? Textbooks usually show examples of weak confounding or use hypothetical examples of strong confounding to illustrate the paradoxical consequences of not separating out the effect of the studied exposure from that of second factor acting as a confounder. HIV infection is a candidate strong confounder of the spuriously high association reported between consumption of poppers, a sexual stimulant, and risk of Kaposi's sarcoma in the early phase of the AIDS epidemic. To examine this hypothesis, assumptions must be made on the prevalence of HIV infection among cases of Kaposi's sarcoma and on the prevalence of heavy popper consumption according to HIV infection in cases and controls. Results show that HIV infection may have confounded the poppers-Kaposi's sarcoma association. However, it cannot be ruled out that HIV did not qualify as a confounder because it was either an intermediate variable or an effect modifier of the association between popper inhalation and Kaposi's sarcoma. This example provides a basis to discuss the mechanism by which confounding occurs as well as the practical importance of confounding in epidemiologic research.

  16. Methods to control for unmeasured confounding in pharmacoepidemiology : an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uddin, Md Jamal; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Ali, Mohammed Sanni; de Boer, Anthonius; Roes, Kit C B; Chowdhury, Muhammad A B; Klungel, Olaf H.

    2016-01-01

    Background Unmeasured confounding is one of the principal problems in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. Several methods have been proposed to detect or control for unmeasured confounding either at the study design phase or the data analysis phase. Aim of the Review To provide an overview of commonly

  17. Can We Train Machine Learning Methods to Outperform the High-dimensional Propensity Score Algorithm?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Pang, Menglan; Platt, Robert W

    2018-03-01

    The use of retrospective health care claims datasets is frequently criticized for the lack of complete information on potential confounders. Utilizing patient's health status-related information from claims datasets as surrogates or proxies for mismeasured and unobserved confounders, the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm enables us to reduce bias. Using a previously published cohort study of postmyocardial infarction statin use (1998-2012), we compare the performance of the algorithm with a number of popular machine learning approaches for confounder selection in high-dimensional covariate spaces: random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and elastic net. Our results suggest that, when the data analysis is done with epidemiologic principles in mind, machine learning methods perform as well as the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm. Using a plasmode framework that mimicked the empirical data, we also showed that a hybrid of machine learning and high-dimensional propensity score algorithms generally perform slightly better than both in terms of mean squared error, when a bias-based analysis is used.

  18. Examining the role of unmeasured confounding in mediation analysis with genetic and genomic applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Sharon M; Thwing, Annie; Schmiege, Sarah; Kroehl, Miranda; Baker, Christopher D; Starling, Anne P; Hokanson, John E; Ghosh, Debashis

    2017-07-19

    In mediation analysis if unmeasured confounding is present, the estimates for the direct and mediated effects may be over or under estimated. Most methods for the sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding in mediation have focused on the mediator-outcome relationship. The Umediation R package enables the user to simulate unmeasured confounding of the exposure-mediator, exposure-outcome, and mediator-outcome relationships in order to see how the results of the mediation analysis would change in the presence of unmeasured confounding. We apply the Umediation package to the Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) study to examine the role of unmeasured confounding due to population stratification on the effect of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CHRNA5/3/B4 locus on pulmonary function decline as mediated by cigarette smoking. Umediation is a flexible R package that examines the role of unmeasured confounding in mediation analysis allowing for normally distributed or Bernoulli distributed exposures, outcomes, mediators, measured confounders, and unmeasured confounders. Umediation also accommodates multiple measured confounders, multiple unmeasured confounders, and allows for a mediator-exposure interaction on the outcome. Umediation is available as an R package at https://github.com/SharonLutz/Umediation A tutorial on how to install and use the Umediation package is available in the Additional file 1.

  19. Bias, Confounding, and Interaction: Lions and Tigers, and Bears, Oh My!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Thomas R; Mascha, Edward J

    2017-09-01

    Epidemiologists seek to make a valid inference about the causal effect between an exposure and a disease in a specific population, using representative sample data from a specific population. Clinical researchers likewise seek to make a valid inference about the association between an intervention and outcome(s) in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Both do so by using the available data about the sample variable to make a valid estimate about its corresponding or underlying, but unknown population parameter. Random error in an experiment can be due to the natural, periodic fluctuation or variation in the accuracy or precision of virtually any data sampling technique or health measurement tool or scale. In a clinical research study, random error can be due to not only innate human variability but also purely chance. Systematic error in an experiment arises from an innate flaw in the data sampling technique or measurement instrument. In the clinical research setting, systematic error is more commonly referred to as systematic bias. The most commonly encountered types of bias in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain medicine research include recall bias, observational bias (Hawthorne effect), attrition bias, misclassification or informational bias, and selection bias. A confounding variable is a factor associated with both the exposure of interest and the outcome of interest. A confounding variable (confounding factor or confounder) is a variable that correlates (positively or negatively) with both the exposure and outcome. Confounding is typically not an issue in a randomized trial because the randomized groups are sufficiently balanced on all potential confounding variables, both observed and nonobserved. However, confounding can be a major problem with any observational (nonrandomized) study. Ignoring confounding in an observational study will often result in a "distorted" or incorrect estimate of

  20. An analysis of market shares on the Danish alcohol market using unobserved components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2009-01-01

    The Danish alcohol market has three types of alcohol: Beer, Wine and Spirits. The market share of wine has doubled over a 25 year period, while the market share of beer has been declining and the market share of spirits is generally low and fluctuating. In recent years the trending behavior has...... however changed, most likely because of changes in taxation on spirits. In the paper these market shares are analyzed by unobserved components models using Proc Ucm as models with time varying trends etc. are well suited for this type of data. In Denmark the relative prices for the three types of alcohol...... have changed radically because of changes in the taxation and hence the relative prices provide good independent variables in regressions. In SAS version 9.2 Proc Ucm has been extended with a Randomreg statement, that allows for the varying regression coefficients. One result is that the effect...

  1. Opinion Dynamics on Networks with Inference of Unobservable States of Others

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujie, Ryo

    In most opinion formation models which have been proposed, the agents decide their states (i.e. opinions) by referring to the states of others. However, the referred states of others are not necessarily observable and may be inferred. To investigate the effect of an inference of the states of others on opinion dynamics, I propose an extended voter model on networks where observable and referable node sets are different. These sets for a node defined as the nearest to the mo-th neighbors for observable nodes and the nearest to the mr-th neighbors for referable nodes. The state of referable but unobservable node which is the m-th neighbor (mo pagerank'' is conserved. This conserved quantity coincides with the fixation probability. On the other hand, in the case of mo =mr = 1 , the model comes down to the standard voter model on networks and the conserved quantity is a degree-weighted superposition of the states. Thus, the introduction of the inference changes the important opinion spreaders from the high-degree nodes to the high-betweenness pagerank nodes. This work is supported by the Collaboration Research Program of IDEAS, Chubu University IDEAS2016233.

  2. Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Lianne; Burnett, Richard T; Szpiro, Adam A; Kim, Sun-Young; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C Arden; Brunekreef, Bert

    2012-06-01

    Studies in air pollution epidemiology may suffer from some specific forms of confounding and exposure measurement error. This contribution discusses these, mostly in the framework of cohort studies. Evaluation of potential confounding is critical in studies of the health effects of air pollution. The association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality has been investigated using cohort studies in which subjects are followed over time with respect to their vital status. In such studies, control for individual-level confounders such as smoking is important, as is control for area-level confounders such as neighborhood socio-economic status. In addition, there may be spatial dependencies in the survival data that need to be addressed. These issues are illustrated using the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II cohort. Exposure measurement error is a challenge in epidemiology because inference about health effects can be incorrect when the measured or predicted exposure used in the analysis is different from the underlying true exposure. Air pollution epidemiology rarely if ever uses personal measurements of exposure for reasons of cost and feasibility. Exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology comes in various dominant forms, which are different for time-series and cohort studies. The challenges are reviewed and a number of suggested solutions are discussed for both study domains.

  3. CONFOUNDING STRUCTURE OF TWO-LEVEL NONREGULAR FACTORIAL DESIGNS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ren Junbai

    2012-01-01

    In design theory,the alias structure of regular fractional factorial designs is elegantly described with group theory.However,this approach cannot be applied to nonregular designs directly. For an arbitrary nonregular design,a natural question is how to describe the confounding relations between its effects,is there any inner structure similar to regular designs? The aim of this article is to answer this basic question.Using coefficients of indicator function,confounding structure of nonregular fractional factorial designs is obtained as linear constrains on the values of effects.A method to estimate the sparse significant effects in an arbitrary nonregular design is given through an example.

  4. The performance of random coefficient regression in accounting for residual confounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Paul; Greenland, Sander

    2006-09-01

    Greenland (2000, Biometrics 56, 915-921) describes the use of random coefficient regression to adjust for residual confounding in a particular setting. We examine this setting further, giving theoretical and empirical results concerning the frequentist and Bayesian performance of random coefficient regression. Particularly, we compare estimators based on this adjustment for residual confounding to estimators based on the assumption of no residual confounding. This devolves to comparing an estimator from a nonidentified but more realistic model to an estimator from a less realistic but identified model. The approach described by Gustafson (2005, Statistical Science 20, 111-140) is used to quantify the performance of a Bayesian estimator arising from a nonidentified model. From both theoretical calculations and simulations we find support for the idea that superior performance can be obtained by replacing unrealistic identifying constraints with priors that allow modest departures from those constraints. In terms of point-estimator bias this superiority arises when the extent of residual confounding is substantial, but the advantage is much broader in terms of interval estimation. The benefit from modeling residual confounding is maintained when the prior distributions employed only roughly correspond to reality, for the standard identifying constraints are equivalent to priors that typically correspond much worse.

  5. Recommendations to standardize preanalytical confounding factors in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    del Campo, Marta; Mollenhauer, Brit; Bertolotto, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Early diagnosis of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's (AD) or Parkinson's disease (PD) is needed to slow down or halt the disease at the earliest stage. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers can be a good tool for early diagnosis. However, their use in clinical practice is challenging...... the need to establish standardized operating procedures. Here, we merge two previous consensus guidelines for preanalytical confounding factors in order to achieve one exhaustive guideline updated with new evidence for Aβ42, total tau and phosphorylated tau, and α-synuclein. The proposed standardized...

  6. Propensity score methodology for confounding control in health care utilization databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Patorno

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Propensity score (PS methodology is a common approach to control for confounding in nonexperimental studies of treatment effects using health care utilization databases. This methodology offers researchers many advantages compared with conventional multivariate models: it directly focuses on the determinants of treatment choice, facilitating the understanding of the clinical decision-making process by the researcher; it allows for graphical comparisons of the distribution of propensity scores and truncation of subjects without overlapping PS indicating a lack of equipoise; it allows transparent assessment of the confounder balance achieved by the PS at baseline; and it offers a straightforward approach to reduce the dimensionality of sometimes large arrays of potential confounders in utilization databases, directly addressing the “curse of dimensionality” in the context of rare events. This article provides an overview of the use of propensity score methodology for pharmacoepidemiologic research with large health care utilization databases, covering recent discussions on covariate selection, the role of automated techniques for addressing unmeasurable confounding via proxies, strategies to maximize clinical equipoise at baseline, and the potential of machine-learning algorithms for optimized propensity score estimation. The appendix discusses the available software packages for PS methodology. Propensity scores are a frequently used and versatile tool for transparent and comprehensive adjustment of confounding in pharmacoepidemiology with large health care databases.

  7. The Causal Mediation Formula - A Guide to the Assessment of Pathways and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    for estimating CDE(z) in observational studies (in the presence of unobserved confounders) can be derived using do- calculus (Pearl, 2009, pp. 85–88...2011; Albert and Nelson , 2011). 7In the presence of measured and unmeasured confounders, the general conditions under which NDE is estimable from...achieve this independence (see footnote 7), that Z may represent a vector of variables, and that integrals should replace summations when dealing with

  8. Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation

    OpenAIRE

    Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and ou...

  9. Confounding in statistical mediation analysis: What it is and how to address it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Matthew J; Pelham, William E; Smyth, Heather; MacKinnon, David P

    2017-11-01

    Psychology researchers are often interested in mechanisms underlying how randomized interventions affect outcomes such as substance use and mental health. Mediation analysis is a common statistical method for investigating psychological mechanisms that has benefited from exciting new methodological improvements over the last 2 decades. One of the most important new developments is methodology for estimating causal mediated effects using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. Potential outcomes-based methods developed in epidemiology and statistics have important implications for understanding psychological mechanisms. We aim to provide a concise introduction to and illustration of these new methods and emphasize the importance of confounder adjustment. First, we review the traditional regression approach for estimating mediated effects. Second, we describe the potential outcomes framework. Third, we define what a confounder is and how the presence of a confounder can provide misleading evidence regarding mechanisms of interventions. Fourth, we describe experimental designs that can help rule out confounder bias. Fifth, we describe new statistical approaches to adjust for measured confounders of the mediator-outcome relation and sensitivity analyses to probe effects of unmeasured confounders on the mediated effect. All approaches are illustrated with application to a real counseling intervention dataset. Counseling psychologists interested in understanding the causal mechanisms of their interventions can benefit from incorporating the most up-to-date techniques into their mediation analyses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Estimating cost efficiency of Turkish commercial banks under unobserved heterogeneity with stochastic frontier models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Gunes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the cost efficiency of Turkish commercial banks over the restructuring period of the Turkish banking system, which coincides with the 2008 financial global crisis and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis. To this end, within the stochastic frontier framework, we employ true fixed effects model, where the unobserved bank heterogeneity is integrated in the inefficiency distribution at a mean level. To select the cost function with the most appropriate inefficiency correlates, we first adopt a search algorithm and then utilize the model averaging approach to verify that our results are not exposed to model selection bias. Overall, our empirical results reveal that cost efficiencies of Turkish banks have improved over time, with the effects of the 2008 and 2010 crises remaining rather limited. Furthermore, not only the cost efficiency scores but also impacts of the crises on those scores appear to vary with regard to bank size and ownership structure, in accordance with much of the existing literature.

  11. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  12. Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

    2017-09-01

    Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Acceptance of homosexuality through education? Investigating the role of education, family background and individual characteristics in the United Kingdom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    la Roi, Chaïm; Mandemakers, Jornt

    Higher educated people tend to be more accepting of homosexuality than lower educated people. This has inspired claims that education leads to a higher acceptance of homosexuality. Alternatively, the association between education and acceptance of homosexuality could be confounded by (un)observed

  14. A simple method for analyzing data from a randomized trial with a missing binary outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freedman Laurence S

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many randomized trials involve missing binary outcomes. Although many previous adjustments for missing binary outcomes have been proposed, none of these makes explicit use of randomization to bound the bias when the data are not missing at random. Methods We propose a novel approach that uses the randomization distribution to compute the anticipated maximum bias when missing at random does not hold due to an unobserved binary covariate (implying that missingness depends on outcome and treatment group. The anticipated maximum bias equals the product of two factors: (a the anticipated maximum bias if there were complete confounding of the unobserved covariate with treatment group among subjects with an observed outcome and (b an upper bound factor that depends only on the fraction missing in each randomization group. If less than 15% of subjects are missing in each group, the upper bound factor is less than .18. Results We illustrated the methodology using data from the Polyp Prevention Trial. We anticipated a maximum bias under complete confounding of .25. With only 7% and 9% missing in each arm, the upper bound factor, after adjusting for age and sex, was .10. The anticipated maximum bias of .25 × .10 =.025 would not have affected the conclusion of no treatment effect. Conclusion This approach is easy to implement and is particularly informative when less than 15% of subjects are missing in each arm.

  15. Cardiovascular health, traffic-related air pollution and noise: are associations mutually confounded? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tétreault, Louis-François; Perron, Stéphane; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2013-10-01

    This review assessed the confounding effect of one traffic-related exposure (noise or air pollutants) on the association between the other exposure and cardiovascular outcomes. A systematic review was conducted with the databases Medline and Embase. The confounding effects in studies were assessed by using change in the estimate with a 10 % cutoff point. The influence on the change in the estimate of the quality of the studies, the exposure assessment methods and the correlation between road noise and air pollutions were also assessed. Nine publications were identified. For most studies, the specified confounders produced changes in estimates noise and pollutants, the quality of the study and of the exposure assessment do not seem to influence the confounding effects. Results from this review suggest that confounding of cardiovascular effects by noise or air pollutants is low, though with further improvements in exposure assessment, the situation may change. More studies using pollution indicators specific to road traffic are needed to properly assess if noise and air pollution are subjected to confounding.

  16. Confounder selection in environmental epidemiology: Assessment of health effects of prenatal mercury exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of the study is to compare different approaches to the identification of confounders needed for analyzing observational data. Whereas standard analysis usually is conducted as if the confounders were known a priori, selection uncertainty also must be taken into account. METHO...

  17. Comparison of statistical approaches dealing with time-dependent confounding in drug effectiveness studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Petkau, John; Gustafson, Paul; Platt, Robert W; Tremlett, Helen

    2018-06-01

    In longitudinal studies, if the time-dependent covariates are affected by the past treatment, time-dependent confounding may be present. For a time-to-event response, marginal structural Cox models are frequently used to deal with such confounding. To avoid some of the problems of fitting marginal structural Cox model, the sequential Cox approach has been suggested as an alternative. Although the estimation mechanisms are different, both approaches claim to estimate the causal effect of treatment by appropriately adjusting for time-dependent confounding. We carry out simulation studies to assess the suitability of the sequential Cox approach for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of a time-dependent covariate that may or may not be a time-dependent confounder. Results from these simulations revealed that the sequential Cox approach is not as effective as marginal structural Cox model in addressing the time-dependent confounding. The sequential Cox approach was also found to be inadequate in the presence of a time-dependent covariate. We propose a modified version of the sequential Cox approach that correctly estimates the treatment effect in both of the above scenarios. All approaches are applied to investigate the impact of beta-interferon treatment in delaying disability progression in the British Columbia Multiple Sclerosis cohort (1995-2008).

  18. Effects of categorization method, regression type, and variable distribution on the inflation of Type-I error rate when categorizing a confounding variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnwell-Ménard, Jean-Louis; Li, Qing; Cohen, Alan A

    2015-03-15

    The loss of signal associated with categorizing a continuous variable is well known, and previous studies have demonstrated that this can lead to an inflation of Type-I error when the categorized variable is a confounder in a regression analysis estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, it is not known how the Type-I error may vary under different circumstances, including logistic versus linear regression, different distributions of the confounder, and different categorization methods. Here, we analytically quantified the effect of categorization and then performed a series of 9600 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the Type-I error inflation associated with categorization of a confounder under different regression scenarios. We show that Type-I error is unacceptably high (>10% in most scenarios and often 100%). The only exception was when the variable categorized was a continuous mixture proxy for a genuinely dichotomous latent variable, where both the continuous proxy and the categorized variable are error-ridden proxies for the dichotomous latent variable. As expected, error inflation was also higher with larger sample size, fewer categories, and stronger associations between the confounder and the exposure or outcome. We provide online tools that can help researchers estimate the potential error inflation and understand how serious a problem this is. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Control principles of confounders in ecological comparative studies: standardization and regressive modelss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varaksin Anatoly

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The methods of the analysis of research data including the concomitant variables (confounders associated with both the response and the current factor are considered. There are two usual ways to take into account such variables: the first, at the stage of planning the experiment and the second, in analyzing the received data. Despite the equal effectiveness of these approaches, there exists strong reason to restrict the usage of regression method to accounting for confounders by ANCOVA. Authors consider the standardization by stratification as a reliable method to account for the effect of confounding factors as opposed to the widely-implemented application of logistic regression and the covariance analysis. The program for the automation of standardization procedure is proposed, it is available at the site of the Institute of Industrial Ecology.

  20. Offspring ADHD as a risk factor for parental marital problems: controls for genetic and environmental confounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schermerhorn, Alice C; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Slutske, Wendy S; Emery, Robert E; Turkheimer, Eric; Harden, K Paige; Heath, Andrew C; Martin, Nicholas G

    2012-12-01

    Previous studies have found that child attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with more parental marital problems. However, the reasons for this association are unclear. The association might be due to genetic or environmental confounds that contribute to both marital problems and ADHD. Data were drawn from the Australian Twin Registry, including 1,296 individual twins, their spouses, and offspring. We studied adult twins who were discordant for offspring ADHD.Using a discordant twin pairs design, we examined the extent to which genetic and environmental confounds,as well as measured parental and offspring characteristics, explain the ADHD-marital problems association. Offspring ADHD predicted parental divorce and marital conflict. The associations were also robust when comparing differentially exposed identical twins to control for unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, when controlling for measured maternal and paternal psychopathology,when restricting the sample based on timing of parental divorce and ADHD onset, and when controlling for other forms of offspring psychopathology. Each of these controls rules out alternative explanations for the association. The results of the current study converge with those of prior research in suggesting that factors directly associated with offspring ADHD increase parental marital problems.

  1. Confounding of three binary-variables counterfactual model

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Jingwei; Hu, Shuang

    2011-01-01

    Confounding of three binary-variables counterfactual model is discussed in this paper. According to the effect between the control variable and the covariate variable, we investigate three counterfactual models: the control variable is independent of the covariate variable, the control variable has the effect on the covariate variable and the covariate variable affects the control variable. Using the ancillary information based on conditional independence hypotheses, the sufficient conditions...

  2. No evidence for thermal transgenerational plasticity in metabolism when minimizing the potential for confounding effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kielland, Ø N; Bech, C; Einum, S

    2017-01-11

    Environmental change may cause phenotypic changes that are inherited across generations through transgenerational plasticity (TGP). If TGP is adaptive, offspring fitness increases with an increasing match between parent and offspring environment. Here we test for adaptive TGP in somatic growth and metabolic rate in response to temperature in the clonal zooplankton Daphnia pulex Animals of the first focal generation experienced thermal transgenerational 'mismatch' (parental and offspring temperatures differed), whereas conditions of the next two generations matched the (grand)maternal thermal conditions. Adjustments of metabolic rate occurred during the lifetime of the first generation (i.e. within-generation plasticity). However, no further change was observed during the subsequent two generations, as would be expected under TGP. Furthermore, we observed no tendency for increased juvenile somatic growth (a trait highly correlated with fitness in Daphnia) over the three generations when reared at new temperatures. These results are inconsistent with existing studies of thermal TGP, and we describe how previous experimental designs may have confounded TGP with within-generation plasticity and selective mortality. We suggest that the current evidence for thermal TGP is weak. To increase our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary role of TGP, future studies should more carefully identify possible confounding factors. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Sensitivity analysis for direct and indirect effects in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiba, Yasutaka

    2014-01-01

    Questions of mediation are often of interest in reasoning about mechanisms, and methods have been developed to address these questions. However, these methods make strong assumptions about the absence of confounding. Even if exposure is randomized, there may be mediator-outcome confounding variables. Inference about direct and indirect effects is particularly challenging if these mediator-outcome confounders are affected by the exposure because in this case these effects are not identified irrespective of whether data is available on these exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. In this paper, we provide a sensitivity analysis technique for natural direct and indirect effects that is applicable even if there are mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. We give techniques for both the difference and risk ratio scales and compare the technique to other possible approaches. PMID:25580387

  4. Correction of confounding bias in non-randomized studies by appropriate weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmoor, Claudia; Gall, Christine; Stampf, Susanne; Graf, Erika

    2011-03-01

    In non-randomized studies, the assessment of a causal effect of treatment or exposure on outcome is hampered by possible confounding. Applying multiple regression models including the effects of treatment and covariates on outcome is the well-known classical approach to adjust for confounding. In recent years other approaches have been promoted. One of them is based on the propensity score and considers the effect of possible confounders on treatment as a relevant criterion for adjustment. Another proposal is based on using an instrumental variable. Here inference relies on a factor, the instrument, which affects treatment but is thought to be otherwise unrelated to outcome, so that it mimics randomization. Each of these approaches can basically be interpreted as a simple reweighting scheme, designed to address confounding. The procedures will be compared with respect to their fundamental properties, namely, which bias they aim to eliminate, which effect they aim to estimate, and which parameter is modelled. We will expand our overview of methods for analysis of non-randomized studies to methods for analysis of randomized controlled trials and show that analyses of both study types may target different effects and different parameters. The considerations will be illustrated using a breast cancer study with a so-called Comprehensive Cohort Study design, including a randomized controlled trial and a non-randomized study in the same patient population as sub-cohorts. This design offers ideal opportunities to discuss and illustrate the properties of the different approaches. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Confounding and Statistical Significance of Indirect Effects: Childhood Adversity, Education, Smoking, and Anxious and Depressive Symptomatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashhood Ahmed Sheikh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The life course perspective, the risky families model, and stress-and-coping models provide the rationale for assessing the role of smoking as a mediator in the association between childhood adversity and anxious and depressive symptomatology (ADS in adulthood. However, no previous study has assessed the independent mediating role of smoking in the association between childhood adversity and ADS in adulthood. Moreover, the importance of mediator-response confounding variables has rarely been demonstrated empirically in social and psychiatric epidemiology. The aim of this paper was to (i assess the mediating role of smoking in adulthood in the association between childhood adversity and ADS in adulthood, and (ii assess the change in estimates due to different mediator-response confounding factors (education, alcohol intake, and social support. The present analysis used data collected from 1994 to 2008 within the framework of the Tromsø Study (N = 4,530, a representative prospective cohort study of men and women. Seven childhood adversities (low mother's education, low father's education, low financial conditions, exposure to passive smoke, psychological abuse, physical abuse, and substance abuse distress were used to create a childhood adversity score. Smoking status was measured at a mean age of 54.7 years (Tromsø IV, and ADS in adulthood was measured at a mean age of 61.7 years (Tromsø V. Mediation analysis was used to assess the indirect effect and the proportion of mediated effect (% of childhood adversity on ADS in adulthood via smoking in adulthood. The test-retest reliability of smoking was good (Kappa: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.63; 0.71 in this sample. Childhood adversity was associated with a 10% increased risk of smoking in adulthood (Relative risk: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03; 1.18, and both childhood adversity and smoking in adulthood were associated with greater levels of ADS in adulthood (p < 0.001. Smoking in adulthood did not significantly

  6. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-12-28

    Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which

  7. The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Yu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Methods Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM were compared. The “do-calculus” was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Results Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal

  8. Accessibility of observable and unobservable characteristics in autobiographical memories of recent and distant past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karylowski, Jerzy J; Mrozinski, Blazej

    2017-02-01

    Self-reports regarding how people visualise themselves during events that occurred in the past show that for events from the distant past individuals report assuming a more external perspective than for events from the recent past [Nigro, G., & Neisser, U. (1983). Point of view in personal memories. Cognitive Psychology, 15, 467-482; Pronin, E., & Ross, L. (2006). Temporal differences in trait self-ascription. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 90, 197-209]. Thus it appears that, with the passage of time, representations of self embodied in memories of past events lose their position of an insider and assume a more ordinary position of self as an object seen from the perspective of an outside observer. The purpose of the present experiment was to examine this shift using a performance-based measure of accessibility. Results showed that self-judgements regarding unobservable, covert characteristics were faster for recent-compared to more distant-autobiographical events. However, self-judgements regarding observable, overt characteristics were faster for more distant events. This suggests an accessibility-based mechanism underlying the shift from internal to the relatively more external perspective in forming self-images related to the distant past.

  9. Prenatal Paracetamol Exposure and Wheezing in Childhood: Causation or Confounding?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrica Migliore

    Full Text Available Several studies have reported an increased risk of wheezing in the children of mothers who used paracetamol during pregnancy. We evaluated to what extent this association is explained by confounding.We investigated the association between maternal paracetamol use in the first and third trimester of pregnancy and ever wheezing or recurrent wheezing/asthma in infants in the NINFEA cohort study. Risks ratios (RR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were estimated after adjustment for confounders, including maternal infections and antibiotic use during pregnancy.The prevalence of maternal paracetamol use was 30.6% during the first and 36.7% during the third trimester of pregnancy. The prevalence of ever wheezing and recurrent wheezing/asthma was 16.9% and 5.6%, respectively. After full adjustment, the RR for ever wheezing decreased from 1.25 [1.07-1.47] to 1.10 [0.94-1.30] in the first, and from 1.26 [1.08-1.47] to 1.10 [0.93-1.29] in the third trimester. A similar pattern was observed for recurrent wheezing/asthma. Duration of maternal paracetamol use was not associated with either outcome. Further analyses on paracetamol use for three non-infectious disorders (sciatica, migraine, and headache revealed no increased risk of wheezing in children.The association between maternal paracetamol use during pregnancy and infant wheezing is mainly, if not completely explained by confounding.

  10. Investigating the Idoho oil spillage into Lagos: Some confounding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... caused by these spillages must consider the socio-economic characteristics of the population as this may reveal a true picture of the event and facilitate proper interpretation of the result. Keywords: Toxicity, Idoho Oil Spillage, Confounders, Socio economic factors. Nigerian Journal of Health and Biomedical Sciences Vol.

  11. Hypnotics and mortality – confounding by disease and socioeconomic position

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kriegbaum, Margit; Hendriksen, Carsten; Vass, Mikkel

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this Cohort study of 10 527 Danish men was to investigate the extent to which the association between hypnotics and mortality is confounded by several markers of disease and living conditions. Methods Exposure was purchases of hypnotics 1995–1999 (“low users” (150 or less defined......% confidence intervals (CI). Results When covariates were entered one at a time, the changes in HR estimates showed that psychiatric disease, socioeconomic position and substance abuse reduced the excess risk by 17–36% in the low user group and by 45–52% in the high user group. Somatic disease, intelligence...... point at psychiatric disease, substance abuse and socioeconomic position as potential confounding factors partly explaining the association between use of hypnotics and all-cause mortality....

  12. Effect decomposition in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Robins, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Methods from causal mediation analysis have generalized the traditional approach to direct and indirect effects in the epidemiologic and social science literature by allowing for interaction and non-linearities. However, the methods from the causal inference literature have themselves been subject to a major limitation in that the so-called natural direct and indirect effects that are employed are not identified from data whenever there is a variable that is affected by the exposure, which also confounds the relationship between the mediator and the outcome. In this paper we describe three alternative approaches to effect decomposition that give quantities that can be interpreted as direct and indirect effects, and that can be identified from data even in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder. We describe a simple weighting-based estimation method for each of these three approaches, illustrated with data from perinatal epidemiology. The methods described here can shed insight into pathways and questions of mediation even when an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder is present. PMID:24487213

  13. Carotta: Revealing Hidden Confounder Markers in Metabolic Breath Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Christin Hauschild

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Computational breath analysis is a growing research area aiming at identifying volatile organic compounds (VOCs in human breath to assist medical diagnostics of the next generation. While inexpensive and non-invasive bioanalytical technologies for metabolite detection in exhaled air and bacterial/fungal vapor exist and the first studies on the power of supervised machine learning methods for profiling of the resulting data were conducted, we lack methods to extract hidden data features emerging from confounding factors. Here, we present Carotta, a new cluster analysis framework dedicated to uncovering such hidden substructures by sophisticated unsupervised statistical learning methods. We study the power of transitivity clustering and hierarchical clustering to identify groups of VOCs with similar expression behavior over most patient breath samples and/or groups of patients with a similar VOC intensity pattern. This enables the discovery of dependencies between metabolites. On the one hand, this allows us to eliminate the effect of potential confounding factors hindering disease classification, such as smoking. On the other hand, we may also identify VOCs associated with disease subtypes or concomitant diseases. Carotta is an open source software with an intuitive graphical user interface promoting data handling, analysis and visualization. The back-end is designed to be modular, allowing for easy extensions with plugins in the future, such as new clustering methods and statistics. It does not require much prior knowledge or technical skills to operate. We demonstrate its power and applicability by means of one artificial dataset. We also apply Carotta exemplarily to a real-world example dataset on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. While the artificial data are utilized as a proof of concept, we will demonstrate how Carotta finds candidate markers in our real dataset associated with confounders rather than the primary disease (COPD

  14. Do patient and practice characteristics confound age-group differences in preferences for general practice care? A quantitative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous research showed inconsistent results regarding the relationship between the age of patients and preference statements regarding GP care. This study investigates whether elderly patients have different preference scores and ranking orders concerning 58 preference statements for GP care than younger patients. Moreover, this study examines whether patient characteristics and practice location may confound the relationship between age and the categorisation of a preference score as very important. Methods Data of the Consumer Quality Index GP Care were used, which were collected in 32 general practices in the Netherlands. The rank order and preference score were calculated for 58 preference statements for four age groups (0–30, 31–50, 51–74, 75 years and older). Using chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses, it was investigated whether a significant relationship between age and preference score was confounded by patient characteristics and practice location. Results Elderly patients did not have a significant different ranking order for the preference statements than the other three age groups (r = 0.0193; p = 0.41). However, in 53% of the statements significant differences were found in preference score between the four age groups. Elderly patients categorized significantly less preference statements as ‘very important’. In most cases, the significant relationships were not confounded by gender, education, perceived health, the number of GP contacts and location of the GP practice. Conclusion The preferences of elderly patients for GP care concern the same items as younger patients. However, their preferences are less strong, which cannot be ascribed to gender, education, perceived health, the number of GP contacts and practice location. PMID:23800156

  15. Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome this limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

  16. Confounding by dietary pattern of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

  17. Interpretational confounding is due to misspecification, not to type of indicator: comment on Howell, Breivik, and Wilcox (2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A

    2007-06-01

    R. D. Howell, E. Breivik, and J. B. Wilcox (2007) have argued that causal (formative) indicators are inherently subject to interpretational confounding. That is, they have argued that using causal (formative) indicators leads the empirical meaning of a latent variable to be other than that assigned to it by a researcher. Their critique of causal (formative) indicators rests on several claims: (a) A latent variable exists apart from the model when there are effect (reflective) indicators but not when there are causal (formative) indicators, (b) causal (formative) indicators need not have the same consequences, (c) causal (formative) indicators are inherently subject to interpretational confounding, and (d) a researcher cannot detect interpretational confounding when using causal (formative) indicators. This article shows that each claim is false. Rather, interpretational confounding is more a problem of structural misspecification of a model combined with an underidentified model that leaves these misspecifications undetected. Interpretational confounding does not occur if the model is correctly specified whether a researcher has causal (formative) or effect (reflective) indicators. It is the validity of a model not the type of indicator that determines the potential for interpretational confounding. Copyright 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Familial confounding of the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring substance use and problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onofrio, Brian M; Rickert, Martin E; Langström, Niklas; Donahue, Kelly L; Coyne, Claire A; Larsson, Henrik; Ellingson, Jarrod M; Van Hulle, Carol A; Iliadou, Anastasia N; Rathouz, Paul J; Lahey, Benjamin B; Lichtenstein, Paul

    2012-11-01

    Previous epidemiological, animal, and human cognitive neuroscience research suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy (SDP) causes increased risk of substance use/problems in offspring. To determine the extent to which the association between SDP and offspring substance use/problems depends on confounded familial background factors by using a quasi-experimental design. We used 2 separate samples from the United States and Sweden. The analyses prospectively predicted multiple indices of substance use and problems while controlling for statistical covariates and comparing differentially exposed siblings to minimize confounding. Offspring of a representative sample of women in the United States (sample 1) and the total Swedish population born during the period from January 1, 1983, to December 31, 1995 (sample 2). Adolescent offspring of the women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (n = 6904) and all offspring born in Sweden during the 13-year period (n = 1,187,360). Self-reported adolescent alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use and early onset (before 14 years of age) of each substance (sample 1) and substance-related convictions and hospitalizations for an alcohol- or other drug-related problem (sample 2). The same pattern emerged for each index of substance use/problems across the 2 samples. At the population level, maternal SDP predicted every measure of offspring substance use/problems in both samples, ranging from adolescent alcohol use (hazard ratio [HR](moderate), 1.32 [95% CI, 1.22-1.43]; HR(high), 1.33 [1.17-1.53]) to a narcotics-related conviction (HR(moderate), 2.23 [2.14-2.31]; HR(high), 2.97 [2.86-3.09]). When comparing differentially exposed siblings to minimize genetic and environmental confounds, however, the association between SDP and each measure of substance use/problems was minimal and not statistically significant. The association between maternal SDP and offspring substance use/problems is likely due to familial background

  19. Using ecological propensity score to adjust for missing confounders in small area studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingbo; Pirani, Monica; Hansell, Anna L; Richardson, Sylvia; Blangiardo, Marta

    2017-11-09

    Small area ecological studies are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the impact of area level risk factors on health outcomes when data are only available in an aggregated form. However, the resulting estimates are often biased due to unmeasured confounders, which typically are not available from the standard administrative registries used for these studies. Extra information on confounders can be provided through external data sets such as surveys or cohorts, where the data are available at the individual level rather than at the area level; however, such data typically lack the geographical coverage of administrative registries. We develop a framework of analysis which combines ecological and individual level data from different sources to provide an adjusted estimate of area level risk factors which is less biased. Our method (i) summarizes all available individual level confounders into an area level scalar variable, which we call ecological propensity score (EPS), (ii) implements a hierarchical structured approach to impute the values of EPS whenever they are missing, and (iii) includes the estimated and imputed EPS into the ecological regression linking the risk factors to the health outcome. Through a simulation study, we show that integrating individual level data into small area analyses via EPS is a promising method to reduce the bias intrinsic in ecological studies due to unmeasured confounders; we also apply the method to a real case study to evaluate the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease hospital admissions in Greater London. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  20. The Association Between Headaches and Temporomandibular Disorders is Confounded by Bruxism and Somatic Symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Hedwig A; Speksnijder, Caroline M; Engelbert, Raoul H H; Lobbezoo, Frank; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W G; Visscher, Corine M

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this observational study was to establish the possible presence of confounders on the association between temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and headaches in a patient population from a TMD and Orofacial Pain Clinic. Several subtypes of headaches have been diagnosed: self-reported headache, (probable) migraine, (probable) tension-type headache, and secondary headache attributed to TMD. The presence of TMD was subdivided into 2 subtypes: painful TMD and function-related TMD. The associations between the subtypes of TMD and headaches were evaluated by single regression models. To study the influence of possible confounding factors on this association, the regression models were extended with age, sex, bruxism, stress, depression, and somatic symptoms. Of the included patients (n=203), 67.5% experienced headaches. In the subsample of patients with a painful TMD (n=58), the prevalence of self-reported headaches increased to 82.8%. The associations found between self-reported headache and (1) painful TMD and (2) function-related TMD were confounded by the presence of somatic symptoms. For probable migraine, both somatic symptoms and bruxism confounded the initial association found with painful TMD. The findings of this study imply that there is a central working mechanism overlapping TMD and headache. Health care providers should not regard these disorders separately, but rather look at the bigger picture to appreciate the complex nature of the diagnostic and therapeutic process.

  1. Which Propensity Score Method Best Reduces Confounder Imbalance? An Example From a Retrospective Evaluation of a Childhood Obesity Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Krista; Jia, Haomiao; Smaldone, Arlene

    Propensity score (PS) methods are increasingly being employed by researchers to reduce bias arising from confounder imbalance when using observational data to examine intervention effects. The purpose of this study was to examine PS theory and methodology and compare application of three PS methods (matching, stratification, weighting) to determine which best improves confounder balance. Baseline characteristics of a sample of 20,518 school-aged children with severe obesity (of whom 1,054 received an obesity intervention) were assessed prior to PS application. Three PS methods were then applied to the data to determine which showed the greatest improvement in confounder balance between the intervention and control group. The effect of each PS method on the outcome variable-body mass index percentile change at one year-was also examined. SAS 9.4 and Comprehensive Meta-analysis statistical software were used for analyses. Prior to PS adjustment, the intervention and control groups differed significantly on seven of 11 potential confounders. PS matching removed all differences. PS stratification and weighting both removed one difference but created two new differences. Sensitivity analyses did not change these results. Body mass index percentile at 1 year decreased in both groups. The size of the decrease was smaller in the intervention group, and the estimate of the decrease varied by PS method. Selection of a PS method should be guided by insight from statistical theory and simulation experiments, in addition to observed improvement in confounder balance. For this data set, PS matching worked best to correct confounder imbalance. Because each method varied in correcting confounder imbalance, we recommend that multiple PS methods be compared for ability to improve confounder balance before implementation in evaluating treatment effects in observational data.

  2. Exact sampling of the unobserved covariates in Bayesian spline models for measurement error problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadra, Anindya; Carroll, Raymond J

    2016-07-01

    In truncated polynomial spline or B-spline models where the covariates are measured with error, a fully Bayesian approach to model fitting requires the covariates and model parameters to be sampled at every Markov chain Monte Carlo iteration. Sampling the unobserved covariates poses a major computational problem and usually Gibbs sampling is not possible. This forces the practitioner to use a Metropolis-Hastings step which might suffer from unacceptable performance due to poor mixing and might require careful tuning. In this article we show for the cases of truncated polynomial spline or B-spline models of degree equal to one, the complete conditional distribution of the covariates measured with error is available explicitly as a mixture of double-truncated normals, thereby enabling a Gibbs sampling scheme. We demonstrate via a simulation study that our technique performs favorably in terms of computational efficiency and statistical performance. Our results indicate up to 62 and 54 % increase in mean integrated squared error efficiency when compared to existing alternatives while using truncated polynomial splines and B-splines respectively. Furthermore, there is evidence that the gain in efficiency increases with the measurement error variance, indicating the proposed method is a particularly valuable tool for challenging applications that present high measurement error. We conclude with a demonstration on a nutritional epidemiology data set from the NIH-AARP study and by pointing out some possible extensions of the current work.

  3. Some confounding factors in the study of mortality and occupational exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1982-01-01

    With the recent interest in the study of occupational exposures, the impact of certain selective biases in the groups studied is a matter of some concern. In this paper, data from the Hanford nuclear facility population (southeastern Washington State, 1947-1976), which includes many radiation workers, are used to illustrate a method for examining the effect on mortality of such potentially confounding variables as calendar year, length of time since entering the industry, employment status, length of employment, job category, and initial employment year. The analysis, which is based on the Mantel-Haenszel procedure as adapted for a prospective study, differs from most previous studies of occupational variables which have relied primarily on comparing standardized mortality ratios (utilizing an external control) for various subgroups of the population. Results of this analysis confirm other studies in that reduced death rates are observed for early years of follow-up and for those with higher socioeconomic status (as indicated by job category). In addition, workers employed less than two years and especially terminated workers are found to have elevated death rates as compared with the remainder of the study population. It is important that such correlations be taken into account in planning and interpreting analyses of the effects of occupational exposure

  4. LD Score regression distinguishes confounding from polygenicity in genome-wide association studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan K.; Loh, Po-Ru; Finucane, Hilary K.

    2015-01-01

    Both polygenicity (many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, can yield an inflated distribution of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from...

  5. Marine oils: Complex, confusing, confounded?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin B. Albert

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Marine oils gained prominence following the report that Greenland Inuits who consumed a high-fat diet rich in long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs also had low rates of cardiovascular disease. Marine n-3 PUFAs have since become a billion dollar industry, which will continue to grow based on current trends. However, recent systematic reviews question the health benefits of marine oil supplements, particularly in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Marine oils constitute an extremely complex dietary intervention for a number of reasons: i the many chemical compounds they contain; ii the many biological processes affected by n-3 PUFAs; iii their tendency to deteriorate and form potentially toxic primary and secondary oxidation products; and iv inaccuracy in the labelling of consumer products. These complexities may confound the clinical literature, limiting the ability to make substantive conclusions for some key health outcomes. Thus, there is a pressing need for clinical trials using marine oils whose composition has been independently verified and demonstrated to be minimally oxidised. Without such data, it is premature to conclude that n-3 PUFA rich supplements are ineffective.

  6. Quantifying the potential role of unmeasured confounders : the example of influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenwold, R H H; Hoes, A W; Nichol, K L; Hak, E

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The validity of non-randomized studies using healthcare databases is often challenged because they lack information on potentially important confounders, such as functional health status and socioeconomic status. In a study quantifying the effects of influenza vaccination among

  7. The relationship between urinary tract infection during pregnancy and preeclampsia: causal, confounded or spurious?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmon, Anatte; Sheiner, Eyal

    2008-06-01

    Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal morbidity, although its precise etiology remains elusive. A number of studies suggest that urinary tract infection (UTI) during the course of gestation is associated with elevated risk for preeclampsia, while others have failed to prove such an association. In our medical center, pregnant women who were exposed to at least one UTI episode during pregnancy were 1.3 times more likely to have mild preeclampsia and 1.8 times more likely to have severe preeclampsia as compared to unexposed women. Our results are based on univariate analyses and are not adjusted for potential confounders. This editorial aims to discuss the relationship between urinary tract infection and preeclampsia, as well as examine the current problems regarding the interpretation of this association. Although the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia has been demonstrated in studies with various designs, carried-out in a variety of settings, the nature of this association is unclear. By taking into account timeline, dose-response effects, treatment influences, and potential confounders, as well as by neutralizing potential biases, future studies may be able to clarify the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia by determining if it is causal, confounded, or spurious.

  8. The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Matthew S; Kenny, David A; MacKinnon, David P

    2016-01-01

    Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator-to-outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. To explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the effect of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect.

  9. The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Matthew S.; Kenny, David A.; MacKinnon, David P.

    2016-01-01

    Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator to outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. In order to explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the impact of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect. PMID:27739903

  10. Differential recall bias, intermediate confounding, and mediation analysis in life course epidemiology: An analytic framework with empirical example.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashhood Ahmed Sheikh

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms by which childhood socioeconomic status (CSES affects adult mental health, general health, and well-being are not clear. Moreover, the analytical assumptions employed when assessing mediation in social and psychiatric epidemiology are rarely explained. The aim of this paper was to explain the intermediate confounding assumption, and to quantify differential recall bias in the association between CSES, childhood abuse, and mental health (SCL-10, general health (EQ-5D, and subjective well-being (SWLS. Furthermore, we assessed the mediating role of psychological and physical abuse in the association between CSES and mental health, general health, and well-being; and the influence of differential recall bias in the estimation of total effects, direct effects, and proportion of mediated effects. The assumptions employed when assessing mediation are explained with reference to a causal diagram. Poisson regression models (relative risk, RR and 99% CI were used to assess the association between CSES and psychological and physical abuse in childhood. Mediation analysis (difference method was used to assess the indirect effect of CSES (through psychological and physical abuse in childhood on mental health, general health, and well-being. Psychological abuse and physical abuse mediated the association between CSES and adult mental health, general health, and well-being (6-16% among men and 7-14% among women, p<0.001. The results suggest that up to 27% of the association between CSES and childhood abuse, 23% of the association between childhood abuse, and mental health, general health, and well-being, and 44% of the association between CSES and mental health, general health, and well-being is driven by differential recall bias. Assessing mediation with cross-sectional data (exposure, mediator, and outcome measured at the same time showed that the total effects and direct effects were vastly overestimated (biased upwards. Consequently, the

  11. Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

    2017-12-29

    Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind

  12. A comparison of Bayesian and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCandless, Lawrence C; Gustafson, Paul

    2017-08-15

    Bias from unmeasured confounding is a persistent concern in observational studies, and sensitivity analysis has been proposed as a solution. In the recent years, probabilistic sensitivity analysis using either Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (MCSA) or Bayesian sensitivity analysis (BSA) has emerged as a practical analytic strategy when there are multiple bias parameters inputs. BSA uses Bayes theorem to formally combine evidence from the prior distribution and the data. In contrast, MCSA samples bias parameters directly from the prior distribution. Intuitively, one would think that BSA and MCSA ought to give similar results. Both methods use similar models and the same (prior) probability distributions for the bias parameters. In this paper, we illustrate the surprising finding that BSA and MCSA can give very different results. Specifically, we demonstrate that MCSA can give inaccurate uncertainty assessments (e.g. 95% intervals) that do not reflect the data's influence on uncertainty about unmeasured confounding. Using a data example from epidemiology and simulation studies, we show that certain combinations of data and prior distributions can result in dramatic prior-to-posterior changes in uncertainty about the bias parameters. This occurs because the application of Bayes theorem in a non-identifiable model can sometimes rule out certain patterns of unmeasured confounding that are not compatible with the data. Consequently, the MCSA approach may give 95% intervals that are either too wide or too narrow and that do not have 95% frequentist coverage probability. Based on our findings, we recommend that analysts use BSA for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Pre-Analytical Parameters Affecting Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Measurement in Plasma: Identifying Confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Johanna M; Boehringer, Daniel; Deissler, Heidrun L; Faerber, Lothar; Goepfert, Jens C; Heiduschka, Peter; Kleeberger, Susannah M; Klettner, Alexa; Krohne, Tim U; Schneiderhan-Marra, Nicole; Ziemssen, Focke; Stahl, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) is intensively investigated in various medical fields. However, comparing VEGF-A measurements is difficult because sample acquisition and pre-analytic procedures differ between studies. We therefore investigated which variables act as confounders of VEGF-A measurements. Following a standardized protocol, blood was taken at three clinical sites from six healthy participants (one male and one female participant at each center) twice one week apart. The following pre-analytical parameters were varied in order to analyze their impact on VEGF-A measurements: analyzing center, anticoagulant (EDTA vs. PECT / CTAD), cannula (butterfly vs. neonatal), type of centrifuge (swing-out vs. fixed-angle), time before and after centrifugation, filling level (completely filled vs. half-filled tubes) and analyzing method (ELISA vs. multiplex bead array). Additionally, intrapersonal variations over time and sex differences were explored. Statistical analysis was performed using a linear regression model. The following parameters were identified as statistically significant independent confounders of VEGF-A measurements: analyzing center, anticoagulant, centrifuge, analyzing method and sex of the proband. The following parameters were no significant confounders in our data set: intrapersonal variation over one week, cannula, time before and after centrifugation and filling level of collection tubes. VEGF-A measurement results can be affected significantly by the identified pre-analytical parameters. We recommend the use of CTAD anticoagulant, a standardized type of centrifuge and one central laboratory using the same analyzing method for all samples.

  14. Pre-Analytical Parameters Affecting Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Measurement in Plasma: Identifying Confounders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M Walz

    Full Text Available Vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A is intensively investigated in various medical fields. However, comparing VEGF-A measurements is difficult because sample acquisition and pre-analytic procedures differ between studies. We therefore investigated which variables act as confounders of VEGF-A measurements.Following a standardized protocol, blood was taken at three clinical sites from six healthy participants (one male and one female participant at each center twice one week apart. The following pre-analytical parameters were varied in order to analyze their impact on VEGF-A measurements: analyzing center, anticoagulant (EDTA vs. PECT / CTAD, cannula (butterfly vs. neonatal, type of centrifuge (swing-out vs. fixed-angle, time before and after centrifugation, filling level (completely filled vs. half-filled tubes and analyzing method (ELISA vs. multiplex bead array. Additionally, intrapersonal variations over time and sex differences were explored. Statistical analysis was performed using a linear regression model.The following parameters were identified as statistically significant independent confounders of VEGF-A measurements: analyzing center, anticoagulant, centrifuge, analyzing method and sex of the proband. The following parameters were no significant confounders in our data set: intrapersonal variation over one week, cannula, time before and after centrifugation and filling level of collection tubes.VEGF-A measurement results can be affected significantly by the identified pre-analytical parameters. We recommend the use of CTAD anticoagulant, a standardized type of centrifuge and one central laboratory using the same analyzing method for all samples.

