WorldWideScience

Sample records for previous influenza pandemics

  1. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M; Taubenberger, Jeffery K

    2011-09-01

    For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, "wave" patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  3. Influenza pandemic planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Nancy J; Tamblyn, Susan E; Tam, Theresa

    2003-05-01

    Periodically, novel influenza viruses emerge and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, resulting in worldwide epidemics or pandemics. Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century. The first and most devastating of these, the "Spanish Flu" (A/H1N1) pandemic of 1918-1919, is estimated to have resulted in 20-50 million or more deaths worldwide, with unusually high mortality among young adults [C.W. Potter, Chronicle of influenza pandemics, in: K.G. Nicholson, R.G. Webster, A.J. Hay (Eds.), Textbook of Influenza, Blackwell Science, Oxford, 1998, p. 3]. Mortality associated with the 1957 "Asian Flu" (A/H2N2) and the 1968 "Hong Kong Flu" (A/H3N2) pandemics was less severe, with the highest excess mortality in the elderly and persons with chronic diseases [J. Infect. Dis. 178 (1998) 53]. However, considerable morbidity, social disruption and economic loss occurred during both of these pandemics [J. Infect. Dis. 176 (Suppl. 1) (1997) S4]. It is reasonable to assume that future influenza pandemics will occur, given historical evidence and current understanding of the biology, ecology, and epidemiology of influenza. Influenza viruses are impossible to eradicate, as there is a large reservoir of all subtypes of influenza A viruses in wild aquatic birds. In agricultural-based communities with high human population density such as are found in China, conditions exist for the emergence and spread of pandemic viruses. It is also impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. Moreover, the severity of illness is also unpredictable, so contingency plans must be put in place now during the inter-pandemic period. These plans must be flexible enough to respond to different levels of disease.

  4. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  5. Influenza pandemic planning in Europe.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, J.; Aguilera, J.F.

    2001-01-01

    The World Health Organization strongly recommends that all countries prepare in advance multidisciplinary pandemic plans to prevent and control the next influenza pandemic. We carried out a survey of influenza surveillance methods among members of the European Influenza Surveillance Schemes, EISS,

  6. Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M.; Morton, David P.; Johnson, Gregory P.; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-01-01

    In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, ...

  7. Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-06-01

    In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

  8. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

    2011-10-01

    To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Dynamic modeling for pandemic influenza

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, M.J.

    It is now widely agreed upon that most infectious diseases require a dynamic approach to validly analyze infectious disease control. Given the size of the spread and the potential impact, pandemic influenza certainly presents an area where dynamic modeling is much needed. In this article, a dynamic

  10. Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2014-09-26

    The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is

  11. The priming effect of previous natural pandemic H1N1 infection on the immunogenicity to subsequent 2010-2011 influenza vaccination in children: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Eun Kyeong; Eun, Byung Wook; Kim, Nam Hee; Lim, Jung Sub; Lee, Jun Ah; Kim, Dong Ho

    2016-08-22

    The effect of previous natural pandemic H1N1 (H1N1 pdm09) influenza infection on the immunogenicity to subsequent inactivated influenza vaccination in children has not been well studied. We aimed to evaluate the effect of H1N1 pdm09 natural infection and vaccination on the immunogenicity to subsequent 2010-2011 seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination in children. From October 2010 to May 2011, we conducted an open-label, multi-center study in children aged 6 months -18 years in Korea. We measured antibody titers with a hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay at baseline, 1 month, and 6 months after vaccination with trivalent split or subunit vaccines containing H1N1 pdm, A/H3N2, and B. The subjects were classified into 4 groups depending on the presence of laboratory-confirmed H1N1 pdm09 infection and/or vaccination in the 2009-2010 season; Group I: vaccination (-)/infection(-), Group II: vaccination (-)/infection(+), Group III: vaccination (+)/infection(-), Group IV: vaccination (+)/infection(+). Among the subjects in group I, 47 subjects who had a baseline titer >1:10 were considered to have an asymptomatic infection. They were included into the final group II (n = 80). We defined the new group II as the infection-primed (IP) group and group III as the vaccine-primed (VP) group. Seroconversion rate (57.5 % vs 35.9 %, p = 0.001), seroprotection rate at 6 months after vaccination (70.8 % vs 61.8 %, p = 0.032), and GMT at 1 month after vaccination (129.9 vs 66.5, p = 0.002) were significantly higher in the IP group than in the VP group. In the 9-18 year-old group, seroconversion rate and immunogenicity at 1 and 6 months were significantly higher in the IP group than in the VP group. However in the 1-7 year-old age group, there was no significant difference between the two groups. Previous H1N1 pdm09 infection appears to have positive effects on immunogenicity of subsequent inactivated influenza vaccines against H1N1 pdm09 in older

  12. The Possible Impact of Vaccination for Seasonal Influenza on Emergence of Pandemic Influenza via Reassortment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu-Sheng Zhang

    Full Text Available One pathway through which pandemic influenza strains might emerge is reassortment from coinfection of different influenza A viruses. Seasonal influenza vaccines are designed to target the circulating strains, which intuitively decreases the prevalence of coinfection and the chance of pandemic emergence due to reassortment. However, individual-based analyses on 2009 pandemic influenza show that the previous seasonal vaccination may increase the risk of pandemic A(H1N1 pdm09 infection. In view of pandemic influenza preparedness, it is essential to understand the overall effect of seasonal vaccination on pandemic emergence via reassortment.In a previous study we applied a population dynamics approach to investigate the effect of infection-induced cross-immunity on reducing such a pandemic risk. Here the model was extended by incorporating vaccination for seasonal influenza to assess its potential role on the pandemic emergence via reassortment and its effect in protecting humans if a pandemic does emerge. The vaccination is assumed to protect against the target strains but only partially against other strains. We find that a universal seasonal vaccine that provides full-spectrum cross-immunity substantially reduces the opportunity of pandemic emergence. However, our results show that such effectiveness depends on the strength of infection-induced cross-immunity against any novel reassortant strain. If it is weak, the vaccine that induces cross-immunity strongly against non-target resident strains but weakly against novel reassortant strains, can further depress the pandemic emergence; if it is very strong, the same kind of vaccine increases the probability of pandemic emergence.Two types of vaccines are available: inactivated and live attenuated, only live attenuated vaccines can induce heterosubtypic immunity. Current vaccines are effective in controlling circulating strains; they cannot always help restrain pandemic emergence because of the

  13. Epidemiology of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Spain. The Spanish Influenza Surveillance System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrauri Cámara, Amparo; Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Mateo Ontañón, Salvador de; Pozo Sánchez, Francisco; Ledesma Moreno, Juan; Casas Flecha, Inmaculada

    2012-10-01

    In accordance with European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommendations, the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System (SISS) maintained its activity during the summer of 2009, and since July 2009 the pandemic virus activity was monitored by the SISS. In this paper, we describe the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the 2009 pandemic in the Spain through the SISS. Spain experienced a transmission of the new A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus during the summer of 2009, which gradually increased, resulting in the pandemic wave in early autumn of that year. The reproductive number R0, estimated during the growth phase of the pandemic wave (1.32; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.29-1.36), showed a transmissibility comparable to preceding pandemics. There was an almost complete replacement of the previous seasonal A(H1N1) influenza virus by the pandemic virus A(H1N1)pdm09. The pandemic virus produced a greater burden of illness than seasonal influenza in children younger than 15 years old, while the incidence in those older than 64 years was lower compared with previous inter-pandemic seasons. Nevertheless, in Spain the 2009 pandemic was characterized as mild, considering the duration of the pandemic period and the influenza detection rate, both in the range of those observed in previous inter-pandemic seasons. Also, the case fatality ratio (CFR) was estimated at 0.58 deaths/1,000 confirmed ILI cases (95%CI, 0.52-0.64), in the range of the two previous pandemics of 1957 and 1968, with the highest CFR observed in the older than 64 years age group. In the 2009 pandemic there was a higher percentage of pandemic confirmed deaths in the younger ages, compared to seasonal influenza, since only 28% of the reported deaths occurred in persons aged 64 years and older. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  14. Pandemic Influenza Pediatric Office Plan Template

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    This is a planning tool developed by pediatric stakeholders that is intended to assist pediatric medical offices that have no pandemic influenza plan in place, but may experience an increase in patient calls/visits or workload due to pandemic influenza.

  15. pandemic swine influenza virus: preparedness planning

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Zamzar

    pandemic planning. Keywords: Pandemic, swine, influenza, virus, preparedness. INTRODUCTION. Effective pandemic preparedness and response should involve all sectors of ... In less affluent countries, human and material resources are often scarce and other ... Once surge requirements have been estimated, policy ...

  16. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  17. Pandemic influenza: an evolutionary concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devereaux, Alana

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to provide a concept analysis of 'pandemic influenza'. Pandemic influenza can have a devastating impact as individuals have little to no immunity towards the newly encountered virus. It is a persistent societal threat due to the advancement of multiple technological processes. Nurses work in multiple roles in pandemics. As such, a thorough understanding of the concept and its implications from a nursing perspective is required. Rodgers' Evolutionary Method was used to conduct the concept analysis of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Forty-nine papers were examined from the disciplines of public health, medicine, law, bioethics and healthcare policy. Papers were found from the PubMed, CINAHL and Google Scholar databases all dates up to December 2013. Limits were set to include peer-reviewed, English language articles. Identified papers were critically analyzed to explore the concept's antecedents, attributes and consequences. Surrogate and related terms, and an exemplar, were identified. Attributes of pandemic include original viral structure, increased human susceptibility, younger vulnerable populations and unpredictable time frames. Antecedents include processes that enable the increased geographical transmission of a newly created influenza. Consequences include higher morbidity and mortality rates and the need for an efficient pandemic response. This analysis identified the attributes of pandemic influenza through a synthesis of the current pandemic literature. However, no articles were identified as specifically nursing in nature. Therefore, more research is required to examine the impact of a pandemic declaration on the nursing profession. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-03-05

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.  Created: 3/5/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/5/2009.

  19. Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Spencer J; Miller, Joel C; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-10-01

    Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveillance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity.

  20. Pandemic swine influenza virus: Preparedness planning | Ojogba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The novel H1N1 influenza virus that emerged in humans in Mexico in early 2009 and transmitted efficiently in the human population with global spread was declared a pandemic strain. The introduction of different avian and human influenza virus genes into swine influenza viruses often result in viruses of increased fitness ...

  1. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  2. Pandemic influenza and pediatric intensive care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nap, Raoul E.; Andriessen, Maarten P. H. M.; Meessen, Nico E. L.; Albers, Marcel J. I. J.; van der Werf, Tjip S.

    Objective: To assess the adequacy of preparedness planning for an influenza pandemic by modeling the pediatric surge capacity of healthcare facility and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) requirements over time. Governments and Public Health authorities have planned preparedness activities and

  3. Influenza in the immediate post-pandemic era : A comparison with seasonal and pandemic influenza in hospitalized patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J. C.; Tutuhatunewa, E. D.; Scholvinck, E. H.; Hak, E.; Koopmans, M.; Niesters, H. G. M.; Riezebos-Brilman, A.

    Background: Comparative data on severity and treatment of seasonal, pandemic and post-pandemic influenza virus infections are scarce. Objectives: To systematically analyze characteristics of hospitalized patients with influenza in the post-pandemic period compared to seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  4. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  5. Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Alain; Acosta, Enrique; Hallman, Stacey; Bourbeau, Robert; Dillon, Lisa Y; Ouellette, Nadine; Earn, David J D; Herring, D Ann; Inwood, Kris; Madrenas, Joaquin; Miller, Matthew S

    2018-01-16

    Recent outbreaks of H5, H7, and H9 influenza A viruses in humans have served as a vivid reminder of the potentially devastating effects that a novel pandemic could exert on the modern world. Those who have survived infections with influenza viruses in the past have been protected from subsequent antigenically similar pandemics through adaptive immunity. For example, during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic, those exposed to H1N1 viruses that circulated between 1918 and the 1940s were at a decreased risk for mortality as a result of their previous immunity. It is also generally thought that past exposures to antigenically dissimilar strains of influenza virus may also be beneficial due to cross-reactive cellular immunity. However, cohorts born during prior heterosubtypic pandemics have previously experienced elevated risk of death relative to surrounding cohorts of the same population. Indeed, individuals born during the 1890 H3Nx pandemic experienced the highest levels of excess mortality during the 1918 "Spanish flu." Applying Serfling models to monthly mortality and influenza circulation data between October 1997 and July 2014 in the United States and Mexico, we show corresponding peaks in excess mortality during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic and during the resurgent 2013-2014 H1N1 outbreak for those born at the time of the 1957 H2N2 "Asian flu" pandemic. We suggest that the phenomenon observed in 1918 is not unique and points to exposure to pandemic influenza early in life as a risk factor for mortality during subsequent heterosubtypic pandemics. IMPORTANCE The relatively low mortality experienced by older individuals during the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic has been well documented. However, reported situations in which previous influenza virus exposures have enhanced susceptibility are rare and poorly understood. One such instance occurred in 1918-when those born during the heterosubtypic 1890 H3Nx influenza virus pandemic experienced the highest

  6. Epilepsy in Children After Pandemic Influenza Vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Håberg, Siri E; Aaberg, Kari M; Surén, Pål; Trogstad, Lill; Ghaderi, Sara; Stoltenberg, Camilla; Magnus, Per; Bakken, Inger Johanne

    2018-02-15

    To determine if pandemic influenza vaccination was associated with an increased risk of epilepsy in children. Information from Norwegian registries from 2006 through 2014 on all children <18 years living in Norway on October 1, 2009 was used in Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios for incident epilepsy after vaccination. A self-controlled case series analysis was used to estimate incidence rate ratios in defined risk periods after pandemic vaccination. In Norway, the main period of the influenza A subtype H1N1 pandemic was from October 2009 to December 2009. On October 1, 2009, 1 154 113 children <18 years of age were registered as residents in Norway. Of these, 572 875 (50.7%) were vaccinated against pandemic influenza. From October 2009 through 2014 there were 3628 new cases of epilepsy (incidence rate 6.09 per 10 000 person-years). The risk of epilepsy was not increased after vaccination: hazard ratio: 1.07; 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.23. Results from the self-controlled case series analysis supported the finding of no association between vaccination and subsequent epilepsy. Pandemic influenza vaccination was not associated with increased risk of epilepsy. Concerns about pandemic vaccination causing epilepsy in children seem to be unwarranted. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  7. 77 FR 13329 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... Secretary issued a declaration for pandemic influenza vaccines, which has been amended a number of times. The original pandemic influenza vaccine declaration was published on January 26, 2007,\\1\\ and was...

  8. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reichert Tom

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2 and A(H3N2 pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level

  9. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichert, Tom; Chowell, Gerardo; McCullers, Jonathan A

    2012-12-12

    Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated

  10. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

  11. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... in Port Shepstone, South Africa. Introduction. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 'swine flu' variant is currently a global pandemic.1 The infection associated with this virus is usually a mild, self-limiting illness. However, it may progress to severe pneumonia requiring intensive care unit (ICU) therapy in 31% of patients.2 This may.

  12. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  13. Updating Australia's pandemic preparedness: the revised Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (AHMPPI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Belinda

    2015-03-01

    In 2014, Australia updated its health management plan for pandemic influenza. This updated plan builds upon the lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic and revised guidance from the World Health Organization. The 2009 pandemic highlighted the need for flexibility in responding to pandemics so that responses can be tailored according to the severity of a pandemic. Recognition of the need for flexibility is a key feature of both the revised WHO guidance and the revised Australian plan. This column provides an overview of the updated WHO guidance and of the revised Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza.

  14. 75 FR 10268 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... potential to cause, sporadic human infections or have mutated to cause pandemics in humans; Whereas, these viruses may evolve into virus strains capable of causing a pandemic of human influenza because these...

  15. Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gog, Julia R; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Bjornstad, Ottar N; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chao, Dennis L; Khan, Farid; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2014-06-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a unique opportunity for detailed examination of the spatial dynamics of an emerging pathogen. In the US, the pandemic was characterized by substantial geographical heterogeneity: the 2009 spring wave was limited mainly to northeastern cities while the larger fall wave affected the whole country. Here we use finely resolved spatial and temporal influenza disease data based on electronic medical claims to explore the spread of the fall pandemic wave across 271 US cities and associated suburban areas. We document a clear spatial pattern in the timing of onset of the fall wave, starting in southeastern cities and spreading outwards over a period of three months. We use mechanistic models to tease apart the external factors associated with the timing of the fall wave arrival: differential seeding events linked to demographic factors, school opening dates, absolute humidity, prior immunity from the spring wave, spatial diffusion, and their interactions. Although the onset of the fall wave was correlated with school openings as previously reported, models including spatial spread alone resulted in better fit. The best model had a combination of the two. Absolute humidity or prior exposure during the spring wave did not improve the fit and population size only played a weak role. In conclusion, the protracted spread of pandemic influenza in fall 2009 in the US was dominated by short-distance spatial spread partially catalysed by school openings rather than long-distance transmission events. This is in contrast to the rapid hierarchical transmission patterns previously described for seasonal influenza. The findings underline the critical role that school-age children play in facilitating the geographic spread of pandemic influenza and highlight the need for further information on the movement and mixing patterns of this age group.

  16. Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia R Gog

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic provides a unique opportunity for detailed examination of the spatial dynamics of an emerging pathogen. In the US, the pandemic was characterized by substantial geographical heterogeneity: the 2009 spring wave was limited mainly to northeastern cities while the larger fall wave affected the whole country. Here we use finely resolved spatial and temporal influenza disease data based on electronic medical claims to explore the spread of the fall pandemic wave across 271 US cities and associated suburban areas. We document a clear spatial pattern in the timing of onset of the fall wave, starting in southeastern cities and spreading outwards over a period of three months. We use mechanistic models to tease apart the external factors associated with the timing of the fall wave arrival: differential seeding events linked to demographic factors, school opening dates, absolute humidity, prior immunity from the spring wave, spatial diffusion, and their interactions. Although the onset of the fall wave was correlated with school openings as previously reported, models including spatial spread alone resulted in better fit. The best model had a combination of the two. Absolute humidity or prior exposure during the spring wave did not improve the fit and population size only played a weak role. In conclusion, the protracted spread of pandemic influenza in fall 2009 in the US was dominated by short-distance spatial spread partially catalysed by school openings rather than long-distance transmission events. This is in contrast to the rapid hierarchical transmission patterns previously described for seasonal influenza. The findings underline the critical role that school-age children play in facilitating the geographic spread of pandemic influenza and highlight the need for further information on the movement and mixing patterns of this age group.

  17. Comparing pandemic to seasonal influenza mortality: moderate impact overall but high mortality in young children.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaard, C.C. van den; Asten, L. van; Koopmans, M.P.G.; Pelt, W. van; Nagelkerke, N.J.D.; Wielders, C.C.H.; Lier, A. van; Hoek, W. van der; Meijer, A.; Donker, G.A.; Dijkstra, F.; Harmsen, C.; Sande, M.A.B. van der; Kretzschmar, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated.

  18. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in ...

  19. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Antigenic shift; genetic reassortment; H1N1; pandemic; swine influenza; zoonosis. Abstract. At this critical juncture when the world has not yet recovered from the threat of avian influenza, the virus has returned in the disguise of swine influenza, a lesser known illness common in pigs. It has reached pandemic ...

  20. Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods

  1. A pandemic influenza modeling and visualization tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Livengood, Philip; Rudolph, Stephen; Collins, Timothy F.; Ebert, David S.; Brigantic, Robert T.; Corley, Courtney D.; Muller, George A.; Sanders, Stephen W.

    2011-08-01

    The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza outlines a plan for community response to a potential pandemic. In this outline, state and local communities are charged with enhancing their preparedness. In order to help public health officials better understand these charges, we have developed a modeling and visualization toolkit (PanViz) for analyzing the effect of decision measures implemented during a simulated pandemic influenza scenario. Spread vectors based on the point of origin and distance traveled over time are calculated and the factors of age distribution and population density are taken into effect. Healthcare officials are able to explore the effects of the pandemic on the population through a spatiotemporal view, moving forward and backward through time and inserting decision points at various days to determine the impact. Linked statistical displays are also shown, providing county level summaries of data in terms of the number of sick, hospitalized and dead as a result of the outbreak. Currently, this tool has been deployed in Indiana State Department of Health planning and preparedness exercises, and as an educational tool for demonstrating the impact of social distancing strategies during the recent H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak.

  2. Influenza pandemics: past, present and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zylberman Patrick

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Influenza epidemics occur regularly and prediction of their conversion to pandemics and their impact is difficult. Coordination of efforts on a global scale to control or reduce the impact is fraught with potential for under and overreaction. In light of the 1956 pandemic and more recently the SARS and H1N1 pandemics, the public health community took steps toward strengthening global surveillance and a coordinated response in keeping with the continuing memory of the tragedy seen in 1918. The scientific, professional, and technical resources of the 21st century are now advanced far beyond those then available. The H1N1 pandemic which commenced in 2009 progressed differently than predicted; its course was difficult to predict with any degree of certainty. Public responses to national immunization programs against the H1N1 virus have been weak. International movement of diseases can lead to creation of new endemic areas and continuous spread such as that which happened with West Nile Fever and Chikungunya. The lessons learned and the public and political responses to each actual or threatened pandemic will serve public health well in dealing with future challenges.

  3. Preparing for an influenza pandemic: ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotalik, Jaro

    2005-08-01

    In the near future, experts predict, an influenza pandemic will likely spread throughout the world. Many countries have been creating a contingency plan in order to mitigate the severe health and social consequences of such an event. Examination of the pandemic plans of Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, from an ethical perspective, raises several concerns. One: scarcity of human and material resources is assumed to be severe. Plans focus on prioritization but do not identify resources that would be optimally required to reduce deaths and other serious consequences. Hence, these plans do not facilitate a truly informed choice at the political level where decisions have to be made on how much to invest now in order to reduce scarcity when a pandemic occurs. Two: mass vaccination is considered to be the most important instrument for reducing the impact of infection, yet pandemic plans do not provide concrete estimates of the benefits and burdens of vaccination to assure everyone that the balance is highly favorable. Three: pandemic plans make extraordinary demands on health care workers, yet professional organizations and unions may not have been involved in the plans' formulation and they have not been assured that authorities will aim to protect and support health care workers in a way that corresponds to the demands made on them. Four: all sectors of society and all individuals will be affected by a pandemic and everyone's collaboration will be required. Yet, it appears that the various populations have been inadequately informed by occasional media reports. Hence, it is essential that plans are developed and communication programs implemented that will not only inform but also create an atmosphere of mutual trust and solidarity; qualities that at the time of a pandemic will be much needed.

  4. Canadian national surveys on pandemic influenza preparations: pre-pandemic and peri-pandemic findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Prior to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic, public health authorities in Canada and elsewhere prepared for the future outbreak, partly guided by an ethical framework developed within the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP). We developed a telephone-based survey based on that framework, which was delivered across Canada in late 2008. In June, 2009, the WHO declared pandemic Phase 6 status and from the subsequent October (2009) until May 2010, the CanPREP team fielded a second (revised) survey, collecting another 1,000 opinions from Canadians during a period of pre-pandemic anticipation and peri-pandemic experience. Methods Surveys were administered by telephone with random sampling achieved via random digit dialing. Eligible participants were adults, 18 years or older, with per province stratification approximating provincial percentages of national population. Descriptive results were tabulated and logistic regression analyses used to assess whether demographic factors were significantly associated with outcomes, and to identify divergences (between the pre-pandemic and intra-pandemic surveys). Results N = 1,029 interviews were completed from 1,986 households, yielding a gross response rate of 52% (AAPOR Standard Definition 3). Over 90% of subjects indicated the most important goal of pandemic influenza preparations was saving lives, with 41% indicating that saving lives solely in Canada was the highest priority and 50% indicating saving lives globally was the highest priority. About 90% of respondents supported the obligation of health care workers to report to work and face influenza pandemic risks excepting those with serious health conditions which that increased risks. Strong majorities favoured stocking adequate protective antiviral dosages for all Canadians (92%) and, if effective, influenza vaccinations (95%). Over 70% agreed Canada should provide international assistance to poorer countries for pandemic preparation

  5. Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alain Gagnon

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent outbreaks of H5, H7, and H9 influenza A viruses in humans have served as a vivid reminder of the potentially devastating effects that a novel pandemic could exert on the modern world. Those who have survived infections with influenza viruses in the past have been protected from subsequent antigenically similar pandemics through adaptive immunity. For example, during the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic, those exposed to H1N1 viruses that circulated between 1918 and the 1940s were at a decreased risk for mortality as a result of their previous immunity. It is also generally thought that past exposures to antigenically dissimilar strains of influenza virus may also be beneficial due to cross-reactive cellular immunity. However, cohorts born during prior heterosubtypic pandemics have previously experienced elevated risk of death relative to surrounding cohorts of the same population. Indeed, individuals born during the 1890 H3Nx pandemic experienced the highest levels of excess mortality during the 1918 “Spanish flu.” Applying Serfling models to monthly mortality and influenza circulation data between October 1997 and July 2014 in the United States and Mexico, we show corresponding peaks in excess mortality during the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic and during the resurgent 2013–2014 H1N1 outbreak for those born at the time of the 1957 H2N2 “Asian flu” pandemic. We suggest that the phenomenon observed in 1918 is not unique and points to exposure to pandemic influenza early in life as a risk factor for mortality during subsequent heterosubtypic pandemics.

  6. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Increased Extent of and Risk Factors for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and Seasonal Influenza among Children, Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, Michal; Averbuch, Diana; Tenenbaum, Ariel; Goldmann, Daniele; Kunin, Marina; Shmueli, Einat; Yatsiv, Ido; Weintraub, Michael; Mandelboim, Michal; Strauss-Liviatan, Nurith; Anis, Emilia; Mendelson, Ella; Shohat, Tamy; Wolf, Dana G.; Shapiro, Mervyn; Grotto, Itamar

    2011-01-01

    During the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in Israel, incidence rates among children were 2× higher than that of the previous 4 influenza seasons; hospitalization rates were 5× higher. Children hospitalized for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were older and had more underlying chronic diseases than those hospitalized for seasonal influenza. PMID:21888809

  8. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

  9. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Can antiviral drugs contain pandemic influenza transmission?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels G Becker

    Full Text Available Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission.Simulations using a standard transmission model that allows for infected arrivals and delayed vaccination show that attempts to contain transmission require relatively few antiviral doses. In contrast, persistent use of antiviral drugs when the reproduction number remains above 1 use very many doses and are unlikely to reduce the eventual attack rate appreciably unless the stockpile is very large. A second model, in which the community has a household structure, shows that the effectiveness of a strategy of dispensing antiviral drugs to infected households decreases rapidly with time delays in dispensing the antivirals. Using characteristics of past pandemics it is estimated that at least 80% of primary household cases must present upon show of symptoms to have a chance of containing transmission by dispensing antiviral drugs to households. To determine data needs, household outbreaks were simulated with 50% receiving antiviral drugs early and 50% receiving antiviral drugs late. A test to compare the size of household outbreaks indicates that at least 100-200 household outbreaks need to be monitored to find evidence that antiviral drugs can mitigate transmission of the newly emerged virus.Use of antiviral drugs in an early attempt to contain transmission should be part of preparedness plans for a future influenza pandemic. Data on the incidence of the first 350 cases and the eventual attack rates of the first 200 hundred household outbreaks should be used to estimate the initial reproduction number R and the effectiveness of antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission. Use of antiviral drugs to mitigate general transmission should cease if these estimates indicate that containment of transmission is unlikely.

  11. Mathematical Assessment of Canada’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba B Gumel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

  12. Pandemic Influenza Planning, United States, 1978?2008

    OpenAIRE

    Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A.; Gensheimer, Kathleen F.; Cox, Nancy J.; Redd, Stephen C.

    2013-01-01

    During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the ...

  13. Considerable progress in European preparations for a potential influenza pandemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, J.

    2005-01-01

    The threat of an influenza pandemic has been heightened in the past two years by outbreaks of avian influenza concentrated in South East Asia which have resulted in human deaths. So far, the avian influenza virus seems difficult to transmit from human to human, but changes in the virus genome may

  14. Influenza: the next pandemic?: a review | Adungo, | East African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Due to the diversity of susceptible reservoirs of influenza viruses and the interspecies transmission recently reported, a mutated strain of the virus to which people have no immunity could cause an influenza pandemic once the virus gains efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. The fear that avian influenza ...

  15. Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Planning Template for Primary Care Offices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Plan Template for Primary Care Provider Offices is intended to assist primary care providers and office managers with preparing their offices for quickly putting a plan in place to handle an increase in patient calls and visits, whether during the 2009-2010 influenza season or future influenza seasons.

  16. Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A; Gensheimer, Kathleen F; Cox, Nancy J; Redd, Stephen C

    2013-06-01

    During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

  17. Clinical outcomes of seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza A (H1N1 in pediatric inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budd Alicia

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In April 2009, a novel influenza A H1N1 (nH1N1 virus emerged and spread rapidly worldwide. News of the pandemic led to a heightened awareness of the consequences of influenza and generally resulted in enhanced infection control practices and strengthened vaccination efforts for both healthcare workers and the general population. Seasonal influenza (SI illness in the pediatric population has been previously shown to result in significant morbidity, mortality, and substantial hospital resource utilization. Although influenza pandemics have the possibility of resulting in considerable illness, we must not ignore the impact that we can experience annually with SI. Methods We compared the outcomes of pediatric patients ≤18 years of age at a large urban hospital with laboratory confirmed influenza and an influenza-like illness (ILI during the 2009 pandemic and two prior influenza seasons. The primary outcome measure was hospital length of stay (LOS. All variables potentially associated with LOS based on univariable analysis, previous studies, or hypothesized relationships were included in the regression models to ensure adjustment for their effects. Results There were 133 pediatric cases of nH1N1 admitted during 2009 and 133 cases of SI admitted during the prior 2 influenza seasons (2007-8 and 2008-9. Thirty-six percent of children with SI and 18% of children with nH1N1 had no preexisting medical conditions (p = 0.14. Children admitted with SI had 1.73 times longer adjusted LOS than children admitted for nH1N1 (95% CI 1.35 - 2.13. There was a trend towards more children with SI requiring mechanical ventilation compared with nH1N1 (16 vs.7, p = 0.08. Conclusions This study strengthens the growing body of evidence demonstrating that SI results in significant morbidity in the pediatric population. Pandemic H1N1 received considerable attention with strong media messages urging people to undergo vaccination and encouraging improved

  18. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  19. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  20. Influenza mortality in the United States, 2009 pandemic: burden, timing and age distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann M Nguyen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS. Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. RESULTS: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009-10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics.

  1. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable...

  2. Public Health Planning for Vulnerable Populations and Pandemic Influenza

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cameron, Wendy K

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning for vulnerable populations, those segments of each community that are normally independent but that may require special assistance during a health emergency such as an influenza pandemic...

  3. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, George J; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K

    2013-01-01

    The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR), using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS) for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5%) the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1%) this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03%) the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75%) the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in reducing the infection rate.

  4. The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, George J.; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K.

    2013-01-01

    Background The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. Methods A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR), using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. Results Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS) for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5%) the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1%) this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03%) the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75%) the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. Conclusions The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in reducing the

  5. Vaccination Against Seasonal or Pandemic Influenza in Emergency Medical Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Alexandre; Mabire, Cédric; Hugli, Olivier; Dorribo, Victor; Zanetti, Giorgio; Lazor-Blanchet, Catherine; Carron, Pierre-Nicolas

    2016-04-01

    Influenza is a major concern for Emergency Medical Services (EMS); EMS workers' (EMS-Ws) vaccination rates remain low despite promotion. Determinants of vaccination for seasonal influenza (SI) or pandemic influenza (PI) are unknown in this setting. The influence of the H1N1 pandemic on EMS-W vaccination rates, differences between SI and PI vaccination rates, and the vaccination determinants were investigated. A survey was conducted in 2011 involving 65 Swiss EMS-Ws. Socio-professional data, self-declared SI/PI vaccination status, and motives for vaccine refusal or acceptation were collected. Response rate was 95%. The EMS-Ws were predominantly male (n=45; 73%), in good health (87%), with a mean age of 36 (SD=7.7) years. Seventy-four percent had more than six years of work experience. Self-declared vaccination rates were 40% for both SI and PI (PI+/SI+), 19% for PI only (PI+/SI-), 1.6% for SI only (PI-/SI+), and 39% were not vaccinated against either (PI-/SI-). Women's vaccination rates specifically were lower in all categories but the difference was not statistically significant. During the previous three years, 92% of PI+/SI+ EMS-Ws received at least one SI vaccination; it was 8.3% in the case of PI-/SI- (P=.001) and 25% for PI+/SI- (P=.001). During the pandemic, SI vaccination rate increased from 26% during the preceding year to 42% (P=.001). Thirty percent of the PI+/SI+ EMS-Ws declared that they would not get vaccination next year, while this proportion was null for the PI-/SI- and PI+/SI- groups. Altruism and discomfort induced by the surgical mask required were the main motivations to get vaccinated against PI. Factors limiting PI or SI vaccination included the option to wear a mask, avoidance of medication, fear of adverse effects, and concerns about safety and effectiveness. Average vaccination rate in this study's EMS-Ws was below recommended values, particularly for women. Previous vaccination status was a significant determinant of PI and future

  6. Child Care and Preschool Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2006

    2006-01-01

    A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges that people have little or no immunity to and for which there may be no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person and causes serious illness. It can sweep across the country and around the world very quickly. It is hard to predict when the…

  7. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    sound prevention and control strategies. Enhancing global surveillance for influenza is crucial because an early warning of an impending pandemic might save thousands of lives. WHO is keeping a close eye on the current pandemic situation through the Global Alert and Response system, which is an integrated system for ...

  8. Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza - United States, 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qualls, Noreen; Levitt, Alexandra; Kanade, Neha; Wright-Jegede, Narue; Dopson, Stephanie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Reed, Carrie; Uzicanin, Amra

    2017-04-21

    When a novel influenza A virus with pandemic potential emerges, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) often are the most readily available interventions to help slow transmission of the virus in communities, which is especially important before a pandemic vaccine becomes widely available. NPIs, also known as community mitigation measures, are actions that persons and communities can take to help slow the spread of respiratory virus infections, including seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.These guidelines replace the 2007 Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States - Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425). Several elements remain unchanged from the 2007 guidance, which described recommended NPIs and the supporting rationale and key concepts for the use of these interventions during influenza pandemics. NPIs can be phased in, or layered, on the basis of pandemic severity and local transmission patterns over time. Categories of NPIs include personal protective measures for everyday use (e.g., voluntary home isolation of ill persons, respiratory etiquette, and hand hygiene); personal protective measures reserved for influenza pandemics (e.g., voluntary home quarantine of exposed household members and use of face masks in community settings when ill); community measures aimed at increasing social distancing (e.g., school closures and dismissals, social distancing in workplaces, and postponing or cancelling mass gatherings); and environmental measures (e.g., routine cleaning of frequently touched surfaces).Several new elements have been incorporated into the 2017 guidelines. First, to support updated recommendations on the use of NPIs, the latest scientific evidence available since the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 pandemic has been added. Second, a summary of lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response is presented to underscore

  9. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  10. Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Magali; Carrat, Fabrice; Rey, Grégoire; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cécile

    2012-01-01

    Background The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. Methods We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. Results The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. Conclusions The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age

  11. The Benefits and Risks of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G. Wijnans (Leonoor)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractIn 2009 and 2010 the world experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. As the new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus spread across the world, vaccines were being produced and licensed at an unprecedented scale and speed. In Europe, adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted H1N1pdm09

  12. A Review of Swine Influenza: An Emerging Pandemic | Adeola ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An unprecedented epizootic swine Influenza A (H1N1) virus that is highly pathogenic has crossed the species barrier in Mexico to cause many human fatalities and poses an increasing pandemic threat. This summary describes the aetiopathogenesis of human infection with Influenza A (H1N1) and reviews ...

  13. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009: a pandemic alarm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    At this critical juncture when the world has not yet recovered from the threat of avian influenza, the virus has returned in the disguise of swine influenza, a lesser known illness common in pigs. It has reached pandemic proportions in a short time span with health personnel still devising ways to identify the novel H1N1 virus ...

  14. Risk factors for death from pandemic influenza in 1918–1919: a case–control study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Jennifer A; Stanley, James; Baker, Michael G; Wilson, Nick

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite the persisting threat from future influenza pandemics, much is still unknown about the risk factors for death from such events, and especially for the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Methods A case–control study was performed to explore possible risk factors for death from pandemic influenza among New Zealand military personnel in the Northern Hemisphere in 1918–1919 (n = 218 cases, n = 221 controls). Data were compiled from a Roll-of-Honour dataset, a dataset of nearly all military personnel involved in the war and archived individual records. Results In the fully adjusted multivariable model, the following were significantly associated with increased risk of death from pandemic influenza: age (25–29 years), pre-pandemic hospitalisations for a chronic condition (e.g. tuberculosis), relatively early year of military deployment, a relatively short time from enlistment to foreign service, and having a larger chest size (e.g. adjusted odds ratio for 90–99 cm versus pandemic. Some of the findings are consistent with previous research on risk factors (such as chronic conditions and age groups), but others appear more novel (e.g., larger chest size). As all such historical analyses have limitations, there is a need for additional studies in other settings as archival World War One records become digitalised. PMID:24490663

  15. Two Years after Pandemic Influenza A/2009/H1N1: What Have We Learned?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Vincent C. C.; To, Kelvin K. W.; Tse, Herman; Hung, Ivan F. N.

    2012-01-01

    Summary: The world had been anticipating another influenza pandemic since the last one in 1968. The pandemic influenza A H1N1 2009 virus (A/2009/H1N1) finally arrived, causing the first pandemic influenza of the new millennium, which has affected over 214 countries and caused over 18,449 deaths. Because of the persistent threat from the A/H5N1 virus since 1997 and the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in 2003, medical and scientific communities have been more prepared in mindset and infrastructure. This preparedness has allowed for rapid and effective research on the epidemiological, clinical, pathological, immunological, virological, and other basic scientific aspects of the disease, with impacts on its control. A PubMed search using the keywords “pandemic influenza virus H1N1 2009” yielded over 2,500 publications, which markedly exceeded the number published on previous pandemics. Only representative works with relevance to clinical microbiology and infectious diseases are reviewed in this article. A significant increase in the understanding of this virus and the disease within such a short amount of time has allowed for the timely development of diagnostic tests, treatments, and preventive measures. These findings could prove useful for future randomized controlled clinical trials and the epidemiological control of future pandemics. PMID:22491771

  16. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance

  17. The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

    2011-01-01

    Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess

  18. Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sherod, II, Frank W

    2006-01-01

    .... The next national disaster facing the U.S. could be an influenza pandemic. The bird flu virus H5N1 currently threatening Asia and Europe can potentially mutate into a deadly human influenza pandemic with global consequences...

  19. Health Care Workers’ Risk Perceptions and Willingness to Report for Work during an Influenza Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability and willingness of health care workers to report for work during a pandemic are essential to pandemic response. The main contribution of this article is to examine the relationship between risk perception of personal and work activities and willingness to report for work during an influenza pandemic. Data were collected through a quantitative Web-based survey sent to health care workers on the island of Montreal. Respondents were asked about their perception of various risks to obtain index measures of risk perception. A multinomial logit model was applied for the probability estimations, and a factor analysis was conducted to compute risk perception indexes (scores. Risk perception associated with personal and work activities is a significant predictor of intended presence at work during an influenza pandemic. This means that correcting perceptual biases should be a public policy concern. These results have not been previously reported in the literature. Many organizational variables are also significant.

  20. H1N1 Influenza Pandemic of 2009 Compared With Other Influenza Pandemics: Epidemiology, Diagnosis, Management, Pulmonary Complications, and Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Namendys-Silva, Silvio A; de la Torre, Alethse; Macias, Alejandro E; Cordova-Villalobos, Jose Angel

    2010-05-01

    Influenza pandemics are complex events that have occurred frequently throughout human history, three during the past century alone. Now the world is facing the first 21st century pandemic, and the comparison among them is essential to identify common epidemiologic patterns, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. The evolution of medicine, including diagnostic and treatment options, the critical care advances, and global responses are new interventions that could modify the general outcome of the pandemic. Learning from past and current events could lead to a plan for prompt and efficient response in future pandemics and may be help us to predict the unpredictable.

  1. Effect of previous and current vaccination against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B during the post-pandemic period 2010-2016 in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Jesús; Pozo, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    Background Recent studies suggest that the protective effect of the current influenza vaccine could be influenced by vaccination in previous seasons. We estimated the combined effect of the previous and current influenza vaccines from the 2010–2011 season to the 2015–2016 season in Spain. Methods We performed a test-negative case-control study in patients ≥9 years old. We estimated the influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B virus. Results We included 1206 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases, 1358 A(H3N2) cases and 1079 B cases. IVE against A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in the pooled-season analysis was 53% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 21% to 72%) for those vaccinated only in the current season and 50% (95%CI: 23% to 68%) for those vaccinated in the both current and previous seasons. Against the influenza A(H3N2) virus, IVE was 17% (95%CI: -43% to 52%) for those vaccinated only in the current season and 3% (95%CI: -33% to 28%) for those vaccinated in both seasons. Regarding influenza B, we obtained similar IVEs for those vaccinated only in the current and those vaccinated in both seasons: 57% (95%CI: 12% to 79%) and 56% (95%CI: 36% to 70%), respectively. Conclusion Our results suggested no interference between the previous and current influenza vaccines against A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses, but a possible negative interference against A(H3N2) virus. PMID:28614376

  2. Effect of previous and current vaccination against influenza A(H1N1pdm09, A(H3N2, and B during the post-pandemic period 2010-2016 in Spain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin Gherasim

    Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that the protective effect of the current influenza vaccine could be influenced by vaccination in previous seasons. We estimated the combined effect of the previous and current influenza vaccines from the 2010-2011 season to the 2015-2016 season in Spain.We performed a test-negative case-control study in patients ≥9 years old. We estimated the influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE against influenza A(H1N1pdm09, A(H3N2, and B virus.We included 1206 influenza A(H1N1pdm09 cases, 1358 A(H3N2 cases and 1079 B cases. IVE against A(H1N1pdm09 virus in the pooled-season analysis was 53% (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 21% to 72% for those vaccinated only in the current season and 50% (95%CI: 23% to 68% for those vaccinated in the both current and previous seasons. Against the influenza A(H3N2 virus, IVE was 17% (95%CI: -43% to 52% for those vaccinated only in the current season and 3% (95%CI: -33% to 28% for those vaccinated in both seasons. Regarding influenza B, we obtained similar IVEs for those vaccinated only in the current and those vaccinated in both seasons: 57% (95%CI: 12% to 79% and 56% (95%CI: 36% to 70%, respectively.Our results suggested no interference between the previous and current influenza vaccines against A(H1N1pdm09 and B viruses, but a possible negative interference against A(H3N2 virus.