  15. Multisample adjusted U-statistics that account for confounding covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satten, Glen A; Kong, Maiying; Datta, Somnath

    2018-06-19

    Multisample U-statistics encompass a wide class of test statistics that allow the comparison of 2 or more distributions. U-statistics are especially powerful because they can be applied to both numeric and nonnumeric data, eg, ordinal and categorical data where a pairwise similarity or distance-like measure between categories is available. However, when comparing the distribution of a variable across 2 or more groups, observed differences may be due to confounding covariates. For example, in a case-control study, the distribution of exposure in cases may differ from that in controls entirely because of variables that are related to both exposure and case status and are distributed differently among case and control participants. We propose to use individually reweighted data (ie, using the stratification score for retrospective data or the propensity score for prospective data) to construct adjusted U-statistics that can test the equality of distributions across 2 (or more) groups in the presence of confounding covariates. Asymptotic normality of our adjusted U-statistics is established and a closed form expression of their asymptotic variance is presented. The utility of our approach is demonstrated through simulation studies, as well as in an analysis of data from a case-control study conducted among African-Americans, comparing whether the similarity in haplotypes (ie, sets of adjacent genetic loci inherited from the same parent) occurring in a case and a control participant differs from the similarity in haplotypes occurring in 2 control participants. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. An education gradient in health, a health gradient in education, or a confounded gradient in both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Jamie L; von Hippel, Paul T

    2016-04-01

    There is a positive gradient associating educational attainment with health, yet the explanation for this gradient is not clear. Does higher education improve health (causation)? Do the healthy become highly educated (selection)? Or do good health and high educational attainment both result from advantages established early in the life course (confounding)? This study evaluates these competing explanations by tracking changes in educational attainment and Self-rated Health (SRH) from age 15 to age 31 in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1997 cohort. Ordinal logistic regression confirms that high-SRH adolescents are more likely to become highly educated. This is partly because adolescent SRH is associated with early advantages including adolescents' academic performance, college plans, and family background (confounding); however, net of these confounders adolescent SRH still predicts adult educational attainment (selection). Fixed-effects longitudinal regression shows that educational attainment has little causal effect on SRH at age 31. Completion of a high school diploma or associate's degree has no effect on SRH, while completion of a bachelor's or graduate degree have effects that, though significant, are quite small (less than 0.1 points on a 5-point scale). While it is possible that educational attainment would have greater effect on health at older ages, at age 31 what we see is a health gradient in education, shaped primarily by selection and confounding rather than by a causal effect of education on health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jackson, D.; White, I.; Kostis, J.B.

    2009-01-01

    One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an...

  18. Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jackson, D.; White, I.; Kostis, J.B.; Wilson, A.C.; Folsom, A.R.; Feskens, E.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an

  19. Syphilis may be a confounding factor, not a causative agent, in syphilitic ALS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuk, Bert

    2016-01-01

    Based upon a review of published clinical observations regarding syphilitic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), I hypothesize that syphilis is actually a confounding factor, not a causative factor, in syphilitic ALS. Moreover, I propose that the successful treatment of ALS symptoms in patients with syphilitic ALS using penicillin G and hydrocortisone is an indirect consequence of the treatment regimen and is not due to the treatment of syphilis. Specifically, I propose that the observed effect is due to the various pharmacological activities of penicillin G ( e.g ., a GABA receptor antagonist) and/or the multifaceted pharmacological activity of hydrocortisone. The notion that syphilis may be a confounding factor in syphilitic ALS is highly relevant, as it suggests that treating ALS patients with penicillin G and hydrocortisone-regardless of whether they present with syphilitic ALS or non-syphilitic ALS-may be effective at treating this rapidly progressive, highly devastating disease.

  20. Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

    2010-01-01

    A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations

  1. Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

    2010-02-01

    A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations.

  2. Heterogeneity in white blood cells has potential to confound DNA methylation measurements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjorn T Adalsteinsson

    Full Text Available Epigenetic studies are commonly conducted on DNA from tissue samples. However, tissues are ensembles of cells that may each have their own epigenetic profile, and therefore inter-individual cellular heterogeneity may compromise these studies. Here, we explore the potential for such confounding on DNA methylation measurement outcomes when using DNA from whole blood. DNA methylation was measured using pyrosequencing-based methodology in whole blood (n = 50-179 and in two white blood cell fractions (n = 20, isolated using density gradient centrifugation, in four CGIs (CpG Islands located in genes HHEX (10 CpG sites assayed, KCNJ11 (8 CpGs, KCNQ1 (4 CpGs and PM20D1 (7 CpGs. Cellular heterogeneity (variation in proportional white blood cell counts of neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils and basophils, counted by an automated cell counter explained up to 40% (p<0.0001 of the inter-individual variation in whole blood DNA methylation levels in the HHEX CGI, but not a significant proportion of the variation in the other three CGIs tested. DNA methylation levels in the two cell fractions, polymorphonuclear and mononuclear cells, differed significantly in the HHEX CGI; specifically the average absolute difference ranged between 3.4-15.7 percentage points per CpG site. In the other three CGIs tested, methylation levels in the two fractions did not differ significantly, and/or the difference was more moderate. In the examined CGIs, methylation levels were highly correlated between cell fractions. In summary, our analysis detects region-specific differential DNA methylation between white blood cell subtypes, which can confound the outcome of whole blood DNA methylation measurements. Finally, by demonstrating the high correlation between methylation levels in cell fractions, our results suggest a possibility to use a proportional number of a single white blood cell type to correct for this confounding effect in analyses.

  3. Negative control exposure studies in the presence of measurement error: implications for attempted effect estimate calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Eleanor; Macdonald-Wallis, Corrie; Davey Smith, George

    2018-04-01

    Negative control exposure studies are increasingly being used in epidemiological studies to strengthen causal inference regarding an exposure-outcome association when unobserved confounding is thought to be present. Negative control exposure studies contrast the magnitude of association of the negative control, which has no causal effect on the outcome but is associated with the unmeasured confounders in the same way as the exposure, with the magnitude of the association of the exposure with the outcome. A markedly larger effect of the exposure on the outcome than the negative control on the outcome strengthens inference that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome. We investigate the effect of measurement error in the exposure and negative control variables on the results obtained from a negative control exposure study. We do this in models with continuous and binary exposure and negative control variables using analysis of the bias of the estimated coefficients and Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that measurement error in either the exposure or negative control variables can bias the estimated results from the negative control exposure study. Measurement error is common in the variables used in epidemiological studies; these results show that negative control exposure studies cannot be used to precisely determine the size of the effect of the exposure variable, or adequately adjust for unobserved confounding; however, they can be used as part of a body of evidence to aid inference as to whether a causal effect of the exposure on the outcome is present.

  4. A Comprehensive Analysis of the SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification and Confounding Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallager, Dennis Winge; Hansen, Lars Valentin; Dragsted, Casper Rokkjær

    2016-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional analyses on a consecutive, prospective cohort. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification to group patients by widely used health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) scores and examine possible...... to confounding. However, age group and aetiology had individual significant effects. CONCLUSION: The SRS-Schwab sagittal modifiers reliably grouped patients graded 0 versus + / +  + according to the most widely used HRQOL scores and the effects of increasing grade level on odds for worse ODI scores remained...... confounding variables. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification includes sagittal modifiers considered important for HRQOL and the clinical impact of the classification has been validated in patients from the International Spine Study Group database; however, equivocal...

  5. Overview of potential procedural and participant-related confounds for neuroimaging of the resting state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Niall W.; Northoff, Georg

    2013-01-01

    Studies of intrinsic brain activity in the resting state have become increasingly common. A productive discussion of what analysis methods are appropriate, of the importance of physiologic correction and of the potential interpretations of results has been ongoing. However, less attention has been paid to factors other than physiologic noise that may confound resting-state experiments. These range from straightforward factors, such as ensuring that participants are all instructed in the same manner, to more obscure participant-related factors, such as body weight. We provide an overview of such potentially confounding factors, along with some suggested approaches for minimizing their impact. A particular theme that emerges from the overview is the range of systematic differences between types of study groups (e.g., between patients and controls) that may influence resting-state study results. PMID:22964258

  6. Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Before and After Elimination of Factors That Can Confound the Prostate-Specific Antigen Level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jessica J.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Loffredo, Marian; D’Amico, Anthony V.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) velocity, like PSA level, can be confounded. In this study, we estimated the impact that confounding factors could have on correctly identifying a patient with a PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y. Methods and Materials: Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 50 men with newly diagnosed PC comprised the study cohort. We calculated and compared the false-positive and false-negative PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y rates for all men and those with low-risk disease using two approaches to calculate PSA velocity. First, we used PSA values obtained within 18 months of diagnosis; second, we used values within 18 months of diagnosis, substituting the prebiopsy PSA for a repeat, nonconfounded PSA that was obtained using the same assay and without confounders. Results: Using PSA levels pre-biopsy, 46% of all men had a PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y; whereas this value declined to 32% when substituting the last prebiopsy PSA for a repeat, nonconfounded PSA using the same assay and without confounders. The false-positive rate for PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y was 43% as compared with a false-negative rate of PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y of 11% (p = 0.0008) in the overall cohort. These respective values in the low-risk subgroup were 60% and 16.7% (p = 0.09). Conclusion: This study provides evidence to explain the discordance in cancer-specific outcomes among groups investigating the prognostic significance of PSA velocity >2 ng/ml/y, and highlights the importance of patient education on potential confounders of the PSA test before obtaining PSA levels.

  7. Everything that you have ever been told about assessment center ratings is confounded.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Duncan J R; Michaelides, George; Dewberry, Chris; Kim, Young-Jae

    2016-07-01

    Despite a substantial research literature on the influence of dimensions and exercises in assessment centers (ACs), the relative impact of these 2 sources of variance continues to raise uncertainties because of confounding. With confounded effects, it is not possible to establish the degree to which any 1 effect, including those related to exercises and dimensions, influences AC ratings. In the current study (N = 698) we used Bayesian generalizability theory to unconfound all of the possible effects contributing to variance in AC ratings. Our results show that ≤1.11% of the variance in AC ratings was directly attributable to behavioral dimensions, suggesting that dimension-related effects have no practical impact on the reliability of ACs. Even when taking aggregation level into consideration, effects related to general performance and exercises accounted for almost all of the reliable variance in AC ratings. The implications of these findings for recent dimension- and exercise-based perspectives on ACs are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Assessing Mediation Using Marginal Structural Models in the Presence of Confounding and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

    2012-01-01

    This article presents marginal structural models with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW…

  9. Confounding Underlies the Apparent Month of Birth Effect in Multiple Sclerosis

    OpenAIRE

    Fiddes, Barnaby; Wason, James; Kemppinen, Anu; Ban, Maria; Compston, Alastair; Sawcer, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Objective Several groups have reported apparent association between month of birth and multiple sclerosis. We sought to test the extent to which such studies might be confounded by extraneous variables such as year and place of birth. Methods Using national birth statistics from 2 continents, we assessed the evidence for seasonal variations in birth rate and tested the extent to which these are subject to regional and temporal variation. We then established the age and regional origin distrib...

  10. The Association between Headaches and Temporomandibular Disorders is Confounded by Bruxism and Somatic Complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Meer, Hedwig A.; Speksnijder, Caroline M.; Engelbert, Raoul; Lobbezoo, Frank; Nijhuis – van der Sanden, Maria W G; Visscher, Corine M.

    OBJECTIVES:: The objective of this observational study was to establish the possible presence of confounders on the association between temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and headaches in a patient population from a TMD and Orofacial Pain Clinic. METHODS:: Several subtypes of headaches were

  11. Controlling confounding by frailty when estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness using predictors of dependency in activities of daily living.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Henry T; McGrath, Leah J; Wyss, Richard; Ellis, Alan R; Stürmer, Til

    2017-12-01

    To improve control of confounding by frailty when estimating the effect of influenza vaccination on all-cause mortality by controlling for a published set of claims-based predictors of dependency in activities of daily living (ADL). Using Medicare claims data, a cohort of beneficiaries >65 years of age was followed from September 1, 2007, to April 12, 2008, with covariates assessed in the 6 months before follow-up. We estimated Cox proportional hazards models of all-cause mortality, with influenza vaccination as a time-varying exposure. We controlled for common demographics, comorbidities, and health care utilization variables and then added 20 ADL dependency predictors. To gauge residual confounding, we estimated pre-influenza season hazard ratios (HRs) between September 1, 2007 and January 5, 2008, which should be 1.0 in the absence of bias. A cohort of 2 235 140 beneficiaries was created, with a median follow-up of 224 days. Overall, 52% were vaccinated and 4% died during follow-up. During the pre-influenza season period, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and health care use resulted in a HR of 0.66 (0.64, 0.67). Adding the ADL dependency predictors moved the HR to 0.68 (0.67, 0.70). Controlling for demographics and ADL dependency predictors alone resulted in a HR of 0.68 (0.66, 0.70). Results were consistent with those in the literature, with significant uncontrolled confounding after adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, and health care use. Adding ADL dependency predictors moved HRs slightly closer to the null. Of the comorbidities, health care use variables, and ADL dependency predictors, the last set reduced confounding most. However, substantial uncontrolled confounding remained. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Personality Traits and Body Weight: Evidence Using Sibling Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinho

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Past research has shown that personality traits relate to body weight, but this relationship may be confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics such as genetic endowments. Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the association between personality traits, as measured by the Big Five taxonomy, and body weight among young adults is spurious owing to shared family background. Methods Participants were drawn from the full (n = 14,366) and family (n = 2,813) samples of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). The study employed family-fixed effects to eliminate shared family background factors that might affect personality traits and body weight simultaneously. Results Among the Big Five personality traits, only conscientiousness showed a robust association with body weight, including body mass index (BMI) and obesity risk. These results were robust to adjustments for family-fixed effects, which indicates that the association between conscientiousness and body weight is generally not confounded by unobserved family-level characteristics shared by siblings. A one-standard-deviation increase in conscientiousness was associated with a decrease in BMI by 0.89 (equivalent to a 2.5 kg decrease in weight for an individual with an average height of the sample) and a 12% reduction in the probability of being obese. This study also found some suggestive evidence of gender and racial/ethnic differences. The association between conscientiousness and obesity was larger and statistically significant only for women, and conscientiousness was most strongly associated with obesity among Hispanic people. Conclusion Conscientiousness is associated with decreased body weight net of unobserved background characteristics that are shared by siblings. The results suggest that interventions that develop personality traits may have “spillover effects”; in other words, they may also help reduce obesity. PMID

  13. Comorbidities, confounders, and the white matter transcriptome in chronic alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Greg T; Sheedy, Donna; Sheahan, Pam J; Kaplan, Warren; Kril, Jillian J

    2014-04-01

    Alcohol abuse is the world's third leading cause of disease and disability, and one potential sequel of chronic abuse is alcohol-related brain damage (ARBD). This clinically manifests as cognitive dysfunction and pathologically as atrophy of white matter (WM) in particular. The mechanism linking chronic alcohol intoxication with ARBD remains largely unknown but it is also complicated by common comorbidities such as liver damage and nutritional deficiencies. Liver cirrhosis, in particular, often leads to hepatic encephalopathy (HE), a primary glial disease. In a novel transcriptomic study, we targeted the WM only of chronic alcoholics in an attempt to tease apart the pathogenesis of ARBD. Specifically, in alcoholics with and without HE, we explored both the prefrontal and primary motor cortices, 2 regions that experience differential levels of neuronal loss. Our results suggest that HE, along with 2 confounders, gray matter contamination, and low RNA quality are major drivers of gene expression in ARBD. All 3 exceeded the effects of alcohol itself. In particular, low-quality RNA samples were characterized by an up-regulation of translation machinery, while HE was associated with a down-regulation of mitochondrial energy metabolism pathways. The findings in HE alcoholics are consistent with the metabolic acidosis seen in this condition. In contrast non-HE alcoholics had widespread but only subtle changes in gene expression in their WM. Notwithstanding the latter result, this study demonstrates that significant confounders in transcriptomic studies of human postmortem brain tissue can be identified, quantified, and "removed" to reveal disease-specific signals. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  14. The Association Between Headaches and Temporomandibular Disorders is Confounded by Bruxism and Somatic Symptoms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, H.A. van der; Speksnijder, C.M.; Engelbert, R.H.; Lobbezoo, F.; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, M.W.G.; Visscher, C.M.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objective of this observational study was to establish the possible presence of confounders on the association between temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and headaches in a patient population from a TMD and Orofacial Pain Clinic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Several subtypes of headaches

  15. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

  16. Interrelated dynamics of health and poverty in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Buddelmeyer, Hielke; Cai, Lixin

    2009-01-01

    Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this study examines the joint dynamics of health and poverty in Australian families. Taking advantage of panel data, the modelling approach used in this study allows a better estimation of the causal relationship between health and poverty. The results indicate that the causality between health and poverty runs both ways and the relationship is confounded by unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, it is found that f...

  17. Target gene expression levels and competition between transfected and endogenous microRNAs are strong confounding factors in microRNA high-throughput experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background MicroRNA (miRNA) target genes tend to have relatively long and conserved 3' untranslated regions (UTRs), but to what degree these characteristics contribute to miRNA targeting is poorly understood. Different high-throughput experiments have, for example, shown that miRNAs preferentially regulate genes with both short and long 3' UTRs and that target site conservation is both important and irrelevant for miRNA targeting. Results We have analyzed several gene context-dependent features, including 3' UTR length, 3' UTR conservation, and messenger RNA (mRNA) expression levels, reported to have conflicting influence on miRNA regulation. By taking into account confounding factors such as technology-dependent experimental bias and competition between transfected and endogenous miRNAs, we show that two factors - target gene expression and competition - could explain most of the previously reported experimental differences. Moreover, we find that these and other target site-independent features explain about the same amount of variation in target gene expression as the target site-dependent features included in the TargetScan model. Conclusions Our results show that it is important to consider confounding factors when interpreting miRNA high throughput experiments and urge special caution when using microarray data to compare average regulatory effects between groups of genes that have different average gene expression levels. PMID:22325809

  18. An Integrated Account of Generalization across Objects and Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Shafto, Patrick; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2012-01-01

    Humans routinely make inductive generalizations about unobserved features of objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning often focus on inferences about a single object or feature: accounts of causal reasoning often focus on a single object with one or more unobserved features, and accounts of property induction often focus on a single…

  19. 'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score': testing the clinical validity of a new risk assessment instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise; Alkier Gildberg, Frederik

    2017-08-01

    Unstructured risk assessment, as well as confounders (underlying reasons for the patient's risk behaviour and alliance), risk behaviour, and parameters of alliance, have been identified as factors that prolong the duration of mechanical restraint among forensic mental health inpatients. To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical restraint. The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. The three sub-scales (Confounders, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items, and the instrument can be used to support the clinical decision-making regarding the possibility of releasing the patient from mechanical restraint. The present three studies have clinically validated a short MR-CRAS scale that is currently being psychometrically tested in a larger study.

  20. Interpersonal discrimination and depressive symptomatology: examination of several personality-related characteristics as potential confounders in a racial/ethnic heterogeneous adult sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Research suggests that reports of interpersonal discrimination result in poor mental health. Because personality characteristics may either confound or mediate the link between these reports and mental health, there is a need to disentangle its role in order to better understand the nature of discrimination-mental health association. We examined whether hostility, anger repression and expression, pessimism, optimism, and self-esteem served as confounders in the association between perceived interpersonal discrimination and CESD-based depressive symptoms in a race/ethnic heterogeneous probability-based sample of community-dwelling adults. Methods We employed a series of ordinary least squares regression analyses to examine the potential confounding effect of hostility, anger repression and expression, pessimism, optimism, and self-esteem between interpersonal discrimination and depressive symptoms. Results Hostility, anger repression, pessimism and self-esteem were significant as possible confounders of the relationship between interpersonal discrimination and depressive symptoms, together accounting for approximately 38% of the total association (beta: 0.1892, p interpersonal discrimination remained a positive predictor of depressive symptoms (beta: 0.1176, p personality characteristics in the association between reports of interpersonal discrimination and mental health, our results suggest that personality-related characteristics may serve as potential confounders. Nevertheless, our results also suggest that, net of these characteristics, reports of interpersonal discrimination are associated with poor mental health. PMID:24256578

  1. Medical versus surgical abortion: comparing satisfaction and potential confounders in a partly randomized study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rørbye, Christina; Nørgaard, Mogens; Nilas, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to compare satisfaction with medical and surgical abortion and to identify potential confounders affecting satisfaction. METHODS: 1033 women with gestational age (GA) < or = 63 days had either a medical (600 mg mifepristone followed by 1 mg gemeprost) or a sur...

  2. Consequences of exposure measurement error for confounder identification in environmental epidemiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    2003-01-01

    Non-differential measurement error in the exposure variable is known to attenuate the dose-response relationship. The amount of attenuation introduced in a given situation is not only a function of the precision of the exposure measurement but also depends on the conditional variance of the true...... exposure given the other independent variables. In addition, confounder effects may also be affected by the exposure measurement error. These difficulties in statistical model development are illustrated by examples from a epidemiological study performed in the Faroe Islands to investigate the adverse...

  3. Abnormal mineral metabolism and mortality in hemodialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism: evidence from marginal structural models used to adjust for time-dependent confounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukagawa, Masafumi; Kido, Ryo; Komaba, Hirotaka; Onishi, Yoshihiro; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Kurita, Noriaki; Fukuma, Shingo; Akizawa, Tadao; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2014-06-01

    Hemodialysis patients with mineral and bone disorders (MBDs) have an abnormally high relative risk of death, but their absolute risk of death is unknown. Further, previous studies have not accounted for possible time-dependent confounding of the association between MBD markers and death due to the effect of markers of MBD on treatments, which subsequently may affect MBD markers. Multicenter, 3-year, prospective, case-cohort study. 8,229 hemodialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (parathyroid hormone level ≥180 pg/mL and/or receiving vitamin D receptor activators) at 86 facilities in Japan. Serum phosphorus, calcium, and parathyroid hormone levels. All-cause mortality. Marginal structural models were used to compute absolute differences in all-cause mortality associated with different levels of predictors while accounting for time-dependent confounding. The association between phosphorus level and mortality appeared U-shaped, although only higher phosphorus level categories reached statistical significance: compared to those with phosphorus levels of 5.0-5.9 mg/dL (1.61-1.93 mmol/L), patients with the highest (≥9.0 mg/dL [≥2.90 mmol/L]) phosphorus levels had 9.4 excess deaths/100 person-years (rate ratio, 2.79 [95% CI, 1.26-6.15]), whereas no association was found for the lowest phosphorus category (secondary hyperparathyroidism. Copyright © 2014 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Examining confounding by diet in the association between perfluoroalkyl acids and serum cholesterol in pregnancy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skuladottir, Margret; Ramel, Alfons [Faculty of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Iceland, Reykjavik (Iceland); Unit for Nutrition Research, Landspitali National University Hospital, Reykjavik (Iceland); Rytter, Dorte [Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, Aarhus University, Aarhus (Denmark); Haug, Line Småstuen; Sabaredzovic, Azemira [Division of Environmental Medicine, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo (Norway); Bech, Bodil Hammer [Department of Public Health, Section for Epidemiology, Aarhus University, Aarhus (Denmark); Henriksen, Tine Brink [Pediatric Department, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark); Olsen, Sjurdur F. [Center for Fetal Programming, Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen (Denmark); Department of Nutrition, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Halldorsson, Thorhallur I., E-mail: tih@hi.is [Faculty of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Iceland, Reykjavik (Iceland); Unit for Nutrition Research, Landspitali National University Hospital, Reykjavik (Iceland); Center for Fetal Programming, Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2015-11-15

    Background: Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have consistently been associated with higher cholesterol levels in cross sectional studies. Concerns have, however, been raised about potential confounding by diet and clinical relevance. Objective: To examine the association between concentrations of PFOS and PFOA and total cholesterol in serum during pregnancy taking into considerations confounding by diet. Methods: 854 Danish women who gave birth in 1988–89 and provided a blood sample and reported their diet in week 30 of gestation. Results: Mean serum PFOS, PFOA and total cholesterol concentrations were 22.3 ng/mL, 4.1 ng/mL and 7.3 mmol/L, respectively. Maternal diet was a significant predictor of serum PFOS and PFOA concentrations. In particular intake of meat and meat products was positively associated while intake of vegetables was inversely associated (P for trend <0.01) with relative difference between the highest and lowest quartile in PFOS and PFOA concentrations ranging between 6% and 25% of mean values. After adjustment for dietary factors both PFOA and PFOS were positively and similarly associated with serum cholesterol (P for trend ≤0.01). For example, the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.39 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.09, 0.68) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of PFOA concentrations. In comparison the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.61 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.17, 1.05) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of saturated fat intake. Conclusion: In this study associations between PFOS and PFOA with serum cholesterol appeared unrelated to dietary intake and were similar in magnitude as the associations between saturated fat intake and serum cholesterol. - Highlights: • PFOS and PFOA have consistently been linked with raised serum cholesterol • Clinical relevance remains uncertain and confounding by diet has been suggested • The aim of this study was to address these issues in

  5. Examining confounding by diet in the association between perfluoroalkyl acids and serum cholesterol in pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skuladottir, Margret; Ramel, Alfons; Rytter, Dorte; Haug, Line Småstuen; Sabaredzovic, Azemira; Bech, Bodil Hammer; Henriksen, Tine Brink; Olsen, Sjurdur F.; Halldorsson, Thorhallur I.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have consistently been associated with higher cholesterol levels in cross sectional studies. Concerns have, however, been raised about potential confounding by diet and clinical relevance. Objective: To examine the association between concentrations of PFOS and PFOA and total cholesterol in serum during pregnancy taking into considerations confounding by diet. Methods: 854 Danish women who gave birth in 1988–89 and provided a blood sample and reported their diet in week 30 of gestation. Results: Mean serum PFOS, PFOA and total cholesterol concentrations were 22.3 ng/mL, 4.1 ng/mL and 7.3 mmol/L, respectively. Maternal diet was a significant predictor of serum PFOS and PFOA concentrations. In particular intake of meat and meat products was positively associated while intake of vegetables was inversely associated (P for trend <0.01) with relative difference between the highest and lowest quartile in PFOS and PFOA concentrations ranging between 6% and 25% of mean values. After adjustment for dietary factors both PFOA and PFOS were positively and similarly associated with serum cholesterol (P for trend ≤0.01). For example, the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.39 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.09, 0.68) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of PFOA concentrations. In comparison the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.61 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.17, 1.05) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of saturated fat intake. Conclusion: In this study associations between PFOS and PFOA with serum cholesterol appeared unrelated to dietary intake and were similar in magnitude as the associations between saturated fat intake and serum cholesterol. - Highlights: • PFOS and PFOA have consistently been linked with raised serum cholesterol • Clinical relevance remains uncertain and confounding by diet has been suggested • The aim of this study was to address these issues in

  6. Neighborhood disadvantage and obesity across childhood and adolescence: Evidence from the NLSY children and young adults cohort (1986-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, Steven Elías

    2016-05-01

    Previous research suggests that youth who grow up in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods face higher odds of becoming obese. Neighborhood effects scholars, meanwhile, have suggested that contextual influences may increase in strength as children age. This is the first study to examine whether developmental epochs moderate the effect of neighborhood disadvantage on obesity over time. I use thirteen waves of new restricted and geo-coded data on children ages 2-18 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Children and Young Adults. Bivariate and pooled logistic regression results suggest that neighborhood disadvantage has a stronger impact on adolescents' likelihood of becoming obese. Fixed effects models reveal that after adjusting for observed and unobserved confounders, adolescents continue to face higher odds of becoming obese due to the conditions associated with living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Moreover, as research on adults suggests, girls experience larger impacts of neighborhood disadvantage than boys. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Clinical and evoked pain, personality traits, and emotional states: can familial confounding explain the associations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, Eric; Poeschla, Brian; Dansie, Elizabeth; Succop, Annemarie; Chopko, Laura; Afari, Niloofar

    2015-01-01

    Pain is a complex phenomenon influenced by context and person-specific factors. Affective dimensions of pain involve both enduring personality traits and fleeting emotional states. We examined how personality traits and emotional states are linked with clinical and evoked pain in a twin sample. 99 female twin pairs were evaluated for clinical and evoked pain using the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) and dolorimetry, and completed the 120-item International Personality Item Pool (IPIP), the Positive and Negative Affect Scale (PANAS), and ratings of stress and mood. Using a co-twin control design we examined a) the relationship of personality traits and emotional states with clinical and evoked pain and b) whether genetics and common environment (i.e. familial factors) may account for the associations. Neuroticism was associated with the sensory component of the MPQ; this relationship was not confounded by familial factors. None of the emotional state measures was associated with the MPQ. PANAS negative affect was associated with lower evoked pressure pain threshold and tolerance; these associations were confounded by familial factors. There were no associations between IPIP traits and evoked pain. A relationship exists between neuroticism and clinical pain that is not confounded by familial factors. There is no similar relationship between negative emotional states and clinical pain. In contrast, the relationship between negative emotional states and evoked pain is strong while the relationship with enduring personality traits is weak. The relationship between negative emotional states and evoked pain appears to be non-causal and due to familial factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. On the Confounding Effect of Temperature on Chemical Shift-Encoded Fat Quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernando, Diego; Sharma, Samir D.; Kramer, Harald; Reeder, Scott B.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To characterize the confounding effect of temperature on chemical shift-encoded (CSE) fat quantification. Methods The proton resonance frequency of water, unlike triglycerides, depends on temperature. This leads to a temperature dependence of the spectral models of fat (relative to water) that are commonly used by CSE-MRI methods. Simulation analysis was performed for 1.5 Tesla CSE fat–water signals at various temperatures and echo time combinations. Oil–water phantoms were constructed and scanned at temperatures between 0 and 40°C using spectroscopy and CSE imaging at three echo time combinations. An explanted human liver, rejected for transplantation due to steatosis, was scanned using spectroscopy and CSE imaging. Fat–water reconstructions were performed using four different techniques: magnitude and complex fitting, with standard or temperature-corrected signal modeling. Results In all experiments, magnitude fitting with standard signal modeling resulted in large fat quantification errors. Errors were largest for echo time combinations near TEinit ≈ 1.3 ms, ΔTE ≈ 2.2 ms. Errors in fat quantification caused by temperature-related frequency shifts were smaller with complex fitting, and were avoided using a temperature-corrected signal model. Conclusion Temperature is a confounding factor for fat quantification. If not accounted for, it can result in large errors in fat quantifications in phantom and ex vivo acquisitions. PMID:24123362

  9. Role of environmental confounding in the association between FKBP5 and first-episode psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olesya eAjnakina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Failure to account for the etiological diversity that typically occurs in psychiatric cohorts may increase the potential for confounding, as a proportion of genetic variance will be specific to exposures that have variable distribution in cases. This study investigated whether minimizing the potential for such confounding strengthened the evidence for a genetic candidate currently unsupported at the genome-wide level.Methods: 291 first-episode psychosis cases from South London UK, and 218 unaffected controls were evaluated for a functional polymorphism at the rs1360780 locus in FKBP5. The relationship between FKBP5 and psychosis was modelled using logistic regression. Cannabis use (Cannabis Experiences Questionnaire and parental separation (Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse Questionnaire were modelled as confounders in the analysis.Results: Association at rs1360780 was not detected until the effects of the two environmental factors had been adjusted for in the model (OR=2.81, 95% CI 1.23-6.43, p=0.02. A statistical interaction between rs1360780 and parental separation was confirmed by stratified tests (OR=2.8, p=0.02 vs. OR=0.89, p=0.80. The genetic main effect was directionally-consistent with findings in other (stress-related clinical phenotypes. Moreover, the variation in effect magnitude was explained by the level of power associated with different cannabis constructs used in the model (r=0.95.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the extent to which genetic variants in FKBP5 can influence susceptibility to psychosis may depend on the other etiological factors involved. This finding requires further validation in other large independent cohorts. Potentially this work could have translational implications, as the ability to discriminate between genetic etiologies, based on a case-by-case understanding of exposure history would confer an important clinical advantage that would benefit the delivery of personalizable treatment

  10. phMRI: methodological considerations for mitigating potential confounding factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius H Bourke

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacological Magnetic Resonance Imaging (phMRI is a variant of conventional MRI that adds pharmacological manipulations in order to study the effects of drugs, or uses pharmacological probes to investigate basic or applied (e.g. clinical neuroscience questions. Issues that may confound the interpretation of results from various types of phMRI studies are briefly discussed, and a set of methodological strategies that can mitigate these problems are described. These include strategies that can be employed at every stage of investigation, from study design to interpretation of resulting data, and additional techniques suited for use with clinical populations are also featured. Pharmacological MRI is a challenging area of research that has both significant advantages and formidable difficulties, however with due consideration and use of these strategies many of the key obstacles can be overcome.

  11. Liquidity Constraints and the Centralized Home Mortgage Policy in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Cixiu

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates China's centralized mortgage policy in general, and evaluates the policy change in 2011: the minimum down payment was dramatically raised to 60% of the home price. Using our previously developed structural model, we recover the unobserved liquidity wealth levels of individ......This paper investigates China's centralized mortgage policy in general, and evaluates the policy change in 2011: the minimum down payment was dramatically raised to 60% of the home price. Using our previously developed structural model, we recover the unobserved liquidity wealth levels...

  12. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike S Fowler

    Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

  13. Interpersonal discrimination and depressive symptomatology: examination of several personality-related characteristics as potential confounders in a racial/ethnic heterogeneous adult sample

    OpenAIRE

    Hunte, Haslyn ER; King, Katherine; Hicken, Margaret; Lee, Hedwig; Lewis, Ten? T

    2013-01-01

    Background Research suggests that reports of interpersonal discrimination result in poor mental health. Because personality characteristics may either confound or mediate the link between these reports and mental health, there is a need to disentangle its role in order to better understand the nature of discrimination-mental health association. We examined whether hostility, anger repression and expression, pessimism, optimism, and self-esteem served as confounders in the association between ...

  14. Neuropsychological functioning in older people with type 2 diabetes: the effect of controlling for confounding factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asimakopoulou, K G; Hampson, S E; Morrish, N J

    2002-04-01

    Neuropsychological functioning was examined in a group of 33 older (mean age 62.40 +/- 9.62 years) people with Type 2 diabetes (Group 1) and 33 non-diabetic participants matched with Group 1 on age, sex, premorbid intelligence and presence of hypertension and cardio/cerebrovascular conditions (Group 2). Data statistically corrected for confounding factors obtained from the diabetic group were compared with the matched control group. The results suggested small cognitive deficits in diabetic people's verbal memory and mental flexibility (Logical Memory A and SS7). No differences were seen between the two samples in simple and complex visuomotor attention, sustained complex visual attention, attention efficiency, mental double tracking, implicit memory, and self-reported memory problems. These findings indicate minimal cognitive impairment in relatively uncomplicated Type 2 diabetes and demonstrate the importance of control and matching for confounding factors.

  15. Accounting for measurement reliability to improve the quality of inference in dental microhardness research: a worked example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sever, Ivan; Klaric, Eva; Tarle, Zrinka

    2016-07-01

    Dental microhardness experiments are influenced by unobserved factors related to the varying tooth characteristics that affect measurement reproducibility. This paper explores the appropriate analytical tools for modeling different sources of unobserved variability to reduce the biases encountered and increase the validity of microhardness studies. The enamel microhardness of human third molars was measured by Vickers diamond. The effects of five bleaching agents-10, 16, and 30 % carbamide peroxide, and 25 and 38 % hydrogen peroxide-were examined, as well as the effect of artificial saliva and amorphous calcium phosphate. To account for both between- and within-tooth heterogeneity in evaluating treatment effects, the statistical analysis was performed in the mixed-effects framework, which also included the appropriate weighting procedure to adjust for confounding. The results were compared to those of the standard ANOVA model usually applied. The weighted mixed-effects model produced the parameter estimates of different magnitude and significance than the standard ANOVA model. The results of the former model were more intuitive, with more precise estimates and better fit. Confounding could seriously bias the study outcomes, highlighting the need for more robust statistical procedures in dental research that account for the measurement reliability. The presented framework is more flexible and informative than existing analytical techniques and may improve the quality of inference in dental research. Reported results could be misleading if underlying heterogeneity of microhardness measurements is not taken into account. The confidence in treatment outcomes could be increased by applying the framework presented.

  16. Evaluation in medical education: A topical review of target parameters, data collection tools and confounding factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiekirka, Sarah; Feufel, Markus A.; Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph; Raupach, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Background and objective: Evaluation is an integral part of education in German medical schools. According to the quality standards set by the German Society for Evaluation, evaluation tools must provide an accurate and fair appraisal of teaching quality. Thus, data collection tools must be highly reliable and valid. This review summarises the current literature on evaluation of medical education with regard to the possible dimensions of teaching quality, the psychometric properties of survey instruments and potential confounding factors. Methods: We searched Pubmed, PsycINFO and PSYNDEX for literature on evaluation in medical education and included studies published up until June 30, 2011 as well as articles identified in the “grey literature”. Results are presented as a narrative review. Results: We identified four dimensions of teaching quality: structure, process, teacher characteristics, and outcome. Student ratings are predominantly used to address the first three dimensions, and a number of reliable tools are available for this purpose. However, potential confounders of student ratings pose a threat to the validity of these instruments. Outcome is usually operationalised in terms of student performance on examinations, but methodological problems may limit the usability of these data for evaluation purposes. In addition, not all examinations at German medical schools meet current quality standards. Conclusion: The choice of tools for evaluating medical education should be guided by the dimension that is targeted by the evaluation. Likewise, evaluation results can only be interpreted within the context of the construct addressed by the data collection tool that was used as well as its specific confounding factors. PMID:26421003

  17. Adjusting for the Confounding Effects of Treatment Switching—The BREAK-3 Trial: Dabrafenib Versus Dacarbazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Keith R.; Amonkar, Mayur M.; Stapelkamp, Ceilidh; Swann, R. Suzanne

    2015-01-01

    Background. Patients with previously untreated BRAF V600E mutation-positive melanoma in BREAK-3 showed a median overall survival (OS) of 18.2 months for dabrafenib versus 15.6 months for dacarbazine (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.48–1.21). Because patients receiving dacarbazine were allowed to switch to dabrafenib at disease progression, we attempted to adjust for the confounding effects on OS. Materials and Methods. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTMs) and the iterative parameter estimation (IPE) algorithm were used. Two analyses, “treatment group” (assumes treatment effect could continue until death) and “on-treatment observed” (assumes treatment effect disappears with discontinuation), were used to test the assumptions around the durability of the treatment effect. Results. A total of 36 of 63 patients (57%) receiving dacarbazine switched to dabrafenib. The adjusted OS HRs ranged from 0.50 to 0.55, depending on the analysis. The RPSFTM and IPE “treatment group” and “on-treatment observed” analyses performed similarly well. Conclusion. RPSFTM and IPE analyses resulted in point estimates for the OS HR that indicate a substantial increase in the treatment effect compared with the unadjusted OS HR of 0.76. The results are uncertain because of the assumptions associated with the adjustment methods. The confidence intervals continued to cross 1.00; thus, the adjusted estimates did not provide statistically significant evidence of a treatment benefit on survival. However, it is clear that a standard intention-to-treat analysis will be confounded in the presence of treatment switching—a reliance on unadjusted analyses could lead to inappropriate practice. Adjustment analyses provide useful additional information on the estimated treatment effects to inform decision making. Implications for Practice: Treatment switching is common in oncology trials, and the implications of this for the interpretation of the

  18. Adjusting for the Confounding Effects of Treatment Switching-The BREAK-3 Trial: Dabrafenib Versus Dacarbazine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latimer, Nicholas R; Abrams, Keith R; Amonkar, Mayur M; Stapelkamp, Ceilidh; Swann, R Suzanne

    2015-07-01

    Patients with previously untreated BRAF V600E mutation-positive melanoma in BREAK-3 showed a median overall survival (OS) of 18.2 months for dabrafenib versus 15.6 months for dacarbazine (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-1.21). Because patients receiving dacarbazine were allowed to switch to dabrafenib at disease progression, we attempted to adjust for the confounding effects on OS. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTMs) and the iterative parameter estimation (IPE) algorithm were used. Two analyses, "treatment group" (assumes treatment effect could continue until death) and "on-treatment observed" (assumes treatment effect disappears with discontinuation), were used to test the assumptions around the durability of the treatment effect. A total of 36 of 63 patients (57%) receiving dacarbazine switched to dabrafenib. The adjusted OS HRs ranged from 0.50 to 0.55, depending on the analysis. The RPSFTM and IPE "treatment group" and "on-treatment observed" analyses performed similarly well. RPSFTM and IPE analyses resulted in point estimates for the OS HR that indicate a substantial increase in the treatment effect compared with the unadjusted OS HR of 0.76. The results are uncertain because of the assumptions associated with the adjustment methods. The confidence intervals continued to cross 1.00; thus, the adjusted estimates did not provide statistically significant evidence of a treatment benefit on survival. However, it is clear that a standard intention-to-treat analysis will be confounded in the presence of treatment switching-a reliance on unadjusted analyses could lead to inappropriate practice. Adjustment analyses provide useful additional information on the estimated treatment effects to inform decision making. Treatment switching is common in oncology trials, and the implications of this for the interpretation of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the novel treatment are important to consider. If

  19. Search for unobserved transitions in "1"4"2Eu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, Sajad; Rajbanshi, S.; Bisoi, Abhijit

    2016-01-01

    In order to understand the excitation mechanisms responsible for the generation of high spin states in this mass region we have studied "1"4"2Eu nucleus. The high spin states of the "1"4"2Eu was reported earlier by M. Piiparinen et al. Based on this experimental data, they have proposed a level scheme of "1"4"2Eu. The motivation of current work is to remove the remaining incompleteness of the previously reported level scheme of "1"4"2Eu

  20. Neighbourhood social and built environment factors and falls in community-dwelling canadian older adults: A validation study and exploration of structural confounding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshin Vafaei

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Older persons are vulnerable to the ill effects of their social and built environment due to age-related limitations in mobility and bio-psychological vulnerability. Falls are common in older adults and result from complex interactions between individual, social, and contextual determinants. We addressed two methodological issues of neighbourhood-health and social epidemiological studies in this analysis: (1 validity of measures of neighbourhood contexts, and (2 structural confounding resulting from social sorting mechanisms. Baseline data from International Mobility in Aging Study were used. Samples included community-dwelling Canadians older than 65 living in Kingston (Ontario and St-Hyacinthe (Quebec. We performed factor analysis and ecometric analysis to assess the validity of measures of neighbourhood social capital, socioeconomic status, and the built environment and stratified tabular analyses to explore structural confounding. The scales all demonstrated good psychometric and ecometric properties. There was an evidence of the existence of structural confounding in this sample of Canadian older adults as some combinations of strata for the three neighbourhood measures had no population. This limits causal inference in studying relationships between neighbourhood factors and falls and should be taken into account in aetiological aging research. Keywords: Ecometric analysis, Falls, Social and built environment, Neighbourhoods, Older adults, Social Capital, Structural confounding, Validity

  1. Time-Dependent Confounding in the Study of the Effects of Regular Physical Activity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Application of the Marginal Structural Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J.; Lange, P.; Serra, I.

    2008-01-01

    this type of confounding. We sought to assess the presence of time-dependent confounding in the association between physical activity and COPD development and course by comparing risk estimates between standard statistical methods and MSMs. METHODS: By using the population-based cohort Copenhagen City Heart...

  2. Modelling Cardiac Signal as a Confound in EEG-fMRI and its Application in Focal Epilepsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liston, Adam David; Salek-Haddadi, Afraim; Hamandi, Khalid

    2005-01-01

    Cardiac noise has been shown to reduce the sensitivity of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to an experimental effect due to its confounding presence in the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal. Its effect is most severe in particular regions of the brain and a method is yet...

  3. Negative confounding by essential fatty acids in methylmercury neurotoxicity associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Anna L; Mogensen, Ulla Brasch; Bjerve, Kristian S

    2014-01-01

    acid concentrations in the analysis (-22.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]=-39.4, -4.62). In structural equation models, poorer memory function (corresponding to a lower score in the learning trials and short delay recall in CVLT) was associated with a doubling of prenatal exposure to methylmercury after...... concentrations of fatty acids were determined in cord serum phospholipids. Neuropsychological performance in verbal, motor, attention, spatial, and memory functions was assessed at 7 years of age. Multiple regression and structural equation models (SEMs) were carried out to determine the confounder......-adjusted associations with methylmercury exposure. RESULTS: A short delay recall (in percent change) in the California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) was associated with a doubling of cord blood methylmercury (-18.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]=-36.3, -1.51). The association became stronger after the inclusion of fatty...

  4. Adolescents' physical activity is associated with previous and current physical activity practice by their parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro; Andersen, Lars Bo; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; Barros, Mauro Virgílio Gomes de; Saraiva, Bruna Thamyres Ciccotti; Fernandes, Rômulo Araújo; Ritti-Dias, Raphael Mendes

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether parents' current and previous physical activity practice is associated with adolescents' physical activity. The sample was composed of 1231 adolescents (14-17 years), and 1202 mothers and 871 fathers were interviewed. Weight and height of the adolescents were measured. Self-reported parents' weight and height were obtained. The current and previous physical activity levels (Baecke's questionnaire) of parents (during childhood and adolescence) and adolescents' physical activity levels were obtained using a questionnaire. The magnitude of the associations between parent and adolescent physical activity levels was determined by binary logistic regression (adjusted by sex, age, and socioeconomic level of adolescents and education level of parents). The current physical activity practice by parents was associated with adolescents' physical activity (p<0.001). The physical activities reported by parents in their childhood and adolescence were also associated with higher physical activity levels among adolescents. Adolescents whose parents were both physically active in the past and present were six times (OR=6.67 [CI=1.94-22.79]) more likely to be physically active compared to adolescents with no parents who were physically active in the past. The current and previous physical activities of parents were associated with higher levels of physical activity in adolescents, even after controlling for confounding factors. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  5. Adolescents' physical activity is associated with previous and current physical activity practice by their parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Giulliano Destro Christofaro

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether parents' current and previous physical activity practice is associated with adolescents' physical activity. Methods: The sample was composed of 1231 adolescents (14-17 years, and 1202 mothers and 871 fathers were interviewed. Weight and height of the adolescents were measured. Self-reported parents' weight and height were obtained. The current and previous physical activity levels (Baecke's questionnaire of parents (during childhood and adolescence and adolescents' physical activity levels were obtained using a questionnaire. The magnitude of the associations between parent and adolescent physical activity levels was determined by binary logistic regression (adjusted by sex, age, and socioeconomic level of adolescents and education level of parents. Results: The current physical activity practice by parents was associated with adolescents' physical activity (p < 0.001. The physical activities reported by parents in their childhood and adolescence were also associated with higher physical activity levels among adolescents. Adolescents whose parents were both physically active in the past and present were six times (OR = 6.67 [CI = 1.94-22.79] more likely to be physically active compared to adolescents with no parents who were physically active in the past. Conclusions: The current and previous physical activities of parents were associated with higher levels of physical activity in adolescents, even after controlling for confounding factors.

  6. Polychlorinated biphenyl exposure, diabetes and endogenous hormones: a cross-sectional study in men previously employed at a capacitor manufacturing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persky, Victoria; Piorkowski, Julie; Turyk, Mary; Freels, Sally; Chatterton, Robert; Dimos, John; Bradlow, H Leon; Chary, Lin Kaatz; Burse, Virlyn; Unterman, Terry; Sepkovic, Daniel W; McCann, Kenneth

    2012-08-29

    Studies have shown associations of diabetes and endogenous hormones with exposure to a wide variety of organochlorines. We have previously reported positive associations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and inverse associations of selected steroid hormones with diabetes in postmenopausal women previously employed in a capacitor manufacturing plant. This paper examines associations of PCBs with diabetes and endogenous hormones in 63 men previously employed at the same plant who in 1996 underwent surveys of their exposure and medical history and collection of bloods and urine for measurements of PCBs, lipids, liver function, hematologic markers and endogenous hormones. PCB exposure was positively associated with diabetes and age and inversely associated with thyroid stimulating hormone and triiodothyronine-uptake. History of diabetes was significantly related to total PCBs and all PCB functional groupings, but not to quarters worked and job score, after control for potential confounders. None of the exposures were related to insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in non-diabetic men. Associations of PCBs with specific endogenous hormones differ in some respects from previous findings in postmenopausal women employed at the capacitor plant. Results from this study, however, do confirm previous reports relating PCB exposure to diabetes and suggest that these associations are not mediated by measured endogenous hormones.