  3. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance...... systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model...... with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage...

  4. Molecular detection and typing of influenza viruses. Are we ready for an influenza pandemic?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, W.G.; Loon, A.M. van; Niedrig, M.; Meijer, A.; Lina, B.; Niesters, H.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We cannot predict when an influenza pandemic will occur or which variant of the virus will cause it. Little information is currently available on the ability of laboratories to detect and subtype influenza viruses including the avian influenza viruses. OBJECTIVES: To assess the ability

  5. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped. PMID:26658371

  6. People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

    2015-01-01

    Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

  7. The securitisation of pandemic influenza: framing, security and public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamradt-Scott, Adam; McInnes, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article examines how pandemic influenza has been framed as a security issue, threatening the functioning of both state and society, and the policy responses to this framing. Pandemic influenza has long been recognised as a threat to human health. Despite this, for much of the twentieth century it was not recognised as a security threat. In the decade surrounding the new millennium, however, the disease was successfully securitised with profound implications for public policy. This article addresses the construction of pandemic influenza as a threat. Drawing on the work of the Copenhagen School, it examines how it was successfully securitised at the turn of the millennium and with what consequences for public policy.

  8. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city and inves......INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... and investigated risk factors for severe mortality impact across regions. RESULTS: Chile exhibited two waves of excess mortality in winter 1957 and 1959 with a cumulative excess mortality rate of 12 per 10,000, and a ~10-fold mortality difference across provinces. High excess-mortality rates were associated...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...

  9. [Needs on information related to influenza pandemic by the public].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Ai-hua; Cai, Yan-shan; Feng, Wen-ru; Wang, Ming

    2009-11-01

    To understand the information needs on human infection with avian influenza (H5N1), A (H1N1) and influenza pandemic in different time periods and create well-targeted messages by the public, so as to develop communication with the public effectively when human infection with avian influenza (H5N1), A (H1N1) and influenza pandemic occur. Data were collected through questionnaire over telephone calls. The questionnaire was self-designed, revised after pilot testing. The effective response rate in this telephone survey was 54.33%, higher than those in Beijing and Shanghai. The respondents felt that government's propaganda during the influenza virus-active period was more helpful and instructive than those in the period when influenza was relatively inactive (chi(2) = 17.41, P = 0.000). Trust to the government by the public was higher in the influenza virus-active than in the relatively inactive period (chi(2) = 8.15, P = 0.004). As to the information needs, the respondents reflected that during the time period of relative influenza inactivity, they viewed the basic knowledge of human infection with avian influenza (H5N1) as their top priority, while in the influenza virus-active period, the feasible preventive measures was their top priority. The pandemic-related information needs in the influenza virus-active period and in the time period of relative influenza inactivity were similar, demonstrating that the respondents had no perceptual knowledge of influenza pandemic and had poor awareness on the pandemic. The respondents were not used to wear a mask to cover their mouths and noses when sneezing, but were quite knowledgeable about the following preventive measures as: avoid going out and at the crowded areas, wash hands frequently etc. Around 2% to 6% of the respondents did not have any information needs. The response rate in this telephone survey was fairly high, indicating that telephone survey was well accepted by Guangzhou residents. The public was satisfied

  10. Estimation of Needed Isolation Capacity for an Airborne Influenza Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subhash, Shobha S; Baracco, Gio; Miller, Shelly L; Eagan, Aaron; Radonovich, Lewis J

    2016-01-01

    We estimated the number of isolation beds needed to care for a surge in patients during an airborne-transmissible influenza pandemic. Based on US health system data, the amount of available airborne isolation beds needed for ill patients will be exceeded early in the course of a moderate or severe influenza pandemic, requiring medical facilities to find ways to further expand isolation bed capacity. Rather than building large numbers of permanent airborne infection isolation rooms to increase surge capacity, an investment that would come at great financial cost, it may be more prudent to prepare for wide-scale creation of just-in-time temporary negative-pressure wards.

  11. Pneumonia due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus and Klebsiella pneumoniae capsular serotype K16 in a patient with nasopharyngeal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chih-Cheng; Lee, Pei-Lin; Tan, Che-Kim; Huang, Yu-Tsung; Kao, Chiang-Lian; Wang, Jin-Town; Hsueh, Po-Ren

    2012-10-01

    Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Staphylococcus aureus and group A Streptoccocus, but no Klebsiella pneumoniae were responsible for bacterial coinfections during the 2009 and previous influenza pandemics. We hereby report a case with concurrent bacteremic pneumonia due to an unusual capsular serotype K16 K. pneumoniae and pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in a patient with nasopharyngeal cancer. Such a coinfection has not previously been described. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Response to 2009 pandemic influenza a (H1N1) vaccine in HIV-infected patients and the influence of prior seasonal influenza vaccination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Soonawala (Darius); G.F. Rimmelzwaan (Guus); L.B.S. Gelinck (Luc); L.G. Visser (Leo); F.P. Kroon (Frank)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The immunogenicity of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1) vaccines and the effect of previous influenza vaccination is a matter of current interest and debate. We measured the immune response to pH1N1 vaccine in HIV-infected patients and in healthy controls. In addition

  13. Pandemic Influenza Planning, United States, 1978–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strikas, Raymond A.; Gensheimer, Kathleen F.; Cox, Nancy J.; Redd, Stephen C.

    2013-01-01

    During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community’s response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises. PMID:23731839

  14. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Flores, Jose; Miller, Mark A; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.6 cases/10,000 population) on average during 1957-1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1-2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%-77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  15. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Flores, Jose; Miller, Mark A.; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    Background. Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. Methods. We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. Results. The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic. Conclusions. The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic. PMID:26908781

  16. Simplifying influenza vaccination during pandemics : sublingual priming and intramuscular boosting of immune responses with heterologous whole inactivated influenza vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murugappan, Senthil; Patil, Harshad P; Frijlink, Henderik W; Huckriede, Anke; Hinrichs, Wouter L J

    2014-01-01

    The best approach to control the spread of influenza virus during a pandemic is vaccination. Yet, an appropriate vaccine is not available early in the pandemic since vaccine production is time consuming. For influenza strains with a high pandemic potential like H5N1, stockpiling of vaccines has been

  17. Isolation and complete genomic characterization of pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza viruses from Cuban swine herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Lester Josué; Perera, Carmen Laura; Vega, Armando; Frías, Maria T; Rouseaux, Dagmar; Ganges, Llilianne; Nuñez, José Ignacio; Díaz de Arce, Heidy

    2013-06-01

    The emergence of the pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza virus poses a potential global threat for human and animal health. In this study, we carried out pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza virus surveillance in swine herds in Cuba intending to determine whether the virus was circulating among pig populations. As a result we describe, for the first time, the detection of pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza virus in swine herds in Cuba. In addition, phylogenetic analysis and molecular characterization of three viral isolates were performed. Phylogenetic relationships confirmed that all of the eight genes of the three isolates were derived from the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus. The Cuban isolates, formed an independent cluster within the pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza strains. Different molecular markers, previously described in pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza viruses, related with adaptive evolution, viral evasion from the host-immune response, virulence and dissemination were also present in Cuban pandemic H1N1/2009 isolates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT-CHE

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.

  19. Avian influenza A viruses: From zoonosis to pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Richard (Mathilde); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke); S. Herfst (Sander)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractZoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in

  20. Epidemiology, Clinical Features, Treatment, and Outcomes of Cases of Influenza A Infection During the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Yu Lee

    2012-08-01

    Conclusion: The clinical spectrum of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 infection was broad and the severity of disease was mild. Early antiviral treatment was effective in decreasing mortality and morbidity. Early and universal implementation of a novel influenza A vaccine is an effective approach for preventing pandemic community influenza outbreaks, particularly among infants and school-age children.

  1. Peering into the crystal ball: influenza pandemics and vaccine efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew S; Palese, Peter

    2014-04-10

    The looming threat of a new influenza virus pandemic has fueled ambitious efforts to devise more predictive parameters for assessing the risks associated with emergent virus strains. At the same time, a comprehensive understanding of critical factors that can accurately predict the outcome of vaccination is sorely needed in order to improve the effectiveness of influenza virus vaccines. Will new studies aimed at identifying adaptations required for virus transmissibility and systems-level analyses of influenza virus vaccine responses provide an improved framework for predictive models of viral adaptation and vaccine efficacy? Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Optimal Allocation of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Depends on Age, Risk and Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mylius, S.D.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Lugner, A.K.; Wallinga, J.

    2008-01-01

    The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two

  3. Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comas-García, Andreu; García-Sepúlveda, Christian A; Méndez-de Lira, José J; Aranda-Romo, Saray; Hernández-Salinas, Alba E; Noyola, Daniel E

    2011-03-01

    Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003-2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5-59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real-time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Pandemic Influenza Vaccines – The Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Cox

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent years’ enzootic spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 virus among poultry and the many lethal zoonoses in its wake has stimulated basic and applied pandemic vaccine research. The quest for an efficacious, affordable and timely accessible pandemic vaccine has been high on the agenda. When a variant H1N1 strain of swine origin emerged as a pandemic virus, it surprised many, as this subtype is well-known to man as a seasonal virus. This review will cover some difficult vaccine questions, such as the immunological challenges, the new production platforms, and the limited supply and global equity issues.

  5. [Paleopathology and the history of medicine: the example of influenza pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fangerau, H

    2010-11-01

    The paper examines the history of former influenza pandemics from the perspective of changing nosographic categories. Special emphasis is put on the so-called Spanish flu of 1918. Due to its high mortality rates this pandemic is often highlighted as a warning sign for what may happen during a future pandemic. After a short introduction into the problematic status of the validity of retrospective diagnoses the history of influenza pandemics is discussed. The pandemic of 1918 is analysed from the perspective of the public health system being connected to and relying on medical and scientific debates. The reasons for this pandemic's rank as the long forgotten pandemic are discussed.

  6. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George J

    2013-03-08

    The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal disruption and cost.

  7. Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

    2014-03-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

  8. Comparison of five influenza surveillance systems during the 2009 pandemic and their association with media attention.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, M.M.A. de; Meijer, A.; Friesema, I.H.M.; Donker, G.A.; Koppeschaar, C.E.; Hooiveld, M.; Ruigrok, N.; Hoek, W. van der

    2013-01-01

    Background: During the 2009 influenza pandemic period, routine surveillance of influenza-like-illness (ILI) was conducted in The Netherlands by a network of sentinel general practitioners (GPs). In addition during the pandemic period, four other ILI/influenza surveillance systems existed. For

  9. Antibody response of healthy children to pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esposito Susanna

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the proportion of pediatric pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza cases who showed seroconversion, the magnitude of this seroconversion, or the factors that can affect the antibody level evoked by the pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza. Aims of this study were to analyse antibody responses and the factors associated with high antibody titres in a cohort of children with naturally acquired A/H1N1/2009 influenza infection confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR. Results Demographic, clinical and virologic data were collected from 69 otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza (27 females, mean age ± SD: 5.01 ± 4.55 years. Their antibody levels against pandemic A/H1N1/2009 and seasonal A/H1N1 influenza viruses were evaluated by measuring hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies using standard assays. Sixty-four patients (92.8% with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza had A/H1N1/2009 antibody levels of ≥40, whereas only 28/69 (40.6% were seroprotected against seasonal A/H1N1 influenza virus. Those who were seroprotected against seasonal A/H1N1 virus were significantly older, significantly more often hospitalised, had a diagnosis of pneumonia significantly more frequently, and were significantly more often treated with oseltamivir than those who were not seroprotected (p Conclusions Otherwise healthy children seem to show seroprotective antibody titres after natural infection with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus. The strength of the immune response seems to be related to the severity of the disease, but not to previous seasonal A/H1N1 influenza immunity.

  10. Overcrowding and Mortality During the Influenza Pandemic of 1918.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aligne, C Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed more than 50 million people. Why was 1918 such an outlier? I. W. Brewer, a US Army physician at Camp Humphreys, Virginia, during the First World War, investigated several factors suspected of increasing the risk of severe flu: length of service in the army, race, dirty dishes, flies, dust, crowding, and weather. Overcrowding stood out, increasing the risk of flu 10-fold and the risk of flu complicated with pneumonia five-fold. Calculations made with Brewer's data show that the overall relationship between overcrowding and severe flu was highly significant (P pandemic flu illness.

  11. National surveillance of influenza-associated encephalopathy in Japan over six years, before and during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiaki Gu

    Full Text Available Influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE is a serious complication of influenza and is reported most frequently in Japan. This paper presents an assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of influenza A (H1N1 2009-associated encephalopathy in comparison to seasonal IAE, based on Japanese national surveillance data of influenza-like illness (ILI and IAE during flu seasons from 2004-2005 through 2009-2010. In each season before the pandemic, 34-55 IAE cases (mean 47.8; 95% confidence interval: 36.1-59.4 were reported, and these cases increased drastically to 331 during the 2009 pandemic (6.9-fold the previous seasons. Of the 331 IAE cases, 322 cases were reported as influenza A (H1N1 2009-associated encephalopathy. The peaks of IAE were consistent with the peaks of the influenza epidemics and pandemics. A total of 570 cases of IAE (seasonal A, 170; seasonal B, 50; influenza A (H1N1 2009, 322; unknown, 28 were reported over six seasons. The case fatality rate (CFR ranged from 4.8 to 18.2% before the pandemic seasons and 3.6% in the 2009 pandemic season. The CFR of pandemic-IAE was 3.7%, which is lower than that of influenza A-/B-associated encephalopathy (12.9%, p<0.001; 14.0%, p = 0.002; respectively. The median age of IAE was 7 years during the pandemic, which is higher than that of influenza A-/B-associated encephalopathy (4, p<0.001; 4.5, p = 0.006; respectively. However, the number of pandemic-IAE cases per estimated ILI outpatients peaked in the 0-4-year age group and data both before and during the pandemic season showed a U-shape pattern. This suggests that the high incidence of influenza infection in the 0-4 year age group may lead to a high incidence of IAE in the same age group in a future influenza season. Further studies should include epidemiologic case definitions and clinical details of IAE to gain a more accurate understanding of the epidemiologic status of IAE.

  12. A perspective on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuña-Soto, Rodolfo; Castañeda-Davila, Luis; Chowell, Gerardo

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we provide a chronological description of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico from the detection of severe respiratory disease among young adults in central Mexico and the identification of the novel swine-origin influenza virus to the response of Mexican public health authorities with the swift implementation of the National Preparedness and Response Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Furthermore, we review some features of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico in relation to the devastating 1918-1920 influenza pandemic and discuss opportunities for the application of mathematical modeling in the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza. The value of historical data in increasing our understanding of past pandemic events is highlighted.

  13. Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jesse L

    2016-02-15

    We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrestha Sirjana

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6% were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3% were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3% were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53% were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type. Conclusion The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type.

  15. Disease mongering and the fear of pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vance, Michael A

    2011-01-01

    The catastrophic H1N1 pandemic of 1918, which killed tens of millions, is now legendary, and influenza policy has centered on preventing another such disaster. There is reason for concern about influenza A. It can rapidly alter its genetic makeup to increase virulence and can jump from other species to humans. Nonetheless, ignorance about influenza in 1918, the lack of effective vaccines or antibacterial and antiviral drugs, and the social disruption caused by World War I also contributed heavily to the lethality, and it is unlikely that influenza of similar destructiveness will recur. The stupefying publicity over the threat of influenza has been generated partly by those, such as the pharmaceutical industry and influenza researchers, who benefit from the increased expenditures the publicity provokes. It is, in effect, disease mongering, the promotion of disease or dread of disease for one's own gain. Huge expenditures on influenza preparedness have produced little demonstrable benefit and some harm, independent of the wasted resources. Disease mongering, including spreading fear of influenza, is widespread and unhealthy and should be vigorously opposed.

  16. Pandemic Influenza: Perception of Medical Students Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... vaccination against H1N1and 31.9% refused joining voluntary work during H1N1 pandemic. Gender, age, marital status and family number were predictors r voluntary work. Conclusion: Defective knowledge and the role of the family are the main factors predispose to further attitude of medical students regarding voluntary ...

  17. The open-air treatment of pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobday, Richard A; Cason, John W

    2009-10-01

    The H1N1 "Spanish flu" outbreak of 1918-1919 was the most devastating pandemic on record, killing between 50 million and 100 million people. Should the next influenza pandemic prove equally virulent, there could be more than 300 million deaths globally. The conventional view is that little could have been done to prevent the H1N1 virus from spreading or to treat those infected; however, there is evidence to the contrary. Records from an "open-air" hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, suggest that some patients and staff were spared the worst of the outbreak. A combination of fresh air, sunlight, scrupulous standards of hygiene, and reusable face masks appears to have substantially reduced deaths among some patients and infections among medical staff. We argue that temporary hospitals should be a priority in emergency planning. Equally, other measures adopted during the 1918 pandemic merit more attention than they currently receive.

  18. Optimizing tactics for use of the U.S. antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nedialko B Dimitrov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2009, public health agencies across the globe worked to mitigate the impact of the swine-origin influenza A (pH1N1 virus. These efforts included intensified surveillance, social distancing, hygiene measures, and the targeted use of antiviral medications to prevent infection (prophylaxis. In addition, aggressive antiviral treatment was recommended for certain patient subgroups to reduce the severity and duration of symptoms. To assist States and other localities meet these needs, the U.S. Government distributed a quarter of the antiviral medications in the Strategic National Stockpile within weeks of the pandemic's start. However, there are no quantitative models guiding the geo-temporal distribution of the remainder of the Stockpile in relation to pandemic spread or severity. We present a tactical optimization model for distributing this stockpile for treatment of infected cases during the early stages of a pandemic like 2009 pH1N1, prior to the wide availability of a strain-specific vaccine. Our optimization method efficiently searches large sets of intervention strategies applied to a stochastic network model of pandemic influenza transmission within and among U.S. cities. The resulting optimized strategies depend on the transmissability of the virus and postulated rates of antiviral uptake and wastage (through misallocation or loss. Our results suggest that an aggressive community-based antiviral treatment strategy involving early, widespread, pro-rata distribution of antivirals to States can contribute to slowing the transmission of mildly transmissible strains, like pH1N1. For more highly transmissible strains, outcomes of antiviral use are more heavily impacted by choice of distribution intervals, quantities per shipment, and timing of shipments in relation to pandemic spread. This study supports previous modeling results suggesting that appropriate antiviral treatment may be an effective mitigation strategy during the early stages of

  19. Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Diego S

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. Methods To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Conclusions Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans.

  20. Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Among Child Care Center Directors in 2008 and 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, Timothy R; Walker, Benjamin H; Aird, Laura D; Southward, Linda; McCown, John S; Martin, Judith M

    2017-06-01

    Children in child care centers represent an important population to consider in attempts to mitigate the spread of an influenza pandemic. This national survey, conducted in 2008 and 2016, assessed directors' reports of their child care centers' pandemic influenza preparation before and after the 2009 H1N1 novel influenza pandemic. This was a telephone-based survey of child care center directors randomly selected from a national database of licensed US child care centers who were queried about their preparedness for pandemic influenza. We grouped conceptually related items in 6 domains into indexes: general infection control, communication, seasonal influenza control, use of health consultants, quality of child care, and perceived barriers. These indexes, along with other center and director characteristics, were used to predict pandemic influenza preparedness. Among 1500 and 518 child care center directors surveyed in 2008 and 2016, respectively, preparation for pandemic influenza was low and did not improve. Only 7% of directors had taken concrete actions to prepare their centers. Having served as a center director during the 2009 influenza pandemic did not influence preparedness. After adjusting for covariates, child care health consultation and years of director's experience were positively associated with pandemic influenza preparation, whereas experiencing perceived barriers such as lack of knowing what to do in the event of pandemic influenza, was negatively associated with pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic influenza preparedness of child care center's directors needs to improve. Child care health consultants are likely to be important collaborators in addressing this problem. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  1. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ORAU' s Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education (HCTT-CHE)

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

  2. Update on Influenza Diagnostics: Lessons from the Novel H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrickson, Kelly J.

    2012-01-01

    Summary: The menu of diagnostic tools that can be utilized to establish a diagnosis of influenza is extensive and includes classic virology techniques as well as new and emerging methods. This review of how the various existing diagnostic methods have been utilized, first in the context of a rapidly evolving outbreak of novel influenza virus and then during the different subsequent phases and waves of the pandemic, demonstrates the unique roles, advantages, and limitations of each of these methods. Rapid antigen tests were used extensively throughout the pandemic. Recognition of the low negative predictive values of these tests is important. Private laboratories with preexisting expertise, infrastructure, and resources for rapid development, validation, and implementation of laboratory-developed assays played an unprecedented role in helping to meet the diagnostic demands during the pandemic. FDA-cleared assays remain an important element of the diagnostic armamentarium during a pandemic, and a process must be developed with the FDA to allow manufacturers to modify these assays for detection of novel strains in a timely fashion. The need and role for subtyping of influenza viruses and antiviral susceptibility testing will likely depend on qualitative (circulating subtypes and their resistance patterns) and quantitative (relative prevalence) characterization of influenza viruses circulating during future epidemics and pandemics. PMID:22491775

  3. Pediatric Healthcare Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Stakeholder Meeting - Summary of Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the meeting was to bring together subject matter experts to develop tools and resources for use by the pediatric healthcare community in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza activity during the 2009 influenza season.

  4. Will routine annual influenza prevention and control systems serve the United States well in a pandemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringel, Jeanne S; Moore, Melinda; Zambrano, John; Lurie, Nicole

    2009-12-01

    To assess the extent to which the systems in place for prevention and control of routine annual influenza could provide the information and experience needed to manage a pandemic. The authors conducted a qualitative assessment based on key informant interviews and the review of relevant documents. Although there are a number of systems in place that would likely serve the United States well in a pandemic, much of the information and experience needed to manage a pandemic optimally is not available. Systems in place for routine annual influenza prevention and control are necessary but not sufficient for managing a pandemic, nor are they used to their full potential for pandemic preparedness. Pandemic preparedness can be strengthened by building more explicitly upon routine influenza activities and the public health system's response to the unique challenges that arise each influenza season (eg, vaccine supply issues, higher than normal rates of influenza-related deaths).

  5. Burden of hospitalizations for pandemic influenza in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sočan, Maja

    2011-01-01

    Aim To analyze the 2009/2010 epidemiological data of patients hospitalized for confirmed pandemic influenza in Slovenia. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of health statistical data collected in an electronic data set Diagnosis-related Group system. Data on age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses, duration of hospital stay, admission to the intensive care unit, disease outcome, and the week of the admission to the hospital were extracted for patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection. Results A total of 748 (hospitalization rate 37.4/100,000) patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection were admitted to 19 public hospitals and 7 private acute care providers during the period from September 28, 2009 to April 11, 2010. The highest admission rate was recorded for mid-November 2009. Out of 748 hospitalized patients, 411 (55%) were children younger than 15 years. Influenza was coded as the primary diagnosis in 536 patients. In 35% of the patients, influenza caused viral pneumonia. Fewer than one third of patients (28%) had a pre-existing chronic disease and/or condition predisposing them to complicated or adverse outcomes of influenza, most frequently chronic lung diseases, mainly asthma. A median hospital stay was 2 days for children and 5 days for adult patients. Longer hospitalization was required in patients who had a secondary diagnosis of influenza. Older male individuals suffering from pneumonia and chronic diseases were overrepresented among cases admitted to the intensive care units. Conclusions The epidemiological data extracted from the Diagnosis-related Group system in Slovenia were comparable with the data on pandemic patients published elsewhere. PMID:21495197

  6. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash KC, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A pos...

  7. Age- and Sex-Specific Mortality Associated With the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Eisenstein, Jana; Reid, Ann H.; Janczewski, Thomas A.; Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2013-01-01

    Background. The reasons for the unusual age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic remain unknown. Here we characterize pandemic-related mortality by single year of age in a unique statewide Kentucky data set and explore breakpoints in the age curves. Methods. Individual death certificates from Kentucky during 1911–1919 were abstracted by medically trained personnel. Pandemic-associated excess mortality rates were calculated by subtracting observed rates during pandemic months from rates in previous years, separately for each single year of age and by sex. Results. The age profile of excess mortality risk in fall 1918 was characterized by a maximum among infants, a minimum at ages 9–10 years, a maximum at ages 24–26 years, and a second minimum at ages 56–59 years. The excess mortality risk in young adults had been greatly attenuated by winter 1919. The age breakpoints of mortality risk did not differ between males and females. Conclusions. The observed mortality breakpoints in male and female cohorts born during 1859–1862, 1892–1894, and 1908–1909 did not coincide with known dates of historical pandemics. The atypical age mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 pandemic cannot be explained by military crowding, war-related factors, or prior immunity alone and likely result from a combination of unknown factors. PMID:23230061

  8. Cold-Chain Logistics: A Study of the Department of the Defense OCONUS Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Distribution Network

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jones, Daniel; Tecmire, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this MBA project is to suggest a standardized distribution process for the DoD of the Pandemic Influenza vaccine, filling an existing void in the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza...

  9. Two resource distribution strategies for dynamic mitigation of influenza pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Uribe-Sánchez

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Andrés Uribe-Sánchez, Alex Savachkin1Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USAAbstract: As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic ­containment and mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capabilities. We ­present two simulation-based optimization models for developing dynamic predictive resource ­distribution strategies for cross-regional pandemic outbreaks. In both models, the underlying simulation mimics the disease and population dynamics of the affected regions. The quantity-based optimization model generates a progressive allocation of limited quantities of mitigation resources, including vaccines, antiviral, administration capacities, and social distancing enforcement resources. The budget-based optimization model strives instead allocating a total resource budget. Both models seek to minimize the impact of ongoing outbreaks and the expected impact of potential outbreaks. The models incorporate measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the societal and economic costs of lost productivity and medical expenses. The models were calibrated using historic pandemic data and implemented on a sample outbreak in Florida, with over four million inhabitants. The quantity-based model was found to be inferior to the budget-based model, which was advantageous in its ability to balance the varying relative cost and effectiveness of individual resources. The models are intended to assist public health policy makers in developing effective distribution policies for mitigation of influenza pandemics.Keywords: pandemic, mitigation, distribution, dynamic, resources, budget

  10. Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Prior to Pandemic Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    H3). These two samples became the first reported cases of the pandemic 2009/ H1N1 influenza virus . The first reportable characterization was made...identified as “untypeable” influenza A virus . In the case of the 28 March sample, this diagnosis was made using an in-house accredited (homebrew...as well as reassortment. TABLE 2. Primer pair detection for 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and FluMist trivalent influenza vaccine and base

  11. [Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

  12. Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-11-01

    Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Continued dominance of pandemic A(H1N1 2009 influenza in Victoria, Australia in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Fielding

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The 2010 Victorian influenza season was characterized by normal seasonal influenza activity and the dominance of the pandemic A(H1N1 2009 strain. General Practice Sentinel Surveillance rates peaked at 9.4 ILI cases per 1000 consultations in week 36 for metropolitan practices, and at 10.5 ILI cases per 1000 in the following week for rural practices. Of the 678 ILI cases, 23% were vaccinated, a significantly higher percentage than in previous years. A significantly higher percentage of ILI patients were swabbed in 2010 compared to 2003–2008, but similar to 2009, with a similar percentage being positive for influenza as in previous years. Vaccination rates increased with patient age. Melbourne Medical Deputising Service rates peaked in week 35 at 19.1 ILI cases per 1000 consultations. Of the 1914 cases of influenza notified to the Department of Health, Victoria, 1812 (95% were influenza A infections - 1001 (55% pandemic A(H1N1 2009, 4 (<1% A(H3N2 and 807 (45% not subtyped; 88 (5% were influenza B; and 14 (< 1% were influenza A and B co-infections. The World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza tested 403 isolates of which 261 were positive for influenza, 250 of which were influenza A and 11 were influenza B. Ninety-two per cent of the influenza A viruses were pandemic A(H1N1 2009, and following antigenic analysis all of these were found to be similar to the current vaccine strain. Three viruses (0.9% were found to be oseltamivir resistant due to an H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase gene.

  14. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  15. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal

  16. Treatment and Prevention of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rewar, Suresh; Mirdha, Dashrath; Rewar, Prahlad

    2015-01-01

    Swine influenza is a respiratory infection common to pigs worldwide caused by type A influenza viruses, principally subtypes H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, and H2N3. Swine influenza viruses also can cause moderate to severe illness in humans and affect persons of all age groups. People in close contact with swine are at especially high risk. Until recently, epidemiological study of influenza was limited to resource-rich countries. The World Health Organization declared an H1N1 pandemic on June 11, 2009, after more than 70 countries reported 30,000 cases of H1N1 infection. In 2015, incidence of swine influenza increased substantially to reach a 5-year high. In India in 2015, 10,000 cases of swine influenza were reported with 774 deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend real-time polymerase chain reaction as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. Antiviral drugs are the mainstay of clinical treatment of swine influenza and can make the illness milder and enable the patient to feel better faster. Antiviral drugs are most effective when they are started within the first 48 hours after the clinical signs begin, although they also may be used in severe or high-risk cases first seen after this time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu, Genentech) or zanamivir (Relenza, GlaxoSmithKline). Prevention of swine influenza has 3 components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans. Because of limited treatment options, high risk for secondary infection, and frequent need for intensive care of individuals with H1N1 pneumonia, environmental control, including vaccination of high-risk populations and public education are critical to control of swine influenza out breaks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing the State of Knowledge Regarding the Effectiveness of Interventions to Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Saunders-Hastings

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, to which humans are immunologically naïve, emerges to cause infection and illness on a global scale. Differences in the viral properties of pandemic strains, relative to seasonal ones, can alter the effectiveness of interventions typically implemented to control seasonal influenza burden. As a result, annual control activities may not be sufficient to contain an influenza pandemic.This study seeks to inform pandemic policy and planning initiatives by reviewing the effectiveness of previous interventions to reduce pandemic influenza transmission and infection. Results will inform the planning and design of more focused in-depth systematic reviews for specific types of interventions, thus providing the most comprehensive and current understanding of the potential for alternative interventions to mitigate the burden of pandemic influenza.A systematic review and narrative synthesis of existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining intervention effectiveness in containing pandemic influenza transmission was conducted using information collected from five databases (PubMed, Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Cinahl/EBSCO. Two independent reviewers conducted study screening and quality assessment, extracting data related to intervention impact and effectiveness.Most included reviews were of moderate to high quality. Although the degree of statistical heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis, the present systematic review examines the wide variety of interventions that can impact influenza transmission in different ways. While it appears that pandemic influenza vaccination provides significant protection against infection, there was insufficient evidence to conclude that antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal influenza cross-protection, or a range of non-pharmaceutical strategies would provide appreciable protection when implemented in isolation. It is likely that an optimal intervention strategy will

  18. Dynamic Multicore Processing for Pandemic Influenza Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Henrik; Timpka, Toomas; Spreco, Armin; Dahlström, Örjan; Strömgren, Magnus; Holm, Einar

    2016-01-01

    Pandemic simulation is a useful tool for analyzing outbreaks and exploring the impact of variations in disease, population, and intervention models. Unfortunately, this type of simulation can be quite time-consuming especially for large models and significant outbreaks, which makes it difficult to run the simulations interactively and to use simulation for decision support during ongoing outbreaks. Improved run-time performance enables new applications of pandemic simulations, and can potentially allow decision makers to explore different scenarios and intervention effects. Parallelization of infection-probability calculations and multicore architectures can take advantage of modern processors to achieve significant run-time performance improvements. However, because of the varying computational load during each simulation run, which originates from the changing number of infectious persons during the outbreak, it is not useful to us the same multicore setup during the simulation run. The best performance can be achieved by dynamically changing the use of the available processor cores to balance the overhead of multithreading with the performance gains of parallelization.

  19. Rapid Influenza Antigen Test for Diagnosis of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

    OpenAIRE

    Louie, Janice K.; Guevara, Hugo; Boston, Erica; Dahlke, Melissa; Nevarez, Maria; Kong, Tong; Schechter, Robert; Glaser, Carol A.; Schnurr, David P.

    2010-01-01

    We compared the QuickVue Influenza test with PCR for diagnosing pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in 404 persons with influenza-like illness. Overall sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 66%, 84%, 84%, and 64%, respectively. Rapid test results should be interpreted cautiously when pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus is suspected.

  20. Nationwide surveillance of influenza during the pandemic (2009-10 and post-pandemic (2010-11 periods in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jen-Hsiang Chuang

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although WHO declared the world moving into the post-pandemic period on August 10, 2010, influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus continued to circulate globally. Its impact was expected to continue during the 2010-11 influenza season. This study describes the nationwide surveillance findings of the pandemic and post-pandemic influenza periods in Taiwan and assesses the impact of influenza A(H1N1 2009 during the post-pandemic period. METHODS: The Influenza Laboratory Surveillance Network consisted of 12 contract laboratories for collecting and testing samples with acute respiratory tract infections. Surveillance of emergency room visits and outpatient department visits for influenza-like illness (ILI were conducted using the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance system and the National Health Insurance program data, respectively. Hospitalized cases with severe complications and deaths were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. RESULTS: During the 2009-10 influenza season, pandemic A(H1N1 2009 was the predominant circulating strain and caused 44 deaths. However, the 2010-11 influenza season began with A(H3N2 being the predominant circulating strain, changing to A(H1N1 2009 in December 2010. Emergency room and outpatient department ILI surveillance displayed similar trends. By March 31, 2011, there were 1,751 cases of influenza with severe complications; 50.1% reported underlying diseases. Of the reported cases, 128 deaths were associated with influenza. Among these, 93 (72.6% were influenza A(H1N1 2009 and 30 (23.4% A(H3N2. Compared to the pandemic period, during the immediate post-pandemic period, increased number of hospitalizations and deaths were observed, and the patients were consistently older. CONCLUSIONS: Reemergence of influenza A(H1N1 2009 during the 2010-11 influenza season had an intense activity with age distribution shift. To further mitigate the impact of future influenza epidemics, Taiwan must

  1. Investment decisions in influenza pandemic contingency planning : cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral drugs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lugner, Anna K.; Postma, Maarten J.

    2009-01-01

    Background: The threat of an influenza pandemic has led to stockpiling of antiviral drugs in order to mitigate a plausible outbreak. If the stockpile would be used in relation to the recent pandemic alert, an investment decision about renewing the stock for a possible subsequent pandemic is

  2. Identification of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 variants during the first 2009 influenza outbreak in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zepeda, Hector M; Perea-Araujo, Lizbeth; Zarate-Segura, Paola B; Vázquez-Pérez, Joel A; Miliar-García, Angel; Garibay-Orijel, Claudio; Domínguez-López, Aarón; Badillo-Corona, Jesús A; López-Orduña, Eduardo; García-González, Octavio P; Villaseñor-Ruíz, Ignacio; Ahued-Ortega, Armando; Aguilar-Faisal, Leopoldo; Bravo, Jorge; Lara-Padilla, Eleazar; García-Cavazos, Ricardo J

    2010-05-01

    In March 2009, public health surveillance detected increased numbers of influenza-like illness presenting to hospitals in Mexico City. The aetiological agent was subsequently determined to be a novel influenza A (H1N1) triple reassortant, which has spread worldwide. As a consequence the World Health Organisation has declared the first Influenza pandemic of the 21st century. To describe clinically and molecularly the first outbreak of influenza A pH1N1 (2009) during 1-5 May to establish a baseline of epidemiological data for pH1N1. Also, to monitor for the emergence of antiviral resistance, and mutations affecting virulence and transmissibility. Samples were collected from 751 patients with influenza-like symptoms throughout Mexico City and were tested for influenza A pH1N1 (2009) using real-time PCR. In the samples that were positive for influenza A pH1N1 (2009) fragments from the haemagglutinin (H1) and neuraminidase (N1) genes were sequenced. A total of 203/751 (27%) patients were positive for the pandemic H1N1 (2009) virus (53% male and 47% female). The 0-12-year-old group was the most affected 85/751 (42%). Sequence analysis showed five new variants of the pandemic H1N1 (2009) virus for NA: G249E (GQ292900), M269I (GQ292892), Y274H (GQ292913), T332A (GQ292933), N344K (GQ292882), and four variants for HA: N461K (GQ293006), K505R (GQ292989), I435V (GQ292995), I527N (GQ292997). We have provided a baseline of epidemiological data from the first outbreak of influenza A pH1N1 (2009) during 1-5 May in Mexico City. The sequencing of partial fragments of the HA and NA genes did not show the presence of previously described mutations affecting known sites of antiviral resistance in seasonal influenza A such as the H275Y (oseltamivir resistance), R293 or N295 etc. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

    2016-03-01

    The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  4. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  5. Analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 outcomes in 19 European countries: association with completeness of national strategic plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeyai, Aronrag; Cooper, Ben S; Coker, Richard

    2013-03-21

    To describe changes in reported influenza activity associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in European countries and determine whether there is a correlation between these changes and completeness of national strategic pandemic preparedness. A retrospective correlational study. Countries were included if their national strategic plans had previously been analysed and if weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) data from sentinel networks between week 21, 2006 and week 20, 2010 were more than 50% complete. For each country we calculated three outcomes: the percentage change in ILI peak height during the pandemic relative to the prepandemic mean; the timing of the ILI peak and the percentage change in total cases relative to the prepandemic mean. Correlations between these outcomes and completeness of a country's national strategic pandemic preparedness plan were assessed using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. Nineteen countries were included. The ILI peak occurred earlier than the mean seasonal peak in 17 countries. In 14 countries the pandemic peak was higher than the seasonal peak, though the difference was large only in Norway, the UK and Greece. Nine countries experienced more total ILI cases during the pandemic compared with the mean for prepandemic years. Five countries experienced two distinct pandemic peaks. There was no clear pattern of correlation between overall completeness of national strategic plans and pandemic influenza outcome measures and no evidence of association between these outcomes and components of pandemic plans that might plausibly affect influenza outcomes (public health interventions, vaccination, antiviral use, public communication). Amongst the 17 countries with a clear pandemic peak, only the correlation between planning for essential services and change in total ILI cases significantly differed from zero: correlation coefficient (95% CI) 0.50 (0.02, 0.79). The diversity of pandemic influenza outcomes across Europe is not

  6. H1N1 influenza pandemics: comparing the events of 2009 in Mexico with those of 1976 and 1918-1919.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Paredes, Carlos; Hernandez-Ramos, Isabel; Del Rio, Carlos; Alexander, Kelly T; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Santos-Preciado, Jose I

    2009-11-01

    Outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) of avian- or swine-related origin have substantially impacted human populations. The most dramatic pandemic of influenza H1N1 occurred during 1918-1919 producing significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the 20th century, two other major pandemics took place but they were the H2N2 and H3N2 reassorted influenza strains. In 1976, a small outbreak of swine-related H1N1 in the U.S. led to a national scare but without any significant public health impact. More recently, in April 2009, in Mexico, and subsequently worldwide, an influenza (H1N1) triple reassortant strain produced >200,000 laboratory-confirmed cases and resulted in >2000 deaths. In August 2009, WHO declared this outbreak as the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. It is critical to apply lessons learned during previous pandemics to mitigate the public health impact of the ongoing influenza pandemic in 2009. In particular, it is useful to compare the events in Mexico in 2009 to those during the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918-1919.

  7. Differential Immune Profiles in Two Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Waves at Pandemic Epicenter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Rodríguez-Abrego, Gabriela; Mancilla-Herrera, Ismael; Domínguez-Cerezo, Esteban; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Lozano-Patiño, Fernando; Laredo-Sánchez, Fernando; Malagón-Rangel, José; Nellen-Hummel, Haiko; González-Bonilla, César; Arteaga-Troncoso, Gabriel; Cérbulo-Vázquez, Arturo; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

    2015-11-01

    Severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection cases are characterized by sustained immune activation during influenza pandemics. Seasonal flu data suggest that immune mediators could be modified by wave-related changes. Our aim was to determine the behavior of soluble and cell-related mediators in two waves at the epicenter of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Leukocyte surface activation markers were studied in serum from peripheral blood samples, collected from the 1(st) (April-May, 2009) and 2(nd) (October 2009-February 2010) pandemic waves. Patients with confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection (H1N1), influenza-like illness (ILI) or healthy donors (H) were analyzed. Serum IL-6, IL-4 and IL-10 levels were elevated in H1N1 patients from the 2(nd) pandemic wave. Additionally, the frequency of helper and cytotoxic T cells was reduced during the 1(st) wave, whereas CD69 expression in helper T cells was increased in the 2(nd) wave for both H1N1 and ILI patients. In contrast, CD62L expression in granulocytes from the ILI group was increased in both waves but in monocytes only in the 2(nd) wave. Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells (TREM)-1 expression was elevated only in H1N1 patients at the 1(st) wave. Our results show that during the 2009 influenza pandemic a T cell activation phenotype is observed in a wave-dependent fashion, with an expanded activation in the 2(nd) wave, compared to the 1(st) wave. Conversely, granulocyte and monocyte activation is infection-dependent. This evidence collected at the pandemic epicenter in 2009 could help us understand the differences in the underlying cellular mechanisms that drive the wave-related immune profile behaviors that occur against influenza viruses during pandemics. Copyright © 2015 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K; Milne, George J

    2014-05-16

    A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used pre-emptively. While several previous studies have investigated the cost effectiveness of pre-emptive vaccination strategies, they have not been directly compared to realistic reactive vaccination strategies. An individual-based simulation model of ~30,000 people was used to examine a pre-emptive vaccination strategy, assuming vaccination conducted prior to a pandemic using a low-efficacy vaccine. A reactive vaccination strategy, assuming a 6-month delay between pandemic emergence and availability of a high-efficacy vaccine, was also modelled. Social distancing and antiviral interventions were examined in combination with these alternative vaccination strategies. Moderate and severe pandemics were examined, based on estimates of transmissibility and clinical severity of the 1957 and 1918 pandemics respectively, and the cost effectiveness of each strategy was evaluated. Provided that a pre-pandemic vaccine achieved at least 30% efficacy, pre-emptive vaccination strategies were found to be more cost effective when compared to reactive vaccination strategies. Reactive vaccination coupled with sustained social distancing and antiviral interventions was found to be as effective at saving lives as pre-emptive vaccination coupled with limited duration social distancing and antiviral use, with both strategies saving approximately 420 life-years per 10,000 population for a moderate pandemic with a basic reproduction number of 1.9 and case fatality rate of 0.25%. Reactive vaccination was however more costly due to larger productivity losses incurred by sustained social distancing, costing $8 million per 10,000 population ($19,074/LYS) versus $6.8 million per 10

  9. A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used pre-emptively. While several previous studies have investigated the cost effectiveness of pre-emptive vaccination strategies, they have not been directly compared to realistic reactive vaccination strategies. Methods An individual-based simulation model of ~30,000 people was used to examine a pre-emptive vaccination strategy, assuming vaccination conducted prior to a pandemic using a low-efficacy vaccine. A reactive vaccination strategy, assuming a 6-month delay between pandemic emergence and availability of a high-efficacy vaccine, was also modelled. Social distancing and antiviral interventions were examined in combination with these alternative vaccination strategies. Moderate and severe pandemics were examined, based on estimates of transmissibility and clinical severity of the 1957 and 1918 pandemics respectively, and the cost effectiveness of each strategy was evaluated. Results Provided that a pre-pandemic vaccine achieved at least 30% efficacy, pre-emptive vaccination strategies were found to be more cost effective when compared to reactive vaccination strategies. Reactive vaccination coupled with sustained social distancing and antiviral interventions was found to be as effective at saving lives as pre-emptive vaccination coupled with limited duration social distancing and antiviral use, with both strategies saving approximately 420 life-years per 10,000 population for a moderate pandemic with a basic reproduction number of 1.9 and case fatality rate of 0.25%. Reactive vaccination was however more costly due to larger productivity losses incurred by sustained social distancing, costing $8 million per 10,000 population ($19,074/LYS) versus $6

  10. An estimate of the incidence of influenza-like illness during the influenza pandemic of 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellido-Blasco, Juan B; Pardo-Serrano, Francisco; Ballester-Rodríguez, Isabel; Arnedo-Pena, Alberto; Tirado-Balaguer, M Dolores; Romeu-García, M Ángeles; Silvestre-Silvestre, Ester; Meseguer-Ferrer, Noemí; Herrero-Carot, Concha; Caylà-Buqueres, Joan A

    2015-08-01

    The influenza pandemic of 2009 had a great social impact. Many health resources were devoted to the care, prevention and surveillance of this disease. Epidemiological surveillance is based on the reporting of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza cases. The objective was to estimate the true incidence of ILI during the influenza pandemic of 2009. The capture-recapture method was applied during the month of highest influenza incidence in Castellón. Two notification systems were used: (i)electronic reporting of Notifiable Diseases (ND), and (ii)laboratory-based (LAB) data collection. Estimates were made by stratifying by age group and week. Independence coefficients were calculated for those strata. No dependence was found between stratification variables and the reporting system. A total of 7,181 ND cases and 524 LAB cases were identified, of which 211 were recorded in both systems. The estimated total of cases was 17,785 in a single month. In the study period, almost 4% of people in the area suffered flu symptoms (cumulative incidence), with 1% being affected each day (daily prevalence). The sensitivity of the ND system was 40%, i.e., the percentage of patients seeking primary care. To obtain an estimate of the actual incidence of influenza-like illness in the population during a pandemic period, the number of medical consultations should be multiplied by a factor of 2.5. This factor is lower than that estimated for periods without pandemic alert. Copyright © 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  11. Pandemic Flu

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... Planning State and Local Government Planning More 1918 Pandemic Flu Commemoration 100 years later, read about the ...

  12. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

    2007-07-17

    Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium businesses should emphasise the severity of the consequences to their

  13. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Methods Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Results Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Conclusion Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium

  14. Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

    2015-10-01

    After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be

  15. A comparison of H1N1 influenza among pediatric inpatients in the pandemic and post pandemic era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Suchitra; Torok, Michelle R; Bagdure, Dayanand; Cunningham, Maureen A; Williams, Joshua T B; Curtis, Donna J; Wilson, Karen; Dominguez, Samuel R

    2015-10-01

    The novel influenza A H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) strain emerged in 2009, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. It is not known whether illness associated with A(H1N1) pdm09 in the post-pandemic era exhibits a similar disease profile. The objectives of this study were to compare the burden of disease of A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza from the 2009 pandemic year to the post-pandemic years (2010-2014), and to explore potential reasons for any differences. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of inpatients admitted to Children's Hospital Colorado with a positive respiratory specimen for influenza from May-December, 2009 and December, 2010-April, 2014. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to compare the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with H1N1 during the two periods. There were 388 inpatients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in 2009, and 117 during the post-pandemic years. Ninety-four percent of all H1N1 during the post-pandemic era was observed during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic year were less likely to have an underlying medical condition (PH1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic years appeared to have less severe disease than patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the pandemic year. The reasons for this difference are likely multifactorial. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Remembering the 1918 influenza pandemic: national survey of memorials and scope for enhancing educational value around pandemic preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Ferguson, Catharine; Rice, Geoffrey; Baker, Michael G; Schrader, Ben; Clement, Christine; Thomson, George

    2017-11-10

    To systematically identify physical memorials to the 1918 influenza pandemic in an entire country. Internet searches, contact with local historians and field expeditions were conducted. Despite the high impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New Zealand (~8,600 deaths), only seven publicly accessible local memorials which referred this pandemic were identified. Another 11 memorials were identified, but these were in private settings or did not refer to the pandemic. There is no national memorial and a marked contrast exists with the number of war memorials (260 times more per 1,000 deaths for one war), and for 20 smaller mass fatality events (one of which has eight memorials alone). The current educational value of these pandemic memorials is likely to be minimal since only three are in cities, there is a lack of supporting signage and there are no links to online resources. Despite the major impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New Zealand, publicly accessible memorials were found to be rare. This was in marked contrast to other disaster-related memorials and particularly to war memorials. There appears to be major scope for enhancing public education around the persisting threat of future pandemics via improved use of physical memorials and linkages to online resources.

  17. Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

    2011-02-01

    The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  18. Willingness to accept H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine: A cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Carmen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1 infection has alerted many governments to make preparedness plan to control the spread of influenza A (H1N1 infection. Vaccination for influenza is one of the most important primary preventative measures to reduce the disease burden. Our study aims to assess the willingness of nurses who work for the community nursing service (CNS in Hong Kong on their acceptance of influenza A (H1N1 influenza vaccination. Methods 401 questionnaires were posted from June 24, 2009 to June 30, 2009 to community nurses with 67% response rate. Results of the 267 respondents on their willingness to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccine were analyzed. Results Twenty-seven percent of respondents were willing to accept influenza vaccination if vaccines were available. Having been vaccinated for seasonable influenza in the previous 12 months were significantly independently associated with their willingness to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccination (OR = 4.03; 95% CI: 2.03-7.98. Conclusions Similar to previous findings conducted in hospital healthcare workers and nurses, we confirmed that the willingness of community nurses to accept influenza A (H1N1 vaccination is low. Future studies that evaluate interventions to address nurses' specific concerns or interventions that aim to raise the awareness among nurses on the importance of influenza A (H1N1 vaccination to protect vulnerable patient populations is needed.

  19. Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Wang, Xiaohong; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Miller, Mark A

    2009-12-03

    We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters. This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.

  20. Natality Decline and Miscarriages Associated With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: The Scandinavian and United States Experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile

    2011-01-01

    Background. Although pregnancy is a recognized risk factor for severe influenza infection, the effect of influenza on miscarriages and births remains unclear. We examined the relationship between influenza and birth rates during the 1918 pandemic in the United States, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway...... of peak pandemic exposure and depressions in birth rates, and identified pregnancy stages at risk of influenza-related miscarriage. Results. Birth rates declined in all study populations in spring 1919 by a mean of 2.2 births per 1000 persons, representing a 5%–15% drop below baseline levels (P ...). The 1919 natality depression reached its trough 6.1–6.8 months after the autumn pandemic peak, suggesting that missing births were attributable to excess first trimester miscarriages in ∼1 in 10 women who were pregnant during the peak of the pandemic. Pandemic-related mortality was insufficient to explain...

  1. [Survey about responsiveness of third-level hospitals to a medical disaster: after the pandemic influenza in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serna-Ojeda, Juan Carlos; Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E; Mansilla-Olivares, Armando; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Polanco-González, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The recent pandemic influenza AH1N1 virus made it clear that planning for medical disaster response is critical. To know the responsiveness of a sample of highly specialized hospitals in Mexico to a medical disaster, with the previous pandemic influenza AH1N1 as reference. A survey was conducted among the Medical Directors of a sample of highly specialized hospitals, covering: previous experience with the pandemic influenza, space considerations, material resources, staff, logistics, and current general perspectives. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis. A 95% response was obtained from the institutions (19 hospitals). Of these, 47.4% considered that the medical institution was not ready to respond to pandemic influenza. The median surge capacity for the Intensive Care Unit beds was 30% (range 0 to 32 beds). The least reserve in medication was found in the antivirals (26.3%). Only 47.4% considered having enough intensive care nurses and 57.9% enough respiratory technicians; 42.1% would not have an easy access to resources in an emergency. Prevention is key in responsiveness to medical disasters, and therefore the basic steps for planning strategies must be considered.

  2. Real-time modelling of a pandemic influenza outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birrell, Paul J; Pebody, Richard G; Charlett, André; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; De Angelis, Daniela

    2017-10-01

    Real-time modelling is an essential component of the public health response to an outbreak of pandemic influenza in the UK. A model for epidemic reconstruction based on realistic epidemic surveillance data has been developed, but this model needs enhancing to provide spatially disaggregated epidemic estimates while ensuring that real-time implementation is feasible. To advance state-of-the-art real-time pandemic modelling by (1) developing an existing epidemic model to capture spatial variation in transmission, (2) devising efficient computational algorithms for the provision of timely statistical analysis and (3) incorporating the above into freely available software. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling was used to derive Bayesian statistical inference using 2009 pandemic data from two candidate modelling approaches: (1) a parallel-region (PR) approach, splitting the pandemic into non-interacting epidemics occurring in spatially disjoint regions; and (2) a meta-region (MR) approach, treating the country as a single meta-population with long-range contact rates informed by census data on commuting. Model discrimination is performed through posterior mean deviance statistics alongside more practical considerations. In a real-time context, the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms to carry out real-time analyses is investigated as an alternative to MCMC using simulated data designed to sternly test both algorithms. SMC-derived analyses are compared with 'gold-standard' MCMC-derived inferences in terms of estimation quality and computational burden. The PR approach provides a better and more timely fit to the epidemic data. Estimates of pandemic quantities of interest are consistent across approaches and, in the PR approach, across regions (e.g. R 0 is consistently estimated to be 1.76-1.80, dropping by 43-50% during an over-summer school holiday). A SMC approach was developed, which required some tailoring to tackle a sudden 'shock' in the data

  3. The high burden of pneumonia on US emergency departments during the 2009 influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self, Wesley H; Griffin, Marie R; Zhu, Yuwei; Dupont, William D; Barrett, Tyler W; Grijalva, Carlos G

    2014-02-01

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, unusual influenza activity outside the typical winter season provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the association between influenza and pneumonia incidence. We sought to quantify the impact of the 2009 pandemic on the incidence of emergency department (ED) visits for pneumonia in the United States (US). Using the Nationwide Emergency Department Survey, we estimated monthly counts and rates of excess all-cause pneumonia ED visits in the US attributable to the pandemic by comparing observed pneumonia ED visits during the pandemic (April 2009-March 2010) to expected values modeled from the three prior years. The pandemic was associated with an excess of 180,560 pneumonia ED visits or 0.59 excess pneumonia visits per 1000 US population (95% confidence interval: 0.55, 0.62). These excess visits accounted for 7.0% of all pneumonia ED visits during the pandemic year. The greatest excess occurred during months with highest influenza activity (September-November 2009). Persons aged pandemic, especially during peak influenza activity, suggesting a strong association between influenza activity and pneumonia incidence during the pandemic period. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. All rights reserved.

  4. Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

    2015-01-01

    The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

  5. Systematic review of economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Román Pérez Velasco

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted. METHODS: The search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers. RESULTS: 44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita, the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries. CONCLUSION: The available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost

  6. Systematic review of economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Velasco, Román; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Wichmann, Kamonthip; Mohara, Adun; Kotirum, Surachai; Tantivess, Sripen; Vallenas, Constanza; Harmanci, Hande; Teerawattananon, Yot

    2012-01-01

    Although public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted. The search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers. 44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita), the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries. The available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost effectiveness should be readily implemented in forthcoming events that

  7. Preparing public health nurses for pandemic influenza through distance learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macario, Everly; Benton, Lisa D; Yuen, Janet; Torres, Mara; Macias-Reynolds, Violet; Holsclaw, Patricia; Nakahara, Natalie; Jones, Marcy Connell

    2007-01-01

    As a global influenza pandemic appears imminent with the spread of avian influenza, the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) and the California Distance Learning Health Network (CDLHN) presented a live 90-min satellite broadcast and subsequent 2-hr small group problem-solving tabletop exercise to practice interventions needed to minimize the consequences of a pandemic event. Public health nurses (PHNs), managers, and other staff in laboratories, clinical care, veterinary medicine, environmental health, public information and safety, emergency management, and transportation down linked the program, broadcast by satellite from the CDHS Richmond Laboratory Campus, to view on-site locally. PHNs represented the professional category with the highest number of participants for those conducting the program outside of California. For those in California, PHNs represented the professional category with the second highest number of participants. Participants and distance-learning facilitators completed a training evaluation survey. Continuing education credits were provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to participants who completed the satellite broadcast evaluation. This distance-learning-by-satellite method of education paired with an activities-based tabletop exercise, and a focus on local rather than State-based responsibility, marks an innovative method of training PHNs and other staff in emergency preparedness response.

  8. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 with neurological manifestations, a case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noriega, Luis Miguel; Verdugo, Renato J; Araos, Rafael; Munita, José Manuel; Díaz, Violeta; Marcotti, Alejandra; Perez, Jorge; Gonzalez, Patricia; Thompson, Luis; Canals, Magdalena; Hoppe, Arnold; Mounts, Anthony W; Vial, Pablo A

    2010-05-01

    Describe a series of atypical presentations of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Description of case series using hospital records. Six patients aged 1 to 65 years with confirmed pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection presented with neurological complications within 2 to 5 days after the first signs of influenza-like illness. All six were admitted with seizures or altered mental status. No abnormalities were found in brain scans or cerebral spinal fluid studies of any of the six. All were discharged without sequelae within days of admission. This is only the second report of pandemic influenza presenting with neurological manifestations. Clinicians caring for patients when pandemic influenza is prevalent in their communities should maintain a high level of awareness of the potential atypical presentations with which this disease can appear.

  9. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathrin Zürcher

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis (TB mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889 and the Spanish (1918 influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality.We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB mortality attributable to influenza.Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001 during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13 during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001 and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004, respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control during the influenza pandemics.We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  10. The 2015 global production capacity of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Kenneth A; Goldin, Shoshanna; Nannei, Claudia; Sparrow, Erin; Torelli, Guido

    2016-10-26

    A global shortage and inequitable access to influenza vaccines has been cause for concern for developing countries who face dire consequences in the event of a pandemic. The Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) was launched in 2006 to increase global capacity for influenza vaccine production to address these concerns. It is widely recognized that well-developed infrastructure to produce seasonal influenza vaccines leads to increased capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines. This article summarizes the results of a survey administered to 44 manufacturers to assess their production capacity for seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccine production. When the GAP was launched in 2006, global production capacity for seasonal and pandemic vaccines was estimated to be 500million and 1.5billion doses respectively. Since 2006 there has been a significant increase in capacity, with the 2013 survey estimating global capacity at 1.5billion seasonal and 6.2billion pandemic doses. Results of the current survey showed that global seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has decreased since 2013 from 1.504billion doses to 1.467billion doses. However, notwithstanding the overall global decrease in seasonal vaccine capacity there were notable positive changes in the distribution of production capacity with increases noted in South East Asia (SEAR) and the Western Pacific (WPR) regions, albeit on a small scale. Despite a decrease in seasonal capacity, there has been a global increase of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity from 6.2 billion doses in 2013 to 6.4 billion doses in 2015. This growth can be attributed to a shift towards more quadrivalent vaccine production and also to increased use of adjuvants. Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is at its highest recorded levels however challenges remain in maintaining this capacity and in ensuring access in the event of a pandemic to underserved regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by

  11. Comparing pandemic to seasonal influenza mortality: moderate impact overall but high mortality in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijngaard, Cees C van den; Asten, Liselotte van; Koopmans, Marion P G; Pelt, Wilfrid van; Nagelkerke, Nico J D; Wielders, Cornelia C H; Lier, Alies van; Hoek, Wim van der; Meijer, Adam; Donker, Gé A; Dijkstra, Frederika; Harmsen, Carel; Sande, Marianne A B van der; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2012-01-01

    We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality. We used data on all-cause mortality (1999-2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266-958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influenza 1,956 (range 0-3,990). 15,845 years-of-life-lost were estimated for the pandemic; for an average seasonal epidemic 17,908. For 0-4 yrs of age the number of influenza-attributed deaths during the pandemic were higher than in any seasonal epidemic; 77 deaths (range 61-93) compared to 16 deaths (range 0-45). The ≥75 yrs of age showed a far below average number of deaths. Using pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/cardiovascular instead of all-cause deaths consistently resulted in relatively low total pandemic mortality, combined with high impact in the youngest age category. The pandemic had an overall moderate impact on mortality compared to 10 preceding seasonal epidemics, with higher mortality in young children and low mortality in the elderly. This resulted in a total number of pandemic deaths far below the average for seasonal influenza, and a total number of years-of-life-lost somewhat below average. Comparing pandemic and seasonal

  12. Household transmission of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itziar Casado

    Full Text Available The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14-19% presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009-2010 and 19% in the 2010-2011 season (p=0.049, an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010-2011 season than in the 2009-2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17-2.54, and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08-1.03.The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.

  13. Pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009 is associated with severe disease in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhilesh C Mishra

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. In absence of reliable information on severity of the disease, the nations are unable to decide on the appropriate response against this disease.Based on the results of laboratory investigations, attendance in outpatient department, hospital admissions and mortality from the cases of influenza like illness from 1 August to 31 October 2009 in Pune urban agglomeration, risk of hospitalization and case fatality ratio were assessed to determine the severity of pandemic H1N1 and seasonal influenza-A infections.Prevalence of pandemic H1N1 as well as seasonal-A cases were high in Pune urban agglomeration during the study period. The cases positive for pandemic H1N1 virus had significantly higher risk of hospitalization than those positive for seasonal influenza-A viruses (OR: 1.7. Of 93 influenza related deaths, 57 and 8 deaths from Pune (urban and 27 and 1 death from Pune (rural were from pandemic H1N1 positive and seasonal-A positive cases respectively. The case fatality ratio 0.86% for pandemic H1N1 was significantly higher than that of seasonal-A (0.13% and it was in category 3 of the pandemic severity index of CDC, USA. The data on the cumulative fatality of rural and urban Pune revealed that with time the epidemic is spreading to rural areas.The severity of the H1N1 influenza pandemic is less than that reported for 'Spanish flu 1918' but higher than other pandemics of the 20(th century. Thus, pandemic influenza should be considered as serious health threat and unprecedented global response seems justified.

  14. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season: the Nordic experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène; Gudlaugsson, Ólafur; Hauge, Siri Helene; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Sigmundsdóttir, Guðrún; Tegnell, Anders; Virtanen, Mikko; Krause, Tyra Grove

    2016-04-21

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model to compare those indicators between Denmark and the other countries. The vaccination coverage was lower in Denmark (6.1%) compared with Finland (48.2%), Iceland (44.1%), Norway (41.3%) and Sweden (60.0%). In 2009/10 Denmark had a similar cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions and deaths compared with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage and experienced less A(H1N1)pdm09-related severe outcomes in 2010/11. Pandemic vaccination may have had an impact on severe influenza outcomes in the post-pandemic season. Surveillance of severe outcomes may be used to compare the impact of influenza between seasons and support different vaccination strategies.

  15. Association of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection and increased hospitalization with parapneumonic empyema in children in Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampofo, Krow; Herbener, Amy; Blaschke, Anne J; Heyrend, Caroline; Poritz, Mark; Korgenski, Kent; Rolfs, Robert; Jain, Seema; Carvalho, Maria da Glória; Pimenta, Fabiana C; Daly, Judy; Mason, Edward O; Byington, Carrie L; Pavia, Andrew T

    2010-10-01

    During previous influenza pandemics, many deaths were associated with secondary bacterial infection. In April 2009, a previously unknown 2009 influenza A virus (2009 H1N1) emerged, causing a global influenza pandemic. We examined the relationship between circulating 2009 H1N1 and the occurrence of secondary bacterial parapneumonic empyema in children. Children hospitalized with parapneumonic empyema from August 2004 to July 2009, including a period when the 2009 H1N1 circulated in Utah, were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. We compared the average number of children diagnosed with influenza A and the number of admissions for empyema per month for the previous 4 seasons to rates of empyema during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. We identified causative bacteria using culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We observed an increase in hospitalization of children with pneumonia complicated by empyema during a severe outbreak of 2009 H1N1 during the spring and summer of 2009, compared with historical data for the previous 4 seasons. Streptococcus pneumoniae and Streptococcus pyogenes were the predominant bacteria identified. Similar to previous pandemics, secondary bacterial infection with S. pneumoniae and S. pyogenes were associated with the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. There is an urgent need to better understand bacterial complications of pandemic influenza. In the interim, influenza vaccines, antiviral agents, and pneumococcal vaccines should be used to prevent cases of secondary bacterial pneumonia whenever possible.

  16. Knowledge discovery and sequence-based prediction of pandemic influenza using an integrated classification and association rule mining (CBA) algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargarfard, Fatemeh; Sami, Ashkan; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil

    2015-10-01

    Pandemic influenza is a major concern worldwide. Availability of advanced technologies and the nucleotide sequences of a large number of pandemic and non-pandemic influenza viruses in 2009 provide a great opportunity to investigate the underlying rules of pandemic induction through data mining tools. Here, for the first time, an integrated classification and association rule mining algorithm (CBA) was used to discover the rules underpinning alteration of non-pandemic sequences to pandemic ones. We hypothesized that the extracted rules can lead to the development of an efficient expert system for prediction of influenza pandemics. To this end, we used a large dataset containing 5373 HA (hemagglutinin) segments of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and non-pandemic influenza sequences. The analysis was carried out for both nucleotide and protein sequences. We found a number of new rules which potentially present the undiscovered antigenic sites at influenza structure. At the nucleotide level, alteration of thymine (T) at position 260 was the key discriminating feature in distinguishing non-pandemic from pandemic sequences. At the protein level, rules including I233K, M334L were the differentiating features. CBA efficiently classifies pandemic and non-pandemic sequences with high accuracy at both the nucleotide and protein level. Finding hotspots in influenza sequences is a significant finding as they represent the regions with low antibody reactivity. We argue that the virus breaks host immunity response by mutation at these spots. Based on the discovered rules, we developed the software, "Prediction of Pandemic Influenza" for discrimination of pandemic from non-pandemic sequences. This study opens a new vista in discovery of association rules between mutation points during evolution of pandemic influenza. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. 76 FR 58466 - Request for Comments on World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... response, including implementation of the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness... INFORMATION: Written comments are sought in light of the approval of the World Health Organization (WHO... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Request for Comments on World Health...

  18. A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2009-12-16

    The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

  19. Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mcmahon, Benjamin [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimately exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.

  20. A hypothesis: Sunspot cycles may detect pandemic influenza A in 1700-2000 A.D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, John W K

    2006-01-01

    Influenza pandemics in this century (1946-1947, 1957 and 1968) have fascinated some people for the idea of 11-year pattern pandemic cycles. In solar physics, it is well known that sunspot cycles also have regular periods of around 11 years. This study therefore aims to investigate the association between sunspot cycles and the occurrences of pandemic influenza. The hypothesis here states that sunspot numbers can detect pandemic influenza A between 1700 and 2000 A.D. Antigenic shift of influenza occurs is a result of genetic reassortment between animal and human influenza A viruses. It is suggested the viruses spread from the migratory birds to other avian species such as chicken or ducks along their migratory pathways. Solar activity has an influence on terrestrial climate in terms of temperature, rainfall, storms and finally the biological systems. It was shown that the arrival dates of some migratory birds were delayed with increased sunspot numbers. This delay arrival may be associated with increased contacts with other susceptible birds in their migratory routes that facilitate genetic reassortment of the circulating influenza viruses. TEST THE HYPOTHESIS: Comprehensive reviews on both pandemics and possible pandemics of influenza were searched. International sunspot numbers were obtained from the World Data Center for Sunspot Index, Belgium and used to detect pandemics by binomial test. Five comprehensive reviews were found and the agreements on pandemics were good to excellent. Sensitivity of using Sunspot Number more than 50 (SSN>50) to detect pandemics increased as the levels of agreements increased. In stringent criteria, two pandemics might have occurred in the 18th century (1729-1733 and 1781-1782), two in the 19th century (1830-1833 and 1889-1892) and three in the 20th century (1918-1920, 1957-1958 and 1968-1969). The sensitivity of using SSN>50 to detect influenza pandemics was 85.7% (95%CI=59.8-100%, p=0.019). The specificity was 51.2% (95%CI=35

  1. Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE multicentre case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Valenciano

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1 (pH1N1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year. We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902 adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6-85.5 overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8 in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8 in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502 adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8, 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4, and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0, respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2 if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the

  2. Estimates of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe, 2009–2010: Results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) Multicentre Case-Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenciano, Marta; Kissling, Esther; Cohen, Jean-Marie; Oroszi, Beatrix; Barret, Anne-Sophie; Rizzo, Caterina; Nunes, Baltazar; Pitigoi, Daniela; Larrauri Cámara, Amparro; Mosnier, Anne; Horvath, Judith K.; O'Donnell, Joan; Bella, Antonino; Guiomar, Raquel; Lupulescu, Emilia; Savulescu, Camelia; Ciancio, Bruno C.; Kramarz, Piotr; Moren, Alain

    2011-01-01

    Background A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009–2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1). Methods and Findings Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6–85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4–89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8–87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9–84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1–88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4–89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI −69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8–14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009–2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI −65.2 to 50.9). Conclusions Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no

  3. Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) multicentre case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenciano, Marta; Kissling, Esther; Cohen, Jean-Marie; Oroszi, Beatrix; Barret, Anne-Sophie; Rizzo, Caterina; Nunes, Baltazar; Pitigoi, Daniela; Larrauri Cámara, Amparro; Mosnier, Anne; Horvath, Judith K; O'Donnell, Joan; Bella, Antonino; Guiomar, Raquel; Lupulescu, Emilia; Savulescu, Camelia; Ciancio, Bruno C; Kramarz, Piotr; Moren, Alain

    2011-01-01

    A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1). Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6-85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9). Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the

  4. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness...

  5. H7N9 Avian Influenza A Virus and the Perpetual Challenge of Potential Human Pandemicity

    OpenAIRE

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.; Fauci, Anthony S.

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT The ongoing H7N9 influenza epizootic in China once again presents us questions about the origin of pandemics and how to recognize them in early stages of development. Over the past ~135 years, H7 influenza viruses have neither caused pandemics nor been recognized as having undergone human adaptation. Yet several unusual properties of these viruses, including their poultry epizootic potential, mammalian adaptation, and atypical clinical syndromes in rarely infected humans, suggest tha...

  6. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

  7. [Pandemic without drama. Influenza vaccination and Asian flu in Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    The history of the 1957/58 Asian flu in Germany is systematically presented for the first time. The focus is on flu vaccination, which is discussed as a yardstick of the perception of the pandemic. International expertise on influenza virology was predominantly based in Anglo-Saxon countries. German microbiologists issued no clear recommendation for preventative vaccination until 1960. Instead, quinine was relied upon as the traditional medicinal prophylaxis. Antibiotics were more frequently administered. In East Germany, little fuss was made over the Asian flu. In line with the authorities' social hygiene orientation, vaccination was accepted as a matter of principle. In the Federal Republic and West Berlin, the population rejected the vaccination largely. It was seen as a scandal that many employees were on sick leave because of the flu, thus adversely affecting the economy.

  8. Pandemic influenza as 21st century urban public health crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, David M; Weisfuse, Isaac B; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Del Rio, Carlos; Bustamante, Xinia; Rodier, Guenael

    2009-12-01

    The percentage of the world's population living in urban areas will increase from 50% in 2008 to 70% (4.9 billion) in 2025. Crowded urban areas in developing and industrialized countries are uniquely vulnerable to public health crises and face daunting challenges in surveillance, response, and public communication. The revised International Health Regulations require all countries to have core surveillance and response capacity by 2012. Innovative approaches are needed because traditional local-level strategies may not be easily scalable upward to meet the needs of huge, densely populated cities, especially in developing countries. The responses of Mexico City and New York City to the initial appearance of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus during spring 2009 illustrate some of the new challenges and creative response strategies that will increasingly be needed in cities worldwide.

  9. Gradual changes in the age distribution of excess deaths in the years following the 1918 influenza pandemic in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saglanmak, Neslihan; Andreasen, Viggo; Simonsen, Lone

    2011-01-01

    Background: The 1918 influenza pandemic was associated with an unusual age pattern of mortality, with most deaths occurring among young adults. Few studies have addressed changes in the age distribution for influenza-related mortality in the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic period, which has...... implications for pandemic preparedness. In the present paper, we analyse the age patterns of influenza-related excess mortality in the decades before and after the 1918 pandemic, using detailed historic surveillance data from Copenhagen. Methods: Weekly age-specific rates of respiratory mortality and influenza...... of excess mortality rates between age groups and influenza seasons. Results: Individuals aged 15–64 years experienced sharply elevated excess respiratory mortality rates in the 1918–1919 and 1919–1920 pandemic periods, compared to pre-pandemic seasons (RR for excess mortality in the fall of 1918 = 67...

  10. Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorratoltaj, Nargesalsadat; Marathe, Achla; Lewis, Bryan L; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen G; Abbas, Kaja M

    2017-06-01

    The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school

  11. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic : modeling the risks and health-economic impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George; Nelson, E. Anthony S.; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P.

    2010-01-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic

  12. Resilience Training for Hospital Workers in Anticipation of an Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, Andria; Khayeri, Michelle Young-Eun; Raja, Shreyshree; Peladeau, Nathalie; Romano, Donna; Leszcz, Molyn; Maunder, Robert G.; Rose, Marci; Adam, Mary Anne; Pain, Clare; Moore, Andrea; Savage, Diane; Schulman, Rabbi Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Background: Well before the H1N1 influenza, health care organizations worldwide prepared for a pandemic of unpredictable impact. Planners anticipated the possibility of a pandemic involving high mortality, high health care demands, rates of absenteeism rising up to 20-30% among health care workers, rationing of health care, and extraordinary…

  13. Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

  14. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Mummert

    Full Text Available A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies.We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography, where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations.Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  15. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummert, Anna; Weiss, Howard; Long, Li-Ping; Amigó, José M; Wan, Xiu-Feng

    2013-01-01

    A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies. We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography), where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak) and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations. Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed) could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  16. US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Reddick, Dave; D Swick, Zachary

    2012-09-01

    School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P pandemic (P = .01 or US schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

    2009-08-24

    On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

  18. Clinical and socioeconomic impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza in adults and the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela; Lai, Piero Luigi; Panatto, Donatella

    2012-01-01

    Influenza epidemics and pandemics carry a heavy socioeconomic burden. Hospitalization and treatment are more often necessary in high-risk patients, such as the elderly. However, the impact of influenza is not negligible even in adults, mainly because of lost productivity. The World Health Organization estimates that seasonal influenza causes 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide each year; however, mortality may be very high in pandemic periods. Many estimates of the costs of seasonal influenza have been made in various socioeconomic contexts. For instance, among the adult population in Italy, a cost of €940.39 per case has been estimated. In the US, the average annual influenza burden in 18-49-y-old adults without underlying medical conditions is judged to include approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 680 deaths. Estimating the influenza burden is a useful aid to determining the best influenza vaccination strategy and preventive and clinical treatments.

  19. Anti-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus potential of catechin and gallic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Huey-Ling; Huang, Chao-Chun; Chen, Chung-Jen; Chang, Cheng-Chin; Liao, Pei-Lin; Huang, Sheng-Teng

    2017-12-26

    The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread worldwide and infected a large proportion of the human population. Discovery of new and effective drugs for the treatment of influenza is a crucial issue for the global medical community. According to our previous study, TSL-1, a fraction of the aqueous extract from the tender leaf of Toonasinensis, has demonstrated antiviral activities against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) through the down-regulation of adhesion molecules and chemokine to prevent viral attachment. The aim of the present study was to identify the active compounds in TSL-1 which exert anti-influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. XTT assay was used to detect the cell viability. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect on the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was analyzed by observing plaque formation, qRT-PCR, neuraminidase activity, and immunofluorescence staining of influenza A-specific glycoprotein. Both catechin and gallic acid were found to be potent inhibitors in terms of influenza virus mRNA replication and MDCK plaque formation. Additionally, both compounds inhibited neuraminidase activities and viral glycoprotein. The 50% effective inhibition concentration (EC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid for the influenza A (H1N1) virus were 18.4 μg/mL and 2.6 μg/mL, respectively; whereas the 50% cytotoxic concentrations (CC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid were >100 μg/mL and 22.1 μg/mL, respectively. Thus, the selectivity indexes (SI) of catechin and gallic acid were >5.6 and 22.1, respectively. The present study demonstrates that catechin might be a safe reagent for long-term use to prevent influenza A (H1N1) virus infection; whereas gallic acid might be a sensitive reagent to inhibit influenza virus infection. We conclude that these two phyto-chemicals in TSL-1 are responsible for exerting anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

  20. Pulmonary Embolism Associated with Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Virus Infection: a Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Cumhur Dülger

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available On May 15, 2009, the Turkish Ministry of Health reported the first case of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus infection in the Republic of Turkey. Pandemic H1N1virus is a new and mutant influenza virus and has many epidemiologic and clinic features. These cases have been reported in multiple geographic regions of the world. School children are more affected than adults. In the elderly, it has a higher mortality rate. The clinical aspects of infection with H1N1 influenza A virus remains to be understood. A few cases of pulmonary embolism associated with H1N1 influenza A virus infection were reported. We herein report a pulmonary embolism in a patient with pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus infection. A 42-year-old Turkish woman was admitted to our emergency department with dyspnea and pleuritic chest pain. She complained of fever, myalgia, sore throat and cough of four days duration on admission to our hospital. She was tested for pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR test which revealed a positive result. Chest tomography showed pulmonary embolism. She was successfully treated with intravenous heparin and oseltamivir. This case report demonstrates the importance of considering pulmvonary embolism as a diagnosis in 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus infected persons who present with sudden onset of dyspnea, fever and chest pain.

  1. Pandemic influenza vaccination during pregnancy: an investigation of vaccine uptake during the 2009/10 pandemic vaccination campaign in Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammon, Cormac J; McGrogan, Anita; Snowball, Julia; de Vries, Corinne S

    2013-04-01

    Pregnant women in Great Britain were recommended to receive influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines during the 2009/10 influenza pandemic, however uptake of the vaccines by pregnant women was reported to have been very low. We sought to estimate uptake of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines and to investigate predictors of vaccine uptake in pregnant women in Great Britain during the 2009/10 pandemic. Uptake of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines by pregnant women was 21.6%. Pregnant women with an underlying health condition increasing the risk of influenza-related complications had a higher vaccination rate than pregnant women without such conditions. The hazard ratio comparing these two groups decreased logarithmically throughout pregnancy from 9.3 in the first week to 1.3 by the end of pregnancy. Increasing maternal age (HR 1.01, CI 95 1.01-1.01), having a previous delivery recorded (HR 1.21, CI95 1.16-1.27) and living in Scotland (HR 2.58, CI95 2.34-2.85) or Wales (HR 1.37, CI95 1.20-1.57) as opposed to England were all also associated with an increase in vaccination uptake rates throughout pregnancy. Uptake of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines by pregnant women was low. None of the potential predictors evaluated in this study were strong enough to account for this, however information on health beliefs and GP recommendation were not available. If the low rates reported here are to be improved new strategies to increase uptake of influenza vaccine in pregnant women need to be identified, evaluated and implemented. Uptake rates were calculated using data from the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Predictors of vaccination were identified using a Cox proportional hazards model.

  2. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

    2015-08-20

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S.; Kreijtz, Joost H.C.M.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Claassen, E.

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT–AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. PMID:26048779

  4. Determinants of receiving the pandemic (H1N1 2009 vaccine and intention to receive the seasonal influenza vaccine in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available The paper examines the factors associated with both receiving pandemic (H1N1 2009 vaccines and individuals' intentions to get the next seasonal influenza vaccine in Taiwan.We conducted a representative nationwide survey with in-person household interviews during April-July 2010. Multivariate logistic regression incorporated socio-demographic background, household characteristics, health status, behaviors, and perceptions of influenza and vaccination.We completed interviews with 1,954 respondents. Among those, 548 (28.0% received the pandemic (H1N1 2009 vaccination, and 469 (24.0% intended to get the next seasonal influenza vaccine. Receipt of the H1N1 vaccine was more prevalent among schoolchildren, the elderly, those who had contact with more people in their daily lives, and those who had received influenza vaccinations in previous years. In comparison, the intention to receive the next seasonal influenza vaccine tended to be stronger among children, the elderly, and those who reported less healthy status or lived with children, who received a seasonal influenza vaccination before, and who worried more about a possible new pandemic.Children, the elderly, and those who had gotten seasonal flu shots before in Taiwan were more likely to both receive a pandemic H1N1 vaccination and intend to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine.

  5. Were Equatorial Regions Less Affected by the 2009 Influenza Pandemic? The Brazilian Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Moura, Fernanda E. A.; Fernandes, Roberto M.; Carvalho, Marcia L.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

    2012-01-01

    Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5°N to −35°S) by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the assessment of the

  6. Were equatorial regions less affected by the 2009 influenza pandemic? The Brazilian experience.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Schuck-Paim

    Full Text Available Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5(°N to -35(°S by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the

  7. The economic burden of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yang-Woo; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Oh, In-Hwan

    2013-05-01

    Although there have been numerous studies concerning the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza, limited data are available on the economic burden of the pandemic. The present study was undertaken to help policy makers prepare for future H1N1 pandemics. We assessed the socioeconomic burden of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza that infected 3,082,113 patients in South Korea, which represents 6.6% of the population of South Korea. Data were obtained from the National Health Insurance Claims database using claims submitted from 1 August 2009 to 31 July 2010. Costs were converted to United States dollars (US$). The annual socioeconomic costs of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza were US$1.09 billion (0.14% of the national GDP). Direct costs included US$322.6 million (29.6% of total costs) of direct medical costs, with an additional US$105.4 million (9.7% of total cost) of direct non-medical costs. The indirect costs totaled US$662.5 million (60.8% of total cost). The economic impact was much higher for men than for women due to the fact that indirect costs were 2.2-times higher because of the higher male wage. Also direct medical costs peaked for patients in the children and adolescent groups. These findings demonstrate the socioeconomic burden associated with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Korea and can be used for future pandemic planning.

  8. The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general...

  9. Pandemic H1N1 influenza: zoonoses are a two-way street

    Science.gov (United States)

    Influenza is a zoonotic viral disease representing a worldwide health and economic threat to humans and animals. Swine influenza was first recognized clinically in pigs in the Midwestern United States in 1918 concurrent with the Spanish flu human pandemic. Since the first report that flu was caused ...

  10. Adoption of Preventive Measures and Attitudes toward the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Anna; Rodríguez, Tània; López, Maria José; Continente, Xavier; Nebot, Manel

    2016-01-01

    Background: This study describes the perceived impact of H1N1 influenza and the adoption of the recommended measures to address the pandemic in schools. Methods: A cross-sectional self-reported survey was conducted in 433 schools in Barcelona addressed to the school principal or the H1N1 influenza designated person. A descriptive analysis was…

  11. Disaster planning: using an 'evolving scenario' approach for pandemic influenza with primary care doctors in training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, John; Lynch, Marion; Mulholland, Michael; Curtis, Anthony; Simpson, John; Meacham, Janet

    2009-09-01

    This project adopted an 'evolving scenario' approach of an influenza pandemic to enhance factual and attitudinal learning in general practice registrars. The one-day session, held before the current outbreak, was based around a sequence of four video clips that portrayed the development and evolution of pandemic influenza through news flashes and pieces to camera. A short factual presentation was included. Small group discussions with plenary feedback followed each of these. Registrars were encouraged to consider their own feelings, what they needed as professional support at each stage, and what professional and personal issues a pandemic produced. A course structured in this way allowed participants at a training level to identify the major issues and consequences of an influenza pandemic. It was recognised that constructive preparation and planning for business continuity were possible. However, family illness and social consequences were recognised as causing a dissonance with professional practice that needs open debate.