  7. Accounting for context in studies of health inequalities: a review and comparison of analytic approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schempf, Ashley H; Kaufman, Jay S

    2012-10-01

    A common epidemiologic objective is to evaluate the contribution of residential context to individual-level disparities by race or socioeconomic position. We reviewed analytic strategies to account for the total (observed and unobserved factors) contribution of environmental context to health inequalities, including conventional fixed effects (FE) and hybrid FE implemented within a random effects (RE) or a marginal model. To illustrate results and limitations of the various analytic approaches of accounting for the total contextual component of health disparities, we used data on births nested within neighborhoods as an applied example of evaluating neighborhood confounding of racial disparities in gestational age at birth, including both a continuous and a binary outcome. Ordinary and RE models provided disparity estimates that can be substantially biased in the presence of neighborhood confounding. Both FE and hybrid FE models can account for cluster level confounding and provide disparity estimates unconfounded by neighborhood, with the latter having greater flexibility in allowing estimation of neighborhood-level effects and intercept/slope variability when implemented in a RE specification. Given the range of models that can be implemented in a hybrid approach and the frequent goal of accounting for contextual confounding, this approach should be used more often. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Quantification of the impact of a confounding variable on functional connectivity confirms anti-correlated networks in the resting-state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbonell, F; Bellec, P; Shmuel, A

    2014-02-01

    The effect of regressing out the global average signal (GAS) in resting state fMRI data has become a concern for interpreting functional connectivity analyses. It is not clear whether the reported anti-correlations between the Default Mode and the Dorsal Attention Networks are intrinsic to the brain, or are artificially created by regressing out the GAS. Here we introduce a concept, Impact of the Global Average on Functional Connectivity (IGAFC), for quantifying the sensitivity of seed-based correlation analyses to the regression of the GAS. This voxel-wise IGAFC index is defined as the product of two correlation coefficients: the correlation between the GAS and the fMRI time course of a voxel, times the correlation between the GAS and the seed time course. This definition enables the calculation of a threshold at which the impact of regressing-out the GAS would be large enough to introduce spurious negative correlations. It also yields a post-hoc impact correction procedure via thresholding, which eliminates spurious correlations introduced by regressing out the GAS. In addition, we introduce an Artificial Negative Correlation Index (ANCI), defined as the absolute difference between the IGAFC index and the impact threshold. The ANCI allows a graded confidence scale for ranking voxels according to their likelihood of showing artificial correlations. By applying this method, we observed regions in the Default Mode and Dorsal Attention Networks that were anti-correlated. These findings confirm that the previously reported negative correlations between the Dorsal Attention and Default Mode Networks are intrinsic to the brain and not the result of statistical manipulations. Our proposed quantification of the impact that a confound may have on functional connectivity can be generalized to global effect estimators other than the GAS. It can be readily applied to other confounds, such as systemic physiological or head movement interferences, in order to quantify their

  9. Smoking and early retirement due to chronic disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtsson, Tommy; Nilsson, Anton

    2018-05-01

    This paper considers the long-term effects of smoking on disability retirement in Sweden. Smoking is known to have damaging effects on health, but there is limited evidence on how the effects of smoking translate into worse labour market outcomes, such as the inability to work. In contrast to the few previous studies on smoking and disability retirement, we use a large population sample with registry information on smoking, which is recorded for all women who give birth in Sweden. Thanks to these comprehensive data, we are able to account for a much broader range of potential confounders. In particular, by the use of sibling and twin fixed effects, we account for unobserved heterogeneity in childhood environment and family characteristics. Given that smoking is often initiated in adolescence, one would suspect such factors to play important roles. Among individuals aged 50-64 in 2011, a simple model suggested smokers to have a 5 percentage point higher probability of receiving (full) disability pension, making them more than twice as likely as non-smokers to receive this. However, in a model with sibling fixed effects, the size of the effect was reduced by more than a third. The results point to the importance of confounders, such as childhood circumstances or behaviours, which were not accounted for by previous studies. We also consider effects on disability due to different health conditions. In relative terms, effects are the largest for circulatory conditions and tumours. Results are largely driven by health problems severe enough to merit hospitalization, and there is no evidence of a role played by financial incentives. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Marked EEG worsening following Levetiracetam overdose: How a pharmacological issue can confound coma prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchier, Baptiste; Demarquay, Geneviève; Guérin, Claude; André-Obadia, Nathalie; Gobert, Florent

    2017-01-01

    Levetiracetam is an anti-epileptic drug commonly used in intensive care when seizure is suspected as a possible cause of coma. We propose to question the cofounding effect of Levetiracetam during the prognostication process in a case of anoxic coma. We report the story of a young woman presenting a comatose state following a hypoxic cardiac arrest. After a first EEG presenting an intermediate EEG pattern, a seizure suspicion led to prescribe Levetiracetam. The EEG showed then the appearance of burst suppression, which was compatible with a very severe pattern of post-anoxic coma. This aggravation was in fact related to an overdose of Levetiracetam (the only medication introduced recently) and was reversible after Levetiracetam cessation. The increased plasmatic dosages of Levetiracetam confirming this overdose could have been favoured by a moderate reduction of renal clearance, previously underestimated because of a low body-weight. This EEG dynamic was unexpected under Levetiracetam and could sign a functional instability after anoxia. Burst suppression is classically observed with high doses of anaesthetics, but is not expected after a minor anti-epileptic drug. This report proposes that Levetiracetam tolerance might not be straightforward after brain lesions and engages us to avoid confounding factors during the awakening prognostication, which is mainly based on the severity of the EEG. Hence, prognosis should not be decided on an isolated parameter, especially if the dynamic is atypical after a new prescription, even for well-known drugs. For any suspicion, the drug's dosage and replacement should be managed before any premature care's withdrawal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Determining Confounding Sensitivities In Eddy Current Thin Film Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gros, Ethan; Udpa, Lalita; Smith, James A.; Wachs, Katelyn

    2016-07-01

    Determining Confounding Sensitivities In Eddy Current Thin Film Measurements Ethan Gros, Lalita Udpa, Electrical Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing MI 48824 James A. Smith, Experiment Analysis, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls ID 83415 Eddy current (EC) techniques are widely used in industry to measure the thickness of non-conductive films on a metal substrate. This is done using a system whereby a coil carrying a high-frequency alternating current is used to create an alternating magnetic field at the surface of the instrument's probe. When the probe is brought near a conductive surface, the alternating magnetic field will induce ECs in the conductor. The substrate characteristics and the distance of the probe from the substrate (the coating thickness) affect the magnitude of the ECs. The induced currents load the probe coil affecting the terminal impedance of the coil. The measured probe impedance is related to the lift off between coil and conductor as well as conductivity of the test sample. For a known conductivity sample, the probe impedance can be converted into an equivalent film thickness value. The EC measurement can be confounded by a number of measurement parameters. It is the goal of this research to determine which physical properties of the measurement set-up and sample can adversely affect the thickness measurement. The eddy current testing is performed using a commercially available, hand held eddy current probe (ETA3.3H spring loaded eddy probe running at 8 MHz) that comes with a stand to hold the probe. The stand holds the probe and adjusts the probe on the z-axis to help position the probe in the correct area as well as make precise measurements. The signal from the probe is sent to a hand held readout, where the results are recorded directly in terms of liftoff or film thickness. Understanding the effect of certain factors on the measurements of film thickness, will help to evaluate how accurate the ETA3.3H spring

  12. Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2016-01-01

    Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

  13. Bayesian inference in a discrete shock model using confounded common cause data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvam, Paul H.; Martz, Harry F.

    1995-01-01

    We consider redundant systems of identical components for which reliability is assessed statistically using only demand-based failures and successes. Direct assessment of system reliability can lead to gross errors in estimation if there exist external events in the working environment that cause two or more components in the system to fail in the same demand period which have not been included in the reliability model. We develop a simple Bayesian model for estimating component reliability and the corresponding probability of common cause failure in operating systems for which the data is confounded; that is, the common cause failures cannot be distinguished from multiple independent component failures in the narrative event descriptions

  14. Reconstructing a B-cell clonal lineage. I. Statistical inference of unobserved ancestors [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/z6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas B Kepler

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the key phenomena in the adaptive immune response to infection and immunization is affinity maturation, during which antibody genes are mutated and selected, typically resulting in a substantial increase in binding affinity to the eliciting antigen. Advances in technology on several fronts have made it possible to clone large numbers of heavy-chain light-chain pairs from individual B cells and thereby identify whole sets of clonally related antibodies. These collections could provide the information necessary to reconstruct their own history - the sequence of changes introduced into the lineage during the development of the clone - and to study affinity maturation in detail. But the success of such a program depends entirely on accurately inferring the founding ancestor and the other unobserved intermediates. Given a set of clonally related immunoglobulin V-region genes, the method described here allows one to compute the posterior distribution over their possible ancestors, thereby giving a thorough accounting of the uncertainty inherent in the reconstruction. I demonstrate the application of this method on heavy-chain and light-chain clones, assess the reliability of the inference, and discuss the sources of uncertainty.

  15. Analysis of Longitudinal Studies With Repeated Outcome Measures: Adjusting for Time-Dependent Confounding Using Conventional Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; Daniel, Rhian M; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2018-05-01

    Estimation of causal effects of time-varying exposures using longitudinal data is a common problem in epidemiology. When there are time-varying confounders, which may include past outcomes, affected by prior exposure, standard regression methods can lead to bias. Methods such as inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models have been developed to address this problem. However, in this paper we show how standard regression methods can be used, even in the presence of time-dependent confounding, to estimate the total effect of an exposure on a subsequent outcome by controlling appropriately for prior exposures, outcomes, and time-varying covariates. We refer to the resulting estimation approach as sequential conditional mean models (SCMMs), which can be fitted using generalized estimating equations. We outline this approach and describe how including propensity score adjustment is advantageous. We compare the causal effects being estimated using SCMMs and marginal structural models, and we compare the two approaches using simulations. SCMMs enable more precise inferences, with greater robustness against model misspecification via propensity score adjustment, and easily accommodate continuous exposures and interactions. A new test for direct effects of past exposures on a subsequent outcome is described.

  16. Time-Dependent Confounding in the Study of the Effects of Regular Physical Activity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Application of the Marginal Structural Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Lange, Peter; Serra, Ignasi

    2008-01-01

    PURPOSE: Results from longitudinal studies about the association between physical activity and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may have been biased because they did not properly adjust for time-dependent confounders. Marginal structural models (MSMs) have been proposed to address...... this type of confounding. We sought to assess the presence of time-dependent confounding in the association between physical activity and COPD development and course by comparing risk estimates between standard statistical methods and MSMs. METHODS: By using the population-based cohort Copenhagen City Heart...... Study, 6,568 subjects selected from the general population in 1976 were followed up until 2004 with three repeated examinations. RESULTS: Moderate to high compared with low physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of developing COPD both in the standard analysis (odds ratio [OR] 0.76, p = 0...

  17. Indoor biofuel air pollution and respiratory health: the role of confounding factors among women in highland Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, N; Neufeld, L; Boy, E; West, C

    1998-06-01

    A number of studies have reported associations between indoor biofuel air pollution in developing countries and chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) in adults and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in children. Most of these studies have used indirect measures of exposure and generally dealt inadequately with confounding. More reliable, quantified information about this presumed effect is an important pre-requisite for prevention, not least because of the technical, economic and cultural barriers to achieving substantial exposure reductions in the world's poorest households, where ambient pollution levels are typically between ten and a hundred times higher than recommended standards. This study was carried out as part of a programme of research designed to inform the development of intervention studies capable of providing quantified estimates of health benefits. The association between respiratory symptoms and the use of open fires and chimney woodstoves ('planchas'), and the distribution of confounding factors, were examined in a cross-sectional study of 340 women aged 15-45 years, living in a poor rural area in the western highlands of Guatemala. The prevalence of reported cough and phlegm was significantly higher for three of six symptom measures among women using open fires. Although this finding is consistent with a number of other studies, none has systematically examined the extent to which strong associations with confounding variables in these settings limit the ability of observational studies to define the effect of indoor air pollution adequately. Very strong associations (P air pollution and health, although there is a reasonable case for believing that the observed association is causal. Intervention studies are required for stronger evidence of this association, and more importantly, to determine the size of health benefit achievable through feasible exposure reductions.

  18. On Estimation of the Survivor Average Causal Effect in Observational Studies when Important Confounders are Missing Due to Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egleston, Brian L.; Scharfstein, Daniel O.; MacKenzie, Ellen

    2008-01-01

    We focus on estimation of the causal effect of treatment on the functional status of individuals at a fixed point in time t* after they have experienced a catastrophic event, from observational data with the following features: (1) treatment is imposed shortly after the event and is non-randomized, (2) individuals who survive to t* are scheduled to be interviewed, (3) there is interview non-response, (4) individuals who die prior to t* are missing information on pre-event confounders, (5) medical records are abstracted on all individuals to obtain information on post-event, pre-treatment confounding factors. To address the issue of survivor bias, we seek to estimate the survivor average causal effect (SACE), the effect of treatment on functional status among the cohort of individuals who would survive to t* regardless of whether or not assigned to treatment. To estimate this effect from observational data, we need to impose untestable assumptions, which depend on the collection of all confounding factors. Since pre-event information is missing on those who die prior to t*, it is unlikely that these data are missing at random (MAR). We introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology to evaluate the robustness of SACE inferences to deviations from the MAR assumption. We apply our methodology to the evaluation of the effect of trauma center care on vitality outcomes using data from the National Study on Costs and Outcomes of Trauma Care. PMID:18759833

  19. Cascaded discrimination of normal, abnormal, and confounder classes in histopathology: Gleason grading of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doyle Scott

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Automated classification of histopathology involves identification of multiple classes, including benign, cancerous, and confounder categories. The confounder tissue classes can often mimic and share attributes with both the diseased and normal tissue classes, and can be particularly difficult to identify, both manually and by automated classifiers. In the case of prostate cancer, they may be several confounding tissue types present in a biopsy sample, posing as major sources of diagnostic error for pathologists. Two common multi-class approaches are one-shot classification (OSC, where all classes are identified simultaneously, and one-versus-all (OVA, where a “target” class is distinguished from all “non-target” classes. OSC is typically unable to handle discrimination of classes of varying similarity (e.g. with images of prostate atrophy and high grade cancer, while OVA forces several heterogeneous classes into a single “non-target” class. In this work, we present a cascaded (CAS approach to classifying prostate biopsy tissue samples, where images from different classes are grouped to maximize intra-group homogeneity while maximizing inter-group heterogeneity. Results We apply the CAS approach to categorize 2000 tissue samples taken from 214 patient studies into seven classes: epithelium, stroma, atrophy, prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN, and prostate cancer Gleason grades 3, 4, and 5. A series of increasingly granular binary classifiers are used to split the different tissue classes until the images have been categorized into a single unique class. Our automatically-extracted image feature set includes architectural features based on location of the nuclei within the tissue sample as well as texture features extracted on a per-pixel level. The CAS strategy yields a positive predictive value (PPV of 0.86 in classifying the 2000 tissue images into one of 7 classes, compared with the OVA (0.77 PPV and OSC

  20. A Comprehensive Analysis of the SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification and Confounding Variables: A Prospective, Non-US Cross-sectional Study in 292 Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallager, Dennis Winge; Hansen, Lars Valentin; Dragsted, Casper Rokkjær; Peytz, Nina; Gehrchen, Martin; Dahl, Benny

    2016-05-01

    Cross-sectional analyses on a consecutive, prospective cohort. To evaluate the ability of the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification to group patients by widely used health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) scores and examine possible confounding variables. The SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification includes sagittal modifiers considered important for HRQOL and the clinical impact of the classification has been validated in patients from the International Spine Study Group database; however, equivocal results were reported for the Pelvic Tilt modifier and potential confounding variables were not evaluated. Between March 2013 and May 2014, all adult spinal deformity patients from our outpatient clinic with sufficient radiographs were prospectively enrolled. Analyses of HRQOL variance and post hoc analyses were performed for each SRS-Schwab modifier. Age, history of spine surgery, and aetiology of spinal deformity were considered potential confounders and their influence on the association between SRS-Schwab modifiers and aggregated Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores was evaluated with multivariate proportional odds regressions. P values were adjusted for multiple testing. Two hundred ninety-two of 460 eligible patients were included for analyses. The SRS-Schwab Classification significantly discriminated HRQOL scores between normal and abnormal sagittal modifier classifications. Individual grade comparisons showed equivocal results; however, Pelvic Tilt grade + versus +  + did not discriminate patients according to any HRQOL score. All modifiers showed significant proportional odds for worse aggregated ODI scores with increasing grade levels and the effects were robust to confounding. However, age group and aetiology had individual significant effects. The SRS-Schwab sagittal modifiers reliably grouped patients graded 0 versus + / +  + according to the most widely used HRQOL scores and the

  1. Sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, price trends, and price endogeneity: Evidence from U.S. Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mark; Alberini, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature. In this paper, we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the U.S. – the American Housing Survey, Forms EIA-861, and the Residential Energy Consumption Survey. We examine the role of the sample period, level of aggregation, use of panel data, use of instrumental variables, and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock. Our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time. Upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections, we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price. Whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates. We also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates, depending on the dataset used, and that controlling for unit-level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions. Addressing the endogeneity of price and/or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities. Finally, controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity. - Highlights: • The price elasticity of residential electricity demand varies widely across studies. • We use three large datasets from the US to examine reasons for such wide variation. • Some assessed effects include aggregation, unobserved heterogeneity, and price trends. • Correcting for such issues can change the estimated price elasticity by 50–100%.

  2. [COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY FOR ACCOUNTING OF CONFOUNDERS IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE BASE OF THE METHOD OF STANDARDIZATION].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalaumova, Yu V; Varaksin, A N; Panov, V G

    2016-01-01

    There was performed an analysis of the accounting of the impact of concomitant variables (confounders), introducing a systematic error in the assessment of the impact of risk factors on the resulting variable. The analysis showed that standardization is an effective method for the reduction of the shift of risk assessment. In the work there is suggested an algorithm implementing the method of standardization based on stratification, providing for the minimization of the difference of distributions of confounders in groups on risk factors. To automate the standardization procedures there was developed a software available on the website of the Institute of Industrial Ecology, UB RAS. With the help of the developed software by numerically modeling there were determined conditions of the applicability of the method of standardization on the basis of stratification for the case of the normal distribution on the response and confounder and linear relationship between them. Comparison ofresults obtained with the help of the standardization with statistical methods (logistic regression and analysis of covariance) in solving the problem of human ecology, has shown that obtaining close results is possible if there will be met exactly conditions for the applicability of statistical methods. Standardization is less sensitive to violations of conditions of applicability.

  3. Salivary alpha-amylase: More than an enzyme Investigating confounders of stress-induced and basal amylase activity

    OpenAIRE

    Strahler, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Summary: Salivary alpha-amylase: More than an enzyme - Investigating confounders of stress-induced and basal amylase activity (Dipl.-Psych. Jana Strahler) The hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and the autonomic nervous system (ANS) are two of the major systems playing a role in the adaptation of organisms to developmental changes that threaten homeostasis. The HPA system involves the secretion of glucocorticoids, including cortisol, into the circulatory system. Numerous studies hav...

  4. High blood pressure and sedentary behavior in adolescents are associated even after controlling for confounding factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro; De Andrade, Selma Maffei; Cardoso, Jefferson Rosa; Mesas, Arthur Eumann; Codogno, Jamile Sanches; Fernandes, Rômulo Araújo

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether high blood pressure (HBP) is associated with sedentary behavior in young people even after controlling for potential confounders (gender, age, socioeconomic level, tobacco, alcohol, obesity and physical activity). In this epidemiological study, 1231 adolescents were evaluated. Blood pressure was measured with an oscillometric device and waist circumference with an inextensible tape. Sedentary behavior (watching television, computer use and playing video games) and physical activity were assessed by a questionnaire. We used mean and standard deviation to describe the statistical analysis, and the association between HBP and sedentary behavior was assessed by the chi-squared test. Binary logistic regression was used to observe the magnitude of association and cluster analyses (sedentary behavior and abdominal obesity; sedentary behavior and physical inactivity). HBP was associated with sedentary behaviors [odds ratio (OR) = 2.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-3.96], even after controlling for various confounders (OR = 1.68, CI = 1.03-2.75). In cluster analysis the combination of sedentary behavior and elevated abdominal obesity contributed significantly to an increased likelihood of having HBP (OR = 13.51, CI 7.21-23.97). Sedentary behavior was associated with HBP, and excess fat in the abdominal region contributed to the modulation of this association.

  5. Fresh fruit intake and asthma symptoms in young British adults: confounding or effect modification by smoking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butland, B K; Strachan, D P; Anderson, H R

    1999-04-01

    Antioxidant vitamins have been postulated as a protective factor in asthma. The associations between the frequency of fresh fruit consumption in summer, and the prevalence of self-reported asthma symptoms were investigated. The analysis was based on 5,582 males and 5,770 females, born in England, Wales and Scotland between March 3-9, 1958 and aged 33 yrs at the time of survey. The 12-month period prevalence of wheeze and frequent wheeze were inversely associated with frequent intakes of fresh fruit and salad/raw vegetables and positively associated with smoking and lower social class. After adjustment for mutual confounding and sex, associations with smoking persisted, but those with social class and salad/raw vegetable consumption lost significance. The frequency of fresh fruit intake was no longer associated with wheeze after adjustment, but was inversely associated with frequent wheeze and speech-limiting attacks. The association with frequent wheeze differed significantly between smoking groups (never, former, current) and appeared to be confined to exsmokers and current smokers. These findings support postulated associations between infrequent fresh fruit consumption and the prevalence of frequent or severe asthma symptoms in adults. Associations appeared to be restricted to smokers, with effect modification as a more likely explanation of this pattern than residual confounding by smoking.

  6. Interpretational Confounding Is Due to Misspecification, Not to Type of Indicator: Comment on Howell, Breivik, and Wilcox (2007)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A.

    2007-01-01

    R. D. Howell, E. Breivik, and J. B. Wilcox (2007) have argued that causal (formative) indicators are inherently subject to interpretational confounding. That is, they have argued that using causal (formative) indicators leads the empirical meaning of a latent variable to be other than that assigned to it by a researcher. Their critique of causal…

  7. The comet assay as a rapid test in biomonitoring occupational exposure to DNA-damaging agents and effect of confounding factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, P; Knudsen, Lisbeth E.; Loft, S

    2000-01-01

    appeared to have less power than the positive studies. Also, there were poor dose-response relationships in many of the biomonitoring studies. Many factors have been reported to produce effects by the comet assay, e.g., age, air pollution exposure, diet, exercise, gender, infection, residential radon...... be used as criteria for the selection of populations and that data on exercise, diet, and recent infections be registered before blood sampling. Samples from exposed and unexposed populations should be collected at the same time to avoid seasonal variation. In general, the comet assay is considered...... exposure, smoking, and season. Until now, the use of the comet assay has been hampered by the uncertainty of the influence of confounding factors. We argue that none of the confounding factors are unequivocally positive in the majority of the studies. We recommend that age, gender, and smoking status...

  8. Birth order has no effect on intelligence: a reply and extension of previous findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichman, Aaron L; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Maccallum, Robert C

    2007-09-01

    We address points raised by Zajonc and Sulloway, who reject findings showing that birth order has no effect on intelligence. Many objections to findings of null birth-order results seem to stem from a misunderstanding of the difference between study designs where birth order is confounded with true causal influences on intelligence across families and designs that control for some of these influences. We discuss some of the consequences of not appreciating the nature of this difference. When between-family confounds are controlled using appropriate study designs and techniques such as multilevel modeling, birth order is shown not to influence intelligence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the replicability and generalizability of this approach.

  9. Reducing confounding and suppression effects in TCGA data: an integrated analysis of chemotherapy response in ovarian cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsu Fang-Han

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite initial response in adjuvant chemotherapy, ovarian cancer patients treated with the combination of paclitaxel and carboplatin frequently suffer from recurrence after few cycles of treatment, and the underlying mechanisms causing the chemoresistance remain unclear. Recently, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA research network concluded an ovarian cancer study and released the dataset to the public. The TCGA dataset possesses large sample size, comprehensive molecular profiles, and clinical outcome information; however, because of the unknown molecular subtypes in ovarian cancer and the great diversity of adjuvant treatments TCGA patients went through, studying chemotherapeutic response using the TCGA data is difficult. Additionally, factors such as sample batches, patient ages, and tumor stages further confound or suppress the identification of relevant genes, and thus the biological functions and disease mechanisms. Results To address these issues, herein we propose an analysis procedure designed to reduce suppression effect by focusing on a specific chemotherapeutic treatment, and to remove confounding effects such as batch effect, patient's age, and tumor stages. The proposed procedure starts with a batch effect adjustment, followed by a rigorous sample selection process. Then, the gene expression, copy number, and methylation profiles from the TCGA ovarian cancer dataset are analyzed using a semi-supervised clustering method combined with a novel scoring function. As a result, two molecular classifications, one with poor copy number profiles and one with poor methylation profiles, enriched with unfavorable scores are identified. Compared with the samples enriched with favorable scores, these two classifications exhibit poor progression-free survival (PFS and might be associated with poor chemotherapy response specifically to the combination of paclitaxel and carboplatin. Significant genes and biological processes are

  10. Control selection and confounding factors: A lesson from a Japanese case-control study to examine acellular pertussis vaccine effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuji, Satoko; Okada, Kenji; Nakano, Takashi; Ito, Hiroaki; Hara, Megumi; Kuroki, Haruo; Hirota, Yoshio

    2017-08-24

    When using a case-control study design to examine vaccine effectiveness, both the selection of control subjects and the consideration of potential confounders must be the important issues to ensure accurate results. In this report, we described our experience from a case-control study conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of acellular pertussis vaccine combined with diphtheria-tetanus toxoids (DTaP vaccine). Newly diagnosed pertussis cases and age- and sex-matched friend-controls were enrolled, and the history of DTaP vaccination was compared between groups. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of vaccination for development of pertussis. After adjustment for potential confounders, four doses of DTaP vaccination showed a lower OR for pediatrician-diagnosed pertussis (OR=0.11, 95% CI, 0.01-0.99). In addition, the decreasing OR of four doses vaccination was more pronounced for laboratory-confirmed pertussis (OR=0.07, 95%CI, 0.01-0.82). Besides, positive association with pertussis was observed in subjects with a history of steroid treatment (OR=5.67) and those with a recent contact with a lasting cough (OR=4.12). When using a case-control study to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines, particularly those for uncommon infectious diseases such as pertussis, the use of friend-controls may be optimal due to the fact that they shared a similar experience for exposure to the pathogen as the cases. In addition, to assess vaccine effectiveness as accurately as possible, the effects of confounding should be adequately controlled with a matching or analysis technique. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. The impact of childhood neighborhood disadvantage on adult joblessness and income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, Steven Elías

    2018-02-01

    Research on residential inequality focuses heavily on adult economic outcomes as crucial components of the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Yet, empirical evidence on whether youth neighborhoods have a lasting impact on adult economic outcomes at the national level is scarce. Further, we know little about how youth neighborhood effects on adult economic outcomes manifest. This study uses 26 years (14 waves) of restricted panel data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY Children and Young Adults cohorts - data that have never been used to analyze long-term neighborhood effects - to examine whether youth neighborhood disadvantage impacts adult economic outcomes through sensitive years in childhood, teen socialization, duration effects, or cumulative effects. Sibling fixed effects models that net out unobserved effects of shared family characteristics suggest that youth neighborhood disadvantage increases joblessness and reduces income in adulthood. However, exposure across specific developmental stages of youth does not appear to act as a significant moderator while sustained exposure yields pernicious effects on adult economic outcomes. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative variable specifications and cousin fixed effects that net out potentially unobserved confounders, such as the inheritance of neighborhood disadvantage across three generations. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Social class, employment status and inequality in psychological well-being in the UK: Cross-sectional and fixed effects analyses over two decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Lindsay; Paskov, Marii

    2016-10-01

    A body of academic research has shown a social class gradient in psychological well-being. Some recent work has also suggested that the gradient is worsening over time, though the evidence is mixed. We focus on two straightforward research questions: Is there a class gradient in mental health? Has this gradient changed over time? We answer these questions with attention to two specific causal pathways: employment status and unobserved heterogeneity. We use two data sources: repeated cross-sections from the Health Survey of England (HSE) and longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). The combination of pooled OLS regression (with HSE) and fixed effects analysis (with BHPS) allows for a robust analysis of the relationship between class and psychological well-being. We argue that employment status is a confounder in the analysis of class inequalities and show that, along with unobserved heterogeneity, these two pathways go a long way to explain the class gradient. The effects of employment status are substantive and, unlike social class, cannot be explained away by unobserved heterogeneity. We conclude that employment status deserves greater prominence in the debate as both a pathway by which the class gradient transpires, and as another 'dimension' of inequality in its own right. Our overtime analysis suggests that skilled and unskilled manual workers had higher psychological well-being in the 1990s but by 2008 were closer to the average. Class inequalities do not appear to be widening. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Variation in faecal water content may confound estimates of gastro-intestinal parasite intensity in wild African herbivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, W C; Cizauskas, C A; Getz, W M

    2010-03-01

    Estimates of parasite intensity within host populations are essential for many studies of host-parasite relationships. Here we evaluated the seasonal, age- and sex-related variability in faecal water content for two wild ungulate species, springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) and plains zebra (Equus quagga). We then assessed whether or not faecal water content biased conclusions regarding differences in strongyle infection rates by season, age or sex. There was evidence of significant variation in faecal water content by season and age for both species, and by sex in springbok. Analyses of faecal egg counts demonstrated that sex was a near-significant factor in explaining variation in strongyle parasite infection rates in zebra (P = 0.055) and springbok (P = 0.052) using wet-weight faecal samples. However, once these intensity estimates were re-scaled by the percent of dry matter in the faeces, sex was no longer a significant factor (zebra, P = 0.268; springbok, P = 0.234). These results demonstrate that variation in faecal water content may confound analyses and could produce spurious conclusions, as was the case with host sex as a factor in the analysis. We thus recommend that researchers assess whether water variation could be a confounding factor when designing and performing research using faecal indices of parasite intensity.

  14. Intratumoral heterogeneity as a confounding factor in clonogenic assays for tumour radioresponsiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Britten, R.A.; Evans, A.J.; Allalunis-Turner, M.J.; Franko, A.J.; Pearcey, R.G.

    1996-01-01

    The level of intra-tumoral heterogeneity of cellular radiosensitivity within primary cultures of three carcinomas of the cervix has been established. All three cultures contained clones that varied by as much as 3-fold in their clinically relevant radiosensitivity (SF 2 ). The level of intra-tumoral heterogeneity observed in these cervical tumour cultures was sufficient to be a major confounding factor to the use of pre-treatment assessments of radiosensitivity to predict for clinical radioresponsiveness. Mathematical modeling of the relative elimination of the tumour clones during fractionated radiotherapy indicates that, in two of the three biopsy samples, the use of pre-treatment derived SF 2 values from the heterogeneous tumour sample would significantly overestimate radioresponsiveness. We conclude that assays of cellular radiosensitivity that identify the radiosensitivity of the most radioresistant clones and measure their relative abundance could potentially increase the effectiveness of SF 2 values as a predictive marker of radioresponsiveness

  15. Estimating the monetary value of willingness to pay for E-book reader's attributes using partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Chin-Khian

    2013-09-01

    A partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiments design was used to examine the monetary value of the willingness to pay for E-book Reader's attributes. Conjoint analysis is an efficient, cost-effective, and most widely used quantitative method in marketing research to understand consumer preferences and value trade-off. Value can be interpreted by customer or consumer as the received of multiple benefits from a price that was paid. The monetary value of willingness to pay for battery life, internal memory, external memory, screen size, text to Speech, touch screen, and converting handwriting to digital text of E-book reader were estimated in this study. Due to the significant interaction effect of the attributes with the price, the monetary values for the seven attributes were found to be different at different values of odds of purchasing versus not purchasing. The significant interactions effects were one of the main contribution of the partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiment.

  16. PERMANOVA-S: association test for microbial community composition that accommodates confounders and multiple distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zheng-Zheng; Chen, Guanhua; Alekseyenko, Alexander V

    2016-09-01

    Recent advances in sequencing technology have made it possible to obtain high-throughput data on the composition of microbial communities and to study the effects of dysbiosis on the human host. Analysis of pairwise intersample distances quantifies the association between the microbiome diversity and covariates of interest (e.g. environmental factors, clinical outcomes, treatment groups). In the design of these analyses, multiple choices for distance metrics are available. Most distance-based methods, however, use a single distance and are underpowered if the distance is poorly chosen. In addition, distance-based tests cannot flexibly handle confounding variables, which can result in excessive false-positive findings. We derive presence-weighted UniFrac to complement the existing UniFrac distances for more powerful detection of the variation in species richness. We develop PERMANOVA-S, a new distance-based method that tests the association of microbiome composition with any covariates of interest. PERMANOVA-S improves the commonly-used Permutation Multivariate Analysis of Variance (PERMANOVA) test by allowing flexible confounder adjustments and ensembling multiple distances. We conducted extensive simulation studies to evaluate the performance of different distances under various patterns of association. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the power of the test relies on how well the selected distance captures the nature of the association. The PERMANOVA-S unified test combines multiple distances and achieves good power regardless of the patterns of the underlying association. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by reanalyzing several real microbiome datasets. miProfile software is freely available at https://medschool.vanderbilt.edu/tang-lab/software/miProfile z.tang@vanderbilt.edu or g.chen@vanderbilt.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  17. International, intersectoral, or unobservable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Naveed, Amjad; Ahmad, Nisar

    2016-01-01

    for these methodical advances when estimating sectoral knowledge production functions for OECD countries under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. By doing so, we are able to uncover technology- and trade-related R&D spillover channels associated with social returns to R&D, while effectively controlling......In the theoretical and empirical growth literature, private and social returns to R&D have been identified as the key drivers of productivity gains and economic development. However, recently the debate on the relative importance of private vis-à-vis social returns has been reinforced...... for other types of productivity spillovers and latent macroeconomic shocks. Our results highlight the role played by international-intersectoral R&D spillovers for the social rate of return to R&D, while we get limited evidence for private returns to R&D once cross-sectional dependence is properly accounted...

  18. Parasitism can be a confounding factor in assessing the response of zebra mussels to water contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minguez, Laëtitia; Buronfosse, Thierry; Beisel, Jean-Nicolas; Giambérini, Laure

    2012-01-01

    Biological responses measured in aquatic organisms to monitor environmental pollution could be also affected by different biotic and abiotic factors. Among these environmental factors, parasitism has often been neglected even if infection by parasites is very frequent. In the present field investigation, the parasite infra-communities and zebra mussel biological responses were studied up- and downstream a waste water treatment plant in northeast France. In both sites, mussels were infected by ciliates and/or intracellular bacteria, but prevalence rates and infection intensities were different according to the habitat. Concerning the biological responses differences were observed related to the site quality and the infection status. Parasitism affects both systems but seemed to depend mainly on environmental conditions. The influence of parasites is not constant, but remains important to consider it as a potential confounding factor in ecotoxicological studies. This study also emphasizes the interesting use of integrative indexes to synthesize data set. Highlights: ► Study of potential bias associated with the use of infected zebra mussels in ecotoxicological studies. ► Presence of infected mussels on banks and channels, up- and downstream a waste water treatment plant. ► Parasitism influence on biological responses dependent of mussel population history. ► Integrative index, an interesting tool to synthesize the set of biological data. - Parasitism influence on the host physiology would be strongly dependent on environmental conditions but remains a potential confounding factor in ecotoxicological studies.

  19. Marital well-being and depression in Chinese marriage: Going beyond satisfaction and ruling out critical confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hongjian; Zhou, Nan; Fang, Xiaoyi; Fine, Mark

    2017-09-01

    Based on data obtained from 203 Chinese couples during the early years of marriage and utilizing the actor-partner interdependence model, this study examined the prospective associations between different aspects of marital well-being (i.e., marital satisfaction, instability, commitment, and closeness) and depressive symptoms (assessed 2 years later) while controlling for critical intrapersonal (i.e., neuroticism and self-esteem) and contextual (i.e., stressful life events) confounders. Results indicated that (a) when considering different aspects of marital well-being as predictors of depressive symptoms separately, each aspect was significantly associated with spouses' own subsequent depressive symptoms; (b) when examining various aspects of marital well-being simultaneously, only husbands' commitment, husbands' instability, and wives' instability were significantly associated with their own subsequent depressive symptoms above and beyond the other aspects; and (c) the associations between husbands' commitment, husbands' instability, and wives' instability and their own subsequent depressive symptoms remained significant even after controlling for potential major intrapersonal and contextual confounders. Such findings (a) provide evidence that the marital discord model of depression may apply to Chinese couples, (b) highlight the importance of going beyond marital (dis)satisfaction when examining the association between marital well-being and depression, and (c) demonstrate that marital well-being can account for unique variance in depressive symptoms above and beyond an array of intrapersonal and contextual risk factors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Cross-sectional analysis of food choice frequency, sleep confounding beverages, and psychological distress predictors of sleep quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowlden, Adam P; Burns, Maranda; Harcrow, Andy; Shewmake, Meghan E

    2016-03-16

    Poor sleep quality is a significant public health problem. The role of nutrition in predicting sleep quality is a relatively unexplored area of inquiry. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the capacity of 10 food choice categories, sleep confounding beverages, and psychological distress to predict the sleep quality of college students. A logistic regression model comprising 10 food choice variables (healthy proteins, unhealthy proteins, healthy dairy, unhealthy dairy, healthy grains, unhealthy grains, healthy fruits and vegetables, unhealthy empty calories, healthy beverages, unhealthy beverages), sleep confounding beverages (caffeinated/alcoholic beverages), as well as psychological distress (low, moderate, serious distress) was computed to determine the capacity of the variables to predict sleep quality (good/poor). The odds of poor sleep quality were 32.4% lower for each unit of increased frequency of healthy proteins consumed (pempty calorie food choices consumed (p=0.003; OR=1.131), and 107.3% higher for those classified in the moderate psychological distress (p=0.016; OR=2.073). Collectively, healthy proteins, healthy dairy, unhealthy empty calories, and moderate psychological distress were moderately predictive of sleep quality in the sample (Nagelkerke R2=23.8%). Results of the study suggested higher frequency of consumption of healthy protein and healthy dairy food choices reduced the odds of poor sleep quality, while higher consumption of empty calories and moderate psychological distress increased the odds of poor sleep quality.

  1. High Levels of Sample-to-Sample Variation Confound Data Analysis for Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening of Fetal Microdeletions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjiao Chu

    Full Text Available Our goal was to test the hypothesis that inter-individual genomic copy number variation in control samples is a confounding factor in the non-invasive prenatal detection of fetal microdeletions via the sequence-based analysis of maternal plasma DNA. The database of genomic variants (DGV was used to determine the "Genomic Variants Frequency" (GVF for each 50kb region in the human genome. Whole genome sequencing of fifteen karyotypically normal maternal plasma and six CVS DNA controls samples was performed. The coefficient of variation of relative read counts (cv.RTC for these samples was determined for each 50kb region. Maternal plasma from two pregnancies affected with a chromosome 5p microdeletion was also sequenced, and analyzed using the GCREM algorithm. We found strong correlation between high variance in read counts and GVF amongst controls. Consequently we were unable to confirm the presence of the microdeletion via sequencing of maternal plasma samples obtained from two sequential affected pregnancies. Caution should be exercised when performing NIPT for microdeletions. It is vital to develop our understanding of the factors that impact the sensitivity and specificity of these approaches. In particular, benign copy number variation amongst controls is a major confounder, and their effects should be corrected bioinformatically.

  2. Examination of the Relationship between Oral Health and Arterial Sclerosis without Genetic Confounding through the Study of Older Japanese Twins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuko Kurushima

    Full Text Available Although researchers have recently demonstrated a relationship between oral health and arterial sclerosis, the genetic contribution to this relationship has been ignored even though genetic factors are expected to have some effect on various diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate oral health as a significant risk factor related to arterial sclerosis after eliminating genetic confounding through study of older Japanese twins.Medical and dental surveys were conducted individually for 106 Japanese twin pairs over the age of 50 years. Maximal carotid intima-media thickness (IMT-Cmax was measured as a surrogate marker of arterial sclerosis. IMT-Cmax > 1.0 mm was diagnosed as arterial sclerosis. All of the twins were examined for the number of remaining teeth, masticatory performance, and periodontal status. We evaluated each measurement related with IMT-Cmax and arterial sclerosis using generalized estimating equations analysis adjusted for potential risk factors. For non-smoking monozygotic twins, a regression analysis using a "between within" model was conducted to evaluate the relationship between IMT-Cmax and the number of teeth as the environmental factor controlling genetic and familial confounding.We examined 91 monozygotic and 15 dizygotic twin pairs (males: 42, females: 64 with a mean (± standard deviation age of 67.4 ± 10.0 years. Out of all of the oral health-related measurements collected, only the number of teeth was significantly related to arterial sclerosis (odds ratio: 0.72, 95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.99 per five teeth. Regression analysis showed a significant association between the IMT-Cmax and the number of teeth as an environmental factor (p = 0.037.Analysis of monozygotic twins older than 50 years of age showed that having fewer teeth could be a significant environmental factor related to arterial sclerosis, even after controlling for genetic and familial confounding.

  3. Chasing the effects of Pre-analytical Confounders - a Multicentre Study on CSF-AD biomarkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Joao Leitao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Core cerebrospinal fluid (CSF biomarkers-Aβ42, Tau and pTau–have been recently incorporated in the revised criteria for Alzheimer’s disease (AD. However, their widespread clinical application lacks standardization. Pre-analytical sample handling and storage play an important role in the reliable measurement of these biomarkers across laboratories. In this study, we aim to surpass the efforts from previous studies, by employing a multicentre approach to assess the impact of less studied CSF pre-analytical confounders in AD-biomarkers quantification. Four different centres participated in this study and followed the same established protocol. CSF samples were analysed for three biomarkers (Aβ42, Tau and pTau and tested for different spinning conditions (temperature: Room temperature (RT vs. 4oC; speed: 500g vs. 2000g vs. 3000g, storage volume variations (25%, 50% and 75% of tube total volume as well as freezing-thaw cycles (up to 5 cyles. The influence of sample routine parameters, inter-centre variability and relative value of each biomarker (reported as normal/abnormal, was analysed. Centrifugation conditions did not influence biomarkers levels, except for samples with a high CSF total protein content, where either non centrifugation or centrifugation at RT, compared to 4ºC, led to higher Aβ42 levels. Reducing CSF storage volume from 75% to 50% of total tube capacity, decreased Aβ42 concentration (within analytical CV of the assay, whereas no change in Tau or pTau was observed. Moreover, the concentration of Tau and pTau appears to be stable up to 5 freeze-thaw cycles, whereas Aβ42 levels decrease if CSF is freeze-thawed more than 3 times. This systematic study reinforces the need for CSF centrifugation at 4ºC prior to storage and highlights the influence of storage conditions in Aβ42 levels. This study contributes to the establishment of harmonized standard operating procedures that will help reducing inter-lab variability of CSF

  4. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  5. The impact of bilinguism on cognitive aging and dementia:Finding a path through a forest of confounding variables

    OpenAIRE

    Bak, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Within the current debates on cognitive reserve, cognitive aging and dementia, showing increasingly a positive effect of mental, social and physical activities on health in older age, bilingualism remains one of the most controversial issues. Some reasons for it might be social or even ideological. However, one of the most important genuine problems facing bilingualism research is the high number of potential confounding variables. Bilingual communities often differ from monolingual ones in a...

  6. Childhood trauma is not a confounder of the overlap between autistic and schizotypal traits: A study in a non-clinical adult sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jing-Bo; Wang, Ya; Lui, Simon S Y; Cheung, Eric F C; Chan, Raymond C K

    2017-11-01

    Childhood trauma has been shown to be a robust risk factor for mental disorders, and may exacerbate schizotypal traits or contribute to autistic trait severity. However, little is known whether childhood trauma confounds the overlap between schizotypal traits and autistic traits. This study examined whether childhood trauma acts as a confounding variable in the overlap between autistic and schizotypal traits in a large non-clinical adult sample. A total of 2469 participants completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ), the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ), and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire-Short Form. Correlation analysis showed that the majority of associations between AQ variables and SPQ variables were significant (p autistic and schizotypal traits could not be explained by shared variance in terms of exposure to childhood trauma. The findings point to important overlaps in the conceptualization of ASD and SSD, independent of childhood trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Is the association between general cognitive ability and violent crime caused by family-level confounders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisell, Thomas; Pawitan, Yudi; Långström, Niklas

    2012-01-01

    Research has consistently found lower cognitive ability to be related to increased risk for violent and other antisocial behaviour. Since this association has remained when adjusting for childhood socioeconomic position, ethnicity, and parental characteristics, it is often assumed to be causal, potentially mediated through school adjustment problems and conduct disorder. Socioeconomic differences are notoriously difficult to quantify, however, and it is possible that the association between intelligence and delinquency suffer substantial residual confounding. We linked longitudinal Swedish total population registers to study the association of general cognitive ability (intelligence) at age 18 (the Conscript Register, 1980-1993) with the incidence proportion of violent criminal convictions (the Crime Register, 1973-2009), among all men born in Sweden 1961-1975 (N = 700,514). Using probit regression, we controlled for measured childhood socioeconomic variables, and further employed sibling comparisons (family pedigree data from the Multi-Generation Register) to adjust for shared familial characteristics. Cognitive ability in early adulthood was inversely associated to having been convicted of a violent crime (β = -0.19, 95% CI: -0.19; -0.18), the association remained when adjusting for childhood socioeconomic factors (β = -0.18, 95% CI: -0.18; -0.17). The association was somewhat lower within half-brothers raised apart (β = -0.16, 95% CI: -0.18; -0.14), within half-brothers raised together (β = -0.13, 95% CI: (-0.15; -0.11), and lower still in full-brother pairs (β = -0.10, 95% CI: -0.11; -0.09). The attenuation among half-brothers raised together and full brothers was too strong to be attributed solely to attenuation from measurement error. Our results suggest that the association between general cognitive ability and violent criminality is confounded partly by factors shared by brothers. However, most of the association remains even

  8. Non-Chemical Distant Cellular Interactions as a potential confounder of Cell Biology Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan eFarhadi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Distant cells can communicate with each other through a variety of methods. Two such methods involve electrical and/or chemical mechanisms. Non-chemical, distant cellular interactions may be another method of communication that cells can use to modify the behavior of other cells that are mechanically separated. Moreover, non-chemical, distant cellular interactions may explain some cases of confounding effects in Cell Biology experiments. In this article, we review non-chemical, distant cellular interactions studies to try to shed light on the mechanisms in this highly unconventional field of cell biology. Despite the existence of several theories that try to explain the mechanism of non-chemical, distant cellular interactions, this phenomenon is still speculative. Among candidate mechanisms, electromagnetic waves appear to have the most experimental support. In this brief article, we try to answer a few key questions that may further clarify this mechanism.

  9. BENCH-SCALE VISUALIZATION OF DNAPL REMEDIATION PROCESSES IN ANALOG HETEROGENEOUS AQUIFERS: SURFACTANT FLOODS, AND IN SITU OXIDATION USING PERMANGANATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have conducted well-controlled DNAPL remediation experiments using surfactants (Aerosol MA and Tween 80) to increase solubility and an oxidant (permanganate) to chemically degrade the DNAPL. Photographs and digital image analysis illustrate previously unobserved interactions b...

  10. Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Cheng; Shen, Yan; Wang, Boqing; Weeks, Greg

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates. PMID:26052178

  11. Compromised Motor Dexterity Confounds Processing Speed Task Outcomes in Stroke Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Essie Low

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Most conventional measures of information processing speed require motor responses to facilitate performance. However, although not often addressed clinically, motor impairment, whether due to age or acquired brain injury, would be expected to confound the outcome measure of such tasks. The current study recruited 29 patients (20 stroke and 9 transient ischemic attack with documented reduction in dexterity of the dominant hand, and 29 controls, to investigate the extent to which 3 commonly used processing speed measures with varying motor demands (a Visuo-Motor Reaction Time task, and the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV Symbol Search and Coding subtests may be measuring motor-related speed more so than cognitive speed. Analyses include correlations between indices of cognitive and motor speed obtained from two other tasks (Inspection Time and Pegboard task, respectively with the three speed measures, followed by hierarchical regressions to determine the relative contribution of cognitive and motor speed indices toward task performance. Results revealed that speed outcomes on tasks with relatively high motor demands, such as Coding, were largely reflecting motor speed in individuals with reduced dominant hand dexterity. Thus, findings indicate the importance of employing measures with minimal motor requirements, especially when the assessment of speed is aimed at understanding cognitive rather than physical function.

  12. The First Cut is the Deepest? The Role of the Relationship Career for Union Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poortman, Anne-Rigt

    2007-01-01

    Using retrospective data from the survey Divorce in the Netherlands 1998, I examine the influence of the relationship career on chances of union formation. Frailty models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity show that previous union experiences reduce chances of union formation. Furthermore,

  13. Electronic states of the fluorophore 9,10-bis(phenylethynyl)anthracene (BPEA). A synchrotron radiation linear dichroism investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thulstrup, Peter Waaben; Jones, Nykola; Hoffmann, Søren Vrønning

    2013-01-01

    temperature spectroscopy and by quantum chemical calculations in the LCOAO and TD-DFT models. The combined experimental and theoretical evidence leads to characterization of several previously unobserved transitions and provides a revised polarization analysis of the visible absorption band of BPEA....

  14. Correlation between radon level and confounders of cancer. A note on epidemiological inference at low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hajnal, M.A.; Toth, E.; Hamori, K.; Minda, M.; Koteles, Gy.J.

    2007-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. Objective. The aim of this study was to examine and further clarify the extent of radon and progeny induced carcinogenesis, both separated from and combined with other confounders and health risk factors. This work was financed by National Development Agency, Hungary, with GVOP-3.1.1.-2004-05-0384/3.0. Methods. A case-control study was conducted in a Hungarian countryside region where the proportion of houses with yearly average radon level above 200 Bq.m -3 was estimated to be higher than 20% by our preceding regional surveys. Radon levels were measured with CR39 closed etched detectors for three seasons separately yielding yearly average by estimating the low summer level. The detectors were placed in the bedrooms, where people were expected to spend one third of a day. 520 patients with diagnosed cancers were included in these measurements, amongst which 77 developed lung or respiratory cancers. The control group consisted 6333 individuals, above 30 years of age. Lifestyle risk factors of cancers were collected by surveys including social status, pollution from indoor heating, smoking and alcohol history, nutrition, exercise and mental health index 5. Except smoking and alcohol habits, these cofactors were only available for the control group. Comparing disease occurrences the authors selected the multivariate generalised linear models. The case and control proportions along a given factor are binomially distributed, thus the logit link function was used. For radon both log and linear terms were probed for. Results. Many known health confounders of cancers correlated with radon levels, with an estimated total net increase of 50-150 Bq m -3 with increased risks. For lung cancers the model with the terms radon, age, gender and smoking was found to have the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Heavy dependency on age, gender and smoking contribute largely to observed lung cancer incidence. However log linear relationship

  15. Confounding factors and genetic polymorphism in the evaluation of individual steroid profiling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuuranne, Tiia; Saugy, Martial; Baume, Norbert

    2014-01-01

    In the fight against doping, steroid profiling is a powerful tool to detect drug misuse with endogenous anabolic androgenic steroids. To establish sensitive and reliable models, the factors influencing profiling should be recognised. We performed an extensive literature review of the multiple factors that could influence the quantitative levels and ratios of endogenous steroids in urine matrix. For a comprehensive and scientific evaluation of the urinary steroid profile, it is necessary to define the target analytes as well as testosterone metabolism. The two main confounding factors, that is, endogenous and exogenous factors, are detailed to show the complex process of quantifying the steroid profile within WADA-accredited laboratories. Technical aspects are also discussed as they could have a significant impact on the steroid profile, and thus the steroid module of the athlete biological passport (ABP). The different factors impacting the major components of the steroid profile must be understood to ensure scientifically sound interpretation through the Bayesian model of the ABP. Not only should the statistical data be considered but also the experts in the field must be consulted for successful implementation of the steroidal module. PMID:24764553

  16. Is the association between general cognitive ability and violent crime caused by family-level confounders?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Frisell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Research has consistently found lower cognitive ability to be related to increased risk for violent and other antisocial behaviour. Since this association has remained when adjusting for childhood socioeconomic position, ethnicity, and parental characteristics, it is often assumed to be causal, potentially mediated through school adjustment problems and conduct disorder. Socioeconomic differences are notoriously difficult to quantify, however, and it is possible that the association between intelligence and delinquency suffer substantial residual confounding. METHODS: We linked longitudinal Swedish total population registers to study the association of general cognitive ability (intelligence at age 18 (the Conscript Register, 1980-1993 with the incidence proportion of violent criminal convictions (the Crime Register, 1973-2009, among all men born in Sweden 1961-1975 (N = 700,514. Using probit regression, we controlled for measured childhood socioeconomic variables, and further employed sibling comparisons (family pedigree data from the Multi-Generation Register to adjust for shared familial characteristics. RESULTS: Cognitive ability in early adulthood was inversely associated to having been convicted of a violent crime (β = -0.19, 95% CI: -0.19; -0.18, the association remained when adjusting for childhood socioeconomic factors (β = -0.18, 95% CI: -0.18; -0.17. The association was somewhat lower within half-brothers raised apart (β = -0.16, 95% CI: -0.18; -0.14, within half-brothers raised together (β = -0.13, 95% CI: (-0.15; -0.11, and lower still in full-brother pairs (β = -0.10, 95% CI: -0.11; -0.09. The attenuation among half-brothers raised together and full brothers was too strong to be attributed solely to attenuation from measurement error. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that the association between general cognitive ability and violent criminality is confounded partly by factors shared by

  17. Desire thinking as a confounder in the relationship between mindfulness and craving: Evidence from a cross-cultural validation of the Desire Thinking Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakroun-Baggioni, Nadia; Corman, Maya; Spada, Marcantonio M; Caselli, Gabriele; Gierski, Fabien

    2017-10-01

    Desire thinking and mindfulness have been associated with craving. The aim of the present study was to validate the French version of the Desire Thinking Questionnaire (DTQ) and to investigate the relationship between mindfulness, desire thinking and craving among a sample of university students. Four hundred and ninety six university students completed the DTQ and measures of mindfulness, craving and alcohol use. Results from confirmatory factor analyses showed that the two-factor structure proposed in the original DTQ exhibited suitable goodness-of-fit statistics. The DTQ also demonstrated good internal reliability, temporal stability and predictive validity. A set of linear regressions revealed that desire thinking had a confounding effect in the relationship between mindfulness and craving. The confounding role of desire thinking in the relationship between mindfulness and craving suggests that interrupting desire thinking may be a viable clinical option aimed at reducing craving. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Magnetic Field Dependence and Q of the Josephson Plasma Resonance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Falsig; Finnegan, T. F.; Langenberg, D. N.