  12. Efficient vaccine against pandemic influenza: combining DNA vaccination and targeted delivery to MHC class II molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grødeland, Gunnveig; Bogen, Bjarne

    2015-06-01

    There are two major limitations to vaccine preparedness in the event of devastating influenza pandemics: the time needed to generate a vaccine and rapid generation of sufficient amounts. DNA vaccination could represent a solution to these problems, but efficacy needs to be enhanced. In a separate line of research, it has been established that targeting of vaccine molecules to antigen-presenting cells enhances immune responses. We have combined the two principles by constructing DNA vaccines that encode bivalent fusion proteins; these target hemagglutinin to MHC class II molecules on antigen-presenting cells. Such DNA vaccines rapidly induce hemagglutinin-specific antibodies and T cell responses in immunized mice. Responses are long-lasting and protect mice against challenge with influenza virus. In a pandemic situation, targeted DNA vaccines could be produced and tested within a month. The novel DNA vaccines could represent a solution to pandemic preparedness in the advent of novel influenza pandemics.

  13. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2013-01-01

    The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

  14. Pulmonary Embolism Associated with Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Virus Infection: a Case Report

    OpenAIRE

    Dülger, Ahmet Cumhur; Avcu, Serhat; Arslan, Harun; Özbay, Bülent; Günbatar, Hülya; Küçükoğlu, Mehmet Emin; Bartın, Mehmet Kadir

    2011-01-01

    On May 15, 2009, the Turkish Ministry of Health reported the first case of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the Republic of Turkey. Pandemic H1N1virus is a new and mutant influenza virus and has many epidemiologic and clinic features. These cases have been reported in multiple geographic regions of the world. School children are more affected than adults. In the elderly, it has a higher mortality rate. The clinical aspects of infection with H1N1 influenza A virus remains to...

  15. Pandemic influenza control in Europe and the constraints resulting from incoherent public health laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Robyn; Conseil, Alexandra; Longstaff, Abie; Kodo, Jimmy; Siegert, Joachim; Duguet, Anne-Marie; Lobato de Faria, Paula; Haringhuizen, George; Espin, Jaime; Coker, Richard

    2010-09-03

    With the emergence of influenza H1N1v the world is facing its first 21st century global pandemic. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza H5N1 prompted development of pandemic preparedness plans. National systems of public health law are essential for public health stewardship and for the implementation of public health policy. International coherence will contribute to effective regional and global responses. However little research has been undertaken on how law works as a tool for disease control in Europe. With co-funding from the European Union, we investigated the extent to which laws across Europe support or constrain pandemic preparedness planning, and whether national differences are likely to constrain control efforts. We undertook a survey of national public health laws across 32 European states using a questionnaire designed around a disease scenario based on pandemic influenza. Questionnaire results were reviewed in workshops, analysing how differences between national laws might support or hinder regional responses to pandemic influenza. Respondents examined the impact of national laws on the movements of information, goods, services and people across borders in a time of pandemic, the capacity for surveillance, case detection, case management and community control, the deployment of strategies of prevention, containment, mitigation and recovery and the identification of commonalities and disconnects across states. Results of this study show differences across Europe in the extent to which national pandemic policy and pandemic plans have been integrated with public health laws. We found significant differences in legislation and in the legitimacy of strategic plans. States differ in the range and the nature of intervention measures authorized by law, the extent to which borders could be closed to movement of persons and goods during a pandemic, and access to healthcare of non-resident persons. Some states propose use of emergency

  16. Pandemic influenza control in Europe and the constraints resulting from incoherent public health laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Robyn

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With the emergence of influenza H1N1v the world is facing its first 21st century global pandemic. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS and avian influenza H5N1 prompted development of pandemic preparedness plans. National systems of public health law are essential for public health stewardship and for the implementation of public health policy1. International coherence will contribute to effective regional and global responses. However little research has been undertaken on how law works as a tool for disease control in Europe. With co-funding from the European Union, we investigated the extent to which laws across Europe support or constrain pandemic preparedness planning, and whether national differences are likely to constrain control efforts. Methods We undertook a survey of national public health laws across 32 European states using a questionnaire designed around a disease scenario based on pandemic influenza. Questionnaire results were reviewed in workshops, analysing how differences between national laws might support or hinder regional responses to pandemic influenza. Respondents examined the impact of national laws on the movements of information, goods, services and people across borders in a time of pandemic, the capacity for surveillance, case detection, case management and community control, the deployment of strategies of prevention, containment, mitigation and recovery and the identification of commonalities and disconnects across states. Results Results of this study show differences across Europe in the extent to which national pandemic policy and pandemic plans have been integrated with public health laws. We found significant differences in legislation and in the legitimacy of strategic plans. States differ in the range and the nature of intervention measures authorized by law, the extent to which borders could be closed to movement of persons and goods during a pandemic, and access to healthcare of non

  17. Nosocomial outbreak of the pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in critical hematologic patients during seasonal influenza 2010-2011: detection of oseltamivir resistant variant viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollara, Caterina P; Piccinelli, Giorgio; Rossi, Giuseppe; Cattaneo, Chiara; Perandin, Francesca; Corbellini, Silvia; Tomasi, Dolores De; Bonfanti, Carlo

    2013-03-07

    The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus infection caused illness and death among people worldwide, particularly in hematologic/oncologic patients because influenza infected individuals can shed virus for prolonged periods, thus increasing the chances for the development of drug-resistant strains such as oseltamivir-resistant (OST-r) variant. The aim of our study was to retrospectively evaluate the clinical importance of OST-r variant in circulating strains of the pandemic H1N1pdm09 virus. By means of RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing we analysed the presence of OST-r variant in 76 H1N1pdm09 laboratory-confirmed cases, hospitalized at the hematologic/oncologic ward at Spedali Civili of Brescia -Italy. Out of 76 hospitalized hematologic/oncologic patients, 23 patients (30.2%) were infected by H1N1pdm09 virus. Further investigation revealed that 3 patients were positive for the OST-r variant carrying the H275Y mutation. All the 23 infected patients were immuno-compromised, and were under treatment or had been treated previously with oseltamivir. Three patients died (13%) after admission to intensive care unit and only one of them developed H275Y mutation. Our retrospective observational study shows that pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus can cause significant morbidity and even mortality in hematologic/oncologic patients and confirms the high rate of nosocomial transmission of pandemic H1N1pdm09 virus in these critical subjects. Indeed, the reduction in host defences in these hospitalized patients favoured the prolonged use of antiviral therapy and permitted the development of OST-r strain. Strategies as diagnostic vigilance, early isolation of patients and seasonal influenza A(H1N1) vaccination may prevent transmission of influenza in high risk individuals.

  18. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Tamerius, James; Miller, Mark A; Borja-Aburto, Víctor H

    2011-05-01

    Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June-July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼ 18 years overall and increased to ∼ 31 years during autumn (pMexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2-5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases. We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school

  19. Antibody responses to influenza viruses in paediatric patients and their contacts at the onset of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Herrera-Castillo, Cristina; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Vázquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Espitia-Pinzón, Clara; Zamudio-Lugo, Irma; Meza-Chávez, Abigail; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

    2015-03-15

    On April 2009, the Mexican Ministry of Health received notification of cases of severe pneumonia mostly affecting young healthy people; this was the beginning of the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The nature of the immune response to the influenza A(H1N1)2009 pandemic strain in Mexico at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak has not been completely defined. We describe the serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza virus in paediatric patients with influenza-like illness, their household contacts (HHCs), and exposed health-care workers (HCWs) at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak in Mexico City. thirty pre-epidemic and 129 epidemic samples were collected and serum antibodies were measured against A(H1N1)2009 pandemic virus and two non-pandemic swine influenza viruses by an haemagglutination inhibition assay . 91% (29/32) of the convalescence samples from confirmed patients had an antibody titre ≥ 10 (GMT 25), 63% (41/65) of the HHCs (GMT 12), 41% of HCWs (GMT 6) and 13% (4/30) of pre-epidemic samples (GMT 6) for the pandemic influenza virus. Of the 32 confirmed cases, 60% had an antibody titre ≥ 40 for the pandemic strain, 53% for the A/swine/Iowa(H1N1) virus (GMT 62) and 43% for the A/swine/Texas(H3N2) virus (GMT 66). The antibody response to 2009 pandemic influenza virus was widespread in convalescence samples from patients with confirmed pandemic influenza infection but the GMT was below the protective titre. There was no evidence that antibodies to the swine influenza viruses had cross-protective effect against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus.

  20. Pandemia de influenza: la respuesta de México Influenza pandemic: Mexico's response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Kuri-Morales

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available En 1992 apareció en el sureste asiático un nuevo tipo de virus de la influenza, el cual ha ocasionado hasta la fecha más de 120 casos y un poco más de 60 defunciones en humanos en Camboya, Vietnam, Indonesia y Tailandia. Esta situación es considerada por los expertos como la probable génesis de una nueva pandemia de influenza, lo que podría traer graves consecuencias para la salud de la población, así como para la economía y el comercio mundial. Por lo anterior, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS ha instado a los países miembros a desarrollar planes de preparación y respuesta para hacer frente a esta eventualidad. En el marco del Comité Nacional para la Seguridad en Salud, México ha diseñado el Plan Nacional de Preparación y Respuesta ante una Pandemia de Influenza con objeto de proteger a la población mediante acciones efectivas y oportunas. El Plan utiliza una escala de riesgo y define cinco líneas de acción: Coordinación, Vigilancia Epidemiológica, Atención Médica, Difusión y Movilización Social, y Reserva Estratégica. Si bien es imposible predecir cuándo se presentará la próxima pandemia y su impacto, es fundamental que las autoridades de salud nacionales, estatales y locales establezcan los mecanismos para poner en marcha los componentes del Plan en forma oportuna y garantizar con ello la salud de la población en caso de influenza pandémica.In 1992, a new type of influenza virus appeared in Southeast Asia. This new strain has caused to date, more than 120 cases and over 60 deaths in Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. This situation is seen by the experts as the possible genesis of a new influenza pandemic with the corresponding negative effects on the health of the population, international commerce and world economy. In order to face the coming challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO has asked member countries to develop national preparedness and response plans for an influenza pandemic

  1. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

    2013-02-11

    A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination

  2. Advancing new vaccines against pandemic influenza in low-resource countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlanda Scorza, Francesco

    2017-09-25

    With the support of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), PATH is working with governments and vaccine manufacturers to strengthen their influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity and improve their ability to respond to emerging pandemic influenza viruses. Vaccines directed against influenza A/H5N1 and A/H7N9 strains are a particular focus, given the potential for these viruses to acquire properties that may lead to a pandemic. This paper will review influenza vaccine development from a developing country perspective and PATH's support of this effort. Several vaccines are currently in preclinical and clinical development at our partners for seasonal and pandemic influenza in Vietnam (IVAC and VABIOTECH), Serbia (Torlak), China (BCHT), Brazil (Butantan), and India (SII). Products in development include split, whole-virus inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs). Additionally, while most manufacturers propagate the virus in eggs, PATH is supporting the development of cell-based processes that could substantially increase global manufacturing capacity and flexibility. We review recent data from clinical trials of pandemic influenza vaccines manufactured in developing countries. An important discussion is on the role of whole virion vaccines for H5N1, given the poor immunogenicity of split vaccines and the complexity involved in developing potent adjuvants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Establishment of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity at Bio Farma, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhardono, Mahendra; Ugiyadi, Dori; Nurnaeni, Ida; Emelia, Imelda

    2011-07-01

    In Indonesia, avian influenza A(H5N1) virus started to spread in humans in June 2005, with an alarming case-fatality rate of more than 80%. Considering that global influenza vaccine production capacity would barely have covered 10% of the world's pandemic vaccine needs, and that countries with no production facilities or prearranged contracts would be without access to a vaccine, the Government of Indonesia embarked on a programme to increase its readiness for a future influenza pandemic. This included the domestic production of influenza vaccine, which was entrusted to Bio Farma. This health security strategy consists of developing trivalent influenza vaccine production capacity in order to be able to convert immediately to monovalent production of up to 20 million pandemic doses for the Indonesian market upon receipt of the seed strain from the World Health Organization (WHO). For this purpose, a dedicated production facility is being constructed within the Bio Farma premises in Bandung. As an initial stage of influenza vaccine development, imported seasonal influenza bulk has been formulated and filled in the Bio Farma facility. Following three consecutive batches and successful clinical trials, the product was licensed by the Indonesian National Regulatory Authority and distributed commercially for the Hajj programme in 2009. With continued support from its technology transfer partners, Bio Farma is now advancing with the development of upstream processes to produce its own bulk for seasonal and pandemic use. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  5. Development of an influenza virus vaccine using the baculovirus-insect cell expression system : implications for pandemic preparedness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, M.M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Key word

    Influenza, rHA, vaccine, baculovirus, insect cells, production, pandemic preparedness

    Influenza (or flu) is a highly contagious, acute viral respiratory disease that occurs seasonally in most parts of the world and is caused by influenza viruses. Influenza

  6. The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 in Sri Lanka: its demographic cost, timing, and propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Siddharth; Sarathchandra, Dilshani

    2014-05-01

    As an island and a former British colony, Sri Lanka is a case of special interest for the study of 1918-1919 influenza pandemic because of its potential for isolation from as well as integration into the world epidemiologic system. To estimate population loss attributable to the influenza pandemic and weekly district-level excess mortality from the pandemic to analyze its spread across the island. To measure population loss, we estimated a population growth model using a panel of 100 district-level observations on population for five consecutive censuses from 1891 to 1931, allowing for a one-time drop in population in 1918-1919. To estimate weekly excess mortality from the pandemic, we estimated a seasonally adjusted weekly time series of district-specific mortality estimates from vital registration records, ranked them, and plotted the ranks on weekly maps to create a picture of the geographic pattern of propagation across Sri Lanka. Total loss of population from the influenza pandemic was 307 000 or approximately 6·7% of the population. The pandemic peaked in two discrete (northern and southern) regions in early October of 1918 and in a third (central) region in early March 1919. The population loss estimate is significantly higher than earlier estimates of mortality from the pandemic in Sri Lanka, suggesting underreporting of influenza-attributable deaths and a role for influenza-related fertility declines. The spatial pattern of peak mortality indicates the presence of two distinct entry points and three distinct epidemiologic regions, defined by population density and ethnicity, in colonial Sri Lanka. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Antiviral therapy in seasonal influenza and 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza: Korean experiences and perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Joon Young; Noh, Ji Yun; Choi, Won Suk; Cheong, Hee Jin; Kim, Woo Joo

    2015-01-01

    Influenza is a major cause of substantial morbidity and mortality in humans every year. Vaccination is the main strategy to prevent influenza infection, but antiviral agents also play an important role in the control of both seasonal and pandemic influenza. During the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in 2009, early prompt antiviral therapy may have reduced the severity of the influenza outcomes including pneumonia, hospitalization and mortality in the Republic of Korea. Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, there have been increasing usages of antiviral agents for the treatment of patients with seasonal influenza. Although currently rare, antiviral resistance among influenza viruses may emerge and increase with increased use of neuraminidase inhibitors. New agents with different modes of action are under investigation, including favipiravir, DAS181, nitazoxanide and broad-spectrum neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Data are limited with respect to high-dose and combination antiviral therapies. So, clinical trials are warranted to evaluate diverse antiviral combinations that may be synergistic and less likely to induce breakthrough resistance.

  8. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  9. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  10. Haemophilus influenzae type f meningitis in a previously healthy boy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ronit, Andreas; Berg, Ronan M G; Bruunsgaard, Helle

    2013-01-01

    Non-serotype b strains of Haemophilus influenzae are extremely rare causes of acute bacterial meningitis in immunocompetent individuals. We report a case of acute bacterial meningitis in a 14-year-old boy, who was previously healthy and had been immunised against H influenzae serotype b (Hib......). The causative pathogen was identified as H influenzae serotype f (Hif), and was successfully treated with ceftriaxone. An immunological evaluation revealed transient low levels of immunoglobulins but no apparent immunodeficiency was found 2 years after the clinical insult....

  11. Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is associated with pandemic influenza infection, but not with an adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Per; Gunnes, Nina; Tveito, Kari; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Ghaderi, Sara; Stoltenberg, Camilla; Hornig, Mady; Lipkin, W Ian; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri E

    2015-11-17

    Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is associated to infections and it has been suggested that vaccination can trigger the disease. However, little is known about the specific association between clinically manifest influenza/influenza vaccine and CFS/ME. As part of a registry surveillance of adverse effects after mass vaccination in Norway during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, we had the opportunity to estimate and contrast the risk of CFS/ME after infection and vaccination. Using the unique personal identification number assigned to everybody who is registered as resident in Norway, we followed the complete Norwegian population as of October 1, 2009, through national registries of vaccination, communicable diseases, primary health, and specialist health care until December 31, 2012. Hazard ratios (HRs) of CFS/ME, as diagnosed in the specialist health care services (diagnostic code G93.3 in the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10), after influenza infection and/or vaccination were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression. The incidence rate of CFS/ME was 2.08 per 100,000 person-months at risk. The adjusted HR of CFS/ME after pandemic vaccination was 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.04), while it was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.78-2.33) after being diagnosed with influenza infection during the peak pandemic period. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection was associated with a more than two-fold increased risk of CFS/ME. We found no indication of increased risk of CFS/ME after vaccination. Our findings are consistent with a model whereby symptomatic infection, rather than antigenic stimulation may trigger CFS/ME. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Continual re-introduction of human pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses into US swine, 2009-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses (pH1N1) increased the genetic diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) globally and is linked to the emergence of new pandemic threats, including H3N2v variants. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the Unit...

  13. Safety and efficacy of a novel live attenuated influenza vaccine against pandemic H1N1 in swine

    Science.gov (United States)

    On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreaks caused by novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus had reached pandemic proportions. The pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) is the predominant influenza strain in the human population. It has also crossed the species barriers a...

  14. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 influenza pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: a modeling study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  15. Characterizing the Epidemiology of the 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Tamerius, James; Miller, Mark A.; Borja-Aburto, Víctor H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. Methods and Findings We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (ppandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases. Conclusions We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors

  16. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7 in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strutton David R

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1 outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100 and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100. Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd protection of non-vaccinated persons. Results The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd protection in the unvaccinated. Conclusions PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  17. Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Jaime L; McGarry, Lisa J; Klugman, Keith P; Strutton, David R; Gilmore, Kristen E; Weinstein, Milton C

    2010-01-21

    Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.

  18. Mutation analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses collected in Japan during the peak phase of the pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Étienne Morlighem

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus infection quickly circulated worldwide in 2009. In Japan, the first case was reported in May 2009, one month after its outbreak in Mexico. Thereafter, A(H1N1 infection spread widely throughout the country. It is of great importance to profile and understand the situation regarding viral mutations and their circulation in Japan to accumulate a knowledge base and to prepare clinical response platforms before a second pandemic (pdm wave emerges. METHODOLOGY: A total of 253 swab samples were collected from patients with influenza-like illness in the Osaka, Tokyo, and Chiba areas both in May 2009 and between October 2009 and January 2010. We analyzed partial sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes of the 2009 pdm influenza virus in the collected clinical samples. By phylogenetic analysis, we identified major variants of the 2009 pdm influenza virus and critical mutations associated with severe cases, including drug-resistance mutations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our sequence analysis has revealed that both HA-S220T and NA-N248D are major non-synonymous mutations that clearly discriminate the 2009 pdm influenza viruses identified in the very early phase (May 2009 from those found in the peak phase (October 2009 to January 2010 in Japan. By phylogenetic analysis, we found 14 micro-clades within the viruses collected during the peak phase. Among them, 12 were new micro-clades, while two were previously reported. Oseltamivir resistance-related mutations, i.e., NA-H275Y and NA-N295S, were also detected in sporadic cases in Osaka and Tokyo.

  19. Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Bernice

    2009-01-01

    As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

  20. Comparison between pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza pneumonia and seasonal influenza pneumonia in adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishiguro, Takashi; Takayanagi, Noboru; Yoneda, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    We compared 126 cases of seasonal influenza pneumonia (seasonal flu) reported between January, 1996 and March, 2009, with 10 cases of laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus pneumonia (novel flu), based on clinical condition, computed tomography (CT) findings, severity, treatment, and prognosis, to clarify the characteristics of this novel flu. The mean age of subjects was 52.4 years in the novel flu group and 64 years in the seasonal flu group, and novel flu patients were younger than seasonal flu patients. Seasonal flu patients had more underlying diseases than did novel flu patients. The median duration from illness onset to hospitalization was 4 days in both groups. Primary viral pneumonia was present in 70% of novel flu cases and 31% of seasonal flu cases. The proportion of primary virus pneumonia was higher in novel flu patients, and the disease severity of the seasonal flu group was more severe than that of the novel flu group. White blood cell and lymphocyte counts were lower in novel flu patients, and chest CT images showed bilateral shadows and pure ground-glass opacities more frequently in the novel flu cases. There were no differences in treatment, number of days required for the fever to subside, or mortality between the groups. (author)

  1. Pandemic Influenza A (N1H1: what to learn from it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Rolim Neumann

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics are natural events that occur periodically. The pandemic’s current agent, Influenza virus A (H1N1 was first identified in Mexico in April 2009, spread rapidly and has caused deaths mainly among young adults. The objective of this manuscript is to present the biological aspects involved in the outbreak of this pandemic, as well as population-control strategies for pandemic influenza. In addition to the population mitigation measures, whose efficacy has been described by theoretical models, today we also have drugs with efficacy valued in some patient groups. These drugs reduce moderately the duration and severity of symptoms, as long as they are started early. This pandemic, with a large number of cases, but caused by a virus of low lethality, could be managed preferably in Units of Primary Health Care, that would treat the wild cases and forward the severe ones to the hospitals. However, what occurred in numerous cities was the burden on emergency care with triage situations, forcing managers to improvise field hospitals, tents and containers to house the extra work in services that were already at the limit of physical infrastructure and human resources. Pandemic Influenza exposed the fragility of our network of primary care and lack of ICU beds.

  2. Assessing exposure risks for aquatic organisms posed by Tamiflu use under seasonal influenza and pandemic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Liao, Chung-Min

    2014-01-01

    Environmental pollution by anti-influenza drugs is increasingly recognized as a threat to aquatic environments. However, little is known about empirical data on risk effects posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug based on recently published ecotoxicological researches in Taiwan. Here we linked ecotoxicology models with an epidemiological scheme to assess exposure risks of aquatic organisms and environmental hazards posed by antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu) use in Taiwan. Built on published bioassays, we used probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate potential threats of environmentally relevant hazards on algae, daphnid, and zerbrafish. We found that Tamiflu use was unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk to daphnia and zebrafish during seasonal influenza. However, the chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu use during pandemic was alarming. We conclude that no significant risk to algal growth was found during seasonal influenza and high pandemic Tamiflu use. -- Highlights: • Environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug have ecotoxicologically important effects. • Tamiflu is unlikely to pose a significant chronic environmental risk during seasonal influenza. • Chronic environmental risk posed by Tamiflu during pandemic is alarming. • Tertiary process in sewage treatment plants is crucial in mitigating Tamiflu exposure risk. -- A probabilistic framework can be used for assessing exposure risks posed by environmentally relevant concentrations of anti-influenza drug in aquatic ecosystems

  3. Genetic Characterization of Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic 2009 Virus Isolates from Mumbai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohil, Devanshi; Kothari, Sweta; Shinde, Pramod; Meharunkar, Rhuta; Warke, Rajas; Chowdhary, Abhay; Deshmukh, Ranjana

    2017-08-01

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus was first detected in India in May 2009 which subsequently became endemic in many parts of the country. Influenza A viruses have the ability to evade the immune response through its ability of antigenic variations. The study aims to characterize influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 viruses circulating in Mumbai during the pandemic and post-pandemic period. Nasopharyngeal swabs positive for influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 viruses were inoculated on Madin-Darby canine kidney cell line for virus isolation. Molecular and phylogenetic analysis of influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 isolates was conducted to understand the evolution and genetic diversity of the strains. Nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the HA gene of Mumbai isolates when compared to A/California/07/2009-vaccine strain revealed 14 specific amino acid differences located at the antigenic sites. Amino acid variations in HA and NA gene resulted in changes in the N-linked glycosylation motif which may lead to immune evasion. Phylogenetic analysis of the isolates revealed their evolutionary position with vaccine strain A/California/07/2009 but had undergone changes gradually. The findings in the present study confirm genetic variability of influenza viruses and highlight the importance of continuous surveillance during influenza outbreaks.

  4. Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

    2012-01-01

    Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

  5. Central nervous system manifestations in pediatric patients with influenza A H1N1 infection during the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilking, Ashley N; Elliott, Elizabeth; Garcia, Melissa N; Murray, Kristy O; Munoz, Flor M

    2014-09-01

    A novel H1N1 influenza A virus (A(H1N1)pdm09) particularly affected individuals central nervous system complications associated with pandemic influenza in the pediatric population. Retrospective review of patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection and central nervous system manifestations at Texas Children's Hospital between April 2009 and June 2010. Among 365 patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 32 (8.8%) had central nervous system manifestations at a median age of 4 years. Eight (25.0%) were previously healthy, and 12 (37.5%) had neurological pre-existing conditions. Of the 32 cases of influenza with neurological complications, seizure (n = 17; 53.1%) was the most common central nervous system manifestation, followed by encephalitis (n = 4; 12.5%), meningitis (n = 4; 12.5%), encephalopathy (n = 3; 9.4%), meningismus (n = 3; 9.4%), focal hemorrhagic brain lesions (n = 2; 6.3%), brain infarction (n = 1; 3.1%), and sensorineural hearing loss (n = 1; 3.1%). Two patients demonstrated two or more types of central nervous system complications. One patient had abnormal cerebrospinal fluid with pleocytosis. Almost two thirds of the children with central nervous system manifestations required intensive care unit admission and nearly half required mechanical ventilation. There were no deaths. Patients with pre-existing neurological conditions were at greater risk for central nervous system manifestations during pandemic influenza infection. Patients with central nervous system manifestations were more likely to experience severe illness, characterized by intensive care unit admission and mechanical ventilation, although overall outcomes were good. Influenza prevention in patients with underlying medical conditions, particularly those with neurological conditions, is important. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Novel reassortment of Eurasian avian-like and pandemic/2009 influenza viruses in swine: Infectious potential for humans

    OpenAIRE

    Webster, RG; Chen, X; Zhou, B; Zhu, H; Lam, TTY; Chen, H; Peiris, JSM; Guan, Y; Wang, J; Fan, X; Smith, DK; Webby, R; Chen, A

    2011-01-01

    Pigs are considered to be intermediate hosts and "mixing vessels," facilitating the genesis of pandemic influenza viruses, as demonstrated by the emergence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pdm/09) virus. The prevalence and repeated introduction of the pdm/09 virus into pigs raises the possibility of generating novel swine influenza viruses with the potential to infect humans. To address this, an active influenza surveillance program was conducted with slaughtered pigs in abattoirs in southern China...

  7. Pandemic Influenza: Implications for Preparation and Delivery of Critical Care Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuell, Mary-Elise; Co, Mary Dawn T.; Ellison, Richard T.

    2014-01-01

    In a five week span during the 1918 influenza A pandemic, more than 2,000 patients were admitted to Cook County Hospital in Chicago with a diagnosis of either influenza or pneumonia; 642 patients, approximately 31% of those admitted, died with deaths occurring predominantly in patients twenty-five to thirty years of age.1 This review summarizes basic information on the biology, epidemiology, control, treatment and prevention of influenza overall, and then addresses the potential impact of pandemic influenza in an Intensive Care Unit setting. Issues that require consideration include workforce staffing and safety, resource management, alternate sites of care surge of patients, altered standards of care and crisis communication. PMID:21220275

  8. H7N9 avian influenza A virus and the perpetual challenge of potential human pandemicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M; Taubenberger, Jeffery K; Fauci, Anthony S

    2013-07-09

    ABSTRACT The ongoing H7N9 influenza epizootic in China once again presents us questions about the origin of pandemics and how to recognize them in early stages of development. Over the past ~135 years, H7 influenza viruses have neither caused pandemics nor been recognized as having undergone human adaptation. Yet several unusual properties of these viruses, including their poultry epizootic potential, mammalian adaptation, and atypical clinical syndromes in rarely infected humans, suggest that they may be different from other avian influenza viruses, thus questioning any assurance that the likelihood of human adaptation is low. At the same time, the H7N9 epizootic provides an opportunity to learn more about the mammalian/human adaptational capabilities of avian influenza viruses and challenges us to integrate virologic and public health research and surveillance at the animal-human interface.

  9. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wasserman Jeffrey

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs. Methods Building on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic. Results The literature contained a dearth

  10. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  11. Diagnostic Approach for the Differentiation of the Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)v Virus from Recent Human Influenza Viruses by Real-Time PCR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Martin; Nitsche, Andreas; Schweiger, Brunhilde; Biere, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    Background The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1)v virus. Principal Findings The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza) and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays), respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material. Conclusions We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses. PMID:20376359

  12. Diagnostic approach for the differentiation of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus from recent human influenza viruses by real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Martin; Nitsche, Andreas; Schweiger, Brunhilde; Biere, Barbara

    2010-04-01

    The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1)v virus. The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza) and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays), respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material. We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses.

  13. Diagnostic approach for the differentiation of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1v virus from recent human influenza viruses by real-time PCR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Schulze

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1v virus. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays, respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material. CONCLUSIONS: We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses.

  14. Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in 66 Large Cities in the United States in Years Surrounding the 1918 Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Viboud, Cécile; Chowell, Gerardo

    2011-01-01

    The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; Pcities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. PMID:21886792

  15. The 2009 pandemic in Mexico: Experience and lessons regarding national preparedness policies for seasonal and epidemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordova-Villalobos, Jose A; Macias, Alejandro E; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Lopez-Gatell, Hugo; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia; Ponce de León-Rosales, Samuel

    2017-01-01

    Influenza is a viral respiratory disease capable of causing epidemics that represent a threat for global security. Mexico was the first country to notify the WHO of an outbreak of what later became the first influenza pandemic of the 21st Century, caused by the virus A(H1N1)2009. Before this event Mexico had a national pandemic influenza preparedness plan, which included seasonal influenza vaccination, stockpiles of personal protection equipment and strategic drugs, and risk communication strategies. During the epidemic, the national public health laboratory network and case surveillance systems were strengthened together with surge capacities for intensive care and delivery of antiviral drugs. Risk communication was conducted for people to comply with implemented measures regarding social distancing (workplace and school closures, household quarantine). This report describes the Mexican experience during the 2009 influenza pandemic and the lessons that this experience provides to public health preparedness for future pandemics.

  16. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Distribution and risk factors of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-Q. Fang (Li-Qun); L-P. Wang (Li-Ping); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); S. Liang (Song); S-L. Tong (Shi-Lu); Y-L. Li (Yan-Li); Y-P. Li (Ya-Pin); Q. Qian (Quan); H. Yang (Hong); M-G. Zhou (Mai-Geng); X-F. Wang (Xiao-Feng); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); J-Q. Ma (Jia-Qi); W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractData from all reported cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of cases were characterized through spatial analysis. The impact of travel-related risk factors on

  18. Incorporating Research and Evaluation into Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-03-27

    Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a medical officer at CDC, discusses Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response.  Created: 3/27/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/27/2014.

  19. Public perceptions of pandemic influenza resource allocation: A deliberativeforum using Grid/Group analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Docter, S.P.; Street, J.; Braunack-Mayer, A.J.; van der Wilt, G.J.

    2011-01-01

    The emergence of virulent avian influenza A subtypes with potential to evolve into novel human subtypes prompted directives from the World Health Organisation recommending that countries prepare for a pandemic. In response the Australian government developed the Australian Health Management Plan for

  20. Polymorphisms in the hemagglutinin gene influenced the viral shedding of pandemic 2009 influenza virus in swine

    Science.gov (United States)

    The contribution of influenza virus quasi-species for transmission efficiency and replication is poorly understood. In the present study we show that naturally occurring polymorphisms present in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of two 2009 pandemic H1N1 isolates, A/California/04/2009 (Ca/09) and A/Mexico...

  1. Editorial The threat of a new influenza pandemic - are we doing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Editorial The threat of a new influenza pandemic - are we doing enough? Guy Richards. Abstract. No Abstract. South African Medical Journal Vol. 96 (3) 2006: 195-196. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. Article Metrics. Metrics Loading .

  2. Knowledge about Pandemic Influenza in Healthcare and Non-Healthcare Students in London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purssell, Edward; While, Alison

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the knowledge of university students regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza. Design: Online questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate and postgraduate students, including those on nursing, medical, other health and non-health related courses. Method: The sample was recruited using the university email system, and the…

  3. Coordination Costs for School-Located Influenza Vaccination Clinics, Maine, 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asay, Garrett R. Beeler; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Lorick, Suchita A.; Tipton, Meredith L.; Dube, Nancy L.; Messonnier, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    School nurses played a key role in Maine's school-located influenza vaccination (SLV) clinics during the 2009-2010 pandemic season. The objective of this study was to determine, from the school district perspective, the labor hours and costs associated with outside-clinic coordination activities (OCA). The authors defined OCA as labor hours spent…

  4. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus incursion into Africa: countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Swine origin influenza A/H1N1 virus was first detected in Mexico in April 2009. It thereafter spread to over a hundred countries in five continents including Africa and was declared a pandemic by the WHO. The disease was estimated to have caused 18,500 laboratory - confirmed deaths worldwide among millions of infected ...

  5. Healthcare workers' attitudes to working during pandemic influenza: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petts Judith I

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers (HCWs will play a key role in any response to pandemic influenza, and the UK healthcare system's ability to cope during an influenza pandemic will depend, to a large extent, on the number of HCWs who are able and willing to work through the crisis. UK emergency planning will be improved if planners have a better understanding of the reasons UK HCWs may have for their absenteeism, and what might motivate them to work during an influenza pandemic. This paper reports the results of a qualitative study that explored UK HCWs' views (n = 64 about working during an influenza pandemic, in order to identify factors that might influence their willingness and ability to work and to identify potential sources of any perceived duty on HCWs to work. Methods A qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 9 and interviews (n = 5. Results HCWs across a range of roles and grades tended to feel motivated by a sense of obligation to work through an influenza pandemic. A number of significant barriers that may prevent them from doing so were also identified. Perceived barriers to the ability to work included being ill oneself, transport difficulties, and childcare responsibilities. Perceived barriers to the willingness to work included: prioritising the wellbeing of family members; a lack of trust in, and goodwill towards, the NHS; a lack of information about the risks and what is expected of them during the crisis; fear of litigation; and the feeling that employers do not take the needs of staff seriously. Barriers to ability and barriers to willingness, however, are difficult to separate out. Conclusion Although our participants tended to feel a general obligation to work during an influenza pandemic, there are barriers to working, which, if generalisable, may significantly reduce the NHS workforce during a pandemic. The barriers identified are both barriers to willingness and to ability. This suggests that pandemic planning

  6. The influenza pandemic and Europe: the social impact and public health response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Paget

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is unpredictable. It is a virus that
    spreads globally and each season viruses emerge
    with different virological, clinical and epidemiological characteristics. Usually influenza affects 5-20% [1] of the population but sometimes a pandemic virus emerges which spreads on a worldwide scale and infects a larger proportion of the human population.
    On 11 June 2009 WHO announced that the world was confronted with a pandemic virus – pandemic (H1N1 2009 virus. This virus was first detected in two children in the United States in March 2009 but had its epidemiological origins in Mexico City in January-March 2009 [2]. The virus
    quickly spread to the US and Canada, and then further afield. In the European Union and EEA countries, there are currently 9453 cases and four deaths and globally there are now over 79,000 cases and 332 deaths (3 July 2009 [3].

  7. Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James W Rudge

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities, particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way

  8. Existing health inequalities in India: informing preparedness planning for an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Supriya; Quinn, Sandra C

    2012-09-01

    On 11 June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the world was in phase 6 of an influenza pandemic. In India, the first case of 2009 H1N1 influenza was reported on 16 May 2009 and by August 2010 (when the pandemic was declared over), 38730 cases of 2009 H1N1 had been confirmed of which there were 2024 deaths. Here, we propose a conceptual model of the sources of health disparities in an influenza pandemic in India. Guided by a published model of the plausible sources of such disparities in the United States, we reviewed the literature for the determinants of the plausible sources of health disparities during a pandemic in India. We find that factors at multiple social levels could determine inequalities in the risk of exposure and susceptibility to influenza, as well as access to treatment once infected: (1) religion, caste and indigenous identity, as well as education and gender at the individual level; (2) wealth at the household level; and (3) the type of location, ratio of health care practitioners to population served, access to transportation and public spending on health care in the geographic area of residence. Such inequalities could lead to unequal levels of disease and death. Whereas causal factors can only be determined by testing the model when incidence and mortality data, collected in conjunction with socio-economic and geographic factors, become available, we put forth recommendations that policy makers can undertake to ensure that the pandemic preparedness plan includes a focus on social inequalities in India in order to prevent their exacerbation in a pandemic.

  9. Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

    2013-06-01

    To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

  10. Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantz, Kyra H.; Rane, Madhura S.; Salje, Henrik; Glass, Gregory E.; Schachterle, Stephen E.; Cummings, Derek A. T.

    2016-01-01

    Social factors have been shown to create differential burden of influenza across different geographic areas. We explored the relationship between potential aggregate-level social determinants and mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago using a historical dataset of 7,971 influenza and pneumonia deaths. Census tract-level social factors, including rates of illiteracy, homeownership, population, and unemployment, were assessed as predictors of pandemic mortality in Chicago. Poisson models fit with generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the association between social factors and the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality. The Poisson model showed that influenza and pneumonia mortality increased, on average, by 32.2% for every 10% increase in illiteracy rate adjusted for population density, homeownership, unemployment, and age. We also found a significant association between transmissibility and population density, illiteracy, and unemployment but not homeownership. Lastly, analysis of the point locations of reported influenza and pneumonia deaths revealed fine-scale spatiotemporal clustering. This study shows that living in census tracts with higher illiteracy rates increased the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago. Our observation that disparities in structural determinants of neighborhood-level health lead to disparities in influenza incidence in this pandemic suggests that disparities and their determinants should remain targets of research and control in future pandemics. PMID:27872284

  11. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  12. Interpreting Google flu trends data for pandemic H1N1 influenza: the New Zealand experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, N; Mason, K; Tobias, M; Peacey, M; Huang, Q S; Baker, M

    2009-11-05

    For the period of the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza in New Zealand during 2009, we compared results from Google Flu Trends with data from existing surveillance systems. The patterns from Google Flu Trends were closely aligned with (peaking a week before and a week after) two independent national surveillance systems for influenza-like illness (ILI) cases. It was much less congruent with (delayed by three weeks) data from ILI-related calls to a national free-phone Healthline and with media coverage of pandemic influenza. Some patterns were unique to Google Flu Trends and may not have reflected the actual ILI burden in the community. Overall, Google Flu Trends appears to provide a useful free surveillance system but it should probably be seen as supplementary rather than as an alternative.

  13. Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Chowell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April-December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April-December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April-May (Mexico City area, a second wave in June-July (southeastern states, and a geographically widespread third wave in August-December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼ 18 years overall and increased to ∼ 31 years during autumn (p<0.0001. The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5% among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8-2.1, 1.6-1.9, and 1.2-1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%-37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school

  14. Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Shanks, G Dennis; Almeida, Francisco E A; Alonso, Wladimir J

    2013-01-01

    The naval experience with the 1918 pandemic during World War I remains underexplored despite its key role on the pandemic's global diffusion and the epidemiological interest of isolated and relatively homogeneous populations. The pandemic outbreak in the Brazilian naval fleet is of particular interest both because of its severity and the fact that it was the only Latin American military force deployed to war. To study the mortality patterns of the pandemic in the Brazilian fleet sent to patrol the West African coast in 1918. We investigated mortality across vessels, ranks, and occupations based on official population and mortality records from the Brazilian Navy Archives. The outbreak that swept this fleet included the highest influenza mortality rate on any naval ship reported to date. Nearly 10% of the crews died, with death rates reaching 13-14% on two destroyers. While overall mortality was lower for officers, stokers and engineer officers were significantly more likely to die from the pandemic, possibly due to the pulmonary damage from constant exposure to the smoke and coal dust from the boilers. The fatality patterns observed provide valuable data on the conditions that can exacerbate the impact of a pandemic. While the putative lack of exposure to a first pandemic wave may have played a role in the excessive mortality observed in this fleet, our results indicate that strenuous labor conditions, dehydration, and exposure to coal dust were major risk factors. The unequal death rates among vessels remain an open question. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  16. Pandemic A/H1N1 influenza: transmission of the first cases in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Català, Laura; Rius, Cristina; García de Olalla, Patricia; Nelson, Jeanne L; Alvarez, Josep; Minguell, Sofía; Camps, Neus; Sala, María Rosa; Arias, Carlos; Barrabeig, Irene; Carol, Mónica; Torra, Roser; Cardeñosa, Neus; Pumarola, Tomas; Caylà, Joan A

    2012-02-01

    Pandemic A/H1N1 influenza emerged in Mexico at the end of March 2009. Since then, it is still important to provide evidences that contributed to the international spread of the virus and to ascertain the attack rate of this new strain of influenza among the first cases in Spain that led to identify the first transmission in Europe. Three pandemic A/H1N1 influenza groups related to an overseas flight were studied: 71 student group, 94 remaining passengers, and 68 contacts of confirmed cases. The attack rate with their 95% confidence interval (CI) among the student group and contacts was calculated. On April 26th, when the first cases were notified, strong preventive measures were implemented among the student group and the contacts of the confirmed cases. On 27th April, the first pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases confirmed in Spain were three students that came back from Mexico by airplane. A student generated the first native case in Spain and one of the first cases in Europe. Similar attack rates were found between the student group (14.1%; CI: 12.1-16.1) and their contacts (13.2%; CI: 4.4-22.0), but no cases among remaining passengers were detected, suggesting low transmission risk during air travel. The first cases of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Spain were imported by airplane from Mexico. Preventive efforts to reduce the impact of the influenza influenced that primary and secondary rates were lower than first estimations by WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  17. Factors influencing uptake of influenza vaccine amongst healthcare workers in a regional center after the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic: lessons for improving vaccination rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagajdid, Mohamed Rida; El Annaz, Hicham; Belefquih, Bouchra; Doblali, Taoufik; Casalegno, Jean Sébastien; Mekki, Yahia; Mrani, Saâd

    2011-01-01

    Vaccination of health-care workers (HCWs) against seasonal influenza has been consistently recommended worldwide in order to prevent nosocomial transmission and ensure delivery of health-care services during outbreaks. Overall, immunization rates were low across all nation, including among HCWs. Little is known about the acceptability and compliance with seasonal influenza vaccine among HCWs after the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic. Between 1st and 31 January 2011, we conducted a questionnaire-based survey at the Ibn Sina regional center (Rabat, Morocco). Seven hundred twenty one HCWs have answered about their influenza immunization during the 2010/2011 season, as well as the reasons for accepting or declining this vaccine. Finally, we compare our results with previous moroccan survey. A total of 122 HCWs (17%) reported having received the 2010/2011 seasonal vaccine; "self-protection" and "protection of the patient" were the most frequently adduced reasons for acceptance of the influenza vaccination, whereas media controversy during the pandemic was the main argument for refusal. The post pandemic seasonal influenza vaccination coverage among the HCWs in our institution was very low. The role of media, specific attitudinal barriers and misconceptions about immunization in a global pandemic scenario is clear. The nearly constant media coverage of the A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, reported with varying degrees of accuracy, and sometimes portraying dramatic scenarios caused some to question whether unnecessary alarm and public panic resulted. We suggest that international or national health authorities have a clear speech over looked media and to own these institutions, which will air fair and real time information about the disease.