    1972-01-01

    of supercurrent density which is not observed in conventional measurements of the field-dependent critical current. The frequency and field dependence of the plasma-resonance linewidth are interpreted as evidence that the previously unobserved quasiparticle-pair-interference tunnel current predicted by Josephson...

  19. Resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization photoelectron spectroscopy of even-parity autoionizing Rydberg states of atomic sulphur

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woutersen, S.; de Milan, J.B.; de Lange, C.A.; Buma, W.J.

    1997-01-01

    Several previously unobserved Rydberg states of the sulphur atom above the lowest ionization threshold are identified and assigned using (2 + 1) resonance-enhanced multiphoton-ionization photoelectron spectroscopy. All states were accessed by two-photon transitions from either the 3P ground or the

  20. A pooling-LiNGAM algorithm for effective connectivity analysis of fMRI data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lele eXu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The Independent Component Analysis - linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM, an algorithm that can be used to estimate the causal relationship among non-Gaussian distributed data, has the potential value to detect the effective connectivity of human brain areas. Under the assumptions that (a: the data generating process is linear, (b there are no unobserved confounders, and (c data have non-Gaussian distributions, LiNGAM can be used to discover the complete causal structure of data. Previous studies reveal that the algorithm could perform well when the data points being analyzed is relatively long. However, there are too few data points in most neuroimaging recordings, especially functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, to allow the algorithm to converge. Smith’s study speculates a method by pooling data points across subjects may be useful to address this issue (Smith et al., 2011. Thus this study focus on validating Smith’s proposal of pooling data points across subjects for the use of LiNGAM, and this method is named as pooling-LiNGAM (pLiNGAM. Using both simulated and real fMRI data, our current study demonstrates the feasibility and efficiency of the pLiNGAM on the effective connectivity estimation.

  1. Measurement error, time lag, unmeasured confounding: Considerations for longitudinal estimation of the effect of a mediator in randomised clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, K A; Chalder, T; White, P D; Sharpe, M; Pickles, A

    2018-06-01

    Clinical trials are expensive and time-consuming and so should also be used to study how treatments work, allowing for the evaluation of theoretical treatment models and refinement and improvement of treatments. These treatment processes can be studied using mediation analysis. Randomised treatment makes some of the assumptions of mediation models plausible, but the mediator-outcome relationship could remain subject to bias. In addition, mediation is assumed to be a temporally ordered longitudinal process, but estimation in most mediation studies to date has been cross-sectional and unable to explore this assumption. This study used longitudinal structural equation modelling of mediator and outcome measurements from the PACE trial of rehabilitative treatments for chronic fatigue syndrome (ISRCTN 54285094) to address these issues. In particular, autoregressive and simplex models were used to study measurement error in the mediator, different time lags in the mediator-outcome relationship, unmeasured confounding of the mediator and outcome, and the assumption of a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time. Results showed that allowing for measurement error and unmeasured confounding were important. Contemporaneous rather than lagged mediator-outcome effects were more consistent with the data, possibly due to the wide spacing of measurements. Assuming a constant mediator-outcome relationship over time increased precision.

  2. Accounting for the Confound of Meninges in Segmenting Entorhinal and Perirhinal Cortices in T1-Weighted MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Long; Wisse, Laura E M; Das, Sandhitsu R; Wang, Hongzhi; Wolk, David A; Manjón, Jose V; Yushkevich, Paul A

    2016-10-01

    Quantification of medial temporal lobe (MTL) cortices, including entorhinal cortex (ERC) and perirhinal cortex (PRC), from in vivo MRI is desirable for studying the human memory system as well as in early diagnosis and monitoring of Alzheimer's disease. However, ERC and PRC are commonly over-segmented in T1-weighted (T1w) MRI because of the adjacent meninges that have similar intensity to gray matter in T1 contrast. This introduces errors in the quantification and could potentially confound imaging studies of ERC/PRC. In this paper, we propose to segment MTL cortices along with the adjacent meninges in T1w MRI using an established multi-atlas segmentation framework together with super-resolution technique. Experimental results comparing the proposed pipeline with existing pipelines support the notion that a large portion of meninges is segmented as gray matter by existing algorithms but not by our algorithm. Cross-validation experiments demonstrate promising segmentation accuracy. Further, agreement between the volume and thickness measures from the proposed pipeline and those from the manual segmentations increase dramatically as a result of accounting for the confound of meninges. Evaluated in the context of group discrimination between patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment and normal controls, the proposed pipeline generates more biologically plausible results and improves the statistical power in discriminating groups in absolute terms comparing to other techniques using T1w MRI. Although the performance of the proposed pipeline is inferior to that using T2-weighted MRI, which is optimized to image MTL sub-structures, the proposed pipeline could still provide important utilities in analyzing many existing large datasets that only have T1w MRI available.

  3. Using Multiple Control Groups and Matching to Address Unobserved Biases in Comparative Effectiveness Research: An Observational Study of the Effectiveness of Mental Health Parity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Frank B; Huskamp, Haiden A; Busch, Alisa B; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2011-06-21

    Studies of large policy interventions typically do not involve randomization. Adjustments, such as matching, can remove the bias due to observed covariates, but residual confounding remains a concern. In this paper we introduce two analytical strategies to bolster inferences of the effectiveness of policy interventions based on observational data. First, we identify how study groups may differ and then select a second comparison group on this source of difference. Second, we match subjects using a strategy that finely balances the distributions of key categorical covariates and stochastically balances on other covariates. An observational study of the effect of parity on the severely ill subjects enrolled in the Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) Program illustrates our methods.

  4. Influence of GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes and confounding factors on the frequency of sister chromatid exchange and micronucleus among road construction workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Anil; Yadav, Anita; Giri, Shiv Kumar; Dev, Kapil; Gautam, Sanjeev Kumar; Gupta, Ranjan; Aggarwal, Neeraj

    2011-07-01

    In the present study, we have investigated the influence of polymorphism of GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes and confounding factors such as age, sex, exposure duration and consumption habits on cytogenetic biomarkers. Frequency of sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs), high frequency cell (HFC) and cytokinesis blocked micronuclei (CBMN) were evaluated in peripheral blood lymphocytes of 115 occupationally exposed road construction workers and 105 unexposed individuals. The distribution of null and positive genotypes of glutathione-S transferase gene was evaluated by multiplex PCR among control and exposed subjects. An increased frequency of CBMN (7.03±2.08); SCE (6.95±1.76) and HFC (6.28±1.69) were found in exposed subjects when compared to referent (CBMN - 3.35±1.10; SCE - 4.13±1.30 and HFC - 3.98±1.56). These results were found statistically significant at p<0.05. When the effect of confounding factors on the frequency of studied biomarkers was evaluated, a strong positive interaction was found. The individuals having GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes had higher frequency of CBMN, SCE and HFC. The association between GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes and studied biomarkers was found statistically significant at p<0.05. Our findings suggest that individuals having null type of GST are more susceptible to cytogenetic damage by occupational exposure regardless of confounding factors. There is a significant effect of polymorphism of these genes on cytogenetic biomarkers which are considered as early effects of genotoxic carcinogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. How to ask about patient satisfaction? The visual analogue scale is less vulnerable to confounding factors and ceiling effect than a symmetric Likert scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voutilainen, Ari; Pitkäaho, Taina; Kvist, Tarja; Vehviläinen-Julkunen, Katri

    2016-04-01

    To study the effects of scale type (visual analogue scale vs. Likert), item order (systematic vs. random), item non-response and patient-related characteristics (age, gender, subjective health, need for assistance with filling out the questionnaire and length of stay) on the results of patient satisfaction surveys. Although patient satisfaction is one of the most intensely studied issues in the health sciences, research information about the effects of possible instrument-related confounding factors on patient satisfaction surveys is scant. A quasi-experimental design was employed. A non-randomized sample of 150 surgical patients was gathered to minimize possible alterations in care quality. Data were collected in May-September 2014 from one tertiary hospital in Finland using the Revised Humane Caring Scale instrument. New versions of the instrument were created for the present purposes. In these versions, items were either in a visual analogue format or Likert-scaled, in systematic or random order. The data were analysed using an analysis of covariance and a paired samples t-test. The visual analogue scale items were less vulnerable to bias from confounding factors than were the Likert-scaled items. The visual analogue scale also avoided the ceiling effect better than Likert and the time needed to complete the visual analogue scale questionnaire was 28% shorter than that needed to complete the Likert-scaled questionnaire. The present results supported the use of visual analogue scale rather than Likert scaling in patient satisfaction surveys and stressed the need to account for as many potential confounding factors as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Sensors on speaking terms: Schedule-based medium access control protocols for wireless sensor networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hoesel, L.F.W.

    2007-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks make the previously unobservable, observable. The basic idea behind these networks is straightforward: all wires are cut in traditional sensing systems and the sensors are equipped with batteries and radio's to virtually restore the cut wires. The resulting sensors can be

  7. Accounting for genetic and environmental confounds in associations between parent and child characteristics : a systematic review of children-of-twins studies

    OpenAIRE

    McAdams, Tom A; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Rijsdijk, Fruhling V; Narusyte, Jurgita; Lichtenstein, Paul; Eley, Thalia C

    2014-01-01

    Parental psychopathology, parenting style, and the quality of intrafamilial relationships are all associated with child mental health outcomes. However, most research can say little about the causal pathways underlying these associations. This is because most studies are not genetically informative and are therefore not able to account for the possibility that associations are confounded by gene-environment correlation. That is, biological parents not only provide a rearing environment for th...

  8. Excess Mortality in Hyperthyroidism: The Influence of Preexisting Comorbidity and Genetic Confounding: A Danish Nationwide Register-Based Cohort Study of Twins and Singletons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Frans; Almind, Dorthe; Christensen, Kaare; Green, Anders; Brix, Thomas Heiberg

    2012-01-01

    Context: Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased mortality and, if so, whether the association is influenced by comorbidity and/or genetic confounding. Methods: This was an observational cohort study using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers. We identified 4850 singletons and 926 twins from same-sex pairs diagnosed with hyperthyroidism. Each case was matched with four controls for age and gender. The Charlson score was calculated from discharge diagnoses on an individual level to measure comorbidity. Cases and controls were followed up for a mean of 10 yr (range 0–31 yr), and the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was calculated using Cox regression analyses. Results: In singletons there was a significantly higher mortality in individuals diagnosed with hyperthyroidism than in controls [HR 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30–1.46]. This persisted after adjustment for preexisting comorbidity (HR 1,28; 95% CI 1.21–1.36). In twin pairs discordant for hyperthyroidism (625 pairs), the twin with hyperthyroidism had an increased mortality compared with the corresponding cotwin (HR 1.43; 95% CI 1.09–1.88). However, this was found only in dizygotic pairs (HR 1.80; 95% CI 1.27–2.55) but not in monozygotic pairs (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.60–1.50). Conclusions: Hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased mortality independent of preexisting comorbidity. The study of twin pairs discordant for hyperthyroidism suggests that genetic confounding influences the association between hyperthyroidism and mortality. PMID:22930783

  9. Maternal psychological distress and placental circulation in pregnancies after a previous offspring with congenital malformation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Helbig

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Antenatal maternal psychological distress may be associated with reduced placental circulation, which could lead to lower birthweight. Studies investigating this in humans show mixed results, which may be partially due to type, strength and timing of distress. In addition, the arterial vascular resistance measures often used as outcome measures do not detect smaller changes in placental volume blood flow. We aimed to investigate the effect of a specific stressor, with increased levels of stress early in pregnancy, on the fetoplacental volume blood flow in third trimester. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study of 74 pregnant women with a congenital malformation in a previous fetus or child. Psychological distress was assessed twice, around 16 and 30 weeks' gestation. Psychometric measures were the General Health Questionnaire-28 (subscales anxiety and depression, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and Impact of Event Scale-22 (subscales intrusion, avoidance, and arousal. Placental circulation was examined at 30 weeks, using Doppler ultrasonography, primarily as fetoplacental volume blood flow in the umbilical vein, normalized for abdominal circumference; secondarily as vascular resistance measures, obtained from the umbilical and the uterine arteries. RESULTS: Maternal distress in second but not third trimester was associated with increased normalized fetoplacental blood flow (P-values 0.006 and 0.013 for score > mean for depression and intrusion, respectively. Post-hoc explorations suggested that a reduced birthweight/placental weight ratio may mediate this association. Psychological distress did not affect vascular resistance measures in the umbilical and uterine arteries, regardless of adjustment for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In pregnant women with a previous fetus or child with a congenital malformation, higher distress levels in second trimester were associated with third trimester fetoplacental blood flow that

  10. Influence of potentially confounding factors on sea urchin porewater toxicity tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, R.S.; Biedenbach, J.M.; Nipper, M.

    2006-01-01

    The influence of potentially confounding factors has been identified as a concern for interpreting sea urchin porewater toxicity test data. The results from >40 sediment-quality assessment surveys using early-life stages of the sea urchin Arbacia punctulata were compiled and examined to determine acceptable ranges of natural variables such as pH, ammonia, and dissolved organic carbon on the fertilization and embryological development endpoints. In addition, laboratory experiments were also conducted with A. punctulata and compared with information from the literature. Pore water with pH as low as 6.9 is an unlikely contributor to toxicity for the fertilization and embryological development tests with A. punctulata. Other species of sea urchin have narrower pH tolerance ranges. Ammonia is rarely a contributing factor in pore water toxicity tests using the fertilization endpoint, but the embryological development endpoint may be influenced by ammonia concentrations commonly found in porewater samples. Therefore, ammonia needs to be considered when interpreting results for the embryological development test. Humic acid does not affect sea urchin fertilization at saturation concentrations, but it could have an effect on the embryological development endpoint at near-saturation concentrations. There was no correlation between sediment total organic carbon concentrations and porewater dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Because of the potential for many varying substances to activate parthenogenesis in sea urchin eggs, it is recommended that a no-sperm control be included with every fertilization test treatment. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

  11. The Relationship between Patient Satisfaction with Service Quality and Survival in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer - Is Self-Rated Health a Potential Confounder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher G Lis

    Full Text Available Previously we reported that higher patient satisfaction (PS with service quality is associated with favorable survival outcomes in a variety of cancers. However, we cautioned the readers that patients with greater satisfaction might be the ones with better self-rated health (SRH, a well-established prognosticator of cancer survival. In other words, SRH could potentially confound the PS and survival relationship. We investigated this hypothesis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC.778 NSCLC patients (327 males and 451 females; mean age 58.8 years treated at 4 Cancer Treatment Centers of America hospitals between July 2011 and March 2013. PS was measured on a 7-point scale ranging from "completely dissatisfied" to "completely satisfied". SRH was measured on a 7-point scale ranging from "very poor" to "excellent". Both were dichotomized into 2 categories: top box response (7 versus all others (1-6. Patient survival was the primary end point. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between PS and survival controlling for covariates.74, 70, 232 and 391 patients had stage I, II, III and IV disease respectively. 631 (81.1% patients were "completely satisfied". 184 (23.7% patients had "excellent" SRH. There was a weak but significant correlation between overall PS and SRH (Kendall's tau b = 0.19; p<0.001. On univariate analysis, "completely satisfied" patients had a significantly lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.99; p = 0.04. Similarly, patients with "excellent" SRH had a significantly lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.81; p = 0.001. On multivariate analysis controlling for stage at diagnosis, treatment history and gender, SRH was found to be a significant predictor of survival (HR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.89; p = 0.007 while PS was not (HR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.2; p = 0.32. Among the individual PS items, the only significant independent predictor of survival was "teams communicating with each

  12. The Relationship between Patient Satisfaction with Service Quality and Survival in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer - Is Self-Rated Health a Potential Confounder?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lis, Christopher G; Patel, Kamal; Gupta, Digant

    2015-01-01

    Previously we reported that higher patient satisfaction (PS) with service quality is associated with favorable survival outcomes in a variety of cancers. However, we cautioned the readers that patients with greater satisfaction might be the ones with better self-rated health (SRH), a well-established prognosticator of cancer survival. In other words, SRH could potentially confound the PS and survival relationship. We investigated this hypothesis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). 778 NSCLC patients (327 males and 451 females; mean age 58.8 years) treated at 4 Cancer Treatment Centers of America hospitals between July 2011 and March 2013. PS was measured on a 7-point scale ranging from "completely dissatisfied" to "completely satisfied". SRH was measured on a 7-point scale ranging from "very poor" to "excellent". Both were dichotomized into 2 categories: top box response (7) versus all others (1-6). Patient survival was the primary end point. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between PS and survival controlling for covariates. 74, 70, 232 and 391 patients had stage I, II, III and IV disease respectively. 631 (81.1%) patients were "completely satisfied". 184 (23.7%) patients had "excellent" SRH. There was a weak but significant correlation between overall PS and SRH (Kendall's tau b = 0.19; p<0.001). On univariate analysis, "completely satisfied" patients had a significantly lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.99; p = 0.04). Similarly, patients with "excellent" SRH had a significantly lower risk of mortality (HR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.81; p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis controlling for stage at diagnosis, treatment history and gender, SRH was found to be a significant predictor of survival (HR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.89; p = 0.007) while PS was not (HR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.2; p = 0.32). Among the individual PS items, the only significant independent predictor of survival was "teams communicating with each other

  13. A sibling method for identifying vQTLs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conley, Dalton; Johnson, Rebecca; Domingue, Ben; Dawes, Christopher; Boardman, Jason; Siegal, Mark

    2018-01-01

    The propensity of a trait to vary within a population may have evolutionary, ecological, or clinical significance. In the present study we deploy sibling models to offer a novel and unbiased way to ascertain loci associated with the extent to which phenotypes vary (variance-controlling quantitative trait loci, or vQTLs). Previous methods for vQTL-mapping either exclude genetically related individuals or treat genetic relatedness among individuals as a complicating factor addressed by adjusting estimates for non-independence in phenotypes. The present method uses genetic relatedness as a tool to obtain unbiased estimates of variance effects rather than as a nuisance. The family-based approach, which utilizes random variation between siblings in minor allele counts at a locus, also allows controls for parental genotype, mean effects, and non-linear (dominance) effects that may spuriously appear to generate variation. Simulations show that the approach performs equally well as two existing methods (squared Z-score and DGLM) in controlling type I error rates when there is no unobserved confounding, and performs significantly better than these methods in the presence of small degrees of confounding. Using height and BMI as empirical applications, we investigate SNPs that alter within-family variation in height and BMI, as well as pathways that appear to be enriched. One significant SNP for BMI variability, in the MAST4 gene, replicated. Pathway analysis revealed one gene set, encoding members of several signaling pathways related to gap junction function, which appears significantly enriched for associations with within-family height variation in both datasets (while not enriched in analysis of mean levels). We recommend approximating laboratory random assignment of genotype using family data and more careful attention to the possible conflation of mean and variance effects.

  14. A sibling method for identifying vQTLs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingue, Ben; Dawes, Christopher; Boardman, Jason; Siegal, Mark

    2018-01-01

    The propensity of a trait to vary within a population may have evolutionary, ecological, or clinical significance. In the present study we deploy sibling models to offer a novel and unbiased way to ascertain loci associated with the extent to which phenotypes vary (variance-controlling quantitative trait loci, or vQTLs). Previous methods for vQTL-mapping either exclude genetically related individuals or treat genetic relatedness among individuals as a complicating factor addressed by adjusting estimates for non-independence in phenotypes. The present method uses genetic relatedness as a tool to obtain unbiased estimates of variance effects rather than as a nuisance. The family-based approach, which utilizes random variation between siblings in minor allele counts at a locus, also allows controls for parental genotype, mean effects, and non-linear (dominance) effects that may spuriously appear to generate variation. Simulations show that the approach performs equally well as two existing methods (squared Z-score and DGLM) in controlling type I error rates when there is no unobserved confounding, and performs significantly better than these methods in the presence of small degrees of confounding. Using height and BMI as empirical applications, we investigate SNPs that alter within-family variation in height and BMI, as well as pathways that appear to be enriched. One significant SNP for BMI variability, in the MAST4 gene, replicated. Pathway analysis revealed one gene set, encoding members of several signaling pathways related to gap junction function, which appears significantly enriched for associations with within-family height variation in both datasets (while not enriched in analysis of mean levels). We recommend approximating laboratory random assignment of genotype using family data and more careful attention to the possible conflation of mean and variance effects. PMID:29617452

  15. Handling stress may confound murine gut microbiota studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cary R. Allen-Blevins

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Accumulating evidence indicates interactions between human milk composition, particularly sugars (human milk oligosaccharides or HMO, the gut microbiota of human infants, and behavioral effects. Some HMO secreted in human milk are unable to be endogenously digested by the human infant but are able to be metabolized by certain species of gut microbiota, including Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis (B. infantis, a species sensitive to host stress (Bailey & Coe, 2004. Exposure to gut bacteria like B. infantisduring critical neurodevelopment windows in early life appears to have behavioral consequences; however, environmental, physical, and social stress during this period can also have behavioral and microbial consequences. While rodent models are a useful method for determining causal relationships between HMO, gut microbiota, and behavior, murine studies of gut microbiota usually employ oral gavage, a technique stressful to the mouse. Our aim was to develop a less-invasive technique for HMO administration to remove the potential confound of gavage stress. Under the hypothesis that stress affects gut microbiota, particularly B. infantis, we predicted the pups receiving a prebiotic solution in a less-invasive manner would have the highest amount of Bifidobacteria in their gut. Methods This study was designed to test two methods, active and passive, of solution administration to mice and the effects on their gut microbiome. Neonatal C57BL/6J mice housed in a specific-pathogen free facility received increasing doses of fructooligosaccharide (FOS solution or deionized, distilled water. Gastrointestinal (GI tracts were collected from five dams, six sires, and 41 pups over four time points. Seven fecal pellets from unhandled pups and two pellets from unhandled dams were also collected. Qualitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR was used to quantify and compare the amount of Bifidobacterium, Bacteroides, Bacteroidetes, and

  16. Improving observational study estimates of treatment effects using joint modeling of selection effects and outcomes: the case of AAA repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, A James; Cotterill, Philip; Schermerhorn, Marc L; Landon, Bruce E

    2011-12-01

    When 2 treatment approaches are available, there are likely to be unmeasured confounders that influence choice of procedure, which complicates estimation of the causal effect of treatment on outcomes using observational data. To estimate the effect of endovascular (endo) versus open surgical (open) repair, including possible modification by institutional volume, on survival after treatment for abdominal aortic aneurysm, accounting for observed and unobserved confounding variables. Observational study of data from the Medicare program using a joint model of treatment selection and survival given treatment to estimate the effects of type of surgery and institutional volume on survival. We studied 61,414 eligible repairs of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms during 2001 to 2004. The outcome, perioperative death, is defined as in-hospital death or death within 30 days of operation. The key predictors are use of endo, transformed endo and open volume, and endo-volume interactions. There is strong evidence of nonrandom selection of treatment with potential confounding variables including institutional volume and procedure date, variables not typically adjusted for in clinical trials. The best fitting model included heterogeneous transformations of endo volume for endo cases and open volume for open cases as predictors. Consistent with our hypothesis, accounting for unmeasured selection reduced the mortality benefit of endo. The effect of endo versus open surgery varies nonlinearly with endo and open volume. Accounting for institutional experience and unmeasured selection enables better decision-making by physicians making treatment referrals, investigators evaluating treatments, and policy makers.

  17. Laparoscopy After Previous Laparotomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulfo Godinjak

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Following the abdominal surgery, extensive adhesions often occur and they can cause difficulties during laparoscopic operations. However, previous laparotomy is not considered to be a contraindication for laparoscopy. The aim of this study is to present that an insertion of Veres needle in the region of umbilicus is a safe method for creating a pneumoperitoneum for laparoscopic operations after previous laparotomy. In the last three years, we have performed 144 laparoscopic operations in patients that previously underwent one or two laparotomies. Pathology of digestive system, genital organs, Cesarean Section or abdominal war injuries were the most common causes of previouslaparotomy. During those operations or during entering into abdominal cavity we have not experienced any complications, while in 7 patients we performed conversion to laparotomy following the diagnostic laparoscopy. In all patients an insertion of Veres needle and trocar insertion in the umbilical region was performed, namely a technique of closed laparoscopy. Not even in one patient adhesions in the region of umbilicus were found, and no abdominal organs were injured.

  18. The obesity paradox in stable chronic heart failure does not persist after matching for indicators of disease severity and confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenstein, Lutz; Zugck, Christian; Nelles, Manfred; Schellberg, Dieter; Katus, Hugo A; Remppis, B Andrew

    2009-12-01

    To verify whether controlling for indicators of disease severity and confounders represents a solution to the obesity paradox in chronic heart failure (CHF). From a cohort of 1790 patients, we formed 230 nested matched triplets by individually matching patients with body mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m(2) (Group 3), BMI 20-24.9 k/m(2) (Group 1) and BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2) (Group 2), according to NT-proBNP, age, sex, and NYHA class (triplet = one matched patient from each group). Although in the pre-matching cohort, BMI group was a significant univariable prognostic indicator, it did not retain significance [heart rate (HR): 0.91, 95% CI: 0.78-1.05, chi(2): 1.67] when controlled for group propensities as covariates. Furthermore, in the matched cohort, 1-year mortality and 3-year mortality did not differ significantly. Here, BMI again failed to reach statistical significance for prognosis, either as a continuous or categorical variable, whether crude or adjusted. This result was confirmed in the patients not selected for matching. NT-proBNP, however, remained statistically significant (log(NT-proBNP): HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.13-1.97, chi(2): 7.82) after multivariable adjustment. The obesity paradox does not appear to persist in a matched setting with respect to indicators of disease severity and other confounders. NT-proBNP remains an independent prognostic indicator of adverse outcome irrespective of obesity status.

  19. Multiple paths in educational transitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2011-01-01

    In many countries educational branching points consist of more than two qualitatively different alternatives, and only some alternatives provide the opportunity of continuing into higher education. I develop a multinomial transition model for modeling the effects of family background...... characteristics and individual characteristics on these complex educational careers. The model controls for unobserved heterogeneity that may, if ignored, result in biased estimates. Compared to previous research, I explicitly include instrumental variables that ensure identification of the unobserved component....... I apply the model to the Danish case and analyze data which covers the educational careers of a cohort of Danes born around 1954. I find that the model brings forward non-trivial heterogeneity in the influence of family background and ability on qualitatively different choice alternatives both...

  20. Future relativistic heavy ion experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugh, H.G.

    1980-12-01

    Equations of state for nuclear matter and ongoing experimental studies are discussed. Relativistic heavy ion physics is the only opportunity to study in the laboratory the properties of extended multiquark systems under conditions such that quarks might run together into new arrangements previously unobserved. Several lines of further study are mentioned

  1. Does Graded Return to Work Improve Disabled Workers’ Labour Market Attachment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høgelund, Jan; Holm, Anders; McIntosh, James

    for the hours off work. When the worker’s health improves, working hours are increased until the sick-listed worker is able to work regular hours. Previous studies either concern specially designed pro-grams with a limited population of disabled workers or they do not take into account the unobserved...

  2. An Investigation into Appraisal Bias: The Role of Decision Support Tools in Debiasing Valuation Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Owen Alan

    2011-01-01

    Given the nature of the valuation task environment appraisers are often made aware of previous value opinions rendered by appraisers, commonly in the form of an historic appraisal. And, because an appraisal task involves the rendering of market value, a hypothetical, unobservable construct based on probabilities, direct feedback against this…

  3. Previous dropout from diabetic care as a predictor of patients' willingness to use mobile applications for self-management: A cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Satoko; Waki, Kayo; Tomizawa, Nobuko; Waki, Hironori; Nannya, Yasuhito; Nangaku, Masaomi; Kadowaki, Takashi; Ohe, Kazuhiko

    2017-07-01

    Preventing dropout is crucial in managing diabetes. Accordingly, we investigated whether patients who had dropped out of diabetic care are suitable candidates for the use of mobile technologies - such as smartphone applications - to support self-management (mHealth), which might help prevent dropout. We carried out a cross-sectional study in Tokyo, Japan. Patients aged 20 years or older who were clinically diagnosed as diabetic and who regularly visited the outpatient unit at the University of Tokyo Hospital were recruited between August 2014 and March 2015. Data were collected through face-to-face structured interviews, physical measurements and medical records. Participants were asked whether they were willing to use mHealth after being shown DialBetics - an mHealth application for diabetics - as an example, and about their history of dropout and previous mHealth experience. Data were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression models. Of 307 patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, 34 (11.1%) had previously dropped out from diabetic care. Multivariate analysis identified previous mHealth experience as a negative predictor of dropout (odds ratio 0.211, P = 0.023). Of those 34 patients, 27 (79.4%) expressed willingness to use mHealth, a significantly higher percentage than for those who had never dropped out (51.5%, P = 0.002). After adjusting for confounders, history of dropout remained a strong predictor of willingness (odds ratio 3.870, P = 0.004). Patients who previously dropped out of diabetic care are suitable candidates for mHealth. Future studies must evaluate whether mHealth is effective for preventing repeated dropout and improving glycemic control among this population. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  4. Is social isolation/alienation confounded with, and non-independent of, emotional distress in its association with early onset of coronary artery disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketterer, Mark; Rose, Benjamin; Knysz, Walter; Farha, Amjad; Deveshwar, Sangita; Schairer, John; Keteyian, Steven J

    2011-03-01

    Both emotional distress (ED) and social isolation/alienation (SI/A) have been found to prospectively predict adverse cardiac events, but few studies have tested the confounding/redundancy of these measures as correlates/predictors of outcomes. In this study, 163 patients with documented coronary artery disease (CAD) were interviewed for multiple indices of SI/A and administered the Symptom Checklist 90 - Revised (SCL90R). A spouse or friend provided an independent rating of ED using the spouse/friend version of the Ketterer Stress Symptom Frequency Checklist (KSSFC). The measures of ED and SI/A covaried. All three scales from the KSSFC (depression, anxiety, and "AIAI" - aggravation, irritation, anger, and impatience), and three scales from the SCL90R (anxiety, depression, and psychoticism), were associated with early Age at Initial Diagnosis (AAID) of CAD. Neither three scales derived from the SCL90R (shyness, feeling abused, and feeling lonely) nor the interview indices of SI/A (married, living alone, having a confidant, self description as a lone wolf, and self-description as lonely) were associated with early AAID. Thus, it is concluded that the present results indicate that ED and SI/A are confounded and that, even when tested head-to-head in a multivariate analysis, only ED is associated with AAID.

  5. Preoperative screening: value of previous tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, D S; Snow, R; Lofgren, R P

    1990-12-15

    To determine the frequency of tests done in the year before elective surgery that might substitute for preoperative screening tests and to determine the frequency of test results that change from a normal value to a value likely to alter perioperative management. Retrospective cohort analysis of computerized laboratory data (complete blood count, sodium, potassium, and creatinine levels, prothrombin time, and partial thromboplastin time). Urban tertiary care Veterans Affairs Hospital. Consecutive sample of 1109 patients who had elective surgery in 1988. At admission, 7549 preoperative tests were done, 47% of which duplicated tests performed in the previous year. Of 3096 previous results that were normal as defined by hospital reference range and done closest to the time of but before admission (median interval, 2 months), 13 (0.4%; 95% CI, 0.2% to 0.7%), repeat values were outside a range considered acceptable for surgery. Most of the abnormalities were predictable from the patient's history, and most were not noted in the medical record. Of 461 previous tests that were abnormal, 78 (17%; CI, 13% to 20%) repeat values at admission were outside a range considered acceptable for surgery (P less than 0.001, frequency of clinically important abnormalities of patients with normal previous results with those with abnormal previous results). Physicians evaluating patients preoperatively could safely substitute the previous test results analyzed in this study for preoperative screening tests if the previous tests are normal and no obvious indication for retesting is present.

  6. High SNR Acquisitions Improve the Repeatability of Liver Fat Quantification Using Confounder-corrected Chemical Shift-encoded MR Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motosugi, Utaroh; Hernando, Diego; Wiens, Curtis; Bannas, Peter; Reeder, Scott. B

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) acquisitions improve the repeatability of liver proton density fat fraction (PDFF) measurements using confounder-corrected chemical shift-encoded magnetic resonance (MR) imaging (CSE-MRI). Materials and Methods: Eleven fat-water phantoms were scanned with 8 different protocols with varying SNR. After repositioning the phantoms, the same scans were repeated to evaluate the test-retest repeatability. Next, an in vivo study was performed with 20 volunteers and 28 patients scheduled for liver magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Two CSE-MRI protocols with standard- and high-SNR were repeated to assess test-retest repeatability. MR spectroscopy (MRS)-based PDFF was acquired as a standard of reference. The standard deviation (SD) of the difference (Δ) of PDFF measured in the two repeated scans was defined to ascertain repeatability. The correlation between PDFF of CSE-MRI and MRS was calculated to assess accuracy. The SD of Δ and correlation coefficients of the two protocols (standard- and high-SNR) were compared using F-test and t-test, respectively. Two reconstruction algorithms (complex-based and magnitude-based) were used for both the phantom and in vivo experiments. Results: The phantom study demonstrated that higher SNR improved the repeatability for both complex- and magnitude-based reconstruction. Similarly, the in vivo study demonstrated that the repeatability of the high-SNR protocol (SD of Δ = 0.53 for complex- and = 0.85 for magnitude-based fit) was significantly higher than using the standard-SNR protocol (0.77 for complex, P magnitude-based fit, P = 0.003). No significant difference was observed in the accuracy between standard- and high-SNR protocols. Conclusion: Higher SNR improves the repeatability of fat quantification using confounder-corrected CSE-MRI. PMID:28190853

  7. Neuroticism explains unwanted variance in Implicit Association Tests of personality: Possible evidence for an affective valence confound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika eFleischhauer

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Meta-analytic data highlight the value of the Implicit Association Test (IAT as an indirect measure of personality. Based on evidence suggesting that confounding factors such as cognitive abilities contribute to the IAT effect, this study provides a first investigation of whether basic personality traits explain unwanted variance in the IAT. In a gender-balanced sample of 204 volunteers, the Big-Five dimensions were assessed via self-report, peer-report, and IAT. By means of structural equation modeling, latent Big-Five personality factors (based on self- and peer-report were estimated and their predictive value for unwanted variance in the IAT was examined. In a first analysis, unwanted variance was defined in the sense of method-specific variance which may result from differences in task demands between the two IAT block conditions and which can be mirrored by the absolute size of the IAT effects. In a second analysis, unwanted variance was examined in a broader sense defined as those systematic variance components in the raw IAT scores that are not explained by the latent implicit personality factors. In contrast to the absolute IAT scores, this also considers biases associated with the direction of IAT effects (i.e., whether they are positive or negative in sign, biases that might result, for example, from the IAT’s stimulus or category features. None of the explicit Big-Five factors was predictive for method-specific variance in the IATs (first analysis. However, when considering unwanted variance that goes beyond pure method-specific variance (second analysis, a substantial effect of neuroticism occurred that may have been driven by the affective valence of IAT attribute categories and the facilitated processing of negative stimuli, typically associated with neuroticism. The findings thus point to the necessity of using attribute category labels and stimuli of similar affective valence in personality IATs to avoid confounding due to

  8. Entrepreneurial motives and performance: Why might better educated entrepreneurs be less successful?

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharjee , Arnab; Bonnet , Jean; Le Pape , Nicolas; Renault , Régis

    2009-01-01

    In a sample of newly created French firms, the impact of an entrepreneurís education on the firm's survival varies widely depending on his previous labor market situation. While it is strongly positive for the overall population, it is much weaker or insignificant for entrepreneurs who were previously unemployed or poorly matched. Our theoretical entrepreneurship model shows that these differences may be attributed to differences in unobserved human capital for better educated entrepreneurs a...

  9. Energy levels of 56Mn

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Assche, P. H. M.; Baader, H. A.; Koch, H. R.

    1971-01-01

    The low-energy spectrum of the 55Mn(n,γ)56 Mn reaction has been studied with a γ-diffraction spectrometer. These data allowed the construction of a level scheme for 56Mn with two previously unobserved doublets. High-energy γ-transitions to the low-energy states have been measured for different...

  10. High spin rotational bands in Zn

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We present here some preliminary results from our studies in the. ~ ¼ region in which we have observed an yrast band structure in Zn extending to spin (41/2 ). ... gaps implies that nuclei may exhibit different shapes at different excitation energies. .... uration, identifying previously unobserved states up to an excitation energy ...

  11. Mildly elevated serum total bilirubin is negatively associated with hemoglobin A1c independently of confounding factors among community-dwelling middle-aged and elderly persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuichi Kawamoto

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abnormally high glycated hemoglobin (Hb (HbA1c is significantly associated with oxidative stress and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Serum total bilirubin (T-B may have a beneficial role in preventing oxidative changes and be a negative risk factor of CVD. Limited information is available on whether serum T-B is an independent confounding factor of HbA1c. The study subjects were 633 men aged 70 ± 9 (mean ± standard deviation (SD years and 878 women aged 70 ± 8 years who were enrolled consecutively from among patients aged ≥40 years through a community-based annual check-up process. We evaluated the relationship between various confounding factors including serum T-B and HbA1c in each gender. Multiple linear regression analysis pertaining to HbA1c showed that in men, serum T-B ( β = −0.139 as well as waist circumference ( β = 0.099, exercise habit ( β = 0.137, systolic blood pressure (SBP ( β = 0.076, triglycerides ( β = 0.087, and uric acid ( β = −0.123 were significantly and independently associated with HbA1c, and in women, serum T-B ( β = −0.084 as well as body mass index ( β = 0.090, smoking status ( β = −0.077, SBP ( β = 0.117, diastolic blood pressure (DBP ( β = −0.155, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ( β = 0.074, prevalence of antidyslipidemic medication ( β = 0.174, and uric acid ( β = 0.090 were also significantly and independently associated with HbA1c. Multivariate-adjusted serum HbA1c levels were significantly high in subjects with the lowest serum T-B levels in both genders. Serum T-B is an independent confounding factor for HbA1c among community-dwelling middle-aged and elderly persons.

  12. Comorbidity and confounding factors in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and sleep disorders in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang YS

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Ya-Wen Jan1,2, Chien-Ming Yang1,3, Yu-Shu Huang4,51Department of Psychology, National Cheng-Chi University, Taipei; 2Sleep Center of Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei; 3The Research Center for Mind Brain and Learning, National Cheng-Chi University, Taipei; 4Department of Child Psychiatry and Sleep Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan; 5College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, TaiwanAbstract: Sleep problems are commonly reported in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD symptoms. Research data regarding the complex and reciprocal relationship between ADHD and sleep disturbances has now accumulated. This paper is focused on the types of sleep problems that are associated with ADHD symptomatology, and attempts to untangle confounding factors and overlapping symptoms. The goal is also to present an updated overview of the pathophysiology of and treatment strategies for sleep problems in children with ADHD. The review also points out that future research will be needed to clarify further the other psychiatric comorbidities and side effects of medication in order to improve treatment outcomes and prevent misdiagnosis in clinical practice.Keywords: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, sleep, children 

  13. Beyond total treatment effects in randomised controlled trials: Baseline measurement of intermediate outcomes needed to reduce confounding in mediation investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landau, Sabine; Emsley, Richard; Dunn, Graham

    2018-06-01

    Random allocation avoids confounding bias when estimating the average treatment effect. For continuous outcomes measured at post-treatment as well as prior to randomisation (baseline), analyses based on (A) post-treatment outcome alone, (B) change scores over the treatment phase or (C) conditioning on baseline values (analysis of covariance) provide unbiased estimators of the average treatment effect. The decision to include baseline values of the clinical outcome in the analysis is based on precision arguments, with analysis of covariance known to be most precise. Investigators increasingly carry out explanatory analyses to decompose total treatment effects into components that are mediated by an intermediate continuous outcome and a non-mediated part. Traditional mediation analysis might be performed based on (A) post-treatment values of the intermediate and clinical outcomes alone, (B) respective change scores or (C) conditioning on baseline measures of both intermediate and clinical outcomes. Using causal diagrams and Monte Carlo simulation, we investigated the performance of the three competing mediation approaches. We considered a data generating model that included three possible confounding processes involving baseline variables: The first two processes modelled baseline measures of the clinical variable or the intermediate variable as common causes of post-treatment measures of these two variables. The third process allowed the two baseline variables themselves to be correlated due to past common causes. We compared the analysis models implied by the competing mediation approaches with this data generating model to hypothesise likely biases in estimators, and tested these in a simulation study. We applied the methods to a randomised trial of pragmatic rehabilitation in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome, which examined the role of limiting activities as a mediator. Estimates of causal mediation effects derived by approach (A) will be biased if one of

  14. The Effects of Distance to Dentists and Dentist Supply on Children's Use of Dental Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehby, George L; Shane, Dan M; Joshi, Adweta; Momany, Elizabeth; Chi, Donald L; Kuthy, Raymond A; Damiano, Peter C

    2017-10-01

    To examine the effects of distance to dentists and dentist supply on dental services use among children with Medicaid coverage in Iowa. Iowa Medicaid claims for enrolled children between 2000 and 2009. The study sample included 41,554 children (providing 158,942 child-year observations) who were born in Iowa between 2000 and 2006 and enrolled from birth in the Iowa Medicaid program. Children were followed through 2009. We used logistic regression to simultaneously examine the effects of distance (miles to nearest dentist) and county-level dentist supply on a broad range of dental services controlling for key confounders. Additional models only used within-child variation over time to remove unobservable time-invariant confounders. Distance was related to lower utilization of comprehensive dental exams (2 percent lower odds per 1 mile increase in distance), an effect that also held in models using within-child variation only. Dentist supply was positively related to comprehensive exams and other preventive services and negatively related to major dental treatments; however, these associations became smaller and insignificant when examining within-child changes except for other preventive services. Longer distance to dentists is a barrier for use of comprehensive dental exams, conditional on dentist supply. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  15. Resolved nuclear hyperfine structure of muonium centres in CuCl and GaAs by means of the avoided-level-crossing technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, J.W.; Keller, H.; Schmid, B.; Boesiger, K.; Kuendig, W.; Odermatt, W.; Patterson, B.D.; Puempin, B.; Simmler, H.; Savic, I.M.; Heming, M.; Reid, I.D.; Roduner, E.; Louwrier, P.W.F.

    1988-01-01

    Avoided-level-crossing resonances from isotropic muonium centres interacting with neighbouring nuclear spins in powdered CuCl are reported. The prominent resonances have a complex multiline structure and are strongly temperature-dependent. In addition, previously unobserved resonances in single-crystal GaAs from anomalous muonium interacting with a 71 Ga neighbour are presented. (orig.)

  16. Measurement errors in polymerase chain reaction are a confounding factor for a correct interpretation of 5-HTTLPR polymorphism effects on lifelong premature ejaculation: a critical analysis of a previously published meta-analysis of six studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Paddy K C; Olivier, Berend; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Waldinger, Marcel D

    2014-01-01

    To analyze a recently published meta-analysis of six studies on 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and lifelong premature ejaculation (PE). Calculation of fraction observed and expected genotype frequencies and Hardy Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) of cases and controls. LL,SL and SS genotype frequencies of patients were subtracted from genotype frequencies of an ideal population (LL25%, SL50%, SS25%, p = 1 for HWE). Analysis of PCRs of six studies and re-analysis of the analysis and Odds ratios (ORs) reported in the recently published meta-analysis. Three studies deviated from HWE in patients and one study deviated from HWE in controls. In three studies in-HWE the mean deviation of genotype frequencies from a theoretical population not-deviating from HWE was small: LL(1.7%), SL(-2.3%), SS(0.6%). In three studies not-in-HWE the mean deviation of genotype frequencies was high: LL(-3.3%), SL(-18.5%) and SS(21.8%) with very low percentage SL genotype concurrent with very high percentage SS genotype. The most serious PCR deviations were reported in the three not-in-HWE studies. The three in-HWE studies had normal OR. In contrast, the three not-in-HWE studies had a low OR. In three studies not-in-HWE and with very low OR, inadequate PCR analysis and/or inadequate interpretation of its gel electrophoresis resulted in very low SL and a resulting shift to very high SS genotype frequency outcome. Consequently, PCRs of these three studies are not reliable. Failure to note the inadequacy of PCR tests makes such PCRs a confounding factor in clinical interpretation of genetic studies. Currently, a meta-analysis can only be performed on three studies-in-HWE. However, based on the three studies-in-HWE with OR of about 1 there is not any indication that in men with lifelong PE the frequency of LL,SL and SS genotype deviates from the general male population and/or that the SL or SS genotype is in any way associated with lifelong PE.

  17. The effect of breastfeeding on neuro-development in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrory, Cathal; Murray, Aisling

    2013-11-01

    The present study examines whether breastfeeding is associated with neuro-developmental advantages at 9 months of age on a standardised measure of infant development in a large cohort study of Irish children. It is hypothesised that if breast-milk confers an independent benefit, infants who were never breastfed will have reached fewer developmental milestones than those who were partially or exclusively breastfed, after controlling for putative confounding variables. Families with infants aged 9-months were recruited as part of a nationally representative sample for the birth cohort of the Growing Up in Ireland study (n = 11,134). Information was collected from mothers on breastfeeding practices, socio-demographic characteristics and developmental progress during a household interview. Parent-report items on development covered communication, gross motor, fine motor, problem solving and personal-social skills. Analysis of pass/fail status in each developmental domain using binary logistic regression showed a positive effect of any breastfeeding on gross motor, fine motor, problem solving and personal-social skills (but not communication) and these remained after adjustment for a range of confounding variables. There was, however, little evidence of a dose-response effect or advantage of exclusive over partial breastfeeding. A clear advantage of breastfeeding on infant development was demonstrated. However, the lack of a dose-response association on pass rates suggests that the breastfeeding effect may be confounded by other unobserved factors or that there is a critical threshold during which time the effect of breast milk may be particularly salient for bolstering brain development.

  18. The use of aquatic bioconcentration factors in ecological risk assessments: Confounding issues, laboratory v/s modeled results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandt, C.; Blanton, M.L.; Dirkes, R.

    1995-01-01

    Bioconcentration in aquatic systems is generally taken to refer to contaminant uptake through non-ingestion pathways (i.e., dermal and respiration uptake). Ecological risk assessments performed on aquatic systems often rely on published data on bioconcentration factors to calibrate models of exposure. However, many published BCFs, especially those from in situ studies, are confounded by uptake from ingestion of prey. As part of exposure assessment and risk analysis of the Columbia River's Hanford Reach, the authors tested a methodology to estimate radionuclide BCFs for several aquatic species in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. The iterative methodology solves for BCFs from known body burdens and environmental media concentrations. This paper provides BCF methodology description comparisons of BCF from literature and modeled values and how they were used in the exposure assessment and risk analysis of the Columbia River's Hanford Reach

  19. Parasitism can be a confounding factor in assessing the response of zebra mussels to water contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minguez, Laëtitia; Buronfosse, Thierry; Beisel, Jean-Nicolas; Giambérini, Laure

    2012-03-01

    Biological responses measured in aquatic organisms to monitor environmental pollution could be also affected by different biotic and abiotic factors. Among these environmental factors, parasitism has often been neglected even if infection by parasites is very frequent. In the present field investigation, the parasite infra-communities and zebra mussel biological responses were studied up- and downstream a waste water treatment plant in northeast France. In both sites, mussels were infected by ciliates and/or intracellular bacteria, but prevalence rates and infection intensities were different according to the habitat. Concerning the biological responses differences were observed related to the site quality and the infection status. Parasitism affects both systems but seemed to depend mainly on environmental conditions. The influence of parasites is not constant, but remains important to consider it as a potential confounding factor in ecotoxicological studies. This study also emphasizes the interesting use of integrative indexes to synthesize data set. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A causal examination of the effects of confounding factors on multimetric indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald R.; Grace, James B.; Schweiger, E. William; Mitchell, Brian R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

    2013-01-01

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) as a means of providing integrative measures of ecosystem condition is becoming widespread. An increasingly recognized problem for the interpretability of MMIs is controlling for the potentially confounding influences of environmental covariates. Most common approaches to handling covariates are based on simple notions of statistical control, leaving the causal implications of covariates and their adjustment unstated. In this paper, we use graphical models to examine some of the potential impacts of environmental covariates on the observed signals between human disturbance and potential response metrics. Using simulations based on various causal networks, we show how environmental covariates can both obscure and exaggerate the effects of human disturbance on individual metrics. We then examine from a causal interpretation standpoint the common practice of adjusting ecological metrics for environmental influences using only the set of sites deemed to be in reference condition. We present and examine the performance of an alternative approach to metric adjustment that uses the whole set of sites and models both environmental and human disturbance effects simultaneously. The findings from our analyses indicate that failing to model and adjust metrics can result in a systematic bias towards those metrics in which environmental covariates function to artificially strengthen the metric–disturbance relationship resulting in MMIs that do not accurately measure impacts of human disturbance. We also find that a “whole-set modeling approach” requires fewer assumptions and is more efficient with the given information than the more commonly applied “reference-set” approach.

  1. Incentive contracts with unobservable competence levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Jerome; Keiding, Hans

    2008-01-01

    about the competence of the agent to fulfill the obligations of the contract. The agent offers a choice of contracts to the principal, thereby signalling agent competence to the principal, and there is no alternative reputation mechanism to the contract for the principal's bargaining strategy. It turns...

  2. Risk of bias and confounding of observational studies of Zika virus infection: A scoping review of research protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveiz, Ludovic; Haby, Michelle M; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Pinzón-Flores, Carlos E; Elias, Vanessa; Smith, Emma; Pinart, Mariona; Broutet, Nathalie; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Van Kerkhove, Maria D

    2017-01-01

    Given the severity and impact of the current Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas, numerous countries have rushed to develop research studies to assess ZIKV and its potential health consequences. In an effort to ensure that studies are comprehensive, both internally and externally valid, and with reliable results, the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Institut Pasteur, the networks of Fiocruz, the Consortia for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (CONSISE) and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) have generated six standardized clinical and epidemiological research protocols and questionnaires to address key public health questions on ZIKV. We conducted a systematic search of ongoing study protocols related to ZIKV research. We analyzed the content of protocols of 32 cohort studies and 13 case control studies for systematic bias that could produce erroneous results. Additionally we aimed to characterize the risks of bias and confounding in observational studies related to ZIKV and to propose ways to minimize them, including the use of six newly standardized research protocols. Observational studies of ZIKV face an array of challenges, including measurement of exposure and outcomes (microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome). Potential confounders need to be measured where known and controlled for in the analysis. Selection bias due to non-random selection is a significant issue, particularly in the case-control design, and losses to follow-up is equally important for the cohort design. Observational research seeking to answer key questions on the ZIKV should consider these restrictions and take precautions to minimize bias in an effort to provide reliable and valid results. Utilization of the standardized research protocols developed by the WHO, PAHO, Institut Pasteur, and CONSISE will harmonize the key methodological aspects of each study design to minimize bias at

  3. Risk of bias and confounding of observational studies of Zika virus infection: A scoping review of research protocols.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludovic Reveiz

    Full Text Available Given the severity and impact of the current Zika virus (ZIKV outbreak in the Americas, numerous countries have rushed to develop research studies to assess ZIKV and its potential health consequences. In an effort to ensure that studies are comprehensive, both internally and externally valid, and with reliable results, the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Institut Pasteur, the networks of Fiocruz, the Consortia for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (CONSISE and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC have generated six standardized clinical and epidemiological research protocols and questionnaires to address key public health questions on ZIKV.We conducted a systematic search of ongoing study protocols related to ZIKV research. We analyzed the content of protocols of 32 cohort studies and 13 case control studies for systematic bias that could produce erroneous results. Additionally we aimed to characterize the risks of bias and confounding in observational studies related to ZIKV and to propose ways to minimize them, including the use of six newly standardized research protocols.Observational studies of ZIKV face an array of challenges, including measurement of exposure and outcomes (microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Potential confounders need to be measured where known and controlled for in the analysis. Selection bias due to non-random selection is a significant issue, particularly in the case-control design, and losses to follow-up is equally important for the cohort design.Observational research seeking to answer key questions on the ZIKV should consider these restrictions and take precautions to minimize bias in an effort to provide reliable and valid results. Utilization of the standardized research protocols developed by the WHO, PAHO, Institut Pasteur, and CONSISE will harmonize the key methodological aspects of each study design to

  4. The relationship between previous hamstring injury and the concentric isokinetic knee muscle strength of irish gaelic footballers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Ceallaigh Brian

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hamstring injury is one of the most common injuries affecting gaelic footballers, similar to other field sports. Research in other sports on whether residual hamstring weakness is present after hamstring injury is inconsistent, and no study has examined this factor in irish gaelic footballers. The aim of this study was to examine whether significant knee muscle weakness is present in male Irish gaelic footballers who have returned to full activity after hamstring injury. Methods The concentric isokinetic knee flexion and extension strength of 44 members of a university gaelic football team was assessed at 60, 180 and 300 degrees per second using a Contrex dynamometer. Results Fifteen players (34% reported a history of hamstring strain, with 68% of injuries affecting the dominant (kicking limb. The hamstrings were significantly stronger (p 0.05 using this comparison. The previously unilaterally injured hamstrings were significantly weaker (p Conclusion Hamstring muscle weakness was observed in male Irish gaelic footballers with a history of hamstring injury. This weakness is most evident when comparisons are made to multiple control populations, both within and between subjects. The increased strength of the dominant limb should be considered as a potential confounding variable in future trials. The study design does not allow interpretation of whether these changes in strength were present before or after injury.