  18. Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

    2016-07-01

    Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

  19. Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, S

    2017-10-01

    Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

  20. 2015 Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment Among US Public Health Emergency Preparedness Awardees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Thomas J; Moulia, Danielle L; Graitcer, Samuel B; Vagi, Sara J; Dopson, Stephanie A

    2017-09-01

    To assess how US Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) awardees plan to respond to an influenza pandemic with vaccination. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment, an online survey sent to PHEP directors, to analyze, in part, the readiness of PHEP awardees to vaccinate 80% of the populations of their jurisdictions with 2 doses of pandemic influenza vaccine, separated by 21 days, within 16 weeks of vaccine availability. Thirty-eight of 60 (63.3%) awardees reported being able to vaccinate their populations within 16 weeks; 38 (63.3%) planned to allocate more than 20% of their pandemic vaccine supply to points of dispensing (PODs). Thirty-four of 58 (58.6%) reported staffing as a challenge to vaccinating 80% of their populations; 28 of 60 (46.7%) reported preparedness workforce decreases, and 22 (36.7%) reported immunization workforce decreases between January 2012 and July 2015. Awardees relied on PODs to vaccinate segments of their jurisdictions despite workforce decreases. Planners must ensure readiness for POD sites to vaccinate, but should also leverage complementary sites and providers to augment public health response.

  1. Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Ignacio; Nelson, Martha I; Quezada-Monroy, Francisco; Dutta, Jayeeta; Cortes-Fernández, Refugio; Lara-Puente, J Horacio; Castro-Peralta, Felipa; Cunha, Luis F; Trovão, Nídia S; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Rambaut, Andrew; van Bakel, Harm; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2016-01-01

    Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001 PMID:27350259

  2. Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Ignacio; Nelson, Martha I; Quezada-Monroy, Francisco; Dutta, Jayeeta; Cortes-Fernández, Refugio; Lara-Puente, J Horacio; Castro-Peralta, Felipa; Cunha, Luis F; Trovão, Nídia S; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Rambaut, Andrew; van Bakel, Harm; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2016-06-28

    Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade.

  3. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 vaccine: An update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M K Goel

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The world witnessed a the first influenza pandemic in this century and fourth overall since first flu pandemic was reported during the World War I. The past experiences with influenza viruses and this pandemic of H1N1 place a consider-able strain on health services and resulted in serious illnesses and a large number of deaths. Develop-ing countries were declared more likely to be at risk from the pandemic effects, as they faced the dual problem of highly vulnerable populations and limited resources to respond H1N1. The public health experts agreed that vaccination is the most effective ways to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic. The vaccines for H1N1 virus have been used in over 40 coun-tries and administered to over 200 million people helped in a great way and on August 10, 2010, World Health Organization (WHO announced H1N1 to be in postpandemic period. But based on knowledge about past pandemics, the H1N1 (2009 virus is expected to continue to circulate as a seasonal virus and may undergo some agenic-variation. As WHO strongly recommends vaccination, vigilance for regular updating of the composition of influenza vaccines, based on an assessment of the future impact of circulating viruses along with safety surveillance of the vaccines is necessary. This review has been done to take a stock of the currently available H1N1 vaccines and their possible use as public health intervention in the postpandemic period.

  4. Responding to vaccine safety signals during pandemic influenza: a modeling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith C Maro

    Full Text Available Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1 expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3 expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4 expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3:1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.

  5. Meteorological Influence on the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic in Mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X.; Cai, J.; Feng, D.; Bai, Y.; Xu, B.

    2015-12-01

    Since May 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has spread rapidly in mainland China from Mexico. Although there has been substantial analysis of this influenza, reliable work estimating its spatial dynamics and determinants remain scarce. The survival and transmission of this pandemic virus not only depends on its biological properties, but also a correlation with external environmental factors. In this study, we collected daily influenza A (H1N1) cases and corresponding annual meteorological factors in mainland China from May 2009 to April 2010. By analyzing these data at county-level, a similarity index, which considered the spatio-temporal characteristics of the disease, was proposed to evaluate the role and lag time of meteorological factors in the influenza transmission. The results indicated that the influenza spanned a large geographical area, following an overall trend from east to west across the country. The spatio-temporal transmission of the disease was affected by a series of meteorological variables, especially absolute humidity with a 3-week lag. These findings confirmed that the absolute humidity and other meteorological variables contributed to the local occurrence and dispersal of influenza A (H1N1). The impact of meteorological variables and their lag effects could be involved in the improvement of effective strategies to control and prevent disease outbreaks.

  6. A candidate H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine elicits protective immunity in mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Steitz

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2009 a new pandemic disease appeared and spread globally. The recent emergence of the pandemic influenza virus H1N1 first isolated in Mexico and USA raised concerns about vaccine availability. We here report our development of an adenovirus-based influenza H1N1 vaccine tested for immunogenicity and efficacy to confer protection in animal model.We generated two adenovirus(Ad5-based influenza vaccine candidates encoding the wildtype or a codon-optimized hemagglutinin antigen (HA from the recently emerged swine influenza isolate A/California/04/2009 (H1N1pdm. After verification of antigen expression, immunogenicity of the vaccine candidates were tested in a mouse model using dose escalations for subcutaneous immunization. Sera of immunized animals were tested in microneutalization and hemagglutination inhibition assays for the presence of HA-specific antibodies. HA-specific T-cells were measured in IFNgamma Elispot assays. The efficiency of the influenza vaccine candidates were evaluated in a challenge model by measuring viral titer in lung and nasal turbinate 3 days after inoculation of a homologous H1N1 virus.A single immunization resulted in robust cellular and humoral immune response. Remarkably, the intensity of the immune response was substantially enhanced with codon-optimized antigen, indicating the benefit of manipulating the genetic code of HA antigens in the context of recombinant influenza vaccine design. These results highlight the value of advanced technologies in vaccine development and deployment in response to infections with pandemic potential. Our study emphasizes the potential of an adenoviral-based influenza vaccine platform with the benefits of speed of manufacture and efficacy of a single dose immunization.

  7. Immunological characterization of monoclonal antibodies used in rapid influenza diagnostic test for detection of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Hwajung; Lee, Mi-Seon; Lee, Joo-Yeon; Lee, Hae Kyung; Kang, Chun

    2015-02-01

    Since the 2009 pandemic, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDT) have been developed for specific diagnostics of pandemic viral infection. Most of the mAbs were poorly characterized because of urgency during the pandemic. Further characterization of the mAbs for RIDTs would be beneficial for understanding the immunological properties of the pandemic virus and utilizing the mAbs for other research purposes. In this study, it was confirmed that two mAbs (I38 and D383) in an RIDT for H1N1pdm09 diagnostics were able to detect H1N1pdm09 virus through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunofluorescence assay (IFA). Also, the two mAbs exhibited reactivity to hemagglutinins (HAs) of both the H1N1pdm09 and 1918 H1N1 viruses; therefore, the RIDT using the mAbs could detect HAs of H1N1pdm09 and also HAs of 1918 H1N1-like strains. In an extension to our previous study, the epitopes (Sa antigenic site and the interface area of F' and vestigial esterase subdomains on the HA1 domain of HA of H1N1pdm09) recognized by the mAbs were corroborated in depth by IFA with escape-mutants from the mAbs and mapping of the epitopes on the crystal structure of human H1N1 viral HAs. Collectively, these results imply that the mAbs for the RIDT may be suitable for use in studying the immunological properties of H1N1pdm09 viruses and that the Sa antigenic site and the interface area between F' and vestigial esterase subdomains on influenza viral HA recognized by the mAbs are immunologically conserved regions between H1N1pdm09 and 1918 H1N1.

  8. Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

    2013-10-04

    Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is

  9. Pneumonia and Pandemic Influenza A H1N1 Virus Infection: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Servet Kayhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza viruses cause seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics. On 18 March 2009, A novel swine origin influenza A (H1N1 virus was seen in Mexico, then a global outbreak of respiratory illness started. The new H1N1 virus usually attaches to tracheobronchial epithelial cells and the clinical picture ranges from transient lower respiratory tract infections to severe pneumonia leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The main complication is extension of viral infection to the alveoli that causes primary viral pneumonia. The most common radiologic findings are unilateral or bilateral ground-glass opacities and multifocal areas of consolidations Bacterial coinfections, particularly Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus, increase the severity of illness. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary comorbid conditions, pregnancy and obesity appear to be at higher risk of severe pneumonia. The severe cases have required admission to intensive care units and needs to mechanical ventilation. H1N1 influenza virus is now in post-pandemic period; however, localized outbreaks of various magnitudes are being reported. Keywords: H1N1; influenza; pandemic; pneumonia

  10. Heterogeneous virulence of pandemic 2009 influenza H1N1 virus in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farooqui Amber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the pathogenesis of influenza infection is a key factor leading to the prevention and control of future outbreaks. Pandemic 2009 Influenza H1N1 infection, although frequently mild, led to a severe and fatal form of disease in certain cases that make its virulence nature debatable. Much effort has been made toward explaining the determinants of disease severity; however, no absolute reason has been established. Results This study presents the heterogeneous virulence of clinically similar strains of pandemic 2009 influenza virus in human alveolar adenocarcinoma cells and mice. The viruses were obtained from patients who were admitted in a local hospital in China with a similar course of infection and recovered. The A/Nanchang/8002/2009 and A/Nanchang/8011/2009 viruses showed efficient replication and high lethality in mice while infection with A/Nanchang/8008/2009 was not lethal with impaired viral replication, minimal pathology and modest proinflammatory activity in lungs. Sequence analysis displayed prominent differences between polymerase subunits (PB2 and PA of viral genomes that might correlate with their different phenotypic behavior. Conclusions The study confirms that biological heterogeneity, linked with the extent of viral replication, exists among pandemic H1N1 strains that may serve as a benchmark for future investigations on influenza pathogenesis.

  11. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Methods: The case and outbreak reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) were collected from the Chinese information system of disease control and prevention and the influenza surveillance system of Zhanjiang city. ... Conclusion: The main population struck by the H1N1-2009 virus was young adults, youths and children.

  12. Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

    2014-09-01

    The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1.2 million U.S. troops. With over 26,000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered "America's deadliest battle". The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45,000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded "America's deadliest". The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. 1918 Influenza Pandemic: In Utero Exposure in the United States and Long-Term Impact on Hospitalizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acquah, Joseph Kofi; Dahal, Roshani; Sloan, Frank A

    2017-09-01

    To explore associations between in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic and hospitalization rates in old age (≥ 70 years) in the United States. We identified individuals exposed (mild and deadly waves) and unexposed in utero to the 1918 influenza pandemic (a natural experiment) by using birth dates from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old survey. We analyzed differences in hospitalization rates by exposure status with multivariate linear regression. In utero exposure to the deadly wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic increased the number of hospital visits by 10.0 per 100 persons. For those exposed in utero to the deadliest wave of the influenza pandemic, high rates of functional limitations are shown to drive the higher rates of hospitalizations in old age. In utero exposure to the influenza pandemic increased functional limitations and hospitalization rates in old age. Public Health Implications. To determine investments in influenza pandemic prevention programs that protect fetal health, policymakers should include long-term reductions in hospitalizations in their cost-benefit evaluations.

  14. Beyond resistance: social factors in the general public response to pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Mark D M; Stephenson, Niamh; Lohm, Davina; Waller, Emily; Flowers, Paul

    2015-04-29

    Influencing the general public response to pandemics is a public health priority. There is a prevailing view, however, that the general public is resistant to communications on pandemic influenza and that behavioural responses to the 2009/10 H1N1 pandemic were not sufficient. Using qualitative methods, this paper investigates how members of the general public respond to pandemic influenza and the hygiene, social isolation and other measures proposed by public health. Going beyond the commonly deployed notion that the general public is resistant to public health communications, this paper examines how health individualism, gender and real world constraints enable and limit individual action. In-depth interviews (n = 57) and focus groups (ten focus groups; 59 individuals) were conducted with community samples in Melbourne, Sydney and Glasgow. Participants were selected according to maximum variation sampling using purposive criteria, including: 1) pregnancy in 2009/2010; 2) chronic illness; 3) aged 70 years and over; 4) no disclosed health problems. Verbatim transcripts were subjected to inductive, thematic analysis. Respondents did not express resistance to public health communications, but gave insight into how they interpreted and implemented guidance. An individualistic approach to pandemic risk predominated. The uptake of hygiene, social isolation and vaccine strategies was constrained by seeing oneself 'at risk' but not 'a risk' to others. Gender norms shape how members of the general public enact hygiene and social isolation. Other challenges pertained to over-reliance on perceived remoteness from risk, expectation of recovery from infection and practical constraints on the uptake of vaccination. Overall, respondents were engaged with public health advice regarding pandemic influenza, indicating that the idea of public resistance has limited explanatory power. Public communications are endorsed, but challenges persist. Individualistic approaches to pandemic

  15. Response to the 2009-H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Mekong Basin: surveys of country health leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dausey David J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Soon after the 2009-H1N1 virus emerged as the first influenza pandemic in 41 years, countries had an early opportunity to test their preparedness plans, protocols and procedures, including their cooperation with other countries in responding to the global pandemic threat. The Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance cooperation (MBDS comprises six countries - Cambodia, China (Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam - that formally organized themselves in 2001 to cooperate in disease surveillance and control. The pandemic presented an opportunity to assess their responses in light of their individual and joint planning. We conducted two surveys of the MBDS leadership from each country, early during the pandemic and shortly after it ended. Results On average, participants rated their country's pandemic response performance as good in both 2009 and 2010. Post-pandemic (2010, perceived performance quality was best for facility-based interventions (overall mean of 4.2 on a scale from 1 = poor to 5 = excellent, followed by surveillance and information sharing (4.1, risk communications (3.9 and disease prevention and control in communities (3.7. Performance was consistently rated as good or excellent for use of hotlines for case reporting (2010 mean of 4.4 and of selected facility-based interventions (each with a 2010 mean of 4.4: using hospital admission criteria, preparing or using isolation areas, using PPE for healthcare workers and using antiviral drugs for treatment. In at least half the countries, the post-pandemic ratings were lower than initial 2009 assessments for performance related to surveillance, facility-based interventions and risk communications. Conclusions MBDS health leaders perceived their pandemic responses effective in areas previously considered problematic. Most felt that MBDS cooperation helped drive and thus added value to their efforts. Surveillance capacity

  16. The timing and targeting of treatment in influenza pandemics influences the emergence of resistance in structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althouse, Benjamin M; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Goerg, Georg M; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent

    2013-01-01

    Antiviral resistance in influenza is rampant and has the possibility of causing major morbidity and mortality. Previous models have identified treatment regimes to minimize total infections and keep resistance low. However, the bulk of these studies have ignored stochasticity and heterogeneous contact structures. Here we develop a network model of influenza transmission with treatment and resistance, and present both standard mean-field approximations as well as simulated dynamics. We find differences in the final epidemic sizes for identical transmission parameters (bistability) leading to different optimal treatment timing depending on the number initially infected. We also find, contrary to previous results, that treatment targeted by number of contacts per individual (node degree) gives rise to more resistance at lower levels of treatment than non-targeted treatment. Finally we highlight important differences between the two methods of analysis (mean-field versus stochastic simulations), and show where traditional mean-field approximations fail. Our results have important implications not only for the timing and distribution of influenza chemotherapy, but also for mathematical epidemiological modeling in general. Antiviral resistance in influenza may carry large consequences for pandemic mitigation efforts, and models ignoring contact heterogeneity and stochasticity may provide misleading policy recommendations.

  17. The timing and targeting of treatment in influenza pandemics influences the emergence of resistance in structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M Althouse

    Full Text Available Antiviral resistance in influenza is rampant and has the possibility of causing major morbidity and mortality. Previous models have identified treatment regimes to minimize total infections and keep resistance low. However, the bulk of these studies have ignored stochasticity and heterogeneous contact structures. Here we develop a network model of influenza transmission with treatment and resistance, and present both standard mean-field approximations as well as simulated dynamics. We find differences in the final epidemic sizes for identical transmission parameters (bistability leading to different optimal treatment timing depending on the number initially infected. We also find, contrary to previous results, that treatment targeted by number of contacts per individual (node degree gives rise to more resistance at lower levels of treatment than non-targeted treatment. Finally we highlight important differences between the two methods of analysis (mean-field versus stochastic simulations, and show where traditional mean-field approximations fail. Our results have important implications not only for the timing and distribution of influenza chemotherapy, but also for mathematical epidemiological modeling in general. Antiviral resistance in influenza may carry large consequences for pandemic mitigation efforts, and models ignoring contact heterogeneity and stochasticity may provide misleading policy recommendations.

  18. The social determinants of health and pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowcock, Elizabeth C; Rosella, Laura C; Foisy, Julie; McGeer, Allison; Crowcroft, Natasha

    2012-08-01

    We explored the effects of social determinants of health on pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza severity and the role of clinical risk factors in mediating such associations. We used multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to examine the associations between individual- and ecological-level social determinants of health and hospitalization for pandemic H1N1 2009 illness in a case-control study in Ontario, Canada. During the first pandemic phase (April 23-July 20, 2009), hospitalization was associated with having a high school education or less and living in a neighborhood with high material or total deprivation. We also observed the association with education in the second phase (August 1-November 6, 2009). Clinical risk factors for severe pandemic H1N1 2009 illness mediated approximately 39% of the observed association. The main clinical risk factors for severe pandemic H1N1 2009 illness explain only a portion of the associations observed between social determinants of health and hospitalization, suggesting that the means by which the social determinants of health affect pandemic H1N1 2009 outcomes extend beyond clinically recognized risk factors.

  19. Key points in evaluating immunogenicity of pandemic influenza vaccines: A lesson from immunogenicity studies of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuji, Satoko; Kobayashi, Masayuki; Ide, Yuichiro; Egawa, Yumi; Saito, Tomoko; Kondo, Kyoko; Ito, Kazuya; Kase, Tetsuo; Maeda, Akiko; Fukushima, Wakaba; Hirota, Yoshio

    2017-09-18

    Immunogenicity studies on pandemic influenza vaccine are necessary to inform rapid development and implementation of a vaccine during a pandemic. Thus, strategies for immunogenicity assessment are required. To identify essential factors to consider when evaluating the immunogenicity of pandemic influenza vaccines using the experience in Japan with the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine. We conducted a search of observational studies using PubMed and IchushiWeb. Search terms included "influenza vaccine AND (immunogenicity OR immune response) AND Japan AND (2009 OR pdm09) NOT review," and was limited to studies conducted in humans. A total of 33 articles were identified, of which 16 articles met the inclusion criteria. Immunogenicity of the commercially available influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine satisfied the international criteria for influenza vaccine immunogenicity in all study populations. The most remarkable immune response was observed in junior high school students, while the lowest immune response was observed in hematological malignancy patients. Similar to immunogenicity studies on seasonal influenza vaccines, factors such as patient background (e.g., age, underlying condition, pre-vaccination titer, body mass index, etc.) and study procedure (e.g., concurrent measurement of pre- and post-vaccination antibody titer, effects of infection during the study period) may have affected the assessment of immunogenicity to the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine. In addition, prior vaccination with the seasonal influenza vaccine may inhibit antibody induction by the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine. This review discusses factors and strategies that must be considered and addressed during immunogenicity assessments of pandemic influenza vaccines, which may provide useful information for future influenza pandemics. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Qualitative motivators and barriers to pandemic vs. seasonal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers: a content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prematunge, Chatura; Corace, Kimberly; McCarthy, Anne; Nair, Rama C; Roth, Virginia; Suh, Kathryn N; Garber, Gary

    2014-12-12

    Influenza is a major concern across healthcare environments. Annual vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) remains a key mode of influenza prevention in healthcare settings. Yet influenza vaccine coverage among HCWs continues to be below recommended targets, in pandemic and non-pandemic settings. Thus, the primary objective of this analysis is to identify motivators and barriers to pandemic (panINFLU) and seasonal influenza vaccination (sINFLU) through the qualitative analysis of HCW provided reasons driving HCW's personal vaccination decisions. Data were collected from a multi-professional sample of HCWs via a cross-sectional survey study, conducted at a tertiary-care hospital in Ontario, Canada. HCW provided and ranked qualitative reasons for personal (1) panINFLU (pH1N1) and (2) sINFLU (2008/2009 season) vaccine uptake and avoidance were used to identify key vaccination motivators and barriers through content analysis methodology. Most HCW vaccination motivators and barriers were found to be similar for panINFLU and sINFLU vaccines. Personal motivators had the greatest impact on vaccination (panINFLU 29.9% and sINFLU 33.9%). Other motivators included preventing influenza in loved ones, patients, and community, and awareness of HCW role in influenza transmission. In contrast, concerns of vaccine safety and limited HCW knowledge of influenza vaccines (panINFLU 46.2% and sINFLU 37.3%). HCW vaccination during the pandemic was motivated by panINFLU related fear, epidemiology, and workplace pro-vaccination policies. HCW perceptions of accelerated panINFLU vaccine development and vaccine safety compromises, negative views of external sources (i.e. media, pharmaceutical companies, and regulatory agencies) and pandemic management strategies were barriers specific to panINFLU vaccine. HCW panINFLU and sINFLU vaccine coverage can increase if future vaccination programs (1) highlight personal vaccination benefits (2) emphasize the impact HCW non-vaccination on family

  1. [Influenza pandemic deaths in Germany from 1918 to 2009. Estimates based on literature and own calculations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, Udo; Buda, Silke; Reuß, Annicka; Haas, Walter; Uphoff, Helmut

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of the number of deaths as a consequence of the influenza pandemics in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1970 and 2009) is a challenge worldwide and also in Germany. After conducting a systematic literature search complemented by our own calculations, values and estimates for all four pandemics were collated and evaluated. A systematic literature search including the terms death, mortality, pandemic, epidemic, Germany, 1918, 1957, 1968, 2009 was performed. Hits were reviewed by title and abstract and selected for possible relevance. We derived our own estimates using excess mortality calculations, which estimate the mortality exceeding that to be expected. All identified values were evaluated by methodology and quality of the database. Numbers of pandemic deaths were used to calculate case fatality rates and were compared with global values provided by the World Health Organization. For the pandemic 1918-1919 we identified 5 relevant publications, 3 for the pandemics 1957-1958 and 1968-1970 and 3 for 2009. For all four pandemics the most plausible estimations were based on time series analyses, taken either from the literature or from our own calculations based on monthly or weekly all cause death statistics. For the four pandemics these estimates were in chronological order 426,600 (1918-1919), 29,100 (1957-1958), 46,900 (1968-1970) and 350 (2009) excess pandemic-related deaths. This translates to an excess mortality ranging between 691 per 100,000 (0.69 % in 1918-1919) and 0.43 per 100,000 (0.00043 % in 2009). Case fatality rates showed good agreement with global estimates. We have proposed plausible estimates of pandemic-related excess number of deaths for the last four pandemics as well as excess mortality in Germany. The heterogeneity among pandemics is large with a variation factor of more than 1000. Possible explanations include characteristics of the virus or host (immunity), social conditions, status

  2. Prevalence of Influenza A (H1N1) Sero positivity in Unvaccinated Health care Workers in Scotland at the Height of the Global Pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, K.; Katikireddi, S.V.; Mackenzie, D.G.; Warner, P.; Williams, L.J.; Adamson, W.E.; Carman, W.F.; Dewart, P.; Templeton, K.; Denison, F.C.

    2011-01-01

    Background. We set out to identify the level of previous exposure to influenza A (H1N1) in unvaccinated health care workers (HCWs) at the peak of the pandemic outbreak in the UK, with control samples collected prior to the outbreak. Methods. Cross-sectional study (sero prevalence assessed before and at pandemic peak, with questionnaire data collected at peak of outbreak) in HCWs in Scotland. Results. The prevalence of sero positivity in 493 HCWs at pandemic peak was 10.3%, which was higher than the pre pandemic level by 3.7 percentage points (95% CI 0.3% to 7.3%, P=0.048). Sero positivity rates for front line and non front line HCWs were similar. Conclusion. At pandemic peak, only 10.3% of HCWs were seropositive for influenza A (H1N1), so the great majority were still susceptible to infection at the introduction of the vaccination programme. Few studies have reported on sero prevalence in unvaccinated and asymptomatic participants, so our findings may have relevance to the wider population

  3. Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli P Fenichel

    Full Text Available Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over "swine flu," as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.

  4. Pandemic influenza and excess intensive-care workload

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nap, Raoul E.; Andriessen, Maarten P. H. M.; Meessen, Nico E. L.; Miranda, Dinis dos Reis; van der Werf, Tjip S.

    2008-01-01

    In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We provide estimates for peak demand for healthcare workers, factoring in healthcare

  5. Determinants of non-vaccination against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in pregnant women: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Freund

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 882 pregnant women were randomly included between October 12, 2009 and February 3, 2010, with the aim to study characteristics of pandemic influenza during pregnancy. At inclusion, socio-demographic, medical, obstetrical factors and those associated with a higher risk of flu exposition and disease-spreading were systematically collected. Pandemic flu vaccine uptake was checked until delivery. 555 (62.9% women did not get vaccinated. Determinants associated with non-vaccination in a multivariate logistic regression were: geographic origin (Sub-Saharan African origin, adjusted Odd Ratio aOR = 5.4[2.3-12.7], North African origin, aOR = 2.5[1.3-4.7] and Asian origin, aOR = 2.1[1.7-2.6] compared to French and European origin and socio-professional categories (farmers, craftsmen and tradesmen, aOR = 2.3[2.0-2.6], intermediate professionals, aOR = 1.3[1.0-1.6], employees and manual workers, aOR = 2.5[1.4-4.4] compared to managers and intellectual professionals. The probability of not receiving pandemic flu vaccine was lower among women vaccinated against seasonal flu in the previous 5 years (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8] and among those who stopped smoking before or early during pregnancy (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]. Number of children less than 18 years old living at home, work in contact with children or in healthcare area, or professional contact with the public, were not associated with a higher vaccine uptake. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this cohort of pregnant women, vaccine coverage against pandemic

  6. Determinants of non-vaccination against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in pregnant women: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Romain; Le Ray, Camille; Charlier, Caroline; Avenell, Carolyn; Truster, Van; Tréluyer, Jean-Marc; Skalli, Dounia; Ville, Yves; Goffinet, François; Launay, Odile

    2011-01-01

    In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women. In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 882 pregnant women were randomly included between October 12, 2009 and February 3, 2010, with the aim to study characteristics of pandemic influenza during pregnancy. At inclusion, socio-demographic, medical, obstetrical factors and those associated with a higher risk of flu exposition and disease-spreading were systematically collected. Pandemic flu vaccine uptake was checked until delivery. 555 (62.9%) women did not get vaccinated. Determinants associated with non-vaccination in a multivariate logistic regression were: geographic origin (Sub-Saharan African origin, adjusted Odd Ratio aOR = 5.4[2.3-12.7], North African origin, aOR = 2.5[1.3-4.7] and Asian origin, aOR = 2.1[1.7-2.6] compared to French and European origin) and socio-professional categories (farmers, craftsmen and tradesmen, aOR = 2.3[2.0-2.6], intermediate professionals, aOR = 1.3[1.0-1.6], employees and manual workers, aOR = 2.5[1.4-4.4] compared to managers and intellectual professionals). The probability of not receiving pandemic flu vaccine was lower among women vaccinated against seasonal flu in the previous 5 years (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]) and among those who stopped smoking before or early during pregnancy (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]). Number of children less than 18 years old living at home, work in contact with children or in healthcare area, or professional contact with the public, were not associated with a higher vaccine uptake. In this cohort of pregnant women, vaccine coverage against pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 flu was low, particularly in immigrant women and those having a low socio

  7. Thromboembolic events in patients with severe pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avnon, Lone Sølling; Munteanu, Daniela; Smoliakov, Alexander; Jotkowitz, Alan; Barski, Leonid

    2015-10-01

    The 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 developed as a novel swine influenza which caused more diseases among younger age groups than in the elderly. Severe hypoxemic respiratory failure from A/H1N1 pneumonia resulted in an increased need for ICU beds. Several risk groups were identified that were at a higher risk for adverse outcomes. Pregnant women were a particularly vulnerable group of patients The CDC reported on the first ten patients with severe illness and acute hypoxemic respiratory failure associated with A/H1N1 infection, none of whom were pregnant, but they noticed that half of the patients had a pulmonary embolism. During a four-month period from September to December 2009, 252 patients were admitted to our hospital with confirmed pandemic influenza H1N1 by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction test (rRT-PCR). We cared for twenty patients (7.9%) admitted to MICU with severe A/H1N1. Results on Thrombotic events were identified in five (25%) of our critically ill patients. We recommend that patients with severe influenza A/H1N1 pneumonitis and respiratory failure be administered DVT prophylaxis in particular if there are additional risk factors for TVE. Further prospective studies on the relationship of influenza A/H1N1 and VTE are needed. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Adenovirus-Vectored Vaccine as a Rapid-Response Tool Against Avian Influenza Pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Kampen, K. R.; Tang, D. C.

    2007-01-01

    Influenza viruses in nature undergo genetic mutation and reassortment. Three pandemics of avian influenza in man were recorded in the twentieth century. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses currently in circulation pose a threat for another world-wide pandemic, if they become transmissible from man to man. Manufacturing protective vaccines using current egg-based technology is often difficult due to the virulence of the virus and its adverse effects on the embryonating egg substrate. New technologies allow the creation of safe and protective pandemic influenza vaccines without the need for egg based substrates. These technologies allow new vaccines to be created in less than one month. Manufacturing is in tissue culture, not eggs. Vaccine can be administered to man non-invasively, without adjuvants, eliciting a rapid and protective immune response. Protective immunity against avian influenza (AI) virus was elicited in chickens by single-dose in ovo vaccination with a replication-competent adenovirus (RCA)-free human adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5)-derived vector encoding an H5N9 avian influenza virus hemagglutinin. Vaccinated chickens were protected against both H5N1 and H5N2 HPAI virus challenges. Mass-administration of this bird flu vaccine can be streamlined with available robotic in ovo injectors. Vaccination using this vaccine could protect the the largest host reservoir (chickens) and greatly reduce the exposure of man to avian influenza. In addition, Ad5-vectored vaccines can be produced rapidly and the safety margin of a non-replicating vector is superior to that of a replicating counterpart. Furthermore, this mode of vaccination is compatible with epidemiological surveys of natural AI virus infections. In addition to mass immunization of poultry, both animals and humans have been effectively immunized by intranasal administration of Ad5-vectored influenza vaccines without any appreciable side effects, even in mice and human volunteers with

  9. Protecting Home Health Care Workers: A Challenge to Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhaul, Kathleen; Phillips, Sally; Gershon, Robyn; Lipscomb, Jane

    2009-01-01

    The home health care sector is a critical element in a pandemic influenza emergency response. Roughly 85% of the 1.5 million workers delivering in-home care to 7.6 million clients are low-wage paraprofessionals, mostly women, and disproportionately members of racial and ethnic minorities. Home health care workers' ability and willingness to respond during a pandemic depends on appropriate communication, training, and adequate protections, including influenza vaccination and respiratory protection. Preparedness planning should also include support for child care and transportation and help home health care workers protect their income and access to health care. We summarize findings from a national stakeholder meeting, which highlighted the need to integrate home health care employers, workers, community advocates, and labor unions into the planning process. PMID:19461108

  10. Pandemic Influenza: An Analysis of State Preparedness and Response Plans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lister, Sarah A; Stockdale, Holly

    2007-01-01

    .... Since 2002, Congress has provided funding to all U.S. states, territories, and the District of Columbia, to enhance federal, state and local preparedness for public health threats in general, and an influenza ( flu...

  11. Streptococcus pneumoniae coinfection is correlated with the severity of H1N1 pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Palacios

    2009-12-01

    S. pneumoniae was 125.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.95, 928.72; p<0.0001.The association of S. pneumoniae with morbidity and mortality is established in the current and previous influenza pandemics. However, this study is the first to demonstrate the prognostic significance of non-invasive antemortem diagnosis of S. pneumoniae infection and may provide insights into clinical management.

  12. Tolerability of 2 doses of pandemic influenza vaccine (Focetria®) and of a prior dose of seasonal 2009-2010 influenza vaccination in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, N A T; Godefrooij, S; Vermeer-de Bondt, P E; de Melker, H E; Kemmeren, J

    2016-04-02

    In the Netherlands, people indicated for seasonal influenza vaccination are divided in 3 risk groups, i.e. those less than 60 y (y) with comorbidity and those 60 y and over with and without comorbidity. Those risk groups were also eligible for pandemic vaccination during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. We assessed tolerability of seasonal influenza vaccination and 2 doses of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccine, adjuvanted with MF-59, administered 2 and 5 weeks after seasonal 2009-2010 vaccination among adults. Vaccinees were asked to return questionnaires on local and systemic adverse events (AEs) after each of 3 consecutive vaccinations given at the office of their General Practitioner. Sex- and risk group-specific AE-frequencies were calculated. Generalized Linear Mixed Model with seasonal vaccination as reference was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for AEs of the 2 pandemic doses. 5553 questionnaires (3251 vaccinees) were returned. Vaccinees reported any local AE after seasonal vaccination and both pandemic doses in 34%, 23%, and 18%, respectively. These percentages were 29%, 25%, and 16% for any systemic AE. Men reported fewer local and systemic AEs then women (ppandemic doses compared to seasonal vaccination. This decreased risk was more pronounced after the second pandemic dose than after the first. Therefore, we conclude that MF59-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine given after seasonal vaccination was well tolerated.

  13. Pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in Chilean commercial turkeys with genetic and serologic comparisons to U.S. H1N1 avian influenza vaccine isolates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beginning in April 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza virus has caused acute respiratory disease in humans, first in Mexico and then spreading around the world. The resulting pandemic influenza A H1N1 2009 (pH1N1) virus was isolated in swine in Canada in June, 2009, and later in turkey breeders in Chile, ...

  14. Sublingual administration of bacteria-expressed influenza virus hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) induces protection against infection with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Byoung-Shik; Choi, Jung-Ah; Song, Ho-Hyun; Park, Sung-Moo; Cheon, In Su; Jang, Ji-Eun; Woo, Sun Je; Cho, Chung Hwan; Song, Min-Suk; Kim, Hyemi; Song, Kyung Joo; Lee, Jae Myun; Kim, Suhng Wook; Song, Dae Sub; Choi, Young Ki; Kim, Jae-Ouk; Nguyen, Huan Huu; Kim, Dong Wook; Bahk, Young Yil; Yun, Cheol-Heui; Song, Man Ki

    2013-02-01

    Influenza viruses are respiratory pathogens that continue to pose a significantly high risk of morbidity and mortality of humans worldwide. Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies for minimizing damages by influenza outbreaks. In addition, rapid development and production of efficient vaccine with convenient administration is required in case of influenza pandemic. In this study, we generated recombinant influenza virus hemagglutinin protein 1 (sHA1) of 2009 pandemic influenza virus as a vaccine candidate using a well-established bacterial expression system and administered it into mice via sublingual (s.l.) route. We found that s.l. immunization with the recombinant sHA1 plus cholera toxin (CT) induced mucosal antibodies as well as systemic antibodies including neutralizing Abs and provided complete protection against infection with pandemic influenza virus A/CA/04/09 (H1N1) in mice. Indeed, the protection efficacy was comparable with that induced by intramuscular (i.m.) immunization route utilized as general administration route of influenza vaccine. These results suggest that s.l. vaccination with the recombinant non-glycosylated HA1 protein offers an alternative strategy to control influenza outbreaks including pandemics.

  15. Predictors of influenza in the adult population during seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic influenza periods.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gefenaite, G.; Tacken, M.; Kolthof, J.; Mulder, B.; Korevaar, J.C.; Stirbu-Wagner, I.; Bos, J.; Stolk, R.P.; Hak, E.

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to assess whether the characteristics of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases in the general population were similar during the seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza periods. We conducted a study using a general population database, which included demographic (sex, age) and clinical

  16. A metagenomic analysis of pandemic influenza A (2009 H1N1 infection in patients from North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander L Greninger

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Although metagenomics has been previously employed for pathogen discovery, its cost and complexity have prevented its use as a practical front-line diagnostic for unknown infectious diseases. Here we demonstrate the utility of two metagenomics-based strategies, a pan-viral microarray (Virochip and deep sequencing, for the identification and characterization of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. Using nasopharyngeal swabs collected during the earliest stages of the pandemic in Mexico, Canada, and the United States (n = 17, the Virochip was able to detect a novel virus most closely related to swine influenza viruses without a priori information. Deep sequencing yielded reads corresponding to 2009 H1N1 influenza in each sample (percentage of aligned sequences corresponding to 2009 H1N1 ranging from 0.0011% to 10.9%, with up to 97% coverage of the influenza genome in one sample. Detection of 2009 H1N1 by deep sequencing was possible even at titers near the limits of detection for specific RT-PCR, and the percentage of sequence reads was linearly correlated with virus titer. Deep sequencing also provided insights into the upper respiratory microbiota and host gene expression in response to 2009 H1N1 infection. An unbiased analysis combining sequence data from all 17 outbreak samples revealed that 90% of the 2009 H1N1 genome could be assembled de novo without the use of any reference sequence, including assembly of several near full-length genomic segments. These results indicate that a streamlined metagenomics detection strategy can potentially replace the multiple conventional diagnostic tests required to investigate an outbreak of a novel pathogen, and provide a blueprint for comprehensive diagnosis of unexplained acute illnesses or outbreaks in clinical and public health settings.

  17. Surfactant protein A genetic variants associate with severe respiratory insufficiency in pandemic influenza A virus infection

    OpenAIRE

    Herrera-Ramos, Estefanía; López-Rodríguez, Marta; Ruíz-Hernández, José Juan; Horcajada, Juan Pablo; Borderías, Luis; Lerma, Elisabeth; Blanquer, José; Pérez-González, María Carmen; García-Laorden, María Isabel; Florido, Yanira; Mas-Bosch, Virginia; Montero, Milagro; Ferrer, José María; Sorlí, Luisa; Vilaplana, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Inherited variability in host immune responses influences susceptibility and outcome of Influenza A virus (IAV) infection, but these factors remain largely unknown. Components of the innate immune response may be crucial in the first days of the infection. The collectins surfactant protein (SP)-A1, -A2, and -D and mannose-binding lectin (MBL) neutralize IAV infectivity, although only SP-A2 can establish an efficient neutralization of poorly glycosylated pandemic IAV strains. Meth...

  18. Broadly protective adenovirus-based multivalent vaccines against highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses for pandemic preparedness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai V Vemula

    Full Text Available Recurrent outbreaks of H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in domestic poultry accompanied by their occasional transmission to humans have highlighted the public health threat posed by these viruses. Newer vaccine approaches for pandemic preparedness against these viruses are needed, given the limitations of vaccines currently approved for H5N1 viruses in terms of their production timelines and the ability to induce protective immune responses in the absence of adjuvants. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of an adenovirus (AdV-based multivalent vaccine approach for pandemic preparedness against H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in a mouse model. Replication-defective AdV vectors expressing hemagglutinin (HA from different subtypes and nucleoprotein (NP from one subtype induced high levels of humoral and cellular immune responses and conferred protection against virus replication following challenge with H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza virus subtypes. Inclusion of HA from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in the vaccine formulation further broadened the vaccine coverage. Significantly high levels of HA stalk-specific antibodies were observed following immunization with the multivalent vaccine. Inclusion of NP into the multivalent HA vaccine formulation resulted in the induction of CD8 T cell responses. These results suggest that a multivalent vaccine strategy may provide reasonable protection in the event of a pandemic caused by H5, H7, or H9 avian influenza virus before a strain-matched vaccine can be produced.

  19. Broadly Protective Adenovirus-Based Multivalent Vaccines against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses for Pandemic Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vemula, Sai V.; Ahi, Yadvinder S.; Swaim, Anne-Marie; Katz, Jacqueline M.; Donis, Ruben; Sambhara, Suryaprakash; Mittal, Suresh K.

    2013-01-01

    Recurrent outbreaks of H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in domestic poultry accompanied by their occasional transmission to humans have highlighted the public health threat posed by these viruses. Newer vaccine approaches for pandemic preparedness against these viruses are needed, given the limitations of vaccines currently approved for H5N1 viruses in terms of their production timelines and the ability to induce protective immune responses in the absence of adjuvants. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of an adenovirus (AdV)-based multivalent vaccine approach for pandemic preparedness against H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza viruses in a mouse model. Replication-defective AdV vectors expressing hemagglutinin (HA) from different subtypes and nucleoprotein (NP) from one subtype induced high levels of humoral and cellular immune responses and conferred protection against virus replication following challenge with H5, H7 and H9 avian influenza virus subtypes. Inclusion of HA from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in the vaccine formulation further broadened the vaccine coverage. Significantly high levels of HA stalk-specific antibodies were observed following immunization with the multivalent vaccine. Inclusion of NP into the multivalent HA vaccine formulation resulted in the induction of CD8 T cell responses. These results suggest that a multivalent vaccine strategy may provide reasonable protection in the event of a pandemic caused by H5, H7, or H9 avian influenza virus before a strain-matched vaccine can be produced. PMID:23638099

  20. [Technical report on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Since its appearance in April 2009, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has been a subject of continued attention by national and international health authorities, as well as in the communication media. It has been six months since the first cases were published and the winter season has just ended in the southern hemisphere. Therefore, we now have quite extensive knowledge on the behaviour of the disease, its severity and the way it manifests itself in the child/adolescent population. The Spanish Paediatric Association commissioned its Evidence Based Medicine Working Group to prepare a technical report on the influenza pandemic. This report has been prepared following the highly structured working methodology proposed by the so-called Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). This methodology requires formulating clinical questions, carrying out a systematic review of the literature looking for research works that could answer them, the critical reading of these, evaluating their methodology quality and clinical importance and finally, establishing recommendations based on those studies considered valid and important as well as on good clinical judgement. The present report approaches all aspects of the influenza pandemic considered to be of interest: extent of the disease, clinical and laboratory diagnosis, physical prevention measures, vaccination and pharmacological treatment. The target population of the report are children and adolescents. Many of the considerations made may also be applied to other age groups. The primary objective of this report is to establish a group of recommendations which may serve as a generic framework for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the pandemic influenza in children and adolescents. The final targets of the report are paediatricians and also general/family doctors and nurses who look after children and adolescents. Copyright (c) 2009 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  1. Facing the threat of influenza pandemic - roles of and implications to general practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Albert

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza, compounded with seasonal influenza, posed a global challenge. Despite the announcement of post-pandemic period on 10 August 2010 by theWHO, H1N1 (2009 virus would continue to circulate as a seasonal virus for some years and national health authorities should remain vigilant due to unpredictable behaviour of the virus. Majority of the world population is living in countries with inadequate resources to purchase vaccines and stockpile antiviral drugs. Basic hygienic measures such as wearing face masks and the hygienic practice of hand washing could reduce the spread of the respiratory viruses. However, the imminent issue is translating these measures into day-to-day practice. The experience from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS in Hong Kong has shown that general practitioners (GPs were willing to discharge their duties despite risks of getting infected themselves. SARS event has highlighted the inadequate interface between primary and secondary care and valuable health care resources were thus inappropriately matched to community needs. There are various ways for GPs to contribute in combating the influenza pandemic. They are prompt in detecting and monitoring epidemics and mini-epidemics of viral illnesses in the community. They can empower and raise the health literacy of the community such as advocating personal hygiene and other precautious measures. GPs could also assist in the development of protocols for primary care management of patients with flu-like illnesses and conduct clinical audits on the standards of preventive and treatment measures. GPs with adequate liaison with public health agencies would facilitate early diagnosis of patients with influenza. In this article, we summarise the primary care actions for phases 4-6 of the pandemic. We shall discuss the novel roles of GPs as alternative source of health care for patients who would otherwise be cared for in the secondary care

  2. Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

    2015-05-07

    Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically

  3. The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 in two remote island nations: Iceland and New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Jennifer A; Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael G; Gottfredsson, Magnus

    2013-04-19

    Nations varied in their experience of, and response to, the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Island communities can provide unique opportunities to study the epidemiology of infectious diseases. We aimed to compare the epidemiology and public health response to this pandemic in two remote island nations, on opposite sides of the globe: Iceland and New Zealand (NZ). Historical accounts in both nations were reviewed, along with recent analysis of the pandemics impact and course. Marked similarities were noted in epidemic timing, failure of border control, shape of epidemic curves, and delayed use of public health interventions. However, amongst the exposed European populations, Iceland experienced a significantly higher mortality rate (830 vs 550 per 100,000) compared to NZ (rate ratio: 1.5, 95%CI: 1.4-1.6). There is evidence that some public health measures in specific areas of both nations resulted in lower mortality rates. In particular, Iceland's use of travel restrictions and ship quarantining, appeared to protect 36% of the population. The epidemiology of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic was fairly similar for the exposed European populations of Iceland and NZ. Nevertheless, major differences were the significantly higher overall mortality rate in Iceland and the success of Iceland's use of travel restrictions.

  4. Evolutionary pathways of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 in the UK.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Galiano

    Full Text Available The emergence of the influenza (H1N1 2009 virus provided a unique opportunity to study the evolution of a pandemic virus following its introduction into the human population. Virological and clinical surveillance in the UK were comprehensive during the first and second waves of the pandemic in 2009, with extensive laboratory confirmation of infection allowing a detailed sampling of representative circulating viruses. We sequenced the complete coding region of the haemagglutinin (HA segment of 685 H1N1 pandemic viruses selected without bias during two waves of pandemic in the UK (April-December 2009. Phylogenetic analysis showed that although temporal accumulation of amino acid changes was observed in the HA sequences, the overall diversity was less than that typically seen for seasonal influenza A H1N1 or H3N2. There was co-circulation of multiple variants as characterised by signature amino acid changes in the HA. A specific substitution (S203T became predominant both in UK and global isolates. No antigenic drift occurred during 2009 as viruses with greater than four-fold reduction in their haemagglutination inhibition (HI titre ("low reactors" were detected in a low proportion (3% and occurred sporadically. Although some limited antigenic divergence in viruses with four-fold reduction in HI titre might be related to the presence of 203T, additional studies are needed to test this hypothesis.

  5. Primary care utilization among patients with influenza during the 2009 pandemic. Does risk for severe influenza disease or prior contact with the general practitioner have any influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Kristian A; Hunskaar, Steinar; Sandvik, Hogne; Rortveit, Guri

    2015-02-01

    Little is known about how patients belonging to risk groups for influenza used the primary care system during the influenza pandemic. To investigate the use of general practice and out-of-hours (OOH) services in patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) according to (i) risk for severe influenza disease and (ii) the number of regular general practitioner (GP) visits before the pandemic. Observational study of all ILI patients during the 2009 pandemic. Data were recorded prospectively and collected after the pandemic. Patients at risk were identified during an 18-month period by diagnoses from GPs' billing claims. Associations between risk factors for severe influenza disease and utilization of primary care were analysed using bivariate and multivariate regression analyses. Similar analyses were used for the association between number of GP visits before the pandemic and the primary care utilization during the pandemic. ILI patients who were pregnant [odds ratio (OR) 1.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52, 1.89], had diabetes (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.49, 1.89) or chronic lung disease (OR 1.44; 95 CI 1.34, 1.55) had increased risk of attending OOH services compared with patients with no risk factor. ILI patients with at least one GP visit prior to the pandemic used OOH services less during the pandemic compared with those with no GP visit. An increased use of OOH services was found in ILI patients who were pregnant, with diabetes or with chronic lung disease. Having visited the GP before the pandemic was associated with less use of OOH services among ILI patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. The role of law in pandemic influenza preparedness in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, R

    2009-03-01

    The European Union (EU) is composed of 27 states with widely varying histories, economies, cultures, legal systems, medical systems and approaches to the balance between public good and private right. The individual nation states within Europe are signatories to the International Health Regulations 2005, but the capacity of states to undertake measures to control communicable disease is constrained by their obligations to comply with EU law. Some but not all states are signatories to the Schengen Agreement that provides further constraints on disease control measures. The porous nature of borders between EU states, and of their borders with other non-EU states, limits the extent to which states are able to protect their populations in a disease pandemic. This paper considers the role that public health laws can play in the control of pandemic disease in Europe.

  7. School illness absenteeism during 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic--South Dakota, 2009-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kightlinger, Lon; Horan, Vickie

    2013-05-01

    Schools are important amplification settings of influenza virus transmission. We demonstrated correlation of school absenteeism (due to any illness) with other influenza A (H1N1) activity surveillance data during the 2009 pandemic. We collected nonspecific illness student absenteeism data from August 17, 2009 through April 3, 2010 from 187 voluntarily participating South Dakota schools using weekly online surveys. Relative risks (RR) were calculated as the ratio of the probability of absenteeism during elevated weeks versus the probability of absenteeism during the baseline weeks (RR = 1.89). We used Pearson correlation to associate absenteeism with laboratory-confirmed influenza cases, influenza cases diagnosed by rapid tests, influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths reported in South Dakota during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic period. School-absenteeism data correlated strongly with data from these other influenza surveillance sources.

  8. From African health and influenza pandemics to disease in Russia: the medical history of K. David Patterson.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, G F

    1999-04-01

    This paper is a personal commentary on the contributions of noted medical historian K. David Patterson. The eightieth anniversary of the onset of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19 serves as a reminder of his contributions. His works on slavery and disease in Africa, influenza diffusion and the history of cholera and other diseases periodically appeared in Social Science and Medicine. With a publishing career that lasted from 1971 to 1996, his enduring contributions include revised estimates of mortality in Africa during the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919.

  9. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, Victor A

    2011-01-01

    Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6-2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3-1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected

  10. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V.; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, Victor A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. Results The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Conclusions Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school

  11. Social capital and health-protective behavior intentions in an influenza pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Chih Chuang

    Full Text Available Health-protective behaviors, such as receiving a vaccine, wearing a face mask, and washing hands frequently, can reduce the risk of contracting influenza. However, little is known about how social capital may influence health-protective behavior in the general population. This study examined whether each of the social capital dimensions (bonding, bridging, and linking contributed to the intention to adopt any of the health-protective behaviors in an influenza pandemic. The data of this study were from the 2014 Taiwan Social Change Survey. A stratified, three-stage probability proportional-to-size sampling from across the nation, was conducted to select adults aged 20 years and older (N = 1,745. Bonding social capital was measured by the frequency of neighborly contact and support. Bridging social capital was measured based on association membership. Linking social capital was measured according to general government trust and trust in the government's capacity to counter an influenza pandemic. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the multivariate associations between social capital and behavioral intention. The study results indicate that social capital may influence the response to influenza pandemic. Specifically, the intention to receive a vaccine and to wash hands more frequently were associated with the linking dimension and the bonding dimension of social capital, while the intention to wear a face mask was associated with all forms of social capital. The findings of this study suggest that government credibility and interpersonal networks may play a crucial role in health-protective behavior. This study provides new insights into how to improve the effectiveness of influenza prevention campaigns.

  12. Multiyear persistence of 2 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus lineages in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Martha I; Njouom, Richard; Viboud, Cecile; Niang, Mbayame N D; Kadjo, Hervé; Ampofo, William; Adebayo, Adedeji; Tarnagda, Zekiba; Miller, Mark A; Holmes, Edward C; Diop, Ousmane M

    2014-07-01

    Our understanding of the global ecology of influenza viruses is impeded by historically low levels of viral surveillance in Africa. Increased genetic sequencing of African A/H1N1 pandemic influenza viruses during 2009-2013 revealed multiyear persistence of 2 viral lineages within West Africa, raising questions about the roles of reduced air traffic and the asynchrony of seasonal influenza epidemics among West African countries in the evolution of independent lineages. The potential for novel influenza virus lineages to evolve within Africa warrants intensified influenza surveillance in Africa and other understudied areas.

  13. Potential demand for respirators and surgical masks during a hypothetical influenza pandemic in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carias, Cristina; Rainisch, Gabriel; Shankar, Manjunath; Adhikari, Bishwa B; Swerdlow, David L; Bower, William A; Pillai, Satish K; Meltzer, Martin I; Koonin, Lisa M

    2015-05-01

    To inform planning for an influenza pandemic, we estimated US demand for N95 filtering facepiece respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care. We used a spreadsheet-based model to estimate demand for 3 scenarios of respirator use: base case (usage approximately follows epidemic curve), intermediate demand (usage rises to epidemic peak and then remains constant), and maximum demand (all healthcare workers use respirators from pandemic onset). We assumed that in the base case scenario, up to 16 respirators would be required per day per intensive care unit patient and 8 per day per general ward patient. Outpatient healthcare workers and emergency services personnel would require 4 respirators per day. Patients would require 1.2 surgical masks per day. Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Prevalence of influenza-like illness and seasonal and pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination coverage among workers--United States, 2009-10 influenza season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckhaupt, Sara E; Calvert, Geoffrey M; Li, Jia; Sweeney, Marie; Santibanez, Tammy A

    2014-03-14

    During an influenza pandemic, information about the industry and occupation (I&O) of persons likely to be infected with influenza virus is important to guide key policy decisions regarding vaccine prioritization and exposure-control measures. Health-care personnel (HCP) might have increased opportunity for exposure to influenza infection, and they have been prioritized for influenza vaccination because of their own risk and the risk that infected HCP pose to patients. To identify other groups of workers that might be at increased risk for pandemic influenza infection, influenza-like illness (ILI) and vaccination coverage data from the 2009 National H1N1 Flu Survey (NHFS), which was conducted during October 2009 through June 2010, were analyzed. In a representative sample of 28,710 employed adults, 5.5% reported ILI symptoms in the month before the interview, and 23.7% received the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccine. Among employed adults, the highest prevalence of ILI was reported by those employed in the industry groups "Real estate and rental and leasing" (10.5%) and "Accommodation and food services" (10.2%), and in the occupation groups "Food preparation and serving related" (11.0%) and "Community and social services" (8.3%). Both seasonal influenza and pH1N1 vaccination coverage were relatively low in all of these groups of workers. Adults not in the labor force (i.e., homemakers, students, retired persons, and persons unable to work) had ILI prevalence and pH1N1 vaccination coverage similar to those found in all employed adults combined; in contrast, ILI prevalence was higher and pH1N1 vaccination coverage was lower among unemployed adults (i.e., those looking for work). These results suggest that adults employed in certain industries and occupations might have increased risk for influenza infection, and that the majority of these workers did not receive seasonal or pH1N1 influenza vaccine. Unemployed adults might also be considered a high risk group

  15. Policy perspectives on post pandemic influenza vaccination in Ghana and Malawi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evanson Z. Sambala

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the late 1990s, in the context of renewed concerns of an influenza pandemic, countries such as Ghana and Malawi established plans for the deployment of vaccines and vaccination strategies. A new pandemic was declared in mid-June 2009, and by April 2011, Ghana and Malawi vaccinated 10% of the population. We examine the public health policy perspectives on vaccination as a means to prevent the spread of infection under post pandemic conditions. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 46 policymakers (Ghana, n = 24; Malawi, n = 22, identified through snowballing sampling. Interviews were supplemented by field notes and the analysis of policy documents. Results The use of vaccination to interrupt the pandemic influenza was affected by delays in the procurement, delivery and administration of vaccines, suboptimal vaccination coverage, refusals to be vaccinated, and the politics behind vaccination strategies. More generally, rolling-out of vaccination after the transmission of the influenza virus had abated was influenced by policymakers’ own financial incentives, and government and foreign policy conditionality on vaccination. This led to confusion about targeting and coverage, with many policymakers justifying that the vaccination of 10% of the population would establish herd immunity and so reduce future risk. Ghana succeeded in vaccinating 2.3 million of the select groups (100% coverage, while Malawi, despite recourse to force, succeeded only in vaccinating 1.15 million (74% coverage of select groups. For most policymakers, vaccination coverage was perceived as successful, despite that vaccination delays and coverage would not have prevented infection when influenza was at its peak. Conclusions While the vaccination strategy was problematic and implemented too late to reduce the effects of the 2009 epidemic, policy makers supported the overall goal of pandemic influenza vaccination to interrupt infection

  16. Avian and Human Influenza Pandemic, How Prepared is the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    How much the perennial flight patterns of wild bird had on its spread is another question for consideration? The avian influenza virus does not readily cross the species barrier, though there is a potential for genetic re-assortment and cross infection. The main finding of this review suggest a lack of historic epidemiological ...

  17. Cloned defective interfering influenza virus protects ferrets from pandemic 2009 influenza A virus and allows protective immunity to be established.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel J Dimmock

    Full Text Available Influenza A viruses are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the human population, causing epidemics in the winter, and occasional worldwide pandemics. In addition there are periodic outbreaks in domestic poultry, horses, pigs, dogs, and cats. Infections of domestic birds can be fatal for the birds and their human contacts. Control in man operates through vaccines and antivirals, but both have their limitations. In the search for an alternative treatment we have focussed on defective interfering (DI influenza A virus. Such a DI virus is superficially indistinguishable from a normal virus but has a large deletion in one of the eight RNAs that make up the viral genome. Antiviral activity resides in the deleted RNA. We have cloned one such highly active DI RNA derived from segment 1 (244 DI virus and shown earlier that intranasal administration protects mice from lethal disease caused by a number of different influenza A viruses. A more cogent model of human influenza is the ferret. Here we found that intranasal treatment with a single dose of 2 or 0.2 µg 244 RNA delivered as A/PR/8/34 virus particles protected ferrets from disease caused by pandemic virus A/California/04/09 (A/Cal; H1N1. Specifically, 244 DI virus significantly reduced fever, weight loss, respiratory symptoms, and infectious load. 244 DI RNA, the active principle, was amplified in nasal washes following infection with A/Cal, consistent with its amelioration of clinical disease. Animals that were treated with 244 DI RNA cleared infectious and DI viruses without delay. Despite the attenuation of infection and disease by DI virus, ferrets formed high levels of A/Cal-specific serum haemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies and were solidly immune to rechallenge with A/Cal. Together with earlier data from mouse studies, we conclude that 244 DI virus is a highly effective antiviral with activity potentially against all influenza A subtypes.

  18. Core-6 fucose and the oligomerization of the 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhengliang L., E-mail: Leon.wu@bio-techne.com [Bio-Techne Inc., 614 McKinley Place NE, Minneapolis, MN 55413 (United States); Zhou, Hui [Gregg Hall, UNH Glycomics Center, University of New Hampshire (United States); Ethen, Cheryl M. [Bio-Techne Inc., 614 McKinley Place NE, Minneapolis, MN 55413 (United States); Reinhold, Vernon N., E-mail: Vernon.Reinhold@unh.edu [Gregg Hall, UNH Glycomics Center, University of New Hampshire (United States)

    2016-04-29

    The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus was responsible for one of the most deadly pandemics in human history. Yet to date, the structure component responsible for its virulence is still a mystery. In order to search for such a component, the neuraminidase (NA) antigen of the virus was expressed, which led to the discovery of an active form (tetramer) and an inactive form (dimer and monomer) of the protein due to different glycosylation. In this report, the N-glycans from both forms were released and characterized by mass spectrometry. It was found that the glycans from the active form had 26% core-6 fucosylated, while the glycans from the inactive form had 82% core-6 fucosylated. Even more surprisingly, the stalk region of the active form was almost completely devoid of core-6-linked fucose. These findings were further supported by the results obtained from in vitro incorporation of azido fucose and {sup 3}H-labeled fucose using core-6 fucosyltransferase, FUT8. In addition, the incorporation of fucose did not change the enzymatic activity of the active form, implying that core-6 fucose is not directly involved in the enzymatic activity. It is postulated that core-6 fucose prohibits the oligomerization and subsequent activation of the enzyme. - Graphical abstract: Proposed mechanism for how core-fucose prohibits the tetramerization of the 1918 pandemic viral neuraminidase. Only the cross section of the stalk region with two N-linked glycans are depicted for clarity. (A) Carbohydrate–carbohydrate interaction on non-fucosylated monomer allows tetramerization. (B) Core-fucosylation disrupts the interaction and prevents the tetramerization. - Highlights: • Expressed 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase has inactive and active forms. • The inactive form contains high level of core-6 fucose, while the active form lacks such modification. • Core fucose could interfere the oligomerization of the neuraminidase and thus its activation. • This discovery may explain

  19. Core-6 fucose and the oligomerization of the 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zhengliang L.; Zhou, Hui; Ethen, Cheryl M.; Reinhold, Vernon N.

    2016-01-01

    The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus was responsible for one of the most deadly pandemics in human history. Yet to date, the structure component responsible for its virulence is still a mystery. In order to search for such a component, the neuraminidase (NA) antigen of the virus was expressed, which led to the discovery of an active form (tetramer) and an inactive form (dimer and monomer) of the protein due to different glycosylation. In this report, the N-glycans from both forms were released and characterized by mass spectrometry. It was found that the glycans from the active form had 26% core-6 fucosylated, while the glycans from the inactive form had 82% core-6 fucosylated. Even more surprisingly, the stalk region of the active form was almost completely devoid of core-6-linked fucose. These findings were further supported by the results obtained from in vitro incorporation of azido fucose and 3 H-labeled fucose using core-6 fucosyltransferase, FUT8. In addition, the incorporation of fucose did not change the enzymatic activity of the active form, implying that core-6 fucose is not directly involved in the enzymatic activity. It is postulated that core-6 fucose prohibits the oligomerization and subsequent activation of the enzyme. - Graphical abstract: Proposed mechanism for how core-fucose prohibits the tetramerization of the 1918 pandemic viral neuraminidase. Only the cross section of the stalk region with two N-linked glycans are depicted for clarity. (A) Carbohydrate–carbohydrate interaction on non-fucosylated monomer allows tetramerization. (B) Core-fucosylation disrupts the interaction and prevents the tetramerization. - Highlights: • Expressed 1918 pandemic influenza viral neuraminidase has inactive and active forms. • The inactive form contains high level of core-6 fucose, while the active form lacks such modification. • Core fucose could interfere the oligomerization of the neuraminidase and thus its activation. • This discovery may explain why

  20. Estimates of the demand for mechanical ventilation in the United States during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Martin I; Patel, Anita; Ajao, Adebola; Nystrom, Scott V; Koonin, Lisa M

    2015-05-01

    An outbreak in China in April 2013 of human illnesses due to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus provided reason for US public health officials to revisit existing national pandemic response plans. We built a spreadsheet model to examine the potential demand for invasive mechanical ventilation (excluding "rescue therapy" ventilation). We considered scenarios of either 20% or 30% gross influenza clinical attack rate (CAR), with a "low severity" scenario with case fatality rates (CFR) of 0.05%-0.1%, or a "high severity" scenario (CFR: 0.25%-0.5%). We used rates-of-influenza-related illness to calculate the numbers of potential clinical cases, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units, and need for mechanical ventilation. We assumed 10 days ventilator use per ventilated patient, 13% of total ventilator demand will occur at peak, and a 33.7% weighted average mortality risk while on a ventilator. At peak, for a 20% CAR, low severity scenario, an additional 7000 to 11,000 ventilators will be needed, averting a pandemic total of 35,000 to 55,000 deaths. A 30% CAR, high severity scenario, will need approximately 35,000 to 60,500 additional ventilators, averting a pandemic total 178,000 to 308,000 deaths. Estimates of deaths averted may not be realized because successful ventilation also depends on sufficient numbers of suitably trained staff, needed supplies (eg, drugs, reliable oxygen sources, suction apparatus, circuits, and monitoring equipment) and timely ability to match access to ventilators with critically ill cases. There is a clear challenge to plan and prepare to meet demands for mechanical ventilators for a future severe pandemic. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  1. Influenza Stigma during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    OpenAIRE

    Earnshaw, Valerie A.; Quinn, Diane M.

    2013-01-01

    The current study examines the extent to which H1N1 was stigmatized at the height of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the U.S. and explores the role that H1N1 stigma played in people’s desire for physical distance from others with H1N1. H1N1 was the most stigmatized disease, with participants endorsing greater prejudice towards people with H1N1 than people with cancer or HIV/AIDS. Further, H1N1 stigma partially mediated the relationship between participants’ perceptions that H1N1 was threatening and...

  2. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelso, Joel K.; Halder, Nilimesh; Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in

  3. Technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing for pandemic influenza vaccine production in Romania: Preclinical evaluation of split virion inactivated H5N1 vaccine with adjuvant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavaru, Crina; Onu, Adrian; Lupulescu, Emilia; Tucureanu, Catalin; Rasid, Orhan; Vlase, Ene; Coman, Cristin; Caras, Iuliana; Ghiorghisor, Alina; Berbecila, Laurentiu; Tofan, Vlad; Bowen, Richard A; Marlenee, Nicole; Hartwig, Airn; Bielefeldt-Ohmann, Helle; Baldwin, Susan L; Van Hoeven, Neal; Vedvick, Thomas S; Huynh, Chuong; O'Hara, Michael K; Noah, Diana L; Fox, Christopher B

    2016-04-02

    Millions of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine doses containing oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant have been administered in order to enhance and broaden immune responses and to facilitate antigen sparing. Despite the enactment of a Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines and a multi-fold increase in production capabilities over the past 10 years, worldwide capacity for pandemic influenza vaccine production is still limited. In developing countries, where routine influenza vaccination is not fully established, additional measures are needed to ensure adequate supply of pandemic influenza vaccines without dependence on the shipment of aid from other, potentially impacted first-world countries. Adaptation of influenza vaccine and adjuvant technologies by developing country influenza vaccine manufacturers may enable antigen sparing and corresponding increases in global influenza vaccine coverage capacity. Following on previously described work involving the technology transfer of oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant manufacturing to a Romanian vaccine manufacturing institute, we herein describe the preclinical evaluation of inactivated split virion H5N1 influenza vaccine with emulsion adjuvant, including immunogenicity, protection from virus challenge, antigen sparing capacity, and safety. In parallel with the evaluation of the bioactivity of the tech-transferred adjuvant, we also describe the impact of concurrent antigen manufacturing optimization activities. Depending on the vaccine antigen source and manufacturing process, inclusion of adjuvant was shown to enhance and broaden functional antibody titers in mouse and rabbit models, promote protection from homologous virus challenge in ferrets, and facilitate antigen sparing. Besides scientific findings, the operational lessons learned are delineated in order to facilitate adaptation of adjuvant technologies by other developing country institutes to enhance global pandemic influenza preparedness.

  4. Patterns in influenza antiviral medication use before and during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Vaccine Safety Datalink Project, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Sharon K; Shay, David K; Yin, Ruihua; McCarthy, Natalie L; Baxter, Roger; Jackson, Michael L; Jacobsen, Steven J; Nordin, James D; Irving, Stephanie A; Naleway, Allison L; Glanz, Jason M; Lieu, Tracy A

    2012-11-01

    U.S. recommendations for using influenza antiviral medications changed in response to viral resistance (to reduce adamantane use) and during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (to focus on protecting high-risk patients). Little information is available on clinician adherence to these recommendations. We characterized population-based outpatient antiviral medication usage, including diagnosis and testing practices, before and during the pandemic. Eight medical care organizations in the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project provided data on influenza antiviral medication dispensings from January 2000 through June 2010. Dispensing rates were explored in relation to changes in recommendations and influenza diagnosis and laboratory testing frequencies. Factors associated with oseltamivir dispensings in pandemic versus pre-pandemic periods were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Antiviral use changed coincident with recommendations to avoid adamantanes in 2006, to use alternatives to oseltamivir in 2008, and to use oseltamivir during the pandemic. Of 38,019 oseltamivir dispensings during the pandemic, 31% were to patients not assigned an influenza diagnosis, and 97% were to patients not tested for influenza. Oseltamivir was more likely to be dispensed in pandemic versus pre-pandemic periods to patients change antiviral prescribing based on resistance and to focus on high-risk patients during the pandemic. Medications were commonly dispensed to patients without influenza diagnoses and tests, suggesting that antiviral dispensings may offer useful supplemental data for monitoring influenza incidence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Simplifying influenza vaccination during pandemics: sublingual priming and intramuscular boosting of immune responses with heterologous whole inactivated influenza vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugappan, Senthil; Patil, Harshad P; Frijlink, Henderik W; Huckriede, Anke; Hinrichs, Wouter L J

    2014-03-01

    The best approach to control the spread of influenza virus during a pandemic is vaccination. Yet, an appropriate vaccine is not available early in the pandemic since vaccine production is time consuming. For influenza strains with a high pandemic potential like H5N1, stockpiling of vaccines has been considered but is hampered by rapid antigenic drift of the virus. It has, however, been shown that immunization with a given H5N1 strain can prime the immune system for a later booster with a drifted variant. Here, we investigated whether whole inactivated virus (WIV) vaccine can be processed to tablets suitable for sublingual (s.l.) use and whether s.l. vaccine administration can prime the immune system for a later intramuscular (i.m.) boost with a heterologous vaccine. In vitro results demonstrate that freeze-drying and tableting of WIV did not affect the integrity of the viral proteins or the hemagglutinating properties of the viral particles. Immunization experiments revealed that s.l. priming with WIV (prepared from the H5N1 vaccine strain NIBRG-14) 4 weeks prior to i.m. booster immunization with the same virus strongly enhanced hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) titers against NIBRG-14 and the drifted variant NIBRG-23. Moreover, s.l. (and i.m.) immunization with NIBRG-14 also primed for a subsequent heterologous i.m. booster immunization with NIBRG-23 vaccine. In addition to HI serum antibodies, s.l. priming enhanced lung and nose IgA responses, while i.m. priming enhanced lung IgA but not nose IgA levels. Our results identify s.l. vaccination as a user-friendly method to prime for influenza-specific immune responses toward homologous and drifted variants.

  6. General practice and pandemic influenza: a framework for planning and comparison of plans in five countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahomed S Patel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although primary health care, and in particular, general practice will be at the frontline in the response to pandemic influenza, there are no frameworks to guide systematic planning for this task or to appraise available plans for their relevance to general practice. We aimed to develop a framework that will facilitate planning for general practice, and used it to appraise pandemic plans from Australia, England, USA, New Zealand and Canada. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We adapted the Haddon matrix to develop the framework, populating its cells through a multi-method study that incorporated the peer-reviewed and grey literature, interviews with general practitioners, practice nurses and senior decision-makers, and desktop simulation exercises. We used the framework to analyse 89 publicly-available jurisdictional plans at similar managerial levels in the five countries. The framework identifies four functional domains: clinical care for influenza and other needs, public health responsibilities, the internal environment and the macro-environment of general practice. No plan addressed all four domains. Most plans either ignored or were sketchy about non-influenza clinical needs, and about the contribution of general practice to public health beyond surveillance. Collaborations between general practices were addressed in few plans, and inter-relationships with the broader health system, even less frequently. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to provide a framework to guide general practice planning for pandemic influenza. The framework helped identify critical shortcomings in available plans. Engaging general practice effectively in planning is challenging, particularly where governance structures for primary health care are weak. We identify implications for practice and for research.

  7. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pete Riley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0 and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

  8. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Linker, Jon A; Cost, Angelia A; Sanchez, Jose L; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P; Riley, Steven

    2015-09-01

    The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

  9. The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martirosyan, L.; Paget, W.J.; Jorgensen, P.; Brown, C.S.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Pereyaslov, D.; Mott, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical

  10. The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martirosyan, L.; Paget, W.J.; Jorgensen, P.; Brown, C.S.; Meerhoff, T.J.; Pereyaslov, D.; Mott, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical

  11. Oseltamivir-resistant pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 influenza viruses detected through enhanced surveillance in the Netherlands, 2009-2010.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, F.J.A.; Jonges, M.; Abbink, F.; Ang, W.; Beek, J.; Beersma, M.; Bloembergen, P.; Boucher, C.; Claas, E.; Donker, G; Gageldonk-Lafeber, R. van; Isken, L.; Jong, A. de; Kroes, A.; Leenders, S.; Lubben, M. van der; Mascini, E.; Niesters, B.; Oosterheert, J.J.; Osterhaus, A.; Riesmeijer, R.; Riezebos-Brilman, A.; Schutten, M.; Sebens, F.; Stelma, F.F.; Swaan, C.; Timen, A.; Veen, A.; Vries, E. de; Wierik, M. te; Koopmans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced surveillance of infections due to the pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus, which included monitoring for antiviral resistance, was carried out in the Netherlands from late April 2009 through late May 2010. More than 1100 instances of infection with the pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus from

  12. Evaluation of the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Candidate Pandemic Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (pLAIV) Against Influenza A(H7N9).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobhanie, Mahdee; Matsuoka, Yumiko; Jegaskanda, Sinthujan; Fitzgerald, Theresa; Mallory, Raburn; Chen, Zhongying; Luke, Catherine; Treanor, John; Subbarao, Kanta

    2016-03-15

    We evaluated a candidate A/Anhui/2013(H7N9) pandemic live attenuated influenza vaccine (pLAIV) in healthy adults, and assessed the ability of 1 or 2 doses to induce immune memory. Healthy subjects in 2 age groups (18-49 years and 50-70 years) with undetectable hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) antibody to H7N9 were enrolled. Younger subjects received either 1 or 2 intranasal doses of 10(7.0) fluorescent focus units of A/Anhui/1/2013 pLAIV, while older subjects received a single dose. All subjects received a single 30-µg dose of unadjuvanted, antigenically matched A/Shanghai2/2013(H7N9) pandemic inactivated influenza vaccine (pIIV) 12 weeks after their first dose of pLAIV. Both vaccines were well tolerated. Serum HAI antibody responses were detected in 0 of 32 younger subjects and 1 of 17 older subjects after 1 dose of pLAIV and in 2 of 16 younger subjects after a second dose. Strong serum antibody responses were detected after a single subsequent dose of pIIV that was broadly reactive against H7 influenza viruses. An A(H7N9) pLAIV candidate was safe in both age groups. Priming with pLAIV resulted in responses to subsequent pIIV that exceeded those seen in naive subjects in previous reports. The A(H7N9) pLAIV induces strong immune memory that can be demonstrated by exposure to subsequent antigenic challenge. NCT01995695 and NCT02274545. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Knowledge and attitudes of university students toward pandemic influenza: a cross-sectional study from Turkey

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    Hayran Osman

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza pandemic, higher education institutions with large populations of young adults can become serious outbreak centers. Since outbreak management is essential to disease control, we aimed to examine university students' knowledge of and attitudes toward the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and vaccination and other preventive measures. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 402 first year university students at Yeditepe University in Istanbul, Turkey between 1st and 30th of November 2009. Data regarding socio-demographic characteristics of the students, perceptions, level of knowledge and attitudes toward influenza pandemic and prevention measures were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire was distributed by the students affiliated with SANITAS, a university club of students in health related sciences. Results 25.1% (101/402 of the study group perceived their personal risk of influenza as "high", while 40.5% (163/402 perceived it as "moderate", 20.6% (107/402 viewed it as "low" and 7.7% (31/402 indicated that it was "unknown". The risk perception of males was significantly lower than that of females (p = 0.004 and the risk perception among the students of health sciences was significantly lower than that of students of other sciences (p = 0.037. Within the study group, 72.1% (290/402 indicated that their main information source regarding H1N1 was the mass media. Health sciences students tended to rely more on the internet as an information source than other students (p = 0.015. The vast majority (92.8%; 373/402 of those interviewed indicated that they would not be vaccinated. The major concerns regarding vaccination had to do with the safety and side effects of the vaccine. Most of the participants (343/402, 85.3% were carrying out one of prevention measures and the vast majority believed that hand washing, face mask and quarantina were effective measures for

  14. Planning for the next influenza pandemic: using the science and art of logistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cupp, O Shawn; Predmore, Brad G

    2011-01-01

    The complexities and challenges for healthcare providers and their efforts to provide fundamental basic items to meet the logistical demands of an influenza pandemic are discussed in this article. The supply chain, planning, and alternatives for inevitable shortages are some of the considerations associated with this emergency mass critical care situation. The planning process and support for such events are discussed in detail with several recommendations obtained from the literature and the experience from recent mass casualty incidents (MCIs). The first step in this planning process is the development of specific triage requirements during an influenza pandemic. The second step is identification of logistical resources required during such a pandemic, which are then analyzed within the proposed logistics science and art model for planning purposes. Resources highlighted within the model include allocation and use of work force, bed space, intensive care unit assets, ventilators, personal protective equipment, and oxygen. The third step is using the model to discuss in detail possible workarounds, suitable substitutes, and resource allocation. An examination is also made of the ethics surrounding palliative care within the construction of an MCI and the factors that will inevitably determine rationing and prioritizing of these critical assets to palliative care patients.

  15. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adams Elisabeth J

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

  16. Development of a Quick Look Pandemic Influenza Modeling and Visualization Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Ebert, David S.; Corley, Courtney D.; Maciejewski, Ross; Muller, George; Taylor, Aimee E.

    2010-05-30

    Federal, State, and local decision makers and public health officials must prepare and exercise complex plans to contend with a variety of possible mass casualty events, such as pandemic influenza. Through the provision of quick look tools (QLTs) focused on mass casualty events, such planning can be done with higher accuracy and more realism through the combination of interactive simulation and visualization in these tools. If an event happens, the QLTs can then be employed to rapidly assess and execute alternative mitigation strategies, and thereby minimize casualties. This can be achieved by conducting numerous 'what-if' assessments prior to any event in order to assess potential health impacts (e.g., number of sick individuals), required community resources (e.g., vaccinations and hospital beds), and optimal mitigative decision strategies (e.g., school closures) during the course of a pandemic. In this presentation, we overview and demonstrate a pandemic influenza QLT, discuss some of the modeling methods and construct and visual analytic components and interface, and outline additional development concepts. These include the incorporation of a user selectable infectious disease palette, simultaneous visualization of decision alternatives, additional resource elements associated with emergency response (e.g., first responders and medical professionals), and provisions for other potential disaster events.

  17. Structural Characterization of the Hemagglutinin Receptor Specificity from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Rui; McBride, Ryan; Nycholat, Corwin M.; Paulson, James C.; Wilson, Ian A. (Scripps)

    2012-02-13

    Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) is the viral envelope protein that mediates viral attachment to host cells and elicits membrane fusion. The HA receptor-binding specificity is a key determinant for the host range and transmissibility of influenza viruses. In human pandemics of the 20th century, the HA normally has acquired specificity for human-like receptors before widespread infection. Crystal structures of the H1 HA from the 2009 human pandemic (A/California/04/2009 [CA04]) in complex with human and avian receptor analogs reveal conserved recognition of the terminal sialic acid of the glycan ligands. However, favorable interactions beyond the sialic acid are found only for {alpha}2-6-linked glycans and are mediated by Asp190 and Asp225, which hydrogen bond with Gal-2 and GlcNAc-3. For {alpha}2-3-linked glycan receptors, no specific interactions beyond the terminal sialic acid are observed. Our structural and glycan microarray analyses, in the context of other high-resolution HA structures with {alpha}2-6- and {alpha}2-3-linked glycans, now elucidate the structural basis of receptor-binding specificity for H1 HAs in human and avian viruses and provide a structural explanation for the preference for {alpha}2-6 siaylated glycan receptors for the 2009 pandemic swine flu virus.

  18. Synthetic generation of influenza vaccine viruses for rapid response to pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormitzer, Philip R; Suphaphiphat, Pirada; Gibson, Daniel G; Wentworth, David E; Stockwell, Timothy B; Algire, Mikkel A; Alperovich, Nina; Barro, Mario; Brown, David M; Craig, Stewart; Dattilo, Brian M; Denisova, Evgeniya A; De Souza, Ivna; Eickmann, Markus; Dugan, Vivien G; Ferrari, Annette; Gomila, Raul C; Han, Liqun; Judge, Casey; Mane, Sarthak; Matrosovich, Mikhail; Merryman, Chuck; Palladino, Giuseppe; Palmer, Gene A; Spencer, Terika; Strecker, Thomas; Trusheim, Heidi; Uhlendorff, Jennifer; Wen, Yingxia; Yee, Anthony C; Zaveri, Jayshree; Zhou, Bin; Becker, Stephan; Donabedian, Armen; Mason, Peter W; Glass, John I; Rappuoli, Rino; Venter, J Craig

    2013-05-15

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, vaccines for the virus became available in large quantities only after human infections peaked. To accelerate vaccine availability for future pandemics, we developed a synthetic approach that very rapidly generated vaccine viruses from sequence data. Beginning with hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences, we combined an enzymatic, cell-free gene assembly technique with enzymatic error correction to allow rapid, accurate gene synthesis. We then used these synthetic HA and NA genes to transfect Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells that were qualified for vaccine manufacture with viral RNA expression constructs encoding HA and NA and plasmid DNAs encoding viral backbone genes. Viruses for use in vaccines were rescued from these MDCK cells. We performed this rescue with improved vaccine virus backbones, increasing the yield of the essential vaccine antigen, HA. Generation of synthetic vaccine seeds, together with more efficient vaccine release assays, would accelerate responses to influenza pandemics through a system of instantaneous electronic data exchange followed by real-time, geographically dispersed vaccine production.

  19. Comparison of age-specific hospitalization during pandemic and seasonal influenza periods from 2009 to 2012 in Taiwan: a nationwide population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Shew-Meei; Tsai, Ching-Fang; Yang, Hsin-Yi; Pai, Hui-Wen; Chen, Solomon Chih-Cheng

    2016-02-24

    Determining the age-specific hospitalization burden associated with seasonal influenza and the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic is important for the development of effective vaccine strategies and clinical management. The aim of this study was to investigate age-specific differences in hospitalization rates during the pandemic and seasonal periods. Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), we identified hospitalized patients with a principle discharge diagnosis of influenza-related infection (ICD-9-CM 487) between 2009 and 2012. Based on the time distribution of influenza-related hospitalizations and previously reported epidemic periods, the first and second waves of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic (p1 is known as 2009.07-2010.01, and p2 is known as 2010.12-2011.03) and three seasonal periods (s1 is known as 2010.03-2010.11, s2 is known as 2011.10-2012.03, and s3 is known as 2012.04-2012.10) were found. During these five periods, children younger than 7 years of age consistently had the highest hospitalization rate of the studied age groups. In individuals younger than 50 years of age, the seasonal periods were associated with a significantly lower risk of hospitalization than that of p1 (Relative risk (RR) range = 0.18-0.85); however, they had a significantly higher hospitalization risk for adults over 50 years of age (RR = 1.51-3.22). Individuals over 50 years of age also had a higher intensive care unit admission rate and case fatality ratio than individuals under than 50 years of age during the seasonal periods and especially during the pandemic periods. In both pandemic and seasonal periods, the highest hospitalization rate was observed for children younger than 7 years of age. Adults over 50 years of age had a higher hospitalization risk during the seasonal periods and a higher clinical severity during the pandemic periods. Those results emphasize that the importance of influenza-related prevention strategies in the younger and older age groups

  20. Mortality attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza, Australia, 2003 to 2009, using a novel time series smoothing approach.