  5. The ad-libitum alcohol 'taste test': secondary analyses of potential confounds and construct validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew; Button, Emily; Rose, Abigail K; Robinson, Eric; Christiansen, Paul; Di Lemma, Lisa; Field, Matt

    2016-03-01

    Motivation to drink alcohol can be measured in the laboratory using an ad-libitum 'taste test', in which participants rate the taste of alcoholic drinks whilst their intake is covertly monitored. Little is known about the construct validity of this paradigm. The objective of this study was to investigate variables that may compromise the validity of this paradigm and its construct validity. We re-analysed data from 12 studies from our laboratory that incorporated an ad-libitum taste test. We considered time of day and participants' awareness of the purpose of the taste test as potential confounding variables. We examined whether gender, typical alcohol consumption, subjective craving, scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and perceived pleasantness of the drinks predicted ad-libitum consumption (construct validity). We included 762 participants (462 female). Participant awareness and time of day were not related to ad-libitum alcohol consumption. Males drank significantly more alcohol than females (p alcohol consumption (p = 0.04), craving (p alcohol consumption. The construct validity of the taste test was supported by relationships between ad-libitum consumption and typical alcohol consumption, craving and pleasantness ratings of the drinks. The ad-libitum taste test is a valid method for the assessment of alcohol intake in the laboratory.

  6. Modelling cardiac signal as a confound in EEG-fMRI and its application in focal epilepsy studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liston, A. D.; Ellegaard Lund, Torben; Salek-Haddadi, A

    2006-01-01

    effects to be modelled, as effects of no interest. Our model is based on an over-complete basis set covering a linear relationship between cardiac-related MR signal and the phase of the cardiac cycle or time after pulse (TAP). This method showed that, on average, 24.6 +/- 10.9% of grey matter voxels......Cardiac noise has been shown to reduce the sensitivity of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to an experimental effect due to its confounding presence in the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal. Its effect is most severe in particular regions of the brain and a method is yet...... to take it into account in routine fMRI analysis. This paper reports the development of a general and robust technique to improve the reliability of EEG-fMRI studies to BOLD signal correlated with interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). In these studies, ECG is routinely recorded, enabling cardiac...

  7. Associations of polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and endogenous hormones with diabetes in post-menopausal women previously employed at a capacitor manufacturing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persky, Victoria; Piorkowski, Julie; Turyk, Mary; Freels, Sally; Chatterton, Robert; Dimos, John; Bradlow, H Leon; Chary, Lin Kaatz; Burse, Virlyn; Unterman, Terry; Sepkovic, Daniel; McCann, Kenneth

    2011-08-01

    There is an increasing body of literature showing associations of organochlorine exposure with risk of diabetes and insulin resistance. Some studies suggest that associations differ by gender and that diabetes risk, in turn, may be affected by endogenous steroid hormones. This report examines the relationships of serum PCBs and endogenous hormones with history of diabetes in a cohort of persons previously employed at a capacitor manufacturing plant. A total of 118 women were post-menopausal with complete data, of whom 93 were not using steroid hormones in 1996, at the time of examination, which included a survey of exposure and medical history, height, weight and collection of blood and urine for measurements of lipids, liver function, hematologic markers and endogenous hormones. This analysis examines relationships of serum polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), work exposure and endogenous hormones with self-reported history of diabetes after control for potential confounders. All PCB exposure groups were significantly related to history of diabetes, but not to insulin resistance as measured by the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in non-diabetics. Diabetes was also independently and inversely associated with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) and triiodothyronine (T3) uptake. HOMA-IR was positively associated with body mass index (BMI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) and inversely associated with sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and T3 uptake after control for PCB exposure. Possible biologic mechanisms are discussed. This study confirms previous reports relating PCB exposure to diabetes and suggests possible hormonal pathways deserving further exploration. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Detection rates of geckos in visual surveys: Turning confounding variables into useful knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardner, Bjorn; Rodda, Gordon H.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.; Savidge, Julie A.; Reed, Robert N.

    2016-01-01

    Transect surveys without some means of estimating detection probabilities generate population size indices prone to bias because survey conditions differ in time and space. Knowing what causes such bias can help guide the collection of relevant survey covariates, correct the survey data, anticipate situations where bias might be unacceptably large, and elucidate the ecology of target species. We used negative binomial regression to evaluate confounding variables for gecko (primarily Hemidactylus frenatus and Lepidodactylus lugubris) counts on 220-m-long transects surveyed at night, primarily for snakes, on 9,475 occasions. Searchers differed in gecko detection rates by up to a factor of six. The worst and best headlamps differed by a factor of at least two. Strong winds had a negative effect potentially as large as those of searchers or headlamps. More geckos were seen during wet weather conditions, but the effect size was small. Compared with a detection nadir during waxing gibbous (nearly full) moons above the horizon, we saw 28% more geckos during waning crescent moons below the horizon. A sine function suggested that we saw 24% more geckos at the end of the wet season than at the end of the dry season. Fluctuations on a longer timescale also were verified. Disturbingly, corrected data exhibited strong short-term fluctuations that covariates apparently failed to capture. Although some biases can be addressed with measured covariates, others will be difficult to eliminate as a significant source of error in longterm monitoring programs.

  9. A Bayesian method for detecting pairwise associations in compositional data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Schwager

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Compositional data consist of vectors of proportions normalized to a constant sum from a basis of unobserved counts. The sum constraint makes inference on correlations between unconstrained features challenging due to the information loss from normalization. However, such correlations are of long-standing interest in fields including ecology. We propose a novel Bayesian framework (BAnOCC: Bayesian Analysis of Compositional Covariance to estimate a sparse precision matrix through a LASSO prior. The resulting posterior, generated by MCMC sampling, allows uncertainty quantification of any function of the precision matrix, including the correlation matrix. We also use a first-order Taylor expansion to approximate the transformation from the unobserved counts to the composition in order to investigate what characteristics of the unobserved counts can make the correlations more or less difficult to infer. On simulated datasets, we show that BAnOCC infers the true network as well as previous methods while offering the advantage of posterior inference. Larger and more realistic simulated datasets further showed that BAnOCC performs well as measured by type I and type II error rates. Finally, we apply BAnOCC to a microbial ecology dataset from the Human Microbiome Project, which in addition to reproducing established ecological results revealed unique, competition-based roles for Proteobacteria in multiple distinct habitats.

  10. Metabolic equivalents of task are confounded by adiposity, which disturbs objective measurement of physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuomo T Tompuri

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Physical activity refers any bodily movements produced by skeletal muscles that expends energy. Hence the amount and the intensity of physical activity can be assessed by energy expenditure. Metabolic equivalents of task (MET are multiplies of the resting metabolism reflecting metabolic rate during exercise. The standard MET is defined as 3.5 ml/min/kg. However, the expression of energy expenditure by body weight to normalize the size differences between subjects causes analytical hazards: scaling by body weight does not have a physiological, mathematical, or physical rationale. This review demonstrates by examples that false methodology may cause paradoxical observations if physical activity would be assessed by body weight scaled values such as standard METs. While standard METs are confounded by adiposity, lean mass proportional measures of energy expenditure would enable a more truthful choice to assess physical activity. While physical activity as a behavior and cardiorespiratory fitness or adiposity as a state represents major determinants of public health, specific measurements of health determinants must be understood to enable a truthful evaluation of the interactions and their independent role as a health predictor.

  11. Comorbidity of intellectual disability confounds ascertainment of autism: implications for genetic diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyak, Andrew; Kubina, Richard M; Girirajan, Santhosh

    2015-10-01

    While recent studies suggest a converging role for genetic factors towards risk for nosologically distinct disorders including autism, intellectual disability (ID), and epilepsy, current estimates of autism prevalence fail to take into account the impact of comorbidity of these disorders on autism diagnosis. We aimed to assess the effect of comorbidity on the diagnosis and prevalence of autism by analyzing 11 years (2000-2010) of special education enrollment data on approximately 6.2 million children per year. We found a 331% increase in the prevalence of autism from 2000 to 2010 within special education, potentially due to a diagnostic recategorization from frequently comorbid features such as ID. The decrease in ID prevalence equaled an average of 64.2% of the increase of autism prevalence for children aged 3-18 years. The proportion of ID cases potentially undergoing recategorization to autism was higher (P = 0.007) among older children (75%) than younger children (48%). Some US states showed significant negative correlations between the prevalence of autism compared to that of ID while others did not, suggesting state-specific health policy to be a major factor in categorizing autism. Further, a high frequency of autistic features was observed when individuals with classically defined genetic syndromes were evaluated for autism using standardized instruments. Our results suggest that current ascertainment practices are based on a single facet of autism-specific clinical features and do not consider associated comorbidities that may confound diagnosis. Longitudinal studies with detailed phenotyping and deep molecular genetic analyses are necessary to completely understand the cause of this complex disorder. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Measurement errors in polymerase chain reaction are a confounding factor for a correct interpretation of 5-HTTLPR polymorphism effects on lifelong premature ejaculation: a critical analysis of a previously published meta-analysis of six studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paddy K C Janssen

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze a recently published meta-analysis of six studies on 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and lifelong premature ejaculation (PE. METHODS: Calculation of fraction observed and expected genotype frequencies and Hardy Weinberg equilibrium (HWE of cases and controls. LL,SL and SS genotype frequencies of patients were subtracted from genotype frequencies of an ideal population (LL25%, SL50%, SS25%, p = 1 for HWE. Analysis of PCRs of six studies and re-analysis of the analysis and Odds ratios (ORs reported in the recently published meta-analysis. RESULTS: Three studies deviated from HWE in patients and one study deviated from HWE in controls. In three studies in-HWE the mean deviation of genotype frequencies from a theoretical population not-deviating from HWE was small: LL(1.7%, SL(-2.3%, SS(0.6%. In three studies not-in-HWE the mean deviation of genotype frequencies was high: LL(-3.3%, SL(-18.5% and SS(21.8% with very low percentage SL genotype concurrent with very high percentage SS genotype. The most serious PCR deviations were reported in the three not-in-HWE studies. The three in-HWE studies had normal OR. In contrast, the three not-in-HWE studies had a low OR. CONCLUSIONS: In three studies not-in-HWE and with very low OR, inadequate PCR analysis and/or inadequate interpretation of its gel electrophoresis resulted in very low SL and a resulting shift to very high SS genotype frequency outcome. Consequently, PCRs of these three studies are not reliable. Failure to note the inadequacy of PCR tests makes such PCRs a confounding factor in clinical interpretation of genetic studies. Currently, a meta-analysis can only be performed on three studies-in-HWE. However, based on the three studies-in-HWE with OR of about 1 there is not any indication that in men with lifelong PE the frequency of LL,SL and SS genotype deviates from the general male population and/or that the SL or SS genotype is in any way associated with lifelong PE.

  13. A model for fine mapping in family based association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehringer, Stefan; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2009-01-01

    Genome wide association studies for complex diseases are typically followed by more focused characterization of the identified genetic region. We propose a latent class model to evaluate a candidate region with several measured markers using observations on families. The main goal is to estimate linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the observed markers and the putative true but unobserved disease locus in the region. Based on this model, we estimate the joint distribution of alleles at the observed markers and the unobserved true disease locus, and a penetrance parameter measuring the impact of the disease allele on disease risk. A family specific random effect allows for varying baseline disease prevalences for different families. We present a likelihood framework for our model and assess its properties in simulations. We apply the model to an Alzheimer data set and confirm previous findings in the ApoE region.

  14. Is the co-occurrence of smoking and poor consumption of fruits and vegetables confounded by socioeconomic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muff, Christine; Dragano, N; Jöckel, K-H; Moebus, S; Möhlenkamp, S; Erbel, R; Mann, K; Siegrist, J

    2010-08-01

    As smoking and unhealthy diet are more prevalent in lower socioeconomic groups, this study aims at exploring whether associations between smoking and fruit and vegetable consumption are confounded by socioeconomic conditions or if smoking is independently associated with consumption. Cross-sectional analyses of 4,814 middle-aged participants from the Heinz Nixdorf recall study, a population-based cohort study in Germany. Fruit and vegetable consumption was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Education and income were used as indicators for socioeconomic groups. Logistic regression models were run to estimate odds ratios for consumption by smoking status. Smoking is associated with poor consumption of fruits and raw vegetables/salad in both genders, and with poor consumption of boiled vegetables and fruit/vegetable juice in men. Importantly, poor consumption is related to smoking independently of people's socioeconomic conditions. The findings imply that smokers in all socioeconomic groups are at higher risk for unhealthy intake of fruits and vegetables. Public health interventions targeted to smokers should include dietary instructions.

  15. μ+ relaxation correlated with susceptibility in the van-Vleck paramagnet PrIn3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grayevsky, A.; Amato, A.; Pinkpank, M.; Schenck, A.

    1997-01-01

    A previously unobserved increase of the magnetic susceptibility in PrIn 3 at low temperatures is reported. The increase is shown to correlate nicely with a large increase in the transverse μSR depolarization rate. Evidence supports the conclusion that both phenomena are related to some degree of atomic disorder in the structure, and an associated strong Pr CEF level changes. (orig.)

  16. Backward exotic meson production in π-n→px--

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mantell, D.

    1978-01-01

    A discussion is given of some of the theory and theoretical techniques as well as actual previous experiments for the study of π - + n → p + X -- interactions. Included are the forces, classification, inclusive reactions, quark diagrams, properties of the unobserved X, cross sections, exotic mesons, duality and crossing, the working and normalization of some actual rexperiments, and analysis. 10 references

  17. How does relativity affect magnetically induced currents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, R J F; Repisky, M; Komorovsky, S

    2015-09-21

    Magnetically induced probability currents in molecules are studied in relativistic theory. Spin-orbit coupling (SOC) enhances the curvature and gives rise to a previously unobserved current cusp in AuH or small bulge-like distortions in HgH2 at the proton positions. The origin of this curvature is magnetically induced spin-density arising from SOC in the relativistic description.

  18. Using Length of Stay to Control for Unobserved Heterogeneity When Estimating Treatment Effect on Hospital Costs with Observational Data: Issues of Reliability, Robustness, and Usefulness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Peter; Garrido, Melissa M; Cassel, J Brian; Morrison, R Sean; Normand, Charles

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the sensitivity of treatment effect estimates when length of stay (LOS) is used to control for unobserved heterogeneity when estimating treatment effect on cost of hospital admission with observational data. We used data from a prospective cohort study on the impact of palliative care consultation teams (PCCTs) on direct cost of hospital care. Adult patients with an advanced cancer diagnosis admitted to five large medical and cancer centers in the United States between 2007 and 2011 were eligible for this study. Costs were modeled using generalized linear models with a gamma distribution and a log link. We compared variability in estimates of PCCT impact on hospitalization costs when LOS was used as a covariate, as a sample parameter, and as an outcome denominator. We used propensity scores to account for patient characteristics associated with both PCCT use and total direct hospitalization costs. We analyzed data from hospital cost databases, medical records, and questionnaires. Our propensity score weighted sample included 969 patients who were discharged alive. In analyses of hospitalization costs, treatment effect estimates are highly sensitive to methods that control for LOS, complicating interpretation. Both the magnitude and significance of results varied widely with the method of controlling for LOS. When we incorporated intervention timing into our analyses, results were robust to LOS-controls. Treatment effect estimates using LOS-controls are not only suboptimal in terms of reliability (given concerns over endogeneity and bias) and usefulness (given the need to validate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention using overall resource use for a sample defined at baseline) but also in terms of robustness (results depend on the approach taken, and there is little evidence to guide this choice). To derive results that minimize endogeneity concerns and maximize external validity, investigators should match and analyze treatment and comparison arms

  19. Accounting for Time-Varying Confounding in the Relationship Between Obesity and Coronary Heart Disease: Analysis With G-Estimation: The ARIC Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakiba, Maryam; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Salari, Arsalan; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Nasrin; Kaufman, Jay S

    2018-06-01

    In longitudinal studies, standard analysis may yield biased estimates of exposure effect in the presence of time-varying confounders that are also intermediate variables. We aimed to quantify the relationship between obesity and coronary heart disease (CHD) by appropriately adjusting for time-varying confounders. This study was performed in a subset of participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (1987-2010), a US study designed to investigate risk factors for atherosclerosis. General obesity was defined as body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2) ≥30, and abdominal obesity (AOB) was defined according to either waist circumference (≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women) or waist:hip ratio (≥0.9 in men and ≥0.85 in women). The association of obesity with CHD was estimated by G-estimation and compared with results from accelerated failure-time models using 3 specifications. The first model, which adjusted for baseline covariates, excluding metabolic mediators of obesity, showed increased risk of CHD for all obesity measures. Further adjustment for metabolic mediators in the second model and time-varying variables in the third model produced negligible changes in the hazard ratios. The hazard ratios estimated by G-estimation were 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.47) for general obesity, 1.65 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.92) for AOB based on waist circumference, and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.99) for AOB based on waist:hip ratio, suggesting that AOB increased the risk of CHD. The G-estimated hazard ratios for both measures were further from the null than those derived from standard models.

  20. Accounting for genetic and environmental confounds in associations between parent and child characteristics: a systematic review of children-of-twins studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdams, Tom A; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Rijsdijk, Fruhling V; Narusyte, Jurgita; Lichtenstein, Paul; Eley, Thalia C

    2014-07-01

    Parental psychopathology, parenting style, and the quality of intrafamilial relationships are all associated with child mental health outcomes. However, most research can say little about the causal pathways underlying these associations. This is because most studies are not genetically informative and are therefore not able to account for the possibility that associations are confounded by gene-environment correlation. That is, biological parents not only provide a rearing environment for their child, but also contribute 50% of their genes. Any associations between parental phenotype and child phenotype are therefore potentially confounded. One technique for disentangling genetic from environmental effects is the children-of-twins (COT) method. This involves using data sets comprising twin parents and their children to distinguish genetic from environmental associations between parent and child phenotypes. The COT technique has grown in popularity in the last decade, and we predict that this surge in popularity will continue. In the present article we explain the COT method for those unfamiliar with its use. We present the logic underlying this approach, discuss strengths and weaknesses, and highlight important methodological considerations for researchers interested in the COT method. We also cover variations on basic COT approaches, including the extended-COT method, capable of distinguishing forms of gene-environment correlation. We then present a systematic review of all the behavioral COT studies published to date. These studies cover such diverse phenotypes as psychosis, substance abuse, internalizing, externalizing, parenting, and marital difficulties. In reviewing this literature, we highlight past applications, identify emergent patterns, and suggest avenues for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Smokers' increased risk for disability pension: social confounding or health-mediated effects? Gender-specific analyses of the Hordaland Health Study cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukenes, Inger; Riise, Trond; Haug, Kjell; Farbu, Erlend; Maeland, John Gunnar

    2013-09-01

    Studies indicate that cigarette smokers have an increased risk for disability pension, presumably mediated by adverse health effects. However, smoking is also related to socioeconomic status. The current study examined the association between smoking and subsequent disability pension, and whether the association is explained by social confounding and/or health-related mediation. A subsample of 7934 men and 8488 women, aged 40-46, from the Hordaland Health Study, Norway (1997-1999), provided baseline information on smoking status, self-reported health measures and socioeconomic status. Outcome was register-based disability pension from 12 months after baseline to end of 2004. Gender stratified Cox regression analyses were used adjusted for socioeconomic status, physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain sites. A total of 155 (2%) men and 333 (3.9%) women were granted disability pension during follow-up. The unadjusted disability risk associated with heavy smoking versus non-smoking was 1.88 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.89) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.23 to 4.20) among women. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for socioeconomic status, HRs were 1.33 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.11) among men and 2.22 (95% CI 1.58 to 3.13) among women. Final adjustment for physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain further reduced the effect of heavy smoking in women (HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.16). Socioeconomic status confounded the smoking-related risk for disability pension; for female heavy smokers, however, a significant increased risk persisted after adjustment. Women may be particularly vulnerable to heavy smoking and to its sociomedical consequences, such as disability pension.

  2. Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

    2016-05-01

    Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

  3. 49 CFR 173.23 - Previously authorized packaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Previously authorized packaging. 173.23 Section... REQUIREMENTS FOR SHIPMENTS AND PACKAGINGS Preparation of Hazardous Materials for Transportation § 173.23 Previously authorized packaging. (a) When the regulations specify a packaging with a specification marking...

  4. It pays to be green. A premature conclusion?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telle, K.

    2006-01-01

    It has been claimed that good environmental performance can improve firms' economic performance. However, because of e.g. data limitations, the methods applied in most previous quantitative empirical studies on effects of environmental performance on economic performance of firms suffer from several shortcomings. We discuss these shortcomings and conclude that previously applied methods are unsatisfactory as support for a conclusion that it pays for firms to be green. Then we illustrate the consequences of these shortcomings by performing several regression analyses of the effect of environmental performance on economic performance using a panel data set of Norwegian plants. A pooled regression where observable firm characteristics like e.g. size or industry are controlled for, confirms a positive effect of environmental performance on economic performance. However, the estimated positive effect could be due to omitted unobserved variables like management or technology. When the regression model controls for unobserved plant heterogeneity, the effect is generally no longer statistically significant. Hence, although greener plants tend to perform economically better, the analysis provides little support for the claim that it is because they are greener. These empirical findings further indicate that a conclusion that it pays to be green is premature

  5. 22 CFR 40.91 - Certain aliens previously removed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Certain aliens previously removed. 40.91... IMMIGRANTS UNDER THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT, AS AMENDED Aliens Previously Removed § 40.91 Certain aliens previously removed. (a) 5-year bar. An alien who has been found inadmissible, whether as a result...

  6. Changes in nonhuman primate brain function following chronic alcohol consumption in previously naïve animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, Jared A; Stapleton-Kotloski, Jennifer R; Alberto, Greg E; Davenport, April T; Kotloski, Robert J; Friedman, David P; Godwin, Dwayne W; Daunais, James B

    2017-08-01

    Chronic alcohol abuse is associated with neurophysiological changes in brain activity; however, these changes are not well localized in humans. Non-human primate models of alcohol abuse enable control over many potential confounding variables associated with human studies. The present study utilized high-resolution magnetoencephalography (MEG) to quantify the effects of chronic EtOH self-administration on resting state (RS) brain function in vervet monkeys. Adolescent male vervet monkeys were trained to self-administer ethanol (n=7) or an isocaloric malto-dextrin solution (n=3). Following training, animals received 12 months of free access to ethanol. Animals then underwent RS magnetoencephalography (MEG) and subsequent power spectral analysis of brain activity at 32 bilateral regions of interest associated with the chronic effects of alcohol use. demonstrate localized changes in brain activity in chronic heavy drinkers, including reduced power in the anterior cingulate cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala as well as increased power in the right medial orbital and parietal areas. The current study is the first demonstration of whole-head MEG acquisition in vervet monkeys. Changes in brain activity were consistent with human electroencephalographic studies; however, MEG was able to extend these findings by localizing the observed changes in power to specific brain regions. These regions are consistent with those previously found to exhibit volume loss following chronic heavy alcohol use. The ability to use MEG to evaluate changes in brain activity following chronic ethanol exposure provides a potentially powerful tool to better understand both the acute and chronic effects of alcohol on brain function. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Distance to High-Voltage Power Lines and Risk of Childhood Leukemia – an Analysis of Confounding by and Interaction with Other Potential Risk Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Camilla; Bräuner, Elvira V; Rod, Naja Hulvej

    2014-01-01

    . We used geographical information systems to determine the distance between residence at birth and the nearest 132-400 kV overhead power line. Concentrations of domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution (NOx at the front door) were estimated using validated models. We found a statistically......We investigated whether there is an interaction between distance from residence at birth to nearest power line and domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution, respectively, in relation to childhood leukemia risk. Further, we investigated whether adjusting for potential confounders alters...

  8. Direct and indirect effects of unilateral divorce law on marital stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneip, Thorsten; Bauer, Gerrit; Reinhold, Steffen

    2014-12-01

    Previous research examining the impact of unilateral divorce law (UDL) on the prevalence of divorce has provided mixed results. Studies based on cross-sectional cross-country/cross-state survey data have received criticism for disregarding unobserved heterogeneity across countries, as have studies using country-level panel data for failing to account for possible mediating mechanisms at the micro level. We seek to overcome both shortcomings by using individual-level event-history data from 11 European countries (SHARELIFE) and controlling for unobserved heterogeneity over countries and cohorts. We find that UDL in total increased the incidence of marital breakdown by about 20 %. This finding, however, neglects potential selection effects into marriage. Accordingly, the estimated effect of unilateral divorce laws becomes much larger when we control for age at marriage, which is used as indicator for match quality. Moreover, we find that UDL particularly affects marital stability in the presence of children.

  9. Risk aversion and religious behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Bech, Mickael; Christensen, Kaare

    2017-01-01

    would expect that risk averse individuals would demand a more generous protection plan which they may do by devoting more effort and resources into religious activities such as church attendance and prayer, which seems to be in accordance with previous empirical results. However, a general concern...... and prayer frequency on the other controlling for unobservable variables using survey data of Danish same-sex twin pairs. We verify the correlation between risk preferences and religion found previously by carrying out cross-sectional analyses. We also show that the association between risk attitudes...

  10. Effect of water quality and confounding factors on digestive enzyme activities in Gammarus fossarum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charron, L; Geffard, O; Chaumot, A; Coulaud, R; Queau, H; Geffard, A; Dedourge-Geffard, O

    2013-12-01

    The feeding activity and subsequent assimilation of the products resulting from food digestion allow organisms to obtain energy for growth, maintenance and reproduction. Among these biological parameters, we studied digestive enzymes (amylase, cellulase and trypsin) in Gammarus fossarum to assess the impact of contaminants on their access to energy resources. However, to enable objective assessment of a toxic effect of decreased water quality on an organisms' digestive capacity, it is necessary to establish reference values based on its natural variability as a function of changing biotic and abiotic factors. To limit the confounding influence of biotic factors, a caging approach with calibrated male organisms from the same population was used. This study applied an in situ deployment at 23 sites of the Rhone basin rivers, complemented by a laboratory experiment assessing the influence of two abiotic factors (temperature and conductivity). The results showed a small effect of conductivity on cellulase activity and a significant effect of temperature on digestive enzyme activity but only at the lowest temperature (7 °C). The experimental conditions allowed us to define an environmental reference value for digestive enzyme activities to select sites where the quality of the water impacted the digestive capacity of the organisms. In addition to the feeding rate, this study showed the relevance of digestive enzymes as biomarkers to be used as an early warning tool to reflect organisms' health and the chemical quality of aquatic ecosystems.

  11. Pattern classification of brain activation during emotional processing in subclinical depression: psychosis proneness as potential confounding factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modinos, Gemma; Mechelli, Andrea; Pettersson-Yeo, William; Allen, Paul; McGuire, Philip; Aleman, Andre

    2013-01-01

    We used Support Vector Machine (SVM) to perform multivariate pattern classification based on brain activation during emotional processing in healthy participants with subclinical depressive symptoms. Six-hundred undergraduate students completed the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II). Two groups were subsequently formed: (i) subclinical (mild) mood disturbance (n = 17) and (ii) no mood disturbance (n = 17). Participants also completed a self-report questionnaire on subclinical psychotic symptoms, the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences Questionnaire (CAPE) positive subscale. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm entailed passive viewing of negative emotional and neutral scenes. The pattern of brain activity during emotional processing allowed correct group classification with an overall accuracy of 77% (p = 0.002), within a network of regions including the amygdala, insula, anterior cingulate cortex and medial prefrontal cortex. However, further analysis suggested that the classification accuracy could also be explained by subclinical psychotic symptom scores (correlation with SVM weights r = 0.459, p = 0.006). Psychosis proneness may thus be a confounding factor for neuroimaging studies in subclinical depression.

  12. Cryptic confounding compounds: A brief consideration of the influences of anthropogenic contaminants on courtship and mating behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blocker, Tomica D.; Ophir, Alexander G.

    2012-01-01

    Contaminants, like pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and metals, are persistent and ubiquitous and are known to threaten the environment. Traditionally, scientists have considered the direct physiological risks that these contaminants pose. However, scientists have just begun to integrate ethology and toxicology to investigate the effects that contaminants have on behavior. This review considers the potential for contaminant effects on mating behavior. Here we assess the growing body of research concerning disruptions in sexual differentiation, courtship, sexual receptivity, arousal, and mating. We discuss the implications of these disruptions on conservation efforts and highlight the importance of recognizing the potential for environmental stressors to affect behavioral experimentation. More specifically, we consider the negative implications for anthropogenic contaminants to affect the immediate behavior of animals, and their potential to have cascading and/or long-term effects on the behavioral ecology and evolution of populations. Overall, we aim to raise awareness of the confounding influence that contaminants can have, and promote caution when interpreting results where the potential for cryptic affects are possible. PMID:24244068

  13. Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) in Parkinson's Disease: Potential as Trait-, Progression- and Prediction Marker and Confounding Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Gerhard; Weber, Karin; Apel, Anja; Roeben, Benjamin; Deuschle, Christian; Maechtel, Mirjam; Heger, Tanja; Nussbaum, Susanne; Gasser, Thomas; Maetzler, Walter; Berg, Daniela

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Biomarkers indicating trait, progression and prediction of pathology and symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) often lack specificity or reliability. Investigating biomarker variance between individuals and over time and the effect of confounding factors is essential for the evaluation of biomarkers in PD, such as insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1). Materials and Methods IGF-1 serum levels were investigated in up to 8 biannual visits in 37 PD patients and 22 healthy controls (HC) in the longitudinal MODEP study. IGF-1 baseline levels and annual changes in IGF-1 were compared between PD patients and HC while accounting for baseline disease duration (19 early stage: ≤3.5 years; 18 moderate stage: >4 years), age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and common medical factors putatively modulating IGF-1. In addition, associations of baseline IGF-1 with annual changes of motor, cognitive and depressive symptoms and medication dose were investigated. Results PD patients in moderate (130±26 ng/mL; p = .004), but not early stages (115±19, p>.1), showed significantly increased baseline IGF-1 levels compared with HC (106±24 ng/mL; p = .017). Age had a significant negative correlation with IGF-1 levels in HC (r = -.47, p = .028) and no correlation in PD patients (r = -.06, p>.1). BMI was negatively correlated in the overall group (r = -.28, p = .034). The annual changes in IGF-1 did not differ significantly between groups and were not correlated with disease duration. Baseline IGF-1 levels were not associated with annual changes of clinical parameters. Discussion Elevated IGF-1 in serum might differentiate between patients in moderate PD stages and HC. However, the value of serum IGF-1 as a trait-, progression- and prediction marker in PD is limited as IGF-1 showed large inter- and intraindividual variability and may be modulated by several confounders. PMID:26967642

  14. A two-stage model in a Bayesian framework to estimate a survival endpoint in the presence of confounding by indication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellera, Carine; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Joseph, Lawrence; Richaud, Pierre; Taylor, Jeremy; Sandler, Howard; Hanley, James; Mathoulin-Pélissier, Simone

    2018-04-01

    Background Biomarker series can indicate disease progression and predict clinical endpoints. When a treatment is prescribed depending on the biomarker, confounding by indication might be introduced if the treatment modifies the marker profile and risk of failure. Objective Our aim was to highlight the flexibility of a two-stage model fitted within a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework. For this purpose, we monitored the prostate-specific antigens in prostate cancer patients treated with external beam radiation therapy. In the presence of rising prostate-specific antigens after external beam radiation therapy, salvage hormone therapy can be prescribed to reduce both the prostate-specific antigens concentration and the risk of clinical failure, an illustration of confounding by indication. We focused on the assessment of the prognostic value of hormone therapy and prostate-specific antigens trajectory on the risk of failure. Methods We used a two-stage model within a Bayesian framework to assess the role of the prostate-specific antigens profile on clinical failure while accounting for a secondary treatment prescribed by indication. We modeled prostate-specific antigens using a hierarchical piecewise linear trajectory with a random changepoint. Residual prostate-specific antigens variability was expressed as a function of prostate-specific antigens concentration. Covariates in the survival model included hormone therapy, baseline characteristics, and individual predictions of the prostate-specific antigens nadir and timing and prostate-specific antigens slopes before and after the nadir as provided by the longitudinal process. Results We showed positive associations between an increased prostate-specific antigens nadir, an earlier changepoint and a steeper post-nadir slope with an increased risk of failure. Importantly, we highlighted a significant benefit of hormone therapy, an effect that was not observed when the prostate-specific antigens trajectory was

  15. Surgery confounds biology: the predictive value of stage-, grade- and prostate-specific antigen for recurrence after radical prostatectomy as a function of surgeon experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Andrew J; Savage, Caroline J; Bianco, Fernando J; Klein, Eric A; Kattan, Michael W; Secin, Fernando P; Guilloneau, Bertrand D; Scardino, Peter T

    2011-04-01

    Statistical models predicting cancer recurrence after surgery are based on biologic variables. We have shown previously that prostate cancer recurrence is related to both tumor biology and to surgical technique. Here, we evaluate the association between several biological predictors and biochemical recurrence across varying surgical experience. The study included two separate cohorts: 6,091 patients treated by open radical prostatectomy and an independent replication set of 2,298 patients treated laparoscopically. We calculated the odds ratios for biological predictors of biochemical recurrence-stage, Gleason grade and prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-and also the predictive accuracy (area under the curve, AUC) of a multivariable model, for subgroups of patients defined by the experience of their surgeon. In the open cohort, the odds ratio for Gleason score 8+ and advanced pathologic stage, though not PSA or Gleason score 7, increased dramatically when patients treated by surgeons with lower levels of experience were excluded (Gleason 8+: odds ratios 5.6 overall vs. 13.0 for patients treated by surgeons with 1,000+ prior cases; locally advanced disease: odds ratios of 6.6 vs. 12.2, respectively). The AUC of the multivariable model was 0.750 for patients treated by surgeons with 50 or fewer cases compared to 0.849 for patients treated by surgeons with 500 or more. Although predictiveness was lower overall for the independent replication set cohort, the main findings were replicated. Surgery confounds biology. Although our findings have no direct clinical implications, studies investigating biological variables as predictors of outcome after curative resection of cancer should consider the impact of surgeon-specific factors. Copyright © 2010 UICC.

  16. Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-11-01

    The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Do digestive contents confound body mass as a measure of relative condition in nestling songbirds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streby, Henry M.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Vernasco, Ben J.; Andersen, David E.

    2014-01-01

    Relative nestling condition, typically measured as nestling mass or as an index including nestling mass, is commonly purported to correlate with fledgling songbird survival. However, most studies directly investigating fledgling survival have found no such relationship. We weighed feces and stomach contents of nestling golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) to investigate the potential contribution of variation in digestive contents to differences in nestling mass. We estimated that the mass of a seventh-day (near fledging) nestling golden-winged warbler varies by 0.65 g (approx. 9% of mean nestling mass) depending on the contents of the nestling's digestive system at the time of weighing, and that digestive contents are dissimilar among nestlings at any moment the brood is removed from the nest for weighing. Our conservative estimate of within-individual variation in digestive contents equals 72% and 24% of the mean within-brood and population-wide range in nestling mass, respectively. Based on our results, a substantive but typically unknown amount of the variation in body mass among nestlings is confounded by differences in digestive contents. We conclude that short-term variation in digestive contents likely precludes the use of body mass, and therefore any mass-dependent index, as a measure of relative nestling condition or as a predictor of survival in golden-winged warblers and likely in many other songbirds of similar size.

  18. Grandparenting and mothers' labour force participation: A comparative analysis using the Generations and Gender Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnstein Aassve

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND It is well known that the provision of public childcare plays an important role for women labour force participation and its availability varies tremendously across countries. In many countries, informal childcare is also important and typically provided by the grandparents, but its role on mothers' employment is not yet well understood. Understanding the relationship between labour supply decisions and grandparental childcare is complex. While the provision of grandparental childcare is clearly a function of the social and institutional context of a country, it also depends on family preferences, which are typically unobserved in surveys. OBJECTIVE We analyze the role of informal childcare provided by grandparents on mothers' labour force participation keeping unobserved preferences into account. METHODS Bivariate probit models with instrumental variables are estimated on data from seven countries (Bulgaria, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Russia and The Netherlands drawn from the Generations and Gender Survey. RESULTS We find that only in some countries mothers' employment is positively and significantly associated with grandparents providing childcare. In other countries, once we control for unobserved preferences, we do not find this effect. CONCLUSIONS The role of grandparents is an important element to reconcile work and family for women in some countries. Our results show the importance of considering family preferences and country differences when studying the relationship between grandparental childcare and mothers' labour supply. COMMENTS Our results are consistent with previous research on this topic. However, differently from previous studies, we conduct separate analyses by country and show that the effect of grandparental childcare varies considerably. The fact that we also include in the analyses Bulgaria, Hungary, Russia and Georgia is an important novelty as there are no studies on this issue

  19. Impact of previously disadvantaged land-users on sustainable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact of previously disadvantaged land-users on sustainable agricultural ... about previously disadvantaged land users involved in communal farming systems ... of input, capital, marketing, information and land use planning, with effect on ...

  20. Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Lowe, Rachel

    2013-01-01

    We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region. PMID:23478584

  1. Lumbar disc degeneration was not related to spine and hip bone mineral densities in Chinese: facet joint osteoarthritis may confound the association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Jianjiang; Lu, Xuan; Yang, Ge; Han, Yongmei; Tong, Xiang; Wang, Yue

    2017-12-01

    A sample of 512 Chinese was studied and we observed that greater disc degeneration on MRI was associated with greater spine DXA BMD. Yet, this association may be confounded by facet joint osteoarthritis. BMD may not be a risk factor for lumbar disc degeneration in Chinese. Evidence suggested that lumbar vertebral bone and intervertebral disc interact with each other in multiple ways. The current paper aims to determine the association between bone mineral density (BMD) and lumbar disc degeneration using a sample of Chinese. We studied 165 patients with back disorders and 347 general subjects from China. All subjects had lumbar spine magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and dual- energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) spine BMD studies, and a subset of general subjects had additional hip BMD measurements. On T2-weighted MR images, Pfirrmann score was used to evaluate the degree of lumbar disc degeneration and facet joint osteoarthritis was assessed as none, slight-moderate, and severe. Regression analyses were used to examine the associations between lumbar and hip BMD and disc degeneration, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index (BMI), lumbar region, and facet joint osteoarthritis. Greater facet joint osteoarthritis was associated with greater spine BMD (P osteoarthritis entered the regression model, however, greater spine BMD was associated with greater facet joint osteoarthritis (P  0.05). No statistical association was observed between spine BMD and lumbar disc degeneration in patients with back disorders (P > 0.05), and between hip BMD and disc degeneration in general subjects (P > 0.05). BMD may not be a risk factor for lumbar disc degeneration in Chinese. Facet joint osteoarthritis inflates DXA spine BMD measurements and therefore, may confound the association between spine BMD and disc degeneration.

  2. Evaluation of Transition Untestable Faults Using a Multi-Cycle Capture Test Generation Method

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshimura, Masayoshi; Ogawa, Hiroshi; Hosokawa, Toshinori; Yamazaki, Koji

    2010-01-01

    Overtesting induces unnecessary yield loss. Untestable faults have no effect on normal functions of circuits. However, in scan testing, untestable faults may be detected through scan chains. Detected untestable faults cause overtesting. Untestable faults consist of uncontrollable faults, unobservable faults, and uncontrollable and unobservable faults. Uncontrollable faults may be detected under invalid states through scan chains by shift-in operations. Unobservable faults cannot be observed ...

  3. Determining root correspondence between previously and newly detected objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, N Reginald

    2014-06-17

    A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

  4. Do nonphysical punishments reduce antisocial behavior more than spanking? a comparison using the strongest previous causal evidence against spanking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Ronald B

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The strongest causal evidence that customary spanking increases antisocial behavior is based on prospective studies that control statistically for initial antisocial differences. None of those studies have investigated alternative disciplinary tactics that parents could use instead of spanking, however. Further, the small effects in those studies could be artifactual due to residual confounding, reflecting child effects on the frequency of all disciplinary tactics. This study re-analyzes the strongest causal evidence against customary spanking and uses these same methods to determine whether alternative disciplinary tactics are more effective in reducing antisocial behavior. Methods This study re-analyzed a study by Straus et al.1 on spanking and antisocial behavior using a sample of 785 children who were 6 to 9 years old in the 1988 cohort of the American National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The comprehensiveness and reliability of the covariate measure of initial antisocial behavior were varied to test for residual confounding. All analyses were repeated for grounding, privilege removal, and sending children to their room, and for psychotherapy. To account for covarying use of disciplinary tactics, the analyses were redone first for the 73% who had reported using at least one discipline tactic and second by controlling for usage of other disciplinary tactics and psychotherapy. Results The apparently adverse effect of spanking on antisocial behavior was replicated using the original trichotomous covariate for initial antisocial behavior. A similar pattern of adverse effects was shown for grounding and psychotherapy and partially for the other two disciplinary tactics. All of these effects became non-significant after controlling for latent comprehensive measures of externalizing behavior problems. Conclusions These results are consistent with residual confounding, a statistical artifact that makes all corrective actions by

  5. Incomplete Ionization of a 110 meV Unintentional Donor in Beta-Ga2O3 and its Effect on Power Devices (Postprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-16

    Adam T. Neal Universal Technology Corporation Shin Mou AFRL/RX Roberto Lopez and Jian V. Li Texas State University Darren B...ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 1) Universal Technology Corp. 1270 N Fairfield Rd. Dayton, OH 45432 2) AFRL/RX...unintentional doping in Ga2O3. Previously unobserved unintentional donors in commercially available (2 ̅01) Ga2O3 substrates have been electrically

  6. Globalization and formal sector migration in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Aguayo-Tellez, Ernesto; Muendler, Marc-Andreas; Poole, Jennifer Pamela

    2008-01-01

    We use novel linked employer–employee data to study the relationship between globalization and formal sector interstate migration for Brazil. We estimate the worker’s multichoice migration problem and document that previously unobserved employer covariates are significant predictors associated with migration flows. Our results provide support for the idea that globalization acts on internal migration through the growth of employment opportunities at locations with a high concentration of fore...

  7. Activity participation and cognitive aging from age 50 to 80 in the glostrup 1914 cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gow, Alan J; Mortensen, Erik L; Avlund, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    To examine the cognitively protective effect of leisure and physical activities while accounting for prior cognitive ability, a rarely considered confounder of the previously reported associations between activity and cognitive aging.......To examine the cognitively protective effect of leisure and physical activities while accounting for prior cognitive ability, a rarely considered confounder of the previously reported associations between activity and cognitive aging....

  8. Trial of labour and vaginal birth after previous caesarean section: A population based study of Eastern African immigrants in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belihu, Fetene B; Small, Rhonda; Davey, Mary-Ann

    2017-03-01

    Variations in caesarean section (CS) between some immigrant groups and receiving country populations have been widely reported. Often, African immigrant women are at higher risk of CS than the receiving population in developed countries. However, evidence about subsequent mode of birth following CS for African women post-migration is lacking. The objective of this study was to examine differences in attempted and successful vaginal birth after previous caesarean (VBAC) for Eastern African immigrants (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan) compared with Australian-born women. A population-based observational study was conducted using the Victorian Perinatal Data Collection. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were performed to generate adjusted odds ratios for attempted and successful VBAC. Victoria, Australia. 554 Eastern African immigrants and 24,587 Australian-born eligible women with previous CS having singleton births in public care. 41.5% of Eastern African immigrant women and 26.1% Australian-born women attempted a VBAC with 50.9% of Eastern African immigrants and 60.5% of Australian-born women being successful. After adjusting for maternal demographic characteristics and available clinical confounding factors, Eastern African immigrants were more likely to attempt (OR adj 1.94, 95% CI 1.57-2.47) but less likely to succeed (OR adj 0.54 95% CI 0.41-0.71) in having a VBAC. There are disparities in attempted and successful VBAC between Eastern African origin and Australian-born women. Unsuccessful VBAC attempt is more common among Eastern African immigrants, suggesting the need for improved strategies to select and support potential candidates for vaginal birth among these immigrants to enhance success and reduce potential complications associated with failed VBAC attempt. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The associations between serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor, potential confounders, and cognitive decline: a longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine Nettiksimmons

    Full Text Available Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF plays a role in the maintenance and function of neurons. Although persons with Alzheimer's disease have lower cortical levels of BDNF, evidence regarding the association between circulating BDNF and cognitive function is conflicting. We sought to determine the correlates of BDNF level and whether BDNF level was prospectively associated with cognitive decline in healthy older adults. We measured serum BDNF near baseline in 912 individuals. Cognitive status was assessed repeatedly with the modified Mini-Mental Status Examination and the Digit Symbol Substitution test over the next 10 years. We evaluated the association between BDNF and cognitive decline with longitudinal models. We also assessed the association between BDNF level and demographics, comorbidities and health behaviors. We found an association between serum BDNF and several characteristics that are also associated with dementia (race and depression, suggesting that future studies should control for these potential confounders. We did not find evidence of a longitudinal association between serum BDNF and subsequent cognitive test trajectories in older adults, although we did identify a potential trend toward a cross-sectional association. Our results suggest that serum BDNF may have limited utility as a biomarker of prospective cognitive decline.

  10. Marriage duration and divorce: the seven-year itch or a lifelong itch?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulu, Hill

    2014-06-01

    Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a "seven-year itch," while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.

  11. Erlotinib-induced rash spares previously irradiated skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lips, Irene M.; Vonk, Ernest J.A.; Koster, Mariska E.Y.; Houwing, Ronald H.

    2011-01-01

    Erlotinib is an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor prescribed to patients with locally advanced or metastasized non-small cell lung carcinoma after failure of at least one earlier chemotherapy treatment. Approximately 75% of the patients treated with erlotinib develop acneiform skin rashes. A patient treated with erlotinib 3 months after finishing concomitant treatment with chemotherapy and radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer is presented. Unexpectedly, the part of the skin that had been included in his previously radiotherapy field was completely spared from the erlotinib-induced acneiform skin rash. The exact mechanism of erlotinib-induced rash sparing in previously irradiated skin is unclear. The underlying mechanism of this phenomenon needs to be explored further, because the number of patients being treated with a combination of both therapeutic modalities is increasing. The therapeutic effect of erlotinib in the area of the previously irradiated lesion should be assessed. (orig.)

  12. Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational tr...... account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.......This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational...... transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which...

  13. Pattern classification of brain activation during emotional processing in subclinical depression: psychosis proneness as potential confounding factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemma Modinos

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We used Support Vector Machine (SVM to perform multivariate pattern classification based on brain activation during emotional processing in healthy participants with subclinical depressive symptoms. Six-hundred undergraduate students completed the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II. Two groups were subsequently formed: (i subclinical (mild mood disturbance (n = 17 and (ii no mood disturbance (n = 17. Participants also completed a self-report questionnaire on subclinical psychotic symptoms, the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences Questionnaire (CAPE positive subscale. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI paradigm entailed passive viewing of negative emotional and neutral scenes. The pattern of brain activity during emotional processing allowed correct group classification with an overall accuracy of 77% (p = 0.002, within a network of regions including the amygdala, insula, anterior cingulate cortex and medial prefrontal cortex. However, further analysis suggested that the classification accuracy could also be explained by subclinical psychotic symptom scores (correlation with SVM weights r = 0.459, p = 0.006. Psychosis proneness may thus be a confounding factor for neuroimaging studies in subclinical depression.

  14. Pseudo-topotactic conversion of carbon nanotubes to T-carbon nanowires under picosecond laser irradiation in methanol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinying; Wang, Rui; Zhu, Xi; Pan, Aifei; Han, Chenxiao; Li, Xin; Dan Zhao; Ma, Chuansheng; Wang, Wenjun; Su, Haibin; Niu, Chunming

    2017-09-25

    Pseudo-topotactic conversion of carbon nanotubes into one-dimensional carbon nanowires is a challenging but feasible path to obtain desired diameters and morphologies. Here, a previously predicted but experimentally unobserved carbon allotrope, T-carbon, has been produced from pseudo-topotactic conversion of a multi-walled carbon nanotube suspension in methanol by picosecond pulsed-laser irradiation. The as-grown T-carbon nanowires have the same diameter distribution as pristine carbon nanotubes, and have been characterized by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, fast Fourier transform, electron energy loss, ultraviolet-visible, and photoluminescence spectroscopies to possess a diamond-like lattice, where each carbon is replaced by a carbon tetrahedron, and a lattice constant of 7.80 Å. The change in entropy from carbon nanotubes to T-carbon reveals the phase transformation to be first order in nature. The computed electronic band structures and projected density of states are in good agreement with the optical absorption and photoluminescence spectra of the T-carbon nanowires.T-carbon is a previously predicted but so far unobserved allotrope of carbon, with a crystal structure similar to diamond, but with each atomic lattice position replaced by a carbon tetrahedron. Here, the authors produce T-carbon nanowires via laser-irradiating a suspension of carbon nanotubes in methanol.

  15. Prophages and growth dynamics confound experimental results with antibiotic-tolerant persister cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harms, Alexander; Fino, Cinzia; Sørensen, Michael Askvad

    2017-01-01

    the validity of our model of persister formation in a refined assay setup that uses robust culture conditions and unravels the dynamics of persister cells through all bacterial growth stages. Our results confirm the importance of (p)ppGpp and Lon but no longer support a role of TA modules in E. coli persister......) modules. This model found considerable support among researchers studying persisters but also generated controversy as part of recent debates in the field. In this study, we therefore used our previous work as a model to critically examine common experimental procedures to understand and overcome......-tolerant persisters via induction of cryptic prophages. Similarly, the inadvertent infection of mutant strains with bacteriophage φ80, a notorious laboratory contaminant, apparently caused several of the phenotypes that we reported in our previous studies. We therefore reconstructed all infected mutants and probed...