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    David J Muscatello

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Official statistics under-estimate influenza deaths. Time series methods allow the estimation of influenza-attributable mortality. The methods often model background, non-influenza mortality using a cyclic, harmonic regression model based on the Serfling approach. This approach assumes that the seasonal pattern of non-influenza mortality is the same each year, which may not always be accurate. AIM: To estimate Australian seasonal and pandemic influenza-attributable mortality from 2003 to 2009, and to assess a more flexible influenza mortality estimation approach. METHODS: We used a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM to replace the conventional seasonal harmonic terms with a smoothing spline of time ('spline model' to estimate influenza-attributable respiratory, respiratory and circulatory, and all-cause mortality in persons aged <65 and ≥ 65 years. Influenza A(H1N1pdm09, seasonal influenza A and B virus laboratory detection time series were used as independent variables. Model fit and estimates were compared with those of a harmonic model. RESULTS: Compared with the harmonic model, the spline model improved model fit by up to 20%. In <65 year-olds, the estimated respiratory mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A(H1N1pdm09 was 0.5 (95% confidence interval (CI, 0.3, 0.7 per 100,000; similar to that of the years with the highest seasonal influenza A mortality, 2003 and 2007 (A/H3N2 years. In ≥ 65 year-olds, the highest annual seasonal influenza A mortality estimate was 25.8 (95% CI 22.2, 29.5 per 100,000 in 2003, five-fold higher than the non-statistically significant 2009 pandemic influenza estimate in that age group. Seasonal influenza B mortality estimates were negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The spline model achieved a better model fit. The study provides additional evidence that seasonal influenza, particularly A/H3N2, remains an important cause of mortality in Australia and that the epidemic of pandemic influenza

  1. Long term immune responses to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 infection in solid organ transplant recipients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyah Baluch

    Full Text Available In solid organ transplant (SOT recipients it is unknown if natural infection with influenza confers protection from re-infection with the same strain during the next influenza season. The purpose of this study was to determine if infection with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (pH1N1 resulted in a long-term immunologic response. Transplant recipients with microbiologically proven pH1N1 infection in 2009/2010 underwent humoral and cell-mediated immunity (CMI testing for pH1N1 just prior to the next influenza season. Concurrent testing for A/Brisbane/59/2007 was done to rule-out cross-reacting antibody. We enrolled 22 adult transplant patients after pH1N1 infection. Follow up testing was done at a median of 7.4 months (range 5.8-15.4 after infection. After excluding those with cross-reactive antibody, 7/19 (36.8% patients were seroprotected. Detectable pH1N1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ interferon-γ producing T-cells were found in 11/22 (50% and 8/22 (36.4% patients respectively. Humoral immunity had a significant correlation with a CD4 response. This is the first study in transplant patients to evaluate long-term humoral and cellular response after natural influenza infection. We show that a substantial proportion of SOT recipients with previous pH1N1 infection lack long-term humoral and cellular immune responses to pH1N1. These patients most likely are at risk for re-infection.

  2. A cloud-based simulation architecture for pandemic influenza simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Henrik; Raciti, Massimiliano; Basile, Maurizio; Cunsolo, Alessandro; Fröberg, Anders; Leifler, Ola; Ekberg, Joakim; Timpka, Toomas

    2011-01-01

    High-fidelity simulations of pandemic outbreaks are resource consuming. Cluster-based solutions have been suggested for executing such complex computations. We present a cloud-based simulation architecture that utilizes computing resources both locally available and dynamically rented online. The approach uses the Condor framework for job distribution and management of the Amazon Elastic Computing Cloud (EC2) as well as local resources. The architecture has a web-based user interface that allows users to monitor and control simulation execution. In a benchmark test, the best cost-adjusted performance was recorded for the EC2 H-CPU Medium instance, while a field trial showed that the job configuration had significant influence on the execution time and that the network capacity of the master node could become a bottleneck. We conclude that it is possible to develop a scalable simulation environment that uses cloud-based solutions, while providing an easy-to-use graphical user interface.

  3. Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel I. Watson

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The stockpiling of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza is a significant public health policy decision that must be made despite a lack of conclusive evidence from randomised controlled trials regarding the effectiveness of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence. Methods: A decision model for stockpiling was designed. Data on previous pandemic influenza epidemiology was combined with data on the effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality obtained from a recent individual participant meta-analysis using observational data. Evidence synthesis techniques and a bias modelling method for observational data were used to incorporate the evidence into the model. The stockpiling decision was modelled for adults (≥16 years old and the United Kingdom was used as an example. The main outcome was the expected net benefits of stockpiling in monetary terms. Health benefits were estimated from deaths averted through stockpiling. Results: After adjusting for biases in the estimated effectiveness of NAIs, the expected net benefit of stockpiling in the baseline analysis was £444 million, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY ($31,000/QALY. The decision would therefore be to stockpile NAIs. There was a greater probability that the stockpile would not be utilised than utilised. However, the rare but catastrophic losses from a severe pandemic justified the decision to stockpile. Conclusions: Taking into account the available epidemiological data and evidence of effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality, including potential biases, a decision maker should stockpile anti-influenza medication in keeping with the postulated decision rule.

  4. Hospital triage system for adult patients using an influenza-like illness scoring system during the 2009 pandemic--Mexico.

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    Eduardo Rodriguez-Noriega

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 virus emerged during 2009. To help clinicians triage adults with acute respiratory illness, a scoring system for influenza-like illness (ILI was implemented at Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico.A medical history, laboratory and radiology results were collected on emergency room (ER patients with acute respiratory illness to calculate an ILI-score. Patients were evaluated for admission by their ILI-score and clinicians' assessment of risk for developing complications. Nasal and throat swabs were collected from intermediate and high-risk patients for influenza testing by RT-PCR. The disposition and ILI-score of those oseltamivir-treated versus untreated, clinical characteristics of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 patients versus test-negative patients were compared by Pearson's Chi(2, Fisher's Exact, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.Of 1840 ER patients, 230 were initially hospitalized (mean ILI-score = 15, and the rest were discharged, including 286 ambulatory patients given oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 11, and 1324 untreated (median ILI-score = 5. Fourteen (1% untreated patients returned, and 3 were hospitalized on oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 19. Of 371 patients tested by RT-PCR, 104 (28% had pandemic influenza and 42 (11% had seasonal influenza A detected. Twenty (91% of 22 imaged hospitalized pandemic influenza patients had bilateral infiltrates compared to 23 (38% of 61 imaged hospital test-negative patients (p<0.001. One patient with confirmed pandemic influenza presented 6 days after symptom onset, required mechanical ventilation, and died.The triaging system that used an ILI-score complimented clinicians' judgment of who needed oseltamivir and inpatient care and helped hospital staff manage a surge in demand for services.

  5. ASID (HICSIG) position statement: infection control guidelines for patients with influenza-like illnesses, including pandemic (H1N1) influenza 2009, in Australian health care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Rhonda L; Cheng, Allen C; Marshall, Caroline L; Ferguson, John K

    2009-10-19

    Standard and Droplet Precautions are considered adequate to control the transmission of influenza in most health care situations. Vaccination of health care staff, carers and vulnerable patients against seasonal and, eventually, pandemic influenza strains is an essential protective strategy. Management principles include: performance of hand hygiene before and after every patient contact or contact with the patient environment, in accord with the national 5 Moments for Hand Hygiene Standard; disinfection of the patient environment; early identification and isolation of patients with suspected or proven influenza; adoption of a greater minimum distance of patient separation (2 metres) than previously recommended; use of a surgical mask and eye protection for personal protection on entry to infectious areas or within 2 metres of an infectious patient; contact tracing for patient and health care staff and restriction of prophylactic antivirals mainly to those at high risk of severe disease; in high aerosol-risk settings, use of particulate mask, eye protection, impervious long-sleeved gown, and gloves donned in that sequence and removed in reverse sequence, avoiding self-contamination; exclusion of symptomatic staff from the workplace until criteria for non-infectious status are met; reserving negative-pressure ventilation rooms (if available) for intensive care patients, especially those receiving non-invasive ventilation; ensuring that infectious postpartum women wear surgical masks when caring for their newborn infants and practise strict hand hygiene; and implementation of special arrangements for potentially infected newborns who require nursery or intensive care.

  6. Live attenuated seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine in school-age children: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klick, Brendan; Durrani, Sunita; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Ip, Dennis K M; Chou, Erica S K; Kwok, Henry K H; Ng, Sophia; Chiu, Susan S; Peiris, J S Malik; Leung, Gabriel M; Cowling, Benjamin J

    2013-04-08

    The novel influenza A(H1N1pdm09) virus emerged in North America in early 2009 and rapidly spread worldwide. In this study we report the efficacy of the live attenuated monovalent H1N1pdm09 vaccine and 2009-10 seasonal influenza vaccine in a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. We enrolled 703 children aged 7-11. Each child was randomly allocated in the ratio 3:2 to receive one dose of live attenuated monovalent H1N1pdm09 vaccine or saline placebo between November 2009 and January 2010, followed after 3-10 weeks by independent random allocation to one dose of live attenuated trivalent 2009-10 seasonal influenza vaccine or saline placebo in the same ratio. Children were followed up through September 2010 with biweekly telephone calls and symptom diaries. Seasonal and pandemic influenza infections were confirmed by virologic testing of nose and throat swabs collected during acute respiratory illnesses. Overall, 30 children had confirmed influenza including 3 (0.43%) H1N1pdm09, 10 (1.4%) seasonal A(H3N2), and 17 (2.4%) influenza B. There were no significant differences in incidence rates of H1N1pdm09 or A(H3N2) between the four study arms, but receipt of the seasonal influenza vaccine was associated with a significant reduction in risk of influenza B (pVaccine efficacy against confirmed H1N1pdm09 infection associated with receipt of the monovalent H1N1pdm09 vaccine was 65% (95% confidence interval, CI: -281%, 97%). Vaccine efficacies against confirmed seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and B infection associated with receipt of the seasonal influenza vaccine were 31% (95% CI: -138%, 80%) and 96% (95% CI: 67%, 99%) respectively. Vaccine efficacy was consistent with other studies of the monovalent H1N1pdm09 vaccine and seasonal influenza vaccines. Our study was underpowered to provide precise estimates of vaccine efficacy due to low incidence of influenza A viruses during the study period. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Influenza Virus Research and Eu Export Regulations: Publication, Proliferation, and Pandemic Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enemark, Christian

    2017-05-01

    An influenza pandemic would be a global health emergency, and laboratory-based research on influenza viruses is an important component of worldwide efforts to prevent and prepare for this. There are concerns, however, that publishing the findings of such research might sometimes increase the risk of a pandemic caused by a laboratory accident or the deliberate release of a deadly virus. This article addresses the challenge of governing scientific information sharing, with regard to public health benefits and risks, from an export-control perspective. The discussion focuses on research findings produced in 2011 by a team of influenza virologists in the Netherlands, and on the Dutch Government's unprecedented decision to regard the intended publication of these findings as being subject to European Union regulations on the export of 'dual-use' items. I argue that, when a government is uncertain about whether the benefits of publishing particular research findings in a scientific journal outweigh the risks, a process of selectively disseminating those findings should be available as an alternative to official censorship. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

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    Nelson Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918. Methods Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution. Results Basic reproduction number (R0 values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population. Conclusion These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.

  9. Influenza A virus transmission via respiratory aerosols or droplets as it relates to pandemic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Mathilde; Fouchier, Ron A.M.

    2015-01-01

    Many respiratory viruses of humans originate from animals. For instance, there are now eight paramyxoviruses, four coronaviruses and four orthomxoviruses that cause recurrent epidemics in humans but were once confined to other hosts. In the last decade, several members of the same virus families have jumped the species barrier from animals to humans. Fortunately, these viruses have not become established in humans, because they lacked the ability of sustained transmission between humans. However, these outbreaks highlighted the lack of understanding of what makes a virus transmissible. In part triggered by the relatively high frequency of occurrence of influenza A virus zoonoses and pandemics, the influenza research community has started to investigate the viral genetic and biological traits that drive virus transmission via aerosols or respiratory droplets between mammals. Here we summarize recent discoveries on the genetic and phenotypic traits required for airborne transmission of zoonotic influenza viruses of subtypes H5, H7 and H9 and pandemic viruses of subtypes H1, H2 and H3. Increased understanding of the determinants and mechanisms of respiratory virus transmission is not only key from a basic scientific perspective, but may also aid in assessing the risks posed by zoonotic viruses to human health, and preparedness for such risks. PMID:26385895

  10. The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Hawker, Jeremy; Olowokure, Babatunde; Vynnycky, Emilia

    2014-01-01

    School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number 90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

  11. The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Jackson

    Full Text Available School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies.To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies.We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns.School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number 90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions. This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns.Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

  12. Determinants of Non-Vaccination against Pandemic 2009 H1N1 Influenza in Pregnant Women: A Prospective Cohort Study

    OpenAIRE

    Freund, Romain; Le Ray, Camille; Charlier, Caroline; Avenell, Carolyn; Truster, Van; Tréluyer, Jean-Marc; Skalli, Dounia; Ville, Yves; Goffinet, François; Launay, Odile

    2011-01-01

    International audience; BACKGROUND: In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 8...

  13. Examining the knowledge, attitudes and practices of domestic and international university students towards seasonal and pandemic influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seale Holly

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prior to the availability of the specific pandemic vaccine, strategies to mitigate the impact of the disease typically involved antiviral treatment and “non-pharmaceutical” community interventions. However, compliance with these strategies is linked to risk perceptions, perceived severity and perceived effectiveness of the strategies. In 2010, we undertook a study to examine the knowledge, attitudes, risk perceptions, practices and barriers towards influenza and infection control strategies amongst domestic and international university students. Methods A study using qualitative methods that incorporated 20 semi-structured interviews was undertaken with domestic and international undergraduate and postgraduate university students based at one university in Sydney, Australia. Participants were invited to discuss their perceptions of influenza (seasonal vs. pandemic in terms of perceived severity and impact, and attitudes towards infection control measures including hand-washing and the use of social distancing, isolation or cough etiquette. Results While participants were generally knowledgeable about influenza transmission, they were unable to accurately define what ‘pandemic influenza’ meant. While avian flu or SARS were mistaken as examples of past pandemics, almost all participants were able to associate the recent “swine flu” situation as an example of a pandemic event. Not surprisingly, it was uncommon for participants to identify university students as being at risk of catching pandemic influenza. Amongst those interviewed, it was felt that ‘students’ were capable of fighting off any illness. The participant’s nominated hand washing as the most feasible and acceptable compared with social distancing and mask use. Conclusions Given the high levels of interaction that occurs in a university setting, it is really important that students are informed about disease transmission and about risk of infection

  14. Subsisting H1N1 influenza memory responses are insufficient to protect from pandemic H1N1 influenza challenge in C57BL/6 mice

    OpenAIRE

    Sage, Leo K.; Fox, Julie M.; Tompkins, Stephen M.; Tripp, Ralph A.

    2013-01-01

    The 2009 swine-origin pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza virus transmitted and caused disease in many individuals immune to pre-2009 H1N1 influenza virus. Whilst extensive studies on antibody-mediated pH1N1 cross-reactivity have been described, few studies have focused on influenza-specific memory T-cells. To address this, the immune response in pre-2009 H1N1 influenza-immune mice was evaluated after pH1N1 challenge and disease pathogenesis was determined. The results show that despite homology ...

  15. The Impact of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 on Health-Related Quality of Life: A Prospective Population-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hoek, Albert Jan; Underwood, Anthony; Jit, Mark; Miller, Elizabeth; Edmunds, W. John

    2011-01-01

    Background While the H1N1v influenza pandemic in 2009 was clinically mild, with a low case-fatality rate, the overall disease burden measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) lost has not been estimated. Such a measure would allow comparison with other diseases and assessment of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Methods and Findings Cases of H1N1v confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR negative cases with similar influenza-like illness (ILI controls) in 7 regions of England were sent two questionnaires, one within a week of symptom onset and one two weeks later, requesting information on duration of illness, work loss and antiviral use together with EQ-5D questionnaires. Results were compared with those for seasonal influenza from a systematic literature review. A total QALY loss for the 2009 pandemic in England was calculated based on the estimated total clinical cases and reported deaths. A total of 655 questionnaires were sent and 296 (45%) returned. Symptoms and average illness duration were similar between confirmed cases and ILI controls (8.8 days and 8.7 days respectively). Days off work were greater for cases than ILI controls (7.3 and 4.9 days respectively, p = 0.003). The quality-adjusted life days lost was 2.92 for confirmed cases and 2.74 for ILI controls, with a reduction in QALY loss after prompt use of antivirals in confirmed cases. The overall QALY loss in the pandemic was estimated at 28,126 QALYs (22,267 discounted) of which 40% was due to deaths (24% with discounting). Conclusion Given the global public health significance of influenza, it is remarkable that no previous prospective study of the QALY loss of influenza using standardised and well validated methods has been performed. Although the QALY loss was minor for individual patients, the estimated total burden of influenza over the pandemic was substantial when compared to other infectious diseases. PMID:21399678

  16. Safety of the Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Vaccine among Pregnant U.S. Military Women and Their Newborns

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    10.1097/AOG.0b013e318280d64e LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II In April 2009, a novel strain of influenza A virus , nowknown as pandemic influenza H1N1 , emerged in the...comparison group included active-duty military women who received the 2008–2009 seasonal influenza vaccine (A/Brisbane/59/2007 [ H1N1 ]-like virus , an A...nancy with initial diagnosis at least 1 day after pan- demic H1N1 or seasonal influenza immunization. Additional requirements included an inpatient

  17. Bovine and human-derived passive immunization could help slow a future avian influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alisky, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    An epidemic of human transmitted avian influenza could have casualties on a scale seen in the great Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918. This paper proposes that should such occur before effective vaccines and antiviral drugs are available, the outbreak could be significantly slowed by consumption of raw milk produced by herds of pathogen-free lactating cows intranasally inoculated with heat-sterilized sputa pooled from avian influenza patients, supplemented by parenteral serum immune globulin from the same cows. Efficiency of bovine antibody production could be enhanced using cholera toxin subunit b, and milk production could be rapidly accelerated using recombinant bovine somatotropin hormone. In this way, it would be possible to quickly create and distribute large quantities of milk-based and serum-based passive immune globulin active against the strains of avian influenza present in a particular geographic area and gain time for production of human convalescent plasma and other public health measures. This novel approach might also have utility for other serious respiratory infectious diseases, including non-avian influenza, SARS, hantavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, antibiotic-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae and pneumonia-causing Staphylococcus aureus.

  18. Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

    2013-01-01

    Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

  19. Pandemic influenza A virus codon usage revisited: biases, adaptation and implications for vaccine strain development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goñi Natalia

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza A virus (IAV is a member of the family Orthomyxoviridae and contains eight segments of a single-stranded RNA genome with negative polarity. The first influenza pandemic of this century was declared in April of 2009, with the emergence of a novel H1N1 IAV strain (H1N1pdm in Mexico and USA. Understanding the extent and causes of biases in codon usage is essential to the understanding of viral evolution. A comprehensive study to investigate the effect of selection pressure imposed by the human host on the codon usage of an emerging, pandemic IAV strain and the trends in viral codon usage involved over the pandemic time period is much needed. Results We performed a comprehensive codon usage analysis of 310 IAV strains from the pandemic of 2009. Highly biased codon usage for Ala, Arg, Pro, Thr and Ser were found. Codon usage is strongly influenced by underlying biases in base composition. When correspondence analysis (COA on relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU is applied, the distribution of IAV ORFs in the plane defined by the first two major dimensional factors showed that different strains are located at different places, suggesting that IAV codon usage also reflects an evolutionary process. Conclusions A general association between codon usage bias, base composition and poor adaptation of the virus to the respective host tRNA pool, suggests that mutational pressure is the main force shaping H1N1 pdm IAV codon usage. A dynamic process is observed in the variation of codon usage of the strains enrolled in these studies. These results suggest a balance of mutational bias and natural selection, which allow the virus to explore and re-adapt its codon usage to different environments. Recoding of IAV taking into account codon bias, base composition and adaptation to host tRNA may provide important clues to develop new and appropriate vaccines.

  20. Epidemiological characteristics of the influenza A(H1N1 2009 pandemic in the Western Pacific Region

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    Lisa McCallum

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The first laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 in the Western Pacific Region were reported on 28 April 2009. By 11 June 2009, the day the pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization, nine Western Pacific Region countries and areas had reported laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 cases. From April 2009 to July 2010, more than 250 000 cases and 1800 deaths from laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1 2009 were reported from 34 countries and areas in the Region. By age group region-wide, 8.6%, 41.9%, 48.3%, and 1.2% of cases were in the < 5 years, 5–14 years, 15–64 years, and 65+ years age groups, respectively; the overall crude case fatality ratio in the Western Pacific Region was 0.5%. The pandemic demonstrated that region-wide disease reporting was possible. Countries and areas of the Western Pacific Region should take this opportunity to strengthen the systems established during the pandemic to develop routine disease reporting.

  1. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

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    Stefano Merler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated. METHODS: The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was determined using left over sera taken for diagnostic purposes or routine ascertainment obtained from clinical laboratories. The antibody titres were measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI assay. To investigate whether certain age groups had higher risk of infection the presence of protective antibody (≥1∶40, was calculated using exact binomial 95% CI on both pre- and post- pandemic serological data in the age groups considered. To estimate age-specific susceptibility to infection we used an age-structured SEIR model. RESULTS: By comparing pre- and post-pandemic serological data in Italy we found age- specific attack rates similar to those observed in other countries. Cumulative attack rate at the end of the first A/H1N1pdm season in Italy was estimated to be 16.3% (95% CI 9.4%-23.1%. Modeling results allow ruling out the hypothesis that only age-specific characteristics of the contact network and levels of pre-pandemic immunity are responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection. This means that age-specific susceptibility to infection, suspected to play an important role in the pandemic, was not only determined by pre-pandemic levels of H1N1pdm antibody measured by HI. CONCLUSIONS: Our results claim for new studies to better identify the biological mechanisms, which might have determined the observed pattern of susceptibility with age. Moreover, our results highlight the need to obtain early estimates of differential susceptibility with age in

  2. Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torun, Sebahat D; Torun, Fuat; Catak, Binali

    2010-10-10

    Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting

  3. Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torun Fuat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Both the health care workers (HCWs and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. Results A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105 reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1% of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Conclusions Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the

  4. "I-MOVE" towards monitoring seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness: lessons learnt from a pilot multi-centric case-control study in Europe, 2008-9.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissling, E; Valenciano, M; Falcao, Jm; Larrauri, A; Widgren, K; Pitigoi, D; Oroszi, B; Nunes, B; Savulescu, C; Mazick, A; Lupulescu, E; Ciancio, B; Moren, A

    2009-11-05

    Within I-MOVE (European programme to monitor seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE)) five countries conducted IVE pilot case-control studies in 2008-9. One hundred and sixty sentinel general practitioners (GP) swabbed all elderly consulting for influenza-like illness (ILI). Influenza confirmed cases were compared to influenza negative controls. We conducted a pooled analysis to obtain a summary IVE in the age group of >or=65 years. We measured IVE in each study and assessed heterogeneity between studies qualitatively and using the I2 index. We used a one-stage pooled model with study as a fixed effect. We adjusted estimates for age-group, sex, chronic diseases, smoking, functional status, previous influenza vaccinations and previous hospitalisations. The pooled analysis included 138 cases and 189 test-negative controls. There was no statistical heterogeneity (I2=0) between studies but ILI case definition, previous hospitalisations and functional status were slightly different. The adjusted IVE was 59.1% (95% CI: 15.3-80.3%). IVE was 65.4% (95% CI: 15.6-85.8%) in the 65-74, 59.6% (95% CI: -72.6 -90.6%) in the age group of >or=75 and 56.4% (95% CI: -0.2-81.3%) for A(H3). Pooled analysis is feasible among European studies. The variables definitions need further standardisation. Larger sample sizes are needed to achieve greater precision for subgroup analysis. For 2009-10, I-MOVE will extend the study to obtain early IVE estimates in groups targeted for pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination.

  5. Quantifying the risk of pandemic influenza virus evolution by mutation and re-assortment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reperant, Leslie A; Grenfell, Bryan T; Osterhaus, Albert D M E

    2015-12-08

    Large outbreaks of zoonotic influenza A virus (IAV) infections may presage an influenza pandemic. However, the likelihood that an airborne-transmissible variant evolves upon zoonotic infection or co-infection with zoonotic and seasonal IAVs remains poorly understood, as does the relative importance of accumulating mutations versus re-assortment in this process. Using discrete-time probabilistic models, we determined quantitative probability ranges that transmissible variants with 1-5 mutations and transmissible re-assortants evolve after a given number of zoonotic IAV infections. The systematic exploration of a large population of model parameter values was designed to account for uncertainty and variability in influenza virus infection, epidemiological and evolutionary processes. The models suggested that immunocompromised individuals are at high risk of generating IAV variants with pandemic potential by accumulation of mutations. Yet, both immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals could generate high viral loads of single and double mutants, which may facilitate their onward transmission and the subsequent accumulation of additional 1-2 mutations in newly-infected individuals. This may result in the evolution of a full transmissible genotype along short chains of contact transmission. Although co-infection with zoonotic and seasonal IAVs was shown to be a rare event, it consistently resulted in high viral loads of re-assortants, which may facilitate their onward transmission among humans. The prevention or limitation of zoonotic IAV infection in immunocompromised and contact individuals, including health care workers, as well as vaccination against seasonal IAVs-limiting the risk of co-infection-should be considered fundamental tools to thwart the evolution of a novel pandemic IAV by accumulation of mutations and re-assortment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Public health measures during an anticipated influenza pandemic: Factors influencing willingness to comply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Taylor

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Melanie Taylor1, Beverley Raphael1, Margo Barr2, Kingsley Agho1, Garry Stevens1, Louisa Jorm11School of Medicine, University of Western Sydney, Sydney, Australia; 2Centre for Epidemiology and Research, New South Wales Department of Health, Sydney, AustraliaAbstract: This research assessed factors associated with willingness to comply with vaccination, isolation, and face mask wearing during an anticipated influenza pandemic. Data were collected from 2081 adults (16+ using a module of questions incorporated into the NSW Health Adult Population Health Survey. High levels of willingness to comply were reported with 73% either very or extremely willing to receive vaccination, 67% willing to isolate themselves, 58% willing to wear a face mask, and 48% willing to comply with all three behaviors. Further analysis indicated concern for self and family and higher levels of education were associated with high levels of willingness to comply. Younger people (16–24 were the least willing to comply; especially with wearing a face mask. Those with children reported higher levels of willingness to receive vaccination, and respondents who speak a language other than English at home were less willing to isolate themselves or comply with all behaviors. These findings provide a baseline measure of anticipated public compliance with key public health behaviors in the event of an influenza pandemic in the Australian population, and help to identify groups that may be more resistant to individual measures and may require additional attention in terms of risk communication strategies or health education.Keywords: risk perception, pandemic influenza, compliance, health behaviors

  7. The re-appearing shadow of 1918: trends in the historiography of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philips, Howard

    2004-01-01

    This article traces the ways in which the subject of the "Spanish" Influenza pandemic of 1918-19, the worst short-term pandemic of modern times, has been treated (or ignored) by historians over the last 86 years. In doing so , it identifies four distinct surges of interest in the topic, each producing a different conception of this pandemic as history: as epidemiology, as high drama, as social science and ecology, and as scientific saga. It seeks to explain these differing conceptions as part of a wider phenomenon, viz., how an event can be neglected, discovered, made, and re-made as history.

  8. Hospitalizations Associated with Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Asthmatic Children in Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Toshio Katsunuma; Takehiko Matsui; Tsutomu Iwata; Mitsuhiko Nambu; Naomi Kondo

    2012-01-01

    Background: The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 [pdm (H1N1) 2009] spread through the world in 2009, producing a serious epidemic in Japan. Since it was suggested early that asthma is a risk factor for an increased severity of the infection, the Japanese Society of Pediatric Allergy and Clinical Immunology (JSPACI) organized a working group for countermeasures, and investigated asthmatic children admitted to the hospitals for pdm (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods: An appeal was made on the ho...

  9. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Involved in Severe Acute Respiratory Disease in Northern Italy during the Pandemic and Postpandemic Period (2009–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Pariani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009 pandemic, international health authorities recommended monitoring severe and complicated cases of respiratory disease, that is, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. We evaluated the proportion of SARI/ARDS cases and deaths due to influenza A(H1N1pdm09 infection and the impact of other respiratory viruses during pandemic and postpandemic period (2009–2011 in northern Italy; additionally we searched for unknown viruses in those cases for which diagnosis remained negative. 206 respiratory samples were collected from SARI/ARDS cases and analyzed by real-time RT-PCR/PCR to investigate influenza viruses and other common respiratory pathogens; also, a virus discovery technique (VIDISCA-454 was applied on those samples tested negative to all pathogens. Influenza A(H1N1pdm09 virus was detected in 58.3% of specimens, with a case fatality rate of 11.3%. The impact of other respiratory viruses was 19.4%, and the most commonly detected viruses were human rhinovirus/enterovirus and influenza A(H3N2. VIDISCA-454 enabled the identification of one previously undiagnosed measles infection. Nearly 22% of SARI/ARDS cases did not obtain a definite diagnosis. In clinical practice, great efforts should be dedicated to improving the diagnosis of severe respiratory disease; the introduction of innovative molecular technologies, as VIDISCA-454, will certainly help in reducing such “diagnostic gap.”

  10. An Analysis of 332 Fatalities Infected with Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) in Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanzat, Ana M.; Hertlein, Christian; Apezteguia, Carlos; Bonvehi, Pablo; Cámera, Luis; Gentile, Angela; Rizzo, Oscar; Gómez-Carrillo, Manuel; Coronado, Fatima; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Chávez, Pollyanna R.; Widdowson, Marc-Alain

    2012-01-01

    Background The apparent high number of deaths in Argentina during the 2009 pandemic led to concern that the influenza A H1N1pdm disease was different there. We report the characteristics and risk factors for influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities. Methods We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities occurring during June-July 2009. Physicians abstracted data on age, sex, time of onset of illness, medical history, clinical presentation at admission, laboratory, treatment, and outcomes using standardize questionnaires. We explored the characteristics of fatalities according to their age and risk group. Results Of 332 influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities, 226 (68%) were among persons aged Argentina, though timeliness of antiviral treatment improved during the pandemic. PMID:22506006

  11. Streptococcus pneumoniae Coinfection Is Correlated with the Severity of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisterna, Daniel; Savji, Nazir; Bussetti, Ana Valeria; Kapoor, Vishal; Hui, Jeffrey; Tokarz, Rafal; Briese, Thomas; Baumeister, Elsa; Lipkin, W. Ian

    2009-01-01

    .0004). In subjects 6 to 55 years of age, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of severe disease in the presence of S. pneumoniae was 125.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.95, 928.72; p<0.0001). Conclusions/Significance The association of S. pneumoniae with morbidity and mortality is established in the current and previous influenza pandemics. However, this study is the first to demonstrate the prognostic significance of non-invasive antemortem diagnosis of S. pneumoniae infection and may provide insights into clinical management. PMID:20046873

  12. Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stein Mart

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. Results The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. Conclusions The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for

  13. EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW); Scientific Opinion on monitoring for the emergence of possible new pandemic strains of influenza in animals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøtner, Anette; Capua, Ilaria; Gatherer, Derek

    Following the emergence in 2009 of the new pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, which contained gene segments from pig, bird and human influenza viruses, it was apparent that a better scientific understanding is required of influenza viruses to protect public and animal health. The latest scientific data...... on biological properties of the virus, transmissibility, host susceptibility and epidemiology has been evaluated in order to identify factors that could be monitored in animals and that would suggest a risk of emergence of a new pandemic influenza strains. Virological studies and animal models have highlighted...... an alert for the emergence of new human influenza strains of public health significance. In contrast, there is an incomplete view of the influenza virus strains circulating among pigs and birds at the global level. Interpretation of the origins and pandemic potential of influenza viruses do require...

  14. Global Spatio-temporal Patterns of Influenza in the Post-pandemic Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Daihai; Lui, Roger; Wang, Lin; Tse, Chi Kong; Yang, Lin; Stone, Lewi

    2015-06-01

    We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and January 2015. The data were obtained from FluNet, the surveillance network compiled by the the World Health Organization. We report a pattern of skip-and-resurgence behavior between the years 2011 and 2013 for influenza H1N1pdm, the strain responsible for the 2009 pandemic, in Europe and Eastern Asia. In particular, the expected H1N1pdm epidemic outbreak in 2011/12 failed to occur (or “skipped”) in many countries across the globe, although an outbreak occurred in the following year. We also report a pattern of well-synchronized wave of H1N1pdm in early 2011 in the Northern Hemisphere countries, and a pattern of replacement of strain H1N1pre by H1N1pdm between the 2009 and 2012 influenza seasons. Using both a statistical and a mechanistic mathematical model, and through fitting the data of 108 countries, we discuss the mechanisms that are likely to generate these events taking into account the role of multi-strain dynamics. A basic understanding of these patterns has important public health implications and scientific significance.

  15. Adaptation of high-growth influenza H5N1 vaccine virus in Vero cells: implications for pandemic preparedness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Fen Tseng

    Full Text Available Current egg-based influenza vaccine production technology can't promptly meet the global demand during an influenza pandemic as shown in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Moreover, its manufacturing capacity would be vulnerable during pandemics caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Therefore, vaccine production using mammalian cell technology is becoming attractive. Current influenza H5N1 vaccine strain (NIBRG-14, a reassortant virus between A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1 virus and egg-adapted high-growth A/PR/8/1934 virus, could grow efficiently in eggs and MDCK cells but not Vero cells which is the most popular cell line for manufacturing human vaccines. After serial passages and plaque purifications of the NIBRG-14 vaccine virus in Vero cells, one high-growth virus strain (Vero-15 was generated and can grow over 10(8 TCID(50/ml. In conclusion, one high-growth H5N1 vaccine virus was generated in Vero cells, which can be used to manufacture influenza H5N1 vaccines and prepare reassortant vaccine viruses for other influenza A subtypes.

  16. Assessment of half-mask elastomeric respirator and powered air-purifying respirator reprocessing for an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Caryn; Harnish, Delbert A; Sandoval-Powers, Megan; Mills, Devin; Bergman, Michael; Heimbuch, Brian K

    2017-12-01

    Health care facilities are considering the use of reusable respiratory protective devices (RPDs) to mitigate a potential N95 filtering facepiece respirator shortage caused by an influenza pandemic. US regulators are also considering stockpiling reusable RPDs for pandemic preparedness, but limited data exist on the effectiveness of cleaning and disinfection of these devices. This study defines reprocessing protocols and evaluates their effectiveness against a pandemic influenza strain in a laboratory setting. Five half-mask elastomeric respirator models and 3 powered air-purifying respirator models were contaminated with influenza virus and artificial skin oil on multiple surfaces. RPDs were then manually treated with 1 of 2 methods: cleaned or cleaned and disinfected. Presence of viable influenza was determined via swab sampling and a median tissue culture infectious dose assay. Across 41 RPD surfaces, a mean log reduction in viable influenza of 4.54 ± 0.97 log 10 median tissue culture infectious dose was achieved for all treated surfaces, which included both cleaned and cleaned and disinfected surfaces. The methods defined as part of this study are effective for eliminating viable influenza in the presence of artificial skin oil on most of the RPD surfaces tested. Material type and RPD design should be considered when implementing RPD reprocessing protocols. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) during an annual influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Ronald; Roberts, Craig S; An, Zhijie; Chen, Chieh-I; Wang, Bruce

    2015-07-24

    China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. Routine

  18. The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco

    2010-02-22

    Little is known on how different levels of population heterogeneity and different patterns of human mobility affect the course of pandemic influenza in terms of timing and impact. By employing a large-scale spatially explicit individual-based model, founded on a highly detailed model of the European populations and on a careful analysis of air and railway transportation data, we provide quantitative measures of the influence of such factors at the European scale. Our results show that Europe has to be prepared to face a rapid diffusion of a pandemic influenza, because of the high mobility of the population, resulting in the early importation of the first cases from abroad and highly synchronized local epidemics. The impact of the epidemic in European countries is highly variable because of the marked differences in the sociodemographic structure of European populations. R(0), cumulative attack rate and peak daily attack rate depend heavily on sociodemographic parameters, such as the size of household groups and the fraction of workers and students in the population.

  19. Spreading patterns of the influenza A (H1N1 pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio de Picoli Junior

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1/S-OIV pandemic by analyzing data obtained from World Health Organization containing the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infections--by country--in a period of 69 days, from 26 April to 3 July, 2009. Specifically, we find evidence of exponential growth in the total number of confirmed cases and linear growth in the number of countries with confirmed cases. We also find that, i at early stages, the cumulative distribution of cases among countries exhibits linear behavior on log-log scale, being well approximated by a power law decay; ii for larger times, the cumulative distribution presents a systematic curvature on log-log scale, indicating a gradual change to lognormal behavior. Finally, we compare these empirical findings with the predictions of a simple stochastic model. Our results could help to select more realistic models of the dynamics of influenza-type pandemics.

  20. [The influenza pandemic 1968-1970: crisis management in separated Germany - "Vodka and Raspberry Tea"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, W

    2011-12-01

    The Hong Kong Flu in the years 1968-1970 challenged both German health care systems. This article intends to analyse the patterns of reaction to the pandemic. Both German states faced the threat according to their respective ideological orientation. This applied to the two parts of Berlin - West and East - as well. In the GDR the control of influenza was centrally organized. When the pandemic passed away an influenza guiding document ("Führungsdokument") was made obligatory for the fight against the plague. In the FRG hospital treatment maintained predominance while the outpatient sector was administrated by physicians in private practice. In West- Berlin outpatient clinics were declined by the Association of Physicians ("Kassenärztliche Vereinigung"). In 1970 a first concept of surveillance was presented on the level of the state in West Germany. In the years 1968-1970 vaccinations were not common in both German states. The essay is based on the analysis of archival sources, monographs, scientific and newspaper articles. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. 'Spanish' flu and army horses : What historians and biologists can learn from a history of animals with flu during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haalboom, Floor

    2014-01-01

    At the time of the 1918-1919 ‘Spanish' influenza pandemic, influenza researchers did not just relate this disease to the human population, despite the focus of historians of medicine on its human aspects and meanings. In line with the use of historical reports of animals with influenza in

  2. Detection of pandemic strain of influenza virus (A/H1N1/pdm09) in pigs, West Africa: implications and considerations for prevention of future influenza pandemics at the source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeola, Oluwagbenga A; Olugasa, Babasola O; Emikpe, Benjamin O

    2015-01-01

    Human and animal influenza are inextricably linked. In particular, the pig is uniquely important as a mixing vessel for genetic reassortment of influenza viruses, leading to emergence of novel strains which may cause human pandemics. Significant reduction in transmission of influenza viruses from humans, and other animals, to swine may therefore be crucial for preventing future influenza pandemics. This study investigated the presence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus, A(H1N1)pdm09, in Nigerian and Ghanaian pigs, and also determined levels of acceptance of preventive measures which could significantly reduce the transmission of this virus from humans to pigs. Nasal swab specimens from 125 pigs in Ibadan, Nigeria, and Kumasi, Ghana, were tested for the presence of influenza A/California/04/2009 (H1N1) by quantitative antigen-detection ELISA. A semi-structured questionnaire was also administered to pig handlers in the two study areas and responses were analyzed to evaluate their compliance with seven measures for preventing human-to-swine transmission of influenza viruses. The virus was detected among pigs in the two cities, with prevalence of 8% in Ibadan and 10% in Kumasi. Levels of compliance of pig handlers with relevant preventive measures were also found to be mostly below 25 and 40% in Ibadan and Kumasi, respectively. Detection of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 among pigs tested suggests the possibility of human-to-swine transmission, which may proceed even more rapidly, considering the very poor acceptance of basic preventive measures observed in this study. This is also the first report on detection of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Ghanaian pigs. We recommend improvement on personal hygiene among pig handlers, enforcement of sick leave particularly during the first few days of influenza-like illnesses, and training of pig handlers on recognition of influenza-like signs in humans and pigs. These could be crucial for prevention of future influenza pandemics.

  3. A polyvalent influenza A DNA vaccine induces heterologous immunity and protects pigs against pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bragstad, Karoline; Vinner, Lasse; Hansen, Mette Sif

    2013-01-01

    seasonal and emerging influenza viruses. We have developed an alternative influenza vaccine based on DNA expressing selected influenza proteins of pandemic and seasonal origin. In the current study, we investigated the protection of a polyvalent influenza DNA vaccine approach in pigs. We immunised pigs...... intradermally with a combination of influenza DNA vaccine components based on the pandemic 1918 H1N1 (M and NP genes), pandemic 2009 H1N1pdm09 (HA and NA genes) and seasonal 2005 H3N2 genes (HA and NA genes) and investigated the protection against infection with virus both homologous and heterologous to the DNA...... of this DNA vaccine to limit virus shedding may have an impact on virus spread among pigs which could possibly extend to humans as well, thereby diminishing the risk for epidemics and pandemics to evolve....

  4. A qualitative study of pandemic influenza preparedness among small and medium-sized businesses in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Deron C; Confield, Evan; Gasner, Mary Rose; Weisfuse, Isaac

    2011-10-01

    Small businesses need to engage in continuity planning to assure delivery of goods and services and to sustain the economy during an influenza pandemic. This is especially true in New York City, where 98 per cent of businesses have fewer than 100 employees. It was an objective therefore, to determine pandemic influenza business continuity practices and strategies suitable for small and medium-sized NYC businesses. The study design used focus groups, and the participants were owners and managers of businesses with fewer than 500 employees in New York City. The main outcome measures looked for were the degree of pandemic preparedness, and the feasibility of currently proposed business continuity strategies. Most participants reported that their businesses had no pandemic influenza plan. Agreement with feasibility of specific business continuity strategies was influenced by the type of business represented, cost of the strategy, and business size. It was concluded that recommendations for pandemic-related business continuity plans for small and medium-sized businesses should be tailored to the type and size of business and should highlight the broad utility of the proposed strategies to address a range of business stressors.