  16. Automatic electromagnetic valve for previous vacuum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granados, C. E.; Martin, F.

    1959-01-01

    A valve which permits the maintenance of an installation vacuum when electric current fails is described. It also lets the air in the previous vacuum bomb to prevent the oil ascending in the vacuum tubes. (Author)

  17. Harnessing real world data from wearables and self-monitoring devices: feasibility, confounders and ethical considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uttam Barick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The increasing usage of smart phones has compelled mobile technology to become a universal part of everyday life. From wearable gadgets to sophisticated implantable medical devices, the advent of mobile technology has completely transformed the healthcare delivery scenario. Self-report measures enabled by mobile technology are increasingly becoming a more time and cost efficient method of assessing real world health outcomes. But, amidst all the optimism, there are concerns also on adopting this technology as regulations and ethical considerations on privacy legislations of end users are unclear. In general, the healthcare industry functions on some stringent regulations and compliances to ensure the safety and protection of patient information. A couple of the most common regulations are Health Insurance Portability Accountability Act (HIPPA and Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH. To harness the true potential of mobile technology to empower stakeholders and provide them a common platform which seamlessly integrates healthcare delivery and research, it is imperative that challenges and drawbacks in the sphere are identified and addressed. In this age of information and technology, no stones should be left unturned to ensure that the human race has access to the best healthcare services without an intrusion into his/her confidentiality. This article is an overview of the role of tracking and self-monitoring devices in data collection for real world evidence/observational studies in context to feasibility, confounders and ethical considerations.

  18. β decay of Na32

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattoon, C. M.; Sarazin, F.; Hackman, G.; Cunningham, E. S.; Austin, R. A. E.; Ball, G. C.; Chakrawarthy, R. S.; Finlay, P.; Garrett, P. E.; Grinyer, G. F.; Hyland, B.; Koopmans, K. A.; Leslie, J. R.; Phillips, A. A.; Schumaker, M. A.; Scraggs, H. C.; Schwarzenberg, J.; Smith, M. B.; Svensson, C. E.; Waddington, J. C.; Walker, P. M.; Washbrook, B.; Zganjar, E.

    2007-01-01

    The β-decay of Na32 has been studied using β-γ coincidences. New transitions and levels are tentatively placed in the level scheme of Mg32 from an analysis of γ-γ and β-γ-γ coincidences. The observation of the indirect feeding of the 2321 keV state in Mg32 removes some restrictions previously placed on the spin assignment for this state. No evidence of a state at 2117 keV in Mg32 is found. Previously unobserved weak transitions up to 5.4 MeV were recorded but could not be placed in the decay scheme of Na32.

  19. Serotonin-1A receptors in major depression quantified using PET: controversies, confounds, and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Saurav; Hirvonen, Jussi; Hines, Christina S; Henter, Ioline D; Svenningsson, Per; Pike, Victor W; Innis, Robert B

    2012-02-15

    The serotonin-1A (5-HT(1A)) receptor is of particular interest in human positron emission tomography (PET) studies of major depressive disorder (MDD). Of the eight studies investigating this issue in the brains of patients with MDD, four reported decreased 5-HT(1A) receptor density, two reported no change, and two reported increased 5-HT(1A) receptor density. While clinical heterogeneity may have contributed to these differing results, methodological factors by themselves could also explain the discrepancies. This review highlights several of these factors, including the use of the cerebellum as a reference region and the imprecision of measuring the concentration of parent radioligand in arterial plasma, the method otherwise considered to be the 'gold standard'. Other potential confounds also exist that could restrict or unexpectedly affect the interpretation of results. For example, the radioligand may be a substrate for an efflux transporter - like P-gp - at the blood-brain barrier; furthermore, the binding of the radioligand to the receptor in various stages of cellular trafficking is unknown. Efflux transport and cellular trafficking may also be differentially expressed in patients compared to healthy subjects. We believe that, taken together, the existing disparate findings do not reliably answer the question of whether 5-HT(1A) receptors are altered in MDD or in subgroups of patients with MDD. In addition, useful meta-analysis is precluded because only one of the imaging centers acquired all the data necessary to address these methodological concerns. We recommend that in the future, individual centers acquire more thorough data capable of addressing methodological concerns, and that multiple centers collaborate to meaningfully pool their data for meta-analysis. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Gaining Comparative Advantage Through Discretionary Expenditures: The Returns to R&D and Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Erickson; Robert Jacobson

    1992-01-01

    We explore the extent to which R&D and advertising expenditures generate a comparative advantage that allows firms to earn supranormal profits. After controlling for unobserved firm-specific factors and the feedback between discretionary expenditures and profitability, our results suggest substantially lower accounting and stock market returns to R&D and advertising than indicated in previous research. Isolating mechanisms, which prevent imitation, do not appear sufficient for either R&D or a...

  1. New results on multiple excitations of giant resonances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mordechai, S.; Texas Univ., Austin, TX; Moore, C.F.

    1993-01-01

    Exotic excitations like the double giant dipole were predicted for many years but not observed experimentally until recently. Several experiments have been carried out at Los Alamos National laboratory to search for these new collective modes of the nucleus. The results discover two previously unobserved types of double giant resonances. This work presents the recent pion double charge exchange data and the analysis that support the existence of two such exotic vibrational nuclear modes

  2. Ability, Schooling Choices and Gender Labor Market Discrimination: Evidence for Chile

    OpenAIRE

    David Bravo; Claudia Sanhueza; Sergio Urzúa

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the gender differences in the Chilean labor market. We formally deal with the selection of the individuals into schooling levels and its consequences on the gender gaps. Our approach allows for the presence of not only heterogeneity in observable variables but also unobserved heterogeneity. We link this unobserved heterogeneity to unobserved scholastic ability. In the analysis, we utilize a new and rich data set for Chile. This data set contains...

  3. Secondary recurrent miscarriage is associated with previous male birth.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ooi, Poh Veh

    2012-01-31

    Secondary recurrent miscarriage (RM) is defined as three or more consecutive pregnancy losses after delivery of a viable infant. Previous reports suggest that a firstborn male child is associated with less favourable subsequent reproductive potential, possibly due to maternal immunisation against male-specific minor histocompatibility antigens. In a retrospective cohort study of 85 cases of secondary RM we aimed to determine if secondary RM was associated with (i) gender of previous child, maternal age, or duration of miscarriage history, and (ii) increased risk of pregnancy complications. Fifty-three women (62.0%; 53\\/85) gave birth to a male child prior to RM compared to 32 (38.0%; 32\\/85) who gave birth to a female child (p=0.002). The majority (91.7%; 78\\/85) had uncomplicated, term deliveries and normal birth weight neonates, with one quarter of the women previously delivered by Caesarean section. All had routine RM investigations and 19.0% (16\\/85) had an abnormal result. Fifty-seven women conceived again and 33.3% (19\\/57) miscarried, but there was no significant difference in failure rates between those with a previous male or female child (13\\/32 vs. 6\\/25, p=0.2). When patients with abnormal results were excluded, or when women with only one previous child were considered, there was still no difference in these rates. A previous male birth may be associated with an increased risk of secondary RM but numbers preclude concluding whether this increases recurrence risk. The suggested association with previous male birth provides a basis for further investigations at a molecular level.

  4. Secondary recurrent miscarriage is associated with previous male birth.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ooi, Poh Veh

    2011-01-01

    Secondary recurrent miscarriage (RM) is defined as three or more consecutive pregnancy losses after delivery of a viable infant. Previous reports suggest that a firstborn male child is associated with less favourable subsequent reproductive potential, possibly due to maternal immunisation against male-specific minor histocompatibility antigens. In a retrospective cohort study of 85 cases of secondary RM we aimed to determine if secondary RM was associated with (i) gender of previous child, maternal age, or duration of miscarriage history, and (ii) increased risk of pregnancy complications. Fifty-three women (62.0%; 53\\/85) gave birth to a male child prior to RM compared to 32 (38.0%; 32\\/85) who gave birth to a female child (p=0.002). The majority (91.7%; 78\\/85) had uncomplicated, term deliveries and normal birth weight neonates, with one quarter of the women previously delivered by Caesarean section. All had routine RM investigations and 19.0% (16\\/85) had an abnormal result. Fifty-seven women conceived again and 33.3% (19\\/57) miscarried, but there was no significant difference in failure rates between those with a previous male or female child (13\\/32 vs. 6\\/25, p=0.2). When patients with abnormal results were excluded, or when women with only one previous child were considered, there was still no difference in these rates. A previous male birth may be associated with an increased risk of secondary RM but numbers preclude concluding whether this increases recurrence risk. The suggested association with previous male birth provides a basis for further investigations at a molecular level.

  5. Does environmental confounding mask pleiotropic effects of a multiple sclerosis susceptibility variant on vitamin D in psychosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyegbe, Conrad O; Acharya, Anita; Lally, John; Gardner-Sood, Poonam; Smith, Louise S; Smith, Shubulade; Murray, Robin; Howes, Oliver; Gaughran, Fiona

    2015-01-01

    This work addresses the existing and emerging evidence of overlap within the environmental and genetic profiles of multiple sclerosis (MS) and schizophrenia. To investigate whether a genetic risk factor for MS (rs703842), whose variation is indicative of vitamin D status in the disorder, could also be a determinant of vitamin D status in chronic psychosis patients. A cohort of 224 chronic psychosis cases was phenotyped and biologically profiled. The relationship between rs703842 and physiological vitamin D status in the blood plasma was assessed by logistic regression. Deficiency was defined as a blood plasma concentration below 10 ng/µl. Potential environmental confounders of the vitamin D status were considered as part of the analysis. We report suggestive evidence of an association with vitamin D status in established psychosis (ß standardized=0.51, P=0.04). The logistic model fit significantly benefited from controlling for body mass index, depression and ethnicity (χ (2)=91.7; 2 degrees of freedom (df); P=1.2×10(20)). The results suggest that, in addition to lifestyle changes that accompany the onset of illness, vitamin D dysregulation in psychosis has a genetic component that links into MS. Further, comprehensive studies are needed to evaluate this prospect.

  6. Adherent Human Alveolar Macrophages Exhibit a Transient Pro-Inflammatory Profile That Confounds Responses to Innate Immune Stimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Gillian S.; Booth, Helen; Petit, Sarah J.; Potton, Elspeth; Towers, Greg J.; Miller, Robert F.; Chain, Benjamin M.; Noursadeghi, Mahdad

    2012-01-01

    Alveolar macrophages (AM) are thought to have a key role in the immunopathogenesis of respiratory diseases. We sought to test the hypothesis that human AM exhibit an anti-inflammatory bias by making genome-wide comparisons with monocyte derived macrophages (MDM). Adherent AM obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage of patients under investigation for haemoptysis, but found to have no respiratory pathology, were compared to MDM from healthy volunteers by whole genome transcriptional profiling before and after innate immune stimulation. We found that freshly isolated AM exhibited a marked pro-inflammatory transcriptional signature. High levels of basal pro-inflammatory gene expression gave the impression of attenuated responses to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and the RNA analogue, poly IC, but in rested cells pro-inflammatory gene expression declined and transcriptional responsiveness to these stimuli was restored. In comparison to MDM, both freshly isolated and rested AM showed upregulation of MHC class II molecules. In most experimental paradigms ex vivo adherent AM are used immediately after isolation. Therefore, the confounding effects of their pro-inflammatory profile at baseline need careful consideration. Moreover, despite the prevailing view that AM have an anti-inflammatory bias, our data clearly show that they can adopt a striking pro-inflammatory phenotype, and may have greater capacity for presentation of exogenous antigens than MDM. PMID:22768282

  7. Reoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy after previous mastectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karam, Amer; Stempel, Michelle; Cody, Hiram S; Port, Elisa R

    2008-10-01

    Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is the standard of care for axillary staging in breast cancer, but many clinical scenarios questioning the validity of SLN biopsy remain. Here we describe our experience with reoperative-SLN (re-SLN) biopsy after previous mastectomy. Review of the SLN database from September 1996 to December 2007 yielded 20 procedures done in the setting of previous mastectomy. SLN biopsy was performed using radioisotope with or without blue dye injection superior to the mastectomy incision, in the skin flap in all patients. In 17 of 20 patients (85%), re-SLN biopsy was performed for local or regional recurrence after mastectomy. Re-SLN biopsy was successful in 13 of 20 patients (65%) after previous mastectomy. Of the 13 patients, 2 had positive re-SLN, and completion axillary dissection was performed, with 1 having additional positive nodes. In the 11 patients with negative re-SLN, 2 patients underwent completion axillary dissection demonstrating additional negative nodes. One patient with a negative re-SLN experienced chest wall recurrence combined with axillary recurrence 11 months after re-SLN biopsy. All others remained free of local or axillary recurrence. Re-SLN biopsy was unsuccessful in 7 of 20 patients (35%). In three of seven patients, axillary dissection was performed, yielding positive nodes in two of the three. The remaining four of seven patients all had previous modified radical mastectomy, so underwent no additional axillary surgery. In this small series, re-SLN was successful after previous mastectomy, and this procedure may play some role when axillary staging is warranted after mastectomy.

  8. 77 FR 70176 - Previous Participation Certification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-23

    ... participants' previous participation in government programs and ensure that the past record is acceptable prior... information is designed to be 100 percent automated and digital submission of all data and certifications is... government programs and ensure that the past record is acceptable prior to granting approval to participate...

  9. Algorithm of Dynamic Model Structural Identification of the Multivariable Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л.М. Блохін

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available  The new algorithm of dynamic model structural identification of the multivariable stabilized plant with observable and unobservable disturbances in the regular operating  modes is offered in this paper. With the help of the offered algorithm it is possible to define the “perturbed” models of dynamics not only of the plant, but also the dynamics characteristics of observable and unobservable casual disturbances taking into account the absence of correlation between themselves and control inputs with the unobservable perturbations.

  10. Translational Rodent Models for Research on Parasitic Protozoa-A Review of Confounders and Possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, Totta; Torelli, Francesca; Klotz, Christian; Pedersen, Amy B; Seeber, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Rodents, in particular Mus musculus , have a long and invaluable history as models for human diseases in biomedical research, although their translational value has been challenged in a number of cases. We provide some examples in which rodents have been suboptimal as models for human biology and discuss confounders which influence experiments and may explain some of the misleading results. Infections of rodents with protozoan parasites are no exception in requiring close consideration upon model choice. We focus on the significant differences between inbred, outbred and wild animals, and the importance of factors such as microbiota, which are gaining attention as crucial variables in infection experiments. Frequently, mouse or rat models are chosen for convenience, e.g., availability in the institution rather than on an unbiased evaluation of whether they provide the answer to a given question. Apart from a general discussion on translational success or failure, we provide examples where infections with single-celled parasites in a chosen lab rodent gave contradictory or misleading results, and when possible discuss the reason for this. We present emerging alternatives to traditional rodent models, such as humanized mice and organoid primary cell cultures. So-called recombinant inbred strains such as the Collaborative Cross collection are also a potential solution for certain challenges. In addition, we emphasize the advantages of using wild rodents for certain immunological, ecological, and/or behavioral questions. The experimental challenges (e.g., availability of species-specific reagents) that come with the use of such non-model systems are also discussed. Our intention is to foster critical judgment of both traditional and newly available translational rodent models for research on parasitic protozoa that can complement the existing mouse and rat models.

  11. Climate change as a confounding factor in reversibility of acidification: RAIN and CLIMEX projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia, southernmost Norway, together cover 17 years (1984-2000 of whole-catchment manipulation of acid deposition and climate. A 1200 m2 roof placed over the forest canopy at KIM catchment excluded about 80% of ambient acid deposition; clean rain was sprinkled under the roof. A climate change treatment (3.7°C increase in air temperature and increase in air carbon dioxide concentrations to 560 ppmv was superimposed on the clean rain treatment for four years (1995-1998. Sea-salt inputs and temperature are climate-related factors that influence water chemistry and can confound long-term trends caused by changes in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. The RAIN and CLIMEX experiments at Risdalsheia provided direct experimental data that allow quantitative assessment of these factors. Run-off chemistry responded rapidly to the decreased acid deposition. Sulphate concentrations decreased by 50% within three years; nitrate and ammonium concentrations decreased to new steady-state levels within the first year. Acid neutralising capacity increased and hydrogen ion and inorganic aluminium decreased. Similar recovery from acidification was also observed at the reference catchment, ROLF, in response to the general 50% reduction in sulphate deposition over southern Norway in the late 1980s and 1990s. Variations in sea-salt deposition caused large variations in run-off chemistry at the reference catchment ROLF and the year-to-year noise in acid neutralising capacity was as large as the overall trend over the period. These variations were absent at KIM catchment because the sea-salt inputs were held constant over the entire 17 years of the clean rain treatment. The climate change experiment at KIM catchment resulted in increased leaching of inorganic nitrogen, probably due to increased mineralisation and nitrification rates in the soils. Keywords: acid deposition, global change, water, soil, catchment, experiment, Norway.

  12. Translational Rodent Models for Research on Parasitic Protozoa—A Review of Confounders and Possibilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totta Ehret

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rodents, in particular Mus musculus, have a long and invaluable history as models for human diseases in biomedical research, although their translational value has been challenged in a number of cases. We provide some examples in which rodents have been suboptimal as models for human biology and discuss confounders which influence experiments and may explain some of the misleading results. Infections of rodents with protozoan parasites are no exception in requiring close consideration upon model choice. We focus on the significant differences between inbred, outbred and wild animals, and the importance of factors such as microbiota, which are gaining attention as crucial variables in infection experiments. Frequently, mouse or rat models are chosen for convenience, e.g., availability in the institution rather than on an unbiased evaluation of whether they provide the answer to a given question. Apart from a general discussion on translational success or failure, we provide examples where infections with single-celled parasites in a chosen lab rodent gave contradictory or misleading results, and when possible discuss the reason for this. We present emerging alternatives to traditional rodent models, such as humanized mice and organoid primary cell cultures. So-called recombinant inbred strains such as the Collaborative Cross collection are also a potential solution for certain challenges. In addition, we emphasize the advantages of using wild rodents for certain immunological, ecological, and/or behavioral questions. The experimental challenges (e.g., availability of species-specific reagents that come with the use of such non-model systems are also discussed. Our intention is to foster critical judgment of both traditional and newly available translational rodent models for research on parasitic protozoa that can complement the existing mouse and rat models.

  13. Sesgos de confusión por indicación y gravedad en estudios observacionales Confounding bias due to indication and severity in observational studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Nuevo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Los estudios observacionales están sujetos a sesgos que pueden conducir a una interpretación errónea de los resultados. El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo determinar la influencia del tratamiento con omeprazol sobre la duración de la baja laboral en pacientes con esguince de tobillo que tomaban antiinflamatorios no esteroideos. Se utilizaron los registros de la base de datos de la mutua Ibermutuamur. En contra de lo esperado, se observó que los pacientes que recibieron omeprazol presentaron una baja más prolongada que los que no recibieron omeprazol. Es probable que estos hallazgos se deban a la influencia de un sesgo de confusión por gravedad, pues los pacientes que recibieron omeprazol presentaban un esguince más grave, aunque no se puede descartar un sesgo de confusión por indicación. Para evitar la influencia de estos errores sistemáticos se deben controlar los sesgos a lo largo de todo el estudio, desde el diseño hasta el análisis de los datos.Observational studies are subject to biases that may lead to misinterpretation of the results. This study aimed to determine the influence of omeprazole treatment on the duration of sick leave in patients with ankle sprains treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. We used the Ibermutuamur database. Contrary to our expectations, sick leave was longer in patients who received omeprazole than in those who did not. These findings were probably due to the influence of a bias due to confounding by severity, given that patients who received omeprazole had a worse kind of ankle sprain; however, a bias due to confounding by indication cannot be excluded. To avoid the influence of these systematic errors, biases should be monitored from the design stage to the data analysis stage.

  14. [Prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes mellitus in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Basto-Abreu, Ana; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Zárate-Rojas, Emiliano; Villalpando, Salvador; Barrientos-Gutiérrez, Tonatiuh

    2018-01-01

    To compare the prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes in 2016 with previous national surveys and to describe treatment and its complications. Mexico's national surveys Ensa 2000, Ensanut 2006, 2012 and 2016 were used. For 2016, logistic regression models and measures of central tendency and dispersion were obtained. The prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes in 2016 was 9.4%. The increase of 2.2% relative to 2012 was not significant and only observed in patients older than 60 years. While preventive measures have increased, the access to medical treatment and lifestyle has not changed. The treatment has been modified, with an increase in insulin and decrease in hypoglycaemic agents. Population aging, lack of screening actions and the increase in diabetes complications will lead to an increase on the burden of disease. Policy measures targeting primary and secondary prevention of diabetes are crucial.

  15. The positive impact of women's employment on divorce: Context, selection, or anticipation?

    OpenAIRE

    Daniele Vignoli; Anna Matysiak; Marta Styrc; Valentina Tocchioni

    2018-01-01

    Background: Empirical findings regarding the impact of women's employment on divorce are mixed. One explanation is that the effects are moderated by the country context. Another is that previous studies have failed to account for unobserved factors that introduce bias into the estimated effects. Studies also rarely consider possible anticipatory employment behavior on the part of women who are thinking of divorce. Objective: The aim of this study is to deepen our understanding of the nexus...

  16. Essays on microeconomics and statistical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto

    2006-01-01

    Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...

  17. Relationship of family formation characteristics with unsafe abortion: is it confounded by women's socio-economic status? - A case-control study from Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C; Attygalle, Deepika; Moonasinghe, Loshan

    2016-06-17

    Literature shows that choice for unsafe abortion is often driven by poverty. However, factors related to the family formation behaviour of women are also implied as determinants of this decision. This study assessed which family formation characteristics of women are associated with the risk of unsafe abortion, without being confounded by their low socio-economic status among Sri Lankan women admitted to hospital following post-abortion complications. An unmatched case-control study was conducted in nine hospitals in eight districts in Sri Lanka among 171 women with post-abortion complications following unsafe abortion (Cases) and 600 postpartum mothers admitted to same hospitals during the same period for delivery of term unintended pregnancies (Controls). Interviewer-administered-questionnaires obtained demographic, socio-economic and family formation related characteristics. Risk factors of abortion were assessed by odds-ratio (OR), adjusted for their socio-economic status in logistic regression analysis. Low socio-economic status, characterised by low-education (adjusted OR = 1.5; 95 % CI = 1.1-2.4) and less/unskilled occupations (2.3; 1.4-3.6) was a significant risk factor for unsafe abortion. Independent of this risk, being unmarried (9.3; 4.0-21.6), failure in informed decisions about desired family size (2.2; 1.4-3.5), not having a girl-child (2.2; 1.4-3.4) and longer average birth intervals (0.7 years; 0.6-0.8) signified the vulnerability of women for unsafe abortion. Cases were as fast as the controls in their family completion (4.3 versus 4.5 years; p = 0.4), but were at increased risk for abortion, if their average birth intervals (including the last one) were longer. Previous contraceptive use, age at reproductive events or partners' characteristics did not impart any risk for abortion. Low socio-economic status is not the most influencing risk factor for unsafe abortions leading to complications, but many other factors in relation to

  18. Good research practices for comparative effectiveness research: approaches to mitigate bias and confounding in the design of nonrandomized studies of treatment effects using secondary data sources: the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Good Research Practices for Retrospective Database Analysis Task Force Report--Part II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Emily; Martin, Bradley C; Van Staa, Tjeerd; Garbe, Edeltraut; Siebert, Uwe; Johnson, Michael L

    2009-01-01

    The goal of comparative effectiveness analysis is to examine the relationship between two variables, treatment, or exposure and effectiveness or outcome. Unlike data obtained through randomized controlled trials, researchers face greater challenges with causal inference with observational studies. Recognizing these challenges, a task force was formed to develop a guidance document on methodological approaches to addresses these biases. The task force was commissioned and a Chair was selected by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Board of Directors in October 2007. This report, the second of three reported in this issue of the Journal, discusses the inherent biases when using secondary data sources for comparative effectiveness analysis and provides methodological recommendations to help mitigate these biases. The task force report provides recommendations and tools for researchers to mitigate threats to validity from bias and confounding in measurement of exposure and outcome. Recommendations on design of study included: the need for data analysis plan with causal diagrams; detailed attention to classification bias in definition of exposure and clinical outcome; careful and appropriate use of restriction; extreme care to identify and control for confounding factors, including time-dependent confounding. Design of nonrandomized studies of comparative effectiveness face several daunting issues, including measurement of exposure and outcome challenged by misclassification and confounding. Use of causal diagrams and restriction are two techniques that can improve the theoretical basis for analyzing treatment effects in study populations of more homogeneity, with reduced loss of generalizability.

  19. Clinical breath analysis: Discriminating between human endogenous compounds and exogenous (environmental) chemical confounders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath originate from current or previous environmental exposures (exogenous compounds) and internal metabolic anabolic and catabolic) production (endogenous compounds). The origins of certain VOCs in breath presumed to be endogenous ...

  20. A methodology for distinguishing divergent cell fates within a common progenitor population: adenoma- and neuroendocrine-like cells are confounders of rat ileal epithelial cell (IEC-18 culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paxton Jessica B

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background IEC-18 cells are a non-transformed, immortal cell line derived from juvenile rat ileal crypt cells. They may have experimental advantages over tumor-derived gastrointestinal lineages, including preservation of phenotype, normal endocrine responses and retention of differentiation potential. However, their proclivity for spontaneous differentiation / transformation may be stereotypical and could represent a more profound experimental confounder than previously realized. We hypothesized that IEC-18 cells spontaneously diverge towards a uniform mixture of epigenetic fates, with corresponding phenotypes, rather than persist as a single progenitor lineage. Results IEC-18 cells were cultured for 72 hours in serum free media (SFM, with and without various insulin-like growth factor agonists to differentially boost the basal rate of proliferation. A strategy was employed to identify constitutive genes as markers of divergent fates through gene array analysis by cross-referencing fold-change trends for individual genes against crypt cell abundance in each treatment. We then confirmed the cell-specific phenotype by immunolocalization of proteins corresponding to those genes. The majority of IEC-18 cells in SFM alone had a loss in expression of the adenomatous polyposis coli (APC gene at the mRNA and protein levels, consistent with adenoma-like transformation. In addition, a small subset of cells expressed the serotonin receptor 2A gene and had neuroendocrine-like morphology. Conclusions IEC-18 cells commonly undergo a change in cell fate prior to reaching confluence. The most common fate switch that we were able to detect correlates with a down regulation of the APC gene and transformation into an adenoma-like phenotype.

  1. 75 FR 76056 - FEDERAL REGISTER CITATION OF PREVIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT:

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-07

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Sunshine Act Meeting FEDERAL REGISTER CITATION OF PREVIOUS ANNOUNCEMENT: STATUS: Closed meeting. PLACE: 100 F Street, NE., Washington, DC. DATE AND TIME OF PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED MEETING: Thursday, December 9, 2010 at 2 p.m. CHANGE IN THE MEETING: Time change. The closed...

  2. Implant breast reconstruction after salvage mastectomy in previously irradiated patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persichetti, Paolo; Cagli, Barbara; Simone, Pierfranco; Cogliandro, Annalisa; Fortunato, Lucio; Altomare, Vittorio; Trodella, Lucio

    2009-04-01

    The most common surgical approach in case of local tumor recurrence after quadrantectomy and radiotherapy is salvage mastectomy. Breast reconstruction is the subsequent phase of the treatment and the plastic surgeon has to operate on previously irradiated and manipulated tissues. The medical literature highlights that breast reconstruction with tissue expanders is not a pursuable option, considering previous radiotherapy a contraindication. The purpose of this retrospective study is to evaluate the influence of previous radiotherapy on 2-stage breast reconstruction (tissue expander/implant). Only patients with analogous timing of radiation therapy and the same demolitive and reconstructive procedures were recruited. The results of this study prove that, after salvage mastectomy in previously irradiated patients, implant reconstruction is still possible. Further comparative studies are, of course, advisable to draw any conclusion on the possibility to perform implant reconstruction in previously irradiated patients.

  3. Dipole response of 76Se above 4 MeV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, P. M.; Cooper, N.; Werner, V.; Rusev, G.; Stevenson, P. D.; Rios, A.; Bernards, C.; Chakraborty, A.; Crider, B. P.; Glorius, J.; Ilieva, R. S.; Kelley, J. H.; Kwan, E.; Peters, E. E.; Pietralla, N.; Raut, R.; Romig, C.; Savran, D.; Schnorrenberger, L.; Smith, M. K.; Sonnabend, K.; Tonchev, A. P.; Tornow, W.; Yates, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    The dipole response of 3476Se in the energy range from 4 to 9 MeV has been analyzed using a (γ⃗,γ') polarized photon scattering technique, performed at the High Intensity γ-Ray Source facility at Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory, to complement previous work performed using unpolarized photons. The results of this work offer both an enhanced sensitivity scan of the dipole response and an unambiguous determination of the parities of the observed J=1 states. The dipole response is found to be dominated by E1 excitations, and can reasonably be attributed to a pygmy dipole resonance. Evidence is presented to suggest that a significant amount of directly unobserved excitation strength is present in the region, due to unobserved branching transitions in the decays of resonantly excited states. The dipole response of the region is underestimated when considering only ground state decay branches. We investigate the electric dipole response theoretically, performing calculations in a three-dimensional (3D) Cartesian-basis time-dependent Skyrme-Hartree-Fock framework.

  4. 28 CFR 10.5 - Incorporation of papers previously filed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Incorporation of papers previously filed... CARRYING ON ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES Registration Statement § 10.5 Incorporation of papers previously filed. Papers and documents already filed with the Attorney General pursuant to the said act and...

  5. No discrimination against previous mates in a sexually cannibalistic spider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fromhage, Lutz; Schneider, Jutta M.

    2005-09-01

    In several animal species, females discriminate against previous mates in subsequent mating decisions, increasing the potential for multiple paternity. In spiders, female choice may take the form of selective sexual cannibalism, which has been shown to bias paternity in favor of particular males. If cannibalistic attacks function to restrict a male's paternity, females may have little interest to remate with males having survived such an attack. We therefore studied the possibility of female discrimination against previous mates in sexually cannibalistic Argiope bruennichi, where females almost always attack their mate at the onset of copulation. We compared mating latency and copulation duration of males having experienced a previous copulation either with the same or with a different female, but found no evidence for discrimination against previous mates. However, males copulated significantly shorter when inserting into a used, compared to a previously unused, genital pore of the female.

  6. An indicator for effects of organic toxicants on lotic invertebrate communities: Independence of confounding environmental factors over an extensive river continuum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beketov, Mikhail A.; Liess, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    Distinguishing between effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors on ecosystems is a fundamental problem in environmental science. In river systems the longitudinal gradient of environmental factors is one of the most relevant sources of dissimilarity between communities that could be confounded with anthropogenic disturbances. To test the hypothesis that in macroinvertebrate communities the distribution of species' sensitivity to organic toxicants is independent of natural longitudinal factors, but depends on contamination with organic toxicants, we analysed the relationship between community sensitivity SPEAR organic (average community sensitivity to organic toxicants) and natural and anthropogenic environmental factors in a large-scale river system, from alpine streams to a lowland river. The results show that SPEAR organic is largely independent of natural longitudinal factors, but strongly dependent on contamination with organic toxicants (petrochemicals and synthetic surfactants). Usage of SPEAR organic as a stressor-specific longitude-independent measure will facilitate detection of community disturbance by organic toxicants. - Indicator for organic toxicants at community level can be independent of natural environmental factors

  7. Return to Experience and Initial Wage Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke; Vejlin, Rune Majlund

    This paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience. We use a Mincer-like wage model to nonparametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience. The relationship...

  8. The Determinants of VAT Introduction : A Spatial Duration Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Lei, J.; Ligthart, J.E.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. This specification relies highly on a pre-determinate covariance structure of the errors. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved

  9. Associations of Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) with Lower Birth Weight: An Evaluation of Potential Confounding by Glomerular Filtration Rate Using a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model (PBPK).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verner, Marc-André; Loccisano, Anne E; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; Yoon, Miyoung; Wu, Huali; McDougall, Robin; Maisonet, Mildred; Marcus, Michele; Kishi, Reiko; Miyashita, Chihiro; Chen, Mei-Huei; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Andersen, Melvin E; Clewell, Harvey J; Longnecker, Matthew P

    2015-12-01

    Prenatal exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) has been associated with lower birth weight in epidemiologic studies. This association could be attributable to glomerular filtration rate (GFR), which is related to PFAS concentration and birth weight. We used a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of pregnancy to assess how much of the PFAS-birth weight association observed in epidemiologic studies might be attributable to GFR. We modified a PBPK model to reflect the association of GFR with birth weight (estimated from three studies of GFR and birth weight) and used it to simulate PFAS concentrations in maternal and cord plasma. The model was run 250,000 times, with variation in parameters, to simulate a population. Simulated data were analyzed to evaluate the association between PFAS levels and birth weight due to GFR. We compared simulated estimates with those from a meta-analysis of epidemiologic data. The reduction in birth weight for each 1-ng/mL increase in simulated cord plasma for perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was 2.72 g (95% CI: -3.40, -2.04), and for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was 7.13 g (95% CI: -8.46, -5.80); results based on maternal plasma at term were similar. Results were sensitive to variations in PFAS level distributions and the strength of the GFR-birth weight association. In comparison, our meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies suggested that each 1-ng/mL increase in prenatal PFOS and PFOA levels was associated with 5.00 g (95% CI: -21.66, -7.78) and 14.72 g (95% CI: -8.92, -1.09) reductions in birth weight, respectively. Results of our simulations suggest that a substantial proportion of the association between prenatal PFAS and birth weight may be attributable to confounding by GFR and that confounding by GFR may be more important in studies with sample collection later in pregnancy.

  10. Application of Mycobacterium Leprae-specific cellular and serological tests for the differential diagnosis of leprosy from confounding dermatoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Aline Araújo; Hungria, Emerith Mayra; Costa, Maurício Barcelos; Sousa, Ana Lúcia Osório Maroccolo; Castilho, Mirian Lane Oliveira; Gonçalves, Heitor Sá; Pontes, Maria Araci Andrade; Duthie, Malcolm S; Stefani, Mariane Martins Araújo

    2016-10-01

    Mycobacterium leprae-specific serological and cell-mediated-immunity/CMI test were evaluated for the differential diagnosis of multibacillary/MB, and paucibacillary/PB leprosy from other dermatoses. Whole-blood assay/WBA/IFNγ stimulated with LID-1 antigen and ELISA tests for IgG to LID-1 and IgM to PGL-I were performed. WBA/LID-1/IFNγ production was observed in 72% PB, 11% MB leprosy, 38% dermatoses, 40% healthy endemic controls/EC. The receiver operating curve/ROC for WBA/LID-1 in PB versus other dermatoses showed 72.5% sensitivity, 61.5% specificity and an area-under-the-curve/AUC=0.75; 74% positive predictive value/PPV, 59% negative predictive value/NPV. Anti PGL-I serology was positive in 67% MB, 8% PB leprosy, 6% of other dermatoses; its sensitivity for MB=66%, specificity=93%, AUC=0.89; PPV=91%, NPV=72%. Anti-LID-1 serology was positive in 87% MB, 7% PB leprosy, all other participants were seronegative; 87.5% sensitivity for MB, 100% specificity, AUC=0.97; PPV=100%, NPV=88%. In highly endemic areas anti-LID-1/PGL-I serology and WBA/LID-1-represent useful tools for the differential diagnosis of leprosy from other confounding dermatoses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling Unobserved Consideration Sets for Household Panel Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new method to model consumers' consideration and choice processes. We develop a parsimonious probit type model for consideration and a multinomial probit model for choice, given consideration. Unlike earlier models of consideration ours is not prone to the curse of

  12. Retrieving unobserved consideration sets from household panel data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E.M. van Nierop; R. Paap (Richard); B. Bronnenberg; Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a new model to describe consideration, consisting of a multivariate probit model component for consideration and a multinomial probit model component for choice, given consideration. The approach allows one to analyze stated consideration set data, revealed consideration set

  13. A previous hamstring injury affects kicking mechanics in soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navandar, Archit; Veiga, Santiago; Torres, Gonzalo; Chorro, David; Navarro, Enrique

    2018-01-10

    Although the kicking skill is influenced by limb dominance and sex, how a previous hamstring injury affects kicking has not been studied in detail. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of sex and limb dominance on kicking in limbs with and without a previous hamstring injury. 45 professional players (males: n=19, previously injured players=4, age=21.16 ± 2.00 years; females: n=19, previously injured players=10, age=22.15 ± 4.50 years) performed 5 kicks each with their preferred and non-preferred limb at a target 7m away, which were recorded with a three-dimensional motion capture system. Kinematic and kinetic variables were extracted for the backswing, leg cocking, leg acceleration and follow through phases. A shorter backswing (20.20 ± 3.49% vs 25.64 ± 4.57%), and differences in knee flexion angle (58 ± 10o vs 72 ± 14o) and hip flexion velocity (8 ± 0rad/s vs 10 ± 2rad/s) were observed in previously injured, non-preferred limb kicks for females. A lower peak hip linear velocity (3.50 ± 0.84m/s vs 4.10 ± 0.45m/s) was observed in previously injured, preferred limb kicks of females. These differences occurred in the backswing and leg-cocking phases where the hamstring muscles were the most active. A variation in the functioning of the hamstring muscles and that of the gluteus maximus and iliopsoas in the case of a previous injury could account for the differences observed in the kicking pattern. Therefore, the effects of a previous hamstring injury must be considered while designing rehabilitation programs to re-educate kicking movement.

  14. Subsequent childbirth after a previous traumatic birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Cheryl Tatano; Watson, Sue

    2010-01-01

    Nine percent of new mothers in the United States who participated in the Listening to Mothers II Postpartum Survey screened positive for meeting the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder after childbirth. Women who have had a traumatic birth experience report fewer subsequent children and a longer length of time before their second baby. Childbirth-related posttraumatic stress disorder impacts couples' physical relationship, communication, conflict, emotions, and bonding with their children. The purpose of this study was to describe the meaning of women's experiences of a subsequent childbirth after a previous traumatic birth. Phenomenology was the research design used. An international sample of 35 women participated in this Internet study. Women were asked, "Please describe in as much detail as you can remember your subsequent pregnancy, labor, and delivery following your previous traumatic birth." Colaizzi's phenomenological data analysis approach was used to analyze the stories of the 35 women. Data analysis yielded four themes: (a) riding the turbulent wave of panic during pregnancy; (b) strategizing: attempts to reclaim their body and complete the journey to motherhood; (c) bringing reverence to the birthing process and empowering women; and (d) still elusive: the longed-for healing birth experience. Subsequent childbirth after a previous birth trauma has the potential to either heal or retraumatize women. During pregnancy, women need permission and encouragement to grieve their prior traumatic births to help remove the burden of their invisible pain.

  15. Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tiger W; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2017-10-01

    With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008 ), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005 ; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005 ; Pillow et al., 2008 ), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals.

  16. Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

    2017-11-30

    Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tiger W.; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P.; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

    2017-01-01

    With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005; Pillow et al., 2008), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals. PMID:28777719

  18. Studies of Nuclei Close to 132Sn Using Single-Neutron Transfer Reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, K.L.; Pain, S.D.; Kozub, R.L.; Adekola, Aderemi S.; Bardayan, Daniel W.; Blackmon, Jeff C.; Catford, Wilton N.; Chae, K.Y.; Chipps, K.; Cizewski, J.A.; Erikson, Luke; Gaddis, A.L.; Greife, U.; Grzywacz, R.K.; Harlin, Christopher W.; Hatarik, Robert; Howard, Joshua A.; James, J.; Kapler, R.; Krolas, W.; Liang, J. Felix; Ma, Zhanwen; Matei, Catalin; Moazen, Brian; Nesaraja, Caroline D.; O'Malley, Patrick; Patterson, N.P.; Paulauskas, Stanley; Shapira, Dan; Shriner, J.F. Jr.; Sikora, M.; Sissom, D.J.; Smith, Michael Scott; Swan, T.P.; Thomas, J.S.; Wilson, Gemma L.

    2009-01-01

    Neutron transfer reactions were performed in inverse kinematics using radioactive ion beams of 132Sn, 130Sn, and 134Te and deuterated polyethylene targets. Preliminary results are presented. The Q-value spectra for 133Sn, 131Sn and 135Te reveal a number of previously unobserved peaks. The angular distributions are compatible with the expected lf7/2 nature of the ground state of 133Sn, and 2p3/2 for the 3.4 MeV state in 131Sn.

  19. Return to experience and initial wage level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.L.; Vejlin, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience. We use a Mincer-like wage model to non-parametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience. The relationshi...

  20. Complicating the Rhetoric: How Racial Construction Confounds Market-Based Reformers' Civil Rights Invocations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Laura E.

    2016-01-01

    Reformers today maintain the use of civil rights rhetoric when advocating for policies that address educational inequity. While continuing the legacy of earlier civil rights activists, the leaders invoking this rhetoric and the educational platforms they promote differ greatly from previous decades. Not only does this new crop of reformers differ…

  1. Previously unknown species of Aspergillus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier, M; Normand, A-C; Ranque, S

    2016-08-01

    The use of multi-locus DNA sequence analysis has led to the description of previously unknown 'cryptic' Aspergillus species, whereas classical morphology-based identification of Aspergillus remains limited to the section or species-complex level. The current literature highlights two main features concerning these 'cryptic' Aspergillus species. First, the prevalence of such species in clinical samples is relatively high compared with emergent filamentous fungal taxa such as Mucorales, Scedosporium or Fusarium. Second, it is clearly important to identify these species in the clinical laboratory because of the high frequency of antifungal drug-resistant isolates of such Aspergillus species. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) has recently been shown to enable the identification of filamentous fungi with an accuracy similar to that of DNA sequence-based methods. As MALDI-TOF MS is well suited to the routine clinical laboratory workflow, it facilitates the identification of these 'cryptic' Aspergillus species at the routine mycology bench. The rapid establishment of enhanced filamentous fungi identification facilities will lead to a better understanding of the epidemiology and clinical importance of these emerging Aspergillus species. Based on routine MALDI-TOF MS-based identification results, we provide original insights into the key interpretation issues of a positive Aspergillus culture from a clinical sample. Which ubiquitous species that are frequently isolated from air samples are rarely involved in human invasive disease? Can both the species and the type of biological sample indicate Aspergillus carriage, colonization or infection in a patient? Highly accurate routine filamentous fungi identification is central to enhance the understanding of these previously unknown Aspergillus species, with a vital impact on further improved patient care. Copyright © 2016 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and

  2. Do neighbours influence value-added-tax introduction? A spatial duration analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, Pavel; Lei, J.; Ligthart, J.E.

    The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but it can also be present in the baseline hazards and the dependent variables. A new spatial

  3. A PANEL-DATA SWITCHING REGRESSION-MODEL OF MOBILITY AND CAR OWNERSHIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MEURS, H

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a panel data model of car ownership and mobility. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for by including correlated random effects in the equations describing car ownership and mobility. A mass-points approach is adopted to control for unobserved

  4. 22 CFR 40.93 - Aliens unlawfully present after previous immigration violation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Aliens unlawfully present after previous... TO BOTH NONIMMIGRANTS AND IMMIGRANTS UNDER THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT, AS AMENDED Aliens Previously Removed § 40.93 Aliens unlawfully present after previous immigration violation. An alien described...

  5. A blind algorithm for recovering articulator positions from acoustics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogden, John E [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    MIMICRI is a signal-processing algorithm that has been shown to blindly infer and invert memoryless nonlinear functions of unobservable bandlimited signals, such as the mapping from the unobservable positions of the speech articulators to observable speech sounds. We review results of using MIMICRI on toy problems and on human speech data. We note that MIMICRI requires that the user specify two parameters: the dimensionality and pass-band of the unobservable signals. We show how to use cross-validation to help estimate the passband. An unexpected consequence of this work is that it helps separate signals with overlapping frequency bands.

  6. Peritoneal lymphomatosis confounded by prior history of colon cancer: a case report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yun Gi; Baek, Ji Yeon; Kim, Sun Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Park, Weon Seo; Kwon, Youngmee; Kim, Min Ju; Kang, Jeehoon; Lee, Joo Myung

    2011-01-01

    It is well known that carcinomas of the gastrointestinal tract are frequently associated with peritoneal carcinomatosis. In contrast to that entity extensive involvement of the peritoneal cavity with malignant lymphoma is rare. This is the first case reporting coexistence of peritoneal lymphomatosis and a previous history of colon cancer, which is a highly challenging clinical situation. If not aware of this unusual condition medical history, radiologic finding and laboratory data alone can lead to wrong diagnosis as in this case

  7. 18 CFR 154.302 - Previously submitted material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Previously submitted material. 154.302 Section 154.302 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... concurrently with the rate change filing. There must be furnished to the Director, Office of Energy Market...

  8. Subsequent pregnancy outcome after previous foetal death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijkamp, J. W.; Korteweg, F. J.; Holm, J. P.; Timmer, A.; Erwich, J. J. H. M.; van Pampus, M. G.

    Objective: A history of foetal death is a risk factor for complications and foetal death in subsequent pregnancies as most previous risk factors remain present and an underlying cause of death may recur. The purpose of this study was to evaluate subsequent pregnancy outcome after foetal death and to

  9. Measuring True Sales and Underreporting with Matched Firm-Level Survey and Tax-Office Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, F.; Oostendorp, R.H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses firm-level survey data matched with official tax records to estimate the unobserved true sales of formal firms in Mongolia. Taking into account firm-level incentives to comply with taxes and a production function technology linking unobserved true sales with observable firm-level

  10. Does health affect portfolio choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, David A; Smith, Paul A

    2010-12-01

    A number of recent studies find that poor health is empirically associated with a safer portfolio allocation. It is difficult to say, however, whether this relationship is truly causal. Both health status and portfolio choice are influenced by unobserved characteristics such as risk attitudes, impatience, information, and motivation, and these unobserved factors, if not adequately controlled for, can induce significant bias in the estimates of asset demand equations. Using the 1992-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how much of the connection between health and portfolio choice is causal and how much is due to the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects and correlated random effects models, we find that health does not appear to significantly affect portfolio choice among single households. For married households, we find a small effect (about 2-3 percentage points) from being in the lowest of five self-reported health categories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Local cluster of germ cell cancer in a cohort of male automotive workers in Germany not explained by previous or concurrent activities and exposures in farming and forestry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmeisser, N; Behrens, T; Mester, B; Gottlieb, A; Langner, I; Ahrens, W

    2011-02-01

    To examine whether exposures or activities in farming, forestry and related occupations explain the excess incidence of germ cell cancer (GCC) observed among male employees in one of the six car-manufacturing plants that is located in a geographic area where farming is frequent. A cohort based case-control study was conducted among workers in six car-manufacturing plants located in areas with different industrial structure. The study involved 188 cases of germ cell cancer identified through active retrieval in 38 hospitals and 1000 controls, drawn from administrative accounting files, individually matched by year of birth (± 2 years). Information regarding tasks and exposures and potential confounding variables were obtained by face-to-face or telephone interviews. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using a conditional logistic regression model adjusted for cryptorchidism and other potential confounders. In this case-control study 5.3% of cases and 6.3% of controls ever worked in agriculture or livestock farming. No increased risks were observed for working in agriculture (OR=0.8 95% CI: 0.4-1.6), livestock farming (OR=0.8 95% CI: 0.4-1.6) or for exposure to pesticides (OR=0.7 95% CI: 0.3-1.7), for exposure to fertilizers (OR=0.8 95% CI: 0.4-1.8) and disinfectants (OR=1.0 95% CI: 0.3-2.8). There were no statistically significant increases in risk associated with ever exposure to salt based wood protection agents (OR=2.3 95% CI: 0.6-9.1), working with plywood (OR=1.4 95% CI: 0.6-3.2), coated wood (OR=1.4 95% CI: 0.5-3.9) or working in forestry (OR=1.7 95% CI: 0.5-6.4). Lagging of exposures did not alter the results. The observed excess incidence in the cohort of automotive workers can be hardly explained by previous or concurrent work in farming or forestry. Because of the small numbers of subjects ever employed in farming the statistical power in assessing associations between agricultural work and agricultural exposures was limited

  12. Left ventricular asynergy score as an indicator of previous myocardial infarction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Backman, C.; Jacobsson, K.A.; Linderholm, H.; Osterman, G.

    1986-01-01

    Sixty-eight patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) i.e. a hisotry of angina of effort and/or previous 'possible infarction' were examined inter alia with ECG and cinecardioangiography. A system of scoring was designed which allowed a semiquantitative estimate of the left ventricular asynergy from cinecardioangiography - the left ventricular motion score (LVMS). The LVMS was associated with the presence of a previous myocardial infarction (MI), as indicated by the history and ECG findings. The ECG changes specific for a previous MI were associated with high LVMS values and unspecific or absent ECG changes with low LVMS values. Decision thresholds for ECG changes and asynergy in diagnosing a previous MI were evaluated by means of a ROC analysis. The accuracy of ECG in detecting a previous MI was slightly higher when asynergy indicated a 'true MI' than when autopsy result did so in a comparable group. Therefore the accuracy of asynergy (LVMS ≥ 1) in detecting a previous MI or myocardial fibrosis in patients with CHD should be at least comparable with that of autopsy (scar > 1 cm). (orig.)

  13. Increased Duration of Paid Maternity Leave Lowers Infant Mortality in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Quasi-Experimental Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arijit Nandi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Maternity leave reduces neonatal and infant mortality rates in high-income countries. However, the impact of maternity leave on infant health has not been rigorously evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. In this study, we utilized a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate whether paid maternity leave policies affect infant mortality in LMICs.We used birth history data collected via the Demographic and Health Surveys to assemble a panel of approximately 300,000 live births in 20 countries from 2000 to 2008; these observational data were merged with longitudinal information on the duration of paid maternity leave provided by each country. We estimated the effect of an increase in maternity leave in the prior year on the probability of infant (<1 y, neonatal (<28 d, and post-neonatal (between 28 d and 1 y after birth mortality. Fixed effects for country and year were included to control for, respectively, unobserved time-invariant confounders that varied across countries and temporal trends in mortality that were shared across countries. Average rates of infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality over the study period were 55.2, 30.7, and 23.0 per 1,000 live births, respectively. Each additional month of paid maternity was associated with 7.9 fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI 3.7, 12.0, reflecting a 13% relative reduction. Reductions in infant mortality associated with increases in the duration of paid maternity leave were concentrated in the post-neonatal period. Estimates were robust to adjustment for individual, household, and country-level characteristics, although there may be residual confounding by unmeasured time-varying confounders, such as coincident policy changes.More generous paid maternity leave policies represent a potential instrument for facilitating early-life interventions and reducing infant mortality in LMICs and warrant further discussion in the post-2015 sustainable development agenda

  14. Reasoning with Previous Decisions: Beyond the Doctrine of Precedent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Komárek, Jan

    2013-01-01

    in different jurisdictions use previous judicial decisions in their argument, we need to move beyond the concept of precedent to a wider notion, which would embrace practices and theories in legal systems outside the Common law tradition. This article presents the concept of ‘reasoning with previous decisions...... law method’, but they are no less rational and intellectually sophisticated. The reason for the rather conceited attitude of some comparatists is in the dominance of the common law paradigm of precedent and the accompanying ‘case law method’. If we want to understand how courts and lawyers......’ as such an alternative and develops its basic models. The article first points out several shortcomings inherent in limiting the inquiry into reasoning with previous decisions by the common law paradigm (1). On the basis of numerous examples provided in section (1), I will present two basic models of reasoning...

  15. On the Tengiz petroleum deposit previous study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nysangaliev, A.N.; Kuspangaliev, T.K.

    1997-01-01

    Tengiz petroleum deposit previous study is described. Some consideration about structure of productive formation, specific characteristic properties of petroleum-bearing collectors are presented. Recommendation on their detail study and using of experience on exploration and development of petroleum deposit which have analogy on most important geological and industrial parameters are given. (author)

  16. Evidence of a new state in 11Be observed in the 11Li β-decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madurga, M.; Borge, M.J.G.; Alcorta, M.; Fraile, L.M.; Fynbo, H.O.U.; Jonson, B.; Kirsebom, O.; Martinez-Pinedo, G.; Nilsson, T.; Nyman, G.; Perea, A.; Poves, A.; Riisager, K.; Tengblad, O.; Tengborn, E.; Van der Walle, J.

    2009-01-01

    Coincidences between charged particles emitted in the β-decay of 11 Li were observed using highly segmented detectors. The breakup channels involving three particles were studied in full kinematics allowing for the reconstruction of the excitation energy of the 11 Be states participating in the decay. In particular, the contribution of a previously unobserved state at 16.3 MeV in 11 Be has been identified selecting the α+ 7 He→α+ 6 He+n channel. The angular correlations between the α particle and the center of mass of the 6 He + n system favors spin and parity assignment of 3/2 - for this state as well as for the previously known state at 18 MeV.

  17. Randomized trials, generalizability, and meta-analysis: Graphical insights for binary outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kramer Barnett S

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Randomized trials stochastically answer the question. "What would be the effect of treatment on outcome if one turned back the clock and switched treatments in the given population?" Generalizations to other subjects are reliable only if the particular trial is performed on a random sample of the target population. By considering an unobserved binary variable, we graphically investigate how randomized trials can also stochastically answer the question, "What would be the effect of treatment on outcome in a population with a possibly different distribution of an unobserved binary baseline variable that does not interact with treatment in its effect on outcome?" Method For three different outcome measures, absolute difference (DIF, relative risk (RR, and odds ratio (OR, we constructed a modified BK-Plot under the assumption that treatment has the same effect on outcome if either all or no subjects had a given level of the unobserved binary variable. (A BK-Plot shows the effect of an unobserved binary covariate on a binary outcome in two treatment groups; it was originally developed to explain Simpsons's paradox. Results For DIF and RR, but not OR, the BK-Plot shows that the estimated treatment effect is invariant to the fraction of subjects with an unobserved binary variable at a given level. Conclusion The BK-Plot provides a simple method to understand generalizability in randomized trials. Meta-analyses of randomized trials with a binary outcome that are based on DIF or RR, but not OR, will avoid bias from an unobserved covariate that does not interact with treatment in its effect on outcome.

  18. Trade-facilitated technology spillovers in energy productivity convergence processes across EU countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Jun; Baylis, Kathy; Mulder, Peter

    2015-01-01

    This empirical paper tests for trade-facilitated spillovers in the convergence of energy productivity across 16 European Union (EU) countries from 1995 to 2005. One might anticipate that by inducing specialization, trade limits the potential for convergence in energy productivity. Conversely, by inducing competition and knowledge diffusion, trade may spur sectors to greater energy productivity. Unlike most previous work on convergence, we explain productivity dynamics from cross-country interactions at a detailed sector level and apply a spatial panel data approach to explicitly account for trade-flow related spatial effects in the convergence analysis. Our study confirms the existence of convergence in manufacturing energy productivity, caused by efficiency improvements in lagging countries, while undermined by increasing international differences in sector structure. Further, we find that trade flows explain 30 to 40% of the unobserved variation in energy productivity. Trade continues to explain the unobserved variation in energy productivity even after accounting for geographic proximity. Last, we find that those countries and sectors with higher dependence on trade both have higher energy productivity growth and a higher rate of convergence, further implying that trade can enhance energy productivity. Thus, unlike concerns that trade may spur a ‘race to the bottom’, we find that promoting trade may help stimulate energy efficiency improvements across countries. - Highlights: • We test for trade-facilitated spillovers in cross-country energy productivity convergence. • We use a spatial panel-data approach and data for 16 European Union countries. • Efficiency improvements in lagging countries cause energy productivity convergence. • Trade flows explain 30 to 40% of unobserved variation in energy productivity. • Higher dependence on trade means higher rates of energy productivity growth

  19. Should previous mammograms be digitised in the transition to digital mammography?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor-Phillips, S.; Gale, A.G.; Wallis, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Breast screening specificity is improved if previous mammograms are available, which presents a challenge when converting to digital mammography. Two display options were investigated: mounting previous film mammograms on a multiviewer adjacent to the workstation, or digitising them for soft copy display. Eight qualified screen readers were videotaped undertaking routine screen reading for two 45-min sessions in each scenario. Analysis of gross eye and head movements showed that when digitised, previous mammograms were examined a greater number of times per case (p=0.03), due to a combination of being used in 19% more cases (p=0.04) and where used, looked at a greater number of times (28% increase, p=0.04). Digitising previous mammograms reduced both the average time taken per case by 18% (p=0.04) and the participants' perceptions of workload (p < 0.05). Digitising previous analogue mammograms may be advantageous, in particular in increasing their level of use. (orig.)

  20. External radiation dose and cancer mortality among French nuclear workers: considering potential confounding by internal radiation exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, L; Laurent, O; Samson, E; Caër-Lorho, S; Laroche, P; Le Guen, B; Laurier, D; Leuraud, K

    2016-11-01

    French nuclear workers have detailed records of their occupational exposure to external radiation that have been used to examine associations with subsequent cancer mortality. However, some workers were also exposed to internal contamination by radionuclides. This study aims to assess the potential for bias due to confounding by internal contamination of estimates of associations between external radiation exposure and cancer mortality. A cohort of 59,004 workers employed for at least 1 year between 1950 and 1994 by CEA (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique), AREVA NC, or EDF (Electricité de France) and badge-monitored for external radiation exposure were followed through 2004 to assess vital status and cause of death. A flag based on a workstation-exposure matrix defined four levels of potential for internal contamination. Standardized mortality ratios were assessed for each level of the internal contamination indicator. Poisson regression was used to quantify associations between external radiation exposure and cancer mortality, adjusting for potential internal contamination. For solid cancer, the mortality deficit tended to decrease as the levels of potential for internal contamination increased. For solid cancer and leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, adjusting the dose-response analysis on the internal contamination indicator did not markedly change the excess relative risk per Sievert of external radiation dose. This study suggests that in this cohort, neglecting information on internal dosimetry while studying the association between external dose and cancer mortality does not generate a substantial bias. To investigate more specifically the health effects of internal contamination, an effort is underway to estimate organ doses due to internal contamination.

  1. External radiation dose and cancer mortality among French nuclear workers. Considering potential confounding by internal radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fournier, L.; Laurent, O.; Samson, E.; Caer-Lorho, S.; Laurier, D.; Leuraud, K. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay aux Roses (France). Ionizing Radiation Epidemiology Lab.; Laroche, P. [AREVA, Paris (France); Le Guen, B. [EDF, Saint Denis (France)

    2016-11-15

    French nuclear workers have detailed records of their occupational exposure to external radiation that have been used to examine associations with subsequent cancer mortality. However, some workers were also exposed to internal contamination by radionuclides. This study aims to assess the potential for bias due to confounding by internal contamination of estimates of associations between external radiation exposure and cancer mortality. A cohort of 59,004 workers employed for at least 1 year between 1950 and 1994 by CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique), AREVA NC, or EDF (Electricite de France) and badge-monitored for external radiation exposure were followed through 2004 to assess vital status and cause of death. A flag based on a workstation-exposure matrix defined four levels of potential for internal contamination. Standardized mortality ratios were assessed for each level of the internal contamination indicator. Poisson regression was used to quantify associations between external radiation exposure and cancer mortality, adjusting for potential internal contamination. For solid cancer, the mortality deficit tended to decrease as the levels of potential for internal contamination increased. For solid cancer and leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, adjusting the dose-response analysis on the internal contamination indicator did not markedly change the excess relative risk per Sievert of external radiation dose. This study suggests that in this cohort, neglecting information on internal dosimetry while studying the association between external dose and cancer mortality does not generate a substantial bias. To investigate more specifically the health effects of internal contamination, an effort is underway to estimate organ doses due to internal contamination.

  2. Patellar calcar: MRI appearance of a previously undescribed anatomical entity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, Mark S.; Tiegs-Heiden, Christin A.; Stuart, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    The femoral calcar is a constant anatomical structure within the proximal femur representing a condensation of bone trabeculae. It is our impression that a similar structure is present within the patella. The purpose of this retrospective study was to define the prevalence, appearance, location, and configuration of the patellar calcar on MRI examinations. One hundred consecutive unenhanced knee MRIs were retrospectively reviewed by two readers who were blinded to the clinical indication. The patellar calcar was defined as a dark signaling, linear or curvilinear structure subjacent to the patellar articular surface. If present, the patellar calcar was assigned to a ''well seen,'' ''moderately well seen,'' or ''faintly seen'' category. Location of the calcar within the patella, orientation, configuration, and thickness were recorded. Confounding variables, such as marrow edema, patellar chondromalacia, bipartite patella, or postoperative changes were also recorded. The patellar calcar was visualized in 81 out of 100 (81 %) MRIs. When detected, the calcar was well seen in 20 out of 81 (25 %), moderately well seen in 35 out of 81 (43 %), and faintly seen in 26 out of 81 (32 %). The anteroposterior width of the calcar measured at its thickest segment was: 1 mm in 10 out of 81 (12 %). The patellar calcar was seen in the majority of knee MRIs and had a consistent imaging appearance. The calcar may be obscured by degenerative arthrosis of the patella and rarely may mimic patellar stress fracture or osteochondritis dissecans. Radiologists and clinicians should be familiar with this normal anatomical structure. (orig.)

  3. 14 CFR 121.406 - Credit for previous CRM/DRM training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit for previous CRM/DRM training. 121... previous CRM/DRM training. (a) For flightcrew members, the Administrator may credit CRM training received before March 19, 1998 toward all or part of the initial ground CRM training required by § 121.419. (b...

  4. Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: study designs that may help

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall, M. R.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site–fidelity to the previous year’s territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site–fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area, the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture–mark–recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life–history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi–year capture–recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter–annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more “emigrants” are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01. However, given observed inter–annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large

  5. Challenging previous conceptions of vegetarianism and eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisak, B; Peterson, R D; Tantleff-Dunn, S; Molnar, J M

    2006-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to replicate and expand upon previous research that has examined the potential association between vegetarianism and disordered eating. Limitations of previous research studies are addressed, including possible low reliability of measures of eating pathology within vegetarian samples, use of only a few dietary restraint measures, and a paucity of research examining potential differences in body image and food choice motives of vegetarians versus nonvegetarians. Two hundred and fifty-six college students completed a number of measures of eating pathology and body image, and a food choice motives questionnaire. Interestingly, no significant differences were found between vegetarians and nonvegetarians in measures of eating pathology or body image. However, significant differences in food choice motives were found. Implications for both researchers and clinicians are discussed.

  6. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  7. The association between retirement and emotional well-being: does prior work-family conflict matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coursolle, Kathryn M; Sweeney, Megan M; Raymo, James M; Ho, Jeong-Hwa

    2010-09-01

    This study investigates whether the association between retirement and emotional well-being depends on prior experience of work-family conflict. We use data from the 1993 and 2004 waves of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to estimate linear regression models of 2 dimensions of emotional well-being-depressive symptoms and positive psychological functioning. We also use fixed effects models to investigate whether key findings persist after controlling for stable, but unobserved, characteristics of individuals. Retirement is associated with relatively fewer depressive symptoms among individuals who reported high levels of work stress interfering with family life in late midlife. We find suggestive evidence of a similar association with respect to positive psychological functioning after accounting for unobserved characteristics of individuals. Among individuals reporting high levels of family stress spillover into work life at late midlife, our results suggest that retirement tends to be associated with better emotional well-being among men than among women. Retirement may come more as a relief than as a stressor for individuals previously experiencing high levels of work demands interfering with family life. However, particularly among women, retirement may not relieve the burdens of family life stressors.

  8. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  9. Ligand-induced expansion of the S1' site in the anthrax toxin lethal factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maize, Kimberly M.; Kurbanov, Elbek K.; Johnson, Rodney L.; Amin, Elizabeth Ambrose; Finzel, Barry C. (UMM)

    2016-07-05

    The Bacillus anthracis lethal factor (LF) is one component of a tripartite exotoxin partly responsible for persistent anthrax cytotoxicity after initial bacterial infection. Inhibitors of the zinc metalloproteinase have been investigated as potential therapeutic agents, but LF is a challenging target because inhibitors lack sufficient selectivity or possess poor pharmaceutical properties. These structural studies reveal an alternate conformation of the enzyme, induced upon binding of specific inhibitors, that opens a previously unobserved deep pocket termed S1'* which might afford new opportunities to design selective inhibitors that target this subsite.

  10. Rotationally resolved photodetachment spectrum of OH{sup -}, exposed with velocity-map imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, S T; Cavanagh, S J; Lewis, B R, E-mail: Stephen.Gibson@anu.edu.a, E-mail: Steven.Cavanagh@anu.edu.a [Research School of Physics and Engineering, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2009-11-01

    The photodetachment spectrum of OH{sup -} has been measured using velocity-map imaging for the detection of photoelectrons. The relative electron kinetic-energy resolution, determined to be ({Delta}E/E) = 0.5%, resolves individual rotational transitions, including R3(0) that defines the electron affinity. Previously unobserved, N-, O-, S-, T-branch transitions are also revealed. The angular anisotropy parameters in general exhibit values consistent with electron detachment from O{sup -}, {beta} {approx} -0.8, except for the S, T branches which are significantly more isotropic, with {beta} {approx} -0.4.

  11. Response to health insurance by previously uninsured rural children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilford, J M; Robbins, J M; Shema, S J; Farmer, F L

    1999-08-01

    To examine the healthcare utilization and costs of previously uninsured rural children. Four years of claims data from a school-based health insurance program located in the Mississippi Delta. All children who were not Medicaid-eligible or were uninsured, were eligible for limited benefits under the program. The 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) was used to compare utilization of services. The study represents a natural experiment in the provision of insurance benefits to a previously uninsured population. Premiums for the claims cost were set with little or no information on expected use of services. Claims from the insurer were used to form a panel data set. Mixed model logistic and linear regressions were estimated to determine the response to insurance for several categories of health services. The use of services increased over time and approached the level of utilization in the NMES. Conditional medical expenditures also increased over time. Actuarial estimates of claims cost greatly exceeded actual claims cost. The provision of a limited medical, dental, and optical benefit package cost approximately $20-$24 per member per month in claims paid. An important uncertainty in providing health insurance to previously uninsured populations is whether a pent-up demand exists for health services. Evidence of a pent-up demand for medical services was not supported in this study of rural school-age children. States considering partnerships with private insurers to implement the State Children's Health Insurance Program could lower premium costs by assembling basic data on previously uninsured children.

  12. Radiation Exposure During Uterine Fibroid Embolization (UFE): A Confounder-Controlled Comparison Between a State-of-the-Art Angiography Unit and a Conventional Angiography unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Christof-Matthias; Voigt, Wieland; Klapp Oliger, Michel; Schlett, Christopher L; Erpenbach, Stefan; Thomas, Katrina; Hatopp, Andreas; Kurz, Patrick; Richter, Goetz M

    2018-03-01

     To compare radiation exposure of a state-of-the-art and a conventional angiography unit in patients undergoing uterine fibroid embolization (UFE).  Between January 2009 and December 2016, 286 patients underwent UFE in our Interdisciplinary Fibroid Center. The inclusion criteria for this retrospective analysis were first-time transarterial embolization for symptomatic fibroids, bilateral embolization, procedures applying a state-of-the-art (Group 1) or a conventional angiography unit (Group 2), and bilateral technical success with an adequate embolization endpoint after the injection of microspheres. Study endpoints included radiation exposure, major complications, morphological success (MRI), and clinical success (questionnaire on quality-of-life). Propensity score matching controlled for confounders.  The inclusion criteria were met by 58 (Group 1) and 177 (Group 2) patients. After propensity score matching, there was no significant difference between Group 1 (n = 46) and Group 2 (n = 92) regarding age, body-mass index, volume of the dominant fibroid and the uterus, fluoroscopy time, and amount of embolic agent (p ≥ 0.10 each). The dose-area product was significantly lower in Group 1 than in Group 2 (1159.0 cGycm 2 vs. 3123.5 cGycm 2 ; p  0.99). There were no significant differences between both groups regarding shrinkage of the dominant fibroid and the uterus and no relevant differences regarding patient-reported quality-of-life.  A state-of-the-art angiography unit has the potential to reduce radiation exposure in patients undergoing UFE without increasing the risk of major complications and with comparably high morphological and clinical success.   · A state-of-the-art angiography unit potentially reduces radiation exposure in patients undergoing UFE.. · Reduced radiation exposure does not seem to negatively influence the rate of major complications.. · Reduced exposure does not seem to negatively affect morphological and clinical

  13. Phosphate binder use and mortality among hemodialysis patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS): evaluation of possible confounding by nutritional status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Antonio Alberto; Tong, Lin; Thumma, Jyothi; Li, Yun; Fuller, Douglas S; Morgenstern, Hal; Bommer, Jürgen; Kerr, Peter G; Tentori, Francesca; Akiba, Takashi; Gillespie, Brenda W; Robinson, Bruce M; Port, Friedrich K; Pisoni, Ronald L

    2012-07-01

    -sectional; dietary restriction was not assessed; observational design limits causal inference due to possible residual confounding. Longer survival and better nutritional status were observed for maintenance HD patients prescribed phosphate binders and in facilities with a greater percentage of phosphate binder prescription. Understanding the mechanisms for explaining this effect and ruling out possible residual confounding require additional research. Copyright © 2012 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Abiraterone in metastatic prostate cancer without previous chemotherapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ryan, Charles J.; Smith, Matthew R.; de Bono, Johann S.; Molina, Arturo; Logothetis, Christopher J.; de Souza, Paul; Fizazi, Karim; Mainwaring, Paul; Piulats, Josep M.; Ng, Siobhan; Carles, Joan; Mulders, Peter F. A.; Basch, Ethan; Small, Eric J.; Saad, Fred; Schrijvers, Dirk; van Poppel, Hendrik; Mukherjee, Som D.; Suttmann, Henrik; Gerritsen, Winald R.; Flaig, Thomas W.; George, Daniel J.; Yu, Evan Y.; Efstathiou, Eleni; Pantuck, Allan; Winquist, Eric; Higano, Celestia S.; Taplin, Mary-Ellen; Park, Youn; Kheoh, Thian; Griffin, Thomas; Scher, Howard I.; Rathkopf, Dana E.; Boyce, A.; Costello, A.; Davis, I.; Ganju, V.; Horvath, L.; Lynch, R.; Marx, G.; Parnis, F.; Shapiro, J.; Singhal, N.; Slancar, M.; van Hazel, G.; Wong, S.; Yip, D.; Carpentier, P.; Luyten, D.; de Reijke, T.

    2013-01-01

    Abiraterone acetate, an androgen biosynthesis inhibitor, improves overall survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer after chemotherapy. We evaluated this agent in patients who had not received previous chemotherapy. In this double-blind study, we randomly assigned

  15. Squamous cell carcinoma arising in previously burned or irradiated skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, M.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Broadwater, J.R.; Netscher, D.T.; Ames, F.C.

    1989-01-01

    Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) arising in previously burned or irradiated skin was reviewed in 66 patients treated between 1944 and 1986. Healing of the initial injury was complicated in 70% of patients. Mean interval from initial injury to diagnosis of SCC was 37 years. The overwhelming majority of patients presented with a chronic intractable ulcer in previously injured skin. The regional relapse rate after surgical excision was very high, 58% of all patients. Predominant patterns of recurrence were in local skin and regional lymph nodes (93% of recurrences). Survival rates at 5, 10, and 20 years were 52%, 34%, and 23%, respectively. Five-year survival rates in previously burned and irradiated patients were not significantly different (53% and 50%, respectively). This review, one of the largest reported series, better defines SCC arising in previously burned or irradiated skin as a locally aggressive disease that is distinct from SCC arising in sunlight-damaged skin. An increased awareness of the significance of chronic ulceration in scar tissue may allow earlier diagnosis. Regional disease control and survival depend on surgical resection of all known disease and may require radical lymph node dissection or amputation

  16. Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiyuki eKaneko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target.

  17. Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Yoshiyuki; Sakai, Katsuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target. PMID:25999844

  18. The effect of polytrauma as a possible confounder in the outcome of monotraumatic vs polytraumatic paraplegic patients: a clinical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putz, C; Schuld, C; Gantz, S; Grieser, T; Akbar, M; Moradi, B; Wiedenhöfer, B; Fürstenberg, C H; Gerner, H J; Rupp, R

    2011-06-01

    Clinical cohort study. To evaluate if the impact of the severity of the trauma as a possible confounding factor influences the neurological and functional recovery in paraplegia during the course of a 6-month follow-up period after injury. Spinal Cord Injury Center, Heidelberg University Hospital, Germany. A retrospective monocentric analysis, from 2002 to 2008, of the Heidelberg European Multicenter Study about spinal cord injury database was performed. We included 31 paraplegic patients (neurological level T1-T12) who were assigned either to a monotrauma (polytraumaschluessel (PTS) 1) or to a polytrauma (PTS≥2) group. The American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale, lower extremity motor score, pin prick, light touch and the spinal cord independence measure (SCIM) were obtained at five distinct time points after trauma. Data were analyzed using Mann-Whitney U-test (αpressure sores between 3 and 6 months (P=0.031). The mean length of primary rehabilitation in the polytrauma group was 5.5 vs 3.6 months in monotrauma. The prognosis of polytraumatic paraplegics in terms of neurological recovery is not inferior to those with monotrauma. Multiple-injured patients need a prolonged hospital stay to reach the functional outcome of monotraumatic patients.

  19. Sodium Valproate, a Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor, Is Associated With Reduced Stroke Risk After Previous Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookes, Rebecca L.; Crichton, Siobhan; Wolfe, Charles D.A.; Yi, Qilong; Li, Linxin; Hankey, Graeme J.; Rothwell, Peter M.

    2018-01-01

    Background and Purpose— A variant in the histone deacetylase 9 (HDAC9) gene is associated with large artery stroke. Therefore, inhibiting HDAC9 might offer a novel secondary preventative treatment for ischemic stroke. The antiepileptic drug sodium valproate (SVA) is a nonspecific inhibitor of HDAC9. We tested whether SVA therapy given after ischemic stroke was associated with reduced recurrent stroke rate. Methods— Data were pooled from 3 prospective studies recruiting patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and long-term follow-up: the South London Stroke Register, The Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study, and the Oxford Vascular Study. Patients receiving SVA were compared with patients who received antiepileptic drugs other than SVA using survival analysis and Cox Regression. Results— A total of 11 949 patients with confirmed ischemic event were included. Recurrent stroke rate was lower in patient taking SVA (17 of 168) than other antiepileptic drugs (105 of 530; log-rank survival analysis P=0.002). On Cox regression, controlling for potential cofounders, SVA remained associated with reduced stroke (hazard ratio=0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.7; P=0.002). A similar result was obtained when patients taking SVA were compared with all cases not taking SVA (Cox regression, hazard ratio=0.47; 95% confidence interval: 0.29–0.77; P=0.003). Conclusions— These results suggest that exposure to SVA, an inhibitor of HDAC, may be associated with a lower recurrent stroke risk although we cannot exclude residual confounding in this study design. This supports the hypothesis that HDAC9 is important in the ischemic stroke pathogenesis and that its inhibition, by SVA or a more specific HDAC9 inhibitor, is worthy of evaluation as a treatment to prevent recurrent ischemic stroke. PMID:29247141

  20. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance in adults with previous cardiovascular surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Knobelsdorff-Brenkenhoff, Florian; Trauzeddel, Ralf Felix; Schulz-Menger, Jeanette

    2014-03-01

    Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is a versatile non-invasive imaging modality that serves a broad spectrum of indications in clinical cardiology and has proven evidence. Most of the numerous applications are appropriate in patients with previous cardiovascular surgery in the same manner as in non-surgical subjects. However, some specifics have to be considered. This review article is intended to provide information about the application of CMR in adults with previous cardiovascular surgery. In particular, the two main scenarios, i.e. following coronary artery bypass surgery and following heart valve surgery, are highlighted. Furthermore, several pictorial descriptions of other potential indications for CMR after cardiovascular surgery are given.

  1. Nonhomogeneous Poisson process with nonparametric frailty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slimacek, Vaclav; Lindqvist, Bo Henry

    2016-01-01

    The failure processes of heterogeneous repairable systems are often modeled by non-homogeneous Poisson processes. The common way to describe an unobserved heterogeneity between systems is to multiply the basic rate of occurrence of failures by a random variable (a so-called frailty) having a specified parametric distribution. Since the frailty is unobservable, the choice of its distribution is a problematic part of using these models, as are often the numerical computations needed in the estimation of these models. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a method for estimation of the parameters of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with unobserved heterogeneity which does not require parametric assumptions about the heterogeneity and which avoids the frequently encountered numerical problems associated with the standard models for unobserved heterogeneity. The introduced method is illustrated on an example involving the power law process, and is compared to the standard gamma frailty model and to the classical model without unobserved heterogeneity. The derived results are confirmed in a simulation study which also reveals several not commonly known properties of the gamma frailty model and the classical model, and on a real life example. - Highlights: • A new method for estimation of a NHPP with frailty is introduced. • Introduced method does not require parametric assumptions about frailty. • The approach is illustrated on an example with the power law process. • The method is compared to the gamma frailty model and to the model without frailty.

  2. Evaluating the inverse reasoning account of object discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Christopher D; Kemp, Charles

    2015-06-01

    People routinely make inferences about unobserved objects. A hotel guest with welts on his arms, for example, will often worry about bed bugs. The discovery of unobserved objects almost always involves a backward inference from some observed effects (e.g., welts) to unobserved causes (e.g., bed bugs). The inverse reasoning account, which is typically formalized as Bayesian inference, posits that the strength of a backward inference is closely connected to the strength of the corresponding forward inference from the unobserved causes to the observed effects. We evaluated the inverse reasoning account of object discovery in three experiments where participants were asked to discover the unobserved "attractors" and "repellers" that controlled a "particle" moving within an arena. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that participants often failed to provide the best explanations for various particle motions, even when the best explanations were simple and when participants enthusiastically endorsed these explanations when presented with them. This failure demonstrates that object discovery is critically dependent on the processes that support hypothesis generation-processes that the inverse reasoning account does not explain. Experiment 3 demonstrated that people sometimes generate explanations that are invalid even according to their own forward inferences, suggesting that the psychological processes that support forward and backward inference are less intertwined than the inverse reasoning account suggests. The experimental findings support an alternative account of object discovery in which people rely on heuristics to generate possible explanations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A Bayesian Analysis of Unobserved Component Models Using Ox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles S. Bos

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article details a Bayesian analysis of the Nile river flow data, using a similar state space model as other articles in this volume. For this data set, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling algorithms are implemented in the programming language Ox. These Markov chain Monte Carlo methods only provide output conditioned upon the full data set. For filtered output, conditioning only on past observations, the particle filter is introduced. The sampling methods are flexible, and this advantage is used to extend the model to incorporate a stochastic volatility process. The volatility changes both in the Nile data and also in daily S&P 500 return data are investigated. The posterior density of parameters and states is found to provide information on which elements of the model are easily identifiable, and which elements are estimated with less precision.

  4. Accounting for unobserved management in renewable energy and growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menegaki, Angeliki N.

    2013-01-01

    The paper employs a management random parameters frontier stochastic frontier and a simple frontier stochastic model to benchmark European countries according to their management efficiency in growth and renewable energy development. The results come from an empirical application of a panel with 31 European countries over a 14 year old period using a translog type stochastic frontier production function. In particular the paper focuses on results from a management random coefficients model and compares results with the conventional stochastic frontier model with inputs such as renewable energy, fossil fuel energy, employment and capital. The results suggest that the interaction of renewable energy with management affects growth in Europe and that the technical efficiency estimated by the management model is by 6.05% higher than the one produced by the simple stochastic frontier model. - Highlights: • Application of management random coefficients frontier model in growth-renewable energy nexus. • Comparison with the simple frontier efficiency model. • Technical efficiency is higher by 6.05% in the management model

  5. Previously unreported abnormalities in Wolfram Syndrome Type 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akturk, Halis Kaan; Yasa, Seda

    2017-01-01

    Wolfram syndrome (WFS) is a rare autosomal recessive disease with non-autoimmune childhood onset insulin dependent diabetes and optic atrophy. WFS type 2 (WFS2) differs from WFS type 1 (WFS1) with upper intestinal ulcers, bleeding tendency and the lack ofdiabetes insipidus. Li-fespan is short due to related comorbidities. Only a few familieshave been reported with this syndrome with the CISD2 mutation. Here we report two siblings with a clinical diagnosis of WFS2, previously misdiagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus and diabetic retinopathy-related blindness. We report possible additional clinical and laboratory findings that have not been pre-viously reported, such as asymptomatic hypoparathyroidism, osteomalacia, growth hormone (GH) deficiency and hepatomegaly. Even though not a requirement for the diagnosis of WFS2 currently, our case series confirm hypogonadotropic hypogonadism to be also a feature of this syndrome, as reported before. © Polish Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology.

  6. Outcome Of Pregnancy Following A Previous Lower Segment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A previous ceasarean section is an important variable that influences patient management in subsequent pregnancies. A trial of vaginal delivery in such patients is a feasible alternative to a secondary section, thus aiding to reduce the ceasarean section rate and its associated co-morbidities. Objective: To ...

  7. Cryptococcal meningitis in a previously healthy child | Chimowa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An 8-year-old previously healthy female presented with a 3 weeks history of headache, neck stiffness, deafness, fever and vomiting and was diagnosed with cryptococcal meningitis. She had documented hearing loss and was referred to tertiary-level care after treatment with fluconazole did not improve her neurological ...

  8. 24 CFR 1710.552 - Previously accepted state filings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... of Substantially Equivalent State Law § 1710.552 Previously accepted state filings. (a) Materials... and contracts or agreements contain notice of purchaser's revocation rights. In addition see § 1715.15..., unless the developer is obligated to do so in the contract. (b) If any such filing becomes inactive or...

  9. Sudden unexpected death in children with a previously diagnosed cardiovascular disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polderman, Florens N.; Cohen, Joeri; Blom, Nico A.; Delhaas, Tammo; Helbing, Wim A.; Lam, Jan; Sobotka-Plojhar, Marta A.; Temmerman, Arno M.; Sreeram, Narayanswani

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is known that children with previously diagnosed heart defects die suddenly. The causes of death are often unknown. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify all infants and children within the Netherlands with previously diagnosed heart disease who had a sudden unexpected death

  10. Sudden unexpected death in children with a previously diagnosed cardiovascular disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polderman, F.N.; Cohen, Joeri; Blom, N.A.; Delhaas, T.; Helbing, W.A.; Lam, J.; Sobotka-Plojhar, M.A.; Temmerman, Arno M.; Sreeram, N.

    2004-01-01

    Background: It is known that children with previously diagnosed heart defects die suddenly. The causes of death are often unknown. Objective: The aim of the study was to identify all infants and children within the Netherlands with previously diagnosed heart disease who had a sudden unexpected death

  11. 75 FR 20933 - Airworthiness Directives; Arrow Falcon Exporters, Inc. (previously Utah State University...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-22

    ... Hawkins and Powers Aviation, Inc.); S.M.&T. Aircraft (previously US Helicopters, Inc., UNC Helicopter, Inc... Joaquin Helicopters (previously Hawkins and Powers Aviation, Inc.); S.M.&T. Aircraft (previously US...

  12. 40 CFR 152.93 - Citation of a previously submitted valid study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Data Submitters' Rights § 152.93 Citation of a previously submitted valid study. An applicant may demonstrate compliance for a data requirement by citing a valid study previously submitted to the Agency. The... the original data submitter, the applicant may cite the study only in accordance with paragraphs (b...

  13. Investigation of previously derived Hyades, Coma, and M67 reddenings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, B.J.

    1980-01-01

    New Hyades polarimetry and field star photometry have been obtained to check the Hyades reddening, which was found to be nonzero in a previous paper. The new Hyades polarimetry implies essentially zero reddening; this is also true of polarimetry published by Behr (which was incorrectly interpreted in the previous paper). Four photometric techniques which are presumed to be insensitive to blanketing are used to compare the Hyades to nearby field stars; these four techniques also yield essentially zero reddening. When all of these results are combined with others which the author has previously published and a simultaneous solution for the Hyades, Coma, and M67 reddenings is made, the results are E (B-V) =3 +- 2 (sigma) mmag, -1 +- 3 (sigma) mmag, and 46 +- 6 (sigma) mmag, respectively. No support for a nonzero Hyades reddening is offered by the new results. When the newly obtained reddenings for the Hyades, Coma, and M67 are compared with results from techniques given by Crawford and by users of the David Dunlap Observatory photometric system, no differences between the new and other reddenings are found which are larger than about 2 sigma. The author had previously found that the M67 main-sequence stars have about the same blanketing as that of Coma and less blanketing than the Hyades; this conclusion is essentially unchanged by the revised reddenings

  14. Social network effects in contraceptive behavior among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Mir M; Amialchuk, Aliaksandr; Dwyer, Debra S

    2011-10-01

    To quantify empirically the role of peer social networks in contraceptive behavior among adolescents. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents, the authors use a multivariate structural model with school-level fixed effects to account for the problems of contextual effects, correlated effects, and peer selection to reduce the potential impact of biases from the estimates of peer influence. The peer group measures are drawn not only from the nominations of close friends but also from classmates. Contraception use among the peer groups was constructed using the peers' own reports of their contraceptive behavior. Controlling for parental characteristics and other demographic variables, the authors find that a 10% increase in the proportion of classmates who use contraception increases the likelihood of individual contraception use by approximately 5%. They also find evidence that the influence of close friends diminishes after accounting for unobserved environmental confounders. The findings of this study support the findings in the literature that peer effects are important determinants of contraception use even after controlling for potential biases in the data. Effective policy aimed at increasing contraception use among adolescents should consider these peer effects.

  15. Process cells dismantling of EUREX pant: previous activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gili, M.

    1998-01-01

    In the '98-'99 period some process cells of the EUREX pant will be dismantled, in order to place there the liquid wastes conditioning plant 'CORA'. This report resumes the previous activities (plant rinsing campaigns and inactive Cell 014 dismantling), run in the past three years and the drawn experience [it

  16. 75 FR 39143 - Airworthiness Directives; Arrow Falcon Exporters, Inc. (previously Utah State University); AST...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-08

    ... (previously Precision Helicopters, LLC); Robinson Air Crane, Inc.; San Joaquin Helicopters (previously Hawkins... (Previously Hawkins & Powers Aviation); S.M. &T. Aircraft (Previously Us Helicopter Inc., UNC Helicopters, Inc...

  17. Inference in randomized trials with death and missingness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenguang; Scharfstein, Daniel O; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Girard, Timothy D; Yan, Ying

    2017-06-01

    In randomized studies involving severely ill patients, functional outcomes are often unobserved due to missed clinic visits, premature withdrawal, or death. It is well known that if these unobserved functional outcomes are not handled properly, biased treatment comparisons can be produced. In this article, we propose a procedure for comparing treatments that is based on a composite endpoint that combines information on both the functional outcome and survival. We further propose a missing data imputation scheme and sensitivity analysis strategy to handle the unobserved functional outcomes not due to death. Illustrations of the proposed method are given by analyzing data from a recent non-small cell lung cancer clinical trial and a recent trial of sedation interruption among mechanically ventilated patients. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Obstructive pulmonary disease in patients with previous tuberculosis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obstructive pulmonary disease in patients with previous tuberculosis: Pathophysiology of a community-based cohort. B.W. Allwood, R Gillespie, M Galperin-Aizenberg, M Bateman, H Olckers, L Taborda-Barata, G.L. Calligaro, Q Said-Hartley, R van Zyl-Smit, C.B. Cooper, E van Rikxoort, J Goldin, N Beyers, E.D. Bateman ...

  19. Matched cohort study of external cephalic version in women with previous cesarean delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keepanasseril, Anish; Anand, Keerthana; Soundara Raghavan, Subrahmanian

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the efficacy and safety of external cephalic version (ECV) among women with previous cesarean delivery. A retrospective study was conducted using data for women with previous cesarean delivery and breech presentation who underwent ECV at or after 36 weeks of pregnancy during 2011-2016. For every case, two multiparous women without previous cesarean delivery who underwent ECV and were matched for age and pregnancy duration were included. Characteristics and outcomes were compared between groups. ECV was successful for 32 (84.2%) of 38 women with previous cesarean delivery and 62 (81.6%) in the control group (P=0.728). Multivariate regression analysis confirmed that previous cesarean was not associated with ECV success (odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 0.19-18.47; P=0.244). Successful vaginal delivery after successful ECV was reported for 19 (59.4%) women in the previous cesarean delivery group and 52 (83.9%) in the control group (P<0.001). No ECV-associated complications occurred in women with previous cesarean delivery. To avoid a repeat cesarean delivery, ECV can be offered to women with breech presentation and previous cesarean delivery who are otherwise eligible for a trial of labor. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

  20. Attribute and topology based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, Reginald N.

    2016-01-19

    A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

  1. Phenotypic variation as an indicator of pesticide stress in gudgeon: Accounting for confounding factors in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinn, Cândida; Blanchet, Simon; Loot, Géraldine; Lek, Sovan; Grenouillet, Gaël

    2015-12-15

    The response of organisms to environmental stress is currently used in the assessment of ecosystem health. Morphological changes integrate the multiple effects of one or several stress factors upon the development of the exposed organisms. In a natural environment, many factors determine the patterns of morphological differentiation between individuals. However, few studies have sought to distinguish and measure the independent effect of these factors (genetic diversity and structure, spatial structuring of populations, physical-chemical conditions, etc.). Here we investigated the relationship between pesticide levels measured at 11 sites sampled in rivers of the Garonne river basin (SW France) and morphological changes of a freshwater fish species, the gudgeon (Gobio gobio). Each individual sampled was genotyped using 8 microsatellite markers and their phenotype characterized via 17 morphological traits. Our analysis detected a link between population genetic structure (revealed by a Bayesian method) and morphometry (linear discriminant analysis) of the studied populations. We then developed an original method based on general linear models using distance matrices, an extension of the partial Mantel test beyond 3 matrices. This method was used to test the relationship between contamination (toxicity index) and morphometry (PST of morphometric traits), taking into account (1) genetic differentiation between populations (FST), (2) geographical distances between sites, (3) site catchment area, and (4) various physical-chemical parameters for each sampling site. Upon removal of confounding effects, 3 of the 17 morphological traits studied were significantly correlated with pesticide toxicity, suggesting a response of these traits to the anthropogenic stress. These results underline the importance of taking into account the different sources of phenotypic variability between organisms when identifying the stress factors involved. The separation and quantification of

  2. Outcomes With Edoxaban Versus Warfarin in Patients With Previous Cerebrovascular Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rost, Natalia S; Giugliano, Robert P; Ruff, Christian T

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients with atrial fibrillation and previous ischemic stroke (IS)/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events despite anticoagulation. In this prespecified subgroup analysis, we compared warfarin with edoxaban in patients with ver......BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients with atrial fibrillation and previous ischemic stroke (IS)/transient ischemic attack (TIA) are at high risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events despite anticoagulation. In this prespecified subgroup analysis, we compared warfarin with edoxaban in patients...... with versus without previous IS/TIA. METHODS: ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) was a double-blind trial of 21 105 patients with atrial fibrillation randomized to warfarin (international normalized ratio......). Because only HDER is approved, we focused on the comparison of HDER versus warfarin. RESULTS: Of 5973 (28.3%) patients with previous IS/TIA, 67% had CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack) >3 and 36% were ≥75 years. Compared with 15 132...

  3. Patellar calcar: MRI appearance of a previously undescribed anatomical entity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, Mark S.; Tiegs-Heiden, Christin A. [Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (United States); Stuart, Michael J. [Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (United States)

    2014-02-15

    The femoral calcar is a constant anatomical structure within the proximal femur representing a condensation of bone trabeculae. It is our impression that a similar structure is present within the patella. The purpose of this retrospective study was to define the prevalence, appearance, location, and configuration of the patellar calcar on MRI examinations. One hundred consecutive unenhanced knee MRIs were retrospectively reviewed by two readers who were blinded to the clinical indication. The patellar calcar was defined as a dark signaling, linear or curvilinear structure subjacent to the patellar articular surface. If present, the patellar calcar was assigned to a ''well seen,'' ''moderately well seen,'' or ''faintly seen'' category. Location of the calcar within the patella, orientation, configuration, and thickness were recorded. Confounding variables, such as marrow edema, patellar chondromalacia, bipartite patella, or postoperative changes were also recorded. The patellar calcar was visualized in 81 out of 100 (81 %) MRIs. When detected, the calcar was well seen in 20 out of 81 (25 %), moderately well seen in 35 out of 81 (43 %), and faintly seen in 26 out of 81 (32 %). The anteroposterior width of the calcar measured at its thickest segment was: < 1 mm in 43 out of 81 (53 %), 1 mm in 28 out of 81 (35 %), and >1 mm in 10 out of 81 (12 %). The patellar calcar was seen in the majority of knee MRIs and had a consistent imaging appearance. The calcar may be obscured by degenerative arthrosis of the patella and rarely may mimic patellar stress fracture or osteochondritis dissecans. Radiologists and clinicians should be familiar with this normal anatomical structure. (orig.)

  4. Efficiency effects of quality of service and environmental factors. Experience from Norwegian electricity distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Growitsch, Christian [WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut fuer Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH, Bad Honnef (Germany). Dept. of Energy Markets and Energy Regulation; Jamasb, Tooraj [Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Economics; Wetzel, Heike [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economics

    2010-08-15

    Since the 1990s, efficiency and benchmarking analysis has increasingly been used in network utilities research and regulation. A recurrent concern is the effect of environmental factors that are beyond the influence of firms (observable heterogeneity) and factors that are not identifiable (unobserved heterogeneity) on measured cost and quality performance of firms. This paper analyses the effect of geographic and weather factors and unobserved heterogeneity on a set of 128 Norwegian electricity distribution utilities for the 2001-2004 period. We utilize data on almost 100 geographic and weather variables to identify real economic inefficiency while controlling for observable and unobserved heterogeneity. We use the factor analysis technique to reduce the number of environmental factors into few composite variables and to avoid the problem of multicollinearity. We then estimate the established stochastic frontier models of Battese and Coelli (1992; 1995) and the recent true fixed effects models of Greene (2004; 2005) without and with environmental variables. In the former models some composite environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of utilities. These effects vanish in the true fixed effects models. However, the latter models capture the entire unobserved heterogeneity and therefore show significantly higher average efficiency scores. (orig.)

  5. 75 FR 66009 - Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-27

    ... Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing (Previously the Lancair... Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing (Previously The Lancair...-15895. Applicability (c) This AD applies to the following Cessna Aircraft Company (type certificate...

  6. Exploring methods for comparing the real-world effectiveness of treatments for osteoporosis: adjusted direct comparisons versus using patients as their own control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Linda; Mesterton, Johan; Tepie, Maurille Feudjo; Intorcia, Michele; Overbeek, Jetty; Ström, Oskar

    2017-09-21

    Using Swedish and Dutch registry data for women initiating bisphosphonates, we evaluated two methods of comparing the real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis treatments that attempt to adjust for differences in patient baseline characteristics. Each method has advantages and disadvantages; both are potential complements to clinical trial analyses. We evaluated methods of comparing the real-world effectiveness of osteoporosis treatments that attempt to adjust for both observed and unobserved confounding. Swedish and Dutch registry data for women initiating zoledronate or oral bisphosphonates (OBPs; alendronate/risedronate) were used; the primary outcome was fracture. In adjusted direct comparisons (ADCs), regression and matching techniques were used to account for baseline differences in known risk factors for fracture (e.g., age, previous fracture, comorbidities). In an own-control analysis (OCA), for each treatment, fracture incidence in the first 90 days following treatment initiation (the baseline risk period) was compared with fracture incidence in the 1-year period starting 91 days after treatment initiation (the treatment exposure period). In total, 1196 and 149 women initiating zoledronate and 14,764 and 25,058 initiating OBPs were eligible in the Swedish and Dutch registries, respectively. Owing to the small Dutch zoledronate sample, only the Swedish data were used to compare fracture incidences between treatment groups. ADCs showed a numerically higher fracture incidence in the zoledronate than in the OBPs group (hazard ratio 1.09-1.21; not statistically significant, p > 0.05). For both treatment groups, OCA showed a higher fracture incidence in the baseline risk period than in the treatment exposure period, indicating a treatment effect. OCA showed a similar or greater effect in the zoledronate group compared with the OBPs group. ADC and OCA each possesses advantages and disadvantages. Combining both methods may provide an estimate of real

  7. CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A GRAPHICAL HIERARCHY OF INTERVENTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpitser, Ilya; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen

    2016-12-01

    Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated effects may not always be identified even in data where treatment assignment is known and under investigator control, or may be identified under one causal model but not another. Increasingly complex effects of interest, coupled with a diversity of causal models in use resulted in a fragmented view of identification. This fragmentation makes it unnecessarily difficult to determine if a given parameter is identified (and in what model), and what assumptions must hold for this to be the case. This, in turn, complicates the development of estimation theory and sensitivity analysis procedures. In this paper, we give a unifying view of a large class of causal effects of interest, including novel effects not previously considered, in terms of a hierarchy of interventions, and show that identification theory for this large class reduces to an identification theory of random variables under interventions from this hierarchy. Moreover, we show that one type of intervention in the hierarchy is naturally associated with queries identified under the Finest Fully Randomized Causally Interpretable Structure Tree Graph (FFRCISTG) model of Robins (via the extended g-formula), and another is naturally associated with queries identified under the Non-Parametric Structural Equation Model with Independent Errors (NPSEM-IE) of Pearl, via a more general functional we call the edge g-formula. Our results motivate the study of estimation theory for the edge g-formula, since we show it arises both in mediation analysis, and in settings where treatment assignment has unobserved causes, such as models associated with Pearl's front-door criterion.

  8. [Fatal amnioinfusion with previous choriocarcinoma in a parturient woman].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrgović, Z; Bukovic, D; Mrcela, M; Hrgović, I; Siebzehnrübl, E; Karelovic, D

    2004-04-01

    The case of 36-year-old tercipare is described who developed choriocharcinoma in a previous pregnancy. During the first term labour the patient developed cardiac arrest, so reanimation and sectio cesarea was performed. A male new-born was delivered in good condition, but even after intensive therapy and reanimation occurred death of parturient woman with picture of disseminate intravascular coagulopathia (DIK). On autopsy and on histology there was no sign of malignant disease, so it was not possible to connect previous choricarcinoma with amniotic fluid embolism. Maybe was place of choriocarcinoma "locus minoris resistentiae" which later resulted with failure in placentation what was hard to prove. On autopsy we found embolia of lung with a microthrombosis of terminal circulation with punctiformis bleeding in mucous, what stands for DIK.

  9. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  10. A Theory of Liquidity and Regulation of Financial Intermediation

    OpenAIRE

    Emmanuel Farhi; Mikhail Golosov; Aleh Tsyvinski

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies a mechanism design model of financial intermediation. There are two informational frictions: agents receive unobservable shocks and can participate in markets by engaging in trades unobservable to intermediaries. Without regulations, intermediaries provide no risk sharing because of an externality arising from arbitrage opportunities. We identify a simple regulation -- a liquidity requirement -- that corrects such an externality by affecting the interest rate on the markets...

  11. Life style segmentation in a cross-cultural perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Carsten Stig; Juhl, Hans Jørn

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes some problemes in doing cross-country, comparative research, involving observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The setting is life style segmentation, but the arguments cover a mush broader area.......This paper describes some problemes in doing cross-country, comparative research, involving observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The setting is life style segmentation, but the arguments cover a mush broader area....

  12. Quasi-stable injection channels in a wakefield accelerator

    CERN Document Server

    Wiltshire-Turkay, Mara; Pukhov, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Particle-driven plasma-wakefield acceleration is a promising alternative to conventional electron acceleration techniques, potentially allowing electron acceleration to energies orders of magnitude higher than can currently be achieved. In this work we investigate the dependence of the energy gain on the position at which electrons are injected into the wake. Test particle simulations show previously unobserved complex structure in the parameter space, with quasi-stable injection channels forming for particles injected in narrow regions away from the centre of the wake. The result is relevant to the planning and tuning of experiments making use of external injection.

  13. Jump chaotic behaviour of ultra low loss bulk acoustic wave cavities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goryachev, Maxim, E-mail: maxim.goryachev@uwa.edu.au; Farr, Warrick G.; Tobar, Michael E. [ARC Centre of Excellence for Engineered Quantum Systems, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia); Galliou, Serge [Department of Time and Frequency, FEMTO-ST Institute, ENSMM, 26 Chemin de l' Épitaphe 25000 Besançon (France)

    2014-08-11

    We demonstrate a previously unobserved nonlinear phenomenon in an ultra-low loss quartz bulk acoustic wave cavity (Q>3>10{sup 9}), which only occurs below 20 mK in temperature and under relatively weak pumping. The phenomenon reveals the emergence of several stable equilibria (at least two foci and two nodes) and jumps between these quasi states at random times. The degree of this randomness as well as separations between levels can be controlled by the frequency of the incident carrier signal. It is demonstrated that the nature of the effect lies beyond the standard Duffing model.

  14. Long-Lived Ultracold Molecules with Electric and Magnetic Dipole Moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rvachov, Timur M.; Son, Hyungmok; Sommer, Ariel T.; Ebadi, Sepehr; Park, Juliana J.; Zwierlein, Martin W.; Ketterle, Wolfgang; Jamison, Alan O.

    2017-10-01

    We create fermionic dipolar 23Na 6Li molecules in their triplet ground state from an ultracold mixture of 23Na and 6Li. Using magnetoassociation across a narrow Feshbach resonance followed by a two-photon stimulated Raman adiabatic passage to the triplet ground state, we produce 3 ×1 04 ground state molecules in a spin-polarized state. We observe a lifetime of 4.6 s in an isolated molecular sample, approaching the p -wave universal rate limit. Electron spin resonance spectroscopy of the triplet state was used to determine the hyperfine structure of this previously unobserved molecular state.

  15. 12C+16O sub-barrier radiative capture cross-section measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goasduff, A.; Courtin, S.; Haas, F.; Beck, C.; Lebhertz, D.; Jenkins, D.G.; Fallis, J.; Ruiz, C.; Hutcheon, D.A.; Amandruz, P.A.; Davis, C.; Hager, U.; Ottewell, D.; Ruprecht, G.