  5. Computer Simulation as a Tool for Assessing Decision-Making in Pandemic Influenza Response Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M Leaming

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to develop and test a computer-based, interactive simulation of a hypothetical pandemic influenza outbreak. Fidelity was enhanced with integrated video and branching decision trees, built upon the 2007 federal planning assumptions. We conducted a before-and-after study of the simulation effectiveness to assess the simulations’ ability to assess participants’ beliefs regarding their own hospitals’ mass casualty incident preparedness.Methods: Development: Using a Delphi process, we finalized a simulation that serves up a minimum of over 50 key decisions to 6 role-players on networked laptops in a conference area. The simulation played out an 8-week scenario, beginning with pre-incident decisions. Testing: Role-players and trainees (N=155 were facilitated to make decisions during the pandemic. Because decision responses vary, the simulation plays out differently, and a casualty counter quantifies hypothetical losses. The facilitator reviews and critiques key factors for casualty control, including effective communications, working with external organizations, development of internal policies and procedures, maintaining supplies and services, technical infrastructure support, public relations and training. Pre- and post-survey data were compared on trainees.Results: Post-simulation trainees indicated a greater likelihood of needing to improve their organization in terms of communications, mass casualty incident planning, public information and training. Participants also recognized which key factors required immediate attention at their own home facilities.Conclusion: The use of a computer-simulation was effective in providing a facilitated environment for determining the perception of preparedness, evaluating general preparedness concepts and introduced participants to critical decisions involved in handling a regional pandemic influenza surge. [West J Emerg Med. 2013;14(3:236–242.

  6. Vaccine procurement during an influenza pandemic and the role of Advance Purchase Agreements: Lessons from 2009-H1N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Mark

    2015-07-24

    Vaccines are hugely important tools in minimising the effect pandemic influenza could have on a population. The reforms introduced by the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework are ill-suited to providing sufficient levels of access to vaccines to meet the needs of developing states, and as such developing states will continue to be reliant upon the traditional methods of vaccine procurement to procure the majority of the vaccines they required. Using procurement during 2009-H1N1 as a case study, this paper examines the methods of procurement utilised by states in order to determine if the procurement tools available to developing states are sufficient to procure adequate levels of pandemic influenza vaccines. Particular focus is given to the role Advance Purchase Agreements (APAs) play in the procurement process. By exploring this case study it is possible to argue that these procurement methods are ineffective for developing states, and when the next influenza pandemic occurs, demand will once again outstrip supply globally, due to supply of vaccines being dominated by the developed states with APAs in place.

  7. The Scourge of Asian Flu: In Utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Elaine

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon childhood development. Outcome data are provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study where all members were potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of…

  8. Swine flu and hype: a systematic review of media dramatization of the H1N1 influenza pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klemm, C.; Das, E.; Hartmann, T.

    2016-01-01

    Highly disconcerting at the time, in retrospective, the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic looks like much ado about nothing. As a consequence, many accused the media of having created an artificial hype or hysteria around the new virus, thus contributing to unwarranted public fear. The current paper set

  9. Evolution of an influenza pandemic in 13 countries from 5 continents monitored by protein microarray from neonatal screening bloodspots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.I. de Bruin (Esther); J.G. Loeber (Gerard); A. Meijer (Adam); G.M. Castillo (G. Martinez); F. Cepeda; M.R. Torres-Sepúlveda (M. Rosario); G.J.C. Borrajo (G. J C); M. Caggana (M.); V. Giguere; M. Meyer (Magali); M. Fukushi (M.); A.R.R. Devi (A.R. Rama); I. Khneisser (I.); L. Vilarinho (L.); U. von Döbeln (U.); T. Torresani (T.); J. Mackenzie; I. Zutt (I.); M. Schipper (Maarten); L.H. Elvers; M.P.G. Koopmans D.V.M. (Marion)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Because of lack of worldwide standardization of influenza virus surveillance, comparison between countries of impact of a pandemic is challenging. For that, other approaches to allow internationally comparative serosurveys are welcome. Objectives: Here we explore the use of

  10. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) and other respiratory pathogens: clinical insights - from epidemiology to treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, P.M.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis contains clinical studies on 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) and other respiratory pathogens. Chapter 1 is a general introduction. Chapter 2 comprises three studies on epidemiology. The first describes epidemiological characteristics of 964 adult outpatients who presented with

  11. Hospital triage system for adult patients using an influenza-like illness scoring system during the 2009 pandemic--Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Noriega, Eduardo; Gonzalez-Diaz, Esteban; Morfin-Otero, Rayo; Gomez-Abundis, Gerardo F; Briseño-Ramirez, Jaime; Perez-Gomez, Hector Raul; Lopez-Gatell, Hugo; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia M; Ramírez, Ernesto; López, Irma; Iguala, Miguel; Bojórquez Chapela, Ietza; Palacios Zavala, Ethel; Hernández, Mauricio; Stuart, Tammy L; Villarino, Margarita Elsa; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Waterman, Steve; Uyeki, Timothy; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

    2010-05-14

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged during 2009. To help clinicians triage adults with acute respiratory illness, a scoring system for influenza-like illness (ILI) was implemented at Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico. A medical history, laboratory and radiology results were collected on emergency room (ER) patients with acute respiratory illness to calculate an ILI-score. Patients were evaluated for admission by their ILI-score and clinicians' assessment of risk for developing complications. Nasal and throat swabs were collected from intermediate and high-risk patients for influenza testing by RT-PCR. The disposition and ILI-score of those oseltamivir-treated versus untreated, clinical characteristics of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) patients versus test-negative patients were compared by Pearson's Chi(2), Fisher's Exact, and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Of 1840 ER patients, 230 were initially hospitalized (mean ILI-score = 15), and the rest were discharged, including 286 ambulatory patients given oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 11), and 1324 untreated (median ILI-score = 5). Fourteen (1%) untreated patients returned, and 3 were hospitalized on oseltamivir (median ILI-score = 19). Of 371 patients tested by RT-PCR, 104 (28%) had pandemic influenza and 42 (11%) had seasonal influenza A detected. Twenty (91%) of 22 imaged hospitalized pandemic influenza patients had bilateral infiltrates compared to 23 (38%) of 61 imaged hospital test-negative patients (pinfluenza presented 6 days after symptom onset, required mechanical ventilation, and died. The triaging system that used an ILI-score complimented clinicians' judgment of who needed oseltamivir and inpatient care and helped hospital staff manage a surge in demand for services.

  12. In situ molecular identification of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Neuraminidase in patients with severe and fatal infections during a pandemic in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocadiz-Delgado, Rodolfo; Albino-Sanchez, Martha Estela; Garcia-Villa, Enrique; Aguilar-Gonzalez, Maria Guadalupe; Cabello, Carlos; Rosete, Dora; Mejia, Fidencio; Manjarrez-Zavala, Maria Eugenia; Ondarza-Aguilera, Carmen; Rivera-Rosales, Rosa Ma; Gariglio, Patricio

    2013-01-18

    In April 2009, public health surveillance detected an increased number of influenza-like illnesses in Mexico City's hospitals. The etiological agent was subsequently determined to be a spread of a worldwide novel influenza A (H1N1) triple reassortant. The purpose of the present study was to demonstrate that molecular detection of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 strains is possible in archival material such as paraffin-embedded lung samples. In order to detect A (H1N1) virus sequences in archived biological samples, eight paraffin-embedded lung samples from patients who died of pneumonia and respiratory failure were tested for influenza A (H1N1) Neuraminidase (NA) RNA using in situ RT-PCR. We detected NA transcripts in 100% of the previously diagnosed A (H1N1)-positive samples as a cytoplasmic signal. No expression was detected by in situ RT-PCR in two Influenza-like Illness A (H1N1)-negative patients using standard protocols nor in a non-related cervical cell line. In situ relative transcription levels correlated with those obtained when in vitro RT-PCR assays were performed. Partial sequences of the NA gene from A (H1N1)-positive patients were obtained by the in situ RT-PCR-sequencing method. Sequence analysis showed 98% similarity with influenza viruses reported previously in other places. We have successfully amplified specific influenza A (H1N1) NA sequences using stored clinical material; results suggest that this strategy could be useful when clinical RNA samples are quantity limited, or when poor quality is obtained. Here, we provide a very sensitive method that specifically detects the neuraminidase viral RNA in lung samples from patients who died from pneumonia caused by Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in Mexico City.

  13. In situ molecular identification of the Influenza A (H1N1 2009 Neuraminidase in patients with severe and fatal infections during a pandemic in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ocadiz-Delgado Rodolfo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In April 2009, public health surveillance detected an increased number of influenza-like illnesses in Mexico City’s hospitals. The etiological agent was subsequently determined to be a spread of a worldwide novel influenza A (H1N1 triple reassortant. The purpose of the present study was to demonstrate that molecular detection of pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 strains is possible in archival material such as paraffin-embedded lung samples. Methods In order to detect A (H1N1 virus sequences in archived biological samples, eight paraffin-embedded lung samples from patients who died of pneumonia and respiratory failure were tested for influenza A (H1N1 Neuraminidase (NA RNA using in situ RT-PCR. Results We detected NA transcripts in 100% of the previously diagnosed A (H1N1-positive samples as a cytoplasmic signal. No expression was detected by in situ RT-PCR in two Influenza-like Illness A (H1N1-negative patients using standard protocols nor in a non-related cervical cell line. In situ relative transcription levels correlated with those obtained when in vitro RT-PCR assays were performed. Partial sequences of the NA gene from A (H1N1-positive patients were obtained by the in situ RT-PCR-sequencing method. Sequence analysis showed 98% similarity with influenza viruses reported previously in other places. Conclusions We have successfully amplified specific influenza A (H1N1 NA sequences using stored clinical material; results suggest that this strategy could be useful when clinical RNA samples are quantity limited, or when poor quality is obtained. Here, we provide a very sensitive method that specifically detects the neuraminidase viral RNA in lung samples from patients who died from pneumonia caused by Influenza A (H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City.

  14. MicroRNA expression profile of mouse lung infected with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihao Wu

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs have been implicated in the regulation of gene expression of various biological processes in a post-transcriptional manner under physiological and pathological conditions including host responses to viral infections. The 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is an emerging reassortant strain of swine, human and bird influenza virus that can cause mild to severe illness and even death. To further understand the molecular pathogenesis of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, we profiled cellular microRNAs of lungs from BALB/c mice infected with wild-type 2009 pandemic influenza virus A/Beijing/501/2009 (H1N1 (hereafter referred to as BJ501 and mouse-adapted influenza virus A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1 (hereafter referred to as PR8 for comparison. Microarray analysis showed both the influenza virus BJ501 and PR8 infection induced strain- and temporal-specific microRNA expression patterns and that their infection caused a group of common and distinct differentially expressed microRNAs. Characteristically, more differentially expressed microRNAs were aroused on day 5 post infection than on day 2 and more up-regulated differentially expressed microRNAs were provoked than the down-regulated for both strains of influenza virus. Finally, 47 differentially expressed microRNAs were obtained for the infection of both strains of H1N1 influenza virus with 29 for influenza virus BJ501 and 43 for PR8. Among them, 15 microRNAs had no reported function, while 32 including miR-155 and miR-233 are known to play important roles in cancer, immunity and antiviral activity. Pathway enrichment analyses of the predicted targets revealed that the transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β signaling pathway was the key cellular pathway associated with the differentially expressed miRNAs during influenza virus PR8 or BJ501 infection. To our knowledge, this is the first report of microRNA expression profiles of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in a mouse model, and

  15. Evolution of an influenza pandemic in 13 countries from 5 continents monitored by protein microarray from neonatal screening bloodspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruin, E; Loeber, J G; Meijer, A; Castillo, G Martinez; Cepeda, M L Granados; Torres-Sepúlveda, M Rosario; Borrajo, G J C; Caggana, M; Giguere, Y; Meyer, M; Fukushi, M; Devi, A R Rama; Khneisser, I; Vilarinho, L; von Döbeln, U; Torresani, T; Mackenzie, J; Zutt, I; Schipper, M; Elvers, L H; Koopmans, M P G

    2014-09-01

    Because of lack of worldwide standardization of influenza virus surveillance, comparison between countries of impact of a pandemic is challenging. For that, other approaches to allow internationally comparative serosurveys are welcome. Here we explore the use of neonatal screening dried blood spots to monitor the trends of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pdm virus by the use of a protein microarray. We contacted colleagues from neonatal screening laboratories and asked for their willingness to participate in a study by testing anonymized neonatal screening bloodspots collected during the course of the pandemic. In total, 7749 dried blood spots from 13 countries in 5 continents where analyzed by using a protein microarray containing HA1 recombinant proteins derived from pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 as well as seasonal influenza viruses. Results confirm the early start of the pandemic with extensive circulation in the US and Canada, when circulation of the new virus was limited in other parts of the world. The data collected from sites in Mexico suggested limited circulation of the virus during the early pandemic phase in this country. In contrast and to our surprise, an increase in seroprevalence early in 2009 was noted in the dataset from Argentina, suggestive of much more widespread circulation of the novel virus in this country than in Mexico. We conclude that this uniform serological testing of samples from a highly standardized screening system offers an interesting opportunity for monitoring population level attack rates of widespread diseases outbreaks and pandemics. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph T Wu

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza in domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the possible evolution of a novel human strain [1]. If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimate the expected reduction in primary attack rates for different household-based interventions using a mathematical model of influenza transmission within and between households. We show that, for lower transmissibility strains [2,4], the combination of household-based quarantine, isolation of cases outside the household, and targeted prophylactic use of anti-virals will be highly effective and likely feasible across a range of plausible transmission scenarios. For example, for a basic reproductive number (the average number of people infected by a typically infectious individual in an otherwise susceptible population of 1.8, assuming only 50% compliance, this combination could reduce the infection (symptomatic attack rate from 74% (49% to 40% (27%, requiring peak quarantine and isolation levels of 6.2% and 0.8% of the population, respectively, and an overall anti-viral stockpile of 3.9 doses per member of the population. Although contact tracing may be additionally effective, the resources required make it impractical in most scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: National influenza pandemic preparedness plans currently focus on reducing the impact associated with a constant attack rate, rather than on reducing transmission. Our findings suggest that the additional benefits and resource requirements of household-based interventions in reducing average levels of transmission should also be considered, even when expected levels of compliance are only moderate.

  17. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

    2016-01-01

    School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  18. Humoral and cell-mediated immunity to pandemic H1N1 influenza in a Canadian cohort one year post-pandemic: implications for vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagar, Lisa E; Rosella, Laura; Crowcroft, Natasha; Lowcock, Beth; Drohomyrecky, Paulina C; Foisy, Julie; Gubbay, Jonathan; Rebbapragada, Anu; Winter, Anne-Luise; Achonu, Camille; Ward, Brian J; Watts, Tania H

    2011-01-01

    We evaluated a cohort of Canadian donors for T cell and antibody responses against influenza A/California/7/2009 (pH1N1) at 8-10 months after the 2nd pandemic wave by flow cytometry and microneutralization assays. Memory CD8 T cell responses to pH1N1 were detectable in 58% (61/105) of donors. These responses were largely due to cross-reactive CD8 T cell epitopes as, for those donors tested, similar recall responses were obtained to A/California 2009 and A/PR8 1934 H1N1 Hviruses. Longitudinal analysis of a single infected individual showed only a small and transient increase in neutralizing antibody levels, but a robust CD8 T cell response that rose rapidly post symptom onset, peaking at 3 weeks, followed by a gradual decline to the baseline levels seen in a seroprevalence cohort post-pandemic. The magnitude of the influenza-specific CD8 T cell memory response at one year post-pandemic was similar in cases and controls as well as in vaccinated and unvaccinated donors, suggesting that any T cell boosting from infection was transient. Pandemic H1-specific antibodies were only detectable in approximately half of vaccinated donors. However, those who were vaccinated within a few months following infection had the highest persisting antibody titers, suggesting that vaccination shortly after influenza infection can boost or sustain antibody levels. For the most part the circulating influenza-specific T cell and serum antibody levels in the population at one year post-pandemic were not different between cases and controls, suggesting that natural infection does not lead to higher long term T cell and antibody responses in donors with pre-existing immunity to influenza. However, based on the responses of one longitudinal donor, it is possible for a small population of pre-existing cross-reactive memory CD8 T cells to expand rapidly following infection and this response may aid in viral clearance and contribute to a lessening of disease severity.

  19. Humoral and cell-mediated immunity to pandemic H1N1 influenza in a Canadian cohort one year post-pandemic: implications for vaccination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa E Wagar

    Full Text Available We evaluated a cohort of Canadian donors for T cell and antibody responses against influenza A/California/7/2009 (pH1N1 at 8-10 months after the 2nd pandemic wave by flow cytometry and microneutralization assays. Memory CD8 T cell responses to pH1N1 were detectable in 58% (61/105 of donors. These responses were largely due to cross-reactive CD8 T cell epitopes as, for those donors tested, similar recall responses were obtained to A/California 2009 and A/PR8 1934 H1N1 Hviruses. Longitudinal analysis of a single infected individual showed only a small and transient increase in neutralizing antibody levels, but a robust CD8 T cell response that rose rapidly post symptom onset, peaking at 3 weeks, followed by a gradual decline to the baseline levels seen in a seroprevalence cohort post-pandemic. The magnitude of the influenza-specific CD8 T cell memory response at one year post-pandemic was similar in cases and controls as well as in vaccinated and unvaccinated donors, suggesting that any T cell boosting from infection was transient. Pandemic H1-specific antibodies were only detectable in approximately half of vaccinated donors. However, those who were vaccinated within a few months following infection had the highest persisting antibody titers, suggesting that vaccination shortly after influenza infection can boost or sustain antibody levels. For the most part the circulating influenza-specific T cell and serum antibody levels in the population at one year post-pandemic were not different between cases and controls, suggesting that natural infection does not lead to higher long term T cell and antibody responses in donors with pre-existing immunity to influenza. However, based on the responses of one longitudinal donor, it is possible for a small population of pre-existing cross-reactive memory CD8 T cells to expand rapidly following infection and this response may aid in viral clearance and contribute to a lessening of disease severity.

  20. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.

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    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

    2009-11-19

    To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product ( pound8.4bn to pound16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% ( pound55.5bn to pound72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product ( pound2.2bn to pound38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% ( pound5.0bn to pound72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Balancing school closure against "business as usual" and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

  1. Who got vaccinated against H1N1 pandemic influenza? A longitudinal study in four U.S. cities.

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    Li, Meng; Chapman, Gretchen B; Ibuka, Yoko; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Galvani, Alison

    2012-01-01

    The recent H1N1 pandemic influenza stimulated numerous studies into the attitudes and intentions about the H1N1 vaccine. However, no study has investigated prospective predictors of vaccination behaviour. We conducted a two-wave longitudinal study among residents in four U.S. cities during the course of the H1N1 outbreak, using Internet surveys to assess demographic, cognitive and emotional predictors of H1N1 vaccination behaviour. Surveys were conducted at two time points, before (Time 1) and after (Time 2) the H1N1 vaccine was widely available to the public. Results show that Time 2 vaccination rates, but not Time 1 vaccination intentions, tracked H1N1 prevalence across the four cities. Receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in the previous year, worry, compliance with recommended interventions, household size and education assessed at Time 1 were significant prospective predictors of vaccination behaviour. Perception of the H1N1 vaccine, social influence and prioritised vaccine recipient status assessed at Time 2 also predicted vaccination behaviour. Critically, worry about H1N1 mediated the effects of both objective risk (prevalence at the city level) and perceived risk on vaccination behaviour. These results suggest that H1N1 vaccination behaviour appropriately reflected objective risk across regions, and worry acted as the mechanism by which vaccination behaviour followed objective risk.

  2. Molecular and epidemiological analysis of pandemic and post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from central India.

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    Sahu, Mahima; Singh, Neeru; Shukla, Mohan K; Potdar, Varhsa A; Sharma, Ravendra K; Sahare, Lalit Kumar; Ukey, Mahendra J; Barde, Pradip V

    2018-03-01

    Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus pandemic struck India in 2009 and continues to cause outbreaks in its post-pandemic phase. Diminutive information is available about influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 from central India. This observational study presents epidemiological and molecular findings for the period of 6 years. Throat swab samples referred from districts of Madhya Pradesh were subjected to diagnosis of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 following WHO guidelines. Clinical and epidemiological data were recorded and analyzed. Hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed. The H275Y mutation responsible for antiviral resistance was tested using allelic real-time RT-PCR. Out of 7365 tested samples, 2406 (32.7%) were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of which 363 (15.08%) succumbed to infection. Significant trends were observed in positivity (χ 2  = 50.8; P H1N1)pdm09 viruses having genetic diversity were detected from central India and continues to be a concern for public health. This study highlights the need of year-round monitoring by establishment of strong molecular and clinical surveillance program. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Airport arrivals screening during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in New South Wales, Australia.

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    Gunaratnam, Praveena J; Tobin, Sean; Seale, Holly; Marich, Andrew; McAnulty, Jeremy

    2014-03-17

    To examine the effectiveness of airport screening in New South Wales during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza. Analysis of data collected at clinics held at Sydney Airport, and of all notified cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, between 28 April 2009 and 18 June 2009. Case detection rate per 100,000 passengers screened, sensitivity, positive predictive value and specificity of airport screening. The proportion of all cases in the period detected at airport clinics was compared with the proportion detected in emergency departments and general practice. Of an estimated 625,147 passenger arrivals at Sydney Airport during the period, 5845 (0.93%) were identified as being symptomatic or febrile, and three of 5845 were subsequently confirmed to have influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, resulting in a detection rate of 0.05 per 10,000 screened (95% CI, 0.02-1.14 per 10,000). Forty-five patients with overseas-acquired influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in NSW would have probably passed through the airport during this time, giving airport screening a sensitivity of 6.67% (95% CI, 1.40%-18.27%). Positive predictive value was 0.05% (95% CI, 0.02%-0.15%) and specificity 99.10% (95% CI, 99.00%-100.00%). Of the 557 confirmed cases across NSW during the period, 290 (52.1%) were detected at emergency departments and 135 (24.2%) at general practices, compared with three (0.5%) detected at the airport. Airport screening was ineffective in detecting cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in NSW. Its future use should be carefully considered against potentially more effective interventions, such as contact tracing in the community.

  4. Fully human broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against influenza A viruses generated from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Weibin; Chen, Aizhong; Miao, Yi; Xia, Shengli; Ling, Zhiyang; Xu, Ke; Wang, Tongyan; Xu, Ying; Cui, Jun; Wu, Hongqiang; Hu, Guiyu; Tian, Lin; Wang, Lingling; Shu, Yuelong; Ma, Xiaowei; Xu, Bianli; Zhang, Jin; Lin, Xiaojun; Bian, Chao; Sun, Bing

    2013-01-20

    Whether the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine can induce heterosubtypic cross-protective anti-hemagglutinin (HA) neutralizing antibodies is an important issue. We obtained a panel of fully human monoclonal antibodies from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient. Most of the monoclonal antibodies targeted the HA protein but not the HA1 fragment. Among the analyzed antibodies, seven mAbs exhibited neutralizing activity against several influenza A viruses of different subtypes. The conserved linear epitope targeted by the neutralizing mAbs (FIEGGWTGMVDGWYGYHH) is part of the fusion peptide on HA2. Our work suggests that a heterosubtypic neutralizing antibody response primarily targeting the HA stem region exists in recipients of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. The HA stem region contains various conserved neutralizing epitopes with the fusion peptide as an important one. This work may aid in the design of a universal influenza A virus vaccine. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Fully human broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against influenza A viruses generated from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Weibin; Chen, Aizhong; Miao, Yi; Xia, Shengli; Ling, Zhiyang; Xu, Ke; Wang, Tongyan; Xu, Ying; Cui, Jun; Wu, Hongqiang; Hu, Guiyu; Tian, Lin; Wang, Lingling; Shu, Yuelong; Ma, Xiaowei; Xu, Bianli; Zhang, Jin; Lin, Xiaojun; Bian, Chao; Sun, Bing

    2013-01-01

    Whether the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine can induce heterosubtypic cross-protective anti-hemagglutinin (HA) neutralizing antibodies is an important issue. We obtained a panel of fully human monoclonal antibodies from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient. Most of the monoclonal antibodies targeted the HA protein but not the HA1 fragment. Among the analyzed antibodies, seven mAbs exhibited neutralizing activity against several influenza A viruses of different subtypes. The conserved linear epitope targeted by the neutralizing mAbs (FIEGGWTGMVDGWYGYHH) is part of the fusion peptide on HA2. Our work suggests that a heterosubtypic neutralizing antibody response primarily targeting the HA stem region exists in recipients of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. The HA stem region contains various conserved neutralizing epitopes with the fusion peptide as an important one. This work may aid in the design of a universal influenza A virus vaccine.

  6. Fully human broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against influenza A viruses generated from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Weibin [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Chen, Aizhong [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Miao, Yi [Shanghai Xuhui Central Hospital, Shanghai 200031 (China); Xia, Shengli [Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450016 (China); Ling, Zhiyang; Xu, Ke; Wang, Tongyan [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Xu, Ying; Cui, Jun; Wu, Hongqiang; Hu, Guiyu; Tian, Lin; Wang, Lingling [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Shu, Yuelong [Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206 (China); Ma, Xiaowei [Hualan Biological Bacterin Company, Xinxiang 453003 (China); Xu, Bianli; Zhang, Jin [Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450016 (China); Lin, Xiaojun, E-mail: linxiaojun@hualan.com [Hualan Biological Bacterin Company, Xinxiang 453003 (China); Bian, Chao, E-mail: cbian@sibs.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China); Sun, Bing, E-mail: bsun@sibs.ac.cn [Molecular Virus Unit, Key Laboratory of Molecular Virology and Immunology, Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200025 (China); Key Laboratory of Molecular Cell Biology, Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200031 (China)

    2013-01-20

    Whether the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine can induce heterosubtypic cross-protective anti-hemagglutinin (HA) neutralizing antibodies is an important issue. We obtained a panel of fully human monoclonal antibodies from the memory B cells of a 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine recipient. Most of the monoclonal antibodies targeted the HA protein but not the HA1 fragment. Among the analyzed antibodies, seven mAbs exhibited neutralizing activity against several influenza A viruses of different subtypes. The conserved linear epitope targeted by the neutralizing mAbs (FIEGGWTGMVDGWYGYHH) is part of the fusion peptide on HA2. Our work suggests that a heterosubtypic neutralizing antibody response primarily targeting the HA stem region exists in recipients of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine. The HA stem region contains various conserved neutralizing epitopes with the fusion peptide as an important one. This work may aid in the design of a universal influenza A virus vaccine.

  7. Evidence of reassortment of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in swine in Argentina: are we facing the expansion of potential epicenters of influenza emergence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereda, Ariel; Rimondi, Agustina; Cappuccio, Javier; Sanguinetti, Ramon; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Sutton, Troy; Dibárbora, Marina; Olivera, Valeria; Craig, Maria I.; Quiroga, Maria; Machuca, Mariana; Ferrero, Andrea; Perfumo, Carlos; Perez, Daniel R.

    2011-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Pereda et al. (2011) Evidence of reassortment of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in swine in Argentina: are we facing the expansion of potential epicenters of influenza emergence? Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(6), 409–412. In this report, we describe the occurrence of two novel swine influenza viruses (SIVs) in pigs in Argentina. These viruses are the result of two independent reassortment events between the H1N1 pandemic influenza virus (H1N1pdm) and human‐like SIVs, showing the constant evolution of influenza viruses at the human–swine interface and the potential health risk of H1N1pdm as it appears to be maintained in the swine population. It must be noted that because of the lack of information regarding the circulation of SIVs in South America, we cannot discard the possibility that ancestors of the H1N1pdm or other SIVs have been present in this part of the world. More importantly, these findings suggest an ever‐expanding geographic range of potential epicenters of influenza emergence with public health risks. PMID:21668680

  8. [Attitudes and side effects related to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccination in healthcare personnel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormen, Bahar; Türker, Nesrin; Vardar, Ilknur; Kaptan, Figen; El, Sibel; Ural, Serap; Kaya, Fatih; Coşkun, Nejat Ali

    2012-01-01

    The aims of this study were to evaluate the attitudes towards H1N1 vaccination and to determine the safety and side effects following 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccination. Pandemic influenza vaccine had been administered to the healthcare personnel in our research and training hospital in December 2009. The rate being vaccinated was established as 40% (800/2000). Four months following vaccination, the opinions about vaccination were asked to the healthcare workers, and also side effects were questioned to the vaccinated group. Two different questionnaires (for vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects) were delivered to the volunteers who agreed to participate in the study. Demographic features, reasons related to being vaccinated or not, were questioned. The vaccinated group was also questioned for the presence of chronic diseases, previous vaccinations (pandemic/seasonal influenza), local or systemic reactions that develop after vaccination. A total of 332 volunteers participated in the questionnaire. Of them 247 (74.4%) were vaccinated and 85 (25.6%) were unvaccinated. Male/female ratio of the participants was 1.2, and 55.7% of them were older than 30-year-old. Most of the participants (82.8%) were highly educated (high school and faculty-graduated). Vaccination rates were found statistically significant in advanced age group compared to young adults (p= 0.042); in male gender compared to females (p= 0.001) and in parents compared to subjects who didn't have children (p= 0.021). Vaccination rates were observed to be higher (57.5%) in non-medical staff (cleaning employers, administrative personnel, etc.) than the physicians (29.1%) and nurses (13.4%), and the rate was also high (54.7%) in personnel who worked in intensive care units, emergency department and administrative units than the personnel who worked in the clinics of internal medicine (22.3%) and surgery (23.1%) (p= 0.001). The most important causes of rejecting vaccination were being afraid of the

  9. Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 - a global mortality impact modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Kathleen F; Paget, John; Spreeuwenberg, Peter

    2017-09-25

    A global pandemic mortality study found prominent regional mortality variations in 2009 for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study attempts to identify factors that explain why the pandemic mortality burden was high in some countries and low in others. As a starting point, we identified possible risk factors worth investigating for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 mortality through a targeted literature search. We then used a modeling procedure (data simulations and regression models) to identify factors that could explain differences in respiratory mortality due to Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We ran sixteen models to produce robust results and draw conclusions. In order to assess the role of each factor in explaining differences in excess pandemic mortality, we calculated the reduction in between country variance, which can be viewed as an effect-size for each factor. The literature search identified 124 publications and 48 possible risk factors, of which we were able to identify 27 factors with appropriate global datasets. The modelling procedure indicated that age structure (explaining 40% of the mean between country variance), latitude (8%), influenza A and B viruses circulating during the pandemic (3-8%), influenza A and B viruses circulating during the preceding influenza season (2-6%), air pollution (pm10; 4%) and the prevalence of other infections (HIV and TB) (4-6%) were factors that explained differences in mortality around the world. Healthcare expenditure, levels of obesity, the distribution of antivirals, and air travel did not explain global pandemic mortality differences. Our study found that countries with a large proportion of young persons had higher pandemic mortality rates in 2009. The co-circulation of influenza viruses during the pandemic and the circulation of influenza viruses during the preceding season were also associated with pandemic mortality rates. We found that real time assessments of 2009 pandemic mortality risk factors (e.g. obesity) probably led to

  10. Functional Evolution of Influenza Virus NS1 Protein in Currently Circulating Human 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Amelia M; Nogales, Aitor; Martinez-Sobrido, Luis; Topham, David J; DeDiego, Marta L

    2017-09-01

    In 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in humans, causing a global pandemic. It was previously shown that the NS1 protein from this human 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus was an effective interferon (IFN) antagonist but could not inhibit general host gene expression, unlike other NS1 proteins from seasonal human H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. Here we show that the NS1 protein from currently circulating pH1N1 viruses has evolved to encode 6 amino acid changes (E55K, L90I, I123V, E125D, K131E, and N205S) with respect to the original protein. Notably, these 6 residue changes restore the ability of pH1N1 NS1 to inhibit general host gene expression, mainly by their ability to restore binding to the cellular factor CPSF30. This is the first report describing the ability of the pH1N1 NS1 protein to naturally acquire mutations that restore this function. Importantly, a recombinant pH1N1 virus containing these 6 amino acid changes in the NS1 protein (pH1N1/NSs-6mut) inhibited host IFN and proinflammatory responses to a greater extent than that with the parental virus (pH1N1/NS1-wt), yet virus titers were not significantly increased in cell cultures or in mouse lungs, and the disease was partially attenuated. The pH1N1/NSs-6mut virus grew similarly to pH1N1/NSs-wt in mouse lungs, but infection with pH1N1/NSs-6mut induced lower levels of proinflammatory cytokines, likely due to a general inhibition of gene expression mediated by the mutated NS1 protein. This lower level of inflammation induced by the pH1N1/NSs-6mut virus likely accounts for the attenuated disease phenotype and may represent a host-virus adaptation affecting influenza virus pathogenesis. IMPORTANCE Seasonal influenza A viruses (IAVs) are among the most common causes of respiratory infections in humans. In addition, occasional pandemics are caused when IAVs circulating in other species emerge in the human population. In 2009, a swine-origin H1N1 IAV (pH1N1) was transmitted to humans, infecting people then and up

  11. Fulminant hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis induced by pandemic A (H1N1 influenza: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wacrenier Agnès

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis induced by viral diseases is a well recognized entity. Severe forms of H5N1 influenza are known to be associated with symptoms very similar to a reactive hemophagocytic syndrome. We report a case of fulminant lymphohistiocytosis associated with the pandemic A (H1N1 variant. Case presentation A 42-year-old Caucasian woman developed a syndrome of fatal hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis shortly after H1N1 influenza. Initial symptoms of the viral disease were unusual, with acute abdominal involvement. Our patient's course was complicated by diffuse skin rash and ileal ischemia. Our patient died of refractory shock and multi-organ failure. Skin, ileum and colon histology was consistent with an acute apoptosis combined with an increased cellular regeneration. Conclusions Influenza may be complicated by severe forms of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. To ensure early recognition and treatment, physicians should be aware of the possible induction of the syndrome by the novel H1N1 variant. The rapid occurrence of a multi-organ involvement with evocative biological features of macrophage activation should alert clinicians.

  12. Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries

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    Putthasri Weerasak

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. Methods The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. Results The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission

  13. Gauging U.S. Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to respond to pandemic influenza using a threat- and efficacy-based assessment framework.

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    Daniel J Barnett

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medical Services workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic is essential to healthcare system surge amidst a global threat. Application of Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM has shown utility for revealing influences of perceived threat and efficacy on non-EMS public health providers' willingness to respond in an influenza pandemic. We thus propose using an EPPM-informed assessment of EMS workers' perspectives toward fulfilling their influenza pandemic response roles.We administered an EPPM-informed snapshot survey about attitudes and beliefs toward pandemic influenza response, to a nationally representative, stratified random sample of 1,537 U.S. EMS workers from May-June 2009 (overall response rate: 49%. Of the 586 respondents who met inclusion criteria (currently active EMS providers in primarily EMS response roles, 12% indicated they would not voluntarily report to duty in a pandemic influenza emergency if asked, 7% if required. A majority (52% indicated their unwillingness to report to work if risk of disease transmission to family existed. Confidence in personal safety at work (OR = 3.3 and a high threat/high efficacy ("concerned and confident" EPPM profile (OR = 4.7 distinguished those who were more likely to voluntarily report to duty. Although 96% of EMS workers indicated that they would probably or definitely report to work if they were guaranteed a pandemic influenza vaccine, only 59% had received an influenza immunization in the preceding 12 months.EMS workers' response willingness gaps pose a substantial challenge to prehospital surge capacity in an influenza pandemic. "Concerned and confident" EMS workers are more than four times as likely to fulfill pandemic influenza response expectations. Confidence in workplace safety is a positively influential modifier of their response willingness. These findings can inform insights into interventions for enhancing EMS workers' willingness to respond

  14. Viral shedding in children infected by pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus

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    Fossali Emilio

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to investigate viral shedding in otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza in order to define how long children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza shed the virus, and also plan adequate measures to control the spread of the disease within households. Findings In 74 otherwise healthy children with pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza, nasopharyngeal swabs were taken for virus detection upon hospital admission and every two days until negative. The nasopharyngeal swabs of all of the children were positive for pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus in the first three days after the onset of infection, and only 21.6% and 13.5% remained positive after respectively 11 and 15 days. No child was positive after more than 15 days. Viral load also decreased over time, and was not associated with patient age or the risk of pneumonia. Those who shed the virus for ≥ 9 days were not at any increased risk of suffering from more severe disease in comparison with those who shed the virus for a shorter time, but their households experienced a significantly higher number of influenza-like illness during the two weeks after the onset of the initial disease (72.3% vs 41.4%; p Conclusions Regardless of their age, healthy children can shed pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus for up to two weeks after illness onset, and the households of the children who shed the virus for ≥ 9 days suffered a higher number of influenza-like illness in the two weeks following the onset of the first disease. This could suggest that when a completely unknown influenza virus is circulating, isolation period of infected children has to be longer than the 7 days recommended for the infections due to seasonal influenza viruses.

  15. Novel pandemic influenza A (H1N1) and community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia.

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    Chung, Doo Ryeon; Huh, Kyungmin

    2015-02-01

    Postinfluenza bacterial pneumonia is a leading cause of influenza-associated death, and Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae have been important pathogens that have caused pneumonia since the influenza pandemic in 1919. Emergence of novel influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 and the concomitant global spread of community-associated methicillin-resistant S. aureus (CA-MRSA) have led to increasing prevalence of CA-MRSA pneumonia following influenza infection. Such an epidemiologic change poses a therapeutic challenge due to a high risk of inappropriate empiric antimicrobial therapy and poor clinical outcomes. Early diagnosis and initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy for post-influenza bacterial pneumonia have become even more important in the era of CA-MRSA. Therefore, novel molecular diagnostic techniques should be applied to more readily diagnose MRSA pneumonia.

  16. H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Italy Revisited: Has the Willingness to Get Vaccinated Suffered in the Long Run?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludolph, Ramona; Nobile, Marta; Hartung, Uwe; Castaldi, Silvana; Schulz, Peter J

    2015-07-16

    The aim of the study is to assess the long-term secondary effects of personal experience with the H1N1 pandemic of 2009/2010 and the perception of the institutional reaction to it on Italians' willingness to get vaccinated in case of a novel influenza pandemic. We conducted 140 face-to-face interviews in the Registry Office of the Municipality of Milan, Italy, from October to December 2012. Willingness to get vaccinated during a novel influenza pandemic was best predicted by having been vaccinated against the seasonal flu in the past (OR=5.18; 95%CI: 1.40 to 19.13) and fear of losing one's life in case of an infection with H1N1 (OR=4.09; 95%CI: 1.68 to 9.97). It was unaffected by the assessment of institutional performance. The findings of this study do not point to long-term secondary effects of the institutional handling of the H1N1 pandemic. The results highlight the fact that behavioural intention is not the same as behaviour, and that the former cannot simply be taken as an indicator of the latter. Significance for public healthWhereas influenza pandemics occurred rather rarely in the last centuries, their frequency can be expected to increase in the future due to the enhanced globalisation and still raising importance of air travelling. Recent examples (Ebola, H1N1, SARS, avian influenza) demonstrate that initially local disease outbreaks often become worldwide health threats of international concern. National and international health authorities are consequently urged to present preparedness plans on how to manage such health crises. However, their success highly depends on their acceptance by the public. To ensure the public compliance with recommended actions, effective communication is needed. Since communication is most successful when it meets the needs of the target audience, a full understanding of the audience is crucial. This study can help public health experts to better understand the variables determining people's willingness to get vaccinated

  17. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

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    Lam Elson HY

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99% would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less

  18. Public Health Policy and Experience of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Pune, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purohit, Vidula; Kudale, Abhay; Sundaram, Neisha; Joseph, Saju; Schaetti, Christian; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2017-05-09

    Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness. Global, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune. In the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune. The World Health Organization's (WHO's) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health

  19. Pandemic influenza (A/H1N1 vaccine uptake among French private general practitioners: a cross sectional study in 2010.

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    Pierre Verger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In July, 2009, French health authorities, like those in many other countries, decided to embark on a mass vaccination campaign against the pandemic A(H1N1 influenza. Private general practitioners (GPs were not involved in this campaign. We studied GPs' pandemic vaccine (pvaccine uptake, quantified the relative contribution of its potential explanatory factors and studied whether their own vaccination choice was correlated with their recommendations to patients about pvaccination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this cross-sectional telephone survey, professional investigators interviewed an existing panel of randomly selected private GPs (N = 1431; response rate at inclusion in the panel: 36.8%; participation rate in the survey: 100%. The main outcome variable was GPs' own pvaccine uptake. We used an averaging multi-model approach to quantify the relative contribution of factors associated with their vaccination. The pvaccine uptake rate was 61% (95%CI = 58.3-63.3. Four independent factors contributed the most to this rate (partial Nagelkerke's R(2: history of previous vaccination against seasonal influenza (14.5%, perception of risks and efficacy of the pvaccine (10.8%, opinions regarding the organization of the vaccination campaign (7.1%, and perception of the pandemic's severity (5.2%. Overall, 71.3% (95%CI = 69.0-73.6 of the participants recommended pvaccination to young adults at risk and 40.1% (95%CI = 37.6-42.7 to other young adults. GPs' own pvaccination was strongly predictive of their recommendation to both young adults at risk (OR = 9.6; 95%CI = 7.2-12.6 and those not at risk (OR = 8.5; 95%CI = 6.4-11.4. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that around 60% of French private GPs followed French authorities' recommendations about vaccination of health care professionals against the A(H1N1 influenza. They pinpoint priority levers for improving preparedness for future influenza pandemics. Besides encouraging GPs

  20. Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; González-León, Margot; Aburto, Víctor H Borja

    2012-04-20

    Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations, analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico. We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a

  1. Impact of antiviral treatment and hospital admission delay on risk of death associated with 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chowell Gerardo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5], analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics. In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico. Methods We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the

  2. Integrated network analysis reveals a novel role for the cell cycle in 2009 pandemic influenza virus-induced inflammation in macaque lungs

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    Shoemaker Jason E

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Annually, influenza A viruses circulate the world causing wide-spread sickness, economic loss, and death. One way to better defend against influenza virus-induced disease may be to develop novel host-based therapies, targeted at mitigating viral pathogenesis through the management of virus-dysregulated host functions. However, mechanisms that govern aberrant host responses to influenza virus infection remain incompletely understood. We