    2011-01-01

    We have performed a heavy ion radiative capture reaction between two light heavy ions, 12 C and 16 O, leading to 28 Si. The present experiment has been performed below Coulomb barrier energies in order to reduce the phase space and to try to shed light on structural effects. Obtained γ-spectra display a previously unobserved strong feeding of intermediate states around 11 MeV at these energies. This new decay branch is not fully reproduced by statistical nor semi-statistical decay scenarios and may imply structural effects. Radiative capture cross-sections are extracted from the data. (authors)

  16. Numerical simulation of the shot peening process under previous loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romero-Ángeles, B; Urriolagoitia-Sosa, G; Torres-San Miguel, C R; Molina-Ballinas, A; Benítez-García, H A; Vargas-Bustos, J A; Urriolagoitia-Calderón, G

    2015-01-01

    This research presents a numerical simulation of the shot peening process and determines the residual stress field induced into a component with a previous loading history. The importance of this analysis is based on the fact that mechanical elements under shot peening are also subjected to manufacturing processes, which convert raw material into finished product. However, material is not provided in a virgin state, it has a previous loading history caused by the manner it is fabricated. This condition could alter some beneficial aspects of the residual stress induced by shot peening and could accelerate the crack nucleation and propagation progression. Studies were performed in beams subjected to strain hardening in tension (5ε y ) before shot peening was applied. Latter results were then compared in a numerical assessment of an induced residual stress field by shot peening carried out in a component (beam) without any previous loading history. In this paper, it is clearly shown the detrimental or beneficial effect that previous loading history can bring to the mechanical component and how it can be controlled to improve the mechanical behavior of the material

  17. Does previous use affect litter box appeal in multi-cat households?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, J J; McGowan, R T S; Martin, F

    2017-08-01

    It is commonly assumed that cats actively avoid eliminated materials (especially in multi-cat homes), suggesting regular litter box cleaning as the best defense against out-of-box elimination. The relationship between previous use and litter box appeal to familiar subsequent users is currently unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between previous litter box use and the identity of the previous user, type of elimination, odor, and presence of physical/visual obstructions in a multi-cat household scenario. Cats preferred a clean litter box to a dirty one, but the identity of the previous user had no impact on preferences. While the presence of odor from urine and/or feces did not impact litter box preferences, the presence of odorless faux-urine and/or feces did - with the presence of faux-feces being preferred over faux-urine. Results suggest neither malodor nor chemical communication play a role in litter box preferences, and instead emphasize the importance of regular removal of physical/visual obstructions as the key factor in promoting proper litter box use. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Consequences of regret aversion : effects of expected feedback on risky decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeelenberg, M.; Beattie, J.; Pligt, van der J.; Vries, de N.K.

    1996-01-01

    Previous research has considered the question of how anticipated regret affects risky decision making. Several studies have shown that anticipated regret forces participants towards the safe option, showing risk-aversion. We argue that these results are due to the previous confounding of the

  19. Low-dose computed tomography image restoration using previous normal-dose scan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Jianhua; Huang, Jing; Feng, Qianjin; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Hongbing; Liang, Zhengrong; Chen, Wufan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated x-ray radiation dose is of a significant concern to patients and operators. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) or kVp parameter (or delivering less x-ray energy to the body) as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and the noise would propagate into the CT image if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. Since a normal-dose high diagnostic CT image scanned previously may be available in some clinical applications, such as CT perfusion imaging and CT angiography (CTA), this paper presents an innovative way to utilize the normal-dose scan as a priori information to induce signal restoration of the current low-dose CT image series. Methods: Unlike conventional local operations on neighboring image voxels, nonlocal means (NLM) algorithm utilizes the redundancy of information across the whole image. This paper adapts the NLM to utilize the redundancy of information in the previous normal-dose scan and further exploits ways to optimize the nonlocal weights for low-dose image restoration in the NLM framework. The resulting algorithm is called the previous normal-dose scan induced nonlocal means (ndiNLM). Because of the optimized nature of nonlocal weights calculation, the ndiNLM algorithm does not depend heavily on image registration between the current low-dose and the previous normal-dose CT scans. Furthermore, the smoothing parameter involved in the ndiNLM algorithm can be adaptively estimated based on the image noise relationship between the current low-dose and the previous normal-dose scanning protocols. Results: Qualitative and quantitative evaluations were carried out on a physical phantom as well as clinical abdominal and brain perfusion CT scans in terms of accuracy and resolution properties. The gain by the use

  20. Observability Analysis of DVL/PS Aided INS for a Maneuvering AUV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itzik Klein

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, ocean exploration has increased considerably through the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV. A key enabling technology is the precision of the AUV navigation capability. In this paper, we focus on understanding the limitation of the AUV navigation system. That is, what are the observable error-states for different maneuvering types of the AUV? Since analyzing the performance of an underwater navigation system is highly complex, to answer the above question, current approaches use simulations. This, of course, limits the conclusions to the emulated type of vehicle used and to the simulation setup. For this reason, we take a different approach and analyze the system observability for different types of vehicle dynamics by finding the set of observable and unobservable states. To that end, we apply the observability Gramian approach, previously used only for terrestrial applications. We demonstrate our analysis for an underwater inertial navigation system aided by a Doppler velocity logger or by a pressure sensor. The result is a first prediction of the performance of an AUV standing, rotating at a position and turning at a constant speed. Our conclusions of the observable and unobservable navigation error states for different dynamics are supported by extensive numerical simulation.

  1. Reconstructing the hidden states in time course data of stochastic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Christoph

    2015-11-01

    Parameter estimation is central for analyzing models in Systems Biology. The relevance of stochastic modeling in the field is increasing. Therefore, the need for tailored parameter estimation techniques is increasing as well. Challenges for parameter estimation are partial observability, measurement noise, and the computational complexity arising from the dimension of the parameter space. This article extends the multiple shooting for stochastic systems' method, developed for inference in intrinsic stochastic systems. The treatment of extrinsic noise and the estimation of the unobserved states is improved, by taking into account the correlation between unobserved and observed species. This article demonstrates the power of the method on different scenarios of a Lotka-Volterra model, including cases in which the prey population dies out or explodes, and a Calcium oscillation system. Besides showing how the new extension improves the accuracy of the parameter estimates, this article analyzes the accuracy of the state estimates. In contrast to previous approaches, the new approach is well able to estimate states and parameters for all the scenarios. As it does not need stochastic simulations, it is of the same order of speed as conventional least squares parameter estimation methods with respect to computational time. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Research Note Effects of previous cultivation on regeneration of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We investigated the effects of previous cultivation on regeneration potential under miombo woodlands in a resettlement area, a spatial product of Zimbabwe's land reforms. We predicted that cultivation would affect population structure, regeneration, recruitment and potential grazing capacity of rangelands. Plant attributes ...

  3. What do educational test scores really measure?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntosh, James; D. Munk, Martin

    Latent class Poisson count models are used to analyze a sample of Danish test score results from a cohort of individuals born in 1954-55 and tested in 1968. The procedure takes account of unobservable effects as well as excessive zeros in the data. The bulk of unobservable effects are uncorrelate......, and possible incentive problems make it more difficult to elicit true values of what the tests measure....

  4. Females use self-referent cues to avoid mating with previous mates

    OpenAIRE

    Ivy, Tracie M; Weddle, Carie B; Sakaluk, Scott K

    2005-01-01

    Females of many species mate repeatedly throughout their lives, often with many different males (polyandry). Females can secure genetic benefits by maximizing their diversity of mating partners, and might be expected, therefore, to forego matings with previous partners in favour of novel males. Indeed, a female preference for novel mating partners has been shown in several taxa, but the mechanism by which females distinguish between novel males and previous mates remains unknown. We show that...

  5. Nonlinear Predictive Models for Multiple Mediation Analysis: With an Application to Explore Ethnic Disparities in Anxiety and Depression Among Cancer Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qingzhao; Medeiros, Kaelen L; Wu, Xiaocheng; Jensen, Roxanne E

    2018-04-02

    Mediation analysis allows the examination of effects of a third variable (mediator/confounder) in the causal pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The general multiple mediation analysis method (MMA), proposed by Yu et al., improves traditional methods (e.g., estimation of natural and controlled direct effects) to enable consideration of multiple mediators/confounders simultaneously and the use of linear and nonlinear predictive models for estimating mediation/confounding effects. Previous studies find that compared with non-Hispanic cancer survivors, Hispanic survivors are more likely to endure anxiety and depression after cancer diagnoses. In this paper, we applied MMA on MY-Health study to identify mediators/confounders and quantify the indirect effect of each identified mediator/confounder in explaining ethnic disparities in anxiety and depression among cancer survivors who enrolled in the study. We considered a number of socio-demographic variables, tumor characteristics, and treatment factors as potential mediators/confounders and found that most of the ethnic differences in anxiety or depression between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white cancer survivors were explained by younger diagnosis age, lower education level, lower proportions of employment, less likely of being born in the USA, less insurance, and less social support among Hispanic patients.

  6. Does the patients′ educational level and previous counseling affect their medication knowledge?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulmalik M Alkatheri

    2013-01-01

    Conclusions: The education level of the patient and previous counseling are positively linked to medication knowledge. Knowledge of the medications′ side effects proved to be the most difficult task for the participants in this study, requiring the highest level of education, and was improved by previous counseling.

  7. The job satisfaction of principals of previously disadvantaged schools

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to identify influences on the job satisfaction of previously disadvantaged ..... I am still riding the cloud … I hope it lasts. .... as a way of creating a climate and culture in schools where individuals are willing to explore.

  8. Predictive factors for the development of diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damm, P.; Kühl, C.; Bertelsen, Aksel

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of diabetes in women with previous dietary-treated gestational diabetes mellitus and to identify predictive factors for development of diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Two to 11 years post partum, glucose tolerance was investigated in 241...... women with previous dietary-treated gestational diabetes mellitus and 57 women without previous gestational diabetes mellitus (control group). RESULTS: Diabetes developed in 42 (17.4%) women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (3.7% insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and 13.7% non...... of previous patients with gestational diabetes mellitus in whom plasma insulin was measured during an oral glucose tolerance test in late pregnancy a low insulin response at diagnosis was found to be an independent predictive factor for diabetes development. CONCLUSIONS: Women with previous dietary...

  9. Sequence variation does not confound the measurement of plasma PfHRP2 concentration in African children presenting with severe malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramutton Thiranut

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein PFHRP2 measurement is used widely for diagnosis, and more recently for severity assessment in falciparum malaria. The Pfhrp2 gene is highly polymorphic, with deletion of the entire gene reported in both laboratory and field isolates. These issues potentially confound the interpretation of PFHRP2 measurements. Methods Studies designed to detect deletion of Pfhrp2 and its paralog Pfhrp3 were undertaken with samples from patients in seven countries contributing to the largest hospital-based severe malaria trial (AQUAMAT. The quantitative relationship between sequence polymorphism and PFHRP2 plasma concentration was examined in samples from selected sites in Mozambique and Tanzania. Results There was no evidence for deletion of either Pfhrp2 or Pfhrp3 in the 77 samples with lowest PFHRP2 plasma concentrations across the seven countries. Pfhrp2 sequence diversity was very high with no haplotypes shared among 66 samples sequenced. There was no correlation between Pfhrp2 sequence length or repeat type and PFHRP2 plasma concentration. Conclusions These findings indicate that sequence polymorphism is not a significant cause of variation in PFHRP2 concentration in plasma samples from African children. This justifies the further development of plasma PFHRP2 concentration as a method for assessing African children who may have severe falciparum malaria. The data also add to the existing evidence base supporting the use of rapid diagnostic tests based on PFHRP2 detection.

  10. Kidnapping Detection and Recognition in Previous Unknown Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Tian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An unaware event referred to as kidnapping makes the estimation result of localization incorrect. In a previous unknown environment, incorrect localization result causes incorrect mapping result in Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM by kidnapping. In this situation, the explored area and unexplored area are divided to make the kidnapping recovery difficult. To provide sufficient information on kidnapping, a framework to judge whether kidnapping has occurred and to identify the type of kidnapping with filter-based SLAM is proposed. The framework is called double kidnapping detection and recognition (DKDR by performing two checks before and after the “update” process with different metrics in real time. To explain one of the principles of DKDR, we describe a property of filter-based SLAM that corrects the mapping result of the environment using the current observations after the “update” process. Two classical filter-based SLAM algorithms, Extend Kalman Filter (EKF SLAM and Particle Filter (PF SLAM, are modified to show that DKDR can be simply and widely applied in existing filter-based SLAM algorithms. Furthermore, a technique to determine the adapted thresholds of metrics in real time without previous data is presented. Both simulated and experimental results demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.

  11. Outcome of trial of scar in patients with previous caesarean section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, B.; Bashir, R.; Khan, W.

    2016-01-01

    Medical evidence indicates that 60-80% of women can achieve vaginal delivery after a previous lower segment caesarean section. Proper selection of patients for trial of scar and vigilant monitoring during labour will achieve successful maternal and perinatal outcome. The objective of our study is to establish the fact that vaginal delivery after one caesarean section has a high success rate in patients with previous one caesarean section for non-recurrent cause. Methods: The study was conducted in Ayub Teaching Abbottabad, Gynae-B Unit. All labouring patients, during the study period of five years, with previous one caesarean section and between 37 weeks to 41 weeks of gestation for a non-recurrent cause were included in the study. Data was recorded on special proforma designed for the purpose. Patients who had previous classical caesarean section, more than one caesarean section, and previous caesarean section with severe wound infection, transverse lie and placenta previa in present pregnancy were excluded. Foetal macrosomia (wt>4 kg) and severe IUGR with compromised blood flow on Doppler in present pregnancy were also not considered suitable for the study. Patients who had any absolute contraindication for vaginal delivery were also excluded. Results: There were 12505 deliveries during the study period. Total vaginal deliveries were 8790 and total caesarean sections were 3715. Caesarean section rate was 29.7%. Out of these 8790 patients, 764 patients were given a trial of scar and 535 patients delivered successfully vaginally (70%). Women who presented with spontaneous onset of labour were more likely to deliver vaginally (74.8%) as compared to induction group (27.1%). Conclusion: Trial of vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) in selected cases has great importance in the present era of the rising rate of primary caesarean section. (author)

  12. Study of functional-performance deficits in athletes with previous ankle sprains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hamid Babaee

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Despite the importance of functional-performance deficits in athletes with history of ankle sprain few, studies have been carried out in this area. The aim of this research was to study relationship between previous ankle sprains and functional-performance deficits in athletes. Materials and methods: The subjects were 40 professional athletes selected through random sampling among volunteer participants in soccer, basketball, volleyball and handball teams of Lorestan province. The subjects were divided into 2 groups: Injured group (athletes with previous ankle sprains and healthy group (athletes without previous ankle sprains. In this descriptive study we used Functional-performance tests (figure 8 hop test and side hop test to determine ankle deficits and limitations. They participated in figure 8 hop test including hopping in 8 shape course with the length of 5 meters and side hop test including 10 side hop repetitions in course with the length of 30 centimeters. Time were recorded via stopwatch. Results: After data gathering and assessing information distributions, Pearson correlation was used to assess relationships, and independent T test to assess differences between variables. Finally the results showed that there is a significant relationship between previous ankle sprains and functional-performance deficits in the athletes. Conclusion: The athletes who had previous ankle sprains indicated functional-performance deficits more than healthy athletes in completion of mentioned functional-performance tests. The functional-performance tests (figure 8 hop test and side hop test are sensitive and suitable to assess and detect functional-performance deficits in athletes. Therefore we can use the figure 8 hop and side hop tests for goals such as prevention, assessment and rehabilitation of ankle sprains without spending too much money and time.

  13. The prevalence of previous self-harm amongst self-poisoning patients in Sri Lanka

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohamed, Fahim; Perera, Aravinda; Wijayaweera, Kusal

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: One of the most important components of suicide prevention strategies is to target people who repeat self-harm as they are a high risk group. However, there is some evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm is lower in Asia than in the West. The objective of this study...... was to investigate the prevalence of previous self-harm among a consecutive series of self-harm patients presenting to hospitals in rural Sri Lanka. METHOD: Six hundred and ninety-eight self-poisoning patients presenting to medical wards at two hospitals in Sri Lanka were interviewed about their previous episodes...... of self-harm. RESULTS: Sixty-one (8.7%, 95% CI 6.7-11%) patients reported at least one previous episode of self-harm [37 (10.7%) male, 24 (6.8%) female]; only 19 (2.7%, 95% CI 1.6-4.2%) patients had made more than one previous attempt. CONCLUSION: The low prevalence of previous self-harm is consistent...

  14. Treatment mechanism in the MRC preschool autism communication trial: implications for study design and parent-focussed therapy for children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickles, Andrew; Harris, Victoria; Green, Jonathan; Aldred, Catherine; McConachie, Helen; Slonims, Vicky; Le Couteur, Ann; Hudry, Kristelle; Charman, Tony

    2015-02-01

    The PACT randomised-controlled trial evaluated a parent-mediated communication-focused treatment for children with autism, intended to reduce symptom severity as measured by a modified Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS-G) algorithm score. The therapy targeted parental behaviour, with no direct interaction between therapist and child. While nonsignificant group differences were found on ADOS-G score, significant group differences were found for both parent and child intermediate outcomes. This study aimed to better understand the mechanism by which the PACT treatment influenced changes in child behaviour though the targeted parent behaviour. Mediation analysis was used to assess the direct and indirect effects of treatment via parent behaviour on child behaviour and via child behaviour on ADOS-G score. Alternative mediation was explored to study whether the treatment effect acted as hypothesised or via another plausible pathway. Mediation models typically assume no unobserved confounding between mediator and outcome and no measurement error in the mediator. We show how to better exploit the information often available within a trial to begin to address these issues, examining scope for instrumental variable and measurement error models. Estimates of mediation changed substantially when account was taken of the confounder effects of the baseline value of the mediator and of measurement error. Our best estimates that accounted for both suggested that the treatment effect on the ADOS-G score was very substantially mediated by parent synchrony and child initiations. The results highlighted the value of repeated measurement of mediators during trials. The theoretical model underlying the PACT treatment was supported. However, the substantial fall-off in treatment effect highlighted both the need for additional data and for additional target behaviours for therapy. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. © 2014 Association for

  15. Charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates: IV. Comparison to previous work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliadis, C.; Longland, R.; Champagne, A.E.; Coc, A.

    2010-01-01

    We compare our Monte Carlo reaction rates (see Paper II of this issue) to previous results that were obtained by using the classical method of computing thermonuclear reaction rates. For each reaction, the comparison is presented using two types of graphs: the first shows the change in reaction rate uncertainties, while the second displays our new results normalized to the previously recommended reaction rate. We find that the rates have changed significantly for almost all reactions considered here. The changes are caused by (i) our new Monte Carlo method of computing reaction rates (see Paper I of this issue), and (ii) newly available nuclear physics information (see Paper III of this issue).

  16. Analysis of previous perceptual and motor experience in breaststroke kick learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ried Bettina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the variables that influence motor learning is the learner’s previous experience, which may provide perceptual and motor elements to be transferred to a novel motor skill. For swimming skills, several motor experiences may prove effective. Purpose. The aim was to analyse the influence of previous experience in playing in water, swimming lessons, and music or dance lessons on learning the breaststroke kick. Methods. The study involved 39 Physical Education students possessing basic swimming skills, but not the breaststroke, who performed 400 acquisition trials followed by 50 retention and 50 transfer trials, during which stroke index as well as rhythmic and spatial configuration indices were mapped, and answered a yes/no questionnaire regarding previous experience. Data were analysed by ANOVA (p = 0.05 and the effect size (Cohen’s d ≥0.8 indicating large effect size. Results. The whole sample improved their stroke index and spatial configuration index, but not their rhythmic configuration index. Although differences between groups were not significant, two types of experience showed large practical effects on learning: childhood water playing experience only showed major practically relevant positive effects, and no experience in any of the three fields hampered the learning process. Conclusions. The results point towards diverse impact of previous experience regarding rhythmic activities, swimming lessons, and especially with playing in water during childhood, on learning the breaststroke kick.

  17. Iodine-131 induced hepatotoxicity in previously healthy patients with Grave's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jhummon, Navina Priya; Tohooloo, Bhavna; Qu, Shen

    2013-01-01

    To describe the association of the rare and serious complication of liver toxicity in previously healthy Grave's disease (GD) patients after the treatment with radioactive iodine (131)I (RAI). We report the clinical, laboratory and pathologic findings of 2 cases of severe liver toxicity associated with the treatment with RAI in previously healthy patients with GD. Clinical examination and laboratory investigations excluded viral hepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, granulomatous disease, primary biliary disease, extrahepatic biliary obstruction, and heart failure. Case 1: A previously healthy 52-years old man reportedly having a typical GD but following RAI treatment, concomitantly developed severe liver toxicity that required 1 week of treatment in hospital. Case 2: A previously healthy 34-years old woman is reported as having a typical GD but developed jaundice following RAI treatment that required several weeks of in hospital treatment in the hepato-biliary department. In both cases, the liver dysfunction resolved after intensive treatment with hepato-protective agents. In this report the therapeutic considerations as well as the pathogenetic possibilities are reviewed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first description of the association observed, which is rare but may be severe and should be considered in any case of thyrotoxicosis where a liver dysfunction develops after the treatment with radioactive iodine (131)I.

  18. Management of a Septic Open Abdomen Patient with Spontaneous Jejunal Perforation after Emergent C/S with Confounding Factor of Mild Acute Pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetisir, Fahri; Sarer, Akgün Ebru; Acar, Hasan Zafer; Osmanoglu, Gokhan; Özer, Mehmet; Yaylak, Faik

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. We report the management of a septic Open Abdomen (OA) patient by the help of negative pressure therapy (NPT) and abdominal reapproximation anchor (ABRA) system in pregnant woman with spontaneous jejunal perforation after emergent cesarean section (C/S) with confounding factor of mild acute pancreatitis (AP). Presentation of Case. A 29-year-old and 34-week pregnant woman with AP underwent C/S. She was arrested after anesthesia induction and responded to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). There were only ash-colored serosanguinous fluid within abdomen during C/S. After C/S, she was transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) with vasopressor support. On postoperative 1st day, she underwent reoperation due to fecal fluid coming near the drainage. Leakage point could not be identified exactly and operation had to be deliberately abbreviated due to hemodynamic instability. NPT was applied. Two days later source control was provided by conversion of enteroatmospheric fistula (EAF) to jejunostomy. ABRA was added and OA was closed. No hernia developed at 10-month follow-up period. Conclusion. NPT application in septic OA patient may gain time to patient until adequate source control could be achieved. Using ABRA in conjunction with NPT increases the fascial closure rate in infected OA patient.

  19. Management of a Septic Open Abdomen Patient with Spontaneous Jejunal Perforation after Emergent C/S with Confounding Factor of Mild Acute Pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahri Yetisir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. We report the management of a septic Open Abdomen (OA patient by the help of negative pressure therapy (NPT and abdominal reapproximation anchor (ABRA system in pregnant woman with spontaneous jejunal perforation after emergent cesarean section (C/S with confounding factor of mild acute pancreatitis (AP. Presentation of Case. A 29-year-old and 34-week pregnant woman with AP underwent C/S. She was arrested after anesthesia induction and responded to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR. There were only ash-colored serosanguinous fluid within abdomen during C/S. After C/S, she was transferred to intensive care unit (ICU with vasopressor support. On postoperative 1st day, she underwent reoperation due to fecal fluid coming near the drainage. Leakage point could not be identified exactly and operation had to be deliberately abbreviated due to hemodynamic instability. NPT was applied. Two days later source control was provided by conversion of enteroatmospheric fistula (EAF to jejunostomy. ABRA was added and OA was closed. No hernia developed at 10-month follow-up period. Conclusion. NPT application in septic OA patient may gain time to patient until adequate source control could be achieved. Using ABRA in conjunction with NPT increases the fascial closure rate in infected OA patient.

  20. The job satisfaction of principals of previously disadvantaged schools

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to identify influences on the job satisfaction of previously disadvantaged school principals in North-West Province. Evans's theory of job satisfaction, morale and motivation was useful as a conceptual framework. A mixedmethods explanatory research design was important in discovering issues with ...

  1. 75 FR 57844 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-23

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft... Previously Held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.): Amendment 39-16438. Docket No. FAA-2010-0555... (Type Certificate previously held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Galaxy and Gulfstream 200...

  2. 77 FR 64767 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-23

    ... Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Airplanes AGENCY... airworthiness directive (AD) for certain Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate previously held by Israel... Certificate previously held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Galaxy and Gulfstream 200 airplanes...

  3. 78 FR 11567 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-19

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft... Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Gulfstream G150... Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.): Amendment 39...

  4. 76 FR 70040 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-10

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft... Aerospace LP (type certificate previously held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Galaxy and... new AD: 2011-23-07 Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft...

  5. 76 FR 6525 - Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-07

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia Aircraft... following new AD: 2011-03-04 Cessna Aircraft Company (Type Certificate Previously Held by Columbia Aircraft... the following Cessna Aircraft Company (type certificate previously held by Columbia Aircraft...

  6. ATLANTIC DIP: simplifying the follow-up of women with previous gestational diabetes.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Noctor, E

    2013-11-01

    Previous gestational diabetes (GDM) is associated with a significant lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes. In this study, we assessed the performance of HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) measurements against that of 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT) for the follow-up screening of women with previous GDM.

  7. VBAC Scoring: Successful vaginal delivery in previous one caesarean section in induced labour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raja, J.F.; Bangash, K.T.; Mahmud, G.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To develop a scoring system for the prediction of successful vaginal birth after caesarean section, following induction of labour with intra-vaginal E2 gel (Glandin). Methods: The cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2010 to August 2011, at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences in Islamabad. Trial of labour in previous one caesarean section, undergoing induction with intra-vaginal E2 gel, was attempted in 100 women. They were scored according to six variables; maternal age; gestation; indications of previous caesarean; history of vaginal birth either before or after the previous caesarean; Bishop score and body mass index. Multivariate and univariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the scoring system. Results: Of the total, 67 (67%) women delivered vaginally, while 33 (33%) ended in repeat caesarean delivery. Among the subjects, 55 (55%) women had no history of vaginal delivery either before or after previous caesarean section; 15 (15%) had history of vaginal births both before and after the previous caesarean; while 30 (30%) had vaginal delivery only after the previous caesarean section. Rates of successful vaginal birth after caesarean increased from 38% in women having a score of 0-3 to 58% in patients scoring 4-6. Among those having a score of 7-9 and 10-12, the success rates were 71% and 86% respectively. Conclusion: Increasing scores correlated with the increasing probability of vaginal birth after caesarean undergoing induction of labour. The admission VBAC scoring system is useful in counselling women with previous caesarean for the option of induction of labour or repeat caesarean delivery. (author)

  8. 75 FR 28485 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-21

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft... Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.): Amendment 39... previously held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Gulfstream 100 airplanes; and Model Astra SPX and...

  9. Why explicit gluonic components are needed in multiquark wave functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipkin, H.J.

    1982-03-01

    Constituent quark models with nontrivial correlations between color and space and no explicit description of the gluon degrees of freedom are inconsistent with local color gauge invariance. The screening by gluons of local color density in the quark sector must be included in treatments of long range forces in multiquark states. Neglect of gauge invariance and screening leads to erroneous predictions like unobserved Van der Weals forces and unobserved ''baryonium'' states with localized color. (author)

  10. Exchange rate smoothing in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Karádi, Péter

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain this preferred rate in the medium term, while market participants are assumed to form rational expectations about this target and influence exchange rates accordingly. The paper applies unobserved varia...

  11. Does Prescription Drug Adherence Reduce Hospitalizations and Costs?

    OpenAIRE

    William Encinosa; Didem Bernard; Avi Dor

    2010-01-01

    We estimate the impact of diabetic drug adherence on hospitalizations, ER visits, and hospital costs, using insurance claims from MarketScan® employer data. However, it is often difficult to measure the impact of drug adherence on hospitalizations since both adherence and hospitalizations may be correlated with unobservable patient severity. We control for such unobservables using propensity score methods and instrumental variables for adherence such as drug coinsurance levels and direct-to- ...

  12. Previous climatic alterations are caused by the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2003-01-01

    The article surveys the scientific results of previous research into the contribution of the sun to climatic alterations. The author concludes that there is evidence of eight cold periods after the last ice age and that the alterations largely were due to climate effects from the sun. However, these effects are only causing a fraction of the registered global warming. It is assumed that the human activities are contributing to the rest of the greenhouse effect

  13. 76 FR 1349 - Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company (Cessna) (Type Certificate A00003SE Previously...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-10

    ... Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company (Cessna) (Type Certificate A00003SE Previously Held by... Company (Type Certificate A00003SE previously held by Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing (previously The... Cessna Aircraft Company (Cessna) (Type Certificate A00003SE previously held by Columbia Aircraft...

  14. SONOGRAPHIC PREDICTION OF SCAR DEHISCENCE IN WOMEN WITH PREVIOUS CAESAREAN SECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shubhada Suhas Jajoo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Caesarean section (Sectio Caesarea is a surgical method for the completion of delivery. After various historical modifications of operative techniques, modern approach consists in the transverse dissection of the anterior wall of the uterus. The rate of vaginal birth after caesarean section was significantly reduced from year to year and the rate of repeated caesarean section is increased during the past 10 years. Evaluation of scar thickness is done by ultrasound, but it is still debatable size of thick scar that would be guiding “cut-off value” for the completion of the delivery method. To better assess the risk of uterine rupture, some authors have proposed sonographic measurement of lower uterine segment thickness near term assuming that there is an inverse correlation between LUS thickness and the risk of uterine scar defect. Therefore, this assessment for the management of women with prior CS may increase safety during labour by selecting women with the lowest risk of uterine rupture. The aim of the study is to study the diagnostic accuracy of sonographic measurements of the Lower Uterine Segment (LUS thickness near term in predicting uterine scar defects in women with prior Caesarean Section (CS. We aim to ascertain the best cut-off values for predicting uterine rupture. MATERIALS AND METHODS 100 antenatal women with history of previous one LSCS who come to attend antenatal clinic will be assessed for scar thickness by transabdominal ultrasonography and its correlation with intraoperative findings. This prospective longitudinal study was conducted for 1 year after IEC approval with inclusion criteria previous one LSCS. Exclusion criteria- 1 Previous myomectomy scar; 2 Previous 2 LSCS; 3 Previous hysterotomy scar. RESULTS Our findings indicate that there is a strong association between degree of LUS thinning measured near term and the risk of uterine scar defect at birth. In our study, optimal cut-off value for predicting

  15. Rapid fish stock depletion in previously unexploited seamounts: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rapid fish stock depletion in previously unexploited seamounts: the case of Beryx splendens from the Sierra Leone Rise (Gulf of Guinea) ... A spectral analysis and red-noise spectra procedure (REDFIT) algorithm was used to identify the red-noise spectrum from the gaps in the observed time-series of catch per unit effort by ...

  16. Choice of contraception after previous operative delivery at a family ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Choice of contraception after previous operative delivery at a family planning clinic in Northern Nigeria. Amina Mohammed‑Durosinlorun, Joel Adze, Stephen Bature, Caleb Mohammed, Matthew Taingson, Amina Abubakar, Austin Ojabo, Lydia Airede ...

  17. Statistical evaluation of unobserved nonuniform corrosion in A216 steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulsipher, B.A.

    1988-07-01

    Tests designed to promote nonuniform corrosion have been conducted at PNL on A216 steel. In all of the tests performed to date, there have been no manifestations of significant nonuniform corrosion. Although this may suggest that nonuniform corrosion in A216 steel may not be a significant problem in the nuclear waste repository, a question arises as to whether enough tests have been conducted for a sufficient length of time to rule out nonuniform corrosion of A216 steel. In this report, a method for determining the required number of tests is examined for two of the mechanisms of nonuniform corrosion: pitting and crevice corrosion

  18. Marijuana Use and High School Dropout: The Influence of Unobservables

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel F. McCaffrey; Rosalie Liccardo Pacula; Bing Han; Phyllis Ellickson

    2008-01-01

    In this study we reconsider the relationship between heavy and persistent marijuana use and high school dropout status using a unique prospective panel study of over 4500 7th grade students from South Dakota who are followed up through high school. Propensity score weighting is used to adjust for baseline differences that are found to exist before marijuana initiation occurs (7th grade). Weighted logistic regression incorporating these propensity score weights is then used to examine the exte...

  19. Poly-epiphyseal overgrowth: description of a previously unreported skeletal dysplasia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pazzaglia, Ugo E.; Bonaspetti, Giovanni [University of Brescia, Orthopaedic Clinic, Brescia (Italy); Beluffi, Giampiero [Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Department of Paediatric Radiology, Pavia (Italy); Marchi, Antonietta; Bozzola, Mauro; Savasta, Salvatore [Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Paediatric Clinic, University of Pavia, Pavia (Italy)

    2007-10-15

    A skeletal dysplasia with previously unreported features is presented. Its evolution was characterized by growth abnormalities of bones without involvement of other organs. Advanced bone age, increased stature and irregular epiphyseal ossification with stippling of the main long bones were documented. Physeal overgrowth was massive in the left proximal humerus and femur. Furthermore, the hip joint appeared fused with an abundant mass of pathological calcific tissue extending from the femur to the ilium. Pathological epiphyses were characterized by anarchic cartilaginous proliferation with multiple ossification centres, while lamellar bone apposition and remodelling were normal. The observed bone changes were different from those in any previously reported syndrome, metabolic defect or bone dysplasia. However, they clearly indicated a defect of endochondral ossification with some resemblance to phenotypes observed in dysplasia epiphysealis hemimelica. (orig.)

  20. Poly-epiphyseal overgrowth: description of a previously unreported skeletal dysplasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pazzaglia, Ugo E.; Bonaspetti, Giovanni; Beluffi, Giampiero; Marchi, Antonietta; Bozzola, Mauro; Savasta, Salvatore

    2007-01-01

    A skeletal dysplasia with previously unreported features is presented. Its evolution was characterized by growth abnormalities of bones without involvement of other organs. Advanced bone age, increased stature and irregular epiphyseal ossification with stippling of the main long bones were documented. Physeal overgrowth was massive in the left proximal humerus and femur. Furthermore, the hip joint appeared fused with an abundant mass of pathological calcific tissue extending from the femur to the ilium. Pathological epiphyses were characterized by anarchic cartilaginous proliferation with multiple ossification centres, while lamellar bone apposition and remodelling were normal. The observed bone changes were different from those in any previously reported syndrome, metabolic defect or bone dysplasia. However, they clearly indicated a defect of endochondral ossification with some resemblance to phenotypes observed in dysplasia epiphysealis hemimelica. (orig.)

  1. Manager impartiality? Worker-firm matching and the gender wage gap

    OpenAIRE

    Hensvik, Lena

    2011-01-01

    Using a rich matched employer-employee data set from Sweden, the author examines whether female managers in a firm narrow the gender pay gap. The studyÌs main contribution is its ability to account for unobserved heterogeneity among both workers and firms that is potentially correlated with manager gender. The results show a substantial negative association between the representation of female managers and the establishmentÌs gender wage gap. Estimates that account for sorting on unobserved w...

  2. GPS Composite Clock Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wright, James R.

    2008-01-01

    The GPS composite clock defines GPS time, the timescale used today in GPS operations. GPS time is illuminated by examination of its role in the complete estimation and control problem relative to UTC/TAI. The phase of each GPS clock is unobservable from GPS pseudorange measurements, and the mean phase of the GPS clock ensemble (GPS time) is unobservable. A new and useful observability definition is presented, together with new observability theorems, to demonstrate explicitly that GPS time is...

  3. Beyond Falsifiability: Normal Science in a Multiverse

    OpenAIRE

    Carroll, Sean M.

    2018-01-01

    Cosmological models that invoke a multiverse - a collection of unobservable regions of space where conditions are very different from the region around us - are controversial, on the grounds that unobservable phenomena shouldn't play a crucial role in legitimate scientific theories. I argue that the way we evaluate multiverse models is precisely the same as the way we evaluate any other models, on the basis of abduction, Bayesian inference, and empirical success. There is no scientifically re...

  4. Ethnic Enclaves and Immigrant Labour Market Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damm, Anna Piil

    This study investigates empirically how residence in ethnic enclaves affects labour market outcomes of refugees. Self-selection into ethnic enclaves in terms of unobservable characteristics is taken into account by exploitation of a Danish spatial dispersal policy which randomly disperses new...... refugees across locations conditional on six individual-specific characteristics. The results show that refugees with unfavourable unobserved characteristics are found to self-select into ethnic enclaves. Furthermore, taking account of negative self-selection, a relative standard deviation increase...

  5. HEART TRANSPLANTATION IN PATIENTS WITH PREVIOUS OPEN HEART SURGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sh. Saitgareev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Heart Transplantation (HTx to date remains the most effective and radical method of treatment of patients with end-stage heart failure. The defi cit of donor hearts is forcing to resort increasingly to the use of different longterm mechanical circulatory support systems, including as a «bridge» to the follow-up HTx. According to the ISHLT Registry the number of recipients underwent cardiopulmonary bypass surgery increased from 40% in the period from 2004 to 2008 to 49.6% for the period from 2009 to 2015. HTx performed in repeated patients, on the one hand, involves considerable technical diffi culties and high risks; on the other hand, there is often no alternative medical intervention to HTx, and if not dictated by absolute contradictions the denial of the surgery is equivalent to 100% mortality. This review summarizes the results of a number of published studies aimed at understanding the immediate and late results of HTx in patients, previously underwent open heart surgery. The effect of resternotomy during HTx and that of the specifi c features associated with its implementation in recipients previously operated on open heart, and its effects on the immediate and long-term survival were considered in this review. Results of studies analyzing the risk factors for perioperative complications in repeated recipients were also demonstrated. Separately, HTx risks after implantation of prolonged mechanical circulatory support systems were examined. The literature does not allow to clearly defi ning the impact factor of earlier performed open heart surgery on the course of perioperative period and on the prognosis of survival in recipients who underwent HTx. On the other hand, subject to the regular fl ow of HTx and the perioperative period the risks in this clinical situation are justifi ed as a long-term prognosis of recipients previously conducted open heart surgery and are comparable to those of patients who underwent primary HTx. Studies

  6. On Two Mixture-Based Clustering Approaches Used in Modeling an Insurance Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Miljkovic

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We review two complementary mixture-based clustering approaches for modeling unobserved heterogeneity in an insurance portfolio: the generalized linear mixed cluster-weighted model (CWM and mixture-based clustering for an ordered stereotype model (OSM. The latter is for modeling of ordinal variables, and the former is for modeling losses as a function of mixed-type of covariates. The article extends the idea of mixture modeling to a multivariate classification for the purpose of testing unobserved heterogeneity in an insurance portfolio. The application of both methods is illustrated on a well-known French automobile portfolio, in which the model fitting is performed using the expectation-maximization (EM algorithm. Our findings show that these mixture-based clustering methods can be used to further test unobserved heterogeneity in an insurance portfolio and as such may be considered in insurance pricing, underwriting, and risk management.

  7. Heterogeneity in Consumer Demands and the Income Effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mette

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses unique Spanish panel data on household expenditures to test whether unobservable heterogeneity in household demands (taste, etc.) is correlated with total expenditures (income). The main finding is that tastes are indeed correlated with income for about half of the goods considere....... For transportation, the bias is sufficiently large to misclassify the good as a luxury.......This paper uses unique Spanish panel data on household expenditures to test whether unobservable heterogeneity in household demands (taste, etc.) is correlated with total expenditures (income). The main finding is that tastes are indeed correlated with income for about half of the goods considered......, implying that cross-sectional estimates of income elasticities for these goods are biased. The goods are the following: food eaten outside home, alcohol and tobacco, transportation, and energy. The elasticity of alcohol and tobacco is more than halved when taking unobserved heterogeneity into account...

  8. THE VVV SURVEY REVEALS CLASSICAL CEPHEIDS TRACING A YOUNG AND THIN STELLAR DISK ACROSS THE GALAXY’S BULGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dékány, I. [Instituto Milenio de Astrofísica, Santiago (Chile); Minniti, D. [Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Andres Bello, República 220, Santiago (Chile); Majaess, D. [Saint Mary’s University, Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada); Zoccali, M.; Hajdu, G.; Catelan, M. [Instituto de Astrofísica, Facultad de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile); Alonso-García, J. [Unidad de Astronomía, Fac. Cs. Básicas, Universidad de Antofagasta, Avda. U. de Antofagasta 02800, Antofagasta (Chile); Gieren, W. [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Borissova, J., E-mail: idekany@astro.puc.cl [Instituto de Física y Astronomía, Universidad de Valparaíso, Av. Gran Bretaña 1111, Valparaso (Chile)

    2015-10-20

    Solid insight into the physics of the inner Milky Way is key to understanding our Galaxy’s evolution, but extreme dust obscuration has historically hindered efforts to map the area along the Galactic mid-plane. New comprehensive near-infrared time-series photometry from the VVV Survey has revealed 35 classical Cepheids, tracing a previously unobserved component of the inner Galaxy, namely a ubiquitous inner thin disk of young stars along the Galactic mid-plane, traversing across the bulge. The discovered period (age) spread of these classical Cepheids implies a continuous supply of newly formed stars in the central region of the Galaxy over the last 100 million years.

  9. Phase Transitions in Sexual Populations Subject to Stabilizing Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A.

    2003-04-01

    We show that a simple model of an evolving sexual population, which dates back to some of the earliest work in theoretical population genetics, exhibits an unexpected and previously unobserved phase transition between ordered and disordered states. This behavior is not present in populations evolving asexually without recombination and is thus important in any comparison of sexual and asexual populations. In order to calculate the details of the phase transition, we use techniques from statistical physics. We introduce the correlation of the population as the order parameter of the system and use maximum entropy inference to find the state of the population at any time.

  10. The pathogenicity of genetic variants previously associated with left ventricular non-compaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbasi, Yeganeh; Jabbari, Javad; Jabbari, Reza

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC) is a rare cardiomyopathy. Many genetic variants have been associated with LVNC. However, the number of the previous LVNC-associated variants that are common in the background population remains unknown. The aim of this study was to provide...... an updated list of previously reported LVNC-associated variants with biologic description and investigate the prevalence of LVNC variants in healthy general population to find false-positive LVNC-associated variants. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Human Gene Mutation Database and PubMed were systematically...... searched to identify all previously reported LVNC-associated variants. Thereafter, the Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC), that both represent the background population, was searched for all variants. Four in silico prediction tools were assessed to determine...

  11. Prevalent musculoskeletal pain as a correlate of previous exposure to torture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Dorte Reff; Montgomery, Edith; Bojholm, S

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To research possible associations between previous exposure to specific torture techniques and prevalent pain in the head and face, back, and feet. METHODS: 221 refugees, 193 males and 28 females, previously exposed to torture in their home country, were subject to a clinical interview...... was general abuse of the whole body (OR 5.64, 95% CI 1.93-16.45). CONCLUSION: In spite of many factors being potentially co-responsible for prevalent pain, years after the torture took place it presents itself as strongly associated with specific loci of pain, with generalized effects, and with somatizing....

  12. Payload specialist Reinhard Furrer show evidence of previous blood sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    Payload specialist Reinhard Furrer shows evidence of previous blood sampling while Wubbo J. Ockels, Dutch payload specialist (only partially visible), extends his right arm after a sample has been taken. Both men show bruises on their arms.

  13. Walking my way? Walker gender and display format Confounds the perception of specific emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halovic, Shaun; Kroos, Christian

    2018-02-01

    Previous evidence has shown that males and females display different gait kinematics which may influence the perception of emotions displayed through the same walking gait. We therefore investigated the influence of walker gender on the perception of happiness, sadness, anger and fear displayed through walking movements. Full-light (FL), point-light (PL) and synthetically modelled point-light walkers (SW) of both genders were shown to perceivers over three experiments. Additionally, gender ambiguous synthetic walkers were shown to control for the influence of form, gender stereotypes and idiosyncratic gait movements on emotional gait perception. Each emotion was identified above chance level for both walker genders and in all display conditions though significantly less in PL and SW than in FL. The gender of the walker did not influence the pattern of identifications in FL walkers (Fear > Sad > Happy > Anger > Neutral), but did influence the identification patterns in PL (Female: [Happy = Sad = Fear = Anger] > Neutral; Male: Fear = Sad = [Happy > Anger] > Neutral) and SWs (Female: Happy = Sad = Anger = Fear = Neutral; Male: [Happy = Sad = Anger] > [Fear = Neutral]; Ambiguous: [[Happy = Sad = Anger] > Fear] = Neutral). The gender of the walker and format in which they are displayed influenced the perception of different basic emotions. The constructed SW stimuli also displayed happiness, sadness and anger with equivalent intensity in female, male and gender ambiguous walkers thus untangling the perception-expression entanglement that has plagued previous emotion perception research. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Analysis of previous screening examinations for patients with breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eun Hye; Cha, Joo Hee; Han, Dae Hee; Choi, Young Ho; Hwang, Ki Tae; Ryu, Dae Sik; Kwak, Jin Ho; Moon, Woo Kyung

    2007-01-01

    We wanted to improve the quality of subsequent screening by reviewing the previous screening of breast cancer patients. Twenty-four breast cancer patients who underwent previous screening were enrolled. All 24 took mammograms and 15 patients also took sonograms. We reviewed the screening retrospectively according to the BI-RADS criteria and we categorized the results into false negative, true negative, true positive and occult cancers. We also categorized the causes of false negative cancers into misperception, misinterpretation and technical factors and then we analyzed the attributing factors. Review of the previous screening revealed 66.7% (16/24) false negative, 25.0% (6/24) true negative, and 8.3% (2/24) true positive cancers. False negative cancers were caused by the mammogram in 56.3% (9/16) and by the sonogram in 43.7% (7/16). For the false negative cases, all of misperception were related with mammograms and this was attributed to dense breast, a lesion located at the edge of glandular tissue or the image, and findings seen on one view only. Almost all misinterpretations were related with sonograms and attributed to loose application of the final assessment. To improve the quality of breast screening, it is essential to overcome the main causes of false negative examinations, including misperception and misinterpretation. We need systematic education and strict application of final assessment categories of BI-RADS. For effective communication among physicians, it is also necessary to properly educate them about BI-RADS

  15. Associations between lifestyle and air pollution exposure: Potential for confounding in large administrative data cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strak, Maciej; Janssen, Nicole; Beelen, Rob; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek; Houthuijs, Danny; van den Brink, Carolien; Dijst, Martin; Brunekreef, Bert; Hoek, Gerard

    2017-07-01

    Cohorts based on administrative data have size advantages over individual cohorts in investigating air pollution risks, but often lack in-depth information on individual risk factors related to lifestyle. If there is a correlation between lifestyle and air pollution, omitted lifestyle variables may result in biased air pollution risk estimates. Correlations between lifestyle and air pollution can be induced by socio-economic status affecting both lifestyle and air pollution exposure. Our overall aim was to assess potential confounding by missing lifestyle factors on air pollution mortality risk estimates. The first aim was to assess associations between long-term exposure to several air pollutants and lifestyle factors. The second aim was to assess whether these associations were sensitive to adjustment for individual and area-level socioeconomic status (SES), and whether they differed between subgroups of the population. Using the obtained air pollution-lifestyle associations and indirect adjustment methods, our third aim was to investigate the potential bias due to missing lifestyle information on air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohorts. We used a recent Dutch national health survey of 387,195 adults to investigate the associations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 2.5-10 , PM 2.5 absorbance, OP DTT, OP ESR and NO 2 annual average concentrations at the residential address from land use regression models with individual smoking habits, alcohol consumption, physical activity and body mass index. We assessed the associations with and without adjustment for neighborhood and individual SES characteristics typically available in administrative data cohorts. We illustrated the effect of including lifestyle information on the air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohort studies using a published indirect adjustment method. Current smoking and alcohol consumption were generally positively associated with air pollution. Physical activity

  16. Previous utilization of service does not improve timely booking in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Previous utilization of service does not improve timely booking in antenatal care: Cross sectional study ... Journal Home > Vol 24, No 3 (2010) > ... Results: Past experience on antenatal care service utilization did not come out as a predictor for ...

  17. Radioiodine treatment of recurrent hyperthyroidism in patients previously treated for Graves' disease by subtotal thyroidectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, H; Laurberg, P

    1992-01-01

    showed a higher sensitivity to radioiodine, with more cases of early hypothyroidism, than non-operated patients. However, after 50 months of follow-up the outcome was identical. The results indicate that frequent assessment is necessary after radioiodine treatment of previously operated patients, since......Radioiodine therapy is often employed for treatment of patients with relapse of hyperthyroidism due to Graves' disease, after previous thyroid surgery. Little is known about the outcome of this treatment compared to patients with no previous surgery. A total of 20 patients who had received surgical...... treatment for Graves' hyperthyroidism 1-46 years previously and with relapse of the hyperthyroidism, and 25 patients with hyperthyroidism due to Graves' disease and no previous thyroid surgery were treated with radioiodine, following the same protocol. Early after treatment the previously operated patients...

  18. Use of Prohibited Medication, a Potentially Overlooked Confounder in Clinical Trials: Omarigliptin (Once-weekly DPP-4 Inhibitor) Monotherapy Trial in 18- to 45-year-olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gantz, Ira; Sokolova, Liubov; Jain, Lokesh; Iredale, Carol; O'Neill, Edward A; Wei, Ziwen; Lam, Raymond; Suryawanshi, Shailaja; Kaufman, Keith D; Engel, Samuel S; Lai, Eseng

    2017-10-01

    dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor, omarigliptin, introduced a confounding factor that invalidated the results of the trial. This behavior may have been encouraged in the trial by protocol-specified self-monitoring of blood glucose levels. Use of prohibited medication may be an underappreciated confounder in clinical trial research. MK-3102-028 (US); ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01814748; EudraCT number, 2012-004303-12 (EU). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Neighborhoods, Schools, and Academic Achievement: A Formal Mediation Analysis of Contextual Effects on Reading and Mathematics Abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodtke, Geoffrey T; Parbst, Matthew

    2017-10-01

    Although evidence indicates that neighborhoods affect educational outcomes, relatively little research has explored the mechanisms thought to mediate these effects. This study investigates whether school poverty mediates the effect of neighborhood context on academic achievement. Specifically, it uses longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, counterfactual methods, and a value-added modeling strategy to estimate the total, natural direct, and natural indirect effects of exposure to an advantaged rather than disadvantaged neighborhood on reading and mathematics abilities during childhood and adolescence. Contrary to expectations, results indicate that school poverty is not a significant mediator of neighborhood effects during either developmental period. Although moving from a disadvantaged neighborhood to an advantaged neighborhood is estimated to substantially reduce subsequent exposure to school poverty and improve academic achievement, school poverty does not play an important mediating role because even the large differences in school composition linked to differences in neighborhood context appear to have no appreciable effect on achievement. An extensive battery of sensitivity analyses indicates that these results are highly robust to unobserved confounding, alternative model specifications, alternative measures of school context, and measurement error, which suggests that neighborhood effects on academic achievement are largely due to mediating factors unrelated to school poverty.

  20. Social network effects in alcohol consumption among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Mir M; Dwyer, Debra S

    2010-04-01

    In this paper we seek to empirically quantify the role of peer social networks in explaining drinking behavior among adolescents. Using data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents we utilize a multivariate structural model with school-level fixed effects to account for the problems of contextual effects, correlated effects and peer selection to purge the potential biases from the estimates of peer influence. Our peer group measures are drawn not only from the nomination of close friends, but also from classmates. Drinking behavior among the peer groups was constructed using the peers' own report of their alcohol consumption. Controlling for parent level characteristics, and other demographic parameters, we find that a 10% increase in the proportion of classmates who drink will increase the likelihood of drinking participation and frequency by approximately four percentage points. We also find evidence to show that the influence of close friends, while still significant, diminishes in magnitude after accounting for unobserved environmental confounders. Our findings support the literature that peer effects are important determinants of drinking behavior even after controlling for potential biases. Effective policy aimed at reducing alcohol consumption among adolescents would consider these significant peer effects. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.